WorldWideScience

Sample records for future trends based

  1. Current and Future Trends in Game-Based Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Vaz de Carvalho

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The first number of the second volume of the EAI Transactions on Serious Games focuses on the results presented on the European Conference on Game-Based Learning. This event, already on the 8th edition, has set standards in terms of presentation of research and practice and in the pointing out of new and future trends in the development of Game-Based Learning. As such, we are quite thrilled to be able to report them here.

  2. Current and future trends in metagenomics : Development of knowledge bases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Hiroshi; Yamada, Takuji; Kurokawa, Ken

    Microbes are essential for every part of life on Earth. Numerous microbes inhabit the biosphere, many of which are uncharacterized or uncultivable. They form a complex microbial community that deeply affects against surrounding environments. Metagenome analysis provides a radically new way of examining such complex microbial community without isolation or cultivation of individual bacterial community members. In this article, we present a brief discussion about a metagenomics and the development of knowledge bases, and also discuss about the future trends in metagenomics.

  3. Future Trends in Reliability-Based Bridge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    Future bridge management systems will be based on simple stochastic models predicting the residual strength of structural elements. The current deterministic management systems are not effective in optimizing e.g. the life cycle cost of a bridge or a system of bridges. A number of important factors...

  4. Simulation of Change Trend of Drought in Shaanxi Province in Future Based on PRECIS Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The aim was to predict the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province in future. [Method] Based on the regional climate model PRECIS from Hadley Climate Center, British Meteorological Bureau, taking precipitation anomaly percentage as assessment index, the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province in reference years (1971-1990) was simulated, and the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province from 2071 to 2100 was predicted. [Result] The simulated value of drought frequency in reference year...

  5. Past, Present, and Future Trends in Teaching Clinical Skills through Web-Based Learning Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe Regan, Jo Ann R.; Youn, Eric J.

    2008-01-01

    Distance education in social work has grown significantly due to the use of interactive television and computer networks. Given the recent developments in delivering distance education utilizing Web-based technology, this article presents a literature review focused on identifying generational trends in the development of Web-based learning…

  6. Biomaterials based strategies for skeletal muscle tissue engineering: existing technologies and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qazi, Taimoor H; Mooney, David J; Pumberger, Matthias; Geissler, Sven; Duda, Georg N

    2015-01-01

    Skeletal muscles have a robust capacity to regenerate, but under compromised conditions, such as severe trauma, the loss of muscle functionality is inevitable. Research carried out in the field of skeletal muscle tissue engineering has elucidated multiple intrinsic mechanisms of skeletal muscle repair, and has thus sought to identify various types of cells and bioactive factors which play an important role during regeneration. In order to maximize the potential therapeutic effects of cells and growth factors, several biomaterial based strategies have been developed and successfully implemented in animal muscle injury models. A suitable biomaterial can be utilized as a template to guide tissue reorganization, as a matrix that provides optimum micro-environmental conditions to cells, as a delivery vehicle to carry bioactive factors which can be released in a controlled manner, and as local niches to orchestrate in situ tissue regeneration. A myriad of biomaterials, varying in geometrical structure, physical form, chemical properties, and biofunctionality have been investigated for skeletal muscle tissue engineering applications. In the current review, we present a detailed summary of studies where the use of biomaterials favorably influenced muscle repair. Biomaterials in the form of porous three-dimensional scaffolds, hydrogels, fibrous meshes, and patterned substrates with defined topographies, have each displayed unique benefits, and are discussed herein. Additionally, several biomaterial based approaches aimed specifically at stimulating vascularization, innervation, and inducing contractility in regenerating muscle tissues are also discussed. Finally, we outline promising future trends in the field of muscle regeneration involving a deeper understanding of the endogenous healing cascades and utilization of this knowledge for the development of multifunctional, hybrid, biomaterials which support and enable muscle regeneration under compromised conditions.

  7. Future trends in international terrorism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jenkins

    1985-12-01

    This survey offers a depressing but conservative view of future trends in terrorism. Terrorism persists. It may double in volume, but the world does not end in terrorist anarchy. Few changes are foreseen in terrorist tactics or targets. Terrorists will escalate their violence, their attacks will become more indiscriminate, we may see political demands based upon threats of food contamination, but terrorists probably will not enter the Armageddon world of mass destruction. Terrorism will become institutionalized as a mode of armed conflict for some, no less legitimate than other modes of conflict. The media will increase its ability to cover terrorist incidents; we will see even more terrorism. The extraordinary security measures taken against terrorism will have become a permanent part of the landscape, of our life style. They will no longer attract comment. That may be the most insidious and perhaps the most worrisome development in the coming years. Terrorism will become an accepted fact of contemporary life--commonplace, ordinary, banal, and therefore somehow tolerable.

  8. Regulatory and Other Trends Relevant to Acquisition and Planning for the Future Defense Industrial Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-01

    Acquisition and Planning for the Future Defense Industrial Base 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT...expanding  SB 484 and 1379 -- CA, 2005 and 2006, disclosure of chemicals in cosmetics and US’s first bio-monitoring program cataloguing human exposure to...Biomonitoring shows bioaccumulation of chemicals in humans and animal kingdom  New understanding of intergenerational effects  Public/worker

  9. Future trends in image coding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habibi, Ali

    1993-01-01

    The objective of this article is to present a discussion on the future of image data compression in the next two decades. It is virtually impossible to predict with any degree of certainty the breakthroughs in theory and developments, the milestones in advancement of technology and the success of the upcoming commercial products in the market place which will be the main factors in establishing the future stage to image coding. What we propose to do, instead, is look back at the progress in image coding during the last two decades and assess the state of the art in image coding today. Then, by observing the trends in developments of theory, software, and hardware coupled with the future needs for use and dissemination of imagery data and the constraints on the bandwidth and capacity of various networks, predict the future state of image coding. What seems to be certain today is the growing need for bandwidth compression. The television is using a technology which is half a century old and is ready to be replaced by high definition television with an extremely high digital bandwidth. Smart telephones coupled with personal computers and TV monitors accommodating both printed and video data will be common in homes and businesses within the next decade. Efficient and compact digital processing modules using developing technologies will make bandwidth compressed imagery the cheap and preferred alternative in satellite and on-board applications. In view of the above needs, we expect increased activities in development of theory, software, special purpose chips and hardware for image bandwidth compression in the next two decades. The following sections summarize the future trends in these areas.

  10. Support vector machine based estimation of remaining useful life: current research status and future trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Hong Zhong; Wang, Hai Kun; Li, Yan Feng; Zhang, Longlong; Liu, Zhiliang [University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu (China)

    2015-01-15

    Estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) is helpful to manage life cycles of machines and to reduce maintenance cost. Support vector machine (SVM) is a promising algorithm for estimation of RUL because it can easily process small training sets and multi-dimensional data. Many SVM based methods have been proposed to predict RUL of some key components. We did a literature review related to SVM based RUL estimation within a decade. The references reviewed are classified into two categories: improved SVM algorithms and their applications to RUL estimation. The latter category can be further divided into two types: one, to predict the condition state in the future and then build a relationship between state and RUL; two, to establish a direct relationship between current state and RUL. However, SVM is seldom used to track the degradation process and build an accurate relationship between the current health condition state and RUL. Based on the above review and summary, this paper points out that the ability to continually improve SVM, and obtain a novel idea for RUL prediction using SVM will be future works.

  11. Biorefinery based on olive biomass. State of the art and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero-García, J M; Niño, L; Martínez-Patiño, C; Álvarez, C; Castro, E; Negro, M J

    2014-05-01

    With currently more than nine million hectares, olive tree cultivation has spread worldwide, table olives and olive oil as the main products. Moreover, a number of by-products and residues derived from both tree cultivation and the process of industrial olive oil production, most having no practical applications, are obtained yearly. This paper reviews the research regarding these by-products, namely biomass from olive tree pruning, olive stones, olive pomace and wastewaters obtained from the process of olive oil production. Furthermore, a wide range of compounds has been identified and can be produced using a broad definition of the term biorefinery based on olive tree biomass. As an example, this paper reviews ethanol production as one of the main proposed applications, as well as research on other value-added products. Finally, this paper also assesses recent technological advances, future perspectives and challenges in each stage of the process.

  12. Multidecadal Trends in Large-Scale Annual Mean SATa Based on CMIP5 Historical Simulations and Future Projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nan Xing

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 results, multidecadal variations and trends in annual mean surface air temperature anomalies (SATa at global, hemispheric, and hemispheric land and ocean scales in the past and under the future scenarios of two representative concentration pathways (RCPs are analyzed. Fifteen models are selected based on their performances in capturing the temporal variability, long-term trend, multidecadal variations, and trends in global annual mean SATa. Observational data analysis shows that the multidecadal variations in annual mean SATa of the land and ocean in the northern hemisphere (NH and of the ocean in the southern hemisphere (SH are similar to those of the global mean, showing an increase during the 1900–1944 and 1971–2000 periods, and flattening or even cooling during the 1945–1970 and 2001–2013 periods. These observed characteristics are basically reproduced by the models. However, SATa over SH land show an increase during the 1945–1970 period, which differs from the other hemispheric scales, and this feature is not captured well by the models. For the recent hiatus period (2001–2013, the projected trends of BCC-CSM1-1-m, CMCC-CM, GFDL-ESM2M, and NorESM1-ME at the global and hemispheric scales are closest to the observations based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting that these four models have better projection capability in SATa. Because these four models are better at simulating and projecting the multidecadal trends of SATa, they are selected to analyze future SATa variations at the global and hemispheric scales during the 2006–2099 period. The selected multi-model ensemble (MME projected trends in annual mean SATa for the globe, NH, and SH under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5 are 0.17 (0.29 °C, 0.22 (0.36 °C, and 0.11 (0.23 °C·decade−1 in the 21st century, respectively. These values are significantly lower than the projections of CMIP5 MME without model

  13. Predicting future trends in stock market by decision tree rough-set based hybrid system with HHMM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shweta Tiwari

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Around the world, trading in the stock market has gained huge attractiveness as a means through which, one can obtain vast profits. Attempting to profitably and precisely predict the financial market has long engrossed the interests and attention of bankers, economists and scientists alike. Stock market prediction is the act of trying, to determine the future value of a company’s stock or other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange. Accurate stock market predictions are important for many reasons. Chief among all is the need for investors, to hedge against potential market risks and the opportunities for arbitrators and speculators, to make profits by trading indexes. Stock Market is a place, where shares are issued and traded. These shares are either traded through Stock exchanges or Overthe-Counter in physical or electronic form. Data mining, as a process of discovering useful patterns, correlations has its own role in financial modeling. Data mining is a discipline in computational intelligence that deals with knowledge discovery, data analysis and full and semi-autonomous decision making. Prediction of stock market by data mining techniques has been receiving a lot of attention recently. This paper presents a hybrid system based on decision tree- rough set, for predicting the trends in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSESENSEX with the combination of Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model. In this paper we present future trends on the bases of price earnings and dividend. The data on accounting earnings when averaged over many years help to predict the present value of future dividends.

  14. Future trends in environmental impact of eucalyptus-based Kraft pulp industry in Thailand: a scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jawjit, W.; Kroeze, C.; Soontaranun, W.; Hordijk, L.

    2008-01-01

    This study explores possible future trends in the environmental impact of the Kraft pulp industry in Thailand between 2000 and 2020. Scenarios were developed to analyze the effect of different options to reduce the future environmental impact, and the costs associated with the implementation of thes

  15. Future trends in environmental impact of eucalyptus-based Kraft pulp industry in Thailand: a scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jawjit, W.; Kroeze, C.; Soontaranun, W.; Hordijk, L.

    2008-01-01

    This study explores possible future trends in the environmental impact of the Kraft pulp industry in Thailand between 2000 and 2020. Scenarios were developed to analyze the effect of different options to reduce the future environmental impact, and the costs associated with the implementation of

  16. Simulation-based Validation of Smart Grids - Status Quo and Future Research Trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steinbrink, C.; Lehnhoff, S.; Rohjans, S.

    2017-01-01

    such cyber-physical energy systems with a high(er) penetration of fluctuating renewable generation and controllable loads. As a result of these developments the validation on the system level becomes much more important during the whole engineering and deployment process, today. In earlier development stages......Smart grid systems are characterized by high complexity due to interactions between a traditional passive network and active power electronic components, coupled using communication links. Additionally, automation and information technology plays an important role in order to operate and optimize...... and for larger system configurations laboratory-based testing is not always an option. Due to recent developments, simulation-based approaches are now an appropriate tool to support the development, implementation, and rollout of smart grid solutions. This paper discusses the current state of simulation...

  17. Forced degradation studies: current trends and future perspectives for protein-based therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Christine P

    2016-07-01

    Forced degradation (FD) studies (stress testing) are an integral part of pharmaceutical product development. The design and execution of these studies require thorough planning and coordination through the various stages of development as well as post-approval commercial operations. This is particularly crucial in the case for protein-based therapeutics due to complexity of the molecular structure as well as the potential influence of the manufacturing process on product attributes. Often, FD study applications are linked to specific product development in a phase-specific and case-by-case manner with differing purposes and focus. Expert commentary: This paper summarizes some key FD approaches commonly employed in the industry and provides considerations on study design strategies and database management through the course of the product lifecycle.

  18. Future trends in spacecraft design and qualification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venneri, Samuel L.; Hanks, Brantley R.; Pinson, Larry D.

    1986-01-01

    Material and structures issues that must be resolved in order to develop the technology data base needed to design and qualify the next generation of large flexible spacecraft are discussed. This invoves the development of new ground test and analysis methods and the conduct of appropriate instrumented in-space flight experiments for final verification. A review of present understanding of material behavior in the space environment and identification of future needs is presented. The dynamic verification and subsequent qualification of a spacecraft structure currently rely heavily on ground-based tests, coupled with the verified analysis model. Future space structures, such as large antennas, Space Station and other large platforms, will be of sizes difficult to test using current ground test methods. In addition to size, other complex factors, such as low natural frequencies, lightweight construction and many structural joints, will also contribute significant problems to the test and qualification process in an Earth-gravity environment. These large spacecraft will also require new technology for controlling the configuration and dynamic deformations of the structures. Future trend in large flexible structures will also involve long-life design missions (10 to 20 years). In low earth orbit (LEO), materials will be subjected to repeated thermal cycles, ultraviolet radiation, atomic oxygen and vacuum. For high orbits such as geo-synchronous earth orbit (GEO), the materials will also be subjected to large doses of high energy electrons and protons. Understanding degradation and material stability over long-mission time periods will confront the designer with many issues that are unresolved today.

  19. Future Trends in the Kinesiology Sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudson, Duane

    2016-01-01

    Kinesiology emerged from its preventative medicine and education roots to establish itself as a recognized field of inquiry with numerous sub-disciplines. This article presents four trends in modern science that will likely influence the future of kinesiology sciences. Will recent increases in greater scientific specialization be overcome by the…

  20. [Shifting paradigm in skull base surgery: Roots, current state of the art and future trends of endonasal endoscopic approaches].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berhouma, M; Messerer, M; Jouanneau, E

    2012-02-01

    During the last two decades, endoscopic endonasal approach has completed the minimally invasive skull base surgery armamentarium. Endoscopic endonasal skull base surgery (EESBS) was initially developed in the field of pituitary adenomas, and gained an increasing place for the treatment of a wide variety of skull base pathologies, extending on the midline from crista galli process to the occipitocervical junction and laterally to the parasellar areas and petroclival apex. Until now, most studies are retrospective and lack sufficient methodological quality to confirm whether the endoscopic endonasal pituitary surgery has better results than the microsurgical trans-sphenoidal classical approach. The impressions of the expert teams show a trend toward better results for some pituitary adenomas with the endoscopic endonasal route, in terms of gross total resection rate and probably more comfortable postoperative course for the patient. Excepting intra- and suprasellar pituitary adenomas, EESBS seems useful for selected lesions extending onto the cavernous sinus and Meckel's cave but also for clival pathologies. Nevertheless, this infatuation toward endoscopic endonasal approaches has to be balanced with the critical issue of cerebrospinal fluid leaks, which constitutes actually the main limit of this approach. Through their experience and a review of the literature, the authors aim to present the state of the art of this approach as well as its limits.

  1. Factors influencing junior doctors' choices of future specialty: trends over time and demographics based on results from UK national surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Fay; Lambert, Trevor W; Goldacre, Michael J

    2015-10-01

    To study trends in factors influencing junior doctors' choice of future specialty. Respondents were asked whether each of 15 factors had a great deal of influence on their career choice, a little influence or no influence on it. Percentages are reported of those who specified that a factor had a great deal of influence on their career choice. UK. A total of 15,765 UK-trained doctors who graduated between 1999 and 2012. Questions about career choices and factors which may have influenced those choices, in particular comparing doctors who qualified in 2008-2012 with those who qualified in 1999-2002. Enthusiasm for and commitment to the specialty was a greater influence on career choice in the 2008-2012 qualifiers (81%) than those of 1999-2002 (64%), as was consideration of their domestic circumstances (43% compared with 20%). Prospects for promotion were less important to recent cohorts (16%) than older cohorts (21%), as were financial prospects (respectively, 10% and 14%). Domestic circumstances and working hours were considered more important, and financial prospects less important, by women than men. Inclination before medical school was rated as important by 41% of doctors who were over 30 years old, compared with 13% of doctors who were under 21, at the time of starting medical school. The increasing importance of both domestic circumstances and enthusiasm for their specialty choice in recent cohorts suggest that today's young doctors prize both work-life balance and personal fulfilment at work more highly than did their predecessors. The differences in motivations of older and younger generations of doctors, men and women, and doctors who start medical school relatively late are worthy of note. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  2. Future trends in commercial and military systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, F. E.

    Commercial and military satellite communication systems are addressed, with a review of current applications and typical communication characteristics of the space and earth segments. Drivers for the development of future commercial systems include: the pervasion of digital techniques and services, growing orbit and frequency congestion, demand for more entertainment, and the large potential market for commercial 'roof-top' service. For military systems, survivability, improved flexibility, and the need for service to small mobile terminals are the principal factors involved. Technical trends include the use of higher frequency bands, multibeam antennas and a significant increase in the application of onboard processing. Military systems will employ a variety of techniques to counter both physical and electronic threats. The use of redundant transmission paths is a particularly effective approach. Successful implementation requires transmission standards to achieve the required interoperability among the pertinent networks. For both the military and commercial sectors, the trend toward larger numbers of terminals and more complex spacecraft is still persisting.

  3. Group practice--trend for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furumoto, H H

    1983-11-01

    Group practices in various forms and combinations appear to set the trend for small animal practice management. By pooling their financial resources, energies, and talents, veterinarians can share the burden of increasing overhead costs and enjoy the benefits of specialization, new technologies, continuing education, consultations and referrals, peer review, applied research and publication, and fringe benefits such as paid vacation and sick leave, profit sharing, and pension. Group practices preserve ownership continuity at fair market value and afford opportunities for the utilization of expert business consultants. There are prerequisites to establishing a successful group practice: An adequate personal income base, a sufficient pet population, and business associates with compatible practice philosophy. Special considerations must be given to the social, economic, and psychological forces at work in a group practice environment. Professional and personal interactions can make or break a group practice. The group concept, MIP treatment of clients and their pets, and personalized appointments are important features which must be emphasized. The law of supply and demand and the law of diminishing returns must be kept in focus at all times. In tandem, they dictate the fortunes of all business enterprises and group practices can be particularly vulnerable to them. Long-term business commitment is a condition of group practice ownership and may pose a conflict with other interests. A predetermined buy-sell agreement and deferred compensation plan may provide the answer in case of dissolution, termination, or early retirement. A system of animal and material transport and transfer of business transactions and medical records must be set up between satellite clinics and the base hospital. A hospital-owned-and-operated shuttle service appears to offer the greatest flexibility and convenience. Cost-effectiveness of a shuttle service depends on the volume of referral

  4. An overview of current applications, challenges, and future trends in distributed process-based models in hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, Simone; Vivoni, Enrique R.; Ogden, Fred L.; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Mirus, Benjamin; Gochis, David; Downer, Charles W.; Camporese, Matteo; Davison, Jason H.; Ebel, Brian; Jones, Norm; Kim, Jongho; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Niswonger, Richard; Restrepo, Pedro; Rigon, Riccardo; Shen, Chaopeng; Sulis, Mauro; Tarboton, David

    2016-06-01

    Process-based hydrological models have a long history dating back to the 1960s. Criticized by some as over-parameterized, overly complex, and difficult to use, a more nuanced view is that these tools are necessary in many situations and, in a certain class of problems, they are the most appropriate type of hydrological model. This is especially the case in situations where knowledge of flow paths or distributed state variables and/or preservation of physical constraints is important. Examples of this include: spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture, groundwater flow and runoff generation, sediment and contaminant transport, or when feedbacks among various Earth's system processes or understanding the impacts of climate non-stationarity are of primary concern. These are situations where process-based models excel and other models are unverifiable. This article presents this pragmatic view in the context of existing literature to justify the approach where applicable and necessary. We review how improvements in data availability, computational resources and algorithms have made detailed hydrological simulations a reality. Avenues for the future of process-based hydrological models are presented suggesting their use as virtual laboratories, for design purposes, and with a powerful treatment of uncertainty.

  5. An overview of current applications, challenges, and future trends in distributed process-based models in hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, Simone; Vivoni, Enrique R.; Odgen, Fred L; Ivanov, Valeriy Y; Mirus, Benjamin B.; Gochis, David; Downer, Charles W; Camporese, Matteo; Davison, Jason H; Ebel, Brian A.; Jones, Norm; Kim, Jongho; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Niswonger, Richard; Restrepo, Pedro; Rigon, Riccardo; Shen, Chaopeng; Sulis, Mauro; Tarboton, David

    2016-01-01

    Process-based hydrological models have a long history dating back to the 1960s. Criticized by some as over-parameterized, overly complex, and difficult to use, a more nuanced view is that these tools are necessary in many situations and, in a certain class of problems, they are the most appropriate type of hydrological model. This is especially the case in situations where knowledge of flow paths or distributed state variables and/or preservation of physical constraints is important. Examples of this include: spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture, groundwater flow and runoff generation, sediment and contaminant transport, or when feedbacks among various Earth’s system processes or understanding the impacts of climate non-stationarity are of primary concern. These are situations where process-based models excel and other models are unverifiable. This article presents this pragmatic view in the context of existing literature to justify the approach where applicable and necessary. We review how improvements in data availability, computational resources and algorithms have made detailed hydrological simulations a reality. Avenues for the future of process-based hydrological models are presented suggesting their use as virtual laboratories, for design purposes, and with a powerful treatment of uncertainty.

  6. Financial Management of Libraries: Past Trends and Future Prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Stephen A.

    2003-01-01

    The financial environment within library and information services is reviewed and a structure for financial management is presented based on funding source and level of commercial activity. Objectives for financial management of library and information services is developed and reviewed in light of future trends and stakeholder perspectives.…

  7. An Exploration of Future Trends in Environmental Education Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardoin, Nicole M.; Clark, Charlotte; Kelsey, Elin

    2013-01-01

    This article describes future trends in environmental education (EE) research based on a mixed-methods study where data were collected through a content analysis of peer-reviewed articles published in EE journals between 2005 and 2010; interviews with experts engaged in EE research and sustainability-related fields; surveys with current EE…

  8. Process-based morphodynamic modeling of the Yangtze Estuary at a decadal timescale: Controls on estuarine evolution and future trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luan, Hua Long; Ding, Ping Xing; Wang, Zheng Bing; Ge, Jian Zhong

    2017-08-01

    Understanding the decadal morphodynamic evolution of estuaries and deltas and their controls is of vital importance regarding management for estuarine function and sustainable development. This work addresses this issue by applying a process-based model system (Delft3D) to hindcast and then forecast the morphodynamic evolution of the Yangtze Estuary at a decadal timescale. Forced by the river and tides, the model considers sand-mud mixture and the variations of river water discharge and sediment discharge. The morphodynamic model is validated against three periods, i.e., an accretion period (1958-1978), an erosion period (1986-1997) and a recent accretion period with human activities (2002 - 2010). Model results show good performance with respect to spatial erosion and deposition patterns, sediment volume changes, and hypsometry curves. The model reveals quite different behaviors for mud transport between the dry and wet seasons, which is subject to the prescription of river boundary conditions and bed composition. We define six scenarios to project evolution to the year 2030 under decreased river inputs and increased relative sea level. The simulations reveal that overwhelming amount of erosion will likely occur in the inner and mouth bar area of the estuary. Particularly, the mouth zone will shift from net deposition before 2010 to net erosion by 2030, mainly because of decreasing sediment supply. Changes in water discharge have minor effects on the projected trend. Net erosion will be considerable when the sediment supply is extremely low (100 Mt yr- 1) due to the abundance of erodible modern sediment in the Yangtze Estuary. Erosion within the mouth bar area may be unexpected, including the deepening of the tidal inlet at East Chongming mudflat and the formation of a flood channel on the seaward side of Jiuduansha Shoal. Overall, the model results provide valuable information for sustainable delta management under changing conditions for both the Yangtze system

  9. Global trends in future hydrological drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Lanen, H.; Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics worldwide (i.e. duration and intensity of drought in runoff). However, the magnitude and sign of the change is largely unknown. In this study we quantify impact of climate change on future low flows and hydrological droughts characteristics on a global scale. The global hydrological and water resources model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate future river runoff at 0.5 degree globally on a daily basis. The newly available CMIP5 climate projections were obtained through the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). The model was forced with the daily transient climate fields taken from five GCMs and four underlying emission scenarios (here accounted for by using four Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs). The monthly Q80 (20 percentile lowest flow) was used to evaluate the changes in low flows and as the threshold level for the hydrological drought characterisation. The monthly threshold was smoothed to allow for drought calculations on a daily basis. The thresholds in the future remained transient and were calculated over the climatology of the last 30 year period to reflect the adaptation of society to new conditions. Trends in the thresholds and drought characteristics were analysed over the period 2000-2099. Results for most GCMs and all RCPs showed that Q80 discharge (low flow metric) indicates a significant negative trend in large parts of South America, Central Africa, the Mediterranean and South East Asia. Under the higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios of RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, the USA and Central and South Europe were also projected to have drier conditions. For all future projections Russia and Canada were expected to get wetter during the 21st century. Under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the results generally showed the strongest negative changes in future low flow. The results simulated with most GCMs agree well over many parts of the world, however

  10. Green nanotechnology of trends in future energy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Kelvii Wei

    2011-06-01

    It is well known that current fossil fuel usage is unsustainable and associated with greenhouse gas production. The amount of the world's primary energy supply provided by renewable energy technologies is required urgently. Therefore, the relevant technologies such as hydrogen fuel, solar cell, biotechnology based on nanotechnology and the relevant patents for exploiting the future energy for the friendly environment are reviewed. At the same time, it is pointed out that the significantly feasible world's eco-energy for the foreseeable future should not only be realized, but also methods for using the current energy and their by-products more efficiently should be found correspondingly to ensure the minimal environmental impact.

  11. High-quality lossy compression: current and future trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Steven W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper is concerned with current and future trends in the lossy compression of real sources such as imagery, video, speech and music. We put all lossy compression schemes into common framework where each can be characterized in terms of three well-defined advantages: cell shape, region shape and memory advantages. We concentrate on image compression and discuss how new entropy constrained trellis-based compressors achieve cell- shape, region-shape and memory gain resulting in high fidelity and high compression.

  12. The Past and Future Trends of Heat Stress Based On Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index in Outdoor Environment of Tehran City, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid HABIBI MOHRAZ

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: The workers who are working in the open and warm environments are at risk of health effects of climate and heat changes. It is expected that the risk is increase with global warming. This study aimed to investigate the changes of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT index in the past and to predict their trend of future changes in Tehran, capital of Iran.Methods: The meteorological data recorded in Tehran, Iran during the statistical period between 1961 and 2009 were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization and based on them, WBGT index was calculated and processed using Man-Kendall correlation test.Results: The results of Man-Kendall correlation test showed that the trend of changes of annual mean WBGT during the statistical period under study (1961-2009 has been significantly increasing. In addition, the result of proposed predictive model estimated that an increase of about 1.55 degree in WBGT index will be seen over 40 years from 2009 to 2050 in Tehran.Conclusion: Climate change in Tehran has had an effect on person's exposure to heat stresses consistent with global warming. Keywords: Climate change, Heat stress, WBGT, Global warming

  13. Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

    2016-06-01

    Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

  14. Glaucoma: present challenges and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bettin, Paolo; Di Matteo, Federico

    2013-01-01

    The authors indicate four key issues which, in their opinion, represent the most stimulating challenges in the field of glaucoma today, and describe the present approaches and the developments that can be expected or advised in the near future: (1) Glaucoma is often undiagnosed or diagnosed too late. Accurate detection is crucial to correctly recognize and treat affected subjects, thus reducing the disability and the social burden of the disease. Is glaucoma screening advisable and cost-effective? What strategies can be implemented to achieve an earlier diagnosis? (2) What role can genetics play in glaucoma clinics? (3) What are the fundamentals and the limits of medical hypotensive and nonhypotensive treatment of glaucoma today, and what novelties could be introduced in the next few years? (4) What are the current and future options for glaucoma surgery? Should we aim at reducing aqueous production or at enhancing aqueous outflow? What are the success figures and the pros and cons of ab externo procedures with external filtration (trabeculectomy, nonpenetrating techniques and glaucoma drainage devices) and of ab externo techniques with internal filtration (viscocanalostomy and canaloplasty)? Will microinvasive procedures ever play a role in the treatment of the disease? These questions and the possible future developments in the management of glaucoma are discussed critically, based on the current clinical state of the art, on a review of the literature, and on an everyday experience in a busy university hospital glaucoma service.

  15. The Future of Outdoor Recreation. What the Trends Tell Us.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLellan, Gina

    1986-01-01

    The author looked at trend data presented at the 1985 National Outdoor Recreation Trends Symposium and synthesized the results to offer insights into the future of outdoor recreation. Discussed are social, activity, private sector recreational, economic, tourism, and policy trends. (MT)

  16. The Future of Outdoor Recreation. What the Trends Tell Us.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLellan, Gina

    1986-01-01

    The author looked at trend data presented at the 1985 National Outdoor Recreation Trends Symposium and synthesized the results to offer insights into the future of outdoor recreation. Discussed are social, activity, private sector recreational, economic, tourism, and policy trends. (MT)

  17. Rethinking reference for academic libraries innovative developments and future trends

    CERN Document Server

    Forbes, Carrie

    2014-01-01

    Rethinking Reference for Academic Libraries: Innovative Developments and Future Trends, containing five sections and fourteen chapters, reviews the current state of reference services in academic libraries with an emphasis on innovative developments and future trends. The main theme that runs through the book is the urgent need for inventive, imaginative, and responsive reference and research services.

  18. Drafting: Current Trends and Future Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, C.

    1976-01-01

    Various research findings are reported on drafting trends which the author feels should be incorporated into teaching drafting: (1) true position and geometric tolerancing, (2) decimal and metric dimensioning, (3) functional drafting, (4) automated drafting, and (5) drawing reproductions. (BP)

  19. Future Trends in Business Travel Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Keith J.

    2002-01-01

    This research surveys twenty large companies and their travellers to identify and evaluate the effects of pressures on the business travel market in the future. The influence of the following areas on the decision making process are addressed: (1) Corporate travel policies and increasing professionalism in corporate purchasing; (2) The development of global strategic airline alliances; (3) The emergence of low cost airlines on short haul markets; and (4) The development of internet based booking tools and travel agency IT. The survey shows differences in views between travel managers, and travellers with regard to corporate travel policies. While travel managers see policy rules, travellers interpret these as guidelines, indicating travel managers will need to take further actions to exercise true control of travel budgets. The data shows that companies are more likely to prescribe a class of airline ticket, than the choice of airline itself. Corporate hierarchical bias in travel policies is still common both for short and particularly long haul flying. Other findings show that while travel managers believe that their companies are likely to sign global deals with strategic airline groups within a five year period in a bid to consolidating spending, they also believe that nearly a third of short haul flying will be taken with low cost carriers, indicating further penetration in this business travel market by these carriers. The paper also provides other predictions about the business travel market, based on the survey findings.

  20. Prevalence of HIV/AIDS and prediction of future trends in north-west region of India: A six-year ICTC-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyas Nitya

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The study was conducted to analyze previous six-year prevalence data of HIV infection in the Northwest region of India and predict future trends for a couple of years. Objectives: The study was conducted to aid SACS and NACO to plan and arrange resources for the future scenario. Materials and Methods: All the attendees of ICTC, Jaipur, from January 2002 to December 2007 were included and variables like age, sex, marital status, occupation, place of residence, pattern of risk behavior and HIV serostatus were studied. As per the strategy and policy prescribed by NACO, tests (E/R/S were performed on the serum samples. Data was collected; compiled and analyzed using standard statistical methods. Future trends of HIV-prevalence in north-west India were anticipated. Results: The overall positivity rates among attendees of ICTC, were found to be 12.2% (386/3161, 11.8% (519/4381, 11.1% (649/5867, 13% (908/6983, 14% (1385/9911 and 17.34% (1756/10133 in the years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively. Future trends for the next couple of years depict further increase in prevalence without any plateau. Conclusion: Epidemiological studies should be carried out in various settings to understand the role and complex relations of innumerable behavioral, social and demographic factors, which will help, interrupt and control the transmission of HIV/ AIDS.

  1. Japanese Encephalitis: Estimating Future Trends in Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Metelka

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Limited surveillance programs and lack of diagnostic laboratory testing capacity in many low and middle income Asian countries have made it difficult to validate epidemiological patterns and anticipate future changes in disease risk. In this study, we consider the case of Japanese Encephalitis in Asia and examine how populations of human hosts and animal reservoirs are expected to change over the next three decades. Growth was modelled at the sub-national level for rural and urban areas to estimate where high-density, susceptible populations will potentially overlap with populations of the virus' amplifying host. High-risk areas based on these projections were compared to the current distribution of Japanese Encephalitis, and known immunization activities in order to identify areas of highest priority for concern. Results indicated that mapping JE risk factors at the sub-national level is an effective way to contextualize and supplement JE surveillance data. New patterns of risk factor change occurring in Southeast Asia were identified, including around major urban areas experiencing both urbanization and growth in pig populations. A hotspot analysis of pig-to-population ratio found a significant spatial cluster extending northward through Southeast Asia and interior China. Mapping forecasted changes in risk factors for JE highlights regions vulnerable to emerging zoonoses and may be an important tool for developing effecting transnational health policies.

  2. Future trends in steam coal utilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broadbent, G.A. [IEA Coal Research, London (United Kingdom)

    2000-07-01

    After reviewing the history of coal production in important regions of the world and the evolution of the international steam coal trade, the paper examines the main drivers behind the future use of steam coal and looks at, from past evidence and current perception, how these may shape the future. The four main drivers are social issues, strategic issues, competitiveness issues, and environmental issues.

  3. Health education, recent and future trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Giordan

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available During the past, Health Education has been taking place in a variety of ways: prevention, monitoring and control of potentially epidemic diseases. New trends have been arising (such as 'health corners', interdisciplinary activities, exhibit, 'mini-university' for children, etc.. But it is important to discuss what 'Health Education' means, and define 'health' and rethink educational strategies. Several evaluations have highlighted the limited impact that communication activities, or one-off awareness campaigns, may have.

  4. Future Trends and US National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    dynamic but extraordinarily valuable. Multiple forces have significant influences over how the future unfolds. Political, social, economic...recently uncovered by Centro Na- cional de Inteligencia , Spain’s central intelligence service. Muslim ex- tremists are actively recruiting members from...per- ception. People have an imperfect ability to share attention between multiple cues. We are susceptible to distractions; our attention ACCOUNTING

  5. DIGITAL MARKETING: SUCCESS METRICS, FUTURE TRENDS

    OpenAIRE

    Preeti Kaushik

    2017-01-01

    Abstract – Business Marketing is one of the prospective which has been tremendously affected by digital world in last few years. Digital marketing refers to doing advertising through digital channels. This paper provides detailed study of metrics to measure success of digital marketing platform and glimpse of future of technologies by 2020.

  6. The Future of the Campus: Architecture and Master Planning Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulson, Jonathan; Roberts, Paul; Taylor, Isabelle

    2015-01-01

    The article discusses current and likely future trends within the architecture and master planning of university campuses. It argues that higher education administrators must maximise the value of the campus to create physical environments that enhance the student experience.

  7. The Future of the Campus: Architecture and Master Planning Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulson, Jonathan; Roberts, Paul; Taylor, Isabelle

    2015-01-01

    The article discusses current and likely future trends within the architecture and master planning of university campuses. It argues that higher education administrators must maximise the value of the campus to create physical environments that enhance the student experience.

  8. Positron Computed Tomography: Current State, Clinical Results and Future Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schelbert, H. R.; Phelps, M. E.; Kuhl, D. E.

    1980-09-01

    An overview is presented of positron computed tomography: its advantages over single photon emission tomography, its use in metabolic studies of the heart and chemical investigation of the brain, and future trends. (ACR)

  9. Future Trends of Software Technology and Applications: Software Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense © 2006 by Carnegie Mellon University 1 Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890 Future Trends of Software Technology ...COVERED 00-00-2006 to 00-00-2006 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Future Trends of Software Technology and Applications: Software Architecture 5a. CONTRACT...and Applications: Software Architecture Paul Clements Software Engineering Institute Carnegie Mellon University Report Documentation Page Form

  10. Future trends in computer waste generation in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwivedy, Maheshwar; Mittal, R K

    2010-11-01

    The objective of this paper is to estimate the future projection of computer waste in India and to subsequently analyze their flow at the end of their useful phase. For this purpose, the study utilizes the logistic model-based approach proposed by Yang and Williams to forecast future trends in computer waste. The model estimates future projection of computer penetration rate utilizing their first lifespan distribution and historical sales data. A bounding analysis on the future carrying capacity was simulated using the three parameter logistic curve. The observed obsolete generation quantities from the extrapolated penetration rates are then used to model the disposal phase. The results of the bounding analysis indicate that in the year 2020, around 41-152 million units of computers will become obsolete. The obsolete computer generation quantities are then used to estimate the End-of-Life outflows by utilizing a time-series multiple lifespan model. Even a conservative estimate of the future recycling capacity of PCs will reach upwards of 30 million units during 2025. Apparently, more than 150 million units could be potentially recycled in the upper bound case. However, considering significant future investment in the e-waste recycling sector from all stakeholders in India, we propose a logistic growth in the recycling rate and estimate the requirement of recycling capacity between 60 and 400 million units for the lower and upper bound case during 2025. Finally, we compare the future obsolete PC generation amount of the US and India. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Sensing technology current status and future trends

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Subhas; Jayasundera, Krishanthi; Bhattacharyya, Nabarun

    2014-01-01

    This book is written for academic and industry professionals working in the field of sensing, instrumentation and related fields, and is positioned to give a snapshot of the current state of the art in sensing technology, particularly from the applied perspective.  The book is intended to give a broad overview of the latest developments, in addition to discussing the process through which researchers go through in order to develop sensors, or related systems, which will become more widespread in the future.  

  12. Future trends of 3D silicon sensors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Da Vià, Cinzia, E-mail: cinzia.da.via@cern.ch [School of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9PL Manchester (United Kingdom); Boscardin, Maurizio [Fondazione Bruno Kessler, FBK-CMM, Via Sommarive 18, I-38123 Trento (Italy); Dalla Betta, Gian-Franco [DISI, Università degli Studi di Trento and INFN, Via Sommarive 14, I-38123 Trento (Italy); Haughton, Iain [School of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9PL Manchester (United Kingdom); Grenier, Philippe [SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, 2575 Sand Hill Rd, Menlo Park, CA 94025 (United States); Grinstein, Sebastian [Institut de Fisica d' Altes Energies (IFAE) and ICREA, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB) E-08193, Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Hansen, Thor-Erik [SINTEF MiNaLab, Blindern, N-0314 Oslo (Norway); Hasi, Jasmine; Kenney, Christopher [SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, 2575 Sand Hill Rd, Menlo Park, CA 94025 (United States); Kok, Angela [SINTEF MiNaLab, Blindern, N-0314 Oslo (Norway); Parker, Sherwood [University of Hawaii, c/o Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley CA 94720 (United States); Pellegrini, Giulio [Centro Nacional de Microelectronica, CNM-IMB (CSIC), Barcelona E-08193 (Spain); Povoli, Marco [DISI, Università degli Studi di Trento and INFN, Via Sommarive 14, I-38123 Trento (Italy); Tzhnevyi, Vladislav; Watts, Stephen J. [School of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9PL Manchester (United Kingdom)

    2013-12-11

    Vertex detectors for the next LHC experiments upgrades will need to have low mass while at the same time be radiation hard and with sufficient granularity to fulfil the physics challenges of the next decade. Based on the gained experience with 3D silicon sensors for the ATLAS IBL project and the on-going developments on light materials, interconnectivity and cooling, this paper will discuss possible solutions to these requirements.

  13. Mastitis detection: current trends and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viguier, Caroline; Arora, Sushrut; Gilmartin, Niamh; Welbeck, Katherine; O'Kennedy, Richard

    2009-08-01

    Bovine mastitis, the most significant disease of dairy herds, has huge effects on farm economics due to reduction in milk production and treatment costs. Traditionally, methods of detection have included estimation of somatic cell counts, an indication of inflammation, measurement of biomarkers associated with the onset of the disease (e.g. the enzymes N-acetyl-beta-D-glucosaminidase and lactate dehydrogenase) and identification of the causative microorganisms, which often involves culturing methods. These methods have their limitations and there is a need for new rapid, sensitive and reliable assays. Recently, significant advances in the identification of nucleic acid markers and other novel biomarkers and the development of sensor-based platforms have taken place. These novel strategies have shown promise, and their advantages over the conventional tests are discussed.

  14. The Informal Economy: Recent Trends, Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Martha Alter

    2016-08-01

    Informal employment represents more than half of nonagricultural employment in most developing regions, contributes to the overall economy, and provides pathways to reduction of poverty and inequality. Support to the informal economy should include the expansion of occupational health and safety to include informal workers, based on an analysis of their work places and work risks. The paper presents main schools of thought and argues for a holistic understanding of the different segments of the informal work force and for policies and interventions tailored to the needs and constraints of these different segments. The paper recommends a policy approach which seeks to extend social protection, including occupational health and safety services, to informal workers, and to increase the productivity of informal enterprises and informal workers through an enabling environment and support services. The paper calls for a new paradigm of a hybrid economy which would value and integrate the informal economy alongside the formal economies.

  15. Bioprinting toward organ fabrication: challenges and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozbolat, Ibrahim T; Yu, Yin

    2013-03-01

    Tissue engineering has been a promising field of research, offering hope for bridging the gap between organ shortage and transplantation needs. However, building three-dimensional (3-D) vascularized organs remains the main technological barrier to be overcome. Organ printing, which is defined as computer-aided additive biofabrication of 3-D cellular tissue constructs, has shed light on advancing this field into a new era. Organ printing takes advantage of rapid prototyping (RP) technology to print cells, biomaterials, and cell-laden biomaterials individually or in tandem, layer by layer, directly creating 3-D tissue-like structures. Here, we overview RP-based bioprinting approaches and discuss the current challenges and trends toward fabricating living organs for transplant in the near future.

  16. Microplastics in the marine environment: Current trends and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barboza, Luís Gabriel Antão; Gimenez, Barbara Carolina Garcia

    2015-08-15

    Over the last decade, the presence of microplastics on marine environments has become an important environmental concern and focus of interest of many researches. Thus, to provide a more integrated view of the research trends regarding this topic, we use a scientometric approach to systematically assess and quantify advances in knowledge related to microplastics in the marine environment. The papers that we used for our assessment were obtained from the database Thomson Reuters (ISI Web of Science), between 2004 and 2014. Our results reveal the overall research performance in the study area of microplastics present in the marine environment over the past decade as a newly developed research field. It has been recognized that there are several important issues that should be investigated. Toward that end, based on the suggested directions on all papers reviewed, we point out areas/topics of interest that may guide future work in the coming years.

  17. State Education Spending: Current Pressures and Future Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Sheila E. Murray; Rueben, Kim; Rosenberg, Carol

    2007-01-01

    Education expenditures are one of the largest spending areas for state and local governments, and per–pupil expenditures have been growing over time. We examine trends in state aid for education and overall education spending and decompose the existing drivers behind growing state costs. We then explore how predicted future demographic trends will affect education spending levels, as the percent of the population that is of school age falls. We conclude that there will continue to be a large ...

  18. The Decline in Stroke Mortality Exploration of Future Trends in 7 Western European Countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kunst, Anton E.; Amiri, Masoud; Janssen, Fanny

    2011-01-01

    Background and Purpose-This article aims to make projections of future trends in stroke mortality in the Year 2030 based on recent trends in stroke mortality in 7 Western European countries. Methods-Mortality data were obtained from national cause of death registries. Annual rates of decline in stro

  19. Review of Current Studies in Instructional Design Theory in Korea: Major Trends and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Cheolil; Yeon, Eunkyoung

    2009-01-01

    This article reviewed recent studies of instructional design theory in Korea to explore major trends and suggest future directions. Based on the analysis of 40 articles from the "Journal of Educational Technology" between 1994 and 2006, this study identified six trends: little emphasis on the conceptualization of instructional design…

  20. Training in Spanish organizations: Trends and future perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Jose Rubio Hurtado

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study aims to identify training trends in Spanish organizations.Design/methodology/approach: A survey methodology is conducted and the questionnaire is the strategy to collect information. In order to construct the sample, a previous selection of enterprises was done out of the 50 000 enterprises registered at DICODI (Data base of main Spanish societies 2004/2005. The sampling was done by quotas. The quotas or categories selected were: the enterprises’ activity sector, gender and job position. Findings: The research describes the actual state of training trends and the changes that seem to glimpse out of the considered dimensions: training planning, goals, recipients, modalities, resources, evaluation, training professionals and outsourcing.Research limitations: The study was carried out through a not randomized sample, so the results cannot be generalized.Practical implications: Organizations can make future proposals from the facts exposed in our research. Originality/value: Is the first time in our context that a research of this type is performed, showing significant matches in the results with other studies of international reference.

  1. The Future of School Social Work Practice: Current Trends and Opportunities

    OpenAIRE

    2005-01-01

    This article discusses the information on school social work practice in the United States and summarizes recent trends and their implications for the future of school social work. The number of school social workers and current infrastructure available for the development of school social work practice is reviewed. Five sociocultural trends are summarized that are affecting public schools as well as important school-based practice trends such as standardized testing, and high stakes accounta...

  2. Counseling in Malaysia: History, Current Status, and Future Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    See, Ching Mey; Ng, Kok-Mun

    2010-01-01

    This article presents an overview of the history of counseling in Malaysia, provides an update of its current status, and discusses some anticipated future trends for the profession in light of recent developments in the country. Counseling in Malaysia began with school guidance in the 1960s and has now achieved recognition as a profession in…

  3. These 21 Trends Will Shape the Future of School Design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brubaker, C. William

    1988-01-01

    Describes 21 design trends that will shape the future look of schools. Eventually a new kind of school architecture incorporating both high-tech and postmodern components will evolve. A sidebar cites 10 reasons why direct cost comparison for school construction can rarely be justified. (MLF)

  4. Digital Skills Acquisition: Future Trends among Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilliam, Brian K.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify future trends and barriers that will either facilitate or impede the narrowing of the digital skills divide among older adults during the next 10 years. Methodology: To address the research questions, this study used a modified version of the Delphi process using a panel of experts who…

  5. [Recent and future trends in general fertility in Venezuela].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papail, J

    1983-01-01

    Data from the 1977 Venezuela Fertility survey were used to assess recent trends in fertility and to attempt an understanding of future fertility based on observed trends. Between 1951-61, the total fertility rate increased from 5.96 to 6.61. In the 1960s, the fertility of women aged 15-30 years declined somewhat and the use of contraception and sterilization became more widespread, so that by 1971 the total fertility rate fell to 5.58. It is possible that the 1977 fertility survey slightly underrepresented women in the Caracas area, which would tend to overestimate fertility at the national level. The small sample size of 4361 women aged 15-44 involved considerable fluctuations in fertility rates from year to year. The risk of errors resulting from the method of retrospective reporting of live births appeared to be small since the recall period was relatively short. A series of quinquennial rates for women aged 15-39 was constructed for each age group from 1968-77. Fertility rates estimated for 1971 and 1976 respectively from the Venezuela Fertility Survey results using a moving average for 3 years were 120.7 and 105.1 for women 15-19, 259.0 and 225.1 for women 20-24, 255.0 and 213.1 for women 25-29, 214.3 and 167.7 for women 30-34, and 150.0 and 103.6 for women 35-39. The results were quite close to fertility rates estimated in other sources. The 1977 fertility survey indicated a trend toward later age at marriage and a correlation of ideal family size with age. The ideal number of children was 4.2 for the total sample, 5 children for women aged 35-39 years, 4.5 for those aged 30-34, 3.9 for those 25-29, and 3.5 for those aged 20-24. 55% of women in union stated they wanted no more children. 46% of women exposed to risk of pregnancy used a modern method of contraception; the proportion varied from 40% of those with 1 child to 56% with 4 children. The fertility decline, reduced ideal family size, and use of modern contraception were closely associated with

  6. The Future of School Social Work Practice: Current Trends and Opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cynthia Franklin

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the information on school social work practice in the United States and summarizes recent trends and their implications for the future of school social work. The number of school social workers and current infrastructure available for the development of school social work practice is reviewed. Five sociocultural trends are summarized that are affecting public schools as well as important school-based practice trends such as standardized testing, and high stakes accountability measures. The emerging practice trend of evidence-based practices is discussed in light of its standards and implications for school-based practice. Finally, essential knowledge for strengthening practice competencies to meet the future challenges of school-based practice is highlight.

  7. Fractal Formation and Trend Trading Strategy in Futures Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masteika, Saulius; Rutkauskas, Aleksandras V.; Lopata, Audrius

    The paper presents the details of trend trading algorithm in futures market. A contribution of this paper lies in a modified chart pattern related to a fractal formation, nonlinearity and chaos theory, broadly discussed by Benoit B. Mandelbrot and Bill M. Williams. As typical fractal pattern often is being applied in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis, like moving averages, Elliott Waves analysis or MACD indicators the proposed pattern is presented as a basic indicator itself. The strategy can be applied as up-trend market forecasting tool. The efficiency of the proposed strategy was tested with the most active North American futures contracts using 10 years historical daily data. Experimental results showed better returns if compared to overall market average-CRB index.

  8. Present and Future Trends in Military Satellite Communication Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.K. Chatterjee

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent years have seen a phenomenal growth in the field of satellite communications. Satcom systems offer many advantages for military applications which include wide area coverage, rapid deployment, flexible networking and long range service to moving platforms like ships, aircraft and vehicles. This paper gives an overview of the special features and future trends in military satcom systems. A brief account of various countermeasures against threats, use of EHF, spread-spectrum techniques and on board processing has also been given. Major technological advances are anticipated in near future to realise high capacity, secure and survivable satcom systems for Defence applications.

  9. Marine Structures: Future Trends and the Role of Universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preben Terndrup Pedersen

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper emphasizes some of the challenges and trends associated with the future development of marine structures. Its main focus is on ways to improve the efficiency of energy-consuming ships, and on design challenges related to energy-producing offshore structures. This paper also discusses the analysis tools that are most needed to enable sustainable designs for future ships and offshore structures. The last section of the paper contains thoughts on the role of universities in education, research, and innovation regarding marine structures. It discusses curriculum requirements for maritime-technology education, basic research activities, and international cooperation.

  10. Mobile Ad Hoc Networks Current Status and Future Trends

    CERN Document Server

    Loo, Jonathan

    2011-01-01

    Guiding readers through the basics of these rapidly emerging networks to more advanced concepts and future expectations, Mobile Ad hoc Networks: Current Status and Future Trends identifies and examines the most pressing research issues in Mobile Ad hoc Networks (MANETs). Containing the contributions of leading researchers, industry professionals, and academics, this forward-looking reference provides an authoritative perspective of the state of the art in MANETs. The book includes surveys of recent publications that investigate key areas of interest such as limited resources and the mobility o

  11. Marine Structures: Future Trends and the Role of Universities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    2015-01-01

    This paper emphasizes some of the challenges and trends associated with the future development of marine structures. Its main focus is onways to improve the efficiency of energy-consuming ships, and on design challenges related to energy-producing offshore structures. This paper also discusses...... the analysis tools that are most needed to enable sustainable designs for future ships and offshore structures.The last section of the paper contains thoughts on the role of universities in education, research, and innovation regarding marine structures. It discusses curriculum requirements for maritime...

  12. Large Antenna Control Methods: Current Status and Future Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, G.; Lin, Y. H.; Milman, M. H.

    1985-01-01

    Current methods for control of large antennas, as well as future trends required for improved performance are addressed. Some of the target missions in which these methods would be used are: the Land Mobile Satellite System (LMSS) for communications; the Satellite Surveillance (SSS) for aircraft traffic control; the orbiting Very Long Baseline Interferometer (VLBI), or QUASAT, for radio astronomy; and the Large Deployable Reflector (LDR) for IR and submillimeter astronomy.

  13. Reconciling Past and Future Rainfall Trends over East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowell, Dave; Booth, Ben; Nicholson, Sharon; Good, Peter

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that rainfall during the East African Long Rains season has declined over recent decades, whereas the majority of climate models predict an increase due to anthropogenic carbon emissions. This raises questions about either the reliability of the model projections, or when we might expect this drought to turn to more abundant rainfall and perhaps more frequent flooding. We first list all hypotheses that may conceivably explain this paradox, our aim being to include all possibilities regardless of preconceptions as to their likelihood: • A: The recent observed trend is due to poor quality data. • B: The projected trend arises from poor modelling of key processes. • C: Trends are due to natural variability. • D: The balance between competing forcings is changing, with the past trend driven by aerosol emissions and the future trend driven by carbon emissions. • E: The past trend has been driven by land-use changes. • F: The mechanistic response to CO2 emissions is non-linear. • Some combination of the above. Regarding A, there is good observational evidence for a recent downward trend in rainfall. Regarding B, careful and substantial further research is essential to confidently refute or accept this idea. The possibility that the observed trend is due to natural variability (C) is assessed using two approaches. Both suggest that the recent Long Rains droughts are either due to a very unusual natural event of the climate system, or (more likely) are at least partly due to anthropogenic forcing. Hypothesis D, that the recent observed rainfall trend may be due to anthropogenic aerosol emissions, eg. from Asia, is investigated using CMIP5 sensitivity experiments. These reveal a sometimes significant, but highly model-dependent, impact on SST trends over the Indian and Pacific Oceans, which are thought to have caused the recent Long Rains droughts. Other CMIP5 experiments suggest that land-use changes are unlikely to have caused the recent

  14. Current and future trends in marine image annotation software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes-Pereira, Jose Nuno; Auger, Vincent; Beisiegel, Kolja; Benjamin, Robert; Bergmann, Melanie; Bowden, David; Buhl-Mortensen, Pal; De Leo, Fabio C.; Dionísio, Gisela; Durden, Jennifer M.; Edwards, Luke; Friedman, Ariell; Greinert, Jens; Jacobsen-Stout, Nancy; Lerner, Steve; Leslie, Murray; Nattkemper, Tim W.; Sameoto, Jessica A.; Schoening, Timm; Schouten, Ronald; Seager, James; Singh, Hanumant; Soubigou, Olivier; Tojeira, Inês; van den Beld, Inge; Dias, Frederico; Tempera, Fernando; Santos, Ricardo S.

    2016-12-01

    . Integration into available MIAS is currently limited to semi-automated processes of pixel recognition through computer-vision modules that compile expert-based knowledge. Important topics aiding the choice of a specific software are outlined, the ideal software is discussed and future trends are presented.

  15. The contribution of ozone to future stratospheric temperature trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maycock, Amanda

    2017-04-01

    The projected recovery of ozone from the effects of ozone depleting substances this century will modulate the stratospheric cooling due to CO2, thereby affecting the detection and attribution of stratospheric temperature trends. Here the impact of future ozone changes on stratospheric temperatures is quantified for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using simulations from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For models with interactive chemistry, ozone trends offset 50% of the global annual mean upper stratospheric cooling due to CO2 for RCP4.5 and 20% for RCP8.5 between 2006-2015 and 2090-2099. For RCP2.6, ozone trends cause a net warming of the upper and lower stratosphere. The misspecification of ozone trends for RCP2.6/RCP4.5 in models that used the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC)/Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Ozone Database causes anomalous warming (cooling) of the upper (lower) stratosphere compared to chemistry-climate models. The dependence of ozone chemistry on greenhouse gas concentrations should therefore be better represented in CMIP6.

  16. Biosolids disposal: An international overview of current and future trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, B

    1993-03-01

    The current trend in wastewater treatment is toward optimization, reuse, and beneficial use of biosolids. Key considerations in the selection of a sludge management process include long-term viability, sludge quality, markets for sludge-derived products, storage requirements, and whether the project will be able to obtain approvals. Beneficial uses of biosolids include agriculture and landscaping, construction materials, and energy; emerging technologies for utilizing sludges include biobrick production, animal feed production, vermiculture, pyrolysis of sludge to produce oil, manufacturing cement using sludge, and sludge liming for use in agriculture. An important use of sludge in Canada will be the use of solids as fertilizer in cleared-out areas of forest. A review is presented of practices in sludge disposal and utilization in Canada, the USA, Europe, and Japan. Some future trends are also noted. 4 tabs.

  17. Theme: Trends and Issues Affecting the Future of Agricultural Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agricultural Education Magazine, 2000

    2000-01-01

    Articles discuss trends and issues in agricultural education, community and technical colleges, career/technical studies, Australian agriculture, agricultural science and technology programs in urban areas, genetic engineering, the impact of changing technologies on agricultural education, volunteers, and performance-based assessment. (JOW)

  18. Food and Health Some Current Issues and Future Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Gormley, T. R. (Thomas Ronan)

    1991-01-01

    This paper deals with some of the many current issues and future trends in the area of food, diet and health in Europe. A complete coverage would be impossible in a short article in view of the extent and complexity of the food system and its major interaction with health. It is also important to stress at the outset that food/diet is only one component of health and other factors such as environment, overall lifestyle and genetics also play a major role. The genetic dimension is of particula...

  19. Adiabatic logic future trend and system level perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Teichmann, Philip

    2012-01-01

    Adiabatic logic is a potential successor for static CMOS circuit design when it comes to ultra-low-power energy consumption. Future development like the evolutionary shrinking of the minimum feature size as well as revolutionary novel transistor concepts will change the gate level savings gained by adiabatic logic. In addition, the impact of worsening degradation effects has to be considered in the design of adiabatic circuits. The impact of the technology trends on the figures of merit of adiabatic logic, energy saving potential and optimum operating frequency, are investigated, as well as degradation related issues. Adiabatic logic benefits from future devices, is not susceptible to Hot Carrier Injection, and shows less impact of Bias Temperature Instability than static CMOS circuits. Major interest also lies on the efficient generation of the applied power-clock signal. This oscillating power supply can be used to save energy in short idle times by disconnecting circuits. An efficient way to generate the p...

  20. Recent developments and future trends of industrial agents

    OpenAIRE

    Leitão, Paulo; Vrba, Pavel

    2011-01-01

    The agent technology provides a new way to design and engineer control solutions based on the decentralization of control over distributed structures, addressing the current requirements for modern control systems in industrial domains. This paper presents the current situation of the development and deployment of agent technology, discussing the initiatives and the current trends faced for a wider dissemination and industrial adoption, based on the work that is being carried out by the IEEE ...

  1. The Future of e-Learning in Medical Education: Current Trend and Future Opportunity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Kim

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available A wide range of e-learning modalities are widely integrated in medical education. However, some of the key questions related to the role of e-learning remain unanswered, such as (1 what is an effective approach to integrating technology into pre-clinical vs. clinical training?; (2 what evidence exists regarding the type and format of e-learning technology suitable for medical specialties and clinical settings?; (3 which design features are known to be effective in designing on-line patient simulation cases, tutorials, or clinical exams?; and (4 what guidelines exist for determining an appropriate blend of instructional strategies, including online learning, face-to-face instruction, and performance-based skill practices? Based on the existing literature and a variety of e-learning examples of synchronous learning tools and simulation technology, this paper addresses the following three questions: (1 what is the current trend of e-learning in medical education?; (2 what do we know about the effective use of e-learning?; and (3 what is the role of e-learning in facilitating newly emerging competency-based training? As e-learning continues to be widely integrated in training future physicians, it is critical that our efforts in conducting evaluative studies should target specific e-learning features that can best mediate intended learning goals and objectives. Without an evolving knowledge base on how best to design e-learning applications, the gap between what we know about technology use and how we deploy e-learning in training settings will continue to widen.

  2. Past, current, and future trends of red spiny lobster based on PCA with MaxEnt model in Galapagos Islands, Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moya, Wladimir; Jacome, Gabriel; Yoo, ChangKyoo

    2017-07-01

    In order to enhance in terms of accuracy and predict the modeling of the potential distribution of species, the integration of using principal components of environmental variables as input of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) has been proposed in this study. Principal components selected previously from the principal component analysis results performed in ArcGIS in the environmental variables was used as an input data of MaxEnt instead of raw data to model the potential distribution of red spiny lobster from the year 1997 to 2015 and for three different future scenarios 2020, 2050, and 2070. One set of six original environmental variables pertaining to the years 1997-2015 and one set of four variables for future scenarios were transformed independently into a single multiband raster in ArcGIS in order to select the variables whose eigenvalues explains more than 5% of the total variance with the purpose to use in the modeling prediction in MaxEnt. The years 1997 and 1998 were chosen to compare the accuracy of the model, showing better results using principal components instead of raw data in terms of area under the curve and partial receiver operating characteristic as well as better predictions of suitable areas. Using principal components as input of MaxEnt enhances the prediction of good habitat suitability for red spiny lobster; however, future scenarios suggest an adequate management by researches to elaborate appropriate guidelines for the conservation of the habitat for this valuable specie with face to the climate change.

  3. Trends and future challenges in sampling the deep terrestrial biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkins, Michael J; Daly, Rebecca A; Mouser, Paula J; Trexler, Ryan; Sharma, Shihka; Cole, David R; Wrighton, Kelly C; Biddle, Jennifer F; Denis, Elizabeth H; Fredrickson, Jim K; Kieft, Thomas L; Onstott, Tullis C; Peterson, Lee; Pfiffner, Susan M; Phelps, Tommy J; Schrenk, Matthew O

    2014-01-01

    Research in the deep terrestrial biosphere is driven by interest in novel biodiversity and metabolisms, biogeochemical cycling, and the impact of human activities on this ecosystem. As this interest continues to grow, it is important to ensure that when subsurface investigations are proposed, materials recovered from the subsurface are sampled and preserved in an appropriate manner to limit contamination and ensure preservation of accurate microbial, geochemical, and mineralogical signatures. On February 20th, 2014, a workshop on "Trends and Future Challenges in Sampling The Deep Subsurface" was coordinated in Columbus, Ohio by The Ohio State University and West Virginia University faculty, and sponsored by The Ohio State University and the Sloan Foundation's Deep Carbon Observatory. The workshop aims were to identify and develop best practices for the collection, preservation, and analysis of terrestrial deep rock samples. This document summarizes the information shared during this workshop.

  4. Guanxi Networks in China: Its Importance and Future Trends

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jin Ai

    2006-01-01

    China's market potential is unparalleled, although many foreign business practitioners have commented that operating profitably in China is difficult, and more complex and time consuming than should be necessary. Given these facts, a lot of research on doing business in China gives recognition to the concept of Guanxi, a social and business relationship network, as the key to conducting successful business. By analyzing current research and collecting primary data from both the Chinese Mainland and Taiwan Province, this study aims to clarify the importance of Guanxi, and to study the future trend of Guanxi. By doing so, this paper intends to help business practitioners in China, especially those from the Western countries, to gain a deeper and more practical insight into the Chinese social network, and to help them make effective cross-cultural adaptation and business decisions in the unfamiliar cultural environment of China.

  5. Trends and Future Challenges in Sampling the Deep Terrestrial Biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilkins, Michael J.; Daly, Rebecca; Mouser, Paula J.; Trexler, Ryan; Sharma, Shihka; Cole, David R.; Wrighton, Kelly C.; Biddle , Jennifer F.; Denis, Elizabeth; Fredrickson, Jim K.; Kieft, Thomas L.; Onstott, T. C.; Peterson, Lee; Pfiffner, Susan M.; Phelps, Tommy J.; Schrenk, Matthew O.

    2014-09-12

    Research in the deep terrestrial biosphere is driven by interest in novel biodiversity and metabolisms, biogeochemical cycling, and the impact of human activities on this ecosystem. As this interest continues to grow, it is important to ensure that when subsurface investigations are proposed, materials recovered from the subsurface are sampled and preserved in an appropriate manner to limit contamination and ensure preservation of accurate microbial, geochemical, and mineralogical signatures. On February 20th, 2014, a workshop on “Trends and Future Challenges in Sampling The Deep Subsurface” was coordinated in Columbus, Ohio by The Ohio State University and West Virginia University faculty, and sponsored by The Ohio State University and the Sloan Foundation’s Deep Carbon Observatory. The workshop aims were to identify and develop best practices for the collection, preservation, and analysis of terrestrial deep rock samples. This document summarizes the information shared during this workshop.

  6. Trends in AFIS technology: past, present, and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardwell, Guy; Bavarian, Behnam

    1997-01-01

    Automated Fingerprint Identification has a history of more than 20 years. In the last 5 years, there has been an explosion of technologies that have dramatically changed the face of AFIS. Few other engineering and science fields offer such a widespread use of technology as does computerized fingerprint recognition. Optics, computer vision, computer graphics, artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, parallel processing, distributed client server applications, fault tolerant computing, scaleable architectures, local and wide area networking, mass storage, databases, are a few of the fields that have made quantum leaps in recent years. All of these improvements have a dramatic effect on the size, speed, and accuracy of automated fingerprint identification systems. ThIs paper offers a historical overview of these trends and discuss the state of the art. It culminates with an overview an educated forecast on future systems, especially those 'real time' systems for use in area of law enforcement and civil/commercial applications.

  7. Current and future trends in imaging informatics for oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Mia A; Rubin, Daniel L

    2011-01-01

    Clinical imaging plays an essential role in cancer care and research for diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment response assessment. Major advances in imaging informatics to support medical imaging have been made during the last several decades. More recent informatics advances focus on the special needs of oncologic imaging, yet gaps still remain. We review the current state, limitations, and future trends in imaging informatics for oncology care including clinical and clinical research systems. We review information systems to support cancer clinical workflows including oncologist ordering of radiology studies, radiologist review and reporting of image findings, and oncologist review and integration of imaging information for clinical decision making. We discuss informatics approaches to oncologic imaging including, but not limited to, controlled terminologies, image annotation, and image-processing algorithms. With the ongoing development of novel imaging modalities and imaging biomarkers, we expect these systems will continue to evolve and mature.

  8. Recent trends and future of pharmaceutical packaging technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nityanand Zadbuke

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The pharmaceutical packaging market is constantly advancing and has experienced annual growth of at least five percent per annum in the past few years. The market is now reckoned to be worth over $20 billion a year. As with most other packaged goods, pharmaceuticals need reliable and speedy packaging solutions that deliver a combination of product protection, quality, tamper evidence, patient comfort and security needs. Constant innovations in the pharmaceuticals themselves such as, blow fill seal (BFS vials, anti-counterfeit measures, plasma impulse chemical vapor deposition (PICVD coating technology, snap off ampoules, unit dose vials, two-in-one prefilled vial design, prefilled syringes and child-resistant packs have a direct impact on the packaging. The review details several of the recent pharmaceutical packaging trends that are impacting packaging industry, and offers some predictions for the future.

  9. Trends and Future Challenges in Sampling the Deep Terrestrial Biosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Wilkins

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Research in the deep terrestrial biosphere is driven by interest in novel biodiversity and metabolisms, biogeochemical cycling, and the impact of human activities on this ecosystem. As this interest continues to grow, it is important to ensure that when subsurface investigations are proposed, materials recovered from the subsurface are sampled and preserved in an appropriate manner to limit contamination and ensure preservation of accurate microbial, geochemical, and mineralogical signatures. On February 20th, 2014, a workshop on Trends and Future Challenges in Sampling The Deep Subsurface was coordinated in Columbus, Ohio by The Ohio State University and West Virginia University faculty, and sponsored by The Ohio State University and the Sloan Foundation’s Deep Carbon Observatory. The workshop aims were to identify and develop best practices for the collection, preservation, and analysis of terrestrial deep rock samples. This document summarizes the information shared during this workshop.

  10. Nanotechnology-enhanced orthopedic materials fabrications, applications and future trends

    CERN Document Server

    Yang, Lei

    2015-01-01

    Nanotechnology-Enhanced Orthopedic Materials provides the latest information on the emergence and rapid development of nanotechnology and the ways it has impacted almost every aspect of biomedical engineering. This book provides readers with a comprehensive overview of the field, focusing on the fabrication and applications of these materials, presenting updated, practical, and systematic knowledge on the synthesis, processing, and modification of nanomaterials, along with the rationale and methodology of applying such materials for orthopedic purposes. Topics covered include a wide range of orthopedic material formulations, such as ceramics, metals, polymers, biomolecules, and self-assemblies. Final sections explore applications and future trends in nanotechnology-enhanced orthopedic materials. Details practical information on the fabrication and modification of new and traditional orthopedic materials Analyzes a wide range of materials, designs, and applications of nanotechnology for orthopedics Investigate...

  11. Recent trends and future of pharmaceutical packaging technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zadbuke, Nityanand; Shahi, Sadhana; Gulecha, Bhushan; Padalkar, Abhay; Thube, Mahesh

    2013-01-01

    The pharmaceutical packaging market is constantly advancing and has experienced annual growth of at least five percent per annum in the past few years. The market is now reckoned to be worth over $20 billion a year. As with most other packaged goods, pharmaceuticals need reliable and speedy packaging solutions that deliver a combination of product protection, quality, tamper evidence, patient comfort and security needs. Constant innovations in the pharmaceuticals themselves such as, blow fill seal (BFS) vials, anti-counterfeit measures, plasma impulse chemical vapor deposition (PICVD) coating technology, snap off ampoules, unit dose vials, two-in-one prefilled vial design, prefilled syringes and child-resistant packs have a direct impact on the packaging. The review details several of the recent pharmaceutical packaging trends that are impacting packaging industry, and offers some predictions for the future. PMID:23833515

  12. Recent trends and future of pharmaceutical packaging technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zadbuke, Nityanand; Shahi, Sadhana; Gulecha, Bhushan; Padalkar, Abhay; Thube, Mahesh

    2013-04-01

    The pharmaceutical packaging market is constantly advancing and has experienced annual growth of at least five percent per annum in the past few years. The market is now reckoned to be worth over $20 billion a year. As with most other packaged goods, pharmaceuticals need reliable and speedy packaging solutions that deliver a combination of product protection, quality, tamper evidence, patient comfort and security needs. Constant innovations in the pharmaceuticals themselves such as, blow fill seal (BFS) vials, anti-counterfeit measures, plasma impulse chemical vapor deposition (PICVD) coating technology, snap off ampoules, unit dose vials, two-in-one prefilled vial design, prefilled syringes and child-resistant packs have a direct impact on the packaging. The review details several of the recent pharmaceutical packaging trends that are impacting packaging industry, and offers some predictions for the future.

  13. Diabetes 2030: Insights from Yesterday, Today, and Future Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowley, William R; Bezold, Clement; Arikan, Yasemin; Byrne, Erin; Krohe, Shannon

    2017-02-01

    To forecast future trends in diabetes prevalence, morbidity, and costs in the United States, the Institute for Alternative Futures has updated its diabetes forecasting model and extended its projections to 2030 for the nation, all states, and several metropolitan areas. This paper describes the methodology and data sources for these diabetes forecasts and discusses key implications. In short, diabetes will remain a major health crisis in America, in spite of medical advances and prevention efforts. The prevalence of diabetes (type 2 diabetes and type 1 diabetes) will increase by 54% to more than 54.9 million Americans between 2015 and 2030; annual deaths attributed to diabetes will climb by 38% to 385,800; and total annual medical and societal costs related to diabetes will increase 53% to more than $622 billion by 2030. Improvements in management reducing the annual incidence of morbidities and premature deaths related to diabetes over this time period will result in diabetes patients living longer, but requiring many years of comprehensive management of multiple chronic diseases, resulting in dramatically increased costs. Aggressive population health measures, including increased availability of diabetes prevention programs, could help millions of adults prevent or delay the progression to type 2 diabetes, thereby helping turn around these dire projections.

  14. Diabetes 2030: Insights from Yesterday, Today, and Future Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bezold, Clement; Arikan, Yasemin; Byrne, Erin; Krohe, Shannon

    2017-01-01

    Abstract To forecast future trends in diabetes prevalence, morbidity, and costs in the United States, the Institute for Alternative Futures has updated its diabetes forecasting model and extended its projections to 2030 for the nation, all states, and several metropolitan areas. This paper describes the methodology and data sources for these diabetes forecasts and discusses key implications. In short, diabetes will remain a major health crisis in America, in spite of medical advances and prevention efforts. The prevalence of diabetes (type 2 diabetes and type 1 diabetes) will increase by 54% to more than 54.9 million Americans between 2015 and 2030; annual deaths attributed to diabetes will climb by 38% to 385,800; and total annual medical and societal costs related to diabetes will increase 53% to more than $622 billion by 2030. Improvements in management reducing the annual incidence of morbidities and premature deaths related to diabetes over this time period will result in diabetes patients living longer, but requiring many years of comprehensive management of multiple chronic diseases, resulting in dramatically increased costs. Aggressive population health measures, including increased availability of diabetes prevention programs, could help millions of adults prevent or delay the progression to type 2 diabetes, thereby helping turn around these dire projections. PMID:27124621

  15. The Intersection of Afterschool and Competency-Based Learning: Emerging Trends, Policy Considerations, and Questions for the Future. AYPF White Paper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Jennifer Brown; Tomasello, Jenna; Brand, Betsy; Knowles, George

    2016-01-01

    Afterschool and competency-based learning are increasingly emerging as student-centered, supportive learning models to prepare students for college and career. This white paper explores the intersection and relationship between these two fields, recommends ideal policy environments for implementing successful programs, provides real-world…

  16. Macro Trends and the Future of Public Health Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erwin, Paul Campbell; Brownson, Ross C

    2016-12-15

    Public health practice in the twenty-first century is in a state of significant flux. Several macro trends are impacting the current practice of governmental public health and will likely have effects for many years to come. These macro trends are described as forces of change, which are changes that affect the context in which the community and its public health system operate. This article focuses on seven such forces of change: the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, public health agency accreditation, climate change, health in all policies, social media and informatics, demographic transitions, and globalized travel. Following the description of each of these, this article then turns to possible approaches to measuring, tracking, and understanding the impact of these forces of change on public health practice, including the use of evidence-based public health, practice-based research, and policy surveillance. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Public Health Volume 38 is March 20, 2017. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

  17. Integrated Approach of Agri-nanotechnology: Challenges and Future Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Sandhya; Keswani, Chetan; Abhilash, P. C.; Fraceto, Leonardo F.; Singh, Harikesh Bahadur

    2017-01-01

    Nanotechnology representing a new frontier in modern agriculture is anticipated to become a major thrust in near future by offering potential applications. This integrating approach, i.e., agri-nanotechnology has great potential to cope with global challenges of food production/security, sustainability and climate change. However, despite the potential benefits of nanotechnology in agriculture so far, their relevance has not reached up to the field conditions. The elevating concerns about fate, transport, bioavailability, nanoparticles toxicity and inappropriateness of regulatory framework limit the complete acceptance and inclination to adopt nanotechnologies in agricultural sector. Moreover, the current research trends lack realistic approach that fail to attain comprehensive knowledge of risk assessment factors and further toxicity of nanoparticles toward agroecosystem components viz. plant, soil, soil microbiomes after their release into the environment. Hence in the present review we attempt to suggest certain key points to be addressed in the current and future agri-nanotechnology researches on the basis of recognized knowledge gaps with strong recommendation of incorporating biosynthesized nanoparticles to carry out analogous functions. In this perspective, the major points are as follows: (i) Mitigating risk assessment factors (responsible for fate, transport, behavior, bioavailability and toxicity) for alleviating the subsequent toxicity of nanoparticles. (ii) Optimizing permissible level of nanoparticles dose within the safety limits by performing dose dependent studies. (iii) Adopting realistic approach by designing the experiments in natural habitat and avoiding in vitro assays for accurate interpretation. (iv) Most importantly, translating environmental friendly and non-toxic biosynthesized nanoparticles from laboratory to field conditions for agricultural benefits. PMID:28421100

  18. Present status and future trends of R and D for HTS rotational machines in Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsukamoto, Osami, E-mail: osami-t@ynu.ac.jp

    2014-09-15

    Highlights: • R and D statuses of various HTS rotating machines developed in Japan are overviewed. • Design studies of various types of HTS wind power generators conducted in Japan are assessed. • Based on the present R and D statuses, future technical trends of HTS machines are discussed. • Introduction of iron cores into HTS windings drastically reduces amount of HTS wires and cost of HTS machines. - Abstract: Various HTS rotating machines, from multiple MW class to several 10 kW class, are being developed in Japan. R and D statuses of those machines are reviewed. Design studies of various types of HTS wind power generators are also conducted in Japan and their merits and demerits are discussed. Based on the present R and D statuses, future technical trends of HTS machines are discussed.

  19. Current status and future trends of medical physics in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azorin Nieto, J.

    2015-01-01

    Medical Physics is an area that applies the principles of physics to medicine, particularly in the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of diseases using ionizing and nonionizing radiation. The main attractive of medical physics is that it has a direct impact on the quality and safety of medical care in humans; this social component with direct implications for the population is of high value for Mexico. This paper describes the concepts of medical physics, trends and the current status of this discipline as a profession, which is directly related to the efforts of clinical research. It is also described what is, in my opinion, the future of medical physics in Mexico, emphasizing the fact that this field requires a substantial boost from universities and hospitals to recruit highly qualified young medical physicists and the support from government agencies such as Secretaria de Salud, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social and Instituto de Seguridad y Servicios Sociales para los Trabajadores del Estado through clinical research projects that allow the necessary evolution of medical physics into the hospital setting.

  20. Continuous cultivation of photosynthetic microorganisms: Approaches, applications and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Bruno D; Mota, Andre; Teixeira, Jose A; Vicente, Antonio A

    2015-11-01

    The possibility of using photosynthetic microorganisms, such as cyanobacteria and microalgae, for converting light and carbon dioxide into valuable biochemical products has raised the need for new cost-efficient processes ensuring a constant product quality. Food, feed, biofuels, cosmetics and pharmaceutics are among the sectors that can profit from the application of photosynthetic microorganisms. Biomass growth in a photobioreactor is a complex process influenced by multiple parameters, such as photosynthetic light capture and attenuation, nutrient uptake, photobioreactor hydrodynamics and gas-liquid mass transfer. In order to optimize productivity while keeping a standard product quality, a permanent control of the main cultivation parameters is necessary, where the continuous cultivation has shown to be the best option. However it is of utmost importance to recognize the singularity of continuous cultivation of cyanobacteria and microalgae due to their dependence on light availability and intensity. In this sense, this review provides comprehensive information on recent breakthroughs and possible future trends regarding technological and process improvements in continuous cultivation systems of microalgae and cyanobacteria, that will directly affect cost-effectiveness and product quality standardization. An overview of the various applications, techniques and equipment (with special emphasis on photobioreactors) in continuous cultivation of microalgae and cyanobacteria are presented. Additionally, mathematical modeling, feasibility, economics as well as the applicability of continuous cultivation into large-scale operation, are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Botnet detection techniques:review, future trends, and issues

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ahmad KARIM; Rosli Bin SALLEH; Muhammad SHIRAZ; Syed Adeel Ali SHAH; Irfan AWAN; Nor Badrul ANUAR

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the Internet has enabled access to widespread remote services in the distributed computing envi-ronment; however, integrity of data transmission in the distributed computing platform is hindered by a number of security issues. For instance, the botnet phenomenon is a prominent threat to Internet security, including the threat of malicious codes. The botnet phenomenon supports a wide range of criminal activities, including distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks, click fraud, phishing, malware distribution, spam emails, and building machines for illegitimate exchange of information/materials. Therefore, it is imperative to design and develop a robust mechanism for improving the botnet detection, analysis, and removal process. Currently, botnet detection techniques have been reviewed in different ways; however, such studies are limited in scope and lack discussions on the latest botnet detection techniques. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the latest state-of-the-art techniques for botnet detection and figures out the trends of previous and current research. It provides a thematic taxonomy for the classification of botnet detection techniques and highlights the implications and critical aspects by qualitatively analyzing such techniques. Related to our comprehensive review, we highlight future directions for improving the schemes that broadly span the entire botnet detection research field and identify the persistent and prominent research challenges that remain open.

  2. Biomicrofluidics: Recent trends and future challenges

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Tamal Das; Suman Chakraborty

    2009-08-01

    Biomicrofluidics is an active area of research at present, exploring the synergy of microfluidics with cellular and molecular biology, biotechnology, and biomedical engineering. The present article outlines the recent advancements in these areas, including the development of novel lab-on-a-chip based applications. Particular emphasis is given on the microfluidics-based handling of DNA, cells, and proteins, as well as fundamental microfluidic considerations for design of biomedical microdevices. Future directions of research on these topics are also discussed.

  3. Future trends of snowfall days in northern Spain from ENSEMBLES regional climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pons, M. R.; Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

    2016-06-01

    In a previous study Pons et al. (Clim Res 54(3):197-207, 2010. doi: 10.3354/cr01117g) reported a significant decreasing trend of snowfall occurrence in the Northern Iberian Peninsula since the mid 70s. The study was based on observations of annual snowfall frequency (measured as the annual number of snowfall days NSD) from a network of 33 stations ranging from 60 to 1350 m. In the present work we analyze the skill of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to reproduce this trend for the period 1961-2000 (using both reanalysis- and historical GCM-driven boundary conditions) and the trend and the associated uncertainty of the regional future projections obtained under the A1B scenario for the first half of the twenty-first century. In particular, we consider the regional simulation dataset from the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project, consisting of thirteen state-of-the-art RCMs run at 25 km resolution over Europe. While ERA40 severely underestimates both the mean NSD and its observed trend (-2.2 days/decade), the corresponding RCM simulations driven by the reanalysis appropriately capture the interannual variability and trends of the observed NSD (trends ranging from -3.4 to -0.7, -2.1 days/decade for the ensemble mean). The results driven by the GCM historical runs are quite variable, with trends ranging from -8.5 to 0.2 days/decade (-1.5 days/decade for the ensemble mean), and the greatest uncertainty by far being associated with the particular GCM used. Finally, the trends for the future 2011-2050 A1B runs are more consistent and significant, ranging in this case from -3.7 to -0.5 days/decade (-2.0 days/decade for the ensemble mean), indicating a future significant decreasing trend. These trends are mainly determined by the increasing temperatures, as indicated by the interannual correlation between temperature and NSD (-0.63 in the observations), which is preserved in both ERA40- and GCM-driven simulations.

  4. Knowledge Base of Collaborative Virtual Reference Systems:State of the Art and Future Trends%联合虚拟参考咨询系统知识库的发展现状与趋势

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    洪韵佳; 许鑫

    2012-01-01

    对国内外主流联合虚拟参考咨询系统的知识库构建与运作现状进行调研,并从知识库的基础构建、应用与服务、联合管理三个方面论述国内外现有参考咨询知识库的研究与应用现状,然后进一步从参考咨询服务的用户需求出发,对联合参考咨询知识库可能的发展趋势进行探讨。%Through a study of the knowledge base of main collaborative virtual reference systems at home and abroad, the paper discusses the status of research and application of the knowledge base from its foundation construction, service and collaborative management. Meanwhile, from the perspective of user demand, the future trends of knowledge base of collaborative virtual reference systems are also addressed.

  5. Current and Future Trends of the Automotive Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dieter Hermann Schramm

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Mobility, and especially individual physical mobility, is still an essential component of nearly all societies.The combustion engine was for more than a hundred years, and is still today, the backbone of road-based mobility. However, the guarantor for the triumphant advance of the combustion engine was by far not its technical superiority over its electrical rival at the beginning of the automobile era, but the energy density and the easy worldwide availability of fossil fuels as a means of energy storage. So, e.g. to store theenergy equivalent of one kg Gasoline, a lithium ion battery with a mass of about 180 kg would be required (Schramm, 2012, even if the higher efficiency of the electric motor vs. the combustion engine is taken into account. Actually an electric motor is much better suited as a drive source for a motor vehicle as an internal combustion engine. Only the achievable energy density along with the cost of its chemical-process based storage, the battery, still prevent its immediate breakthrough in the automotive drive technology.Nevertheless, the German Government has set the target to bring at least a million electrified motor vehicles on Germany's roads by 2020, which is already impossible to reach from today’s perspective.However, strategies are needed to achieve a sustainable transition to electric mobility. This, in addition to continued research on high-efficiency batteries which also includes the development of vehicles that offer a good compromise between coverage, costs and consumption while satisfying the mobility needs of their users.Another trend that will lead to a paradigm shift in the use of individually-powered vehicles is the automation of the task of driving up to the highly automated or even autonomous vehicle. The technical prerequisites like sensors and actuators for these new systems are already available at least for application on motorways and rural regions, e.g. in Germany. More activities

  6. Temporal effects in trend prediction: identifying the most popular nodes in the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

    2015-01-01

    Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes' recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail.

  7. Temporal effects in trend prediction: identifying the most popular nodes in the future.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanbo Zhou

    Full Text Available Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes' recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP. The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail.

  8. Trends of Future Heavy Snowfall and Accumulated Freezing Indexes in Japanese Snowy Cold Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harada, Y.; Matsuzawa, M.

    2015-12-01

    To achieve sufficient, effective winter road maintenance, it is important that long-term snow and ice hazard mitigation plans be examined and formulated by taking into consideration the influence of climate change. In this study, we have developed a method of predicting more accurately the indexes of heavy snowfall events that occur over short periods of time and future projections of winter temperatures based on the relationship of observed data to the climate model predicted values. The indexes for heavy snowfall were the maximum 24-hour snowfall and the frequency of 10-cm or more snowfall within a maximum 6-hour period. Indexes for cold weather were the accumulated freezing index in winter and the number of days of freeze-thaw days. Subsequently, we have applied this methodology for Japanese snowy cold regions, in order to clarify the trends for near future and century-end future period changes. The results indicate that current measures to mitigate the effects of extremely heavy snowfall in inland areas of Hokkaido may require enhancement of operational procedures. In addition, the possibility of pavement and concrete damage in the colder regions is expected to increase due to the increment in the number of freeze-thaw days. Based upon the results of this study, we will identify the road management issues associated with climate change using the recent trends and predictions for the near future and century-end future climate periods.

  9. Classification of future 5 MW turbines by extrapolation of current trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thakoer, R.; Van Kuik, G.A.M.; Van Leeuwen, H.L.

    1999-09-01

    This report is part of the STABTOOL project. The goals of the STABTOOL project can be summarised as follows: (1) first establish the elastic configuration of the present megawatt scaled wind turbines, and making an inventory of the present design trends and trends for future wind turbine developments w.r.t changes in the elastic configuration; (2) to make an inventory of the different types of instabilities which can occur for the present and next generation wind turbines for both onshore and offshore applications; (3) to make an inventory of analysis and design methods and development or adjustment of calculation methods. The final objective of the STABTOOL project is to create STABility TOOLs: a simple set of calculation models and methods for specific forms of aeroelastic instabilities and vibration problems which are applicable for both present and future large wind turbines. This report concerns the up scaling of the selected elastic configurations described in ST-NW-1-004: 2-blade, (active)pitch controlled, fixed speed (Kvaerner WTS 80M); 3-blade, (active)stall controlled, fixed speed (Nedwind 62 ); 3-blade, pitch controlled variable speed (Lagerwey 50/1000). Based on scaling rules and extrapolation of trend figures, the characteristics of the future 5MW class of wind turbines is estimated. The Nedwind based extrapolation is considered to be an onshore turbine, whereas the others are offshore. 5 refs.

  10. Current trends and future directions in flower development research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scutt, Charlie P; Vandenbussche, Michiel

    2014-11-01

    Flowers, the reproductive structures of the approximately 400 000 extant species of flowering plants, exist in a tremendous range of forms and sizes, mainly due to developmental differences involving the number, arrangement, size and form of the floral organs of which they consist. However, this tremendous diversity is underpinned by a surprisingly robust basic floral structure in which a central group of carpels forms on an axis of determinate growth, almost invariably surrounded by two successive zones containing stamens and perianth organs, respectively. Over the last 25 years, remarkable progress has been achieved in describing the molecular mechanisms that control almost all aspects of flower development, from the phase change that initiates flowering to the final production of fruits and seeds. However, this work has been performed almost exclusively in a small number of eudicot model species, chief among which is Arabidopsis thaliana. Studies of flower development must now be extended to a much wider phylogenetic range of flowering plants and, indeed, to their closest living relatives, the gymnosperms. Studies of further, more wide-ranging models should provide insights that, for various reasons, cannot be obtained by studying the major existing models alone. The use of further models should also help to explain how the first flowering plants evolved from an unknown, although presumably gymnosperm-like ancestor, and rapidly diversified to become the largest major plant group and to dominate the terrestrial flora. The benefits for society of a thorough understanding of flower development are self-evident, as human life depends to a large extent on flowering plants and on the fruits and seeds they produce. In this preface to the Special Issue, we introduce eleven articles on flower development, representing work in both established and further models, including gymnosperms. We also present some of our own views on current trends and future directions of the

  11. Intelligent robot trends and predictions for the .net future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Ernest L.

    2001-10-01

    An intelligent robot is a remarkably useful combination of a manipulator, sensors and controls. The use of these machines in factory automation can improve productivity, increase product quality and improve competitiveness. This paper presents a discussion of recent and future technical and economic trends. During the past twenty years the use of industrial robots that are equipped not only with precise motion control systems but also with sensors such as cameras, laser scanners, or tactile sensors that permit adaptation to a changing environment has increased dramatically. Intelligent robot products have been developed in many cases for factory automation and for some hospital and home applications. To reach an even higher degree of applications, the addition of learning may be required. Recently, learning theories such as the adaptive critic have been proposed. In this type of learning, a critic provides a grade to the controller of an action module such as a robot. The adaptive critic is a good model for human learning. In general, the critic may be considered to be the human with the teach pendant, plant manager, line supervisor, quality inspector or the consumer. If the ultimate critic is the consumer, then the quality inspector must model the consumer's decision-making process and use this model in the design and manufacturing operations. Can the adaptive critic be used to advance intelligent robots? Intelligent robots have historically taken decades to be developed and reduced to practice. Methods for speeding this development include technology such as rapid prototyping and product development and government, industry and university cooperation.

  12. The Future at Work. An Assessment of Changing Workplace Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Interstate Conference of Employment Security Agencies, Inc., Washington, DC.

    Technological and demographic changes affect the nation's employment landscape. The most consistent trend of the century has been the shrinking workweek. By the year 2000, many workers will spend only 32 hours per week at work. Other workplace changes will continue the quest for more work satisfaction: technical trends (flextime/telecommuting);…

  13. Ten Trends: Educating Children for a Profoundly Different Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, Gary

    This book focuses on 10 major trends expected to change society and affect education in the 21st century. The 10 trends are as follows: (1) for the first time in history, the old will outnumber the young; (2) the country will become a nation of minorities; (3) social and intellectual capital will become the primary economic values in society; (4)…

  14. Future trends and consumer lifestyles with regard to meat consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.

    in quality perception, shopping fast and easy vs. shopping in specialized outlets, the role of convenience and meat avoidance in cooking, and the role of concerns about the meat production process in purchasing. Indicators for each of these trends are discussed.......Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues...

  15. Future trends and consumer lifestyles with regard to meat consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.

    2006-01-01

    in quality perception, shopping fast and easy vs. shopping in specialized outlets, the role of convenience and meat avoidance in cooking, and the role of concerns about the meat production process in purchasing. Indicators for each of these trends are discussed.......Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues...

  16. Future trends and consumer lifestyles with regard to meat consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.

    2006-01-01

    Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues...... in quality perception, shopping fast and easy vs. shopping in specialized outlets, the role of convenience and meat avoidance in cooking, and the role of concerns about the meat production process in purchasing. Indicators for each of these trends are discussed....

  17. Future trends and consumer lifestyles with regard to meat consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.

    Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues...... in quality perception, shopping fast and easy vs. shopping in specialized outlets, the role of convenience and meat avoidance in cooking, and the role of concerns about the meat production process in purchasing. Indicators for each of these trends are discussed....

  18. Taking Charge of Your Career Path: A Future Trend of the Workforce

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMattina, Cara; Ferris, Lisa-Anne

    2013-01-01

    Workplace trends portray relevant information regarding the present and future of the workforce and its members. These trends signify changes within the workplace regarding performance, retention, satisfaction and many other areas that affect the individual employee, as well as the organization and industry as a whole. Trends can be seen in…

  19. Past, Present and Future Trends for NASA's EEE Parts Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, Michael J.

    2003-01-01

    The foundation of NASA's Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) parts program is standardization. Standardization helps to reduce the number of unknown variables present as a project or program progresses; unknown variables equate to unknown risk. NASA spacecraft are usually 'one-offs' or at least part of a very short run, and every new part that is used represents a risk that has to be understood and mitigated as necessary. This equates directly to time and cost. Standardization of component parts is used to provide a foundation of known, dependable, qualified parts upon which a safe, reliable system can be built. In addition, the evaluation and selection of parts for the standard parts list unifies the activity under one group of experts rather than having engineers on each project overlapping and duplicating efforts. Thus, the project support engineers are able to concentrate on understanding and mitigating the risks for the non standard parts required to meet specific requirements of their project. Rapid technology change is producing conditions that make any form of parts-based standardization increasingly difficult, particularly the use of Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) parts and assemblies. There are many complications to COTS-based standardization. COTS parts change rapidly and unpredictably, often have different characteristics fiom manufacturer to manufacturer, frequently are only available through distribution, have no universal specification and have variable and unpredictable radiation characteristics. This presentation will discuss some potential approaches to COTS parts standardization. Further into the future, in three to five years perhaps, the use of COTS boards and boxes will be extensive and standardization at these levels of assembly will be necessary. In five to ten years, most major spacecraft functions will probably be performed by COTS boards. How will this be achieved? What role will the parts engineer play, if any? This

  20. Training in Spanish organizations: Trends and future perspectives

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Maria Jose Rubio Hurtado; Maria Dolors Millan Guasch; Flor Cabrera Rodríguez; Antoni Navio Gámez; Pilar Pineda Herrero

    2011-01-01

    ...: the enterprises' activity sector, gender and job position. Findings: The research describes the actual state of training trends and the changes that seem to glimpse out of the considered dimensions...

  1. Molecular typing of Sarcocystis neurona: current status and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsheikha, Hany M; Mansfield, Linda S

    2007-10-21

    Sarcocystis neurona is an important protozoal pathogen because it causes the serious neurological disease equine protozoal myeloencephalitis (EPM). The capacity of this organism to cause a wide spectrum of neurological signs in horses and the broad geographic distribution of observed cases in the Americas drive the need for sensitive, reliable and rapid typing methods to characterize strains. Various molecular methods have been developed and used to diagnose EPM due to S. neurona, to identify S. neurona isolates and to determine the heterogeneity and evolutionary relatedness within this species and related Sarcocystis spp. These methods included sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE), immuno-fluorescent assay (IFA), slide agglutination test (SAT), SnSAG-specific ELISA, random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD), PCR-based restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP), amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) fingerprinting, and sequence analysis of surface protein genes, ribosomal genes, microsatellite alleles and other molecular markers. Here, the utility of these molecular methods is reviewed and evaluated with respect to the need for molecular approaches that utilize well-characterized polymorphic, simple, independent, and stable genetic markers. These tools have the potential to add to knowledge of the genetic population structure of S. neurona and to provide new insights into the pathogenesis of EPM and S. neurona epidemiology. In particular, these methods provide new tools to address the hypothesis that particular genetic variants are associated with adverse clinical outcomes (severe pathotypes). The ultimate goal is to utilize them in future studies to improve treatment and prevention strategies.

  2. Systemic Immunotherapy for Urothelial Cancer: Current Trends and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Shilpa; Gill, David; Poole, Austin; Agarwal, Neeraj

    2017-01-27

    Urothelial cancer of the bladder, renal pelvis, ureter, and other urinary organs is the fifth most common cancer in the United States, and systemic platinum-based chemotherapy remains the standard of care for first-line treatment of advanced/metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC). Until recently, there were very limited options for patients who are refractory to chemotherapy, or do not tolerate chemotherapy due to toxicities and overall outcomes have remained very poor. While the role of immunotherapy was first established in non-muscle invasive bladder cancer in the 1970s, no systemic immunotherapy was approved for advanced disease until the recent approval of a programmed death ligand-1 (PD-L1) inhibitor, atezolizumab, in patients with advanced/metastatic UC who have progressed on platinum-containing regimens. This represents a significant milestone in this disease after a void of over 30 years. In addition to atezolizumab, a variety of checkpoint inhibitors have shown a significant activity in advanced/metastatic urothelial carcinoma and are expected to gain Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval in the near future. The introduction of novel immunotherapy agents has led to rapid changes in the field of urothelial carcinoma. Numerous checkpoint inhibitors are being tested alone or in combination in the first and subsequent-line therapies of metastatic disease, as well as neoadjuvant and adjuvant settings. They are also being studied in combination with radiation therapy and for non-muscle invasive bladder cancer refractory to BCG. Furthermore, immunotherapy is being utilized for those ineligible for firstline platinum-based chemotherapy. This review outlines the novel immunotherapy agents which have either been approved, or are currently being investigated in clinical trials in UC.

  3. Systemic Immunotherapy for Urothelial Cancer: Current Trends and Future Directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shilpa Gupta

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Urothelial cancer of the bladder, renal pelvis, ureter, and other urinary organs is the fifth most common cancer in the United States, and systemic platinum-based chemotherapy remains the standard of care for first-line treatment of advanced/metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC. Until recently, there were very limited options for patients who are refractory to chemotherapy, or do not tolerate chemotherapy due to toxicities and overall outcomes have remained very poor. While the role of immunotherapy was first established in non-muscle invasive bladder cancer in the 1970s, no systemic immunotherapy was approved for advanced disease until the recent approval of a programmed death ligand-1 (PD-L1 inhibitor, atezolizumab, in patients with advanced/metastatic UC who have progressed on platinum-containing regimens. This represents a significant milestone in this disease after a void of over 30 years. In addition to atezolizumab, a variety of checkpoint inhibitors have shown a significant activity in advanced/metastatic urothelial carcinoma and are expected to gain Food and Drug Administration (FDA approval in the near future. The introduction of novel immunotherapy agents has led to rapid changes in the field of urothelial carcinoma. Numerous checkpoint inhibitors are being tested alone or in combination in the first and subsequent-line therapies of metastatic disease, as well as neoadjuvant and adjuvant settings. They are also being studied in combination with radiation therapy and for non-muscle invasive bladder cancer refractory to BCG. Furthermore, immunotherapy is being utilized for those ineligible for firstline platinum-based chemotherapy. This review outlines the novel immunotherapy agents which have either been approved, or are currently being investigated in clinical trials in UC.

  4. European regional populations: current trends, future pathways and policy options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rees, P.H.; van der Gaag, N.L.; de Beer, J.A.A.; Heins, F.

    2012-01-01

    Europe is currently experiencing an ageing population and slowing population growth of both the total and working-age populations. These trends are likely to continue. Even though population ageing will affect all European regions, different regions will be affected in different ways. Even under

  5. African American Youth Unemployment: Current Trends and Future Prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Herbert M.

    1990-01-01

    Examines African American employment trends compared with increases or decreases in economic growth and Federal welfare spending during the 1970s and 1980s, focusing primarily on unemployment and labor force participation rates among African American youth. Studies the impact of structural unemployment, racial discrimination, and immigration on…

  6. Assessment and E-Learning: Current Issues and Future Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowie, Neil; Sakui, Keiko

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes different ways in which digital technology can be used for language learning. It then identifies some key trends connecting assessment and technology in language learning and higher education: the use of automated systems to enhance traditional assessment practices; the use of Web 2.0 tools to facilitate new assessment…

  7. Future Trends: Their Impact Upon Higher Education Institutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambrecht, Patricia S.

    1984-01-01

    National and global trends in industry, technology, economics, short- vs. long-term planning, decentralization, cooperation vs. self-help, representative vs. participatory democracy, demography, alternatives for society, and youth vs. adult orientation and their implications for higher education are discussed. (MSE)

  8. FUTURE TRENDS IN MICROELECTRONICS - IMPACT ON DETECTOR READOUT.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' CONNOR, P.

    2006-04-03

    Mainstream CMOS is now a well-established detector readout technology. We review technology scaling trends and limits, the implementation of analog circuits in digital CMOS processes, and radiation resistance. Emphasis is placed on the growing importance of power dissipation in ultra-scaled technologies.

  9. Understanding future projected changes and trends in extreme precipitation and streamflow events in ten Polish catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meresa, Hadush; Romanowicz, Renata; Napiorkoski, Jaroslaw

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study is to investigate methods of trend detection in hydro-climatic high and low indices using novel and conventional tools, for future climate projections in the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. The climate meteorological projections are obtained from regional climate models or/and global circulation models forced with IPCC SRES A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The study area includes ten catchments in Poland. The catchments have diverse hydro-climatic conditions. They are covered mostly by forest and are semi-natural. The flood regime of all the catchments is driven either by rainfall and/or snow-melt. Streamflow projections are provided by running the HBV hydrological model, coupled with climate models for the catchments. The trends are analyzed using a conventional Modified Mann Kendall statistical approach, a time frequency approach based on wavelet discrete transform (DWT) and the Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) method. We address the problems of auto-correlation, seasonality and inter-annual variability of the derived indices. A Modified Mann Kendall (MMK) method is applied to cope with the autocorrelation of the time series. The DHR method is based on the unobserved component approach. Together with estimates of the components, the uncertainty of the estimates is also calculated. The results of the DHR analysis (trend) are compared with the calculated MMK and DWT trends. Among other indices we study the temporal patterns of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), as well as Maximum Annual Flows and Minimum Annual Flows. The results indicate that changes in the trends of the projected indices are more conservative when DHR methods are applied than conventional trend techniques. The wavelet-based approach is the most subjective and gives the least conservative trend estimates. Trends indicate an increase in the amount of precipitation, followed by

  10. Food, Paper, Wood, or Energy? Global Trends and Future Swedish Forest Use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Westholm

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a futures study of international forest trends. The study, produced as part of the Swedish Future Forest program, focuses on global changes of importance for future Swedish forest use. It is based on previous international research, policy documents, and 24 interviews with selected key experts and/or actors related to the forest sector, and its findings will provide a basis for future research priorities. The forest sector, here defined as the economic, social, and cultural contributions to life and human welfare derived from forest and forest-based activities, faces major change. Four areas stand out as particularly important: changing energy systems, emerging international climate policies, changing governance systems, and shifting global land use systems. We argue that global developments are, and will be, important for future Swedish forest use. The forest sector is in transition and forest-, energy, climate- and global land use issues are likely to become increasingly intertwined. Therefore, the “forest sector” must be disembedded and approached as an open system in interplay with other systems.

  11. Access to Legislation in Europe: Overview and Future Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martynas Mockus

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses problems facing electronic legislation development (especially legislation processes of publishing acts in EU and EFTA member countries.All European countries were publishing acts officially on paper until the end of year 2000. The way of publishing acts officially was the same in all Europe countries, except that some counties had one “official journal” in which legal acts and other official documents and legal notices were published, and other countries had separate legal gazettes for acts publishing and an official gazette for publishing other official documents and legal notices.At the beginning of 2001 Norway started to publish acts officially in digital form, and only 12-20 times a year paper editions to present the statutes and regulations enacted since the publication of the previous issue are published. In 2002 Estonia decided to finish the publishing of paper editions, and started to publish acts only electronically. Till 2011 more than 10 European countries started to publish acts officially in digital format.Author discusses the advantages, principles, and legitimate expectation of electronic legislation. For future electronic legislation information systems developments the following principles should be a guide: broad/universal and equal access to legislation, reliability of the means of publicity, integrity of information, easy access to the requisite information. The advantages of digital act forms, and internet based publications are instantaneous outreach to the public, free of charge, information easily accessible and retrievable, voluminous technical acts easier to handle, no printing costs, more environmentally-friendly, more and more people use ICT to seek information, no time constraints to the availability of data, legal certainty will be granted.The author thinks that before creating future digital legislation information systems, some procedures shall be done. If we want to have pan

  12. Access to Legislation in Europe: Overview and Future Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martynas Mockus

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses problems facing electronic legislation development (especially legislation processes of publishing acts in EU and EFTA member countries. All European countries were publishing acts officially on paper until the end of year 2000. The way of publishing acts officially was the same in all Europe countries, except that some counties had one “official journal” in which legal acts and other official documents and legal notices were published, and other countries had separate legal gazettes for acts publishing and an official gazette for publishing other official documents and legal notices. At the beginning of 2001 Norway started to publish acts officially in digital form, and only 12-20 times a year paper editions to present the statutes and regulations enacted since the publication of the previous issue are published. In 2002 Estonia decided to finish the publishing of paper editions, and started to publish acts only electronically. Till 2011 more than 10 European countries started to publish acts officially in digital format. Author discusses the advantages, principles, and legitimate expectation of electronic legislation. For future electronic legislation information systems developments the following principles should be a guide: broad/universal and equal access to legislation, reliability of the means of publicity, integrity of information, easy access to the requisite information. The advantages of digital act forms, and internet based publications are instantaneous outreach to the public, free of charge, information easily accessible and retrievable, voluminous technical acts easier to handle, no printing costs, more environmentally-friendly, more and more people use ICT to seek information, no time constraints to the availability of data, legal certainty will be granted. The author thinks that before creating future digital legislation information systems, some procedures shall be done. If we want to have pan

  13. Primary prevention of diabetes mellitus: current strategies and future trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasanta K. Bhattacharya

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of this paper is to find evidence for primary prevention of type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM from epidemiological studies and clinical trials, and the feasibility of applying these interventions in resource limited countries. T2DM, which accounts for more than nine-tenths of all diabetics, results from inadequate insulin secretion or underlying insulin resistance. The prevalence of diabetes, mainly T2DM, has increased rapidly during the last few decades worldwide. Since the genetic background is unlikely to change during this short time period, the growing epidemic of T2DM is more likely due to changes in environmental or lifestyle risk factors including obesity, physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol and stress. The scope and feasibility for primary prevention of T2DM is based on elimination of these risk factors. This evidence that T2DM is preventable comes from epidemiologic studies and clinical trials of effect of lifestyle changes and drugs in development of T2DM. The positive effects are more profound and safer with lifestyle modifications (LSM compared to medications. This is shown to be effective globally, across various ethnicities and races and sustainable on long-term follow-up. However, there is a major challenge in translating this evidence into economically viable and sustained community programs, as these LSM interventions are expensive, even from western standards point of view. Future plan should focus on health education of the public, improving the national capacity to detect and manage the environmental risks including strategies to reduce stress, and development of innovative, cost effective, and scalable methodologies.

  14. European Regional Populations: Current Trends, Future Pathways, and Policy Options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rees, Philip; van der Gaag, Nicole; de Beer, Joop; Heins, Frank

    2012-11-01

    Europe is currently experiencing an ageing population and slowing population growth of both the total and working-age populations. These trends are likely to continue. Even though population ageing will affect all European regions, different regions will be affected in different ways. Even under favorable conditions, 35-40 % of all NUTS2 regions will face a labor force decline. If economic conditions are poor, some regions may continue to grow, but 55-70 % of the regions will see a labor force decline by 10 % or more. In most regions of Eastern Europe, the labor force may decrease by more than 30 %. To keep regions prosperous (maintaining competitiveness) and to avoid worse inequality (maintaining cohesion), policy-makers must find ways to cope with these challenges through new fiscal and social policies, though policies directly affecting demographic and migratory trends may also be needed.

  15. Current and future technological trends in positron emission tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karp, J S; Freifelder, R

    1992-04-01

    Current trends in positron emission tomography (PET) instrumentation are examined, with an emphasis on providing information suitable to the prospective PET user. Basic principles underlying PET are explained and information on performance measurements, techniques, and quantitation are given in order to allow the user to compare and contrast different types of PET scanners. These scanner designs are described. Specific examples are given and the combination of PET with other modalities is discussed.

  16. CURRENT STATE OF POULTRY BREEDING AND ITS FUTURE TRENDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordana Kralik

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Poultry production in eastern Croatia is developed by individual producers mainly in semi intensive way, and within the organized poultry systems where the process is organized in a modern, intensive way. There is a tradition of breeding hens and geese in this area. Poultry products - meat and eggs are important in supplying the population with animal protein, minerals and vitamins. Modern hybrid hens are used for egg production and for meat production in the intensive production. Today geese breeding in these areas are completely neglected. Croatia as a member of European Union, has possibility of the placement of autochthonous breeds of poultry such as Hrvatica hen, Zagorje turkey and Podravian goose. Financial supports at the national level are allocated for the first two autochthonous breeds of poultry because these breeds can, with good production traits, represent genetic resources and strategic reserves in the future development of domestic poultry genotypes. Poultry production is especial emphasis in accordance with the criteria of welfare and health of poultry. This paper discusses further development of poultry in terms of production of poultry meat and eggs as a functional food. The composition and content of nutricines in meat and eggs can be affected by feed composition. Desired nutricines are installed in muscular tissue of poultry by using feed and adding some components. Consumption of eggs and poultry meat enriched by selenium, lutein and omega-3 fatty acids affects the improvement of the quality of the human diet. The recent researches show that chicken can effectively be enriched in carnosine - ingredients that are now taught as “anti-aging” factor. Enrichment of poultry products with nutricines gives greater importance to these foods in the diet of the population than the former one, mainly based on the nutritional aspect. Greater selection of quality poultry products can be a significant factor in the development of

  17. Foresight, trends and materials – inspiration for future products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenau, Torben Anker; Lauritsen, Stine Brahm

    2009-01-01

    For many years the functional performance in products has been used to distinguish the product in front of competing products. Examples are speed and convenience in cars, computer power in laptops, weight in bicycles, weather resistance in clothes etc. However as many of the functional properties...... are interesting when designing new products since they contribute with a long range of novel and improved physical properties like durability, weight, strength, appearance, environment and reduced unit cost. In a trend perspective the new materials open for more advanced and sophisticated semiotic properties....

  18. Rethinking EU energy security considering past trends and future prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amineh, Mehdi P.; Crijns - Graus, Wina

    2014-01-01

    EU energy policy objectives are directed at three highly interdependent areas: energy supply security, competitiveness and decarbonization to prevent climate change. In this paper, we focus on the issue of energy supply security. Security of energy supply for the immediate and medium-term future is

  19. Trends toward the Future in Physical Activity Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles, John M.; Charles, P. Kelly

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of multiple activity program eliminations and frequent downgrading of activity programs nationwide, the question to be addressed is how we can draw upon our interdisciplinary, intergenerational, and intercultural understandings of human movement to construct physical activity programs for the future that might withstand the test of…

  20. Rethinking EU energy security considering past trends and future prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amineh, Mehdi P.; Crijns - Graus, Wina

    2014-01-01

    EU energy policy objectives are directed at three highly interdependent areas: energy supply security, competitiveness and decarbonization to prevent climate change. In this paper, we focus on the issue of energy supply security. Security of energy supply for the immediate and medium-term future is

  1. OER in the Mobile Era: Content Repositories’ Features for Mobile Devices and Future Trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tabuenca, Bernardo; Drachsler, Hendrik; Ternier, Stefaan; Specht, Marcus

    2012-01-01

    Tabuenca, B., Drachsler, H., Ternier, S., & Specht, M. (2012, December). OER in the Mobile Era: Content Repositories’ Features for Mobile Devices and Future Trends. Europe eleaning papers, [Special issue] Mobile learning 2012.

  2. Cochin backwaters: An introduction to the system, prior studies, historical trends and future implication

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DineshKumar, P.K.; Sankaranarayanan, V.N.; Devi, K.S.

    Studies over the last 2 decades in the Cochin backwater system in India are reviewed to have an integrated profile with a point to evaluate future development projects in terms of potential consequences to the estuarine ecosystem. The trends...

  3. Future trends in worldwide river nitrogen transport and related nitrous oxide emissions : a scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroeze, C.; Seitzinger, S.P.; Domingues, R.

    2001-01-01

    We analyze possible future trends in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export by world rivers and associated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O). Our scenarios either assume that current trends continue or that nitrogen (N) inputs to aquatic systems are reduced as a result of changes in agriculture pr

  4. Future Performance Trend Indicators: A Current Value Approach to Human Resources Accounting. Report V: The Value Attribution Process. Technical Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapointe, Jean B.; And Others

    The development of future performance trend indicators is based on the current value approach to human resource accounting. The value attribution portion of the current value approach is used to estimate the dollar value of observed changes in the state of the human organization. The procedure for value attribution includes: prediction of changes…

  5. Energy Use in China: Sectoral Trends and Future Outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Nan; McNeil, Michael A.; Fridley, David; Lin, Jiang; Price,Lynn; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Sathaye, Jayant; Levine, Mark

    2007-10-04

    This report provides a detailed, bottom-up analysis ofenergy consumption in China. It recalibrates official Chinese governmentstatistics by reallocating primary energy into categories more commonlyused in international comparisons. It also provides an analysis of trendsin sectoral energy consumption over the past decades. Finally, itassesses the future outlook for the critical period extending to 2020,based on assumptions of likely patterns of economic activity,availability of energy services, and energy intensities. The followingare some highlights of the study's findings: * A reallocation of sectorenergy consumption from the 2000 official Chinese government statisticsfinds that: * Buildings account for 25 percent of primary energy, insteadof 19 percent * Industry accounts for 61 percent of energy instead of 69percent * Industrial energy made a large and unexpected leap between2000-2005, growing by an astonishing 50 percent in the 3 years between2002 and 2005. * Energy consumption in the iron and steel industry was 40percent higher than predicted * Energy consumption in the cement industrywas 54 percent higher than predicted * Overall energy intensity in theindustrial sector grew between 2000 and 2003. This is largely due tointernal shifts towards the most energy-intensive sub-sectors, an effectwhich more than counterbalances the impact of efficiency increases. *Industry accounted for 63 percent of total primary energy consumption in2005 - it is expected to continue to dominate energy consumption through2020, dropping only to 60 percent by that year. * Even assuming thatgrowth rates in 2005-2020 will return to the levels of 2000-2003,industrial energy will grow from 42 EJ in 2005 to 72 EJ in 2020. * Thepercentage of transport energy used to carry passengers (instead offreight) will double from 37 percent to 52 percent between 2000 to 2020,.Much of this increase is due to private car ownership, which willincrease by a factor of 15 from 5.1 million in 2000 to

  6. Future trends in environmental mercury concentrations: implications for prevention strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunderland Elsie M

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In their new paper, Bellanger and coauthors show substantial economic impacts to the EU from neurocognitive impairment associated with methylmercury (MeHg exposures. The main source of MeHg exposure is seafood consumption, including many marine species harvested from the global oceans. Fish, birds and other wildlife are also susceptible to the impacts of MeHg and already exceed toxicological thresholds in vulnerable regions like the Arctic. Most future emissions scenarios project a growth or stabilization of anthropogenic mercury releases relative to present-day levels. At these emissions levels, inputs of mercury to ecosystems are expected to increase substantially in the future, in part due to growth in the legacy reservoirs of mercury in oceanic and terrestrial ecosystems. Seawater mercury concentration trajectories in areas such as the North Pacific Ocean that supply large quantities of marine fish to the global seafood market are projected to increase by more than 50% by 2050. Fish mercury levels and subsequent human and biological exposures are likely to also increase because production of MeHg in ocean ecosystems is driven by the supply of available inorganic mercury, among other factors. Analyses that only consider changes in primary anthropogenic emissions are likely to underestimate the severity of future deposition and concentration increases associated with growth in mercury reservoirs in the land and ocean. We therefore recommend that future policy analyses consider the fully coupled interactions among short and long-lived reservoirs of mercury in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial ecosystems. Aggressive anthropogenic emission reductions are needed to reduce MeHg exposures and associated health impacts on humans and wildlife and protect the integrity of one of the last wild-food sources globally. In the near-term, public health advice on safe fish consumption choices such as smaller species, younger fish, and harvests

  7. The past, current and future trends in DNA vaccine immunisations

    OpenAIRE

    Sidgi Syed Anwer Abdo Hasson; Juma Khalifa Zayid Al-Busaidi; Talal Abdulmalek Sallam

    2015-01-01

    This review focuses on DNA vaccines, denoting the last two decades since the early substantiation of preclinical protection was published in Science in 1993 by Ulmer et al. In spite of being safely administered and easily engineered and manufactured DNA vaccine, it holds the future prospects of immunization by inducing potent cellular immune responses against infectious and non-infectious diseases. It is well documented that injection of DNA plasmid encoding a desired gene of interest can res...

  8. 21世纪上半叶老年家庭照料需求成本变动趋势分析%Analysis on Trends of Future Home-based Care Needs and Costs for Elderly in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曾毅; 陈华帅; 王正联

    2012-01-01

    -child with late childbearing policy scenario. Thus, we propose China to start the soft-landing of the two-child with late childbearing policy as soon as possible. We also discuss the effects of possible changes in mortality and the trends in probabilities of the elderly ADL status transitions on elderly home-based care needs and costs in the future in China.

  9. NOx emissions in China: historical trends and future perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, B.; Wang, S. X.; Liu, H.; Xu, J. Y.; Fu, K.; Klimont, Z.; Hao, J. M.; He, K. B.; Cofala, J.; Amann, M.

    2013-10-01

    Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient air quality. Within this study we estimated the historical NOx emissions in China for the period 1995-2010, and calculated future NOx emissions every five years until 2030 under six emission scenarios. Driven by the fast growth of energy consumption, we estimate the NOx emissions in China increased rapidly from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Power plants, industry and transportation were major sources of NOx emissions, accounting for 28.4%, 34.0%, and 25.4% of the total NOx emissions in 2010, respectively. Two energy scenarios, a business as usual scenario (BAU) and an alternative policy scenario (PC), were developed to project future energy consumption. In 2030, total energy consumption is projected to increase by 64% and 27% from 2010 level respectively. Three sets of end-of-pipe pollution control measures, including baseline, progressive, and stringent control case, were developed for each energy scenario, thereby constituting six emission scenarios. By 2030, the total NOx emissions are projected to increase (compared to 2010) by 36% in the baseline while policy cases result in reduction up to 61% in the most ambitious case with stringent control measures. More than a third of the reduction achieved by 2030 between least and most ambitious scenario comes from power sector, and more than half is distributed equally between industry and transportation sectors. Selective catalytic reduction dominates the NOx emission reductions in power plants, while life style changes, control measures for industrial boilers and cement production are major contributors to reductions in industry. Timely enforcement of legislation on heavy-duty vehicles would contribute significantly to NOx emission reductions. About 30% of the NOx emission reduction in 2020 and 40% of the NOx emission reduction in 2030 could be treated as the ancillary benefit of energy conservation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to

  10. NOx emissions in China: historical trends and future perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Zhao

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Nitrogen oxides (NOx are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient air quality. Within this study we estimated the historical NOx emissions in China for the period 1995–2010, and calculated future NOx emissions every five years until 2030 under six emission scenarios. Driven by the fast growth of energy consumption, we estimate the NOx emissions in China increased rapidly from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Power plants, industry and transportation were major sources of NOx emissions, accounting for 28.4, 34.0, and 25.4% of the total NOx emissions in 2010, respectively. Two energy scenarios, a business as usual scenario (BAU and an alternative policy scenario (PC, were developed to project future energy consumption. In 2030, total energy consumption is projected to increase by 64 and 27% from 2010 level respectively. Three sets of end-of-pipe pollution control measures, including baseline, progressive, and stringent control case, were developed for each energy scenario, thereby constituting six emission scenarios. By 2030, the total NOx emissions are projected to increase (compared to 2010 by 36% in the baseline while policy cases result in reduction up to 61% in the most ambitious case with stringent control measures. More than a third of the reduction achieved by 2030 between least and most ambitious scenario comes from power sector and more than half is distributed equally between industry and transportation sectors. Selective Catalytic Reduction dominates the NOx emission reductions in power plants, while life style changes, control measures for industrial boilers and cement production are major contributors to reductions in industry. Timely enforcement of legislation on heavy duty vehicles would contribute significantly to NOx emission reductions. About 30% of the NOx emission reduction in 2020, and 40% of the NOx emission reduction in 2030 could be treated as the ancillary benefit of energy conservation. Sensitivity analysis was

  11. Clinical applications and future trends in cardiac CTA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaspar, T.; Peled, N. [Dept. of Radiology, Lady Davis Carmel Medical Center, Haifa (Israel); Halon, D.; Rubinshtein, R. [Dept. of Radiology, Lady Davis Carmel Medical Center, Haifa (Israel); Dept. of Radiology and Cardiology, Lady Davis Carmel Medical Center, Haifa (Israel)

    2005-11-15

    The new 64-slice multidetector computed tomographic scanners with improved temporal and special resolution are well suited to cardiac scanning allowing large area coverage and very short scan time. Current applications include plaque and stenosis assessment, evaluation of bypass graft patency and stenosis, coronary artery anomalies and recently, assessment of implanted coronary stents. Possible fields of utilization include emergency room triage of chest pain, and screening prior to invasive angiography in order to reduce the load of invasive studies. The future holds the prospect of automatic analysis of coronary plaque and luminal stenosis possibly opening up a new vista for non-invasive risk assessment. (orig.)

  12. Future trends in microelectronics journey into the unknown

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Jimmy; Zaslavsky, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Presents the developments in microelectronic-related fields, with comprehensive insight from a number of leading industry professionals. The book presents the future developments and innovations in the developing field of microelectronics. The book’s chapters contain contributions from various authors, all of whom are leading industry professionals affiliated either with top universities, major semiconductor companies, or government laboratories, discussing the evolution of their profession. A wide range of microelectronic-related fields are examined, including solid-state electronics, material science, optoelectronics, bioelectronics, and renewable energies. The topics covered range from fundamental physical principles, materials and device technologies, and major new market opportunities.

  13. Future Trends in Computer Graphics: How Much is Enough?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    A.R.Forrest

    2003-01-01

    Over the forty-year history of interactive computer graphics, there have been con-tinuous advances, but at some stage this progression must terminate with images being sufficientlyrealistic for all practical purposes. How much detail do we really need? Polygon counts over a fewmillion imply that on average each polygon paints less than a single pixel, making use of polygonshading hardware wasteful. We consider the problem of determining how much realism is requiredfor a variety of applications. We discuss how current trends in computer graphics hardware, and inparticular of graphics cards targeted at the computer games industry, will help or hinder achieve-ment of these requirements. With images now being so convincingly realistic in many cases, criticalfaculties are often suspended and the images are accepted as correct and truthful although theymay well be incorrect and sometimes misleading or untruthful. Display resolution has remainedlargely constant in spatial terms for the last twenty years and in terms of the number of pixelshas increased by less than an order of magnitude. If the long-promised breakthroughs in displaytechnology are finally realised, how should we use the increased resolution?

  14. Trend and future of radiation processing of polymers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makuuchi, Keizo [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Takasaki, Gunma (Japan). Takasaki Radiation Chemistry Research Establishment

    2000-03-01

    Five Asian countries have been cooperating with Takasaki Radiation Chemistry Research Establishment (TRCRE), Japan, in the field of radiation processing of polymers. The experience of cooperation is summarized. Main processes are polymerization of monomers, cross-linking and degradation of polymers, graft polymerization and curing. The industrial state-of-art of radiation processing in Japan is described. The characteristics of radiation processes are compared with other processes. The future prospect of processing is also described. The growth in cross-linking and degradation are anticipated, whereas graft polymerization and curing are to confront to severe competition with other methods. The possibility of developing new area of radiation processing in Asian counties is pointed out. (A. Yamamoto)

  15. Trends in research and development for future detectors

    CERN Document Server

    Cattai, Ariella

    2013-01-01

    Development of novel detector concepts has always played a major role in supporting and enabling scientific research. In the forthcoming phase of high energy physics (HEP), the design and development of new detectors and detector concepts will be even more important than it was in the past owing to the harsh environmental conditions and the challenging requests imposed by the physicists' needs for: improved spatial and time resolution, innovative functions, acquisition speed, radiation tolerance, minimal power consumption, robustness and reliability, minimal material and more. This overview addresses the challenges that upgrades and future projects in HEP will impose in terms of novel technologies and stresses the detectors' potential and limitations in attempting to achieve the scientific goals. In addition the increasingly strong dependence on large-scale industrial production and industrial development, especially in the area of integrated electronics, sensors and large complex systems will be addressed.

  16. Sample preparation for atomic spectroscopy: evolution and future trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliveira Elisabeth de

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Sample preparation is the critical step of any analytical protocol, and involves steps from simple dilution to partial or total dissolution. The methods include dry or wet decomposition of the samples in open or closed systems, using thermal, ultrasonic or radiant (infrared, ultraviolet and microwaves energy. This review emphasizes sample preparation for atomic spectroscopy. The present and future tendencies for sample preparation also involve on-line dissolution, extraction of the analytes, speciation, solid sample and slurry analysis, in situ and in vivo procedures, etc. Nowadays the goals are the best result, in the shortest time, with minimum contamination, using the smallest quantities of reagents and samples, and having low residue and waste generation, as well as maintaining the integrity of the sample and the traceability of the results, to have quality and confidence in the measurements as the primordial attributes required by the community and by the users.

  17. Exploring the avian gut microbiota: current trends and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waite, David W; Taylor, Michael W

    2015-01-01

    Birds represent a diverse and evolutionarily successful lineage, occupying a wide range of niches throughout the world. Like all vertebrates, avians harbor diverse communities of microorganisms within their guts, which collectively fulfill crucial roles in providing the host with nutrition and protection from pathogens. Across the field of avian microbiology knowledge is extremely uneven, with several species accounting for an overwhelming majority of all microbiological investigations. These include agriculturally important birds, such as chickens and turkeys, as well as birds of evolutionary or conservation interest. In our previous study we attempted the first meta-analysis of the avian gut microbiota, using 16S rRNA gene sequences obtained from a range of publicly available data sets. We have now extended our analysis to explore the microbiology of several key species in detail, to consider the avian microbiota within the context of what is known about other vertebrates, and to identify key areas of interest in avian microbiology for future study.

  18. Meat inspection: an overview of present practices and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, D S; Johnston, A M; Mead, G C

    1997-09-01

    This is a review of meat inspection literature, its history, current concerns and needs for the future. The value and limitations of meat inspection are discussed, along with the possible modifications or changes that are being developed to modernize an increasingly outdated method of safeguarding public health. The potential of on-farm risk assessment of slaughter animals and the practical considerations that need to be overcome are outlined. The needs of the consumer and subsequent challenges to the meat and farming industry are proposed as the driving force behind the changes occurring in veterinary public health. The current risk to consumers, from such microbial pathogens as Salmonella, Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Campylobacter infection, are highlighted.

  19. PWR fuel in Japan; Progress and future trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yokote, Mitsuhiro (Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc., Osaka (Japan)); Kondo, Yoshiaki; Abeta, Sadaaki (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., Tokyo (Japan))

    1994-06-01

    Twenty years ago, in the early years of the Japanese civil nuclear power programme, the fuel used was imported from Westinghouse in the USA. However, it was always intended that there would be a move towards fuel fabrication in Japan and by the end of 1993 around 10,000 Mitsubishi PWR fuel assemblies had been supplied to 21 PWRs in Japan. The highest burnup achieved so far is 46 GWd/t. Design changes to reduce abnormalities have been made, reliability is improving all the time and further improvements in burnup are being developed. This progress in PWR cores and fuel including MOX fuel in Japan is charted and future research and development is outlined. (UK).

  20. The past, current and future trends in DNA vaccine immunisations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sidgi Syed Anwer Abdo Hasson

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This review focuses on DNA vaccines, denoting the last two decades since the early substantiation of preclinical protection was published in Science in 1993 by Ulmer et al. In spite of being safely administered and easily engineered and manufactured DNA vaccine, it holds the future prospects of immunization by inducing potent cellular immune responses against infectious and non-infectious diseases. It is well documented that injection of DNA plasmid encoding a desired gene of interest can result in the subsequent expression of its products and lead to the induction of an immune response within a host. This is pertinent to prophylactic and therapeutic vaccination approach when the peculiar gene produces a protective epitope from a pathogen. The recent studies demonstrated by a number of research centers showed that these immune responses evoke protective immunity against several infectious diseases and cancers, which provides adequate support for the use of this approach. We attempt in this review to provide an informative and unbiased overview of the general principles and concept of DNA vaccines technology with a summary of a novel approach to the DNA vaccine, present investigations that describe the mechanism(s of protective immunity provoked by DNA immunization and to highlight the advantages and disadvantages of DNA immunisation.

  1. Towards a global environmental sociology? Legacies, trends and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lidskog, Rolf; Mol, Arthur Pj; Oosterveer, Peter

    2015-05-01

    A current debate on environmental sociology involves how the subdiscipline should conceptualise and investigate the environment and whether it should be prescriptive and deliver policy recommendations. Taking this debate as a point of departure this article discusses the current and future role of sociology in a globalised world. It discusses how environmental sociology in the US and Europe differ in their understandings of sociology's contribution to the study of the environment. Particular stress is placed on how these two regions differ with respect to their use of the tradition of sociological thought, views on what constitutes the environment and ways of institutionalising environmental sociology as a sociological field. In conclusion, the question is raised of whether current versions of environmental sociology are appropriate for analysing a globalised world environment; or whether environmental sociology's strong roots in European and US cultures make it less relevant when facing an increasingly globalised world. Finally, the article proposes some new rules for a global environmental sociology and describes some of their possible implications for the sociological study of climate change.

  2. A Survey: Recent Advances and Future Trends in Honeypot Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew L. Bringer

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a survey on recent advances in honeypot research from a review of 80+ papers on honeypots and related topics mostly published after year 2005. This paper summarizes 60 papers that had significant contribution to the field. In reviewing the literature, it became apparent that the research can be broken down into five major areas:  new types of honeypots to cope with emergent new security threats,  utilizing honeypot output data to improve the accuracy in threat detections,  configuring honeypots to reduce the cost of maintaining honeypots as well as to improve the accuracy in threat detections,  counteracting honeypot detections by attackers, and  legal and ethical issues in using honeypots. Our literature reviews indicate that the advances in the first four areas reflect the recent changes in our networking environments, such as those in user demography and the ways those diverse users use new applications. Our literature reviews on legal and ethical issues in using honeypots reveals that there has not been widely accepted agreement on the legal and ethical issues about honeypots, which must be an important agenda in future honeypot research.

  3. The past, current and future trends in DNA vaccine immunisations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sidgi; Syed; Anwer; Abdo; Hasson; Juma; Khalifa; Zayid; Al-Busaidi; Talal; Abdulmalek; Sallam

    2015-01-01

    This review focuses on DNA vaccines, denoting the last two decades since the early substantiation of preclinical protection was published in Science in 1993 by Ulmer et al. In spite of being safely administered and easily engineered and manufactured DNA vaccine, it holds the future prospects of immunization by inducing potent cellular immune responses against infectious and non-infectious diseases. It is well documented that injection of DNA plasmid encoding a desired gene of interest can result in the subsequent expression of its products and lead to the induction of an immune response within a host. This is pertinent to prophylactic and therapeutic vaccination approach when the peculiar gene produces a protective epitope from a pathogen. The recent studies demonstrated by a number of research centers showed that these immune responses evoke protective immunity against several infectious diseases and cancers, which provides adequate support for the use of this approach. We attempt in this review to provide an informative and unbiased overview of the general principles and concept of DNA vaccines technology with a summary of a novel approach to the DNA vaccine, present investigations that describe the mechanism(s) of protective immunity provoked by DNA immunization and to highlight the advantages and disadvantages of DNA immunisation.

  4. Exploring the avian gut microbiota: current trends and future directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David William Waite

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Birds represent a diverse and evolutionarily successful lineage, occupying a wide range of niches throughout the world. Like all vertebrates, avians harbour diverse communities of microorganisms within their guts, which collectively fulfil crucial roles in providing the host with nutrition and protection from pathogens. Across the field of avian microbiology knowledge is extremely uneven, with several species accounting for an overwhelming majority of all microbiological investigations. These include agriculturally important birds, such as chickens and turkeys, as well as birds of evolutionary or conservation interest. In our previous study we attempted the first meta-analysis of the avian gut microbiota, using 16S rRNA gene sequences obtained from a range of publicly available data sets. We have now extended our analysis to explore the microbiology of several key species in detail, to consider the avian microbiota within the context of what is known about other vertebrates, and to identify key areas of interest in avian microbiology for future study.

  5. Metabolomics in cancer biomarker discovery: current trends and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armitage, Emily G; Barbas, Coral

    2014-01-01

    Cancer is one of the most devastating human diseases that causes a vast number of mortalities worldwide each year. Cancer research is one of the largest fields in the life sciences and despite many astounding breakthroughs and contributions over the past few decades, there is still a considerable amount to unveil on the function of cancer. It is well known that cancer metabolism differs from that of normal tissue and an important hypothesis published in the 1950s by Otto Warburg proposed that cancer cells rely on anaerobic metabolism as the source for energy, even under physiological oxygen levels. Following this, cancer central carbon metabolism has been researched extensively and beyond respiration, cancer has been found to involve a wide range of metabolic processes, and many more are still to be unveiled. Studying cancer through metabolomics could reveal new biomarkers for cancer that could be useful for its future prognosis, diagnosis and therapy. Metabolomics is becoming an increasingly popular tool in the life sciences since it is a relatively fast and accurate technique that can be applied with either a particular focus or in a global manner to reveal new knowledge about biological systems. There have been many examples of its application to reveal potential biomarkers in different cancers that have employed a range of different analytical platforms. In this review, approaches in metabolomics that have been employed in cancer biomarker discovery are discussed and some of the most noteworthy research in the field is highlighted. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Future trends in cancer therapy with particle accelerators

    CERN Document Server

    Amaldi, Ugo

    2004-01-01

    Hadrontherapy is the radiotherapy technique that uses protons, neutrons or carbon ions. Protons and ions, being, heavy charged particles, allow a more conformal treatment than X-rays and thus spare better the surrounding healthy tissues. By now about 35000 patients have been treated worldwide with protons and about 1600 with carbon ions. Since few years protontherapy of deep-seated tumours is booming with two hospital centres running in USA and three under construction. Four centres are treating patients in Japan. The list of constructions going on elsewhere is long: two in China, one, in Germany, one in Korea, one in Switzerland. But the future hopes for a qualitatively different radiotherapy are centred on carbon ions: they have a larger biological effectiveness than X-rays and protons and are particularly suited to treat radio resistant tumours, as indicated by the encouraging results obtained on about 1400 patients in HIMAC (Chiba, Japan) and on about 200 patients at GSI (Darmstadt). Two carbon centres ar...

  7. Temporal Shape Changes and Future Trends in European Automotive Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corrado Costa

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Evolution produces genuine novelty in morphology through the selection of competing designs as phenotypes. When applied to human creativity, the evolutionary paradigm can provide insight into the ways that our technology and its design are modified through time. The shape of European utilitarian cars in the past 60 years was analyzed in order to determine whether changes occur in a gradual fashion or through saltation, clarifying which are the more conserved and more variable parts of the designs. We also attempted to predict the future appearances of the cars within the next decade, discussing all results within the framework of relevant evolutionary-like equivalences. Here, we analyzed the modification in the shape of European utilitarian cars in the past 60 years by three-dimensional geometric morphometrics to test whether these changes occurred in a gradual or more saltatory fashion. The geometric morphometric shape analysis showed that even though car brands have always been preserving distinct shapes, all followed a gradual pattern of evolution which is now converging toward a more similar fusiform and compact asset. This process was described using Darwinian evolution as a metaphor to quantify and interpret changes over time and the societal pressures promoting them.

  8. Future trends in ophthalmology health human resources in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellan, Lorne

    2016-06-01

    Projections of future Canadian ratios of ophthalmologists to population have fluctuated because of changes in numbers of residency spots and retirement rates. Although this ratio plateaued in recent years, the ratio of ophthalmologists to the population over 65 years of age is projected to steadily deteriorate. All graduating residents are going to be needed to meet the upcoming workload, yet current graduates are finding increasing difficulty obtaining full-time positions with operating room privileges. This problem is affecting all specialties who require hospital facilities, and exploration of this problem by the Royal College, Canadian Medical Association (CMA), Resident Doctors of Canada, and council of the Provincial Deputy Ministers of Health is presented. Proposed solutions to the current job shortages include residents starting in positions outside of major metropolitan areas, clinicians in practice giving up some operating room time to make way for new graduates, government increasing infrastructure commensurate with the increased number of medical school positions, and optimizing use of current resources by running operating rooms for longer hours and on the weekends. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Ophthalmological Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Multidisciplinary management of chronic heart failure: principles and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Patricia M; Newton, Phillip J; Tankumpuan, Thitipong; Paull, G; Dennison-Himmelfarb, Cheryl

    2015-10-01

    Globally, the management of chronic heart failure (CHF) challenges health systems. The high burden of disease and the costs associated with hospitalization adversely affect individuals, families, and society. Improved quality, access, efficiency, and equity of CHF care can be achieved by using multidisciplinary care approaches if there is adherence and fidelity to the program's elements. The goal of this article was to summarize evidence and make recommendations for advancing practice, education, research, and policy in the multidisciplinary management of patients with CHF. Essential elements of multidisciplinary management of CHF were identified from meta-analyses and clinical practice guidelines. The study factors were discussed from the perspective of the health care system, providers, patients, and their caregivers. Identified gaps in evidence were used to identify areas for future focus in CHF multidisciplinary management. Although there is high-level evidence (including several meta-analyses) for the efficacy of management programs for CHF, less evidence exists to determine the benefit attributable to individual program components or to identify the specific content of effective components and the manner of their delivery. Health care system, provider, and patient factors influence health care models and the effective management of CHF and require focus and attention. Extrapolating trial findings to clinical practice settings is limited by the heterogeneity of study populations and the implementation of models of intervention beyond academic health centers, where practice environments differ considerably. Ensuring that individual programs are both developed and assessed that consider these factors is integral to ensuring adherence and fidelity with the core dimensions of disease management necessary to optimize patient and organizational outcomes. Recognizing the complexity of the multidisciplinary CHF interventions will be important in advancing the design

  10. Israel wildfires: future trends, impacts and mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittenberg, Lea

    2017-04-01

    potential risks and management strategic. Moreover, national agencies and local authorities must decide on a range of post-fire measures to mitigate risks quickly since most large fires occur late in summer shortly before the winter season. Possible climate changes, socio-economic trends, and intense land use pressures are contributing factors in a national challenge to deal with forest fires along the WUI. However, in order to support integrated fire preparedness, response, management and recovery at the national, regional and local scales, stronger research and planning effort are required. This includes long-term monitoring programs and a systematic, standardized data acquisition scheme, compiling fire history, landscape-fire spread, mitigation and assessment of the immediate fire effects, land use changes and weather data. Knowledge of both short and long-term impacts of wildfire is essential for effective risk assessment, policy formulation and wildfire management.

  11. Professional Counseling in Kenya: History, Current Status, and Future Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okech, Jane E. Atieno; Kimemia, Muthoni

    2012-01-01

    The authors examine the history and development of the counseling profession in Kenya. This profession is deeply rooted in responses to the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the emergence of mental health needs created by the impact of political and community-based violence, increasing student unrest in public institutions, and government efforts to provide…

  12. Incorporating climate change trends to near future variability of crop yields in Iberia Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capa-Morocho, Mirian; Baethgen, Walter E.; Fernandes, Kátia; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we analyze the effects of near future climate variability on cropping systems in Iberian Peninsula (IP). For this purpose, we generated climate sequences that simulate realistic variability on annual to decadal time scales. The sequences incorporate nonlinear climate change trends, using statistical methods and and an ensemble of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Then, the climate sequences are temporal downscaled into daily weather data and used as inputs to crop models. As case study, we evaluate the impacts of plausible future climate scenarios on rain-fed wheat yield two agricultural locations in IP. We adapted the method by Greene et al., (2012 and 2015) for informing climate projections for the coming decades with a combination of seasonal to interannual and anthropogenically forced climate change information for accounting the Near-term Climate Change. Long-term data containing solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall are needed to apply this method. The climate variability observed was decomposed into long-range trend, decadal and interannual variability to understand the relative importance of each time scale. The interannual variability was modeled based on the observational records. The results of this study may have important implications on public and private sectors to analyze the probabilistic projections of impacts and agronomic adaptations of near future climate variability in Iberian Peninsula. This study has been funded by MACSUR project from FACCE-JPI. References Greene, A.M., Goddard, L., Gonzalez, P.L., Ines, A.V. and Chryssanthacopoulos, J., 2015.A climate generator for agricultural planning in southeastern South America.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 203: 217-228. Greene, A.M., Hellmuth, M. and Lumsden, T., 2012. Stochastic decadal climate simulations for the Berg and Breede water management areas, western Cape province, South Africa. Water Resources

  13. The fractal feature and price trend in the gold future market at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Binghui; Duan, Tingting

    2017-05-01

    The price of gold future is affected by many factors, which include the fluctuation of gold price and the change of trading environment. Fractal analysis can help investors gain better understandings of the price fluctuation and make reasonable investment decisions in the gold future market. After analyzing gold future price from January 2th, 2014 to April 12th, 2016 at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) in China, the conclusion is drawn that the gold future market has sustainability in each trading day, with all Hurst indexes greater than 0.5. The changing features of Hurst index indicate the sustainability of gold future market is strengthened first and weakened then. As a complicatedly nonlinear system, the gold future market can be well reflected by Elman neural network, which is capable of memorizing previous prices and particularly suited for forecasting time series in comparison with other types of neural networks. After analyzing the price trend in the gold future market, the results show that the relative error between the actual value of gold future and the predictive value of Elman neural network is smaller. This model that has a better performance in data fitting and predication, can help investors analyze and foresee the price tendency in the gold future market.

  14. History highlights and future trends of infrared sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corsi, Carlo

    2010-10-01

    ; strategic components for important areas like transport, environment, territory control and security. Infrared history is showing oscillations and variations in raw materials, technology processes and in device design and characteristics. Various technologies oscillating between the two main detection techniques (photon and bolometer effects) have been developed and evaluated as the best ones, depending on the system use as well as expectable performances. Analysis of the 'waving change' in the history of IR sensor technologies is given with the fundamental theory of the various approaches. Highlights of the main historical IR developments and their impact and use in civil and military applications is shown and correlated with the leading technology of silicon microelectronics: scientific and economic comparisons are given and emerging technologies and forecasting of future developments are outlined.

  15. Investment innovation trends: Factor-based investing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Centineo

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This article shows that it can take a long period of time until research knowledge finds its application in practice and get disseminated as innovation trend. Factor-based investing is such an example. Having its developing roots in the nineties, it took more than two decades until this approach was detected by the by investment community. The goal of this article is to recall the definition of factor investing, present its historical evolvement and motivate its recent break-through and current trend among investment practitioners (known also under the notion smart beta. It aims at familiarizing with this investment approach from a practical perspective and highlighting its diversifying benefits in a portfolio context with the potential to outperform the market on risk-adjusted basis.

  16. Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2016-07-15

    Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

  17. Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2016-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

  18. Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2016-07-01

    Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

  19. Lifelong education for older adults in Malta: Current trends and future visions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Formosa, Marvin

    2012-04-01

    With European demographic developments causing a decline of the available workforce in the foreseeable future and the unsustainability of dominant pay-as-you-go pension systems (where contributions from the current workforce sustain pensioners), governments need to come up with strategies to deal with this upcoming challenge and to adjust their policies. Based on a study carried out between September 2009 and May 2010, this article evaluates the policies guiding late-life education in Malta, as well as the local plethora of learning opportunities for older adult education, and participation rates. The Maltese government is committed to supporting the inclusion of older persons (aged 60+) in lifelong education policies and programmes, to the extent that local studies have uncovered a recent rise in the overall participation of older adults in formal, non-formal and informal areas of learning. While the present and future prospects for late-life education in Malta seem promising, a critical scrutiny of present ideologies and trends finds the field to be no more than seductive rhetoric. Though the coordination of late-life education in Malta does result in various social benefits to older learners and Maltese society in general, it also occurs within five intersecting lines of inequality - namely an economic rationale, elitism, gender bias, the urban-rural divide and third ageism. This article ends by proposing policy recommendations for the future of late-life education.

  20. Simulating future trends in hydrological regime of a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruelland, D.; Ardoin-Bardin, S.; Collet, L.; Roucou, P.

    2012-03-01

    SummaryThis paper assesses the future variability of water resources in the short, medium and long terms over a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment in West Africa. Flow simulations were performed with a daily conceptual model. A period of nearly 50 years (1952-2000) was chosen to capture long-term hydro-climatic variability. Calibration and validation were performed on the basis of a multi-objective function that aggregates a variety of goodness-of-fit indices. The climate models HadCM3 and MPI-M under SRES-A2 were used to provide future climate scenarios over the catchment. Outputs from these models were used to generate daily rainfall and temperature series for the 21st century according to: (i) the unbias and delta methods application and (ii) spatial and temporal downscaling. A temperature-based formula was used to calculate present and future potential evapotranspiration (PET). The daily rainfall and PET series were introduced into the calibrated and validated hydrological model to simulate future discharge. The model correctly reproduces the observed discharge at the basin outlet. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion is over 89% for both calibration and validation periods, and the volume error between simulation and observation is close to null for the overall considered period. With regard to future climate, the results show clear trends of reduced rainfall over the catchment. This rainfall deficit, together with a continuing increase in potential evapotranspiration, suggests that runoff from the basin could be substantially reduced, especially in the long term (60-65%), compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. As a result, the long-term hydrological simulations show that the catchment discharge could decrease to the same levels as those observed during the severe drought of the 1980s.

  1. Historical and future trends in wetting and drying in 291 catchments across China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhongwang; Lei, Huimin; Yang, Hanbo; Yang, Dawen; Cao, Yongqiang

    2017-04-01

    An increasingly uneven distribution of hydrometeorological factors related to climate change has been detected by global climate models (GCMs) in which the pattern of changes in water availability is commonly described by the phrase dry gets drier, wet gets wetter (DDWW). However, the DDWW pattern is dominated by oceanic areas; recent studies based on both observed and modelled data have failed to verify the DDWW pattern on land. This study confirms the existence of a new DDWW pattern in China after analysing the observed streamflow data from 291 Chinese catchments from 1956 to 2000, which reveal that the distribution of water resources has become increasingly uneven since the 1950s. This pattern can be more accurately described as drier regions are more likely to become drier, whereas wetter regions are more likely to become wetter. Based on a framework derived from the Budyko hypothesis, this study estimates runoff trends via observations of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) and predicts the future trends from 2001 to 2050 according to the projections of five GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under three scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The results show that this framework has a good performance for estimating runoff trends; such changes in P play the most significant role. Most areas of China, including more than 60 % of catchments, will experience water resource shortages under the projected climate changes. Despite the differences among the predicted results of the different models, the DDWW pattern does not hold in the projections regardless of the model used. Nevertheless, this conclusion remains tentative owing to the large uncertainties in the GCM outputs.

  2. Status and future trends of radiation processing in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lugão, A. B.; Andrade, E.; Silva, L. G.

    1998-06-01

    Electron-beam and gamma irradiation of polymers are widely applied in Brazil today. The main applications are: - radio-induced crosslinking of wire and cable for automobile and appliance industry; - heat shrinkable tubes for appliance, automobile and electronic; - heat shrinkable packing for food processing industry; - sterilization of medical supplies and so on. Nevertheless, there are only a few industrial facilities about 20 years old in full operation at present and there are some new low energy machines for food packing. The reason for such absence of investment in this area was studied and the relation between automobile and appliance production with radiation processing was fully demonstrated for Brazil case. In conclusion, it was shown that the industry of radiation processing of polymers is likely to experience a strong growth based on the continuous increase in the production of automobiles and appliances. The R&D activities of IPEN are an important support for developing the necessary technology and developing the necessary confidence in the radiation as tool for economical and social growth.

  3. Spatially heterogeneous drought analysis theory and future trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Şen, Zekâi

    2014-11-01

    Most often drought analysis methodologies are based on point-wise time series record assessments with very specific local conclusions, but their areal, regional and in general spatial properties are examined to a lesser extent. This paper will provide general description of droughts in addition to the regional methodological approaches with rather simple but innovative manner. The study area is thought as composed of a set of sub-areas each with different dry (wet) period probabilities. In general, heterogeneous region has different probability of dry(wet) spell occurrence at each sub-area. In fact, whenever the probability at each sub-area is not equal to any other sub-area, it corresponds to heterogeneous region. The areal cover probability (ACP) of the region is derived by considering the point-wise probabilities on the assumptions that the occurrences of dry (wet) spells are mutually exclusive, independent with heterogeneous probability patterns. Additionally extreme value probabilities of areal drought coverage are derived for heterogeneous sub-area probabilities. All of the heterogeneous drought probability expressions reduce down to homogeneous case provided that sub-areal probabilities are equal to each other. The methodology presented in this paper paves ways for more realistic drought phenomenon spatial probability of occurrences when the sub-areal dry spell probabilities are dependent on each other but heterogeneous.

  4. Treatment-resistant depression: therapeutic trends, challenges, and future directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Al-Harbi KS

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Khalid Saad Al-HarbiMedical College, King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi ArabiaBackground: Patients with major depression respond to antidepressant treatment, but 10%–30% of them do not improve or show a partial response coupled with functional impairment, poor quality of life, suicide ideation and attempts, self-injurious behavior, and a high relapse rate. The aim of this paper is to review the therapeutic options for treating resistant major depressive disorder, as well as evaluating further therapeutic options.Methods: In addition to Google Scholar and Quertle searches, a PubMed search using key words was conducted, and relevant articles published in English peer-reviewed journals (1990–2011 were retrieved. Only those papers that directly addressed treatment options for treatment-resistant depression were retained for extensive review.Results: Treatment-resistant depression, a complex clinical problem caused by multiple risk factors, is targeted by integrated therapeutic strategies, which include optimization of medications, a combination of antidepressants, switching of antidepressants, and augmentation with non-antidepressants, psychosocial and cultural therapies, and somatic therapies including electroconvulsive therapy, repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation, magnetic seizure therapy, deep brain stimulation, transcranial direct current stimulation, and vagus nerve stimulation. As a corollary, more than a third of patients with treatment-resistant depression tend to achieve remission and the rest continue to suffer from residual symptoms. The latter group of patients needs further study to identify the most effective therapeutic modalities. Newer biomarker-based antidepressants and other drugs, together with non-drug strategies, are on the horizon to address further the multiple complex issues of treatment-resistant depression.Conclusion: Treatment

  5. Juvenile gambling in North America: an analysis of long term trends and future prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, D F

    2000-01-01

    Long term trends, based on findings from twenty independent prevalence studies surveying middle and high school youth in North America, suggest that within the past year two out of three legally underage youth have gambled for money. In the United States and Canada as many as 15.3 million 12-17 year olds have been gambling with or without adult awareness or approval, and 2.2 million of these are experiencing serious gambling-related problems. Lottery play dominates legalized forms of gambling among juveniles in both the United States and Canada. Trends between 1984-1999 indicate a substantial increase in the proportion of juveniles who report gambling within the past year, and a parallel increase in the proportion of juveniles reporting serious gambling-related problems. Yet, there continues to be little public awareness or concern about the extent, or the potential hazards associated with juvenile gambling. A composite profile of juveniles reporting numerous gambling problems is contrasted with their peers who reported few or none. Future prospects concerning this growing problem are offered.

  6. Impact of demographic trends on future development patterns and the loss of open space in the California Mojave Desert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

    2012-02-01

    During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

  7. A Practitioner’s View of the Future of Organization Design: Future Trends and Implications for Royal Dutch Shell

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Steinmetz

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Humanity is facing an increasingly challenging outlook for energy needs and the planet. Royal Dutch Shell is a global group of energy and petrochemicals companies with approximately 100,000 employees in more than 80 countries that is committed to help meet the challenges of the new energy environment in a sustainable and responsible manner. My statement will present some of the future trends and possible implications which can be seen for organization design within Royal Dutch Shell (Shell and which are applicable to other large, complex enterprises. It largely represents the personal views and reflections of a practitioner both inside and outside of Shell’s human resources (HR function in the United States. Using the lens of organization design, we will review the themes that emerged from the Shell Energy 2025 and Shell Energy 2050 global scenarios. Next, we will discuss Shell’s previous experience, challenges, and issues related to organization design, and how the recent redesign of the HR function has provided wider space and crisper focus to meet the challenges of the future. Finally, we will review the design challenges that the future trends impose upon the organization design practice. Although these challenges and implications are derived from experience working in Shell and its joint ventures, they are not confined solely to Shell. Because many of the challenges discussed below would benefit from scholarly research, the statement represents a practitioner’s view on how the future of organization design may play out.

  8. Educational Technology Use in Distance Education: Historical Review and Future Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Robert A.

    1988-01-01

    Examines the potential for using educational technology in distance education in developing countries as well as in established programs. The British Open University is discussed, and technology described includes television, cable, videodisc, satellites, teletext, videotext, computers, and radio. Future trends in the field are also discussed. (15…

  9. Two Views of Criminology and Criminal Justice: Definitions, Trends, and the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conrad, John P.; Myren, Richard A.

    The question of whether criminology and criminal justice are distinct fields is addressed in two papers. Differences between criminology and criminal justice are delineated by emphasizing formal definitions of the field(s), occupational roles, contemporary educational trends, and future development. According to John P. Conrad, criminology is the…

  10. A Delphi Investigation into Future Trends in E-Learning in Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aharony, Noa; Bronstein, Jenny

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the views and opinions of e-learning experts regarding future trends in the e-learning arena. The Delphi technique was chosen as a method of study. This technique is an efficient and effective group communication process designed to systematically elicit judgments from experts in their selected area of…

  11. Underwater Acoustic Wireless Sensor Networks: Advances and Future Trends in Physical, MAC and Routing Layers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Climent, S.; Sanchez, A.; Capella, J.V.; Meratnia, N.; Serrano, J.J.

    2014-01-01

    This survey aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the current research on underwater wireless sensor networks, focusing on the lower layers of the communication stack, and envisions future trends and challenges. It analyzes the current state-of-the-art on the physical, medium access control an

  12. Nutrient export by rivers to the coastal waters of China: management strategies and future trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Qu, Hong Juan; Kroeze, C.

    2012-01-01

    We analyzed past and future trends in river export of dissolved nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the coastal waters of China, for a selection of rivers, as calculated by the Global NEWS models (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds). Over the period 1970–2000, river export of dissolved nutrients

  13. Two Views of Criminology and Criminal Justice: Definitions, Trends, and the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conrad, John P.; Myren, Richard A.

    The question of whether criminology and criminal justice are distinct fields is addressed in two papers. Differences between criminology and criminal justice are delineated by emphasizing formal definitions of the field(s), occupational roles, contemporary educational trends, and future development. According to John P. Conrad, criminology is the…

  14. Fertility rates and future population trends: will Europe's birth rate recover or continue to decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang

    2006-02-01

    Europe has long completed its demographic transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. But the demographic transition paradigm that has been very useful for explaining global demographic trends during the 20th century and that still has strong predictive power when it comes to projecting future trends in countries that still have high fertility, has nothing to say about the future of fertility in Europe. The currently popular notion of a 'second demographic transition' is a useful way to describe a bundle of behavioural and normative changes that recently happened in Europe, but it has no predictive power. The social sciences have not yet come up with a useful theory to predict the future fertility level of post-demographic transition societies. We even do not know whether the trend will be up or down. Given the lack of a predictive theory, this paper will try to do two things: (i) Summarize different substantive arguments that would either suggest the assumption of a recovery of fertility rates in Europe or alternatively, imply further declines. (ii) Convert this discussion of the uncertainty of future fertility trends into probabilistic population projections for Europe, thus highlighting the implications of alternative fertility levels over the coming years. We will also discuss trade-offs between fertility and immigration, and the phenomenon that Europe now has entered a period of negative momentum of population growth.

  15. Past and Future Trends in Nutrient Export by Nineteen Rivers to the Coastal Waters of Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suwarno, A.; Löhr, A.; Kroeze, C.; Widianarko, B.

    2013-01-01

    This article analyzes past and future trends in nutrient export of dissolved and particulate nitrogen and phosphorus by rivers into the coastal waters of Indonesia. The focus is on 19 rivers included in the Global Nutrients Export from WaterSheds model. In the past, export of dissolved inorganic nit

  16. The Present State and Future Trends of Blended Learning in Workplace Learning Settings across Five Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyong-Jee; Bonk, Curtis; Teng, Ya-Ting

    2009-01-01

    This article reports survey findings related to the current status and future trends of blended learning in workplace learning settings from diverse cultures. This particular survey was conducted of 674 training and human resource development professionals from five different countries, mostly from the Asia-Pacific region (i.e., China, South…

  17. Nutrient export by rivers to the coastal waters of China: management strategies and future trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Qu, Hong Juan; Kroeze, C.

    2012-01-01

    We analyzed past and future trends in river export of dissolved nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the coastal waters of China, for a selection of rivers, as calculated by the Global NEWS models (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds). Over the period 1970–2000, river export of dissolved nutrients increas

  18. Historical Review of Electric Household Appliances using Induction-Heating and Future Challenging Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirota, Izuo; Yamashita, Hidekazu; Omori, Hideki; Nakaoka, Mutsuo

    This paper presents historical progress on technology evolution of the electric and electronic household appliances using the inverter, especially for Induction-Heating applications, which have been put in practical use as the desk-top cooker for the first time at home in 1974 until being applied to the rice cooker and the multi-burner cooking heater. It also describes the future innovative evolution of the power semiconductor switching devices and the inverter circuit topologies supporting its progressive developments. Looking back its progress, the future trends on consumer power electronics is discussed on the practical problem in the future.

  19. FURTHER CONSIDERATIONS ON SPREADSHEET-BASED AUTOMATIC TREND LINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANIEL HOMOCIANU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Most of the nowadays business applications working with data sets allow exports to the spreadsheet format. This fact is related to the experience of common business users with such products and to the possibility to couple what they have with something containing many models, functions and possibilities to process and represent data, by that getting something in dynamics and much more than a simple static less useful report. The purpose of Business Intelligence is to identify clusters, profiles, association rules, decision trees and many other patterns or even behaviours, but also to generate alerts for exceptions, determine trends and make predictions about the future based on historical data. In this context, the paper shows some practical results obtained after testing both the automatic creation of scatter charts and trend lines corresponding to the user’s preferences and the automatic suggesting of the most appropriate trend for the tested data mostly based on the statistical measure of how close they are to the regression function.

  20. English for Scientific Purposes (EScP): Technology, Trends, and Future Challenges for Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Gi-Zen; Chiu, Wan-Yu; Lin, Chih-Chung; Barrett, Neil E.

    2014-12-01

    To date, the concept of English for Specific Purposes has brought about a great impact on English language learning across various disciplines, including those in science education. Hence, this review paper aimed to address current English language learning in the science disciplines through the practice of computer-assisted language learning to identify the use of learning technologies in science-based literacy. In the literature review, the researchers found that science-based literacy instruction shares many pedagogical aims with English language teaching in terms of reading, writing, listening and speaking, allowing it to be classified as English for Scientific Purposes (EScP). To answer the research questions, the researchers conducted the survey by extracting related articles and teaching examples from the Web of Science. In the search procedure, the researchers used the keywords science OR scientific AND technolog* OR comput* in ten selected journals of social science citation index. Only articles which are specified as journal articles rather than other document types were included. After compiling the corpora, the researchers compared the trends, methodologies and results of EScP instruction in science education. The implications of this study include the opportunities, advantages and challenges for EScP instruction in science education to further develop better educational approaches, adopt new technologies, as well as offer some directions for researchers to conduct future studies.

  1. Global Survey on Future Trends in Human Spaceflight: the Implications for Space Tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurtuna, O.; Garneau, S.

    2002-01-01

    With the much-publicized first ever space tourist flight, of Dennis Tito, and the announcement of the second space tourist flight to take place in April 2002, it is clear that an alternative motivation for human spaceflight has emerged. Human spaceflight is no longer only about meeting the priorities of national governments and space agencies, but is also about the tangible possibility of ordinary people seeing the Earth from a previously exclusive vantage point. It is imperative that major space players look beyond the existing human spaceflight rationale to identify some of the major driving forces behind space tourism, including the evolving market potential and developments in enabling technologies. In order to determine the influence of these forces on the future of commercial human spaceflight, the responses of a Futuraspace survey on future trends in human spaceflight are analyzed and presented. The motivation of this study is to identify sought-after space destinations, explore the expected trends in enabling technologies, and understand the future role of emerging space players. The survey will reflect the opinions of respondents from around the world including North America, Europe (including Russia) and Asia. The profiles of targeted respondents from space industry, government and academia are high-level executives/managers, senior researchers, as well as former and current astronauts. The survey instrument is a questionnaire which is validated by a pilot study. The sampling method is non-probabilistic, targeting as many space experts as possible who fit our intended respondent profile. Descriptive and comparative statistical analysis methods are implemented to investigate both global and regional perceptions of future commercial trends in human spaceflight. This study is not intended to be a formal market study of the potential viability of the space tourism market. Instead, the focus is on the future trends of human spaceflight, by drawing on the

  2. Sugar beet growth in a changing climate: past, present and future trends in southwest Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremer, Pascal; Fuchs, Hans-Joachim; Lang, Christian

    2017-04-01

    In the study, single factors and their impact on sugar beet cultivation against the background of past and projected climate change are being analyzed. The database consists of climate data by the German Weather Service and 1x1 km interpolated INTERMET raster data. Impact models were run to assess possible future trends using climate projection data of the REgional MOdel (REMO), emission scenario A1B, Run 1, data stream 2 for Germany, daily resolution, without bias correction, 10x10 km raster (n=150) (MPI on behalf of UBA 2006). Compared periods were: B:1971 2000; K:2021-2050; L:2071-2100. Agronomic data were collected from the field books of regional trials from 1974 2014 (n=448). Moreover, a business survey of regional farmers was carried out and evaluated. Impact models to predict timing for sowing, the date of field emergence and row closure, were derived from these data. The ontogenesis was simulated using a linear, temperature-based leaf-growth model. Sowing shifted forward by 7,3 days in regional field trials from 1974 2014. Progress-oriented, risk-tolerant farmers start sowing 10-14 days earlier compared to 1980. Recently, sowing is being conducted on average on 21 March in southwest Germany. For period K, 17 March, and for period L, 2 March is being projected as the average future sowing date while the same late frost risk applies compared to present climatic conditions. Shifting forward the sowing date with spring warming and, thus, exploiting the associated yield potential is the most promising agronomic adaptation strategy to the projected climate change on the farm level. In connection to earlier sowing, the field emergence tendentially shifted forward by 14 days in the field trials. Assuming sowing on 15 March, projection results show an advance of field emergence form 7 April in period B to 3 April in period L. Row closure in field trials in average shifted forward by 19,6 days. For period L, 29 May and thus, an earlier row closure of 9 days compared

  3. Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqi Li

    Full Text Available In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1 Prediction of the age distribution of a country's population based on an "age-structured population model"; 2 Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an "individual household size model"; and 3 Estimation the number of each household size based on a "total household size model". The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country's population (obtained in stage 1 onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables.

  4. Climate change and plankton phenology in freshwater: current trends and future commitments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Csaba Vadadi-Fülöp

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A solid body of empirical, experimental and theoretical evidence accumulated over recent years indicated that freshwater plankton experienced advance in phenology in response to climate change. Despite rapidly growing evidence for phenological changes, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how climate change alters plankton phenology in freshwater. To overcome current limitations, we need to shed some light on trends and constraints in current research. The goal of this study is to identify current trends and gaps based on analysis of selected papers, by the help of which we can facilitate further advance in the field. We searched the literature for plankton phenology and confined our search to studies where climate change has been proposed to alter plankton phenology and rates of changes were quantified. We did not restrict our search for empirical contributions; experimental and theoretical studies were considered as well. In the following we discuss the spatio-temporal setting of selected studies, contributions of different taxonomic groups, emerging methodological constraints, measures of phenological trends; and finally give a list of recommendations on how to improve our understanding in the field. The majority of studies were confined to deep lakes with a skewed geographical distribution toward Central Europe, where scientists have long been engaged in limnology. Despite these findings, recent studies suggest that plankton in running waters may experience change in phenology with similar magnitude. Average rate of advancement in phenology of freshwater plankton exceeded those of the marine plankton and the global average. Increasing study duration was not coupled either with increasing contribution of discontinuous data or with increasing rates of phenological changes. Future studies may benefit from i delivering longterm data across scientific and political boundaries; ii extending study sites to broader geographical areas with

  5. Interannual variation, decadal trend, and future change in ozone outflow from East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jia; Liao, Hong; Mao, Yuhao; Yang, Yang; Jiang, Hui

    2017-03-01

    We examine the past and future changes in the O3 outflow from East Asia using a global 3-D chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem. The simulations of Asian O3 outflow for 1986-2006 are driven by the assimilated GEOS-4 meteorological fields, and those for 2000-2050 are driven by the meteorological fields archived by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 3 under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The evaluation of the model results against measurements shows that the GEOS-Chem model captures the seasonal cycles and interannual variations of tropospheric O3 concentrations fairly well with high correlation coefficients of 0.82-0.93 at four ground-based sites and 0.55-0.88 at two ozonesonde sites where observations are available. The increasing trends in surface-layer O3 concentrations in East Asia over the past 2 decades are captured by the model, although the modeled O3 trends have low biases. Sensitivity studies are conducted to examine the respective impacts of meteorological parameters and emissions on the variations in the outflow flux of O3. When both meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions varied from 1986-2006, the simulated Asian O3 outflow fluxes exhibited a statistically insignificant decadal trend; however, they showed large interannual variations (IAVs) with seasonal values of 4-9 % for the absolute percent departure from the mean (APDM) and an annual APDM value of 3.3 %. The sensitivity simulations indicated that the large IAVs in O3 outflow fluxes were mainly caused by variations in the meteorological conditions. The variations in meteorological parameters drove the IAVs in O3 outflow fluxes by altering the O3 concentrations over East Asia and by altering the zonal winds; the latter was identified to be the key factor, since the O3 outflow was highly correlated with zonal winds from 1986-2006. The simulations of the 2000-2050 changes show that the annual outflow flux of O3 will increase by 2.0, 7.9, and

  6. Present status and future trends in the development of thermoluminescent materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Azorin N, J., E-mail: azorin@xanum.uam.mx [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Unidad Iztapalapa, Departamento de Fisica, Av. San Rafael Atlixco 186, Col. Vicentina, 09340 Mexico City (Mexico)

    2015-10-15

    Full text: There is a continuous growing interest in developing materials for Tl radiation dosimetry, especially in the fields of medical, environmental and personal applications. Although several phosphors are being used in these fields today, many efforts are being made in order to develop new Tl materials, having better tissue equivalence, and increased sensitivity to gamma radiation, high energy photons, electrons, neutrons and heavy ions. Different preparation methods and properties of several Tl materials have been studied so far and it is found that many of these materials constitute a class of Tl phosphors with good performances, especially when they are doped with suitable activators. Most widely used and extensively studied materials for Tl dosimetry (TLD) are fluorides, sulfates, borates and sulfides of alkali and alkaline earth elements. Besides these, have been developed other phosphors based on metal oxides and mixtures of metal oxides, halo sulfates and different kinds of glasses and perovskites. In this paper, a review of the status and future trends in the development of Tl materials is presented. (Author)

  7. Historical review and future trends of scanning optical systems for laser-beam printers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minoura, Kazuo

    1993-12-01

    Flying spot scanning technologies providing a constant velocity were presented in 1963 and in 1969, although the concept of `f-0' was not yet explained definitely. After the middle of the 1970s, laser diodes became worthy of notice and a compact-sized laser beam printer was developed. Along with that development, the `f-0 lens' was defined based on the optical design theory in 1979 and also popular-type `f-0 lenses' were developed through the analytical design method. On the other hand, the author and colleagues worked out the best way of enabling metal light deflectors to apply in a popular-type system in 1984; which means the optical system of `deflection error compensation' with the simple composition including a toric lens. The epoch-making optical system raised the productivity of laser beam printers and also has been providing high-definition image printing. As for recent trends, low-priced and compact- sized printers are expanding their share of the market. The author predicts that future laser scanning technologies will be focused in low-priced and process-simplified printers looking closely into high-definition image quality.

  8. The distribution of pharmaceuticals in Europe--current and future trends in wholesaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, F

    1994-03-01

    As of January 1, 1993 a huge market, encompassing more than 325 million people, has been established with the unification of the 12 member states in the European Community. During the last 10 years, the pharmaceutical wholesaling sector has therefore been involved in an intense restructuring process. But, there is a considerable scientific gap in the knowledge of pharmaceutical wholesaling. In view of the uncertain situation and the scarcity of structured information, the purpose of this article is to examine current and future trends in the European pharmaceutical wholesaling sector. We reviewed the literature and identified three major areas of interest; general threats to traditional full-line wholesaling, wholesalers' response to these threats, and the new Glaxo distribution scheme. The current and expected importance of these areas were assessed with the help of a survey, encompassing 20 experts in this field. Based on the review and the survey, we conclude that there are many serious threats to traditional wholesaling, the major ones being governmental pressures to lower the already relatively low gross margins, manufacturers contemplating taking over the drug distribution process themselves and increasing international competition. The major responses to these threats are to become a truly international player (via mergers, acquisitions and joint ventures), or being able to provide the customers with detailed management information through computerised networks. In order to survive the next 5-10 years, companies have to be very alert to the changing competitive situation.

  9. Underwater Acoustic Wireless Sensor Networks: Advances and Future Trends in Physical, MAC and Routing Layers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Climent

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This survey aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the current researchon underwater wireless sensor networks, focusing on the lower layers of the communicationstack, and envisions future trends and challenges. It analyzes the current state-of-the-art onthe physical, medium access control and routing layers. It summarizes their security threadsand surveys the currently proposed studies. Current envisioned niches for further advances inunderwater networks research range from efficient, low-power algorithms and

  10. What's it worth? An examination of historical trends and future directions in environmental valuation

    OpenAIRE

    Adamowicz, Wiktor L.

    2004-01-01

    The present paper reviews activity in environmental valuation by examining trends in publication rates over the past three decades. It also provides an overview of the demand for environmental valuation by academic markets and by policy markets. The results of this historical analysis suggest that there is not as much use of environmental valuation in policy analysis as could be expected given the academic efforts on this topic. The paper also provides an overview of the future directions tha...

  11. Where people die (1974--2030): past trends, future projections and implications for care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Barbara; Higginson, Irene J

    2008-01-01

    Ageing nations have growing needs for end of life care, but these have never been projected in detail. We analysed past trends in place of death (1974-2003) and projected likely trends to 2030 in England and Wales and from these need for care. Mortality trends and forecasts were obtained from official statistics. Future scenarios were modelled using recent five-year trends in age and gender specific home death proportions to estimate numbers of deaths by place to 2030, accounting for future changes in the age and gender distribution of deaths. Annual numbers of deaths fell by 8% from 1974 to 2003, but are expected to rise by 17% from 2012 to 2030. People will die increasingly at older ages, with the percentage of deaths among those aged 85 and expected to rise from 32% in 2003 to 44% in 2030. Home death proportions fell from 31% to 18% overall, and at an even higher rate for people aged 65 and over, women and noncancer deaths. If recent trends continue, numbers of home deaths could reduce by 42% and fewer than 1 in 10 will die at home in 2030. Annual numbers of institutional deaths (currently 440,936) will be 530,409 by 2030 (20% increase). In England and Wales home deaths have been decreasing. The projections underline the urgent need for planning care to accommodate a large increase of ageing and deaths. Either inpatient facilities must increase substantially, or many more people will need community end of life care from 2012 onwards.

  12. Prediction Research of Climate Change Trends over North China in the Future 30 Years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Yanxiang; YAN Jinghui; WU Tongwen; GUO Yufu; CHEN Lihua; WANG Jianping

    2008-01-01

    A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model), developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). In order to validate the model,the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980sfor the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold (1950-1976) and warm (1977-2000)periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations (significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level). The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China's Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario.The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5℃ relative to climate mean (1960-1990). Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation.

  13. Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy for depression: trends and developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MacKenzie MB

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Meagan B MacKenzie,1 Nancy L Kocovski21Department of Psychology, Ryerson University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Department of Psychology, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, ON, CanadaAbstract: Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT was developed as a psychological intervention for individuals at risk of depressive relapse. Possible mechanisms of change for this intervention are in line with its theoretical underpinnings, and include increases in mindfulness and/or decreases in negative repetitive thoughts. This review provides an overview of current trends in MBCT research, including efficacy and questions regarding the specific effects of MBCT in light of recent comparisons with structurally equivalent control conditions, mechanisms of change, and moderators of treatment outcome. In addition, future directions are discussed, such as challenges with training an adequate number of therapists and disseminating this therapy.Keywords: MBCT, efficacy, mechanisms of change, dissemination, moderators

  14. Trends and Possible Future Developments in Global Forest-Product Markets—Implications for the Swedish Forest Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ragnar Jonsson

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes trends and possible future developments in global wood-product markets and discusses implications for the Swedish forest sector. Four possible futures, or scenarios, are considered, based on qualitative scenario analysis. The scenarios are distinguished principally by divergent futures with respect to two highly influential factors driving change in global wood-product markets, whose future development is unpredictable. These so-called critical uncertainties were found to be degrees to which: (i current patterns of globalization will continue, or be replaced by regionalism, and (ii concern about the environment, particularly climate change, related policy initiatives and customer preferences, will materialize. The overall future of the Swedish solid wood-product industry looks bright, irrespective of which of the four possible futures occurs, provided it accommodates the expected growth in demand for factory-made, energy-efficient construction components. The prospects for the pulp and paper industry in Sweden appear more ambiguous. Globalization is increasingly shifting production and consumption to the Southern hemisphere, adversely affecting employment and forest owners in Sweden. Further, technical progress in information and communication technology (ICT is expected to lead to drastic reductions in demand for newsprint and printing paper. Chemical pulp producers may profit from a growing bio-energy industry, since they could manufacture new, high-value products in integrated bio-refineries. Mechanical pulp producers cannot do this, however, and might suffer from higher prices for raw materials and electricity.

  15. ENDF/B-VII.1 library - current and future trends in reaction data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Michal

    2011-10-01

    The ENDF/B-VII.0 library, made available in December 2006, has been the first major release of the US nuclear reaction data library in 16 years. Intensive validation proved generally good performance of the library but a number of deficiencies were discerned. In 2008 CSEWG decided to undertake multi-laboratory effort leading to VII.1 version, which is scheduled for release in December 2011. Highlights of the new library include (i) a consistent set of covariance data, for over 180 materials, targeting explicit needs of the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative, (ii) new R-matrix based evaluations for several light nuclei, (iii) evaluations for reactions on structural materials in both the fast neutron region and the resonance region, (iv) improvements of resonances regions and thermal cross sections for certain fission products and neutron absorber materials (Cd, Gd), (v) improvements in minor actinide evaluations for isotopes of U, Np, Pu, and Am, (vi) adoption of JENDL4.0 evaluations for the Cm, Bk, Cf, Es, Fm, and some other minor actinides, (vii) fission product yield advances for fission-spectrum neutrons and 14 MeV neutrons incident on 239Pu, and (viii) a new Decay Data sub-library. No significant changes are expected for the major actinides 235,8U and 239Pu, except reverting delayed neutron data to ENDF/B-VI.8 and adding covariances. Current update concerns only the most important neutron, fission yields, and decay data sub-libraries leaving the remaining 11 sub-libraries unchanged. Open issues and trends for the future releases of the ENDF/B will be discussed.

  16. Grade 4 renal injury: current trend of management and future directions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yiu Ming Ho; Michael Schuetz

    2011-01-01

    The management of blunt renal trauma has been evolving. The past management largely based on American Association for Surgery of Trauma (AAST) grading system, i.e. necessitated a computed tomography (CT)scan. Although the CT scan use is increasing and becomes the standardized mode of investigation, AAST grading no longer plays the sole role in the decision of surgical interventions. Two case reports of blunt renal trauma managed successfully by conservative methods are presented.Case one was an 18 year-old boy who had a fall when riding a motorbike at 20 km/h with a helmet and full protective equipments. He was landed by his left flank onto a rock.Contrast abdominal CT revealed a 4 em, grade Ⅲ splenic tear and a grade Ⅳ left kidney injury with large perirenal haematoma. His international severity score (ISS) was 34.He was managed conservatively with bed rest and frequent serum haemoglobin monitoring. Subsequent CT with delayed contrast revealed stable perirenal haematoma with urine extravasation which was consistent with a grade Ⅳ renal injury. Case two was a 40 year-old male who had a motor bike accident on a racetrack when he was driving at 80 to 100 km/h, wearing a helmet. He lost control and hit onto the sidewall of the racetrack. Contrast abdominal CT revealed a grade Ⅳ left renal injury with a large urine extravasation. His renal injury was managed conservatively with interval delayed phase CT of the abdomen. A repeat CT on abdomen was performed five months after the initial injury which revealed no residual urinoma.In this study, moreover, a review of the literature to the management of blunt renal trauma was conducted to demonstrate the trend of increasing conservative management of such traumas. Extra radiological parameters may guide future decision making. However, the applicability of data may be limited until randomized trials are available.

  17. Electronic Journals in the Digital Environment:Issues and Future Trends

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jian Wang; Arthur Hendricks

    2004-01-01

    Building and managing electronic journal collections in the digital environment poses many challenges for librarians, as electronic journals exist in a complex and constantly changing state involving different digital formats, new pricing structures, and various access routes. This paper reviews critical issues that North American libraries face in managing electronic journals, including a brief history, the selection criteria, consortia purchasing, licensing, operational costs, providing access, user support, usage statistics,canceling print subscriptions, and electronic journal archives. Future trends discussed include open access e-journals, and the continuing development of e-journal collections and best practices in managing this essential constituent of academic library collections.

  18. Underwater acoustic wireless sensor networks: advances and future trends in physical, MAC and routing layers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climent, Salvador; Sanchez, Antonio; Capella, Juan Vicente; Meratnia, Nirvana; Serrano, Juan Jose

    2014-01-01

    This survey aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the current research on underwater wireless sensor networks, focusing on the lower layers of the communication stack, and envisions future trends and challenges. It analyzes the current state-of-the-art on the physical, medium access control and routing layers. It summarizes their security threads and surveys the currently proposed studies. Current envisioned niches for further advances in underwater networks research range from efficient, low-power algorithms and modulations to intelligent, energy-aware routing and medium access control protocols.

  19. Surgical videos online: a survey of prominent sources and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinscore, Amanda; Andres, Amy

    2010-01-01

    This article determines the extent of the online availability and quality of surgical videos for the educational benefit of the surgical community. A comprehensive survey was performed that compared a number of online sites providing surgical videos according to their content, production quality, authority, audience, navigability, and other features. Methods for evaluating video content are discussed as well as possible future directions and emerging trends. Surgical videos are a valuable tool for demonstrating and teaching surgical technique and, despite room for growth in this area, advances in streaming video technology have made providing and accessing these resources easier than ever before.

  20. Econophysics: A Brief Review of Historical Development, Present Status and Future Trends

    CERN Document Server

    Sharma, B G; Sharma, Malti; Bisen, D P; Sharma, Ravi

    2011-01-01

    The conventional economic approaches explore very little about the dynamics of the economic systems. Since such systems consist of a large number of agents interacting nonlinearly they exhibit the properties of a complex system. Therefore the tools of statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics has been proved to be very useful the underlying dynamics of the system. In this paper we introduce the concept of the multidisciplinary field of econophysics, a neologism that denotes the activities of Physicists who are working on economic problems to test a variety of new conceptual approaches deriving from the physical science and review the recent developments in the discipline and possible future trends.

  1. Past and future trends of radiation research. Proceedings of the Seminar at STUK in Helsinki, 28th February 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindell, B. [Swedish Radiation Protection Inst., Stockholm (Sweden); Boice, J.D. Jr.; Sinnaeve, J. [European Commission Directorate General Science, Brussels (Belgium). Research and Development, Radiation Protection Research Action; Rytoemaa, T. [Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety, Helsinki (Finland)

    1997-09-01

    The main topics of the seminar were: (1) Historical review of radiation research, (2) Radiation epidemiology in risk assessment, (3) Radiation research within the framework programmes of the European Commission, and (4) Future trends in radiobiology.

  2. Future Trends in Nutrient Export to the Coastal Waters of South America: Implications for Occurrence of Eutrophication

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Struijk, F.; Kroeze, C.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze future trends in nutrient export to the coastal waters of South America, with a special focus on the causes of nutrient export and their potential effects. Nutrient Export from Watersheds (NEWS) model results for South America are presented, including trends in human activities and the as

  3. Wind Turbine Condition Monitoring: State-of-the-Art Review, New Trends, and Future Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Tchakoua

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available As the demand for wind energy continues to grow at exponential rates, reducing operation and maintenance (OM costs and improving reliability have become top priorities in wind turbine (WT maintenance strategies. In addition to the development of more highly evolved WT designs intended to improve availability, the application of reliable and cost-effective condition-monitoring (CM techniques offers an efficient approach to achieve this goal. This paper provides a general review and classification of wind turbine condition monitoring (WTCM methods and techniques with a focus on trends and future challenges. After highlighting the relevant CM, diagnosis, and maintenance analysis, this work outlines the relationship between these concepts and related theories, and examines new trends and future challenges in the WTCM industry. Interesting insights from this research are used to point out strengths and weaknesses in today’s WTCM industry and define research priorities needed for the industry to meet the challenges in wind industry technological evolution and market growth.

  4. Future trend of extreme value distributions of wintertime surface air temperatures over Korea and the associated physical changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kwang-Yul; Kim, Ji-Won; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Cho, Chun-Ho

    2013-11-01

    Daily winter temperatures in Korea have been analyzed via CSEOF analysis. Then, each PC time series was detrended and was fitted to an AR (autoregressive) model. Based on the identified AR model, an artificial time series of arbitrary length can be generated by using an arbitrary white-noise time series. In this way, one hundred new sets of PC time series were generated over the period of 1973-2058. Then, the trend for each PC time series was added back to the artificial PC time series extending the trend until 2058. Ultimately, artificial daily winter temperatures in Korea have been constructed by using the artificial PC time series and the original loading vectors derived from the observational data. The 100 new data sets have been investigated in order to understand the winter temperature variability 50 years into the future. Regression analysis in CSEOF space shows that temperature increase in Korea is associated with increased 850-hPa air temperature over most of the Asian domain (97°-153°E × 22°-73°N) and increased 850-hPa geopotential height in the southern part of the domain. As a result, southerly and southeasterly wind anomalies develop carrying positive temperature anomalies northward and northwestward. Both the 200-hPa air temperature and geopotential height changes indicate that there will be fairly significant northward shift of the jet stream in future. The standard deviation of the 200-hPa potential vorticity increases implying that shortwave trough and henceforth baroclinic instability will increase in future. Finally, GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) distribution and GPD (Generalized Pareto distribution) distribution have been compared between the observational records and the future records of the same length. The extreme value distributions based on the synthetic datasets show that warm extreme events will be more extreme in future and cold extreme events, on the other hand, will be less extreme. This study provides an estimate of future

  5. Trends

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Shanghai Mode Lingerie continually strives to underline its status as a veritable reference on the fashion scene: an opportunity to explore trends, interpret key directions and gain an in-depth overview of lines to follow.

  6. Brewer–Dobson Circulation: Recent-Past and Near-Future Trends Simulated by Chemistry-Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dingzhu Hu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on data from 16 chemistry-climate models (CCMs and separate experimental results using a state-of-the-art CCM, the trends in the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC during the second half of the 20th century (1960–2000 and the first half of the 21st century (2001–2050 are examined. From the ensemble mean of the CCMs, the BDC exhibits strengthening trends in both the 20th and 21st centuries; however, the acceleration rates of tropical upwelling and southern downwelling during 2001–2050 are smaller than those during 1960–2000, while the acceleration rate of the northern downward branch of the BDC during 2001–2050 is slightly larger than that during 1960–2000. The differences in the extratropical downwelling trends between the two periods are closely related to changes in planetary-wave propagation into the stratosphere caused by the combined effects of increases in the concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs and changes in stratospheric ozone. Model simulations demonstrate that the response of southern downwelling to stratospheric ozone depletion is larger than that to the increase in GHGs, but that the latter plays a more important role in the strengthening of northern downwelling. This result suggests that, under the expected future climate, northern downwelling will play a more important role in balancing tropical upwelling.

  7. Constructed wetlands, 1991-2011: a review of research development, current trends, and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhi, Wei; Ji, Guodong

    2012-12-15

    This study explores a bibliometric approach to quantitatively evaluate global scientific constructed wetlands research, and statistically assess current trends, and future directions using the Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) database from 1991 to 2011. Articles referencing constructed wetlands were analyzed by accessing the following: publication language, output characteristics, publication performance by country and institution, author keywords, title words, and KeyWords Plus. Synthetically analyzing three keyword types, we concluded that the dominant constructed wetlands research hotspots from 1991 to 2011 included water, nutrients, plants, and flow. These four hotspots remained the most dominant research areas throughout our study period, and are predicted to remain the top research emphases in the near future. "Soil" also exhibited a notable increase since 2005, and is likely to become another notable area of research interest in the future. "Phytoremediation" and "horizontal" were not identified in 1991-1995, but exhibited marked increases from 136th (0.5%) and 169th (0.7%) in 1996-2000, to 9th (3.8%) and 11th (4.3%) in 2006-2011, respectively. Therefore, given the heightened attention during the last 15 years, these topics are likely to become a primary research focus in upcoming years.

  8. Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang; K C, Samir

    2010-09-27

    The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8-10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.

  9. FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hong-Hu; Shi, Bin; Zhang, Cheng-Cheng

    2017-02-24

    In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG), as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented.

  10. FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Hu Zhu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG, as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented.

  11. Past and future trends in grey water footprints of anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to major world rivers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, C.; Kroeze, C.; Hoekstra, A.Y.; Gerbens-Leenes, W.

    2012-01-01

    The grey water footprint (GWF) is an indicator of aquatic pollution. We calculate past and future trends in GWFs related to anthropogenic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs into major rivers around the world. GWFs were calculated from past, current and future nutrient loads in river basins using

  12. Telemedicine in Egypt: SWOT analysis and future trends [Telemedizin in Ägypten: SWOT-Analyse und Zukunftstrends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalifa, Aly

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available [english] Today, many countries have succeeded in integrating telemedicine and advanced technologies into a broad-range of healthcare processes including diagnosis, treatment, disease prevention, and health education & research. Nevertheless, many developing countries are still unable to sustain meaningful telemedicine projects. Egypt has achieved significant progress in building the Information Society (IS, by providing an enabling legal and regulatory framework, and an adequate Information and Communications Technology (ICT infrastructure. However, telemedicine projects in Egypt still face common problems and challenges that hinder the wide-scale adoption of eHealth systems. This study provides a comprehensive Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT analysis of the current telemedicine applications in Egypt. Based on that, four future trends in Telemedicine in Egypt 2020 have been identified from governmental, financial, technological, and medical perspectives. Consequently, these future trends were aligned to the global trends in telemedicine. The main output of this study is that telemedicine should be part of a National eHealth Initiative.[german] Bis heute konnten in vielen Ländern erfolgreich Telemedizin und moderne Informationstechnik in vielen medizinischen Prozessen von der Diagnostik über Therapie und Vorsorge bis hin zur Medizinischen Ausbildung und Forschung integriert werden. Aber gerade in Entwicklungsländern ist es oft nicht gelungen, nützliche Telemedizin-Lösungen dauerhaft zu etablieren. Ägypten hat bereits erhebliche Fortschritte dabei gemacht, sich zu einer Informationsgesellschaft zu entwickeln. Es wurden rechtliche und regulatorische Rahmenbedingungen geschaffen, in deren Rahmen eine leistungsfähige Infrastruktur für Informations- und Kommunikationstechnik aufgebaut werden konnte. Dennoch sehen sich ägyptische Telemedizinprojekte immer noch mit erheblichen Problemen und Herausforderungen

  13. The Diagnosis and Hemodynamic Monitoring of Circulatory Shock: Current and Future Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendy Adham

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Circulatory shock is a complex clinical syndrome encompassing a group of conditions that can arise from different etiologies and presented by several different hemodynamic patterns. If not corrected, cell dysfunction, irreversible multiple organ insufficiency, and death may occur. The four basic types of shock, hypovolemic, cardiogenic, obstructive and distributive, have features similar to that of hemodynamic shock. It is therefore essential, when monitoring hemodynamic shock, to making accurate clinical assessments which will guide and dictate appropriate management therapy. The European Society of Intensive Care has recently made recommendations for monitoring hemodynamic shock. The present paper discusses the issues raised in the new statements, including individualization of blood pressure targets, prediction of fluid responsiveness, and the use of echocardiography as the first means during the initial evaluation of circulatory shock. Also, the place of more invasive hemodynamic monitoring techniques and future trends in hemodynamic and metabolic monitoring in circulatory shock, will be debated.

  14. Comprehensive management of pressure ulcers in spinal cord injury: Current concepts and future trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruger, Erwin A.; Pires, Marilyn; Ngann, Yvette; Sterling, Michelle; Rubayi, Salah

    2013-01-01

    Pressure ulcers in spinal cord injury represent a challenging problem for patients, their caregivers, and their physicians. They often lead to recurrent hospitalizations, multiple surgeries, and potentially devastating complications. They present a significant cost to the healthcare system, they require a multidisciplinary team approach to manage well, and outcomes directly depend on patients' education, prevention, and compliance with conservative and surgical protocols. With so many factors involved in the successful treatment of pressure ulcers, an update on their comprehensive management in spinal cord injury is warranted. Current concepts of local wound care, surgical options, as well as future trends from the latest wound healing research are reviewed to aid medical professionals in treating patients with this difficult problem. PMID:24090179

  15. End-of-Life Care and Psychiatry: Current Trends and Future Directions in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayita K Deodhar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Although 80% of the deaths worldwide occur in middle- and low-income countries such as India, there is less awareness of end-of-life care (EOLC for people with chronic, serious, progressive, or advanced life-limiting illnesses, including dementia. EOLC involves good communication, clinical decision-making, liaison with medical teams and families, comprehensive assessment of and specialized interventions for physical, psychological, spiritual, and social needs of patients and their caregivers. The psychiatrist can play a significant role in each of the above domains in EOLC. The current trends in India are examined, including ambiguities between EOLC and euthanasia. Future directions include formulating a national EOLC policy, providing appropriate services and training. The psychiatrist should get involved in this process, with major responsibilities in providing good quality EOLC for patients with both life-limiting physical illnesses and severe mental disorders, supporting their caregivers, and ensuring dignity in death.

  16. End-of-Life Care and Psychiatry: Current Trends and Future Directions in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deodhar, Jayita K

    2016-01-01

    Although 80% of the deaths worldwide occur in middle- and low-income countries such as India, there is less awareness of end-of-life care (EOLC) for people with chronic, serious, progressive, or advanced life-limiting illnesses, including dementia. EOLC involves good communication, clinical decision-making, liaison with medical teams and families, comprehensive assessment of and specialized interventions for physical, psychological, spiritual, and social needs of patients and their caregivers. The psychiatrist can play a significant role in each of the above domains in EOLC. The current trends in India are examined, including ambiguities between EOLC and euthanasia. Future directions include formulating a national EOLC policy, providing appropriate services and training. The psychiatrist should get involved in this process, with major responsibilities in providing good quality EOLC for patients with both life-limiting physical illnesses and severe mental disorders, supporting their caregivers, and ensuring dignity in death.

  17. Assessing future vegetation trends and restoration prospects in the Karst regions of Southwest China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tong, Xiaowei; Wang, Kelin; Brandt, Martin Stefan;

    2016-01-01

    To alleviate the severe rocky desertification and improve the ecological conditions in Southwest China, the national and local Chinese governments have implemented a series of Ecological Restoration Projects since the late 1990s. In this context, remote sensing can be a valuable tool for conserva......To alleviate the severe rocky desertification and improve the ecological conditions in Southwest China, the national and local Chinese governments have implemented a series of Ecological Restoration Projects since the late 1990s. In this context, remote sensing can be a valuable tool...... are utilized. The proposed framework of this analysis has been proven to work well for assessing restoration prospects in the study area, and due to the generic design, the method is expected to be applicable for other areas of complex landscapes in the world to explore future trends of vegetation....

  18. Quantitative imaging of volcanic plumes — Results, needs, and future trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platt, Ulrich; Lübcke, Peter; Kuhn, Jonas; Bobrowski, Nicole; Prata, Fred; Burton, Mike; Kern, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Recent technology allows two-dimensional “imaging” of trace gas distributions in plumes. In contrast to older, one-dimensional remote sensing techniques, that are only capable of measuring total column densities, the new imaging methods give insight into details of transport and mixing processes as well as chemical transformation within plumes. We give an overview of gas imaging techniques already being applied at volcanoes (SO2cameras, imaging DOAS, FT-IR imaging), present techniques where first field experiments were conducted (LED-LIDAR, tomographic mapping), and describe some techniques where only theoretical studies with application to volcanology exist (e.g. Fabry–Pérot Imaging, Gas Correlation Spectroscopy, bi-static LIDAR). Finally, we discuss current needs and future trends in imaging technology.

  19. Signal Processing in High-End Hearing Aids: State of the Art, Challenges, and Future Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Rass

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available The development of hearing aids incorporates two aspects, namely, the audiological and the technical point of view. The former focuses on items like the recruitment phenomenon, the speech intelligibility of hearing-impaired persons, or just on the question of hearing comfort. Concerning these subjects, different algorithms intending to improve the hearing ability are presented in this paper. These are automatic gain controls, directional microphones, and noise reduction algorithms. Besides the audiological point of view, there are several purely technical problems which have to be solved. An important one is the acoustic feedback. Another instance is the proper automatic control of all hearing aid components by means of a classification unit. In addition to an overview of state-of-the-art algorithms, this paper focuses on future trends.

  20. Trends in meat science and technology: the future looks bright, but the journey will be long.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristensen, L; Støier, S; Würtz, J; Hinrichsen, L

    2014-11-01

    With an increasing world population, an increase in affluence and a substantial growth in the demand for high quality protein, the meat sector faces a fantastic but challenging century. New scientific knowledge, technology and creative minds are the main ingredients in order to reach out for this great opportunity. Efficiency all the way from breeding and farming to processing and dispatch is crucial for success. Technology has brought us far, and there is still a huge potential for increased efficiency by implementing best practices on a global scale. New challenges include: hyper flexible automation, more accurate and faster measurement systems and meeting special consumer demands already at the production line. Systems for optimal animal welfare will be even more important and sustainability is no longer a consumer trend but a license to operate. The scientific meat society must provide knowledge and technology so we together can reach out for a seemingly bright future.

  1. Future trends in soil cadmium concentration under current cadmium fluxes to European agricultural soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Six, L; Smolders, E

    2014-07-01

    The gradual increase of soil cadmium concentrations in European soils during the 20th century has prompted environmental legislation to limit soil cadmium (Cd) accumulation. Mass balances (input-output) reflecting the period 1980-1995 predicted larger Cd inputs via phosphate (P) fertilizers and atmospheric deposition than outputs via crop uptake and leaching. This study updates the Cd mass balance for the agricultural top soils of EU-27+Norway (EU-27+1). Over the past 15 years, the use of P fertilizers in the EU-27+1 has decreased by 40%. The current mean atmospheric deposition of Cd in EU is 0.35 g Cd ha(-1) yr(-1), this is strikingly smaller than values used in the previous EU mass balances (~3 g Cd ha(-1) yr(-1)). Leaching of Cd was estimated with most recent data of soil solution Cd concentrations in 151 soils, which cover the range of European soil properties. No significant time trends were found in the data of net applications of Cd via manure, compost, sludge and lime, all being small sources of Cd at a large scale. Modelling of the future long-term changes in soil Cd concentrations in agricultural top soils under cereal or potato culture predicts soil Cd concentrations to decrease by 15% over the next 100 years in an average scenario, with decreasing trends in some scenarios being more prevalent than increasing trends in other scenarios. These Cd balances have reverted from the general positive balances estimated 10 or more years ago. Uncertainty analysis suggests that leaching is the most uncertain relative to other fluxes.

  2. Gender Development Research in Sex Roles: Historical Trends and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Cindy Faith; Ruble, Diane N.; Martin, Carol Lynn; Fabes, Richard A.

    2011-01-01

    The late 1960s through the 1970s marked an important turning point in the field of gender research, including theory and research in gender development. The establishment of Sex Roles in 1975 as a forum for this research represented an important milestone in the field. In this article, we celebrate the 35th anniversary of Sex Roles and, in particular, its contributions to the field of research on children’s and adolescents’ gender development. We examine the trends in research on gender development published in Sex Roles since its inception and use this analysis as a vehicle for exploring how the field has grown and evolved over the past few decades. We begin with a brief review of the history of this field of research since 1975. Then, we present a descriptive assessment of articles published on gender development in Sex Roles over time, and link this assessment to general trends that have occurred in the study of gender development over the past 35 years. We conclude with a discussion of future directions for the field of gender development. In particular, we highlight areas in which the journal could play a role in promoting more diversity in topics, methods, and ages employed in gender development research. PMID:21747580

  3. One hundred and fifty years of sprint and distance running - Past trends and future prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Martin; Newman, Alexandra; Whitmore, Ceri; Weiss, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    Sprint and distance running have experienced remarkable performance improvements over the past century. Attempts to forecast running performances share an almost similarly long history but have relied so far on relatively short data series. Here, we compile a comprehensive set of season-best performances for eight Olympically contested running events. With this data set, we conduct (1) an exponential time series analysis and (2) a power-law experience curve analysis to quantify the rate of past performance improvements and to forecast future performances until the year 2100. We find that the sprint and distance running performances of women and men improve exponentially with time and converge at yearly rates of 4% ± 3% and 2% ± 2%, respectively, towards their asymptotic limits. Running performances can also be modelled with the experience curve approach, yielding learning rates of 3% ± 1% and 6% ± 2% for the women's and men's events, respectively. Long-term trends suggest that: (1) women will continue to run 10-20% slower than men, (2) 9.50 s over 100 m dash may only be broken at the end of this century and (3) several middle- and long-distance records may be broken within the next two to three decades. The prospects of witnessing a sub-2 hour marathon before 2100 remain inconclusive. Our results should be interpreted cautiously as forecasting human behaviour is intrinsically uncertain. The future season-best sprint and distance running performances will continue to scatter around the trends identified here and may yield unexpected improvements of standing world records.

  4. Current trends on knowledge-based systems

    CERN Document Server

    Valencia-García, Rafael

    2017-01-01

    This book presents innovative and high-quality research on the implementation of conceptual frameworks, strategies, techniques, methodologies, informatics platforms and models for developing advanced knowledge-based systems and their application in different fields, including Agriculture, Education, Automotive, Electrical Industry, Business Services, Food Manufacturing, Energy Services, Medicine and others. Knowledge-based technologies employ artificial intelligence methods to heuristically address problems that cannot be solved by means of formal techniques. These technologies draw on standard and novel approaches from various disciplines within Computer Science, including Knowledge Engineering, Natural Language Processing, Decision Support Systems, Artificial Intelligence, Databases, Software Engineering, etc. As a combination of different fields of Artificial Intelligence, the area of Knowledge-Based Systems applies knowledge representation, case-based reasoning, neural networks, Semantic Web and TICs used...

  5. Geneva University: Pixel Detectors – trends and options for the future

    CERN Multimedia

    Geneva University

    2012-01-01

    GENEVA UNIVERSITY École de physique Département de physique nucléaire et corspusculaire 24, quai Ernest-Ansermet 1211 Genève 4 Tél.: (022) 379 62 73 Fax: (022) 379 69 92   Wednesday 25 April 2012 SEMINAIRE DE PHYSIQUE CORPUSCULAIRE Science III, Auditoire 1S081 30Science III, Auditoire 1S081 30 Pixel Detectors – trends and options for the future Prof. Norbert Wermes - University of Bonn  Pixel detectors have been invented in the early 90s with the advancement of micro technologies. With the advent of the LHC, big vertex detectors have demonstrated that the pixel detector type is holding many of the promises it had made before. Meanwhile new, different or just improved variants of the pixel technology are being studied for their suitability for future experiments or experiment upgrades. The talk will address the various pro's and con's comparing hybrid and monolithic pixel technologies and their su...

  6. Visualizing genome and systems biology: technologies, tools, implementation techniques and trends, past, present and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlopoulos, Georgios A; Malliarakis, Dimitris; Papanikolaou, Nikolas; Theodosiou, Theodosis; Enright, Anton J; Iliopoulos, Ioannis

    2015-01-01

    "Α picture is worth a thousand words." This widely used adage sums up in a few words the notion that a successful visual representation of a concept should enable easy and rapid absorption of large amounts of information. Although, in general, the notion of capturing complex ideas using images is very appealing, would 1000 words be enough to describe the unknown in a research field such as the life sciences? Life sciences is one of the biggest generators of enormous datasets, mainly as a result of recent and rapid technological advances; their complexity can make these datasets incomprehensible without effective visualization methods. Here we discuss the past, present and future of genomic and systems biology visualization. We briefly comment on many visualization and analysis tools and the purposes that they serve. We focus on the latest libraries and programming languages that enable more effective, efficient and faster approaches for visualizing biological concepts, and also comment on the future human-computer interaction trends that would enable for enhancing visualization further.

  7. Current and future trends in educational computing: Implications for training language teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jannie Botha

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In the first part of this paper an overview is given of the current state of educational technology as well as some future trends in this rapidly developing field. The focus is on developments with regard to hardware and software. It is pointed out that a clear distinction between hardware and software is not always possible. Specific reference is made to a Hypertext programme and the promises it holds for the future. In the second part of the paper specific guidelines for training teachers in computerassisted language instruction (CALl are given. This is done against the background given in the first part of the paper. Guidelines are proposed for the training of language teachers. In die eerste gedeelte van hierdie artikel word 'n oorsig gegee van die huidige stand van opvoedkundige tegnologie en ook sommige toekomsneigings op hierdie snelontwikkelende gebied. Die fokus vat op ontwikkelings ten opsigte van apparatuur en pro grammatuur. Daar word aangedui dat 'n duidelike onderskeid tussen apparatuur en programmatuur nie altyd moontlik is nie. Daar word spesifiek verwys na 'n hiperteksprogram en die moontlikhede wat dit vir die toekoms inhou. In die tweede gedeelte van die artikel word spesifieke riglyne vir die opleiding van rekenaargesteunde taalonderrigonderwysers (RGTO gegee. Dit word gedoen teen die agtergrond wat in die eerste gedeelte van die artikel gegee is. Riglyne vir die opleiding van taalonderwysers word voorgestel.

  8. Radiology Research in Quality and Safety: Current Trends and Future Needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zygmont, Matthew E; Itri, Jason N; Rosenkrantz, Andrew B; Duong, Phuong-Anh T; Mankowski Gettle, Lori; Mendiratta-Lala, Mishal; Scali, Elena P; Winokur, Ronald S; Probyn, Linda; Kung, Justin W; Bakow, Eric; Kadom, Nadja

    2017-03-01

    Promoting quality and safety research is now essential for radiology as reimbursement is increasingly tied to measures of quality, patient safety, efficiency, and appropriateness of imaging. This article provides an overview of key features necessary to promote successful quality improvement efforts in radiology. Emphasis is given to current trends and future opportunities for directing research. Establishing and maintaining a culture of safety is paramount to organizations wishing to improve patient care. The correct culture must be in place to support quality initiatives and create accountability for patient care. Focused educational curricula are necessary to teach quality and safety-related skills and behaviors to trainees, staff members, and physicians. The increasingly complex healthcare landscape requires that organizations build effective data infrastructures to support quality and safety research. Incident reporting systems designed specifically for medical imaging will benefit quality improvement initiatives by identifying and learning from system errors, enhancing knowledge about safety, and creating safer systems through the implementation of standardized practices and standards. Finally, validated performance measures must be developed to accurately reflect the value of the care we provide for our patients and referring providers. Common metrics used in radiology are reviewed with focus on current and future opportunities for investigation. Copyright © 2017 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Introduction: Envisioning Future War; Strategic Insights, v. 10, Special issue (October 2011), 1-6. Topic: Global Trends and Future Warfare

    OpenAIRE

    Moran, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    This article appeared in Strategic Insights, v.10, Special issue (October 2011), 1-6. Topic: Global Trends and Future Warfare Approved for public display, distribution unlimited The workshop whose proceedings are presented here was convened to provide the National Intelligence Council (NIC) with insight into the way war in the intermediate future, meaning the next twenty years or so, is viewed from the perspective of America's allies, partners, and potential adversaries. The group took ...

  10. Adaptive Wavelets Based on Second Generation Wavelet Transform and Their Applications to Trend Analysis and Prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DUAN Chen-dong; JIANG Hong-kai; HE Zheng-jia

    2004-01-01

    In order to make trend analysis and prediction to acquisition data in a mechanical equipment condition monitoring system, a new method of trend feature extraction and prediction of acquisition data is proposed which constructs an adaptive wavelet on the acquisition data by means of second generation wavelet transform (SGWT). Firstly, taking the vanishing moment number of the predictor as a constraint, the linear predictor and updater are designed according to the acquisition data by using symmetrical interpolating scheme. Then the trend of the data is obtained through doing SGWT decomposition, threshold processing and SGWT reconstruction. Secondly, under the constraint of the vanishing moment number of the predictor, another predictor based on the acquisition data is devised to predict the future trend of the data using a non-symmetrical interpolating scheme. A one-step prediction algorithm is presented to predict the future evolution trend with historical data. The proposed method obtained a desirable effect in peak-to-peak value trend analysis for a machine set in an oil refinery.

  11. The changing world of gas exploration present and future trends; Les evolutions dans le secteur de l'exploration du gaz tendances actuelles et futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duval, B.C. [Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP), 92 - Rueil-Malmaison (France); Maisonnier, G. [Gedigaz, France (France)

    2000-07-01

    The industry has, in the past decade, added much more gas than it has produced, resulting in a 36% increase in world reserves. Therefore the resource base is no longer considered a serious constraint in satisfying the industry's needs. Under such circumstances, one may ask the question: is exploration for gas still needed? One way in which we may deal with this major issue would be to analyse the changes that occur in the upstream world, in relation to technology, the general business context and industry's strategies and their potential impact on future trends. Dramatic advancements in exploration technologies have helped to improve success ratios and prediction of fluid, and to open new prospective areas, while also reducing costs. From a State point of view, exploration constitutes a long term objective to contend with natural gas consumption growth without depending too much on imports, or to develop resources for exports. From a company perception, exploration appears as a necessity not only for future growth but also for geographical or geopolitical opportunities. Gas reserve additions will come increasingly from a combination of exploration and production deals. The numerous new opportunities created by a more open business environment will facilitate such developments. (authors)

  12. Prediction of future car forms based on historical trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bijendra Kumar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Cars are one of the most important products that affects our daily life. Manufacturers of cars are inclined to know factors that affect the sales of cars and how to influence them. Car is a very competitive product whose technology is already matured. Thus, purchase decisions of a car depend on factors such as, aesthetics, ergonomics, features available and price. Exterior form and colour of a car are the most important factors that influence likeness of the car. We did a case study on car aesthetics (form, colour, shape, and user focus with more than 500 car advertisements over the past 70 years, appearing in various car magazines. Results show that form of cars has changed from sharp to smooth over the years, and white colour cars are becoming more popular. Additionally, car size is becoming smaller and increasingly focused towards family. Thus, manufacturers are recommended to develop compact, efficient and hybrid cars.

  13. Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

    2009-09-01

    It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As direct GCM-output significantly underestimates the variance of daily surface temperature variables in NW Spain, these variables are obtained by applying a statistical downscaling technique (analog method), using 850hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure as combined predictors. The predictor fields have been extracted from three GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4 under A1, A1B and A2 scenarios. The definitions of the extreme indices have been taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparisons of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: less nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic

  14. Current trends in ground based solar magnetometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosain, Sanjay

    2016-07-01

    Continuous observations of the sun, over more than a century, have led to several important discoveries in solar astronomy. These include the discovery of the solar magnetism and its cyclic modulation, active region formation and decay and their role in energetic phenomena such as fares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), fine structure and dynamics of the sunspots and small-scale organization of the magnetic flux in the form of flux tubes and so forth. In this article we give a brief overview of advancements in solar observational techniques in recent decades and the results obtained from the such observations. These include techniques to achieve high angular resolution, high spectral and polarimetric sensitivity and innovative new detectors. A wide range of spatial, temporal and spectral domains exploited by solar astronomers to understand the solar phenomena are discussed. Many new upcoming telescopes and instruments that are designed to address different aspects of solar physics problems are briefly described. Finally, we discuss the advantages of observing from the ground and how they can complement space-based observations.

  15. A reevaluation of carbon monoxide: past trends, future concentrations, and implications for conformity "hot-spot" policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisinger, Douglas S; Dougherty, Kellie; Chang, Daniel P Y; Kear, Tom; Morgan, Pamela F

    2002-09-01

    Control of CO is one of the great air-quality management success stories of the past 20 years. This paper evaluates whether past progress will continue into the future and whether changes in microscale CO concentrations are comparable to reductions observed at the regional scale. Neighborhood and microscale CO concentrations were evaluated at six northern and southern California monitoring sites. The study also included a review of CO emission, concentration, and exposure trends and on-road motor vehicle-based CO emission control programs for California and the United States. Consistent with California and national trends, CO concentrations declined at each of the six study locations from 1988 through 1998. Microscale concentrations declined at the same rate as did neighborhood-scale concentrations. Rollback analyses demonstrated that microscale concentrations will continue to decline through at least 2010-2020. Within a few years, microscale violations of the CO National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) will be unlikely in California except under extraordinary circumstances.

  16. Future trends and geographical distribution of potential evapotranspiration in Germany throughout the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauch, E.; Panferov, O.; Doering, C.

    2009-04-01

    Recent climate projections for the 21st century (e.g. ECHAM5-MPIOM) show strong changes of the global climate. Forests in Germany are exposed to these changes, which include increase of temperature, changes of seasonal precipitation patterns and possibly the increase of frequency of extreme meteorological events as droughts, rain and wind storms. Present study focuses on the characterization of possible future developments of potential evapotranspiration (PET) throughout the 21st Century under conditions of SRES scenarios A1B and B1. The FAO-56-Penman-Monteith (ALLEN et al., 1998) was implemented. Climate scenario data were downscaled by the regional climate model Climate Local Model (CLM) to the spatial resolution of about 0.2°*0.2° and used to calculate PET for Germany. The spatial and temporal variability of PET in Germany during the 21st century is examined and causes of variation discussed. Areas within Germany with particularly stronger - hot spots - and weaker - cold spots - changes in PET are identified and analyzed in detail. Two hot spots, the Saarland and the Black Forest, and a cold spot, East Brandenburg, were identified. The deviating development of the hot/cold spots are traced back to the stronger or weaker development of the energy balance, which is higher in the hot spots and lower in the cold spot. The spatially differential development of PET could be traced back to the regionally different development of the meteorological variables. The contributions of various meteorological variables to the temporal trend detected in the PET are then determined. Clear trends in the annual sums or means could be described for several component variables of PET. Some variables do not show any noteworthy trend in annual mean but changes in their seasonal variability. The annual PET sums do not increase so much as expected when seen in relation to the temperature increase predicted for the 21st century, particularly in SRES A1B. PET in B1 does not evolve as

  17. Informing management on the future structure of hospital care: an extrapolation of trends in demand and costs in lung diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogl, Matthias; Leidl, Reiner

    2016-05-01

    The planning of health care management benefits from understanding future trends in demand and costs. In the case of lung diseases in the national German hospital market, we therefore analyze the current structure of care, and forecast future trends in key process indicators. We use standardized, patient-level, activity-based costing from a national cost calculation data set of respiratory cases, representing 11.9-14.1 % of all cases in the major diagnostic category "respiratory system" from 2006 to 2012. To forecast hospital admissions, length of stay (LOS), and costs, the best adjusted models out of possible autoregressive integrated moving average models and exponential smoothing models are used. The number of cases is predicted to increase substantially, from 1.1 million in 2006 to 1.5 million in 2018 (+2.7 % each year). LOS is expected to decrease from 7.9 to 6.1 days, and overall costs to increase from 2.7 to 4.5 billion euros (+4.3 % each year). Except for lung cancer (-2.3 % each year), costs for all respiratory disease areas increase: surgical interventions +9.2 % each year, COPD +3.9 %, bronchitis and asthma +1.7 %, infections +2.0 %, respiratory failure +2.6 %, and other diagnoses +8.5 % each year. The share of costs of surgical interventions in all costs of respiratory cases increases from 17.8 % in 2006 to 30.8 % in 2018. Overall costs are expected to increase particularly because of an increasing share of expensive surgical interventions and rare diseases, and because of higher intensive care, operating room, and diagnostics and therapy costs.

  18. An Analysis of Sport Event Tourism Research: Trends, Issues and Future Directions

    OpenAIRE

    Douglas Michele TURCO

    2008-01-01

    Sport tourism as an academic discipline and research focus has evolved considerably in the past two decades. Textbooks, academic conferences, undergraduate and graduate degree programmes, and a scientific journal, Journal of Sport and Tourism, now exist. This article examines the current body of research devoted to event-based sport tourism and identifies patterns of sport tourist behaviors, research issues, and future areas for research. Research focus areas covered include event economic im...

  19. Dynamo Models of the Solar Cycle: Current Trends and Future Prospects

    CERN Document Server

    Nandy, Dibyendu

    2011-01-01

    The magnetic cycle of the Sun, as manifested in the cyclic appearance of sunspots, significantly influences our space environment and space-based technologies by generating what is now termed as space weather. Long-term variation in the Sun's magnetic output also influences planetary atmospheres and climate through modulation of solar irradiance. Here, I summarize the current state of understanding of this magnetic cycle, highlighting important observational constraints, detailing the kinematic dynamo modeling approach and commenting on future prospects.

  20. Pipeline four-dimension management is the trend of pipeline integrity management in the future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaohua, Dong; Feifan; Zhongchen, Han [China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Beijing (China)

    2009-07-01

    Pipeline integrity management is essential for today's operators to operate their pipelines safety and cost effectively. The latest developments of pipeline integrity management around the world are involved with change of regulation, industry standard and innovation of technology. And who know the trend of PIM in the future, which can be answered in the paper. As a result, the concept of P4DM was set up firstly in the world. The paper analyzed the pipeline HSE management, pipeline integrity management (PIM) and asset integrity management (AIM), the problem of management was produced, and also the Pipeline 4-dimension Management (P4DM) theory was brought forward. According to P4DM, from the hierarchy of P4DM, the management elements, fields, space and time was analyzed. The main content is P4DM integrate the space geography location and time, control and manage the pipeline system in whole process, anywhere and anytime. It includes the pipeline integrity, pipeline operation and emergency, which is integrated by IT system. It come true that the idea, solution, technology, organization, manager alternately intelligently control the process of management. What the paper talks about included the definition of pipeline 4D management, the research develop of P4DM, the theory of P4DM, the relationship between P4DM and PIM, the technology basis of P4DM, how to perform the P4DM and conclusion. The P4DM was produced, which provide the development direction of PIM in the future, and also provide the new ideas for PetroChina in the field of technology and management. (author)

  1. Future Trends in Production Engineering : Proceedings of the First Conference of the German Academic Society for Production Engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Neugebauer, Reimund; Uhlmann, Eckart

    2013-01-01

    To meet and adapt to the current and future trends and issues in technology and society, the science committee of The German Academic Society for Production Engineering (WGP) continues to define future topics for production technology. These themes represent not only the key focus for the scientific work of the WGP, but also the central themes of the first annual conference in June 2011, whose paper is publically available in this volume. Such themes, including electric mobility, medical technology, lightweight construction, and resource efficiency, as well as mass production ability have all been identified as future, large-scale, and long-term drivers of change. Future trends influence changes sustainably and fundamentally; they permeate society, technology, economics, and value systems and have an effect in virtually all areas of life. The WGP has, as part of its research, established for itself the goal of not only observing these emerging changes, but also of supervising and influencing their development...

  2. The use of vintage surficial sediment data and sedimentary cores to determine past and future trends in estuarine metal contamination (Sydney estuary, Australia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birch, G F; Chang, C-H; Lee, J-H; Churchill, L J

    2013-06-01

    The objectives of the present investigation were to determine past trends in sediment contamination and possibly predict future trends. Multiple vintages of surficial sediment metal data, from a quasi-decadal 'Status and Trends' programme, were used to provide large-scale spatial information on current status and temporal change. This information was augmented by sediment cores, specifically located to verify surface sediment data and to determine trends at major points of stormwater discharge. The data obtained indicate that surficial sediment metal concentrations have declined, since about the early 1990s, in extensive parts of the upper and central estuaries and have increased slightly in the lower estuary, due mainly to a down-estuary shift in industry and urbanisation. Declining surficial sediment metal concentrations is due to a movement of industry out of the catchment, especially from foreshore areas and the introduction of regulation, which prevent pollutants being discharged directly to the estuary. The major present-day source of metals is stormwater, with minor inputs from the main estuary channel into embayments and runoff from previously contaminated mainland sites. Modelled relaxation rates are optimistic as high metal concentrations in stormwater will slow predicted rates. Stormwater remediation should be the main managerial focus for this estuary. Multiple vintages of surficial sediment metal data covering the past 30 years, supplemented by sedimentary core data, have allowed past and future contamination trends to be determined. This type of science-based information provides an important tool for strategic management of this iconic waterway.

  3. Information-time based futures pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Simon; Wang, Jai Jen

    2009-09-01

    This study follows Clark [P.K. Clark, A subordinated stochastic process model with finite variance for speculative prices, Econometrica 41 (1973) 135-155] and Chang, Chang and Lim [C.W. Chang, S.K. Chang, K.G. Lim, Information-time option pricing: Theory and empirical evidence, Journal of Financial Economics 48 (1998) 211-242] to subordinate an information-time based directing process into calendar-time based parent processes. A closed-form futures pricing formula is derived after taking into account the information-time setting and the stochasticity of the spot price, interest rate, and convenience yield. According to the empirical results on the TAIEX and TFETX data from 1998/7/21 to 2003/12/31, the information-time based model performs better than its calendar-time based counterpart and the cost of carry model, especially when the information arrival intensity estimates become larger.

  4. Prevention of voice prosthesis biofilms: current scenario and future trends in prolonging prosthesis lifetime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayed, Sushail I; Datta, Sourav; Deore, Nitin; Kazi, Rehan A; Jagade, Mohan V

    2012-03-01

    Voice rehabilitation after a total laryngectomy is an important requisite for patients' rehabilitation. Oesophageal speech using tracheo-oesophageal-valved prostheses is now considered the state-of-art in postlaryngectomy voice rehabilitation. One of the major drawbacks of voice prostheses is their limited device lifetime. This is due to the deterioration of the silicone rubber material by different bacterial and yeast species, which are organised in the form of a biofilm resulting in internal leakage, increased airflow resistance, impeding speech, respiration and swallowing. The use of antimicrobials though easily applicable is associated with development of resistance if used on long-term basis. Other techniques in the form of modification of physicochemical properties of the silicon surface or covalent binding of antimicrobial agents to the silicon surface have been employed. This article reviews the different strategies investigated until now and the future trends in preventing biofilm formation for prolonging the lifetime of the silicon voice prostheses. Data was collected by conducting a computer aided search of the MED-LINE and PUBMED databases, supplemented by hand searches of key journals. Over 35 articles in the last two decades on the topic have been reviewed out of which 27 were found to be of relevant value for this article.

  5. A Pan-Arctic Network to Study Past, Present, and Future Sea Ice Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wegner, Carolyn; Frey, Karen E.; Michel, Christine

    2011-03-01

    Arctic in Rapid Transition Implementation Workshop; Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, 18-20 October 2010 ; Rapid transitions in Arctic sea ice and the associated global integrated Earth system impacts and socioeconomic consequences have brought the Arctic Ocean to the top of national and international geophysical and political agendas. Alarmingly, there is a persistent mismatch between observed and predicted patterns, which speaks to the complexity of planning adaptation and mitigation activities in the Arctic. Predicting future conditions of Arctic marine ecosystems for climate change requires interdisciplinary and pan-Arctic characterization and understanding of past and present trends. The Arctic in Rapid Transition (ART) initiative is an integrative, international, interdisciplinary, pan-Arctic network to study spatial and temporal changes in sea ice cover and ocean circulation over broad time scales to better understand and forecast the impact of these changes on Arctic marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry. The ART initiative began in October 2008 and is still led by early-career scientists. The ART science plan, developed after the ART initiation workshop in November 2009, was endorsed by the Arctic Ocean Sciences Board, which is now the Marine Working Group of the International Arctic Science Committee.

  6. Environmental radioactivity measurements and applications - Difficulties, current status and future trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anagnostakis, Marios J.

    2015-11-01

    For several decades natural and artificial radioactivity in the environment have been extensively studied all around the world. Nuclear accidents - mainly that of Chernobyl - have led to the development of the field of radioecology, while detector systems and techniques - with predominant that of γ-spectrometry - have been continuously developed through the years to meet researchers' needs. The study of natural radionuclides that was originally limited to 226Ra, 232Th and 40K was then extended to include radionuclides such as 234Th, 210Pb, 235U and 7Be, which allowed the study of radioactive equilibrium. Besides their importance from the radiation protection point of view, many radionuclides are also used as tracers of environmental processes, such as aerosol and transportation of air masses studies (7Be, 10Be, 22Na), soil erosion, sedimentation and geochronology (210Pb, 137Cs), marine ecosystems studies and studies related to climate change. All these studies require specialized samplings strategies and sampling preparation techniques as well as high quality measurements, while the improvement of detection limits is often of vital importance. This work is a review of environmental radioactivity measurements and applications, mainly focused in the field of γ-spectrometry, for which difficulties and limitations will be presented, together with future trends, new challenges and applications.

  7. Streptococcus thermophilus, an emerging and promising tool for heterologous expression: Advantages and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecomte, Xavier; Gagnaire, Valérie; Lortal, Sylvie; Dary, Annie; Genay, Magali

    2016-02-01

    Streptococcus thermophilus is the second most used bacterium in dairy industry. It is daily consumed by millions of people through the worldwide consumption of yogurts, cheeses and fermented milks. S. thermophilus presents many features that make it a good candidate for the production of heterologous proteins. First, its ability to be naturally transformable allows obtaining swiftly and easily recombinant strains using various genetic tools available. Second, its Generally Recognised As Safe status and its ability to produce beneficial molecules or to liberate bioactive peptides from milk proteins open up the way for the development of new functional foods to maintain health and well-being of consumers. Finally, its ability to survive the intestinal passage and to be metabolically active in gastrointestinal tract allows considering S. thermophilus as a potential tool for delivering various biological molecules to the gastrointestinal tract. The aim of this review is therefore to take stock of various genetic tools which can be employed in S. thermophilus to produce heterologous proteins and to highlight the advantages and future trends of use of this bacterium as a heterologous expression host.

  8. Share price trend based on analysis of investor’s online activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihail Dumitru SACALĂ

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The desire of modeling the influence coming from behavioral economics, representing mostly qualitative variables, requires new approaches to quantify this influence. In this paper we present an analytical method for determining the direction of the share future return using an aggregate indicator calculated based exclusively on the trend of registered variables from investor’s online activity. This online activity refers to the number and content of messages posted by investors on shares analysis dedicated web blogs.

  9. Trends in offshore wind economics – the past and the future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kitzing, Lena; Morthorst, Poul Erik

    2015-01-01

    as much as onshore wind. Moreover, upfront investment costs make up to 75% of the total lifetime cost, which makes financing extremely difficult. We investigate the development of offshore wind based on a unique collection of economic data comprising all major offshore wind power plants in Europe. We use......Expectations to the development of offshore wind are high, especially in Europe. Offshore wind is expected to contribute significantly to the reaching on renewable energy targets, in 2020 and beyond. However, offshore wind power plants are expensive. They currently still cost approximately twice...... our data set to investigate trends in investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, financing and profitability, and identify key economic drivers for offshore wind energy. More specifically, we analyse economic consequences in areas such as project sizes, turbine capacity, distance to shore...

  10. Study of recent and future trends in place of death in Belgium using death certificate data: a shift from hospitals to care homes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deliens Luc

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since most patients prefer out-of-hospital death, place of death can be considered an indicator of end-of-life care quality. The study of trends in place of death is necessary to examine causes of shifts, to evaluate efforts to alter place of death and develop future policies. This study aims to examine past trends and future projections of place of death. Methods Analysis of death certificates (decedents aged ≥ 1 year in Belgium (Flanders and Brussels Capital region 1998-2007. Trends in place of death were adjusted for cause of death, sociodemographic characteristics, environmental factors, numbers of hospital beds, and residential and skilled nursing beds in care homes. Future trends were based on age- and sex-specific mortality prognoses. Results Hospital deaths decreased from 55.1% to 51.7% and care home deaths rose from 18.3% to 22.6%. The percentage of home deaths remained stable. The odds of dying in a care home versus hospital increased steadily and was 1.65 (95%CI:1.53-1.78 in 2007 compared to 1998. This increase could be attributed to the replacement of residential beds by skilled nursing beds. Continuation of these trends would result in the more than doubling of deaths in care homes and a decrease in deaths at home and in hospital by 2040. Conclusions Additional end-of-life care resources in care homes largely explain the decrease in hospital deaths. Care homes will become the main locus of end-of-life care in the future. Governments should provide sufficient skilled nursing resources in care homes to fulfil the end-of-life care preferences and needs of patients.

  11. SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike

    2017-09-01

    Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.

  12. Predicting the Future Burden of Esophageal Cancer by Histological Subtype: International Trends in Incidence up to 2030.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Melina; Laversanne, Mathieu; Brown, Linda Morris; Devesa, Susan S; Bray, Freddie

    2017-08-01

    Rapid increases in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in high-income countries in the past decades have raised public health concerns. This study is the first to predict the future burden of esophageal cancer by histological subtype using international incidence data. Data on esophageal cancer incidence by year of diagnosis, sex, histology, and age group were extracted from 42 registries in 12 countries included in the last three volumes (VIII-X) of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, contributing at least 15 years of consecutive data. Numbers of new cases and incidence rates were predicted up to 2030 by fitting and extrapolating age-period-cohort models; the differential impact of demographic vs. risk changes on future cases were examined. The number of new AC cases is expected to increase rapidly 2005-2030 in all studied countries as a combined result of increasing risk and changing demographics. In contrast, the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is predicted to continue decreasing in most countries. By 2030, 1 in 100 men in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are predicted to be diagnosed with EAC during their lifetime. The burden from EAC is expected to rise dramatically across high-income countries and has already or will surpass ESCC incidence in the coming years, especially among men. Notwithstanding the inherent uncertainties in trend-based predictions and in subtype misclassification, these findings highlight an ongoing transition in the epidemiology of esophageal cancer that is highly relevant to future cancer control planning and clinical practice.

  13. Natural hazards and climate change in Dhaka: future trends, social adaptation and informal dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiele-Eich, I.; Aßheuer, T.; Simmer, C.; Braun, B.

    2009-04-01

    . Findings are then applied to future global climate scenario runs to obtain a first estimate of trends for the frequency and magnitude of weather extremes and their impact on spatial and temporal characteristics of floods in the Greater Dhaka region. From this estimate, a prediction method for the spatial patterns of flooding within the Dhaka area will be developed. The social part of the project analyzes the vulnerability and resilience of economic and social systems within high-risk areas by utilizing methods such as e.g. quantitative household surveys in Dhaka and qualitative expert interviews. Geographers are hoping to identify adaptation and recovery strategies of slum dwellers and informal businesses (e.g. brickfields, tanneries), analyze the role of social capital as well as formal and informal institutions for building up resilience, and analyze possibilities and limits of adaptation strategies under conditions of further urban growth and climate change. By paying attention to the important behavioral patterns of the informal sector, a meteorological early warning system can then be developed to make better use of weather predictions to mitigate weather-related risks for Greater Dhaka. If successful, this project poses as an exemplary intersection of social science and natural hazards research.

  14. Private expenditure and the role of private health insurance in Greece: status quo and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siskou, Olga; Kaitelidou, Daphne; Economou, Charalampos; Kostagiolas, Peter; Liaropoulos, Lycourgos

    2009-10-01

    The health care system in Greece is financed in almost equal proportions by public and private sources. Private expenditure, consists mostly of out-of-pocket and under-the-table payments. Such payments strongly suggest dissatisfaction with the public system, due to under financing during the last 25 years. This gap has been filled rapidly by the private sector. From this point of view, one might suggest that the flourishing development of private provision may lead in turn to a corresponding growth in private health insurance (PHI). This paper aims to examine the role of PHI in Greece, to identify the factors influencing its development, and to make some suggestions about future policies and trends. In the decade of 1985-1995 PHI show increasing activity, reflecting the intention of some citizens to seek health insurance solutions in the form of supplementary cover in order to ensure faster access, better quality of services, and increased consumer choice. The benefits include programs covering hospital expenses, cash benefits, outpatient care expenses, disability income insurance, as well as limited managed care programs. However, despite recent interest, PHI coverage remains low in Greece compared to other EU countries. Economic, social and cultural factors such as low average household income, high unemployment, obligatory and full coverage by social insurance, lead to reluctance to pay for second-tier insurance. Instead, there is a preference to pay a doctor or hospital directly even in the form of under-the-table payments (which are remarkably high in Greece), when the need arises. There are also factors endogenous to the PHI industry, related to market policies, low organisational capacity, cream skimming, and the absence of insurance products meeting consumer requirements, which explain the relatively low state of development of PHI in Greece.

  15. Surface soil moisture retrievals from remote sensing: Current status, products & future trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petropoulos, George P.; Ireland, Gareth; Barrett, Brian

    Advances in Earth Observation (EO) technology, particularly over the last two decades, have shown that soil moisture content (SMC) can be measured to some degree or other by all regions of the electromagnetic spectrum, and a variety of techniques have been proposed to facilitate this purpose. In this review we provide a synthesis of the efforts made during the last 20 years or so towards the estimation of surface SMC exploiting EO imagery, with a particular emphasis on retrievals from microwave sensors. Rather than replicating previous overview works, we provide a comprehensive and critical exploration of all the major approaches employed for retrieving SMC in a range of different global ecosystems. In this framework, we consider the newest techniques developed within optical and thermal infrared remote sensing, active and passive microwave domains, as well as assimilation or synergistic approaches. Future trends and prospects of EO for the accurate determination of SMC from space are subject to key challenges, some of which are identified and discussed within. It is evident from this review that there is potential for more accurate estimation of SMC exploiting EO technology, particularly so, by exploring the use of synergistic approaches between a variety of EO instruments. Given the importance of SMC in Earth's land surface interactions and to a large range of applications, one can appreciate that its accurate estimation is critical in addressing key scientific and practical challenges in today's world such as food security, sustainable planning and management of water resources. The launch of new, more sophisticated satellites strengthens the development of innovative research approaches and scientific inventions that will result in a range of pioneering and ground-breaking advancements in the retrievals of soil moisture from space.

  16. Fuzzy forecasting based on fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shyi-Ming; Wang, Nai-Yi

    2010-10-01

    In this paper, we present a new method to predict the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) based on fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups (FTLRGs). The proposed method divides fuzzy logical relationships into FTLRGs based on the trend of adjacent fuzzy sets appearing in the antecedents of fuzzy logical relationships. First, we apply an automatic clustering algorithm to cluster the historical data into intervals of different lengths. Then, we define fuzzy sets based on these intervals of different lengths. Then, the historical data are fuzzified into fuzzy sets to derive fuzzy logical relationships. Then, we divide the fuzzy logical relationships into FTLRGs for forecasting the TAIEX. Moreover, we also apply the proposed method to forecast the enrollments and the inventory demand, respectively. The experimental results show that the proposed method gets higher average forecasting accuracy rates than the existing methods.

  17. Simulations of historical and future trends in snowfall and groundwater recharge for basins draining to Long Island Sound

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerklie, David M.; Viger, Roland; Trombley, Thomas J.

    2011-01-01

    A regional watershed model was developed for watersheds contributing to Long Island Sound, including the Connecticut River basin. The study region covers approximately 40 900 km2, extending from a moderate coastal climate zone in the south to a mountainous northern New England climate zone dominated by snowmelt in the north. The input data indicate that precipitation and temperature have been increasing for the last 46 years (1961– 2006) across the region. Minimum temperature has increased more than maximum temperature over the same period (1961–2006). The model simulation indicates that there was an upward trend in groundwater recharge across most of the modeled region. However, trends in increasing precipitation and groundwater recharge are not significant at the 0.05 level if the drought of 1961–67 is removed from the time series. The trend in simulated snowfall is not significant across much of the region, although there is a significant downward trend in southeast Connecticut and in central Massachusetts. To simulate future trends, two input datasets, one assuming high carbon emissions and one assuming low carbon emissions, were developed from GCM forecasts. Under both of the carbon emission scenarios, simulations indicate that historical trends will continue, with increases in groundwater recharge over much of the region and substantial snowfall decreases across Massachusetts, Connecticut, southern Vermont, and southern New Hampshire. The increases in groundwater recharge and decreases in snowfall are most pronounced for the high emission scenario.

  18. A future of living machines?: International trends and prospects in biomimetic and biohybrid systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prescott, Tony J.; Lepora, Nathan; Vershure, Paul F. M. J.

    2014-03-01

    Research in the fields of biomimetic and biohybrid systems is developing at an accelerating rate. Biomimetics can be understood as the development of new technologies using principles abstracted from the study of biological systems, however, biomimetics can also be viewed from an alternate perspective as an important methodology for improving our understanding of the world we live in and of ourselves as biological organisms. A biohybrid entity comprises at least one artificial (engineered) component combined with a biological one. With technologies such as microscale mobile computing, prosthetics and implants, humankind is moving towards a more biohybrid future in which biomimetics helps us to engineer biocompatible technologies. This paper reviews recent progress in the development of biomimetic and biohybrid systems focusing particularly on technologies that emulate living organisms—living machines. Based on our recent bibliographic analysis [1] we examine how biomimetics is already creating life-like robots and identify some key unresolved challenges that constitute bottlenecks for the field. Drawing on our recent research in biomimetic mammalian robots, including humanoids, we review the future prospects for such machines and consider some of their likely impacts on society, including the existential risk of creating artifacts with significant autonomy that could come to match or exceed humankind in intelligence. We conclude that living machines are more likely to be a benefit than a threat but that we should also ensure that progress in biomimetics and biohybrid systems is made with broad societal consent.

  19. Iran`s petroleum policy: Current trends and the future outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pezeshki, S.; Fesharaki, F.

    1994-12-01

    The Iranian economy and political situation have undergone radical changes since the 1979 Islamic revolution. The excesses of the early years of the revolution have gradually given way to moderation and a more pragmatic economic policy--based on the principles of the free market. The petroleum policy, as a subset of the economic policies, has been somewhat affected by the political and economic developments in Iran. The petroleum policy has changed from a position of no foreign participation to a position that includes a desire for foreign participation, the text of a model contract, and an attempt to introduce new technologies in the upstream sector. This report provides an overview of the key issues facing the Iranian oil industry and the economic context in which the oil industry is operating in Iran. It describes the evolution of policies meant to move the oil industry toward the free market; it discusses Iran`s oil trading partners, the outlook for refining and project investments, and current and likely future developments in the natural gas and petrochemical sectors. In short, the report provides an up-to-date assessment of the Iranian petroleum sector and its likely evolution in the future.

  20. Mobile Device Trends in Orthopedic Surgery: Rapid Change and Future Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrawis, John P; Muzykewicz, David A; Franko, Orrin I

    2016-01-01

    Mobile devices are increasingly becoming integral communication and clinical tools. Monitoring the prevalence and utilization characteristics of surgeons and trainees is critical to understanding how these new technologies can be best used in practice. The authors conducted a prospective Internet-based survey over 7 time points from August 2010 to August 2014 at all nationwide American Council for Graduate Medical Education-accredited orthopedic programs. The survey questionnaire was designed to evaluate the use of devices and mobile applications (apps) among trainees and physicians in the clinical setting. Results were analyzed and summarized for orthopedic surgeons and trainees. During the 48-month period, there were 7 time points with 467, 622, 329, 223, 237, 111, and 134 responses. Mobile device use in the clinical setting increased across all fields and levels of training during the study period. Orthopedic trainees increased their use of Smartphone apps in the clinical setting from 60% to 84%, whereas attending use increased from 41% to 61%. During this time frame, use of Apple/Android platforms increased from 45%/13% to 85%/15%, respectively. At all time points, 70% of orthopedic surgeons believed their institution/hospital should support mobile device use. As measured over a 48-month period, mobile devices have become an ubiquitous tool in the clinical setting among orthopedic surgeons and trainees. The authors expect these trends to continue and encourage providers and trainees to be aware of the limitations and risks inherent with new technology.

  1. Two-Dimensional Nanomaterials for Biomedical Applications: Emerging Trends and Future Prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chimene, David; Alge, Daniel L; Gaharwar, Akhilesh K

    2015-12-02

    Two-dimensional (2D) nanomaterials are ultrathin nanomaterials with a high degree of anisotropy and chemical functionality. Research on 2D nanomaterials is still in its infancy, with the majority of research focusing on elucidating unique material characteristics and few reports focusing on biomedical applications of 2D nanomaterials. Nevertheless, recent rapid advances in 2D nanomaterials have raised important and exciting questions about their interactions with biological moieties. 2D nanoparticles such as carbon-based 2D materials, silicate clays, transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs), and transition metal oxides (TMOs) provide enhanced physical, chemical, and biological functionality owing to their uniform shapes, high surface-to-volume ratios, and surface charge. Here, we focus on state-of-the-art biomedical applications of 2D nanomaterials as well as recent developments that are shaping this emerging field. Specifically, we describe the unique characteristics that make 2D nanoparticles so valuable, as well as the biocompatibility framework that has been investigated so far. Finally, to both capture the growing trend of 2D nanomaterials for biomedical applications and to identify promising new research directions, we provide a critical evaluation of potential applications of recently developed 2D nanomaterials.

  2. The effects of energy paths and emission controls and standards on future trends in China's emissions of primary air pollutants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhao

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available To examine the efficacy of China's actions to control atmospheric pollution, three levels of growth of energy consumption and three levels of implementation of emission controls are estimated, generating a total of nine combined activity-emission control scenarios that are then used to estimate trends of national emissions of primary air pollutants through 2030. The emission control strategies are expected to have more effects than the energy paths on the future emission trends for all the concerned pollutants. As recently promulgated national action plans of air pollution prevention and control (NAPAPPC are implemented, China's anthropogenic pollutant emissions should decline. For example, the emissions of SO2, NOx, total primary particulate matter (PM, PM10, and PM2.5 are estimated to decline 7%, 20%, 41%, 34%, and 31% from 2010 to 2030, respectively, in the "best guess" scenario that includes national commitment of energy saving policy and partial implementation of NAPAPPC. Should the issued/proposed emission standards be fully achieved, a less likely scenario, annual emissions would be further reduced, ranging from 17% (for primary PM2.5 to 29% (for NOx declines in 2015, and the analogue numbers would be 12% and 24% in 2030. The uncertainties of emission projections result mainly from the uncertain operational conditions of swiftly proliferating air pollutant control devices and lack of detailed information about emission control plans by region. The predicted emission trends by sector and chemical species raise concerns about current pollution control strategies: the potential for emissions abatement in key sectors may be declining due to the near saturation of emission control devices use; risks of ecosystem acidification could rise because emissions of alkaline base cations may be declining faster than those of SO2; and radiative forcing could rise because emissions of positive-forcing carbonaceous aerosols may decline more slowly than

  3. Anti-HIV Drug Discovery and Development: Current Innovations and Future Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Peng; Pannecouque, Christophe; De Clercq, Erik; Liu, Xinyong

    2016-04-14

    The early effectiveness of combinatorial antiretroviral therapy (cART) in the treatment of HIV infection has been compromised to some extent by rapid development of multidrug-resistant HIV strains, poor bioavailability, and cumulative toxicities, and so there is a need for alternative strategies of antiretroviral drug discovery and additional therapeutic agents with novel action modes or targets. From this perspective, we first review current strategies of antiretroviral drug discovery and optimization, with the aid of selected examples from the recent literature. We highlight the development of phosphate ester-based prodrugs as a means to improve the aqueous solubility of HIV inhibitors, and the introduction of the substrate envelope hypothesis as a new approach for overcoming HIV drug resistance. Finally, we discuss future directions for research, including opportunities for exploitation of novel antiretroviral targets, and the strategy of activation of latent HIV reservoirs as a means to eradicate the virus.

  4. [Current trends and future perspectives in the therapy of the osteoporosis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cancilleri, F; Ippolito, M; Di Martino, A; Denaro, V

    2004-01-01

    Osteoporosis is a pathology of considerable social impact for its high frequency in the elderly and for serious complications of the fragility fracture. Osteoporosis prevention requires high bone mass peak during growth age, adult and elder people must limit the bone loss by taking specific daily behavior and nutritional measures. The pharmacological treatment is based on drugs which are able to change bone metabolism, among which the bisphosphonates result to have a good efficacy with few collateral effects, the last generation (Alendronate and Risedronate) may be taken once a week. Promising for the next future is the Recombinante Parathormon, recently approved from the Food and Drug Administration for osteoporosis treatment. Leptin and l'Osteoprogerin are new experimental molecules under study able to act on the mechanism of central and local regulation of bone remodeling.

  5. How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etkind, S N; Bone, A E; Gomes, B; Lovell, N; Evans, C J; Higginson, I J; Murtagh, F E M

    2017-05-18

    Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries. We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure. By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need. If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with

  6. Global River Nutrient Export: A Scenario Analysis of Past and Future Trends

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Seitzinger, S.P; Mayorga, E; Bouwman, A.F; Kroeze, C; Beusen, A.H.W; Billen, G; cht, van, G; Dumont, E.L; Fekete, B.M; Garnier, J; Harrison, J

    2010-01-01

    ...) and four future scenarios were analyzed. Differences among the scenarios for nutrient management in agriculture were a key factor affecting the magnitude and direction of change of future DIN river export...

  7. Echoes of the Past, Glimpses of the Future - Ongoing Trends in Assurance of EEE Parts for Spaceflight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, Michael J.

    2017-01-01

    This presentation will review some past NASA presentations that had identified challenges and future trends in the assurance of Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) parts for spaceflight applications. It will contrast the concerns expressed in those presentations with the challenges of today and identify trends that give insight into the future. Common themes include the use of commercial parts, limited technical and physical resources, the pace of technology change and the difficulties in handling and testing individual parts as they become smaller and more complex. Some options for dealing with these challenges will be suggested to accommodate increasing numbers of smallsats, cubesats, constellations and other disruptive concepts, as space becomes more and more commercialized.

  8. Psychiatric Brain Banking: Three Perspectives on Current Trends and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deep-Soboslay, Amy; Benes, Francine M.; Haroutunian, Vahram; Ellis, Justin K.; Kleinman, Joel E.; Hyde, Thomas M.

    2011-01-01

    Introduction The study of postmortem human brain tissue is central to the advancement of the neurobiological studies of psychiatric illness, particularly for the study of brain-specific isoforms and molecules. Methods The state-of-the-art methods and recommendations for maintaining a successful brain bank for psychiatric disorders are discussed, using the convergence of viewpoints from three brain collections, the National Institute of Mental Health Brain Collection (NIMH), the Harvard Brain Tissue Resource Center (HBTRC), and the Mt. Sinai School of Medicine Brain Bank (MSSM-BB), with diverse research interests and divergent approaches to tissue acquisition. Results While the NIMH obtains donations from medical examiners for its collection, and places particular emphasis on clinical diagnosis, toxicology, and building lifespan control cohorts, the HBTRC is uniquely designed as a repository whose sole purpose is to collect large-volume, high quality brain tissue from community-based donors based on relationships across an expansive nationwide network, and places emphasis on the accessibility of its bank in disseminating tissue and related data to research groups worldwide. The MSSM-BB collection has shown that, with dedication, prospective recruitment is a successful approach to tissue donation, and places particular emphasis on rigorous clinical diagnosis through antemortem contact with donors. The MSSM-BB places great importance on stereological tissue sampling methods for neuroanatomical studies, and frozen tissue sampling approaches that enable multiple assessments (RNA, DNA, protein, enzyme activity, binding, etc.) of the same tissue block. Promising scientific approaches for elucidating the molecular and cellular pathways in brain that may contribute to schizophrenia and/or bipolar disorder, such as cell culture techniques and microarray-based gene expression and genotyping studies are briefly discussed. Conclusions Despite unique perspectives from three

  9. Plastics, the environment and human health: current consensus and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Richard C; Moore, Charles J; vom Saal, Frederick S; Swan, Shanna H

    2009-07-27

    Plastics have transformed everyday life; usage is increasing and annual production is likely to exceed 300 million tonnes by 2010. In this concluding paper to the Theme Issue on Plastics, the Environment and Human Health, we synthesize current understanding of the benefits and concerns surrounding the use of plastics and look to future priorities, challenges and opportunities. It is evident that plastics bring many societal benefits and offer future technological and medical advances. However, concerns about usage and disposal are diverse and include accumulation of waste in landfills and in natural habitats, physical problems for wildlife resulting from ingestion or entanglement in plastic, the leaching of chemicals from plastic products and the potential for plastics to transfer chemicals to wildlife and humans. However, perhaps the most important overriding concern, which is implicit throughout this volume, is that our current usage is not sustainable. Around 4 per cent of world oil production is used as a feedstock to make plastics and a similar amount is used as energy in the process. Yet over a third of current production is used to make items of packaging, which are then rapidly discarded. Given our declining reserves of fossil fuels, and finite capacity for disposal of waste to landfill, this linear use of hydrocarbons, via packaging and other short-lived applications of plastic, is simply not sustainable. There are solutions, including material reduction, design for end-of-life recyclability, increased recycling capacity, development of bio-based feedstocks, strategies to reduce littering, the application of green chemistry life-cycle analyses and revised risk assessment approaches. Such measures will be most effective through the combined actions of the public, industry, scientists and policymakers. There is some urgency, as the quantity of plastics produced in the first 10 years of the current century is likely to approach the quantity produced in the

  10. Plastics, the environment and human health: current consensus and future trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Richard C.; Moore, Charles J.; vom Saal, Frederick S.; Swan, Shanna H.

    2009-01-01

    Plastics have transformed everyday life; usage is increasing and annual production is likely to exceed 300 million tonnes by 2010. In this concluding paper to the Theme Issue on Plastics, the Environment and Human Health, we synthesize current understanding of the benefits and concerns surrounding the use of plastics and look to future priorities, challenges and opportunities. It is evident that plastics bring many societal benefits and offer future technological and medical advances. However, concerns about usage and disposal are diverse and include accumulation of waste in landfills and in natural habitats, physical problems for wildlife resulting from ingestion or entanglement in plastic, the leaching of chemicals from plastic products and the potential for plastics to transfer chemicals to wildlife and humans. However, perhaps the most important overriding concern, which is implicit throughout this volume, is that our current usage is not sustainable. Around 4 per cent of world oil production is used as a feedstock to make plastics and a similar amount is used as energy in the process. Yet over a third of current production is used to make items of packaging, which are then rapidly discarded. Given our declining reserves of fossil fuels, and finite capacity for disposal of waste to landfill, this linear use of hydrocarbons, via packaging and other short-lived applications of plastic, is simply not sustainable. There are solutions, including material reduction, design for end-of-life recyclability, increased recycling capacity, development of bio-based feedstocks, strategies to reduce littering, the application of green chemistry life-cycle analyses and revised risk assessment approaches. Such measures will be most effective through the combined actions of the public, industry, scientists and policymakers. There is some urgency, as the quantity of plastics produced in the first 10 years of the current century is likely to approach the quantity produced in the

  11. Observed changes and future trends in vulnerability to natural hazards for mountain communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puissant, A.; Gazo, A.; Débonnaire, N.; Moravek, A.; Aguejdad, R.; -P., Malet J.; B., Martin

    2015-04-01

    Since 50 years, mountain areas are affected by important landcover and landuse changes characterized by the decrease of pastoral activities, reforestation or urbanization with the development of tourism activities and infrastructures. These natural and anthropogenic transformations have an impact on the socio-economic activities but also on the exposure of the communities to natural hazards. In the context of the ANR Project SAMCO which aims at enhancing the overall resilience of societies on the impacts of mountain risks, the objective of this research was to analyse landcover/use changes and to model future changes to assess the impacts of such change and to analyse trajectory of the vulnerability of mountain communities. For this research, an experiment is performed for two mountain areas of the French Alps (Barcelonnette Basin, Vars Basin). Changes in landcover and landuse are characterized over the period 1956-2010 for the two communities at two spatial scales (catchment, municipality). Four scenarios of landcover and landuse development (based on the Prelude European Project) are proposed for the period 2050 and 2100. Based on these scenarios, the evolution of vulnerability is estimated by using the Potential Damage Index method proposed by Puissant et al. (2013).

  12. Micro/nanoparticle adjuvants for antileishmanial vaccines: present and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badiee, Ali; Heravi Shargh, Vahid; Khamesipour, Ali; Jaafari, Mahmoud Reza

    2013-01-21

    Leishmania infection continues to have a major impact on public health inducing significant morbidity and mortality mostly in the poorest populations. Drug resistance, toxicity and side effects associated with expensive chemotherapeutic treatments and difficult reservoir control emphasize the need for a safe and effective vaccine which is not available yet. Although, Leishmanization (LZ) was shown to be effective against cutaneous leishmaniasis, standardization and safety are the main problems of LZ. First generation killed parasites demonstrated limited efficacy in phase 3 trials and moreover well defined molecules have not reached to phase 3 yet. Limited efficacy in vaccines against leishmaniasis is partly due to lack of an appropriate adjuvant. Hence, the use of particulate delivery systems as carriers for antigen and/or immunostimulatory adjuvants for effective delivery to the antigen-presenting cells (APCs) is a valuable strategy to enhance vaccine efficacies. Particle-based delivery systems such as emulsions, liposomes, virosomes, and polymeric microspheres have the potential for successfully delivering antigens, which can then be further improved via incorporation of additional antigenic or immustimulatory adjuvant components in or onto the particle carrier system. In this review, we have attempted to provide a list of particulate vaccine delivery systems involved in the production of candidate leishmaniasis vaccines and introduced some potentially useful vaccine delivery systems for leishmaniasis in future experiments. In conclusion, combination vaccines (adjuvant systems) composed of candidate antigens and more importantly well-developed particulate delivery systems, such as lipid-based particles containing immunostimulatory adjuvants, have a chance to succeed as antileishmanial vaccines.

  13. Genetic linkage mapping in fungi: current state, applications, and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulongne-Oriol, Marie

    2012-08-01

    Genetic mapping is a basic tool for eukaryotic genomic research. Linkage maps provide insights into genome organization and can be used for genetic studies of traits of interest. A genetic linkage map is a suitable support for the anchoring of whole genome sequences. It allows the localization of genes of interest or quantitative trait loci (QTL) and map-based cloning. While genetic mapping has been extensively used in plant or animal models, this discipline is more recent in fungi. The present article reviews the current status of genetic linkage map research in fungal species. The process of linkage mapping is detailed, from the development of mapping populations to the construction of the final linkage map, and illustrated based on practical examples. The range of specific applications in fungi is browsed, such as the mapping of virulence genes in pathogenic species or the mapping of agronomically relevant QTL in cultivated edible mushrooms. Future prospects are finally discussed in the context of the most recent advances in molecular techniques and the release of numerous fungal genome sequences.

  14. Sustainability of plant-based diets: back to the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabaté, Joan; Soret, Sam

    2014-07-01

    Plant-based diets in comparison to diets rich in animal products are more sustainable because they use many fewer natural resources and are less taxing on the environment. Given the global population explosion and increase in wealth, there is an increased demand for foods of animal origin. Environmental data are rapidly accumulating on the unsustainability of current worldwide food consumption practices that are high in meat and dairy products. Natural nonrenewable resources are becoming scarce, and environmental degradation is rapidly increasing. At the current trends of food consumption and environmental changes, food security and food sustainability are on a collision course. Changing course (to avoid the collision) will require extreme downward shifts in meat and dairy consumption by large segments of the world's population. Other approaches such as food waste reduction and precision agriculture and/or other technological advances have to be simultaneously pursued; however, they are insufficient to make the global food system sustainable. For millennia, meatless diets have been advocated on the basis of values, and large segments of the world population have thrived on plant-based diets. "Going back" to plant-based diets worldwide seems to be a reasonable alternative for a sustainable future. Policies in favor of the global adoption of plant-based diets will simultaneously optimize the food supply, health, environmental, and social justice outcomes for the world's population. Implementing such nutrition policy is perhaps one of the most rational and moral paths for a sustainable future of the human race and other living creatures of the biosphere that we share.

  15. Agreement between event-based and trend-based glaucoma progression analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, H L; Kumbar, T; Kumar, A U; Babu, J G; Senthil, S; Garudadri, C S

    2013-07-01

    To evaluate the agreement between event- and trend-based analyses to determine visual field (VF) progression in glaucoma. VFs of 175 glaucoma eyes with ≥5 VFs were analyzed by proprietary software of VF analyzer to determine progression. Agreement (κ) between trend-based analysis of VF index (VFI) and event-based analysis (glaucoma progression analysis, GPA) was evaluated. For eyes progressing by event- and trend-based methods, time to progression by two methods was calculated. Median number of VFs per eye was 7 and follow-up 7.5 years. GPA classified 101 eyes (57.7%) as stable, 30 eyes (17.1%) as possible and 44 eyes (25.2%) as likely progression. Trend-based analysis classified 122 eyes (69.7%) as stable (slope >-1% per year or any slope magnitude with P>0.05), 53 eyes (30.3%) as progressing with slope trend-based analysis was 0.48, and between specific criteria of GPA (possible clubbed with no progression) and trend-based analysis was 0.50. In eyes progressing by sensitive criteria of both methods (42 eyes), median time to progression by GPA (4.9 years) was similar (P=0.30) to trend-based method (5.0 years). This was also similar in eyes progressing by specific criteria of both methods (25 eyes; 5.6 years versus 5.9 years, P=0.23). Agreement between event- and trend-based progression analysis was moderate. GPA seemed to detect progression earlier than trend-based analysis, but this wasn't statistically significant.

  16. Passive BCI in Operational Environments: Insights, Recent Advances, and Future Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arico, Pietro; Borghini, Gianluca; Di Flumeri, Gianluca; Sciaraffa, Nicolina; Colosimo, Alfredo; Babiloni, Fabio

    2017-07-01

    This minireview aims to highlight recent important aspects to consider and evaluate when passive brain-computer interface (pBCI) systems would be developed and used in operational environments, and remarks future directions of their applications. Electroencephalography (EEG) based pBCI has become an important tool for real-time analysis of brain activity since it could potentially provide covertly-without distracting the user from the main task-and objectively-not affected by the subjective judgment of an observer or the user itself-information about the operator cognitive state. Different examples of pBCI applications in operational environments and new adaptive interface solutions have been presented and described. In addition, a general overview regarding the correct use of machine learning techniques (e.g., which algorithm to use, common pitfalls to avoid, etc.) in the pBCI field has been provided. Despite recent innovations on algorithms and neurotechnology, pBCI systems are not completely ready to enter the market yet, mainly due to limitations of the EEG electrodes technology, and algorithms reliability and capability in real settings. High complexity and safety critical systems (e.g., airplanes, ATM interfaces) should adapt their behaviors and functionality accordingly to the user' actual mental state. Thus, technologies (i.e., pBCIs) able to measure in real time the user's mental states would result very useful in such "high risk" environments to enhance human machine interaction, and so increase the overall safety.

  17. Trends that will affect your future ... The illness profit industry and national security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Stephan A

    2009-01-01

    The SchwartzReport tracks emerging trends that will affect the world, particularly the United States. For EXPLORE, it focuses on matters of health in the broadest sense of that term, including medical issues, changes in the biosphere, technology, and policy considerations, all of which will shape our culture and our lives.

  18. Faculty Development for Advancing Community Engagement in Higher Education: Current Trends and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, Marshall; Plaxton-Moore, Star

    2017-01-01

    This research involved the conduct of a conceptual review of 28 refereed journal articles and a survey of campus centers for community engagement staff to identify salient features and trends of existing faculty development programming designed to advance service-learning and community engagement in higher education. Results of this investigation…

  19. America's Future: Latino Child Well-Being in Numbers and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mather, Mark; Foxen, Patricia

    2010-01-01

    This data book offers a comprehensive overview of the state of Latino children by integrating a range of key factors and outcomes in the areas of demography, citizenship, family structure, poverty, health, education, and juvenile justice. It provides an overview of current national and state-level trends for Latino children under age 18 relative…

  20. Therapeutic antibodies: current state and future trends--is a paradigm change coming soon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitrov, Dimiter S; Marks, James D

    2009-01-01

    Antibody-based therapeutics currently enjoy unprecedented success, growth in research and revenues, and recognition of their potential. It appears that the promise of the "magic bullet" has largely been realized. There are currently 22 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for clinical use and hundreds are in clinical trials for treatment of various diseases including cancers, immune disorders, and infections. The revenues from the top five therapeutic antibodies (Rituxan, Remicade, Herceptin, Humira, and Avastin) nearly doubled from $6.4 billion in 2004 to $11.7 billion in 2006. During the last several years major pharmaceutical companies raced to acquire antibody companies, with a recent example of MedImmune being purchased for $15.6 billion by AstraZeneca. These therapeutic and business successes reflect the major advances in antibody engineering which have resulted in the generation of safe, specific, high-affinity, and non-immunogenic antibodies during the last three decades. Currently, second and third generations of antibodies are under development, mostly to improve already existing antibody specificities. However, although the refinement of already known methodologies is certainly of great importance for potential clinical use, there are no conceptually new developments in the last decade comparable, for example, to the development of antibody libraries, phage display, domain antibodies (dAbs), and antibody humanization to name a few. A fundamental question is then whether there will be another change in the paradigm of research as happened 1-2 decades ago or the current trend of gradual improvement of already developed methodologies and therapeutic antibodies will continue. Although any prediction could prove incorrect, it appears that conceptually new methodologies are needed to overcome the fundamental problems of drug (antibody) resistance due to genetic or/and epigenetic alterations in cancer and

  1. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

  2. Global Trends and the Future of Warfare 2025, Strategic Insights, Volume 10, Special Issue, October 2011

    OpenAIRE

    Moran, Daniel; Russell, James A.; Leavitt, Sandra; Kesler, Brent; Blanken, Ginger; Dearing, Matt

    2011-01-01

    Proceedings of a workshop conducted by the Department of National Security Affairs Center on Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, California, 17-18 May 2011 Sponsored by the Strategic Futures Group of the US National Intelligence Council

  3. Soil and Land Resources for Agricultural Production: General Trends and Future Scenarios-A Worldwide Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Winfried E.H. Blum

    2013-12-01

    Until 2050 global food production must be doubled for satisfying global needs. Our scenarios should help to preview future changes, to counterbalance and to mitigate possible negative impacts, thus sustaining global food security.

  4. Foreign Exchange Rate Futures Trends: Foreign Exchange Risk or Systematic Forecasting Errors?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Cunha Medeiros

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The forward exchange rate is widely used in international finance whenever the analysis of the expected depreciation is needed. It is also used to identify currency risk premium. The difference between the spot rate and the forward rate is supposed to be a predictor of the future movements of the spot rate. This prediction is hardly precise. The fact that the forward rate is a biased predictor of the future change in the spot rate can be attributed to a currency risk premium. The bias can also be attributed to systematic errors of the future depreciation of the currency. This paper analyzes the nature of the risk premium and of the prediction errors in using the forward rate. It will look into the efficiency and rationality of the futures market in Brazil from April 1995 to December 1998, a period of controled exchange rates.

  5. A Literature Investigation about Electrospinning and Nanofibers: Historical Trends, Current Status and Future Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nascimento, Marcio L F; Araújo, Evando S; Cordeiro, Erlon R; de Oliveira, Ariadne H P; de Oliveira, Helinando P

    2015-01-01

    The development of new fibrilar materials based on electrospinning (ES) technique has a notable history of nearly four centuries of discoveries and results. The eletrospinning manufacturing is one of the most widely reported methods for nanofiber (NF) manufacturing, providing security, high quality and productivity. In spite of the first patent about electrospinning has been applied in April 5(th), 1900 by John Francis Cooley, a historical perspective (since 1600s) about this amazing discovery represents an important step for future applications. Nanofibers have been considered one of the top interesting fundamental study objects for academicians, and greatest intriguing business materials for modern industry. As a consequence, lucrative organizations and companies have explored the relevance of nanofibers. In this paper, the quantity of published manuscripts and patent inventions is presented and the correlation of research activities to the production of new electrospinning materials is shown. China and the United States have been leading in electrospinning and nanofibers development. The company triumph is mostly dependent on applications improvement relevant for broader business society. A dramatic rise of interest in nanofibers produced by electrospinning technique has been confirmed due to the publication data, author's affiliation, keywords, and essential characterization procedures. Is has been shown that the number of publications on electrospinning and nanofibers researches from academic institutions is higher than industrial laboratories. More than 1,891 patents using the term "electrospinning" and 2,960 with the term "nanofibers" according to the European Patent Office at title or abstract have been filed around the world up to 2013. These numbers just continue to increase along with worldwide ES-related sales. Curiously, for the same period 11,973 electrospinning documents and 18,679 nanofibers-related (mainly manuscripts) were published considering

  6. Estimating the success of enzyme bioprospecting through metagenomics: current status and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrer, Manuel; Martínez-Martínez, Mónica; Bargiela, Rafael; Streit, Wolfgang R; Golyshina, Olga V; Golyshin, Peter N

    2016-01-01

    Recent reports have suggested that the establishment of industrially relevant enzyme collections from environmental genomes has become a routine procedure. Across the studies assessed, a mean number of approximately 44 active clones were obtained in an average size of approximately 53,000 clones tested using naïve screening protocols. This number could be significantly increased in shorter times when novel metagenome enzyme sequences obtained by direct sequencing are selected and subjected to high-throughput expression for subsequent production and characterization. The pre-screening of clone libraries by naïve screens followed by the pyrosequencing of the inserts allowed for a 106-fold increase in the success rate of identifying genes encoding enzymes of interest. However, a much longer time, usually on the order of years, is needed from the time of enzyme identification to the establishment of an industrial process. If the hit frequency for the identification of enzymes performing at high turnover rates under real application conditions could be increased while still covering a high natural diversity, the very expensive and time-consuming enzyme optimization phase would likely be significantly shortened. At this point, it is important to review the current knowledge about the success of fine-tuned naïve- and sequence-based screening protocols for enzyme selection and to describe the environments worldwide that have already been subjected to enzyme screen programmes through metagenomic tools. Here, we provide such estimations and suggest the current challenges and future actions needed before environmental enzymes can be successfully introduced into the market.

  7. Plastics, the environment and human health: current consensus and future trends

    OpenAIRE

    Richard C. Thompson; Moore, Charles J.; Frederick S Vom Saal; Swan, Shanna H.

    2009-01-01

    Plastics have transformed everyday life; usage is increasing and annual production is likely to exceed 300 million tonnes by 2010. In this concluding paper to the Theme Issue on Plastics, the Environment and Human Health, we synthesize current understanding of the benefits and concerns surrounding the use of plastics and look to future priorities, challenges and opportunities. It is evident that plastics bring many societal benefits and offer future technological and medical advances. However...

  8. Plastics, the environment and human health: current consensus and future trends

    OpenAIRE

    Thompson, Richard C.; Moore, Charles J.; vom Saal, Frederick S.; Swan, Shanna H.

    2009-01-01

    Plastics have transformed everyday life; usage is increasing and annual production is likely to exceed 300 million tonnes by 2010. In this concluding paper to the Theme Issue on Plastics, the Environment and Human Health, we synthesize current understanding of the benefits and concerns surrounding the use of plastics and look to future priorities, challenges and opportunities. It is evident that plastics bring many societal benefits and offer future technological and medical advances. However...

  9. MedDigital trends and tactics to lead into the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, D E; Toth, C L

    2001-01-01

    Physician executives need to harness appropriate digital technology by understanding key trends and implementing best tactics. Being and doing MedDigital means taking back control and improving care--and, at the same time, improving efficiencies and the bottom line. This article presents seven e-trends that are shaping health care: (1) Consumers and patients are pushing doctors to go digital; (2) from Web health information to MedDigital decision support; (3) beyond managed care to custom health; (4) wireless is the way of the new world; (5) Passive web portals yield to digital destinations; (6) e-commerce means lower transaction cost; and (7) develop e-health care ROI methodologies and track results. The authors provide myriad examples of new technology that will revolutionize health care and provide both physicians and consumers with valuable interactive tools to enhance health, treatment, and decision-making.

  10. The modern trends and experimental methods of training future specialists in the field of histrionic art

    OpenAIRE

    Julia Sergeevna Skvortsova

    2013-01-01

    This article reflects the specific ways of training specialists in the sphere of histrionic art, contemporary trends and special scientific experiments in the education of actors.We consider the traditional aspects of histrionic art specialists’ occupational fitness and modern requirements upon actor’s psycho-physical training.There also follows historical parallels in studying actor’s energy in the researches of K. Stanislavsky, M. Chekhov, T. Reebo, W. James, A. Maneggetty as well as in the...

  11. A comparison of heat wave climatologies and trends in China based on multiple definitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Qinglong; Jiang, Zhihong; Kong, Lei; Wu, Zhiwei; Bao, Yutao; Kang, Shichang; Pepin, Nick

    2016-08-01

    Heat waves (HWs) can have disastrous impacts on human activities and natural systems, and are one of the current foci of scientific research, particularly in the context of global warming. However, there is no standard definition of a HW, which makes assessment of temporal trends a challenge. In this study, based on daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature, and relative humidity datasets from China Meteorological Administration, the patterns, trends and variations of HW in China during 1961-2014 are investigated. Sixteen previously published HW indices (HIs) are calculated, which are divided into two types using relative and absolute threshold temperatures, respectively. During 1961-2014, both relative and absolute threshold HIs show the highest number of HW in Jianghua and South China, geographically consistent with the climate characteristics of China. The majority of HIs shows negative/positive trends of HW days before/after 1990 over the whole of China, but especially in Jianghua and South China, which reflects rapid warming since 1990. There are significant correlations among different HIs in the same type (both absolute and relative), but correlations are weak between relative and absolute threshold HIs. Because relative and absolute HIs show contrasting trends, the choice of HI is therefore critical for future analysis

  12. Sugar beet production in the European Union and their future trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Řezbová

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this paper is to analyze the yield (t/ha and the production costs of white (polarized sugar and sugar beet in the main European producer countries in order to identify main development trends. The partial objectives of this study are: to analyse the production costs (variable costs of sugar and sugar beet of the main European producers (France, Germany, Poland, United Kingdom, Czech Republic, to compare sugar beet yield of Tereos France and Tereos TTD a.s., to analyse sugar beet yield potential and their trends. The used methods are chain and basic indexes and regression analysis of time series/trend data - for predicting on next tree years. The main producers of sugar beet in the European Union (i.e. France, Germany, Poland, United Kingdom, and Czech Republic can not achieve goal of sugar yield 15t/ha while maintaining the amount of variable (direct costs at 15 EUR/tone of sugar beet in the business year 2015/2016. Pieces of knowledge introduced in this paper resulted from solution of an institutional research intention MSM 6046070906 „Economics of resources of Czech agriculture and their efficient use in frame of multifunctional agri-food systems“.

  13. Trends in hospital bed utilisation in New Zealand 1989 to 2006: more or less beds in the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malcolm, Laurence

    2007-10-26

    Reduction in hospital bed utilisation has been a key factor in controlling costs in recent decades in many health systems, including New Zealand's. This paper has the following aims: to analyse trends in hospital bed utilisation from 1988 to 2006; to examine variation between district health boards (DHBs); to consider factors which may explain the trends observed; to compare the results with international trends; and to discuss future need for beds and factors affecting this need, including the integrated DHB system. Ministry of Health Hospital Throughput reports for 1988/89 to 2005/06 were accessed and present standardised, filtered, and truncated data on discharges, average length of stay (ALOS), bed days, and DHB comparisons. Data on beds were also obtained from the Private Surgical Hospitals Association. Rates of utilisation were calculated using Statistics New Zealand and the Ministry of Health population data. Australian, UK, and US comparisons were obtained. The New Zealand data showed a continuing rise in discharge rates, especially case weighted. This was almost entirely due to the increase in day patients. There was a marked downward trend in bed day rates due to a more than 50% decline in the ALOS and a corresponding decline in bed availability. There was a marked variation between DHBs in standardised discharge ratios in 2005/06, with low rates indicating potential benchmarks to which higher utilisation DHBs might aspire. New Zealand was well ahead of both Australia and the UK National Health System (NHS) in reducing bed utilisation but comparisons with Kaiser Permanente indicated that DHBs could potentially, even dramatically, reduce bed utilisation through reducing admissions. The findings point to important progress in New Zealand in containing costs associated with hospital bed utilisation. Future strategies need to focus strongly on reducing hospital admissions through PHO action to provide community alternatives and chronic disease management.

  14. An interpretation of future research trends into vegetation and erosion interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osterkamp, W. R.; Hupp, C. R.

    2010-05-01

    The nature of future research relating erosion processes and vegetation cannot be confidently predicted but can be anticipated. Recognizing that erosion is not easily separated from processes of soil genesis, soil loss, and sediment movement and deposition, topics that may receive near-term attention are the interactive effects that vegetation and soil genesis exert on each other, the influence of water and sediment on bottomland vegetation, and the effects of possible climate change. These and other potential research topics and others are considered in terms of (1) vegetation as a control of erosion, (2) erosion as a control of vegetation, (3) vegetation as an agent of erosion, (4) vegetation as an agent of soil stability, and (5) combinations of the first four. Vegetation as a regulator of soil loss is likely to be emphasized in erosion-prediction modeling given the economic importance of minimizing erosion in agricultural areas. Present models include erosion control by plants of rainsplash impact, by vegetation roughness, and by root-soil cohesion dynamics. Currently model development is incorporating numerous vegetation data bases for croplands to relate soil loss and plant cover. Recent advances in model construction incorporate senescence dates for perennial plants, canopy height in forests, filter strips of native riparian trees to augment erosion-control methods, and algorithms to estimate root biomass. Other research topics may include the slowing of erosive floods by deeply rooted phreatophytes, reduction of erosion and channel migration by buried debris dams, the resistance to erosion by stems and root crowns of trees, and the effects on vegetation, thus erosion processes, by regional to global climate change. Studies of gravitational processes, such as soil creep and channel-bank retreat through mass wasting, that deliver much sediment to stream channels, may permit the abatement of riverine erosion. Erosion and sediment are also interactive controls

  15. Recent trends for practical rehabilitation robotics, current challenges and the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakub, Fitri; Md Khudzari, Ahmad Zahran; Mori, Yasuchika

    2014-03-01

    This paper presents and studies various selected literature primarily from conference proceedings, journals and clinical tests of the robotic, mechatronics, neurology and biomedical engineering of rehabilitation robotic systems. The present paper focuses of three main categories: types of rehabilitation robots, key technologies with current issues and future challenges. Literature on fundamental research with some examples from commercialized robots and new robot development projects related to rehabilitation are introduced. Most of the commercialized robots presented in this paper are well known especially to robotics engineers and scholars in the robotic field, but are less known to humanities scholars. The field of rehabilitation robot research is expanding; in light of this, some of the current issues and future challenges in rehabilitation robot engineering are recalled, examined and clarified with future directions. This paper is concluded with some recommendations with respect to rehabilitation robots.

  16. Past and future trends in concentrations of sulphur and nitrogen compounds in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hole, Lars R.; Christensen, Jesper H.; Ruoho-Airola, Tuija

    2009-01-01

    Recent trends in nitrogen and sulphur compounds in air and precipitation from a range of Arctic monitoring stations are presented, with seasonal data from the late 70s to 2004 or 2005. Earlier findings of declining sulphur concentrations are confirmed for most stations, while the pattern is less......-2000 is reasonably well reproduced at most stations using an Eulerian, hemispherical model. Results for nitrogen compounds are weaker. Scenario studies show that even if large sulphur emission reductions take place in important source regions in South-East Asia in the coming decades, only small changes in Arctic...

  17. Future role and significance of space activities in reflection of global social, technological and economic trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diekmann, Andreas; Richarz, Hans.-Peter

    The paper describes the interrelation of space activities and global socio-economic trends like "globalisation of markets" and "renaissance of fine arts". The interrelation reveals the economic strategic, technological and scientific dimension of space activities and their benefits to mankind. Then, the significance and perspectives of space activities in these dimensions are examined in more detail. The paper calls (1) for a more visible initiative to employ space activities to tackle urgent questions of global change and development, and (2) for a stronger impetus to secure European economic position in space sector as a key industry of the 21st century.

  18. A Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bragazzi NL

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Nicola Luigi Bragazzi DINOGMI, Department of Neuroscience, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health, Section of Psychiatry, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy Abstract: Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI is an intentional, direct, and socially unacceptable behavior resulting in the destruction of one's own body tissues with no intention of dying or committing suicide, even though it is associated with a higher risk of attempted, planned, or just considered suicide. In this preliminary report, we introduce the concept of “NSSI 2.0”; that is to say, the study of the Internet usage by subjects with NSSI, and we introduce a Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI, called NSSI infodemiology and infoveillance. Despite some limitations, Google Trends has already proven to be reliable for infectious diseases monitoring, and here we extend its application and potentiality in the field of suicidology. Ad hoc web portals and surveys could be designed in light of the reported results for helping people with NSSI. Keywords: infodemiology, infoveillance, Internet, non-suicidal self-injury

  19. Does Arts-Based Research Have a Future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisner, Elliot

    2006-01-01

    This article focuses on the future of arts-based research in education. The author contends that there are several features that need to be taken into account if arts-based educational research is to have a future. First, arts-based educational research needs to have a cadre of scholars committed to its exploration--individuals who regard…

  20. Lifelong Education for Older Adults in Malta: Current Trends and Future Visions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Formosa, Marvin

    2012-01-01

    With European demographic developments causing a decline of the available workforce in the foreseeable future and the unsustainability of dominant pay-as-you-go pension systems (where contributions from the current workforce sustain pensioners), governments need to come up with strategies to deal with this upcoming challenge and to adjust their…

  1. Future trends in urbanization and coastal water pollution in the Bay of Bengal: the lived experience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zinia, N.J.; Kroeze, C.

    2015-01-01

    The Bay of Bengal includes coastal seas of several countries, including Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar. We present scenarios for future river export of eutrophying nutrients into the Bay of Bengal, and the role of urbanization therein. We used NEWS (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model to analyze

  2. Business Education in Asia and Australasia: Recent Trends and Future Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kearney, Colm

    2013-01-01

    The globalization of business education is leading to convergence in the traditionally more diverse business curriculum. This can be seen by examining the mission and vision statements of Asia and Australasia's leading business schools, which emphasize the provision of quality learning and scholarship; educating future leaders; and contributing to…

  3. Business Education in Asia and Australasia: Recent Trends and Future Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kearney, Colm

    2013-01-01

    The globalization of business education is leading to convergence in the traditionally more diverse business curriculum. This can be seen by examining the mission and vision statements of Asia and Australasia's leading business schools, which emphasize the provision of quality learning and scholarship; educating future leaders; and contributing to…

  4. Renewable energy: past trends and future growth in 2 degrees scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crijns-Graus, Wina

    2016-01-01

    This study explores past growth rates of renewable energy sources (1971-2012) and required future ones in 2 degrees scenarios. Results show that in spite of comparatively high growth of renewable energy in the period 2000-2012, the share of renewable energy in total energy use stayed the same (13%).

  5. Renewable energy: past trends and future growth in 2 degrees scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crijns-Graus, Wina

    2016-01-01

    This study explores past growth rates of renewable energy sources (1971-2012) and required future ones in 2 degrees scenarios. Results show that in spite of comparatively high growth of renewable energy in the period 2000-2012, the share of renewable energy in total energy use stayed the same (13%).

  6. Rice yields and yield gaps in Southeast Asia: Past trends and future outlook

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laborte, A.G.; Bie, de C.A.J.M.; Smaling, E.M.A.; Moya, P.F.; Boling, A.A.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2012-01-01

    Rice production must increase to meet future food requirements amid strong competition for limited resources. Yield gap analysis is a useful method to examine how large the ranges are between potential, desirable rice yields and those actually realized in farmers’ fields. We analyzed farmers’ yields

  7. Success of a cervical cancer screening program: trends in incidence in songkhla, southern Thailand, 1989-2010, and prediction of future incidences to 2030.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriplung, Hutcha; Singkham, Phathai; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Jiraphongsa, Chuleeporn; Bilheem, Surichai

    2014-01-01

    Cervical cancer has been a leading female cancer in Thailand for decades, and has been second to breast cancer after 2007. The Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) has provided opportunistic screening with Pap smears for more than 30 years. In 2002, the MoPH and the National Health Security Office provided countrywide systematic screening of cervical cancer to all Thai women aged 35-60 years under universal health care coverage insurance scheme at 5-year intervals. This study characterized the cervical cancer incidence trends in Songkhla in southern Thailand using joinpoint and age period cohort (APC) analysis to observe the effect of cervical cancer screening activities in the past decades, and to project cervical cancer rates in the province, to 2030. Invasive and in situ cervical cancer cases were extracted from the Songkhla Cancer Registry from 1990 through 2010. Age standardized incidence rates were estimated. Trends in incidences were evaluated by joinpoint and APC regression models. The Norpred package was modified for R and was used to project the future trends to 2030 using the power of 5 function and cut trend method. Cervical cancer incidence in Songkhla peaked around 1998-2000 and then dropped by -4.7% per year. APC analysis demonstrated that in situ tumors caused an increase in incidence in early ages, younger cohorts, and in later years of diagnosis. Both joinpoint and APC analysis give the same conclusion in continuation of a declining trend of cervical cancer to 2030 but with different rates and the predicted goal of ASR below 10 or even 5 per 100,000 women by 2030 would be achieved. Thus, maintenance and improvement of the screening program should be continued. Other population based cancer registries in Thailand should analyze their data to confirm the success of cervical cancer screening policy of Thailand.

  8. An Investigation of Summertime Inland Water Body Temperatures in California and Nevada (USA): Recent Trends and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healey, Nathan; Hook, Simon; Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Toffolon, Marco; Radocinski, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Inland water body temperature has been identified as an ideal indicator of potential climate change. Understanding inland water body temperature trends is important for forecasting impacts to limnological, biological, and hydrological resources. Many inland water bodies are situated in remote locations with incomplete data records of in-situ monitoring or lack in-situ observations altogether. Thus, the utilization of satellite data is essential for understanding the behavior of global inland water body temperatures. Part of this research provides an analysis of summertime (July-September) temperature trends in the largest California/Nevada (USA) inland water bodies between 1991 and 2015. We examine satellite temperature retrievals from ATSR (ATSR-1, ATSR-2, AATSR), MODIS (Terra and Aqua), and VIIRS sensors. Our findings indicate that inland water body temperatures in the western United States were rapidly warming between 1991 and 2009, but since then trends have been decreasing. This research also includes implementation of a model called air2water to predict future inland water body surface temperature through the sole input of air temperature. Using projections from CMIP5-CCSM4 output, our model indicates that Lake Tahoe (USA) is expected to experience an increase of roughly 3 °C by 2100.

  9. A global perspective on trends in nature-based tourism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balmford, Andrew; Beresford, James; Green, Jonathan; Naidoo, Robin; Walpole, Matt; Manica, Andrea

    2009-06-30

    Reports of rapid growth in nature-based tourism and recreation add significant weight to the economic case for biodiversity conservation but seem to contradict widely voiced concerns that people are becoming increasingly isolated from nature. This apparent paradox has been highlighted by a recent study showing that on a per capita basis, visits to natural areas in the United States and Japan have declined over the last two decades. These results have been cited as evidence of "a fundamental and pervasive shift away from nature-based recreation"-but how widespread is this phenomenon? We address this question by looking at temporal trends in visitor numbers at 280 protected areas (PAs) from 20 countries. This more geographically representative dataset shows that while PA visitation (whether measured as total or per capita visit numbers) is indeed declining in the United States and Japan, it is generally increasing elsewhere. Total visit numbers are growing in 15 of the 20 countries for which we could get data, with the median national rate of change unrelated to the national rate of population growth but negatively associated with wealth. Reasons for this reversal of growth in the richest countries are difficult to pin down with existing data, but the pattern is mirrored by trends in international tourist arrivals as a whole and so may not necessarily be caused by disaffection with nature. Irrespective of the explanation, it is clear that despite important downturns in some countries, nature-related tourism is far from declining everywhere, and may still have considerable potential both to generate funds for conservation and to shape people's attitudes to the environment.

  10. [Genetically modified food (food derived from biotechnology): current and future trends in public acceptance and safety assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiura, Hiroshi; Imai, Hirohisa; Nakao, Hiroyuki; Tsukino, Hiromasa; Kuroda, Yoshiki; Katoh, Takahiko

    2002-11-01

    Current and future trends regarding genetically modified (GM) crops and food stuffs were reviewed, with a particular focus on public acceptance and safety assessment. While GM foods, foods derived from biotechnology, are popular with growers and producers, they are still a matter of some concern among consumers. In fact, our recent surveys showed that Japanese consumers had become uneasy about the potential health risks of genetically modified foods. Many Japanese consumers have only vague ideas about the actual health risks, and they appear to be making decisions simply by rejecting GM food because of non-informed doubts. Although the debate about GM foods has increased in the mass media and scientific journals, few articles concerning direct studies on the potential toxicity or adverse health effects of GM foods have appeared. The roles of relevant international regulatory bodies in ensuring that GM crops and food are safe are therefore have summarized. Finally, the current debate on use of GM crops in agriculture and future trends for development of GM foods with enriched nutrients, better functionality, and medicinal ingredients, which will be of direct benefit to the consumer, are covered.

  11. An overview of RDF processing systems: Current status, design features, and future trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ohlsson, O.O. (Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)); Walter, D.K. (USDOE Assistant Secretary for Conservation and Renewable Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Waste Material Management Div.); Goodman, B.J. (Solar Energy Research Inst., Golden, CO (United States))

    1991-01-01

    This paper discusses the recent history of refuse-derived fuel (RDF) processing facilities in the United States. The current status of these facilities, including environmental, institutional, and economic considerations is discussed. The unit operations used to produce a desired RDF product are described, and the future potential of RDF processing systems is evaluated. Current research sponsored by the US Department of Energy is also presented. 6 refs., 3 figs., 8 tabs.

  12. Design Rework Prediction in Concurrent Design Environment: Current Trends and Future Research Directions

    OpenAIRE

    Arundachawat, Panumas; Roy, Rajkumar; Al-Ashaab, Ahmed; Shehab, Essam

    2009-01-01

    This paper aims to present state-of-the-art and formulate future research areas on design rework in concurrent design environment. Related literatures are analysed to extract the key factors which impact design rework. Design rework occurs due to changes from upstream design activities and/or by feedbacks from downstream design activities. Design rework is considered as negative iteration; therefore, value in design activities will be increased if design rework is reduced. Set-bas...

  13. Foreign Military Sales Trend Analysis: Impacts on the Future with Application to Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-06-01

    Future with Application to Taiwan By: Kevin L. Moore, Chih-Haur Ho, Coleen A. Foust , and Aidas Kerutis June 2007... Foust and Aidas Kerutis 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5000...TAIWAN Kevin L. Moore, Major, United States Army Chih-Haur Ho, Major, Republic of China Army Coleen A. Foust , Captain, United States Air Force

  14. Pricing Data: A Look at Past Proposals, Current Plans, and Future Trends

    CERN Document Server

    Sen, Soumya; Ha, Sangtae; Chiang, Mung

    2012-01-01

    Traditionally, network operators have only used simple flat-rate unlimited data plans to vie for customers. But today, with the popularity of mobile devices and exponential growth of apps, videos, and clouds, service providers are gradually moving towards more sophisticated pricing schemes, including dynamic pricing. This decade will therefore likely witness a major shift in network pricing schemes. However, there are several unique challenges with the dynamic pricing of mobile data, including new system requirements and social adoption. This paper reviews some of the well known past pricing proposals (both static and dynamic), their current realization in various data plans, and new research directions. Unlike a traditional survey, this work is an attempt to explore benefits and challenges of pricing plans that are currently being used by ISPs in different parts of the world so as to facilitate the networking community's efforts in recognizing trends and shaping an appropriate research agenda.

  15. Temporal Trends and Future Predictions of Mercury Concentrations in Northwest Greenland Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) Hair

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dietz, Rune; Born, E.W.; Riget, Frank Farsø

    2011-01-01

    Hair samples from 117 Northwest Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were taken during 1892-2008 and analyzed for total mercury (hereafterHg). The sample represented 28 independent years and the aim of the study was to analyze for temporal Hg trends. Mercury concentrations showed yearly...... significant increases of 1.6-1.7% (p bear......-2008 concentrations ofHg in Northwest Greenland polar bear hair exceeded the general guideline values of 20-30 μg/g dry weight for terrestrial wildlife, whereas the neurochemical effect level of 5.4 μg Hg/g dry weight proposed for East Greenland polar bears was exceeded in 93.5% of the cases. These results call...

  16. Nanotechnology in automotive industry: research strategy and trends for the future-small objects, big impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, Margarida C; Torrão, Guilhermina; Emami, Nazanin; Grácio, José

    2012-08-01

    The goal of this paper is to emphasize and present briefly the nanotechnology science and its potential impact on the automotive industry in order to improve the production of recent models with an optimization of the safety performance and a reduction in the environmental impacts. Nanomaterials can be applied in car bodies as light weight constructions without compromising the stiffness and crashwortiness, which means less material and less fuel consumption. This paper outlines the progress of nanotechnology applications into the safety features of more recent vehicle models and fuel efficiency, but also emphasis the importance of sustainable development on the application of these technologies and life cycle analysis of the considered materials, in order to meet the society trends and customers demands to improve ecology, safety and comfort.

  17. Trends in Flow-based Biosensing Systems for Pesticide Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Louis Marty

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available This review gives a survey on the state of the art of pesticide detection usingflow-based biosensing systems for sample screening. Although immunosensor systems havebeen proposed as powerful pesticide monitoring tools, this review is mainly focused onenzyme-based biosensors, as they are the most commonly employed when using a flowsystem. Among the different detection methods able to be integrated into flow-injectionanalysis (FIA systems, the electrochemical ones will be treated in more detail, due to theirhigh sensitivity, simple sample pretreatment, easy operational procedures and real-timedetection. During the last decade, new trends have been emerging in order to increase theenzyme stability, the sensitivity and selectivity of the measurements, and to lower thedetection limits. These approaches are based on (i the design of novel matrices for enzymeimmobilisation, (ii new manifold configurations of the FIA system, sometimes includingminiaturisation or lab-on-chip protocols thanks to micromachining technology, (iii the useof cholinesterase enzymes either from various commercial sources or genetically modifiedwith the aim of being more sensitive, (iv the incorporation of other highly specificenzymes, such as organophosphate hydrolase (OPH or parathion hydrolase (PH and (v thecombination of different electrochemical methods of detection. This article discusses thesenovel strategies and their advantages and limitations.

  18. Current usage and future trends in gross digital photography in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horn, Christopher L; DeKoning, Lawrence; Klonowski, Paul; Naugler, Christopher

    2014-01-14

    The purpose of this study was to assess the current usage, utilization and future direction of digital photography of gross surgical specimens in pathology laboratories across Canada. An online survey consisting of 23 multiple choice and free-text questions regarding gross digital photography was sent out to via email to laboratory staff across Canada involved in gross dissection of surgical specimens. Sixty surveys were returned with representation from most of the provinces. Results showed that gross digital photography is utilized at most institutions (90.0%) and the primary users of the technology are Pathologists (88.0%), Pathologists' Assistants (54.0%) and Pathology residents (50.0%). Most respondents felt that there is a definite need for routine digital imaging of gross surgical specimens in their practice (80.0%). The top two applications for gross digital photography are for documentation of interesting/ complex cases (98.0%) and for teaching purposes (84.0%). The main limitations identified by the survey group are storage space (42.5%) and security issues (40.0%). Respondents indicated that future applications of gross digital photography mostly include teaching (96.6%), presentation at tumour boards/ clinical rounds (89.8%), medico-legal documentation (72.9%) and usage for consultation purposes (69.5%). The results of this survey indicate that pathology staff across Canada currently utilizes gross digital images for regular documentation and educational reasons. They also show that the technology will be needed for future applications in teaching, consultation and medico-legal purposes.

  19. Past and future trends of hydroclimatic intensity over the Indian monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, T. S.; Rajeevan, M.

    2017-01-01

    The hydroclimatic intensity index (HY-INT) is a single index that quantitatively combines measures of precipitation intensity and dry spell length, thus providing an integrated response of the hydrological cycle to global warming. The HY-INT index is a product of the precipitation intensity (PINT, intensity during wet days) and dry spell length (DSL). Using the observed gridded rainfall data sets of 1951-2010 period, the changes in HY-INT, PINT, and DSL over the Indian monsoon region have been examined in addition to changes in maximum consecutive dry days (MCD). We have also considered 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models for examining the changes in these indices during the present-day and future climate change scenarios. For climate change projections, the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario was considered. The analysis of observational data during the period 1951-2010 suggested an increase in DSL and MCD over most of central India. Further, statistically significant (95% level) increase in HY-INT is also noted during the period of 1951-2010, which is mainly caused due to significant increase in precipitation intensity. The CMIP5 model projections of future climate also suggest a statistically significant increase in HY-INT over the Indian region. Out of the 10 models considered, seven models suggest a consistent increase in HY-INT during the period of 2010-2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the projected increase in HY-INT is mainly due to increase in the precipitation intensity, while dry spell length (DSL) showed little changes in the future climate.

  20. The Virtual Manufacturing concept: Scope, Socio-Economic Aspects and Future Trends

    CERN Document Server

    Chablat, Damien; Noël, Eric; Woelk, Peer-Oliver

    2007-01-01

    The research area "Virtual Manufacturing (VM)'' is the use of information technology and computer simulation to model real world manufacturing processes for the purpose of analysing and understanding them. As automation technologies such as CAD/CAM have substantially shortened the time required to design products, Virtual Manufacturing will have a similar effect on the manufacturing phase thanks to the modelling, simulation and optimisation of the product and the processes involved in its fabrication. After a description of Virtual Manufacturing (definitions and scope), we present some socio-economic factors of VM and finaly some "hot topics'' for the future are proposed.

  1. Current Situations and Future Development Trend of Farmland Pre-warning Researches in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yongqi; JIANG; Xiangli; WU

    2014-01-01

    This paper summarized theory discussion,main research methods,contents,empirical and engineering researches of farmland prewarning in China.It stated that future researches of farmland pre-warning in China will focus on deepening application of farmland security prewarning models,revealing mechanism of changes in different farmland resources,establishing pre-warning models suitable for research areas,accurate evaluation and prediction of farmland security,and exploring establishing and improving farmland security monitoring system and operating mechanism of all levels.

  2. Exploring the Current Trends and Future Prospects in Terrorist Network Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nisha Chaurasia

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In today’s era of hi-tech technologies, criminals are easily fulfilling their inhuman goals against the mankind. Thus, the security of civilians has significantly become important. In this regard, the law-enforcement agencies are aiming to prevent future attacks. To do so, the terrorist networks are being analyzed using data mining techniques. One such technique is Social network analysis which studies terrorist networks for the identification of relationships and associations that may exist between terrorist nodes. Terrorist activities can also be detected by means of analyzing Web traffic content. This paper studies social network analysis, web traffic content and explores various ways for identifying terrorist activities.

  3. Modelled present and future thaw lake area expansion/contraction trends throughout the continuous permafrost zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Mi

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Thaw lakes and drained lake basins are a dominant feature of Arctic lowlands. Thaw lakes are a source of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4, which is produced under anaerobic conditions, while drained lake basins are carbon sinks due to sedimentation. Besides feedbacks on climate, the development of thaw lakes due to the melt-out of ground ice and subsequent ground subsidence, can have significant impacts on the regional morphology, hydrology, geophysics and biogehemistry. Permafrost degradation as a result of climate warming, which is proceeding considerably faster in high latitude regions than the global average, could lead to either an increases in lake area due to lake expansion, or decrease due to lake drainage. However, which process will dominate is elusive. Therefore understanding thaw lake dynamics and quantifying the feedbacks related to thaw lake expansion and contraction are urgent questions to solve. We apply a stochastic model, THAWLAKE, on four representative Arctic sites, to reproduce recent lake dynamics (1963–2012 and predict for the future changes under various anticipated climate scenarios. The model simulations of current thaw lake cycles and expansion rates are comparable with data. Future lake expansions are limited by lake drainage. We suggest further improvements in the area of enhancing the hydrology component, and operation on larger scales to gauge the impacts on lacustrine morphology and greenhouse gas emissions.

  4. ANALYSIS OF CURRENT STATE AND FUTURE TRENDS OF AUTO PARTS MANUFACTURING SECTOR IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANIELA MIHAI

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In the economy of any country, the auto parts manufacturing sector holds an important percentage in the national automotive industry. The dynamics of sales within it can vary significantly on short term, depending on the automotive market trend. This is also the case of the current situation in Romania, where the effect of the regressive automotive sales evolution will propagate, most probably, with a significant delay for the companies involved in production and trade of auto parts (for both first-assembly manufacture and car maintenance and repair. The statistical data indicate that even though the total volume of vehicles delivered decreased with 7.4% in 2011 as compared to 2010, the total turnover of the companies in the automotive industry increased with 7.8%. The apparent paradox is explained in the present article through the particularities of the demand for spare parts intended for the rolling stock in operation and through the effective organization of the distribution system.

  5. High Override Rate for Opioid Drug-allergy Interaction Alerts: Current Trends and Recommendations for Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topaz, Maxim; Seger, Diane L; Lai, Kenneth; Wickner, Paige G; Goss, Foster; Dhopeshwarkar, Neil; Chang, Frank; Bates, David W; Zhou, Li

    2015-01-01

    This study examined trends in drug-allergy interaction (DAI) alert overrides for opioid medications - the most commonly triggered alerts in the computerized provider order entry (CPOE). We conducted an observational analysis of the DAI opioid alerts triggered over the last decade (2004-2013, n=342,338) in two large academic hospitals in Boston (United States). We found an increasing rate of DAI alert overrides culminating in 89.7% in 2013. Allergic reactions included a high proportion (38.2%) of non-immune mediated opioid reactions (e.g. gastrointestinal upset). The DAI alert override rate was high for immune mediated (88.6%) and life threatening reactions (87.8%). Exact allergy-medication matches were overridden less frequently (about 70%) compared to non-exact matches within allergy groups (over 90%). About one-third of the alert override reasons pointed to irrelevant alerts (i.e."Patient has tolerated the medication before") and 44.9% were unknown. Those findings warrant further investigation into providers' reasons for high override rate. User interfaces should evolve to enable less interruptive and more accurate alerts to decrease alert fatigue.

  6. Criminal Law in Nigeria in the Last 53 Years: Trends and Prospects for the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akeem Olajide Bello

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The article is an overview of developments in substantive criminal law in Nigeria in the last 53 years. It examines the sharing of constitutional legislative powers to enact criminal laws between the federal (national government and the state (local governments. The examination of federal laws revealed proactive legislative activity responding to emerging local and international criminal law issues. The main development at the state level is the introduction by States in Northern Nigeria of Sharia Penal Codes and the enactment of the Criminal Law of Lagos State 2011. A common trend is the entrenchment of death penalty as punishment for some crimes. Implications: While federal criminal laws have responded to emerging realties, state criminal laws have generally failed to respond to emerging issues at the state level. Consequently, in most of the southern states criminal laws introduced in 1916 have continued to apply. Value: The paper demonstrates the need for southern States to reform their criminal laws to respond to emerging realties, the federal government to respond to some outstanding criminal law issues and calls for a suspension of death penalty and a revaluation of its continued relevance.

  7. Family-based dispatching : anticipating future jobs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nomden, G.; van der Zee, D.J.; Slomp, J.

    2008-01-01

    Group Technology exploits similarities in product and process design to meet the diversity of customer demand in an economic way. In this paper we consider one of the implementations of this concept - family-based dispatching. Intrinsic to family-based dispatching is the grouping of similar types of

  8. 无线通信技术的发展历程与趋势%The Wireless Communication Review of Developments and Future Trends

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴淘锁; 邬海峰

    2015-01-01

    The wireless communication is one of the rapid developing technology in modern communication industry. Especially in recent decade, products of the wireless communication had a huge impact on people's daily life. To grasp the evolution characteristics and the future trends, it is extremely meaningful to investigate and analyze the developments history of the wireless communication. Thus, based on the case of mobile communication, this paper studies the development of the wireless communication technology in detail, and forecasts its future trends.%无线通信是现代通信产业变革最快的技术之一,特别是最近十余年的蓬勃发展,无线通信产品给人们的日常生活带来了了巨大的便利.研究无线通信技术的发展历程,将有助于把握该技术的变革特点和未来发展趋势,具有极其重要的意义.因此,本文以移动通信为例,对无线通信技术的发展历程进行了详细分析,探讨并展望了未来的发展趋势和方向.

  9. Inequality trends in health and future health risk among English children and young people, 1999-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hargreaves, Dougal S; Djafari Marbini, Aghileh; Viner, Russell M

    2013-11-01

    To investigate trends in health inequality among children and young people between 1999 and 2009, using outcomes consistent with the current NHS reforms. Secondary analysis of participants aged 0-24 in the Health Surveys for England (HSE) undertaken in 1999, 2004, 2006 and 2009. Changes in the absolute and relative risks of four health outcomes by deprivation tertiles, based on occupation of the head of household: self/parent-reported general health; presence of a long-standing illness (LSI); obesity; smoking. No indicator showed a reduction in relative or absolute inequality between 1999 and 2009. For children (0-12 years), the relative risk comparing the most and least deprived tertiles increased significantly for poor general health (1999:1.6 (95% CI 1.2 to 2.2); 2009:3.9 (2.4 to 6.2), while the absolute difference in LSI prevalence(%) increased from 1.3 (-2.9 to 5.5) to 7.4 (3.6 to 11.4). Among young people (13-24 years), the absolute difference in LSI prevalence increased from -5.9 (-10.9 to -1.1) to 3.1 (-4.1 to 10.7). Absolute inequality in having tried smoking among children aged 8-15(%) increased significantly in the first half of the decade before decreasing in the second half (1999:3.3 (-1.1 to 7.7); 2004:14.1 (9.6 to 18.8); 2009:4.1 (0.1 to 8.8)). However, the increase in absolute inequality for smoking prevalence among young adults (16-24 years) was maintained throughout the decade (1999:-7.0 (-15.6 to 1.3); 2004:11.6 (3.7 to 20.0); 2009:8.2 (-0.3 to 16.9)). The national programme between 1999 and 2009 was not successful in reducing inequality in four key indicators of health status and future health risk among children and young people. Some inequality measures for general health, LSI prevalence and smoking increased over this time.

  10. Event visualisation in ATLAS: current software technologies, future prospects and trends

    CERN Document Server

    Bianchi, Riccardo-Maria; The ATLAS collaboration; Moyse, Edward

    2016-01-01

    At the beginning, HEP experiments made use of photographical images both to record and store experimental data and to illustrate their findings. Then the experiments evolved and needed to find ways to visualize their data. With the availability of computer graphics, software packages to display event data and the detector geometry started to be developed. Here a brief history of event displays is presented, with an overview of the different event display tools used today in HEP experiments in general, and in the LHC experiments in particular. Then the case of the ATLAS experiment is considered in more detail and two widely used event display packages are presented, Atlantis and VP1, focusing on the software technologies they employ, as well as their strengths, differences and their usage in the experiment: from physics analysis to detector development, and from online monitoring to outreach and communication. Future development plans and improvements in the ATLAS event display packages will also be discussed,...

  11. Food security and marine capture fisheries: characteristics, trends, drivers and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Serge M; Rosenberg, Andrew A

    2010-09-27

    World population is expected to grow from the present 6.8 billion people to about 9 billion by 2050. The growing need for nutritious and healthy food will increase the demand for fisheries products from marine sources, whose productivity is already highly stressed by excessive fishing pressure, growing organic pollution, toxic contamination, coastal degradation and climate change. Looking towards 2050, the question is how fisheries governance, and the national and international policy and legal frameworks within which it is nested, will ensure a sustainable harvest, maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functions, and adapt to climate change. This paper looks at global fisheries production, the state of resources, contribution to food security and governance. It describes the main changes affecting the sector, including geographical expansion, fishing capacity-building, natural variability, environmental degradation and climate change. It identifies drivers and future challenges, while suggesting how new science, policies and interventions could best address those challenges.

  12. Nursing and information and communication technology (ICT): a discussion of trends and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    While, Alison; Dewsbury, Guy

    2011-10-01

    This paper traces the development of information and communication (ICT) within health care and the emergence of telehealth as a key component of modern health care delivery as health care moves from the 'face to face age' to the 'information age'. The paper examines the interface of ICT and nursing practice and highlights the limited evidence relating to the nursing contribution within telehealth particularly beyond data input and output analysis for other health care personnel. Additionally, the absence of research relating to the impact of ICT upon nurses and their working lives is identified. The paper concludes that nurses need to engage more fully with ICT so that they contribute to shaping the care system and emerge as leaders of the new care systems delivering future clinical activity. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Antibiotic discovery in the twenty-first century: current trends and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donadio, Stefano; Maffioli, Sonia; Monciardini, Paolo; Sosio, Margherita; Jabes, Daniela

    2010-08-01

    New antibiotics are necessary to treat microbial pathogens that are becoming increasingly resistant to available treatment. Despite the medical need, the number of newly approved drugs continues to decline. We offer an overview of the pipeline for new antibiotics at different stages, from compounds in clinical development to newly discovered chemical classes. Consistent with historical data, the majority of antibiotics under clinical development are natural products or derivatives thereof. However, many of them also represent improved variants of marketed compounds, with the consequent risk of being only partially effective against the prevailing resistance mechanisms. In the discovery arena, instead, compounds with promising activities have been obtained from microbial sources and from chemical modification of antibiotic classes other than those in clinical use. Furthermore, new natural product scaffolds have also been discovered by ingenious screening programs. After providing selected examples, we offer our view on the future of antibiotic discovery.

  14. Population trends and developments in Kermanshah during 1966-2011, and its future prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masood Safari Ali Akbari

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Cities and urbanization in the last decades, it has undergone enormous changes, so that in recent decades, the number of urban and spatial development, the scale is unprecedented. City of Kermanshah, in center of Kermanshah Province, not far from these developments, and according to geographical location (the center of the West Country, and its relationship to the West direction - south, in recent decades, population increases have been high.  This paper aims to examine population changes Kermanshah, ( during the years 1966 to, 2011 was performed in addition to analyzing the process of transformation, and to recognize the causes and contributing factors in the current situation, a better understanding can be reached, as appropriate, plan for the future, be provided.

  15. THE MODERN TRENDS AND EXPERIMENTAL METHODS OF TRAINING FUTURE SPECIALISTS IN THE FIELD OF HISTRIONIC ART

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Sergeevna Skvortsova

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This article reflects the specific ways of training specialists in the sphere of histrionic art, contemporary trends and special scientific experiments in the education of actors.We consider the traditional aspects of histrionic art specialists’ occupational fitness and modern requirements upon actor’s psycho-physical training.There also follows historical parallels in studying actor’s energy in the researches of K. Stanislavsky, M. Chekhov, T. Reebo, W. James, A. Maneggetty as well as in the modern researches of L. Gracheva.And there was proved the reason for including some Yoga elements and Academician M.Norbecov’s exercises system into the actors training practice.In the article Yoga for actors considers as a system of emotional and physical preparation to the artistic creative work, as a method of self-control that let an actor be really deep in his creative condition.There also was described an advantageous result of applying at our experimental laboratory of actors Yoga classes some exercises that reveal connection of person’s carriage and his condition in the process of working on the outward demonstration of this or that emotion in order to create appropriate inner state.Object: Studying the influence on the productivity of actors’ professional education of the Yoga elements included into the actors’ psycho-technique practice training.Methods: theoretical, experimental and observational methods of research.Results: After using these methods during the classes the rate of student’s psycho-physical APPARATUS has extremely increased.The area of application: the educational process at artistic creative high schools.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-7-52

  16. Future Employment Opportunities for US Geoscience Graduates - a View From Historical Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keane, C. M.; Milling, M. E.

    2005-12-01

    The geosciences in the United States has experienced a number of major booms and busts, but today has become, as a discipline, less dependent on the immediate fortunes of the natural resources industries. However, the actual employment distribution has not changed substantially in the last fifteen years, with the petroleum industry remaining by and far the single largest employer of geoscientists in the United States, and even more as a level of contributing to GNP. However, most of the geoscience professional ranks in industry were filled prior to and during the last major boom which ended in 1986. Most of this workforce is now heading into retirement and though total geoscience workforce demand is not likely to grow; substantial employment opportunities do and will exist as these individuals retire. However, this picture is more complicated than in the past. Most industries, both the traditional geoscience employers, such as petroleum, mining, and environment, and non-traditional, such as telecommunications, are increasingly global in their operations and perspectives. This increasing globalization means that US graduates now compete not only against graduates from other schools in the US, but throughout the world. When coupled with preferences for not hiring people in as expatriates for overseas assignment, US graduates face an increasingly competitive, but rewarding job market. The proverbial leveling of the playing field is also seen in the rapid rise in international membership of traditionally American professional and scientific societies. This internationalization is hardly discouraged within the culture of science, and is one that US students will need to embrace to compete effectively in the future for employment in the geosciences. One major change that will be necessitated is the adjustment of parts of academia to the new realities of preparing students for future employment within the discipline. Currently most US geoscience graduate programs are

  17. Variation and future trends in precipitation over summer and autumn across the Yunnan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Ziniu; Zhou, Xiuhua; Yang, Ping; Liu, Hua

    2016-09-01

    This study analyzed the changes in precipitation over summer and autumn across the Yunnan region of China, and undertook a composite analysis of the atmospheric circulations in the troposphere, which included an analysis of the interannual and interdecadal variations. This paper examines in detail the circulation backgrounds of the wet and dry periods in summer and autumn and their correlations with the sea surface temperature. The results indicated that the summer and autumn precipitation across Yunnan has significantly decreased over the past 50 years. Furthermore, since the beginning of the century, the summer and autumn precipitation cycle has been in a low precipitation phase. The overlap of two extremely low rain phases has caused frequent droughts in the region. In addition, the atmospheric circulation fields during these wet and dry periods are very different. These are mainly shown as a meridional wind anomaly in eastern China in the low atmosphere, as a cross-equatorial airflow anomaly, a tropical zonal wind anomaly over the Indian Ocean, and as a related South Asia High and Western Pacific Subtropical High. Further analysis suggested that the SST over the Indian Ocean and the Pacific warm pool critically affect the anomalous summer and autumn precipitation over Yunnan by impacting the monsoon circulations. Future projections for greenhouse gas warming suggest a potential anomalous circulation background between 2010 and 2020 which may result in less precipitation during the wet season or even drought events across the Yunnan region.

  18. Proposal for future trend of engine mechatronics in marine diesel engines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Higashino, Ichiro; Higashi, Tadanori (Ashiya Univ., Hyogo (Japan))

    1989-02-01

    A future condition of engine mechatronics in the marine diesel engines was proposed. As a result of investigation, it was understood that the diesel engine, as mechatronicalized for the land plant use with an already high technology, is done for the marine use as an amplification of applying that for the land plant use. The marine diesel engine, if only maintaining the good performance in all the operating conditions, is low in mechatronicalized effect as compared with that for the land plant use. Particularly, there is no expectation of effect on the large ship. While as a reply to an inquiry to 100 enterprises, expectation, in the all automation electronic control, was of, in the order of expectation, reliability, automation, energy and labor saving, and anomaly diagnosis, which showed the most desired expectation to be of reliability. In other words, the reliability is presently one of the weakest points to apply the electronic control, which inversely requires the solution for the reliability. However there can be no expectation of decrease in fuel coat due to the mechatronicalization. 13 refs., 1 tab.

  19. An overview of currently available methods and future trends for physical activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Kiško

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Methodological limitations make comparison of various instruments difficult, although the number of publications on physical activity assessment has extensively increased. Therefore, systematization of techniques and definitions is essential for the improvement of knowledge in the area. Objective: This paper systematically describes and compares up-to-date methods that assess habitual physical activity and discusses main issues regarding the use and interpretation of data collected with these techniques. Methods: A general outline of the measures and techniques described above is presented in review form, along with their respective definition, usual applications, positive aspects and shortcomings. Results and conclusions: The various factors to be considered in the selection of physical activity assessment methods include goals, sample size, budget, cultural and social/environmental factors, physical burden for the subject, and statistical factors, such as accuracy and precision. It is concluded that no single current technique is able to quantify all aspects of physical activity under free-living conditions, requiring the use of complementary methods. In not too distant future, devices will take advantage of consumer technologies, such as mobile phones, GPS devices. It is important to perform other activities, such as detecting and responding to physical activity in a real time, creating new opportunities in measurement, remote compliance monitoring, data-driven discovery and intervention.

  20. Coverage of protein domain families with structural protein-protein interactions: current progress and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goncearenco, Alexander; Shoemaker, Benjamin A; Zhang, Dachuan; Sarychev, Alexey; Panchenko, Anna R

    2014-01-01

    Protein interactions have evolved into highly precise and regulated networks adding an immense layer of complexity to cellular systems. The most accurate atomistic description of protein binding sites can be obtained directly from structures of protein complexes. The availability of structurally characterized protein interfaces significantly improves our understanding of interactomes, and the progress in structural characterization of protein-protein interactions (PPIs) can be measured by calculating the structural coverage of protein domain families. We analyze the coverage of protein domain families (defined according to CDD and Pfam databases) by structures, structural protein-protein complexes and unique protein binding sites. Structural PPI coverage of currently available protein families is about 30% without any signs of saturation in coverage growth dynamics. Given the current growth rates of domain databases and structural PPI deposition, complete domain coverage with PPIs is not expected in the near future. As a result of this study we identify families without any protein-protein interaction evidence (listed on a supporting website http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Structure/ibis/coverage/) and propose them as potential targets for structural studies with a focus on protein interactions. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  1. Peritoneal Dialysis or Hemodialysis: Present and Future Trends in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Andre A

    2017-01-01

    In 2013, 88.4% of all incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients began renal replacement therapy with hemodialysis (HD) while 9.0% began with peritoneal dialysis (PD). The remaining 2.6% received a preemptive kidney transplant. In the US, outpatient HD units are widely distributed and economy of scale has resulted in HD being the most common ESRD modality. Use of PD and preemptive kidney transplant were relatively more common in younger groups and relatively less common among Black and Hispanic patients. Of note is that the new Medicare reimbursement system, known as the 'bundle', provides substantial financial incentives to do PD as opposed to in-center HD. By the end of 2013, 63.9% of all prevalent ESRD cases were receiving HD, 6.9% were being treated with PD, and 29.3% had a functioning kidney transplant. Distributions of modality use by patient characteristics generally mirror those for incident patients. PD and kidney transplant were more commonly used among patients who were younger and were more likely to be non-Hispanic Whites. Differences in the use of home dialysis (PD and HD) are largely driven by differences among individual dialysis centers or groups of centers, rather than by large-scale regional effects. Thus, the future use of PD or home HD will be driven by the proclivities of the largest dialysis providers, which, in turn, are driven by financial reimbursement.

  2. Overview of laser applications: the state of the art and the future trend

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phipps, Claude R.

    2003-02-01

    The range and maturity of commercially useful laser applications are illustrated by selected examples. Macroscopic applications (commercialized or potentially so in the near future) include cutting, machining and welding metals, cutting fabrics, shock hardening of steels, nitrogenization of iron, and laser drilling through rock. Microscopic applications include drilling micro-holes for cooling of jet engine turbine blades, thin film growth, precision machining of structures inside transparent materials and inertially-confined deuterium-tritium fusion. To be commercially useful, these applications take advantage of the special properties of laser light, such as monochromaticity, high brightness, high pulse energy or intensity, wavelength range from soft xray to far infrared and pulse duration from femtoseconds to CW. This talk will be divided into three sections: (a) summary of the theory of laser-materials interactions with examples from published laser impulse production studies, (b) macroscopic applications, (c) microscopic applications and (d) exotic and futuristic applications, including a diode-laser-driven μN thruster for micro- and nano-satellites, and proposals to use lasers to clean hundreds of thousands of small but hazardous space debris from near-Earth space and to launch 5kg payloads into near-Earth orbit.

  3. Multivariate pattern recognition for diagnosis and prognosis in clinical neuroimaging: state of the art, current challenges and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Sven; Lovblad, Karl-Olof; Giannakopoulos, Panteleimon; Van De Ville, Dimitri

    2014-05-01

    Many diseases are associated with systematic modifications in brain morphometry and function. These alterations may be subtle, in particular at early stages of the disease progress, and thus not evident by visual inspection alone. Group-level statistical comparisons have dominated neuroimaging studies for many years, proving fascinating insight into brain regions involved in various diseases. However, such group-level results do not warrant diagnostic value for individual patients. Recently, pattern recognition approaches have led to a fundamental shift in paradigm, bringing multivariate analysis and predictive results, notably for the early diagnosis of individual patients. We review the state-of-the-art fundamentals of pattern recognition including feature selection, cross-validation and classification techniques, as well as limitations including inter-individual variation in normal brain anatomy and neurocognitive reserve. We conclude with the discussion of future trends including multi-modal pattern recognition, multi-center approaches with data-sharing and cloud-computing.

  4. Linking climate trends to population dynamics in the Baltic ringed seal: impacts of historical and future winter temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundqvist, Lisa; Harkonen, Tero; Svensson, Carl Johan; Harding, Karin C

    2012-12-01

    A global trend of a warming climate may seriously affect species dependent on sea ice. We investigated the impact of climate on the Baltic ringed seals (Phoca hispida botnica), using historical and future climatological time series. Availability of suitable breeding ice is known to affect pup survival. We used detailed information on how winter temperatures affect the extent of breeding ice and a climatological model (RCA3) to project the expected effects on the Baltic ringed seal population. The population comprises of three sub-populations, and our simulations suggest that all of them will experience severely hampered growth rates during the coming 90 years. The projected 30, 730 seals at the end of the twenty-first century constitutes only 16 % of the historical population size, and thus reduced ice cover alone will severely limit their growth rate. This adds burden to a species already haunted by other anthropogenic impacts.

  5. Future trends in the supply and demand for radiation oncology physicists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Michael D; Thornewill, Judah; Esterhay, Robert J

    2010-04-12

    Significant controversy surrounds the 2012 / 2014 decision announced by the Trustees of the American Board of Radiology (ABR) in October of 2007. According to the ABR, only medical physicists who are graduates of a Commission on Accreditation of Medical Physics Education Programs, Inc. (CAMPEP) accredited academic or residency program will be admitted for examination in the years 2012 and 2013. Only graduates of a CAMPEP accredited residency program will be admitted for examination beginning in the year 2014. An essential question facing the radiation oncology physics community is an estimation of supply and demand for medical physicists through the year 2020. To that end, a Demand & Supply dynamic model was created using STELLA software. Inputs into the model include: a) projected new cancer incidence and prevalence 1990-2020; b) AAPM member ages and retirement projections 1990-2020; c) number of ABR physics diplomates 1990-2009; d) number of patients per Qualified Medical Physicist from Abt Reports I (1995), II (2002) and III (2008); e) non-CAMPEP physicists trained 1990-2009 and projected through 2014; f) CAMPEP physicists trained 1993-2008 and projected through 2014; and g) working Qualified Medical Physicists in radiation oncology in the United States (1990-2007). The model indicates that the number of qualified medical physicists working in radiation oncology required to meet demand in 2020 will be 150-175 per year. Because there is some elasticity in the workforce, a portion of the work effort might be assumed by practicing medical physicists. However, the minimum number of new radiation oncology physicists (ROPs) required for the health of the profession is estimated to be 125 per year in 2020. The radiation oncology physics community should plan to build residency programs to support these numbers for the future of the profession.

  6. Thermal Fatigue Evaluation of Pb-Free Solder Joints: Results, Lessons Learned, and Future Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyle, Richard J.; Sweatman, Keith; Arfaei, Babak

    2015-09-01

    Thermal fatigue is a major source of failure of solder joints in surface mount electronic components and it is critically important in high reliability applications such as telecommunication, military, and aeronautics. The electronic packaging industry has seen an increase in the number of Pb-free solder alloy choices beyond the common near-eutectic Sn-Ag-Cu alloys first established as replacements for eutectic SnPb. This paper discusses the results from Pb-free solder joint reliability programs sponsored by two industry consortia. The characteristic life in accelerated thermal cycling is reported for 12 different Pb-free solder alloys and a SnPb control in 9 different accelerated thermal cycling test profiles in terms of the effects of component type, accelerated thermal cycling profile and dwell time. Microstructural analysis on assembled and failed samples was performed to investigate the effect of initial microstructure and its evolution during accelerated thermal cycling test. A significant finding from the study is that the beneficial effect of Ag on accelerated thermal cycling reliability (measured by characteristic lifetime) diminishes as the severity of the accelerated thermal cycling, defined by greater ΔT, higher peak temperature, and longer dwell time increases. The results also indicate that all the Pb-free solders are more reliable in accelerated thermal cycling than the SnPb alloy they have replaced. Suggestions are made for future work, particularly with respect to the continued evolution of alloy development for emerging application requirements and the value of using advanced analytical methods to provide a better understanding of the effect of microstructure and its evolution on accelerated thermal cycling performance.

  7. The European Language Teacher: Recent Trends and Future Developments in Teacher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenfell, Michael; Kelly, Michael; Jones, Diana

    This book describes the European language teacher of tomorrow. Based on a European Union-commissioned study of 32 countries, it sets out the current provision of language teacher training, focusing on inservice and preservice training. Fifteen case studies of innovation and good practice are included. Four chapters look at: (1) "Contexts for…

  8. Segmentation and Image Analysis of Abnormal Lungs at CT: Current Approaches, Challenges, and Future Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansoor, Awais; Foster, Brent; Xu, Ziyue; Papadakis, Georgios Z.; Folio, Les R.; Udupa, Jayaram K.; Mollura, Daniel J.

    2015-01-01

    The computer-based process of identifying the boundaries of lung from surrounding thoracic tissue on computed tomographic (CT) images, which is called segmentation, is a vital first step in radiologic pulmonary image analysis. Many algorithms and software platforms provide image segmentation routines for quantification of lung abnormalities; however, nearly all of the current image segmentation approaches apply well only if the lungs exhibit minimal or no pathologic conditions. When moderate to high amounts of disease or abnormalities with a challenging shape or appearance exist in the lungs, computer-aided detection systems may be highly likely to fail to depict those abnormal regions because of inaccurate segmentation methods. In particular, abnormalities such as pleural effusions, consolidations, and masses often cause inaccurate lung segmentation, which greatly limits the use of image processing methods in clinical and research contexts. In this review, a critical summary of the current methods for lung segmentation on CT images is provided, with special emphasis on the accuracy and performance of the methods in cases with abnormalities and cases with exemplary pathologic findings. The currently available segmentation methods can be divided into five major classes: (a) thresholding-based, (b) region-based, (c) shape-based, (d) neighboring anatomy–guided, and (e) machine learning–based methods. The feasibility of each class and its shortcomings are explained and illustrated with the most common lung abnormalities observed on CT images. In an overview, practical applications and evolving technologies combining the presented approaches for the practicing radiologist are detailed. ©RSNA, 2015 PMID:26172351

  9. Leprosy New Case Detection Trends and the Future Effect of Preventive Interventions in Pará State, Brazil: A Modelling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Matos, Haroldo José; Blok, David J; de Vlas, Sake J; Richardus, Jan Hendrik

    2016-03-01

    Leprosy remains a public health problem in Brazil. Although the overall number of new cases is declining, there are still areas with a high disease burden, such as Pará State in the north of the country. We aim to predict future trends in new case detection rate (NCDR) and explore the potential impact of contact tracing and chemoprophylaxis on NCDR in Pará State. We used SIMCOLEP, an existing individual-based model for the transmission and control of M. leprae, in a population structured by households. The model was quantified to simulate the population and observed NCDR of leprosy in Pará State for the period 1990 to 2014. The baseline scenario was the current control program, consisting of multidrug therapy, passive case detection, and active case detection from 2003 onwards. Future projections of the NCDR were made until 2050 given the continuation of the current control program (i.e. baseline). We further investigated the potential impact of two scenarios for future control of leprosy: 1) discontinuation of contact tracing; and 2) continuation of current control in combination with chemoprophylaxis. Both scenarios started in 2015 and were projected until 2050. The modelled NCDR in Pará State after 2014 shows a continuous downward trend, reaching the official elimination target of 10 cases per 100,000 population by 2030. The cessation of systematic contact tracing would not result in a higher NCDR in the long run. Systematic contact tracing in combination with chemoprophylaxis for contacts would reduce the NCDR by 40% and bring attainment of the elimination target two years forward to 2028. The NCDR of leprosy continues to decrease in Pará State. Elimination of leprosy as a public health problem could possibly be achieved around 2030, if the current control program is maintained. Providing chemoprophylaxis would decrease the NCDR further and would bring elimination forward by two years.

  10. Current Trends in Computer-Based Education in Medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farquhar, Barbara B.; Votaw, Robert G.

    1978-01-01

    Important current trends in the use of computer technology to enhance medical education are reported in the areas of simulation and assessment of clinical competence, curriculum integration, financial support, and means of exchanging views and scientific information. (RAO)

  11. The status of sandy beach science: Past trends, progress, and possible futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nel, Ronel; Campbell, Eileen E.; Harris, Linda; Hauser, Lorenz; Schoeman, David S.; McLachlan, Anton; du Preez, Derek R.; Bezuidenhout, Karien; Schlacher, Thomas A.

    2014-10-01

    of people on beaches rather than conservation of the ecosystem itself. We conclude with a look to the future for sandy beach science, and a summary of the contributions to this Special Issue.

  12. Systemic therapy in muscle-invasive and metastatic bladder cancer: current trends and future promises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aragon-Ching, Jeanny B; Trump, Donald L

    2016-09-01

    Bladder urothelial cancers remain an important urologic cancer with limited treatment options in the locally advanced and metastatic setting. While neoadjuvant chemotherapy for locally advanced muscle-invasive cancers has shown overall survival benefit, clinical uptake in practice have lagged behind. Controversies surrounding adjuvant chemotherapy use are also ongoing. Systemic therapies for metastatic bladder cancer have largely used platinum-based therapies without effective standard second-line therapy options for those who fail, although vinflunine is approved in Europe as a second-line therapy based on a Phase III trial, and most recently, atezolizumab, a checkpoint inhibitor, was approved by the US FDA. Given increasing recognition of mutational signatures expressed in urothelial carcinomas, several promising agents with use of VEGF-targeted therapies, HER2-directed agents and immunotherapies with PD-1/PD-L1 antibodies in various settings are discussed herein.

  13. Emerging Trends and Prospects for Future U.S.-European Competition and Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-01-01

    total of 345,000), and an additional 170,000 indirectly involved in defense activities. Trevor Taylor and Keith Hayward, The UK Defense Industria Base...Istituto per Is Recostruzione Industrials. 1 14Ente Partecipazioni e Finaniamento Industria Manufatturiera. 115Until the fall of 1990 EFIM was actually...Construcci6nes Aeronauticas S.A. (CASA), aircraft; Empresa Nacional Bazan de Construcci6nes Novales Militares, shipbuilding; Santa Barbara, ord- ll80ne

  14. Improving outcomes after laparoscopic appendectomy: a population-based, 12-year trend analysis of 7446 patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brügger, Lukas; Rosella, Laura; Candinas, Daniel; Güller, Ulrich

    2011-02-01

    Laparoscopic appendectomy for acute appendicitis has become increasingly used over the past decade. The objective of this trend analysis is to assess whether clinical outcomes after laparoscopic appendectomy have improved over the past 12 years. This analysis is based on the prospective database of the Swiss Association of Laparoscopic and Thoracoscopic Surgery. All patients undergoing emergency laparoscopic appendectomy for acute appendicitis from 1995 to 2006 were included. The following outcomes were assessed for each of the 12 years: conversion rates, intraoperative complications, surgical postoperative complications, general postoperative complications, rate of reoperations, and length of hospital stay. Unadjusted and risk-adjusted multivariable analyses were performed. Statistical significance was set at a level of P trend)trend)trend)trend)trend)trend)trend analysis is the first one in the literature encompassing more than a decade and reporting clinical outcomes after laparoscopic appendectomy for acute appendicitis, which represents an important quality control.

  15. Decoupling - past trends and prospects for the future[Decoupling of economic growth and environmental impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Azar, Christian; Holmberg, John; Karlsson, Sten [Chalmers Univ. of Tech., Goeteborg (SE). Physical Resource Theory] [and others

    2002-05-01

    There are widespread demands in society for a dematerialization or decoupling of economic growth from environmental impact. Calls are being made for eco-efficiency and/or an improvement of resource efficiency by a factor of 10. At the same time, some analysts claim there is an environmental Kuznet's curve that supposedly implies a fall in environmental pressure, as we get richer. An improvement in the environmental situation has already been observed in many cases, but there are also many areas where the situation is deteriorating. The purpose of this report is to summarize some key trends of energy and material use over time in both developing and developed countries. We have focused on Sweden, the EU, Japan and the USA as well as China, India and Brazil. The main findings in this paper can be summarized as follows: Absolute emissions of CO{sub 2} have been increasing in most countries and periods studied. Some countries have experienced periods with constant or even falling emissions, but this is the exception rather than the rule, and it has been triggered by oil crises or economic recessions. In order to stabilize atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations, CO{sub 2} emissions have to be decoupled much more rapidly than has been the case in the past, and it is extremely unlikely that this will happen by itself. There was some decoupling of CO{sub 2} emissions from GDP in the major economies of the world from 1970 to 1998 in the EU, Japan and the US as well as in some major developing countries such as China, although India actually increased its emissions over GDP by 1.4 per cent/yr over this period. The drop in CO{sub 2} intensity has been prompted by some decoupling of energy from GDP and CO{sub 2} from energy, the latter being a consequence of an increased use of natural gas and nuclear power. In the South, fossil CO 2 per energy tends to increase from rather low levels. With industrialization, the proportion of biomass drops and the proportion of fossil

  16. Decoupling - past trends and prospects for the future[Decoupling of economic growth and environmental impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Azar, Christian; Holmberg, John; Karlsson, Sten [Chalmers Univ. of Tech., Goeteborg (SE). Physical Resource Theory] [and others

    2002-05-01

    There are widespread demands in society for a dematerialization or decoupling of economic growth from environmental impact. Calls are being made for eco-efficiency and/or an improvement of resource efficiency by a factor of 10. At the same time, some analysts claim there is an environmental Kuznet's curve that supposedly implies a fall in environmental pressure, as we get richer. An improvement in the environmental situation has already been observed in many cases, but there are also many areas where the situation is deteriorating. The purpose of this report is to summarize some key trends of energy and material use over time in both developing and developed countries. We have focused on Sweden, the EU, Japan and the USA as well as China, India and Brazil. The main findings in this paper can be summarized as follows: Absolute emissions of CO{sub 2} have been increasing in most countries and periods studied. Some countries have experienced periods with constant or even falling emissions, but this is the exception rather than the rule, and it has been triggered by oil crises or economic recessions. In order to stabilize atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations, CO{sub 2} emissions have to be decoupled much more rapidly than has been the case in the past, and it is extremely unlikely that this will happen by itself. There was some decoupling of CO{sub 2} emissions from GDP in the major economies of the world from 1970 to 1998 in the EU, Japan and the US as well as in some major developing countries such as China, although India actually increased its emissions over GDP by 1.4 per cent/yr over this period. The drop in CO{sub 2} intensity has been prompted by some decoupling of energy from GDP and CO{sub 2} from energy, the latter being a consequence of an increased use of natural gas and nuclear power. In the South, fossil CO 2 per energy tends to increase from rather low levels. With industrialization, the proportion of biomass drops and the proportion of fossil

  17. Chinese Stock Index Futures Price Fluctuation Analysis and Prediction Based on Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruoyang Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the CSI 300 index futures officially began trading on April 15, 2010, analysis and predictions of the price fluctuations of Chinese stock index futures prices have become a popular area of active research. In this paper, the Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD method is used to decompose the sequences of Chinese stock index futures prices into residue terms, low-frequency terms, and high-frequency terms to reveal the fluctuation characteristics over different time scales of the sequences. Then, the CEEMD method is combined with the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO algorithm-based Support Vector Machine (SVM model to forecast Chinese stock index futures prices. The empirical results show that the residue term determines the long-term trend of stock index futures prices. The low-frequency term, which represents medium-term price fluctuations, is mainly affected by policy regulations under the analysis of the Iterated Cumulative Sums of Squares (ICSS algorithm, whereas short-term market disequilibrium, which is represented by the high-frequency term, plays an important local role in stock index futures price fluctuations. In addition, in forecasting the daily or even intraday price data of Chinese stock index futures, the combination prediction model is superior to the single SVM model, which implies that the accuracy of predicting Chinese stock index futures prices will be improved by considering fluctuation characteristics in different time scales.

  18. Was everything bigger in Texas? Characterization and trends of a land-based recreational shark fishery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajemian, Matthew J.; Jose, Philip D.; Froeschke, John T.; Wildhaber, Mark L.; Stunz, Gregory W.

    2016-01-01

    Although current assessments of shark population trends involve both fishery-independent and fishery-dependent data, the latter are generally limited to commercial landings that may neglect nearshore coastal habitats. Texas has supported the longest organized land-based recreational shark fishery in the United States, yet no studies have used this “non-traditional” data source to characterize the catch composition or trends in this multidecadal fishery. We analyzed catch records from two distinct periods straddling heavy commercial exploitation of sharks in the Gulf of Mexico (historical period = 1973–1986; modern period = 2008–2015) to highlight and make available the current status and historical trends in Texas’ land-based shark fishery. Catch records describing large coastal species (>1,800 mm stretched total length [STL]) were examined using multivariate techniques to assess catch seasonality and potential temporal shifts in species composition. These fishery-dependent data revealed consistent seasonality that was independent of the data set examined, although distinct shark assemblages were evident between the two periods. Similarity percentage analysis suggested decreased contributions of Lemon Shark Negaprion brevirostris over time and a general shift toward the dominance of Bull Shark Carcharhinus leucas and Blacktip Shark C. limbatus. Comparisons of mean STL for species captured in historical and modern periods further identified significant decreases for both Bull Sharks and Lemon Sharks. Size structure analysis showed a distinct paucity of landed individuals over 2,000 mm STL in recent years. Although inherent biases in reporting and potential gear-related inconsistencies undoubtedly influenced this fishery-dependent data set, the patterns in our findings documented potential declines in the size and occurrence of select large coastal shark species off Texas, consistent with declines reported in the Gulf of Mexico. Future management efforts

  19. Fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy logical relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shyi-Ming; Chen, Shen-Wen

    2015-03-01

    In this paper, we present a new method for fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy-trend logical relationships. Firstly, the proposed method fuzzifies the historical training data of the main factor and the secondary factor into fuzzy sets, respectively, to form two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships. Then, it groups the obtained two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships into two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups. Then, it calculates the probability of the "down-trend," the probability of the "equal-trend" and the probability of the "up-trend" of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group, respectively. Finally, it performs the forecasting based on the probabilities of the down-trend, the equal-trend, and the up-trend of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group. We also apply the proposed method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and the NTD/USD exchange rates. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods.

  20. Humanoid Robot: A Review of the Architecture, Applications and Future Trend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen-Hunt Ting

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available With the advancement in the area of robotics, exoskeleton technology has come a long way since its beginnings in the late 60’s. Researchers over the world have developed their own exoskeleton prototypes and some of the well known exoskeleton includes the BLEEX, MIT exoskeleton, HAL, LOPES, ALEX and many more. Although technologies have since improved from the 60’s, challenges still exist in exoskeleton design. In this study, we are going to review different exoskeleton technologies as well as its role in the area of rehabilitation. This purpose in rehabilitation is promising, based on countless of researches which have been done.

  1. [Analysis of the market and future trends of the instrumentation for ambulatory electrocardiography].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varanini, M; Taddei, A; Marchesi, C

    1987-12-01

    An inquiry has been made among most manufacturers of ambulatory ECG instrumentation. Both playback and real time systems have been considered. The inquiry, based on a questionnaire, was mainly aimed at identifying possible standard technical solutions emerging from the analysis of various implementations, and at verifying whether techniques for performance evaluation are in common use. Main conclusions of this study include: playback systems are still in competition with real time systems; automatic analysis has not yet reached adequate accuracy; analysis of ST-T interval, while performed by most systems, is not evaluated because common standard of quality is lacking.

  2. Hotel and tourism development in Cuba : opportunities, management challenges and future trends

    OpenAIRE

    Cerviño, Julio; Cubillo Pinilla, José María

    2005-01-01

    In the past ten years, Cuba has recorded the highest rate of growth in tourism arrivals of all Caribbean countries to become the third most popular tourism destination in the Caribbean region and the second destination in the region for Europeans. In the process, tourism has become Cuba’s most lucrative sector. Based on in-depth interviews with senior executives of Cuban and foreign international hotel chains operating on the island and desk research in and outside Cuba, it appears that the b...

  3. A procedure for assessing future trends of subdaily precipitation values on point scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rianna, Guido; Villani, Veronica; Mercogliano, Paola; Vezzoli, Renata

    2015-04-01

    In many areas of Italy, urban flooding or floods in small mountain basins, induced by heavy precipitations on subdaily scale, represent remarkable hazards able to cause huge damages and casualties often increased by very high population density. A proper assessment about how frequency and magnitude of such events could change under the effect of Climate Changes (CC) is crucial for the development of future territorial planning (such as early warning systems). The current constraints of climate modeling, also using high resolution RCM, prevent an adequate representation of subdaily precipitation patterns (mainly concerning extreme values) while available observed datasets are often unsuitable for the application of the bias-correction (BC) techniques requiring long time series. In this work, a new procedure is proposed: at point scale, precipitation outputs on 24 and 48 hours are provided by high resolution (about 8km) climate simulation performed through the RCM COSMO_CLM driven by GCM CMCC_CM and bias-corrected by quantile mapping approach. These ones are adopted for a monthly stochastic disaggregation approach combining Random Parameter Bartlett-Lewis (RPBL) gamma model with appropriate rainfall disaggregation technique. The last one implements empirical correction procedures, called adjusting procedures, to modify the model rainfall output, so that it is consistent with the observed rainfall values on daily time scale. In order to take into account the great difficulties related to minimization of objective function required by retrieving the 7 RPBL parameters, for each dataset the computations are repeated twenty times. Moreover, adopting statistical properties on 24 and 48 hours to retrieve RPBL parameters allows, according Bo et al. (1994), to infer statistical properties until hourly scale maintaining the information content about the possible changes in precipitation patterns due to CC. The entire simulation chain is tested on Baiso weather station, in

  4. Dental Glass Ionomer Cements as Permanent Filling Materials? – Properties, Limitations and Future Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrich Lohbauer

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Glass ionomer cements (GICs are clinically attractive dental materials that have certain unique properties that make them useful as restorative and luting materials. This includes adhesion to moist tooth structures and base metals, anticariogenic properties due to release of fluoride, thermal compatibility with tooth enamel, biocompatibility and low toxicity. The use of GICs in a mechanically loaded situation, however, has been hampered by their low mechanical performance. Poor mechanical properties, such as low fracture strength, toughness and wear, limit their extensive use in dentistry as a filling material in stress-bearing applications. In the posterior dental region, glass ionomer cements are mostly used as a temporary filling material. The requirement to strengthen those cements has lead to an ever increasing research effort into reinforcement or strengthening concepts.

  5. Trends of strategic importance for the future information landscape in the hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauter, K

    1995-01-01

    Hospitals are complex enterprises with, at the time being, evolving organizational structures. In the 80s innovative system concepts for the computer support of such complex organizations were developed, based on a controlled distribution of the components of multi-functional information systems (IS). More recently several R&D initiatives promoted these issues in general and for hospital information and communication systems (HICS) in particular. Three leading strategic ideas have in the meantime attained fundamental importance and will be considered in more detail: distribution, integration, and evolution. Strong interdependencies exist however between those three concepts, mainly expressed by the notions of interoperability and coupling of system components. In the context of a distributed IS, the notion of integration has to be extended since the centralization of all dp resources is replaced by a cooperative system concept with centralized control functions for information of hospital-wide interest, based on global models for data and processes, and distributed dp resources with a powerful central component, which is especially true for most HICS. In view of the broad scope of requirements, it is not feasible to construct these comprehensive multi-functional systems as closed and complete products. Therefore a concept of evolutionary system development is indispensable. Finally, the overall functionality of commercially available software products for integrated HICS is analyzed. With regard to the present German market for HICS of the new generation, the patient administration and hospital management functions of the care system are covered rather well; the medical/clinical functions however are not at all complete.

  6. Detecting drought trends with expanded meteorological records based on Reanalysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meza, F. J.; Morales, D.

    2013-12-01

    In Mediterranean regions, droughts are a recurrent phenomenon that cause significant economic losses and affect ecosystem functioning. The need to better monitor drought and study changes in their main properties is important for disaster risk management. An objective identification of drought and dry spell sequences depends on consistent, reliable and readily derived indicators. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) corresponds to one of these indicators as it is based in a water balance approach, facilitating drought analysis and monitoring since it allows the user to examine wet and dry periods over different time scales. SPEI has been used to characterize recent drought in the arid regions that experienced significant warming over the last century. Thus it becomes an effective tool to assess whether trends in drought events are present. The main objective of this work is to apply the SPEI and study trends of droughts of different magnitude as well as to describe their association with El Niño phenomenon in the Maipo Region (Central Chile). To circumvent problems of insufficient record length we applied a novel method for record expansion based on Reanalysis data. This method was used for data filling as well as to produce a regionally consistent database that started in 1950. Data shows that the occurrence of dry conditions of different magnitude has increased over the last decades, and the duration of extreme climatic events has slightly increased as well. These results are consistent with future climatic projections and represent a major challenge for water resources management.

  7. Remediation approaches for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) contaminated soils: Technological constraints, emerging trends and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuppusamy, Saranya; Thavamani, Palanisami; Venkateswarlu, Kadiyala; Lee, Yong Bok; Naidu, Ravi; Megharaj, Mallavarapu

    2017-02-01

    For more than a decade, the primary focus of environmental experts has been to adopt risk-based management approaches to cleanup PAH polluted sites that pose potentially destructive ecological consequences. This focus had led to the development of several physical, chemical, thermal and biological technologies that are widely implementable. Established remedial options available for treating PAH contaminated soils are incineration, thermal conduction, solvent extraction/soil washing, chemical oxidation, bioaugmentation, biostimulation, phytoremediation, composting/biopiles and bioreactors. Integrating physico-chemical and biological technologies is also widely practiced for better cleanup of PAH contaminated soils. Electrokinetic remediation, vermiremediation and biocatalyst assisted remediation are still at the development stage. Though several treatment methods to remediate PAH polluted soils currently exist, a comprehensive overview of all the available remediation technologies to date is necessary so that the right technology for field-level success is chosen. The objective of this review is to provide a critical overview in this respect, focusing only on the treatment options available for field soils and ignoring the spiked ones. The authors also propose the development of novel multifunctional green and sustainable systems like mixed cell culture system, biosurfactant flushing, transgenic approaches and nanoremediation in order to overcome the existing soil- contaminant- and microbial-associated technological limitations in tackling high molecular weight PAHs. The ultimate objective is to ensure the successful remediation of long-term PAH contaminated soils.

  8. Innovative Approaches for Controlling Clinically Relevant Biofilms: Current Trends and Future Prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanova, Kristina; Ramon, Eva; Hoyo, Javier; Tzanov, Tzanko

    2017-01-05

    Bacteria that colonize and form biofilms on living tissues and medical devices are a global healthcare concern. They cause life threatening infections and are associated with increased mortality and morbidity in the hospitals. Although antibiotics have been successfully applied for treatment of bacterial diseases, the adaptive and genetic changes of the microorganisms within the biofilms make them inherently resistant to all known antibacterial agents. Therefore, novel antimicrobial strategies that do not exert selective pressure on bacterial population and minimize the risk of resistance occurrence have been sought to prevent and treat biofilm related infections. A critical overview of the numerous groups and the rationale of advanced materials and surfaces with antibacterial and antibiofilm properties is the aim of this review. The development of antibiofilm coatings based on molecules interfering with bacterial cell-to-cell communication and biofilm integrity are discussed. Nano-scale transformation of obsolete antibiotics and surface functionalization with bacteriophages and natural antibacterials including enzymes, antimicrobial peptides, and polyphenols are also considered. Finally, recent efforts to design new generation of integrated antibacterial materials are reported.

  9. Past Experiences and Future Trends on Vertex Detector Cooling at LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Petagna, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    Substantially different approaches have been ad opted for the refrigeration plants of the first generation of vertex detectors at LHC: those of ALICE, ATLAS and CMS use PFC fluids, either in single phase or in a traditional Joule-Thomson cycle, while carbon dioxide in a pumped two-phase loop has been selected for the LHCb VELO. For what concerns the on-board thermal management of the sensors and related electronics, a traditional design has been followed, based on a common general approach and only differing in the specific choices related to the local configuration. Although the global performance of the detectors in this first phase of LHC operation can be claimed as fully satisfactory, it appears that the additional challenges posed by the coming upgrade phases can only be tackled through an effort on technology innovation and, in particular on much stronger and earlier integration of all the cooling-related aspects in the detector conception. Carbon dioxide seems to be the preferred choice for the refrige...

  10. Recent developments and future trends in solid phase microextraction techniques towards green analytical chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spietelun, Agata; Marcinkowski, Łukasz; de la Guardia, Miguel; Namieśnik, Jacek

    2013-12-20

    Solid phase microextraction find increasing applications in the sample preparation step before chromatographic determination of analytes in samples with a complex composition. These techniques allow for integrating several operations, such as sample collection, extraction, analyte enrichment above the detection limit of a given measuring instrument and the isolation of analytes from sample matrix. In this work the information about novel methodological and instrumental solutions in relation to different variants of solid phase extraction techniques, solid-phase microextraction (SPME), stir bar sorptive extraction (SBSE) and magnetic solid phase extraction (MSPE) is presented, including practical applications of these techniques and a critical discussion about their advantages and disadvantages. The proposed solutions fulfill the requirements resulting from the concept of sustainable development, and specifically from the implementation of green chemistry principles in analytical laboratories. Therefore, particular attention was paid to the description of possible uses of novel, selective stationary phases in extraction techniques, inter alia, polymeric ionic liquids, carbon nanotubes, and silica- and carbon-based sorbents. The methodological solutions, together with properly matched sampling devices for collecting analytes from samples with varying matrix composition, enable us to reduce the number of errors during the sample preparation prior to chromatographic analysis as well as to limit the negative impact of this analytical step on the natural environment and the health of laboratory employees.

  11. Liver transplantation in Latin America: the state-of-the-art and future trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvalaggio, Paolo R; Caicedo, Juan C; de Albuquerque, Luiz Carneiro; Contreras, Alan; Garcia, Valter D; Felga, Guilherme E; Maurette, Rafael J; Medina-Pestana, José O; Niño-Murcia, Alejandro; Pacheco-Moreira, Lucio F; Rocca, Juan; Rodriguez-Davalos, Manuel; Ruf, Andres; Rusca, Luis A Caicedo; Vilatoba, Mario

    2014-08-15

    We reviewed the current status of liver transplantation in Latin America. We used data from the Latin American and Caribbean Transplant Society and national organizations and societies, as well as information obtained from local transplant leaders. Latin America has a population of 589 million (8.5% of world population) and more than 2,500 liver transplantations are performed yearly (17% of world activity), resulting in 4.4 liver transplants per million people (pmp) per year. The number of liver transplantations grows at 6% per year in the region, particularly in Brazil. The top liver transplant rates were found in Argentina (10.4 pmp), Brazil (8.4 pmp), and Uruguay (5.5 pmp). The state of liver transplantation in some countries rivals those in developed countries. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-based allocation, split, domino, and living-donor adult and pediatric transplantations are now routinely performed with outcomes comparable to those in advanced economies. In contrast, liver transplantation is not performed in 35% of Latin American countries and lags adequate resources in many others. The lack of adequate financial coverage, education, and organization is still the main limiting factor in the development of liver transplantation in Latin America. The liver transplant community in the region should push health care leaders and authorities to comply with the Madrid and Istambul resolutions on organ donation and transplantation. It must pursue fiercely the development of registries to advance the science and quality control of liver transplant activities in Latin America.

  12. Plant microbial diversity is suggested as the key to future biocontrol and health trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Gabriele; Köberl, Martina; Rybakova, Daria; Müller, Henry; Grosch, Rita; Smalla, Kornelia

    2017-05-01

    The microbiome of plants plays a crucial role in both plant and ecosystem health. Rapid advances in multi-omics tools are dramatically increasing access to the plant microbiome and consequently to the identification of its links with diseases and to the control of those diseases. Recent insights reveal a close, often symbiotic relationship between microorganisms and plants. Microorganisms can stimulate germination and plant growth, prevent diseases, and promote stress resistance and general fitness. Plants and their associated microorganisms form a holobiont and have to be considered as co-evolved species assemblages consisting of bacterial, archaeal and diverse eukaryotic species. The beneficial interplay of the host and its microbiome is responsible for maintaining the health of the holobiont, while diseases are often correlated with microbial dysbioses. Microbial diversity was identified as a key factor in preventing diseases and can be implemented as a biomarker in plant protection strategies. Targeted and predictive biocontrol approaches are possible by developing microbiome-based solutions. Moreover, combined breeding and biocontrol strategies maintaining diversity and ecosystem health are required. The analysis of plant microbiome data has brought about a paradigm shift in our understanding of its role in health and disease and has substantial consequences for biocontrol and health issues. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Stereotactic radiosurgery using the Leksell Gamma Knife: current trends and future directives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jawahar, Ajay; Jawahar, Lisa L; Nanda, Anil; Sharp, Christopher D; Warren, April; Elrod, John W; Jennings, Merilyn; Alexander, J Steven; Minagar, Alireza

    2004-01-01

    Stereotactic radiosurgery is the extremely precise administration of a radiation dosage in three-dimensional space to treat an increasingly broad spectrum of intracranial and skull-base lesions. 455 patients with various indications were treated using the 201 Source Co-60 Leksell Model "B" Gamma Knife(r) at Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center in Shreveport, Louisiana. 273 (60.2%) patients received radiosurgery as the first line of treatment for their disease. The mean Karnofsky Performance Score (KPS) of the patients was 70. Cerebral metastases were the main indications for radiosurgery at our center accounting for 27% of the patients, while meningioma, AVM, trigeminal neuralgia, movement disorders, and primary CNS malignant tumors were the other indications. Our institutional experience and results indicate that low incidence of complications coupled with a high tumor control rate makes Gamma Knife stereotactic radiosurgery a viable option for patients who must undergo neurosurgery. As the Gamma Knife continues to prove itself as a first-line treatment of many complex brain disorders, new indications for this technology will continue to emerge, further broadening the scope of patient care.

  14. [Breast feeding in Puerto Rico: traditional patterns, national trends and future strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrilla Rodríguez, A M; Gorrín Peralta, J J

    1999-09-01

    The Puerto Rican society has gone through profound transformations during the past 50 years. Industrialization and the incorporation of women into the labor force have been accompanied by medicalization of the reproductive process and a progressive reduction in the prevalence of breastfeeding as the cultural norm for nutrition of infants. The data base for 1990 places Puerto Rico significantly below Latin America and the United States in the percentage of breastfed infants. The authors report their experience in the promotion of breastfeeding during the last 5 years. The principal negative factors which hinder the beginning and maintenance of successful breastfeeding are of a social nature. The orientation of physicians towards technology underrates the benefits of breastfeeding. The marketing strategies of the corporations which manufacture artificial milk continuously violate the International Code for Marketing of Breast Milk Substitutes and disfigure the community's perception on the benefits of breastfeeding. The lack of social and legal support for the breastfeeding working mother frequently prevents her from carrying out successful breastfeeding for the recommended period of time. Strategies are presented for the overturn of the existent barriers which have reduced breastfeeding in Puerto Rico to the present precarious levels.

  15. Tribology of Carbon-Based Coatings : Past, Present, and Future

    OpenAIRE

    Broitman, Esteban; Hultman, Lars

    2013-01-01

    In this talk, the development of carbon-based coatings will be reviewed. The most recent findings in the synthesis, characterization and application of carbon-based coatings will be highlighted. Future perspectives of new fullerene-like carbon-based tribological coatings will be discussed. Novel applications of fullerene-like CNx, CPx, and CFx will be envisioned.

  16. Left Atrial Appendage Closure Guided by 3D Printed Cardiac Reconstruction: Emerging Directions and Future Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellegrino, Pier Luigi; Fassini, Gaetano; DI Biase, Matteo; Tondo, Claudio

    2016-06-01

    Percutaneous left atrial appendage (LAA) occlusion has emerged as an alternative therapeutic approach to medical therapy for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation. 3D printing is a novel technology able to create a patient specific model of any given anatomical portion of the heart. Herein we report the first 2 cases of LAA occlusion procedure with 2 different systems, the Wave Crest device (Coherex Medical, Inc., USA) and the Amplatzer Amulet device (St. Jude Medical, St. Paul, MN, USA), in which a 3D printed LAA model (Care Tronik, Prato, Italy) was used in a rehearse phase. Both patients had history of paroxysmal AF and previous transient ischemic attack (TIA) occurred during oral anticoagulation with correct INR. In the first patient the occlusive device was positioned within the LAA after a rehearse occlusion using the 3D printed LAA plus a 27 mm Coherex Wavecrest device, demonstrating a good compression and sealing, particularly considering a proximal lobe of the appendage. In the second patient an attempt with the 27 mm Amulet device delivered within the 3D printed LAA, based on angiography and transesophageal echocardiographic (TEE), revealed insufficient covering of the proximal part of LAA vestibule; the device was released only after a second test with the 31 mm Amulet demonstrating a good sealing. These 2 cases demonstrated that 3D model could help in finding the correct position within LAA, sizing the device and guiding the choice of the closure device despite the measurements provided by angiography and TEE. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. [Future trend medical apps. From the apps store directly into medical practice?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehring, H; Pramann, O; Imhoff, M; Albrecht, U-V

    2014-12-01

    In day to day medical care, patients, nursing staff and doctors currently face a bewildering and rapidly growing number of health-related apps running on various "smart" devices and there are also uncountable possibilities for the use of such technology. Concerning regulation, a risk-based approach is applied for development and use (including safety and security considerations) of medical and health-related apps. Considering safety-related issues as well as organizational matters, this is a sensible approach but requires honest self-assessment as well as a high degree of responsibility, networking and good quality management by all those involved. This cannot be taken for granted. Apart from regulatory aspects it is important to not only consider what is reasonable, helpful or profitable. Quality aspects, safety matters, data protection and privacy as well as liability issues must also be considered but are often not adequately respected. If software quality is compromised, this endangers patient safety as well as data protection, privacy and data integrity. This can for example result in unwanted advertising or unauthorized access to the stored data by third parties; therefore, local, regional and international regulatory measures need to be applied in order to ensure safe use of medical apps in all possible areas, including the operating room (OR) with its highly specialized demands. Lawmakers need to include impulses from all stakeholders in their considerations and this should include input from existing private initiatives that already deal with the use and evaluation of apps in a medical context. Of course, this process needs to respect pre-existing national, European as well as international (harmonized) standards.

  18. The role of augmentative and alternative communication for children with autism: current status and future trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iacono T

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Teresa Iacono,1 David Trembath,2 Shane Erickson3 1Living with Disability Research Centre, La Trobe University, Bendigo, VIC, Australia; 2Menzies Health Institute Queensland, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, Australia; 3Living with Disability Research Centre, La Trobe University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia Background: Augmentative and alternative communication (AAC interventions are used for children with autism, often as stand-alone communication interventions for those who are minimally verbal. Our aim was to synthesize the evidence for AAC interventions for children (up to 21 years, and then consider the role of AAC within established, comprehensive, evidence-based autism interventions targeting learning across multiple developmental domains.Design: We completed a systematic search of three databases (OVID Medline, PsycINFO, ERIC as well as forward citation and hand searches to identify systematic reviews of AAC intervention efficacy research including children with autism, published between 2000 and March 2016 in peer-reviewed journals. Data pertaining to the quality indicators of included studies, effect sizes for intervention outcomes, and evidence for effectiveness were extracted for descriptive analysis.Results: The search yielded 17 systematic reviews. Most provided indicators of research quality for included studies, of which only relatively few provided conclusive results. Communication targets tended to be focused on teaching children to make requests. Still, effect size measures for included studies indicated that AAC was effective to highly effective.Conclusion: There is growing evidence for the potential benefits of AAC for children with autism, but there is a need for more well-designed studies and broader, targeted outcomes. Furthermore, a lack of evidence for the role of AAC within comprehensive intervention programs may account for a tendency by autism researchers and practitioners to neglect this intervention. Attempts to

  19. 欧盟能源政策未来走向%Future Trends of the EU Energy Policies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张志勤

    2015-01-01

    The European Union (EU) mainly consists of member countries that are post-industrial developed economies. Due to the scarcity or depletion of resources and energy resulting from long-term industrialization, the EU has a heavy dependence on imported resources and energy. The EU energy policies aim at three major targets: firstly to advocate the global proactive response to climate change, promoting renewable energies and energy-efficiency technologies, while suppressing the global market prices of traditional energies from rising continuously; secondly to stimulate the research and innovation activities for new energy technologies, ensuring its world leading role in this ifeld and its industrial enterprise competitiveness, thus reaping the beneifts of the first-mover advantage; thirdly to vigorously develop green, low-carbon and bio-based emerging industries to promote economic growth and create more jobs. By analyzing the EU energy strategies, policies and future trends, and diving deep into some of its successful experiences and practices, the article could serve as a reference to the formulation of the Thirteenth Five-Year Development Plan in China.%欧盟及其成员国多为后工业化发达国家的集成,长期的工业化导致资源能源相对匮乏枯竭,资源能源严重依赖进口。欧盟能源政策设立了三大目标:(1)倡导全球积极应对气候变化挑战,大力开发应用提高能效技术和可再生能源技术,挤压世界传统能源市场价格的持续上升空间;(2)刺激新能源技术研发创新活动,确保新能源技术世界领先水平,确保工业企业竞争力,充分发挥先发优势的巨大潜力;(3)积极发展绿色低碳生物基经济新兴产业,促进经济增长和扩大就业。本文分析了欧盟能源战略和政策及未来走向,研究了其部分成功经验及做法,对于中国制定“十三五”发展规划具有一定借鉴意义。

  20. NASA trend analysis procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

  1. Trends in hydrodesulfurization catalysis based on realistic surface models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moses, P.G.; Grabow, L.C.; Fernandez Sanchez, Eva

    2014-01-01

    Trends in hydrodesulfurization (HDS) activity are investigated on the basis of surface properties calculated by density functional theory for a series of HDS catalysts. It is shown that approximately linear correlations exist between HS group binding energies and activation barriers of key elemen...

  2. Gender-Based Violence in India: Long-Term Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simister, John; Mehta, Parnika S.

    2010-01-01

    This article examines long-term trends in Indian society regarding domestic violence between husband and wife, and attitudes to such violence. This article analyzes crime data and uses data from several Indian household surveys: "Work Attitudes and Spending" surveys (1992 to 2007); "World Values Survey" (1990, 1995, 2001, and…

  3. Gender-Based Violence in India: Long-Term Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simister, John; Mehta, Parnika S.

    2010-01-01

    This article examines long-term trends in Indian society regarding domestic violence between husband and wife, and attitudes to such violence. This article analyzes crime data and uses data from several Indian household surveys: "Work Attitudes and Spending" surveys (1992 to 2007); "World Values Survey" (1990, 1995, 2001, and…

  4. Predicting future emissions based on characteristics of stocks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van der Voet, Ester; Kleijn, Rene; Huele, Ruben [Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University, P.O. Box 9518, 2300 RA Leiden (Netherlands); Ishikawa, Masanobu [Department of Food Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Fisheries, 4-5-7, Konan, Minato, 108-8477 Tokyo (Japan); Verkuijlen, Evert [Interfaculty Department of Environmental Science IVAM, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Prinsengracht 130, 1018 VZ Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2002-05-01

    Future flows of emissions and waste from society to the environment can be estimated either as a percentage of the future stock or as a delayed input. The first approach is based on a static model where concentration is the driving force and is generally preferable for ease of calculation. The second approach is based on a dynamic model, where ageing is the driving force and knowledge of the life span is needed. We present the conditions under which the calculations based on a static model will produce acceptable approximations for a dynamic system.

  5. 我国货币政策调控的验证与未来走势判断——基于经典货币政策规则的分析视角%The Validation and Future Trend Judgment of China's Monetary Policy Control --Based on the Perspective of Classical Monetary Policy Rules

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱文倩

    2012-01-01

    本文运用麦卡勒姆规则原式和泰勒规则原式对当前及过去一段时期我国的货币政策调控进行了检验,并对下一步走势进行了分析判断。结果表明,两种规则均能很好地衡量中国的货币政策,对政策调控具有较强的指示价值。通过对当前实际值与规则值的比较以及领先期规则值的计算分析,文章认为前一阶段稳健货币政策已经取得了较好的效果,当前货币条件较为适中,紧缩周期结束,但短期内政策放松的条件并不具备。下一阶段政策或有微调,但稳健取向不会改变。%The paper inspects current and past China's monetary policy control by using the original type of McCallum Rule and Taylor Rule and analyzes the future trend of the policy. The results show that both of the two rules fit well with China's monetary policy, and can serve as the implementation guidelines for monetary policy control. By comparing the rule value with the actual value and analyzing the leading period rule value, the paper considers that the steady monetary policy has obtained a good effect, the current monetary condition is appropriate, and tightening cycle should be ended. But the relaxed conditions in short term are not mature. The policy may be finely tuned in the next phase, but the steady orientation won't be changed.

  6. Futurism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foy, Jane Loring

    The objectives of this research report are to gain insight into the main problems of the future and to ascertain the attitudes that the general population has toward the treatment of these problems. In the first section of this report the future is explored socially, psychologically, and environmentally. The second section describes the techniques…

  7. RECENT ADVANCES AND FUTURE TRENDS IN MICROEXPRESSION RESEARCH%微表情研究的进展与展望

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    梁静; 颜文靖; 吴奇; 申寻兵; 王甦菁; 傅小兰

    2013-01-01

    Microexpression is a fast and uncontrollable facial movement revealing an emotion that a person tries to conceal. It could be applied to security, forensic investigations, and clinical fields as an effective clue for detecting deceptions. In this paper, we summarize the latest studies on microexpression recognition, including psychological studies, automated microexpression recognition studies, and the requirements for developing a microexpression database. Then we discuss the current progress on microexpression generation research. In addition, the future trends in this field are discussed.%微表情是人类试图压抑或隐藏真实情感时泄露的非常短暂的、不能自主控制的面部表情.作为识别谎言的有效线索,微表情可应用于安全、司法、临床等领域.本文概述微表情识别的研究情况,包括微表情识别的心理学研究、自动微表情识别研究和微表情数据库的构建要求,以及微表情表达的研究进展,并展望微表情研究的未来发展方向.

  8. Impact of Future Tre nds on Banking Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markku Tinnilä

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper looks into long term future trends by providing a literature review and analysis of future studies. The future trends include long spanning megatrends in addition to shorter term forecasts of the forthcoming phenomena. Based on the analysis, some key trends are recognized based on their potential impact on banking services. The key trends are analyzed and discussed for their impact on future banking services. Finally, we draw some conclusions of the main development directions in banking

  9. Emerging Trends and Future Directions for the Field of Motivation Psychology: A Special Issue in Honor of Prof. Dr. Willy Lens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maarten Vansteenkiste

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This special issue is devoted to Prof. Dr. W. Lens, who passed away end of August 2014 while he was vacationing. The special issue is meant to honor Willy’s intellectual contribution to the field of motivation psychology and his enthusiastic and devoted mentorship, which has spurred many of us to study motivation-related topics. In line with Willy’s interest and extensive network, the special issue brings together scholars from diverse theoretical perspectives (i.e., Achievement Goal Theory, Future Time Perspective Theory, and Self-Determination Theory and diverse cultural backgrounds (i.e., China, Peru, Greece, Portugal, Belgium, US, Australia, Canada. We introduce the special issue by highlighting four emerging trends that characterize contemporary motivation psychology and that were central to Willy’s work: (a multiperspectivism (i.e., a reliance on multiple motivational frameworks; (b the diversity of motives and goals that underlie behavior (i.e., motivational heterogeneity; (c interest in motives for non-participation; and (d the issue of universalism versus relativism (i.e., the question whether there exist universal motivational processes or whether these processes are contingent upon sociodemographic, personality-based, and contextual factors. Each of the eight contributions in the special issue touch upon one or more of these emerging themes, which are critically discussed in conjunction with a number of directions for future research.

  10. Fertility of Czech Females Could Be Lower than Expected: Trends in Future Development of Age-Specific Fertility Rates up to the Year 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ondřej Šimpach

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fertility is an essential aspect of reproduction or population replacement of each country. The challenge for demographers is to model fertility and also to estimate its potential future level for the purposes of population projections. In the case of the Czech Republic we have the population projections provided by the Czech Statistical Office (CZSO with overlooking of the total fertility rate in low, medium and high variant. These estimates despite being based on expert judgments, seem to be too positive compared to the past development of the time series of age-specific fertility rates. The aim of this paper is to assess the situation of fertility in the Czech Republic, to analyse the past development of the time series of age-specific fertility rates using one-dimensional Box-Jenkins models and multidimensional stochastic Lee-Carter approach. Together with found trend in time series and principal components estimated by Lee-Carter’s model a forecasts of age-specific fertility rates up to the year 2050 is constructed. Th ese rates are lower than those provided by CZSO in its three variants of the Czech Republic’s population projection, and therefore we discuss the causes at the end of the paper. We would like to point out that the potential future development of Czech females fertility could be lower than which are currently expected.

  11. Spatio-temporal trends in the hydroclimate of Turkey for the last decades based on two reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gokmen, Mustafa

    2016-09-01

    We present a regional assessment of the spatiotemporal trends in several hydro-climate variables from 1979 to 2010 in Turkey, one of the countries of the eastern Mediterranean vulnerable to climate change, using the two reanalysis products of the ECMWF: ERA-Interim and ERA-Interim/Land. The trend analysis revealed that an average warming of 1.26 °C [0.8-1.8] occurred in Turkey from 1979 to 2010, with high confidence intervals (95-99 %, mostly). Geographically, the largest warming (up to 1.8 °C) occurred in the western coastal areas next to the Aegean Sea and in the southeastern regions. The air temperature trends were generally confirmed by the in situ data from about 100 weather stations around the country, though in situ data indicated slightly higher trends ranging from 1 to 2.5°. With respect to the regional trends in hydrological variables, ERA-Interim and ERA-Interim/Land revealed quite different pictures: the ERA-Interim dataset indicated that there have been significant decreasing trends of precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff in some parts of inner/southeastern Anatolia (a total decrease of up to 250 mm in the upstream of the Euphrates, Kizilirmak and Seyhan basins), while ERA-Interim/Land showed no or minor trends in the same areas. Based on the extensive comparisons with precipitation and SWE gauge data, we can suggest that the hydrological trends shown by the ERA-Interim/Land dataset, which is said to be a model improvement, are relatively closer to the observations. From the hydrological trends revealed by the ERA-Interim/Land dataset, we can conclude that, despite the strong warming trends over Turkey from 1979 to 2010, there have been no widespread and strong hydrological trends for the same period throughout the country. In this regard, we can suggest that the impacts of global warming on the water cycle are not straightforward, especially at the regional scale, and future climate simulations indicating considerable

  12. Spot Markets Indices as Benchmarks of Formation of Future Price Trends in the Power Exchanges of Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polikevych Nataliya I.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is concerned with a theoretical generalization of the use of indices for electric power at the European spot exchanges and elaborating proposals on establishment of a similar spot index for the Ukrainian power exchange. 16 indices that are published daily by the power exchanges BSP Regional Energy Exchange, Power Exchange Central Europe, Polish Power Exchange and Opcom have been analyzed. It has been indicated that these indices are used for electricity price forecasting and monitoring the situation in the power market. The article examines the way spot indices are calculated by power exchanges, based on the value of the arithmetic average of market prices «day ahead». Imperfection of such way of calculation for price index values has been substantiated. The key characteristics of the future price index for Ukrainian spot market as benchmarks within the introduction of futures contracts for electricity have been identified.

  13. Future Performance Trend Indicators: A Current Value Approach to Human Resources Accounting. Report I. Internal Consistencies and Relationships to Performance By Site. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecorella, Patricia A.; Bowers, David G.

    Analyses preparatory to construction of a suitable file for generating a system of future performance trend indicators are described. Such a system falls into the category of a current value approach to human resources accounting. It requires that there be a substantial body of data which: (1) uses the work group or unit, not the individual, as…

  14. Identifying and Exploring Future Trends Impacting on Academic Libraries: A Mixed Methodology Using Journal Content Analysis, Focus Groups, and Trend Reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwyer, Roisin

    2015-01-01

    This article compares three sources of information about academic libraries to consider what the future could hold and the skills needed to deliver effective services within that future. The starting point is the contents of "New Review of Academic Librarianship" (formerly "British Journal of Academic Librarianship") from 1986,…

  15. Identifying and Exploring Future Trends Impacting on Academic Libraries: A Mixed Methodology Using Journal Content Analysis, Focus Groups, and Trend Reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwyer, Roisin

    2015-01-01

    This article compares three sources of information about academic libraries to consider what the future could hold and the skills needed to deliver effective services within that future. The starting point is the contents of "New Review of Academic Librarianship" (formerly "British Journal of Academic Librarianship") from 1986,…

  16. The Future Development Trend of the Learning Environment%学习环境的未来发展趋向

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘晓平; 牛晓林

    2012-01-01

    学习环境的未来发展趋向是:以学习为中心,鼓励学生积极参与,使其具有自我管理意识;社会性的合作学习;与学习者的动机和情感具有高度的契合性;关注学习个体间的差异;学习者在这种学习环境中没有过多的学习负荷;使用与目标相一致的评估标准,强调形成性评价的反馈;能促进学校内外以及跨学科活动间的横向连接。为适应学习环境的发展趋向,要将教师放在变革的第一线并改变教师的教育信念,提倡创新形式的教育,提高学校知识管理所发挥的作用,并关注专业化的合作和实践社区。%The future development trend of the learning environment is:the study should be learning-centered;teachers should encourage students to actively participate in study;learners' motivation should be highly combined with learning emotion;differences of individual learning should be focused;learners in this learning environment don't have too many learning burdens;assessment criteria consistent with the goal should be used to emphasize the feedback of formative evaluation;the lateral connections between cross-disciplinary activities and the extra curriculum activities should be promoted.In order to meet the development trend of the learning environment,teachers should be put on the first line and their educational beliefs should be changed,innovative forms of education should be promoted,school's role in knowledge management should get improved and professional cooperation and the practice in communities should be focused.

  17. National Trends in Child and Adolescent Psychotropic Polypharmacy in Office-Based Practice, 1996-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comer, Jonathan S.; Olfson, Mark; Mojtabai, Ramin

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To examine patterns and recent trends in multiclass psychotropic treatment among youth visits to office-based physicians in the United States. Method: Annual data from the 1996-2007 National Ambulatory Medical Care Surveys were analyzed to examine patterns and trends in multiclass psychotropic treatment within a nationally…

  18. Decreasing trend of hysterectomy in Taiwan: A population-based study, 1997–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerry Cheng-Yen Lai

    2015-10-01

    Conclusion: The clinical utilization and primary indications of hysterectomy changed substantially in Taiwan from 1997 to 2010. The continued monitoring of changes in hysterectomy rates will be critical for understanding the appropriate indications for hysterectomy and oophorectomy, the emergence of alternative managements for uterine disorders, and future trends in women's reproductive health.

  19. Future Trends in Extreme Temperatures over the Western U.S.: The Influence of Terrain and Coastlines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, M.

    2015-12-01

    A number of studies have suggested that heat waves will increase in frequency, intensity, and duration under anthropogenic global warming. However, these trends are less understood in regions of complex terrain or in coastal regions where temperature gradients are relatively larger and mesoscale features are important. Thus it is important to understand the regional impacts of terrain and land/water contrasts on heat extremes in a warming world, and identify changes in the conditions that drive such extremes. The northwest U.S. is a region with such surface complexity, where regional heat extremes arise from synoptic/mesoscale interactions between the large-scale flow and local topography This talk will analyze changes to the synoptic and mesoscale conditions associated with heat extremes over the northwest U.S. by utilizing CMIP5 global climate model simulations, and dynamically downscaled regional climate models. An analysis of changes in mid- to low-level tropospheric temperature, offshore/onshore flow, soil moisture, precipitation, and cloud fraction are described, as well as how these changes interact with regional terrain and land/water contrasts to alter the temperature distributions over the region. CMIP5 models suggest that low-level zonal wind distributions over the northwest U.S. become narrower, leading to fewer days with strong offshore flow. Soil moisture is projected to decline over the region due to reductions in clouds and precipitation, as well as general warming. Historical and future regional temperature distributions will be described, and it will be shown that even though climate models predict increases in heat extremes for western Oregon and Washington, these increases are far fewer compared to inland areas. The variance over most inland locations increases, with the exception of the northwest U.S., where variance doesn't change. The importance of regional terrain and land/water contrasts in explaining these changes will be described.

  20. Technology-based suicide prevention: current applications and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luxton, David D; June, Jennifer D; Kinn, Julie T

    2011-01-01

    This review reports on current and emerging technologies for suicide prevention. Technology-based programs discussed include interactive educational and social networking Web sites, e-mail outreach, and programs that use mobile devices and texting. We describe innovative applications such as virtual worlds, gaming, and text analysis that are currently being developed and applied to suicide prevention and outreach programs. We also discuss the benefits and limitations of technology-based applications and discuss future directions for their use.

  1. Rfid-Based Automatic Bus Ticketing: Features and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oudah, A.

    2016-02-01

    Recent advancements in various technologies have made remarkable developments in various fields for public welfare and public transport is one such area. In the near future public bus transport system with advanced technologies like Radio Frequency Identification Device (RFID), GSM, GPS, ZigBee and RF modules will gain spotlight due to their advantage of higher convenience and greater life standards as compared to the conventional bus systems. In this paper, a comprehensive review of all several proposed bus ticketing and bus information methods has been presented in detail. The study brings out improved solution in terms of cost, convenience, user satisfaction and future implementation. The choice of working modules and their efficient performance has been discussed along with the highlighted importance of the need of technology for welfare of common public and visually impaired.

  2. The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Aaron P; Gole, Tadesse Woldemariam; Baena, Susana; Moat, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020-2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies 'core localities' that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations

  3. The Sentiment Trend Analysis of Twitter Based on Set Pair Contact Degree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunying Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Sentiment trend of twitter users have a great influence on their friends and the crowd listened. This paper directs at the user sentiment state of twitter, the unique medium, and applies set pair analysis method for trend analysis. First, we begin with set pair contact degree, then based on set pair affective computing model to make comparison with the size relationship of same degree, difference degree, opposition degree of the emotion, to build the user sentiment trend analysis model; Secondly, we analyze the influence for the user's own sentiment trend when the value changed of difference coefficient ; thirdly, after analyze to obtain one user's sentiment orientation threshold as prerequisite for user behavior prediction. Finally, setting an example to calculate the sentiment trend of one twitter, then to get the conclusion is that the analysis of user emotion from a three-dimensional angle is more realistic than the single angle.

  4. A sensitivity analysis of secular trends in risk factors and mortality based on cohort studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prescott, E; Andersen, P K; Osler, M;

    1999-01-01

    Because of a "healthy responder effect," secular trends in mortality based on cohort studies may be biased if based on responders only. Because responders are selected on the basis of their health at study entry, subjects just entering a study are not comparable with subjects who have been...... secular trend in mortality. By applying different assumptions regarding smoking habits among nonresponders, we explored the effect of the assumptions on the adjusted secular trend in mortality. We conclude that secular trends in mortality based on responders in a cohort study are likely to be biased...... biased. In a sensitivity analysis, the observed person-years of nonresponders were distributed among six categories of persons with respect to smoking behavior (never-smokers; ex-smokers; noninhaling current smokers; and current smokers of 1-14, 15-24, and > or =25 gm tobacco per day) according to preset...

  5. Current epidemiological trends for Chagas disease in Latin America and future challenges in epidemiology, surveillance and health policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro Moncayo

    2009-07-01

    worldwide network of laboratories that carried out basic and applied research supporting the planning and evaluation of national Chagas disease control programmes. The present article reviews the current epidemiological trends for Chagas disease in Latin America and the future challenges in terms of epidemiology, surveillance and health policy.

  6. A flexible future for paper-based electronics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Tongfen; Zou, Xiyue; Mazzeo, Aaron D.

    2016-05-01

    This paper will review the origins and state of the art in paper-based electronics, suggesting the stage is set for future promising applications. Current interest in paper-based electronics can trace its roots to recent developments in paper-based microfluidics. With a need to improve the reliability and sensitivity of paperbased microfluidics for certain tasks, there were natural efforts to begin embedding sensing electrodes into microfluidic devices. Recognizing the general benefits of paper as an advanced material (e.g., its environmental friendliness, bendable nature, and low cost), efforts in paper-based electronics also began to take a life of their own with demonstrations of transistors, batteries and devices for energy storage, energy harvesting, sensors to improve situational awareness, acoustics, and displays. The state-of-the-art paper-based electronic devices have benefited and will continue to profit from technologies for printing and transferring electronic functionality onto the surfaces of paper-based substrates. Nonetheless, the authors suggest that many future promising applications will go beyond using paper as a carrier/substrate for electronic components to explore tuning of the electrical, mechanical, and chemical properties of the paper itself. With these technical advances, paper-based electronics will move closer to economically viable killer applications.

  7. The Current Situation and Future Trend of Learn Analysis Technology Based on 2011-2015 LAK Conference Papers%学习分析技术的研究现状与未来趋势*--基于2011-2015年LAK会议论文的分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曹帅; 王以宁; 徐鹏

    2016-01-01

    “数据驱动决策,分析变革教育”的大数据时代推动了技术与教育的深度融合,教育大数据的出现为学习分析技术的发展提供了研究契机,学习分析技术可以有效地发挥教育大数据蕴藏的价值,使数据成为优化学习者学习活动的依据。美国新媒体联盟连续几年来预测学习分析将成为教育领域的研究主流,学习分析技术与知识国际会议连续五年的举办也为学习分析技术的精细化研究提供了组织保障,该文通过对2011-2015年“学习分析技术与知识”国际会议The International Conference on Learning Analytics and Knowledge,简称LAK的会议论文进行文本挖掘和内容分析,整合了大数据视角下学习分析技术的研究现状和发展趋势以及面对的挑战,以期能够梳理学习分析领域的研究脉络,启示未来的深入研究。%Technology and education are closely integrated in the era of big data, whose emergence in education provides a research opportunity for the development of learning analysis technology which can effectively explore the value of big data that is hidden in education, and thus make data the basis for optimizing learners’ learning activity. For several successive years, the United States New Media Consortium has been predicting that learning analysis will become the mainstream of research in the ifeld of education, and the International Conference on Learning Analytics and Knowledge in the previous 5 consecutive years provides the organizational guarantee for the meticulous research. Based on the text mining and content analysis of the International Conference on Learning Analytics and Knowledge papers in 2011-2015, this paper integrates the research status, development trend and the existing challenges of the learning analysis technology from the big data perspective. Hopefully, this paper can sort out the study of the ifeld of learning analysis technology through the

  8. The Role of Proteomics in the Diagnosis and Treatment of Women's Cancers: Current Trends in Technology and Future Opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eun-Kyoung Yim Breuer

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Technological and scientific innovations over the last decade have greatly contributed to improved diagnostics, predictive models, and prognosis among cancers affecting women. In fact, an explosion of information in these areas has almost assured future generations that outcomes in cancer will continue to improve. Herein we discuss the current status of breast, cervical, and ovarian cancers as it relates to screening, disease diagnosis, and treatment options. Among the differences in these cancers, it is striking that breast cancer has multiple predictive tests based upon tumor biomarkers and sophisticated, individualized options for prescription therapeutics while ovarian cancer lacks these tools. In addition, cervical cancer leads the way in innovative, cancer-preventative vaccines and multiple screening options to prevent disease progression. For each of these malignancies, emerging proteomic technologies based upon mass spectrometry, stable isotope labeling with amino acids, high-throughput ELISA, tissue or protein microarray techniques, and click chemistry in the pursuit of activity-based profiling can pioneer the next generation of discovery. We will discuss six of the latest techniques to understand proteomics in cancer and highlight research utilizing these techniques with the goal of improvement in the management of women's cancers.

  9. SDN, Key Trend of the Future Network Evolution%SDN——未来网络演进的重要趋势

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵慧玲; 冯明; 史凡

    2012-01-01

    SDN已经成为通信界最热门的词汇之一,其基于控制和转发相分离的思路,实现了网络和业务的可编程,促进了网络的虚拟化和IT化以及硬件的归一化,为降低建设成本、运维难度和业务响应时间奠定了基础.SDN代表了网络演进的方向和趋势,以OpenFlow为代表的相关技术正在标准化过程中,业界也开始了相应的研发和部署试验,但总体上还处于起步阶段,值得各方加以重视,以促进未来网络的智能化发展.%Now the SDN becomes the hot topic in the telecom world.It is based on the separation of the control plane and data plane, also introducing the programming between network and service.So SDN can promote the network virtualization and device uniformity, as help to reduce the CAPEX/OPEX and release time for new service.SDN is the key trend for the future network evolution obviously even in its early stage now.The OpenFlow, which is the typical protocol in SDN is maturing step by step with the work in ONF.Also some R&D related with SDN is in progress all over the world, indicating the right future of the SDN.

  10. Partial Discharge Characteristics of Polymer Nanocomposite Materials in Electrical Insulation: A Review of Sample Preparation Techniques, Analysis Methods, Potential Applications, and Future Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wan Akmal Izzati

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Polymer nanocomposites have recently been attracting attention among researchers in electrical insulating applications from energy storage to power delivery. However, partial discharge has always been a predecessor to major faults and problems in this field. In addition, there is a lot more to explore, as neither the partial discharge characteristic in nanocomposites nor their electrical properties are clearly understood. By adding a small amount of weight percentage (wt% of nanofillers, the physical, mechanical, and electrical properties of polymers can be greatly enhanced. For instance, nanofillers in nanocomposites such as silica (SiO2, alumina (Al2O3 and titania (TiO2 play a big role in providing a good approach to increasing the dielectric breakdown strength and partial discharge resistance of nanocomposites. Such polymer nanocomposites will be reviewed thoroughly in this paper, with the different experimental and analytical techniques used in previous studies. This paper also provides an academic review about partial discharge in polymer nanocomposites used as electrical insulating material from previous research, covering aspects of preparation, characteristics of the nanocomposite based on experimental works, application in power systems, methods and techniques of experiment and analysis, and future trends.

  11. Meteorological hazard assessment based on trends and abrupt changes in rainfall characteristics on the Korean peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Jang Hyun; Chung, Eun-Sung; Kim, Yeonjoo; Lee, Bo-Ram

    2017-01-01

    This study presents a statistical approach for assessing meteorological hazards based on trends and abrupt changes in precipitation characteristics. Daily rainfall data from 64 stations in South Korea (SK) and 27 stations in North Korea (NK) were used to identify temporal patterns in the rainfall characteristics of both regions using seven rainfall indices, such as the total annual rainfall and annual number of wet days. This study suggests the use of three steps in identifying meteorological hazards based on two statistical analyses. In step 1, we conducted a trend analysis of a 10-year moving average of the rainfall index using the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test. Most stations (65.6 %) in SK exhibit clear increasing trends in five indices, whereas far fewer have data indicating any trends in five of the indices in NK (25.9 %). In step 2, abrupt changes in all rainfall indices were identified using a Bayesian Change Point (BCP) approach. The results contradict those from the MK trend analysis. The proportion of stations in NK where trends were identified is much higher than that in SK. In step 3, the results from the two previous steps were integrated to identify the meteorological hazards based on the identified trend and change point. The BCP approach can be used to identify meteorological hazards that MK cannot, as the former approach focuses on the change point during the entire period. As a result, meteorological stability at the sites of weather stations can be identified, and then the meteorological hazards across the entire Korean peninsula can be spatially interpolated. Although SK and NK are located on the same peninsula, distinct differences in the trends were observed.

  12. Adding trend data to Depletion-Based Stock Reduction Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Bayesian model of Depletion-Based Stock Reduction Analysis (DB-SRA), informed by a time series of abundance indexes, was developed, using the Sampling Importance...

  13. Study of Global Health Strategy Based on International Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    HATANAKA, Takashi; EGUCHI, Narumi; DEGUCHI, Mayumi; YAZAWA, Manami; ISHII, Masami

    2015-01-01

    integration with global environment problem management. (8) Support systems, such as for managing large-scale disasters of international scale or preventing the spread of infectious diseases, should be developed and maintained. (9) International healthcare policy, which the Japanese government is trying to promote in accordance with international trends, and international development of Japanese healthcare industry should be reconsidered. PMID:26870622

  14. Groundwater level and nitrate concentration trends on Mountain Home Air Force Base, southwestern Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Marshall L.

    2014-01-01

    Mountain Home Air Force Base in southwestern Idaho draws most of its drinking water from the regional aquifer. The base is located within the State of Idaho's Mountain Home Groundwater Management Area and is adjacent to the State's Cinder Cone Butte Critical Groundwater Area. Both areas were established by the Idaho Department of Water Resources in the early 1980s because of declining water levels in the regional aquifer. The base also is listed by the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality as a nitrate priority area. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force, began monitoring wells on the base in 1985, and currently monitors 25 wells for water levels and 17 wells for water quality, primarily nutrients. This report provides a summary of water-level and nitrate concentration data collected primarily between 2001 and 2013 and examines trends in those data. A Regional Kendall Test was run to combine results from all wells to determine an overall regional trend in water level. Groundwater levels declined at an average rate of about 1.08 feet per year. Nitrate concentration trends show that 3 wells (18 percent) are increasing in nitrate concentration trend, 3 wells (18 percent) show a decreasing nitrate concentration trend, and 11 wells (64 percent) show no nitrate concentration trend. Six wells (35 percent) currently exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's maximum contaminant limit of 10 milligrams per liter for nitrate (nitrite plus nitrate, measured as nitrogen).

  15. [Present and future of genotype-based personalized nutrition].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkadi Nagy, Eszter; Martos, Éva

    2014-05-18

    After the completion of the Human Genome Project, the era of providing personalized dietary advice based on an individual's genetic profile seemed near. Since then more than a decade has passed and the pace of development has been slower than expected. Genotyping single nucleotide polymorphisms which may determine susceptibility to multifactorial diseases is cheaper and more accessible than it was ten years ago. However, few of them are supported by such solid scientific evidence which would justify their use for personalized dietary advice. The future of genotype-based personalized nutrition depends on whether a sufficient amount of gene-diet-disease interactions are identified and scientifically confirmed.

  16. Irregular Warfare and Future War: Strategy and Defense Planning; Strategic Insights, v. 10, Special issue (October 2011), 92-98. Topic: Global Trends and Future Warfare ; Part II: Technological and Doctrinal Innovation

    OpenAIRE

    Russell, James A.

    2011-01-01

    This article appeared in Strategic Insights, v.10, Special issue (October 2011), 92-98. Topic: Global Trends and Future Warfare ; Part II: Technological and Doctrinal Innovation Approved for public display, distribution unlimited The purpose of this paper is threefold: to speculate on the role and prominence of irregular warfare in the strategic environment over the next quarter century, to comment on the impact that phenomenon may have on shaping the postulated scenarios addressed in t...

  17. Vegetable oil-based diesel fuels: Overview and current trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Since the energy crises of the 1970's and early 1980's, feedstocks and fuels with the potential to reduce dependence on petroleum-based energy and fuels have found increasing interest. Materials with triacylglycerols (triglycerides; esters of glycerol with fatty acids) as major components, such as ...

  18. Recent Trends in Conducting School-Based Experimental Functional Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Stacy L.

    2009-01-01

    Demonstrations of school-based experimental functional analyses have received limited attention within the literature. School settings present unique practical and ethical concerns related to the implementation of experimental analyses which were originally developed within clinical settings. Recent examples have made definite contributions toward…

  19. Global Trends and School-Based Social Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen-Meares, Paula; Montgomery, Katherine L.

    2014-01-01

    In the 21st century, substantial advancements have been made across the globe that positively affect the ability for school-based social workers in the fields of practice, policy, and research to meet the needs of the world's youths. Nonetheless, children continue to suffer from poverty-stricken environments, absence of basic needs, poor or…

  20. FlyBase at 25: looking to the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gramates, L. Sian; Marygold, Steven J.; dos Santos, Gilberto; Urbano, Jose-Maria; Antonazzo, Giulia; Matthews, Beverley B.; Rey, Alix J.; Tabone, Christopher J.; Crosby, Madeline A.; Emmert, David B.; Falls, Kathleen; Goodman, Joshua L.; Hu, Yanhui; Ponting, Laura; Schroeder, Andrew J.; Strelets, Victor B.; Thurmond, Jim; Zhou, Pinglei

    2017-01-01

    Since 1992, FlyBase (flybase.org) has been an essential online resource for the Drosophila research community. Concentrating on the most extensively studied species, Drosophila melanogaster, FlyBase includes information on genes (molecular and genetic), transgenic constructs, phenotypes, genetic and physical interactions, and reagents such as stocks and cDNAs. Access to data is provided through a number of tools, reports, and bulk-data downloads. Looking to the future, FlyBase is expanding its focus to serve a broader scientific community. In this update, we describe new features, datasets, reagent collections, and data presentations that address this goal, including enhanced orthology data, Human Disease Model Reports, protein domain search and visualization, concise gene summaries, a portal for external resources, video tutorials and the FlyBase Community Advisory Group. PMID:27799470

  1. Recent Trends in Field-Effect Transistors-Based Immunosensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Carolina Mazarin de Moraes

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Immunosensors are analytical platforms that detect specific antigen-antibody interactions and play an important role in a wide range of applications in biomedical clinical diagnosis, food safety, and monitoring contaminants in the environment. Field-effect transistors (FET immunosensors have been developed as promising alternatives to conventional immunoassays, which require complicated processes and long-time data acquisition. The electrical signal of FET-based immunosensors is generated as a result of the antigen-antibody conjugation. FET biosensors present real-time and rapid response, require small sample volume, and exhibit higher sensitivity and selectivity. This review brings an overview on the recent literature of FET-based immunosensors, highlighting a diversity of nanomaterials modified with specific receptors as immunosensing platforms for the ultrasensitive detection of various biomolecules.

  2. Envisioning the Future of Special Education Personnel Preparation in a Standards-Based Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leko, Melinda M.; Brownell, Mary T.; Sindelar, Paul T.; Kiely, Mary Theresa

    2015-01-01

    The authors consider the future of special education personnel preparation by responding to an overarching question: "What frameworks might teacher educators use as a basis to promote special education teacher effective performance now and in the future?" In answering this question, they summarize current trends in the context of…

  3. Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2017-05-01

    The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1) till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

  4. Current Trends in Nanomaterial-Based Amperometric Biosensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhtar Hayat

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The last decade has witnessed an intensive research effort in the field of electrochemical sensors, with a particular focus on the design of amperometric biosensors for diverse analytical applications. In this context, nanomaterial integration in the construction of amperometric biosensors may constitute one of the most exciting approaches. The attractive properties of nanomaterials have paved the way for the design of a wide variety of biosensors based on various electrochemical detection methods to enhance the analytical characteristics. However, most of these nanostructured materials are not explored in the design of amperometric biosensors. This review aims to provide insight into the diverse properties of nanomaterials that can be possibly explored in the construction of amperometric biosensors.

  5. The Issues and Methodologies in Sustainability Assessment Tools for Higher Education Institutions: A Review of Recent Trends and Future Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarime, Masaru; Tanaka, Yuko

    2012-01-01

    Assessment tools influence incentives to higher education institutions by encouraging them to move towards sustainability. A review of 16 sustainability assessment tools was conducted to examine the recent trends in the issues and methodologies addressed in assessment tools quantitatively and qualitatively. The characteristics of the current…

  6. The Issues and Methodologies in Sustainability Assessment Tools for Higher Education Institutions: A Review of Recent Trends and Future Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarime, Masaru; Tanaka, Yuko

    2012-01-01

    Assessment tools influence incentives to higher education institutions by encouraging them to move towards sustainability. A review of 16 sustainability assessment tools was conducted to examine the recent trends in the issues and methodologies addressed in assessment tools quantitatively and qualitatively. The characteristics of the current…

  7. Research Library Trends, 1951-1980 and Beyond: An Update of Purdue's "Past and Likely Future of 58 Research Libraries."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seibert, Warren F.; And Others

    This research extends the "Purdue studies" of research library growth, presenting results that include library statistical trends during a 35-year period, 1951-1985. It serves to update Purdue's 9-report series (1965-1973) and is a validation study of Purdue's growth forecasts, 28 of which were published in 1965, then revised in 1971. The research…

  8. Membrane-based seawater desalination: Present and future prospects

    KAUST Repository

    Amy, Gary L.

    2016-10-20

    Given increasing regional water scarcity and that almost half of the world\\'s population lives within 100 km of an ocean, seawater represents a virtually infinite water resource. However, its exploitation is presently limited by the significant specific energy consumption (kWh/m) required by conventional desalination technologies, further exasperated by high unit costs ($/m) and environmental impacts including GHG emissions (g CO-eq/m), organism impingement/entrainment through intakes, and brine disposal through outfalls. This paper explores the state-of-the-art in present seawater desalination practice, emphasizing membrane-based technologies, while identifying future opportunities in step improvements to conventional technologies and development of emerging, potentially disruptive, technologies through advances in material science, process engineering, and system integration. In this paper, seawater reverse osmosis (RO) serves as the baseline conventional technology. The discussion extends beyond desalting processes into membrane-based salinity gradient energy production processes, which can provide an energy offset to desalination process energy requirements. The future membrane landscape in membrane-based desalination and salinity gradient energy is projected to include ultrahigh permeability RO membranes, renewable-energy driven desalination, and emerging processes including closed-circuit RO, membrane distillation, forward osmosis, pressure retarded osmosis, and reverse electrodialysis according various niche applications and/or hybrids, operating separately or in conjunction with RO.

  9. Explicit representation of confidence informs future value-based decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Folke, Tomas; Jacobsen, Catrine; Fleming, Stephen M.

    2016-01-01

    Humans can reflect on decisions and report variable levels of confidence. But why maintain an explicit representation of confidence for choices that have already been made and therefore cannot be undone? Here we show that an explicit representation of confidence is harnessed for subsequent changes...... of mind. Specifically, when confidence is low, participants are more likely to change their minds when the same choice is presented again, an effect that is most pronounced in participants with greater fidelity in their confidence reports. Furthermore, we show that choices reported with high confidence...... of confidence has a positive impact on the quality of future value-based decisions....

  10. Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soykan, Candan U.; Sauer, John; Schuetz, Justin G.; LeBaron, Geoffrey S.; Dale, Kathy; Langham, Gary M.

    2016-01-01

    Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with

  11. Recent trends in agricultural production of Africa based on AVHRR NDVI time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrieling, Anton; de Beurs, Kirsten M.; Brown, Molly E.

    2008-10-01

    African agriculture is expected to be hard-hit by ongoing climate change. Effects are heterogeneous within the continent, but in some regions resulting production declines have already impacted food security. Time series of remote sensing data allow us to examine where persistent changes occur. In this study, we propose to examine recent trends in agricultural production using 26 years of NDVI data. We use the 8-km resolution AVHRR NDVI 15-day composites of the GIMMS group (1981-2006). Temporal data-filtering is applied using an iterative Savitzky-Golay algorithm to remove noise in the time series. Except for some regions with persistent cloud cover, this filter produced smooth profiles. Subsequently two methods were used to extract phenology indicators from the profiles for each raster cell. These indicators include start of season, length of season, time of maximum NDVI, maximum NDVI, and cumulated NDVI over the season. Having extracted the indicators for every year, we aggregate them for agricultural areas at sub-national level using a crop mask. The aggregation was done to focus the analysis on agriculture, and allow future comparison with yield statistics. Trend analysis was performed for yearly aggregated indicators to assess where persistent change occurred during the 26-year period. Results show that the phenology extraction method chosen has an important influence on trend outcomes. Consistent trends suggest a rising yield trend for 500-1100 mm rainfall zones ranging from Senegal to Sudan. Negative yield trends are expected for the southern Atlantic coast of West Africa, and for western Tanzania.

  12. Computer-based controlon mathematical education of the future engineers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Катерина Володимирівна Власенко

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available There was offered the computer-based management of the scientific-cognitive activity of the future engineers and organization of control on mathematical education using the attainments of the modern information technologies. There were analyzed the e-school-books elaborated by the higher mathematics teachers of the Donbass state academy of mechanical engineering and Donetsk national technical university. There was grounded an expediency of the use of aforesaid school-books during the lectures or independent students’ work and at the control on education of the future specialists of engineer branch that is considered as the category of management as the relatively independent final element of managerial cycle of educational process. There were offered methodological recommendations of the use of e-educational technologies at mathematical studies. There was elucidated how the introduction of educational materials from internet-resource with the access mode http://vmdbi.net.ua/ favors the computer-based control on education: oral questioning of students, written control works, tests and so on. There was proved that the use of offered means at the control on mathematical education gives the possibility to establish the reverse connection at studying mathematics and comprehensively examine the level of knowledge and skills of the studied discipline in students

  13. Sedimentation in the Three Gorges Dam and the future trend of Changjiang (Yangtze River sediment flux to the sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guogang Li

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The Three Gorges Dam (TGD on the upper Changjiang (Yangtze River, China, disrupts the continuity of Changjiang sediment delivery to downstream and coastal areas. In this study, which was based on 54 years of annual water and sediment data from the mainstream and major tributaries of Changjiang, sediment deposition induced by the TGD in 2003–2008 was quantified. Furthermore, we determined the theoretical trapping efficiency of the cascade reservoir upstream of the TGD. Its impact on Changjiang sediment flux in the coming decades is discussed. Results show that about 172 million tons (Mt of sediment was trapped annually by the TGD in 2003–2008, with an averaged trapping efficiency of 75%. Most of the total sediment deposition, as induced by the TGD (88%, accumulated within the region between the TGD site and Cuntan. However, significant siltation (12% of the total sediment deposition also occurred upstream of Cuntan as a consequence of the upstream extended backwater region of the TGD. Additionally, the Changjiang sediment flux entered a third downward step in 2001, prior to operation of the TGD. This mainly resulted from sediment reduction in the Jinshajiang tributary since the late 1990s. As the cascade reservoir is put into full operation, it could potentially trap 91% of the Jinshajiang sediment discharge and, therefore, the Jinshajiang sediment discharge would most likely further decrease to 14 Mt/yr in the coming decades. Consequently, the Changjiang sediment flux to the sea is expected to continuously decrease to below 90 Mt/yr in the near future, or only 18% of the amount observed in the 1950s. In the presence of low sediment discharge, profound impacts on the morphology of estuary, delta and coastal waters are expected.

  14. Future of photorefractive based holographic 3D display

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanche, P.-A.; Bablumian, A.; Voorakaranam, R.; Christenson, C.; Lemieux, D.; Thomas, J.; Norwood, R. A.; Yamamoto, M.; Peyghambarian, N.

    2010-02-01

    The very first demonstration of our refreshable holographic display based on photorefractive polymer was published in Nature early 20081. Based on the unique properties of a new organic photorefractive material and the holographic stereography technique, this display addressed a gap between large static holograms printed in permanent media (photopolymers) and small real time holographic systems like the MIT holovideo. Applications range from medical imaging to refreshable maps and advertisement. Here we are presenting several technical solutions for improving the performance parameters of the initial display from an optical point of view. Full color holograms can be generated thanks to angular multiplexing, the recording time can be reduced from minutes to seconds with a pulsed laser, and full parallax hologram can be recorded in a reasonable time thanks to parallel writing. We also discuss the future of such a display and the possibility of video rate.

  15. Shifts in Search Engine Development: A Review of Past, Present and Future Trends in Research on Search Engines

    OpenAIRE

    Hamid R. Jamali; Saeid Asadi

    2004-01-01

    The World Wide Web has developed fast and many people use search engines to capture information from the Web. This article reviews past, present and future of search engines. Papers published in four major Web and information management conferences were surveyed to track research interests in the last five years. Web search and information retrieval topics such as ranking, filtering and query formulation are still hot topics among researchers. The most important shifts and issues of the futur...

  16. Looking to the future of new media in health marketing: deriving propositions based on traditional theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Della, Lindsay J; Eroglu, Dogan; Bernhardt, Jay M; Edgerton, Erin; Nall, Janice

    2008-01-01

    Market trend data show that the media marketplace continues to rapidly evolve. Recent research shows that substantial portions of the U.S. media population are "new media" users. Today, more than ever before, media consumers are exposed to multiple media at the same point in time, encouraged to participate in media content generation, and challenged to learn, access, and use the new media that are continually entering the market. These media trends have strong implications for how consumers of health information access, process, and retain health-related knowledge. In this article we review traditional information processing models and theories of interpersonal and mass media access and consumption. We make several theory-based propositions for how traditional information processing and media consumption concepts will function as new media usage continues to increase. These propositions are supported by new media usage data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's entry into the new media market (e.g., podcasting, virtual events, blogging, and webinars). Based on these propositions, we conclude by presenting both opportunities and challenges that public health communicators and marketers will face in the future.

  17. Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Brian K; Jalal, Hawre; Hashimoto, Hideki; Suen, Sze-Chuan; Eggleston, Karen; Hurley, Michael; Schoemaker, Lena; Bhattacharya, Jay

    2016-12-01

    Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan's future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model - the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) - for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan's future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan's elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan's future.

  18. The effects of energy paths and emission controls and standards on future trends in China's emissions of primary air pollutants

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Y.; J. Zhang; C. P. Nielsen

    2014-01-01

    To examine the efficacy of China's actions to control atmospheric pollution, three levels of growth of energy consumption and three levels of implementation of emission controls are estimated, generating a total of nine combined activity-emission control scenarios that are then used to estimate trends of national emissions of primary air pollutants through 2030. The emission control strategies are expected to have more effects than the energy paths on the fu...

  19. Trends in evolution of 5S rRNA of deuterostomes: bases and homogeneous clusters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Maria Rodrigues Subacius

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Evolution of metazoan 5S rRNA sequences was analyzed through base composition and types, location and frequency of clustered bases. Characters from sequences of protostomes did not show regular trends as compared with paleontology dating or organism complexity. Trends of increasing G and C, stronger in G clusters, and decreasing A and U, were detected in deuterostomes, in parallel with evolution of complexity. The multifunctional domain 71-104 was highlighted among conserved stretches. Clusters of C were typical of helices. Those of G were longer, extending from helices into loops or related to bulges, which is suggestive of functional significance. Deuterostomian trends were installed early in the lineage and reached full development in aquatic organisms, not increasing further after reptiles. It can be suggested that ribosomal RNA structures participated in deuterostomian high regulatory complexity, either specifically or as part of the widespread processes of chromosomal regionalization.

  20. Infodemiology of status epilepticus: A systematic validation of the Google Trends-based search queries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Bacigaluppi, Susanna; Robba, Chiara; Nardone, Raffaele; Trinka, Eugen; Brigo, Francesco

    2016-02-01

    People increasingly use Google looking for health-related information. We previously demonstrated that in English-speaking countries most people use this search engine to obtain information on status epilepticus (SE) definition, types/subtypes, and treatment. Now, we aimed at providing a quantitative analysis of SE-related web queries. This analysis represents an advancement, with respect to what was already previously discussed, in that the Google Trends (GT) algorithm has been further refined and correlational analyses have been carried out to validate the GT-based query volumes. Google Trends-based SE-related query volumes were well correlated with information concerning causes and pharmacological and nonpharmacological treatments. Google Trends can provide both researchers and clinicians with data on realities and contexts that are generally overlooked and underexplored by classic epidemiology. In this way, GT can foster new epidemiological studies in the field and can complement traditional epidemiological tools.

  1. BRAVO/TeleTrend: a comprehensive WWW-based neuromonitoring system for the neurosurgery ICU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nenov, V I; Buxey, F; Yamaguchi, Y

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes BRAVO/TeleTrend--a comprehensive client/server-based system for remote access, review and analyses of continuously acquired multiparametric physiological data from Intensive Care unit (ICU) patients. The system is designed as a distributed three tier model and implemented in Java (Sun Microsystems). TeleTrend is a data review package, which interfaces to existing physiological bedside monitors such as the BRAVO suite of products (Nicolet Biomedical, Madison, WI) and the vital signs monitors compatible with the Unity Network (Marquette Electronics, Milwaukee, WI). It does not transfer over the web the entire patient record, which can be hundreds of megabytes. Instead, it provides tools to view a compressed representation of the raw data in a trend display and to zoom into the raw data if needed. Thus, it eliminates the need for a high-bandwidth Internet connection and makes possible the use of a slower modem access to the vast amount of physiological data acquired per patient. In addition, TeleTrend features a rule-based module capable of generating clinical alerts, which is a potentially useful tool for neurointensivists and other critical care personnel. Finally, TeleTrend is intended as a multi-user, semi real-time telemedical application, which features built-in white-board and chat components. These components allow several physicians at different locations around the world to simultaneously view and brainstorm over critical chunks of continuously recorded raw and trend data. By allowing the end-user user to switch on-the-fly from monitoring patients in one ICU to those in another, and by integrating an HL7 interface TeleTrend steps over the boundaries of a single ICU. Thus, it can be provide a medical enterprise-wide solution to the remote access of an important component of the electronic patient medical record. Currently in house validation, verification and alpha testing of the system are underway.

  2. Bomber design trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spearman, M. L.

    1986-01-01

    Some basic trends in bomber aircraft are traced from the pre-World War I era to the present time. The historic review includes bombers of many countries. The primary discussion, however, will be based on U.S. bomber programs and, to the extent possible, on USSR bomber programs. The bomber aircraft will be examined in terms of performance and mission capability.Characteristics will include power or thrust loading, wing loading, maximum speed, cruising speed, weight and weight distribution, and payload. These trends can be used to indicate the rationale for certain design types. Performance characteristics can be used to indicate potential mission objectives. The overall design trends should be useful in revealing the influence of mission objectives, the influence of advanced technology and, in turn, may be useful in predicting likely future trends.

  3. Great Development Trends of the World and China in the Future%世界和国家发展的超大趋势

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    顾朝林

    2014-01-01

    本文主要论述了未来世界和中国发展的一些超大趋势,主要涉及人口和城镇化、经济和贸易、科学和技术、资源和环境、社会转型和绿色发展。文章认为:全球人口数量将进一步增长,尤其中产阶级和老龄人口会急剧增加,全球经济也将快速发展,但区域不平衡和发达国家债务危机会加剧,资源和环境的压力随着技术进步会趋于好转,第三次工业革命处在孕育之中。对中国而言,世界最大的经济体、全球制造业王国和最大的城镇化国家已经无容置疑,但社会转型将可能引发诸多的城市问题、社会问题和空间不平衡问题,走绿色发展应该是未来中国的必然选择。%This article discussed some of great development trends of world and China in the future. They mainly related to population and urbanization, economic and trade, science and technology, resources and environment, social transformation and green development. The Paper considered that the global population will be continual growth, especially the middle class and the aging population will increase dramatically. The global economy will develop rapidly, but the regional imbalances and developed countries debt crisis will intensifies, pressures on the resources and environment will increasingly as improved technologies. It is possible that the third industrial revolution will be in gestation. For China, it is no doubt to become the world’s largest economy body, the largest manufacturing bases and the largest urbanization country in the world, but the social transformation will likely lead to many problems, such as urban, social and spatial imbalances, for this reason it is to take a green development road that should be China ’s inevitable choice in the future.

  4. The Future Direction of the Stamford Public Schools: The Impact of Policy Trends on Public Education. Stamford Educational Public Policy Impact Study. Volume I.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feld, Marcia Marker; And Others

    In the last decade, Stamford has been transformed from a suburban town to an urban center of national renown. A responsive yet directive public school system is critical in preserving a feeling of community. The Stamford Educational Planning Committee, a team of interdisciplinary professionals and a broad-based community group, examined trends in…

  5. Modeling pollen time series using seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS smoothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo, Jesús; Rivero, Rosario; Romero-Morte, Jorge; Fernández-González, Federico; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

    2017-02-01

    Analysis of airborne pollen concentrations provides valuable information on plant phenology and is thus a useful tool in agriculture-for predicting harvests in crops such as the olive and for deciding when to apply phytosanitary treatments-as well as in medicine and the environmental sciences. Variations in airborne pollen concentrations, moreover, are indicators of changing plant life cycles. By modeling pollen time series, we can not only identify the variables influencing pollen levels but also predict future pollen concentrations. In this study, airborne pollen time series were modeled using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) smoothing (STL). The data series-daily Poaceae pollen concentrations over the period 2006-2014-was broken up into seasonal and residual (stochastic) components. The seasonal component was compared with data on Poaceae flowering phenology obtained by field sampling. Residuals were fitted to a model generated from daily temperature and rainfall values, and daily pollen concentrations, using partial least squares regression (PLSR). This method was then applied to predict daily pollen concentrations for 2014 (independent validation data) using results for the seasonal component of the time series and estimates of the residual component for the period 2006-2013. Correlation between predicted and observed values was r = 0.79 (correlation coefficient) for the pre-peak period (i.e., the period prior to the peak pollen concentration) and r = 0.63 for the post-peak period. Separate analysis of each of the components of the pollen data series enables the sources of variability to be identified more accurately than by analysis of the original non-decomposed data series, and for this reason, this procedure has proved to be a suitable technique for analyzing the main environmental factors influencing airborne pollen concentrations.

  6. Modeling pollen time series using seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS smoothing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo, Jesús; Rivero, Rosario; Romero-Morte, Jorge; Fernández-González, Federico; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

    2016-08-01

    Analysis of airborne pollen concentrations provides valuable information on plant phenology and is thus a useful tool in agriculture—for predicting harvests in crops such as the olive and for deciding when to apply phytosanitary treatments—as well as in medicine and the environmental sciences. Variations in airborne pollen concentrations, moreover, are indicators of changing plant life cycles. By modeling pollen time series, we can not only identify the variables influencing pollen levels but also predict future pollen concentrations. In this study, airborne pollen time series were modeled using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) smoothing (STL). The data series—daily Poaceae pollen concentrations over the period 2006-2014—was broken up into seasonal and residual (stochastic) components. The seasonal component was compared with data on Poaceae flowering phenology obtained by field sampling. Residuals were fitted to a model generated from daily temperature and rainfall values, and daily pollen concentrations, using partial least squares regression (PLSR). This method was then applied to predict daily pollen concentrations for 2014 (independent validation data) using results for the seasonal component of the time series and estimates of the residual component for the period 2006-2013. Correlation between predicted and observed values was r = 0.79 (correlation coefficient) for the pre-peak period (i.e., the period prior to the peak pollen concentration) and r = 0.63 for the post-peak period. Separate analysis of each of the components of the pollen data series enables the sources of variability to be identified more accurately than by analysis of the original non-decomposed data series, and for this reason, this procedure has proved to be a suitable technique for analyzing the main environmental factors influencing airborne pollen concentrations.

  7. Modeling pollen time series using seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS smoothing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo, Jesús; Rivero, Rosario; Romero-Morte, Jorge; Fernández-González, Federico; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

    2017-02-01

    Analysis of airborne pollen concentrations provides valuable information on plant phenology and is thus a useful tool in agriculture—for predicting harvests in crops such as the olive and for deciding when to apply phytosanitary treatments—as well as in medicine and the environmental sciences. Variations in airborne pollen concentrations, moreover, are indicators of changing plant life cycles. By modeling pollen time series, we can not only identify the variables influencing pollen levels but also predict future pollen concentrations. In this study, airborne pollen time series were modeled using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) smoothing (STL). The data series—daily Poaceae pollen concentrations over the period 2006-2014—was broken up into seasonal and residual (stochastic) components. The seasonal component was compared with data on Poaceae flowering phenology obtained by field sampling. Residuals were fitted to a model generated from daily temperature and rainfall values, and daily pollen concentrations, using partial least squares regression (PLSR). This method was then applied to predict daily pollen concentrations for 2014 (independent validation data) using results for the seasonal component of the time series and estimates of the residual component for the period 2006-2013. Correlation between predicted and observed values was r = 0.79 (correlation coefficient) for the pre-peak period (i.e., the period prior to the peak pollen concentration) and r = 0.63 for the post-peak period. Separate analysis of each of the components of the pollen data series enables the sources of variability to be identified more accurately than by analysis of the original non-decomposed data series, and for this reason, this procedure has proved to be a suitable technique for analyzing the main environmental factors influencing airborne pollen concentrations.

  8. Omics-based nanomedicine: the future of personalized oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenblum, Daniel; Peer, Dan

    2014-09-28

    The traditional "one treatment fits all" paradigm disregards the heterogeneity between cancer patients, and within a particular tumor, thus limit the success of common treatments. Moreover, current treatment lacks specificity and therefore most of the anticancer drugs induce severe adverse effects. Personalized medicine aims to individualize therapeutic interventions, based on the growing knowledge of the human multiple '-oms' (e.g. genome, epigenome, transcriptome, proteome and metabolome), which has led to the discovery of various biomarkers that can be used to detect early stage cancers and predict tumor progression, drug response, and clinical outcome. Nanomedicine, the application of nanotechnology to healthcare, holds great promise for revolutionizing disease management such as drug delivery, molecular imaging, reduced adverse effects and the ability to contain both therapeutic and diagnostic modalities simultaneously termed theranostics. Personalizednanomedicine has the power of combining nanomedicine with clinical and molecular biomarkers ("OMICS" data) achieving improve prognosis and disease management as well as individualized drug selection and dosage profiling to ensure maximal efficacy and safety. Tumor's heterogeneity sets a countless challenge for future personalized therapy in cancer, however the use of multi-parameter 'omic's data for specific molecular biomarkers recognition together with versatile drug delivery nanocarriers, which could target concomitantly and specifically tumor cells subpopulations, might heralds a brighter future for personalized cancer management. In this review, we present the current leading technologies available for personalized oncology. We discusses the immense potential of combining the best of these two worlds, nanomedicine and high throughput OMICS technologies to pave the way towards cancer personalized medicine.

  9. Understanding Climate Change Impacts in a Cholera Endemic Megacity: Disease Trends, Hydroclimatic Indicators and Near Future-Term Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S. S.; Hasan, M. A.; Serman, E. A.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. While an endemic trend is getting stronger in the dry season, the post-monsoon season shows increased variability and is epidemic in nature. The pre-monsoon dry season is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year, followed by monsoon flood related propagation in later months of the year. Although the heavily populated and rapidly urbanizing Dhaka region has experienced noticeable shifts in pre monsoon temperature and precipitation patterns and subsequent monsoon variations, to date, there has not been any systematic study on linking the long-term disease trends with observed changes in hydroclimatic indicators. Here, we focus on the past 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings to develop projections for the next 30-year period. We focus on the dry and the wet season indicators individually, and develop trends of maximum rainfall intensity, lowest rainfall totals in the pre-monsoon period, number of consecutive dry days, number of wet days, and number of rainy days with greater than 500mm rainfall using a recently developed gridded data product - and compare with regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, and frequency of natural disasters. We then use a bias correction method to develop the next 30 years projections of CMIP5 Regional Climate Model outputs and impacts on cholera prevalence using a probabilistic forecasting approach.

  10. A hybrid design-based and model-based sampling approach to estimate the temporal trend of spatial means

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brus, D.J.; Gruijter, de J.J.

    2012-01-01

    This paper launches a hybrid sampling approach, entailing a design-based approach in space followed by a model-based approach in time, for estimating temporal trends of spatial means or totals. The underlying space–time process that generated the soil data is only partly described, viz. by a linear

  11. Thoughts on Future Trend of China's Garment Industry%关于中国服装行业未来走向的思考

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏学红

    2013-01-01

    With the global economic situation, the clothing industry competition intensifies day by day. This is not only an opportunity but also a challenge. This article discusses the trend of future Chinese garment industry from the current situation, innovation, and talent cultivation. In short, as long as they have an accurate location, adhere to their own, be in a persistent way, be brave to make innovations, the future internationalization of Chinese garment industry is worthy of expecting.%本文从服装行业的创新和服装人才培养两个方面,论述中国服装行业未来的走向。中国的服装行业只要定位准确,坚持自己,持之以恒,勇于创新,未来的国际化还是指日可待的。

  12. Future opportunities and future trends for e-infrastructures and life sciences: going beyond grid to enable life science data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fotis ePsomopoulos

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available With the increasingly rapid growth of data in Life Sciences we are witnessing a major transition in the way research is conducted, from hypothesis-driven studies to data-driven simulations of whole systems. In the context of the European Grid Infrastructure Community Forum 2014 (Helsinki, 19–23 May 2014, a workshop was held aimed at understanding the state of the art of Grid/Cloud computing in EU research as viewed from within the field of Life Sciences. The workshop brought together Life Science researchers and infrastructure providers from around Europe and facilitated networking between them within the context of EGI. The first part of the workshop included talks from key infrastructures and projects within the Life Sciences community. This was complemented by technical talks that established the key aspects present in major research approaches. Finally, the discussion phase provided significant insights into the road ahead with proposals for possible collaborations and suggestions for future actions.

  13. Alumina Based 500 C Electronic Packaging Systems and Future Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liang-Yu

    2012-01-01

    NASA space and aeronautical missions for probing the inner solar planets as well as for in situ monitoring and control of next-generation aeronautical engines require high-temperature environment operable sensors and electronics. A 96% aluminum oxide and Au thick-film metallization based packaging system including chip-level packages, printed circuit board, and edge-connector is in development for high temperature SiC electronics. An electronic packaging system based on this material system was successfully tested and demonstrated with SiC electronics at 500 C for over 10,000 hours in laboratory conditions previously. In addition to the tests in laboratory environments, this packaging system has more recently been tested with a SiC junction field effect transistor (JFET) on low earth orbit through the NASA Materials on the International Space Station Experiment 7 (MISSE7). A SiC JFET with a packaging system composed of a 96% alumina chip-level package and an alumina printed circuit board mounted on a data acquisition circuit board was launched as a part of the MISSE7 suite to International Space Station via a Shuttle mission and tested on the orbit for eighteen months. A summary of results of tests in both laboratory and space environments will be presented. The future development of alumina based high temperature packaging using co-fired material systems for improved performance at high temperature and more feasible mass production will also be discussed.

  14. Lipid Based Nanosystems for Curcumin: Past, Present and Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayak, Aditya P; Mills, Tom; Norton, Ian

    2016-01-01

    Curcumin is one of the principle bioactive compounds used in the ayurvedic medicine system that has the history of over 5000 years for human use. Curcumin an "Indian Gold" is used to treat simple ailments like the common cold to severe life threatening diseases like cancer, and HIV. Though its contribution is immense for the health protection and disease prevention, its clinical use is limited due to its susceptible nature to alkaline pH, high temperature, presence of oxygen and light. Hence it becomes extremely difficult to maintain its bioactivity during processing, storage and consumption. Recent advancements in the application of nanotechnology to curcumin offer an opportunity to enhance its stability, bioactivity and to overcome its pharmacokinetic mismatch. This in turn helps to bridge the gaps that exist between its bench top research data to its clinical findings. Among the various types of nano/micro delivery systems, lipid based delivery systems are well studied and are the best suited delivery systems to enhance the stability and pharmacokinetic profile of curcumin both for pharma and the food application. In the current review, effort will be made to recapitulate the work done in the past to use lipid based delivery systems (liposomes, solid lipid nanoparticles, and emulsions) to enhance the application of curcumin for health promotion and disease prevention. Further, future prospects for the utilization of these lipid-based delivery systems will be discussed in detail.

  15. Status and future transition of rapid urbanizing landscape in central Western Ghats - CA based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bharath, S..; Rajan, K. S.; Ramachandra, T. V.

    2014-11-01

    The land use changes in forested landscape are highly complex and dynamic, affected by the natural, socio-economic, cultural, political and other factors. The remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) techniques coupled with multi-criteria evaluation functions such as Markov-cellular automata (CA-Markov) model helps in analysing intensity, extent and future forecasting of human activities affecting the terrestrial biosphere. Karwar taluk of Central Western Ghats in Karnataka state, India has seen rapid transitions in its forest cover due to various anthropogenic activities, primarily driven by major industrial activities. A study based on Landsat and IRS derived data along with CA-Markov method has helped in characterizing the patterns and trends of land use changes over a period of 2004-2013, expected transitions was predicted for a set of scenarios through 2013-2022. The analysis reveals the loss of pristine forest cover from 75.51% to 67.36% (1973 to 2013) and increase in agriculture land as well as built-up area of 8.65% (2013), causing impact on local flora and fauna. The other factors driving these changes are the aggregated level of demand for land, local and regional effects of land use activities such as deforestation, improper practices in expansion of agriculture and infrastructure development, deteriorating natural resources availability. The spatio temporal models helped in visualizing on-going changes apart from prediction of likely changes. The CA-Markov based analysis provides us insights into the localized changes impacting these regions and can be useful in developing appropriate mitigation management approaches based on the modelled future impacts. This necessitates immediate measures for minimizing the future impacts.

  16. Shifts in search engine development: A review of past, present and future trends in research on search engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid R. Jamali

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The World Wide Web has developed fast and many people use search engines to capture information from the Web. This article reviews past, present and future of search engines. Papers published in four major Web and information management conferences were surveyed to track research interests in the last five years. Web search and information retrieval topics such as ranking, filtering and query formulation are still hot topics among researchers. The most important shifts and issues of the future of search engines are mentioned too. Search engine companies are trying to capture the Deep Web and extract structured data to offer high quality results. Using Web page structure, shared search engines, expert recommendations and different mobile search facilities seem to be features of the next generation of search engines.

  17. The history and future trends of ocean warming-induced gas hydrate dissociation in the SW Barents Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadakkepuliyambatta, Sunil; Chand, Shyam; Bünz, Stefan

    2017-01-01

    The Barents Sea is a major part of the Arctic where the Gulf Stream mixes with the cold Arctic waters. Late Cenozoic uplift and glacial erosion have resulted in hydrocarbon leakage from reservoirs, evolution of fluid flow systems, shallow gas accumulations, and hydrate formation throughout the Barents Sea. Here we integrate seismic data observations of gas hydrate accumulations along with gas hydrate stability modeling to analyze the impact of warming ocean waters in the recent past and future (1960-2060). Seismic observations of bottom-simulating reflectors (BSRs) indicate significant thermogenic gas input into the hydrate stability zone throughout the SW Barents Sea. The distribution of BSR is controlled primarily by fluid flow focusing features, such as gas chimneys and faults. Warming ocean bottom temperatures over the recent past and in future (1960-2060) can result in hydrate dissociation over an area covering 0.03-38% of the SW Barents Sea.

  18. Testing the Power of Technical Analysis for Forecasting the Market Trend and Future Price in FOREX Market

    OpenAIRE

    Kermanshahi, Shahrad

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT: According to the Bank for International Settlements, the preliminary global trading in foreign exchange markets averaged $5.3 trillion per day in April 2013. However, there is always volatility and uncertainty in FOREX market. In accordance with this issue, predicting the future prices and market movements are crucial for traders. In order to understand FOREX market better, the study is assisted by one of the most famous and popular methods which is technical analysis. The aim of th...

  19. POSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR SICILIAN CEREAL CROPPING IN THE LIGHT OF CURRENT TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

    OpenAIRE

    Crescimanno, Maria; De Stefano, V; Galati, Antonino

    2008-01-01

    This paper sets out the results of a research project carried out by the University of Palermo and financed by the Sicilian Region, which aims to establish the impact of the Fischler Reform on Sicilian agriculture, and to project future scenarios that take into account some of the changes that the production process may undergo in the Region, following both the application of the Reform itself (now in force) and the eventual application of indications contained in the Health check. The impact...

  20. Human capital in the national system of labor relations: evaluation criteria, trend analysis, challenges for the future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.P. Melnychuk

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article describes the situation in the sphere of formation and use of human capital. The author formulates direct and indirect criteria that can be used to assess trends and opportunities to use knowledge in the form of capital in Ukraine. The paper carries out the relevant analysis. It argues that the current situation in the sphere of social and labor relations is not conducive to the acquisition of professional knowledge, skills and work skills which are formed as a result of significant investments, the status of capital. This complicates accelerated and anticipated socio-economic development of the state, requires the definition and implementation of decisive steps aimed at streamlining the relations in the sphere of human capital.

  1. Existing Design Trends for Tankers and Bulk Carriers - Design Changes for Improvement of the EEDI in the Future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Hans Otto Holmegaard; Lützen, Marie

    for the generic modelling. A comprehensive regression analysis has been carried out to find the formulas to be used as a basis for the model. Furthermore, it was found during the analysis that the design trend of bulk carriers and tankers has moved in a wrong direction seen from an energy saving point of view......To get an idea of the reduction in propulsion power and associated emissions by varying the speed and other ship design main parameters, a generic model for parameter studies has been developed. With only a few input parameters of which the maximum deadweight capacity is the primary one, a proposal...... for the main dimensions and the necessary installed power is calculated by the model. By adjusting the vessel design, i.e. the main parameters, and varying the speed it is possible to observe the influence of the different parameters on the power demand. The model can be used to calculate exhaust gas emissions...

  2. Satellite-based analysis of recent trends in the ecohydrology of a semi-arid region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gokmen

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We present a regional framework for an integrated and spatiotemporally distributed assessment of human-induced trends in the hydrology and the associated ecological health of a semi-arid basin where both human activities (i.e. agriculture and natural ecosystems are highly groundwater dependent. To achieve this, we analysed the recent trends (from year 2000 to 2010 in precipitation, evapotranspiration (actual and potential and vegetation greenness (i.e. NDVI using a combination of satellite and ground-based observations. The trend assessment was applied for the semi-arid Konya Basin (Turkey, one of the largest endorheic basins in the world. The results revealed a consistent increasing trend of both yearly evapotranspiration (totally 63 MCM yr−1 from croplands and mean NDVI (about 0.004 NDVI yr−1 in irrigated croplands, especially concentrating in the plain part of the basin, while no significant trends were observed for the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration variables. On the contrary, a consistent decreasing trend of both yearly evapotranspiration (totally −2.1 MCM yr−1 and mean NDVI (−0.001 NDVI yr−1 was observed in the wetlands, which also cannot be explained by trends in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The emerging picture suggest that the greening trend of the vegetation and increasing of evapotranspiration in the plain are related to land cover changes (i.e. conversion into irrigated croplands and to the intensification of the supplementary irrigation for agriculture, which in turn caused drying out of some wetlands and the natural vegetation which mostly depend on the groundwater, the main source of irrigation water as well. Our study presented an example of the utility of spatially and temporally continuous RS data in assessing the regional trends in hydrological and ecological variables and their interactions in a spatially distributed manner in a semi-arid region, which can also be adapted to

  3. Flash Floods and Storm-Triggered Debris Avalanches in the Appalachians and Possible Trends in a Future Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, D.; Hong, Y.; Lynch, M. J.; Shen, X.; Leslie, L. M.; Mahmood, R.; Duan, Q.; Rappin, E.; Li, Y.; Luo, J.

    2014-12-01

    This study analyzes storm-triggered landslides in the US Appalachians, in the current geological setting. Concave valleys that favor the convergence of surface runoff are the primary locales for landslides. If the slopes are weathered to the same degree and have the same vegetation coverage, slope orientation (azimuthal) is not critical for slope stability. However, it is found that for the region south of the Black Mountains (North Carolina), north-facing slopes are more prone to slide, because the northern slopes usually are grass slopes for the regions not limited by annual precipitation (water availability). For the slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains, south facing slopes are more prone to slide. Deforestation and topsoil erosion are critical contributors to the massive sizes of the debris flows. Gravity measurements over the past decade reveal that geological conditions, the chute system and underground cracks over the region are stable, and sliding material is plentiful. Future changes in storm-triggered landslide frequency are primarily controlled by changes in extreme precipitation. Thus, a series of ensemble climate model experiments is carried out of possible changes in future extreme precipitation events, using the WRF model forced by temperature perturbations. The focus is the impact on storm-triggered landslides, and over 50 locations are identified as prone to future landslides. In a future warmer climate, more severe extreme precipitation events are projected because of increased vapor content and more frequent passage of tropical cyclone remnants. There also is a likely shift of tropical cyclone tracks and associated extreme precipitation, and the Appalachians scarps cluster center is expected to move westward. The remote sensing way of detecting unstable regions are applicable to other regions of interest. We further examine the following regions (except the Fuji Mount) recently (since 1900) experienced volcanic eruption: Pelee, Agung, Elchichon

  4. Epidemiological and mortality trends in infective endocarditis, a 17-year population-based prospective study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiavarelli, Mario; Scalese, Marco; Nencioni, Cesira; Valentini, Silvia; Guerrini, Francesco; D’Aiello, Incoronata; Picchi, Andrea; De Sensi, Francesco; Habib, Gilbert

    2017-01-01

    Background The population at risk, the clinical and microbiological features of infective endocarditis (IE) have changed. Aim of our study was to evaluate the contemporary epidemiological trends, over a 17-year period in a definite region of Tuscany, Italy, to analyze the clinical outcomes and associated prognostic factors. Methods From 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2014, all patients with a definite diagnosis of IE were prospectively entered in a data-base. The Health-Care system data-base was interrogated to capture patients who could have been missed. The final dataset derived by the merging of the two data-bases. Results Incidence rate of IE was 4.6/100,000/y with a significant linear incidence increase. In hospitalized patients the incidence was 1.27/1,000 admissions. Over age 65 incidence rate was 11.7/100,000/y. Male/female ratio was 1.54:1. A temporal trend towards an increase in the mean population age was found (P=0.033). There was an increase in the incidence of Health-care associated IE, P=0.016. The most common microorganisms were staphylococcus aureus (25%) and coagulase-negative staphylococci (22%). In-hospital mortality was 24%. A trend towards an increase in mortality rate was found (P=0.055). Independent predictors of mortality were older age, S. aureus infection, heart failure, septic shock and persistent bacteremia. Conclusions Our study confirms an increasing mortality trend in IE, although with a borderline significance. Elderly forms are associated with poor prognosis and higher than 1-year mortality rate even in the multivariate analysis. Ageing population, increase in healthcare-associated and staphylococcal infections, may explain the rise of IE incidence and of the mortality trend. PMID:28164010

  5. TRENDS IN DELIVERING EDUCATIONAL SERVICES WITHIN THE KNOWLEDGE-BASED SOCIETY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZAMFIR Andreea

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Education and implicitly educational services become extremely important in the context of the knowledge-based society. Therefore, this study investigates the trends in delivering services identified through research of literature, as well as based on personal experience in providing educational services. It has been concluded that information and communication technology creates a vast opportunity to improve the way of delivering educational services within the knowledge-based society, to develop (educate peoples awareness of the need for knowledge, as well as their skills for the knowledge-based society.

  6. Acidification in Three Lake District Tarns: Historical Iong term trends and modelled future behaviour under changing sulphate and nitrate deposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. G. Whitchead

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Three upland Lake District Tarns, Scoat, Greendale and Burnmoor, have been evaluated using MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments to reconstruct past, present and future chemical behaviour. The modelled historical changes in acidity are compared with palaeoecological estimation of pH to demonstrate model validity. Chemistry as simulated for all anions and cations and two of the three lakes are shown to have undergone significant acidification. The effects of changing atmospheric pollution levels on lake chemistry is evaluated and 80-90% sulphur reduction levels are required to achieve zero alkalinity. The impacts of increased nitrogen deposition are assessed and are shown to further delay reversibility.

  7. Molecular and cellular biology of cerebral arteriovenous malformations: a review of current concepts and future trends in treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangel-Castilla, Leonardo; Russin, Jonathan J; Martinez-Del-Campo, Eduardo; Soriano-Baron, Hector; Spetzler, Robert F; Nakaji, Peter

    2014-09-01

    Arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) are classically described as congenital static lesions. However, in addition to rupturing, AVMs can undergo growth, remodeling, and regression. These phenomena are directly related to cellular, molecular, and physiological processes. Understanding these relationships is essential to direct future diagnostic and therapeutic strategies. The authors performed a search of the contemporary literature to review current information regarding the molecular and cellular biology of AVMs and how this biology will impact their potential future management. A PubMed search was performed using the key words "genetic," "molecular," "brain," "cerebral," "arteriovenous," "malformation," "rupture," "management," "embolization," and "radiosurgery." Only English-language papers were considered. The reference lists of all papers selected for full-text assessment were reviewed. Current concepts in genetic polymorphisms, growth factors, angiopoietins, apoptosis, endothelial cells, pathophysiology, clinical syndromes, medical treatment (including tetracycline and microRNA-18a), radiation therapy, endovascular embolization, and surgical treatment as they apply to AVMs are discussed. Understanding the complex cellular biology, physiology, hemodynamics, and flow-related phenomena of AVMs is critical for defining and predicting their behavior, developing novel drug treatments, and improving endovascular and surgical therapies.

  8. Reference hydrologic networks I. The status and potential future directions of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Higgins, Hélène; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Marsh, Terry; Looser, Ulrich

    2012-01-01

    Identifying climate-driven trends in river flows on a global basis is hampered by a lack of long, quality time series data for rivers with relatively undisturbed regimes. This is a global problem compounded by the lack of support for essential long-term monitoring. Experience demonstrates that, with clear strategic objectives, and the support of sponsoring organizations, reference hydrologic networks can constitute an exceptionally valuable data source to effectively identify, quantify and interpret hydrological change—the speed and magnitude of which is expected to a be a primary driver of water management and flood alleviation strategies through the future—and for additional applications. Reference hydrologic networks have been developed in many countries in the past few decades. These collections of streamflow gauging stations, that are maintained and operated with the intention of observing how the hydrology of watersheds responds to variations in climate, are described. The status of networks under development is summarized. We suggest a plan of actions to make more effective use of this collection of networks.

  9. Geopolitical Trends and Security Challenges across the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific Regions; Strategic Insights, v. 10, Special issue (October 2011), 28-35. Topic: Global Trends and Future Warfare ; Part I: Alternative Perspectives: Traditional Powers, Rising Powers, and the Developing World

    OpenAIRE

    Parthasarathy, G.

    2011-01-01

    This article appeared in Strategic Insights, v.10, Special issue (October 2011), 28-35. Topic: Global Trends and Future Warfare ; Part I: Alternative Perspectives: Traditional Powers, Rising Powers, and the Developing World Approved for public display, distribution unlimited

  10. Current advances and future perspectives in extrusion-based bioprinting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozbolat, Ibrahim T; Hospodiuk, Monika

    2016-01-01

    Extrusion-based bioprinting (EBB) is a rapidly growing technology that has made substantial progress during the last decade. It has great versatility in printing various biologics, including cells, tissues, tissue constructs, organ modules and microfluidic devices, in applications from basic research and pharmaceutics to clinics. Despite the great benefits and flexibility in printing a wide range of bioinks, including tissue spheroids, tissue strands, cell pellets, decellularized matrix components, micro-carriers and cell-laden hydrogels, the technology currently faces several limitations and challenges. These include impediments to organ fabrication, the limited resolution of printed features, the need for advanced bioprinting solutions to transition the technology bench to bedside, the necessity of new bioink development for rapid, safe and sustainable delivery of cells in a biomimetically organized microenvironment, and regulatory concerns to transform the technology into a product. This paper, presenting a first-time comprehensive review of EBB, discusses the current advancements in EBB technology and highlights future directions to transform the technology to generate viable end products for tissue engineering and regenerative medicine.

  11. Software-Based Challenges of Developing the Future Distribution Grid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stewart, Emma; Kiliccote, Sila; McParland, Charles

    2014-06-01

    The software that the utility industry currently uses may be insufficient to analyze the distribution grid as it rapidly modernizes to include active resources such as distributed generation, switch and voltage control, automation, and increasingly complex loads. Although planners and operators have traditionally viewed the distribution grid as a passive load, utilities and consultants increasingly need enhanced analysis that incorporates active distribution grid loads in order to ensure grid reliability. Numerous commercial and open-source tools are available for analyzing distribution grid systems. These tools vary in complexity from providing basic load-flow and capacity analysis under steady-state conditions to time-series analysis and even geographical representations of dynamic and transient events. The need for each type of analysis is not well understood in the industry, nor are the reasons that distribution analysis requires different techniques and tools both from those now available and from those used for transmission analysis. In addition, there is limited understanding of basic capability of the tools and how they should be practically applied to the evolving distribution system. The study reviews the features and state of the art capability of current tools, including usability and visualization, basic analysis functionality, advanced analysis including inverters, and renewable generation and load modeling. We also discuss the need for each type of distribution grid system analysis. In addition to reviewing basic functionality current models, we discuss dynamics and transient simulation in detail and draw conclusions about existing software?s ability to address the needs of the future distribution grid as well as the barriers to modernization of the distribution grid that are posed by the current state of software and model development. Among our conclusions are that accuracy, data transfer, and data processing abilities are key to future

  12. Future climate trends from a first-difference atmospheric carbon dioxide regression model involving emissions scenarios for business as usual and for peak fossil fuel

    CERN Document Server

    Leggett, L M W

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the implications of the future continuation of the demonstrated past (1960-2012) strong correlation between first-difference atmospheric CO2 and global surface temperature. It does this, for the period from the present to 2050, for a comprehensive range of future global fossil fuel energy use scenarios. The results show that even for a business-as-usual (the mid-level IPCC) fossil fuel use estimate, global surface temperature will rise at a slower rate than for the recent period 1960-2000. Concerning peak fossil fuel, for the most common scenario the currently observed (1998-2013)temperature plateau will turn into a decrease. The observed trend to date for temperature is compared with that for global climate disasters: these peaked in 2005 and are notably decreasing. The temperature and disaster results taken together are consistent with either a reduced business-as-usual fossil fuel use scenario into the future, or a peak fossil fuel scenario, but not with the standard business-as-usu...

  13. Emerging medical informatics research trends detection based on MeSH terms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyu, Peng-Hui; Yao, Qiang; Mao, Jin; Zhang, Shi-Jing

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyze the research trends of medical informatics over the last 12 years. A new method based on MeSH terms was proposed to identify emerging topics and trends of medical informatics research. Informetric methods and visualization technologies were applied to investigate research trends of medical informatics. The metric of perspective factor (PF) embedding MeSH terms was appropriately employed to assess the perspective quality for journals. The emerging MeSH terms have changed dramatically over the last 12 years, identifying two stages of medical informatics: the "medical imaging stage" and the "medical informatics stage". The focus of medical informatics has shifted from acquisition and storage of healthcare data by integrating computational, informational, cognitive and organizational sciences to semantic analysis for problem solving and clinical decision-making. About 30 core journals were determined by Bradford's Law in the last 3 years in this area. These journals, with high PF values, have relative high perspective quality and lead the trend of medical informatics.

  14. Analysis of trends and dominant periodicities in drought variables in India: A wavelet transform based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Nitin; Gupta, Divya; Suryavanshi, Shakti; Adamowski, Jan; Madramootoo, Chandra A.

    2016-12-01

    In this study, seasonal trends as well as dominant and significant periods of variability of drought variables were analyzed for 30 rainfall subdivisions in India over 141 years (1871-2012). Standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used as a meteorological drought indicator, and various drought variables (monsoon SPI, non-monsoon SPI, yearly SPI, annual drought duration, annual drought severity and annual drought peak) were analyzed. Discrete wavelet transform was used in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall test to analyze trends and dominant periodicities associated with the drought variables. Furthermore, continuous wavelet transform (CWT) based global wavelet spectrum was used to analyze significant periods of variability associated with the drought variables. From the trend analysis, we observed that over the second half of the 20th century, drought occurrences increased significantly in subdivisions of Northeast and Central India. In both short-term (2-8 years) and decadal (16-32 years) periodicities, the drought variables were found to influence the trend. However, CWT analysis indicated that the dominant periodic components were not significant for most of the geographical subdivisions. Although inter-annual and inter-decadal periodic components play an important role, they may not completely explain the variability associated with the drought variables across the country.

  15. Symbolic representation based on trend features for knowledge discovery in long time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hong YIN; Shu-qiang YANG; Xiao-qian ZHU; Shao-dong MA; Lu-min ZHANG

    2015-01-01

    The symbolic representation of time series has attracted much research interest recently. The high dimensionality typical of the data is challenging, especially as the time series becomes longer. The wide distribution of sensors collecting more and more data exacerbates the problem. Representing a time series effectively is an essential task for decision-making activities such as classification, prediction, and knowledge discovery. In this paper, we propose a new symbolic representation method for long time series based on trend features, called trend feature symbolic approximation (TFSA). The method uses a two-step mechanism to segment long time series rapidly. Unlike some previous symbolic methods, it focuses on retaining most of the trend features and patterns of the original series. A time series is represented by trend symbols, which are also suitable for use in knowledge discovery, such as association rules mining. TFSA provides the lower bounding guarantee. Experimental results show that, compared with some previous methods, it not only has better segmentation efficiency and classification accuracy, but also is applicable for use in knowledge discovery from time series.

  16. Nitrogen use in the global food system: past trends and future trajectories of agronomic performance, pollution, trade, and dietary demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lassaletta, Luis; Billen, Gilles; Garnier, Josette; Bouwman, Lex; Velazquez, Eduardo; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Gerber, James S.

    2016-09-01

    Nitrogen (N) limits crop and grass production, and it is an essential component of dietary proteins. However, N is mobile in the soil-plant system and can be lost to the environment. Estimates of N flows provide a critical tool for understanding and improving the sustainability and equity of the global food system. This letter describes an integrated analysis of changes in N in human diets, N use efficiency (NUE) of cropping and livestock systems, N pollution and N in traded food and feed products for 12 world regions for the period 1960-2050. The largest absolute change in consumption of animal proteins during the period 1960-2009 is seen in China, while the largest share of animal protein per capita is currently observed in North America, Europe and Oceania. Due to the substantial growth of the livestock sector, about three quarters of contemporary global crop production (expressed in protein and including fodder crops and bioenergy byproducts) is allocated to livestock. Trends and levels of NUE and N surpluses in crop production are also diverse, as some regions show soil N depletion (developing regions, e.g. Africa), improving efficiency (industrialized regions, e.g. USA and Europe) and excessive N use (e.g. China, India). Global trade between the 12 regions has increased by a factor of 7.5 for vegetable proteins and by a factor of 10 for animal proteins. The scenarios for 2050 demonstrate that it would be possible to feed the global population in 2050 with moderate animal protein consumption but with much less N pollution, and less international trade than today. In such a scenario, optimal allocation of N inputs among regions to maximize NUE would further decrease pollution, but would require increased levels of N trade comparable to those in a BAU scenario.

  17. Trends of psychology-related research on euthanasia: a qualitative software-based thematic analysis of journal abstracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caputo, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Euthanasia has received increasing attention in both academic and public debates as one of the most controversial issues. However, the contribution of psychology-related themes to the topic has had little role on these ongoing debates. The aim of the present study is twofold: (1) to explore the main themes relating to euthanasia as provided by psychology-related research; (2) to analyze the temporal trends of psychology-related research on euthanasia over the last decades. A comprehensive search of academic literature was conducted on PsychINFO database. A qualitative software-based thematic analysis was carried out on 602 journal abstracts published from 1935 to 2014. This study highlighted four different thematic areas which characterized the scientific discourse on euthanasia: (1) moral values, in terms of religious, philosophical, and social implications concerning the individual's decision to die; (2) professional ethics, in terms of health and social workers' legal responsibility in death assistance; (3) end-of-life care, with regard to medical options provided to support individuals nearing death; and (4) patient's right to healthcare, in terms of access to palliative care and better quality of dying. Euthanasia discourse over the last decades seems to be overall characterized by two main dimensions: (1) the increasing trend of social legitimacy and acceptability of euthanasia over time, which moved from ethical to healthcare issues; and (2) the curvilinear temporal trend about the request/provision process in euthanasia, which moved from patient's decision for ending life (mainly characterizing the most past and recent research) to the role of health professionals (with a peak in the 1990s). The results suggest palliative care as a potential future research area which can provide healthcare providers with skills to 'connect' with patients, understand patients' hidden agendas, and grant a good quality of life and dying process.

  18. End-User Attitudes towards Location-Based Services and Future Mobile Wireless Devices: The Students’ Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Cramariuc

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, location-enabled mobile phones are becoming more and more widespread. Various players in the mobile business forecast that, in the future, a significant part of total wireless revenue will come from Location-Based Services (LBS. An LBS system extracts information about the user’s geographical location and provides services based on the positioning information. A successful LBS service should create value for the end-user, by satisfying some of the users’ needs or wants, and at the same time preserving the key factors of the mobile wireless device, such as low costs, low battery consumption, and small size. From many users’ perspectives, location services and mobile location capabilities are still rather poorly known and poorly understood. The aim of this research is to investigate users’ views on the LBS, their requirements in terms of mobile device characteristics, their concerns in terms of privacy and usability, and their opinion on LBS applications that might increase the social wellbeing in the future wireless world. Our research is based on two surveys performed among 105 students (average student age: 24 years from two European technical universities. The survey questions were intended to solicit the youngsters’ views on present and future technological trends and on their perceived needs and wishes regarding Location-Based Services, with the aim of obtaining a better understanding of designer constraints when building a location receiver and generating new ideas related to potential future killer LBS applications.

  19. Review on current advances, future challenges and consideration issues for post-combustion CO2 capture using amine-based absorbents☆

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhiwu Liang; Kaiyun Fu; Raphael Idem; Paitoon Tontiwachwuthikul

    2016-01-01

    Among the current technologies for post-combustion CO2 capture, amine-based chemical absorption appears to be the most technologically mature and commercial y viable method. This review highlights the opportunities and challenges in post-combustion CO2 capture using amine-based chemical absorption technologies. In addi-tion, this review provides current types and emerging trends for chemical solvents. The issues and performance of amine solvents are reviewed and addressed in terms of thermodynamics, kinetics, mass transfer, regeneration and solvent management. This review also looks at emerging and future trends in post-combustion CO2 capture using chemical solvents in the near to mid-term.

  20. GIS-Based Planning and Modeling for Renewable Energy: Challenges and Future Research Avenues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd Resch

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In the face of the broad political call for an “energy turnaround”, we are currently witnessing three essential trends with regard to energy infrastructure planning, energy generation and storage: from planned production towards fluctuating production on the basis of renewable energy sources, from centralized generation towards decentralized generation and from expensive energy carriers towards cost-free energy carriers. These changes necessitate considerable modifications of the energy infrastructure. Even though most of these modifications are inherently motivated by geospatial questions and challenges, the integration of energy system models and Geographic Information Systems (GIS is still in its infancy. This paper analyzes the shortcomings of previous approaches in using GIS in renewable energy-related projects, extracts distinct challenges from these previous efforts and, finally, defines a set of core future research avenues for GIS-based energy infrastructure planning with a focus on the use of renewable energy. These future research avenues comprise the availability base data and their “geospatial awareness”, the development of a generic and unified data model, the usage of volunteered geographic information (VGI and crowdsourced data in analysis processes, the integration of 3D building models and 3D data analysis, the incorporation of network topologies into GIS, the harmonization of the heterogeneous views on aggregation issues in the fields of energy and GIS, fine-grained energy demand estimation from freely-available data sources, decentralized storage facility planning, the investigation of GIS-based public participation mechanisms, the transition from purely structural to operational planning, data privacy aspects and, finally, the development of a new dynamic power market design.