WorldWideScience

Sample records for future warmer world

  1. Composition and carbon dynamics of forests in northeastern North America in a future, warmer world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohan, J.E.; Georgia Univ., Athens, GA; Cox, R.M.; Iverson, L.R.

    2009-01-01

    This article provided a synthesis of modelling and scientific DNA which indicated that tree migrations since the last glaciation period were slower than current and predicted climatic warming trends. Air pollution is now offsetting carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) gains in biomass and will predispose many trees to other stresses. Nitrogen and sulfate deposition in the northeastern United States is changing forest nutrient availability, and is reducing the reproductive success and frost hardiness of some species. Acid deposition is also causing physical damage to leaves and changing the behaviour of pests and diseases. It is expected that the interacting stresses will cause declines in tree populations as well as ecosystem disturbances during the transition to warmer climates. Modelling studies have predicted that the warmer climates will increase habitats for most tree species in the northeastern United States. Species with declining habitats in the United States and Canada may migrate northwards. Paleo-ecological studies suggest that local edaphic factors will negatively impact current and future recruitment successes, but may also combine with climatic effect to cause sudden large shifts in vegetation. 83 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

  2. Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.

    2017-12-01

    During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO2 rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather than the return to a wetter state. What makes future projections different from these past warm climates? Here, we investigate this question by comparing a typical quadrupling-of-CO2 experiment with a simulation driven by sea-surface temperatures closely resembling available reconstructions for the early Pliocene. Based on these two experiments and a suite of other perturbed climate simulations, we argue that this puzzle is explained by weaker atmospheric circulation in response to the different ocean surface temperature patterns of the Pliocene, specifically reduced meridional and zonal temperature gradients. Thus, our results highlight that accurately predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming requires predicting not only how global mean temperature responds to elevated CO2 forcing (climate sensitivity) but also accurately quantifying how meridional sea-surface temperature patterns will change (structural climate sensitivity).

  3. Budgets and balances in a warmer world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boer, G.J.

    1994-01-01

    Potential climate warming is studied by performing the open-quotes first standard CO2 experimentclose quotes which consists of coupling a comparatively sophisticated atmospheric general circulation model to a thermodynamically, but not dynamically, active ocean/ice model. The differences in the equilibrium climates simulated for the current or 1xCO2 case and for the new equilibrium climate that results with twice that amount of CO2 are investigated. Results indicate that although the dynamical consequences of greenhouse gas warming are not as marked nor statistically significant as the thermodynamical changes, they display an intriguing rearrangement of flow structures which take advantage of the altered thermodynamic structures in the atmosphere that occur. Since the overall forcing does not change appreciably, the poleward transport of energy remains the same but this is accomplished by an increase in latent energy transport associated with a warmer and moister lower troposphere which balances a decrease in internal and potential energy transport associated with weaker temperature gradients in this region

  4. More Intense Mega Heat Waves in the Warmer World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, G.; Robinson, D. A.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, changes in the occurrences of heat waves on the globe since the mid- 20th century and the synoptic characteristics of mega heat waves at regional scales in the warmer climate are examined. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis surface data show that there have been no obvious linear changes in the heat wave frequencies at the continental scales since the mid-20th century, but amplified interdecadal variations led to unprecedented intense heat waves in the recent decades at the regional scales. Such mega heat waves have been more frequently observed in the poleward subtropical climate belts as well as in the interior region of continents. According to the analyses of upper tropospheric data, the occurrences of more intense mega heat waves since the late 20th century may be associated with the expansion of subtropical high pressures. These results suggest that populous cities near the subtropical climate zones should provide proactive mega heat wave warning systems for residents due to their vulnerability to the sudden attack of human lives harvest by mega heat waves in the warmer 21st century.

  5. Are all temperate lakes eutrophying in a warmer world?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paltsev, A.; Creed, I. F.

    2017-12-01

    Freshwater lakes are at risk of eutrophication due to climate change and intensification of human activities on the planet. In relatively undisturbed areas of the temperate forest biome, lakes are "sentinels" of the effects of rising temperatures. We hypothesise that rising temperatures are driving a shift from nutrient-poor oligotrophic states to nutrient-rich eutrophic states. To test this hypothesis, we examined a time series of satellite based chlorophyll-a (a proxy of algal biomass) of 12,000+ lakes over 30 years in the Canadian portion of the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. From the time series, non-stationary trends (detected by Mann-Kendall analysis) and stationary cycles (revealed through Morlet wavelet analysis) were removed, and the standard deviation (SD) of the remaining residuals was used as an indicator of lake stability. Four classes of lake stability were identified: (1) stable (SD is consistently low); (2) destabilizing (SD increases over time); (3) unstable (SD is consistently high); and (4) stabilizing lakes (SD decreases over time). Stable lakes were either oligotrophic or eutrophic indicating the presence of two stable states in the region. Destabilizing lakes were shifting from oligotrophic to lakes with a higher trophic status (indicating eutrophication), unstable lakes were mostly mesotrophic, and stabilizing lakes were shifting from eutrophic to the lakes with lower trophic status (indicating oligotrophication). In contrast to common expectations, while many lakes (2142) were shifting from oligotrophic to eutrophic states, more lakes (3199) were showing the opposite trend and shifting from eutrophic to oligotrophic states. This finding reveals a complexity of lake responses to rising temperatures and the need to improve understanding of why some lakes shift while others do not. Future work is focused on exploring the interactive effects of global, regional, and local drivers of lake trophic states.

  6. Extreme Temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanigachalam, A.; Achutarao, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    n the summer of 2015 a heat wave claimed more than 2500 lives of southeastern India. Wehner et al., (2016) showed that the risk of this heat wave has increased due to anthropogenic forcings. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, surface temperature over India shows a rate of increase of about 0.2°C/decade during the 21st Century (Basha et al., 2017). The extreme temperatures that have occurred in the recent past and further increases projected for the future have implications for human health and productivity. In light of the Paris accords, future stabilization of global mean temperature at the 1.5°C above pre-industrial aspirational target and the "not to be exceeded" 2°C target (still higher than current temperatures), the possibility of increases in extreme temperatures under these scenarios is very real. In this study we seek to understand the nature of extreme temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C worlds in comparison to the current climate. We make use of model output contributed under the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project (HAPPI; Mitchell et al., 2017). The HAPPI database contains output from many atmospheric GCMs with multiple simulations ( 100 each) of historical (2005-2015), 1.5°C warmer decade, and 2°C warmer decade. The large number of ensembles provides an opportunity to study the extremes in temperature that occur over India and how they may change. In order to provide insights into the future comparable against current operational practices, we make use of definitions of "hot days", "heat waves", and "severe heat waves" used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). We compare modelled data (and bias corrected model output where available) against observed daily temperatures from the IMD gridded (1°x1°) dataset available for 1951-2015 as also circulation features that lead to such events by comparing against reanalysis products. We also investigate the timing of such events in the future scenarios

  7. World Energy Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forbes, A.; Van der Linde, C.; Nicola, S.

    2009-01-01

    In the section World Energy Future of this magazine two articles, two interviews and one column are presented. The article 'A green example to the world' refers briefly to the second World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, which was held from 18-21 January, 2009. The second article, 'Green Utopia in the desert' attention is paid to the Abu Dhabi government-driven Masdar Initiative. The two interviews concern an interview with BP Alternative Energy ceo Vivienne Cox, and an interview with the founder and CEO of New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich. The column ('An efficient response') focuses on the impact of the economic crisis on energy policy

  8. Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

  9. Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 °C warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosking, J. Scott; MacLeod, D.; Phillips, T.; Holmes, C. R.; Watson, P.; Shuckburgh, E. F.; Mitchell, D.

    2018-05-01

    Global climate model simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project were used to assess how wind power generation over Europe would change in a future world where global temperatures reach 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Comparing recent historical (2006–2015) and future 1.5 °C forcing experiments highlights that the climate models demonstrate a northward shift in the Atlantic jet, leading to a significant (p < 0.01) increase in surface winds over the UK and Northern Europe and a significant (p < 0.05) reduction over Southern Europe. We use a wind turbine power model to transform daily near-surface (10 m) wind speeds into daily wind power output, accounting for sub-daily variability, the height of the turbine, and power losses due to transmission and distribution of electricity. To reduce regional model biases we use bias-corrected 10 m wind speeds. We see an increase in power generation potential over much of Europe, with the greatest increase in load factor over the UK of around four percentage points. Increases in variability are seen over much of central and northern Europe with the largest seasonal change in summer. Focusing on the UK, we find that wind energy production during spring and autumn under 1.5 °C forcing would become as productive as it is currently during the peak winter season. Similarly, summer winds would increase driving up wind generation to resemble levels currently seen in spring and autumn. We conclude that the potential for wind energy in Northern Europe may be greater than has been previously assumed, with likely increases even in a 1.5 °C warmer world. While there is the potential for Southern Europe to see a reduction in their wind resource, these decreases are likely to be negligible.

  10. World Energy Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forbes, A.; Van der Linde, C.; Nicola, S.

    2009-03-15

    In the section World Energy Future of this magazine two articles, two interviews and one column are presented. The article 'A green example to the world' refers briefly to the second World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, which was held from 18-21 January, 2009. The second article, 'Green Utopia in the desert' attention is paid to the Abu Dhabi government-driven Masdar Initiative. The two interviews concern an interview with BP Alternative Energy ceo Vivienne Cox, and an interview with the founder and CEO of New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich. The column ('An efficient response') focuses on the impact of the economic crisis on energy policy.

  11. Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baatsen, Michiel; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Van Delden, Aarnout J.; de Vries, Hylke

    2015-08-01

    Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks.

  12. Hydrological risks of a 2.0 oC warmer world: Assessing infrastructure exposure to the Paris Agreement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paltan, H.; Allen, M. R.; Haustein, K.; Dadson, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) in its Paris Agreement in December 2015 agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2.0 °C above pre- industrial levels. Nonetheless it is not yet clear how hydrological risks would change when this threshold is reached. In consequence, this may have important repercussions to existent or planned infrastructure as their functioning and the service they provide may be undermined if they do not adapt to shifts in water variability and, thus compromising global water security. In this study, we estimate the way in which hydrological risks will differ in a world 2 °C warmer. We used multi-ensembles outputs from 4 general circulation models (AOGCMs) participating in the HAPPI experimental protocol to generate global future river flows. From here we calculate extreme value probabilistics to calculate the increase in the frequency of the 100-year return period flow. Globally, we find that areas such as China and South Asia will be severly affecteed. Additional important changes are detected in Eastern Europe and in the area sorrounding the Gulf of California. Lastly, as a case study we show the implications of this climate target in the hydropower and transport infrastructure of Myanmar. We find that about 40% of mapped hydropower sites are in areas where the historical 100-year return period flow will significantly increase their frequency. We also find that about 30% of the roads and about 35% of the rail network of Myanmar are importantly exposed to such increases. We expect that this study is an initial step to analyse the propagation of hydrological risk associated with the Paris outcome; and thus, offer a tool to detect vulnerable population groups and economic sectors.

  13. Tropical cyclones in a stabilized 1.5 and 2 degree warmer world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.; Loring, B.; Krishnan, H.

    2017-12-01

    We present an ensemble of very high resolution global climate model simulations of a stabilized 1.5oC and 2oC warmer climate as envisioned by the Paris COP21 agreement. The resolution of this global climate model (25km) permits simulated tropical cyclones up to Category Five on the Saffir-Simpson scale Projected changes in tropical cyclones are significant. Tropical cyclones in the two stabilization scenarios are less frequent but more intense than in simulations of the present. Output data from these simulations is freely available to all interested parties and should prove a useful resource to those interested in studying the impacts of stabilized global warming.

  14. Effects of a future warmer ocean on the coexisting copepods Calanus finmarchicus and C. glacialis in Disko Bay, Western Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjellerup, Sanne; Dünweber, Michael; Swalethorp, Rasmus

    2012-01-01

    The effects of temperature and food was examined for Calanus finmarchicus and C. glacialis during 3 phases of the phytoplankton spring bloom in Disko Bay, western Greenland. The 2 species were collected during pre-bloom, bloom, and post-bloom and exposed to temperatures from 0 to 10°C, combined...... production. Our results suggest that a future warmer ocean will reduce the advantage of early spawning by C. glacialis and that C. finmarchicus will become increasingly prevalent...

  15. Tropical forest carbon balance in a warmer world: a critical review spanning microbial- to ecosystem-scale processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Tana E.; Cavaleri, Molly A.; Reed, Sasha C.

    2012-01-01

    , heterotrophic versus autotrophic respiration, thermal acclimation versus substrate limitation of plant and microbial communities, below-ground C allocation, species composition (plant and microbial), and the hydraulic architecture of roots. Whether or not tropical forests will become a source or a sink of C in a warmer world remains highly uncertain. Given the importance of these ecosystems to the global C budget, resolving this uncertainty is a primary research priority.

  16. Turn down the heat: why a 4 deg. C warmer world must be avoided

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Hare, William; Serdeczny, Olivia; Adams, Sophie; Coumou, Dim; Frieler, Katja; Martin, Maria; Otto, Ilona M.; Perrette, Mahe; Robinson, Alexander; Rocha, Marcia; Schaeffer, Michiel; Schewe, Jacob; Wang, Xiaoxi; Warszawski, Lila; Durand, Francis

    2012-11-01

    This paper summarizes in French the content of a Report for the World Bank made by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics. This report provides a snapshot of recent scientific literature (about 190 papers) and new analyses of likely impacts and risks that would be associated with a 4 deg. Celsius warming within this century. It is a rigorous attempt to outline a range of risks, focusing on developing countries and especially the poor. A 4 deg. C world would be one of unprecedented heat waves, severe drought, and major floods in many regions, with serious impacts on ecosystems and associated services. But with action, a 4 deg. C world can be avoided and we can likely hold warming below 2 deg. C. This report is not a comprehensive scientific assessment, as will be forthcoming from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013-14 in its fifth assessment report. It is focused on developing countries, while recognizing that developed countries are also vulnerable and at serious risk of major damages from climate change. A series of recent extreme events worldwide continue to highlight the vulnerability of not only the developing world but even wealthy industrialized countries. No nation will be immune to the impacts of climate change. However, the distribution of impacts is likely to be inherently unequal and tilted against many of the world's poorest regions, which have the least economic, institutional, scientific, and technical capacity to cope and adapt

  17. A 2 °C warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elkin, Ché; Gutiérrez, Alvaro G; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Manusch, Corina; Temperli, Christian; Rasche, Livia; Bugmann, Harald

    2013-06-01

    Limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 °C is the objective of international efforts aimed at avoiding dangerous climate impacts. However, the regional response of terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide under such a scenario are largely unknown. We focus on mountain forests in the European Alps and evaluate how a range of ecosystem services (ES) are projected to be impacted in a 2 °C warmer world, using four novel regional climate scenarios. We employ three complementary forest models to assess a wide range of ES in two climatically contrasting case study regions. Within each climate scenario we evaluate if and when ES will deviate beyond status quo boundaries that are based on current system variability. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of mountain forest ES to a 2 °C warmer world depends heavily on the current climatic conditions of a region, the strong elevation gradients within a region, and the specific ES in question. Our simulations project that large negative impacts will occur at low and intermediate elevations in initially warm-dry regions, where relatively small climatic shifts result in negative drought-related impacts on forest ES. In contrast, at higher elevations, and in regions that are initially cool-wet, forest ES will be comparatively resistant to a 2 °C warmer world. We also found considerable variation in the vulnerability of forest ES to climate change, with some services such as protection against rockfall and avalanches being sensitive to 2 °C global climate change, but other services such as carbon storage being reasonably resistant. Although our results indicate a heterogeneous response of mountain forest ES to climate change, the projected substantial reduction of some forest ES in dry regions suggests that a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature cannot be seen as a universally 'safe' boundary for the maintenance of mountain forest ES. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  18. Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Joshua F.; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röckmann, Thomas; Aerts, Rien; Blauw, Luke G.; Egger, Matthias; Jetten, Mike S. M.; de Jong, Anniek E. E.; Meisel, Ove H.; Rasigraf, Olivia; Slomp, Caroline P.; in't Zandt, Michiel H.; Dolman, A. J.

    2018-03-01

    Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands, marine and freshwater systems, permafrost, and methane hydrates, through shifts in temperature, hydrology, vegetation, landscape disturbance, and sea level rise. Increased CH4 emissions from these systems would in turn induce further climate change, resulting in a positive climate feedback. Here we synthesize biological, geochemical, and physically focused CH4 climate feedback literature, bringing together the key findings of these disciplines. We discuss environment-specific feedback processes, including the microbial, physical, and geochemical interlinkages and the timescales on which they operate, and present the current state of knowledge of CH4 climate feedbacks in the immediate and distant future. The important linkages between microbial activity and climate warming are discussed with the aim to better constrain the sensitivity of the CH4 cycle to future climate predictions. We determine that wetlands will form the majority of the CH4 climate feedback up to 2100. Beyond this timescale, CH4 emissions from marine and freshwater systems and permafrost environments could become more important. Significant CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from the dissociation of methane hydrates are not expected in the near future. Our key findings highlight the importance of quantifying whether CH4 consumption can counterbalance CH4 production under future climate scenarios.

  19. The effect of the pathway to a two degrees warmer world on the regional temperature change of Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathrine Fox Maule

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate if the pathway to reach a 2 degree warmer world influences the regional climate in Europe at the time of 2 degrees of global warming above the pre-industrial level. We have investigated this using climate change data from ensembles of both Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models. We compare the change of regional temperature in Europe to the global temperature change for different emission scenarios, following the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, to see if the pathway has any influence. We find that there is a small but significant difference in the regional temperature change, but the effect is small compared to internal variability on the timescales involved in reaching +2 degrees for the investigated emission scenarios. From an adaptation point of view, reaching +2 degrees as slowly as possible will obviously allow for a longer time period to implement adaptation measures to mitigate the effect of climate change.

  20. Methane feedbacks to the global climate system in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dean, Joshua F.; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röckmann, Thomas; Aerts, Rien; Blauw, Luke G.; Egger, Matthias; Jetten, Mike S.M.; de Jong, Anniek E.E.; Meisel, Ove H.; Rasigraf, Olivia; Slomp, Caroline P.; in't Zandt, Michiel H.; Dolman, A. J.

    Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands,

  1. Six Degrees. Our Future on a Hotter Planet; Zes graden. Onze toekomst op een warmere planeet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lynas, M.

    2008-07-01

    This grade-by-grade guide describes the effects of global warming at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6C. The author presents scientific scenarios in a row. How can we imagine a warmer climate? Already 1C warming will be a plague for granaries in the USA and tropical cyclones will happen in the Mediterranean Sea. Beyond 2C global warming is irreversible. 3C will burn the Amazon area. Then methane will burst out of the Siberian permafrost and later from the deep sea. At 6C we will be in hell. So we must prevent global warming above 2C. Now we are already at 0.75 C and the thermal inertia of the planet will double that anyway. Serious action is absolutely required. Action that goes far beyond any current policy. [Dutch] Deze graad-voor-graad-gids beschrijft de gevolgen van de opwarming bij 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 en 6C. De auteur zet als eerste alle wetenschappelijke scenario's op een rij. Wat moeten we ons voorstellen bij een warmer klimaat? Al bij 1C teisteren extreme droogtes graanschuur Amerika en verschijnen tropische orkanen in de Middellandse Zee. Voorbij de 2C wordt de opwarming onomkeerbaar. Bij 3C verbrandt het Amazonegebied. Daarna barst methaan uit de Siberische permafrost en later uit de diepzee. Bij 6C betreden we de hel. We moeten dus voorkomen dat de opwarming boven de 2C uitkomt. Nu zitten we al op 0,75C en de thermische traagheid van de planeet gaat dat sowieso nog verdubbelen. Drastische actie is absoluut vereist. Actie die veel verder gaat dan alle huidige beleid.

  2. Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niederdrenk, Anne Laura; Notz, Dirk

    2018-02-01

    We examine the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice in scenarios with limited future global warming. To do so, we analyze two sets of observational records that cover the observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice loss per degree of global warming. The observations are combined with 100 simulations of historical and future climate evolution from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble. Based on the high-sensitivity observations, we find that Arctic September sea ice is lost with low probability (P≈ 10%) for global warming of +1.5°C above preindustrial levels and with very high probability (P> 99%) for global warming of +2°C above preindustrial levels. For the low-sensitivity observations, September sea ice is extremely unlikely to disappear for +1.5°C warming (P≪ 1%) and has low likelihood (P≈ 10%) to disappear even for +2°C global warming. For March, both observational records suggest a loss of 15% to 20% of Arctic sea ice area for 1.5°C to 2°C global warming.

  3. Designing urban spaces and buildings to improve sustainability and quality of life in a warmer world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Claire; Levermore, Geoff

    2008-01-01

    It is in cities that the negative impacts of a warming climate will be felt most strongly. The summer time comfort and well-being of the urban population will become increasingly compromised under future scenarios for climate change and urbanisation. In contrast to rural areas, where night-time relief from high daytime temperatures occurs as heat is lost to the sky, the city environment stores and traps heat and offers little respite from high temperatures. This urban heat island effect is responsible for temperature differences of up to 7 deg. C between cities and the country in the UK. We already have experience of the potential hazards of these higher temperatures. The majority of heat-related fatalities during the summer of 2003 were in urban areas. This means that the cooling of the urban environment is a high priority for urban planners and designers. Proven ways of doing this include altering the urban microclimate by modifying its heat absorption and emission, for example through urban greening, the use of high-reflectivity materials, and by increasing openness to allow cooling winds. Buildings themselves can also deliver improved comfort and higher levels of sustainability by taking advantage of exemplary facade, glazing and ventilation designs. In addition, changed behaviour by building occupants can help keep urban areas cool. The technology to reduce the future vulnerability of city dwellers to thermal discomfort is already largely in existence. But there is a need for complementary policy and planning commitments to manage its implementation, especially in existing buildings and urban areas

  4. Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing

    2018-03-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.

  5. Future wheat yields in Western Australia under a warmer and drier climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farre, Imma; Foster, Ian; Charles, Steve

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Climate change projections for the mid 21st century for southern Western Australia indicate an increase in temperatures, a decrease in rainfall and higher C02 concentrations. These changes could have adverse impacts on some agricultural systems, but they may also offer new opportunities (i.e. in areas where the risk of waterlogging may be reduced). In this paper we studied the potential impacts of climate change on wheat production by combining three modelling systems. Daily climate data for current and future conditions from the CCAM climate model was statistically downscaled to individual locations in the Western Australia wheatbelt. This climate data was then input to the APSIM-Wheat simulation model to evaluate yields and phenology under current and future climate for several soil types. The aim was to investigate the usefulness of such a modelling cascade in defining key risks to wheat cropping from projected climate change. In an earlier stage of the project, we compared climate simulation from several climate models (CSIRO Mk3, CCAM, ECHAM and HADCM), and selected the CCAM model as best representing the climate of southern Western Australia. This was used for a more detailed study of the impacts on wheat cropping. The APSIM model simulates crop development, yield, water uptake and nitrogen accumulation in response to temperature, radiation, C02 level, water and nitrogen supply. It offers a framework for investigating interactions and testing some simple adaptation options. The CCAM model simulated total annual rainfall reductions of 5-11% for 2050 across the locations studied (consistent with other model projections). Total annual rainfall reductions tended to be higher in the high-rainfall locations than in the low- or medium-rainfall locations. The highest seasonal rainfall reduction was predicted for April-June, resulting in later sowing opportunities and decreasing expected yields. The impacts of climate change varied depending on

  6. The acute thermal respiratory response is unique among species in a guild of larval anuran amphibians-Implications for energy economy in a warmer future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Christopher L; Crandall, Erin A

    2018-03-15

    Climate change is bringing about increased temperatures of amphibian habitats throughout the world, where ectothermic larvae will experience elevated respiratory (metabolic) energy demands. We compared the acute, thermal respiratory response ("TRR") of four species of sympatric larval amphibians (Lithobates sphenocephalus, L. catesbeianus, Scaphiopus holbrookii, and Hyla chrysoscelis) to determine species-specific differences in the rate at which metabolic energy requirements increase with temperature. The TRR, the slope of the relationship between respiration rate and temperature within critical thermal limits, varied significantly among species such that the absolute, per capita change in metabolic energy requirement as temperature increased was greater for L. sphenocephalus and L. catesbeianus than for H. chrysoscelis and S. holbrookii. This was also reflected in the temperature coefficients (Q 10,18.5-25.5 ), which ranged from 1.77 (S. holbrookii) to 2.70 (L. sphenocephalus) for per capita respiration rates. Our results suggest that L. sphenocephalus and L. catesbeianus will experience a more rapid increase in energetic requirements as temperature increases relative to the other species, possibly magnifying their influences on the resource pool. There is a critical paucity of information on the metabolic responses of most larval amphibians across a range of temperatures, despite that this relationship dictates the magnitude of the priority investment of assimilated energy in respiration, thus shaping the energetic economy of the individual. A broader knowledge of species-specific TRRs, combined with research to determine thermal acclimatory or adaptive potentials over chronic time scales, will provide a framework for evaluating whether asymmetric, climate-mediated differences in energetic demands among species could ultimately influence larval amphibian ecology in a warmer future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. The Mediterranean Basin and Southern Europe in a warmer world: what can we learn from the past?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel eGuiot

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Since the late-nineteenth century, surface temperatures have non-uniformly increased worldwide. The repercussion of the global warming in drylands, such as in the Mediterranean, may become a main source of concern in a near future, as it is often accompanied by increased droughts, that will severely degrade water supply and quality. History shows that access to water resources has always presented a challenge for societies around the Mediterranean throughout the Holocene (roughly the last 10,000 years. Repeatedly, adverse climate shifts seem to have interacted with social, economic and political variables, exacerbating vulnerabilities in drier regions. We present a reconstruction of the Holocene climate in the Mediterranean Basin using an innovative method based on pollen data and vegetation modeling. The method consists in calculating the inputs of the vegetation model so that the outputs fit the pollen data, using a Bayesian framework. This model inversion is particularly suited to deal with increasing dissimilarities between past millennia and the last century, especially due to a direct effect of CO2 on vegetation. The comparison of fardistant past and last century shows that the intensity of century-scale precipitation fall, amplified by higher temperatures and then evapotranspiration, appears to be unmatched over the last 10,000 years and the comparison between west and east precipitation anomalies show a clear see-saw effect through all the Holocene, in particular during the dry episodes of Near and Middle East. As a consequence that Tthe recent climatic change seems thento have been unprecedented during the last 10,000 years in the Mediterranean Basin,.over the next few decades, Mediterranean societies will likely be more critically vulnerable to climate change, than at any dry period of the past. We show also that adverse climate shifts are often correlated with the decline or collapse of Mediterranean civiliszations, particularly in

  8. Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Liu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5 climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia. Less rural populations (−217.7 ± 79.2 million and −216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk

  9. A Spatio-Temporal Model of Phenotypic Evolution in the Atlantic Silverside (Menidia menidia) and Its Implications for Size-Selective Fishing in a Warmer World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sbrocco, E. J.

    2016-02-01

    A pervasive phenotypic pattern observed across marine fishes is that vertebral number increases with latitude. Jordan's Rule, as it is known, holds true both within and across species, and like other ecogeographic principles (e.g., Bergmann's Rule), it is presumed to be an adaptive response to latitudinal gradients in temperature. As such, future ocean warming is expected to impact not only the geographic range limits of marine fishes that conform to Jordan's Rule, but also their phenotype, with warmer waters selecting for fish with fewer vertebrae at any given latitude. Here I present a model of phenotypic evolution over space and time for the Atlantic silverside (Menidia menidia), a common marine fish found in coastal waters along the western North Atlantic. This species has long served as a model organism for the study of fisheries-induced selection and exhibits numerous latitudinal clines in phenotypic and life-history traits, including vertebral number. Common garden experiments have shown that vertebral number is genetically determined in this species, but correlative models of observed vertebral counts and climate reveal that SST is the single strongest predictor of phenotype, even after accounting for gene flow. This result indicates that natural selection is responsible for maintaining vertebral clines in the silverside, and allows for the prediction of phenotypic responses to ocean warming. By integrating genetic estimates of population connectivity, species distribution models, and statistical models, I find that by the end of the 21st century, ocean warming will select for silversides with up to 8% fewer vertebrae. Mid-Atlantic populations are the most mal-adapted for future conditions, but may be rescued by migration from small-phenotype southern neighbors or by directional selection. Despite smaller temperature anomalies, the strongest impacts of warming will be felt at both northern and southern edges of the distribution, where genetic rescue from

  10. Hydropower and the world's energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-11-01

    The potential role of hydropower in the context of world-wide demographic growth and increasing demand for energy, and the benefits inherent in hydroelectric power in comparison with other energy options are discussed. Environmental and social impacts, and examples of mitigation measures are reviewed. Recommendations regarding best practices in the future development of hydroelectric power projects proposed

  11. The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Raymo, M.E.; Vacchi, M.; Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Harris, D.L.; Casella, E.; O'Leary, M.J.; Hearty, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128–116 ka) is among the most studied past periods in Earth's history. The climate at that time was warmer than today, primarily due to different orbital conditions, with smaller ice sheets and higher sea-level. Field evidence for MIS 5e sea-level was reported from

  12. How a future energy world could look?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ewert M.

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The future energy system will change significantly within the next years as a result of the following Mega Trends: de-carbonization, urbanization, fast technology development, individualization, glocalization (globalization and localization and changing demographics. Increasing fluctuating renewable production will change the role of non-renewable generation. Distributed energy from renewables and micro generation will change the direction of the energy flow in the electricity grids. Production will not follow demand but demand has to follow production. This future system is enabled by the fast technical development of information and communication technologies which will be present in the entire system. In this paper the results of a comprehensive analysis with different scenarios is summarized. Tools were used like the analysis of policy trends in the European countries, modelling of the European power grid, modelling of the European power markets and the analysis of technology developments with cost reduction potentials. With these tools the interaction of the main actors in the energy markets like conventional generation and renewable generation, grid transport, electricity storage including new storage options from E-Mobility, Power to Gas, Compressed Air Energy storage and demand side management were considered. The potential application of technologies and investments in new energy technologies were analyzed within existing frameworks and markets as well as new business models in new markets with different frameworks. In the paper the over all trend of this analysis is presented by describing a potential future energy world. This world represents only one of numerous options with comparable characteristics.

  13. How a future energy world could look?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewert, M.

    2012-10-01

    The future energy system will change significantly within the next years as a result of the following Mega Trends: de-carbonization, urbanization, fast technology development, individualization, glocalization (globalization and localization) and changing demographics. Increasing fluctuating renewable production will change the role of non-renewable generation. Distributed energy from renewables and micro generation will change the direction of the energy flow in the electricity grids. Production will not follow demand but demand has to follow production. This future system is enabled by the fast technical development of information and communication technologies which will be present in the entire system. In this paper the results of a comprehensive analysis with different scenarios is summarized. Tools were used like the analysis of policy trends in the European countries, modelling of the European power grid, modelling of the European power markets and the analysis of technology developments with cost reduction potentials. With these tools the interaction of the main actors in the energy markets like conventional generation and renewable generation, grid transport, electricity storage including new storage options from E-Mobility, Power to Gas, Compressed Air Energy storage and demand side management were considered. The potential application of technologies and investments in new energy technologies were analyzed within existing frameworks and markets as well as new business models in new markets with different frameworks. In the paper the over all trend of this analysis is presented by describing a potential future energy world. This world represents only one of numerous options with comparable characteristics.

  14. Future petroleum energy resources of the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlbrandt, T.S.

    2002-01-01

    Is the world running out of oil? Where will future oil and gas supplies come from? To help answer these questions, in 2000 the U.S. Geological Survey completed a new world assessment, exclusive of the United States, of the undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources and potential additions to reserves from field growth.2 One hundred and twenty-eight provinces were assessed in a 100 man-year effort from 1995-2000. The assessed provinces included 76 priority provinces containing 95% of the world's discovered oil and gas and an additional 52 "boutique" provinces, many of which may be highly prospective. Total Petroleum Systems (TPS) were identified and described for each of these provinces along with associated Assessment Units (AU) that are the basic units for assessing undiscovered petroleum. The assessment process coupled geologic analysis with a probabilistic methodology to estimate remaining potential. Within the 128 assessed provinces were 159 TPS and 274 AU. For these provinces, the endowment of recoverable oil-which includes cumulative production, remaining reserves, reserve growth, and undiscovered resources-is estimated at about 3 trillion barrels of oil (TBO). The natural gas endowment is estimated at 2.6 trillion barrels of oil equivalent (TBOE). Oil reserves are currently 1.1 TBO; world consumption is about .028 TBO per year. Natural gas reserves are about 0.8 TBOE; world consumption is about 0.014 TBOE per year. Thus, without any additional discoveries of oil, gas or natural gas liquids, we have about 2 TBOE of proved petroleum reserves. Of the oil and gas endowment of about 5.6 TBOE, we estimate that the world has consumed about 1 TBOE, or 18%, leaving about 82% of the endowment to be utilized or found. Half of the world's undiscovered potential is offshore. Arctic basins with about 25% of undiscovered petroleum resources make up the next great frontier. An additional 279 provinces contain some oil and gas and, if considered, would increase the oil

  15. World energy: Building a sustainable future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schipper, L.; Meyers, S.

    1992-04-01

    As the 20th century draws to a close, both individual countries and the world community face challenging problems related to the supply and use energy. These include local and regional environmental impacts, the prospect of global climate and sea level change associated with the greenhouse effect, and threats to international relations in connection with oil supply or nuclear proliferation. For developing countries, the financial cost of providing energy to provide basic needs and fuel economic development pose an additional burden. To assess the magnitude of future problems and the potential effectiveness of response strategies, it is important to understand how and why energy use has changed in the post and where it is heading. This requires study of the activities for which energy is used, and of how people and technology interact to provide the energy services that are desired. The authors and their colleagues have analyzed trends in energy use by sector for most of the world`s major energy-consuming countries. The approach we use considers three key elements in each sector: the level of activity, structural change, and energy intensity, which expresses the amount of energy used for various activities. At a disaggregated level, energy intensity is indicative of energy efficiency. But other factors besides technical efficiency also shape intensity.

  16. World energy: Building a sustainable future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schipper, L.; Meyers, S.

    1992-04-01

    As the 20th century draws to a close, both individual countries and the world community face challenging problems related to the supply and use energy. These include local and regional environmental impacts, the prospect of global climate and sea level change associated with the greenhouse effect, and threats to international relations in connection with oil supply or nuclear proliferation. For developing countries, the financial cost of providing energy to provide basic needs and fuel economic development pose an additional burden. To assess the magnitude of future problems and the potential effectiveness of response strategies, it is important to understand how and why energy use has changed in the post and where it is heading. This requires study of the activities for which energy is used, and of how people and technology interact to provide the energy services that are desired. The authors and their colleagues have analyzed trends in energy use by sector for most of the world's major energy-consuming countries. The approach we use considers three key elements in each sector: the level of activity, structural change, and energy intensity, which expresses the amount of energy used for various activities. At a disaggregated level, energy intensity is indicative of energy efficiency. But other factors besides technical efficiency also shape intensity.

  17. Attribution of the response of the stream flows of the Brahmaputra river basin of a 1.5°C warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saiful Islam, Akm; Mamun Rashid, Md; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Mohammed, Khaled; Uddin Khan, Md Jamal

    2017-04-01

    An increase in global average temperature due to climate change is likely to intensify the global hydrological cycle, which in turn will impact regional water resources. Changes of the frequency and magnitude of the precipitation patterns over a river basin will change the intensity of floods and droughts. It's still an active field of research to determine the impact of climate change on extreme events though the attribution community has been using large climate model ensembles to characterize the low signal to noise problems. After the Paris agreement of 2015, limiting the increase of the global temperature below 1.5°C was emphasized. However, it is not clear the benefits of additional half a degree reduction of temperature below 2°C which needs comprehensive scientific analysis. In this context, a collaborative effort of 39 academic and research institutions around the global is on-going to generate large ensemble simulations of climate projections under a project entitled, 'the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI)'. This study has made an attempt to conduct ensemble simulations of a hydrological model over a transboundary river basin (Brahmaputra) for estimating the changes in future extremes and mean discharges of the river forced by the climate projections generated under the HAPPI project. The Brahmaputra is a transboundary river originating in China and ending in Bangladesh and it is the fourth largest river in the world in terms of average discharge of approximately 20,000 cms. It drains water from approximately 520,000 sq.km. area of China, India, Bhutan and Bangladesh. An estimated 66 million people depend on water from this river for their livelihood through subsistence agriculture and thus any change in the river's discharge due to climate change may have a negative impact on this large population. A decrease in discharge during the dry season when the basin requires water for irrigation systems translates into a

  18. An overview of world future energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkin, F.P.

    1995-01-01

    The World Energy Council Commission's report Energy for Tomorrow's World was published in September 1993. The Commission's three year study of world energy problems involved both bottom-up studies, undertaken by groups of experts in nine main regions of the world, and top-down studies of global aspects. The latter included the preparation of energy demand and supply projections up to the study horizon of 2020, together with a brief look at prospects up to 2100. This Paper is based on the Commission's work. (author)

  19. Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkes, Ben; Defrance, Dimitri; Sultan, Benjamin; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Xuhui

    2018-02-01

    The ability of a region to feed itself in the upcoming decades is an important issue. The West African population is expected to increase significantly in the next 30 years. The responses of crops to short-term climate change is critical to the population and the decision makers tasked with food security. This leads to three questions: how will crop yields change in the near future? What influence will climate change have on crop failures? Which adaptation methods should be employed to ameliorate undesirable changes? An ensemble of near-term climate projections are used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the recent historic period (1986-2005) and a near-term future when global temperatures are 1.5 K above pre-industrial levels to assess the change in yield, yield variability and crop failure rate. Four crop models were used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the historic and future climates. Across the majority of West Africa the maize, millet and sorghum yields are shown to fall. In the regions where yields increase, the variability also increases. This increase in variability increases the likelihood of crop failures, which are defined as yield negative anomalies beyond 1 standard deviation during the historic period. The increasing variability increases the frequency of crop failures across West Africa. The return time of crop failures falls from 8.8, 9.7 and 10.1 years to 5.2, 6.3 and 5.8 years for maize, millet and sorghum respectively. The adoption of heat-resistant cultivars and the use of captured rainwater have been investigated using one crop model as an idealized sensitivity test. The generalized doption of a cultivar resistant to high-temperature stress during flowering is shown to be more beneficial than using rainwater harvesting.

  20. Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial era

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Parkes

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The ability of a region to feed itself in the upcoming decades is an important issue. The West African population is expected to increase significantly in the next 30 years. The responses of crops to short-term climate change is critical to the population and the decision makers tasked with food security. This leads to three questions: how will crop yields change in the near future? What influence will climate change have on crop failures? Which adaptation methods should be employed to ameliorate undesirable changes? An ensemble of near-term climate projections are used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the recent historic period (1986–2005 and a near-term future when global temperatures are 1.5 K above pre-industrial levels to assess the change in yield, yield variability and crop failure rate. Four crop models were used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the historic and future climates. Across the majority of West Africa the maize, millet and sorghum yields are shown to fall. In the regions where yields increase, the variability also increases. This increase in variability increases the likelihood of crop failures, which are defined as yield negative anomalies beyond 1 standard deviation during the historic period. The increasing variability increases the frequency of crop failures across West Africa. The return time of crop failures falls from 8.8, 9.7 and 10.1 years to 5.2, 6.3 and 5.8 years for maize, millet and sorghum respectively. The adoption of heat-resistant cultivars and the use of captured rainwater have been investigated using one crop model as an idealized sensitivity test. The generalized doption of a cultivar resistant to high-temperature stress during flowering is shown to be more beneficial than using rainwater harvesting.

  1. World energy. The facts and the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedley, D.

    1981-01-01

    This book examines how energy [including nuclear energy] is used in the world and how much energy is used; fuel resources - where they are, how long they will last, which countries have the fuel and which countries need it the most; the implications of the energy crisis for transport; the development of synthetics; the impact of conservation; the renewable energy sources and what progress is being made with them. The book forecasts how the world energy economy will have changed by the year 2000 and what is likely to happen beyond. (author)

  2. Greenland in Warm (1.5 °C) and Warmer (RCP 8.5) Worlds: The Influence of the Paris Agreement on Ice Sheet Surface Melting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reusch, D. B.

    2017-12-01

    Melting on the surface of the Greenland ice sheet has been changing dramatically as global air temperatures have increased in recent decades, including melt extent often exceeding the 1981-2010 median through much of the melt season and the onset of intermittent melt moving to earlier in the year. To evaluate potential future change, we investigate surface melting characteristics under both "low" (limited to 1.5 °C) and "high" (RCP 8.5) warming scenarios including analysis of differences in scenario outcomes. Climatologies of melt-relevant variables are developed from two publicly available ensembles of CESM1-CAM5-BGC GCM runs: the 30-member Large Ensemble (CESM LE; Kay et al. 2015) for historical calibration and the RCP 8.5 scenario and the 11-member Low Warming ensemble (CESM LW; Sanderson et al. 2017) for the 1.5 °C scenario. For higher spatial resolution (15 km) and improved polar-centric model physics, we also apply the regional forecast model Polar WRF to decadal subsets (1996-2005; 2071-80) using GCM data archived at sub-daily resolution for boundary conditions. Models were skill-tested against ERA-Interim Reanalysis (ERAI) and AWS observations. For example, CESM LE tends to overpredict both maximum (above-freezing) and minimum daily average surface temperatures compared to observations from the GC-Net Swiss Camp AWS. Ensembles of members differing only by initial conditions allow us to also estimate intramodel uncertainty. Historical (1981-2000) CESM LE spatially averaged July temperatures are 2 +/- 0.2 °C cooler than ERAI while local anomalies in individual members reach up to +/- 2 °C. As expected, Greenland does not escape future (2081-2100) warming (and expectations of more widespread surface melting) even in the LW scenario, but positive changes versus ERAI are mostly coastal (2-3 °C) with the interior showing only minor change (+/- 1 °C). In contrast, under RCP 8.5, the entire ice sheet has warmed by 2-6 °C, or a median increase of 5 °C versus

  3. World coal prices and future energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, J.

    1992-01-01

    The Clean Air Act Amendments will create some important changes in the US domestic steam coal market, including price increases for compliance coal by the year 2000 and price decreases for high-sulfur coal. In the international market, there is likely to be a continuing oversupply which will put a damper on price increases. The paper examines several forecasts for domestic and international coal prices and notes a range of predictions for future oil prices

  4. IBM PC enhances the world's future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Jozelle

    1988-01-01

    Although the purpose of this research is to illustrate the importance of computers to the public, particularly the IBM PC, present examinations will include computers developed before the IBM PC was brought into use. IBM, as well as other computing facilities, began serving the public years ago, and is continuing to find ways to enhance the existence of man. With new developments in supercomputers like the Cray-2, and the recent advances in artificial intelligence programming, the human race is gaining knowledge at a rapid pace. All have benefited from the development of computers in the world; not only have they brought new assets to life, but have made life more and more of a challenge everyday.

  5. Some comments on the future world energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemperiere, F.

    2011-06-01

    The key problem is the possibility to get mid century the energy necessary for the world development at acceptable cost and impacts with 70 or 80% of renewable energies (essentially solar, wind, hydro and biomass). In 2050 a population of 9 billion (7 in sunny countries) will have probably a gross product 3 or 4 times the present one with a reduced energy intensity; the need of energy may be the double of the present one. The Primary Energy is not an useful reference for most 2050 sources: for instance closing a thermal or nuclear plant supplying 1 TWh and generating 2 TWh more by wind, PV or hydraulics double the Final Energy when reducing the Primary Energy. Presently the Primary Energy is close to 150.000 TWh/year and the Final Energy utilisation to 100.000 TWh. But the present need of Final Energy is lower because many utilizations could use other sources reducing the relevant Final Energy: as examples using PV for cooking in Asia or Africa should divide by over 5 the relevant final energy and using electric cars could divide the Final Energy for transports by 3. The need of Final Energy in 2050 may thus be between 150.000 and 200.000 TWh/year. Anyway the final energy used from many sources will be limited, i.e. a total probably between 60 and 90.000 TWh/year, much under needs of 150.000 to 200.000 TWh/year. There is thus a great uncertainly but it is very likely that the gap will be mid century in the range of 100.000 TWh/year, to be met by coal, wind or solar, essentially through electricity. Electricity will be close to 100.000 TWh/year, with 20.000 from hydro, nuclear, oil and gas and the balance: 80.000 from coal, wind and solar. It is possible to get quite all from wind and solar under 4 conditions: - Coal resources could supply up to 50.000 TWh/year along most of the century at a direct cost lower (before 2040) than solar power by few cents per KWh (at least before 2030 or 2040), i.e. a saving which may be possibly 0,5 or 1% of the gross product. This

  6. Mahdi Elmandjra and the Future of the Muslim World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wan Fariza Alyati Wan Zakaria

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The increasing problems and challenges facing the Muslims and the Muslim world nowadays have raised serious concern about the future of the Muslims and the Muslim World among many Muslim scholars. The post-Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979 had always been seen as the landmark of the rising discourses over the future of Islam, Muslims and the Muslim world. Mahdi Elmandjra, a prominent sociologist and futurist, is one of the Muslim scholars who consistently discuss about the issue and urge the Muslims to take responsibility to create a better future in a systematic way and not to fall into the vicious cycle of misfortunes. This paper aims at discussing Elmandjra’s views on this issue and underscoring the contribution and significance of such discourse within contemporary development.

  7. Natural gas central to world's future energy mix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carson, M.M.

    1997-01-01

    Continued growth in demand for natural gas is one of three pillars around which the energy mix of the future will take shape and upon which energy strategies should be based. The others are consumption efficiency and growth of renewable energy sources. This paper evaluates world energy supply and demand and includes an analysis of world pipeline gas, electricity, and LNG trends. The paper discusses the natural gas resource, proved reserves, reserves growth, gas prices and demand, country demand trends, world energy use, gas pipeline construction, power generation, electricity consumption and prices, and global carbon emissions

  8. Energy in the world: The present situation and future options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.H.

    1989-01-01

    It is reported that the most notable changes on the world energy scene since 1973 concerned the shift in OPEC's role from a base to a swing producer, the disruption of the fast market penetration of nuclear power and the impacts caused by the technical advances at essentially all stages of the energy system. Further, several parts of the world witnessed a strong environmental movement which attracted public attention to the conduct of the energy industry and its social implications and environmental consequences. The lecture illuminates these events in some detail and evaluate their impacts on present and future energy demand, supply and trade patterns. The future energy outlook includes two fundamentally different scenarios. Each scenario in itself appears internally consistent. The diverging projections of future energy demand and supply mixes underlying these scenarios are the result of the inclusion/omission of technical change or dynamics of technology into the analyses. 19 refs, 22 figs

  9. Energy for a righteous world with a safe future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rose, D.J.

    1977-01-01

    We are in charge of our energy future and thus of the future itself. Energy decisions in the past were made on a too narrow and short-term basis, and we can daily clearly observe their inadequacy. The policy's quality does not correspond to the significance of the problem. A greater approximation leads to a consequent policy of the development of energy alternatives, of which some considerably deviate from those which would result at a closer look. This lecture deals with two aspects of the problem, both concern the future of nuclear energy. The first aspect treats extensively the energy possibilities available to the world in the future; the second deals more with the problem of the acceptibility of nuclear energy, reprocessing of nuclear fuels, the relationship to atomic armament and the thus involved problems. (orig.) [de

  10. Impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Khalick, S.; Jansen, P.; Kessler, G.; Klumpp, P.

    1980-08-01

    An investigation has been conducted to examine the impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future. The primary objectives of this investigation have been: (1) to determine whether hybrids can allow us to meet the projected nuclear component of the world energy demand within current estimates of uranium resources without fast breeders, and (2) to identify the preferred hybrid concept from a resource standpoint. The results indicate that hybrids have the potential to lower the world uranium demand to values well below the resource base. However, the time window for hybrid introduction is quite near and narrow (2000-2020). If historical market penetration rates are assumed, the demand will not be met within the resource base unless hybrids are coupled to the breeders. The results also indicate that from a resource standpoint hybrids which breed their own tritium and have a low blanket energy multiplication are preferable. (orig.) [de

  11. Impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Khalik, S.I.

    1980-01-01

    An investigation has been conducted to examine the impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future. The primary objectives of this investigation have been (1) to determine whether hybrids can allow us to meet the projected nuclear component of the world energy demand within current estimates of uranium resources with or without fast breeders, and (2) to identify the preferred hybrid concept from a resource standpoint. The results indicate that hybrids have the potential to lower the world uranium demand to values well below the resource base. However, the time window for hybrid introduction is quite near and narrow (2000-2020). If historical market penetration rates are assumed, the demand will not be met within the resource base unless hybrides are coupled to the breeders. The results also indicate that from a resource standpaint hybrids which breed their own tritium and have a low blanket energy multiplication are preferable. (orig.) [de

  12. Impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Khalik, S.I.; Jansen, P.; Kessler, G.; Klumpp, P.

    1981-01-01

    An investigation has been conducted to examine the impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future. The primary objectives of this investigation have been: (1) to determine whether hybrids can allow us to meet the projected nuclear component of the world energy demand within current estimates of uranium resources with or without fast breeders, and (2) to identify the preferred hybrid concept from a resource standpoint. The results indicate that hybrids have the potential to lower the world uranium demand to values well below the resource base. However, the time window for hybrid introduction is quite near and narrow (2000-2020). If historical market penetration rates are assumed, the demand will not be met within the resource base unless hybrids are coupled to the breeders. The results also indicate that from a resource standpoint hybrids which breed their own tritium and have a low blanket energy multiplication are preferable. (orig.) [de

  13. World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frei, Christoph; Whitney, Rob; Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Rose, Karl; Rieser, Dan A.; Al-Qahtani, Ayed; Thomas, Philip; Turton, Hal; Densing, Martin; Panos, Evangelos; Volkart, Kathrin

    2013-01-01

    The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today's choices on tomorrow's energy landscape. Rather than telling policy-makers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC's World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow This document includes the French and English versions of the executive summary and the English version of the full report

  14. World energy: the facts and the future. 2. ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedley, Don.

    1986-01-01

    The world energy situation is examined. Since the first edition of the book was written, the 1979 oil price rise has added weight to the argument that the economics of the second half of the twentieth century have been dominated by the economics of the barrel of oil. This book looks at the major fuels available - coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear energy and electricity. Each is considered in turn, looking at the reserves, costs, demand and the prospects for the future. Questions about the fuels discussed in the book include: how far will the price of oil fall, can nuclear power ever gain full public acceptance, can conservation be the 'fifth fuel', when will the development of synthetic fuels and renewable energy sources regain momentum. The energy supply and demand throughout the world is then presented taking each country, or group of countries in turn and considering each fuel. The future is then considered -prospects for synthetic fuels, renewable energy sources, eg wind and solar power and nuclear fusion. 115 tables present the data on which the book is based and its conclusions drawn. (UK)

  15. Future of Energy in Egypt and the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hani Nokraschy

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available If the whole world, which Egypt is a part of, continues business as usual in the field of electricitygeneration, namely, using the same regimes adopts today, burning fossil fuels and Uranium fission,both fuels will run out within sixty years at most and the world will definitely return to the Stone Age.Shall this be the end of the Egyptian people … the history makers?Generating energy is the next necessity to human life after water and food, since it is the majorstimulus of development. However, what is the aim of development if it is only momentary; thenfollowed by an endless abyss?Shall we wait till fossil and nuclear fuels run out? Jostling over the remaining fuel will certainly befierce and we will pay a high price for it, a matter that will subsequently lead to demolishing theingredients of development.Considering that oil is now dominating our way of life, it shall be wise to start immediately planning forthe post-oil age, provided that it is a sustainable plan set up to continue its validity as long as humanslive on this planet; this cannot be achieved except if we shift to renewable energies.Looking at Egypt and its available renewable energy sources, it becomes evident that the solarenergy, particularly in Upper Egypt, can give more than the present and future needs of the Egyptiansociety and even cover the demand of the whole world for electricity.

  16. The Future of Education into a Digital World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorica Jelev

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article investigate the role of communication in the digital age, between consumers and business and seeks to render highlighting changes within the Romanian society in the last 26 years, with the effects occurred in people's behavior, but also the changes of university education at the discipline I teach, Merchandising and International Marketing, with impact on the delivery of new information to the students of the Faculty of Economic Sciences, within Spiru Haret University. We live in an era where everything seems to change and evolve almost overnight. ”The world economic order went through a tectonic transformation, accompanied by, and in part caused by, groundbreaking advances in science and technology and the rise of globalization” . New industries start to develop, while others are on their last legs or already extinct in a world of advanced, emerging, and developing countries. As a result, lots of jobs from years past aren’t as relevant today as they once were, and many no longer exist. Therefore it’s easy to predict that eventually, today’s jobs will evolve into something completely different. And some will become obsolete. And it is those changes that lead to multiple consequences, affecting many other fields, one being education. We need a broad, flexible and motivating education that recognizes the different talents of all children and delivers excellence for everyone. Studying methods and curricula from the 20th century may no longer be relevant in the constantly evolving and changing world of the 21st century, in preparing you for your future job. And in order to maximize your chances of having a successful career in the field of your choice, you have to constantly adapt and evolve. Creative education involves a balance between teaching knowledge and skills, and encouraging innovation. New branches of industries will appear, and potential employers and employees will need to acquire new skills and abilities. And it is

  17. Future World Energy Constraints and the Direction for Solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lightfoot, H.D.

    2004-09-12

    This paper was originally written in response to the concern that rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere caused by burning of fossil fuels will ultimately contribute to global warming. Now we are beginning to see evidence of coming problems in the supply of fuels for transportation. This paper describes the benefits of adequate energy supply and the problems of future energy supply. Partial solutions are suggested for immediate application as well as longer term solutions to address both of these concerns. To evaluate the situation and solutions we must understand: (1) how much primary energy is currently used world-wide and might be needed in 2100, (2) how important energy is to the welfare of people, (3) the forms of energy sources and end uses and (4) where new sources may come from. The major portion of world primary energy demand is provided by fossil fuels. This portion dropped from 93% in 1970 to 85% in 1995, mainly because of the increased use of nuclear energy. How ever, since the mid-1990s fossil fuels have maintained their 85% share of world energy supply. The importance of the relationship between per capita energy consumption and per capita income for the world is discussed. The limits of conservation, energy efficiency and renewable energies are examined. The contribution of renewable energies is compared to 41 different views of world energy demand in 2100. Without new technology for large scale storage of intermittent electricity from wind and solar the contribution of renewable energies is not likely to grow significantly beyond the current level of 7-8%. The paper offers conclusions and partial solutions that we can work on immediately. Examination of the forms of energy supplied by the sun, which is powered by nuclear fusion, and the way in which nuclear fission currently supplies energy to the world sets the research framework for longer term solutions. This framework points towards two possible longer term complementary res earch projects which

  18. Future World Energy Constraints and the Direction for Solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lightfoot, H.D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper was originally written in response to the concern that rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere caused by burning of fossil fuels will ultimately contribute to global warming. Now we are beginning to see evidence of coming problems in the supply of fuels for transportation. This paper describes the benefits of adequate energy supply and the problems of future energy supply. Partial solutions are suggested for immediate application as well as longer term solutions to address both of these concerns. To evaluate the situation and solutions we must understand: (1) how much primary energy is currently used world-wide and might be needed in 2100, (2) how important energy is to the welfare of people, (3) the forms of energy sources and end uses and (4) where new sources may come from. The major portion of world primary energy demand is provided by fossil fuels. This portion dropped from 93% in 1970 to 85% in 1995, mainly because of the increased use of nuclear energy. How ever, since the mid-1990s fossil fuels have maintained their 85% share of world energy supply. The importance of the relationship between per capita energy consumption and per capita income for the world is discussed. The limits of conservation, energy efficiency and renewable energies are examined. The contribution of renewable energies is compared to 41 different views of world energy demand in 2100. Without new technology for large scale storage of intermittent electricity from wind and solar the contribution of renewable energies is not likely to grow significantly beyond the current level of 7-8%. The paper offers conclusions and partial solutions that we can work on immediately. Examination of the forms of energy supplied by the sun, which is powered by nuclear fusion, and the way in which nuclear fission currently supplies energy to the world sets the research framework for longer term solutions. This framework points towards two possible longer term complementary res earch projects which

  19. Present and future of flat panel detectors in the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inamura, Kiyonari

    2002-01-01

    Present status of development of flat panel detectors and their clinical application in the world have been surveyed, and future trends are also explored especially in the field of material researches and methods of manufacturing. Also the importance of role of medical physicists on user side is described because characteristic physics measurement of a detector assembly is unavoidable and essential in quality assurance in clinical routine and acceptance test in hospitals. Even though physics measurements and clinical evaluations on flat panel detectors have shown remarkable progress and advances in these several years, future problems of cost down in manufacturing and quality assurance to prevent individual differences between detector assemblies must be resolved. Results of evaluation in mammography, chest radiography, fluoroscopy for cardiovascular examination, bone tumor examination and radiotherapy application indicate that flat panel detectors are future promising materials. Their systematic operation is contributing to heighten accuracy of image examinations and preciseness of radiation therapy. Encouragement to medical physicists relevant to flat panel detectors is also raised in this paper. (author)

  20. World Future Mapping and Scenarios for the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vareikis Egidijus

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this text is to describe the methods of future studies, its possibilities and limitations, as well as to make some predictions about the real picture of the development of the 21st century. However, the planning is still not very reliable, and far from a “road map” framework. Thus, future studies are still balancing between science and scientific/artistic fiction. The set of methods of future investigation permits one to compose a few or even up to dozens of medium term or long term scenarios of the world’s future. There are a few well-proven laws of social and economic development as well as some partially predictable phenomena in the area of environment, biology, human ethic, etc. No future planning is secure from unpredictable phenomena – “black swans” – and their impact, nor secure from “political decisions” that destroy natural developments in society. So no one scenario can pretend to be absolutely right. The most frequent future scenarios are based on the wish to implement a copy of an existing “happy nation”, to fight undesirable trends, and create some kind of “dream society” while stimulating positives and inhibiting negative trends. The final version of a scenario depends also upon the “human factors”, e.g. knowledge, stereotypes of thinking, as well as the wishes of those who are financing the project. Generally they are “happy end” projects. This makes scenarios rather useless. Only the independent experts that present more realistic and reliable scenarios can help in the planning of medium term and long term futures. Currently many scenarios foresee the so-called American or European way of development, which is in fact the continuation of the existing world order. There is a growing number of publications about the emergence of China (and Russia as a great power as well as possibilities of a New Caliphate, New Messiah or new Orwellian style regimes.

  1. The world's nuclear future - built on material success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ion, Sue

    2010-07-01

    In our energy hungry world of the twenty-first century, the future of electricity generation must meet the twin challenges of security of supply and reduced carbon emissions. The expectations for nuclear power programmes to play a part in delivering success on both counts, grows ever higher. The nuclear industry is poised on a renaissance likely to dwarf the heady days of the 1960s and early 1970s. Global supply chain and project management challenges abound, now just as then. The science and engineering of materials will be key to the successful deployment and operation of a new generation of reactor systems and their associated fuel cycles. Understanding and predicting materials performance will be key to achieving life extension of existing assets and underpinning waste disposal options, as well as giving confidence to the designers, their financial backers and governments across the globe, that the next generation of reactors will deliver their full potential.

  2. Photosynthetic oxygen production in a warmer ocean: the Sargasso Sea as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Katherine; Bendtsen, Jørgen

    2017-09-13

    Photosynthetic O 2 production can be an important source of oxygen in sub-surface ocean waters especially in permanently stratified oligotrophic regions of the ocean where O 2 produced in deep chlorophyll maxima (DCM) is not likely to be outgassed. Today, permanently stratified regions extend across approximately 40% of the global ocean and their extent is expected to increase in a warmer ocean. Thus, predicting future ocean oxygen conditions requires a better understanding of the potential response of photosynthetic oxygen production to a warmer ocean. Based on our own and published observations of water column processes in oligotrophic regions, we develop a one-dimensional water column model describing photosynthetic oxygen production in the Sargasso Sea to quantify the importance of photosynthesis for the downward flux of O 2 and examine how it may be influenced in a warmer ocean. Photosynthesis is driven in the model by vertical mixing of nutrients (including eddy-induced mixing) and diazotrophy and is found to substantially increase the downward O 2 flux relative to physical-chemical processes alone. Warming (2°C) surface waters does not significantly change oxygen production at the DCM. Nor does a 15% increase in re-mineralization rate (assuming Q 10  = 2; 2°C warming) have significant effect on net sub-surface oxygen accumulation. However, changes in the relative production of particulate (POM) and dissolved organic material (DOM) generate relatively large changes in net sub-surface oxygen production. As POM/DOM production is a function of plankton community composition, this implies plankton biodiversity and food web structure may be important factors influencing O 2 production in a warmer ocean.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  3. Alternative futures for world cereal and meat consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosegrant, M W; Leach, N; Gerpacio, R V

    1999-05-01

    Fundamental changes in the global structure of food demand will lead to an extraordinary increase in the importance of developing countries in global food markets. Economic growth in developing countries is changing consumption patterns, with slower growth (and in many countries actual declines) in per capita food consumption of grains and rapidly growing per capita and total meat consumption, combined with induced growth in cereal feed consumption. The present paper examines the hypothesis, suggested by some researchers, that high-meat diets in developed countries limit improvement in food security in developing countries. These analysts argue that reduced meat consumption in developed countries would release cereals from livestock feed to food for poorer populations, thus improving food security in developing countries. Using the International Food Policy Research Institute (Washington, DC, USA) global food projections model, the international model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade (see Rosegrant et al. 1995), we first analyse the implications for future global cereal and meat supply and demand resulting from changes in global income, population growth and other structural changes, then simulate alternative scenarios to examine the effect of large reductions in meat consumption in developed countries on food consumption and food security in developing countries. The paper shows that while the long-term prospects for food supply, demand and trade indicate a strengthening of world cereal and livestock markets, the improvement in food security in the developing world will be slow, and changes in the dietary patterns in developed countries are not an effective route to improvement in food security in developing countries.

  4. Sustaining the future: the role of nuclear power in meeting future world energy needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.; Sun, Y.

    2003-01-01

    A description is given of recently informed analyses showing the potential that nuclear power has in meeting global energy demands. For both the electricity and transportation sectors, we can quantify the beneficial effects on the environment, and we show how nuclear power deserves credit for its role in assisting future world energy, environmental and economic sustainability. The continuing expansion of the world's and Asia's energy needs, coupled with the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) and other emissions, will require new approaches for large scale energy production and use. This is particularly important for China and Asia with respect to meeting both the energy demand and sustainability challenges. We show and explore the role of nuclear power for large-scale energy applications, including electricity production and hydrogen for transportation. Advanced nuclear technologies, such as those like CANDU's next generation ACR, can meet future global energy market needs, avoid emissions, and mitigate the potential for global climate change. We use the latest IPCC Scenarios out to the year 2100 as a base case, but correct them to examine the sensitivity to large scale nuclear and hydrogen fuel penetration. We show a significant impact of nuclear energy on energy market penetration, and in reducing GHGs and other emissions in the coming century, particularly in the industrial developing world and in Asia. This is achieved without needing emissions credits, as are used or needed as economic support for other sources, or for subsidies via emissions trading schemes. Nuclear power offers the relatively emissions-free means, both to provide electricity for traditional applications and, by electrolytic production of hydrogen, to extend its use deep into the transportation sector. For the published IPCC Marker Scenarios for Asia we show the reduction in GHG emissions when electrolysis using electricity from nuclear power assists the introduction of hydrogen as a fuel

  5. Oil and the world economy: some possible futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumhof, Michael; Muir, Dirk

    2014-01-13

    This paper, using a six-region dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy, assesses the output and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies, the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, output growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.

  6. The Future of World Englishes in Language Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, James Dean

    2014-01-01

    This article begins by defining "world Englishes" (WEs) and the related paradigm of inner-, outer-, and expanding-circle English(es). The discussion then turns to the central concerns of the WEs and language testing (LT) communities with regard to how English tests can best be constructed to include various WEs by discussing (a) what…

  7. Brave New Worlds? The Once and Future Information Ethics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ess, Charles

    2010-01-01

    in both Western and Eastern countries, and correlative shifts from the communication technologies of literacy and print to a “secondary orality.” These consequences in turn imply that current and future information ethics should focus on developing a global but pluralistic virtue ethics - one that may......I highlight several aspects of current and future developments of the internet, in order to draw from these in turn specific consequences of particular significance for the ongoing development and expansion of information ethics. These consequences include changing conceptions of self and privacy...

  8. Telehealth in the developing world: current status and future prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott RE

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Richard E Scott,1,2 Maurice Mars11Department of TeleHealth, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; 2NT Consulting - Global e-Health Inc., Calgary, AB, CanadaAbstract: In a setting of constant change and confusing terminology, telehealth continues to gain ground in both developed and developing countries within the overarching milieu of e-health. Evidence shows telehealth has been used in essentially all countries of the world, but is embedded in few. Uses and needs of telehealth vary between the developed and developing world; the latter struggles with both communicable diseases and noncommunicable diseases, and with very few resources. Common clinical applications include teleconsultation, telecardiology (transmission of ECGs, teleradiology, and teledermatology. Many telehealth projects exist throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia, and Africa, but there is little published evidence and only isolated examples of sustained programs, although several sustained humanitarian networks exist. Application of mobile solutions (m-health is on the rise in many developing countries. Telehealth is still not integrated into existing health care systems globally. Reasons vary: lack of proven large-scale operations, poor evidence base, inadequate implementation, lack of attention to the “soft side” of implementation (readiness, change management, and many others. For the developing world, reasons can be more pragmatic, including limited resources, unreliable power, poor connectivity, and high cost for the poverty stricken – those most in need. Telehealth is poised to improve health and health care in the developing world, driven by both altruistic and profit motives. But to have the desired effect, telehealth must address very specific and evidence-based health “needs” of each facility, region, or country; the shortage of health workers and specialist services; and the required skills upgrading and training

  9. The Future Revisited: Can Global Learning Still Save the World?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hook, Steven R.

    2018-01-01

    This article provides a twelve-year review of my "OJDLA" article ("Online Journal of Distance Learning Administration," University of West Georgia) on the future of global learning, and updates related to issues such as societal need, technologies, course design, administration affairs, faculty support, and student service.

  10. Third-world development: urbanizing for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcilwaine, C

    1997-01-01

    This article reviews some issues reflected in the 1996 UN Habitat II agenda and recent research on urbanization. The themes of the 1996 Habitat conference were urban development, urban poverty, and governance, civil society, and social capital. It is expected that over 50% of total world population will live in cities in the year 2000. Cities are viewed both as engines of economic growth and centers of severe economic, environmental, and social problems. There is some disagreement about whether cities are rational economic structures or what the World Bank's urban agenda is and its relationship with macroeconomic policy. Discussions of global urban issues are criticized for their neglect of issues of equity and poverty, cultural diversity, and identity and representation. Habitat II also stressed urban sustainability. There is growing recognition that urban management involves more than the "Brown Agenda" of environmental and physical aspects of urban growth. Recent studies identify how politics and power affect people's access to basic urban services. Urban economic activity can also contribute to environmental problems. Urban growth affects the provision of health services. Although there is not a consensus on the role of cities in expanding economic and social development and the best management practices, there is sufficient evidence to indicate that urban processes are varied throughout the developing world. The links between urban and rural areas differentiate cities and expose the need to understand the role of intermediate urban areas surrounding and between larger cities. Poverty has become increasingly urbanized, but the extent of poverty is unknown. Habitat II was an unprecedented effort to engage nongovernment groups, local government staff, trade unions, and the private sector and to emphasize community participation. Networks of trust and reciprocity are key to solving poverty, inequality, and disempowerment problems.

  11. The energy future in the world at the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frot, J.

    2006-04-01

    After a presentation of the world context of the energy consumption (the growth, the petroleum and the natural gas last, the greenhouse effect gases impacts on the climate), and the today research and development domains in the energy sector (petroleum, gas, generation IV nuclear reactors, carbon sequestration, renewable energies, hydrogen, energy storage), the author examines, using 4 scenario, the margins of action, the energy efficiency, the Gross Domestic Product de-materialization and the costs. Then he discusses the hopes and problems in the domains of the transports and the carbon sequestration. A special attention is devoted to the energy efficiency importance. (A.L.B.)

  12. Preparing Indico for the Future and the World

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    The presentation will focus on showing what we expect to be Indico's evolution over the next couple of years as the tool of choice for collaboration in HEP, not only feature-wise, but also in terms of technology and service. It will demonstrate how Indico went from a niche conference organization application to being CERN's own event organization tool and later to a collaboration platform that is used in over 100 other institutions world wide, and how we intend to bring it to a whole new level - that of a global service available to the scientific community as a whole.

  13. Future of the Book? Challenge of the Digital World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pledger, Pat

    2010-01-01

    In the last ten years there has been much speculation about the role of e-books and e-book readers. This paper will look at the impact of e-book readers on publishing and reading, the types of e-book readers, their advantages and disadvantages. Some ideas for future e-books and e-book readers and their use in the library and classroom will be…

  14. Assessing the role of coal in the world energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hibbard Junior, W.R.

    1981-01-01

    Ten recent extensive studies of long range energy futures were evaluated and a consensus of findings developed. Progress toward the consensus was determined. In the next 20 years the United States will need all of the coal, nuclear, oil shale and tar sands that public consensus and the legislatures will permit. Concerns include the cost and availability of OPEC oil, energy efficiency, acid rain, and carbon dioxide build-up. (Author) [pt

  15. Big questions cloud Iraq's future role in world oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tippee, B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that Iraq raises questions for the world oil market beyond those frequently asked about when and under what circumstances it will resume exports. Two wars since 1981 have obscured encouraging results from a 20 year exploration program that were only beginning to come to light when Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990. Those results indicate the country might someday be able to produce much more than the 3.2 million b/d it was flowing before a United Nations embargo blocked exports. If exploratory potential is anywhere near what officials asserted in the late 1980s, and if Iraq eventually turns hospitable to international capital, the country could become a world class opportunity for oil companies as well as an exporter with productive capacity approaching that of Saudi Arabia. But political conditions can change quickly. Under a new, secular regime, Iraq might welcome non-Iraqi oil companies and capital as essential to economic recovery. It's a prospect that warrants a new industry look at what the country has revealed about its geology and exploration history

  16. The Future of the World Economy is an Integrated World Economic Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey Yurievich Glazyev

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Global changes in the modern world cannot be adequately described on the basis of neoliberal thinking and require a new approach. It can be formed on the basis of the cyclical-wave characterization of the development of mankind. The hypothesis about the wave-like development of the world economy with a certain cyclicity lies at the heart of thisresearch. The authors determined the economic basis of the formation, development and change of these waves (technological ways and technical revolutions. These changes reflect in the cyclical fluctuations of the world economy.The mechanism of these fluctuations is described by the theory of “large cycles of the economic conjuncture” by N. Kondratiev. The authors propose a methodology and methodological tools for analyzing and forecasting cyclic-wave processes in the economic development. The study has concluded that it is the regularities of K-cycles that allow one to correctly assess the ongoing processes in the world economy, to forecast possible variants of their development. The authors came to the conclusion that the development of the world economic structure is necessarily accompanied by a cyclical shift in the instruments of capital accumulation (material and financial expansion. These processes are reflected in the periodic replacement of scientific paradigms of economic development and management. The state always takes an active part in the phase of the dominance of productive capital, and the ideological paradigm is of a directing nature. While in the phase of domination of financial capital the liberal paradigm becomes dominant. We have substantiated the thesis about the transition from the American to the Asian systemic cycle of capital accumulation, which would inevitably lead in the middle of the 21st century to the shift of the center of the world economy from the West to the East. The paper concludes that the world is facing a change from the Monopolistic world economic structure to

  17. Future role of Gulf oil in world energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eltony, M.N.

    1998-01-01

    The view that there will be a growing dependence on oil from the Gulf countries is shared by a great number of oil market analysts. This view is based on the fact that Gulf countries dominate the global oil reserves. Energy analyst argue that as the world demand for oil continues to grow driven largely by the growth in developing countries' consumption coupled with constrained non-OPEC supply, the end result will be that the call on Gulf oil will grow substantially. In summary, this paper has challenged the view of growing dependence on oil from the Gulf using available information in conjunction with reasonable and fairly plausible arguments. The aim was to point out to the GCC member counties the danger of relying on these views in shaping their economic policies and in setting their oil market strategies. They may run the ultimate risk of being left with huge oil reserves that no one wants. (orig.)

  18. World oil and gas resources-future production realities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masters, C.D.; Root, D.H.; Attanasi, E.D.

    1990-01-01

    Welcome to uncertainty was the phrase Jack Schanz used to introduce both layman and professionals to the maze of petroleum energy data that must be comprehended to achieve understanding of this critical commodity. Schanz was referring to the variables as he and his colleagues with Resources for the Future saw them in those years soon after the energy-awakening oil embargo of 1973. In some respects, the authors have made progress in removing uncertainty from energy data, but in general, we simply must accept that there are many points of view and many ways for the blindman to describe the elephant. There can be definitive listing of all uncertainties, but for this paper the authors try to underscore those traits of petroleum occurrence and supply that the author's believe bear most heavily on the understanding of production and resource availability. Because oil and gas exist in nature under such variable conditions and because the products themselves are variable in their properties, the authors must first recognize classification divisions of the resource substances, so that the reader might always have a clear perception of just what we are talking about and how it relates to other components of the commodity in question

  19. Alien species in a warmer world: risks and opportunities

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pyšek, Petr; Jarošík, Vojtěch

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 24, č. 12 (2009), s. 686-693 ISSN 0169-5347 Grant - others:Evropská komise(XE) GOCE-CT-2003-506675 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : biological invasions * climate change * novel communities Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 11.564, year: 2009

  20. The future of nuclear power: A world-wide perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aktar, Ismail

    This study analyzes the future of commercial nuclear electric generation worldwide using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) concept. The Tobit panel data estimation technique is applied to analyze the data between 1980 and 1998 for 105 countries. EKC assumes that low-income countries increase their nuclear reliance in total electric production whereas high-income countries decrease their nuclear reliance. Hence, we expect that high-income countries should shut down existing nuclear reactors and/or not build any new ones. We encounter two reasons for shutdowns: economic or political/environmental concerns. To distinguish these two effects, reasons for shut down are also investigated by using the Hazard Model technique. Hence, the load factor of a reactor is used as an approximation for economic reason to shut down the reactor. If a shut downed reactor had high load factor, this could be attributable to political/environmental concern or else economic concern. The only countries with nuclear power are considered in this model. The two data sets are created. In the first data set, the single entry for each reactor is created as of 1998 whereas in the second data set, the multiple entries are created for each reactor beginning from 1980 to 1998. The dependent variable takes 1 if operational or zero if shut downed. The empirical findings provide strong evidence for EKC relationship for commercial nuclear electric generation. Furthermore, higher natural resources suggest alternative electric generation methods rather than nuclear power. Economic index as an institutional variable suggests higher the economic freedom, lower the nuclear electric generation as expected. This model does not support the idea to cut the carbon dioxide emission via increasing nuclear share. The Hazard Model findings suggest that higher the load factor is, less likely the reactor will shut down. However, if it is still permanently closed downed, then this could be attributable to political

  1. Svalbard as a study model of future High Arctic coastal environments in a warming world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek Piskozub

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Svalbard archipelago, a high latitude area in a region undergoing rapid climate change, is relatively easily accessible for field research. This makes the fjords of Spitsbergen, its largest island, some of the best studied Arctic coastal areas. This paper aims at answering the question of how climatically diverse the fjords are, and how representative they are for the expected future Arctic diminishing range of seasonal sea-ice. This study uses a meteorological reanalysis, sea surface temperature climatology, and the results of a recent one-year meteorological campaign in Spitsbergen to determine the seasonal differences between different Spitsbergen fjords, as well as the sea water temperature and ice ranges around Svalbard in recent years. The results show that Spitsbergen fjords have diverse seasonal patterns of air temperature due to differences in the SST of the adjacent ocean, and different cloudiness. The sea water temperatures and ice concentrations around Svalbard in recent years are similar to what is expected most of the Arctic coastal areas in the second half of this century. This makes Spitsbergen a unique field study model of the conditions expected in future warmer High Arctic.

  2. Future industrialization of the world and the necessity of nuclear power; how limited are resources?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovanovic, J.

    1996-01-01

    Will the future world be forever divided into an industrial, developed and 'rich' on one side, and primitive, undeveloped, and poor on the other? Is an industrial, affluent and sustainable world of 10-15 billion people owning 5-10 billion cars physically possible to exist. Can the world have enough food, minerals and energy to support such a widespread affluence in a sustainable manner? In previous papers i have argued that even without any major breakthroughs in science and technology, an industrialized, sustainable and affluent world can be created within the next half century, but only if breeder nuclear power is widely used throughout the world. In this paper i elaborate on the question of future availability of some basic natural resources. 18 refs. 3 figs. 1 tabs

  3. Can the future, world-wide energy supply be achieved without nuclear energy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kugeler, K.

    1995-01-01

    In the future the world-wide energy demand is going to increase considerably. The use of nuclear energy will continuously grow if the demand of climate researchers for a reduction of the world-wide CO 2 emission is fulfilled and if the possible contribution of regenerative energy sources is assessed realistically. In the future a world-wide use of nuclear energy will be realised according to even higher safety standards. The modification of the German Atom Law, which determines the limitation of damage caused to the reactor plant for future reactors fulfils this demand. The efforts in the field of nuclear technical development will concentrate on the proof of the required safety properties. (orig.) [de

  4. Development and future perspective of nuclear power plants. Current status and future prospect of world nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Masaharu

    2013-01-01

    Fukushima Daiichi NPS accidents occurred on 11 March 2011 brought about great effects on nuclear development not only in Japan but also in the world. In Japan restart of operation of periodically inspected nuclear power plants (NPPs) could not be allowed except Oi NPPs two units and most parties except Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) pledged to possibly phasing out nuclear power at House of Councillors election in July and public opinion was mostly against nuclear power after the accident. LDP clearly stated that, with the inauguration of new government last December, Japan would not pursuing the policy of the prior government of possibly phasing out nuclear power by the 2030s, but would instead make a 'zero-base' review of energy policy. Germany decided to close eight reactors immediately and remaining nine by the end of 2022. For many countries, nuclear power would play an important role in achieving energy security and sustainable development goals. In 2011 NPPs 6 units started operation with 2 units under construction, and in 2012 NPPs 3 units started operation with 7 units under construction. At present there are now over 400 NPPs operating in 31 countries and world trend seemed nuclear development was continued and number of countries newly deploying NPPs was increasing as much as eighteen. This article presented current status and future prospect of world NPPs in details. Japan would like to share its experiences and information obtained from the accident with the world and also promote NPPs overseas to meet the world's expectations. (T. Tanaka)

  5. Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alonso, David; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970-2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a

  6. The Future of the Automobile in an Oil-Short World. Worldwatch Paper 32.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Lester R.; And Others

    Possible future roles and designs of cars are examined in light of depletion of the earth's oil reserves. A major problem with regard to the rapidly changing world oil outlook is that cars will be competing with more essential claiments for scarce oil supplies including food production, industrial power, home heating, and running trucks and…

  7. Long-range prospects of world energy demands and future energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozaki, Yasuji

    1998-01-01

    The long-range prospects for world energy demands are reviewed, and the major factors which are influential in relation to energy demands are discussed. The potential for various kinds of conventional and new energy sources such as fossil fuels, solar energies, nuclear fission, and fusion energies to need future energy demands is also discussed. (author)

  8. Past, Present and Future: GATT, Free Trade Areas and... the World Trade Organization?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalo Bernardos

    1995-07-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this article are, on the one hand, to carry out a reconsideration of the workings of the commercial system since the Bretton Woods agreements and, on the other hand, to make some reflections regarding the function that the World Trade Organizationmust carry out in the future in a world divided, probably just like now, in regional areas of free trade. In order to achieve these aims the following are specified: the bases on which the liberalization of trade has been founded after the Second World War, the causes whichprovoked the wave of protectionism in the Eighties, the reasons which have brought about the division of the world into trading blocks as well as the need for an organization which encourages inter-regional trade and reduces the commercial wars between these blocks.

  9. Solar power engineering in the future world: A view from Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strebkov, D. S.

    2012-01-01

    The paper suggests an energy model for the future world based on solar power engineering and new Russian energy technologies. Chlorine-free solar silicon technologies, stationary concentrators, solar modules with service lives doubled up to 40 years, matrix solar elements with an efficiency factor of 20% at a concentration of 5-500, and resonance waveguide methods for transmitting energy for solar energy systems are considered. (author)

  10. Hope in Africa?: social representations of world history and the future in six African countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabecinhas, Rosa; Liu, James H; Licata, Laurent; Klein, Olivier; Mendes, Júlio; Feijó, João; Niyubahwe, Aline

    2011-10-01

    Data on social representations of world history have been collected everywhere in the world except sub-Saharan Africa. Two studies using open-ended data involving university students from six African countries fill this gap. In Study 1, nominations from Cape Verde and Mozambique for the most important events in world history in the past 1000 years were dominated by war and politics, recency effects, and Western-centrism tempered by African sociocentrism on colonization and independence. The first three findings replicated previous research conducted in other parts of the world, but the last pattern contrasted sharply with European data. Study 2 employed a novel method asking participants how they would begin the narration of world history, and then to describe a major transition to the present. Participants most frequently wrote about the evolution of humanity out of Africa, followed by war and then colonization as a beginning, and then replicated previous findings with war, colonization, and technology as major transitions to the present. Finally, when asked about how they foresaw the future, many participants expressed hope for peace and cooperation, especially those facing more risk of collective violence (Burundi and Congo). A colonial/liberation narrative was more predominant in the data from former Portuguese colonies (Angola, Cape Verde, and Guinea-Bissau) than from former Belgian colonies (Burundi and Congo).

  11. Structural changes in the world energy supply - adaptations up to current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schuermann, H.J.

    1985-03-11

    In this analysis of world energy markets in which he pays particular attention to mineral oil, and with a background of world economic problems which have not yet been solved, the author presents a piece of modern economic history in which he also highlights the political aspects of the supply of crude oil. The world-wide contraction in oil consumption which followed two price escalations, has been caused, it is held by structural factors and is therefore of a long-term nature. Of course, in the foreseeable future, oil will easily remain the most important energy-carrier. However, it will be of less importance for Western Europe and Japan than for North America, trading states and developing countries. Nevertheless, diversification should be encouraged as quickly as possible. This does include natural gas still but for the long-term also coal and atomic energy. The author pleads for world-wide trade relations based on coal and gas in order to complement the fully integrated world oil markets. Similarly atomic energy should be developed as quickly as possible.

  12. Future energy supplies. Lessons from the world energy outlook 2001. Insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cattier, F.

    2002-01-01

    At a global level, primary energy resources are amply sufficient to meet the growing needs expected over the coming decades. Energy supplies may however be affected by economic, technological or political conditions. Supplies of oil and natural gas will be dependent in particular on the carrying out of the necessary investments in the field of development, production capacity, transport and distribution within a suitable time. The future for coal is above all linked to future environmental policies to be put in place and on the capacity of 'clean' coal technologies to respond to these. Due to their costs, which remain high, and to a lack of incentive policies, renewable energy sources should find it difficult to gain a major share of world energy markets. Finally, the future for nuclear energy remains dependent upon policies concerning security of supply or the fight against climatic change. (author)

  13. Future Oil and Gas Resources of the World: A Coming Supply Crisis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlbrandt, T. S.

    2002-05-01

    Is the world running out of oil? Where will future oil and gas supplies come from? To help answer these questions, the U.S. Geological Survey completed in 2000 a new assessment of the undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources and potential additions to reserves from field growth. One hundred and twenty-eight provinces were assessed in a 100 man-year effort from 1995-2000. The assessed provinces included 76 priority provinces containing 95 percent of the world's discovered oil and gas and an additional 52 "boutique" provinces, many of which may be highly prospective. Total Petroleum Systems (TPS) were identified and described for each of these provinces along with associated Assessment Units (AU) that are the basic units for assessing undiscovered petroleum. The assessment process coupled geologic analysis with a probabilistic methodology to estimate remaining potential. Within the 128 assessed provinces, were 159 TPS and 274 AU. For these provinces, the endowment of recoverable oil, which includes cumulative production, remaining reserves, reserve growth, and undiscovered resources is estimated at about 3 trillion barrels of oil (TBO). The natural gas endowment is estimated at 2.6 trillion barrels of oil equivalent (TBOE). Oil reserves are currently 1.1 TBO; world consumption is about .028 TBO per year. Natural gas reserves are about .8 TBOE; world consumption is about .014 TBOE. Thus, without any additional discoveries of oil, gas or natural gas liquids, we have about 2 TBOE of proved petroleum reserves. Of the oil and gas endowment of about 5.6 TBOE, we estimate that the world has consumed about 1 TBOE, or 18 percent leaving about 82 percent of endowment to be utilized or found. Half of the world's undiscovered potential is offshore. Arctic basins with about 25 percent of undiscovered petroleum resources make up the next great frontier. An additional 279 provinces contain some oil and gas and, if considered, would increase the oil and gas endowment

  14. Advanced light water reactors: an economically viable part of the world's future energy mix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruschi, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    In addition to safety and reliability, a common mission for the international nuclear industry in the 21. century will be ensure affordable electricity. At the Westinghouse Electric Corporation believe our advanced light water reactor (ALWR) design gives us the opportunity to provide the safest, most reliable, lowest cost, most competitive generation method possible for use by nations and utilities worldwide. While the safety and reliability aspects of the ALWR can be proven tangibly and are well-documented, questions have been raised about the technology's ability to work within the world's selling price range for electricity generation. For our industry's financial stability, and especially for the stability of the world's future power needs, Westinghouse has done extensive work on this issue and we are convinced we can meet the competitive challenge. We believe the ALWR can be an economically viable part of the world's future energy mix. This paper will define the competitive challenge that is being addressed by the industry and then analyze three specific areas: capital costs, operating costs, and financing costs. The hidden advantage of nuclear power in responding to these challenges will be explored, and a strong case will be made asserting that the advanced light water reactor will be able to compete in international markets with viable production costs. (authors)

  15. Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the

  16. The World-Wide Web past present and future, and its application to medicine

    CERN Document Server

    Sendall, D M

    1997-01-01

    The World-Wide Web was first developed as a tool for collaboration in the high energy physics community. From there it spread rapidly to other fields, and grew to its present impressive size. As an easy way to access information, it has been a great success, and a huge number of medical applications have taken advantage of it. But there is another side to the Web, its potential as a tool for collaboration between people. Medical examples include telemedicine and teaching. New technical developments offer still greater potential in medical and other fields. This paper gives some background to the early development of the World-Wide Web, a brief overview of its present state with some examples relevant to medicine, and a look at the future.

  17. A study of current world telecommunications and a projection of the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karageorgis, Costas

    1992-09-01

    Telecommunications today are important factors in economic and social progress. The last decades of the 20th century and the early years of the 21st have been characterized as the Information Age. Telecommunications, the movement of information through distances, is absolutely critical to the economic and military survival of nations. This thesis is an attempt to predict the future of telecommunications, by studying and analyzing the past and present. First it examines the meaning of telecommunications today and some basics of information transmission. The current status of telecommunications is then presented, by examining the regional profiles as they are divided by the International Telecommunications Union. A number of statistical studies are given, which present a thorough picture of current world telecommunications. In an effort to predict future industry trends, the competition among the three largest telecommunications markets, U.S.A., Japan and the European Community, is also considered by looking at their present telecommunications industry, the efforts they make to improve their technology, and their plans for future investment. Finally, some major technological trends including BISDN, the use of fiber technology in the communications loop, and the use of solitons are examined. The new Metropolitan Area Network Protocol, FDDI-2 is also reviewed.

  18. Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

    2018-05-01

    The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

  19. Towards a new world: The contributions of nuclear energy to a sustainable future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R. B.; Miller, A. I.; Fehrenbach, P. J.; Kuran, S.; Tregunno, D.; Suppiah, S.

    2007-01-01

    Over the last few years, the world has seen growing concern about the sustainability of the Planet when supplying increasing energy use. The major issues are: increased energy prices in the world markets; growing energy demand in emerging economies; security and stability of oil and gas supply; potentially adverse climate change due to carbon-based emissions; and the need to deploy economic, sustainable and reliable alternates. Large undefined 'wedges' of alternate energy technologies are needed. In light of these major difficulties, there is renewed interest and need for a greater role for nuclear energy as a safe, sustainable and economic energy contributor. The shift has been, from being viewed by some as politically discounted, to being accepted as absolutely globally essential. We have carefully considered, and systematically, extensively and technically analyzed the contributions that nuclear energy can and should make to a globally sustainable energy future. These include restraining emissions, providing safe and secure power, operating synergistically with other sources, and being both socially and fiscally attractive. Therefore, we quantify in this paper the major contributions: a) The reduction in climate change potential and the global impact of future nuclear energy deployment through emissions reduction, using established analysis tools which varying the plausible future penetration and scale of nuclear energy. b) The minimization of economic costs and the maximization of global benefits, including investment requirements, carbon price implications, competitive market penetration, and effect of variable daily pricing. c) The introduction of fuel switching, including base-load nuclear energy synergistically enabling both hydrogen production and the introduction of significant wind power. d) The management and reduction of waste streams, utilizing intelligent designs and fuel cycles that optimize fuel resource use and minimize emissions, waste disposal

  20. The Future of Comparative and International Education in a Globalised World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, David N.

    2003-03-01

    This article examines the history and future prospects of comparative and international education with particular reference to the impact of globalisation and Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs). Connections and interactions between comparative educationists and the technologies of printing and electronic communications are examined in a historical context. The global nature of communications in comparative and international education is demonstrated both spatially and historically, using information from all regions of the world. The changing nature of technologies is noted to have broadened the audience for comparative insights. The development of textbooks, journals, conferences, international agencies, the Internet, web-based communications, and professional comparative education societies is related to the themes of communications and globalisation.

  1. Local Power -- Global Connections: linking the world to a sustainable future through decentralized energy technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brent, Richard; Sweet, David

    2007-07-01

    Various international dynamics are converging to increase the attractiveness of decentralized energy as a complement to existing centralized energy infrastructures. Decentralized energy (DE) technologies, including onsite renewables, high efficiency cogeneration and industrial energy recycling, offer considerable benefits to those seeking working alternatives to emerging challenges in the energy sector. DE is ideally suited to provide clean affordable energy to areas where modern energy services are currently lacking. Having smaller generators close to where energy is required ensures a safe, reliable and secure energy supply when the energy is required. Furthermore, because DE is a much cleaner alternative than conventional central power plants and the energy provided comes at a much smaller price tag DE is an increasingly acceptable alternative both in the developed and developing world. DE is sure to play a key role in any plan to build a sustainable energy future. (auth)

  2. Nuclear fusion and its large potential for the future world energy supply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ongena Jef

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available An overview of the energy problem in the world is presented. The colossal task of ‘decarbonizing’ the current energy system, with ~85% of the primary energy produced from fossil sources is discussed. There are at the moment only two options that can contribute to a solution: renewable energy (sun, wind, hydro, etc. or nuclear fission. Their contributions, ~2% for sun and wind, ~6% for hydro and ~5% for fission, will need to be enormously increased in a relatively short time, to meet the targets set by policy makers. The possible role and large potential for fusion to contribute to a solution in the future as a safe, nearly inexhaustible and environmentally compatible energy source is discussed. The principles of magnetic and inertial confinement are outlined, and the two main options for magnetic confinement, tokamak and stellarator, are explained. The status of magnetic fusion is summarized and the next steps in fusion research, ITER and DEMO, briefly presented.

  3. [The future of hygiene in a world of technology--hygiene and historicism].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habs, H

    1985-03-01

    Stimulated by "historicism", a term coined by Karl Popper, statements uttered by the philosophers Heidegger, Jaspers and Guardini are analysed to see whether historical forecasts are possible which justify a gloomy outlook of the world's future, such as is presently spreading as a result of the concern about an excessive invasion of our life by technology. Man has liberated himself from his original dependence on the natural forces of his environment thanks to the technology he has developed. He has severed his ties with this environment, but must not be overwhelmed by technocracy. Also, we hygienists, should allow for the historical development of our natural and social environment, in addition to the results of laboratory analyses and field studies.

  4. Domestic and world trends (1980 - 2000) affecting the future of aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, N.; Overholt, W.; Thomas, J.; Wiener, A. J.

    1975-01-01

    Variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century are studied. Estimates of relevant future developments are presented and their probable impact on the aviation industry in this country are identified. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis, a series of scenarios are developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand, to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A surprise free scenario is presented which represents the best judgment of the manner in which events will most probably develop and the effect on the aviation industry such developments will likely produce.

  5. Intertidal oysters reach their physiological limit in a future high-CO2 world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanes, Elliot; Parker, Laura M; O'Connor, Wayne A; Stapp, Laura S; Ross, Pauline M

    2017-03-01

    Sessile marine molluscs living in the intertidal zone experience periods of internal acidosis when exposed to air (emersion) during low tide. Relative to other marine organisms, molluscs have been identified as vulnerable to future ocean acidification; however, paradoxically it has also been shown that molluscs exposed to high CO 2 environments are more resilient compared with those molluscs naive to CO 2 exposure. Two competing hypotheses were tested using a novel experimental design incorporating tidal simulations to predict the future intertidal limit of oysters in a high-CO 2 world; either high-shore oysters will be more tolerant of elevated P CO 2 because of their regular acidosis, or elevated P CO 2  will cause high-shore oysters to reach their limit. Sydney rock oysters, Saccostrea glomerata , were collected from the high-intertidal and subtidal areas of the shore and exposed in an orthogonal design to either an intertidal or a subtidal treatment at ambient or elevated P CO 2 , and physiological variables were measured. The combined treatment of tidal emersion and elevated P CO 2  interacted synergistically to reduce the haemolymph pH (pH e ) of oysters, and increase the P CO 2  in the haemolymph ( P e,CO 2 ) and standard metabolic rate. Oysters in the intertidal treatment also had lower condition and growth. Oysters showed a high degree of plasticity, and little evidence was found that intertidal oysters were more resilient than subtidal oysters. It is concluded that in a high-CO 2 world the upper vertical limit of oyster distribution on the shore may be reduced. These results suggest that previous studies on intertidal organisms that lacked tidal simulations may have underestimated the effects of elevated P CO 2 . © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  6. The Future of Pork Production in the World: Towards Sustainable, Welfare-Positive Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John J. McGlone

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Among land animals, more pork is eaten in the world than any other meat. The earth holds about one billion pigs who deliver over 100 mmt of pork to people for consumption. Systems of pork production changed from a forest-based to pasture-based to dirt lots and finally into specially-designed buildings. The world pork industry is variable and complex not just in production methods but in economics and cultural value. A systematic analysis of pork industry sustainability was performed. Sustainable production methods are considered at three levels using three examples in this paper: production system, penning system and for a production practice. A sustainability matrix was provided for each example. In a comparison of indoor vs. outdoor systems, the food safety/zoonoses concerns make current outdoor systems unsustainable. The choice of keeping pregnant sows in group pens or individual crates is complex in that the outcome of a sustainability assessment leads to the conclusion that group penning is more sustainable in the EU and certain USA states, but the individual crate is currently more sustainable in other USA states, Asia and Latin America. A comparison of conventional physical castration with immunological castration shows that the less-common immunological castration method is more sustainable (for a number of reasons. This paper provides a method to assess the sustainability of production systems and practices that take into account the best available science, human perception and culture, animal welfare, the environment, food safety, worker health and safety, and economics (including the cost of production and solving world hunger. This tool can be used in countries and regions where the table values of a sustainability matrix change based on local conditions. The sustainability matrix can be used to assess current systems and predict improved systems of the future.

  7. The Future of Pork Production in the World: Towards Sustainable, Welfare-Positive Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGlone, John J

    2013-05-15

    Among land animals, more pork is eaten in the world than any other meat. The earth holds about one billion pigs who deliver over 100 mmt of pork to people for consumption. Systems of pork production changed from a forest-based to pasture-based to dirt lots and finally into specially-designed buildings. The world pork industry is variable and complex not just in production methods but in economics and cultural value. A systematic analysis of pork industry sustainability was performed. Sustainable production methods are considered at three levels using three examples in this paper: production system, penning system and for a production practice. A sustainability matrix was provided for each example. In a comparison of indoor vs. outdoor systems, the food safety/zoonoses concerns make current outdoor systems unsustainable. The choice of keeping pregnant sows in group pens or individual crates is complex in that the outcome of a sustainability assessment leads to the conclusion that group penning is more sustainable in the EU and certain USA states, but the individual crate is currently more sustainable in other USA states, Asia and Latin America. A comparison of conventional physical castration with immunological castration shows that the less-common immunological castration method is more sustainable (for a number of reasons). This paper provides a method to assess the sustainability of production systems and practices that take into account the best available science, human perception and culture, animal welfare, the environment, food safety, worker health and safety, and economics (including the cost of production and solving world hunger). This tool can be used in countries and regions where the table values of a sustainability matrix change based on local conditions. The sustainability matrix can be used to assess current systems and predict improved systems of the future.

  8. Past and future trends in grey water footprints of anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to major world rivers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, C.; Kroeze, C.; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Gerbens-Leenes, Winnie

    2012-01-01

    The grey water footprint (GWF) is an indicator of aquatic pollution. We calculate past and future trends in GWFs related to anthropogenic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs into major rivers around the world. GWFs were calculated from past, current and future nutrient loads in river basins using

  9. Future Industrialization of the World and the Necessity of Nuclear Power, Part II: How Limited are Resources?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovanovich, Jovan V.

    1997-01-01

    Will the future world be forever divided into an industrial, developed and 'rich' on one side, and the primitive, undeveloped, and poor on the other? Is an industrial, affluent and sustainable world of 10-15 billion people owning 5-10 billion cars physically possible to exist? Can the world have enough food, minerals and energy to support such a widespread affluence in a sustainable manner? In previous papers I have argued that even without any major breakthroughs in science and technology, an industrialized, sustainable and affluent world can be created within the next half a century to a century, but only if breeder nuclear power is widely used throughout the world. In this paper I elaborate on the question of future availability of some basic natural resources. (author)

  10. Electricity generation in the world and Ukraine: Current status and future developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Zvorykin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Electricity generation is the key factor for advances in industry, agriculture, technology and the level of living. Also, strong power industry with diverse energy sources is very important for country independence. In general, electricity can be generated from: 1 non-renewable energy sources such as coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear; and 2 renewable energy sources such as hydro, biomass, wind, geothermal, solar, and wave power. However, the major energy sources for electricity generation in the world are: 1 thermal power – primarily using coal (~40% and secondarily natural gas (~23%; 2 “large” hydro power plants (~17% and 3 nuclear power from various reactor designs (~11%. The rest of the energy sources for electricity generation is from using oil (~4% and renewable sources such as biomass, wind, geothermal and solar (~5%, which have just visible impact in selected countries. In addition, energy sources, such as wind and solar, and some others, like tidal and wave-power, are intermittent from depending on Mother Nature. And cannot be used alone for industrial electricity generation. Nuclear power in Ukraine is the most important source of electricity generation in the country. Currently, Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs generate about 45.5% of the total electricity followed with coal generation ‒ 38%, gas generation 9.6% and the rest is based on renewable sources, mainly on hydro power plants – 5.9%. Nuclear-power industry is based on four NPPs (15 Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs including the largest one in Europe ‒ Zaporizhzhya NPP with about 6,000 MWel gross installed capacity. Two of these 15 reactors have been built and put into operation in 70-s, ten in 80-s, one in 90-s and just two in 2004. Therefore, based on an analysis of the world power reactors in terms of their maximum years of operation (currently, the oldest reactors are ~45-year old several projections have been made for future of the nuclear-power industry

  11. Climate Change: A Future of Less Water and More people - Strategies for a Water Constrained World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahai, D.

    2010-12-01

    Today, the fact that the Earth is warming is indisputable. The evidence of climate change is already all around us, with the occurence of ever more intense weather events, droughts, heat waves, floods and sea level rise. Predictions of greater calamities in the future without swift action must be taken seriously. However, while international summits have focused on means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, these are largely strategies of containment, not of cure. Even if emissions were to cease today, the current effects of climate change would remain with us for millenia. This is clear from the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The world must not only tackle the causes of global warming; it must adapt to the damage already done. This need is most acute where water supply is concerned. The world already faces daunting chalenges. According to United Nations' reports, even today 1.8 million children under 5 die from water related diseases every year; 900 million people lack access to safe drinking water; and 2.6 billion go without basic sanitation. In the developing world, 90% of sewage is discharged to water bodies without adequate treatment contributing to "dead zones". Population increases will make matters worse (an addition of around 3 billion people by 2050 is expected) and climate change will compound the crisis. It is forecast that, as the Earth warms, deserts will expand and droughts will intensify causing demographic shifts even as the world's population burgeons. We are already seeing different regions react to water shortages. Many countries are pursuing seawater desalination. However, seawater desalination has numerous drawbacks; it remains the most expensive of water treatment options and the most energy intensive. Some societies may have no choice but to turn to the sea; others should look to other alternatives first. Such frontrunners could include: (1) enhanced conservation, utilizing public education programs, price

  12. FORMATION OF THE NEW WORLD VIEW, NEW PERSON, NEW SOCIETY OF THE FUTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina A. Voronkova

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To substantiate the anthropological approaches to the definition of the noosphere and cosmic consciousness and the world, a new consciousness, a new man, a new society of the future, by which humankind can go to a new state of mutual responsibility. Society should be based on a spiritual basis, a person must develop in harmony with the universe, so the philosophers need to change the philosophy of survival of the globalized world in the development of philosophy and spirituality, which is a new matrix of the discourse of development and outlook of the universe. The meaning of the individual in society - to be useful to society and to the person, to be a master, to live in harmony with people and nature. Methodology. Study is based on the methd of hermeneutical analysis.The scientific novelty of this work is shown in the results, which indicate the formation of the noosphere worldview that seeks to realize the idea of V.Vernadsky, which manifests itself in the context of a harmonious relationship of scientific knowledge, philosophy, and religion, which produce a variety of forms of dialogue between people of different cultural backgrounds, nationalities, religions, generations and gender. Conclusions. The new philosophy of development in the twenty-first century, aimed at forming a new society, a new consciousness, a new person should be directed to: a the confrontation process of self-destruction of the human person and the destructive tendencies of the environment, and b the creation of conditions for the harmonization of public self-regulatory systems: organization, person, environment, society, and c the creation of conditions for the realization of the creative potential of every person (regardless of its level of consciousness to identify the direction of development of the creative work, and d the formation and implementation of creative management at all levels.

  13. Climate mitigation under an uncertain technology future: A TIAM-World analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labriet, Maryse; Kanudia, Amit; Loulou, Richard

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores the impacts of long-term technology and climate uncertainties on the optimal evolution of the World energy system. Stochastic programming with the TIAM-World model is used for a parametric analysis of hedging strategies, varying the probabilities associated to each of two contrasted technology outlooks. The parametric analysis constitutes an original supplement to the computation of hedging strategies by identifying technologies that are robust under a broad range of probabilities of the two technology outlooks. Natural gas appears to be one of the most appealing robust options in an uncertain technological context, especially in China, given its relatively low emissions and the low capital cost of associated technologies. Natural gas and some other options are in fact considered as “super-hedging” actions, penetrating more in the hedging solution than in any of the deterministic scenarios. Nuclear power and CCS use are less robust: they depend much more on either the level of the climate target or the probabilities of the technology outlooks. The analysis also shows that technological uncertainty has a greater impact under milder climate targets than under more severe ones. Future research might consider a larger set of possible technology outlooks, as well as specific analyses focused on key characteristics of low-carbon technologies. - Highlights: ► The hedging strategy is not an average of deterministic strategies. ► The hedging offers a mix of abatement actions that cannot easily be found otherwise. ► Natural gas is an appealing choice in an uncertain context, especially in China. ► China reduces its emissions only when options in other countries are exhausted.

  14. The need for nuclear power. Viewpoint on the world's challenging energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhodes, R.; Beller, D.

    2000-01-01

    To meet the world's growing need for energy, the Royal Society and Royal Academy report proposes 'the formation of an international body for energy research and development, funded by contributions from individual nations on the basis of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or total national energy consumption'. The body would be 'a funding agency supporting research, development and demonstrators elsewhere, not a research center itself'. Its budget might build to an annual level of some $25 billion, 'roughly 1% of the total global energy budget'. If it truly wants to develop efficient and responsible energy supplies, such a body should focus on the nuclear option, on establishing a secure international nuclear-fuel storage and reprocessing system, and on providing expertise for siting, financing, and licensing modular nuclear power systems to developing nations. According to authors, who study the dynamics of energy technologies, 'the share of energy supplied by electricity is growing rapidly in most countries and worldwide'. Throughout history, humankind has gradually decarbonized its dominant fuels, moving steadily away from the more polluting, carbon-rich sources. Thus the world has gone from coal (which has one hydrogen atom per carbon atom and was dominant from 1880 to 1950) to oil (with two hydrogens per carbon, dominant from 1950 to today). Natural gas (four hydrogens per carbon) is steadily increasing its market share. But nuclear fission produces no carbon at all. Physical reality - not arguments about corporate greed, hypothetical risks, radiation exposure, or waste disposal - ought to inform decisions vital to the future of the world. Because diversity and redundancy are important for safety and security, renewable energy sources ought to retain a place in the energy economy of the century to come. But nuclear power should be central. Despite its outstanding record, it has instead been relegated by its opponents to the same twilight zone of contentious

  15. The Future of wildland fire management in a world of rapid change and great uncertainty: Overview of a futures research project

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Bengston; Robert L. Olson; Leif A. DeVaney

    2012-01-01

    Past efforts to examine the future of wildland fire management have relied heavily on expertise from within the wildfire community. But changes in seemingly unrelated external factors - outside of the world of wildfire and fire management - can have unexpected and profound effects. This paper describes an ongoing sh1dy of the...

  16. Report of the world association of medical editors: agenda for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-04-01

    During a 3-day meeting at Bellagio in January 2001, a group of 20 editors from 12 countries in 5 continents met to map out a strategy for the World Association of Medical Editors (WAME)'s continued development in the service of medical editors over the next several years. The group: 1) Developed a statement of principles on the standards of professionalism and responsibilities of editors (this statement will be posted on the Web site after electronic consultation with and comment by WAME editors); 2) Agreed to assess the extent to which these principles are reflected in practice and to explore barriers to their adoption, using data from a survey and focus groups; 3) Developed and outlined an on-line program for distance learning, targeted at new editors; 4) Planned for formal evaluation of the educational outreach program; and 5) Agreed to support regional initiatives to strengthen local editorial capacity. Underpinning all past and proposed future activities is the WAME Web site. The ambitious plans outlined above will require extensive development of the site, plans for which were made at the Bellagio meeting.

  17. Changing the world with hydrogen and nuclear: From past successes to shaping the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carre, F.

    2010-01-01

    This presentation reviews the past history of hydrogen and nuclear energy, while considering how they had been important forever, how they have been used to change the world when they were discovered and understood, and how they will likely shape our future to face specific challenges of the 21. century. Content: 1 - hydrogen and nuclear reactions at the origin of the universe: the universe and supernovae, the sun, the blue planet, the evolution of man; 2 - understanding and first uses of hydrogen: the discovery of hydrogen, hydrogen balloons, airships or dirigibles, the discovery of the electrolysis and the fuel cell, Jules Vernes; 3 - development of nuclear over the 20. century: pioneers of nuclear energy, Fermi reactor, EBR-1; 4 - development of hydrogen over the 20. century, expanding uses of hydrogen over the second half of the 20. century; 5 - four major endeavours gathering hydrogen and nuclear: light water reactors, naval reactors, nuclear rockets, controlled fusion, the PNP-500 project; 6 - stakes in hydrogen and nuclear production in the 21. century: energy challenge for the 21. century, peaking of fossil fuel production, renaissance of nuclear energy, changes in transportation model, hydrogen market, technologies for nuclear hydrogen production, carbon taxes, the path forward: international demonstrations towards industrialisation, a new generation of scientists for our dreams come true

  18. The World Space Observatory Ultraviolet (WSO-UV), as a bridge to future UV astronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shustov, B.; Gómez de Castro, A. I.; Sachkov, M.; Vallejo, J. C.; Marcos-Arenal, P.; Kanev, E.; Savanov, I.; Shugarov, A.; Sichevskii, S.

    2018-04-01

    Ultraviolet (UV) astronomy is a vital branch of space astronomy. Many dozens of short-term UV-experiments in space, as well as long-term observatories, have brought a very important knowledge on the physics and chemistry of the Universe during the last decades. Unfortunately, no large UV-observatories are planned to be launched by most of space agencies in the coming 10-15 years. Conversely, the large UVOIR observatories of the future will appear not earlier than in 2030s. This paper briefly describes the projects that have been proposed by various groups. We conclude that the World Space Observatory-Ultraviolet (WSO-UV) will be the only 2-m class UV telescope with capabilities similar to those of the HST for the next decade. The WSO-UV has been described in detail in previous publications, and this paper updates the main characteristics of its instruments and the current state of the whole project. It also addresses the major science topics that have been included in the core program of the WSO-UV, making this core program very relevant to the current state of the UV-astronomy. Finally, we also present here the ground segment architecture that will implement this program.

  19. Past, Present, and Future of Psychosomatic Movements in an Ever-Changing World: Presidential Address.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrmann-Lingen, Christoph

    The American Psychosomatic Society was founded in 1942 and is celebrating its 75th anniversary in 2017. In recognizing the society's anniversary, this article provides a historical perspective on its history, the field of psychosomatic medicine in general, and anticipated future directions. Essay and narrative review of the literature on the historic development of psychosomatic concepts and their impact on medicine over time. Mind-body associations have been described in the medical literature for more than 3500 years. Early concepts of mind-body dualism and attempts to overcome them are found in classical Greek medicine. Psychosomatic thinking can be observed ever since, but only in the 20th century, a "psychosomatic movement" emerged in Europe and North America, aiming at humanizing medicine by introducing a holistic understanding of man into what was considered a widely reductionistic practice of medicine. This movement led to the inauguration of the American Psychosomatic Society during World War II and of national and international societies of psychosomatic medicine and its subspecializations thereafter. Psychosomatic medicine has its roots in the beginnings of medicine. During the past 75 years, it has made substantial contributions to the science and practice of medicine. The field has also changed in response to developments in medicine, technology, and society and is facing new challenges and opportunities that may require further adaptation of its concepts and practice.

  20. Three worlds of instructional design: State of the art and future directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merriënboer, J.J.G. van; Kirschner, P.A.

    Three worlds of ID are distinguished. The World of Knowledge stresses the analysis of learning outcomes in knowledge structures and the selection of instructional strategies for particular outcomes; the World of Learning focuses on particular learning processes and the synthesis of strategies that

  1. Reimagine the Future: Innovation for Every Child. The State of the World's Children 2015. Executive Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    UNICEF, 2014

    2014-01-01

    To mark the 25th anniversary of the Convention on the Rights of the Child, this edition of "The State of the World's Children" calls for brave and fresh thinking to address age-old problems that still affect the world's most disadvantaged children. The report is inspired by the work of innovators around the world--who are pushing…

  2. Leadership meta-competences for the future world of work: an explorative study in the retail industry

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    To achieve this purpose a leadership meta-competence model, based on levels of work theory, was developed for the future world of work. This model was firstly validated by senior managers in the retail industry. Subsequently a questionnaire assessing the perceived importance of these competencies currently and in the future was designed. This questionnaire was completed by 101 managers from various South African retail industries. The resultant data was analysed and the results indicated that...

  3. Adapting to warmer climate through prolonged maize grain filling period in the US Midwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, P.; Zhuang, Q.; Jin, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Climate warming is expected to negatively impact the US food productivity. How to adapt to the future warmer environment and meet the rising food requirement becomes unprecedented urgent. Continuous satellite observational data provides an opportunity to examine the historic responses of crop plants to climate variation. Here 16 years crop growing phases information across US Midwest is generated based on satellite observations. We found a prolonged grain-filling period during 2000-2015, which could partly explain the increasing trend in Midwest maize yield. This longer grain-filling period might be resulted from the adoption of longer maturity group varieties or more resistant varieties to temperature variation. Other management practice changes like advance in planting date could be also an effective way of adapting future warmer climate through lowering the possibility of exposure to heat and drought stresses. If the progress in breeding technology enables the maize grain-filling period to prolong with the current rate, the maize grain filling length could be longer and maize yield in Midwest could adapt to future climate despite of the warming.

  4. Tracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, Francina; Dall'erba, Sandy; Huang, Shuyi; Avelino, Andre; Mehran, Ali; Hu, Huancui; Schmidt, Arthur; Schick, Lawrence; Lettenmaier, Dennis

    2018-03-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade Mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis River basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario in which the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty, including (a) alternative future radiative forcings, (b) different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and (c) different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases; however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increase moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption are significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

  5. Nuclear power: How competitive down the line? [The world's latest energy outlook sees a mixed future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birol, F.

    2007-01-01

    The world is facing twin energy-related threats: that of not having adequate and secure supplies of energy at affordable prices and that of environmental harm caused by its use. Soaring energy prices and recent geopolitical events have reminded us of the essential role affordable energy plays in economic growth and human development, and of the vulnerability of the global energy system to supply disruptions. Safeguarding energy supplies is once again at the top of the international policy agenda. Yet the current pattern of energy supply carries the threat of severe and irreversible environmental damage. Reconciling the goals of energy security and environmental protection requires strong and coordinated government action and public support. These concerns have revived discussion about the role of nuclear power. Over the past two years, several governments have made statements favouring an increased role of nuclear power in the future energy mix and a few have taken concrete steps towards the construction of a new generation of safe and cost-effective reactors. Over the next two and a half decades, nuclear power along with energy efficiency and renewables, could help address concerns about over-reliance on fossil-fuelled electricity generation, especially worries about climate change and increasing dependence on gas imports: Nuclear power is a low-carbon source of electricity. Operation of one gigawatt of nuclear power generating capacity, if replacing coal-fired generation, avoids the emission of 5.6 million tonnes of CO 2 per year. Nuclear power plants do not emit any airborne pollutants such as sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides or particulate matter. Nuclear power plants can help reduce dependence on imported gas; and unlike gas, uranium resources are widely distributed around the world. Under current policies, gas-import dependence will rise in all regions of the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and in key developing countries by 2030

  6. World energy supply and demand and the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lantzke, U.

    1977-01-01

    The author discusses the OECD's report ''World Energy Outlook'', which concluded that a severe energy gap could, and probably would, develop by the mid-1980s if present energy policies continue. Should nuclear power fail to make a substantial contribution, this situation is predicted to become even worse. The author states that an energy gap can only be realistically avoided by a combination of (a) deep energy conservation, (b) even greater use of coal, and (c) nuclear power. New energy technologies cannot realistically be expected to make a significant contribution much before the end of the century. Conservation and coal alone, however, will not be sufficient. It is difficult to envisage energy savings of more than 10% without reducing economic activity to a degree that becomes politically unacceptable. Greater use of coal is undoubtedly feasible, but the potential is severely constrained in the medium term for economic, technological and environmental reasons. Nuclear power must also make a significant contribution. However, estimates of OECD nuclear energy supply for 1985 have been scaled drastically downwards during 1976 owing to: uncertainty in the utility sector over future growth in electricity demand; continued, and in some cases increased, opposition to nuclear power; and delays and uncertainties in government nuclear policies and programmes. The author concludes that we cannot afford any further shortfall and we must move urgently to: (a) give strong and unswerving support to thermal nuclear reactor programmes (requiring that governments adopt clear and coherent nuclear policies, taking into account the legitimate concern expressed by the public); (b) develop stable and long-term international arrangements so that the necessary nuclear fuel facilities can be made available on a secure basis for peaceful uses of nuclear power; (c) decide what the real proliferation risk is and agree on action to avoid it; and (d) make renewed and stronger efforts to solve

  7. Estimating future energy use and CO2 emissions of the world's cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Shweta; Kennedy, Chris

    2015-01-01

    This paper develops a tool for estimating energy-related CO 2 emissions from the world's cities based on regression models. The models are developed considering climatic (heating-degree-days) and urban design (land area per person) independent variables. The tool is applied on 3646 urban areas for estimating impacts on urban emissions of a) global transitioning to Electric Vehicles, b) urban density change and c) IPCC climate change scenarios. Results show that urban density decline can lead to significant increase in energy emissions (upto 346% in electricity & 428% in transportation at 2% density decline by 2050). Among the IPCC climate scenarios tested, A1B is the most effective in reducing growth of emissions (upto 12% in electricity & 35% in heating). The tool can further be improved by including more data in the regression models along with inclusion of other relevant emissions and climatic variables. - Highlights: • A tool for estimation of energy related emissions for urban areas is developed. • Heating degree days and urbanized area per capita are driving variables for urban energy consumption. • Global transition to EVs can only mitigate transportation emissions if GHG intensity of electricity grid is reduced. • Density decline of urban areas can lead to exponential increase of energy related emissions. • Climate change scenarios can slightly reduce the growth of energy related emissions increase by 2050. - A tool for estimation of global impact of urban systems on energy related emissions was developed that can simulate the impact of future scenarios (climate change, urban design etc)

  8. Journal of the two worlds. Energies of the future; Revue des deux mondes. Les energies du futur

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    Confusion and irrationality are the two master-words of today's debates about energies and their impact on safety, environment, ethic and society. On the other hand, reports about urgent decisions to be taken are piling up (wastes reprocessing, future of nuclear energy, European policy etc..). This book analyzes the possible scenarios and the energy challenges at the year 2030 and 2050 vistas. (J.S.)

  9. Future Game Developers within a Virtual World: Learner Archetypes and Team Leader Attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franetovic, Marija

    2016-01-01

    This case study research sought to understand a subset of the next generation in reference to virtual world learning within a game development course. The students completed an ill-structured team project which was facilitated using authentic learning strategies within a virtual world over a period of seven weeks. Research findings emerged from…

  10. The present and future burden of urinary bladder cancer in the world.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ploeg, M.; Aben, K.K.H.; Kiemeney, L.A.L.M.

    2009-01-01

    Urinary bladder cancer (UBC) is a common disease worldwide. At any point in time 2.7 million people have a history of UBC. The incidence of UBC varies over the world with highest rates in developed communities. But the burden of UBC will increase in less developed areas of the world. These changes

  11. Past future. Coal dependence of the World's society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hemery, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    From the end of the eighteenth century, coal and steam-engines system became the first energetic base of the successive waves of the world industrialization. In this paper, the author investigates the factor of this prominent part and describes the phases of the coal mining era. He examines its social correlations and its heavy impact upon the Earth's biosphere. Today, coal remains the second energy in the world but the first cause of the present climatic crisis

  12. Wireless world in 2050 and beyond a window into the future!

    CERN Document Server

    Dixit, Sudhir

    2016-01-01

    This book gathers visionary ideas from leading academics and scientists to predict the future of wireless communication and enabling technologies in 2050 and beyond. The content combines a wealth of illustrations, tables, business models, and novel approaches to the evolution of wireless communication. The book also provides glimpses into the future of emerging technologies, end-to-end systems, and entrepreneurial and business models, broadening readers’ understanding of potential future advances in the field and their influence on society at large.

  13. Using Digital Technologies in Clinical HIV Research: Real-World Applications and Considerations for Future Work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriesen, Jessica; Bull, Sheana; Dietrich, Janan; Haberer, Jessica E; Van Der Pol, Barbara; Voronin, Yegor; Wall, Kristin M; Whalen, Christopher; Priddy, Frances

    2017-07-31

    Digital technologies, especially if used in novel ways, provide a number of potential advantages to clinical research in trials related to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and may greatly facilitate operations as well as data collection and analysis. These technologies may even allow answering questions that are not answerable with older technologies. However, they come with a variety of potential concerns for both the participants and the trial sponsors. The exact challenges and means for alleviation depend on the technology and on the population in which it is deployed, and the rapidly changing landscape of digital technologies presents a challenge for creating future-proof guidelines for technology application. The aim of this study was to identify and summarize some common themes that are frequently encountered by researchers in this context and highlight those that should be carefully considered before making a decision to include these technologies in their research. In April 2016, the Global HIV Vaccine Enterprise surveyed the field for research groups with recent experience in novel applications of digital technologies in HIV clinical research and convened these groups for a 1-day meeting. Real-world uses of various technologies were presented and discussed by 46 attendees, most of whom were researchers involved in the design and conduct of clinical trials of biomedical HIV prevention and treatment approaches. After the meeting, a small group of organizers reviewed the presentations and feedback obtained during the meeting and categorized various lessons-learned to identify common themes. A group of 9 experts developed a draft summary of the findings that was circulated via email to all 46 attendees for review. Taking into account the feedback received, the group finalized the considerations that are presented here. Meeting presenters and attendees discussed the many successful applications of digital

  14. The development of the world's population as a factor determining future energy requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vossebrecker, H.; Henssen, H.

    1988-01-01

    Urgently desired economic developments improving the conditions of living in the developing countries and, in the long term, introducing a stabilization of the world's population, result in a considerable rise in world energy requirement. This, in turn, causes conflicts and raises major ecological dangers because of the accelerated depletion of fossil sources of energy it entails. The severity of the CO 2 problem emerges clearly only when seen in connection with the population growth of the developing countries. Undoubtedly, therefore, the fossil sources of energy will have to give up their present leading role in world energy supply because of the intolerable environmental pollution they produce and because of the dwindling oil and gas reserves. The only hope remaining for the present is the possibility of nuclear power and renewable energies pointly being able to meet requirements, while all economically reasonable conservation potentials are being exploited. (orig./UA) [de

  15. Coping with a fast-changing world: Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Weber, K. Matthias; Harper, Jennifer Cassingena; Könnölä, Totti; Carabias Barceló, Vicente

    2017-01-01

    Transformations linked to disruptive events are causing a shift in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) activities from individual large-scale foresight actions to smaller in-house exercises and capacity building. The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organ...

  16. UNESCO World Conference on Education for Sustainable Development: Learning Today for a Sustainable Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal of Education for Sustainable Development, 2012

    2012-01-01

    The UNESCO World Conference on Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) will be co-organised in 2014 by UNESCO and the Government of Japan on the occasion of the end of the UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development. It has the following objectives: (1) Celebrating a decade of action; (2) Reorienting education to build a better future…

  17. Améry, Arendt, and the Future of the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne O'Byrne

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Of all the terms Jean Améry might have chosen to explain the deepest effects of torture, the one he selected was world. To be tortured was to lose trust in the world, to become incapable of feeling at home in the world. In July 1943, Améry was arrested by the Gestapo in Belgium and tortured by the SS at the former fortress of Breendonk. With the first blow from the torturers, he famously wrote, one loses trust in the world. With that blow, one can no longer be certain that “by reason of written or unwritten social contracts the other person will spare me—and more precisely stated, that he will respect my physical, and with it also my metaphysical, being.” In a vault inside the fortress, beyond the reach of anyone who might help—a wife, a mother, a brother, a friend—it turned out that all social contracts had been broken and torture was possible. His attackers had no respect for him, and no-one else could or would help.

  18. World energy supply and demand and the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lantzke, U.

    1977-01-01

    The OECD's world energy outlook analyses projected trends in energy damnd and supply for the OECD area and other major global regions to 1985. It provides a brief discussion of trends after 1985. OECD energy consumption is projected to grow more slowly than in the past. Conservation effects will increase efficiency of energy use per unit of economic growth. All domestic energy supplies in the OECD are projected to expand faster than in the past. The relative share of non-fossil energy sources in total production will be almost doubled. Assuming moderate economic growth, existing energy policies and a constnat real price for oil, the outlook's reference case projects OECD oil import at 35 million barrels a day by 1985. This level of import demand, when combined with the import needs of other oil importing areas, could approach the limit of availability of world oil supplies and as a result cause severe disequilibrium in world energy markets. The outlook indicates such severe disruption can be avoided by action to improve the world energy supply and demand balance without impeding economic growth objectives. Strong measures will be required both to conserve energy and to develop new energy supplies. The biggest increment to the OECD's energy supply by 1985 is expected to come from nuclear power. This substantial nuclear contribution will be inevitable and irreplaceable. As a result urgent solutions to problems concerning safety, availability of fuel cycle services, the environment, cost escalation and construction delays will be required

  19. HISTORY OF LAND RESOURCES MANAGEMENT AND THE PLANT WORLD: WHAT WE TAKE THE FUTURE?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidia Borisovna Kuzina

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of management of land resources and flora in connection with the history of Russian statehood, legislative acts is considered. The specifics of legislation on land and nature are described. The structure of top-level management in the post-Soviet period in the Russian Federation and in the world community is described.

  20. The future of public hospitals in a globalized world: corporate governance, corporatization or privatization?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mordelet, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    This paper contributes to research in health systems and hospitals governance by examining the reasons and expected outcomes of the generalization of corporate governance rules in both public and private non-profit hospitals, all over the world, in order to achieve its clinical, quality and financial objectives.

  1. Tracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dominguez

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric rivers (ARs account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade Mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric–hydrologic–hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis River basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario in which the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty, including (a alternative future radiative forcings, (b different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and (c different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases; however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increase moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption are significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

  2. FuturICT: Participatory computing to understand and manage our complex world in a more sustainable and resilient way

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbing, D.; Bishop, S.; Conte, R.; Lukowicz, P.; McCarthy, J. B.

    2012-11-01

    We have built particle accelerators to understand the forces that make up our physical world. Yet, we do not understand the principles underlying our strongly connected, techno-socio-economic systems. We have enabled ubiquitous Internet connectivity and instant, global information access. Yet we do not understand how it impacts our behavior and the evolution of society. To fill the knowledge gaps and keep up with the fast pace at which our world is changing, a Knowledge Accelerator must urgently be created. The financial crisis, international wars, global terror, the spreading of diseases and cyber-crime as well as demographic, technological and environmental change demonstrate that humanity is facing serious challenges. These problems cannot be solved within the traditional paradigms. Moving our attention from a component-oriented view of the world to an interaction-oriented view will allow us to understand the complex systems we have created and the emergent collective phenomena characterising them. This paradigm shift will enable new solutions to long-standing problems, very much as the shift from a geocentric to a heliocentric worldview has facilitated modern physics and the ability to launch satellites. The FuturICT flagship project will develop new science and technology to manage our future in a complex, strongly connected world. For this, it will combine the power of information and communication technology (ICT) with knowledge from the social and complexity sciences. ICT will provide the data to boost the social sciences into a new era. Complexity science will shed new light on the emergent phenomena in socially interactive systems, and the social sciences will provide a better understanding of the opportunities and risks of strongly networked systems, in particular future ICT systems. Hence, the envisaged FuturICT flagship will create new methods and instruments to tackle the challenges of the 21st century. FuturICT could indeed become one of the most

  3. Proceedings of the CERI 2002 World Oil Conference : Reading the Future. CD ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The integration and expansion of world oil markets was the main topic of this conference which featured 18 presentations dealing with developments in the international energy sector. The conference provided an opportunity for participants to discuss issues regarding oil supply and demand, oil prices, OPEC's spare capacity, OPEC's view regarding increasing competition from Canada's oil sands, and what role non-conventional oil plays in today's marketplace. The conference was divided into 6 sessions entitled: (1) oil prices, business as usual, (2) world oil demand, the incredible shrinking market, (3) global oil supplies, (4) going offshore, (5) the politics of oil, and (6) the growing North American supply. The outlook of world energy markets was reviewed with particular emphasis on prospects for oil supply and reserves. Also, the current status of the petroleum industry in both OPEC and non-OPEC oil exporting countries was discussed with reference to exploration, production, reserves, and hydrocarbon potential as well as the environmental, and socio-economic challenges that the industry must face. refs., tabs., figs

  4. Large-scale water projects in the developing world: Revisiting the past and looking to the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivakumar, Bellie; Chen, Ji

    2014-05-01

    During the past half a century or so, the developing world has been witnessing a significant increase in freshwater demands due to a combination of factors, including population growth, increased food demand, improved living standards, and water quality degradation. Since there exists significant variability in rainfall and river flow in both space and time, large-scale storage and distribution of water has become a key means to meet these increasing demands. In this regard, large dams and water transfer schemes (including river-linking schemes and virtual water trades) have been playing a key role. While the benefits of such large-scale projects in supplying water for domestic, irrigation, industrial, hydropower, recreational, and other uses both in the countries of their development and in other countries are undeniable, concerns on their negative impacts, such as high initial costs and damages to our ecosystems (e.g. river environment and species) and socio-economic fabric (e.g. relocation and socio-economic changes of affected people) have also been increasing in recent years. These have led to serious debates on the role of large-scale water projects in the developing world and on their future, but the often one-sided nature of such debates have inevitably failed to yield fruitful outcomes thus far. The present study aims to offer a far more balanced perspective on this issue. First, it recognizes and emphasizes the need for still additional large-scale water structures in the developing world in the future, due to the continuing increase in water demands, inefficiency in water use (especially in the agricultural sector), and absence of equivalent and reliable alternatives. Next, it reviews a few important success and failure stories of large-scale water projects in the developing world (and in the developed world), in an effort to arrive at a balanced view on the future role of such projects. Then, it discusses some major challenges in future water planning

  5. A Home in the World? Remarks on India and the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-05-01

    their loyalties shift. If you ask an Indian working in America what he or she misses about India, the instant reponse is "Family," not corruption...experts, for whom the past is the pattern of the future. Then, in Burma, with a chopstick load of noodles halfway to my snout, the light finally

  6. Makiguchi in the "Fractured Future": Value-Creating and Transformative World Language Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goulah, Jason

    2009-01-01

    This article examines the applicability of Tsunesaburo Makiguchi's (1871-1944) educational ideas in what Denzin and Lincoln (2005) call the "fractured future," a time marked by human, environmental, and climatic destabilization, and a time in which the social sciences "are normative disciplines always already embedded in issues of…

  7. Picture a World without Pens, Pencils, and Paper: The Unanticipated Future of Reading and Writing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromley, Karen

    2010-01-01

    This article discusses the future of reading and writing. It includes a brief history of reading and writing, shows the reader how digital text has quietly evolved and threatens to take over traditional notions of what it means to be literate, and suggests that speech will emerge as a dominant way of communicating. The three ideas developed here…

  8. The changing world of gas exploration present and future trends; Les evolutions dans le secteur de l'exploration du gaz tendances actuelles et futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duval, B.C. [Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP), 92 - Rueil-Malmaison (France); Maisonnier, G. [Gedigaz, France (France)

    2000-07-01

    The industry has, in the past decade, added much more gas than it has produced, resulting in a 36% increase in world reserves. Therefore the resource base is no longer considered a serious constraint in satisfying the industry's needs. Under such circumstances, one may ask the question: is exploration for gas still needed? One way in which we may deal with this major issue would be to analyse the changes that occur in the upstream world, in relation to technology, the general business context and industry's strategies and their potential impact on future trends. Dramatic advancements in exploration technologies have helped to improve success ratios and prediction of fluid, and to open new prospective areas, while also reducing costs. From a State point of view, exploration constitutes a long term objective to contend with natural gas consumption growth without depending too much on imports, or to develop resources for exports. From a company perception, exploration appears as a necessity not only for future growth but also for geographical or geopolitical opportunities. Gas reserve additions will come increasingly from a combination of exploration and production deals. The numerous new opportunities created by a more open business environment will facilitate such developments. (authors)

  9. The changing world of gas exploration present and future trends; Les evolutions dans le secteur de l'exploration du gaz tendances actuelles et futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duval, B C [Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP), 92 - Rueil-Malmaison (France); Maisonnier, G [Gedigaz, France (France)

    2000-07-01

    The industry has, in the past decade, added much more gas than it has produced, resulting in a 36% increase in world reserves. Therefore the resource base is no longer considered a serious constraint in satisfying the industry's needs. Under such circumstances, one may ask the question: is exploration for gas still needed? One way in which we may deal with this major issue would be to analyse the changes that occur in the upstream world, in relation to technology, the general business context and industry's strategies and their potential impact on future trends. Dramatic advancements in exploration technologies have helped to improve success ratios and prediction of fluid, and to open new prospective areas, while also reducing costs. From a State point of view, exploration constitutes a long term objective to contend with natural gas consumption growth without depending too much on imports, or to develop resources for exports. From a company perception, exploration appears as a necessity not only for future growth but also for geographical or geopolitical opportunities. Gas reserve additions will come increasingly from a combination of exploration and production deals. The numerous new opportunities created by a more open business environment will facilitate such developments. (authors)

  10. Future Structure of the Life-World. As an inevitable consequence of the «peer-to-peer»

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mototaka Mori

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article intends to draw theoretically a future structure of the life-world. The state interventionism in the late capitalism has been often argued by the critical theoreticians like Jurgen Habermas since the last half of the twentieth century. It was particularly the main problem how possible the life-world was in such the technologically systematized society. However, the highly technological development of telecommunication has changed our everyday life very rapidly and totally. If we know such the rapid change of coevolution between human life and technology, we have to fundamentally reconsider on the theory of life-world. Therefore, in this article I will firstly focus on the classical theory of mundane social world which Alfred Schutz presented in the early 1930s. Of course, his project of socio-phenomenology has been one of the most brilliant und important works still now. However, his theory also will have to be renewed. If we know particularly the «peer-to-peer» constellation of the computer network by the distributed anonymous persons, the classical model of life-world must be versioned up to a next theoretical level. Secondly, considering on the virtual currency like the Bitcoin, this article will show you a hypothetical aspect of transformation of the life-world. The mechanism of trust, which has been often understood as one of the most important key concepts for the community or the society, may be replaced with the computer technology of cryptographic proof. Such a theoretical examination will finally lead to an important opened problem. We will have to inquire whether such the social order will be spontaneous, or whether such the ordering will have to be decided only by the speed of computer’s central processing unit.

  11. Life on a warmer earth: possible climatic consequences of man made global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flohn, H

    1981-01-01

    The interaction between energy and climate is explored, including the impact on global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear and fossil fuels. The global warming problem is introduced. Comprehensive analogies with warmer times are made. From the best models available, the future global average surface temperature is found and modified, describing the global warming effects caused by greenhouse effect caused by gases other than carbon dioxide, released into the atmosphere by man, i.e. nitrous oxide, methane, ammonia, and the chlorofluoromethanes. Paleoclimatic scenarios are reviewed, showing possible effects of global warming. An 800 to 1100 ppm CO/sub 2/ concentration causes irreversible Arctic melting, leading to displacement of present climatic zones by 400 to 800 km.

  12. [The current and future organisational structure of the OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo León, F; Ruiz Mercader, J; Sabater Sánchez, R; Rodríguez Ferri, E F; Crespo Azofra, L

    2003-12-01

    The authors analyse the organisational structure of the OIE (World organisation for animal health), highlighting the roles of the Central Bureau, the Specialist Commissions, Regional Commissions, working groups and ad hoc groups, Regional Representations, Reference Laboratories and Collaborating Centres. The paper also includes some suggestions as to how the OIE could work more closely with its 'customers', that is, the Member Countries. These suggestions are based on current theories of organisational flexibility, and take into account not only the current organisational structure of the OIE, but also the Strategic Plan and the Working Plan, which were adopted at the 69th General Session of the OIE International Committee in 2001.

  13. Road safety in a globalised and more sustainable world: current issues and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Stijn; Risser, Ralf

    2014-01-01

    Although many countries have had considerable success in reducing traffic injuries over recent decades, there are still some fundamental problems in this area. At the same time, there is increasing focus on road safety research and policy development in the context of globalisation, sustainability, liveability and health. This special section presents a selection of papers that were presented at the annual ICTCT workshop held on the 8th and 9th of November 2012 in Hasselt, Belgium, and accepted for publication in Accident Analysis and Prevention following the journal's reviewing procedure. The aim of the ICTCT workshop was to analyse road safety facts, data and visions for the future in the wider context of current issues and future challenges in road safety. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The future of the brain essays by the world's leading neuroscientists

    CERN Document Server

    Freeman, Jeremy

    2015-01-01

    An unprecedented look at the quest to unravel the mysteries of the human brain, The Future of the Brain takes readers to the absolute frontiers of science. Original essays by leading researchers such as Christof Koch, George Church, Olaf Sporns, and May-Britt and Edvard Moser describe the spectacular technological advances that will enable us to map the more than eighty-five billion neurons in the brain, as well as the challenges that lie ahead in understanding the anticipated deluge of data and the prospects for building working simulations of the human brain. A must-read for anyone trying to understand ambitious new research programs such as the Obama administration's BRAIN Initiative and the European Union’s Human Brain Project, The Future of the Brain sheds light on the breathtaking implications of brain science for medicine, psychiatry, and even human consciousness itself.

  15. An Australian Land Force for Conflict in a World Without Precedent (Future Warfare Concept Paper)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Michael B. Ryan, Australian Army Thesis: The current pace of change in the global security environment and information technology demands that, like...information) Wave societies.6 The current pace of change in the global security environment and information technology demands that, like all...Blue, downloaded from www.defence.gov.au/navy; La Franchi , Peter, “High Level Interoperability: Future Development of t Peter, “Development Role

  16. Oil and the future: Taking bearings in the greenhouse in a post Brent Spar world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leggett, J

    1996-12-31

    The paper discusses future oil combustion. A greenhouse-related environmental driving-force seems set to emerge in the capital markets in the years ahead. This will severely compound other already serious environment-related financial problems blighting the oil-industry`s access to capital radar screen. The wise oil company is now, increasingly clearly, the company thinking about how to begin repositioning itself for the twenty-first century as a total energy company. 6 refs.

  17. Future expectations for Japanese pharmacists as compared to the rest of the world

    OpenAIRE

    井上, 裕; 森田, 夕貴; 滝川, 茉由; 高尾, 浩一; 金本, 郁男; 杉林, 堅次

    2015-01-01

    It is important to share information about other countries' pharmacists to optimize cross-border medical cooperation. This paper examines the dispensing systems and the work done by pharmacists in the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Thailand, and Malaysia so as to compare these countries' medical practices and develop a cohesive vision for the future of Japanese pharmacists. All five of the countries have dispensing assistants. Pharmacists in Japan have duties of inventory control, drug disp...

  18. Oil and the future: Taking bearings in the greenhouse in a post Brent Spar world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leggett, J.

    1995-12-31

    The paper discusses future oil combustion. A greenhouse-related environmental driving-force seems set to emerge in the capital markets in the years ahead. This will severely compound other already serious environment-related financial problems blighting the oil-industry`s access to capital radar screen. The wise oil company is now, increasingly clearly, the company thinking about how to begin repositioning itself for the twenty-first century as a total energy company. 6 refs.

  19. On the future role of Gulf oil in meeting world energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy Eltony, M.

    1996-01-01

    The validity of the view of a growing dependence of the world on oil from the Persian Gulf, and the resulting implications for the economies of the Gulf countries were examined. The prevailing view in the countries of the Persian Gulf is that the demand for oil will continue to rise, resulting in the inevitable increase in prices which will in turn alleviate the budget deficit problems currently encountered by most of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. The author argues that the implication of this view is that GCC countries are failing to address the fundamental structural problems within their economies, and raise questions that tend to undermine this hypothesis of continuing dependence on Gulf oil by the rest of the world. Some of these factors are growing reliance on electricity and natural gas, environmental concerns, development of alternative fuels, political instability in the Gulf states and the potential interruption in supply, all of which tend to accelerate the trend towards reduced demand for Gulf oil. The following have been recommended as ways of avoiding the ultimate risk of huge unwanted oil reserves: diversification of the economies of GCC countries; reduced spending and increased investment in developing further capacity from non-GCC sources through cooperation and joint ventures between developing countries and international companies; a more active role in worldwide decisions relating to environmental concerns; and finally, a systematic monitoring and evaluation of the likely impacts of new developments in all areas of alternative energy. 17 refs

  20. A world class nuclear research reactor complex for South Africa's nuclear future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keshaw, Jeetesh

    2008-01-01

    South Africa recently made public its rather ambitious goals pertaining to nuclear energy developments in a Draft Policy and Strategy issued for public comment. Not much attention was given to an important tool for nuclear energy research and development, namely a well equipped and maintained research reactor, which on its own does not do justice to its potential, unless it is fitted with all the ancillaries and human resources as most first world countries have. In South Africa's case it is suggested to establish at least one Nuclear Energy Research and Development Centre at such a research reactor, where almost all nuclear energy related research can be carried out on par with some of the best in the world. The purpose of this work is to propose how this could be done, and motivate why it is important that it be done with great urgency, and with full involvement of young professionals, if South Africa wishes to face up to the challenges mentioned in the Draft Strategy and Policy. (authors)

  1. Future World Energy Demand and Supply: China and India and the Potential Role of Fusion Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheffield, John

    2005-01-01

    Massive increases in energy demand are projected for countries such as China and India over this century e.g., many 100s of megawatts of electricity (MWe) of additional electrical capacity by 2050, with more additions later, are being considered for each of them. All energy sources will be required to meet such a demand. Fortunately, while world energy demand will be increasing, the world is well endowed with a variety of energy resources. However, their distribution does not match the areas of demand and there are many environmental issues.Such geopolitical issues affect China and India and make it important for them to be able to deploy improved technologies. In this regard, South Korea is an interesting example of a country that has developed the capability to do advanced technologies - such as nuclear power plants. International collaborations in developing these technologies, such as the International Thermonuclear Reactor (ITER), may be important in all energy areas. Fusion energy is viewed as an interesting potential option in these three countries

  2. Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoegh-Guldberg, O. [University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW (Australia). School of Biological Sciences

    1999-07-01

    Sea temperatures in many tropical regions have increased by almost 1{degree}C over the past 100 years, and are currently increasing at about 1-2{degree}C per century. Mass coral bleaching has occurred in association with episodes of elevated sea temperatures over the past 20 years and involves the loss of the zooxanthellae following chronic photoinhibition. Mass bleaching has resulted in significant losses of live coral in many parts of the world. This paper considers the biochemical, physiological and ecological perspectives of coral bleaching. It also uses the outputs of four runs from three models of global climate change which simulate changes in sea temperature and hence how the frequency and intensity of bleaching events will change over the next 100 years. The results suggest that the thermal tolerances of reef-building corals are likely to be exceeded every year within the next few decades. Events as severe as the 1998 event, the worst on record, are likely to become commonplace within 20 years. Most information suggests that the capacity for acclimation by corals has already been exceeded, and that adaptation will be too slow to avert a decline in the quality of the world's reefs.

  3. A world class nuclear research reactor complex for South Africa's nuclear future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keshaw, Jeetesh [South African Young Nuclear Professional Society, PO Box 9396, Centurion, 0157 (South Africa)

    2008-07-01

    South Africa recently made public its rather ambitious goals pertaining to nuclear energy developments in a Draft Policy and Strategy issued for public comment. Not much attention was given to an important tool for nuclear energy research and development, namely a well equipped and maintained research reactor, which on its own does not do justice to its potential, unless it is fitted with all the ancillaries and human resources as most first world countries have. In South Africa's case it is suggested to establish at least one Nuclear Energy Research and Development Centre at such a research reactor, where almost all nuclear energy related research can be carried out on par with some of the best in the world. The purpose of this work is to propose how this could be done, and motivate why it is important that it be done with great urgency, and with full involvement of young professionals, if South Africa wishes to face up to the challenges mentioned in the Draft Strategy and Policy. (authors)

  4. Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2017-05-01

    The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

  5. Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2017-05-01

    The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha -1  h -1  yr -1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

  6. Climate change, future Arctic Sea ice, and the competitiveness of European Arctic offshore oil and gas production on world markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrick, Sebastian; Riemann-Campe, Kathrin; Hoog, Sven; Growitsch, Christian; Schwind, Hannah; Gerdes, Rüdiger; Rehdanz, Katrin

    2017-12-01

    A significant share of the world's undiscovered oil and natural gas resources are assumed to lie under the seabed of the Arctic Ocean. Up until now, the exploitation of the resources especially under the European Arctic has largely been prevented by the challenges posed by sea ice coverage, harsh weather conditions, darkness, remoteness of the fields, and lack of infrastructure. Gradual warming has, however, improved the accessibility of the Arctic Ocean. We show for the most resource-abundant European Arctic Seas whether and how a climate induced reduction in sea ice might impact future accessibility of offshore natural gas and crude oil resources. Based on this analysis we show for a number of illustrative but representative locations which technology options exist based on a cost-minimization assessment. We find that under current hydrocarbon prices, oil and gas from the European offshore Arctic is not competitive on world markets.

  7. Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yutong, Z., II; Wang, T.

    2017-12-01

    Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?Over the past several decades, changes in climate are amplified over the Tibetan Plateau(TP), with warming trend almost being twice as large as the global average. In sharp contrast, there is a large spatial discrepancy of the variations in precipitation extremes, with increasing trends found in the southern and decreasing trends in central TP. These features motivate are urgent need for an observation-based understanding of how precipitation extremes respond to climate change. Here we examine the relation between precipitation intensity with atmospheric temperature, dew point temperature (Td) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) in Tibet Plateau. Owing to the influences of the westerlies and Indian monsoon on Tibetan climate, the stations can be divided into three sub-regions in TP: the westerlies region (north of 35°N, N = 28), the monsoon region (south of 30°N in TP, N = 31), and the transition region (located between 30°N and 35°N, N = 48). We found that the intensity precipitation does not follow the C-C relation and there is a mix of positive and negative slope. To better understand why different scaling occurs with temperature in district region, using the dew point temperature replace the temperature, although there is significant variability in relative humidity values, at most stations, there appears to be a general increase in relative humidity associated. It is likely that the observed rise in relative humidity can assist in explaining the negative scaling of extreme precipitation at westerlies domain and monsoon domain, with the primary reason why precipitation extremes expected to increase follows from the fact that a warmer atmosphere can "hold" more moisture. This suggests that not only on how much the moisture the atmosphere can hold, but on how much moisture exits in atmosphere. To understand the role of dynamic on extreme precipitation, we repeat the precipitation

  8. Physics and technology for future presidents an introduction to the essential physics every world leader needs to know

    CERN Document Server

    Muller, Richard A

    2010-01-01

    Physics and Technology for Future Presidents contains the essential physics that students need in order to understand today's core science and technology issues, and to become the next generation of world leaders. From the physics of energy to climate change, and from spy technology to quantum computers, this is the only textbook to focus on the modern physics affecting the decisions of political leaders and CEOs and, consequently, the lives of every citizen. How practical are alternative energy sources? Can satellites really read license plates from space? What is the quantum physics behind i

  9. Domestic and world trends affecting the future of aviation (1980 - 2000), appendix C

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    The results are presented of a study of variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological, and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis a series of scenarios is developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A scenario is presented which represents the manner in which events will most probably develop and their effect on the aviation industry.

  10. Lessons from two high CO2 worlds - future oceans and intensive aquaculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Robert P; Urbina, Mauricio A; Wilson, Rod W

    2017-06-01

    Exponentially rising CO 2 (currently ~400 μatm) is driving climate change and causing acidification of both marine and freshwater environments. Physiologists have long known that CO 2 directly affects acid-base and ion regulation, respiratory function and aerobic performance in aquatic animals. More recently, many studies have demonstrated that elevated CO 2 projected for end of this century (e.g. 800-1000 μatm) can also impact physiology, and have substantial effects on behaviours linked to sensory stimuli (smell, hearing and vision) both having negative implications for fitness and survival. In contrast, the aquaculture industry was farming aquatic animals at CO 2 levels that far exceed end-of-century climate change projections (sometimes >10 000 μatm) long before the term 'ocean acidification' was coined, with limited detrimental effects reported. It is therefore vital to understand the reasons behind this apparent discrepancy. Potential explanations include 1) the use of 'control' CO 2 levels in aquaculture studies that go beyond 2100 projections in an ocean acidification context; 2) the relatively benign environment in aquaculture (abundant food, disease protection, absence of predators) compared to the wild; 3) aquaculture species having been chosen due to their natural tolerance to the intensive conditions, including CO 2 levels; or 4) the breeding of species within intensive aquaculture having further selected traits that confer tolerance to elevated CO 2 . We highlight this issue and outline the insights that climate change and aquaculture science can offer for both marine and freshwater settings. Integrating these two fields will stimulate discussion on the direction of future cross-disciplinary research. In doing so, this article aimed to optimize future research efforts and elucidate effective mitigation strategies for managing the negative impacts of elevated CO 2 on future aquatic ecosystems and the sustainability of fish and shellfish

  11. Proceedings of the CIB World Building Congress 2004 : Building for the future. CD-ROM ed.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This conference provided an opportunity to exchange information on recent building and construction research. The main issues were arranged into the following sessions: building techniques; buildings and the environment; building processes; sustainable construction; performance based buildings and regulatory systems; revaluing construction; and, construction in developing countries. The presentations evaluated best practices in construction with reference to a wide range of topics, including heat, air and moisture transfer in buildings, roofing materials, energy conservation, building economics, urban sustainability and the future needs of the construction industry. The conference featured 40 presentations, of which 6 have been indexed separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs. ,figs.

  12. Reduced Urban Heat Island intensity under warmer conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Anna A.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Zaitchik, Ben F.

    2018-06-01

    The Urban Heat Island (UHI), the tendency for urban areas to be hotter than rural regions, represents a significant health concern in summer as urban populations are exposed to elevated temperatures. A number of studies suggest that the UHI increases during warmer conditions, however there has been no investigation of this for a large ensemble of cities. Here we compare urban and rural temperatures in 54 US cities for 2000–2015 and show that the intensity of the Urban Heat Island, measured here as the differences in daily-minimum or daily-maximum temperatures between urban and rural stations or ΔT, in fact tends to decrease with increasing temperature in most cities (38/54). This holds when investigating daily variability, heat extremes, and variability across climate zones and is primarily driven by changes in rural areas. We relate this change to large-scale or synoptic weather conditions, and find that the lowest ΔT nights occur during moist weather conditions. We also find that warming cities have not experienced an increasing Urban Heat Island effect.

  13. Will seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) quality change in a warmer ocean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbosa, Vera; Maulvault, Ana Luísa; Alves, Ricardo N; Anacleto, Patrícia; Pousão-Ferreira, Pedro; Carvalho, Maria Luísa; Nunes, Maria Leonor; Rosa, Rui; Marques, António

    2017-07-01

    The impacts of climate change on seafood quality, safety and human health are still unknown. The present study investigated the effect of warming on fatty acids and elements content in two tissues (muscle and liver) of the relevant commercial seabass species (Dicentrarchus labrax). After exposing fish to increased seawater temperature for a period of 60days, higher saturated fatty acid (SFA) levels were observed in fish muscle (2.16% increase); whereas lower SFA levels were observed in fish liver (5.42% decrease). On the other hand, monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) contents decreased in both muscle (1.77% and 0.39%, respectively) and liver (10.54% and 8.11%, respectively) of fish subjected to warmer conditions. Additionally, warming promoted changes in fish elemental profiles, leading to significantly higher levels of Cl in the muscle and lower levels of Rb in the liver. Overall, data showed that fatty acids and elemental contents were affected by temperature, though representing small implications to human health. Moreover, this preliminary study highlights the importance of conducting further seafood risk-benefit assessments under climate change contexts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. WORLD CUP LEGACY AND PERTAINING IMPACTS ON SÃO PAULO CITY´S FUTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Vinicius Cardoso

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Legacies – structures that are built for events and which remain after the same - are one of the major positive aspects paraded by mega sporting events organizers. This study´s purpose is to analyze the current situation of legacies promised by the many governmental instances for the city of São Paulo - host city of Fifa´s 2014 World Cup – and prospect which legacies will become effective in the city. Preliminary assessments may raise construction concerns, alert the public to keep an eye on undertaken obligations and encourage official actions (Mangan, 2008, p. 1,871. Data was obtained from National Audit Court (TCU reports, Ministry and United Nations documents, in addition to testimonials and information gathered from some of Brazil´s major press media. Data analysis was conducted by classifying legacies according to tangible and intangible legacy concepts (Kaplanidou and Karadakis, 2010 followed by an analysis of promised legacies versus current status during the period of analysis. Finally, discussions as to most probable to come about legacies were presented. Results indicate that a portion of promised legacies stand a fair chance of achievement. On the other hand, other projects lag behind schedule or have been cancelled. Preliminary surveys suggest full completion of promised legacies is not possible, there has been an overuse of public resources as opposed to that planned, and provide indicatives as to the investment´s high opportunity cost.

  15. Strategic R and D Planning for an Energy Future in an Interdependent World

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schainker, R.B.; Gellings, C.; Rosinski, S.

    2007-07-01

    This paper presents a summary of key results of a comprehensive analysis of technology R and D needs for the U.S. electric utility industry. It focuses on the impacts of the world-wide interdependencies for the price of gas/oil fuel and the costs for environmental emissions as drivers to define four 'what-if' scenarios that act as a basis to define key R and D topics U.S. electric utilities need to address. This paper is based on past work the U.S. Electric Power Research Institute performed on a technology roadmap, which is a high-level document that provides guidance on strategic technology planning over the next 40-50 years for the electricity industry. However, critical uncertainties over this timeframe - such as fuel prices, the economy, the environment, technology advances, and regulatory policies - complicate effective identification and development of R and D priorities. To address these uncertainties and to develop a nearer-term technology-oriented action plan, EPRI undertook an Electric Power Industry Technology Scenarios project that uses scenario planning to explicitly incorporate uncertainty and focuses on a 20-year planning horizon. (auth)

  16. Cord Blood Banking in the Arab World: Current Status and Future Developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Monica M; Dajani, Rana; Matthews, Kirstin R W

    2015-07-01

    Umbilical cord blood transplants are now used to treat numerous types of immune- and blood-related disorders and genetic diseases. Cord blood (CB) banks play an important role in these transplants by processing and storing CB units. In addition to their therapeutic potential, these banks raise ethical and regulatory questions, especially in emerging markets in the Arab world. In this article, the authors review CB banking in five countries in the region, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, selected for their different CB banking policies and initiatives. In assessing these case studies, the authors present regional trends and issues, including religious perspectives, policies, and demographic risk factors. This research suggests strong incentives for increasing the number of CB units that are collected from and available to Arab populations. In addition, the deficit in knowledge concerning public opinion and awareness in the region should be addressed to ensure educated decision-making. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. OPEC at middle age: facing an uncertain future in the world oil market economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    International institutions, like individuals, groups, and even societies and cultures, pass through various stages in their development as they grow from youth through middle age into more experienced and mature members of the international community. OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is no exception to this generally observable phenomenon on the world economic scene. It has clearly undergone a gradual process of growth over the past three decades or so since its establishment by five founding states in Baghdad in September 1960. OPEC's history since then could be characterized as being divided into three distinct developmental stages. The first decade, the 1960s, was a period of consolidation of OPEC's power over the oil companies and their control over the member countries'oil resources. The second decade - the 1970s - was a decade characterized by almost continuous and prolonged producer - consumer confrontation as well as revelation of some of the more basic cleavages within OPEC as an organization. This was followed by the decade of the 1980s -- a period of relative accommodation between producers and consumers in the interest of longer term market stability

  18. The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area seagrasses: Managing this iconic Australian ecosystem resource for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles, Robert G.; Rasheed, Michael A.; McKenzie, Len J.; Grech, Alana; York, Paul H.; Sheaves, Marcus; McKenna, Skye; Bryant, Catherine

    2015-02-01

    The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA) includes one of the world's largest areas of seagrass (35,000 km2) encompassing approximately 20% of the world's species. Mapping and monitoring programs sponsored by the Australian and Queensland Governments and Queensland Port Authorities have tracked a worrying decrease in abundance and area since 2007. This decline has almost certainly been the result of a series of severe tropical storms and associated floods exacerbating existing human induced stressors. A complex variety of marine and terrestrial management actions and plans have been implemented to protect seagrass and other habitats in the GBRWHA. For seagrasses, these actions are inadequate. They provide an impression of effective protection of seagrasses; reduce the sense of urgency needed to trigger action; and waste the valuable and limited supply of "conservation capital". There is a management focus on ports, driven by public concerns about high profile development projects, which exaggerates the importance of these relatively concentrated impacts in comparison to the total range of threats and stressors. For effective management of seagrass at the scale of the GBRWHA, more emphasis needs to be placed on the connectivity between seagrass meadow health, watersheds, and all terrestrial urban and agricultural development associated with human populations. The cumulative impacts to seagrass from coastal and marine processes in the GBRWHA are not evenly distributed, with a mosaic of high and low vulnerability areas. This provides an opportunity to make choices for future coastal development plans that minimise stress on seagrass meadows.

  19. World Association for the Advancement of Veterinary Parasitology (WAAVP): the 50th anniversary in 2013--history, achievements, and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckert, J

    2013-08-01

    In 2013 the World Association for the Advancement of Veterinary Parasitology (WAAVP) can celebrate its 50th anniversary. At this occasion in this article selected historical data are updated, and the achievements and future perspectives of the WAAVP are discussed. Although the WAAVP is a small association with only a few hundred members, it has been able to develop remarkable activities. Between 1963 and 2011 the WAAVP has organized 23 international scientific congresses, and the 24th conference will take place in Perth, Western Australia, in 2013. These conferences have achieved a high degree of international recognition as indicated by relatively large numbers of participants (up to ~800). Furthermore, the WAAVP has promoted veterinary parasitology in various ways, such as publishing international guidelines (efficacy evaluation of antiparasitic drugs, parasitological methods, standardized nomenclature of animal parasitic diseases "SNOAPAD"), stimulating international discussions on teaching and continued education ("colleges of veterinary parasitology") and by supporting the high quality journal "Veterinary Parasitology" which is the official organ of the WAAVP. In retrospect, the development of the WAAVP can be classified as very successful. New challenges associated with global changes (growth of the world population, urbanization, climate change, new developments in animal and plant production, etc.) will require new efforts in research in various fields, including veterinary parasitology. Future activities of WAAVP may include inter alia: (a) support of international parasitological networks; (b) stimulation of coordinated research aimed at the solution of defined problems; (c) increasing the exposure of WAAVP to parasitology from hitherto neglected regions of the world; (d) strengthening of official links to international organizations (FAO, WHO, etc.); (e) continuation of guideline preparation; and (d) preparation and international distribution of high

  20. A virtual observatory in a real world: building capacity for an uncertain future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Gordon; Buytaert, Wouter; Emmett, Bridget; Freer, Jim; Gurney, Robert; Haygarth, Phil; McDonald, Adrian; Rees, Gwyn; Tetzlaff, Doerthe

    2010-05-01

    Environmental managers and policy makers face a challenging future trying to accommodate growing expectations of environmental well-being, while subject to maturing regulation, constrained budgets and a public scrutiny that expects easier and more meaningful access. To support such a challenge requires new tools and new approaches. The VO is a new initiative from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) designed to deliver proof of concept for these new tools and approaches. The VO is at an early stage and we first evaluate the role of existing ‘observatories' in the UK and elsewhere both to learn good practice (and just as valuable - errors) and to define boundaries. A series of exemplar ‘big catchment science questions' are posed - distinguishing between science and society positions - and the prospects for their solution are assessed. The VO vision of being driven by these questions is outlined as are the seven key ambitions namely: i. being driven by the need to contribute to the solution of major environmental issues that impinge on, or link to, catchment science ii. having the flexibility and adaptability to address future problems not yet defined or fully clarified iii. being able to communicate issues and solutions to a range of audiences iv. supporting easy access by a variety of users v. drawing meaningful information from data and models and identifying the constraints on application in terms of errors, uncertainties, etc vi. adding value and cost effectiveness to current investigations by supporting transfer and scale adjustment thus limiting the repetition of expensive field monitoring addressing essentially the same issues in varying locations vii. promoting effective interfacing of robust science with a variety of end users by using terminology or measures familiar to the user (or required by regulation), including financial and carbon accounting, whole life or fixed period costing, risk as probability or as disability adjusted life years

  1. An uncertain future for lightning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Lee T.

    2018-02-01

    The most commonly used method for representing lightning in global atmospheric models generally predicts lightning increases in a warmer world. A new scheme finds the opposite result, directly challenging the predictive skill of an old stalwart.

  2. Comparing World Economic and Net Energy Metrics, Part 3: Macroeconomic Historical and Future Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carey W. King

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available I use energy cost share to characterize the role of energy in the economy. Specifically, I use an estimate of monetary expenditures for primary energy on an annualized basis for forty-four countries from 1978 to 2010 for natural gas, coal, petroleum, and electricity. I show that global energy cost share is significantly correlated to a one-year lag in the change in gross domestic product as well as measures of total factor productivity. Given the historical reduction in the relative cost of energy (including food and fodder for animate power since the start of the Industrial Revolution, combined with a global energy cost share estimate, I conclude that the turn of the 21st Century represents the time period with the cheapest energy in the history of human civilization (to date. This potential historical nadir for energy expenditures around 2000 has important ramifications for strategies to solve future social, economic, and environmental problems such as reducing annual emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs. Rapidly decreasing annual GHG emissions while internalizing their costs into the economy might feedback to increase energy expenditures to such a degree as to prevent economic growth during that transition.

  3. Nuclear power at present and in the future. Sweden and the rest of the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-06-01

    The report provides by no means a complete picture of nuclear power. There are a number of issues not covered, such as environmental impacts caused by the nuclear plants used (with the exception of the greenhouse gases that highlights some of report), the link with nuclear weapons and waste disposal. The share of nuclear power in Sweden in 2010 is higher than the average for the world The global net installed power of nuclear power in early 2010 was just over 370 GW e distributed over 436 nuclear power plants. In 2007, global electricity generation from nuclear power was about 14 percent of total electricity generation, compared with 44 percent in Sweden. The average availability for nuclear power plants was about 82 percent between 2005 and 2007. During the same period the availability in Swedish plants was lose to 84 percent. The Swedish availability has fallen, in 2004 the availability was comparable to that in Finland, which amounted to just over 94 percent between 2005 and 2007. The expansion of nuclear power may be limited by technical challenges in manufacturing infrastructure and a shortage of skilled labor. There is only a few reactor suppliers in the market and the quality demand of the material is much higher than for other major projects. Whether nuclear power is competitive with alternative investments or not is uncertain. The investment costs for building new reactors is high but the operational and maintenance costs are low compared to many other types of power sources. In an Emission Trading System nuclear power competitivity with fossil options increases. Nuclear power is a power source with low greenhouse gas emissions over its life cycle. Uranium is a limited resource and like other natural resources limited to a number of countries. Most nuclear reactors are also dependent on enrichment of the natural uranium. If an open or closed nuclear fuel cycle is used is crucial for how long the uranium reserves will last and how nuclear energy can grow

  4. Marine microbial ecology in a molecular world: what does the future hold?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Caron

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Advances in genetic and immunological approaches during the last few decades have transformed medicine and biomedical research. The human genome and the genomes of numerous model organisms are now fully sequenced. Initial exploitation of this wealth of genetic information has begun to revolutionize research on these species, and the applications derived from it. Progress in understanding the ecology of microorganisms (including marine taxa has followed closely on the heels of these advances, owing to the tremendous benefit afforded by major technological advances in biomedicine. Through the application of these novel approaches and new technologies, marine microbial ecology has moved from a minor footnote within marine biology and biological oceanography during the 1950s and ‘60s to the focus of much of our present interest in the ocean. During the intervening half-century we have learned a great deal regarding the overall abundances, distributions and activities of microorganisms in the sea. Recognition of the extraordinary diversity of marine microbes, the predominant role that they play in global biogeochemical processes, and the potential for natural or engineered microbial products to benefit humankind, has placed marine microbes in the spotlight of both scientific and popular attention. Our fascination with these minute denizens of the ocean is not likely to wane anytime soon. Recent studies have indicated that we still know relatively little about the breadth of microbial diversity in marine ecosystems. In addition, many (most? of the predominant marine microbial forms in nature have not yet been brought into laboratory culture. Thus, our knowledge is still rudimentary with respect to the spectra of biochemical, physiological and behavioral abilities of these species, and the study of marine microbes will remain a major focus of investigations in marine science well into the foreseeable future. As a large cadre of researchers moves

  5. The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; Mordecai, Erin A.

    2016-01-01

    Now-outdated estimates proposed that climate change should have increased the number of people at risk of malaria, yet malaria and several other infectious diseases have declined. Although some diseases have increased as the climate has warmed, evidence for widespread climate-driven disease expansion has not materialized, despite increased research attention. Biological responses to warming depend on the non-linear relationships between physiological performance and temperature, called the thermal response curve. This leads performance to rise and fall with temperature. Under climate change, host species and their associated parasites face extinction if they cannot either thermoregulate or adapt by shifting phenology or geographic range. Climate change might also affect disease transmission through increases or decreases in host susceptibility and infective stage (and vector) production, longevity, and pathology. Many other factors drive disease transmission, especially economics, and some change in time along with temperature, making it hard to distinguish whether temperature drives disease or just correlates with disease drivers. Although it is difficult to predict how climate change will affect infectious disease, an ecological approach can help meet the challenge.

  6. Nitrous oxide emissions are enhanced in a warmer and wetter world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Production of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer is projected to exceed 200 Tg (1 Tg = 1012 g) N in 2018 – a 25% increase since 2008. The current trajectory of N fertilizer demand is exceeding some of the most aggressive forecasts. Globally, about 4% of the anthropogenic N in agricultural systems is ...

  7. Preparing for a Warmer World: Towards a Global Governance System to Protect Climate Refugees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biermann, F.; Boas, I.J.C.

    2010-01-01

    human history. Millions of people, largely in Africa and Asia, might be forced to leave their homes to seek refuge in other places or countries over the course of the century. Yet the current institutions, organizations, and funding mechanisms are not sufficiently equipped to deal with this looming

  8. Would behavioral thermoregulation enable pregnant viviparous tropical lizards to cope with a warmer world?

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Alcaide, Saúl; Nakamura, Miguel; Smith, Eric N; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique

    2017-09-01

    Sceloporus lizards depend on external heat to achieve their preferred temperature (T sel ) for performing physiological processes. Evidence both in the field and laboratory indicates that pregnant females of this Genus select body temperatures (T b ) lower than 34 °C as higher temperatures may be lethal to embryos. Therefore, thermoregulation is crucial for successful embryo development. Given the increase in global air temperature, it is expected that the first compensatory response of species that inhabit tropical climates will be behavioral thermoregulation. We tested whether viviparous Sceloporus formosus group lizards in the wild exhibited differences in thermoregulatory behavior to achieve the known T sel for developing embryos regardless of local thermal conditions. We quantified field active body temperature, thermoregulatory behavior mechanisms (time of sighting, microhabitat used and basking time) and available microhabitat thermal conditions (i.e. operative temperature) for 10 lizard species during gestation, distributed along an altitudinal gradient. We applied both conventional and phylogenic analyses to explore whether T b or behavioral thermoregulation could be regulated in response to different thermal conditions. These species showed no significant differences in field T b during gestation regardless of local thermal conditions. In contrast, they exhibited significant differences in their behavioral thermoregulation associated with local environmental conditions. Based on these observations, the differences in thermoregulatory behavior identified are interpreted as compensatory adjustments to local thermal conditions. We conclude that these species may deal with higher temperatures predicted for the tropics by modulating their thermoregulatory behavior. © 2017 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  9. The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin D. Lafferty

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Now-outdated estimates proposed that climate change should have increased the number of people at risk of malaria, yet malaria and several other infectious diseases have declined. Although some diseases have increased as the climate has warmed, evidence for widespread climate-driven disease expansion has not materialized, despite increased research attention. Biological responses to warming depend on the non-linear relationships between physiological performance and temperature, called the thermal response curve. This leads performance to rise and fall with temperature. Under climate change, host species and their associated parasites face extinction if they cannot either thermoregulate or adapt by shifting phenology or geographic range. Climate change might also affect disease transmission through increases or decreases in host susceptibility and infective stage (and vector production, longevity, and pathology. Many other factors drive disease transmission, especially economics, and some change in time along with temperature, making it hard to distinguish whether temperature drives disease or just correlates with disease drivers. Although it is difficult to predict how climate change will affect infectious disease, an ecological approach can help meet the challenge.

  10. City transformations in a 1.5 °C warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solecki, William; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Dhakal, Shobhakar; Roberts, Debra; Barau, Aliyu Salisu; Schultz, Seth; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana

    2018-03-01

    Meeting the ambitions of the Paris Agreement will require rapid and massive decarbonization of cities, as well as adaptation. Capacity and requirement differs across cities, with challenges and opportunities for transformational action in both the Global North and South.

  11. Preparing for a warmer world: Towards a global governance system to protect climate refugees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biermann, F.; Boas, I.J.C.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change threatens to cause the largest refugee crisis in human history. Millions of people, largely in Africa and Asia, might be forced to leave their homes to seek refuge in other places or countries over the course of the century. Yet the current institutions, organizations, and funding

  12. Breeding in a warmer world. Evolution of avian breeding time under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gienapp, P.

    2005-01-01

    Het ziet ernaar uit dat de koolmees in Nederland zich niet op tijd zal kunnen aanpassen aan de gevolgen van de klimaatverandering, concludeert de bioloog Phillip Gienapp. Omdat het hoofdvoedsel van hun jongen uit rupsen bestaat, is het relatieve tijdstip van broeden ten opzichte van de rupsen

  13. EcoMobility. Changwon 2011 World Congress on Mobility for the Future of Sustainable Cities. A Series of Local Cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    More than 390 participants from around the world gathered in Changwon, Republic of Korea to share ideas on sustainable mobility and discuss creative solutions for the future. On the occasion of this global multi-stakeholder forum ICLEI published a series of local case stories to showcase leading visionaries for EcoMobility. These local case stories provide a deeper insight into the practices of sustainable mobility and serve as a source of inspiration for innovative transport solutions. Included are 14 outstanding examples from: Ahmedabad, India; Bologna, Italy; Bremen, Germany; Curitiba, Brazil; Freiburg, Germany; Gaevle, Sweden; Hangzhou, China; La Rochelle, France; London, UK; Lund, Sweden; Portland, USA; Seoul, Republic of Korea; Stockholm, Sweden; and Vancouver, Canada.

  14. Serving two purposes: Plans for a MOOC and a World Campus course called Energy, the Environment, and Our Future (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bralower, T. J.; Alley, R. B.; Blumsack, S.; Keller, K.; Feineman, M. D.

    2013-12-01

    We are in the final stages of developing a Massive Open Online Course entitled Energy, the Environment, and Our Future. The course is a broad overview of the implications of the current energy options on Earth's climate and the choices for more sustainable energy sources in the future. The course is founded in concepts explored in the book and PBS series Earth: The Operators' Manual, but it includes more in-depth treatment of renewable energy as well as the ethical issues surrounding energy choices. One of the key aspects of the course is that it is being designed to be taught in two formats, the first, an eight week MOOC through Coursera in Fall semester 2013, and the second, a 16 week online course developed as part of the NSF Geo-STEP InTeGrate program and offered through the Penn State World Campus. The advantage of the MOOC format is the ability to reach out to thousands of students worldwide, exposing them to the science behind important issues that may have a direct impact on the lifestyle decisions they make, while the World Campus course allows us to explore deeper levels of cognition through application of carefully designed pedagogies. The principal difference between the two versions of the course will be assessment. The MOOC will have embedded assessment between pages and end of module quizzes. The InTeGrate course will have a range of assessments that are directly linked to the goals and objectives of the course. These will include active learning exercises built around energy and climate data. Both of the versions are works in progress and we anticipate modifying them regularly based on student feedback.

  15. Future of Pacific salmon in the face of environmental change: Lessons from one of the world's remaining productive salmon regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoen, Erik R.; Wipfli, Mark S.; Trammell, Jamie; Rinella, Daniel J.; Floyd, Angelica L.; Grunblatt, Jess; McCarthy, Molly D.; Meyer, Benjamin E.; Morton, John M.; Powell, James E.; Prakash, Anupma; Reimer, Matthew N.; Stuefer, Svetlana L.; Toniolo, Horacio; Wells, Brett M.; Witmer, Frank D. W.

    2017-01-01

    Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. face serious challenges from climate and landscape change, particularly in the southern portion of their native range. Conversely, climate warming appears to be allowing salmon to expand northwards into the Arctic. Between these geographic extremes, in the Gulf of Alaska region, salmon are at historically high abundances but face an uncertain future due to rapid environmental change. We examined changes in climate, hydrology, land cover, salmon populations, and fisheries over the past 30–70 years in this region. We focused on the Kenai River, which supports world-famous fisheries but where Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha populations have declined, raising concerns about their future resilience. The region is warming and experiencing drier summers and wetter autumns. The landscape is also changing, with melting glaciers, wetland loss, wildfires, and human development. This environmental transformation will likely harm some salmon populations while benefiting others. Lowland salmon streams are especially vulnerable, but retreating glaciers may allow production gains in other streams. Some fishing communities harvest a diverse portfolio of fluctuating resources, whereas others have specialized over time, potentially limiting their resilience. Maintaining diverse habitats and salmon runs may allow ecosystems and fisheries to continue to thrive amidst these changes.

  16. Changes in the world rivers' discharge projected from an updated high resolution dataset of current and future climate zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santini, Monia; di Paola, Arianna

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, an updated global map of the current climate zoning and of its projections, according to the Köppen-Geiger classification, is first provided. The map at high horizontal resolution (0.5° × 0.5°), representative of the current (i.e. 1961-2005) conditions, is based on the Climate Research Unit dataset holding gridded series of historical observed temperature and precipitation, while projected conditions rely on the simulated series, for the same variables, by the General Circulation Model CMCC-CM. Modeled variables were corrected for their bias and then projections of climate zoning were generated for the medium term (2006-2050) and long term (2056-2100) future periods, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Results show that Equatorial and Arid climates will spread at the expenses of Snow and Polar climates, with the Warm Temperate experiencing more moderate increase. Maps of climate zones are valuable for a wide range of studies on climate change and its impacts, especially those regarding the water cycle that is strongly regulated by the combined conditions of precipitation and temperature. As example of large scale hydrological applications, in this work we tested and implemented a spatial statistical procedure, the geographically weighted regression among climate zones' surface and mean annual discharge (MAD) at hydrographic basin level, to quantify likely changes in MAD for the main world rivers monitored through the Global Runoff Data Center database. The selected river basins are representative of more than half of both global superficial freshwater resources and world's land area. Globally, a decrease in MAD is projected both in the medium term and long term, while spatial differences highlight how some areas require efforts to avoid consequences of amplified water scarcity, while other areas call for strategies to take the opportunity from the expected increase in water availability. Also the fluctuations of trends between the

  17. Responsibility for the future of the world-paradigm shift in the theory and practice of marketing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gábor Rekettye

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available En las últimas cuatro décadas muchos estudios científicos fueron publicados sobre los impactos medioambientales que amenazan el futuro de nuestro planeta. Estas manifestaciones apenas han afectado el área de marketing, no ha habido ningún cambio paradigmático. La primera parte del artículo trata de los procesos climáticos que amenazan el medio ambiente y la vida cotidiana de la población, y que pueden ser importantes para la formación del futuro del marketing. Hay una relación estrecha entre el cambio climático y el consumismo que estimula la investigación sobre la responsabilidad y la sostenibilidad del consumo. La segunda parte del artículo trata de esbozar las nuevas tendencias posibles en la teoría y en la práctica del marketing que son necesarias para enfrentar las cambiantes necesidades medioambientales.In the last four decades quite a lot of scientific studies have been published about those dangerous signs which threaten the future of our world. These manifests have only slightly affected the field of marketing; no paradigm shift has taken place. The first part of the paper deals with climate processes threatening the environment and the everyday life of the population, and which may be important in shaping the future of marketing. There is a strong relation between climate change and consumerism enforcing the research about the responsibility and sustainability of consumption. The second part of the study tries to outline those possible new trends in the theory and practice of marketing which are necessary to meet the changing environmental needs.

  18. THEORY OF CREATION AND THE GENETIC INTEGRITY OF THE WORLD – THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY BASIS OF IDEOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. A. Astafyev

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Article describes one of the most difficult problems – the Theory of genetic energy-information unity of the World, according to which the World is the single entity hierarchically organized and directed by the World Creator, appearance of the Creator and creation by Him the Basic Genome of the World (BGW. The integral-dynamic formula of the BGW is described. The World Genome manifests the basic idea of the evolution: it is the code for structural and functional organization and evolution of all entities. The World Genome forms the General Laws of the World. The Theory of genetic energy-information unity of the World is proved the general idea – modern crisis can be transformed by realization of genetic energyinformation unity of the World-Natura-Man.

  19. Teleconnections in a warmer climate: the pliocene perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shukla, Sonali P. [Columbia University, Deptartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States); Chandler, Mark A.; Sohl, Linda E.; Jonas, Jeff; Lerner, Jean [Columbia University, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY (United States); Rind, David [National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)

    2011-11-15

    Migrations toward altered sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the Indo-Pacific region are present in the recent observational record and in future global warming projections. These SSTs are in the form of ''permanent'' El Nino-like (herein termed ''El Padre'') and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-like patterns. The Early Pliocene Warm Period, which bears similarity to future warming projections, may have also exhibited these Indo-Pacific SST patterns, as suggested by regional terrestrial paleo-climatic data and general circulation model studies. The ability to corroborate this assessment with paleo-data reconstructions is an advantage of the warm Pliocene period that is not afforded by future warming scenarios. Thus, the Pliocene period provides us with a warm-climate perspective and test bed for understanding potential changes to future atmospheric interactions given these altered SST states. This study specifically assesses how atmospheric teleconnections from El Padre/IOD SST patterns are generated and propagate to create the regional climate signals of the Pliocene period, as these signals may be representative of future regional climatic changes as well. To do this, we construct a holistic diagnostic rubric that allows us to examine atmospheric teleconnections, both energetically and dynamically, as produced by a general circulation model. We incorporate KE', a diagnostic adapted from the eddy kinetic energy generation field, to assess the available energy transferred to these teleconnections. Using this methodology, we found that relative to our Modern Control experiments, weaker atmospheric teleconnections prevail under warm Pliocene conditions, although pathways of propagation still appear directed toward the southwestern United States from our tropical Pacific sector forcing. Propagation directly emanating from the Indian Ocean forcing sector appears to be largely blocked, although indirect teleconnective

  20. The Shi'ites, the West and the Future of Democracy: Reframing Political Change in a Religio-secular World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A Rees

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available The present article critically reviews Paul McGeough’s important analysis of the most recent Iraq war within a broader consideration of secular-religious relations in international affairs. The thesis of Mission Impossible: The Sheikhs, the US and the Future of Iraq (2004 can be summarised around two ideas: that the US strategy in Iraq was flawed because it wilfully bypassed the traditional power structures of Iraqi society; and that these structures, formed around the tribe and the mosque, are anti-democratic thus rendering attempts at democratisation impossible. The article affirms McGeough’s argument concerning the inadequacy of the US strategy, but critically examines the author’s fatalism toward the democratic capacity of Iraqi structures, notably the structure of the mosque. By broadening the notion of democracy to include religious actors and agendas, and by an introductory interpretation of the Shi’ite community as vital players in an emerging Iraqi democracy, the article attempts to deconstruct the author’s secularist view that the world of the mosque exists in a ‘parallel universe’ to the liberal democratic West. Reframing the Shi’ites as essential actors in the democratic project thus situates political discourse in a ‘religio-secular world’ and brings the ‘other worlds’ of religion and secularism together in a sphere of interdependence. Such an approach emphasises the importance of post-secular structures in the discourses on democratic change.

  1. The evolution of human rights in World Health Organization policy and the future of human rights through global health governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, B M; Onzivu, W

    2014-02-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) was intended to serve at the forefront of efforts to realize human rights to advance global health, and yet this promise of a rights-based approach to health has long been threatened by political constraints in international relations, organizational resistance to legal discourses, and medical ambivalence toward human rights. Through legal research on international treaty obligations, historical research in the WHO organizational archives, and interview research with global health stakeholders, this research examines WHO's contributions to (and, in many cases, negligence of) the rights-based approach to health. Based upon such research, this article analyzes the evolving role of WHO in the development and implementation of human rights for global health, reviews the current state of human rights leadership in the WHO Secretariat, and looks to future institutions to reclaim the mantle of human rights as a normative framework for global health governance. Copyright © 2013 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Pressure Infusion Cuff and Blood Warmer during Massive Transfusion: An Experimental Study About Hemolysis and Hypothermia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poder, Thomas G; Pruneau, Denise; Dorval, Josée; Thibault, Louis; Fisette, Jean-François; Bédard, Suzanne K; Jacques, Annie; Beauregard, Patrice

    2016-01-01

    Blood warmers were developed to reduce the risk of hypothermia associated with the infusion of cold blood products. During massive transfusion, these devices are used with compression sleeve, which induce a major stress to red blood cells. In this setting, the combination of blood warmer and compression sleeve could generate hemolysis and harm the patient. We conducted this study to compare the impact of different pressure rates on the hemolysis of packed red blood cells and on the outlet temperature when a blood warmer set at 41.5°C is used. Pressure rates tested were 150 and 300 mmHg. Ten packed red blood cells units were provided by Héma-Québec and each unit was sequentially tested. We found no increase in hemolysis either at 150 or 300 mmHg. By cons, we found that the blood warmer was not effective at warming the red blood cells at the specified temperature. At 150 mmHg, the outlet temperature reached 37.1°C and at 300 mmHg, the temperature was 33.7°C. To use a blood warmer set at 41.5°C in conjunction with a compression sleeve at 150 or 300 mmHg does not generate hemolysis. At 300 mmHg a blood warmer set at 41.5°C does not totally avoid a risk of hypothermia.

  3. Air quality in Europe during the summer of 2003 as a prototype of air quality in a warmer climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vautard, R.; Beekmann, M.; Desplat, J.; Morel, S.; Hodzic, A.

    2007-01-01

    The extremely warm summer of 2003, with its August heat wave, is taken as a prototype of future summer weather in Europe. The stagnant circulation led to accumulation of heat and pollutants, increased forest fires, and induced high ozone and particulate matter levels. After a description of the meteorological conditions encountered, we review here the effects of the heat-wave meteorology on photochemistry, wild fires, and particulate matter, at the continental and urban scales. We discuss the extent to which this special summer can be taken for projecting air quality in a future warmer climate, especially in the perspective of changes in regional and global emissions. For ozone, the effect of regional reduction of emissions will dominate over summer climate change, but the increase in baseline ozone should significantly raise the mean ozone levels. (authors)

  4. Futures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger S Gottlieb

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In fictional form, this piece explores two possible ways in which the current environmental crisis (in general and climate change (in particular might unfold in coming years. In each case there is great suffering and many things are lost. However, in the first humanity and other species are simply devastated, and little human learning has been accomplished. In the second, a profoundly new appreciation of our connection with and dependence on the natural world has replaced the now dominant attitude and practice of domination and exploitation.

  5. Global surgery for pediatric hydrocephalus in the developing world: a review of the history, challenges, and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muir, Ryan T; Wang, Shelly; Warf, Benjamin C

    2016-11-01

    OBJECTIVE Pediatric hydrocephalus is one of the most common neurosurgical conditions and is a major contributor to the global burden of surgically treatable diseases. Significant health disparities exist for the treatment of hydrocephalus in developing nations due to a combination of medical, environmental, and socioeconomic factors. This review aims to provide the international neurosurgery community with an overview of the current challenges and future directions of neurosurgical care for children with hydrocephalus in low-income countries. METHODS The authors conducted a literature review around the topic of pediatric hydrocephalus in the context of global surgery, the unique challenges to creating access to care in low-income countries, and current international efforts to address the problem. RESULTS Developing countries face the greatest burden of pediatric hydrocephalus due to high birth rates and greater risk of neonatal infections. This burden is related to more general global health challenges, including malnutrition, infectious diseases, maternal and perinatal risk factors, and education gaps. Unique challenges pertaining to the treatment of hydrocephalus in the developing world include a preponderance of postinfectious hydrocephalus, limited resources, and restricted access to neurosurgical care. In the 21st century, several organizations have established programs that provide hydrocephalus treatment and neurosurgical training in Africa, Central and South America, Haiti, and Southeast Asia. These international efforts have employed various models to achieve the goals of providing safe, sustainable, and cost-effective treatment. CONCLUSIONS Broader commitment from the pediatric neurosurgery community, increased funding, public education, surgeon training, and ongoing surgical innovation will be needed to meaningfully address the global burden of untreated hydrocephalus.

  6. Seizing the Future: How Ohio's Career-Technical Education Programs Fuse Academic Rigor and Real-World Experiences to Prepare Students for College and Careers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarino, Heidi; Yoder, Shaun

    2015-01-01

    "Seizing the Future: How Ohio's Career and Technical Education Programs Fuse Academic Rigor and Real-World Experiences to Prepare Students for College and Work," demonstrates Ohio's progress in developing strong policies for career and technical education (CTE) programs to promote rigor, including college- and career-ready graduation…

  7. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  8. Past and future trends in cancer and biomedical research: a comparison between Egypt and the world using PubMed-indexed publications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeeneldin, Ahmed Abdelmabood; Taha, Fatma Mohamed; Moneer, Manar

    2012-07-10

    PubMed is a free web literature search service that contains almost 21 millions of abstracts and publications with almost 5 million user queries daily. The purposes of the study were to compare trends in PubMed-indexed cancer and biomedical publications from Egypt to that of the world and to predict future publication volumes. The PubMed was searched for the biomedical publications between 1991 and 2010 (publications dates). Affiliation was then limited to Egypt. Further limitation was applied to cancer, human and animal publications. Poisson regression model was used for prediction of future number of publications between 2011 and 2020. Cancer publications contributed 23% to biomedical publications both for Egypt and the world. Egyptian biomedical and cancer publications contributed about 0.13% to their world counterparts. This contribution was more than doubled over the study period. Egyptian and world's publications increased from year to year with rapid rise starting the year 2003. Egyptian as well as world's human cancer publications showed the highest increases. Egyptian publications had some peculiarities; they showed some drop at the years 1994 and 2002 and apart from the decline in the animal: human ratio with time, all Egyptian publications in the period 1991-2000 were significantly more than those in 2001-2010 (P PubMed publications, respectively. The Egyptian contribution to world's biomedical and cancer publications needs significant improvements through research strategic planning, setting national research priorities, adequate funding and researchers' training.

  9. Estimation of Future Cancer Burden Among Rescue and Recovery Workers Exposed to the World Trade Center Disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Ankura; Zeig-Owens, Rachel; Moir, William; Hall, Charles B; Schwartz, Theresa; Vossbrinck, Madeline; Jaber, Nadia; Webber, Mayris P; Kelly, Kerry J; Ortiz, Viola; Koffler, Ellen; Prezant, David J

    2018-06-01

    Elevated rates of cancer have been reported in individuals exposed to the World Trade Center (WTC) disaster, including Fire Department of the City of New York (FDNY) rescue and recovery workers. To project the future burden of cancer in WTC-exposed FDNY rescue and recovery workers by estimating the 20-year cancer incidence. A total of 14 474 WTC-exposed FDNY employees who were cancer-free on January 1, 2012; subgroup analyses were conducted of the cohort's white male population (n = 12 374). In this closed-cohort study, we projected cancer incidence for the January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2031, period. Simulations were run using demographic-specific New York City (NYC) cancer and national mortality rates for each individual, summed for the whole cohort, and performed 1000 times to produce mean estimates. Additional analyses in the subgroup of white men compared case counts produced by using 2007-2011 FDNY WTC Health Program (FDNY-WTCHP) cancer rates vs NYC rates. Average and 20-year aggregate costs of first-year cancer care were estimated using claims data. World Trade Center disaster exposure defined as rescue and recovery work at the WTC site at any time from September 11, 2001, to July 25, 2002. (1) Projected number of incident cancers in the full cohort, based on NYC cancer rates; (2) cancer incidence estimates in the subgroup projected using FDNY-WTCHP vs NYC rates; and (3) estimated first-year treatment costs of incident cancers. On January 1, 2012, the cohort was 96.8% male, 87.1% white, and had a mean (SD) age of 50.2 (9.2) years. The projected number of incident cancer cases was 2960 (95% CI, 2883-3037). In our subgroup analyses using FDNY-WTCHP vs NYC cancer rates, the projected number of new cases in white men was elevated (2714 [95% CI, 2638-2786] vs 2596 [95% CI, 2524-2668]). Accordingly, we expect more prostate (1437 [95% CI, 1383-1495] vs 863 [95% CI, 816-910]), thyroid (73 [95% CI, 60-86] vs 57 [95% CI, 44-69]), and melanoma cases (201 [95

  10. Warmer weather linked to tick attack and emergence of severe rickettsioses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Parola

    Full Text Available The impact of climate on the vector behaviour of the worldwide dog tick Rhipicephalus sanguineus is a cause of concern. This tick is a vector for life-threatening organisms including Rickettsia rickettsii, the agent of Rocky Mountain spotted fever, R. conorii, the agent of Mediterranean spotted fever, and the ubiquitous emerging pathogen R. massiliae. A focus of spotted fever was investigated in France in May 2007. Blood and tissue samples from two patients were tested. An entomological survey was organised with the study of climatic conditions. An experimental model was designed to test the affinity of Rh. sanguineus for biting humans in variable temperature conditions. Serological and/or molecular tools confirmed that one patient was infected by R. conorii, whereas the other was infected by R. massiliae. Dense populations of Rh. sanguineus were found. They were infected with new genotypes of clonal populations of either R. conorii (24/133; 18% or R. massiliae (13/133; 10%. April 2007 was the warmest since 1950, with summer-like temperatures. We show herein that the human affinity of Rh. sanguineus was increased in warmer temperatures. In addition to the originality of theses cases (ophthalmic involvements, the second reported case of R. massiliae infection, we provide evidence that this cluster of cases was related to a warming-mediated increase in the aggressiveness of Rh. sanguineus, leading to increased human attacks. From a global perspective, we predict that as a result of globalisation and warming, more pathogens transmitted by the brown dog tick may emerge in the future.

  11. Forecasting the Future Food Service World of Work. Final Report. Volume II. Centralized Food Service Systems. Service Management Reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Thomas F., Ed.; Swinton, John R., Ed.

    Volume II of a three-volume study on the future of the food service industry considers the effects that centralized food production will have on the future of food production systems. Based on information from the Fair Acres Project and the Michigan State University Vegetable Processing Center, the authors describe the operations of a centralized…

  12. World Energy Scenarios 2050: Impact of the Energy Governance Models to the Future of the European Energy Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kisel, E.

    2014-01-01

    World Energy Council has explored the impact of two extreme governance models of energy sector to the global economic and climate developments. Scenario 'Jazz' describes the world, where investments in the energy markets are made by the companies on the purely economic basis. Scenario 'Symphony' describes the world, where decisions about the energy investments are made by the governments. It appears that in case of Scenario 'Jazz' we would reach lower energy prices, but it would also bring along higher and wider consumption of energy, and much higher environmental impact. In case of Scenario 'Symphony' energy prices would be somewhat higher, but environmental and energy efficiency would deliver better results, and there will be more energy-poor people around the world. It can also be observed, that resulting energy mixes of these two scenarios are very different. When Scenario 'Jazz' would leave the share of fossil fuels nearly to the current levels, then Scenario 'Symphony' supports strongly development of Solar and Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Sequestration Technologies. The modelling was also made separately for different regions of the world, the results for Europe can be observed from the report as well. This provides a fruit for thought about the role of the governments in the implementation of the EU 2030 Energy and Climate Strategy. The presentation would describe shortly the methodology of the study, clarifies the assumptions of the scenarios and highlights the main outcomes of the study in for the world and for European energy sector. (author).

  13. FuturICT: Participatory computing to understand and manage our complex world in a more sustainable and resilient way

    OpenAIRE

    Helbing, D.; Bishop, S.; Conte, R.; Lukowicz, P.; McCarthy, J. B.

    2012-01-01

    We have built particle accelerators to understand the forces that make up our physical world. Yet, we do not understand the princi-ples underlying our strongly connected, techno-socio-economic systems. We have enabled ubiquitous Internet connectivity and instant, global information access. Yet we do not understand how it impacts our be-havior and the evolution of society. To fill the knowledge gaps and keep up with the fast pace at which our world is changing, a Knowledge Accelerator must urg...

  14. Commentary on Current Practices and Future Directions for the Assessment of Child and Adolescent Intelligence in Schools around the World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, W. Joel; Kaufman, Alan S.

    2016-01-01

    As documented in this special issue, all over the world hard choices must be made in education, government, business, and medicine. Intelligence tests, used intelligently and with appropriate ethical safeguards, are one tool of many that help make hard choices work out well, or at least better than the next-best alternative (Kaufman, Raiford,…

  15. Towards Quality Higher Education in the Arab World: Challenges of the Present and Aspirations of the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awwad, Mohammad Amin

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims at providing an objective evaluation and transformation of Higher Education in the Arab World with a focus on its contribution to knowledge and human development. It argues that despite the great expansion in the number of higher education institutions and the great increase in the number of students enrolled in them, the needs and…

  16. 75 FR 60856 - The Future of Aviation Advisory Committee (FAAC) Subcommittee on Labor and World-Class Workforce...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... of the global economy. The subcommittee is charged with ensuring the availability and quality of a... socio-economic dynamics of the world's technologically advanced economies. Among other matters, the...: (1) The need for science, technology, engineering, and math skills in the industry; (2) the creation...

  17. 75 FR 54939 - The Future of Aviation Advisory Committee (FAAC) Subcommittee on Labor and World-Class Workforce...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-09

    ... manage effectively the evolving transportation needs, challenges, and opportunities of the global economy... of the world's technologically advanced economies. Among other matters, the subcommittee will examine... science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) skills in the industry; (2) the creation of a culture of...

  18. Effect of warming and flow rate conditions of blood warmers on red blood cell integrity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poder, T G; Pruneau, D; Dorval, J; Thibault, L; Fisette, J-F; Bédard, S K; Jacques, A; Beauregard, P

    2016-11-01

    Fluid warmers are routinely used to reduce the risk of hypothermia and cardiac complications associated with the infusion of cold blood products. However, warming blood products could generate haemolysis. This study was undertaken to compare the impact of temperature of blood warmers on the per cent haemolysis of packed red blood cells (RBCs) heated at different flow rates as well as non-flow conditions. Infusion warmers used were calibrated at 41·5°C ± 0·5°C and 37·5°C ± 0·5°C. Cold RBC units stored at 4°C in AS-3 (n = 30), aged 30-39 days old, were divided into half units before being allocated under two different scenarios (i.e. infusion pump or syringe). Blood warmers were effective to warm cold RBCs to 37·5°C or 41·5°C when used in conjunction with an infusion pump at flow rate up to 600 ml/h. However, when the warmed blood was held in a syringe for various periods of time, such as may occur in neonatal transfusions, the final temperature was below the expected requirements with measurement as low as 33·1°C. Increasing the flow with an infusion pump increased haemolysis in RBCs from 0·2% to up to 2·1% at a flow rate of 600 ml/h regardless of the warming device used (P < 0·05). No relevant increase of haemolysis was observed using a syringe. The use of a blood warmer adjusted to 41·5°C is probably the best choice for reducing the risk of hypothermia for the patient without generating haemolysis. However, we should be cautious with the use of an infusion pump for RBC transfusion, particularly at high flow rates. © 2016 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  19. Short-term acclimation to warmer temperatures accelerates leaf carbon exchange processes across plant types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Nicholas G; Dukes, Jeffrey S

    2017-11-01

    While temperature responses of photosynthesis and plant respiration are known to acclimate over time in many species, few studies have been designed to directly compare process-level differences in acclimation capacity among plant types. We assessed short-term (7 day) temperature acclimation of the maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylation (V cmax ), the maximum rate of electron transport (J max ), the maximum rate of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase carboxylation (V pmax ), and foliar dark respiration (R d ) in 22 plant species that varied in lifespan (annual and perennial), photosynthetic pathway (C 3 and C 4 ), and climate of origin (tropical and nontropical) grown under fertilized, well-watered conditions. In general, acclimation to warmer temperatures increased the rate of each process. The relative increase in different photosynthetic processes varied by plant type, with C 3 species tending to preferentially accelerate CO 2 -limited photosynthetic processes and respiration and C 4 species tending to preferentially accelerate light-limited photosynthetic processes under warmer conditions. R d acclimation to warmer temperatures caused a reduction in temperature sensitivity that resulted in slower rates at high leaf temperatures. R d acclimation was similar across plant types. These results suggest that temperature acclimation of the biochemical processes that underlie plant carbon exchange is common across different plant types, but that acclimation to warmer temperatures tends to have a relatively greater positive effect on the processes most limiting to carbon assimilation, which differ by plant type. The acclimation responses observed here suggest that warmer conditions should lead to increased rates of carbon assimilation when water and nutrients are not limiting. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Accessible tourism futures: the world we dream to live in and the opportunities we hope to have

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleni Michopoulou

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – Accessible tourism is evolving as a field of academic research and industry practice, set within a dynamic social context. The field is interdisciplinary, multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary. The purpose of this paper is to examine key concepts and global initiatives that will shape accessible tourism futures. Design/methodology/approach – Three of the authors have extensive academic experience in the area and the fourth author is the Managing Director of the pre-eminent European Network for Accessible Tourism. In taking a limited Delphi approach to canvassing key areas likely to shape accessible tourism futures, the following concepts and policy initiatives were examined: motivations, dreams and aspirations of people with disability; demography; UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities; destination competitiveness; universal design (UD; and the UN Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. Findings – A discussion of each of the above areas was placed in context to accessible tourism futures and to contextualise the papers that were selected for the special issue. The latter part of the paper outlines the contribution of each empirical paper to the issue discussing the approach, findings and implications. Stakeholder collaboration was identified as the key common theme of the papers and the factor for developing accessible tourism solutions, recognising the value of the market and capitalising on it. A collaborative approach is required to recognise the complementary nature of the different paradigms; to re-shape and transform the future of the accessible tourism industry. To assist in the development of accessible tourism futures, UD principles should provide a foundation to enhance the future competitiveness of tourism destinations and organisations. Originality/value – The paper's examination of the concepts and global policy considerations provides a strong academic and practitioner foundation for

  1. Bioaccumulation and elimination of mercury in juvenile seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) in a warmer environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maulvault, Ana Luísa, E-mail: aluisa@ipma.pt [Division of Aquaculture and Seafood Upgrading, Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere, I.P. (IPMA), Avenida de Brasília, 1449-006 Lisboa (Portugal); Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research (CIIMAR), Universidade do Porto, Rua dos Bragas, 289, 4050-123 Porto (Portugal); MARE – Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Laboratório Marítimo da Guia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Nossa Senhora do Cabo, 939, 2750-374 Cascais (Portugal); Custódio, Ana [Division of Aquaculture and Seafood Upgrading, Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere, I.P. (IPMA), Avenida de Brasília, 1449-006 Lisboa (Portugal); Instituto Superior de Agronomia (ISA), School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa (Portugal); Anacleto, Patrícia [Division of Aquaculture and Seafood Upgrading, Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere, I.P. (IPMA), Avenida de Brasília, 1449-006 Lisboa (Portugal); Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research (CIIMAR), Universidade do Porto, Rua dos Bragas, 289, 4050-123 Porto (Portugal); MARE – Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Laboratório Marítimo da Guia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Nossa Senhora do Cabo, 939, 2750-374 Cascais (Portugal); and others

    2016-08-15

    Warming is an expected impact of climate change that will affect coastal areas in the future. These areas are also subjected to strong anthropogenic pressures leading to chemical contamination. Yet, the consequences of both factors for marine ecosystems, biota and consumers are still unknown. The present work aims to investigate, for the first time, the effect of temperature increase on bioaccumulation and elimination of mercury [(total mercury (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg)] in three tissues (muscle, liver, and brain) of a commercially important seafood species – European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax). Fish were exposed to the ambient temperature currently used in seabass rearing (18 °C) and to the expected ocean warming (+4 °C, i.e. 22 °C), as well as dietary MeHg during 28 days, followed by a depuration period of 28 days fed with a control diet. In both temperature exposures, higher MeHg contents were observed in the brain, followed by the muscle and liver. Liver registered the highest elimination percentages (EF; up to 64% in the liver, 20% in the brain, and 3% in the muscle). Overall, the results clearly indicate that a warming environment promotes MeHg bioaccumulation in all tissues (e.g. highest levels in brain: 8.1 mg kg{sup −1} ww at 22 °C against 6.2 mg kg{sup −1} ww at 18 °C after 28 days of MeHg exposure) and hampers MeHg elimination (e.g. liver EF decreases after 28 days of depuration: from 64.2% at 18 °C to 50.3% at 22 °C). These findings suggest that seafood safety may be compromised in a warming context, particularly for seafood species with contaminant concentrations close to the current regulatory levels. Hence, results point out the need to strengthen research in this area and to revise and/or adapt the current recommendations regarding human exposure to chemical contaminants through seafood consumption, in order to integrate the expected effects of climate change. - Highlights: • Higher MeHg contents were found in the brain

  2. Geothermal Power Supply Systems around the World and in Russia: State of the Art and Future Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butuzov, V. A.; Amerkhanov, R. A.; Grigorash, O. V.

    2018-05-01

    Solar and geothermal energy systems are shown to have received the widest use among all kinds of renewable sources of energy for heat supply purposes around the world. The power capacities and amounts of thermal energy generated by solar and geothermal heat supply systems around the world are presented by way of comparison. The thermal power capacity of solar heat supply systems installed around the world as of 2015 totaled 268.1 GW, and the thermal energy generated by them amounted to 225 TW h/year. The thermal power capacity of geothermal heat supply systems installed around the world totaled 70.3 GW, and the thermal energy generated by them amounted to 163 TW h/year. Information on the geothermal heat supply systems in the leading countries around the world based on the data reported at the World Geothermal Congress held in 2015 is presented. It is shown that China, with the installed thermal power capacities of its geothermal heat supply stations totaling 17.87 GW and the amount of thermal energy generated per annum equal to 48.435 TW h/year, is the world's leader in this respect. The structures of geothermal heat supply systems by the kinds of heat consumption used around the world are presented. The systems equipped with geothermal heat pumps accounted for 70.95% in the total installed capacity and for 55.3% in the total amount of generated heat. For systems that do not use heat pumps, those serving for pools account for the largest share amounting to 44.74% in installed capacity and to 45.43% in generated heat. A total of 2218 geothermal wells with the total length equal to 9534 km (with 38.7% of them for heat supply purposes) were drilled in 42 countries in the period from 2010 to 2014. In Russia, geothermal heat supply systems are in operation mainly in Dagestan, in Krasnodar krai, and in Kamchatka. The majority of these systems have been made without breaking the stream after the well outlet. A cyclic control arrangement is also used. The combined

  3. Development of the energy situation in the world and in Hungary, the future of the nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levai, A.

    1977-01-01

    At present the source of the energy consumption per person increases with 3.6% yearly in the world and this rate is estimated to be 2.8% in 2000. In Hungary the increase of the energy demands was 4.2% and in the following years it will be 4%. The ratio of the hydrocarbons will yet increase and the ratio of coal will decrease till 1980. The amount of the imported energy has always been significant and will further increase. The quantity of the fissile materials is about 1% of the whole energy store in the world. The problem can be temporarily solved by breeder reactors but the permanent solution can be based on solar energy or on the utilization of nuclear fusion. Participation of the nuclear energy in the world's energy production is still 1-2% but it increases quickly. At present the light water reactors dominate over the gas-cooled and heavy water reactors. There are a lot of problems in connection with breeder reactors. (V.N.)

  4. Seeing the World Anew: Educating for a Just and Sustainable Future--New Perspectives for a Catholic Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Maria; Danner-McDonald, Kerry

    2013-01-01

    This article uses three value constructs, Catholic social thought (CST), feminist political economy (FPE) and ecological economics (Eco-Econ) to critique current mainstream economics. Insights from these values open a way to seeing and creating a just, sustainable future. Within this value framework we propose the integration of these themes in…

  5. Viewing the Changing World of Educational Technology from a Different Perspective: Present Realities, Past Lessons, and Future Possibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Martie; George, Ann

    2017-01-01

    This review paper focuses on likely reasons for the rhetoric-reality gap in the use of educational information and communication technology. It is based on the assumption that the present challenges being experienced with educational ICT might be avoided in the future if we look at the current challenges from a different perspective, by revisiting…

  6. 75 FR 42474 - The Future of Aviation Advisory Committee (FAAC) Subcommittee on Labor and World-Class Workforce...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-21

    ... needs, challenges, and opportunities of the global economy. The Subcommittee is charged with ensuring... economies. Among other matters, the subcommittee will examine certain issues affecting the future employment requirements of the aviation industry: (1) The need for science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) skills...

  7. 75 FR 67805 - The Future of Aviation Advisory Committee (FAAC) Subcommittee on Labor and World-Class Workforce...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-03

    ... evolving transportation needs, challenges, and opportunities of the global economy. The subcommittee is... advanced economies. Among other matters, the subcommittee will examine certain issues affecting the future... the FAAC on December 15, 2010: (1) The need for science, technology, engineering, and math skills in...

  8. Past and future trends in cancer and biomedical research: a comparison between Egypt and the World using PubMed-indexed publications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeeneldin Ahmed Abdelmabood

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background PubMed is a free web literature search service that contains almost 21 millions of abstracts and publications with almost 5 million user queries daily. The purposes of the study were to compare trends in PubMed-indexed cancer and biomedical publications from Egypt to that of the world and to predict future publication volumes. Methods The PubMed was searched for the biomedical publications between 1991 and 2010 (publications dates. Affiliation was then limited to Egypt. Further limitation was applied to cancer, human and animal publications. Poisson regression model was used for prediction of future number of publications between 2011 and 2020. Results Cancer publications contributed 23% to biomedical publications both for Egypt and the world. Egyptian biomedical and cancer publications contributed about 0.13% to their world counterparts. This contribution was more than doubled over the study period. Egyptian and world’s publications increased from year to year with rapid rise starting the year 2003. Egyptian as well as world’s human cancer publications showed the highest increases. Egyptian publications had some peculiarities; they showed some drop at the years 1994 and 2002 and apart from the decline in the animal: human ratio with time, all Egyptian publications in the period 1991-2000 were significantly more than those in 2001-2010 (P  Conclusions The Egyptian contribution to world’s biomedical and cancer publications needs significant improvements through research strategic planning, setting national research priorities, adequate funding and researchers’ training.

  9. The energy future in the world at the 21. century; L'avenir energetique mondial au 21. siecle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frot, J

    2006-04-15

    After a presentation of the world context of the energy consumption (the growth, the petroleum and the natural gas last, the greenhouse effect gases impacts on the climate), and the today research and development domains in the energy sector (petroleum, gas, generation IV nuclear reactors, carbon sequestration, renewable energies, hydrogen, energy storage), the author examines, using 4 scenario, the margins of action, the energy efficiency, the Gross Domestic Product de-materialization and the costs. Then he discusses the hopes and problems in the domains of the transports and the carbon sequestration. A special attention is devoted to the energy efficiency importance. (A.L.B.)

  10. When worlds collide: medicine, business, the Affordable Care Act and the future of health care in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wicks, Andrew C; Keevil, Adrian A C

    2014-01-01

    The dialogue about the future of health care in the US has been impeded by flawed conceptions about medicine and business. The present paper re-examines some of the underlying assumptions about both medicine and business, and uses more nuanced readings of both terms to frame debates about the ACA and the emerging health care environment. © 2014 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.

  11. In-line Microwave Warmer for Blood and Intravenous Fluids. Phase 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-02-15

    occuring in the battlefield often requires restoring normothermia and infusion of fluids, such as saline or blood, into the patient. These two...elevation is required to restore normal body temperature in response to hypothermic cardioplegic arrest induced prior to the operation. 6 1.2 System... Microfiltration Devices," Acta Annaesth Scand, 23:40- 45, 1979. [20] K Linko, K Hynynen, "Erythrocyte Damage Caused by the Haemotherm Microwave Blood Warmer

  12. [On academic thought and clinical application of LI Yan-Fang's middle-warmer energy method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Li-Jun

    2010-10-01

    The present paper introduces LI Yan-Fang's middle-warmer energy method from acupoint selection, needling methods, treatment principle and his clinical experiences in treatment of stroke and insomnia etc. The acupuncture prescription of this method consist of Shangwan (CV 13), Zhongwan (CV 12), Jianli (CV 11), Xiawan (CV 10), Shuifen (CV 9), Huangshu (KI 16) and Qihai (CV 6) etc as the main acupoints combined with strict manipulation and depth of needling to treat clinical diseases.

  13. Chemical Hand Warmer Packet Ingestion: A Case of Elemental Iron Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiland, Jessica L; Sherrow, Leighanne K; Jayant, Deepak A; Katz, Kenneth D

    2017-09-01

    For individuals who work outdoors in the winter or play winter sports, chemical hand warmers are becoming increasingly more commonplace because of their convenience and effectiveness. A 32-year-old woman with a history of chronic pain and bipolar disorder presented to the emergency department complaining of a "warm sensation" in her mouth and epigastrium after reportedly ingesting the partial contents of a chemical hand warmer packet containing between 5 and 8 g of elemental iron. She had been complaining of abdominal pain for approximately 1 month and was prescribed unknown antibiotics the previous day. The patient denied ingestion of any other product or medication other than what was prescribed. A serum iron level obtained approximately 6 hours after ingestion measured 235 micrograms/dL (reference range 40-180 micrograms/dL). As the patient demonstrated no new abdominal complaints and no evidence of systemic iron toxicity, she was discharged uneventfully after education. However, the potential for significant iron toxicity exists depending on the extent of exposure to this or similar products. Treatment for severe iron toxicity may include fluid resuscitation, whole bowel irrigation, and iron chelation therapy with deferoxamine. Physicians should become aware of the toxicity associated with ingestion of commercially available hand warmers. Consultation with a medical toxicologist is recommended. Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. The traditional knowledge and the sustainable development - A distant world as much in the past as in the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carmona Maya, Sergio Ivan

    2000-01-01

    In this text, is discussed about of the traditional knowledge and the sustainable development. The central invitation is to meditate about the consistency of a speech that manipulates the call traditional knowledge as an instrument of legitimating of a development system that seeks to fill the current necessities as the sustainable, by means of the use of the natural resources in a careful way, technique, rational and balanced, for not to deteriorate them or to drain them, without committing the capacity that the future generations can satisfy their own necessities

  15. Symposium report: the Waters Bioanalysis World Tour: the broadening impact and future of the DMPK laboratory--addressing large-molecule therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vooght-Johnson, Ryan

    2011-03-01

    An evening symposium was held at the Museu de Historia de Catalunya (Barcelona, Spain) as a precursor to the European Bioanalysis Forum meeting, as part of the Waters Corporation Bioanalysis World Tour. The symposium was chaired by Robert Plumb and Jing Lin (Waters Corporation, MA, USA) with a focus on the future of the DMPK laboratory and its role in addressing large-molecule therapeutics and biomarkers. Lieve Dillen (Johnson and Johnson, Belgium) spoke on ultra-sensitive peptide quantification, Richard Kay (Quotient Bioresearch, UK) discussed quantifying proteins and peptides in plasma, Ian Wilson (AstraZeneca, UK) covered metabolic biomarkers and Robert Plumb concluded the evening with a presentation on the future of MS in DMPK studies. Following the presentations, all the speakers took questions from the audience and continued lively discussion over a cocktails and canapés reception.

  16. The present and future place of nuclear power in the world and its role in relation to environmental risks and energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blix, H.

    1987-03-01

    This speech was delivered at a Seminar on Managing Environmental Risks, 1987. It states and enlarges on the three following propositions: First, that the world will need more energy - not least electric energy - energy savings and modified lifestyles will not be enough to compensate for new needs; Second, that our choice of energy mixes is one of the important factors deciding what future environmental risk and damage we shall live with; Third, that nuclear power offers us one of the most environmentally benign sources of energy generation. The paper points to coal and nuclear energy as the two principal realistic options for future large-scale production of electricity in the world. Questions regarding nuclear safety are discussed in particular the accident at Chernobyl. As regards the use of coal and gas it is concluded that it is imperative to tighten the emission restrictions for environmental reasons. It is also stressed that the use of nuclear power should not be examined in isolation. The Agency's nuclear safety standards are mentioned since they are being reviewed to see if some of them should be updated in the light of lessons from Chernobyl. 2 refs

  17. Shellfish face uncertain future in high CO2 world: influence of acidification on oyster larvae calcification and growth in estuaries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Whitman Miller

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide by 36% during the past 200 years. One third of all anthropogenic CO(2 has been absorbed by the oceans, reducing pH by about 0.1 of a unit and significantly altering their carbonate chemistry. There is widespread concern that these changes are altering marine habitats severely, but little or no attention has been given to the biota of estuarine and coastal settings, ecosystems that are less pH buffered because of naturally reduced alkalinity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To address CO(2-induced changes to estuarine calcification, veliger larvae of two oyster species, the Eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica, and the Suminoe oyster (Crassostrea ariakensis were grown in estuarine water under four pCO(2 regimes, 280, 380, 560 and 800 microatm, to simulate atmospheric conditions in the pre-industrial era, present, and projected future concentrations in 50 and 100 years respectively. CO(2 manipulations were made using an automated negative feedback control system that allowed continuous and precise control over the pCO(2 in experimental aquaria. Larval growth was measured using image analysis, and calcification was measured by chemical analysis of calcium in their shells. C. virginica experienced a 16% decrease in shell area and a 42% reduction in calcium content when pre-industrial and end of 21(st century pCO(2 treatments were compared. C. ariakensis showed no change to either growth or calcification. Both species demonstrated net calcification and growth, even when aragonite was undersaturated, a result that runs counter to previous expectations for invertebrate larvae that produce aragonite shells. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Our results suggest that temperate estuarine and coastal ecosystems are vulnerable to the expected changes in water chemistry due to elevated atmospheric CO(2 and that biological responses to acidification, especially calcifying

  18. WARMER URBAN CLIMATES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF GREEN SPACES IN NORTHERN SIBERIAN CITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Esau

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Modern human societies have accumulated considerable power to modify their environment and the earth’s system climate as the whole. The most significant environmental changes are found in the urbanized areas. This study considers coherent changes in vegetation productivity and land surface temperature (LST around four northern West Siberian cities, namely, Tazovsky, Nadym, Noyabrsk and Megion. These cities are located in tundra, forest-tundra, northern taiga and middle taiga bioclimatic zones correspondingly. Our analysis of 15 years (2000–2014 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS data revealed significantly (1.3 °C to 5.2 °C warmer seasonally averaged LST within the urbanized territories than those of the surrounding landscapes. The magnitude of the urban LST anomaly corresponds to climates found 300–600 km to the South. In the climate change perspective, this magnitude corresponds to the expected regional warming by the middle or the end of the 21st century. Warmer urban climates, and specifically warmer upper soil layers, can support re-vegetation of the disturbed urban landscapes with more productive trees and tall shrubs. This afforestation is welcome by the migrant city population as it is more consistent with their traditional ecological knowledge. Survival of atypical, southern plant species encourages a number of initiatives and investment to introduce even broader spectrum of temperate blossoming trees and shrubs in urban landscapes. The unintended changes of the urban micro-climates in combination with knowledgeable urban planning could transform the Siberian pioneer settlements into places of belonging.

  19. The Future of Freshwater Macrophytes in a Changing World: Dissolved Organic Carbon Quantity and Quality and Its Interactions With Macrophytes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosanne E. Reitsema

    2018-05-01

    heterotrophic bacteria that degrade DOC. Because macrophytes take a key position in the aquatic ecosystem, it is essential to understand to what extent DOC quantity and quality in surface water are changing and how this will affect macrophyte growth and species diversity in the future.

  20. Icebreakers, Fillers y Warmers: actividades breves para la clase de inglés

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramiro DURÁN MARTÍNEZ

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available RESUMEN: En el siguiente artículo vamos a presentar diversos tipos de ejercicios de carácter breve que hemos utilizado en la clase de inglés con el objetivo de facilitar a los alumnos la práctica de la destreza oral. Estas actividades tienen distintos nombres dependiendo de la función que desempeñen: icebreakers, fillers y warmers. Se denominan icebreakers los ejercicios diseñados para romper la tensión que normalmente rodea las primeras sesiones de cualquier nueva actividad, como, por ejemplo, la primera clase de un curso de inglés. Cuando se habla de fillers se enfatiza su función comodín: tareas independientes que normalmente sirven para completar los últimos minutos del horario establecido para la clase de idiomas. El término warmer se aplica a las actividades que se llevan a cabo después de un período vacacional con el propósito de favorecer el reencuentro del alumno con el idioma que está estudiando. El principal objetivo de estos ejercicios es el desarrollo de la capacidad de los alumnos para expresarse de forma oral utilizando la lengua inglesa, concentrándose más en la práctica de la fluidez (fluency que en la precisión (accuracy. Por otra parte, sirven para favorecer la creación de vínculos de unión entre un grupo de estudiantes.ABSTRACT: In this paper, we are going to present a number of short activities that have been used in the English class in order to give students extra speaking practice. These activities were given different names depending on the role they play in the class: icebreakers, fillers and warmers. Icebreakers are fluency practice exercises produced to defuse the tension that the first sessions of every new activity imply: i.e. the first lesson of English. When talking about fillers, we refer to short independent activities that are used when the projected exercises have taken less time than expected. Warmers are also fluency practice activities devised to put students back in touch with the

  1. Can latent heat safely warm blood? – in vitro testing of a portable prototype blood warmer

    OpenAIRE

    McEwen, Mark P; Roxby, David

    2007-01-01

    Abstract Background Trauma/retrieval patients are often in shock and hypothermic. Treatment of such patients usually involves restoring their blood volume with transfusion of blood (stored at 2°C – 6°C) and/or crystalloids or colloids (stored at ambient temperature). Rapid infusion of these cold fluids can worsen or even induce hypothermia in these patients. Warming of intravenous fluids at accident sites has traditionally been difficult due to a lack of suitable portable fluid warmers that a...

  2. Growth Rate Potential of Juvenile Sockeye Salmon in Warmer and Cooler Years on the Eastern Bering Sea Shelf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward V. Farley

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available A spatially explicit bioenergetics model was used to predict juvenile sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka growth rate potential (GRP on the eastern Bering Sea shelf during years with cooler and warmer spring sea surface temperatures (SSTs. Annual averages of juvenile sockeye salmon GRP were generally lower among years with cooler SSTs and generally higher in offshore than nearshore regions of the eastern Bering Sea shelf during years with warmer SSTs. Juvenile sockeye salmon distribution was significantly (P<.05 related to GRP and their prey densities were positively related to spring SST (P<.05. Juvenile sockeye salmon GRP was more sensitive to changes in prey density and observed SSTs during years when spring SSTs were warmer (2002, 2003, and 2005. Our results suggest that the pelagic productivity on the eastern Bering Sea shelf was higher during years with warmer spring SSTs and highlight the importance of bottom-up control on the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem.

  3. Superhabitable worlds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, René; Armstrong, John

    2014-01-01

    To be habitable, a world (planet or moon) does not need to be located in the stellar habitable zone (HZ), and worlds in the HZ are not necessarily habitable. Here, we illustrate how tidal heating can render terrestrial or icy worlds habitable beyond the stellar HZ. Scientists have developed a language that neglects the possible existence of worlds that offer more benign environments to life than Earth does. We call these objects "superhabitable" and discuss in which contexts this term could be used, that is to say, which worlds tend to be more habitable than Earth. In an appendix, we show why the principle of mediocracy cannot be used to logically explain why Earth should be a particularly habitable planet or why other inhabited worlds should be Earth-like. Superhabitable worlds must be considered for future follow-up observations of signs of extraterrestrial life. Considering a range of physical effects, we conclude that they will tend to be slightly older and more massive than Earth and that their host stars will likely be K dwarfs. This makes Alpha Centauri B, which is a member of the closest stellar system to the Sun and is supposed to host an Earth-mass planet, an ideal target for searches for a superhabitable world.

  4. Sin-wai, Chan. The Future of Translation Technology: Towards a World without Babel. London and New York: Routledge, 2017. 302 p.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Kelahan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Chan Sin-wai is a professor and chairman of the Department of Translation at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen. Additionally, he is the director of the Center for Translation Technology as well as the university’s MA Program in Computer-aided translation.  In 2016, he published A New Comprehensive Chinese-English Dictionary, Routledge Encyclopedia of Translation Technology and Routledge Encyclopedia of the Chinese Language. His newest book, The Future of Translation Technology: Towards a World without Babel, is described as “an essential read for scholars and researchers of translation studies and computational linguistics, and a guide to system users and professionals.”

  5. World energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curtis, D.L.

    1990-01-01

    Three major concerns face mankind's future: the impending energy crisis as caused by the depletion of the world's fossil fuel reserves, world atmospheric pollution as caused by the burning of these fuels, and mankind's destruction if the vast energy contained in nuclear weapons stockpiles is released in a global conflict. This paper describes an ambitious, combined solution to these problems by the use of deep underground detonations of thermonuclear devices/bombs to provide a virtually pollution free, world energy source into the far distant future, while achieving a significant increase in mutual trust between the superpowers and all nations. The key is believed to be thermonuclear geothermal stimulation to produce the electrical power needed for a hydrogen economy

  6. OBSERVATIONS (NEW AND OLD ON THE ARMED FORCES IN THE THE ATLANTIC WORLD: CURRENT AND FUTURE THREATS AND CHALLENGES IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FREDERICK M. NUNN

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Confrontations with threats and challenges to the existence of governments and societies have marked the flow of time throughout history. Present and future threats associated, as they are, with historical and traditional challenge are, in many places, of such complexity that they already require new forms of relations between civilian authorities and the leadership of professional institutions dedicated to defense and security. These new relations will have to be based on an understanding of the processes of democratization and globalization as much as on the complex nature of conflicts that affect the security, sovereignty and stability of 21st century nation-states. As formidable as they appear, these threats and challenges may be considered current reiterations of others that mark our histories. In the Atlantic World, nowhere more so than in Latin America, the literature of the military profession has always demonstrated the recognition of lessons of the past applied to problems of the presentation aid in preparation for the future. A principal reason for this is that said literature is in and of itself the product of civil-military collaborations.

  7. Climate Change and Future World

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    of water-borne diseases such as cholera and malaria which, if uncontrolled, could generate epidemics.27 More frequent and more intense extreme 7... Mexico , and the United States. All these trends produced by climate change are likely to increase migration movements to the U.S., and the occurrence

  8. What would happen to Superstorm Sandy under the influence of a substantially warmer Atlantic Ocean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Shi, J. J.; Tao, W. K.; Kim, K. M.

    2016-01-01

    Based on ensemble numerical simulations, we find that possible responses of Sandy-like superstorms under the influence of a substantially warmer Atlantic Ocean bifurcate into two groups. In the first group, storms are similar to present-day Sandy from genesis to extratropical transition, except they are much stronger, with peak Power Destructive Index (PDI) increased by 50-80%, heavy rain by 30-50%, and maximum storm size (MSS) approximately doubled. In the second group, storms amplify substantially over the interior of the Atlantic warm pool, with peak PDI increased by 100-160%, heavy rain by 70-180%, and MSS more than tripled compared to present-day Superstorm Sandy. These storms when exiting the warm pool, recurve northeastward out to sea, subsequently interact with the developing midlatitude storm by mutual counterclockwise rotation around each other and eventually amplify into a severe Northeastern coastal storm, making landfall over the extreme northeastern regions from Maine to Nova Scotia.

  9. Health effects of a warmer climate - a knowledge review; Haelsopaaverkan av ett varmare klimat - en kunskapsoeversikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rockloev, Joacim; Hurtig, Anna-Karin; Forsberg, Bertil [Umeaa Univ. (SE). Dept. of Public Health and Clinical Medicine

    2008-01-15

    Global warming has caused changes that can already be seen and that motivates considerations of the possible adaptation measures needed to protect people and public health. Expert bodies such as the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now conduct model simulations on how the world's climate is expected to change depending on, for example, the emission of greenhouse gases. The Swedish SMHI has provided scenarios for how the future climate in Sweden may develop. These assume an increase in the winter temperature of 3-8 deg C in winter and 1-5 deg C during summer, compared to the period 1961-1990. In addition, these scenarios indicate increased precipitation especially in northern Sweden, a greater risk of drought in Skaane during summer, as well as an increased risk of extreme events such as storms, heavy rainfall and heat waves. The climate change may affect health and its determinants in a number of different ways. The effects may be direct, as in extreme weather conditions, and also indirect, such as the influence of changes in climate and the environment on the spread of infectious diseases as well as the far-reaching effects of changes in other parts of the world. The aim of this overview report is to briefly present our current understanding of how health risks and public health may be affected. The presentations of potential consequences are partly built using knowledge of the associations between climate and health in various regions to draw analogies for areas expected to undergo changes that will make their climate more similar to current conditions in other regions. Distribution of vector-borne diseases can be determined by the type of climate a certain mosquito can survive. In the future we may face outbreaks of diseases that are new to us. Another way of making predictions is to use the observations of how health effects relate to weather variations in one place, for example, temperature fluctuations. In this regard we already

  10. Health effects of a warmer climate - a knowledge review; Haelsopaaverkan av ett varmare klimat - en kunskapsoeversikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rockloev, Joacim; Hurtig, Anna-Karin; Forsberg, Bertil (Umeaa Univ. (SE). Dept. of Public Health and Clinical Medicine)

    2008-01-15

    Global warming has caused changes that can already be seen and that motivates considerations of the possible adaptation measures needed to protect people and public health. Expert bodies such as the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now conduct model simulations on how the world's climate is expected to change depending on, for example, the emission of greenhouse gases. The Swedish SMHI has provided scenarios for how the future climate in Sweden may develop. These assume an increase in the winter temperature of 3-8 deg C in winter and 1-5 deg C during summer, compared to the period 1961-1990. In addition, these scenarios indicate increased precipitation especially in northern Sweden, a greater risk of drought in Skaane during summer, as well as an increased risk of extreme events such as storms, heavy rainfall and heat waves. The climate change may affect health and its determinants in a number of different ways. The effects may be direct, as in extreme weather conditions, and also indirect, such as the influence of changes in climate and the environment on the spread of infectious diseases as well as the far-reaching effects of changes in other parts of the world. The aim of this overview report is to briefly present our current understanding of how health risks and public health may be affected. The presentations of potential consequences are partly built using knowledge of the associations between climate and health in various regions to draw analogies for areas expected to undergo changes that will make their climate more similar to current conditions in other regions. Distribution of vector-borne diseases can be determined by the type of climate a certain mosquito can survive. In the future we may face outbreaks of diseases that are new to us. Another way of making predictions is to use the observations of how health effects relate to weather variations in one place, for example, temperature fluctuations. In this regard we

  11. Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanders, N.; Van Lanen, H. A. J.

    2015-03-01

    Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971-2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow

  12. A Global Perspective on Warmer Droughts as a Key Driver of Forest Disturbances and Tree Mortality (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, C. D.

    2013-12-01

    Recent global warming, in concert with episodic droughts, is causing elevated levels of both chronic and acute forest water stress across large regions. Such increases in water stress affect forest dynamics in multiple ways, including by amplifying the incidence and severity of many significant forest disturbances, particularly drought-induced tree mortality, wildfire, and outbreaks of damaging insects and diseases. Emerging global-scale patterns of drought-related forest die-off are presented, including a newly updated map overview of documented drought- and heat-induced tree mortality events from around the world, demonstrating the vulnerability of all major forest types to forest drought stress, even in typically wet environments. Comparative patterns of drought stress and associated forest disturbances are reviewed for several regions (southwestern Australia, Inner Asia, western North America, Mediterranean Basin), including interactions among climate and various disturbance processes. From the Southwest USA, research is presented that derives a tree-ring-based Forest Drought Stress Index (FDSI) for the most regionally-widespread conifer species (Pinus edulis, Pinus ponderosa, and Pseudotsuga menziesii), demonstrating recent escalation of FDSI to extreme levels relative to the past 1000 years, due to both drought and especially warming. This new work further highlights strong correlations between drought stress and amplified forest disturbances (fire, bark beetle outbreaks), and projects that by CE 2050 anticipated regional warming will cause mean FDSI values to reach historically unprecedented levels that may exceed thresholds for the survival of current tree species in large portions of their current range in the Southwest. Similar patterns of recent climate-amplified forest disturbance risk are apparent from a variety of relatively dry regions across this planet, and given climate projections for substantially warmer temperatures and greater drought stress

  13. Future warmer seas: increased stress and susceptibility to grazing in seedlings of a marine habitat-forming species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernán, Gema; Ortega, María J; Gándara, Alberto M; Castejón, Inés; Terrados, Jorge; Tomas, Fiona

    2017-11-01

    Increases in seawater temperature are expected to have negative consequences for marine organisms. Beyond individual effects, species-specific differences in thermal tolerance are predicted to modify species interactions and increase the strength of top-down effects, particularly in plant-herbivore interactions. Shifts in trophic interactions will be especially important when affecting habitat-forming species such as seagrasses, as the consequences on their abundance will cascade throughout the food web. Seagrasses are a major component of coastal ecosystems offering important ecosystem services, but are threatened by multiple anthropogenic stressors, including warming. The mechanistic understanding of seagrass responses to warming at multiple scales of organization remains largely unexplored, especially in early-life stages such as seedlings. Yet, these early-life stages are critical for seagrass expansion processes and adaptation to climate change. In this study, we determined the effects of a 3 month experimental exposure to present and predicted mean summer SST of the Mediterranean Sea (25°C, 27°C, and 29°C) on the photophysiology, size, and ecology (i.e., plant-herbivore interactions) of seedlings of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica. Warming resulted in increased mortality, leaf necrosis, and respiration as well as lower carbohydrate reserves in the seed, the main storage organ in seedlings. Aboveground biomass and root growth were also limited with warming, which could hamper seedling establishment success. Furthermore, warming increased the susceptibility to consumption by grazers, likely due to lower leaf fiber content and thickness. Our results indicate that warming will negatively affect seagrass seedlings through multiple direct and indirect pathways: increased stress, reduced establishment potential, lower storage of carbohydrate reserves, and increased susceptibly to consumption. This work provides a significant step forward in understanding the major mechanisms that will drive the capacity of seagrass seedlings to adapt and survive to warming, highlighting the potential additive effects that herbivory will have on ultimately determining seedling success. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Women are Warmer but No Less Assertive than Men: Gender and Language on Facebook.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory Park

    Full Text Available Using a large social media dataset and open-vocabulary methods from computational linguistics, we explored differences in language use across gender, affiliation, and assertiveness. In Study 1, we analyzed topics (groups of semantically similar words across 10 million messages from over 52,000 Facebook users. Most language differed little across gender. However, topics most associated with self-identified female participants included friends, family, and social life, whereas topics most associated with self-identified male participants included swearing, anger, discussion of objects instead of people, and the use of argumentative language. In Study 2, we plotted male- and female-linked language topics along two interpersonal dimensions prevalent in gender research: affiliation and assertiveness. In a sample of over 15,000 Facebook users, we found substantial gender differences in the use of affiliative language and slight differences in assertive language. Language used more by self-identified females was interpersonally warmer, more compassionate, polite, and-contrary to previous findings-slightly more assertive in their language use, whereas language used more by self-identified males was colder, more hostile, and impersonal. Computational linguistic analysis combined with methods to automatically label topics offer means for testing psychological theories unobtrusively at large scale.

  15. Women are Warmer but No Less Assertive than Men: Gender and Language on Facebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Gregory; Schwartz, H. Andrew; Kern, Margaret L.; Eichstaedt, Johannes C.; Kosinski, Michael; Stillwell, David; Ungar, Lyle H.; Seligman, Martin E. P.

    2016-01-01

    Using a large social media dataset and open-vocabulary methods from computational linguistics, we explored differences in language use across gender, affiliation, and assertiveness. In Study 1, we analyzed topics (groups of semantically similar words) across 10 million messages from over 52,000 Facebook users. Most language differed little across gender. However, topics most associated with self-identified female participants included friends, family, and social life, whereas topics most associated with self-identified male participants included swearing, anger, discussion of objects instead of people, and the use of argumentative language. In Study 2, we plotted male- and female-linked language topics along two interpersonal dimensions prevalent in gender research: affiliation and assertiveness. In a sample of over 15,000 Facebook users, we found substantial gender differences in the use of affiliative language and slight differences in assertive language. Language used more by self-identified females was interpersonally warmer, more compassionate, polite, and—contrary to previous findings—slightly more assertive in their language use, whereas language used more by self-identified males was colder, more hostile, and impersonal. Computational linguistic analysis combined with methods to automatically label topics offer means for testing psychological theories unobtrusively at large scale. PMID:27223607

  16. Growth tradeoffs associated with thermotolerant symbionts in the coral Pocillopora damicornis are lost in warmer oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunning, R.; Gillette, P.; Capo, T.; Galvez, K.; Baker, A. C.

    2015-03-01

    The growth and survival of reef corals are influenced by their symbiotic algal partners ( Symbiodinium spp.), which may be flexible in space and time. Tradeoffs among partnerships exist such that corals with thermotolerant symbionts (e.g., clade D) resist bleaching but grow more slowly, making the long-term ecosystem-level impacts of different host-symbiont associations uncertain. However, much of this uncertainty is due to limited data regarding these tradeoffs and particularly how they are mediated by the environment. To address this knowledge gap, we measured growth and survival of Pocillopora damicornis with thermally sensitive (clade C) or tolerant (clade D) symbionts at three temperatures over 18-55 weeks. Warming reduced coral growth overall, but altered the tradeoffs associated with symbiont type. While clade D corals grew 35-40 % slower than clade C corals at cooler temperatures (26 °C), warming of 1.5-3 °C reduced and eliminated this growth disadvantage. These results suggest that although warmer oceans will negatively impact corals, clade D may enhance survival at no cost to growth relative to clade C. Understanding these genotype-environment interactions can help improve modeling efforts and conservation strategies for reefs under global climate change.

  17. Our World Their World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brisco, Nicole

    2011-01-01

    Build, create, make, blog, develop, organize, structure, perform. These are just a few verbs that illustrate the visual world. These words create images that allow students to respond to their environment. Visual culture studies recognize the predominance of visual forms of media, communication, and information in the postmodern world. This…

  18. Stronger sexual selection in warmer waters: the case of a sex role reversed pipefish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuno M Monteiro

    Full Text Available In order to answer broader questions about sexual selection, one needs to measure selection on a wide array of phenotypic traits, simultaneously through space and time. Nevertheless, studies that simultaneously address temporal and spatial variation in reproduction are scarce. Here, we aimed to investigate the reproductive dynamics of a cold-water pipefish simultaneously through time (encompassing variation within each breeding cycle and as individuals grow and space (by contrasting populations experiencing distinct water temperature regimes in order to test hypothesized differences in sexual selection. Even though the sampled populations inhabited locations with very different water temperature regimes, they exhibited considerable similarities in reproductive parameters. The most striking was the existence of a well-defined substructure in reproductive activity, where larger individuals reproduce for longer periods, which seemed dependent on a high temperature threshold for breeding rather than on the low temperatures that vary heavily according to latitude. Furthermore, the perceived disparities among populations, such as size at first reproduction, female reproductive investment, or degree of sexual size dimorphism, seemed dependent on the interplay between seawater temperature and the operational sex ratio (OSR. Contrary to our expectations of an enhanced opportunity for sexual selection in the north, we found the opposite: higher female reproductive investment coupled with increased sexual size dimorphism in warmer waters, implying that a prolonged breeding season does not necessarily translate into reduced sexual selection pressure. In fact, if the limited sex has the ability to reproduce either continuously or recurrently during the entire breeding season, an increased opportunity for sexual selection might arise from the need to compete for available partners under strongly biased OSRs across protracted breeding seasons. A more general

  19. Thermal responses from repeated exposures to severe cold with intermittent warmer temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozaki, H; Enomoto-Koshimizu, H; Tochihara, Y; Nakamura, K

    1998-09-01

    This study was conducted to evaluate physiological reaction and manual performance during exposure to warm (30 degrees C) and cool (10 degrees C) environments after exposure to very low temperatures (-25 degrees C). Furthermore, this experiment was conducted to study whether it is desirable to remove cold-protective jackets in warmer rooms after severe cold exposure. Eight male students remained in an extremely cold room for 20 min, after which they transferred into either the warm room or the cool room for 20 min. This pattern was repeated three times, and the total cold exposure time was 60 min. In the warm and cool rooms, the subjects either removed their cold-protective jackets (Condition A), or wore them continuously (Condition B). Rectal temperature, skin temperatures, manual performance, blood pressure, thermal, comfort and pain sensations were measured during the experiment. The effects of severe cold on almost all measurements in the cool (10 degrees C) environment were greater than those in the warm (30 degrees C) environment under both clothing conditions. The effects of severe cold on all measurements under Condition A except rectal temperature and toe skin temperature were significantly greater than those under Condition B in the cool environment but, not at all differences between Condition A and Condition B in the warm environments were significant. It was recognized that to remove cold-protective jackets in the cool room (10 degrees C) after severe cold exposure promoted the effects of severe cold. When rewarming in the warm resting room (30 degrees C), the physiological and psychological responses and manual performance were not influenced by the presence or absence of cold-protective clothing. These results suggest that it is necessary for workers to make sure to rewarm in the warm room outside of the cold storage and continue to wear cold-protective clothing in the cool room.

  20. World Literature - World Culture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Offering their own twenty-first-century perspectives - across generations, nationalities and disciplines -, the contributors to this anthology explore the idea of world literature for what it may add of new connections and itineraries to the study of literature and culture today. Covering a vast...... historical material these essays, by a diverse group of scholars, examine the pioneers of world literature and the roles played by translation, migration and literary institutions in the circulation and reception of both national and cosmopolitan literatures....

  1. Projected changes of thermal growing season over Northern Eurasia in a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Baiquan; Zhai, Panmao; Chen, Yang; Yu, Rong

    2018-03-01

    Projected changes of the thermal growing season (TGS) over Northern Eurasia at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels are investigated using 22 CMIP5 models under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The multi-model mean projections indicate Northern Eurasia will experience extended and intensified TGSs in a warmer world. The prolongation of TGSs under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming is attributed to both earlier onset and later termination, with the latter factor playing a dominating role. Interestingly, earlier onset is of greater importance under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5 in prolonging TGS as the world warms by an additional 0.5 °C. Under both RCPs, growing degree day sum (GDD) above 5 °C is anticipated to increase by 0 °C-450 °C days and 0 °C-650 °C days over Northern Eurasia at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming, respectively. However, effective GDD (EGDD) which accumulates optimum temperature for the growth of wheat, exhibits a decline in the south of Central Asia under warmer climates. Therefore, for wheat production over Northern Eurasia, adverse effects incurred by scorching temperatures and resultant inadequacy in water availability may counteract benefits from lengthening and warming TGS. In response to a future 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer world, proper management and scientifically-tailored adaptation are imperative to optimize local-regional agricultural production.

  2. Not from my world. Responsibility for future generations in the final disposal of nuclear waste; Nicht von meiner Welt. Zukunftsverantwortung bei der Endlagerung von radioaktiven Reststoffen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ott, Konrad [Kiel Univ. (Germany). Philosophisches Seminar; Semper, Franziska [TU Braunschweig (Germany). Inst. fuer Rechtswissenschaften

    2017-09-01

    In Germany the decision on a final repository for nuclear wastes is intended for 2031. The consequences of this decision will concern many generations in the future. Today there is a contradiction between the request of reversibility of all measures and the avoidance of the necessity of continuous activities for future generations. There is no way for a simple solution. The interests of future generations have to be considered as well as the interests of the actual living society.

  3. “To see a world in a grain of sand”: Towards Future-oriented What-If Analysis in Narrative Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sools, Anna Maria

    2012-01-01

    In this article, I explore narrative building blocks for future-oriented what-if (i.e., possibilities-generating) analysis developed in a health promotion study. The aim of this study was to gain insight into future possibilities for good health among participants known for their poor health status.

  4. Solar energy - substitute energy of the future. Energy problems all over the world. Sonne - Ersatzenergie der Zukunft. Energieprobleme in aller Welt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-01-01

    Following some remarks on the current energy situation, with the focus on petroleum and nuclear energy, explanations on a wall-map are given which illustrates in simplified form the key figures of a world scenario for the year 2030 (population-energy consumption) and a solar energy balance. For the scenario, figures of the International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA) were used.

  5. The Changing Dynamics of PhDs and the Future of Higher Educational Development in Asia and the Rest of the World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jambor, Zoltan Paul

    2009-01-01

    Industries in developing countries could counterbalance the western monopoly on higher education by investing more in research at local universities and consequently improving the local human resources talent pools and the overall world rankings of the local universities. What is more, with the perceived lack of necessity for university faculty…

  6. World law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harold J. Berman

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available In the third millennium of the Christian era, which is characterised by the emergence of a world economy and eventually a world society, the concept of world law is needed to embrace not only the traditional disciplines of public international law, and comparative law, but also the common underlying legal principles applicable in world trade, world finance, transnational transfer of technology and other fields of world economic law, as well as in such emerging fields as the protection of the world's environment and the protection of universal human rights. World law combines inter-state law with the common law of humanity and the customary law of various world communities.

  7. Informatics and Nursing in a Post-Nursing Informatics World: Future Directions for Nurses in an Automated, Artificially Intelligent, Social-Networked Healthcare Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Richard G

    2016-01-01

    The increased adoption and use of technology within healthcare and society has influenced the nursing informatics specialty in a multitude of fashions. Namely, the nursing informatics specialty currently faces a range of important decisions related to its knowledge base, established values and future directions - all of which are in need of development and future-proofing. In light of the increased use of automation, artificial intelligence and big data in healthcare, the specialty must also reconceptualize the roles of both nurses and informaticians to ensure that the nursing profession is ready to operate within future digitalized healthcare ecosystems. To explore these goals, the author of this manuscript outlines an examination of technological advancements currently taking place within healthcare, and also proposes implications for the nursing role and the nursing informatics specialty. Finally, recommendations and insights towards how the roles of nurses and informaticians might evolve or be shaped in the growing post-nursing informatics era are presented. Copyright © 2016 Longwoods Publishing.

  8. Achievement of the World Bank loan project on schistosomiasis control (1992-2000) in Hubei province and the challenge in the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changsong, Sun; Binggui, Yu; Hongyi, Liao; Yuhai, Dai; Xu, Xingjian; Huiguo, Zhu; Yong, Jiang

    2002-05-01

    Since the World Bank provided a loan for control of schistosomiasis in China, started from 1992, with the objective of a reduction of prevalence and intensity of the infection both in humans and animals by 40%, through mass chemotherapy in areas of high prevalence, and selective chemotherapy in areas with medium and low endemicity together with focal mollusciciding, the objective of morbidity control of the project has been reached in Hubei Province.

  9. The Evolution of Integrated Close Air Support: World War 2, Korea and the Future of Air-Ground Combined Arms Synergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    employ our assault aircraft temporarily in close support of the armoured force that will be used to break in on the ground, against such objectives as...Masters thesis, 1971, 61. Young Major Ronald Fogleman USAF, a veteran of F-100 “ Misty ” FAC missions in Vietnam, returned stateside and wrote this...World War One Sourcebook. London: Arms and Armour Press, 1992. Holley, I.B. Jr. Ideas and Weapons. Washington, DC: Air Force History and

  10. World-Class Leaders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, Margery

    2012-01-01

    Future leaders' creativity and problem-solving skills have been honed in leadership courses, but that doesn't mean they are ready to use those skills to further a company's place in the world. With emerging markets in Asia, South America, and other areas of the world, a workforce needs to have an understanding of and interest in cultures beyond…

  11. Iraq's future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson, S.

    1998-01-01

    The large oil reserves of Iraq make it an important player in the long-term political energy world. This article briefly reviews the oil industry''s development and current status in Iraq and discusses the planned oil and gas field development. Finally there is a political discussion regarding the future of Iraq in terms of religion, race and neighbouring countries. (UK)

  12. Potential costs of acclimatization to a warmer climate: growth of a reef coral with heat tolerant vs. sensitive symbiont types.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Jones

    Full Text Available One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.

  13. Potential Costs of Acclimatization to a Warmer Climate: Growth of a Reef Coral with Heat Tolerant vs. Sensitive Symbiont Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

    2010-01-01

    One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change. PMID:20454653

  14. Potential costs of acclimatization to a warmer climate: growth of a reef coral with heat tolerant vs. sensitive symbiont types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

    2010-05-03

    One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.

  15. Woody biomass production during the second rotation of a bio-energy Populus plantation increases in a future high CO2 world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liberloo, M.; Calfapietra, C.; Lukac, M.; Godbold, D.; Luos, Z.B.; Polles, A.; Hoosbeek, M.R.; Kull, O.; Marek, M.; Rianes, Chr.; Rubino, M.; Taylors, G.; Scarascia-Mugnozza, G.; Ceulemans, R.

    2006-01-01

    The quickly rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)-levels, justify the need to explore all carbon (C) sequestration possibilities that might mitigate the current CO2 increase. Here, we report the likely impact of future increases in atmospheric CO2 on woody biomass production of three poplar

  16. What Could Be Future Scenarios?-Lessons from the History of Public Health Surveillance for the Future: --A keynote address presented at the 8th World Alliance for Risk Factor Surveillance (WARFS) Global Conference on October 30, 2013, Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Bernard C K

    2015-01-01

    This article provides insights into the future based on a review of the past and present of public health surveillance-the ongoing systematic collection, analysis, interpretation, and dissemination of health data for the planning, implementation, and evaluation of public health action. Public health surveillance dates back to the first recorded epidemic in 3180 BC in Egypt. A number of lessons and items of interest are summarised from a review of historical perspectives in the past 5,000 years and the current practice of surveillance. Some future scenarios are presented: exploring new frontiers; enhancing computer technology; improving epidemic investigations; improving data collection, analysis, dissemination and use; building on lessons from the past; building capacity; and enhancing global surveillance. It is concluded that learning from the past, reflecting on the present, and planning for the future can further enhance public health surveillance.

  17. Potential Costs of Acclimatization to a Warmer Climate: Growth of a Reef Coral with Heat Tolerant vs. Sensitive Symbiont Types

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

    2010-01-01

    One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Kepp...

  18. Securing a better future for all: Nuclear techniques for global development and environmental protection. NA factsheet on comprehensive cancer control: Fighting cancer in the developing world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    For over thirty years, the IAEA has worked in some 115 low and middle income (LMI) Member States to deploy robust radiotherapy and nuclear medicine programmes, expending over US $250 million on cancer related assistance under its Technical Cooperation Programme, with technical support provided by the Division of Human Health. This has enabled many Member States to establish safe and effective diagnostic imaging and radiation therapy capacity to provide treatment and higher quality care to many of their cancer patients. The IAEA also helps establish new nuclear medicine facilities and encourages their integration with diagnostic radiology procedures by facilitating appropriate human resources capacity building. This helps Member States to achieve and maintain high standards of professional practice. The IAEA addresses quality management though services such as the Quality Assurance in Nuclear Medicine (QUANUM), Quality Assurance Team in Radiation Oncology (QUATRO) and Quality Assurance in Diagnostic Radiology (QUADRIL), which allow the IAEA to provide tools for improving the practice of radiation medicine around the world. In 2004, the IAEA established the Programme of Action for Cancer Therapy (PACT) in support of the World Health Assembly's call to action against cancer. It stands as the IAEA's umbrella programme for combating cancer and builds upon the above experience in radiation medicine expertise and technology. PACT works closely with the World Health Organization (WHO), its regional offices and other key players through the WHO-IAEA Joint Programme on Cancer Control. The WHO-IAEA Joint Programme was established in 2009 to enable LMI Member States to introduce, expand and improve their cancer treatment capacities and therapeutic effectiveness by integrating radiotherapy into a comprehensive national cancer control programme.

  19. The Once and Future North Atlantic: How the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period Can Increase Stakeholder Preparedness in a Warming World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, P.; de Mutsert, K.

    2013-12-01

    Paleoclimatic reconstructions, particularly from periods that may serve as an analog to the present and future greenhouse-driven warming, are increasingly being used to validate climate models as well as to provide constraints on broad impacts such as global temperature and sea level change. However, paleoclimatic data remains under-utilized in decision-making processes by stakeholders, who typically rely on scenarios produced by computer models or naive extrapolation of present trends. We hope to increase the information available to stakeholders by incorporating paleoclimatic data from the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, ~3ma) into a fisheries model of the North Atlantic. North Atlantic fisheries are economically important and are expected to be sensitive to climatic change. State of the art climate models remain unable to realistically simulate the North Atlantic, both over the observational record as well as during times in the geologic past such as the mPWP. Given that the mPWP shares many of the same boundary conditions as those likely to be seen in the near future, we seek to answer the question 'What if the climate of the future looks more like the climate of the past?' relative to what state of the art computer models currently project. To that end we have created a suite of future North Atlantic Ocean scenarios using output from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 modeling experiments, as well as the PRISM group's Mid-Pliocene ocean reconstruction. We use these scenarios to drive an ecosystem-based fisheries model using the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) software to identify differences between the scenarios as the North Atlantic Ocean changes through time. Additionally, we examine the spatial component of these differences by using the Ecospace module of EwE. Whereas the Ecosim realizations are intended to capture the dynamic response to changing oceanographic parameters (SST, SSS, DO) over time, the Ecospace experiments are intended to explore the impact of different

  20. Intra-operative warming with a forced-air warmer in preventing hypothermia after tourniquet deflation in elderly patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Y-S; Jeon, Y-S; Lee, J-A; Park, W-K; Koh, H-S; Joo, J-D; In, J-H; Seo, K-W

    2009-01-01

    This randomized, single-blind study aimed to explore the effects of intra-operative warming with a forced-air warmer in the prevention of hypothermia after tourniquet deflation in elderly patients undergoing unilateral total knee replacement arthroplasty under general anaesthesia. Patients were randomized to receive either intra-operative warming using a forced-air warmer with an upper body blanket (warming group; n = 12) or no intra-operative warming (nonwarming group; n = 12). Oesophageal temperature was measured as core body temperature. At 30 min following tourniquet inflation, the core body temperature started to increase in the warming group whereas it continued to drop in the non-warming group. This difference was statistically significant. The final core body temperature after tourniquet deflation was significantly higher in the warming group (mean +/- SD 36.1 +/- 0.2 degrees C) than in the non-warming group (35.4 +/- 0.3 degrees C). Intra-operative forced-air warming increased the core body temperature before tourniquet deflation and prevented subsequent hypothermia in elderly patients under general anaesthesia.

  1. Warm and touching tears: tearful individuals are perceived as warmer because we assume they feel moved and touched.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zickfeld, Janis H; Schubert, Thomas W

    2018-01-31

    Recent work investigated the inter-individual functions of emotional tears in depth. In one study (Van de Ven, N., Meijs, M. H. J., & Vingerhoets, A. (2017). What emotional tears convey: Tearful individuals are seen as warmer, but also as less competent. British Journal of Social Psychology, 56(1), 146-160. Https://doi.org/10.1111/bjso.12162) tearful individuals were rated as warmer, and participants expressed more intentions to approach and help such individuals. Simultaneously, tearful individuals were rated as less competent, and participants expressed less intention to work with the depicted targets. While tearful individuals were perceived as sadder, perceived sadness mediated only the effect on competence, but not on warmth. We argue that tearful individuals might be perceived as warm because they are perceived as feeling moved and touched. We ran a pre-registered extended replication of Van de Ven et al. Results replicate the warmth and helping findings, but not the competence and work effects. The increase in warmth ratings was completely mediated by perceiving feeling moved and touched. Possible functions of feeling moved and touched with regard to emotional tears are discussed.

  2. Regional Suppression of Bactrocera Fruit Flies (Diptera: Tephritidae in the Pacific through Biological Control and Prospects for Future Introductions into Other Areas of the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger I. Vargas

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Bactrocera fruit fly species are economically important throughout the Pacific. The USDA, ARS U.S. Pacific Basin Agricultural Research Center has been a world leader in promoting biological control of Bactrocera spp. that includes classical, augmentative, conservation and IPM approaches. In Hawaii, establishment of Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coquillett in 1895 resulted in the introduction of the most successful parasitoid, Psyttalia fletcheri (Silvestri; similarly, establishment of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel in 1945 resulted in the introduction of 32 natural enemies of which Fopius arisanus (Sonan, Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Ashmead and Fopius vandenboschi (Fullaway were most successful. Hawaii has also been a source of parasitoids for fruit fly control throughout the Pacific region including Australia, Pacific Island Nations, Central and South America, not only for Bactrocera spp. but also for Ceratitis and Anastrepha spp. Most recently, in 2002, F. arisanus was introduced into French Polynesia where B. dorsalis had invaded in 1996. Establishment of D. longicaudata into the new world has been important to augmentative biological control releases against Anastrepha spp. With the rapid expansion of airline travel and global trade there has been an alarming spread of Bactrocera spp. into new areas of the world (i.e., South America and Africa. Results of studies in Hawaii and French Polynesia, support parasitoid introductions into South America and Africa, where B. carambolae and B. invadens, respectively, have become established. In addition, P. fletcheri is a candidate for biological control of B. cucurbitae in Africa. We review past and more

  3. Wildlife as reservoirs for vector borne diseases in a warmer Scandinavian climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Rene; Kristensen, Birgit

    can be attributed global warming. Some of these new infections have important reservoirs in wild animals and this may affect prevention and control of outbreaks in humans and domestic animals. This may also put wild animals at risk of not just infections but also of control efforts targeted...... of the future risk of outbreaks in the Nordic countries. DTU Veterinary Institute is developing a system for continuous risk assessment of potential spread of exotic insect borne diseases of veterinary and human importance. Mathematical models for selected vector borne diseases are continuously updated...

  4. The future of scientific, technical and industrial information to Third World users - A donors view. The experience of the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broadbent, K.P.; Lafond, R.

    1990-05-01

    Access to scientific information by poorer countries, sometimes referred to as the ''South'', is limited in contrast to the countries in the ''North''. The South lacks the infrastructure, management and technical expertise to develop and support the range of services now commonplace in the information rich industrial countries of the ''North''. The programme of support to information systems and services in poorer countries by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) is described with specific examples drawn from its industry and technology information programme. Third world countries are in a difficult position and need help to keep on the cutting edge of new information-communication technologies. Any help, however must focus on such factors as persistence, impact and sustainability of information systems and services. (author). 5 refs

  5. The future of scientific, technical and industrial information to Third World users - A donors view. The experience of the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broadbent, K P [International Development Research Centre, Ottawa (Canada). Science and Technology Information; Lafond, R [International Development Research Centre, Ottawa (Canada). Industry and Technology Programme

    1990-05-01

    Access to scientific information by poorer countries, sometimes referred to as the ``South``, is limited in contrast to the countries in the ``North``. The South lacks the infrastructure, management and technical expertise to develop and support the range of services now commonplace in the information rich industrial countries of the ``North``. The programme of support to information systems and services in poorer countries by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) is described with specific examples drawn from its industry and technology information programme. Third world countries are in a difficult position and need help to keep on the cutting edge of new information-communication technologies. Any help, however must focus on such factors as persistence, impact and sustainability of information systems and services. (author). 5 refs.

  6. Securing a better future for all: Nuclear techniques for global development and environmental protection. NA factsheet on human health: Improving health around the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    Every year, millions of nuclear medical examinations are conducted around the world using radiopharmaceuticals that assess diseases at molecular levels. Diagnostic images are then generated to help diagnose and treat major disorders and illnesses such as heart disease and cancer. Positron emission tomography in oncology and single photon emission tomography in cardiology (as well as in other areas) provide unique functional information that, when combined with anatomical data obtained by magnetic resonance imaging or computed tomography, allow for more precise localization of cancer or cardiac abnormalities. By facilitating appropriate human resources capacity building, the IAEA helps to establish new, and improve existing, nuclear medicine facilities, and encourages nuclear medicine imaging integration with diagnostic radiology procedures, thus helping its Member States to achieve and maintain high standards of professional practice.

  7. Changing Drought Risk in a Warming World - Using Event Attribution Methods to Explore Changing Likelihoods of Drought in East Africa in the Past, Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Keefe, S. A.; Li, S.; Otto, F. E. L.

    2017-12-01

    East Africa is particularly vulnerable to potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, due to the particular climatic forces at play in the region and the population's dependence on rain fed agriculture. However large natural inter-annual variability in the region has made the detection and attribution of anthropogenic forcing a challenge. Making use of the design and implementation of the HAPPI project (happimip.org) in which large ensembles of atmosphere-only models are run under historic, 1.5 and 2 C conditions (Mitchell et al., 2017) we estimate current and future changes in the probability of drought in different regions to occur. Attribution of present day changes are examined alongside future conditions allowing for the first time a seamless analysis of how the risk of droughts in this highly vulnerable region changes. The large ensemble multi-model framework in the HAPPI design allows for a more robust estimation of extremes than ever before while at the same time providing a confidence estimate depending on the specific model used.

  8. Reflexiones en torno a la financiación actual y futura de las universidades a nivel mundial Considerations about present and future university financing world wide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco López Segrera

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Durante la pasada década, las posiciones del Banco Mundial se orientaron hacia la defensa de la orientación competitiva y de mercado de la educación superior, mientras que UNESCO reafirmó el estatuto de servicio público de ella y abogó por mantener un importante financiamiento estatal, con el objetivo de desarrollar una educación superior igualmente accesible a todos sobre la base del mérito. Este artículo es un ejercicio de educación superior internacional comparada. Presenta reflexiones sobre todo respecto a los siguientes temas: principales tendencias globales de la educación superior; modelos mundiales de financiamiento; visión global del financiamiento de las universidades; financiamiento, políticas de educación superior, cooperación internacional e internacionalización; financiamiento de la educación superior en Europa. En resumen, concluye que diversificar las fuentes de financiamiento es positivo y necesario, pero esto no debe implicar una reducción o abdicación del Estado en el financiamiento de la educación terciaria.During the past decade, the World Bank's higher education guidelines were geared towards competition and the market place, while Unesco reaffirmed the statute of its public service and advocated the importance of State financing, with the purpose of developing a higher education that is equally accessible to all and based on merit. This article is a comparison of international higher education. It presents considerations on the following topics: main global tendencies for higher education; world models of financing; global vision of university financing; financing, higher education policies, international cooperation and internationalization; higher education financing in Europe. In short, it concludes that diversifying the sources of financing is both positive and necessary, though this must not imply a reduction or abdication of the State in the financing of higher education.

  9. Projections of European summer tourism demand at a +2 degrees warmer climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grillakis, Manolis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Tsanis, Ioannis; Jacob, Daniela

    2015-04-01

    Tourism is a billion euros industry for Europe and especially for the southern countries for which summer tourism is an important contribution to their GDP. It is highly dependent on the climate and any future changes will alter the favorability of European destinations. The impact of a potential global temperature increase of 1.5 and 2 degrees on European tourism was investigated in the frame of IMPACT2C FP7 project. Climate information from four ENSEMBLES and five Euro-CORDEX RCMs were used to estimate the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) under the A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The monthly averages of the historical TCI estimates were correlated to the recorded monthly averages of overnight stays for all considered NUTS3 regions in Europe. The correlation proved to be significantly high for the majority of these regions with higher values for the European South, while the lowest correlation was attained for Sweden Denmark and Austria. The correlation estimates was then used to provide information about the change in tourism activity due to changes in the future climate favorability through the TCI. The results show that for the May to October "summer tourism" season, and under +1.5 and +2 degrees climate the potential overnight stays are projected to increase in average in almost the entire European domain, except Cyprus which exhibits a consistent decrease, robust across all scenarios. In contrast, for the peak of the summer season between June and August, it is projected that the European south will potentially exhibit decrease in the overnight stays to as high as 20% and for some cases to even higher than 30% (Greece). Key strength of the results are the correlation of measured tourism indicators to a conceptual index, which gives the ability to quantify the change in the tourism indicator, rather than investigating the coarser concept of climate risk.

  10. How to Engage Children into the World of Traditional Car Brands? Exploration of Specific Touchpoints between Future Buyers in the Car Industry and Established Brands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamila Mikolajová

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to define the consumer journey of children through their childhood stages and provide specific touchpoints relevant for a given age, which could be integrated into the marketing communication of car brands to start building this young audience as future buyers. A qualitative study of children in different age brackets was used to identify their current and potential touchpoints with the car industry. The results of the study present specific stands on the prepurchase stage of the children’s consumer journey where the brand might interact with children and build the long-term positive attitudes of this group of potential customers. Specific implications for the industry in terms of understanding the language of the mobile game applications, computer games, YouTubers and integrating those specific activities into the brand’s marketing communication are highlighted for the car industry marketers.

  11. Current status of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever in the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region: issues, challenges, and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Abri, Seif S; Abaidani, Idris Al; Fazlalipour, Mehdi; Mostafavi, Ehsan; Leblebicioglu, Hakan; Pshenichnaya, Natalia; Memish, Ziad A; Hewson, Roger; Petersen, Eskild; Mala, Peter; Nhu Nguyen, Tran Minh; Rahman Malik, Mamunur; Formenty, Pierre; Jeffries, Rosanna

    2017-05-01

    Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is the most widespread, tick-borne viral disease affecting humans. The disease is endemic in many regions, such as Africa, Asia, Eastern and Southern Europe, and Central Asia. Recently, the incidence of CCHF has increased rapidly in the countries of the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region (WHO EMR), with sporadic human cases and outbreaks of CCHF being reported from a number of countries in the region. Despite the rapidly growing incidence of the disease, there are currently no accurate data on the burden of the disease in the region due to the different surveillance systems used for CCHF in these countries. In an effort to increase our understanding of the epidemiology and risk factors for the transmission of the CCHF virus (CCHFV; a Nairovirus of the family Bunyaviridae) in the WHO EMR, and to identify the current knowledge gaps that are hindering effective control interventions, a sub-regional meeting was organized in Muscat, Oman, from December 7 to 9, 2015. This article summarizes the current knowledge of the disease in the region, identifies the knowledge gaps that present challenges for the prevention and control of CCHFV, and details a strategic framework for research and development activities that would be necessary to curb the ongoing and new threats posed by CCHFV. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  12. Hurdles to the global antipolio campaign in Pakistan: an outline of the current status and future prospects to achieve a polio free world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Tariq; Qazi, Javaria

    2013-08-01

    The Global Polio Eradication Initiative to eradicate polio completely by the year 2000 has been successful, except for three endemic and some non-endemic countries. Pakistan, one of the three endemic polio reservoirs, is posing a serious threat to the success of the initiative. Currently, the expanded programme on immunisation has been geared to win the race over polio virus in Pakistan. After the remarkable decrease in polio cases from 198 in 2011 to only 58 in 2012, Pakistan seemed to be at the verge of success. However, hurdles continue to retard the campaign. The war against terrorism, misconceptions about polio vaccine, religious misinterpretations, frustration among vaccinators, lack of awareness, social considerations, natural calamities, inaccessibility, and inefficient vaccines and so on are continually rupturing the foundations of the worldwide initiative in the country. Weak health management is found at the hub of majority of the challenges. Stricter policies, well managed and supervised plans and strategic actions, risk analysis and enhanced communication may help giving the final punch to polio virus in the country. Analysis suggested that there is some literature available on the challenges to polio elimination, yet there is not a single publication up to date that considers all the possible hurdles in a single manuscript. This paper sorts out the breaches that hamper the goal of eliminating polio from Pakistan. We have evaluated all the possible barriers and explained them with a perspective that will help develop area specific strategies against polio virus and thus eradicate polio virus from the world.

  13. Comparative analysis of the spatial organisation of the Catholic Church on the Croatian Adriatic coast. Changes after World War II and perspectives for its future reorganisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Kajinić

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines the changes in the organisation of the Catholic Church in Istria, Kvarner and Dalmatia after World War II. A detailed analysis of the circumstances that lead to the establishment of the Rijeka Diocese, Archdiocese and Metropolitan Archdiocese, ecclesiastical union of the Istrian region in Croatia, the abolition of the Zadar Metropolitan Archdiocese, the raising of the Split-Makarska Diocese to an Archdiocese, and the establishment of the Split Metropolitan Archdiocese. The principles upon which the Church reorganisation in the spatial sense are considered, and presents new insights, particularly for the Croatian dimension. The second part of the paper gives a comparative analysis of the spatial organisation of the Catholic Church on the Croatian coast of the Adriatic Sea, with other countries. Examples were selected based on compatibility of different factors, with consideration to the historical context of events and their causes. To that aim, specific examples of the church administration in France and Italy are given. Using these examples and documents of church archives and official records and documents of the Catholic Church, this paper gives a final overview of the possibilities for the reorganisation of the church administration on the Croatian Adriatic coast.

  14. Current status of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever in the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region: issues, challenges, and future directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seif S. Al-Abri

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF is the most widespread, tick-borne viral disease affecting humans. The disease is endemic in many regions, such as Africa, Asia, Eastern and Southern Europe, and Central Asia. Recently, the incidence of CCHF has increased rapidly in the countries of the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region (WHO EMR, with sporadic human cases and outbreaks of CCHF being reported from a number of countries in the region. Despite the rapidly growing incidence of the disease, there are currently no accurate data on the burden of the disease in the region due to the different surveillance systems used for CCHF in these countries. In an effort to increase our understanding of the epidemiology and risk factors for the transmission of the CCHF virus (CCHFV; a Nairovirus of the family Bunyaviridae in the WHO EMR, and to identify the current knowledge gaps that are hindering effective control interventions, a sub-regional meeting was organized in Muscat, Oman, from December 7 to 9, 2015. This article summarizes the current knowledge of the disease in the region, identifies the knowledge gaps that present challenges for the prevention and control of CCHFV, and details a strategic framework for research and development activities that would be necessary to curb the ongoing and new threats posed by CCHFV.

  15. Comparative analysis of the spatial organisation of the Catholic Church on the Croatian Adriatic coast. Changes after World War II and perspectives for its future reorganisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Kajinić

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines the changes in the organisation of the Catholic Church in Istria, Kvarner and Dalmatia after World War II. A detailed analysis of the circumstances that lead to the establishment of the Rijeka Diocese, Archdiocese and Metropolitan Archdiocese, ecclesiastical union of the Istrian region in Croatia, the abolition of the Zadar Metropolitan Archdiocese, the raising of the Split-Makarska Diocese to an Archdiocese, and the establishment of the Split Metropolitan Archdiocese. The principles upon which the Church reorganisation in the spatial sense are considered, and presents new insights, particularly for the Croatian dimension. The second part of the paper gives a comparative analysis of the spatial organisation of the Catholic Church on the Croatian coast of the Adriatic Sea, with other countries. Examples were selected based on compatibility of different factors, with consideration to the historical context of events and their causes. To that aim, specific examples of the church administration in France and Italy are given. Using these examples and documents of church archives and official records and documents of the Catholic Church, this paper gives a final overview of the possibilities for the reorganisation of the church administration on the Croatian Adriatic coast.

  16. Paleo-Antarctic rainforest into the modern Old World tropics: the rich past and threatened future of the "southern wet forest survivors".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooyman, Robert M; Wilf, Peter; Barreda, Viviana D; Carpenter, Raymond J; Jordan, Gregory J; Sniderman, J M Kale; Allen, Andrew; Brodribb, Timothy J; Crayn, Darren; Feild, Taylor S; Laffan, Shawn W; Lusk, Christopher H; Rossetto, Maurizio; Weston, Peter H

    2014-12-01

    • Have Gondwanan rainforest floral associations survived? Where do they occur today? Have they survived continuously in particular locations? How significant is their living floristic signal? We revisit these classic questions in light of significant recent increases in relevant paleobotanical data.• We traced the extinction and persistence of lineages and associations through the past across four now separated regions-Australia, New Zealand, Patagonia, and Antarctica-using fossil occurrence data from 63 well-dated Gondwanan rainforest sites and 396 constituent taxa. Fossil sites were allocated to four age groups: Cretaceous, Paleocene-Eocene, Neogene plus Oligocene, and Pleistocene. We compared the modern and ancient distributions of lineages represented in the fossil record to see if dissimilarity increased with time. We quantified similarity-dissimilarity of composition and taxonomic structure among fossil assemblages, and between fossil and modern assemblages.• Strong similarities between ancient Patagonia and Australia confirmed shared Gondwanan rainforest history, but more of the lineages persisted in Australia. Samples of ancient Australia grouped with the extant floras of Australia, New Guinea, New Caledonia, Fiji, and Mt. Kinabalu. Decreasing similarity through time among the regional floras of Antarctica, Patagonia, New Zealand, and southern Australia reflects multiple extinction events.• Gondwanan rainforest lineages contribute significantly to modern rainforest community assembly and often co-occur in widely separated assemblages far from their early fossil records. Understanding how and where lineages from ancient Gondwanan assemblages co-occur today has implications for the conservation of global rainforest vegetation, including in the Old World tropics. © 2014 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

  17. Increased fitness of a key appendicularian zooplankton species under warmer, acidified seawater conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Marie Bouquet

    Full Text Available Ocean warming and acidification (OA may alter the fitness of species in marine pelagic ecosystems through community effects or direct physiological impacts. We used the zooplanktonic appendicularian, Oikopleura dioica, to assess temperature and pH effects at mesocosm and microcosm scales. In mesocosms, both OA and warming positively impacted O. dioica abundance over successive generations. In microcosms, the positive impact of OA, was observed to result from increased fecundity. In contrast, increased pH, observed for example during phytoplankton blooms, reduced fecundity. Oocyte fertility and juvenile development were equivalent under all pH conditions, indicating that the positive effect of lower pH on O. dioica abundance was principally due to increased egg number. This effect was influenced by food quantity and quality, supporting possible improved digestion and assimilation at lowered pH. Higher temperature resulted in more rapid growth, faster maturation and earlier reproduction. Thus, increased temperature and reduced pH had significant positive impacts on O. dioica fitness through increased fecundity and shortened generation time, suggesting that predicted future ocean conditions may favour this zooplankton species.

  18. High-speed ping-pong tables. Does the 'World Solar Challenge' feature the cars of the future? Rather not.; Rasende Tischtennisplatten. Fahren bei der ''World Solar Challenge'' die Autos der Zukunft? Eher nicht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siemer, Jochen

    2011-10-15

    The 11th 'World Solar Challenge' started in mid-October 2011. This a race of solar cars across Australia is the most spectacular of its kind, but it is hardly a test for solar cars of the future as the regulations for racing cars are far from those for everyday electric-powered solar vehicles. A normal-looking car like the 'Solarworld GT' developed at Bochum university therefore has no real chance of winning, however proud its designers may be.

  19. Comparative seed germination traits in alpine and subalpine grasslands: higher elevations are associated with warmer germination temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Pascual, E; Jiménez-Alfaro, B; Bueno, Á

    2017-01-01

    Seed germination traits in alpine grasslands are poorly understood, despite the sensitivity of these communities to climate change. We hypothesise that germination traits predict species occurrence along the alpine-subalpine elevation gradient. Phylogenetic comparative analyses were performed using fresh seeds of 22 species from alpine and subalpine grasslands (1600-2400 m) of the Cantabrian Mountains, Spain (43° N, 5° W). Laboratory experiments were conducted to characterise germinability, optimum germination temperature and effect of cold and warm stratification on dormancy breaking. Variability in these traits was reduced by phylogenetic principal component analysis (phyl.PCA). Phylogenetic generalised least squares regression (PGLS) was used to fit a model in which species average elevation was predicted from their position on the PCA axes. Most subalpine species germinated in snow-like conditions, whereas most alpine species needed accumulation of warm temperatures. Phylogenetic signal was low. PCA1 ordered species according to overall germinability, whilst PCA2 ordered them according to preference for warm or cold germination. PCA2 significantly predicted species occurrence in the alpine-subalpine gradient, as higher elevation species tended to have warmer germination preferences. Our results show that germination traits in high-mountain grasslands are closely linked to the alpine-subalpine gradient. Alpine species, especially those from stripped and wind-edge communities, prefer warmer germination niches, suggesting that summer emergence prevents frost damage during seedling establishment. In contrast, alpine snowfield and subalpine grassland plants have cold germination niches, indicating that winter emergence may occur under snow to avoid drought stress. © 2016 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  20. Subtropical Low Cloud Response to a Warmer Climate in an Superparameterized Climate Model: Part I. Regime Sorting and Physical Mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter N Blossey

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The subtropical low cloud response to a climate with SST uniformly warmed by 2 K is analyzed in the SP- CAM superparameterized climate model, in which each grid column is replaced by a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model (CRM. Intriguingly, SP-CAM shows substantial low cloud increases over the subtropical oceans in the warmer climate. The paper aims to understand the mechanism for these increases. The subtropical low cloud increase is analyzed by sorting grid-column months of the climate model into composite cloud regimes using percentile ranges of lower tropospheric stability (LTS. LTS is observed to be well correlated to subtropical low cloud amount and boundary layer vertical structure. The low cloud increase in SP-CAM is attributed to boundary-layer destabilization due to increased clear-sky radiative cooling in the warmer climate. This drives more shallow cumulus convection and a moister boundary layer, inducing cloud increases and further increasing the radiative cooling. The boundary layer depth does not change substantially, due to compensation between increased radiative cooling (which promotes more turbulent mixing and boundary-layer deepening and slight strengthening of the boundary-layer top inversion (which inhibits turbulent entrainment and promotes a shallower boundary layer. The widespread changes in low clouds do not appear to be driven by changes in mean subsidence.
    In a companion paper we use column-mode CRM simulations based on LTS-composite profiles to further study the low cloud response mechanisms and to explore the sensitivity of low cloud response to grid resolution in SP-CAM.

  1. Elevated CO2 reduced floret death in wheat under warmer average temperatures and terminal drought.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo eDias de Oliveira

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Elevated CO2 often increases grain yield in wheat by enhancing grain number per ear, which can result from an increase in the potential number of florets or a reduction in the death of developed florets. The hypotheses that elevated CO2 reduces floret death rather than increases floret development, and that grain size in a genotype with more grains per unit area is limited by the rate of grain filling, were tested in a pair of sister lines contrasting in tillering capacity (restricted- vs free-tillering. The hypotheses were tested under elevated CO2, combined with +3 C above ambient temperature and terminal drought, using specialized field tunnel houses. Elevated CO2 increased net leaf photosynthetic rates and likely the availability of carbon assimilates, which significantly reduced the rates of floret death and increased the potential number of grains at anthesis in both sister lines by an average of 42%. The restricted-tillering line had faster grain-filling rates than the free-tillering line because the free-tillering line had more grains to fill. Furthermore, grain-filling rates were faster under elevated CO2 and +3 C above ambient. Terminal drought reduced grain yield in both lines by 19%. Elevated CO2 alone increased the potential number of grains, but a trade-off in yield components limited grain yield in the free-tillering line. This emphasizes the need for breeding cultivars with a greater potential number of florets, since this was not affected by the predicted future climate variables.

  2. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, Brage B; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø; Loe, Leif E; Coulson, Stephen J; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-01-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties. (letter)

  3. Elevated CO2 Reduced Floret Death in Wheat Under Warmer Average Temperatures and Terminal Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias de Oliveira, Eduardo; Palta, Jairo A.; Bramley, Helen; Stefanova, Katia; Siddique, Kadambot H. M.

    2015-01-01

    Elevated CO2 often increases grain yield in wheat by enhancing grain number per ear, which can result from an increase in the potential number of florets or a reduction in the death of developed florets. The hypotheses that elevated CO2 reduces floret death rather than increases floret development, and that grain size in a genotype with more grains per unit area is limited by the rate of grain filling, were tested in a pair of sister lines contrasting in tillering capacity (restricted- vs. free-tillering). The hypotheses were tested under elevated CO2, combined with +3°C above ambient temperature and terminal drought, using specialized field tunnel houses. Elevated CO2 increased net leaf photosynthetic rates and likely the availability of carbon assimilates, which significantly reduced the rates of floret death and increased the potential number of grains at anthesis in both sister lines by an average of 42%. The restricted-tillering line had faster grain-filling rates than the free-tillering line because the free-tillering line had more grains to fill. Furthermore, grain-filling rates were faster under elevated CO2 and +3°C above ambient. Terminal drought reduced grain yield in both lines by 19%. Elevated CO2 alone increased the potential number of grains, but a trade-off in yield components limited grain yield in the free-tillering line. This emphasizes the need for breeding cultivars with a greater potential number of florets, since this was not affected by the predicted future climate variables. PMID:26635837

  4. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-11-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

  5. Nuclear power at present and in the future. Sweden and the rest of the world; Kaernkraften nu och i framtiden. I Sverige och resten av vaerlden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-06-15

    The report provides by no means a complete picture of nuclear power. There are a number of issues not covered, such as environmental impacts caused by the nuclear plants used (with the exception of the greenhouse gases that highlights some of report), the link with nuclear weapons and waste disposal. The share of nuclear power in Sweden in 2010 is higher than the average for the world The global net installed power of nuclear power in early 2010 was just over 370 GW{sub e} distributed over 436 nuclear power plants. In 2007, global electricity generation from nuclear power was about 14 percent of total electricity generation, compared with 44 percent in Sweden. The average availability for nuclear power plants was about 82 percent between 2005 and 2007. During the same period the availability in Swedish plants was lose to 84 percent. The Swedish availability has fallen, in 2004 the availability was comparable to that in Finland, which amounted to just over 94 percent between 2005 and 2007. The expansion of nuclear power may be limited by technical challenges in manufacturing infrastructure and a shortage of skilled labor. There is only a few reactor suppliers in the market and the quality demand of the material is much higher than for other major projects. Whether nuclear power is competitive with alternative investments or not is uncertain. The investment costs for building new reactors is high but the operational and maintenance costs are low compared to many other types of power sources. In an Emission Trading System nuclear power competitivity with fossil options increases. Nuclear power is a power source with low greenhouse gas emissions over its life cycle. Uranium is a limited resource and like other natural resources limited to a number of countries. Most nuclear reactors are also dependent on enrichment of the natural uranium. If an open or closed nuclear fuel cycle is used is crucial for how long the uranium reserves will last and how nuclear energy can

  6. Water in the Native World: Hydrological Impacts of Future Land Use and Climate Change in the Lumbee River Watershed and Implications for Ecosystems and Indigenous Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emanuel, R. E.; Singh, N.; Painter, J.; Sikes, J. A.; Vose, J. M.; Wear, D. N.; Martin, K. L.

    2016-12-01

    In the coming decades, the southeastern US will likely experience substantial shifts in land use due to population growth, food and energy production, and other factors. In the same period, climate change is expected to alter ecohydrological processes in terrestrial landscapes while contributing to further land use change. Increasingly, these changes will challenge the ability of the region's freshwater resources to support natural ecosystems and human communities. The impacts of land use and climate change on water are of particular concern to rural indigenous communities of the southeastern US. For these communities, the cultural significance of land and water, together with historical legacies of discrimination, marginalization and other factors, combine to create unique vulnerabilities to environmental change. Assessments of land use and climate impacts on water resources of the southeastern US tend to focus on quantity and quality concerns of large cities or on waters of special economic concern (e.g. estuaries and coastal fisheries). The potential impacts of land use and climate change on American Indian communities are largely overlooked or unknown. With this in mind, we used a semi-distributed hydrological model (SWAT) to assess impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow regimes in the Lumbee (aka Lumber) River, North Carolina (USA). This coastal plain blackwater river is a significant natural and cultural resource for indigenous people of the Lumbee Tribe, and its watershed, containing extensive riparian wetlands and agriculture-dominated uplands, is home to more than 30,000 tribal citizens. We ran SWAT with statistically downscaled output from four general circulation models (GCMs) for the mid-21st century (RCP8.5 scenario), together with a mid-century land use scenario from the US Forest Service's Southern Forest Futures Project. We used these inputs to simulate daily streamflows on the Lumbee River for the 2040-2060 period with uncertainty

  7. The World of Wars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harste, Gorm

    2014-01-01

    The world of the future will not be one without wars. The many hopes we have about a future peace governed by a more or less confederal state will not make wars obsolete. Regular wars and irregular wars will continue and probably about different subjects than we are used to. The article proposes...... that the form of war will be more about temporalities, i.e. fast interchanges or, rather, more risky protracted wars of attrition and exhaustion and less about tactical well defined territories. The West can neither dominate such wars nor establish one world that is ruled or even governed. The risk is that we...

  8. Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

    OpenAIRE

    W. Liu; F. Sun; F. Sun; F. Sun; F. Sun; W. H. Lim; W. H. Lim; J. Zhang; H. Wang; H. Shiogama; Y. Zhang

    2018-01-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drou...

  9. Half of the world’s population experience robust changes in the water cycle for a 2 °C warmer world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sedláček, Jan; Knutti, Reto

    2014-01-01

    Fresh water is a critical resource on Earth, yet projections of changes in the water cycle resulting from anthropogenic warming are challenging. It is important to not only know the best estimate of change, but also how robust these projections are, where changes occur, which variables will change, and how many people are affected by it. Here we synthesize the changes in the water cycle, based on results of the latest climate model intercomparison (CMIP5). Several variables of the water cycle, such as evaporation and relative humidity, show robust changes over more than 50% of the land area already with an anthropogenic global warming of 1 °C. A warming of 2 °C shows more than half of the world’s population to be directly affected by robust local changes in the water cycle, and everybody experiences a robust change in at least one variable of the water cycle. While the physical changes are widespread, the affected people are concentrated in a few hot-spots mainly in Asia and Central Africa. The occurrence of these hot-spots is driven by population density, as well as by the early emergence of the anthropogenic signal from variability in these areas. Large uncertainties remain in projections of soil moisture and runoff changes. (paper)

  10. Future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1987-01-01

    International involvement in particle physics is what the International Committee for Future Accelerators (ICFA) is all about. At the latest Future Perspectives meeting at Brookhaven from 5-10 October (after a keynote speech by doyen Viktor Weisskopf, who regretted the emergence of 'a nationalistic trend'), ICFA reviewed progress and examined its commitments in the light of the evolving world particle physics scene. Particular aims were to review worldwide accelerator achievements and plans, to survey the work of the four panels, and to discuss ICFA's special role in future cooperation in accelerator construction and use, and in research and development work for both accelerators and for detectors

  11. Gas, a decisive pillar of the sustainable future of the world: Contribution of the gas industry to fight against climate change and for sustainable development. LPG: a beneficial solution for the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Gourrierec, Meline

    2015-01-01

    Gas has a crucial role to play in developing energy that is less carbon-intensive and more respectful of the environment. Recognised as being the cleanest fossil energy, its use in different sectors of activity leads to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, gas contributes to the development of renewable energies and becomes itself renewable through biomethane production. The development of this green gas based on a circular economy has opened up new prospects for the use of gas in all parts of the world. The 21. Conference of the Parties of the Framework Convention of the United Nations, that will be held in Paris from 30 November to 11 December 2015 (COP21) is a decisive step in the negotiation of the future international agreement on the climate that will enter in force in 2020. The target is ambitious: restricting the global warming below the critical threshold of 2 deg. C by 2100. Aware of the climate challenge and the essential role of all the economic actors, the gas industry has embarked on a series of measures contributing to keeping to this global target and facilitating sustainable development through access to energy that is less carbon-intensive and more respectful of the environment. Changing from a solid fuel to a liquid or gaseous fuel provides modern domestic energy with beneficial effects on the environment and on the quality of life. The World LPG Association has the ambition that a billion people making this transition

  12. World lines.

    OpenAIRE

    Waser Jürgen; Fuchs Raphael; Ribicic Hrvoje; Schindler Benjamin; Blöschl Günther; Gröller Eduard

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we present World Lines as a novel interactive visualization that provides complete control over multiple heterogeneous simulation runs. In many application areas decisions can only be made by exploring alternative scenarios. The goal of the suggested approach is to support users in this decision making process. In this setting the data domain is extended to a set of alternative worlds where only one outcome will actually happen. World Lines integrate simulation visualization and...

  13. Command World

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wong, Leah Y; Lange, Douglas S; Sebastyn, Jerome T; Roof, William H

    2006-01-01

    .... The Command World scenario was expressly designed as a crisis action planning exercise in order to replicate the communications, collaboration, and information requirements inherent in a military...

  14. World Energy Conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, G.; Schilling, H.D.

    1979-01-01

    After making some general remarks about goals, tasks, and works of the World Energy Conference the topics and the frame of the 11th World Energy Conference which will take place in Munich from 8th to 12th September 1980 are outlined. This conference is held under the general topic 'energy for our world' and deals with the reciprocal relation between energy supply, environment, and society. The main part of the publication presented here is the German version of the most important sections of the investigation 'World Energy-Looking Ahead to 2020' by the Conservation Commission (CC) of the World Energy Conference. Added to this is the German original brief version of a report by the Mining-Research Company (Bergbau-Forschung GmbH) to the CC which deals with the estimation of the world's coal resources and their future availability. This report was presented on the 10th World Energy Conference in Istanbul together with the corresponding reports concerning the other energy sources. Finally, an introduction to the technical programme for the 11th World Energy Conference 1980 is given. (UA) [de

  15. World wide biomass resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faaij, A.P.C.

    2012-01-01

    In a wide variety of scenarios, policy strategies, and studies that address the future world energy demand and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, biomass is considered to play a major role as renewable energy carrier. Over the past decades, the modern use of biomass has increased

  16. Engaged World-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robertson, Maria Louise Bønnelykke; Rubow, Cecilie

    2013-01-01

    Drawing on fieldwork in Kiribati and the Cook Islands, this chapter shows how atoll islands and tropical lagoons, considered highly vulnerable to present and future sea level rise, are extraordinary malleable socio-natural worlds. Revolving around sacred islands submerged by sea water, ancient fi...

  17. Rainbow trout adaptation to a warmer Patagonia and its potential to increase temperature tolerance in cultured stocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Alejandra Crichigno

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The viability of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss (Walbaum, 1792 culture is being challenged progressively by global warming. Previous trials with Australian and Japanese rainbow trout lines suggested that improvements in thermal performance may be possible. Here, we hypothesized that strain-related differences in physiological response to temperature exist between a north Patagonian hatchery stock (CENSALBA, a Neotropical one (Criadero Boca de Río, and a thermal stream (Valcheta population of wild introduced rainbow trout. This was tested by comparing, at 20 °C, the thermal preference, specific metabolic rate, thermal tolerance, growth, and condition on juveniles of the three strains, and on a Valcheta stream male x CENSALBA female F1 cross. Preferred temperature (PT and loss of equilibrium temperature (LET, a measure of thermal tolerance of Valcheta stream and F1 were significantly higher than those of CENSALBA, and the average PTs of Valcheta stream and F1 were higher than the 95% confidence interval of available reference data for rainbow trout. These results suggest that the F1, reared under standard hatchery conditions and selected by growth and thermal preference, presents higher thermal preference and higher thermal tolerance than the current CENSALBA hatchery stock. Introduction of this naturally adapted strain to hatchery stocks would likely result in the improvement of their temperature resistance to warmer waters. Current studies on adults of this F1 generation are underway.

  18. Energy for the future: the world view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meinel, M.P.; Meinel, A.B.

    1983-01-01

    The relationship between gross national product and energy use is studied for a number of countries and for the United States is particular. The relationship between income inequalities and energy use is also examined. The similarity between income inequality in an economic system and temperature differences in a thermodynamic system is noted. An economic chain analysis is used to derive income inequality distributions for a less-developed country and for a very-developed country. Finally the role of expensive but domestic-origin energy is examined. (U.K.)

  19. Nuclear energy in the world future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haefele, W.; Jaek, W.

    1983-01-01

    Starting from the actual position in the electricity market nuclear energy will grow up to the stabilizing factor in this field. The market penetration of breeding and fusion systems, therefore, will be the next important milestones of nuclear energy development. On the other hand nuclear energy as well as the electric grid itself are good examples for the reconstruction of the non-electric energy market which is dominated by resource and environmental problems. To overcome these problems the installation of a refining step for fossil energy resources and a new transport system besides the electric grid are the next steps toward a crisis-proof energy supply system. (orig.) [de

  20. Germline Manipulation and Our Future Worlds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, John

    2015-01-01

    Two genetic technologies capable of making heritable changes to the human genome have revived interest in, and in some quarters a very familiar panic concerning, so-called germline interventions. These technologies are: most recently the use of CRISPR/Cas9 to edit genes in non-viable IVF zygotes and Mitochondrial Replacement Therapy (MRT) the use of which was approved in principle in a landmark vote earlier this year by the United Kingdom Parliament. The possibility of using either of these techniques in humans has encountered the most violent hostility and suspicion. However it is important to be aware that much of this hostility dates back to the fears associated with In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) and other reproductive technologies and by cloning; fears which were baseless at the time concerning both IVF and cloning the use of both of which have proved to be highly beneficial to humanity and which have been effectively regulated and controlled. This paper argues that CRISPR should by pursued through researh until it is safe enough for use in humans but there is no reason to suppose at this stage that such use will be unsafe or unethical (Collins 2015).

  1. World lays groundwork for future linear collider

    CERN Multimedia

    Feder, Toni

    2010-01-01

    "New physics from the Large Hadron Collider can best be explored with a large lepton collider; realizing one will require mobilizing accelerator and particle physicists, funding agencies, and politicians" (3 pages)

  2. Future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Croce, A.

    1991-01-01

    According to George Woodwell, founder of the Woods Hole Research Center, due the combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation and accelerated respiration, the net annual increase of carbon, in the form of carbon dioxide, to the 750 billion tonnes already present in the earth's atmosphere, is in the order of 3 to 5 billion tonnes. Around the world, scientists, investigating the probable effects of this increase on the earth's future climate, are now formulating coupled air and ocean current models which take account of water temperature and salinity dependent carbon dioxide exchange mechanisms acting between the atmosphere and deep layers of ocean waters

  3. World Wind

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — World Wind allows any user to zoom from satellite altitude into any place on Earth, leveraging high resolution LandSat imagery and SRTM elevation data to experience...

  4. World science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    The aim of the Third World Network of Scientific Organizations (TWNSO), established last year with its headquarters in Trieste, Italy, is to promote the role of science and technology in developing countries. TWNSO, under the presidency of Abdus Salam, is an offshoot of the Third World Academy of Sciences, which has pushed the cause of international scientific collaboration since its establishment in 1983. (orig./HSI).

  5. Carbon assimilation and transfer through kelp forests in the NE Atlantic is diminished under a warmer ocean climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pessarrodona, Albert; Moore, Pippa J; Sayer, Martin D J; Smale, Dan A

    2018-06-03

    Global climate change is affecting carbon cycling by driving changes in primary productivity and rates of carbon fixation, release and storage within Earth's vegetated systems. There is, however, limited understanding of how carbon flow between donor and recipient habitats will respond to climatic changes. Macroalgal-dominated habitats, such as kelp forests, are gaining recognition as important carbon donors within coastal carbon cycles, yet rates of carbon assimilation and transfer through these habitats are poorly resolved. Here, we investigated the likely impacts of ocean warming on coastal carbon cycling by quantifying rates of carbon assimilation and transfer in Laminaria hyperborea kelp forests-one of the most extensive coastal vegetated habitat types in the NE Atlantic-along a latitudinal temperature gradient. Kelp forests within warm climatic regimes assimilated, on average, more than three times less carbon and donated less than half the amount of particulate carbon compared to those from cold regimes. These patterns were not related to variability in other environmental parameters. Across their wider geographical distribution, plants exhibited reduced sizes toward their warm-water equatorward range edge, further suggesting that carbon flow is reduced under warmer climates. Overall, we estimated that Laminaria hyperborea forests stored ~11.49 Tg C in living biomass and released particulate carbon at a rate of ~5.71 Tg C year -1 . This estimated flow of carbon was markedly higher than reported values for most other marine and terrestrial vegetated habitat types in Europe. Together, our observations suggest that continued warming will diminish the amount of carbon that is assimilated and transported through temperate kelp forests in NE Atlantic, with potential consequences for the coastal carbon cycle. Our findings underline the need to consider climate-driven changes in the capacity of ecosystems to fix and donate carbon when assessing the impacts of

  6. Counseling For Future Shock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Lewis B.

    1974-01-01

    In this article the author looks at some of the searing prophecies made by Alvin Toffler in his book Future Shock and relates them to the world of the professional counselor and the clientele the counselor attempts to serve. (Author)

  7. World nuclear energy paths

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Connolly, T.J.; Hansen, U.; Jaek, W.; Beckurts, K.H.

    1979-01-01

    In examing the world nuclear energy paths, the following assumptions were adopted: the world economy will grow somewhat more slowly than in the past, leading to reductions in electricity demand growth rates; national and international political impediments to the deployment of nuclear power will gradually disappear over the next few years; further development of nuclear power will proceed steadily, without serious interruption but with realistic lead times for the introduction of advanced technologies. Given these assumptions, this paper attempts a study of possible world nuclear energy developments, disaggregated on a regional and national basis. The scenario technique was used and a few alternative fuel-cycle scenarios were developed. Each is an internally consistent model of technically and economically feasible paths to the further development of nuclear power in an aggregate of individual countries and regions of the world. The main purpose of this modeling exercise was to gain some insight into the probable international locations of reactors and other nuclear facilities, the future requirements for uranium and for fuel-cycle services, and the problems of spent-fuel storage and waste management. The study also presents an assessment of the role that nuclear power might actually play in meeting future world energy demand

  8. World armament

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stolle, H.

    1977-01-01

    Summary of consequences on: Armament expenditure of the world, arms trade, arms race and nuclear weapon arsenals, nuclear weapon proliferation, nuclear safety controls, nuclear carrier systems, international nuclear trade, nuclear weapon accidents, chemical wars, war law, ecological wars, armament limitations. (HP) [de

  9. Spinning worlds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schwarz, H.

    2017-01-01

    The thesis "Spinning Worlds" is about the characterisation of two types of gas-giant exoplanets: Hot Jupiters, with orbital periods of fewer than five days, and young, wide-orbit gas giants, with orbital periods as long as thousands of years. The thesis is based on near-infrared observations of 1

  10. A hypothesis and a case-study projection of an influence of MJO modulation on boreal-summer tropical cyclogenesis in a warmer climate with a global non-hydrostatic model: a transition toward the central Pacific?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KAZUYOSHI eOOUCHI

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The eastward shift of the enhanced activity of tropical cyclone to the central Pacific is a robust projection result for a future warmer climate, and is shared by most of the state-of-the-art climate models. The shift has been argued to originate from the underlying El-Ñino like sea-surface temperature (SST forcing. This study explores the possibility that the change of the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO can be an additional, if not alternative, contributor to the shift, using the dataset of Yamada et al. (2010 from a global non-hydrostatic 14-km grid mesh time-slice experiment for a boreal-summer case. Within the case-study framework, we develop the hypothesis that an eastward shift of the high-activity area of the MJO, as manifested itself as the significant intra-seasonal modulation of the enhanced precipitation, is associated with the increased tropical cyclogenesis potential over the North central Pacific by regulating cyclonic relative vorticity and vertical shear. In contrast, the North Indian Ocean and maritime continent undergo relatively diminished genesis potential. An implication is that uncertainty in the future tropical cyclogenesis in some part of the Pacific and other ocean basins could be reduced if projection of the MJO and its connection with the underlying SST environment can be better understood and constrained by the improvement of climate models.

  11. 36 CFR 73.7 - World Heritage nomination process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... inscribed as a World Heritage Site. (j) Who is notified when a U.S. property has been nominated to the World... INTERIOR WORLD HERITAGE CONVENTION § 73.7 World Heritage nomination process. (a) What is the U.S. World... Future U.S. World Heritage nominations) and requests that public and private sources recommend properties...

  12. World trends from 2017

    OpenAIRE

    Janković Slobodan

    2016-01-01

    Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing...

  13. Uranium - the world picture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silver, J.M.; Wright, W.J.

    1976-01-01

    The world resources of uranium and the future demand for uranium are discussed. The amount of uranium available depends on the price which users are prepared to pay for its recovery. As the price is increased, there is an incentive to recover uranium from lower grade or more difficult deposits. In view of this, attention is drawn to the development of the uranium industry in Australias

  14. (Some) Computer Futures: Mainframes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Earl C.

    Possible futures for the world of mainframe computers can be forecast through studies identifying forces of change and their impact on current trends. Some new prospects for the future have been generated by advances in information technology; for example, recent United States successes in applied artificial intelligence (AI) have created new…

  15. World-wide environmental problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wohlers, H.C.

    1975-01-01

    Man and the physical and natural resources necessary to support him in a civilized society are on a collision course. It is simple to say that man cannot continue to grow in number at an ever-increasing rate without a destructive effect upon the environment. Positive scientific proof for this impending calamity is not now available, yet many indications--sometimes physical and sometimes natural--point toward major world-wide environmental troubles in the near future. A number of environmental problems are described, particularly as they relate to the total world system. A computer model simulating future world-wide environmental trends from 1900 to 2100 A.D. is evaluated and suggested as a major tool for data-gathering purposes to determine the extent of world-wide environmental problems. It is suggested that scientists take an active role in the study of the environment, particularly in relation to man's future on earth

  16. Quantum Worlds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey A. Barrett

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1808-1711.2016v20n1p45 Because of the conceptual difficulties it faces, quantum mechanics provides a salient example of how alternative metaphysical commitments may clarify our understanding of a physical theory and the explanations it provides. Here we will consider how postulating alternative quantum worlds in the context of Hugh Everett III’s pure wave mechanics may serve to explain determinate measurement records and the standard quantum statistics. We will focus on the properties of such worlds, then briefly consider other metaphysical options available for interpreting pure wave mechanics. These reflections will serve to illustrate both the nature and the limits of naturalized metaphysics.

  17. Third World

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K, Peng K

    1980-12-01

    The disparity between the consumption patterns of industrialized and Third World countries reflects an increase in the numbers of people living in poverty who have yet to achieve basic needs. Third World planning, encouraged by transnational companies, too often model their development goals on importing artificial life styles. This exploits poor nations by creating unrealistic demands as well as by creating a market for products that are unacceptable elsewhere. The health and environmental effects of these practices prompted the formation of consumers' association of Penang (CAP), which is trying to make people aware of the need to give basic needs the highest priority. The CAP handles complaints, tests products, and studies the socio-economic-environmental implications of development as well as conducting a far-ranging educational program. Its procedures can be adapted by any country to examine consumer awareness and to press for social reform. (DCK)

  18. Orographic cirrus in a future climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Joos

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available A cloud resolving model (CRM is used to investigate the formation of orographic cirrus clouds in the current and future climate. The formation of cirrus clouds depends on a variety of dynamical and thermodynamical processes, which act on different scales. First, the capability of the CRM in realistically simulating orographic cirrus clouds has been tested by comparing the simulated results to aircraft measurements of an orographic cirrus cloud. The influence of a warmer climate on the microphysical and optical properties of cirrus clouds has been investigated by initializing the CRM with vertical profiles of horizontal wind, potential temperature and equivalent potential temperature, respectively. The vertical profiles are extracted from IPCC A1B simulations for the current climate and for the period 2090–2099 for two regions representative for North and South America. The influence of additional moisture in a future climate on the propagation of gravity waves and the formation of orographic cirrus could be estimated. In a future climate, the increase in moisture dampens the vertical propagation of gravity waves and the occurring vertical velocities in the moist simulations. Together with higher temperatures fewer ice crystals nucleate homogeneously. Assuming that the relative humidity does not change in a warmer climate the specific humidity in the model is increased. This increase in specific humidity in a warmer climate results in a higher ice water content. The net effect of a reduced ice crystal number concentration and a higher ice water content is an increased optical depth. However, in some moist simulations dynamical changes contribute to changes in the ice water content, ice crystal number concentration and optical depth. For the corresponding dry simulations dynamical changes are more pronounced leading to a decreased optical depth in a future climate in some cases.

  19. When Virtual Worlds Expand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bainbridge, William Sims

    The future of a virtual world depends on whether it can grow in subjective size, cultural content, and numbers of human participants. In one form of growth, exemplified by Second Life, the scope of a world increases gradually as new sponsors pay for new territory and inhabitants create content. A very different form of growth is sudden expansion, as when World of Warcraft (WoW) added entire new continents in its Burning Crusade and Lich King expansions (Lummis and Kern 2006, 2008; Corneliussen and Rettberg 2008; Sims et al. 2008). Well-established gamelike worlds have often undergone many expansions. Both the pioneer science fiction game Anarchy Online, which was launched in 2001, and Star Wars Galaxies dating from 2003, have had three, and EVE Online also from 2003 has had nine, although smaller ones. This chapter reports research on WoW's 2008 Lich King expansion, using both quantitative and qualitative methods, in order to develop theoretical ideas of the implications of expansion for virtual worlds.

  20. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Zhao

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs. Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases – cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of −3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071–2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  1. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

    2017-07-01

    Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  2. Potential benefits of early vigor and changes in phenology in wheat to adapt to warmer and drier climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Asseng, S.

    2010-01-01

    Developing crop cultivars with novel traits could help agriculture adapt to climate change. As introducing new traits into crops is expensive and time consuming, it is helpful to develop methods which can test whether a potential new plant trait increases or maintains production in future climates.

  3. Recreating the World(s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giseli do Prado Siqueira

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Created in 2007 , the project extension Itinerant Workshops : recreating the world ( s of the Catholic University of Minas Gerais , Campus Poços de Caldas is an inseparable experience in research of teaching and extension. With this title " recreating worlds " seek to express the experience that has been possible for us to live over the years of execution of this project . Our experience is theoretically referenced by understanding that German thinkers Meister Eckhart (1260-1327 and Martin Heidegger (1889-1976 shows us about what is the man in they on existence. Such an understanding is expressed in the phenomenon of serenity ( Gelassenheit , let it be understood as simply what we are . Our research on this phenomenon Gelassenheit (Serenity , guide the relationships we establish with the external community , where we understand that the existence of man in his essential condition , is a shared existence. The other is imposed on us and we never fail to be sympathetic to their fears and anxieties , because these same fears and anxieties are also ours possibilities . This relationship of consideration makes us all ( teachers , students , community solidarity in our existential angst before the unexpected, the unknown . It is when we can see ourselves through another , in what we truly are and can be.

  4. World trends from 2017

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janković Slobodan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing Anglo-American approach in prognosis, he starts with analysis of the world order changes, of EU trends, Middle, Far East and some trends regarding Africa. Author presents macro trends in North - West Pacific, in Israel-Palestine, in Syria, Iraq, in Europe.

  5. World energy outlook 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-11-07

    The World Energy Outlook 2006 sets out the IEA's latest projections of world energy supply and demand to 2030 for oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear and electricity, plus projections on energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions. The publication is in three parts. Part A: The reference scenario has chapters entitled: Key assumptions; Global Energy Trends; Oil market outlook; Gas market outlook; Coal market outlook; and Power sector outlook. Part B: The alternative policy scenario contains chapters on: Mapping a new energy future; Assessing the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies; Deepening the analysis results by sector; and Getting to and going beyond the alternative policy scenario. Part C: Focus on key topics contains: The impact of higher energy prices; Current trends in oil and gas investment; Prospects for nuclear power; The outlook for biofuels; Energy for coking in developing countries; and Focus on Brazil. 224 figs., 84 tabs., 5 annexes.

  6. World energy insight

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-09-15

    The 21st World Energy Congress offers a unique opportunity for all stake-holders of the energy sector to meet and exchange visions, strategies and practices, during four days of very intensive and interesting sessions, round-tables and exhibitions. More than 3,000 energy leaders gather from around the world from both developed and developing countries, from all types of energy, from public and private companies and government organisations, in order to think together about how to bring about a sustainable and acceptable energy future. The truth is that nobody has the choice any longer. All energy leaders have to take decisions every day, and they need to have a clear analysis of what is at stake, what the risks are, and what the solutions can be.

  7. The world energy status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meritet, S.

    2010-01-01

    As energy consumption increased by a factor 20 during the 20. century, energy has not only an economic, but also a political role, and its management involves diplomatic, social, and now environmental issues. The author discusses the primary role still hold by fossil energies (coal, gas and oil) in the world energy consumption, comments the energy reserve assessments, outlines the financial needs for a renewable energy development, and questions the future evolution of reserves and consumption, as well as the consequences of climate change or the uncertainty about economic growth. The world energy assessment shows important differences between inhabitants: a US citizen consumes more than eight times more than a Chinese one. The shares of the different energy sources are also different from one country to another. In order to decrease the demand in energy, energy efficiency must be improved and user behaviour must evolve

  8. World energy outlook 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-11-07

    The World Energy Outlook 2006 sets out the IEA's latest projections of world energy supply and demand to 2030 for oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear and electricity, plus projections on energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions. The publication is in three parts. Part A: The reference scenario has chapters entitled: Key assumptions; Global Energy Trends; Oil market outlook; Gas market outlook; Coal market outlook; and Power sector outlook. Part B: The alternative policy scenario contains chapters on: Mapping a new energy future; Assessing the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies; Deepening the analysis results by sector; and Getting to and going beyond the alternative policy scenario. Part C: Focus on key topics contains: The impact of higher energy prices; Current trends in oil and gas investment; Prospects for nuclear power; The outlook for biofuels; Energy for coking in developing countries; and Focus on Brazil. 224 figs., 84 tabs., 5 annexes.

  9. World helicopter market study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleary, B.; Pearson, R. W.; Greenwood, S. W.; Kaplan, L.

    1978-01-01

    The extent of the threat to the US helicopter industry posed by a determined effort by foreign manufacturers, European companies in particular, to supply their own domestic markets and also to penetrate export markets, including the USA is assessed. Available data on US and world markets for civil and military uses are collated and presented in both graphic and tabular form showing the past history of production and markets and, where forecasts are available, anticipated future trends. The data are discussed on an item-by-item basis and inferences are drawn in as much depth as appears justified.

  10. Future of color

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladson, Jack A.; Turner, Laraine B.; Green-Armytage, Paul; Hunt, Robert W. G.

    2002-06-01

    We live in a world in which styles and technologies are nearly the same from place to place, but change daily. This changing global culture is unprecedented, and reinforced by emerging new technologies that affect us all. The Future of Color, examines new technologies, how they will affect the selection and promulgation of color in the near future, and their impact upon us. We examine this topic from many perspectives - technological, business and commercial. Most importantly, as we understand how our world is emerging, we can position ourselves strategically for tomorrow.

  11. Warmer winters modulate life history and energy storage but do not affect sensitivity to a widespread pesticide in an aquatic insect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arambourou, Hélène; Stoks, Robby

    2015-10-01

    Despite the increased attention for the effects of pesticides under global warming no studies tested how winter warming affects subsequent sensitivity to pesticides. Winter warming is expected to cause delayed negative effects when it increases metabolic rates and thereby depletes energy reserves. Using a common-garden experiment, we investigated the combined effect of a 4 °C increase in winter temperature and subsequent exposure to chlorpyrifos in the aquatic larvae of replicated low- and high-latitude European populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. The warmer winter (8 °C) resulted in a higher winter survival and higher growth rates compared to the cold winter (4 °C) commonly experienced by European high-latitude populations. Low-latitude populations were better at coping with the warmer winter, indicating thermal adaptation to the local winter temperatures. Subsequent chlorpyrifos exposure at 20 °C induced strong negative effects on survival, growth rate, lipid content and acetylcholinesterase activity while phenoloxidase activity increased. These pesticide effects were not affected by winter warming. Our results suggest that for species where winter warming has positive effects on life history, no delayed effects on the sensitivity to subsequent pesticide exposure should be expected. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Mixed precipitation occurrences over southern Québec, Canada, under warmer climate conditions using a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Dominic; Thériault, Julie M.; Laprise, René

    2018-05-01

    Winter weather events with temperatures near 0°C are often associated with freezing rain. They can have major impacts on the society by causing power outages and disruptions to the transportation networks. Despite the catastrophic consequences of freezing rain, very few studies have investigated how their occurrences could evolve under climate change. This study aims to investigate the change of freezing rain and ice pellets over southern Québec using regional climate modeling at high resolution. The fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model with climate scenario RCP 8.5 at 0.11° grid mesh was used. The precipitation types such as freezing rain, ice pellets or their combination are diagnosed using five methods (Cantin and Bachand, Bourgouin, Ramer, Czys and, Baldwin). The occurrences of the diagnosed precipitation types for the recent past (1980-2009) are found to be comparable to observations. The projections for the future scenario (2070-2099) suggested a general decrease in the occurrences of mixed precipitation over southern Québec from October to April. This is mainly due to a decrease in long-duration events (≥6 h ). Overall, this study contributes to better understand how the distribution of freezing rain and ice pellets might change in the future using high-resolution regional climate model.

  13. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  14. Virtual Worlds for Virtual Organizing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoten, Diana; Lutters, Wayne

    The members and resources of a virtual organization are dispersed across time and space, yet they function as a coherent entity through the use of technologies, networks, and alliances. As virtual organizations proliferate and become increasingly important in society, many may exploit the technical architecture s of virtual worlds, which are the confluence of computer-mediated communication, telepresence, and virtual reality originally created for gaming. A brief socio-technical history describes their early origins and the waves of progress followed by stasis that brought us to the current period of renewed enthusiasm. Examination of contemporary examples demonstrates how three genres of virtual worlds have enabled new arenas for virtual organizing: developer-defined closed worlds, user-modifiable quasi-open worlds, and user-generated open worlds. Among expected future trends are an increase in collaboration born virtually rather than imported from existing organizations, a tension between high-fidelity recreations of the physical world and hyper-stylized imaginations of fantasy worlds, and the growth of specialized worlds optimized for particular sectors, companies, or cultures.

  15. World LNG outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maisonnier, G.

    1999-01-01

    CEDIGAZ proposes this new survey about LNG in view of the main changes which have occurred on this market during the past few years. Several projects under construction or planned three years ago are now commissioned (Qatargas) or on the verge of starting to export this year (Trinidad LNG, RasGas, Nigeria LNG) or next years (Oman LNG). The Asian crisis, which had major impacts on both short-term demand in Asia and LNG prices, has brought about new uncertainties to the long-term prospects. At the same time, it now seems more and more certain that firstly India and then China will import LNG in the next decade. It remains to be seen at what level and when this will occur. LNG growth in Europe has now become a reality, and new potential markets, for example in South America (Brazil), are also being considered as real opportunities in the near future. Considering these 'new' trends, an updated study about LNG appeared necessary. This survey 'World LNG Outlook - 99 Edition' is organised as the previous one: a historical record since 1964 (Chapter 1) followed by a description of the infrastructures existing in 1998 (Chapter 2). The analysis continues with world trade prospects by the year 2010 (Chapters 3 to 5). Chapter 6 describes the future LNG chain and the last Chapter (7) focuses on economic matters (LNG price trends, cost reductions). The study 'World LNG Outlook - 99 Edition' offers hence a comprehensive panorama of this sector from a short and long-term point of view. (author)

  16. International conference, future of coal in the economy of the world and Poland; Miedzynarodowa konferencja. Przyszlosc wegla w gospodarce swiata i Polski Miedzynarodowa konferencja. Przyszlosc wegla w gospodarce swiata i Polski

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    The conference was held in three sessions entitled: coal as an important element of sustained development of the world energy development; problems of hard and brown coal mining development; and hard and brown coal reserves, their utilization and environmental protection. A total of seventeen papers were presented and are contained in the proceedings. Each has been abstracted separately for the Coal Abstracts database.

  17. Digital imaging - future visions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanford, L.

    1993-01-01

    The reality of a filmless future in medicine is closer in the UK than in the US. The initiative with digital data processing, however, is not. Despite the glowing promises in the literature of such visionware', there is as yet no filmless system anywhere in the World. This article examines research in this field. (Author)

  18. Women and Peace [And] Vienna Conference: Women and Disarmament [And] Women, Power and Alternative Futures, Part I: Women and World Order [And] Women, Power and Alternative Futures, Part II: Women and Power. The Whole Earth Papers. Vol. 1, No. 6-8, Spring, 1978.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Josephine; Mische, Patricia

    Four papers explore the role of women in promoting a peaceful world order. The volume is intended to increase understanding of the linkages between local and global issues, and to examine them as interrelated issues in an interdependent world. The first paper, "Women and Peace," is a historical analysis of the role of individual women, feminists,…

  19. Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehner, F.; Coats, S.; Stocker, T. F.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Sanderson, B. M.; Raible, C.; Smerdon, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    The large socioeconomic costs of droughts make them a crucial target for impact assessments of climate change scenarios. Using multiple drought metrics and a set of simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) targeting 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial global mean temperatures, we investigate changes in aridity and the risk of consecutive drought years. The latter metric is motivated by recent droughts in California and the US Southwest in general, where consecutive years of moderate precipitation deficit can quickly lead to significant drought and elevated pressure on water resources. If warming is limited to 2°C, these simulations suggest little change in drought risk for the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains compared to present day, an interesting result that arises from a delicate balance between increases in evaporative demand and precipitation in CESM in that region. In the Mediterranean, central Europe, and a number of other regions across the globe, however, drought risk increases significantly for both 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets, and the additional 0.5°C of the 2°C climate leads to significantly higher drought risk. Our study suggests that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, as aspired to by the Paris Climate Agreement, may have benefits for future drought risk but that such benefits may be regional and in some cases highly uncertain. We will therefore also discuss the robustness of results across different drought metrics as well as the model uncertainties associated with drought projections for low warming targets.

  20. World energy projections to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Criqui, P.; Kouvaritakis, N.

    2000-01-01

    This paper provides a description of the international energy projections elaborated with the POLES energy model for the purpose of analysing, in other papers of this issue, the impacts of technological change at world level and to 2030. Section 2 describes the key exogenous hypotheses on population and economic growth used for this projection, as well as the main resulting changes for the world energy system and in terms of CO 2 emissions. In Section 3 the dynamics of the energy systems are further analysed for four main world regions, while Section 4 is dedicated to the identification of the key uncertainties and of their possible impacts on future energy development. Finally, the last section presents the key messages of this outlook, which shows a rapidly growing world economy and energy consumption with increasing oil and gas prices, although this last feature remains subject to uncertainties on resource endowment estimates. (orig.)

  1. Energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Treat, J.E.

    1990-01-01

    This book provides fifteen of the futures industry's leading authorities with broader background in both theory and practice of energy futures trading in this updated text. The authors review the history of the futures market and the fundamentals of trading, hedging, and technical analysis; then they update you with the newest trends in energy futures trading - natural gas futures, options, regulations, and new information services. The appendices outline examples of possible contracts and their construction

  2. Guidelines on suicide prevention measures for South Korea and Japan based on recent suicide trends: the need to utilize this approach to devise future suicide prevention measures for the rest of asia and the rest of the world

    OpenAIRE

    INOUE K.; CHAIZHUNUSOVA N.; HOSHI M.; NOSO Y.; TAKEICHI N.; OSPANOVA N.; MOLDAGALIEV T.; SARSEMBINA ZH.; KALIEVA A.; JAMEDINOVA U.; CHEGEDEKOVA SH.; SHARAPIYEVA A.; BITEBAYEVA D.; RAKHYPBEKOV T.K.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Devising and implementing effective suicide prevention measures is an urgent matter for countries around the world. South Korea and Japan have some of the world’s highest suicide rates, so the current study examined more effective suicide prevention measures for those countries with a focus on recent suicide rates by age group. Materials and Methods: This study examined the suicide rate for each sex by age group in South Korea and Japan in 2009 and 2012, and this study then calc...

  3. World Energy Outlook 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-11-10

    What will the credit crunch and economic recession mean for energy markets? Will investment cutbacks lead us towards a supply crunch a few years down the line? How could the transition to a clean global energy system be financed? These are just three of the questions that World Energy Outlook 2009 addresses. Incorporating recent developments in energy and environmental policy, this year's Outlook draws on the latest data reflecting the impact of the global financial and economic crisis and takes into account ongoing gyrations in energy prices. The resulting analysis presents a full update of energy projections through to 2030, fuel by fuel, and with more country-level detail than ever before. WEO-2009 puts the spotlight on three special topics: (1) Financing energy investment under a post-2012 climate framework: What policy action is needed to increase deployment of new energy technologies? Where are the most cost-effective opportunities for carbon mitigation? This ground-breaking analysis, which zooms in on the crucial period through to 2020, provides a robust quantitative basis for United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations in the lead-up to the crucial climate meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009. (2) Prospects for global natural gas markets: How hard will the credit crisis and economic recession hit gas demand and investment in gas supply? How will geology and geopolitics affect future gas supplies? Through field-by-field analysis of production trends of the world's key gas fields and a bottom-up analysis of upstream costs and investment, WEO-2009 takes a hard look at future global gas supply. (3) Energy trends in Southeast Asia: In recognition of the growing influence Southeast Asia is having on global energy markets, WEO-2009 includes an in-depth analysis of this fast-growing region. The annual WEO report -- the flagship publication of the IEA -- is widely recognised as the most authoritative source of global energy

  4. Futuring for Future Ready Librarians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa, Miguel A.

    2018-01-01

    Futurists and foresight professionals offer several guiding principles for thinking about the future. These principles can help people to think about the future and become more powerful players in shaping the preferred futures they want for themselves and their communities. The principles also fit in well as strategies to support the Future Ready…

  5. The Academic Life: Small Worlds, Different Worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locke, William

    2010-01-01

    "The Academic Life: Small Worlds, Different Worlds" represented an impressive investigation of the largest and most complex national academic community in the world, which seriously attempted a detailed representation of the variations in its form. Its ethnographic orientation to understanding the internal academic life through exploratory…

  6. The global non-proliferation and disarmament regime. Challenges and prospects for the future. Interview with Mr. Ambassador Jayantha Dhanapala, President of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, November 26, 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hautecouverture, Benjamin

    2009-01-01

    President of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs since November 2007, Mr. Jayantha Dhanapala has had a long career as a Sri Lankan diplomat and leader in the field of international security. Among his numerous appointments, Mr. Dhanapala headed the Geneva-based UNIDIR. He chaired the widely acclaimed 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference. He was Under-Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs in the United Nations from 1998 to 2003. In this interview, Mr. Dhanapala gives us his thoughts about the nuclear non-proliferation regime, a few months before the 8. NPT Review Conference. (author)

  7. The Africana world

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    It is 127 years since the Scramble for Africa divided up the continent, imposing borders that have led to conflict rather than peace and stability. It is 100 years since the African National Congress (ANC) was founded as the first African liberation movement with pan-African roots. It is nearly 50...... engagements with Africa's rich cultural heritage, its lingering contemporary challenges, its multifaceted systems of knowledge and its future in the exciting context of the twenty-first century. Africana World: From Fragmentation to Unity and Renaissance is put together in order to help develop the study...... and knowledge of African liberation across the continent and the diaspora. This first volume launches a new book series, following the Scramble for Africa conferences held every May to commemorate the founding of the OAU, which will be published annually to support the scholarly study of African unity...

  8. Many worlds in one

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garriga, Jaume; Vilenkin, Alexander

    2001-01-01

    A generic prediction of inflation is that the thermalized region we inhabit is spatially infinite. Thus, it contains an infinite number of regions of the same size as our observable universe, which we shall denote as O regions. We argue that the number of possible histories which may take place inside of an O region, from the time of recombination up to the present time, is finite. Hence, there are an infinite number of O regions with identical histories up to the present, but which need not be identical in the future. Moreover, all histories which are not forbidden by conservation laws will occur in a finite fraction of all O regions. The ensemble of O regions is reminiscent of the ensemble of universes in the many-world picture of quantum mechanics. An important difference, however, is that other O regions are unquestionably real

  9. World energy outlook 2014

    CERN Document Server

    International Energy Agency. Paris

    2014-01-01

    The global energy landscape is evolving at a rapid pace, reshaping long-held expectations for our energy future. The 2014 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) will incorporate all the latest data and developments to produce a comprehensive and authoritative analysis of medium- and longer-term energy trends. It will complement a full set of energy projections – which extend from today through, for the first time, the year 2040 – with strategic insights into their meaning for energy security, the economy and the environment. Oil, natural gas, coal, renewables and energy efficiency will be covered, along with updates on trends in energy-related CO2 emissions, fossil-fuel and renewable energy subsidies, and universal access to modern energy services.

  10. World Bioenergy 2012. Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-11-01

    The conference of 2012 had contributions on the following themes: A: World Pellets 2012, B: Market outlook, C: Energy systems, D: Transportation, E: World biorefinery 2012, F: Sustainable bioenergy day. 52 contributions in A - D. A: World Pellets 2012 is an integrated part of World Bioenergy 2012. A three day 'conference in the conference' covering all aspects of pellets: raw material potentials, innovative pellets production systems, torrefaction, new combustion technologies, trade and market development, health and safety aspects, etc. B) Market outlook: Policy and targets for renewable energy to find an alternative to fossil energy are being put in place, increasing the demand for sustainable modern bioenergy. Global trade and improved logistics open up to the markets. To facilitate international trade in bioenergy commodities, new trading places and indexes are needed, as well as generally accepted standards. Supply and demand must meet to guarantee stable prices. In this session you learn all about current market development, including drivers like incentives and policies. C) Energy Systems: Modern bioenergy is a young industry. Therefore, technical development is rapid, with many new innovations. This session focuses on technical development in the whole bioenergy chain, from harvesting of forest residues to combustion technologies and co-firing. Optimal use of biomass through district heating or cooling - small scale and large scale - and CHP technology for electricity production. D) Transportation: Sustainable transports are one of the key challenges of tomorrow. Can we transport biomass as well as other products sustainably and at what costs? Which are the future fuels for transports and when will biofuels be viewed as profitable? Biofuels for transport are under rapid development with new methods, producers and feedstock entering the markets. The future biofuels will be produced in biorefineries, to increase profitability and optimize feed

  11. Future accelerators (?)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Womersley

    2003-08-21

    I describe the future accelerator facilities that are currently foreseen for electroweak scale physics, neutrino physics, and nuclear structure. I will explore the physics justification for these machines, and suggest how the case for future accelerators can be made.

  12. WORLD HEALTH DAY THEMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S C Saxena

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available 1970 - Early Detection of Cancer Saves Life. 1971- A Full Life Despite Diabetes. 1972 - Your Heart is Your Health. 1973 - Health Begins at Home. 1974- Better Food for a Healthier World. 1975 - Small Pox - Point of no Return. 1976 - Foresight Prevents Blindness. 1977 - Immunise and Protect Your Child. 1978 - Down With High Blood Pressure. 1979     - A Health Child-A Sure Future. 1980     - Smoking or Health - The Choice is Yours. 1981     - Health for all for by the Year 2000. 1982     - Add Years to Life. 1983     - Health for all by 2000 - The Count Down has Begun 1984     - Children’s Health: Tomorrows Wealth. 1985     - Health Youth : Our best Resource. 1986     - Health Living - Everyone a Winner. 1987     - Immunisation - A Chance for Every Child. 1988     - Health For All - All for Health. 1989-Let’s Talk Health. 1990    - Our Planet - Ourhealth; Think Globally, Act Locally. 1991    - Should Disaster Strike - Be Prepared. 1992    - Health Beat - The Rhythm of Life. 1993    - Handle Life with Care - Prevent Violence and Negligence. 1994    - Our Health for a Healthy Life. 1995    - Target - 2000 - A World Without Polio. 1996    - Healthy Cities for Better Life. 1997    - Emerging Infectious Diseases. 1998    - Safe Motherhood. 1999 - Active Ageing Makes the Difference. 2000 - Be a Life Saver, Be a Blood Doner; Blood Saves Life. 2001- Stop Exclusion, Dare to Care. 2002 - Move for Health. - Shape the Future of Life, Healthy Environments for Children

  13. World Energy Outlook 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-11-09

    The world appears to be emerging from the worst economic crisis in decades. Many countries have made pledges under the Copenhagen Accord to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Commitments have also been made by the G-20 and APEC to phase out inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies. Are we, at last, on the path to a secure, reliable and environmentally sustainable energy system? Updated projections of energy demand, production, trade and investment, fuel by fuel and region by region to 2035 are provided in the 2010 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO). It includes, for the first time, a new scenario that anticipates future actions by governments to meet the commitments they have made to tackle climate change and growing energy insecurity. WEO-2010 shows: what more must be done and spent to achieve the goal of the Copenhagen Accord to limit the global temperature increase to 2 deg. C and how these actions would impact on oil markets; how emerging economies -- led by China and India -- will increasingly shape the global energy landscape; what role renewables can play in a clean and secure energy future; what removing fossil-fuel subsidies would mean for energy markets, climate change and state budgets; the trends in Caspian energy markets and the implications for global energy supply; the prospects for unconventional oil; and how to give the entire global population access to modern energy services. With extensive data, projections and analysis, this publication provides invaluable insights into how the energy system could evolve over the next quarter of a century. The book is essential reading for anyone with a stake in the energy sector.

  14. Teaching about Women in World History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocco, Margaret Smith

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the subject of teaching about women in world history in K-12 schools and in programs of social studies teacher education. It includes a review of the place of gender in teaching about world history to current and future teachers at Teachers College, Columbia University. This informal research serves as the platform for a set…

  15. The World Needs a New Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prensky, Marc

    2014-01-01

    The author proposes that today's existing, world-wide curriculum--based on offering roughly the same math, language arts, science, and social studies to all--is not what is required for the future, and is hurting rather than helping the world's students. Math, language arts, science, and social studies, he argues, are really "proxies"…

  16. World nuclear performance report 2017

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cobb, Jonathan

    2017-01-01

    World Nuclear Association recently published the 2017 edition of the World Nuclear Performance Report. The report presents key metrics that illustrate current performance, both of reactors currently operating and those under construction. The article highlights some of the most important findings of the report. The pace of new build will need to accelerate if nuclear energy is going to make a growing contribution to the global electricity generation mix, a requirement of many projections of future scenarios that aim to meet the objective of limiting the rise average temperatures to below two degrees Celsius, while at the same time meeting the growing worldwide demand for electricity.

  17. Thyroid Disease Around the World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maniakas, Anastasios; Davies, Louise; Zafereo, Mark E

    2018-06-01

    Thyroid disease is one of the most common pathologies in the world, with two of the most clinically important subgroups being iodine deficiency and thyroid goiter, and thyroid cancer. This review looks at the current state of thyroid disease in the world and evaluates the future direction in terms of thyroid disease treatment and prevention. Several of the most impactful epidemiologic studies are presented and analyzed, as well as a brief overview of the current socioeconomic burden of disease. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. World nuclear performance report 2017

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cobb, Jonathan [World Nuclear Association, London (United Kingdom)

    2017-08-15

    World Nuclear Association recently published the 2017 edition of the World Nuclear Performance Report. The report presents key metrics that illustrate current performance, both of reactors currently operating and those under construction. The article highlights some of the most important findings of the report. The pace of new build will need to accelerate if nuclear energy is going to make a growing contribution to the global electricity generation mix, a requirement of many projections of future scenarios that aim to meet the objective of limiting the rise average temperatures to below two degrees Celsius, while at the same time meeting the growing worldwide demand for electricity.

  19. Perceptions of Talented Students in Their Visual Representations about the Future World and Technology (Üstün Yetenekli Öğrencilerin Görsel Anlatımlarında Geleceğin Dünyasına ve Teknolojisine İlişkin Algıları

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Duygu Erişti

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose and significance: The present study aimed at investigating talented students’ artistic representations and perceptions regarding the future world and technology through their animated designs according to their design-based representations. A learning environment which allows talented students to use their ability, thoughts and creativity in the process of design-based instructional activities is of great interest for them. It is important for talented students to have instructional experiences which provide independent and unique learning opportunities and special application areas that allow these students to show their abilities (CfBT, 2008. Results: The participants of the study were talented elementary school students attending the Education Programs for Talented Students (EPTS at Anadolu University. The criterion sampling method was used to select the research participants. The criterion for selecting the participants was attendance in the course of ‘Computer-Aided Graphics Design’ offered in the EPTS. The participants included a total of 35 elementary school 6th, 7th and 8th grade talented students. The study was conducted in three phases: instruction process, design process and evaluation process. Some preliminary preparations related to the design program were carried out considering that the students would use them while doing animated designs through the instruction process. The instruction phase involved an animated representation study during which the students designed their own animations. In the last phase, all the animate designs of the talented students were analyzed. The thematic analysis based on qualitative research method along with art-based inquiry was used. The thematic coding system for analyzing concepts revealed from the research data was implemented. The visual language used in pictorial representations produce messages, with its specialized codes. The degree of students’ understanding and explaining

  20. Pastoral suitability driven by future climate change along the Apennines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilla Dibari

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This work aims at evaluating the impacts of climate change on pastoral resources located along the Apennines chain. To this end, random forest machine learning model was first calibrated for the present period and then applied to future conditions, as projected by HadCM3 general circulation model, in order to simulate possible spatial variation/shift of pastoral areas in two time slices (centred on 2050 and 2080 under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Pre-existent spatial database, namely Corine land cover map and WorldClim, were integrated and harmonised in a GIS environment in order to extract climate variables (mean seasonal precipitation, mean maximum temperature of the warmest month and minimum temperature of the coldest month and response variables (presence/absence of pastures to be used as model predictors. Random forest model resulted robust and coherent to simulate pastureland suitability under current climatology (classification accuracy error=19%. Accordingly, results indicated that increases in temperatures coupled with decreases in precipitation, as simulated by HadCM3 in the future, would have impacts of great concern on potential pasture distribution. In the specific, an overall decline of pasturelands suitability is predicted by the middle of the century in both A2 (–46% and B2 (–41% along the entire chain. However, despite alarming reductions in pastures suitability along the northern (–69% and –71% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively and central Apennines (–90% under both scenarios by the end of the century, expansions are predicted along the southern areas of the chain (+96% and +105% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. This may be probably due to expansions in pastures dominated by xeric and thermophiles species, which will likely benefit from warmer and drier future conditions predicted in the southern zone of the chain by the HadCM3. Hence, the expected climate, coupled with an increasing abandonment of the

  1. The future of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romer, A.

    2001-01-01

    The article discusses not only the future of energy and resource consumption in various areas of the world, but also its development over the centuries since the industrial revolution. The present situation, with large discrepancies between the energy consumption of industrialised nations and the developing countries is examined. Social and environmental aspects are discussed and the sustainable use of the Earth's resources and the inconsistencies in this area is looked at. Rather than adopting a moralistic approach, the article appeals to man's powers of innovation and sense of responsibility in order to develop solutions to today's and future energy supply problems. The article is richly illustrated with diagrams and graphs on world energy and social statistics

  2. World power engineering. General review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alekseev, B.A.; Vol'fberg, D.B.; Ershevich, V.V.

    1989-01-01

    State and prospects of the world power engineering development are considered. Eelectricity production requires the greatest part of the world total energy consumption. The latter will grow and in future at the beginning of the next century it reaches 50%. The part of NPPs in 1986 constituted 12% in power and 16% in electricity production. In the middle of 1987 403 NPP units of 298 GW total power were in operation in the world; 138 units (123 GW) were under construction and 84 units (84 GW) were planed. In 1987 power units of 216 GW total power were put into operation. The largest NPPs are Fukushima (Japan) - 9.0 GW, Bruce(Canada) - 8.4 GW, Gravelines (France) - 5.56 GW

  3. Future glaciation in Fennoscandia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forsstroem, L. [Oulu Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Geosciences

    1999-09-01

    Cyclic growing and melting of great ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere is typical for the Quaternary Period, and it is likely that this cycle will continue in the future. This report discusses the principal processes predicted to occur during the future glaciation which are likely to be of importance for a nuclear waste repository. It is a revised version of a synthesis of the results of two state-of-the art reports, working meetings and a seminar. Based on present knowledge, two alternative trends (A and B) can be presented for fluctuations in climate in Fennoscandia. According to forecast A the climate will gradually become colder, permitting the growth of glaciers in the mountainous areas of Norway and Sweden after 5000 years. After a minor warmer period, a greater ice advance will cover a large part of Finland around 20 000 years from now. After a new minor interstade, the ice will advance again, so that c. 60 000 years from now the Stockholm-Helsinki region will be covered by thick ice. The ice sheet will melt partially at 70 000 years AP, but then it will grow to its maximum around 100 000 years AP and cover the whole Baltic basin. Almost complete melting of the ice sheet will take place during the next interglaciation c. 120 coo years AP. According to forecast B the growth of the ice sheet will not begin for another 50 000 years, and Finland will be covered by ice about 60 000 years from now. After a minor melting, the ice sheet will enlarge and cover almost the whole Baltic basin 100 000 years from now. During the following ice minimum, at 120 000 years AP, the ice sheet will still cover northern Finland. At 150 000 years it will cover the whole Baltic basin, but then it will melt almost completely by 165 000 years from now, during the following interglaciation. In both forecasts the main changes caused by the ice sheet will be downwarping/uplift of the crust and changes in sea level. In addition, changes in the groundwater head and flux are foreseen

  4. Life on a warmer earth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flohn, H

    1981-01-01

    This nontechnical report explores the interaction between energy and climate, particularly the impacts of fossil fuel use. Nuclear energy and solar energy are also discussed, and the expected global warming effects caused by CO/sub 2/ released by burning fossil fuels and other trace gases are described. (JMT)

  5. Food Safety for Warmer Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... fruits and vegetables. Avoid undercooked seafood, meats, and eggs. For safe cooking temperature, see Foodsafety.gov . Keep raw meat, poultry, seafood, and their juices away from other foods. Keep hot foods hot and ... pasteurized eggs and egg products. Report suspected foodborne illness to ...

  6. Warmer amps for the LHC

    CERN Multimedia

    Anaïs Schaeffer

    2012-01-01

    CERN is working together with an Italian company to develop superconducting cables that can function at temperatures of up to 25 K (-248°C). This will make it possible to move LHC magnet power supplies out of the tunnel, protecting them from exposure to the showers of very high-energy particles produced by the accelerator.   Figure 1: devices of this type, which measure approximately 10 metres in length, are inserted between the accelerating magnets at different points along the LHC. When it comes to consuming electricity, the magnets that steer particles through large accelerators can be characterised with just one word: greedy. For the LHC, the total current can reach 1.5 million amps. At the present time, this current is brought in via copper cables of up to 10 cm in diameter. In the tunnel, these cables connect the current leads - which provide the transition between the ambient-temperature cables and the magnets in their bath of superfluid helium - to the power supply. In the a...

  7. Sustainability in a multipolar world

    OpenAIRE

    Basha i Novosejt, A.; Weterings, R.; Ridder, M. de; Frinking, E.

    2010-01-01

    In its 30-Year Update of the well-known publication ‘The Limits to growth’ the Club of Rome stressed that the once debated notion of a physically limited world growth is becoming apparent in many well-documented studies. Three decades ago, the Brundtland Commission on Development and Environment initiated an international momentum to secure the needs of both present and future generations through a joint policy agenda for sustainable development. Institutions such as the United Nations played...

  8. World gas supply-demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rushby, I.L.

    1996-01-01

    The rapid growth in demand for natural gas from a global perspective is documented in this paper. Low prices compared to other fuels and a return to normal winter temperatures is argued to be the cause of this increase in consumption. Natural gas production and prices for 1995 are discussed and forecasts made for future years, in particular the prospects for LNG in Asia. Data on energy growth and gas specific information in world markets are included. (UK)

  9. Worldwide Impact of Warmer Seasons on the Incidence of Renal Colic and Kidney Stone Disease: Evidence from a Systematic Review of Literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geraghty, Robert M; Proietti, Silvia; Traxer, Olivier; Archer, Matthew; Somani, Bhaskar K

    2017-08-01

    Several studies have examined the link between temperature or monthly seasonal variations and urolithiasis. The majority of these studies have demonstrated a link between higher ambient monthly temperatures and the incidence of renal colic and kidney stone disease (KSD). However, a worldwide trend on this association has not been explored and we perform a systematic review to examine the effect of seasonal variations on renal colic and KSD. A systematic review of the literature for a 26-year period (1990-2017) was conducted on all studies reporting on the effect of seasonal variations and its link to KSD. Two reviewers independently extracted the data from each study, which were analyzed using SPSS version 24. A total of 59 studies were identified, and after screening, 13 were included in this review. The studies ranged in duration from 1 to 9 years (mean: 5.5 years) and included seasonal/monthly variations for proven stones or lithotripsy treatments or emergency department presentations with renal colic. Except for one study, there was a statistically significant association between higher monthly mean temperatures and the incidence of KSD-related events reported from the United Kingdom, South Korea, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Italy, Spain, Taiwan, Japan, and New Zealand. Worldwide trends on the incidence of renal colic and KSD seem be affected by seasonal variation favoring warmer months, with data suggesting that higher ambient temperature has an association with KSD.

  10. Explicit training in human values and social attitudes of future engineers in Spain : commentary on "preparing to understand and use science in the real world: interdisciplinary study concentrations at the technical University of Darmstadt".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabregat, Jaime

    2013-12-01

    In Spain before the 1990s there was no clear and explicit comprehensive training for future engineers with regard to social responsibility and social commitment. Following the Spanish university curricular reform, which began in the early 1990s, a number of optional subjects became available to students, concerning science, technology and society (STS), international cooperation, the environment and sustainability. The latest redefinition of the Spanish curriculum in line with the Bologna agreements has reduced the number of non-obligatory subjects, but could lead to improving preparation for social responsibility due to the requirement that the design of curricula and the assessment of students should be based on competencies, some of which include human values and attitudes.

  11. What to think about deterrence? New absolute weapons? The beautiful future of the concept of deterrence. Can the world free itself from nuclear deterrence? Deterrence, did you say deterrence?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henrotin, Joseph; Le Dauphin, Jacques; Vahe, Raphael

    2010-09-01

    In a first article, a researcher comments and discusses the evolution of the concept of deterrence from a conventional and tactical approach to a strategic approach. He notices that the end of Cold War resulted in an important evolution of this concept and of its theory. As the nuclear weapon has been appearing as the absolute weapon since 1945, the question is now to see whether war would be different without nuclear weapons, and then whether chemical weapons could prevail and become again the absolute weapons as they were in the 1930's. In the next article, the author recalls the Church's position about nuclear weapons: condemnation as a matter of principle, and call for a progressive disarmament leading to a world without nuclear weapons. He notices that nuclear deterrence was the foundation of equilibriums during the Cold War, and that the end of Cold War resulted in strategic upheavals and difficulties to implement the non-proliferation regime. He also comments the initiative of President Obama for nuclear disarmament, and wanders whether there will be a realistic alternative to deterrence. The last article comments the historical evolutions of deterrence during the Cold War, and after the Cold War

  12. Natural-gas world reserves and world resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eickhoff, G.; Rempel, H.

    1995-01-01

    Natural gas is extracted in nearly 80 countries, 12 of which have a share of four fifths in the world extraction and 15 of which have a share of four fifths in the world consumption. The natural-gas world reserves can cover the present annual demand for years beyond the middle of the coming century. According to current assessments, the resources which presently cannot be extracted economically, the expected additional resources, and the extractable share in the potential of unconventional natural gas amount to more than ten times the reliable world reserves of natural gas. From the geological and technical points of view the world natural-gas extraction will not decrease or cease in the near future. However, the more expensive development of unconventional deposits which are located far away from the end-user will have to be preferred over the medium term on account of the exhaustion of the known deposits whose exploitation is comparatively cheap. (orig./UA) [de

  13. Future nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosbah, D.S.; Nasreddine, M.

    2006-01-01

    The book includes an introduction then it speaks about the options to secure sources of energy, nuclear power option, nuclear plants to generate energy including light-water reactors (LWR), heavy-water reactors (HWR), advanced gas-cooled reactors (AGR), fast breeder reactors (FBR), development in the manufacture of reactors, fuel, uranium in the world, current status of nuclear power generation, economics of nuclear power, nuclear power and the environment and nuclear power in the Arab world. A conclusion at the end of the book suggests the increasing demand for energy in the industrialized countries and in a number of countries that enjoy special and economic growth such as China and India pushes the world to search for different energy sources to insure the urgent need for current and anticipated demand in the near and long-term future in light of pessimistic and optimistic outlook for energy in the future. This means that states do a scientific and objective analysis of the currently available data for the springboard to future plans to secure the energy required to support economy and welfare insurance.

  14. Conference assesses world oil supply scene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the Offshore Northern Seas conference heard a number of long term outlooks in Stavanger, Norway, last week, all with the same conclusion: the oil and gas industry needs massive investment if it is to match future demand. Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Bruntland built her scenario on a doubling of world population every 40 years. Mrs. Bruntland emphasized the growing dependence of the world economy on Middle East developments. Two thirds of the world's oil reserves are in the Persian Gulf region, she said, but only 28% of production comes from there. As the rest of the world depletes its reserves, dependence on Persian Gulf oil will grow

  15. Future Textiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anne-Louise Degn; Jensen, Hanne Troels Fusvad; Hansen, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Magasinet Future Textiles samler resultaterne fra projektet Future Textiles, der markedsfører området intelligente tekstiler. I magasinet kan man læse om trends, drivkræfter, udfordringer samt få ideer til nye produkter inden for intelligente tekstiler. Områder som bæredygtighed og kundetilpasning...

  16. Futures Brokerages Face uncertain Future

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG PEI

    2006-01-01

    @@ 2005 was a quiet year for China's futures market.After four new trading products, including cotton, fuel oil and corn, were launched on the market in 2004, the development of the market seemed to stagnate. The trade value of the futures market totaled 13.4 trillion yuan (US$ 1.67 trillion) in 2005, down 8.5 percent year-on-year. Although the decrease is quite small and the trade value was still the second highest in the market's history, the majority of futures brokerage firms were running in the red. In some areas, up to 80 percent of futures companies made losses.

  17. WORLD HEALTH DAY THEMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S C Saxena

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available 1970     - Early Detection of Cancer Saves Life.1971     - A Full Life Despite Diabetes.1972     - Your Heart is Your Health.1973     - Health Begins at Home.1974     - Better Food for a Healthier World.1975     - Small Pox - Point of no Return.1976     - Foresight Prevents Blindness.1977     - Immunise and Protect Your Child.1978     - Down With High Blood Pressure.1979     - A Health Child-A Sure Future.1980     - Smoking or Health - The Choice is Yours.1981     - Health for all for by the Year 2000.1982     - Add Years to Life.1983     - Health for all by 2000 - The Count Down has Begun1984     - Children’s Health: Tomorrows Wealth.1985     - Health Youth : Our best Resource.1986     - Health Living - Everyone a Winner.1987     - Immunisation - A Chance for Every Child.1988     - Health For All - All for Health.1989-Let’s Talk Health.1990    - Our Planet - Ourhealth; Think Globally, Act Locally.1991    - Should Disaster Strike - Be Prepared.1992    - Health Beat - The Rhythm of Life.1993    - Handle Life with Care - Prevent Violence and Negligence.1994    - Our Health for a Healthy Life.1995    - Target - 2000 - A World Without Polio.1996    - Healthy Cities for Better Life.1997    - Emerging Infectious Diseases.1998    - Safe Motherhood.1999    - Active Ageing Makes the Difference.2000     - Be a Life Saver, Be a Blood Doner; Blood Saves Life.2001     - Stop Exclusion, Dare to Care.2002     - Move for Health.- Shape the Future of Life, Healthy Environments for Children

  18. Warmer and Wetter Soil Stimulates Assimilation More than Respiration in Rainfed Agricultural Ecosystem on the China Loess Plateau: The Role of Partial Plastic Film Mulching Tillage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Daozhi; Hao, Weiping; Mei, Xurong; Gao, Xiang; Liu, Qi; Caylor, Kelly

    2015-01-01

    Effects of agricultural practices on ecosystem carbon storage have acquired widespread concern due to its alleviation of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Recently, combining of furrow-ridge with plastic film mulching in spring maize ecosystem was widely applied to boost crop water productivity in the semiarid regions of China. However, there is still limited information about the potentials for increased ecosystem carbon storage of this tillage method. The objective of this study was to quantify and contrast net carbon dioxide exchange, biomass accumulation and carbon budgets of maize (Zea maize L.) fields under the traditional non-mulching with flat tillage (CK) and partial plastic film mulching with furrow-ridge tillage (MFR) on the China Loess Plateau. Half-hourly net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of both treatments were synchronously measured with two eddy covariance systems during the growing seasons of 2011 through 2013. At same time green leaf area index (GLAI) and biomass were also measured biweekly. Compared with CK, the warmer and wetter (+1.3°C and +4.3%) top soil at MFR accelerated the rates of biomass accumulation, promoted greater green leaf area and thus shortened the growing seasons by an average value of 10.4 days for three years. MFR stimulated assimilation more than respiration during whole growing season, resulting in a higher carbon sequestration in terms of NEE of -79 gC/m2 than CK. However, after considering carbon in harvested grain (or aboveground biomass), there is a slight higher carbon sink (or a stronger carbon source) in MFR due to its greater difference of aboveground biomass than that of grain between both treatments. These results demonstrate that partial plastic film mulched furrow-ridge tillage with aboveground biomass exclusive of grain returned to the soil is an effective way to enhance simultaneously carbon sequestration and grain yield of maize in the semiarid regions.

  19. Warmer and Wetter Soil Stimulates Assimilation More than Respiration in Rainfed Agricultural Ecosystem on the China Loess Plateau: The Role of Partial Plastic Film Mulching Tillage.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daozhi Gong

    Full Text Available Effects of agricultural practices on ecosystem carbon storage have acquired widespread concern due to its alleviation of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Recently, combining of furrow-ridge with plastic film mulching in spring maize ecosystem was widely applied to boost crop water productivity in the semiarid regions of China. However, there is still limited information about the potentials for increased ecosystem carbon storage of this tillage method. The objective of this study was to quantify and contrast net carbon dioxide exchange, biomass accumulation and carbon budgets of maize (Zea maize L. fields under the traditional non-mulching with flat tillage (CK and partial plastic film mulching with furrow-ridge tillage (MFR on the China Loess Plateau. Half-hourly net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE of both treatments were synchronously measured with two eddy covariance systems during the growing seasons of 2011 through 2013. At same time green leaf area index (GLAI and biomass were also measured biweekly. Compared with CK, the warmer and wetter (+1.3°C and +4.3% top soil at MFR accelerated the rates of biomass accumulation, promoted greater green leaf area and thus shortened the growing seasons by an average value of 10.4 days for three years. MFR stimulated assimilation more than respiration during whole growing season, resulting in a higher carbon sequestration in terms of NEE of -79 gC/m2 than CK. However, after considering carbon in harvested grain (or aboveground biomass, there is a slight higher carbon sink (or a stronger carbon source in MFR due to its greater difference of aboveground biomass than that of grain between both treatments. These results demonstrate that partial plastic film mulched furrow-ridge tillage with aboveground biomass exclusive of grain returned to the soil is an effective way to enhance simultaneously carbon sequestration and grain yield of maize in the semiarid regions.

  20. Deploying Embodied AI into Virtual Worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, David J. H.

    The last two years have seen the start of commercial activity within virtual worlds. Unlike computer games where Non-Player-Character avatars are common, in most virtual worlds they are the exception — and until recently in Second Life they were non-existent. However there is real commercial scope for Als in these worlds — in roles from virtual sales staff and tutors to personal assistants. Deploying an embodied AI into a virtual world offers a unique opportunity to evaluate embodied Als, and to develop them within an environment where human and computer are on almost equal terms. This paper presents an architecture being used for the deployment of chatbot driven avatars within the Second Life virtual world, looks at the challenges of deploying an AI within such a virtual world, the possible implications for the Turing Test, and identifies research directions for the future.

  1. Solar energy in progress and future research trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sen, Zekai [Istanbul Technical Univ., Dept. of Meteorology, Istanbul (Turkey)

    2004-07-01

    Extensive fossil fuel consumption in almost all human activities led to some undesirable phenomena such as atmospheric and environmental pollutions, which have not been experienced before in known human history. Consequently, global warming, greenhouse affect, climate change, ozone layer depletion and acid rain terminologies started to appear in the literature frequently. Since 1970, it has been understood scientifically by experiments and researches that these phenomena are closely related to fossil fuel uses because they emit greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and methane (CH{sub 4}) which hinder the long wave terrestrial radiation to escape into space, and consequently, the earth troposphere becomes warmer. In order to avoid further impacts of these phenomena, the two concentrative alternatives are either to improve the fossil fuel quality with reductions in their harmful emissions into the atmosphere or more significantly to replace fossil fuel usage as much as possible with environmentally friendly, clean and renewable energy sources. Among these sources, solar energy comes at the top of the list due to its abundance, and more evenly distribution in nature than any other renewable energy types such as wind, geothermal, hydro, wave and tidal energies. It must be the main and common purpose of humanity to sustain environment for the betterment of future generations with sustainable energy developments. On the other hand, the known limits of fossil fuels compel the societies of the world in the long run to work jointly for their gradual replacement by renewable energy alternatives rather than the quality improvement of fossil sources. Solar radiation is an integral part of different renewable energy resources. It is the main and continuous input variable from practically inexhaustible sun. Solar energy is expected to play a very significant role in the future especially in developing countries, but it has also potential prospects for developed

  2. Sustainable Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sustainable Futures is a voluntary program that encourages industry to use predictive models to screen new chemicals early in the development process and offers incentives to companies subject to TSCA section 5.

  3. World Energy Outlook 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    Industry and government decision-makers and others with a stake in the energy sector all benefit from the contents of World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2012. It presents authoritative projections of energy trends through to 2035 and insights into what they mean for energy security, environmental sustainability and economic development. Oil, coal, natural gas, renewables and nuclear power are all covered, together with an update on climate change issues. Global energy demand, production, trade, investment and carbon dioxide emissions are broken down by region or country, by fuel and by sector. Special strategic analyses cover: What unlocking the purely economic potential for energy efficiency could do, country by country and sector by sector, for energy markets, the economy and the environment; The Iraqi energy sector, examining both its importance in satisfying the country’s own needs and its crucial role in meeting global oil and gas demand; The water-energy nexus, as water resources become increasingly stressed and access more contentious; Measures of progress towards providing universal access to modern energy services. There are many uncertainties, but many decisions cannot wait. The insights of this publication are invaluable to those who must shape our energy future.

  4. World Hunger: Teaching about World Hunger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Jane

    1982-01-01

    Discusses the teaching of world hunger in the classroom. Controversial questions and map skills for students are discussed as well as activities for home economics and science classes. A list of resource materials is included. (AM)

  5. World Health Organization

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... introduce large-scale mDiabetes services using mobile phones. World Diabetes Day 2017 Feature: Senegal mobile phone project Fact sheet: diabetes World Antibiotic Awareness Week 13 November 2017 – Antibiotic resistance ...

  6. The World Airpower Compendium

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Blackburn, Mark

    1996-01-01

    In today's rapidly changing world a current, accurate, and easily accessible data base of all the world's airpower assets is valuable to military students, educators, and war gaming professionals alike...

  7. The Real World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner, John Sears

    1981-01-01

    Relates personal experiences about what constitutes the "real world." Shows how experiences from philosophy, history, literature, art, and the movies add meaning to "reality." Stresses a compromise of imagination and sensation to make the real world palatable. (RL)

  8. The World of Nothing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valery A. Kayukov

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a comparative analysis of knowledge about the world of nothingness. J. Boehme pointed to the fact that the world of Nothing is everlasting emptiness, where and wherein the material world could emerge. But the thing is that the world of absolute emptiness did not vanish at the moment of beginning of the world, quite the reverse, it has somehow been permanently enlarging. What will happen next is still a question. Perhaps our world will begin to be moving back on a new spiral of development, perhaps a real transition to the world of nothing will have appeared in this subtle place. For the present it is clear that these two worlds have not touched each other in mutually beneficial communication so far, and everything from our world passes into the world of nothing, and in general, the world of nothing ontologically appears to be much more existential than the world of apparent reality. What can give us some kind of key point at least, be some kind of organon in interaction with these two worlds - with the world of Nothing in which there is no matter and which cannot be perceived by any senses, and with the world of matter in which all senses are unstable and changeable? In our opinion, the only beacon and the instrument of knowledge can be the mind. To understand this phenomenon, by benefiting from a comparative methodology, this study investigates opinions of a number of philosophers, J. Boehme, G.V.F. Hegel, M. Heidegger, and J.P. Sartre, on the existence of the world of nothing.

  9. World Engineer’s Convention 2011: Engineers Power the World

    CERN Multimedia

    Yi Ling Hwong (Knowledge Transfer) and Katarina Anthony

    2011-01-01

    Can the increasing global energy consumption be met without intensifying global warming? Do the necessary technical solutions exist, and is the switch to a low-carbon energy supply feasible and financially viable? These crucial questions and many others were dealt with at the 2011World Engineer’s Convention (WEC). CERN was invited to participate in the event, highlighting its significant contribution to global engineering with an exhibition space devoted to the LHC on the convention floor and a keynote speech delivered by CERN’s Director-General.   From 4 – 9 September 2011, more than 2000 engineers and researchers, as well as politicians and business representatives from about 100 countries gathered at the 2011World Engineer’s Convention (WEC). Held in Geneva, Switzerland, they met to discuss solutions for a sustainable energy future. Discussions looked at the development of engineering solutions through a variety of approaches, with ...

  10. The Ocean: Our Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Independent World Commission On The Oceans; Soares, Mario

    1998-09-01

    The Ocean, Our Future is the official report of the Independent World Commission on the Oceans, chaired by Mário Soares, former President of Portugal. Its aim is to summarize the very real problems affecting the ocean and its future management, and to provide imaginative solutions to these various and interlocking problems. The oceans have traditionally been taken for granted as a source of wealth, opportunity and abundance. Our growing understanding of the oceans has fundamentally changed this perception. We now know that in some areas, abundance is giving way to real scarcity, resulting in severe conflicts. Territorial disputes that threaten peace and security, disruptions to global climate, overfishing, habitat destruction, species extinction, indiscriminate trawling, pollution, the dumping of hazardous and toxic wastes, piracy, terrorism, illegal trafficking and the destruction of coastal communities are among the problems that today form an integral part of the unfolding drama of the oceans. Based on the deliberations, experience and input of more than 100 specialists from around the world, this timely volume provides a powerful overview of the state of our water world.

  11. Semantic Game Worlds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tutenel, T.

    2012-01-01

    The visual quality of game worlds increased massively in the last three decades. However, the closer game worlds depict reality, the more noticeable it is for gamers when objects do not behave accordingly. An important problem is that the data of a game world is often scattered across different

  12. Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buccola, Norman; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

    2016-01-01

    A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990–1999) and future (2059–2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam’s spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake’s surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake’s surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered

  13. Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buccola, Norman L.; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

    2016-04-01

    A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990-1999) and future (2059-2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam's spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake's surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake's surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered salmonids. A

  14. Future Contingents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter; Hasle., Per F. V.

    2015-01-01

    contingent statements. The problem of future contingents is interwoven with a number of issues in theology, philosophy, logic, semantics of natural language, computer science, and applied mathematics. The theological issue of how to reconcile the assumption of God's foreknowledge with the freedom and moral...... accountability of human beings has been a main impetus to the discussion and a major inspiration to the development of various logical models of time and future contingents. This theological issue is connected with the general philosophical question of determinism versus indeterminism. Within logic, the relation...... about the future. Finally, it should be mentioned that temporal logic has found a remarkable application in computer science and applied mathematics. In the late 1970s the first computer scientists realised the relevance of temporal logic for the purposes of computer science (see Hasle and Øhrstrøm 2004)....

  15. Future Contingents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter; Hasle., Per F. V.

    2011-01-01

    contingent statements. The problem of future contingents is interwoven with a number of issues in theology, philosophy, logic, semantics of natural language, computer science, and applied mathematics. The theological issue of how to reconcile the assumption of God's foreknowledge with the freedom and moral...... accountability of human beings has been a main impetus to the discussion and a major inspiration to the development of various logical models of time and future contingents. This theological issue is connected with the general philosophical question of determinism versus indeterminism. Within logic, the relation...... about the future. Finally, it should be mentioned that temporal logic has found a remarkable application in computer science and applied mathematics. In the late 1970s the first computer scientists realised the relevance of temporal logic for the purposes of computer science (see Hasle and Øhrstrøm 2004)....

  16. Future Savvy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gordon, Adam

    There's no shortage of predictions available to organizations looking to anticipate and profit from future events or trends. Apparently helpful forecasts are ubiquitous in everyday communications such as newspapers and business magazines, and in specialized sources such as government and think......-tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock-market guides. These resources are crucial, but they are also of very mixed quality. How can decision-makers know which predictions to take seriously, which to be wary of, and which to throw out entirely? Future Savvy provides analytical filters to judging predictive...... systematic "forecast filtering" to reveal strengths and weakness in the predictions they face. Future Savvy empowers both business and policy/government decision-makers to use forecasts wisely and so improve their judgment in anticipating opportunities, avoiding threats, and managing uncertainty....

  17. World nuclear fuel market. Eighteenth annual meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    The papers presented at the eighteenth World Nuclear Fuels Market meeting are cataloged separately. This volume includes information on the following areas of interest: world uranium enrichment capacity and enriched uranium inventories; the impact of new enrichment technologies; predictions of future market trends; non-proliferation aspects of nuclear trade; and a debate as to whether uranium can be successfully traded on a commodities exchange

  18. VACCINES AND IMMUNIZATION: WORLD SITUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.H. Brundtland

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The last issue of the report «vaccines and immunization: world situation» stresses considerable success in immunization at the global level since the mid 90 s — completely total eradication of poliomyelitis across the world, as well as the drastic reduction of the new measles and tetanus cases among mothers and newborns in some poor countries. The report also briefly describes the progress in the development and implementation of the new life saving vaccines, which may save millions of lives annually. The authors have explained some of the reasons, why the global community should invest in immunization, as well as the perspectives for the use of vaccines and immunization in future.Key words: vaccine, immunization, children.

  19. Difficult to foresee tomorrow's world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2016-01-01

    Some countries like Italy or Kazakhstan have given up nuclear power but others (Viet-Nam, Bangladesh, Egypt, Turkey) have the willingness to enter the nuclear world to sustain their development while complying with their environmental obligations. Others like United Arab Emirates, Belarus have their first reactor being built and other countries like France, Finland, United States, Slovakia, Brazil, Pakistan, India, Taiwan, South-Korea, China, Russia, Ukraine are reinforcing their reactor fleet by building new reactors. A total of 62 reactors is being built throughout the world with 22 in China. New construction of reactors, the dismantling of decommissioned installations and the integration of nuclear power in new economic models make the future brighter for nuclear industry. (A.C.)

  20. Energy Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davies, Sarah Rachael; Selin, Cynthia

    2012-01-01

    foresight and public and stakeholder engagement are used to reflect on?and direct?the impacts of new technology. In this essay we draw on our experience of anticipatory governance, in the shape of the ?NanoFutures? project on energy futures, to present a reflexive analysis of engagement and deliberation. We...... draw out five tensions of the practice of deliberation on energy technologies. Through tracing the lineages of these dilemmas, we discuss some of the implications of these tensions for the practice of civic engagement and deliberation in a set of questions for this community of practitioner-scholars....

  1. Bitcoin futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brøgger, Søren Bundgaard

    2018-01-01

    Med introduktionen af et futures-marked er Bitcoin-eksponering blevet tilgængelig for en bredere gruppe af investorer, som hidtil ikke har kunnet eller villet tilgå det underliggende marked for Bitcoin. Artiklen finder, at kontrakterne umiddelbart favoriserer spekulanter på bekostning af hedgers og...

  2. Doing methodological cosmopolitanism in a mobile world

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tyfield, David; Blok, Anders

    2016-01-01

    A decade of mobilities research has responded to the key question of how a ‘world on the move’ can and should be studied, including in terms of futures thereby brought into view and possibly shaped into being. What happens, however, if we shift our focus from the ‘world on the move’ to the ‘world...... imperatives, specifically regarding dynamic, interactive and power-attentive forms of social knowledge-making or phronesis, a situated practical wisdom. We illustrate these points in brief with insights from our own methodologically cosmopolitan research on key contemporary cosmopolitized issues, undertaken...

  3. EnerFuture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    EnerFuture offers short term energy demand forecasts for oil, gas, electricity and coal, in the 52 major energy countries in the world. Also included are the historical data series since 1997, extracted from the international ENERDATA Information System. It contents electricity consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture; oil consumption per sector: industry, transport, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from oil; gas consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from gas; coal consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from coal. (A.L.B.)

  4. Partnership for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, R.I.

    1993-01-01

    The benefits of partnerships in the profitable exploration, development, and management of the world's hydrocarbon resources are discussed. A unique period in history is being experienced in the oil and gas industry. Over the next decade, all of the participants will be faced with a number of opportunities and challenges. No longer will having technical expertise or control of vast resources alone create wealth for a company or country. Long-term profitability will result from decisions and policies made by the owners of these assets. Prudent, efficient, and profitable management of resources through partnership will benefit both parties and enrich the standard of living for future generations

  5. The future of energy

    CERN Document Server

    Towler, Brian F

    2014-01-01

    Using the principle that extracting energy from the environment always involves some type of impact on the environment, The Future of Energy discusses the sources, technologies, and tradeoffs involved in meeting the world's energy needs. A historical, scientific, and technical background set the stage for discussions on a wide range of energy sources, including conventional fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal, as well as emerging renewable sources like solar, wind, geothermal, and biofuels. Readers will learn that there are no truly ""green"" energy sources-all energy usage involves some trad

  6. Strategic library futures

    CERN Document Server

    Baker, David

    2014-01-01

    This ebook focuses on the future of libraries and the strategies which they should best adopt in order to respond effectively to significantly changed circumstances and requirements. This ebook, then, looks at the significant challenges facing librarians as they adopt new technologies and adapt to a world that can never be the same again. But all the authors in this ebook are able to paint a positive picture of developments, with a wide range of descriptions of how librarianship is transforming itself to help shape and lead information and resource provision and discovery in ways unimaginable

  7. News of the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2007-01-01

    8 nuclear power plants are operating in Spain, they generate about 23% of the production of electricity in the country. A broad debate has been launched to clarify the future of nuclear energy in Spain. The 2 oldest plants in the world: Dungeness-A and Sizewell-A in U.K. have been decommissioned. In U.K. 23 nuclear power plants are operating and all except one will have to be closed by 2023 to let room for a new generation of reactors. Korean authorities wish to invest 23.5 milliard euros in the building of 39 power plants among which 8 will be nuclear. Swiss authorities have launched a public debate on the selection procedure of a site for the disposal in deep geological layers of radioactive wastes. Jordanian authorities wish to develop a civil nuclear program. French authorities have announced that a total of 6500 radioactive sources are used throughout the country for research or industrial purposes. Only 34% of the German people back a quick step out from nuclear energy and 60% of the Pole are not against the construction of a nuclear power plant. Finnish authorities consider a sixth reactor as a valid solution to face the strong energy demand of the country. Australian authorities consider the development of a nuclear energy program in Australia as an adequate measure to take benefit of the large uranium natural resource of the country and to face the growing demand for electricity. Australian authorities have signed an agreement with Chinese counterparts for exporting uranium. Russian authorities have passed a bill for reforming the nuclear industry in order to make it more competitive. (A.C.)

  8. From the nuclear world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2016-01-01

    This document gathers pieces of information concerning nuclear industry worldwide. The most relevant are the following ones. CGN (China General Nuclear) will launched in 2017 the construction of a prototype of a small transportable modular reactor whose purpose is to produce electricity on a remote place like an island or aboard a boat for long-term missions. The Wylfa reactor (490 MWe) was decommissioned on December 30., 2015. Wylfa was the last Magnox type reactor operating in the world. In France a campaign of information and iodine drug dispatching has been launched for people living near nuclear power plants. The global cost of the CIGEO project whose aim is the disposal of high-level radioactive wastes has been estimated to 25 billions euros including construction costs, operating costs over a 100 year period and dismantling costs. The European Commission has warned France that the financial provisions made for the dismantling of nuclear facilities and the processing of the consequent wastes are not sufficient to cover the future costs. 4 reactors with a power of 1400 MWe each, are being built on the Barakah site in Abu Dhabi, works are on time and the first unit may operate end 2016. Wikileaks has accused AREVA of not taking all necessary measures for the protection of its employees at the Bakouma mine. AREVA denies the charges and affirms that regulations and safety requirements are the same as for its French sites whatever the country. The initiative 'Nuclear for Climate' gathering pro-nuclear associations worldwide, intends to remind the international community that nuclear energy is an important tool to fight climate change. The French site for the disposal of low-level radioactive wastes is facing saturation in the very short term while the volume of such wastes is expected to soar in the next decades as the dismantling programmes will gain in importance. A new policy for the management of such wastes is needed. (A.C.)

  9. Witnessing the Future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elgaard Jensen, Torben

    2007-01-01

    and the problematic work life elsewhere. Finally, it notes that the manager's strategy enacts a timeworld characterised by dramatic epochal changes, which is radically different from the more stable and knowable time-world that is enacted in ordinary scientific discourses. Key words: actor-network theory, witnessing......Abstract: The paper explores the phenomenon of witnessing the future through a case study of how a Scandinavian new economy firm managed to persuade a number of business journalists that it was "the future". It describes the procedures and rhetorical strategies that the manager deployed to turn...... the journalists into witnesses. It compares the manager's strategy to other cases of effective witnessing in courtrooms and in science. It concludes that the manager's persuasiveness is derived from his ability to articulate a series of pointed contrasts between the attractive working life within the firm...

  10. Teaching World Religions without Teaching "World Religions"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locklin, Reid B.; Tiemeier, Tracy; Vento, Johann M.

    2012-01-01

    Tomoko Masuzawa and a number of other contemporary scholars have recently problematized the categories of "religion" and "world religions" and, in some cases, called for its abandonment altogether as a discipline of scholarly study. In this collaborative essay, we respond to this critique by highlighting three attempts to teach…

  11. Robot Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Anja; Grindsted Nielsen, Sally; Jochum, Elizabeth Ann

    Robots are increasingly used in health care settings, e.g., as homecare assistants and personal companions. One challenge for personal robots in the home is acceptance. We describe an innovative approach to influencing the acceptance of care robots using theatrical performance. Live performance...... is a useful testbed for developing and evaluating what makes robots expressive; it is also a useful platform for designing robot behaviors and dialogue that result in believable characters. Therefore theatre is a valuable testbed for studying human-robot interaction (HRI). We investigate how audiences...... perceive social robots interacting with humans in a future care scenario through a scripted performance. We discuss our methods and initial findings, and outline future work....

  12. Nuclear energy facing the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laue, H.J.

    1982-01-01

    In conjunction with the 25th anniversary of the establishment of the IAEA, the contribution that nuclear energy can make to future world energy requirements is discussed and nuclear power generation statistics examined with especial reference to data on capacity and outages. (U.K.)

  13. Preparing Learners for the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga DeJesus

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Book review of “Teaching in a Globally Connected World: Preparing Learners for the Future.” Edited by Ervin F. Sparapani and Pamela L. Ross McClain. Lanham, MD: Hamilton Books, 2016. ISBN: 978-0-7618-6814-9

  14. Future directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, R.J. Jr.

    2004-01-01

    Topics presented concerning the future developments in risk analysis are: safety goals, US severe accident policy, code developments, research programs, analyses and operation action, linking with the deterministic analyses. Principle consideration in risk is defined as protection of both general population, and nearby residents. The principal goal should be consistent with risk of other man-caused activities, the cost benefit after minimum safety levels are achieved, and proportional to benefits to be gained

  15. Future World of Illicit Nuclear Trade: Mitigating the Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-29

    David Albright and Corey Gay , “Taiwan: Nuclear Nightmare Averted,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 1998, vol. 54, issue 1, p. 54. 8...38 Figure 6: A photo of a model of the IR-1 centrifuge in Iran, showing four aluminum rotor tubes and three bellows. The top and bottom tubes ...are painted black, possibly intended to help control the temperatures along the rotor assembly. The small tubing wrapped around the outside of the

  16. Earthworm's immunity in the nanomaterial world: new room, future challenges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hayashi, Yuya; Engelmann, Péter

    2013-01-01

    of the immune responses to nanoparticles with references to other invertebrate species and vertebrate counterparts. We discuss the significant contribution of amoebocytes as nanoparticle scavengers and suggest a possibility of studying inter-cellular communications in coelomocytes. Implications from the leading...

  17. Publishing and the academic world passion, purpose and possible futures

    CERN Document Server

    Mertkan, Sefika

    2016-01-01

    Within the Academy, itself a changing and increasingly entrepreneurial entity, publishing is no longer an option; it is the universal currency that secures a position, tenure and promotion; it is key to academic life. Providing a panoramic picture of the changing publishing climate, "Academic Life and the Publishing Landscape "will empower scholars by enabling them to navigate this changing terrain more successfully. This book provides guidance from a range of contributors who use their own wide expertise in writing and publication to document the challenges faced by scholars at different career stages and in different locations. It covers a wide range of debates on publishing, spilt into the following three sections: Mapping the Publication Landscape, Writing for Publication Learning from Successful Voices, Further Challenges and Possibilities. With topics ranging from the process of preparing manuscripts for publication, including chapters on calculating journal rankings and understanding t...

  18. Generic ICT Skills Profiles: Future Skills for Tomorrow's World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    International Co-operation Europe Ltd. (ICEL), Brussels, Belgium.

    This document describes generic skills profiles relevant to key jobs in information and communications technology (ICT). The profiles cover the main job areas for which the ICT industry is experiencing skills shortages. These types of information are provided for 18 generic job profiles: job description (vision, role, lifestyle); examples of job…

  19. The Future Internet: A World of Secret Shares

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J. Buchanan

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The Public Key Infrastructure (PKI is crumbling, partially due to the lack of a strong understanding of how encryption actually works, but also due to weaknesses in its implementation. This paper outlines an Internet storage technique using secret sharing methods which could be used to overcome the problems inherent with PKI, while supporting new types of architectures incorporating such things as automated failover and break-glass data recovery. The paper outlines a novel architecture: SECRET, which supports a robust cloud-based infrastructure with in-built privacy and failover. In order to understand the performance overhead of SECRET, the paper outlines a range of experiments that investigate the overhead of this and other secret share methods.

  20. After globalization future security in a technology rich world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilmartin, T J

    2000-02-12

    Over the course of the year 2000, five one-day workshops were conducted by the Center for Global Security Research at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on threats that might come against the US and its allies in the 2015 to 2020 timeframe due to the global availability of advanced technology. These workshops focused on threats that are enabled by nuclear, missile, and space technology; military technology; information technology; bio technology; and geo systems technology. In December, an Integration Workshop and Senior Review before national leaders and experts were held. The participants and reviewers were invited from the DOE National Laboratories, the DOD Services, OSD, DTRA, and DARPA, the DOS, NASA, Congressional technical staff, the intelligence community, universities and university study centers, think tanks, consultants on national security issues, and private industry. For each workshop the process of analysis involved identification and prioritization of the participants' perceived most severe threat scenarios (worst nightmares), discussion of the technologies which enabled those threats, and ranking of the technologies' threat potentials. We were not concerned in this exercise with defining responses, although our assessment of each threat's severity included consideration of the ease or difficulty with which it might be countered. At the concluding Integration Workshop and Senior Panel Review, we brought the various workshops' participants together, added senior participant/reviewers with broad experience and responsibility, and discussed the workshop findings to determine what is most certain, and uncertain, and what might be needed to resolve our uncertainties. This document reports the consensus and important variations of both the reviewers and the participants. In all, 45 threats over a wide range of lethality and probability of occurrence were identified. Over 60 enabling technologies were also discussed. These are each described in greater detail in the following pages, after overarching considerations are discussed. Here we present the major conclusions of this project, which each include consideration of several threats and their enabling technologies.

  1. After Globalization Future Security in a Technology Rich World

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilmartin,T J

    2001-08-17

    Over the course of the year 2000, five workshops were conducted by the Center for Global Security Research at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on threats to international security in the 2015 to 2020 timeframe due to the global availability of advanced technology. These workshops focused on threats that are enabled by nuclear, missile, and space technology; military technology; information technology; bio technology; and geo systems technology. The participants included US national leaders and experts from the Department of Energy National Laboratories; the Department of Defense: Army, Navy, Air Force, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; the Department of State, NASA, Congressional technical staff, the intelligence community, universities and university study centers, think tanks, consultants on security issues, and private industry. For each workshop the process of analysis involved identification and prioritization of the participants' perceived most severe threat scenarios (worst nightmares), discussion of the technologies which enabled those threats, and ranking of the technologies' threat potentials. The threats ranged from local/regional to global, from intentional to unintended to natural, from merely economic to massively destructive, and from individual and group to state actions. We were not concerned in this exercise with defining responses to the threats, although our assessment of each threat's severity included consideration of the ease or difficulty with which it might be executed or countered. At the concluding review, we brought the various workshops' participants together, added senior participant/reviewers with broad experience and national responsibility, and discussed the workshop findings to determine what is most certain or uncertain, and what might be needed to resolve our uncertainties. This paper summarizes the consenses and important variations of both the reviewers and the participants.

  2. The future of risk management in an uncertain world

    OpenAIRE

    Coulson-Thomas, Colin

    2017-01-01

    Risk management approaches, practices and techniques need to change to reflect evolving risks and the inter-connected nature of contemporary organisations. Boards need to challenge and question them. The risk management community needs to adopt more pro-active and positive approaches that add more value and enable innovation and entrepreneurship. They need to contribute to solutions rather than just report problems, and focus on opportunities as well as challenges. A wider perspective and mor...

  3. The mysterious world of plutonium metallurgy: Past and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hecker, S.S.; Hammel, E.F.

    1998-01-01

    The first atomic bomb detonated at the Trinity Site in New Mexico on July 16, 1945, used plutonium, a man-made element discovered < 5 yr earlier. The story of how Manhattan Project scientists and engineers tackled the mysteries of this element and fabricated it into the first atomic bomb is one of the most fascinating in the history of metallurgy and materials. The authors are currently trying to generate renewed interest in plutonium metallurgy because of the challenge posed by President Clinton, i.e., to keep the nuclear stockpile of weapons safe and reliable without nuclear testing. The stockpile stewardship challenge requires either a lifetime extension of the plutonium components or a remanufacture--neither of which can be verified by testing. In turn, this requires that one achieve a better fundamental understanding of plutonium. Of special interest is the effect of self-irradiation on the properties and on the long-term stability of plutonium and its alloys. Additional challenges arise from long-term concerns about disposing of plutonium and dealing with its environmental legacy. It is imperative to interest the next generation of students in these plutonium challenges

  4. Small launchers (current and future projects in the world)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, W. G.

    1993-01-01

    Small satellites need launching services using small launchers capable of injecting 100 to 1000 kg into a polar orbit at an altitude of 1000 km. Operational small launchers are reviewed as well as developing and planned ones. Launcher characteristics, constraints, performance, and status are detailed. Few technical problems are encountered, as most launcher projects call for existing components and well known technologies. Most of the difficulties have come from launch site availability and from financial considerations.

  5. La grille, le World Wide Web du futur

    CERN Multimedia

    2001-01-01

    De nombreux chercheurs trouvent internet trop lent et limité. C'est pourquoi, ils travaillent sur un nouveau réseau : le Grid. Le Grid permettra de mieux partager les ressources informatiques en réseau (1 page).

  6. Future Technoscientific Education: Atheism and Ethics in a Globalizing World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Colin D.

    2011-01-01

    This article attempts to assess the claim that the unum necessarium in our time is the general dissemination of scientific knowledge because liberal civilization or the "good society" cannot be had in the presence of traditional religion and "metaphysics." The paper attempts to place this claim in the context of continuing globalization and…

  7. Prospecting the future with AI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julian Gonzalez

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available If we were able to foresee the future, we could be prepared to reduce the impact of bad situations as well as getting the most of profiting periods. Our world is a dynamic system that evolves as time goes by. The number of variables that can influence in future situations outnumbers our capacity of prediction at a first glance. This article will show an alternative way to foresee potential future scenarios based on human experts’ opinion, what can be considered as aknowledge modeling tool.

  8. Magnetic brane-worlds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrow, John D; Hervik, Sigbjorn

    2002-01-01

    We investigate brane-worlds with a pure magnetic field and a perfect fluid. We extend earlier work to brane-worlds and find new properties of the Bianchi type I brane-world. We find new asymptotic behaviours on approach to singularity and classify the critical points of the dynamical phase space. It is known that the Einstein equations for the magnetic Bianchi type I models are in general oscillatory and are believed to be chaotic, but in the brane-world model this chaotic behaviour does not seem to be possible

  9. World History Workshop (1983).

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-10-01

    history appeared tenuous. While the study of American history was viewed as necessary to "indoctrinate kids ," world history is unable to make such a...world" which is hard to avoid in world history, where one examines China in 1500, China in 1800, and so on. A pedagogical goal in the new course was to...the historian to make intelligent decisions about what information he is going to talk about. Viewing world history as a scenario also has a pedagogic

  10. Potential Futures for Information.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackermann, Mark R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Information is one of the most powerful tools available today. All advances in technology may be used, as David Sarnoff said, for the benefit or harm of society. Information can be used to shape the future by free people, or used to control people by less than benevolent governments, as has been demonstrated since the mid - 1930s, and with growing frequency over the past 50 years. What promised to once set people free and fuel an industrial revolution that might improve the standard of living over most of the world, has also been used to manipulate and enslave entire populations. The future of information is tied to the future of technologies that support the collection of data, processing those data into information and knowledge, and distribution. Technologies supporting the future of information must include technologies that help protect the integrity of data and information, and help to guarantee its discoverability and appropriate availability -- often to the whole of society. This Page Intentionally Left Blank

  11. World Wind: NASA's Virtual Globe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, P.

    2007-12-01

    Virtual globes have set the standard for information exchange. Once you've experienced the visually rich and highly compelling nature of data delivered via virtual globes with their highly engaging context of 3D, it's hard to go back to a flat 2D world. Just as the sawbones of not-too-long-ago have given way to sophisticated surgical operating theater, today's medium for information exchange is just beginning to leap from the staid chalkboards and remote libraries to fingertip navigable 3D worlds. How we harness this technology to serve a world inundated with information will describe the quality of our future. Our instincts for discovery and entertainment urge us on. There's so much we could know if the world's knowledge was presented to us in its natural context. Virtual globes are almost magical in their ability to reveal natural wonders. Anyone flying along a chain of volcanoes, a mid-ocean ridge or deep ocean trench, while simultaneously seeing the different depths to the history of earthquakes in those areas, will be delighted to sense Earth's dynamic nature in a way that would otherwise take several paragraphs of "boring" text. The sophisticated concepts related to global climate change would be far more comprehensible when experienced via a virtual globe. There is a large universe of public and private geospatial data sets that virtual globes can bring to light. The benefit derived from access to this data within virtual globes represents a significant return on investment for government, industry, the general public, and especially in the realm of education. Data access remains a key issue. Just as the highway infrastructure allows unimpeded access from point A to point B, an open standards-based infrastructure for data access allows virtual globes to exchange data in the most efficient manner possible. This data can be either free or proprietary. The Open Geospatial Consortium is providing the leadership necessary for this open standards-based data access

  12. Forecasting world natural gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Fattah, S. M.; Startzman, R. A.

    2000-01-01

    Using the multi-cyclic Hubert approach, a 53 country-specific gas supply model was developed which enables production forecasts for virtually all of the world's gas. Supply models for some organizations such as OPEC, non-OPEC and OECD were also developed and analyzed. Results of the modeling study indicate that the world's supply of natural gas will peak in 2014, followed by an annual decline at the rate of one per cent per year. North American gas production is reported to be currently at its peak with 29 Tcf/yr; Western Europe will reach its peak supply in 2002 with 12 Tcf. According to this forecast the main sources of natural gas supply in the future will be the countries of the former Soviet Union and the Middle East. Between them, they possess about 62 per cent of the world's ultimate recoverable natural gas (4,880 Tcf). It should be noted that these estimates do not include unconventional gas resulting from tight gas reservoirs, coalbed methane, gas shales and gas hydrates. These unconventional sources will undoubtedly play an important role in the gas supply in countries such as the United States and Canada. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 18 figs

  13. Fermentation. Third World Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Natalie; Hughes, Wyn

    This unit, developed by the Third World Science Project, is designed to add a multicultural element to existing science syllabi (for students aged 11-16) in the United Kingdom. The project seeks to develop an appreciation of the: boundless fascination of the natural world; knowledge, skills, and expertise possessed by men/women everywhere;…

  14. The Two World Histories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Ross E.

    2008-01-01

    In the arenas where the two world histories have taken shape, educators vigorously debate among themselves intellectual, pedagogical, and policy issues surrounding world history as a school subject. The people in each arena tend to share, despite internal disagreements, a common set of premises and assumptions for ordering the discussion of world…

  15. World Music Ensemble: Kulintang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beegle, Amy C.

    2012-01-01

    As instrumental world music ensembles such as steel pan, mariachi, gamelan and West African drums are becoming more the norm than the exception in North American school music programs, there are other world music ensembles just starting to gain popularity in particular parts of the United States. The kulintang ensemble, a drum and gong ensemble…

  16. World Society and Globalisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittmann, Veronika

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to illustrate discourses on globalisation and world society and to disclose the commonalities and differences of both scientific debates. In particular, it draws attention to theoretical concepts of globalisation and world society. This is considered fruitful for comprehending the complex mechanisms of…

  17. China in World Industrialization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    XU, Yi; van Leeuwen, Bas

    2016-01-01

    Combining the sectoral accounting method of the System of National Accounts (SNA) with new statistical materials from the United Nations, as well as historical research into various countries around the world, this paper arrives at an estimate of value added of Chinese and world industries between

  18. Scriptures of the World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, William, Ed.

    1998-01-01

    This theme issue of "Research and Creative Activity" features 10 articles on Indiana University faculty members whose work on various campuses continues to broaden and advance knowledge about "Scriptures of the World" and their meaning in human life. The articles are as follows: "Why Scriptures of the World Still Matter…

  19. World War II Homefront.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Rachel

    2002-01-01

    Presents an annotated bibliography that provides Web sites focusing on the U.S. homefront during World War II. Covers various topics such as the homefront, Japanese Americans, women during World War II, posters, and African Americans. Includes lesson plan sources and a list of additional resources. (CMK)

  20. Representing Large Virtual Worlds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kol, T.R.

    2018-01-01

    The ubiquity of large virtual worlds and their growing complexity in computer graphics require efficient representations. This means that we need smart solutions for the underlying storage of these complex environments, but also for their visualization. How the virtual world is best stored and how

  1. Reactor Antineutrinos Signal all over the world

    OpenAIRE

    Ricci, B.; Mantovani, F.; Baldoncini, M.; Esposito, J.; Ludhova, L.; Zavatarelli, S.

    2014-01-01

    We present an updated estimate of reactor antineutrino signal all over the world, with particular attention to the sites proposed for existing and future geo-neutrino experiment. In our calculation we take into account the most updated data on Thermal Power for each nuclear plant, on reactor antineutrino spectra and on three neutrino oscillation mechanism.

  2. Happy 20th Birthday, World Wide Web!

    CERN Multimedia

    2009-01-01

    On 13 March CERN celebrated the 20th anniversary of the World Wide Web. Check out the video interview with Web creator Tim Berners-Lee and find out more about the both the history and future of the Web. To celebrate CERN also launched a brand new website, CERNland, for kids.

  3. One-world chemistry and systems thinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matlin, Stephen A.; Mehta, Goverdhan; Hopf, Henning; Krief, Alain

    2016-05-01

    The practice and overarching mission of chemistry need a major overhaul in order to be fit for purpose in the twenty-first century and beyond. The concept of 'one-world' chemistry takes a systems approach that brings together many factors, including ethics and sustainability, that are critical to the future role of chemistry.

  4. Current status of the world's research reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodd, B.

    1999-01-01

    Data from the IAEA's Research Reactor Database (RRDB) provides information with respect to the status of the world's research reactors. Some summary data are given. Recent initiatives by the IAEA regarding communications and information flow with respect to research reactors are discussed. Future plans and perspectives are also introduced. (author)

  5. The future of Arctic benthos: Expansion, invasion, and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renaud, Paul E.; Sejr, Mikael K.; Bluhm, Bodil A.; Sirenko, Boris; Ellingsen, Ingrid H.

    2015-12-01

    One of the logical predictions for a future Arctic characterized by warmer waters and reduced sea-ice is that new taxa will expand or invade Arctic seafloor habitats. Specific predictions regarding where this will occur and which taxa are most likely to become established or excluded are lacking, however. We synthesize recent studies and conduct new analyses in the context of climate forecasts and a paleontological perspective to make concrete predictions as to relevant mechanisms, regions, and functional traits contributing to future biodiversity changes. Historically, a warmer Arctic is more readily invaded or transited by boreal taxa than it is during cold periods. Oceanography of an ice-free Arctic Ocean, combined with life-history traits of invading taxa and availability of suitable habitat, determine expansion success. It is difficult to generalize as to which taxonomic groups or locations are likely to experience expansion, however, since species-specific, and perhaps population-specific autecologies, will determine success or failure. Several examples of expansion into the Arctic have been noted, and along with the results from the relatively few Arctic biological time-series suggest inflow shelves (Barents and Chukchi Seas), as well as West Greenland and the western Kara Sea, are most likely locations for expansion. Apparent temperature thresholds were identified for characteristic Arctic and boreal benthic fauna suggesting strong potential for range constrictions of Arctic, and expansions of boreal, fauna in the near future. Increasing human activities in the region could speed introductions of boreal fauna and reduce the value of a planktonic dispersal stage. Finally, shelf regions are likely to experience a greater impact, and also one with greater potential consequences, than the deep Arctic basin. Future research strategies should focus on monitoring as well as compiling basic physiological and life-history information of Arctic and boreal taxa, and

  6. Raman Life Detection Instrument Development for Icy Worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Seamus; Allen, A'Lester; Gutierrez, Daniel; Quinn, Richard C.; Chen, Bin; Koehne, Jessica E.

    2017-01-01

    The objective of this project is to develop a compact, high sensitivity Raman sensor for detection of life signatures in a flow cell configuration to enable bio-exploration and life detection during future mission to our Solar Systems Icy Worlds. The specific project objectives are the following: 1) Develop a Raman spectroscopy liquid analysis sensor for biosignatures; 2) Demonstrate applicability towards a future Enceladus or other Icy Worlds missions; 3) Establish key parameters for integration with the ARC Sample Processor for Life on Icy Worlds (SPLIce); 4) Position ARC for a successful response to upcoming Enceladus or other Icy World mission instrument opportunities.

  7. Future development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zavitz, J.; Hetherington, C.

    1997-01-01

    Issues regarding future development by oil and gas companies in Canada's Arctic and the Beaufort Sea were discussed. It was suggested in the Berger report that Northern development should be under the control of the people whose lives and economy are being changed. Aboriginal people are now much more sophisticated politically, and have a better understanding of what is involved. Most of them would like the financial benefits from development, but the development would have to be on their terms. Most people involved with Arctic oil exploration feel that there is enough oil in the Arctic to warrant production. (Reserves in the Beaufort Sea are estimated at two billion barrels of good quality oil). If development were to continue, there exist two methods of transportation to move the oil to market. Gulf, Imperial Oil and Panarctic favour the use of pipelines, whereas Dome Petroleum Ltd. favours the use of ice-breaking tankers. In each case the favored option seems to depend upon the location of the company's leases, the capital and operating costs, and the potential environmental impacts. Undoubtedly, any future development will be guided by the scientific information and technical expertise of oil industry pioneers of the 1960s and the 1970s, and the wisdom gained from the experiences of the many participants whose views and insights are recorded in this book

  8. Future Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adli Tıp Uzmanları Derneği ATUD

    1996-07-01

    Full Text Available I.\t5- Marmara Tıp Günleri 16-19 Eylül 1996, The Marmara Oteli Taksim İstanbul. İletişim: Doç.Dr.Berrak Yeğen PK. 175 Kadıköy Tel: 0216 414 47 36 - 414 47 34 Fax: 0216 414 47 31- 325 72 17 - 418 33 27 II.\tEUROTOX’96 in collaboration with the Spanish Association of Toxicology 22-25 Eylüll996, ALICANTE; SPAIN, Secretariat-. Viajes Hispania, S.A. EUROTOX’96 Congress, Maisonnave, 11\t- 70, E-03003 Alicante (Spain. Tel: +34-C9 6-522-83-93; Fax: +34 (9 6-522-98-88 III.\tTürk Nöropsikiyatri Derneği Ruhsal Travma Günleri 10-\t11 Ekim 1996, Savoy Oteli Taksim İstanbul. İletişim:Doç.Dı.M.Raşit Tükel Türk Nöropsikiyatri Derneği, İ.Ü. İstanbul Tıp Fakültesi Psikiyatri Anabilim Dalı Fax: 0212 631 24 00 IV.\t1996 Annual Meeting: Construction Professional Relations in Contemporary Health Care 15-\t16 Ekim 1996, Royal Sonesta, Boston Massachusetts ASLME, 765 Common Wealth Avenue, 16th Floor, Boston, MA, 02215. Tel: (617 262-4990 Fax: (617 437- 7596 Email: aslme@bu.edu V.\tXXI International Congress of the International Academy of Pathology and 12th World Congress of Academic and Environmental Pathology 20-25 Ekim 1996, BUDAPEST, HUNGARY, Secretariat: XII International Congress of The International Academy of Pathology and 12th World Congress of Academic and Environmental Pathology, 2nd Dept, of Pathology Semmelweis Univ. of Medicine, Ü1İÖİ £t 93-, H 1091 Budapest, Hungary. Tel/Fax: +36-1-215-7591, +36-1-215-6921. VI.\tVII.THMTK, VII. Türkiye Hastane Mütehassısları Uluslararası Katdımlı Tıp Kongresi 26-29 Ekim 1996, Antalya İletişim: THMD Başkanı Dr.Cafer Yıldıran Talimhane, Lamartin Cad. 46/4, Eren Apt. 80090 Taksim İstanbul Tel: (0212 250 45 55 -‘238 09 85 VII.\tI. Ulusal Biyolojik Antropoloji Sempozyumu 30-31 Ekim 1996, Ankara Ankara Üniversitesi Dil ve Tarih-Coğrafya Fakültesi Farabi salonu İletişim: Prof.Dr.Erksin Güleç A.Ü. Dil ver Tarih-Coğrafya Fakültesi Fizik ve Paleoantropoloji B

  9. Extreme High-Temperature Events Over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM Low-Warming Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Donghuan; Zhou, Tianjun; Zou, Liwei; Zhang, Wenxia; Zhang, Lixia

    2018-02-01

    Extreme high-temperature events have large socioeconomic and human health impacts. East Asia (EA) is a populous region, and it is crucial to assess the changes in extreme high-temperature events in this region under different climate change scenarios. The Community Earth System Model low-warming experiment data were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in EA under 1.5°C and 2°C warming conditions above preindustrial levels. The results show that the magnitude of warming in EA is approximately 0.2°C higher than the global mean. Most populous subregions, including eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, will see more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting extreme temperature events under 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The 0.5°C lower warming will help avoid 35%-46% of the increases in extreme high-temperature events in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration in EA with maximal avoidance values (37%-49%) occurring in Mongolia. Thus, it is beneficial for EA to limit the warming target to 1.5°C rather than 2°C.

  10. Managing the world's forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, N; Rowe, R

    1992-06-01

    Forests play a vital role in balancing natural systems: the stabilization of global climate and the management of water and land. 30% of the earth's total land area is forested. 66% of the tropical moist forests are in Latin America and the remainder in Africa and Asia. 75% of tropical dry forests are in Africa. Temperate forests are primarily in developed countries. Deforestation and misuse of forests occurs primarily in developing countries at significant social, economic, and environmental costs. Losses have occurred in fuelwood, fodder, timber, forest products, biological diversity, habitats, genetic materials for food and medicine. The World Bank's evolving role in forestry is briefly described. Agreement has not been reached among people or nations about the most appropriate means to balance conservation and development goals. The challenge is to stabilize existing forests and increase forest planting. The causes of forest degradation must be understood. Direct causes include agricultural encroachment, cattle ranching, fuelwood gathering, commercial logging, and infrastructure development. These direct causes are driven by economic, social, and political forces: market and policy failures, population growth, and poverty. The market failures include: 1) the lack of clearly defined property rights on forest resources for now and the future, 2) the conflict between individual and societal needs, 3) the difficulty in placing a value on nonmarket environmental services and joint products, and 4) the separation between private and social costs. The solution is action at the local, national, and global levels. Countries must establish forest policy. The existing government incentives which promote deforestation must be changed. For example, concession policy and royalty systems must be corrected; explicit and implicit export subsidies on timber and forest products must be stopped. Private incentives must be established to promote planting of trees, practicing

  11. The World's Present And Future Resources Of Protein Available For Human Nourishment, And The Possibilities For Utilizing These Resources; Les ressources mondiales actuelles et futures en proteines disponibles pour l'alimentation de l'homme - Leurs possibilites d'utilisation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pion, R.; Fauconneau, G. [INRA, Centre National de Recherches Zootechniques, Jouy-en-Josas, Yvelines (France)

    1968-07-01

    Man must obtain from his food supply various essential and semi-essential amino acids, in combination with an adequate amount of non- differentiated nitrogen, necessary for satisfying his needs. These various essential amino acids are synthesized by land or aquatic plant organisms; the essential amino acids are for the most part taken up into the plant proteins, which are either consumed by man in their original state or transformed, with a rather low efficiency, into animal protein subsequently utilized by man. The protein resources available to man in those forms are now inadequate, and the increase in world population makes necessary both an increase in protein production and an improvement in the efficiency of protein utilization. A study of the various sources of nitrogenous food products and of their amino acid composition (the main factor in their quality) shows that there are a number of ways of increasing the resources available to man, both by the improvement of farming techniques and by the industrial-scale production of supplements. The principal methods of improving plant production are irrigation, use of fertilizers (especially nitrogenous ones) and genetic grain selection methods, with a view to obtaining better quality proteins from species now under cultivation and to utilizing plants of promising composition which are not yet being developed. The growing production and use of factory-produced supplements, particularly synthetic amino acids, should contribute to improved efficiency in the utilization of proteins of plant origin by monogastric species (man, pigs, poultry). Lastly, certain high-quality proteins (fish, milk) should be utilized directly by man on a larger scale. At the present stage of technology these proteins can be satisfactorily conserved. (author) [French] L'homme doit trouver dans son alimentation les differents acides amines indispensables et semi-indispensables, associes a une quantite suffisante d'azote indifferencie

  12. From cold power strategies to hot wars about raw materials? Game of chess of the world power between preventive war and futurable raw material politics in the age of the greenhouse; Von kalten Energiestrategien zu heissen Rohstoffkriegen? Schachspiel der Weltmaechte zwischen Praeventivkrieg und zukunftsfaehiger Rohstoffpolitik im Zeitalter des globalen Treibhauses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roithner, T. (comp.)

    2008-07-01

    The 24th international summer academy, held in Stadtschlaining (Burgenland, Austria) between 8th July and 13th July, 2007, is engaged with the reasons to the conflicts and military conflicts at the end of the fossil energy age. The following lectures are held: (a) From cold power strategies to hot wars about raw materials? (Thomas Roithner); (b) Inauguration of the 24th international summer academy 2007 (Gerald Mader); (c) A change of consciousness also changes unconsciously the being (Hans Lukits); (d) Oil in fire - Conflicts of resources as a fuel for global discord (Wolfgang Sachs); (e) Safety discourses on both sides of the Atlantic - in times o peak oil and climatic change (Elmar Altvater); (f) From energy security to the war of resources: the resource politics of China, Russia and India (Andreas Zumach); (g) Why is there no alternative to the retreat from Afghanistan? (Peter Strutynski); (h) Do ''Peak Oil'' and nuclear energy solve the climate problem? (Helga Kromp-Kolb, Wolfgang kromp); (i) Water - the material from that conflicts consist? (Juerg Staudenmann, Karin Scheurer); (j) US strategy for the regions of Middle East and Caucasus in the unipolar world order (Matin Baraki); (k) What are the influences of oil on the conflict with Iran? (Udo Steinbach); (l) Geopolicy and resources: The grasp of the USA at Africa (Werner Ruf); (m) New colonization of Africa: China, USA and Europe in the struggle for resources (Karin Kneissl); (n) Securing resources and energy politics in Latin America: US politics, EU politics or independent world politics (Peter Stania); (o) More scarcely becoming raw materials - a source for armament and war planning? (Luehr Henken); (p) Battle groups - intervening groups for securing resources (Gunther Hauser); (q) Organization of the globalization as fateful question - which future lies before us? (Franz-Josef Radermacher); (r) No peace without change of renewable resources (Hermann Scheer); (s) Peaceable, forced or

  13. Future Talks,

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Defeyt

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available La conservation des matériaux modernes et les difficultés qui la caractérisent étaient l’objet du colloque international Future Talks, organisé par Die Neue Sammlung, The International Design Museum, les 22 et 23 octobre 2009 à Munich. Conservateurs-restaurateurs spécialisés, représentants des  institutions muséales les plus prestigieuses d’Europe et d’outre-Atlantique ainsi que chercheurs en sciences appliquées y ont présenté leurs travaux et recherches. En matière de design, d’art moderne e...

  14. Hydrology for a Changing World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    To support critical decisions related to water quantity, quality, and hazard mitigation, surface water hydrologists and water resources engineers have historically invoked the assumption that hydrologic systems are stationary; variables such as discharge or solute fluxes were assumed to have a mean, a variance, and other statistical properties that did not change over time. Today, the drivers of non-stationarity such as urbanization, groundwater depletion, engineered land-drainage systems, application of nutrients at the land surface, new farming technologies, and changes in greenhouse gas forcing of the global atmosphere have perturbed hydrologic systems enough so that this assumption must be challenged. Understanding of the non-stationarity in hydrologic systems is important for at least two major reasons: (1) Society needs insights on the hydrologic conditions of the future as a basis for planning, operating, and regulating water resources in the future. Water resources engineers cannot depend solely on records of the past to design and operate in the future. However, simply substituting model projections for historic records, without evaluation of the ability of those models to produce realistic projections, is not acceptable. (2) Non-stationarity provides a framework to identify emerging water resource issues and evaluate our society's success in achieving its environmental goals. The study of hydrologic change is our greatest challenge. We must learn how best to blend our knowledge of the past with our projections of the future. In this non-stationary world, observing systems and networks become even more critically important and our models must be tested using historical records to ensure that they produce useful projections of our future. In the words of Ralph Keeling, "The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it, and this means tracking the changes decade after decade, and poring over the records." Walter Langbein knew the

  15. World energy resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clerici A.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available As energy is the main “fuel” for social and economic development and since energy-related activities have significant environmental impacts, it is important for decision-makers to have access to reliable and accurate data in an user-friendly format. The World Energy Council (WEC has for decades been a pioneer in the field of energy resources and every three years publishes its flagship report Survey of Energy Resources. A commented analysis in the light of latest data summarized in such a report, World Energy Resources (WER 2013, is presented together with the evolution of the world energy resources over the last twenty years.

  16. World energy resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clerici, A.; Alimonti, G.

    2015-08-01

    As energy is the main "fuel" for social and economic development and since energy-related activities have significant environmental impacts, it is important for decision-makers to have access to reliable and accurate data in an user-friendly format. The World Energy Council (WEC) has for decades been a pioneer in the field of energy resources and every three years publishes its flagship report Survey of Energy Resources. A commented analysis in the light of latest data summarized in such a report, World Energy Resources (WER) 2013, is presented together with the evolution of the world energy resources over the last twenty years.

  17. World energy insight 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    The World Energy Insight 2011 is the official publication of the World Energy Council. It includes interviews, articles and case studies from a distinguished panel of World Energy Council Officers, CEOs, government ministers, academics and opinion formers from all areas of the energy sector and provides perspectives from around the globe. Government, industry and NGO's offer both policy and technology perspectives. The insights within this publication add to the work that WEC is doing to provide the forum for energy leaders, along with the on-going WEC studies and programmes on Energy Policies, 2050 Energy Scenarios, Energy Resources & Technologies, Energy for Urban Innovation, Rules Of Energy Trade and Global Energy Access.

  18. The World of WarsRisky systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harste, Gorm

      The world of the future will not be one without wars. The many hopes we have about a future peace governed by a more or less confederal state will not make wars obsolete. Regular wars and irregular wars will continue and probably on different subjects than we are used to. The paper proposes...... that the form of war will be more about temporalities, i.e. fast interchanges or, rather, more risky protracted wars of attrition and exhaustion and less on tactical well defined territories. The West can neither dominate such wars nor establish one world that is ruled or even governed. The risk is that we have....... The "extreme 20th century" will have another history and another impact. Its extremes will be more extreme and its temporal bindings easier to observe. The much celebrated revolutions in military affairs will not dominate future war systems. Unipolarity is fading away. Kantian convergences may appear....

  19. Spice and the World

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yu Xin

    2017-01-01

    than an addiction. It was also believed that ingesting spices was a way to im ̄prove one’s health and that they could cure every ̄thing from gangrene and paralysis to constipation and lung disease. Then there’s sex. Spice has long been associated with eroticism, including recent examples like the pop-music sex kittens the Spice Girls and the Spice soft-porn cable TV station. In the Middle Ages—when noblemen’s fear of infertil ̄ity ran rampant—spices were widely believed to serve as aphrodisiacs. It was these very qualities, that led many medieval Christian leaders to de ̄nounce spices—ginger in particular—arguing that their corrupting influence undermined monks’ vows of celibacy, with one mystic even comparing them to the forbidden apple of Eden. Others claimed their overuse could lead to drying out, derange ̄ment, and even death. The most puritanical critics saw spice as nothing less than an affront to God, who had already met man’s basic needs by provi ̄ding local foods, a gift cooks were now tampering with by introducing foreign flavors. Moreover, spice served as a medieval perfume, with the most spicy, most expensive varieties favored among the social elite. And spice was also used in mummifi ̄cation and embalming techniques that continued in future centuries. For instance, the practice dates back to Ramses II, an Egyptian pharaoh who died in 1224 b. c.; an examination of his remains re ̄vealed peppercorns stuffed up his large, and crooked nose, a discovery which startled scien ̄tists. Despite efforts by the Dutch to maintain their monopoly over spice plantations and prevent propa ̄gation, products like cloves and nutmeg eventually spread to other regions of the world. This was largely due to Spanish and Portuguese smugglers—who reduced them to mere commodities and dimin ̄ished their intrigue and notoriety, not to mention their cost. By the mid-1600s, pepper in particu ̄lar had long since become available to the Europe ̄an masses

  20. The International Energy Agency's world energy outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Dell, S.

    1996-01-01

    The 1996 edition of the World Energy Outlook to 2010 was reviewed. An overview of the energy projections was provided based on assumptions about economic growth and energy prices, geological potential, technological developments, the availability of traditional fuels outside the OECD and the future preferences of energy users. Demand vs. price movements were modelled, based on 'capacity constraints' and 'energy saving ' scenarios. Three major conclusions derived from the projections were: (1) world primary energy demand will grow steadily as it has over the past two decades, (2) fossil fuels will account for 90 per cent of total primary energy demand in 2010, and (3) a structural shift in the shares of different regions in world energy demand is likely to occur, i.e., the OECD share will fall in favor of the share of the ROW (rest of the world). 4 tabs., 9 figs

  1. World Magnetic Model 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Magnetic Model is the standard model used by the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.K. Ministry of Defence, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)...

  2. World Magnetic Model 2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Magnetic Model is the standard model used by the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.K. Ministry of Defence, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)...

  3. World Trade Center

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2006-01-01

    Esilinastus katastroofifilm "World Trade Center" : stsenarist Andrea Berloff : režissöör Oliver Stone : kunstnik Jan Roelfs : osades Nicholas Cage, Michael Pena, Stephen Dorff jpt : Ameerika Ühendriigid 2006. Ka filmi prototüüpidest

  4. ELEVENm WORLD HEALTH ASSEMBLY

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    of malaria, followed by smallpox, tuberculosis, syphilis and yaws, permitting WHO ... the world, and the initiation of eradication programmes in certain communicable .... Guatemala, India, Iran, Italy, Liberia, Mexico, Tunisia, USSR,'. United Arab ...

  5. Tomorrow's solar world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leitch, Meg.

    1996-01-01

    The largest privately funded solar power installation in the world is at the Florida Walt Disney World. It is the Universe of Energy exhibit at the Experimental Prototype Community of the World. The Universe of Energy shows the development and exploitation of energy sources and how energy is used and includes a recreation of the primeval world from which coal and oil deposits were formed. Visitors travel through two giant theatres in electrically powered cars. Most of the ride system is powered by a solar cell array on the roof of the building. The array is composed of 2,200 modules each made up of 36 cells and can generate 70kW of DC power which is fed through an inverter to convert it to AC. (UK)

  6. World energy outlook 2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    The World Energy Outlook is the most complete and authoritative energy publication and has received several prestigious awards from government and industry in recognition of its analytical excellence. The new edition offers: - Analysis: Over 550 pages of detailed analysis with 150 graphs and tables. - Projections: Supply and demand projections to 2030 for oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear and electricity, plus projections of energy related CO 2 emissions. -World Alternative Policy Scenario:A detailed assessment of the impact of possible climate change policies and energy efficient technologies. -Russia: An in-depth study of the 'most important energy country'. - Energy and Development: An analysis of energy's role in overcoming world poverty. - Reserves: A detailed analysis of world oil and gas reserves and of the problems involved in measuring them

  7. Brazil World Cup Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MANSUR, R.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Overcoming the productivity challenge is the main benefit of the 2014 World Cup for Brazilian people. The sustainable development of our cultural tourism industry will catapult the new middle class growing up rate.

  8. World Glacier Inventory

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Glacier Inventory (WGI) contains information for over 130,000 glaciers. Inventory parameters include geographic location, area, length, orientation,...

  9. Virtual-World Naturalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Reynolds

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Sometimes a player will stray from the path described by a game, moving into new spaces, developing new possible modes of interaction, and often discovering the rougher edges of the game world, where physics models break down, textures become incongruous, and the pieces don’t quite fit together. Gameplay that seeks out these spaces and these phenomena, that searches for such clues to the underlying construction of the virtual environment, is a kind of virtual-world naturalism, at once a return to an investigative urge that has been subsumed to the exhaustive mapping and description of the real world and a form of resistance to the very idea of pre-defined paths of action, of externally imposed limits, in virtual worlds as well as in our own.

  10. The subnuclear world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nunez-Lagos, R.

    1996-01-01

    The subnuclear world studies the fundamental constituents of the matter, traditionally nominated fundamental particles and their interactions. The author studies the history and standard models of fundamental particles: Leptons, quarks, and gauge bosons. (Author)

  11. The world's biggest experiment

    CERN Multimedia

    Gregson, Liz

    2008-01-01

    According to CERN, our understanding of the Universe is about the change. Meet the Imperial alumni and staff who are involved in CERN's Large Hadron Collider, the world's biggest experiment. (3 pages)

  12. World of antimatter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adams, S.

    1998-01-01

    Every particle in nature has an antimatter partner in a curious world. when the two meet, they vanish in a flash of radiation. Physicists create antiparticles for their experiments, and can even build antimatter atoms. (author). 4 Figs

  13. World competitiveness and agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. van Zyl

    1997-07-01

    Full Text Available Against the background of a changing environment in which market factors and greater world trade and competitiveness are increasingly becoming the only criteria for success, a framework for the analysis of world competitiveness is initially developed. This is followed by a discussion on the growth of productivity in agriculture, as well as an exposition of the role of agricultural research. Thirdly, price factors and the terms of trade are discussed, followed by a summary of policy implications.

  14. Coal world market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    A brief analysis of major tendencies in the world market of coal is presented. It is pointed out that recent years, by and large, were favourable for the development of the world coal industry. Prices for coal (both for power-grade and coking one) in 1995 after many years of depressive state increased by nearly 20 % and reached a maximum of the last decade. International coal trading continues to grow and the tendency may persist in the mext two years

  15. Rethinking the World's energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Wilson da

    2012-01-01

    Can we really shift the world completely away from fossil fuels in the next 20 years? In June 2011 at the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, Canada, forty physicists from around the world came together for the Equinox Summit: 2030. They discussed how to power modern civilisation this century without warming the planet to catastrophic levels, by using science. Five key solutions, dubbed 'exemplar pathways' emerged; large-scale storage, enhanced geothermal, advanced nuclear, off-grid electricity and smart urbanization.

  16. 7th WACBE World Congress on Bioengineering 2015

    CERN Document Server

    Lim, Chwee

    2015-01-01

    This volume publishes the proceedings of the WACBE World Congress on Bioengineering 2015 (WACBE 2015), which was be held in Singapore, from 6 to 8 July 2015. The World Association for Chinese Biomedical Engineers (WACBE) organizes this World Congress biannually. Our past congresses have brought together many biomedical engineers from over the world to share their experiences and views on the future development of biomedical engineering. The 7th WACBE World Congress on Bioengineering 2015 in Singapore continued to offer such a networking platform for all biomedical engineers. Hosted by the Biomedical Engineering Society (Singapore) and the Department of Biomedical Engineering, National University of Singapore, the congress covered all related areas in bioengineering.

  17. Electric business in the world (the first)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takai, Mikio

    2009-01-01

    It consists of three chapters such as the energy and electricity in the world, the nuclear power generation in the world and each country. The first chapter includes the energy demand of each country in 2007 and for the future and estimation of electric power demand in the world, introduction of photovoltaic (PV) power generation, Emission Trading, and The Third Energy Package proposed by The European Commission in 2007. The second chapter states the conditions of nuclear power plants and construction plans in the world. The third chapter explains the nuclear power generation situation in US, England, France, German, Sweden, Korea, China, Russia and Eastern Europe. The consumption of energy in the world and each area, consumption of energy and increasing rate of each energy source, the change of electric power resources in the world, change of PV in each country, price of PV in EU under FIT system, the main regulations for emission trading in EU, and the nuclear power generation plants in the world on 31 December 2007 are illustrated. (S.Y.)

  18. Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N., comp. Bengston

    2012-01-01

    These papers, presented in a special session at the International Symposium on Society and Resource Management in June 2011, explore the transdisciplinary field of futures research and its application to long-range environmental analysis, planning, and policy. Futures research began in the post-World War II era and has emerged as a mature research field. Although the...

  19. The World Health Organization World Mental Health Survey Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Ronald C; Haro, Josep Maria; Heeringa, Steven G; Pennell, Beth-Ellen; Ustün, T Bedirhan

    2006-01-01

    To present an overview of the World Health Organization World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Initiative. The discussion draws on knowledge gleaned from the authors' participation as principals in WMH. WMH has carried out community epidemiological surveys in more than two dozen countries with more than 200,000 completed interviews. Additional surveys are in progress. Clinical reappraisal studies embedded in WMH surveys have been used to develop imputation rules to adjust prevalence estimates for within- and between-country variation in accuracy. WMH interviews include detailed information about sub-threshold manifestations to address the problem of rigid categorical diagnoses not applying equally to all countries. Investigations are now underway of targeted substantive issues. Despite inevitable limitations imposed by existing diagnostic systems and variable expertise in participating countries, WMH has produced an unprecedented amount of high-quality data on the general population cross-national epidemiology of mental disorders. WMH collaborators are in thoughtful and subtle investigations of cross-national variation in validity of diagnostic assessments and a wide range of important substantive topics. Recognizing that WMH is not definitive, finally, insights from this round of surveys are being used to carry out methodological studies aimed at improving the quality of future investigations.

  20. A World 2010: A Decline of Superpower Influence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-07-10

    mathematics o Environmental: terrestrial, oceanographics, atmospheric, space o Engineering: electronics, civil, mechanical, metallurgical o Life: biological ...while Yoneji Masuda (The Information Society As Postindustrial Society, Washington: World Future Society, 1981) and John Naisbitt ( Megatrends : Ten New