WorldWideScience

Sample records for future warmer world

  1. Composition and carbon dynamics of forests in northeastern North America in a future, warmer world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohan, J.E.; Georgia Univ., Athens, GA; Cox, R.M.; Iverson, L.R.

    2009-01-01

    This article provided a synthesis of modelling and scientific DNA which indicated that tree migrations since the last glaciation period were slower than current and predicted climatic warming trends. Air pollution is now offsetting carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) gains in biomass and will predispose many trees to other stresses. Nitrogen and sulfate deposition in the northeastern United States is changing forest nutrient availability, and is reducing the reproductive success and frost hardiness of some species. Acid deposition is also causing physical damage to leaves and changing the behaviour of pests and diseases. It is expected that the interacting stresses will cause declines in tree populations as well as ecosystem disturbances during the transition to warmer climates. Modelling studies have predicted that the warmer climates will increase habitats for most tree species in the northeastern United States. Species with declining habitats in the United States and Canada may migrate northwards. Paleo-ecological studies suggest that local edaphic factors will negatively impact current and future recruitment successes, but may also combine with climatic effect to cause sudden large shifts in vegetation. 83 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

  2. Extreme Temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanigachalam, A.; Achutarao, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    n the summer of 2015 a heat wave claimed more than 2500 lives of southeastern India. Wehner et al., (2016) showed that the risk of this heat wave has increased due to anthropogenic forcings. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, surface temperature over India shows a rate of increase of about 0.2°C/decade during the 21st Century (Basha et al., 2017). The extreme temperatures that have occurred in the recent past and further increases projected for the future have implications for human health and productivity. In light of the Paris accords, future stabilization of global mean temperature at the 1.5°C above pre-industrial aspirational target and the "not to be exceeded" 2°C target (still higher than current temperatures), the possibility of increases in extreme temperatures under these scenarios is very real. In this study we seek to understand the nature of extreme temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C worlds in comparison to the current climate. We make use of model output contributed under the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project (HAPPI; Mitchell et al., 2017). The HAPPI database contains output from many atmospheric GCMs with multiple simulations ( 100 each) of historical (2005-2015), 1.5°C warmer decade, and 2°C warmer decade. The large number of ensembles provides an opportunity to study the extremes in temperature that occur over India and how they may change. In order to provide insights into the future comparable against current operational practices, we make use of definitions of "hot days", "heat waves", and "severe heat waves" used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). We compare modelled data (and bias corrected model output where available) against observed daily temperatures from the IMD gridded (1°x1°) dataset available for 1951-2015 as also circulation features that lead to such events by comparing against reanalysis products. We also investigate the timing of such events in the future scenarios

  3. A 2 °C warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elkin, Ché; Gutiérrez, Alvaro G; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Manusch, Corina; Temperli, Christian; Rasche, Livia; Bugmann, Harald

    2013-06-01

    Limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 °C is the objective of international efforts aimed at avoiding dangerous climate impacts. However, the regional response of terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide under such a scenario are largely unknown. We focus on mountain forests in the European Alps and evaluate how a range of ecosystem services (ES) are projected to be impacted in a 2 °C warmer world, using four novel regional climate scenarios. We employ three complementary forest models to assess a wide range of ES in two climatically contrasting case study regions. Within each climate scenario we evaluate if and when ES will deviate beyond status quo boundaries that are based on current system variability. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of mountain forest ES to a 2 °C warmer world depends heavily on the current climatic conditions of a region, the strong elevation gradients within a region, and the specific ES in question. Our simulations project that large negative impacts will occur at low and intermediate elevations in initially warm-dry regions, where relatively small climatic shifts result in negative drought-related impacts on forest ES. In contrast, at higher elevations, and in regions that are initially cool-wet, forest ES will be comparatively resistant to a 2 °C warmer world. We also found considerable variation in the vulnerability of forest ES to climate change, with some services such as protection against rockfall and avalanches being sensitive to 2 °C global climate change, but other services such as carbon storage being reasonably resistant. Although our results indicate a heterogeneous response of mountain forest ES to climate change, the projected substantial reduction of some forest ES in dry regions suggests that a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature cannot be seen as a universally 'safe' boundary for the maintenance of mountain forest ES. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  4. More Intense Mega Heat Waves in the Warmer World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, G.; Robinson, D. A.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, changes in the occurrences of heat waves on the globe since the mid- 20th century and the synoptic characteristics of mega heat waves at regional scales in the warmer climate are examined. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis surface data show that there have been no obvious linear changes in the heat wave frequencies at the continental scales since the mid-20th century, but amplified interdecadal variations led to unprecedented intense heat waves in the recent decades at the regional scales. Such mega heat waves have been more frequently observed in the poleward subtropical climate belts as well as in the interior region of continents. According to the analyses of upper tropospheric data, the occurrences of more intense mega heat waves since the late 20th century may be associated with the expansion of subtropical high pressures. These results suggest that populous cities near the subtropical climate zones should provide proactive mega heat wave warning systems for residents due to their vulnerability to the sudden attack of human lives harvest by mega heat waves in the warmer 21st century.

  5. Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 °C warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosking, J. Scott; MacLeod, D.; Phillips, T.; Holmes, C. R.; Watson, P.; Shuckburgh, E. F.; Mitchell, D.

    2018-05-01

    Global climate model simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project were used to assess how wind power generation over Europe would change in a future world where global temperatures reach 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Comparing recent historical (2006–2015) and future 1.5 °C forcing experiments highlights that the climate models demonstrate a northward shift in the Atlantic jet, leading to a significant (p < 0.01) increase in surface winds over the UK and Northern Europe and a significant (p < 0.05) reduction over Southern Europe. We use a wind turbine power model to transform daily near-surface (10 m) wind speeds into daily wind power output, accounting for sub-daily variability, the height of the turbine, and power losses due to transmission and distribution of electricity. To reduce regional model biases we use bias-corrected 10 m wind speeds. We see an increase in power generation potential over much of Europe, with the greatest increase in load factor over the UK of around four percentage points. Increases in variability are seen over much of central and northern Europe with the largest seasonal change in summer. Focusing on the UK, we find that wind energy production during spring and autumn under 1.5 °C forcing would become as productive as it is currently during the peak winter season. Similarly, summer winds would increase driving up wind generation to resemble levels currently seen in spring and autumn. We conclude that the potential for wind energy in Northern Europe may be greater than has been previously assumed, with likely increases even in a 1.5 °C warmer world. While there is the potential for Southern Europe to see a reduction in their wind resource, these decreases are likely to be negligible.

  6. Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

  7. Budgets and balances in a warmer world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boer, G.J.

    1994-01-01

    Potential climate warming is studied by performing the open-quotes first standard CO2 experimentclose quotes which consists of coupling a comparatively sophisticated atmospheric general circulation model to a thermodynamically, but not dynamically, active ocean/ice model. The differences in the equilibrium climates simulated for the current or 1xCO2 case and for the new equilibrium climate that results with twice that amount of CO2 are investigated. Results indicate that although the dynamical consequences of greenhouse gas warming are not as marked nor statistically significant as the thermodynamical changes, they display an intriguing rearrangement of flow structures which take advantage of the altered thermodynamic structures in the atmosphere that occur. Since the overall forcing does not change appreciably, the poleward transport of energy remains the same but this is accomplished by an increase in latent energy transport associated with a warmer and moister lower troposphere which balances a decrease in internal and potential energy transport associated with weaker temperature gradients in this region

  8. World Energy Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forbes, A.; Van der Linde, C.; Nicola, S.

    2009-01-01

    In the section World Energy Future of this magazine two articles, two interviews and one column are presented. The article 'A green example to the world' refers briefly to the second World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, which was held from 18-21 January, 2009. The second article, 'Green Utopia in the desert' attention is paid to the Abu Dhabi government-driven Masdar Initiative. The two interviews concern an interview with BP Alternative Energy ceo Vivienne Cox, and an interview with the founder and CEO of New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich. The column ('An efficient response') focuses on the impact of the economic crisis on energy policy

  9. World Energy Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forbes, A.; Van der Linde, C.; Nicola, S.

    2009-03-15

    In the section World Energy Future of this magazine two articles, two interviews and one column are presented. The article 'A green example to the world' refers briefly to the second World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, which was held from 18-21 January, 2009. The second article, 'Green Utopia in the desert' attention is paid to the Abu Dhabi government-driven Masdar Initiative. The two interviews concern an interview with BP Alternative Energy ceo Vivienne Cox, and an interview with the founder and CEO of New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich. The column ('An efficient response') focuses on the impact of the economic crisis on energy policy.

  10. Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.

    2017-12-01

    During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO2 rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather than the return to a wetter state. What makes future projections different from these past warm climates? Here, we investigate this question by comparing a typical quadrupling-of-CO2 experiment with a simulation driven by sea-surface temperatures closely resembling available reconstructions for the early Pliocene. Based on these two experiments and a suite of other perturbed climate simulations, we argue that this puzzle is explained by weaker atmospheric circulation in response to the different ocean surface temperature patterns of the Pliocene, specifically reduced meridional and zonal temperature gradients. Thus, our results highlight that accurately predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming requires predicting not only how global mean temperature responds to elevated CO2 forcing (climate sensitivity) but also accurately quantifying how meridional sea-surface temperature patterns will change (structural climate sensitivity).

  11. Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baatsen, Michiel; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Van Delden, Aarnout J.; de Vries, Hylke

    2015-08-01

    Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks.

  12. Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing

    2018-03-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.

  13. Effects of a future warmer ocean on the coexisting copepods Calanus finmarchicus and C. glacialis in Disko Bay, Western Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjellerup, Sanne; Dünweber, Michael; Swalethorp, Rasmus

    2012-01-01

    The effects of temperature and food was examined for Calanus finmarchicus and C. glacialis during 3 phases of the phytoplankton spring bloom in Disko Bay, western Greenland. The 2 species were collected during pre-bloom, bloom, and post-bloom and exposed to temperatures from 0 to 10°C, combined...... production. Our results suggest that a future warmer ocean will reduce the advantage of early spawning by C. glacialis and that C. finmarchicus will become increasingly prevalent...

  14. Photosynthetic oxygen production in a warmer ocean: the Sargasso Sea as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Katherine; Bendtsen, Jørgen

    2017-09-13

    Photosynthetic O 2 production can be an important source of oxygen in sub-surface ocean waters especially in permanently stratified oligotrophic regions of the ocean where O 2 produced in deep chlorophyll maxima (DCM) is not likely to be outgassed. Today, permanently stratified regions extend across approximately 40% of the global ocean and their extent is expected to increase in a warmer ocean. Thus, predicting future ocean oxygen conditions requires a better understanding of the potential response of photosynthetic oxygen production to a warmer ocean. Based on our own and published observations of water column processes in oligotrophic regions, we develop a one-dimensional water column model describing photosynthetic oxygen production in the Sargasso Sea to quantify the importance of photosynthesis for the downward flux of O 2 and examine how it may be influenced in a warmer ocean. Photosynthesis is driven in the model by vertical mixing of nutrients (including eddy-induced mixing) and diazotrophy and is found to substantially increase the downward O 2 flux relative to physical-chemical processes alone. Warming (2°C) surface waters does not significantly change oxygen production at the DCM. Nor does a 15% increase in re-mineralization rate (assuming Q 10  = 2; 2°C warming) have significant effect on net sub-surface oxygen accumulation. However, changes in the relative production of particulate (POM) and dissolved organic material (DOM) generate relatively large changes in net sub-surface oxygen production. As POM/DOM production is a function of plankton community composition, this implies plankton biodiversity and food web structure may be important factors influencing O 2 production in a warmer ocean.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  15. Hydrological risks of a 2.0 oC warmer world: Assessing infrastructure exposure to the Paris Agreement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paltan, H.; Allen, M. R.; Haustein, K.; Dadson, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) in its Paris Agreement in December 2015 agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2.0 °C above pre- industrial levels. Nonetheless it is not yet clear how hydrological risks would change when this threshold is reached. In consequence, this may have important repercussions to existent or planned infrastructure as their functioning and the service they provide may be undermined if they do not adapt to shifts in water variability and, thus compromising global water security. In this study, we estimate the way in which hydrological risks will differ in a world 2 °C warmer. We used multi-ensembles outputs from 4 general circulation models (AOGCMs) participating in the HAPPI experimental protocol to generate global future river flows. From here we calculate extreme value probabilistics to calculate the increase in the frequency of the 100-year return period flow. Globally, we find that areas such as China and South Asia will be severly affecteed. Additional important changes are detected in Eastern Europe and in the area sorrounding the Gulf of California. Lastly, as a case study we show the implications of this climate target in the hydropower and transport infrastructure of Myanmar. We find that about 40% of mapped hydropower sites are in areas where the historical 100-year return period flow will significantly increase their frequency. We also find that about 30% of the roads and about 35% of the rail network of Myanmar are importantly exposed to such increases. We expect that this study is an initial step to analyse the propagation of hydrological risk associated with the Paris outcome; and thus, offer a tool to detect vulnerable population groups and economic sectors.

  16. The effect of the pathway to a two degrees warmer world on the regional temperature change of Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathrine Fox Maule

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate if the pathway to reach a 2 degree warmer world influences the regional climate in Europe at the time of 2 degrees of global warming above the pre-industrial level. We have investigated this using climate change data from ensembles of both Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models. We compare the change of regional temperature in Europe to the global temperature change for different emission scenarios, following the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, to see if the pathway has any influence. We find that there is a small but significant difference in the regional temperature change, but the effect is small compared to internal variability on the timescales involved in reaching +2 degrees for the investigated emission scenarios. From an adaptation point of view, reaching +2 degrees as slowly as possible will obviously allow for a longer time period to implement adaptation measures to mitigate the effect of climate change.

  17. Tropical cyclones in a stabilized 1.5 and 2 degree warmer world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.; Loring, B.; Krishnan, H.

    2017-12-01

    We present an ensemble of very high resolution global climate model simulations of a stabilized 1.5oC and 2oC warmer climate as envisioned by the Paris COP21 agreement. The resolution of this global climate model (25km) permits simulated tropical cyclones up to Category Five on the Saffir-Simpson scale Projected changes in tropical cyclones are significant. Tropical cyclones in the two stabilization scenarios are less frequent but more intense than in simulations of the present. Output data from these simulations is freely available to all interested parties and should prove a useful resource to those interested in studying the impacts of stabilized global warming.

  18. Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Liu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5 climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia. Less rural populations (−217.7 ± 79.2 million and −216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk

  19. Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alonso, David; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970-2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a

  20. Adapting to warmer climate through prolonged maize grain filling period in the US Midwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, P.; Zhuang, Q.; Jin, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Climate warming is expected to negatively impact the US food productivity. How to adapt to the future warmer environment and meet the rising food requirement becomes unprecedented urgent. Continuous satellite observational data provides an opportunity to examine the historic responses of crop plants to climate variation. Here 16 years crop growing phases information across US Midwest is generated based on satellite observations. We found a prolonged grain-filling period during 2000-2015, which could partly explain the increasing trend in Midwest maize yield. This longer grain-filling period might be resulted from the adoption of longer maturity group varieties or more resistant varieties to temperature variation. Other management practice changes like advance in planting date could be also an effective way of adapting future warmer climate through lowering the possibility of exposure to heat and drought stresses. If the progress in breeding technology enables the maize grain-filling period to prolong with the current rate, the maize grain filling length could be longer and maize yield in Midwest could adapt to future climate despite of the warming.

  1. Tropical forest carbon balance in a warmer world: a critical review spanning microbial- to ecosystem-scale processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Tana E.; Cavaleri, Molly A.; Reed, Sasha C.

    2012-01-01

    , heterotrophic versus autotrophic respiration, thermal acclimation versus substrate limitation of plant and microbial communities, below-ground C allocation, species composition (plant and microbial), and the hydraulic architecture of roots. Whether or not tropical forests will become a source or a sink of C in a warmer world remains highly uncertain. Given the importance of these ecosystems to the global C budget, resolving this uncertainty is a primary research priority.

  2. Mahdi Elmandjra and the Future of the Muslim World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wan Fariza Alyati Wan Zakaria

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The increasing problems and challenges facing the Muslims and the Muslim world nowadays have raised serious concern about the future of the Muslims and the Muslim World among many Muslim scholars. The post-Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979 had always been seen as the landmark of the rising discourses over the future of Islam, Muslims and the Muslim world. Mahdi Elmandjra, a prominent sociologist and futurist, is one of the Muslim scholars who consistently discuss about the issue and urge the Muslims to take responsibility to create a better future in a systematic way and not to fall into the vicious cycle of misfortunes. This paper aims at discussing Elmandjra’s views on this issue and underscoring the contribution and significance of such discourse within contemporary development.

  3. The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Raymo, M.E.; Vacchi, M.; Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Harris, D.L.; Casella, E.; O'Leary, M.J.; Hearty, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128–116 ka) is among the most studied past periods in Earth's history. The climate at that time was warmer than today, primarily due to different orbital conditions, with smaller ice sheets and higher sea-level. Field evidence for MIS 5e sea-level was reported from

  4. Hydropower and the world's energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-11-01

    The potential role of hydropower in the context of world-wide demographic growth and increasing demand for energy, and the benefits inherent in hydroelectric power in comparison with other energy options are discussed. Environmental and social impacts, and examples of mitigation measures are reviewed. Recommendations regarding best practices in the future development of hydroelectric power projects proposed

  5. The acute thermal respiratory response is unique among species in a guild of larval anuran amphibians-Implications for energy economy in a warmer future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Christopher L; Crandall, Erin A

    2018-03-15

    Climate change is bringing about increased temperatures of amphibian habitats throughout the world, where ectothermic larvae will experience elevated respiratory (metabolic) energy demands. We compared the acute, thermal respiratory response ("TRR") of four species of sympatric larval amphibians (Lithobates sphenocephalus, L. catesbeianus, Scaphiopus holbrookii, and Hyla chrysoscelis) to determine species-specific differences in the rate at which metabolic energy requirements increase with temperature. The TRR, the slope of the relationship between respiration rate and temperature within critical thermal limits, varied significantly among species such that the absolute, per capita change in metabolic energy requirement as temperature increased was greater for L. sphenocephalus and L. catesbeianus than for H. chrysoscelis and S. holbrookii. This was also reflected in the temperature coefficients (Q 10,18.5-25.5 ), which ranged from 1.77 (S. holbrookii) to 2.70 (L. sphenocephalus) for per capita respiration rates. Our results suggest that L. sphenocephalus and L. catesbeianus will experience a more rapid increase in energetic requirements as temperature increases relative to the other species, possibly magnifying their influences on the resource pool. There is a critical paucity of information on the metabolic responses of most larval amphibians across a range of temperatures, despite that this relationship dictates the magnitude of the priority investment of assimilated energy in respiration, thus shaping the energetic economy of the individual. A broader knowledge of species-specific TRRs, combined with research to determine thermal acclimatory or adaptive potentials over chronic time scales, will provide a framework for evaluating whether asymmetric, climate-mediated differences in energetic demands among species could ultimately influence larval amphibian ecology in a warmer future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Tracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, Francina; Dall'erba, Sandy; Huang, Shuyi; Avelino, Andre; Mehran, Ali; Hu, Huancui; Schmidt, Arthur; Schick, Lawrence; Lettenmaier, Dennis

    2018-03-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade Mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis River basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario in which the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty, including (a) alternative future radiative forcings, (b) different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and (c) different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases; however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increase moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption are significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

  7. Natural gas central to world's future energy mix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carson, M.M.

    1997-01-01

    Continued growth in demand for natural gas is one of three pillars around which the energy mix of the future will take shape and upon which energy strategies should be based. The others are consumption efficiency and growth of renewable energy sources. This paper evaluates world energy supply and demand and includes an analysis of world pipeline gas, electricity, and LNG trends. The paper discusses the natural gas resource, proved reserves, reserves growth, gas prices and demand, country demand trends, world energy use, gas pipeline construction, power generation, electricity consumption and prices, and global carbon emissions

  8. World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frei, Christoph; Whitney, Rob; Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Rose, Karl; Rieser, Dan A.; Al-Qahtani, Ayed; Thomas, Philip; Turton, Hal; Densing, Martin; Panos, Evangelos; Volkart, Kathrin

    2013-01-01

    The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today's choices on tomorrow's energy landscape. Rather than telling policy-makers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC's World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow This document includes the French and English versions of the executive summary and the English version of the full report

  9. Six Degrees. Our Future on a Hotter Planet; Zes graden. Onze toekomst op een warmere planeet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lynas, M.

    2008-07-01

    This grade-by-grade guide describes the effects of global warming at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6C. The author presents scientific scenarios in a row. How can we imagine a warmer climate? Already 1C warming will be a plague for granaries in the USA and tropical cyclones will happen in the Mediterranean Sea. Beyond 2C global warming is irreversible. 3C will burn the Amazon area. Then methane will burst out of the Siberian permafrost and later from the deep sea. At 6C we will be in hell. So we must prevent global warming above 2C. Now we are already at 0.75 C and the thermal inertia of the planet will double that anyway. Serious action is absolutely required. Action that goes far beyond any current policy. [Dutch] Deze graad-voor-graad-gids beschrijft de gevolgen van de opwarming bij 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 en 6C. De auteur zet als eerste alle wetenschappelijke scenario's op een rij. Wat moeten we ons voorstellen bij een warmer klimaat? Al bij 1C teisteren extreme droogtes graanschuur Amerika en verschijnen tropische orkanen in de Middellandse Zee. Voorbij de 2C wordt de opwarming onomkeerbaar. Bij 3C verbrandt het Amazonegebied. Daarna barst methaan uit de Siberische permafrost en later uit de diepzee. Bij 6C betreden we de hel. We moeten dus voorkomen dat de opwarming boven de 2C uitkomt. Nu zitten we al op 0,75C en de thermische traagheid van de planeet gaat dat sowieso nog verdubbelen. Drastische actie is absoluut vereist. Actie die veel verder gaat dan alle huidige beleid.

  10. Tracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dominguez

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric rivers (ARs account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade Mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric–hydrologic–hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis River basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario in which the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty, including (a alternative future radiative forcings, (b different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and (c different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases; however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increase moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption are significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

  11. Can the future, world-wide energy supply be achieved without nuclear energy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kugeler, K.

    1995-01-01

    In the future the world-wide energy demand is going to increase considerably. The use of nuclear energy will continuously grow if the demand of climate researchers for a reduction of the world-wide CO 2 emission is fulfilled and if the possible contribution of regenerative energy sources is assessed realistically. In the future a world-wide use of nuclear energy will be realised according to even higher safety standards. The modification of the German Atom Law, which determines the limitation of damage caused to the reactor plant for future reactors fulfils this demand. The efforts in the field of nuclear technical development will concentrate on the proof of the required safety properties. (orig.) [de

  12. Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Joshua F.; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röckmann, Thomas; Aerts, Rien; Blauw, Luke G.; Egger, Matthias; Jetten, Mike S. M.; de Jong, Anniek E. E.; Meisel, Ove H.; Rasigraf, Olivia; Slomp, Caroline P.; in't Zandt, Michiel H.; Dolman, A. J.

    2018-03-01

    Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands, marine and freshwater systems, permafrost, and methane hydrates, through shifts in temperature, hydrology, vegetation, landscape disturbance, and sea level rise. Increased CH4 emissions from these systems would in turn induce further climate change, resulting in a positive climate feedback. Here we synthesize biological, geochemical, and physically focused CH4 climate feedback literature, bringing together the key findings of these disciplines. We discuss environment-specific feedback processes, including the microbial, physical, and geochemical interlinkages and the timescales on which they operate, and present the current state of knowledge of CH4 climate feedbacks in the immediate and distant future. The important linkages between microbial activity and climate warming are discussed with the aim to better constrain the sensitivity of the CH4 cycle to future climate predictions. We determine that wetlands will form the majority of the CH4 climate feedback up to 2100. Beyond this timescale, CH4 emissions from marine and freshwater systems and permafrost environments could become more important. Significant CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from the dissociation of methane hydrates are not expected in the near future. Our key findings highlight the importance of quantifying whether CH4 consumption can counterbalance CH4 production under future climate scenarios.

  13. An uncertain future for lightning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Lee T.

    2018-02-01

    The most commonly used method for representing lightning in global atmospheric models generally predicts lightning increases in a warmer world. A new scheme finds the opposite result, directly challenging the predictive skill of an old stalwart.

  14. World energy: Building a sustainable future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schipper, L.; Meyers, S.

    1992-04-01

    As the 20th century draws to a close, both individual countries and the world community face challenging problems related to the supply and use energy. These include local and regional environmental impacts, the prospect of global climate and sea level change associated with the greenhouse effect, and threats to international relations in connection with oil supply or nuclear proliferation. For developing countries, the financial cost of providing energy to provide basic needs and fuel economic development pose an additional burden. To assess the magnitude of future problems and the potential effectiveness of response strategies, it is important to understand how and why energy use has changed in the post and where it is heading. This requires study of the activities for which energy is used, and of how people and technology interact to provide the energy services that are desired. The authors and their colleagues have analyzed trends in energy use by sector for most of the world`s major energy-consuming countries. The approach we use considers three key elements in each sector: the level of activity, structural change, and energy intensity, which expresses the amount of energy used for various activities. At a disaggregated level, energy intensity is indicative of energy efficiency. But other factors besides technical efficiency also shape intensity.

  15. How a future energy world could look?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ewert M.

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The future energy system will change significantly within the next years as a result of the following Mega Trends: de-carbonization, urbanization, fast technology development, individualization, glocalization (globalization and localization and changing demographics. Increasing fluctuating renewable production will change the role of non-renewable generation. Distributed energy from renewables and micro generation will change the direction of the energy flow in the electricity grids. Production will not follow demand but demand has to follow production. This future system is enabled by the fast technical development of information and communication technologies which will be present in the entire system. In this paper the results of a comprehensive analysis with different scenarios is summarized. Tools were used like the analysis of policy trends in the European countries, modelling of the European power grid, modelling of the European power markets and the analysis of technology developments with cost reduction potentials. With these tools the interaction of the main actors in the energy markets like conventional generation and renewable generation, grid transport, electricity storage including new storage options from E-Mobility, Power to Gas, Compressed Air Energy storage and demand side management were considered. The potential application of technologies and investments in new energy technologies were analyzed within existing frameworks and markets as well as new business models in new markets with different frameworks. In the paper the over all trend of this analysis is presented by describing a potential future energy world. This world represents only one of numerous options with comparable characteristics.

  16. How a future energy world could look?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewert, M.

    2012-10-01

    The future energy system will change significantly within the next years as a result of the following Mega Trends: de-carbonization, urbanization, fast technology development, individualization, glocalization (globalization and localization) and changing demographics. Increasing fluctuating renewable production will change the role of non-renewable generation. Distributed energy from renewables and micro generation will change the direction of the energy flow in the electricity grids. Production will not follow demand but demand has to follow production. This future system is enabled by the fast technical development of information and communication technologies which will be present in the entire system. In this paper the results of a comprehensive analysis with different scenarios is summarized. Tools were used like the analysis of policy trends in the European countries, modelling of the European power grid, modelling of the European power markets and the analysis of technology developments with cost reduction potentials. With these tools the interaction of the main actors in the energy markets like conventional generation and renewable generation, grid transport, electricity storage including new storage options from E-Mobility, Power to Gas, Compressed Air Energy storage and demand side management were considered. The potential application of technologies and investments in new energy technologies were analyzed within existing frameworks and markets as well as new business models in new markets with different frameworks. In the paper the over all trend of this analysis is presented by describing a potential future energy world. This world represents only one of numerous options with comparable characteristics.

  17. Energy in the world: The present situation and future options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.H.

    1989-01-01

    It is reported that the most notable changes on the world energy scene since 1973 concerned the shift in OPEC's role from a base to a swing producer, the disruption of the fast market penetration of nuclear power and the impacts caused by the technical advances at essentially all stages of the energy system. Further, several parts of the world witnessed a strong environmental movement which attracted public attention to the conduct of the energy industry and its social implications and environmental consequences. The lecture illuminates these events in some detail and evaluate their impacts on present and future energy demand, supply and trade patterns. The future energy outlook includes two fundamentally different scenarios. Each scenario in itself appears internally consistent. The diverging projections of future energy demand and supply mixes underlying these scenarios are the result of the inclusion/omission of technical change or dynamics of technology into the analyses. 19 refs, 22 figs

  18. Life on a warmer earth: possible climatic consequences of man made global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flohn, H

    1981-01-01

    The interaction between energy and climate is explored, including the impact on global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear and fossil fuels. The global warming problem is introduced. Comprehensive analogies with warmer times are made. From the best models available, the future global average surface temperature is found and modified, describing the global warming effects caused by greenhouse effect caused by gases other than carbon dioxide, released into the atmosphere by man, i.e. nitrous oxide, methane, ammonia, and the chlorofluoromethanes. Paleoclimatic scenarios are reviewed, showing possible effects of global warming. An 800 to 1100 ppm CO/sub 2/ concentration causes irreversible Arctic melting, leading to displacement of present climatic zones by 400 to 800 km.

  19. Projected changes of thermal growing season over Northern Eurasia in a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Baiquan; Zhai, Panmao; Chen, Yang; Yu, Rong

    2018-03-01

    Projected changes of the thermal growing season (TGS) over Northern Eurasia at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels are investigated using 22 CMIP5 models under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The multi-model mean projections indicate Northern Eurasia will experience extended and intensified TGSs in a warmer world. The prolongation of TGSs under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming is attributed to both earlier onset and later termination, with the latter factor playing a dominating role. Interestingly, earlier onset is of greater importance under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5 in prolonging TGS as the world warms by an additional 0.5 °C. Under both RCPs, growing degree day sum (GDD) above 5 °C is anticipated to increase by 0 °C-450 °C days and 0 °C-650 °C days over Northern Eurasia at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming, respectively. However, effective GDD (EGDD) which accumulates optimum temperature for the growth of wheat, exhibits a decline in the south of Central Asia under warmer climates. Therefore, for wheat production over Northern Eurasia, adverse effects incurred by scorching temperatures and resultant inadequacy in water availability may counteract benefits from lengthening and warming TGS. In response to a future 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer world, proper management and scientifically-tailored adaptation are imperative to optimize local-regional agricultural production.

  20. Energy for a righteous world with a safe future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rose, D.J.

    1977-01-01

    We are in charge of our energy future and thus of the future itself. Energy decisions in the past were made on a too narrow and short-term basis, and we can daily clearly observe their inadequacy. The policy's quality does not correspond to the significance of the problem. A greater approximation leads to a consequent policy of the development of energy alternatives, of which some considerably deviate from those which would result at a closer look. This lecture deals with two aspects of the problem, both concern the future of nuclear energy. The first aspect treats extensively the energy possibilities available to the world in the future; the second deals more with the problem of the acceptibility of nuclear energy, reprocessing of nuclear fuels, the relationship to atomic armament and the thus involved problems. (orig.) [de

  1. Pressure Infusion Cuff and Blood Warmer during Massive Transfusion: An Experimental Study About Hemolysis and Hypothermia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poder, Thomas G; Pruneau, Denise; Dorval, Josée; Thibault, Louis; Fisette, Jean-François; Bédard, Suzanne K; Jacques, Annie; Beauregard, Patrice

    2016-01-01

    Blood warmers were developed to reduce the risk of hypothermia associated with the infusion of cold blood products. During massive transfusion, these devices are used with compression sleeve, which induce a major stress to red blood cells. In this setting, the combination of blood warmer and compression sleeve could generate hemolysis and harm the patient. We conducted this study to compare the impact of different pressure rates on the hemolysis of packed red blood cells and on the outlet temperature when a blood warmer set at 41.5°C is used. Pressure rates tested were 150 and 300 mmHg. Ten packed red blood cells units were provided by Héma-Québec and each unit was sequentially tested. We found no increase in hemolysis either at 150 or 300 mmHg. By cons, we found that the blood warmer was not effective at warming the red blood cells at the specified temperature. At 150 mmHg, the outlet temperature reached 37.1°C and at 300 mmHg, the temperature was 33.7°C. To use a blood warmer set at 41.5°C in conjunction with a compression sleeve at 150 or 300 mmHg does not generate hemolysis. At 300 mmHg a blood warmer set at 41.5°C does not totally avoid a risk of hypothermia.

  2. Turn down the heat: why a 4 deg. C warmer world must be avoided

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Hare, William; Serdeczny, Olivia; Adams, Sophie; Coumou, Dim; Frieler, Katja; Martin, Maria; Otto, Ilona M.; Perrette, Mahe; Robinson, Alexander; Rocha, Marcia; Schaeffer, Michiel; Schewe, Jacob; Wang, Xiaoxi; Warszawski, Lila; Durand, Francis

    2012-11-01

    This paper summarizes in French the content of a Report for the World Bank made by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics. This report provides a snapshot of recent scientific literature (about 190 papers) and new analyses of likely impacts and risks that would be associated with a 4 deg. Celsius warming within this century. It is a rigorous attempt to outline a range of risks, focusing on developing countries and especially the poor. A 4 deg. C world would be one of unprecedented heat waves, severe drought, and major floods in many regions, with serious impacts on ecosystems and associated services. But with action, a 4 deg. C world can be avoided and we can likely hold warming below 2 deg. C. This report is not a comprehensive scientific assessment, as will be forthcoming from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013-14 in its fifth assessment report. It is focused on developing countries, while recognizing that developed countries are also vulnerable and at serious risk of major damages from climate change. A series of recent extreme events worldwide continue to highlight the vulnerability of not only the developing world but even wealthy industrialized countries. No nation will be immune to the impacts of climate change. However, the distribution of impacts is likely to be inherently unequal and tilted against many of the world's poorest regions, which have the least economic, institutional, scientific, and technical capacity to cope and adapt

  3. Future petroleum energy resources of the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlbrandt, T.S.

    2002-01-01

    Is the world running out of oil? Where will future oil and gas supplies come from? To help answer these questions, in 2000 the U.S. Geological Survey completed a new world assessment, exclusive of the United States, of the undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources and potential additions to reserves from field growth.2 One hundred and twenty-eight provinces were assessed in a 100 man-year effort from 1995-2000. The assessed provinces included 76 priority provinces containing 95% of the world's discovered oil and gas and an additional 52 "boutique" provinces, many of which may be highly prospective. Total Petroleum Systems (TPS) were identified and described for each of these provinces along with associated Assessment Units (AU) that are the basic units for assessing undiscovered petroleum. The assessment process coupled geologic analysis with a probabilistic methodology to estimate remaining potential. Within the 128 assessed provinces were 159 TPS and 274 AU. For these provinces, the endowment of recoverable oil-which includes cumulative production, remaining reserves, reserve growth, and undiscovered resources-is estimated at about 3 trillion barrels of oil (TBO). The natural gas endowment is estimated at 2.6 trillion barrels of oil equivalent (TBOE). Oil reserves are currently 1.1 TBO; world consumption is about .028 TBO per year. Natural gas reserves are about 0.8 TBOE; world consumption is about 0.014 TBOE per year. Thus, without any additional discoveries of oil, gas or natural gas liquids, we have about 2 TBOE of proved petroleum reserves. Of the oil and gas endowment of about 5.6 TBOE, we estimate that the world has consumed about 1 TBOE, or 18%, leaving about 82% of the endowment to be utilized or found. Half of the world's undiscovered potential is offshore. Arctic basins with about 25% of undiscovered petroleum resources make up the next great frontier. An additional 279 provinces contain some oil and gas and, if considered, would increase the oil

  4. Impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Khalick, S.; Jansen, P.; Kessler, G.; Klumpp, P.

    1980-08-01

    An investigation has been conducted to examine the impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future. The primary objectives of this investigation have been: (1) to determine whether hybrids can allow us to meet the projected nuclear component of the world energy demand within current estimates of uranium resources without fast breeders, and (2) to identify the preferred hybrid concept from a resource standpoint. The results indicate that hybrids have the potential to lower the world uranium demand to values well below the resource base. However, the time window for hybrid introduction is quite near and narrow (2000-2020). If historical market penetration rates are assumed, the demand will not be met within the resource base unless hybrids are coupled to the breeders. The results also indicate that from a resource standpoint hybrids which breed their own tritium and have a low blanket energy multiplication are preferable. (orig.) [de

  5. World energy: Building a sustainable future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schipper, L.; Meyers, S.

    1992-04-01

    As the 20th century draws to a close, both individual countries and the world community face challenging problems related to the supply and use energy. These include local and regional environmental impacts, the prospect of global climate and sea level change associated with the greenhouse effect, and threats to international relations in connection with oil supply or nuclear proliferation. For developing countries, the financial cost of providing energy to provide basic needs and fuel economic development pose an additional burden. To assess the magnitude of future problems and the potential effectiveness of response strategies, it is important to understand how and why energy use has changed in the post and where it is heading. This requires study of the activities for which energy is used, and of how people and technology interact to provide the energy services that are desired. The authors and their colleagues have analyzed trends in energy use by sector for most of the world's major energy-consuming countries. The approach we use considers three key elements in each sector: the level of activity, structural change, and energy intensity, which expresses the amount of energy used for various activities. At a disaggregated level, energy intensity is indicative of energy efficiency. But other factors besides technical efficiency also shape intensity.

  6. Methane feedbacks to the global climate system in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dean, Joshua F.; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röckmann, Thomas; Aerts, Rien; Blauw, Luke G.; Egger, Matthias; Jetten, Mike S.M.; de Jong, Anniek E.E.; Meisel, Ove H.; Rasigraf, Olivia; Slomp, Caroline P.; in't Zandt, Michiel H.; Dolman, A. J.

    Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands,

  7. The Future of Education into a Digital World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorica Jelev

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article investigate the role of communication in the digital age, between consumers and business and seeks to render highlighting changes within the Romanian society in the last 26 years, with the effects occurred in people's behavior, but also the changes of university education at the discipline I teach, Merchandising and International Marketing, with impact on the delivery of new information to the students of the Faculty of Economic Sciences, within Spiru Haret University. We live in an era where everything seems to change and evolve almost overnight. ”The world economic order went through a tectonic transformation, accompanied by, and in part caused by, groundbreaking advances in science and technology and the rise of globalization” . New industries start to develop, while others are on their last legs or already extinct in a world of advanced, emerging, and developing countries. As a result, lots of jobs from years past aren’t as relevant today as they once were, and many no longer exist. Therefore it’s easy to predict that eventually, today’s jobs will evolve into something completely different. And some will become obsolete. And it is those changes that lead to multiple consequences, affecting many other fields, one being education. We need a broad, flexible and motivating education that recognizes the different talents of all children and delivers excellence for everyone. Studying methods and curricula from the 20th century may no longer be relevant in the constantly evolving and changing world of the 21st century, in preparing you for your future job. And in order to maximize your chances of having a successful career in the field of your choice, you have to constantly adapt and evolve. Creative education involves a balance between teaching knowledge and skills, and encouraging innovation. New branches of industries will appear, and potential employers and employees will need to acquire new skills and abilities. And it is

  8. Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niederdrenk, Anne Laura; Notz, Dirk

    2018-02-01

    We examine the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice in scenarios with limited future global warming. To do so, we analyze two sets of observational records that cover the observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice loss per degree of global warming. The observations are combined with 100 simulations of historical and future climate evolution from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble. Based on the high-sensitivity observations, we find that Arctic September sea ice is lost with low probability (P≈ 10%) for global warming of +1.5°C above preindustrial levels and with very high probability (P> 99%) for global warming of +2°C above preindustrial levels. For the low-sensitivity observations, September sea ice is extremely unlikely to disappear for +1.5°C warming (P≪ 1%) and has low likelihood (P≈ 10%) to disappear even for +2°C global warming. For March, both observational records suggest a loss of 15% to 20% of Arctic sea ice area for 1.5°C to 2°C global warming.

  9. Short-term acclimation to warmer temperatures accelerates leaf carbon exchange processes across plant types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Nicholas G; Dukes, Jeffrey S

    2017-11-01

    While temperature responses of photosynthesis and plant respiration are known to acclimate over time in many species, few studies have been designed to directly compare process-level differences in acclimation capacity among plant types. We assessed short-term (7 day) temperature acclimation of the maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylation (V cmax ), the maximum rate of electron transport (J max ), the maximum rate of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase carboxylation (V pmax ), and foliar dark respiration (R d ) in 22 plant species that varied in lifespan (annual and perennial), photosynthetic pathway (C 3 and C 4 ), and climate of origin (tropical and nontropical) grown under fertilized, well-watered conditions. In general, acclimation to warmer temperatures increased the rate of each process. The relative increase in different photosynthetic processes varied by plant type, with C 3 species tending to preferentially accelerate CO 2 -limited photosynthetic processes and respiration and C 4 species tending to preferentially accelerate light-limited photosynthetic processes under warmer conditions. R d acclimation to warmer temperatures caused a reduction in temperature sensitivity that resulted in slower rates at high leaf temperatures. R d acclimation was similar across plant types. These results suggest that temperature acclimation of the biochemical processes that underlie plant carbon exchange is common across different plant types, but that acclimation to warmer temperatures tends to have a relatively greater positive effect on the processes most limiting to carbon assimilation, which differ by plant type. The acclimation responses observed here suggest that warmer conditions should lead to increased rates of carbon assimilation when water and nutrients are not limiting. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Khalik, S.I.; Jansen, P.; Kessler, G.; Klumpp, P.

    1981-01-01

    An investigation has been conducted to examine the impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future. The primary objectives of this investigation have been: (1) to determine whether hybrids can allow us to meet the projected nuclear component of the world energy demand within current estimates of uranium resources with or without fast breeders, and (2) to identify the preferred hybrid concept from a resource standpoint. The results indicate that hybrids have the potential to lower the world uranium demand to values well below the resource base. However, the time window for hybrid introduction is quite near and narrow (2000-2020). If historical market penetration rates are assumed, the demand will not be met within the resource base unless hybrids are coupled to the breeders. The results also indicate that from a resource standpoint hybrids which breed their own tritium and have a low blanket energy multiplication are preferable. (orig.) [de

  11. Impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Khalik, S.I.

    1980-01-01

    An investigation has been conducted to examine the impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future. The primary objectives of this investigation have been (1) to determine whether hybrids can allow us to meet the projected nuclear component of the world energy demand within current estimates of uranium resources with or without fast breeders, and (2) to identify the preferred hybrid concept from a resource standpoint. The results indicate that hybrids have the potential to lower the world uranium demand to values well below the resource base. However, the time window for hybrid introduction is quite near and narrow (2000-2020). If historical market penetration rates are assumed, the demand will not be met within the resource base unless hybrides are coupled to the breeders. The results also indicate that from a resource standpaint hybrids which breed their own tritium and have a low blanket energy multiplication are preferable. (orig.) [de

  12. World energy: the facts and the future. 2. ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedley, Don.

    1986-01-01

    The world energy situation is examined. Since the first edition of the book was written, the 1979 oil price rise has added weight to the argument that the economics of the second half of the twentieth century have been dominated by the economics of the barrel of oil. This book looks at the major fuels available - coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear energy and electricity. Each is considered in turn, looking at the reserves, costs, demand and the prospects for the future. Questions about the fuels discussed in the book include: how far will the price of oil fall, can nuclear power ever gain full public acceptance, can conservation be the 'fifth fuel', when will the development of synthetic fuels and renewable energy sources regain momentum. The energy supply and demand throughout the world is then presented taking each country, or group of countries in turn and considering each fuel. The future is then considered -prospects for synthetic fuels, renewable energy sources, eg wind and solar power and nuclear fusion. 115 tables present the data on which the book is based and its conclusions drawn. (UK)

  13. Future industrialization of the world and the necessity of nuclear power; how limited are resources?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovanovic, J.

    1996-01-01

    Will the future world be forever divided into an industrial, developed and 'rich' on one side, and primitive, undeveloped, and poor on the other? Is an industrial, affluent and sustainable world of 10-15 billion people owning 5-10 billion cars physically possible to exist. Can the world have enough food, minerals and energy to support such a widespread affluence in a sustainable manner? In previous papers i have argued that even without any major breakthroughs in science and technology, an industrialized, sustainable and affluent world can be created within the next half century, but only if breeder nuclear power is widely used throughout the world. In this paper i elaborate on the question of future availability of some basic natural resources. 18 refs. 3 figs. 1 tabs

  14. Chemical Hand Warmer Packet Ingestion: A Case of Elemental Iron Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiland, Jessica L; Sherrow, Leighanne K; Jayant, Deepak A; Katz, Kenneth D

    2017-09-01

    For individuals who work outdoors in the winter or play winter sports, chemical hand warmers are becoming increasingly more commonplace because of their convenience and effectiveness. A 32-year-old woman with a history of chronic pain and bipolar disorder presented to the emergency department complaining of a "warm sensation" in her mouth and epigastrium after reportedly ingesting the partial contents of a chemical hand warmer packet containing between 5 and 8 g of elemental iron. She had been complaining of abdominal pain for approximately 1 month and was prescribed unknown antibiotics the previous day. The patient denied ingestion of any other product or medication other than what was prescribed. A serum iron level obtained approximately 6 hours after ingestion measured 235 micrograms/dL (reference range 40-180 micrograms/dL). As the patient demonstrated no new abdominal complaints and no evidence of systemic iron toxicity, she was discharged uneventfully after education. However, the potential for significant iron toxicity exists depending on the extent of exposure to this or similar products. Treatment for severe iron toxicity may include fluid resuscitation, whole bowel irrigation, and iron chelation therapy with deferoxamine. Physicians should become aware of the toxicity associated with ingestion of commercially available hand warmers. Consultation with a medical toxicologist is recommended. Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Svalbard as a study model of future High Arctic coastal environments in a warming world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek Piskozub

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Svalbard archipelago, a high latitude area in a region undergoing rapid climate change, is relatively easily accessible for field research. This makes the fjords of Spitsbergen, its largest island, some of the best studied Arctic coastal areas. This paper aims at answering the question of how climatically diverse the fjords are, and how representative they are for the expected future Arctic diminishing range of seasonal sea-ice. This study uses a meteorological reanalysis, sea surface temperature climatology, and the results of a recent one-year meteorological campaign in Spitsbergen to determine the seasonal differences between different Spitsbergen fjords, as well as the sea water temperature and ice ranges around Svalbard in recent years. The results show that Spitsbergen fjords have diverse seasonal patterns of air temperature due to differences in the SST of the adjacent ocean, and different cloudiness. The sea water temperatures and ice concentrations around Svalbard in recent years are similar to what is expected most of the Arctic coastal areas in the second half of this century. This makes Spitsbergen a unique field study model of the conditions expected in future warmer High Arctic.

  16. Future Oil and Gas Resources of the World: A Coming Supply Crisis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlbrandt, T. S.

    2002-05-01

    Is the world running out of oil? Where will future oil and gas supplies come from? To help answer these questions, the U.S. Geological Survey completed in 2000 a new assessment of the undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources and potential additions to reserves from field growth. One hundred and twenty-eight provinces were assessed in a 100 man-year effort from 1995-2000. The assessed provinces included 76 priority provinces containing 95 percent of the world's discovered oil and gas and an additional 52 "boutique" provinces, many of which may be highly prospective. Total Petroleum Systems (TPS) were identified and described for each of these provinces along with associated Assessment Units (AU) that are the basic units for assessing undiscovered petroleum. The assessment process coupled geologic analysis with a probabilistic methodology to estimate remaining potential. Within the 128 assessed provinces, were 159 TPS and 274 AU. For these provinces, the endowment of recoverable oil, which includes cumulative production, remaining reserves, reserve growth, and undiscovered resources is estimated at about 3 trillion barrels of oil (TBO). The natural gas endowment is estimated at 2.6 trillion barrels of oil equivalent (TBOE). Oil reserves are currently 1.1 TBO; world consumption is about .028 TBO per year. Natural gas reserves are about .8 TBOE; world consumption is about .014 TBOE. Thus, without any additional discoveries of oil, gas or natural gas liquids, we have about 2 TBOE of proved petroleum reserves. Of the oil and gas endowment of about 5.6 TBOE, we estimate that the world has consumed about 1 TBOE, or 18 percent leaving about 82 percent of endowment to be utilized or found. Half of the world's undiscovered potential is offshore. Arctic basins with about 25 percent of undiscovered petroleum resources make up the next great frontier. An additional 279 provinces contain some oil and gas and, if considered, would increase the oil and gas endowment

  17. Air quality in Europe during the summer of 2003 as a prototype of air quality in a warmer climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vautard, R.; Beekmann, M.; Desplat, J.; Morel, S.; Hodzic, A.

    2007-01-01

    The extremely warm summer of 2003, with its August heat wave, is taken as a prototype of future summer weather in Europe. The stagnant circulation led to accumulation of heat and pollutants, increased forest fires, and induced high ozone and particulate matter levels. After a description of the meteorological conditions encountered, we review here the effects of the heat-wave meteorology on photochemistry, wild fires, and particulate matter, at the continental and urban scales. We discuss the extent to which this special summer can be taken for projecting air quality in a future warmer climate, especially in the perspective of changes in regional and global emissions. For ozone, the effect of regional reduction of emissions will dominate over summer climate change, but the increase in baseline ozone should significantly raise the mean ozone levels. (authors)

  18. Effect of warming and flow rate conditions of blood warmers on red blood cell integrity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poder, T G; Pruneau, D; Dorval, J; Thibault, L; Fisette, J-F; Bédard, S K; Jacques, A; Beauregard, P

    2016-11-01

    Fluid warmers are routinely used to reduce the risk of hypothermia and cardiac complications associated with the infusion of cold blood products. However, warming blood products could generate haemolysis. This study was undertaken to compare the impact of temperature of blood warmers on the per cent haemolysis of packed red blood cells (RBCs) heated at different flow rates as well as non-flow conditions. Infusion warmers used were calibrated at 41·5°C ± 0·5°C and 37·5°C ± 0·5°C. Cold RBC units stored at 4°C in AS-3 (n = 30), aged 30-39 days old, were divided into half units before being allocated under two different scenarios (i.e. infusion pump or syringe). Blood warmers were effective to warm cold RBCs to 37·5°C or 41·5°C when used in conjunction with an infusion pump at flow rate up to 600 ml/h. However, when the warmed blood was held in a syringe for various periods of time, such as may occur in neonatal transfusions, the final temperature was below the expected requirements with measurement as low as 33·1°C. Increasing the flow with an infusion pump increased haemolysis in RBCs from 0·2% to up to 2·1% at a flow rate of 600 ml/h regardless of the warming device used (P < 0·05). No relevant increase of haemolysis was observed using a syringe. The use of a blood warmer adjusted to 41·5°C is probably the best choice for reducing the risk of hypothermia for the patient without generating haemolysis. However, we should be cautious with the use of an infusion pump for RBC transfusion, particularly at high flow rates. © 2016 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  19. Growth Rate Potential of Juvenile Sockeye Salmon in Warmer and Cooler Years on the Eastern Bering Sea Shelf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward V. Farley

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available A spatially explicit bioenergetics model was used to predict juvenile sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka growth rate potential (GRP on the eastern Bering Sea shelf during years with cooler and warmer spring sea surface temperatures (SSTs. Annual averages of juvenile sockeye salmon GRP were generally lower among years with cooler SSTs and generally higher in offshore than nearshore regions of the eastern Bering Sea shelf during years with warmer SSTs. Juvenile sockeye salmon distribution was significantly (P<.05 related to GRP and their prey densities were positively related to spring SST (P<.05. Juvenile sockeye salmon GRP was more sensitive to changes in prey density and observed SSTs during years when spring SSTs were warmer (2002, 2003, and 2005. Our results suggest that the pelagic productivity on the eastern Bering Sea shelf was higher during years with warmer spring SSTs and highlight the importance of bottom-up control on the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem.

  20. Orographic cirrus in a future climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Joos

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available A cloud resolving model (CRM is used to investigate the formation of orographic cirrus clouds in the current and future climate. The formation of cirrus clouds depends on a variety of dynamical and thermodynamical processes, which act on different scales. First, the capability of the CRM in realistically simulating orographic cirrus clouds has been tested by comparing the simulated results to aircraft measurements of an orographic cirrus cloud. The influence of a warmer climate on the microphysical and optical properties of cirrus clouds has been investigated by initializing the CRM with vertical profiles of horizontal wind, potential temperature and equivalent potential temperature, respectively. The vertical profiles are extracted from IPCC A1B simulations for the current climate and for the period 2090–2099 for two regions representative for North and South America. The influence of additional moisture in a future climate on the propagation of gravity waves and the formation of orographic cirrus could be estimated. In a future climate, the increase in moisture dampens the vertical propagation of gravity waves and the occurring vertical velocities in the moist simulations. Together with higher temperatures fewer ice crystals nucleate homogeneously. Assuming that the relative humidity does not change in a warmer climate the specific humidity in the model is increased. This increase in specific humidity in a warmer climate results in a higher ice water content. The net effect of a reduced ice crystal number concentration and a higher ice water content is an increased optical depth. However, in some moist simulations dynamical changes contribute to changes in the ice water content, ice crystal number concentration and optical depth. For the corresponding dry simulations dynamical changes are more pronounced leading to a decreased optical depth in a future climate in some cases.

  1. Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

    2018-05-01

    The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

  2. Are all temperate lakes eutrophying in a warmer world?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paltsev, A.; Creed, I. F.

    2017-12-01

    Freshwater lakes are at risk of eutrophication due to climate change and intensification of human activities on the planet. In relatively undisturbed areas of the temperate forest biome, lakes are "sentinels" of the effects of rising temperatures. We hypothesise that rising temperatures are driving a shift from nutrient-poor oligotrophic states to nutrient-rich eutrophic states. To test this hypothesis, we examined a time series of satellite based chlorophyll-a (a proxy of algal biomass) of 12,000+ lakes over 30 years in the Canadian portion of the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. From the time series, non-stationary trends (detected by Mann-Kendall analysis) and stationary cycles (revealed through Morlet wavelet analysis) were removed, and the standard deviation (SD) of the remaining residuals was used as an indicator of lake stability. Four classes of lake stability were identified: (1) stable (SD is consistently low); (2) destabilizing (SD increases over time); (3) unstable (SD is consistently high); and (4) stabilizing lakes (SD decreases over time). Stable lakes were either oligotrophic or eutrophic indicating the presence of two stable states in the region. Destabilizing lakes were shifting from oligotrophic to lakes with a higher trophic status (indicating eutrophication), unstable lakes were mostly mesotrophic, and stabilizing lakes were shifting from eutrophic to the lakes with lower trophic status (indicating oligotrophication). In contrast to common expectations, while many lakes (2142) were shifting from oligotrophic to eutrophic states, more lakes (3199) were showing the opposite trend and shifting from eutrophic to oligotrophic states. This finding reveals a complexity of lake responses to rising temperatures and the need to improve understanding of why some lakes shift while others do not. Future work is focused on exploring the interactive effects of global, regional, and local drivers of lake trophic states.

  3. Long-range prospects of world energy demands and future energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozaki, Yasuji

    1998-01-01

    The long-range prospects for world energy demands are reviewed, and the major factors which are influential in relation to energy demands are discussed. The potential for various kinds of conventional and new energy sources such as fossil fuels, solar energies, nuclear fission, and fusion energies to need future energy demands is also discussed. (author)

  4. Future of Energy in Egypt and the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hani Nokraschy

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available If the whole world, which Egypt is a part of, continues business as usual in the field of electricitygeneration, namely, using the same regimes adopts today, burning fossil fuels and Uranium fission,both fuels will run out within sixty years at most and the world will definitely return to the Stone Age.Shall this be the end of the Egyptian people … the history makers?Generating energy is the next necessity to human life after water and food, since it is the majorstimulus of development. However, what is the aim of development if it is only momentary; thenfollowed by an endless abyss?Shall we wait till fossil and nuclear fuels run out? Jostling over the remaining fuel will certainly befierce and we will pay a high price for it, a matter that will subsequently lead to demolishing theingredients of development.Considering that oil is now dominating our way of life, it shall be wise to start immediately planning forthe post-oil age, provided that it is a sustainable plan set up to continue its validity as long as humanslive on this planet; this cannot be achieved except if we shift to renewable energies.Looking at Egypt and its available renewable energy sources, it becomes evident that the solarenergy, particularly in Upper Egypt, can give more than the present and future needs of the Egyptiansociety and even cover the demand of the whole world for electricity.

  5. Sustaining the future: the role of nuclear power in meeting future world energy needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.; Sun, Y.

    2003-01-01

    A description is given of recently informed analyses showing the potential that nuclear power has in meeting global energy demands. For both the electricity and transportation sectors, we can quantify the beneficial effects on the environment, and we show how nuclear power deserves credit for its role in assisting future world energy, environmental and economic sustainability. The continuing expansion of the world's and Asia's energy needs, coupled with the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) and other emissions, will require new approaches for large scale energy production and use. This is particularly important for China and Asia with respect to meeting both the energy demand and sustainability challenges. We show and explore the role of nuclear power for large-scale energy applications, including electricity production and hydrogen for transportation. Advanced nuclear technologies, such as those like CANDU's next generation ACR, can meet future global energy market needs, avoid emissions, and mitigate the potential for global climate change. We use the latest IPCC Scenarios out to the year 2100 as a base case, but correct them to examine the sensitivity to large scale nuclear and hydrogen fuel penetration. We show a significant impact of nuclear energy on energy market penetration, and in reducing GHGs and other emissions in the coming century, particularly in the industrial developing world and in Asia. This is achieved without needing emissions credits, as are used or needed as economic support for other sources, or for subsidies via emissions trading schemes. Nuclear power offers the relatively emissions-free means, both to provide electricity for traditional applications and, by electrolytic production of hydrogen, to extend its use deep into the transportation sector. For the published IPCC Marker Scenarios for Asia we show the reduction in GHG emissions when electrolysis using electricity from nuclear power assists the introduction of hydrogen as a fuel

  6. Future Industrialization of the World and the Necessity of Nuclear Power, Part II: How Limited are Resources?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovanovich, Jovan V.

    1997-01-01

    Will the future world be forever divided into an industrial, developed and 'rich' on one side, and the primitive, undeveloped, and poor on the other? Is an industrial, affluent and sustainable world of 10-15 billion people owning 5-10 billion cars physically possible to exist? Can the world have enough food, minerals and energy to support such a widespread affluence in a sustainable manner? In previous papers I have argued that even without any major breakthroughs in science and technology, an industrialized, sustainable and affluent world can be created within the next half a century to a century, but only if breeder nuclear power is widely used throughout the world. In this paper I elaborate on the question of future availability of some basic natural resources. (author)

  7. WARMER URBAN CLIMATES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF GREEN SPACES IN NORTHERN SIBERIAN CITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Esau

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Modern human societies have accumulated considerable power to modify their environment and the earth’s system climate as the whole. The most significant environmental changes are found in the urbanized areas. This study considers coherent changes in vegetation productivity and land surface temperature (LST around four northern West Siberian cities, namely, Tazovsky, Nadym, Noyabrsk and Megion. These cities are located in tundra, forest-tundra, northern taiga and middle taiga bioclimatic zones correspondingly. Our analysis of 15 years (2000–2014 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS data revealed significantly (1.3 °C to 5.2 °C warmer seasonally averaged LST within the urbanized territories than those of the surrounding landscapes. The magnitude of the urban LST anomaly corresponds to climates found 300–600 km to the South. In the climate change perspective, this magnitude corresponds to the expected regional warming by the middle or the end of the 21st century. Warmer urban climates, and specifically warmer upper soil layers, can support re-vegetation of the disturbed urban landscapes with more productive trees and tall shrubs. This afforestation is welcome by the migrant city population as it is more consistent with their traditional ecological knowledge. Survival of atypical, southern plant species encourages a number of initiatives and investment to introduce even broader spectrum of temperate blossoming trees and shrubs in urban landscapes. The unintended changes of the urban micro-climates in combination with knowledgeable urban planning could transform the Siberian pioneer settlements into places of belonging.

  8. Solar power engineering in the future world: A view from Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strebkov, D. S.

    2012-01-01

    The paper suggests an energy model for the future world based on solar power engineering and new Russian energy technologies. Chlorine-free solar silicon technologies, stationary concentrators, solar modules with service lives doubled up to 40 years, matrix solar elements with an efficiency factor of 20% at a concentration of 5-500, and resonance waveguide methods for transmitting energy for solar energy systems are considered. (author)

  9. Past, Present and Future: GATT, Free Trade Areas and... the World Trade Organization?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalo Bernardos

    1995-07-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this article are, on the one hand, to carry out a reconsideration of the workings of the commercial system since the Bretton Woods agreements and, on the other hand, to make some reflections regarding the function that the World Trade Organizationmust carry out in the future in a world divided, probably just like now, in regional areas of free trade. In order to achieve these aims the following are specified: the bases on which the liberalization of trade has been founded after the Second World War, the causes whichprovoked the wave of protectionism in the Eighties, the reasons which have brought about the division of the world into trading blocks as well as the need for an organization which encourages inter-regional trade and reduces the commercial wars between these blocks.

  10. Present and future of flat panel detectors in the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inamura, Kiyonari

    2002-01-01

    Present status of development of flat panel detectors and their clinical application in the world have been surveyed, and future trends are also explored especially in the field of material researches and methods of manufacturing. Also the importance of role of medical physicists on user side is described because characteristic physics measurement of a detector assembly is unavoidable and essential in quality assurance in clinical routine and acceptance test in hospitals. Even though physics measurements and clinical evaluations on flat panel detectors have shown remarkable progress and advances in these several years, future problems of cost down in manufacturing and quality assurance to prevent individual differences between detector assemblies must be resolved. Results of evaluation in mammography, chest radiography, fluoroscopy for cardiovascular examination, bone tumor examination and radiotherapy application indicate that flat panel detectors are future promising materials. Their systematic operation is contributing to heighten accuracy of image examinations and preciseness of radiation therapy. Encouragement to medical physicists relevant to flat panel detectors is also raised in this paper. (author)

  11. Future energy supplies. Lessons from the world energy outlook 2001. Insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cattier, F.

    2002-01-01

    At a global level, primary energy resources are amply sufficient to meet the growing needs expected over the coming decades. Energy supplies may however be affected by economic, technological or political conditions. Supplies of oil and natural gas will be dependent in particular on the carrying out of the necessary investments in the field of development, production capacity, transport and distribution within a suitable time. The future for coal is above all linked to future environmental policies to be put in place and on the capacity of 'clean' coal technologies to respond to these. Due to their costs, which remain high, and to a lack of incentive policies, renewable energy sources should find it difficult to gain a major share of world energy markets. Finally, the future for nuclear energy remains dependent upon policies concerning security of supply or the fight against climatic change. (author)

  12. Future World Energy Constraints and the Direction for Solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lightfoot, H.D.

    2004-09-12

    This paper was originally written in response to the concern that rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere caused by burning of fossil fuels will ultimately contribute to global warming. Now we are beginning to see evidence of coming problems in the supply of fuels for transportation. This paper describes the benefits of adequate energy supply and the problems of future energy supply. Partial solutions are suggested for immediate application as well as longer term solutions to address both of these concerns. To evaluate the situation and solutions we must understand: (1) how much primary energy is currently used world-wide and might be needed in 2100, (2) how important energy is to the welfare of people, (3) the forms of energy sources and end uses and (4) where new sources may come from. The major portion of world primary energy demand is provided by fossil fuels. This portion dropped from 93% in 1970 to 85% in 1995, mainly because of the increased use of nuclear energy. How ever, since the mid-1990s fossil fuels have maintained their 85% share of world energy supply. The importance of the relationship between per capita energy consumption and per capita income for the world is discussed. The limits of conservation, energy efficiency and renewable energies are examined. The contribution of renewable energies is compared to 41 different views of world energy demand in 2100. Without new technology for large scale storage of intermittent electricity from wind and solar the contribution of renewable energies is not likely to grow significantly beyond the current level of 7-8%. The paper offers conclusions and partial solutions that we can work on immediately. Examination of the forms of energy supplied by the sun, which is powered by nuclear fusion, and the way in which nuclear fission currently supplies energy to the world sets the research framework for longer term solutions. This framework points towards two possible longer term complementary res earch projects which

  13. Future World Energy Constraints and the Direction for Solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lightfoot, H.D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper was originally written in response to the concern that rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere caused by burning of fossil fuels will ultimately contribute to global warming. Now we are beginning to see evidence of coming problems in the supply of fuels for transportation. This paper describes the benefits of adequate energy supply and the problems of future energy supply. Partial solutions are suggested for immediate application as well as longer term solutions to address both of these concerns. To evaluate the situation and solutions we must understand: (1) how much primary energy is currently used world-wide and might be needed in 2100, (2) how important energy is to the welfare of people, (3) the forms of energy sources and end uses and (4) where new sources may come from. The major portion of world primary energy demand is provided by fossil fuels. This portion dropped from 93% in 1970 to 85% in 1995, mainly because of the increased use of nuclear energy. How ever, since the mid-1990s fossil fuels have maintained their 85% share of world energy supply. The importance of the relationship between per capita energy consumption and per capita income for the world is discussed. The limits of conservation, energy efficiency and renewable energies are examined. The contribution of renewable energies is compared to 41 different views of world energy demand in 2100. Without new technology for large scale storage of intermittent electricity from wind and solar the contribution of renewable energies is not likely to grow significantly beyond the current level of 7-8%. The paper offers conclusions and partial solutions that we can work on immediately. Examination of the forms of energy supplied by the sun, which is powered by nuclear fusion, and the way in which nuclear fission currently supplies energy to the world sets the research framework for longer term solutions. This framework points towards two possible longer term complementary res earch projects which

  14. A Spatio-Temporal Model of Phenotypic Evolution in the Atlantic Silverside (Menidia menidia) and Its Implications for Size-Selective Fishing in a Warmer World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sbrocco, E. J.

    2016-02-01

    A pervasive phenotypic pattern observed across marine fishes is that vertebral number increases with latitude. Jordan's Rule, as it is known, holds true both within and across species, and like other ecogeographic principles (e.g., Bergmann's Rule), it is presumed to be an adaptive response to latitudinal gradients in temperature. As such, future ocean warming is expected to impact not only the geographic range limits of marine fishes that conform to Jordan's Rule, but also their phenotype, with warmer waters selecting for fish with fewer vertebrae at any given latitude. Here I present a model of phenotypic evolution over space and time for the Atlantic silverside (Menidia menidia), a common marine fish found in coastal waters along the western North Atlantic. This species has long served as a model organism for the study of fisheries-induced selection and exhibits numerous latitudinal clines in phenotypic and life-history traits, including vertebral number. Common garden experiments have shown that vertebral number is genetically determined in this species, but correlative models of observed vertebral counts and climate reveal that SST is the single strongest predictor of phenotype, even after accounting for gene flow. This result indicates that natural selection is responsible for maintaining vertebral clines in the silverside, and allows for the prediction of phenotypic responses to ocean warming. By integrating genetic estimates of population connectivity, species distribution models, and statistical models, I find that by the end of the 21st century, ocean warming will select for silversides with up to 8% fewer vertebrae. Mid-Atlantic populations are the most mal-adapted for future conditions, but may be rescued by migration from small-phenotype southern neighbors or by directional selection. Despite smaller temperature anomalies, the strongest impacts of warming will be felt at both northern and southern edges of the distribution, where genetic rescue from

  15. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

    2017-07-01

    Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  16. In-line Microwave Warmer for Blood and Intravenous Fluids. Phase 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-02-15

    occuring in the battlefield often requires restoring normothermia and infusion of fluids, such as saline or blood, into the patient. These two...elevation is required to restore normal body temperature in response to hypothermic cardioplegic arrest induced prior to the operation. 6 1.2 System... Microfiltration Devices," Acta Annaesth Scand, 23:40- 45, 1979. [20] K Linko, K Hynynen, "Erythrocyte Damage Caused by the Haemotherm Microwave Blood Warmer

  17. The Future of the Automobile in an Oil-Short World. Worldwatch Paper 32.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Lester R.; And Others

    Possible future roles and designs of cars are examined in light of depletion of the earth's oil reserves. A major problem with regard to the rapidly changing world oil outlook is that cars will be competing with more essential claiments for scarce oil supplies including food production, industrial power, home heating, and running trucks and…

  18. World Future Mapping and Scenarios for the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vareikis Egidijus

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this text is to describe the methods of future studies, its possibilities and limitations, as well as to make some predictions about the real picture of the development of the 21st century. However, the planning is still not very reliable, and far from a “road map” framework. Thus, future studies are still balancing between science and scientific/artistic fiction. The set of methods of future investigation permits one to compose a few or even up to dozens of medium term or long term scenarios of the world’s future. There are a few well-proven laws of social and economic development as well as some partially predictable phenomena in the area of environment, biology, human ethic, etc. No future planning is secure from unpredictable phenomena – “black swans” – and their impact, nor secure from “political decisions” that destroy natural developments in society. So no one scenario can pretend to be absolutely right. The most frequent future scenarios are based on the wish to implement a copy of an existing “happy nation”, to fight undesirable trends, and create some kind of “dream society” while stimulating positives and inhibiting negative trends. The final version of a scenario depends also upon the “human factors”, e.g. knowledge, stereotypes of thinking, as well as the wishes of those who are financing the project. Generally they are “happy end” projects. This makes scenarios rather useless. Only the independent experts that present more realistic and reliable scenarios can help in the planning of medium term and long term futures. Currently many scenarios foresee the so-called American or European way of development, which is in fact the continuation of the existing world order. There is a growing number of publications about the emergence of China (and Russia as a great power as well as possibilities of a New Caliphate, New Messiah or new Orwellian style regimes.

  19. Advanced light water reactors: an economically viable part of the world's future energy mix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruschi, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    In addition to safety and reliability, a common mission for the international nuclear industry in the 21. century will be ensure affordable electricity. At the Westinghouse Electric Corporation believe our advanced light water reactor (ALWR) design gives us the opportunity to provide the safest, most reliable, lowest cost, most competitive generation method possible for use by nations and utilities worldwide. While the safety and reliability aspects of the ALWR can be proven tangibly and are well-documented, questions have been raised about the technology's ability to work within the world's selling price range for electricity generation. For our industry's financial stability, and especially for the stability of the world's future power needs, Westinghouse has done extensive work on this issue and we are convinced we can meet the competitive challenge. We believe the ALWR can be an economically viable part of the world's future energy mix. This paper will define the competitive challenge that is being addressed by the industry and then analyze three specific areas: capital costs, operating costs, and financing costs. The hidden advantage of nuclear power in responding to these challenges will be explored, and a strong case will be made asserting that the advanced light water reactor will be able to compete in international markets with viable production costs. (authors)

  20. Structural changes in the world energy supply - adaptations up to current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schuermann, H.J.

    1985-03-11

    In this analysis of world energy markets in which he pays particular attention to mineral oil, and with a background of world economic problems which have not yet been solved, the author presents a piece of modern economic history in which he also highlights the political aspects of the supply of crude oil. The world-wide contraction in oil consumption which followed two price escalations, has been caused, it is held by structural factors and is therefore of a long-term nature. Of course, in the foreseeable future, oil will easily remain the most important energy-carrier. However, it will be of less importance for Western Europe and Japan than for North America, trading states and developing countries. Nevertheless, diversification should be encouraged as quickly as possible. This does include natural gas still but for the long-term also coal and atomic energy. The author pleads for world-wide trade relations based on coal and gas in order to complement the fully integrated world oil markets. Similarly atomic energy should be developed as quickly as possible.

  1. Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buccola, Norman; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

    2016-01-01

    A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990–1999) and future (2059–2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam’s spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake’s surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake’s surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered

  2. Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buccola, Norman L.; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

    2016-04-01

    A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990-1999) and future (2059-2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam's spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake's surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake's surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered salmonids. A

  3. Development and future perspective of nuclear power plants. Current status and future prospect of world nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Masaharu

    2013-01-01

    Fukushima Daiichi NPS accidents occurred on 11 March 2011 brought about great effects on nuclear development not only in Japan but also in the world. In Japan restart of operation of periodically inspected nuclear power plants (NPPs) could not be allowed except Oi NPPs two units and most parties except Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) pledged to possibly phasing out nuclear power at House of Councillors election in July and public opinion was mostly against nuclear power after the accident. LDP clearly stated that, with the inauguration of new government last December, Japan would not pursuing the policy of the prior government of possibly phasing out nuclear power by the 2030s, but would instead make a 'zero-base' review of energy policy. Germany decided to close eight reactors immediately and remaining nine by the end of 2022. For many countries, nuclear power would play an important role in achieving energy security and sustainable development goals. In 2011 NPPs 6 units started operation with 2 units under construction, and in 2012 NPPs 3 units started operation with 7 units under construction. At present there are now over 400 NPPs operating in 31 countries and world trend seemed nuclear development was continued and number of countries newly deploying NPPs was increasing as much as eighteen. This article presented current status and future prospect of world NPPs in details. Japan would like to share its experiences and information obtained from the accident with the world and also promote NPPs overseas to meet the world's expectations. (T. Tanaka)

  4. The Future of wildland fire management in a world of rapid change and great uncertainty: Overview of a futures research project

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Bengston; Robert L. Olson; Leif A. DeVaney

    2012-01-01

    Past efforts to examine the future of wildland fire management have relied heavily on expertise from within the wildfire community. But changes in seemingly unrelated external factors - outside of the world of wildfire and fire management - can have unexpected and profound effects. This paper describes an ongoing sh1dy of the...

  5. An overview of world future energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkin, F.P.

    1995-01-01

    The World Energy Council Commission's report Energy for Tomorrow's World was published in September 1993. The Commission's three year study of world energy problems involved both bottom-up studies, undertaken by groups of experts in nine main regions of the world, and top-down studies of global aspects. The latter included the preparation of energy demand and supply projections up to the study horizon of 2020, together with a brief look at prospects up to 2100. This Paper is based on the Commission's work. (author)

  6. Large-scale water projects in the developing world: Revisiting the past and looking to the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivakumar, Bellie; Chen, Ji

    2014-05-01

    During the past half a century or so, the developing world has been witnessing a significant increase in freshwater demands due to a combination of factors, including population growth, increased food demand, improved living standards, and water quality degradation. Since there exists significant variability in rainfall and river flow in both space and time, large-scale storage and distribution of water has become a key means to meet these increasing demands. In this regard, large dams and water transfer schemes (including river-linking schemes and virtual water trades) have been playing a key role. While the benefits of such large-scale projects in supplying water for domestic, irrigation, industrial, hydropower, recreational, and other uses both in the countries of their development and in other countries are undeniable, concerns on their negative impacts, such as high initial costs and damages to our ecosystems (e.g. river environment and species) and socio-economic fabric (e.g. relocation and socio-economic changes of affected people) have also been increasing in recent years. These have led to serious debates on the role of large-scale water projects in the developing world and on their future, but the often one-sided nature of such debates have inevitably failed to yield fruitful outcomes thus far. The present study aims to offer a far more balanced perspective on this issue. First, it recognizes and emphasizes the need for still additional large-scale water structures in the developing world in the future, due to the continuing increase in water demands, inefficiency in water use (especially in the agricultural sector), and absence of equivalent and reliable alternatives. Next, it reviews a few important success and failure stories of large-scale water projects in the developing world (and in the developed world), in an effort to arrive at a balanced view on the future role of such projects. Then, it discusses some major challenges in future water planning

  7. Future wheat yields in Western Australia under a warmer and drier climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farre, Imma; Foster, Ian; Charles, Steve

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Climate change projections for the mid 21st century for southern Western Australia indicate an increase in temperatures, a decrease in rainfall and higher C02 concentrations. These changes could have adverse impacts on some agricultural systems, but they may also offer new opportunities (i.e. in areas where the risk of waterlogging may be reduced). In this paper we studied the potential impacts of climate change on wheat production by combining three modelling systems. Daily climate data for current and future conditions from the CCAM climate model was statistically downscaled to individual locations in the Western Australia wheatbelt. This climate data was then input to the APSIM-Wheat simulation model to evaluate yields and phenology under current and future climate for several soil types. The aim was to investigate the usefulness of such a modelling cascade in defining key risks to wheat cropping from projected climate change. In an earlier stage of the project, we compared climate simulation from several climate models (CSIRO Mk3, CCAM, ECHAM and HADCM), and selected the CCAM model as best representing the climate of southern Western Australia. This was used for a more detailed study of the impacts on wheat cropping. The APSIM model simulates crop development, yield, water uptake and nitrogen accumulation in response to temperature, radiation, C02 level, water and nitrogen supply. It offers a framework for investigating interactions and testing some simple adaptation options. The CCAM model simulated total annual rainfall reductions of 5-11% for 2050 across the locations studied (consistent with other model projections). Total annual rainfall reductions tended to be higher in the high-rainfall locations than in the low- or medium-rainfall locations. The highest seasonal rainfall reduction was predicted for April-June, resulting in later sowing opportunities and decreasing expected yields. The impacts of climate change varied depending on

  8. The world's nuclear future - built on material success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ion, Sue

    2010-07-01

    In our energy hungry world of the twenty-first century, the future of electricity generation must meet the twin challenges of security of supply and reduced carbon emissions. The expectations for nuclear power programmes to play a part in delivering success on both counts, grows ever higher. The nuclear industry is poised on a renaissance likely to dwarf the heady days of the 1960s and early 1970s. Global supply chain and project management challenges abound, now just as then. The science and engineering of materials will be key to the successful deployment and operation of a new generation of reactor systems and their associated fuel cycles. Understanding and predicting materials performance will be key to achieving life extension of existing assets and underpinning waste disposal options, as well as giving confidence to the designers, their financial backers and governments across the globe, that the next generation of reactors will deliver their full potential.

  9. Alternative futures for world cereal and meat consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosegrant, M W; Leach, N; Gerpacio, R V

    1999-05-01

    Fundamental changes in the global structure of food demand will lead to an extraordinary increase in the importance of developing countries in global food markets. Economic growth in developing countries is changing consumption patterns, with slower growth (and in many countries actual declines) in per capita food consumption of grains and rapidly growing per capita and total meat consumption, combined with induced growth in cereal feed consumption. The present paper examines the hypothesis, suggested by some researchers, that high-meat diets in developed countries limit improvement in food security in developing countries. These analysts argue that reduced meat consumption in developed countries would release cereals from livestock feed to food for poorer populations, thus improving food security in developing countries. Using the International Food Policy Research Institute (Washington, DC, USA) global food projections model, the international model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade (see Rosegrant et al. 1995), we first analyse the implications for future global cereal and meat supply and demand resulting from changes in global income, population growth and other structural changes, then simulate alternative scenarios to examine the effect of large reductions in meat consumption in developed countries on food consumption and food security in developing countries. The paper shows that while the long-term prospects for food supply, demand and trade indicate a strengthening of world cereal and livestock markets, the improvement in food security in the developing world will be slow, and changes in the dietary patterns in developed countries are not an effective route to improvement in food security in developing countries.

  10. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Zhao

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs. Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases – cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of −3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071–2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  11. Icebreakers, Fillers y Warmers: actividades breves para la clase de inglés

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramiro DURÁN MARTÍNEZ

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available RESUMEN: En el siguiente artículo vamos a presentar diversos tipos de ejercicios de carácter breve que hemos utilizado en la clase de inglés con el objetivo de facilitar a los alumnos la práctica de la destreza oral. Estas actividades tienen distintos nombres dependiendo de la función que desempeñen: icebreakers, fillers y warmers. Se denominan icebreakers los ejercicios diseñados para romper la tensión que normalmente rodea las primeras sesiones de cualquier nueva actividad, como, por ejemplo, la primera clase de un curso de inglés. Cuando se habla de fillers se enfatiza su función comodín: tareas independientes que normalmente sirven para completar los últimos minutos del horario establecido para la clase de idiomas. El término warmer se aplica a las actividades que se llevan a cabo después de un período vacacional con el propósito de favorecer el reencuentro del alumno con el idioma que está estudiando. El principal objetivo de estos ejercicios es el desarrollo de la capacidad de los alumnos para expresarse de forma oral utilizando la lengua inglesa, concentrándose más en la práctica de la fluidez (fluency que en la precisión (accuracy. Por otra parte, sirven para favorecer la creación de vínculos de unión entre un grupo de estudiantes.ABSTRACT: In this paper, we are going to present a number of short activities that have been used in the English class in order to give students extra speaking practice. These activities were given different names depending on the role they play in the class: icebreakers, fillers and warmers. Icebreakers are fluency practice exercises produced to defuse the tension that the first sessions of every new activity imply: i.e. the first lesson of English. When talking about fillers, we refer to short independent activities that are used when the projected exercises have taken less time than expected. Warmers are also fluency practice activities devised to put students back in touch with the

  12. The World-Wide Web past present and future, and its application to medicine

    CERN Document Server

    Sendall, D M

    1997-01-01

    The World-Wide Web was first developed as a tool for collaboration in the high energy physics community. From there it spread rapidly to other fields, and grew to its present impressive size. As an easy way to access information, it has been a great success, and a huge number of medical applications have taken advantage of it. But there is another side to the Web, its potential as a tool for collaboration between people. Medical examples include telemedicine and teaching. New technical developments offer still greater potential in medical and other fields. This paper gives some background to the early development of the World-Wide Web, a brief overview of its present state with some examples relevant to medicine, and a look at the future.

  13. Past and future trends in grey water footprints of anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to major world rivers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, C.; Kroeze, C.; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Gerbens-Leenes, Winnie

    2012-01-01

    The grey water footprint (GWF) is an indicator of aquatic pollution. We calculate past and future trends in GWFs related to anthropogenic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs into major rivers around the world. GWFs were calculated from past, current and future nutrient loads in river basins using

  14. The Future of the World Economy is an Integrated World Economic Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey Yurievich Glazyev

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Global changes in the modern world cannot be adequately described on the basis of neoliberal thinking and require a new approach. It can be formed on the basis of the cyclical-wave characterization of the development of mankind. The hypothesis about the wave-like development of the world economy with a certain cyclicity lies at the heart of thisresearch. The authors determined the economic basis of the formation, development and change of these waves (technological ways and technical revolutions. These changes reflect in the cyclical fluctuations of the world economy.The mechanism of these fluctuations is described by the theory of “large cycles of the economic conjuncture” by N. Kondratiev. The authors propose a methodology and methodological tools for analyzing and forecasting cyclic-wave processes in the economic development. The study has concluded that it is the regularities of K-cycles that allow one to correctly assess the ongoing processes in the world economy, to forecast possible variants of their development. The authors came to the conclusion that the development of the world economic structure is necessarily accompanied by a cyclical shift in the instruments of capital accumulation (material and financial expansion. These processes are reflected in the periodic replacement of scientific paradigms of economic development and management. The state always takes an active part in the phase of the dominance of productive capital, and the ideological paradigm is of a directing nature. While in the phase of domination of financial capital the liberal paradigm becomes dominant. We have substantiated the thesis about the transition from the American to the Asian systemic cycle of capital accumulation, which would inevitably lead in the middle of the 21st century to the shift of the center of the world economy from the West to the East. The paper concludes that the world is facing a change from the Monopolistic world economic structure to

  15. Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the

  16. Leadership meta-competences for the future world of work: an explorative study in the retail industry

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    To achieve this purpose a leadership meta-competence model, based on levels of work theory, was developed for the future world of work. This model was firstly validated by senior managers in the retail industry. Subsequently a questionnaire assessing the perceived importance of these competencies currently and in the future was designed. This questionnaire was completed by 101 managers from various South African retail industries. The resultant data was analysed and the results indicated that...

  17. FuturICT: Participatory computing to understand and manage our complex world in a more sustainable and resilient way

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbing, D.; Bishop, S.; Conte, R.; Lukowicz, P.; McCarthy, J. B.

    2012-11-01

    We have built particle accelerators to understand the forces that make up our physical world. Yet, we do not understand the principles underlying our strongly connected, techno-socio-economic systems. We have enabled ubiquitous Internet connectivity and instant, global information access. Yet we do not understand how it impacts our behavior and the evolution of society. To fill the knowledge gaps and keep up with the fast pace at which our world is changing, a Knowledge Accelerator must urgently be created. The financial crisis, international wars, global terror, the spreading of diseases and cyber-crime as well as demographic, technological and environmental change demonstrate that humanity is facing serious challenges. These problems cannot be solved within the traditional paradigms. Moving our attention from a component-oriented view of the world to an interaction-oriented view will allow us to understand the complex systems we have created and the emergent collective phenomena characterising them. This paradigm shift will enable new solutions to long-standing problems, very much as the shift from a geocentric to a heliocentric worldview has facilitated modern physics and the ability to launch satellites. The FuturICT flagship project will develop new science and technology to manage our future in a complex, strongly connected world. For this, it will combine the power of information and communication technology (ICT) with knowledge from the social and complexity sciences. ICT will provide the data to boost the social sciences into a new era. Complexity science will shed new light on the emergent phenomena in socially interactive systems, and the social sciences will provide a better understanding of the opportunities and risks of strongly networked systems, in particular future ICT systems. Hence, the envisaged FuturICT flagship will create new methods and instruments to tackle the challenges of the 21st century. FuturICT could indeed become one of the most

  18. Warmer weather linked to tick attack and emergence of severe rickettsioses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Parola

    Full Text Available The impact of climate on the vector behaviour of the worldwide dog tick Rhipicephalus sanguineus is a cause of concern. This tick is a vector for life-threatening organisms including Rickettsia rickettsii, the agent of Rocky Mountain spotted fever, R. conorii, the agent of Mediterranean spotted fever, and the ubiquitous emerging pathogen R. massiliae. A focus of spotted fever was investigated in France in May 2007. Blood and tissue samples from two patients were tested. An entomological survey was organised with the study of climatic conditions. An experimental model was designed to test the affinity of Rh. sanguineus for biting humans in variable temperature conditions. Serological and/or molecular tools confirmed that one patient was infected by R. conorii, whereas the other was infected by R. massiliae. Dense populations of Rh. sanguineus were found. They were infected with new genotypes of clonal populations of either R. conorii (24/133; 18% or R. massiliae (13/133; 10%. April 2007 was the warmest since 1950, with summer-like temperatures. We show herein that the human affinity of Rh. sanguineus was increased in warmer temperatures. In addition to the originality of theses cases (ophthalmic involvements, the second reported case of R. massiliae infection, we provide evidence that this cluster of cases was related to a warming-mediated increase in the aggressiveness of Rh. sanguineus, leading to increased human attacks. From a global perspective, we predict that as a result of globalisation and warming, more pathogens transmitted by the brown dog tick may emerge in the future.

  19. Developing future precipitation events from historic events: An Amsterdam case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2016-04-01

    Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase. It is therefore of high importance to develop climate change scenarios tailored towards the local and regional needs of policy makers in order to develop efficient adaptation strategies to reduce the risks from extreme weather events. Current approaches to tailor climate scenarios are often not well adopted in hazard management, since average changes in climate are not a main concern to policy makers, and tailoring climate scenarios to simulate future extremes can be complex. Therefore, a new concept has been introduced recently that uses known historic extreme events as a basis, and modifies the observed data for these events so that the outcome shows how the same event would occur in a warmer climate. This concept is introduced as 'Future Weather', and appeals to the experience of stakeholders and users. This research presents a novel method of projecting a future extreme precipitation event, based on a historic event. The selected precipitation event took place over the broader area of Amsterdam, the Netherlands in the summer of 2014, which resulted in blocked highways, disruption of air transportation, flooded buildings and public facilities. An analysis of rain monitoring stations showed that an event of such intensity has a 5 to 15 years return period. The method of projecting a future event follows a non-linear delta transformation that is applied directly on the observed event assuming a warmer climate to produce an "up-scaled" future precipitation event. The delta transformation is based on the observed behaviour of the precipitation intensity as a function of the dew point temperature during summers. The outcome is then compared to a benchmark method using the HARMONIE numerical weather prediction model, where the boundary conditions of the event from the Ensemble Prediction System of ECMWF (ENS) are perturbed to indicate a warmer climate. The two

  20. The Future of Comparative and International Education in a Globalised World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, David N.

    2003-03-01

    This article examines the history and future prospects of comparative and international education with particular reference to the impact of globalisation and Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs). Connections and interactions between comparative educationists and the technologies of printing and electronic communications are examined in a historical context. The global nature of communications in comparative and international education is demonstrated both spatially and historically, using information from all regions of the world. The changing nature of technologies is noted to have broadened the audience for comparative insights. The development of textbooks, journals, conferences, international agencies, the Internet, web-based communications, and professional comparative education societies is related to the themes of communications and globalisation.

  1. Attribution of the response of the stream flows of the Brahmaputra river basin of a 1.5°C warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saiful Islam, Akm; Mamun Rashid, Md; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Mohammed, Khaled; Uddin Khan, Md Jamal

    2017-04-01

    An increase in global average temperature due to climate change is likely to intensify the global hydrological cycle, which in turn will impact regional water resources. Changes of the frequency and magnitude of the precipitation patterns over a river basin will change the intensity of floods and droughts. It's still an active field of research to determine the impact of climate change on extreme events though the attribution community has been using large climate model ensembles to characterize the low signal to noise problems. After the Paris agreement of 2015, limiting the increase of the global temperature below 1.5°C was emphasized. However, it is not clear the benefits of additional half a degree reduction of temperature below 2°C which needs comprehensive scientific analysis. In this context, a collaborative effort of 39 academic and research institutions around the global is on-going to generate large ensemble simulations of climate projections under a project entitled, 'the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI)'. This study has made an attempt to conduct ensemble simulations of a hydrological model over a transboundary river basin (Brahmaputra) for estimating the changes in future extremes and mean discharges of the river forced by the climate projections generated under the HAPPI project. The Brahmaputra is a transboundary river originating in China and ending in Bangladesh and it is the fourth largest river in the world in terms of average discharge of approximately 20,000 cms. It drains water from approximately 520,000 sq.km. area of China, India, Bhutan and Bangladesh. An estimated 66 million people depend on water from this river for their livelihood through subsistence agriculture and thus any change in the river's discharge due to climate change may have a negative impact on this large population. A decrease in discharge during the dry season when the basin requires water for irrigation systems translates into a

  2. A study of current world telecommunications and a projection of the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karageorgis, Costas

    1992-09-01

    Telecommunications today are important factors in economic and social progress. The last decades of the 20th century and the early years of the 21st have been characterized as the Information Age. Telecommunications, the movement of information through distances, is absolutely critical to the economic and military survival of nations. This thesis is an attempt to predict the future of telecommunications, by studying and analyzing the past and present. First it examines the meaning of telecommunications today and some basics of information transmission. The current status of telecommunications is then presented, by examining the regional profiles as they are divided by the International Telecommunications Union. A number of statistical studies are given, which present a thorough picture of current world telecommunications. In an effort to predict future industry trends, the competition among the three largest telecommunications markets, U.S.A., Japan and the European Community, is also considered by looking at their present telecommunications industry, the efforts they make to improve their technology, and their plans for future investment. Finally, some major technological trends including BISDN, the use of fiber technology in the communications loop, and the use of solitons are examined. The new Metropolitan Area Network Protocol, FDDI-2 is also reviewed.

  3. Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yutong, Z., II; Wang, T.

    2017-12-01

    Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?Over the past several decades, changes in climate are amplified over the Tibetan Plateau(TP), with warming trend almost being twice as large as the global average. In sharp contrast, there is a large spatial discrepancy of the variations in precipitation extremes, with increasing trends found in the southern and decreasing trends in central TP. These features motivate are urgent need for an observation-based understanding of how precipitation extremes respond to climate change. Here we examine the relation between precipitation intensity with atmospheric temperature, dew point temperature (Td) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) in Tibet Plateau. Owing to the influences of the westerlies and Indian monsoon on Tibetan climate, the stations can be divided into three sub-regions in TP: the westerlies region (north of 35°N, N = 28), the monsoon region (south of 30°N in TP, N = 31), and the transition region (located between 30°N and 35°N, N = 48). We found that the intensity precipitation does not follow the C-C relation and there is a mix of positive and negative slope. To better understand why different scaling occurs with temperature in district region, using the dew point temperature replace the temperature, although there is significant variability in relative humidity values, at most stations, there appears to be a general increase in relative humidity associated. It is likely that the observed rise in relative humidity can assist in explaining the negative scaling of extreme precipitation at westerlies domain and monsoon domain, with the primary reason why precipitation extremes expected to increase follows from the fact that a warmer atmosphere can "hold" more moisture. This suggests that not only on how much the moisture the atmosphere can hold, but on how much moisture exits in atmosphere. To understand the role of dynamic on extreme precipitation, we repeat the precipitation

  4. Towards a new world: The contributions of nuclear energy to a sustainable future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R. B.; Miller, A. I.; Fehrenbach, P. J.; Kuran, S.; Tregunno, D.; Suppiah, S.

    2007-01-01

    Over the last few years, the world has seen growing concern about the sustainability of the Planet when supplying increasing energy use. The major issues are: increased energy prices in the world markets; growing energy demand in emerging economies; security and stability of oil and gas supply; potentially adverse climate change due to carbon-based emissions; and the need to deploy economic, sustainable and reliable alternates. Large undefined 'wedges' of alternate energy technologies are needed. In light of these major difficulties, there is renewed interest and need for a greater role for nuclear energy as a safe, sustainable and economic energy contributor. The shift has been, from being viewed by some as politically discounted, to being accepted as absolutely globally essential. We have carefully considered, and systematically, extensively and technically analyzed the contributions that nuclear energy can and should make to a globally sustainable energy future. These include restraining emissions, providing safe and secure power, operating synergistically with other sources, and being both socially and fiscally attractive. Therefore, we quantify in this paper the major contributions: a) The reduction in climate change potential and the global impact of future nuclear energy deployment through emissions reduction, using established analysis tools which varying the plausible future penetration and scale of nuclear energy. b) The minimization of economic costs and the maximization of global benefits, including investment requirements, carbon price implications, competitive market penetration, and effect of variable daily pricing. c) The introduction of fuel switching, including base-load nuclear energy synergistically enabling both hydrogen production and the introduction of significant wind power. d) The management and reduction of waste streams, utilizing intelligent designs and fuel cycles that optimize fuel resource use and minimize emissions, waste disposal

  5. Reduced Urban Heat Island intensity under warmer conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Anna A.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Zaitchik, Ben F.

    2018-06-01

    The Urban Heat Island (UHI), the tendency for urban areas to be hotter than rural regions, represents a significant health concern in summer as urban populations are exposed to elevated temperatures. A number of studies suggest that the UHI increases during warmer conditions, however there has been no investigation of this for a large ensemble of cities. Here we compare urban and rural temperatures in 54 US cities for 2000–2015 and show that the intensity of the Urban Heat Island, measured here as the differences in daily-minimum or daily-maximum temperatures between urban and rural stations or ΔT, in fact tends to decrease with increasing temperature in most cities (38/54). This holds when investigating daily variability, heat extremes, and variability across climate zones and is primarily driven by changes in rural areas. We relate this change to large-scale or synoptic weather conditions, and find that the lowest ΔT nights occur during moist weather conditions. We also find that warming cities have not experienced an increasing Urban Heat Island effect.

  6. Hope in Africa?: social representations of world history and the future in six African countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabecinhas, Rosa; Liu, James H; Licata, Laurent; Klein, Olivier; Mendes, Júlio; Feijó, João; Niyubahwe, Aline

    2011-10-01

    Data on social representations of world history have been collected everywhere in the world except sub-Saharan Africa. Two studies using open-ended data involving university students from six African countries fill this gap. In Study 1, nominations from Cape Verde and Mozambique for the most important events in world history in the past 1000 years were dominated by war and politics, recency effects, and Western-centrism tempered by African sociocentrism on colonization and independence. The first three findings replicated previous research conducted in other parts of the world, but the last pattern contrasted sharply with European data. Study 2 employed a novel method asking participants how they would begin the narration of world history, and then to describe a major transition to the present. Participants most frequently wrote about the evolution of humanity out of Africa, followed by war and then colonization as a beginning, and then replicated previous findings with war, colonization, and technology as major transitions to the present. Finally, when asked about how they foresaw the future, many participants expressed hope for peace and cooperation, especially those facing more risk of collective violence (Burundi and Congo). A colonial/liberation narrative was more predominant in the data from former Portuguese colonies (Angola, Cape Verde, and Guinea-Bissau) than from former Belgian colonies (Burundi and Congo).

  7. Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, Cyril; Medlock, Jolyon M.; Ducheyne, Els; McIntyre, K. Marie; Leach, Steve; Baylis, Matthew; Morse, Andrew P.

    2012-01-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion. PMID:22535696

  8. World energy. The facts and the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedley, D.

    1981-01-01

    This book examines how energy [including nuclear energy] is used in the world and how much energy is used; fuel resources - where they are, how long they will last, which countries have the fuel and which countries need it the most; the implications of the energy crisis for transport; the development of synthetics; the impact of conservation; the renewable energy sources and what progress is being made with them. The book forecasts how the world energy economy will have changed by the year 2000 and what is likely to happen beyond. (author)

  9. World energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curtis, D.L.

    1990-01-01

    Three major concerns face mankind's future: the impending energy crisis as caused by the depletion of the world's fossil fuel reserves, world atmospheric pollution as caused by the burning of these fuels, and mankind's destruction if the vast energy contained in nuclear weapons stockpiles is released in a global conflict. This paper describes an ambitious, combined solution to these problems by the use of deep underground detonations of thermonuclear devices/bombs to provide a virtually pollution free, world energy source into the far distant future, while achieving a significant increase in mutual trust between the superpowers and all nations. The key is believed to be thermonuclear geothermal stimulation to produce the electrical power needed for a hydrogen economy

  10. [The future of hygiene in a world of technology--hygiene and historicism].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habs, H

    1985-03-01

    Stimulated by "historicism", a term coined by Karl Popper, statements uttered by the philosophers Heidegger, Jaspers and Guardini are analysed to see whether historical forecasts are possible which justify a gloomy outlook of the world's future, such as is presently spreading as a result of the concern about an excessive invasion of our life by technology. Man has liberated himself from his original dependence on the natural forces of his environment thanks to the technology he has developed. He has severed his ties with this environment, but must not be overwhelmed by technocracy. Also, we hygienists, should allow for the historical development of our natural and social environment, in addition to the results of laboratory analyses and field studies.

  11. [On academic thought and clinical application of LI Yan-Fang's middle-warmer energy method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Li-Jun

    2010-10-01

    The present paper introduces LI Yan-Fang's middle-warmer energy method from acupoint selection, needling methods, treatment principle and his clinical experiences in treatment of stroke and insomnia etc. The acupuncture prescription of this method consist of Shangwan (CV 13), Zhongwan (CV 12), Jianli (CV 11), Xiawan (CV 10), Shuifen (CV 9), Huangshu (KI 16) and Qihai (CV 6) etc as the main acupoints combined with strict manipulation and depth of needling to treat clinical diseases.

  12. Domestic and world trends (1980 - 2000) affecting the future of aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, N.; Overholt, W.; Thomas, J.; Wiener, A. J.

    1975-01-01

    Variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century are studied. Estimates of relevant future developments are presented and their probable impact on the aviation industry in this country are identified. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis, a series of scenarios are developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand, to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A surprise free scenario is presented which represents the best judgment of the manner in which events will most probably develop and the effect on the aviation industry such developments will likely produce.

  13. Past and future trends in cancer and biomedical research: a comparison between Egypt and the world using PubMed-indexed publications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeeneldin, Ahmed Abdelmabood; Taha, Fatma Mohamed; Moneer, Manar

    2012-07-10

    PubMed is a free web literature search service that contains almost 21 millions of abstracts and publications with almost 5 million user queries daily. The purposes of the study were to compare trends in PubMed-indexed cancer and biomedical publications from Egypt to that of the world and to predict future publication volumes. The PubMed was searched for the biomedical publications between 1991 and 2010 (publications dates). Affiliation was then limited to Egypt. Further limitation was applied to cancer, human and animal publications. Poisson regression model was used for prediction of future number of publications between 2011 and 2020. Cancer publications contributed 23% to biomedical publications both for Egypt and the world. Egyptian biomedical and cancer publications contributed about 0.13% to their world counterparts. This contribution was more than doubled over the study period. Egyptian and world's publications increased from year to year with rapid rise starting the year 2003. Egyptian as well as world's human cancer publications showed the highest increases. Egyptian publications had some peculiarities; they showed some drop at the years 1994 and 2002 and apart from the decline in the animal: human ratio with time, all Egyptian publications in the period 1991-2000 were significantly more than those in 2001-2010 (P PubMed publications, respectively. The Egyptian contribution to world's biomedical and cancer publications needs significant improvements through research strategic planning, setting national research priorities, adequate funding and researchers' training.

  14. The changing world of gas exploration present and future trends; Les evolutions dans le secteur de l'exploration du gaz tendances actuelles et futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duval, B C [Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP), 92 - Rueil-Malmaison (France); Maisonnier, G [Gedigaz, France (France)

    2000-07-01

    The industry has, in the past decade, added much more gas than it has produced, resulting in a 36% increase in world reserves. Therefore the resource base is no longer considered a serious constraint in satisfying the industry's needs. Under such circumstances, one may ask the question: is exploration for gas still needed? One way in which we may deal with this major issue would be to analyse the changes that occur in the upstream world, in relation to technology, the general business context and industry's strategies and their potential impact on future trends. Dramatic advancements in exploration technologies have helped to improve success ratios and prediction of fluid, and to open new prospective areas, while also reducing costs. From a State point of view, exploration constitutes a long term objective to contend with natural gas consumption growth without depending too much on imports, or to develop resources for exports. From a company perception, exploration appears as a necessity not only for future growth but also for geographical or geopolitical opportunities. Gas reserve additions will come increasingly from a combination of exploration and production deals. The numerous new opportunities created by a more open business environment will facilitate such developments. (authors)

  15. World-wide environmental problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wohlers, H.C.

    1975-01-01

    Man and the physical and natural resources necessary to support him in a civilized society are on a collision course. It is simple to say that man cannot continue to grow in number at an ever-increasing rate without a destructive effect upon the environment. Positive scientific proof for this impending calamity is not now available, yet many indications--sometimes physical and sometimes natural--point toward major world-wide environmental troubles in the near future. A number of environmental problems are described, particularly as they relate to the total world system. A computer model simulating future world-wide environmental trends from 1900 to 2100 A.D. is evaluated and suggested as a major tool for data-gathering purposes to determine the extent of world-wide environmental problems. It is suggested that scientists take an active role in the study of the environment, particularly in relation to man's future on earth

  16. Intra-operative warming with a forced-air warmer in preventing hypothermia after tourniquet deflation in elderly patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Y-S; Jeon, Y-S; Lee, J-A; Park, W-K; Koh, H-S; Joo, J-D; In, J-H; Seo, K-W

    2009-01-01

    This randomized, single-blind study aimed to explore the effects of intra-operative warming with a forced-air warmer in the prevention of hypothermia after tourniquet deflation in elderly patients undergoing unilateral total knee replacement arthroplasty under general anaesthesia. Patients were randomized to receive either intra-operative warming using a forced-air warmer with an upper body blanket (warming group; n = 12) or no intra-operative warming (nonwarming group; n = 12). Oesophageal temperature was measured as core body temperature. At 30 min following tourniquet inflation, the core body temperature started to increase in the warming group whereas it continued to drop in the non-warming group. This difference was statistically significant. The final core body temperature after tourniquet deflation was significantly higher in the warming group (mean +/- SD 36.1 +/- 0.2 degrees C) than in the non-warming group (35.4 +/- 0.3 degrees C). Intra-operative forced-air warming increased the core body temperature before tourniquet deflation and prevented subsequent hypothermia in elderly patients under general anaesthesia.

  17. Intertidal oysters reach their physiological limit in a future high-CO2 world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanes, Elliot; Parker, Laura M; O'Connor, Wayne A; Stapp, Laura S; Ross, Pauline M

    2017-03-01

    Sessile marine molluscs living in the intertidal zone experience periods of internal acidosis when exposed to air (emersion) during low tide. Relative to other marine organisms, molluscs have been identified as vulnerable to future ocean acidification; however, paradoxically it has also been shown that molluscs exposed to high CO 2 environments are more resilient compared with those molluscs naive to CO 2 exposure. Two competing hypotheses were tested using a novel experimental design incorporating tidal simulations to predict the future intertidal limit of oysters in a high-CO 2 world; either high-shore oysters will be more tolerant of elevated P CO 2 because of their regular acidosis, or elevated P CO 2  will cause high-shore oysters to reach their limit. Sydney rock oysters, Saccostrea glomerata , were collected from the high-intertidal and subtidal areas of the shore and exposed in an orthogonal design to either an intertidal or a subtidal treatment at ambient or elevated P CO 2 , and physiological variables were measured. The combined treatment of tidal emersion and elevated P CO 2  interacted synergistically to reduce the haemolymph pH (pH e ) of oysters, and increase the P CO 2  in the haemolymph ( P e,CO 2 ) and standard metabolic rate. Oysters in the intertidal treatment also had lower condition and growth. Oysters showed a high degree of plasticity, and little evidence was found that intertidal oysters were more resilient than subtidal oysters. It is concluded that in a high-CO 2 world the upper vertical limit of oyster distribution on the shore may be reduced. These results suggest that previous studies on intertidal organisms that lacked tidal simulations may have underestimated the effects of elevated P CO 2 . © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  18. The changing world of gas exploration present and future trends; Les evolutions dans le secteur de l'exploration du gaz tendances actuelles et futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duval, B.C. [Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP), 92 - Rueil-Malmaison (France); Maisonnier, G. [Gedigaz, France (France)

    2000-07-01

    The industry has, in the past decade, added much more gas than it has produced, resulting in a 36% increase in world reserves. Therefore the resource base is no longer considered a serious constraint in satisfying the industry's needs. Under such circumstances, one may ask the question: is exploration for gas still needed? One way in which we may deal with this major issue would be to analyse the changes that occur in the upstream world, in relation to technology, the general business context and industry's strategies and their potential impact on future trends. Dramatic advancements in exploration technologies have helped to improve success ratios and prediction of fluid, and to open new prospective areas, while also reducing costs. From a State point of view, exploration constitutes a long term objective to contend with natural gas consumption growth without depending too much on imports, or to develop resources for exports. From a company perception, exploration appears as a necessity not only for future growth but also for geographical or geopolitical opportunities. Gas reserve additions will come increasingly from a combination of exploration and production deals. The numerous new opportunities created by a more open business environment will facilitate such developments. (authors)

  19. Designing urban spaces and buildings to improve sustainability and quality of life in a warmer world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Claire; Levermore, Geoff

    2008-01-01

    It is in cities that the negative impacts of a warming climate will be felt most strongly. The summer time comfort and well-being of the urban population will become increasingly compromised under future scenarios for climate change and urbanisation. In contrast to rural areas, where night-time relief from high daytime temperatures occurs as heat is lost to the sky, the city environment stores and traps heat and offers little respite from high temperatures. This urban heat island effect is responsible for temperature differences of up to 7 deg. C between cities and the country in the UK. We already have experience of the potential hazards of these higher temperatures. The majority of heat-related fatalities during the summer of 2003 were in urban areas. This means that the cooling of the urban environment is a high priority for urban planners and designers. Proven ways of doing this include altering the urban microclimate by modifying its heat absorption and emission, for example through urban greening, the use of high-reflectivity materials, and by increasing openness to allow cooling winds. Buildings themselves can also deliver improved comfort and higher levels of sustainability by taking advantage of exemplary facade, glazing and ventilation designs. In addition, changed behaviour by building occupants can help keep urban areas cool. The technology to reduce the future vulnerability of city dwellers to thermal discomfort is already largely in existence. But there is a need for complementary policy and planning commitments to manage its implementation, especially in existing buildings and urban areas

  20. The future of Arctic benthos: Expansion, invasion, and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renaud, Paul E.; Sejr, Mikael K.; Bluhm, Bodil A.; Sirenko, Boris; Ellingsen, Ingrid H.

    2015-12-01

    One of the logical predictions for a future Arctic characterized by warmer waters and reduced sea-ice is that new taxa will expand or invade Arctic seafloor habitats. Specific predictions regarding where this will occur and which taxa are most likely to become established or excluded are lacking, however. We synthesize recent studies and conduct new analyses in the context of climate forecasts and a paleontological perspective to make concrete predictions as to relevant mechanisms, regions, and functional traits contributing to future biodiversity changes. Historically, a warmer Arctic is more readily invaded or transited by boreal taxa than it is during cold periods. Oceanography of an ice-free Arctic Ocean, combined with life-history traits of invading taxa and availability of suitable habitat, determine expansion success. It is difficult to generalize as to which taxonomic groups or locations are likely to experience expansion, however, since species-specific, and perhaps population-specific autecologies, will determine success or failure. Several examples of expansion into the Arctic have been noted, and along with the results from the relatively few Arctic biological time-series suggest inflow shelves (Barents and Chukchi Seas), as well as West Greenland and the western Kara Sea, are most likely locations for expansion. Apparent temperature thresholds were identified for characteristic Arctic and boreal benthic fauna suggesting strong potential for range constrictions of Arctic, and expansions of boreal, fauna in the near future. Increasing human activities in the region could speed introductions of boreal fauna and reduce the value of a planktonic dispersal stage. Finally, shelf regions are likely to experience a greater impact, and also one with greater potential consequences, than the deep Arctic basin. Future research strategies should focus on monitoring as well as compiling basic physiological and life-history information of Arctic and boreal taxa, and

  1. Oil and the world economy: some possible futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumhof, Michael; Muir, Dirk

    2014-01-13

    This paper, using a six-region dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy, assesses the output and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies, the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, output growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.

  2. Climate mitigation under an uncertain technology future: A TIAM-World analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labriet, Maryse; Kanudia, Amit; Loulou, Richard

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores the impacts of long-term technology and climate uncertainties on the optimal evolution of the World energy system. Stochastic programming with the TIAM-World model is used for a parametric analysis of hedging strategies, varying the probabilities associated to each of two contrasted technology outlooks. The parametric analysis constitutes an original supplement to the computation of hedging strategies by identifying technologies that are robust under a broad range of probabilities of the two technology outlooks. Natural gas appears to be one of the most appealing robust options in an uncertain technological context, especially in China, given its relatively low emissions and the low capital cost of associated technologies. Natural gas and some other options are in fact considered as “super-hedging” actions, penetrating more in the hedging solution than in any of the deterministic scenarios. Nuclear power and CCS use are less robust: they depend much more on either the level of the climate target or the probabilities of the technology outlooks. The analysis also shows that technological uncertainty has a greater impact under milder climate targets than under more severe ones. Future research might consider a larger set of possible technology outlooks, as well as specific analyses focused on key characteristics of low-carbon technologies. - Highlights: ► The hedging strategy is not an average of deterministic strategies. ► The hedging offers a mix of abatement actions that cannot easily be found otherwise. ► Natural gas is an appealing choice in an uncertain context, especially in China. ► China reduces its emissions only when options in other countries are exhausted.

  3. Potential costs of acclimatization to a warmer climate: growth of a reef coral with heat tolerant vs. sensitive symbiont types.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Jones

    Full Text Available One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.

  4. Potential Costs of Acclimatization to a Warmer Climate: Growth of a Reef Coral with Heat Tolerant vs. Sensitive Symbiont Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

    2010-01-01

    One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change. PMID:20454653

  5. Potential costs of acclimatization to a warmer climate: growth of a reef coral with heat tolerant vs. sensitive symbiont types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

    2010-05-03

    One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.

  6. Alien species in a warmer world: risks and opportunities

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pyšek, Petr; Jarošík, Vojtěch

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 24, č. 12 (2009), s. 686-693 ISSN 0169-5347 Grant - others:Evropská komise(XE) GOCE-CT-2003-506675 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : biological invasions * climate change * novel communities Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 11.564, year: 2009

  7. The need for nuclear power. Viewpoint on the world's challenging energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhodes, R.; Beller, D.

    2000-01-01

    To meet the world's growing need for energy, the Royal Society and Royal Academy report proposes 'the formation of an international body for energy research and development, funded by contributions from individual nations on the basis of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or total national energy consumption'. The body would be 'a funding agency supporting research, development and demonstrators elsewhere, not a research center itself'. Its budget might build to an annual level of some $25 billion, 'roughly 1% of the total global energy budget'. If it truly wants to develop efficient and responsible energy supplies, such a body should focus on the nuclear option, on establishing a secure international nuclear-fuel storage and reprocessing system, and on providing expertise for siting, financing, and licensing modular nuclear power systems to developing nations. According to authors, who study the dynamics of energy technologies, 'the share of energy supplied by electricity is growing rapidly in most countries and worldwide'. Throughout history, humankind has gradually decarbonized its dominant fuels, moving steadily away from the more polluting, carbon-rich sources. Thus the world has gone from coal (which has one hydrogen atom per carbon atom and was dominant from 1880 to 1950) to oil (with two hydrogens per carbon, dominant from 1950 to today). Natural gas (four hydrogens per carbon) is steadily increasing its market share. But nuclear fission produces no carbon at all. Physical reality - not arguments about corporate greed, hypothetical risks, radiation exposure, or waste disposal - ought to inform decisions vital to the future of the world. Because diversity and redundancy are important for safety and security, renewable energy sources ought to retain a place in the energy economy of the century to come. But nuclear power should be central. Despite its outstanding record, it has instead been relegated by its opponents to the same twilight zone of contentious

  8. Electricity generation in the world and Ukraine: Current status and future developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Zvorykin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Electricity generation is the key factor for advances in industry, agriculture, technology and the level of living. Also, strong power industry with diverse energy sources is very important for country independence. In general, electricity can be generated from: 1 non-renewable energy sources such as coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear; and 2 renewable energy sources such as hydro, biomass, wind, geothermal, solar, and wave power. However, the major energy sources for electricity generation in the world are: 1 thermal power – primarily using coal (~40% and secondarily natural gas (~23%; 2 “large” hydro power plants (~17% and 3 nuclear power from various reactor designs (~11%. The rest of the energy sources for electricity generation is from using oil (~4% and renewable sources such as biomass, wind, geothermal and solar (~5%, which have just visible impact in selected countries. In addition, energy sources, such as wind and solar, and some others, like tidal and wave-power, are intermittent from depending on Mother Nature. And cannot be used alone for industrial electricity generation. Nuclear power in Ukraine is the most important source of electricity generation in the country. Currently, Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs generate about 45.5% of the total electricity followed with coal generation ‒ 38%, gas generation 9.6% and the rest is based on renewable sources, mainly on hydro power plants – 5.9%. Nuclear-power industry is based on four NPPs (15 Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs including the largest one in Europe ‒ Zaporizhzhya NPP with about 6,000 MWel gross installed capacity. Two of these 15 reactors have been built and put into operation in 70-s, ten in 80-s, one in 90-s and just two in 2004. Therefore, based on an analysis of the world power reactors in terms of their maximum years of operation (currently, the oldest reactors are ~45-year old several projections have been made for future of the nuclear-power industry

  9. Third-world development: urbanizing for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcilwaine, C

    1997-01-01

    This article reviews some issues reflected in the 1996 UN Habitat II agenda and recent research on urbanization. The themes of the 1996 Habitat conference were urban development, urban poverty, and governance, civil society, and social capital. It is expected that over 50% of total world population will live in cities in the year 2000. Cities are viewed both as engines of economic growth and centers of severe economic, environmental, and social problems. There is some disagreement about whether cities are rational economic structures or what the World Bank's urban agenda is and its relationship with macroeconomic policy. Discussions of global urban issues are criticized for their neglect of issues of equity and poverty, cultural diversity, and identity and representation. Habitat II also stressed urban sustainability. There is growing recognition that urban management involves more than the "Brown Agenda" of environmental and physical aspects of urban growth. Recent studies identify how politics and power affect people's access to basic urban services. Urban economic activity can also contribute to environmental problems. Urban growth affects the provision of health services. Although there is not a consensus on the role of cities in expanding economic and social development and the best management practices, there is sufficient evidence to indicate that urban processes are varied throughout the developing world. The links between urban and rural areas differentiate cities and expose the need to understand the role of intermediate urban areas surrounding and between larger cities. Poverty has become increasingly urbanized, but the extent of poverty is unknown. Habitat II was an unprecedented effort to engage nongovernment groups, local government staff, trade unions, and the private sector and to emphasize community participation. Networks of trust and reciprocity are key to solving poverty, inequality, and disempowerment problems.

  10. Natural-gas world reserves and world resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eickhoff, G.; Rempel, H.

    1995-01-01

    Natural gas is extracted in nearly 80 countries, 12 of which have a share of four fifths in the world extraction and 15 of which have a share of four fifths in the world consumption. The natural-gas world reserves can cover the present annual demand for years beyond the middle of the coming century. According to current assessments, the resources which presently cannot be extracted economically, the expected additional resources, and the extractable share in the potential of unconventional natural gas amount to more than ten times the reliable world reserves of natural gas. From the geological and technical points of view the world natural-gas extraction will not decrease or cease in the near future. However, the more expensive development of unconventional deposits which are located far away from the end-user will have to be preferred over the medium term on account of the exhaustion of the known deposits whose exploitation is comparatively cheap. (orig./UA) [de

  11. The Future of Pork Production in the World: Towards Sustainable, Welfare-Positive Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGlone, John J

    2013-05-15

    Among land animals, more pork is eaten in the world than any other meat. The earth holds about one billion pigs who deliver over 100 mmt of pork to people for consumption. Systems of pork production changed from a forest-based to pasture-based to dirt lots and finally into specially-designed buildings. The world pork industry is variable and complex not just in production methods but in economics and cultural value. A systematic analysis of pork industry sustainability was performed. Sustainable production methods are considered at three levels using three examples in this paper: production system, penning system and for a production practice. A sustainability matrix was provided for each example. In a comparison of indoor vs. outdoor systems, the food safety/zoonoses concerns make current outdoor systems unsustainable. The choice of keeping pregnant sows in group pens or individual crates is complex in that the outcome of a sustainability assessment leads to the conclusion that group penning is more sustainable in the EU and certain USA states, but the individual crate is currently more sustainable in other USA states, Asia and Latin America. A comparison of conventional physical castration with immunological castration shows that the less-common immunological castration method is more sustainable (for a number of reasons). This paper provides a method to assess the sustainability of production systems and practices that take into account the best available science, human perception and culture, animal welfare, the environment, food safety, worker health and safety, and economics (including the cost of production and solving world hunger). This tool can be used in countries and regions where the table values of a sustainability matrix change based on local conditions. The sustainability matrix can be used to assess current systems and predict improved systems of the future.

  12. The Future of Pork Production in the World: Towards Sustainable, Welfare-Positive Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John J. McGlone

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Among land animals, more pork is eaten in the world than any other meat. The earth holds about one billion pigs who deliver over 100 mmt of pork to people for consumption. Systems of pork production changed from a forest-based to pasture-based to dirt lots and finally into specially-designed buildings. The world pork industry is variable and complex not just in production methods but in economics and cultural value. A systematic analysis of pork industry sustainability was performed. Sustainable production methods are considered at three levels using three examples in this paper: production system, penning system and for a production practice. A sustainability matrix was provided for each example. In a comparison of indoor vs. outdoor systems, the food safety/zoonoses concerns make current outdoor systems unsustainable. The choice of keeping pregnant sows in group pens or individual crates is complex in that the outcome of a sustainability assessment leads to the conclusion that group penning is more sustainable in the EU and certain USA states, but the individual crate is currently more sustainable in other USA states, Asia and Latin America. A comparison of conventional physical castration with immunological castration shows that the less-common immunological castration method is more sustainable (for a number of reasons. This paper provides a method to assess the sustainability of production systems and practices that take into account the best available science, human perception and culture, animal welfare, the environment, food safety, worker health and safety, and economics (including the cost of production and solving world hunger. This tool can be used in countries and regions where the table values of a sustainability matrix change based on local conditions. The sustainability matrix can be used to assess current systems and predict improved systems of the future.

  13. Can latent heat safely warm blood? – in vitro testing of a portable prototype blood warmer

    OpenAIRE

    McEwen, Mark P; Roxby, David

    2007-01-01

    Abstract Background Trauma/retrieval patients are often in shock and hypothermic. Treatment of such patients usually involves restoring their blood volume with transfusion of blood (stored at 2°C – 6°C) and/or crystalloids or colloids (stored at ambient temperature). Rapid infusion of these cold fluids can worsen or even induce hypothermia in these patients. Warming of intravenous fluids at accident sites has traditionally been difficult due to a lack of suitable portable fluid warmers that a...

  14. Warm and touching tears: tearful individuals are perceived as warmer because we assume they feel moved and touched.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zickfeld, Janis H; Schubert, Thomas W

    2018-01-31

    Recent work investigated the inter-individual functions of emotional tears in depth. In one study (Van de Ven, N., Meijs, M. H. J., & Vingerhoets, A. (2017). What emotional tears convey: Tearful individuals are seen as warmer, but also as less competent. British Journal of Social Psychology, 56(1), 146-160. Https://doi.org/10.1111/bjso.12162) tearful individuals were rated as warmer, and participants expressed more intentions to approach and help such individuals. Simultaneously, tearful individuals were rated as less competent, and participants expressed less intention to work with the depicted targets. While tearful individuals were perceived as sadder, perceived sadness mediated only the effect on competence, but not on warmth. We argue that tearful individuals might be perceived as warm because they are perceived as feeling moved and touched. We ran a pre-registered extended replication of Van de Ven et al. Results replicate the warmth and helping findings, but not the competence and work effects. The increase in warmth ratings was completely mediated by perceiving feeling moved and touched. Possible functions of feeling moved and touched with regard to emotional tears are discussed.

  15. Nuclear fusion and its large potential for the future world energy supply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ongena Jef

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available An overview of the energy problem in the world is presented. The colossal task of ‘decarbonizing’ the current energy system, with ~85% of the primary energy produced from fossil sources is discussed. There are at the moment only two options that can contribute to a solution: renewable energy (sun, wind, hydro, etc. or nuclear fission. Their contributions, ~2% for sun and wind, ~6% for hydro and ~5% for fission, will need to be enormously increased in a relatively short time, to meet the targets set by policy makers. The possible role and large potential for fusion to contribute to a solution in the future as a safe, nearly inexhaustible and environmentally compatible energy source is discussed. The principles of magnetic and inertial confinement are outlined, and the two main options for magnetic confinement, tokamak and stellarator, are explained. The status of magnetic fusion is summarized and the next steps in fusion research, ITER and DEMO, briefly presented.

  16. World-Class Leaders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, Margery

    2012-01-01

    Future leaders' creativity and problem-solving skills have been honed in leadership courses, but that doesn't mean they are ready to use those skills to further a company's place in the world. With emerging markets in Asia, South America, and other areas of the world, a workforce needs to have an understanding of and interest in cultures beyond…

  17. Future Structure of the Life-World. As an inevitable consequence of the «peer-to-peer»

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mototaka Mori

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article intends to draw theoretically a future structure of the life-world. The state interventionism in the late capitalism has been often argued by the critical theoreticians like Jurgen Habermas since the last half of the twentieth century. It was particularly the main problem how possible the life-world was in such the technologically systematized society. However, the highly technological development of telecommunication has changed our everyday life very rapidly and totally. If we know such the rapid change of coevolution between human life and technology, we have to fundamentally reconsider on the theory of life-world. Therefore, in this article I will firstly focus on the classical theory of mundane social world which Alfred Schutz presented in the early 1930s. Of course, his project of socio-phenomenology has been one of the most brilliant und important works still now. However, his theory also will have to be renewed. If we know particularly the «peer-to-peer» constellation of the computer network by the distributed anonymous persons, the classical model of life-world must be versioned up to a next theoretical level. Secondly, considering on the virtual currency like the Bitcoin, this article will show you a hypothetical aspect of transformation of the life-world. The mechanism of trust, which has been often understood as one of the most important key concepts for the community or the society, may be replaced with the computer technology of cryptographic proof. Such a theoretical examination will finally lead to an important opened problem. We will have to inquire whether such the social order will be spontaneous, or whether such the ordering will have to be decided only by the speed of computer’s central processing unit.

  18. Will seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) quality change in a warmer ocean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbosa, Vera; Maulvault, Ana Luísa; Alves, Ricardo N; Anacleto, Patrícia; Pousão-Ferreira, Pedro; Carvalho, Maria Luísa; Nunes, Maria Leonor; Rosa, Rui; Marques, António

    2017-07-01

    The impacts of climate change on seafood quality, safety and human health are still unknown. The present study investigated the effect of warming on fatty acids and elements content in two tissues (muscle and liver) of the relevant commercial seabass species (Dicentrarchus labrax). After exposing fish to increased seawater temperature for a period of 60days, higher saturated fatty acid (SFA) levels were observed in fish muscle (2.16% increase); whereas lower SFA levels were observed in fish liver (5.42% decrease). On the other hand, monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) contents decreased in both muscle (1.77% and 0.39%, respectively) and liver (10.54% and 8.11%, respectively) of fish subjected to warmer conditions. Additionally, warming promoted changes in fish elemental profiles, leading to significantly higher levels of Cl in the muscle and lower levels of Rb in the liver. Overall, data showed that fatty acids and elemental contents were affected by temperature, though representing small implications to human health. Moreover, this preliminary study highlights the importance of conducting further seafood risk-benefit assessments under climate change contexts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Aerobic vs. anaerobic scope: sibling species of fish indicate that temperature dependence of hypoxia tolerance can predict future survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Christina; Munday, Philip L; Nilsson, Göran E

    2014-03-01

    The temperature dependence of aerobic scope has been suggested to be a major determinant of how marine animals will cope with future rises in environmental temperature. Here, we present data suggesting that in some animals, the temperature dependence of anaerobic scope (i.e., the capacity for surviving severe hypoxia) may determine present-day latitudinal distributions and potential for persistence in a warmer future. As a model for investigating the role of anaerobic scope, we studied two sibling species of coral-dwelling gobies, Gobiodon histrio, and G. erythrospilus, with different latitudinal distributions, but which overlap in equal abundance at Lizard Island (14°40'S) on the Great Barrier Reef. These species did not differ in the temperature dependence of resting oxygen consumption or critical oxygen concentration (the lowest oxygen level where resting oxygen consumption can be maintained). In contrast, the more equatorial species (G. histrio) had a better capacity to endure anaerobic conditions at oxygen levels below the critical oxygen concentration at the high temperatures (32-33 °C) more likely to occur near the equator, or in a warmer future. These results suggest that anaerobic scope, in addition to aerobic scope, could be important in determining the impacts of global warming on some marine animals. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. IBM PC enhances the world's future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Jozelle

    1988-01-01

    Although the purpose of this research is to illustrate the importance of computers to the public, particularly the IBM PC, present examinations will include computers developed before the IBM PC was brought into use. IBM, as well as other computing facilities, began serving the public years ago, and is continuing to find ways to enhance the existence of man. With new developments in supercomputers like the Cray-2, and the recent advances in artificial intelligence programming, the human race is gaining knowledge at a rapid pace. All have benefited from the development of computers in the world; not only have they brought new assets to life, but have made life more and more of a challenge everyday.

  1. Améry, Arendt, and the Future of the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne O'Byrne

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Of all the terms Jean Améry might have chosen to explain the deepest effects of torture, the one he selected was world. To be tortured was to lose trust in the world, to become incapable of feeling at home in the world. In July 1943, Améry was arrested by the Gestapo in Belgium and tortured by the SS at the former fortress of Breendonk. With the first blow from the torturers, he famously wrote, one loses trust in the world. With that blow, one can no longer be certain that “by reason of written or unwritten social contracts the other person will spare me—and more precisely stated, that he will respect my physical, and with it also my metaphysical, being.” In a vault inside the fortress, beyond the reach of anyone who might help—a wife, a mother, a brother, a friend—it turned out that all social contracts had been broken and torture was possible. His attackers had no respect for him, and no-one else could or would help.

  2. Report of the world association of medical editors: agenda for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-04-01

    During a 3-day meeting at Bellagio in January 2001, a group of 20 editors from 12 countries in 5 continents met to map out a strategy for the World Association of Medical Editors (WAME)'s continued development in the service of medical editors over the next several years. The group: 1) Developed a statement of principles on the standards of professionalism and responsibilities of editors (this statement will be posted on the Web site after electronic consultation with and comment by WAME editors); 2) Agreed to assess the extent to which these principles are reflected in practice and to explore barriers to their adoption, using data from a survey and focus groups; 3) Developed and outlined an on-line program for distance learning, targeted at new editors; 4) Planned for formal evaluation of the educational outreach program; and 5) Agreed to support regional initiatives to strengthen local editorial capacity. Underpinning all past and proposed future activities is the WAME Web site. The ambitious plans outlined above will require extensive development of the site, plans for which were made at the Bellagio meeting.

  3. Still Partners and Still Dissident After All These Years? Wallerstein, World Revolutions and the World-Systems Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William G. Martin

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This essay owes its origins to the provocative title of a recent article by Immanuel Wallerstein: “The Rise and Future Demise of World-systems Analysis” (1998a. “Demise”? What might this mean? The title evokes, of course, Wallerstein’s pathbreaking 1974 essay that spoke of “The Rise and Future Demise of the World Capitalist System.” Twenty-?ve years later, Wallerstein is bold enough to speak of the demise of the perspective, a perspective that now encompasses a global group of scholars. For world-systems scholarship has, since 1974, thrived in book series, journals, universities and professional organizations—creating in the process a world-systems diaspora scattered around the planet.

  4. Superhabitable worlds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, René; Armstrong, John

    2014-01-01

    To be habitable, a world (planet or moon) does not need to be located in the stellar habitable zone (HZ), and worlds in the HZ are not necessarily habitable. Here, we illustrate how tidal heating can render terrestrial or icy worlds habitable beyond the stellar HZ. Scientists have developed a language that neglects the possible existence of worlds that offer more benign environments to life than Earth does. We call these objects "superhabitable" and discuss in which contexts this term could be used, that is to say, which worlds tend to be more habitable than Earth. In an appendix, we show why the principle of mediocracy cannot be used to logically explain why Earth should be a particularly habitable planet or why other inhabited worlds should be Earth-like. Superhabitable worlds must be considered for future follow-up observations of signs of extraterrestrial life. Considering a range of physical effects, we conclude that they will tend to be slightly older and more massive than Earth and that their host stars will likely be K dwarfs. This makes Alpha Centauri B, which is a member of the closest stellar system to the Sun and is supposed to host an Earth-mass planet, an ideal target for searches for a superhabitable world.

  5. Three worlds of instructional design: State of the art and future directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merriënboer, J.J.G. van; Kirschner, P.A.

    Three worlds of ID are distinguished. The World of Knowledge stresses the analysis of learning outcomes in knowledge structures and the selection of instructional strategies for particular outcomes; the World of Learning focuses on particular learning processes and the synthesis of strategies that

  6. World Energy Conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, G.; Schilling, H.D.

    1979-01-01

    After making some general remarks about goals, tasks, and works of the World Energy Conference the topics and the frame of the 11th World Energy Conference which will take place in Munich from 8th to 12th September 1980 are outlined. This conference is held under the general topic 'energy for our world' and deals with the reciprocal relation between energy supply, environment, and society. The main part of the publication presented here is the German version of the most important sections of the investigation 'World Energy-Looking Ahead to 2020' by the Conservation Commission (CC) of the World Energy Conference. Added to this is the German original brief version of a report by the Mining-Research Company (Bergbau-Forschung GmbH) to the CC which deals with the estimation of the world's coal resources and their future availability. This report was presented on the 10th World Energy Conference in Istanbul together with the corresponding reports concerning the other energy sources. Finally, an introduction to the technical programme for the 11th World Energy Conference 1980 is given. (UA) [de

  7. The World of Wars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harste, Gorm

    2014-01-01

    The world of the future will not be one without wars. The many hopes we have about a future peace governed by a more or less confederal state will not make wars obsolete. Regular wars and irregular wars will continue and probably about different subjects than we are used to. The article proposes...... that the form of war will be more about temporalities, i.e. fast interchanges or, rather, more risky protracted wars of attrition and exhaustion and less about tactical well defined territories. The West can neither dominate such wars nor establish one world that is ruled or even governed. The risk is that we...

  8. Future of color

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladson, Jack A.; Turner, Laraine B.; Green-Armytage, Paul; Hunt, Robert W. G.

    2002-06-01

    We live in a world in which styles and technologies are nearly the same from place to place, but change daily. This changing global culture is unprecedented, and reinforced by emerging new technologies that affect us all. The Future of Color, examines new technologies, how they will affect the selection and promulgation of color in the near future, and their impact upon us. We examine this topic from many perspectives - technological, business and commercial. Most importantly, as we understand how our world is emerging, we can position ourselves strategically for tomorrow.

  9. The Future of World Englishes in Language Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, James Dean

    2014-01-01

    This article begins by defining "world Englishes" (WEs) and the related paradigm of inner-, outer-, and expanding-circle English(es). The discussion then turns to the central concerns of the WEs and language testing (LT) communities with regard to how English tests can best be constructed to include various WEs by discussing (a) what…

  10. 36 CFR 73.7 - World Heritage nomination process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... inscribed as a World Heritage Site. (j) Who is notified when a U.S. property has been nominated to the World... INTERIOR WORLD HERITAGE CONVENTION § 73.7 World Heritage nomination process. (a) What is the U.S. World... Future U.S. World Heritage nominations) and requests that public and private sources recommend properties...

  11. World nuclear energy paths

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Connolly, T.J.; Hansen, U.; Jaek, W.; Beckurts, K.H.

    1979-01-01

    In examing the world nuclear energy paths, the following assumptions were adopted: the world economy will grow somewhat more slowly than in the past, leading to reductions in electricity demand growth rates; national and international political impediments to the deployment of nuclear power will gradually disappear over the next few years; further development of nuclear power will proceed steadily, without serious interruption but with realistic lead times for the introduction of advanced technologies. Given these assumptions, this paper attempts a study of possible world nuclear energy developments, disaggregated on a regional and national basis. The scenario technique was used and a few alternative fuel-cycle scenarios were developed. Each is an internally consistent model of technically and economically feasible paths to the further development of nuclear power in an aggregate of individual countries and regions of the world. The main purpose of this modeling exercise was to gain some insight into the probable international locations of reactors and other nuclear facilities, the future requirements for uranium and for fuel-cycle services, and the problems of spent-fuel storage and waste management. The study also presents an assessment of the role that nuclear power might actually play in meeting future world energy demand

  12. Past future. Coal dependence of the World's society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hemery, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    From the end of the eighteenth century, coal and steam-engines system became the first energetic base of the successive waves of the world industrialization. In this paper, the author investigates the factor of this prominent part and describes the phases of the coal mining era. He examines its social correlations and its heavy impact upon the Earth's biosphere. Today, coal remains the second energy in the world but the first cause of the present climatic crisis

  13. Past and future trends in cancer and biomedical research: a comparison between Egypt and the World using PubMed-indexed publications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeeneldin Ahmed Abdelmabood

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background PubMed is a free web literature search service that contains almost 21 millions of abstracts and publications with almost 5 million user queries daily. The purposes of the study were to compare trends in PubMed-indexed cancer and biomedical publications from Egypt to that of the world and to predict future publication volumes. Methods The PubMed was searched for the biomedical publications between 1991 and 2010 (publications dates. Affiliation was then limited to Egypt. Further limitation was applied to cancer, human and animal publications. Poisson regression model was used for prediction of future number of publications between 2011 and 2020. Results Cancer publications contributed 23% to biomedical publications both for Egypt and the world. Egyptian biomedical and cancer publications contributed about 0.13% to their world counterparts. This contribution was more than doubled over the study period. Egyptian and world’s publications increased from year to year with rapid rise starting the year 2003. Egyptian as well as world’s human cancer publications showed the highest increases. Egyptian publications had some peculiarities; they showed some drop at the years 1994 and 2002 and apart from the decline in the animal: human ratio with time, all Egyptian publications in the period 1991-2000 were significantly more than those in 2001-2010 (P  Conclusions The Egyptian contribution to world’s biomedical and cancer publications needs significant improvements through research strategic planning, setting national research priorities, adequate funding and researchers’ training.

  14. Raman Life Detection Instrument Development for Icy Worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Seamus; Allen, A'Lester; Gutierrez, Daniel; Quinn, Richard C.; Chen, Bin; Koehne, Jessica E.

    2017-01-01

    The objective of this project is to develop a compact, high sensitivity Raman sensor for detection of life signatures in a flow cell configuration to enable bio-exploration and life detection during future mission to our Solar Systems Icy Worlds. The specific project objectives are the following: 1) Develop a Raman spectroscopy liquid analysis sensor for biosignatures; 2) Demonstrate applicability towards a future Enceladus or other Icy Worlds missions; 3) Establish key parameters for integration with the ARC Sample Processor for Life on Icy Worlds (SPLIce); 4) Position ARC for a successful response to upcoming Enceladus or other Icy World mission instrument opportunities.

  15. City transformations in a 1.5 °C warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solecki, William; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Dhakal, Shobhakar; Roberts, Debra; Barau, Aliyu Salisu; Schultz, Seth; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana

    2018-03-01

    Meeting the ambitions of the Paris Agreement will require rapid and massive decarbonization of cities, as well as adaptation. Capacity and requirement differs across cities, with challenges and opportunities for transformational action in both the Global North and South.

  16. Seizing the Future: How Ohio's Career-Technical Education Programs Fuse Academic Rigor and Real-World Experiences to Prepare Students for College and Careers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarino, Heidi; Yoder, Shaun

    2015-01-01

    "Seizing the Future: How Ohio's Career and Technical Education Programs Fuse Academic Rigor and Real-World Experiences to Prepare Students for College and Work," demonstrates Ohio's progress in developing strong policies for career and technical education (CTE) programs to promote rigor, including college- and career-ready graduation…

  17. Physics and technology for future presidents an introduction to the essential physics every world leader needs to know

    CERN Document Server

    Muller, Richard A

    2010-01-01

    Physics and Technology for Future Presidents contains the essential physics that students need in order to understand today's core science and technology issues, and to become the next generation of world leaders. From the physics of energy to climate change, and from spy technology to quantum computers, this is the only textbook to focus on the modern physics affecting the decisions of political leaders and CEOs and, consequently, the lives of every citizen. How practical are alternative energy sources? Can satellites really read license plates from space? What is the quantum physics behind i

  18. Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    Short-lived precipitation extremes are often responsible for hazards in urban and rural environments with economic and environmental consequences. The precipitation intensity is expected to increase about 7% per degree of warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, the observations often show a much stronger increase in the sub-daily values. In particular, the behavior of the hourly summer precipitation from radar observations with the dew point temperature (the Pi-Td relation) for the Netherlands suggests that for moderate to warm days the intensification of the precipitation can be even higher than 21% per degree of warming, that is 3 times higher than the expected CC relation. The rate of change depends on the initial precipitation intensity, as low percentiles increase with a rate below CC, the medium percentiles with 2CC and the moderate-high and high percentiles with 3CC. This non-linear statistical Pi-Td relation is suggested to be used as a delta-transformation to project how a historic extreme precipitation event would intensify under future, warmer conditions. Here, the Pi-Td relation is applied over a selected historic extreme precipitation event to 'up-scale' its intensity to warmer conditions. Additionally, the selected historic event is simulated in the high-resolution, convective-permitting weather model Harmonie. The initial and boundary conditions are alternated to represent future conditions. The comparison between the statistical and the numerical method of projecting the historic event to future conditions showed comparable intensity changes, which depending on the initial percentile intensity, range from below CC to a 3CC rate of change per degree of warming. The model tends to overestimate the future intensities for the low- and the very high percentiles and the clouds are somewhat displaced, due to small wind and convection changes. The total spatial cloud coverage in the model remains, as also in the statistical

  19. Possible limitations to SSPS use due to distribution of world population and world energy consumption centers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Claverie, M.J.; Dupas, A.P.

    1980-09-01

    Satellite solar power stations, as envisioned now, would be very large energy systems from the point of view of power output (about 5 GW) and of land requirements (more than 400 sq km for a rectenna and the associated exclusion area). These size constraints could lead to limitations in the use of SSPS in significant parts of the world, due to three main incompatibilities: too high population density, insufficient density of electrical demand, and obligation for a single power station to provide less than about 20% of the total electrical demand in a given geographical zone to assure reliability. The extent of these three possible limitations was assessed, using a future world energy model developed previously. The rationale behind this model is to divide the world into 10 deg latitude by 10 deg longitude zones, in which future electrical demands (in 2000 and 2020/2025) are computed according to energetical previsions of the Case Western Reserve University (CWRU) and of the World Energy Conference (WEC). The results are world wide maps of electrical demand densities in 2000 and 2020/2025.

  20. Pastoral suitability driven by future climate change along the Apennines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilla Dibari

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This work aims at evaluating the impacts of climate change on pastoral resources located along the Apennines chain. To this end, random forest machine learning model was first calibrated for the present period and then applied to future conditions, as projected by HadCM3 general circulation model, in order to simulate possible spatial variation/shift of pastoral areas in two time slices (centred on 2050 and 2080 under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Pre-existent spatial database, namely Corine land cover map and WorldClim, were integrated and harmonised in a GIS environment in order to extract climate variables (mean seasonal precipitation, mean maximum temperature of the warmest month and minimum temperature of the coldest month and response variables (presence/absence of pastures to be used as model predictors. Random forest model resulted robust and coherent to simulate pastureland suitability under current climatology (classification accuracy error=19%. Accordingly, results indicated that increases in temperatures coupled with decreases in precipitation, as simulated by HadCM3 in the future, would have impacts of great concern on potential pasture distribution. In the specific, an overall decline of pasturelands suitability is predicted by the middle of the century in both A2 (–46% and B2 (–41% along the entire chain. However, despite alarming reductions in pastures suitability along the northern (–69% and –71% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively and central Apennines (–90% under both scenarios by the end of the century, expansions are predicted along the southern areas of the chain (+96% and +105% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. This may be probably due to expansions in pastures dominated by xeric and thermophiles species, which will likely benefit from warmer and drier future conditions predicted in the southern zone of the chain by the HadCM3. Hence, the expected climate, coupled with an increasing abandonment of the

  1. FORMATION OF THE NEW WORLD VIEW, NEW PERSON, NEW SOCIETY OF THE FUTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina A. Voronkova

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To substantiate the anthropological approaches to the definition of the noosphere and cosmic consciousness and the world, a new consciousness, a new man, a new society of the future, by which humankind can go to a new state of mutual responsibility. Society should be based on a spiritual basis, a person must develop in harmony with the universe, so the philosophers need to change the philosophy of survival of the globalized world in the development of philosophy and spirituality, which is a new matrix of the discourse of development and outlook of the universe. The meaning of the individual in society - to be useful to society and to the person, to be a master, to live in harmony with people and nature. Methodology. Study is based on the methd of hermeneutical analysis.The scientific novelty of this work is shown in the results, which indicate the formation of the noosphere worldview that seeks to realize the idea of V.Vernadsky, which manifests itself in the context of a harmonious relationship of scientific knowledge, philosophy, and religion, which produce a variety of forms of dialogue between people of different cultural backgrounds, nationalities, religions, generations and gender. Conclusions. The new philosophy of development in the twenty-first century, aimed at forming a new society, a new consciousness, a new person should be directed to: a the confrontation process of self-destruction of the human person and the destructive tendencies of the environment, and b the creation of conditions for the harmonization of public self-regulatory systems: organization, person, environment, society, and c the creation of conditions for the realization of the creative potential of every person (regardless of its level of consciousness to identify the direction of development of the creative work, and d the formation and implementation of creative management at all levels.

  2. Telehealth in the developing world: current status and future prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott RE

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Richard E Scott,1,2 Maurice Mars11Department of TeleHealth, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; 2NT Consulting - Global e-Health Inc., Calgary, AB, CanadaAbstract: In a setting of constant change and confusing terminology, telehealth continues to gain ground in both developed and developing countries within the overarching milieu of e-health. Evidence shows telehealth has been used in essentially all countries of the world, but is embedded in few. Uses and needs of telehealth vary between the developed and developing world; the latter struggles with both communicable diseases and noncommunicable diseases, and with very few resources. Common clinical applications include teleconsultation, telecardiology (transmission of ECGs, teleradiology, and teledermatology. Many telehealth projects exist throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia, and Africa, but there is little published evidence and only isolated examples of sustained programs, although several sustained humanitarian networks exist. Application of mobile solutions (m-health is on the rise in many developing countries. Telehealth is still not integrated into existing health care systems globally. Reasons vary: lack of proven large-scale operations, poor evidence base, inadequate implementation, lack of attention to the “soft side” of implementation (readiness, change management, and many others. For the developing world, reasons can be more pragmatic, including limited resources, unreliable power, poor connectivity, and high cost for the poverty stricken – those most in need. Telehealth is poised to improve health and health care in the developing world, driven by both altruistic and profit motives. But to have the desired effect, telehealth must address very specific and evidence-based health “needs” of each facility, region, or country; the shortage of health workers and specialist services; and the required skills upgrading and training

  3. World Association for the Advancement of Veterinary Parasitology (WAAVP): the 50th anniversary in 2013--history, achievements, and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckert, J

    2013-08-01

    In 2013 the World Association for the Advancement of Veterinary Parasitology (WAAVP) can celebrate its 50th anniversary. At this occasion in this article selected historical data are updated, and the achievements and future perspectives of the WAAVP are discussed. Although the WAAVP is a small association with only a few hundred members, it has been able to develop remarkable activities. Between 1963 and 2011 the WAAVP has organized 23 international scientific congresses, and the 24th conference will take place in Perth, Western Australia, in 2013. These conferences have achieved a high degree of international recognition as indicated by relatively large numbers of participants (up to ~800). Furthermore, the WAAVP has promoted veterinary parasitology in various ways, such as publishing international guidelines (efficacy evaluation of antiparasitic drugs, parasitological methods, standardized nomenclature of animal parasitic diseases "SNOAPAD"), stimulating international discussions on teaching and continued education ("colleges of veterinary parasitology") and by supporting the high quality journal "Veterinary Parasitology" which is the official organ of the WAAVP. In retrospect, the development of the WAAVP can be classified as very successful. New challenges associated with global changes (growth of the world population, urbanization, climate change, new developments in animal and plant production, etc.) will require new efforts in research in various fields, including veterinary parasitology. Future activities of WAAVP may include inter alia: (a) support of international parasitological networks; (b) stimulation of coordinated research aimed at the solution of defined problems; (c) increasing the exposure of WAAVP to parasitology from hitherto neglected regions of the world; (d) strengthening of official links to international organizations (FAO, WHO, etc.); (e) continuation of guideline preparation; and (d) preparation and international distribution of high

  4. Comparative seed germination traits in alpine and subalpine grasslands: higher elevations are associated with warmer germination temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Pascual, E; Jiménez-Alfaro, B; Bueno, Á

    2017-01-01

    Seed germination traits in alpine grasslands are poorly understood, despite the sensitivity of these communities to climate change. We hypothesise that germination traits predict species occurrence along the alpine-subalpine elevation gradient. Phylogenetic comparative analyses were performed using fresh seeds of 22 species from alpine and subalpine grasslands (1600-2400 m) of the Cantabrian Mountains, Spain (43° N, 5° W). Laboratory experiments were conducted to characterise germinability, optimum germination temperature and effect of cold and warm stratification on dormancy breaking. Variability in these traits was reduced by phylogenetic principal component analysis (phyl.PCA). Phylogenetic generalised least squares regression (PGLS) was used to fit a model in which species average elevation was predicted from their position on the PCA axes. Most subalpine species germinated in snow-like conditions, whereas most alpine species needed accumulation of warm temperatures. Phylogenetic signal was low. PCA1 ordered species according to overall germinability, whilst PCA2 ordered them according to preference for warm or cold germination. PCA2 significantly predicted species occurrence in the alpine-subalpine gradient, as higher elevation species tended to have warmer germination preferences. Our results show that germination traits in high-mountain grasslands are closely linked to the alpine-subalpine gradient. Alpine species, especially those from stripped and wind-edge communities, prefer warmer germination niches, suggesting that summer emergence prevents frost damage during seedling establishment. In contrast, alpine snowfield and subalpine grassland plants have cold germination niches, indicating that winter emergence may occur under snow to avoid drought stress. © 2016 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  5. Engaged World-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robertson, Maria Louise Bønnelykke; Rubow, Cecilie

    2013-01-01

    Drawing on fieldwork in Kiribati and the Cook Islands, this chapter shows how atoll islands and tropical lagoons, considered highly vulnerable to present and future sea level rise, are extraordinary malleable socio-natural worlds. Revolving around sacred islands submerged by sea water, ancient fi...

  6. The present and future place of nuclear power in the world and its role in relation to environmental risks and energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blix, H.

    1987-03-01

    This speech was delivered at a Seminar on Managing Environmental Risks, 1987. It states and enlarges on the three following propositions: First, that the world will need more energy - not least electric energy - energy savings and modified lifestyles will not be enough to compensate for new needs; Second, that our choice of energy mixes is one of the important factors deciding what future environmental risk and damage we shall live with; Third, that nuclear power offers us one of the most environmentally benign sources of energy generation. The paper points to coal and nuclear energy as the two principal realistic options for future large-scale production of electricity in the world. Questions regarding nuclear safety are discussed in particular the accident at Chernobyl. As regards the use of coal and gas it is concluded that it is imperative to tighten the emission restrictions for environmental reasons. It is also stressed that the use of nuclear power should not be examined in isolation. The Agency's nuclear safety standards are mentioned since they are being reviewed to see if some of them should be updated in the light of lessons from Chernobyl. 2 refs

  7. World coal prices and future energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, J.

    1992-01-01

    The Clean Air Act Amendments will create some important changes in the US domestic steam coal market, including price increases for compliance coal by the year 2000 and price decreases for high-sulfur coal. In the international market, there is likely to be a continuing oversupply which will put a damper on price increases. The paper examines several forecasts for domestic and international coal prices and notes a range of predictions for future oil prices

  8. Future nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosbah, D.S.; Nasreddine, M.

    2006-01-01

    The book includes an introduction then it speaks about the options to secure sources of energy, nuclear power option, nuclear plants to generate energy including light-water reactors (LWR), heavy-water reactors (HWR), advanced gas-cooled reactors (AGR), fast breeder reactors (FBR), development in the manufacture of reactors, fuel, uranium in the world, current status of nuclear power generation, economics of nuclear power, nuclear power and the environment and nuclear power in the Arab world. A conclusion at the end of the book suggests the increasing demand for energy in the industrialized countries and in a number of countries that enjoy special and economic growth such as China and India pushes the world to search for different energy sources to insure the urgent need for current and anticipated demand in the near and long-term future in light of pessimistic and optimistic outlook for energy in the future. This means that states do a scientific and objective analysis of the currently available data for the springboard to future plans to secure the energy required to support economy and welfare insurance.

  9. Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.E.

    1994-12-31

    The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey, renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.

  10. The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area seagrasses: Managing this iconic Australian ecosystem resource for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles, Robert G.; Rasheed, Michael A.; McKenzie, Len J.; Grech, Alana; York, Paul H.; Sheaves, Marcus; McKenna, Skye; Bryant, Catherine

    2015-02-01

    The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA) includes one of the world's largest areas of seagrass (35,000 km2) encompassing approximately 20% of the world's species. Mapping and monitoring programs sponsored by the Australian and Queensland Governments and Queensland Port Authorities have tracked a worrying decrease in abundance and area since 2007. This decline has almost certainly been the result of a series of severe tropical storms and associated floods exacerbating existing human induced stressors. A complex variety of marine and terrestrial management actions and plans have been implemented to protect seagrass and other habitats in the GBRWHA. For seagrasses, these actions are inadequate. They provide an impression of effective protection of seagrasses; reduce the sense of urgency needed to trigger action; and waste the valuable and limited supply of "conservation capital". There is a management focus on ports, driven by public concerns about high profile development projects, which exaggerates the importance of these relatively concentrated impacts in comparison to the total range of threats and stressors. For effective management of seagrass at the scale of the GBRWHA, more emphasis needs to be placed on the connectivity between seagrass meadow health, watersheds, and all terrestrial urban and agricultural development associated with human populations. The cumulative impacts to seagrass from coastal and marine processes in the GBRWHA are not evenly distributed, with a mosaic of high and low vulnerability areas. This provides an opportunity to make choices for future coastal development plans that minimise stress on seagrass meadows.

  11. Local Power -- Global Connections: linking the world to a sustainable future through decentralized energy technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brent, Richard; Sweet, David

    2007-07-01

    Various international dynamics are converging to increase the attractiveness of decentralized energy as a complement to existing centralized energy infrastructures. Decentralized energy (DE) technologies, including onsite renewables, high efficiency cogeneration and industrial energy recycling, offer considerable benefits to those seeking working alternatives to emerging challenges in the energy sector. DE is ideally suited to provide clean affordable energy to areas where modern energy services are currently lacking. Having smaller generators close to where energy is required ensures a safe, reliable and secure energy supply when the energy is required. Furthermore, because DE is a much cleaner alternative than conventional central power plants and the energy provided comes at a much smaller price tag DE is an increasingly acceptable alternative both in the developed and developing world. DE is sure to play a key role in any plan to build a sustainable energy future. (auth)

  12. Warmer winters modulate life history and energy storage but do not affect sensitivity to a widespread pesticide in an aquatic insect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arambourou, Hélène; Stoks, Robby

    2015-10-01

    Despite the increased attention for the effects of pesticides under global warming no studies tested how winter warming affects subsequent sensitivity to pesticides. Winter warming is expected to cause delayed negative effects when it increases metabolic rates and thereby depletes energy reserves. Using a common-garden experiment, we investigated the combined effect of a 4 °C increase in winter temperature and subsequent exposure to chlorpyrifos in the aquatic larvae of replicated low- and high-latitude European populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. The warmer winter (8 °C) resulted in a higher winter survival and higher growth rates compared to the cold winter (4 °C) commonly experienced by European high-latitude populations. Low-latitude populations were better at coping with the warmer winter, indicating thermal adaptation to the local winter temperatures. Subsequent chlorpyrifos exposure at 20 °C induced strong negative effects on survival, growth rate, lipid content and acetylcholinesterase activity while phenoloxidase activity increased. These pesticide effects were not affected by winter warming. Our results suggest that for species where winter warming has positive effects on life history, no delayed effects on the sensitivity to subsequent pesticide exposure should be expected. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Climate change, future Arctic Sea ice, and the competitiveness of European Arctic offshore oil and gas production on world markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrick, Sebastian; Riemann-Campe, Kathrin; Hoog, Sven; Growitsch, Christian; Schwind, Hannah; Gerdes, Rüdiger; Rehdanz, Katrin

    2017-12-01

    A significant share of the world's undiscovered oil and natural gas resources are assumed to lie under the seabed of the Arctic Ocean. Up until now, the exploitation of the resources especially under the European Arctic has largely been prevented by the challenges posed by sea ice coverage, harsh weather conditions, darkness, remoteness of the fields, and lack of infrastructure. Gradual warming has, however, improved the accessibility of the Arctic Ocean. We show for the most resource-abundant European Arctic Seas whether and how a climate induced reduction in sea ice might impact future accessibility of offshore natural gas and crude oil resources. Based on this analysis we show for a number of illustrative but representative locations which technology options exist based on a cost-minimization assessment. We find that under current hydrocarbon prices, oil and gas from the European offshore Arctic is not competitive on world markets.

  14. Brave New Worlds? The Once and Future Information Ethics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ess, Charles

    2010-01-01

    in both Western and Eastern countries, and correlative shifts from the communication technologies of literacy and print to a “secondary orality.” These consequences in turn imply that current and future information ethics should focus on developing a global but pluralistic virtue ethics - one that may......I highlight several aspects of current and future developments of the internet, in order to draw from these in turn specific consequences of particular significance for the ongoing development and expansion of information ethics. These consequences include changing conceptions of self and privacy...

  15. Symposium report: the Waters Bioanalysis World Tour: the broadening impact and future of the DMPK laboratory--addressing large-molecule therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vooght-Johnson, Ryan

    2011-03-01

    An evening symposium was held at the Museu de Historia de Catalunya (Barcelona, Spain) as a precursor to the European Bioanalysis Forum meeting, as part of the Waters Corporation Bioanalysis World Tour. The symposium was chaired by Robert Plumb and Jing Lin (Waters Corporation, MA, USA) with a focus on the future of the DMPK laboratory and its role in addressing large-molecule therapeutics and biomarkers. Lieve Dillen (Johnson and Johnson, Belgium) spoke on ultra-sensitive peptide quantification, Richard Kay (Quotient Bioresearch, UK) discussed quantifying proteins and peptides in plasma, Ian Wilson (AstraZeneca, UK) covered metabolic biomarkers and Robert Plumb concluded the evening with a presentation on the future of MS in DMPK studies. Following the presentations, all the speakers took questions from the audience and continued lively discussion over a cocktails and canapés reception.

  16. Potential Costs of Acclimatization to a Warmer Climate: Growth of a Reef Coral with Heat Tolerant vs. Sensitive Symbiont Types

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

    2010-01-01

    One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Kepp...

  17. Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helge Walentowski

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs using information on species’ climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea, whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.

  18. The present and future burden of urinary bladder cancer in the world.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ploeg, M.; Aben, K.K.H.; Kiemeney, L.A.L.M.

    2009-01-01

    Urinary bladder cancer (UBC) is a common disease worldwide. At any point in time 2.7 million people have a history of UBC. The incidence of UBC varies over the world with highest rates in developed communities. But the burden of UBC will increase in less developed areas of the world. These changes

  19. World energy supply and demand and the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lantzke, U.

    1977-01-01

    The OECD's world energy outlook analyses projected trends in energy damnd and supply for the OECD area and other major global regions to 1985. It provides a brief discussion of trends after 1985. OECD energy consumption is projected to grow more slowly than in the past. Conservation effects will increase efficiency of energy use per unit of economic growth. All domestic energy supplies in the OECD are projected to expand faster than in the past. The relative share of non-fossil energy sources in total production will be almost doubled. Assuming moderate economic growth, existing energy policies and a constnat real price for oil, the outlook's reference case projects OECD oil import at 35 million barrels a day by 1985. This level of import demand, when combined with the import needs of other oil importing areas, could approach the limit of availability of world oil supplies and as a result cause severe disequilibrium in world energy markets. The outlook indicates such severe disruption can be avoided by action to improve the world energy supply and demand balance without impeding economic growth objectives. Strong measures will be required both to conserve energy and to develop new energy supplies. The biggest increment to the OECD's energy supply by 1985 is expected to come from nuclear power. This substantial nuclear contribution will be inevitable and irreplaceable. As a result urgent solutions to problems concerning safety, availability of fuel cycle services, the environment, cost escalation and construction delays will be required

  20. The World Needs a New Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prensky, Marc

    2014-01-01

    The author proposes that today's existing, world-wide curriculum--based on offering roughly the same math, language arts, science, and social studies to all--is not what is required for the future, and is hurting rather than helping the world's students. Math, language arts, science, and social studies, he argues, are really "proxies"…

  1. Climate Change: A Future of Less Water and More people - Strategies for a Water Constrained World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahai, D.

    2010-12-01

    Today, the fact that the Earth is warming is indisputable. The evidence of climate change is already all around us, with the occurence of ever more intense weather events, droughts, heat waves, floods and sea level rise. Predictions of greater calamities in the future without swift action must be taken seriously. However, while international summits have focused on means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, these are largely strategies of containment, not of cure. Even if emissions were to cease today, the current effects of climate change would remain with us for millenia. This is clear from the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The world must not only tackle the causes of global warming; it must adapt to the damage already done. This need is most acute where water supply is concerned. The world already faces daunting chalenges. According to United Nations' reports, even today 1.8 million children under 5 die from water related diseases every year; 900 million people lack access to safe drinking water; and 2.6 billion go without basic sanitation. In the developing world, 90% of sewage is discharged to water bodies without adequate treatment contributing to "dead zones". Population increases will make matters worse (an addition of around 3 billion people by 2050 is expected) and climate change will compound the crisis. It is forecast that, as the Earth warms, deserts will expand and droughts will intensify causing demographic shifts even as the world's population burgeons. We are already seeing different regions react to water shortages. Many countries are pursuing seawater desalination. However, seawater desalination has numerous drawbacks; it remains the most expensive of water treatment options and the most energy intensive. Some societies may have no choice but to turn to the sea; others should look to other alternatives first. Such frontrunners could include: (1) enhanced conservation, utilizing public education programs, price

  2. Preparing Indico for the Future and the World

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    The presentation will focus on showing what we expect to be Indico's evolution over the next couple of years as the tool of choice for collaboration in HEP, not only feature-wise, but also in terms of technology and service. It will demonstrate how Indico went from a niche conference organization application to being CERN's own event organization tool and later to a collaboration platform that is used in over 100 other institutions world wide, and how we intend to bring it to a whole new level - that of a global service available to the scientific community as a whole.

  3. Teaching about Women in World History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocco, Margaret Smith

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the subject of teaching about women in world history in K-12 schools and in programs of social studies teacher education. It includes a review of the place of gender in teaching about world history to current and future teachers at Teachers College, Columbia University. This informal research serves as the platform for a set…

  4. (Some) Computer Futures: Mainframes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Earl C.

    Possible futures for the world of mainframe computers can be forecast through studies identifying forces of change and their impact on current trends. Some new prospects for the future have been generated by advances in information technology; for example, recent United States successes in applied artificial intelligence (AI) have created new…

  5. When Virtual Worlds Expand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bainbridge, William Sims

    The future of a virtual world depends on whether it can grow in subjective size, cultural content, and numbers of human participants. In one form of growth, exemplified by Second Life, the scope of a world increases gradually as new sponsors pay for new territory and inhabitants create content. A very different form of growth is sudden expansion, as when World of Warcraft (WoW) added entire new continents in its Burning Crusade and Lich King expansions (Lummis and Kern 2006, 2008; Corneliussen and Rettberg 2008; Sims et al. 2008). Well-established gamelike worlds have often undergone many expansions. Both the pioneer science fiction game Anarchy Online, which was launched in 2001, and Star Wars Galaxies dating from 2003, have had three, and EVE Online also from 2003 has had nine, although smaller ones. This chapter reports research on WoW's 2008 Lich King expansion, using both quantitative and qualitative methods, in order to develop theoretical ideas of the implications of expansion for virtual worlds.

  6. World nuclear performance report 2016. A new study by World Nuclear Association

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cobb, Jonathan [World Nuclear Association, London (United Kingdom)

    2016-08-15

    A larger number of nuclear power units are under construction than at any other time in the last 25 years, and with another ten new reactors coming online 2015 demonstrated improving new build performance all round. The existing global fleet, totally 439 by year-end, generated roughly 10 % of the world's electricity, making up around one-third of the world's low-carbon electricity supply. Nevertheless, there are challenges ahead for the global nuclear industry. The World Nuclear Association's vision for the future global electricity system consists of a diverse mix of low-carbon technologies - where renewables, nuclear and a fossil fuels work together in harmony to ensure a reliable, affordable and clean energy supply.

  7. World nuclear performance report 2016. A new study by World Nuclear Association

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cobb, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    A larger number of nuclear power units are under construction than at any other time in the last 25 years, and with another ten new reactors coming online 2015 demonstrated improving new build performance all round. The existing global fleet, totally 439 by year-end, generated roughly 10 % of the world's electricity, making up around one-third of the world's low-carbon electricity supply. Nevertheless, there are challenges ahead for the global nuclear industry. The World Nuclear Association's vision for the future global electricity system consists of a diverse mix of low-carbon technologies - where renewables, nuclear and a fossil fuels work together in harmony to ensure a reliable, affordable and clean energy supply.

  8. Characteristics and Future Changes of Great Mississippi Flood Events in a Global Coupled Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Wiel, K.; Kapnick, S. B.; Vecchi, G.; Smith, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    The Mississippi-Missouri river catchment houses millions of people and much of the U.S. national agricultural production. Severe flooding events can therefore have large negative societal, natural and economic impacts. GFDL FLOR, a global coupled climate model (atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice with integrated river routing module) is used to investigate the characteristics of great Mississippi floods with an average return period of 100 years. Model experiments under pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing were conducted for 3400 years, such that the most extreme flooding events were explicitly modeled and the land and/or atmospheric causes could be investigated. It is shown that melt of snow pack and frozen sub-surface water in the Missouri and Upper Mississippi basins prime the river system, subsequently sensitizing it to above average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee basins. The months preceding the greatest flooding events are above average wet, leading to moist sub-surface conditions. Anomalous melt depends on the availability of frozen water in the catchment, therefore anomalous amounts of sub-surface frozen water and anomalous large snow pack in winter (Nov-Feb) make the river system susceptible for these great flooding events in spring (Feb-Apr). An additional experiment of 1200 years under transient greenhouse gas forcing (RCP4.5, 5 members) was done to investigate potential future change in flood risk. Based on a peak-over-threshold method, it is found that the number of great flooding events decreases in a warmer future. This decrease coincides with decreasing occurrence of large melt events, but is despite increasing numbers of large precipitation events. Though the model results indicate a decreasing risk for the greatest flooding events, the predictability of events might decrease in a warmer future given the changing characters of melt and precipitation.

  9. Virtual Worlds for Virtual Organizing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoten, Diana; Lutters, Wayne

    The members and resources of a virtual organization are dispersed across time and space, yet they function as a coherent entity through the use of technologies, networks, and alliances. As virtual organizations proliferate and become increasingly important in society, many may exploit the technical architecture s of virtual worlds, which are the confluence of computer-mediated communication, telepresence, and virtual reality originally created for gaming. A brief socio-technical history describes their early origins and the waves of progress followed by stasis that brought us to the current period of renewed enthusiasm. Examination of contemporary examples demonstrates how three genres of virtual worlds have enabled new arenas for virtual organizing: developer-defined closed worlds, user-modifiable quasi-open worlds, and user-generated open worlds. Among expected future trends are an increase in collaboration born virtually rather than imported from existing organizations, a tension between high-fidelity recreations of the physical world and hyper-stylized imaginations of fantasy worlds, and the growth of specialized worlds optimized for particular sectors, companies, or cultures.

  10. Costs of climate impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, W O

    1980-03-01

    The surest prospect for future world climate patterns is that they will differ from present ones. What is uncertain is how much, and exactly in what way in different geographical regions. The anthropogenic CO/sub 2/ increase will probably exceed the unknown forcing functions of natural climate change within 30 to 60 years. It is not unlikely that by AD 2040 the world's climate, driven by the CO/sub 2/ increase, will enter a domain warmer than any within the past few million years. The costs of averting this climate change or of absorbing its impact are likely to be huge, even though today imponderable. Not least among these are intangible and unquantifiable costs associated with changes in human values and the quality of everyday life for future generations.

  11. Nitrous oxide emissions are enhanced in a warmer and wetter world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Production of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer is projected to exceed 200 Tg (1 Tg = 1012 g) N in 2018 – a 25% increase since 2008. The current trajectory of N fertilizer demand is exceeding some of the most aggressive forecasts. Globally, about 4% of the anthropogenic N in agricultural systems is ...

  12. The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; Mordecai, Erin A.

    2016-01-01

    Now-outdated estimates proposed that climate change should have increased the number of people at risk of malaria, yet malaria and several other infectious diseases have declined. Although some diseases have increased as the climate has warmed, evidence for widespread climate-driven disease expansion has not materialized, despite increased research attention. Biological responses to warming depend on the non-linear relationships between physiological performance and temperature, called the thermal response curve. This leads performance to rise and fall with temperature. Under climate change, host species and their associated parasites face extinction if they cannot either thermoregulate or adapt by shifting phenology or geographic range. Climate change might also affect disease transmission through increases or decreases in host susceptibility and infective stage (and vector) production, longevity, and pathology. Many other factors drive disease transmission, especially economics, and some change in time along with temperature, making it hard to distinguish whether temperature drives disease or just correlates with disease drivers. Although it is difficult to predict how climate change will affect infectious disease, an ecological approach can help meet the challenge.

  13. Future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1987-01-01

    International involvement in particle physics is what the International Committee for Future Accelerators (ICFA) is all about. At the latest Future Perspectives meeting at Brookhaven from 5-10 October (after a keynote speech by doyen Viktor Weisskopf, who regretted the emergence of 'a nationalistic trend'), ICFA reviewed progress and examined its commitments in the light of the evolving world particle physics scene. Particular aims were to review worldwide accelerator achievements and plans, to survey the work of the four panels, and to discuss ICFA's special role in future cooperation in accelerator construction and use, and in research and development work for both accelerators and for detectors

  14. A Global Perspective on Warmer Droughts as a Key Driver of Forest Disturbances and Tree Mortality (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, C. D.

    2013-12-01

    Recent global warming, in concert with episodic droughts, is causing elevated levels of both chronic and acute forest water stress across large regions. Such increases in water stress affect forest dynamics in multiple ways, including by amplifying the incidence and severity of many significant forest disturbances, particularly drought-induced tree mortality, wildfire, and outbreaks of damaging insects and diseases. Emerging global-scale patterns of drought-related forest die-off are presented, including a newly updated map overview of documented drought- and heat-induced tree mortality events from around the world, demonstrating the vulnerability of all major forest types to forest drought stress, even in typically wet environments. Comparative patterns of drought stress and associated forest disturbances are reviewed for several regions (southwestern Australia, Inner Asia, western North America, Mediterranean Basin), including interactions among climate and various disturbance processes. From the Southwest USA, research is presented that derives a tree-ring-based Forest Drought Stress Index (FDSI) for the most regionally-widespread conifer species (Pinus edulis, Pinus ponderosa, and Pseudotsuga menziesii), demonstrating recent escalation of FDSI to extreme levels relative to the past 1000 years, due to both drought and especially warming. This new work further highlights strong correlations between drought stress and amplified forest disturbances (fire, bark beetle outbreaks), and projects that by CE 2050 anticipated regional warming will cause mean FDSI values to reach historically unprecedented levels that may exceed thresholds for the survival of current tree species in large portions of their current range in the Southwest. Similar patterns of recent climate-amplified forest disturbance risk are apparent from a variety of relatively dry regions across this planet, and given climate projections for substantially warmer temperatures and greater drought stress

  15. Gas in the developing world--The role of the World Bank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malhotra, A.K.

    1991-01-01

    Over a third of the world's supply of energy today comes from the developing countries, a percentage that is likely to increase to almost 43% by the year 2000. One of the major areas of growth is expected to be in natural gas, which may supply over 20% of the total world's energy by 2000. Though there are major gas reserves in the developing world, they are not being exploited optimally. Growth of the gas industry requires resolution of a number of issues--financial, technical, and institutional. International trade in gas has shown recent signs of recovery, but over 70% of the gas produced in the developing countries is expected to be consumed domestically. The development and management of this emerging gas sector in the domestic economies of the developing countries will be one of the major challenges of the future. These issues are discussed in some detail. The role of the World Bank in financing natural gas projects is also discussed. The World Bank Group comprises the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Association (IBRD) and its affiliates, the International Development Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA)

  16. Effective Planning of the Future of the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sentsov, A.; Bolsunovskaya, Yu; Bolsunovskaya, L.

    2014-08-01

    The problems of the Arctic region have become the most important ones in the world. Political risks hinder the industrial development of the region. This paper addresses the problem of planning and modeling the future of this region. It presents the problems of developing a model of the future due to the ideologies and strategies of two main actors in the Arctic, the United States and the Russian Federation. The effects of a bipolar perception of the future of the region and of the whole world are shown. A model of the effective planning of the future of the Arctic region is proposed.

  17. World`s gas field and establishment of gas-specific database

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seong, W M [Hanyang Unversity, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-05-01

    As the natural gas demand of each country of the world including Korea continuously increases, it will be very important to diversify the characteristics of import areas and import gas as well as the import method for the stable and long-term supply. This study collects information such as reserves, the possibility of production, gas composition, etc. of gas fields that are spread all over the world with areas that can be developed or simply imported under the current conditions of Korea, and analyzed the projects that can be supplied through pipelines and information on non-conventional gas field that can be estimated in the future. 35 refs., 3 figs., 28 tabs.

  18. Wireless world in 2050 and beyond a window into the future!

    CERN Document Server

    Dixit, Sudhir

    2016-01-01

    This book gathers visionary ideas from leading academics and scientists to predict the future of wireless communication and enabling technologies in 2050 and beyond. The content combines a wealth of illustrations, tables, business models, and novel approaches to the evolution of wireless communication. The book also provides glimpses into the future of emerging technologies, end-to-end systems, and entrepreneurial and business models, broadening readers’ understanding of potential future advances in the field and their influence on society at large.

  19. The future of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romer, A.

    2001-01-01

    The article discusses not only the future of energy and resource consumption in various areas of the world, but also its development over the centuries since the industrial revolution. The present situation, with large discrepancies between the energy consumption of industrialised nations and the developing countries is examined. Social and environmental aspects are discussed and the sustainable use of the Earth's resources and the inconsistencies in this area is looked at. Rather than adopting a moralistic approach, the article appeals to man's powers of innovation and sense of responsibility in order to develop solutions to today's and future energy supply problems. The article is richly illustrated with diagrams and graphs on world energy and social statistics

  20. Monetary Union is the future of EAEU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyacheslav S. Kuznetsov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The president of Russian Federation V. Putin's Order from the 10th of March 2015 to the Government and Central Bank of Russia to work on the plan of creating Monetary Union of EAEU by the 1st of September cannot be ignored by scientific community's attention of Russia and other Eurasian countries. Strategic goal of this document is pretty clear - to create an island of currency stability in the surrounding of Jamaica's Monetary nonsystem and existing monopolar and assimetric world's dollar order, to minimize the dependency of Eurasian countries on US dollar, to hold its world expansion, to freeze the process of financing of USA imbalances by all countries, to turn back the process of dollarization of Eurasian countries and world's dollarization and relieve the world's community from future financial crises. The world's financial and economic crisis of 2008-2010 has clearly shown that US monetary, credit and banking system has become a permanent source of future turmoil of world's scale. It creates a necessity to activate the process of monetary integration of countries on the regional level and transformation of the modern Jamaica's world's dollar standard into the world's multipolar monetary standard. In this article the author analyses he stages of setting up the Eurasian regional monetary order from the creation of multilateral settlement system using common regional currency unit to the introduction of Eurasian currency system with Eurasian currency unit, which can be transformed in the future into the Eurasian Economic and monetary union with common regional currency (euras, which can restrict the world's monopoly position of the dollar.

  1. Teleconnections in a warmer climate: the pliocene perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shukla, Sonali P. [Columbia University, Deptartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States); Chandler, Mark A.; Sohl, Linda E.; Jonas, Jeff; Lerner, Jean [Columbia University, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY (United States); Rind, David [National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)

    2011-11-15

    Migrations toward altered sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the Indo-Pacific region are present in the recent observational record and in future global warming projections. These SSTs are in the form of ''permanent'' El Nino-like (herein termed ''El Padre'') and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-like patterns. The Early Pliocene Warm Period, which bears similarity to future warming projections, may have also exhibited these Indo-Pacific SST patterns, as suggested by regional terrestrial paleo-climatic data and general circulation model studies. The ability to corroborate this assessment with paleo-data reconstructions is an advantage of the warm Pliocene period that is not afforded by future warming scenarios. Thus, the Pliocene period provides us with a warm-climate perspective and test bed for understanding potential changes to future atmospheric interactions given these altered SST states. This study specifically assesses how atmospheric teleconnections from El Padre/IOD SST patterns are generated and propagate to create the regional climate signals of the Pliocene period, as these signals may be representative of future regional climatic changes as well. To do this, we construct a holistic diagnostic rubric that allows us to examine atmospheric teleconnections, both energetically and dynamically, as produced by a general circulation model. We incorporate KE', a diagnostic adapted from the eddy kinetic energy generation field, to assess the available energy transferred to these teleconnections. Using this methodology, we found that relative to our Modern Control experiments, weaker atmospheric teleconnections prevail under warm Pliocene conditions, although pathways of propagation still appear directed toward the southwestern United States from our tropical Pacific sector forcing. Propagation directly emanating from the Indian Ocean forcing sector appears to be largely blocked, although indirect teleconnective

  2. World wide biomass resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faaij, A.P.C.

    2012-01-01

    In a wide variety of scenarios, policy strategies, and studies that address the future world energy demand and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, biomass is considered to play a major role as renewable energy carrier. Over the past decades, the modern use of biomass has increased

  3. Solar energy in progress and future research trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sen, Zekai [Istanbul Technical Univ., Dept. of Meteorology, Istanbul (Turkey)

    2004-07-01

    Extensive fossil fuel consumption in almost all human activities led to some undesirable phenomena such as atmospheric and environmental pollutions, which have not been experienced before in known human history. Consequently, global warming, greenhouse affect, climate change, ozone layer depletion and acid rain terminologies started to appear in the literature frequently. Since 1970, it has been understood scientifically by experiments and researches that these phenomena are closely related to fossil fuel uses because they emit greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and methane (CH{sub 4}) which hinder the long wave terrestrial radiation to escape into space, and consequently, the earth troposphere becomes warmer. In order to avoid further impacts of these phenomena, the two concentrative alternatives are either to improve the fossil fuel quality with reductions in their harmful emissions into the atmosphere or more significantly to replace fossil fuel usage as much as possible with environmentally friendly, clean and renewable energy sources. Among these sources, solar energy comes at the top of the list due to its abundance, and more evenly distribution in nature than any other renewable energy types such as wind, geothermal, hydro, wave and tidal energies. It must be the main and common purpose of humanity to sustain environment for the betterment of future generations with sustainable energy developments. On the other hand, the known limits of fossil fuels compel the societies of the world in the long run to work jointly for their gradual replacement by renewable energy alternatives rather than the quality improvement of fossil sources. Solar radiation is an integral part of different renewable energy resources. It is the main and continuous input variable from practically inexhaustible sun. Solar energy is expected to play a very significant role in the future especially in developing countries, but it has also potential prospects for developed

  4. The World of WarsRisky systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harste, Gorm

      The world of the future will not be one without wars. The many hopes we have about a future peace governed by a more or less confederal state will not make wars obsolete. Regular wars and irregular wars will continue and probably on different subjects than we are used to. The paper proposes...... that the form of war will be more about temporalities, i.e. fast interchanges or, rather, more risky protracted wars of attrition and exhaustion and less on tactical well defined territories. The West can neither dominate such wars nor establish one world that is ruled or even governed. The risk is that we have....... The "extreme 20th century" will have another history and another impact. Its extremes will be more extreme and its temporal bindings easier to observe. The much celebrated revolutions in military affairs will not dominate future war systems. Unipolarity is fading away. Kantian convergences may appear....

  5. World oil prices and domestic implications : a Russian perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khartukov, E.M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presented an analysis of the impact of world oil prices on the future developments of Russia's oil sector and provided an international comparison of projected crude oil prices. The main factors that influence the price dynamics of the contemporary world oil market were described with reference to how these dynamics affect Russia's internal markets. World oil prices are determined by a mixture of politics and economics. The author suggested that Russian crude will not reach the desired parity with world oil prices. It was predicted that at the very best, by 2030, domestic crude oil sales will be 80 per cent of world-market proceeds. Russian refineries will enjoy cheaper feedstock. Regardless of future world price levels, the standstill in modernizing Russia's refining sector will further narrow the profit base, causing a massive run of Russian crude to more lucrative, external markets. It was emphasized that the survival of Russia's refining sector can only be guaranteed by radical upgrading of their outdated refineries. 4 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs

  6. What would happen to Superstorm Sandy under the influence of a substantially warmer Atlantic Ocean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Shi, J. J.; Tao, W. K.; Kim, K. M.

    2016-01-01

    Based on ensemble numerical simulations, we find that possible responses of Sandy-like superstorms under the influence of a substantially warmer Atlantic Ocean bifurcate into two groups. In the first group, storms are similar to present-day Sandy from genesis to extratropical transition, except they are much stronger, with peak Power Destructive Index (PDI) increased by 50-80%, heavy rain by 30-50%, and maximum storm size (MSS) approximately doubled. In the second group, storms amplify substantially over the interior of the Atlantic warm pool, with peak PDI increased by 100-160%, heavy rain by 70-180%, and MSS more than tripled compared to present-day Superstorm Sandy. These storms when exiting the warm pool, recurve northeastward out to sea, subsequently interact with the developing midlatitude storm by mutual counterclockwise rotation around each other and eventually amplify into a severe Northeastern coastal storm, making landfall over the extreme northeastern regions from Maine to Nova Scotia.

  7. World energy outlook 2007 -- China and India insights

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-11-07

    World leaders have pledged to act to change the energy future. Some new policies are in place. But the trends in energy demand, imports, coal use and greenhouse gas emissions to 2030 in this year's World Energy Outlook are even worse than projected in WEO 2006. China and India are the emerging giants of the world economy. Their unprecedented pace of economic development will require ever more energy, but it will transform living standards for billions. There can be no question of asking them selectively to curb growth so as to solve problems which are global. So how is the transition to be achieved to a more secure, lower-carbon energy system? WEO 2007 provides the answers. With extensive statistics, projections in three scenarios, analysis and advice, it shows China, India and the rest of the world why we need to co-operate to change the energy future and how to do it.

  8. World energy outlook 2007 -- China and India insights

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-11-07

    World leaders have pledged to act to change the energy future. Some new policies are in place. But the trends in energy demand, imports, coal use and greenhouse gas emissions to 2030 in this year's World Energy Outlook are even worse than projected in WEO 2006. China and India are the emerging giants of the world economy. Their unprecedented pace of economic development will require ever more energy, but it will transform living standards for billions. There can be no question of asking them selectively to curb growth so as to solve problems which are global. So how is the transition to be achieved to a more secure, lower-carbon energy system? WEO 2007 provides the answers. With extensive statistics, projections in three scenarios, analysis and advice, it shows China, India and the rest of the world why we need to co-operate to change the energy future and how to do it.

  9. Conference assesses world oil supply scene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the Offshore Northern Seas conference heard a number of long term outlooks in Stavanger, Norway, last week, all with the same conclusion: the oil and gas industry needs massive investment if it is to match future demand. Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Bruntland built her scenario on a doubling of world population every 40 years. Mrs. Bruntland emphasized the growing dependence of the world economy on Middle East developments. Two thirds of the world's oil reserves are in the Persian Gulf region, she said, but only 28% of production comes from there. As the rest of the world depletes its reserves, dependence on Persian Gulf oil will grow

  10. Subtropical Low Cloud Response to a Warmer Climate in an Superparameterized Climate Model: Part I. Regime Sorting and Physical Mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter N Blossey

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The subtropical low cloud response to a climate with SST uniformly warmed by 2 K is analyzed in the SP- CAM superparameterized climate model, in which each grid column is replaced by a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model (CRM. Intriguingly, SP-CAM shows substantial low cloud increases over the subtropical oceans in the warmer climate. The paper aims to understand the mechanism for these increases. The subtropical low cloud increase is analyzed by sorting grid-column months of the climate model into composite cloud regimes using percentile ranges of lower tropospheric stability (LTS. LTS is observed to be well correlated to subtropical low cloud amount and boundary layer vertical structure. The low cloud increase in SP-CAM is attributed to boundary-layer destabilization due to increased clear-sky radiative cooling in the warmer climate. This drives more shallow cumulus convection and a moister boundary layer, inducing cloud increases and further increasing the radiative cooling. The boundary layer depth does not change substantially, due to compensation between increased radiative cooling (which promotes more turbulent mixing and boundary-layer deepening and slight strengthening of the boundary-layer top inversion (which inhibits turbulent entrainment and promotes a shallower boundary layer. The widespread changes in low clouds do not appear to be driven by changes in mean subsidence.
    In a companion paper we use column-mode CRM simulations based on LTS-composite profiles to further study the low cloud response mechanisms and to explore the sensitivity of low cloud response to grid resolution in SP-CAM.

  11. Test programmes of HTTR for future generation HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunitomi, K.; Tachibana, Y.; Takeda, T.; Saikusa, A.; Shiozawa, S.

    1997-01-01

    Test programs of the High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) for future generation High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) have been established considering design and development status of HTGRs in Japan and the world. Test programs are divided into six categories, thermal hydraulics, fuel, safety, high temperature components, core physics and control-instrumentations. All programs are related to the technology of future generation HTGRs and will be submitted to a new Coordinated Research Program (CRP) so that all participants from the world in test programs of the HTTR can use measured data for their future generation.HTGRs. This paper describes test programs of the HTTR for the development of future generation HTGRs after explanation of a future generation HTGR in Japan. (author)

  12. Future Game Developers within a Virtual World: Learner Archetypes and Team Leader Attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franetovic, Marija

    2016-01-01

    This case study research sought to understand a subset of the next generation in reference to virtual world learning within a game development course. The students completed an ill-structured team project which was facilitated using authentic learning strategies within a virtual world over a period of seven weeks. Research findings emerged from…

  13. Big questions cloud Iraq's future role in world oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tippee, B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that Iraq raises questions for the world oil market beyond those frequently asked about when and under what circumstances it will resume exports. Two wars since 1981 have obscured encouraging results from a 20 year exploration program that were only beginning to come to light when Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990. Those results indicate the country might someday be able to produce much more than the 3.2 million b/d it was flowing before a United Nations embargo blocked exports. If exploratory potential is anywhere near what officials asserted in the late 1980s, and if Iraq eventually turns hospitable to international capital, the country could become a world class opportunity for oil companies as well as an exporter with productive capacity approaching that of Saudi Arabia. But political conditions can change quickly. Under a new, secular regime, Iraq might welcome non-Iraqi oil companies and capital as essential to economic recovery. It's a prospect that warrants a new industry look at what the country has revealed about its geology and exploration history

  14. EcoMobility. Changwon 2011 World Congress on Mobility for the Future of Sustainable Cities. A Series of Local Cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    More than 390 participants from around the world gathered in Changwon, Republic of Korea to share ideas on sustainable mobility and discuss creative solutions for the future. On the occasion of this global multi-stakeholder forum ICLEI published a series of local case stories to showcase leading visionaries for EcoMobility. These local case stories provide a deeper insight into the practices of sustainable mobility and serve as a source of inspiration for innovative transport solutions. Included are 14 outstanding examples from: Ahmedabad, India; Bologna, Italy; Bremen, Germany; Curitiba, Brazil; Freiburg, Germany; Gaevle, Sweden; Hangzhou, China; La Rochelle, France; London, UK; Lund, Sweden; Portland, USA; Seoul, Republic of Korea; Stockholm, Sweden; and Vancouver, Canada.

  15. Deploying Embodied AI into Virtual Worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, David J. H.

    The last two years have seen the start of commercial activity within virtual worlds. Unlike computer games where Non-Player-Character avatars are common, in most virtual worlds they are the exception — and until recently in Second Life they were non-existent. However there is real commercial scope for Als in these worlds — in roles from virtual sales staff and tutors to personal assistants. Deploying an embodied AI into a virtual world offers a unique opportunity to evaluate embodied Als, and to develop them within an environment where human and computer are on almost equal terms. This paper presents an architecture being used for the deployment of chatbot driven avatars within the Second Life virtual world, looks at the challenges of deploying an AI within such a virtual world, the possible implications for the Turing Test, and identifies research directions for the future.

  16. Greater temperature sensitivity of plant phenology at colder sites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prevey, Janet; Vellend, Mark; Ruger, Nadja

    2017-01-01

    Warmer temperatures are accelerating the phenology of organisms around the world. Temperature sensitivity of phenology might be greater in colder, higher latitude sites than in warmer regions, in part because small changes in temperature constitute greater relative changes in thermal balance...

  17. Serving two purposes: Plans for a MOOC and a World Campus course called Energy, the Environment, and Our Future (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bralower, T. J.; Alley, R. B.; Blumsack, S.; Keller, K.; Feineman, M. D.

    2013-12-01

    We are in the final stages of developing a Massive Open Online Course entitled Energy, the Environment, and Our Future. The course is a broad overview of the implications of the current energy options on Earth's climate and the choices for more sustainable energy sources in the future. The course is founded in concepts explored in the book and PBS series Earth: The Operators' Manual, but it includes more in-depth treatment of renewable energy as well as the ethical issues surrounding energy choices. One of the key aspects of the course is that it is being designed to be taught in two formats, the first, an eight week MOOC through Coursera in Fall semester 2013, and the second, a 16 week online course developed as part of the NSF Geo-STEP InTeGrate program and offered through the Penn State World Campus. The advantage of the MOOC format is the ability to reach out to thousands of students worldwide, exposing them to the science behind important issues that may have a direct impact on the lifestyle decisions they make, while the World Campus course allows us to explore deeper levels of cognition through application of carefully designed pedagogies. The principal difference between the two versions of the course will be assessment. The MOOC will have embedded assessment between pages and end of module quizzes. The InTeGrate course will have a range of assessments that are directly linked to the goals and objectives of the course. These will include active learning exercises built around energy and climate data. Both of the versions are works in progress and we anticipate modifying them regularly based on student feedback.

  18. What Will An Integrated Socialist World Look Like? Brief comments on Warren Wagar ' s article: "Toward a Praxisof a World Integration"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria A. Pozas

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available World integration under a single state is foreseen by world -system theorists as the only means to save the world from destruction and chaos. The exhaustion of capitalism will lead, in their view, to the substitution of the current system of competing sovereign states by a democratic,liberal and socialist commonwealth. In his article Warren Wagar discusses who will lead this transition, and indirectly suggests that a world system party similar to that of his novel A Short History of the Future (1992 may be the most feasible way to guarantee the socialist character of the new world state.

  19. Sustainable Nuclear Fuel Cycles and World Regional Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandra Schwenk-Ferrero

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper we have attempted to associate quantified impacts with a forecasted nuclear energy development in different world regions, under a range of hypotheses on the energy demand growth. It gives results in terms of availability of uranium resources, required deployment of fuel cycle facilities and reactor types. In particular, the need to achieve short doubling times with future fast reactors is investigated and quantified in specific world regions. It has been found that a crucial feature of any world scenario study is to provide not only trends for an idealized “homogeneous” description of the global world, but also trends for different regions in the world. These regions may be selected using rather simple criteria (mostly of a geographical type, in order to apply different hypotheses for energy demand growth, fuel cycle strategies and the implementation of various reactor types for the different regions. This approach was an attempt to avoid focusing on selected countries, in particular on those where no new significant energy demand growth is expected, but instead to provide trends and conclusions that account for the features of countries that will be major players in the world energy development in the future.

  20. Thyroid Disease Around the World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maniakas, Anastasios; Davies, Louise; Zafereo, Mark E

    2018-06-01

    Thyroid disease is one of the most common pathologies in the world, with two of the most clinically important subgroups being iodine deficiency and thyroid goiter, and thyroid cancer. This review looks at the current state of thyroid disease in the world and evaluates the future direction in terms of thyroid disease treatment and prevention. Several of the most impactful epidemiologic studies are presented and analyzed, as well as a brief overview of the current socioeconomic burden of disease. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. The Ocean: Our Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Independent World Commission On The Oceans; Soares, Mario

    1998-09-01

    The Ocean, Our Future is the official report of the Independent World Commission on the Oceans, chaired by Mário Soares, former President of Portugal. Its aim is to summarize the very real problems affecting the ocean and its future management, and to provide imaginative solutions to these various and interlocking problems. The oceans have traditionally been taken for granted as a source of wealth, opportunity and abundance. Our growing understanding of the oceans has fundamentally changed this perception. We now know that in some areas, abundance is giving way to real scarcity, resulting in severe conflicts. Territorial disputes that threaten peace and security, disruptions to global climate, overfishing, habitat destruction, species extinction, indiscriminate trawling, pollution, the dumping of hazardous and toxic wastes, piracy, terrorism, illegal trafficking and the destruction of coastal communities are among the problems that today form an integral part of the unfolding drama of the oceans. Based on the deliberations, experience and input of more than 100 specialists from around the world, this timely volume provides a powerful overview of the state of our water world.

  2. Changing the world with hydrogen and nuclear: From past successes to shaping the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carre, F.

    2010-01-01

    This presentation reviews the past history of hydrogen and nuclear energy, while considering how they had been important forever, how they have been used to change the world when they were discovered and understood, and how they will likely shape our future to face specific challenges of the 21. century. Content: 1 - hydrogen and nuclear reactions at the origin of the universe: the universe and supernovae, the sun, the blue planet, the evolution of man; 2 - understanding and first uses of hydrogen: the discovery of hydrogen, hydrogen balloons, airships or dirigibles, the discovery of the electrolysis and the fuel cell, Jules Vernes; 3 - development of nuclear over the 20. century: pioneers of nuclear energy, Fermi reactor, EBR-1; 4 - development of hydrogen over the 20. century, expanding uses of hydrogen over the second half of the 20. century; 5 - four major endeavours gathering hydrogen and nuclear: light water reactors, naval reactors, nuclear rockets, controlled fusion, the PNP-500 project; 6 - stakes in hydrogen and nuclear production in the 21. century: energy challenge for the 21. century, peaking of fossil fuel production, renaissance of nuclear energy, changes in transportation model, hydrogen market, technologies for nuclear hydrogen production, carbon taxes, the path forward: international demonstrations towards industrialisation, a new generation of scientists for our dreams come true

  3. The World Space Observatory Ultraviolet (WSO-UV), as a bridge to future UV astronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shustov, B.; Gómez de Castro, A. I.; Sachkov, M.; Vallejo, J. C.; Marcos-Arenal, P.; Kanev, E.; Savanov, I.; Shugarov, A.; Sichevskii, S.

    2018-04-01

    Ultraviolet (UV) astronomy is a vital branch of space astronomy. Many dozens of short-term UV-experiments in space, as well as long-term observatories, have brought a very important knowledge on the physics and chemistry of the Universe during the last decades. Unfortunately, no large UV-observatories are planned to be launched by most of space agencies in the coming 10-15 years. Conversely, the large UVOIR observatories of the future will appear not earlier than in 2030s. This paper briefly describes the projects that have been proposed by various groups. We conclude that the World Space Observatory-Ultraviolet (WSO-UV) will be the only 2-m class UV telescope with capabilities similar to those of the HST for the next decade. The WSO-UV has been described in detail in previous publications, and this paper updates the main characteristics of its instruments and the current state of the whole project. It also addresses the major science topics that have been included in the core program of the WSO-UV, making this core program very relevant to the current state of the UV-astronomy. Finally, we also present here the ground segment architecture that will implement this program.

  4. World LNG outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maisonnier, G.

    1999-01-01

    CEDIGAZ proposes this new survey about LNG in view of the main changes which have occurred on this market during the past few years. Several projects under construction or planned three years ago are now commissioned (Qatargas) or on the verge of starting to export this year (Trinidad LNG, RasGas, Nigeria LNG) or next years (Oman LNG). The Asian crisis, which had major impacts on both short-term demand in Asia and LNG prices, has brought about new uncertainties to the long-term prospects. At the same time, it now seems more and more certain that firstly India and then China will import LNG in the next decade. It remains to be seen at what level and when this will occur. LNG growth in Europe has now become a reality, and new potential markets, for example in South America (Brazil), are also being considered as real opportunities in the near future. Considering these 'new' trends, an updated study about LNG appeared necessary. This survey 'World LNG Outlook - 99 Edition' is organised as the previous one: a historical record since 1964 (Chapter 1) followed by a description of the infrastructures existing in 1998 (Chapter 2). The analysis continues with world trade prospects by the year 2010 (Chapters 3 to 5). Chapter 6 describes the future LNG chain and the last Chapter (7) focuses on economic matters (LNG price trends, cost reductions). The study 'World LNG Outlook - 99 Edition' offers hence a comprehensive panorama of this sector from a short and long-term point of view. (author)

  5. The Mediterranean Basin and Southern Europe in a warmer world: what can we learn from the past?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel eGuiot

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Since the late-nineteenth century, surface temperatures have non-uniformly increased worldwide. The repercussion of the global warming in drylands, such as in the Mediterranean, may become a main source of concern in a near future, as it is often accompanied by increased droughts, that will severely degrade water supply and quality. History shows that access to water resources has always presented a challenge for societies around the Mediterranean throughout the Holocene (roughly the last 10,000 years. Repeatedly, adverse climate shifts seem to have interacted with social, economic and political variables, exacerbating vulnerabilities in drier regions. We present a reconstruction of the Holocene climate in the Mediterranean Basin using an innovative method based on pollen data and vegetation modeling. The method consists in calculating the inputs of the vegetation model so that the outputs fit the pollen data, using a Bayesian framework. This model inversion is particularly suited to deal with increasing dissimilarities between past millennia and the last century, especially due to a direct effect of CO2 on vegetation. The comparison of fardistant past and last century shows that the intensity of century-scale precipitation fall, amplified by higher temperatures and then evapotranspiration, appears to be unmatched over the last 10,000 years and the comparison between west and east precipitation anomalies show a clear see-saw effect through all the Holocene, in particular during the dry episodes of Near and Middle East. As a consequence that Tthe recent climatic change seems thento have been unprecedented during the last 10,000 years in the Mediterranean Basin,.over the next few decades, Mediterranean societies will likely be more critically vulnerable to climate change, than at any dry period of the past. We show also that adverse climate shifts are often correlated with the decline or collapse of Mediterranean civiliszations, particularly in

  6. World energy insight

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-09-15

    The 21st World Energy Congress offers a unique opportunity for all stake-holders of the energy sector to meet and exchange visions, strategies and practices, during four days of very intensive and interesting sessions, round-tables and exhibitions. More than 3,000 energy leaders gather from around the world from both developed and developing countries, from all types of energy, from public and private companies and government organisations, in order to think together about how to bring about a sustainable and acceptable energy future. The truth is that nobody has the choice any longer. All energy leaders have to take decisions every day, and they need to have a clear analysis of what is at stake, what the risks are, and what the solutions can be.

  7. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  8. Local air pollution in the Arctic: knowledge gaps, challenges and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, K.; Schmale, J.; Anenberg, S.; Arnold, S.; Simpson, W. R.; Mao, J.; Starkweather, S.

    2017-12-01

    It is estimated that about 30 % of the world's undiscovered gas and 13 % of undiscovered oil resources are located in the Arctic. Sea ice loss with climate change is progressing rapidly and by 2050 the Arctic could be nearly sea ice free in summer. This will allow for Arctic industrialization, commercial shipping, fishing and tourism to increase. Given that the world population is projected to grow beyond 9 billion by mid-century needing more resources, partly to be found in the Arctic, it can be expected that the current urbanization trend in the region will accelerate in the future. Against this background, it is likely that new local emission sources emerge which may lead to increased burdens of air pollutants such as particulate matter (PM), reactive nitrogen, and ozone. Typical Arctic emission sources include road transport, domestic fuel burning, diesel emissions, as well as industrial sources such as oil and gas extraction, metallurgical smelting, power generation as well as shipping in coastal areas. These emissions and their impacts remain poorly quantified in the Arctic. Boreal wildfires can already affect summertime air quality and may increase in frequency and size in a warmer climate. Locally produced air pollution, in combination with cold, stagnant weather conditions and inversion layers in winter, can also lead to significant localized pollutant concentrations, often in exceedance of air quality standards. Despite these concerns, very few process studies on local air pollution in or near inhabited areas in the Arctic have been conducted, which significantly limits our understanding of atmospheric chemical reactions involving air pollutants under Arctic conditions (e.g., extremely cold and dry air with little solar radiation in winter) and their impacts on human health and ecosystems. We will provide an overview of our current understanding of local air pollution and its impacts in Arctic urban environments and highlight key gaps. We will discuss a

  9. World nuclear fuel market. Eighteenth annual meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    The papers presented at the eighteenth World Nuclear Fuels Market meeting are cataloged separately. This volume includes information on the following areas of interest: world uranium enrichment capacity and enriched uranium inventories; the impact of new enrichment technologies; predictions of future market trends; non-proliferation aspects of nuclear trade; and a debate as to whether uranium can be successfully traded on a commodities exchange

  10. World energy projections to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Criqui, P.; Kouvaritakis, N.

    2000-01-01

    This paper provides a description of the international energy projections elaborated with the POLES energy model for the purpose of analysing, in other papers of this issue, the impacts of technological change at world level and to 2030. Section 2 describes the key exogenous hypotheses on population and economic growth used for this projection, as well as the main resulting changes for the world energy system and in terms of CO 2 emissions. In Section 3 the dynamics of the energy systems are further analysed for four main world regions, while Section 4 is dedicated to the identification of the key uncertainties and of their possible impacts on future energy development. Finally, the last section presents the key messages of this outlook, which shows a rapidly growing world economy and energy consumption with increasing oil and gas prices, although this last feature remains subject to uncertainties on resource endowment estimates. (orig.)

  11. World power engineering. General review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alekseev, B.A.; Vol'fberg, D.B.; Ershevich, V.V.

    1989-01-01

    State and prospects of the world power engineering development are considered. Eelectricity production requires the greatest part of the world total energy consumption. The latter will grow and in future at the beginning of the next century it reaches 50%. The part of NPPs in 1986 constituted 12% in power and 16% in electricity production. In the middle of 1987 403 NPP units of 298 GW total power were in operation in the world; 138 units (123 GW) were under construction and 84 units (84 GW) were planed. In 1987 power units of 216 GW total power were put into operation. The largest NPPs are Fukushima (Japan) - 9.0 GW, Bruce(Canada) - 8.4 GW, Gravelines (France) - 5.56 GW

  12. Development of world coal reserves, their registration and their utilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bachmann, H

    1979-10-01

    This paper examines statistics on world coal production and world coal reserves with figures from 1860 to 1974 provided in tables and graphs. Eighty percent of the total world coal reserves (92% of world brown coal reserves) lie in the USA and USSR. The recent increase in total coal reserve estimates is due to exploration in western USA and in the USSR east of the Urals. Depth and thickness of the world's coal seams are shown in graphs and variations in coal quality are discussed. Problems associated with the anticipated substantial increase in coal production up to the year 2000 are considered. Encouraging higher coal production is the successful development of highly mechanized underground mining techniques and highly productive heavy surface mining equipment which allows excavation at increased depths. Surface mining is expected to make up 50% of total world mining operations in the near future. More complete deposit exploitation also contributes to higher coal production. Low international ship freight rates would facilitate future world coal trade. Obstacles are seen as: high, long term investments due to the fact that coal reserves lie far from populated and industrialized areas; opening new mines; transportation costs and infrastructure development.

  13. Bioaccumulation and elimination of mercury in juvenile seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) in a warmer environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maulvault, Ana Luísa, E-mail: aluisa@ipma.pt [Division of Aquaculture and Seafood Upgrading, Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere, I.P. (IPMA), Avenida de Brasília, 1449-006 Lisboa (Portugal); Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research (CIIMAR), Universidade do Porto, Rua dos Bragas, 289, 4050-123 Porto (Portugal); MARE – Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Laboratório Marítimo da Guia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Nossa Senhora do Cabo, 939, 2750-374 Cascais (Portugal); Custódio, Ana [Division of Aquaculture and Seafood Upgrading, Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere, I.P. (IPMA), Avenida de Brasília, 1449-006 Lisboa (Portugal); Instituto Superior de Agronomia (ISA), School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa (Portugal); Anacleto, Patrícia [Division of Aquaculture and Seafood Upgrading, Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere, I.P. (IPMA), Avenida de Brasília, 1449-006 Lisboa (Portugal); Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research (CIIMAR), Universidade do Porto, Rua dos Bragas, 289, 4050-123 Porto (Portugal); MARE – Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Laboratório Marítimo da Guia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Nossa Senhora do Cabo, 939, 2750-374 Cascais (Portugal); and others

    2016-08-15

    Warming is an expected impact of climate change that will affect coastal areas in the future. These areas are also subjected to strong anthropogenic pressures leading to chemical contamination. Yet, the consequences of both factors for marine ecosystems, biota and consumers are still unknown. The present work aims to investigate, for the first time, the effect of temperature increase on bioaccumulation and elimination of mercury [(total mercury (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg)] in three tissues (muscle, liver, and brain) of a commercially important seafood species – European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax). Fish were exposed to the ambient temperature currently used in seabass rearing (18 °C) and to the expected ocean warming (+4 °C, i.e. 22 °C), as well as dietary MeHg during 28 days, followed by a depuration period of 28 days fed with a control diet. In both temperature exposures, higher MeHg contents were observed in the brain, followed by the muscle and liver. Liver registered the highest elimination percentages (EF; up to 64% in the liver, 20% in the brain, and 3% in the muscle). Overall, the results clearly indicate that a warming environment promotes MeHg bioaccumulation in all tissues (e.g. highest levels in brain: 8.1 mg kg{sup −1} ww at 22 °C against 6.2 mg kg{sup −1} ww at 18 °C after 28 days of MeHg exposure) and hampers MeHg elimination (e.g. liver EF decreases after 28 days of depuration: from 64.2% at 18 °C to 50.3% at 22 °C). These findings suggest that seafood safety may be compromised in a warming context, particularly for seafood species with contaminant concentrations close to the current regulatory levels. Hence, results point out the need to strengthen research in this area and to revise and/or adapt the current recommendations regarding human exposure to chemical contaminants through seafood consumption, in order to integrate the expected effects of climate change. - Highlights: • Higher MeHg contents were found in the brain

  14. A glimpse of the future in animal nutrition science. 1. Past and future challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Tedeschi, Luis Orlindo; Almeida, Amélia Katiane de; Atzori, Alberto Stanislao; Muir, James Pierre; Fonseca, Mozart Alves; Cannas, Antonello

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT If the world population continues to increase exponentially, wealth and education inequalities might become more pronounced in the developing world. Thus, offering affordable, high-quality protein food to people will become more important and daunting than ever. Past and future challenges will increasingly demand quicker and more innovative and efficient solutions. Animal scientists around the globe currently face many challenging issues: from ensuring food security to prevent excess...

  15. Women are Warmer but No Less Assertive than Men: Gender and Language on Facebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Gregory; Schwartz, H. Andrew; Kern, Margaret L.; Eichstaedt, Johannes C.; Kosinski, Michael; Stillwell, David; Ungar, Lyle H.; Seligman, Martin E. P.

    2016-01-01

    Using a large social media dataset and open-vocabulary methods from computational linguistics, we explored differences in language use across gender, affiliation, and assertiveness. In Study 1, we analyzed topics (groups of semantically similar words) across 10 million messages from over 52,000 Facebook users. Most language differed little across gender. However, topics most associated with self-identified female participants included friends, family, and social life, whereas topics most associated with self-identified male participants included swearing, anger, discussion of objects instead of people, and the use of argumentative language. In Study 2, we plotted male- and female-linked language topics along two interpersonal dimensions prevalent in gender research: affiliation and assertiveness. In a sample of over 15,000 Facebook users, we found substantial gender differences in the use of affiliative language and slight differences in assertive language. Language used more by self-identified females was interpersonally warmer, more compassionate, polite, and—contrary to previous findings—slightly more assertive in their language use, whereas language used more by self-identified males was colder, more hostile, and impersonal. Computational linguistic analysis combined with methods to automatically label topics offer means for testing psychological theories unobtrusively at large scale. PMID:27223607

  16. Regional landslide hazard assessment in a deep uncertain future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

    2017-04-01

    Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around future rainfall conditions. We demonstrate how GSA can used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

  17. World Engineer’s Convention 2011: Engineers Power the World

    CERN Multimedia

    Yi Ling Hwong (Knowledge Transfer) and Katarina Anthony

    2011-01-01

    Can the increasing global energy consumption be met without intensifying global warming? Do the necessary technical solutions exist, and is the switch to a low-carbon energy supply feasible and financially viable? These crucial questions and many others were dealt with at the 2011World Engineer’s Convention (WEC). CERN was invited to participate in the event, highlighting its significant contribution to global engineering with an exhibition space devoted to the LHC on the convention floor and a keynote speech delivered by CERN’s Director-General.   From 4 – 9 September 2011, more than 2000 engineers and researchers, as well as politicians and business representatives from about 100 countries gathered at the 2011World Engineer’s Convention (WEC). Held in Geneva, Switzerland, they met to discuss solutions for a sustainable energy future. Discussions looked at the development of engineering solutions through a variety of approaches, with ...

  18. The development of the world's population as a factor determining future energy requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vossebrecker, H.; Henssen, H.

    1988-01-01

    Urgently desired economic developments improving the conditions of living in the developing countries and, in the long term, introducing a stabilization of the world's population, result in a considerable rise in world energy requirement. This, in turn, causes conflicts and raises major ecological dangers because of the accelerated depletion of fossil sources of energy it entails. The severity of the CO 2 problem emerges clearly only when seen in connection with the population growth of the developing countries. Undoubtedly, therefore, the fossil sources of energy will have to give up their present leading role in world energy supply because of the intolerable environmental pollution they produce and because of the dwindling oil and gas reserves. The only hope remaining for the present is the possibility of nuclear power and renewable energies pointly being able to meet requirements, while all economically reasonable conservation potentials are being exploited. (orig./UA) [de

  19. Bianchi type II brane-world cosmologies (U≥0)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoogen, R.J. van den; Ibanez, J.

    2003-01-01

    The asymptotic properties of the Bianchi type II cosmological model in the brane-world scenario are investigated. The matter content is assumed to be a combination of a perfect fluid and a minimally coupled scalar field that is restricted to the brane. The isotropic brane-world solution is determined to represent the initial singularity in all brane-world cosmologies. Additionally, it is shown that it is the kinetic energy of the scalar field which dominates the initial dynamics in these brane-world cosmologies. It is important to note that the dynamics of these brane-world cosmologies is not necessarily asymptotic to general relativistic cosmologies to the future in the case of a zero four-dimensional cosmological constant

  20. 7th WACBE World Congress on Bioengineering 2015

    CERN Document Server

    Lim, Chwee

    2015-01-01

    This volume publishes the proceedings of the WACBE World Congress on Bioengineering 2015 (WACBE 2015), which was be held in Singapore, from 6 to 8 July 2015. The World Association for Chinese Biomedical Engineers (WACBE) organizes this World Congress biannually. Our past congresses have brought together many biomedical engineers from over the world to share their experiences and views on the future development of biomedical engineering. The 7th WACBE World Congress on Bioengineering 2015 in Singapore continued to offer such a networking platform for all biomedical engineers. Hosted by the Biomedical Engineering Society (Singapore) and the Department of Biomedical Engineering, National University of Singapore, the congress covered all related areas in bioengineering.

  1. Iraq's future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson, S.

    1998-01-01

    The large oil reserves of Iraq make it an important player in the long-term political energy world. This article briefly reviews the oil industry''s development and current status in Iraq and discusses the planned oil and gas field development. Finally there is a political discussion regarding the future of Iraq in terms of religion, race and neighbouring countries. (UK)

  2. World energy supply and demand and the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lantzke, U.

    1977-01-01

    The author discusses the OECD's report ''World Energy Outlook'', which concluded that a severe energy gap could, and probably would, develop by the mid-1980s if present energy policies continue. Should nuclear power fail to make a substantial contribution, this situation is predicted to become even worse. The author states that an energy gap can only be realistically avoided by a combination of (a) deep energy conservation, (b) even greater use of coal, and (c) nuclear power. New energy technologies cannot realistically be expected to make a significant contribution much before the end of the century. Conservation and coal alone, however, will not be sufficient. It is difficult to envisage energy savings of more than 10% without reducing economic activity to a degree that becomes politically unacceptable. Greater use of coal is undoubtedly feasible, but the potential is severely constrained in the medium term for economic, technological and environmental reasons. Nuclear power must also make a significant contribution. However, estimates of OECD nuclear energy supply for 1985 have been scaled drastically downwards during 1976 owing to: uncertainty in the utility sector over future growth in electricity demand; continued, and in some cases increased, opposition to nuclear power; and delays and uncertainties in government nuclear policies and programmes. The author concludes that we cannot afford any further shortfall and we must move urgently to: (a) give strong and unswerving support to thermal nuclear reactor programmes (requiring that governments adopt clear and coherent nuclear policies, taking into account the legitimate concern expressed by the public); (b) develop stable and long-term international arrangements so that the necessary nuclear fuel facilities can be made available on a secure basis for peaceful uses of nuclear power; (c) decide what the real proliferation risk is and agree on action to avoid it; and (d) make renewed and stronger efforts to solve

  3. Sin-wai, Chan. The Future of Translation Technology: Towards a World without Babel. London and New York: Routledge, 2017. 302 p.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Kelahan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Chan Sin-wai is a professor and chairman of the Department of Translation at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen. Additionally, he is the director of the Center for Translation Technology as well as the university’s MA Program in Computer-aided translation.  In 2016, he published A New Comprehensive Chinese-English Dictionary, Routledge Encyclopedia of Translation Technology and Routledge Encyclopedia of the Chinese Language. His newest book, The Future of Translation Technology: Towards a World without Babel, is described as “an essential read for scholars and researchers of translation studies and computational linguistics, and a guide to system users and professionals.”

  4. Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shabeh ul Hasson

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Future of the crucial Himalayan water supplies has generally been assessed under the anthropogenic warming, typically consistent amid observations and climate model projections. However, conflicting mid-to-late melt-season cooling within the upper Indus basin (UIB suggests that the future of its melt-dominated hydrological regime and the subsequent water availability under changing climate has yet been understood only indistinctly. Here, the future water availability from the UIB is presented under both observed and projected—though likely but contrasting—climate change scenarios. Continuation of prevailing climatic changes suggests decreased and delayed glacier melt but increased and early snowmelt, leading to reduction in the overall water availability and profound changes in the overall seasonality of the hydrological regime. Hence, initial increases in the water availability due to enhanced glacier melt under typically projected warmer climates, and then abrupt decrease upon vanishing of the glaciers, as reported earlier, is only true given the UIB starts following uniformly the global warming signal. Such discordant future water availability findings caution the impact assessment communities to consider the relevance of likely (near-future climate change scenarios—consistent to prevalent climatic change patterns—in order to adequately support the water resource planning in Pakistan.

  5. Past, Present, and Future of Psychosomatic Movements in an Ever-Changing World: Presidential Address.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrmann-Lingen, Christoph

    The American Psychosomatic Society was founded in 1942 and is celebrating its 75th anniversary in 2017. In recognizing the society's anniversary, this article provides a historical perspective on its history, the field of psychosomatic medicine in general, and anticipated future directions. Essay and narrative review of the literature on the historic development of psychosomatic concepts and their impact on medicine over time. Mind-body associations have been described in the medical literature for more than 3500 years. Early concepts of mind-body dualism and attempts to overcome them are found in classical Greek medicine. Psychosomatic thinking can be observed ever since, but only in the 20th century, a "psychosomatic movement" emerged in Europe and North America, aiming at humanizing medicine by introducing a holistic understanding of man into what was considered a widely reductionistic practice of medicine. This movement led to the inauguration of the American Psychosomatic Society during World War II and of national and international societies of psychosomatic medicine and its subspecializations thereafter. Psychosomatic medicine has its roots in the beginnings of medicine. During the past 75 years, it has made substantial contributions to the science and practice of medicine. The field has also changed in response to developments in medicine, technology, and society and is facing new challenges and opportunities that may require further adaptation of its concepts and practice.

  6. Doing methodological cosmopolitanism in a mobile world

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tyfield, David; Blok, Anders

    2016-01-01

    A decade of mobilities research has responded to the key question of how a ‘world on the move’ can and should be studied, including in terms of futures thereby brought into view and possibly shaped into being. What happens, however, if we shift our focus from the ‘world on the move’ to the ‘world...... imperatives, specifically regarding dynamic, interactive and power-attentive forms of social knowledge-making or phronesis, a situated practical wisdom. We illustrate these points in brief with insights from our own methodologically cosmopolitan research on key contemporary cosmopolitized issues, undertaken...

  7. Balancing benefits and costs in a 4°C world: the need for and challenges of natural-social science dialogue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, R. E.

    2012-12-01

    Making wise policy decisions regarding mitigation, adaptation and geoengineering requires fair assessments of the risks of both action and inaction. Such assessments necessitate dialogue between natural and social scientists. Recent attempts by the U.S. government to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC) for use in balancing the benefits and costs of proposed mitigatory regulations highlight some of the challenges involved. Among them: (1) Scale: The costs and benefits of adaptation decisions generally take place locally, while the benefits of mitigation accrue globally. Most studies to inform adaptation decision have, quite reasonably, taken place at the local scale, but this has left globally aggregate estimates of climate risk in a fairly tenuous state, engaging only a handful of economists. More accurate assessments, needed for making critical policy decisions as we approach a 4°C world, will require both better top-down analyses and a better framework for integrating bottom-up analyses. (2) Historical validation: Integrated assessment models have not been subject to validation studies, such as the historical runs used to test physical climate models. Conducting such studies for impact analyses will require the integration and further development of statistical analyses of the human impact of past and ongoing climate change. If models don't work for a 0.8°C world, there's no reason to think they'll work for a 4°C world. (3) Looking beyond a 4°C world: A world that reaches 4°C in this century may exceed it in the next century; and even if temperature is stabilized, understanding the economic impacts of 4°C warming will require more than the current approach of extrapolating from 2°C impacts. Natural scientists and social scientists need to work together to estimate damage calibration points for considerably warmer conditions. Recent work on the loss of physiologically habitable regions in a >8°C warmer world is a rare step in this direction (Sherwood

  8. Potential for a hazardous geospheric response to projected future climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, B

    2010-05-28

    Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the geosphere, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. The response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a broad range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and subaerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide 'splash' waves, glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilization. In relation to anthropogenic climate change, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a warmer world, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere. Here, the potential influences of anthropogenic warming are reviewed in relation to an array of geological and geomorphological hazards across a range of environmental settings. A programme of focused research is advocated in order to: (i) understand better those mechanisms by which contemporary climate change may drive hazardous geological and geomorphological activity; (ii) delineate those parts of the world that are most susceptible; and (iii) provide a more robust appreciation of potential impacts for society and infrastructure.

  9. Counseling For Future Shock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Lewis B.

    1974-01-01

    In this article the author looks at some of the searing prophecies made by Alvin Toffler in his book Future Shock and relates them to the world of the professional counselor and the clientele the counselor attempts to serve. (Author)

  10. Responsibility for the future of the world-paradigm shift in the theory and practice of marketing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gábor Rekettye

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available En las últimas cuatro décadas muchos estudios científicos fueron publicados sobre los impactos medioambientales que amenazan el futuro de nuestro planeta. Estas manifestaciones apenas han afectado el área de marketing, no ha habido ningún cambio paradigmático. La primera parte del artículo trata de los procesos climáticos que amenazan el medio ambiente y la vida cotidiana de la población, y que pueden ser importantes para la formación del futuro del marketing. Hay una relación estrecha entre el cambio climático y el consumismo que estimula la investigación sobre la responsabilidad y la sostenibilidad del consumo. La segunda parte del artículo trata de esbozar las nuevas tendencias posibles en la teoría y en la práctica del marketing que son necesarias para enfrentar las cambiantes necesidades medioambientales.In the last four decades quite a lot of scientific studies have been published about those dangerous signs which threaten the future of our world. These manifests have only slightly affected the field of marketing; no paradigm shift has taken place. The first part of the paper deals with climate processes threatening the environment and the everyday life of the population, and which may be important in shaping the future of marketing. There is a strong relation between climate change and consumerism enforcing the research about the responsibility and sustainability of consumption. The second part of the study tries to outline those possible new trends in the theory and practice of marketing which are necessary to meet the changing environmental needs.

  11. Future of the Book? Challenge of the Digital World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pledger, Pat

    2010-01-01

    In the last ten years there has been much speculation about the role of e-books and e-book readers. This paper will look at the impact of e-book readers on publishing and reading, the types of e-book readers, their advantages and disadvantages. Some ideas for future e-books and e-book readers and their use in the library and classroom will be…

  12. Prospecting the future with AI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julian Gonzalez

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available If we were able to foresee the future, we could be prepared to reduce the impact of bad situations as well as getting the most of profiting periods. Our world is a dynamic system that evolves as time goes by. The number of variables that can influence in future situations outnumbers our capacity of prediction at a first glance. This article will show an alternative way to foresee potential future scenarios based on human experts’ opinion, what can be considered as aknowledge modeling tool.

  13. Shattering world assumptions: A prospective view of the impact of adverse events on world assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuler, Eric R; Boals, Adriel

    2016-05-01

    Shattered Assumptions theory (Janoff-Bulman, 1992) posits that experiencing a traumatic event has the potential to diminish the degree of optimism in the assumptions of the world (assumptive world), which could lead to the development of posttraumatic stress disorder. Prior research assessed the assumptive world with a measure that was recently reported to have poor psychometric properties (Kaler et al., 2008). The current study had 3 aims: (a) to assess the psychometric properties of a recently developed measure of the assumptive world, (b) to retrospectively examine how prior adverse events affected the optimism of the assumptive world, and (c) to measure the impact of an intervening adverse event. An 8-week prospective design with a college sample (N = 882 at Time 1 and N = 511 at Time 2) was used to assess the study objectives. We split adverse events into those that were objectively or subjectively traumatic in nature. The new measure exhibited adequate psychometric properties. The report of a prior objective or subjective trauma at Time 1 was related to a less optimistic assumptive world. Furthermore, participants who experienced an intervening objectively traumatic event evidenced a decrease in optimistic views of the world compared with those who did not experience an intervening adverse event. We found support for Shattered Assumptions theory retrospectively and prospectively using a reliable measure of the assumptive world. We discuss future assessments of the measure of the assumptive world and clinical implications to help rebuild the assumptive world with current therapies. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Development and supply of the world energy requirement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulz, E.

    1981-01-01

    Recently published research reveals that the world energy requirement can and must grow more slowly than previously anticipated. In order to supply developing nations with the energy necessary for the expansion of their economies, energy saving and oil substitution assume greater significance in the industrialised countries such as the Federal Republic. Future fulfillment of the world energy requirement will be characterised by escalating costs for supply, especially for the current main energy carrier oil, on the one hand and by increased use of coal and nuclear energy as well unconventional fossils such as regenerative energies on the other. Nuclear energy and thus the electricity economy must play a key function in the future energy supply of industrial nations such as Federal Germany. Nuclear energy enables, both directly and indirectly, the substitution of oil in the heat market, supplies the process heat required for coal production and, due to the ease of storage or uranium, provides a hedge against fluctuations on the world energy market. (orig.) [de

  15. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Alan M; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M

    2016-02-16

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

  16. Reactors of different types in the world nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonov, K.V.

    1991-01-01

    The status of the world nuclear power is briefly reviewed. It is noted that PWR reactors have decisive significance in the world power. The second place is related to gas-cooled graphite-moderated reactors. Channel-type heavy water moderated reactors are relatively important. Nuclear power future is associated with fast liquid-metal cooled breeder reactors

  17. Uranium - the world picture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silver, J.M.; Wright, W.J.

    1976-01-01

    The world resources of uranium and the future demand for uranium are discussed. The amount of uranium available depends on the price which users are prepared to pay for its recovery. As the price is increased, there is an incentive to recover uranium from lower grade or more difficult deposits. In view of this, attention is drawn to the development of the uranium industry in Australias

  18. Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

    2017-10-01

    Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

  19. The world coal market: supplies, prices, transport (Review)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drozdnik, I.D.; Kaftan, Yu.S.; Dolzhanskaya, Yu.B.

    1998-01-01

    The state of the world coal market in the period of 1994-1997 is reviewed, its long-term outlooks are presented. The major world coal exporters-Australia, Canada, China, Poland, Russia, the USA, SAR, and Ukraine are briefly characterized. It is pointed out that in the foreseeable future coal will retain its importance of a primary energy carrier along with petroleum and natural gas

  20. Proceedings of the CERI 2002 World Oil Conference : Reading the Future. CD ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The integration and expansion of world oil markets was the main topic of this conference which featured 18 presentations dealing with developments in the international energy sector. The conference provided an opportunity for participants to discuss issues regarding oil supply and demand, oil prices, OPEC's spare capacity, OPEC's view regarding increasing competition from Canada's oil sands, and what role non-conventional oil plays in today's marketplace. The conference was divided into 6 sessions entitled: (1) oil prices, business as usual, (2) world oil demand, the incredible shrinking market, (3) global oil supplies, (4) going offshore, (5) the politics of oil, and (6) the growing North American supply. The outlook of world energy markets was reviewed with particular emphasis on prospects for oil supply and reserves. Also, the current status of the petroleum industry in both OPEC and non-OPEC oil exporting countries was discussed with reference to exploration, production, reserves, and hydrocarbon potential as well as the environmental, and socio-economic challenges that the industry must face. refs., tabs., figs

  1. Electric business in the world (the first)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takai, Mikio

    2009-01-01

    It consists of three chapters such as the energy and electricity in the world, the nuclear power generation in the world and each country. The first chapter includes the energy demand of each country in 2007 and for the future and estimation of electric power demand in the world, introduction of photovoltaic (PV) power generation, Emission Trading, and The Third Energy Package proposed by The European Commission in 2007. The second chapter states the conditions of nuclear power plants and construction plans in the world. The third chapter explains the nuclear power generation situation in US, England, France, German, Sweden, Korea, China, Russia and Eastern Europe. The consumption of energy in the world and each area, consumption of energy and increasing rate of each energy source, the change of electric power resources in the world, change of PV in each country, price of PV in EU under FIT system, the main regulations for emission trading in EU, and the nuclear power generation plants in the world on 31 December 2007 are illustrated. (S.Y.)

  2. Importance of marketing management in the world pfarmaceutical industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragan Kesič

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The world pharmaceutical industry has changed tremendously in the last decade. Globalization processes reinforce a consolidation of the world pharmaceutical industry. Mergers and acquisitions prevail more and more as a strategic orientation of numerous world pharmaceutical companies. In our research we found out that marketing management has been playing an increasingly important or even a crucial role in day-today activities and strategic business operations of the world pharmaceutical companies. We may point out that a rapid consolidation of the world pharmaceutical industry is definitely a market-driven process, one conditioned by typical strategic marketing management issues, such as a lack of brand new products, intense competitiveness, globalization processes, increased global marketing and sales activities, changing structure of global competitors as well as a furious fight for global market shares and customers’ loyalty. We estimate that marketing management is to play an even more important and, especially, the top priority strategic role in the future globalization and concentration processes of the world pharmaceutical industry. Some experiences and lessons from the global perspective of the world pharmaceutical industry could also be useful to the management of pharmaceutical companies in the transition countries of the Central and Eastern European region. Taking into consideration the current market position of these companies, some marketing management guidelines for their marketing management policies and strategies could be suggested. We conclude that underestimating, or even complete neglect of the importance of marketing management issues may pose the greatest threat to the future strategic orientation and performance of the world pharmaceutical industry.

  3. Women are Warmer but No Less Assertive than Men: Gender and Language on Facebook.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory Park

    Full Text Available Using a large social media dataset and open-vocabulary methods from computational linguistics, we explored differences in language use across gender, affiliation, and assertiveness. In Study 1, we analyzed topics (groups of semantically similar words across 10 million messages from over 52,000 Facebook users. Most language differed little across gender. However, topics most associated with self-identified female participants included friends, family, and social life, whereas topics most associated with self-identified male participants included swearing, anger, discussion of objects instead of people, and the use of argumentative language. In Study 2, we plotted male- and female-linked language topics along two interpersonal dimensions prevalent in gender research: affiliation and assertiveness. In a sample of over 15,000 Facebook users, we found substantial gender differences in the use of affiliative language and slight differences in assertive language. Language used more by self-identified females was interpersonally warmer, more compassionate, polite, and-contrary to previous findings-slightly more assertive in their language use, whereas language used more by self-identified males was colder, more hostile, and impersonal. Computational linguistic analysis combined with methods to automatically label topics offer means for testing psychological theories unobtrusively at large scale.

  4. U.S. congressional attitudes and policies affecting nuclear power development in the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCormack, M.

    1976-01-01

    The world future for nuclear power is even now being formed by policies and decisions of many governments and international organizations. Congressman McCormack looks to the United States for revived and stronger leadership in strengthening the web of institutions and international relations to permit the world to reap the benefits of nuclear power without a destabilizing spread of nuclear weapons. He says Congress will have a major role in shaping that nuclear future. The tensions between Congress and the executive branch that are part of the U.S. system of separation of powers can help to test and strengthen future policy on international nuclear power. The point of no return along the course of nuclear evolution is approaching and the author asks: will we press on to create an acceptable balance between benefits of nuclear power and the risk that expanded use may increase proliferation--or will we turn back toward nuclear isolationism. Mr. McCormack opts for vigorous legislative, executive and diplomatic initiatives to sustain U.S. nuclear leadership so that we can accelerate and influence world measures to prevent proliferation while developing uranium and thorium as future world energy resources

  5. Securing a better future for all: Nuclear techniques for global development and environmental protection. NA factsheet on isotope hydrology: Ensuring water now and for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    Providing adequate freshwater of a desired quality to their populations is one of the foremost development challenges faced by Member States. Although water is a basic human need, it is estimated that nearly one billion people in developing countries do not have access to safe drinking water and more than two billion lack basic sanitation facilities due to inadequate water availability. According to the World Health Organization, nearly five million people - mostly children - die each year from preventable, water-borne diseases. Increasing population, irrigated agriculture and industrial growth together have stressed global freshwater resources over the past several decades. In addition, climate change and the need for greater energy production are now significant drivers of stress on water resources. Nearly 40% of world food production is achieved by means of irrigated agriculture, which accounts for about 70% of total freshwater withdrawals. A significant proportion of groundwater used for irrigation comes from fossil or non-renewable sources, making the food supply unsustainable for a growing human population. Nearly one in three people depends upon water from rivers that are fed by glaciers and snow melt. Increased variability and vulnerability of river flows in a warmer climate (due to increased glacial melt and changes in precipitation patterns) will drive the need for changes in water use and management practices. These changes may also include greater dependence on already stressed groundwater resources. Nearly four billion people - half of the world's population - may live under conditions of water stress in the next two decades.

  6. High-speed ping-pong tables. Does the 'World Solar Challenge' feature the cars of the future? Rather not.; Rasende Tischtennisplatten. Fahren bei der ''World Solar Challenge'' die Autos der Zukunft? Eher nicht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siemer, Jochen

    2011-10-15

    The 11th 'World Solar Challenge' started in mid-October 2011. This a race of solar cars across Australia is the most spectacular of its kind, but it is hardly a test for solar cars of the future as the regulations for racing cars are far from those for everyday electric-powered solar vehicles. A normal-looking car like the 'Solarworld GT' developed at Bochum university therefore has no real chance of winning, however proud its designers may be.

  7. Case Studies on Climate Change and World Heritage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colette, A.

    2007-07-01

    The UNESCO World Heritage Centre (WHC) initiated an assessment of the impacts of climate change on World Heritage in 2005, after the World Heritage Committee noted that 'the impacts of climate change are affecting many and are likely to affect many more World Heritage properties, both natural and cultural in the years to come'. A meeting of experts was convened in March 2006 bringing together over 50 representatives from the States Parties to the World Heritage Convention, various international organizations, non-governmental organizations, the Advisory Bodies to the World Heritage Committee, and academic and scientific experts, to discuss current and future impacts of climate change on World Heritage sites. The outcome of this initiative included a 'Report on Predicting and Managing the Effects of Climate Change on World Heritage', as well as a 'Strategy to Assist States Parties to Implement Appropriate Management Responses' which were endorsed by the World Heritage Committee at its 30th session in July 2006, Vilnius, Lithuania. The outcome of this work has shown that it is timely to develop and implement appropriate management responses to protect World Heritage in the face of climate change. The solutions to global warming are the subject of continuing debate. Some of these measures, beyond the scope of the World Heritage Convention, are discussed under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). But although climate change is a global challenge, there are many adaptation and preventive measures that can be taken at the local scale, i.e. at the level of the World Heritage sites. Studies are currently being conducted at several World Heritage sites to monitor climate change impacts and plan appropriate adaptation measures. But the World Heritage network is also a useful tool to share and promote lessons learnt and best practices, as well as to raise awareness regarding climate change impacts

  8. Dengue Preventive Strategies: Third World (My World Entrepreneurs Wake Up and Please Stand Up

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak Gupta

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available It has taken me almost 19 years and observing/enduring/ignoring 20 seasons of dengue fever in our country’s capital, Delhi to finally say “Enough is enough”. How many more precious lives dengue will consume before infrastructure resolves to fight back and eradicate dengue. Why the development of vaccine has been difficult for this mosquito borne disease. The good news is that the WHO has promising data accumulation in favor of live attenuated recombinant tetravalent dengue vaccine titled CYD-TDV that has taken up the arduous challenge to counter all four serotypes of dengue virus. Hopefully, by April 2016, the WHO may have their recommendations (if any about how and when to use CYD-TDV. Subsequently, the ball will be in the court of dengue-endemic nations’ regulatory authorities to take on the implementations of the WHO recommendations. Herein will lay the prerogative of dengue-endemic nations’ physician-entrepreneurs/pharmaceutical-entrepreneurs in the Third World (my world to take it upon them to ensure that although they have been slow to catch up (already 20 seasons have flown past, they should not miss the train now once the WHO publishes its recommendations in near future so that hopefully, the next season sees the dawn of hope and shifting of gears from economy-draining sluggish anti-dengue campaign to economy-driving future eradicate-dengue campaign initiating from the dengue-endemic nations across the world, including India.

  9. World trends from 2017

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janković Slobodan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing Anglo-American approach in prognosis, he starts with analysis of the world order changes, of EU trends, Middle, Far East and some trends regarding Africa. Author presents macro trends in North - West Pacific, in Israel-Palestine, in Syria, Iraq, in Europe.

  10. Reimagine the Future: Innovation for Every Child. The State of the World's Children 2015. Executive Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    UNICEF, 2014

    2014-01-01

    To mark the 25th anniversary of the Convention on the Rights of the Child, this edition of "The State of the World's Children" calls for brave and fresh thinking to address age-old problems that still affect the world's most disadvantaged children. The report is inspired by the work of innovators around the world--who are pushing…

  11. World nuclear performance report 2017

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cobb, Jonathan

    2017-01-01

    World Nuclear Association recently published the 2017 edition of the World Nuclear Performance Report. The report presents key metrics that illustrate current performance, both of reactors currently operating and those under construction. The article highlights some of the most important findings of the report. The pace of new build will need to accelerate if nuclear energy is going to make a growing contribution to the global electricity generation mix, a requirement of many projections of future scenarios that aim to meet the objective of limiting the rise average temperatures to below two degrees Celsius, while at the same time meeting the growing worldwide demand for electricity.

  12. World nuclear performance report 2017

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cobb, Jonathan [World Nuclear Association, London (United Kingdom)

    2017-08-15

    World Nuclear Association recently published the 2017 edition of the World Nuclear Performance Report. The report presents key metrics that illustrate current performance, both of reactors currently operating and those under construction. The article highlights some of the most important findings of the report. The pace of new build will need to accelerate if nuclear energy is going to make a growing contribution to the global electricity generation mix, a requirement of many projections of future scenarios that aim to meet the objective of limiting the rise average temperatures to below two degrees Celsius, while at the same time meeting the growing worldwide demand for electricity.

  13. Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruosch, Melanie; Spahni, Renato; Joos, Fortunat; Henne, Paul D; van der Knaap, Willem O; Tinner, Willy

    2016-02-01

    Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling-Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer

  14. Dawn of small worlds dwarf planets, asteroids, comets

    CERN Document Server

    Moltenbrey, Michael

    2016-01-01

    This book gives a detailed introduction to the thousands and thousands of smaller bodies in the solar system. Written for interested laymen, amateur astronomers and students it describes the nature and origin of asteroids, dwarf planets and comets, and gives detailed information about their role in the solar system. The author nicely reviews the history of small-world-exploration and describes past, current and future space craft missions studying small worlds, and presents their results. Readers will learn that small solar system worlds have a dramatically different nature and appearance than the planets. Even though research activity on small worlds has increased in the recent past many of their properties are still in the dark and need further research.

  15. A hypothesis and a case-study projection of an influence of MJO modulation on boreal-summer tropical cyclogenesis in a warmer climate with a global non-hydrostatic model: a transition toward the central Pacific?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KAZUYOSHI eOOUCHI

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The eastward shift of the enhanced activity of tropical cyclone to the central Pacific is a robust projection result for a future warmer climate, and is shared by most of the state-of-the-art climate models. The shift has been argued to originate from the underlying El-Ñino like sea-surface temperature (SST forcing. This study explores the possibility that the change of the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO can be an additional, if not alternative, contributor to the shift, using the dataset of Yamada et al. (2010 from a global non-hydrostatic 14-km grid mesh time-slice experiment for a boreal-summer case. Within the case-study framework, we develop the hypothesis that an eastward shift of the high-activity area of the MJO, as manifested itself as the significant intra-seasonal modulation of the enhanced precipitation, is associated with the increased tropical cyclogenesis potential over the North central Pacific by regulating cyclonic relative vorticity and vertical shear. In contrast, the North Indian Ocean and maritime continent undergo relatively diminished genesis potential. An implication is that uncertainty in the future tropical cyclogenesis in some part of the Pacific and other ocean basins could be reduced if projection of the MJO and its connection with the underlying SST environment can be better understood and constrained by the improvement of climate models.

  16. A Future-Based Risk Assessment for the Survivability of Long Range Strike Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-03-01

    Aeronautics and Space Administration ( NASA ) investigated alternative futures to help generate a viable science strategy to address the future aerospace...World American World View ΔTeK World Power Grid Name 1 Global Exponential Dispersed DIGITAL CACOPHONY 2 Global Exponential Concentrated STAR TREK ...The United States has become the “United Kingdom of the Twenty-first Century.” 2.2.3. NASA Study (1997) In the NASA study, the National Research

  17. THEORY OF CREATION AND THE GENETIC INTEGRITY OF THE WORLD – THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY BASIS OF IDEOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. A. Astafyev

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Article describes one of the most difficult problems – the Theory of genetic energy-information unity of the World, according to which the World is the single entity hierarchically organized and directed by the World Creator, appearance of the Creator and creation by Him the Basic Genome of the World (BGW. The integral-dynamic formula of the BGW is described. The World Genome manifests the basic idea of the evolution: it is the code for structural and functional organization and evolution of all entities. The World Genome forms the General Laws of the World. The Theory of genetic energy-information unity of the World is proved the general idea – modern crisis can be transformed by realization of genetic energyinformation unity of the World-Natura-Man.

  18. The Future Revisited: Can Global Learning Still Save the World?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hook, Steven R.

    2018-01-01

    This article provides a twelve-year review of my "OJDLA" article ("Online Journal of Distance Learning Administration," University of West Georgia) on the future of global learning, and updates related to issues such as societal need, technologies, course design, administration affairs, faculty support, and student service.

  19. The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbuthnott, Katherine; Kovats, Sari; Hajat, Shakoor; Falloon, Pete

    2017-01-01

    Background and objectives Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. Methods The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. Results A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on

  20. Changing winds. BTM's world market update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cameron, A.

    2006-01-01

    An update of what has happened in the past year in the worldwide wind energy market, and what is expected to happen in the near future, are given. In 2005, the USA was the world's single biggest wind market, installing 2431 MW. Data are also given for some European and Asian states, and Australasia. The increase in the USA was due to the reintroduction of the Production Tax Credit. Vestas maintained its position as world leader in turbine manufacture but its market share decreased from 34% to 27.9%. Data for all top ten manufacturers are given. In 2005, there were increases of up to 30% in the price of turbines due to an increase in cost of raw materials and increased profit margins in a seller's market. The increase in prices has had a marked impact on offshore systems where the economics were already marginal. Summaries of the future prospects of 15 individual countries are given, together with forecasts for 2011-2015

  1. Warm climates of the past--a lesson for the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunt, D J; Elderfield, H; Pancost, R; Ridgwell, A; Foster, G L; Haywood, A; Kiehl, J; Sagoo, N; Shields, C; Stone, E J; Valdes, P

    2013-10-28

    This Discussion Meeting Issue of the Philosophical Transactions A had its genesis in a Discussion Meeting of the Royal Society which took place on 10-11 October 2011. The Discussion Meeting, entitled 'Warm climates of the past: a lesson for the future?', brought together 16 eminent international speakers from the field of palaeoclimate, and was attended by over 280 scientists and members of the public. Many of the speakers have contributed to the papers compiled in this Discussion Meeting Issue. The papers summarize the talks at the meeting, and present further or related work. This Discussion Meeting Issue asks to what extent information gleaned from the study of past climates can aid our understanding of future climate change. Climate change is currently an issue at the forefront of environmental science, and also has important sociological and political implications. Most future predictions are carried out by complex numerical models; however, these models cannot be rigorously tested for scenarios outside of the modern, without making use of past climate data. Furthermore, past climate data can inform our understanding of how the Earth system operates, and can provide important contextual information related to environmental change. All past time periods can be useful in this context; here, we focus on past climates that were warmer than the modern climate, as these are likely to be the most similar to the future. This introductory paper is not meant as a comprehensive overview of all work in this field. Instead, it gives an introduction to the important issues therein, using the papers in this Discussion Meeting Issue, and other works from all the Discussion Meeting speakers, as exemplars of the various ways in which past climates can inform projections of future climate. Furthermore, we present new work that uses a palaeo constraint to quantitatively inform projections of future equilibrium ice sheet change.

  2. IEA World Energy Outlook 2010-A comment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khatib, Hisham

    2011-01-01

    The World Energy Outlook 2010 is a comprehensive energy report issued by the IEA. It is rewritten annually to reflect the world's changing energy and economy realities; it also introduces new issues relevant to the energy sector. This year it dealt with Caspian Energy, Energy Poverty and Energy Subsidies. WEO is controversial in few aspects; it still promotes a 450 Scenario which has become out of reach. This year however it introduced a more realistic New Policies Scenario which will need a lot of good will and investments to accomplish. Governmental policies are going to chart future energy sector performance; increasingly this is becoming decided by non-OECD countries. A more pragmatic future energy outlook is needed to reflect developing countries priorities for growth and utilization of local resources and how to accommodate this with abatement priorities through energy efficiency measures and technologies. - Research highlights: → We critically review the findings of the IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010. → The main '450 Scenario' is no longer realistic. → Some of the other indicators like the Energy Development Index are also critically reviewed and improvements proposed.

  3. World electricity: will nuclear doubts affect growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baum, Vladimir.

    1986-01-01

    The world has shown a healthy appetite for electricity even during the years of high energy prices. Between 1970 and 1985 worldwide electricity production increased by 92%, from 4,906.7 terawatt hours (TWh) to 9,421.7 TWh (1TWh = 10 9 KWh). In the same period total world energy consumption rose by 44.8% from 220.2 exajoules to 318.8 EJ (1 EJ = 23.88 million tonnes of oil equivalent). The major part of this growth occurred in the 1970s. Over the last five years, from 1980 to 1985, world energy consumption inched forward only by 7.2%, while notwithstanding widespread economic recession, electricity production advanced by 16.1%, with nuclear power responsible for an increasing share. These figures are tabulated and analysed on a worldwide regional basis. The amount of electricity produced by nuclear power plants is given, and the situation in particular countries noted. The projected future electricity demand and future nuclear electricity generating capacity are given. The effect of the Chernobyl incident is assessed. It may prove to be the beginning of the end of nuclear energy or just an unfortunate hiccough in its progress. (U.K.)

  4. Future of Pacific salmon in the face of environmental change: Lessons from one of the world's remaining productive salmon regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoen, Erik R.; Wipfli, Mark S.; Trammell, Jamie; Rinella, Daniel J.; Floyd, Angelica L.; Grunblatt, Jess; McCarthy, Molly D.; Meyer, Benjamin E.; Morton, John M.; Powell, James E.; Prakash, Anupma; Reimer, Matthew N.; Stuefer, Svetlana L.; Toniolo, Horacio; Wells, Brett M.; Witmer, Frank D. W.

    2017-01-01

    Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. face serious challenges from climate and landscape change, particularly in the southern portion of their native range. Conversely, climate warming appears to be allowing salmon to expand northwards into the Arctic. Between these geographic extremes, in the Gulf of Alaska region, salmon are at historically high abundances but face an uncertain future due to rapid environmental change. We examined changes in climate, hydrology, land cover, salmon populations, and fisheries over the past 30–70 years in this region. We focused on the Kenai River, which supports world-famous fisheries but where Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha populations have declined, raising concerns about their future resilience. The region is warming and experiencing drier summers and wetter autumns. The landscape is also changing, with melting glaciers, wetland loss, wildfires, and human development. This environmental transformation will likely harm some salmon populations while benefiting others. Lowland salmon streams are especially vulnerable, but retreating glaciers may allow production gains in other streams. Some fishing communities harvest a diverse portfolio of fluctuating resources, whereas others have specialized over time, potentially limiting their resilience. Maintaining diverse habitats and salmon runs may allow ecosystems and fisheries to continue to thrive amidst these changes.

  5. Preparing Learners for the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga DeJesus

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Book review of “Teaching in a Globally Connected World: Preparing Learners for the Future.” Edited by Ervin F. Sparapani and Pamela L. Ross McClain. Lanham, MD: Hamilton Books, 2016. ISBN: 978-0-7618-6814-9

  6. Critical role of Middle East in world petroleum supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riva, J.P., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    The location, production, and transportation of oil consumed in the world each day is of vital importance to good international relationships. Since most of the remaining world's oil reserves are located in the Persian Gulf, the region's critical role in the future is accordingly over-emphasized

  7. Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadani, Hina; Vyas, Arun

    2011-01-01

    Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia.

  8. Exploration of the Future – a Key to Sustainable Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vatroslav Zovko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Throughout the history people were fascinated and curious about the future. The future was, and still is seen as a key for prosperous development in all aspects of the society. As such, new discipline is developed – future studies.This paper discusses the discipline of future studies and its role in the society and science. Future studies are analyzed in the context of sustainable development. It is argued that future studies and sustainable development are complementary in nature. Based on analysis of most developed countries in the world, that spend the greatest portion of their budget on research, development and science in comparison to the rest of the world, there is a conclusive link between investments in research, development and science, and the recognition of the importance of thinking about the future. Those countries started to formalize their future orientation in many respected research centres and universities through their educational programs and research. That situation poses the need for other, less well off countries, to follow up.

  9. Some comments on the future world energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemperiere, F.

    2011-06-01

    The key problem is the possibility to get mid century the energy necessary for the world development at acceptable cost and impacts with 70 or 80% of renewable energies (essentially solar, wind, hydro and biomass). In 2050 a population of 9 billion (7 in sunny countries) will have probably a gross product 3 or 4 times the present one with a reduced energy intensity; the need of energy may be the double of the present one. The Primary Energy is not an useful reference for most 2050 sources: for instance closing a thermal or nuclear plant supplying 1 TWh and generating 2 TWh more by wind, PV or hydraulics double the Final Energy when reducing the Primary Energy. Presently the Primary Energy is close to 150.000 TWh/year and the Final Energy utilisation to 100.000 TWh. But the present need of Final Energy is lower because many utilizations could use other sources reducing the relevant Final Energy: as examples using PV for cooking in Asia or Africa should divide by over 5 the relevant final energy and using electric cars could divide the Final Energy for transports by 3. The need of Final Energy in 2050 may thus be between 150.000 and 200.000 TWh/year. Anyway the final energy used from many sources will be limited, i.e. a total probably between 60 and 90.000 TWh/year, much under needs of 150.000 to 200.000 TWh/year. There is thus a great uncertainly but it is very likely that the gap will be mid century in the range of 100.000 TWh/year, to be met by coal, wind or solar, essentially through electricity. Electricity will be close to 100.000 TWh/year, with 20.000 from hydro, nuclear, oil and gas and the balance: 80.000 from coal, wind and solar. It is possible to get quite all from wind and solar under 4 conditions: - Coal resources could supply up to 50.000 TWh/year along most of the century at a direct cost lower (before 2040) than solar power by few cents per KWh (at least before 2030 or 2040), i.e. a saving which may be possibly 0,5 or 1% of the gross product. This

  10. Advances in Future Computer and Control Systems v.1

    CERN Document Server

    Lin, Sally; 2012 International Conference on Future Computer and Control Systems(FCCS2012)

    2012-01-01

    FCCS2012 is an integrated conference concentrating its focus on Future Computer and Control Systems. “Advances in Future Computer and Control Systems” presents the proceedings of the 2012 International Conference on Future Computer and Control Systems(FCCS2012) held April 21-22,2012, in Changsha, China including recent research results on Future Computer and Control Systems of researchers from all around the world.

  11. Advances in Future Computer and Control Systems v.2

    CERN Document Server

    Lin, Sally; 2012 International Conference on Future Computer and Control Systems(FCCS2012)

    2012-01-01

    FCCS2012 is an integrated conference concentrating its focus on Future Computer and Control Systems. “Advances in Future Computer and Control Systems” presents the proceedings of the 2012 International Conference on Future Computer and Control Systems(FCCS2012) held April 21-22,2012, in Changsha, China including recent research results on Future Computer and Control Systems of researchers from all around the world.

  12. Difficult to foresee tomorrow's world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2016-01-01

    Some countries like Italy or Kazakhstan have given up nuclear power but others (Viet-Nam, Bangladesh, Egypt, Turkey) have the willingness to enter the nuclear world to sustain their development while complying with their environmental obligations. Others like United Arab Emirates, Belarus have their first reactor being built and other countries like France, Finland, United States, Slovakia, Brazil, Pakistan, India, Taiwan, South-Korea, China, Russia, Ukraine are reinforcing their reactor fleet by building new reactors. A total of 62 reactors is being built throughout the world with 22 in China. New construction of reactors, the dismantling of decommissioned installations and the integration of nuclear power in new economic models make the future brighter for nuclear industry. (A.C.)

  13. Tim Berners-Lee, World Wide Web inventor

    CERN Multimedia

    1998-01-01

    The "Internet, Web, What's next?" conference on 26 June 1998 at CERN: Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web and Director of the W3C, explains how the Web came to be and gave his views on the future.

  14. Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkes, Ben; Defrance, Dimitri; Sultan, Benjamin; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Xuhui

    2018-02-01

    The ability of a region to feed itself in the upcoming decades is an important issue. The West African population is expected to increase significantly in the next 30 years. The responses of crops to short-term climate change is critical to the population and the decision makers tasked with food security. This leads to three questions: how will crop yields change in the near future? What influence will climate change have on crop failures? Which adaptation methods should be employed to ameliorate undesirable changes? An ensemble of near-term climate projections are used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the recent historic period (1986-2005) and a near-term future when global temperatures are 1.5 K above pre-industrial levels to assess the change in yield, yield variability and crop failure rate. Four crop models were used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the historic and future climates. Across the majority of West Africa the maize, millet and sorghum yields are shown to fall. In the regions where yields increase, the variability also increases. This increase in variability increases the likelihood of crop failures, which are defined as yield negative anomalies beyond 1 standard deviation during the historic period. The increasing variability increases the frequency of crop failures across West Africa. The return time of crop failures falls from 8.8, 9.7 and 10.1 years to 5.2, 6.3 and 5.8 years for maize, millet and sorghum respectively. The adoption of heat-resistant cultivars and the use of captured rainwater have been investigated using one crop model as an idealized sensitivity test. The generalized doption of a cultivar resistant to high-temperature stress during flowering is shown to be more beneficial than using rainwater harvesting.

  15. Future Earth Health Knowledge-Action Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrivastava, Paul; Raivio, Kari; Kasuga, Fumiko; Tewksbury, Joshua; Haines, Andy; Daszak, Peter

    Future Earth is an international research platform providing the knowledge and support to accelerate our transformations to a sustainable world. Future Earth 2025 Vision identified eight key focal challenges, and challenge #6 is to "Improve human health by elucidating, and finding responses to, the complex interactions amongst environmental change, pollution, pathogens, disease vectors, ecosystem services, and people's livelihoods, nutrition and well-being." Several studies, including the Rockefeller Foundation/Lancet Planetary Health Commission Report of 2015, the World Health Organization/Convention on Biological Diversity report and those by oneHEALTH (former ecoHEALTH), have been conducted over the last 30 years. Knowledge-Action Networks (KANs) are the frameworks to apply Future Earth principles of research to related activities that respond to societal challenges. Future Earth Health Knowledge-Action Network will connect health researchers with other natural and social scientists, health and environmental policy professionals and leaders in government, the private sector and civil society to provide research-based solutions based on better, integrated understanding of the complex interactions between a changing global environment and human health. It will build regional capacity to enhance resilience, protect the environment and avert serious threats to health and will also contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goals. In addition to the initial partners, Future Earth Health Knowledge-Action Network will further nourish collaboration with other on-going, leading research programmes outside Future Earth, by encouraging them in active participation.

  16. The energy future in the world at the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frot, J.

    2006-04-01

    After a presentation of the world context of the energy consumption (the growth, the petroleum and the natural gas last, the greenhouse effect gases impacts on the climate), and the today research and development domains in the energy sector (petroleum, gas, generation IV nuclear reactors, carbon sequestration, renewable energies, hydrogen, energy storage), the author examines, using 4 scenario, the margins of action, the energy efficiency, the Gross Domestic Product de-materialization and the costs. Then he discusses the hopes and problems in the domains of the transports and the carbon sequestration. A special attention is devoted to the energy efficiency importance. (A.L.B.)

  17. Detroit, 22-27 September 1974: Report on ninth world energy conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1974-01-01

    The acceleration of world demand for energy during the last forty years has led to a projection of future needs far in excess of present capacity, and one which threatens exhaustion of today's conventional sources at some future time. Coupled with this premise is the realization of two inter-related facts: inadequate, uneconomic sources of energy cripple a man, his nation, and his world and lead to insecurity, famine and ignorance; on the other hand, excessive, uncontrolled use of energy sources leads to wastage of resources, pollution and human misery that likewise respects no national boundaries. These dominating concerns led to the selection of the main theme of the Ninth World Energy Conference - 'The Economic and Environmental Challenges of Future Energy Requirements'. This theme was broadly broken down into six main categories: energy needs, sources of energy, energy conversion and utilization, conservation of energy, economics and environmental considerations. A total of 229 formal papers were considered by the several thousand participants who represented more than 60 countries and a number of international organizations at the Conference

  18. Detroit, 22-27 September 1974: Report on ninth world energy conference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1974-07-01

    The acceleration of world demand for energy during the last forty years has led to a projection of future needs far in excess of present capacity, and one which threatens exhaustion of today's conventional sources at some future time. Coupled with this premise is the realization of two inter-related facts: inadequate, uneconomic sources of energy cripple a man, his nation, and his world and lead to insecurity, famine and ignorance; on the other hand, excessive, uncontrolled use of energy sources leads to wastage of resources, pollution and human misery that likewise respects no national boundaries. These dominating concerns led to the selection of the main theme of the Ninth World Energy Conference - 'The Economic and Environmental Challenges of Future Energy Requirements'. This theme was broadly broken down into six main categories: energy needs, sources of energy, energy conversion and utilization, conservation of energy, economics and environmental considerations. A total of 229 formal papers were considered by the several thousand participants who represented more than 60 countries and a number of international organizations at the Conference.

  19. Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N., comp. Bengston

    2012-01-01

    These papers, presented in a special session at the International Symposium on Society and Resource Management in June 2011, explore the transdisciplinary field of futures research and its application to long-range environmental analysis, planning, and policy. Futures research began in the post-World War II era and has emerged as a mature research field. Although the...

  20. The World Anti-Doping Agency and the challenges for political steering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagner, Ulrik

    2008-01-01

    Article submitted March 2007 for the Graduate Paper Award of the International Sociology of Sport Association. Presented as winner at "Sport in a Global World - past, present, future" the first joint world conference of ISSA & ISHPES at the University of Copenhagen, July 31st - August 5th 2007....

  1. One-world chemistry and systems thinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matlin, Stephen A.; Mehta, Goverdhan; Hopf, Henning; Krief, Alain

    2016-05-01

    The practice and overarching mission of chemistry need a major overhaul in order to be fit for purpose in the twenty-first century and beyond. The concept of 'one-world' chemistry takes a systems approach that brings together many factors, including ethics and sustainability, that are critical to the future role of chemistry.

  2. THE FUTURE OF W. WARREN WAGAR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen K. Sanderson

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In his fascinat ing book "A Short History of the Future," published in 1992, W. Warren Wagar lays out a futuristic vision of the world over the next two hundred years that draws extensively on Inunanuel Wallerstein' s world-system theory. In the year 2001 began the last of the great Kondratieff upswings of the capitalist world-economy. That economy had come to be increasingly dominated by a few giant corporations, so that by 2015 12 "megacorps" had assumed control of the world-economy and thegovernments of the major capitalist powers. The Kondratieff upswing ran its course by the early 2030s and then a devastating worldwide depression set in, the lowest point of which was reached in 2043.

  3. Estimating future energy use and CO2 emissions of the world's cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Shweta; Kennedy, Chris

    2015-01-01

    This paper develops a tool for estimating energy-related CO 2 emissions from the world's cities based on regression models. The models are developed considering climatic (heating-degree-days) and urban design (land area per person) independent variables. The tool is applied on 3646 urban areas for estimating impacts on urban emissions of a) global transitioning to Electric Vehicles, b) urban density change and c) IPCC climate change scenarios. Results show that urban density decline can lead to significant increase in energy emissions (upto 346% in electricity & 428% in transportation at 2% density decline by 2050). Among the IPCC climate scenarios tested, A1B is the most effective in reducing growth of emissions (upto 12% in electricity & 35% in heating). The tool can further be improved by including more data in the regression models along with inclusion of other relevant emissions and climatic variables. - Highlights: • A tool for estimation of energy related emissions for urban areas is developed. • Heating degree days and urbanized area per capita are driving variables for urban energy consumption. • Global transition to EVs can only mitigate transportation emissions if GHG intensity of electricity grid is reduced. • Density decline of urban areas can lead to exponential increase of energy related emissions. • Climate change scenarios can slightly reduce the growth of energy related emissions increase by 2050. - A tool for estimation of global impact of urban systems on energy related emissions was developed that can simulate the impact of future scenarios (climate change, urban design etc)

  4. A World 2010: A Decline of Superpower Influence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-07-10

    mathematics o Environmental: terrestrial, oceanographics, atmospheric, space o Engineering: electronics, civil, mechanical, metallurgical o Life: biological ...while Yoneji Masuda (The Information Society As Postindustrial Society, Washington: World Future Society, 1981) and John Naisbitt ( Megatrends : Ten New

  5. Nuclear Power Plants in the World

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    The Japan Atomic Industrial Forum (JAIF) used every year to summarize a trend survey on the private nuclear power plants in the world in a shape of the 'Developmental trends on nuclear power plants in the world'. In this report, some data at the end of 1999 was made up on bases of answers on questionnaires from 72 electric companies in 31 nations and regions in the world by JAIF. This report is comprised of 19 items, and contains generating capacity of the plants; current status of Japan; trends of generating capacity of operating the plants, the plant orders and generating capacity of the plants; world nuclear capacity by reactor type; location of the plants; the plants in the world; and so forth. And, it also has some survey results on the 'Liberalization of electric power markets and nuclear power generation' such as some 70% of respondents in nuclear power for future option, gas-thermal power seen as power source with most to gain from liberalization, merits on nuclear power generation (environmental considerations and supply stability), most commonly voiced concern about new plant orders in poor economy, and so forth. (G.K.)

  6. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

    2016-01-01

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change. PMID:26879640

  7. Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Marshall B; Miguel, Edward; Satyanath, Shanker; Dykema, John A; Lobell, David B

    2009-12-08

    Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures.

  8. Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken

    2017-12-06

    Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

  9. Future role of Gulf oil in world energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eltony, M.N.

    1998-01-01

    The view that there will be a growing dependence on oil from the Gulf countries is shared by a great number of oil market analysts. This view is based on the fact that Gulf countries dominate the global oil reserves. Energy analyst argue that as the world demand for oil continues to grow driven largely by the growth in developing countries' consumption coupled with constrained non-OPEC supply, the end result will be that the call on Gulf oil will grow substantially. In summary, this paper has challenged the view of growing dependence on oil from the Gulf using available information in conjunction with reasonable and fairly plausible arguments. The aim was to point out to the GCC member counties the danger of relying on these views in shaping their economic policies and in setting their oil market strategies. They may run the ultimate risk of being left with huge oil reserves that no one wants. (orig.)

  10. The role of horizontal thermal advection in regulating wintertime mean and extreme temperatures over the central United States during the past and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, F.; Vavrus, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    Horizontal temperature advection plays an especially prominent role in affecting winter climate over continental interiors, where both climatological conditions and extreme weather are strongly regulated by transport of remote air masses. Central North America is one such region, and it experienced a major cold-air outbreak (CAO) a few years ago that some have related to amplified Arctic warming. Despite the known importance of dynamics in shaping the winter climate of this sector and the potential for climate change to modify heat transport, limited attention has been paid to the regional impact of thermal advection. Here, we use a reanalysis product and output from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble to quantify the roles of zonal and meridional temperature advection over the central U. S. during winter, both in the late 20th and 21st centuries. We frame our findings as a "tug of war" between opposing influences of the two advection components and between these dynamical forcings vs. thermodynamic changes under greenhouse warming. For example, Arctic amplification leads to much warmer polar air masses, causing a moderation of cold-air advection into the central U. S., yet the model also simulates a wavier mean circulation and stronger northerly flow during CAOs, favoring lower regional temperatures. We also compare the predominant warming effect of zonal advection and overall cooling effect of meridional temperature advection as an additional tug of war. During both historical and future periods, zonal temperature advection is stronger than meridional advection over the Central U. S. The model simulates a future weakening of both zonal and meridional temperature advection, such that westerly flow provides less warming and northerly flow less cooling. On the most extreme warm days in the past and future, both zonal and meridional temperature advection have positive (warming) contributions. On the most extreme cold days, meridional cold air advection

  11. World trends from 2017

    OpenAIRE

    Janković Slobodan

    2016-01-01

    Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing...

  12. World gas supply-demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rushby, I.L.

    1996-01-01

    The rapid growth in demand for natural gas from a global perspective is documented in this paper. Low prices compared to other fuels and a return to normal winter temperatures is argued to be the cause of this increase in consumption. Natural gas production and prices for 1995 are discussed and forecasts made for future years, in particular the prospects for LNG in Asia. Data on energy growth and gas specific information in world markets are included. (UK)

  13. The International Energy Agency's world energy outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Dell, S.

    1996-01-01

    The 1996 edition of the World Energy Outlook to 2010 was reviewed. An overview of the energy projections was provided based on assumptions about economic growth and energy prices, geological potential, technological developments, the availability of traditional fuels outside the OECD and the future preferences of energy users. Demand vs. price movements were modelled, based on 'capacity constraints' and 'energy saving ' scenarios. Three major conclusions derived from the projections were: (1) world primary energy demand will grow steadily as it has over the past two decades, (2) fossil fuels will account for 90 per cent of total primary energy demand in 2010, and (3) a structural shift in the shares of different regions in world energy demand is likely to occur, i.e., the OECD share will fall in favor of the share of the ROW (rest of the world). 4 tabs., 9 figs

  14. Energy for the world economy of tomorrow. Energie fuer die Weltwirtschaft von morgen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennewitz, J

    1984-01-01

    Will the world's energy resources suffice to secure the world economy's supply in the face of the continuing growth of the world population. This question is answered. The development of the world population shows patterns which make possible an estimation of the future populations of industrial and developing countries. The rise of the primary energy carriers is described. An analysis of the reserves and resources concludes that, if energy policies remain unchanged, reserves will be exhausted by the middle of the next century. In this connection, the introduction of atomic energy according to present plans and the possibilities of energy sources which may be re-generated are considered. The availability of liquid energy carriers based on petroleum will probably become a decisive bottleneck for the world's energy supply before the end of this century. The danger of coming to an energy disaster in our life-time can be averted. Possibilities for securing the energy supply in the future are proposed. In this connection, the positive effects on unemployment are spelled out. The idea of 'World Energy Management' is discussed.

  15. Nuclear energy facing the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laue, H.J.

    1982-01-01

    In conjunction with the 25th anniversary of the establishment of the IAEA, the contribution that nuclear energy can make to future world energy requirements is discussed and nuclear power generation statistics examined with especial reference to data on capacity and outages. (U.K.)

  16. A nuclear-weapon-free world and true disarmament

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salvini, G.

    1999-01-01

    This preliminary note about is important to consider when discussing hopes of achieving a nuclear-weapon-free world. Without a serious effort to establish intelligent, powerful bodies to control and judge the behavior of the nations on Earth, whatever they future weapons may be, the objective to reach a nuclear-weapon-free world may even succeed, but it is not enough to stop wars and death. Even more than that: if taken alone, as the 'Great Way', it could prove negative, for it could slow down the general effort to achieve peace on out planet. A nuclear-weapon-free world is of course a very good idea but two points must be discussed: how to achieve the nuclear-weapon-free world; and what will happen afterwards. Some considerations on the second point are made

  17. Clean coal technology: coal's link to the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegel, J.S.

    1992-01-01

    Coal, the world's most abundant fossil fuel, is very important to the world's economy. It represents about 70% of the world's fossil energy reserves. It produces about 27% of the world's primary energy, 33% of the world's electricity, and it is responsible for about $21 billion in coal trade - in 1990, 424 million tons were traded on the international market. And, most importantly, because of its wide and even distribution throughout the world, and because of its availability, coal is not subject to the monopolistic practices of other energy options. How coal can meet future fuel demand in an economical, efficient and environmentally responsive fashion, with particular reference to the new technologies and their US applications is discussed. (author). 6 figs

  18. Digital imaging - future visions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanford, L.

    1993-01-01

    The reality of a filmless future in medicine is closer in the UK than in the US. The initiative with digital data processing, however, is not. Despite the glowing promises in the literature of such visionware', there is as yet no filmless system anywhere in the World. This article examines research in this field. (Author)

  19. Health effects of a warmer climate - a knowledge review; Haelsopaaverkan av ett varmare klimat - en kunskapsoeversikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rockloev, Joacim; Hurtig, Anna-Karin; Forsberg, Bertil [Umeaa Univ. (SE). Dept. of Public Health and Clinical Medicine

    2008-01-15

    Global warming has caused changes that can already be seen and that motivates considerations of the possible adaptation measures needed to protect people and public health. Expert bodies such as the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now conduct model simulations on how the world's climate is expected to change depending on, for example, the emission of greenhouse gases. The Swedish SMHI has provided scenarios for how the future climate in Sweden may develop. These assume an increase in the winter temperature of 3-8 deg C in winter and 1-5 deg C during summer, compared to the period 1961-1990. In addition, these scenarios indicate increased precipitation especially in northern Sweden, a greater risk of drought in Skaane during summer, as well as an increased risk of extreme events such as storms, heavy rainfall and heat waves. The climate change may affect health and its determinants in a number of different ways. The effects may be direct, as in extreme weather conditions, and also indirect, such as the influence of changes in climate and the environment on the spread of infectious diseases as well as the far-reaching effects of changes in other parts of the world. The aim of this overview report is to briefly present our current understanding of how health risks and public health may be affected. The presentations of potential consequences are partly built using knowledge of the associations between climate and health in various regions to draw analogies for areas expected to undergo changes that will make their climate more similar to current conditions in other regions. Distribution of vector-borne diseases can be determined by the type of climate a certain mosquito can survive. In the future we may face outbreaks of diseases that are new to us. Another way of making predictions is to use the observations of how health effects relate to weather variations in one place, for example, temperature fluctuations. In this regard we already

  20. Health effects of a warmer climate - a knowledge review; Haelsopaaverkan av ett varmare klimat - en kunskapsoeversikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rockloev, Joacim; Hurtig, Anna-Karin; Forsberg, Bertil (Umeaa Univ. (SE). Dept. of Public Health and Clinical Medicine)

    2008-01-15

    Global warming has caused changes that can already be seen and that motivates considerations of the possible adaptation measures needed to protect people and public health. Expert bodies such as the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now conduct model simulations on how the world's climate is expected to change depending on, for example, the emission of greenhouse gases. The Swedish SMHI has provided scenarios for how the future climate in Sweden may develop. These assume an increase in the winter temperature of 3-8 deg C in winter and 1-5 deg C during summer, compared to the period 1961-1990. In addition, these scenarios indicate increased precipitation especially in northern Sweden, a greater risk of drought in Skaane during summer, as well as an increased risk of extreme events such as storms, heavy rainfall and heat waves. The climate change may affect health and its determinants in a number of different ways. The effects may be direct, as in extreme weather conditions, and also indirect, such as the influence of changes in climate and the environment on the spread of infectious diseases as well as the far-reaching effects of changes in other parts of the world. The aim of this overview report is to briefly present our current understanding of how health risks and public health may be affected. The presentations of potential consequences are partly built using knowledge of the associations between climate and health in various regions to draw analogies for areas expected to undergo changes that will make their climate more similar to current conditions in other regions. Distribution of vector-borne diseases can be determined by the type of climate a certain mosquito can survive. In the future we may face outbreaks of diseases that are new to us. Another way of making predictions is to use the observations of how health effects relate to weather variations in one place, for example, temperature fluctuations. In this regard we

  1. A world class nuclear research reactor complex for South Africa's nuclear future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keshaw, Jeetesh

    2008-01-01

    South Africa recently made public its rather ambitious goals pertaining to nuclear energy developments in a Draft Policy and Strategy issued for public comment. Not much attention was given to an important tool for nuclear energy research and development, namely a well equipped and maintained research reactor, which on its own does not do justice to its potential, unless it is fitted with all the ancillaries and human resources as most first world countries have. In South Africa's case it is suggested to establish at least one Nuclear Energy Research and Development Centre at such a research reactor, where almost all nuclear energy related research can be carried out on par with some of the best in the world. The purpose of this work is to propose how this could be done, and motivate why it is important that it be done with great urgency, and with full involvement of young professionals, if South Africa wishes to face up to the challenges mentioned in the Draft Strategy and Policy. (authors)

  2. Hydrology for a Changing World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    To support critical decisions related to water quantity, quality, and hazard mitigation, surface water hydrologists and water resources engineers have historically invoked the assumption that hydrologic systems are stationary; variables such as discharge or solute fluxes were assumed to have a mean, a variance, and other statistical properties that did not change over time. Today, the drivers of non-stationarity such as urbanization, groundwater depletion, engineered land-drainage systems, application of nutrients at the land surface, new farming technologies, and changes in greenhouse gas forcing of the global atmosphere have perturbed hydrologic systems enough so that this assumption must be challenged. Understanding of the non-stationarity in hydrologic systems is important for at least two major reasons: (1) Society needs insights on the hydrologic conditions of the future as a basis for planning, operating, and regulating water resources in the future. Water resources engineers cannot depend solely on records of the past to design and operate in the future. However, simply substituting model projections for historic records, without evaluation of the ability of those models to produce realistic projections, is not acceptable. (2) Non-stationarity provides a framework to identify emerging water resource issues and evaluate our society's success in achieving its environmental goals. The study of hydrologic change is our greatest challenge. We must learn how best to blend our knowledge of the past with our projections of the future. In this non-stationary world, observing systems and networks become even more critically important and our models must be tested using historical records to ensure that they produce useful projections of our future. In the words of Ralph Keeling, "The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it, and this means tracking the changes decade after decade, and poring over the records." Walter Langbein knew the

  3. Growth tradeoffs associated with thermotolerant symbionts in the coral Pocillopora damicornis are lost in warmer oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunning, R.; Gillette, P.; Capo, T.; Galvez, K.; Baker, A. C.

    2015-03-01

    The growth and survival of reef corals are influenced by their symbiotic algal partners ( Symbiodinium spp.), which may be flexible in space and time. Tradeoffs among partnerships exist such that corals with thermotolerant symbionts (e.g., clade D) resist bleaching but grow more slowly, making the long-term ecosystem-level impacts of different host-symbiont associations uncertain. However, much of this uncertainty is due to limited data regarding these tradeoffs and particularly how they are mediated by the environment. To address this knowledge gap, we measured growth and survival of Pocillopora damicornis with thermally sensitive (clade C) or tolerant (clade D) symbionts at three temperatures over 18-55 weeks. Warming reduced coral growth overall, but altered the tradeoffs associated with symbiont type. While clade D corals grew 35-40 % slower than clade C corals at cooler temperatures (26 °C), warming of 1.5-3 °C reduced and eliminated this growth disadvantage. These results suggest that although warmer oceans will negatively impact corals, clade D may enhance survival at no cost to growth relative to clade C. Understanding these genotype-environment interactions can help improve modeling efforts and conservation strategies for reefs under global climate change.

  4. Analysis of the predictive qualities of betting odds and FIFA World Ranking: evidence from the 2006, 2010 and 2014 Football World Cups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wunderlich, Fabian; Memmert, Daniel

    2016-12-01

    The present study aims to investigate the ability of a new framework enabling to derive more detailed model-based predictions from ranking systems. These were compared to predictions from the bet market including data from the World Cups 2006, 2010, and 2014. The results revealed that the FIFA World Ranking has essentially improved its predictive qualities compared to the bet market since the mode of calculation was changed in 2006. While both predictors were useful to obtain accurate predictions in general, the world ranking was able to outperform the bet market significantly for the World Cup 2014 and when the data from the World Cups 2010 and 2014 were pooled. Our new framework can be extended in future research to more detailed prediction tasks (i.e., predicting the final scores of a match or the tournament progress of a team).

  5. The world economic development with the ISER-PIUS for developing and developed countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakabayashi, Hiroaki

    1987-01-01

    Nuclear power as a base for the world economic development has, unfortunately, been posing some potential risks including excessive radiation and radioactivity releases from the TMI-2 and the Chernobyl-4 as well as the future risks of nuclear waste management. On the other hand, it is a fact that nuclear power is already being used substantially as an economical energy option throughout the world. Therefore, the ISER-PIUS is now envissaged to be used eventually as safe and economical power source to be employed widely in the world. The present economic conditions and future economic development in Indonesia, taken as an example of less developed country, are described briefly. It is insisted that the policy of nuclear power introduction into a less developed country is neither economical nor realistic. More feasible seems a system of domestically designed and developed inherently safe reactor like ISER-PIUS. An analysis is also made of the future potential of such reactors in advanced countries in terms of the future of ISER-PIUS. It is concluded that cheap electricity and heat are needed for the economic development in less developed nations and for the maintenance of the economy level now attained by developed countries as well. International collaboration for the ISER-PIUS development will be a vehecle for the world-wide economic development in the next century. (Nogami, K.)

  6. 16th World energy congress - No all clear signal; 16. Weltenergiekongress: Keine Entwarnung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brabeck, A.

    1995-11-07

    The future organisation of the global energy supply was the central theme of the 16th Congress of the World Energy Council, which was held from 8 to 13 October 1995 in Tokyo. Under the basic theme ``Energy for our common world - what will the future ask for us`` ecological and development policy aspects were also included in the discussion of energy policy. Because of these relationships and the importance of the subject also for the future of the German mining industry Glueckauf is reproducing below two publications issued in connection with the World Energy Conference. (orig.) [Deutsch] Die zukuenftige Gestaltung der globalen Energieversorgung war Kernthema des 16. Kongresses des Weltenergierates, der vom 8. bis 13. Oktober 1995 in Tokio stattfand. Unter dem Leitmotiv ``Energy for our common world - what will the future ask of us`` wurden gerade auch oekologische und entwicklungspolitische Aspekte in die energiepolitische Diskussion einbezogen. Aufgrund dieser Zusammenhaenge und der Bedeutung dieser Thematik auch fuer die Zukunft der deutschen Bergbauindustrie, gibt GLUeCKAUF nachfolgend zwei Veroeffentlichungen zur Weltenergiekonferenz im Wortlaut wieder: Zum einen eine Presseinformation des Deutschen Nationalen Komitees des Weltenergierates vom 12. Oktober 1995 mit dem Titel ``Fortschritte; aber noch keine Entwarnung`` und zum anderen ein Statement von Dipl.-Kfm. Guenter Meyhoefer, Vorstandsvorsitzender des Eschweiler Bergwerks-Vereins AG, Herzogenrath, Generalbevollmaechtigter der Ruhrkohle AG, Essen, und Vizepraesident des Gesamtverbands des deutschen Steinkohlenbergbaus, Essen. (orig.)

  7. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  8. At the threshold to a new world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeer, K.W.

    1993-01-01

    The rapidly declining ecological health of the globe and its contributing factors are reviewed, and a global health index is defined that helps visualizing approaching danger points. The close relationship between ecologically declining health, the need for more energy per capita world-wide and the economic growth as a driving force are discussed. Large scale reforestation to counteract greenhouse gas imbalance is described as temporary aid to buy time and avoid instabilities in weather patterns until more permanent solutions can be in place that permit further economic growth of the total gross world product. The only feasible solution that does not mortgage future generations with yet unsolved, and possibly unsolvable problems is the massive deployment of solar conversion equipment. The use of photovoltaic panels is a well established technology and is described as a totally benign solution that, in conjunction with hydrogen storage, can be used as the dominant future source of energy on earth

  9. Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial era

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Parkes

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The ability of a region to feed itself in the upcoming decades is an important issue. The West African population is expected to increase significantly in the next 30 years. The responses of crops to short-term climate change is critical to the population and the decision makers tasked with food security. This leads to three questions: how will crop yields change in the near future? What influence will climate change have on crop failures? Which adaptation methods should be employed to ameliorate undesirable changes? An ensemble of near-term climate projections are used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the recent historic period (1986–2005 and a near-term future when global temperatures are 1.5 K above pre-industrial levels to assess the change in yield, yield variability and crop failure rate. Four crop models were used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the historic and future climates. Across the majority of West Africa the maize, millet and sorghum yields are shown to fall. In the regions where yields increase, the variability also increases. This increase in variability increases the likelihood of crop failures, which are defined as yield negative anomalies beyond 1 standard deviation during the historic period. The increasing variability increases the frequency of crop failures across West Africa. The return time of crop failures falls from 8.8, 9.7 and 10.1 years to 5.2, 6.3 and 5.8 years for maize, millet and sorghum respectively. The adoption of heat-resistant cultivars and the use of captured rainwater have been investigated using one crop model as an idealized sensitivity test. The generalized doption of a cultivar resistant to high-temperature stress during flowering is shown to be more beneficial than using rainwater harvesting.

  10. The future of the brain essays by the world's leading neuroscientists

    CERN Document Server

    Freeman, Jeremy

    2015-01-01

    An unprecedented look at the quest to unravel the mysteries of the human brain, The Future of the Brain takes readers to the absolute frontiers of science. Original essays by leading researchers such as Christof Koch, George Church, Olaf Sporns, and May-Britt and Edvard Moser describe the spectacular technological advances that will enable us to map the more than eighty-five billion neurons in the brain, as well as the challenges that lie ahead in understanding the anticipated deluge of data and the prospects for building working simulations of the human brain. A must-read for anyone trying to understand ambitious new research programs such as the Obama administration's BRAIN Initiative and the European Union’s Human Brain Project, The Future of the Brain sheds light on the breathtaking implications of brain science for medicine, psychiatry, and even human consciousness itself.

  11. Thermal responses from repeated exposures to severe cold with intermittent warmer temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozaki, H; Enomoto-Koshimizu, H; Tochihara, Y; Nakamura, K

    1998-09-01

    This study was conducted to evaluate physiological reaction and manual performance during exposure to warm (30 degrees C) and cool (10 degrees C) environments after exposure to very low temperatures (-25 degrees C). Furthermore, this experiment was conducted to study whether it is desirable to remove cold-protective jackets in warmer rooms after severe cold exposure. Eight male students remained in an extremely cold room for 20 min, after which they transferred into either the warm room or the cool room for 20 min. This pattern was repeated three times, and the total cold exposure time was 60 min. In the warm and cool rooms, the subjects either removed their cold-protective jackets (Condition A), or wore them continuously (Condition B). Rectal temperature, skin temperatures, manual performance, blood pressure, thermal, comfort and pain sensations were measured during the experiment. The effects of severe cold on almost all measurements in the cool (10 degrees C) environment were greater than those in the warm (30 degrees C) environment under both clothing conditions. The effects of severe cold on all measurements under Condition A except rectal temperature and toe skin temperature were significantly greater than those under Condition B in the cool environment but, not at all differences between Condition A and Condition B in the warm environments were significant. It was recognized that to remove cold-protective jackets in the cool room (10 degrees C) after severe cold exposure promoted the effects of severe cold. When rewarming in the warm resting room (30 degrees C), the physiological and psychological responses and manual performance were not influenced by the presence or absence of cold-protective clothing. These results suggest that it is necessary for workers to make sure to rewarm in the warm room outside of the cold storage and continue to wear cold-protective clothing in the cool room.

  12. VACCINES AND IMMUNIZATION: WORLD SITUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.H. Brundtland

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The last issue of the report «vaccines and immunization: world situation» stresses considerable success in immunization at the global level since the mid 90 s — completely total eradication of poliomyelitis across the world, as well as the drastic reduction of the new measles and tetanus cases among mothers and newborns in some poor countries. The report also briefly describes the progress in the development and implementation of the new life saving vaccines, which may save millions of lives annually. The authors have explained some of the reasons, why the global community should invest in immunization, as well as the perspectives for the use of vaccines and immunization in future.Key words: vaccine, immunization, children.

  13. Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-11-15

    This WEC study is bottom-up regional view of our energy future focusing on policies to ensure energy sustainability. Experts from five regions and all energy domains worked together to produce four different scenarios to predict how differing levels of cooperation and government involvement would affect the energy future of the world.

  14. Assessing the role of coal in the world energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hibbard Junior, W.R.

    1981-01-01

    Ten recent extensive studies of long range energy futures were evaluated and a consensus of findings developed. Progress toward the consensus was determined. In the next 20 years the United States will need all of the coal, nuclear, oil shale and tar sands that public consensus and the legislatures will permit. Concerns include the cost and availability of OPEC oil, energy efficiency, acid rain, and carbon dioxide build-up. (Author) [pt

  15. OBSERVATIONS (NEW AND OLD ON THE ARMED FORCES IN THE THE ATLANTIC WORLD: CURRENT AND FUTURE THREATS AND CHALLENGES IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FREDERICK M. NUNN

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Confrontations with threats and challenges to the existence of governments and societies have marked the flow of time throughout history. Present and future threats associated, as they are, with historical and traditional challenge are, in many places, of such complexity that they already require new forms of relations between civilian authorities and the leadership of professional institutions dedicated to defense and security. These new relations will have to be based on an understanding of the processes of democratization and globalization as much as on the complex nature of conflicts that affect the security, sovereignty and stability of 21st century nation-states. As formidable as they appear, these threats and challenges may be considered current reiterations of others that mark our histories. In the Atlantic World, nowhere more so than in Latin America, the literature of the military profession has always demonstrated the recognition of lessons of the past applied to problems of the presentation aid in preparation for the future. A principal reason for this is that said literature is in and of itself the product of civil-military collaborations.

  16. Breeding in a warmer world. Evolution of avian breeding time under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gienapp, P.

    2005-01-01

    Het ziet ernaar uit dat de koolmees in Nederland zich niet op tijd zal kunnen aanpassen aan de gevolgen van de klimaatverandering, concludeert de bioloog Phillip Gienapp. Omdat het hoofdvoedsel van hun jongen uit rupsen bestaat, is het relatieve tijdstip van broeden ten opzichte van de rupsen

  17. Planting seeds for the future of food

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broun, Pierre; Cakmak, Ismail; Condon, Liam; Fedoroff, Nina; Gonzalez‐Valero, Juan; Graham, Ian; Lewis, Josette; Moloney, Maurice; Oniang'o, Ruth K; Sanginga, Nteranya; Shewry, Peter; Roulin, Anne

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The health and wellbeing of future generations will depend on humankind's ability to deliver sufficient nutritious food to a world population in excess of 9 billion. Feeding this many people by 2050 will require science‐based solutions that address sustainable agricultural productivity and enable healthful dietary patterns in a more globally equitable way. This topic was the focus of a multi‐disciplinary international conference hosted by Nestlé in June 2015, and provides the inspiration for the present article. The conference brought together a diverse range of expertise and organisations from the developing and industrialised world, all with a common interest in safeguarding the future of food. This article provides a snapshot of three of the recurring topics that were discussed during this conference: soil health, plant science and the future of farming practice. Crop plants and their cultivation are the fundamental building blocks for a food secure world. Whether these are grown for food or feed for livestock, they are the foundation of food and nutrient security. Many of the challenges for the future of food will be faced where the crops are grown: on the farm. Farmers need to plant the right crops and create the right conditions to maximise productivity (yield) and quality (e.g. nutritional content), whilst maintaining the environment, and earning a living. New advances in science and technology can provide the tools and know‐how that will, together with a more entrepreneurial approach, help farmers to meet the inexorable demand for the sustainable production of nutritious foods for future generations. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. PMID:26619956

  18. The Position of Sub-Saharan Countries in the World Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baumgartner Boris

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Most of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa belong to the most underdeveloped and poorest countries in the world economy. This region consists of forty-nine countries but at world GDP, world export, world import and inflow of foreign direct investment share only by small percent. There are some positive facts in the recent history of sub- Saharan Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa has grown faster than the world economy in the past ten years. The predictions are also positive. There is an expectation of another growth till the 2020. If the sub-Saharan countries want to keep the growth in the future they have to invest to infrastructure, in educational system, in research and science to make their economies more competitive.

  19. The World Health Organization World Mental Health Survey Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Ronald C; Haro, Josep Maria; Heeringa, Steven G; Pennell, Beth-Ellen; Ustün, T Bedirhan

    2006-01-01

    To present an overview of the World Health Organization World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Initiative. The discussion draws on knowledge gleaned from the authors' participation as principals in WMH. WMH has carried out community epidemiological surveys in more than two dozen countries with more than 200,000 completed interviews. Additional surveys are in progress. Clinical reappraisal studies embedded in WMH surveys have been used to develop imputation rules to adjust prevalence estimates for within- and between-country variation in accuracy. WMH interviews include detailed information about sub-threshold manifestations to address the problem of rigid categorical diagnoses not applying equally to all countries. Investigations are now underway of targeted substantive issues. Despite inevitable limitations imposed by existing diagnostic systems and variable expertise in participating countries, WMH has produced an unprecedented amount of high-quality data on the general population cross-national epidemiology of mental disorders. WMH collaborators are in thoughtful and subtle investigations of cross-national variation in validity of diagnostic assessments and a wide range of important substantive topics. Recognizing that WMH is not definitive, finally, insights from this round of surveys are being used to carry out methodological studies aimed at improving the quality of future investigations.

  20. Changes in the world rivers' discharge projected from an updated high resolution dataset of current and future climate zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santini, Monia; di Paola, Arianna

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, an updated global map of the current climate zoning and of its projections, according to the Köppen-Geiger classification, is first provided. The map at high horizontal resolution (0.5° × 0.5°), representative of the current (i.e. 1961-2005) conditions, is based on the Climate Research Unit dataset holding gridded series of historical observed temperature and precipitation, while projected conditions rely on the simulated series, for the same variables, by the General Circulation Model CMCC-CM. Modeled variables were corrected for their bias and then projections of climate zoning were generated for the medium term (2006-2050) and long term (2056-2100) future periods, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Results show that Equatorial and Arid climates will spread at the expenses of Snow and Polar climates, with the Warm Temperate experiencing more moderate increase. Maps of climate zones are valuable for a wide range of studies on climate change and its impacts, especially those regarding the water cycle that is strongly regulated by the combined conditions of precipitation and temperature. As example of large scale hydrological applications, in this work we tested and implemented a spatial statistical procedure, the geographically weighted regression among climate zones' surface and mean annual discharge (MAD) at hydrographic basin level, to quantify likely changes in MAD for the main world rivers monitored through the Global Runoff Data Center database. The selected river basins are representative of more than half of both global superficial freshwater resources and world's land area. Globally, a decrease in MAD is projected both in the medium term and long term, while spatial differences highlight how some areas require efforts to avoid consequences of amplified water scarcity, while other areas call for strategies to take the opportunity from the expected increase in water availability. Also the fluctuations of trends between the

  1. World Energy Outlook 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-11-10

    What will the credit crunch and economic recession mean for energy markets? Will investment cutbacks lead us towards a supply crunch a few years down the line? How could the transition to a clean global energy system be financed? These are just three of the questions that World Energy Outlook 2009 addresses. Incorporating recent developments in energy and environmental policy, this year's Outlook draws on the latest data reflecting the impact of the global financial and economic crisis and takes into account ongoing gyrations in energy prices. The resulting analysis presents a full update of energy projections through to 2030, fuel by fuel, and with more country-level detail than ever before. WEO-2009 puts the spotlight on three special topics: (1) Financing energy investment under a post-2012 climate framework: What policy action is needed to increase deployment of new energy technologies? Where are the most cost-effective opportunities for carbon mitigation? This ground-breaking analysis, which zooms in on the crucial period through to 2020, provides a robust quantitative basis for United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations in the lead-up to the crucial climate meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009. (2) Prospects for global natural gas markets: How hard will the credit crisis and economic recession hit gas demand and investment in gas supply? How will geology and geopolitics affect future gas supplies? Through field-by-field analysis of production trends of the world's key gas fields and a bottom-up analysis of upstream costs and investment, WEO-2009 takes a hard look at future global gas supply. (3) Energy trends in Southeast Asia: In recognition of the growing influence Southeast Asia is having on global energy markets, WEO-2009 includes an in-depth analysis of this fast-growing region. The annual WEO report -- the flagship publication of the IEA -- is widely recognised as the most authoritative source of global energy

  2. Renewables. Global futures report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinot, Eric

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to show the range of credible possibilities for the future of renewable energy. It does not present just one vision of the future, but rather a full and objective range of visions, based on the collective and contemporary thinking of many. This report combines a unique array of interviews with 170 experts from around the world, along with over 50 recently published scenarios. These interviews and scenarios are blended into a 'mosaic' of thinking about the future. Persons interviewed included industry and finance experts, CEOs and business managers, researchers and academics, policy-makers and parliamentarians, and public advocates and visionaries, among many others. Views of existing energy companies are also included

  3. Influence of economic factors on future global emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.B.; Poehnell, T.G.; Miller, A.I.; Tamm, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    The climate change debate is really about economics, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change potential at a reasonable and acceptable cost for everyone. In this paper, we examine the major economic factors behind defining climate change policies that relate to reducing GHG emissions, and the value to be placed on CO 2 . We examine the impacts and the 'cost of carbon' based on the studies of GHG reduction strategies in the US and the European Union (EU). We show that a series of self-defeating assumptions have been used in the latest analyses regarding relative future energy and power costs, and hence future GHG emissions. We estimate: the 'natural value' of GHG emissions based on world economic factors, the value of electricity and energy based on world data, the cost advantage of using a given new technology, and the value of avoided GHG emissions in future global and national climate change projections. The use of electricity is shown to be key in aiding economic growth for the entire world. Using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2000 climate change projections as a base, we reflect the impacts of differing energy prices on future global climate conditions and GHG reductions. We conduct a similar analysis for Canada using the latest 'Energy in Canada 2000' projections. We show how the use of advanced technology for the traditional production of electricity, and for hydrogen-based transportation fuels, can stabilize global emissions and assist in managing adverse climate change conditions without causing economic penalties. The method we develop is sufficiently general that it can be used for valuing the economic impact of the emission reductions for any technology. We estimate the embedded value and potential economic benefit of nuclear technology and electric contribution for both the world economy to 2100, and for the latest projections for Canada to 2020. (author)

  4. Capitalism as if the world matters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porritt, J.

    2005-11-15

    This book tackles the most pressing problem of our time - how capitalism, and business, can provide a future of wealth, equity and ecological integrity. Destined to be one of the most important business, economics and politics books of the year. As our great economic machine grinds relentlessly forward into a future of declining fossil fuel supplies, climate change and ecosystem failure, humanity, by necessity, is beginning to question the very structure of the economy that has provided so much wealth, and inequity, across the world. In this fresh, politically charged analysis, Jonathon Porritt wades in on the most pressing question of the 21st century - can capitalism, as the only real economic game in town, be retooled to deliver a sustainable future? Porritt argues that indeed it can and it must as he lays out the framework for a new 'sustainable capitalism' that cuts across the political divide and promises a prosperous future of wealth, equity and ecosystem integrity. (author)

  5. Happy 20th Birthday, World Wide Web!

    CERN Multimedia

    2009-01-01

    On 13 March CERN celebrated the 20th anniversary of the World Wide Web. Check out the video interview with Web creator Tim Berners-Lee and find out more about the both the history and future of the Web. To celebrate CERN also launched a brand new website, CERNland, for kids.

  6. Current status of the world's research reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodd, B.

    1999-01-01

    Data from the IAEA's Research Reactor Database (RRDB) provides information with respect to the status of the world's research reactors. Some summary data are given. Recent initiatives by the IAEA regarding communications and information flow with respect to research reactors are discussed. Future plans and perspectives are also introduced. (author)

  7. World energy outlook 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-11-07

    The World Energy Outlook 2006 sets out the IEA's latest projections of world energy supply and demand to 2030 for oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear and electricity, plus projections on energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions. The publication is in three parts. Part A: The reference scenario has chapters entitled: Key assumptions; Global Energy Trends; Oil market outlook; Gas market outlook; Coal market outlook; and Power sector outlook. Part B: The alternative policy scenario contains chapters on: Mapping a new energy future; Assessing the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies; Deepening the analysis results by sector; and Getting to and going beyond the alternative policy scenario. Part C: Focus on key topics contains: The impact of higher energy prices; Current trends in oil and gas investment; Prospects for nuclear power; The outlook for biofuels; Energy for coking in developing countries; and Focus on Brazil. 224 figs., 84 tabs., 5 annexes.

  8. The world energy status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meritet, S.

    2010-01-01

    As energy consumption increased by a factor 20 during the 20. century, energy has not only an economic, but also a political role, and its management involves diplomatic, social, and now environmental issues. The author discusses the primary role still hold by fossil energies (coal, gas and oil) in the world energy consumption, comments the energy reserve assessments, outlines the financial needs for a renewable energy development, and questions the future evolution of reserves and consumption, as well as the consequences of climate change or the uncertainty about economic growth. The world energy assessment shows important differences between inhabitants: a US citizen consumes more than eight times more than a Chinese one. The shares of the different energy sources are also different from one country to another. In order to decrease the demand in energy, energy efficiency must be improved and user behaviour must evolve

  9. World energy outlook 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-11-07

    The World Energy Outlook 2006 sets out the IEA's latest projections of world energy supply and demand to 2030 for oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear and electricity, plus projections on energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions. The publication is in three parts. Part A: The reference scenario has chapters entitled: Key assumptions; Global Energy Trends; Oil market outlook; Gas market outlook; Coal market outlook; and Power sector outlook. Part B: The alternative policy scenario contains chapters on: Mapping a new energy future; Assessing the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies; Deepening the analysis results by sector; and Getting to and going beyond the alternative policy scenario. Part C: Focus on key topics contains: The impact of higher energy prices; Current trends in oil and gas investment; Prospects for nuclear power; The outlook for biofuels; Energy for coking in developing countries; and Focus on Brazil. 224 figs., 84 tabs., 5 annexes.

  10. Climate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Santana Andrade

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low. Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (60%. Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.

  11. EnerFuture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    EnerFuture offers short term energy demand forecasts for oil, gas, electricity and coal, in the 52 major energy countries in the world. Also included are the historical data series since 1997, extracted from the international ENERDATA Information System. It contents electricity consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture; oil consumption per sector: industry, transport, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from oil; gas consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from gas; coal consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from coal. (A.L.B.)

  12. Potential Futures for Information.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackermann, Mark R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Information is one of the most powerful tools available today. All advances in technology may be used, as David Sarnoff said, for the benefit or harm of society. Information can be used to shape the future by free people, or used to control people by less than benevolent governments, as has been demonstrated since the mid - 1930s, and with growing frequency over the past 50 years. What promised to once set people free and fuel an industrial revolution that might improve the standard of living over most of the world, has also been used to manipulate and enslave entire populations. The future of information is tied to the future of technologies that support the collection of data, processing those data into information and knowledge, and distribution. Technologies supporting the future of information must include technologies that help protect the integrity of data and information, and help to guarantee its discoverability and appropriate availability -- often to the whole of society. This Page Intentionally Left Blank

  13. Brazil in the global energy world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Frank D.; Vossoughi, Shapour [University of Kansas (KU), KS (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Brazil is the 10th largest energy consumer in the world and the third largest in the Western Hemisphere, behind the United States and Canada. Total primary energy consumption in Brazil has increased significantly in recent years; and over the past decade, Brazil has made great strides in increasing its total energy production, particularly oil. Brazil has the second-largest crude oil reserves in South America (behind Venezuela), and is one of the fastest growing oil producers in the world. According to United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), Brazil had 12.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in 2008. In 2007, Brazil's state owned Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS) announced that it had discovered an estimated 5-8 billion barrels of recoverable reserves (including both oil and natural gas) in the Tupi field, located in the Santos Basin. In 2008, subsequent discoveries were announced, to include Jupiter and Carioca (aka Sugar Loaf). Although PETROBRAS has yet to confirm the size of the discoveries, some industry analysts estimate the total extent of recoverable oil and natural gas reserves in the entire pre-salt layer have approached 40 to 80 billion barrels of oil equivalent. The reserves occur below a salt zone that is estimated to be 7,000 meters below the ocean surface. However, Brazil faces many challenges to recover the hydrocarbons to include technical, political, fiscal, and infrastructure hurdles. In spite of the challenges ahead, these discoveries transformed the nature and focus of Brazil's oil industry, economy, and future; and the potential impact of the pre-salt discoveries upon world oil markets is vast. The purpose of this paper is to discuss how the recent discoveries will affect Brazil's future and the impact it will have on the global energy world. (author)

  14. Modified holographic dark energy in DGP brane world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Dao-Jun; Wang, Hua; Yang, Bin

    2010-01-01

    In this Letter, the cosmological dynamics of a modified holographic dark energy which is derived from the UV/IR duality by considering the black hole mass in higher dimensions as UV cutoff, is investigated in Dvali-Gabadadze-Porrati (DGP) brane world model. We choose Hubble horizon and future event horizon as IR cutoff respectively. And the two branches of the DGP model are both taken into account. When Hubble horizon is considered as IR cutoff, the modified holographic dark energy (HDE) behaves like an effect dark energy that modification of gravity in pure DGP brane world model acts and it can drive the expansion of the universe speed up at late time in ε=-1 branch which in pure DGP model cannot undergo an accelerating phase. When future event horizon acts as IR cutoff, the equation of state parameter of the modified HDE can cross the phantom divide.

  15. Past and projected future changes in snowpack and soil frost at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    John L. Campbell; Scott V. Ollinger; Gerald N. Flerchinger; Haley Wicklein; Katharine Hayhoe; Amey S. Bailey

    2010-01-01

    Long-term data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire show that air temperature has increased by about 1 °C over the last half century. The warmer climate has caused significant declines in snow depth, snow water equivalent and snow cover duration. Paradoxically, it has been suggested that warmer air temperatures may result in colder soils...

  16. Nuclear power: How competitive down the line? [The world's latest energy outlook sees a mixed future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birol, F.

    2007-01-01

    The world is facing twin energy-related threats: that of not having adequate and secure supplies of energy at affordable prices and that of environmental harm caused by its use. Soaring energy prices and recent geopolitical events have reminded us of the essential role affordable energy plays in economic growth and human development, and of the vulnerability of the global energy system to supply disruptions. Safeguarding energy supplies is once again at the top of the international policy agenda. Yet the current pattern of energy supply carries the threat of severe and irreversible environmental damage. Reconciling the goals of energy security and environmental protection requires strong and coordinated government action and public support. These concerns have revived discussion about the role of nuclear power. Over the past two years, several governments have made statements favouring an increased role of nuclear power in the future energy mix and a few have taken concrete steps towards the construction of a new generation of safe and cost-effective reactors. Over the next two and a half decades, nuclear power along with energy efficiency and renewables, could help address concerns about over-reliance on fossil-fuelled electricity generation, especially worries about climate change and increasing dependence on gas imports: Nuclear power is a low-carbon source of electricity. Operation of one gigawatt of nuclear power generating capacity, if replacing coal-fired generation, avoids the emission of 5.6 million tonnes of CO 2 per year. Nuclear power plants do not emit any airborne pollutants such as sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides or particulate matter. Nuclear power plants can help reduce dependence on imported gas; and unlike gas, uranium resources are widely distributed around the world. Under current policies, gas-import dependence will rise in all regions of the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and in key developing countries by 2030

  17. Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken

    2017-12-01

    Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

  18. The role of nuclear power in meeting future energy demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuchs, K.

    1977-01-01

    Future energy demands and possibilities of meeting them are outlined. The current status and future developments of nuclear energetics all over the world and in the CMEA member states are discussed considering reactor safety, fission product releases, and thermal pollution of the environment

  19. Safe nuclear power for the Third World

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, W.R.; Lyon, C.F.; Redick, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    It is clear that using nuclear power for the generation of electricity is one way of reducing the emissions of CO 2 and other gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect. Equally clear is the fact that the reduction can be magnified by converting domestic, commercial, and industrial power-consuming activities from the direct use of fossil fuel sources to electrical energy. A major area for future progress in limiting CO 2 emissions is in the Third World, where population growth and expectations for a higher social and economic standard of living portend vast increases in future energy use. A number of problems come to mind as one contemplates the widespread expansion of nuclear energy use into the Third World. The authors propose a method involving the marriage of two currently evolving concepts by which nuclear electrical generation can be expanded throughout the world in a manner that will address these problems. The idea is to form multinational independent electric generating companies, or nuclear electric companies (NECs), that would design, build, operate, and service a standardized fleet of nuclear power plants. The plants would be of the Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) design, now under development at Argonne National Laboratory, and, in particular, a commercial conceptualization of the IFR sponsored by General Electric Company, the Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module (PRISM)

  20. Estimation of the Source Apportionment of Phosphorus and Its Responses to Future Climate Changes Using Multi-Model Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Sha

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The eutrophication issue in the Yangtze Basin was considered, and the phosphorus loads from its tributary, the Modaoxi River, were estimated. The phosphorus flux and source apportionment of the Modaoxi River watershed were modeled and quantified, and their changes with respect to future projected climate scenarios were simulated with multiple model applications. The Regional Nutrient Management (ReNuMa model based on Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF was employed as a tool to model the hydrochemical processes of the watershed and thereby estimate the monthly streamflow and the phosphorus flux as well as its source apportionment. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG was used to predict future daily weather data through the statistical downscaling of the general circulation model (GCM outputs based on projected climate scenarios. The synthetic time series of daily precipitation and temperatures generated by LARS-WG were further used as input data for ReNuMa to estimate the responses of the watershed hydrochemical processes to future changed climate conditions. The results showed that both models could be successfully applied and that the future wetter and warmer climate trends would have generally positive impacts on the watershed phosphorus yields, with greater contributions coming from runoff. These results could provide valuable support for local water environmental management.

  1. Hegemony and Bifurcation Points in World History

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terry Boswell

    1995-08-01

    Full Text Available Examination of the rise and fall of hegemons over the last 500 years reveals that each lasts about 100 years, with another 100 year period between hegemons that is characterized by rough balance among shifting powers frequent major wars. Can the future differ from the long and established pattern? Theories that causally link hegemony to uneven development succeed in explaining the perennial rise and fall of world leaders, but fail to explain the persistence of a leader who has become hegemonic. The explanation given here is the establishment of institutional inertia in the world order, which slows the diffusion of innovations, but also restrains the adoption of subsequent changes. An analytic model describes the cycle of hegemony as the historically and politically contingent interaction of long terms trends in the world-system. Recently, hegemony has come into interaction with the cumulative trends of market commodification, decolonization, and democratization. This has produced a rise in independent nations and decline of imperial states worldwide. In the conclusion, we speculate on how these new developments make possible such events as a multi-state hegemony, a shared world polity, and a democratic world government.

  2. Analyzing Real-World Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency Benefits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonder, Jeffrey; Wood, Eric; Chaney, Larry; Holden, Jacob; Jeffers, Matthew; Wang, Lijuan

    2016-06-08

    Off-cycle technologies represent an important pathway to achieve real-world fuel savings, through which OEMs can potentially receive credit toward CAFE compliance. DOE national labs such as NREL are well positioned to provide objective input on these technologies using large, national data sets in conjunction with OEM- and technology-specific testing. This project demonstrates an approach that combines vehicle testing (dynamometer and on-road) with powertrain modeling and simulation over large, representative datasets to quantify real-world fuel economy. The approach can be applied to specific off-cycle technologies (engine encapsulation, start/stop, connected vehicle, etc.) in A/B comparisons to support calculation of realistic real-world impacts. Future work will focus on testing-based A/B technology comparisons that demonstrate the significance of this approach.

  3. Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow future market expectations?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coimbra, C.; Esteves, P.S.

    2004-01-01

    In macroeconomic forecasting, in spite of its important role in price and activity developments, oil prices are usually taken as an exogenous variable, for which assumptions have to be made. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of futures market prices against the other popular technical procedure, the carry-over assumption. The results suggest that there is almost no difference between opting for futures market prices or using the carry-over assumption for short-term forecasting horizons (up to 12 months), while, for longer-term horizons, they favour the use of futures market prices. However, as futures market prices reflect market expectations for world economic activity, futures oil prices should be adjusted whenever market expectations for world economic growth are different to the values underlying the macroeconomic scenarios, in order to fully ensure the internal consistency of those scenarios. (Author)

  4. Perceptions of Talented Students in Their Visual Representations about the Future World and Technology (Üstün Yetenekli Öğrencilerin Görsel Anlatımlarında Geleceğin Dünyasına ve Teknolojisine İlişkin Algıları

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Duygu Erişti

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose and significance: The present study aimed at investigating talented students’ artistic representations and perceptions regarding the future world and technology through their animated designs according to their design-based representations. A learning environment which allows talented students to use their ability, thoughts and creativity in the process of design-based instructional activities is of great interest for them. It is important for talented students to have instructional experiences which provide independent and unique learning opportunities and special application areas that allow these students to show their abilities (CfBT, 2008. Results: The participants of the study were talented elementary school students attending the Education Programs for Talented Students (EPTS at Anadolu University. The criterion sampling method was used to select the research participants. The criterion for selecting the participants was attendance in the course of ‘Computer-Aided Graphics Design’ offered in the EPTS. The participants included a total of 35 elementary school 6th, 7th and 8th grade talented students. The study was conducted in three phases: instruction process, design process and evaluation process. Some preliminary preparations related to the design program were carried out considering that the students would use them while doing animated designs through the instruction process. The instruction phase involved an animated representation study during which the students designed their own animations. In the last phase, all the animate designs of the talented students were analyzed. The thematic analysis based on qualitative research method along with art-based inquiry was used. The thematic coding system for analyzing concepts revealed from the research data was implemented. The visual language used in pictorial representations produce messages, with its specialized codes. The degree of students’ understanding and explaining

  5. The Influence of Weather Anomalies on Mercury Cycling in the Marine Coastal Zone of the Southern Baltic-Future Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bełdowska, Magdalena

    2015-01-01

    Despite the decreased emission loads of mercury, historical deposits of this metal in various compartments of the environment may become an additional diffuse source in the future. Global climate change manifests itself in the temperate zone in several ways: warmer winters, shorter icing periods, increased precipitation and heightened frequency of extreme events such as strong gales and floods, all of which cause disturbances in the rate and direction of mercury biogeochemical cycling. The present study was conducted at two sites, Oslonino and Gdynia Orlowo (both in the coastal zone of the Gulf of Gdansk), from which samples were collected once a month between January 2012 and December 2012. In the Southern Baltic region, climate changes can certainly enhance coast to basin fluxes of mercury and the transfer of bioavailable forms of this metal to the food web. They may also, in the future, contribute to uncontrollable increases of mercury in the seawater.

  6. The evolution of human rights in World Health Organization policy and the future of human rights through global health governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, B M; Onzivu, W

    2014-02-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) was intended to serve at the forefront of efforts to realize human rights to advance global health, and yet this promise of a rights-based approach to health has long been threatened by political constraints in international relations, organizational resistance to legal discourses, and medical ambivalence toward human rights. Through legal research on international treaty obligations, historical research in the WHO organizational archives, and interview research with global health stakeholders, this research examines WHO's contributions to (and, in many cases, negligence of) the rights-based approach to health. Based upon such research, this article analyzes the evolving role of WHO in the development and implementation of human rights for global health, reviews the current state of human rights leadership in the WHO Secretariat, and looks to future institutions to reclaim the mantle of human rights as a normative framework for global health governance. Copyright © 2013 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Reactor Antineutrinos Signal all over the world

    OpenAIRE

    Ricci, B.; Mantovani, F.; Baldoncini, M.; Esposito, J.; Ludhova, L.; Zavatarelli, S.

    2014-01-01

    We present an updated estimate of reactor antineutrino signal all over the world, with particular attention to the sites proposed for existing and future geo-neutrino experiment. In our calculation we take into account the most updated data on Thermal Power for each nuclear plant, on reactor antineutrino spectra and on three neutrino oscillation mechanism.

  8. A Home in the World? Remarks on India and the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-05-01

    their loyalties shift. If you ask an Indian working in America what he or she misses about India, the instant reponse is "Family," not corruption...experts, for whom the past is the pattern of the future. Then, in Burma, with a chopstick load of noodles halfway to my snout, the light finally

  9. Education of population for the future and the future of education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovanović-Gavrilović Biljana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The key to the future of any country in the modern world lies in the knowledge, skills and talent of its population. This gives a special importance to education through which human capital is created as an important component of national wealth. Different methods of measuring human capital are found in literature. There is a well-known division into monetary and non-monetary methods, with the latter being specifically addressed in the article. Education plays an important role in achieving sustainable development. Through education, knowledge about sustainable development is acquired while human resources that are capable and willing to achieve this development are created. Education, just like sustainable development, has a long-time perspective. In both cases, the interests of the future are respected when making decisions in the present. The impact of education on sustainable development is manifested through all three of its dimensions – economic, social and environmental. The key role of education for achieving sustainable development has been globally recognized and embedded in relevant United Nations documents, including a new global development agenda by 2030, focusing on the Sustainable Development Goals, of which Objective 4 explicitly refers to education. The European Union also pays considerable attention to education for the future in the context of the commitment of its members to achieve sustainable development. Serbia, at least declaratively, follows it, given the orientation of the country to join this regional integration. The future of education is under the strong influence of global mega trends, especially the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which strongly influences the world of work and the necessary knowledge and skills. During the earlier industrial revolutions, it took several decades to build appropriate education and training systems, but there is no time for that now. Changes must be anticipated, and reactions

  10. Wintel and Beyond: Leadership in the Net World Order

    OpenAIRE

    Appleyard, Melissa M.; Brown, Clair; Linden, Greg

    2004-01-01

    The separate vertical product segments of the electronics industry are converging into a Net World Order of multifunctional product categories. We lay out a stylized value chain for analyzing firm performance in the various horizontal segments of the Net World Order. We measure firm performance with ROI data for the 1990s, and find that high-performing companies can emerge in any segment. We then turn our attention to the future and sketch the key elements of value creation and capture in the...

  11. Greenland in Warm (1.5 °C) and Warmer (RCP 8.5) Worlds: The Influence of the Paris Agreement on Ice Sheet Surface Melting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reusch, D. B.

    2017-12-01

    Melting on the surface of the Greenland ice sheet has been changing dramatically as global air temperatures have increased in recent decades, including melt extent often exceeding the 1981-2010 median through much of the melt season and the onset of intermittent melt moving to earlier in the year. To evaluate potential future change, we investigate surface melting characteristics under both "low" (limited to 1.5 °C) and "high" (RCP 8.5) warming scenarios including analysis of differences in scenario outcomes. Climatologies of melt-relevant variables are developed from two publicly available ensembles of CESM1-CAM5-BGC GCM runs: the 30-member Large Ensemble (CESM LE; Kay et al. 2015) for historical calibration and the RCP 8.5 scenario and the 11-member Low Warming ensemble (CESM LW; Sanderson et al. 2017) for the 1.5 °C scenario. For higher spatial resolution (15 km) and improved polar-centric model physics, we also apply the regional forecast model Polar WRF to decadal subsets (1996-2005; 2071-80) using GCM data archived at sub-daily resolution for boundary conditions. Models were skill-tested against ERA-Interim Reanalysis (ERAI) and AWS observations. For example, CESM LE tends to overpredict both maximum (above-freezing) and minimum daily average surface temperatures compared to observations from the GC-Net Swiss Camp AWS. Ensembles of members differing only by initial conditions allow us to also estimate intramodel uncertainty. Historical (1981-2000) CESM LE spatially averaged July temperatures are 2 +/- 0.2 °C cooler than ERAI while local anomalies in individual members reach up to +/- 2 °C. As expected, Greenland does not escape future (2081-2100) warming (and expectations of more widespread surface melting) even in the LW scenario, but positive changes versus ERAI are mostly coastal (2-3 °C) with the interior showing only minor change (+/- 1 °C). In contrast, under RCP 8.5, the entire ice sheet has warmed by 2-6 °C, or a median increase of 5 °C versus

  12. The hydroelectric power market in the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Junius, A.

    2004-10-01

    This work makes a synthesis of the hydroelectric power market, of its present day capacity in the world, and of its perspectives of development in the future. The first part treats of the hydroelectric facilities and of the market of hydroelectric power plants. It presents the technology used and the different types of plants, the evolution of their geographical setting and the future potentialities of development. The second part deals with the competitiveness of this industry with respect to: the energy policy stakes, the profitability, the energy independence of countries, the regulation of power networks and the environmental impacts. (J.S.)

  13. Sustainability in a multipolar world

    OpenAIRE

    Basha i Novosejt, A.; Weterings, R.; Ridder, M. de; Frinking, E.

    2010-01-01

    In its 30-Year Update of the well-known publication ‘The Limits to growth’ the Club of Rome stressed that the once debated notion of a physically limited world growth is becoming apparent in many well-documented studies. Three decades ago, the Brundtland Commission on Development and Environment initiated an international momentum to secure the needs of both present and future generations through a joint policy agenda for sustainable development. Institutions such as the United Nations played...

  14. Transforming U.S. Forces and the World: Are They Connected?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-07-01

    Extent of gaps between "haves" and "have- substantially larger. knots;" backsliding in fragile democracies; managing or containing financial crises...Russian instituites "* a 1riti me strategy "* Future natiot na security environment and forces * "Strateki’ isisues retated to European littoral regions... managing every- thing in the world, much less the Defense Department (DOD) trying to manage it all. Most of life going on in the world proceeds without

  15. Updated Hubbert curves analyze world oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanhoe, L.F.

    1996-01-01

    The question is not whether, but when, world crude oil production will start to decline, ushering in the permanent oil shock era. While global information for predicting this event is not so straightforward as the data M. King Hubbert used in creating his famous Hubbert Curve that predicted the US (Lower 48 states, or US/48) 1970 oil production peak, there are strong indications that most of the world's large exploration targets have now been found. Meanwhile, the earth's population is exploding along with the oil needs of Asia's developing nations. This article reviews Hubbert's original analyses on oil discovery and production curves for the US/48 and projects his proven methodology onto global oil discoveries and production as of 1992. The world's oil discovery curve peaked in 1962, and thence declined, as a Hubbert Curve predicts. However, global production was restricted after the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Otherwise, world production would have peaked in the mid-1990s. Two graphs show alternate versions of future global oil production

  16. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES), provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.

  17. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report

  18. Assessing the Value of Real-life Brands in Virtual Worlds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mattsson, Jan; Barnes, Stuart; Hartley, Nicole

    2015-01-01

    World. A key finding is the difficulty in creating emotional brand value in Second Life which has serious implications for the sustainability of current real-life brands in Virtual Worlds. The paper rounds off with conclusions and implications for future research and practice in this very new area.......Virtual Worlds are a significant new market environment for brand-building through experiential customer service interactions. Using value theory, this paper aims to assess the experiential brand value of real-life brands that have moved to the Virtual World of Second Life. A key premise...... is that current brand offerings in Virtual Worlds do not offer consumers adequate experiential value. The results demonstrate both the validity of an axiological approach to examining brand value, and highlight significant problems in consumer perceptions of the experiential value of brands within the Virtual...

  19. Simple inflationary models in Gauss–Bonnet brane-world cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okada, Nobuchika; Okada, Satomi

    2016-01-01

    In light of the recent Planck 2015 results for the measurement of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy, we study simple inflationary models in the context of the Gauss–Bonnet (GB) brane-world cosmology. The brane-world cosmological effect modifies the power spectra of scalar and tensor perturbations generated by inflation and causes a dramatic change for the inflationary predictions of the spectral index ( n s ) and the tensor-to-scalar ratio ( r ) from those obtained in the standard cosmology. In particular, the predicted r values in the inflationary models favored by the Planck 2015 results are suppressed due to the GB brane-world cosmological effect, which is in sharp contrast with inflationary scenario in the Randall–Sundrum brane-world cosmology, where the r values are enhanced. Hence, these two brane-world cosmological scenarios are distinguishable. With the dramatic change of the inflationary predictions, the inflationary scenario in the GB brane-world cosmology can be tested by more precise measurements of n s and future observations of the CMB B -mode polarization. (paper)

  20. Positioning for a positive future: Cigar Lake mine starts production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gitzel, Tim

    2014-01-01

    This presentation includes forward-looking information or forward-looking statements under Canadian and U.S. securities laws, including our expectations regarding future world electricity consumption, the number of net new reactors we expect to be built, our expectations regarding future uranium supply and demand, our future uranium production targets and forecasts, and our forecasts relating to mining, mine life, production, development and other activities

  1. Future reactors and their fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rastoin, J.

    1990-01-01

    Known world reserves of oil and natural gas may only last another 50 years and therefore nuclear energy will become more important in the future. Industrialised countries should also be encouraged to conserve their oil reserves to make better use of them and share them with less developed countries. France already produces 30% or more of its primary energy from uranium in the form of nuclear generated electricity. France has therefore accumulated considerable expertise in all aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle. Each stage of the fuel cycle, extraction, enrichment, fuel fabrication, fissile material utilisation, reprocessing and waste storage is discussed. The utilisation of fissile material is the most important stage and this is considered in more detail under headings: increase in burn-up, spectral shift, plutonium utilisation including recycling in pressurized water reactors and fast reactors and utilisation of reprocessed uranium. It is concluded that nuclear power for electricity production will be widely used throughout the world in the future. (UK)

  2. Journal of the two worlds. Energies of the future; Revue des deux mondes. Les energies du futur

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    Confusion and irrationality are the two master-words of today's debates about energies and their impact on safety, environment, ethic and society. On the other hand, reports about urgent decisions to be taken are piling up (wastes reprocessing, future of nuclear energy, European policy etc..). This book analyzes the possible scenarios and the energy challenges at the year 2030 and 2050 vistas. (J.S.)

  3. World oil and gas resources-future production realities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masters, C.D.; Root, D.H.; Attanasi, E.D.

    1990-01-01

    Welcome to uncertainty was the phrase Jack Schanz used to introduce both layman and professionals to the maze of petroleum energy data that must be comprehended to achieve understanding of this critical commodity. Schanz was referring to the variables as he and his colleagues with Resources for the Future saw them in those years soon after the energy-awakening oil embargo of 1973. In some respects, the authors have made progress in removing uncertainty from energy data, but in general, we simply must accept that there are many points of view and many ways for the blindman to describe the elephant. There can be definitive listing of all uncertainties, but for this paper the authors try to underscore those traits of petroleum occurrence and supply that the author's believe bear most heavily on the understanding of production and resource availability. Because oil and gas exist in nature under such variable conditions and because the products themselves are variable in their properties, the authors must first recognize classification divisions of the resource substances, so that the reader might always have a clear perception of just what we are talking about and how it relates to other components of the commodity in question

  4. Effectively utilizing NYMEX contracts for natural gas electricity futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burke, L.M.

    1996-01-01

    NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) is one of the United States' largest commodity exchanges. The primary role of commodity exchanges were summarized as well as the characteristics of an effective exchange. The concept of commoditization, price risk and price volatility were explained. The evolution of world and domestic regulated energy markets, the characteristics of the futures market, NYMEX electricity futures contract specifications, natural gas and crude futures contract development, and the nature of hedging were reviewed. Differences of risk management practices in cash markets and futures markets were illustrated. tabs., figs

  5. Learning Outcomes in Sustainability Education among Future Elementary School Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, Rider W.; Archambault, Leanna M.; Hale, Annie E.; Dong, Hsiang-Kai

    2017-01-01

    Universities and colleges around the world are exploring ways of reorganizing curricula to educate future leaders in sustainability. Preservice teachers hold tremendous potential to introduce concepts of sustainability far earlier than post-secondary education. However, there is little research of such efforts to yield changes in future elementary…

  6. Underground gas storage in the World - Cedigaz survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benquey, R.

    2010-01-01

    The 2010 edition of 'Underground Gas Storage in the World' provides an update to the previous survey released by CEDIGAZ in 2006. At that time, 610 underground gas storage (UGS) facilities were in operation worldwide, with a working capacity of 319 billion cubic metres (bcm). As of 1 January 2010, this number had reached 642 facilities with a working gas capacity of 333 bcm, or 10.8% of world gas consumption. By 2020, the global UGS demand is expected to grow at a pace of 3.3% per year, and according to the projects identified, more than 760 UGS sites could be active in the world with a total working capacity of approximately 465 bcm. In this survey, CEDIGAZ analyses the following trends which characterise the rapid development of underground gas storage in the world: - the strong dynamics of the European storage market, where 127 projects could add 75 bcm of working capacity by 2020, - the continued development of the UGS market in the United States (49 projects), encouraged by market-based rates allowed by the FERC, and rapid permitting processes, - the development of facilities in countries with little or no storage capacities at present, in Asia/Oceania, the C.I.S., and Eastern Europe in particular. This survey provides an analysis of the recent evolutions in the technic-economic aspects of the underground gas storage business, as well as an overview of the UGS markets and their developments in the world, country by country. A specific section is dedicated to the analysis of future UGS needs in Europe by 2020: - Technic-economic aspects of UGS: This part of the survey analyses the latest technical improvements and research axes in the field of underground gas storage. As it is more difficult to build greenfield storage facilities, a lot of work has been done to improve the performance and flexibility of existing storage sites. This section also deals with the evolution of investment and operational costs in storage over the last few years. Furthermore, the

  7. Underground gas storage in the World - 2013 (fifth Edition)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornot-Gandolphe, Sylvie

    2013-07-01

    Since its first publication in 1990, 'Underground Gas Storage in the World' has been the industry's reference on underground gas storage (UGS). The updated 2013 edition includes in-depth CEDIGAZ's analyses of the latest developments and trends in the storage industry all over the world as well as extensive country analyses with complete datasets including current, under construction and planned Underground Gas Storage facilities in 48 countries. It describes the 688 existing storage facilities in the world and the 236 projects under construction and planned. Future storage demand and its main drivers are presented at global and regional levels. 'Underground Gas Storage in the World 2013' builds on the CEDIGAZ Underground Gas Storage Database, the only worldwide Underground Gas Storage database to be updated every year. The Survey includes four main parts: The first part gives an overview of underground gas storage in the world at the beginning of 2013 and analyzes future storage needs by 2030, at regional and international levels. The second part focuses on new trends and issues emerging or developing in key storage markets. It analyzes the emerging storage market in China, reviews the storage business climate in Europe, examines Gazprom's storage strategy in Europe, and reviews recent trends in storage development in the United States. The third part gives some fundamental background on technical, economic and regulatory aspects of gas storage. The fourth part gives a countrywide analysis of the 48 countries in the world holding underground gas storage facilities or planning storage projects. 48 countries surveyed, 688 existing UGS facilities, 256 projects under construction or planned. The document includes 70 tables, 72 charts and figures, 44 country maps. The countries surveyed are: Europe : Albania, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Poland

  8. Markets China Defends its Index Future

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JESSY ZHANG

    2006-01-01

    @@ On September 5th, the Singapore Exchange(SGX) launched the world's first index futures based on stocks listed in the Chinese mainland, despite the fact that index compiler FTSE/Xinhua was in the process of being sued by two Chinese companies that manage data for the Chinese stock exchanges.

  9. Forecasting world natural gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Fattah, S. M.; Startzman, R. A.

    2000-01-01

    Using the multi-cyclic Hubert approach, a 53 country-specific gas supply model was developed which enables production forecasts for virtually all of the world's gas. Supply models for some organizations such as OPEC, non-OPEC and OECD were also developed and analyzed. Results of the modeling study indicate that the world's supply of natural gas will peak in 2014, followed by an annual decline at the rate of one per cent per year. North American gas production is reported to be currently at its peak with 29 Tcf/yr; Western Europe will reach its peak supply in 2002 with 12 Tcf. According to this forecast the main sources of natural gas supply in the future will be the countries of the former Soviet Union and the Middle East. Between them, they possess about 62 per cent of the world's ultimate recoverable natural gas (4,880 Tcf). It should be noted that these estimates do not include unconventional gas resulting from tight gas reservoirs, coalbed methane, gas shales and gas hydrates. These unconventional sources will undoubtedly play an important role in the gas supply in countries such as the United States and Canada. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 18 figs

  10. New MAGLEV link opens door to world sales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-03-13

    When the magnetic levitation people mover-or advanced transit shuttle-linking Birmingham airport with the international railway station opens in 1984, it is expected to be the first revenue-earning system of its kind in the world. The project and the high hopes of its backers for future sales are discussed.

  11. Metal matrix composites: History, status, factors and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cyriac, Ajith James

    The history, status, and future of metal matrix composites are presented by evaluating the progression of available literature through time. The trends that existed and issues that still prevail are discussed and a prediction of the future for MMCs is presented. The factors that govern the performance of metal matrix composites are also discussed. In many developed countries and in several developing countries there exists continued interest in MMCs. Researchers tried numerous combinations of matrices and reinforcements since work strictly on MMCs began in the 1950s. This led to developments for aerospace and defense applications, but resultant commercial applications were limited. The introduction of ceramic whiskers as reinforcement and the development of 'in-situ' eutectics in the 1960s aided high temperature applications in aircraft engines. In the late 1970s the automobile industries started to take MMCs seriously. In the last 20 years, MMCs evolved from laboratories to a class of materials with numerous applications and commercial markets. After the collapse of the Berlin Wall, prevailing order in the world changed drastically. This effect was evident in the progression of metal matrix composites. The internet connected the world like never before and tremendous information was available for researchers around the world. Globalization and the internet resulted in the transformation of the world to a more level playing field, and this effect is evident in the nature and source of research on metal matrix composites happening around the world.

  12. Underground Gas Storage in the World 2013 (fifth edition)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornot-Gandolphe, Sylvie

    2013-06-01

    Since its first publication in 1990, 'Underground Gas Storage in the World' has been the industry's reference on underground gas storage (UGS). The updated 2013 edition includes in-depth CEDIGAZ's analyses of the latest developments and trends in the storage industry all over the world as well as extensive country analyses with complete datasets including current, under construction and planned Underground Gas Storage facilities in 48 countries. It describes the 688 existing storage facilities in the world and the 236 projects under construction and planned. Future storage demand and its main drivers are presented at global and regional levels. The study builds on the CEDIGAZ Underground Gas Storage Database, the only worldwide Underground Gas Storage database to be updated every year. This document summarizes the key findings of the Survey which includes four main parts: The first part gives an overview of underground gas storage in the world at the beginning of 2013 and analyzes future storage needs by 2030, at regional and international levels. The second part focuses on new trends and issues emerging or developing in key storage markets. It analyzes the emerging storage market in China, reviews the storage business climate in Europe, examines Gazprom's storage strategy in Europe, and reviews recent trends in storage development in the United States. The third part gives some fundamental background on technical, economic and regulatory aspects of gas storage. The fourth part gives a countrywide analysis of the 48 countries in the world holding underground gas storage facilities or planning storage projects. 48 countries are surveyed with 688 existing UGS facilities, 256 projects under construction or planned

  13. Learning from Ebola Virus: How to Prevent Future Epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander S. Kekulé

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD epidemic in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone demonstrated that the World Health Organization (WHO is incapable to control outbreaks of infectious diseases in less developed regions of the world. This essay analyses the causes for the failure of the international response and proposes four measures to improve resilience, early detection and response to future outbreaks of infectious diseases.

  14. Future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Croce, A.

    1991-01-01

    According to George Woodwell, founder of the Woods Hole Research Center, due the combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation and accelerated respiration, the net annual increase of carbon, in the form of carbon dioxide, to the 750 billion tonnes already present in the earth's atmosphere, is in the order of 3 to 5 billion tonnes. Around the world, scientists, investigating the probable effects of this increase on the earth's future climate, are now formulating coupled air and ocean current models which take account of water temperature and salinity dependent carbon dioxide exchange mechanisms acting between the atmosphere and deep layers of ocean waters

  15. Future Perspective : Design Process of Perfume Packaging

    OpenAIRE

    Anderson, Duncan

    2016-01-01

    In a world where technology develops at a rapid speed a packaging designer should have the ability to adapt to the challenges in a world where the packaging landscape might look far more different from today. This thesis will look at possible future scenarios relating to resources, infrastructure and consumer behaviour in the year 2050. It will then go on to discuss the emergence of new packaging materials pitted to replace plastic, as well as take a look at printed electronics in packaging a...

  16. World electricity generation, nuclear power, and oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    Striking changes have characterized the world's production and use of energy over the past 15 years. Most prominent have been the wide price fluctuations, politicization of world oil prices and supply, along with profound changes in patterns of production and consumption. This report, based on a study by energy analysts at Science Concepts, Inc., in the United States, traces changes in world energy supply since 1973-74 - the time of the first oil ''price shocks''. In so doing, it identifies important lessons for the future. The study focused in particular on the role of the electric power sector because the growth in fuel use in it has been accomplished without oil. Instead, the growth has directly displaced oil. In the pre-1973 era, the world relied increasingly on oil for many energy applications, including the production of electricity. By 1973, more than on-fourth of the world's electricity was produced by burning oil. By 1987, however, despite a large increase in electric demand, the use of oil was reigned back to generating less than 10% of the world's electricity. Nuclear power played a major role in this turnaround. From 1973-87, analysts at Science Concepts found, nuclear power displaced the burning of 11.7 billion barrels of oil world-wide and avoided US $323 billion in oil purchases

  17. Future Warming Increases Global Maize Yield Variability with Implications for Food Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tigchelaar, M.; Battisti, D. S.; Naylor, R. L.; Ray, D. K.

    2017-12-01

    If current trends in population growth and dietary shifts continue, the world will need to produce about 70% more food by 2050, while earth's climate is rapidly changing. Rising temperatures in particular are projected to negatively impact agricultural production, as the world's staple crops perform poorly in extreme heat. Theoretical models suggest that as temperatures rise above plants' optimal temperature for performance, not only will mean yields decline rapidly, but the variability of yields will increase, even as interannual variations in climate remain unchanged. Here we use global datasets of maize production and climate variability combined with CMIP5 temperature projections to quantify how yield variability will change in major maize producing countries under 2°C and 4°C of global warming. Maize is the world's most produced crop, and is linked to other staple crops through substitution in consumption and production. We find that in warmer climates - absent any breeding gains in heat tolerance - the Coefficient of Variation (CV) of maize yields increases almost everywhere, to values much larger than present-day. This increase in CV is due both to an increase in the standard deviation of yields, and a decrease in mean yields. In locations where crop failures become the norm under high (4°C) warming (mostly in tropical, low-yield environments), the standard deviation of yields ultimately decreases. The probability that in any given year the most productive areas in the top three maize producing countries (United States, China, Brazil) have simultaneous production losses greater than 10% is virtually zero under present-day climate conditions, but increases to 12% under 2°C warming, and 89% under 4°C warming. This has major implications for global food markets and staple crop prices, affecting especially the 2.5 billion people that comprise the world's poor, who already spend the majority of their disposable income on food and are particularly vulnerable

  18. Real-World Evidence, Public Participation, and the FDA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Jason L

    2017-11-01

    For observers of pharmaceutical regulation and the Food and Drug Administration, these are uncertain times. Events in late 2016 raised concerns that the FDA's evidentiary standards were being weakened, compromising the agency's ability to adequately perform its regulatory and public health responsibilities. Two developments most directly contributed to these fears-the approval of eteplirsen, a treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, against the recommendations of both FDA staff and an advisory committee and the December 2016 signing of the 21st Century Cures Act, which encouraged greater use by the FDA of "real-world" evidence not obtained through randomized controlled trials. The arrival of the Trump administration-with its deregulatory, industry-friendly approach-has only amplified concerns over the future of the FDA. It is too early to know whether the recent developments are truly harbingers of an FDA less likely to prevent unsafe or ineffective products from reaching the market. But elements in the two events-the role of patient narratives in deliberations regarding eteplirsen and the enthusiasm for real-world evidence in the 21st Century Cures Act-raise critical issues for the future of evidence in the FDA's work. The rigorous, inclusive approach under way to consider issues related to real-world evidence provides a model for a similarly needed inquiry regarding public participation in FDA decision-making. © 2017 The Hastings Center.

  19. Floridian heatwaves and extreme precipitation: future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavendra, Ajay; Dai, Aiguo; Milrad, Shawn M.; Cloutier-Bisbee, Shealynn R.

    2018-02-01

    Observational analysis and climate modeling efforts concur that the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves will increase as the Earth's mean climate shifts towards warmer temperatures. While the impacts and mechanisms of heatwaves have been well explored, extreme temperatures over Florida are generally understudied. This paper sheds light on Floridian heatwaves by exploring 13 years of daily data from surface observations and high-resolution WRF climate simulations for the same timeframe. The characteristics of the current and future heatwaves under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario for 2070-2099 were then investigated. Results show a tripling in the frequency, and greater than a sixfold increase in the mean duration of heatwaves over Florida when the current standard of heatwaves was used. The intensity of heatwaves also increased by 4-6 °C due to the combined effects of rising mean temperatures and a 1-2 °C increase attributed to the flattening of the temperature distribution. Since Florida's atmospheric boundary layer is rich in moisture and heatwaves could further increase the moisture content in the lower troposphere, the relationship between heatwaves and extreme precipitation was also explored in both the current and future climate. As expected, rainfall during a heatwave event was anomalously low, but it quickly recovered to normal within 3 days after the passage of a heatwave. Finally, the late 21st-century climate could witness a slight decrease in the mean precipitation over Florida, accompanied by heavier heatwave-associated extreme precipitation events over central and southern Florida.

  20. World helicopter market study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleary, B.; Pearson, R. W.; Greenwood, S. W.; Kaplan, L.

    1978-01-01

    The extent of the threat to the US helicopter industry posed by a determined effort by foreign manufacturers, European companies in particular, to supply their own domestic markets and also to penetrate export markets, including the USA is assessed. Available data on US and world markets for civil and military uses are collated and presented in both graphic and tabular form showing the past history of production and markets and, where forecasts are available, anticipated future trends. The data are discussed on an item-by-item basis and inferences are drawn in as much depth as appears justified.

  1. Distribution of near-surface permafrost in Alaska: estimates of present and future conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastick, Neal J.; Jorgenson, M. Torre; Wylie, Bruce K.; Nield, Shawn J.; Johnson, Kristofer D.; Finley, Andrew O.

    2015-01-01

    High-latitude regions are experiencing rapid and extensive changes in ecosystem composition and function as the result of increases in average air temperature. Increasing air temperatures have led to widespread thawing and degradation of permafrost, which in turn has affected ecosystems, socioeconomics, and the carbon cycle of high latitudes. Here we overcome complex interactions among surface and subsurface conditions to map nearsurface permafrost through decision and regression tree approaches that statistically and spatially extend field observations using remotely sensed imagery, climatic data, and thematic maps of a wide range of surface and subsurface biophysical characteristics. The data fusion approach generated medium-resolution (30-m pixels) maps of near-surface (within 1 m) permafrost, active-layer thickness, and associated uncertainty estimates throughout mainland Alaska. Our calibrated models (overall test accuracy of ~85%) were used to quantify changes in permafrost distribution under varying future climate scenarios assuming no other changes in biophysical factors. Models indicate that near-surface permafrost underlies 38% of mainland Alaska and that near-surface permafrost will disappear on 16 to 24% of the landscape by the end of the 21st Century. Simulations suggest that near-surface permafrost degradation is more probable in central regions of Alaska than more northerly regions. Taken together, these results have obvious implications for potential remobilization of frozen soil carbon pools under warmer temperatures. Additionally, warmer and drier conditions may increase fire activity and severity, which may exacerbate rates of permafrost thaw and carbon remobilization relative to climate alone. The mapping of permafrost distribution across Alaska is important for land-use planning, environmental assessments, and a wide-array of geophysical studies.

  2. Nuclear power in a changing world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.

    1996-01-01

    Nuclear power has a future that will only be fully realised if it is shown to be a solution to some of the world's most pressing energy, and associated environmental, problems. This can only be done if nuclear power itself ceases to be perceived as a problem by the public, interest groups, governments and financial institutions. In public relations terms, this means removing the persistent distortions and misconceptions about the nuclear industry. Environmentally, it involves showing that nuclear power is the only alternative energy source which does not contribute to climate change, preserves rare minerals and recycles its raw materials. Governments must be persuaded to see that nuclear power is the only economic answer to the growing energy demand arising from increased industrialisation and population growth. Financiers need convincing that nuclear power is the investment of the future and generators that it is the lowest cost economic and environmental option. The future of nuclear power depends on meeting these challenges. (UK)

  3. A Rapid History of Futures Thought: From Montgolfier to the Manhattan Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, I. F.

    1984-01-01

    The literature of future studies has grown up rapidly in times of technological innovation and social change. Particular events and publications that have contributed most to the development of the futures movement around the world are highlighted. (Author/RM)

  4. Witnessing the Future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elgaard Jensen, Torben

    2007-01-01

    and the problematic work life elsewhere. Finally, it notes that the manager's strategy enacts a timeworld characterised by dramatic epochal changes, which is radically different from the more stable and knowable time-world that is enacted in ordinary scientific discourses. Key words: actor-network theory, witnessing......Abstract: The paper explores the phenomenon of witnessing the future through a case study of how a Scandinavian new economy firm managed to persuade a number of business journalists that it was "the future". It describes the procedures and rhetorical strategies that the manager deployed to turn...... the journalists into witnesses. It compares the manager's strategy to other cases of effective witnessing in courtrooms and in science. It concludes that the manager's persuasiveness is derived from his ability to articulate a series of pointed contrasts between the attractive working life within the firm...

  5. The hydrocarbon era, world population growth and oil use -- a continuing geological challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Townes, H.L.

    1993-01-01

    The world's use of oil, the relationship of world population growth to this use, and what the energy situation might be in the future is a challenge to the geologist. The earth's population doubled between 1930 and 1975 and a comparison of world petroleum use and population growth show similar upward curves. Of the annual fossil fuel resources used in the world, crude oil supplies over 40 percent of the total resources. Petroleum is a finite resource and a projection of world oil production indicates it will peak early in the 21st century. Assuming an ultimate recovery range of 2600 to 3000 billion barrels of oil, 750 billion barrels have already been produced, there are 1000 billion barrels in proven reserves, and 1000 billion barrels remaining to be discovered. The challenge to the geologist will be to find these hidden oil reserves. Recovering this 1000 billion barrels of new oil reserves will require large capital expenditures and, currently, only 60 percent of the capital needed to discover this oil is being spent. With the world's demand for oil increasing, world-wide exploration expenditures are actually decreasing. Simple economics indicates that the reason for this drop in expenditures is that the price of oil is too low to encourage investment. Low oil prices also discourage investment in the development of alternative fuels. There is plenty of oil now, but the world must look to the future and realize present usage rate cannot continue forever. 23 refs., 10 figs

  6. Deciding for Future Selves Reduces Loss Aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiqi Cheng

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present an incentivized experiment to investigate the degree of loss aversion when people make decisions for their current selves and future selves under risk. We find that when participants make decisions for their future selves, they are less loss averse compared to when they make decisions for their current selves. This finding is consistent with the interpretation of loss aversion as a bias in decision-making driven by emotions, which are reduced when making decisions for future selves. Our findings endorsed the external validity of previous studies on the impact of emotion on loss aversion in a real world decision-making environment.

  7. Deciding for Future Selves Reduces Loss Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Qiqi; He, Guibing

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we present an incentivized experiment to investigate the degree of loss aversion when people make decisions for their current selves and future selves under risk. We find that when participants make decisions for their future selves, they are less loss averse compared to when they make decisions for their current selves. This finding is consistent with the interpretation of loss aversion as a bias in decision-making driven by emotions, which are reduced when making decisions for future selves. Our findings endorsed the external validity of previous studies on the impact of emotion on loss aversion in a real world decision-making environment.

  8. DIGITAL MARKETING: SUCCESS METRICS, FUTURE TRENDS

    OpenAIRE

    Preeti Kaushik

    2017-01-01

    Abstract – Business Marketing is one of the prospective which has been tremendously affected by digital world in last few years. Digital marketing refers to doing advertising through digital channels. This paper provides detailed study of metrics to measure success of digital marketing platform and glimpse of future of technologies by 2020.

  9. submitter Can you afford to wait? Designing the collider of the future

    CERN Document Server

    Benedikt, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Designing a future circular collider is a next step in humanity’s quest to explain the world. This effort is not only about striving for a profound understanding of nature, but also about creating an exciting perspective for future generations.

  10. Cancer Control: A Look to the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judith Mackay, MB ChB, FRCP (Edin), FRCP (Lon), an international expert from Hong Kong in tobacco control, with posts as a senior advisor for the World Lung Foundation and the Bloomberg Initiative to Reduce Tobacco Use, presented "Cancer Control: A Look to the Future".

  11. Future networks and technologies supporting innovative communications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prasad, Ramjee

    2012-01-01

    -communications (WISDOM) that combines the aspects of personal- and cognitive radio- networks to let seamlessly bridge the virtual and physical worlds offering a constant level of all-senses, context-based, rich communication experience over fixed and wireless networks for the end users while realizing a new generation......Within a fully interconnected world, the distinct relationship between end users, consumers and providers rapidly changes towards a scenario of collaboration and competition of multiple parties within one system. ‘Convergence’, ‘ubiquitous’ and ‘smart’ are key words describing future networks...

  12. Ecological and Technological Cities of the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özge Yalçıner ERCOŞKUN

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In Turkey, more energy is consumed than the average energyconsumption in the world, environmental policies are ignored,greenhouse emission levels are high, issues related to global climatechange are disregarded, agricultural land and forestry aredestroyed, and the ecological footprint increased; thus, it has becomean obligation to take significant precautions. Ecological andtechnological design of new comfortable, healthy, environmentfriendly,minimum carbon-consuming, self-sufficient settlementscontribute to urban sustainability. In this article, selected examplesfrom around the world are analyzed for the future of sustainablecities by putting forward ecological and technological approaches.

  13. Visions of Alternative (Unpredictable Futures and Their Use in Policy Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Costanza

    2000-07-01

    Full Text Available The most critical task facing humanity today is the creation of a shared vision of a sustainable and desirable society, one that can provide permanent prosperity within the biophysical constraints of the real world in a way that is fair and equitable to all of humanity, to other species, and to future generations. Recent work with businesses and communities indicates that creating a shared vision is the most effective engine for change in the desired direction, yet most effort in "futures modeling" has focused on extrapolating past trends rather than envisioning alternative futures. Science and economics as applied to policy are in conflict more often over alternative visions of the world than purely "scientific" disagreements. Likewise, governance has gotten bogged down in mediating short term conflicts between special interests rather than its more basic role of creating broadly shared visions that can guide dispute resolution. This paper addresses the question of what policies are most appropriate for society now, given alternative visions of the future and the enormous uncertainty about the reality of the assumptions underlying these visions. Four specific visions are laid out as being representative of the major alternatives. For each vision the benefits of achieving the vision, the assumptions that would have to be true in order for it to be achieved, and the implications of it being attempted but not achieved are explored. It is argued that dealing with uncertainty about the nature of the world, its carrying capacity for humans, the impacts of climate change, and other aspects of its future can best be done at this level of future visions and assumptions, not at more detailed levels (like the parameter uncertainty in models. Application of this vision/uncertainty analysis can help us both to design the future society we want and to maximize the chances of our getting there safely.

  14. The NYMEX electricity futures contract

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer-Huggins, D.

    1998-01-01

    Members of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) include bankers, industry (such as refiners, producers, and electricity marketers) brokerage houses, and individuals. NYMEX is the largest physical commodity futures exchange in the world. The primary economic role of the commodity exchange industry was discussed, with special emphasis on open interest, volume, and liquidity. Hedge dynamics were also reviewed. A hedge was described as a financial instrument used to lock in prices, costs, and profit margins. Futures contracts in general, and electricity futures contracts in particular were defined ('a firm commitment to deliver or to receive a specified quantity or grade of commodity at a specific location within a designated month'). Results expected from hedging, - cost control, predictable margins, securing a certain market share, price stabilization - , the nature of options trading, and its benefits were also reviewed. 1 tab., 4 figs

  15. Preparing for a Warmer World: Towards a Global Governance System to Protect Climate Refugees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biermann, F.; Boas, I.J.C.

    2010-01-01

    human history. Millions of people, largely in Africa and Asia, might be forced to leave their homes to seek refuge in other places or countries over the course of the century. Yet the current institutions, organizations, and funding mechanisms are not sufficiently equipped to deal with this looming

  16. Preparing for a warmer world: Towards a global governance system to protect climate refugees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biermann, F.; Boas, I.J.C.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change threatens to cause the largest refugee crisis in human history. Millions of people, largely in Africa and Asia, might be forced to leave their homes to seek refuge in other places or countries over the course of the century. Yet the current institutions, organizations, and funding

  17. Would behavioral thermoregulation enable pregnant viviparous tropical lizards to cope with a warmer world?

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Alcaide, Saúl; Nakamura, Miguel; Smith, Eric N; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique

    2017-09-01

    Sceloporus lizards depend on external heat to achieve their preferred temperature (T sel ) for performing physiological processes. Evidence both in the field and laboratory indicates that pregnant females of this Genus select body temperatures (T b ) lower than 34 °C as higher temperatures may be lethal to embryos. Therefore, thermoregulation is crucial for successful embryo development. Given the increase in global air temperature, it is expected that the first compensatory response of species that inhabit tropical climates will be behavioral thermoregulation. We tested whether viviparous Sceloporus formosus group lizards in the wild exhibited differences in thermoregulatory behavior to achieve the known T sel for developing embryos regardless of local thermal conditions. We quantified field active body temperature, thermoregulatory behavior mechanisms (time of sighting, microhabitat used and basking time) and available microhabitat thermal conditions (i.e. operative temperature) for 10 lizard species during gestation, distributed along an altitudinal gradient. We applied both conventional and phylogenic analyses to explore whether T b or behavioral thermoregulation could be regulated in response to different thermal conditions. These species showed no significant differences in field T b during gestation regardless of local thermal conditions. In contrast, they exhibited significant differences in their behavioral thermoregulation associated with local environmental conditions. Based on these observations, the differences in thermoregulatory behavior identified are interpreted as compensatory adjustments to local thermal conditions. We conclude that these species may deal with higher temperatures predicted for the tropics by modulating their thermoregulatory behavior. © 2017 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  18. The future of public hospitals in a globalized world: corporate governance, corporatization or privatization?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mordelet, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    This paper contributes to research in health systems and hospitals governance by examining the reasons and expected outcomes of the generalization of corporate governance rules in both public and private non-profit hospitals, all over the world, in order to achieve its clinical, quality and financial objectives.

  19. Future prospects for renewable energy sources in a global frame

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, P.

    1992-06-01

    The objective of this study has been to evaluate the possibilities of some new energy sources (solar, wind) in the future world energy supply. We intend to prepare future projections accounting for limitations in infrastructure, time and material inputs. One underlying assumption in the analyses is that new technologies will see an early market introduction in the near future which would continue up to year 2020. During these 30 years, there will still be technological developments leading to a much better manufacturability, mass production, and hence reduced costs. In year 2020, the industrial and economic infrastructure of new energy sources would be mature for a major penetration into the world energy market starting to substitute existing energy sources mainly for environmental reasons. This scenario will be suported by more factual information and data in the following chapters. Each new energy technology will be handled separately. (Quittner)

  20. Makiguchi in the "Fractured Future": Value-Creating and Transformative World Language Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goulah, Jason

    2009-01-01

    This article examines the applicability of Tsunesaburo Makiguchi's (1871-1944) educational ideas in what Denzin and Lincoln (2005) call the "fractured future," a time marked by human, environmental, and climatic destabilization, and a time in which the social sciences "are normative disciplines always already embedded in issues of…

  1. World Bioenergy 2012. Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-11-01

    The conference of 2012 had contributions on the following themes: A: World Pellets 2012, B: Market outlook, C: Energy systems, D: Transportation, E: World biorefinery 2012, F: Sustainable bioenergy day. 52 contributions in A - D. A: World Pellets 2012 is an integrated part of World Bioenergy 2012. A three day 'conference in the conference' covering all aspects of pellets: raw material potentials, innovative pellets production systems, torrefaction, new combustion technologies, trade and market development, health and safety aspects, etc. B) Market outlook: Policy and targets for renewable energy to find an alternative to fossil energy are being put in place, increasing the demand for sustainable modern bioenergy. Global trade and improved logistics open up to the markets. To facilitate international trade in bioenergy commodities, new trading places and indexes are needed, as well as generally accepted standards. Supply and demand must meet to guarantee stable prices. In this session you learn all about current market development, including drivers like incentives and policies. C) Energy Systems: Modern bioenergy is a young industry. Therefore, technical development is rapid, with many new innovations. This session focuses on technical development in the whole bioenergy chain, from harvesting of forest residues to combustion technologies and co-firing. Optimal use of biomass through district heating or cooling - small scale and large scale - and CHP technology for electricity production. D) Transportation: Sustainable transports are one of the key challenges of tomorrow. Can we transport biomass as well as other products sustainably and at what costs? Which are the future fuels for transports and when will biofuels be viewed as profitable? Biofuels for transport are under rapid development with new methods, producers and feedstock entering the markets. The future biofuels will be produced in biorefineries, to increase profitability and optimize feed

  2. Using ecological forecasting of future vegetation transition and fire frequency change in the Sierra Nevada to assess fire management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.

    2013-12-01

    Ecological systems may respond in complex manners as climate change progresses. Among the responses, site-level climate conditions may cause a shift in vegetation due to the physiological tolerances of plant species, and the fire return interval may change. Natural resource managers challenged with maintaining ecosystem health need a way to forecast how these processes may affect every location, in order to determine appropriate management actions and prioritize locations for interventions. We integrated climate change-driven vegetation type transitions with projected change in fire frequency for 45,203 km2 of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, containing over 10 land management agencies as well as private lands. This Magnitude of Change (MOC) approach involves classing vegetation types in current time according to their climate envelopes, and identifying which sites will in the future have climates beyond what that vegetation currently occurs in. Independently, fire models are used to determine the change in fire frequency for each site. We examined 82 vegetation types with >50 grid cell occurrences. We found iconic resources such as the giant sequoia, lower slope oak woodlands, and high elevation conifer forests are projected as highly vulnerable by models that project a warmer drier future, but not as much by models that project a warmer future that is not drier than current conditions. Further, there were strongly divergent vulnerabilities of these forest types across land ownership (National Parks versus US Forest Service lands), and by GCM. For example, of 50 giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and complexes, all but 3 (on Sierra National Forest) were in the 2 highest levels of risk of climate and fire under the GFDL A2 projection, while 15 groves with low-to-moderate risk were found on both the National Parks and National Forests 18 in the 2 under PCM A2. Landscape projections of potential MOC suggest that the region is likely to experience

  3. On the future role of Gulf oil in meeting world energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy Eltony, M.

    1996-01-01

    The validity of the view of a growing dependence of the world on oil from the Persian Gulf, and the resulting implications for the economies of the Gulf countries were examined. The prevailing view in the countries of the Persian Gulf is that the demand for oil will continue to rise, resulting in the inevitable increase in prices which will in turn alleviate the budget deficit problems currently encountered by most of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. The author argues that the implication of this view is that GCC countries are failing to address the fundamental structural problems within their economies, and raise questions that tend to undermine this hypothesis of continuing dependence on Gulf oil by the rest of the world. Some of these factors are growing reliance on electricity and natural gas, environmental concerns, development of alternative fuels, political instability in the Gulf states and the potential interruption in supply, all of which tend to accelerate the trend towards reduced demand for Gulf oil. The following have been recommended as ways of avoiding the ultimate risk of huge unwanted oil reserves: diversification of the economies of GCC countries; reduced spending and increased investment in developing further capacity from non-GCC sources through cooperation and joint ventures between developing countries and international companies; a more active role in worldwide decisions relating to environmental concerns; and finally, a systematic monitoring and evaluation of the likely impacts of new developments in all areas of alternative energy. 17 refs

  4. Retinopathy of prematurity: Past, present and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Parag K; Prabhu, Vishma; Karandikar, Smita S; Ranjan, Ratnesh; Narendran, Venkatapathy; Kalpana, Narendran

    2016-01-01

    Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a vasoproliferative disorder of the retina occurring principally in new born preterm infants. It is an avoidable cause of childhood blindness. With the increase in the survival of preterm babies, ROP has become the leading cause of preventable childhood blindness throughout the world. A simple screening test done within a few weeks after birth by an ophthalmologist can avoid this preventable blindness. Although screening guidelines and protocols are strictly followed in the developed nations, it lacks in developing economies like India and China, which have the highest number of preterm deliveries in the world. The burden of this blindness in these countries is set to increase tremendously in the future, if corrective steps are not taken immediately. ROP first emerged in 1940s and 1950s, when it was called retrolental fibroplasia. Several epidemics of this disease were and are still occurring in different regions of the world and since then a lot of research has been done on this disease. However, till date very few comprehensive review articles covering all the aspects of ROP are published. This review highlights the past, present and future strategies in managing this disease. It would help the pediatricians to update their current knowledge on ROP. PMID:26862500

  5. Electronic Resources in Science and Technology: Gopher and Its Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner, Suzanne T., Ed.

    1996-01-01

    An Associate Head of Information Services and the Internet Gopher project leader discuss the future of Gopher with the arrival of the World Wide Web. Strengths and weaknesses of both systems are addressed. One expert sees a future with new versions of both; the other predicts a next generation of information systems combining their features. (PEN)

  6. Radiation processing. Current status and future possibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, R.J.

    2000-01-01

    Radiation processing developed following the Second World War and employees gamma- or electron-irradiation to process polymers, cure alkene-based inks and coatings, sterilize medical supplies, irradiate food, and manage wastes. The current status of these applications is described with the probable direction of future developments. (author)

  7. Coal reserves in the United States and around the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jubert, K.; Masudi, H.

    1995-01-01

    There is an urgent need to examine the role that coal might play in meeting world energy needs during the next 20 years. Oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) can no longer be relied upon to provide expanding supplies of energy, even with rapidly rising prices. Neither can nuclear energy be planned on for rapid expansion worldwide until present uncertainties about it are resolved. Yet, the world's energy needs will continue to grow, even with vigorous energy conservation programs and with optimistic rates of expansion in the use of solar energy. Coal already supplies 25% of the world's energy, its reserves are vast, and it is relatively inexpensive. This study, with the aid of reports from the World Coal Study (WOCOL) examines the needs for coal on a global scale, its availability past and present, and its future prospects

  8. Coping with a fast-changing world: Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Weber, K. Matthias; Harper, Jennifer Cassingena; Könnölä, Totti; Carabias Barceló, Vicente

    2017-01-01

    Transformations linked to disruptive events are causing a shift in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) activities from individual large-scale foresight actions to smaller in-house exercises and capacity building. The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organ...

  9. Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi May Mitigate the Influence of a Joint Rise of Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 on Soil Respiration in Grasslands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vicca, S.; Zavalloni, C.; Fu, Y.S.H.; Ceulemans, R.; Nijs, I.; Janssens, I.A.; Voets, L.; Boulois, H.D.D.; Declerck, S.

    2009-01-01

    We investigated the effects of mycorrhizal colonization and future climate on roots and soil respiration (R soil) in model grassland ecosystems. We exposed artificial grassland communities on pasteurized soil (no living arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) present) and on pasteurized soil subsequently inoculated with AMF to ambient conditions and to a combination of elevated CO 2 and temperature (future climate scenario). After one growing season, the inoculated soil revealed a positive climate effect on AMF root colonization and this elicited a significant AMF x climate scenario interaction on root biomass. Whereas the future climate scenario tended to increase root biomass in the non inoculated soil, the inoculated soil revealed a 30% reduction of root biomass under warming at elevated CO 2 (albeit not significant). This resulted in a diminished response of R soil to simulated climatic change, suggesting that AMF may contribute to an attenuated stimulation of R soil in a warmer, high CO 2 world.

  10. Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi May Mitigate the Influence of a Joint Rise of Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 on Soil Respiration in Grasslands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Vicca

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the effects of mycorrhizal colonization and future climate on roots and soil respiration (Rsoil in model grassland ecosystems. We exposed artificial grassland communities on pasteurized soil (no living arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF present and on pasteurized soil subsequently inoculated with AMF to ambient conditions and to a combination of elevated CO2 and temperature (future climate scenario. After one growing season, the inoculated soil revealed a positive climate effect on AMF root colonization and this elicited a significant AMF x climate scenario interaction on root biomass. Whereas the future climate scenario tended to increase root biomass in the noninoculated soil, the inoculated soil revealed a 30% reduction of root biomass under warming at elevated CO2 (albeit not significant. This resulted in a diminished response of Rsoil to simulated climatic change, suggesting that AMF may contribute to an attenuated stimulation of Rsoil in a warmer, high CO2 world.

  11. UbiWorld: An environment integrating virtual reality, supercomputing, and design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Disz, T.; Papka, M.E.; Stevens, R. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Mathematics and Computer Science Div.

    1997-07-01

    UbiWorld is a concept being developed by the Futures Laboratory group at Argonne National Laboratory that ties together the notion of ubiquitous computing (Ubicomp) with that of using virtual reality for rapid prototyping. The goal is to develop an environment where one can explore Ubicomp-type concepts without having to build real Ubicomp hardware. The basic notion is to extend object models in a virtual world by using distributed wide area heterogeneous computing technology to provide complex networking and processing capabilities to virtual reality objects.

  12. Commentary Health research and policy in the Arab world: dealing ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    24 تشرين الأول (أكتوبر) 2013 ... The Arab World is witnessing critical transitions that will affect the future of our communities. Research and science play an instrumental role in ...

  13. Potential of energy efficiency measures in the world steel industry.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Galama, Tjebbe

    2013-01-01

    SUMMARY The world steel industry plays a major role in energy use and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions now and in the future. Implementing energy efficiency measures is among one of the most cost-effective investments that the industry could make in improv

  14. Technology and Changing Lifestyles. Teacher's Guide. Preparing for Tomorrow's World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iozzi, Louis A.

    "Technology and Changing Lifestyles" is one of the "Preparing for Tomorrow's World" (PTW) program modules. PTW is an interdisciplinary, future-oriented program incorporating information from the sciences and social sciences and addressing societal concerns which interface science/technology/society. The program promotes…

  15. World Energy Scenarios 2050: Impact of the Energy Governance Models to the Future of the European Energy Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kisel, E.

    2014-01-01

    World Energy Council has explored the impact of two extreme governance models of energy sector to the global economic and climate developments. Scenario 'Jazz' describes the world, where investments in the energy markets are made by the companies on the purely economic basis. Scenario 'Symphony' describes the world, where decisions about the energy investments are made by the governments. It appears that in case of Scenario 'Jazz' we would reach lower energy prices, but it would also bring along higher and wider consumption of energy, and much higher environmental impact. In case of Scenario 'Symphony' energy prices would be somewhat higher, but environmental and energy efficiency would deliver better results, and there will be more energy-poor people around the world. It can also be observed, that resulting energy mixes of these two scenarios are very different. When Scenario 'Jazz' would leave the share of fossil fuels nearly to the current levels, then Scenario 'Symphony' supports strongly development of Solar and Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Sequestration Technologies. The modelling was also made separately for different regions of the world, the results for Europe can be observed from the report as well. This provides a fruit for thought about the role of the governments in the implementation of the EU 2030 Energy and Climate Strategy. The presentation would describe shortly the methodology of the study, clarifies the assumptions of the scenarios and highlights the main outcomes of the study in for the world and for European energy sector. (author).

  16. The United States and world energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramsay, W.C.

    1992-01-01

    The United States, dominating the world's energy markets as a producer and consumer, is sensitive to changes in this market and intends to influence the development of global energy policy. Supply will be increased by nations such as Venezuela, Indonesia and perhaps in the future a United Yemen and the Commonwealth of Independent States, moving to freer market economies which will allow investment opportunities previously inaccessible to foreign companies. Although world energy demand will grow, little of this will be in the US where, under the National Energy Strategy, comprehensive measures are being introduced to improve energy efficiency. The US energy security will be further improved by such measures as diversification of supply, larger domestic production and increasing interdependence between suppliers, traders and consumers. (author)

  17. The changing pattern of the Western world enrichment industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paleit, J.A.

    1988-01-01

    Past and future changes in the long-term enrichment market of the Western world are discussed, mainly from an economic point of view. Major trends and issues are summarized in the following subjects: an abstract economic model of market forms; factors specific to the enrichment market for defining its overall place within the economic model; a description of the changing pattern (market forms) of the Western world enrichment market and its major regional components in the period 1973-95 (one of the last years of the US world-wide monopoly, and one of the last years of contracts concluded in the early 1970s, respectively); a commentary, on the basis of four 'perfect market' criteria, on the main factors influencing these changes; an outlook on the market in the year 2000. (author)

  18. Global climate change and California agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, L.; Rains, W.; Kennedy, L.

    1991-01-01

    This paper has highlighted some of the impacts that a warmer climate may have on agriculture in California. Because of the state's diverse geomorphology it is difficult to predict what crops will grow in which locations under future climate regimes. However, the potential interactions between warmer temperatures, higher CO 2 concentrations, and the factors that affect plant and animal growth may have major consequences for the competitive position of the state's agriculture. Forward-thinking research and public policies are required to assure that responses to climate change will optimize production systems under future constraints

  19. World Energy Outlook 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-11-09

    The world appears to be emerging from the worst economic crisis in decades. Many countries have made pledges under the Copenhagen Accord to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Commitments have also been made by the G-20 and APEC to phase out inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies. Are we, at last, on the path to a secure, reliable and environmentally sustainable energy system? Updated projections of energy demand, production, trade and investment, fuel by fuel and region by region to 2035 are provided in the 2010 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO). It includes, for the first time, a new scenario that anticipates future actions by governments to meet the commitments they have made to tackle climate change and growing energy insecurity. WEO-2010 shows: what more must be done and spent to achieve the goal of the Copenhagen Accord to limit the global temperature increase to 2 deg. C and how these actions would impact on oil markets; how emerging economies -- led by China and India -- will increasingly shape the global energy landscape; what role renewables can play in a clean and secure energy future; what removing fossil-fuel subsidies would mean for energy markets, climate change and state budgets; the trends in Caspian energy markets and the implications for global energy supply; the prospects for unconventional oil; and how to give the entire global population access to modern energy services. With extensive data, projections and analysis, this publication provides invaluable insights into how the energy system could evolve over the next quarter of a century. The book is essential reading for anyone with a stake in the energy sector.

  20. Women and development: future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-01-01

    In 1995 the UN celebrated its 50th anniversary, and the Fourth World Conference on Women in Beijing was held. INSTRAW's acting director, Martha Duenas-Loza, gives her overview of INSTRAW's future role and identifies some major issues regarding the advancement of women. INSTRAW is mandated as a UN group to accomplish research on and training of women. Some initial findings are now becoming available. The delay was due to the attention given to pressing problems of health care, nutrition, and education. In the future the international community will not have the option of neglecting women's status issues, which currently are secondary concerns. Some urgent issues are identified as the impact of rapid population growth on the elderly in the world, particularly the majority of elderly women. Migration will have an increasing impact on economic and social infrastructures of all countries. Problems of the elderly must be addressed as individual components within development plans and programs. Other articles in this issue of "INSTRAW News" discuss the situation of elderly women and women migrants. New efforts focus on a new phase of research on women's access to credit. The research aim is to analyze the experiences of current credit mechanisms, to assess the impact on individuals and families, and to consider gender effects. A progress report is available in this issue on gender statistics and a valuation of unpaid work by women. A new module is available for training women in environmental management; a description of this module is available in this issue. The new model is based on prior modules on energy and water, but includes improvements. The future agenda reflects the complexity of problems and solutions today and in the future.

  1. The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aleklett, Kjell; Hoeoek, Mikael; Jakobsson, Kristofer; Lardelli, Michael; Snowden, Simon; Soederbergh, Bengt

    2010-01-01

    The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided into 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil, and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletion-rate-of-recoverable-resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, analysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts. The connection between economic growth and energy use is fundamental in the IEA's present modelling approach. Since our forecast sees little chance of a significant increase in global oil production, our findings suggest that the 'policy makers, investors and end users' to whom WEO 2008 is addressed should rethink their future plans for economic growth. The fact that global oil production has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached the Peak of the Oil Age.

  2. Exploring the story, science, and adventure of small worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swann, J. L.; Elkins-Tanton, L. T.; Anbar, A. D.; Klug Boonstra, S.; Tamer, A. J.; Mead, C.; Hunsley, D.

    2017-12-01

    Small worlds are a strategic focus at NASA, reflected by missions such as Osiris Rex and Psyche among others. The Infiniscope project, with funding from NASA SMD, is building on this scientific and public interest to teach formal and informal learners about asteroids and other small worlds. The digital learning experience, "Where are the small worlds?", and future Infiniscope experiences, incorporate a design theory that we describe as "education through exploration" (ETX) which is provided through an adaptive e-learning platform. This design ensures that learners actively engage in exploration and discovery, while receiving targeted feedback to push through challenges. To ensure that this and future experiences reach and meet the needs of as many educators as possible, Infiniscope includes a digital teaching network to host the experiences and support the reuse and adaptation of digital resources in new lessons. "Where are the small worlds?" puts learners in an interactive simulation of the solar system and provides a mission structure in which they hunt for "astrocaches" on near earth objects, main belt asteroids, and Kuiper-belt objects. These activities allow the learner to discover the locations of the small worlds in the solar system and develop an intuitive understanding for the relative motion of objects at various distances from the Sun. The experience is NGSS-aligned and accompanied by a lesson plan for integration into the classroom. In testing with more than 500 middle-school students, 83% of participants said they wanted to do more experiences like "Where are the small worlds?" They also found the experience both "fun" and "interesting" while being moderately difficult. "Where are the small worlds?" is one of many visualizations and lessons that is available within the Infiniscope teaching network. The network already has hundreds of members and is expected to grow in both numbers and engagement over time. Currently, educators can search and use pre

  3. The Future for Mathematics Subject Associations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Sue

    2012-01-01

    Subject associations have developed, over the years, to serve the interests of the mathematics education community. We live in changing times, and education is often at the forefront of such change. So, to remain contemporary, relevant, and to have a regard for the future in a world influenced by technology, it is suggested that there is a need…

  4. The nuclear energy of the future: the researches and the objectives; L'energie nucleaire du futur: quelles recherches pour quels objectifs?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    Today energy problems are global problems. That is why the new generation of energy production by nuclear power must be realized basely on serious forecasts at a world scale. The nuclear energy presents many trumps for an energetic answer, at long-dated, concerning the environment and the resources. This will be for two main conditions: the ability to answer the public opinion anxiety and the development of new systems more high- performance in terms of safety and economy in the framework of the sustainable development and the non proliferation policy. These subjects are at the earth of the CEA missions. This document proposes a detailed presentation of the nuclear origins, the fuel and its cycle, the radioactive wastes and their management,the dismantling and the decommissioning of the nuclear installations, the challenges of the nuclear safety, the energy in the world, the nuclear economy, the nuclear in the world, the researches of the future, the third generation reactors, the research on radioactive wastes, the fuel cycle of the nuclear systems of the future, the uranium resources, the generation four forum, the gas coolant reactors, the thorium, hybrid systems and the thermonuclear fusion. (A.L.B.)

  5. List of the main scientific laboratories in the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iung, J.; Bourrely, H.; Bettembourg, O.; Roule, L.; Leroy, A.

    1956-01-01

    The Documentation Service of the French atomic energy commission (CEA) started in December 1955 a compilation list of the different public and private scientific institutes and laboratories over the world. This list aimed at facilitating the future exchanges between the CEA and other potential research organisations. Labs are sorted by country

  6. Use of Future Scenarios as a Pedagogical Approach for Science Teacher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paige, Kathryn; Lloyd, David

    2016-04-01

    Futures studies is usually a transdisciplinary study and as such embraces the physical world of the sciences and system sciences and the subjective world of individuals and cultures, as well as the time dimension—past, present and futures. Science education, where student interests, opportunities and challenges often manifest themselves, can provide a suitable entry point for futures work. In this paper, we describe how we have used futures themes, concepts and techniques both implicitly and explicitly in our undergraduate middle school teacher education courses and, in particular, science curriculum and general studies courses. Taking a critical orientation to the past and the present in these courses enables the future to be more than a mere reproduction of the status quo and opens up a range of possible futures in the areas of current interest. For example, having studied middle school teaching and learning in mathematics and science, students explore the past, present and possible future of a natural part of a university campus. In a general studies course on the science of the Earth's atmosphere, students construct a normative futures scenario on living in a changing climate. One way to gain insight into an uncertain future is to construct scenarios. This technique has been used since the 1970s to bring issues of environment and development—areas with strong science content—to the attention of both scientists and policymakers.

  7. The Future of Medical Dosimetry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adams, Robert D., E-mail: robert_adams@med.unc.edu

    2015-07-01

    The world of health care delivery is becoming increasingly complex. The purpose of this manuscript is to analyze current metrics and analytically predict future practices and principles of medical dosimetry. The results indicate five potential areas precipitating change factors: a) evolutionary and revolutionary thinking processes, b) social factors, c) economic factors, d) political factors, and e) technological factors. Outcomes indicate that significant changes will occur in the job structure and content of being a practicing medical dosimetrist. Discussion indicates potential variables that can occur within each process and change factor and how the predicted outcomes can deviate from normative values. Finally, based on predicted outcomes, future opportunities for medical dosimetrists are given.

  8. Using CAM3 and the Alkenone Method to Understand how Pliocene SST's Affect California and Other Climates Adjacent to Upwelling Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Searles, Z. A.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Dekens, P. S.

    2008-12-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report established with 90% confidence that anthropogenic climate change will result in a warmer world. In order to more fully understand possible future climate, past analogues of warm periods should be analyzed. The early Pliocene is an appropriate analogue because the continental configuration was similar to today and CO2 levels were comparable to present (~100ppm higher than pre-anthropogenic levels). This project has two objectives: 1.To test the atmospheric sensitivity to USGS PRISM2 dataset revised to better approximate proxy data indicating warmer SST's in upwelling regions and 2. To provide early-Pliocene (2.7- 3.5 Ma) SST estimates for ODP site 1018 on the California Margin (36°59.4'N, 123°16.5'W) using the UK'37 SST proxy. Recent UK'37 proxy data reveals that PRISM2 underestimates SST's in Pacific and Atlantic coastal upwelling regions. The sensitivity of the atmosphere to significantly warmer SST's in upwelling regions was tested using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmospheric Model, version 3 (CAM3). Initial conditions were supplied by the USGS PRISM2 project and include Pliocene SST's, vegetation cover, sea level height, topography, marine and continental ice extent. Pliocene SST's along the Californian, Peruvian, North African and South African margin were modified to reflect proxy observations from 4 sites. The lack of observational coverage (1 data point per region) required interpolation of the areal extent of the SST warming anomaly indicated by the proxies. Experiment results show increased cumulative precipitation and humidity in regions where the original PRISM2 predicted drying. The predicted North American increase in precipitation is in better agreement with geologic proxies indicating wetter conditions. Warmer SST's also causes weaker wind velocities along the North American, Peruvian, and North African margins, and stronger winds along the

  9. Stronger sexual selection in warmer waters: the case of a sex role reversed pipefish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuno M Monteiro

    Full Text Available In order to answer broader questions about sexual selection, one needs to measure selection on a wide array of phenotypic traits, simultaneously through space and time. Nevertheless, studies that simultaneously address temporal and spatial variation in reproduction are scarce. Here, we aimed to investigate the reproductive dynamics of a cold-water pipefish simultaneously through time (encompassing variation within each breeding cycle and as individuals grow and space (by contrasting populations experiencing distinct water temperature regimes in order to test hypothesized differences in sexual selection. Even though the sampled populations inhabited locations with very different water temperature regimes, they exhibited considerable similarities in reproductive parameters. The most striking was the existence of a well-defined substructure in reproductive activity, where larger individuals reproduce for longer periods, which seemed dependent on a high temperature threshold for breeding rather than on the low temperatures that vary heavily according to latitude. Furthermore, the perceived disparities among populations, such as size at first reproduction, female reproductive investment, or degree of sexual size dimorphism, seemed dependent on the interplay between seawater temperature and the operational sex ratio (OSR. Contrary to our expectations of an enhanced opportunity for sexual selection in the north, we found the opposite: higher female reproductive investment coupled with increased sexual size dimorphism in warmer waters, implying that a prolonged breeding season does not necessarily translate into reduced sexual selection pressure. In fact, if the limited sex has the ability to reproduce either continuously or recurrently during the entire breeding season, an increased opportunity for sexual selection might arise from the need to compete for available partners under strongly biased OSRs across protracted breeding seasons. A more general

  10. A world class nuclear research reactor complex for South Africa's nuclear future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keshaw, Jeetesh [South African Young Nuclear Professional Society, PO Box 9396, Centurion, 0157 (South Africa)

    2008-07-01

    South Africa recently made public its rather ambitious goals pertaining to nuclear energy developments in a Draft Policy and Strategy issued for public comment. Not much attention was given to an important tool for nuclear energy research and development, namely a well equipped and maintained research reactor, which on its own does not do justice to its potential, unless it is fitted with all the ancillaries and human resources as most first world countries have. In South Africa's case it is suggested to establish at least one Nuclear Energy Research and Development Centre at such a research reactor, where almost all nuclear energy related research can be carried out on par with some of the best in the world. The purpose of this work is to propose how this could be done, and motivate why it is important that it be done with great urgency, and with full involvement of young professionals, if South Africa wishes to face up to the challenges mentioned in the Draft Strategy and Policy. (authors)

  11. OIL AND GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ante Nosić

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy mineral resources markets are represented by complex supply and demand ratios which are depending on different factors such as technical (transport and geopolitical. The main specific of energy markets is represented by an uneven geographic distribution of hydrocarbon reserves and exploration on one hand and energy consumption on the other. World oil markets, although geographically localized, because of specific market trade, represent unique global market with decreasing price difference. Price differences are result of development of a transport possibilities of oil supply. Development of transport routes of natural gas and increasing number of liquefied natural gas terminals in the world give pressure to natural gas market and its integration into global gas market. Integration of regional gas markets into a common European gas market is main energy policy of EU concerning natural gas. On the other hand, there are still significant price differences on some markets (e.g. United States of America - South East Asia. Development of global energy markets is enabled by development of a futures and options contracts of an energy trade which have replaced bilateral contract deals between producers and consumers. Futures contracts are standardized contracts traded on exchanges. Buyer agrees to buy certain quantity of stock for an agreed upon price and with some future delivery date. Option is a contract which gives a buyer the option of the right to buy (or sell, depending on the option an asset at predetermined price and at a later date. Stocks price risk can be managed with the purchase and selling futures and options contracts. This paper deals with futures and options energy markets and their market strategies.

  12. Geothermal Power Supply Systems around the World and in Russia: State of the Art and Future Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butuzov, V. A.; Amerkhanov, R. A.; Grigorash, O. V.

    2018-05-01

    Solar and geothermal energy systems are shown to have received the widest use among all kinds of renewable sources of energy for heat supply purposes around the world. The power capacities and amounts of thermal energy generated by solar and geothermal heat supply systems around the world are presented by way of comparison. The thermal power capacity of solar heat supply systems installed around the world as of 2015 totaled 268.1 GW, and the thermal energy generated by them amounted to 225 TW h/year. The thermal power capacity of geothermal heat supply systems installed around the world totaled 70.3 GW, and the thermal energy generated by them amounted to 163 TW h/year. Information on the geothermal heat supply systems in the leading countries around the world based on the data reported at the World Geothermal Congress held in 2015 is presented. It is shown that China, with the installed thermal power capacities of its geothermal heat supply stations totaling 17.87 GW and the amount of thermal energy generated per annum equal to 48.435 TW h/year, is the world's leader in this respect. The structures of geothermal heat supply systems by the kinds of heat consumption used around the world are presented. The systems equipped with geothermal heat pumps accounted for 70.95% in the total installed capacity and for 55.3% in the total amount of generated heat. For systems that do not use heat pumps, those serving for pools account for the largest share amounting to 44.74% in installed capacity and to 45.43% in generated heat. A total of 2218 geothermal wells with the total length equal to 9534 km (with 38.7% of them for heat supply purposes) were drilled in 42 countries in the period from 2010 to 2014. In Russia, geothermal heat supply systems are in operation mainly in Dagestan, in Krasnodar krai, and in Kamchatka. The majority of these systems have been made without breaking the stream after the well outlet. A cyclic control arrangement is also used. The combined

  13. UNESCO World Conference on Education for Sustainable Development: Learning Today for a Sustainable Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal of Education for Sustainable Development, 2012

    2012-01-01

    The UNESCO World Conference on Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) will be co-organised in 2014 by UNESCO and the Government of Japan on the occasion of the end of the UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development. It has the following objectives: (1) Celebrating a decade of action; (2) Reorienting education to build a better future…

  14. HISTORY OF LAND RESOURCES MANAGEMENT AND THE PLANT WORLD: WHAT WE TAKE THE FUTURE?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidia Borisovna Kuzina

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of management of land resources and flora in connection with the history of Russian statehood, legislative acts is considered. The specifics of legislation on land and nature are described. The structure of top-level management in the post-Soviet period in the Russian Federation and in the world community is described.

  15. Nuclear proliferation in South Asia: current and future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, M.J.

    1996-01-01

    The security of all the countries in the world must be sought through general and complete disarmament. The longer the world waits, the more difficult will the eventual task become. The prime goal should be to make the world a safer place not just for the present, but also for future generations. What is needed is simultaneously a top down global approach and also a down up regional approach. Hence, that is all the more reason for greater realism, sensitivity and flexibility on part of both the nuclear weapon states and the non-nuclear weapon states to deal with what is basically a human problem. 40 refs

  16. Virtual worlds. Meta-analysis of educational experiences from its beginnings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Manuel DÍAZ FERNÁNDEZ

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Over a decade has passed since the specialized scientific literature presented in 2004 the first educational experience with virtual worlds. An evolutionary period that requires analysis to determine the adequacy of the developed experiences so far, enabling the formulation of guidelines and / or aspects to consider in future experiences to achieve better adjustment and adaptation to the specific framework.The investigation lies within the meta-analytic paradigm, with a quantitative and systematic review of the results of the 36 experiences that have been accessed, projecting an analysis and review of the same by using a form of observation, new and validated, in which a number of desirable compliance parameters are set, based on the current framework established by different experts.The results show a high degree of adaptation in didactic and pedagogical aspects, as well as communication and interaction, being lower in technical and support aspects, which can influence the work in virtual worlds. On the other hand, errors not meet the characteristics of the participants are detected. Failure to take into account their degree of socialization, their digital knowledge or communication skills in these environments, determines the validity of the designs and implementations, being important to consider in future experiences with virtual worlds.

  17. World energy needs and their impact on nuclear reactor development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foell, W.K.

    1977-01-01

    This presentation will place primary emphasis upon energy demand. The presentation will cover the following areas: energy reserves and resources; energy demand: past and future (mid-and long-term); industrialized regions of the world; developing countries: Mexico and Iran as examples; and potential impact on nuclear development

  18. Dissecting Future Aerosol Emissions. Warming Tendencies and Mitigation Opportunities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Streets, D.G. [Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, IL, 60439 (United States)

    2007-04-15

    Future global emissions of aerosols will play an important role in governing the nature and magnitude of future anthropogenic climate change. We present in this paper a number of future scenarios of emissions of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) by world region, which we combine with sulfate (SO4) assessed in terms of the emissions of its precursor, SO2. We find that aerosol emissions from the household and industrial sectors are likely to decline along almost all future pathways. Transportation emissions, however, are subject to complex interacting forces that can lead to either increases or decreases. Biomass burning declines in many scenarios, but the Amazon rainforests remain vulnerable if unsustainable economic growth persists. East Asia is the key region for primary aerosols, and trends in China will have a major bearing on the direction and magnitude of releases of BC (expected reductions in the range of 640-1290 Gg), OC (reductions of 520-1900 Gg), and SO2 (ranging from an increase of 21 Tg to a reduction of 30 Tg). Analysis of joint BC, OC, and SO2 emission changes identifies a number of key world regions and economic sectors that could be effectively targeted for aerosol reductions.

  19. In modelling effects of global warming, invalid assumptions lead to unrealistic projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefevre, Sjannie; McKenzie, David J; Nilsson, Göran E

    2018-02-01

    In their recent Opinion, Pauly and Cheung () provide new projections of future maximum fish weight (W ∞ ). Based on criticism by Lefevre et al. (2017) they changed the scaling exponent for anabolism, d G . Here we find that changing both d G and the scaling exponent for catabolism, b, leads to the projection that fish may even become 98% smaller with a 1°C increase in temperature. This unrealistic outcome indicates that the current W ∞ is unlikely to be explained by the Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT) and, therefore, GOLT cannot be used as a mechanistic basis for model projections about fish size in a warmer world. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. The nuclear energy of the future: the researches and the objectives; L'energie nucleaire du futur: quelles recherches pour quels objectifs?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    Today energy problems are global problems. That is why the new generation of energy production by nuclear power must be realized basely on serious forecasts at a world scale. The nuclear energy presents many trumps for an energetic answer, at long-dated, concerning the environment and the resources. This will be for two main conditions: the ability to answer the public opinion anxiety and the development of new systems more high- performance in terms of safety and economy in the framework of the sustainable development and the non proliferation policy. These subjects are at the earth of the CEA missions. This document proposes a detailed presentation of the nuclear origins, the fuel and its cycle, the radioactive wastes and their management,the dismantling and the decommissioning of the nuclear installations, the challenges of the nuclear safety, the energy in the world, the nuclear economy, the nuclear in the world, the researches of the future, the third generation reactors, the research on radioactive wastes, the fuel cycle of the nuclear systems of the future, the uranium resources, the generation four forum, the gas coolant reactors, the thorium, hybrid systems and the thermonuclear fusion. (A.L.B.)

  1. G8 decision on fusion would herald nuclear future

    CERN Multimedia

    Starck, Peter

    2005-01-01

    Nuclear fusion as a future abundant energy source would receive a boost if G8 leaders agree next month on the site for the world's first fusion test reactor, two nuclear scientists said on Wednesday (1 page)

  2. International cooperation in advanced nuclear systems. An option for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dee, J.B.; Kupitz, J.; O'Hara, F.

    1986-10-01

    Long-term energy problems are shared by all countries through world trade, and only a global solution can alleviate the anticipated future energy supply shortages for all. The only non-polluting, technologically-proven future energy supply options are offered by advanced nuclear power systems that utilize uranium and thorium as fertile fuel materials. For this reason, every major country with a nuclear power industry has a development programme for fast breeder and/or advanced converter nuclear power reactors. In these programmes international ventures have become the rule rather that the exception. The development of special district heating reactor systems is progressing as a CMEA collaboration. In the field of fast breeder reactors such ventures include the SNR-300, the FBTF, the Superphenix, and also the commercialization programmes BN-800/1600 (COMECON) and the Superphenix-II (ARGO group). The basic objective of the IAEA is to enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity around the world. For those Member States with development programmes the Agency promotes status and planning, to share experience on prototype plant operation, and to cooperate in identifying critical development issues. For Member States without major programmes, the Agency compiles authoritative and objective world-wide plant data, publishes reports on world-wide development status, coordinates small exploratory research programmes and provides technical assistance through expert services and equipment procurement. By providing the only existing global forum for promoting East-West and North-South inter-communication these IAEA activities encourage cooperation between countries engaged in development and inform countries interested to know more about the role of advanced reactors for meeting their future energy needs, which will become today's energy needs in the not-too-distant future

  3. Entangled world. The fascination of quantum information and computation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Audretsch, J.

    2006-01-01

    In the quantum world, a particle can behave like a wave and accordingly seems to be in two places at the same time. This of course is contradictory to our daily experiences with classical particles. How then should this be understood? What happens in the transitional area between the classical world and quantum mechanics? The present book answers exciting questions like these in a way that is easy to follow and to understand and it shows that the link between these two worlds will have concrete and applied effects on our daily life in the near future. It will, for example, improve and change the conventional methods of information processing. With the help of quantum cryptography, it will be possible to communicate tap-proof. Using quantum computers we will be able to solve highly complicated problems in a very short time. (orig.)

  4. Redesigning the World Trade Organization for the Twenty-First ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    15 déc. 2009 ... Two high-level commissions — the Sutherland report in 2004 and the Warwick Commission report in 2007 — addressed the future of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and made proposals for incremental reform. This book goes further. It explains why institutional reform of the WTO is needed at this ...

  5. Our World Their World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brisco, Nicole

    2011-01-01

    Build, create, make, blog, develop, organize, structure, perform. These are just a few verbs that illustrate the visual world. These words create images that allow students to respond to their environment. Visual culture studies recognize the predominance of visual forms of media, communication, and information in the postmodern world. This…

  6. Olympic and world sport: making transnational society?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giulianotti, Richard; Brownell, Susan

    2012-06-01

    This paper introduces the special issue of the British Journal of Sociology on the subject of the transnational aspects of Olympic and world sport. The special issue is underpinned by the perspective that because sport provides a space for the forging of transnational connections and global consciousness, it is increasingly significant within contemporary processes of globalization and the making of transnational society. In this article, we examine in turn eight social scientific themes or problems that are prominent within the special issue: globalization, glocalization, neo-liberal ideologies and policies, transnational society, securitization, global civil society, transnational/global public sphere, and fantasy/imagination. We conclude by highlighting five 'circles' of future research inquiry within world sport that should be explored by social scientists. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2012.

  7. The future of nuclear engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beeden, Jeffrey

    2003-01-01

    Today, nuclear power refers to the splitting of large uranium atoms into smaller atoms with a net release of energy. Tomorrow, nuclear power will refer to the combining of hydrogen into larger atoms with a net release of energy. Nuclear power's future is fusion. The Mechanical Engineers of tomorrow will need to be familiar with the process of creating and harnessing the energy from a fusion reaction. During the oil shortage in the 1970's, America scrambled to initiate alternative methods of producing power. Nuclear fusion was one of them. As time passes, the solution to the world's energy crisis presses the countries of the world to find alternative forms of energy; nuclear fusion may contain the answer. In the near future, the field of fusion will open up and a new wave of engineers will flood into this field. Mechanical engineers will lead the way with advances in materials, computational fluid dynamics, finite element analysis for thermal and structural systems, and heat transfer designs to optimize nuclear fusion reactors and power plants. All this effort is in anticipation of creating a sustained fusion reaction that can generate enough heat to transfer to steam in order to generate electric power to sustain the fusion reaction and introduce power to the grid. (author)

  8. Epidemiology of violent deaths in the world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reza, A; Mercy, J A; Krug, E

    2001-06-01

    This study describes epidemiologic patterns of mortality due to suicide, homicide, and war for the world in order to serve as a benchmark against which to measure future progress and to raise awareness about violence as a global public health problem. The world and its eight major regions. Data were derived from The Global Burden of Disease series and the US National Center for Health Statistics to estimate crude rates, age adjusted rates, sex rate ratios, and the health burden for suicide, homicide, and war related deaths for the world and its eight major regions in 1990. In 1990, an estimated 1,851,000 people died from violence (35.3 per 100,000) in the world. There were an estimated 786,000 suicides. Overall suicide rates ranged from 3.4 per 100,000 in Sub-Saharan Africa to 30.4 per 100,000 in China. There were an estimated 563,000 homicides. Overall homicide rates ranged from 1.0 per 100,000 in established market economies to 44.8 per 100,000 in Sub-Saharan Africa with peaks among males aged 15-24 years old, and among females aged 0-4 years old. There were an estimated 502,000 war related deaths with peaks in rates for both sexes among people aged 0-4, 15-29, and 60-69 years old. The number of violence related deaths in the world is unacceptably high. Coordinated prevention and control efforts are urgently needed.

  9. Future of nuclear energy is promising

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stritar, A.

    1999-01-01

    Paper is trying to clearly present the facts about World nuclear energy production in the past and in the future. The production has increased in last ten years for about 26% and will continue to grow. After next ten years we can expect between 12,5% and 25% higher production than this year. Therefore we, nuclear professionals, should not be pessimistic. We should strive not to use negative words in our communications between ourselves and especially to general public. Instead, we should proudly underline our achievements in the past and prospects for the future stressing all the benefits of this type of energy production.(author)

  10. Globalization: prospects of future international cooperation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinu, I.P.

    2001-01-01

    As the world is moving into a new millennium, its energy needs are increasing. Next to nuclear generation alternative there is no power that creates more concern because of the many global and public issues and because of a large impact over the future. There is much discussion about globalization at this end of millenium, when human kind has already experienced atomic bomb and Chernobyl is haunting our dreams. But many benefits of nuclear in all area of life leads us to idea we have to assess before to choose, apply individual by local needs and policy and - most important - not impede the future generation to choose, its turn. (author)

  11. Blaming for a better future: future orientation and associated intolerance of personal uncertainty lead to harsher reactions toward innocent victims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bal, Michèlle; van den Bos, Kees

    2012-07-01

    People are often encouraged to focus on the future and strive for long-term goals. This noted, the authors argue that this future orientation is associated with intolerance of personal uncertainty, as people usually cannot be certain that their efforts will pay off. To be able to tolerate personal uncertainty, people adhere strongly to the belief in a just world, paradoxically resulting in harsher reactions toward innocent victims. In three experiments, the authors show that a future orientation indeed leads to more negative evaluations of an innocent victim (Study 1), enhances intolerance of personal uncertainty (Study 2), and that experiencing personal uncertainty leads to more negative evaluations of a victim (Study 3). So, while a future orientation enables people to strive for long-term goals, it also leads them to be harsher toward innocent victims. One underlying mechanism causing these reactions is intolerance of personal uncertainty, associated with a future orientation.

  12. Physical Responses of Convective Heavy Rainfall to Future Warming Condition: Case Study of the Hiroshima Event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenshi Hibino

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available An extreme precipitation event happened at Hiroshima in 2014. Over 200 mm of total rainfall was observed on the night of August 19th, which caused floods and many landslides. The rainfall event was estimated to be a rare event happening once in approximately 30 years. The physical response of this event to the change of the future atmospheric condition, which includes a temperature increase on average and convective stability change, is investigated in the present study using a 27-member ensemble experiment and pseudo global warming downscaling method. The experiment is integrated using the Japan Meteorological Research Institute non-hydrostatic regional climate model. A very high-resolution horizontal grid, 500 m, is used to reproduce dense cumulonimbus cloud formation causing heavy rainfall in the model. The future climate condition determined by a higher greenhouse gas concentration is prescribed to the model, in which the surface air temperature globally averaged is 4 K warmer than that in the preindustrial era. The total amounts of precipitation around the Hiroshima area in the future experiments are closer to or slightly lower than in the current experiments in spite of the increase in water vapor due to the atmospheric warming. The effect of the water vapor increase on extreme precipitation is found to be canceled out by the suppression of convection due to the thermal stability enhancement. The fact that future extreme precipitation like the Hiroshima event is not intensified is in contrast to the well-known result that extreme rainfall tends to be intensified in the future. The results in the present study imply that the response of extreme precipitation to global warming differs for each rainfall phenomenon.

  13. Ubiquitous Wireless Sensor Networks and future “Internet of Things""

    OpenAIRE

    Vermesan, Ovidiu

    2009-01-01

    Overview of heterogeneous networks of embedded devices that can range from RFID, to smart identifiable systems with sensing and actuating capabilitie. Presentation of wireless sensor networks protocols and Internet of Things future technology. Bridging the real, virtual and digital worlds by using wireless connectivity. Application examples in automotive, aeronautics, healthcare, building, oil and gas industries. Ubiquitous Wireless Sensor Networks and future “Internet ...

  14. Lessons from two high CO2 worlds - future oceans and intensive aquaculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Robert P; Urbina, Mauricio A; Wilson, Rod W

    2017-06-01

    Exponentially rising CO 2 (currently ~400 μatm) is driving climate change and causing acidification of both marine and freshwater environments. Physiologists have long known that CO 2 directly affects acid-base and ion regulation, respiratory function and aerobic performance in aquatic animals. More recently, many studies have demonstrated that elevated CO 2 projected for end of this century (e.g. 800-1000 μatm) can also impact physiology, and have substantial effects on behaviours linked to sensory stimuli (smell, hearing and vision) both having negative implications for fitness and survival. In contrast, the aquaculture industry was farming aquatic animals at CO 2 levels that far exceed end-of-century climate change projections (sometimes >10 000 μatm) long before the term 'ocean acidification' was coined, with limited detrimental effects reported. It is therefore vital to understand the reasons behind this apparent discrepancy. Potential explanations include 1) the use of 'control' CO 2 levels in aquaculture studies that go beyond 2100 projections in an ocean acidification context; 2) the relatively benign environment in aquaculture (abundant food, disease protection, absence of predators) compared to the wild; 3) aquaculture species having been chosen due to their natural tolerance to the intensive conditions, including CO 2 levels; or 4) the breeding of species within intensive aquaculture having further selected traits that confer tolerance to elevated CO 2 . We highlight this issue and outline the insights that climate change and aquaculture science can offer for both marine and freshwater settings. Integrating these two fields will stimulate discussion on the direction of future cross-disciplinary research. In doing so, this article aimed to optimize future research efforts and elucidate effective mitigation strategies for managing the negative impacts of elevated CO 2 on future aquatic ecosystems and the sustainability of fish and shellfish

  15. Adaptable Single Active Loop Thermal Control System (TCS) for Future Space Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudawar, Issam; Lee, Seunghyun; Hasan, Mohammad

    2015-01-01

    This presentation will examine the development of a thermal control system (TCS) for future space missions utilizing a single active cooling loop. The system architecture enables the TCS to be reconfigured during the various mission phases to respond, not only to varying heat load, but to heat rejection temperature as well. The system will consist of an accumulator, pump, cold plates (evaporators), condenser radiator, and compressor, in addition to control, bypass and throttling valves. For cold environments, the heat will be rejected by radiation, during which the compressor will be bypassed, reducing the system to a simple pumped loop that, depending on heat load, can operate in either a single-phase liquid mode or two-phase mode. For warmer environments, the pump will be bypassed, enabling the TCS to operate as a heat pump. This presentation will focus on recent findings concerning two-phase flow regimes, pressure drop, and heat transfer coefficient trends in the cabin and avionics micro-channel heat exchangers when using the heat pump mode. Also discussed will be practical implications of using micro-channel evaporators for the heat pump.

  16. Strategic library futures

    CERN Document Server

    Baker, David

    2014-01-01

    This ebook focuses on the future of libraries and the strategies which they should best adopt in order to respond effectively to significantly changed circumstances and requirements. This ebook, then, looks at the significant challenges facing librarians as they adopt new technologies and adapt to a world that can never be the same again. But all the authors in this ebook are able to paint a positive picture of developments, with a wide range of descriptions of how librarianship is transforming itself to help shape and lead information and resource provision and discovery in ways unimaginable

  17. Geothermal energy in Croatia and the world until 2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jelic, K.; Kevric, I.; Cubric, S.

    1996-01-01

    The use of geothermal energy in watering place, heating, the production of electric power, and for other purposes is increasing throughout the world. Over the past ten years, besides traditional production from natural thermal wells, this energy has also been produced in Croatia from geothermal wells discovered as a results of deep exploration drilling for hydrocarbons. This paper analyses the current state of geothermal energy both in the world and in Croatia, and makes projections about its immediate future. Energy potential data on the croatian part of the Panonian basin are given along with perspective locations for producing this ecologically acceptable and partially reusable energy. (author)

  18. Assessing the future of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moncomble, J.E.

    2015-01-01

    The World Energy Council has designed 2 tools named Jazz and Symphonie that allow the assessment of the potential impacts of energy choices on the future in terms of climate warming, investments, energy mix,... The Jazz roadmap aims at energy equity which means individual access to energy at a reasonable cost while the Symphonie roadmap focuses on environmental issues through appropriate practice and coordinated international policies. Both tools are integrated it means that they describe a whole world by most of its aspects: population, GDP per capita, number of cars by inhabitant, economic growth... A basic application of both tools shows that in 2050 the nuclear power will have increased (compared to today's level) but the share of nuclear power in the energy mix will have decreased for Jazz and increased for Symphonie. (A.C.)

  19. WORLD HEALTH DAY THEMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S C Saxena

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available 1970 - Early Detection of Cancer Saves Life. 1971- A Full Life Despite Diabetes. 1972 - Your Heart is Your Health. 1973 - Health Begins at Home. 1974- Better Food for a Healthier World. 1975 - Small Pox - Point of no Return. 1976 - Foresight Prevents Blindness. 1977 - Immunise and Protect Your Child. 1978 - Down With High Blood Pressure. 1979     - A Health Child-A Sure Future. 1980     - Smoking or Health - The Choice is Yours. 1981     - Health for all for by the Year 2000. 1982     - Add Years to Life. 1983     - Health for all by 2000 - The Count Down has Begun 1984     - Children’s Health: Tomorrows Wealth. 1985     - Health Youth : Our best Resource. 1986     - Health Living - Everyone a Winner. 1987     - Immunisation - A Chance for Every Child. 1988     - Health For All - All for Health. 1989-Let’s Talk Health. 1990    - Our Planet - Ourhealth; Think Globally, Act Locally. 1991    - Should Disaster Strike - Be Prepared. 1992    - Health Beat - The Rhythm of Life. 1993    - Handle Life with Care - Prevent Violence and Negligence. 1994    - Our Health for a Healthy Life. 1995    - Target - 2000 - A World Without Polio. 1996    - Healthy Cities for Better Life. 1997    - Emerging Infectious Diseases. 1998    - Safe Motherhood. 1999 - Active Ageing Makes the Difference. 2000 - Be a Life Saver, Be a Blood Doner; Blood Saves Life. 2001- Stop Exclusion, Dare to Care. 2002 - Move for Health. - Shape the Future of Life, Healthy Environments for Children

  20. Analysis of the Economic Potential for a Mercosur Rice Futures Market

    OpenAIRE

    Waldemar Antonio da Rocha de Souza; João Gomes Martines-Filho; Claudio Zancan; Antonio Carlos Silva Costa; Andreza Galindo Alves de Queiróz

    2015-01-01

    World rice production reached 488.4 thousand tons, in 2012. Asian countries are the world’s largest rice producers, followed by Latinamerica, particularly Brazil, where rice is a basic food item. In spite of the clear economic benefits bestowed by commodity futures markets, neither Asia nor Mercosur have implemented a regional rice futures market. In sum, we propose to investigate the feasibility of a Brazilian rice futures contract to serve the Mercosur region by estimating Me...

  1. World law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harold J. Berman

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available In the third millennium of the Christian era, which is characterised by the emergence of a world economy and eventually a world society, the concept of world law is needed to embrace not only the traditional disciplines of public international law, and comparative law, but also the common underlying legal principles applicable in world trade, world finance, transnational transfer of technology and other fields of world economic law, as well as in such emerging fields as the protection of the world's environment and the protection of universal human rights. World law combines inter-state law with the common law of humanity and the customary law of various world communities.

  2. World energy: a study in inequality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fells, I.

    1984-01-01

    The proceedings of the 12th World Energy Conference are discussed under the headings: developing countries' standpoint (energy and food famine, great increase in population); biogas perhaps the answer; coal - 'expensive misjudgement' (over-optimistic predictions of demand, but developing countries an important future coal market); price of stack gas clean-up; explaining the nuclear case (need to explain nuclear case to counter the anti-nuclear lobby); collaborative fast reactor development in Europe; nuclear energy in developing countries; fuel for transport - a neglected subject. (U.K.)

  3. 6th world congress of chemical engineering. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The 6th World Congress of Chemical Engineering, held in Melbourne, was structured around 6 Vision Lectures which lead to 800 oral presentations and 600 poster presentations, spanning the entire range of chemical engineering. The main topics of the Congress were: environment, health and safety; energy; industrial applications; process simulation and control; management and education and the future. Items in INIS scope have been separately indexed

  4. Hydroelectric power generation in an Alpine basin: future water-energy scenarios in a run-of-the-river plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongio, Marco; Avanzi, Francesco; De Michele, Carlo

    2016-08-01

    We investigate scenarios of hydroelectric power generation for an Alpine run-of-the-river plant in 2050. To this end, we include a conversion from streamflow to energy in a hydrological model of the basin, and we introduce a set of benchmark climate scenarios to evaluate expected future production. These are a "future-like-present" scenario assuming future precipitation and temperature inputs to be statistically equivalent to those observed during the recent past at the same location, a "warmer-future" scenario, which considers an additional increase in temperature, and a "liquid-only" scenario where only liquid precipitation is admitted. In addition, two IPCC-like climatic scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are considered. Uncertainty in glaciers' volume is accounted by initializing the hydrological model with two different inventories of glaciers. Ensemble results reveal that 1) an average decrease between -40% and -19% of hydroelectric power generation in 2050 is predicted at the plant considered (with respect to present condition); 2) an average decrease between -20% and -38% of cumulative incoming streamflow volume at the plant is also predicted, again with respect to present condition; 3) these effects are associated with a strong average decrease of the volume of glaciers (between -76% and -96%, depending on the initial value considered). However, Monte Carlo simulations show that results are also prone to high uncertainties. Implications of these results for run-of-the-river plants are discussed.

  5. Nuclear energy and its future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, D.J.

    1990-01-01

    The status of nuclear power in the world and its future are briefly discussed. It is shown that nuclear power capacity is increasing in the Asian and Pacific rim region and that new reactor designs, with the increased emphasis on safety and standardisation, could make nuclear power a more acceptable option in the future. The author also outlines the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organization wide range of skills and facilities which are bringing the benefits of nuclear science and technology to Australia. These include: the development of Synroc as an advanced second generation waste management; production of radiotracers for biomedical researches and environmental problems; application of gamma irradiation in industry and of ion beam analysis in biology, archaeology, semi-conductor and environmental science. 2 tabs

  6. AL Qaeda, Trends in Terrorism and Future Potentialities: An Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hoffman, Bruce

    2003-01-01

    This paper assesses current trends in terrorism and future potentialities. It examines first the presumed state of al Qaeda today with particular reference to its likely agenda in a post-Iraq war world...

  7. Three ingredients for a healthy future

    CERN Multimedia

    2010-01-01

    In my messages, I usually focus on one subject at a time. This week, however, there are three points I wish to draw to your attention: safety, the Laboratory’s urban plan and the opening up of CERN to potential new  Member States. The first two are featured in this issue of the Bulletin, while the opening of CERN will be covered in a future issue. So on that subject, all I wish to say for now is that I believe it’s a very important step not only for CERN, but also for particle physics in general. Over recent meetings, resolutions adopted by the Council offer countries all over the world the opportunity to participate in our programmes in a fair and equitable way, while at the same time ensuring that CERN is ready to play its part in a future large project wherever in the world it may be. Let me now move on to safety. Always at the top of this Laboratory’s agenda, we have decided to reinforce CERN’s safety culture by putting the emphasis on occupational h...

  8. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  9. Future directions of small research reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blotcky, A.J.; Rack, E.P.

    1986-01-01

    In prognosticating future perspectives, it is important to realize that the current number of small reactors throughout the world is not overly large and will undoubtedly decrease or at best remain constant in future generations. To survive and remain productive, small reactor facilities must concentrate on work that is unique and that cannot be performed as well by other instruments. Wherever possible, these facilities should develop some form of collaboration with universities and medical center investigators. Future development will continue and will flourish in neutron activation analysis and its applications for a diversity of fields. Fundamental research such as hot atom chemistry will continue to use neutrons from small research reactors. Finally, training of power reactor operators can be an important source of revenue for the small facility in addition to performing an important service to the nuclear power industry

  10. Brighter future predicted at nuclear meetings in Chicago

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stein, H.

    1993-01-01

    This article discusses the future of nuclear power in the United States and the rest of the world. It is a summary of a meeting of the American Nuclear Society/European Nuclear Society in Chicago. Some topics discussed include advanced reactor design, public relations, and nuclear safety

  11. Living on the Future Edge: Windows on Tomorrow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jukes, Ian; McCain, Ted; Crockett, Lee

    2010-01-01

    "Living on the Future Edge" challenges school leaders to rethink longstanding paradigms and transform pedagogy for tomorrow's learners. Apple Computer, Inc. co-founder Steve Wozniak's foreword underscores the overwhelming need to adjust traditional instruction to fit today's high-tech world. The book explores this new landscape and…

  12. Systems of the future; Les systemes du futur

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-01-15

    The world population growth will impact largely on the energy and electric power demand in the future. Facing the decrease of the hydrocarbons reserves, the international community decided to work together to develop a new generation of nuclear systems. In this context, coordinated researches are realized first with a short dated objective on the development of innovations for PWR type reactors and second with a middle dated on the development of new systems in an international framework (essentially Generation IV). Theses research programs are presented below. The first part is devoted to the different generation of reactors (I to IV) and to the third generation; the second part deals with the international framework of the researches, the french strategy and the european dimension. (A.L.B.)

  13. Future glaciation in Fennoscandia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forsstroem, L. [Oulu Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Geosciences

    1999-09-01

    Cyclic growing and melting of great ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere is typical for the Quaternary Period, and it is likely that this cycle will continue in the future. This report discusses the principal processes predicted to occur during the future glaciation which are likely to be of importance for a nuclear waste repository. It is a revised version of a synthesis of the results of two state-of-the art reports, working meetings and a seminar. Based on present knowledge, two alternative trends (A and B) can be presented for fluctuations in climate in Fennoscandia. According to forecast A the climate will gradually become colder, permitting the growth of glaciers in the mountainous areas of Norway and Sweden after 5000 years. After a minor warmer period, a greater ice advance will cover a large part of Finland around 20 000 years from now. After a new minor interstade, the ice will advance again, so that c. 60 000 years from now the Stockholm-Helsinki region will be covered by thick ice. The ice sheet will melt partially at 70 000 years AP, but then it will grow to its maximum around 100 000 years AP and cover the whole Baltic basin. Almost complete melting of the ice sheet will take place during the next interglaciation c. 120 coo years AP. According to forecast B the growth of the ice sheet will not begin for another 50 000 years, and Finland will be covered by ice about 60 000 years from now. After a minor melting, the ice sheet will enlarge and cover almost the whole Baltic basin 100 000 years from now. During the following ice minimum, at 120 000 years AP, the ice sheet will still cover northern Finland. At 150 000 years it will cover the whole Baltic basin, but then it will melt almost completely by 165 000 years from now, during the following interglaciation. In both forecasts the main changes caused by the ice sheet will be downwarping/uplift of the crust and changes in sea level. In addition, changes in the groundwater head and flux are foreseen

  14. WorldWide Telescope in High School Astronomy Competitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constantin, Ana-Maria; Goodman, A. A.; Udomprasert, P. S.

    2014-01-01

    This project aims to improve astronomy education at the high school level, and to increase awareness in astronomy for pre-university students, on an international scale. In 2013, the WorldWide Telescope Ambassadors Program began a collaboration with the International Olympiad in Astronomy and Astrophysics (IOAA), which was held in the city of Volos, Greece in August 2013. Now at its VIIth edition, IOAA is the largest annual astronomy competition for high school students, and it consists of one team task and three individual ones - Theoretical, Data Analysis, and Observational. Each of the participating countries (35 in 2013, compared to 21 in 2007) is responsible for selecting up to five representative students for the International round. IOAA is meant to promote future collaborations between these students, and to encourage friendships inside a global scientific community. Ana-Maria Constantin, a current Harvard undergraduate student and a former medalist of IOAA, represented WorldWide Telescope Ambassadors in Greece by giving a talk on the advantages of using WWT as a tool for research and education. As a result, the President and the International Board of the Olympiad have expressed support for including WWT in the competition for future editions. WWTA is working with the Organizing Board for next year’s competition in Romania, to include WWT as a testing tool. This poster will summarize key points from the WWTA presentation in Greece, present ideas for WWT-based activities in future IOAA competitions, and outline plans for new collaborations from representatives of Sri Lanka, Poland, Bangladesh, and Colombia. Given the positive feedback we have received after the presentation in Greece, we are also considering future implementations of WWT in summer research camps for high school students, such as the Summer Science Program.

  15. Center for Environmental Information's Ninth International Conference on Global Energy Strategies : Living with Restricted Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    CERN Document Server

    1993-01-01

    The world is getting warmer. Among scientists concerned with global climate change this is the broad consensus. How fast and by how much, are questions which cannot be answered quantitatively, but the probability of rising temperatures must be faced in a prudent manner - there is enough certainty of change so that we must anticipate and prepare before irreparable damage is done to our world. Even if it isn't going to be as bad as some people think, the actions we propose will benefit the earth and give us a kind of insurance. The root of the change is population growth, and its attendant demand for energy. While the developed world expects to hold future emissions relatively steady, the developing countries, where population growth is most rampant, will expand the use of energy as they aspire to a better quality of life. H greater energy use is inevitable it behooves us to produce that energy in the least objectionable manner, and to produce it where the cost is lowest in dollars, GNP, and environmental chang...

  16. Edwin – Wosu, N

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER21

    SPECIES OF CUCURBITS AMONG THE PEOPLE OF NIGER DELTA. NIGERIA ... –sized prostrate runner, primarily found in the Warmer regions of the world, and a ... bounding the western periphery and on the south by the. Atlantic Ocean .... various part of the world, as has been noted in Asian continent and some West ...

  17. World health organization perspective on implementation of International Health Regulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardiman, Maxwell Charles

    2012-07-01

    In 2005, the International Health Regulations were adopted at the 58th World Health Assembly; in June 2007, they were entered into force for most countries. In 2012, the world is approaching a major 5-year milestone in the global commitment to ensure national capacities to identify, investigate, assess, and respond to public health events. In the past 5 years, existing programs have been boosted and some new activities relating to International Health Regulations provisions have been successfully established. The lessons and experience of the past 5 years need to be drawn upon to provide improved direction for the future.

  18. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-01

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO 2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The fundamental assumptions

  19. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-15

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

  20. The Relationship of the World Wide Web to Thinking Skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Amy C.; Bishop, Jeanne L.; Gens, Linda S.; Miller, Sharla L.; Rogers, Martha A.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses use of the World Wide Web in education and its possibilities for developing higher order critical thinking skills to successfully deal with the demands of the future information society. Suggests that teachers need to provide learning environments that are learner-centered, authentic, problem-based, and collaborative. (Contains 61…

Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.