WorldWideScience

Sample records for future warmer world

  1. Hybridization in a warmer world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chunco, Amanda J

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is profoundly affecting the evolutionary trajectory of individual species and ecological communities, in part through the creation of novel species assemblages. How climate change will influence competitive interactions has been an active area of research. Far less attention, however, has been given to altered reproductive interactions. Yet, reproductive interactions between formerly isolated species are inevitable as populations shift geographically and temporally as a result of climate change, potentially resulting in introgression, speciation, or even extinction. The susceptibility of hybridization rates to anthropogenic disturbance was first recognized in the 1930s. To date, work on anthropogenically mediated hybridization has focused primarily on either physical habitat disturbance or species invasion. Here, I review recent literature on hybridization to identify how ecological responses to climate change will increase the likelihood of hybridization via the dissolution of species barriers maintained by habitat, time, or behavior. Using this literature, I identify several cases where novel hybrid zones have recently formed, likely as a result of changing climate. Future research should focus on identifying areas and taxonomic groups where reproductive species interactions are most likely to be influenced by climate change. Furthermore, a better understanding of the evolutionary consequences of climate-mediated secondary contact is urgently needed. Paradoxically, hybridization is both a major conservation concern and an important source of novel genetic and phenotypic variation. Hybridization may therefore both contribute to increasing rates of extinction and stimulate the creation of novel phenotypes that will speed adaptation to novel climates. Predicting which result will occur following secondary contact will be an important contribution to conservation for many species.

  2. Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baatsen, Michiel; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Van Delden, Aarnout J.; De Vries, Hylke

    2014-01-01

    Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their

  3. Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Wei; Elison Timm, Oliver; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T; LaPointe, Dennis A; Samuel, Michael D

    2015-12-01

    Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

  4. Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

  5. World Energy Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forbes, A.; Van der Linde, C.; Nicola, S.

    2009-03-15

    In the section World Energy Future of this magazine two articles, two interviews and one column are presented. The article 'A green example to the world' refers briefly to the second World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, which was held from 18-21 January, 2009. The second article, 'Green Utopia in the desert' attention is paid to the Abu Dhabi government-driven Masdar Initiative. The two interviews concern an interview with BP Alternative Energy ceo Vivienne Cox, and an interview with the founder and CEO of New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich. The column ('An efficient response') focuses on the impact of the economic crisis on energy policy.

  6. Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baatsen, Michiel; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Van Delden, Aarnout J.; de Vries, Hylke

    2015-08-01

    Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks.

  7. The Madden-Julian Oscillation and its Teleconnections in a Warmer World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloney, Eric; Wolding, Brandon; Henderson, Stephanie

    2017-04-01

    Two simulations of the Superparameterized Community Earth System Model (SP-CESM) are examined, one with pre-industrial (PI) levels of CO2 and one where CO2 levels have been quadrupled (4xCO2). While MJO convective variability increases considerably in the 4xCO2 simulation, the dynamical response to this convective variability decreases. Increased MJO convective variability is shown to be a robust response to the steepening vertical moisture gradient, consistent with the findings of previous studies. The decreased dynamical response to MJO convective variability is shown to be a consequence of increased static stability, which allows weaker variations in large-scale vertical velocity to produce sufficient adiabatic cooling to balance variations in MJO convective heating. This weakened dynamical response results in a considerable reduction of the MJO's ability to influence the extratropics, which is closely tied to the strength of its associated divergence. A linear baroclinic model is used to verify the impact of increased static stability on the extratropical circulation in a warmer climate. Results of this study suggest that, while MJO convective variability may increase in a warming climate, the MJO's role in bridging weather and climate in the extratropics may not.

  8. Tropical forest carbon balance in a warmer world: a critical review spanning microbial- to ecosystem-scale processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Tana E; Cavaleri, Molly A; Reed, Sasha C

    2012-11-01

    , heterotrophic versus autotrophic respiration, thermal acclimation versus substrate limitation of plant and microbial communities, below-ground C allocation, species composition (plant and microbial), and the hydraulic architecture of roots. Whether or not tropical forests will become a source or a sink of C in a warmer world remains highly uncertain. Given the importance of these ecosystems to the global C budget, resolving this uncertainty is a primary research priority.

  9. Tropical forest carbon balance in a warmer world: a critical review spanning microbial- to ecosystem-scale processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Tana E.; Cavaleri, Molly A.; Reed, Sasha C.

    2012-01-01

    , heterotrophic versus autotrophic respiration, thermal acclimation versus substrate limitation of plant and microbial communities, below-ground C allocation, species composition (plant and microbial), and the hydraulic architecture of roots. Whether or not tropical forests will become a source or a sink of C in a warmer world remains highly uncertain. Given the importance of these ecosystems to the global C budget, resolving this uncertainty is a primary research priority.

  10. The effect of the pathway to a two degrees warmer world on the regional temperature change of Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathrine Fox Maule

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate if the pathway to reach a 2 degree warmer world influences the regional climate in Europe at the time of 2 degrees of global warming above the pre-industrial level. We have investigated this using climate change data from ensembles of both Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models. We compare the change of regional temperature in Europe to the global temperature change for different emission scenarios, following the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, to see if the pathway has any influence. We find that there is a small but significant difference in the regional temperature change, but the effect is small compared to internal variability on the timescales involved in reaching +2 degrees for the investigated emission scenarios. From an adaptation point of view, reaching +2 degrees as slowly as possible will obviously allow for a longer time period to implement adaptation measures to mitigate the effect of climate change.

  11. Designing urban spaces and buildings to improve sustainability and quality of life in a warmer world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Claire; Levermore, Geoff [Built Environment Research Group, University of Manchester, PO Box 88, Sackville Street, Manchester M60 1QD (United Kingdom)

    2008-12-15

    It is in cities that the negative impacts of a warming climate will be felt most strongly. The summer time comfort and well-being of the urban population will become increasingly compromised under future scenarios for climate change and urbanisation. In contrast to rural areas, where night-time relief from high daytime temperatures occurs as heat is lost to the sky, the city environment stores and traps heat and offers little respite from high temperatures. This urban heat island effect is responsible for temperature differences of up to 7 C between cities and the country in the UK. We already have experience of the potential hazards of these higher temperatures. The majority of heat-related fatalities during the summer of 2003 were in urban areas. This means that the cooling of the urban environment is a high priority for urban planners and designers. Proven ways of doing this include altering the urban microclimate by modifying its heat absorption and emission, for example through urban greening, the use of high-reflectivity materials, and by increasing openness to allow cooling winds. Buildings themselves can also deliver improved comfort and higher levels of sustainability by taking advantage of exemplary facade, glazing and ventilation designs. In addition, changed behaviour by building occupants can help keep urban areas cool. The technology to reduce the future vulnerability of city dwellers to thermal discomfort is already largely in existence. But there is a need for complementary policy and planning commitments to manage its implementation, especially in existing buildings and urban areas. (author)

  12. Traits and habitat specialization influence in future range shifts of butterflies in a warmer climate

    OpenAIRE

    Gustafsson, Jennie Frida Linn

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is considered one of the greatest future threats against biodiversity. One predicted consequence of a global temperature increase is that biomes will move against the poles, which will force species to either adapt to an unsuitable habitat or follow their climatic range shift. A common way to assess the future geographical distribution of a species is to predict their future climatic range. However, this excludes factors that could interfere with the species ability to follow t...

  13. The Future of Virtual Worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bainbridge, William Sims; Lutters, Wayne; Rhoten, Diana; Lowood, Henry

    This book, like the May 2008 conference in World of Warcraft, ends with projections toward what the future might hold for virtual worlds. Every chapter thus far has included speculations about future directions, even while standing on data from the past. This last chapter, like the final session of the conference on which it is based, incorporates comments from dozens of participants into a stream of ideas. We have edited selected comments together with the panel's contributions. Our intention is to provide a portal from this book into a wider virtual community comprising researchers and residents in virtual worlds. The discussion surveys many recent lines of development, some of which have already been surveyed in scientific and historical literature, or by journalists (Au 2008; Castronova 2007; Guest 2007; Ludlow and Wallace 2007). Yet, many of the topics here have not received such attention. Considered as a set of socio-technical innovations, virtual worlds are not just about technical possibilities; they also inspired the participants to consider the economic bases for investing in those possibilities and the novel cultural, social, and artistic forms virtual worlds might offer.

  14. The future dynamic world model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karr, Thomas J.

    2014-10-01

    Defense and security forces exploit sensor data by means of a model of the world. They use a world model to geolocate sensor data, fuse it with other data, navigate platforms, recognize features and feature changes, etc. However, their need for situational awareness today exceeds the capabilities of their current world model for defense operations, despite the great advances of sensing technology in recent decades. I review emerging technologies that may enable a great improvement in the spatial and spectral coverage, the timeliness, and the functional insight of their world model.

  15. Quantifying the risks of winter damage on overwintering crops under future climates: Will low-temperature damage be more likely in warmer climates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vico, G.; Weih, M.

    2014-12-01

    Autumn-sown crops act as winter cover crop, reducing soil erosion and nutrient leaching, while potentially providing higher yields than spring varieties in many environments. Nevertheless, overwintering crops are exposed for longer periods to the vagaries of weather conditions. Adverse winter conditions, in particular, may negatively affect the final yield, by reducing crop survival or its vigor. The net effect of the projected shifts in climate is unclear. On the one hand, warmer temperatures may reduce the frequency of low temperatures, thereby reducing damage risk. On the other hand, warmer temperatures, by reducing plant acclimation level and the amount and duration of snow cover, may increase the likelihood of damage. Thus, warmer climates may paradoxically result in more extensive low temperature damage and reduced viability for overwintering plants. The net effect of a shift in climate is explored by means of a parsimonious probabilistic model, based on a coupled description of air temperature, snow cover, and crop tolerable temperature. Exploiting an extensive dataset of winter wheat responses to low temperature exposure, the risk of winter damage occurrence is quantified under conditions typical of northern temperate latitudes. The full spectrum of variations expected with climate change is explored, quantifying the joint effects of alterations in temperature averages and their variability as well as shifts in precipitation. The key features affecting winter wheat vulnerability to low temperature damage under future climates are singled out.

  16. Interglacial/glacial changes in coccolith-rich deposition in the SW Pacific Ocean: An analogue for a warmer world?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Bella; Carter, Lionel; Dunbar, Gavin; Bostock, Helen; Neil, Helen; Scott, George; Hayward, Bruce W.; Sabaa, Ashwaq

    2016-09-01

    Satellite observations of middle to high latitudes show that modern ocean warming is accompanied by increased frequency and poleward expansion of coccolithophore blooms. However, the outcomes of such events and their causal processes are unclear. In this study, marine sediment cores are used to investigate past coccolithophore production north and south of the Subtropical Front. Calcareous pelagites from subtropical waters off northernmost New Zealand (site P71) and from subantarctic waters on Campbell Plateau (Ocean Drilling Program [ODP] site 1120C) record marked changes in pelagite deposition. At both locations, foraminiferal-rich sediments dominate glacial periods whereas coccolith-rich sediments characterise specific interglacial periods. Sediment grain size has been used to determine relative abundances of coccoliths and foraminifers. Results show coccoliths prevailed around certain Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) transitions, at MIS 7b/a and MIS 2/1 at P71, and at MIS 6/5e at ODP 1120C. Palaeo-environmental proxies suggest that coccolithophore production and deposition at P71 reflect enhanced nutrient availability associated with intense winter mixing in the subtropical Tasman Sea. An increased inflow of that warm, micronutrient-bearing subtropical water in concert with upper ocean thermal stratification in late spring/summer, led to peak phytoplankton production. At ODP 1120C during MIS 6/5e, an increased inflow of subtropical water, warm sea surface temperatures and a thermally stratified upper ocean also favoured coccolithophore production. These palaeo-environmental reconstructions together with model simulations suggest that (i) future subtropical coccolithophore production at P71 is unlikely to reach abundances recorded during MIS 7b/a but (ii) future subantarctic production is likely to dominate sedimentation over Campbell Plateau as modern conditions trend towards those prevalent during MIS 5e.

  17. The Mediterranean Basin and Southern Europe in a warmer world: what can we learn from the past?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel eGuiot

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Since the late-nineteenth century, surface temperatures have non-uniformly increased worldwide. The repercussion of the global warming in drylands, such as in the Mediterranean, may become a main source of concern in a near future, as it is often accompanied by increased droughts, that will severely degrade water supply and quality. History shows that access to water resources has always presented a challenge for societies around the Mediterranean throughout the Holocene (roughly the last 10,000 years. Repeatedly, adverse climate shifts seem to have interacted with social, economic and political variables, exacerbating vulnerabilities in drier regions. We present a reconstruction of the Holocene climate in the Mediterranean Basin using an innovative method based on pollen data and vegetation modeling. The method consists in calculating the inputs of the vegetation model so that the outputs fit the pollen data, using a Bayesian framework. This model inversion is particularly suited to deal with increasing dissimilarities between past millennia and the last century, especially due to a direct effect of CO2 on vegetation. The comparison of fardistant past and last century shows that the intensity of century-scale precipitation fall, amplified by higher temperatures and then evapotranspiration, appears to be unmatched over the last 10,000 years and the comparison between west and east precipitation anomalies show a clear see-saw effect through all the Holocene, in particular during the dry episodes of Near and Middle East. As a consequence that Tthe recent climatic change seems thento have been unprecedented during the last 10,000 years in the Mediterranean Basin,.over the next few decades, Mediterranean societies will likely be more critically vulnerable to climate change, than at any dry period of the past. We show also that adverse climate shifts are often correlated with the decline or collapse of Mediterranean civiliszations, particularly in

  18. Terrestrial ecosystems under warmer and drier climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Future warmer and drier climates will likely affect many of the world's terrestrial ecosystems. These changes will fundamentally reshape terrestrial systems through their components and across organization levels. However, it is unclear to what extent terrestrial ecosystems would be resilient enough to stay put to increased temperature and water stress by only adjusting carbon fluxes and water balances? And to what extent it would reach the thresholds at which terrestrial ecosystems were forced to alter species compositions and ecosystem structures for adapting to newer climates? The energy balance of terrestrial ecosystems link thermal and water conditions to defines terrestrial carbon processes and feedbacks to climate, which will inevitably change under warmer and drier climates. Recent theoretical studies provide a new framework, suggesting that terrestrial ecosystems were capable of balancing costs of carbon gain and water transport to achieve optimums for functioning and distribution. Such a paradigm is critical for understanding the dynamics of future terrestrial ecosystems under climate changes, and facilitate modeling terrestrial ecosystems which needs generalized principles for formulating ecosystem behaviors. This study aims to review some recent studies that explore responses of terrestrial ecosystems to rather novel climate conditions, such as heat-induced droughts, intending to provide better comprehension of complex carbon-water interactions through plants to an ecosystem, and relevant factors that may alleviate or worsen already deteriorated climates such as elevated CO2 and soil conditions.

  19. The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Raymo, M.E.; Vacchi, M.; Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Harris, D.L.; Casella, E.; O'Leary, M.J.; Hearty, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128–116 ka) is among the most studied past periods in Earth's history. The climate at that time was warmer than today, primarily due to different orbital conditions, with smaller ice sheets and higher sea-level. Field evidence for MIS 5e sea-level was reported from

  20. The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Raymo, M.E.; Vacchi, M.; Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Harris, D.L.; Casella, E.; O'Leary, M.J.; Hearty, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128–116 ka) is among the most studied past periods in Earth's history. The climate at that time was warmer than today, primarily due to different orbital conditions, with smaller ice sheets and higher sea-level. Field evidence for MIS 5e sea-level was reported from tho

  1. How a future energy world could look?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ewert M.

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The future energy system will change significantly within the next years as a result of the following Mega Trends: de-carbonization, urbanization, fast technology development, individualization, glocalization (globalization and localization and changing demographics. Increasing fluctuating renewable production will change the role of non-renewable generation. Distributed energy from renewables and micro generation will change the direction of the energy flow in the electricity grids. Production will not follow demand but demand has to follow production. This future system is enabled by the fast technical development of information and communication technologies which will be present in the entire system. In this paper the results of a comprehensive analysis with different scenarios is summarized. Tools were used like the analysis of policy trends in the European countries, modelling of the European power grid, modelling of the European power markets and the analysis of technology developments with cost reduction potentials. With these tools the interaction of the main actors in the energy markets like conventional generation and renewable generation, grid transport, electricity storage including new storage options from E-Mobility, Power to Gas, Compressed Air Energy storage and demand side management were considered. The potential application of technologies and investments in new energy technologies were analyzed within existing frameworks and markets as well as new business models in new markets with different frameworks. In the paper the over all trend of this analysis is presented by describing a potential future energy world. This world represents only one of numerous options with comparable characteristics.

  2. How a future energy world could look?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewert, M.

    2012-10-01

    The future energy system will change significantly within the next years as a result of the following Mega Trends: de-carbonization, urbanization, fast technology development, individualization, glocalization (globalization and localization) and changing demographics. Increasing fluctuating renewable production will change the role of non-renewable generation. Distributed energy from renewables and micro generation will change the direction of the energy flow in the electricity grids. Production will not follow demand but demand has to follow production. This future system is enabled by the fast technical development of information and communication technologies which will be present in the entire system. In this paper the results of a comprehensive analysis with different scenarios is summarized. Tools were used like the analysis of policy trends in the European countries, modelling of the European power grid, modelling of the European power markets and the analysis of technology developments with cost reduction potentials. With these tools the interaction of the main actors in the energy markets like conventional generation and renewable generation, grid transport, electricity storage including new storage options from E-Mobility, Power to Gas, Compressed Air Energy storage and demand side management were considered. The potential application of technologies and investments in new energy technologies were analyzed within existing frameworks and markets as well as new business models in new markets with different frameworks. In the paper the over all trend of this analysis is presented by describing a potential future energy world. This world represents only one of numerous options with comparable characteristics.

  3. World energy: Building a sustainable future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schipper, L.; Meyers, S.

    1992-04-01

    As the 20th century draws to a close, both individual countries and the world community face challenging problems related to the supply and use energy. These include local and regional environmental impacts, the prospect of global climate and sea level change associated with the greenhouse effect, and threats to international relations in connection with oil supply or nuclear proliferation. For developing countries, the financial cost of providing energy to provide basic needs and fuel economic development pose an additional burden. To assess the magnitude of future problems and the potential effectiveness of response strategies, it is important to understand how and why energy use has changed in the post and where it is heading. This requires study of the activities for which energy is used, and of how people and technology interact to provide the energy services that are desired. The authors and their colleagues have analyzed trends in energy use by sector for most of the world`s major energy-consuming countries. The approach we use considers three key elements in each sector: the level of activity, structural change, and energy intensity, which expresses the amount of energy used for various activities. At a disaggregated level, energy intensity is indicative of energy efficiency. But other factors besides technical efficiency also shape intensity.

  4. World energy: Building a sustainable future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schipper, L.; Meyers, S.

    1992-04-01

    As the 20th century draws to a close, both individual countries and the world community face challenging problems related to the supply and use energy. These include local and regional environmental impacts, the prospect of global climate and sea level change associated with the greenhouse effect, and threats to international relations in connection with oil supply or nuclear proliferation. For developing countries, the financial cost of providing energy to provide basic needs and fuel economic development pose an additional burden. To assess the magnitude of future problems and the potential effectiveness of response strategies, it is important to understand how and why energy use has changed in the post and where it is heading. This requires study of the activities for which energy is used, and of how people and technology interact to provide the energy services that are desired. The authors and their colleagues have analyzed trends in energy use by sector for most of the world's major energy-consuming countries. The approach we use considers three key elements in each sector: the level of activity, structural change, and energy intensity, which expresses the amount of energy used for various activities. At a disaggregated level, energy intensity is indicative of energy efficiency. But other factors besides technical efficiency also shape intensity.

  5. Attribution of the response of the stream flows of the Brahmaputra river basin of a 1.5°C warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saiful Islam, Akm; Mamun Rashid, Md; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Mohammed, Khaled; Uddin Khan, Md Jamal

    2017-04-01

    An increase in global average temperature due to climate change is likely to intensify the global hydrological cycle, which in turn will impact regional water resources. Changes of the frequency and magnitude of the precipitation patterns over a river basin will change the intensity of floods and droughts. It's still an active field of research to determine the impact of climate change on extreme events though the attribution community has been using large climate model ensembles to characterize the low signal to noise problems. After the Paris agreement of 2015, limiting the increase of the global temperature below 1.5°C was emphasized. However, it is not clear the benefits of additional half a degree reduction of temperature below 2°C which needs comprehensive scientific analysis. In this context, a collaborative effort of 39 academic and research institutions around the global is on-going to generate large ensemble simulations of climate projections under a project entitled, 'the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI)'. This study has made an attempt to conduct ensemble simulations of a hydrological model over a transboundary river basin (Brahmaputra) for estimating the changes in future extremes and mean discharges of the river forced by the climate projections generated under the HAPPI project. The Brahmaputra is a transboundary river originating in China and ending in Bangladesh and it is the fourth largest river in the world in terms of average discharge of approximately 20,000 cms. It drains water from approximately 520,000 sq.km. area of China, India, Bhutan and Bangladesh. An estimated 66 million people depend on water from this river for their livelihood through subsistence agriculture and thus any change in the river's discharge due to climate change may have a negative impact on this large population. A decrease in discharge during the dry season when the basin requires water for irrigation systems translates into a

  6. A Brief History of the Future of World Society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Herkenrath

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Earlier versions of the articles in this issue were presented and discussed atthe international symposium on “The Future of World Society,” held in June 2004 at the University of Zurich.¹ The theme of the symposium implied two assumptions. One, there is in fact a world society, though still very much in formation. And two, as social scientists we are in a position to predict the future of that society with at least some degree of certainty. The ?rst of these assumptions will be addressed in Alberto Martinelli’s timely contribution, “From World System to World Society?” It is the second assumption which is of interest to us in this introduction. Are the social sciences really able to predict the future of world society?

  7. The future of learning in a virtual world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rubens, Wilfred

    2013-01-01

    Rubens, W. (2013, 12 maart). The future of learning in a virtual world. Presentatie over trends en ontwikkelingen die van invloed zijn op het onderwijs, verzorgd in het kader van de Honours Lectures Series van de Universiteit Leiden, Leiden, Nederland.

  8. Infant incubators and radiant warmers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, E F

    1983-10-01

    Incubators and radiant warmers are used to maintain the body temperature of newborn infants. This is best done so that the energy expended for metabolic heat production is minimized. The heat output of these devices is usually regulated by servocontrol to keep the skin temperature constant at a site on the abdomen where a thermistor probe is attached. In incubators, air temperature can also be controlled as an alternative to skin temperature servocontrol. Increased ambient humidity, heat shields and clothing have been used to decrease the evaporative or nonevaporative heat loss of infants in incubators under certain conditions. Double-walled incubators, by adding a second inner layer of Plexiglas, reduce radiant heat loss. They may also reduce total heat loss, but only if air temperature is controlled rather than skin temperature. The minimal oxygen consumption under a radiant warmer is the same or perhaps slightly higher than it is for the same infant in an incubator. Compared with incubators, the partition of body heat loss is quite different under radiant warmers. Radiant warmers increase convective and evaporative heat loss and insensible water loss but eliminate radiant heat loss or change it to net gain. A heat shield of thin polyethylene film can be used with a radiant warmer to reduce heat loss by convection and evaporation. The major advantage of the radiant warmer is the easy access it provides to critically-ill infants without disturbing the thermal environment. Its major disadvantage is the increase in insensible water loss produced by the radiant warmer. Most infants can be safely and adequately cared for in either incubator or radiant warmer bed.

  9. The future of learning in a virtual world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rubens, Wilfred

    2012-01-01

    Rubens, W. (2012, 25 mei). The future of learning in a virtual world. Presentatie over trends en ontwikkelingen die van invloed zijn op onderwijs en leren, verzorgd in het kader van de Honours Lectures Series van de Universiteit Leiden, Leiden, Nederland.

  10. World energy : the past and possible futures. 2. ed.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masri, M.; Prince, J.P.; Jazayeri, S.; Naini, A.; Walden, T. [Canadian Energy Research Inst., Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    2008-02-15

    This is the second edition of World Energy: The Past and Possible Futures. The first edition was published in March 2005. The basic structure of this publication has undergone few changes in comparison to the previous edition. The world energy situation and markets, however, have experienced many changes since March 2005. Fossil fuel prices, in general, have significantly increased. While the oil price benchmark spot West Texas Intermediate (WTI) averaged US$54.19 per barrel in March 2005, it averaged US$72.36 in August 2007 and climbed above US$80 in mid-September. Fossil fuel based electricity generation is becoming increasingly more costly and concerns over global warming and CO{sub 2} emissions are gaining further momentum in world public opinion. These have led to a resurrection of interest in relatively more economical and cleaner electricity generation sources such as wind and nuclear power. Energy has been and remains an essential element of human evolution and progress. To attain a sustainable future, we must not only achieve efficiency in using global resources but also ensure that the capacity of the biosphere to absorb residual products and waste from our activities is not breached. Many believe that this requires significant and immediate changes to how we produce and use energy. Without such change, the path we are on, in this view, could lead to social and economic conflict and irreversible environmental damage. This study brings together the work of many commentators on energy and the environment to provide a summary of the relevant past and a way to look at the possible future. We have drawn liberally from previous work within the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI); adapted the presentations of others, such as BP's Annual Review of Energy and the works of the International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Administration; and drawn from the World Energy Assessment, a joint review of the United Nations Development Programme

  11. Study of future world markets for agricultural aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobetz, F. W.; Assarabowski, R. J.

    1979-01-01

    The future world market for US-manufactured agricultural aircraft was studied and the technology needs for foreign markets were identified. Special emphasis was placed on the developing country market, but the developed countries and the communist group were also included in the forecasts. Aircraft needs were projected to the year 2000 by a method which accounted for field size, crop production, treated area, productivity, and attrition of the fleet. A special scenario involving a significant shift toward aerial fertilization was also considered. An operations analysis was conducted to compare the relative application costs of various existing and hypothetical future aircraft. A case study was made of Colombia as an example of a developing country in which aviation is emerging as an important industry.

  12. Future of Energy in Egypt and the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hani Nokraschy

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available If the whole world, which Egypt is a part of, continues business as usual in the field of electricitygeneration, namely, using the same regimes adopts today, burning fossil fuels and Uranium fission,both fuels will run out within sixty years at most and the world will definitely return to the Stone Age.Shall this be the end of the Egyptian people … the history makers?Generating energy is the next necessity to human life after water and food, since it is the majorstimulus of development. However, what is the aim of development if it is only momentary; thenfollowed by an endless abyss?Shall we wait till fossil and nuclear fuels run out? Jostling over the remaining fuel will certainly befierce and we will pay a high price for it, a matter that will subsequently lead to demolishing theingredients of development.Considering that oil is now dominating our way of life, it shall be wise to start immediately planning forthe post-oil age, provided that it is a sustainable plan set up to continue its validity as long as humanslive on this planet; this cannot be achieved except if we shift to renewable energies.Looking at Egypt and its available renewable energy sources, it becomes evident that the solarenergy, particularly in Upper Egypt, can give more than the present and future needs of the Egyptiansociety and even cover the demand of the whole world for electricity.

  13. The Future of Education into a Digital World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorica Jelev

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article investigate the role of communication in the digital age, between consumers and business and seeks to render highlighting changes within the Romanian society in the last 26 years, with the effects occurred in people's behavior, but also the changes of university education at the discipline I teach, Merchandising and International Marketing, with impact on the delivery of new information to the students of the Faculty of Economic Sciences, within Spiru Haret University. We live in an era where everything seems to change and evolve almost overnight. ”The world economic order went through a tectonic transformation, accompanied by, and in part caused by, groundbreaking advances in science and technology and the rise of globalization” . New industries start to develop, while others are on their last legs or already extinct in a world of advanced, emerging, and developing countries. As a result, lots of jobs from years past aren’t as relevant today as they once were, and many no longer exist. Therefore it’s easy to predict that eventually, today’s jobs will evolve into something completely different. And some will become obsolete. And it is those changes that lead to multiple consequences, affecting many other fields, one being education. We need a broad, flexible and motivating education that recognizes the different talents of all children and delivers excellence for everyone. Studying methods and curricula from the 20th century may no longer be relevant in the constantly evolving and changing world of the 21st century, in preparing you for your future job. And in order to maximize your chances of having a successful career in the field of your choice, you have to constantly adapt and evolve. Creative education involves a balance between teaching knowledge and skills, and encouraging innovation. New branches of industries will appear, and potential employers and employees will need to acquire new skills and abilities. And it is

  14. Agroecosystem productivity in a warmer and CO2 enriched atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernacchi, Carl; Köhler, Iris; Ort, Donald; Long, Steven; Clemente, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    A number of in-field manipulative experiments have been conducted that address the response of key ecosystem services of major agronomic species to rising CO2. Global warming, however, is inextricably linked to rising greenhouse gases in general, of which CO2 is the most dominant. Therefore, agroecosystem functioning in future conditions requires an understanding of plant responses to both rising CO2 and increased temperatures. Few in-field manipulative experiments have been conducted that supplement both heating and CO2 above background concentrations. Here, the results of six years of experimentation using a coupled Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) technology with variable output infrared heating arrays are reported. The manipulative experiment increased temperatures (+ 3.5˚ C) and CO2 (+ 200 μmol mol-1) above background levels for on two major agronomic crop species grown throughout the world, Zea mays (maize) and Glycine max (soybean). The first phase of this research addresses the response of plant physiological parameters to growth in elevated CO2 and warmer temperatures for maize and soybean grown in an open-air manipulative experiment. The results show that any increase in ecosystem productivity associated with rising CO2 is either similar or is offset by growth at higher temperatures, inconsistent with the perceived benefits of higher CO2 plus warmer temperatures on agroecosystem productivity. The second phase of this research addresses the opportunity to genetically modify soybean to allow for improved productivity under high CO2 and warmer temperatures by increasing a key photosynthetic carbon reduction cycle enzyme, SPBase. The results from this research demonstrates that manipulation of the photosynthetic pathway can lead to higher productivity in high CO2 and temperature relative to the wild-type control soybean. Overall, this research advances the understanding of the physiological responses of two major crops, and the impact on ecosystem services

  15. Future World Energy Constraints and the Direction for Solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lightfoot, H.D.

    2004-09-12

    This paper was originally written in response to the concern that rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere caused by burning of fossil fuels will ultimately contribute to global warming. Now we are beginning to see evidence of coming problems in the supply of fuels for transportation. This paper describes the benefits of adequate energy supply and the problems of future energy supply. Partial solutions are suggested for immediate application as well as longer term solutions to address both of these concerns. To evaluate the situation and solutions we must understand: (1) how much primary energy is currently used world-wide and might be needed in 2100, (2) how important energy is to the welfare of people, (3) the forms of energy sources and end uses and (4) where new sources may come from. The major portion of world primary energy demand is provided by fossil fuels. This portion dropped from 93% in 1970 to 85% in 1995, mainly because of the increased use of nuclear energy. How ever, since the mid-1990s fossil fuels have maintained their 85% share of world energy supply. The importance of the relationship between per capita energy consumption and per capita income for the world is discussed. The limits of conservation, energy efficiency and renewable energies are examined. The contribution of renewable energies is compared to 41 different views of world energy demand in 2100. Without new technology for large scale storage of intermittent electricity from wind and solar the contribution of renewable energies is not likely to grow significantly beyond the current level of 7-8%. The paper offers conclusions and partial solutions that we can work on immediately. Examination of the forms of energy supplied by the sun, which is powered by nuclear fusion, and the way in which nuclear fission currently supplies energy to the world sets the research framework for longer term solutions. This framework points towards two possible longer term complementary res earch projects which

  16. World Future Mapping and Scenarios for the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vareikis Egidijus

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this text is to describe the methods of future studies, its possibilities and limitations, as well as to make some predictions about the real picture of the development of the 21st century. However, the planning is still not very reliable, and far from a “road map” framework. Thus, future studies are still balancing between science and scientific/artistic fiction. The set of methods of future investigation permits one to compose a few or even up to dozens of medium term or long term scenarios of the world’s future. There are a few well-proven laws of social and economic development as well as some partially predictable phenomena in the area of environment, biology, human ethic, etc. No future planning is secure from unpredictable phenomena – “black swans” – and their impact, nor secure from “political decisions” that destroy natural developments in society. So no one scenario can pretend to be absolutely right. The most frequent future scenarios are based on the wish to implement a copy of an existing “happy nation”, to fight undesirable trends, and create some kind of “dream society” while stimulating positives and inhibiting negative trends. The final version of a scenario depends also upon the “human factors”, e.g. knowledge, stereotypes of thinking, as well as the wishes of those who are financing the project. Generally they are “happy end” projects. This makes scenarios rather useless. Only the independent experts that present more realistic and reliable scenarios can help in the planning of medium term and long term futures. Currently many scenarios foresee the so-called American or European way of development, which is in fact the continuation of the existing world order. There is a growing number of publications about the emergence of China (and Russia as a great power as well as possibilities of a New Caliphate, New Messiah or new Orwellian style regimes.

  17. The world's nuclear future - built on material success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ion, Sue

    2010-07-01

    In our energy hungry world of the twenty-first century, the future of electricity generation must meet the twin challenges of security of supply and reduced carbon emissions. The expectations for nuclear power programmes to play a part in delivering success on both counts, grows ever higher. The nuclear industry is poised on a renaissance likely to dwarf the heady days of the 1960s and early 1970s. Global supply chain and project management challenges abound, now just as then. The science and engineering of materials will be key to the successful deployment and operation of a new generation of reactor systems and their associated fuel cycles. Understanding and predicting materials performance will be key to achieving life extension of existing assets and underpinning waste disposal options, as well as giving confidence to the designers, their financial backers and governments across the globe, that the next generation of reactors will deliver their full potential.

  18. Futures Unlimited: Teaching About Worlds to Come. Bulletin 59.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitch, Robert M.; Svengalis, Cordell, M.

    A theoretical framework and suggestions for teaching about the future at the secondary level are presented. Seven chapters comprise the document. Chapter I examines the nature of and approach to futurism and explores ideas of European and American futurists. Chapter II presents a rationale, characteristics of futures education, outlines of courses…

  19. Future World of Illicit Nuclear Trade: Mitigating the Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-29

    or Otherwise Sensitive Information 5. Future Marketplace : Suppliers of the Future 56 Figure 11: List of Currently and Potentially...industrialized countries will be more independent, but the fact that the global marketplace is increasingly interconnected means that countries often...variety of approaches to obtain goods, varying from legal to illegal methods and from straightforward to highly deceptive schemes. The simplest

  20. Oil and the world economy: some possible futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumhof, Michael; Muir, Dirk

    2014-01-13

    This paper, using a six-region dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy, assesses the output and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies, the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, output growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.

  1. Designing Educational Systems: Creating Our Future in a Changing World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banathy, Bela H.

    1992-01-01

    Advocates a systems approach to designing educational systems in a changing world. The intellectual technology of systems design is outlined; and a design architecture is described that addresses definition of the new system, system specifications, key functions, organizational issues, and the systemic environment. Organizing perspectives for…

  2. The Role of Fusion in the Future World Energy Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, John

    1996-05-01

    The energy world, in which fusion energy must compete, has changed in recent years with the prospect of a 40-year supply of low-cost oil and gas. This cheap fuel represents a one-time opportunity for developing countries to raise their standards of living, and if historical trends continue, lower their rate of population growth. This brief opportunity for cheap fossil-fuel and the similar 40-year period to commercialize fusion are transients when viewed against the time scale of civilization. We need to develop and deploy the long-term energy sources, such as fusion (fission and 'renewables'), and in all cases improve energy efficiency before the fossil fuels rise in cost and a large fraction of a burgeoning world population is condemned to permanent poverty.

  3. Earthworm's immunity in the nanomaterial world: new room, future challenges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hayashi, Yuya; Engelmann, Péter

    2013-01-01

    Since the advent of the nanotechnology era, the environmental sink has been continuously receiving engineered nanomaterials as well as their derivatives. Our current understanding of the potential impact of nanomaterials on invertebrate immunity is limited to only a handful of initial studies...... researches in vertebrate models tell us that study of the nanoparticle recognition involved in cellular uptake as well as sub- and inter-cellular events may uncover further intriguing insights into earthworm’s immunity in the nanomaterial world....

  4. Brave New Worlds? The Once and Future Information Ethics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ess, Charles

    2010-01-01

    in both Western and Eastern countries, and correlative shifts from the communication technologies of literacy and print to a “secondary orality.” These consequences in turn imply that current and future information ethics should focus on developing a global but pluralistic virtue ethics - one that may......I highlight several aspects of current and future developments of the internet, in order to draw from these in turn specific consequences of particular significance for the ongoing development and expansion of information ethics. These consequences include changing conceptions of self and privacy...

  5. Brave New Worlds? The Once and Future Information Ethics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ess, Charles

    2010-01-01

    I highlight several aspects of current and future developments of the internet, in order to draw from these in turn specific consequences of particular significance for the ongoing development and expansion of information ethics. These consequences include changing conceptions of self and privacy...... in both Western and Eastern countries, and correlative shifts from the communication technologies of literacy and print to a “secondary orality.” These consequences in turn imply that current and future information ethics should focus on developing a global but pluralistic virtue ethics - one that may...

  6. Telehealth in the developing world: current status and future prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott RE

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Richard E Scott,1,2 Maurice Mars11Department of TeleHealth, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; 2NT Consulting - Global e-Health Inc., Calgary, AB, CanadaAbstract: In a setting of constant change and confusing terminology, telehealth continues to gain ground in both developed and developing countries within the overarching milieu of e-health. Evidence shows telehealth has been used in essentially all countries of the world, but is embedded in few. Uses and needs of telehealth vary between the developed and developing world; the latter struggles with both communicable diseases and noncommunicable diseases, and with very few resources. Common clinical applications include teleconsultation, telecardiology (transmission of ECGs, teleradiology, and teledermatology. Many telehealth projects exist throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia, and Africa, but there is little published evidence and only isolated examples of sustained programs, although several sustained humanitarian networks exist. Application of mobile solutions (m-health is on the rise in many developing countries. Telehealth is still not integrated into existing health care systems globally. Reasons vary: lack of proven large-scale operations, poor evidence base, inadequate implementation, lack of attention to the “soft side” of implementation (readiness, change management, and many others. For the developing world, reasons can be more pragmatic, including limited resources, unreliable power, poor connectivity, and high cost for the poverty stricken – those most in need. Telehealth is poised to improve health and health care in the developing world, driven by both altruistic and profit motives. But to have the desired effect, telehealth must address very specific and evidence-based health “needs” of each facility, region, or country; the shortage of health workers and specialist services; and the required skills upgrading and training

  7. Future of the Book? Challenge of the Digital World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pledger, Pat

    2010-01-01

    In the last ten years there has been much speculation about the role of e-books and e-book readers. This paper will look at the impact of e-book readers on publishing and reading, the types of e-book readers, their advantages and disadvantages. Some ideas for future e-books and e-book readers and their use in the library and classroom will be…

  8. World fertilizer nutrient reserves: a view to the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fixen, Paul E; Johnston, Adrian M

    2012-03-30

    The increasing need for food production in subtropical regions likely translates to a need for additional plant nutrients. As a consequence, knowledge of world fertilizer nutrient reserves is of particular relevance to sustainable agriculture in the subtropics. The stewardship responsibilities of agriculture include the wise use of the raw materials from which commercial fertilizers are produced. Development and implementation of fertilizer best management practices with focus on the 4Rs-right source, right rate, right time, right place-are timely not only for short-term economic and environmental reasons, but also for the wise stewardship of the non-renewable nutrient resources upon which food, feed, fiber, and fuel production depend.

  9. Winter ENSO teleconnections in a warmer climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herceg Bulic, Ivana [Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Andrija Mohorovicic Geophysical Institute, Department of Geophysics, Zagreb (Croatia); Brankovic, Cedo [Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ), Zagreb (Croatia); Kucharski, Fred [The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy)

    2012-04-15

    Changes in the winter atmospheric response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a warmer climate conditions are estimated from the two 20-member ensembles made by an atmospheric general circulation model of intermediate complexity. Warmer climate is simulated by a modification in the radiation parameterisation that corresponds to the doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, and SST forcing is represented by the same SST anomalies as in current climate (1855-2002) experiment superimposed on the climatological SST that was obtained from a complex atmosphere-ocean general circulation model forced with the doubled CO{sub 2}. SST anomalies in the Nino3.4 region, categorised into five classes, enabled a composite analysis of changes in the Northern Hemisphere tropical/extratropical teleconnections. The main features of the tropical-extratropical teleconnections are maintained in both experiments; for example, irrespective of the sign of SST anomalies, the amplitude of the atmospheric response is positively correlated with the intensity of ENSO event and the El Nino impact is stronger than that of La Nina of the same intensity. The strongest extratropical signal in the warmer climate, particularly significant for strong warm events, is found over the Pacific/North American region; however, this extratropical teleconnections is reduced in a warmer climate relative to the current climate. Over the North Atlantic/European region, a detectable signal linked to ENSO is found; this model response is significantly strengthened in the experiment with the doubled CO{sub 2} concentration. Such an atmospheric response in a warmer climate is found to be associated with changes in the mean state followed as well as in the jet waveguiding effect and stationary wave activity. (orig.)

  10. The future of protected areas in a crowded world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, D; Brechin, S R

    1994-01-01

    Population-environment interactions date back to Malthus and even Confucius who viewed humans as a threat to the planet. In contrast, pronatalists regard the human mind the ultimate resource and think that there is no limit to the number of people the earth can support. There are a few countries whose population is projected to be lower in 2025 than it was in 1990: Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Greece, Hungary, and Italy. The highest population growth rates (3% and above) are in Africa, the Gulf states, and some other Islamic countries. Rates of 1-3% are common everywhere outside Europe. Almost all of the wealthiest countries are growing at the rate of less than 1%, while the poorest countries, except for China and Sri Lanka, are growing at rates of 2% or more. The world's continuing population growth rides on the fact that in developing countries 40% of the population is under the age of 15. Relentless urbanization will eradicate 1.4 billion acres of arable land from 1980 to 2000. In 1950, 13 of the 25 most populous cities were in less developed countries; by 2000, 20 out of 25 will be. Migration, especially rural-urban migration, has an impact. "Economic refugees" from impoverished rural areas, "environmental refugees" from overworked lands or disaster-stricken areas, and political refugees from wars or persecution crowd around protected areas. Some examples of the population-protected area interactions include Kenya (the 3.56% growth rate threatens the world-renowned national parks), Tanzania (its 3.28% rate of growth causes encroachment into protected areas), Congo (natural rainforests are disturbed), Gabon (the rate of growth is 4.01%), and Zaire (an annual increment of over 1 million people). The threat to unexploited wildlife in the Ivory Coast, direct pressure on forested protected areas in Malaysia, deforestation in the Philippines, in-migration into the Pelen in Guatemala, the situation of the Shenandoah National Park in the United States, and pressures

  11. World oil market - the future will not resemble the past

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bohi, D.R.

    Developments suggest that, compared to the past, inventory demand will be less influenced by speculation and panic and prices will be less sensitive to uncertainties caused by interruptions in supply. Combined with the hypothesis that OPEC no longer is in a position to exploit supply crises to raise official prices to a new plateau, it may be argued that future price shocks will be more transitory and less dramatic than would be expected on the basis of experience. The author suggests that private and public policymakers would do well to ignore Santayana's dictum that those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. Too great a devotion to the lessons of the 1970s as far as oil is concerned will prepare us for a skirmish on a battlefield that no longer exists.

  12. CO2 studies remain key to understanding a future world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becklin, Katie M; Walker, S Michael; Way, Danielle A; Ward, Joy K

    2017-04-01

    Contents 34 I. 34 II. 36 III. 37 IV. 37 V. 38 38 References 38 SUMMARY: Characterizing plant responses to past, present and future changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2 ]) is critical for understanding and predicting the consequences of global change over evolutionary and ecological timescales. Previous CO2 studies have provided great insights into the effects of rising [CO2 ] on leaf-level gas exchange, carbohydrate dynamics and plant growth. However, scaling CO2 effects across biological levels, especially in field settings, has proved challenging. Moreover, many questions remain about the fundamental molecular mechanisms driving plant responses to [CO2 ] and other global change factors. Here we discuss three examples of topics in which significant questions in CO2 research remain unresolved: (1) mechanisms of CO2 effects on plant developmental transitions; (2) implications of rising [CO2 ] for integrated plant-water dynamics and drought tolerance; and (3) CO2 effects on symbiotic interactions and eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Addressing these and other key questions in CO2 research will require collaborations across scientific disciplines and new approaches that link molecular mechanisms to complex physiological and ecological interactions across spatiotemporal scales.

  13. The future of nuclear power: A world-wide perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aktar, Ismail

    This study analyzes the future of commercial nuclear electric generation worldwide using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) concept. The Tobit panel data estimation technique is applied to analyze the data between 1980 and 1998 for 105 countries. EKC assumes that low-income countries increase their nuclear reliance in total electric production whereas high-income countries decrease their nuclear reliance. Hence, we expect that high-income countries should shut down existing nuclear reactors and/or not build any new ones. We encounter two reasons for shutdowns: economic or political/environmental concerns. To distinguish these two effects, reasons for shut down are also investigated by using the Hazard Model technique. Hence, the load factor of a reactor is used as an approximation for economic reason to shut down the reactor. If a shut downed reactor had high load factor, this could be attributable to political/environmental concern or else economic concern. The only countries with nuclear power are considered in this model. The two data sets are created. In the first data set, the single entry for each reactor is created as of 1998 whereas in the second data set, the multiple entries are created for each reactor beginning from 1980 to 1998. The dependent variable takes 1 if operational or zero if shut downed. The empirical findings provide strong evidence for EKC relationship for commercial nuclear electric generation. Furthermore, higher natural resources suggest alternative electric generation methods rather than nuclear power. Economic index as an institutional variable suggests higher the economic freedom, lower the nuclear electric generation as expected. This model does not support the idea to cut the carbon dioxide emission via increasing nuclear share. The Hazard Model findings suggest that higher the load factor is, less likely the reactor will shut down. However, if it is still permanently closed downed, then this could be attributable to political

  14. Climate mechanism for stronger typhoons in a warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Nam-Young; Elsner, James B.; Shin, Dong-hyun

    2016-04-01

    Violent typhoons continue to have catastrophic impacts on economies and welfare but how they are responding to global warming has yet to be fully understood. Here we use an empirical framework to explain physically why observations support a tight connection between increasing ocean warmth and the increasing intensity of super typhoons in the western North Pacific. We show that the energy needed for deep convection is on the rise with greater heat and moisture in the lower tropical troposphere but that this energy remains untapped when air pressure is high. Accordingly, tropical cyclone formation is becoming less common but those that do form are likely to reach extreme intensities from the discharge of stored energy. These thermodynamic changes to the environment most significantly influence the upper portion of extreme typhoon intensities indicating that super typhoons are likely to be stronger at the expense of overall tropical cyclone occurrences in the western North Pacific.

  15. FuturICT - A Knowledge Accelerator to Explore and Manage Our Future in a Strongly Connected World

    CERN Document Server

    Helbing, Dirk

    2011-01-01

    We have built particle accelerators to understand the forces that make up our physical world. But we still don't understand the principles underlying our strongly connected, techno-socio-economic systems. To fill the knowledge gaps and keep up with the fast pace at which our world is changing, a Knowledge Accelerator must be urgently created. This 21st century challenge will be addressed by the FuturICT Flagship project. We envision that, after the age of physical, biological and technological innovations, Europe can lead the next era - a wave of social and socio-inspired innovations.

  16. Influence of the World Futures Markets of Corn upon the Prices in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roslyakov Artem A.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article lies in the study of interrelation between the world futures markets of corn and physical market of corn in Ukraine. Analysing, systemising and generalising information about the world market of corn, the article draws conclusions on a high level of integration of Ukraine into the pricing system in the world markets of the agrarian products. In the result of the study the article reveals a high level of correlation between the prices in the Ukrainian market of corn and the prices in the world reference futures markets of corn. The article identifies a causal relationship between the markets, which testifies to a necessity of taking into account development of the pricing situation in these markets for precise forecasting. Prospects of further studies in this direction could be studies of the basis between physical and futures markets and influence of state regulation of the grain market in Ukraine upon its degree of correlation with the world reference markets.

  17. Future Critical World Issues in Education: A Provisional Report of Findings. An Occasional Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coombs, Philip H.

    A review is presented of findings emerging from the International Council for Educational Development assessment of the world educational crisis. The assessment was made of education in both developed and developing countries and was geared toward finding the future status of education in the 1980s and the 1990s. An analysis is made of basic…

  18. Scenarios for the Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in an Uncertain World

    Science.gov (United States)

    On November 15 and 16 of 2010, EPA hosted a workshop: The Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in An Uncertain World in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. This workshop was an “outside-of-the-box” thinking exercise, where a small group of EPA staff and managers brainstormed o...

  19. Scenarios for the Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in an Uncertain World

    Science.gov (United States)

    On November 15 and 16 of 2010, EPA hosted a workshop: The Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in An Uncertain World in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. This workshop was an “outside-of-the-box” thinking exercise, where a small group of EPA staff and managers brainstormed o...

  20. The Future of the Automobile in an Oil-Short World. Worldwatch Paper 32.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Lester R.; And Others

    Possible future roles and designs of cars are examined in light of depletion of the earth's oil reserves. A major problem with regard to the rapidly changing world oil outlook is that cars will be competing with more essential claiments for scarce oil supplies including food production, industrial power, home heating, and running trucks and…

  1. Past, Present and Future: GATT, Free Trade Areas and... the World Trade Organization?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalo Bernardos

    1995-07-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this article are, on the one hand, to carry out a reconsideration of the workings of the commercial system since the Bretton Woods agreements and, on the other hand, to make some reflections regarding the function that the World Trade Organizationmust carry out in the future in a world divided, probably just like now, in regional areas of free trade. In order to achieve these aims the following are specified: the bases on which the liberalization of trade has been founded after the Second World War, the causes whichprovoked the wave of protectionism in the Eighties, the reasons which have brought about the division of the world into trading blocks as well as the need for an organization which encourages inter-regional trade and reduces the commercial wars between these blocks.

  2. Climate change and river temperature sensitivity to warmer nighttime vs. warmer daytime air temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diabat, M.; Haggerty, R.; Wondzell, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    We investigated the July river temperature response to atmospheric warming over the diurnal cycle in a 36 km reach of the upper Middle Fork John Day River of Oregon, USA. The physical model Heat Source was calibrated and used to run 3 different cases of increased air temperature during July: 1) uniform increase over the whole day ("delta method"), 2) warmer daytime, and 3) warmer nighttime. All 3 cases had the same mean daily air temperatures - a 4 °C increase relative to 2002. Results show that the timing of air temperature increases has a significant effect on the magnitude, timing and duration of changes in water temperatures relative to current conditions. In all cases, river temperatures in the lower reach increased by at least 1.1 °C . For the delta case, water temperature increases never exceeded 2.3 °C. In contrast, under the warmer daytime case, water temperature increases exceeded 2.3 °C for 6.6 hours/day on average, with the largest increases occurring during mid-day. In the warmer night case the river temperature increases exceeded 2.3 °C for 4.3 hours/day on average with the largest increases occurring around midnight. In addition, an average increase of 4 °C in air temperature under the delta case increased the water temperature by an average of 1.9 °C uniformly during daytime and nighttime. Still, an average increase of 4 °C in air temperature under the warmer daytime case increased water temperature by an average of at least 1.6 °C during the daytime and by an average of up to 2.5 °C during the nighttime, while an average increase of 4 °C in air temperature under the warmer nighttime case increased the water temperature by an average of at least 1.4 °C during the nighttime and by an average of up to 2.4 °C during the daytime. The spatial response of temperature was different for each case. The lower 13 rkm warmed by at least 1.1 °C with the delta case, while only the lower 6 rkm warmed by at least 1.1 °C with the warmer daytime case

  3. Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alonso, David; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970-2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a

  4. Chaos or ReOrder? The Future of Hegemony in a World-System in Upheaval

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joachim Karl Rennstich

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Observing the latest trends of a rise in interest in the development of power distribution in a world-system created and dominated by states but increasingly challenged as such, this paper takes a deeper look at the historical evolution of this system, its current transformation, and likely future development. After a brief discussion of prevalent concepts of world(-system development and its socio-political control, this work offers an evolutionary perspective to place current changes of power and its distribution in the dynamic long-term development of global system formation. It then presents alternative visions of the future development of political and economic hegemony. It concludes that a further rise in instability of global political power distribution accompanied by a likely challenge to existing distributional patterns has a high probability of occurrence.

  5. Hope in Africa?: social representations of world history and the future in six African countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabecinhas, Rosa; Liu, James H; Licata, Laurent; Klein, Olivier; Mendes, Júlio; Feijó, João; Niyubahwe, Aline

    2011-10-01

    Data on social representations of world history have been collected everywhere in the world except sub-Saharan Africa. Two studies using open-ended data involving university students from six African countries fill this gap. In Study 1, nominations from Cape Verde and Mozambique for the most important events in world history in the past 1000 years were dominated by war and politics, recency effects, and Western-centrism tempered by African sociocentrism on colonization and independence. The first three findings replicated previous research conducted in other parts of the world, but the last pattern contrasted sharply with European data. Study 2 employed a novel method asking participants how they would begin the narration of world history, and then to describe a major transition to the present. Participants most frequently wrote about the evolution of humanity out of Africa, followed by war and then colonization as a beginning, and then replicated previous findings with war, colonization, and technology as major transitions to the present. Finally, when asked about how they foresaw the future, many participants expressed hope for peace and cooperation, especially those facing more risk of collective violence (Burundi and Congo). A colonial/liberation narrative was more predominant in the data from former Portuguese colonies (Angola, Cape Verde, and Guinea-Bissau) than from former Belgian colonies (Burundi and Congo).

  6. Design and implementation of a low-cost classroom response system for a future classroom in the developing world

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    Economic considerations and lack of adequate infrastructure impose unique design constraints on future classrooms of the developing world. Thus, future classrooms in underprivileged nations may differ significantly from their counterparts in the developed world. Classroom response systems (CRS) are an emerging technology for the future classroom. CRS are wireless, hand-held devices that help students provide immediate feedback to questions posed by a teacher. In their present form, due to the...

  7. Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the

  8. The Impact of Future World Events on Iranians’ Social Health: A Qualitative Futurology

    Science.gov (United States)

    DAMARI, Behzad; HAJIAN, Maryam; MINAEE, Farima; RIAZI-ISFAHANI, Sahand

    2016-01-01

    Background: Social health is a dimension of health affected and interacts with other dimensions. Considering the rate of world changes, foresighting the influence of future events and possible trends on social health could bring about advantageous information for social policy makers. Methods: This is a qualitative study of futurology with cross impact analysis approach. After studying possible trends and events in future, they were categorized in four domains including population, resources, climate changes, and globalization and 12 groups of events; and they were used to design a questionnaire. It was given to experts and their opinions were collected through depth interviews between May 2013 and Sep 2013. Results: Analysis of experts’ opinions reveals that future trends in four main potential domains may have some positive and more negative impacts on Iranians’ social health. Conclusion: The global “resource challenge” is the most important incoming event, considering to the four domains of global events and its final and potential effects will be the increase of inequalities leading to social threat. Since inequalities are considered the most important risk factor of health in the societies, the solution for dispel the impact of world trends on Iranians’ social health is managing the crisis of inequalities which is started with fore sighting and adopting preventive strategies in all four domains. PMID:27648424

  9. The Impact of Future World Events on Iranians' Social Health: A Qualitative Futurology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damari, Behzad; Hajian, Maryam; Minaee, Farima; Riazi-Isfahani, Sahand

    2016-06-01

    Social health is a dimension of health affected and interacts with other dimensions. Considering the rate of world changes, foresighting the influence of future events and possible trends on social health could bring about advantageous information for social policy makers. This is a qualitative study of futurology with cross impact analysis approach. After studying possible trends and events in future, they were categorized in four domains including population, resources, climate changes, and globalization and 12 groups of events; and they were used to design a questionnaire. It was given to experts and their opinions were collected through depth interviews between May 2013 and Sep 2013. Analysis of experts' opinions reveals that future trends in four main potential domains may have some positive and more negative impacts on Iranians' social health. The global "resource challenge" is the most important incoming event, considering to the four domains of global events and its final and potential effects will be the increase of inequalities leading to social threat. Since inequalities are considered the most important risk factor of health in the societies, the solution for dispel the impact of world trends on Iranians' social health is managing the crisis of inequalities which is started with fore sighting and adopting preventive strategies in all four domains.

  10. Preserving the world second largest hypersaline lake under future irrigation and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shadkam, Somayeh; Ludwig, Fulco; van Vliet, Michelle T H; Pastor, Amandine; Kabat, Pavel

    2016-07-15

    Iran Urmia Lake, the world second largest hypersaline lake, has been largely desiccated over the last two decades resulting in socio-environmental consequences similar or even larger than the Aral Sea disaster. To rescue the lake a new water management plan has been proposed, a rapid 40% decline in irrigation water use replacing a former plan which intended to develop reservoirs and irrigation. However, none of these water management plans, which have large socio-economic impacts, have been assessed under future changes in climate and water availability. By adapting a method of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) for hypersaline lakes, we estimated annually 3.7·10(9)m(3) water is needed to preserve Urmia Lake. Then, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was forced with bias-corrected climate model outputs for both the lowest (RCP2.6) and highest (RCP8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios to estimate future water availability and impacts of water management strategies. Results showed a 10% decline in future water availability in the basin under RCP2.6 and 27% under RCP8.5. Our results showed that if future climate change is highly limited (RCP2.6) inflow can be just enough to meet the EFRs by implementing the reduction irrigation plan. However, under more rapid climate change scenario (RCP8.5) reducing irrigation water use will not be enough to save the lake and more drastic measures are needed. Our results showed that future water management plans are not robust under climate change in this region. Therefore, an integrated approach of future land-water use planning and climate change adaptation is therefore needed to improve future water security and to reduce the desiccating of this hypersaline lake.

  11. Preserving the World Second Largest Hypersaline Lake under Future Irrigation and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shadkam, Somayeh; Ludwig, Fulco; van Vliet, Michelle; Pastor, Amandine; Kabat, Pavel

    2016-04-01

    Urmia Lake, the world second largest hypersaline lake, has been largely desiccated over the last two decades resulting in socio-environmental consequences similar or even larger than the Aral Sea disaster. To rescue the lake a new water management plan has been proposed, a rapid 40% decline in irrigation water use replacing a former plan which intended to develop reservoirs and irrigation. However, none of these water management plans, which have large socio-economic impacts, have been assessed under future changes in climate and water availability. By adapting a method of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) for hypersaline lakes, we estimated annually 3.9•109 m3 water is needed to preserve Urmia Lake. Then, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was forced with bias-corrected climate model outputs for both the lowest (RCP2.6) and highest (RCP8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios to estimate future water availability and impacts of water management strategies. Results showed a 10% decline in future water availability in the basin under RCP2.6 and 27% under RCP8.5. Our results showed that if future climate change is highly limited (RCP2.6) inflow can be just enough to meet the EFRs by implementing the reduction irrigation plan. However, under more rapid climate change scenario (RCP8.5) reducing irrigation water use will not be enough to save the lake and more drastic measures are needed. Our results showed that future water management plans are not robust under climate change in this region. Therefore, an integrated approach of future land-water use planning and climate change adaptation is therefore needed to improve future water security and to reduce the desiccating of this hypersaline lake.

  12. UNESCO's Astronomy and World Heritage Initiative: Progress to Date and Future Priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggles, Clive

    2013-01-01

    UNESCO’s thematic initiative on Astronomy and World Heritage was created in 2005 “to establish a link between science and culture on the basis of research aimed at acknowledging the cultural and scientific values of properties connected with astronomy”. Since 2008, when a formal Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed between the IAU and UNESCO to work together to advance the Initiative, the IAU, through its Working Group on Astronomy and World Heritage, has been working to help identify, safeguard and promote the world’s most valuable cultural properties connected with astronomy. The Working Group’s first major deliverable was the Thematic Study on the Heritage Sites of Astronomy and Archaeoastronomy, which was prepared in collaboration with ICOMOS, the Advisory Body to UNESCO that assesses World Heritage List applications relating to cultural heritage. Published in 2010, this has been endorsed by the World Heritage Centre as a basis for developing specific guidelines for UNESCO member states on the inscription of astronomical properties. The IAU’s General Assembly in Beijing saw the launch of perhaps the most significant deliverable from the Initiative to date, the Portal to the Heritage of Astronomy (www.astronomicalheritage.net) which is a dynamic, publicly accessible database, discussion forum, and document-repository on astronomical heritage sites throughout the world, whether or not they are on UNESCO’s World Heritage List. In recent months the Working Group has completed a set of nine “Extended Case Studies", which raise a wide range of general issues, varying from the integrity of astronomical sightlines at ancient sites to the preservation of dark skies at modern observatories. Given the progress that has been made to date, how would we wish to see the Initiative develop in the future and what should be the Working Group’s priorities in the coming months and years? Among the suggestions I shall be discussing is that the WG should

  13. Behind the Curtain: Keeping Surgical Patients Warmer Fights Infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Cleveland Clinic, Ohio Photo courtesy of NIGMS Keeping Surgical Patients Warmer Fights Infection As recently as the mid- ... His research led to a new conclusion: Keep surgical patients warm. No new drugs, no fancy technology. Warming ...

  14. Past and future trends in grey water footprints of anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to major world rivers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, C.; Kroeze, C.; Hoekstra, A.Y.; Gerbens-Leenes, W.

    2012-01-01

    The grey water footprint (GWF) is an indicator of aquatic pollution. We calculate past and future trends in GWFs related to anthropogenic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs into major rivers around the world. GWFs were calculated from past, current and future nutrient loads in river basins using

  15. Local Power -- Global Connections: linking the world to a sustainable future through decentralized energy technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brent, Richard; Sweet, David

    2007-07-01

    Various international dynamics are converging to increase the attractiveness of decentralized energy as a complement to existing centralized energy infrastructures. Decentralized energy (DE) technologies, including onsite renewables, high efficiency cogeneration and industrial energy recycling, offer considerable benefits to those seeking working alternatives to emerging challenges in the energy sector. DE is ideally suited to provide clean affordable energy to areas where modern energy services are currently lacking. Having smaller generators close to where energy is required ensures a safe, reliable and secure energy supply when the energy is required. Furthermore, because DE is a much cleaner alternative than conventional central power plants and the energy provided comes at a much smaller price tag DE is an increasingly acceptable alternative both in the developed and developing world. DE is sure to play a key role in any plan to build a sustainable energy future. (auth)

  16. Nuclear fusion and its large potential for the future world energy supply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ongena Jef

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available An overview of the energy problem in the world is presented. The colossal task of ‘decarbonizing’ the current energy system, with ~85% of the primary energy produced from fossil sources is discussed. There are at the moment only two options that can contribute to a solution: renewable energy (sun, wind, hydro, etc. or nuclear fission. Their contributions, ~2% for sun and wind, ~6% for hydro and ~5% for fission, will need to be enormously increased in a relatively short time, to meet the targets set by policy makers. The possible role and large potential for fusion to contribute to a solution in the future as a safe, nearly inexhaustible and environmentally compatible energy source is discussed. The principles of magnetic and inertial confinement are outlined, and the two main options for magnetic confinement, tokamak and stellarator, are explained. The status of magnetic fusion is summarized and the next steps in fusion research, ITER and DEMO, briefly presented.

  17. [The future of hygiene in a world of technology--hygiene and historicism].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habs, H

    1985-03-01

    Stimulated by "historicism", a term coined by Karl Popper, statements uttered by the philosophers Heidegger, Jaspers and Guardini are analysed to see whether historical forecasts are possible which justify a gloomy outlook of the world's future, such as is presently spreading as a result of the concern about an excessive invasion of our life by technology. Man has liberated himself from his original dependence on the natural forces of his environment thanks to the technology he has developed. He has severed his ties with this environment, but must not be overwhelmed by technocracy. Also, we hygienists, should allow for the historical development of our natural and social environment, in addition to the results of laboratory analyses and field studies.

  18. The Future of Comparative and International Education in a Globalised World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, David N.

    2003-03-01

    This article examines the history and future prospects of comparative and international education with particular reference to the impact of globalisation and Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs). Connections and interactions between comparative educationists and the technologies of printing and electronic communications are examined in a historical context. The global nature of communications in comparative and international education is demonstrated both spatially and historically, using information from all regions of the world. The changing nature of technologies is noted to have broadened the audience for comparative insights. The development of textbooks, journals, conferences, international agencies, the Internet, web-based communications, and professional comparative education societies is related to the themes of communications and globalisation.

  19. Intertidal oysters reach their physiological limit in a future high-CO2 world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanes, Elliot; Parker, Laura M; O'Connor, Wayne A; Stapp, Laura S; Ross, Pauline M

    2017-03-01

    Sessile marine molluscs living in the intertidal zone experience periods of internal acidosis when exposed to air (emersion) during low tide. Relative to other marine organisms, molluscs have been identified as vulnerable to future ocean acidification; however, paradoxically it has also been shown that molluscs exposed to high CO2 environments are more resilient compared with those molluscs naive to CO2 exposure. Two competing hypotheses were tested using a novel experimental design incorporating tidal simulations to predict the future intertidal limit of oysters in a high-CO2 world; either high-shore oysters will be more tolerant of elevated PCO2 because of their regular acidosis, or elevated PCO2  will cause high-shore oysters to reach their limit. Sydney rock oysters, Saccostrea glomerata, were collected from the high-intertidal and subtidal areas of the shore and exposed in an orthogonal design to either an intertidal or a subtidal treatment at ambient or elevated PCO2 , and physiological variables were measured. The combined treatment of tidal emersion and elevated PCO2  interacted synergistically to reduce the haemolymph pH (pHe) of oysters, and increase the PCO2  in the haemolymph (Pe,CO2 ) and standard metabolic rate. Oysters in the intertidal treatment also had lower condition and growth. Oysters showed a high degree of plasticity, and little evidence was found that intertidal oysters were more resilient than subtidal oysters. It is concluded that in a high-CO2 world the upper vertical limit of oyster distribution on the shore may be reduced. These results suggest that previous studies on intertidal organisms that lacked tidal simulations may have underestimated the effects of elevated PCO2.

  20. The Future of Pork Production in the World: Towards Sustainable, Welfare-Positive Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGlone, John J

    2013-05-15

    Among land animals, more pork is eaten in the world than any other meat. The earth holds about one billion pigs who deliver over 100 mmt of pork to people for consumption. Systems of pork production changed from a forest-based to pasture-based to dirt lots and finally into specially-designed buildings. The world pork industry is variable and complex not just in production methods but in economics and cultural value. A systematic analysis of pork industry sustainability was performed. Sustainable production methods are considered at three levels using three examples in this paper: production system, penning system and for a production practice. A sustainability matrix was provided for each example. In a comparison of indoor vs. outdoor systems, the food safety/zoonoses concerns make current outdoor systems unsustainable. The choice of keeping pregnant sows in group pens or individual crates is complex in that the outcome of a sustainability assessment leads to the conclusion that group penning is more sustainable in the EU and certain USA states, but the individual crate is currently more sustainable in other USA states, Asia and Latin America. A comparison of conventional physical castration with immunological castration shows that the less-common immunological castration method is more sustainable (for a number of reasons). This paper provides a method to assess the sustainability of production systems and practices that take into account the best available science, human perception and culture, animal welfare, the environment, food safety, worker health and safety, and economics (including the cost of production and solving world hunger). This tool can be used in countries and regions where the table values of a sustainability matrix change based on local conditions. The sustainability matrix can be used to assess current systems and predict improved systems of the future.

  1. To Contribute our wisdom to the standardization and future of the world

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    @@ Just as the theme of this year's World Standards Day, "Standards for a Safer World", the World Standards Day this year is unusual because the role of standards is becoming more and more important and irreplaceable.

  2. Drastic Changes in the Middle East and Future of the Arab World%Drastic Changes in the Middle East and Future of the Arab World

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tang Zhichao

    2011-01-01

    The present severe turbulences in the Middle East reflect, by nature, the Arab World' s efforts in rethinking about and re-defining its own history and the destiny, serving as the Second Renaissance after the World War II for all Arab nations.

  3. Climate Change: A Future of Less Water and More people - Strategies for a Water Constrained World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahai, D.

    2010-12-01

    Today, the fact that the Earth is warming is indisputable. The evidence of climate change is already all around us, with the occurence of ever more intense weather events, droughts, heat waves, floods and sea level rise. Predictions of greater calamities in the future without swift action must be taken seriously. However, while international summits have focused on means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, these are largely strategies of containment, not of cure. Even if emissions were to cease today, the current effects of climate change would remain with us for millenia. This is clear from the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The world must not only tackle the causes of global warming; it must adapt to the damage already done. This need is most acute where water supply is concerned. The world already faces daunting chalenges. According to United Nations' reports, even today 1.8 million children under 5 die from water related diseases every year; 900 million people lack access to safe drinking water; and 2.6 billion go without basic sanitation. In the developing world, 90% of sewage is discharged to water bodies without adequate treatment contributing to "dead zones". Population increases will make matters worse (an addition of around 3 billion people by 2050 is expected) and climate change will compound the crisis. It is forecast that, as the Earth warms, deserts will expand and droughts will intensify causing demographic shifts even as the world's population burgeons. We are already seeing different regions react to water shortages. Many countries are pursuing seawater desalination. However, seawater desalination has numerous drawbacks; it remains the most expensive of water treatment options and the most energy intensive. Some societies may have no choice but to turn to the sea; others should look to other alternatives first. Such frontrunners could include: (1) enhanced conservation, utilizing public education programs, price

  4. The future fertility of mankind: effects on world population growth and migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Short, R V

    2001-01-01

    The world's population, currently just over 6 billion, is projected to increase to 9-10 billion by the year 2050. Most of this growth will occur in the developing countries of Asia, where there is an enormous unmet demand for contraception, while an increasing number of developed countries will have declining populations. The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pandemic will target developing countries, with India destined to become its new epicenter. By 2050, there may be 1 billion HIV-infected people in the world. The significant protective effect of male circumcision may spare Islamic countries, such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran and Indonesia, from the worst effects of the pandemic. Australia will be increasingly threatened by the high rates of population growth of her Asian neighbours. This, coupled with political instability and sea-level rises as a consequence of global warming, will turn the present trickle of refugees from a variety of Asian countries seeking safe haven on our sparsely populated northern coastline into a veritable flood. There will come a time when we have neither the manpower, nor the means, nor even the moral right to intercept, detain or repatriate the thousands who will come in peace, in search of a better life. However, if Australia is to stabilize its future population at around 23 million, which seems highly desirable on ecological grounds, then the net immigration rate must be limited to approximately 50000 people per year. Because the final point of departure for all these refugees is Indonesia, it is essential that Australia maintains good relations with Indonesia, so that together we can attempt to manage the refugee problem. However, Indonesia's own population is destined to increase by 100 million in the next 50 years, which will only exacerbate the situation. Australia would be well advised to make a major increase in its paltry financial assistance to Indonesia's excellent family planning programmes, which are currently

  5. Ozone pollution effects on the land carbon sink in the future greenhouse world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, N.; Yue, X.

    2015-12-01

    Ozone pollution has huge impacts on the carbon balance in the United States, Europe and China. While terrestrial ecosystems provide an important sink for surface ozone through stomatal uptake, this process damages photosynthesis, reduces plant growth and biomass accumulation, and affects stomatal control over plant transpiration of water vapor. Effective mitigation of climate change by stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations requires improved understanding of ozone effects on the land carbon sink. Future effects of ozone pollution on the land carbon sink are largely unknown. We apply multiple observational datasets in combination with the Yale Interactive Terrestrial Biosphere (YIBs) model to quantify ozone vegetation damage in the present climatic state and for a broad range of possible futures. YIBs includes a mechanistic ozone damage model that affects both photosynthetic rate and stomatal conductance for low or high ozone plant sensitivity. YIBs is embedded in the NASA GISS ModelE2 global chemistry-climate model to allow a uniquely informed integration of plant physiology, atmospheric chemistry, and climate. The YIBs model has been extensively evaluated using land carbon flux measurements from 145 flux tower sites and multiple satellite products. Chronic ozone exposure in the present day reduces GPP by 11-23%, NPP by 8-16%, stomatal conductance by 8-17% and leaf area index by 2-5% in the summer time eastern United States. Similar response magnitudes are found in Europe but almost doubled damage effects occur in hotspots in eastern China. We investigate future ozone vegetation damage within the context of multiple global change drivers (physical climate change, carbon dioxide fertilization, human energy and agricultural emissions, human land use) at 2050 following the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the RCP8.5 world at 2050, growing season average GPP and NPP are reduced by 20-40% in China and 5-20% in the United States due to the global rise

  6. Leadership meta-competences for the future world of work: an explorative study in the retail industry

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    To achieve this purpose a leadership meta-competence model, based on levels of work theory, was developed for the future world of work. This model was firstly validated by senior managers in the retail industry. Subsequently a questionnaire assessing the perceived importance of these competencies currently and in the future was designed. This questionnaire was completed by 101 managers from various South African retail industries. The resultant data was analysed and the results indicated that...

  7. The Oil Algorithm: The Impact of World Oil on Future U.S. National Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-04-01

    for South America’s position as a reliable world energy source for the next few decades. 8 North America North America is currently the world’s second...military sources. Military Threats Military threats to world energy sources are simply "threats posed by sudden and traumatic events such as war...real problems. (40:24;41:ix) Non-Military Threats Threats to world energy sources are also posed by induced or evolving situations. These non-military

  8. Reimagine the Future: Innovation for Every Child. The State of the World's Children 2015. Executive Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    UNICEF, 2014

    2014-01-01

    To mark the 25th anniversary of the Convention on the Rights of the Child, this edition of "The State of the World's Children" calls for brave and fresh thinking to address age-old problems that still affect the world's most disadvantaged children. The report is inspired by the work of innovators around the world--who are pushing…

  9. Thermoregulation: incubators, radiant warmers, artificial skins, and body hoods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeBlanc, M H

    1991-09-01

    Keeping babies warm whether using incubator or radiant warmers is important in optimizing their chances of survival. Many design changes have occurred in devices for keeping babies warm, while few controlled studies using clinically important end points have been conducted to assess these changes. Radiant warmers produce larger evaporative heat and water losses and slightly higher basal metabolic rate than incubators. The clinical significance of the higher metabolic rate is uncertain. The water losses create an additional problem in managing infants under radiant warmers. The use of hoods made of thin plastic films to raise local humidity and reduce evaporative water loss helps control this problem. In incubators, humidity may be necessary to provide a warm enough environment for the most immature infants. Artificial skins as yet have not supplanted body hoods for this purpose. Both incubators and radiant warmers produce temperature instability when used as skin servocontrolled devices. There are, however, no data currently available to say how much thermal instability can be well tolerated by a baby. Too much thermal instability produces apnea and increased mortality. Air servocontrolling an incubator reduces environmental temperature instability.

  10. Analysis of Seminar 82 - World Congress on Future Special Education "The Role of the Family in Early Childhood Education".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Updike, Juliette; Foley, Gilbert M.

    The paper is an analysis of seminar 82 of the World Congress on Future Special Education, "The Role of the Family in Early Childhood Education". Issues and problems, alternative solutions and strategies, and pros and cons are listed for each of the following four presentations: "An Assessment Scale - Family Attachment to the High Risk Infant" (G.…

  11. Design and implementation of a low-cost classroom response system for a future classroom in the developing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imran A. Zualkernan

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Economic considerations and lack of adequate infrastructure impose unique design constraints on future classrooms of the developing world. Thus, future classrooms in underprivileged nations may differ significantly from their counterparts in the developed world. Classroom response systems (CRS are an emerging technology for the future classroom. CRS are wireless, hand-held devices that help students provide immediate feedback to questions posed by a teacher. In their present form, due to their relatively high cost and high infrastructural requirements, such systems are not sustainable in most developing countries. This paper presents the design and implementation of a CRS based on an open-source, low-cost, and easily manufactured hardware. The CRS design is based on a hybrid wireless/wired platform using Bluetooth with the 1-Wire networking technology. This design significantly reduces the cost, and is consistent with existing conditions in a typical developing country.

  12. Preferential inspection of recent real-world events over future events: evidence from eye tracking during spoken sentence comprehension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pia eKnoeferle

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Eye-tracking findings suggest people prefer to ground their spoken language comprehension by focusing on recently-seen events more than anticipating future events: When the verb in NP1-VERB-ADV-NP2 sentences was referentially ambiguous between a recently depicted and an equally plausible future clipart action, listeners fixated the target of the recent action more often at the verb than the object that hadn't yet been acted upon. We examined whether this inspection preference generalizes to real-world events, and whether it is (vs. isn't modulated by how often people see recent and future events acted out. In a first eye-tracking study, the experimenter performed an action (e.g., sugaring pancakes, and then a spoken sentence either referred to that action or to an equally plausible future action (e.g., sugaring strawberries. At the verb, people more often inspected the pancakes (the recent target than the strawberries (the future target, thus replicating the recent-event preference with these real-world actions. Adverb tense, indicating a future versus past event, had no effect on participants' visual attention. In a second study we increased the frequency of future actions such that participants saw 50/50 future and recent actions. During the verb people mostly inspected the recent action target, but subsequently they began to rely on tense, and anticipated the future target more often for future than past tense adverbs. A corpus study showed that the verbs and adverbs indicating past versus future actions were equally frequent, suggesting long-term frequency biases did not cause the recent-event preference. Thus, (a recent real-world actions can rapidly influence comprehension (as indexed by eye gaze to objects, and (b people prefer to first inspect a recent action target (vs. an object that will soon be acted upon, even when past and future actions occur with equal frequency. A simple frequency-of-experience account cannot accommodate these

  13. The present and future burden of urinary bladder cancer in the world.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ploeg, M.; Aben, K.K.H.; Kiemeney, L.A.L.M.

    2009-01-01

    Urinary bladder cancer (UBC) is a common disease worldwide. At any point in time 2.7 million people have a history of UBC. The incidence of UBC varies over the world with highest rates in developed communities. But the burden of UBC will increase in less developed areas of the world. These changes c

  14. Future Game Developers within a Virtual World: Learner Archetypes and Team Leader Attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franetovic, Marija

    2016-01-01

    This case study research sought to understand a subset of the next generation in reference to virtual world learning within a game development course. The students completed an ill-structured team project which was facilitated using authentic learning strategies within a virtual world over a period of seven weeks. Research findings emerged from…

  15. Wireless world in 2050 and beyond a window into the future!

    CERN Document Server

    Dixit, Sudhir

    2016-01-01

    This book gathers visionary ideas from leading academics and scientists to predict the future of wireless communication and enabling technologies in 2050 and beyond. The content combines a wealth of illustrations, tables, business models, and novel approaches to the evolution of wireless communication. The book also provides glimpses into the future of emerging technologies, end-to-end systems, and entrepreneurial and business models, broadening readers’ understanding of potential future advances in the field and their influence on society at large.

  16. The world population explosion: causes, backgrounds and projections for the future

    OpenAIRE

    Van Bavel, Jan

    2013-01-01

    At the beginning of the nineteenth century, the total world population crossed the threshold of 1 billion people for the first time in the history of the homo sapiens sapiens. Since then, growth rates have been increasing exponentially, reaching staggeringly high peaks in the 20th century and slowing down a bit thereafter. Total world population reached 7 billion just after 2010 and is expected to count 9 billion by 2045. This paper first charts the differences in population growth between th...

  17. Anaphora, Possible Worlds, and Temporal Schemas: Locating the Future in Public and Religious Discourses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liberty Lee Kohn

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive poetics has often investigated only literary reading practices. This article examines how one particular method of cognitive poetics, text world theory, can be used to understand the cognitive reading practices based upon Christian hermeneutic systems of temporality. To differentiate religious rhetoric from persuasive public rhetoric, the article examines text and discourse worlds in 1980s British Labour Party rhetoric, in the rhetoric of the Sermon on the Mount, and in Catholic social activist rhetoric.

  18. YOUTH PERCEPTIONS ON THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC FUTURE OF ROMANIA IN A GLOBAL WORLD. REASONS FOR MIGRATION

    OpenAIRE

    Marcela Monica Stoica

    2015-01-01

    This analysis aims at giving a coherent and synthetic view on the perceptions of the Romanian youth about the political participation and the economic future of Romania in the context of globalization and the increased migration. Youth is a socio-demographic category with an essential impact on the future of each country but also in Europe and in the world, who are, as many political, economic and social actors claim, the main beneficiaries. And yet the young Romanian males and females tend t...

  19. Current analogues of future climate indicate the likely response of a sensitive montane tropical avifauna to a warming world.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander S Anderson

    Full Text Available Among birds, tropical montane species are likely to be among the most vulnerable to climate change, yet little is known about how climate drives their distributions, nor how to predict their likely responses to temperature increases. Correlative models of species' environmental niches have been widely used to predict changes in distribution, but direct tests of the relationship between key variables, such as temperature, and species' actual distributions are few. In the absence of historical data with which to compare observations and detect shifts, space-for-time substitutions, where warmer locations are used as analogues of future conditions, offer an opportunity to test for species' responses to climate. We collected density data for rainforest birds across elevational gradients in northern and southern subregions within the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT. Using environmental optima calculated from elevational density profiles, we detected a significant elevational difference between the two regions in ten of 26 species. More species showed a positive (19 spp. than negative (7 spp. displacement, with a median difference of ∼80.6 m across the species analysed that is concordant with that expected due to latitudinal temperature differences (∼75.5 m. Models of temperature gradients derived from broad-scale climate surfaces showed comparable performance to those based on in-situ measurements, suggesting the former is sufficient for modeling impacts. These findings not only confirm temperature as an important factor driving elevational distributions of these species, but also suggest species will shift upslope to track their preferred environmental conditions. Our approach uses optima calculated from elevational density profiles, offering a data-efficient alternative to distribution limits for gauging climate constraints, and is sensitive enough to detect distribution shifts in this avifauna in response to temperature changes of as little as 0

  20. Continuous rainfall generation for a warmer climate using observed temperature sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-01-01

    Continuous rainfall sequences are often used as inputs in hydrologic modeling, particularly where a probabilistic assessment is required. Continuous rainfall sequences provide a means for accounting of all aspects of rainfall that produce flooding, for example, not just the design rainfall event but also the rainfall prior to the extreme rainfall event. With the advent of climate change, higher temperatures have been associated with changes in rainfall, in particular intensifying rainfall extremes with less uniform temporal patterns. Given these demonstrated changes to extreme rainfall with temperature rise, there is a need to modify continuous rainfall generators to account for current and likely future changes in temperature. In this work we propose a novel method for simulating continuous rainfall sequences for a future warmer climate by conditioning parameters on their historical sensitivity with temperature. To demonstrate the proposed technique we use a one-dimensional Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model at two locations across Australia. The statistics used in the parameter estimation are conditioned on their historical sensitivity to average monthly temperature to simulate rainfall for a change in temperature. The results are validated by comparing the simulated rainfall against observations originating from differing temperatures and it is shown that the model captures the relative difference in the mean monthly rainfall and monthly maxima. Encouraged by these results we simulate rainfall for higher temperatures and capture expected changes to annual maxima and design temporal patterns for a warmer climate. While we demonstrate our methodology in the simulation of sub-daily rainfall using a specific model, the approach presented here can be applied to all weather generation schemes for projection in a warmer climate.

  1. Through the '80s: thinking globally, acting locally. [Combined Canadian Futures Society and Third General Assembly of World Future Society

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feather, F. (ed.)

    1980-01-01

    This volume was prepared in conjunction with the First Global Conference on the Future, held in Toronto, Canada, July 20-24, 1980. The conference combined the Third General Assembly of the World Future Society and the fifth annual conference of the Canadian Futures Society. The 59 papers presented here were selected from the very large number submitted to the conference committee; space limitations permitted only a small number of papers to be published in this volume. Included also are: the foreword, Mystery of the Future, by Edward R. Schreyer, Governor General of Canada; preface, A Time for Action, by Maurice F. Strong; introduction, Transition to Harmonic Globalism, by Frank Feather; conclusion, What We Must Do: An Agenda for Futurists; and postscript, The Challenge of the '80s, by Aurelio Peccei. The papers were presented under the following topics: The Trauma of Change (4); A Global Perspective (7); Inventorying Our Resources (7); The International Context (8); Economics: Getting Down to Business (9); Human Values: Personal, Social, Religious (6); Communications: Connecting Ourselves Together (4); Education: Learning to Meet Tomorrow (4); Health: New Approaches to Staying Fit (3); Futurism as a Way of Life (5); and Dreams into Action: Methods and Real-Life Experience (2).

  2. High Hopes in a Grim World. Emerging Adults' Views of Their Futures and "Generation X."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnett, Jeffrey Jensen

    2000-01-01

    Explores views of the future among young adults age 21-28 years, focusing on quality of life, financial well-being, career achievements, and personal relationships. Data from interviews and questionnaires show a sharp distinction between how respondents view their personal futures (with high hopes) and how they view their generation's perspective…

  3. UNESCO World Conference on Education for Sustainable Development: Learning Today for a Sustainable Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal of Education for Sustainable Development, 2012

    2012-01-01

    The UNESCO World Conference on Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) will be co-organised in 2014 by UNESCO and the Government of Japan on the occasion of the end of the UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development. It has the following objectives: (1) Celebrating a decade of action; (2) Reorienting education to build a better future…

  4. World Assembly on Aging First Global Focus on Action and Strategies for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Sybil E.

    1985-01-01

    The author interprets the diversity of humanitarian and development issues behind "the age of aging" as highlighted by the United Nations World Assembly on Aging. She examines education as a basic human right of the elderly, continuous adult education, access to education and culture, and funding for these programs. (CT)

  5. International Symposium to assess present and future promise of world's most powerful particle colliders

    CERN Multimedia

    Goshaw, Alfred

    2006-01-01

    "An international group of researchers will meet May 22-26 at Duke University for this year's Hadron Collider Physics Symposium. Participants will review the latest results from what is now the world's most powerful subatomic particle smasher and review final planning for its even more powerful successor now nearing completion."

  6. Regional Economic Integration in the Developing World: Historical Trends at the Future Viability

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    American Integration. Inter-American Economic Affairs, Summer 1967. ldos Santos , Theotonio . "The Structure of 5 Baer, Wener. The Economics of...Series in World Affairs. 1965. Denver: University of dos Santos , Theotonio . "The Structure of Denver. Dependence." American Economic Review, Vol

  7. Epilogue: The BBC World Service and the Middle East: past, present, and future dilemmas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sreberny, A.; Gillespie, M.; Baumann, G.

    2010-01-01

    The article offers information on the company BBC World Service (BBCWS) and its development and struggle in the Middle East. It also explains the relationship between BBCWS and British Foreign and Commonwealth office (FCO). Public diplomacy is stated to have altered the perceived and potential role

  8. UNESCO World Conference on Education for Sustainable Development: Learning Today for a Sustainable Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal of Education for Sustainable Development, 2012

    2012-01-01

    The UNESCO World Conference on Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) will be co-organised in 2014 by UNESCO and the Government of Japan on the occasion of the end of the UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development. It has the following objectives: (1) Celebrating a decade of action; (2) Reorienting education to build a better future…

  9. The future of public hospitals in a globalized world: corporate governance, corporatization or privatization?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mordelet, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    This paper contributes to research in health systems and hospitals governance by examining the reasons and expected outcomes of the generalization of corporate governance rules in both public and private non-profit hospitals, all over the world, in order to achieve its clinical, quality and financial objectives.

  10. FuturICT: Participatory computing to understand and manage our complex world in a more sustainable and resilient way

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbing, D.; Bishop, S.; Conte, R.; Lukowicz, P.; McCarthy, J. B.

    2012-11-01

    We have built particle accelerators to understand the forces that make up our physical world. Yet, we do not understand the principles underlying our strongly connected, techno-socio-economic systems. We have enabled ubiquitous Internet connectivity and instant, global information access. Yet we do not understand how it impacts our behavior and the evolution of society. To fill the knowledge gaps and keep up with the fast pace at which our world is changing, a Knowledge Accelerator must urgently be created. The financial crisis, international wars, global terror, the spreading of diseases and cyber-crime as well as demographic, technological and environmental change demonstrate that humanity is facing serious challenges. These problems cannot be solved within the traditional paradigms. Moving our attention from a component-oriented view of the world to an interaction-oriented view will allow us to understand the complex systems we have created and the emergent collective phenomena characterising them. This paradigm shift will enable new solutions to long-standing problems, very much as the shift from a geocentric to a heliocentric worldview has facilitated modern physics and the ability to launch satellites. The FuturICT flagship project will develop new science and technology to manage our future in a complex, strongly connected world. For this, it will combine the power of information and communication technology (ICT) with knowledge from the social and complexity sciences. ICT will provide the data to boost the social sciences into a new era. Complexity science will shed new light on the emergent phenomena in socially interactive systems, and the social sciences will provide a better understanding of the opportunities and risks of strongly networked systems, in particular future ICT systems. Hence, the envisaged FuturICT flagship will create new methods and instruments to tackle the challenges of the 21st century. FuturICT could indeed become one of the most

  11. 78 FR 61383 - Certain Thermal Support Devices For Infants, Infant Incubators, Infant Warmers, and Components...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-03

    ... COMMISSION Certain Thermal Support Devices For Infants, Infant Incubators, Infant Warmers, and Components... United States after importation of certain thermal support devices for infants, infant incubators, infant... certain thermal support devices for infants, infant incubators, infant warmers, and components thereof...

  12. 78 FR 54911 - Certain Thermal Support Devices for Infants, Infant Incubators, Infant Warmers and Components...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-06

    ... COMMISSION Certain Thermal Support Devices for Infants, Infant Incubators, Infant Warmers and Components.... International Trade Commission has received a complaint entitled Certain Thermal Support Devices for Infants, Infant Incubators, Infant Warmers and Components Thereof, DN 2976; the Commission is soliciting...

  13. Asymmetric effects of cooler and warmer winters on beech phenology last beyond spring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Signarbieux, Constant; Toledano, Ester; Sangines, Paula; Fu, Yongshuo; Schlaepfer, Rodolphe; Buttler, Alexandre; Vitasse, Yann

    2017-04-01

    In temperate trees, the timing of plant growth onset and cessation affect biogeochemical cycles, water and energy balance. Currently, phenological studies largely focus on specific phenophases and on their responses to warming. How differently spring phenology responds to the warming and cooling, and affects the subsequent phases, has not been well investigated. Here, we exposed saplings of Fagus sylvatica L. to warmer and cooler climate during the winter 2013-2014 by conducting a reciprocal transplant experiment between two elevations (1340 vs. 371 m.a.s.l., ca. 6°C difference) in the Swiss Jura mountains. To test the legacy effects of earlier or later budburst on the budset timing, saplings were moved back to their original elevation shortly after the occurrence of budburst in spring 2014. One degree decrease of air temperature resulted in a delay of 10.9 days in budburst dates, whereas one degree of warming advanced the date by 8.8 days. Interestingly, we found an asymmetric effect of the warmer winter vs. cooler winter on the budset timing in autumn: saplings experiencing a cooler winter showed a delay of 31 days in their budset timing compared to the control, whereas saplings experiencing a warmer winter showed 10 days earlier budset. The dependency of spring over autumn phenophases might be partly explained by the building up of the non-structural carbohydrate storage and suggests that the potential delay in growth cessation due to global warming might be smaller than expected. We did not find a significant correlation in budburst dates between 2014 and 2015, indicating that the legacy effects of the different phenophases might be reset during each winter. Adapting phenological models to the whole annual phenological cycle, and considering the different response to cooling and warming, would improve predictions of tree phenology under future climate warming conditions.

  14. The changing world of gas exploration present and future trends; Les evolutions dans le secteur de l'exploration du gaz tendances actuelles et futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duval, B.C. [Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP), 92 - Rueil-Malmaison (France); Maisonnier, G. [Gedigaz, France (France)

    2000-07-01

    The industry has, in the past decade, added much more gas than it has produced, resulting in a 36% increase in world reserves. Therefore the resource base is no longer considered a serious constraint in satisfying the industry's needs. Under such circumstances, one may ask the question: is exploration for gas still needed? One way in which we may deal with this major issue would be to analyse the changes that occur in the upstream world, in relation to technology, the general business context and industry's strategies and their potential impact on future trends. Dramatic advancements in exploration technologies have helped to improve success ratios and prediction of fluid, and to open new prospective areas, while also reducing costs. From a State point of view, exploration constitutes a long term objective to contend with natural gas consumption growth without depending too much on imports, or to develop resources for exports. From a company perception, exploration appears as a necessity not only for future growth but also for geographical or geopolitical opportunities. Gas reserve additions will come increasingly from a combination of exploration and production deals. The numerous new opportunities created by a more open business environment will facilitate such developments. (authors)

  15. Large-scale water projects in the developing world: Revisiting the past and looking to the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivakumar, Bellie; Chen, Ji

    2014-05-01

    During the past half a century or so, the developing world has been witnessing a significant increase in freshwater demands due to a combination of factors, including population growth, increased food demand, improved living standards, and water quality degradation. Since there exists significant variability in rainfall and river flow in both space and time, large-scale storage and distribution of water has become a key means to meet these increasing demands. In this regard, large dams and water transfer schemes (including river-linking schemes and virtual water trades) have been playing a key role. While the benefits of such large-scale projects in supplying water for domestic, irrigation, industrial, hydropower, recreational, and other uses both in the countries of their development and in other countries are undeniable, concerns on their negative impacts, such as high initial costs and damages to our ecosystems (e.g. river environment and species) and socio-economic fabric (e.g. relocation and socio-economic changes of affected people) have also been increasing in recent years. These have led to serious debates on the role of large-scale water projects in the developing world and on their future, but the often one-sided nature of such debates have inevitably failed to yield fruitful outcomes thus far. The present study aims to offer a far more balanced perspective on this issue. First, it recognizes and emphasizes the need for still additional large-scale water structures in the developing world in the future, due to the continuing increase in water demands, inefficiency in water use (especially in the agricultural sector), and absence of equivalent and reliable alternatives. Next, it reviews a few important success and failure stories of large-scale water projects in the developing world (and in the developed world), in an effort to arrive at a balanced view on the future role of such projects. Then, it discusses some major challenges in future water planning

  16. Future Challenges for the Arab World: The Implications of Demographic and Economic Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Algeria, and Jordan are very different from those in their mothers ’ generation, let alone their grandmothers’. Although these young women are generally...in Egypt encouraged the creation of “screwdriver” operations: small local assembly operations that import disassembled automo- biles , screw the...New Media in the Muslim World, Bloomington, Ind.: Indiana University Press, 2003, pp. 158–179. Herb , Michael, “Princes and Parliaments in the Arab

  17. Shaping China’s Future in World Affairs: The U.S. Role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    political chord in China and among Third World countries deemed important to China. In the mid-1980s, with the rise to power of Mikhail Gorbachev and his...As part of its more relaxed stance regarding Soviet policy in Asia, Beijing muted or reversed past vocal support for greater Japanese defense efforts...culturally they appear to be not nearly as influential as the United States. In recent years, advocates of this third tendency have been most vocal

  18. Model biases in rice phenology under warmer climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tianyi; Li, Tao; Yang, Xiaoguang; Simelton, Elisabeth

    2016-06-07

    Climate-induced crop yields model projections are constrained by the accuracy of the phenology simulation in crop models. Here, we use phenology observations from 775 trials with 19 rice cultivars in 5 Asian countries to compare the performance of four rice phenology models (growing-degree-day (GDD), exponential, beta and bilinear models) when applied to warmer climates. For a given cultivar, the difference in growing season temperature (GST) varied between 2.2 and 8.2 °C in different trials, which allowed us to calibrate the models for lower GST and validate under higher GST, with three calibration experiments. The results show that in warmer climates the bilinear and beta phenology models resulted in gradually increasing bias for phenology predication and double yield bias per percent increase in phenology simulation bias, while the GDD and exponential models maintained a comparatively constant bias. The phenology biases were primarily attributed to varying phenological patterns to temperature in models, rather than on the size of the calibration dataset. Additionally, results suggest that model simulations based on multiple cultivars provide better predictability than using one cultivar. Therefore, to accurately capture climate change impacts on rice phenology, we recommend simulations based on multiple cultivars using the GDD and exponential phenology models.

  19. Model biases in rice phenology under warmer climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tianyi; Li, Tao; Yang, Xiaoguang; Simelton, Elisabeth

    2016-06-01

    Climate-induced crop yields model projections are constrained by the accuracy of the phenology simulation in crop models. Here, we use phenology observations from 775 trials with 19 rice cultivars in 5 Asian countries to compare the performance of four rice phenology models (growing-degree-day (GDD), exponential, beta and bilinear models) when applied to warmer climates. For a given cultivar, the difference in growing season temperature (GST) varied between 2.2 and 8.2 °C in different trials, which allowed us to calibrate the models for lower GST and validate under higher GST, with three calibration experiments. The results show that in warmer climates the bilinear and beta phenology models resulted in gradually increasing bias for phenology predication and double yield bias per percent increase in phenology simulation bias, while the GDD and exponential models maintained a comparatively constant bias. The phenology biases were primarily attributed to varying phenological patterns to temperature in models, rather than on the size of the calibration dataset. Additionally, results suggest that model simulations based on multiple cultivars provide better predictability than using one cultivar. Therefore, to accurately capture climate change impacts on rice phenology, we recommend simulations based on multiple cultivars using the GDD and exponential phenology models.

  20. Evidence for warmer interglacials in East Antarctic ice cores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sime, L C; Wolff, E W; Oliver, K I C; Tindall, J C

    2009-11-19

    Stable isotope ratios of oxygen and hydrogen in the Antarctic ice core record have revolutionized our understanding of Pleistocene climate variations and have allowed reconstructions of Antarctic temperature over the past 800,000 years (800 kyr; refs 1, 2). The relationship between the D/H ratio of mean annual precipitation and mean annual surface air temperature is said to be uniform +/-10% over East Antarctica and constant with time +/-20% (refs 3-5). In the absence of strong independent temperature proxy evidence allowing us to calibrate individual ice cores, prior general circulation model (GCM) studies have supported the assumption of constant uniform conversion for climates cooler than that of the present day. Here we analyse the three available 340 kyr East Antarctic ice core records alongside input from GCM modelling. We show that for warmer interglacial periods the relationship between temperature and the isotopic signature varies among ice core sites, and that therefore the conversions must be nonlinear for at least some sites. Model results indicate that the isotopic composition of East Antarctic ice is less sensitive to temperature changes during warmer climates. We conclude that previous temperature estimates from interglacial climates are likely to be too low. The available evidence is consistent with a peak Antarctic interglacial temperature that was at least 6 K higher than that of the present day -approximately double the widely quoted 3 +/- 1.5 K (refs 5, 6).

  1. Future Structure of the Life-World. As an inevitable consequence of the «peer-to-peer»

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mototaka Mori

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article intends to draw theoretically a future structure of the life-world. The state interventionism in the late capitalism has been often argued by the critical theoreticians like Jurgen Habermas since the last half of the twentieth century. It was particularly the main problem how possible the life-world was in such the technologically systematized society. However, the highly technological development of telecommunication has changed our everyday life very rapidly and totally. If we know such the rapid change of coevolution between human life and technology, we have to fundamentally reconsider on the theory of life-world. Therefore, in this article I will firstly focus on the classical theory of mundane social world which Alfred Schutz presented in the early 1930s. Of course, his project of socio-phenomenology has been one of the most brilliant und important works still now. However, his theory also will have to be renewed. If we know particularly the «peer-to-peer» constellation of the computer network by the distributed anonymous persons, the classical model of life-world must be versioned up to a next theoretical level. Secondly, considering on the virtual currency like the Bitcoin, this article will show you a hypothetical aspect of transformation of the life-world. The mechanism of trust, which has been often understood as one of the most important key concepts for the community or the society, may be replaced with the computer technology of cryptographic proof. Such a theoretical examination will finally lead to an important opened problem. We will have to inquire whether such the social order will be spontaneous, or whether such the ordering will have to be decided only by the speed of computer’s central processing unit.

  2. Time Frame and Justice Motive: Future Perspective Moderates the Adaptive Function of General Belief in a Just World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Michael Shengtao; Sutton, Robbie M.; Yan, Xiaodan; Zhou, Chan; Chen, Yiwen; Zhu, Zhuohong; Han, Buxin

    2013-01-01

    Background The human ability to envision the future, that is, to take a future perspective (FP), plays a key role in the justice motive and its function in transcending disadvantages and misfortunes. The present research investigated whether individual (Study 1) and situational (Study 2) differences in FP moderated the association of general belief in a just world (GBJW) with psychological resilience. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated FP, GBJW, and resilience in sample of adolescents (n = 223) and disaster survivors (n = 218) in China. In Study 1, adolescents revealed stronger GBJW than PBJW, and GBJW uniquely predicted resilience in the daily lives of those with high FP (but not those with low FP). In Study 2, natural priming of FP (vs. no FP) facilitated the association of GBJW with resilience after disaster. Conclusions/Significance Supporting predictions, participants endorsed GBJW more strongly than PBJW. Further, GBJW interacted with FP in both studies, such that there was an association between GBJW and resilience at high but not low levels of FP. The results corroborate recent findings suggesting that GBJW may be more psychologically adaptive than PBJW among some populations. They also confirm that focusing on the future is an important aspect of the adaptive function of just-world beliefs. PMID:24312235

  3. Makiguchi in the "Fractured Future": Value-Creating and Transformative World Language Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goulah, Jason

    2009-01-01

    This article examines the applicability of Tsunesaburo Makiguchi's (1871-1944) educational ideas in what Denzin and Lincoln (2005) call the "fractured future," a time marked by human, environmental, and climatic destabilization, and a time in which the social sciences "are normative disciplines always already embedded in issues of value..." (13).…

  4. 不同升温阈值下中国地区极端气候事件变化预估%Changes in Climate Extremes over China in a 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C Warmer World

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈晓晨; 徐影; 姚遥

    2015-01-01

    Due to human-induced global warming, global Average Surface Air Temperature (ASAT) will reach certain thresholds with reference to the pre-industrial period. Quantitative assessments of climate extremes across China when reaching these thresholds are important indicators in disaster risk management and policymaking. In this study, based on outputs of 18 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), 27 climate-extreme indices computed with a consistent methodology are used to quantify the changes in the mean and extreme climate across China when the 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C thresholds under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios are exceeded. In general, the ASAT warms faster over China than the global mean in the 21st century. Extreme warm events (e.g., warm nights, warm days, and tropical nights) increase greatly, while extreme cold events (e.g., cold nights, cold days, and frost days) decrease. When the 4°C threshold is exceeded, warm nights index (spatially averaged over China) are projected to show an increase of about 49.9% relative to the reference period. Accompanied by the increase in global mean temperature, the northern part of China will see more precipitation when the 2°C threshold is exceeded. Extreme precipitation shows obvious intensification in both frequency and magnitude when different temperature thresholds are exceeded. China is dominated by lengthening heavy and very heavy precipitation days and increasing maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation amount increases by 12.5 mm and 17.0 mm when the global ASAT becomes 3°C and 4°C warmer, respectively. The changes are found to be more pronounced under higher temperature thresholds. Southwest China, however, exhibits larger changes in the magnitude of extreme precipitation than other regions.%本文基于耦合模式

  5. Experience of genetic forecasts for world energy: Can we foresee the distant future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimenko, V. V.

    2014-10-01

    It has been established that the historical approach to forecasting world energy can yield useful results at time horizons with a depth of several decades. The genetic forecast supposes the stabilization of global energy consumption at the level of 30 billion tons of coal equivalent and an increase in the carbon dioxide concentration almost to 500 parts per million by the end of the century. From the historical point of view, implementation of the most aggressive IPCC scenarios of human impact seems to be very unlikely.

  6. [The current and future organisational structure of the OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo León, F; Ruiz Mercader, J; Sabater Sánchez, R; Rodríguez Ferri, E F; Crespo Azofra, L

    2003-12-01

    The authors analyse the organisational structure of the OIE (World organisation for animal health), highlighting the roles of the Central Bureau, the Specialist Commissions, Regional Commissions, working groups and ad hoc groups, Regional Representations, Reference Laboratories and Collaborating Centres. The paper also includes some suggestions as to how the OIE could work more closely with its 'customers', that is, the Member Countries. These suggestions are based on current theories of organisational flexibility, and take into account not only the current organisational structure of the OIE, but also the Strategic Plan and the Working Plan, which were adopted at the 69th General Session of the OIE International Committee in 2001.

  7. Impacts of Vertical Structure of Convection on Tropical Circulation in a Warmer Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C. A.; Chou, C.

    2014-12-01

    The atmosphere becomes warmer and more humid under global warming, while changes in precipitation show a large discrepancy on a regional scale. Changes in regional precipitation are usually associated with changes in tropical circulation. Stronger (weaker) upward motion enhances (reduces) precipitation amount and intensity, in addition to the effect of enhanced water vapor. In a more detailed analysis, however, changes in atmospheric vertical motion can be either strengthened or weakened, even within convective areas with positive rainfall anomalies. To understand the diverse responses of changes in tropical circulation in a warmer climate as well as the associated mechanism, atmospheric stability and the impact of the vertical structure of convection on tropical circulation are investigated in 32 coupled global climate models from CMIP3 and CMIP5. The study regions are convective areas with positive precipitation anomalies. Under global warming, an upward shift structure of vertical velocity is observed in all model simulations, which implies a deepening of convection and a more stable atmosphere. Areas with enhanced (weakened) ascending motion, the climatological bottom-heavy (top-heavy) structure of vertical velocity tends to import more (less) moist static energy to counteract the stabilization due to the effect of deepened convection, and then the ascending motion is strengthened (weakened). The bottom-heavy-like structure is dominated by shallow convection, while the top-heavy-like structure is usually associated with deep convection. In other words, shallow convection tends to strengthen tropical circulation and enhance upward motion in future climate.

  8. The future of the brain essays by the world's leading neuroscientists

    CERN Document Server

    Freeman, Jeremy

    2015-01-01

    An unprecedented look at the quest to unravel the mysteries of the human brain, The Future of the Brain takes readers to the absolute frontiers of science. Original essays by leading researchers such as Christof Koch, George Church, Olaf Sporns, and May-Britt and Edvard Moser describe the spectacular technological advances that will enable us to map the more than eighty-five billion neurons in the brain, as well as the challenges that lie ahead in understanding the anticipated deluge of data and the prospects for building working simulations of the human brain. A must-read for anyone trying to understand ambitious new research programs such as the Obama administration's BRAIN Initiative and the European Union’s Human Brain Project, The Future of the Brain sheds light on the breathtaking implications of brain science for medicine, psychiatry, and even human consciousness itself.

  9. Road safety in a globalised and more sustainable world: current issues and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Stijn; Risser, Ralf

    2014-01-01

    Although many countries have had considerable success in reducing traffic injuries over recent decades, there are still some fundamental problems in this area. At the same time, there is increasing focus on road safety research and policy development in the context of globalisation, sustainability, liveability and health. This special section presents a selection of papers that were presented at the annual ICTCT workshop held on the 8th and 9th of November 2012 in Hasselt, Belgium, and accepted for publication in Accident Analysis and Prevention following the journal's reviewing procedure. The aim of the ICTCT workshop was to analyse road safety facts, data and visions for the future in the wider context of current issues and future challenges in road safety.

  10. Physics and technology for future presidents an introduction to the essential physics every world leader needs to know

    CERN Document Server

    Muller, Richard A

    2010-01-01

    Physics and Technology for Future Presidents contains the essential physics that students need in order to understand today's core science and technology issues, and to become the next generation of world leaders. From the physics of energy to climate change, and from spy technology to quantum computers, this is the only textbook to focus on the modern physics affecting the decisions of political leaders and CEOs and, consequently, the lives of every citizen. How practical are alternative energy sources? Can satellites really read license plates from space? What is the quantum physics behind i

  11. World English and the Future of English Language Teaching in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴艳

    2008-01-01

    The development and wide spread of English language has led to the internationalization and localization of English language, during which English language is widely used in international communications by people with different mother tongues, in addition, English variations on different levels and local varieties have emerged. In consideration to the changes above, this paper aims to, firstly, examine the status of English language as an international language (ELL); secondly, explore the future of English language teaching (ELT) in China under a global context.

  12. Oil and the future: Taking bearings in the greenhouse in a post Brent Spar world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leggett, J.

    1995-12-31

    The paper discusses future oil combustion. A greenhouse-related environmental driving-force seems set to emerge in the capital markets in the years ahead. This will severely compound other already serious environment-related financial problems blighting the oil-industry`s access to capital radar screen. The wise oil company is now, increasingly clearly, the company thinking about how to begin repositioning itself for the twenty-first century as a total energy company. 6 refs.

  13. Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2017-05-01

    The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1) till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

  14. A world class nuclear research reactor complex for South Africa's nuclear future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keshaw, Jeetesh [South African Young Nuclear Professional Society, PO Box 9396, Centurion, 0157 (South Africa)

    2008-07-01

    South Africa recently made public its rather ambitious goals pertaining to nuclear energy developments in a Draft Policy and Strategy issued for public comment. Not much attention was given to an important tool for nuclear energy research and development, namely a well equipped and maintained research reactor, which on its own does not do justice to its potential, unless it is fitted with all the ancillaries and human resources as most first world countries have. In South Africa's case it is suggested to establish at least one Nuclear Energy Research and Development Centre at such a research reactor, where almost all nuclear energy related research can be carried out on par with some of the best in the world. The purpose of this work is to propose how this could be done, and motivate why it is important that it be done with great urgency, and with full involvement of young professionals, if South Africa wishes to face up to the challenges mentioned in the Draft Strategy and Policy. (authors)

  15. Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoegh-Guldberg, O. [University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW (Australia). School of Biological Sciences

    1999-07-01

    Sea temperatures in many tropical regions have increased by almost 1{degree}C over the past 100 years, and are currently increasing at about 1-2{degree}C per century. Mass coral bleaching has occurred in association with episodes of elevated sea temperatures over the past 20 years and involves the loss of the zooxanthellae following chronic photoinhibition. Mass bleaching has resulted in significant losses of live coral in many parts of the world. This paper considers the biochemical, physiological and ecological perspectives of coral bleaching. It also uses the outputs of four runs from three models of global climate change which simulate changes in sea temperature and hence how the frequency and intensity of bleaching events will change over the next 100 years. The results suggest that the thermal tolerances of reef-building corals are likely to be exceeded every year within the next few decades. Events as severe as the 1998 event, the worst on record, are likely to become commonplace within 20 years. Most information suggests that the capacity for acclimation by corals has already been exceeded, and that adaptation will be too slow to avert a decline in the quality of the world's reefs.

  16. SmallSat Spinning Lander with a Raman Spectrometer Payload for Future Ocean Worlds Exploration Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridenoure, R.; Angel, S. M.; Aslam, S.; Gorius, N.; Hewagama, T.; Nixon, C. A.; Sharma, S.

    2017-01-01

    We describe an Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle Secondary Payload Adapter (ESPA)-class SmallSat spinning lander concept for the exploration of Europa or other Ocean World surfaces to ascertain the potential for life. The spinning lander will be ejected from an ESPA ring from an orbiting or flyby spacecraft and will carry on-board a standoff remote Spatial Heterodyne Raman spectrometer (SHRS) and a time resolved laser induced fluorescence spectrograph (TR-LIFS), and once landed and stationary the instruments will make surface chemical measurements. The SHRS and TR-LIFS have no moving parts have minimal mass and power requirements and will be able to characterize the surface and near-surface chemistry, including complex organic chemistry to constrain the ocean composition.

  17. Cancer epidemiology and control in the arab world - past, present and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salim, Elsayed I; Moore, Malcolm A; Al-Lawati, Jawad A; Al-Sayyad, Jamal; Bazawir, Amin; Bener, Abdulbari; Corbex, Marilys; El-Saghir, Nagi; Habib, Omran S; Maziak, Wasim; Mokhtar, Hamdi Cherif; Seif-Eldrin, Ibrahim Abdel-Barr; Sobue, Tomotaka

    2009-01-01

    The Arab world, stretching from Lebanon and Syria in the north, through to Morocco in the west, Yemen in the south and Iraq in the east, is the home of more than 300 million people. Cancer is already a major problem and the lifestyle changes underlying the markedly increasing rates for diabetes mean that the burden of neoplasia will only become heavier over time, especially with increasing obesity and aging of what are now still youthful populations. The age-distributions of the affected patients in fact might also indicate cohort effects in many cases. There are a number of active registries in the region and population-based data are now available for a considerable number of countries. A body of Arab scientists is also contributing to epidemiological research into the causes of cancer and how to develop effective control programs. The present review covers the relevant PubMed literature and cancer incidence data from various sources, highlighting similarities and variation in the different cancer types, with attempts to explain disparities with reference to possible environmental factors. In males, the most prevalent cancers vary, with lung, urinary bladder or liver in first place, while for females throughout the region breast cancer is the greatest problem. In both sexes, non-Hodgkins lymphomas and leukemias are relatively frequent, along with thyroid cancer in certain female populations. Adenocarcinomas of the breast, prostate and colorectum appear to be increasing. Coordination of activities within the Arab world could bring major benefits to cancer control in the eastern Mediterranean region.

  18. On the local constitution of global futures. Science and democratic engagement in a decentred world.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Irwin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This essay focuses on the relationship between public engagement with science and larger discussions of globalized and decentred democracy. In particular, it asks whether public engagement on very specific issues and in the form of carefully-planned exercises should be seen as a distraction (or irrelevance with regard to the democratic process or else as an enhancement and invigoration of it. It will be argued that we cannot tackle these issues of engagement and democracy without considering the wider challenges of governing what are very often globalized, socio-culturally complex and generally-wicked problems. There is a tendency for engagement initiatives to operate at the regional or national levels. But what happens when the issues are presented as crossing borders and boundaries, and when the traditional centres of power seem sidelined by the expressed requirement for ‘global’ governance? Going further, issues of science and technology governance often involve a special concern with the future or, more specifically, the multiple futures suggested by science, technology and innovation and their relationship to our sense of the present. I will suggest that the heterogeneous practices of scientific governance represent both a challenge when it comes to issues such as climate change and global food security but also an important focus for STS scholarship. Finally, and in the spirit of more grounded conclusions, I suggest six ‘red blooded’ principles for public engagement which can at least get us started in addressing these issues.

  19. The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area seagrasses: Managing this iconic Australian ecosystem resource for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles, Robert G.; Rasheed, Michael A.; McKenzie, Len J.; Grech, Alana; York, Paul H.; Sheaves, Marcus; McKenna, Skye; Bryant, Catherine

    2015-02-01

    The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA) includes one of the world's largest areas of seagrass (35,000 km2) encompassing approximately 20% of the world's species. Mapping and monitoring programs sponsored by the Australian and Queensland Governments and Queensland Port Authorities have tracked a worrying decrease in abundance and area since 2007. This decline has almost certainly been the result of a series of severe tropical storms and associated floods exacerbating existing human induced stressors. A complex variety of marine and terrestrial management actions and plans have been implemented to protect seagrass and other habitats in the GBRWHA. For seagrasses, these actions are inadequate. They provide an impression of effective protection of seagrasses; reduce the sense of urgency needed to trigger action; and waste the valuable and limited supply of "conservation capital". There is a management focus on ports, driven by public concerns about high profile development projects, which exaggerates the importance of these relatively concentrated impacts in comparison to the total range of threats and stressors. For effective management of seagrass at the scale of the GBRWHA, more emphasis needs to be placed on the connectivity between seagrass meadow health, watersheds, and all terrestrial urban and agricultural development associated with human populations. The cumulative impacts to seagrass from coastal and marine processes in the GBRWHA are not evenly distributed, with a mosaic of high and low vulnerability areas. This provides an opportunity to make choices for future coastal development plans that minimise stress on seagrass meadows.

  20. World Association for the Advancement of Veterinary Parasitology (WAAVP): the 50th anniversary in 2013--history, achievements, and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckert, J

    2013-08-01

    In 2013 the World Association for the Advancement of Veterinary Parasitology (WAAVP) can celebrate its 50th anniversary. At this occasion in this article selected historical data are updated, and the achievements and future perspectives of the WAAVP are discussed. Although the WAAVP is a small association with only a few hundred members, it has been able to develop remarkable activities. Between 1963 and 2011 the WAAVP has organized 23 international scientific congresses, and the 24th conference will take place in Perth, Western Australia, in 2013. These conferences have achieved a high degree of international recognition as indicated by relatively large numbers of participants (up to ~800). Furthermore, the WAAVP has promoted veterinary parasitology in various ways, such as publishing international guidelines (efficacy evaluation of antiparasitic drugs, parasitological methods, standardized nomenclature of animal parasitic diseases "SNOAPAD"), stimulating international discussions on teaching and continued education ("colleges of veterinary parasitology") and by supporting the high quality journal "Veterinary Parasitology" which is the official organ of the WAAVP. In retrospect, the development of the WAAVP can be classified as very successful. New challenges associated with global changes (growth of the world population, urbanization, climate change, new developments in animal and plant production, etc.) will require new efforts in research in various fields, including veterinary parasitology. Future activities of WAAVP may include inter alia: (a) support of international parasitological networks; (b) stimulation of coordinated research aimed at the solution of defined problems; (c) increasing the exposure of WAAVP to parasitology from hitherto neglected regions of the world; (d) strengthening of official links to international organizations (FAO, WHO, etc.); (e) continuation of guideline preparation; and (d) preparation and international distribution of high

  1. Herschel Interactive Processing Environment (HIPE): Open to the World and the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balm, P.

    2012-09-01

    Herschel is ESA's space-based infrared observatory. It was launched on May 14, 2009 and is in routine science operations. The Herschel Interactive Processing Environment, HIPE, is Herschel's interactive analysis package. HIPE has a user-base of approximately 1,000 users and a major new version is released twice a year. HIPE is the first open-source astronomy data analysis package written entirely in Java and Jython, which allows it to provide a modern GUI with command echoing, sophisticated interoperability and extensibility, with access to the vast amounts of Java libraries. HIPE includes the official data reduction scripts and allows executing and modifying them as needed. These aspects may make HIPE the seed for the astronomy working environment of the future.

  2. Cord Blood Banking in the Arab World: Current Status and Future Developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Monica M; Dajani, Rana; Matthews, Kirstin R W

    2015-07-01

    Umbilical cord blood transplants are now used to treat numerous types of immune- and blood-related disorders and genetic diseases. Cord blood (CB) banks play an important role in these transplants by processing and storing CB units. In addition to their therapeutic potential, these banks raise ethical and regulatory questions, especially in emerging markets in the Arab world. In this article, the authors review CB banking in five countries in the region, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, selected for their different CB banking policies and initiatives. In assessing these case studies, the authors present regional trends and issues, including religious perspectives, policies, and demographic risk factors. This research suggests strong incentives for increasing the number of CB units that are collected from and available to Arab populations. In addition, the deficit in knowledge concerning public opinion and awareness in the region should be addressed to ensure educated decision-making. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Strategic R and D Planning for an Energy Future in an Interdependent World

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schainker, R.B.; Gellings, C.; Rosinski, S.

    2007-07-01

    This paper presents a summary of key results of a comprehensive analysis of technology R and D needs for the U.S. electric utility industry. It focuses on the impacts of the world-wide interdependencies for the price of gas/oil fuel and the costs for environmental emissions as drivers to define four 'what-if' scenarios that act as a basis to define key R and D topics U.S. electric utilities need to address. This paper is based on past work the U.S. Electric Power Research Institute performed on a technology roadmap, which is a high-level document that provides guidance on strategic technology planning over the next 40-50 years for the electricity industry. However, critical uncertainties over this timeframe - such as fuel prices, the economy, the environment, technology advances, and regulatory policies - complicate effective identification and development of R and D priorities. To address these uncertainties and to develop a nearer-term technology-oriented action plan, EPRI undertook an Electric Power Industry Technology Scenarios project that uses scenario planning to explicitly incorporate uncertainty and focuses on a 20-year planning horizon. (auth)

  4. Colorectal Cancer in the Arab World--Screening Practices and Future Prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arafa, Mostafa A; Farhat, Karim

    2015-01-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality rates have dropped 30% in the US in the last 10 years among adults ages 50 and older due to the widespread uptake of colonoscopy, yet incidences in the Arab countries have been increasing in the past ten years, albeit with lower figures when compared with developed countries. Lifestyle changes, food consumption patterns and obesity have been observed during the past years where the regular consumption of traditional foods is being replaced with more Western-style and ready-made foods. Most high income countries have implemented population based colorectal cancer screening programs, which aid in decreasing the incidence and mortality of cancer, while these are lacking in most of the Arab world countries due to many cultural and religious barriers to CRC screening as well as lack of high education or familiarity. What is needed is health education to modify risky lifestyle, and to increase motives and enhance positive attitudes towards early screening especially amongst high risk groups in addition to policy designed to encourage healthier living.

  5. A Survey on Cloud Computing Security Issues, Vendor Evaluation and Selection Process: World Future Society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arun Sangwan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing is an emerging technology which could replace long-established IT systems. Cloud computing made big strides forward in 2013, and if a host of industry experts proves correct, it will make even bigger advances in 2014. As Forbes, CxoToday, GigaOM, and other news services that cover technology report, the experts forecast many more companies joining clouds or creating their own; new professional services emerging to manage the clouds and the data within them; and the clouds’ expansion transforming IT and work life in general trough out the world. Cloud computing makes it possible for an organizations’ IT to be more malleable, save costs and process information and data faster than with long-established IT. Cloud computing is the operating of programs and storage of data and files in an online network, not on physical disks and hardware’s. Cloud computing arises from the IT technicians desire to add another layer of separation in processing information. Cloud Vendor Evaluation & Selection offering leverages the database to accelerate the identification and screening of candidate vendors in four-step vendor evaluation and selection process.

  6. Comparing World Economic and Net Energy Metrics, Part 3: Macroeconomic Historical and Future Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carey W. King

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available I use energy cost share to characterize the role of energy in the economy. Specifically, I use an estimate of monetary expenditures for primary energy on an annualized basis for forty-four countries from 1978 to 2010 for natural gas, coal, petroleum, and electricity. I show that global energy cost share is significantly correlated to a one-year lag in the change in gross domestic product as well as measures of total factor productivity. Given the historical reduction in the relative cost of energy (including food and fodder for animate power since the start of the Industrial Revolution, combined with a global energy cost share estimate, I conclude that the turn of the 21st Century represents the time period with the cheapest energy in the history of human civilization (to date. This potential historical nadir for energy expenditures around 2000 has important ramifications for strategies to solve future social, economic, and environmental problems such as reducing annual emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs. Rapidly decreasing annual GHG emissions while internalizing their costs into the economy might feedback to increase energy expenditures to such a degree as to prevent economic growth during that transition.

  7. Warmer and drier conditions and nitrogen fertilizer application altered methanotroph abundance and methane emissions in a vegetable soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ran, Yu; Xie, Jianli; Xu, Xiaoya; Li, Yong; Liu, Yapeng; Zhang, Qichun; Li, Zheng; Xu, Jianming; Di, Hongjie

    2016-11-12

    Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas, and soil can both be a source and sink for atmospheric CH4. It is not clear how future climate change may affect soil CH4 emissions and related microbial communities. The aim of this study was to determine the interactive effects of a simulated warmer and drier climate scenarios and the application of different nitrogen (N) sources (urea and manure) on CH4 emissions and related microbial community abundance in a vegetable soil. Greenhouses were used to control simulated climate conditions which gave 2.99 °C warmer and 6.2% lower water content conditions. The field experiment was divided into two phases. At the beginning of phase II, half of the greenhouses were removed to study possible legacy effects of the simulated warmer and drier conditions. The responses in methanogen and methanotroph abundance to a simulated climate change scenario were determined using real-time PCR. The results showed that the simulated warmer and drier conditions in the greenhouses significantly decreased CH4 emissions largely due to the lower soil moisture content. For the same reason, CH4 emissions of treatments in phase I were much lower than the same treatments in phase II. The abundance of methanotrophs showed a more significant response than methanogens to the simulated climate change scenario, increasing under simulated drier conditions. Methanogenic community abundance remained low, except where manure was applied which provided a source of organic C that stimulated methanogen growth. Soil moisture content was a major driver for methanotroph abundance and strongly affected CH4 emissions. The application of N source decreased CH4 emissions probably because of increased methanotrophic activity. CH4 emissions were positively correlated to methanogenic abundance and negatively correlated to methanotrophic abundance. These results demonstrate that projected future climate change conditions can have a feedback impact on CH4 emissions from the

  8. Futurism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foy, Jane Loring

    The objectives of this research report are to gain insight into the main problems of the future and to ascertain the attitudes that the general population has toward the treatment of these problems. In the first section of this report the future is explored socially, psychologically, and environmentally. The second section describes the techniques…

  9. EcoMobility. Changwon 2011 World Congress on Mobility for the Future of Sustainable Cities. A Series of Local Cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    More than 390 participants from around the world gathered in Changwon, Republic of Korea to share ideas on sustainable mobility and discuss creative solutions for the future. On the occasion of this global multi-stakeholder forum ICLEI published a series of local case stories to showcase leading visionaries for EcoMobility. These local case stories provide a deeper insight into the practices of sustainable mobility and serve as a source of inspiration for innovative transport solutions. Included are 14 outstanding examples from: Ahmedabad, India; Bologna, Italy; Bremen, Germany; Curitiba, Brazil; Freiburg, Germany; Gaevle, Sweden; Hangzhou, China; La Rochelle, France; London, UK; Lund, Sweden; Portland, USA; Seoul, Republic of Korea; Stockholm, Sweden; and Vancouver, Canada.

  10. The World Health Organization program for emergency surgical, obstetric, and anesthetic care: from Mongolia to the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Fizan; Troedsson, Hans; Cherian, Meena

    2011-05-01

    This special article provides an introduction to the World Health Organization (WHO) Emergency and Essential Surgical Care (EESC) program. The program was launched by the WHO in December of 2005 to address the lack of adequate surgical capacity as a global public health issue. The overall objective is to reduce death and disability from trauma, burns, pregnancy-related complications, domestic violence, disasters, and other surgically treatable conditions. The program and materials have spread to over 35 countries and focus on providing (1) basic education and training materials; (2) enhancement of surgical infrastructure at the governmental and health facility level; and (3) resources for monitoring and evaluating surgical, obstetrical, and anesthetic capacity. Additionally, a global forum for program members was established that collaborates with ministries of health, WHO country offices, nongovernmental organizations, and academia. The results of the third biennial meeting of global EESC members in Mongolia are outlined as well as future challenges.

  11. Serving two purposes: Plans for a MOOC and a World Campus course called Energy, the Environment, and Our Future (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bralower, T. J.; Alley, R. B.; Blumsack, S.; Keller, K.; Feineman, M. D.

    2013-12-01

    We are in the final stages of developing a Massive Open Online Course entitled Energy, the Environment, and Our Future. The course is a broad overview of the implications of the current energy options on Earth's climate and the choices for more sustainable energy sources in the future. The course is founded in concepts explored in the book and PBS series Earth: The Operators' Manual, but it includes more in-depth treatment of renewable energy as well as the ethical issues surrounding energy choices. One of the key aspects of the course is that it is being designed to be taught in two formats, the first, an eight week MOOC through Coursera in Fall semester 2013, and the second, a 16 week online course developed as part of the NSF Geo-STEP InTeGrate program and offered through the Penn State World Campus. The advantage of the MOOC format is the ability to reach out to thousands of students worldwide, exposing them to the science behind important issues that may have a direct impact on the lifestyle decisions they make, while the World Campus course allows us to explore deeper levels of cognition through application of carefully designed pedagogies. The principal difference between the two versions of the course will be assessment. The MOOC will have embedded assessment between pages and end of module quizzes. The InTeGrate course will have a range of assessments that are directly linked to the goals and objectives of the course. These will include active learning exercises built around energy and climate data. Both of the versions are works in progress and we anticipate modifying them regularly based on student feedback.

  12. Common or multiple futures for end of life care around the world? Ideas from the 'waiting room of history'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaman, Shahaduz; Inbadas, Hamilton; Whitelaw, Alexander; Clark, David

    2017-01-01

    Around the world there is growing interest in the manner in which care is delivered to people at the end of life. However, there is little unanimity on what constitutes a 'good death' and the appropriate societal responses to the issue of delivering culturally relevant and sustainable forms of end of life care in different settings are not subjects of broad agreement. In this critical conceptual paper we focus on the emerging narratives of global palliative care and offer an assessment of their implications. We relate this to calls to improve end of life care across jurisdictions and settings, attempts to map and grade the development of palliative care provision, and to the emergence of a widely recognised global 'quality of death index'. We consider an alternative approach to framing this debate, drawn from a subaltern and post-colonial studies perspective and suggest that adopting a truly global perspective will require acceptance of the plurality of past and present local problems and issues relating to end of life care, as well as the plural possibilities of how they might be overcome. In that context, we would not aim to universalise or privilege one particular global future for end of life care. Instead of homogenising end of life interventions, we seek to be open to multiple futures for the care of the dying.

  13. The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; Mordecai, Erin A.

    2016-01-01

    Now-outdated estimates proposed that climate change should have increased the number of people at risk of malaria, yet malaria and several other infectious diseases have declined. Although some diseases have increased as the climate has warmed, evidence for widespread climate-driven disease expansion has not materialized, despite increased research attention. Biological responses to warming depend on the non-linear relationships between physiological performance and temperature, called the thermal response curve. This leads performance to rise and fall with temperature. Under climate change, host species and their associated parasites face extinction if they cannot either thermoregulate or adapt by shifting phenology or geographic range. Climate change might also affect disease transmission through increases or decreases in host susceptibility and infective stage (and vector) production, longevity, and pathology. Many other factors drive disease transmission, especially economics, and some change in time along with temperature, making it hard to distinguish whether temperature drives disease or just correlates with disease drivers. Although it is difficult to predict how climate change will affect infectious disease, an ecological approach can help meet the challenge. PMID:27610227

  14. The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin D. Lafferty

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Now-outdated estimates proposed that climate change should have increased the number of people at risk of malaria, yet malaria and several other infectious diseases have declined. Although some diseases have increased as the climate has warmed, evidence for widespread climate-driven disease expansion has not materialized, despite increased research attention. Biological responses to warming depend on the non-linear relationships between physiological performance and temperature, called the thermal response curve. This leads performance to rise and fall with temperature. Under climate change, host species and their associated parasites face extinction if they cannot either thermoregulate or adapt by shifting phenology or geographic range. Climate change might also affect disease transmission through increases or decreases in host susceptibility and infective stage (and vector production, longevity, and pathology. Many other factors drive disease transmission, especially economics, and some change in time along with temperature, making it hard to distinguish whether temperature drives disease or just correlates with disease drivers. Although it is difficult to predict how climate change will affect infectious disease, an ecological approach can help meet the challenge.

  15. Preparing for a Warmer World: Towards a Global Governance System to Protect Climate Refugees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biermann, F.; Boas, I.J.C.

    2010-01-01

    human history. Millions of people, largely in Africa and Asia, might be forced to leave their homes to seek refuge in other places or countries over the course of the century. Yet the current institutions, organizations, and funding mechanisms are not sufficiently equipped to deal with this looming

  16. Preparing for a Warmer World: Towards a Global Governance System to Protect Climate Refugees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biermann, F.; Boas, I.J.C.

    2010-01-01

    human history. Millions of people, largely in Africa and Asia, might be forced to leave their homes to seek refuge in other places or countries over the course of the century. Yet the current institutions, organizations, and funding mechanisms are not sufficiently equipped to deal with this looming

  17. The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; Mordecai, Erin A.

    2016-01-01

    Now-outdated estimates proposed that climate change should have increased the number of people at risk of malaria, yet malaria and several other infectious diseases have declined. Although some diseases have increased as the climate has warmed, evidence for widespread climate-driven disease expansion has not materialized, despite increased research attention. Biological responses to warming depend on the non-linear relationships between physiological performance and temperature, called the thermal response curve. This leads performance to rise and fall with temperature. Under climate change, host species and their associated parasites face extinction if they cannot either thermoregulate or adapt by shifting phenology or geographic range. Climate change might also affect disease transmission through increases or decreases in host susceptibility and infective stage (and vector) production, longevity, and pathology. Many other factors drive disease transmission, especially economics, and some change in time along with temperature, making it hard to distinguish whether temperature drives disease or just correlates with disease drivers. Although it is difficult to predict how climate change will affect infectious disease, an ecological approach can help meet the challenge.

  18. Realizing the impacts of a 1.5 °C warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Daniel; James, Rachel; Forster, Piers M.; Betts, Richard A.; Shiogama, Hideo; Allen, Myles

    2016-08-01

    The academic community could make rapid progress on quantifying the impacts of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, but a refocusing of research priorities is needed in order to provide reliable advice.

  19. Defining future directions for endometriosis research: workshop report from the 2011 World Congress of Endometriosis In Montpellier, France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Peter A W; D'Hooghe, Thomas M; Fazleabas, Asgerally; Giudice, Linda C; Montgomery, Grant W; Petraglia, Felice; Taylor, Robert N

    2013-05-01

    Endometriosis, defined as estrogen-dependent lesions containing endometrial glands and stroma outside the uterus, is a chronic and often painful gynecological condition that affects 6% to 10% of reproductive age women. Endometriosis has estimated annual costs of US $12 419 per woman (approximately €9579), comprising one-third of the direct health care costs with two-thirds attributed to loss of productivity. Decreased quality of life is the most important predictor of direct health care and total costs. It has been estimated that there is a mean delay of 6.7 years between onset of symptoms and a surgical diagnosis of endometriosis, and each affected woman loses on average 10.8 hours of work weekly, mainly owing to reduced effectiveness while working. To encourage and facilitate research into this debilitating disease, a consensus workshop to define future directions for endometriosis research was held as part of the 11th World Congress on Endometriosis in September 2011 in Montpellier, France. The objective of this workshop was to review and update the endometriosis research priorities consensus statement developed following the 10th World Congress on Endometriosis in 2008.(1) A total of 56 recommendations for research have been developed, grouped under 6 subheadings: (1) diagnosis, (2) classification and prognosis, (3) clinical trials, treatment, and outcomes, (4) epidemiology, (5) pathophysiology, and (6) research policy. By producing this consensus international research priorities statement, it is the hope of the workshop participants that researchers will be encouraged to develop new interdisciplinary research proposals that will attract increased funding support for work on endometriosis.

  20. Responsibility for the future of the world-paradigm shift in the theory and practice of marketing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gábor Rekettye

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available En las últimas cuatro décadas muchos estudios científicos fueron publicados sobre los impactos medioambientales que amenazan el futuro de nuestro planeta. Estas manifestaciones apenas han afectado el área de marketing, no ha habido ningún cambio paradigmático. La primera parte del artículo trata de los procesos climáticos que amenazan el medio ambiente y la vida cotidiana de la población, y que pueden ser importantes para la formación del futuro del marketing. Hay una relación estrecha entre el cambio climático y el consumismo que estimula la investigación sobre la responsabilidad y la sostenibilidad del consumo. La segunda parte del artículo trata de esbozar las nuevas tendencias posibles en la teoría y en la práctica del marketing que son necesarias para enfrentar las cambiantes necesidades medioambientales.In the last four decades quite a lot of scientific studies have been published about those dangerous signs which threaten the future of our world. These manifests have only slightly affected the field of marketing; no paradigm shift has taken place. The first part of the paper deals with climate processes threatening the environment and the everyday life of the population, and which may be important in shaping the future of marketing. There is a strong relation between climate change and consumerism enforcing the research about the responsibility and sustainability of consumption. The second part of the study tries to outline those possible new trends in the theory and practice of marketing which are necessary to meet the changing environmental needs.

  1. Intense precipitation extremes in a warmer climate: results from CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    scoccimarro, enrico; gualdi, silvio; bellucci, alessio; zampieri, matteo; navarra, antonio

    2013-04-01

    In this work the authors investigate possible changes in the intensity of extreme precipitation events under a warmer climate, using the results of a set of 20 climate models taking part to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 effort (CMIP5). Future changes are evaluated as the epoch difference between the last four decades of the 21st and the 20th Century assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario. As a measure of the intensity associated with extreme precipitation events, we use the difference between the 99th and the 90th percentiles. Despite a slight tendency to underestimate the observed extreme precipitation intensity, the considered CMIP5 models well represent the observed patterns during both summer and winter seasons for the 1997-2005 period. Future changes in average precipitation are consistent with previous findings based on CMIP3 models. CMIP5 models show a projected increase for the end of the twenty-first century of the intensity of the extreme precipitations, particularly pronounced over India, South East Asia, Indonesia and Central Africa during boreal summer, as well as over South America and the southern Africa during boreal winter. These changes are consistent with a strong increase of the column integrated water content availability over the afore mentioned regions.

  2. THEORY OF CREATION AND THE GENETIC INTEGRITY OF THE WORLD – THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY BASIS OF IDEOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. A. Astafyev

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Article describes one of the most difficult problems – the Theory of genetic energy-information unity of the World, according to which the World is the single entity hierarchically organized and directed by the World Creator, appearance of the Creator and creation by Him the Basic Genome of the World (BGW. The integral-dynamic formula of the BGW is described. The World Genome manifests the basic idea of the evolution: it is the code for structural and functional organization and evolution of all entities. The World Genome forms the General Laws of the World. The Theory of genetic energy-information unity of the World is proved the general idea – modern crisis can be transformed by realization of genetic energyinformation unity of the World-Natura-Man.

  3. The evolution of human rights in World Health Organization policy and the future of human rights through global health governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, B M; Onzivu, W

    2014-02-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) was intended to serve at the forefront of efforts to realize human rights to advance global health, and yet this promise of a rights-based approach to health has long been threatened by political constraints in international relations, organizational resistance to legal discourses, and medical ambivalence toward human rights. Through legal research on international treaty obligations, historical research in the WHO organizational archives, and interview research with global health stakeholders, this research examines WHO's contributions to (and, in many cases, negligence of) the rights-based approach to health. Based upon such research, this article analyzes the evolving role of WHO in the development and implementation of human rights for global health, reviews the current state of human rights leadership in the WHO Secretariat, and looks to future institutions to reclaim the mantle of human rights as a normative framework for global health governance. Copyright © 2013 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The Shi'ites, the West and the Future of Democracy: Reframing Political Change in a Religio-secular World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A Rees

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available The present article critically reviews Paul McGeough’s important analysis of the most recent Iraq war within a broader consideration of secular-religious relations in international affairs. The thesis of Mission Impossible: The Sheikhs, the US and the Future of Iraq (2004 can be summarised around two ideas: that the US strategy in Iraq was flawed because it wilfully bypassed the traditional power structures of Iraqi society; and that these structures, formed around the tribe and the mosque, are anti-democratic thus rendering attempts at democratisation impossible. The article affirms McGeough’s argument concerning the inadequacy of the US strategy, but critically examines the author’s fatalism toward the democratic capacity of Iraqi structures, notably the structure of the mosque. By broadening the notion of democracy to include religious actors and agendas, and by an introductory interpretation of the Shi’ite community as vital players in an emerging Iraqi democracy, the article attempts to deconstruct the author’s secularist view that the world of the mosque exists in a ‘parallel universe’ to the liberal democratic West. Reframing the Shi’ites as essential actors in the democratic project thus situates political discourse in a ‘religio-secular world’ and brings the ‘other worlds’ of religion and secularism together in a sphere of interdependence. Such an approach emphasises the importance of post-secular structures in the discourses on democratic change.

  5. Global surgery for pediatric hydrocephalus in the developing world: a review of the history, challenges, and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muir, Ryan T; Wang, Shelly; Warf, Benjamin C

    2016-11-01

    OBJECTIVE Pediatric hydrocephalus is one of the most common neurosurgical conditions and is a major contributor to the global burden of surgically treatable diseases. Significant health disparities exist for the treatment of hydrocephalus in developing nations due to a combination of medical, environmental, and socioeconomic factors. This review aims to provide the international neurosurgery community with an overview of the current challenges and future directions of neurosurgical care for children with hydrocephalus in low-income countries. METHODS The authors conducted a literature review around the topic of pediatric hydrocephalus in the context of global surgery, the unique challenges to creating access to care in low-income countries, and current international efforts to address the problem. RESULTS Developing countries face the greatest burden of pediatric hydrocephalus due to high birth rates and greater risk of neonatal infections. This burden is related to more general global health challenges, including malnutrition, infectious diseases, maternal and perinatal risk factors, and education gaps. Unique challenges pertaining to the treatment of hydrocephalus in the developing world include a preponderance of postinfectious hydrocephalus, limited resources, and restricted access to neurosurgical care. In the 21st century, several organizations have established programs that provide hydrocephalus treatment and neurosurgical training in Africa, Central and South America, Haiti, and Southeast Asia. These international efforts have employed various models to achieve the goals of providing safe, sustainable, and cost-effective treatment. CONCLUSIONS Broader commitment from the pediatric neurosurgery community, increased funding, public education, surgeon training, and ongoing surgical innovation will be needed to meaningfully address the global burden of untreated hydrocephalus.

  6. A much warmer Earth surface for most of geologic time: implications to biotic weathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartzman, D. W.; McMenamin, M.

    1993-01-01

    The authors present two scenarios for the temperature history of Earth. One scenario is conventional, the other relies on a warmer history. Both scenarios include surface cooling determined by the evolution of the biosphere and are similar until the Proterozoic period. The warmer scenario requires a higher plant/lichen terrestrial biota to increase weathering intensity. Justification for a warmer surface includes period temperatures from the oxygen isotope record of coexisting phosphates and cherts, an upper limit of 58 degrees C from primary gypsum precipitation, and the lack of fractionation of sulfur isotopes between sulfide and sulfates in Archean sediments.

  7. A much warmer Earth surface for most of geologic time: implications to biotic weathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartzman, D. W.; McMenamin, M.

    1993-01-01

    The authors present two scenarios for the temperature history of Earth. One scenario is conventional, the other relies on a warmer history. Both scenarios include surface cooling determined by the evolution of the biosphere and are similar until the Proterozoic period. The warmer scenario requires a higher plant/lichen terrestrial biota to increase weathering intensity. Justification for a warmer surface includes period temperatures from the oxygen isotope record of coexisting phosphates and cherts, an upper limit of 58 degrees C from primary gypsum precipitation, and the lack of fractionation of sulfur isotopes between sulfide and sulfates in Archean sediments.

  8. Teleconnections in a warmer climate: the pliocene perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shukla, Sonali P. [Columbia University, Deptartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States); Chandler, Mark A.; Sohl, Linda E.; Jonas, Jeff; Lerner, Jean [Columbia University, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY (United States); Rind, David [National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)

    2011-11-15

    Migrations toward altered sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the Indo-Pacific region are present in the recent observational record and in future global warming projections. These SSTs are in the form of ''permanent'' El Nino-like (herein termed ''El Padre'') and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-like patterns. The Early Pliocene Warm Period, which bears similarity to future warming projections, may have also exhibited these Indo-Pacific SST patterns, as suggested by regional terrestrial paleo-climatic data and general circulation model studies. The ability to corroborate this assessment with paleo-data reconstructions is an advantage of the warm Pliocene period that is not afforded by future warming scenarios. Thus, the Pliocene period provides us with a warm-climate perspective and test bed for understanding potential changes to future atmospheric interactions given these altered SST states. This study specifically assesses how atmospheric teleconnections from El Padre/IOD SST patterns are generated and propagate to create the regional climate signals of the Pliocene period, as these signals may be representative of future regional climatic changes as well. To do this, we construct a holistic diagnostic rubric that allows us to examine atmospheric teleconnections, both energetically and dynamically, as produced by a general circulation model. We incorporate KE', a diagnostic adapted from the eddy kinetic energy generation field, to assess the available energy transferred to these teleconnections. Using this methodology, we found that relative to our Modern Control experiments, weaker atmospheric teleconnections prevail under warm Pliocene conditions, although pathways of propagation still appear directed toward the southwestern United States from our tropical Pacific sector forcing. Propagation directly emanating from the Indian Ocean forcing sector appears to be largely blocked, although indirect teleconnective

  9. Rapid evolution of parasite resistance in a warmer environment: insights from a large scale field experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateos-Gonzalez, Fernando; Sundström, L Fredrik; Schmid, Marian; Björklund, Mats

    2015-01-01

    Global climate change is expected to have major effects on host-parasite dynamics, with potentially enormous consequences for entire ecosystems. To develop an accurate prognostic framework, theoretical models must be supported by empirical research. We investigated potential changes in host-parasite dynamics between a fish parasite, the eyefluke Diplostomum baeri, and an intermediate host, the European perch Perca fluviatilis, in a large-scale semi-enclosed area in the Baltic Sea, the Biotest Lake, which since 1980 receives heated water from a nuclear power plant. Two sample screenings, in two consecutive years, showed that fish from the warmer Biotest Lake were now less parasitized than fish from the Baltic Sea. These results are contrasting previous screenings performed six years after the temperature change, which showed the inverse situation. An experimental infection, by which perch from both populations were exposed to D. baeri from the Baltic Sea, revealed that perch from the Baltic Sea were successfully infected, while Biotest fish were not. These findings suggest that the elevated temperature may have resulted, among other outcomes, in an extremely rapid evolutionary change through which fish from the experimental Biotest Lake have gained resistance to the parasite. Our results confirm the need to account for both rapid evolutionary adaptation and biotic interactions in predictive models, and highlight the importance of empirical research in order to validate future projections.

  10. 75 FR 57545 - The Future of Aviation Advisory Committee (FAAC) Subcommittee on Labor and World-Class Workforce...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-21

    ... in light of the changing socio-economic dynamics of the world's technologically advanced economies... Performance and Organizational Success, Office of the Assistant Administrator for Human Resources,...

  11. Pressure Infusion Cuff and Blood Warmer during Massive Transfusion: An Experimental Study About Hemolysis and Hypothermia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poder, Thomas G; Pruneau, Denise; Dorval, Josée; Thibault, Louis; Fisette, Jean-François; Bédard, Suzanne K; Jacques, Annie; Beauregard, Patrice

    2016-01-01

    Blood warmers were developed to reduce the risk of hypothermia associated with the infusion of cold blood products. During massive transfusion, these devices are used with compression sleeve, which induce a major stress to red blood cells. In this setting, the combination of blood warmer and compression sleeve could generate hemolysis and harm the patient. We conducted this study to compare the impact of different pressure rates on the hemolysis of packed red blood cells and on the outlet temperature when a blood warmer set at 41.5°C is used. Pressure rates tested were 150 and 300 mmHg. Ten packed red blood cells units were provided by Héma-Québec and each unit was sequentially tested. We found no increase in hemolysis either at 150 or 300 mmHg. By cons, we found that the blood warmer was not effective at warming the red blood cells at the specified temperature. At 150 mmHg, the outlet temperature reached 37.1°C and at 300 mmHg, the temperature was 33.7°C. To use a blood warmer set at 41.5°C in conjunction with a compression sleeve at 150 or 300 mmHg does not generate hemolysis. At 300 mmHg a blood warmer set at 41.5°C does not totally avoid a risk of hypothermia.

  12. 75 FR 67805 - The Future of Aviation Advisory Committee (FAAC) Subcommittee on Labor and World-Class Workforce...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-03

    ... socio-economic dynamics of the world's technologically advanced economies. Among other matters, the... National Mediation Board to help improve the collective bargaining process in the airline industry. DATES...

  13. Stochastic dynamics of a warmer Great Barrier Reef.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Jennifer K; Spencer, Matthew; Bruno, John F

    2015-07-01

    Pressure on natural communities from human activities continues to increase. Even unique ecosystems like the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), that until recently were considered near-pristine and well-protected, are showing signs of rapid degradation. We collated recent (1996-2006) spatiotemporal relationships between benthic community composition on the GBR and environmental variables (ocean temperature and local threats resulting from human activity). We built multivariate models of the effects of these variables on short-term dynamics, and developed an analytical approach to study their long-term consequences. We used this approach to study the effects of ocean warming under different levels of local threat. Observed short-term changes in benthic community structure (e.g., declining coral cover) were associated with ocean temperature (warming) and local threats. Our model projected that, in the long-term, coral cover of less than 10% was not implausible. With increasing temperature and/or local threats, corals were initially replaced by sponges, gorgonians, and other taxa, with an eventual moderately high probability of domination (> 50%) by macroalgae when temperature increase was greatest (e.g., 3.5 degrees C of warming). Our approach to modeling community dynamics, based on multivariate statistical models, enabled us to project how environmental change (and thus local and international policy decisions) will influence the future state of coral reefs. The same approach could be applied to other systems for which time series of ecological and environmental variables are available.

  14. New Ways to Promote Sustainability and Social Well-Being in a Complex, Strongly Interdependent World: The FuturICT Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Helbing, Dirk

    2013-01-01

    FuturICT is one of six proposals currently being considered for support within the European Commission's Flagship Initiative (see Box 1). The vision of the FuturICT project is to develop new science and new information and communication systems that will promote social self-organization, self-regulation, well-being, sustainability, and resilience. One of the main aims of the approach is to increase individual opportunities for social, economic and political participation, combined with the creation of collective awareness of the impact that human actions have on our world. This requires us to mine large datasets ("Big Data") and to develop new methods and tools: a Planetary Nervous System (PNS) to answer "What is (the state of the world)..." questions, a Living Earth Simulator (LES) to study "What ... if ..." scenarios, and a Global Participatory Platform (GPP) for social exploration and interaction.

  15. In-line pressure within a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer, under various flow conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higashi, Midoriko; Yamaura, Ken; Matsubara, Yukie; Fukudome, Takuya; Hoka, Sumio

    2015-04-01

    Roller pump infusion devices are widely used for rapid infusion, and may be combined with separate warming devices. There may be instances however, where the pressures generated by the roller pump may not be compatible with the warming device. We assessed a commonly used roller pump in combination with a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer, and found that it could generate pressures exceeding the HOTLINE® manufacturers specifications. This was of concern because the HOTLINE® manufacturer guideline states that not for use with pressure devices generating over 300 mmHg. Pressure greater than 300 mmHg may compromise the integrity of the HOTLINE® Fluid Warming Set. The aim of this study was to compare in-line pressure within a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer at different infusion rates of a roller pump using various sizes of intravenous cannulae. The rapid infusion system comprised a 500 mL-normal saline bag, roller pump type infusion device, HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer (blood and fluid warmer system), and six different sizes of intravenous cannulae. In-line pressure was measured proximal to the HOTLINE® (pre-warmer) and proximal to the cannula (post-warmer), at flow rate of 50-160 mL/min. The in-line pressures increased significantly with increasing flow rate. The pre-warmer pressures exceeded 300 mmHg when the flow rate was ≥120 mL/min with 20-gauge, 48 mm length cannula, 130 with 20-gauge, 25 mm cannula, and 160 mL/min with 18-gauge, 48 mm cannula. However, they were HOTLINE® could exceed 300 mmHg, depending on the flow rate and size and length of cannula. It is important to pay attention to the size and length of cannulae and flow rate to keep the maximum in-line pressure<300 mmHg when a roller pump type infusion device is used.

  16. Warmer weather linked to tick attack and emergence of severe rickettsioses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Parola

    Full Text Available The impact of climate on the vector behaviour of the worldwide dog tick Rhipicephalus sanguineus is a cause of concern. This tick is a vector for life-threatening organisms including Rickettsia rickettsii, the agent of Rocky Mountain spotted fever, R. conorii, the agent of Mediterranean spotted fever, and the ubiquitous emerging pathogen R. massiliae. A focus of spotted fever was investigated in France in May 2007. Blood and tissue samples from two patients were tested. An entomological survey was organised with the study of climatic conditions. An experimental model was designed to test the affinity of Rh. sanguineus for biting humans in variable temperature conditions. Serological and/or molecular tools confirmed that one patient was infected by R. conorii, whereas the other was infected by R. massiliae. Dense populations of Rh. sanguineus were found. They were infected with new genotypes of clonal populations of either R. conorii (24/133; 18% or R. massiliae (13/133; 10%. April 2007 was the warmest since 1950, with summer-like temperatures. We show herein that the human affinity of Rh. sanguineus was increased in warmer temperatures. In addition to the originality of theses cases (ophthalmic involvements, the second reported case of R. massiliae infection, we provide evidence that this cluster of cases was related to a warming-mediated increase in the aggressiveness of Rh. sanguineus, leading to increased human attacks. From a global perspective, we predict that as a result of globalisation and warming, more pathogens transmitted by the brown dog tick may emerge in the future.

  17. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Intrasasonal Oscillations in the Indian Monsoon System in a Warmer Planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, L. V.; Jones, C.; Cannon, F.; Norris, J.

    2015-12-01

    The India summer monsoon (ISM) experiences long periods of wet and dry conditions frequently associated with floods and long dry spells. These events are largely governed by northward propagating boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO). Here we investigate intraseasonal variability of the ISM in the climate of the 20th century using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (1979-2013) and examine future scenarios of climate change using models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 project. ISM is characterized with a large-scale index obtained by performing combined EOF analysis of precipitation, low level circulation, specific humidity and temperature. This index realistically defines the monsoon's onset and withdrawal, is well correlated with seasonal precipitation in India and exhibits variance on intraseasonal timescales that are related to MISO and extreme wet and dry conditions in India. With similar approach we investigate the skill of the CMIP5 models in realistically simulating MISO in the 'historic' run (1951-2005) and examine projected changes in the amplitude and persistence these events in the high-emission representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) (2006-2100). MISO is well characterized in CMIP5 models that indicate significant increase in the intensity and frequency of extremely dry and wet conditions affecting India by 2050. We show that the main mechanism driving MISO in CMIP5 models are linked to the propagation of extratropical wave trains and interactions with the tropics. In a warmer planet, the increase in polar temperatures weakens the tropical-extratropical temperature gradient and decreases the intensity of the upper tropospheric jet. These changes in the jet and in the baroclinic structure of the atmosphere result in enhanced extratropical wave activity and more extreme events. We use a wave tracking algorithm to demonstrate these differences and explore physical and dynamical mechanisms underlying

  18. Future Changes in Heat Stress over East Asia Resulting from Different Target Temperature Increases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sang-Min; Min, Seung-Ki

    2017-04-01

    In assessing the impact of global warming, it is very important to understand the change in comprehensive heat stress as a function of several variables, rather than only temperature. Furthermore, in order to assess and implement the target temperature goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, it is essential to have effective and scientifically valid information to predict and measure regional impact. In this study, the future changes in summer heat stress over East Asia were examined based on the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) using CMIP5 multimodel simulations (historical and RCP scenario simulations), and differences in heat stress changes were assessed between 1.5-degree and 2-degree warmer worlds. Future boreal summer heat stress of land regions over East Asia, in excess of the 50-year return value, shows a rapid and nonlinear increase from the 2000s, and it is expected that severe heat stress will occur in the overall East Asia region by the 2040s. In particular, extreme heat stress events were found to occur much more frequently than summer mean intensity of heat stress. Comparisons of the increase in heat stress between 1.5-degree and 2-degree warmer worlds indicated a 20% decrease in the area experiencing severe heat stress over East Asia, and relatively large benefits (i.e. less frequent and less severe heat stress) were found in the southeastern China, the Korean Peninsula and Japan compared to other regions. Further, the equilibrium scenarios showed a larger increase in heat stress over East Asia than the transient scenarios, particularly in case of the 1.5-degree warmer world, which was found due to warmer water in the northwestern North Pacific in the equilibrium scenarios.

  19. Indigenous Peoples of the World: An Introduction to Their Past, Present, and Future. Purich's Aboriginal Issues Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goehring, Brian

    Suitable for introductory courses on indigenous peoples, this book analyzes the effects of industrial capitalism and modernity on indigenous people and their economies. Specifically, the book traces world history and synthesizes common themes regarding the detrimental effects of European expansionism on indigenous populations. Currently, there are…

  20. The energy future in the world at the 21. century; L'avenir energetique mondial au 21. siecle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frot, J

    2006-04-15

    After a presentation of the world context of the energy consumption (the growth, the petroleum and the natural gas last, the greenhouse effect gases impacts on the climate), and the today research and development domains in the energy sector (petroleum, gas, generation IV nuclear reactors, carbon sequestration, renewable energies, hydrogen, energy storage), the author examines, using 4 scenario, the margins of action, the energy efficiency, the Gross Domestic Product de-materialization and the costs. Then he discusses the hopes and problems in the domains of the transports and the carbon sequestration. A special attention is devoted to the energy efficiency importance. (A.L.B.)

  1. Wildlife as reservoirs for vector borne diseases in a warmer Scandinavian climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Rene; Kristensen, Birgit

    The distribution of vector borne diseases is highly determined by environmental and climatic parameters. As the climate becomes warmer the potential for spread of exotic vector borne diseases may therefore increase in the Nordic countries. But this does not mean that all new outbreaks of diseases...

  2. Experimental Study of Isothermal Plate Uniformity for Blood Warmer Development using Geothermal Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrarsakti, J.; Ichsan, Y.

    2016-09-01

    This research was conducted to assess the direct use of geothermal energy for blood warmer. The heating plate was made form aluminium plates with dimensions of 100 x 200 mm and then fed from the hot water heater. Tests were conducted in the laboratory where geothermal source water is replaced with the heat generated from the heater. The hot water from the heater in the temperature range 55°C - 60°C flowed into vertical chamber. Setting the temperature of the hot water heater is done by changing the flow of hot water coming out of the heater. Results showed that the value of a standard deviation of plate temperature was about 0.42 °C, so it can be said isothermal accordance with design requirement and objective. The test data used for the analysis of the manufacture of the heating plate in the blood warmer to regulate the discharge of hot water at intervals of 21.47 mL/s to 24.8 mL/s to obtain a temperature of 37.20 °C - 40.15 °C. Geothermal energy has the potential for blood warmer because blood warmer is part of the energy cascade in a temperature range of 40°C to 60°C

  3. When worlds collide: medicine, business, the Affordable Care Act and the future of health care in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wicks, Andrew C; Keevil, Adrian A C

    2014-01-01

    The dialogue about the future of health care in the US has been impeded by flawed conceptions about medicine and business. The present paper re-examines some of the underlying assumptions about both medicine and business, and uses more nuanced readings of both terms to frame debates about the ACA and the emerging health care environment. © 2014 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.

  4. Integrating Nuclear and Renewable Electricity in a Low-Carbon World: MIT-Japan Future of Nuclear Power Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haratyk, Geoffrey; Komiyama, Ryoichi; Forsberg, Charles; Fujii, Yasumasa; Omoto, Akira; Taniguchi, Tomihiro; Curtis, Daniel; Sepulveda, Nestor

    2017-01-01

    Affordable reliable energy made possible a large middle class in the industrial world. Concerns about climate change require a transition to nuclear, wind, and solar—but these energy sources in current forms do not have the capability to meet the requirements for variable affordable energy. Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of Tokyo, the Tokyo Institute of Technology and the Institute for Energy Economics are undertaking a series of studies to address how to make this transition to a low carbon world. Three areas are being investigated. The first area is the development of electricity grid models to understand the impacts of different choices of technologies and different limits on greenhouse gas emissions. The second area is the development of technologies to enable variable electricity to the grid while capital-intensive nuclear, wind and solar generating plants operate at full capacity to minimize costs. Technologies to enable meeting variable electricity demand while operating plants at high-capacity factors include use of heat and hydrogen storage. The third area is the development of electricity market rules to enable transition to a low-carbon grid.

  5. Biases in simulation of the rice phenology models when applied in warmer climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, T.; Li, T.; Yang, X.; Simelton, E.

    2015-12-01

    The current model inter-comparison studies highlight the difference in projections between crop models when they are applied to warmer climates, but these studies do not provide results on how the accuracy of the models would change in these projections because the adequate observations under largely diverse growing season temperature (GST) are often unavailable. Here, we investigate the potential changes in the accuracy of rice phenology models when these models were applied to a significantly warmer climate. We collected phenology data from 775 trials with 19 cultivars in 5 Asian countries (China, India, Philippines, Bangladesh and Thailand). Each cultivar encompasses the phenology observations under diverse GST regimes. For a given rice cultivar in different trials, the GST difference reaches 2.2 to 8.2°C, which allows us to calibrate the models under lower GST and validate under higher GST (i.e., warmer climates). Four common phenology models representing major algorithms on simulations of rice phenology, and three model calibration experiments were conducted. The results suggest that the bilinear and beta models resulted in gradually increasing phenology bias (Figure) and double yield bias per percent increase in phenology bias, whereas the growing-degree-day (GDD) and exponential models maintained a comparatively constant bias when applied in warmer climates (Figure). Moreover, the bias of phenology estimated by the bilinear and beta models did not reduce with increase in GST when all data were used to calibrate models. These suggest that variations in phenology bias are primarily attributed to intrinsic properties of the respective phenology model rather than on the calibration dataset. Therefore we conclude that using the GDD and exponential models has more chances of predicting rice phenology correctly and thus, production under warmer climates, and result in effective agricultural strategic adaptation to and mitigation of climate change.

  6. Effect of warming and flow rate conditions of blood warmers on red blood cell integrity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poder, T G; Pruneau, D; Dorval, J; Thibault, L; Fisette, J-F; Bédard, S K; Jacques, A; Beauregard, P

    2016-11-01

    Fluid warmers are routinely used to reduce the risk of hypothermia and cardiac complications associated with the infusion of cold blood products. However, warming blood products could generate haemolysis. This study was undertaken to compare the impact of temperature of blood warmers on the per cent haemolysis of packed red blood cells (RBCs) heated at different flow rates as well as non-flow conditions. Infusion warmers used were calibrated at 41·5°C ± 0·5°C and 37·5°C ± 0·5°C. Cold RBC units stored at 4°C in AS-3 (n = 30), aged 30-39 days old, were divided into half units before being allocated under two different scenarios (i.e. infusion pump or syringe). Blood warmers were effective to warm cold RBCs to 37·5°C or 41·5°C when used in conjunction with an infusion pump at flow rate up to 600 ml/h. However, when the warmed blood was held in a syringe for various periods of time, such as may occur in neonatal transfusions, the final temperature was below the expected requirements with measurement as low as 33·1°C. Increasing the flow with an infusion pump increased haemolysis in RBCs from 0·2% to up to 2·1% at a flow rate of 600 ml/h regardless of the warming device used (P < 0·05). No relevant increase of haemolysis was observed using a syringe. The use of a blood warmer adjusted to 41·5°C is probably the best choice for reducing the risk of hypothermia for the patient without generating haemolysis. However, we should be cautious with the use of an infusion pump for RBC transfusion, particularly at high flow rates. © 2016 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  7. Can latent heat safely warm blood? – in vitro testing of a portable prototype blood warmer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McEwen Mark P

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Trauma/retrieval patients are often in shock and hypothermic. Treatment of such patients usually involves restoring their blood volume with transfusion of blood (stored at 2°C – 6°C and/or crystalloids or colloids (stored at ambient temperature. Rapid infusion of these cold fluids can worsen or even induce hypothermia in these patients. Warming of intravenous fluids at accident sites has traditionally been difficult due to a lack of suitable portable fluid warmers that are not dependent on mains electrical or battery power. If latent heat, the heat released when a liquid solidifies (an inherently temperature limiting process can warm intravenous fluids, portable devices without a reliance on electrical energy could be used to reduce the incidence of hypothermia in trauma patients. Methods Rapid infusion of red cells into patients was timed to sample typical clinical flow rates. An approved dry heat blood warmer was compared with a prototype blood warmer using a supercooled liquid latent heat storage material, to warm red cells whilst monitoring inlet and outlet temperatures. To determine the effect of warming on red cell integrity compared to the normal storage lesion of blood, extracellular concentrations of potassium, lactate dehydrogenase and haemoglobin were measured in blood which had been warmed after storage at 2°C – 6°C for 1 to 42 days. Results A prototype latent heat fluid warmer consistently warmed red cells from approximately 4°C to approximately 35°C at typical clinical flow rates. Warming of stored blood with latent heat did not affect red cell integrity more than the approved dry heat blood warmer. Conclusion Using latent heat as an energy source can satisfactorily warm cold blood or other intravenous fluids to near body temperature, without any adverse affects.

  8. Envisioning Nano Release Dynamics in a Changing World: Using Dynamic Probabilistic Modeling to Assess Future Environmental Emissions of Engineered Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Tian Yin; Mitrano, Denise M; Bornhöft, Nikolaus A; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad; Nowack, Bernd

    2017-02-16

    The need for an environmental risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials (ENM) necessitates the knowledge about their environmental emissions. Material flow models (MFA) have been used to provide predicted environmental emissions but most current nano-MFA models consider neither the rapid development of ENM production nor the fact that a large proportion of ENM are entering an in-use stock and are released from products over time (i.e., have a lag phase). Here we use dynamic probabilistic material flow modeling to predict scenarios of the future flows of four ENM (nano-TiO2, nano-ZnO, nano-Ag and CNT) to environmental compartments and to quantify their amounts in (temporary) sinks such as the in-use stock and ("final") environmental sinks such as soil and sediment. In these scenarios, we estimate likely future amounts if the use and distribution of ENM in products continues along current trends (i.e., a business-as-usual approach) and predict the effect of hypothetical trends in the market development of nanomaterials, such as the emergence of a new widely used product or the ban on certain substances, on the flows of nanomaterials to the environment in years to come. We show that depending on the scenario and the product type affected, significant changes of the flows occur over time, driven by the growth of stocks and delayed release dynamics.

  9. A virtual observatory in a real world: building capacity for an uncertain future - the UK pVO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurney, R. J.; Tetzlaff, D.; Freer, J. E.; Emmett, B.; McDonald, A.; Rees, G.; Buytaert, W.; Blair, G.; Haygarth, P.

    2010-12-01

    The scientific community, environmental managers and policy makers face a challenging future trying to accommodate growing expectations of environmental well-being, while subject to maturing regulation, constrained budgets and a public scrutiny that expects easier and more meaningful access to data and knowledge. The pilot Virtual Observatory (pVO) is a new initiative funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) designed to deliver proof of concept for novel tools and approaches. During an initial phase, the pVO aims to first evaluate the role of existing ‘observatories’ in the UK and elsewhere both to learn good practice and to define boundaries. The aim of the two year pilot project is to investigate novel methods of linking data and models and to demonstrate scenario analysis for both research and environmental management, using effective communication tools such as portals to provide cost effective answers to vital questions in the water resources / soils area. The project will exploit cloud computing to develop new applications for accessing, filtering and synthesising data to develop new knowledge and evaluation tools. As such the cloud enables the integration of a variety of information sources (including disparate data sets, sensor data and models) at different granularities and scales together with associated information services to provide both interoperability between such services and encourage the flow from data to knowledge to policy setting in the quest for answering big science questions. A wide range of possible management and environmental futures will be explored at a range of spatial and temporal scales. Novel visualisation tools will promote cross-disciplinary communication and illustrate the effects of alternative strategies and solutions.

  10. Evidence for warmer event from quartz grains in the soil of Grove Mountains, East Antarctica

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan Xin; Li Xiaoli; Liu Xiaohan; Zhang Ru-fan

    2005-01-01

    The cold desert soil has been discovered at first time in southern ridgeof Mount Harding, Grove Mountains of interior East Antarctica Ice Sheet. Based on the micro structural observation, dominant characteristics of quartz grains include: distinct surface stria and fractures, and clean features of frost action at both of crystal margins and micro crannies of quartz grains. These features show a pedogenesis environment of few water, short transportation and frost action, revealing a warmer climatic event existed in this region.

  11. Shellfish face uncertain future in high CO2 world: influence of acidification on oyster larvae calcification and growth in estuaries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Whitman Miller

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide by 36% during the past 200 years. One third of all anthropogenic CO(2 has been absorbed by the oceans, reducing pH by about 0.1 of a unit and significantly altering their carbonate chemistry. There is widespread concern that these changes are altering marine habitats severely, but little or no attention has been given to the biota of estuarine and coastal settings, ecosystems that are less pH buffered because of naturally reduced alkalinity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To address CO(2-induced changes to estuarine calcification, veliger larvae of two oyster species, the Eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica, and the Suminoe oyster (Crassostrea ariakensis were grown in estuarine water under four pCO(2 regimes, 280, 380, 560 and 800 microatm, to simulate atmospheric conditions in the pre-industrial era, present, and projected future concentrations in 50 and 100 years respectively. CO(2 manipulations were made using an automated negative feedback control system that allowed continuous and precise control over the pCO(2 in experimental aquaria. Larval growth was measured using image analysis, and calcification was measured by chemical analysis of calcium in their shells. C. virginica experienced a 16% decrease in shell area and a 42% reduction in calcium content when pre-industrial and end of 21(st century pCO(2 treatments were compared. C. ariakensis showed no change to either growth or calcification. Both species demonstrated net calcification and growth, even when aragonite was undersaturated, a result that runs counter to previous expectations for invertebrate larvae that produce aragonite shells. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Our results suggest that temperate estuarine and coastal ecosystems are vulnerable to the expected changes in water chemistry due to elevated atmospheric CO(2 and that biological responses to acidification, especially calcifying

  12. Fungi in a changing world: growth rates will be elevated, but spore production may decrease in future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damialis, Athanasios; Mohammad, Aqilah B.; Halley, John M.; Gange, Alan C.

    2015-09-01

    Very little is known about the impact of climate change on fungi and especially on spore production. Fungal spores can be allergenic, thus being important for human health. The aim of this study was to investigate how climate change influences the responsive ability of fungi by simulating differing environmental regimes. Fungal species with high spore allergenic potential and atmospheric abundance were grown and experimentally examined under a variety of temperatures and different nutrient availability. Each represented the average decadal air temperature of the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s in the UK, along with an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenario for 2100. All tests were run on six fungal species: Alternaria alternata, Aspergillus niger, Botrytis cinerea, Cladosporium cladosporioides, Cladosporium oxysporum and Epicoccum purpurascens. Mycelium growth rate and spore production were examined on each single species and competitive capacity among species combinations in pairs. All fungal species grew faster at higher temperatures, and this was more pronounced for the temperature projection in 2100. Most species grew faster when there was lower nutrient availability. Exceptions were the species with the highest growth rate ( E. purpurascens) and with the highest competition capacity ( A. alternata). Most species (except for E. purpurascens) produced more spores in the richer nutrient medium but fewer as temperature increased. C. cladosporioides was an exception, exponentially increasing its spore production in the temperature of the 2100 scenario. Regarding competitive capacity, no species displayed any significant alterations within the environmental range checked. It is suggested that in future climates, fungi will display dramatic growth responses, with faster mycelium growth and lower spore production, with questions risen on relevant allergen potential.

  13. Chemical Hand Warmer Packet Ingestion: A Case of Elemental Iron Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiland, Jessica L; Sherrow, Leighanne K; Jayant, Deepak A; Katz, Kenneth D

    2017-09-01

    For individuals who work outdoors in the winter or play winter sports, chemical hand warmers are becoming increasingly more commonplace because of their convenience and effectiveness. A 32-year-old woman with a history of chronic pain and bipolar disorder presented to the emergency department complaining of a "warm sensation" in her mouth and epigastrium after reportedly ingesting the partial contents of a chemical hand warmer packet containing between 5 and 8 g of elemental iron. She had been complaining of abdominal pain for approximately 1 month and was prescribed unknown antibiotics the previous day. The patient denied ingestion of any other product or medication other than what was prescribed. A serum iron level obtained approximately 6 hours after ingestion measured 235 micrograms/dL (reference range 40-180 micrograms/dL). As the patient demonstrated no new abdominal complaints and no evidence of systemic iron toxicity, she was discharged uneventfully after education. However, the potential for significant iron toxicity exists depending on the extent of exposure to this or similar products. Treatment for severe iron toxicity may include fluid resuscitation, whole bowel irrigation, and iron chelation therapy with deferoxamine. Physicians should become aware of the toxicity associated with ingestion of commercially available hand warmers. Consultation with a medical toxicologist is recommended. Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Honeybees prefer warmer nectar and less viscous nectar, regardless of sugar concentration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolson, Susan W; de Veer, Leo; Köhler, Angela; Pirk, Christian W W

    2013-09-22

    The internal temperature of flowers may be higher than air temperature, and warmer nectar could offer energetic advantages for honeybee thermoregulation, as well as being easier to drink owing to its lower viscosity. We investigated the responses of Apis mellifera scutellata (10 colonies) to warmed 10% w/w sucrose solutions, maintained at 20-35°C, independent of low air temperatures, and to 20% w/w sucrose solutions with the viscosity increased by the addition of the inert polysaccharide Tylose (up to the equivalent of 34.5% sucrose). Honeybee crop loads increased with nectar temperature, as did the total consumption of sucrose solutions over 2 h by all bees visiting the feeders. In addition, the preference of marked honeybees shifted towards higher nectar temperatures with successive feeder visits. Crop loads were inversely proportional to the viscosity of the artificial nectar, as was the total consumption of sucrose solutions over 2 h. Marked honeybees avoided higher nectar viscosities with successive feeder visits. Bees thus showed strong preferences for both warmer and less viscous nectar, independent of changes in its sugar concentration. Bees may benefit from foraging on nectars that are warmer than air temperature for two reasons that are not mutually exclusive: reduced thermoregulatory costs and faster ingestion times due to the lower viscosity.

  15. The Impact of a Warmer Mediterranean Sea on Central European Summer Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volosciuk, Claudia; Semenov, Vladimir; Maraun, Douglas; Latif, Mojib; Tilinina, Natalia

    2014-05-01

    Central European climate is influenced by the Mediterranean Sea, which experienced a strong increase in sea surface temperature (SST) during the last four decades. One example of extreme weather events are cyclones following the "Vb" pathway. These cyclones are generated over the Mediterranean Sea and travel northeastwards around the Alps and then hit countries like Poland and Germany. The cyclones carry large amounts of moisture and cause extreme precipitation, and subsequently flooding, particularly in summer. These floods, such as the Elbe flood in 2002, have devastating societal impacts and also influence ecosystems. To analyse the potential impact of increased Mediterranean SST on extreme precipitation in Europe, a series of simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ECHAM5 has been carried out. ECHAM5 was run at high horizontal resolution (T159) and integrated for 40 years in each experiment. The control run is forced by SST and sea ice concentration (SIC) climatology derived from 1970-1999. A warmer climate is simulated by using global climatological SST and SIC from 2000-2012. To disentangle the impact of the Mediterranean Sea, an additional simulation was performed with the same global SST and SIC as in the control run, but with the warmer 2000-2012 SST climatology restricted to the Mediterranean and Black Seas. 20-season return levels were derived as a measure of extreme precipitation for daily as well as five day precipitation in JJA (June, July, August). These return levels are estimated as quantiles of a stationary generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution. Although the increase in the number of Vb cyclones is only modest, precipitation return levels in JJA show an increase along the Vb cyclone track, for daily (up to approximately 63 %) as well as for five day (up to approximately 76 %) precipitation extremes. This increase can be attributed to the warmer Mediterranean Sea, as it is observed in both the globally warmer and

  16. Climate Twins - a tool to explore future climate impacts by assessing real world conditions: Exploration principles, underlying data, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loibl, Wolfgang; Peters-Anders, Jan; Züger, Johann

    2010-05-01

    To achieve public awareness and thorough understanding about expected climate changes and their future implications, ways have to be found to communicate model outputs to the public in a scientifically sound and easily understandable way. The newly developed Climate Twins tool tries to fulfil these requirements via an intuitively usable web application, which compares spatial patterns of current climate with future climate patterns, derived from regional climate model results. To get a picture of the implications of future climate in an area of interest, users may click on a certain location within an interactive map with underlying future climate information. A second map depicts the matching Climate Twin areas according to current climate conditions. In this way scientific output can be communicated to the public which allows for experiencing climate change through comparison with well-known real world conditions. To identify climatic coincidence seems to be a simple exercise, but the accuracy and applicability of the similarity identification depends very much on the selection of climate indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges. Too many indicators representing various climate characteristics and too narrow uncertainty ranges will judge little or no area as regions with similar climate, while too little indicators and too wide uncertainty ranges will address too large regions as those with similar climate which may not be correct. Similarity cannot be just explored by comparing mean values or by calculating correlation coefficients. As climate change triggers an alteration of various indicators, like maxima, minima, variation magnitude, frequency of extreme events etc., the identification of appropriate similarity conditions is a crucial question to be solved. For Climate Twins identification, it is necessary to find a right balance of indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges, unless the results will be too vague conducting a

  17. Effects of warmer and drier climate conditions on plant composition and biomass production in a Mediterranean shrubland community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dato, G. De; Angelis, P. De [Univ. of Tuscia, Viterbo (Italy). Dept. of Forest Environment and Resources; Pellizzaro, G.; Cesaraccio, C.; Duce, P. [National Research Council Institute of Biometeorology, Sassari (Italy); Sirca, C.; Spano, D. [Univ. of Sassari (Italy). Dept. of Economics and Wood Plant Ecosystems; Scarascia Mugnozza, G. [National Research Council Institute of Agro-Environmental and Forest Biology, Roma (Italy)

    2008-09-30

    The last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report predicts warmer and drier conditions for the future European climate and the Mediterranean basin could be highly sensitive to future climatic change. In order to investigate how the forecast more stressing factors could affect Mediterranean shrubland ecosystems, an appropriate manipulation of the microclimate was carried out in an area covered by Mediterranean maquis aimed at extending the drought period and increasing the night-time temperature. Soil cover, plant growth, litterfall, leaf water status, and leaf nutritional status were monitored over three growing seasons. The manipulation altered the microclimate according to common scenarios, increasing mean annual night-time air temperature by about 1{sup o}C and mean annual temperature by about 0.5 {sup o}C, and decreasing precipitation between 6-46% of the total rainfall during the growing seasons. A general increase of vegetation cover was observed in the whole community during the three years of experimentation. This positive temporal pattern was mainly observed in control and warming treatment, whereas in the drought treatment it was less evident. At species-specific level, a clear negative effect of drought treatment was observed for C. monspeliensis percentage cover. Shoot elongation was not significantly affected by the warming treatment. A significant negative effect of drought treatment was noticed in the 2001-2002 and 2002-2003 growing seasons. An increase of N and P concentrations in the drought treatment in Cistus was observed and it can be explained by the reduced shoot growth induced by the water shortage that we had observed in the same treatment. The absence of a concentration effect on the other two species could be the signal of the different behaviour with regard to a drier climate, and therefore could be a symptom of future change in species composition. We underline the need of long-term observation, because of the different

  18. Effects of warmer and drier climate conditions on plant composition and biomass production in a Mediterranean shrubland community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    De Dato G

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The last IPCC report predicts warmer and drier conditions for the future European climate and the Mediterranean basin could be highly sensible to future climatic change. In order to investigate how the forecast more stressing factors could affect Mediterranean shrubland ecosystems, an appropriate manipulation of the microclimate was carried out in an area covered by Mediterranean maquis aimed at extending the drought period and increasing the night-time temperature. Soil cover, plant growth, litterfall, leaf water status, and leaf nutritional status were monitored over three growing seasons. The manipulation altered the microclimate according to common scenarios, increasing mean annual night-time air temperature by about 1 �C and mean annual temperature by about 0.5 �C, and decreasing precipitation between 6-46% of the total rainfall during the growing seasons. A general increase of vegetation cover was observed in the whole community during the three years of experimentation. This positive temporal pattern was mainly observed in control and warming treatment, whereas in the drought treatment it was less evident. At species-specific level, a clear negative effect of drought treatment was observed for C. monspeliensis percentage cover. Shoot elongation was not significantly affected by the warming treatment. A significant negative effect of drought treatment was noticed in the 2001-2002 and 2002-2003 growing seasons. An increase of N and P concentrations in the drought treatment in Cistus was observed and it can be explained by the reduced shoot growth induced by the water shortage that we had observed in the same treatment. The absence of a concentration effect on the other two species could be the signal of the different behaviour with regard to a drier climate, and therefore could be a symptom of future change in species composition. We underline the need of long-term observation, because of the different responses of plants in the short

  19. Late Pliocene lakes and soils: a data - model comparison for the analysis of climate feedbacks in a warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pound, M. J.; Tindall, J.; Pickering, S. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Salzmann, U.

    2013-06-01

    Based on a synthesis of geological data we have reconstructed the global distribution of Late Pliocene soils and lakes which are then used as boundary conditions in a series of model experiments using the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (HadCM3) and the BIOME4 mechanistic vegetation model. By combining our novel soil and lake reconstructions with a fully coupled climate model we are able to explore the feedbacks of soils and lakes on the climate of the Late Pliocene. Our experiments reveal regionally confined changes of local climate and vegetation in response to the new boundary conditions. The addition of Late Pliocene soils has the largest influence on surface air temperatures, with notable increases in Australia, southern North Africa and Asia. The inclusion of Late Pliocene lakes generates a significant increase in precipitation in central Africa, as well as seasonal increases in the Northern Hemisphere. When combined, the feedbacks on climate from Late Pliocene lakes and soils improve the data to model fit in western North America and southern North Africa.

  20. Late Pliocene lakes and soils: a global data set for the analysis of climate feedbacks in a warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pound, M. J.; Tindall, J.; Pickering, S. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Salzmann, U.

    2014-01-01

    The global distribution of late Pliocene soils and lakes has been reconstructed using a synthesis of geological data. These reconstructions are then used as boundary conditions for the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (HadCM3) and the BIOME4 mechanistic vegetation model. By combining our novel soil and lake reconstructions with a fully coupled climate model we are able to explore the feedbacks of soils and lakes on the climate of the late Pliocene. Our experiments reveal regionally confined changes of local climate and vegetation in response to the new boundary conditions. The addition of late Pliocene soils has the largest influence on surface air temperatures, with notable increases in Australia, the southern part of northern Africa and in Asia. The inclusion of late Pliocene lakes increases precipitation in central Africa and at the locations of lakes in the Northern Hemisphere. When combined, the feedbacks on climate from late Pliocene lakes and soils improve the data to model fit in western North America and the southern part of northern Africa.

  1. Late Pliocene lakes and soils: a data – model comparison for the analysis of climate feedbacks in a warmer world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Pound

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on a synthesis of geological data we have reconstructed the global distribution of Late Pliocene soils and lakes which are then used as boundary conditions in a series of model experiments using the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (HadCM3 and the BIOME4 mechanistic vegetation model. By combining our novel soil and lake reconstructions with a fully coupled climate model we are able to explore the feedbacks of soils and lakes on the climate of the Late Pliocene. Our experiments reveal regionally confined changes of local climate and vegetation in response to the new boundary conditions. The addition of Late Pliocene soils has the largest influence on surface air temperatures, with notable increases in Australia, southern North Africa and Asia. The inclusion of Late Pliocene lakes generates a significant increase in precipitation in central Africa, as well as seasonal increases in the Northern Hemisphere. When combined, the feedbacks on climate from Late Pliocene lakes and soils improve the data to model fit in western North America and southern North Africa.

  2. WARMER URBAN CLIMATES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF GREEN SPACES IN NORTHERN SIBERIAN CITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Esau

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Modern human societies have accumulated considerable power to modify their environment and the earth’s system climate as the whole. The most significant environmental changes are found in the urbanized areas. This study considers coherent changes in vegetation productivity and land surface temperature (LST around four northern West Siberian cities, namely, Tazovsky, Nadym, Noyabrsk and Megion. These cities are located in tundra, forest-tundra, northern taiga and middle taiga bioclimatic zones correspondingly. Our analysis of 15 years (2000–2014 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS data revealed significantly (1.3 °C to 5.2 °C warmer seasonally averaged LST within the urbanized territories than those of the surrounding landscapes. The magnitude of the urban LST anomaly corresponds to climates found 300–600 km to the South. In the climate change perspective, this magnitude corresponds to the expected regional warming by the middle or the end of the 21st century. Warmer urban climates, and specifically warmer upper soil layers, can support re-vegetation of the disturbed urban landscapes with more productive trees and tall shrubs. This afforestation is welcome by the migrant city population as it is more consistent with their traditional ecological knowledge. Survival of atypical, southern plant species encourages a number of initiatives and investment to introduce even broader spectrum of temperate blossoming trees and shrubs in urban landscapes. The unintended changes of the urban micro-climates in combination with knowledgeable urban planning could transform the Siberian pioneer settlements into places of belonging.

  3. Warmer night-time temperature promotes microbial heterotrophic activity and modifies stream sediment community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freixa, Anna; Acuña, Vicenç; Casellas, Maria; Pecheva, Stoyana; Romaní, Anna M

    2017-09-01

    Diel temperature patterns are changing because of global warming, with higher temperatures being predicted to be more pronounced at night. Biological reactions are temperature dependent, with some occurring only during the daylight hours (e.g., light photosynthesis) and other during the entire day (e.g., respiration). Consequently, we expect the modification of daily temperature cycles to alter microbial biological reactions in stream sediments. Here, we aimed to study the effect of warming and changes of the diel temperature patterns on stream sediment biofilm functions tied to organic carbon decomposition, as well as on biofilm meiofaunal community structure. We performed an eight-week experiment with 12 artificial streams subjected to three different diel temperature patterns: warming, warmer nights and control. Significant effects of warming on biofilm function and structure were mainly detected in the long term. Our results showed that warming altered biofilm function, especially in the warmer nights' treatment, which enhanced β-glucosidase enzyme activity. Interestingly, clear opposite diel patterns were observed for dissolved organic carbon and β-glucosidase activity, suggesting that, at night, sediment bacteria quickly consume the input of photosynthetic dissolved organic carbon labile compounds created during light-time. The biofilm structure was also altered by warming, as both warming and warmer night treatments enhanced copepod abundance and diminished abundances of turbellaria and nematodes, which, in turn, controlled bacterial, algal and ciliate communities. Overall, we conclude that warming has strong effect on sediment biofilm structure and enhanced microbial organic matter degradation which might, consequently, affect higher trophic levels and river carbon cycling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Honeybees prefer warmer nectar and less viscous nectar, regardless of sugar concentration

    OpenAIRE

    Nicolson, Susan W.; de Veer, Leo; Köhler, Angela; Pirk, Christian W.W.

    2013-01-01

    The internal temperature of flowers may be higher than air temperature, and warmer nectar could offer energetic advantages for honeybee thermoregulation, as well as being easier to drink owing to its lower viscosity. We investigated the responses of Apis mellifera scutellata (10 colonies) to warmed 10% w/w sucrose solutions, maintained at 20–35°C, independent of low air temperatures, and to 20% w/w sucrose solutions with the viscosity increased by the addition of the inert polysaccharide Tylo...

  5. Icebreakers, Fillers y Warmers: actividades breves para la clase de inglés

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramiro DURÁN MARTÍNEZ

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available RESUMEN: En el siguiente artículo vamos a presentar diversos tipos de ejercicios de carácter breve que hemos utilizado en la clase de inglés con el objetivo de facilitar a los alumnos la práctica de la destreza oral. Estas actividades tienen distintos nombres dependiendo de la función que desempeñen: icebreakers, fillers y warmers. Se denominan icebreakers los ejercicios diseñados para romper la tensión que normalmente rodea las primeras sesiones de cualquier nueva actividad, como, por ejemplo, la primera clase de un curso de inglés. Cuando se habla de fillers se enfatiza su función comodín: tareas independientes que normalmente sirven para completar los últimos minutos del horario establecido para la clase de idiomas. El término warmer se aplica a las actividades que se llevan a cabo después de un período vacacional con el propósito de favorecer el reencuentro del alumno con el idioma que está estudiando. El principal objetivo de estos ejercicios es el desarrollo de la capacidad de los alumnos para expresarse de forma oral utilizando la lengua inglesa, concentrándose más en la práctica de la fluidez (fluency que en la precisión (accuracy. Por otra parte, sirven para favorecer la creación de vínculos de unión entre un grupo de estudiantes.ABSTRACT: In this paper, we are going to present a number of short activities that have been used in the English class in order to give students extra speaking practice. These activities were given different names depending on the role they play in the class: icebreakers, fillers and warmers. Icebreakers are fluency practice exercises produced to defuse the tension that the first sessions of every new activity imply: i.e. the first lesson of English. When talking about fillers, we refer to short independent activities that are used when the projected exercises have taken less time than expected. Warmers are also fluency practice activities devised to put students back in touch with the

  6. Climate Change and Future World

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    fresh water. Movements of migrants from northern Africa and the Middle-East are already a security problem for Europe . This phenomenon is likely to be...Climate Change Science Program , Climate Literacy – The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences, 3. (http://library.globalchange.gov/climate...06/2013. 21 U.S. Climate Change Science Program , Climate Literacy – The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences, 3. (http

  7. Superhabitable Worlds

    CERN Document Server

    Heller, René

    2014-01-01

    To be habitable, a world (planet or moon) does not need to be located in the stellar habitable zone (HZ), and worlds in the HZ are not necessarily habitable. Here, we illustrate how tidal heating can render terrestrial or icy worlds habitable beyond the stellar HZ. Scientists have developed a language that neglects the possible existence of worlds that offer more benign environments to life than Earth does. We call these objects "superhabitable" and discuss in which contexts this term could be used, that is to say, which worlds tend to be more habitable than Earth. In an appendix, we show why the principle of mediocracy cannot be used to logically explain why Earth should be a particularly habitable planet or why other inhabited worlds should be Earth-like. Superhabitable worlds must be considered for future follow-up observations of signs of extraterrestrial life. Considering a range of physical effects, we conclude that they will tend to be slightly older and more massive than Earth and that their host star...

  8. Great Development Trends of the World and China in the Future%世界和国家发展的超大趋势

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    顾朝林

    2014-01-01

    本文主要论述了未来世界和中国发展的一些超大趋势,主要涉及人口和城镇化、经济和贸易、科学和技术、资源和环境、社会转型和绿色发展。文章认为:全球人口数量将进一步增长,尤其中产阶级和老龄人口会急剧增加,全球经济也将快速发展,但区域不平衡和发达国家债务危机会加剧,资源和环境的压力随着技术进步会趋于好转,第三次工业革命处在孕育之中。对中国而言,世界最大的经济体、全球制造业王国和最大的城镇化国家已经无容置疑,但社会转型将可能引发诸多的城市问题、社会问题和空间不平衡问题,走绿色发展应该是未来中国的必然选择。%This article discussed some of great development trends of world and China in the future. They mainly related to population and urbanization, economic and trade, science and technology, resources and environment, social transformation and green development. The Paper considered that the global population will be continual growth, especially the middle class and the aging population will increase dramatically. The global economy will develop rapidly, but the regional imbalances and developed countries debt crisis will intensifies, pressures on the resources and environment will increasingly as improved technologies. It is possible that the third industrial revolution will be in gestation. For China, it is no doubt to become the world’s largest economy body, the largest manufacturing bases and the largest urbanization country in the world, but the social transformation will likely lead to many problems, such as urban, social and spatial imbalances, for this reason it is to take a green development road that should be China ’s inevitable choice in the future.

  9. LAMP using a disposable pocket warmer for anthrax detection, a highly mobile and reliable method for anti-bioterrorism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatano, Ben; Maki, Takayuki; Obara, Takeyuki; Fukumoto, Hitomi; Hagisawa, Kohsuke; Matsushita, Yoshitaro; Okutani, Akiko; Bazartseren, Boldbaastar; Inoue, Satoshi; Sata, Tetsutaro; Katano, Harutaka

    2010-01-01

    A quick, reliable detection system is necessary to deal with bioterrorism. Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) is a DNA amplification method that can amplify specific DNA fragments in isothermal conditions. We developed a new highly mobile and practical LAMP anthrax detection system that uses a disposable pocket warmer without the need for electricity (pocket-warmer LAMP). In our tests, the detection limit of the pocket-warmer LAMP was 1,000 copies of Bacillus anthracis pag and capB gene fragments per tube. The pocket-warmer LAMP also detected B. anthracis genes from DNA extracted from 0.1 volume of a B. anthracis colony. The lower detection limit of the pocket-warmer LAMP was not significantly different from that of a conventional LAMP using a heat block, and was not changed under cold (4 degrees C) or warm (37 degrees C) conditions in a Styrofoam box. The pocket-warmer LAMP could be useful against bioterrorism, and as a sensitive, reliable detection tool in areas with undependable electricity infrastructures.

  10. Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three General Circulation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wanders

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological droughts characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow likely will change in the 21st century as a results of climate change. Magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is largely unknown. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three General Circulation Models for the A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models, and the WATCH Forcing Data re-analysis dataset(reference model. The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and deficit volume. Results for the control period (1971–2000 show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate model's results after post-processing produce realistic outcome for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021–2050 and far future (2071–2100 the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D-climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry B-climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar, the analysis for the control period showed that projections are in these regions most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which urges water resources managers to timely anticipate on the increased risk on more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow and to design pro

  11. The status and the future of Baltic States and Romania in the strategy of Western Allies in the early years of the Second World War: a comparative view

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramojus Kraujelis

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The fate of Lithuania and Romania as well as future of the whole Central and Eastern European region was determined in the years of the Second World War. The common origin of their tragic and painful history was the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact – the secret deal between Soviet Union and Nazi Germany, which divided Central and Eastern Europe between two totalitarian regimes. In June 1940 the three Baltic States and a part of Romania were directly occupied and annexed by the Soviet Union. The main objective of this paper is to identify, analyze and compare the attitudes of the United States and Great Britain with respect to the annexation of the Baltic States and the Romania territory and discussed the post-war future reserved to them. During the early years of the Second Word War (1940-1942 few interesting international discussions about possible post-war arrangement plans existed. The analysis of the Western attitude would enable us to give answers to certain questions: What could have been done by the Western states for the benefit of Central and Eastern European region; what have they, in fact, done and what did they avoid doing? The year 1943 witnessed the consolidation of the Western attitude with regard to Soviet Union’s western borders, which resulted in the fundamental fact that Moscow did not intend to retract its interests in the Baltic States, Eastern Poland, North Bucovina and Bessarabia while the West did not intend to fight for these territories. Considering the fact that at the Teheran conference (1943 the Western states agreed upon turning the Baltic states into a Soviet interest sphere, the United States and Britain entered the Yalta conference (1945 with no illusions as to the fate of Central and Eastern Europe in general.

  12. Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanders, N.; Van Lanen, H. A. J.

    2015-03-01

    Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971-2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow

  13. THE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI OF JULY 21, 365 AD IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA - Review of Impact on the Ancient World - Assessment of Recurrence and Future Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Pararas-Carayannis

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available There is ample evidence indicating that on July 21, 365 AD a great earthquake near the west coast of the Island of Crete generated a mega-tsunami, which was responsible for extensive destruction throughout the Eastern Mediterranean, but particularly on Peloponnesus, the Greek Islands, Sicily, Libya, Cyprus, Palestine and Egypt. It is believed that the combined catastrophic impacts of the earthquake and tsunami were significant catalysts in furthering the declination of the Roman Empire and contributing to its subsequent final division between the East Roman and the West (Byzantine empires in 395 A.D. In view of subsequent earthquakes and tsunamis in the region and the high probability that a similar great disaster will occur again, the present study reviews and summarizes the seismo-tectonic and kinematic characteristics of the Aegean and Anatolian micro-plates, their interaction with the African and Eurasian tectonic plates and examines and evaluates the historical records pertaining to this 4th Century AD disaster as to the destructive impact it had on the ancient world. Additionally, the study reconciles the impact described in historical and recent records with results obtained by numerical modeling studies, provides a rough estimate of the recurrence frequency of great tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean region and assesses what the future impact may be in view of great increases in population densities along coastal areas.

  14. Health effects of a warmer climate - a knowledge review; Haelsopaaverkan av ett varmare klimat - en kunskapsoeversikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rockloev, Joacim; Hurtig, Anna-Karin; Forsberg, Bertil (Umeaa Univ. (SE). Dept. of Public Health and Clinical Medicine)

    2008-01-15

    Global warming has caused changes that can already be seen and that motivates considerations of the possible adaptation measures needed to protect people and public health. Expert bodies such as the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now conduct model simulations on how the world's climate is expected to change depending on, for example, the emission of greenhouse gases. The Swedish SMHI has provided scenarios for how the future climate in Sweden may develop. These assume an increase in the winter temperature of 3-8 deg C in winter and 1-5 deg C during summer, compared to the period 1961-1990. In addition, these scenarios indicate increased precipitation especially in northern Sweden, a greater risk of drought in Skaane during summer, as well as an increased risk of extreme events such as storms, heavy rainfall and heat waves. The climate change may affect health and its determinants in a number of different ways. The effects may be direct, as in extreme weather conditions, and also indirect, such as the influence of changes in climate and the environment on the spread of infectious diseases as well as the far-reaching effects of changes in other parts of the world. The aim of this overview report is to briefly present our current understanding of how health risks and public health may be affected. The presentations of potential consequences are partly built using knowledge of the associations between climate and health in various regions to draw analogies for areas expected to undergo changes that will make their climate more similar to current conditions in other regions. Distribution of vector-borne diseases can be determined by the type of climate a certain mosquito can survive. In the future we may face outbreaks of diseases that are new to us. Another way of making predictions is to use the observations of how health effects relate to weather variations in one place, for example, temperature fluctuations. In this regard we

  15. Effects of a future warmer ocean on the coexisting copepods Calanus finmarchicus and C. glacialis in Disko Bay, Western Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjellerup, Sanne; Dünweber, Michael; Swalethorp, Rasmus

    2012-01-01

    The effects of temperature and food was examined for Calanus finmarchicus and C. glacialis during 3 phases of the phytoplankton spring bloom in Disko Bay, western Greenland. The 2 species were collected during pre-bloom, bloom, and post-bloom and exposed to temperatures from 0 to 10°C, combined w...

  16. Statistical downscaling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency and the amplified role of the Caribbean low-level jet in a warmer climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jhordanne J.; Stephenson, Tannecia S.; Taylor, Michael A.; Campbell, Jayaka D.

    2016-04-01

    This study assesses the skill of four statistical models in hindcasting North Atlantic annual tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over 1950-2008 with the aim of projecting future activity. Three of the models are motivated by operational statistical forecast schemes and are premised on standard hurricane predictors including sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and near-surface zonal winds. The fourth model uses an SST gradient index previously proposed for Caribbean seasonal rainfall prediction. The statistical models, created from backward regression, explain 24-48% of the observed variability in 1950-2008 annual TC frequency. The future state of the predictors is extracted from the ECHAM5, HadCM3, MRI CGCM2.3.2a, and MIROC3.2 global climate model (GCM) simulations under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3. Models utilizing SST and near-surface wind predictors suggest significant increases in mean annual frequency by 2-8 TCs by 2070-2090, compared to a single surface wind predictor model, indicating that positive trends in SSTs under global warming have a larger relative influence on projections than changes in the variability of the surface winds. Wind-only models exhibit declines in TC frequency, while the SST gradient model yields little change relative to the present-day mean. Backward regression reapplied against the 1990-2008 period, analogous to future warmer oceanic and atmospheric state relative to the earlier years in the record, retains only the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ)-type predictors, explaining up to 82% of TC frequency variability and suggesting a more dominant role for the CLLJ in a warmer climate. Projections using the new models show either a more conservative increase or a stronger decrease in frequency, consistent with a stronger CLLJ.

  17. A Global Perspective on Warmer Droughts as a Key Driver of Forest Disturbances and Tree Mortality (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, C. D.

    2013-12-01

    Recent global warming, in concert with episodic droughts, is causing elevated levels of both chronic and acute forest water stress across large regions. Such increases in water stress affect forest dynamics in multiple ways, including by amplifying the incidence and severity of many significant forest disturbances, particularly drought-induced tree mortality, wildfire, and outbreaks of damaging insects and diseases. Emerging global-scale patterns of drought-related forest die-off are presented, including a newly updated map overview of documented drought- and heat-induced tree mortality events from around the world, demonstrating the vulnerability of all major forest types to forest drought stress, even in typically wet environments. Comparative patterns of drought stress and associated forest disturbances are reviewed for several regions (southwestern Australia, Inner Asia, western North America, Mediterranean Basin), including interactions among climate and various disturbance processes. From the Southwest USA, research is presented that derives a tree-ring-based Forest Drought Stress Index (FDSI) for the most regionally-widespread conifer species (Pinus edulis, Pinus ponderosa, and Pseudotsuga menziesii), demonstrating recent escalation of FDSI to extreme levels relative to the past 1000 years, due to both drought and especially warming. This new work further highlights strong correlations between drought stress and amplified forest disturbances (fire, bark beetle outbreaks), and projects that by CE 2050 anticipated regional warming will cause mean FDSI values to reach historically unprecedented levels that may exceed thresholds for the survival of current tree species in large portions of their current range in the Southwest. Similar patterns of recent climate-amplified forest disturbance risk are apparent from a variety of relatively dry regions across this planet, and given climate projections for substantially warmer temperatures and greater drought stress

  18. Mechanisms for Amplified Central European Summer Precipitation Extremes in a Warmer Mediterranean Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir; Tilinina, Natalia; Latif, Mojib

    2015-04-01

    Central European climate is influenced by the Mediterranean Sea, where a strong increase in sea surface temperature (SST) has been observed during the last four decades. One example of extreme weather events are cyclones following the "Vb" pathway. These cyclones are generated over the Mediterranean Sea, travel northeastwards around the Alps and then hit central European countries. These cyclones carry large amounts of moisture and cause extreme precipitation, and subsequently flooding, particularly in summer. To investigate the mechanisms causing increased summer extreme precipitation due to increased Mediterranean SST in Europe, we analyze a series of simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. In the control run, we forced the model with the 1970-1999 SST climatology. In an additional run, we replaced the Mediterranean and Black Sea SST forcing with the climatology of the warmer 2000-2012 period. ECHAM5 was run at high horizontal resolution (T159) and integrated for 40 years in each experiment. 20-season return levels were derived as a measure of extreme precipitation for daily precipitation in JJA (June - August). These return levels are estimated as quantiles of a stationary generalized Pareto distribution, based on exceedances of the 95th precipitation percentile. We have shown in a previous contribution that precipitation return levels in JJA increase along the Vb cyclone track although the number of Vb cyclones does not increase. Here we discuss the mechanisms responsible for this increase. Due to the warmer climate in the Mediterranean region, climatological mean evaporation and precipitable water in the atmosphere are increased. On extreme days, composites show an even further increase in precipitable water over the central European region. On these extreme days, a higher sea level pressure gradient between central Europe and the Atlantic causes enhanced cyclonic flow that transports more moisture from the Mediterranean region to

  19. Our World Their World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brisco, Nicole

    2011-01-01

    Build, create, make, blog, develop, organize, structure, perform. These are just a few verbs that illustrate the visual world. These words create images that allow students to respond to their environment. Visual culture studies recognize the predominance of visual forms of media, communication, and information in the postmodern world. This…

  20. Our World Their World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brisco, Nicole

    2011-01-01

    Build, create, make, blog, develop, organize, structure, perform. These are just a few verbs that illustrate the visual world. These words create images that allow students to respond to their environment. Visual culture studies recognize the predominance of visual forms of media, communication, and information in the postmodern world. This…

  1. Women are Warmer but No Less Assertive than Men: Gender and Language on Facebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Gregory; Schwartz, H. Andrew; Kern, Margaret L.; Eichstaedt, Johannes C.; Kosinski, Michael; Stillwell, David; Ungar, Lyle H.; Seligman, Martin E. P.

    2016-01-01

    Using a large social media dataset and open-vocabulary methods from computational linguistics, we explored differences in language use across gender, affiliation, and assertiveness. In Study 1, we analyzed topics (groups of semantically similar words) across 10 million messages from over 52,000 Facebook users. Most language differed little across gender. However, topics most associated with self-identified female participants included friends, family, and social life, whereas topics most associated with self-identified male participants included swearing, anger, discussion of objects instead of people, and the use of argumentative language. In Study 2, we plotted male- and female-linked language topics along two interpersonal dimensions prevalent in gender research: affiliation and assertiveness. In a sample of over 15,000 Facebook users, we found substantial gender differences in the use of affiliative language and slight differences in assertive language. Language used more by self-identified females was interpersonally warmer, more compassionate, polite, and—contrary to previous findings—slightly more assertive in their language use, whereas language used more by self-identified males was colder, more hostile, and impersonal. Computational linguistic analysis combined with methods to automatically label topics offer means for testing psychological theories unobtrusively at large scale. PMID:27223607

  2. Impact of warmer weather on electricity sector emissions due to building energy use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Paul; Holloway, Tracey; Patz, Jonathan; Harkey, Monica; Ahl, Doug; Abel, David; Schuetter, Scott; Hackel, Scott

    2017-06-01

    Most US energy consumption occurs in buildings, with cooling demands anticipated to increase net building electricity use under warmer conditions. The electricity generation units that respond to this demand are major contributors to sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), both of which have direct impacts on public health, and contribute to the formation of secondary pollutants including ozone and fine particulate matter. This study quantifies temperature-driven changes in power plant emissions due to increased use of building air conditioning. We compare an ambient temperature baseline for the Eastern US to a model-calculated mid-century scenario with summer-average temperature increases ranging from 1 C to 5 C across the domain. We find a 7% increase in summer electricity demand and a 32% increase in non-coincident peak demand. Power sector modeling, assuming only limited changes to current generation resources, calculated a 16% increase in emissions of NOx and an 18% increase in emissions of SO2. There is a high level of regional variance in the response of building energy use to climate, and the response of emissions to associated demand. The East North Central census region exhibited the greatest sensitivity of energy demand and associated emissions to climate.

  3. Women are Warmer but No Less Assertive than Men: Gender and Language on Facebook.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory Park

    Full Text Available Using a large social media dataset and open-vocabulary methods from computational linguistics, we explored differences in language use across gender, affiliation, and assertiveness. In Study 1, we analyzed topics (groups of semantically similar words across 10 million messages from over 52,000 Facebook users. Most language differed little across gender. However, topics most associated with self-identified female participants included friends, family, and social life, whereas topics most associated with self-identified male participants included swearing, anger, discussion of objects instead of people, and the use of argumentative language. In Study 2, we plotted male- and female-linked language topics along two interpersonal dimensions prevalent in gender research: affiliation and assertiveness. In a sample of over 15,000 Facebook users, we found substantial gender differences in the use of affiliative language and slight differences in assertive language. Language used more by self-identified females was interpersonally warmer, more compassionate, polite, and-contrary to previous findings-slightly more assertive in their language use, whereas language used more by self-identified males was colder, more hostile, and impersonal. Computational linguistic analysis combined with methods to automatically label topics offer means for testing psychological theories unobtrusively at large scale.

  4. Cold Surge Activity Over the Gulf of Mexico in a Warmer Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgar Perez Perez

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Cold surges are a dominant feature of midlatitude tropical interaction. During the North Hemisphere (NH winter, midlatitude waves propagating from the Rocky Mountains into the Gulf of Mexico result in cold surges, also known as Nortes or Tehuantepecers, associated with severe weather over the southern part of Mexico. The magnitude of their intense surface winds, precipitation and drops in surface temperature depends on the characteristics of the midlatitude wave propagating into the tropics. The high spatial resolution (20km X 20km version of the TL959L60-AGC Model of the Meteorological Research Institute of Japan is used to examine changes in cold surge activity under the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario for the 2080 - 2099 period. The model realistically reproduces the spatial and temporal characteristics of cold surges for the 1980 - 1989 control period. The effect of changes in baroclinicity, static stability and mean flow over North America suggest that in a warmer climate, increased cold surge activity over the Gulf of Mexico would occur. However, these systems would have shorter wavelength (higher phase speeds and shorter lifespans that could reduce the total amount of winter precipitation. The increased frequency of cold surges over the Gulf of Mexico would be a consequence of weaker baroclinicity and static stability in the lower troposphere over the cold surge genesis region, along with more dominant westerly winds, resulting from ENSO-like conditions in the atmospheric circulations over North America.

  5. Women are Warmer but No Less Assertive than Men: Gender and Language on Facebook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Gregory; Yaden, David Bryce; Schwartz, H Andrew; Kern, Margaret L; Eichstaedt, Johannes C; Kosinski, Michael; Stillwell, David; Ungar, Lyle H; Seligman, Martin E P

    2016-01-01

    Using a large social media dataset and open-vocabulary methods from computational linguistics, we explored differences in language use across gender, affiliation, and assertiveness. In Study 1, we analyzed topics (groups of semantically similar words) across 10 million messages from over 52,000 Facebook users. Most language differed little across gender. However, topics most associated with self-identified female participants included friends, family, and social life, whereas topics most associated with self-identified male participants included swearing, anger, discussion of objects instead of people, and the use of argumentative language. In Study 2, we plotted male- and female-linked language topics along two interpersonal dimensions prevalent in gender research: affiliation and assertiveness. In a sample of over 15,000 Facebook users, we found substantial gender differences in the use of affiliative language and slight differences in assertive language. Language used more by self-identified females was interpersonally warmer, more compassionate, polite, and-contrary to previous findings-slightly more assertive in their language use, whereas language used more by self-identified males was colder, more hostile, and impersonal. Computational linguistic analysis combined with methods to automatically label topics offer means for testing psychological theories unobtrusively at large scale.

  6. The Effect of Insulating Blood Warmer Output Tubing on the Temperature of Packed Red Blood Cells at Low Flow Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-01-01

    as the most effective method to minimize the detrimental effects of hypothermia (Boyan & Howland, 1962; Aldrete , 1985; Fried, Satiani, & Zeeb, 1986...rates result in an increased heat loss in both non-insulated and insulated blood warmer output tubing. 62 References 63 References Aldrete , J. A. (1985

  7. World Literature - World Culture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Offering their own twenty-first-century perspectives - across generations, nationalities and disciplines -, the contributors to this anthology explore the idea of world literature for what it may add of new connections and itineraries to the study of literature and culture today. Covering a vast ...... historical material these essays, by a diverse group of scholars, examine the pioneers of world literature and the roles played by translation, migration and literary institutions in the circulation and reception of both national and cosmopolitan literatures....

  8. World Literature - World Culture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Offering their own twenty-first-century perspectives - across generations, nationalities and disciplines -, the contributors to this anthology explore the idea of world literature for what it may add of new connections and itineraries to the study of literature and culture today. Covering a vast...... historical material these essays, by a diverse group of scholars, examine the pioneers of world literature and the roles played by translation, migration and literary institutions in the circulation and reception of both national and cosmopolitan literatures....

  9. “To see a world in a grain of sand”: Towards Future-oriented What-If Analysis in Narrative Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sools, A.M.

    2012-01-01

    In this article, I explore narrative building blocks for future-oriented what-if (i.e., possibilities-generating) analysis developed in a health promotion study. The aim of this study was to gain insight into future possibilities for good health among participants known for their poor health status.

  10. Cost-effective fuel and technology choices in the transportation sector in a future carbon constrained world: Results from the Global Energy Transition (GET) model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grahn, Maria

    2009-06-15

    This thesis analyzes future fuel and technology choices focusing on transport in a carbon constrained world. The analysis tool used in all five appended papers is the cost-minimizing Global Energy Transition (GET) model. Paper I analyzes cost-effective fuel and technology choices for passenger vehicles under a variety of vehicle cost-assumptions and how these choices depend on technology paths in the electricity sector. We find that cost estimates as well as the availability of carbon capture and storage technology and concentrating solar power have a substantial impact, ranging from a dominance of hydrogen to a dominance of electricity. Paper II analyzes the cost-effectiveness of biofuels for transportation, assuming that industrialized regions start reducing their CO{sub 2} emissions some decades ahead of developing regions. We find that biofuels may play a more important role for transportation in industrialized regions if these regions assume their responsibilities and reduce emissions before developing regions start reducing theirs, compared to the case in which all countries take action under a global cap and trade emissions reduction regime. Paper III analyzes how policy instruments aimed at increasing the use of biofuels for transportation in industrialized regions affect CO{sub 2} emissions in industrialized and developing regions. We find that such policy instruments may lead to avoided emissions in industrialized regions, especially during the first 50 years, and in a few specific cases in the developing regions, too. However, in the majority of cases, such a biofuels policy leads to increased emissions in the developing regions, i.e., to 'carbon leakage'. Paper IV analyzes why two global energy systems models reach different results on the cost-effectiveness of biofuels, although the models have strong similarities. We find biomass most cost-effectively used for heat production at low CO{sub 2} taxes in both models. Biomass allocation at

  11. Stronger sexual selection in warmer waters: the case of a sex role reversed pipefish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuno M Monteiro

    Full Text Available In order to answer broader questions about sexual selection, one needs to measure selection on a wide array of phenotypic traits, simultaneously through space and time. Nevertheless, studies that simultaneously address temporal and spatial variation in reproduction are scarce. Here, we aimed to investigate the reproductive dynamics of a cold-water pipefish simultaneously through time (encompassing variation within each breeding cycle and as individuals grow and space (by contrasting populations experiencing distinct water temperature regimes in order to test hypothesized differences in sexual selection. Even though the sampled populations inhabited locations with very different water temperature regimes, they exhibited considerable similarities in reproductive parameters. The most striking was the existence of a well-defined substructure in reproductive activity, where larger individuals reproduce for longer periods, which seemed dependent on a high temperature threshold for breeding rather than on the low temperatures that vary heavily according to latitude. Furthermore, the perceived disparities among populations, such as size at first reproduction, female reproductive investment, or degree of sexual size dimorphism, seemed dependent on the interplay between seawater temperature and the operational sex ratio (OSR. Contrary to our expectations of an enhanced opportunity for sexual selection in the north, we found the opposite: higher female reproductive investment coupled with increased sexual size dimorphism in warmer waters, implying that a prolonged breeding season does not necessarily translate into reduced sexual selection pressure. In fact, if the limited sex has the ability to reproduce either continuously or recurrently during the entire breeding season, an increased opportunity for sexual selection might arise from the need to compete for available partners under strongly biased OSRs across protracted breeding seasons. A more general

  12. Reproductive trade-offs may moderate the impact of Gyrodactylus salaris in warmer climates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott J Denholm

    Full Text Available Gyrodactylus salaris is a notifiable freshwater ectoparasite of salmonids. Its primary host is Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar, upon which infections can cause death, and have led to massive declines in salmon numbers in Norway, where the parasite is widespread. Different strains of S. salar vary in their susceptibility, with Atlantic strains (such as those found in Norway exhibiting no resistance to the parasite, and Baltic strains demonstrating an innate resistance sufficient to regulate parasite numbers on the host causing it to either die out or persist at a low level. In this study, Leslie matrix and compartmental models were used to generate data that demonstrated the population growth of G. salaris on an individual host is dependent on the total number of offspring per parasite, its longevity and the timing of its births. The data demonstrated that the key factor determining the rate of G. salaris population growth is the time at which the parasite first gives birth, with rapid birth rate giving rise to large population size. Furthermore, it was shown that though the parasite can give birth up to four times, only two births are required for the population to persist as long as the first birth occurs before a parasite is three days old. As temperature is known to influence the timing of the parasite's first birth, greater impact may be predicted if introduced to countries with warmer climates than Norway, such as the UK and Ireland which are currently recognised to be free of G. salaris. However, the outputs from the models developed in this study suggest that temperature induced trade-offs between the total number of offspring the parasite gives birth to and the first birth timing may prevent increased population growth rates over those observed in Norway.

  13. Mobile as a Mainstream – Towards Future Challenges in Mobile Learning. Proceedings of the 13th World Conference on Mobile and Contextual Learning (mLearn 2014)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kalz, Marco; Bayyurt, Yasemin; Specht, Marcus

    2014-01-01

    This book constitutes the proceedings of the 13th World Conference on Mobile and Contextual Learning, mLearn 2014, held in Istanbul, Turkey, in November 2014. The 20 revised full papers and 17 short papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 65 submissions. The papers are organized i

  14. The Evolution of Integrated Close Air Support: World War 2, Korea and the Future of Air-Ground Combined Arms Synergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    Translated by Oberstleutnant Lothar Sauermann Lw, student at SAASS. 77 Thomas E. Greiss series ed., West Point Atlas for the Second World War, ( Garden City...School program. The Marine Corps‟ Basic School mission evolved to inculcate all newly minted Second Lieutenants and Warrant Officers (male and female) in

  15. Effects on zooplankton of a warmer ocean: Recent evidence from the Northeast Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackas, David L.; Batten, Sonia; Trudel, Marc

    2007-10-01

    The consequences for pelagic communities of warming trends in mid and high latitude ocean regions could be substantial, but their magnitude and trajectory are not yet known. Environmental changes predicted by climate models (and beginning to be confirmed by observations) include warming and freshening of the upper ocean and reduction in the extent and duration of ice cover. One way to evaluate response scenarios is by comparing how “similar” zooplankton communities have differed among years and/or locations with differing temperature. The subarctic Pacific is a strong candidate for such comparisons, because the same mix of zooplankton species dominates over a wide range of temperature climatologies, and observations have spanned substantial temperature variability at interannual-to-decadal time scales. In this paper, we review and extend copepod abundance and phenology time series from net tow and Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys in the subarctic Northeast Pacific. The two strongest responses we have observed are latitudinal shifts in centers of abundance of many species (poleward under warm conditions), and changes in the life cycle timing of Neocalanus plumchrus in both oceanic and coastal regions (earlier by several weeks in warm years and at warmer locations). These zooplankton data, plus indices of higher trophic level responses such as reproduction, growth and survival of pelagic fish and seabirds, are all moderately-to-strongly intercorrelated (∣ r∣ = 0.25-0.8) with indices of local and basin-scale temperature anomalies. A principal components analysis of the normalized anomaly time series from 1979 to 2004 shows that a single “warm-and-low-productivity” vs. “cool-and-high-productivity” component axis accounts for over half of the variance/covariance. Prior to 1990, the scores for this component were negative (“cool” and “productive”) or near zero except positive in the El Niño years 1983 and 1987. The scores were strongly and

  16. The Potential Impacts of Warmer-Continent-Related Lower-Layer Equatorial Westerly Wind on Tropical Cyclone Initiation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUAN Zhuojian; QIAN Yu-Kun; QI Jindian; WU Junjie

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models predict that the increasing Amazonian-deforestation rates cause rising temperatures (increases of 1.8℃ to 8℃ under different conditions) and Amazonian drying over the 21st century.Observations in the 20th century also show that over the warmer continent and the nearby western South Atlantic Ocean,the lower-layer equatorial westerly wind (LLEWW) strengthens with the initiation of tropical cyclones (TCs).The warmer-continent-related LLEWW can result from the Coriolis-force-induced deflection of the cross-equatorial flow (similar to the well-known heat-island effect on sea breeze) driven by the enhanced land-sea contrast between the warmer urbanized continents and relatively cold oceans.This study focuses on the processes relating the warmer-continent-related LLEWW to the TC initiation and demonstrates that the LLEWW embedded in trade easterlies can directly initiate TCs by creating cyclonic wind shears and forming the intertropical convergence zone.In addition to this direct effect,the LLEWW combined with the rotating Earth can boost additional updraft vapor over the high sea-surface temperature region (factor 1),facilitating a surface-to-midtroposphere moist layer (factor 2) and convective instability (factor 3) followed by diabatic processes.According to previous studies,the diabatic heating in a finite equatorial region also activates TCs (factor 4) on each side of the Equator with weak vertical shear (factor 5).Factors 1 5 are favorable conditions for the initiation of severe TCs.Statistical analyses show that the earliest signal of sustained LLEWW not only leads the earliest signal of sustained tropical depression by >3 days but also explains a higher percentage of total variance.

  17. Predicting the current potential and future world wide distribution of the onion maggot, Delia antiqua using maximum entropy ecological niche modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jinian

    2017-01-01

    Climate change will markedly impact biology, population ecology, and spatial distribution patterns of insect pests because of the influence of future greenhouse effects on insect development and population dynamics. Onion maggot, Delia antiqua, larvae are subterranean pests with limited mobility, that directly feed on bulbs of Allium sp. and render them completely unmarketable. Modeling the spatial distribution of such a widespread and damaging pest is crucial not only to identify current potentially suitable climactic areas but also to predict where the pest is likely to spread in the future so that appropriate monitoring and management programs can be developed. In this study, Maximum Entropy Niche Modeling was used to estimate the current potential distribution of D. antiqua and to predict the future distribution of this species in 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2080 by using emission scenario (A2) with 7 climate variables. The results of this study show that currently highly suitable habitats for D.antiqua occur throughout most of East Asia, some regions of North America, Western Europe, and Western Asian countries near the Caspian sea and Black Sea. In the future, we predict an even broader distribution of this pest spread more extensively throughout Asia, North America and Europe, particularly in most of European countries, Central regions of United States and much of East Asia. Our present day and future predictions can enhance strategic planning of agricultural organizations by identifying regions that will need to develop Integrated Pest Management programs to manage the onion maggot. The distribution forecasts will also help governments to optimize economic investments in management programs for this pest by identifying regions that are or will become less suitable for current and future infestations. PMID:28158259

  18. Achievement of the World Bank loan project on schistosomiasis control (1992-2000) in Hubei province and the challenge in the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changsong, Sun; Binggui, Yu; Hongyi, Liao; Yuhai, Dai; Xu, Xingjian; Huiguo, Zhu; Yong, Jiang

    2002-05-01

    Since the World Bank provided a loan for control of schistosomiasis in China, started from 1992, with the objective of a reduction of prevalence and intensity of the infection both in humans and animals by 40%, through mass chemotherapy in areas of high prevalence, and selective chemotherapy in areas with medium and low endemicity together with focal mollusciciding, the objective of morbidity control of the project has been reached in Hubei Province.

  19. The Role of Education in Building a Future World Based on Democracy and Development: Regional Perspectives from Africa, Latin America, and South Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolman, David C.

    This paper begins with a comparative regional survey of the current status of democracy and development in Africa, Latin America, and South Asia. Each region shares a legacy of colonial domination by European powers. The comparative study uses criteria from the basic needs approach. Critical social thought and future visions about democracy and…

  20. Woody biomass production during the second rotation of a bio-energy Populus plantation increases in a future high CO2 world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liberloo, M.; Calfapietra, C.; Lukac, M.; Godbold, D.; Luos, Z.B.; Polles, A.; Hoosbeek, M.R.; Kull, O.; Marek, M.; Rianes, Chr.; Rubino, M.; Taylors, G.; Scarascia-Mugnozza, G.; Ceulemans, R.

    2006-01-01

    The quickly rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)-levels, justify the need to explore all carbon (C) sequestration possibilities that might mitigate the current CO2 increase. Here, we report the likely impact of future increases in atmospheric CO2 on woody biomass production of three poplar specie

  1. World law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harold J. Berman

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available In the third millennium of the Christian era, which is characterised by the emergence of a world economy and eventually a world society, the concept of world law is needed to embrace not only the traditional disciplines of public international law, and comparative law, but also the common underlying legal principles applicable in world trade, world finance, transnational transfer of technology and other fields of world economic law, as well as in such emerging fields as the protection of the world's environment and the protection of universal human rights. World law combines inter-state law with the common law of humanity and the customary law of various world communities.

  2. The World of Wars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harste, Gorm

    2014-01-01

    The world of the future will not be one without wars. The many hopes we have about a future peace governed by a more or less confederal state will not make wars obsolete. Regular wars and irregular wars will continue and probably about different subjects than we are used to. The article proposes ...

  3. The Future of Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frankel, Christian; Ossandón, José

    2013-01-01

    Review of Elena Esposito: The Future of Futures. The Time of Money in Financing and Society Cheltenham. Edward Elgar, 2011.......Review of Elena Esposito: The Future of Futures. The Time of Money in Financing and Society Cheltenham. Edward Elgar, 2011....

  4. World law

    OpenAIRE

    Berman, Harold J.; Robert W. Woodruff; James Barr Ames

    1999-01-01

    In the third millennium of the Christian era, which is characterised by the emergence of a world economy and eventually a world society, the concept of world law is needed to embrace not only the traditional disciplines of public international law, and comparative law, but also the common underlying legal principles applicable in world trade, world finance, transnational transfer of technology and other fields of world economic law, as well as in such emerging fields as the protection of the ...

  5. Worlds Fantastic, Worlds Familiar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buratti, Bonnie J.

    2017-02-01

    Introduction; 1. Mercury: the hottest little place; 2. Venus: an even hotter place; 3. Mars: the abode of life?; 4. Asteroids and comets: sweat the small stuff; 5. Galileo's treasures: worlds of fire and ice; 6. Enceladus: an active iceball in space; 7. Titan: an Earth in deep freeze?; 8. Iapetus and its friends: the weirdest 'planets' in the Solar System; 9. Pluto: the first view of the 'third zone'; 10. Earths above: the search for exoplanets and life in the universe; Epilogue; Glossary; Acknowledgements; Index.

  6. Regional Suppression of Bactrocera Fruit Flies (Diptera: Tephritidae in the Pacific through Biological Control and Prospects for Future Introductions into Other Areas of the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger I. Vargas

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Bactrocera fruit fly species are economically important throughout the Pacific. The USDA, ARS U.S. Pacific Basin Agricultural Research Center has been a world leader in promoting biological control of Bactrocera spp. that includes classical, augmentative, conservation and IPM approaches. In Hawaii, establishment of Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coquillett in 1895 resulted in the introduction of the most successful parasitoid, Psyttalia fletcheri (Silvestri; similarly, establishment of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel in 1945 resulted in the introduction of 32 natural enemies of which Fopius arisanus (Sonan, Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Ashmead and Fopius vandenboschi (Fullaway were most successful. Hawaii has also been a source of parasitoids for fruit fly control throughout the Pacific region including Australia, Pacific Island Nations, Central and South America, not only for Bactrocera spp. but also for Ceratitis and Anastrepha spp. Most recently, in 2002, F. arisanus was introduced into French Polynesia where B. dorsalis had invaded in 1996. Establishment of D. longicaudata into the new world has been important to augmentative biological control releases against Anastrepha spp. With the rapid expansion of airline travel and global trade there has been an alarming spread of Bactrocera spp. into new areas of the world (i.e., South America and Africa. Results of studies in Hawaii and French Polynesia, support parasitoid introductions into South America and Africa, where B. carambolae and B. invadens, respectively, have become established. In addition, P. fletcheri is a candidate for biological control of B. cucurbitae in Africa. We review past and more

  7. Evolution of future energy demands till 2030 in different world regions: An assessment made for the two International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, A. M.; Hoelzl, A.

    1982-04-01

    Trends in energy demand, per capita consumption, production, and transportation were assessed for all the major world regions, except China and Asian countries with centrally planned economies. High and low economic growth rates relative to 1975, were considered. Energy demand in developed regions is expected to increase by a factor of 1.8 to 2.6. In developing regions it increases by a factor of 7 to 12. Per capita consumption in developed regions increases from a level of 2.8 to 7.9 kw to 3.9 to 11.6 kw; in developing countries it increases from 0.2 to 0.8 kw to 0.5 to 4.6 kw. The share of electricity in final energy continues to increase. Manufacturing activities remain the major energy consumers. Fossil fuels will remain the most important energy source.

  8. Potential costs of acclimatization to a warmer climate: growth of a reef coral with heat tolerant vs. sensitive symbiont types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

    2010-05-03

    One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.

  9. Potential costs of acclimatization to a warmer climate: growth of a reef coral with heat tolerant vs. sensitive symbiont types.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Jones

    Full Text Available One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.

  10. Megadroughts: The scary past told by tree rings and its implications for the future (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, E. R.

    2013-12-01

    extreme mode of hydroclimatic variability, one in which megadroughts are more frequent and prolonged. The reasons for this are not well understood, but they appear to be associated with warmer climate conditions, such as that experienced during medieval times. Climate model projections of future climate change due to greenhouse warming indicate that the dry subtropical zones of the world will expand poleward in the future. Given the apparent association between past megadroughts and warmer climate, we may be in danger of slipping into a new megadrought era, like that seen during medieval times in the drought atlases, even if the underlying mechanisms are different. This suggests that past megadroughts should be used as analogues of future hydroclimatic change for modeling and impact studies.

  11. Reflexiones en torno a la financiación actual y futura de las universidades a nivel mundial Considerations about present and future university financing world wide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco López Segrera

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Durante la pasada década, las posiciones del Banco Mundial se orientaron hacia la defensa de la orientación competitiva y de mercado de la educación superior, mientras que UNESCO reafirmó el estatuto de servicio público de ella y abogó por mantener un importante financiamiento estatal, con el objetivo de desarrollar una educación superior igualmente accesible a todos sobre la base del mérito. Este artículo es un ejercicio de educación superior internacional comparada. Presenta reflexiones sobre todo respecto a los siguientes temas: principales tendencias globales de la educación superior; modelos mundiales de financiamiento; visión global del financiamiento de las universidades; financiamiento, políticas de educación superior, cooperación internacional e internacionalización; financiamiento de la educación superior en Europa. En resumen, concluye que diversificar las fuentes de financiamiento es positivo y necesario, pero esto no debe implicar una reducción o abdicación del Estado en el financiamiento de la educación terciaria.During the past decade, the World Bank's higher education guidelines were geared towards competition and the market place, while Unesco reaffirmed the statute of its public service and advocated the importance of State financing, with the purpose of developing a higher education that is equally accessible to all and based on merit. This article is a comparison of international higher education. It presents considerations on the following topics: main global tendencies for higher education; world models of financing; global vision of university financing; financing, higher education policies, international cooperation and internationalization; higher education financing in Europe. In short, it concludes that diversifying the sources of financing is both positive and necessary, though this must not imply a reduction or abdication of the State in the financing of higher education.

  12. Geopolitical Trends and Security Challenges across the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific Regions; Strategic Insights, v. 10, Special issue (October 2011), 28-35. Topic: Global Trends and Future Warfare ; Part I: Alternative Perspectives: Traditional Powers, Rising Powers, and the Developing World

    OpenAIRE

    Parthasarathy, G.

    2011-01-01

    This article appeared in Strategic Insights, v.10, Special issue (October 2011), 28-35. Topic: Global Trends and Future Warfare ; Part I: Alternative Perspectives: Traditional Powers, Rising Powers, and the Developing World Approved for public display, distribution unlimited

  13. Current status of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever in the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region: issues, challenges, and future directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seif S. Al-Abri

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF is the most widespread, tick-borne viral disease affecting humans. The disease is endemic in many regions, such as Africa, Asia, Eastern and Southern Europe, and Central Asia. Recently, the incidence of CCHF has increased rapidly in the countries of the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region (WHO EMR, with sporadic human cases and outbreaks of CCHF being reported from a number of countries in the region. Despite the rapidly growing incidence of the disease, there are currently no accurate data on the burden of the disease in the region due to the different surveillance systems used for CCHF in these countries. In an effort to increase our understanding of the epidemiology and risk factors for the transmission of the CCHF virus (CCHFV; a Nairovirus of the family Bunyaviridae in the WHO EMR, and to identify the current knowledge gaps that are hindering effective control interventions, a sub-regional meeting was organized in Muscat, Oman, from December 7 to 9, 2015. This article summarizes the current knowledge of the disease in the region, identifies the knowledge gaps that present challenges for the prevention and control of CCHFV, and details a strategic framework for research and development activities that would be necessary to curb the ongoing and new threats posed by CCHFV.

  14. Changes of Warmer Winter and Winter Temperature over China During 1956-2005%1956-2005年中国暖冬和冬季温度变化

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王凌; 张强; 陈峪

    2008-01-01

    Areasonable warmer winter index(IwwI)in the framework of the three equiprobability categories(i.e.warmer,normal and colder categories)is proposed based on the winter temperature data observed at 565 stations in China during 1956-2005,where IwwI is defined as the ratio of the station number of warmer category over the total number of stations.The results suggest that the trend of IwwI was consistent with that of the winter temperature on decadal time scale,and their rates of change were 10%/10 a and 0.4℃/10 a,respectively.It is found that only 13 warmer winter events in total were detected by IwwI over the past 50 years,and 85% of them occurred after 1986.

  15. Growth, condition factor, and bioenergetics modeling link warmer stream temperatures below a small dam to reduced performance of juvenile steelhead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauter, S.T.; Connolly, P.J.

    2010-01-01

    We investigated the growth and feeding performance of juvenile steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss using field measures and bioenergetics modeling. Juvenile steelhead populations were sampled from mid-June through August 2004 at study sites upstream and downstream of Hemlock Dam. The growth and diet of juvenile steelhead were determined for a warm (summer) and subsequent (late summer) transitional period at each study site. Empirical data on the growth and diet of juvenile steelhead and mean daily temperatures were used in a bioenergetics model to estimate the proportion of maximum consumption achieved by juvenile steelhead by site and period. Modeled estimates of feeding performance were better for juvenile steelhead at the upstream compared to the downstream site during both periods. The median condition factor of juvenile steelhead did not change over the summer at the upstream site, but showed a significant decline over time at the downstream site. A negative trend in median condition factor at the downstream site supported bioenergetics modeling results that suggested the warmer stream temperatures had a negative impact on juvenile steelhead. Bioenergetics modeling predicted a lower feeding performance for juvenile steelhead rearing downstream compared to upstream of Hemlock Dam although food availability appeared to be limited at both study sites during the warm period. Warmer water temperatures, greater diel variation, and change in diel pattern likely led to the reduced feeding performance and reduced growth, which could have affected the overall survival of juvenile steelhead downstream of Hemlock Dam. ?? 2010 by the Northwest Scientific Association.

  16. A warmer ambient temperature increases the passage of interleukin-1β into the brains of old rats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, Jessica B.; Peloso, Elizabeth; Satinoff, Evelyn

    2008-01-01

    We have demonstrated that after intraperitoneal lipopolysaccharide (LPS) injection, old rats mount fevers similar to those of young rats at an ambient temperature (Ta) of 31°C, but not at 21°C. The same is true for intraperitoneal or intravenous IL-1β administration. The underlying mechanism responsible for blunted fever in old rats may be a deficiency in communication between the periphery and the brain. Possibly, peripheral cytokine actions are altered in old rats, such that the signal that reaches the brain is diminished. Here, we hypothesized that at standard laboratory temperatures, not enough IL-1β is reaching the brain for fever to occur and that a warmer Ta would increase the influx of IL-1β into the brain, enabling old rats to generate fever. Young (3–5 mo) and old (23–29 mo) Long-Evans rats were maintained for 3 days at either Ta 21 or 31°C prior to intravenous injection with radiolabeled IL-1β to measure passage across the blood-brain barrier. Young rats showed similar influx of IL-1β into the brain at the two Tas, but old rats showed significant influx only at the warmer Ta. These data suggest that the lack of fever at a cool Ta may be due to a reduced influx of IL-1β into the brain. PMID:18448612

  17. Exploring the Educational Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merritt, Elizabeth E.

    2012-01-01

    Futures studies uses scenarios--stories of the future--to explore how trends and events shaping our world may play out in future decades. This article features a short scenario set in California in 2037, depicting twelve-year-old Moya and her brother mart, whose "fenced community" has opted for a system of self-directed, online learning…

  18. Projections of European summer tourism demand at a +2 degrees warmer climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grillakis, Manolis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Tsanis, Ioannis; Jacob, Daniela

    2015-04-01

    Tourism is a billion euros industry for Europe and especially for the southern countries for which summer tourism is an important contribution to their GDP. It is highly dependent on the climate and any future changes will alter the favorability of European destinations. The impact of a potential global temperature increase of 1.5 and 2 degrees on European tourism was investigated in the frame of IMPACT2C FP7 project. Climate information from four ENSEMBLES and five Euro-CORDEX RCMs were used to estimate the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) under the A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The monthly averages of the historical TCI estimates were correlated to the recorded monthly averages of overnight stays for all considered NUTS3 regions in Europe. The correlation proved to be significantly high for the majority of these regions with higher values for the European South, while the lowest correlation was attained for Sweden Denmark and Austria. The correlation estimates was then used to provide information about the change in tourism activity due to changes in the future climate favorability through the TCI. The results show that for the May to October "summer tourism" season, and under +1.5 and +2 degrees climate the potential overnight stays are projected to increase in average in almost the entire European domain, except Cyprus which exhibits a consistent decrease, robust across all scenarios. In contrast, for the peak of the summer season between June and August, it is projected that the European south will potentially exhibit decrease in the overnight stays to as high as 20% and for some cases to even higher than 30% (Greece). Key strength of the results are the correlation of measured tourism indicators to a conceptual index, which gives the ability to quantify the change in the tourism indicator, rather than investigating the coarser concept of climate risk.

  19. The Weather of the Future: Heat Waves, Extreme Storms, and Other Scenes from a Climate-Changed Planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullen, H. M.

    2010-12-01

    In The Weather of the Future, Dr. Heidi Cullen puts a vivid face on climate change, offering a new way of seeing this phenomenon not just as an event set to happen in the distant future but as something happening right now in our own backyards. Arguing that we must connect the weather of today with the climate change of tomorrow, Cullen combines the latest research from scientists on the ground with state-of-the-art climate model projections to create climate-change scenarios for seven of the most at-risk locations around the world. From the Central Valley of California, where coming droughts will jeopardize the entire state’s water supply, to Greenland, where warmer temperatures will give access to mineral wealth buried beneath ice sheets for millennia, Cullen illustrates how, if left unabated, climate change will transform every corner of the world by midcentury. What emerges is a mosaic of changing weather patterns that collectively spell out the range of risks posed by global warming—whether it’s New York City, whose infrastructure is extremely vulnerable even to a relatively weak Category 3 hurricane or to Bangladesh, a country so low-lying that millions of people could become climate refugees thanks to rising sea levels. The Weather of the Future makes climate change local, showing how no two regions of the country or the world will be affected in quite the same way and demonstrating that melting ice is just the beginning.

  20. Coastal hazards in a changing world: projecting and communicating future coastal flood risk at the local-scale using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Foxgrover, Amy; Limber, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Fitzgibbon, Michael; Wood, Nathan

    2017-04-01

    The risk of coastal flooding will increase for many low-lying coastal regions as predominant contributions to flooding, including sea level, storm surge, wave setup, and storm-related fluvial discharge, are altered with climate change. Community leaders and local governments therefore look to science to provide insight into how climate change may affect their areas. Many studies of future coastal flooding vulnerability consider sea level and tides, but ignore other important factors that elevate flood levels during storm events, such as waves, surge, and discharge. Here we present a modelling approach that considers a broad range of relevant processes contributing to elevated storm water levels for open coast and embayment settings along the U.S. West Coast. Additionally, we present online tools for communicating community-relevant projected vulnerabilities. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is a numerical modeling system developed to predict coastal flooding due to both sea-level rise (SLR) and plausible 21st century storms for active-margin settings like the U.S. West Coast. CoSMoS applies a predominantly deterministic framework of multi-scale models encompassing large geographic scales (100s to 1000s of kilometers) to small-scale features (10s to 1000s of meters), resulting in flood extents that can be projected at a local resolution (2 meters). In the latest iteration of CoSMoS applied to Southern California, U.S., efforts were made to incorporate water level fluctuations in response to regional storm impacts, locally wind-generated waves, coastal river discharge, and decadal-scale shoreline and cliff changes. Coastal hazard projections are available in a user-friendly web-based tool (www.prbo.org/ocof), where users can view variations in flood extent, maximum flood depth, current speeds, and wave heights in response to a range of potential SLR and storm combinations, providing direct support to adaptation and management decisions. In order to capture

  1. Water in the Native World: Hydrological Impacts of Future Land Use and Climate Change in the Lumbee River Watershed and Implications for Ecosystems and Indigenous Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emanuel, R. E.; Singh, N.; Painter, J.; Sikes, J. A.; Vose, J. M.; Wear, D. N.; Martin, K. L.

    2016-12-01

    In the coming decades, the southeastern US will likely experience substantial shifts in land use due to population growth, food and energy production, and other factors. In the same period, climate change is expected to alter ecohydrological processes in terrestrial landscapes while contributing to further land use change. Increasingly, these changes will challenge the ability of the region's freshwater resources to support natural ecosystems and human communities. The impacts of land use and climate change on water are of particular concern to rural indigenous communities of the southeastern US. For these communities, the cultural significance of land and water, together with historical legacies of discrimination, marginalization and other factors, combine to create unique vulnerabilities to environmental change. Assessments of land use and climate impacts on water resources of the southeastern US tend to focus on quantity and quality concerns of large cities or on waters of special economic concern (e.g. estuaries and coastal fisheries). The potential impacts of land use and climate change on American Indian communities are largely overlooked or unknown. With this in mind, we used a semi-distributed hydrological model (SWAT) to assess impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow regimes in the Lumbee (aka Lumber) River, North Carolina (USA). This coastal plain blackwater river is a significant natural and cultural resource for indigenous people of the Lumbee Tribe, and its watershed, containing extensive riparian wetlands and agriculture-dominated uplands, is home to more than 30,000 tribal citizens. We ran SWAT with statistically downscaled output from four general circulation models (GCMs) for the mid-21st century (RCP8.5 scenario), together with a mid-century land use scenario from the US Forest Service's Southern Forest Futures Project. We used these inputs to simulate daily streamflows on the Lumbee River for the 2040-2060 period with uncertainty

  2. The World of Wars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harste, Gorm

    2014-01-01

    The world of the future will not be one without wars. The many hopes we have about a future peace governed by a more or less confederal state will not make wars obsolete. Regular wars and irregular wars will continue and probably about different subjects than we are used to. The article proposes...... that the form of war will be more about temporalities, i.e. fast interchanges or, rather, more risky protracted wars of attrition and exhaustion and less about tactical well defined territories. The West can neither dominate such wars nor establish one world that is ruled or even governed. The risk is that we...

  3. Optimal Regulation of the Balance between Productivity and Overwintering of Perennial Grasses in a Warmer Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Åshild Ergon

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal growth patterns of perennial plants are linked to patterns of acclimation and de-acclimation to seasonal stresses. The timing of cold acclimation (development of freezing resistance and leaf growth cessation in autumn, and the timing of de-acclimation and leaf regrowth in spring, is regulated by seasonal cues in the environment, mainly temperature and light factors. Warming will lead to new combinations of these cues in autumn and spring. Extended thermal growing seasons offer a possibility for obtaining increased yields of perennial grasses at high latitudes. Increased productivity in the autumn may not be possible in all high latitude regions due to the need for light during cold acclimation and the need for accumulating a carbohydrate storage prior to winter. There is more potential for increased yields in spring due to the availability of light, but higher probability of freezing events in earlier springs would necessitate a delay of de-acclimation, or an ability to rapidly re-acclimate. In order to optimize the balance between productivity and overwintering in the future, the regulation of growth and acclimation processes may have to be modified. Here, the current knowledge on the coordinated regulation of growth and freezing resistance in perennial grasses is reviewed.

  4. Professor Hassan K. Awwad; The Father of Radiation Oncology and Radiobiology in Egypt and the Arab World, His Good Deeds Last Forever and Inspire us for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaghloul, Mohamed S; El-Badawi, Samy A; Abd Elbaky, Hoda

    2007-03-01

    ideas with these great people all through his life and till the last moments of his extended fruitful life. Prof. Awwad wrote many books for a wide diversity of readers, for the lay people in Arabic, for radiographers, young oncologist, and the highly experienced radiation oncologists and radiobiologists. His book "Radiation Oncology: Radiobiological and Physiobiological Perspectives" was a real translation of radiobiology language to the oncologist and at the same time translation of the oncologist language to the biologist. This book ended with establishing a common language for both teams. In addition, it led other books in these specialties to communicate with the same language. The good news is that Prof. Awwad had completed the second edition of this book just before passing away. This second edition is really a totally new book coping with the advancement of knowledge reached till the end of 2006. We are sure that this book with all other good deeds performed by Prof. Awwad, will keep his memory in Egypt as well as elsewhere in the whole world.

  5. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-11-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

  6. Elevated CO2 reduced floret death in wheat under warmer average temperatures and terminal drought.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo eDias de Oliveira

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Elevated CO2 often increases grain yield in wheat by enhancing grain number per ear, which can result from an increase in the potential number of florets or a reduction in the death of developed florets. The hypotheses that elevated CO2 reduces floret death rather than increases floret development, and that grain size in a genotype with more grains per unit area is limited by the rate of grain filling, were tested in a pair of sister lines contrasting in tillering capacity (restricted- vs free-tillering. The hypotheses were tested under elevated CO2, combined with +3 C above ambient temperature and terminal drought, using specialized field tunnel houses. Elevated CO2 increased net leaf photosynthetic rates and likely the availability of carbon assimilates, which significantly reduced the rates of floret death and increased the potential number of grains at anthesis in both sister lines by an average of 42%. The restricted-tillering line had faster grain-filling rates than the free-tillering line because the free-tillering line had more grains to fill. Furthermore, grain-filling rates were faster under elevated CO2 and +3 C above ambient. Terminal drought reduced grain yield in both lines by 19%. Elevated CO2 alone increased the potential number of grains, but a trade-off in yield components limited grain yield in the free-tillering line. This emphasizes the need for breeding cultivars with a greater potential number of florets, since this was not affected by the predicted future climate variables.

  7. Subtropical Low Cloud Response to a Warmer Climate in an Superparameterized Climate Model: Part I. Regime Sorting and Physical Mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter N Blossey

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The subtropical low cloud response to a climate with SST uniformly warmed by 2 K is analyzed in the SP- CAM superparameterized climate model, in which each grid column is replaced by a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model (CRM. Intriguingly, SP-CAM shows substantial low cloud increases over the subtropical oceans in the warmer climate. The paper aims to understand the mechanism for these increases. The subtropical low cloud increase is analyzed by sorting grid-column months of the climate model into composite cloud regimes using percentile ranges of lower tropospheric stability (LTS. LTS is observed to be well correlated to subtropical low cloud amount and boundary layer vertical structure. The low cloud increase in SP-CAM is attributed to boundary-layer destabilization due to increased clear-sky radiative cooling in the warmer climate. This drives more shallow cumulus convection and a moister boundary layer, inducing cloud increases and further increasing the radiative cooling. The boundary layer depth does not change substantially, due to compensation between increased radiative cooling (which promotes more turbulent mixing and boundary-layer deepening and slight strengthening of the boundary-layer top inversion (which inhibits turbulent entrainment and promotes a shallower boundary layer. The widespread changes in low clouds do not appear to be driven by changes in mean subsidence.
    In a companion paper we use column-mode CRM simulations based on LTS-composite profiles to further study the low cloud response mechanisms and to explore the sensitivity of low cloud response to grid resolution in SP-CAM.

  8. Counseling For Future Shock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Lewis B.

    1974-01-01

    In this article the author looks at some of the searing prophecies made by Alvin Toffler in his book Future Shock and relates them to the world of the professional counselor and the clientele the counselor attempts to serve. (Author)

  9. Factors affecting the mobilization of DOC and metals in a peat soil under a warmer scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrera, Noela; Barreal, María. Esther; Briones, María. Jesús I.

    2010-05-01

    University Press, Cambridge, UK. • Rowell D.P. & Jones R.G. (2006). Causes and uncertainty of future summer drying over Europe. Climate Dynamics 27: 281-299.

  10. Half of the world’s population experience robust changes in the water cycle for a 2 °C warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedláček, Jan; Knutti, Reto

    2014-04-01

    Fresh water is a critical resource on Earth, yet projections of changes in the water cycle resulting from anthropogenic warming are challenging. It is important to not only know the best estimate of change, but also how robust these projections are, where changes occur, which variables will change, and how many people are affected by it. Here we synthesize the changes in the water cycle, based on results of the latest climate model intercomparison (CMIP5). Several variables of the water cycle, such as evaporation and relative humidity, show robust changes over more than 50% of the land area already with an anthropogenic global warming of 1 °C. A warming of 2 °C shows more than half of the world’s population to be directly affected by robust local changes in the water cycle, and everybody experiences a robust change in at least one variable of the water cycle. While the physical changes are widespread, the affected people are concentrated in a few hot-spots mainly in Asia and Central Africa. The occurrence of these hot-spots is driven by population density, as well as by the early emergence of the anthropogenic signal from variability in these areas. Large uncertainties remain in projections of soil moisture and runoff changes.

  11. World wide biomass resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faaij, A.P.C.

    2012-01-01

    In a wide variety of scenarios, policy strategies, and studies that address the future world energy demand and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, biomass is considered to play a major role as renewable energy carrier. Over the past decades, the modern use of biomass has increased rapidly in

  12. World wide biomass resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faaij, A.P.C.

    2012-01-01

    In a wide variety of scenarios, policy strategies, and studies that address the future world energy demand and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, biomass is considered to play a major role as renewable energy carrier. Over the past decades, the modern use of biomass has increased rapidly in

  13. World wide biomass resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faaij, A.P.C.

    2012-01-01

    In a wide variety of scenarios, policy strategies, and studies that address the future world energy demand and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, biomass is considered to play a major role as renewable energy carrier. Over the past decades, the modern use of biomass has increased

  14. World lays groundwork for future linear collider

    CERN Multimedia

    Feder, Toni

    2010-01-01

    "New physics from the Large Hadron Collider can best be explored with a large lepton collider; realizing one will require mobilizing accelerator and particle physicists, funding agencies, and politicians" (3 pages)

  15. INDEBTED WORLD AND KNOWLEDGE FOR THE FUTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RICHARD POSPISIL

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available For more than a decade, the amount of public debt is one of the biggest problem in advanced economies. Level of public debt is not only the very one indicator of the risk of national bankruptcy, even though it is the most important indicator. Solution of debt serv ice in indebted economies basically consists of two possible options. The first option is the way of saving of all kinds of expenses, with the exception of investments, the other option is to support economic growth with a positive impact on the relative level of public debt. At the same time it shows that bankruptcies of national economies happen in clusters and linked adjacent to each other due to financial market integration. The aim of this article is to show possible ways of solution of consequences of financial crisis and he high debt levels of advanced economies.

  16. Colder or Warmer?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wanzy

    2010-01-01

    After the record heat wave this summer,some forecasters said this winter could be the coldest one in the last 1,000 years,which also would influence China and some other countries. Extremely cold weather in winter,of course,the most convenient and easy method to keep warm is to wear thick warm

  17. Making Geographical Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, John

    2015-01-01

    Although there are surprisingly few academic books about geography with the term "future" or "futures" in their titles, this paper indicates that for much of the twentieth century geographers contributed to important discussions about the shape of worlds to come. The paper offers a review of these debates within Anglo-American…

  18. Futurism 1984: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hood, Florence F.

    This overview of futurism defines it as a movement believing that a positive future world may be created through wise decision-making and futuristic planning. Present societal conditions have provided an impetus for a futuristic focus, and various authors, think tanks, techniques, and organizations have contributed to the wide acclaim and respect…

  19. Warmer, deeper, and greener mixed layers in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over the last 50 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Elodie; Raitsos, Dionysios E; Antoine, David

    2016-02-01

    Shifts in global climate resonate in plankton dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, and marine food webs. We studied these linkages in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASG), which hosts extensive phytoplankton blooms. We show that phytoplankton abundance increased since the 1960s in parallel to a deepening of the mixed layer and a strengthening of winds and heat losses from the ocean, as driven by the low frequency of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In parallel to these bottom-up processes, the top-down control of phytoplankton by copepods decreased over the same time period in the western NASG, following sea surface temperature changes typical of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). While previous studies have hypothesized that climate-driven warming would facilitate seasonal stratification of surface waters and long-term phytoplankton increase in subpolar regions, here we show that deeper mixed layers in the NASG can be warmer and host a higher phytoplankton biomass. These results emphasize that different modes of climate variability regulate bottom-up (NAO control) and top-down (AMO control) forcing on phytoplankton at decadal timescales. As a consequence, different relationships between phytoplankton, zooplankton, and their physical environment appear subject to the disparate temporal scale of the observations (seasonal, interannual, or decadal). The prediction of phytoplankton response to climate change should be built upon what is learnt from observations at the longest timescales.

  20. World Wind

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — World Wind allows any user to zoom from satellite altitude into any place on Earth, leveraging high resolution LandSat imagery and SRTM elevation data to experience...

  1. Orographic cirrus in the future climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Joos

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available A cloud resolving model (CRM is used to investigate the formation of orographic cirrus clouds in the current and future climate. The formation of cirrus clouds depends on a variety of dynamical and thermodynamical processes, which act on different scales. First, the capability of the CRM in realistically simulating orographic cirrus clouds has been tested by comparing the simulated results to aircraft measurements of an orographic cirrus cloud. The influence of a warmer climate on the microphysical and optical properties of cirrus clouds has been investigated by initializing the CRM with vertical profiles of horizontal wind, temperature and moisture from IPCC A1B simulations for the current climate and for the period 2090–2099 for two regions representative for North and South America. In a future climate, the increase in moisture dampens the vertical propagation of gravity waves and the occurring vertical velocities. Together with higher temperatures fewer ice crystals nucleate homogeneously. Assuming that the relative humidity does not change in a warmer climate the specific humidity in the model is increased. This increase in specific humidity in a warmer climate results in a higher ice water content. The net effect of a reduced ice crystal number concentration and a higher ice water content is an increased optical depth.

  2. Virtual Worlds

    OpenAIRE

    Novák, František

    2009-01-01

    The bachelor's thesis is focused on highlighting the development of virtual worlds. The paper summarizes the evolution of virtual reality. Current virtual worlds are compared in fundamental aspects, such as sociology, economics and education. Social sphere describes the interaction in virtual reality and its specialities. Economical sphere is focused on comparison of real and virtual economies, including their economic indicators. Educational sphere describes the sciences, which are best usea...

  3. Engaged World-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robertson, Maria Louise Bønnelykke; Rubow, Cecilie

    2013-01-01

    Drawing on fieldwork in Kiribati and the Cook Islands, this chapter shows how atoll islands and tropical lagoons, considered highly vulnerable to present and future sea level rise, are extraordinary malleable socio-natural worlds. Revolving around sacred islands submerged by sea water, ancient fish...... traps, whales, coastal protection devices, and scientific findings of sand sedimentation processes and sea level rise, we demonstrate how the island worlds are constantly made and remade by social and natural forces, and somewhat surprisingly, how the rising sea is conspicuously absent at many island...

  4. Neotropical eocene coastal floras and [sup 18]O/[sup 16]O-estimated warmer vs. cooler equatorial waters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, A. (Kent State Univ., OH (United States))

    1994-03-01

    The history of the earth's sea-surface temperature (SST) in equatorial regions during the Tertiary is unsettled because of uncertainty as to the presence and extent of glaciers during the Paleogene. The [sup 16]O trapped in glaciers and subsequently released back to the ocean basins as meltwater during interglacials affects the [sup 18]O/[sup 16]O ratio of sea water, one of the variables that must be known for oxygen isotope paleotemperature analysis of calcareous fossils. Estimates of SST range from [approximately]18 to 20 C, assuming an ice-free earth, to [approximately]28 C assuming glaciers were present in the Paleogene. Low latitude SST presently averages 28C, so the former estimate gives a value 8 to 10 C cooler than present, while the latter gives a value as warm or slightly warmer than present. The figures are important for interpreting terrestrial vegetational history because the temperature differential between low and high latitudes is a major factor in determining global climates through the control of poleward transfer of heat. The middle( ) to late Eocene Gatuncillo Formation palynoflora of Panama was deposited at the ocean-continental interface at [approximately]9[degrees]N latitude. The individual components and paleocommunities are distinctly tropical and similar to the present vegetation along the Atlantic coast of southern Central America. This is consistent with data emerging from other recently studied tropical coastal biotas and represents a contribution from paleobiology toward eventually resolving the problem of Eocene equatorial marine environments. Collectively, the evidence is beginning to favor a model of Eocene SST near present values. 50 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  5. The Africana world

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    diaspora in order for the unity and renaissance dreamed of to become a reality. The chapters in Africana World: From Fragmentation to Unity and Renaissance address colonial and postcolonial African realities with a view to present a holistic and transcontinental appraisal of questions, issues...... and challenges that confront the continent. Contributors are drawn from different parts of the world - Africa, Europe and the Americas - and it is this eclectic range of scholarly views that lends a rich historicity to the meaning of Africanity. The book contains multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary...... engagements with Africa's rich cultural heritage, its lingering contemporary challenges, its multifaceted systems of knowledge and its future in the exciting context of the twenty-first century. Africana World: From Fragmentation to Unity and Renaissance is put together in order to help develop the study...

  6. The Africana world

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    diaspora in order for the unity and renaissance dreamed of to become a reality. The chapters in Africana World: From Fragmentation to Unity and Renaissance address colonial and postcolonial African realities with a view to present a holistic and transcontinental appraisal of questions, issues...... engagements with Africa's rich cultural heritage, its lingering contemporary challenges, its multifaceted systems of knowledge and its future in the exciting context of the twenty-first century. Africana World: From Fragmentation to Unity and Renaissance is put together in order to help develop the study...... and challenges that confront the continent. Contributors are drawn from different parts of the world - Africa, Europe and the Americas - and it is this eclectic range of scholarly views that lends a rich historicity to the meaning of Africanity. The book contains multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary...

  7. World Englishes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张严心; 周丽

    2014-01-01

    In the current days, the search for information and the need for global communication have already promoted English from being the language of people in different countries as the international language. This essay will give some arguments about the inevitability of variety of world Englishes and its characteristics, and then explain that what Standard English is and examples about the standards in English.

  8. When Virtual Worlds Expand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bainbridge, William Sims

    The future of a virtual world depends on whether it can grow in subjective size, cultural content, and numbers of human participants. In one form of growth, exemplified by Second Life, the scope of a world increases gradually as new sponsors pay for new territory and inhabitants create content. A very different form of growth is sudden expansion, as when World of Warcraft (WoW) added entire new continents in its Burning Crusade and Lich King expansions (Lummis and Kern 2006, 2008; Corneliussen and Rettberg 2008; Sims et al. 2008). Well-established gamelike worlds have often undergone many expansions. Both the pioneer science fiction game Anarchy Online, which was launched in 2001, and Star Wars Galaxies dating from 2003, have had three, and EVE Online also from 2003 has had nine, although smaller ones. This chapter reports research on WoW's 2008 Lich King expansion, using both quantitative and qualitative methods, in order to develop theoretical ideas of the implications of expansion for virtual worlds.

  9. Comment: On the World's Energy Situation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouzminow, V. A.

    1979-01-01

    Reviewed, in this editorial, are the present world energy situation and estimates of the prospects of supplying mankind with the amount of energy necessary for future socioeconomic development. Stressed is the role of different energy sources in the present and future energy balance of the world. (BT)

  10. Orographic cirrus in a future climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Joos

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available A cloud resolving model (CRM is used to investigate the formation of orographic cirrus clouds in the current and future climate. The formation of cirrus clouds depends on a variety of dynamical and thermodynamical processes, which act on different scales. First, the capability of the CRM in realistically simulating orographic cirrus clouds has been tested by comparing the simulated results to aircraft measurements of an orographic cirrus cloud. The influence of a warmer climate on the microphysical and optical properties of cirrus clouds has been investigated by initializing the CRM with vertical profiles of horizontal wind, potential temperature and equivalent potential temperature, respectively. The vertical profiles are extracted from IPCC A1B simulations for the current climate and for the period 2090–2099 for two regions representative for North and South America. The influence of additional moisture in a future climate on the propagation of gravity waves and the formation of orographic cirrus could be estimated. In a future climate, the increase in moisture dampens the vertical propagation of gravity waves and the occurring vertical velocities in the moist simulations. Together with higher temperatures fewer ice crystals nucleate homogeneously. Assuming that the relative humidity does not change in a warmer climate the specific humidity in the model is increased. This increase in specific humidity in a warmer climate results in a higher ice water content. The net effect of a reduced ice crystal number concentration and a higher ice water content is an increased optical depth. However, in some moist simulations dynamical changes contribute to changes in the ice water content, ice crystal number concentration and optical depth. For the corresponding dry simulations dynamical changes are more pronounced leading to a decreased optical depth in a future climate in some cases.

  11. A hypothesis and a case-study projection of an influence of MJO modulation on boreal-summer tropical cyclogenesis in a warmer climate with a global non-hydrostatic model: a transition toward the central Pacific?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KAZUYOSHI eOOUCHI

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The eastward shift of the enhanced activity of tropical cyclone to the central Pacific is a robust projection result for a future warmer climate, and is shared by most of the state-of-the-art climate models. The shift has been argued to originate from the underlying El-Ñino like sea-surface temperature (SST forcing. This study explores the possibility that the change of the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO can be an additional, if not alternative, contributor to the shift, using the dataset of Yamada et al. (2010 from a global non-hydrostatic 14-km grid mesh time-slice experiment for a boreal-summer case. Within the case-study framework, we develop the hypothesis that an eastward shift of the high-activity area of the MJO, as manifested itself as the significant intra-seasonal modulation of the enhanced precipitation, is associated with the increased tropical cyclogenesis potential over the North central Pacific by regulating cyclonic relative vorticity and vertical shear. In contrast, the North Indian Ocean and maritime continent undergo relatively diminished genesis potential. An implication is that uncertainty in the future tropical cyclogenesis in some part of the Pacific and other ocean basins could be reduced if projection of the MJO and its connection with the underlying SST environment can be better understood and constrained by the improvement of climate models.

  12. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Zhao

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs. Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases – cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of −3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071–2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  13. Women: The Fifth World. Headline Series 248.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulding, Elise

    The document addresses past, present, and future issues concerning women througout the world. It is presented in seven chapters. Chapter I discusses women as the invisible "fifth world." The author contends that this fifth world exists, uncounted and unassisted, on every continent. Chapter II traces the role of women throughout history. The…

  14. The Virtual Future

    CERN Document Server

    Bainbridge, William Sims

    2011-01-01

    The newest communication technologies are profoundly changing the world's politics, economies, and cultures, but the specific implications of online gameworlds remain mysterious. The Virtual Future employs theories and methods from social science to explore nine very different virtual futures: The Matrix Online, Tabula Rasa, Anarchy Online, Entropia Universe, Star Trek Online, EVE Online, Star Wars Galaxies, World of Warcraft: Burning Crusade, and The Chronicles of Riddick. Each presents a different picture of how technology and society could evolve in coming centuries, but one theme runs thro

  15. Future of color

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladson, Jack A.; Turner, Laraine B.; Green-Armytage, Paul; Hunt, Robert W. G.

    2002-06-01

    We live in a world in which styles and technologies are nearly the same from place to place, but change daily. This changing global culture is unprecedented, and reinforced by emerging new technologies that affect us all. The Future of Color, examines new technologies, how they will affect the selection and promulgation of color in the near future, and their impact upon us. We examine this topic from many perspectives - technological, business and commercial. Most importantly, as we understand how our world is emerging, we can position ourselves strategically for tomorrow.

  16. Impacts of Climate Changes on the Future Groundwater Storage in the High Plains Aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, M. H.; Wu, W. Y.; Wada, Y.; Reager, J. T., II; Famiglietti, J. S.; Yeh, P. J. F.; Ducharne, A.

    2015-12-01

    Groundwater contributes approximately 40% of global freshwater use, and it is critical for water supply and associated food production in arid or semi-arid areas during dry seasons. The increasing demand for water and finite water sources have led to long-term groundwater depletion, creating an obstacle to sustainability in several regions of the world under the pressures of population growth and climate change. The High Plains Aquifer System has an area of 450,000 km2, and is the most pumped aquifer and one of the most important agricultural areas in the United States. In this study, we use coupled climate-hydrological model simulations from the NCAR Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project to investigate the groundwater storage changes in the High Plains Aquifer under future climate changes and also to explore how such groundwater storage changes might in turn affect the climate through land-atmosphere coupling. Preliminary results indicate that not only the amount of groundwater recharge declines, but the seasonal variations of groundwater recharge also become smaller, resulting in widespread water table decline in a future warmer climate. We will explore how such variations associate to projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, and feedback to the climate.

  17. Sophie's World

    OpenAIRE

    Nadja Dobnik

    1999-01-01

    ln this contribution, the author of­ fers a description of the book Zofia's World, by the Norwegian professor of philosophy, Jostein Gaarder, a work which is treated in literary theory mainly as an interesting post-modernist novel, since it would appear to be a presentation of the history of philosophy in the popular form of a novel. The author of this paper, however, sees far more in the book, which is indeed an exceptional philosophy textbook for independent study. It is, really, a correspo...

  18. Estimating present climate in a warming world: a model-based approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raeisaenen, J.; Ruokolainen, L. [University of Helsinki (Finland). Division of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysics

    2008-09-30

    Weather services base their operational definitions of 'present' climate on past observations, using a 30-year normal period such as 1961-1990 or 1971-2000. In a world with ongoing global warming, however, past data give a biased estimate of the actual present-day climate. Here we propose to correct this bias with a 'delta change' method, in which model-simulated climate changes and observed global mean temperature changes are used to extrapolate past observations forward in time, to make them representative of present or future climate conditions. In a hindcast test for the years 1991-2002, the method works well for temperature, with a clear improvement in verification statistics compared to the case in which the hindcast is formed directly from the observations for 1961-1990. However, no improvement is found for precipitation, for which the signal-to-noise ratio between expected anthropogenic changes and interannual variability is much lower than for temperature. An application of the method to the present (around the year 2007) climate suggests that, as a geographical average over land areas excluding Antarctica, 8-9 months per year and 8-9 years per decade can be expected to be warmer than the median for 1971-2000. Along with the overall warming, a substantial increase in the frequency of warm extremes at the expense of cold extremes of monthly-to-annual temperature is expected.

  19. Virtual World Astrosociology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bainbridge, William Sims

    2010-01-01

    This essay introduces the opportunity for theory development and even empirical research on some aspects of astrosociology through today's online virtual worlds. The examples covered present life on other planets or in space itself, in a manner that can be experienced by the user and where the user's reactions may simulate to some degree future human behavior in real extraterrestrial environments: Tabula Rasa, Anarchy Online, Entropia Universe, EVE Online, StarCraft and World of Warcraft. Ethnographic exploration of these computerized environments raises many questions about the social science both of space exploration and of direct contact with extraterrestrials. The views expressed in this essay do not necessarily represent the views of the National Science Foundation or the United States.

  20. World energy outlook 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-11-07

    The World Energy Outlook 2006 sets out the IEA's latest projections of world energy supply and demand to 2030 for oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear and electricity, plus projections on energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions. The publication is in three parts. Part A: The reference scenario has chapters entitled: Key assumptions; Global Energy Trends; Oil market outlook; Gas market outlook; Coal market outlook; and Power sector outlook. Part B: The alternative policy scenario contains chapters on: Mapping a new energy future; Assessing the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies; Deepening the analysis results by sector; and Getting to and going beyond the alternative policy scenario. Part C: Focus on key topics contains: The impact of higher energy prices; Current trends in oil and gas investment; Prospects for nuclear power; The outlook for biofuels; Energy for coking in developing countries; and Focus on Brazil. 224 figs., 84 tabs., 5 annexes.

  1. World energy insight

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-09-15

    The 21st World Energy Congress offers a unique opportunity for all stake-holders of the energy sector to meet and exchange visions, strategies and practices, during four days of very intensive and interesting sessions, round-tables and exhibitions. More than 3,000 energy leaders gather from around the world from both developed and developing countries, from all types of energy, from public and private companies and government organisations, in order to think together about how to bring about a sustainable and acceptable energy future. The truth is that nobody has the choice any longer. All energy leaders have to take decisions every day, and they need to have a clear analysis of what is at stake, what the risks are, and what the solutions can be.

  2. Potential benefits of early vigor and changes in phenology in wheat to adapt to warmer and drier climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Asseng, S.

    2010-01-01

    Developing crop cultivars with novel traits could help agriculture adapt to climate change. As introducing new traits into crops is expensive and time consuming, it is helpful to develop methods which can test whether a potential new plant trait increases or maintains production in future climates.

  3. FuturICT

    CERN Document Server

    Helbing, Dirk; Lukowicz, Paul

    2012-01-01

    FuturlCT is a FET Flagship project using collective, participatory research, integrated across ICT, the social sciences and complexity science, to design socio-inspired technology and develop a science of global, socially interactive systems. The project will bring together, on a global level, Big Data, new modelling techniques and new forms of interaction, leading to a new understanding of society and its coevolution with technology. It aims to understand, explore and manage our complex, connected world in a more sustainable and resilient way. FuturICT is motivated by the fact that ubiquitous communication and sensing blur the boundaries between the physical and digital worlds, creating unparalleled opportunities for understanding the socio-economic fabric of our world, and for empowering humanity to make informed, responsible decisions for its future. The intimate, complex and dynamic relationship between global, networked ICT systems and human society directly influences the complexity and manageability of...

  4. World helicopter market study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleary, B.; Pearson, R. W.; Greenwood, S. W.; Kaplan, L.

    1978-01-01

    The extent of the threat to the US helicopter industry posed by a determined effort by foreign manufacturers, European companies in particular, to supply their own domestic markets and also to penetrate export markets, including the USA is assessed. Available data on US and world markets for civil and military uses are collated and presented in both graphic and tabular form showing the past history of production and markets and, where forecasts are available, anticipated future trends. The data are discussed on an item-by-item basis and inferences are drawn in as much depth as appears justified.

  5. World-Wide Information Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuelson, Kjell A. H. W.

    The future paths of research and development towards world-wide, automated information networks in full operation are examined. From international networked planning and projects under way it appears that exploratory as well as normative approaches have been taken. To some extent adequate technolgical facilities have already come into existence…

  6. Wildfires in a warmer climate: Emission fluxes, emission heights, and black carbon concentrations in 2090-2099

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veira, A.; Lasslop, G.; Kloster, S.

    2016-04-01

    Global warming is expected to considerably impact wildfire activity and aerosol emission release in the future. Due to their complexity, the future interactions between climate change, wildfire activity, emission release, and atmospheric aerosol processes are still uncertain. Here we use the process-based fire model SPITFIRE within the global vegetation model JSBACH to simulate wildfire activity for present-day climate conditions and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The modeled fire emission fluxes and fire radiative power serve as input for the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2, which has been extended by a semiempirical plume height parametrization. Our results indicate a general increase in extratropical and a decrease in tropical wildfire activity at the end of the 21st century. Changes in emission fluxes are most pronounced for the strongest warming scenario RCP8.5 (+49% in the extratropics, -37% in the tropics). Tropospheric black carbon (BC) concentrations are similarly affected by changes in emission fluxes and changes in climate conditions with regional variations of up to -50% to +100%. In the Northern Hemispheric extratropics, we attribute a mean increase in aerosol optical thickness of +0.031±0.002 to changes in wildfire emissions. Due to the compensating effects of fire intensification and more stable atmospheric conditions, global mean emission heights change by at most 0.3 km with only minor influence on BC long-range transport. The changes in wildfire emission fluxes for the RCP8.5 scenario, however, may largely compensate the projected reduction in anthropogenic BC emissions by the end of the 21st century.

  7. Women and Peace [And] Vienna Conference: Women and Disarmament [And] Women, Power and Alternative Futures, Part I: Women and World Order [And] Women, Power and Alternative Futures, Part II: Women and Power. The Whole Earth Papers. Vol. 1, No. 6-8, Spring, 1978.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Josephine; Mische, Patricia

    Four papers explore the role of women in promoting a peaceful world order. The volume is intended to increase understanding of the linkages between local and global issues, and to examine them as interrelated issues in an interdependent world. The first paper, "Women and Peace," is a historical analysis of the role of individual women, feminists,…

  8. Warmer winters modulate life history and energy storage but do not affect sensitivity to a widespread pesticide in an aquatic insect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arambourou, Hélène; Stoks, Robby

    2015-10-01

    Despite the increased attention for the effects of pesticides under global warming no studies tested how winter warming affects subsequent sensitivity to pesticides. Winter warming is expected to cause delayed negative effects when it increases metabolic rates and thereby depletes energy reserves. Using a common-garden experiment, we investigated the combined effect of a 4 °C increase in winter temperature and subsequent exposure to chlorpyrifos in the aquatic larvae of replicated low- and high-latitude European populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. The warmer winter (8 °C) resulted in a higher winter survival and higher growth rates compared to the cold winter (4 °C) commonly experienced by European high-latitude populations. Low-latitude populations were better at coping with the warmer winter, indicating thermal adaptation to the local winter temperatures. Subsequent chlorpyrifos exposure at 20 °C induced strong negative effects on survival, growth rate, lipid content and acetylcholinesterase activity while phenoloxidase activity increased. These pesticide effects were not affected by winter warming. Our results suggest that for species where winter warming has positive effects on life history, no delayed effects on the sensitivity to subsequent pesticide exposure should be expected.

  9. Future Contingents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter; Hasle., Per F. V.

    2015-01-01

    will be a sea-battle tomorrow” could serve as standard examples. What could be called the problem of future contingents concerns how to ascribe truth-values to such statements. If there are several possible decisions out of which one is going to be made freely tomorrow, can there be a truth now about which one......, ‘future contingents’ could also refer to future contingent objects. A statement like “The first astronaut to go to Mars will have a unique experience” could be analyzed as referring to an object not yet existing, supposing that one day in the distant future some person will indeed travel to Mars......, but that person has not yet been born. The notion of ‘future contingent objects’ involves important philosophical questions, for instance the issue of ethical obligations towards future generations, quantification over ‘future contingent objects’ etc. However, this entry is confined to the study of future...

  10. Future Contingents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter; Hasle., Per F. V.

    2011-01-01

    will be a sea-battle tomorrow” could serve as standard examples. What could be called the problem of future contingents concerns how to ascribe truth-values to such statements. If there are several possible decisions out of which one is going to be made freely tomorrow, can there be a truth now about which one......, ‘future contingents’ could also refer to future contingent objects. A statement like “The first astronaut to go to Mars will have a unique experience” could be analyzed as referring to an object not yet existing, supposing that one day in the distant future some person will indeed travel to Mars......, but that person has not yet been born. The notion of ‘future contingent objects’ involves important philosophical questions, for instance the issue of ethical obligations towards future generations, quantification over ‘future contingent objects’ etc. However, this entry is confined to the study of future...

  11. Future accelerators (?)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Womersley

    2003-08-21

    I describe the future accelerator facilities that are currently foreseen for electroweak scale physics, neutrino physics, and nuclear structure. I will explore the physics justification for these machines, and suggest how the case for future accelerators can be made.

  12. Some Dust/Ocean Connections - Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duce, R. A.

    2015-12-01

    Atmospheric dust has been the subject of communications for more than 3000 years, since the ancient Chinese book Chronicles Reported on Bamboo Shoots in 1150 BC. Similar reports of hwangsa and woo-tou in ancient Korean and kosa in ancient Japanese literature also indicated major Asian dust events in those areas. Western observers noted dust storms in India and Afghanistan in the early 1800s, while in the 1840s Darwin surmised that Sahara dust could be an important component of marine sedimentation in the North Atlantic. More recent interest has focused on the importance of dust as a source of the nutrients iron and phosphorus in the global ocean and the role of iron as a limiting nutrient in many areas of the surface ocean. While significant progress has been made in the past 25 years in identifying important dust/ocean connections, many issues remain. Included are the relative dearth of long-term measurements of atmospheric dust (and iron and phosphorus) over and deposition to the ocean, especially in the southern hemisphere; comparisons between modeled and measured deposition of dust to the ocean; and the solubility of iron and phosphorus (and thus their availability as nutrients) after the mineral matter enters the ocean. Addressing these problems will certainly help to provide more accurate estimates of the input of dust to the ocean and its impacts. However, future changes in dust emissions in a warmer world as well as changes in the acid/base environment that mineral dust experiences during its transport and deposition as a result of emission controls on atmospheric NOx and SO2 are two facors that may change the input of these nutrients to the ocean and their impacts in the coming years. These and other issues will be reviewed in this paper.

  13. Larvae of the coral eating crown-of-thorns starfish, Acanthaster planci in a warmer-high CO2 ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamya, Pamela Z; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Hardy, Natasha; Mos, Benjamin; Uthicke, Sven; Byrne, Maria

    2014-11-01

    Outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), Acanthaster planci, contribute to major declines of coral reef ecosystems throughout the Indo-Pacific. As the oceans warm and decrease in pH due to increased anthropogenic CO2 production, coral reefs are also susceptible to bleaching, disease and reduced calcification. The impacts of ocean acidification and warming may be exacerbated by COTS predation, but it is not known how this major predator will fare in a changing ocean. Because larval success is a key driver of population outbreaks, we investigated the sensitivities of larval A. planci to increased temperature (2-4 °C above ambient) and acidification (0.3-0.5 pH units below ambient) in flow-through cross-factorial experiments (3 temperature × 3 pH/pCO2 levels). There was no effect of increased temperature or acidification on fertilization or very early development. Larvae reared in the optimal temperature (28 °C) were the largest across all pH treatments. Development to advanced larva was negatively affected by the high temperature treatment (30 °C) and by both experimental pH levels (pH 7.6, 7.8). Thus, planktonic life stages of A. planci may be negatively impacted by near-future global change. Increased temperature and reduced pH had an additive negative effect on reducing larval size. The 30 °C treatment exceeded larval tolerance regardless of pH. As 30 °C sea surface temperatures may become the norm in low latitude tropical regions, poleward migration of A. planci may be expected as they follow optimal isotherms. In the absence of acclimation or adaptation, declines in low latitude populations may occur. Poleward migration will be facilitated by strong western boundary currents, with possible negative flow-on effects on high latitude coral reefs. The contrasting responses of the larvae of A. planci and those of its coral prey to ocean acidification and warming are considered in context with potential future change in tropical reef ecosystems.

  14. Electrical futures past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gooday, Graeme J N

    2005-12-01

    Futurist writing about technology emerged in the late 19th century at the same time as new kinds of electrical technology were making utopian futures seem practically attainable. Electrical writers and novelists alike thus borrowed from the popular "science" fiction of Jules Verne, Edward Bellamy and others to try to create self-fulfilling prophecies of a future in which electrical gadgets and machines met all major practical needs of civilization. To the extent that many parts of our world are populated by the hardware that they forecast, they succeeded in their goal.

  15. Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehner, Flavio; Coats, Sloan; Stocker, Thomas F.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Raible, Christoph C.; Smerdon, Jason E.

    2017-07-01

    The large socioeconomic costs of droughts make them a crucial target for impact assessments of climate change scenarios. Using multiple drought metrics and a set of simulations with the Community Earth System Model targeting 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial global mean temperatures, we investigate changes in aridity and the risk of consecutive drought years. If warming is limited to 2°C, these simulations suggest little change in drought risk for the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains compared to present day. In the Mediterranean and central Europe, however, drought risk increases significantly for both 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets, and the additional 0.5°C of the 2°C climate leads to significantly higher drought risk. Our study suggests that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, as aspired to by the Paris Climate Agreement, may have benefits for future drought risk but that such benefits may be regional and in some cases highly uncertain.

  16. The potential impacts of migratory difficulty, including warmer waters and altered flow conditions, on the reproductive success of salmonid fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenkes, Miriam; Shiels, Holly A; Fitzpatrick, John L; Nudds, Robert L

    2016-03-01

    Climate change and urbanisation of watercourses affect water temperatures and current flow velocities in river systems on a global scale. This represents a particularly critical issue for migratory fish species with complex life histories that use rivers to reproduce. Salmonids are migratory keystone species that provide substantial economical value to ecosystems and human societies. Consequently, a comprehensive understanding of the effects of environmental stressors on their reproductive success is critical in order to ensure their continued abundance during future climatic change. Salmonids are capital breeders, relying entirely on endogenous energy stores to fuel return migration to their natal spawning sites and reproduction upon arrival. Metabolic rates and cost of transport en-route increase with temperature and at extreme temperatures, swimming is increasingly fuelled anaerobically, resulting in an oxygen debt and reduced capacity to recover from exhaustive exercise. Thermally challenged salmonids also produce less viable gametes, which themselves are affected by water temperature after release. Passage through hydrological barriers and temperature changes both affect energy expenditure. As a result, important energetic tradeoffs emerge between extra energy used during migration and that available for other facets of the reproductive cycle, such as reproductive competition and gamete production. However, studies identifying these tradeoffs are extremely sparse. This review focuses on the specific locomotor responses of salmonids to thermal and hydrological challenges, identifying gaps in our knowledge and highlighting the potential implications for key aspects of their reproduction.

  17. Perceptions of Talented Students in Their Visual Representations about the Future World and Technology (Üstün Yetenekli Öğrencilerin Görsel Anlatımlarında Geleceğin Dünyasına ve Teknolojisine İlişkin Algıları

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Duygu Erişti

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose and significance: The present study aimed at investigating talented students’ artistic representations and perceptions regarding the future world and technology through their animated designs according to their design-based representations. A learning environment which allows talented students to use their ability, thoughts and creativity in the process of design-based instructional activities is of great interest for them. It is important for talented students to have instructional experiences which provide independent and unique learning opportunities and special application areas that allow these students to show their abilities (CfBT, 2008. Results: The participants of the study were talented elementary school students attending the Education Programs for Talented Students (EPTS at Anadolu University. The criterion sampling method was used to select the research participants. The criterion for selecting the participants was attendance in the course of ‘Computer-Aided Graphics Design’ offered in the EPTS. The participants included a total of 35 elementary school 6th, 7th and 8th grade talented students. The study was conducted in three phases: instruction process, design process and evaluation process. Some preliminary preparations related to the design program were carried out considering that the students would use them while doing animated designs through the instruction process. The instruction phase involved an animated representation study during which the students designed their own animations. In the last phase, all the animate designs of the talented students were analyzed. The thematic analysis based on qualitative research method along with art-based inquiry was used. The thematic coding system for analyzing concepts revealed from the research data was implemented. The visual language used in pictorial representations produce messages, with its specialized codes. The degree of students’ understanding and explaining

  18. The World Needs a New Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prensky, Marc

    2014-01-01

    The author proposes that today's existing, world-wide curriculum--based on offering roughly the same math, language arts, science, and social studies to all--is not what is required for the future, and is hurting rather than helping the world's students. Math, language arts, science, and social studies, he argues, are really "proxies"…

  19. Strategy implications of world gas market dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijermars, R.

    2011-01-01

    Global trends – past and future – of world natural gas consumption, production, reserves, and prices are highlighted here analyzing the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, the BP Energy Outlook 2011, and the latest natural gas data from the world’s major energy agencies. Growing demand and d

  20. Strategy implications of world gas market dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijermars, R.

    2011-01-01

    Global trends – past and future – of world natural gas consumption, production, reserves, and prices are highlighted here analyzing the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, the BP Energy Outlook 2011, and the latest natural gas data from the world’s major energy agencies. Growing demand and d

  1. Current World Geostrategic Posture and Its Prospect

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lin Limin

    2004-01-01

    @@ Being affected by Iraq war, the Korean nuclear crisis, the readjustment of the U.S. military strategy and in-depth development of terrorism and anti-terrorist struggles, the world geostrategic posture has undergone great changes. To observe and analyze these new changes will help us better understand the future trends of the world geostrategic posture.

  2. The World Needs a New Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prensky, Marc

    2014-01-01

    The author proposes that today's existing, world-wide curriculum--based on offering roughly the same math, language arts, science, and social studies to all--is not what is required for the future, and is hurting rather than helping the world's students. Math, language arts, science, and social studies, he argues, are really "proxies"…

  3. Investment Returns of the Shanghai World Expo?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Yong; Wang Xi

    2010-01-01

    For China, Shanghai World Expo is the biggest international carnival after Beijing Olympic Games. It was nearly 150 years ago when the first World Expo was held in United Kingdom in 1851, and now it's China's turn to be the host country to exhibit the future development of mankind.

  4. Witnessing the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torben Elgaard Jensen

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores the phenomenon of witnessing the future through a case study of how a Scandinavian new economy firm managed to persuade a number of business journalists that it was "the future". It describes the procedures and rhetorical strategies that the manager deployed to turn the journalists into witnesses. It compares the manager's strategy to other cases of effective witnessing in courtrooms and in science. It concludes that the manager's persuasiveness is derived from his ability to articulate a series of pointed contrasts between the attractive working life within the firm and the problematic work life elsewhere. Finally, it notes that the manager's strategy enacts a time-world characterised by dramatic epochal changes, which is radically different from the more stable and knowable time-world that is enacted in ordinary scientific discourses. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs070119

  5. A Creepy World

    CERN Document Server

    Sornette, Didier

    2014-01-01

    Using the mechanics of creep in material sciences as a metaphor, we present a general framework to understand the evolution of financial, economic and social systems and to construct scenarios for the future. In a nutshell, highly non-linear out-of-equilibrium systems subjected to exogenous perturbations tend to exhibit a long phase of slow apparent stable evolution, which are nothing but slow maturations towards instabilities, failures and changes of regimes. With examples from history where a small event had a cataclysmic consequence, we propose a novel view of the current state of the world via the logical scenarios that derive, avoiding the traps of an illusionary stability and simple linear extrapolation. The endogenous scenarios are "muddling along", "managing through" and "blood red abyss". The exogenous scenarios are "painful adjustment" and "golden east".

  6. World energy outlook 2014

    CERN Document Server

    International Energy Agency. Paris

    2014-01-01

    The global energy landscape is evolving at a rapid pace, reshaping long-held expectations for our energy future. The 2014 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) will incorporate all the latest data and developments to produce a comprehensive and authoritative analysis of medium- and longer-term energy trends. It will complement a full set of energy projections – which extend from today through, for the first time, the year 2040 – with strategic insights into their meaning for energy security, the economy and the environment. Oil, natural gas, coal, renewables and energy efficiency will be covered, along with updates on trends in energy-related CO2 emissions, fossil-fuel and renewable energy subsidies, and universal access to modern energy services.

  7. World Bioenergy 2012. Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-11-01

    The conference of 2012 had contributions on the following themes: A: World Pellets 2012, B: Market outlook, C: Energy systems, D: Transportation, E: World biorefinery 2012, F: Sustainable bioenergy day. 52 contributions in A - D. A: World Pellets 2012 is an integrated part of World Bioenergy 2012. A three day 'conference in the conference' covering all aspects of pellets: raw material potentials, innovative pellets production systems, torrefaction, new combustion technologies, trade and market development, health and safety aspects, etc. B) Market outlook: Policy and targets for renewable energy to find an alternative to fossil energy are being put in place, increasing the demand for sustainable modern bioenergy. Global trade and improved logistics open up to the markets. To facilitate international trade in bioenergy commodities, new trading places and indexes are needed, as well as generally accepted standards. Supply and demand must meet to guarantee stable prices. In this session you learn all about current market development, including drivers like incentives and policies. C) Energy Systems: Modern bioenergy is a young industry. Therefore, technical development is rapid, with many new innovations. This session focuses on technical development in the whole bioenergy chain, from harvesting of forest residues to combustion technologies and co-firing. Optimal use of biomass through district heating or cooling - small scale and large scale - and CHP technology for electricity production. D) Transportation: Sustainable transports are one of the key challenges of tomorrow. Can we transport biomass as well as other products sustainably and at what costs? Which are the future fuels for transports and when will biofuels be viewed as profitable? Biofuels for transport are under rapid development with new methods, producers and feedstock entering the markets. The future biofuels will be produced in biorefineries, to increase profitability and optimize feed

  8. World Energy Outlook 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-11-09

    The world appears to be emerging from the worst economic crisis in decades. Many countries have made pledges under the Copenhagen Accord to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Commitments have also been made by the G-20 and APEC to phase out inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies. Are we, at last, on the path to a secure, reliable and environmentally sustainable energy system? Updated projections of energy demand, production, trade and investment, fuel by fuel and region by region to 2035 are provided in the 2010 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO). It includes, for the first time, a new scenario that anticipates future actions by governments to meet the commitments they have made to tackle climate change and growing energy insecurity. WEO-2010 shows: what more must be done and spent to achieve the goal of the Copenhagen Accord to limit the global temperature increase to 2 deg. C and how these actions would impact on oil markets; how emerging economies -- led by China and India -- will increasingly shape the global energy landscape; what role renewables can play in a clean and secure energy future; what removing fossil-fuel subsidies would mean for energy markets, climate change and state budgets; the trends in Caspian energy markets and the implications for global energy supply; the prospects for unconventional oil; and how to give the entire global population access to modern energy services. With extensive data, projections and analysis, this publication provides invaluable insights into how the energy system could evolve over the next quarter of a century. The book is essential reading for anyone with a stake in the energy sector.

  9. Stability of hemostatic proteins in canine fresh-frozen plasma thawed with a modified commercial microwave warmer or warm water bath.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pashmakova, Medora B; Barr, James W; Bishop, Micah A

    2015-05-01

    To compare stability of hemostatic proteins in canine fresh-frozen plasma (FFP) thawed with a modified commercial microwave warmer (MCM) or warm water bath (37°C; WWB) or at room temperature (22°C). Fresh-frozen plasma obtained from 8 canine donors of a commercial blood bank. A commercial microwave warmer was modified with a thermocouple to measure surface temperature of bags containing plasma. The MCM and a WWB were each used to concurrently thaw a 60-mL bag of plasma obtained from the same donor. Two 3-mL control aliquots of FFP from each donor were thawed to room temperature without use of a heating device. Concentrations of hemostatic proteins, albumin, and D-dimers; prothrombin time (PT); and activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) were determined for all samples. Significant decreases in concentrations of factors II, IX, X, XI, fibrinogen, von Willebrand factor, antithrombin, protein C, and albumin and significant increases in PT and aPTT were detected for plasma thawed with the MCM, compared with results for samples thawed with the WWB. Concentrations of factors VII, VIII, and XII were not significantly different between plasma thawed with the MCM and WWB. Concentrations of D-dimers were above the reference range for all thawed samples regardless of thawing method. No significant differences in factor concentrations were detected between control and WWB-thawed samples. Significant differences in hemostatic protein concentrations and coagulation times were detected for plasma thawed with an MCM but not between control and WWB-thawed samples. Clinical importance of these changes should be investigated.

  10. ANALYSIS ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION CONTRIBUTE TO WEATHER WARMER%试析人类耗用能源对气候变暖的贡献

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宿伯杰

    2001-01-01

    在对地球气候变暖原因的探讨中,人们较注意“温室气体”的贡献,但与“温室气体”排放几乎同时进行的巨额热量的释放也是不应忽视的;由205个国家和地区在1年内消耗的商品能源量数据,计算出每年释放的热量相当于地球接受30分钟的太阳辐射量,在绝热情况下可使全球陆地2m厚的表层、全球海洋2[k25]m深的水体和全球大气温度提高0.06℃;对上述结果进行了讨论。%Scientists pay much attention to the contribution of greenhouse gas in the research of the reasons of weather getting warmer and warmer, but almost in the same time with the release of greenhouse gas, a huge heat released; based on the commodity energy consume data of 205 countries and regions in theworld a year. The author gets a result that the heat correspond to the solar radiation energy the Earth gets in 30 minutes; in heat insulation case, this heat can make the temprature of 2m deep of all the land and the ocean on the Earth and all atmosphere rises 0.06℃; with discussion about the result.

  11. Pastoral suitability driven by future climate change along the Apennines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilla Dibari

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This work aims at evaluating the impacts of climate change on pastoral resources located along the Apennines chain. To this end, random forest machine learning model was first calibrated for the present period and then applied to future conditions, as projected by HadCM3 general circulation model, in order to simulate possible spatial variation/shift of pastoral areas in two time slices (centred on 2050 and 2080 under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Pre-existent spatial database, namely Corine land cover map and WorldClim, were integrated and harmonised in a GIS environment in order to extract climate variables (mean seasonal precipitation, mean maximum temperature of the warmest month and minimum temperature of the coldest month and response variables (presence/absence of pastures to be used as model predictors. Random forest model resulted robust and coherent to simulate pastureland suitability under current climatology (classification accuracy error=19%. Accordingly, results indicated that increases in temperatures coupled with decreases in precipitation, as simulated by HadCM3 in the future, would have impacts of great concern on potential pasture distribution. In the specific, an overall decline of pasturelands suitability is predicted by the middle of the century in both A2 (–46% and B2 (–41% along the entire chain. However, despite alarming reductions in pastures suitability along the northern (–69% and –71% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively and central Apennines (–90% under both scenarios by the end of the century, expansions are predicted along the southern areas of the chain (+96% and +105% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. This may be probably due to expansions in pastures dominated by xeric and thermophiles species, which will likely benefit from warmer and drier future conditions predicted in the southern zone of the chain by the HadCM3. Hence, the expected climate, coupled with an increasing abandonment of the

  12. Future Textiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anne-Louise Degn; Jensen, Hanne Troels Fusvad; Hansen, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Magasinet Future Textiles samler resultaterne fra projektet Future Textiles, der markedsfører området intelligente tekstiler. I magasinet kan man læse om trends, drivkræfter, udfordringer samt få ideer til nye produkter inden for intelligente tekstiler. Områder som bæredygtighed og kundetilpasning...

  13. Confronting world hunger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huddleston, B

    1983-01-01

    In 1980, per capita food supplies were less than adequate in 53 developing countries. More than half of these were the predominantly rural, low income countries of South Asia, China, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Finding the proper balance between satisfying immediate human needs and building political and economic systems in which individuals can in the future acquire the means to satisfy their own requirements is the central issue facing those in the fight against world hunger. At the international level, developed countries have responded to world hunger by raising the minimum level of food aid provided when supplies are scarce and by creating a financing facility for cereal imports. The food and agriculture sector is receiving a highe priority than before in the allocation of international development assistance, and more attention is being given to the effects of both general food subsidies and targeted nutrition programs on future agricultural output. At the national level, over 40 developing countries have requested assistance from the World Food Council for the preparation of food sector strategies. Although such measures are important, they do not directly address local problems and individual needs. For example, dietary intake tends to be lower in urban than in rural households in Latin America at the same level of income. These urban groups require health and nutrition interventions that simultaneously address their immediate need for food, clean water, and health care and their more longterm need for employment. Longterm economic development that provides adequate income to all segments of the population is the best means to combat hunger, and income security also reduces incentives for large family size. The contribution of the international community should remain the transfer of resources and the provision of technical assistance. At the individual level, the need for targeted food distribution programs continues. Greater benefit can be obtained from

  14. Future glaciation in Fennoscandia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forsstroem, L. [Oulu Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Geosciences

    1999-09-01

    Cyclic growing and melting of great ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere is typical for the Quaternary Period, and it is likely that this cycle will continue in the future. This report discusses the principal processes predicted to occur during the future glaciation which are likely to be of importance for a nuclear waste repository. It is a revised version of a synthesis of the results of two state-of-the art reports, working meetings and a seminar. Based on present knowledge, two alternative trends (A and B) can be presented for fluctuations in climate in Fennoscandia. According to forecast A the climate will gradually become colder, permitting the growth of glaciers in the mountainous areas of Norway and Sweden after 5000 years. After a minor warmer period, a greater ice advance will cover a large part of Finland around 20 000 years from now. After a new minor interstade, the ice will advance again, so that c. 60 000 years from now the Stockholm-Helsinki region will be covered by thick ice. The ice sheet will melt partially at 70 000 years AP, but then it will grow to its maximum around 100 000 years AP and cover the whole Baltic basin. Almost complete melting of the ice sheet will take place during the next interglaciation c. 120 coo years AP. According to forecast B the growth of the ice sheet will not begin for another 50 000 years, and Finland will be covered by ice about 60 000 years from now. After a minor melting, the ice sheet will enlarge and cover almost the whole Baltic basin 100 000 years from now. During the following ice minimum, at 120 000 years AP, the ice sheet will still cover northern Finland. At 150 000 years it will cover the whole Baltic basin, but then it will melt almost completely by 165 000 years from now, during the following interglaciation. In both forecasts the main changes caused by the ice sheet will be downwarping/uplift of the crust and changes in sea level. In addition, changes in the groundwater head and flux are foreseen

  15. Sustainability in a multipolar world

    OpenAIRE

    Basha i Novosejt, A.; Weterings, R.; Ridder, M De; Frinking, E.

    2010-01-01

    In its 30-Year Update of the well-known publication ‘The Limits to growth’ the Club of Rome stressed that the once debated notion of a physically limited world growth is becoming apparent in many well-documented studies. Three decades ago, the Brundtland Commission on Development and Environment initiated an international momentum to secure the needs of both present and future generations through a joint policy agenda for sustainable development. Institutions such as the United Nations played...

  16. Emerging Technology Creator of Worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Studies Quarterly ♦ Fall 2016 5 Creator of Worlds It is in the fields of biology and medicine, however, that emerging technologies will make the...out of the planning stage and into the demon- stration and usage stages—with achievements in neuroscience, biology , and immunology. In the near future...ends. For example, a recent issue of Smithsonian Magazine asked the question, “The Last Mosquito ?” Scientists have the capabilities to eradicate

  17. Explicit training in human values and social attitudes of future engineers in Spain : commentary on "preparing to understand and use science in the real world: interdisciplinary study concentrations at the technical University of Darmstadt".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabregat, Jaime

    2013-12-01

    In Spain before the 1990s there was no clear and explicit comprehensive training for future engineers with regard to social responsibility and social commitment. Following the Spanish university curricular reform, which began in the early 1990s, a number of optional subjects became available to students, concerning science, technology and society (STS), international cooperation, the environment and sustainability. The latest redefinition of the Spanish curriculum in line with the Bologna agreements has reduced the number of non-obligatory subjects, but could lead to improving preparation for social responsibility due to the requirement that the design of curricula and the assessment of students should be based on competencies, some of which include human values and attitudes.

  18. Future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffa, Robert B; Tallarida, Ronald J

    2010-01-01

    The chapters of this book summarize much of what has been done and reported regarding cancer chemotherapy-related cognitive impairment. In this chapter, we point out some future directions for investigation.

  19. Sustainable Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sustainable Futures is a voluntary program that encourages industry to use predictive models to screen new chemicals early in the development process and offers incentives to companies subject to TSCA section 5.

  20. Robot Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Anja; Grindsted Nielsen, Sally; Jochum, Elizabeth Ann;

    Robots are increasingly used in health care settings, e.g., as homecare assistants and personal companions. One challenge for personal robots in the home is acceptance. We describe an innovative approach to influencing the acceptance of care robots using theatrical performance. Live performance i...... perceive social robots interacting with humans in a future care scenario through a scripted performance. We discuss our methods and initial findings, and outline future work....

  1. Green Future

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    With the deterioration of global warming and the greenhouse effect, clean energy is the priority on the agenda of countries all over the world. This was highlighted when U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke and Energy Secretary Steven Chu visited their Chinese counterparts on July 14-17.

  2. Deploying Embodied AI into Virtual Worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, David J. H.

    The last two years have seen the start of commercial activity within virtual worlds. Unlike computer games where Non-Player-Character avatars are common, in most virtual worlds they are the exception — and until recently in Second Life they were non-existent. However there is real commercial scope for Als in these worlds — in roles from virtual sales staff and tutors to personal assistants. Deploying an embodied AI into a virtual world offers a unique opportunity to evaluate embodied Als, and to develop them within an environment where human and computer are on almost equal terms. This paper presents an architecture being used for the deployment of chatbot driven avatars within the Second Life virtual world, looks at the challenges of deploying an AI within such a virtual world, the possible implications for the Turing Test, and identifies research directions for the future.

  3. Shanghai Highlight: World Expo

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guo Yan

    2009-01-01

    @@ The proposals regarding the Shanghai Expo attracted the World Expo committee great concern. During the two sessions, the Shanghai World Expo organizer promised that they will play more active role in holding the expo. Though the world is suffering the global crisis, the organizer be-lieved that this is a rare opportunity and as the World Expo 2010 to be held in Shanghai could help China overcome economic dif-ficulties and lift the world out of the crisis shadow.

  4. Warmer amps for the LHC

    CERN Multimedia

    Anaïs Schaeffer

    2012-01-01

    CERN is working together with an Italian company to develop superconducting cables that can function at temperatures of up to 25 K (-248°C). This will make it possible to move LHC magnet power supplies out of the tunnel, protecting them from exposure to the showers of very high-energy particles produced by the accelerator.   Figure 1: devices of this type, which measure approximately 10 metres in length, are inserted between the accelerating magnets at different points along the LHC. When it comes to consuming electricity, the magnets that steer particles through large accelerators can be characterised with just one word: greedy. For the LHC, the total current can reach 1.5 million amps. At the present time, this current is brought in via copper cables of up to 10 cm in diameter. In the tunnel, these cables connect the current leads - which provide the transition between the ambient-temperature cables and the magnets in their bath of superfluid helium - to the power supply. In the a...

  5. WORLD HEALTH DAY THEMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S C Saxena

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available 1970     - Early Detection of Cancer Saves Life.1971     - A Full Life Despite Diabetes.1972     - Your Heart is Your Health.1973     - Health Begins at Home.1974     - Better Food for a Healthier World.1975     - Small Pox - Point of no Return.1976     - Foresight Prevents Blindness.1977     - Immunise and Protect Your Child.1978     - Down With High Blood Pressure.1979     - A Health Child-A Sure Future.1980     - Smoking or Health - The Choice is Yours.1981     - Health for all for by the Year 2000.1982     - Add Years to Life.1983     - Health for all by 2000 - The Count Down has Begun1984     - Children’s Health: Tomorrows Wealth.1985     - Health Youth : Our best Resource.1986     - Health Living - Everyone a Winner.1987     - Immunisation - A Chance for Every Child.1988     - Health For All - All for Health.1989-Let’s Talk Health.1990    - Our Planet - Ourhealth; Think Globally, Act Locally.1991    - Should Disaster Strike - Be Prepared.1992    - Health Beat - The Rhythm of Life.1993    - Handle Life with Care - Prevent Violence and Negligence.1994    - Our Health for a Healthy Life.1995    - Target - 2000 - A World Without Polio.1996    - Healthy Cities for Better Life.1997    - Emerging Infectious Diseases.1998    - Safe Motherhood.1999    - Active Ageing Makes the Difference.2000     - Be a Life Saver, Be a Blood Doner; Blood Saves Life.2001     - Stop Exclusion, Dare to Care.2002     - Move for Health.- Shape the Future of Life, Healthy Environments for Children

  6. Teaching World Religions without Teaching "World Religions"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locklin, Reid B.; Tiemeier, Tracy; Vento, Johann M.

    2012-01-01

    Tomoko Masuzawa and a number of other contemporary scholars have recently problematized the categories of "religion" and "world religions" and, in some cases, called for its abandonment altogether as a discipline of scholarly study. In this collaborative essay, we respond to this critique by highlighting three attempts to teach world religions…

  7. Energy Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davies, Sarah Rachael; Selin, Cynthia

    2012-01-01

    foresight and public and stakeholder engagement are used to reflect on?and direct?the impacts of new technology. In this essay we draw on our experience of anticipatory governance, in the shape of the ?NanoFutures? project on energy futures, to present a reflexive analysis of engagement and deliberation. We...... draw out five tensions of the practice of deliberation on energy technologies. Through tracing the lineages of these dilemmas, we discuss some of the implications of these tensions for the practice of civic engagement and deliberation in a set of questions for this community of practitioner-scholars....

  8. Energy Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davies, Sarah Rachael; Selin, Cynthia

    2012-01-01

    foresight and public and stakeholder engagement are used to reflect on?and direct?the impacts of new technology. In this essay we draw on our experience of anticipatory governance, in the shape of the ?NanoFutures? project on energy futures, to present a reflexive analysis of engagement and deliberation. We...... draw out five tensions of the practice of deliberation on energy technologies. Through tracing the lineages of these dilemmas, we discuss some of the implications of these tensions for the practice of civic engagement and deliberation in a set of questions for this community of practitioner-scholars....

  9. Future Contingents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter; Hasle., Per F. V.

    2011-01-01

    will be a sea-battle tomorrow” could serve as standard examples. What could be called the problem of future contingents concerns how to ascribe truth-values to such statements. If there are several possible decisions out of which one is going to be made freely tomorrow, can there be a truth now about which one...... about the future. Finally, it should be mentioned that temporal logic has found a remarkable application in computer science and applied mathematics. In the late 1970s the first computer scientists realised the relevance of temporal logic for the purposes of computer science (see Hasle and Øhrstrøm 2004)....

  10. Integrated impacts of future electricity mix scenarios on select southeastern US water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, D.; Meldrum, J.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Davis, Michelle

    2013-09-01

    Recent studies on the relationship between thermoelectric cooling and water resources have been made at coarse geographic resolution and do not adequately evaluate the localized water impacts on specific rivers and water bodies. We present the application of an integrated electricity generation-water resources planning model of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee/Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) rivers based on the regional energy deployment system (ReEDS) and the water evaluation and planning (WEAP) system. A future scenario that includes a growing population and warmer, drier regional climate shows that benefits from a low-carbon, electricity fuel-mix could help maintain river temperatures below once-through coal-plants. These impacts are shown to be localized, as the cumulative impacts of different electric fuel-mix scenarios are muted in this relatively water-rich region, even in a warmer and drier future climate.

  11. The future of energy

    CERN Document Server

    Towler, Brian F

    2014-01-01

    Using the principle that extracting energy from the environment always involves some type of impact on the environment, The Future of Energy discusses the sources, technologies, and tradeoffs involved in meeting the world's energy needs. A historical, scientific, and technical background set the stage for discussions on a wide range of energy sources, including conventional fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal, as well as emerging renewable sources like solar, wind, geothermal, and biofuels. Readers will learn that there are no truly ""green"" energy sources-all energy usage involves some trad

  12. Strategic library futures

    CERN Document Server

    Baker, David

    2014-01-01

    This ebook focuses on the future of libraries and the strategies which they should best adopt in order to respond effectively to significantly changed circumstances and requirements. This ebook, then, looks at the significant challenges facing librarians as they adopt new technologies and adapt to a world that can never be the same again. But all the authors in this ebook are able to paint a positive picture of developments, with a wide range of descriptions of how librarianship is transforming itself to help shape and lead information and resource provision and discovery in ways unimaginable

  13. Futur "simple" et futur "proche" ("Simple" Future and "Immediate" Future).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franckel, Jean-Jacques

    1984-01-01

    An analysis of the use of simple and immediate future tenses in French shows that the expression of time is controlled more by context and modals than by specifically temporal cues. The role of negation in this situation is discussed. (MSE)

  14. Creative Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feasey, Rosemary

    2003-01-01

    In 1999 the National Committee for Creativity and Culture in Education (NACCCE) produced a report called "All our futures." In many respects it was and still is a seminal report; it raises issues about creativity in education and offers serious messages for Government, schools and the inspection process. The author's research into teacher…

  15. Witnessing the Future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elgaard Jensen, Torben

    2007-01-01

    the journalists into witnesses. It compares the manager's strategy to other cases of effective witnessing in courtrooms and in science. It concludes that the manager's persuasiveness is derived from his ability to articulate a series of pointed contrasts between the attractive working life within the firm......Abstract: The paper explores the phenomenon of witnessing the future through a case study of how a Scandinavian new economy firm managed to persuade a number of business journalists that it was "the future". It describes the procedures and rhetorical strategies that the manager deployed to turn...... and the problematic work life elsewhere. Finally, it notes that the manager's strategy enacts a timeworld characterised by dramatic epochal changes, which is radically different from the more stable and knowable time-world that is enacted in ordinary scientific discourses. Key words: actor-network theory, witnessing...

  16. World Energy Outlook 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    Industry and government decision-makers and others with a stake in the energy sector all benefit from the contents of World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2012. It presents authoritative projections of energy trends through to 2035 and insights into what they mean for energy security, environmental sustainability and economic development. Oil, coal, natural gas, renewables and nuclear power are all covered, together with an update on climate change issues. Global energy demand, production, trade, investment and carbon dioxide emissions are broken down by region or country, by fuel and by sector. Special strategic analyses cover: What unlocking the purely economic potential for energy efficiency could do, country by country and sector by sector, for energy markets, the economy and the environment; The Iraqi energy sector, examining both its importance in satisfying the country’s own needs and its crucial role in meeting global oil and gas demand; The water-energy nexus, as water resources become increasingly stressed and access more contentious; Measures of progress towards providing universal access to modern energy services. There are many uncertainties, but many decisions cannot wait. The insights of this publication are invaluable to those who must shape our energy future.

  17. Women's Movements and Human Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reardon, Betty

    1975-01-01

    Two strands of futurism share values of equality, development, and peace, and can catalyze each other into potentially transformational forces. The path is re-education: World order thinking provides an appropriate content for adult learning, and women's movements provide the energy of commitment and a worldwide network for communicating policies.…

  18. World Engineer’s Convention 2011: Engineers Power the World

    CERN Multimedia

    Yi Ling Hwong (Knowledge Transfer) and Katarina Anthony

    2011-01-01

    Can the increasing global energy consumption be met without intensifying global warming? Do the necessary technical solutions exist, and is the switch to a low-carbon energy supply feasible and financially viable? These crucial questions and many others were dealt with at the 2011World Engineer’s Convention (WEC). CERN was invited to participate in the event, highlighting its significant contribution to global engineering with an exhibition space devoted to the LHC on the convention floor and a keynote speech delivered by CERN’s Director-General.   From 4 – 9 September 2011, more than 2000 engineers and researchers, as well as politicians and business representatives from about 100 countries gathered at the 2011World Engineer’s Convention (WEC). Held in Geneva, Switzerland, they met to discuss solutions for a sustainable energy future. Discussions looked at the development of engineering solutions through a variety of approaches, with ...

  19. World water dynamics: global modeling of water resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonovic, Slobodan P

    2002-11-01

    The growing scarcity of fresh and clean water is among the most important issues facing civilization in the 21st century. Despite the growing attention to a chronic, pernicious crisis in world's water resources our ability to correctly assess and predict global water availability, use and balance is still quite limited. An attempt is documented here in modeling global world water resources using system dynamics approach. Water resources sector (quantity and quality) is integrated with five sectors that drive industrial growth: population; agriculture; economy; nonrenewable resources; and persistent pollution. WorldWater model is developed on the basis of the last version of World3 model. Simulations of world water dynamics with WorldWater indicate that there is a strong relationship between the world water resources and future industrial growth of the world. It is also shown that the water pollution is the most important future water issue on the global level.

  20. Prospecting the future with AI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julian Gonzalez

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available If we were able to foresee the future, we could be prepared to reduce the impact of bad situations as well as getting the most of profiting periods. Our world is a dynamic system that evolves as time goes by. The number of variables that can influence in future situations outnumbers our capacity of prediction at a first glance. This article will show an alternative way to foresee potential future scenarios based on human experts’ opinion, what can be considered as aknowledge modeling tool.

  1. Strategy implications of world gas market dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    Global trends – past and future – of world natural gas consumption, production, reserves, and prices are highlighted here analyzing the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, the BP Energy Outlook 2011, and the latest natural gas data from the world’s major energy agencies. Growing demand and declining gas-reserve- replacement ratios support market model predictions of rising natural gas prices.

  2. OPEC behavior and world oil prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Griffin, J.M.; Teece, D.J.

    1986-01-01

    This book addresses the economics of exhaustible resources under monopoly and competition. The conventional wisdom - that oil prices, after hesitation in the early 80's will move upward faster than world inflation - is questioned along with the models supporting these predictions. The prospect that world oil prices may collapse in the near future is treated as a definite possibility. The findings are optimistic for consumers and should serve to reorient energy policy.

  3. Creativity and Futurism in Education: Retooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torrance, E. Paul

    1980-01-01

    Combining the strengths of futurism and creative education is necessary to prepare today's students for the world of tomorrow, but retooling in such areas as instructional materials and procedures, tests, assessment, statements of objectives, etc. will be necessary. (DS)

  4. A richer, greener and smaller alpine world: review and projection of warming-induced plant cover change in the Swedish Scandes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kullman, Leif

    2010-03-01

    Alpine plant life is proliferating, biodiversity is on the rise and the mountain world appears more productive and inviting than ever. Upper range margin rise of trees and low-altitude (boreal) plant species, expansion of alpine grasslands and dwarf-shrub heaths are the modal biotic adjustments during the past few decades, after a century of substantial climate warming in the Swedish Scandes. This course of biotic landscape evolution has reached historical dimensions and broken a multi-millennial trend of plant cover retrogression, alpine tundra expansion, floristic and faunal impoverishment, all imposed by progressive and deterministic neoglacial climate cooling. Continued modest warming over the present century will likely be beneficial to alpine biodiversity, geoecological stability, resilience, sustainable reindeer husbandry and aesthetic landscape qualities. These aspects are highlighted by an integrative review of results from long-term monitoring of subalpine/alpine vegetation in the Swedish Scandes. This forms the basis for some tentative projections of landscape transformations in a potentially warmer future. Notably, these results and projections are not necessarily valid in other regions and differ in some respects from model predictions. Continued monitoring is mandatory as a basis for generation of more realistic vegetation and ecosystem models.

  5. Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buccola, Norman; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

    2016-01-01

    A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990–1999) and future (2059–2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam’s spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake’s surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake’s surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered

  6. Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buccola, Norman L.; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

    2016-04-01

    A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990-1999) and future (2059-2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam's spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake's surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake's surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered salmonids. A

  7. Robot Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Anja; Grindsted Nielsen, Sally; Jochum, Elizabeth Ann

    Robots are increasingly used in health care settings, e.g., as homecare assistants and personal companions. One challenge for personal robots in the home is acceptance. We describe an innovative approach to influencing the acceptance of care robots using theatrical performance. Live performance...... is a useful testbed for developing and evaluating what makes robots expressive; it is also a useful platform for designing robot behaviors and dialogue that result in believable characters. Therefore theatre is a valuable testbed for studying human-robot interaction (HRI). We investigate how audiences...... perceive social robots interacting with humans in a future care scenario through a scripted performance. We discuss our methods and initial findings, and outline future work....

  8. My Future

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    正My fellow classmates, Everyone of us is thinking about the future. What is mine? I have decided become a middle school teacher. Does it sound surprising? I had his dream when I was only a child. I love children. I don't think to deal with them all years round is just wasting time. On the contrary, to me it would mean happiness. As we all can see, teachers are badly needed in our country,

  9. Recognized by the World

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    China Danxia gets added to world heritage list as a natural site On August 1,2010,UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee inscribed China Danxia as a natural site in the world heritage list at its 34th session held from July 25 to August 3 this year in Brasilia,capital of Brazil.

  10. VACCINES AND IMMUNIZATION: WORLD SITUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.H. Brundtland

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The last issue of the report «vaccines and immunization: world situation» stresses considerable success in immunization at the global level since the mid 90 s — completely total eradication of poliomyelitis across the world, as well as the drastic reduction of the new measles and tetanus cases among mothers and newborns in some poor countries. The report also briefly describes the progress in the development and implementation of the new life saving vaccines, which may save millions of lives annually. The authors have explained some of the reasons, why the global community should invest in immunization, as well as the perspectives for the use of vaccines and immunization in future.Key words: vaccine, immunization, children.

  11. Warmer and Wetter Soil Stimulates Assimilation More than Respiration in Rainfed Agricultural Ecosystem on the China Loess Plateau: The Role of Partial Plastic Film Mulching Tillage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Daozhi; Hao, Weiping; Mei, Xurong; Gao, Xiang; Liu, Qi; Caylor, Kelly

    2015-01-01

    Effects of agricultural practices on ecosystem carbon storage have acquired widespread concern due to its alleviation of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Recently, combining of furrow-ridge with plastic film mulching in spring maize ecosystem was widely applied to boost crop water productivity in the semiarid regions of China. However, there is still limited information about the potentials for increased ecosystem carbon storage of this tillage method. The objective of this study was to quantify and contrast net carbon dioxide exchange, biomass accumulation and carbon budgets of maize (Zea maize L.) fields under the traditional non-mulching with flat tillage (CK) and partial plastic film mulching with furrow-ridge tillage (MFR) on the China Loess Plateau. Half-hourly net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of both treatments were synchronously measured with two eddy covariance systems during the growing seasons of 2011 through 2013. At same time green leaf area index (GLAI) and biomass were also measured biweekly. Compared with CK, the warmer and wetter (+1.3°C and +4.3%) top soil at MFR accelerated the rates of biomass accumulation, promoted greater green leaf area and thus shortened the growing seasons by an average value of 10.4 days for three years. MFR stimulated assimilation more than respiration during whole growing season, resulting in a higher carbon sequestration in terms of NEE of -79 gC/m2 than CK. However, after considering carbon in harvested grain (or aboveground biomass), there is a slight higher carbon sink (or a stronger carbon source) in MFR due to its greater difference of aboveground biomass than that of grain between both treatments. These results demonstrate that partial plastic film mulched furrow-ridge tillage with aboveground biomass exclusive of grain returned to the soil is an effective way to enhance simultaneously carbon sequestration and grain yield of maize in the semiarid regions.

  12. Warmer and Wetter Soil Stimulates Assimilation More than Respiration in Rainfed Agricultural Ecosystem on the China Loess Plateau: The Role of Partial Plastic Film Mulching Tillage.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daozhi Gong

    Full Text Available Effects of agricultural practices on ecosystem carbon storage have acquired widespread concern due to its alleviation of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Recently, combining of furrow-ridge with plastic film mulching in spring maize ecosystem was widely applied to boost crop water productivity in the semiarid regions of China. However, there is still limited information about the potentials for increased ecosystem carbon storage of this tillage method. The objective of this study was to quantify and contrast net carbon dioxide exchange, biomass accumulation and carbon budgets of maize (Zea maize L. fields under the traditional non-mulching with flat tillage (CK and partial plastic film mulching with furrow-ridge tillage (MFR on the China Loess Plateau. Half-hourly net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE of both treatments were synchronously measured with two eddy covariance systems during the growing seasons of 2011 through 2013. At same time green leaf area index (GLAI and biomass were also measured biweekly. Compared with CK, the warmer and wetter (+1.3°C and +4.3% top soil at MFR accelerated the rates of biomass accumulation, promoted greater green leaf area and thus shortened the growing seasons by an average value of 10.4 days for three years. MFR stimulated assimilation more than respiration during whole growing season, resulting in a higher carbon sequestration in terms of NEE of -79 gC/m2 than CK. However, after considering carbon in harvested grain (or aboveground biomass, there is a slight higher carbon sink (or a stronger carbon source in MFR due to its greater difference of aboveground biomass than that of grain between both treatments. These results demonstrate that partial plastic film mulched furrow-ridge tillage with aboveground biomass exclusive of grain returned to the soil is an effective way to enhance simultaneously carbon sequestration and grain yield of maize in the semiarid regions.

  13. The scientific research potential of virtual worlds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bainbridge, William Sims

    2007-07-27

    Online virtual worlds, electronic environments where people can work and interact in a somewhat realistic manner, have great potential as sites for research in the social, behavioral, and economic sciences, as well as in human-centered computer science. This article uses Second Life and World of Warcraft as two very different examples of current virtual worlds that foreshadow future developments, introducing a number of research methodologies that scientists are now exploring, including formal experimentation, observational ethnography, and quantitative analysis of economic markets or social networks.

  14. Common world model for unmanned systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Robert Michael S.

    2013-05-01

    The Robotic Collaborative Technology Alliance (RCTA) seeks to provide adaptive robot capabilities which move beyond traditional metric algorithms to include cognitive capabilities. Key to this effort is the Common World Model, which moves beyond the state-of-the-art by representing the world using metric, semantic, and symbolic information. It joins these layers of information to define objects in the world. These objects may be reasoned upon jointly using traditional geometric, symbolic cognitive algorithms and new computational nodes formed by the combination of these disciplines. The Common World Model must understand how these objects relate to each other. Our world model includes the concept of Self-Information about the robot. By encoding current capability, component status, task execution state, and histories we track information which enables the robot to reason and adapt its performance using Meta-Cognition and Machine Learning principles. The world model includes models of how aspects of the environment behave, which enable prediction of future world states. To manage complexity, we adopted a phased implementation approach to the world model. We discuss the design of "Phase 1" of this world model, and interfaces by tracing perception data through the system from the source to the meta-cognitive layers provided by ACT-R and SS-RICS. We close with lessons learned from implementation and how the design relates to Open Architecture.

  15. New World View

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bainbridge, William Sims

    This chapter reports the wide range of ideas in a pair of major scientific conference meetings held inside the most popular virtual world, World of Warcraft (WoW), May 9 and May 10, 2008, plus the challenges of organizing these online events. More than a hundred scholars and scientists contributed to each session, the first covering research on World of Warcraft, and the second examining how virtual worlds fit into the larger world of human experience. A third session, held on May 11, was the starting point for the concluding chapter of this volume. This chapter describes how WoW and other virtual worlds can be used as laboratories for studying human behavior, using both qualitative and quantitative methodologies, and the affordances of virtual worlds can be used to support scientific communication (Bainbridge 2007, in press).

  16. Earthworm's immunity in the nanomaterial world: new room, future challenges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hayashi, Yuya; Engelmann, Péter

    2013-01-01

    including those on earthworms. Recently, we reported selective accumulation of silver nanoparticles in the amoebocyte population of Eisenia fetida coelomocytes in vitro. In this review, we give an overview of available literature on the life-history impacts on earthworms, and what we have learnt...

  17. After Globalization Future Security in a Technology Rich World

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilmartin,T J

    2001-08-17

    Over the course of the year 2000, five workshops were conducted by the Center for Global Security Research at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on threats to international security in the 2015 to 2020 timeframe due to the global availability of advanced technology. These workshops focused on threats that are enabled by nuclear, missile, and space technology; military technology; information technology; bio technology; and geo systems technology. The participants included US national leaders and experts from the Department of Energy National Laboratories; the Department of Defense: Army, Navy, Air Force, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; the Department of State, NASA, Congressional technical staff, the intelligence community, universities and university study centers, think tanks, consultants on security issues, and private industry. For each workshop the process of analysis involved identification and prioritization of the participants' perceived most severe threat scenarios (worst nightmares), discussion of the technologies which enabled those threats, and ranking of the technologies' threat potentials. The threats ranged from local/regional to global, from intentional to unintended to natural, from merely economic to massively destructive, and from individual and group to state actions. We were not concerned in this exercise with defining responses to the threats, although our assessment of each threat's severity included consideration of the ease or difficulty with which it might be executed or countered. At the concluding review, we brought the various workshops' participants together, added senior participant/reviewers with broad experience and national responsibility, and discussed the workshop findings to determine what is most certain or uncertain, and what might be needed to resolve our uncertainties. This paper summarizes the consenses and important variations of both the reviewers and the participants.

  18. Creating Online Worlds: The Future of Student Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riegle, Rodney P.

    2007-01-01

    In the 20th century, student work was dominated by paper-print assignments, particularly essays. This was a reflection of the dominant media technology of that century--books, magazines, newspapers, radio, and television. But those days are gone. In the 21st century, the dominant media technology of today's students is the Internet. In addition to…

  19. After globalization future security in a technology rich world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilmartin, T J

    2000-02-12

    Over the course of the year 2000, five one-day workshops were conducted by the Center for Global Security Research at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on threats that might come against the US and its allies in the 2015 to 2020 timeframe due to the global availability of advanced technology. These workshops focused on threats that are enabled by nuclear, missile, and space technology; military technology; information technology; bio technology; and geo systems technology. In December, an Integration Workshop and Senior Review before national leaders and experts were held. The participants and reviewers were invited from the DOE National Laboratories, the DOD Services, OSD, DTRA, and DARPA, the DOS, NASA, Congressional technical staff, the intelligence community, universities and university study centers, think tanks, consultants on national security issues, and private industry. For each workshop the process of analysis involved identification and prioritization of the participants' perceived most severe threat scenarios (worst nightmares), discussion of the technologies which enabled those threats, and ranking of the technologies' threat potentials. We were not concerned in this exercise with defining responses, although our assessment of each threat's severity included consideration of the ease or difficulty with which it might be countered. At the concluding Integration Workshop and Senior Panel Review, we brought the various workshops' participants together, added senior participant/reviewers with broad experience and responsibility, and discussed the workshop findings to determine what is most certain, and uncertain, and what might be needed to resolve our uncertainties. This document reports the consensus and important variations of both the reviewers and the participants. In all, 45 threats over a wide range of lethality and probability of occurrence were identified. Over 60 enabling technologies were also discussed. These are each described in greater detail in the following pages, after overarching considerations are discussed. Here we present the major conclusions of this project, which each include consideration of several threats and their enabling technologies.

  20. World Energy Supplies: The Present Use and Future Prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, John; Osborne, Jonathan

    1978-01-01

    Presents Unit Nine Change and Chance of the Nuffield Advanced Physics, dealing with energy conservation, and a novel statistical approach to diffusion, thermal equilibrium and thermodynamics. Information about energy resources, alternative sources of energy, and energy-cost of materials are also presented. (HM)

  1. The Future of Education into a Digital World

    OpenAIRE

    Viorica Jelev

    2015-01-01

    The article investigate the role of communication in the digital age, between consumers and business and seeks to render highlighting changes within the Romanian society in the last 26 years, with the effects occurred in people's behavior, but also the changes of university education at the discipline I teach, Merchandising and International Marketing, with impact on the delivery of new information to the students of the Faculty of Economic Sciences, within Spiru Haret University. We live in ...

  2. Experts Optimistic About Future of World Ecology, Economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepkowski, Wil

    1984-01-01

    Highlights an international conference which examined issues and actions related to environmental problems. Includes recommendations focusing on: population, poverty, environment; urban environment; fresh waters; biological diversity; tropical forests; land resources; energy; nonfuel minerals; and on air, atmosphere, and climate. (JN)

  3. The Arabic World: the future of its history

    OpenAIRE

    Cherkaoui, Abdelmalek

    1993-01-01

    "El Mundo Arabe, el futuro de su historia", de esta forma el Embajador de Marruecos, realiza una rica visión sobre el conjunto del Pueblo Arabe y una importante prospectiva para los años venideros. Encarando el análisis desde tres ejes: destaca en primer lugar la importancia y la necesidad de los estudios relativos al porvenir poniendo de relieve que el futuro buscado por los Arabes esta en el "Encuentro del Islam y la innovación y no en la desviación del Islam" En segundo término analiza las...

  4. La grille, le World Wide Web du futur

    CERN Multimedia

    2001-01-01

    De nombreux chercheurs trouvent internet trop lent et limité. C'est pourquoi, ils travaillent sur un nouveau réseau : le Grid. Le Grid permettra de mieux partager les ressources informatiques en réseau (1 page).

  5. Fostering Physical Activity Values in the World of the Future

    OpenAIRE

    Earle F. Zeigler

    2014-01-01

    The author argues that we are using human physical activity well in some ways, but that we are also abusing it badly in others! In the case of competitive sport, he believes that we gradually and increasingly abused it over the course of the twentieth century. However, he is not against sport! He is arguing that, employed properly and correctly, sport–as one of a number of vital social forces (e.g., nationalism, ecology)–could contribute to the improvement of the current situation in human he...

  6. Publishing and the academic world passion, purpose and possible futures

    CERN Document Server

    Mertkan, Sefika

    2016-01-01

    Within the Academy, itself a changing and increasingly entrepreneurial entity, publishing is no longer an option; it is the universal currency that secures a position, tenure and promotion; it is key to academic life. Providing a panoramic picture of the changing publishing climate, "Academic Life and the Publishing Landscape "will empower scholars by enabling them to navigate this changing terrain more successfully. This book provides guidance from a range of contributors who use their own wide expertise in writing and publication to document the challenges faced by scholars at different career stages and in different locations. It covers a wide range of debates on publishing, spilt into the following three sections: Mapping the Publication Landscape, Writing for Publication Learning from Successful Voices, Further Challenges and Possibilities. With topics ranging from the process of preparing manuscripts for publication, including chapters on calculating journal rankings and understanding t...

  7. Future Technoscientific Education: Atheism and Ethics in a Globalizing World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Colin D.

    2011-01-01

    This article attempts to assess the claim that the unum necessarium in our time is the general dissemination of scientific knowledge because liberal civilization or the "good society" cannot be had in the presence of traditional religion and "metaphysics." The paper attempts to place this claim in the context of continuing globalization and…

  8. Nutraceuticals and Functional Foods: The Foods for the Future World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gul, Khalid; Singh, A K; Jabeen, Rifat

    2016-12-09

    The health and wellness of human beings is largely dictated by the consumption of nutritious foods. Various studies have linked foods as helpful in combating a number of degenerative diseases; as such, a lot of research on functional attributes linked directly to the health benefits of various plant and animal foods have been witnessed in recent years. Although vast number of naturally occurring health-enhancing substances are of plant origin, there are a number of physiologically active components in animal products as well that deserve attention for their potential role in optimal health. Consumption of biologically active ingredients in fruits and vegetables has been linked to help combat diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular diseases, obesity, and gastrointestinal tract disorders. Lot of research is required to substantiate the potential health benefits of those foods for which the diet-health relationships are not sufficiently validated, and create a strong scientific knowledge base for proper application of naturally present foods in combating various diseases and disorders.

  9. Future Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adli Tıp Uzmanları Derneği ATUD

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available 1\tIV. Adli Bilimler Kongresi 10-\t13 Mayıs 2000, İstanbul İ.LJ. İstanbul Tıp Fakültesi Adli Tıp AD ve Adli Tıp Uzmanlan Demeği (ATIJD İletişim: Dr. Eren Karpuzoğlu, İ.Ü. İstanbul Tıp Fakültesi Adli Tıp AD 34390, Çapa, İstanbul Tel:0-212-6351179 2\t15th International Conference on Alcohol, Drugs and Traffic Safety 13 May 22-26, 2000, Conference secretariat, c/o The Swedish National Road Admin. SE 781-87 Borlange, Sweden e mail: 72000@vv.se 3\tXV:Ulusal Patoloji Sempozyumu 24-27 Mayıs 2000 Türk Patoloji Derneği Sol Belvil Oteli, Belek/ANTALYA Faks: (0212 631 1.3 67 Web adress: www.tpd.org.tr 4\tDNA Forensics May 31-June 2, 2000, Cambridge Healthteclı Institute 1037 Chestnut Street, Newton Upper Falls, MA 02164 Tel: 617-630-1300 Fax: 617-630-1325 E-Mail: chi@healthtech.com 5\tAAFS Annual Meeting. Association for Crime Scene Reconstruction Training Conference 1999- 14-16 June 2000 Netherlands. ENFSI Forensic IT-working group meeting — Forensic IT meeting of ENFSI 6\tVth International Conference On Pediatric Trauma 17-20 Haziran 2000 Vail, Colorado, ABD Dr. Burton Harris Tel: (719 365-5888 e-mail: bharris@memhospcs.org 6\tInternational Assoc, for Identification Annual Conference July 23-29, 2000 Embassy Suites, Charleston, WV Contact: Candy Murray 20601 Netherland St. Orlando, FL 32833 (407 568-7436 conference@theiai.org 7\tDeath and the Maiden - Murder and Rape Investigation. Summer Meeting of the Forensic Science Society. 7-9 July 2000. College of Ripon and York, St John, York, North Yorkshire, U.K. 8\t5th International Conference in Clinical Forensic Medicine of the World Police Medical Officers. 16-20 August 2000. WPMO 2000, 568-999 Canada Place, Vancouver, BC, Canada, V6C 3E1. 9\tThe 13th World Congress on Medical Law 6-10 August, 2000 World Association for Medical Law Helsinki, Finland. contact Stakes/Eva Lindbergh, Siltasaarenkatu 18, P.O. Box 220, FIN-0053, Helsinki, Finland, phone +358 9 3967 2173, FAX +358 9 3967

  10. World Wind: NASA's Virtual Globe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, P.

    2007-12-01

    Virtual globes have set the standard for information exchange. Once you've experienced the visually rich and highly compelling nature of data delivered via virtual globes with their highly engaging context of 3D, it's hard to go back to a flat 2D world. Just as the sawbones of not-too-long-ago have given way to sophisticated surgical operating theater, today's medium for information exchange is just beginning to leap from the staid chalkboards and remote libraries to fingertip navigable 3D worlds. How we harness this technology to serve a world inundated with information will describe the quality of our future. Our instincts for discovery and entertainment urge us on. There's so much we could know if the world's knowledge was presented to us in its natural context. Virtual globes are almost magical in their ability to reveal natural wonders. Anyone flying along a chain of volcanoes, a mid-ocean ridge or deep ocean trench, while simultaneously seeing the different depths to the history of earthquakes in those areas, will be delighted to sense Earth's dynamic nature in a way that would otherwise take several paragraphs of "boring" text. The sophisticated concepts related to global climate change would be far more comprehensible when experienced via a virtual globe. There is a large universe of public and private geospatial data sets that virtual globes can bring to light. The benefit derived from access to this data within virtual globes represents a significant return on investment for government, industry, the general public, and especially in the realm of education. Data access remains a key issue. Just as the highway infrastructure allows unimpeded access from point A to point B, an open standards-based infrastructure for data access allows virtual globes to exchange data in the most efficient manner possible. This data can be either free or proprietary. The Open Geospatial Consortium is providing the leadership necessary for this open standards-based data access

  11. Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N., comp. Bengston

    2012-01-01

    These papers, presented in a special session at the International Symposium on Society and Resource Management in June 2011, explore the transdisciplinary field of futures research and its application to long-range environmental analysis, planning, and policy. Futures research began in the post-World War II era and has emerged as a mature research field. Although the...

  12. Future trends in steam coal utilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broadbent, G.A. [IEA Coal Research, London (United Kingdom)

    2000-07-01

    After reviewing the history of coal production in important regions of the world and the evolution of the international steam coal trade, the paper examines the main drivers behind the future use of steam coal and looks at, from past evidence and current perception, how these may shape the future. The four main drivers are social issues, strategic issues, competitiveness issues, and environmental issues.

  13. Futurism: Gaining a Toehold in Public Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holden, Constance

    1975-01-01

    What has come to be known as applied futurism or futuristics, as a mode of thought, has been emerging from the academic environment into the realm of public policy. Insights noted at the Second General Assembly of the World Future Society are presented. (EB)

  14. Future Summary

    CERN Document Server

    Wilczek, Frank

    2001-01-01

    We are emerging from a period of consolidation in particle physics. Its great, historic achievement was to establish the Theory of Matter. This Theory will serve as our description of ordinary matter under ordinary conditions -- allowing for an extremely liberal definition of "ordinary -- for the foreseeable future. Yet there are many indications, ranging from the numerical to the semi-mystical, that a new fertile period lies before us. We will discover compelling evidence for the unification of fundamental forces and for new quantum dimensions (low-energy supersymmetry). We will identify new forms of matter, which dominate the mass density of the Universe. We will achieve much better fundamental understanding of the behavior of matter in extreme astrophysical and cosmological environments. Lying beyond these expectations, we can identify deep questions that seem to call for ideas outside our present grasp. And there's still plenty of room for surprises.

  15. Future Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilczek, Frank

    We are emerging from a period of consolidation in particle physics. Its great, historic achievement was to establish the Theory of Matter. This Theory will serve as our description of ordinary matter under ordinary conditions - allowing for an extremely liberal definition of ``ordinary'' - for the foreseeable future. Yet there are many indications, ranging from the numerical to the semimystical, that a new fertile period lies before us. We will discover compelling evidence for the unification of fundamental forces and for new quantum dimensions (low-energy supersymmetry). We will identify new forms of matter, which dominate the mass density of the Universe. We will achieve much better fundamental understanding of the behavior of matter in extreme astrophysical and cosmological environments. Lying beyond these expectations, we can identify deep questions that seem to call for ideas outside our present grasp. And there is still plenty of room for surprises.

  16. Future Talks,

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Defeyt

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available La conservation des matériaux modernes et les difficultés qui la caractérisent étaient l’objet du colloque international Future Talks, organisé par Die Neue Sammlung, The International Design Museum, les 22 et 23 octobre 2009 à Munich. Conservateurs-restaurateurs spécialisés, représentants des  institutions muséales les plus prestigieuses d’Europe et d’outre-Atlantique ainsi que chercheurs en sciences appliquées y ont présenté leurs travaux et recherches. En matière de design, d’art moderne e...

  17. Fortress-Make The World More Wonderful?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    @@ In North Song Dynasty, famous thinker Fan Zhongyan wrote a famous phrase at Yueyang Pavilion:one should be the first to worry for the future of the world and the last to claim his share of happiness. This spirit is also practiced by Guangdong Fortress Chemical Company, the major initiators of whom took their first job as teachers.

  18. One-world chemistry and systems thinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matlin, Stephen A.; Mehta, Goverdhan; Hopf, Henning; Krief, Alain

    2016-05-01

    The practice and overarching mission of chemistry need a major overhaul in order to be fit for purpose in the twenty-first century and beyond. The concept of 'one-world' chemistry takes a systems approach that brings together many factors, including ethics and sustainability, that are critical to the future role of chemistry.

  19. Happy 20th Birthday, World Wide Web!

    CERN Multimedia

    2009-01-01

    On 13 March CERN celebrated the 20th anniversary of the World Wide Web. Check out the video interview with Web creator Tim Berners-Lee and find out more about the both the history and future of the Web. To celebrate CERN also launched a brand new website, CERNland, for kids.

  20. Teaching World Religions without Teaching "World Religions"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locklin, Reid B.; Tiemeier, Tracy; Vento, Johann M.

    2012-01-01

    Tomoko Masuzawa and a number of other contemporary scholars have recently problematized the categories of "religion" and "world religions" and, in some cases, called for its abandonment altogether as a discipline of scholarly study. In this collaborative essay, we respond to this critique by highlighting three attempts to teach…

  1. Teaching World Religions without Teaching "World Religions"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locklin, Reid B.; Tiemeier, Tracy; Vento, Johann M.

    2012-01-01

    Tomoko Masuzawa and a number of other contemporary scholars have recently problematized the categories of "religion" and "world religions" and, in some cases, called for its abandonment altogether as a discipline of scholarly study. In this collaborative essay, we respond to this critique by highlighting three attempts to teach…

  2. My World Indoors: My Health My World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tharp, Barbara; Dresden, Judith; Denk, James; Moreno, Nancy

    This curriculum guide for students in grades K-4 is part of the My Health My World series which explores environmental health issues. Focusing on indoor environmental health, it includes (1) an activities guide for teachers which focuses on physical science, life science, and the environment and health, presenting activity based lessons that…

  3. World Health Statistics 2005

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    @@ The World Health Organization (WHO) collects and summarizes a wide range of quantitative data from a variety of health domains through country offices, regional offices and headquarter departments.

  4. Future increases in extreme precipitation exceed observed scaling rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Jiawei; Sherwood, Steven C.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Evans, Jason P.

    2017-01-01

    Models and physical reasoning predict that extreme precipitation will increase in a warmer climate due to increased atmospheric humidity. Observational tests using regression analysis have reported a puzzling variety of apparent scaling rates including strong rates in midlatitude locations but weak or negative rates in the tropics. Here we analyse daily extreme precipitation events in several Australian cities to show that temporary local cooling associated with extreme events and associated synoptic conditions reduces these apparent scaling rates, especially in warmer climatic conditions. A regional climate projection ensemble for Australia, which implicitly includes these effects, accurately and robustly reproduces the observed apparent scaling throughout the continent for daily precipitation extremes. Projections from the same model show future daily extremes increasing at rates faster than those inferred from observed scaling. The strongest extremes (99.9th percentile events) scale significantly faster than near-surface water vapour, between 5.7-15% °C-1 depending on model details. This scaling rate is highly correlated with the change in water vapour, implying a trade-off between a more arid future climate or one with strong increases in extreme precipitation. These conclusions are likely to generalize to other regions.

  5. Shattering world assumptions: A prospective view of the impact of adverse events on world assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuler, Eric R; Boals, Adriel

    2016-05-01

    Shattered Assumptions theory (Janoff-Bulman, 1992) posits that experiencing a traumatic event has the potential to diminish the degree of optimism in the assumptions of the world (assumptive world), which could lead to the development of posttraumatic stress disorder. Prior research assessed the assumptive world with a measure that was recently reported to have poor psychometric properties (Kaler et al., 2008). The current study had 3 aims: (a) to assess the psychometric properties of a recently developed measure of the assumptive world, (b) to retrospectively examine how prior adverse events affected the optimism of the assumptive world, and (c) to measure the impact of an intervening adverse event. An 8-week prospective design with a college sample (N = 882 at Time 1 and N = 511 at Time 2) was used to assess the study objectives. We split adverse events into those that were objectively or subjectively traumatic in nature. The new measure exhibited adequate psychometric properties. The report of a prior objective or subjective trauma at Time 1 was related to a less optimistic assumptive world. Furthermore, participants who experienced an intervening objectively traumatic event evidenced a decrease in optimistic views of the world compared with those who did not experience an intervening adverse event. We found support for Shattered Assumptions theory retrospectively and prospectively using a reliable measure of the assumptive world. We discuss future assessments of the measure of the assumptive world and clinical implications to help rebuild the assumptive world with current therapies. (PsycINFO Database Record

  6. From cold power strategies to hot wars about raw materials? Game of chess of the world power between preventive war and futurable raw material politics in the age of the greenhouse; Von kalten Energiestrategien zu heissen Rohstoffkriegen? Schachspiel der Weltmaechte zwischen Praeventivkrieg und zukunftsfaehiger Rohstoffpolitik im Zeitalter des globalen Treibhauses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roithner, T. (comp.)

    2008-07-01

    The 24th international summer academy, held in Stadtschlaining (Burgenland, Austria) between 8th July and 13th July, 2007, is engaged with the reasons to the conflicts and military conflicts at the end of the fossil energy age. The following lectures are held: (a) From cold power strategies to hot wars about raw materials? (Thomas Roithner); (b) Inauguration of the 24th international summer academy 2007 (Gerald Mader); (c) A change of consciousness also changes unconsciously the being (Hans Lukits); (d) Oil in fire - Conflicts of resources as a fuel for global discord (Wolfgang Sachs); (e) Safety discourses on both sides of the Atlantic - in times o peak oil and climatic change (Elmar Altvater); (f) From energy security to the war of resources: the resource politics of China, Russia and India (Andreas Zumach); (g) Why is there no alternative to the retreat from Afghanistan? (Peter Strutynski); (h) Do ''Peak Oil'' and nuclear energy solve the climate problem? (Helga Kromp-Kolb, Wolfgang kromp); (i) Water - the material from that conflicts consist? (Juerg Staudenmann, Karin Scheurer); (j) US strategy for the regions of Middle East and Caucasus in the unipolar world order (Matin Baraki); (k) What are the influences of oil on the conflict with Iran? (Udo Steinbach); (l) Geopolicy and resources: The grasp of the USA at Africa (Werner Ruf); (m) New colonization of Africa: China, USA and Europe in the struggle for resources (Karin Kneissl); (n) Securing resources and energy politics in Latin America: US politics, EU politics or independent world politics (Peter Stania); (o) More scarcely becoming raw materials - a source for armament and war planning? (Luehr Henken); (p) Battle groups - intervening groups for securing resources (Gunther Hauser); (q) Organization of the globalization as fateful question - which future lies before us? (Franz-Josef Radermacher); (r) No peace without change of renewable resources (Hermann Scheer); (s) Peaceable, forced or

  7. Characterizing the changes in biopolymer composition in roots of photosynthetically divergent grasses exposed to future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suseela, V.; Tharayil, N.; Pendall, E.

    2014-12-01

    A majority of carbon in soil is derived from plant roots, yet roots remain remarkably less explored. Root tissues are abundant in heteropolymers such as suberin, lignin and tannins which are energetically demanding to depolymerize, thus facilitating the accrual of carbon in soil. Most biopolymers are operationally/functionally defined and their function is regulated by the identity of monomers and the linkages connecting these monomers. The structural chemistry of these biopolymers could vary with the environmental conditions experienced during their formative stage thus altering the potential for soil carbon sequestration. We examined the biopolymer composition in the roots of a C3 (Hesperostipa comata) and a C4 (Bouteloua gracilis) grass species exposed to a factorial combination of warming and elevated CO2 at the Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment, Wyoming, USA. The grass roots were subjected to a sequential solvent extraction and base hydrolysis to delineate various operational fractions within the polydisperse matrix. The extracted fractions were analyzed using various chromatography mass spectrometry platforms. Warming and elevated CO2 increased the total suberin content and the amount of ω-hydroxy acids in C4 grass species while in C3 species there was a trend of increasing concentration of α,ω-dioic acids in roots exposed to elevated CO2 compared to ambient CO2 treatment. Our results highlight the effect of warming and elevated CO2 on the chemical composition of heteropolymers in roots that may potentially alter root function and rate of decomposition leading to changes in soil carbon in a future warmer world.

  8. Multi-model ensemble projections of future extreme heat stress on rice across southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Liang; Cleverly, James; Wang, Bin; Jin, Ning; Mi, Chunrong; Liu, De Li; Yu, Qiang

    2017-08-01

    Extreme heat events have become more frequent and intense with climate warming, and these heatwaves are a threat to rice production in southern China. Projected changes in heat stress in rice provide an assessment of the potential impact on crop production and can direct measures for adaptation to climate change. In this study, we calculated heat stress indices using statistical scaling techniques, which can efficiently downscale output from general circulation models (GCMs). Data across the rice belt in southern China were obtained from 28 GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) with two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 for current emissions and RCP8.5 for increasing emissions). Multi-model ensemble projections over the historical period (1960-2010) reproduced the trend of observations in heat stress indices (root-mean-square error RMSE = 6.5 days) better than multi-model arithmetic mean (RMSE 8.9 days) and any individual GCM (RMSE 11.4 days). The frequency of heat stress events was projected to increase by 2061-2100 in both scenarios (up to 185 and 319% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively), especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. This increasing risk of exposure to heat stress above 30 °C during flowering and grain filling is predicted to impact rice production. The results of our study suggest the importance of specific adaption or mitigation strategies, such as selection of heat-tolerant cultivars and adjustment of planting date in a warmer future world.

  9. The future of Arctic benthos: Expansion, invasion, and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renaud, Paul E.; Sejr, Mikael K.; Bluhm, Bodil A.; Sirenko, Boris; Ellingsen, Ingrid H.

    2015-12-01

    One of the logical predictions for a future Arctic characterized by warmer waters and reduced sea-ice is that new taxa will expand or invade Arctic seafloor habitats. Specific predictions regarding where this will occur and which taxa are most likely to become established or excluded are lacking, however. We synthesize recent studies and conduct new analyses in the context of climate forecasts and a paleontological perspective to make concrete predictions as to relevant mechanisms, regions, and functional traits contributing to future biodiversity changes. Historically, a warmer Arctic is more readily invaded or transited by boreal taxa than it is during cold periods. Oceanography of an ice-free Arctic Ocean, combined with life-history traits of invading taxa and availability of suitable habitat, determine expansion success. It is difficult to generalize as to which taxonomic groups or locations are likely to experience expansion, however, since species-specific, and perhaps population-specific autecologies, will determine success or failure. Several examples of expansion into the Arctic have been noted, and along with the results from the relatively few Arctic biological time-series suggest inflow shelves (Barents and Chukchi Seas), as well as West Greenland and the western Kara Sea, are most likely locations for expansion. Apparent temperature thresholds were identified for characteristic Arctic and boreal benthic fauna suggesting strong potential for range constrictions of Arctic, and expansions of boreal, fauna in the near future. Increasing human activities in the region could speed introductions of boreal fauna and reduce the value of a planktonic dispersal stage. Finally, shelf regions are likely to experience a greater impact, and also one with greater potential consequences, than the deep Arctic basin. Future research strategies should focus on monitoring as well as compiling basic physiological and life-history information of Arctic and boreal taxa, and

  10. The World of WarsRisky systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harste, Gorm

      The world of the future will not be one without wars. The many hopes we have about a future peace governed by a more or less confederal state will not make wars obsolete. Regular wars and irregular wars will continue and probably on different subjects than we are used to. The paper proposes...... that the form of war will be more about temporalities, i.e. fast interchanges or, rather, more risky protracted wars of attrition and exhaustion and less on tactical well defined territories. The West can neither dominate such wars nor establish one world that is ruled or even governed. The risk is that we have...... the systems we have. They have their own path dependencies, their temporal bindings and their own stories to tell. In the worst case, they stick to an imaginary of almighty power - and then they lose. We tend to forget that our present past will be experienced and told differently in the future past...

  11. Fermentation. Third World Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Natalie; Hughes, Wyn

    This unit, developed by the Third World Science Project, is designed to add a multicultural element to existing science syllabi (for students aged 11-16) in the United Kingdom. The project seeks to develop an appreciation of the: boundless fascination of the natural world; knowledge, skills, and expertise possessed by men/women everywhere;…

  12. Fermentation. Third World Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Natalie; Hughes, Wyn

    This unit, developed by the Third World Science Project, is designed to add a multicultural element to existing science syllabi (for students aged 11-16) in the United Kingdom. The project seeks to develop an appreciation of the: boundless fascination of the natural world; knowledge, skills, and expertise possessed by men/women everywhere;…

  13. Educating for World Cooperation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Louise M.; Miel, Alice

    This booklet presents a variety of perspectives on educating for world cooperation. Section 1 discusses major world problems and calls for the reorientation of education as a potential solution. Section 2 deals with the design of such a reorientation and offers three approaches to teaching and curriculum development--knowing, being, and doing. In…

  14. On Observing World English.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urdang, Lawrence

    1990-01-01

    Reviews the current state of World English. Subjects addressed include standard accents and dialects, prejudicial attitudes toward nonstandard "local" usages, the use of English as the language of diplomacy, American influences on the language, and the fracturing of English in non-English-speaking countries around the world. (17 references) (JL)

  15. Education and World Order

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Phillip W.

    2007-01-01

    The impact on educational analysis of mainstream international relations (IR) theories is yet to realize its full potential. The problem of education in relation to the construction of world order is considered in relation to core developments in IR theory since the Second World War. In particular, the global architecture of education is seen as a…

  16. World Music Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beegle, Amy C.

    2012-01-01

    Access to world music resources such as videos and sound recordings have increased with the advent of YouTube and the efforts of music educators working closely with ethnomusicologists to provide more detailed visual and audio information about various musical practices. This column discusses some world music resources available for music…

  17. The World Bank’s New Contributor

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    At the end of 2007,China announced for the first time that it would contrib- ute to the International Development Association(IDA),the part of the World Bank Group that provides grants and no-interest credit to the world’s poorest countries.As Robert Zoellick,President of the World Bank,said at the time, China had moved within less than a decade from being a successful IDA recipi- ent to being a global partner. In an exclusive interview with Beifing Review reporter Yu Shujun,David Dollar,the World Bank’s Country Director for China and Mongolia,discusses China’s cooperation with the international bank,the areas of future coopera- tion,the economic development of China and its role in the world economy.

  18. 7th WACBE World Congress on Bioengineering 2015

    CERN Document Server

    Lim, Chwee

    2015-01-01

    This volume publishes the proceedings of the WACBE World Congress on Bioengineering 2015 (WACBE 2015), which was be held in Singapore, from 6 to 8 July 2015. The World Association for Chinese Biomedical Engineers (WACBE) organizes this World Congress biannually. Our past congresses have brought together many biomedical engineers from over the world to share their experiences and views on the future development of biomedical engineering. The 7th WACBE World Congress on Bioengineering 2015 in Singapore continued to offer such a networking platform for all biomedical engineers. Hosted by the Biomedical Engineering Society (Singapore) and the Department of Biomedical Engineering, National University of Singapore, the congress covered all related areas in bioengineering.

  19. The future is 'ambient'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lugmayr, Artur

    2006-02-01

    The research field of ambient media starts to spread rapidly and first applications for consumer homes are on the way. Ambient media is the logical continuation of research around media. Media has been evolving from old media (e.g. print media), to integrated presentation in one form (multimedia - or new media), to generating a synthetic world (virtual reality), to the natural environment is the user-interface (ambient media), and will be evolving towards real/synthetic undistinguishable media (bio-media or bio-multimedia). After the IT bubble was bursting, multimedia was lacking a vision of potential future scenarios and applications. Within this research paper the potentials, applications, and market available solutions of mobile ambient multimedia are studied. The different features of ambient mobile multimedia are manifold and include wearable computers, adaptive software, context awareness, ubiquitous computers, middleware, and wireless networks. The paper especially focuses on algorithms and methods that can be utilized to realize modern mobile ambient systems.

  20. Virtual World Security Inspection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Charles Patterson

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Virtual property theft is a serious problem that exists in virtual worlds. Legitimate users of these worlds invest considerable amounts of time, effort and real-world money into obtaining virtual property, but unfortunately, are becoming victims of theft in high numbers. It is reported that there are over 1 billion registered users of virtual worlds containing virtual property items worth an estimated US$50 billion dollars. The problem of virtual property theft is complex, involving many legal, social and technological issues. The software used to access virtual worlds is of great importance as they form the primary interface to these worlds and as such the primary interface to conduct virtual property theft. The security vulnerabilities of virtual world applications have not, to date, been examined. This study aims to use the process of software inspection to discover security vulnerabilities that may exist within virtual world software – vulnerabilities that enable virtual property theft to occur. Analyzing three well know virtual world applications World of Warcraft, Guild Wars and Entropia Universe, this research utilized security analysis tools and scenario testing with focus on authentication, trading, intruder detection and virtual property recovery. It was discovered that all three examples were susceptible to keylogging, mail and direct trade methods were the most likely method for transferring stolen items, intrusion detection is of critical concern to all VWEs tested, stolen items were unable to be recovered in all cases and lastly occurrences of theft were undetectable in all cases. The results gained in this study present the key problem areas which need to be addressed to improve security and reduce the occurrence of virtual property theft.

  1. Future food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahlqvist, Mark L

    2016-12-01

    Food systems have changed markedly with human settlement and agriculture, industrialisation, trade, migration and now the digital age. Throughout these transitions, there has been a progressive population explosion and net ecosystem loss and degradation. Climate change now gathers pace, exacerbated by ecological dysfunction. Our health status has been challenged by a developing people-environment mismatch. We have regarded ecological conquest and innovative technology as solutions, but have not understood how ecologically dependent and integrated we are. We are ecological creatures interfaced by our sensoriness, microbiomes, shared regulatory (endocrine) mechanisms, immune system, biorhythms and nutritional pathways. Many of us are 'nature-deprived'. We now suffer what might be termed ecological health disorders (EHD). If there were less of us, nature's resilience might cope, but more than 9 billion people by 2050 is probably an intolerable demand on the planet. Future food must increasingly take into account the pressures on ecosystem-dependent food systems, with foods probably less biodiverse, although eating in this way allows optimal health; energy dysequilibrium with less physical activity and foods inappropriately energy dense; and less socially-conducive food habits. 'Personalised Nutrition', with extensive and resource-demanding nutrigenomic, metabolomic and microbiomic data may provide partial health solutions in clinical settings, but not be justified for ethical, risk management or sustainability reasons in public health. The globally prevalent multidimensional malnutritional problems of food insecurity, quality and equity require local, regional and global action to prevent further ecosystem degradation as well as to educate, provide sustainable livelihoods and encourage respectful social discourse and practice about the role of food.

  2. The future of methane

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howell, D.G.

    1995-12-31

    Natural gas, mainly methane, produces lower CO{sub 2}, CO, NO{sub x}, SO{sub 2} and particulate emissions than either oil or coal; thus further substitutions of methane for these fuels could help mitigate air pollution. Methane is, however, a potent greenhouse gas and the domestication of ruminants, cultivation of rice, mining of coal, drilling for oil, and transportation of natural gas have all contributed to a doubling of the amount of atmospheric methane since 1800. Today nearly 300,000 wells yearly produce ca. 21 trillion cubic feet of methane. Known reserves suggest about a 10 year supply at the above rates of recovery; and the potential for undiscovered resources is obscured by uncertainty involving price, new technologies, and environmental restrictions steming from the need to drill an enormous number of wells, many in ecologically sensitive areas. Until all these aspects of methane are better understood, its future role in the world`s energy mix will remain uncertain. The atomic simplicity of methane, composed of one carbon and four hydrogen atoms, may mask the complexity and importance of this, the most basic of organic molecules. Within the Earth, methane is produced through thermochemical alteration of organic materials, and by biochemical reactions mediated by metabolic processes of archaebacteria; some methane may even be primordial, a residue of planetary accretion. Methane also occurs in smaller volumes in landfills, rice paddies, termite complexes, ruminants, and even many humans. As an energy source, its full energy potential is controversial. Methane is touted by some as a viable bridge to future energy systems, fueled by the sun and uranium and carried by electricity and hydrogen.

  3. Progress Report of the World Data Center for Seismology, Beijing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinan Cai

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents in detail the project "Development and Service of World Data Center for Seismology, Beijing," including its background, construction tasks, main results, societal effects, and perspective for future development.

  4. The World Health Organization's Sixty-Eighth World Health Assembly: Updates and Opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Stephanie L

    2015-01-01

    The World Health Assembly (WHA) is the decision-making body of the World Health Organization. Delegates attending the Sixty-Eighth WHA, May 2015, covered a wide range of global challenges and agreed on several key resolutions of importance to nurse leaders. Some of the resolutions adopted relevant for nurse leaders and nursing care such as air pollution, strategies to strengthen epilepsy care, antimicrobial drug resistance, and strategies to strengthen surgical care, are highlighted. Nurse leaders should consider attending the World Health Assembly, as the topics discussed are critical for the future directions of strengthening human resources for health worldwide and, in particular, nursing and midwifery services.

  5. Energy Resources in the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken Tomabechi

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent statistics indicate that in 2005 the world consumed about 0.5 ZJ (ZJ = 1021 Joules of energy. If one assumes that the future world population stabilizes at 10 billions, and the people consume a similar amount of energy per capita to that of the people in the presently developed countries, the world will need about 2 ZJ a year. A recent survey of the available future energy resources indicates that the energies recoverable from coal, oil and gas are only 23 ZJ, 6.7 ZJ and 6.4 ZJ, respectively. Other energy resources such as solar and wind have problems of fluctuation due to the weather conditions. However, the energy expected from known Uranium resources by breeder reactors is 227 ZJ and that from Lithium by fusion reactors is more than 175 ZJ. Therefore, it is important to make efforts to develop and use breeder reactors and fusion reactors to supply a major part of the energy need in the future.

  6. World energy resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clerici, A.; Alimonti, G.

    2015-08-01

    As energy is the main "fuel" for social and economic development and since energy-related activities have significant environmental impacts, it is important for decision-makers to have access to reliable and accurate data in an user-friendly format. The World Energy Council (WEC) has for decades been a pioneer in the field of energy resources and every three years publishes its flagship report Survey of Energy Resources. A commented analysis in the light of latest data summarized in such a report, World Energy Resources (WER) 2013, is presented together with the evolution of the world energy resources over the last twenty years.

  7. World energy resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clerici A.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available As energy is the main “fuel” for social and economic development and since energy-related activities have significant environmental impacts, it is important for decision-makers to have access to reliable and accurate data in an user-friendly format. The World Energy Council (WEC has for decades been a pioneer in the field of energy resources and every three years publishes its flagship report Survey of Energy Resources. A commented analysis in the light of latest data summarized in such a report, World Energy Resources (WER 2013, is presented together with the evolution of the world energy resources over the last twenty years.

  8. World gravity standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uotila, U. A.

    1978-01-01

    In order to use gravity anomalies in geodetic computations and geophysical interpretations, the observed gravity values from which anomalies are derived should be referred to one consistent world wide system. The International Gravity Standardization Net 1971 was adapted by the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics at Moscow in 1971, the network was result of extensive cooperation by many organizations and individuals around the world. The network contains more than 1800 stations around the world. The data used in the adjustment included more than 25,000 gravimetry, pendulum and absolute measurements.

  9. Constructing public worlds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jovchelovitch, Sandra; Priego-Hernandez, Jacqueline; Glaveanu, Vlad Petre

    2013-01-01

    and their social world. Drawings by children from two age groups (seven- and 10-year-olds) and two socio-economic milieus (affluent and deprived), in four cultures (Germany, Mexico, Brazil and Romania), supported by observations and interviews, were used to investigate children’s representations of their public...... world and their position within it. Findings show that public spheres characterised by collectivism, poverty and/or marginalisation: a) accelerate decentration bringing the public world and its complexity to the foreground of children’s depictions, and b) show a strong link between self and the public...

  10. Planning for a Probability: The Almost-Workless World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macarov, David

    1985-01-01

    The author projects some possible future scenarios concerning the world of work and discusses their economic, political, and attitudinal implications. He states that since the consequences of an almost-workless world would be profound, affecting all the values and structures of contemporary society, planning for such an eventuality is urgent. (CT)

  11. The World Heritage Convention, the environment, and compliance

    OpenAIRE

    Goodwin, Edward J.

    2009-01-01

    This Article highlights a particular strength of the World Heritage Convention within the international environmental law project that enhances conservation of natural areas, flora, and fauna. This strength relates to the World Heritage Convention’s ability to pull states towards meaningful compliance with obligations connected to protecting, conserving, presenting, and transferring to future generations the world’s natural (and cultural) heritage.

  12. Future Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adli Tıp Uzmanları Derneği ATUD

    2005-04-01

    Identification and Emerging Technologies Conference March 21-25 2005 Bethesda, MD, USA. To be held at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, Bethesda, MD. Further information: TSgt. Stephen Huntington, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Washington, DC 20306-6000. Phone: (202 782-2637, E-mail: sutton@afip.osd.mil http://www.afip.org/Departments/edu/upcoming.htm 5th Annual International Association of Forensic Mental Health Services April 18-21 2005. Melbourne, Australia. Conference Further information: http : //www. iafmhs. org Homicide Investigation April 22-24 2005, Leeds Marriott Hotel, Leeds, UK. Further information: Information from The Forensic Science Society. E-mail: Tracey@forensic-science-society.org.uk World Police Medical Officers Seventh International Conference on Clinical Forensic Medicine May 9-13 2005 Dunblane, UK. Further information: Northern Networking, 1 Tennant Avenue, College Milton South, East Kilbride, Glasgow G74 5NA, UK. Phone: 44-1355244966. Fax: 44-1355249959; E-mail: wpmo2005@glasconf.demon.co.uk; http:/ / www.apsweb.org.uk The Mid-Atlantic Association of Forensic Scientists 2005 Meeting May 18-20 2005. Pittsburgh, PA, USA. To be held at the Sheraton Station Square Hotel in Pittsburgh, PA. Further information: Sarah L. Kinneer, PA State Police, Greensburg Regional Laboratory. Phone: (724 832-3294, www.maafs.org VI. Adli Bilimler Sempozyumu Son yasal düzenlemeler çerçevesinde hekim sorumluluğu ve yeni TCK’da yaralar 19-22 Mayıs 2005, Elazığ Fırat Üniversitesi Tıp Fakültesi Adli Tıp Anabilim Dalı İletişim: Dr.Abdurrahim Türkoğlu Fırat Tıp Merkezi, Adli Tıp Anabilim Dalı 22119 Elazığ Tel: 0424 233 35 55 E-Posta : atugoglu@firat.edu.tr 17th ENFSI Annual Meeting May 25-28 2005 The Hague, The Netherlands. Further information: http://www.enfsi-am2005.nl Israel International Conference on Science Law Ethics 29 May-2 June, 2005 Haifa. Further information: seminars@isas.co.il Second Mediterranean Academy of Forensic Sciences June 22-25 2005

  13. Curing The World

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    The WHO approves China’s vaccine regulation system The World Health Organization (WHO) said China had complied with international standards for the regulation of vaccines after it completed the assessment procedures at the end of 2010.

  14. World Magnetic Model 2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Magnetic Model is the standard model used by the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.K. Ministry of Defence, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)...

  15. Brazil World Cup Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MANSUR, R.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Overcoming the productivity challenge is the main benefit of the 2014 World Cup for Brazilian people. The sustainable development of our cultural tourism industry will catapult the new middle class growing up rate.

  16. The world's biggest experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Gregson, Liz

    2008-01-01

    According to CERN, our understanding of the Universe is about the change. Meet the Imperial alumni and staff who are involved in CERN's Large Hadron Collider, the world's biggest experiment. (3 pages)

  17. World Trade Center

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2006-01-01

    Esilinastus katastroofifilm "World Trade Center" : stsenarist Andrea Berloff : režissöör Oliver Stone : kunstnik Jan Roelfs : osades Nicholas Cage, Michael Pena, Stephen Dorff jpt : Ameerika Ühendriigid 2006. Ka filmi prototüüpidest

  18. World Glacier Inventory

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Glacier Inventory (WGI) contains information for over 130,000 glaciers. Inventory parameters include geographic location, area, length, orientation,...

  19. World Government: Utopia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahram Ayvazyan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to analyze the possibility of having a world government, which world has been facing overarching changes since the end of Cold war, where bipolar world order has evolved into multipolar system through unipolarity. Analysis method in this paper have the sistematics: discussion of human nature and philosophical dimensions vis-à-vis individual, society and government, as well as society of societies; then briefly analyse globalization, the impact of individuals on interdependency of the current international arena and examine the individualism as the ongoing ideology “by individuals and for individuals.”; and then take the conclusion that the world government is not a utopia

  20. World Trade Center

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2006-01-01

    Esilinastus katastroofifilm "World Trade Center" : stsenarist Andrea Berloff : režissöör Oliver Stone : kunstnik Jan Roelfs : osades Nicholas Cage, Michael Pena, Stephen Dorff jpt : Ameerika Ühendriigid 2006. Ka filmi prototüüpidest

  1. Monitoring the world's agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sachs, J.; Remans, R.; Smukler, S.; Winowiecki, L.; Andelman, S.J.; Cassman, K.G.; Castle, D.; DeFries, R.; Denning, G.; Fanzo, J.; Jackson, L.E.; Leemans, R.; Lehman, J.; Milder, J.S.; Naeem, S.; Nziguheba, G.; Palm, C.A.; Pingali, P.L.; Reganold, J.P.; Richter, D.D.; Scherr, S.J.; Sircely, J.; Sullivan, C.; Tomich, T.P.; Sanchez, P.A.

    2010-01-01

    To feed the world without further damaging the planet, Jeffrey Sachs and 24 food-system experts call for a global data collection and dissemination network to track the myriad impacts of different farming practices.

  2. Monitoring the world's agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachs, Jeffrey; Remans, Roseline; Smukler, Sean; Winowiecki, Leigh; Andelman, Sandy J; Cassman, Kenneth G; Castle, David; DeFries, Ruth; Denning, Glenn; Fanzo, Jessica; Jackson, Louise E; Leemans, Rik; Lehmann, Johannes; Milder, Jeffrey C; Naeem, Shahid; Nziguheba, Generose; Palm, Cheryl A; Pingali, Prabhu L; Reganold, John P; Richter, Daniel D; Scherr, Sara J; Sircely, Jason; Sullivan, Clare; Tomich, Thomas P; Sanchez, Pedro A

    2010-07-29

    To feed the world without further damaging the planet, Jeffrey Sachs and 24 foodsystem experts call for a global data collection and dissemination network to track the myriad impacts of different farming practices.

  3. Brazil World Cup Challenges

    OpenAIRE

    MANSUR, R.

    2012-01-01

    Overcoming the productivity challenge is the main benefit of the 2014 World Cup for Brazilian people. The sustainable development of our cultural tourism industry will catapult the new middle class growing up rate.

  4. IS THE WORLD FLAT?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian Încalţărău

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Globalization became more and more prominent during the last decades. There is no way to argue that globalization led to more interconnected economies, facilitating the communication and the collaboration around the world. But where is this going? Doesglobalization mean uniformity or diversity? As the world begins to resemble more, the people are trying to distinguish between them more, which can exacerbate nationalistic feeling. Friedman argues that globalization made the world smaller and flatter, allowing all countries to take chance of the available opportunities equally. But is this really true? Although politic and cultural factors can stand in front of a really flat world, what is the key for Chinese and Indian success and which are theirs perspectives?

  5. World Magnetic Model 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Magnetic Model is the standard model used by the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.K. Ministry of Defence, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)...

  6. Future Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adli Tıp Uzmanları Derneği ATUD

    2006-12-01

    : Cambridge Healthtech Institute 250 First Avenue, Suite 300 Needham, MA 02494 (781 972-5400 or (888 999-6288 - Fax: (781 972-5425 www.healthtech.com SCANNING 2007 “Scanning Microscopy In Forensics Science” 10-12 April 2007 CA,USA Further information S. Frank Platek, Forensic Chemistry Center, US Food and Drug Administration, 6751 Steger Drive, Cincinnati, OH Tel: 513-679-2700 x254 - Email: fplatek@ora.fda.gov Web: www.fams.org The 9th Annual Conference of BAHID 12-14 April 2007, United Kingdom University of Surrey, Guildford Further information: Web:www.bahid.org AFDIL’s International Training Course 16-20 April 2007, USA Extraction of DNA from Aged Skeletal Remains and Forensic Mitochondrial DNA Sequence Further information: The Armed Forces DNA Identification Laboratory, 1413 Research Blvd, Bldg, 101, Rockville, MD 20850 25th Annual CME Symposium in Forensic Psychiatry April 26-29, 2007 Santa Fe, New Mexico - Inn and Spa at Loretto Further information: American College of Forensic Psychiatry PO Box 5870, Balboa Island CA 92662 Tel: (949 673-7773 - www.forensicpsychonline.com Scanning Microscopy in Forensic Science - A 3-Day Symposium at SCANNING 2007 10-12 April To be held at the Portola Plaza Hotel at Monterey Bay in Monterey, CA. Mark K. Sullivan Program Planning Committee SCANNING 2007 PO Box 485 Mahwah, NJ 07430-0485 (201 818-1010 Fax: (201 818-0086 mks@fams.org - www.fams.org -www.scanning2007.org 7th Annual Proteomic and Genomic Sample Preparation Conference - Optimizing Samples for Diagnostics and Drug Discovery 11-13 April To be held at the World Trade Center in Boston, MA. Margit Eder, PhD Conference Director Cambridge Healthtech Institute (781 972-5478 - Fax: (781 972-5425 meder@healthtech.com - www.GOTSummit.com Forensic Medical Investigation Comprehensive Review Course 11-13 April To be held in Atlantic City, NJ. CONTACT: Michael Henderson or Mary Dudley, MD Forensic Medical Investigation Institute 6505 East Central; PMB#176 Wichita, KS 67206-1924 mike

  7. Fitness World - Fremtidig overlevelse

    OpenAIRE

    Rice, Kasper; Klink, Nikolaj; Nielsen, Mie; Carlson, Andre; Boy, Mikkel; Hansen, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Our project is a case study with Fitness World as a baseline. Our project will enhance Fitness Worlds penetration on their current position on the market. Our empiricism includes both qualitative and quantitative methodical approaches by the use of an expert interview and a questionnaire survey. These methods contribute and generate general knowledge about the fitness culture in Denmark and the customers in the fitness industry. We have stated a possible strategic opportunity for Fitness Worl...

  8. Hosting the World

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Hangzhou and surrounding communities open their doors to leisure and tourism The 2006 World Leisure Expo opens its doors in the scenic city of Hangzhou, in east China’s Zhejiang Province, from April 22 to October 22. The Expo, which was co-sponsored by the World Leisure Organization (WLO), National Tourism Administration and the Zhejiang Provincial Government, highlights the many recreational facets of Hangzhou.

  9. World competitiveness and agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. van Zyl

    1997-07-01

    Full Text Available Against the background of a changing environment in which market factors and greater world trade and competitiveness are increasingly becoming the only criteria for success, a framework for the analysis of world competitiveness is initially developed. This is followed by a discussion on the growth of productivity in agriculture, as well as an exposition of the role of agricultural research. Thirdly, price factors and the terms of trade are discussed, followed by a summary of policy implications.

  10. Inside-My-World

    OpenAIRE

    Clemens Fessler; Claudia Tassotti

    2012-01-01

    Inside-My-World ist die erste Offline-Plattform, auf der man Freundinnen und Freunde kennenlernen, sich im Chat oder in Foren unterhalten, spannende Games spielen oder ganz einfach das eigene Profil gestalten und auf die Pinnwand seiner Freundinnen und Freunde schreiben kann.Diese Plattform hat den Vorteil, dass zum Einstieg keine Computer und keine Internetverbindung notwendig sind, da sie in jedem Raum, z.B. in einem Klassenzimmer, entstehen kann. Denn Inside-My-World ist ein Soziales Netzw...

  11. Brane World Cosmological Perturbations

    CERN Document Server

    Casali, A G; Wang, B; Casali, Adenauer G.; Abdalla, Elcio; Wang, Bin

    2004-01-01

    We consider a brane world and its gravitational linear perturbations. We present a general solution of the perturbations in the bulk and find the complete perturbed junction conditions for generic brane dynamics. We also prove that (spin 2) gravitational waves in the great majority of cases can only arise in connection with a non-vanishing anisotropic stress. This has far reaching consequences for inflation in the brane world. Moreover, contrary to the case of the radion, perturbations are stable.

  12. Printing Has a Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Georg Wenke

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Printing will also be done in the future. Printed items meet basic needs and are deeply anchored in people’s habits. Being able to handle and collect printed matter is highly attractive. And paper is now more alive than ever. It is therefore too shortsighted to disclaim the importance of one of the still large economic sectors just because of a few looming-recession instigated market shifts.The exciting aspect of drupa 2004 is: printing will be reinvented, so to speak. Much more printing will be done in the future than at present. On the one hand, people are concentrating on process optimization and automation to ensure this. Measuring and testing, process control and optimization, and linking up "office software" with printing technology will be very central topics at drupa 2004. Electronics and print are not rivals; a symbiosis exists. And printing is high-tech: hardly any other multifaceted sector which has been so successful for centuries is as computerized as the printing industry.A series of "new chapters" in the variety of printing possibilities will be opened at drupa. Talk will be generated by further technical developments, often the connection between paper/cardboard and electronics, the link between the office world and graphics industry, text databases and their link-up to graphic page production tools, and "on the fly" dynamic printing over networks.All of this and more belongs to future potentialities, which are so substantial overall, the outlook is by no means black for the "black art". Like its predecessors, drupa 2004 is also a product trade fair. However, more than ever before in its history, it is also an "information village". The exhibits are useful, because they occasionally make what this means visible.

  13. A Peaceful Role Player In World Affairs

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    China is committed to peaceful development and proud to be a responsible stakeholder participating in the international order and upholding its values. This is according to Wang Guangya, Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations, who was speaking at a symposium entitled China and the Future of the World, held by the University of Chicago just a week after Chinese President Hu Jintao's U.S. visit Wang also explained why China's development is an opportunity rather than a threat to the rest of the world and...

  14. World Small Hydropower Development Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Heng; Esser, Lara (ICSGP (China)); Masera, Diego (UNIDO, Vienna (Austria))

    2013-07-01

    Currently, small hydropower plants with a capacity of 10 MW, exist in 148 countries or territories worldwide. Four other countries have been identified with resource potential. This report aims to identify the development status and resource potential of small hydro in various countries, territories and regions throughout the world. Working with experts at the ground level to compile and share existing information, experiences and challenges, one comprehensive report was created. Decision-makers, stakeholders and potential investors clearly need this comprehensive information to more effectively promote small hydropower as a renewable and rural energy source for sustainable development and to overcome the existing development barriers. The findings of this report show that small hydropower potential globally is approximated at almost 173 GW. The figure is arrived by totaling data from a wide range of sources with potential compromise of data integrity to varying degrees. For example, research data on economically feasible potential were more readily available in developed countries than those in the least developed or developing countries. More than half of the world's known hydropower potential is located in Asia, around one third can be found in Europe and the Americas. It is possible in the future that more small hydropower potential might be identified both on the African and American continents. The installed small hydropower capacity (up to 10 MW) is estimated to be 75 GW in 2011/2012. The report provides detailed data for each country/region, including recommendations on the national, regional and international level.

  15. Sustainable or non-sustainable future?

    OpenAIRE

    Zbyněk Kuna

    2000-01-01

    Author mentions global problems of the world. Sustainable development and natural resources in relations to world population problem and food problem. He gives main responsibility for the future development to the developed countries and to the international institutions. Pieces of knowledge mentioned in the article result from the solution of the institutional research intention MSM 411100013 “Efficient integration of the Czech agrarian sector in the frame of the European structures - a pres...

  16. Estimation of future groundwater recharge using climatic analogues and Hydrus-1D

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leterme, B.; Mallants, D.; Jacques, D.

    2012-01-01

    The impact of climate change on groundwater recharge is simulated using climatic analogue stations, i.e. stations presently under climatic conditions corresponding to a given climate state. The study was conducted in the context of a safety assessment of a future near-surface disposal facility for low and intermediate level short-lived radioactive waste in Belgium; this includes estimating groundwater recharge for the next millennia. Groundwater recharge was simulated using the Richard's based soil water balance model Hydrus-1D and meteorological time series from analogue stations. Water balance calculations showed that transition from a temperate oceanic to a warmer subtropical climate without rainfall seasonality is expected to yield a decrease in groundwater recharge (-12% for the chosen representative analogue station of Gijon, Northern Spain). Based on a time series of 24 yr of daily climate data, the long-term average annual recharge decreased from 314 to 276 mm, although total rainfall was higher (947 mm) in the warmer climate compared to the current temperate climate (899 mm). This is due to a higher soil evaporation (233 mm versus 206 mm) and higher plant transpiration (350 versus 285 mm) under the warmer climate.

  17. The future of urology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrams, Paul; Brausi, Maurizio; Buntrock, Stefan; Ebert, Thomas; Hashim, Hashim; Tiselius, Hans-Göran; Wyndaele, Jean-Jacques

    2012-03-01

    The Future of Urology has been written in times of economic downturn, with the inevitable effects on health sector spending. Nevertheless, this document aims to define a path whereby the EAU can play a pivotal role in ensuring the highest standard of care throughout Europe, and by setting standards, throughout the rest of the world. The future of urology will be dependent on improved education and training leading to high quality urological care, and to developing a service that is patient focused. The patient focus is becoming increasingly important in urology. This means providing full information about disease processes and urological procedures to patients and allowing them to judge the quality of the urological service that they may choose. Education must start in medical school and as 5% of community medical practice is urology then every medical student must receive urological training. This also applies to nurses and the other professions allied to medicine (PAMS). The EAU should provide a urological curriculum for training of medical students, nurses and PAMS, as well as the more conventional curriculum for postgraduate training and continued medical education for urological specialists. An integrated EAU Knowledge and Learning Centre would provide an invaluable resource to patients and to those who deliver urologic care alike. With high quality training must come a vigorous assessment of knowledge and competence. In the future, the competence of all those delivering urological care will need to be assessed. For urologists in training and specialist urologists this will include not only an assessment of knowledge but an assessment of surgical competence. Improving quality will be supported by the continued subspecialisation of urology, ensuring that all urologists have a surgical portfolio which ensures their competency in the procedures they deliver. This will inevitably result in a concentration of urological services and indeed to the development of

  18. Surfing the quantum world

    CERN Document Server

    Levin, Frank S

    2017-01-01

    The ideas and phenomena of the quantum world are strikingly unlike those encountered in our visual world. Surfing the Quantum World shows why and how this is so. It does this via a historical review and a gentle introduction to the fundamental principles of quantum theory, whose core concepts and symbolic representations are used to explain not only "ordinary" microscopic phenomena like the properties of the hydrogen atom and the structure of the Periodic Table of the Elements, but also a variety of mind-bending phenomena. Readers will learn that particles such as electrons and photons can behave like waves, allowing them to be in two places simultaneously, why white dwarf and neutron stars are gigantic quantum objects, how the maximum height of mountains has a quantum basis, and why quantum objects can tunnel through seemingly impenetrable barriers. Included among the various interpretational issues addressed is whether Schrodinger's cat is ever both dead and alive.

  19. World energy insight 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    The World Energy Insight 2011 is the official publication of the World Energy Council. It includes interviews, articles and case studies from a distinguished panel of World Energy Council Officers, CEOs, government ministers, academics and opinion formers from all areas of the energy sector and provides perspectives from around the globe. Government, industry and NGO's offer both policy and technology perspectives. The insights within this publication add to the work that WEC is doing to provide the forum for energy leaders, along with the on-going WEC studies and programmes on Energy Policies, 2050 Energy Scenarios, Energy Resources & Technologies, Energy for Urban Innovation, Rules Of Energy Trade and Global Energy Access.

  20. The "Ghostly" Quantum Worlds

    CERN Document Server

    Dugic, M

    2011-01-01

    The quantum Universe can be decomposed into subsystems in different ways. We consider the global linear-canonical-transformations-based decompositions (structures) of the Universe. These structures bear the same physical time and the common the fundamental physical law--the Schrodinger law. The Universe quantum state is unique in every instant of time yet bearing the different forms for the different structures of the Universe. This simple corollary of the universally valid quantum mechanics points out that the intelligent agents in a structure may (globally) affect the other structures--the other "worlds". Locally considered non-spontaneous, such effects may seem "ghostly" within the alternative worlds. This picture of the one and the unique quantum Universe is competitive with both the Everett MWI as well as with the Bohmian pilot-wave interpretation, not yet being inconsistent with the "state collapse" interpretation of quantum mechanics. The "ghostly worlds" interpretation here we introduce may prove irre...

  1. Designing Virtual Worlds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gürsimsek, Remzi Ates

    2014-01-01

    The online social platforms known as virtual worlds present their users various affordances for avatar based co-presence, social interaction and provide tools for collaborative content creation, including objects, textures and animations. The users of these worlds navigate their avatars as personal...... mediators in 3D virtual space to collaborate and co-design the digital content. These co-designers are also the residents of these worlds, as they socialize by building inworld friendships. This article presents a social semiotic analysis of the three-dimensional virtual places and artifacts in the virtual...... the audio-visual characteristics of designing in multi-user virtual environments generate experiential, interpersonal and textual meaning potentials....

  2. The world's biggest gamble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockström, Johan; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Hoskins, Brian; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Schlosser, Peter; Brasseur, Guy Pierre; Gaffney, Owen; Nobre, Carlos; Meinshausen, Malte; Rogelj, Joeri; Lucht, Wolfgang

    2016-10-01

    The scale of the decarbonisation challenge to meet the Paris Agreement is underplayed in the public arena. It will require precipitous emissions reductions within 40 years and a new carbon sink on the scale of the ocean sink. Even then, the world is extremely likely to overshoot. A catastrophic failure of policy, for example, waiting another decade for transformative policy and full commitments to fossil-free economies, will have irreversible and deleterious repercussions for humanity's remaining time on Earth. Only a global zero carbon roadmap will put the world on a course to phase-out greenhouse gas emissions and create the essential carbon sinks for Earth-system stability, without which, world prosperity is not possible.

  3. The Emerging World Order

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PETER COLLECOTT

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available It is common ground amongst almost all commentators that the world has changed radically over the past 25 years – the 25 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall heralded the ending of the Cold War, the reunification of a tragically divided Europe, and the acceleration of the process of globalisation which has its only comparable period in the decades leading up to the First World War in 1914. When analyzing the Emerging World Order it is important to cover more than Brazil economy or any other individual BRICs or other Emerging Powers. Instead, our analysis will provide a global view about the economic and political global power structures which are evolving and forming before our eyes, and then to talk about the challenges these emerging realities pose for us in Europe, and in the West in general.

  4. Green nanotechnology of trends in future energy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Kelvii Wei

    2011-06-01

    It is well known that current fossil fuel usage is unsustainable and associated with greenhouse gas production. The amount of the world's primary energy supply provided by renewable energy technologies is required urgently. Therefore, the relevant technologies such as hydrogen fuel, solar cell, biotechnology based on nanotechnology and the relevant patents for exploiting the future energy for the friendly environment are reviewed. At the same time, it is pointed out that the significantly feasible world's eco-energy for the foreseeable future should not only be realized, but also methods for using the current energy and their by-products more efficiently should be found correspondingly to ensure the minimal environmental impact.

  5. Third Pole Glaciers and Ice Core Records of Past, Present and Future Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, L. G.; Yao, T.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.; Davis, M. E.

    2011-12-01

    Ice core histories collected over the last two decades from across the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalaya demonstrate the climatic complexity and diversity of the Third Pole (TP) region. Proxy climate records spanning more than 500,000 years have been recovered from the Guliya ice cap in the far northwestern Kunlun Shan, which is dominated by westerly air flow over the Eurasian land mass. Shorter records (central TP, and also in the Himalaya to the south where a monsoonal climate regime dominates and the annual accumulation is high. The Himalayan ice fields are sensitive to fluctuations in the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon and are affected by the rising temperatures in the region. We examine the recent climatic changes to earlier distinctive epochs such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~950-1250 AD), the early Holocene "Hypsithermal" (~5 to 9 kyr BP) and the Eemian (~114 -130 kyr BP). The Eemian, the most recent period when Earth was significantly warmer than today, can serve in part as an analog for the coming greenhouse world. One thousand-year records of δ18O variations from four of these ice fields illustrate the effect of the recent warming across the TP. Mean values for much of the 20th Century (AD 1938 to 1987) are compared with those for the prior nine centuries (1000 to 1937 AD). The greatest recent enrichment occurs on the highest elevation site (Dasuopu in the Himalaya), presumably where the greatest warming is occurring. These trends are consistent with instrumental temperature records collected since the 1950s across the TP as well as with IPCC (2007) model predictions of a nearly two-fold vertical amplification of temperatures in the Tropics. A fifth ice field, Naimona'nyi (6100 masl), is not included in the study as recent melting from the top of the glacier has obliterated the upper 40 to 50 years of the record. Evidence confirming this will be presented along with recent mass balance measurements indicating that no net accumulation occurs on

  6. The new world disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checa, Nicolas; Maguire, John; Barney, Jonathan

    2003-08-01

    On January 1, 1995, representatives from 76 countries signed the World Trade Organization charter, which for years had been part of a temporary trade agreement. The WTO's emergence as a fully empowered supranational body seemed to reflect the triumph of what the first President Bush had described as the "new world order." That order was based on two assumptions: that a healthy economy and a sound financial system make for political stability, and that countries in business together do not fight each other. The number one priority of U.S. foreign policy was thus to encourage the former Communist countries of Europe and the developing nations in Latin America, Asia, and Africa to adopt business-friendly policies. Private capital would flow from the developed world into these countries, creating economic growth. It sounded too good to be true, and so it proved. The new world order of Bush père and his successor, Bill Clinton, has been replaced by the new world disorder of Bush fils. Under the second Bush's administration, the economic and political rationale-behind the Washington consensus of the 1990s has unraveled, forcing a radical change in our perceptions of which countries are safe for business. Negotiating this new environment will require companies to more rigorously evaluate political events and more carefully assess the links between political, economic, and financial risk factors. They'll need to be more selective about which markets to enter, and they'll need to think differently about how to position themselves in those markets. The geopolitical events of the past year, the Bush administration's global war on terror, as well as ongoing convulsions in traditional political and economic relationships must be understood and managed by corporate leaders worldwide. With careful analysis, business leaders can increase their companies' visibility and better respond to the uncertainties of the new world disorder.

  7. World food trends and prospects to 2025

    OpenAIRE

    Dyson, Tim

    1999-01-01

    This paper reviews food (especially cereal) production trends and prospects for the world and its main regions. Despite fears to the contrary, in recent years we have seen continued progress toward better methods of feeding humanity. Sub-Saharan Africa is the sole major exception. Looking to the future, this paper argues that the continuation of recent cereal yield trends should be sufficient to cope with most of the demographically driven expansion of cereal demand th...

  8. 10th World Earthquake Engineering Conference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranguelov, Boyko; Housner, George

    The 10th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (10WCEE) took place from July 19 to 24 in Madrid, Spain. More than 1500 participants from 51 countries attended the conference. All aspects of earthquake engineering were covered and a worldwide update of modern research and practice, as well as future directions in the field, was provided through reports, papers, posters, two keynote lectures, ten state-ofthe-art reports, and eleven special theme sessions.

  9. The world of Edgerank

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlsen, Hjalmar Alexander Bang; Birkbak, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    marketing blogs about how to handle the algorithm in practice. Based on these events, we construct an ‘internalistic’ account of the rhetoric of Edgerank, opening for an exploration of its moral grammar and the world or dwelling place it assumes and enacts. We find that the world of Edgerank is ordered...... do so by examining three specific situations where the operations of Edgerank have been critiqued and defended: First, Facebook’s own response to the critique that social media produce echo chambers. Second, Facebook’s presentation of the main variables in the Edgerank algorithm. Third, social media...

  10. World championship in negotiation?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smolinski, Remigiusz; Kesting, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The last decade has seen the emergence of several new negotiation competitions around the world.We think the two major drivers of this development are a general trend toward the increasing internationalization of higher education and a recognition of the specific benefits of competitions for nego......The last decade has seen the emergence of several new negotiation competitions around the world.We think the two major drivers of this development are a general trend toward the increasing internationalization of higher education and a recognition of the specific benefits of competitions...

  11. Inside-My-World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clemens Fessler

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Inside-My-World ist die erste Offline-Plattform, auf der man Freundinnen und Freunde kennenlernen, sich im Chat oder in Foren unterhalten, spannende Games spielen oder ganz einfach das eigene Profil gestalten und auf die Pinnwand seiner Freundinnen und Freunde schreiben kann.Diese Plattform hat den Vorteil, dass zum Einstieg keine Computer und keine Internetverbindung notwendig sind, da sie in jedem Raum, z.B. in einem Klassenzimmer, entstehen kann. Denn Inside-My-World ist ein Soziales Netzwerk in Form eines Rollenspiels für Gruppen, z.B. SchülerInnen, LehrerInnen oder Eltern.

  12. [Towards an urban world].

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-12-01

    It has been estimated that by the year 2006, the proportion of the world's population residing in cities will for the 1st time exceed 50%. The entire urban population will be living on 1% of the earth's surface. Rapid growth of cities is largely limited to developing countries, where about 9/10 of urban growth is expected to occur in coming decades. Urban growth in developing countries is due to high fertility as well as inmigration of poor peasants seeking a better life. The current growth rate of Third World cities is 3.6% annually, which signifies doubling of the population in 20 years. Paris required over a century to grow from 547,000 to 3 million, but Lagos grew from 700,000 to 5.6 million in 20 years and Cairo grew by 6.5 million in 34 years. Immoderate population growth places a great strain on cities attempting to provide basic services. Only a few authoritarian governments have succeeded in limiting immigration to their metropolitan areas. Rapidly growing cities have become symbols not only of poverty and social deterioration, but of ecological destruction, contamination, and lack of health. Air pollution, waste management, and the water supply are 3 of the most serious problems of hygiene and sanitation in the world's cities. Air pollution is caused by various factors including car exhausts and coal burning. According to World Health Organization data, less than 60% of Third World housing has access to an adequate sanitary system. 90% of sewage is not treated before elimination. And millions of persons with no potable water supply are obliged to consume contaminated water or to use their scarce resources to buy water. Many cities lose up to 60% of their scarce water supplies through leaking pipes. If these pipes were repaired, and the loss amounted to the 12% typical of the US and Great Britain, this single measure would double the volume of potable water available. The lack of social balance is at the root of urban problems in the Third World. 600

  13. The World of Rice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    VALERIE SARTOR

    2010-01-01

    @@ Pilafs, risottos, soups, snacks, paellas,stuffing, vinegars, wines and desserts-rice is used all over the world in myriad ways as food and drink.Although rice is one of the world's most ancient foods and it is impossible to know exactly where and when cultivation of this marvelous grain began, China is popularly acknowledged as the homeland of rice. Chinese people have many legends about rice. Some describe a benevolent goddess in silk robes whose gown accidentally picked up stray rice grains, which she dropped from the heavens to humans below. It's also said that Shennong, the Divine Farmer in Chinese myth, sowed the first rice on earth.

  14. Suicide in the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peeter Värnik

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Over the past 20 years the WHO has considerably improved world mortality data. There are still shortcomings but more countries now report data and world-wide estimates are regularly made. Methods: Data about mortality have been retrieved from the WHO world database. Worldwide injury mortality estimates for 2008 as well as trends of the suicide rate from 1950 to 2009 were analysed. Results: Suicides in the world amount to 782 thousand in 2008 according to the WHO estimate, which is 1.4% of total mortality and 15% of injury mortality. The suicide rate for the world as a whole is estimated at 11.6 per 100,000 inhabitants. The male–female rate ratio of suicide is estimated to be highest in the European Region (4.0 and the lowest in the Eastern Mediterranean region (1.1. Among males the highest suicide rate in the 15–29 age group is in the SE Asian region, in the 45–59 age group in European males and for ages above 60 in the Western Pacific region. Females from SE Asia have a remarkably high suicide rate among 15–29-year-olds and from age 45 in the Western Pacific region. The leading country is currently Lithuania, with a suicide rate of 34.1 per 100,000 inhabitants. Also among males the suicide rate is the highest in Lithuania at 61.2. Among females South Korea with 22.1 is at the top of world suicide rates. Conclusions: During the past six decades, according to the WHO Japan, Hungary, and Lithuania have topped the list of world countries by suicide rate, but if the current trends continue South Korea will overtake all others in a few years. The heart of the problem of suicide mortality has shifted from Western Europe to Eastern Europe and now seems to be shifting to Asia. China and India are the biggest contributors to the absolute number of suicides in the world.

  15. Persistence and change in community composition of reef corals through present, past, and future climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmunds, Peter J; Adjeroud, Mehdi; Baskett, Marissa L; Baums, Iliana B; Budd, Ann F; Carpenter, Robert C; Fabina, Nicholas S; Fan, Tung-Yung; Franklin, Erik C; Gross, Kevin; Han, Xueying; Jacobson, Lianne; Klaus, James S; McClanahan, Tim R; O'Leary, Jennifer K; van Oppen, Madeleine J H; Pochon, Xavier; Putnam, Hollie M; Smith, Tyler B; Stat, Michael; Sweatman, Hugh; van Woesik, Robert; Gates, Ruth D

    2014-01-01

    The reduction in coral cover on many contemporary tropical reefs suggests a different set of coral community assemblages will dominate future reefs. To evaluate the capacity of reef corals to persist over various time scales, we examined coral community dynamics in contemporary, fossil, and simulated future coral reef ecosystems. Based on studies between 1987 and 2012 at two locations in the Caribbean, and between 1981 and 2013 at five locations in the Indo-Pacific, we show that many coral genera declined in abundance, some showed no change in abundance, and a few coral genera increased in abundance. Whether the abundance of a genus declined, increased, or was conserved, was independent of coral family. An analysis of fossil-reef communities in the Caribbean revealed changes in numerical dominance and relative abundances of coral genera, and demonstrated that neither dominance nor taxon was associated with persistence. As coral family was a poor predictor of performance on contemporary reefs, a trait-based, dynamic, multi-patch model was developed to explore the phenotypic basis of ecological performance in a warmer future. Sensitivity analyses revealed that upon exposure to thermal stress, thermal tolerance, growth rate, and longevity were the most important predictors of coral persistence. Together, our results underscore the high variation in the rates and direction of change in coral abundances on contemporary and fossil reefs. Given this variation, it remains possible that coral reefs will be populated by a subset of the present coral fauna in a future that is warmer than the recent past.

  16. Real-World Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borja, Rhea R.

    2006-01-01

    This article presents IISME, a U.S. program that can give educators a real-world experience and that can deepen their subject-matter knowledge. It also presents the experiences of some teachers who are into this program. IISME's summer-fellowship program started out with 40 teachers and 12 companies. The group's growth picked up in 2001, when it…

  17. To Impress The World

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG ZHIPING

    2010-01-01

    @@ An Exhibition of Fine Works of Seal Engraving Art was held in the Cultural Center of the World Expo in Shanghai in mid-August. The exhibition was organized by the Chinese Academy of Seal Engraving of the Chinese Academy of Arts.

  18. Entertaining the whole world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cheok, Adrian David; Nijholt, Anton; Romão, Teresa

    2014-01-01

    Entertainment media are entertainment products and services that rely on digital technology. Mostly the digital entertainment industry is focused on the developed world such as USA, Europe, and Japan. However, due to the decreasing cost of computer and programming technologies, developing countries

  19. French in Culinary World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rila Hilma

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available More than million foods have been made by people from all over the world in the latest years. People now try to create new cooks and make some creativity on it. Then, cooking which the field is culinary has become an art because it needs an artistic value to decorate the food, a good taste and proper technique in processing delicious food in order to make it a masterpiece. French culinary is as famous as the Eiffel tower in the heart of the country, Paris. Most of fine dining international restaurants apply the French menu and cooking. This article presents an overview about the French element in culinary world; starts from its history, kitchen organization, French menu spelling, and French cooking vocabulary. The discussion proceeds library research to compile the data. Later, the art of culinary is interesting to be learned because it contains the classical history of world civilization, in this case French civilization. The issue of cooking trend nouvelle cuisine was a masterpiece of one of the greatest chef in his time, Escoffier. French culinary is widely well-known in all over the world because of innovation, creativity, and proud. Those are spirits that we must learn.

  20. Brane world scenarios

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Dileep P Jatkar

    2003-02-01

    We review proposals of brane world models which attempt to combine gauge theories with gravity at TeV scale by confining the gauge theory to a three-brane embedded in higher dimensional bulk. Gravity, however, propagates in the directions transverse to the brane as well.

  1. Withdrawn Amidst the World

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Mette Birkedal; Nørgaard, Lars Cyril; Nagelsmit, Eelco

    2017-01-01

    The pious Élisabeth d'Orléans, Mme de Guise, had a vivid correspondence with Armand-Jean de Rancé, abbot of the Cistercian abbey of La Trappe in Normandy. Rancé was considered a champion of unconditional isolation from the world by his contemporaries, but in fact he recommended quite diverse forms...... in remarkable detail how the Duchess should balance her obligations to God and human beings by being a model of withdrawal. To this end she must constantly, in action and demeanour, display to the world her withdrawal from the world. Rancé's spiritual advice to Mme de Guise throws new light on the devotional...... horizon of Gaston d'Orléans's daughter and the pastoral practice of the abbot of La Trappe. Above all, it shows the intricacies and modulations of the withdrawal from the world prescribed to late seventeenth-century aristocratic dévots and, especially, dévotes....

  2. Affective World Literature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vilslev, Annette Thorsen

    The PhD dissertation compares the literary theory and novels of modern Japanese writer Natsume Sōseki. It reads Sōseki’s Theory of Literature (2009, Bungakuron, 1907) as an inherently comparative and interdisciplinary approach to theorizing feelings in world literature. More broadly, the disserta......The PhD dissertation compares the literary theory and novels of modern Japanese writer Natsume Sōseki. It reads Sōseki’s Theory of Literature (2009, Bungakuron, 1907) as an inherently comparative and interdisciplinary approach to theorizing feelings in world literature. More broadly......, the dissertation investigates the critical negotiation of the novel as a travelling genre in Japan in the beginning of the 20th century, and, more specifically, Sōseki’s work in relation to world literature and affect theory. Sōseki’s work is highly influential in Japan and East Asia, and his novels widely...... circulated beyond Japan. Using Sōseki’s theory as an example, and by comparing it to other theories, the dissertation argues that comparative literature needs to include not only more non-Western literature but also more non-Western literary theories in the ongoing debate of world literature. Close...

  3. World beyond Pluto

    CERN Document Server

    Marlowe, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    What happens when a hardened criminal on the run for his life gets mixed up with an all-girl symphony traveling between lesser-populated planets in a futile attempt to bring culture to their rowdy inhabitants? Well, to put it mildly, hijinks ensue. Read Stephen Marlowe's thoroughly entertaining World Beyond Pluto to find out the rest.

  4. World Security and Equity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Tinbergen (Jan)

    1990-01-01

    textabstractA very neat illustration of the skilful use of small, manageable, world models to consider pressing policy questions of great current relevance. Ron Smith, The Economic Journal" Jan Tinbergen, in this book as in his earlier work, has the courage to address central issues. Dietrich

  5. Dancing With the World

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Ballet, the dance created for court performances in Renaissance Europe that reached into the world of high art in early 17th century France, has long been loved by Chinese. As early as the 1920s, andinto the 1950s and 1960s when the country was alienated from the

  6. Globalization and world trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Joseph Buongiorno

    2007-01-01

    This chapter discusses economic globalization and world trade in relation to forest sector modeling for the US/North American region. It discusses drivers of economic globalization and related structural changes in US forest product markets, including currency exchange rates and differences in manufacturing costs that have contributed to the displacement of global...

  7. Exploring New Geometric Worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nirode, Wayne

    2015-01-01

    When students work with a non-Euclidean distance formula, geometric objects such as circles and segment bisectors can look very different from their Euclidean counterparts. Students and even teachers can experience the thrill of creative discovery when investigating these differences among geometric worlds. In this article, the author describes a…

  8. French in Culinary World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rila Hilma

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available More than million foods have been made by people from all over the world in the latest years. People now try to create new cooks and make some creativity on it. Then, cooking which the field is culinary has become an art because it needs an artistic value to decorate the food, a good taste and proper technique in processing delicious food in order to make it a masterpiece. French culinary is as famous as the Eiffel tower in the heart of the country, Paris. Most of fine dining international restaurants apply the French menu and cooking. This article presents an overview about the French element in culinary world; starts from its history, kitchen organization, French menu spelling, and French cooking vocabulary. The discussion proceeds library research to compile the data. Later, the art of culinary is interesting to be learned because it contains the classical history of world civilization, in this case French civilization. The issue of cooking trend “nouvelle cuisine” was a masterpiece of one of the greatest chef in his time, Escoffier. French culinary is widely well-known in all over the world because of innovation, creativity, and proud. Those are spirits that we must learn.   

  9. Mapping a Changing World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoltman, Joseph P.

    1992-01-01

    Addresses the importance of maps for instruction in both history and geography. Suggests that maps have gotten recent attention because of the rapid political changes occurring in Europe and the quincentenary of Columbus' voyage. Discusses different map projections and the importance of media and satellite display of real pictures of the world.…

  10. World Collection of Cotton

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KHAKIMJON Saydaliyev; ALISHER Amanturdiev; MALOXAT Halikova

    2008-01-01

    @@ Achievements of selection and other theoretical researches on cotton not only in our country,but also world-wide depend on the presence of genetic resources.Uzbek Scientific Research Institute of Selection and Seed Growing of Cotton is a leading center of science on breeding and production of cotton across Central Asia.

  11. Searching for world domination

    CERN Multimedia

    Quillen, E

    2004-01-01

    "Optimists might believe Microsoft suffered a setback last week that will impede its progress toward world domination, but I suspect the company has already found a way to prevail. At issue before the European Union was Microsoft's bundling of its Windows Media Player with its operating system" (1 page)

  12. World Database of Happiness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Veenhoven (Ruut)

    1995-01-01

    textabstractABSTRACT The World Database of Happiness is an ongoing register of research on subjective appreciation of life. Its purpose is to make the wealth of scattered findings accessible, and to create a basis for further meta-analytic studies. The database involves four sections:
    1.

  13. World Heart Day

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2009-09-01

    For World Heart Day, learn more about what heart-healthy steps you can take in the workplace.  Created: 9/1/2009 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP).   Date Released: 9/9/2009.

  14. World Security and Equity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Tinbergen (Jan)

    1990-01-01

    textabstractA very neat illustration of the skilful use of small, manageable, world models to consider pressing policy questions of great current relevance. Ron Smith, The Economic Journal" Jan Tinbergen, in this book as in his earlier work, has the courage to address central issues. Dietrich Fisher

  15. World Database of Happiness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Veenhoven (Ruut)

    1995-01-01

    textabstractABSTRACT The World Database of Happiness is an ongoing register of research on subjective appreciation of life. Its purpose is to make the wealth of scattered findings accessible, and to create a basis for further meta-analytic studies. The database involves four sections:
    1. Bib

  16. World Database of Happiness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Veenhoven (Ruut)

    1995-01-01

    textabstractABSTRACT The World Database of Happiness is an ongoing register of research on subjective appreciation of life. Its purpose is to make the wealth of scattered findings accessible, and to create a basis for further meta-analytic studies. The database involves four sections:
    1. Bib

  17. Worlds of Meaning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlin, Ruth R.

    1998-01-01

    Summarizes the lives and pursuits of four U.S. artists: Winslow Homer, John Frederick Peto, George Bellows, and Joan Mitchell. Explains the concepts apparent in the four works of art and shows how the artists created these works through expressing their perceptions of the world around them. Lists questions for further exploration. (CMK)

  18. An interdependent world

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    金碚

    2009-01-01

    The financial crisis that first struck the United States is unfolding into a worldwide economic recession.When the U.S.coughs,the world catches a cold,now a once-in-acentury cold.This is unexpected to most people,including most economists.It is often said that everything in the

  19. The World Science Festival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pazmino, J.

    2012-06-01

    (Abstract only) New York City in the late 20th century rose to be a planetary capital for the sciences, not just astronomy. This growth was mainly in the academic sector but a parallel growth occurred in the public and home field. With the millennium crossing, scientists in New York agitated for a celebration of the City as a place for a thriving science culture. In 2008 they began World Science Festival. 2011 is the fourth running, on June 1-5, following the AAVSO/AAS meetings. World Science Festival was founded by Dr. Brian Greene, Columbia University, and is operated through the World Science Foundation. The Festival is "saturation science" all over Manhattan in a series of lectures, shows, exhibits, performances. It is staged in "science" venues like colleges and musea, but also in off-science spaces like theaters and galleries. It is a blend from hard science, with lectures like those by us astronomers, to science-themed works of art, dance, music. Events are fitted for the public, either for free or a modest fee. While almost all events are on Manhattan, effort has been made to geographically disperse them, even to the outer boroughs. The grand finale of World Science Festival is a street fair in Washington Square. Science centers in booths, tents, and pavilions highlight their work. In past years this fair drew 100,000 to 150,000 visitors. The entire Festival attracts about a quarter-million attendees. NYSkies is a proud participant at the Washington Square fair. It interprets the "Earth to the Universe" display, debuting during IYA-2009. Attendance at "Earth..." on just the day of the fair plausibly is half of all visitors in America. The presentation shows the scale and scope of World Science Festival, its relation to the City, and how our astronomers work with it.

  20. The future of scholarly communications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David De Roure

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The academic publishing industry is set to celebrate 350 years of peer-reviewed scientific journals. However, there are significant shifts in the practice of scholarship, as scholars and citizens alike participate in an increasingly digital world. Is the scholarly article still fit for its purpose in this data-driven world, with new interdisciplinary methodologies and increasing automation? How might it be enhanced or replaced with new kinds of digital research objects, so as not to restrict innovation but rather create a flourishing sense-making network of humans and machines? The emerging paradigm of social machines provides a lens onto future developments in scholarship and scholarly collaboration, as we live and study in a hybrid physical-digital sociotechnical system of enormous and growing scale.