WorldWideScience

Sample records for future policy decisions

  1. Impact of policy decisions on the future environmental quality of Flanders, Belgium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Steertegem, M.; De Geest, C.; Vancraeynest, L.

    2010-01-01

    The Environmental Outlook 2030 of the Flemish Environment Agency examines to what extent (alternative) policy strategies allow for realizing the European and Flemish targets. This article illustrates two subjects from the scenario report: the future emissions of greenhouse gases and the particulate matter from transport and the future air quality based on the concentrations of fine particles and ozone. [nl

  2. Impacts and Implications of Future-oriented Technology Analysis for Policy and Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    SARITAS Ozcan; CAGNIN CRISTIANO; HAVAS Attila; MILES Ian

    2009-01-01

    Most of the papers in this special issue were presented at the Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) that took place in October 2008. They address a wide variety of issues in FTA including methods and policy and governance impacts with discussions and demonstrations at the regional and corporate levels.

  3. Improving energy decisions towards better scientific policy advice for a safe and secure future energy system

    CERN Document Server

    Droste-Franke, Bert; Kaiser, M; Schreurs, Miranda; Weber, Christoph; Ziesemer, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Managing a successful transition of the current energy supply system to less carbon emitting options, ensuring a safe and secure supply during the whole process and in the long term, is one of the largest challenges of our time. Various approaches and first implementations show that it is not only technological issue, but also a matter of societal acceptance and acceptability, considering basic ethic values of the society. The main foci of the book are, thus, to develop an understanding about the specific challenges of the scientific policy advice in the area, to explore typical current approaches for the analysis of future energy systems and to develop criteria for the quality assessment and guidelines for the improvement of such studies. The book provides assistance to the interpretation of existing studies and guidelines for setting up and carrying out new analyses as well as for communicating and applying the results. Thereby, it aims to support the involved actors such as the respective scientific expert...

  4. Contraceptive practices in Nigeria: Literature review and recommendation for future policy decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Monjok

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Emmanuel Monjok1, Andrea Smesny1, John E Ekabua2, E James Essien11Institute of Community Health, University of Houston, Texas, USA; 2Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Calabar, NigeriaAbstract: The current prevalence rate for contraceptive use in Nigeria is approximately 11%–13%. This rate is very low in spite of the high rate of sexual activity and widespread awareness of the various contraceptive methods among Nigerian adolescence and youths. As a result there are many unintended pregnancies and illegal abortions contributing to a high maternal mortality ratio, which seems to indicate a large unmet need for contraceptive use. There is ample research evidence identifying the various factors that contribute to the low prevalence of modern contraceptive use in Nigeria, with the most common factor being the myth about the side effects of modern contraceptives. However, what is lacking is a political will in Nigeria to provide family planning programs on a much larger scale, using community-oriented approaches and communication programs, to help change the myth about the side effects of modern contraceptives. This review highlights current methods and concepts in contraception, reasons for low contraceptive use and practice in Nigeria, and the need for Nigeria to generate a political priority and a will to make a change in maternal health indicators, with the ultimate goal of providing direction to guide changes in the Nigerian Population Policy as it affects contraceptive use and family planning.Keywords: contraceptive practice, literature review, research, Nigeria

  5. Introduction to a special section: Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Karel Haegeman; Jennifer C Harper; Ron Johnston

    2010-01-01

    Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals, on being able to discern the possible shape of the future: what is likely to influence it, and what can be done to prepare for it. This special section is based on selected papers from the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis, held 16–17 October 2008 at Seville, Spain, which addressed the challenge of increasing the impact of future-oriented technology analysis on policy and dec...

  6. The use of decision analytic techniques in energy policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Seppaelaeinen, T.O.

    1986-08-01

    The report reviews decision analytic techniques and their applications to energy policy decision making. Decision analysis consists in techniques for structuring the essential elements of a decision problem and mathematical methods for ranking the alternatives from a set of simple judgments. Because modeling subjective judgments is characteristic of decision analysis, the models can incorporate qualitative factors and values, which escape traditional energy modeling. Decision analysis has been applied to choices among energy supply alternatives, siting energy facilities, selecting nuclear waste repositories, selecting research and development projects, risk analysis and prioritizing alternative energy futures. Many applications are done in universities and research institutions, but during the 70's the use of decision analysis has spread both to the public and the private sector. The settings where decision analysis has been applied range from aiding a single decision maker to clarifying opposing points of view. Decision analytic methods have also been linked with energy models. The most valuable result of decision analysis is the clarification of the problem at hand. Political decisions cannot be made solely on the basis of models, but models can be used to gain insight of the decision situation. Models inevitably simplify reality, so they must be regarded only as aids to judgment. So far there has been only one decision analysis of energy policy issues in Finland with actual political decision makers as participants. The experiences of this project and numerous foreign applications do however suggest that the decision analytic approach is useful in energy policy questions. The report presents a number of Finnish energy policy decisions where decision analysis might prove useful. However, the applicability of the methods depends crucially on the actual circumstances at hand

  7. (Nuclear) energy policy in future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    With this report the German Federal Diet submits the final results of the opinion-forming and decision-making process concerning the recommendations made by the investigation committee 'Future Nuclear Energy Policy' in June 1980. By means of this report it is intended to point out to an interested public the difficult and time-consuming process of parliamentary decision-making. This report is also to be seen as the final opinion delivered on the recommendations made by the investigation committee. The recommendations were to continue to pursue the peaceful use of nuclear energy, the necessity and technical justifiability of which had basically been approved by all parliamentary groups. In view of the import of the subject and in recognition of the work done by the investigation committee, the German Parliament has thoroughly discussed the report and has reviewed the analyses and recommendations in conjunction with other political fields to be considered. One part of the recommendations was taken up almost unanimously. As far as the safety of nuclear installations is concerned, the investigation committee could not submit any new findings which would give reasons for modifying the hitherto positive assessment of the safety of nuclear installations. The recommendations of the investigation committee mainly referred to the decision-making process in the field of energy policy which will effect the next decade. What fundamental decisions are to be made until when was pointed out as well as the findings and experience to be made until then. (orig./HP) [de

  8. Behavioral decisions and policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalton, P.S.; Ghosal, S.

    2011-01-01

    We study the public policy implications of a model in which agents do not fully internalize all the conscequences of their actions. Such a model unifies seemingly disconected models with behavioral agents. We evaluate the scope of paternalistic and libertarian-parternalistic policies in light of our

  9. Behavioral Decisions and Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalton, P.S.; Ghosal, S.

    2010-01-01

    We study the public policy implications of a model in which agents do not fully internalize all the conscequences of their actions. Such a model uni es seemingly disconected models with behavioral agents. We evaluate the scope of paternalistic and libertarian-parternalistic policies in the light of

  10. NRC policy on future reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-07-01

    On April 13, 1983, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission issued for public comment a ''Proposed Commission Policy Statement on Severe Accidents and Related Views on Nuclear Reactor Regulation'' (48 FR 16014). This report presents and discusses the Commission's final version of that policy statement now entitled, ''Policy Statement on Severe Reactor Accidents Regarding Future Designs and Existing Plants.'' It provides an overview of comments received from the public and the Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards and the staff response to these. In addition to the Policy Statement, the report discusses how the policies of this statement relate to other NRC programs including the Severe Accident Research Program; the implementation of safety measures resulting from lessons learned in the accident at Three Mile Island; safety goal development; the resolution of Unresolved Safety Issues and other Generic Safety Issues; and possible revisions of rules or regulatory requirements resulting from the Severe Accident Source Term Program. Also discussed are the main features of a generic decision strategy for resolving Regulatory Questions and Technical Issues relating to severe accidents; the development and regulatory use of new safety information; the treatment of uncertainty in severe accident decision making; and the development and implementation of a Systems Reliability Program for both existing and future plants to ensure that the realized level of safety is commensurate with the safety analyses used in regulatory decisions

  11. Public education for energy policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frigren, S.

    1977-01-01

    A brief review is given of the changes that took place in 1972-73 in public opinion and political views in Sweden, leading to new attitudes and increasing interest in matters is of energy policy. Although nuclear power was from the beginning the main issue, it became more and more widely recognized that a number of complex and technically difficult problems were involved. In late 1973 the Government decided to prepare a comprehensive energy policy programme for the period 1975-85 and to put this programme before Parliament in the spring of 1975. In order to involve the public in the decision making process, a public education programme was introduced in January 1974. The essentials of this programme are described. The main effort was provided by the adult education associations. These were given financial incentives to start energy study circles and prepared their own study material. Journalist seminars were also arranged. The paper then describes how the public, by its activities in the energy study circles, was given a possibility to influence the formulation of the new Swedish energy policy. It outlines the links between the educational efforts, the discussions in the study circles, and the standpoints ultimately taken by the different political parties on the key energy issues, especially as regards the future role of nuclear power. Finally, it also tries to evaluate to what extent this effort in education and involvement can be expected to react on the implementation of the energy policy programme and on future energy policy decisions

  12. The decisive future of inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardwick, Robert J.; Vennin, Vincent; Wands, David

    2018-05-01

    How much more will we learn about single-field inflationary models in the future? We address this question in the context of Bayesian design and information theory. We develop a novel method to compute the expected utility of deciding between models and apply it to a set of futuristic measurements. This necessarily requires one to evaluate the Bayesian evidence many thousands of times over, which is numerically challenging. We show how this can be done using a number of simplifying assumptions and discuss their validity. We also modify the form of the expected utility, as previously introduced in the literature in different contexts, in order to partition each possible future into either the rejection of models at the level of the maximum likelihood or the decision between models using Bayesian model comparison. We then quantify the ability of future experiments to constrain the reheating temperature and the scalar running. Our approach allows us to discuss possible strategies for maximising information from future cosmological surveys. In particular, our conclusions suggest that, in the context of inflationary model selection, a decrease in the measurement uncertainty of the scalar spectral index would be more decisive than a decrease in the uncertainty in the tensor-to-scalar ratio. We have incorporated our approach into a publicly available python class, foxi,1 that can be readily applied to any survey optimisation problem.

  13. Future Trends in Business Travel Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Keith J.

    2002-01-01

    This research surveys twenty large companies and their travellers to identify and evaluate the effects of pressures on the business travel market in the future. The influence of the following areas on the decision making process are addressed: (1) Corporate travel policies and increasing professionalism in corporate purchasing; (2) The development of global strategic airline alliances; (3) The emergence of low cost airlines on short haul markets; and (4) The development of internet based booking tools and travel agency IT. The survey shows differences in views between travel managers, and travellers with regard to corporate travel policies. While travel managers see policy rules, travellers interpret these as guidelines, indicating travel managers will need to take further actions to exercise true control of travel budgets. The data shows that companies are more likely to prescribe a class of airline ticket, than the choice of airline itself. Corporate hierarchical bias in travel policies is still common both for short and particularly long haul flying. Other findings show that while travel managers believe that their companies are likely to sign global deals with strategic airline groups within a five year period in a bid to consolidating spending, they also believe that nearly a third of short haul flying will be taken with low cost carriers, indicating further penetration in this business travel market by these carriers. The paper also provides other predictions about the business travel market, based on the survey findings.

  14. Decision support in vaccination policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piso, B; Wild, C

    2009-10-09

    Looking across boarders reveals that the national immunization programs of various countries differ in their vaccination schedules and decisions regarding the implementation and funding of new vaccines. The aim of this review is to identify decision aids and crucial criteria for a rational decision-making process on vaccine introduction and to develop a theoretical framework for decision-making based on available literature. Systematic literature search supplemented by hand-search. We identified five published decision aids for vaccine introduction and program planning in industrialized countries. Their comparison revealed an overall similarity with some differences in the approach as well as criteria. Burden of disease and vaccine characteristics play a key role in all decision aids, but authors vary in their views on the significance of cost-effectiveness analyses. Other relevant factors that should be considered before vaccine introduction are discussed to highly differing extents. These factors include the immunization program itself as well as its conformity with other programs, its feasibility, acceptability, and equity, as well as ethical, legal and political considerations. Assuming that the most comprehensive framework possible will not provide a feasible tool for decision-makers, we suggest a stepwise procedure. Though even the best rational approach and most comprehensive evaluation is limited by remaining uncertainties, frameworks provide at least a structured approach to evaluate the various aspects of vaccine implementation decision-making. This process is essential in making consistently sound decisions and will facilitate the public's confidence in the decision and its realization.

  15. Decision Strategy Research: Policy Support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardeman, F.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategy research are (1) to support and advise the Belgian authorities on specific problems concerning existing and potential hazards from exposure to ionising radiation, both in normal and emergency situations; (2) to perform research on relevant topics that might have an important impact on decision making related to nuclear applications, including social and economic sciences. Main achievements in this area in 1999 are described

  16. The Future of Federal Education Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthrie, James W.

    1983-01-01

    This article explores the evolution of federal government policy on education during the past 20 years, points out trends likely to influence future policy, and projects possible future responses to these trends. The roles of educational interest groups instrumental in passing the legislation are described. (PP)

  17. Policies for a renewable future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This chapter identifies changes needed in policies regarding the utilization of renewable energy sources. The topics of the chapter include financial and legal incentives, information needs, long range energy and economic policy, environmental issues as an impetus to commercialization of renewable energy sources, taxing use of fossil fuels, encouraging renewable energy use by electric utilities through least-cost planning, educating the public and providing technical assistance, research and development, and environmental regulation and monitoring

  18. EU policy objectives and energy investment decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Alario, Juan

    2007-01-01

    EU energy policies have changed focus in the last few years with a view to substantially reducing energy import dependency and greenhouse gas emissions. The EU Commission has played a leading role in defining the new orientations. The implementation of the EU policy objectives approved by the Council of March 2007 will require a substantial expansion of energy investments. However, the degree of uncertainty affecting investment decisions remains high, notably in relation to the pricing of CO2...

  19. Future directions for environmental policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Riordan, T

    1984-01-01

    Environmentalism is an elusive concept with many meanings. Its changing character is examined together with an analysis of how it is likely to influence public policy across a broad front. The paper also reviews the major environmental issues which QECD countries are likely to face nationally, regionally and globally over the next twenty years and discusses the type of politics that may emerge within the new environmentalism. The overriding global issue will be the tragic interconnection between poverty and environmental damage in the underdeveloped countries. In the developed but de-industrialising economies of the 'north' greatest attention will be placed on devising means for creating jobs and providing satisfying occupations for people forced out of a job or never in employment. Environmental rehabilitation can create jobs, but it will involve the denial of resources otherwise available to create jobs elsewhere. It will therefore be necessary to consider the 'next job effectiveness' of environmental policies. Another policy area that requires new thinking is the management of environmental hazards, notably how to dispose of toxic wastes in a manner acceptable to a majority of people. Finally serious efforts will have to be made, not only to infuse environmental principles within all policy arenas, but also to ensure that departmental responsibilities and budgets are properly linked. The principle that those who exploit environmental resources should subsidise those who use environmental resources frugally and benignly by means of transfer taxes and payments should also become established. (orig.).

  20. Conflict within the Turkish foreign policy decision making mechanism:

    OpenAIRE

    Oğuz, Mustafa; Oguz, Mustafa

    2005-01-01

    This thesis presents an analysis of Turkish foreign policy decision making in a theoretical model and argues that Turkish foreign policy is a product of negotiation and compromises among various foreign policy making actors. Theoretical foundation is built on decision units framework advanced by Margaret G. Herman. It applies this framework to two cases and four decision occasions to investigate who made foreign policy decisions and how this influenced foreign policy of Turkey. The first case...

  1. Decision Strategy Research and Policy Support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardeman, F.

    2002-01-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies and policy support is: (1) to investigate the decision making process, with all its relevant dimensions, in the context of radiation protection or other nuclear issues (with particular emphasis on emergency preparedness); (2) to disseminate knowledge on decision making and nuclear emergencies, including the organisation of training courses, the contribution to manuals or guidelines, the participation in working groups or discussion forums; (3) to assist the authorities and the industry on any topic related to radiation protection and to make expertise and infrastructure available; (4) to participate in and contribute to initiatives related to social sciences and their implementation into SCK-CEN; (5) to co-ordinate efforts of SCK-CEN related to medical applications of ionising radiation. Principal achievements in 2001 are described

  2. Decision Strategy Research and Policy Support

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardeman, F

    2002-04-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies and policy support is: (1) to investigate the decision making process, with all its relevant dimensions, in the context of radiation protection or other nuclear issues (with particular emphasis on emergency preparedness); (2) to disseminate knowledge on decision making and nuclear emergencies, including the organisation of training courses, the contribution to manuals or guidelines, the participation in working groups or discussion forums; (3) to assist the authorities and the industry on any topic related to radiation protection and to make expertise and infrastructure available; (4) to participate in and contribute to initiatives related to social sciences and their implementation into SCK-CEN; (5) to co-ordinate efforts of SCK-CEN related to medical applications of ionising radiation. Principal achievements in 2001 are described.

  3. When imagining future wealth influences risky decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Eric Greenberg

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The body of literature on the relationship between risk aversion and wealth is extensive. However, little attention has been given to examining how future realizations of wealth might affect (current risk decisions. Using paired lottery choice experiments and exposing subjects experimentally to imagined future wealth frames, I find that individuals are more risk-seeking if they are asked to imagine that they will be wealthy in the future. Yet I find that individuals are not significantly more risk-averse if they are asked to imagine that they will be poor in the future. I discuss theoretical and policy implications of these findings, including why savings rates are so low in the United States.

  4. Immunizing Children: A Qualitative Analysis of Future Parental Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espeleta, Hannah C; Beasley, Lana O; Ridings, Leigh E; Smith, Tyler J; Shields, Jennifer D

    2017-10-01

    Vaccinations are considered one of public health's greatest accomplishments. Despite evidence for vaccine effectiveness, uptake levels are still well below the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's guidelines. The immunization decision-making process for parents is complex and depends on factors associated with knowledge and experiences. This qualitative study sought to expand on a previous decision-making model for immunizations by examining how individuals receive vaccination information, determining the role of experience in influencing decisions, and understanding how young adults might locate vaccination information in the future. Three focus groups were conducted with 29 undergraduate students without children. Results suggest that young adults exhibit an awareness of information regarding vaccine use and effectiveness, value doctor opinions and recommendations, and desire more robust research on vaccinations. Implications of these results include the importance of (1) disseminating vaccination education to young adults, (2) enhancing consistency/trust between medical professionals and youth, and (3) expanding public policy to increase vaccine uptake.

  5. What are the decision criteria of an energy policy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daures, Pierre

    2014-04-01

    The author analyses and comments the determining factors of an energy policy. The first issue is to match supply and demand. He outlines why demand is difficult to control. As far as supply is concerned, several scales must be taken into account, notably a time scale (differences between base energies and intermittent energies) and a geographical scale (mass production and local production). Other determining factors are security of energy supply, preservation of the local environment, impact on climate, costs and prices, competitiveness of national companies, and the management of risks. The author then discusses how to take a decision, how to arbitrate between these factors as decisions are important and have long-lasting effects, as calculations on the long term raise the issue of future actualisation, as externalities must be integrated and valorised, and as an energy policy must set clear objectives and be aimed at the common good

  6. Decision support tools for policy and planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacyk, P.; Schultz, D.; Spangenberg, L.

    1995-01-01

    A decision support system (DSS) is being developed at the Radioactive Liquid Waste Treatment Facility, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The DSS will be used to evaluate alternatives for improving LANL's existing central radioactive waste water treatment plant and to evaluate new site-wide liquid waste treatment schemes that are required in order to handle the diverse waste streams produced at LANL. The decision support system consists of interacting modules that perform the following tasks: rigorous process simulation, configuration management, performance analysis, cost analysis, risk analysis, environmental impact assessment, transportation modeling, and local, state, and federal regulation compliance checking. Uncertainty handling techniques are used with these modules and also with a decision synthesis module which combines results from the modules listed above. We believe the DSS being developed can be applied to almost any other industrial water treatment facility with little modification because in most situations the waste streams are less complex, fewer regulations apply, and the political environment is simpler. The techniques being developed are also generally applicable to policy and planning decision support systems in the chemical process industry

  7. Interactions Among Insider Ownership, Dividend Policy, Debt Policy, Investment Decision, and Business Risk

    OpenAIRE

    F., Indri Erkaningrum

    2013-01-01

    The study of interaction among insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, and business risk is still conducted. This research aims at investigating theinfluencing factors of insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, business risk, and the interaction among insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, and business risk. The samples of the research are 137 manufacturing companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchan...

  8. INTERACTIONS AMONG INSIDER OWNERSHIP, DIVIDEND POLICY, DEBT POLICY, INVESTMENT DECISION, AND BUSINESS RISK

    OpenAIRE

    F., Indri Erkaningrum

    2015-01-01

    The study of interaction among insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, and business risk is still conducted. This research aims at investigating theinfluencing factors of insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, business risk, and the interaction among insider ownership, dividend policy, debt policy, investment decision, and business risk. The samples of the research are 137 manufacturing companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchan...

  9. Recommendations on future development of decision support systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MCarthur, Stephen; Chen, Minjiang; Marinelli, Mattia

    Deliverable 8.3 reports on the consolidation of experiences from visualisation, decision support prototypes experiments and recommendations on future developments of decision support systems......Deliverable 8.3 reports on the consolidation of experiences from visualisation, decision support prototypes experiments and recommendations on future developments of decision support systems...

  10. Nuclear power. What policies for what future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thiriet, Lucien.

    1976-01-01

    A long- and very long-dated estimation of the world uranium resources are given comparatively to that of fissile energies, and the short- and mean-dated distributions of these resources and uranium economy are discussed in the light of foresights concerning the energy consumption provided for France and the most important industrial countries in 1985. The competitive character and the economic future of nuclear power are discussed. The incidence that the evolution in the nuclear policies of the principal industrial countries had, in the past, on the formation and growth of the market of nuclear power production is shown. The future possibilities of nuclear reactors and nuclear hydrogen are evaluated with the role of nuclear power in an economic policy in national independence [fr

  11. Shared decision making in endocrinology: present and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Gutierrez, Rene; Gionfriddo, Michael R; Ospina, Naykky Singh; Maraka, Spyridoula; Tamhane, Shrikant; Montori, Victor M; Brito, Juan P

    2016-08-01

    In medicine and endocrinology, there are few clinical circumstances in which clinicians can accurately predict what is best for their patients. As a result, patients and clinicians frequently have to make decisions about which there is uncertainty. Uncertainty results from limitations in the research evidence, unclear patient preferences, or an inability to predict how treatments will fit into patients' daily lives. The work that patients and clinicians do together to address the patient's situation and engage in a deliberative dialogue about reasonable treatment options is often called shared decision making. Decision aids are evidence-based tools that facilitate this process. Shared decision making is a patient-centred approach in which clinicians share information about the benefits, harms, and burden of different reasonable diagnostic and treatment options, and patients explain what matters to them in view of their particular values, preferences, and personal context. Beyond the ethical argument in support of this approach, decision aids have been shown to improve patients' knowledge about the available options, accuracy of risk estimates, and decisional comfort. Decision aids also promote patient participation in the decision-making process. Despite accumulating evidence from clinical trials, policy support, and expert recommendations in endocrinology practice guidelines, shared decision making is still not routinely implemented in endocrine practice. Additional work is needed to enrich the number of available tools and to implement them in practice workflows. Also, although the evidence from randomised controlled trials favours the use of this shared decision making in other settings, populations, and illnesses, the effect of this approach has been studied in a few endocrine disorders. Future pragmatic trials are needed to explore the effect and feasibility of shared decision making implementation into routine endocrinology and primary care practice. With the

  12. Environmental risks and future generations: Criteria for public policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howarth, R.B.

    1992-10-01

    This paper examines alternative normative approaches to the policy challenges posed by long-term environmental problems such as toxic and radioactive waste disposal, stratospheric ozone depletion, and climate change. The paper argues that cost-benefit analysis is limited in its ability to handle the issues of intergenerational equity and uncertainty that are intrinsic to such problems. Also considered is the precautionary principle, which holds that policies should seek to reduce threats to the welfare of future generations if the costs of doing so would not significantly reduce the subjective well-being of existing persons. Although the precautionary principle depends on an explicit value judgement, it yields a policy criterion that is operationally decisive under a wide array of circumstances.

  13. Women as decision and policy makers. Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-09-01

    The focus of this news brief is on the Community-based Sustainable Family Planning/Maternal and Child Health (FP/MCH) Project promoted in Bangladesh, Laos, Nepal, and the Philippines. The project emphasizes women's involvement as policy makers and evaluators. The aim is to involve women at all project levels as part of an effort to correct gender imbalances. Programs are being directed toward sustainability. Women are placed in positions at each level of the tiered system of steering committees, which range from local village committees to central committees. Men may still retain the top positions, but women are given decision making power at the highest levels of policy and program development and implementation. The Asia region is challenged by quality of care issues related to reproductive health services. Program expansion is proceeding into rural areas with outreach services and fee charging. Projects are community-based, which means mobilization of community people. The community approach is suitable to an Asian culture that does not adhere to strict rules of privacy. Women's groups are eager to discuss sensitive issues such as contraception and to offer personal experiences and solutions to problems. Mass meetings and individual counseling sessions are available. IEC materials are available to the Asian FP/MCH program from JOICFP. Some of these materials promote the concept of the Asian community spirit as a building block of development. The Asian approach is an alternative to Western models and may be valid for other regions.

  14. Public education for energy policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frigren, S.

    1977-01-01

    A brief review is given of the changes that took place in 1972-1973 in public opinion and political views in Sweden, leading to new attitudes and increasing interest in matters of energy policy. Although nuclear power was from the beginning the main issue, it became more and more widely recognized that a number of complex and technically difficult problems were involved. In late 1973, the Government decided to prepare a comprehensive energy policy programmme for the period 1975-1985 and to put this programme before Parliament in the spring of 1975. In order to involve the public in the decision-making process, a public education programme was introduced in January 1974. The essentials of this programme are described. The main effort was provided by the adult education associations, which were given financial incentives to start energy study circles and prepared their own study material. Journalist seminars were also arranged. The paper outlines the links between the educational efforts, the discussions in the study circles, and the standpoints ultimately taken by the different political parties on the energy issues. (author)

  15. Deploying Renewables - Best and Future Policy Practice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-23

    The global energy system faces urgent challenges. Concerns about energy security are growing, as highlighted by the recent political turmoil in Northern Africa and the nuclear incident in Fukushima. At the same time, the need to respond to climate change is more critical than ever. Against this background, many governments have increased efforts to promote deployment of renewable energy -- low-carbon sources that can strengthen energy security. This has stimulated unprecedented rise in deployment, and renewables are now the fastest growing sector of the energy mix. This 'coming of age' of renewable energy also brings challenges. Growth is focused on a few of the available technologies, and rapid deployment is confined to a relatively small number of countries. In more advanced markets, managing support costs and system integration of large shares of renewable energy in a time of economic weakness and budget austerity has sparked vigorous political debate. The IEA's new report, Deploying Renewables 2011: Best and Future Policy Practice: - Provides a comprehensive review and analysis of renewable energy policy and market trends; - Analyses in detail the dynamics of deployment and provides best-practice policy principles for different stages of market maturity; - Assesses the impact and cost-effectiveness of support policies using new methodological tools and indicators; - Investigates the strategic reasons underpinning the pursuit of RE deployment by different countries and the prospects for globalisation of RE. This new book builds on and extends a 2008 IEA publication, drawing on recent policy and deployment experience world-wide. It provides guidance for policy makers and other stakeholders to avoid past mistakes, overcome new challenges and reap the benefits of deploying renewables -- today and tomorrow.

  16. US climate policy: evolution and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agrawala, S.; Andresen, S.

    2001-03-01

    Climate change is a problem which US science has significantly helped to bring to the world's attention. It now requires initiatives in US domestic policy for even the first steps towards any realistic global resolution of this problem. This paper addresses three questions: (1) How has US climate policy evolved since climate change became an international political concern in the late 1980s?; (2) what is the relative significance of various factors, both domestic and international, in shaping this evolution?; and (3) what are some likely future scenarios for the climate regime and the role of the US under the new Bush (Jr.) administration? This analysis suggests that the US has generally played a cautious, even blocking role on the international arena, although the period between 1992 and 1997 witnessed a rather uneven march towards progressivism, culminating in the US agreeing to a 7 per cent cut in its greenhouse emissions by 2008-2012 under the Kyoto Protocol. US policy during the Bush (Sr.) and Clinton administrations was primarily shaped by powerful ideologues, while a second critical determinant was the constitutional separation of powers between the executive and legislature. Scientific assessments and international negotiations meanwhile have given climate change unusual stamina on the domestic agenda, while the preferred set of policy responses has been constrained by a national culture that gives primacy to the market over the state. Looking into the future, the recent one-two punch delivered by President George W. Bush in reversing his pledge to regulate carbon dioxide followed by a rejection of US commitments under the Kyoto Protocol renders any expectation of measures to reduce domestic emissions unrealistic, and is likely to cripple the treaty in its present form. The possibility of an alternative to the Kyoto Protocol also appears very remote at this time. However, while official action is unlikely, it is possible that the growth of US

  17. The Future of Computerized Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    professionals will be becoming more adept at scripting, modeling, graphical and statistical displays. Decision makers may, similarly, be less likely to shy...elsewhere in this proceedings (Sanchez 2014) simulation can be the core for model-driven big data and inferential decision-making. We need to stake... descriptive , not prescriptive.” In our field, we deal with prospective decision making. We have an advantage in this area: since our output data are

  18. Energy policy decision making and public opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerstein, L.

    1989-09-01

    By the example of nuclear the author demonstrates the interactions of short-term fluctuations on the world energy market, energy forecasts, specific events and discussions on energy policy both within political parties and in the general public, and draws conclusions which are valid beyond the Federal Republic of Germany: An analysis of the general public's attitude towards nuclear energy shows two initial phases, i.e. euphoria and scepticism/ideology/agitation. The early eighties, then, led to a third phase - realism. Up to 1983 a consensus prevailed between the leading political parties in Germany regarding the basic energy-policy objective of minimizing the supply risk by providing for a well-balanced use of all available energy sources. The resulting attitude had a positive bearing on the public opinion: more than two thirds of the population were in favour of nuclear. In the mid-eighties, the development of nuclear was by and large completed in the Federal Republic of Germany as well as in the United States and other western industrialized countries and the capacity of nuclear power plants is considered sufficient for the years to come. In addition, abundant long-term reserves of domestic lignite and hardcoal are available: this also should have furnished a good reason to envisage calmly the issues of power supply. Instead, we are again facing emotional discussions on the acceptance of nuclear. Public opinion in the Federal Republic of Germany has changed since the Social Democrats followed the example of the Ecologists and advocated a rapid withdrawal from nuclear. In a recent poll four-fifths of the persons asked did not rule out the possibility of a major accident in a German power station. The wish to ignore today's energy supply problems by escaping into a supposedly safe but yet distant and vague future is part of every public debate. Technical and scientific issues are examined no longer in this global context. Predictions of experts and counter

  19. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

    OpenAIRE

    R?muzat, C?cile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, ?sa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aball?a, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm).Methods: A model was built to assess policy sc...

  20. Heuristic and optimal policy computations in the human brain during sequential decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korn, Christoph W; Bach, Dominik R

    2018-01-23

    Optimal decisions across extended time horizons require value calculations over multiple probabilistic future states. Humans may circumvent such complex computations by resorting to easy-to-compute heuristics that approximate optimal solutions. To probe the potential interplay between heuristic and optimal computations, we develop a novel sequential decision-making task, framed as virtual foraging in which participants have to avoid virtual starvation. Rewards depend only on final outcomes over five-trial blocks, necessitating planning over five sequential decisions and probabilistic outcomes. Here, we report model comparisons demonstrating that participants primarily rely on the best available heuristic but also use the normatively optimal policy. FMRI signals in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) relate to heuristic and optimal policies and associated choice uncertainties. Crucially, reaction times and dorsal MPFC activity scale with discrepancies between heuristic and optimal policies. Thus, sequential decision-making in humans may emerge from integration between heuristic and optimal policies, implemented by controllers in MPFC.

  1. The effect of OPEC policy decisions on oil and stock prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guidi, Marco G.D.; Russell, Alexander; Tarbert, Heather

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents evidence of the effects of OPEC policy decisions on the US and UK stock markets, as well as on oil prices, during periods of conflict and non-conflict from 1986 to 2004. The outcomes of this study are potentially valuable in assessing future strategies for OPEC policy decisions on oil production targets for its Members. This paper also adds to the strong body of evidence supporting the hypothesis that market returns are influenced by factors that affect business conditions, such as oil price shocks. The key findings are that there are asymmetric reactions to OPEC policy decisions during conflict periods for the US and UK stock markets. During conflict periods, oil markets require time to incorporate OPEC decisions. Conversely, in non-conflict periods the evidence suggests that the oil markets incorporate OPEC decisions efficiently. (Author)

  2. Dissolving decision making? : Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.

    2014-01-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.

  3. Students' Reactions to Course Policy Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Sarah F.; Jenkins, Jade S.; Barber, Larissa K.

    2016-01-01

    Classroom management involves managing students' requests for course policy changes. Instructors can adhere to the course policies or convey flexibility through making an exception for the student. The current study empirically examines students' emotional reactions (hostility, guilt, and surprise) and fairness perceptions to course policy…

  4. Application of HTA research on policy decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngkong, Sitaporn

    2014-05-01

    This article provides an overview of the potential uses of health technology assessment (HTA) in health technology or health intervention-related policy decision-making. It summarises the role of HTA in policy planning, health system investment, price negotiation, development of clinical practice guidelines, and communication with health professionals. While the multifaceted nature of HTA means that some aspects of the data can result in conflicting conclusions, the comprehensive approach of HTA is still recommended. To help minimise the potential conflicts within HTA data, a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach is recommended as a way to assess a number of decision criteria simultaneously. A combination of HTA with MCDA allows policy decision-making to be undertaken in an empirically rigorous and rational way. This combination can be used to support policy decision-makers in Thailand and help them prioritise topics for assessment and make informed health benefit package coverage decisions. This approach enhances the legitimacy of policy decisions by increasing the transparency, systematic nature, and inclusiveness of the process.

  5. Does future-oriented thinking predict adolescent decision making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eskritt, Michelle; Doucette, Jesslyn; Robitaille, Lori

    2014-01-01

    A number of theorists, as well as plain common sense, suggest that future-oriented thinking (FOT) should be involved in decision making; therefore, the development of FOT should be related to better quality decision making. FOT and quality of the decision making were measured in adolescents as well as adults in 2 different experiments. Though the results of the first experiment revealed an increase in quality of decision making across adolescence into adulthood, there was no relationship between FOT and decision making. In the second experiment, FOT predicted performance on a more deliberative decision-making task independent of age, but not performance on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Performance on the IGT was instead related to emotion regulation. The study's findings suggest that FOT can be related to reflective decision making but not necessarily decision making that is more intuitive.

  6. Situating School District Resource Decision Making in Policy Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spain, Angeline K.

    2016-01-01

    Decentralization and deregulation policies assume that local educational leaders make better resource decisions than state policy makers do. Conceptual models drawn from organizational theory, however, offer competing predictions about how district central office administrators are likely to leverage their professional expertise in devolved…

  7. The True Cost of Electric Power. An Inventory of Methodologies to Support Future Decision-making in Comparing the Cost and Competitiveness of Electricity Generation Technologies. Summary for policy-makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burtraw, Dallas; Krupnick, Alan

    2012-06-01

    In energy markets across the world, market prices for fossil fuels are often lower than the prices of energy generated from renewable sources, such as solar, wind, and bio-fuels. These market prices, however, don't take into account the 'true costs' of the energy being sold, because they ignore the external costs to society caused by pollution and its resulting burdens, including damages to public health and the environment. Accounting for these externalities can as much as double the cost of some fossil fuels and, in some cases, make them more expensive than renewables. Because renewable forms of energy have far lower external costs than energy generated from fossil fuels, if one can implement policies that incorporate those costs into the price of electricity generated from all technologies, the playing field levels out and renewables can compete on a more fair and economically justified basis. The challenge, of course, is determining those 'true costs'. Estimating the true costs of electricity generation is both complex and controversial. It is complex because it must take into account several factors, including the population density near a power plant, the fuel it uses, and its pollution abatement technology. It is controversial because it requires assumptions and decisions to be made that the public does not like or does not understand. These include monetizing some types of risks (for example, to health) and ignoring others, such as occupational risks from coal mining when they are already 'internalized' by the coal company in the wages it pays. Finally, these approaches are certain to be controversial because they can affect billions of dollars in investments in electricity generation. This report, The True Cost of Electric Power, examines the various methods that have been used to measure such 'true' costs and looks at how such estimates can be used in company decision-making and public policy to ensure that

  8. The future of European health policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivusalo, Meri Tuulikki

    2005-01-01

    The role of the European Union in health policies is changing. The European social model is under threat due to shifts in E.U. policies on liberalization of service provision, limited public budgets, a focus on the health sector as a productive sector in the context of broader European policies and the Lisbon strategy, and changes in the context of the new Constitutional Treaty. These changes are evident in a new reflection paper on European health strategy and its focus. E.U. health policies are at a critical juncture. The danger is that the current processes will lead European health policies and the health systems of member states more in the direction of U.S. health policies and the commercialization of health systems than toward improvement of the current situation.

  9. A decision-maker's view on future research decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catania, M.; McGeorge, L.; Smith, R.; Tucker, R.; Moser, F.; Telford, S.

    1992-01-01

    Partly as a result of its strategic geographic location as a northeastern port state, New Jersey has long been a heavily industrialized state. The potential, as well as actual, severity of the hazardous waste problem in New Jersey is demonstrated by an evaluation of the extent of industrial use of toxic substances, the significant number of actual hazardous waste generators and treatment facilities, and the extensive number of known or suspected hazardous waste sites in the state. In a 1987 report environmental contamination from hazardous and toxic waste was listed as the issue New Jersey citizens consider to be of the greatest importance. In response to the severity of the problems and citizen concerns, New Jersey's Hazardous Waste Program has assumed one of the most aggressive roles in the nation and has become the most successful state program for site remediation and control. As a result, the Hazardous Waste Program in New Jersey has been emulated by other states and by the US EPA in the development of its federal programs. Since its establishment, New Jersey has cleaned up nearly 1,000 non-national priorities list (non-NPL) sites and is in the process of cleaning up another 700 sites, including 109 in the NPL. New Jersey has cleaned up more hazardous waste sites than any other state or the federal government; in fact, three times as many sites as the next closest state and more than the next 14 states combined. This active program has amassed over $2.5 billion in public and private funds for its work. The program has also received several awards over the years for its outstanding efforts and its ability to incorporate innovative technologies and policies into its approaches

  10. Controlling equine influenza: policy networks and decision-making during the 2007 Australian equine influenza outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schemann, K; Gillespie, J A; Toribio, J-A L M L; Ward, M P; Dhand, N K

    2014-10-01

    Rapid, evidence-based decision-making is critical during a disease outbreak response; however, compliance by stakeholders is necessary to ensure that such decisions are effective - especially if the response depends on voluntary action. This mixed method study evaluated technical policy decision-making processes during the 2007 outbreak of equine influenza in Australia by identifying and analysing the stakeholder network involved and the factors driving policy decision-making. The study started with a review of the outbreak literature and published policy documents. This identified six policy issues regarding policy modifications or differing interpretations by different state agencies. Data on factors influencing the decision-making process for these six issues and on stakeholder interaction were collected using a pre-tested, semi-structured questionnaire. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 24 individuals representing 12 industry and government organizations. Quantitative data were analysed using social network analysis. Qualitative data were coded and patterns matched to test a pre-determined general theory using a method called theory-oriented process-tracing. Results revealed that technical policy decisions were framed by social, political, financial, strategic and operational considerations. Industry stakeholders had influence through formal pre-existing channels, yet specific gaps in stakeholder interaction were overcome by reactive alliances formed during the outbreak response but outside the established system. Overall, the crisis management system and response were seen as positive, and 75-100% of individuals interviewed were supportive of, had interest in and considered the outcome as good for the majority of policy decisions, yet only 46-75% of those interviewed considered that they had influence on these decisions. Training to increase awareness and knowledge of emergency animal diseases (EADs) and response systems will improve stakeholder

  11. Special interest in decision making in entrepreneurship policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bager, Torben; Klyver, Kim; Schou Nielsen, Pia

    2015-01-01

    The study investigates the role of the special interests of key decision makers in entrepreneurship policy formation at the national level. An ethnographic method is applied to analyse in depth the 2005 decision by the Danish Government to shift from volume oriented to growth oriented...... entrepreneurship policy. The theoretical value of this paper is its challenge to the widespread rationality view in the entrepreneurship field and a deepened understanding of how the pursuit of special interests is related to ambiguous evidence and system-level rationality....

  12. Artificial intelligence and foreign policy decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Berkoff, Russ H.

    1997-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited With the advent of a global information society, the US will seek to tap the potential of advanced computing capability to enhance its ability to conduct foreign policy decision making. This thesis explores the potential for improving individual and organizational decision making capabilities by means of artificial intelligence (AI). The use of AI will allow us to take advantage of the plethora of information available to obtain an edg...

  13. The Future of American Defense Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    16-44. Sharma, Avi. "Who Leads in a G-Zero World? Multi-Nationals, Sustainable Development, and Corporate Social Responsibility in a Changing...Policies in the U.S. & Western Europe." Public Finance & Management 7, no. 3(September 2007): 295-339. Tiltiņš, Alekss and Baiba Šavriņa. "Alternative

  14. Central banks’ voting records and future policy

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horváth, R.; Šmídková, K.; Zápal, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 4 (2012), s. 1-19 ISSN 1815-4654 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : monetary policy * voting record * transparency Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.895, year: 2012 http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb12q4a1.pdf

  15. Technology and Policy: Looking to the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sylvester, Kory

    2009-05-01

    As the proper scope and nature of arms control continues to be debated, it is certain that technical capabilities and advice will play a significant role. While national priorities and strategic objectives and broader perspectives of international security and foreign policy will ultimately dictate, technical expertise and assessment is critical to the identification, development and evaluation of alternatives. Strategic linkages between arms control, nonproliferation, and homeland security have perhaps never been so intertwined. Incomplete information and strongly held but disparate views about the potential of science and technology to amplify threats as readily as they mitigate them creates a highly dynamic environment for policymakers. To contribute meaningfully scientists and engineers will have to remain engaged with national security debates and think about the strategic and policy environment in which technical questions are posed to them, and how to identify and frame the important questions that aren't.

  16. Impacts of subsidy policies on vaccination decisions in contact networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hai-Feng; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Xu, Xiao-Ke; Small, Michael; Wang, Lin; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2013-07-01

    To motivate more people to participate in vaccination campaigns, various subsidy policies are often supplied by government and the health sectors. However, these external incentives may also alter the vaccination decisions of the broader public, and hence the choice of incentive needs to be carefully considered. Since human behavior and the networking-constrained interactions among individuals significantly impact the evolution of an epidemic, here we consider the voluntary vaccination on human contact networks. To this end, two categories of typical subsidy policies are considered: (1) under the free subsidy policy, the total amount of subsidy is distributed to a certain fraction of individual and who are vaccinated without personal cost, and (2) under the partial-offset subsidy policy, each vaccinated person is offset by a certain amount of subsidy. A vaccination decision model based on evolutionary game theory is established to study the effects of these different subsidy policies on disease control. Simulations suggest that, because the partial-offset subsidy policy encourages more people to take vaccination, its performance is significantly better than that of the free subsidy policy. However, an interesting phenomenon emerges in the partial-offset scenario: with limited amount of total subsidy, a moderate subsidy rate for each vaccinated individual can guarantee the group-optimal vaccination, leading to the maximal social benefits, while such an optimal phenomenon is not evident for the free subsidy scenario.

  17. Spatial Patterns and Design Policies for Future American Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutt, Ashok K.; Costa, Frank J.

    1977-01-01

    Describes plans for future urban development which take into account energy needs, mass transportation, technological innovations, high density settlement along the rapid transit spine, and rational decision making. (Author/DB)

  18. Reimbursement decisions in health policy--extending our understanding of the elements of decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirtz, Veronika; Cribb, Alan; Barber, Nick

    2005-09-08

    Previous theoretical and empirical work on health policy decisions about reimbursement focuses on specific rationales such as effectiveness, economic considerations and equal access for equal needs. As reimbursement decisions take place in a social and political context we propose that the analysis of decision-making should incorporate factors, which go beyond those commonly discussed. As an example we chose three health technologies (sildenafil, rivastigmine and statins) to investigate how decisions about reimbursement of medicines are made in the United Kingdom National Health Service and what factors influence these decisions. From face-to-face, in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of 20 regional and national policy makers and stakeholders we identified two dimensions of decision-making, which extend beyond the rationales conventionally cited. The first dimension relates to the role of 'subjectivity' or 'the personal' in the decisions, including personal experiences of the condition and excitement about the novelty or potential benefit of the technology-these factors affect what counts as evidence, or how evidence is interpreted, in practice. The second dimension relates to the social and political function of decision-making and broadens what counts as the relevant ends of decision-making to include such things as maintaining relationships, avoiding organisational burden, generating politically and legally defensible decisions and demonstrating the willingness to care. More importantly, we will argue that these factors should not be treated as contaminants of an otherwise rational decision-making. On the contrary we suggest that they seem relevant, reasonable and also of substantial importance in considering in decision-making. Complementing the analysis of decision-making about reimbursement by incorporating these factors could increase our understanding and potentially improve decision-making.

  19. Decision policy scenarios for just-in-sequence (JIS) deliveries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cedillo-Campos, Miguel Gaston; Ruelas, Dario Morones; Lizarraga-Lizarraga, Giovanni; Gonzalez-Feliu, Jesus; Garza-Reyes, Jose Arturo

    2017-01-01

    The Just-in-Sequence (JIS) approach is evidencing advantages in efficiently managing variety-driven costs, and reducing the risk of disruption in sourcing, manufacturing companies and third-party logistics. This has increased its implementation in the manufacturing industry, especially in highly customized manufacturing sectors such as the automotive industry. However, despite its growing interest by manufacturers, scholarly research focused on JIS still remains limited. In this context, little has been done to study the effect of JIS on the fluidity of supply chains and processes of logistics suppliers as well as providing them with a decision making tool to optimise the sequencing of their deliveries. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a genetic algorithm to evaluate different decision policy scenarios to reduce risks of supply disruptions at the final assembly line. Consequently, an algorithm considering a periodic review of the inventory that assumes a steady demand and short response times is developed and applied. Design/methodology/approach: Based on a literature review and real-life information, an abductive reasoning was performed and a case study application of the proposed algorithm conducted in the auto-industry. Findings: The results obtained from the case study indicate that the proposed genetic algorithm offers a reliable solution when facing variability in safety stocks that operate under assumptions such as: i) fixed costs; ii) high inventory turnover; iii) scarce previous information available concerning material requirements; and iv) replenishment services as core business value. Although the results are based on an auto-industry case study, they are equally applicable to other global supply chains. Originality/value: This paper is of interest to practitioners and academics alike as it complements and supports the very limited scholarly research on JIS by providing manufacturers and 3PL suppliers competing in mass customized

  20. Decision policy scenarios for just-in-sequence (JIS deliveries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Gaston Cedillo-Campos

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The Just-in-Sequence (JIS approach is evidencing advantages in efficiently managing variety-driven costs, and reducing the risk of disruption in sourcing, manufacturing companies and third-party logistics. This has increased its implementation in the manufacturing industry, especially in highly customized manufacturing sectors such as the automotive industry. However, despite its growing interest by manufacturers, scholarly research focused on JIS still remains limited. In this context, little has been done to study the effect of JIS on the fluidity of supply chains and processes of logistics suppliers as well as providing them with a decision making tool to optimise the sequencing of their deliveries. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a genetic algorithm to evaluate different decision policy scenarios to reduce risks of supply disruptions at the final assembly line. Consequently, an algorithm considering a periodic review of the inventory that assumes a steady demand and short response times is developed and applied. Design/methodology/approach: Based on a literature review and real-life information, an abductive reasoning was performed and a case study application of the proposed algorithm conducted in the auto-industry. Findings: The results obtained from the case study indicate that the proposed genetic algorithm offers a reliable solution when facing variability in safety stocks that operate under assumptions such as: i fixed costs; ii high inventory turnover; iii scarce previous information available concerning material requirements; and iv replenishment services as core business value. Although the results are based on an auto-industry case study, they are equally applicable to other global supply chains. Originality/value: This paper is of interest to practitioners and academics alike as it complements and supports the very limited scholarly research on JIS by providing manufacturers and 3PL suppliers competing in

  1. Decision policy scenarios for just-in-sequence (JIS) deliveries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cedillo-Campos, Miguel Gaston; Ruelas, Dario Morones; Lizarraga-Lizarraga, Giovanni; Gonzalez-Feliu, Jesus; Garza-Reyes, Jose Arturo

    2017-07-01

    The Just-in-Sequence (JIS) approach is evidencing advantages in efficiently managing variety-driven costs, and reducing the risk of disruption in sourcing, manufacturing companies and third-party logistics. This has increased its implementation in the manufacturing industry, especially in highly customized manufacturing sectors such as the automotive industry. However, despite its growing interest by manufacturers, scholarly research focused on JIS still remains limited. In this context, little has been done to study the effect of JIS on the fluidity of supply chains and processes of logistics suppliers as well as providing them with a decision making tool to optimise the sequencing of their deliveries. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a genetic algorithm to evaluate different decision policy scenarios to reduce risks of supply disruptions at the final assembly line. Consequently, an algorithm considering a periodic review of the inventory that assumes a steady demand and short response times is developed and applied. Design/methodology/approach: Based on a literature review and real-life information, an abductive reasoning was performed and a case study application of the proposed algorithm conducted in the auto-industry. Findings: The results obtained from the case study indicate that the proposed genetic algorithm offers a reliable solution when facing variability in safety stocks that operate under assumptions such as: i) fixed costs; ii) high inventory turnover; iii) scarce previous information available concerning material requirements; and iv) replenishment services as core business value. Although the results are based on an auto-industry case study, they are equally applicable to other global supply chains. Originality/value: This paper is of interest to practitioners and academics alike as it complements and supports the very limited scholarly research on JIS by providing manufacturers and 3PL suppliers competing in mass customized

  2. The future policy for radiological protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The international system of radiological protection is currently being revised with the aim of making it more coherent and concise. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has published its draft reflections on the system's evolution, and has opened discussions with the radiological protection community in order to seek a broad range of stakeholder input. This open dialogue will help bring about a common level of understanding of the issues at stake and contribute to the evolution of new ICRP recommendations. These proceedings present a significant block of stakeholder input, comprising the views of policy makers, regulators, radiological protection professionals, industry and representatives of both non-governmental and intergovernmental organisations. (author)

  3. Building models for marketing decisions : Past, present and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, PSH; Wittink, DR

    We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models

  4. Dynamic Decision Making in Agricultural Futures and Options Markets?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mattos, F.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates the dynamics of sequential decision-making in agricultural futures and options markets. Analysis of trading records of 12 traders identified considerable heterogeneity in individual dynamic trading behavior. Using risk measures derived from the deltas and vegas of traderâ¿¿s

  5. ASPECTS OF THE FUTURE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo GAJO

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper aimed to present the main CAP reforms imposed by the actual situation of agriculture development in the EU. The Common Agriculture Policy is focused on decoupling, modulation and cross-compliance. The single payment scheme will assure aids only for farms where production complies with environment, food safety, animal and plant health, animal welfare, and agricultural land maintenance in good condition. The new legislation provides the introduction of "green payments" related to the adoption of agricultural practices beneficial for the climate and the environment. The demographic growth imposes more production and a better distribution of food in the world. The EU has to be prepared to produce more because of the mass emigration to the rich countries from the region where food demand can not be covered.

  6. Engaging farmers to inform future diffuse pollution policy in England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrain, Emilie; Lovett, Andrew; Nobel, Lister; Grant, Fiona; Blundell, Paul; Cleasby, Will

    2013-04-01

    Stakeholder knowledge and engagement is increasingly seen as a necessary ingredient for catchment management. Whilst many agricultural management options remain voluntary, the implementation of diffuse pollution mitigation measures will only be effective with the cooperation of stakeholders. Anthony et al. (2009) and Zhang et al. (2012) state the need for more information on the realistic farmer uptake of methods to enhance analyses of the potential for pollution mitigation. A study engaging farmers to understand current agricultural practices and their attitudes towards mitigation measures has formed part of the Demonstration Test Catchment (DTC) programme in England. Interviews with over seventy farmers were conducted during 2012 in three contrasting areas of the UK: the grassland dominated Eden catchment in the North West of England; the arable dominated Wensum catchment in East Anglia and the mixed farming of the Hampshire Avon catchment in southern England. Results from the farmer survey provide a baseline regarding current agricultural practices and give insight regarding attitudes to the adoption of other mitigation measures in the future. Opinions were obtained on eighty different measures taken from a recent guide to possible measures prepared for the UK government (Newell-Price et al., 2011). Analyses have been conducted examining how current use and attitudes towards future adoption of measures varies according to different characteristics of farm businesses. These findings will be of benefit to researchers, policy makers and farm advisers, particularly aiding decision making with respect to strategies for future implementation of programmes of measures. References. Anthony, S.G. et al., 2009. Quantitative assessment of scenarios for managing trade-off between the economic performance of agriculture and the environment and between different environmental media. Available at: http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Default

  7. Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-11-15

    This WEC study is bottom-up regional view of our energy future focusing on policies to ensure energy sustainability. Experts from five regions and all energy domains worked together to produce four different scenarios to predict how differing levels of cooperation and government involvement would affect the energy future of the world.

  8. Safety design and evaluation policy for future FBRs in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aizawa, Kiyoto

    1991-01-01

    The safety policy for fast breeder reactors (FBRs) has gradually matured in accordance with the development of FBRs. The safety assessment of the Japanese prototype FBR, Monju during the licensing process accelerated the maturity and the integration of knowledge and databases. Results are expected to be reflected in the establishment of the safety design and evaluation policy for FBRs. Although the methodologies and safety policies developed for LWRs are applicable in principle to future FBRs, it is neither rational nor realistic to treat safety only with these policies. It is recommended that one should develop the methodologies and safety policies starting from understanding of the inherent safety characteristics of FBR's through safety research, plant operating experience and design work. In the last few years, some technical committees were organized in Japan and have discussed key safety issues which are specific to FBRs in order to provide preparatory reports and to establish safety standards and guidelines for future commercial FBRs. (author)

  9. The future policy for radiological protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    At the end of the 1990's, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) launched a process for establishing new recommendations, which are expected to serve as guidelines for national systems of radiological protection. Currently the ICRP's proposed recommendations are being subjected to extensive stakeholder comment and modifications. The NEA Committee on Radiation Protection and Public Health (CRPPH) has been actively involved in this process. Part of the Committee's work has been to undertake collaborative efforts with the ICRP through, for example, the organisation of broad stakeholder fora. The first of these, held in Taormina, Italy in 2002, focused on the development of a policy basis for the radiological protection of the environment. The second forum, held in Lanzarote, Spain in April 2003, addressed the latest concepts and approaches in the ICRP proposed recommendations for a system of radiological protection. During this meeting, the ICRP listened to the views of various stakeholder groups, including radiological protection regulators, environmental protection ministries, the nuclear power industry and NGOs. As a result, the ICRP modified its proposals to better reflect stakeholder needs and wishes. This report presents the outcomes of the discussions, examining what the ICRP proposed and how its proposals have been affected and modified as a result of stakeholder input. (author)

  10. Future-dependent Flow Policies with Prophetic Variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Ximeng; Nielson, Flemming; Nielson, Hanne Riis

    2016-01-01

    future-dependent flow policies- policies that can depend on not only the current values of variables, but also their final values. The final values are referred to using what we call prophetic variables, just as the initial values can be referenced using logical variables in Hoare logic. We develop...... and enforce a notion of future-dependent security for open systems, in the spirit of "non-deducibility on strategies". We also illustrate our approach in scenarios where future-dependency has advantages over present-dependency and avoids mixtures of upgradings and downgradings....

  11. Making robust policy decisions using global biodiversity indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Nicholson

    Full Text Available In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.

  12. Modelling and simulation-based acquisition decision support: present & future

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, S

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 24551 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 1 Modelling & Simulation...-Based Acquisition Decision Support: Present & Future Shahen Naidoo Abstract The Ground Based Air Defence System (GBADS) Programme, of the South African Army has been applying modelling and simulation (M&S) to provide acquisition decision and doctrine...

  13. Decision Making Policies and Worker Influence in Employee Owned Firms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammer, Tove Helland

    A study of a small employee-owned furniture company indicated that the three occupational groups agreed that management should have more influence in decisions affecting the future of the organization. On the other hand, issues which would directly affect employee welfare are seen as areas where control should be fairly evenly divided, with…

  14. Identification of Optimal Policies in Markov Decision Processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    46 2010, č. 3 (2010), s. 558-570 ISSN 0023-5954. [International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Economy and Industry. České Budějovice, 15.06.2009-18.06.2009] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/0107; GA ČR GA402/07/1113 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : finite state Markov decision processes * discounted and average costs * elimination of suboptimal policies Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.461, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/sladky-identification of optimal policies in markov decision processes.pdf

  15. Decision making in energy policies with conflicting interests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, O.

    1988-01-01

    After the accident in Chernobyl policy making and implementation of energy decisions have become more difficult than ever. On the one hand the public reacts with fear and opposition to a possible extention of nuclear power, on the other hand the economic prosperity of a country depends on an inexpensive and non-exhaustive energy source like nuclear energy. The paper describes a concept of energy planning developed by a study group of the Nuclear Research Centre in Julich (FRG). The concept is based on the idea that in a pluralistic society different social groups should participate in the policy formulation process and that the values of the public should be incorporated in the weighting process to make choices between given options. As reference theory the basic framework of decision analysis is used. (orig./DG)

  16. Designing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways using Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

    2017-04-01

    Dealing with climate risks in water management requires confronting a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, while navigating a many dimensional space of trade-offs amongst objectives. There is an emerging body of literature on supporting this type of decision problem, under the label of decision making under deep uncertainty. Two approaches within this literature are Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. In recent work, these approaches have been compared. One of the main conclusions of this comparison was that they are highly complementary. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making is a model based decision support approach, while Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is primarily a conceptual framework for the design of flexible strategies that can be adapted over time in response to how the future is actually unfolding. In this research we explore this complementarity in more detail. Specifically, we demonstrate how Many-Objective Robust Decision Making can be used to design adaptation pathways. We demonstrate this combined approach using a water management problem, in the Netherlands. The water level of Lake IJselmeer, the main fresh water resource of the Netherlands, is currently managed through discharge by gravity. Due to climate change, this won't be possible in the future, unless water levels are changed. Changing the water level has undesirable flood risk and spatial planning consequences. The challenge is to find promising adaptation pathways that balance objectives related to fresh water supply, flood risk, and spatial issues, while accounting for uncertain climatic and land use change. We conclude that the combination of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is particularly suited for dealing with deeply uncertain climate risks.

  17. Big Data: transforming drug development and health policy decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alemayehu, Demissie; Berger, Marc L

    The explosion of data sources, accompanied by the evolution of technology and analytical techniques, has created considerable challenges and opportunities for drug development and healthcare resource utilization. We present a systematic overview these phenomena, and suggest measures to be taken for effective integration of the new developments in the traditional medical research paradigm and health policy decision making. Special attention is paid to pertinent issues in emerging areas, including rare disease drug development, personalized medicine, Comparative Effectiveness Research, and privacy and confidentiality concerns.

  18. Injury and violence prevention policy: celebrating our successes, protecting our future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koné, Rebecca Greco; Zurick, Elizabeth; Patterson, Sara; Peeples, Amy

    2012-09-01

    Policy strategies for injury and violence prevention influence systems development, organizational change, social norms, and individual behavior to improve the health and safety of a population. Injury and violence prevention professionals should consider how their issues resonate with various audiences, including policy makers, the public, and other decision makers. As the cost of healthcare continues to rise and greater demands are placed on the healthcare system, the use of public health policy becomes increasingly critical to protect the public's health and prevent injury and violence and its related morbidities and disabilities (Degutis, 2011). This article highlights some impactful policy successes from the field, allows us to reflect on the Injury Center's 20th anniversary, and describes steps to address injuries and violence into the future. The purpose of this paper is to discuss policy as a public health strategy and the critical role it plays in injury and violence prevention. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  19. Smoke-free air policies: past, present and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyland, Andrew; Barnoya, Joaquin; Corral, Juan E

    2012-03-01

    Smoke-free policies have been an important tobacco control intervention. As recently as 20 years ago, few communities required workplaces and hospitality venues to be smoke-free, but today approximately 11% of the world's population live in countries with laws that require these places to be smoke-free. This paper briefly summarises important milestones in the history of indoor smoke-free policies, the role of scientific research in facilitating their adoption, a framework for smoke-free policy evaluation and industry efforts to undermine regulations. At present, smoke-free policies centre on workplaces, restaurants and pubs. In addition, many jurisdictions are now beginning to implement policies in outdoor areas and in shared multiunit housing settings. The future of smoke-free policy development depends on credible scientific data that documents the health risks of secondhand smoke exposure. Over the next 20 years smoke-free policies will very likely extend to outdoor and private areas, and changes in the types of tobacco products that are consumed may also have implications for the nature and scope of the smoke-free policies of the future.

  20. Moving towards tangible decision-making tools for policy makers: Measuring and monitoring energy access provision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhanot, Jaya; Jha, Vivek

    2012-01-01

    Access to energy services has been recognised as central to achieving economic growth and sustainable development. However, almost 1.3 billion people in the world still lack access to electricity and 2.7 billion lack access to clean cooking facilities. In this backdrop, the issue of energy access is receiving more interest than ever before and this has brought to the fore, the need for a robust decision support tool for policy makers to measure the progress of energy access provision and also to provide direction for future policy making. The paper studies existing definitions of energy access and identifies the key requirements for an appropriate decision-making tool to measure and monitor energy access provision. In this context the paper assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the metrics currently being used to measure energy access in policy, as well as of contemporary monitoring and evaluation frameworks being used in other sectors. Based on these insights, a dashboard of indicators is proposed as an alternate decision support tool for policy makers to measure energy access. The paper concludes with a discussion on what is needed to operationalise this proposed framework. - Highlights: ► No one indicator or metric can successfully capture progress on energy access. ► A service oriented approach is necessary to measure energy access. ► Socio-economic and political contexts influence success of energy access policies.

  1. Assumptions and Policy Decisions for Vital Area Identification Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Myungsu; Bae, Yeon-Kyoung; Lee, Youngseung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and IAEA guidance indicate that certain assumptions and policy questions should be addressed to a Vital Area Identification (VAI) process. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power conducted a VAI based on current Design Basis Threat and engineering judgement to identify APR1400 vital areas. Some of the assumptions were inherited from Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a sabotage logic model was based on PSA logic tree and equipment location data. This paper illustrates some important assumptions and policy decisions for APR1400 VAI analysis. Assumptions and policy decisions could be overlooked at the beginning stage of VAI, however they should be carefully reviewed and discussed among engineers, plant operators, and regulators. Through APR1400 VAI process, some of the policy concerns and assumptions for analysis were applied based on document research and expert panel discussions. It was also found that there are more assumptions to define for further studies for other types of nuclear power plants. One of the assumptions is mission time, which was inherited from PSA.

  2. Preparing future fisheries professionals to make good decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colvin, Michael E.; Peterson, James T.

    2017-01-01

    Future fisheries professionals will face decision-making challenges in an increasingly complex field of fisheries management. Though fisheries students are well trained in the use of the scientific method to understand the natural world, they are rarely exposed to structured decision making (SDM) as part of an undergraduate or graduate education. Specifically, SDM encourages users (e.g., students, managers) to think critically and communicate the problem and then identify specific, measurable objectives as they relate to the problem. Next, users must think critically and creatively about management alternatives that can be used to meet the objectives—there must be more than one alternative or there is no decision to be made. Lastly, the management alternatives are evaluated with regard to how likely they are to succeed in terms of multiple, possibly completing, objectives, such as how stakeholder groups value outcomes of management actions versus monetary cost. We believe that exposure to SDM and its elements is an important part of preparing future fisheries professional to meet the challenges they may face. These challenges include reduced budgets, the growth of potentially competing natural resource interest groups, and stakeholder desire to be involved in management decisions affecting public trust resources, just to name a few.

  3. Policy and advice for a sustainable energy future. The Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Werff, T.T.

    2000-01-01

    The VROM Council offered to host a workshop (27-28 October 2000) for a group of European environmental advisory bodies. This meeting is meant as a kick-off for a working group on energy and climate change. The workshop may help to develop standpoints of the advisory bodies on the basis of shared knowledge of problem perceptions and proposed solutions in other EU countries. This may increase the common denominator and thus promote common EU policies. The proposed title for this workshop is: Reconciling a sustainable energy future with the liberalisation and privatisation of the European energy market One of the participating councils from each country is expected to draft a report on the policies directed at a sustainable energy future in their respective countries. These reports should include the following elements of the national policies and relevant proposals of the councils: a brief description of the current energy supply and a lookout on sustainable development in the energy sector; .a description of the liberalisation and privatisation of the energy market, including the institutional reform (government involvement), juridical changes and realisation path and, if applicable, how the share of non fossil energy generation is enlarged; a description of how in the future a sustainable energy supply will be promoted, including (options for) policy strategies, measures and instruments; and a description of the European Union (EU) policy that is conditional for the realisation of these national policies. The VROM Council has asked CE to produce the report for the Netherlands. The report is organised as follows. Chapter 2 gives a brief description of the current Dutch energy and CO2 characteristics. Chapter 3 gives an overview of Dutch energy policy and chapter 4 an overview of Dutch climate policy. The chapters 5-7 give the views of the various councils on energy and climate policy (AER, VROMRaad, and SER). The final chapter, chapter 8, gives some suggestions for

  4. Planetary protection policy overview and application to future missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummel, John D.

    1989-01-01

    The current status of planetary protection (quarantine) policy within NASA is discussed, together with the issues of planetary protection and back-contamination as related to future missions. The policy adopted by COSPAR in 1984 (and recently reaffirmed by the NASA Administrator) for application to all unmanned missions to other solar system bodies and all manned and unmanned sample return missions is examined. Special attention is given to the implementation of the policy and to the specific quarantine-related constraints on spacecraft involved in solar system exploration that depend on the nature of the mission and the identity of the target body.

  5. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project 'European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast' - http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). A model was built to assess policy scenarios' impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate, and distribution. Reducing, even slightly, the prices of

  6. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Methods A model was built to assess policy scenarios’ impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Results Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Conclusions Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate

  7. Organisational Factors Affecting Policy and Programme Decision Making in a Public Health Policy Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zardo, Pauline; Collie, Alex; Livingstone, Charles

    2015-01-01

    Organisational factors can affect the success of interventions aimed at increasing research use. Research is needed to identify organisational factors affecting research use in specific public health policy contexts. Qualitative interviews with decision makers from a specific public health context identified a range of organisational factors that…

  8. Policy, practice and decision making for zoonotic disease management: water and Cryptosporidium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Zoë; Alcock, Ruth E; Christley, Robert M; Haygarth, Philip M; Heathwaite, A Louise; Latham, Sophia M; Mort, Maggie; Oliver, David M; Pickup, Roger; Wastling, Jonathan M; Wynne, Brian

    2012-04-01

    Decision making for zoonotic disease management should be based on many forms of appropriate data and sources of evidence. However, the criteria and timing for policy response and the resulting management decisions are often altered when a disease outbreak occurs and captures full media attention. In the case of waterborne disease, such as the robust protozoa, Cryptosporidium spp, exposure can cause significant human health risks and preventing exposure by maintaining high standards of biological and chemical water quality remains a priority for water companies in the UK. Little has been documented on how knowledge and information is translated between the many stakeholders involved in the management of Cryptosporidium, which is surprising given the different drivers that have shaped management decisions. Such information, coupled with the uncertainties that surround these data is essential for improving future management strategies that minimise disease outbreaks. Here, we examine the interplay between scientific information, the media, and emergent government and company policies to examine these issues using qualitative and quantitative data relating to Cryptosporidium management decisions by a water company in the North West of England. Our results show that political and media influences are powerful drivers of management decisions if fuelled by high profile outbreaks. Furthermore, the strength of the scientific evidence is often constrained by uncertainties in the data, and in the way knowledge is translated between policy levels during established risk management procedures. In particular, under or over-estimating risk during risk assessment procedures together with uncertainty regarding risk factors within the wider environment, was found to restrict the knowledge-base for decision-making in Cryptosporidium management. Our findings highlight some key current and future challenges facing the management of such diseases that are widely applicable to other

  9. Developing policy analytics for public health strategy and decisions-the Sheffield alcohol policy model framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel

    This paper sets out the development of a methodological framework for detailed evaluation of public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction to meet UK policy-makers needs. Alcohol is known to cause substantial harms, and controlling its affordability and availability are effective policy options. Analysis and synthesis of a variety of public and commercial data sources is needed to evaluate impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers and industry, so a sound evaluation of impact is important. We discuss the iterative process to engage with stakeholders, identify evidence/data and develop analytic approaches and produce a final model structure. We set out a series of steps in modelling impact including: classification and definition of population subgroups of interest, identification and definition of harms and outcomes for inclusion, classification of modifiable components of risk and their baseline values, specification of the baseline position on policy variables especially prices, estimating effects of changing policy variables on risk factors including price elasticities, quantifying risk functions relating risk factors to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and monetary valuation. The most difficult model structuring decisions are described, as well as the final results framework used to provide decision support to national level policymakers in the UK. In the discussion we explore issues around the relationship between modelling and policy debates, valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions. We reflect on the approach taken and outline ongoing plans for further development.

  10. Lessons from photovoltaic policies in China for future development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huo, Mo-lin; Zhang, Dan-wei

    2012-01-01

    The paper first provides an overview of the current status of PV industry development in China, including the penetration speed, the market segments and the value chain. Further, it reviews the experience of governmental interventions composed of the legal framework, market incentives and manufacturing policies for lessons learning. After the Renewable Energy Law took effect in 2006, PV penetration was accelerated. Capital subsidies and feed-in tariffs, which were still in a trial stage, public bidding and the cooperation among relevant Ministries played important roles. A series of public R and D projects provided elemental technologies and meanwhile the preferential tax policies encouraged PV R and D nationwide. Then the paper looks into the future prospects, based on the technical potential, the national indicative targets in 2020, and the energy planning considering the governmental targets of energy transition and CO 2 mitigation. Consequently we analyze problems impeding the future development based on evidences. For instance, there was no predetermined degression of the capital subsidy to push cost reduction; the budget and the organization of public PV R and D were insufficient. Finally, we propose some recommendations on improving policy interventions. - Highlights: ► Surveys the current status of PV industry in China, including the market trend, the installation distribution and the value chain. ► Reviews the experience of governmental interventions composed of the legal framework, market policies and manufacturing policies. ► Looks into future prospects, based on the technical potential, the national targets of 2020, policies of energy transition and CO 2 mitigation. ► Analyzes barriers of future development, and proposes some recommendations on improving policy interventions.

  11. Gun policy and serious mental illness: priorities for future research and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGinty, Emma Elizabeth; Webster, Daniel W; Barry, Colleen L

    2014-01-01

    In response to recent mass shootings, policy makers have proposed multiple policies to prevent persons with serious mental illness from having guns. The political debate about these proposals is often uninformed by research. To address this gap, this review article summarizes the research related to gun restriction policies that focus on serious mental illness. Gun restriction policies were identified by researching the THOMAS legislative database, state legislative databases, prior review articles, and the news media. PubMed, PsycINFO, and Web of Science databases were searched for publications between 1970 and 2013 that addressed the relationship between serious mental illness and violence, the effectiveness of gun policies focused on serious mental illness, the potential for such policies to exacerbate negative public attitudes, and the potential for gun restriction policies to deter mental health treatment seeking. Limited research suggests that federal law restricting gun possession by persons with serious mental illness may prevent gun violence from this population. Promotion of policies to prevent persons with serious mental illness from having guns does not seem to exacerbate negative public attitudes toward this group. Little is known about how restricting gun possession among persons with serious mental illness affects suicide risk or mental health treatment seeking. Future studies should examine how gun restriction policies for serious mental illness affect suicide, how such policies are implemented by states, how persons with serious mental illness perceive policies that restrict their possession of guns, and how gun restriction policies influence mental health treatment seeking among persons with serious mental illness.

  12. Conclusions, Reflections, and Prospects for Future Research, Policy, and Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark-Kazak, Christina

    2012-01-01

    This concluding chapter draws together some of the key themes from the contributions and proposes some recommended areas for future research, policy, and programming. It highlights the artificiality of categorization processes related to both migration and childhood that independent child migrants encounter, and problematizes the…

  13. From Population Databases to Research and Informed Health Decisions and Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machluf, Yossy; Tal, Orna; Navon, Amir; Chaiter, Yoram

    2017-01-01

    In the era of big data, the medical community is inspired to maximize the utilization and processing of the rapidly expanding medical datasets for clinical-related and policy-driven research. This requires a medical database that can be aggregated, interpreted, and integrated at both the individual and population levels. Policymakers seek data as a lever for wise, evidence-based decision-making and information-driven policy. Yet, bridging the gap between data collection, research, and policymaking, is a major challenge. To bridge this gap, we propose a four-step model: (A) creating a conjoined task force of all relevant parties to declare a national program to promote collaborations; (B) promoting a national digital records project, or at least a network of synchronized and integrated databases, in an accessible transparent manner; (C) creating an interoperative national research environment to enable the analysis of the organized and integrated data and to generate evidence; and (D) utilizing the evidence to improve decision-making, to support a wisely chosen national policy. For the latter purpose, we also developed a novel multidimensional set of criteria to illuminate insights and estimate the risk for future morbidity based on current medical conditions. Used by policymakers, providers of health plans, caregivers, and health organizations, we presume this model will assist transforming evidence generation to support the design of health policy and programs, as well as improved decision-making about health and health care, at all levels: individual, communal, organizational, and national.

  14. The structure of German non-proliferation policy - past and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, H.

    1990-01-01

    West German nonproliferation policy has evolved through four phases: First German policy strived to regain the right to nuclear research and industrial development. Then West Germany struggled for participation in NATO nuclear decision-making. Following the conclusion of the NPT, the full development of a mature nuclear industry, including activities in the full fuel cycle, and the promotion of nuclear exports were the focus of national nuclear policy. Starting in the early eighties, political aspects became more important. International security, arms control and disarmament, and foreign reputation had a more prominent role than pure economic interests. In the future, the united Germany must take care not to repeat the sad scandals of the eighties. Its renunciation of nuclear weapons remains a pillar of European stability and a prerequisite for a European peace system. Together with its European partners, Germany can be expected to take a more active, supportive and effective role in international non-proliferation policy. (orig./HSCH) [de

  15. Why Are Cultural Policy Decisions Communicated in Cool Cash?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bille, Trine; Grønholm, Adam; Møgelgaard, Jeppe

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we analyze the role of the economic rationale in modern cultural policy decision communication and ask why it remains such an important factor, even though research has argued against it. Based on Luhmann’s system theory, we show how the economic rationale manifests itself...... in the cultural political communication as parasitic and complementary couplings, and how different communication forms are in play: the indirect, direct, and the both-and form. The point is to construct communicative positions in cultural policy. The positions involve the economic rationale in their own...... particular way and each of them offers themselves as a communicative platform which the culture politician can optionally step into and out of. The arts system stands out from other systems by not distinguishing itself in one single distinction and coding. In exactly this issue lies the communicative...

  16. Fueling our future : strategic energy policy opportunities for Canada : outcomes report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lepine, G.; Poisson, Y.

    2005-01-01

    Canada's economic future is closely linked to its energy future. This report relates outcomes from a conference aimed at understanding the issues and challenges facing the energy sector. The goal of the conference was to promote a dialogue on a national approach to meeting Canada's energy needs. Participants at the conference agreed that ensuring a sustainable energy supply was an overarching challenge. Both unconventional and traditional sources of energy will be needed for supply and export in the future. The development of new sources of both conventional and unconventional energy was a priority. Investments in technological advancement held the key to future development. A consensus emerged that increased energy efficiency is necessary along with strong, articulate energy policies. Market-based decision-making should work in combination with the public sector. The complex regulatory approval process is seen as a serious challenge to Canada's energy future and collaboration is crucial to the success of Canada's energy strategy, with provincial, territorial and federal commitment. Environmental considerations are a significant component, with increased attention paid to issues of climate change in the face of increased demand. Discrepancies in policy and the legally binding Kyoto Protocol were discussed with reference to regulations, policy and tax incentives. A zero-emission future was suggested. Frameworks and policy guidelines are seen as necessary for future advancement, as well as high-level political commitment. It was concluded that more discussion between industry, environmental Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), senior policy makers and advisors is necessary to address energy issues and begin moving forward. Conference agendas, participant lists, biographies and presentation notes were also included

  17. Iran's petroleum policy: Current trends and the future outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pezeshki, S.; Fesharaki, F.

    1994-12-01

    The Iranian economy and political situation have undergone radical changes since the 1979 Islamic revolution. The excesses of the early years of the revolution have gradually given way to moderation and a more pragmatic economic policy--based on the principles of the free market. The petroleum policy, as a subset of the economic policies, has been somewhat affected by the political and economic developments in Iran. The petroleum policy has changed from a position of no foreign participation to a position that includes a desire for foreign participation, the text of a model contract, and an attempt to introduce new technologies in the upstream sector. This report provides an overview of the key issues facing the Iranian oil industry and the economic context in which the oil industry is operating in Iran. It describes the evolution of policies meant to move the oil industry toward the free market; it discusses Iran's oil trading partners, the outlook for refining and project investments, and current and likely future developments in the natural gas and petrochemical sectors. In short, the report provides an up-to-date assessment of the Iranian petroleum sector and its likely evolution in the future

  18. Future Tense and Economic Decisions: Controlling for Cultural Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Seán G; Winters, James; Chen, Keith

    2015-01-01

    A previous study by Chen demonstrates a correlation between languages that grammatically mark future events and their speakers' propensity to save, even after controlling for numerous economic and demographic factors. The implication is that languages which grammatically distinguish the present and the future may bias their speakers to distinguish them psychologically, leading to less future-oriented decision making. However, Chen's original analysis assumed languages are independent. This neglects the fact that languages are related, causing correlations to appear stronger than is warranted (Galton's problem). In this paper, we test the robustness of Chen's correlations to corrections for the geographic and historical relatedness of languages. While the question seems simple, the answer is complex. In general, the statistical correlation between the two variables is weaker when controlling for relatedness. When applying the strictest tests for relatedness, and when data is not aggregated across individuals, the correlation is not significant. However, the correlation did remain reasonably robust under a number of tests. We argue that any claims of synchronic patterns between cultural variables should be tested for spurious correlations, with the kinds of approaches used in this paper. However, experiments or case-studies would be more fruitful avenues for future research on this specific topic, rather than further large-scale cross-cultural correlational studies.

  19. Resolving future fire management conflicts using multicriteria decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Don A; Bode, Michael; Bradstock, Ross A; Keith, David A; Penman, Trent D; Price, Owen F

    2016-02-01

    Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire commonly involve burning native vegetation. However, planned burning can conflict with other societal objectives such as human health and biodiversity conservation. These conflicts are likely to intensify as fire regimes change under future climates and as growing human populations encroach farther into fire-prone ecosystems. Decisions about managing fire risks are therefore complex and warrant more sophisticated approaches than are typically used. We applied a multicriteria decision making approach (MCDA) with the potential to improve fire management outcomes to the case of a highly populated, biodiverse, and flammable wildland-urban interface. We considered the effects of 22 planned burning options on 8 objectives: house protection, maximizing water quality, minimizing carbon emissions and impacts on human health, and minimizing declines of 5 distinct species types. The MCDA identified a small number of management options (burning forest adjacent to houses) that performed well for most objectives, but not for one species type (arboreal mammal) or for water quality. Although MCDA made the conflict between objectives explicit, resolution of the problem depended on the weighting assigned to each objective. Additive weighting of criteria traded off the arboreal mammal and water quality objectives for other objectives. Multiplicative weighting identified scenarios that avoided poor outcomes for any objective, which is important for avoiding potentially irreversible biodiversity losses. To distinguish reliably among management options, future work should focus on reducing uncertainty in outcomes across a range of objectives. Considering management actions that have more predictable outcomes than landscape fuel management will be important. We found that, where data were adequate, an MCDA can support decision making in the complex and often conflicted area of fire management. © 2015

  20. Lusatian lignite. Decisions for the future; Lausitzer Braunkohle. Entscheidungen fuer die Zukunft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daehnert, Detlev [Vattenfall Europe Mining AG, Cottbus (Germany); Vattenfall Europe Generation AG und Co. KG, Cottbus (Germany); Ketzmer, Wolfgang [Vattenfall Europe Generation AG und Co. KG, Cottbus (Germany)

    2008-07-15

    During the past months a number of important decisions regarding the future of the Lusatian lignite mining areas have been made or launched. In the focus is the concept of the long-term opencast mine and power plant development. Essential part of the concept is the strategy for meeting future challenges of climate change policy. CCS is the key for it. It is expected, that the CCS technology will be commercially available after 2020. Another important aspect is among others the use of the priority areas of the Welzow-Sued and Nochten opencast mined. The corresponding long-term lignite mining planning procedures were opened in autumn 2007. The plans of the company contain clear and reliable statements regarding the long-term opencast mine development until 2050. However, all decisions the company makes are focussing on putting people and their needs first. Solutions for mining related questions and requirements are jointly developed with the people of the region. Communities in direct neighbourhood to opencast mines are safely protected against immissions by structural and organisational measures. The principles of socially responsible resettlements set the framework of constructive and trustful co-acting of the people concerned and the company very early. The future post-mining landscape offers alternative utilization forms providing employment for many people. Economic development of the region is an important aspect of the company's activities. Under the headline ''Energy region Lusatia'', representatives of Vattenfall, different educational institutions, authorities and the politics have joined forces to formulate a strategic target for the future development of Lusatia. Sustainable development of lignite-based power generation to meet future climate change policy, development of energy industrial know-how and the use of other fuels are important issues. The results are visible. Lignite takes a solid place in the German Energy mix - it

  1. Transport and energy policy. Looking to the future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aaltonen, T [European Commission (Belgium)

    1996-12-01

    In the quest of filling human needs, transport and energy do not appear to be the most exciting territories. They come in only later in the vast chain of commodities and services necessary in the smooth operation of a modern market economy. However, current concerns about pollution and the future of our planet have lifted these issues to the top of the agenda. The objective of this paper is to give a glance at the complexity of possible futures facing us. Indeed, one of the main objectives is to show that there are different paths to be taken and we can influence our future. Furthermore, it will be shown that a key element in planning for different futures is the proper choice of energy policy objectives and instruments. An even bigger impact could be expected from the changing paradigms in transport demand patterns. (au)

  2. Turning the big knob: an evaluation of the use of energy policy to modulate future climate impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pielke, R.A. Jnr.; Klein, R.; Sarewitz, D.

    2000-01-01

    Conventional wisdom on climate change policy is straightforward: reducing greenhouse gas emissions will avoid the increased frequency and magnitude of climate impacts on environment and society that might occur if emissions are not controlled. The proponents of conventional wisdom widely consider energy policy to be the main policy tool available to decision makers to intentionally modulate future climate impacts. In this paper we challenge the notion that policy makers should intentionally use energy policy to modulate future climate impacts. The paper argues that policy makers may well make large changes in energy policy (and future emissions) without significantly affecting future climate impacts. In other words, even if a theoretical case could be made that energy policy could be used intentionally to modulate future climate, other factors will play a larger role in creating future impact.y and are arguably more amenable to policy change. To illustrate this conclusion, the paper presents a sensitivity analysis under the assumptions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the case of tropical cyclones. One implication of the paper's conclusions is that policy responses to extreme weather events should be decoupled from considerations of energy policy. This decoupling is not intended to diminish either the importance of responding to climate change or of energy policy. Rather, it is to emphasise that there are many responses under the rubric of adaptation that could play a much greater role in reducing societal vulnerability to losses. One of the implications of this change is that scientific uncertainty need not stand in the way of effective action because the measures proposed make sense under any future climate scenario. (author)

  3. The Science-Policy Link: Stakeholder Reactions to the Uncertainties of Future Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, H.; Bye, B.

    2011-12-01

    Policy makers and stakeholders in the coastal zone are equally challenged by the risk of an anticipated rise of coastal Local Sea Level (LSL) as a consequence of future global warming. Many low-lying and often densely populated coastal areas are under risk of increased inundation. More than 40% of the global population is living in or near the coastal zone and this fraction is steadily increasing. A rise in LSL will increase the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure and population dramatically, with potentially devastating consequences for the global economy, society, and environment. Policy makers are faced with a trade-off between imposing today the often very high costs of coastal protection and adaptation upon national economies and leaving the costs of potential major disasters to future generations. They are in need of actionable information that provides guidance for the development of coastal zones resilient to future sea level changes. Part of this actionable information comes from risk and vulnerability assessments, which require information on future LSL changes as input. In most cases, a deterministic approach has been applied based on predictions of the plausible range of future LSL trajectories as input. However, there is little consensus in the scientific community on how these trajectories should be determined, and what the boundaries of the plausible range are. Over the last few years, many publications in Science, Nature and other peer-reviewed scientific journals have revealed a broad range of possible futures and significant epistemic uncertainties and gaps concerning LSL changes. Based on the somewhat diffuse science input, policy and decision makers have made rather different choices for mitigation and adaptation in cases such as Venice, The Netherlands, New York City, and the San Francisco Bay area. Replacing the deterministic, prediction-based approach with a statistical one that fully accounts for the uncertainties and epistemic gaps

  4. Public values for energy futures: Framing, indeterminacy and policy making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Butler, C.; Demski, C.; Parkhill, K.; Pidgeon, N.; Spence, A.

    2015-01-01

    In the UK there are strong policy imperatives to transition toward low carbon energy systems but how and in what ways such transitional processes might be realised remains highly uncertain. One key area of uncertainty pertains to public attitudes and acceptability. Though there is wide-ranging research relevant to public acceptability, very little work has unpacked the multiple questions concerning how policy-makers can grapple with and mitigate related uncertainties in efforts to enact energy systems change. In this paper, public acceptability is identified as an indeterminate form of uncertainty that presents particular challenges for policy making. We build on our existing research into public values for energy system change to explore how the outcomes of the project can be applied in thinking through the uncertainties associated with public acceptability. Notably, we illustrate how the public values identified through our research bring into view alternative and quite different problem and solution framings to those currently evident within UK policy. We argue that engagement with a wide range of different framings can offer a basis for better understanding and anticipating public responses to energy system change, ultimately aiding in managing the complex set of uncertainties associated with public acceptability. - Highlights: • We argue that public acceptability represents an indeterminate form of uncertainty. • This means alternative approaches to decision-making are required. • We introduce a public value set for energy system change. • We use this as a basis for interrogating current UK policy approaches to transitions. • Incorporating public values in policy can help tackle uncertainty about acceptability.

  5. Three essays on decision-making in energy policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendling, Zachary Ann

    This dissertation examines three issues surrounding decision-making in energy policy. Over the past decade, technological advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have allowed the economical extraction of natural gas and petroleum from shale basins. Thus far, natural gas has been produced from shale at a commercial scale only in certain American States and Canadian Provinces, though potential shale plays exist elsewhere in North America and the world. Whether, how, and to what extent SGD diffuses to new shale basins and jurisdictions will depend on several questions about energy policy. The first chapter examines the potential for SGD in the European Union. Among EU institutions, the European Parliament has been the strongest proponent for regulation of SGD, preferring a balance between environmental protection and opportunities for economic development, energy security, and climate mitigation. Analysis of roll call voting on SGD in the Seventh European Parliament shows that ideological preferences are the primary explanation of voting behavior, followed by national interests in decarbonization. Prospects for further regulatory action are discussed. ? The second chapter takes a closer look at the potential of shale gas to facilitate decarbonization in the electricity sector. Proponents of SGD have claimed that high carbon fossil fuels can be immediately phased out and replaced in the short term by power plants that burn cheap, abundant natural gas, which emits half the greenhouse gasses over a well-to-wire life cycle. A value of information analysis examines the conditions under which this may be so and quantifies how valuable it would be to have perfect information about uncertain parameters in a cost function characterizing the global electricity sector. The third chapter is describes a new tool of policy analysis, the Indiana Scalable Energy-Economy Model (IN-SEEM). State and local governments have played an increasing role in energy and climate

  6. Antimalarial drug policy in India: past, present & future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anvikar, Anupkumar R; Arora, Usha; Sonal, G S; Mishra, Neelima; Shahi, Bharatendu; Savargaonkar, Deepali; Kumar, Navin; Shah, Naman K; Valecha, Neena

    2014-02-01

    The use of antimalarial drugs in India has evolved since the introduction of quinine in the 17 th century. Since the formal establishment of a malaria control programme in 1953, shortly after independence, treatments provided by the public sector ranged from chloroquine, the mainstay drug for many decades, to the newer, recently introduced artemisinin based combination therapy. The complexity of considerations in antimalarial treatment led to the formulation of a National Antimalarial Drug Policy to guide procurement as well as communicate best practices to both public and private healthcare providers. Challenges addressed in the policy include the use of presumptive treatment, the introduction of alternate treatments for drug-resistant malaria, the duration of primaquine therapy to prevent relapses of vivax malaria, the treatment of malaria in pregnancy, and the choice of drugs for chemoprophylaxis. While data on antimalarial drug resistance and both public and private sector treatment practices have been recently reviewed, the policy process of setting national standards has not. In this perspective on antimalarial drug policy, this review highlights its relevant history, analyzes the current policy, and examines future directions.

  7. Antimalarial drug policy in India: Past, present & future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anupkumar R Anvikar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of antimalarial drugs in India has evolved since the introduction of quinine in the 17 th century. Since the formal establishment of a malaria control programme in 1953, shortly after independence, treatments provided by the public sector ranged from chloroquine, the mainstay drug for many decades, to the newer, recently introduced artemisinin based combination therapy. The complexity of considerations in antimalarial treatment led to the formulation of a National Antimalarial Drug Policy to guide procurement as well as communicate best practices to both public and private healthcare providers. Challenges addressed in the policy include the use of presumptive treatment, the introduction of alternate treatments for drug-resistant malaria, the duration of primaquine therapy to prevent relapses of vivax malaria, the treatment of malaria in pregnancy, and the choice of drugs for chemoprophylaxis. While data on antimalarial drug resistance and both public and private sector treatment practices have been recently reviewed, the policy process of setting national standards has not. In this perspective on antimalarial drug policy, this review highlights its relevant history, analyzes the current policy, and examines future directions.

  8. Risk perception as a factor in policy and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoberg, L.

    2004-01-01

    Risk perception is often believed to be an important factor in policy decision making, when it comes to the management of hazardous technology. Research on risk perception by the public since the 1970's has purportedly shown that such perception is emotional and based on ignorance. Experts, on the other hand, have been claimed to be objective and correct in their risk assessments. The present paper reviews a large body of research which has led to a quite different conclusions, viz. that emotions play only a marginal role in risk perception, which is mainly driven by ideological concerns and attitudes. The methodological shortcomings of the prevailing view of risk perception as emotional and simply misinformed are described. (author)

  9. Probabilistic Decision Based Block Partitioning for Future Video Coding

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Zhao

    2017-11-29

    In the latest Joint Video Exploration Team development, the quadtree plus binary tree (QTBT) block partitioning structure has been proposed for future video coding. Compared to the traditional quadtree structure of High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) standard, QTBT provides more flexible patterns for splitting the blocks, which results in dramatically increased combinations of block partitions and high computational complexity. In view of this, a confidence interval based early termination (CIET) scheme is proposed for QTBT to identify the unnecessary partition modes in the sense of rate-distortion (RD) optimization. In particular, a RD model is established to predict the RD cost of each partition pattern without the full encoding process. Subsequently, the mode decision problem is casted into a probabilistic framework to select the final partition based on the confidence interval decision strategy. Experimental results show that the proposed CIET algorithm can speed up QTBT block partitioning structure by reducing 54.7% encoding time with only 1.12% increase in terms of bit rate. Moreover, the proposed scheme performs consistently well for the high resolution sequences, of which the video coding efficiency is crucial in real applications.

  10. Rationality versus reality: the challenges of evidence-based decision making for health policy makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaughey, Deirdre; Bruning, Nealia S

    2010-05-26

    Current healthcare systems have extended the evidence-based medicine (EBM) approach to health policy and delivery decisions, such as access-to-care, healthcare funding and health program continuance, through attempts to integrate valid and reliable evidence into the decision making process. These policy decisions have major impacts on society and have high personal and financial costs associated with those decisions. Decision models such as these function under a shared assumption of rational choice and utility maximization in the decision-making process. We contend that health policy decision makers are generally unable to attain the basic goals of evidence-based decision making (EBDM) and evidence-based policy making (EBPM) because humans make decisions with their naturally limited, faulty, and biased decision-making processes. A cognitive information processing framework is presented to support this argument, and subtle cognitive processing mechanisms are introduced to support the focal thesis: health policy makers' decisions are influenced by the subjective manner in which they individually process decision-relevant information rather than on the objective merits of the evidence alone. As such, subsequent health policy decisions do not necessarily achieve the goals of evidence-based policy making, such as maximizing health outcomes for society based on valid and reliable research evidence. In this era of increasing adoption of evidence-based healthcare models, the rational choice, utility maximizing assumptions in EBDM and EBPM, must be critically evaluated to ensure effective and high-quality health policy decisions. The cognitive information processing framework presented here will aid health policy decision makers by identifying how their decisions might be subtly influenced by non-rational factors. In this paper, we identify some of the biases and potential intervention points and provide some initial suggestions about how the EBDM/EBPM process can be

  11. Rationality versus reality: the challenges of evidence-based decision making for health policy makers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruning Nealia S

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current healthcare systems have extended the evidence-based medicine (EBM approach to health policy and delivery decisions, such as access-to-care, healthcare funding and health program continuance, through attempts to integrate valid and reliable evidence into the decision making process. These policy decisions have major impacts on society and have high personal and financial costs associated with those decisions. Decision models such as these function under a shared assumption of rational choice and utility maximization in the decision-making process. Discussion We contend that health policy decision makers are generally unable to attain the basic goals of evidence-based decision making (EBDM and evidence-based policy making (EBPM because humans make decisions with their naturally limited, faulty, and biased decision-making processes. A cognitive information processing framework is presented to support this argument, and subtle cognitive processing mechanisms are introduced to support the focal thesis: health policy makers' decisions are influenced by the subjective manner in which they individually process decision-relevant information rather than on the objective merits of the evidence alone. As such, subsequent health policy decisions do not necessarily achieve the goals of evidence-based policy making, such as maximizing health outcomes for society based on valid and reliable research evidence. Summary In this era of increasing adoption of evidence-based healthcare models, the rational choice, utility maximizing assumptions in EBDM and EBPM, must be critically evaluated to ensure effective and high-quality health policy decisions. The cognitive information processing framework presented here will aid health policy decision makers by identifying how their decisions might be subtly influenced by non-rational factors. In this paper, we identify some of the biases and potential intervention points and provide some initial

  12. Rationality versus reality: the challenges of evidence-based decision making for health policy makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background Current healthcare systems have extended the evidence-based medicine (EBM) approach to health policy and delivery decisions, such as access-to-care, healthcare funding and health program continuance, through attempts to integrate valid and reliable evidence into the decision making process. These policy decisions have major impacts on society and have high personal and financial costs associated with those decisions. Decision models such as these function under a shared assumption of rational choice and utility maximization in the decision-making process. Discussion We contend that health policy decision makers are generally unable to attain the basic goals of evidence-based decision making (EBDM) and evidence-based policy making (EBPM) because humans make decisions with their naturally limited, faulty, and biased decision-making processes. A cognitive information processing framework is presented to support this argument, and subtle cognitive processing mechanisms are introduced to support the focal thesis: health policy makers' decisions are influenced by the subjective manner in which they individually process decision-relevant information rather than on the objective merits of the evidence alone. As such, subsequent health policy decisions do not necessarily achieve the goals of evidence-based policy making, such as maximizing health outcomes for society based on valid and reliable research evidence. Summary In this era of increasing adoption of evidence-based healthcare models, the rational choice, utility maximizing assumptions in EBDM and EBPM, must be critically evaluated to ensure effective and high-quality health policy decisions. The cognitive information processing framework presented here will aid health policy decision makers by identifying how their decisions might be subtly influenced by non-rational factors. In this paper, we identify some of the biases and potential intervention points and provide some initial suggestions about how the

  13. A literature review of the market effects of federal biofuel policy and recommendations for future policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayers, Alex Elgin

    The United States has had a federal biofuels policy since the 1970s. The purpose of this policy was to help the development of a biofuel industry during a time of high fuel prices in order to provide a domestic alternative to expensive foreign oil. Later the policy was changed to help lower the environmental impact caused by conventional fuels. Since that time the industry has grown and currently produces around 15 billion gallons of biofuels every year. The current federal biofuel policy is largely based on one program, the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which mandates the production and blending of several different classes of biofuels and provides a form of subsidy to the biofuel industry. This paper examines the market effects of the federal biofuel policy and provides recommendations for improving the policy to counteract any negative effects. Federal biofuel policy has many far-reaching market effects. Some are easily calculable through expenditures and lost revenues, while others are harder to quantify because their full effects are not yet known. By evaluating these market effects, this paper will provide ample evidence that the federal biofuels policy needs to change, and will show what effects these changes could induce. The biofuels industry largely owes its existence to government policies, however as the research shows the industry can now stand on its own. This paper will examine what will happen if the federal policy is eliminated and what the future of the biofuels industry could hold. Based on these examinations, it is unlikely that the industry needs further government support and policies should be adjusted in light of this.

  14. Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

    2016-02-01

    Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

  15. Debated agronomy: public discourse and the future of biotechnology policy in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braimah, Joseph A; Atuoye, Kilian N; Vercillo, Siera; Warring, Carrie; Luginaah, Isaac

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the highly contested and ongoing biotechnology (Bt) policy-making process in Ghana. We analyse media content on how Bt is viewed in the context of Ghana's parliamentary debate on the Plant Breeders Bill and within the broader public policy-making literature. This paper does not seek to take a position on Bt or the Bill, but to understand how policy actors influence the debate with political and scientific rhetoric in Ghana. The study reveals that in the midst of scientific uncertainties of Bt's potential for sustainable agriculture production and food security, policy decisions that encourage its future adoption are heavily influenced by health, scientific, economic, environmental and political factors dictated by different ideologies, values and norms. While locally pioneered plant breeding is visible and common in the Ghanaian food chain, plant breeding/GMOs/Bt from international corporations is strongly resisted by anti-GMO coalitions. Understanding the complex and messy nature of Bt policy-making is critical for future development of agricultural technology in Ghana and elsewhere.

  16. Using decision pathway surveys to inform climate engineering policy choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Robin; Satterfield, Terre; Hasell, Ariel

    2016-01-19

    Over the coming decades citizens living in North America and Europe will be asked about a variety of new technological and behavioral initiatives intended to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. A common approach to public input has been surveys whereby respondents' attitudes about climate change are explained by individuals' demographic background, values, and beliefs. In parallel, recent deliberative research seeks to more fully address the complex value tradeoffs linked to novel technologies and difficult ethical questions that characterize leading climate mitigation alternatives. New methods such as decision pathway surveys may offer important insights for policy makers by capturing much of the depth and reasoning of small-group deliberations while meeting standard survey goals including large-sample stakeholder engagement. Pathway surveys also can help participants to deepen their factual knowledge base and arrive at a more complete understanding of their own values as they apply to proposed policy alternatives. The pathway results indicate more fully the conditional and context-specific nature of support for several "upstream" climate interventions, including solar radiation management techniques and carbon dioxide removal technologies.

  17. The future of hydropower in Europe: Interconnecting climate, markets and policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaudard, Ludovic; Romerio, Franco

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Connecting the knowledges from various domains, in particular economics, engineering, policy and hydrology. • Giving the keys to assess the linking between hydropower, climate and electricity market. • Making an overall analysis. - Abstract: Hydropower is very important for electricity supply security in the European inter-connexion as well as for the economy of regions (primarily peripheral) that possess water resources. Its future may however be jeopardized by several factors: climate change, the development of new renewable energy, the creation of super and micro-grids, and progress in power storage technology. Energy and climate policy, as well as electricity market design and dynamics play a pivotal role. This article carries out a comprehensive analysis of all these factors and discusses the future of hydropower. This discussion follows an overview of the present situation and of future drivers. The technical, environmental, economic and political aspects of the problem are analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach. The stakes as well as the uncertainties are highlighted. The conclusion is that hydropower has a promising future, particularly in light of emerging sustainable energy policy, but that the risks should not be overlooked. Academics will find a comprehensive interdisciplinary analysis of hydropower in this article, whereas public bodies, communities and hydropower companies can identify the strategic variables that should be taken into consideration in the decision making process. The end of water concessions or authorizations is also evoked

  18. Bridging the gap between evidence and policy for infectious diseases: How models can aid public health decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gwenan M. Knight

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The dominant approach to decision-making in public health policy for infectious diseases relies heavily on expert opinion, which often applies empirical evidence to policy questions in a manner that is neither systematic nor transparent. Although systematic reviews are frequently commissioned to inform specific components of policy (such as efficacy, the same process is rarely applied to the full decision-making process. Mathematical models provide a mechanism through which empirical evidence can be methodically and transparently integrated to address such questions. However, such models are often considered difficult to interpret. In addition, models provide estimates that need to be iteratively re-evaluated as new data or considerations arise. Using the case study of a novel diagnostic for tuberculosis, a framework for improved collaboration between public health decision-makers and mathematical modellers that could lead to more transparent and evidence-driven policy decisions for infectious diseases in the future is proposed. The framework proposes that policymakers should establish long-term collaborations with modellers to address key questions, and that modellers should strive to provide clear explanations of the uncertainty of model structure and outputs. Doing so will improve the applicability of models and clarify their limitations when used to inform real-world public health policy decisions.

  19. Advancing the Field Elder Abuse: Future Directions and Policy Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, XinQi

    2012-01-01

    Elder abuse, sometime called elder mistreatment or elder maltreatment, includes psychological, physical, and sexual abuse, neglect (caregiver neglect and self-neglect), and financial exploitation. Evidence suggests that 1 out of 10 older adult experiences some form of elder abuse, and only 1 of out 25 cases are actually reported to social services agencies. At the same time, elder abuse is associated with significant morbidity and premature mortality. Despite these findings, there is a great paucity in research, practice, and policy dealing with the pervasive issues of elder abuse. Through my experiences as a American Political Sciences Association Congressional Policy Fellow/Health and Aging Policy Fellow working with Administration on Community Living (ACL) (Previously known at Administration on Aging (AoA)) for the last two years, I will describe the major functions of the ACL; and highlight on two major pieces of federal legislation: The Older Americans Act (OAA) and the Elder Justice Act (EJA). Moreover, I will highlight major research gaps and future policy relevant research directions for the field of elder abuse. PMID:23110488

  20. A hierarchical decision aid in a debate on national energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Seppaelaeinen, T.; Oehladt, K.; Ruusunen, J.

    1985-12-01

    A wide public depate on the future energy policy of Finland has been going on for the past few years, and at the moment the discussion is centered around the question whether a new nuclear power plant should be built or not. To clarify the differences between anti-nuclear and pro-nuclear opinions, a decision analysis of the issue was conducted with a microcomputer-based decision aid which utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The participants representing the opposite opinions were the Minister of Finance and a chief industrial executive. This paper presents the preference profiles of the participants and sensitivity analyses of the results, and discusses the implications of the results for the depate. Essential sources of opinion differences are pointed out and a deeper understanding of the issue is gained. This enables focusing the depate on the critical questions and elimination of less important criteria, which otherwise might receive disproportonate attention

  1. Future of US utilities under non-proliferation policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ladesich, J.N.

    1978-01-01

    The non-proliferation policy, a negative policy that closes the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, is only a small part of a chaotic energy environment characterized by inaction. The impact of this environment on California utilities has resulted in a virtual moratorium on new facilities at a time when the nuclear option can be shown to be vital. Utilities are experiencing uncertainties in future power generation because alternatives to nuclear energy may not be the best choices. Utilities feel frustrated by the inaction; not by the objectives of the accountability and security proposals. The utilities will continue to support nuclear power and the completion of the fuel cycle in spite of these uncertainties

  2. Nuclear Export Control Policy in Korea - Present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jongsook

    2008-01-01

    The International community has been facing with the continued challenges for possession and proliferation of WMD over the past years. In addition, it is known that the terrorist groups are interested in acquiring WMD. The black market of WMD related materials and technologies show also the one of seriousness of our challenges. A number of international treaties, agreements and initiatives to control the proliferation of weapons of N, B, C and their delivery system have been existed to deal with these challenges, but their missions are challenged greatly in recent a series of nuclear issues by Iran and North Korea. The paper reviews the current international export control status and Korea export control system and policy. It also addresses some agenda to be done as future export control policy in Korea

  3. Saltsjoebaden V - Taking international air pollution policies into the future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-10-15

    24-26 June 2013, 130 leading international policy makers, scientists, experts and others met at an international workshop in Gothenburg, Sweden, in order to discuss and outline future directions in air pollution science and policy. The workshop, which was organised in close collaboration with the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution and the European Commission, involved several themes such as linkages to climate change including SLCP, nitrogen, global governance and effects to health and environment. The output is a series of recommendations for further actions with respect to effects to health, ecosystems and near-term climate actions. Recommendations were also given with respect to heavy metals and POPs. The recommendations are directed towards several international organisations and initiatives such as CLRTAP, European Commission, Climate and Clean Air Coalition and the Arctic Council. (Author)

  4. New institutional mechanisms to bridge the information gap between climate science and public policy decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, W.; Gulledge, J. M.

    2010-12-01

    Many decision makers lack actionable scientific information needed to prepare for future challenges associated with climate change. Although the scope and quality of available scientific information has increased dramatically in recent years, this information does not always reach - or is not presented in a form that is useful to - decision makers who need it. The producer (i.e. scientists) community tends to be stovepiped, even though consumers (i.e. decision makers) often need interdisciplinary science and analysis. Consumers, who may also be stovepiped in various agencies or subject areas, may lack familiarity with or access to these separate communities, as well as the tools or time to navigate scientific information and disciplines. Closing the communication gap between these communities could be facilitated by institutionalizing processes designed for this purpose. We recommend a variety of mainstreaming policies within the consumer community, as well as mechanisms to generate a strong demand signal that will resonate more strongly with the producer community. We also recommend institutional reforms and methods of incentivizing policy-oriented scientific analysis within the producer community. Our recommendations focus on improving information flow to national security and foreign policy decision makers, but many are relevant to public policy writ large. Recommendations for Producers 1. The scientific community should formally encourage collaborations between natural and social scientists and reward publications in interdisciplinary outlets Incentives could include research funding and honorary awards recognizing service to public policy. 2. Academic merit review should reward research grants and publications targeted at interdisciplinary and/or policy-oriented audiences. Reforms of merit review may require new policies and engaged institutional leadership. Recommendations for Consumers 1. Congress should amend Title VI of the National Defense Education Act

  5. Including values in evidence-based policy making for breast screening: An empirically grounded tool to assist expert decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Lisa

    2017-07-01

    Values are an important part of evidence-based decision making for health policy: they guide the type of evidence that is collected, how it is interpreted, and how important the conclusions are considered to be. Experts in breast screening (including clinicians, researchers, consumer advocates and senior administrators) hold differing values in relation to what is important in breast screening policy and practice, and committees may find it difficult to incorporate the complexity and variety of values into policy decisions. The decision making tool provided here is intended to assist with this process. The tool is modified from more general frameworks that are intended to assist with ethical decision making in public health, and informed by data drawn from previous empirical studies on values amongst Australian breast screening experts. It provides a structured format for breast screening committees to consider and discuss the values of themselves and others, suggests relevant topics for further inquiry and highlights areas of need for future research into the values of the public. It enables committees to publicly explain and justify their decisions with reference to values, improving transparency and accountability. It is intended to act alongside practices that seek to accommodate the values of individual women in the informed decision making process for personal decision making about participation in breast screening. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. From Population Databases to Research and Informed Health Decisions and Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yossy Machluf

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundIn the era of big data, the medical community is inspired to maximize the utilization and processing of the rapidly expanding medical datasets for clinical-related and policy-driven research. This requires a medical database that can be aggregated, interpreted, and integrated at both the individual and population levels. Policymakers seek data as a lever for wise, evidence-based decision-making and information-driven policy. Yet, bridging the gap between data collection, research, and policymaking, is a major challenge.The modelTo bridge this gap, we propose a four-step model: (A creating a conjoined task force of all relevant parties to declare a national program to promote collaborations; (B promoting a national digital records project, or at least a network of synchronized and integrated databases, in an accessible transparent manner; (C creating an interoperative national research environment to enable the analysis of the organized and integrated data and to generate evidence; and (D utilizing the evidence to improve decision-making, to support a wisely chosen national policy. For the latter purpose, we also developed a novel multidimensional set of criteria to illuminate insights and estimate the risk for future morbidity based on current medical conditions.ConclusionUsed by policymakers, providers of health plans, caregivers, and health organizations, we presume this model will assist transforming evidence generation to support the design of health policy and programs, as well as improved decision-making about health and health care, at all levels: individual, communal, organizational, and national.

  7. Changing the Future of Obesity: Science, Policy and Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gortmaker, Steven L; Swinburn, Boyd; Levy, David; Carter, Rob; Mabry, Patricia L.; Finegood, Diane; Huang, Terry; Marsh, Tim; Moodie, Marj

    2011-01-01

    The global obesity epidemic has been on the rise for four decades, yet sustained prevention efforts have barely begun. An emerging science using quantitative models has provided key insights into the dynamics of this epidemic, and made it possible to combine different pieces of evidence and calculate the impact of behaviors, interventions and policies at multiple levels – from person to population. Forecasts indicate large effects of high levels of obesity on future population health and economic outcomes. Energy gap models have quantified the relationships of changes in energy intake and expenditure to weight change, and documented the dominant role of increasing intake on obesity prevalence. The empirical evidence base for effective interventions is limited but growing. Several cost-effective policies are identified that governments should prioritize for implementation. Systems science provides a framework for organizing the complexity of forces driving the obesity epidemic and has important implications for policy-makers. Multiple players (including governments, international organizations, the private sector, and civil society) need to contribute complementary actions in a coordinated approach. Priority actions include policies to improve the food and built environments, cross-cutting actions (such as leadership, health-in-all policies, and monitoring), and much greater funding for prevention programs. Increased investment in population obesity monitoring would improve the accuracy of forecasts and evaluations. Embedding actions within existing systems in both health and non-health sectors (trade, agriculture, transport, urban planning, development) can greatly increase impact and sustainability. We call for a sustained worldwide effort to monitor, prevent and control obesity. PMID:21872752

  8. Economics of climate policy and collective decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buergenmeier, B.; Ferrier, C.; Ingold, K.; Perret, S.; Baranzini, A.; Germond-Duret, C.; Kypreos, S.; Wokaun, A.; Rafaj, P.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context

  9. Review of Family Financial Decision Making: Suggestions for Future Research and Implications for Financial Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jinhee; Gutter, Michael S.; Spangler, Taylor

    2017-01-01

    This article reviews the theories and literature in intrahousehold financial decisions, spousal partners and financial decision making, family system and financial decision process, children, and financial decisions. The article draws conclusions from the literature review and discusses directions for future research and educational programs. Most…

  10. Probabilistic Decision Based Block Partitioning for Future Video Coding

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Zhao; Wang, Shiqi; Zhang, Jian; Wang, Shanshe; Ma, Siwei

    2017-01-01

    , the mode decision problem is casted into a probabilistic framework to select the final partition based on the confidence interval decision strategy. Experimental results show that the proposed CIET algorithm can speed up QTBT block partitioning structure

  11. Carbon offset potentials and design: Anticipating future public policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trexler, M.C.; Kosloff, L.H.; Gowen, M.

    1994-01-01

    Carbon offsets offer CO 2 emitters the opportunity to compensate for some proportion of their CO 2 emissions through the pursuit of emissions reduction or carbon sequestration projects beyond their own operational boundaries. The flexibility to pursue carbon offsets ''off-site'' can dramatically reduce the costs of achieving a given net emissions reduction. The future role of carbon offsets, however, continues to be a topic of considerable debate. Several processes are currently under way nationally and internationally that will help shape this role. This paper discusses how alternative policy outcomes could encourage or restrict the viability of carbon offsets as a component of corporate climate change mitigation portfolios and proposes criteria by which projects should be evaluated prior to the finalization of national or international policy frameworks. Based on these outcomes, the potential for offsets could be very large or very modest. It is vital that policy development in the offset arena account for the still voluntary nature of mitigation efforts and that the objective of climate change mitigation not be forgotten in the push for offset rules and regulations. At the same time, carbon offsets are far from a panacea for climate change mitigation and should be evaluated in the context of a larger global mitigation portfolio

  12. Public Discourse in Energy Policy Decision-Making: Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Idaho Citizen; Eileen DeShazo; John Freemuth; Tina Giannini; Troy Hall; Ann Hunter; Jeffrey C. Joe; Michael Louis; Carole Nemnich; Jennie Newman; Steven J. Piet; Stephen Sorensen; Paulina Starkey; Kendelle Vogt; Patrick Wilson

    2010-08-01

    The ground is littered with projects that failed because of strong public opposition, including natural gas and coal power plants proposed in Idaho over the past several years. This joint project , of the Idaho National Laboratory, Boise State University, Idaho State University and University of Idaho has aimed to add to the tool box to reduce project risk through encouraging the public to engage in more critical thought and be more actively involved in public or social issues. Early in a project, project managers and decision-makers can talk with no one, pro and con stakeholder groups, or members of the public. Experience has shown that talking with no one outside of the project incurs high risk because opposition stakeholders have many means to stop most (if not all) energy projects. Talking with organized stakeholder groups provides some risk reduction from mutual learning, but organized groups tend not to change positions except under conditions of a negotiated settlement. Achieving a negotiated settlement may be impossible. Furthermore, opposition often arises outside pre-existing groups. Standard public polling provides some information but does not reveal underlying motivations, intensity of attitudes, etc. Improved methods are needed that probe deeper into stakeholder (organized groups and members of the public) values and beliefs/heuristics to increase the potential for change of opinions and/or out-of-box solutions. The term “heuristics” refers to the mental short-cuts, underlying beliefs, and paradigms that everyone uses to filter and interpret information, to interpret what is around us, and to guide our actions and decisions. This document is the final report of a 3-year effort to test different public discourse methods in the subject area of energy policy decision-making. We analyzed 504 mail-in surveys and 80 participants in groups on the Boise State University campus for their preference, financial support, and evaluations of eight attributes

  13. Fuzziness and fuzzy modelling in Bulgaria's energy policy decision-making dilemma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xingquan

    2006-01-01

    The decision complexity resulting from imprecision in decision variables and parameters, a major difficulty for conventional decision analysis methods, can be relevantly analysed and modelled by fuzzy logic. Bulgaria's nuclear policy decision-making process implicates such complexity of imprecise nature: stakeholders, criteria, measurement, etc. Given the suitable applicability of fuzzy logic in this case, this article tries to offer a concrete fuzzy paradigm including delimitation of decision space, quantification of imprecise variables, and, of course, parameterisation. (author)

  14. Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

    2017-04-01

    The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

  15. Designing evaluation studies to optimally inform policy: what factors do policy-makers in China consider when making resource allocation decisions on healthcare worker training programmes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Shishi; Legido-Quigley, Helena; Spencer, Julia; Coker, Richard James; Khan, Mishal Sameer

    2018-02-23

    In light of the gap in evidence to inform future resource allocation decisions about healthcare provider (HCP) training in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and the considerable donor investments being made towards training interventions, evaluation studies that are optimally designed to inform local policy-makers are needed. The aim of our study is to understand what features of HCP training evaluation studies are important for decision-making by policy-makers in LMICs. We investigate the extent to which evaluations based on the widely used Kirkpatrick model - focusing on direct outcomes of training, namely reaction of trainees, learning, behaviour change and improvements in programmatic health indicators - align with policy-makers' evidence needs for resource allocation decisions. We use China as a case study where resource allocation decisions about potential scale-up (using domestic funding) are being made about an externally funded pilot HCP training programme. Qualitative data were collected from high-level officials involved in resource allocation at the national and provincial level in China through ten face-to-face, in-depth interviews and two focus group discussions consisting of ten participants each. Data were analysed manually using an interpretive thematic analysis approach. Our study indicates that Chinese officials not only consider information about the direct outcomes of a training programme, as captured in the Kirkpatrick model, but also need information on the resources required to implement the training, the wider or indirect impacts of training, and the sustainability and scalability to other settings within the country. In addition to considering findings presented in evaluation studies, we found that Chinese policy-makers pay close attention to whether the evaluations were robust and to the composition of the evaluation team. Our qualitative study indicates that training programme evaluations that focus narrowly on direct training

  16. The Final Beneficiaries are Actors Active Little and Influential in Decisions on Public Policy in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diolina Rodrigues Santiago Silva

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Public policies are government programs that directly influence the citizens' lives. In the formulation and implementation of these policies, there is the presence of political and private actors. The final beneficiaries are between different types of private actors. Some laws require the government listen to society at the time of decision-making in public policy and in national conferences and public consultations. The final beneficiaries, actual users of these public policies have to reach some mechanisms of direct participation in the formulation of these policies, but the number of participants is smaller and doesn't influence in making government decisions.

  17. Confession and Carrying into Execution of Foreign Arbitration Courts' Decisions: Reciprocity and Public Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarina, Salima A.; Nukusheva, Aigul A.; Kalmagambetov, Kassym S.; Kumysbekova, Zhanara T.; Nesterova, Elena V.

    2016-01-01

    The article contains a comparative analysis of foreign arbitration courts' decisions, ensuring the reciprocity and public policy. The aim of the study is to explore such aspects as reciprocity and public policy of arbitration courts. The result is the view of the public policy, despite its apparent irrelevance in today's Kazakhstan, which is of…

  18. Optimal policy for value-based decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tajima, Satohiro; Drugowitsch, Jan; Pouget, Alexandre

    2016-08-18

    For decades now, normative theories of perceptual decisions, and their implementation as drift diffusion models, have driven and significantly improved our understanding of human and animal behaviour and the underlying neural processes. While similar processes seem to govern value-based decisions, we still lack the theoretical understanding of why this ought to be the case. Here, we show that, similar to perceptual decisions, drift diffusion models implement the optimal strategy for value-based decisions. Such optimal decisions require the models' decision boundaries to collapse over time, and to depend on the a priori knowledge about reward contingencies. Diffusion models only implement the optimal strategy under specific task assumptions, and cease to be optimal once we start relaxing these assumptions, by, for example, using non-linear utility functions. Our findings thus provide the much-needed theory for value-based decisions, explain the apparent similarity to perceptual decisions, and predict conditions under which this similarity should break down.

  19. The opioid crisis: past, present and future policy climate in Ontario, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Kristen A; Eibl, Joseph K; Franklyn, Alexandra M; Marsh, David C

    2017-11-02

    Addressing opioid use disorder has become a priority in Ontario, Canada, because of its high economic, social and health burden. There continues to be stigma and criticism relating to opioid use disorder and treatment options. The result has been unsystematic, partial, reactive policies and programs developed based on divergent points of view. The aim of this manuscript is to describe how past and present understandings, narratives, ideologies and discourse of opioid use, have impacted policies over the course of the growing opioid crisis. Assessing the impact of policy is complex. It involves consideration of conceptual issues of what impacts policy change. In this manuscript we argue that the development of polices and initiatives regarding opioids, opioid use disorder and opioid agonist treatment in the last decade, have been more strongly associated with the evolution of ideas, narratives and discourses rather than research relating to opioids. We formulate our argument using a framework by Sumner, Crichton, Theobald, Zulu, and Parkhurs. We use examples from the Canadian context to outline our argument such as: the anti- drug legislation from the Canadian Federal Conservative government in 2007; the removal of OxyContin™ from the drug formulary in 2012; the rapid expansion of opioid agonist treatment beginning in the early 2000s, the unilateral decision made regarding fee cuts for physicians providing opioid agonist treatment in 2015; and the most recent implementation of a narcotics monitoring system, which are all closely linked with the shifts in public opinion and discourse at the time of which these policies and programs are implemented. We conclude with recommendations to consider a multifactorial response using evidence and stakeholder engagement to address the opioid crisis, rather than a reactive policy approach. We suggest that researchers have an important role in shaping future policy by reframing ideas through knowledge translation, formation of

  20. Future of electronic health records: implications for decision support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothman, Brian; Leonard, Joan C; Vigoda, Michael M

    2012-01-01

    The potential benefits of the electronic health record over traditional paper are many, including cost containment, reductions in errors, and improved compliance by utilizing real-time data. The highest functional level of the electronic health record (EHR) is clinical decision support (CDS) and process automation, which are expected to enhance patient health and healthcare. The authors provide an overview of the progress in using patient data more efficiently and effectively through clinical decision support to improve health care delivery, how decision support impacts anesthesia practice, and how some are leading the way using these systems to solve need-specific issues. Clinical decision support uses passive or active decision support to modify clinician behavior through recommendations of specific actions. Recommendations may reduce medication errors, which would result in considerable savings by avoiding adverse drug events. In selected studies, clinical decision support has been shown to decrease the time to follow-up actions, and prediction has proved useful in forecasting patient outcomes, avoiding costs, and correctly prompting treatment plan modifications by clinicians before engaging in decision-making. Clinical documentation accuracy and completeness is improved by an electronic health record and greater relevance of care data is delivered. Clinical decision support may increase clinician adherence to clinical guidelines, but educational workshops may be equally effective. Unintentional consequences of clinical decision support, such as alert desensitization, can decrease the effectiveness of a system. Current anesthesia clinical decision support use includes antibiotic administration timing, improved documentation, more timely billing, and postoperative nausea and vomiting prophylaxis. Electronic health record implementation offers data-mining opportunities to improve operational, financial, and clinical processes. Using electronic health record data

  1. Assisting Sustainable Forest Management and Forest Policy Planning with the Sim4Tree Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Floris Dalemans

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available As European forest policy increasingly focuses on multiple ecosystem services and participatory decision making, forest managers and policy planners have a need for integrated, user-friendly, broad spectrum decision support systems (DSS that address risks and uncertainties, such as climate change, in a robust way and that provide credible advice in a transparent manner, enabling effective stakeholder involvement. The Sim4Tree DSS has been accordingly developed as a user-oriented, modular and multipurpose toolbox. Sim4Tree supports strategic and tactical forestry planning by providing simulations of forest development, ecosystem services potential and economic performance through time, from a regional to a stand scale, under various management and climate regimes. Sim4Tree allows comparing the performance of different scenarios with regard to diverse criteria so as to optimize management choices. This paper explains the concept, characteristics, functionalities, components and use of the current Sim4Tree DSS v2.5, which was parameterized for the region of Flanders, Belgium, but can be flexibly adapted to allow a broader use. When considering the current challenges for forestry DSS, an effort has been made towards the participatory component and towards integration, while the lack of robustness remains Sim4Tree’s weakest point. However, its structural flexibility allows many possibilities for future improvement and extension.

  2. Improving societal acceptance of rad waste management policy decisions: an approach based on complex intelligence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, Suman

    2008-01-01

    In today's context elaborate public participation exercises are conducted around the world to elicit and incorporate societal risk perceptions into nuclear policy Decision-Making. However, on many occasions, such as in the case of rad waste management, the society remains unconvinced about these decisions. This naturally leads to the questions: are techniques for incorporating societal risk perceptions into the rad waste policy decision making processes sufficiently mature? How could societal risk perceptions and legal normative principles be better integrated in order to render the decisions more equitable and convincing to society? Based on guidance from socio-psychological research this paper postulates that a critical factor for gaining/improving societal acceptance is the quality and adequacy of criteria for option evaluation that are used in the policy decision making. After surveying three rad waste public participation cases, the paper identifies key lacunae in criteria abstraction processes as currently practiced. A new policy decision support model CIRDA: Complex Intelligent Risk Discourse Abstraction model that is based on the heuristic of Risk-Risk Analysis is proposed to overcome these lacunae. CIRDA's functionality of rad waste policy decision making is modelled as a policy decision-making Abstract Intelligent Agent and the agent program/abstraction mappings are presented. CIRDA is then applied to a live (U.K.) rad waste management case and the advantages of this method as compared to the Value Tree Method as practiced in the GB case are demonstrated. (author)

  3. Fair play in energy policy decisions: Procedural fairness, outcome fairness and acceptance of the decision to rebuild nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Visschers, Vivianne H.M.; Siegrist, Michael

    2012-01-01

    To raise public acceptance of new energy policies, promoting the fairness of the outcomes and of the decision-making procedure has been suggested. Very few studies have examined the role of fairness in public acceptance of rebuilding nuclear power plants. Therefore, using a large mail survey, we investigated the public’s acceptance of the decision to rebuild nuclear power plants in Switzerland by 2020. The study examined the influence of procedural fairness and outcome fairness on the acceptance of this decision, as well as other factors such as risk perception and benefit perception. Additionally, we investigated the moderating influence of general attitudes towards nuclear power on the relation between fairness and decision acceptance. Results indicated that outcome fairness strongly increased decision acceptance, along with general attitudes towards nuclear power and perceived economic benefits. Procedural fairness had only a small impact on decision acceptance. The influence of fairness on decision acceptance did not seem to depend on general nuclear attitudes. Our findings imply that, in the case of rebuilding nuclear power plants, perceived benefits and outcome fairness are important determinants of acceptance of the decision, while procedural fairness only has a limited impact. - Highlights: ► We investigated the role of fairness in the acceptance of a nuclear policy decision. ► Outcome fairness strongly influenced decision acceptance regarding nuclear power plants. ► The role of procedural fairness was relatively small in this respect. ► Also, nuclear attitudes and perceived economic benefits affected decision acceptance. ► Outcome fairness seems more relevant for decision acceptance than procedural fairness.

  4. Systematic environmental monitoring model for decision in Public Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jair Cunha Cardoso Filho

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Addresses the existing interdisciplinary between Information Science and public policies, and proposes to environmental monitoring tool as a relevant tool for improving the process of evaluating the effectiveness of these social policies and social programs, there included the legislative branch, through the collection, processing and provision of information allowing to identify the environmental changes and propose, consistently, the improvement of public policies that meet the demands of citizens.

  5. Quantifying the spatial implications of future land use policies in South Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Roux, A.; Augustijn-Beckers, Petronella

    2017-01-01

    Land use policies have a definite and lasting impact on the way that cities grow; however, it is difficult for policy- and decision-makers to observe and quantify the implications of their land use policies and strategies. There is thus a need for information and tools that can adequately support

  6. Do economic policy decisions affect stock market development in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Efficient Market Hypothesis proposes that macroeconomic policy actions do not influence stock market development but the Tobin's q theory argues otherwise. This paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to investigate the impact of macroeconomic policy on the development of the Ghana Stock ...

  7. The Future of Nuclear Power in the Light of European Energy Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweickardt, Hans E.

    2014-01-01

    1. Energy policy post-Fukushima: • Following the initial shock: differentiated development, no cohesive European policy; • EU: Nuclear Power (NP) remains important in the context of climate policy; • Bulk of European countries: Keep or even expand share of NP (UK, Eastern Europe); • Germany and Switzerland (CH): Exit from NP, in Germany based on previously fixed shutdown deadlines for every facility, in CH based on exclusion of new builds. 2. Switzerland's focus: • Current CH electricity supply: twin pillars of NP + hydro power; high sustainability. • Federal Council's new energy strategy and its consequences: Strain on economy and companies due to market distortion and high renovation costs; plus growing environmental stress, dependency on imports and social inequality due to artificially high electricity prices. 3. Future of nuclear power in Switzerland: Conceivable possibilities: • Short-term: Relatively rapid ban on nuclear power (but poss. with back-door research/no ban on thinking about the technology); • Medium-term: Ban on new facilities but old plants continue to operate; • Long-term: Re-entry/new start, poss. even sanctioned by politicians, on the following grounds: rather new facilities than old, good for the climate, costeffectiveness, energy security. 4. A new look for nuclear power? HTR technology of particular interest due to the following benefits: • Disposal (less waste, recycling); • Technical controllability, core meltdown impossible; • Manageable dimensions (particularly important in CH); • Financial feasibility. Whether NP will remain on the agenda, and which technology wins through also depends heavily on external factors: climate policy, cost-effectiveness/financial feasibility, readiness for market, change in value, trends in other energy sources. 5. Summary: Future of NP difficult to predict. If technology is mature and launched on the market within a reasonable time frame, the potential is there. Opportunities

  8. Madagascar's future climate change intensified actions and policy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... actions and policy reforms: fostering local initiatives or business as usual? ... policies in Madagascar, and suggest that there may be fundamental flaws in ... However, World Bank statistics show that, in current terms, Madagascar was ...

  9. Changing foreign policy: the Obama Administration’s decision to oust Mubarak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria do Céu Pinto Arena

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper analyses the decision of the Obama administration to redirect its foreign policy towards Egypt in the wake of the Arab Spring. It attempts to highlight the issue of how governments deal with decision-making at times of crisis, and under which circumstances they take critical decisions that lead to major shifts in their foreign policy track record. It focuses on the process that led to a reassessment of US (United States foreign policy, shifting from decades of support to the autocratic regime of Hosni Mubarak, towards backing his ouster. Specifically, the paper attempts to assess to what extent the decision to withdraw US support from a longstanding state-leader and ally in the Middle East can be seen as a foreign policy change (FPC. A relevant research question this paper pursues is: how can the withdrawal of US support to a regime considered as an ally be considered, in itself, as a radical FPC?

  10. A big data analysis of the relationship between future thinking and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorstad, Robert; Wolff, Phillip

    2018-02-20

    We use big data methods to investigate how decision-making might depend on future sightedness (that is, on how far into the future people's thoughts about the future extend). In study 1, we establish a link between future thinking and decision-making at the population level in showing that US states with citizens having relatively far future sightedness, as reflected in their tweets, take fewer risks than citizens in states having relatively near future sightedness. In study 2, we analyze people's tweets to confirm a connection between future sightedness and decision-making at the individual level in showing that people with long future sightedness are more likely to choose larger future rewards over smaller immediate rewards. In study 3, we show that risk taking decreases with increases in future sightedness as reflected in people's tweets. The ability of future sightedness to predict decisions suggests that future sightedness is a relatively stable cognitive characteristic. This implication was supported in an analysis of tweets by over 38,000 people that showed that future sightedness has both state and trait characteristics (study 4). In study 5, we provide evidence for a potential mechanism by which future sightedness can affect decisions in showing that far future sightedness can make the future seem more connected to the present, as reflected in how people refer to the present, past, and future in their tweets over the course of several minutes. Our studies show how big data methods can be applied to naturalistic data to reveal underlying psychological properties and processes.

  11. Energy Saving by Firms. Decision-Making, Barriers and Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Groot, H.L.F.; Verhoef, E.T.; Nijkamp, P. [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    1999-04-01

    Promoting investments in energy saving technologies is an important means for achieving environmental goals. Unfortunately, the empirical evidence on success conditions of policies is scarce. Based on a survey among Dutch firms, this paper sets out to identify the factors that determine the investment behaviour of firms, their attitude towards various types of energy policy, and their responsiveness to changes in environmental policy in the Netherlands. On the basis of discrete choice models, this paper aims to investigate empirically whether (and how) these strategic features vary over firm characteristics and over sectors. 15 refs.

  12. Energy saving by firms. Decision-making, barriers and policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Groot, H.L.F.; Verhoef, E.T.; Nijkamp, P. [Department of Spatial Economics and Tinbergen Institute, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2001-11-01

    Promoting investments in energy-saving technologies is an important means for achieving environmental goals. Empirical evidence on success conditions of associated policies, however, is scarce. Based on a survey among Dutch firms, this paper sets out to identify the factors that determine the investment behaviour of firms, their attitude towards various types of energy policy, and their responsiveness to changes in environmental policy in the Netherlands. On the basis of discrete choice models, this paper aims to investigate empirically, whether (and how) these strategic features vary over firm characteristics and over sectors.

  13. Energy saving by firms. Decision-making, barriers and policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Groot, H.L.F.; Verhoef, E.T.; Nijkamp, P.

    2001-01-01

    Promoting investments in energy-saving technologies is an important means for achieving environmental goals. Empirical evidence on success conditions of associated policies, however, is scarce. Based on a survey among Dutch firms, this paper sets out to identify the factors that determine the investment behaviour of firms, their attitude towards various types of energy policy, and their responsiveness to changes in environmental policy in the Netherlands. On the basis of discrete choice models, this paper aims to investigate empirically, whether (and how) these strategic features vary over firm characteristics and over sectors

  14. G8 decision on fusion would herald nuclear future

    CERN Multimedia

    Starck, Peter

    2005-01-01

    Nuclear fusion as a future abundant energy source would receive a boost if G8 leaders agree next month on the site for the world's first fusion test reactor, two nuclear scientists said on Wednesday (1 page)

  15. French policy in the nuclear industry and last governmental decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maillard, Dominique

    1999-01-01

    In the wake of the first oil shock, France embarked on an energy policy aimed at strengthening the long-term security of its supplies. French Government has confirmed the continuation of the nuclear power option as an essential component of French energy policy and in the interests of energy self-sufficiency and environmental concerns. The Government is also ready to work actively and seriously on diversifying France's electricity supply

  16. EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF POLICY OPTIONS ON AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES: AN ALTERNATIVE-FUTURES APPROACH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alternative-futures analysis was used to analyze different scenarios of future growth patterns and attendant resource allocations on the agricultural system of Oregon's Willamette River Basin. A stakeholder group formulated three policy alternatives: a continuation of current tr...

  17. Utility of Policy Capturing as an Approach to Graduate Admissions Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Frank L.; And Others

    1978-01-01

    The present study examined and evaluated the application of linear policy-capturing models to the real-world decision task of graduate admissions. Utility of the policy-capturing models was great enough to be of practical significance, and least-squares weights showed no predictive advantage over equal weights. (Author/CTM)

  18. Data-Based Decision Making at the Policy, Research, and Practice Levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schildkamp, Kim; Ebbeler, J.

    2015-01-01

    Data-based decision making (DBDM) can lead to school improvement. However, schools struggle with the implementation of DBDM. In this symposium, we will discuss research and the implementation of DBDM at the national and regional policy level and the classroom level. We will discuss policy issues

  19. Policies for second generation biofuels: current status and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egger, Haakan; Greaker, Mads; Potter, Emily

    2011-07-01

    support to RandD in line with other low emission fuel alternatives. RandD on cellulosic ethanol can also be supported by indirect measures. The most important measure in this respect is to ensure a correct pricing of fossil fuels now and in the future. Many argue that production and use of first generation biofuels will bridge the conversion to second generation biofuels. We doubt that the necessary cost reductions for second generation biofuels can be obtained from widespread use of first generation biofuels. First, the production processes are simply too different, and second, the advantage with all kinds of biofuels are that it easy to introduce into the transport market at once the technology is ripe. Some also argue that second generation biofuels need to be protected against competition from import of low cost first generation biofuels made in developing countries. However, with targeted support to second generation biofuels, there is no need to pay attention to the infant industry argument. Trade policy should only aim to correct for insufficient internalizing of GHG emission costs from the production of biofuels in countries without a price on carbon. It is by no means certain that second generation biofuels will play a central role in the decarbonizing of the transport market. Necessary cost reductions may not be achieved. The GHG emissions from land use change connected to large-scale growing of cellulosic feedstock may turn out to offset the gains from changing fuel. It is important to avoid a technological or political lock-in in biofuels. In other words, policies should be flexible, and it should be possible to terminate support programs within a short notice.(Author)

  20. What Policy Actors Seek for: Reciprocal Misunderstanding of Objectives of Participatory Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Birutė PITRĖNAITĖ-ŽILĖNIENĖ; Birutė MIKULSKIENĖ

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this research is to explore different policy actors’ attitudes towards participation in public decision making. The paper examines objectives of external participants’ involvement and compares various participants’ judgements on the process and results of participation. We screened operation of formal networks of participatory decision making at the Lithuanian Ministries of Health and Education & Science. The research revealed the willingness of decision makers to allow different ...

  1. Using Markov Decision Processes with Heterogeneous Queueing Systems to Examine Military MEDEVAC Dispatching Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-23

    POLICIES THESIS Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational Sciences Graduate School of Engineering and Management Air Force Institute of Technology...dispatching policy and three practitioner-friendly myopic baseline policies. Two computational experiments, a two-level, five-factor screening design and a...over, an open question exists concerning the best exact solution approach for solving Markov decision problems due to recent advances in performance by

  2. Building energy retrofit index for policy making and decision support at regional and national scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khayatian, Fazel; Sarto, Luca; Dall'O', Giuliano

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Machine learning is used for pre-processing, fine-tuning and post-processing data. •A new indicator is introduced to support building energy retrofit policies. •The presented indicator is evaluated by a case study of 4767 buildings. •Current energy indicators can misrepresent the building energy retrofit potential. -- Abstract: The vast data collected since the enforcement of building energy labelling in Italy has provided valuable information that is useful for planning the future of building energy efficiency. However, the indicators provided through energy certificates are not suitable to support decisions, which target building energy retrofit in a regional scale. Considering the bias of the energy performance index toward a building’s shape, decisions based on this index will favor buildings with a specific geometric characteristics. This study tends to overcome this issue by introducing a new indicator, tailored to rank buildings based on retrofitable characteristics. The proposed framework is validated by a case study, in which a large dataset of office buildings are assigned with the new index. Results indicate that the proposed indicator succeeds to extract a single index, which is representative of all building characteristics subject to energy retrofit. A new labeling procedure is also compared with the conventional classification of buildings. It is observed that the proposed labels properly partitions the dataset, according to buildings’ potential to undergo energy retrofit.

  3. Communication among scientists, decision makers and society: Developing policy-relevant global climate change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabo, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    Defining the research most relevant to policy is not simply a technical task that can be answered by scientists. Decision makers need and value information differently than curiosity-driven scientists. In order to link science more effectively to policy, the two communities must gain a greater mutual understanding. Decision makers must define their needs so that scientists can determine how, and by when, research can address these needs. This vital dialogue between communities typically has been more ad hoc than systematic. The complexity and urgency of the global climate change issue necessitate ongoing communication between scientists and decision makers on the information needed for policy development and what research can provide The results of relevant science policy dialogues are discussed herein. Effective communication between researchers and decision makers is a crucial ingredient for successfully addressing society's pressing environmental concerns. The increase in policy makers' demands for research that is relevant to solving societal issues highlights the communication gap between the technical and policy communities. The gap, largely caused by lack of mutual understanding, results in flawed and inadequate communication that hinders decision making and confuses the public. This paper examines the cause of this communication gap and describes the significance of recent efforts to develop more fruitful science-policy dialogues on the issue of global climate change. First, the post-Cold War shift in government priorities for research funding is described; then the underlying relationship between science and policy is explored to identify key sources of ongoing mis-communication. The paper then explains the importance of defining policy-relevant science questions that research can address. Finally, three projects are described involving the elicitation of decision makers' information needs in The United States, The Netherlands, and internationally

  4. The Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report: A Scientific Basis for Policy and Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsey, R.; Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Najjar, R.; Romero-Lankao, P.

    2017-12-01

    The second "State of the Carbon Cycle of North America Report" (SOCCR-2) includes an overview of the North American carbon budget and future projections, the consequences of changes to the carbon budget, details of the carbon budget in major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (including coastal ocean waters), information about anthropogenic drivers, and implications for policy and carbon management. SOCCR-2 includes new focus areas such as soil carbon, arctic and boreal ecosystems, tribal lands, and greater emphasis on aquatic systems and the role of societal drivers and decision making on the carbon cycle. In addition, methane is considered to a greater extent than before. SOCCR-2 will contribute to the next U.S. National Climate Assessment, as well as providing information to support science-based management decisions and policies that include climate change mitigation and adaptation in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. Although the Report is still in the review process, preliminary findings indicate that North America is a net emitter of carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere, and that natural sinks offset about 25% of emitted carbon dioxide. Combustion of fossil fuels represents the largest source of emissions, but show a decreasing trend over the last decade and a lower share (20%) of the global total compared with the previous decade. Forests, soils, grasslands, and coastal oceans comprise the largest carbon sinks, while emissions from inland waters are a significant source of carbon dioxide. The Report also documents the lateral transfers of carbon among terrestrial ecosystems and from terrestrial to near-coastal ecosystems, to complete the carbon cycle accounting. Further, the Report explores the consequences of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on terrestrial and oceanic systems, and the capacity of these systems to continue to act as carbon sinks based on the drivers of future carbon cycle changes, including carbon-climate feedbacks

  5. North Korea's nuclear weapons development. Implications for future policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollack, J.D.

    2010-01-01

    , making it the only state ever to do so, and in February 2005 it declared that it possessed nuclear weapons. It attempted long-range missile launches in July 2006 and April 2009, conducted nuclear tests in October 2006 and May 2009, and since late 2008 has claimed status as a nuclear weapons state outside the NPT. The shortcomings and outright failures in nuclear diplomacy with the DPRK have a long lineage. Under the Agreed Framework of October 1994, the Clinton Administration bought time by freezing North Korea's plutonium production capabilities, but a comprehensive resolution of controversies that triggered the first nuclear crisis was deferred indefinitely. The Bush Administration was openly contemptuous of the arrangements negotiated under its predecessor and walked away from the Agreed Framework, but it lacked a credible fallback plan when Pyongyang resumed its plutonium-based activities. Some senior Bush Administration officials, moreover, were convinced that North Korea would wilt under pressure or even collapse outright, but the DPRK defied such expectations, and moved quickly toward an avowed weapons capability. The DPRK's long pursuit of strategic autonomy, however, remains at the center of this story, and starkly contradicts the North's claims that it is intent on a non-nuclear future. North Korea signed various agreements that, at least in theory, invalidated pursuit of nuclear weapons. These agreements included Pyongyang's assent to basic non-proliferation documents; an inter-Korean accord that entered into force in 1992; bilateral agreements with the United States; and multilateral declarations negotiated at the Six-Party Talks in Beijing in 2005 and 2007. But negotiated agreements failed to eliminate the North Korea's pursuit of the technologies and expertise necessary for a weapons program. By walking away from these agreements, Pyongyang compelled Washington and other capitals to undertake reassessments of previous policies. (author)

  6. Optimum equipment maintenance/replacement policy. Part 2: Markov decision approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charng, T.

    1982-01-01

    Dynamic programming was utilized as an alternative optimization technique to determine an optimal policy over a given time period. According to a joint effect of the probabilistic transition of states and the sequence of decision making, the optimal policy is sought such that a set of decisions optimizes the long-run expected average cost (or profit) per unit time. Provision of an alternative measure for the expected long-run total discounted costs is also considered. A computer program based on the concept of the Markov Decision Process was developed and tested. The program code listing, the statement of a sample problem, and the computed results are presented.

  7. Ethics Instruction for Future Geoscientists: Essential for Contributions to Good Public Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leinen, M.; Mogk, D. W.

    2016-12-01

    Geoscientists work in a world of uncertainty in the complex, dynamic, and chaotic Earth system that is fraught with opportunities to become involved in ethical dilemmas. To be effective contributors to the public discourse on Earth science policy, geoscientists must conduct their work according to the highest personal and professional ethical standards. The geosciences as a discipline relies on the fidelity of geoscience data and their interpretations, geoscience concepts and methodologies must be conveyed to policy makers in ways that allow them to make informed decisions, corporations require a workforce that conducts their affairs according to the highest standards, and the general public expects the highest standards of conduct of geoscientists as they underwrite much of the research supported through tax dollars and the applications of this research impacts personal and societal lives. Geoscientists must have the foundations to identify ethical dilemmas in the first instance, and to have the ethical decision-making skills to either prevent, mitigate or otherwise address ethical issues that arise in professional practice. Awareness of ethical issues arises in many dimensions: Ethics and self (engaging self-monitoring and self-regulating behaviors); Ethics and profession (working according to professional standards); Ethics and society (communicating effectively to policy makers and the general public about the underlying science that informs public policy); and, Ethics and Earth (recognizing the unique responsibilities of geoscientists in the stewardship of Earth). To meet these ethical challenges, training of future geoscientists must be done a) at the introductory level as all students should be aware of ethical implications of geoscience concepts as they impact societal issues; undergraduate geoscience majors need to be explicitly trained in the standards and norms of the geoscience community of practice; graduate students need to be fully prepared to deal

  8. The Hinkley Point decision: An analysis of the policy process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    In 2006, the British government launched a policy to build nuclear power reactors based on a claim that the power produced would be competitive with fossil fuel and would require no public subsidy. A decade later, it is not clear how many, if any, orders will be placed and the claims on costs and subsidies have proved false. Despite this failure to deliver, the policy is still being pursued with undiminished determination. The finance model that is now proposed is seen as a model other European countries can follow so the success or otherwise of the British nuclear programme will have implications outside the UK. This paper contends that the checks and balances that should weed out misguided policies, have failed. It argues that the most serious failure is with the civil service and its inability to provide politicians with high quality advice – truth to power. It concludes that the failure is likely to be due to the unwillingness of politicians to listen to opinions that conflict with their beliefs. Other weaknesses include the lack of energy expertise in the media, the unwillingness of the public to engage in the policy process and the impotence of Parliamentary Committees. - Highlights: •Britain's nuclear power policy is failing due to high costs and problems of finance. •This has implications for European countries who want to use the same financing model. •The continued pursuit of a failing policy is due to poor advice from civil servants. •Lack of expertise in the media and lack of public engagement have contributed. •Parliamentary processes have not provided proper critical scrutiny.

  9. Interdependencies Between the Capital Market and the Monetary Policy Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Guni

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The declared scope of this work is to highlight the main correlations between the monetary and the capital market, including identifying the adequate objective of monetary policy which might positively influence over the offer on the capital market. The main target of the monetary market consists in the stability of the prices. The link between monetary policy and stock market is extremely important. The stock prices are sensible to economical conditions. Moreover, these prices rapidly change, thus there is a chance for a deviation from the fundamental value, with side-effects for economy.

  10. Public health policy decisions on medical innovations: what role can early economic evaluation play?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartz, Susanne; John, Jürgen

    2009-02-01

    Our contribution aims to explore the different ways in which early economic data can inform public health policy decisions on new medical technologies. A literature research was conducted to detect methodological contributions covering the health policy perspective. Early economic data on new technologies can support public health policy decisions in several ways. Embedded in horizon scanning and HTA activities, it adds to monitoring and assessment of innovations. It can play a role in the control of technology diffusion by informing coverage and reimbursement decisions as well as the direct public promotion of healthcare technologies, leading to increased efficiency. Major problems include the uncertainty related to economic data at early stages as well as the timing of the evaluation of an innovation. Decision-makers can benefit from the information supplied by early economic data, but the actual use in practice is difficult to determine. Further empirical evidence should be gathered, while the use could be promoted by further standardization.

  11. Recapitalization, Implications for Educational Policy and Practice and Future Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scheerens, Jaap; Scheerens, Jaap

    2017-01-01

    In this concluding chapter conclusions are drawn, and the relevance of the results for educational science and policy and practice are discussed. Illustrations are provided that were drawn from the exploration of policy and practices in the Netherlands. Synthetic answers to the three research

  12. Nigeria's Population Policy and Future Fertility Decline | Mba ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, promulgated its first explicit population policy in 1988, in response to the soaring population growth rate that impedes developmental efforts. The policy document has stipulated a number of quantitative demographic targets. Paramount ...

  13. Engaging trainees in shaping the future of health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Stephen; Sachedina, Nabihah; King, Judith; Mak, Matthew; Morganstein, Louise; Mytton, Oliver T; Thomas, Justyn

    2011-04-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the views and ideas generated at a recent health policy discussion for doctors in training. This provides an illustration of the creativity and enthusiasm that trainees can bring to the policy sphere by providing unique insights and a fresh perspective.

  14. Energy saving by firms: decision making, barriers and policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, H.L.F.; Verhoef, E.T.; Nijkamp, P.

    2001-01-01

    Promoting investments in energy-saving technologies is an important means for achieving environmental goals. Empirical evidence on success conditions of associated policies, however, is scarce. Based on a survey among Dutch firms, this paper sets out to identify the factors that determine the

  15. Do Economic Policy Decisions affect Stock Market Development in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IMF (2006) firms this up by reporting that out of the world's GDP of $41.3 trillion in ... implications on stock returns. He therefore ... Laopodis (2006) theoretically explain that the outcomes of fiscal policy actions (budget deficits ... issues, political stability, international relations, balance-of-payment situation and others and.

  16. Data Sharing For Precision Medicine: Policy Lessons And Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blasimme, Alessandro; Fadda, Marta; Schneider, Manuel; Vayena, Effy

    2018-05-01

    Data sharing is a precondition of precision medicine. Numerous organizations have produced abundant guidance on data sharing. Despite such efforts, data are not being shared to a degree that can trigger the expected data-driven revolution in precision medicine. We set out to explore why. Here we report the results of a comprehensive analysis of data-sharing guidelines issued over the past two decades by multiple organizations. We found that the guidelines overlap on a restricted set of policy themes. However, we observed substantial fragmentation in the policy landscape across specific organizations and data types. This may have contributed to the current stalemate in data sharing. To move toward a more efficient data-sharing ecosystem for precision medicine, policy makers should explore innovative ways to cope with central policy themes such as privacy, consent, and data quality; focus guidance on interoperability, attribution, and public engagement; and promote data-sharing policies that can be adapted to multiple data types.

  17. Beyond the lab: observations on the process by which science successfully informs management and policy decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, S.

    2012-12-01

    Scientific findings inform management decisions and policy products through various ways, these include: synthesis reports, white papers, in-person and web-based seminars (webinars), communication from specialized staff, and seminal peer-reviewed journal articles. Scientists are often told that if they want their science to inform management decisions and policy products that they must: clearly and simply articulate discreet pieces of scientific information and avoid attaching advocacy messages to the science; however, solely relying on these tenants does not ensure that scientific products will infuse the realms of management and policy. The process by which science successfully informs management decisions and policy products rarely begins at the time the results come out of the lab, but rather, before the research is carried out. Having an understanding of the political climate, management needs, agency research agendas, and funding limitations, as well as developing a working relationship with the intended managers and policy makers are key elements to developing the kind of science results and products that often make an impact in the management and policy world. In my presentation I will provide case-studies from California (USA) to highlight the type of coastal, ocean and climate science that has been successful in informing management decisions and policy documents, as well as provide a state-level agency perspective on the process by which this occurs.

  18. Communication about future policy rates in theory and practice : a survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moessner, R.; Jansen, David-Jan; de Haan, Jakob

    We discuss the theoretical rationale for central bank communication about future policy rates, either as part of inflation targeting or in the form of forward guidance. We also summarize both actual central bank communication about future policy rates and empirical evidence on the effectiveness of

  19. New High: A Future-Oriented Study of American Drug Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-01

    physical health , leading to a decrease in morbidity and mortality from obesity. Nootropics on pharmacy shelves combat hunger, low energy, and...office of the future. 14. SUBJECT TERMS futures, megatrends, emerging technologies, drug policy, public health , war on drugs, forecasting, behavioral... health , scenarios, trends, innovation, regulation, policy, artificial intelligence, brain-computer interface, neural stimulation, nootropics

  20. Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

    2013-01-01

    Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for

  1. Policy processes and decision making of environmental policy in Great Britain and France. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schreiber, H.

    1991-01-01

    Research of central aspects of British environmental policy. This report concentrates on the role of the constitutional system of environmental policy, on the evaluation of a growing of 'Green Policy' in Great Britain, on the central problems of environmental policy and finally on the role of international environmental policy for Great Britain and Great Britain's role in international environmental activities. Beyond that this report contains a presentation of the state of the British environment (Pollution: Air, Water, Waste, Soil; Radioactivity and Noise). (orig.) With 205 refs., 18 tabs., 14 figs [de

  2. Regime change and public policy: the political and macro-economic decision-making of Spanish energy policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lancaster, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This dissertation examines the effects of peaceful regime change on public policy-making. Spain's National Energy Plan (PEN) in particular, and energy planning in general, constitute a critical policy issue which permits direct comparison of decision-making across regime change from the Franco dictatorship to the present constitutional monarchy. The research reveals that the nature of the political coalition underlying Spain's regime change accounts of the lack of significant change in policy-making processes in this particular policy issue. This thesis develops a two-pronged argument to explain the absence of significant policy change. The first is based on a general view of the Franco regime's and the democratic system's coalitional support. In each, three major political forces are seen as central: the military, business, and labor. One of these, business, is seen as being pivotal in the regime transition. Business' pivotal position, it is argued, has permitted a defence of a national energy policy beneficial to its economic interests in energy. The argument's second part focuses on the binding constraint on policy outcomes imposed by private interests in state planning and the generally non-binding nature of oppositional party policy proposals and public opinion.

  3. Factoring consumers' perspectives into policy decisions for nursing competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarus, Jean B; Lee, N Genell

    2006-08-01

    Health care delivery competence and accountability have typically been defined from providers' perspectives, rather than those of consumers as purchasers of services. In 1999, in the face of broad public concern about nursing competence the Alabama Board of Nursing developed an accountability model that established consumers at the center of the model and placed accountability for competent nursing practice at all levels of providers including regulatory agencies, health care organizations, educators, and licensees. The Board then authorized two research projects involving first, consumers perceptions on nursing competence and regulation, and second, comparing their perceptions with those of licensees, nurse educators, and organizational leaders (N = 1,127). Comparative data evidenced significant differences between consumers' and other participants' perceptions. This article highlights how policy implications derived from research resulted in regulatory changes for nursing competence. Five years of progress in policy changes made in the interest of public safety are summarized.

  4. The philosophical moment of the medical decision: revisiting emotions felt, to improve ethics of future decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Coz, Pierr; Tassy, Sebastien

    2007-08-01

    The present investigation looks for a solution to the problem of the influence of feelings and emotions on our ethical decisions. This problem can be formulated in the following way. On the one hand, emotions (fear, pity and so on) can alter our sense of discrimination and lead us to make our wrong decisions. On the other hand, it is known that lack of sensitivity can alter our judgment and lead us to sacrifice basic ethical principles such as autonomy, beneficence, non-maleficence and justice. Only emotions can turn a decision into an ethical one, but they can also turn it into an unreasonable one. To avoid this contradiction, suggest integrating emotions with the decisional factors of the process of "retrospective thinking". During this thinking, doctors usually try to identify the nature and impact of feelings on the decision they have just made. In this retrospective moment of analysis of the decision, doctors also question themselves on the feelings they did not experience. They do this to estimate the consequences of this lack of feeling on the way they behaved with the patient.

  5. A Monte Carlo based decision-support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a novel decision-support tool for assessing future generation portfolios in an increasingly uncertain electricity industry. The tool combines optimal generation mix concepts with Monte Carlo simulation and portfolio analysis techniques to determine expected overall industry costs, associated cost uncertainty, and expected CO 2 emissions for different generation portfolio mixes. The tool can incorporate complex and correlated probability distributions for estimated future fossil-fuel costs, carbon prices, plant investment costs, and demand, including price elasticity impacts. The intent of this tool is to facilitate risk-weighted generation investment and associated policy decision-making given uncertainties facing the electricity industry. Applications of this tool are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with coal, CCGT, and OCGT facing future uncertainties. Results highlight some significant generation investment challenges, including the impacts of uncertain and correlated carbon and fossil-fuel prices, the role of future demand changes in response to electricity prices, and the impact of construction cost uncertainties on capital intensive generation. The tool can incorporate virtually any type of input probability distribution, and support sophisticated risk assessments of different portfolios, including downside economic risks. It can also assess portfolios against multi-criterion objectives such as greenhouse emissions as well as overall industry costs. - Highlights: ► Present a decision support tool to assist generation investment and policy making under uncertainty. ► Generation portfolios are assessed based on their expected costs, risks, and CO 2 emissions. ► There is tradeoff among expected cost, risks, and CO 2 emissions of generation portfolios. ► Investment challenges include economic impact of uncertainties and the effect of price elasticity. ► CO 2 emissions reduction depends on the mix of

  6. Water use impacts of future transport fuels: role of California's climate policy & National biofuel policies (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Yeh, S.; Mishra, G. S.; Tiedeman, K.; Yang, C.

    2013-12-01

    In the coming decades, growing demand for energy and water and the need to address climate change will create huge challenges for energy policy and natural resource management. Synergistic strategies must be developed to conserve and use both resources more efficiently. California (CA) is a prime example of a region where policymakers have began to incorporate water planning in energy infrastructure development. But more must be done as CA transforms its energy system to meet its climate target. We analyze lifecycle water use of current and future transport fuel consumption to evaluate impacts & formulate mitigation strategies for the state at the watershed scale. Four 'bounding cases' for CA's future transportation demand to year 2030 are projected for analysis: two scenarios that only meet the 2020 climate target (business-as-usual, BAU) with high / low water use intensity, and two that meet long-term climate target with high / low water use intensity (Fig 1). Our study focuses on the following energy supply chains: (a) liquid fuels from conventional/unconventional oil & gas, (b) thermoelectric and renewable generation technologies, and (c) biofuels (Fig 2-3). We develop plausible siting scenarios that bound the range of possible water sources, impacts, and dispositions to provide insights into how to best allocate water and limit water impacts of energy development. We further identify constraints & opportunities to improve water use efficiency and highlight salient policy relevant lessons. For biofuels we extend our scope to the entire US as most of the biofuels consumed in California are and will be produced from outside of the state. We analyze policy impacts that capture both direct & indirect land use effects across scenarios, thus addressing the major shortcomings of existing studies, which ignore spatial heterogeneity as well as economic effects of crop displacement and the effects of crop intensification and extensification. We use the agronomic

  7. COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY FROM HEALTH CHECK DECISIONS TO THE POST-2013 REFORM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niculescu Oana Marilena

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposed for being presented belongs to the field research International Affairs and European Integration. The paper entitled Common Agricultural Policy from Health Check decisions to the post-2013 reform aims to analyze the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP from the Health Check adoption in November 2008 to a new reform post-2013. The objectives of the paper are the presentation of the Health Check with its advantages and disadvantages as well as the analysis of the opportunity of a new European policy and its reforming having in view that the analysis of Health Check condition was considered a compromise. The paper is related to the internal and international research consisting in several books, studies, documents that analyze the particularities of the most debated, controversial and reformed EU policy. A personal study is represented by the first report within the PhD paper called The reform of CAP and its implications for Romanias agriculture(coordinator prof. Gheorghe Hurduzeu PhD, Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, Faculty of International Business, research studies in the period 2009-2012. The research methodology used consists in collecting and analysis data from national and international publications, their validation, followed by a dissemination of the results in order to express a personal opinion regarding CAP and its reform. The results of the research consist in proving the opportunity of a new reform due to the fact that Health Check belongs already to the past. The paper belongs to the field research mentioned, in the attempt to prove the opportunity of building a new EU agricultural policy. The challenges CAP is facing are: food safety, environmental and climate changes, territorial balance as well as new challenges-improving sustainable management of natural resources, maintaining competitiveness in the context of globalization growth, strengthening EU cohesion in rural areas, increasing the support of CAP for

  8. Green electricity policy in the Netherlands. An analysis of policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rooijen, Sascha van; Wees, Mark van

    2003-01-01

    Over the last decades, fundamental changes in both market conditions and the national and international policy framework in the Netherlands can be observed. The Dutch Government has intervened in markets regularly, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. The following conclusions can be drawn on the policy choices: First, the objectives and targets of Dutch renewable energy policy were frequently ambiguous. Although the government emphasised the importance of investments in local capacity, imports were always (implicitly) seen as an alternative option in meeting targets. Second, for a long period the government focused on reducing investment costs and dismantling administrative barriers. Only recently has the lack of a stable investment climate been identified as a potential barrier. Third, although many stakeholders have advocated a mandatory approach, Dutch policies stimulating renewable energy have always been voluntary. Finally, the Ministry of Economic Affairs has always played a very dominant role in renewable energy policy formulation and implementation, which may explain the fact that some unfavourable market reactions to policies have not been foreseen. (author)

  9. In-situ burning policy development for California: A consensus approach to policy and decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Addassi, Y. N.

    1997-01-01

    Current efforts by the California State Dept. of Fish and Game to develop an in-situ burning policy for oil spills in the open-water marine environments of the State were described. The differing perspectives and mandates of the various agency representatives on working groups and the frequent necessity of consensus solutions was highlighted. It was stated that the consensus approach requires more time and energy, however, it is off-set by the benefits of developing good working relationships that will ultimately facilitate decision-making. Current projected timelines for the completed in-situ burning policy, pertinent sections of the draft policy, plans for dealing with negative public reactions to the policy and outreach and public education programs were outlined. 12 refs

  10. Parliament's decision specified the energy policy in Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aurela, J.

    2002-01-01

    The Finnish Parliament decided on Friday 24 May 2002, to ratify the favourable decision-in-principle on the fifth nuclear power plant unit made by the Government last January, with 107 votes in favour and 92 votes against. Thus Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO), the Finnish privately owned electricity generation company responsible for the project, is authorised to continue the preparations for the construction of a new nuclear power plant unit. The article handles the process in the coming years if TVO will go on with the process. The most important steps according to the nuclear legislation are to have construction and operating licenses in due time. (author)

  11. Requirements for advanced decision support tools in future distribution network planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grond, M.O.W.; Morren, J.; Slootweg, J.G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the need and requirements for advanced decision support tools in future network planning from a distribution network operator perspective. The existing tools will no longer be satisfactory for future application due to present developments in the electricity sector that increase

  12. The Role of Future Time Perspective in Career Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Terrance L.; Tracey, Terence J. G.

    2012-01-01

    The present study of two hundred and seven university students examined the structural relation of future-orientation (both valence and instrumentality), career decision-making self-efficacy and career indecision (choice/commitment anxiety and lack of readiness) in a sample of 218 college students. Future time perspective was viewed as a key input…

  13. Green electricity policies in the Netherlands: an analysis of policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rooijen, Sascha N.M. van; Wees, Mark T. van

    2006-01-01

    Over the last decades, fundamental changes can be observed in both market conditions and the national policy framework for green electricity in the Netherlands. The Dutch Government has regularly intervened in markets, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders, and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. Dutch green electricity policy over the last decade can be characterised roughly by three phases: in the early 1990s, the government negotiated voluntary agreements with the energy distribution sector on targets for green electricity sales, which were never met. In the second half of the 1990s, a regulatory energy tax was introduced, from which customers of green electricity were exempt. This led to a substantial increase in demand, which was largely met by green electricity imports, and did not lead to additional domestic renewable energy capacity. Finally, a change in policy has taken place recently (2003) shifting the focus from promotion of demand to the promotion of supply through a system of regulated feed-in tariffs. Despite the renewable energy policies, growth of the renewable energy market in the Netherlands has been small and targets have not been fully met. The Dutch government has not yet succeeded in substantially reducing market uncertainties and in building confidence among market parties, because the policies have not been stable and policy objectives have frequently been partly ambiguous. In addition, the influence of stakeholders in renewable energy policy making has been small which has the early acceptance and implementation of alternative policies

  14. Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Araz Ozgur M

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Around the globe, school closures were used sporadically to mitigate the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, such closures can detrimentally impact economic and social life. Methods Here, we couple a decision analytic approach with a mathematical model of influenza transmission to estimate the impact of school closures in terms of epidemiological and cost effectiveness. Our method assumes that the transmissibility and the severity of the disease are uncertain, and evaluates several closure and reopening strategies that cover a range of thresholds in school-aged prevalence (SAP and closure durations. Results Assuming a willingness to pay per quality adjusted life-year (QALY threshold equal to the US per capita GDP ($46,000, we found that the cost effectiveness of these strategies is highly dependent on the severity and on a willingness to pay per QALY. For severe pandemics, the preferred strategy couples the earliest closure trigger (0.5% SAP with the longest duration closure (24 weeks considered. For milder pandemics, the preferred strategies also involve the earliest closure trigger, but are shorter duration (12 weeks for low transmission rates and variable length for high transmission rates. Conclusions These findings highlight the importance of obtaining early estimates of pandemic severity and provide guidance to public health decision-makers for effectively tailoring school closures strategies in response to a newly emergent influenza pandemic.

  15. On developing a prospecting tool for wind industry and policy decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKeown, Charles; Adelaja, Adesoji; Calnin, Benjamin

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the rudiments of a Wind Prospecting Tool designed to inform private and public decision makers involved in wind industry development in reducing transaction costs associated with identifying areas of mutual focus within a state. The multiple layer decision support framework has proven to be valuable to industry, state government and local decision makers. Information on wind resources, land availability, potential land costs, potential NIMBYism concerns and economic development potential were integrated to develop a framework for decision support. The paper also highlights implications for decision support research and the role of higher education in providing anticipatory science to enhance private and public choices in economic development. - Research Highlights: →In this paper we explore the building and value of a wind industry location decision support tool. →We examine the development process from the industry perspective. →We discuss the creation of a decision support tool that was designed for industry, state policy makers and local decision makers. →We build a model framework for wind prospecting decision support. →Finally we discuss the impact on local and state decision making as a result of being informed by science based decision support.

  16. Activities of the Enquiry Commission on Future Nuclear Policy and its contribution to today's parliamentary policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ueberhorst, R.

    1989-01-01

    Positions on the necessity of technology policy, the cooperative conceptualization of controversial concepts and the question of political style are taken up. The precondition for this policy is the elaboration of alternatives. (DG) [de

  17. A word from the DG: Decisions affecting CERN's future

    CERN Multimedia

    2007-01-01

    I would like to inform you of the important issues affecting our Organization that were debated at the Council Session in March. Firstly, on the President's initiative, the Council set up a Working Group to review the way it oversees the Organization's activities. The Council is considering a new approach to governance of the Laboratory that would focus on projects and activities rather than on the organisational structure of Departments as at present. A second important topic related to the Council's future role in the European particle physics strategy. Last July, I reported to you that the Council had taken on a broader role that would involve defining and promoting the major strategic choices for particle physics in Europe. A new structure is required to assist the Council in this role, and it is envisaged that the basic components of this structure would be a Working Group on Strategy and a Commission responsible for the promotion and follow-up of the European particle physics strategy. Work on this s...

  18. Decisions on the way to the future energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulten, R.

    1975-01-01

    The transition to new energy systems, and in this connection the obligatory restructuring of the energy market, will take at last 30 years, as completely new techniques will have to be developed. The energy demand is at present on the increase and will be saturated in about 80 years' time. Recommendations regarding the primary energies to be used in the FRG in the future came to the effect that the import of liquid fossil fuels should be decreased and the money thus saved be spent on further developing the use of nuclear energy combined with inland coal and on the creation of new jobs resulting from this. New en ergy systems which are to be considered: a) nuclear district heating in the form of chemically bound energy, b) coal gasification, c) short-distance supply with hot water, and d) the release of the secondary energy carrier hydrogen by means of the at present still hypothetical thermolysis of water. The real problems resulting from the use of nuclear energy are waste disposal, nuclear fusion, and nuclear fuel supply. Some energy centers located over the whole of the FRG could be in a position to solve these problems in an optimal way. The article ends by going into the question of when a new energy system will be introduced. (GG/LN) [de

  19. The effectiveness of research implementation strategies for promoting evidence-informed policy and management decisions in healthcare: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkies, Mitchell N; Bowles, Kelly-Ann; Skinner, Elizabeth H; Haas, Romi; Lane, Haylee; Haines, Terry P

    2017-11-14

    ) establishing an imperative for practice change, (2) building trust between implementation stakeholders and (3) developing a shared vision, to (4) actioning change mechanisms. This was underpinned by the (5) employment of effective communication strategies and (6) provision of resources to support change. Evidence is developing to support the use of research implementation strategies for promoting evidence-informed policy and management decisions in healthcare. The design of future implementation strategies should be based on the inter-relating factors perceived to be associated with effective strategies. This systematic review was registered with Prospero (record number: 42016032947).

  20. Assessing Patient Participation in Health Policy Decision-Making in Cyprus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyriakos Souliotis

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Although the importance of patient participation in the design and evaluation of health programs and services is well-documented, there is scarcity of research with regard to patient association (PA participation in health policy decision-making processes. To this end, the present study aimed to validate further a previously developed instrument as well as to investigate the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making in Cyprus. A convenient sample of 114 patients-members of patients associations took part in the study. Participants were recruited from an umbrella organization, the Pancyprian Federation of Patient Associations and Friends (PFPA. PA participation in health policy decision-making was assessed with the Health Democracy Index (HDI, an original 8-item tool. To explore its psychometric properties, Cronbach α was computed as regards to its internal consistency, while its convergent validity was tested against a self-rated question enquiring about the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making. The findings revealed that the HDI has good internal consistency and convergent validity. Furthermore, PAs were found to participate more in consultations in health-related organizations and the Ministry of Health (MoH as well as in reforms or crucial decisions in health policy. Lower levels were documented with regard to participation in hospital boards, ethics committees in clinical trials and health technology assessment (HTA procedures. Overall, PA participation levels were found to be lower than the mid-point of the scale. Targeted interventions aiming to facilitate patients’ involvement in health policy decision-making processes and to increase its impact are greatly needed in Cyprus.

  1. Assessing Patient Participation in Health Policy Decision-Making in Cyprus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souliotis, Kyriakos; Agapidaki, Eirini; Peppou, Lily Evangelia; Tzavara, Chara; Samoutis, George; Theodorou, Mamas

    2016-06-20

    Although the importance of patient participation in the design and evaluation of health programs and services is well-documented, there is scarcity of research with regard to patient association (PA) participation in health policy decision-making processes. To this end, the present study aimed to validate further a previously developed instrument as well as to investigate the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making in Cyprus. A convenient sample of 114 patients-members of patients associations took part in the study. Participants were recruited from an umbrella organization, the Pancyprian Federation of Patient Associations and Friends (PFPA). PA participation in health policy decision-making was assessed with the Health Democracy Index (HDI), an original 8-item tool. To explore its psychometric properties, Cronbach α was computed as regards to its internal consistency, while its convergent validity was tested against a self-rated question enquiring about the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making. The findings revealed that the HDI has good internal consistency and convergent validity. Furthermore, PAs were found to participate more in consultations in health-related organizations and the Ministry of Health (MoH) as well as in reforms or crucial decisions in health policy. Lower levels were documented with regard to participation in hospital boards, ethics committees in clinical trials and health technology assessment (HTA) procedures. Overall, PA participation levels were found to be lower than the mid-point of the scale. Targeted interventions aiming to facilitate patients' involvement in health policy decision-making processes and to increase its impact are greatly needed in Cyprus. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  2. FOMC Communication Policy and the Accuracy of Fed Funds Futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Middeldorp, M.H.

    2011-01-01

    Over the last two decades, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the rate-setting body of the United States Federal Reserve System, has become increasingly communicative and transparent. According to policymakers, one of the goals of this shift has been to improve monetary policy predictability.

  3. Cohesion Policy Contributing to Territorial Cohesion – Future Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Faludi

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The Barca Report advocates for developmental policies to be ‘place-based’: integrated as far as they affect ‘places’. The debate on territorial cohesion is equally concerned with integrating relevant policies and actions. This requires well-established democratic institutions and adequate responses to the demands of technical systems and of markets. Following Lisbeth Hooghe and Gary Marks, the respective arrangements are described as Governance Type I and Type II. All levels of government, including that of the EU, partake in both types, but relations between them are problematic, particularly in the context of Europe 2020: Will this EU strategy be mainly a matter for Directorate-Generals and their various clients pursuing their policies (Governance Type II, or will Cohesion policy, with its more integrated and decentralised approach, involving many levels of government and stakeholders (Governance Type I form platforms for integrating them? This paper presents four scenarios; each based on a combination of strong/weak Governance Type I and Type II, which are labelled as the ‘Anglo-Saxon’, ‘Saint-Simonian’, ‘Rhineland’ and the ‘European’ Scenarios. The authors prefer the latter, but the best one can hope for in the short term is for this option not to fall by the wayside.

  4. School Choice: Neoliberal Education Policy and Imagined Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angus, Lawrence

    2015-01-01

    The launch in Australia of a government website that compares all schools on the basis of student performance in standardized tests illustrates the extent to which neoliberal policies have been entrenched. This paper examines the problematic nature of choosing schools within the powerful political context of neoliberalism. It illustrates how key…

  5. The EVOTION Decision Support System: Utilizing It for Public Health Policy-Making in Hearing Loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katrakazas, Panagiotis; Trenkova, Lyubov; Milas, Josip; Brdaric, Dario; Koutsouris, Dimitris

    2017-01-01

    As Decision Support Systems start to play a significant role in decision making, especially in the field of public-health policy making, we present an initial attempt to formulate such a system in the concept of public health policy making for hearing loss related problems. Justification for the system's conceptual architecture and its key functionalities are presented. The introduction of the EVOTION DSS sets a key innovation and a basis for paradigm shift in policymaking, by incorporating relevant models, big data analytics and generic demographic data. Expected outcomes for this joint effort are discussed from a public-health point of view.

  6. Energizing Government Decision-Makers with the Facts on Solar Technology, Policy, and Integration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-01-01

    The Solar Technical Assistance Team (STAT) is a network of solar technology and implementation experts who provide timely, unbiased expertise to assist policymakers and regulators in making informed decisions about solar programs and policies. Government officials can submit requests directly to the STAT for technical assistance. STAT then partners with experts in solar policy, regulation, finance, technology, and other areas to deliver accurate, up-to-date information to state and local decision makers. The STAT responds to requests on a wide range of issues -- including, but not limited to, feed-in tariffs, renewable portfolio standards, rate design, program design, workforce and economic impacts of solar on jurisdictions, and project financing.

  7. Multi-criteria group decision support with linguistic variables in long-term scenarios for Belgian energy policy

    OpenAIRE

    Ruan, Da; Lu, Jie; Laes, Erik; Zhang, Guangquan; Ma, Jun; Meskens, Gaston

    2010-01-01

    Real world decisions often made in the presence of multiple, conflicting, and incommensurate criteria. Decision making requires multiple perspectives of different individuals as more decisions are made now in groups than ever before. This is particularly true when the decision environment becomes more complex such as sustainability policies study in environmental and energy sectors. Group decision making processes judgments or solutions for decision problems based on the input and feedback of...

  8. Understanding farmers' strategic decision-making processes and the implications for biodiversity conservation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmar-Bowers, Quentin; Lane, Ruth

    2009-02-01

    The conservation of biodiversity is an important issue world wide and in Australia the maintenance of native biodiversity on farms makes an important contribution to overall conservation objectives. This paper seeks to explain Australian farmers' rationale for maintaining biodiversity on their farms for personal as opposed to business reasons by developing a decision-systems theory from in-depth interviews. This difference has implications for policy development. The decision-systems theory is divided into two main sections. The first section contains five parts. (1) A hierarchy of motivation stories, (2) the concept of suitability and availability of opportunities, (3) a hierarchy of three decision-systems, (4) the concept of personal career paths, (5) the concept of Lenses. The second section contains one part, a policy classification system called 'boxes of influence' that suggests how policy developers can use the information in the first section to develop new biodiversity conservation policy. The paper suggests that decision-systems theory could be used to shed new light on current trends in agriculture and become an important investigative tool for policy development concerning the conservation of biodiversity on farms.

  9. Life-oriented approach for urban policy decision-making: Surveys and applications

    OpenAIRE

    Junyi Zhang; Yubing Xiong; Minh Tu Tran

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we propose an additional approach, called life-oriented approach, for supporting urban policy decisions. The life-oriented approach argues that people's decisions on various life choices are not independent of each other and that an understanding of life choices should not be constrained by the boundary of any single discipline. People's life choices are closely linked with the quality of life (QOL), which can be roughly captured from the perspective of life domains such as res...

  10. The qualitative characteristics of financial information, and managers’ accounting decisions:evidence from IFRS policy changes

    OpenAIRE

    Nobes, Christopher; Stadler, Christian

    2015-01-01

    This is the first empirical study that uses publicly available data to provide direct evidence about the role of the qualitative characteristics (QCs) of financial information in managements’ accounting decisions. Based on 40,895 hand-collected IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) policy choices on 16 topics made by 514 large firms of 10 jurisdictions in the period 2005–2011, we identify 204 reasons for policy changes. The majority of these refer to QCs from the conceptual frame...

  11. Bioenergy systems sustainability assessment & management (BIOSSAM) guidance portal for policy, decision and development support of integrated bioenergy supply interventions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Stafford, WHL

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available . There are several new bioenergy interventions (policies, projects, or programmes) that are being considered and these developments must be assessed in terms of their sustainability. Both public and private sector policy makers, decision makers, and technology...

  12. Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington

    2014-05-01

    Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to

  13. Integrated Modeling of Water Policy Futures in the Imperial-Mexicali Valleys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjelland, M. K.; Forster, C. B.; Grant, W. E.; Collins, K.

    2004-12-01

    planners and residents of the IMVs are to make sound socioeconomic and environmental policy decisions. We use a spatially-explicit, stochastic, simulation compartment model (based on difference equations with a daily time step programmed with STELLAr software) to simulate the hydrologic system that underlies our broader modeling of the socioeconomic and environmental future of the IMVs. Alternative future scenarios are defined and used to explore the hydrologic and environmental implications of variations in future Colorado River flows, and various water-related policy decisions. The results of a suite of simulations, made assuming that the Sea is not impounded in small sub-Seas, suggest that the salinity of the Salton Sea is most likely to continue increasing. If this is the case, and if restoration of the Salton Sea continues to be a high priority, then more aggressive water conservation methods or a much smaller Salton Sea will be required. More aggressive conservation will lead to greater socioeconomic concerns, while a smaller Sea will increase concerns regarding windblown dust from the exposed lakebed.

  14. Control of mercury emissions: policies, technologies, and future trends

    OpenAIRE

    Rhee, Seung-Whee

    2015-01-01

    Seung-Whee Rhee Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyonggi University, Suwon, Republic of Korea Abstract: Owing to the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Global Mercury Partnership, policies and regulations on mercury management in advanced countries were intensified by a mercury phaseout program in the mercury control strategy. In developing countries, the legislative or regulatory frameworks on mercury emissions are not established specifically, but mercury management is designed...

  15. The Formation of New Monetary Policies: Decisions of Central Banks on the Great Recession

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Esther Castro

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The effect that the Great Recession had on monetary policies has led to the profound reorientation of central banks’ actions from 2007 to 2013. The purpose of this work is to analyze the monetary policies applied by the main central banks, mainly the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve System of USA and the Bank of Japan, in order to raise thoughts on the guidelines that central banks should follow in the future. In the first section the bases of monetary policy before the crisis are described; in the second we explain the change in the orientation of the role of central banks during the crisis; and finally, we synthesize the bases on which the economic debate is taking place on the orientation of future monetary policies. We conclude that, in so far as the inoperativeness of transmission mechanisms still persists, monetary policies will remain in a process of change.

  16. Risk informed decisions and regulations - STUK's policy and current practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Julin, A.; Niemalae, I.; Virolainen, R.

    2001-01-01

    Consideration of severe accidents beyond the traditional design basis, including full core melt accidents, has become an important ingredient of regulatory process in Finland. Accordingly, plant-specific level-1 and level-2 PSA studies are a regulatory requirement. These studies are being used in a living fashion both at the utilities and STUK. Plant specific living PSAs have been completed for all operating Finnish plants, including internal initiators, fires, flooding, harsh weather conditions seismic events for operation mode and internal events for low power mode. Many specific applications of the Living PSA have already been introduced but some are still waiting for further development such as Risk Informed ISI, IST and Tech Specs. Examples of safety issues, for which the PSA insights give an improved basis for decisions, are approvals of plant modifications and resolution of testing, inspection and maintenance strategies. PSA insights are also of value in assessing meaningfulness of requirements which are based on traditional engineering judgement but do not form an essential part of defence-in-depth concept. Examples of such requirements are details of safety classification and many Technical Specification requirements. STUK has recently conducted a pilot study on risk-informed ISI. The aim of the study was to explore how the plant specific PSAs could best be used for assessment of the ISI programmes. This paper discusses the findings obtained during the pilot study on risk-informed ISI of pipings. The study produced essential insights of the applied method. Furthermore, the study gave guidance to extract items for further development. Based on these results and overall experience the general suitability of the method for further application is evaluated. (author)

  17. [Influenza A from the rational choice theory: proposals for decision making in prevention policies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peña, Francisco Garrido; Fernández, Luís Andrés López; García, Eugenia Gil

    2009-01-01

    This article is a reflection on the social uncertainty caused by Influenza A and on the consequences that it can have on decision making in health promotion policies. We use concepts and metaphors of the Rational Choice Theory, among them, the "in gratitude effect" or the "distrust effect", as we analyse how these can become obstacles for the efficiency of prevention policies. Then, we focus on the information asymmetry of the principal-agent relationship, and we propose measures to diminish the "moral risk" that they cause. We finish by advancing some proposals for designing lines and strategies of action in health promotion policies.

  18. Real Decision Support for Health Insurance Policy Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Roger M

    2016-03-01

    We report on an ongoing project to develop data-driven tools to help individuals make better choices about health insurance and to better understand the range of costs to which they are exposed under different health plans. We describe a simulation tool that we developed to evaluate the likely usage and costs for an individual and family under a wide range of health service usage outcomes, but that can be tailored to specific physicians and the needs of the user and to reflect the demographics and other special attributes of the family. The simulator can accommodate, for example, specific known physician visits or planned procedures, while also generating statistically reasonable "unexpected" events like ER visits or catastrophic diagnoses. On the other hand, if a user provides only a small amount of information (e.g., just information about the family members), the simulator makes a number of generic assumptions regarding physician usage, etc., based on the age, gender, and other features of the family. Data to parameterize all of these events is informed by a combination of the information provided by the user and a series of specialized databases that we have compiled based on publicly available government data and commercial data as well as our own analysis of this initially very coarse and rigid data. To demonstrate both the subtlety of choosing a healthcare plan and the degree to which the simulator can aid in such evaluations, we present sample results using real insurance plans and two example policy shoppers with different demographics and healthcare needs.

  19. What Policy Actors Seek for: Reciprocal Misunderstanding of Objectives of Participatory Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birutė PITRĖNAITĖ-ŽILĖNIENĖ

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this research is to explore different policy actors’ attitudes towards participation in public decision making. The paper examines objectives of external participants’ involvement and compares various participants’ judgements on the process and results of participation. We screened operation of formal networks of participatory decision making at the Lithuanian Ministries of Health and Education & Science. The research revealed the willingness of decision makers to allow different stakeholders to contribute to the solution of problems of diverse character. The results of interviews manifested reciprocal miscommunication towards objectives and results of participatory decision making. Public administrators demonstrated their high willingness to acquire expertise, while external participants sought to present specific interests and got them implemented as well. However, it has to be admitted that decision makers are not committed to the results generated by stakeholders.

  20. Merging Energy Policy Decision Support, Education, and Communication: The 'World Energy' Simulation Role-Playing Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-varga, J. N.; Franck, T.; Jones, A.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.

    2013-12-01

    To meet international goals for climate change mitigation and adaptation, as well as energy access and equity, there is an urgent need to explore and define energy policy paths forward. Despite this need, students, citizens, and decision-makers often hold deeply flawed mental models of the energy and climate systems. Here we describe a simulation role-playing game, World Energy, that provides an immersive learning experience in which participants can create their own path forward for global energy policy and learn about the impact of their policy choices on carbon dioxide emissions, temperature rise, energy supply mix, energy prices, and energy demand. The game puts players in the decision-making roles of advisors to the United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative (drawn from international leaders from industry, governments, intergovernmental organizations, and citizens groups) and, using a state-of-the-art decision-support simulator, asks them to negotiate a plan for global energy policy. We use the En-ROADS (Energy Rapid Overview and Decision Support) simulator, which runs on a laptop computer in <0.1 sec. En-ROADS enables users to specify many factors, including R&D-driven cost reductions in fossil fuel-based, renewable, or carbon-neutral energy technologies; taxes and subsidies for different energy sources; performance standards and energy efficiency; emissions prices; policies to address other greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, etc.); and assumptions about GDP and population. In World Energy, participants must balance climate change mitigation goals with equity, prices and access to energy, and the political feasibility of policies. Initial results indicate participants gain insights into the dynamics of the energy and climate systems and greater understanding of the potential impacts policies.

  1. Favorable Decision Upholding Radioactive/Hazardous Mixed Waste Storage Civil Enforcement Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page contains a copy of the U.S. Court of Appeals (District of Columbia Circuit) decision in Edison Electric Institute, et al. v. EPA, No. 91-1586, which upheld the EPA's August 29, 1991, radioactive/hazardous 'mixed waste' storage civil enforcement policy

  2. A Decision Support System for integrated tourism development: Rethinking tourism policies and management strategies

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bousset, J. P.; Skuras, D.; Těšitel, Jan; Marsat, J. B.; Petrou, A.; Fiallo-Pantziou, E.; Kušová, Drahomíra; Bartoš, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 4 (2007), s. 387-404 ISSN 1461-6688 Grant - others:-(XE) QLK5-CT-2000-01211-SPRITE Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Integrated tourism * policy formulation * participatory approaches * simulation models * decision support system Subject RIV: AE - Management ; Administration

  3. Committee Structure and its Implications for Monetary Policy Decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.M. Berk (Jan Marc); B.K. Bierut

    2003-01-01

    textabstractWe investigate the implications for the setting of interest rates when monetary policy decisions are taken by a committee, in which a subset of members may meet prior to the voting in the committee and therefore has the possibility to reach consensus ex ante to vote unanimously ex post.

  4. Committee structure and its implications for monetary policy decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bierut, B.K.; Berk, J.M.

    2003-01-01

    We investigate the implications for the setting of interest rates when monetary policy decisions are taken by a committee, in which a subset of membersmay meet prior to the voting in the committee and therefore has the possibility to reach consensus ex ante to vote unanimously ex post. We allow

  5. Mapping ecosystem services for policy support and decision making in the European Union

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maes, J.; Egoh, B.; Willemen, L.; Liquete, C.; Vihervaara, P.; Schägner, J.P.; Grizzetti, B.; Drakou, E.G.; Notte, La A.; Zulian, G.; Bouraoui, F.; Parcchini, M.L.; Braat, L.C.

    2012-01-01

    Mainstreaming ecosystem services into policy and decision making is dependent on the availability of spatially explicit information on the state and trends of ecosystems and their services. In particular, the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 addresses the need to account for ecosystem services

  6. Discounted semi-Markov decision processes : linear programming and policy iteration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wessels, J.; van Nunen, J.A.E.E.

    1975-01-01

    For semi-Markov decision processes with discounted rewards we derive the well known results regarding the structure of optimal strategies (nonrandomized, stationary Markov strategies) and the standard algorithms (linear programming, policy iteration). Our analysis is completely based on a primal

  7. Discounted semi-Markov decision processes : linear programming and policy iteration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wessels, J.; van Nunen, J.A.E.E.

    1974-01-01

    For semi-Markov decision processes with discounted rewards we derive the well known results regarding the structure of optimal strategies (nonrandomized, stationary Markov strategies) and the standard algorithms (linear programming, policy iteration). Our analysis is completely based on a primal

  8. Public Marketing: An Alternative Policy Decision-Making Idea for Small Cities. Community Development Research Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, James; And Others

    The concept of public marketing presents a strategy for the systems approach to community development that would facilitate the community decision making process via improved communication. Basic aspects of the social marketing process include: (1) product policy; (2) channels of distribution; (3) pricing (perceived price vs quality and quantity…

  9. The Relevance of Theories of the Policy Process to Educational Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, R. J.

    1985-01-01

    Two case studies of educational decision making are used to test the utility of some current theories of the policy-formation process; a framework for the application of these theories is proposed; and the merits of applying existing theories before seeking new paradigms are stressed. (MSE)

  10. The Decision to Form the Kangan Committee--A Case Study in the Educational Policy Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, John

    1983-01-01

    The postsecondary education policymaking process in Australia, rather than being goal-oriented and rational, is a series of adjustments to existing policy dictated by political expediency, often over many years and changes of government and leading to decisions reflecting unstable origins. This committee's broad influences illustrate this process.…

  11. Financing Postsecondary Education: Policy Development and Decision Making. A Series of Conferences. Conference Handbook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Education Commission of the States, Denver, CO.

    This handbook attempts to improve policy development and decision making relative to financing postsecondary education. Sections cover: (1) descriptions and comparisons of selected reports relative to recommendations for postsecondary financing; (2) position statements and/or comments on postsecondary financing from certain cooperative sponsoring…

  12. Challenges for future family policies in the Nordic countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    responsibility of parents, but also a responsibility to be shared with society. Moreover, the Nordic welfare model goes hand-in-hand with the women’s movement by offering opportunities for women, as well as men, to also participate in education and employment. The question remains how more recent trends...... such as New Public Management principles and increased focus on children’s positions and rights affect family policies in the Nordic countries? The authors, who come from all five Nordic countries, discuss the following topics: issues related to family demographics, children’s position in society...

  13. The German energy policy. Future prospects and new economic opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persem, Melanie

    2013-01-01

    This document presents some key information and figures about the German energy policy: share of renewable energy sources in the German energy mix by 2050, societal commitments of citizens, towns and regions as pillars of the energy transition, research and innovation: the keys of a successful energy transition in Germany, the coalition contract and the 2014-2017 government priorities, a safe, affordable and ecological energy transition, renewable energies guidance towards market economy, grids as central and vital elements of the energy transition, the electricity market and the new framework for renewable energies, new economic models to be exploited for smart grids, a change of paradigm with 'smart markets'

  14. Future of energy savings policy in Denmark (in Japanese)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Jørgen

    2007-01-01

    After a brief description of Denmark, its energy development and CO2 emission is outlined, especially in the years after 1973. Energy consumption within the country has remained almost constant, but including the country's large merchant fleet, energy consumption has grown by more than 50% to now...... 260 GJ annually per person. Danish energy saving policies with energy taxes, etc. are described. One important measure has been the use of heat from combined heat and power plants to heat buildings, which used to account for 40% of all energy consumption....

  15. Enhanced Situational Awareness and Decision Support for Operators of Future Distributed Power Network Architectures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zaher, Ammar S. A. E.; Catterson, V. M.; Syed, M. H.

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes scenarios proposed for a control room decision support system aimed at future power network operators. The purpose is to consider the requirements of the future control room from the perspective of the operator under the conditions of a significant frequency excursion incident....... The control room visualisation and decision support functionality for aiding the operator in restoring the frequency to its target value will be considered. The analysis takes place within the Web-ofCells framework, adopted to deal with power system control through a web of subsystems, called cells, which...

  16. Oak policy and management in California: Spanish origins and future considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    James W. Bartolome; Lynn. Huntsinger

    2015-01-01

    The development of goals and policies for Californian oak woodlands is reviewed; then some important considerations for future policy development are highlighted. California and Spain share long and illuminating histories of human interaction with oak woodlands. The Integrated Hardwood Range Management Program, initiated about 1985, was a focal point for Californian...

  17. The European higher education area between critical reflections and future policies

    CERN Document Server

    Matei, Liviu; Pricopie, Remus; Salmi, Jamil; Scott, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Bridging the gap between higher education research and policy making was always a challenge, but the recent calls for more evidence-based policies have opened a window of unprecedented opportunity for researchers to bring more contributions to shaping the future of the European Higher Education Area (EHEA).

  18. On the verge of shared decision making in Israel: Overview and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnieli-Miller, Orit; Miron-Shatz, Talya; Siegal, Gil; Zisman-Ilani, Yaara

    2017-06-01

    Israel has a universal-national healthcare system and a progressive health policy legislation which, together, provide its residents with high-level healthcare services and either free or highly subsidized coverage without any pre-existing conditions. However, it is surprising that shared decision making (SDM) practices and policy are not an integral part of Israel's healthcare system. The purpose of this overview is to describe the gap between the organizational-infrastructure compatibility of Israel's universal healthcare policy and the efforts needed to advance SDM as part of routine healthcare practice. Review of recent research and education initiatives will be described as well as recommendations for policy and clinical practice. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  19. Biofuel initiatives in Japan: Strategies, policies, and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, Naoko; Sano, Daisuke; Elder, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Japan has developed a variety of national strategies and plans related to biofuels which address four main policy objectives, including reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy security, rural development, and realisation of a recycle-based society. This paper reviews these national strategies and plans as well as associated implementing policies, and discusses the extent to which these objectives may be achieved. This paper found that the long-term potential of biofuels to contribute to GHG reduction goals will depend not only on the rates of technological development of the second generation biofuels but also on the development of other advanced vehicles. In the medium term, the potential contribution of biofuels to rural development and realising a recycle-based society could become significant depending on the progress of technology for both second generation biofuel production and the collection and transportation of their feedstocks. The potential contribution of biofuels to Japan's energy security is constrained by the availability of imports and the potential of domestic production. (author)

  20. How Qualitative Research Informs Clinical and Policy Decision Making in Transplantation: A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Allison; Morton, Rachael L; Webster, Angela C

    2016-09-01

    Patient-centered care is no longer just a buzzword. It is now widely touted as a cornerstone in delivering quality care across all fields of medicine. However, patient-centered strategies and interventions necessitate evidence about patients' decision-making processes, values, priorities, and needs. Qualitative research is particularly well suited to understanding the experience and perspective of patients, donors, clinicians, and policy makers on a wide range of transplantation-related topics including organ donation and allocation, adherence to prescribed therapy, pretransplant and posttransplant care, implementation of clinical guidelines, and doctor-patient communication. In transplantation, evidence derived from qualitative research has been integrated into strategies for shared decision-making, patient educational resources, process evaluations of trials, clinical guidelines, and policies. The aim of this article is to outline key concepts and methods used in qualitative research, guide the appraisal of qualitative studies, and assist clinicians to understand how qualitative research may inform their practice and policy.

  1. Modeling decision making as a support tool for policy making on renewable energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cannemi, Marco; García-Melón, Mónica; Aragonés-Beltrán, Pablo; Gómez-Navarro, Tomás

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a study on decision making models for the analysis of capital-risk investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. The aim of the work is to improve the support tools for policy makers in the field of renewable energy development. Analytic Network Process (ANP) helps to better understand capital-risk investors preferences towards different kinds of biomass fueled power plants. The results of the research allow public administration to better foresee the investors’ reaction to the incentive system, or to modify the incentive system to better drive investors’ decisions. Changing the incentive system is seen as major risk by investors. Therefore, public administration must design better and longer-term incentive systems, forecasting market reactions. For that, two scenarios have been designed, one showing a typical decision making process and another proposing an improved decision making scenario. A case study conducted in Italy has revealed that ANP allows understanding how capital-risk investors interpret the situation and make decisions when investing on biomass power plants; the differences between the interests of public administrations’s and promoters’, how decision making could be influenced by adding new decision criteria, and which case would be ranked best according to the decision models. - Highlights: • We applied ANP to the investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. • The aim is to improve the advising tools for renewable energy policy making. • A case study has been carried out with the help of two experts. • We designed two scenarios: decision making as it is and how could it be improved. • Results prove ANP is a fruitful tool enhancing participation and transparency

  2. Accelerating policy decisions to adopt haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine: a global, multivariable analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Jessica C; Stack, Meghan L; Richmond, Marcie R; Bear, Allyson P; Hajjeh, Rana A; Bishai, David M

    2010-03-16

    Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance). Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76), or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75). For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04). Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

  3. Woody biomass policies and location decisions of the woody bioenergy industry in the southern United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Zhimei; Hodges, Donald G.; Young, Timothy M.

    2013-01-01

    Woody biomass for bioenergy production has been included in relatively few renewable energy policies since the 1970s. Recently, however, several states have implemented a variety of new woody biomass policies to spur the establishment of new bioenergy industry. Establishing new woody biomass-based facilities in a specific state is affected by a number of factors such as the strength of these new policy incentives, resource availability, business tax climate, and the available labor force. This study employs a conditional logit model (CLM) to explore the effects of woody biomass policies on the siting decisions of new bioenergy projects relative to some of these other state attributes. The CLM results suggest that state government incentives are significantly related to state success in attracting new plants. The results have substantial implications regarding woody biomass policies and the creation of a new bioenergy industry. -- Highlights: •This study explores the effects of state attributes on the siting decisions of new woody bioenergy projects. •Results suggest that state woody biomass policies are significantly related to state success in attracting new plants. •Other factors related to the siting of woody bioenergy facilities include resource availability, taxes, and wage rate

  4. Papers of the Public Policy Forum conference : Fueling our future : strategic energy policy opportunities for Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    The Public Policy Forum is a unique organization in Canada which promotes excellence in public policy development due to its firm belief that high quality government is fundamental in the competitive global economy. This conference provided a forum to discuss recent developments in the oil markets and energy policies from a public policy perspective. Trends in global energy supply and demand were also reviewed with emphasis on issues such as industry consolidation, regulatory reform and oil pricing. The presentations examined the world energy outlook in terms of fossil fuel consumption, demand growth in developing countries, energy security, and how to reduce greenhouse gases for sustainable development. This conference featured 20 presentations, of which 4 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  5. A New Approach of Investment for the Future Economic Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alin OPREANA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The investment takes the form of sums of money spent for the acquisition of capital goods, changes in business inventories, and the purchases of new residential housing that are not currently consumed, but will be used in the future for the growth of the wealth. The work covered by this study aims to identify the model that presents, in the best possible way, the method of investment’s calculation and to determine the factors of influence. In the first part, the investment is analyzed as a linear function dependent on the interest rate; and the second part implies a new model for determining long-term investments.

  6. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV disease – new data needed to guide future policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Bont

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available RSV is the main cause of childhood lower respiratory infections, globally, an important cause of childhood wheeze and may be responsible for a substantial burden of disease in the very elderly and in adults with chronic medical problems, such as COPD. It is thus responsible for substantial healthcare and social costs. There are currently many companies and academic groups developing and testing candidate vaccines and there is an expectation that these will lead to effective and safe vaccines which will be available to health systems globally in the short- medium term. Despite this, there is an incomplete understanding of RSV disease, especially in adult groups, and large scale data are only available from a few countries and settings leading to low levels of awareness of the importance of this pathogen. We discuss the need for widespread national sentinel systems of RSV surveillance and some means by which this could be achieved. These data will be needed by national policy makers and immunisation advisory groups to guide future priority setting and decision making.

  7. Impact of future price increase on ordering policies for deteriorating items under quadratic demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nita H. Shah

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available When a supplier announces a price increase at a certain time in the future, for each retailer it is important to choose whether to purchase supplementary stock to take benefit of the current lower price or procure at a new price. This article focuses on the possible effects of price increase on a retailer’s replenishment strategy for constant deterioration of items. Here, quadratic demand is debated; which is appropriate for the products for which demand increases initially and subsequently it starts to decrease with the new version of the substitute. We discuss two scenarios in this study: (I when the special order time coincides with the retailer’s replenishment time and (II when the special order time falls during the retailer’s sales period. We determine an optimal ordering policy for each case by maximizing total cost savings between special and regular orders during the depletion time of the special order quantity. Scenarios are established and illustrated with numerical examples. Through, sensitivity analysis important inventory parameters are classified. Graphical results, in two and three dimensions, are exhibited with supervisory decision.

  8. A modeling tool to support decision making in future hydropower development in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicuna, S.; Hermansen, C.; Cerda, J. P.; Olivares, M. A.; Gomez, T. I.; Toha, E.; Poblete, D.; Mao, L.; Falvey, M. J.; Pliscoff, P.; Melo, O.; Lacy, S.; Peredo, M.; Marquet, P. A.; Maturana, J.; Gironas, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Modeling tools support planning by providing transparent means to assess the outcome of natural resources management alternatives within technical frameworks in the presence of conflicting objectives. Such tools, when employed to model different scenarios, complement discussion in a policy-making context. Examples of practical use of this type of tool exist, such as the Canadian public forest management, but are not common, especially in the context of developing countries. We present a tool to support the selection from a portfolio of potential future hydropower projects in Chile. This tool, developed by a large team of researchers under the guidance of the Chilean Energy Ministry, is especially relevant in the context of evident regionalism, skepticism and change in societal values in a country that has achieved a sustained growth alongside increased demands from society. The tool operates at a scale of a river reach, between 1-5 km long, on a domain that can be defined according to the scale needs of the related discussion, and its application can vary from river basins to regions or other spatial configurations that may be of interest. The tool addresses both available hydropower potential and the existence (inferred or observed) of other ecological, social, cultural and productive characteristics of the territory which are valuable to society, and provides a means to evaluate their interaction. The occurrence of each of these other valuable characteristics in the territory is measured by generating a presence-density score for each. Considering the level of constraint each characteristic imposes on hydropower development, they are weighted against each other and an aggregate score is computed. With this information, optimal trade-offs are computed between additional hydropower capacity and valuable local characteristics over the entire domain, using the classical knapsack 0-1 optimization algorithm. Various scenarios of different weightings and hydropower

  9. The mental health system in Brazil: Policies and future challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razzouk Denise

    2008-09-01

    long-stay patients. However, services are unequally distributed across the regions of the country, and the growth of the elderly population, combined with an existing treatment gap is increasing the burden on mental health care. This gap may get even wider if funding does not increase and mental health services are not expanded in the country. There is not yet a good degree of integration between primary care and the mental health teams working at CAPS level, and it is necessary to train professionals to act as mental health planners and as managers. Research on service organization, policy and mental health systems evaluation are strongly recommended in the country. There are no firm data to show the impact of such policies in terms of community service cost-effectiveness and no tangible indicators to assess the results of these policies.

  10. Future command and control systems should combine decision support and personalization interface features

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Streefkerk, J.W.; Smets, N.; Varkevisser, M.; Hiemstra-Van Mastrigt, S.

    2014-01-01

    On future battlefields, increasingly more sensor information will become available for military commanders to support mission execution. To improve (shared) situational awareness, decision-making and communication in face of this increased amount of information, the design of command and control

  11. Inter-generational Decision Making for Radioactive Waste Disposal, Policy and Science: Regulatory Protection Forever?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Regnier, E.P.; Wallo, A.

    2006-01-01

    Assumptions about this generation's duty to future generations underlie decisions on regulatory requirements for disposal of radioactive waste. Regulatory provisions related to time of compliance, dose criteria, and institutional controls, for example, continue to be topics of discussion as regulations are revised or compared. Subjective and difficult ethical issues are either explicit or implicit in these discussions. The information and criteria used must be relevant and help make good decisions that, ideally, increase the overall welfare of future generations. To what extent can or should science usefully inform such decision-making? Both the National Academies of Science and the National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) have reported on this topic, albeit from different viewpoints. This paper explains and expands upon the rationale used for setting compliance time periods such as the Department of Energy's requirement for a 1,000 year time of compliance with dose limits for low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities. It evaluates radioactive waste disposal against principles of equity recommended by NAPA. Radioactive waste disposal standards require evaluation of impacts much farther into the future than has been common for other endeavors with very long term effects. While performance assessment analyses provide much useful information, their inherent uncertainties over long time periods preclude the projection of reality. Thus, the usefulness of extremely long projections in supporting good decisions that promote the welfare of future generations is limited. Such decisions are fundamentally a question of resource allocation, equity, and fairness. (authors)

  12. BEYOND CONNECTIVITY. FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR E-INCLUSION POLICIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu Gheorghiu

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The information society stays at the core of the Lisbon Strategy, despite the dot-com crisis and the still hidden macroeconomic impact of information and communication technology (ICT. Thus, i2010 has been the first concrete initiative of the revised Lisbon Strategy in 2005, while ICT represents by far the field with the largest budget in the 7th Framework Programme (FP7. On the industry side, the stakes are still high in the global competition, where Europe hopes for a place at least for communication technologies and services. However, the extreme dynamics of technology with its sometimes breathtaking promises, poses new challenges for e-inclusion. Firstly, the accelerating pace of innovation maintains a generation type of digital divide between countries with different level of development. Secondly, the changing nature of the network (e.g. web 2.0 with virtual communities; web 3.0 with location based interaction; semantic web; ambient intelligence and “the internet of things” blurs the very distinction between inside and outside the information space. The paper explores these challenges and the associated policy options.

  13. Local scale decision support systems - actual situation and trends for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Govaerts, P.

    1993-01-01

    Based on the communications presented in the session on local scale decision support systems, some common trends for those models have been identified. During the last decade the evolutionary change of those models is related with the better insight in decisions to be taken with respect to interventions, the acceptance of large uncertainties, the perceived importance of social and economic factors and shift of the identity of the user. A more revolutionary change is predicted for the near future, putting most emphasis on the predictive mode, extending the integration of monitoring data in the decision support system, and the use of pre-established scenarios. The local scale decision support system will become the key module of the off-site emergency control room. (author)

  14. Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abstract for presentation on Characterizing the Leaching Behavior of Coal Combustion Residues using the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) to Inform Future Management Decisions. The abstract is attached.

  15. Sustainable winter cities: Future directions for planning, policy and design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pressman, Norman E. P.

    Attempts to generate a "climate-responsive" northern urban form are part of a relatively recent phenomenon and field of investigation. In conjunction with the international "winter cities" movement, the need has been established for explicit, systematic inquiry directed toward national and local action to improve the comfort and lifestyles of all northern inhabitants. It is important to recognize that winter-induced discomforts exist and that they must be acknowledged in planning theory and practice. For northern cities to function more satisfactorily, the negative impacts of winter must be reduced while its beneficial characteristics are enhanced. While not all summer activities can or should be abandoned during winter, proper micro-climatic control is essential if human life is to be retained outside. The outdoor season should be extended since so much indoor isolation occurs. The main principles to be incorporated in exemplary "winter city" design should be contact with nature, year-round usability, user participation, cultural continuity, and the creation of comfortable micro-climatic conditions throughout much of the city's open spaces. All valuable sources of inspiration must be harnessed in the attempt to mediate between organic regionalism and internationalism, on the one hand, and romanticism and pragmatic realism, on the other. Creating optimum conditions for human well-being, habitation, work and intellectual development in each of the four seasons is vital under harsh environments. Adopting a climate-sensitive approach to planning policy and urban design can render everyday life less stressful, especially during the lengthy winter periods found in many northern latitude and high altitude settings.

  16. Immigration Policy and Agriculture: Possible Directions for the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Martin

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Presidential candidate Trump in 2016 promised to prevent unauthorized migration and deport unauthorized foreigners in the United States, and President Trump issued executive orders after taking office in January 2017 that could lead to a 2,000-mile wall on the Mexico-US border and the removal of many of the 11 million unauthorized foreigners, including one million who work in US agriculture. This paper emphasizes that, especially agriculture in the western United States, has long relied on newcomers to fill seasonal farm jobs. The slowdown in Mexico-US migration since 2008-09 means that there are fewer flexible newcomers to supplement the current workforce, which is aging and settled. Farm employers are responding by offering bonuses to satisfy current workers, stretching them with productivity-increasing tools, substituting machines for workers, and supplementing current workforces with legal H-2A guest workers. Immigration policy will influence the choice between mechanization, guest workers, and imports. Several factors suggest that the United States may be poised to embark on another large-scale guest worker program for agriculture.  If it does, farmers should begin to pay Social Security and Unemployment Insurance (UI taxes on the wages of H-2A workers to foster mechanization and development in the workers’ communities of origin by dividing these payroll taxes equally between workers as they depart and commodity-specific boards. Worker departure bonuses could be matched by governments in migrant-sending areas to promote development, and commodity-specific boards could spend monies to reduce dependence on hand labor over time. The economic incentives provided by payroll taxes could help to usher in a new and better era of farm labor.

  17. Edufare for the Future Precariat: The Moral Agenda in Australia's "Earning or Learning" Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, Catherine

    2017-01-01

    This paper considers the educational experience constructed under Australia's policy decision in 2009 to extend compulsory education by requiring that students must be "earning or learning" till 17 years of age. The discussion draws on an empirical project that explored the moral order operating in classrooms for students retained under…

  18. Episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking: intersections between memory and decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schacter, Daniel L; Benoit, Roland G; De Brigard, Felipe; Szpunar, Karl K

    2015-01-01

    This article considers two recent lines of research concerned with the construction of imagined or simulated events that can provide insight into the relationship between memory and decision making. One line of research concerns episodic future thinking, which involves simulating episodes that might occur in one's personal future, and the other concerns episodic counterfactual thinking, which involves simulating episodes that could have happened in one's personal past. We first review neuroimaging studies that have examined the neural underpinnings of episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking. We argue that these studies have revealed that the two forms of episodic simulation engage a common core network including medial parietal, prefrontal, and temporal regions that also supports episodic memory. We also note that neuroimaging studies have documented neural differences between episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking, including differences in hippocampal responses. We next consider behavioral studies that have delineated both similarities and differences between the two kinds of episodic simulation. The evidence indicates that episodic future and counterfactual thinking are characterized by similarly reduced levels of specific detail compared with episodic memory, but that the effects of repeatedly imagining a possible experience have sharply contrasting effects on the perceived plausibility of those events during episodic future thinking versus episodic counterfactual thinking. Finally, we conclude by discussing the functional consequences of future and counterfactual simulations for decisions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poff, N. Leroy; Brown, Casey M.; Grantham, Theodore E.; Matthews, John H.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Spence, Caitlin M.; Wilby, Robert L.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Mendoza, Guillermo F.; Dominique, Kathleen C.; Baeza, Andres

    2016-01-01

    Managing freshwater resources sustainably under future climatic and hydrological uncertainty poses novel challenges. Rehabilitation of ageing infrastructure and construction of new dams are widely viewed as solutions to diminish climate risk, but attaining the broad goal of freshwater sustainability will require expansion of the prevailing water resources management paradigm beyond narrow economic criteria to include socially valued ecosystem functions and services. We introduce a new decision framework, eco-engineering decision scaling (EEDS), that explicitly and quantitatively explores trade-offs in stakeholder-defined engineering and ecological performance metrics across a range of possible management actions under unknown future hydrological and climate states. We illustrate its potential application through a hypothetical case study of the Iowa River, USA. EEDS holds promise as a powerful framework for operationalizing freshwater sustainability under future hydrological uncertainty by fostering collaboration across historically conflicting perspectives of water resource engineering and river conservation ecology to design and operate water infrastructure for social and environmental benefits.

  20. Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poff, N LeRoy; Brown, Casey M; Grantham, Theodore E.; Matthews, John H; Palmer, Margaret A.; Spence, Caitlin M; Wilby, Robert L.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Mendoza, Guillermo F; Dominique, Kathleen C; Baeza, Andres

    2015-01-01

    Managing freshwater resources sustainably under future climatic and hydrological uncertainty poses novel challenges. Rehabilitation of ageing infrastructure and construction of new dams are widely viewed as solutions to diminish climate risk, but attaining the broad goal of freshwater sustainability will require expansion of the prevailing water resources management paradigm beyond narrow economic criteria to include socially valued ecosystem functions and services. We introduce a new decision framework, eco-engineering decision scaling (EEDS), that explicitly and quantitatively explores trade-offs in stakeholder-defined engineering and ecological performance metrics across a range of possible management actions under unknown future hydrological and climate states. We illustrate its potential application through a hypothetical case study of the Iowa River, USA. EEDS holds promise as a powerful framework for operationalizing freshwater sustainability under future hydrological uncertainty by fostering collaboration across historically conflicting perspectives of water resource engineering and river conservation ecology to design and operate water infrastructure for social and environmental benefits.

  1. The Montreal Protocol treaty and its illuminating history of science-policy decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grady, C.

    2017-12-01

    The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, hailed as one of the most effective environmental treaties of all time, has a thirty year history of science-policy decision-making. The partnership between Parties to the Montreal Protocol and its technical assessment panels serve as a basis for understanding successes and evaluating stumbles of global environmental decision-making. Real-world environmental treaty negotiations can be highly time-sensitive, politically motivated, and resource constrained thus scientists and policymakers alike are often unable to confront the uncertainties associated with the multitude of choices. The science-policy relationship built within the framework of the Montreal Protocol has helped constrain uncertainty and inform policy decisions but has also highlighted the limitations of the use of scientific understanding in political decision-making. This talk will describe the evolution of the scientist-policymaker relationship over the history of the Montreal Protocol. Examples will illustrate how the Montreal Protocol's technical panels inform decisions of the country governments and will characterize different approaches pursued by different countries with a particular focus on the recently adopted Kigali Amendment. In addition, this talk will take a deeper dive with an analysis of the historic technical panel assessments on estimating financial resources necessary to enable compliance to the Montreal Protocol compared to the political financial decisions made through the Protocol's Multilateral Fund replenishment negotiation process. Finally, this talk will describe the useful lessons and challenges from these interactions and how they may be applicable in other environmental management frameworks across multiple scales under changing climatic conditions.

  2. A multicriteria decision making approach applied to improving maintenance policies in healthcare organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnero, María Carmen; Gómez, Andrés

    2016-04-23

    Healthcare organizations have far greater maintenance needs for their medical equipment than other organization, as many are used directly with patients. However, the literature on asset management in healthcare organizations is very limited. The aim of this research is to provide more rational application of maintenance policies, leading to an increase in quality of care. This article describes a multicriteria decision-making approach which integrates Markov chains with the multicriteria Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH), to facilitate the best choice of combination of maintenance policies by using the judgements of a multi-disciplinary decision group. The proposed approach takes into account the level of acceptance that a given alternative would have among professionals. It also takes into account criteria related to cost, quality of care and impact of care cover. This multicriteria approach is applied to four dialysis subsystems: patients infected with hepatitis C, infected with hepatitis B, acute and chronic; in all cases, the maintenance strategy obtained consists of applying corrective and preventive maintenance plus two reserve machines. The added value in decision-making practices from this research comes from: (i) integrating the use of Markov chains to obtain the alternatives to be assessed by a multicriteria methodology; (ii) proposing the use of MACBETH to make rational decisions on asset management in healthcare organizations; (iii) applying the multicriteria approach to select a set or combination of maintenance policies in four dialysis subsystems of a health care organization. In the multicriteria decision making approach proposed, economic criteria have been used, related to the quality of care which is desired for patients (availability), and the acceptance that each alternative would have considering the maintenance and healthcare resources which exist in the organization, with the inclusion of a

  3. Decision aiding in public policy generation and implementation: a multicriteria approach to evaluate territorial resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Franca Norese

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A decision aid process should be the result of an interaction between analysts, decision makers and stakeholders. Decision aiding is sometimes required when the problem situation is new and a formal decision system does not exist. Its role becomes that of facilitating the Intelligence phase of a decision process. In other situations, a criticism of certain policy making processes and their use of data, which may be available in institutional databases or are required as indicators for the decision process, motivates an intervention oriented towards structure knowledge and improvements of these processes. A preliminary study, which includes modelling and application of multi-criteria methods, can clarify a complex and new situation, propose a consistent approach for the later phases of a decision process or propose a different and more effective use of the data. A case study is proposed here to describe this methodological approach in relation to the disaster resilience of municipalities near the mbrone River, in Tuscany (Italy.

  4. People adopt optimal policies in simple decision-making, after practice and guidance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Nathan J; Brown, Scott D

    2017-04-01

    Organisms making repeated simple decisions are faced with a tradeoff between urgent and cautious strategies. While animals can adopt a statistically optimal policy for this tradeoff, findings about human decision-makers have been mixed. Some studies have shown that people can optimize this "speed-accuracy tradeoff", while others have identified a systematic bias towards excessive caution. These issues have driven theoretical development and spurred debate about the nature of human decision-making. We investigated a potential resolution to the debate, based on two factors that routinely differ between human and animal studies of decision-making: the effects of practice, and of longer-term feedback. Our study replicated the finding that most people, by default, are overly cautious. When given both practice and detailed feedback, people moved rapidly towards the optimal policy, with many participants reaching optimality with less than 1 h of practice. Our findings have theoretical implications for cognitive and neural models of simple decision-making, as well as methodological implications.

  5. Future Costs, Fixed Healthcare Budgets, and the Decision Rules of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Baal, Pieter; Meltzer, David; Brouwer, Werner

    2016-02-01

    Life-saving medical technologies result in additional demand for health care due to increased life expectancy. However, most economic evaluations do not include all medical costs that may result from this additional demand in health care and include only future costs of related illnesses. Although there has been much debate regarding the question to which extent future costs should be included from a societal perspective, the appropriate role of future medical costs in the widely adopted but more narrow healthcare perspective has been neglected. Using a theoretical model, we demonstrate that optimal decision rules for cost-effectiveness analyses assuming fixed healthcare budgets dictate that future costs of both related and unrelated medical care should be included. Practical relevance of including the costs of future unrelated medical care is illustrated using the example of transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Our findings suggest that guidelines should prescribe inclusion of these costs. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. The role of migration-specific and migration-relevant policies in migrant decision-making in transit

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuschminder - de Guerre, Katie; Koser, Khalid

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the role of migration-specific and migration-relevant policies in migrant decision-making factors for onwards migration or stay in Greece and Turkey. In this paper we distinguish migration-specific policies from migration-relevant policies in transit and destination countries,

  7. Renewable energy support policy in Spain : An analysis of the decision-making process (1994-2014)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leston, D.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the decision-making process behind the RE support policy will be explored in order to answer the following research questions: “why has the policy-making process been revised so many times?” and “how can such a drastic change on the RE support policy be explained?” The answer is found

  8. The Effect of Central Bank Policy Decisions on Stock Market Returns in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés A. Acuña

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the stock-market response to monetary policy decisions made by the Central Bank of Chile.  We use a methodology designed for the study of low frequency events and monthly data from September 2001 to December 2013 to estimate the effect of anticipated and unanticipated changes in the Chilean monetary policy interest rate on stock returns.  In contrast to the research findings in the literature for the U.S., we find no evidence that monetary surprises affect Chilean stock returns.

  9. Political and Economic Decisions and Competition – What is the Efficient Antimonopoly Policy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irakli Lekvinadze

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the influence of economic decisions which affect the antitrust and competition support policies. Many countries provide governmental initiatives for improving antirust legislation. There is an effort to develop efficient legislation, to define market boundaries, to identify dominating companies, and to prevent cartel development. A review of the literature has shown that refined legislation does not work. Qualified and non-politicized economic decisions are required to provide fair and equitable competition in the marketplace. The discussions of various researchers are profiled on the economic issues. This article analyzes The Republic of Georgia’s 20 year unique market experiences in Eastern Europe. Recommendations have been proposed to increase the effectiveness of an anti-monopoly policy. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

  10. Getting value today and incentivising for the future: Pharmaceutical development and healthcare policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasper Munk Johannesen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available To manage the challenge of limited healthcare resources and unlimited demand for healthcare, decision makers utilise a variety of demand side policies, such as health technology appraisals and international reference pricing to regulate price and utilisation. By controlling price and utilisation demand side policies determine the earnings potential, and hence the incentives to invest in research and development (R&D of new technologies. However, the impact of demand side policies on R&D incentives is seldom formally assessed.Based on the key assumption that intellectual property rights, i.e. patents, and expected rent are key drivers of pharmaceutical R&D, this work outlines a framework illustrating the link between demand side policies and pharmaceutical R&D incentives. By analysing how policies impact expected rent and consumer surplus, the framework is used to understand how commonly used demand side policies (including timing and length of reimbursement process, international reference pricing, parallel trade, and sequential adoption into clinical practice may influence R&D incentives.The analysis demonstrates that delayed reimbursement decisions as well as sequential adoption into clinical practise may in fact reduce both expected rent and consumer surplus. It is also demonstrated how international reference pricing is likely to increase consumer surplus at the expense of lower rent and thus lower R&D incentives.Although this work illustrates the importance of considering how demand side policies may impact long-term R&D incentives, it is important to note that the purpose has not been to prescribe which demand side policies should be utilised or how. Rather, the main contribution is to illustrate the need for a structured approach to the analysis of the complex, and at times highly politicised question of how demand side policies ultimately influence population health, both in the short and in the long term. 

  11. Asheville, North Carolina: Reducing Electricity Demand through Building Programs & Policies (City Energy: From Data to Decisions)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Office of Strategic Programs, Strategic Priorities and Impact Analysis Team

    2017-09-29

    This fact sheet "Asheville, North Carolina: Reducing Electricity Demand through Building Programs & Policies" explains how the City of Asheville used data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Cities Leading through Energy Analysis and Planning (Cities-LEAP) and the State and Local Energy Data (SLED) programs to inform its city energy planning. It is one of ten fact sheets in the "City Energy: From Data to Decisions" series.

  12. Exploring the science–policy interface on climate change: The role of the IPCC in informing local decision-making in the UK

    OpenAIRE

    Candice Howarth; James Painter

    2016-01-01

    Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) review of\\ud how to make its Assessment Reports (ARs) more accessible in the future, the research\\ud reported here assesses the extent to which the ARs are a useful tool through which scientific\\ud advice informs local decision-making on climate change in the United Kingdom. Results from\\ud interviews with local policy representatives and three workshops with UK academics, practitioners\\ud and local decision makers are present...

  13. Building a maintenance policy through a multi-criterion decision-making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faghihinia, Elahe; Mollaverdi, Naser

    2012-08-01

    A major competitive advantage of production and service systems is establishing a proper maintenance policy. Therefore, maintenance managers should make maintenance decisions that best fit their systems. Multi-criterion decision-making methods can take into account a number of aspects associated with the competitiveness factors of a system. This paper presents a multi-criterion decision-aided maintenance model with three criteria that have more influence on decision making: reliability, maintenance cost, and maintenance downtime. The Bayesian approach has been applied to confront maintenance failure data shortage. Therefore, the model seeks to make the best compromise between these three criteria and establish replacement intervals using Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE II), integrating the Bayesian approach with regard to the preference of the decision maker to the problem. Finally, using a numerical application, the model has been illustrated, and for a visual realization and an illustrative sensitivity analysis, PROMETHEE GAIA (the visual interactive module) has been used. Use of PROMETHEE II and PROMETHEE GAIA has been made with Decision Lab software. A sensitivity analysis has been made to verify the robustness of certain parameters of the model.

  14. Rapid review programs to support health care and policy decision making: a descriptive analysis of processes and methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polisena, Julie; Garritty, Chantelle; Kamel, Chris; Stevens, Adrienne; Abou-Setta, Ahmed M

    2015-03-14

    Health care decision makers often need to make decisions in limited timeframes and cannot await the completion of a full evidence review. Rapid reviews (RRs), utilizing streamlined systematic review methods, are increasingly being used to synthesize the evidence with a shorter turnaround time. Our primary objective was to describe the processes and methods used internationally to produce RRs. In addition, we sought to understand the underlying themes associated with these programs. We contacted representatives of international RR programs from a broad realm in health care to gather information about the methods and processes used to produce RRs. The responses were summarized narratively to understand the characteristics associated with their processes and methods. The summaries were compared and contrasted to highlight potential themes and trends related to the different RR programs. Twenty-nine international RR programs were included in our sample with a broad organizational representation from academia, government, research institutions, and non-for-profit organizations. Responses revealed that the main objectives for RRs were to inform decision making with regards to funding health care technologies, services and policy, and program development. Central themes that influenced the methods used by RR programs, and report type and dissemination were the imposed turnaround time to complete a report, resources available, the complexity and sensitivity of the research topics, and permission from the requestor. Our study confirmed that there is no standard approach to conduct RRs. Differences in processes and methods across programs may be the result of the novelty of RR methods versus other types of evidence syntheses, customization of RRs for various decision makers, and definition of 'rapid' by organizations, since it impacts both the timelines and the evidence synthesis methods. Future research should investigate the impact of current RR methods and reporting to

  15. Management challenges at the intersection of public policy environments and strategic decision making in public hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longest, Beaufort B

    2012-01-01

    Hospitals in the United States are heavily impacted by public policies that affect them. For example, Medicare and Medicaid programs account for more than half the revenue in most of the nation's almost 5,000 community hospitals, including the almost 1,100 public hospitals controlled by state and local governments (American Hospital Association, 2012). The public hospitals are especially closely aligned with and controlled by governmental entities compared with hospitals with other kinds of sponsorship. This article addresses the management challenges at the intersection of the strategic management of public hospitals and their public policy environments. Public hospitals are complicated entities designed not only to provide health services but also in many cases to play key roles in health-related research and education and to play important general economic development roles in their communities. The multi-faceted strategic decision making in these organizations is as heavily affected by their public policy environments as by their business, demographic, technological or other external environments. Effectively managing the intersection of their public policy environments and their strategic management is indeed vital for contemporary public hospitals. This article is intended to clarify certain aspects of this intersection through a description and model of the strategic activity in public hospitals and the connection between this activity and their external environments. Specific attention is focused on the concept of public policy environments and their features. Attention is also given to how managers can assess public policy environments and incorporate the results into strategic activities.

  16. Renewable electricity production costs-A framework to assist policy-makers' decisions on price support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinica, Valentina

    2011-01-01

    Despite recent progress, the production costs for renewable electricity remain above those for conventional power. Expectations of continuous reductions in production costs, typically underpin governments' policies for financial support. They often draw on the technology-focused versions of the Experience Curve model. This paper discusses how national-contextual factors also have a strong influence on production costs, such as geographic, infrastructural, institutional, and resource factors. As technologies mature, and as they reach significant levels of diffusion nationally, sustained increases in production costs might be recorded, due to these nationally contextual factors, poorly accounted for in policy-making decisions for price support. The paper suggests an analytical framework for a more comprehensive understanding of production costs. Based on this, it recommends that the evolution of specific cost levels and factors be monitored to locate 'sources of changes'. The paper also suggests policy instruments that governments may use to facilitate cost decreases, whenever possible. The application of the framework is illustrated for the diffusion of wind power in Spain during the past three decades. - Highlights: → Models, frameworks for policy-making on price support for renewable electricity production costs. → Policy instruments to help reduce production costs. → Limits to the influence of policies of production costs reductions.

  17. Economic policy uncertainty, credit risks and banks lending decisions: Evidence from Chinese commercial banks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qinwei Chi; Wenjing Li

    2017-01-01

    Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on banks’ credit risks and lending decisions. The results reveal significantly positive connections among EPU and non-performing loan ratios, loan concentrations and the normal loan migration rate. This indicates that EPU increases banks’ credit risks and negatively influences loan size, especially for joint-equity banks. Given the increasing credit risks generated by EPU, banks can improve operational performance by reducing loan sizes. Further research indicates that the effects of EPU on banks’ credit risks and lending decisions are moderated by the marketization level, with financial depth moderating the effect on banks’ credit risks and strengthening it on lending decisions.

  18. Policies for Promotion of Electric Vehicles and Factors Influencing Consumers’ Purchasing Decisions of Low Emission Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matjaz Knez

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently different studies of green transport have become interesting for policy makers,car manufacturers, customers and energy suppliers. Many stakeholders from the publicand private sectors are investing a lot of effort to identify consumer behaviour for futureimprovements in development of green products and effective strategies, which couldaccelerate the transition to sustainable future. This paper presents the effects of electricvehicle promotional policies and customer preferences about alternative fuel vehicles.This study has shown that the electric vehicle promotional policies adopted in Sloveniahave been unsuccessful, as the share of first-time registered electric vehicles in 2013 wasbelow 1%. For different segments of people whose opinions about low emission vehiclesdiffer, different measures must be adopted. When designing promotional policies focusmust be on the most relevant factors such as the total vehicle price and fuel economy.

  19. Tools to Help Society in Decision Making: Legal and Policy Trends. Proceedings of a Topical Session

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vari, Anna; Caddy, Joanne; ); Kotra, Janet P.; Pancher, Bertrand; Tromans, Stephan

    2009-01-01

    As part of its programme of work the OECD/NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence continues to investigate the theme of 'Tools and Processes to Help Society in Decision Making'. Following a presentation in June 2007 of environmental law and its implications for stakeholder involvement in decision making, the FSC decided to take a look at a variety of legal and policy issues. In particular, interest was expressed in seeing how law and policy may define which stakeholders must be consulted or engaged, and to consider when and whether that is helpful. A topical session was held on June 5, 2008 during the FSC's ninth regular meeting. Case studies were presented from the US, the UK, and France. An international survey of means for open and inclusive policy making was presented by the OECD Government directorate. The results of a questionnaire filled by FSC members served as the basis of the introductory presentation. Two sub-groups retired to discuss the material and a Rapporteur from each delivered feedback in plenary. These proceedings include a summary of the findings and discussions (Anna Vari), and the slides (some with accompanying text) provided for each case study: 1 - Open and Inclusive Policy Making: Emerging Practice in OECD Countries (Joanne Caddy); 2 - Deciding Whether to Authorized Construction at Yucca Mountain Explaining NRC's Process (Janet P. Kotra); 3 - Rights and Obligations under International Conventions (Stephan Tromans); 4 - Setting Criteria for the Representativeness of NGO/CSOs: Report on Hearings at the Request of France's Prime Minister (Bertrand Pancher)

  20. Governing irrationality, or a more than rational government? Reflections on the rescientisation of decision making in British public policy

    OpenAIRE

    Mark Whitehead; Rhys Jones; Jessica Pykett

    2011-01-01

    It appears that recent debates within human geography, and the broader social sciences, concerning the more-than-rational constitution of human decision making are now being paralleled by changes in the ways in which public policy makers are conceiving of and addressing human behaviour. This paper focuses on the rise of so-called Behaviour Change policies in public policy in the UK. Behaviour Change policies draw on the behavioural insights being developed within the neurosciences, behavioura...

  1. Emerging Adulthood among Palestinian Minority in Israel: The Relation between Perceived Career Barriers, Future Orientation and Career Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahajna, Sami

    2017-01-01

    This study examines the relation between perceived career barriers, future orientation and career decisions among young Palestinian-Israeli youth. The study employs a theoretical model that links perceived career barriers and career decisions via variables of future orientation. Three hundred eighty-eight young Palestinian-Israeli women (73.20%)…

  2. Analysing pseudoephedrine/methamphetamine policy options in Australia using multi-criteria decision modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Matthew; Wong, Gabriel T W; Ransley, Janet; Smith, Christine

    2016-06-01

    In this paper we capture and synthesize the unique knowledge of experts so that choices regarding policy measures to address methamphetamine consumption and dependency in Australia can be strengthened. We examine perceptions of the: (1) influence of underlying factors that impact on the methamphetamine problem; (2) importance of various models of intervention that have the potential to affect the success of policies; and (3) efficacy of alternative pseudoephedrine policy options. We adopt a multi-criteria decision model to unpack factors that affect decisions made by experts and examine potential variations on weight/preference among groups. Seventy experts from five groups (i.e. academia (18.6%), government and policy (27.1%), health (18.6%), pharmaceutical (17.1%) and police (18.6%)) in Australia participated in the survey. Social characteristics are considered the most important underlying factor, prevention the most effective strategy and Project STOP the most preferred policy option with respect to reducing methamphetamine consumption and dependency in Australia. One-way repeated ANOVAs indicate a statistically significant difference with regards to the influence of underlying factors (F(2.3, 144.5)=11.256, pmethamphetamine consumption and dependency. Most experts support the use of preventative mechanisms to inhibit drug initiation and delayed drug uptake. Compared to other policies, Project STOP (which aims to disrupt the initial diversion of pseudoephedrine) appears to be a more preferable preventative mechanism to control the production and subsequent sale and use of methamphetamine. This regulatory civil law lever engages third parties in controlling drug-related crime. The literature supports third-party partnerships as it engages experts who have knowledge and expertise with respect to prevention and harm minimization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. The present value of the future, or individual decisions behind superannuation investments

    OpenAIRE

    Attila Farmasi; Tibor Tatay

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades, there has been much debate on how a state can establish a pension system that takes into consideration the balance of the general government. In addition to the condition of an equilibrium, social security and the stability of the value of pensions should also be ensured. The Hungarian regulation, however, has compelled not only economic politicians, but also future pensioners make their choice several times. The aim of this paper is to study such choices and decisions. The...

  4. Linking brain electrical signals elicited by current outcomes with future risk decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dandan eZhang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The experience of current outcomes influences future decisions in various ways. The neural mechanism of this phenomenon may help to clarify the determinants of decision-making. In this study, thirty-nine young adults finished a risky gambling task by choosing between a high- and a low-risk option in each trial during electroencephalographic data collection. We found that risk-taking strategies significantly modulated mean amplitudes of the event-related potential (ERP component P3, particularly at the central scalp. The event-related spectral perturbation and the inter-trial coherence measurements of the independent component analysis (ICA data indicated that the stay vs. switch electrophysiological difference associated with subsequent decision-making was mainly due to fronto-central theta and left/right mu independent components. Event-related cross-coherence results suggested that the neural information of action monitoring and updating emerged in the fronto-central cortex and propagated to sensorimotor area for further behavior adjustment. Based on these findings of ERP and event-related oscillation (ERO measures, we proposed a neural model of the influence of current outcomes on future decisions.

  5. Stem cell tourism and future stem cell tourists: policy and ethical implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einsiedel, Edna F; Adamson, Hannah

    2012-04-01

    Stem cell tourism is a small but growing part of the thriving global medical tourism marketplace. Much stem cell research remains at the experimental stage, with clinical trials still uncommon. However, there are over 700 clinics estimated to be operating in mostly developing countries--from Costa Rica and Argentina to China, India and Russia--that have lured many patients, mostly from industrialized countries, driven by desperation and hope, which in turn continue to fuel the growth of such tourism. While much research has focused on such dimensions as the promotions that allow such businesses to make their services known, media coverage, some patient research, and regulatory conditions for developing country clinics, little attention has been paid to the non-affected members of the general population, the future potential users of such services. This empirical study based on five focus group discussions with a diverse group of healthy adults in a Canadian city, explored participant views of patients who use stem cell tourism services, the likelihood they would avail themselves of such services if they were to suffer similar illnesses, and the conditions under which they might do so, and the impact that admonitions and advice from international expert bodies might have on their decisions. Our findings suggest that these healthy adults are sympathetic to the drivers of hope and desperation, and, despite cautions about research limitations, may seek such treatments themselves under similar conditions. These findings are discussed in the context of the policy and ethical issues raised by this form of medical tourism. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  6. Towards the sustainable energy system. The future of the transition policy for energy and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruggink, J.J.C.

    2006-11-01

    Inaugural speech at the occasion of the acceptance of the office for Energy Transition and Sustainable Development at the Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences of the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam, Netherlands, November 21, 2006. The transition policy in the Netherlands towards a sustainable energy supply system succeeded in creating a basis in the Dutch society, although at the cost of making clear choices with regard to concrete projects, new policy tools and financial means. In order to accelerate those choices the Dutch government needs to take decisive measures [nl

  7. Reducing the Potential for Future Financial Crises: A Framework for Macro-Prudential Policy in Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Paul Jenkins; Gordon Thiessen

    2012-01-01

    Canada needs a policy framework and new governance structure beyond what is in place to reduce the potential for future financial crises. The authors make the case for establishing a formal committee with a mandate to identify potential systemic risks and to act promptly before they materialize. While Canada's system of regulating and supervising financial institutions might hold up as a model of good performance, changes can and should be made, say Jenkins and Thiessen. Future crises undoubt...

  8. Designing Observation and Modeling Systems to Inform Decisions and Policies on Freshwater Objectives in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baisden, W. T.; Ellis, T.; Rissman, C.; Moore, C.; Matthews, A.

    2016-12-01

    Declines in New Zealand's freshwater quality have led to legislation - the 2014 National Policy Statement on Freshwater Management (NPS-FM) - which requires regional governments to set "objectives" and design policies accordingly. In most regions, increases in freshwater contaminants are derived largely from intensifying agriculture and come as nitrogen, phosphorous or sediment, or a combination thereof. Here, the development and application of N and O isotopes as natural tracers for nitrate is examined as a case study, in the context of a wider hierarchy of observations such as N concentrations, flow and broader hydrochemistry used for NPS-FM implementation. The analysis of N and O isotopes in nitrate provides specific information on sources and removal processes that cannot be obtained by other measurements. Yet, despite considerable development of the technical methodology and environment-specific interpretation, application of measurements has faced barriers. Many may be typical of science in a small advanced nation with a population of 4.5 million, but others are unique due to New Zealand's limited rural population base and large diversity in physical geography, as well as a unique economic reliance on highly productive pastoral agricultural systems. Seventeen different regional governments are empowered to regulate in ways consistent with local consultation and democracy within their catchment boundaries, but with limited resources to align highly technical observational data to policies and decisions, as well as supporting models. The resulting gaps in communication and technical capability combine with a diversity of approaches to pose both challenges and opportunities for development and application of hierarchical observation systems. Success appears to lie in ensuring decision frameworks can be `mapped', so that different frameworks can be compared, and the benefits of sophisticated observations understood directly in relation to influence on regional

  9. CEOS Contributions to Informing Energy Management and Policy Decision Making Using Space-Based Earth Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckman, Richard S.

    2009-01-01

    Earth observations are playing an increasingly significant role in informing decision making in the energy sector. In renewable energy applications, space-based observations now routinely augment sparse ground-based observations used as input for renewable energy resource assessment applications. As one of the nine Group on Earth Observations (GEO) societal benefit areas, the enhancement of management and policy decision making in the energy sector is receiving attention in activities conducted by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). CEOS has become the "space arm" for the implementation of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) vision. It is directly supporting the space-based, near-term tasks articulated in the GEO three-year work plan. This paper describes a coordinated program of demonstration projects conducted by CEOS member agencies and partners to utilize Earth observations to enhance energy management end-user decision support systems. I discuss the importance of engagement with stakeholders and understanding their decision support needs in successfully increasing the uptake of Earth observation products for societal benefit. Several case studies are presented, demonstrating the importance of providing data sets in formats and units familiar and immediately usable by decision makers. These projects show the utility of Earth observations to enhance renewable energy resource assessment in the developing world, forecast space-weather impacts on the power grid, and improve energy efficiency in the built environment.

  10. CEOS contributions to informing energy management and policy decision making using space-based Earth observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eckman, Richard S.; Stackhouse, Paul W.

    2012-01-01

    Earth observations are playing an increasingly significant role in informing decision making in the energy sector. In renewable energy applications, space-based observations now routinely augment sparse ground-based observations used as input for renewable energy resource assessment applications. As one of the nine Group on Earth Observations (GEO) societal benefit areas, the enhancement of management and policy decision making in the energy sector is receiving attention in activities conducted by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). CEOS has become the “space arm” for the implementation of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) vision. It is directly supporting the space-based, near-term tasks articulated in the GEO three-year work plan. This paper describes a coordinated program of demonstration projects conducted by CEOS member agencies and partners to utilize Earth observations to enhance energy management end-user decision support systems. We discuss the importance of engagement with stakeholders and understanding their decision support needs in successfully increasing the uptake of Earth observation products for societal benefit. Several case studies are presented, demonstrating the importance of providing data sets in formats and units familiar and immediately usable by decision makers. These projects show the utility of Earth observations to enhance renewable energy resource assessment in the developing world, forecast space weather impacts on the power grid, and improve energy efficiency in the built environment.

  11. Design of coordinated energy and environmental policies: use of multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greening, L.A.; Bernow, Steve

    2004-01-01

    Conventional economic modeling tools that depend upon one criterion to select among possible alternatives for inclusion in an energy or environmental policy have limitations. Formulation of both sets of policies involves large numbers of stakeholders with differing views and preferences. Those views and preferences cannot always be determined in advance or with certainty since many of the attributes of these policy alternatives are non-market valued. The use of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods in an integrated assessment (IA) framework offers a far better alternative to cost/benefit and similar methods. To facilitate understanding of MCDM methods, we offer a typology for this broad class of models, suggest some of the types of problems that may be analyzed with these methods, and recommend the implementation of several MCDM methods in currently evolving IA frameworks. Depending upon the choice of method from this family of methods, a wide range of attributes associated with multi-pollutant reduction and energy system development strategies, and a diversity of stakeholder preferences may be incorporated into the analysis. The resulting policy space can then provide a basis for comparison and selection of policy alternatives in a political or negotiated process

  12. Future nuclear energy policy based on the Broad Outline of Nuclear Energy Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saito, Shinzo

    2006-01-01

    The Broad Outline of Nuclear Energy Policy for about ten years was determined by the Cabinet meeting of Japan. Nuclear power plant safety and regulation, nuclear waste management, nuclear power production and nuclear power research and development were discussed. It determined that 3 nuclear power plants, which are building, should be built, and about 10 plants will be built to product 30 to 40 % of Japan electricity generation after 2030. FBR will be operated until 2050. The nuclear fuel cycle system will be used continuously. The nuclear power plant safety and nuclear waste management are so important for the nuclear industry that these subjects were discussed in detail. In order to understand and use the quantum beam technology, the advanced institutions and equipments and network among scientists, industry and people should be planed and practically used. (S.Y.)

  13. Clinical decision making in cancer care: a review of current and future roles of patient age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tranvåg, Eirik Joakim; Norheim, Ole Frithjof; Ottersen, Trygve

    2018-05-09

    , irrespective of one's normative viewpoint. This overview also provides a starting point for future discussions on the appropriate role of age in cancer care decision making, which we see as crucial for harnessing the full potential of personalized medicine.

  14. Prospect of Future as a Support to Search for Information for Business Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson Daishiro Yoshida

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The use of future studies methodologies to provide information for decision making has been studied in this research. The objectives of the research are to identify the association of methods to different information categories, the importance of future studies, the frequency of use, the time horizon and users perceived satisfaction with the results. The research is implemented through a mixed-methods methodology, with a survey and case studies. Combined results have been analyzed in a complementary approach. Results fromthe sample indicate that there is an association of methods with information categories. Evaluation of the importance of future studies is high and depends on the decision type to be strategic or tactical,it also influences the frequency of use. Time horizon is associated to methods. The most used methods are the ones with high personal interaction, on the other hand, objective methods, e.g. mathematical techniques, are not among the most used. In the case studies results, methods based on judgment and opinion with high personal interaction are the most used. There were concerns about the need for more structure to deal with future studies in the company and also about its practice in accordance with methodological recommendations.

  15. The process of construction of evidence: An analysis of the use of indicators in two decisions of innovation policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boavida, N.; Moniz, A.; Laranja, M.

    2016-07-01

    Despite increasing calls for evidence-based policies, knowledge about the practical use of evidences remains limited. This paper studies the process of construction of evidences in decisions of innovation policy to understand how evidences were used. It analysis the use of indicators and other evidences through interviews conducted to inquire about the two decisions: an electric mobility policy and a nanotechnology laboratory. Results show indicators and other evidences were brought to decision processes according to their availability and capacity to support the different interests of the actors and the stakeholders. Their role was influenced by the particular situation of the decision makers. More importantly, the use of persuasive analytical evidences appears to be related with the adversity of the policy context. In addition, research suggests that indicators are one tool among others to foster innovation decisions. In fact, the relatively minor instrumental role of indicators suggests that indicators are mostly a complementary instrument of decision. When used relevantly, indicators can offer support to a decision. But there are other significant influences that need to be taken into account to understand the specific role indicators and other evidences play, such as the social relations of the decision makers and their emotional-intuitive decisions. (Author)

  16. A Framework for a Future Swedish Policy for Research and Development in Information Science and Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lofstrom, Mats; And Others

    Prepared to stimulate discussion on how to design a Swedish policy in information science and technology, this report presents the state-of-the-art of this field as it pertains to the dissemination of scientific information and outlines a program for future research and development. The review portion examines systems for current information…

  17. Impacts of imports, government policy and technology on future natural gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allison, E.

    2009-01-01

    This presentation discussed the impacts of imports, government policy and technology on future natural gas supply. Specifically, it discussed projections of natural gas supply and demand; the potential impact of imports on United States natural gas supply; the potential impacts of government policy on natural gas supply and demand; and the impact of technological innovations on natural gas supply such as coalbed methane and methane hydrate. Specific government policies that were examined included the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009; the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009; and the Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act of 2009. It was concluded that the United States demand for natural gas will expand and that the impact of pending clean energy legislation is unclear. In addition, each potential future resource will face constraints and new resources may come on line in the next 20 years. figs.

  18. Probabilistic Decision Tools for Determining Impacts of Agricultural Development Policy on Household Nutrition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitney, Cory W.; Lanzanova, Denis; Muchiri, Caroline; Shepherd, Keith D.; Rosenstock, Todd S.; Krawinkel, Michael; Tabuti, John R. S.; Luedeling, Eike

    2018-03-01

    Governments around the world have agreed to end hunger and food insecurity and to improve global nutrition, largely through changes to agriculture and food systems. However, they are faced with a lot of uncertainty when making policy decisions, since any agricultural changes will influence social and biophysical systems, which could yield either positive or negative nutrition outcomes. We outline a holistic probability modeling approach with Bayesian Network (BN) models for nutritional impacts resulting from agricultural development policy. The approach includes the elicitation of expert knowledge for impact model development, including sensitivity analysis and value of information calculations. It aims at a generalizable methodology that can be applied in a wide range of contexts. To showcase this approach, we develop an impact model of Vision 2040, Uganda's development strategy, which, among other objectives, seeks to transform the country's agricultural landscape from traditional systems to large-scale commercial agriculture. Model results suggest that Vision 2040 is likely to have negative outcomes for the rural livelihoods it intends to support; it may have no appreciable influence on household hunger but, by influencing preferences for and access to quality nutritional foods, may increase the prevalence of micronutrient deficiency. The results highlight the trade-offs that must be negotiated when making decisions regarding agriculture for nutrition, and the capacity of BNs to make these trade-offs explicit. The work illustrates the value of BNs for supporting evidence-based agricultural development decisions.

  19. Health and Aging Policy Fellows Program: Shaping a Healthy Future for Older Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pincus, Harold Alan; Pike, Kathleen M; Spaeth-Rublee, Brigitta; Elinson, Lynn

    2017-09-01

    As the size of the elderly population increases, so do the challenges of and barriers to high-quality, affordable health care. The Health and Aging Policy Fellows (HAPF) Program is designed to provide health and aging professionals with the skills and experience to help lead the effort in reducing these barriers and shaping a healthy and productive future for older Americans. Since its inception in 2008, the program has affected not only the fellows who participate, but also the field of health and aging policy. Work needs to be done to sustain this program so that more fellows can participate and sound policies for the elderly population can continue to be shaped and improved. This report describes the HAPF Program, including its background (rationale, description, partners, progress, effect), lessons learned, challenges and solutions, and policy implications. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  20. Women's perspectives on the ethical implications of non-invasive prenatal testing: a qualitative analysis to inform health policy decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanstone, Meredith; Cernat, Alexandra; Nisker, Jeff; Schwartz, Lisa

    2018-04-16

    Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing (NIPT) is a technology which provides information about fetal genetic characteristics (including sex) very early in pregnancy by examining fetal DNA obtained from a sample of maternal blood. NIPT is a morally complex technology that has advanced quickly to market with a strong push from industry developers, leaving many areas of uncertainty still to be resolved, and creating a strong need for health policy that reflects women's social and ethical values. We approach the need for ethical policy-making by studying the use of NIPT and emerging policy in the province of Ontario, Canada. Using an adapted version of constructivist grounded theory, we conducted interviews with 38 women who have had personal experiences with NIPT. We used an iterative process of data collection and analysis and a staged coding strategy to conduct a descriptive analysis of ethics issues identified implicitly and explicitly by women who have been affected by this technology. The findings of this paper focus on current ethical issues for women seeking NIPT, including place in the prenatal pathway, health care provider counselling about the test, industry influence on the diffusion of NIPT, consequences of availability of test results. Other issues gain relevance in the context of future policy decisions regarding NIPT, including funding of NIPT and principles that may govern the expansion of the scope of NIPT. These findings are not an exhaustive list of all the potential ethical issues related to NIPT, but rather a representation of the issues which concern women who have personal experience with this test. Women who have had personal experience with NIPT have concerns and priorities which sometimes contrast dramatically with the theoretical ethics literature. These findings suggest the importance of engaging patients in ethical deliberation about morally complex technologies, and point to the need for more deliberative patient engagement work in this area.

  1. A new approach to measure speculation in the oil futures market and some policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, Leo H.; Nguyen, Chi M.; Chan, Kam C.

    2015-01-01

    We propose using a new relative measure, the speculative ratio, defined as trading volume divided by open interest, to gauge speculative activity in the oil futures market. We apply the speculative ratio to examine the relation between basis and speculative activity in the oil futures market before and after the financialization of the oil market in 2003. Our finding suggests that the oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in the post-financialization period. Our finding carries several practical policy implications, as follows: (1) both the commodity exchange and the regulator should design regulations and trading policies that improve basis risk; (2) on the commodity exchange side, new policies on margin requirements and position limits for speculators should be implemented; (3) margin requirements should be based on the level of basis risk; (4) regulators should speed up implementation of the position limit rule in the Dodd–Frank Act; and (5) stronger and more meaningful enforcement actions by regulators are required to punish and deter market manipulators. - Highlights: • Use a new speculative ratio to gauge speculative activities in oil futures market. • Examine the relation between basis and speculative activities. • The new speculative ratio also works well in the post-2008 oil bubble period. • Oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in post-financialization in 2003.

  2. The effect of political cycles on power investment decisions: Expectations over the repeal and reinstatement of carbon policy mechanisms in Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ShahNazari, Mahdi; McHugh, Adam; Maybee, Bryan; Whale, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Effect of political cycles quantified in power generation investments. • Expected repeal and reinstatement of carbon policy modelled dynamically. • A survey of experts informed the decision making model. • Expectations over reinstatement of policy dampens the effect of expected repeal. - Abstract: Political uncertainty over global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy is likely to defer investment in cleaner technologies. It may also incentivise short-lived, high-cost interim investments while businesses wait for the uncertainty to subside. The range of possible policy responses to the issue has created uncertainty over the future of national mitigation pathways. Given that the electricity sector, globally, is a major emitter of GHGs, this represents a systematic risk to investment in electricity generation assets. This paper uses a real options analysis framework informed by a survey of experts conducted in Australia – used as a proxy to model the degree of the uncertainty – to investigate the optimal timing for investment in the conversion of a coal plant to a combined cycle gas turbine plant using the American-style option valuation method. The effect of market and political uncertainty is studied for the Clean Energy Act 2011 in Australia. Political uncertainty is addressed bi-modally in terms of: (1) uncertainty over the repeal of the carbon pricing policy, and (2) if it is repealed, uncertainty over the reinstatement of the policy, to represent the effect of electoral cycles and the possibility of more stringent future global mitigation efforts. Results of the analysis show that although political uncertainty with respect to GHG mitigation policy may delay investment in the conversion of the coal plant, expectations over the reinstatement of the carbon pricing reduces the amount of option premium to defer the conversion decision

  3. Lessons learned from applying external input to DOE policy decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imholz, R.M.; Hindman, T.B. Jr.; Brubaker, D.M.

    1990-01-01

    Our nation has entered an era in which the public is demanding clean up and restoration of its environment, understandable information, and participation in decision making. The US Department of Energy's (DOE's) culture, which grew out of the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) culture of classification, compartmentalization, and strict-need-to-know dissemination of information, was in direct conflict with this demand for public involvement. The DOE recognized this and committed to changing their culture into one of openness and public involvement in decision making and policy direction. This paper reports that as a result, DOE created a number of external review groups, one of them being the State and Tribal Government Working Group (STGWG). The STGWG was created to review the first Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Five-Year Plan. The Five-Year Plan establishes an agenda for compliance and cleanup of DOE installations against which progress can be measured

  4. Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between...... benefited from general advances in health economic modelling and some improvements in reporting were noted. However, the low level of agreement between studies in model structures and assumptions, and difficulty in justifying these (convergent validity), remain a threat to the credibility of health economic...... models. Decision-makers should not accept the results of a modelling study if the methods are not fully transparent and justified. Modellers should, whenever relevant, supplement a primary report of results with a technical report detailing and discussing the methodological choices made....

  5. [Social participation in mental health: space of construction of citizenship, policy formulation and decision making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimarães, José Maria Ximenes; Jorge, Maria Salete Bessa; Maia, Regina Claudia Furtado; de Oliveira, Lucia Conde; Morais, Ana Patrícia Pereira; Lima, Marcos Paulo de Oliveira; Assis, Marluce Maria Araújo; dos Santos, Adriano Maia

    2010-07-01

    The article approaches the comprehension of professionals that act in the mental health area about the movement of construction of social participation in the health system of Fortaleza, Ceará State. The methodology adopted is based upon qualitative approach. The study was developed with semi-structured interviews with 17 mental health professionals of the city above mentioned. The empirical data was analyzed through the technique of thematic content analysis, where it was identified three cores of analysis: social participation as space of citizenship and policy formulation; oriented to attention of collective needs; and decision taking. The study reveals that social participation represents a possibility of amplifying X the relations between the Civil Society and the State, which makes possible the social intervention in proposals of the health policies. It is highlighted the right to health linked to the consolidation of democracy in the attention to the needs and collective edification.

  6. Decision support tool to evaluate alternative policies regulating wind integration into autonomous energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zouros, N.; Contaxis, G.C.; Kabouris, J.

    2005-01-01

    Integration of wind power into autonomous electricity systems strongly depends on the specific technical characteristics of these systems; the regulations applied should take into account physical system constraints. Introduction of market rules makes the issue even more complicated since the interests of the market participants often conflict each other. In this paper, an integrated tool for the comparative assessment of alternative regulatory policies is presented along with a methodology for decision-making, based on alternative scenarios analysis. The social welfare concept is followed instead of the traditional Least Cost Planning

  7. The power of science economic research and European decision-making : the case of energy and environment policies

    CERN Document Server

    Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    This book highlights the interaction between science and politics and between research in economics and European Union policy-making. It focuses on the use of Quantitative tools, Top-down and Bottom-up models in up-stream European decision-making process through five EU policy case studies: energy taxation, climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and internalisation of external costs.

  8. Iran`s petroleum policy: Current trends and the future outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pezeshki, S.; Fesharaki, F.

    1994-12-01

    The Iranian economy and political situation have undergone radical changes since the 1979 Islamic revolution. The excesses of the early years of the revolution have gradually given way to moderation and a more pragmatic economic policy--based on the principles of the free market. The petroleum policy, as a subset of the economic policies, has been somewhat affected by the political and economic developments in Iran. The petroleum policy has changed from a position of no foreign participation to a position that includes a desire for foreign participation, the text of a model contract, and an attempt to introduce new technologies in the upstream sector. This report provides an overview of the key issues facing the Iranian oil industry and the economic context in which the oil industry is operating in Iran. It describes the evolution of policies meant to move the oil industry toward the free market; it discusses Iran`s oil trading partners, the outlook for refining and project investments, and current and likely future developments in the natural gas and petrochemical sectors. In short, the report provides an up-to-date assessment of the Iranian petroleum sector and its likely evolution in the future.

  9. The impact of negative childbirth experience on future reproductive decisions: A quantitative systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shorey, Shefaly; Yang, Yen Yen; Ang, Emily

    2018-06-01

    The aim of this study was to systematically retrieve, critique and synthesize available evidence regarding the association between negative childbirth experiences and future reproductive decisions. A child's birth is often a joyous event; however, there is a proportion of women who undergo negative childbirth experiences that have long-term implications on their reproductive decisions. A systematic review of quantitative studies was undertaken using Joanna Briggs Institute's methods. A search was carried out in CINAHL Plus with Full Text, Embase, PsycINFO, PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science from January 1996 - July 2016. Studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria were assessed by two independent reviewers using the Joanna Briggs Institute's Critical Appraisal Tools. Data were extracted under subheadings adapted from the institute's data extraction forms. Twelve studies, which examined either one or more influences of negative childbirth experiences, were identified. The included studies were either cohort or cross-sectional designs. Five studies observed positive associations between prior negative childbirth experiences and decisions to not have another child, three studies found positive associations between negative childbirth experiences and decisions to delay a subsequent birth and six studies concluded positive associations between negative childbirth experiences and maternal requests for caesarean section in subsequent pregnancies. To receive a holistic understanding on negative childbirth experiences, a suitable definition and validated measuring tools should be used to understand this phenomenon. Future studies or reviews should include a qualitative component and/or the exploration of specific factors such as cultural and regional differences that influence childbirth experiences. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Divestment prevails over the green paradox when anticipating strong future climate policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; McGlade, Christophe; Hilaire, Jérôme; Ekins, Paul

    2018-01-01

    Fossil fuel market dynamics will have a significant impact on the effectiveness of climate policies1. Both fossil fuel owners and investors in fossil fuel infrastructure are sensitive to climate policies that threaten their natural resource endowments and production capacities2-4, which will consequently affect their near-term behaviour. Although weak in near-term policy commitments5,6, the Paris Agreement on climate7 signalled strong ambitions in climate change stabilization. Many studies emphasize that the 2 °C target can still be achieved even if strong climate policies are delayed until 20308-10. However, sudden implementation will have severe consequences for fossil fuel markets and beyond and these studies ignore the anticipation effects of owners and investors. Here we use two energy-economy models to study the collective influence of the two central but opposing anticipation arguments, the green paradox11 and the divestment effect12, which have, to date, been discussed only separately. For a wide range of future climate policies, we find that anticipation effects, on balance, reduce CO2 emissions during the implementation lag. This is because of strong divestment in coal power plants starting ten years ahead of policy implementation. The green paradox effect is identified, but is small under reasonable assumptions.

  11. Impact of the decision-making environment on policy responses to road worker fatality in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pankratz, Curt J

    2018-01-22

    Fatal accidents often lead to policy changes. However, the existing decision-making environment is critical to policy responses. This study compares the policy responses to similar events in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The key question explores the extent to which the policy decisions in each province differ despite the similarity of the events. Key documents were examined. Provincial court rulings, workplace health & safety incident investigation reports, court transcripts and police reports were used to compare resulting policy changes as well as the socio-political and economic decision-making context. Relevant clauses in resulting legislation were also compared to assess the specific changes that were made in each province. In each province, a young, female highway construction worker was killed. However, the provinces responded in very different ways. In Saskatchewan, the Premier called for recommendations to improve worker safety, initiating an in-depth governmental study and the development of a broad safety strategy. In Manitoba, political and social pressures shifted the decision-making environment and contributed to the rushed passing of a bill focused on traffic fine increases that resulted in record-breaking traffic fine revenue while failing to include broader safety measures. Different decision-making contexts can lead to vastly different policy outcomes even when responding to very similar events. Key differences included time constraints, access to information and the nature of the political process invoked.

  12. Forest Science and forest policy in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East: Building Bridges to a sustainable future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard W. Guldin; Niels Elers Koch; John A. Parrotta; Christian Gamborg; Bo J. Thorsen

    2004-01-01

    Making forest policies that help bridge from the current situation to a sustainable future requires sound scientific information. Too often, scientific information is available, yet policy makers do not use it. At a workshop in Denmark, attendees reviewed case studies where forest science influenced forest policies and identified six major reasons for success. Three...

  13. Analysis of the decision-support function of policy assessment in real-world policy making in the field of poverty and social inequalities. Case study on migrant integration policies in the Brussels-Capital Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feyaerts, Gille; Deguerry, Murielle; Deboosere, Patrick; De Spiegelaere, Myriam

    2017-01-01

    Despite its high potential to support decision-making, the role of policy assessment in real-world policy making in the field of poverty and social inequalities remains largely questioned. In this study, we analyse policy assessment's role in a context of real-world policymaking, by means of a case study on a legislative proposal on integration policy for immigrant newcomers in the Brussels-Capital Region, for which we evaluate the potential effects on poverty and social inequalities. We first analyse the policy process surrounding the policy proposal – a process that is often treated as a black box within policy assessment research. Understanding the factors that influence and determine the decision-making process, enables us to gain insight into the potential decision-support function(s). Second, we develop an approach to policy assessment that aims to fully exploit its potential to contribute to the functions of both instrumental and conceptual learning. For this purpose, we propose to introduce the approach of realist evaluation and to focus on evaluating the underlying policy intervention theory from the perspective of poverty and social inequalities. Finally, we illustrate this new approach and its added value by applying it to the legislative proposal on integration policy and analyse its contribution to policy-oriented learning. - Highlights: •The field of policy assessment should draw on insights from policy studies. •We unpacked the policymaking black-box to identify the mechanisms of policy change. •The policy process is driven by an interaction of ideas, interests and institutions. •Policy assessment's potential lies in both instrumental and conceptual learning. •We propose to integrate realist evaluation's logic of inquiry within policy assessment.

  14. Decision Network for Blue Green Solutions to Influence Policy Impact Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mijic, A.; Theodoropoulos, G.; El Hattab, M. H.; Brown, K.

    2017-12-01

    Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SuDS) deliver ecosystems services that can potentially yield multiple benefits to the urban environment. These benefits can be achieved through optimising SUDS' integration with the local environment and water resources, creating so-called Blue Green Solutions (BGS). The BGS paradigm, however, presents several challenges, in particular quantifying the benefits and creating the scientific evidence-base that can persuade high-level decision-makers and stakeholders to implement BGS at large scale. This work presents the development of the easily implemented and tailored-made approach that allows a robust assessment of the BGS co-benefits, and can influence the types of information that are included in policy impact assessments. The Analytic Network Process approach is used to synthesise the available evidence on the co-benefits of the BGS. The approach enables mapping the interactions between individual BGS selection criteria, and creates a platform to assess the synergetic benefits that arise from components interactions. By working with Government departments and other public and private sector stakeholders, this work has produced a simple decision criteria-based network that will enable the co-benefits and trade-offs of BGS to be quantified and integrated into UK policy appraisals.

  15. Decaying relevance of clinical data towards future decisions in data-driven inpatient clinical order sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jonathan H; Alagappan, Muthuraman; Goldstein, Mary K; Asch, Steven M; Altman, Russ B

    2017-06-01

    Determine how varying longitudinal historical training data can impact prediction of future clinical decisions. Estimate the "decay rate" of clinical data source relevance. We trained a clinical order recommender system, analogous to Netflix or Amazon's "Customers who bought A also bought B..." product recommenders, based on a tertiary academic hospital's structured electronic health record data. We used this system to predict future (2013) admission orders based on different subsets of historical training data (2009 through 2012), relative to existing human-authored order sets. Predicting future (2013) inpatient orders is more accurate with models trained on just one month of recent (2012) data than with 12 months of older (2009) data (ROC AUC 0.91 vs. 0.88, precision 27% vs. 22%, recall 52% vs. 43%, all P<10 -10 ). Algorithmically learned models from even the older (2009) data was still more effective than existing human-authored order sets (ROC AUC 0.81, precision 16% recall 35%). Training with more longitudinal data (2009-2012) was no better than using only the most recent (2012) data, unless applying a decaying weighting scheme with a "half-life" of data relevance about 4 months. Clinical practice patterns (automatically) learned from electronic health record data can vary substantially across years. Gold standards for clinical decision support are elusive moving targets, reinforcing the need for automated methods that can adapt to evolving information. Prioritizing small amounts of recent data is more effective than using larger amounts of older data towards future clinical predictions. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Research on the margin of futures markets and the policy spillover effect

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Difang Wan; Yang Yang; Dong Fang; Guang Yang

    2011-01-01

    Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the change of margin in Chinese futures markets has policy spillover effects.Design/methodology/approach-The paper constructs a model based on Harzmark and on Chng,taking Chinese futures markets status quo as a single species and restrictions on foreign investment into consideration,introduces the assumptions of spillover effect of speculators,then obtains investor's demand function.Subsequently,the effects of Shanghai Futures Exchange's 11 instances of margin changing are analyzed.Findings-The paper finds that in the Chinese futures market,margin changing has impact on the open interest (OI) and the speculator spillover effect is validated.Research limitations/implications-The irrational behavior of investors in markets is not taken into account in the model and data about spillover speculators were not directly available.Originality/value-The paper usefully analyzes the effects of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's 11 instances of margin changing from 2000 to 2007 and examines the actual effects of margin-changing policy,in the views of OI,trading volume and the externality,the results showing that margin changing has impact on investor structure and validates the existence of the assumed speculator spillover effect.

  17. Health behind bars: can exploring the history of prison health systems impact future policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weston, Kathryn M; McCarthy, Louella R; Meyering, Isobelle Barrett; Hampton, Stephen; Mackinnon, Tobias

    2018-02-01

    The value of history is, indeed, not scientific but moral … it prepares us to live more humanely in the present, and to meet rather than to foretell, the future - Carl Becker. Becker's quote reminds us of the importance of revealing and understanding historical practices in order to influence actions in the future. There are compelling reasons for uncovering this history, in particular to better inform government policy makers and health advocates, and to address the impacts of growing community expectations to 'make the punishment fit the crime'. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  18. The Impact of United States Monetary Policy in the Crude Oil futures market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla-Padilla, Fernando M.

    This research examines the empirical impact the United States monetary policy, through the federal fund interest rate, has on the volatility in the crude oil price in the futures market. Prior research has shown how macroeconomic events and variables have impacted different financial markets within short and long--term movements. After testing and decomposing the variables, the two stationary time series were analyzed using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The empirical evidence shows, with statistical significance, a direct relationship when explaining crude oil prices as function of fed fund rates (t-1) and an indirect relationship when explained as a function of fed fund rates (t-2). These results partially address the literature review lacunas within the topic of the existing implication monetary policy has within the crude oil futures market.

  19. Politics of oil in Venezuela: A decision-making analysis of PDVSA's internationalisation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena, Cesar E.

    The high degree of international vertical integration achieved by the Venezuelan state oil enterprise, Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), has placed it among the most important oil multinationals (MNs). The policy of creating downstream outlets through the establishment of foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the form of refinery assets was given the term of 'internationalisation'. By analysing PDVSA's internationalisation policy, the thesis explores the difficulties encountered by a major state-owned enterprise (SOE) from a developing country in its efforts to grow beyond national borders. The study focuses on the impact of democratic bargaining on the process of oil policymaking in Venezuela, stressing the constraints posed by politics on PDVSA's efforts to expand its foreign operations. Specifically, the study examines the intricate policymaking process that shaped the origins and the development of PDVSA's internationalisation policy, underlying the events and factors that influenced each one of its three distinguishable phases: adoption, formulation, and implementation. The tensions between politics and corporate strategy are highlighted at the core of the policymaking process. The study also looks at the relationship between the oil industry and the other two key decision-making centres involved in the oil policymaking process: the executive and Congress. In exploring the ways in which each one of them sought to influence policy outcome, the study attempts to gain insight into the main factors that prompted the tensions among the policy actors involved. Three environments, or pressure-generating centres, constantly exert influence on the oil industry: the oil market, the political context and the government's financial situation. By seeking to determine the industry's response to their pervasive influence on policy formulation and implementation, this research ascertains the extent to which these variables influenced the decision-making process that

  20. Optimal Decision Making Framework of an Electric Vehicle Aggregator in Future and Pool markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rashidizadeh-Kermani, Homa; Najafi, Hamid Reza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad

    2018-01-01

    An electric vehicle (EV) aggregator, as an agent between power producers and EV owners, participates in the future and pool market to supply EVs’ requirement. Because of uncertain nature of pool prices and EVs’ behavior, this paper proposed a two stage scenario-based model to obtain optimal decis...... electricity markets, a sensitivity analysis over risk factor is performed. The numerical results demonstrate that with the application of the proposed model, the aggregator can supply EVs with lower purchases from markets....... decision making of an EV aggregator. To deal with mentioned uncertainties, the aggregator’s risk aversion is applied using conditional value at risk (CVaR) method in the proposed model. The proposed two stage risk-constrained decision making problem is applied to maximize EV aggregator’s expected profit...... in an uncertain environment. The aggregator can participate in the future and pool market to buy required energy of EVs and offer optimal charge/discharge prices to the EV owners. In this model, in order to assess the effects of EVs owners’ reaction to the aggregator’s offered prices on the purchases from...

  1. Policy issues arising from the judgmental nature of risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mcquaid, J.

    1998-01-01

    The regulation of risks is pervaded by the need to exercise judgement. The scientific basis for characterising risk problems and judging the effectiveness of possible controls is often uncertain, lacking information and understanding of the processes involved. However, the risk management measures adopted will not be determined by science alone, but must reflect sociological, economic, ethical and political considerations. These in turn are in themselves judgmental, informed to a greater or lesser extent by empirical evidence and influenced by the prevailing climate of public opinion. The overall process provides a rich source of confusion for the public as to the status of the eventual policy decision, with important implications for the manner in which the process of communication is managed. The important role of judgement, as distinct from formal analysis, at every stage needs to be reflected in risk communication. The engagement of those who bear the risks, and of other interested parties in the exercise of judgement must be tailored to nature of the judgement and to the decision to be made. Appropriate procedures need to be adopted to enable that engagement. Although the issue has come into particular prominence in recent years, it is not a new phenomenon. The presentation will describe the arrangements that have been developed in the UK over the past 25 years, and will be illustrated by some specific examples of risk decision making on issues of high public concern. (author)

  2. COMMENTARY: GLOBALIZATION, HEALTH SECTOR REFORM, AND THE HUMAN RIGHT TO HEALTH: IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE HEALTH POLICY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuftan, Claudio

    2015-01-01

    The author here distills his long-time personal experience with the deleterious effects of globalization on health and on the health sector reforms embarked on in many of the more than 50 countries where he has worked in the last 25 years. He highlights the role that the "human right to health" framework can and should play in countering globalization's negative effects on health and in shaping future health policy. This is a testimonial article.

  3. Global mHealth policy arena: status check and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malvey, Donna M; Slovensky, Donna J

    2017-01-01

    In this review, we examine an important piece of the mHealth puzzle that has received scant attention-health policy. The question is whether health policy ultimately will serve to unite nations in advancing global mHealth or, as Mars and Scott suggested in 2010, keep nations isolated and ultimately making their policy decisions in "eHealth silos". Such a non-collaborative approach seriously hampers the potential for using mobile health technologies to deliver health care across borders, assuring individuals access to affordable, convenient, and quality healthcare in underserved regions. From a global perspective, mHealth policy review is difficult as some important policies may be subsumed in comprehensive planning and strategy documents. Political, environmental, economic, organizational, and technology disparities across nations represent a significant impediment to developing mHealth products and services that can be deployed globally. To date, there is modest evidence that such challenges are being addressed. Even though payers can encourage adoption of mHealth with financial incentives for use, it appears that payment or reimbursement tends to be a roadblock for almost all nations, whether they are emerging or developed. If payment for mHealth services is not guaranteed, business models will not be sustainable and providers will have fewer opportunities for scalability. Furthermore, because mHealth policies typically are subject to some type of government scrutiny and oversight, many product developers and entrepreneurs may turn elsewhere for their investments. Global resource scarcity also challenges optimal mHealth deployment, and governments seek to ensure improved population health outcomes as return on their mHealth investments. Unfortunately, such justification is difficult as evaluation methods simply have not kept pace with mHealth technology capability. Requisite measurement tools are sorely lacking when it comes to evaluating efficacy of m

  4. Nuclear power plants in past and future of Hungarian energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bueki, Gergely

    2014-01-01

    In the Hungarian electric power supply nuclear power plants are important and stay so. It is underpinned by the country's energy resources. Although building nuclear power plants is an enormous investment and the extension with new blocks costs a lot, electric power generated by NPP is the cheapest one and can remain the cheapest if rational decisions will be made. Building and operation Paks Nuclear Power Plant demands for high level professional culture in education, in planning, in industry, in research and in operations. With building new reactor blocks it is expected that energy policy, power plant engineering will renew, while new jobs are created and the economy growths. (TRA)

  5. Visions of Alternative (Unpredictable Futures and Their Use in Policy Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Costanza

    2000-07-01

    Full Text Available The most critical task facing humanity today is the creation of a shared vision of a sustainable and desirable society, one that can provide permanent prosperity within the biophysical constraints of the real world in a way that is fair and equitable to all of humanity, to other species, and to future generations. Recent work with businesses and communities indicates that creating a shared vision is the most effective engine for change in the desired direction, yet most effort in "futures modeling" has focused on extrapolating past trends rather than envisioning alternative futures. Science and economics as applied to policy are in conflict more often over alternative visions of the world than purely "scientific" disagreements. Likewise, governance has gotten bogged down in mediating short term conflicts between special interests rather than its more basic role of creating broadly shared visions that can guide dispute resolution. This paper addresses the question of what policies are most appropriate for society now, given alternative visions of the future and the enormous uncertainty about the reality of the assumptions underlying these visions. Four specific visions are laid out as being representative of the major alternatives. For each vision the benefits of achieving the vision, the assumptions that would have to be true in order for it to be achieved, and the implications of it being attempted but not achieved are explored. It is argued that dealing with uncertainty about the nature of the world, its carrying capacity for humans, the impacts of climate change, and other aspects of its future can best be done at this level of future visions and assumptions, not at more detailed levels (like the parameter uncertainty in models. Application of this vision/uncertainty analysis can help us both to design the future society we want and to maximize the chances of our getting there safely.

  6. Energy futures, state planning policies and coal mine contests in rural New South Wales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Connor, Linda H.

    2016-01-01

    The United Nations 2015 Climate Change Conference established a framework for keeping global temperature increase “well below” two degrees Celsius through commitments by the parties to significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The agreement has implications for the energy policies of all countries, not least major coal exporters like Australia. By contrast, the government's 2015 Energy White Paper lays out the vision for the country's future as a “global energy superpower” dominated by the export of fossil fuels for decades to come. Legislative frameworks around planning, land use, mining, heritage and environment have moved in synchrony with this agenda. Rural landowners in the big coal rich geological basins of Australia are directly impacted by current government policies on energy exports and on domestic supply. This article follows the coal value chain to rural communities in New South Wales where new mines are being built, and analyses the politics of land use, natural resources and energy from the vantage point of landowner engagement with government and corporations in the policy, legislative and regulatory domains. The need for more equitable, democratic and precautionary approaches to energy policy, heritage and environmental planning and agricultural land use is highlighted. - Highlights: • Australian energy policies prioritise coal and gas exports to emerging economies. • Rural landholders are marginalised in mining law, environmental protection legislation and planning regulations. • Disputes with companies centre on control of natural resources necessary for agriculture.

  7. Decision-making and addiction (part II): myopia for the future or hypersensitivity to reward?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechara, Antoine; Dolan, Sara; Hindes, Andrea

    2002-01-01

    On a decision-making instrument known as the "gambling task" (GT), a subgroup of substance dependent individuals (SDI) opted for choices that yield high immediate gains in spite of higher future losses. This resembles the behavior of patients with ventromedial (VM) prefrontal cortex lesions. In this study, we addressed the possibility that hypersensitivity to reward may account for the "myopia" for the future in this subgroup of SDI. We used a variant version of the GT, in which the good decks yielded high immediate punishment but higher delayed reward. The bad decks yielded low immediate punishment and lower delayed reward. We measured the skin conductance response (SCR) of subjects after receiving reward (reward SCR) and during their pondering from which deck to choose (anticipatory SCR). A subgroup of SDI who was not impaired on the original GT performed normally on the variant GT. The subgroup of SDI who was impaired on the original GT showed two levels of performance on the variant GT. One subgroup (36% of the sample) performed poorly on the variant GT, and showed similar behavioral and physiological impairments to VM patients. The other subgroup of SDI (64% of the sample) performed normally on the variant task, but had abnormally large physiological responses to reward, i.e. large SCR after receiving reward (reward SCR) and large SCR in anticipation of outcomes that yield large reward. Thus, the combined cognitive and physiological approach of assessing decision-making characterizes three sub-populations of SDI. One sub-population is without impairments that can be detected by any measure of the GT paradigm. Another sub-population is similar to VM patients in that they are insensitive to the future, both positive and negative. A third sub-population is hypersensitive to reward, so that the presence or the prospect of receiving, reward dominates their behavior.

  8. An exploratory study identifying where local government public health decision makers source their evidence for policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoneham, Melissa; Dodds, James

    2014-08-01

    The Western Australian (WA) Public Health Bill will replace the antiquated Health Act 1911. One of the proposed clauses of the Bill requires all WA local governments to develop a Public Health Plan. The Bill states that Public Health Plans should be based on evidence from all levels, including national and statewide priorities, community needs, local statistical evidence, and stakeholder data. This exploratory study, which targeted 533 WA local government officers, aimed to identify the sources of evidence used to generate the list of public health risks to be included in local government Public Health Plans. The top four sources identified for informing local policy were: observation of the consequences of the risks in the local community (24.5%), statewide evidence (17.6%), local evidence (17.6%) and coverage in local media (16.2%). This study confirms that both hard and soft data are used to inform policy decisions at the local level. Therefore, the challenge that this study has highlighted is in the definition or constitution of evidence. SO WHAT? Evidence is critical to the process of sound policy development. This study highlights issues associated with what actually constitutes evidence in the policy development process at the local government level. With the exception of those who work in an extremely narrow field, it is difficult for local government officers, whose role includes policymaking, to read the vast amount of information that has been published in their area of expertise. For those who are committed to the notion of evidence-based policymaking, as advocated within the WA Public Health Bill, this presents a considerable challenge.

  9. An Overview of the Future Development of Climate and Earth System Models for Scientific and Policy Use (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington, W. M.

    2010-12-01

    The development of climate and earth system models has been regarded primarily as the making of scientific tools to study the complex nature of the Earth’s climate. These models have a long history starting with very simple physical models based on fundamental physics in the 1960s and over time they have become much more complex with atmospheric, ocean, sea ice, land/vegetation, biogeochemical, glacial and ecological components. The policy use aspects of these models did not start in the 1960s and 1970s as decision making tools but were used to answer fundamental scientific questions such as what happens when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increases or is doubled. They gave insights into the various interactions and were extensively compared with observations. It was realized that models of the earlier time periods could only give first order answers to many of the fundamental policy questions. As societal concerns about climate change rose, the policy questions of anthropogenic climate change became better defined; they were mostly concerned with the climate impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land cover change. In the late 1980s, the United Nations set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to perform assessments of the published literature. Thus, the development of climate and Earth system models became intimately linked to the need to not only improve our scientific understanding but also answering fundamental policy questions. In order to meet this challenge, the models became more complex and realistic so that they could address these policy oriented science questions such as rising sea level. The presentation will discuss the past and future development of global climate and earth system models for science and policy purposes. Also to be discussed is their interactions with economic integrated assessment models, regional and specialized models such as river transport or ecological components. As an example of one

  10. Energy policy, strategies for uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, P.L.; Surrey, A.J.

    1977-01-01

    The subject is dealt with in chapters, entitled: energy policy-objectives, strategies and policies; the 1967 fuel policy; problems of the optimising approach; the uncertain outlook; oil; coal; gas; electricity; the interdependence of the four fuel industries; energy policy for the future - the need for a long-term strategy; medium-term strategies and short-term policies; the organisational decisions of energy policy. Nuclear power is included in the subject matter. (U.K.)

  11. Between Policy-Making and Planning SEA and Strategic Decision-Making in the Danish Energy Sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyhne, Ivar

    2011-01-01

    This article deals with the challenge of approaching decision-making processes through strategic environmental assessment (SEA). It is argued that the interaction between policy-making and planning in strategic decision-making processes is a neglected reason for problems with applying SEA......, as legislation and guidance on SEA primarily approach either the policy or plan level. To substantiate the argument, the extent of interaction is empirically investigated. Four contemporary decision-making processes in the Danish energy sector are mapped as a series of choices. Fundamental changes...... with considerable environmental impacts are decided these years, often without preceding SEA processes. The mapping shows a profound interaction between policy-making and planning. In this interaction, public consultation, systematic environmental analyses, and transparency on alternatives are primarily related...

  12. The Boardroom Perspective: How Does Energy Efficiency Policy Influence Decision Making in Industry?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This report delves into the major factors or driving forces that decision makers within a large industrial company take into account when deciding to make new investments - the so-called {sup b}oardroom perspective{sup .} The rationale for an individual company making an investment that will reduce energy consumption varies considerably and depends on a range of factors. This report explores those factors that influence companies to invest in energy savings and proposes a methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of a country's energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation policies mix from this boardroom perspective. This paper is the product of collaboration between the IEA and the Institute of Industrial Productivity (IIP).

  13. Rational Risk-Benefit Decision-Making in the Setting of Military Mefloquine Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevin, Remington L

    2015-01-01

    Mefloquine is an antimalarial drug that has been commonly used in military settings since its development by the US military in the late 1980s. Owing to the drug's neuropsychiatric contraindications and its high rate of inducing neuropsychiatric symptoms, which are contraindications to the drug's continued use, the routine prescribing of mefloquine in military settings may be problematic. Due to these considerations and to recent concerns of chronic and potentially permanent psychiatric and neurological sequelae arising from drug toxicity, military prescribing of mefloquine has recently decreased. In settings where mefloquine remains available, policies governing prescribing should reflect risk-benefit decision-making informed by the drug's perceived benefits and by consideration both of the risks identified in the drug's labeling and of specific military risks associated with its use. In this review, these risks are identified and recommendations are made for the rational prescribing of the drug in light of current evidence.

  14. A RWMAC commentary on the Science Policy Research Unit Report: UK Nuclear Decommissioning Policy: time for decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-04-01

    The Radioactive Waste Management Advisory Committee (RWMAC) is an independent body which advises the Secretaries of State for the Environment, Scotland and Wales, on civil radioactive waste management issues. Chapter 4 of the RWMAC's Twelfth Annual Report discussed nuclear power plant decommissioning strategy. One of the RWMAC's conclusions was that the concept of financial provisioning for power station decommissioning liabilities, which might be passed on to society several generations into the future, deserved further study. A specification for such a study was duly written (Annex 2) and, following consideration of tendered responses, the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) at Sussex University, was contracted to carry out the work. The SPRU report stands as a SPRU analysis of the subject. This separate short RWMAC report, which is being released at the same time as the SPRU report, presents the RWMAC's own commentary on the SPRU study. The RWMAC has identified five main issues which should be addressed when deciding on a nuclear plant decommissioning strategy. These are: the technical approach to decommissioning, the basis of financial provisions, treatment of risk, segregation of management of funds, and the need for a wider environmental view. (author)

  15. A RWMAC commentary on the Science Policy Research Unit report: UK nuclear decommissioning policy: time for decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-04-01

    Chapter 4 of the RWMAC's Twelfth Annual Report discussed nuclear power plant decommissioning strategy. One of the RWMAC's conclusions was that the concept of financial provisioning for power station decommissioning liabilities, which might be passed on to society several generations into the future, deserved further study. A specification for such a study was duly written (Annex 2) and, following consideration of tendered responses, the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) at Sussex University, was contracted to carry out the work. The SPRU report stands as a SPRU analysis of the subject. This separate short RWMAC report, which is being released at the same time as the SPRU report, presents the RWMAC's own commentary on the SPRU study. The RWMAC has identified five main issues which should be addressed when deciding on a nuclear plant decommissioning strategy. These are: the technical approach to decommissioning, the basis of financial provisions, treatment of risk, segregation of management of funds, and the need for a wider environmental view. These issues are addressed in this RWMAC report. (author)

  16. Convergence Of Cloud Computing Internet Of Things And Machine Learning The Future Of Decision Support Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto Crespo-Perez

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research was to develop a framework for understanding the Convergence of Cloud Computing Machine Learning and Internet of Things as the future of Decision Support Systems. To develop this framework the researchers analyzed and synthesized 35 research articles from 2006 to 2017. The results indicated that when the data is massive it is necessary to use computational algorithms and complex analytical techniques. The Internet of Things in combination with the large accumulation of data and data mining improves the learning of automatic intelligence for business. This is due to the fact that the technology has the intelligence to infer and provide solutions based on past experiences and past events.

  17. Addressing preference heterogeneity in public health policy by combining Cluster Analysis and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaltoft, Mette Kjer; Turner, Robin; Cunich, Michelle

    2015-01-01

    The use of subgroups based on biological-clinical and socio-demographic variables to deal with population heterogeneity is well-established in public policy. The use of subgroups based on preferences is rare, except when religion based, and controversial. If it were decided to treat subgroup...... preferences as valid determinants of public policy, a transparent analytical procedure is needed. In this proof of method study we show how public preferences could be incorporated into policy decisions in a way that respects both the multi-criterial nature of those decisions, and the heterogeneity...... techniques of CA to demonstrate that not only do different techniques produce different clusters, but that choosing among techniques (as well as developing the MCDA structure) is an important task to be undertaken in implementing the approach outlined in any specific policy context. Data for the illustrative...

  18. Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support Systems for Future Urban Energy Retrofitting Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrizia Lombardi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, there is an increasing concern about sustainable urban energy development taking into account national priorities of each city. Many cities have started to define future strategies and plans to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Urban energy scenarios involve the consideration of a wide range of conflicting criteria, both socio-economic and environmental ones. Moreover, decision-makers (DMs require proper tools that can support their choices in a context of multiple stakeholders and a long-term perspective. In this context, Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support Systems (MC-SDSS are often used in order to define and analyze urban scenarios since they support the comparison of different solutions, based on a combination of multiple factors. The main problem, in relation to urban energy retrofitting scenarios, is the lack of appropriate knowledge and evaluation criteria. The latter are crucial for delivering and assessing urban energy scenarios through a MC-SDSS tool. The main goal of this paper is to analyze and test two different methods for the definition and ranking of the evaluation criteria. More specifically, the paper presents an on-going research study related to the development of a MC-SDSS tool able to identify and evaluate alternative energy urban scenarios in a long-term period perspective. This study refers to two Smart City and Communities research projects, namely: DIMMER (District Information Modeling and Management for Energy Reduction and EEB (Zero Energy Buildings in Smart Urban Districts.

  19. How to enhance the future use of energy policy simulation models through ex post validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan

    2017-01-01

    Although simulation and modeling in general and system dynamics models in particular has long served the energy policy domain, ex post validation of these energy policy models is rarely addressed. In fact, ex post validation is a valuable area of research because it offers modelers a chance to enhance the future use of their simulation models by validating them against the field data. This paper contributes by presenting (i) a system dynamics simulation model, which was developed and used to do a three dimensional, socio-economical and environmental long-term assessment of Pakistan's energy policy in 1999, (ii) a systematic analysis of the 15-years old predictive scenarios produced by a system dynamics simulation model through ex post validation. How did the model predictions compare with the actual data? We report that the ongoing crisis of the electricity sector of Pakistan is unfolding, as the model-based scenarios had projected. - Highlights: • Argues that increased use of energy policy models is dependent on their credibility validation. • An ex post validation process is presented as a solution to build confidence in models. • A unique system dynamics model, MDESRAP, is presented. • The root mean square percentage error and Thiel's inequality statistics are applied. • The dynamic model, MDESRAP, is presented as an ex ante and ex post validated model.

  20. Advancing the field of elder abuse: future directions and policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, XinQi

    2012-11-01

    Elder abuse, sometimes called elder mistreatment or elder maltreatment, includes psychological, physical, and sexual abuse; neglect (caregiver neglect and self-neglect); and financial exploitation. Evidence suggests that one in 10 older adults experiences some form of elder abuse, but only one in 25 cases is reported to social services agencies. At the same time, elder abuse is associated with significant morbidity and premature mortality. Despite these findings, there is a great paucity in research, practice, and policy addressing the pervasive issues of elder abuse. Through my experiences as a American Political Sciences Association Congressional Policy Fellow and Health and Aging Policy Fellow working with the Administration on Community Living (ACL) (previously known as the Administration on Aging) for the last 2 years, I will describe the major functions of the ACL and highlight two major pieces of federal legislation: The Older Americans Act and the Elder Justice Act. I will also highlight major research gaps and future policy relevant research directions for the field of elder abuse. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

  1. How citizen advisory boards provide input into major waste policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, E.; Murakami, L.; Hanson, L.

    1995-01-01

    Volunteer citizen boards, such as Site Specific Advisory Boards, can be a very important key to success for the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Waste Management program. These boards can provide informed, independent recommendations reflecting the diversity of the community and its values. A successful volunteer process requires collaboration among regulators, DOE and other Boards; knowing how and when to interface with the broader public; understanding the diversity and representational issues of a citizens group; knowing the open-quotes ins and outsclose quotes of working with volunteers; education and training and most importantly, planning. Volunteers on a citizens board were created to tackle the big picture, policy decisions. The chair of the Rocky Flats Citizens Advisory Board will describe her Board's successes, including the challenges in reaching consensus agreements, as well as the need for integration with other boards and the sites' on-going public involvement programs to provide the input the department is seeking. Finally, one of the greatest challenges for the boards is interfacing with the greater public-at-large, seeing how the CAB has overcome this challenge and integrating broader public input into its decisions

  2. How citizen advisory boards provide input into major waste policy decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rogers, E.; Murakami, L.; Hanson, L. [Rocky Flats Citizen Advisory Board, Westminster, CO (United States)

    1995-12-31

    Volunteer citizen boards, such as Site Specific Advisory Boards, can be a very important key to success for the Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Waste Management program. These boards can provide informed, independent recommendations reflecting the diversity of the community and its values. A successful volunteer process requires collaboration among regulators, DOE and other Boards; knowing how and when to interface with the broader public; understanding the diversity and representational issues of a citizens group; knowing the {open_quotes}ins and outs{close_quotes} of working with volunteers; education and training and most importantly, planning. Volunteers on a citizens board were created to tackle the big picture, policy decisions. The chair of the Rocky Flats Citizens Advisory Board will describe her Board`s successes, including the challenges in reaching consensus agreements, as well as the need for integration with other boards and the sites` on-going public involvement programs to provide the input the department is seeking. Finally, one of the greatest challenges for the boards is interfacing with the greater public-at-large, seeing how the CAB has overcome this challenge and integrating broader public input into its decisions.

  3. Methods of legitimation: how ethics committees decide which reasons count in public policy decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Kyle T

    2014-07-01

    In recent years, liberal democratic societies have struggled with the question of how best to balance expertise and democratic participation in the regulation of emerging technologies. This study aims to explain how national deliberative ethics committees handle the practical tension between scientific expertise, ethical expertise, expert patient input, and lay public input by explaining two institutions' processes for determining the legitimacy or illegitimacy of reasons in public policy decision-making: that of the United Kingdom's Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) and the United States' American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM). The articulation of these 'methods of legitimation' draws on 13 in-depth interviews with HFEA and ASRM members and staff conducted in January and February 2012 in London and over Skype, as well as observation of an HFEA deliberation. This study finds that these two institutions employ different methods in rendering certain arguments legitimate and others illegitimate: while the HFEA attempts to 'balance' competing reasons but ultimately legitimizes arguments based on health and welfare concerns, the ASRM seeks to 'filter' out arguments that challenge reproductive autonomy. The notably different structures and missions of each institution may explain these divergent approaches, as may what Sheila Jasanoff (2005) terms the distinctive 'civic epistemologies' of the US and the UK. Significantly for policy makers designing such deliberative committees, each method differs substantially from that explicitly or implicitly endorsed by the institution. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. External factors affecting decision-making and use of evidence in an Australian public health policy environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zardo, Pauline; Collie, Alex; Livingstone, Charles

    2014-05-01

    This study examined external factors affecting policy and program decision-making in a specific public health policy context: injury prevention and rehabilitation compensation in the Australian state of Victoria. The aim was twofold: identify external factors that affect policy and program decision-making in this specific context; use this evidence to inform targeting of interventions aimed at increasing research use in this context. Qualitative interviews were undertaken from June 2011 to January 2012 with 33 employees from two state government agencies. Key factors identified were stakeholder feedback and action, government and ministerial input, legal feedback and action, injured persons and the media. The identified external factors were able to significantly influence policy and program decision-making processes: acting as both barriers and facilitators, depending on the particular issue at hand. The factors with the most influence were the Minister and government, lawyers, and agency stakeholders, particularly health providers, trade unions and employer groups. This research revealed that interventions aimed at increasing use of research in this context must target and harness the influence of these groups. This research provides critical insights for researchers seeking to design interventions to increase use of research in policy environments and influence decision-making in Victorian injury prevention and rehabilitation compensation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Decision makers, scientists and the public as stakeholders: the connection between traffic intervention policy and air quality in a local context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiand, L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Schmitz, S.; Niehoff, N.

    2017-12-01

    Urban mobility is a key issue to make cities more inclusive, safer, and more environmentally friendly. To ensure a sustainable future, local policy should, among other actions, aim to improve access to sustainable transport systems and enhance mobility opportunities, while at the same time addressing critical environmental and health targets. In order to assess whether these objectives are met, measures should be informed and evaluated from a social and environmental perspective. Citizens' opinions and the acceptance of environmental policies are crucial to successful implementation of urban mobility measures. The complexity of urban air quality issues require transparent decision-making processes that are grounded in evidence-based research and embrace local knowledge. From this basis, our research group and the city council collaborated to assess a new policy action intended to address environmental and health targets. This talk will present the results from the assessment of this new policy, that was implemented in large part to alleviate air quality exceedances, from the perspective of public acceptability of the measure and the approach taken by the city council to implement the measure. Parallel to assessing the effect of this policy on the recorded levels of air pollution and traffic counts, we conducted a social survey to examine public opinions of this measure, as well as the link between air quality awareness and mobility decisions. 4661 responses were collected over a one month period. Survey participants were those most affected by the traffic measure, including commuters and local residents. The results show that there is an overall low acceptance rate of the measure (8%) as well as low concern for air quality (2,90 - where 1 = not concerned and 6 = very concerned). We also found that there is a negative relationship between air quality rating and air quality concern. A similar approach was taken to understand climate change concern, which will be

  6. Risk and Rationality in Adolescent Decision Making: Implications for Theory, Practice, and Public Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F; Farley, Frank

    2006-09-01

    Crime, smoking, drug use, alcoholism, reckless driving, and many other unhealthy patterns of behavior that play out over a lifetime often debut during adolescence. Avoiding risks or buying time can set a different lifetime pattern. Changing unhealthy behaviors in adolescence would have a broad impact on society, reducing the burdens of disease, injury, human suffering, and associated economic costs. Any program designed to prevent or change such risky behaviors should be founded on a clear idea of what is normative (what behaviors, ideally, should the program foster?), descriptive (how are adolescents making decisions in the absence of the program?), and prescriptive (which practices can realistically move adolescent decisions closer to the normative ideal?). Normatively, decision processes should be evaluated for coherence (is the thinking process nonsensical, illogical, or self-contradictory?) and correspondence (are the outcomes of the decisions positive?). Behaviors that promote positive physical and mental health outcomes in modern society can be at odds with those selected for by evolution (e.g., early procreation). Healthy behaviors may also conflict with a decision maker's goals. Adolescents' goals are more likely to maximize immediate pleasure, and strict decision analysis implies that many kinds of unhealthy behavior, such as drinking and drug use, could be deemed rational. However, based on data showing developmental changes in goals, it is important for policy to promote positive long-term outcomes rather than adolescents' short-term goals. Developmental data also suggest that greater risk aversion is generally adaptive, and that decision processes that support this aversion are more advanced than those that support risk taking. A key question is whether adolescents are developmentally competent to make decisions about risks. In principle, barring temptations with high rewards and individual differences that reduce self-control (i.e., under ideal

  7. Racism, gun ownership and gun control: biased attitudes in US whites may influence policy decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Kerry; Forrest, Walter; Lynott, Dermot; Daly, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Racism is related to policies preferences and behaviors that adversely affect blacks and appear related to a fear of blacks (e.g., increased policing, death penalty). This study examined whether racism is also related to gun ownership and opposition to gun controls in US whites. The most recent data from the American National Election Study, a large representative US sample, was used to test relationships between racism, gun ownership, and opposition to gun control in US whites. Explanatory variables known to be related to gun ownership and gun control opposition (i.e., age, gender, education, income, conservatism, anti-government sentiment, southern vs. other states, political identification) were entered in logistic regression models, along with measures of racism, and the stereotype of blacks as violent. Outcome variables included; having a gun in the home, opposition to bans on handguns in the home, support for permits to carry concealed handguns. After accounting for all explanatory variables, logistic regressions found that for each 1 point increase in symbolic racism there was a 50% increase in the odds of having a gun at home. After also accounting for having a gun in the home, there was still a 28% increase in support for permits to carry concealed handguns, for each one point increase in symbolic racism. The relationship between symbolic racism and opposition to banning handguns in the home (OR1.27 CI 1.03,1.58) was reduced to non-significant after accounting for having a gun in the home (OR1.17 CI.94,1.46), which likely represents self-interest in retaining property (guns). Symbolic racism was related to having a gun in the home and opposition to gun control policies in US whites. The findings help explain US whites' paradoxical attitudes towards gun ownership and gun control. Such attitudes may adversely influence US gun control policy debates and decisions.

  8. Prioritizing congenital syphilis control in south China: a decision analytic model to inform policy implementation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas X Tan

    Full Text Available Syphilis is a major public health problem in many regions of China, with increases in congenital syphilis (CS cases causing concern. The Chinese Ministry of Health recently announced a comprehensive 10-y national syphilis control plan focusing on averting CS. The decision analytic model presented here quantifies the impact of the planned strategies to determine whether they are likely to meet the goals laid out in the control plan.Our model incorporated data on age-stratified fertility, female adult syphilis cases, and empirical syphilis transmission rates to estimate the number of CS cases associated with prenatal syphilis infection on a yearly basis. Guangdong Province was the focus of this analysis because of the availability of high-quality demographic and public health data. Each model outcome was simulated 1,000 times to incorporate uncertainty in model inputs. The model was validated using data from a CS intervention program among 477,656 women in China. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify which variables are likely to be most influential in achieving Chinese and international policy goals. Increasing prenatal screening coverage was the single most effective strategy for reducing CS cases. An incremental increase in prenatal screening from the base case of 57% coverage to 95% coverage was associated with 106 (95% CI: 101, 111 CS cases averted per 100,000 live births (58% decrease. The policy strategies laid out in the national plan led to an outcome that fell short of the target, while a four-pronged comprehensive syphilis control strategy consisting of increased prenatal screening coverage, increased treatment completion, earlier prenatal screening, and improved syphilis test characteristics was associated with 157 (95% CI: 154, 160 CS cases averted per 100,000 live births (85% decrease.The Chinese national plan provides a strong foundation for syphilis control, but more comprehensive measures that include earlier and more

  9. Racism, gun ownership and gun control: biased attitudes in US whites may influence policy decisions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry O'Brien

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Racism is related to policies preferences and behaviors that adversely affect blacks and appear related to a fear of blacks (e.g., increased policing, death penalty. This study examined whether racism is also related to gun ownership and opposition to gun controls in US whites. METHOD: The most recent data from the American National Election Study, a large representative US sample, was used to test relationships between racism, gun ownership, and opposition to gun control in US whites. Explanatory variables known to be related to gun ownership and gun control opposition (i.e., age, gender, education, income, conservatism, anti-government sentiment, southern vs. other states, political identification were entered in logistic regression models, along with measures of racism, and the stereotype of blacks as violent. Outcome variables included; having a gun in the home, opposition to bans on handguns in the home, support for permits to carry concealed handguns. RESULTS: After accounting for all explanatory variables, logistic regressions found that for each 1 point increase in symbolic racism there was a 50% increase in the odds of having a gun at home. After also accounting for having a gun in the home, there was still a 28% increase in support for permits to carry concealed handguns, for each one point increase in symbolic racism. The relationship between symbolic racism and opposition to banning handguns in the home (OR1.27 CI 1.03,1.58 was reduced to non-significant after accounting for having a gun in the home (OR1.17 CI.94,1.46, which likely represents self-interest in retaining property (guns. CONCLUSIONS: Symbolic racism was related to having a gun in the home and opposition to gun control policies in US whites. The findings help explain US whites' paradoxical attitudes towards gun ownership and gun control. Such attitudes may adversely influence US gun control policy debates and decisions.

  10. Racism, Gun Ownership and Gun Control: Biased Attitudes in US Whites May Influence Policy Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    O’Brien, Kerry; Forrest, Walter; Lynott, Dermot; Daly, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Objective Racism is related to policies preferences and behaviors that adversely affect blacks and appear related to a fear of blacks (e.g., increased policing, death penalty). This study examined whether racism is also related to gun ownership and opposition to gun controls in US whites. Method The most recent data from the American National Election Study, a large representative US sample, was used to test relationships between racism, gun ownership, and opposition to gun control in US whites. Explanatory variables known to be related to gun ownership and gun control opposition (i.e., age, gender, education, income, conservatism, anti-government sentiment, southern vs. other states, political identification) were entered in logistic regression models, along with measures of racism, and the stereotype of blacks as violent. Outcome variables included; having a gun in the home, opposition to bans on handguns in the home, support for permits to carry concealed handguns. Results After accounting for all explanatory variables, logistic regressions found that for each 1 point increase in symbolic racism there was a 50% increase in the odds of having a gun at home. After also accounting for having a gun in the home, there was still a 28% increase in support for permits to carry concealed handguns, for each one point increase in symbolic racism. The relationship between symbolic racism and opposition to banning handguns in the home (OR1.27 CI 1.03,1.58) was reduced to non-significant after accounting for having a gun in the home (OR1.17 CI.94,1.46), which likely represents self-interest in retaining property (guns). Conclusions Symbolic racism was related to having a gun in the home and opposition to gun control policies in US whites. The findings help explain US whites’ paradoxical attitudes towards gun ownership and gun control. Such attitudes may adversely influence US gun control policy debates and decisions. PMID:24204867

  11. TIME Impact - a new user-friendly tuberculosis (TB) model to inform TB policy decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houben, R M G J; Lalli, M; Sumner, T; Hamilton, M; Pedrazzoli, D; Bonsu, F; Hippner, P; Pillay, Y; Kimerling, M; Ahmedov, S; Pretorius, C; White, R G

    2016-03-24

    Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from infectious disease worldwide, predominantly affecting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where resources are limited. As such, countries need to be able to choose the most efficient interventions for their respective setting. Mathematical models can be valuable tools to inform rational policy decisions and improve resource allocation, but are often unavailable or inaccessible for LMICs, particularly in TB. We developed TIME Impact, a user-friendly TB model that enables local capacity building and strengthens country-specific policy discussions to inform support funding applications at the (sub-)national level (e.g. Ministry of Finance) or to international donors (e.g. the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria).TIME Impact is an epidemiological transmission model nested in TIME, a set of TB modelling tools available for free download within the widely-used Spectrum software. The TIME Impact model reflects key aspects of the natural history of TB, with additional structure for HIV/ART, drug resistance, treatment history and age. TIME Impact enables national TB programmes (NTPs) and other TB policymakers to better understand their own TB epidemic, plan their response, apply for funding and evaluate the implementation of the response.The explicit aim of TIME Impact's user-friendly interface is to enable training of local and international TB experts towards independent use. During application of TIME Impact, close involvement of the NTPs and other local partners also builds critical understanding of the modelling methods, assumptions and limitations inherent to modelling. This is essential to generate broad country-level ownership of the modelling data inputs and results. In turn, it stimulates discussions and a review of the current evidence and assumptions, strengthening the decision-making process in general.TIME Impact has been effectively applied in a variety of settings. In South Africa, it

  12. Outline of the Future Agenda for Environmental Policy in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    An overview is given of the targets for the environmental policy in the Netherlands, focusing on the strict decoupling of economic development and changes in the environmental impacts. Also, the Dutch government aims at decreasing the environmental effects of the past in order to minimize the consequences for public health and the environment. Finally, transferring environmental problems to other parts of the world of future generations must be prevented as much as possible. Targets concern Economy and innovation; Public health and safety; Energy and climate; and Nature and biodiversity [nl

  13. A translation table for patient-centered comparative effectiveness research: guidance to improve the value of research for clinical and health policy decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tunis, Sean R; Messner, Donna A; Mohr, Penny; Gliklich, Richard E; Dubois, Robert W

    2012-05-01

    This article provides background and context for a series of papers stemming from a collaborative effort by Outcome Sciences, Inc., the National Pharmaceutical Council and the Center for Medical Technology Policy to use a stakeholder-driven process to develop a decision tool to select appropriate methods for comparative effectiveness research. The perceived need and origins of the 'translation table' concept for method selection are described and the legislative history and role of the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute are reviewed. The article concludes by stressing the significance of this effort for future health services and clinical research, and the importance of consulting end-users--patients, providers, payers and policy-makers--in the process of defining research questions and approaches to them.

  14. EPA Leadership on Science, Innovation, and Decision Support Tools for Addressing Current and Future Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, Alan D; Ferster, Aaron; Summers, Kevin

    2017-10-16

    When the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was established nearly 50 years ago, the nation faced serious threats to its air, land, and water, which in turn impacted human health. These threats were effectively addressed by the creation of EPA (in 1970) and many subsequent landmark environmental legislations which in turn significantly reduced threats to the Nation's environment and public health. A key element of historic legislation is research aimed at dealing with current and future problems. Today we face national and global challenges that go beyond classic media-specific (air, land, water) environmental legislation and require an integrated paradigm of action and engagement based on (1) innovation based on science and technology, (2) stakeholder engagement and collaboration, and (3) public education and support. This three-pronged approach recognizes that current environmental problems, include social as well as physical and environmental factors, are best addressed through collaborative problem solving, the application of innovation in science and technology, and multiple stakeholder engagement. To achieve that goal, EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) is working directly with states and local communities to develop and apply a suite of accessible decision support tools (DST) that aim to improve environmental conditions, protect human health, enhance economic opportunity, and advance a resilient and sustainability society. This paper showcases joint EPA and state actions to develop tools and approaches that not only meet current environmental and public health challenges, but do so in a way that advances sustainable, healthy, and resilient communities well into the future. EPA's future plans should build on current work but aim to effectively respond to growing external pressures. Growing pressures from megatrends are a major challenge for the new Administration and for cities and states across the country. The recent hurricanes hitting

  15. Envisioning a Future Decision Support System for Requirements Engineering : A Holistic and Human-centred Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Alenljung, Beatrice

    2008-01-01

    Complex decision-making is a prominent aspect of requirements engineering (RE) and the need for improved decision support for RE decision-makers has been identified by a number of authors in the research literature. The fundamental viewpoint that permeates this thesis is that RE decision-making can be substantially improved by RE decision support systems (REDSS) based on the actual needs of RE decision-makers as well as the actual generic human decision-making activities that take place in th...

  16. State Policy Leadership for the Future: History of State Coordination and Governance and Alternatives for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuinness, Aims

    2016-01-01

    A decade ago, the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education (the National Center) issued a policy brief, "State Capacity for Higher Education Policy." The National Center's core recommendation: States must have a broad-based, independent, credible public entity with a clear charge to increase the state's educational…

  17. Turning points towards sustainability: integrative science and policy for novel (but real landscape futures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J. Brunckhorst

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Non-metropolitan landscapes are the major theatre of interactions where large-scale alteration occurs precipitated by local to global forces of economic, social and environmental change. However, these regional landscape effects are critical also to local natural resource and social sustainability, ecosystem health through to larger scales of biospheric functioning. The institutions contributing pressures and responses consequently shape future landscapes and in turn influence how social systems, resource users, governments and policy makers perceive those landscapes and their future. These are, in essence, complex social-ecological systems intertwined in a multitude of ways at many spatial scales across time. Over time, the cycles of complex social-ecological systems also reach crossroads, which might be crisis points at which future options are no longer available (possibly because of resource degradation or loss, or turning points where opportunities arise when it is easier to change direction towards more sustainable activities. This paper provides some examples of interdisciplinary research that has provided a holistic integration through close engagement with residents and communities or through deliberately implementing integrative high-risk ‘on-ground’ experimental models to ‘learn by doing’. In the final analysis, each project has characteristically, however, sought to integrate through spatial (if not temporal synthesis, policy analysis and (new or changed institutional arrangements that are relevant locally and corporately, as well as at broader levels of government and geography. This has provided transferable outcomes that can contribute real options and adaptive capacity for suitable positive futures.

  18. Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Wholesale Electricity Prices, and on Electric-Sector Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Seel, J; Mills, AD; Wiser, RH

    2018-01-01

    Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low V...

  19. Embedding health policy and systems research into decision-making processes in low- and middle-income countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koon, Adam D; Rao, Krishna D; Tran, Nhan T; Ghaffar, Abdul

    2013-08-08

    Attention is increasingly directed to bridging the gap between the production of knowledge and its use for health decision-making in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). An important and underdeveloped area of health policy and systems research (HPSR) is the organization of this process. Drawing from an interdisciplinary conception of embeddedness, a literature review was conducted to identify examples of embedded HPSR used to inform decision-making in LMICs. The results of the literature review were organized according to the World Health Organization's Building Blocks Framework. Next, a conceptual model was created to illustrate the arrangement of organizations that produce embedded HPSR and the characteristics that facilitate its uptake into the arena of decision-making. We found that multiple forces converge to create context-specific pathways through which evidence enters into decision-making. Depending on the decision under consideration, the literature indicates that decision-makers may call upon an intricate combination of actors for sourcing HPSR. While proximity to decision-making does have advantages, it is not the position of the organization within the network, but rather the qualities the organization possesses, that enable it to be embedded. Our findings suggest that four qualities influence embeddedness: reputation, capacity, quality of connections to decision-makers, and quantity of connections to decision-makers and others. In addition to this, the policy environment (e.g. the presence of legislation governing the use of HPSR, presence of strong civil society, etc.) strongly influences uptake. Through this conceptual model, we can understand which conditions are likely to enhance uptake of HPSR in LMIC health systems. This raises several important considerations for decision-makers and researchers about the arrangement and interaction of evidence-generating organizations in health systems.

  20. Bibliometrics as a Tool for Supporting Prospective R&D Decision-Making in the Health Sciences: Strengths, Weaknesses and Options for Future Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Sharif; Nason, Edward; Marjanovic, Sonja; Grant, Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    Bibliometric analysis is an increasingly important part of a broader "toolbox" of evaluation methods available to research and development (R&D) policymakers to support decision-making. In the US, UK and Australia, for example, there is evidence of gradual convergence over the past ten years towards a model of university research assessment and ranking incorporating the use of bibliometric measures. In Britain, the Department of Health (England) has shown growing interest in using bibliometric analysis to support prospective R&D decision-making, and has engaged RAND Europe's expertise in this area through a number of exercises since 2005. These range from the macro-level selection of potentially high impact institutions, to micro-level selection of high impact individuals for the National Institute for Health Research's faculty of researchers. The aim of this study is to create an accessible, "beginner's guide" to bibliometric theory and application in the area of health R&D decision-making. The study also aims to identify future directions and possible next steps in this area, based on RAND Europe's work with the Department of Health to date. It is targeted at a range of audiences, and will be of interest to health and biomedical researchers, as well as R&D decision-makers in the UK and elsewhere. The study was completed with funding support from RAND Europe's Health R&D Policy Research Unit with the Department of Health.

  1. Dark Matter: The "Gravitational Pull" of Maternalist Discourses on Politicians' Decision Making for Early Childhood Policy in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bown, Kathryn; Sumsion, Jennifer; Press, Frances

    2011-01-01

    The article reports on a study investigating influences on Australian politicians' decision making for early childhood education and care (ECEC) policy. The astronomical concept of dark matter is utilised as a metaphor for considering normalising, and therefore frequently difficult to detect and disrupt, influences implicated in politicians'…

  2. Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for US federal wildland fire policy and decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    David C. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Matthew P. Thompson; Krista M. Gebert

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we review progress towards the implementation of a riskmanagement framework for US federal wildland fire policy and operations. We first describe new developments in wildfire simulation technology that catalyzed the development of risk-based decision support systems for strategic wildfire management. These systems include new analytical methods to measure...

  3. Burden's on U! the Impact of the "Fisher v. University of Texas at Austin" Decision on K-16 Admissions Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, David H. K.

    2014-01-01

    Using race as a factor in admissions policies was contested in "Fisher v. University of Texas at Austin." Although the U.S. Supreme Court firmly held in "Grutter v. Bollinger" that race can be considered among many factors in admitting students, the recent decision in "Fisher" has posed many questions and challenges…

  4. Children's Participation in Decision-Making in the Philippines: Understanding the Attitudes of Policy-Makers and Service Providers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessell, Sharon

    2009-01-01

    This article explores the ideas about children's participation in decision-making held by government officials and non-government representatives engaged in promoting children's participation in the Philippines. It suggests that the ideas that policy-makers and service deliverers hold about children's participation are heterogeneous, diverse and…

  5. How Instructional Coaches Support Data-Driven Decision Making: Policy Implementation and Effects in Florida Middle Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Julie A.; McCombs, Jennifer Sloan; Martorell, Francisco

    2010-01-01

    This article examines the convergence of two popular school improvement policies: instructional coaching and data-driven decision making (DDDM). Drawing on a mixed methods study of a statewide reading coach program in Florida middle schools, the article examines how coaches support DDDM and how this support relates to student and teacher outcomes.…

  6. Tactical decision making for selective expansion of operating room resources incorporating financial criteria and uncertainty in subspecialties' future workloads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dexter, Franklin; Ledolter, Johannes; Wachtel, Ruth E

    2005-05-01

    We considered the allocation of operating room (OR) time at facilities where the strategic decision had been made to increase the number of ORs. Allocation occurs in two stages: a long-term tactical stage followed by short-term operational stage. Tactical decisions, approximately 1 yr in advance, determine what specialized equipment and expertise will be needed. Tactical decisions are based on estimates of future OR workload for each subspecialty or surgeon. We show that groups of surgeons can be excluded from consideration at this tactical stage (e.g., surgeons who need intensive care beds or those with below average contribution margins per OR hour). Lower and upper limits are estimated for the future demand of OR time by the remaining surgeons. Thus, initial OR allocations can be accomplished with only partial information on future OR workload. Once the new ORs open, operational decision-making based on OR efficiency is used to fill the OR time and adjust staffing. Surgeons who were not allocated additional time at the tactical stage are provided increased OR time through operational adjustments based on their actual workload. In a case study from a tertiary hospital, future demand estimates were needed for only 15% of surgeons, illustrating the practicality of these methods for use in tactical OR allocation decisions.

  7. The limits of scientific information for informing forest policy decisions under changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLachlan, J. S.

    2011-12-01

    The distribution of tree species is largely determined by climate, with important consequences for ecosystem function, biodiversity, and the human economy. In the past, conflicts about priority among these various goods have produced persistent debate about forest policy and management. Despite this history of conflict, there has been general agreement on the framework for the debate: Our benchmark for assessing human impact is generally some historical condition (in the New World, this is often pre-European settlement). Wilderness is to be managed with minimal human intervention. Native species are preferred over non-natives. And regional landscapes can be effectively partitioned into independent jurisdictions with different management priorities. Each of these principles was always somewhat mythical, but the dynamics of broad scale species range shifts under climate change make all of them untenable in the future. Managed relocation (MR, or assisted migration) is a controversial proposal partly because it demands scientific answers that we do not have: Are trees naturally capable of shifting their ranges as fast as climate will force them? Will deliberate introductions of species beyond their native ranges have adverse impacts on the receiving ecosystem? What are appropriate targets for hydrologic or fire management under novel no-analog climates? However, these demands on science mask a more fundamental concern: the ethical framework underlying existing forest policy is unsupported in the context of long-term non-stationary environmental trends. Whether or not we conclude that MR is a useful policy option, debate about MR is useful because it forces us to place the global change ecology agenda in a larger ethical debate about our goals when managing novel ecosystems.

  8. Local Energy Advising in Sweden: Historical Development and Lessons for Future Policy-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Are E. Kjeang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In Sweden, energy-consulting services, here referred to as local energy advising (LEA, have traditionally contributed to improving household energy efficiency. The aim of this article is to analyze the development of this service from the 1970s, when the consultancy came into being, to the present day, through a review of documents and published literature. The analysis enables the understanding of the evolution of local energy advising as a policy instrument, and provides valuable insights for the future. Local energy advising has often been subsidized by the Swedish government and used as a state policy measure rather than a municipal one. As a policy measure, the function of the service has changed over time. In the early period, the oil crisis was a fact and the local advisers were used to inform households. In the 1980s, however, the task of energy-advising was taken over by the energy companies in the spirit of market liberalization. In the 1990s, Sweden became a member of the European Union, and the emphasis was put on general information campaigns. Recently, the development of decentralized energy systems (including micro-energy systems has necessitated targeting individuals with information. One important lesson to learn from the historical development of LEA is the imperativeness of providing energy advising at the local rather than the state level for better efficiency.

  9. Alzheimer's disease legislation and policy--now and in the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, David

    2014-04-01

    Recent studies have pointed to the large and increasingly complex issues surrounding dementia in American society in general and health care in particular. The initial foray into the federal policy arena, the National Alzheimer's Project Act, is a good first step but remains limited in scope and resources. Seeing the need for greater effort, thirty-three states have convened advisory groups and published their own plans for coordinating state-level activity to address Alzheimer's disease across service systems. This article examines the current federal and state policy statements on dementia-related issues and offers an outlook and suggestions for next steps along with the imperative for action on a significant scale. This is necessary to address issues in a meaningful way today instead of simply holding out hope for a treatment or cure in the future. Dementia in general and Alzheimer's disease in particular affect individuals and every facet of families, health care, business, states, and communities. While public policy statements at all levels call for increased coordination of resources, better communication, awareness, and essential linkages, more effort is required.

  10. Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we use a technological model of Ireland's future car stock to simulate the impact of a range of policy measures on the baseline trend in energy demand in the period to 2030. The policies and measures modelled comprise meeting deployment targets for electric vehicles and compressed natural gas vehicles, an EU regulation for the improvement of vehicle efficiency, implementation of a national biofuel obligation, as well as several behavioural measures (encouraging modal shifting and reduced travel demand). The impact of the different measures simulated is measured in terms of their contribution to meeting Ireland's ambitious targets for energy savings, for renewable energy penetration and for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. The results point to a possible improvement of 32% in car stock efficiency, the achievement of 7.8% renewable energy share of road and rail transport and a 22% reduction in non-ETS private car CO 2 emissions relative to 2009 levels. A scenario analysis on meeting the EV penetration target shows a significant range of CO 2 emissions reductions depending on the cars (and mileage) displaced and on the electricity generation portfolio. - Highlights: ► Private car policy scenarios for Ireland modelled. ► Impact of vehicle efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural measures evaluated. ► Highlights distance to EU non-ETS emissions and renewable energy targets. ► Analysis of EV target shows that GHG mitigation potential is very sensitive.

  11. Recent trends in policies, socioeconomy and future directions of the biodiesel industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ng, J.H.; Ng, Hoon Kiat [University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus, Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering, Semenyih, Selangor (Malaysia); Gan, S. [University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus, Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Semenyih, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2010-06-15

    The growing uncertainty of available petroleum reserves and the associated environmental impacts from the usage of fossil fuels has led to a worldwide search for renewable energy sources. Biodiesel is currently placed at the forefront as the most viable alternative fuel for compression ignition engines as it can be produced from renewable sources through simple cost-effective transesterification, while being compatible with existing infrastructures. Despite these, biodiesel is still not economically feasible for large-scale adoption at present day, mainly due to the high cost of conventional feedstocks. Governmental policies, fiscal incentives and emissions laws have all shown to encourage the uptake of biodiesel in the early stages of market development. The rapid growth enjoyed by the biodiesel industry thereafter has raised concerns of various ethical issues, which must be addressed if the industry is to maintain its positive growth. The strategies required for a stable and sustained biodiesel industry will predominantly be based on the principles of a free market with minimal artificial interventions from policy makers, and the appropriate technological advances in production techniques and feedstocks options to stay competitive economically. This paper reviews the recent trends in global policies and legislative measures governing the economy of the biodiesel industry, and how these will impact the future outlook of the industry as a whole. Historical backgrounds and pertinent issues on socioeconomical and ethical aspects of the industry are also addressed here. (orig.)

  12. Gender, citizenship and dementia care: a scoping review of studies to inform policy and future research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, Ruth; Gjernes, Trude; Lotherington, Ann-Therese; Obstefelder, Aud

    2018-01-01

    Gender is a neglected dimension in public discourse related to people with dementia. Those living with this condition are typically portrayed in policies and strategies in gender neutral terms as 'people with dementia' and 'family carers' as if gender does not matter, when clearly it does. The purpose of this scoping review was to take stock of knowledge about gender differences in relation to dementia care to inform policy and future research. The work is grounded in a feminist perspective to citizenship, as this provide a lens with which to expose and examine gendered assumptions within dementia studies. A search of four databases, including CINAHL, Web of Science, Medline and Cochrane was conducted using systematic techniques between May and July 2014. A repeat search was conducted in February 2015. We found a significant amount of valuable research concerned with gender differences in relation to dementia care published from 1990 to 2014; the majority of which lacks a feminist citizenship perspective. Moreover, a disproportionate number of studies focused solely on caregivers rather than citizens with dementia. As such, questions about gender equality are not being raised and the voices of men and women with dementia are silent. Thus we argue for increased gender-sensitivity in policy making and recommend that social scientists inject a feminist citizenship perspective into their work. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. New dawn for electricity? EU policy and the changing decision space for electricity production in Sweden; a CANES Working Paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nilsson, Maans

    2009-11-15

    The European Union has taken an increasing interest in governing the energy sector in its Member States. However, EU still competes with national-level policies as well as sectoral organizational fields with sticky institutions, norms and knowledge. Therefore, despite its high ambitions in the energy field, for instance in the promotion of renewables and market reform, it is not clear whether the EU really exerts a strong influence, and if there is such an influence, the processes of influence and 'filtering' through to national political and industrial structures are not well understood. This paper examines a recent strategic change amongst national actors in Sweden in the energy sector; the decision space for investment in electricity. It examines the influence of European policy change, national political and policy change and organizational field-level developments on this decision space. It finds that European policy has rarely been very coercive, partly because Sweden has been a forerunner both on electricity market reform and renewable energy promotion, but that its influence is notable both directly through its emissions trading directive and more indirectly through signalling its intentions and long-term goals. Still, it appears that domestic developments, both cognitive and normative structures in the organizational field, and national policy change remain more instrumental determinants of the changed decision space. (Author)

  14. Influence of institutional culture and policies on do-not-resuscitate decision making at the end of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzeng, Elizabeth; Colaianni, Alessandra; Roland, Martin; Chander, Geetanjali; Smith, Thomas J; Kelly, Michael P; Barclay, Stephen; Levine, David

    2015-05-01

    Controversy exists regarding whether the decision to pursue a do-not-resuscitate (DNR) order should be grounded in an ethic of patient autonomy or in the obligation to act in the patient's best interest (beneficence). To explore how physicians' approaches to DNR decision making at the end of life are shaped by institutional cultures and policies surrounding patient autonomy. We performed semistructured in-depth qualitative interviews of 58 internal medicine physicians from 4 academic medical centers (3 in the United States and 1 in the United Kingdom) by years of experience and medical subspecialty from March 7, 2013, through January 8, 2014. Hospitals were selected based on expected differences in hospital culture and variations in hospital policies regarding prioritization of autonomy vs best interest. This study identified the key influences of institutional culture and policies on physicians' attitudes toward patient autonomy in DNR decision making at the end of life. A hospital's prioritization of autonomy vs best interest as reflected in institutional culture and policy appeared to influence the way that physician trainees conceptualized patient autonomy. This finding may have influenced the degree of choice and recommendations physician trainees were willing to offer regarding DNR decision making. Trainees at hospitals where policies and culture prioritized autonomy-focused approaches appeared to have an unreflective deference to autonomy and felt compelled to offer the choice of resuscitation neutrally in all situations regardless of whether they believed resuscitation to be clinically appropriate. In contrast, trainees at hospitals where policies and culture prioritized best-interest-focused approaches appeared to be more comfortable recommending against resuscitation in situations where survival was unlikely. Experienced physicians at all sites similarly did not exclusively allow their actions to be defined by policies and institutional culture and were

  15. The Felbertauern landslide of 2013: Traffic disruption, regional economic consequences and policy decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfurtscheller, Clemens; Genovese, Elisabetta

    2016-04-01

    The Felbertauern landslide of May 2013 caused the total destruction of approximately 100 meters of road including an avalanche gallery, generating several direct and indirect impacts on the regional-economy. The Felbertauern road, an important traffic arteria for the whole NUTS-3 region East-Tyrol (Austria), was totally blocked for several weeks. Short after the event, regional decision makers were hardly in need for an estimation of the regional-economic impacts of the road blockage to opt for alternatives to reopen the road. So, two weeks after the event, an analysis of the possible effects was carried out using only scattered information and statistical data. The analysis is based on a three-month interruption scenario. Retrospectively the road blockage was only two months. Due to the fact that short after the event no up-to-date data on regional-economics at necessary scales was available, impacts on tourism by analysing overnight stays, additional transportation costs and time losses for the local companies were calculated. Using these numbers, a cost-benefit-analysis was carried out for a projected bypass, a mid-term 1.5 kilometer long route as an alternative to the destroyed road. Finally, the impacts on the local companies were severe, due to additional transportation costs of approx. Euro 1.4 million and Euro 76 000 additional time costs using an alternative approach. The impacts on regional tourism were calculated with Euro 7.7 to 10.7 million - that means 0.6 to 0.8% of the total economic output of the region. The study shows the strong impact of indirect and business interruption costs on regional economies and describes the major problems faced during the study - in particular the low availability of input data. The results of consistent cost assessment are critical for decision makers who are responsible for the development of policies to prevent the impacts on societies.

  16. Democratic population decisions result in robust policy-gradient learning: a parametric study with GPU simulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Richmond

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available High performance computing on the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU is an emerging field driven by the promise of high computational power at a low cost. However, GPU programming is a non-trivial task and moreover architectural limitations raise the question of whether investing effort in this direction may be worthwhile. In this work, we use GPU programming to simulate a two-layer network of Integrate-and-Fire neurons with varying degrees of recurrent connectivity and investigate its ability to learn a simplified navigation task using a policy-gradient learning rule stemming from Reinforcement Learning. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we want to support the use of GPUs in the field of Computational Neuroscience. Second, using GPU computing power, we investigate the conditions under which the said architecture and learning rule demonstrate best performance. Our work indicates that networks featuring strong Mexican-Hat-shaped recurrent connections in the top layer, where decision making is governed by the formation of a stable activity bump in the neural population (a "non-democratic" mechanism, achieve mediocre learning results at best. In absence of recurrent connections, where all neurons "vote" independently ("democratic" for a decision via population vector readout, the task is generally learned better and more robustly. Our study would have been extremely difficult on a desktop computer without the use of GPU programming. We present the routines developed for this purpose and show that a speed improvement of 5x up to 42x is provided versus optimised Python code. The higher speed is achieved when we exploit the parallelism of the GPU in the search of learning parameters. This suggests that efficient GPU programming can significantly reduce the time needed for simulating networks of spiking neurons, particularly when multiple parameter configurations are investigated.

  17. Edufare for the future precariat: the moral agenda in Australia’s ‘earning or learning’ policy

    OpenAIRE

    Doherty, Catherine

    2017-01-01

    This paper considers the educational experience constructed under Australia’s policy decision in 2009 to extend compulsory education by requiring that students must be ‘earning or learning’ till 17 years of age. The discussion draws on an empirical project that explored the moral order operating in classrooms for students retained under this policy in non-academic pathways in high schools and Technical and Further Education colleges across three towns experiencing youth employment stress. It ...

  18. Decision Analysis and Policy Formulation for Technology-Specific Renewable Energy Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okioga, Irene Teshamulwa

    This study establishes a decision making procedure using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for a U.S. national renewable portfolio standard, and proposes technology-specific targets for renewable electricity generation for the country. The study prioritizes renewable energy alternatives based on a multi-perspective view: from the public, policy makers, and investors' points-of-view, and uses multiple criteria for ranking the alternatives to generate a unified prioritization scheme. During this process, it considers a 'quadruple bottom-line' approach (4P), i.e. reflecting technical "progress", social "people", economic 'profits", and environmental "planet" factors. The AHP results indicated that electricity generation from solar PV ranked highest, and biomass energy ranked lowest. A "Benefits/Cost Incentives/Mandates" (BCIM) model was developed to identify where mandates are needed, and where incentives would instead be required to bring down costs for technologies that have potential for profitable deployment. The BCIM model balances the development of less mature renewable energy technologies, without the potential for rising near-term electricity rates for consumers. It also ensures that recommended policies do not lead to growth of just one type of technology--the "highest-benefit, least-cost" technology. The model indicated that mandates would be suited for solar PV, and incentives generally for geothermal and concentrated solar power. Development for biomass energy, as a "low-cost, low-benefits" alternative was recommended at a local rather than national level, mainly due to its low resource potential values. Further, biomass energy generated from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) had the least resource potential compared to other biomass sources. The research developed methodologies and recommendations for biogas electricity targets at WWTPs, to take advantage of the waste-to-energy opportunities.

  19. Data policy and availability supporting global change research development, and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carroll, B.C.; Jack, R.F.; Cotter, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    An explosion of information has created a crisis for today's information age. We must determine how to use the best available information resources, tools, and technology. To do this, we need to have leadership at the interagency level to promote a coherent information policy. It is also important to find ways to educate the users of information regarding the tools available to them. This paper reports that advances in technology have resulted in efforts to shift from disciplinary and mission-oriented systems to decision support systems and personalized information systems. One such effort is being made by the Interagency Working Group on Data Management for Global Change (IWGDMGC). Five federal agencies - the Department of Commerce (DOC), Department of Energy (DOE), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Library of Medicine (NLM), and Department of Defense (DoD) - have an ongoing cooperative information management group, Commerce, Energy, NASA, NLM, and Defense Information (CENDI), that is meeting the challenge of coordinating and integrating its information management systems. Although it is beginning to be technically feasible to have a system with text, bibliographic, and numeric data on-line for the user to manipulate at the user's own workstation, promoting its full development will require national recognition that the resource investment in such a system is worthwhile. It also requires close cooperation between the producers and users of the information - that is, the research and policy community and the information community. National resources need to be mobilized in a coordinated manner to move us into the next generation of information support systems

  20. Implementing parallel spreadsheet models for health policy decisions: The impact of unintentional errors on model projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Stephanie L; Bono, Rose S; Nash, Denis; Kimmel, April D

    2018-01-01

    Spreadsheet software is increasingly used to implement systems science models informing health policy decisions, both in academia and in practice where technical capacity may be limited. However, spreadsheet models are prone to unintentional errors that may not always be identified using standard error-checking techniques. Our objective was to illustrate, through a methodologic case study analysis, the impact of unintentional errors on model projections by implementing parallel model versions. We leveraged a real-world need to revise an existing spreadsheet model designed to inform HIV policy. We developed three parallel versions of a previously validated spreadsheet-based model; versions differed by the spreadsheet cell-referencing approach (named single cells; column/row references; named matrices). For each version, we implemented three model revisions (re-entry into care; guideline-concordant treatment initiation; immediate treatment initiation). After standard error-checking, we identified unintentional errors by comparing model output across the three versions. Concordant model output across all versions was considered error-free. We calculated the impact of unintentional errors as the percentage difference in model projections between model versions with and without unintentional errors, using +/-5% difference to define a material error. We identified 58 original and 4,331 propagated unintentional errors across all model versions and revisions. Over 40% (24/58) of original unintentional errors occurred in the column/row reference model version; most (23/24) were due to incorrect cell references. Overall, >20% of model spreadsheet cells had material unintentional errors. When examining error impact along the HIV care continuum, the percentage difference between versions with and without unintentional errors ranged from +3% to +16% (named single cells), +26% to +76% (column/row reference), and 0% (named matrices). Standard error-checking techniques may not

  1. Rosneft, Gazprom and the Government: the Decision-Making Triangle on Russia's Energy Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baev, Pavel

    2014-03-01

    Russia finds itself exposed to many risks in the fast-moving global revolution in energy affairs, and cannot avail of its opportunities despite its unique combination of natural resources and experience in their exploitation. It has entered the phase of economic stagnation, and the under-performance of the energy sector is one of the key determinants of the durability of this trend. Energy export can no longer be wielded as a heavy-impact instrument of foreign policy, and the squabbles for shrinking oil and gas revenues form a key driver of the evolving crisis of the petro-authoritarian regime built by President Vladimir Putin. Escalating problems in the Russian energy sector are caused by the system of decision-making on oil and gas matters, in which Putin acts as a supreme arbiter in the flexible triangle formed by the government and two super-large state companies-Gazprom and Rosneft. It is the imperative of checking the decline of budget revenues that determines the priority in government policy of greater confiscation of profits and heavier taxation of the energy business. This squeeze on the interests of energy 'oligarchs' provokes them to appeal to Putin for tax breaks, which he is increasingly reluctant to grant, given the need to pursue an active social policy. The constant flow of insoluble issues makes Putin irritable and generally less engaged with the energy business than he used to be. Gazprom's notorious inefficiency in its core business emboldens competitors to capture greater shares of the domestic market and to demand exemptions from its export monopoly. Putin is loath to carry this political liability but remains reluctant to contemplate reforms that would amount to un-bundling of this conglomerate. Rosneft under the control of Igor Sechin has become the champion of the Russian oil industry, executing a series of acquisitions and signing a series of deals with Western 'majors'. Putin's benevolence is the key to the

  2. Neuroscience research on the addictions: a prospectus for future ethical and policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Wayne; Carter, Lucy; Morley, Katherine I

    2004-09-01

    The increasing evidence that many addictive phenomena have a genetic and neurobiological basis promises improvements in societal responses to addiction that raise important ethical and social policy issues. One of the major potential benefits of such research is improved treatment of drug addiction, but in order to do the research required to realize this promise, it will be necessary to address ethical doubts raised about the capacity of addicted persons to give free and informed consent to participate in studies that involve the administration of drugs of dependence. Neuroscience research on addiction promises to transform the long running debate between moral and medical models of addiction by providing a detailed causal explanation of addiction in terms of brain processes. We must avoid causal models of addiction being misinterpreted as supporting simple-minded social policies, e.g., that we identify the minority of the community that is genetically and biologically vulnerable to addiction and hence can neglect social policy options for reducing addiction, including drug control policies. Causal accounts of addiction supplied by neuroscience and genetic research may also be seen to warrant the use of pharmacotherapies and drug vaccines under legal coercion. Neuroscientists also need to anticipate the ethical issues that may arise if the knowledge that they produce delivers interventions that enhance human cognitive and other capacities. Advances in neuroimaging that enable us to identify "addicts" or predict future risk of addiction will raise concerns about invasion of privacy, third-party use of neuroimaging data, the powers of courts to coerce defendants to undergo such tests, and consumer protection against the overinterpretation of test results. Given the strong public and media interest in the results of their research, neuroscientists and geneticists have a moral obligation, and a professional interest, to minimize popular misunderstandings of their work

  3. A qualitative study of nulliparous women's decision making on mode of delivery under China's two-child policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Chunyi; Zhu, Xinli; Ding, Yan; Setterberg Simone; Wang, Xiaojiao; Tao, Hua; Zhang, Yu

    2018-07-01

    To explore nulliparous women's perceptions of decision making regarding mode of delivery under China's two-child policy. Qualitative descriptive design with in-depth semi-structured interviews. Postnatal wards at a tertiary specialized women's hospital in Shanghai, China. 21 nulliparous women 2-3 days postpartum were purposively sampled until data saturation. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted between October 8th, 2015 and January 31st, 2016. Two overarching descriptive categories were identified: (1) women's decision-making process: stability versus variability, and (2) factors affecting decision making: variety versus interactivity. Four key themes emerged from each category: (1) initial decision making with certainty: anticipated trial of labour, failed trial of labour, 'shy away' and compromise, anticipated caesarean delivery; (2) initial decision making with uncertainty: anticipated trial of labour, failed trial of labour, 'shy away' and compromise; (3) internal factors affecting decision making: knowledge and attitude, and childbirth self-efficacy; and (4) external factors affecting decision making: social support, and the situational environment. At the initial period of China's two-child policy, nulliparous women have perceived their decision-making process regarding mode of delivery as one with complexity and uncertainty, influenced by both internal and external factors. This may have implications for the obstetric setting to develop a well-designed decision support system for pregnant women during the entire pregnancy periods. And it is recommended that care providers should assess women's preferences for mode of delivery from early pregnancy and provide adequate perinatal support and continuity of care for them. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Prioritizing Congenital Syphilis Control in South China: A Decision Analytic Model to Inform Policy Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Nicholas X.; Rydzak, Chara; Yang, Li-Gang; Vickerman, Peter; Yang, Bin; Peeling, Rosanna W.; Hawkes, Sarah; Chen, Xiang-Sheng; Tucker, Joseph D.

    2013-01-01

    Background Syphilis is a major public health problem in many regions of China, with increases in congenital syphilis (CS) cases causing concern. The Chinese Ministry of Health recently announced a comprehensive 10-y national syphilis control plan focusing on averting CS. The decision analytic model presented here quantifies the impact of the planned strategies to determine whether they are likely to meet the goals laid out in the control plan. Methods and Findings Our model incorporated data on age-stratified fertility, female adult syphilis cases, and empirical syphilis transmission rates to estimate the number of CS cases associated with prenatal syphilis infection on a yearly basis. Guangdong Province was the focus of this analysis because of the availability of high-quality demographic and public health data. Each model outcome was simulated 1,000 times to incorporate uncertainty in model inputs. The model was validated using data from a CS intervention program among 477,656 women in China. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify which variables are likely to be most influential in achieving Chinese and international policy goals. Increasing prenatal screening coverage was the single most effective strategy for reducing CS cases. An incremental increase in prenatal screening from the base case of 57% coverage to 95% coverage was associated with 106 (95% CI: 101, 111) CS cases averted per 100,000 live births (58% decrease). The policy strategies laid out in the national plan led to an outcome that fell short of the target, while a four-pronged comprehensive syphilis control strategy consisting of increased prenatal screening coverage, increased treatment completion, earlier prenatal screening, and improved syphilis test characteristics was associated with 157 (95% CI: 154, 160) CS cases averted per 100,000 live births (85% decrease). Conclusions The Chinese national plan provides a strong foundation for syphilis control, but more comprehensive measures

  5. Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Wholesale Electricity Prices, and on Electric-Sector Decision Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seel, Joachim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mills, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wiser, Ryan H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Deb, Sidart [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States); Asokkumar, Aarthi [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States); Hassanzadeh, Mohammad [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States); Aarabali, Amirsaman [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States)

    2018-05-11

    Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels will still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE future. We qualitatively describe how various decisions may change with higher shares of VRE and outline an analytical framework for quantitatively evaluating the impacts of VRE on long-lasting decisions. We then present results from detailed electricity market simulations with capacity expansion and unit commitment models for multiple regions of the U.S. for low and high VRE futures. We find a general decrease in average annual hourly wholesale energy prices with more VRE penetration, increased price volatility and frequency of very low-priced hours, and changing diurnal price patterns. Ancillary service prices rise substantially and peak net-load hours with high capacity value are shifted increasingly into the evening, particularly for high solar futures. While in this report we only highlight qualitatively the possible impact of these altered price patterns on other demand- and supply-side electric sector decisions, the core set of electricity market prices derived here provides a foundation for later planned quantitative evaluations of these decisions in low and high VRE futures.

  6. Adoption of web-based group decision support systems: Experiences from the field and future developments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hillegersberg, Jos; Koenen, Sebastiaan

    2016-01-01

    While organizations have massively adopted enterprise information systems to support business processes, business meetings in which key decisions are made about products, services and processes, are usually held without much support of information systems. This is remarkable as group decision

  7. Factors in the dispersant use decision-making process : historical overview and look to the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Etkin, D.S.

    1998-01-01

    The history of chemical dispersant use in response to marine oil spills was reviewed. A series of case histories were presented to show the political, technical, and financial issues that have influenced the decision-making process and which are likely to influence dispersant use in the future. It was shown that response coordinators must consider the potential effectiveness of dispersant treatment and also the potential for environmental benefit or environmental damage. The safety and effectiveness of dispersant use were shown to depend on: (1) the type of oil or product spilled, (2) the amount of oil spilled, (3) the proximity to the shore and to sensitive habitats, (4) the weather and sea conditions at the time of the spill and during the response, (5) the types of dispersant chemicals on the market at the time of the spill, and (6) the potential efficiency of other cleanup methodologies available. It was noted that more than 37 per cent of the marine oil spills recorded in the Oil Spill Intelligence Report's international oil spill database involve the use of dispersants during the cleanup operations. 21 refs., 4 tabs

  8. A Lay Ethics Quest for Technological Futures: About Tradition, Narrative and Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Burg, Simone

    2016-01-01

    Making better choices about future technologies that are being researched or developed is an important motivator behind lay ethics interventions. However, in practice, they do not always succeed to serve that goal. Especially authors who have noted that lay ethicists sometimes take recourse to well-known themes which stem from old, even 'archetypical' stories, have been criticized for making too little room for agency and decision-making in their approach. This paper aims to contribute to a reflection on how lay ethics can acquire more practical relevance. It will use resources in narrative ethics to suggest that in order to be relevant for action, facilitators of lay ethics interventions need to invite participants to engage in a narrative quest. As part of a quest, lay ethicists should be asked to (1) reflect on a specific question or choice, (2) use diverse (imaginative) input which is informative about the heterogeneity of viewpoints that are defended in society and (3) argue for their standpoints.

  9. Building Energy Consumption Pattern Analysis of Detached Housing for the Policy Decision Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Jiyoun; Lee, Seung-Eon

    2018-03-01

    The Korean government announced its plan to raise the previous reduction goal of greenhouse gas emission from buildings by 26.9% until 2020 on July 2015. Therefore, policies regarding efficiency in the building energy are implemented fast, but the level of building owners and market understanding is low in general, and the government service system which supports decision making for implementing low-energy buildings has not been provided yet. The purpose of this study is to present the design direction for establishing user customized building energy database to perform a role to provide autonomous ecosystem of low-energy buildings. In order to reduce energy consumption in buildings, it is necessary to carry out the energy performance analysis based on the characteristics of target building. By analysing about 20-thousand cases of the amount of housing energy consumption in Korea, this study suggested the real energy consumption pattern by building types. Also, the energy performance of a building could be determined by energy consumption, but previous building energy consumption analysis programs required expert knowledge and experience in program usage, so it was difficult for normal building users to use such programs. Therefore, a measure to provide proper default using the level of data which general users with no expert knowledge regarding building energy could enter easily was suggested in this study.

  10. Citizen participation in patient prioritization policy decisions: an empirical and experimental study on patients' characteristics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adele Diederich

    Full Text Available Health systems worldwide are grappling with the need to control costs to maintain system viability. With the combination of worsening economic conditions, an aging population and reductions in tax revenues, the pressures to make structural changes are expected to continue growing. Common cost control mechanisms, e.g. curtailment of patient access and treatment prioritization, are likely to be adversely viewed by citizens. It seems therefore wise to include them in the decision making processes that lead up to policy changes. In the context of a multilevel iterative mixed-method design a quantitative survey representative of the German population (N = 2031 was conducted to probe the acceptance of priority setting in medicine and to explore the practicability of direct public involvement. Here we focus on preferences for patients' characteristics (medical aspects, lifestyle and socio-economic status as possible criteria for prioritizing medical services. A questionnaire with closed response options was fielded to gain insight into attitudes toward broad prioritization criteria of patient groups. Furthermore, a discrete choice experiment was used as a rigorous approach to investigate citizens' preferences toward specific criteria level in context of other criteria. Both the questionnaire and the discrete choice experiment were performed with the same sample. The citizens' own health and social situation are included as explanatory variables. Data were evaluated using corresponding analysis, contingency analysis, logistic regression and a multinomial exploded logit model. The results show that some medical criteria are highly accepted for prioritizing patients whereas socio-economic criteria are rejected.

  11. Citizen participation in patient prioritization policy decisions: an empirical and experimental study on patients' characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diederich, Adele; Swait, Joffre; Wirsik, Norman

    2012-01-01

    Health systems worldwide are grappling with the need to control costs to maintain system viability. With the combination of worsening economic conditions, an aging population and reductions in tax revenues, the pressures to make structural changes are expected to continue growing. Common cost control mechanisms, e.g. curtailment of patient access and treatment prioritization, are likely to be adversely viewed by citizens. It seems therefore wise to include them in the decision making processes that lead up to policy changes. In the context of a multilevel iterative mixed-method design a quantitative survey representative of the German population (N = 2031) was conducted to probe the acceptance of priority setting in medicine and to explore the practicability of direct public involvement. Here we focus on preferences for patients' characteristics (medical aspects, lifestyle and socio-economic status) as possible criteria for prioritizing medical services. A questionnaire with closed response options was fielded to gain insight into attitudes toward broad prioritization criteria of patient groups. Furthermore, a discrete choice experiment was used as a rigorous approach to investigate citizens' preferences toward specific criteria level in context of other criteria. Both the questionnaire and the discrete choice experiment were performed with the same sample. The citizens' own health and social situation are included as explanatory variables. Data were evaluated using corresponding analysis, contingency analysis, logistic regression and a multinomial exploded logit model. The results show that some medical criteria are highly accepted for prioritizing patients whereas socio-economic criteria are rejected.

  12. The application of system dynamics modelling to environmental health decision-making and policy - a scoping review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Danielle J; Smith, Carl; Jagals, Paul

    2018-03-27

    Policy and decision-making processes are routinely challenged by the complex and dynamic nature of environmental health problems. System dynamics modelling has demonstrated considerable value across a number of different fields to help decision-makers understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of complex systems in support the development of effective policy actions. In this scoping review we investigate if, and in what contexts, system dynamics modelling is being used to inform policy or decision-making processes related to environmental health. Four electronic databases and the grey literature were systematically searched to identify studies that intersect the areas environmental health, system dynamics modelling, and decision-making. Studies identified in the initial screening were further screened for their contextual, methodological and application-related relevancy. Studies deemed 'relevant' or 'highly relevant' according to all three criteria were included in this review. Key themes related to the rationale, impact and limitation of using system dynamics in the context of environmental health decision-making and policy were analysed. We identified a limited number of relevant studies (n = 15), two-thirds of which were conducted between 2011 and 2016. The majority of applications occurred in non-health related sectors (n = 9) including transportation, public utilities, water, housing, food, agriculture, and urban and regional planning. Applications were primarily targeted at micro-level (local, community or grassroots) decision-making processes (n = 9), with macro-level (national or international) decision-making to a lesser degree. There was significant heterogeneity in the stated rationales for using system dynamics and the intended impact of the system dynamics model on decision-making processes. A series of user-related, technical and application-related limitations and challenges were identified. None of the reported limitations or challenges

  13. Multicriteria-based decision aiding technique for assessing energy policy elements-demonstration to a case in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahman, Md. Mizanur; Paatero, Jukka V.; Lahdelma, Risto; Wahid, Mazlan A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A multicriteria technique for assessing energy policy elements has been proposed. • Energy policy elements have been examined based on assigned criteria. • This assessment gives results which are representative of all stakeholders. • Policy elements which are chosen by this method promote sustainability. - Abstract: The adverse environmental consequences and diminishing trend of fossil fuel reserves indicate a serious need for vibrant and judicious energy policy. Energy policy involves a number of stakeholders, and needs to incorporate the interests and requirements of all the key stakeholder groups. This paper presents a methodological technique to assist with formulating, evaluating, and promoting the energy policy of a country in a transparent and representative way with clear scientific justifications and balanced assessments. The multicriteria decision analysis approach has been a widely used technique for evaluating different alternatives based on the interests of a multitude of stakeholders, and goals. This paper utilizes the SMAA (Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis) tool, which can evaluate different alternatives by incorporating multiple criteria, in order to examine the preferences of different policy elements. We further extend this technique by incorporating the LEAP model (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) to assess the emission impacts of different policy elements. We demonstrate the application of this evaluation technique by an analysis of four hypothetical policy elements namely Business-as usual (BAU), Renewables (REN), Renewable-biomass only (REN-b), and Energy conservation and efficient technologies (ECET). These are applied to the case of sharing fuel sources for power generation for the Bangladesh power sector. We found that the REN-b and REN policy elements were the best and second best alternatives with 41% and 32% acceptability respectively. This technique gives transparent information for

  14. Applying air pollution modelling within a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to evaluate UK air quality policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalabi, Zaid; Milojevic, Ai; Doherty, Ruth M.; Stevenson, David S.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Milner, James; Vieno, Massimo; Williams, Martin; Wilkinson, Paul

    2017-10-01

    A decision support system for evaluating UK air quality policies is presented. It combines the output from a chemistry transport model, a health impact model and other impact models within a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework. As a proof-of-concept, the MCDA framework is used to evaluate and compare idealized emission reduction policies in four sectors (combustion in energy and transformation industries, non-industrial combustion plants, road transport and agriculture) and across six outcomes or criteria (mortality, health inequality, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, crop yield and air quality legal compliance). To illustrate a realistic use of the MCDA framework, the relative importance of the criteria were elicited from a number of stakeholders acting as proxy policy makers. In the prototype decision problem, we show that reducing emissions from industrial combustion (followed very closely by road transport and agriculture) is more advantageous than equivalent reductions from the other sectors when all the criteria are taken into account. Extensions of the MCDA framework to support policy makers in practice are discussed.

  15. State of the environment reporting (SOER) and the policy process in South Africa: Learing for the future

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Will, C

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental policy and decision making has undergone several changes in recent times, and in today’s society is influenced by amongst others two key movements; the rise of an informational society and the increasing priority of environmental...

  16. Climate policies in China, India and Brazil: current issues and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bellevrat, Elie

    2012-07-01

    Emerging countries will have to tackle different social and economic development challenges in the future, which translate nationally into the concepts of 'harmonious society' in China and 'inclusive growth' in India, and into the Brazilian slogan 'a wealthy country is a country without poverty'. Per capita (current US$), Brazil is more than two times richer than China, which in turn is three times richer than India. This graduation explains the variety of priorities of those countries: reducing inequalities and achieving the development processes in China and Brazil, alleviating poverty and enhancing energy access in India. Furthermore, these countries are increasingly linked internationally, along with the globalization process. Energy security is a key issue for China and India, while Brazil aims at playing a key role on future international energy markets. Emerging economies are progressively laying the foundations for low-carbon development strategies that will depend on their national contexts and priorities. Investments in building and transport infrastructures are increasingly important in all those countries, creating the conditions today for tomorrow's low-carbon economic development. China recently made important resolutions in the framework of its 12. Five-Year Plan, decoupling economic growth from GHG emissions. India has developed eight 'National Missions' on climate change and is now exploring future low-carbon strategies. And Brazil is affirming its position internationally, pushing for innovative 'green growth' concepts, within the framework of the Rio+20 Conference. All countries have already implemented several energy and climate policies and plan to develop them further, through innovative policy institutions and instruments. They are switching progressively from command- and-control to economic instruments. In particular, market-based mechanisms are increasingly used in all countries: mandatory pilot Emission Trading Systems (ETS) in China

  17. Elder Financial Exploitation: Implications for Future Policy and Research in Elder Mistreatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Price, Thomas

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent advances in the understanding of elder mistreatment have demonstrated that financial exploitation tends to be one of the most common forms of mistreatment affecting older populations. Agencies such as the World Bank and World Health Organization show significant concern regarding financial exploitation and its connection to physical and emotional injury to victims. The World Bank uses the term “financial violence” as a means of generally describing the harm caused to an individual as a result of financial exploitation or abuse. The proportion of financial exploitation in relation to other forms of elder mistreatment is defined in our research. We discuss the potential impact of elder financial exploitation on victims as well as explore the implications for future research and policy development focused on financial aspects of elder mistreatment and call for further study in the concept of financial exploitation as a violent act. [West J Emerg Med. 2011;12(3:354-356.

  18. CONSOLIDATION POLICY: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE APPROACHES TO THE CONCEPT OF CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ienciu Alin Ionel

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Preparing consolidated financial statements has been a common practice for groups of companies around the world for a relatively long time, going back one century in the USA and tens of years in different European countries.A far-reaching issue regarding consolidation accounting policy is the concept of control, as it holds a crucial role in determining the basis of consolidation and the applicable method of consolidation and subsequently in influencing the content of the group financial statements. We focus in our article on the concept of exclusive control as it is approached by the relevant International, American and European standards, casting light also on possible future developments of this concept. The objective of our study is to acknowledge the differences and similarities between the approaches to the control concept, closing with the presentation of the influences of these approaches on the basis of consolidation.

  19. Canada's implementation of the Paragraph 6 Decision: is it sustainable public policy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cosio Andre

    2007-12-01

    needs of their population, including developing their own capacity and local industries. Conclusion CAMR is symbolically meaningful but in practice, limited. The Rwanda case will be noteworthy in terms of the future of the legislation. To meet its intended international health objectives, this legislation needs to be better informed of developing country needs and global pharmaceutical market imperatives. Finally, we contend that serious public policy change cannot strike a balance between all vested interests. Above all, any feasible policy that aims to facilitate compulsory licensing must prioritize public health over trade or economic interests.

  20. Future Greenhouse Gas and Local Pollutant Emissions for India: Policy Links and Disjoints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garg, A. [Project Management Cell, NATCOM Project, Winrock International India, 7, Poorvi Marg, Vasant Vihar, New Delhi - 110057 (India); Shukla, P.R. [Public Systems Group, Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015 (India); Ghosh, D. [Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University (United States); Kapshe, M.; Rajesh, N. [Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015 (India)

    2003-07-01

    This paper estimates the future greenhouse gas (GHG) and local pollutant emissions for India under various scenarios. The reference scenario assumes continuation of the current official policies of the Indian government and forecasts of macro-economic, demographic and energy sector indicators. Other scenarios analyzed are the economic growth scenarios (high and low), carbon mitigation scenario, sulfur mitigation scenario and frozen (development) scenario. The main insight is that GHG and local pollutant emissions from India, although connected, do not move in synchronization in future and have a disjoint under various scenarios. GHG emissions continue to rise while local pollutant emissions decrease after some years. GHG emission mitigation therefore would have to be pursued for its own sake in India. National energy security concerns also favor this conclusion since coal is the abundant national resource while most of the natural gas has to be imported. The analysis of contributing factors to this disjoint indicates that sulfur reduction in petroleum oil products and penetration of flue gas desulfurisation technologies are the two main contributors for sulfur dioxide (SO2) mitigation. The reduction in particulate emissions is mainly due to enforcing electro-static precipitator efficiency norms in industrial units, with cleaner fuels and vehicles also contributing substantially. These policy trends are already visible in India. Another insight is that high economic growth is better than lower growth to mitigate local pollution as lack of investible resources limits investments in cleaner environmental measures. Our analysis also validates the environmental Kuznets' curve for India as SO2 emissions peak around per capita GDP of US$ 5,300-5,400 (PPP basis) under various economic growth scenarios.

  1. Estimating bounds on the macroeconomic effects of the Clean Energy Future policy scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanstad, A. H.; DeCanio, S. J.; Boyd, G. A.

    2000-04-04

    The Clean Energy Future (CEF) is a partial equilibrium study in that it focuses specifically on markets for energy services. It is also important, however, to consider potential effects of the CEF policies on overall economic performance. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to provide a framework for interpreting the macroeconomic (or second-order) effects that might occur under the types of scenarios analyzed in the CEF, and (2) to obtain a range of estimates of these effects associated with the Moderate and Advanced scenarios as described in the CEF study. In this paper the authors consider results from both types of model in the context of the CEF study. The primary framework and calculations focus on the second meaning given above of the term macroeconomic and the associated CGE models, because these are appropriate for analysis on the time scales of the CEF, through 2010 or 2020. Because the Keynesian-style macroeconomic models are designed and suited for short-term forecasting, they also discuss the application of one such model to the analysis of the shorter-horizon effects of certain policies to reduce carbon emissions.

  2. What defines 'enough' information? How policy workers make judgements and decisions during information seeking: preliminary results from an exploratory study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.M. Berryman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Reports findings from research in progress investigating judgment and decision making during information seeking in the workplace, in particular, the assessment of enough information. Characteristics of this judgment and the role of context in shaping it are framed against theories of human judgment and decision making. Method. Thirty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted with public sector policy workers in Australia. Two interviews were carried out, the first with individual participants and the second, a joint interview with two participants. Interviews were taped and transcribed and inductive data analysis carried out. Findings. Findings discussed in this paper focus on contextual factors that frame policy workers' judgment and decision making while information seeking, factors including ill-structured problems, shifting goals, time stress and action-feedback loops. Also revealed was the importance of developing a framework, against which the judgment of enough information can be made, and the fluid and iterative nature of these judgments. Conclusion. The contextual factors reported show similarities with those identified by naturalistic decision making researchers, suggesting this new field of decision theory has much to offer researchers into information seeking in context.

  3. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the annual cycle: Linking policy alternatives, landowner decisions, and biological population outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drum, Ryan G.; Ribic, Christine; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Grant, Edward C.; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, D.C.; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David W.

    2015-01-01

    Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

  4. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan G Drum

    Full Text Available Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

  5. Making decisions based on an imperfect ensemble of climate simulators: strategies and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, B. M.

    2017-12-01

    The CMIP ensembles represent the most comprehensive source of information available to decision-makers for climate adaptation, yet it is clear that there are fundamental limitations in our ability to treat the ensemble as an unbiased sample of possible future climate trajectories. There is considerable evidence that models are not independent, and increasing complexity and resolution combined with computational constraints prevent a thorough exploration of parametric uncertainty or internal variability. Although more data than ever is available for calibration, the optimization of each model is influenced by institutional priorities, historical precedent and available resources. The resulting ensemble thus represents a miscellany of climate simulators which defy traditional statistical interpretation. Models are in some cases interdependent, but are sufficiently complex that the degree of interdependency is conditional on the application. Configurations have been updated using available observations to some degree, but not in a consistent or easily identifiable fashion. This means that the ensemble cannot be viewed as a true posterior distribution updated by available data, but nor can observational data alone be used to assess individual model likelihood. We assess recent literature for combining projections from an imperfect ensemble of climate simulators. Beginning with our published methodology for addressing model interdependency and skill in the weighting scheme for the 4th US National Climate Assessment, we consider strategies for incorporating process-based constraints on future response, perturbed parameter experiments and multi-model output into an integrated framework. We focus on a number of guiding questions: Is the traditional framework of confidence in projections inferred from model agreement leading to biased or misleading conclusions? Can the benefits of upweighting skillful models be reconciled with the increased risk of truth lying outside the

  6. Environmental radiation protection-future challenges with regard to science and decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsson, C. M.

    2004-01-01

    With Publication 91 on the impact of ionizing radiation on non-human species, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has taken a major step towards the integration of environmental issues into radiological protection. The conceptual framework has developed in response to public demand and concern for environmental issues, and is underpinned by technical development undertaken by several organisations at both national and international levels. The EC-funded FASSET project (Framework for Assessment of Environmental Impact), completed in 2004, has developed an assessment framework that includes: source characterisation and initial hazard analysis; ecosystem description and selection of reference organisms; exposure analysis including conversion to dose rates; effects analysis; and, guidance for interpretation. On the basis of experience from FASSET and other recent developments, it can be concluded that (i) there is substantial agreement in terms of conceptual approaches between different frameworks currently in use being or proposed, and that (ii) differences in technical approaches can be largely attributed to differences in ecosystems of concern or in national regulatory requirements. A major future challenge is the development of an integrated approach where decision-making can be guided by sound scientific judgements. This requires, inter alia: filling gaps in basic knowledge of relevance to assessment and protection, through targeted experimental, theoretical (including expert judgements) and real case studies; development of risk characterisation methodologies; development of screening standards, where appropriate; development of user-friendly assessment tools; and, stakeholder involvement, including the development of supporting communication strategies. These issues will be addressed in the ERICA project (Environmental Risks from Ionizing Contaminants Assessment and Management) launched under the EC 6th Framework Programme during the

  7. Policy proceses, principles and decision making of the environmental policy in Great Britain and France. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schreiber, H.

    1991-01-01

    Research of central aspects of French environmental policy. This report concentrates on the role of the constitutional system and the influence of ecological topics on the politics of the central level. The implementation of central environmental topics of lower levels - regional departmental and communal level. Presentation of the state of the French environment (Pollution: Air, Water, Waste, Soil, Radiactivity and Noise). Beyond that this report evaluates French positions and activities of environmental policy on EEC-level and worldwide. Finally the bilateral cooperation on the field of environmental protection between France and the Federal Republic of Germany is analyzed. (orig.) With 31 refs., 12 tabs., 3 figs [de

  8. The Influence of Future Command, Control, Communications, and Computers (C4) on Doctrine and the Operational Commander's Decision-Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, Michael G.

    1996-01-01

    Future C4 systems will alter the traditional balance between force and information, having a profound influence on doctrine and the operational commander's decision making process. The Joint Staff's future vision of C4 is conceptualized in 'C4I for the Warrior' which envisions a joint C4I architecture providing timely sensor to shoot information direct to the warfighter. C4 system must manage and filter an overwhelming amount of information; deal with interoperability issues; overcome technological limitations; meet emerging security requirements; and protect against 'Information Warfare.' Severe budget constraints necessitate unified control of C4 systems under singular leadership for the common good of all the services. In addition, acquisition policy and procedures must be revamped to allow new technologies to be fielded quickly; and the commercial marketplace will become the preferred starting point for modernization. Flatter command structures are recommended in this environment where information is available instantaneously. New responsibilities for decision making at lower levels are created. Commanders will have to strike a balance between exerting greater control and allowing subordinates enough flexibility to maintain initiative. Clearly, the commander's intent remains the most important tool in striking this balance.

  9. An Introspective Critique of Past, Present, and Future USGS Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neff, B. P.; Pavlick, M.

    2017-12-01

    In response to increasing scrutiny of publicly funded science, the Water Mission Area of USGS is shifting its approach for informing decisions that affect the country. Historically, USGS has focused on providing sound science on cutting edge, societally relevant issues with the expectation that decision makers will take action on this information. In practice, scientists often do not understand or focus on the needs of decision makers and decision makers often cannot or do not utilize information produced by scientists. The Water Mission Area of USGS has recognized that it can better serve the taxpayer by delivering information more relevant to decision making in a form more conducive to its use. To this end, the Water Mission Area of USGS is seeking greater integration with the decision making process to better inform what information it produces. In addition, recognizing that the transfer of scientific knowledge to decision making is fundamentally a social process, USGS is embracing the use of social science to better inform how it delivers scientific information and facilitates its use. This study utilizes qualitative methods to document the evolution of decision support at USGS and provide a rationale for a shift in direction. Challenges to implementation are identified and collaborative opportunities to improve decision making are discussed.

  10. Assessing the Atmospheric Pollution of Energy Facilities for Supporting Energy Policy Decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meneses Ruiz, E.; Alonso García, D.; Pérez Zayas, G.; Piñera Hernández, I.; Martinez Varona, M.; Molina Esquivel, E.

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of different energy facilities on the environment and human health are a matter of interest and concern throughout the world. For example, fossil fuels are one of the energy sources of more undesirable effects on the environment, but this energy is still one of the most competitive at the market, especially for the developing countries. However, it is necessary to find out a balance between the costs of achieving a lower level of environmental and health injury and the benefits of providing electricity at a reasonable cost. With a view to solving the current deficit in energy production (mainly in electricity generation) in the light of major transformations in the energy sector, the Cuban Government is evaluating ways of incorporating new sources and technologies and the expansion of existing capabilities. In this context non-fossil energy sources will play an increasingly important role. The present work shows the results obtained in the frame of the IAEA Technical Cooperation Project CUB7007. The project integrated several tools and methodologies in the field of air quality modelling and its assessment, emissions measurement and nuclear techniques. The main objective was to assess atmospheric pollution from various energy facilities for supporting energy policy decisions by incorporating nuclear techniques (proton-induced X–ray emission, neutron activation and X–ray fluorescence) for estimating the elementary composition of particulate matter. As results were consolidated national laboratories in the application of nuclear and nonnuclear techniques to support environmental studies, especially for the analysis of emissions in chimneys and ambient air sampling. Moreover, all energy technologies considered in the national strategy of development were assessed. (author)

  11. Government Accountability Reports and Public Education Policy: Studying Political Actors' Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar, Timothy Ross

    2013-01-01

    This study asks how government accountability reports are used to influence public education policy. Government accountability reports, called "audits" in Utah, prove to be useful tools for examining education policy. Using a collective case study design examining Utah's Class Size Reduction (CSR) policy, government accountability…

  12. Future fertility for individuals with differences of sex development: Parent attitudes and perspectives about decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Emilie K; Rosoklija, Ilina; Shurba, Angela; D'Oro, Anthony; Gordon, Elisa J; Chen, Diane; Finlayson, Courtney; Holl, Jane L

    2017-08-01

    Children, adolescents, and young adults (children/youth) with differences/disorders of sex development (DSD) face challenges related to future fertility; this may be due to variations in gonadal development, and, for some, gonadectomy performed to reduce the risk of malignancy. Childhood may be the only time for preservation of biological fertility potential for children/youth who undergo gonadectomy or have early gonadal failure. Fertility-related decision-making for these patients is particularly complicated, due to the need for parental proxy decision-making, potential discordance between gender identity and gonadal type, and uncertain future assisted reproductive technologies. This study aimed to assess: (1) attitudes regarding future fertility, and (2) healthcare needs for fertility-related decision-making among parents of children/youth with DSD. Semi-structured qualitative interviews about future fertility were conducted with parents of children/youth with DSD. Parents who had never discussed fertility with a healthcare provider were excluded. Grounded theory methodology was used to identify emergent themes and patterns. Demographics and clinical characteristics were assessed via survey and medical chart review. Nineteen parents were interviewed (participation rate: 60%, 14 mothers/5 fathers, median patient age at diagnosis 6 months (range 0-192), eight DSD diagnoses). The most common emergent themes are summarized in the Summary Table. Most parents identified fertility as a key concern, both at time of diagnosis and throughout development. Parents expressed difficulty with timing of disclosure about potential infertility to their children. Multiple preferences related to medical decision-making about future fertility and fertility preservation were expressed, including: a desire for step-by-step decision-making, and use of medically vetted information and research to guide decisions. This qualitative study provided new information about the perspectives of

  13. The End of the Deterrence Paradigm? Future Directions for Global Refugee Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen

    2017-02-01

    , recognizing this as a case of possible paradigm change may help guide and structure this process. In particular, any successful new policy approach would have to address the fundamental challenges facing the old paradigm. The paper proceeds in four parts. Firstly, it traces the rise of the deterrence paradigm following the end of the Cold War and the demise of ideologically driven refugee protection on the part of states in the Global North. The past 30 years have seen the introduction and dynamic development of manifold deterrence policies to stymie the irregular arrival of  asylum seekers and migrants. This array of measures is explored in the second part of the paper through a typology of five current practices that today make up “normal policymaking” within the deterrence regime. Third, the paper argues that the current paradigm is under threat, facing challenges to its legality from within refugee and human rights law; to its sustainability due to the increasing unhappiness of refugee-hosting states with current levels of “burden-sharing”; and to its effectiveness as direct and indirect costs of maintaining the regime mount. Finally, the paper puts forward three core principles that can lay the groundwork in the event of a paradigm shift: respect for international refugee law; meaningful burden-sharing; and a broader notion of refugee protection that encompasses livelihoods and increased preparedness in anticipation of future refugee flows.

  14. Policies for Resource Efficient and Effective Solutions : A review of concepts, current policy landscape and future policy considerations for the transition to a Circular Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Milios, Leonidas

    2016-01-01

    This report presents basic concepts around resources, resource efficiency and the Circular Economy. The limitations and the opportunities within the Circular Economy are identified and clearly presented. The current policy landscape in the EU as well as in Sweden is thoroughly analysed and a set of policy areas with a significant untapped potential for resource efficiency is identified. The policy areas which have been underutilised so far include policies for re-use, repair and remanufacturi...

  15. People, Process, and Policy: Case Studies in National Security Advising, the National Security Council, and Presidential Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    confirmation of Lake’s concerns with the administration’s public relations failures, David Gergen, the president’s communications advisor, increased... Public Affairs: 389-395. 75 these positions, he did not openly object too them during the campaign. Additionally, as this case study shows, he...PEOPLE, PROCESS, AND POLICY: CASE STUDIES IN NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISING, THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL, AND PRESIDENTIAL DECISION MAKING

  16. Present supply and demand on the world uranium market and decision of the nuclear fuel cycle policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Luqing

    1994-01-01

    The present supply and demand relationship on the world uranium market due to the change of international situation in the last years is described and the falling price on the world uranium market is estimated. It is pointed out that the falling price would continue for a long time. Based on it the three different policy decisions on the back-end of nuclear fuel cycle are analysed

  17. Towards a Unified Conceptualization of Reshoring and Insourcing Decisions and Directions for Future Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foerstl, Kai; Kirchoff, Jon; Bals, Lydia

    Recently the reshoring and insourcing decisions are widely discussed within the Purchasing and Supply Management community. With this study we conceptualize the two phenomena in a unified framework and provide grounded theory on their joint and respective drivers. Based on these findings we......, and opportunities to further study organizational readiness and the decision making process and its actors....

  18. Effects of episodic future thinking on discounting: Personalized age-progressed pictures improve risky long-term health decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Brent A; Reed, Derek D; Jarmolowicz, David P

    2016-03-01

    Many everyday choices are associated with both delayed and probabilistic outcomes. The temporal attention hypothesis suggests that individuals' decision making can be improved by focusing attention on temporally distal events and implies that environmental manipulations that bring temporally distal outcomes into focus may alter an individual's degree of discounting. One such manipulation, episodic future thinking, has shown to lower discount rates; however, several questions remain about the applicability of episodic future thinking to domains other than delay discounting. The present experiments examine the effects of a modified episodic-future-thinking procedure in which participants viewed age-progressed computer-generated images of themselves and answered questions related to their future, on probability discounting in the context of both a delayed health gain and loss. Results indicate that modified episodic future thinking effectively altered individuals' degree of discounting in the predicted directions and demonstrate the applicability of episodic future thinking to decision making of socially significant outcomes. © 2015 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  19. Linking Science and Management in an Interactive Geospatial, Mutli-Criterion, Structured Decision Support Framework: Use Case Studies of the "Future Forests Geo-visualization and Decision Support Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pontius, J.; Duncan, J.

    2017-12-01

    Land managers are often faced with balancing management activities to accomplish a diversity of management objectives, in systems faced with many stress agents. Advances in ecosystem modeling provide a rich source of information to inform management. Coupled with advances in decision support techniques and computing capabilities, interactive tools are now accessible for a broad audience of stakeholders. Here we present one such tool designed to capture information on how climate change may impact forested ecosystems, and how that impact varies spatially across the landscape. This tool integrates empirical models of current and future forest structure and function in a structured decision framework that allows users to customize weights for multiple management objectives and visualize suitability outcomes across the landscape. Combined with climate projections, the resulting products allow stakeholders to compare the relative success of various management objectives on a pixel by pixel basis and identify locations where management outcomes are most likely to be met. Here we demonstrate this approach with the integration of several of the preliminary models developed to map species distributions, sugar maple health, forest fragmentation risk and hemlock vulnerability to hemlock woolly adelgid under current and future climate scenarios. We compare three use case studies with objective weightings designed to: 1) Identify key parcels for sugarbush conservation and management, 2) Target state lands that may serve as hemlock refugia from hemlock woolly adelgid induced mortality, and 3) Examine how climate change may alter the success of managing for both sugarbush and hemlock across privately owned lands. This tool highlights the value of flexible models that can be easily run with customized weightings in a dynamic, integrated assessment that allows users to hone in on their potentially complex management objectives, and to visualize and prioritize locations across the

  20. Cancer beliefs and prevention policies: comparing Canadian decision-maker and general population views.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nykiforuk, Candace I J; Wild, T Cameron; Raine, Kim D

    2014-12-01

    The knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs of key policy influencers and the general public can support or hinder the development of public policies that support cancer prevention. To address gaps in knowledge concerning healthy public policy development, views on cancer causation and endorsement of policy alternatives for cancer prevention among government influencers (elected members of legislative assemblies and senior ministry bureaucrats), non-governmental influencers (school board chairs and superintendents, print media editors and reporters, and workplace presidents and senior human resource managers), and the general public were compared. Two structured surveys, one administered to a convenience sample of policy influencers (government and non-governmental) and the other to a randomly selected sample of the general public, were used. The aim of these surveys was to understand knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs regarding health promotion principles and the priority and acceptability of policy actions to prevent four behavioral risk factors for cancer (tobacco use, alcohol misuse, unhealthy eating, and physical inactivity). Surveys were administered in Alberta and Manitoba, two comparable Canadian provinces. Although all groups demonstrated higher levels of support for individualistic policies (e.g., health education campaigns) than for fiscal and legislative measures, the general public expressed consistently greater support than policy influencers for using evidence-based policies (e.g., tax incentives or subsidies for healthy behaviors). These results suggest that Canadian policy influencers may be less open that the general public to adopt healthy public policies for cancer prevention, with potential detriment to cancer rates.

  1. Science-policy interface in transformative adaptive flood risk management - decision-making in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaler, Thomas; Attems, Marie-Sophie; Rauter, Magdalena; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this paper aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this paper focussed on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. This paper used the Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) as a method to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a system and its potential future development, based on qualitatively assessed impact factors and rated quantitative relations between these factors, such as impact and consistency analysis. The purpose of this approach was to develop scenarios, where participations develop their own strategies how to implement a transformative adaptation strategy in flood risk management. In particular, the interaction between researcher, the public and policy makers was analysed. Challenges and limitations were assessed, such as benefits on costs of adaptation measures, for the implementation of visions to

  2. Political life and half-life: the future formulation of nuclear waste public policy in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroy, David

    2006-11-01

    The United States continues to need forward-thinking and revised public policy to assure safe nuclear waste disposal. Both the high- and low-level disposal plans enacted by Congress in the 1980's have been frustrated by practical and political interventions. In the interim, ad hoc solutions and temporary fixes have emerged as de facto policy. Future statutory, regulatory, and administrative guidance will likely be less bold, more narrowly focused, and adopted at lower levels of government, more informally, in contrast to the top-down, statutory policies of the 1980's.

  3. Fifteen year's research activities of the INSS Institute of Nuclear Technology and future policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Itsuro

    2008-01-01

    Fifteen years have passed since the Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Incorporated (INSS) was founded. This paper reviews the research activities of the Institute of Nuclear Technology in INSS over that time and proposes a policy for future research. First, a chronological table shows the major milestones over the past fifteen years. Notable events include the following. The head office was moved to Mihama-cho where laboratories and experimental facilities were installed; the Institute signed an agreement with the Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. (KEPCO) on assistance for the preparedness of nuclear emergency; it assisted KEPCO to investigate the causes of the accident at its Mihama Nuclear Power Station Unit 3 and subsequently established the Nuclear Power Plant Aging Research Center, it began providing information on adverse events occurred at nuclear power plants in the world to Japanese electric utilities that own PWRs; it supported the Energy Research and Development Centralization Plan of Fukui Prefecture, and it embarked on a project to develop the Fukui regional cluster in the Fukui and Kinki area under the government's program for aging management of nuclear power plants. The fifteen years of research activities are shown for each research group and for each research project, and then important achievements of the major research projects are described. Finally, the status of research papers published in external Journals and in INSS over the past fifteen years is illustrated and the number of patents acquired during this period is presented. We evaluated our research activities over the fifteen years and reviewed them according to seven items under a future research policy. The plans include the enhancement of system engineering-based research efforts as the name of this Institute implies, and committing ourselves to forward-looking and creative research program focusing on not only from analysis', but also on 'synthesis'. A suitable approach to safety

  4. Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

    2016-04-01

    Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing

  5. Cognitive Adaptability: The Role of Metacognition and Feedback in Entrepreneural Decision Policies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Haynie, James M

    2005-01-01

    ..." cognitive strategies to promote cognitive adaptability, which I define as the ability to appropriately evolve individual decision-frameworks in concert with a changing and uncertain environment...

  6. The Past, Present and Future of Industrial Policy in India: Adapting to the Changing Domestic and International Environment

    OpenAIRE

    Ajit Singh

    2008-01-01

    In the post-World War II period India was probably the first non-communist developing country to have instituted a full-fledged industrial policy. The purpose of the policy was to co-ordinate investment decisions both in the public and the private sectors and to seize the 'commanding heights' of the economy by bringing certain strategic industries and firms under public ownership. This classical state-directed industrialisation model held sway for three decades, from 1950-1980. The model bega...

  7. The Use of Economic Evaluation to Inform Newborn Screening Policy Decisions: The Washington State Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosse, Scott D; Thompson, John D; Ding, Yao; Glass, Michael

    2016-06-01

    Newborn screening not only saves lives but can also yield net societal economic benefit, in addition to benefits such as improved quality of life to affected individuals and families. Calculations of net economic benefit from newborn screening include the monetary equivalent of avoided deaths and reductions in costs of care for complications associated with late-diagnosed individuals minus the additional costs of screening, diagnosis, and treatment associated with prompt diagnosis. Since 2001 the Washington State Department of Health has successfully implemented an approach to conducting evidence-based economic evaluations of disorders proposed for addition to the state-mandated newborn screening panel. Economic evaluations can inform policy decisions on the expansion of newborn screening panels. This article documents the use of cost-benefit models in Washington State as part of the rule-making process that resulted in the implementation of screening for medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) deficiency and 4 other metabolic disorders in 2004, cystic fibrosis (CF) in 2006, 15 other metabolic disorders in 2008, and severe combined immune deficiency (SCID) in 2014. We reviewed Washington State Department of Health internal reports and spreadsheet models of expected net societal benefit of adding disorders to the state newborn screening panel. We summarize the assumptions and findings for 2 models (MCAD and CF) and discuss them in relation to findings in the peer-reviewed literature. The MCAD model projected a benefit-cost ratio of 3.4 to 1 based on assumptions of a 20.0 percentage point reduction in infant mortality and a 13.9 percentage point reduction in serious developmental disability. The CF model projected a benefit-cost ratio of 4.0-5.4 to 1 for a discount rate of 3%-4% and a plausible range of 1-2 percentage point reductions in deaths up to age 10 years. The Washington State cost-benefit models of newborn screening were broadly consistent with peer

  8. Why do we need to integrate farmer decision making and wildlife models for policy evaluation?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malawska, Anna Katarzyna; Topping, Christopher John; Nielsen, Helle Ørsted

    2014-01-01

    Environmental and agricultural policy instruments cause changes in land-use which in turn affect habitat quality and availability for a range of species. These policies often have wildlife or biodiversity goals, but in many cases they are ineffective. The low effectiveness and the emergence...... on human (farmers) actions, which the policies aim to affect, and wildlife responses to land-use and management changes imposed by farmers. Thus, in order to design effective agri-environmental policies, detailed ex-ante assessments of both of these aspects are necessary. Due to the restrictive assumptions...

  9. Predictability of the future development of aggressive behavior of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas based on decision tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satomi, Junichiro; Ghaibeh, A Ammar; Moriguchi, Hiroki; Nagahiro, Shinji

    2015-07-01

    The severity of clinical signs and symptoms of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas (DAVFs) are well correlated with their pattern of venous drainage. Although the presence of cortical venous drainage can be considered a potential predictor of aggressive DAVF behaviors, such as intracranial hemorrhage or progressive neurological deficits due to venous congestion, accurate statistical analyses are currently not available. Using a decision tree data mining method, the authors aimed at clarifying the predictability of the future development of aggressive behaviors of DAVF and at identifying the main causative factors. Of 266 DAVF patients, 89 were eligible for analysis. Under observational management, 51 patients presented with intracranial hemorrhage/infarction during the follow-up period. The authors created a decision tree able to assess the risk for the development of aggressive DAVF behavior. Evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation, the decision tree's accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 85.28%, 88.33%, and 80.83%, respectively. The tree shows that the main factor in symptomatic patients was the presence of cortical venous drainage. In its absence, the lesion location determined the risk of a DAVF developing aggressive behavior. Decision tree analysis accurately predicts the future development of aggressive DAVF behavior.

  10. A life-cycle approach to technology, infrastructure, and climate policy decision making: Transitioning to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and low-carbon electricity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaras, Constantine

    In order to mitigate the most severe effects of climate change, large global reductions in the current levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are required in this century to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations at less than double pre-industrial levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report states that GHG emissions should be reduced to 50-80% of 2000 levels by 2050 to increase the likelihood of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In order to achieve the large GHG reductions by 2050 recommended by the IPCC, a fundamental shift and evolution will be required in the energy system. Because the electric power and transportation sectors represent the largest GHG emissions sources in the United States, a unique opportunity for coupling these systems via electrified transportation could achieve synergistic environmental (GHG emissions reductions) and energy security (petroleum displacement) benefits. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which use electricity from the grid to power a portion of travel, could play a major role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector. However, this thesis finds that life cycle GHG emissions from PHEVs depend on the electricity source that is used to charge the battery, so meaningful GHG emissions reductions with PHEVs are conditional on low-carbon electricity sources. Power plants and their associated GHGs are long-lived, and this work argues that decisions made regarding new electricity supplies within the next ten years will affect the potential of PHEVs to play a role in a low-carbon future in the coming decades. This thesis investigates the life cycle engineering, economic, and policy decisions involved in transitioning to PHEVs and low-carbon electricity. The government has a vast array of policy options to promote low-carbon technologies, some of which have proven to be more successful than others. This thesis uses life

  11. Future Savvy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gordon, Adam

    There's no shortage of predictions available to organizations looking to anticipate and profit from future events or trends. Apparently helpful forecasts are ubiquitous in everyday communications such as newspapers and business magazines, and in specialized sources such as government and think......-tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock-market guides. These resources are crucial, but they are also of very mixed quality. How can decision-makers know which predictions to take seriously, which to be wary of, and which to throw out entirely? Future Savvy provides analytical filters to judging predictive...... systematic "forecast filtering" to reveal strengths and weakness in the predictions they face. Future Savvy empowers both business and policy/government decision-makers to use forecasts wisely and so improve their judgment in anticipating opportunities, avoiding threats, and managing uncertainty....

  12. Decision and cost analysis of empirical antibiotic therapy of acute sinusitis in the era of increasing antimicrobial resistance: do we have an additional tool for antibiotic policy decisions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babela, Robert; Jarcuska, Pavol; Uraz, Vladimir; Krčméry, Vladimír; Jadud, Branislav; Stevlik, Jan; Gould, Ian M

    2017-11-01

    No previous analyses have attempted to determine optimal therapy for upper respiratory tract infections on the basis of cost-minimization models and the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance among respiratory pathogens in Slovakia. This investigation compares macrolides and cephalosporines for empirical therapy and look at this new tool from the aspect of potential antibiotic policy decision-making process. We employed a decision tree model to determine the threshold level of macrolides and cephalosporines resistance among community respiratory pathogens that would make cephalosporines or macrolides cost-minimising. To obtain information on clinical outcomes and cost of URTIs, a systematic review of the literature was performed. The cost-minimization model of upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) treatment was derived from the review of literature and published models. We found that the mean cost of empirical treatment with macrolides for an URTIs was €93.27 when the percentage of resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae in the community was 0%; at 5%, the mean cost was €96.45; at 10%, €99.63; at 20%, €105.99, and at 30%, €112.36. Our model demonstrated that when the percentage of macrolide resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae exceeds 13.8%, use of empirical cephalosporines rather than macrolides minimizes the treatment cost of URTIs. Empirical macrolide therapy is less expensive than cephalosporines therapy for URTIs unless macrolide resistance exceeds 13.8% in the community. Results have important antibiotic policy implications, since presented model can be use as an additional decision-making tool for new guidelines and reimbursement processes by local authorities in the era of continual increase in antibiotic resistance.

  13. A web-based tool to engage stakeholders in informing research planning for future decisions on emerging materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Powers, Christina M.; Grieger, Khara D.; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Meacham, Connie A.; Gurevich, Gerald; Lassiter, Meredith Gooding; Money, Eric S.; Lloyd, Jennifer M.; Beaulieu, Stephen M.

    2014-01-01

    Prioritizing and assessing risks associated with chemicals, industrial materials, or emerging technologies is a complex problem that benefits from the involvement of multiple stakeholder groups. For example, in the case of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), scientific uncertainties exist that hamper environmental, health, and safety (EHS) assessments. Therefore, alternative approaches to standard EHS assessment methods have gained increased attention. The objective of this paper is to describe the application of a web-based, interactive decision support tool developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) in a pilot study on ENMs. The piloted tool implements U.S. EPA's comprehensive environmental assessment (CEA) approach to prioritize research gaps. When pursued, such research priorities can result in data that subsequently improve the scientific robustness of risk assessments and inform future risk management decisions. Pilot results suggest that the tool was useful in facilitating multi-stakeholder prioritization of research gaps. Results also provide potential improvements for subsequent applications. The outcomes of future CEAWeb applications with larger stakeholder groups may inform the development of funding opportunities for emerging materials across the scientific community (e.g., National Science Foundation Science to Achieve Results [STAR] grants, National Institutes of Health Requests for Proposals). - Highlights: • A web-based, interactive decision support tool was piloted for emerging materials. • The tool (CEAWeb) was based on an established approach to prioritize research gaps. • CEAWeb facilitates multi-stakeholder prioritization of research gaps. • We provide recommendations for future versions and applications of CEAWeb

  14. Scenarios of technology and innovation policies in Europe : Investigating future governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuhlmann, Stefan; Edler, Jakob

    2003-01-01

    In Europe, public research, technology and innovation policies are no longer exclusively in the hands of national authorities: increasingly, national initiatives are supplemented by, or even competing with, regional innovation policies or transnational programmes, in particular the activities of the

  15. American’s Energy Future: An Analysis of the Proposed Energy Policy Plans in Presidential Election

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Hsun Cheng

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available As the leader of the largest economy, President of the United States has substantive influence on addressing climate change problems. However, a presidential election is often dominated by issues other than energy problems. This paper focuses on the 2016 presidential election, and examines the energy plans proposed by the leading Democrat and Republican candidates. Our data from the Iowa caucus survey in January 2016 suggests that voters were more concerned about terrorism and economic issues than environmental issues. We then compare the Democratic and Republican candidate’s view of America’s energy future, and evaluate their proposed renewable energy targets. We find that the view on renewable energy is polarized between Democratic and Republican candidates, while candidates from both parties agree on the need for energy efficiency. Results from our ordinal least squares regression models suggests that Democratic candidates have moderate to ambitious goals for developing solar and other renewables. The Republican candidates favor fossil fuels and they choose not to provide any specific target for developing renewable energy. In addition, this trend of party polarization has grown more significant when compared with the past three presidential elections. Our observation suggests that energy policies need to be discussed more often regarding the diversification and decarbonization of the nation’s energy system.

  16. The Sulu-Sulawesi Sea: environmental and socioeconomic status, future prognosis and ameliorative policy options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeVantier, Lyndon; Alcala, Angel; Wilkinson, Clive

    2004-02-01

    The Sulu-Sulawesi Sea, with neighboring Indonesian Seas and South China Sea, lies at the center of the world's tropical marine biodiversity. Encircled by 3 populous, developing nations, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia, the Sea and its adjacent coastal and terrestrial ecosystems, supports ca. 33 million people, most with subsistence livelihoods heavily reliant on its renewable natural resources. These resources are being impacted severely by rapid population growth (> 2% yr-1, with expected doubling by 2035) and widespread poverty, coupled with increasing international market demand and rapid technological changes, compounded by inefficiencies in governance and a lack of awareness and/or acceptance of some laws among local populations, particularly in parts of the Philippines and Indonesia. These key root causes all contribute to illegal practices and corruption, and are resulting in severe resource depletion and degradation of water catchments, river, lacustrine, estuarine, coastal, and marine ecosystems. The Sulu-Sulawesi Sea forms a major geopolitical focus, with porous borders, transmigration, separatist movements, piracy, and illegal fishing all contributing to environmental degradation, human suffering and political instability, and inhibiting strong trilateral support for interventions. This review analyzes these multifarious environmental and socioeconomic impacts and their root causes, provides a future prognosis of status by 2020, and recommends policy options aimed at amelioration through sustainable management and development.

  17. Autonomous vehicles:challenges, opportunities, and future implications for transportation policies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Saeed Asadi Bagloee; Madjid Tavana; Mohsen Asadi; Tracey Oliver

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the challenges and opportunities pertaining to transportation policies that may arise as a result of emerging autonomous vehicle (AV) technologies. AV technologies can decrease the trans-portation cost and increase accessibility to low-income households and persons with mobility issues. This emerg-ing technology also has far-reaching applications and implications beyond all current expectations. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the relevant literature and explores a broad spectrum of issues from safety to machine ethics. An indispensable part of a prospective AV development is communication over cars and infrastructure (connected vehicles). A major knowledge gap exists in AV technology with respect to routing behaviors. Connected-vehicle technology provides a great opportunity to imple-ment an efficient and intelligent routing system. To this end, we propose a conceptual navigation model based on a fleet of AVs that are centrally dispatched over a network seeking system optimization. This study contributes to the literature on two fronts: (i) it attempts to shed light on future opportunities as well as possible hurdles associated with AV technology;and (ii) it conceptualizes a navigation model for the AV which leads to highly efficient traffic circulations.

  18. Young citizens' knowledge and perceptions of bioenergy and future policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halder, Pradipta; Pietarinen, Janne; Havu-Nuutinen, Sari; Pelkonen, Paavo

    2010-01-01

    In the past few years extensive discussions on bioenergy has been both positive and negative. In Europe, the image of bioenergy appears to be low with lack of broad public support. Previous studies show that younger people are unsure about many issues surrounding renewable energy. The aim of this study was to investigate the knowledge and perceptions of bioenergy among pupils in North Karelia, Finland. Data drawn from 495 ninth grade students indicate that the majority of them lack in-depth knowledge about different renewable energy sources, including bioenergy. Only a small percentage has a 'high' level of knowledge about bioenergy and the majority indicates critical perceptions of it. Statistically significant gender differences are not apparent. Girls appear to be more knowledgeable than boys. Results also show a clear 'urban' and 'rural' difference in perceptions of bioenergy. Perceptions of urban respondents being more positive than that of their rural counterparts. Developing collaboration between future bioenergy policies and bioenergy education for younger citizens is necessary for their engagement in critical debates on bioenergy.

  19. Using Agent-Based Models to Develop Public Policy about Food Behaviours: Future Directions and Recommendations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe J. Giabbanelli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Most adults are overweight or obese in many western countries. Several population-level interventions on the physical, economical, political, or sociocultural environment have thus attempted to achieve a healthier weight. These interventions have involved different weight-related behaviours, such as food behaviours. Agent-based models (ABMs have the potential to help policymakers evaluate food behaviour interventions from a systems perspective. However, fully realizing this potential involves a complex procedure starting with obtaining and analyzing data to populate the model and eventually identifying more efficient cross-sectoral policies. Current procedures for ABMs of food behaviours are mostly rooted in one technique, often ignore the food environment beyond home and work, and underutilize rich datasets. In this paper, we address some of these limitations to better support policymakers through two contributions. First, via a scoping review, we highlight readily available datasets and techniques to deal with these limitations independently. Second, we propose a three steps’ process to tackle all limitations together and discuss its use to develop future models for food behaviours. We acknowledge that this integrated process is a leap forward in ABMs. However, this long-term objective is well-worth addressing as it can generate robust findings to effectively inform the design of food behaviour interventions.

  20. Environmental policy-making networks and the future of the Amazon

    OpenAIRE

    Lemos, Maria Carmen; Roberts, J. Timmons

    2008-01-01

    This article examines four periods of environmental policy-making in the Amazonian region of Brazil. It specifically analyses the role of pro-environment and pro-development policy networks in affecting policy design and implementation. It argues that the efforts of environmentalist networks trying to advocate or block relative developmentalist policies in the Amazon depend on three critical factors - whether they are able to attract the support of elites (or at least block their developmenta...

  1. Trialling an electronic decision aid for policy developers to support ageing well.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Elizabeth; Ellis, Leonie; Tin, Eh Eh; Boyer, Kim; Orpin, Peter

    2015-01-01

    The complex process of developing policies and planning services requires the compilation and collation of evidence from multiple sources. With the increasing numbers of people living longer there will be a high demand for a wide range of aged care services to support people in ageing well. The premise of ageing well is based on providing an ageing population with quality care and resources that support their ongoing needs. These include affordable healthcare, end of life care improvement, mental health services improvement, care and support improvement for people with dementia, and support for healthy ageing. The National Health and Medical Research Council funded a research project to develop a policy tool to provide a framework to assist policy makers and service planners in the area of ageing well in rural and regional Australia. It was identified that development of an electronic version of the policy tool could be useful resulting in a small pilot development being undertaken and tested with policy makers and service planners. This paper describes the development and trialling of a tablet based application used to assess the acceptability of computerised forms for participants actively involved in policy development. It reports on the policy developer's experience of the electronic tool to support ageing well policy making based on evidence.

  2. Technical bases for OCRWM's [Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management] policy decisions on international safeguards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sprecher, W.M.

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the technical factors that contributed to the formulation of the international safeguards policy enunciated in September 1988 by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), which is the federal organization responsible for the implementation of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as amended

  3. Intent to participate in future cervical cancer screenings is lower when satisfaction with the decision to be vaccinated is neutral.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Marya Alexander

    Full Text Available HPV vaccination programs have adversely affected participation in future cervical cancer screening. The purpose of this study is to determine the influence of decision satisfaction with accepting/rejecting the HPV vaccine, as well as traditional clinical factors, on the intent to participate in future screening.From January 2011 through August 2012 women 18-26 years old presenting for health care in an urban college student health and wellness clinic in the US Midwest were asked to complete a descriptive and medical history survey including a six element decisional satisfaction survey scored on 5-point Likert scales, where the intent to participate in future cervical cancer screening was measured. Of the 568 women who completed the decisional satisfaction survey, 17% of those <21 years and 7% ≥ 21 years indicated no intent to participate in future cervical cancer screenings. Among women of current screening age, the univariate risk factors of race/ethnicity, contraceptive use, number of lifetime sexual partners, and receipt of HPV vaccine were not predictors of intent for future cervical cancer screening. Instead, only a history of a prior Pap test was a significant positive predictor and only a decisional satisfaction of 'neutral' (Likert score = 3 for any of the four decisional satisfaction elements was a significant negative predictor. For the decisional satisfaction element "best for me personally", there was a 78% decreased likelihood of intending to participate in future screening if the satisfaction was neutral rather than firm (aOR = 0.22, 95% CI: 0.05-0.91 and a 26 fold increased likelihood if she had had a prior Pap test (aOR = 26, 95% CI: 5-133.HPV vaccination implementation programs must help women be the owner of their decision around HPV vaccination and understand the importance of future participation in cervical cancer screening.

  4. Potential impacts of energy efficiency policies in the U.S. industry: Results from the clean energy futures study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worrell, Ernst; Price, Lynn

    2001-01-01

    Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future (CEF) studied the role that efficient clean energy technologies can play in meeting the economic and environmental challenges for our future energy supply. The study describes a portfolio of policies that would motivate energy users and businesses to invest in innovative energy efficient technologies. On the basis of the portfolios, two policy scenarios have been developed, i.e. a moderate scenario and an advanced scenario. We focus on the industrial part of the CEF-study. The studied policies include a wide scope of activities, which are organized under the umbrella of voluntary industrial sector agreements. The policies for the policy scenarios have been modeled using the National Energy Modeling System (CEF-NEMS). Under the reference scenario industrial energy use would grow to 41 Quads in 2020, compared to 34.8 Quads in 1997, with an average improvement of the energy intensity by 1.1% per year. In the Moderate scenario the annual improvement is a bout 1.5%/year, leading to primary energy use of 37.8 Quads in 2020, resulting in 10% lower CO2 emissions by 2020 compared to the reference scenario. In the Advanced scenario the annual improvement increases to 1.8% per year, leading to primary energy use of 34.3 Quads in 2020, and 29% lower CO2 emissions. We report on the policies, assumptions and results for industry

  5. How do researchers influence decision-makers? Case studies of Mexican policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trostle, J; Bronfman, M; Langer, A

    1999-06-01

    Though the problems translating or applying research in policy-making are legion, solutions are rare. As developing countries increase their capacities to develop effective local solutions to their health problems, they confront the research/policy dilemma. Yet few descriptive studies of research-policy links can be found from developing countries, and the relevance of European and North American models and data is questionable. We report the results of a descriptive study from Mexico of the relationship between health research and policy in four vertical programmes (AIDS, cholera, family planning, immunization). We interviewed 67 researchers and policy-makers from different institutions and levels of responsibility. We analyzed interviewee responses looking for factors that promoted or impeded exchanges between researchers and policy-makers. These were, in turn, divided into emphases on content, actors, process, and context. Many of the promoting factors resembled findings from studies in industrialized countries. Some important differences across the four programmes, which also distinguish them from industrialized country programmes, included extent of reliance on formal communication channels, role of the mass media in building social consensus or creating discord, levels of social consensus, role of foreign donors, and extent of support for biomedical versus social research. We recommend various ways to increase the impact of research on health policy-making in Mexico. Some of the largest challenges include the fact that researchers are but one of many interest groups, and research but one input among many equally legitimate elements to be considered by policy-makers. Another important challenge in Mexico is the relatively small role played by the public in policy-making. Further democratic changes in Mexico may be the most important incentive to increase the use of research in policy-making.

  6. Making Decisions with the Future in Mind: Developmental and Comparative Identification of Mental Time Travel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suddendorf, T.; Busby, J.

    2005-01-01

    Mechanisms that produce behavior which increase future survival chances provide an adaptive advantage. The flexibility of human behavior is at least partly the result of one such mechanism, our ability to travel mentally in time and entertain potential future scenarios. We can study mental time travel in children using language. Current results…

  7. The Space Station decision - Politics, bureaucracy, and the making of public policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccurdy, Howard E.

    1991-01-01

    The lack of consensus that dominates the conception of major scientific and technological programs is demonstrated via a comparison of the decisions to build the Space Station and the Space Transportation System, and the decision to go to the moon. It is argued that the way political reality conditions administrative behavior in NASA is shown by the decision to promote international cooperation prior to program approval. It is concluded that so long as NASA remains a government agency, its officials will struggle to learn how to balance professional accountability with political reality.

  8. Nuclear regulation in the United States : Policy directions and future prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shirley, Ann Jackson

    1996-01-01

    Just before leaving the United States to come to Korea, I addressed the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) annual regulatory information conference, with which some of you might be familiar. The overall theme this year focused on enhancing and promoting a better understanding of future trends for improving nuclear safety. Specific sessions addressed an array of nuclear safety topics including: dry cask storage of spent fuel; performance-based changes in the inspection program; core performance and reactor fuel issues; the revised decommissioning rule; utility restructuring and NRC licensing activities; steam generators; implementation of the maintenance rule; an update on license renewal; the shutdown rule; and spent fuel pool issues. The number and range of topics addressed tells US that the nuclear field is by no means static. On the contrary. there are numerous areas in which regulatory policy is evolving in response to technological, governmental, and other developments. while not all nations with nuclear programs face the same issues at the same time, there is enough overlap from one nation to another that it may be useful to describe the challenges facing the NRC today. the nuclear regulatory policy is moving. The challenges that we are dealing with at the NRC today may well be those which other nations will be confronting shortly? of they are not doing so already. In addressing the question of my vision for the NRC, I am sometimes asked whether it is possible to have a vision for the agency, given that no new nuclear plants are being built in the U. S. and none are on the immediate horizon. The answer, of course, is that the original licensing of nuclear power plants is only a part of the job of the NRC? an important part, to be sure, be but because safety must be built into nuclear plants from the beginning -- but nevertheless just one part. The task of the nuclear regulator is to ensure not only that plants are designed and constructed safely, but

  9. China's one-child policy, a policy without a future. Pitfalls of the “common good” argument and the authoritarian model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Jing-Bao

    2014-07-01

    The Chinese Communist Party government has been forcefully promoting its jihua shengyu (planned fertility) program, known as the "one-child policy," for more than three decades. A distinctive authoritarian model of population governance has been developed. A pertinent question to be asked is whether China's one-child policy and the authoritarian model of population governance have a future. The answer must be no; they do not. Although there are many demographic, economic, and social rationales for terminating the one-child policy, the most fundamental reason for opposing its continuation is drawn from ethics. The key ethical rationale offered for the policy is that it promotes the common social good, not only for China and the Chinese people but for the whole human family. The major irony associated with this apparently convincing justification is that, although designed to improve living standards and help relieve poverty and underdevelopment, the one-child policy and the application of the authoritarian model have instead caused massive suffering to Chinese people, especially women, and made them victims of state violence. A lesson from China--one learned at the cost of individual and social suffering on an enormous scale--is that an essential prerequisite for the pursuit of the common good is the creation of adequate constraints on state power.

  10. Ethical Decision-Making: The Role of Self-Monitoring, Future Orientation, and Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Carla Bon

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the influence of individual factors (self monitoring, temporal orientation on social networking, and their relationship with unethical decision-making. The study used surveys to measure the unethical intentions and social network data of 129 professionals. Data were analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling. The findings provided evidence that individual factors influence the development of social networks and, along with self-monitoring, the likelihood of unethical decision-making. In particular, being in positions of lower network centrality increased individuals’ risk of unethical intention. One explanation stems from the need for high situation control to reduce risk and ensure the success of an event, which only a closed network can provide. However, ethical low self-monitor women were also found to have low centrality, so social networks alone do not explain ethical decision-making. This research represents a step forward in our understanding of ethical decision-making through the adoption of multiple and simultaneous factors, proposing an integrated theory of individual and situational factors influencing unethical options.

  11. Decision-support tool for assessing future nuclear reactor generation portfolios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, Shashi; Roelofs, Ferry; Oosterlee, Cornelis W.

    2014-01-01

    Capital costs, fuel, operation and maintenance (O and M) costs, and electricity prices play a key role in the economics of nuclear power plants. Often standardized reactor designs are required to be locally adapted, which often impacts the project plans and the supply chain. It then becomes difficult to ascertain how these changes will eventually reflect in costs, which makes the capital costs component of nuclear power plants uncertain. Different nuclear reactor types compete economically by having either lower and less uncertain construction costs, increased efficiencies, lower and less uncertain fuel cycles and O and M costs etc. The decision making process related to nuclear power plants requires a holistic approach that takes into account the key economic factors and their uncertainties. We here present a decision-support tool that satisfactorily takes into account the major uncertainties in the cost elements of a nuclear power plant, to provide an optimal portfolio of nuclear reactors. The portfolio so obtained, under our model assumptions and the constraints considered, maximizes the combined returns for a given level of risk or uncertainty. These decisions are made using a combination of real option theory and mean–variance portfolio optimization. - Highlights: • Decisions to continue or abandon the construction of NPPs • Mean–variance portfolio of nuclear reactors • Sensitivity study of mean–variance portfolio of nuclear reactors

  12. A Review of Decision Support Models for Global Distribution Network Design and Future Model development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reich, Juri; Kinra, Aseem; Kotzab, Herbert

    not offer a comprehensive method that is able to solve the problem in one single decision making process considering all relevant goals and factors. Thus, we attempt to create such a model using existing methods as building blocks, namely mixedinteger linear programming and the analytical hierarchy process....

  13. The Sustained Influence of an Error on Future Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffler, Björn C; Bengtsson, Sara L; Lundqvist, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Post-error slowing (PES) is consistently observed in decision-making tasks after negative feedback. Yet, findings are inconclusive as to whether PES supports performance accuracy. We addressed the role of PES by employing drift diffusion modeling which enabled us to investigate latent processes of reaction times and accuracy on a large-scale dataset (>5,800 participants) of a visual search experiment with emotional face stimuli. In our experiment, post-error trials were characterized by both adaptive and non-adaptive decision processes. An adaptive increase in participants' response threshold was sustained over several trials post-error. Contrarily, an initial decrease in evidence accumulation rate, followed by an increase on the subsequent trials, indicates a momentary distraction of task-relevant attention and resulted in an initial accuracy drop. Higher values of decision threshold and evidence accumulation on the post-error trial were associated with higher accuracy on subsequent trials which further gives credence to these parameters' role in post-error adaptation. Finally, the evidence accumulation rate post-error decreased when the error trial presented angry faces, a finding suggesting that the post-error decision can be influenced by the error context. In conclusion, we demonstrate that error-related response adaptations are multi-component processes that change dynamically over several trials post-error.

  14. The Sustained Influence of an Error on Future Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Björn C. Schiffler

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Post-error slowing (PES is consistently observed in decision-making tasks after negative feedback. Yet, findings are inconclusive as to whether PES supports performance accuracy. We addressed the role of PES by employing drift diffusion modeling which enabled us to investigate latent processes of reaction times and accuracy on a large-scale dataset (>5,800 participants of a visual search experiment with emotional face stimuli. In our experiment, post-error trials were characterized by both adaptive and non-adaptive decision processes. An adaptive increase in participants’ response threshold was sustained over several trials post-error. Contrarily, an initial decrease in evidence accumulation rate, followed by an increase on the subsequent trials, indicates a momentary distraction of task-relevant attention and resulted in an initial accuracy drop. Higher values of decision threshold and evidence accumulation on the post-error trial were associated with higher accuracy on subsequent trials which further gives credence to these parameters’ role in post-error adaptation. Finally, the evidence accumulation rate post-error decreased when the error trial presented angry faces, a finding suggesting that the post-error decision can be influenced by the error context. In conclusion, we demonstrate that error-related response adaptations are multi-component processes that change dynamically over several trials post-error.

  15. Past career in future thinking: How career management practices shape entrepreneurial decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engel, Y.; van Burg, J.C.; Kleijn, E.; Khapova, S.N.

    2017-01-01

    This study builds a grounded model of how careers shape entrepreneurs’ preference for causal and effectual decision logics when starting new ventures. Using both verbal protocol analysis and interviews, we adopt a qualitative research approach to induct career management practices germane to

  16. Past Career in Future Thinking : How Career Management Practices Shape Entrepreneurial Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engel, Y.; van Burg, E.; Kleijn, E.; Khapova, S.

    2017-01-01

    This study builds a grounded model of how careers shape entrepreneurs’ preferences for causal and effectual decision logics when starting new ventures. Using both verbal protocol analysis and interviews, we adopt a qualitative research approach to induct career management practices germane to

  17. Managing the university campus : Exploring models for the future and supporting today's decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Den Heijer, A.C.

    2012-01-01

    Managing contemporary campuses and taking decisions that will impact on those of tomorrow is a complex task for universities worldwide. It involves strategic, financial, functional and physical aspects as well as multiple stakeholders. This article summarises the conclusions of a comprehensive PhD

  18. The Impacts of Subsidy Policies on Vaccination Decisions in Contact Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Hai-Feng; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Xu, Xiao-Ke; Small, Michael; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2012-01-01

    Often, vaccination programs are carried out based on self-interest rather than being mandatory. Owing to the perceptions about risks associated with vaccines and the `herd immunity' effect, it may provide suboptimal vaccination coverage for the population as a whole. In this case, some subsidy policies may be offered by the government to promote vaccination coverage. But, not all subsidy policies are effective in controlling the transmission of infectious diseases. We address the question of ...

  19. Outline of the Future Agenda for Environmental Policy in the Netherlands; Hoofdlijnennotitie Toekomstagenda Milieu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-10-10

    An overview is given of the targets for the environmental policy in the Netherlands, focusing on the strict decoupling of economic development and changes in the environmental impacts. Also, the Dutch government aims at decreasing the environmental effects of the past in order to minimize the consequences for public health and the environment. Finally, transferring environmental problems to other parts of the world of future generations must be prevented as much as possible. Targets concern Economy and innovation; Public health and safety; Energy and climate; and Nature and biodiversity. [Dutch] Het beleid uit het NMP4 en de nota Vaste waarden, nieuwe vormen is voor dit kabinet, binnen het kader van het Europese milieubeleid, nog steeds het vertrekpunt van het milieubeleid. De doelen van het bestaande milieubeleid staan niet ter discussie. De uitvoering en handhaving van het bestaande beleid staan voorop. Waar doelen niet worden gehaald is extra aandacht vereist en waar nodig moeten nieuwe doelen worden geformuleerd voor de periode na 2010. In lijn met het Hoofdlijnenakkoord houdt het kabinet ook in de Toekomstagenda Milieu vast aan de absolute ontkoppeling van economische groei en verandering in milieudruk. Absolute ontkoppeling betekent dat er geen nieuwe milieuschuld wordt opgebouwd. Het kabinet wil ook de in het verleden opgebouwde milieuschuld binnen een generatie zodanig verminderen dat er geen significante gevolgen voor gezondheid en milieu meer zijn. De afwenteling van onze milieuproblemen naar andere delen van de wereld, of naar toekomstige generaties, moet zoveel mogelijk worden voorkomen. Speerpunten zijn Economie en Innovaties; Gezond en Veilig; Energie en Klimaat; Natuur en Biodiversiteit.

  20. Jezebel at the welfare office: How racialized stereotypes of poor women's reproductive decisions and relationships shape policy implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masters, N Tatiana; Lindhorst, Taryn P; Meyers, Marcia K

    2014-01-01

    Current welfare scholarship lacks an analysis of how caseworkers discuss sexuality-related issues with clients. Seventy-two of 232 transcribed welfare interviews in three states included discussion of reproductive decisions and relationships. Overall, caseworkers' language reflected negative myths regarding African American women's sexuality and motherhood. By virtue of their status as welfare recipients, regardless of their individual races, clients were placed into racialized myths through workers' talk. This analysis demonstrates that though not present in every welfare interview and often veiled in bureaucratic language, negative ideas about poor women's sexuality persist in welfare policy and are deeply embedded in its day-to-day implementation.

  1. The Relationships of Self-Esteem, Future Time Perspective, Positive Affect, Social Support, and Career Decision: A Longitudinal Multilevel Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, In-Jo; Kim, Minhee; Kwon, Seungwoo; Lee, Hae-Gyoung

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed, first, to determine whether the intra-individual variability in positive affect was related to the intra-individual variability in career decision-making self-efficacy, and career choice anxiety. The second objective was to examine whether social support moderates the relationship between affect and these outcome variables. The third objective was to find out how career decision-making self-efficacy and career choice anxiety change according to self-esteem and future time perspective. We conducted a study using the daily diary method in which participants were asked to rate their affect or attitudes for 21 consecutive days. In total, 128 university students participated in this study. The main results were as follows. First, positive affect was associated positively with career decision-making self-efficacy and negatively with career choice anxiety. Second, social support had a synergy effect with positive affect to influence career choice anxiety. Third, self-esteem was related positively to career decision-making self-efficacy and negatively to career choice anxiety. We discuss theoretical and practical implications. PMID:29755381

  2. The Relationships of Self-Esteem, Future Time Perspective, Positive Affect, Social Support, and Career Decision: A Longitudinal Multilevel Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, In-Jo; Kim, Minhee; Kwon, Seungwoo; Lee, Hae-Gyoung

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed, first, to determine whether the intra-individual variability in positive affect was related to the intra-individual variability in career decision-making self-efficacy, and career choice anxiety. The second objective was to examine whether social support moderates the relationship between affect and these outcome variables. The third objective was to find out how career decision-making self-efficacy and career choice anxiety change according to self-esteem and future time perspective. We conducted a study using the daily diary method in which participants were asked to rate their affect or attitudes for 21 consecutive days. In total, 128 university students participated in this study. The main results were as follows. First, positive affect was associated positively with career decision-making self-efficacy and negatively with career choice anxiety. Second, social support had a synergy effect with positive affect to influence career choice anxiety. Third, self-esteem was related positively to career decision-making self-efficacy and negatively to career choice anxiety. We discuss theoretical and practical implications.

  3. The Relationships of Self-Esteem, Future Time Perspective, Positive Affect, Social Support, and Career Decision: A Longitudinal Multilevel Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    In-Jo Park

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed, first, to determine whether the intra-individual variability in positive affect was related to the intra-individual variability in career decision-making self-efficacy, and career choice anxiety. The second objective was to examine whether social support moderates the relationship between affect and these outcome variables. The third objective was to find out how career decision-making self-efficacy and career choice anxiety change according to self-esteem and future time perspective. We conducted a study using the daily diary method in which participants were asked to rate their affect or attitudes for 21 consecutive days. In total, 128 university students participated in this study. The main results were as follows. First, positive affect was associated positively with career decision-making self-efficacy and negatively with career choice anxiety. Second, social support had a synergy effect with positive affect to influence career choice anxiety. Third, self-esteem was related positively to career decision-making self-efficacy and negatively to career choice anxiety. We discuss theoretical and practical implications.

  4. Past experience with the EU Common Agricultural Policy and future challenges for landscape development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vesterager, Jens Peter; Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck; Busck, Anne Gravsholt

    and land use through the Common Agricultural Policies (CAP) and several other policies, however it is sometimes difficult to distinguish between effects of EU policies and the general trends on the European continent. In a Danish perspective, the formal effects of EU membership have been effectuated since...... the accession to the EU by 1973, however the trend towards intensification and industrialisation have emerged since the 2nd world war. Since 1973, landscape challenge have changed from intensification to debates on marginalisation in the early 1980s, introduction of the environmental policies in the mid 1980s...

  5. A tool for rapid assessment of erosion risk to support decision-making and policy development at the Ngenge watershed in Uganda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mutekanga, F.P.; Visser, S.M.; Stroosnijder, L.

    2010-01-01

    This study tests a rapid, user-friendly method for assessing changes in erosion risk, which yields information to aid policy development and decision-making for sustainable natural resources management. There is currently a lack of timely, up-to-date and current information to support policy

  6. Who should donate blood? Policy decisions on donor deferral criteria should protect recipients and be fair to donors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brailsford, S R; Kelly, D; Kohli, H; Slowther, A; Watkins, N A

    2015-08-01

    An important element in the development of voluntary blood donation schemes throughout the world has been the attention given to minimising the risk to recipients of donated blood, primarily the risk of transfusion transmitted infections. In response to the appearance of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the 1980s a range of national policies emerged that excluded populations at high risk of contracting HIV from donating blood, with a particular focus on men who have sex with men (MSM), the primary reason being the protection of recipients of donated blood. Recently some countries, including the UK, have revised their policies, informed by advances in screening tests, epidemiological evidence of transmission rates and an increasing concern about unfair discrimination of specific groups in society. Policy makers face a difficult task of balancing safety of recipients; an adequate blood supply for those who require transfusion; and societal/legal obligations to treat everyone fairly. Given that no transfusion is risk free, the question is what degree of risk is acceptable in order to meet the needs of recipients and society. Decisions about acceptance of risk are complex and policy makers who set acceptable risk levels must provide ethically justifiable reasons for their decisions. We suggest it is possible to provide a set of reasons that stakeholders could agree are relevant based on careful evaluation of the evidence of all relevant risks and explicit acknowledgement of other morally relevant values. We describe using such a process in the Safety of Blood Tissue and Organs (SaBTO) review of donor deferral criteria related to sexual behaviour. © 2015 British Blood Transfusion Society.

  7. Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Guzy

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

  8. Tools of the Future: How Decision Tree Analysis Will Impact Mission Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otterstatter, Matthew R.

    2005-01-01

    The universe is infinitely complex; however, the human mind has a finite capacity. The multitude of possible variables, metrics, and procedures in mission planning are far too many to address exhaustively. This is unfortunate because, in general, considering more possibilities leads to more accurate and more powerful results. To compensate, we can get more insightful results by employing our greatest tool, the computer. The power of the computer will be utilized through a technology that considers every possibility, decision tree analysis. Although decision trees have been used in many other fields, this is innovative for space mission planning. Because this is a new strategy, no existing software is able to completely accommodate all of the requirements. This was determined through extensive research and testing of current technologies. It was necessary to create original software, for which a short-term model was finished this summer. The model was built into Microsoft Excel to take advantage of the familiar graphical interface for user input, computation, and viewing output. Macros were written to automate the process of tree construction, optimization, and presentation. The results are useful and promising. If this tool is successfully implemented in mission planning, our reliance on old-fashioned heuristics, an error-prone shortcut for handling complexity, will be reduced. The computer algorithms involved in decision trees will revolutionize mission planning. The planning will be faster and smarter, leading to optimized missions with the potential for more valuable data.

  9. Application of Future State Decision Making in the Eagle Combat Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-09-01

    not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 1 7 Cosati Codes 18 S:iDj,.ct Terms (continue on... cncd 30 40 co el C14N- LI)I E- . IC041 00 E E. C) CD 0 06. 4104 xd- .r - 1 w a S.CL U.~- 0 S.31 Cl- w cu N ~ ~ -.- - f Lin EEn LM 0f CCN. ’C4 0 4-it 0

  10. Impact of Asymmetric Carbon Information on Supply Chain Decisions under Low-Carbon Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Through the establishment of the leading manufacturer Stackelberg game model under asymmetric carbon information, this paper investigates the misreporting behaviors of the supply chain members and their influences on supply chain performance. Based on “Benchmarking” allocation mechanism, three policies are considered: carbon emission trading, carbon tax, and a new policy which combined carbon quota and carbon tax mechanism. The results show that, in the three models, the leader in the supply chain, even if he has advantages of carbon information, will not lie about his information. That is because the manufacturer’s misreporting behavior has no effect on supply chain members’ performance. But the retailer will lie about the information when he has carbon information advantage. The high-carbon-emission retailers under the carbon trading policy, all the retailers under the carbon tax policy, and the high-carbon-emission retailers under combined quotas and tax policy would like to understate their carbon emissions. Coordination of revenue sharing contract is studied in supply chain to induce the retailer to declare his real carbon information. Optimal contractual parameters are deduced in the three models, under which the profit of the supply chain can be maximized.

  11. Health services analysis as a tool for evidence-based policy decisions: the case of the Ministry of Health and Social Security in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroeger, Axel; Hernandez, Juan Manuel

    2003-12-01

    To describe the strengths and weaknesses of two Mexican health care providers for poor populations [Ministry of Health (MoH) and Social Security (SS)] in order to facilitate policy decisions about the future of the two systems. In four Mexican states we conducted (i) a household interview survey in 10 724 households; (ii) a user satisfaction survey in 1319 households; (iii) a satisfaction survey of 236 health workers; (iv) in-depth interviews with 190 health workers; (v) 188 focus-group discussions with different population groups; (vi) a document analysis. Both systems serve populations with similar characteristics of poverty. The availability of resources was better in the MoH system; SS care was better concerning process indicators (family planning, antenatal care; in-service delivery of drugs, staff productivity, user satisfaction and staff motivation), efficiency and effectiveness (reduction of morbidity and mortality). Possible explanatory factors for the better performance of the SS system were strong supervision, regular communication, joint data analysis and annual population surveys. Better service organization makes a difference regarding efficiency and effectiveness. Policy-makers, deciding on which kind of health services are best for the poor, should take into account health services' analyses.

  12. Connecting Children to the Future: A Telecommunications Policy Guide for Child Advocates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Center for Media Education, Washington, DC.

    New digital technologies and the rapid growth of the Internet are restructuring communications systems and transforming education and the economy. Noting that many of the resulting telecommunications policies will be made at the state level, this publication provides guidelines for child advocates to influence state policy regarding children's use…

  13. Using Future Research Methods in Analysing Policies Relating to Open Distance Education in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makoe, Mpine Elizabeth

    2018-01-01

    Many African countries have developed policies to reform their education system in order to widen participation in higher education. To achieve this, open, online and distance education based models have been advocated as the most viable delivery tools in expanding access to higher education. However, the policy analysis of Kenya, Rwanda and…

  14. Flood Risk Management Policy in Scotland: Research Questions Past, Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Mark; Hastings, Emily; MacDonald, Jannette

    2016-04-01

    Scotland's Centre of Expertise for Waters (CREW) delivers accessible research and expert opinion to support the Scottish Government and its delivery partners in the development and implementation of water policy. It was established in 2011 by the Scottish Government (Rural and Environmental Science and Analytical Services) in recognition of a gap in the provision of short term advice and research to policy (development and implementation). Key policy areas include the Water Framework Directive, Floods Directive, Drinking Water Directive, Habitats Directive and Scotland's Hydro Nation Strategy. CREW is unique in its demand-driven and free service for policy makers and practitioners, managing the engagement between scientists, policy makers and practitioners to work effectively across this interface. The users of CREW are the Scottish Government, Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Scottish Natural Heritage and Scottish Water. CREW has funded around 100 projects relating to water policy since its inception in 2011. Of these, a significant number relate to flood risk management policy. Based on a review of work to date, this poster will give an overview of these projects and a forward look at the challenges that remain. From learning from community led flood risk management to surface water flood forecasting for urban communities, links will be made between sustainable and traditional flood risk management while considering the perceptions of stakeholders to flood risk management. How can we deliver fully integrated flood risk management options? How policy makers, scientists and land managers can better work together will also be explored.

  15. Management of Internal and External Factors of Decisive Policies in Agriculture in Macroeconomic Crisis Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanghele Cristian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The management of internal and external factors directly influencing the decisions implemented by the managerial act at the macroeconomic analysis of the relations within this branch and sub-branches, of the disturbing factors with the implementation of some decisions to stop the phenomena of soil degradation and agricultural land and to preserve and develop their productive potential, a production surplus for ash consumption and ensuring a productive production for industrial consumption with the result of gaining added value and net profit as much as possible for the exploitation farms.

  16. A web-based tool to engage stakeholders in informing research planning for future decisions on emerging materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Powers, Christina M., E-mail: powers.christina@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Grieger, Khara D., E-mail: kgrieger@rti.org [RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Rd., Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Hendren, Christine Ogilvie, E-mail: chendren@duke.edu [Center for the Environmental Implications of NanoTechnology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (United States); Meacham, Connie A., E-mail: meacham.connie@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Gurevich, Gerald, E-mail: gurevich.gerald@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Lassiter, Meredith Gooding, E-mail: lassiter.meredith@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Money, Eric S., E-mail: emoney@rti.org [RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Rd., Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Lloyd, Jennifer M., E-mail: jml@rti.org [RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Rd., Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Beaulieu, Stephen M., E-mail: steveb@rti.org [RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Rd., Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States)

    2014-02-01

    Prioritizing and assessing risks associated with chemicals, industrial materials, or emerging technologies is a complex problem that benefits from the involvement of multiple stakeholder groups. For example, in the case of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), scientific uncertainties exist that hamper environmental, health, and safety (EHS) assessments. Therefore, alternative approaches to standard EHS assessment methods have gained increased attention. The objective of this paper is to describe the application of a web-based, interactive decision support tool developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) in a pilot study on ENMs. The piloted tool implements U.S. EPA's comprehensive environmental assessment (CEA) approach to prioritize research gaps. When pursued, such research priorities can result in data that subsequently improve the scientific robustness of risk assessments and inform future risk management decisions. Pilot results suggest that the tool was useful in facilitating multi-stakeholder prioritization of research gaps. Results also provide potential improvements for subsequent applications. The outcomes of future CEAWeb applications with larger stakeholder groups may inform the development of funding opportunities for emerging materials across the scientific community (e.g., National Science Foundation Science to Achieve Results [STAR] grants, National Institutes of Health Requests for Proposals). - Highlights: • A web-based, interactive decision support tool was piloted for emerging materials. • The tool (CEAWeb) was based on an established approach to prioritize research gaps. • CEAWeb facilitates multi-stakeholder prioritization of research gaps. • We provide recommendations for future versions and applications of CEAWeb.

  17. Does Age Matter in HR Decision Making? Four Types of Age Policies in Finnish Work Organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Pärnänen

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The extension of work careers is one of the key targets of social policy in the EU as well as in Finnish national policy-making. But how is this objective of lengthened work life received at the workplace level? This study examines the aim of extending working careers at an organizational level. The data comprise interviews with human resources managers, shop stewards, and employees reaching the end of their working life, conducted in ten Finnish work organizations. Four different age policy lines can be distinguished from the data. First, the age policy practices of manufacturing enterprises are very much alike in that a clear turn has occurred from favoring the unemployment pension path in the case of dismissals to extending working careers. Second, the age policy of public sector organizations encourages investment in extending the working careers of older employees, though young people are clearly preferred in recruitment. The third line can be found in private service sector enterprises that utilize age segmentation based on the age of their customers – young waiters for young customers, for example – while the fourth can be described by the words ‘situation-specific’ and ‘passive’. No input is made into extending working careers and the unemployment route is used as the means of dismissal where needed. The study reveals that the organizations’ age policies are strategic in nature: longer working careers are supported and older people are hired only if it is strategically sound. It can be said that workplaces currently determine the boundaries of who and at what age people are fit for work and of ‘working age’.

  18. European antitrust policy 1957-2004: An analysis of Commission decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carree, M.; Günster, A.; Schinkel, M.P.

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides a survey of European antitrust law enforcement since its foundation in the Treaty of Rome of 1957. We present a complete overview and statistical analysis of all 538 formal Commission decisions adopted up to 2004 under Articles 81, 82 and 86 of the European Community Treaty. We

  19. The Impact of Institutional Culture, Policy and Process on Student Engagement in University Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Philip

    2018-01-01

    There is a strong focus on the importance of student engagement in higher education, with increasing attention on how students can participate in their university's decision-making processes. Yet, although the concept appears to be almost universally accepted, it is rarely problematised. This has led some commentators to conclude that student…

  20. Principals' Decision Making in Discipline Policy Implementation: The Lutheran Schools' Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandon, Katherine J.

    2013-01-01

    This quantitative study examines the relationship of philosophical beliefs of administrators of Lutheran schools and the influence of those beliefs on discipline decision-making styles, job satisfaction, and other factors. The study patterns the survey work from William Perry (1999) and other theorists regarding philosophy and ethics. A…

  1. European antitrust policy 1957-2004: an analysis of Commission decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carree, M.; Günster, A.; Schinkel, M.P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides a survey of European antitrust law enforcement since its foundation in the Treaty of Rome of 1957 up to and including 2004. We present a complete overview and statistical analysis of all 538 formal Commission decisions under Articles 81, 82, and 86 of the European Community

  2. The future of decision-making in critical care after Cuthbertson v. Rasouli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawryluck, Laura; Baker, Andrew J; Faith, Andrew; Singh, Jeffrey M

    2014-10-01

    The Supreme Court of Canada (SCC) ruling on Cuthbertson v. Rasouli has implications for all acute healthcare providers. This well-publicized case involved a disagreement between healthcare providers and a patient's family regarding the principles surrounding withdrawal of life support, which the physicians involved considered no longer of medical benefit and outside the standard of care, and whether consent was required for such withdrawals. Our objective in writing this article is to clarify the implications of this ruling on the care of critically ill patients. SCC ruling Cuthbertson v. Rasouli. The SCC ruled that consent must be obtained for all treatments that serve a "health-related purpose", including withdrawal of such treatments. The SCC did not fully consider what the standard of care should be. Health-related purpose is not sufficient in and of itself to mandate treatment, and clinicians must still ensure that their patients or decision-makers are aware of the possible medical benefits, risks, and expected outcomes of treatments. The provision of treatments that have no potential to provide medical benefit and carry only risks would still fall outside the standard of care. Nevertheless, due to their health-related purpose, physicians must seek consent for the discontinuation of these treatments. The SCC ruled that due to the legal definition of "health-related purpose", which is distinct from medical benefit, consent is required to withdraw life-support and outlined the steps to be taken should conflict arise. The SCC decision did not directly address the role of medical standard of care in these situations. In order to ensure optimal decision-making and communication with patients and their families, it is critical for healthcare providers to have a clear understanding of the implications of this legal ruling on medical practice.

  3. Shaping the Future Landscape: Catchment Systems Engineering and the Decision Support Matrix Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewett, Caspar; Quinn, Paul; Wilkinson, Mark; Wainwright, John

    2017-04-01

    Land degradation is widely recognised as one of the great environmental challenges facing humanity today, much of which is directly associated with human activity. The negative impacts of climate change and of the way in which we have engineered the landscape through, for example, agriculture intensification and deforestation, need to be addressed. However, the answer is not a simple matter of doing the opposite of current practice. Nor is non-intervention a viable option. There is a need to bring together approaches from the natural and social sciences both to understand the issues and to act to solve real problems. We propose combining a Catchment Systems Engineering (CSE) approach that builds on existing approaches such as Natural Water Retention Measures, Green infrastructure and Nature-Based Solutions with a multi-scale framework for decision support that has been successfully applied to diffuse pollution and flood risk management. The CSE philosophy follows that of Earth Systems Engineering and Management, which aims to engineer and manage complex coupled human-natural systems in a highly integrated, rational manner. CSE is multi-disciplinary, and necessarily involves a wide range of subject areas including anthropology, engineering, environmental science, ethics and philosophy. It offers a rational approach which accepts the fact that we need to engineer and act to improve the functioning of the existing catchment entity on which we rely. The decision support framework proposed draws on physical and mathematical modelling; Participatory Action Research; and demonstration sites at which practical interventions are implemented. It is predicated on the need to work with stakeholders to co-produce knowledge that leads to proactive interventions to reverse the land degradation we observe today while sustaining the agriculture humanity needs. The philosophy behind CSE and examples of where it has been applied successfully are presented. The Decision Support Matrix

  4. The hole picture: risks, decision making, purpose, regulations, and the future of body piercing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Myrna L; Koch, Jerome R; Saunders, Jana C; Roberts, Alden E; Owen, Donna C

    2007-01-01

    Can it be said that body piercing is ubiquitous, found across all socioeconomic groups? The major concentration is among adolescents and young adults 15 to 30 years old, in some studies, 50% of the population. Commonly identified physical risks are bleeding, tissue trauma, and bacterial infections; psychosocial risks are unhappiness, low self-esteem, and disappointment. The Health Belief Model is used to explain decision making; purposes for body piercing consistently center on personal expression (self-identity) and uniqueness. The international and US body piercing regulations are discussed, leading to the need for tracking complications globally and standardization of regulations. Proactive health education for clients and health providers remains a priority.

  5. The future energy supply of the Free State of Saxony from the view of the environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinfried, D.

    1994-01-01

    In the paper the perspective of the various forms of energy for the energy-supply of Saxony is explained. The future application-field of the native coal is extensively described. The modernisation of the power-stations is considered as an great challenge for Saxony. Structural decisions had to be made in this connection. The special activities are seen in a close connection with the necessary global CO 2 -reduction. (orig.) [de

  6. A probabilistic approach to examine the impacts of mitigation policies on future global PM emissions from on-road vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D. G.

    2012-12-01

    There is deficiency in the determination of emission reduction potential in the future, especially with consideration of uncertainty. Mitigation measures for some economic sectors have been proposed, but few studies provide an evaluation of the amount of PM emission reduction that can be obtained in future years by different emission reduction strategies. We attribute the absence of helpful mitigation strategy analysis to limitations in the technical detail of future emission scenarios, which result in the inability to relate technological or regulatory intervention to emission changes. The purpose of this work is to provide a better understanding of the potential benefits of mitigation policies in addressing global and regional emissions. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic approach to explore the impacts of retrofit and scrappage on global PM emissions from on-road vehicles in the coming decades. This approach includes scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. A dynamic model of vehicle population linked to emission characteristics, SPEW-Trend, is used to estimate future emissions and make policy evaluations. Three basic questions will be answered in this work: (1) what contribution can these two programs make to improve global emissions in the future? (2) in which regions are such programs most and least effective in reducing emissions and what features of the vehicle fleet cause these results? (3) what is the level of confidence in the projected emission reductions, given uncertain parameters in describing the dynamic vehicle fleet?

  7. Do political variables affect fiscal policy adjustment decisions? New empirical evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mierau, Jochen O.; Jong-A-Pin, Richard; de Haan, Jakob

    2007-01-01

    We test eight hypotheses on political factors influencing the likelihood that a fiscal policy adjustment occurs. We employ a panel discrete choice model for 20 OECD countries for the period 1970-2003. Two different definitions of fiscal adjustments are used to capture the differences between rapid

  8. Discourses, Decisions, Designs: "Special" Education Policy-Making in New South Wales, Scotland, Finland and Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, Pei Wen; Graham, Linda J.

    2017-01-01

    This comparative analysis investigates the influence of neo-liberal and inclusive discourses in "special" education policy-making in New South Wales, Scotland, Finland and Malaysia. The centrality of competition, selectivity and accountability in the discourses used in New South Wales and Malaysia suggests a system preference for…

  9. Forum 'North Rhine-Westphalia fit for the future'.- Energy sources seminar - the local governments' contribution to establishing a future-oriented energy policy 'from below'. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naegel, W.

    1997-01-01

    On October 9, 1997, a seminar on energy sources was held in Duesseldorf within the framework of the programme of the academy for nature conservation and environmental protection (NUA) of North Rhine-Westphalia. The topic of the meeting, 'local governments' contributions to establishing a future-oriented energy policy from below' gathered representatives and lecturers from local authorities, electric utilities, planning and consultancy firms, political bodies and environmental associations. Papers presented to the seminar have been indexed and analysed for separate retrieval from the database. (orig./CB) [de

  10. Debated agronomy: public discourse and the future of biotechnology policy in Ghana

    OpenAIRE

    Braimah, Joseph A.; Atuoye, Kilian N.; Vercillo, Siera; Warring, Carrie; Luginaah, Isaac

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT This paper examines the highly contested and ongoing biotechnology (Bt) policy-making process in Ghana. We analyse media content on how Bt is viewed in the context of Ghana’s parliamentary debate on the Plant Breeders Bill and within the broader public policy-making literature. This paper does not seek to take a position on Bt or the Bill, but to understand how policy actors influence the debate with political and scientific rhetoric in Ghana. The study reveals that in the midst of s...

  11. Adoption of web-based group decision support systems: experiences from the field and future developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jos van Hillegersberg

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available While organizations have massively adopted enterprise information systems to support business processes, business meetings in which key decisions are made about products, services and processes, are usually held without much support of information systems. This is remarkable as group decision support systems (GDSS seems to fit for this purpose. They have existed for decades and modern versions benefit of web-based technologies, enabling low cost any-place, any time and device independent meeting support. In this exploratory case research, we study nine organizations in four different adoption categories to learn more about the reasons for the relatively slow adoption of web-based GDSS. Using the Fit-Viability adoption framework we conduct interviews with organizations that have experience with using GDSS. We conclude that adopting GDSS requires considerable and carefully planned change of processes that are deeply grounded in the organization. Existing meeting routines need to be adapted. Introduction needs to be carefully planned and room for face-to-face meetings and creativity sessions away from the keyboard need to be built in depending on the type of meeting. Not all companies find the cost level affordable. Clear and convincing business cases are lacking. Still the added value is ranked highly and there are frequent and enthusiastic user organizations that may lead the way for others. Their success stories show others how to mitigate problems.

  12. Future of Earthquake Early Warning: Quantifying Uncertainty and Making Fast Automated Decisions for Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Stephen

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications. Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake. To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that

  13. Perspectives of policy and political decision makers on access to formal dementia care: expert interviews in eight European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broda, Anja; Bieber, Anja; Meyer, Gabriele; Hopper, Louise; Joyce, Rachael; Irving, Kate; Zanetti, Orazio; Portolani, Elisa; Kerpershoek, Liselot; Verhey, Frans; Vugt, Marjolein de; Wolfs, Claire; Eriksen, Siren; Røsvik, Janne; Marques, Maria J; Gonçalves-Pereira, Manuel; Sjölund, Britt-Marie; Woods, Bob; Jelley, Hannah; Orrell, Martin; Stephan, Astrid

    2017-08-03

    As part of the ActifCare (ACcess to Timely Formal Care) project, we conducted expert interviews in eight European countries with policy and political decision makers, or representatives of relevant institutions, to determine their perspectives on access to formal care for people with dementia and their carers. Each ActifCare country (Germany, Ireland, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, United Kingdom) conducted semi-structured interviews with 4-7 experts (total N = 38). The interview guide addressed the topics "Complexity and Continuity of Care", "Formal Services", and "Public Awareness". Country-specific analysis of interview transcripts used an inductive qualitative content analysis. Cross-national synthesis focused on similarities in themes across the ActifCare countries. The analysis revealed ten common themes and two additional sub-themes across countries. Among others, the experts highlighted the need for a coordinating role and the necessity of information to address issues of complexity and continuity of care, demanded person-centred, tailored, and multidisciplinary formal services, and referred to education, mass media and campaigns as means to raise public awareness. Policy and political decision makers appear well acquainted with current discussions among both researchers and practitioners of possible approaches to improve access to dementia care. Experts described pragmatic, realistic strategies to influence dementia care. Suggested innovations concerned how to achieve improved dementia care, rather than transforming the nature of the services provided. Knowledge gained in these expert interviews may be useful to national decision makers when they consider reshaping the organisation of dementia care, and may thus help to develop best-practice strategies and recommendations.

  14. The Future Role of U.S. Trade Policy: An Overview

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Morrison, Wayne M; Cooper, William H

    2008-01-01

    ... and some have exited the market or relocated overseas. Some observers contend that, in order to remain globally competitive, the United States must continue to support trade liberalization policies, while assisting those hurt by trade...

  15. A lexicographic approach to language policy and recommendations for future dictionaries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tarp, Sven; Gouws, Rufus H.

    2008-01-01

    Language policy prevails at different levels and its formulation typically results in a prescriptive presentation of data. In their dictionaries, lexicographers have to respond to the deci­sions of language policy makers. In this regard dictionaries can adhere to a strict prescriptive policy...... by including only the prescribed forms. Dictionaries can also give a descriptive account of lan­guage use without making any recommendations or claims of correctness. Thirdly, dictionaries can be proscriptive by recommending certain forms, even if such a recommendation goes against the prescribed forms....... This article offers an overview of different levels of language policy and the prin­ciples of prescription, description and proscription. Examples are given to illustrate certain lexico­graphic applications of prescription. It is emphasised that access to relevant data is important to dictionary users...

  16. Learning from the Past for Future Policy: Approaches to Time-series ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Western Indian Ocean Journal of Marine Science ... The Food and Agricultrual Organization (FAO) compiles statistical reports from its member countries, ... management policies on resource conservation for the benefit of coastal communities.

  17. Development of an integrated model for the Campaspe catchment: a tool to help improve understanding of the interaction between society, policy, farming decision, ecology, hydrology and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwanaga, Takuya; Zare, Fateme; Croke, Barry; Fu, Baihua; Merritt, Wendy; Partington, Daniel; Ticehurst, Jenifer; Jakeman, Anthony

    2018-06-01

    Management of water resources requires understanding of the hydrology and hydrogeology, as well as the policy and human drivers and their impacts. This understanding requires relevant inputs from a wide range of disciplines, which will vary depending on the specific case study. One approach to gain understanding of the impact of climate and society on water resources is through the use of an integrated modelling process that engages stakeholders and experts in specifics of problem framing, co-design of the underpinning conceptual model, and discussion of the ensuing results. In this study, we have developed such an integrated modelling process for the Campaspe basin in northern Victoria, Australia. The numerical model built has a number of components: - Node/link based surface water hydrology module based on the IHACRES rainfall-streamflow model - Distributed groundwater model for the lower catchment (MODFLOW) - Farm decision optimisation module (to determine irrigation requirements) - Policy module (setting conditions on availability of water based on existing rules) - Ecology module (determining the impacts of available streamflow on platypus, fish and river red gum trees) The integrated model is component based and has been developed in Python, with the MODFLOW and surface water hydrology model run in external programs, controlled by the master program (in Python). The integrated model has been calibrated using historical data, with the intention of exploring the impact of various scenarios (future climate scenarios, different policy options, water management options) on the water resources. The scenarios were selected based on workshops with, and a social survey of, stakeholders in the basin regarding what would be socially acceptable and physically plausible options for changes in management. An example of such a change is the introduction of a managed aquifer recharge system to capture dam overflows, and store at least a portion of this in the aquifer

  18. Policy responses to problematic video game use: A systematic review of current measures and future possibilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Király, Orsolya; Griffiths, Mark D; King, Daniel L; Lee, Hae-Kook; Lee, Seung-Yup; Bányai, Fanni; Zsila, Ágnes; Takacs, Zsofia K; Demetrovics, Zsolt

    2017-09-01

    Background and aims Empirical research into problematic video game playing suggests that overuse might cause functional and psychological impairments for a minority of gamers. Therefore, the need for regulation in the case of video games (whether governmental or self-imposed) has arisen but has only been implemented in a few countries around the world, and predominantly in Asia. This paper provides a systematic review of current and potential policies addressing problematic gaming. Methods After conducting a systematic search in the areas of prevention, treatment, and policy measures relating to problematic Internet and video game use, papers were selected that targeted problematic gaming policies (N = 12; six in English and six in Korean). These papers served as the basis of this review. Results Policies were classified into three major groups: (i) policy measures limiting availability of video games (e.g., shutdown policy, fatigue system, and parental controls), (ii) measures aiming to reduce risk and harm (e.g., warning messages), and (iii) measures taken to provide help services for gamers. Beyond the attempt to classify the current and potential policy measures, the authors also tried to evaluate their efficiency theoretically and (if data were available) empirically. Discussion and conclusions Overall, it appears that although several steps have been taken to address problematic video game playing, most of these steps were not as effective as expected, or had not been evaluated empirically for efficacy. The reason for this may lie in the fact that the policies outlined only addressed or influenced specific aspects of the problem instead of using a more integrative approach.

  19. Evaluation and Future Direction of Intellectual Property Strategy - Setting out a new intellectual property policy - (Japanese)

    OpenAIRE

    KUGAI Takashi

    2010-01-01

    1. An intellectual property strategy is a policy aimed at improving the international competitiveness of industry and reinvigorating the economy through the creation, protection, and greater use of intellectual property. 2. The realization of IP policies conventionally considered difficult to implement and greater awareness of intellectual property at all levels of society, as demonstrated the establishment of Intellectual Property High Courts that exclusively and solely handle intellectual p...

  20. Decision-Support System for Urban Air Pollution under Future Climate Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Jensen , Steen ,; Brandt , Jørgen; Hvidberg , Martin; Ketzel , Matthias; Hedegaard , Gitte ,; Christensen , Jens ,

    2011-01-01

    Part 6: Climate Services and Environmental Tools for Urban Planning and Climate Change Applications and Services; International audience; Climate change is expected to influence urban living conditions and challenge the ability of cities to adapt to and mitigate climate change. Urban climates will be faced with elevated temperatures and future climate conditions are expected to cause higher ozone concentrations, increased biogenic emissions from vegetation, changes in the chemistry of the atm...