From Population Databases to Research and Informed Health Decisions and Policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Machluf, Yossy; Tal, Orna; Navon, Amir; Chaiter, Yoram

2017-01-01

In the era of big data, the medical community is inspired to maximize the utilization and processing of the rapidly expanding medical datasets for clinical-related and policy-driven research. This requires a medical database that can be aggregated, interpreted, and integrated at both the individual and population levels. Policymakers seek data as a lever for wise, evidence-based decision-making and information-driven policy. Yet, bridging the gap between data collection, research, and policymaking, is a major challenge. To bridge this gap, we propose a four-step model: (A) creating a conjoined task force of all relevant parties to declare a national program to promote collaborations; (B) promoting a national digital records project, or at least a network of synchronized and integrated databases, in an accessible transparent manner; (C) creating an interoperative national research environment to enable the analysis of the organized and integrated data and to generate evidence; and (D) utilizing the evidence to improve decision-making, to support a wisely chosen national policy. For the latter purpose, we also developed a novel multidimensional set of criteria to illuminate insights and estimate the risk for future morbidity based on current medical conditions. Used by policymakers, providers of health plans, caregivers, and health organizations, we presume this model will assist transforming evidence generation to support the design of health policy and programs, as well as improved decision-making about health and health care, at all levels: individual, communal, organizational, and national.

Designing evaluation studies to optimally inform policy: what factors do policy-makers in China consider when making resource allocation decisions on healthcare worker training programmes?

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Shishi; Legido-Quigley, Helena; Spencer, Julia; Coker, Richard James; Khan, Mishal Sameer

2018-02-23

In light of the gap in evidence to inform future resource allocation decisions about healthcare provider (HCP) training in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and the considerable donor investments being made towards training interventions, evaluation studies that are optimally designed to inform local policy-makers are needed. The aim of our study is to understand what features of HCP training evaluation studies are important for decision-making by policy-makers in LMICs. We investigate the extent to which evaluations based on the widely used Kirkpatrick model - focusing on direct outcomes of training, namely reaction of trainees, learning, behaviour change and improvements in programmatic health indicators - align with policy-makers' evidence needs for resource allocation decisions. We use China as a case study where resource allocation decisions about potential scale-up (using domestic funding) are being made about an externally funded pilot HCP training programme. Qualitative data were collected from high-level officials involved in resource allocation at the national and provincial level in China through ten face-to-face, in-depth interviews and two focus group discussions consisting of ten participants each. Data were analysed manually using an interpretive thematic analysis approach. Our study indicates that Chinese officials not only consider information about the direct outcomes of a training programme, as captured in the Kirkpatrick model, but also need information on the resources required to implement the training, the wider or indirect impacts of training, and the sustainability and scalability to other settings within the country. In addition to considering findings presented in evaluation studies, we found that Chinese policy-makers pay close attention to whether the evaluations were robust and to the composition of the evaluation team. Our qualitative study indicates that training programme evaluations that focus narrowly on direct training

Recommendations on future development of decision support systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

MCarthur, Stephen; Chen, Minjiang; Marinelli, Mattia

Deliverable 8.3 reports on the consolidation of experiences from visualisation, decision support prototypes experiments and recommendations on future developments of decision support systems......Deliverable 8.3 reports on the consolidation of experiences from visualisation, decision support prototypes experiments and recommendations on future developments of decision support systems...

From Population Databases to Research and Informed Health Decisions and Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yossy Machluf

2017-09-01

Full Text Available BackgroundIn the era of big data, the medical community is inspired to maximize the utilization and processing of the rapidly expanding medical datasets for clinical-related and policy-driven research. This requires a medical database that can be aggregated, interpreted, and integrated at both the individual and population levels. Policymakers seek data as a lever for wise, evidence-based decision-making and information-driven policy. Yet, bridging the gap between data collection, research, and policymaking, is a major challenge.The modelTo bridge this gap, we propose a four-step model: (A creating a conjoined task force of all relevant parties to declare a national program to promote collaborations; (B promoting a national digital records project, or at least a network of synchronized and integrated databases, in an accessible transparent manner; (C creating an interoperative national research environment to enable the analysis of the organized and integrated data and to generate evidence; and (D utilizing the evidence to improve decision-making, to support a wisely chosen national policy. For the latter purpose, we also developed a novel multidimensional set of criteria to illuminate insights and estimate the risk for future morbidity based on current medical conditions.ConclusionUsed by policymakers, providers of health plans, caregivers, and health organizations, we presume this model will assist transforming evidence generation to support the design of health policy and programs, as well as improved decision-making about health and health care, at all levels: individual, communal, organizational, and national.

The structure of German non-proliferation policy - past and future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, H.

1990-01-01

West German nonproliferation policy has evolved through four phases: First German policy strived to regain the right to nuclear research and industrial development. Then West Germany struggled for participation in NATO nuclear decision-making. Following the conclusion of the NPT, the full development of a mature nuclear industry, including activities in the full fuel cycle, and the promotion of nuclear exports were the focus of national nuclear policy. Starting in the early eighties, political aspects became more important. International security, arms control and disarmament, and foreign reputation had a more prominent role than pure economic interests. In the future, the united Germany must take care not to repeat the sad scandals of the eighties. Its renunciation of nuclear weapons remains a pillar of European stability and a prerequisite for a European peace system. Together with its European partners, Germany can be expected to take a more active, supportive and effective role in international non-proliferation policy. (orig./HSCH) [de

Future Trends in Business Travel Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Mason, Keith J.

2002-01-01

This research surveys twenty large companies and their travellers to identify and evaluate the effects of pressures on the business travel market in the future. The influence of the following areas on the decision making process are addressed: (1) Corporate travel policies and increasing professionalism in corporate purchasing; (2) The development of global strategic airline alliances; (3) The emergence of low cost airlines on short haul markets; and (4) The development of internet based booking tools and travel agency IT. The survey shows differences in views between travel managers, and travellers with regard to corporate travel policies. While travel managers see policy rules, travellers interpret these as guidelines, indicating travel managers will need to take further actions to exercise true control of travel budgets. The data shows that companies are more likely to prescribe a class of airline ticket, than the choice of airline itself. Corporate hierarchical bias in travel policies is still common both for short and particularly long haul flying. Other findings show that while travel managers believe that their companies are likely to sign global deals with strategic airline groups within a five year period in a bid to consolidating spending, they also believe that nearly a third of short haul flying will be taken with low cost carriers, indicating further penetration in this business travel market by these carriers. The paper also provides other predictions about the business travel market, based on the survey findings.

The Future of Federal Education Policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Guthrie, James W.

1983-01-01

This article explores the evolution of federal government policy on education during the past 20 years, points out trends likely to influence future policy, and projects possible future responses to these trends. The roles of educational interest groups instrumental in passing the legislation are described. (PP)

Injury and violence prevention policy: celebrating our successes, protecting our future.

Science.gov (United States)

Koné, Rebecca Greco; Zurick, Elizabeth; Patterson, Sara; Peeples, Amy

2012-09-01

Policy strategies for injury and violence prevention influence systems development, organizational change, social norms, and individual behavior to improve the health and safety of a population. Injury and violence prevention professionals should consider how their issues resonate with various audiences, including policy makers, the public, and other decision makers. As the cost of healthcare continues to rise and greater demands are placed on the healthcare system, the use of public health policy becomes increasingly critical to protect the public's health and prevent injury and violence and its related morbidities and disabilities (Degutis, 2011). This article highlights some impactful policy successes from the field, allows us to reflect on the Injury Center's 20th anniversary, and describes steps to address injuries and violence into the future. The purpose of this paper is to discuss policy as a public health strategy and the critical role it plays in injury and violence prevention. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Immunizing Children: A Qualitative Analysis of Future Parental Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Espeleta, Hannah C; Beasley, Lana O; Ridings, Leigh E; Smith, Tyler J; Shields, Jennifer D

2017-10-01

Vaccinations are considered one of public health's greatest accomplishments. Despite evidence for vaccine effectiveness, uptake levels are still well below the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's guidelines. The immunization decision-making process for parents is complex and depends on factors associated with knowledge and experiences. This qualitative study sought to expand on a previous decision-making model for immunizations by examining how individuals receive vaccination information, determining the role of experience in influencing decisions, and understanding how young adults might locate vaccination information in the future. Three focus groups were conducted with 29 undergraduate students without children. Results suggest that young adults exhibit an awareness of information regarding vaccine use and effectiveness, value doctor opinions and recommendations, and desire more robust research on vaccinations. Implications of these results include the importance of (1) disseminating vaccination education to young adults, (2) enhancing consistency/trust between medical professionals and youth, and (3) expanding public policy to increase vaccine uptake.

Turning the big knob: an evaluation of the use of energy policy to modulate future climate impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pielke, R.A. Jnr.; Klein, R.; Sarewitz, D.

2000-01-01

Conventional wisdom on climate change policy is straightforward: reducing greenhouse gas emissions will avoid the increased frequency and magnitude of climate impacts on environment and society that might occur if emissions are not controlled. The proponents of conventional wisdom widely consider energy policy to be the main policy tool available to decision makers to intentionally modulate future climate impacts. In this paper we challenge the notion that policy makers should intentionally use energy policy to modulate future climate impacts. The paper argues that policy makers may well make large changes in energy policy (and future emissions) without significantly affecting future climate impacts. In other words, even if a theoretical case could be made that energy policy could be used intentionally to modulate future climate, other factors will play a larger role in creating future impact.y and are arguably more amenable to policy change. To illustrate this conclusion, the paper presents a sensitivity analysis under the assumptions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the case of tropical cyclones. One implication of the paper's conclusions is that policy responses to extreme weather events should be decoupled from considerations of energy policy. This decoupling is not intended to diminish either the importance of responding to climate change or of energy policy. Rather, it is to emphasise that there are many responses under the rubric of adaptation that could play a much greater role in reducing societal vulnerability to losses. One of the implications of this change is that scientific uncertainty need not stand in the way of effective action because the measures proposed make sense under any future climate scenario. (author)

Dissolving decision making? : Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.

2014-01-01

This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.

Bridging the gap between evidence and policy for infectious diseases: How models can aid public health decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gwenan M. Knight

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The dominant approach to decision-making in public health policy for infectious diseases relies heavily on expert opinion, which often applies empirical evidence to policy questions in a manner that is neither systematic nor transparent. Although systematic reviews are frequently commissioned to inform specific components of policy (such as efficacy, the same process is rarely applied to the full decision-making process. Mathematical models provide a mechanism through which empirical evidence can be methodically and transparently integrated to address such questions. However, such models are often considered difficult to interpret. In addition, models provide estimates that need to be iteratively re-evaluated as new data or considerations arise. Using the case study of a novel diagnostic for tuberculosis, a framework for improved collaboration between public health decision-makers and mathematical modellers that could lead to more transparent and evidence-driven policy decisions for infectious diseases in the future is proposed. The framework proposes that policymakers should establish long-term collaborations with modellers to address key questions, and that modellers should strive to provide clear explanations of the uncertainty of model structure and outputs. Doing so will improve the applicability of models and clarify their limitations when used to inform real-world public health policy decisions.

The Science-Policy Link: Stakeholder Reactions to the Uncertainties of Future Sea Level Rise

Science.gov (United States)

Plag, H.; Bye, B.

2011-12-01

Policy makers and stakeholders in the coastal zone are equally challenged by the risk of an anticipated rise of coastal Local Sea Level (LSL) as a consequence of future global warming. Many low-lying and often densely populated coastal areas are under risk of increased inundation. More than 40% of the global population is living in or near the coastal zone and this fraction is steadily increasing. A rise in LSL will increase the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure and population dramatically, with potentially devastating consequences for the global economy, society, and environment. Policy makers are faced with a trade-off between imposing today the often very high costs of coastal protection and adaptation upon national economies and leaving the costs of potential major disasters to future generations. They are in need of actionable information that provides guidance for the development of coastal zones resilient to future sea level changes. Part of this actionable information comes from risk and vulnerability assessments, which require information on future LSL changes as input. In most cases, a deterministic approach has been applied based on predictions of the plausible range of future LSL trajectories as input. However, there is little consensus in the scientific community on how these trajectories should be determined, and what the boundaries of the plausible range are. Over the last few years, many publications in Science, Nature and other peer-reviewed scientific journals have revealed a broad range of possible futures and significant epistemic uncertainties and gaps concerning LSL changes. Based on the somewhat diffuse science input, policy and decision makers have made rather different choices for mitigation and adaptation in cases such as Venice, The Netherlands, New York City, and the San Francisco Bay area. Replacing the deterministic, prediction-based approach with a statistical one that fully accounts for the uncertainties and epistemic gaps

The future of hydropower in Europe: Interconnecting climate, markets and policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gaudard, Ludovic; Romerio, Franco

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Connecting the knowledges from various domains, in particular economics, engineering, policy and hydrology. • Giving the keys to assess the linking between hydropower, climate and electricity market. • Making an overall analysis. - Abstract: Hydropower is very important for electricity supply security in the European inter-connexion as well as for the economy of regions (primarily peripheral) that possess water resources. Its future may however be jeopardized by several factors: climate change, the development of new renewable energy, the creation of super and micro-grids, and progress in power storage technology. Energy and climate policy, as well as electricity market design and dynamics play a pivotal role. This article carries out a comprehensive analysis of all these factors and discusses the future of hydropower. This discussion follows an overview of the present situation and of future drivers. The technical, environmental, economic and political aspects of the problem are analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach. The stakes as well as the uncertainties are highlighted. The conclusion is that hydropower has a promising future, particularly in light of emerging sustainable energy policy, but that the risks should not be overlooked. Academics will find a comprehensive interdisciplinary analysis of hydropower in this article, whereas public bodies, communities and hydropower companies can identify the strategic variables that should be taken into consideration in the decision making process. The end of water concessions or authorizations is also evoked

Moving towards tangible decision-making tools for policy makers: Measuring and monitoring energy access provision

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhanot, Jaya; Jha, Vivek

2012-01-01

Access to energy services has been recognised as central to achieving economic growth and sustainable development. However, almost 1.3 billion people in the world still lack access to electricity and 2.7 billion lack access to clean cooking facilities. In this backdrop, the issue of energy access is receiving more interest than ever before and this has brought to the fore, the need for a robust decision support tool for policy makers to measure the progress of energy access provision and also to provide direction for future policy making. The paper studies existing definitions of energy access and identifies the key requirements for an appropriate decision-making tool to measure and monitor energy access provision. In this context the paper assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the metrics currently being used to measure energy access in policy, as well as of contemporary monitoring and evaluation frameworks being used in other sectors. Based on these insights, a dashboard of indicators is proposed as an alternate decision support tool for policy makers to measure energy access. The paper concludes with a discussion on what is needed to operationalise this proposed framework. - Highlights: ► No one indicator or metric can successfully capture progress on energy access. ► A service oriented approach is necessary to measure energy access. ► Socio-economic and political contexts influence success of energy access policies.

Lusatian lignite. Decisions for the future; Lausitzer Braunkohle. Entscheidungen fuer die Zukunft

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daehnert, Detlev [Vattenfall Europe Mining AG, Cottbus (Germany); Vattenfall Europe Generation AG und Co. KG, Cottbus (Germany); Ketzmer, Wolfgang [Vattenfall Europe Generation AG und Co. KG, Cottbus (Germany)

2008-07-15

During the past months a number of important decisions regarding the future of the Lusatian lignite mining areas have been made or launched. In the focus is the concept of the long-term opencast mine and power plant development. Essential part of the concept is the strategy for meeting future challenges of climate change policy. CCS is the key for it. It is expected, that the CCS technology will be commercially available after 2020. Another important aspect is among others the use of the priority areas of the Welzow-Sued and Nochten opencast mined. The corresponding long-term lignite mining planning procedures were opened in autumn 2007. The plans of the company contain clear and reliable statements regarding the long-term opencast mine development until 2050. However, all decisions the company makes are focussing on putting people and their needs first. Solutions for mining related questions and requirements are jointly developed with the people of the region. Communities in direct neighbourhood to opencast mines are safely protected against immissions by structural and organisational measures. The principles of socially responsible resettlements set the framework of constructive and trustful co-acting of the people concerned and the company very early. The future post-mining landscape offers alternative utilization forms providing employment for many people. Economic development of the region is an important aspect of the company's activities. Under the headline ''Energy region Lusatia'', representatives of Vattenfall, different educational institutions, authorities and the politics have joined forces to formulate a strategic target for the future development of Lusatia. Sustainable development of lignite-based power generation to meet future climate change policy, development of energy industrial know-how and the use of other fuels are important issues. The results are visible. Lignite takes a solid place in the German Energy mix - it

Special interest in decision making in entrepreneurship policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bager, Torben; Klyver, Kim; Schou Nielsen, Pia

2015-01-01

The study investigates the role of the special interests of key decision makers in entrepreneurship policy formation at the national level. An ethnographic method is applied to analyse in depth the 2005 decision by the Danish Government to shift from volume oriented to growth oriented...... entrepreneurship policy. The theoretical value of this paper is its challenge to the widespread rationality view in the entrepreneurship field and a deepened understanding of how the pursuit of special interests is related to ambiguous evidence and system-level rationality....

Assessing Patient Participation in Health Policy Decision-Making in Cyprus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyriakos Souliotis

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Although the importance of patient participation in the design and evaluation of health programs and services is well-documented, there is scarcity of research with regard to patient association (PA participation in health policy decision-making processes. To this end, the present study aimed to validate further a previously developed instrument as well as to investigate the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making in Cyprus. A convenient sample of 114 patients-members of patients associations took part in the study. Participants were recruited from an umbrella organization, the Pancyprian Federation of Patient Associations and Friends (PFPA. PA participation in health policy decision-making was assessed with the Health Democracy Index (HDI, an original 8-item tool. To explore its psychometric properties, Cronbach α was computed as regards to its internal consistency, while its convergent validity was tested against a self-rated question enquiring about the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making. The findings revealed that the HDI has good internal consistency and convergent validity. Furthermore, PAs were found to participate more in consultations in health-related organizations and the Ministry of Health (MoH as well as in reforms or crucial decisions in health policy. Lower levels were documented with regard to participation in hospital boards, ethics committees in clinical trials and health technology assessment (HTA procedures. Overall, PA participation levels were found to be lower than the mid-point of the scale. Targeted interventions aiming to facilitate patients’ involvement in health policy decision-making processes and to increase its impact are greatly needed in Cyprus.

Assessing Patient Participation in Health Policy Decision-Making in Cyprus.

Science.gov (United States)

Souliotis, Kyriakos; Agapidaki, Eirini; Peppou, Lily Evangelia; Tzavara, Chara; Samoutis, George; Theodorou, Mamas

2016-06-20

Although the importance of patient participation in the design and evaluation of health programs and services is well-documented, there is scarcity of research with regard to patient association (PA) participation in health policy decision-making processes. To this end, the present study aimed to validate further a previously developed instrument as well as to investigate the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making in Cyprus. A convenient sample of 114 patients-members of patients associations took part in the study. Participants were recruited from an umbrella organization, the Pancyprian Federation of Patient Associations and Friends (PFPA). PA participation in health policy decision-making was assessed with the Health Democracy Index (HDI), an original 8-item tool. To explore its psychometric properties, Cronbach α was computed as regards to its internal consistency, while its convergent validity was tested against a self-rated question enquiring about the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making. The findings revealed that the HDI has good internal consistency and convergent validity. Furthermore, PAs were found to participate more in consultations in health-related organizations and the Ministry of Health (MoH) as well as in reforms or crucial decisions in health policy. Lower levels were documented with regard to participation in hospital boards, ethics committees in clinical trials and health technology assessment (HTA) procedures. Overall, PA participation levels were found to be lower than the mid-point of the scale. Targeted interventions aiming to facilitate patients' involvement in health policy decision-making processes and to increase its impact are greatly needed in Cyprus. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

Rationality versus reality: the challenges of evidence-based decision making for health policy makers.

Science.gov (United States)

McCaughey, Deirdre; Bruning, Nealia S

2010-05-26

Current healthcare systems have extended the evidence-based medicine (EBM) approach to health policy and delivery decisions, such as access-to-care, healthcare funding and health program continuance, through attempts to integrate valid and reliable evidence into the decision making process. These policy decisions have major impacts on society and have high personal and financial costs associated with those decisions. Decision models such as these function under a shared assumption of rational choice and utility maximization in the decision-making process. We contend that health policy decision makers are generally unable to attain the basic goals of evidence-based decision making (EBDM) and evidence-based policy making (EBPM) because humans make decisions with their naturally limited, faulty, and biased decision-making processes. A cognitive information processing framework is presented to support this argument, and subtle cognitive processing mechanisms are introduced to support the focal thesis: health policy makers' decisions are influenced by the subjective manner in which they individually process decision-relevant information rather than on the objective merits of the evidence alone. As such, subsequent health policy decisions do not necessarily achieve the goals of evidence-based policy making, such as maximizing health outcomes for society based on valid and reliable research evidence. In this era of increasing adoption of evidence-based healthcare models, the rational choice, utility maximizing assumptions in EBDM and EBPM, must be critically evaluated to ensure effective and high-quality health policy decisions. The cognitive information processing framework presented here will aid health policy decision makers by identifying how their decisions might be subtly influenced by non-rational factors. In this paper, we identify some of the biases and potential intervention points and provide some initial suggestions about how the EBDM/EBPM process can be

Rationality versus reality: the challenges of evidence-based decision making for health policy makers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruning Nealia S

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Current healthcare systems have extended the evidence-based medicine (EBM approach to health policy and delivery decisions, such as access-to-care, healthcare funding and health program continuance, through attempts to integrate valid and reliable evidence into the decision making process. These policy decisions have major impacts on society and have high personal and financial costs associated with those decisions. Decision models such as these function under a shared assumption of rational choice and utility maximization in the decision-making process. Discussion We contend that health policy decision makers are generally unable to attain the basic goals of evidence-based decision making (EBDM and evidence-based policy making (EBPM because humans make decisions with their naturally limited, faulty, and biased decision-making processes. A cognitive information processing framework is presented to support this argument, and subtle cognitive processing mechanisms are introduced to support the focal thesis: health policy makers' decisions are influenced by the subjective manner in which they individually process decision-relevant information rather than on the objective merits of the evidence alone. As such, subsequent health policy decisions do not necessarily achieve the goals of evidence-based policy making, such as maximizing health outcomes for society based on valid and reliable research evidence. Summary In this era of increasing adoption of evidence-based healthcare models, the rational choice, utility maximizing assumptions in EBDM and EBPM, must be critically evaluated to ensure effective and high-quality health policy decisions. The cognitive information processing framework presented here will aid health policy decision makers by identifying how their decisions might be subtly influenced by non-rational factors. In this paper, we identify some of the biases and potential intervention points and provide some initial

Rationality versus reality: the challenges of evidence-based decision making for health policy makers

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

Background Current healthcare systems have extended the evidence-based medicine (EBM) approach to health policy and delivery decisions, such as access-to-care, healthcare funding and health program continuance, through attempts to integrate valid and reliable evidence into the decision making process. These policy decisions have major impacts on society and have high personal and financial costs associated with those decisions. Decision models such as these function under a shared assumption of rational choice and utility maximization in the decision-making process. Discussion We contend that health policy decision makers are generally unable to attain the basic goals of evidence-based decision making (EBDM) and evidence-based policy making (EBPM) because humans make decisions with their naturally limited, faulty, and biased decision-making processes. A cognitive information processing framework is presented to support this argument, and subtle cognitive processing mechanisms are introduced to support the focal thesis: health policy makers' decisions are influenced by the subjective manner in which they individually process decision-relevant information rather than on the objective merits of the evidence alone. As such, subsequent health policy decisions do not necessarily achieve the goals of evidence-based policy making, such as maximizing health outcomes for society based on valid and reliable research evidence. Summary In this era of increasing adoption of evidence-based healthcare models, the rational choice, utility maximizing assumptions in EBDM and EBPM, must be critically evaluated to ensure effective and high-quality health policy decisions. The cognitive information processing framework presented here will aid health policy decision makers by identifying how their decisions might be subtly influenced by non-rational factors. In this paper, we identify some of the biases and potential intervention points and provide some initial suggestions about how the

Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

OpenAIRE

R?muzat, C?cile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, ?sa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aball?a, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

2014-01-01

Background and objective: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm).Methods: A model was built to assess policy sc...

Identification of Optimal Policies in Markov Decision Processes

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sladký, Karel

46 2010, č. 3 (2010), s. 558-570 ISSN 0023-5954. [International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Economy and Industry. České Budějovice, 15.06.2009-18.06.2009] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/0107; GA ČR GA402/07/1113 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : finite state Markov decision processes * discounted and average costs * elimination of suboptimal policies Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.461, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/sladky-identification of optimal policies in markov decision processes.pdf

Introduction to a special section: Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making

OpenAIRE

Karel Haegeman; Jennifer C Harper; Ron Johnston

2010-01-01

Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals, on being able to discern the possible shape of the future: what is likely to influence it, and what can be done to prepare for it. This special section is based on selected papers from the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis, held 16–17 October 2008 at Seville, Spain, which addressed the challenge of increasing the impact of future-oriented technology analysis on policy and dec...

Future-dependent Flow Policies with Prophetic Variables

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Ximeng; Nielson, Flemming; Nielson, Hanne Riis

2016-01-01

future-dependent flow policies- policies that can depend on not only the current values of variables, but also their final values. The final values are referred to using what we call prophetic variables, just as the initial values can be referenced using logical variables in Hoare logic. We develop...... and enforce a notion of future-dependent security for open systems, in the spirit of "non-deducibility on strategies". We also illustrate our approach in scenarios where future-dependency has advantages over present-dependency and avoids mixtures of upgradings and downgradings....

Changing foreign policy: the Obama Administration’s decision to oust Mubarak

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria do Céu Pinto Arena

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract This paper analyses the decision of the Obama administration to redirect its foreign policy towards Egypt in the wake of the Arab Spring. It attempts to highlight the issue of how governments deal with decision-making at times of crisis, and under which circumstances they take critical decisions that lead to major shifts in their foreign policy track record. It focuses on the process that led to a reassessment of US (United States foreign policy, shifting from decades of support to the autocratic regime of Hosni Mubarak, towards backing his ouster. Specifically, the paper attempts to assess to what extent the decision to withdraw US support from a longstanding state-leader and ally in the Middle East can be seen as a foreign policy change (FPC. A relevant research question this paper pursues is: how can the withdrawal of US support to a regime considered as an ally be considered, in itself, as a radical FPC?

Shared decision making in endocrinology: present and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez-Gutierrez, Rene; Gionfriddo, Michael R; Ospina, Naykky Singh; Maraka, Spyridoula; Tamhane, Shrikant; Montori, Victor M; Brito, Juan P

2016-08-01

In medicine and endocrinology, there are few clinical circumstances in which clinicians can accurately predict what is best for their patients. As a result, patients and clinicians frequently have to make decisions about which there is uncertainty. Uncertainty results from limitations in the research evidence, unclear patient preferences, or an inability to predict how treatments will fit into patients' daily lives. The work that patients and clinicians do together to address the patient's situation and engage in a deliberative dialogue about reasonable treatment options is often called shared decision making. Decision aids are evidence-based tools that facilitate this process. Shared decision making is a patient-centred approach in which clinicians share information about the benefits, harms, and burden of different reasonable diagnostic and treatment options, and patients explain what matters to them in view of their particular values, preferences, and personal context. Beyond the ethical argument in support of this approach, decision aids have been shown to improve patients' knowledge about the available options, accuracy of risk estimates, and decisional comfort. Decision aids also promote patient participation in the decision-making process. Despite accumulating evidence from clinical trials, policy support, and expert recommendations in endocrinology practice guidelines, shared decision making is still not routinely implemented in endocrine practice. Additional work is needed to enrich the number of available tools and to implement them in practice workflows. Also, although the evidence from randomised controlled trials favours the use of this shared decision making in other settings, populations, and illnesses, the effect of this approach has been studied in a few endocrine disorders. Future pragmatic trials are needed to explore the effect and feasibility of shared decision making implementation into routine endocrinology and primary care practice. With the

Reimbursement decisions in health policy--extending our understanding of the elements of decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Wirtz, Veronika; Cribb, Alan; Barber, Nick

2005-09-08

Previous theoretical and empirical work on health policy decisions about reimbursement focuses on specific rationales such as effectiveness, economic considerations and equal access for equal needs. As reimbursement decisions take place in a social and political context we propose that the analysis of decision-making should incorporate factors, which go beyond those commonly discussed. As an example we chose three health technologies (sildenafil, rivastigmine and statins) to investigate how decisions about reimbursement of medicines are made in the United Kingdom National Health Service and what factors influence these decisions. From face-to-face, in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of 20 regional and national policy makers and stakeholders we identified two dimensions of decision-making, which extend beyond the rationales conventionally cited. The first dimension relates to the role of 'subjectivity' or 'the personal' in the decisions, including personal experiences of the condition and excitement about the novelty or potential benefit of the technology-these factors affect what counts as evidence, or how evidence is interpreted, in practice. The second dimension relates to the social and political function of decision-making and broadens what counts as the relevant ends of decision-making to include such things as maintaining relationships, avoiding organisational burden, generating politically and legally defensible decisions and demonstrating the willingness to care. More importantly, we will argue that these factors should not be treated as contaminants of an otherwise rational decision-making. On the contrary we suggest that they seem relevant, reasonable and also of substantial importance in considering in decision-making. Complementing the analysis of decision-making about reimbursement by incorporating these factors could increase our understanding and potentially improve decision-making.

Including values in evidence-based policy making for breast screening: An empirically grounded tool to assist expert decision makers.

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Lisa

2017-07-01

Values are an important part of evidence-based decision making for health policy: they guide the type of evidence that is collected, how it is interpreted, and how important the conclusions are considered to be. Experts in breast screening (including clinicians, researchers, consumer advocates and senior administrators) hold differing values in relation to what is important in breast screening policy and practice, and committees may find it difficult to incorporate the complexity and variety of values into policy decisions. The decision making tool provided here is intended to assist with this process. The tool is modified from more general frameworks that are intended to assist with ethical decision making in public health, and informed by data drawn from previous empirical studies on values amongst Australian breast screening experts. It provides a structured format for breast screening committees to consider and discuss the values of themselves and others, suggests relevant topics for further inquiry and highlights areas of need for future research into the values of the public. It enables committees to publicly explain and justify their decisions with reference to values, improving transparency and accountability. It is intended to act alongside practices that seek to accommodate the values of individual women in the informed decision making process for personal decision making about participation in breast screening. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The decisive future of inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Hardwick, Robert J.; Vennin, Vincent; Wands, David

2018-05-01

How much more will we learn about single-field inflationary models in the future? We address this question in the context of Bayesian design and information theory. We develop a novel method to compute the expected utility of deciding between models and apply it to a set of futuristic measurements. This necessarily requires one to evaluate the Bayesian evidence many thousands of times over, which is numerically challenging. We show how this can be done using a number of simplifying assumptions and discuss their validity. We also modify the form of the expected utility, as previously introduced in the literature in different contexts, in order to partition each possible future into either the rejection of models at the level of the maximum likelihood or the decision between models using Bayesian model comparison. We then quantify the ability of future experiments to constrain the reheating temperature and the scalar running. Our approach allows us to discuss possible strategies for maximising information from future cosmological surveys. In particular, our conclusions suggest that, in the context of inflationary model selection, a decrease in the measurement uncertainty of the scalar spectral index would be more decisive than a decrease in the uncertainty in the tensor-to-scalar ratio. We have incorporated our approach into a publicly available python class, foxi,1 that can be readily applied to any survey optimisation problem.

Ethics Instruction for Future Geoscientists: Essential for Contributions to Good Public Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Leinen, M.; Mogk, D. W.

2016-12-01

Geoscientists work in a world of uncertainty in the complex, dynamic, and chaotic Earth system that is fraught with opportunities to become involved in ethical dilemmas. To be effective contributors to the public discourse on Earth science policy, geoscientists must conduct their work according to the highest personal and professional ethical standards. The geosciences as a discipline relies on the fidelity of geoscience data and their interpretations, geoscience concepts and methodologies must be conveyed to policy makers in ways that allow them to make informed decisions, corporations require a workforce that conducts their affairs according to the highest standards, and the general public expects the highest standards of conduct of geoscientists as they underwrite much of the research supported through tax dollars and the applications of this research impacts personal and societal lives. Geoscientists must have the foundations to identify ethical dilemmas in the first instance, and to have the ethical decision-making skills to either prevent, mitigate or otherwise address ethical issues that arise in professional practice. Awareness of ethical issues arises in many dimensions: Ethics and self (engaging self-monitoring and self-regulating behaviors); Ethics and profession (working according to professional standards); Ethics and society (communicating effectively to policy makers and the general public about the underlying science that informs public policy); and, Ethics and Earth (recognizing the unique responsibilities of geoscientists in the stewardship of Earth). To meet these ethical challenges, training of future geoscientists must be done a) at the introductory level as all students should be aware of ethical implications of geoscience concepts as they impact societal issues; undergraduate geoscience majors need to be explicitly trained in the standards and norms of the geoscience community of practice; graduate students need to be fully prepared to deal

Situating School District Resource Decision Making in Policy Context

Science.gov (United States)

Spain, Angeline K.

2016-01-01

Decentralization and deregulation policies assume that local educational leaders make better resource decisions than state policy makers do. Conceptual models drawn from organizational theory, however, offer competing predictions about how district central office administrators are likely to leverage their professional expertise in devolved…

Artificial intelligence and foreign policy decision-making

OpenAIRE

Berkoff, Russ H.

1997-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited With the advent of a global information society, the US will seek to tap the potential of advanced computing capability to enhance its ability to conduct foreign policy decision making. This thesis explores the potential for improving individual and organizational decision making capabilities by means of artificial intelligence (AI). The use of AI will allow us to take advantage of the plethora of information available to obtain an edg...

New institutional mechanisms to bridge the information gap between climate science and public policy decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers, W.; Gulledge, J. M.

2010-12-01

Many decision makers lack actionable scientific information needed to prepare for future challenges associated with climate change. Although the scope and quality of available scientific information has increased dramatically in recent years, this information does not always reach - or is not presented in a form that is useful to - decision makers who need it. The producer (i.e. scientists) community tends to be stovepiped, even though consumers (i.e. decision makers) often need interdisciplinary science and analysis. Consumers, who may also be stovepiped in various agencies or subject areas, may lack familiarity with or access to these separate communities, as well as the tools or time to navigate scientific information and disciplines. Closing the communication gap between these communities could be facilitated by institutionalizing processes designed for this purpose. We recommend a variety of mainstreaming policies within the consumer community, as well as mechanisms to generate a strong demand signal that will resonate more strongly with the producer community. We also recommend institutional reforms and methods of incentivizing policy-oriented scientific analysis within the producer community. Our recommendations focus on improving information flow to national security and foreign policy decision makers, but many are relevant to public policy writ large. Recommendations for Producers 1. The scientific community should formally encourage collaborations between natural and social scientists and reward publications in interdisciplinary outlets Incentives could include research funding and honorary awards recognizing service to public policy. 2. Academic merit review should reward research grants and publications targeted at interdisciplinary and/or policy-oriented audiences. Reforms of merit review may require new policies and engaged institutional leadership. Recommendations for Consumers 1. Congress should amend Title VI of the National Defense Education Act

Decision Strategy Research and Policy Support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardeman, F.

2002-01-01

The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies and policy support is: (1) to investigate the decision making process, with all its relevant dimensions, in the context of radiation protection or other nuclear issues (with particular emphasis on emergency preparedness); (2) to disseminate knowledge on decision making and nuclear emergencies, including the organisation of training courses, the contribution to manuals or guidelines, the participation in working groups or discussion forums; (3) to assist the authorities and the industry on any topic related to radiation protection and to make expertise and infrastructure available; (4) to participate in and contribute to initiatives related to social sciences and their implementation into SCK-CEN; (5) to co-ordinate efforts of SCK-CEN related to medical applications of ionising radiation. Principal achievements in 2001 are described

EU policy objectives and energy investment decisions

OpenAIRE

Alario, Juan

2007-01-01

EU energy policies have changed focus in the last few years with a view to substantially reducing energy import dependency and greenhouse gas emissions. The EU Commission has played a leading role in defining the new orientations. The implementation of the EU policy objectives approved by the Council of March 2007 will require a substantial expansion of energy investments. However, the degree of uncertainty affecting investment decisions remains high, notably in relation to the pricing of CO2...

Optimum equipment maintenance/replacement policy. Part 2: Markov decision approach

Science.gov (United States)

Charng, T.

1982-01-01

Dynamic programming was utilized as an alternative optimization technique to determine an optimal policy over a given time period. According to a joint effect of the probabilistic transition of states and the sequence of decision making, the optimal policy is sought such that a set of decisions optimizes the long-run expected average cost (or profit) per unit time. Provision of an alternative measure for the expected long-run total discounted costs is also considered. A computer program based on the concept of the Markov Decision Process was developed and tested. The program code listing, the statement of a sample problem, and the computed results are presented.

A hierarchical decision aid in a debate on national energy policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Seppaelaeinen, T.; Oehladt, K.; Ruusunen, J.

1985-12-01

A wide public depate on the future energy policy of Finland has been going on for the past few years, and at the moment the discussion is centered around the question whether a new nuclear power plant should be built or not. To clarify the differences between anti-nuclear and pro-nuclear opinions, a decision analysis of the issue was conducted with a microcomputer-based decision aid which utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The participants representing the opposite opinions were the Minister of Finance and a chief industrial executive. This paper presents the preference profiles of the participants and sensitivity analyses of the results, and discusses the implications of the results for the depate. Essential sources of opinion differences are pointed out and a deeper understanding of the issue is gained. This enables focusing the depate on the critical questions and elimination of less important criteria, which otherwise might receive disproportonate attention

A Monte Carlo based decision-support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a novel decision-support tool for assessing future generation portfolios in an increasingly uncertain electricity industry. The tool combines optimal generation mix concepts with Monte Carlo simulation and portfolio analysis techniques to determine expected overall industry costs, associated cost uncertainty, and expected CO 2 emissions for different generation portfolio mixes. The tool can incorporate complex and correlated probability distributions for estimated future fossil-fuel costs, carbon prices, plant investment costs, and demand, including price elasticity impacts. The intent of this tool is to facilitate risk-weighted generation investment and associated policy decision-making given uncertainties facing the electricity industry. Applications of this tool are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with coal, CCGT, and OCGT facing future uncertainties. Results highlight some significant generation investment challenges, including the impacts of uncertain and correlated carbon and fossil-fuel prices, the role of future demand changes in response to electricity prices, and the impact of construction cost uncertainties on capital intensive generation. The tool can incorporate virtually any type of input probability distribution, and support sophisticated risk assessments of different portfolios, including downside economic risks. It can also assess portfolios against multi-criterion objectives such as greenhouse emissions as well as overall industry costs. - Highlights: ► Present a decision support tool to assist generation investment and policy making under uncertainty. ► Generation portfolios are assessed based on their expected costs, risks, and CO 2 emissions. ► There is tradeoff among expected cost, risks, and CO 2 emissions of generation portfolios. ► Investment challenges include economic impact of uncertainties and the effect of price elasticity. ► CO 2 emissions reduction depends on the mix of

Decision Strategy Research and Policy Support

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hardeman, F

2002-04-01

The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies and policy support is: (1) to investigate the decision making process, with all its relevant dimensions, in the context of radiation protection or other nuclear issues (with particular emphasis on emergency preparedness); (2) to disseminate knowledge on decision making and nuclear emergencies, including the organisation of training courses, the contribution to manuals or guidelines, the participation in working groups or discussion forums; (3) to assist the authorities and the industry on any topic related to radiation protection and to make expertise and infrastructure available; (4) to participate in and contribute to initiatives related to social sciences and their implementation into SCK-CEN; (5) to co-ordinate efforts of SCK-CEN related to medical applications of ionising radiation. Principal achievements in 2001 are described.

Smoke-free air policies: past, present and future.

Science.gov (United States)

Hyland, Andrew; Barnoya, Joaquin; Corral, Juan E

2012-03-01

Smoke-free policies have been an important tobacco control intervention. As recently as 20 years ago, few communities required workplaces and hospitality venues to be smoke-free, but today approximately 11% of the world's population live in countries with laws that require these places to be smoke-free. This paper briefly summarises important milestones in the history of indoor smoke-free policies, the role of scientific research in facilitating their adoption, a framework for smoke-free policy evaluation and industry efforts to undermine regulations. At present, smoke-free policies centre on workplaces, restaurants and pubs. In addition, many jurisdictions are now beginning to implement policies in outdoor areas and in shared multiunit housing settings. The future of smoke-free policy development depends on credible scientific data that documents the health risks of secondhand smoke exposure. Over the next 20 years smoke-free policies will very likely extend to outdoor and private areas, and changes in the types of tobacco products that are consumed may also have implications for the nature and scope of the smoke-free policies of the future.

Decision making in energy policies with conflicting interests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, O.

1988-01-01

After the accident in Chernobyl policy making and implementation of energy decisions have become more difficult than ever. On the one hand the public reacts with fear and opposition to a possible extention of nuclear power, on the other hand the economic prosperity of a country depends on an inexpensive and non-exhaustive energy source like nuclear energy. The paper describes a concept of energy planning developed by a study group of the Nuclear Research Centre in Julich (FRG). The concept is based on the idea that in a pluralistic society different social groups should participate in the policy formulation process and that the values of the public should be incorporated in the weighting process to make choices between given options. As reference theory the basic framework of decision analysis is used. (orig./DG)

Assumptions and Policy Decisions for Vital Area Identification Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Myungsu; Bae, Yeon-Kyoung; Lee, Youngseung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and IAEA guidance indicate that certain assumptions and policy questions should be addressed to a Vital Area Identification (VAI) process. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power conducted a VAI based on current Design Basis Threat and engineering judgement to identify APR1400 vital areas. Some of the assumptions were inherited from Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a sabotage logic model was based on PSA logic tree and equipment location data. This paper illustrates some important assumptions and policy decisions for APR1400 VAI analysis. Assumptions and policy decisions could be overlooked at the beginning stage of VAI, however they should be carefully reviewed and discussed among engineers, plant operators, and regulators. Through APR1400 VAI process, some of the policy concerns and assumptions for analysis were applied based on document research and expert panel discussions. It was also found that there are more assumptions to define for further studies for other types of nuclear power plants. One of the assumptions is mission time, which was inherited from PSA.

Developing policy analytics for public health strategy and decisions-the Sheffield alcohol policy model framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel

This paper sets out the development of a methodological framework for detailed evaluation of public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction to meet UK policy-makers needs. Alcohol is known to cause substantial harms, and controlling its affordability and availability are effective policy options. Analysis and synthesis of a variety of public and commercial data sources is needed to evaluate impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers and industry, so a sound evaluation of impact is important. We discuss the iterative process to engage with stakeholders, identify evidence/data and develop analytic approaches and produce a final model structure. We set out a series of steps in modelling impact including: classification and definition of population subgroups of interest, identification and definition of harms and outcomes for inclusion, classification of modifiable components of risk and their baseline values, specification of the baseline position on policy variables especially prices, estimating effects of changing policy variables on risk factors including price elasticities, quantifying risk functions relating risk factors to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and monetary valuation. The most difficult model structuring decisions are described, as well as the final results framework used to provide decision support to national level policymakers in the UK. In the discussion we explore issues around the relationship between modelling and policy debates, valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions. We reflect on the approach taken and outline ongoing plans for further development.

Communication among scientists, decision makers and society: Developing policy-relevant global climate change research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernabo, J.C.

1995-01-01

Defining the research most relevant to policy is not simply a technical task that can be answered by scientists. Decision makers need and value information differently than curiosity-driven scientists. In order to link science more effectively to policy, the two communities must gain a greater mutual understanding. Decision makers must define their needs so that scientists can determine how, and by when, research can address these needs. This vital dialogue between communities typically has been more ad hoc than systematic. The complexity and urgency of the global climate change issue necessitate ongoing communication between scientists and decision makers on the information needed for policy development and what research can provide The results of relevant science policy dialogues are discussed herein. Effective communication between researchers and decision makers is a crucial ingredient for successfully addressing society's pressing environmental concerns. The increase in policy makers' demands for research that is relevant to solving societal issues highlights the communication gap between the technical and policy communities. The gap, largely caused by lack of mutual understanding, results in flawed and inadequate communication that hinders decision making and confuses the public. This paper examines the cause of this communication gap and describes the significance of recent efforts to develop more fruitful science-policy dialogues on the issue of global climate change. First, the post-Cold War shift in government priorities for research funding is described; then the underlying relationship between science and policy is explored to identify key sources of ongoing mis-communication. The paper then explains the importance of defining policy-relevant science questions that research can address. Finally, three projects are described involving the elicitation of decision makers' information needs in The United States, The Netherlands, and internationally

Exploring the science–policy interface on climate change: The role of the IPCC in informing local decision-making in the UK

OpenAIRE

Candice Howarth; James Painter

2016-01-01

Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) review of\\ud how to make its Assessment Reports (ARs) more accessible in the future, the research\\ud reported here assesses the extent to which the ARs are a useful tool through which scientific\\ud advice informs local decision-making on climate change in the United Kingdom. Results from\\ud interviews with local policy representatives and three workshops with UK academics, practitioners\\ud and local decision makers are present...

Does future-oriented thinking predict adolescent decision making?

Science.gov (United States)

Eskritt, Michelle; Doucette, Jesslyn; Robitaille, Lori

2014-01-01

A number of theorists, as well as plain common sense, suggest that future-oriented thinking (FOT) should be involved in decision making; therefore, the development of FOT should be related to better quality decision making. FOT and quality of the decision making were measured in adolescents as well as adults in 2 different experiments. Though the results of the first experiment revealed an increase in quality of decision making across adolescence into adulthood, there was no relationship between FOT and decision making. In the second experiment, FOT predicted performance on a more deliberative decision-making task independent of age, but not performance on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Performance on the IGT was instead related to emotion regulation. The study's findings suggest that FOT can be related to reflective decision making but not necessarily decision making that is more intuitive.

Improving societal acceptance of rad waste management policy decisions: an approach based on complex intelligence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rao, Suman

2008-01-01

In today's context elaborate public participation exercises are conducted around the world to elicit and incorporate societal risk perceptions into nuclear policy Decision-Making. However, on many occasions, such as in the case of rad waste management, the society remains unconvinced about these decisions. This naturally leads to the questions: are techniques for incorporating societal risk perceptions into the rad waste policy decision making processes sufficiently mature? How could societal risk perceptions and legal normative principles be better integrated in order to render the decisions more equitable and convincing to society? Based on guidance from socio-psychological research this paper postulates that a critical factor for gaining/improving societal acceptance is the quality and adequacy of criteria for option evaluation that are used in the policy decision making. After surveying three rad waste public participation cases, the paper identifies key lacunae in criteria abstraction processes as currently practiced. A new policy decision support model CIRDA: Complex Intelligent Risk Discourse Abstraction model that is based on the heuristic of Risk-Risk Analysis is proposed to overcome these lacunae. CIRDA's functionality of rad waste policy decision making is modelled as a policy decision-making Abstract Intelligent Agent and the agent program/abstraction mappings are presented. CIRDA is then applied to a live (U.K.) rad waste management case and the advantages of this method as compared to the Value Tree Method as practiced in the GB case are demonstrated. (author)

Understanding farmers' strategic decision-making processes and the implications for biodiversity conservation policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Farmar-Bowers, Quentin; Lane, Ruth

2009-02-01

The conservation of biodiversity is an important issue world wide and in Australia the maintenance of native biodiversity on farms makes an important contribution to overall conservation objectives. This paper seeks to explain Australian farmers' rationale for maintaining biodiversity on their farms for personal as opposed to business reasons by developing a decision-systems theory from in-depth interviews. This difference has implications for policy development. The decision-systems theory is divided into two main sections. The first section contains five parts. (1) A hierarchy of motivation stories, (2) the concept of suitability and availability of opportunities, (3) a hierarchy of three decision-systems, (4) the concept of personal career paths, (5) the concept of Lenses. The second section contains one part, a policy classification system called 'boxes of influence' that suggests how policy developers can use the information in the first section to develop new biodiversity conservation policy. The paper suggests that decision-systems theory could be used to shed new light on current trends in agriculture and become an important investigative tool for policy development concerning the conservation of biodiversity on farms.

Integrated Modeling of Water Policy Futures in the Imperial-Mexicali Valleys

Science.gov (United States)

Kjelland, M. K.; Forster, C. B.; Grant, W. E.; Collins, K.

2004-12-01

planners and residents of the IMVs are to make sound socioeconomic and environmental policy decisions. We use a spatially-explicit, stochastic, simulation compartment model (based on difference equations with a daily time step programmed with STELLAr software) to simulate the hydrologic system that underlies our broader modeling of the socioeconomic and environmental future of the IMVs. Alternative future scenarios are defined and used to explore the hydrologic and environmental implications of variations in future Colorado River flows, and various water-related policy decisions. The results of a suite of simulations, made assuming that the Sea is not impounded in small sub-Seas, suggest that the salinity of the Salton Sea is most likely to continue increasing. If this is the case, and if restoration of the Salton Sea continues to be a high priority, then more aggressive water conservation methods or a much smaller Salton Sea will be required. More aggressive conservation will lead to greater socioeconomic concerns, while a smaller Sea will increase concerns regarding windblown dust from the exposed lakebed.

Lessons from photovoltaic policies in China for future development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huo, Mo-lin; Zhang, Dan-wei

2012-01-01

The paper first provides an overview of the current status of PV industry development in China, including the penetration speed, the market segments and the value chain. Further, it reviews the experience of governmental interventions composed of the legal framework, market incentives and manufacturing policies for lessons learning. After the Renewable Energy Law took effect in 2006, PV penetration was accelerated. Capital subsidies and feed-in tariffs, which were still in a trial stage, public bidding and the cooperation among relevant Ministries played important roles. A series of public R and D projects provided elemental technologies and meanwhile the preferential tax policies encouraged PV R and D nationwide. Then the paper looks into the future prospects, based on the technical potential, the national indicative targets in 2020, and the energy planning considering the governmental targets of energy transition and CO 2 mitigation. Consequently we analyze problems impeding the future development based on evidences. For instance, there was no predetermined degression of the capital subsidy to push cost reduction; the budget and the organization of public PV R and D were insufficient. Finally, we propose some recommendations on improving policy interventions. - Highlights: ► Surveys the current status of PV industry in China, including the market trend, the installation distribution and the value chain. ► Reviews the experience of governmental interventions composed of the legal framework, market policies and manufacturing policies. ► Looks into future prospects, based on the technical potential, the national targets of 2020, policies of energy transition and CO 2 mitigation. ► Analyzes barriers of future development, and proposes some recommendations on improving policy interventions.

Fuzziness and fuzzy modelling in Bulgaria's energy policy decision-making dilemma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xingquan

2006-01-01

The decision complexity resulting from imprecision in decision variables and parameters, a major difficulty for conventional decision analysis methods, can be relevantly analysed and modelled by fuzzy logic. Bulgaria's nuclear policy decision-making process implicates such complexity of imprecise nature: stakeholders, criteria, measurement, etc. Given the suitable applicability of fuzzy logic in this case, this article tries to offer a concrete fuzzy paradigm including delimitation of decision space, quantification of imprecise variables, and, of course, parameterisation. (author)

Impacts of subsidy policies on vaccination decisions in contact networks

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hai-Feng; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Xu, Xiao-Ke; Small, Michael; Wang, Lin; Wang, Bing-Hong

2013-07-01

To motivate more people to participate in vaccination campaigns, various subsidy policies are often supplied by government and the health sectors. However, these external incentives may also alter the vaccination decisions of the broader public, and hence the choice of incentive needs to be carefully considered. Since human behavior and the networking-constrained interactions among individuals significantly impact the evolution of an epidemic, here we consider the voluntary vaccination on human contact networks. To this end, two categories of typical subsidy policies are considered: (1) under the free subsidy policy, the total amount of subsidy is distributed to a certain fraction of individual and who are vaccinated without personal cost, and (2) under the partial-offset subsidy policy, each vaccinated person is offset by a certain amount of subsidy. A vaccination decision model based on evolutionary game theory is established to study the effects of these different subsidy policies on disease control. Simulations suggest that, because the partial-offset subsidy policy encourages more people to take vaccination, its performance is significantly better than that of the free subsidy policy. However, an interesting phenomenon emerges in the partial-offset scenario: with limited amount of total subsidy, a moderate subsidy rate for each vaccinated individual can guarantee the group-optimal vaccination, leading to the maximal social benefits, while such an optimal phenomenon is not evident for the free subsidy scenario.

A big data analysis of the relationship between future thinking and decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Thorstad, Robert; Wolff, Phillip

2018-02-20

We use big data methods to investigate how decision-making might depend on future sightedness (that is, on how far into the future people's thoughts about the future extend). In study 1, we establish a link between future thinking and decision-making at the population level in showing that US states with citizens having relatively far future sightedness, as reflected in their tweets, take fewer risks than citizens in states having relatively near future sightedness. In study 2, we analyze people's tweets to confirm a connection between future sightedness and decision-making at the individual level in showing that people with long future sightedness are more likely to choose larger future rewards over smaller immediate rewards. In study 3, we show that risk taking decreases with increases in future sightedness as reflected in people's tweets. The ability of future sightedness to predict decisions suggests that future sightedness is a relatively stable cognitive characteristic. This implication was supported in an analysis of tweets by over 38,000 people that showed that future sightedness has both state and trait characteristics (study 4). In study 5, we provide evidence for a potential mechanism by which future sightedness can affect decisions in showing that far future sightedness can make the future seem more connected to the present, as reflected in how people refer to the present, past, and future in their tweets over the course of several minutes. Our studies show how big data methods can be applied to naturalistic data to reveal underlying psychological properties and processes.

Policy Uncertainty, Investment and Commitment Periods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

Today's investment decisions in key sectors such as energy, forestry or transport have significant impacts on the levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the coming decades. Given the economic and environmental long-term implications of capital investment and retirement, a climate mitigation regime should aim to encourage capital investment in climate-friendly technologies. Many factors affect technology choice and the timing of investment, including investor expectations about future prices and policies. Recent international discussions have focused on the importance of providing more certainty about future climate policy stringency. The design of commitment periods can play a role in creating this environment. This paper assesses how the length of commitment periods influences policy uncertainty and investment decisions. In particular, the paper analyses the relationship between commitment period length and near term investment decisions in climate friendly technology.

Decision support tools for policy and planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacyk, P.; Schultz, D.; Spangenberg, L.

1995-01-01

A decision support system (DSS) is being developed at the Radioactive Liquid Waste Treatment Facility, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The DSS will be used to evaluate alternatives for improving LANL's existing central radioactive waste water treatment plant and to evaluate new site-wide liquid waste treatment schemes that are required in order to handle the diverse waste streams produced at LANL. The decision support system consists of interacting modules that perform the following tasks: rigorous process simulation, configuration management, performance analysis, cost analysis, risk analysis, environmental impact assessment, transportation modeling, and local, state, and federal regulation compliance checking. Uncertainty handling techniques are used with these modules and also with a decision synthesis module which combines results from the modules listed above. We believe the DSS being developed can be applied to almost any other industrial water treatment facility with little modification because in most situations the waste streams are less complex, fewer regulations apply, and the political environment is simpler. The techniques being developed are also generally applicable to policy and planning decision support systems in the chemical process industry

New High: A Future-Oriented Study of American Drug Policy

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

physical health , leading to a decrease in morbidity and mortality from obesity. Nootropics on pharmacy shelves combat hunger, low energy, and...office of the future. 14. SUBJECT TERMS futures, megatrends, emerging technologies, drug policy, public health , war on drugs, forecasting, behavioral... health , scenarios, trends, innovation, regulation, policy, artificial intelligence, brain-computer interface, neural stimulation, nootropics

Nuclear power. What policies for what future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thiriet, Lucien.

1976-01-01

A long- and very long-dated estimation of the world uranium resources are given comparatively to that of fissile energies, and the short- and mean-dated distributions of these resources and uranium economy are discussed in the light of foresights concerning the energy consumption provided for France and the most important industrial countries in 1985. The competitive character and the economic future of nuclear power are discussed. The incidence that the evolution in the nuclear policies of the principal industrial countries had, in the past, on the formation and growth of the market of nuclear power production is shown. The future possibilities of nuclear reactors and nuclear hydrogen are evaluated with the role of nuclear power in an economic policy in national independence [fr

Data-Based Decision Making at the Policy, Research, and Practice Levels

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schildkamp, Kim; Ebbeler, J.

2015-01-01

Data-based decision making (DBDM) can lead to school improvement. However, schools struggle with the implementation of DBDM. In this symposium, we will discuss research and the implementation of DBDM at the national and regional policy level and the classroom level. We will discuss policy issues

The effect of political cycles on power investment decisions: Expectations over the repeal and reinstatement of carbon policy mechanisms in Australia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ShahNazari, Mahdi; McHugh, Adam; Maybee, Bryan; Whale, Jonathan

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Effect of political cycles quantified in power generation investments. • Expected repeal and reinstatement of carbon policy modelled dynamically. • A survey of experts informed the decision making model. • Expectations over reinstatement of policy dampens the effect of expected repeal. - Abstract: Political uncertainty over global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy is likely to defer investment in cleaner technologies. It may also incentivise short-lived, high-cost interim investments while businesses wait for the uncertainty to subside. The range of possible policy responses to the issue has created uncertainty over the future of national mitigation pathways. Given that the electricity sector, globally, is a major emitter of GHGs, this represents a systematic risk to investment in electricity generation assets. This paper uses a real options analysis framework informed by a survey of experts conducted in Australia – used as a proxy to model the degree of the uncertainty – to investigate the optimal timing for investment in the conversion of a coal plant to a combined cycle gas turbine plant using the American-style option valuation method. The effect of market and political uncertainty is studied for the Clean Energy Act 2011 in Australia. Political uncertainty is addressed bi-modally in terms of: (1) uncertainty over the repeal of the carbon pricing policy, and (2) if it is repealed, uncertainty over the reinstatement of the policy, to represent the effect of electoral cycles and the possibility of more stringent future global mitigation efforts. Results of the analysis show that although political uncertainty with respect to GHG mitigation policy may delay investment in the conversion of the coal plant, expectations over the reinstatement of the carbon pricing reduces the amount of option premium to defer the conversion decision

The effectiveness of research implementation strategies for promoting evidence-informed policy and management decisions in healthcare: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarkies, Mitchell N; Bowles, Kelly-Ann; Skinner, Elizabeth H; Haas, Romi; Lane, Haylee; Haines, Terry P

2017-11-14

) establishing an imperative for practice change, (2) building trust between implementation stakeholders and (3) developing a shared vision, to (4) actioning change mechanisms. This was underpinned by the (5) employment of effective communication strategies and (6) provision of resources to support change. Evidence is developing to support the use of research implementation strategies for promoting evidence-informed policy and management decisions in healthcare. The design of future implementation strategies should be based on the inter-relating factors perceived to be associated with effective strategies. This systematic review was registered with Prospero (record number: 42016032947).

People adopt optimal policies in simple decision-making, after practice and guidance.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Nathan J; Brown, Scott D

2017-04-01

Organisms making repeated simple decisions are faced with a tradeoff between urgent and cautious strategies. While animals can adopt a statistically optimal policy for this tradeoff, findings about human decision-makers have been mixed. Some studies have shown that people can optimize this "speed-accuracy tradeoff", while others have identified a systematic bias towards excessive caution. These issues have driven theoretical development and spurred debate about the nature of human decision-making. We investigated a potential resolution to the debate, based on two factors that routinely differ between human and animal studies of decision-making: the effects of practice, and of longer-term feedback. Our study replicated the finding that most people, by default, are overly cautious. When given both practice and detailed feedback, people moved rapidly towards the optimal policy, with many participants reaching optimality with less than 1 h of practice. Our findings have theoretical implications for cognitive and neural models of simple decision-making, as well as methodological implications.

Preparing future fisheries professionals to make good decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Colvin, Michael E.; Peterson, James T.

2017-01-01

Future fisheries professionals will face decision-making challenges in an increasingly complex field of fisheries management. Though fisheries students are well trained in the use of the scientific method to understand the natural world, they are rarely exposed to structured decision making (SDM) as part of an undergraduate or graduate education. Specifically, SDM encourages users (e.g., students, managers) to think critically and communicate the problem and then identify specific, measurable objectives as they relate to the problem. Next, users must think critically and creatively about management alternatives that can be used to meet the objectives—there must be more than one alternative or there is no decision to be made. Lastly, the management alternatives are evaluated with regard to how likely they are to succeed in terms of multiple, possibly completing, objectives, such as how stakeholder groups value outcomes of management actions versus monetary cost. We believe that exposure to SDM and its elements is an important part of preparing future fisheries professional to meet the challenges they may face. These challenges include reduced budgets, the growth of potentially competing natural resource interest groups, and stakeholder desire to be involved in management decisions affecting public trust resources, just to name a few.

Communication about future policy rates in theory and practice : a survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Moessner, R.; Jansen, David-Jan; de Haan, Jakob

We discuss the theoretical rationale for central bank communication about future policy rates, either as part of inflation targeting or in the form of forward guidance. We also summarize both actual central bank communication about future policy rates and empirical evidence on the effectiveness of

Energy policy, strategies for uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cook, P.L.; Surrey, A.J.

1977-01-01

The subject is dealt with in chapters, entitled: energy policy-objectives, strategies and policies; the 1967 fuel policy; problems of the optimising approach; the uncertain outlook; oil; coal; gas; electricity; the interdependence of the four fuel industries; energy policy for the future - the need for a long-term strategy; medium-term strategies and short-term policies; the organisational decisions of energy policy. Nuclear power is included in the subject matter. (U.K.)

Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guangjin Tian

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents' behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model (ABM with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Guangzhou metropolitan region. A future policy scenario analysis can help policy makers to understand the possible results. These individuals can adjust their policies and decisions according to their different objectives.

Quantifying the spatial implications of future land use policies in South Africa

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Le Roux, A.; Augustijn-Beckers, Petronella

2017-01-01

Land use policies have a definite and lasting impact on the way that cities grow; however, it is difficult for policy- and decision-makers to observe and quantify the implications of their land use policies and strategies. There is thus a need for information and tools that can adequately support

Do Strategic Foresight and Policy Making Go Hand in Hand?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chloupkova, Jarka; Svendsen, Gert Tinggaard; Zdechovský, Tomáš

2016-01-01

Policy making is a complex issue, as numerous factors should be taken aboard before a political decision is made. To ensure a more holistic approach to policy making, the authors propose to use the tool of foresight to capture the multitude of variables. Using the framework of rational choice...... the use of the foresight tool. Such a vision for Europe could further improve future policy making to the benefit of all EU citizens. The success of foresight and stake- holders’ groups for making sound decisions where best to invest tax-payers’ money, was already piloted in European Commission...... and coordinated joint policy decisions. This would aid in establishing the optimal amount of public goods for which tax-payers’ money is to be invested. Currently, Europe stands at an important cross-road as to what its future will be. Some political decisions have been made, and some are still to be made...

Organisational Factors Affecting Policy and Programme Decision Making in a Public Health Policy Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Zardo, Pauline; Collie, Alex; Livingstone, Charles

2015-01-01

Organisational factors can affect the success of interventions aimed at increasing research use. Research is needed to identify organisational factors affecting research use in specific public health policy contexts. Qualitative interviews with decision makers from a specific public health context identified a range of organisational factors that…

Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-11-15

This WEC study is bottom-up regional view of our energy future focusing on policies to ensure energy sustainability. Experts from five regions and all energy domains worked together to produce four different scenarios to predict how differing levels of cooperation and government involvement would affect the energy future of the world.

In-situ burning policy development for California: A consensus approach to policy and decision-making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Addassi, Y. N.

1997-01-01

Current efforts by the California State Dept. of Fish and Game to develop an in-situ burning policy for oil spills in the open-water marine environments of the State were described. The differing perspectives and mandates of the various agency representatives on working groups and the frequent necessity of consensus solutions was highlighted. It was stated that the consensus approach requires more time and energy, however, it is off-set by the benefits of developing good working relationships that will ultimately facilitate decision-making. Current projected timelines for the completed in-situ burning policy, pertinent sections of the draft policy, plans for dealing with negative public reactions to the policy and outreach and public education programs were outlined. 12 refs

Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

2014-01-01

With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project 'European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast' - http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). A model was built to assess policy scenarios' impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate, and distribution. Reducing, even slightly, the prices of

Making robust policy decisions using global biodiversity indicators.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emily Nicholson

Full Text Available In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.

Public health policy decisions on medical innovations: what role can early economic evaluation play?

Science.gov (United States)

Hartz, Susanne; John, Jürgen

2009-02-01

Our contribution aims to explore the different ways in which early economic data can inform public health policy decisions on new medical technologies. A literature research was conducted to detect methodological contributions covering the health policy perspective. Early economic data on new technologies can support public health policy decisions in several ways. Embedded in horizon scanning and HTA activities, it adds to monitoring and assessment of innovations. It can play a role in the control of technology diffusion by informing coverage and reimbursement decisions as well as the direct public promotion of healthcare technologies, leading to increased efficiency. Major problems include the uncertainty related to economic data at early stages as well as the timing of the evaluation of an innovation. Decision-makers can benefit from the information supplied by early economic data, but the actual use in practice is difficult to determine. Further empirical evidence should be gathered, while the use could be promoted by further standardization.

A multicriteria decision making approach applied to improving maintenance policies in healthcare organizations.

Science.gov (United States)

Carnero, María Carmen; Gómez, Andrés

2016-04-23

Healthcare organizations have far greater maintenance needs for their medical equipment than other organization, as many are used directly with patients. However, the literature on asset management in healthcare organizations is very limited. The aim of this research is to provide more rational application of maintenance policies, leading to an increase in quality of care. This article describes a multicriteria decision-making approach which integrates Markov chains with the multicriteria Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH), to facilitate the best choice of combination of maintenance policies by using the judgements of a multi-disciplinary decision group. The proposed approach takes into account the level of acceptance that a given alternative would have among professionals. It also takes into account criteria related to cost, quality of care and impact of care cover. This multicriteria approach is applied to four dialysis subsystems: patients infected with hepatitis C, infected with hepatitis B, acute and chronic; in all cases, the maintenance strategy obtained consists of applying corrective and preventive maintenance plus two reserve machines. The added value in decision-making practices from this research comes from: (i) integrating the use of Markov chains to obtain the alternatives to be assessed by a multicriteria methodology; (ii) proposing the use of MACBETH to make rational decisions on asset management in healthcare organizations; (iii) applying the multicriteria approach to select a set or combination of maintenance policies in four dialysis subsystems of a health care organization. In the multicriteria decision making approach proposed, economic criteria have been used, related to the quality of care which is desired for patients (availability), and the acceptance that each alternative would have considering the maintenance and healthcare resources which exist in the organization, with the inclusion of a

The Future of Nuclear Power in the Light of European Energy Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schweickardt, Hans E.

2014-01-01

1. Energy policy post-Fukushima: • Following the initial shock: differentiated development, no cohesive European policy; • EU: Nuclear Power (NP) remains important in the context of climate policy; • Bulk of European countries: Keep or even expand share of NP (UK, Eastern Europe); • Germany and Switzerland (CH): Exit from NP, in Germany based on previously fixed shutdown deadlines for every facility, in CH based on exclusion of new builds. 2. Switzerland's focus: • Current CH electricity supply: twin pillars of NP + hydro power; high sustainability. • Federal Council's new energy strategy and its consequences: Strain on economy and companies due to market distortion and high renovation costs; plus growing environmental stress, dependency on imports and social inequality due to artificially high electricity prices. 3. Future of nuclear power in Switzerland: Conceivable possibilities: • Short-term: Relatively rapid ban on nuclear power (but poss. with back-door research/no ban on thinking about the technology); • Medium-term: Ban on new facilities but old plants continue to operate; • Long-term: Re-entry/new start, poss. even sanctioned by politicians, on the following grounds: rather new facilities than old, good for the climate, costeffectiveness, energy security. 4. A new look for nuclear power? HTR technology of particular interest due to the following benefits: • Disposal (less waste, recycling); • Technical controllability, core meltdown impossible; • Manageable dimensions (particularly important in CH); • Financial feasibility. Whether NP will remain on the agenda, and which technology wins through also depends heavily on external factors: climate policy, cost-effectiveness/financial feasibility, readiness for market, change in value, trends in other energy sources. 5. Summary: Future of NP difficult to predict. If technology is mature and launched on the market within a reasonable time frame, the potential is there. Opportunities

Iran's petroleum policy: Current trends and the future outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pezeshki, S.; Fesharaki, F.

1994-12-01

The Iranian economy and political situation have undergone radical changes since the 1979 Islamic revolution. The excesses of the early years of the revolution have gradually given way to moderation and a more pragmatic economic policy--based on the principles of the free market. The petroleum policy, as a subset of the economic policies, has been somewhat affected by the political and economic developments in Iran. The petroleum policy has changed from a position of no foreign participation to a position that includes a desire for foreign participation, the text of a model contract, and an attempt to introduce new technologies in the upstream sector. This report provides an overview of the key issues facing the Iranian oil industry and the economic context in which the oil industry is operating in Iran. It describes the evolution of policies meant to move the oil industry toward the free market; it discusses Iran's oil trading partners, the outlook for refining and project investments, and current and likely future developments in the natural gas and petrochemical sectors. In short, the report provides an up-to-date assessment of the Iranian petroleum sector and its likely evolution in the future

Safety design and evaluation policy for future FBRs in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aizawa, Kiyoto

1991-01-01

The safety policy for fast breeder reactors (FBRs) has gradually matured in accordance with the development of FBRs. The safety assessment of the Japanese prototype FBR, Monju during the licensing process accelerated the maturity and the integration of knowledge and databases. Results are expected to be reflected in the establishment of the safety design and evaluation policy for FBRs. Although the methodologies and safety policies developed for LWRs are applicable in principle to future FBRs, it is neither rational nor realistic to treat safety only with these policies. It is recommended that one should develop the methodologies and safety policies starting from understanding of the inherent safety characteristics of FBR's through safety research, plant operating experience and design work. In the last few years, some technical committees were organized in Japan and have discussed key safety issues which are specific to FBRs in order to provide preparatory reports and to establish safety standards and guidelines for future commercial FBRs. (author)

Utility of Policy Capturing as an Approach to Graduate Admissions Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Frank L.; And Others

1978-01-01

The present study examined and evaluated the application of linear policy-capturing models to the real-world decision task of graduate admissions. Utility of the policy-capturing models was great enough to be of practical significance, and least-squares weights showed no predictive advantage over equal weights. (Author/CTM)

Future Savvy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gordon, Adam

There's no shortage of predictions available to organizations looking to anticipate and profit from future events or trends. Apparently helpful forecasts are ubiquitous in everyday communications such as newspapers and business magazines, and in specialized sources such as government and think......-tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock-market guides. These resources are crucial, but they are also of very mixed quality. How can decision-makers know which predictions to take seriously, which to be wary of, and which to throw out entirely? Future Savvy provides analytical filters to judging predictive...... systematic "forecast filtering" to reveal strengths and weakness in the predictions they face. Future Savvy empowers both business and policy/government decision-makers to use forecasts wisely and so improve their judgment in anticipating opportunities, avoiding threats, and managing uncertainty....

Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

2014-01-01

Background and objective With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Methods A model was built to assess policy scenarios’ impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Results Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Conclusions Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate

The Final Beneficiaries are Actors Active Little and Influential in Decisions on Public Policy in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diolina Rodrigues Santiago Silva

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Public policies are government programs that directly influence the citizens' lives. In the formulation and implementation of these policies, there is the presence of political and private actors. The final beneficiaries are between different types of private actors. Some laws require the government listen to society at the time of decision-making in public policy and in national conferences and public consultations. The final beneficiaries, actual users of these public policies have to reach some mechanisms of direct participation in the formulation of these policies, but the number of participants is smaller and doesn't influence in making government decisions.

Transportation Energy Futures: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brogan, J. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Aeppli, A. E. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Brown, D. F. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Fischer, M. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Grenzeback, L. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); McKenzie, E. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vyas, A. D. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Witzke, E. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)

2013-03-01

Freight transportation modes—truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline—each serve a distinct share of the freight transportation market. A variety of factors influence the modes chosen by shippers, carriers, and others involved in freight supply chains. Analytical methods can be used to project future modal shares, and federal policy actions could influence future freight mode choices. This report considers how these topics have been addressed in existing literature and offers insights on federal policy decisions with the potential to prompt mode choices that reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Fair play in energy policy decisions: Procedural fairness, outcome fairness and acceptance of the decision to rebuild nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Visschers, Vivianne H.M.; Siegrist, Michael

2012-01-01

To raise public acceptance of new energy policies, promoting the fairness of the outcomes and of the decision-making procedure has been suggested. Very few studies have examined the role of fairness in public acceptance of rebuilding nuclear power plants. Therefore, using a large mail survey, we investigated the public’s acceptance of the decision to rebuild nuclear power plants in Switzerland by 2020. The study examined the influence of procedural fairness and outcome fairness on the acceptance of this decision, as well as other factors such as risk perception and benefit perception. Additionally, we investigated the moderating influence of general attitudes towards nuclear power on the relation between fairness and decision acceptance. Results indicated that outcome fairness strongly increased decision acceptance, along with general attitudes towards nuclear power and perceived economic benefits. Procedural fairness had only a small impact on decision acceptance. The influence of fairness on decision acceptance did not seem to depend on general nuclear attitudes. Our findings imply that, in the case of rebuilding nuclear power plants, perceived benefits and outcome fairness are important determinants of acceptance of the decision, while procedural fairness only has a limited impact. - Highlights: ► We investigated the role of fairness in the acceptance of a nuclear policy decision. ► Outcome fairness strongly influenced decision acceptance regarding nuclear power plants. ► The role of procedural fairness was relatively small in this respect. ► Also, nuclear attitudes and perceived economic benefits affected decision acceptance. ► Outcome fairness seems more relevant for decision acceptance than procedural fairness.

Gun policy and serious mental illness: priorities for future research and policy.

Science.gov (United States)

McGinty, Emma Elizabeth; Webster, Daniel W; Barry, Colleen L

2014-01-01

In response to recent mass shootings, policy makers have proposed multiple policies to prevent persons with serious mental illness from having guns. The political debate about these proposals is often uninformed by research. To address this gap, this review article summarizes the research related to gun restriction policies that focus on serious mental illness. Gun restriction policies were identified by researching the THOMAS legislative database, state legislative databases, prior review articles, and the news media. PubMed, PsycINFO, and Web of Science databases were searched for publications between 1970 and 2013 that addressed the relationship between serious mental illness and violence, the effectiveness of gun policies focused on serious mental illness, the potential for such policies to exacerbate negative public attitudes, and the potential for gun restriction policies to deter mental health treatment seeking. Limited research suggests that federal law restricting gun possession by persons with serious mental illness may prevent gun violence from this population. Promotion of policies to prevent persons with serious mental illness from having guns does not seem to exacerbate negative public attitudes toward this group. Little is known about how restricting gun possession among persons with serious mental illness affects suicide risk or mental health treatment seeking. Future studies should examine how gun restriction policies for serious mental illness affect suicide, how such policies are implemented by states, how persons with serious mental illness perceive policies that restrict their possession of guns, and how gun restriction policies influence mental health treatment seeking among persons with serious mental illness.

Discounted semi-Markov decision processes : linear programming and policy iteration

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wessels, J.; van Nunen, J.A.E.E.

1975-01-01

For semi-Markov decision processes with discounted rewards we derive the well known results regarding the structure of optimal strategies (nonrandomized, stationary Markov strategies) and the standard algorithms (linear programming, policy iteration). Our analysis is completely based on a primal

Discounted semi-Markov decision processes : linear programming and policy iteration

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wessels, J.; van Nunen, J.A.E.E.

1974-01-01

For semi-Markov decision processes with discounted rewards we derive the well known results regarding the structure of optimal strategies (nonrandomized, stationary Markov strategies) and the standard algorithms (linear programming, policy iteration). Our analysis is completely based on a primal

US climate policy: evolution and future prospects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Agrawala, S.; Andresen, S.

2001-03-01

Climate change is a problem which US science has significantly helped to bring to the world's attention. It now requires initiatives in US domestic policy for even the first steps towards any realistic global resolution of this problem. This paper addresses three questions: (1) How has US climate policy evolved since climate change became an international political concern in the late 1980s?; (2) what is the relative significance of various factors, both domestic and international, in shaping this evolution?; and (3) what are some likely future scenarios for the climate regime and the role of the US under the new Bush (Jr.) administration? This analysis suggests that the US has generally played a cautious, even blocking role on the international arena, although the period between 1992 and 1997 witnessed a rather uneven march towards progressivism, culminating in the US agreeing to a 7 per cent cut in its greenhouse emissions by 2008-2012 under the Kyoto Protocol. US policy during the Bush (Sr.) and Clinton administrations was primarily shaped by powerful ideologues, while a second critical determinant was the constitutional separation of powers between the executive and legislature. Scientific assessments and international negotiations meanwhile have given climate change unusual stamina on the domestic agenda, while the preferred set of policy responses has been constrained by a national culture that gives primacy to the market over the state. Looking into the future, the recent one-two punch delivered by President George W. Bush in reversing his pledge to regulate carbon dioxide followed by a rejection of US commitments under the Kyoto Protocol renders any expectation of measures to reduce domestic emissions unrealistic, and is likely to cripple the treaty in its present form. The possibility of an alternative to the Kyoto Protocol also appears very remote at this time. However, while official action is unlikely, it is possible that the growth of US

Beyond the lab: observations on the process by which science successfully informs management and policy decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Flores, S.

2012-12-01

Scientific findings inform management decisions and policy products through various ways, these include: synthesis reports, white papers, in-person and web-based seminars (webinars), communication from specialized staff, and seminal peer-reviewed journal articles. Scientists are often told that if they want their science to inform management decisions and policy products that they must: clearly and simply articulate discreet pieces of scientific information and avoid attaching advocacy messages to the science; however, solely relying on these tenants does not ensure that scientific products will infuse the realms of management and policy. The process by which science successfully informs management decisions and policy products rarely begins at the time the results come out of the lab, but rather, before the research is carried out. Having an understanding of the political climate, management needs, agency research agendas, and funding limitations, as well as developing a working relationship with the intended managers and policy makers are key elements to developing the kind of science results and products that often make an impact in the management and policy world. In my presentation I will provide case-studies from California (USA) to highlight the type of coastal, ocean and climate science that has been successful in informing management decisions and policy documents, as well as provide a state-level agency perspective on the process by which this occurs.

Scientific Literacy for Democratic Decision-Making

Science.gov (United States)

Yacoubian, Hagop A.

2018-01-01

Scientifically literate citizens must be able to engage in making decisions on science-based social issues. In this paper, I start by showing examples of science curricula and policy documents that capitalise the importance of engaging future citizens in decision-making processes whether at the personal or at the societal levels. I elucidate the…

Between Policy-Making and Planning SEA and Strategic Decision-Making in the Danish Energy Sector

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lyhne, Ivar

2011-01-01

This article deals with the challenge of approaching decision-making processes through strategic environmental assessment (SEA). It is argued that the interaction between policy-making and planning in strategic decision-making processes is a neglected reason for problems with applying SEA......, as legislation and guidance on SEA primarily approach either the policy or plan level. To substantiate the argument, the extent of interaction is empirically investigated. Four contemporary decision-making processes in the Danish energy sector are mapped as a series of choices. Fundamental changes...... with considerable environmental impacts are decided these years, often without preceding SEA processes. The mapping shows a profound interaction between policy-making and planning. In this interaction, public consultation, systematic environmental analyses, and transparency on alternatives are primarily related...

Public education for energy policy decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frigren, S.

1977-01-01

A brief review is given of the changes that took place in 1972-1973 in public opinion and political views in Sweden, leading to new attitudes and increasing interest in matters of energy policy. Although nuclear power was from the beginning the main issue, it became more and more widely recognized that a number of complex and technically difficult problems were involved. In late 1973, the Government decided to prepare a comprehensive energy policy programmme for the period 1975-1985 and to put this programme before Parliament in the spring of 1975. In order to involve the public in the decision-making process, a public education programme was introduced in January 1974. The essentials of this programme are described. The main effort was provided by the adult education associations, which were given financial incentives to start energy study circles and prepared their own study material. Journalist seminars were also arranged. The paper outlines the links between the educational efforts, the discussions in the study circles, and the standpoints ultimately taken by the different political parties on the energy issues. (author)

Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

Science.gov (United States)

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

2016-02-01

Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

The Montreal Protocol treaty and its illuminating history of science-policy decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Grady, C.

2017-12-01

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, hailed as one of the most effective environmental treaties of all time, has a thirty year history of science-policy decision-making. The partnership between Parties to the Montreal Protocol and its technical assessment panels serve as a basis for understanding successes and evaluating stumbles of global environmental decision-making. Real-world environmental treaty negotiations can be highly time-sensitive, politically motivated, and resource constrained thus scientists and policymakers alike are often unable to confront the uncertainties associated with the multitude of choices. The science-policy relationship built within the framework of the Montreal Protocol has helped constrain uncertainty and inform policy decisions but has also highlighted the limitations of the use of scientific understanding in political decision-making. This talk will describe the evolution of the scientist-policymaker relationship over the history of the Montreal Protocol. Examples will illustrate how the Montreal Protocol's technical panels inform decisions of the country governments and will characterize different approaches pursued by different countries with a particular focus on the recently adopted Kigali Amendment. In addition, this talk will take a deeper dive with an analysis of the historic technical panel assessments on estimating financial resources necessary to enable compliance to the Montreal Protocol compared to the political financial decisions made through the Protocol's Multilateral Fund replenishment negotiation process. Finally, this talk will describe the useful lessons and challenges from these interactions and how they may be applicable in other environmental management frameworks across multiple scales under changing climatic conditions.

Policy and advice for a sustainable energy future. The Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van der Werff, T.T.

2000-01-01

The VROM Council offered to host a workshop (27-28 October 2000) for a group of European environmental advisory bodies. This meeting is meant as a kick-off for a working group on energy and climate change. The workshop may help to develop standpoints of the advisory bodies on the basis of shared knowledge of problem perceptions and proposed solutions in other EU countries. This may increase the common denominator and thus promote common EU policies. The proposed title for this workshop is: Reconciling a sustainable energy future with the liberalisation and privatisation of the European energy market One of the participating councils from each country is expected to draft a report on the policies directed at a sustainable energy future in their respective countries. These reports should include the following elements of the national policies and relevant proposals of the councils: a brief description of the current energy supply and a lookout on sustainable development in the energy sector; .a description of the liberalisation and privatisation of the energy market, including the institutional reform (government involvement), juridical changes and realisation path and, if applicable, how the share of non fossil energy generation is enlarged; a description of how in the future a sustainable energy supply will be promoted, including (options for) policy strategies, measures and instruments; and a description of the European Union (EU) policy that is conditional for the realisation of these national policies. The VROM Council has asked CE to produce the report for the Netherlands. The report is organised as follows. Chapter 2 gives a brief description of the current Dutch energy and CO2 characteristics. Chapter 3 gives an overview of Dutch energy policy and chapter 4 an overview of Dutch climate policy. The chapters 5-7 give the views of the various councils on energy and climate policy (AER, VROMRaad, and SER). The final chapter, chapter 8, gives some suggestions for

Impact of the decision-making environment on policy responses to road worker fatality in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

Science.gov (United States)

Pankratz, Curt J

2018-01-22

Fatal accidents often lead to policy changes. However, the existing decision-making environment is critical to policy responses. This study compares the policy responses to similar events in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The key question explores the extent to which the policy decisions in each province differ despite the similarity of the events. Key documents were examined. Provincial court rulings, workplace health & safety incident investigation reports, court transcripts and police reports were used to compare resulting policy changes as well as the socio-political and economic decision-making context. Relevant clauses in resulting legislation were also compared to assess the specific changes that were made in each province. In each province, a young, female highway construction worker was killed. However, the provinces responded in very different ways. In Saskatchewan, the Premier called for recommendations to improve worker safety, initiating an in-depth governmental study and the development of a broad safety strategy. In Manitoba, political and social pressures shifted the decision-making environment and contributed to the rushed passing of a bill focused on traffic fine increases that resulted in record-breaking traffic fine revenue while failing to include broader safety measures. Different decision-making contexts can lead to vastly different policy outcomes even when responding to very similar events. Key differences included time constraints, access to information and the nature of the political process invoked.

Clearing the air. Air quality modelling for policy support

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hendriks, C.

2017-01-01

The studies presented in this thesis were performed to provide policy makers with more accurate information about the sources of air pollution and the possible consequences of future developments on air quality. This enables policy makers to make better informed decisions when formulating policies

Modelling and simulation-based acquisition decision support: present & future

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Naidoo, S

2009-10-01

Full Text Available stream_source_info Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 24551 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 1 Modelling & Simulation...-Based Acquisition Decision Support: Present & Future Shahen Naidoo Abstract The Ground Based Air Defence System (GBADS) Programme, of the South African Army has been applying modelling and simulation (M&S) to provide acquisition decision and doctrine...

The opioid crisis: past, present and future policy climate in Ontario, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Morin, Kristen A; Eibl, Joseph K; Franklyn, Alexandra M; Marsh, David C

2017-11-02

Addressing opioid use disorder has become a priority in Ontario, Canada, because of its high economic, social and health burden. There continues to be stigma and criticism relating to opioid use disorder and treatment options. The result has been unsystematic, partial, reactive policies and programs developed based on divergent points of view. The aim of this manuscript is to describe how past and present understandings, narratives, ideologies and discourse of opioid use, have impacted policies over the course of the growing opioid crisis. Assessing the impact of policy is complex. It involves consideration of conceptual issues of what impacts policy change. In this manuscript we argue that the development of polices and initiatives regarding opioids, opioid use disorder and opioid agonist treatment in the last decade, have been more strongly associated with the evolution of ideas, narratives and discourses rather than research relating to opioids. We formulate our argument using a framework by Sumner, Crichton, Theobald, Zulu, and Parkhurs. We use examples from the Canadian context to outline our argument such as: the anti- drug legislation from the Canadian Federal Conservative government in 2007; the removal of OxyContin™ from the drug formulary in 2012; the rapid expansion of opioid agonist treatment beginning in the early 2000s, the unilateral decision made regarding fee cuts for physicians providing opioid agonist treatment in 2015; and the most recent implementation of a narcotics monitoring system, which are all closely linked with the shifts in public opinion and discourse at the time of which these policies and programs are implemented. We conclude with recommendations to consider a multifactorial response using evidence and stakeholder engagement to address the opioid crisis, rather than a reactive policy approach. We suggest that researchers have an important role in shaping future policy by reframing ideas through knowledge translation, formation of

The Role of Future Time Perspective in Career Decision-Making

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Terrance L.; Tracey, Terence J. G.

2012-01-01

The present study of two hundred and seven university students examined the structural relation of future-orientation (both valence and instrumentality), career decision-making self-efficacy and career indecision (choice/commitment anxiety and lack of readiness) in a sample of 218 college students. Future time perspective was viewed as a key input…

Decision policy scenarios for just-in-sequence (JIS) deliveries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cedillo-Campos, Miguel Gaston; Ruelas, Dario Morones; Lizarraga-Lizarraga, Giovanni; Gonzalez-Feliu, Jesus; Garza-Reyes, Jose Arturo

2017-07-01

The Just-in-Sequence (JIS) approach is evidencing advantages in efficiently managing variety-driven costs, and reducing the risk of disruption in sourcing, manufacturing companies and third-party logistics. This has increased its implementation in the manufacturing industry, especially in highly customized manufacturing sectors such as the automotive industry. However, despite its growing interest by manufacturers, scholarly research focused on JIS still remains limited. In this context, little has been done to study the effect of JIS on the fluidity of supply chains and processes of logistics suppliers as well as providing them with a decision making tool to optimise the sequencing of their deliveries. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a genetic algorithm to evaluate different decision policy scenarios to reduce risks of supply disruptions at the final assembly line. Consequently, an algorithm considering a periodic review of the inventory that assumes a steady demand and short response times is developed and applied. Design/methodology/approach: Based on a literature review and real-life information, an abductive reasoning was performed and a case study application of the proposed algorithm conducted in the auto-industry. Findings: The results obtained from the case study indicate that the proposed genetic algorithm offers a reliable solution when facing variability in safety stocks that operate under assumptions such as: i) fixed costs; ii) high inventory turnover; iii) scarce previous information available concerning material requirements; and iv) replenishment services as core business value. Although the results are based on an auto-industry case study, they are equally applicable to other global supply chains. Originality/value: This paper is of interest to practitioners and academics alike as it complements and supports the very limited scholarly research on JIS by providing manufacturers and 3PL suppliers competing in mass customized

Decision policy scenarios for just-in-sequence (JIS) deliveries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cedillo-Campos, Miguel Gaston; Ruelas, Dario Morones; Lizarraga-Lizarraga, Giovanni; Gonzalez-Feliu, Jesus; Garza-Reyes, Jose Arturo

2017-01-01

The Just-in-Sequence (JIS) approach is evidencing advantages in efficiently managing variety-driven costs, and reducing the risk of disruption in sourcing, manufacturing companies and third-party logistics. This has increased its implementation in the manufacturing industry, especially in highly customized manufacturing sectors such as the automotive industry. However, despite its growing interest by manufacturers, scholarly research focused on JIS still remains limited. In this context, little has been done to study the effect of JIS on the fluidity of supply chains and processes of logistics suppliers as well as providing them with a decision making tool to optimise the sequencing of their deliveries. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a genetic algorithm to evaluate different decision policy scenarios to reduce risks of supply disruptions at the final assembly line. Consequently, an algorithm considering a periodic review of the inventory that assumes a steady demand and short response times is developed and applied. Design/methodology/approach: Based on a literature review and real-life information, an abductive reasoning was performed and a case study application of the proposed algorithm conducted in the auto-industry. Findings: The results obtained from the case study indicate that the proposed genetic algorithm offers a reliable solution when facing variability in safety stocks that operate under assumptions such as: i) fixed costs; ii) high inventory turnover; iii) scarce previous information available concerning material requirements; and iv) replenishment services as core business value. Although the results are based on an auto-industry case study, they are equally applicable to other global supply chains. Originality/value: This paper is of interest to practitioners and academics alike as it complements and supports the very limited scholarly research on JIS by providing manufacturers and 3PL suppliers competing in mass customized

Decision policy scenarios for just-in-sequence (JIS deliveries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miguel Gaston Cedillo-Campos

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The Just-in-Sequence (JIS approach is evidencing advantages in efficiently managing variety-driven costs, and reducing the risk of disruption in sourcing, manufacturing companies and third-party logistics. This has increased its implementation in the manufacturing industry, especially in highly customized manufacturing sectors such as the automotive industry. However, despite its growing interest by manufacturers, scholarly research focused on JIS still remains limited. In this context, little has been done to study the effect of JIS on the fluidity of supply chains and processes of logistics suppliers as well as providing them with a decision making tool to optimise the sequencing of their deliveries. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a genetic algorithm to evaluate different decision policy scenarios to reduce risks of supply disruptions at the final assembly line. Consequently, an algorithm considering a periodic review of the inventory that assumes a steady demand and short response times is developed and applied. Design/methodology/approach: Based on a literature review and real-life information, an abductive reasoning was performed and a case study application of the proposed algorithm conducted in the auto-industry. Findings: The results obtained from the case study indicate that the proposed genetic algorithm offers a reliable solution when facing variability in safety stocks that operate under assumptions such as: i fixed costs; ii high inventory turnover; iii scarce previous information available concerning material requirements; and iv replenishment services as core business value. Although the results are based on an auto-industry case study, they are equally applicable to other global supply chains. Originality/value: This paper is of interest to practitioners and academics alike as it complements and supports the very limited scholarly research on JIS by providing manufacturers and 3PL suppliers competing in

The role of migration-specific and migration-relevant policies in migrant decision-making in transit

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuschminder - de Guerre, Katie; Koser, Khalid

2017-01-01

This paper examines the role of migration-specific and migration-relevant policies in migrant decision-making factors for onwards migration or stay in Greece and Turkey. In this paper we distinguish migration-specific policies from migration-relevant policies in transit and destination countries,

Confession and Carrying into Execution of Foreign Arbitration Courts' Decisions: Reciprocity and Public Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Sarina, Salima A.; Nukusheva, Aigul A.; Kalmagambetov, Kassym S.; Kumysbekova, Zhanara T.; Nesterova, Elena V.

2016-01-01

The article contains a comparative analysis of foreign arbitration courts' decisions, ensuring the reciprocity and public policy. The aim of the study is to explore such aspects as reciprocity and public policy of arbitration courts. The result is the view of the public policy, despite its apparent irrelevance in today's Kazakhstan, which is of…

Spatial Patterns and Design Policies for Future American Cities

Science.gov (United States)

Dutt, Ashok K.; Costa, Frank J.

1977-01-01

Describes plans for future urban development which take into account energy needs, mass transportation, technological innovations, high density settlement along the rapid transit spine, and rational decision making. (Author/DB)

What Policy Actors Seek for: Reciprocal Misunderstanding of Objectives of Participatory Decision Making

OpenAIRE

Birutė PITRĖNAITĖ-ŽILĖNIENĖ; Birutė MIKULSKIENĖ

2013-01-01

The goal of this research is to explore different policy actors’ attitudes towards participation in public decision making. The paper examines objectives of external participants’ involvement and compares various participants’ judgements on the process and results of participation. We screened operation of formal networks of participatory decision making at the Lithuanian Ministries of Health and Education & Science. The research revealed the willingness of decision makers to allow different ...

External factors affecting decision-making and use of evidence in an Australian public health policy environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Zardo, Pauline; Collie, Alex; Livingstone, Charles

2014-05-01

This study examined external factors affecting policy and program decision-making in a specific public health policy context: injury prevention and rehabilitation compensation in the Australian state of Victoria. The aim was twofold: identify external factors that affect policy and program decision-making in this specific context; use this evidence to inform targeting of interventions aimed at increasing research use in this context. Qualitative interviews were undertaken from June 2011 to January 2012 with 33 employees from two state government agencies. Key factors identified were stakeholder feedback and action, government and ministerial input, legal feedback and action, injured persons and the media. The identified external factors were able to significantly influence policy and program decision-making processes: acting as both barriers and facilitators, depending on the particular issue at hand. The factors with the most influence were the Minister and government, lawyers, and agency stakeholders, particularly health providers, trade unions and employer groups. This research revealed that interventions aimed at increasing use of research in this context must target and harness the influence of these groups. This research provides critical insights for researchers seeking to design interventions to increase use of research in policy environments and influence decision-making in Victorian injury prevention and rehabilitation compensation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Requirements for advanced decision support tools in future distribution network planning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grond, M.O.W.; Morren, J.; Slootweg, J.G.

2013-01-01

This paper describes the need and requirements for advanced decision support tools in future network planning from a distribution network operator perspective. The existing tools will no longer be satisfactory for future application due to present developments in the electricity sector that increase

Iran`s petroleum policy: Current trends and the future outlook

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pezeshki, S.; Fesharaki, F.

1994-12-01

The Iranian economy and political situation have undergone radical changes since the 1979 Islamic revolution. The excesses of the early years of the revolution have gradually given way to moderation and a more pragmatic economic policy--based on the principles of the free market. The petroleum policy, as a subset of the economic policies, has been somewhat affected by the political and economic developments in Iran. The petroleum policy has changed from a position of no foreign participation to a position that includes a desire for foreign participation, the text of a model contract, and an attempt to introduce new technologies in the upstream sector. This report provides an overview of the key issues facing the Iranian oil industry and the economic context in which the oil industry is operating in Iran. It describes the evolution of policies meant to move the oil industry toward the free market; it discusses Iran`s oil trading partners, the outlook for refining and project investments, and current and likely future developments in the natural gas and petrochemical sectors. In short, the report provides an up-to-date assessment of the Iranian petroleum sector and its likely evolution in the future.

Life-oriented approach for urban policy decision-making: Surveys and applications

OpenAIRE

Junyi Zhang; Yubing Xiong; Minh Tu Tran

2014-01-01

In this study, we propose an additional approach, called life-oriented approach, for supporting urban policy decisions. The life-oriented approach argues that people's decisions on various life choices are not independent of each other and that an understanding of life choices should not be constrained by the boundary of any single discipline. People's life choices are closely linked with the quality of life (QOL), which can be roughly captured from the perspective of life domains such as res...

Merging Energy Policy Decision Support, Education, and Communication: The 'World Energy' Simulation Role-Playing Game

Science.gov (United States)

Rooney-varga, J. N.; Franck, T.; Jones, A.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.

2013-12-01

To meet international goals for climate change mitigation and adaptation, as well as energy access and equity, there is an urgent need to explore and define energy policy paths forward. Despite this need, students, citizens, and decision-makers often hold deeply flawed mental models of the energy and climate systems. Here we describe a simulation role-playing game, World Energy, that provides an immersive learning experience in which participants can create their own path forward for global energy policy and learn about the impact of their policy choices on carbon dioxide emissions, temperature rise, energy supply mix, energy prices, and energy demand. The game puts players in the decision-making roles of advisors to the United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative (drawn from international leaders from industry, governments, intergovernmental organizations, and citizens groups) and, using a state-of-the-art decision-support simulator, asks them to negotiate a plan for global energy policy. We use the En-ROADS (Energy Rapid Overview and Decision Support) simulator, which runs on a laptop computer in <0.1 sec. En-ROADS enables users to specify many factors, including R&D-driven cost reductions in fossil fuel-based, renewable, or carbon-neutral energy technologies; taxes and subsidies for different energy sources; performance standards and energy efficiency; emissions prices; policies to address other greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, etc.); and assumptions about GDP and population. In World Energy, participants must balance climate change mitigation goals with equity, prices and access to energy, and the political feasibility of policies. Initial results indicate participants gain insights into the dynamics of the energy and climate systems and greater understanding of the potential impacts policies.

Committee Structure and its Implications for Monetary Policy Decision-making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.M. Berk (Jan Marc); B.K. Bierut

2003-01-01

textabstractWe investigate the implications for the setting of interest rates when monetary policy decisions are taken by a committee, in which a subset of members may meet prior to the voting in the committee and therefore has the possibility to reach consensus ex ante to vote unanimously ex post.

Committee structure and its implications for monetary policy decision-making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bierut, B.K.; Berk, J.M.

2003-01-01

We investigate the implications for the setting of interest rates when monetary policy decisions are taken by a committee, in which a subset of membersmay meet prior to the voting in the committee and therefore has the possibility to reach consensus ex ante to vote unanimously ex post. We allow

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

Science.gov (United States)

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for

The process of construction of evidence: An analysis of the use of indicators in two decisions of innovation policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boavida, N.; Moniz, A.; Laranja, M.

2016-07-01

Despite increasing calls for evidence-based policies, knowledge about the practical use of evidences remains limited. This paper studies the process of construction of evidences in decisions of innovation policy to understand how evidences were used. It analysis the use of indicators and other evidences through interviews conducted to inquire about the two decisions: an electric mobility policy and a nanotechnology laboratory. Results show indicators and other evidences were brought to decision processes according to their availability and capacity to support the different interests of the actors and the stakeholders. Their role was influenced by the particular situation of the decision makers. More importantly, the use of persuasive analytical evidences appears to be related with the adversity of the policy context. In addition, research suggests that indicators are one tool among others to foster innovation decisions. In fact, the relatively minor instrumental role of indicators suggests that indicators are mostly a complementary instrument of decision. When used relevantly, indicators can offer support to a decision. But there are other significant influences that need to be taken into account to understand the specific role indicators and other evidences play, such as the social relations of the decision makers and their emotional-intuitive decisions. (Author)

Planetary protection policy overview and application to future missions

Science.gov (United States)

Rummel, John D.

1989-01-01

The current status of planetary protection (quarantine) policy within NASA is discussed, together with the issues of planetary protection and back-contamination as related to future missions. The policy adopted by COSPAR in 1984 (and recently reaffirmed by the NASA Administrator) for application to all unmanned missions to other solar system bodies and all manned and unmanned sample return missions is examined. Special attention is given to the implementation of the policy and to the specific quarantine-related constraints on spacecraft involved in solar system exploration that depend on the nature of the mission and the identity of the target body.

Regime change and public policy: the political and macro-economic decision-making of Spanish energy policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lancaster, T.D.

1983-01-01

This dissertation examines the effects of peaceful regime change on public policy-making. Spain's National Energy Plan (PEN) in particular, and energy planning in general, constitute a critical policy issue which permits direct comparison of decision-making across regime change from the Franco dictatorship to the present constitutional monarchy. The research reveals that the nature of the political coalition underlying Spain's regime change accounts of the lack of significant change in policy-making processes in this particular policy issue. This thesis develops a two-pronged argument to explain the absence of significant policy change. The first is based on a general view of the Franco regime's and the democratic system's coalitional support. In each, three major political forces are seen as central: the military, business, and labor. One of these, business, is seen as being pivotal in the regime transition. Business' pivotal position, it is argued, has permitted a defence of a national energy policy beneficial to its economic interests in energy. The argument's second part focuses on the binding constraint on policy outcomes imposed by private interests in state planning and the generally non-binding nature of oppositional party policy proposals and public opinion.

Policy challenges of increasing automation in driving

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ata M. Khan

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The convergence of information and communication technologies (ICT with automotive technologies has already resulted in automation features in road vehicles and this trend is expected to continue in the future owing to consumer demand, dropping costs of components, and improved reliability. While the automation features that have taken place so far are mainly in the form of information and driver warning technologies (classified as level I pre-2010, future developments in the medium term (level II 2010–2025 are expected to exhibit connected cognitive vehicle features and encompass increasing degree of automation in the form of advanced driver assistance systems. Although autonomous vehicles have been developed for research purposes and are being tested in controlled driving missions, the autonomous driving case is only a long term (level III 2025+ scenario. This paper contributes knowledge on technological forecasts regarding automation, policy challenges for each level of technology development and application context, and the essential instrument of cost-effectiveness for policy analysis which enables policy decisions on the automation systems to be assessed in a consistent and balanced manner. The cost of a system per vehicle is viewed against its effectiveness in meeting policy objectives of improving safety, efficiency, mobility, convenience and reducing environmental effects. Example applications are provided that illustrate the contribution of the methodology in providing information for supporting policy decisions. Given the uncertainties in system costs as well as effectiveness, the tool for assessing policies for future generation features probabilistic and utility-theoretic analysis capability. The policy issues defined and the assessment framework enable the resolution of policy challenges while allowing worthy innovative automation in driving to enhance future road transportation.

Assisting Sustainable Forest Management and Forest Policy Planning with the Sim4Tree Decision Support System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Floris Dalemans

2015-03-01

Full Text Available As European forest policy increasingly focuses on multiple ecosystem services and participatory decision making, forest managers and policy planners have a need for integrated, user-friendly, broad spectrum decision support systems (DSS that address risks and uncertainties, such as climate change, in a robust way and that provide credible advice in a transparent manner, enabling effective stakeholder involvement. The Sim4Tree DSS has been accordingly developed as a user-oriented, modular and multipurpose toolbox. Sim4Tree supports strategic and tactical forestry planning by providing simulations of forest development, ecosystem services potential and economic performance through time, from a regional to a stand scale, under various management and climate regimes. Sim4Tree allows comparing the performance of different scenarios with regard to diverse criteria so as to optimize management choices. This paper explains the concept, characteristics, functionalities, components and use of the current Sim4Tree DSS v2.5, which was parameterized for the region of Flanders, Belgium, but can be flexibly adapted to allow a broader use. When considering the current challenges for forestry DSS, an effort has been made towards the participatory component and towards integration, while the lack of robustness remains Sim4Tree’s weakest point. However, its structural flexibility allows many possibilities for future improvement and extension.

A Study of Factors Affecting the Renewal of Health Insurance Policy

OpenAIRE

Bhat Ramesh; Jain Nishant

2007-01-01

Health insurance policies are generally one-year policies and to remain part of the insurance poll, policyholders are required to renew their policies each year. Understanding the factors that affect the demand and renewal decisions to continue in health insurance programme is imperative for future growth and development of the insurance sector. We extend our previous work on factors affecting the decision to purchase health insurance to understand the factors affecting the renewal of insuran...

Energizing Government Decision-Makers with the Facts on Solar Technology, Policy, and Integration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2017-01-01

The Solar Technical Assistance Team (STAT) is a network of solar technology and implementation experts who provide timely, unbiased expertise to assist policymakers and regulators in making informed decisions about solar programs and policies. Government officials can submit requests directly to the STAT for technical assistance. STAT then partners with experts in solar policy, regulation, finance, technology, and other areas to deliver accurate, up-to-date information to state and local decision makers. The STAT responds to requests on a wide range of issues -- including, but not limited to, feed-in tariffs, renewable portfolio standards, rate design, program design, workforce and economic impacts of solar on jurisdictions, and project financing.

Antimalarial drug policy in India: past, present & future.

Science.gov (United States)

Anvikar, Anupkumar R; Arora, Usha; Sonal, G S; Mishra, Neelima; Shahi, Bharatendu; Savargaonkar, Deepali; Kumar, Navin; Shah, Naman K; Valecha, Neena

2014-02-01

The use of antimalarial drugs in India has evolved since the introduction of quinine in the 17 th century. Since the formal establishment of a malaria control programme in 1953, shortly after independence, treatments provided by the public sector ranged from chloroquine, the mainstay drug for many decades, to the newer, recently introduced artemisinin based combination therapy. The complexity of considerations in antimalarial treatment led to the formulation of a National Antimalarial Drug Policy to guide procurement as well as communicate best practices to both public and private healthcare providers. Challenges addressed in the policy include the use of presumptive treatment, the introduction of alternate treatments for drug-resistant malaria, the duration of primaquine therapy to prevent relapses of vivax malaria, the treatment of malaria in pregnancy, and the choice of drugs for chemoprophylaxis. While data on antimalarial drug resistance and both public and private sector treatment practices have been recently reviewed, the policy process of setting national standards has not. In this perspective on antimalarial drug policy, this review highlights its relevant history, analyzes the current policy, and examines future directions.

Dynamic Decision Making in Agricultural Futures and Options Markets?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mattos, F.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

2008-01-01

This paper investigates the dynamics of sequential decision-making in agricultural futures and options markets. Analysis of trading records of 12 traders identified considerable heterogeneity in individual dynamic trading behavior. Using risk measures derived from the deltas and vegas of traderâ¿¿s

Favorable Decision Upholding Radioactive/Hazardous Mixed Waste Storage Civil Enforcement Policy

Science.gov (United States)

This page contains a copy of the U.S. Court of Appeals (District of Columbia Circuit) decision in Edison Electric Institute, et al. v. EPA, No. 91-1586, which upheld the EPA's August 29, 1991, radioactive/hazardous 'mixed waste' storage civil enforcement policy

Analysis of the decision-support function of policy assessment in real-world policy making in the field of poverty and social inequalities. Case study on migrant integration policies in the Brussels-Capital Region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feyaerts, Gille; Deguerry, Murielle; Deboosere, Patrick; De Spiegelaere, Myriam

2017-01-01

Despite its high potential to support decision-making, the role of policy assessment in real-world policy making in the field of poverty and social inequalities remains largely questioned. In this study, we analyse policy assessment's role in a context of real-world policymaking, by means of a case study on a legislative proposal on integration policy for immigrant newcomers in the Brussels-Capital Region, for which we evaluate the potential effects on poverty and social inequalities. We first analyse the policy process surrounding the policy proposal – a process that is often treated as a black box within policy assessment research. Understanding the factors that influence and determine the decision-making process, enables us to gain insight into the potential decision-support function(s). Second, we develop an approach to policy assessment that aims to fully exploit its potential to contribute to the functions of both instrumental and conceptual learning. For this purpose, we propose to introduce the approach of realist evaluation and to focus on evaluating the underlying policy intervention theory from the perspective of poverty and social inequalities. Finally, we illustrate this new approach and its added value by applying it to the legislative proposal on integration policy and analyse its contribution to policy-oriented learning. - Highlights: •The field of policy assessment should draw on insights from policy studies. •We unpacked the policymaking black-box to identify the mechanisms of policy change. •The policy process is driven by an interaction of ideas, interests and institutions. •Policy assessment's potential lies in both instrumental and conceptual learning. •We propose to integrate realist evaluation's logic of inquiry within policy assessment.

Using Markov Decision Processes with Heterogeneous Queueing Systems to Examine Military MEDEVAC Dispatching Policies

Science.gov (United States)

2017-03-23

POLICIES THESIS Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational Sciences Graduate School of Engineering and Management Air Force Institute of Technology...dispatching policy and three practitioner-friendly myopic baseline policies. Two computational experiments, a two-level, five-factor screening design and a...over, an open question exists concerning the best exact solution approach for solving Markov decision problems due to recent advances in performance by

Multi-criteria group decision support with linguistic variables in long-term scenarios for Belgian energy policy

OpenAIRE

Ruan, Da; Lu, Jie; Laes, Erik; Zhang, Guangquan; Ma, Jun; Meskens, Gaston

2010-01-01

Real world decisions often made in the presence of multiple, conflicting, and incommensurate criteria. Decision making requires multiple perspectives of different individuals as more decisions are made now in groups than ever before. This is particularly true when the decision environment becomes more complex such as sustainability policies study in environmental and energy sectors. Group decision making processes judgments or solutions for decision problems based on the input and feedback of...

Scientific literacy for democratic decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Yacoubian, Hagop A.

2018-02-01

Scientifically literate citizens must be able to engage in making decisions on science-based social issues. In this paper, I start by showing examples of science curricula and policy documents that capitalise the importance of engaging future citizens in decision-making processes whether at the personal or at the societal levels. I elucidate the ideological underpinnings behind a number of the statements within those documents that have defined the trajectory of scientific literacy and have shaped what ought to be considered as personal and societal benefits. I argue that science curricula and policy documents can truly endorse scientific literacy when they embed principles of democratic education at their core. The latter entails fostering learning experiences where some of the underlying assumptions and political ideologies are brought to the conscious level and future citizens encouraged to reflect upon them critically and explicitly. Such a proposal empowers the future citizens to engage in critical deliberation on science-based social issues without taking the underlying status quo for granted. I end up the paper by situating the preparation of scientifically literate citizens within a framework of democratic education, discuss conditions through which a curriculum for scientific literacy can serve democratic decision-making processes, and provide modest recommendations.

Influence of institutional culture and policies on do-not-resuscitate decision making at the end of life.

Science.gov (United States)

Dzeng, Elizabeth; Colaianni, Alessandra; Roland, Martin; Chander, Geetanjali; Smith, Thomas J; Kelly, Michael P; Barclay, Stephen; Levine, David

2015-05-01

Controversy exists regarding whether the decision to pursue a do-not-resuscitate (DNR) order should be grounded in an ethic of patient autonomy or in the obligation to act in the patient's best interest (beneficence). To explore how physicians' approaches to DNR decision making at the end of life are shaped by institutional cultures and policies surrounding patient autonomy. We performed semistructured in-depth qualitative interviews of 58 internal medicine physicians from 4 academic medical centers (3 in the United States and 1 in the United Kingdom) by years of experience and medical subspecialty from March 7, 2013, through January 8, 2014. Hospitals were selected based on expected differences in hospital culture and variations in hospital policies regarding prioritization of autonomy vs best interest. This study identified the key influences of institutional culture and policies on physicians' attitudes toward patient autonomy in DNR decision making at the end of life. A hospital's prioritization of autonomy vs best interest as reflected in institutional culture and policy appeared to influence the way that physician trainees conceptualized patient autonomy. This finding may have influenced the degree of choice and recommendations physician trainees were willing to offer regarding DNR decision making. Trainees at hospitals where policies and culture prioritized autonomy-focused approaches appeared to have an unreflective deference to autonomy and felt compelled to offer the choice of resuscitation neutrally in all situations regardless of whether they believed resuscitation to be clinically appropriate. In contrast, trainees at hospitals where policies and culture prioritized best-interest-focused approaches appeared to be more comfortable recommending against resuscitation in situations where survival was unlikely. Experienced physicians at all sites similarly did not exclusively allow their actions to be defined by policies and institutional culture and were

Portfolio assessments for future generation investment in newly industrializing countries – A case study of Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

2012-01-01

This paper assesses future electricity generation portfolios in Thailand in 2030 given uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing policies, electricity demand, and capital costs. Thailand faces challenges for generation investment given its rapid socio-economic progress and fast growing demand. A novel generation investment and planning decision-support tool which incorporates a Monte Carlo extension to conventional optimal generation mix methods combined with portfolio-based analysis techniques, is used. The tool can formally assess tradeoffs between expected future generation costs, cost uncertainties, and CO 2 emissions for the range of different generation portfolios. Results highlight that different levels of future carbon pricing will have significant impacts on the most appropriate generation portfolios. The impact of carbon pricing, however, is not on the appropriate proportion of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) in the mix but, instead, on the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. Compared with the current proposed 2030 generation mix, it is possible that there are other generation portfolios that offer lower expected costs, cost uncertainty, and CO 2 emissions depending on future carbon pricing. Results suggest that this investment decision-support approach may have value for electric utilities and policy-makers contemplating significant generation investments under high future uncertainty and conflicting policy objectives. -- Highlights: ► Assess Thailand's future generation portfolios in 2030 under uncertainties. ► Future carbon prices have significant impacts on the appropriate generation mixes. ► Carbon pricing affects the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. ► There may be more appropriate alternatives than the proposed 2030 generation mix. ► This decision-support approach has value for utility and policy decision-making.

The European higher education area between critical reflections and future policies

CERN Document Server

Matei, Liviu; Pricopie, Remus; Salmi, Jamil; Scott, Peter

2015-01-01

Bridging the gap between higher education research and policy making was always a challenge, but the recent calls for more evidence-based policies have opened a window of unprecedented opportunity for researchers to bring more contributions to shaping the future of the European Higher Education Area (EHEA).

Improving energy decisions towards better scientific policy advice for a safe and secure future energy system

CERN Document Server

Droste-Franke, Bert; Kaiser, M; Schreurs, Miranda; Weber, Christoph; Ziesemer, Thomas

2015-01-01

Managing a successful transition of the current energy supply system to less carbon emitting options, ensuring a safe and secure supply during the whole process and in the long term, is one of the largest challenges of our time. Various approaches and first implementations show that it is not only technological issue, but also a matter of societal acceptance and acceptability, considering basic ethic values of the society. The main foci of the book are, thus, to develop an understanding about the specific challenges of the scientific policy advice in the area, to explore typical current approaches for the analysis of future energy systems and to develop criteria for the quality assessment and guidelines for the improvement of such studies. The book provides assistance to the interpretation of existing studies and guidelines for setting up and carrying out new analyses as well as for communicating and applying the results. Thereby, it aims to support the involved actors such as the respective scientific expert...

Building models for marketing decisions : Past, present and future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leeflang, PSH; Wittink, DR

We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models

On developing a prospecting tool for wind industry and policy decision support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKeown, Charles; Adelaja, Adesoji; Calnin, Benjamin

2011-01-01

This paper presents the rudiments of a Wind Prospecting Tool designed to inform private and public decision makers involved in wind industry development in reducing transaction costs associated with identifying areas of mutual focus within a state. The multiple layer decision support framework has proven to be valuable to industry, state government and local decision makers. Information on wind resources, land availability, potential land costs, potential NIMBYism concerns and economic development potential were integrated to develop a framework for decision support. The paper also highlights implications for decision support research and the role of higher education in providing anticipatory science to enhance private and public choices in economic development. - Research Highlights: →In this paper we explore the building and value of a wind industry location decision support tool. →We examine the development process from the industry perspective. →We discuss the creation of a decision support tool that was designed for industry, state policy makers and local decision makers. →We build a model framework for wind prospecting decision support. →Finally we discuss the impact on local and state decision making as a result of being informed by science based decision support.

The Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report: A Scientific Basis for Policy and Management Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Birdsey, R.; Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Najjar, R.; Romero-Lankao, P.

2017-12-01

The second "State of the Carbon Cycle of North America Report" (SOCCR-2) includes an overview of the North American carbon budget and future projections, the consequences of changes to the carbon budget, details of the carbon budget in major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (including coastal ocean waters), information about anthropogenic drivers, and implications for policy and carbon management. SOCCR-2 includes new focus areas such as soil carbon, arctic and boreal ecosystems, tribal lands, and greater emphasis on aquatic systems and the role of societal drivers and decision making on the carbon cycle. In addition, methane is considered to a greater extent than before. SOCCR-2 will contribute to the next U.S. National Climate Assessment, as well as providing information to support science-based management decisions and policies that include climate change mitigation and adaptation in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. Although the Report is still in the review process, preliminary findings indicate that North America is a net emitter of carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere, and that natural sinks offset about 25% of emitted carbon dioxide. Combustion of fossil fuels represents the largest source of emissions, but show a decreasing trend over the last decade and a lower share (20%) of the global total compared with the previous decade. Forests, soils, grasslands, and coastal oceans comprise the largest carbon sinks, while emissions from inland waters are a significant source of carbon dioxide. The Report also documents the lateral transfers of carbon among terrestrial ecosystems and from terrestrial to near-coastal ecosystems, to complete the carbon cycle accounting. Further, the Report explores the consequences of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on terrestrial and oceanic systems, and the capacity of these systems to continue to act as carbon sinks based on the drivers of future carbon cycle changes, including carbon-climate feedbacks

Renewable energy support policy in Spain : An analysis of the decision-making process (1994-2014)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leston, D.

2014-01-01

In this paper, the decision-making process behind the RE support policy will be explored in order to answer the following research questions: “why has the policy-making process been revised so many times?” and “how can such a drastic change on the RE support policy be explained?” The answer is found

Antimalarial drug policy in India: Past, present & future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anupkumar R Anvikar

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The use of antimalarial drugs in India has evolved since the introduction of quinine in the 17 th century. Since the formal establishment of a malaria control programme in 1953, shortly after independence, treatments provided by the public sector ranged from chloroquine, the mainstay drug for many decades, to the newer, recently introduced artemisinin based combination therapy. The complexity of considerations in antimalarial treatment led to the formulation of a National Antimalarial Drug Policy to guide procurement as well as communicate best practices to both public and private healthcare providers. Challenges addressed in the policy include the use of presumptive treatment, the introduction of alternate treatments for drug-resistant malaria, the duration of primaquine therapy to prevent relapses of vivax malaria, the treatment of malaria in pregnancy, and the choice of drugs for chemoprophylaxis. While data on antimalarial drug resistance and both public and private sector treatment practices have been recently reviewed, the policy process of setting national standards has not. In this perspective on antimalarial drug policy, this review highlights its relevant history, analyzes the current policy, and examines future directions.

How Qualitative Research Informs Clinical and Policy Decision Making in Transplantation: A Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Allison; Morton, Rachael L; Webster, Angela C

2016-09-01

Patient-centered care is no longer just a buzzword. It is now widely touted as a cornerstone in delivering quality care across all fields of medicine. However, patient-centered strategies and interventions necessitate evidence about patients' decision-making processes, values, priorities, and needs. Qualitative research is particularly well suited to understanding the experience and perspective of patients, donors, clinicians, and policy makers on a wide range of transplantation-related topics including organ donation and allocation, adherence to prescribed therapy, pretransplant and posttransplant care, implementation of clinical guidelines, and doctor-patient communication. In transplantation, evidence derived from qualitative research has been integrated into strategies for shared decision-making, patient educational resources, process evaluations of trials, clinical guidelines, and policies. The aim of this article is to outline key concepts and methods used in qualitative research, guide the appraisal of qualitative studies, and assist clinicians to understand how qualitative research may inform their practice and policy.

Oak policy and management in California: Spanish origins and future considerations

Science.gov (United States)

James W. Bartolome; Lynn. Huntsinger

2015-01-01

The development of goals and policies for Californian oak woodlands is reviewed; then some important considerations for future policy development are highlighted. California and Spain share long and illuminating histories of human interaction with oak woodlands. The Integrated Hardwood Range Management Program, initiated about 1985, was a focal point for Californian...

Global mHealth policy arena: status check and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Malvey, Donna M; Slovensky, Donna J

2017-01-01

In this review, we examine an important piece of the mHealth puzzle that has received scant attention-health policy. The question is whether health policy ultimately will serve to unite nations in advancing global mHealth or, as Mars and Scott suggested in 2010, keep nations isolated and ultimately making their policy decisions in "eHealth silos". Such a non-collaborative approach seriously hampers the potential for using mobile health technologies to deliver health care across borders, assuring individuals access to affordable, convenient, and quality healthcare in underserved regions. From a global perspective, mHealth policy review is difficult as some important policies may be subsumed in comprehensive planning and strategy documents. Political, environmental, economic, organizational, and technology disparities across nations represent a significant impediment to developing mHealth products and services that can be deployed globally. To date, there is modest evidence that such challenges are being addressed. Even though payers can encourage adoption of mHealth with financial incentives for use, it appears that payment or reimbursement tends to be a roadblock for almost all nations, whether they are emerging or developed. If payment for mHealth services is not guaranteed, business models will not be sustainable and providers will have fewer opportunities for scalability. Furthermore, because mHealth policies typically are subject to some type of government scrutiny and oversight, many product developers and entrepreneurs may turn elsewhere for their investments. Global resource scarcity also challenges optimal mHealth deployment, and governments seek to ensure improved population health outcomes as return on their mHealth investments. Unfortunately, such justification is difficult as evaluation methods simply have not kept pace with mHealth technology capability. Requisite measurement tools are sorely lacking when it comes to evaluating efficacy of m

Review of Family Financial Decision Making: Suggestions for Future Research and Implications for Financial Education

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jinhee; Gutter, Michael S.; Spangler, Taylor

2017-01-01

This article reviews the theories and literature in intrahousehold financial decisions, spousal partners and financial decision making, family system and financial decision process, children, and financial decisions. The article draws conclusions from the literature review and discusses directions for future research and educational programs. Most…

Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling

Science.gov (United States)

Poff, N. Leroy; Brown, Casey M.; Grantham, Theodore E.; Matthews, John H.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Spence, Caitlin M.; Wilby, Robert L.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Mendoza, Guillermo F.; Dominique, Kathleen C.; Baeza, Andres

2016-01-01

Managing freshwater resources sustainably under future climatic and hydrological uncertainty poses novel challenges. Rehabilitation of ageing infrastructure and construction of new dams are widely viewed as solutions to diminish climate risk, but attaining the broad goal of freshwater sustainability will require expansion of the prevailing water resources management paradigm beyond narrow economic criteria to include socially valued ecosystem functions and services. We introduce a new decision framework, eco-engineering decision scaling (EEDS), that explicitly and quantitatively explores trade-offs in stakeholder-defined engineering and ecological performance metrics across a range of possible management actions under unknown future hydrological and climate states. We illustrate its potential application through a hypothetical case study of the Iowa River, USA. EEDS holds promise as a powerful framework for operationalizing freshwater sustainability under future hydrological uncertainty by fostering collaboration across historically conflicting perspectives of water resource engineering and river conservation ecology to design and operate water infrastructure for social and environmental benefits.

Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling

Science.gov (United States)

Poff, N LeRoy; Brown, Casey M; Grantham, Theodore E.; Matthews, John H; Palmer, Margaret A.; Spence, Caitlin M; Wilby, Robert L.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Mendoza, Guillermo F; Dominique, Kathleen C; Baeza, Andres

2015-01-01

Managing freshwater resources sustainably under future climatic and hydrological uncertainty poses novel challenges. Rehabilitation of ageing infrastructure and construction of new dams are widely viewed as solutions to diminish climate risk, but attaining the broad goal of freshwater sustainability will require expansion of the prevailing water resources management paradigm beyond narrow economic criteria to include socially valued ecosystem functions and services. We introduce a new decision framework, eco-engineering decision scaling (EEDS), that explicitly and quantitatively explores trade-offs in stakeholder-defined engineering and ecological performance metrics across a range of possible management actions under unknown future hydrological and climate states. We illustrate its potential application through a hypothetical case study of the Iowa River, USA. EEDS holds promise as a powerful framework for operationalizing freshwater sustainability under future hydrological uncertainty by fostering collaboration across historically conflicting perspectives of water resource engineering and river conservation ecology to design and operate water infrastructure for social and environmental benefits.

Deploying Renewables - Best and Future Policy Practice

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-11-23

The global energy system faces urgent challenges. Concerns about energy security are growing, as highlighted by the recent political turmoil in Northern Africa and the nuclear incident in Fukushima. At the same time, the need to respond to climate change is more critical than ever. Against this background, many governments have increased efforts to promote deployment of renewable energy -- low-carbon sources that can strengthen energy security. This has stimulated unprecedented rise in deployment, and renewables are now the fastest growing sector of the energy mix. This 'coming of age' of renewable energy also brings challenges. Growth is focused on a few of the available technologies, and rapid deployment is confined to a relatively small number of countries. In more advanced markets, managing support costs and system integration of large shares of renewable energy in a time of economic weakness and budget austerity has sparked vigorous political debate. The IEA's new report, Deploying Renewables 2011: Best and Future Policy Practice: - Provides a comprehensive review and analysis of renewable energy policy and market trends; - Analyses in detail the dynamics of deployment and provides best-practice policy principles for different stages of market maturity; - Assesses the impact and cost-effectiveness of support policies using new methodological tools and indicators; - Investigates the strategic reasons underpinning the pursuit of RE deployment by different countries and the prospects for globalisation of RE. This new book builds on and extends a 2008 IEA publication, drawing on recent policy and deployment experience world-wide. It provides guidance for policy makers and other stakeholders to avoid past mistakes, overcome new challenges and reap the benefits of deploying renewables -- today and tomorrow.

Transport and energy policy. Looking to the future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aaltonen, T [European Commission (Belgium)

1996-12-01

In the quest of filling human needs, transport and energy do not appear to be the most exciting territories. They come in only later in the vast chain of commodities and services necessary in the smooth operation of a modern market economy. However, current concerns about pollution and the future of our planet have lifted these issues to the top of the agenda. The objective of this paper is to give a glance at the complexity of possible futures facing us. Indeed, one of the main objectives is to show that there are different paths to be taken and we can influence our future. Furthermore, it will be shown that a key element in planning for different futures is the proper choice of energy policy objectives and instruments. An even bigger impact could be expected from the changing paradigms in transport demand patterns. (au)

On the verge of shared decision making in Israel: Overview and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Karnieli-Miller, Orit; Miron-Shatz, Talya; Siegal, Gil; Zisman-Ilani, Yaara

2017-06-01

Israel has a universal-national healthcare system and a progressive health policy legislation which, together, provide its residents with high-level healthcare services and either free or highly subsidized coverage without any pre-existing conditions. However, it is surprising that shared decision making (SDM) practices and policy are not an integral part of Israel's healthcare system. The purpose of this overview is to describe the gap between the organizational-infrastructure compatibility of Israel's universal healthcare policy and the efforts needed to advance SDM as part of routine healthcare practice. Review of recent research and education initiatives will be described as well as recommendations for policy and clinical practice. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Building a maintenance policy through a multi-criterion decision-making model

Science.gov (United States)

Faghihinia, Elahe; Mollaverdi, Naser

2012-08-01

A major competitive advantage of production and service systems is establishing a proper maintenance policy. Therefore, maintenance managers should make maintenance decisions that best fit their systems. Multi-criterion decision-making methods can take into account a number of aspects associated with the competitiveness factors of a system. This paper presents a multi-criterion decision-aided maintenance model with three criteria that have more influence on decision making: reliability, maintenance cost, and maintenance downtime. The Bayesian approach has been applied to confront maintenance failure data shortage. Therefore, the model seeks to make the best compromise between these three criteria and establish replacement intervals using Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE II), integrating the Bayesian approach with regard to the preference of the decision maker to the problem. Finally, using a numerical application, the model has been illustrated, and for a visual realization and an illustrative sensitivity analysis, PROMETHEE GAIA (the visual interactive module) has been used. Use of PROMETHEE II and PROMETHEE GAIA has been made with Decision Lab software. A sensitivity analysis has been made to verify the robustness of certain parameters of the model.

The application of system dynamics modelling to environmental health decision-making and policy - a scoping review.

Science.gov (United States)

Currie, Danielle J; Smith, Carl; Jagals, Paul

2018-03-27

Policy and decision-making processes are routinely challenged by the complex and dynamic nature of environmental health problems. System dynamics modelling has demonstrated considerable value across a number of different fields to help decision-makers understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of complex systems in support the development of effective policy actions. In this scoping review we investigate if, and in what contexts, system dynamics modelling is being used to inform policy or decision-making processes related to environmental health. Four electronic databases and the grey literature were systematically searched to identify studies that intersect the areas environmental health, system dynamics modelling, and decision-making. Studies identified in the initial screening were further screened for their contextual, methodological and application-related relevancy. Studies deemed 'relevant' or 'highly relevant' according to all three criteria were included in this review. Key themes related to the rationale, impact and limitation of using system dynamics in the context of environmental health decision-making and policy were analysed. We identified a limited number of relevant studies (n = 15), two-thirds of which were conducted between 2011 and 2016. The majority of applications occurred in non-health related sectors (n = 9) including transportation, public utilities, water, housing, food, agriculture, and urban and regional planning. Applications were primarily targeted at micro-level (local, community or grassroots) decision-making processes (n = 9), with macro-level (national or international) decision-making to a lesser degree. There was significant heterogeneity in the stated rationales for using system dynamics and the intended impact of the system dynamics model on decision-making processes. A series of user-related, technical and application-related limitations and challenges were identified. None of the reported limitations or challenges

The Influence of Future Command, Control, Communications, and Computers (C4) on Doctrine and the Operational Commander's Decision-Making Process

Science.gov (United States)

Mayer, Michael G.

1996-01-01

Future C4 systems will alter the traditional balance between force and information, having a profound influence on doctrine and the operational commander's decision making process. The Joint Staff's future vision of C4 is conceptualized in 'C4I for the Warrior' which envisions a joint C4I architecture providing timely sensor to shoot information direct to the warfighter. C4 system must manage and filter an overwhelming amount of information; deal with interoperability issues; overcome technological limitations; meet emerging security requirements; and protect against 'Information Warfare.' Severe budget constraints necessitate unified control of C4 systems under singular leadership for the common good of all the services. In addition, acquisition policy and procedures must be revamped to allow new technologies to be fielded quickly; and the commercial marketplace will become the preferred starting point for modernization. Flatter command structures are recommended in this environment where information is available instantaneously. New responsibilities for decision making at lower levels are created. Commanders will have to strike a balance between exerting greater control and allowing subordinates enough flexibility to maintain initiative. Clearly, the commander's intent remains the most important tool in striking this balance.

Future fertility for individuals with differences of sex development: Parent attitudes and perspectives about decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Emilie K; Rosoklija, Ilina; Shurba, Angela; D'Oro, Anthony; Gordon, Elisa J; Chen, Diane; Finlayson, Courtney; Holl, Jane L

2017-08-01

Children, adolescents, and young adults (children/youth) with differences/disorders of sex development (DSD) face challenges related to future fertility; this may be due to variations in gonadal development, and, for some, gonadectomy performed to reduce the risk of malignancy. Childhood may be the only time for preservation of biological fertility potential for children/youth who undergo gonadectomy or have early gonadal failure. Fertility-related decision-making for these patients is particularly complicated, due to the need for parental proxy decision-making, potential discordance between gender identity and gonadal type, and uncertain future assisted reproductive technologies. This study aimed to assess: (1) attitudes regarding future fertility, and (2) healthcare needs for fertility-related decision-making among parents of children/youth with DSD. Semi-structured qualitative interviews about future fertility were conducted with parents of children/youth with DSD. Parents who had never discussed fertility with a healthcare provider were excluded. Grounded theory methodology was used to identify emergent themes and patterns. Demographics and clinical characteristics were assessed via survey and medical chart review. Nineteen parents were interviewed (participation rate: 60%, 14 mothers/5 fathers, median patient age at diagnosis 6 months (range 0-192), eight DSD diagnoses). The most common emergent themes are summarized in the Summary Table. Most parents identified fertility as a key concern, both at time of diagnosis and throughout development. Parents expressed difficulty with timing of disclosure about potential infertility to their children. Multiple preferences related to medical decision-making about future fertility and fertility preservation were expressed, including: a desire for step-by-step decision-making, and use of medically vetted information and research to guide decisions. This qualitative study provided new information about the perspectives of

The EVOTION Decision Support System: Utilizing It for Public Health Policy-Making in Hearing Loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Katrakazas, Panagiotis; Trenkova, Lyubov; Milas, Josip; Brdaric, Dario; Koutsouris, Dimitris

2017-01-01

As Decision Support Systems start to play a significant role in decision making, especially in the field of public-health policy making, we present an initial attempt to formulate such a system in the concept of public health policy making for hearing loss related problems. Justification for the system's conceptual architecture and its key functionalities are presented. The introduction of the EVOTION DSS sets a key innovation and a basis for paradigm shift in policymaking, by incorporating relevant models, big data analytics and generic demographic data. Expected outcomes for this joint effort are discussed from a public-health point of view.

Accelerating policy decisions to adopt haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine: a global, multivariable analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Shearer, Jessica C; Stack, Meghan L; Richmond, Marcie R; Bear, Allyson P; Hajjeh, Rana A; Bishai, David M

2010-03-16

Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance). Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76), or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75). For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04). Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

Modeling decision making as a support tool for policy making on renewable energy development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cannemi, Marco; García-Melón, Mónica; Aragonés-Beltrán, Pablo; Gómez-Navarro, Tomás

2014-01-01

This paper presents the findings of a study on decision making models for the analysis of capital-risk investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. The aim of the work is to improve the support tools for policy makers in the field of renewable energy development. Analytic Network Process (ANP) helps to better understand capital-risk investors preferences towards different kinds of biomass fueled power plants. The results of the research allow public administration to better foresee the investors’ reaction to the incentive system, or to modify the incentive system to better drive investors’ decisions. Changing the incentive system is seen as major risk by investors. Therefore, public administration must design better and longer-term incentive systems, forecasting market reactions. For that, two scenarios have been designed, one showing a typical decision making process and another proposing an improved decision making scenario. A case study conducted in Italy has revealed that ANP allows understanding how capital-risk investors interpret the situation and make decisions when investing on biomass power plants; the differences between the interests of public administrations’s and promoters’, how decision making could be influenced by adding new decision criteria, and which case would be ranked best according to the decision models. - Highlights: • We applied ANP to the investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. • The aim is to improve the advising tools for renewable energy policy making. • A case study has been carried out with the help of two experts. • We designed two scenarios: decision making as it is and how could it be improved. • Results prove ANP is a fruitful tool enhancing participation and transparency

Addressing preference heterogeneity in public health policy by combining Cluster Analysis and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaltoft, Mette Kjer; Turner, Robin; Cunich, Michelle

2015-01-01

The use of subgroups based on biological-clinical and socio-demographic variables to deal with population heterogeneity is well-established in public policy. The use of subgroups based on preferences is rare, except when religion based, and controversial. If it were decided to treat subgroup...... preferences as valid determinants of public policy, a transparent analytical procedure is needed. In this proof of method study we show how public preferences could be incorporated into policy decisions in a way that respects both the multi-criterial nature of those decisions, and the heterogeneity...... techniques of CA to demonstrate that not only do different techniques produce different clusters, but that choosing among techniques (as well as developing the MCDA structure) is an important task to be undertaken in implementing the approach outlined in any specific policy context. Data for the illustrative...

Getting value today and incentivising for the future: Pharmaceutical development and healthcare policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kasper Munk Johannesen

2015-05-01

Full Text Available To manage the challenge of limited healthcare resources and unlimited demand for healthcare, decision makers utilise a variety of demand side policies, such as health technology appraisals and international reference pricing to regulate price and utilisation. By controlling price and utilisation demand side policies determine the earnings potential, and hence the incentives to invest in research and development (R&D of new technologies. However, the impact of demand side policies on R&D incentives is seldom formally assessed.Based on the key assumption that intellectual property rights, i.e. patents, and expected rent are key drivers of pharmaceutical R&D, this work outlines a framework illustrating the link between demand side policies and pharmaceutical R&D incentives. By analysing how policies impact expected rent and consumer surplus, the framework is used to understand how commonly used demand side policies (including timing and length of reimbursement process, international reference pricing, parallel trade, and sequential adoption into clinical practice may influence R&D incentives.The analysis demonstrates that delayed reimbursement decisions as well as sequential adoption into clinical practise may in fact reduce both expected rent and consumer surplus. It is also demonstrated how international reference pricing is likely to increase consumer surplus at the expense of lower rent and thus lower R&D incentives.Although this work illustrates the importance of considering how demand side policies may impact long-term R&D incentives, it is important to note that the purpose has not been to prescribe which demand side policies should be utilised or how. Rather, the main contribution is to illustrate the need for a structured approach to the analysis of the complex, and at times highly politicised question of how demand side policies ultimately influence population health, both in the short and in the long term. 

Future of US utilities under non-proliferation policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ladesich, J.N.

1978-01-01

The non-proliferation policy, a negative policy that closes the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, is only a small part of a chaotic energy environment characterized by inaction. The impact of this environment on California utilities has resulted in a virtual moratorium on new facilities at a time when the nuclear option can be shown to be vital. Utilities are experiencing uncertainties in future power generation because alternatives to nuclear energy may not be the best choices. Utilities feel frustrated by the inaction; not by the objectives of the accountability and security proposals. The utilities will continue to support nuclear power and the completion of the fuel cycle in spite of these uncertainties

Political and Economic Decisions and Competition – What is the Efficient Antimonopoly Policy?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irakli Lekvinadze

2014-03-01

Full Text Available This article discusses the influence of economic decisions which affect the antitrust and competition support policies. Many countries provide governmental initiatives for improving antirust legislation. There is an effort to develop efficient legislation, to define market boundaries, to identify dominating companies, and to prevent cartel development. A review of the literature has shown that refined legislation does not work. Qualified and non-politicized economic decisions are required to provide fair and equitable competition in the marketplace. The discussions of various researchers are profiled on the economic issues. This article analyzes The Republic of Georgia’s 20 year unique market experiences in Eastern Europe. Recommendations have been proposed to increase the effectiveness of an anti-monopoly policy. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

Analysing pseudoephedrine/methamphetamine policy options in Australia using multi-criteria decision modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Manning, Matthew; Wong, Gabriel T W; Ransley, Janet; Smith, Christine

2016-06-01

In this paper we capture and synthesize the unique knowledge of experts so that choices regarding policy measures to address methamphetamine consumption and dependency in Australia can be strengthened. We examine perceptions of the: (1) influence of underlying factors that impact on the methamphetamine problem; (2) importance of various models of intervention that have the potential to affect the success of policies; and (3) efficacy of alternative pseudoephedrine policy options. We adopt a multi-criteria decision model to unpack factors that affect decisions made by experts and examine potential variations on weight/preference among groups. Seventy experts from five groups (i.e. academia (18.6%), government and policy (27.1%), health (18.6%), pharmaceutical (17.1%) and police (18.6%)) in Australia participated in the survey. Social characteristics are considered the most important underlying factor, prevention the most effective strategy and Project STOP the most preferred policy option with respect to reducing methamphetamine consumption and dependency in Australia. One-way repeated ANOVAs indicate a statistically significant difference with regards to the influence of underlying factors (F(2.3, 144.5)=11.256, pmethamphetamine consumption and dependency. Most experts support the use of preventative mechanisms to inhibit drug initiation and delayed drug uptake. Compared to other policies, Project STOP (which aims to disrupt the initial diversion of pseudoephedrine) appears to be a more preferable preventative mechanism to control the production and subsequent sale and use of methamphetamine. This regulatory civil law lever engages third parties in controlling drug-related crime. The literature supports third-party partnerships as it engages experts who have knowledge and expertise with respect to prevention and harm minimization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Why Are Cultural Policy Decisions Communicated in Cool Cash?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bille, Trine; Grønholm, Adam; Møgelgaard, Jeppe

2016-01-01

In this article, we analyze the role of the economic rationale in modern cultural policy decision communication and ask why it remains such an important factor, even though research has argued against it. Based on Luhmann’s system theory, we show how the economic rationale manifests itself...... in the cultural political communication as parasitic and complementary couplings, and how different communication forms are in play: the indirect, direct, and the both-and form. The point is to construct communicative positions in cultural policy. The positions involve the economic rationale in their own...... particular way and each of them offers themselves as a communicative platform which the culture politician can optionally step into and out of. The arts system stands out from other systems by not distinguishing itself in one single distinction and coding. In exactly this issue lies the communicative...

Applying air pollution modelling within a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to evaluate UK air quality policies

Science.gov (United States)

Chalabi, Zaid; Milojevic, Ai; Doherty, Ruth M.; Stevenson, David S.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Milner, James; Vieno, Massimo; Williams, Martin; Wilkinson, Paul

2017-10-01

A decision support system for evaluating UK air quality policies is presented. It combines the output from a chemistry transport model, a health impact model and other impact models within a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework. As a proof-of-concept, the MCDA framework is used to evaluate and compare idealized emission reduction policies in four sectors (combustion in energy and transformation industries, non-industrial combustion plants, road transport and agriculture) and across six outcomes or criteria (mortality, health inequality, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, crop yield and air quality legal compliance). To illustrate a realistic use of the MCDA framework, the relative importance of the criteria were elicited from a number of stakeholders acting as proxy policy makers. In the prototype decision problem, we show that reducing emissions from industrial combustion (followed very closely by road transport and agriculture) is more advantageous than equivalent reductions from the other sectors when all the criteria are taken into account. Extensions of the MCDA framework to support policy makers in practice are discussed.

COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY FROM HEALTH CHECK DECISIONS TO THE POST-2013 REFORM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niculescu Oana Marilena

2011-07-01

Full Text Available The paper proposed for being presented belongs to the field research International Affairs and European Integration. The paper entitled Common Agricultural Policy from Health Check decisions to the post-2013 reform aims to analyze the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP from the Health Check adoption in November 2008 to a new reform post-2013. The objectives of the paper are the presentation of the Health Check with its advantages and disadvantages as well as the analysis of the opportunity of a new European policy and its reforming having in view that the analysis of Health Check condition was considered a compromise. The paper is related to the internal and international research consisting in several books, studies, documents that analyze the particularities of the most debated, controversial and reformed EU policy. A personal study is represented by the first report within the PhD paper called The reform of CAP and its implications for Romanias agriculture(coordinator prof. Gheorghe Hurduzeu PhD, Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, Faculty of International Business, research studies in the period 2009-2012. The research methodology used consists in collecting and analysis data from national and international publications, their validation, followed by a dissemination of the results in order to express a personal opinion regarding CAP and its reform. The results of the research consist in proving the opportunity of a new reform due to the fact that Health Check belongs already to the past. The paper belongs to the field research mentioned, in the attempt to prove the opportunity of building a new EU agricultural policy. The challenges CAP is facing are: food safety, environmental and climate changes, territorial balance as well as new challenges-improving sustainable management of natural resources, maintaining competitiveness in the context of globalization growth, strengthening EU cohesion in rural areas, increasing the support of CAP for

The role of forecasts in monetary policy

OpenAIRE

Jeffery D. Amato; Thomas Laubach

2000-01-01

Forecasts of future economic developments play an important role for the monetary policy decisions of central banks. For example, forecasts of goal variables can help central banks achieve their goals and make them more accountable to the public. There are two primary explanations for the benefits of forecasts. The first is that monetary policy affects goal variables such as inflation and output only with substantial lags. Policy actions should, therefore, be based on forecasts of goal variab...

Inter-generational Decision Making for Radioactive Waste Disposal, Policy and Science: Regulatory Protection Forever?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Regnier, E.P.; Wallo, A.

2006-01-01

Assumptions about this generation's duty to future generations underlie decisions on regulatory requirements for disposal of radioactive waste. Regulatory provisions related to time of compliance, dose criteria, and institutional controls, for example, continue to be topics of discussion as regulations are revised or compared. Subjective and difficult ethical issues are either explicit or implicit in these discussions. The information and criteria used must be relevant and help make good decisions that, ideally, increase the overall welfare of future generations. To what extent can or should science usefully inform such decision-making? Both the National Academies of Science and the National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) have reported on this topic, albeit from different viewpoints. This paper explains and expands upon the rationale used for setting compliance time periods such as the Department of Energy's requirement for a 1,000 year time of compliance with dose limits for low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities. It evaluates radioactive waste disposal against principles of equity recommended by NAPA. Radioactive waste disposal standards require evaluation of impacts much farther into the future than has been common for other endeavors with very long term effects. While performance assessment analyses provide much useful information, their inherent uncertainties over long time periods preclude the projection of reality. Thus, the usefulness of extremely long projections in supporting good decisions that promote the welfare of future generations is limited. Such decisions are fundamentally a question of resource allocation, equity, and fairness. (authors)

The Relevance of Theories of the Policy Process to Educational Decision-Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, R. J.

1985-01-01

Two case studies of educational decision making are used to test the utility of some current theories of the policy-formation process; a framework for the application of these theories is proposed; and the merits of applying existing theories before seeking new paradigms are stressed. (MSE)

What Policy Actors Seek for: Reciprocal Misunderstanding of Objectives of Participatory Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Birutė PITRĖNAITĖ-ŽILĖNIENĖ

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The goal of this research is to explore different policy actors’ attitudes towards participation in public decision making. The paper examines objectives of external participants’ involvement and compares various participants’ judgements on the process and results of participation. We screened operation of formal networks of participatory decision making at the Lithuanian Ministries of Health and Education & Science. The research revealed the willingness of decision makers to allow different stakeholders to contribute to the solution of problems of diverse character. The results of interviews manifested reciprocal miscommunication towards objectives and results of participatory decision making. Public administrators demonstrated their high willingness to acquire expertise, while external participants sought to present specific interests and got them implemented as well. However, it has to be admitted that decision makers are not committed to the results generated by stakeholders.

Consumer Decision-Making Abilities and Long-Term Care Insurance Purchase.

Science.gov (United States)

McGarry, Brian E; Tempkin-Greener, Helena; Grabowski, David C; Chapman, Benjamin P; Li, Yue

2018-04-16

To determine the impact of consumer decision-making abilities on making a long-term care insurance (LTCi) purchasing decision that is consistent with normative economic predictions regarding policy ownership. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, multivariate analyses are implemented to estimate the effect of decision-making ability factors on owning LTCi. Stratified multivariate analyses are used to examine the effect of decision-making abilities on the likelihood of adhering to economic predictions of LTCi ownership. In the full sample, better cognitive capacity was found to significantly increase the odds of ownership. When the sample was stratified based on expected LTCi ownership status, cognitive capacity was positively associated with ownership among those predicted to own and negatively associated with ownership among those predicted not to own who could likely afford a policy. Consumer decision-making abilities, specifically cognitive capacity, are an important determinant of LTCi decision outcomes. Deficits in this ability may prevent individuals from successfully preparing for future long-term care expenses. Policy makers should consider changes that reduce the cognitive burden of this choice, including the standardization of the LTCi market, the provision of consumer decision aids, and alternatives to voluntary and private insuring mechanisms.

Engaging farmers to inform future diffuse pollution policy in England

Science.gov (United States)

Vrain, Emilie; Lovett, Andrew; Nobel, Lister; Grant, Fiona; Blundell, Paul; Cleasby, Will

2013-04-01

Stakeholder knowledge and engagement is increasingly seen as a necessary ingredient for catchment management. Whilst many agricultural management options remain voluntary, the implementation of diffuse pollution mitigation measures will only be effective with the cooperation of stakeholders. Anthony et al. (2009) and Zhang et al. (2012) state the need for more information on the realistic farmer uptake of methods to enhance analyses of the potential for pollution mitigation. A study engaging farmers to understand current agricultural practices and their attitudes towards mitigation measures has formed part of the Demonstration Test Catchment (DTC) programme in England. Interviews with over seventy farmers were conducted during 2012 in three contrasting areas of the UK: the grassland dominated Eden catchment in the North West of England; the arable dominated Wensum catchment in East Anglia and the mixed farming of the Hampshire Avon catchment in southern England. Results from the farmer survey provide a baseline regarding current agricultural practices and give insight regarding attitudes to the adoption of other mitigation measures in the future. Opinions were obtained on eighty different measures taken from a recent guide to possible measures prepared for the UK government (Newell-Price et al., 2011). Analyses have been conducted examining how current use and attitudes towards future adoption of measures varies according to different characteristics of farm businesses. These findings will be of benefit to researchers, policy makers and farm advisers, particularly aiding decision making with respect to strategies for future implementation of programmes of measures. References. Anthony, S.G. et al., 2009. Quantitative assessment of scenarios for managing trade-off between the economic performance of agriculture and the environment and between different environmental media. Available at: http

A translation table for patient-centered comparative effectiveness research: guidance to improve the value of research for clinical and health policy decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Tunis, Sean R; Messner, Donna A; Mohr, Penny; Gliklich, Richard E; Dubois, Robert W

2012-05-01

This article provides background and context for a series of papers stemming from a collaborative effort by Outcome Sciences, Inc., the National Pharmaceutical Council and the Center for Medical Technology Policy to use a stakeholder-driven process to develop a decision tool to select appropriate methods for comparative effectiveness research. The perceived need and origins of the 'translation table' concept for method selection are described and the legislative history and role of the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute are reviewed. The article concludes by stressing the significance of this effort for future health services and clinical research, and the importance of consulting end-users--patients, providers, payers and policy-makers--in the process of defining research questions and approaches to them.

Woody biomass policies and location decisions of the woody bioenergy industry in the southern United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Zhimei; Hodges, Donald G.; Young, Timothy M.

2013-01-01

Woody biomass for bioenergy production has been included in relatively few renewable energy policies since the 1970s. Recently, however, several states have implemented a variety of new woody biomass policies to spur the establishment of new bioenergy industry. Establishing new woody biomass-based facilities in a specific state is affected by a number of factors such as the strength of these new policy incentives, resource availability, business tax climate, and the available labor force. This study employs a conditional logit model (CLM) to explore the effects of woody biomass policies on the siting decisions of new bioenergy projects relative to some of these other state attributes. The CLM results suggest that state government incentives are significantly related to state success in attracting new plants. The results have substantial implications regarding woody biomass policies and the creation of a new bioenergy industry. -- Highlights: •This study explores the effects of state attributes on the siting decisions of new woody bioenergy projects. •Results suggest that state woody biomass policies are significantly related to state success in attracting new plants. •Other factors related to the siting of woody bioenergy facilities include resource availability, taxes, and wage rate

Linking brain electrical signals elicited by current outcomes with future risk decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dandan eZhang

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The experience of current outcomes influences future decisions in various ways. The neural mechanism of this phenomenon may help to clarify the determinants of decision-making. In this study, thirty-nine young adults finished a risky gambling task by choosing between a high- and a low-risk option in each trial during electroencephalographic data collection. We found that risk-taking strategies significantly modulated mean amplitudes of the event-related potential (ERP component P3, particularly at the central scalp. The event-related spectral perturbation and the inter-trial coherence measurements of the independent component analysis (ICA data indicated that the stay vs. switch electrophysiological difference associated with subsequent decision-making was mainly due to fronto-central theta and left/right mu independent components. Event-related cross-coherence results suggested that the neural information of action monitoring and updating emerged in the fronto-central cortex and propagated to sensorimotor area for further behavior adjustment. Based on these findings of ERP and event-related oscillation (ERO measures, we proposed a neural model of the influence of current outcomes on future decisions.

Episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking: intersections between memory and decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Schacter, Daniel L; Benoit, Roland G; De Brigard, Felipe; Szpunar, Karl K

2015-01-01

This article considers two recent lines of research concerned with the construction of imagined or simulated events that can provide insight into the relationship between memory and decision making. One line of research concerns episodic future thinking, which involves simulating episodes that might occur in one's personal future, and the other concerns episodic counterfactual thinking, which involves simulating episodes that could have happened in one's personal past. We first review neuroimaging studies that have examined the neural underpinnings of episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking. We argue that these studies have revealed that the two forms of episodic simulation engage a common core network including medial parietal, prefrontal, and temporal regions that also supports episodic memory. We also note that neuroimaging studies have documented neural differences between episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking, including differences in hippocampal responses. We next consider behavioral studies that have delineated both similarities and differences between the two kinds of episodic simulation. The evidence indicates that episodic future and counterfactual thinking are characterized by similarly reduced levels of specific detail compared with episodic memory, but that the effects of repeatedly imagining a possible experience have sharply contrasting effects on the perceived plausibility of those events during episodic future thinking versus episodic counterfactual thinking. Finally, we conclude by discussing the functional consequences of future and counterfactual simulations for decisions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regional industrial policy and the new agenda for growth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gjerding, Allan Næs

2005-01-01

Even though the structural reform of the Danish administrative three-tier system in general implies a centralisation of the policy decision-making process, centralisation may not apply entirely to the field of industrial policy as the result of the implementation of the new national law on indust......Even though the structural reform of the Danish administrative three-tier system in general implies a centralisation of the policy decision-making process, centralisation may not apply entirely to the field of industrial policy as the result of the implementation of the new national law...... on industrial development. Describing the implications of the law in terms of the changes of the regional setting for industrial policy and the ensuing focus on a new agenda for growth, the paper devotes its attention to the region of North Jutland that has been designated as a test case for the organisational...... coalitions rather than centralising the decision mak-ing power. However, since the political bodies involved in industrial policy will become fewer, more powerful and more focussed on industrial policy, goal conflicts are likely to oc-cur in the future....

Decision Network for Blue Green Solutions to Influence Policy Impact Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Mijic, A.; Theodoropoulos, G.; El Hattab, M. H.; Brown, K.

2017-12-01

Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SuDS) deliver ecosystems services that can potentially yield multiple benefits to the urban environment. These benefits can be achieved through optimising SUDS' integration with the local environment and water resources, creating so-called Blue Green Solutions (BGS). The BGS paradigm, however, presents several challenges, in particular quantifying the benefits and creating the scientific evidence-base that can persuade high-level decision-makers and stakeholders to implement BGS at large scale. This work presents the development of the easily implemented and tailored-made approach that allows a robust assessment of the BGS co-benefits, and can influence the types of information that are included in policy impact assessments. The Analytic Network Process approach is used to synthesise the available evidence on the co-benefits of the BGS. The approach enables mapping the interactions between individual BGS selection criteria, and creates a platform to assess the synergetic benefits that arise from components interactions. By working with Government departments and other public and private sector stakeholders, this work has produced a simple decision criteria-based network that will enable the co-benefits and trade-offs of BGS to be quantified and integrated into UK policy appraisals.

Emotion expression, decision-making and well-being.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Erte

2008-01-01

This chapter discusses the role of emotion expression in decision-making. To understand connections between emotion and decision it is helpful first to differentiate between emotion experience and emotion expression. Understanding how emotion expression influences decision-making is important as a practical matter. However, in contrast to emotion experience, economic research has paid little attention to the significance of emotion expression in decision-making. I review recent studies on emotion expression, paying specific attention to possible connections between emotion expression, punishment, fair economic exchange, and well-being. In contrast to emotions, which are typically difficult to control, I suggest that opportunities for emotion expression can feasibly be manipulated through appropriately designed policies. I further suggest that this approach may have the ability to positively affect well-being and economic outcomes. VALUE OF THE CHAPTER: The chapter provides new perspectives on how policy-makers can benefit by understanding the effect of emotion expression in decision-making. The chapter also suggests future research to improve our understanding of emotion expression.

Mapping ecosystem services for policy support and decision making in the European Union

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maes, J.; Egoh, B.; Willemen, L.; Liquete, C.; Vihervaara, P.; Schägner, J.P.; Grizzetti, B.; Drakou, E.G.; Notte, La A.; Zulian, G.; Bouraoui, F.; Parcchini, M.L.; Braat, L.C.

2012-01-01

Mainstreaming ecosystem services into policy and decision making is dependent on the availability of spatially explicit information on the state and trends of ecosystems and their services. In particular, the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 addresses the need to account for ecosystem services

The Formation of New Monetary Policies: Decisions of Central Banks on the Great Recession

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Esther Castro

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The effect that the Great Recession had on monetary policies has led to the profound reorientation of central banks’ actions from 2007 to 2013. The purpose of this work is to analyze the monetary policies applied by the main central banks, mainly the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve System of USA and the Bank of Japan, in order to raise thoughts on the guidelines that central banks should follow in the future. In the first section the bases of monetary policy before the crisis are described; in the second we explain the change in the orientation of the role of central banks during the crisis; and finally, we synthesize the bases on which the economic debate is taking place on the orientation of future monetary policies. We conclude that, in so far as the inoperativeness of transmission mechanisms still persists, monetary policies will remain in a process of change.

Decision criteria under uncertainty and the climate problem

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bretteville, Camilla

1999-11-01

This working paper examines some of the decision criteria suggested by theories on decision making under uncertainty. This is done by applying the criteria to the problem of global warming. It is shown that even if there was a benevolent planner who is both supranational and supra generational and even if he had a well defined inter generational welfare function, there are still remaining problems. The question asked is: If there were a benevolent planner, would he know the best climate policy for the world today. The main discussion abstracts from all other complications and focuses on the lack of certainty regarding impacts of greenhouse gas emissions and the effectiveness of policy. A very simplified example of a game against nature is constructed. It has two possible policy choices. One can either try to prevent global warming, or one can choose to do nothing. The future state of the world is uncertain and the chosen policy might affect the outcome in each state. The framing of the example is such that one should expect a policy of action to be preferred rather than a no-action policy, however this is not always the case. It is shown that the preferred policy choice is very much dependent on the choice of decision criterion, the magnitude of costs and of the framing. 3 tabs., 23 refs

EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF POLICY OPTIONS ON AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES: AN ALTERNATIVE-FUTURES APPROACH

Science.gov (United States)

Alternative-futures analysis was used to analyze different scenarios of future growth patterns and attendant resource allocations on the agricultural system of Oregon's Willamette River Basin. A stakeholder group formulated three policy alternatives: a continuation of current tr...

Enhanced Situational Awareness and Decision Support for Operators of Future Distributed Power Network Architectures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zaher, Ammar S. A. E.; Catterson, V. M.; Syed, M. H.

2016-01-01

This paper describes scenarios proposed for a control room decision support system aimed at future power network operators. The purpose is to consider the requirements of the future control room from the perspective of the operator under the conditions of a significant frequency excursion incident....... The control room visualisation and decision support functionality for aiding the operator in restoring the frequency to its target value will be considered. The analysis takes place within the Web-ofCells framework, adopted to deal with power system control through a web of subsystems, called cells, which...

Conclusions, Reflections, and Prospects for Future Research, Policy, and Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Clark-Kazak, Christina

2012-01-01

This concluding chapter draws together some of the key themes from the contributions and proposes some recommended areas for future research, policy, and programming. It highlights the artificiality of categorization processes related to both migration and childhood that independent child migrants encounter, and problematizes the…

Local scale decision support systems - actual situation and trends for the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Govaerts, P.

1993-01-01

Based on the communications presented in the session on local scale decision support systems, some common trends for those models have been identified. During the last decade the evolutionary change of those models is related with the better insight in decisions to be taken with respect to interventions, the acceptance of large uncertainties, the perceived importance of social and economic factors and shift of the identity of the user. A more revolutionary change is predicted for the near future, putting most emphasis on the predictive mode, extending the integration of monitoring data in the decision support system, and the use of pre-established scenarios. The local scale decision support system will become the key module of the off-site emergency control room. (author)

Impacts of imports, government policy and technology on future natural gas supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allison, E.

2009-01-01

This presentation discussed the impacts of imports, government policy and technology on future natural gas supply. Specifically, it discussed projections of natural gas supply and demand; the potential impact of imports on United States natural gas supply; the potential impacts of government policy on natural gas supply and demand; and the impact of technological innovations on natural gas supply such as coalbed methane and methane hydrate. Specific government policies that were examined included the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009; the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009; and the Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act of 2009. It was concluded that the United States demand for natural gas will expand and that the impact of pending clean energy legislation is unclear. In addition, each potential future resource will face constraints and new resources may come on line in the next 20 years. figs.

The Effect of Central Bank Policy Decisions on Stock Market Returns in Chile

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrés A. Acuña

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the stock-market response to monetary policy decisions made by the Central Bank of Chile.  We use a methodology designed for the study of low frequency events and monthly data from September 2001 to December 2013 to estimate the effect of anticipated and unanticipated changes in the Chilean monetary policy interest rate on stock returns.  In contrast to the research findings in the literature for the U.S., we find no evidence that monetary surprises affect Chilean stock returns.

Decision Making Policies and Worker Influence in Employee Owned Firms.

Science.gov (United States)

Hammer, Tove Helland

A study of a small employee-owned furniture company indicated that the three occupational groups agreed that management should have more influence in decisions affecting the future of the organization. On the other hand, issues which would directly affect employee welfare are seen as areas where control should be fairly evenly divided, with…

[Influenza A from the rational choice theory: proposals for decision making in prevention policies].

Science.gov (United States)

Peña, Francisco Garrido; Fernández, Luís Andrés López; García, Eugenia Gil

2009-01-01

This article is a reflection on the social uncertainty caused by Influenza A and on the consequences that it can have on decision making in health promotion policies. We use concepts and metaphors of the Rational Choice Theory, among them, the "in gratitude effect" or the "distrust effect", as we analyse how these can become obstacles for the efficiency of prevention policies. Then, we focus on the information asymmetry of the principal-agent relationship, and we propose measures to diminish the "moral risk" that they cause. We finish by advancing some proposals for designing lines and strategies of action in health promotion policies.

Three essays on decision-making in energy policy

Science.gov (United States)

Wendling, Zachary Ann

This dissertation examines three issues surrounding decision-making in energy policy. Over the past decade, technological advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have allowed the economical extraction of natural gas and petroleum from shale basins. Thus far, natural gas has been produced from shale at a commercial scale only in certain American States and Canadian Provinces, though potential shale plays exist elsewhere in North America and the world. Whether, how, and to what extent SGD diffuses to new shale basins and jurisdictions will depend on several questions about energy policy. The first chapter examines the potential for SGD in the European Union. Among EU institutions, the European Parliament has been the strongest proponent for regulation of SGD, preferring a balance between environmental protection and opportunities for economic development, energy security, and climate mitigation. Analysis of roll call voting on SGD in the Seventh European Parliament shows that ideological preferences are the primary explanation of voting behavior, followed by national interests in decarbonization. Prospects for further regulatory action are discussed. ? The second chapter takes a closer look at the potential of shale gas to facilitate decarbonization in the electricity sector. Proponents of SGD have claimed that high carbon fossil fuels can be immediately phased out and replaced in the short term by power plants that burn cheap, abundant natural gas, which emits half the greenhouse gasses over a well-to-wire life cycle. A value of information analysis examines the conditions under which this may be so and quantifies how valuable it would be to have perfect information about uncertain parameters in a cost function characterizing the global electricity sector. The third chapter is describes a new tool of policy analysis, the Indiana Scalable Energy-Economy Model (IN-SEEM). State and local governments have played an increasing role in energy and climate

Research on the margin of futures markets and the policy spillover effect

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Difang Wan; Yang Yang; Dong Fang; Guang Yang

2011-01-01

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the change of margin in Chinese futures markets has policy spillover effects.Design/methodology/approach-The paper constructs a model based on Harzmark and on Chng,taking Chinese futures markets status quo as a single species and restrictions on foreign investment into consideration,introduces the assumptions of spillover effect of speculators,then obtains investor's demand function.Subsequently,the effects of Shanghai Futures Exchange's 11 instances of margin changing are analyzed.Findings-The paper finds that in the Chinese futures market,margin changing has impact on the open interest (OI) and the speculator spillover effect is validated.Research limitations/implications-The irrational behavior of investors in markets is not taken into account in the model and data about spillover speculators were not directly available.Originality/value-The paper usefully analyzes the effects of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's 11 instances of margin changing from 2000 to 2007 and examines the actual effects of margin-changing policy,in the views of OI,trading volume and the externality,the results showing that margin changing has impact on investor structure and validates the existence of the assumed speculator spillover effect.

Policy making and energy infrastructure change: A Nigerian case study of energy governance in the electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edomah, Norbert; Foulds, Chris; Jones, Aled

2017-01-01

This paper focusses on investigating the underlying mechanisms and influences of the policy decision making process and how it affects and impacts the governance of the Nigerian energy industry, and energy infrastructure provisions. In-depth semi-structured interviews were used; all interviewees had been involved, directly or indirectly, in energy infrastructure policy decisions in Nigeria. Five key themes subsequently emerged as salient intra-country induced influences that were affecting the governance and performance of the Nigerian energy sector: (1) competencies – i.e. practical knowledge of energy policy making; (2) expectations – i.e. past, present, and forecasted future expectations from the energy industry; (3) legislation – i.e. institutionalized (and unwritten) rules/procedures; (4) future visions – i.e. future vision of the energy industry/energy market; (5) recruiting experts – i.e. recruiting new energy and public policy makers. In addition, three major inter-country induced influences were also identified: (1) the changing dynamics of international and foreign aid; (2) the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals; and (3) the Paris Agreements on Climate Change. The paper concludes by highlighting the policy implications of these influences, and the consequences for policy makers in the governance of the energy industry in ensuring a secured energy future. - Highlights: • Unclear energy policies pose a business risk to current and future investors. • Our energy future is threatened by unsystematic recruitment into the policy space. • Some energy governance challenges reflect incompetence in energy legislation. • Nigerian energy transition was shaped by historical policy dynamics and structures.

Big Data: transforming drug development and health policy decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Alemayehu, Demissie; Berger, Marc L

The explosion of data sources, accompanied by the evolution of technology and analytical techniques, has created considerable challenges and opportunities for drug development and healthcare resource utilization. We present a systematic overview these phenomena, and suggest measures to be taken for effective integration of the new developments in the traditional medical research paradigm and health policy decision making. Special attention is paid to pertinent issues in emerging areas, including rare disease drug development, personalized medicine, Comparative Effectiveness Research, and privacy and confidentiality concerns.

Policies to improve end-of-life decisions in Flemish hospitals: communication, training of health care providers and use of quality assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Noortgate Nele

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevalence and implementation of institutional end-of-life policies has been comprehensively studied in Flanders, Belgium, a country where euthanasia was legalised in 2002. Developing end-of-life policies in hospitals is a first step towards improving the quality of medical decision-making at the end-of-life. Implementation of policies through quality assessments, communication and the training and education of health care providers is equally important in improving actual end-of-life practice. The aim of the present study is to report on the existence and nature of end-of-life policy implementation activities in Flemish acute hospitals. Methods A cross-sectional mail survey was sent to all acute hospitals (67 main campuses in Flanders (Belgium. The questionnaire asked about hospital characteristics, the prevalence of policies on five types of end-of-life decisions: euthanasia, palliative sedation, alleviation of symptoms with possible life-shortening effect, do-not-resuscitate decision, and withdrawing or withholding of treatment, the internal and external communication of these policies, training and education on aspects of end-of-life care, and quality assessments of end-of-life care on patient and family level. Results The response rate was 55%. Results show that in 2007 written policies on most types of end-of-life decisions were widespread in acute hospitals (euthanasia: 97%, do-not-resuscitate decisions: 98%, palliative sedation: 79%. While standard communication of these policies to health care providers was between 71% and 91%, it was much lower to patients and/or family (between 17% and 50%. More than 60% of institutions trained and educated their caregivers in different aspects on end-of-life care. Assessment of the quality of these different aspects at patient and family level occurred in 25% to 61% of these hospitals. Conclusions Most Flemish acute hospitals have developed a policy on end-of-life practices

Policies to improve end-of-life decisions in Flemish hospitals: communication, training of health care providers and use of quality assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Haene, Ina; Vander Stichele, Robert H; Pasman, H Roeline W; Noortgate, Nele Van den; Bilsen, Johan; Mortier, Freddy; Deliens, Luc

2009-12-30

The prevalence and implementation of institutional end-of-life policies has been comprehensively studied in Flanders, Belgium, a country where euthanasia was legalised in 2002. Developing end-of-life policies in hospitals is a first step towards improving the quality of medical decision-making at the end-of-life. Implementation of policies through quality assessments, communication and the training and education of health care providers is equally important in improving actual end-of-life practice. The aim of the present study is to report on the existence and nature of end-of-life policy implementation activities in Flemish acute hospitals. A cross-sectional mail survey was sent to all acute hospitals (67 main campuses) in Flanders (Belgium). The questionnaire asked about hospital characteristics, the prevalence of policies on five types of end-of-life decisions: euthanasia, palliative sedation, alleviation of symptoms with possible life-shortening effect, do-not-resuscitate decision, and withdrawing or withholding of treatment, the internal and external communication of these policies, training and education on aspects of end-of-life care, and quality assessments of end-of-life care on patient and family level. The response rate was 55%. Results show that in 2007 written policies on most types of end-of-life decisions were widespread in acute hospitals (euthanasia: 97%, do-not-resuscitate decisions: 98%, palliative sedation: 79%). While standard communication of these policies to health care providers was between 71% and 91%, it was much lower to patients and/or family (between 17% and 50%). More than 60% of institutions trained and educated their caregivers in different aspects on end-of-life care. Assessment of the quality of these different aspects at patient and family level occurred in 25% to 61% of these hospitals. Most Flemish acute hospitals have developed a policy on end-of-life practices. However, communication, training and the education of health care

Decision support in vaccination policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Piso, B; Wild, C

2009-10-09

Looking across boarders reveals that the national immunization programs of various countries differ in their vaccination schedules and decisions regarding the implementation and funding of new vaccines. The aim of this review is to identify decision aids and crucial criteria for a rational decision-making process on vaccine introduction and to develop a theoretical framework for decision-making based on available literature. Systematic literature search supplemented by hand-search. We identified five published decision aids for vaccine introduction and program planning in industrialized countries. Their comparison revealed an overall similarity with some differences in the approach as well as criteria. Burden of disease and vaccine characteristics play a key role in all decision aids, but authors vary in their views on the significance of cost-effectiveness analyses. Other relevant factors that should be considered before vaccine introduction are discussed to highly differing extents. These factors include the immunization program itself as well as its conformity with other programs, its feasibility, acceptability, and equity, as well as ethical, legal and political considerations. Assuming that the most comprehensive framework possible will not provide a feasible tool for decision-makers, we suggest a stepwise procedure. Though even the best rational approach and most comprehensive evaluation is limited by remaining uncertainties, frameworks provide at least a structured approach to evaluate the various aspects of vaccine implementation decision-making. This process is essential in making consistently sound decisions and will facilitate the public's confidence in the decision and its realization.

Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Wholesale Electricity Prices, and on Electric-Sector Decision Making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seel, Joachim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mills, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wiser, Ryan H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Deb, Sidart [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States); Asokkumar, Aarthi [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States); Hassanzadeh, Mohammad [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States); Aarabali, Amirsaman [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States)

2018-05-11

Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels will still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE future. We qualitatively describe how various decisions may change with higher shares of VRE and outline an analytical framework for quantitatively evaluating the impacts of VRE on long-lasting decisions. We then present results from detailed electricity market simulations with capacity expansion and unit commitment models for multiple regions of the U.S. for low and high VRE futures. We find a general decrease in average annual hourly wholesale energy prices with more VRE penetration, increased price volatility and frequency of very low-priced hours, and changing diurnal price patterns. Ancillary service prices rise substantially and peak net-load hours with high capacity value are shifted increasingly into the evening, particularly for high solar futures. While in this report we only highlight qualitatively the possible impact of these altered price patterns on other demand- and supply-side electric sector decisions, the core set of electricity market prices derived here provides a foundation for later planned quantitative evaluations of these decisions in low and high VRE futures.

Decision makers, scientists and the public as stakeholders: the connection between traffic intervention policy and air quality in a local context.

Science.gov (United States)

Weiand, L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Schmitz, S.; Niehoff, N.

2017-12-01

Urban mobility is a key issue to make cities more inclusive, safer, and more environmentally friendly. To ensure a sustainable future, local policy should, among other actions, aim to improve access to sustainable transport systems and enhance mobility opportunities, while at the same time addressing critical environmental and health targets. In order to assess whether these objectives are met, measures should be informed and evaluated from a social and environmental perspective. Citizens' opinions and the acceptance of environmental policies are crucial to successful implementation of urban mobility measures. The complexity of urban air quality issues require transparent decision-making processes that are grounded in evidence-based research and embrace local knowledge. From this basis, our research group and the city council collaborated to assess a new policy action intended to address environmental and health targets. This talk will present the results from the assessment of this new policy, that was implemented in large part to alleviate air quality exceedances, from the perspective of public acceptability of the measure and the approach taken by the city council to implement the measure. Parallel to assessing the effect of this policy on the recorded levels of air pollution and traffic counts, we conducted a social survey to examine public opinions of this measure, as well as the link between air quality awareness and mobility decisions. 4661 responses were collected over a one month period. Survey participants were those most affected by the traffic measure, including commuters and local residents. The results show that there is an overall low acceptance rate of the measure (8%) as well as low concern for air quality (2,90 - where 1 = not concerned and 6 = very concerned). We also found that there is a negative relationship between air quality rating and air quality concern. A similar approach was taken to understand climate change concern, which will be

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV disease – new data needed to guide future policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Louis Bont

2015-12-01

Full Text Available RSV is the main cause of childhood lower respiratory infections, globally, an important cause of childhood wheeze and may be responsible for a substantial burden of disease in the very elderly and in adults with chronic medical problems, such as COPD. It is thus responsible for substantial healthcare and social costs. There are currently many companies and academic groups developing and testing candidate vaccines and there is an expectation that these will lead to effective and safe vaccines which will be available to health systems globally in the short- medium term. Despite this, there is an incomplete understanding of RSV disease, especially in adult groups, and large scale data are only available from a few countries and settings leading to low levels of awareness of the importance of this pathogen. We discuss the need for widespread national sentinel systems of RSV surveillance and some means by which this could be achieved. These data will be needed by national policy makers and immunisation advisory groups to guide future priority setting and decision making.

Re-examination of sea lamprey control policies for the St. Marys River: Completion of an adaptive management cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Michael L.; Brenden, Travis O.; Irwin, Brian J.

2015-01-01

The St. Marys River (SMR) historically has been a major producer of sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) in the Laurentian Great Lakes. In the early 2000s, a decision analysis (DA) project was conducted to evaluate sea lamprey control policies for the SMR; this project suggested that an integrated policy of trapping, sterile male releases, and Bayluscide treatment was the most cost-effective policy. Further, it concluded that formal assessment of larval sea lamprey abundance and distribution in the SMR would be valuable for future evaluation of control strategies. We updated this earlier analysis, adding information from annual larval assessments conducted since 1999 and evaluating additional control policies. Bayluscide treatments continued to be critical for sea lamprey control, but high recruitment compensation minimized the effectiveness of trapping and sterile male release under current feasible ranges. Because Bayluscide control is costly, development of strategies to enhance trapping success remains a priority. This study illustrates benefits of an adaptive management cycle, wherein models inform decisions, are updated based on learning achieved from those decisions, and ultimately inform future decisions.

Interaction of Technology Adoption Constraints and Multi-level Policy Coherence at the Energy-Food Nexus

Science.gov (United States)

Gerst, M.; Cox, M. E.; Laser, M.; Locke, K. A.; Kapuscinski, A. R.

2017-12-01

Policy- and decision-making at the food-energy-water (FEW) nexus entails additional complexities due to the multi-objective nature of FEW socio-technical systems: policies and decisions meant to improve one facet of the nexus might be less beneficial, or even detrimental, to achieving goals for other facets. In addition, implementing policies and decisions may be more difficult due to increasing coordination required among stakeholders across each nexus facet. We highlight these issues in an economic, material/energy flow, and institutional assessment of dairy farms that produce power from anaerobic digestion of cow manure. This socio-technical system is an example of an integrated food-energy system (IFES), which co-produces food and energy. In the case of dairy farms, water is also a significant consideration because cow manure, if improperly managed, can negatively impact water bodies. Our assessment asks the questions (i) of whether or not adopting an IFES improves farm resilience under potential economic and environment futures and (ii) how decisions, policies, and information can best be tailored to the FEW nexus. Our study consists of semi-structured interviews of 60 farms split between the US states of New York and Vermont, both of which have enacted policies to encourage digester adoption. Each interview asks farmers about their material and energy flows, costs, and decision-making process for adopting (or not) an anaerobic digester. In addition, farmers are asked questions about challenges and barriers they might have faced and future drivers of change. Preliminary results highlight important interactions between policy and decision-making. Foremost, an analysis of policy cohesion shows that environmental objectives cross sectors and governance levels, as state-level greenhouse gas mitigation policies interact with federal-level nutrient management policies. This form of potential policy incoherence may introduce additional problems that hinder digester

Energy policy and public administration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daneke, G.A.; Lagassa, G.K. (eds.)

1980-01-01

At the 1979 conference of the American Society for Public Administration, each editor chaired a separate panel on the administrative dimensions of energy policy. Both panels revealed the importance of involvement in energy decision making by all levels of government. It turns out that energy policy makers are confronted with unrealistic, and therefore paralyzing, choices between two rather extreme sets of energy stategies and futures: large-scale, centralized technologies vs. small-scale, decentralized, appropriate technologies. The nineteen chapters selected and compiled here represent the basic policy issues that must be confronted along whichever path that is chosen. A separate abstract was prepared for each chapter.

Public values for energy futures: Framing, indeterminacy and policy making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Butler, C.; Demski, C.; Parkhill, K.; Pidgeon, N.; Spence, A.

2015-01-01

In the UK there are strong policy imperatives to transition toward low carbon energy systems but how and in what ways such transitional processes might be realised remains highly uncertain. One key area of uncertainty pertains to public attitudes and acceptability. Though there is wide-ranging research relevant to public acceptability, very little work has unpacked the multiple questions concerning how policy-makers can grapple with and mitigate related uncertainties in efforts to enact energy systems change. In this paper, public acceptability is identified as an indeterminate form of uncertainty that presents particular challenges for policy making. We build on our existing research into public values for energy system change to explore how the outcomes of the project can be applied in thinking through the uncertainties associated with public acceptability. Notably, we illustrate how the public values identified through our research bring into view alternative and quite different problem and solution framings to those currently evident within UK policy. We argue that engagement with a wide range of different framings can offer a basis for better understanding and anticipating public responses to energy system change, ultimately aiding in managing the complex set of uncertainties associated with public acceptability. - Highlights: • We argue that public acceptability represents an indeterminate form of uncertainty. • This means alternative approaches to decision-making are required. • We introduce a public value set for energy system change. • We use this as a basis for interrogating current UK policy approaches to transitions. • Incorporating public values in policy can help tackle uncertainty about acceptability.

Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Bernknopf, R.L.

2005-01-01

While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the

A literature review of the market effects of federal biofuel policy and recommendations for future policy

Science.gov (United States)

Ayers, Alex Elgin

The United States has had a federal biofuels policy since the 1970s. The purpose of this policy was to help the development of a biofuel industry during a time of high fuel prices in order to provide a domestic alternative to expensive foreign oil. Later the policy was changed to help lower the environmental impact caused by conventional fuels. Since that time the industry has grown and currently produces around 15 billion gallons of biofuels every year. The current federal biofuel policy is largely based on one program, the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which mandates the production and blending of several different classes of biofuels and provides a form of subsidy to the biofuel industry. This paper examines the market effects of the federal biofuel policy and provides recommendations for improving the policy to counteract any negative effects. Federal biofuel policy has many far-reaching market effects. Some are easily calculable through expenditures and lost revenues, while others are harder to quantify because their full effects are not yet known. By evaluating these market effects, this paper will provide ample evidence that the federal biofuels policy needs to change, and will show what effects these changes could induce. The biofuels industry largely owes its existence to government policies, however as the research shows the industry can now stand on its own. This paper will examine what will happen if the federal policy is eliminated and what the future of the biofuels industry could hold. Based on these examinations, it is unlikely that the industry needs further government support and policies should be adjusted in light of this.

Policy modeling for industrial energy use

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Worrell, Ernst; Park, Hi-Chun; Lee, Sang-Gon; Jung, Yonghun; Kato, Hiroyuki; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Nyboer, John; Jaccard, Mark; Nordqvist, Joakim; Boyd, Christopher; Klee, Howard; Anglani, Norma; Biermans, Gijs

2003-03-01

The international workshop on Policy Modeling for Industrial Energy Use was jointly organized by EETA (Professional Network for Engineering Economic Technology Analysis) and INEDIS (International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector). The workshop has helped to layout the needs and challenges to include policy more explicitly in energy-efficiency modeling. The current state-of-the-art models have a proven track record in forecasting future trends under conditions similar to those faced in the recent past. However, the future of energy policy in a climate-restrained world is likely to demand different and additional services to be provided by energy modelers. In this workshop some of the international models used to make energy consumption forecasts have been discussed as well as innovations to enable the modeling of policy scenarios. This was followed by the discussion of future challenges, new insights in the data needed to determine the inputs into energy model s, and methods to incorporate decision making and policy in the models. Based on the discussion the workshop participants came to the following conclusions and recommendations: Current energy models are already complex, and it is already difficult to collect the model inputs. Hence, new approaches should be transparent and not lead to extremely complex models that try to ''do everything''. The model structure will be determined by the questions that need to be answered. A good understanding of the decision making framework of policy makers and clear communication on the needs are essential to make any future energy modeling effort successful. There is a need to better understand the effects of policy on future energy use, emissions and the economy. To allow the inclusion of policy instruments in models, evaluation of programs and instruments is essential, and need to be included in the policy instrument design. Increased efforts are needed to better understand the

Optimal Replacement and Management Policies for Beef Cows

OpenAIRE

W. Marshall Frasier; George H. Pfeiffer

1994-01-01

Beef cow replacement studies have not reflected the interaction between herd management and the culling decision. We demonstrate techniques for modeling optimal beef cow replacement intervals and discrete management policies by incorporating the dynamic effects of management on future productivity when biological response is uncertain. Markovian decision analysis is used to identify optimal beef cow management on a ranch typical of the Sandhills region of Nebraska. Issues of breeding season l...

Design of Adaptive Policy Pathways under Deep Uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Babovic, Vladan

2013-04-01

The design of large-scale engineering and infrastructural systems today is growing in complexity. Designers need to consider sociotechnical uncertainties, intricacies, and processes in the long- term strategic deployment and operations of these systems. In this context, water and spatial management is increasingly challenged not only by climate-associated changes such as sea level rise and increased spatio-temporal variability of precipitation, but also by pressures due to population growth and particularly accelerating rate of urbanisation. Furthermore, high investment costs and long term-nature of water-related infrastructure projects requires long-term planning perspective, sometimes extending over many decades. Adaptation to such changes is not only determined by what is known or anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned as the future unfolds, as well as by policy responses to social and water events. As a result, a pathway emerges. Instead of responding to 'surprises' and making decisions on ad hoc basis, exploring adaptation pathways into the future provide indispensable support in water management decision-making. In this contribution, a structured approach for designing a dynamic adaptive policy based on the concepts of adaptive policy making and adaptation pathways is introduced. Such an approach provides flexibility which allows change over time in response to how the future unfolds, what is learned about the system, and changes in societal preferences. The introduced flexibility provides means for dealing with complexities of adaptation under deep uncertainties. It enables engineering systems to change in the face of uncertainty to reduce impacts from downside scenarios while capitalizing on upside opportunities. This contribution presents comprehensive framework for development and deployment of adaptive policy pathway framework, and demonstrates its performance under deep uncertainties on a case study related to urban

Resolving future fire management conflicts using multicriteria decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Driscoll, Don A; Bode, Michael; Bradstock, Ross A; Keith, David A; Penman, Trent D; Price, Owen F

2016-02-01

Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire commonly involve burning native vegetation. However, planned burning can conflict with other societal objectives such as human health and biodiversity conservation. These conflicts are likely to intensify as fire regimes change under future climates and as growing human populations encroach farther into fire-prone ecosystems. Decisions about managing fire risks are therefore complex and warrant more sophisticated approaches than are typically used. We applied a multicriteria decision making approach (MCDA) with the potential to improve fire management outcomes to the case of a highly populated, biodiverse, and flammable wildland-urban interface. We considered the effects of 22 planned burning options on 8 objectives: house protection, maximizing water quality, minimizing carbon emissions and impacts on human health, and minimizing declines of 5 distinct species types. The MCDA identified a small number of management options (burning forest adjacent to houses) that performed well for most objectives, but not for one species type (arboreal mammal) or for water quality. Although MCDA made the conflict between objectives explicit, resolution of the problem depended on the weighting assigned to each objective. Additive weighting of criteria traded off the arboreal mammal and water quality objectives for other objectives. Multiplicative weighting identified scenarios that avoided poor outcomes for any objective, which is important for avoiding potentially irreversible biodiversity losses. To distinguish reliably among management options, future work should focus on reducing uncertainty in outcomes across a range of objectives. Considering management actions that have more predictable outcomes than landscape fuel management will be important. We found that, where data were adequate, an MCDA can support decision making in the complex and often conflicted area of fire management. © 2015

Development of the Supported Decision Making Inventory System.

Science.gov (United States)

Shogren, Karrie A; Wehmeyer, Michael L; Uyanik, Hatice; Heidrich, Megan

2017-12-01

Supported decision making has received increased attention as an alternative to guardianship and a means to enable people with intellectual and developmental disabilities to exercise their right to legal capacity. Assessments are needed that can used by people with disabilities and their systems of supports to identify and plan for needed supports to enable decision making. This article describes the steps taken to develop such an assessment tool, the Supported Decision Making Inventory System (SDMIS), and initial feedback received from self-advocates with intellectual disability. The three sections of the SDMIS (Supported Decision Making Personal Factors Inventory, Supported Decision Making Environmental Demands Inventory, and Decision Making Autonomy Inventory) are described and implications for future research, policy, and practice are discussed.

Behavioral decisions and policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dalton, P.S.; Ghosal, S.

2011-01-01

We study the public policy implications of a model in which agents do not fully internalize all the conscequences of their actions. Such a model unifies seemingly disconected models with behavioral agents. We evaluate the scope of paternalistic and libertarian-parternalistic policies in light of our

Behavioral Decisions and Policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dalton, P.S.; Ghosal, S.

2010-01-01

We study the public policy implications of a model in which agents do not fully internalize all the conscequences of their actions. Such a model uni es seemingly disconected models with behavioral agents. We evaluate the scope of paternalistic and libertarian-parternalistic policies in the light of

Emerging Adulthood among Palestinian Minority in Israel: The Relation between Perceived Career Barriers, Future Orientation and Career Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Mahajna, Sami

2017-01-01

This study examines the relation between perceived career barriers, future orientation and career decisions among young Palestinian-Israeli youth. The study employs a theoretical model that links perceived career barriers and career decisions via variables of future orientation. Three hundred eighty-eight young Palestinian-Israeli women (73.20%)…

Financing Postsecondary Education: Policy Development and Decision Making. A Series of Conferences. Conference Handbook.

Science.gov (United States)

Education Commission of the States, Denver, CO.

This handbook attempts to improve policy development and decision making relative to financing postsecondary education. Sections cover: (1) descriptions and comparisons of selected reports relative to recommendations for postsecondary financing; (2) position statements and/or comments on postsecondary financing from certain cooperative sponsoring…

Optimal Repair And Replacement Policy For A System With Multiple Components

Science.gov (United States)

2016-06-17

increases. A future research direction is to develop efficient heuristic methods that can produce near-optimal policy with much less computational...decision variables represent the long-run fraction of time for each state- action pair. The objective function is the linear combination of long-run...exists an optimal policy. To find this policy we solve the linear program. The solution shows that for each state only one state-action pair, represented

Stakeholder engagement in policy development: challenges and opportunities for human genomics

OpenAIRE

Lemke, Amy A.; Harris-Wai, Julie N.

2015-01-01

Along with rapid advances in human genomics, policies governing genomic data and clinical technologies have proliferated. Stakeholder engagement is widely lauded as an important methodology for improving clinical, scientific, and public health policy decision making. The purpose of this paper is to examine how stakeholder engagement is used to develop policies in genomics research and public health areas, as well as to identify future priorities for conducting evidence-based stakeholder engag...

Embedding health policy and systems research into decision-making processes in low- and middle-income countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Koon, Adam D; Rao, Krishna D; Tran, Nhan T; Ghaffar, Abdul

2013-08-08

Attention is increasingly directed to bridging the gap between the production of knowledge and its use for health decision-making in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). An important and underdeveloped area of health policy and systems research (HPSR) is the organization of this process. Drawing from an interdisciplinary conception of embeddedness, a literature review was conducted to identify examples of embedded HPSR used to inform decision-making in LMICs. The results of the literature review were organized according to the World Health Organization's Building Blocks Framework. Next, a conceptual model was created to illustrate the arrangement of organizations that produce embedded HPSR and the characteristics that facilitate its uptake into the arena of decision-making. We found that multiple forces converge to create context-specific pathways through which evidence enters into decision-making. Depending on the decision under consideration, the literature indicates that decision-makers may call upon an intricate combination of actors for sourcing HPSR. While proximity to decision-making does have advantages, it is not the position of the organization within the network, but rather the qualities the organization possesses, that enable it to be embedded. Our findings suggest that four qualities influence embeddedness: reputation, capacity, quality of connections to decision-makers, and quantity of connections to decision-makers and others. In addition to this, the policy environment (e.g. the presence of legislation governing the use of HPSR, presence of strong civil society, etc.) strongly influences uptake. Through this conceptual model, we can understand which conditions are likely to enhance uptake of HPSR in LMIC health systems. This raises several important considerations for decision-makers and researchers about the arrangement and interaction of evidence-generating organizations in health systems.

Building energy retrofit index for policy making and decision support at regional and national scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khayatian, Fazel; Sarto, Luca; Dall'O', Giuliano

2017-01-01

Highlights: •Machine learning is used for pre-processing, fine-tuning and post-processing data. •A new indicator is introduced to support building energy retrofit policies. •The presented indicator is evaluated by a case study of 4767 buildings. •Current energy indicators can misrepresent the building energy retrofit potential. -- Abstract: The vast data collected since the enforcement of building energy labelling in Italy has provided valuable information that is useful for planning the future of building energy efficiency. However, the indicators provided through energy certificates are not suitable to support decisions, which target building energy retrofit in a regional scale. Considering the bias of the energy performance index toward a building’s shape, decisions based on this index will favor buildings with a specific geometric characteristics. This study tends to overcome this issue by introducing a new indicator, tailored to rank buildings based on retrofitable characteristics. The proposed framework is validated by a case study, in which a large dataset of office buildings are assigned with the new index. Results indicate that the proposed indicator succeeds to extract a single index, which is representative of all building characteristics subject to energy retrofit. A new labeling procedure is also compared with the conventional classification of buildings. It is observed that the proposed labels properly partitions the dataset, according to buildings’ potential to undergo energy retrofit.

Decision aiding in public policy generation and implementation: a multicriteria approach to evaluate territorial resilience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Franca Norese

2016-12-01

Full Text Available A decision aid process should be the result of an interaction between analysts, decision makers and stakeholders. Decision aiding is sometimes required when the problem situation is new and a formal decision system does not exist. Its role becomes that of facilitating the Intelligence phase of a decision process. In other situations, a criticism of certain policy making processes and their use of data, which may be available in institutional databases or are required as indicators for the decision process, motivates an intervention oriented towards structure knowledge and improvements of these processes. A preliminary study, which includes modelling and application of multi-criteria methods, can clarify a complex and new situation, propose a consistent approach for the later phases of a decision process or propose a different and more effective use of the data. A case study is proposed here to describe this methodological approach in relation to the disaster resilience of municipalities near the mbrone River, in Tuscany (Italy.

Women as decision and policy makers. Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

1995-09-01

The focus of this news brief is on the Community-based Sustainable Family Planning/Maternal and Child Health (FP/MCH) Project promoted in Bangladesh, Laos, Nepal, and the Philippines. The project emphasizes women's involvement as policy makers and evaluators. The aim is to involve women at all project levels as part of an effort to correct gender imbalances. Programs are being directed toward sustainability. Women are placed in positions at each level of the tiered system of steering committees, which range from local village committees to central committees. Men may still retain the top positions, but women are given decision making power at the highest levels of policy and program development and implementation. The Asia region is challenged by quality of care issues related to reproductive health services. Program expansion is proceeding into rural areas with outreach services and fee charging. Projects are community-based, which means mobilization of community people. The community approach is suitable to an Asian culture that does not adhere to strict rules of privacy. Women's groups are eager to discuss sensitive issues such as contraception and to offer personal experiences and solutions to problems. Mass meetings and individual counseling sessions are available. IEC materials are available to the Asian FP/MCH program from JOICFP. Some of these materials promote the concept of the Asian community spirit as a building block of development. The Asian approach is an alternative to Western models and may be valid for other regions.

Advancing the Field Elder Abuse: Future Directions and Policy Implications

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, XinQi

2012-01-01

Elder abuse, sometime called elder mistreatment or elder maltreatment, includes psychological, physical, and sexual abuse, neglect (caregiver neglect and self-neglect), and financial exploitation. Evidence suggests that 1 out of 10 older adult experiences some form of elder abuse, and only 1 of out 25 cases are actually reported to social services agencies. At the same time, elder abuse is associated with significant morbidity and premature mortality. Despite these findings, there is a great paucity in research, practice, and policy dealing with the pervasive issues of elder abuse. Through my experiences as a American Political Sciences Association Congressional Policy Fellow/Health and Aging Policy Fellow working with Administration on Community Living (ACL) (Previously known at Administration on Aging (AoA)) for the last two years, I will describe the major functions of the ACL; and highlight on two major pieces of federal legislation: The Older Americans Act (OAA) and the Elder Justice Act (EJA). Moreover, I will highlight major research gaps and future policy relevant research directions for the field of elder abuse. PMID:23110488

Visions of Alternative (Unpredictable Futures and Their Use in Policy Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Costanza

2000-07-01

Full Text Available The most critical task facing humanity today is the creation of a shared vision of a sustainable and desirable society, one that can provide permanent prosperity within the biophysical constraints of the real world in a way that is fair and equitable to all of humanity, to other species, and to future generations. Recent work with businesses and communities indicates that creating a shared vision is the most effective engine for change in the desired direction, yet most effort in "futures modeling" has focused on extrapolating past trends rather than envisioning alternative futures. Science and economics as applied to policy are in conflict more often over alternative visions of the world than purely "scientific" disagreements. Likewise, governance has gotten bogged down in mediating short term conflicts between special interests rather than its more basic role of creating broadly shared visions that can guide dispute resolution. This paper addresses the question of what policies are most appropriate for society now, given alternative visions of the future and the enormous uncertainty about the reality of the assumptions underlying these visions. Four specific visions are laid out as being representative of the major alternatives. For each vision the benefits of achieving the vision, the assumptions that would have to be true in order for it to be achieved, and the implications of it being attempted but not achieved are explored. It is argued that dealing with uncertainty about the nature of the world, its carrying capacity for humans, the impacts of climate change, and other aspects of its future can best be done at this level of future visions and assumptions, not at more detailed levels (like the parameter uncertainty in models. Application of this vision/uncertainty analysis can help us both to design the future society we want and to maximize the chances of our getting there safely.

Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blyth, William; Bradley, Richard; Yang, Ming; Bunn, Derek; Clarke, Charlie; Wilson, Tom

2007-01-01

This paper describes results from a model of decision-making under uncertainty using a real options methodology, developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The model represents investment decisions in power generation from the perspective of a private company. The investments are subject to uncertain future climate policy, which is treated as an external risk factor over which the company has no control. The aims of this paper are to (i) quantify these regulatory risks in order to improve understanding of how policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour by private companies and (ii) illustrate the effectiveness of the real options approach as a policy analysis tool. The study analysed firms' investment options of coal- and gas-fired power plants and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Policy uncertainty is represented as an exogenous event that creates uncertainty in the carbon price. Our findings indicate that climate policy uncertainty creates a risk premium for power generation investments. In the case of gas- and coal-fired power generation, the risk premium would lead to an increase in electricity prices of 5-10% in order to stimulate investment. In the case of CCS, the risk premium would increase the carbon price required to stimulate investment by 16-37% compared to a situation of perfect certainty. The option to retrofit CCS acts as a hedge against high future carbon prices, and could accelerate investment in coal plant. This paper concludes that to minimise investment risks in low carbon technologies, policy-makers should aim to provide some long-term regulatory certainty. (author)

A qualitative study of nulliparous women's decision making on mode of delivery under China's two-child policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Chunyi; Zhu, Xinli; Ding, Yan; Setterberg Simone; Wang, Xiaojiao; Tao, Hua; Zhang, Yu

2018-07-01

To explore nulliparous women's perceptions of decision making regarding mode of delivery under China's two-child policy. Qualitative descriptive design with in-depth semi-structured interviews. Postnatal wards at a tertiary specialized women's hospital in Shanghai, China. 21 nulliparous women 2-3 days postpartum were purposively sampled until data saturation. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted between October 8th, 2015 and January 31st, 2016. Two overarching descriptive categories were identified: (1) women's decision-making process: stability versus variability, and (2) factors affecting decision making: variety versus interactivity. Four key themes emerged from each category: (1) initial decision making with certainty: anticipated trial of labour, failed trial of labour, 'shy away' and compromise, anticipated caesarean delivery; (2) initial decision making with uncertainty: anticipated trial of labour, failed trial of labour, 'shy away' and compromise; (3) internal factors affecting decision making: knowledge and attitude, and childbirth self-efficacy; and (4) external factors affecting decision making: social support, and the situational environment. At the initial period of China's two-child policy, nulliparous women have perceived their decision-making process regarding mode of delivery as one with complexity and uncertainty, influenced by both internal and external factors. This may have implications for the obstetric setting to develop a well-designed decision support system for pregnant women during the entire pregnancy periods. And it is recommended that care providers should assess women's preferences for mode of delivery from early pregnancy and provide adequate perinatal support and continuity of care for them. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perspective on the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Warren, B.C.

1990-01-01

To anticipate future developments in the area of low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) management, an understanding of the following questions is necessary: what are the current regulatory policies, and What is the view toward proposed changes that affect the treatment of disposal of LLRW? The problem preventing resolution is proponents for change versus proponents for maintaining tradition. The paper discusses the author's anticipations for crises to develop prior to a decision-making mode

Ethical decision making within the bureaucratic context: a case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Desai, Kathryn

2003-01-01

Balancing the polarized notions of quality and quantity of service and care is a challenge for the 21st century health and social service system. The expectation of transparent decision making at both the policy and the practice level of case management has forced practitioners to seek guidance in ethical decision making. Case management, as a system, has potential to lead this new practice approach by incorporating the principles of ethical decision making in planning and coordinating care. A recent case study of ethical decision making within the bureaucratic context offers some insight and learning and may help inform future practice.

Nuclear Export Control Policy in Korea - Present and future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jongsook

2008-01-01

The International community has been facing with the continued challenges for possession and proliferation of WMD over the past years. In addition, it is known that the terrorist groups are interested in acquiring WMD. The black market of WMD related materials and technologies show also the one of seriousness of our challenges. A number of international treaties, agreements and initiatives to control the proliferation of weapons of N, B, C and their delivery system have been existed to deal with these challenges, but their missions are challenged greatly in recent a series of nuclear issues by Iran and North Korea. The paper reviews the current international export control status and Korea export control system and policy. It also addresses some agenda to be done as future export control policy in Korea

A Decision Support System for integrated tourism development: Rethinking tourism policies and management strategies

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Bousset, J. P.; Skuras, D.; Těšitel, Jan; Marsat, J. B.; Petrou, A.; Fiallo-Pantziou, E.; Kušová, Drahomíra; Bartoš, Michael

2007-01-01

Roč. 9, č. 4 (2007), s. 387-404 ISSN 1461-6688 Grant - others:-(XE) QLK5-CT-2000-01211-SPRITE Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Integrated tourism * policy formulation * participatory approaches * simulation models * decision support system Subject RIV: AE - Management ; Administration

Future Tense and Economic Decisions: Controlling for Cultural Evolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Seán G; Winters, James; Chen, Keith

2015-01-01

A previous study by Chen demonstrates a correlation between languages that grammatically mark future events and their speakers' propensity to save, even after controlling for numerous economic and demographic factors. The implication is that languages which grammatically distinguish the present and the future may bias their speakers to distinguish them psychologically, leading to less future-oriented decision making. However, Chen's original analysis assumed languages are independent. This neglects the fact that languages are related, causing correlations to appear stronger than is warranted (Galton's problem). In this paper, we test the robustness of Chen's correlations to corrections for the geographic and historical relatedness of languages. While the question seems simple, the answer is complex. In general, the statistical correlation between the two variables is weaker when controlling for relatedness. When applying the strictest tests for relatedness, and when data is not aggregated across individuals, the correlation is not significant. However, the correlation did remain reasonably robust under a number of tests. We argue that any claims of synchronic patterns between cultural variables should be tested for spurious correlations, with the kinds of approaches used in this paper. However, experiments or case-studies would be more fruitful avenues for future research on this specific topic, rather than further large-scale cross-cultural correlational studies.

THORP and after - challenging state decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bowden, P.; Lawrence, J.

1994-01-01

This article looks at an increasing trend for European Community law to be used by those seeking to challenge decisions taken at a national level which effect the environment. The debate over the future operation of British Nuclear Fuels Ltd's Thermal Oxide Reprocessing Plant at the Sellafield site (THORP) is used as an example of this trend. The United Kingdom government's energy policy authorised the construction and operation of the THORP plant. The decision to continue with the project has been challenged by Greenpeace and Lancashire County Council acting cooperatively. Their challenge was based on Community law and legislation. (UK)

Bioenergy systems sustainability assessment & management (BIOSSAM) guidance portal for policy, decision and development support of integrated bioenergy supply interventions

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Stafford, WHL

2010-08-01

Full Text Available . There are several new bioenergy interventions (policies, projects, or programmes) that are being considered and these developments must be assessed in terms of their sustainability. Both public and private sector policy makers, decision makers, and technology...

The qualitative characteristics of financial information, and managers’ accounting decisions:evidence from IFRS policy changes

OpenAIRE

Nobes, Christopher; Stadler, Christian

2015-01-01

This is the first empirical study that uses publicly available data to provide direct evidence about the role of the qualitative characteristics (QCs) of financial information in managements’ accounting decisions. Based on 40,895 hand-collected IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) policy choices on 16 topics made by 514 large firms of 10 jurisdictions in the period 2005–2011, we identify 204 reasons for policy changes. The majority of these refer to QCs from the conceptual frame...

Climatic change. Future perspectives; Cambio climatico. Perspectivas futuras

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Galan Madruga, D.; Garrido Morales, J.L.

2012-07-01

The present article aims to offer an overview of climate change in relation to aspects such as their relationship to greenhouse gases (GHG), effects on the environment, human being, economy, possible consequences in a future and the importance in the policies and decision taken and to mitigate global warming. (Author)

The power of science economic research and European decision-making : the case of energy and environment policies

CERN Document Server

Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico

2010-01-01

This book highlights the interaction between science and politics and between research in economics and European Union policy-making. It focuses on the use of Quantitative tools, Top-down and Bottom-up models in up-stream European decision-making process through five EU policy case studies: energy taxation, climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and internalisation of external costs.

Correlation between Government and Economic Growth –Fiscal Policy during the Transition in Albania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MSc. Xhenet Syka

2013-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper we tried to analyze some aspects of fiscal policy in our country, without pretending to give our own sample. Fiscal policy is the use of government expenditures and taxes which affect economic activity. Determination of fiscal policy in a given year takes into account the time virtually the past (current socio-economic status and the implications for the future (fiscal sustainability. In general the cases dealt the role fiscal policy plays toward economic growth. The analysis many focused both in the theoretical treatment as well as the role that fiscal policy has played in our country, going even further in some suggestions for the future. The most important issue was addressed in the long-term fiscal policy view, fiscal sustainability. In the final everything is addressed to the role of fiscal policy on social issues. The role that fiscal policy should play in economic and social development has long been a controversial issue and is still different among economists. While a restrictive fiscal policy means increasing taxes and cut government spending. Fiscal policy may be expansionary or restrictive. An expansionary fiscal policy means a reduction of direct and indirect taxes and increased government expenditures. Choose between two types of fiscal policy is not an easy decision, both in terms of the current state of the economy, as well as political decisions.

Long-term land use future scenarios for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-08-01

In order to facilitate decision regarding environmental restoration activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), the United States Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) conducted analyses to project reasonable future land use scenarios at the INEL for the next 100 years. The methodology for generating these scenarios included: review of existing DOE plans, policy statements, and mission statements pertaining to the INEL; review of surrounding land use characteristics and county developments policies; solicitation of input from local, county, state and federal planners, policy specialists, environmental professionals, and elected officials; and review of environmental and development constraints at the INEL site that could influence future land use

Pandemic H1N1 in Canada and the use of evidence in developing public health policies--a policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosella, Laura C; Wilson, Kumanan; Crowcroft, Natasha S; Chu, Anna; Upshur, Ross; Willison, Donald; Deeks, Shelley L; Schwartz, Brian; Tustin, Jordan; Sider, Doug; Goel, Vivek

2013-04-01

When responding to a novel infectious disease outbreak, policies are set under time constraints and uncertainty which can limit the ability to control the outbreak and result in unintended consequences including lack of public confidence. The H1N1 pandemic highlighted challenges in public health decision-making during a public health emergency. Understanding this process to identify barriers and modifiable influences is important to improve the response to future emergencies. The purpose of this study is to examine the H1N1 pandemic decision-making process in Canada with an emphasis on the use of evidence for public health decisions. Using semi-structured key informant interviews conducted after the pandemic (July-November 2010) and a document analysis, we examined four highly debated pandemic policies: use of adjuvanted vaccine by pregnant women, vaccine priority groups and sequencing, school closures and personal protective equipment. Data were analysed for thematic content guided by Lomas' policy decision-making framework as well as indicative coding using iterative methods. We interviewed 40 public health officials and scientific advisors across Canada and reviewed 76 pandemic policy documents. Our analysis revealed that pandemic pre-planning resulted in strong beliefs, which defined the decision-making process. Existing ideological perspectives of evidence strongly influenced how information was used such that the same evidentiary sources were interpreted differently according to the ideological perspective. Participants recognized that current models for public health decision-making failed to make explicit the roles of scientific evidence in relation to contextual factors. Conflict avoidance theory explained policy decisions that went against the prevailing evidence. Clarification of roles and responsibilities within the public health system would reduce duplication and maintain credibility. A more transparent and iterative approach to incorporating evidence

Economic policy uncertainty, credit risks and banks lending decisions: Evidence from Chinese commercial banks

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Qinwei Chi; Wenjing Li

2017-01-01

Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on banks’ credit risks and lending decisions. The results reveal significantly positive connections among EPU and non-performing loan ratios, loan concentrations and the normal loan migration rate. This indicates that EPU increases banks’ credit risks and negatively influences loan size, especially for joint-equity banks. Given the increasing credit risks generated by EPU, banks can improve operational performance by reducing loan sizes. Further research indicates that the effects of EPU on banks’ credit risks and lending decisions are moderated by the marketization level, with financial depth moderating the effect on banks’ credit risks and strengthening it on lending decisions.

Deploying Renewables -- principles for effective policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-09-29

Renewable energy can play a fundamental role in tackling climate change, environmental degradation and energy security. As these challenges have become ever more pressing, governments and markets are seeking innovative solutions. Yet, what are the key factors that will determine the success of renewable energy policies? How can current policies be improved to encourage greater deployment of renewables? What impact can more effective policies have on renewables' share in the future global energy mix and how soon? This publication addresses these questions. Responding to the Gleneagles G8 call for a clean and secure energy future, it highlights key policy tools to fast-track renewables into the mainstream. This analysis illustrates good practices by applying the combined metrics of effectiveness and efficiency to renewable energy policies in the electricity, heating and transport sectors. It highlights significant barriers to accelerating renewables penetration, and argues that the great potential of renewables can be exploited much more rapidly and to a much larger extent if good practices are adopted. Carefully designed policy frameworks, customised to support technologies at differing stages of maturity, will deliver a strong portfolio of renewable energy technologies. The document provides recommendations on key principles for policy design as a template for decision makers.

Prospect of Future as a Support to Search for Information for Business Decision

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nelson Daishiro Yoshida

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The use of future studies methodologies to provide information for decision making has been studied in this research. The objectives of the research are to identify the association of methods to different information categories, the importance of future studies, the frequency of use, the time horizon and users perceived satisfaction with the results. The research is implemented through a mixed-methods methodology, with a survey and case studies. Combined results have been analyzed in a complementary approach. Results fromthe sample indicate that there is an association of methods with information categories. Evaluation of the importance of future studies is high and depends on the decision type to be strategic or tactical,it also influences the frequency of use. Time horizon is associated to methods. The most used methods are the ones with high personal interaction, on the other hand, objective methods, e.g. mathematical techniques, are not among the most used. In the case studies results, methods based on judgment and opinion with high personal interaction are the most used. There were concerns about the need for more structure to deal with future studies in the company and also about its practice in accordance with methodological recommendations.

Linking Science and Management in an Interactive Geospatial, Mutli-Criterion, Structured Decision Support Framework: Use Case Studies of the "Future Forests Geo-visualization and Decision Support Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Pontius, J.; Duncan, J.

2017-12-01

Land managers are often faced with balancing management activities to accomplish a diversity of management objectives, in systems faced with many stress agents. Advances in ecosystem modeling provide a rich source of information to inform management. Coupled with advances in decision support techniques and computing capabilities, interactive tools are now accessible for a broad audience of stakeholders. Here we present one such tool designed to capture information on how climate change may impact forested ecosystems, and how that impact varies spatially across the landscape. This tool integrates empirical models of current and future forest structure and function in a structured decision framework that allows users to customize weights for multiple management objectives and visualize suitability outcomes across the landscape. Combined with climate projections, the resulting products allow stakeholders to compare the relative success of various management objectives on a pixel by pixel basis and identify locations where management outcomes are most likely to be met. Here we demonstrate this approach with the integration of several of the preliminary models developed to map species distributions, sugar maple health, forest fragmentation risk and hemlock vulnerability to hemlock woolly adelgid under current and future climate scenarios. We compare three use case studies with objective weightings designed to: 1) Identify key parcels for sugarbush conservation and management, 2) Target state lands that may serve as hemlock refugia from hemlock woolly adelgid induced mortality, and 3) Examine how climate change may alter the success of managing for both sugarbush and hemlock across privately owned lands. This tool highlights the value of flexible models that can be easily run with customized weightings in a dynamic, integrated assessment that allows users to hone in on their potentially complex management objectives, and to visualize and prioritize locations across the

Changing the Future of Obesity: Science, Policy and Action

Science.gov (United States)

Gortmaker, Steven L; Swinburn, Boyd; Levy, David; Carter, Rob; Mabry, Patricia L.; Finegood, Diane; Huang, Terry; Marsh, Tim; Moodie, Marj

2011-01-01

The global obesity epidemic has been on the rise for four decades, yet sustained prevention efforts have barely begun. An emerging science using quantitative models has provided key insights into the dynamics of this epidemic, and made it possible to combine different pieces of evidence and calculate the impact of behaviors, interventions and policies at multiple levels – from person to population. Forecasts indicate large effects of high levels of obesity on future population health and economic outcomes. Energy gap models have quantified the relationships of changes in energy intake and expenditure to weight change, and documented the dominant role of increasing intake on obesity prevalence. The empirical evidence base for effective interventions is limited but growing. Several cost-effective policies are identified that governments should prioritize for implementation. Systems science provides a framework for organizing the complexity of forces driving the obesity epidemic and has important implications for policy-makers. Multiple players (including governments, international organizations, the private sector, and civil society) need to contribute complementary actions in a coordinated approach. Priority actions include policies to improve the food and built environments, cross-cutting actions (such as leadership, health-in-all policies, and monitoring), and much greater funding for prevention programs. Increased investment in population obesity monitoring would improve the accuracy of forecasts and evaluations. Embedding actions within existing systems in both health and non-health sectors (trade, agriculture, transport, urban planning, development) can greatly increase impact and sustainability. We call for a sustained worldwide effort to monitor, prevent and control obesity. PMID:21872752

Energy for a righteous world with a safe future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rose, D.J.

1977-01-01

We are in charge of our energy future and thus of the future itself. Energy decisions in the past were made on a too narrow and short-term basis, and we can daily clearly observe their inadequacy. The policy's quality does not correspond to the significance of the problem. A greater approximation leads to a consequent policy of the development of energy alternatives, of which some considerably deviate from those which would result at a closer look. This lecture deals with two aspects of the problem, both concern the future of nuclear energy. The first aspect treats extensively the energy possibilities available to the world in the future; the second deals more with the problem of the acceptibility of nuclear energy, reprocessing of nuclear fuels, the relationship to atomic armament and the thus involved problems. (orig.) [de

Design of coordinated energy and environmental policies: use of multi-criteria decision-making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greening, L.A.; Bernow, Steve

2004-01-01

Conventional economic modeling tools that depend upon one criterion to select among possible alternatives for inclusion in an energy or environmental policy have limitations. Formulation of both sets of policies involves large numbers of stakeholders with differing views and preferences. Those views and preferences cannot always be determined in advance or with certainty since many of the attributes of these policy alternatives are non-market valued. The use of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods in an integrated assessment (IA) framework offers a far better alternative to cost/benefit and similar methods. To facilitate understanding of MCDM methods, we offer a typology for this broad class of models, suggest some of the types of problems that may be analyzed with these methods, and recommend the implementation of several MCDM methods in currently evolving IA frameworks. Depending upon the choice of method from this family of methods, a wide range of attributes associated with multi-pollutant reduction and energy system development strategies, and a diversity of stakeholder preferences may be incorporated into the analysis. The resulting policy space can then provide a basis for comparison and selection of policy alternatives in a political or negotiated process

On formally integrating science and policy: walking the walk

Science.gov (United States)

Nichols, James D.; Johnson, Fred A.; Williams, Byron K.; Boomer, G. Scott

2015-01-01

The contribution of science to the development and implementation of policy is typically neither direct nor transparent.  In 1995, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) made a decision that was unprecedented in natural resource management, turning to an unused and unproven decision process to carry out trust responsibilities mandated by an international treaty.  The decision process was adopted for the establishment of annual sport hunting regulations for the most economically important duck population in North America, the 6 to 11 million mallards Anas platyrhynchos breeding in the mid-continent region of north-central United States and central Canada.  The key idea underlying the adopted decision process was to formally embed within it a scientific process designed to reduce uncertainty (learn) and thus make better decisions in the future.  The scientific process entails use of models to develop predictions of competing hypotheses about system response to the selected action at each decision point.  These prediction not only are used to select the optimal management action, but also are compared with the subsequent estimates of system state variables, providing evidence for modifying degrees of confidence in, and hence relative influence of, these models at the next decision point.  Science and learning in one step are formally and directly incorporated into the next decision, contrasting with the usual ad hoc and indirect use of scientific results in policy development and decision-making.  Application of this approach over the last 20 years has led to a substantial reduction in uncertainty, as well as to an increase in transparency and defensibility of annual decisions and a decrease in the contentiousness of the decision process.  As resource managers are faced with increased uncertainty associated with various components of global change, this approach provides a roadmap for the future scientific management of natural resources.  

Probabilistic Decision Tools for Determining Impacts of Agricultural Development Policy on Household Nutrition

Science.gov (United States)

Whitney, Cory W.; Lanzanova, Denis; Muchiri, Caroline; Shepherd, Keith D.; Rosenstock, Todd S.; Krawinkel, Michael; Tabuti, John R. S.; Luedeling, Eike

2018-03-01

Governments around the world have agreed to end hunger and food insecurity and to improve global nutrition, largely through changes to agriculture and food systems. However, they are faced with a lot of uncertainty when making policy decisions, since any agricultural changes will influence social and biophysical systems, which could yield either positive or negative nutrition outcomes. We outline a holistic probability modeling approach with Bayesian Network (BN) models for nutritional impacts resulting from agricultural development policy. The approach includes the elicitation of expert knowledge for impact model development, including sensitivity analysis and value of information calculations. It aims at a generalizable methodology that can be applied in a wide range of contexts. To showcase this approach, we develop an impact model of Vision 2040, Uganda's development strategy, which, among other objectives, seeks to transform the country's agricultural landscape from traditional systems to large-scale commercial agriculture. Model results suggest that Vision 2040 is likely to have negative outcomes for the rural livelihoods it intends to support; it may have no appreciable influence on household hunger but, by influencing preferences for and access to quality nutritional foods, may increase the prevalence of micronutrient deficiency. The results highlight the trade-offs that must be negotiated when making decisions regarding agriculture for nutrition, and the capacity of BNs to make these trade-offs explicit. The work illustrates the value of BNs for supporting evidence-based agricultural development decisions.

Nuclear fuels policy. Report of the Atlantic Council's Nuclear Fuels Policy working group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1976-01-01

The purpose of the policy paper presented is to recommend the actions deemed necessary to assure that future US and other non-Communist countries' nuclear fuels supply will be adequate to meet future energy demand. Taken together, the recommended decisions and actions form a nuclear fuels supply policy for the United States Government and for the private sector, and new areas of responsibility for the appropriate international organizations in which the US participates. The principal conclusions and recommendations are that the US and the other industrialized non-Communist countries should strive for increased flexibility of primary energy fuel sources, and that a balanced energy strategy therefore depends upon the security of supply of energy resources and the ability to substitute one form of fuel for another. The substitutability and efficient use of energy resources are enhanced by accelerating the supply and use of electricity

The Mix of Accountancy Policy and Tax Strategy in Company’s Financial Result

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafał Marciniak

2009-07-01

Full Text Available The use of legally possible accountancy methods may influence entrepreneurs real economic situation as well as their ability to perform in the future. This article presents an introduction to the problems of decision dilemmas in the area of balance law. A future result-oriented approach to the accountancy policy requires devising a method which would help choose an optimal variant among the least risky ones. Since a choice dilemma deals with future and uncertain events, it is necessary to apply statistical analysis with its rules of inference. Because of the changing environment, this issue poses a complex decision problem in conditions of uncertainty. It, therefore, means that the rules of probability theory need to be used in the inference process. With subjective probability it is then possible to calculate the value of expected profits and define the risk of the variants within the discussed accountancy policy.

Lessons learned from applying external input to DOE policy decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imholz, R.M.; Hindman, T.B. Jr.; Brubaker, D.M.

1990-01-01

Our nation has entered an era in which the public is demanding clean up and restoration of its environment, understandable information, and participation in decision making. The US Department of Energy's (DOE's) culture, which grew out of the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) culture of classification, compartmentalization, and strict-need-to-know dissemination of information, was in direct conflict with this demand for public involvement. The DOE recognized this and committed to changing their culture into one of openness and public involvement in decision making and policy direction. This paper reports that as a result, DOE created a number of external review groups, one of them being the State and Tribal Government Working Group (STGWG). The STGWG was created to review the first Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Five-Year Plan. The Five-Year Plan establishes an agenda for compliance and cleanup of DOE installations against which progress can be measured

Future command and control systems should combine decision support and personalization interface features

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Streefkerk, J.W.; Smets, N.; Varkevisser, M.; Hiemstra-Van Mastrigt, S.

2014-01-01

On future battlefields, increasingly more sensor information will become available for military commanders to support mission execution. To improve (shared) situational awareness, decision-making and communication in face of this increased amount of information, the design of command and control

Management of carbon across sectors and scales: Insights from land use decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Dilling, L.; Failey, E. L.

2008-12-01

Carbon management is increasingly becoming a topic of interest among policy circles and business entrepreneurs alike. In the United States, while no binding regulatory framework exists, carbon management is nonetheless being pursued both by voluntary actions at a variety of levels, from the individual to the national level, and through mandatory policies at state and local levels. Controlling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for climate purposes will ultimately require a form of governance that will ensure that the actions taken and being rewarded financially are indeed effective with respect to the global atmosphere on long time scales. Moreover, this new system of governance will need to interface with existing governance structures and decision criteria that have been established to arbitrate among various societal values and priorities. These existing institutions and expressed values will need to be examined against those proposed for effective carbon governance, such as the permanence of carbon storage, the additionality of credited activities, and the prevention of leakage, or displacement of prohibited activities to another region outside the governance boundary. The latter issue suggests that interactions among scales of decision making and governance will be extremely important in determining the ultimate success of any future system of carbon governance. The goal of our study is to understand the current context of land use decision making in different sectors and examine the potential for future carbon policy to be effective given this context. This study examined land use decision making in the U.S. state of Colorado from a variety of ownership perspectives, including US Federal land managers, individual private owners, and policy makers involved in land use at a number of different scales. This paper will report on the results of interviews with land managers and provide insight into the policy context for carbon management through land

Governing irrationality, or a more than rational government? Reflections on the rescientisation of decision making in British public policy

OpenAIRE

Mark Whitehead; Rhys Jones; Jessica Pykett

2011-01-01

It appears that recent debates within human geography, and the broader social sciences, concerning the more-than-rational constitution of human decision making are now being paralleled by changes in the ways in which public policy makers are conceiving of and addressing human behaviour. This paper focuses on the rise of so-called Behaviour Change policies in public policy in the UK. Behaviour Change policies draw on the behavioural insights being developed within the neurosciences, behavioura...

A new approach to measure speculation in the oil futures market and some policy implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chan, Leo H.; Nguyen, Chi M.; Chan, Kam C.

2015-01-01

We propose using a new relative measure, the speculative ratio, defined as trading volume divided by open interest, to gauge speculative activity in the oil futures market. We apply the speculative ratio to examine the relation between basis and speculative activity in the oil futures market before and after the financialization of the oil market in 2003. Our finding suggests that the oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in the post-financialization period. Our finding carries several practical policy implications, as follows: (1) both the commodity exchange and the regulator should design regulations and trading policies that improve basis risk; (2) on the commodity exchange side, new policies on margin requirements and position limits for speculators should be implemented; (3) margin requirements should be based on the level of basis risk; (4) regulators should speed up implementation of the position limit rule in the Dodd–Frank Act; and (5) stronger and more meaningful enforcement actions by regulators are required to punish and deter market manipulators. - Highlights: • Use a new speculative ratio to gauge speculative activities in oil futures market. • Examine the relation between basis and speculative activities. • The new speculative ratio also works well in the post-2008 oil bubble period. • Oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in post-financialization in 2003.

Journal of the two worlds. Energies of the future; Revue des deux mondes. Les energies du futur

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-07-01

Confusion and irrationality are the two master-words of today's debates about energies and their impact on safety, environment, ethic and society. On the other hand, reports about urgent decisions to be taken are piling up (wastes reprocessing, future of nuclear energy, European policy etc..). This book analyzes the possible scenarios and the energy challenges at the year 2030 and 2050 vistas. (J.S.)

Provincial prenatal record revision: a multiple case study of evidence-based decision-making at the population-policy level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olson Joanne

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a significant gap in the knowledge translation literature related to how research evidence actually contributes to health care decision-making. Decisions around what care to provide at the population (rather than individual level are particularly complex, involving considerations such as feasibility, cost, and population needs in addition to scientific evidence. One example of decision-making at this "population-policy" level involves what screening questions and intervention guides to include on standardized provincial prenatal records. As mandatory medical reporting forms, prenatal records are potentially powerful vehicles for promoting population-wide evidence-based care. However, the extent to which Canadian prenatal records reflect best-practice recommendations for the assessment of well-known risk factors such as maternal smoking and alcohol consumption varies markedly across Canadian provinces and territories. The goal of this study is to better understand the interaction of contextual factors and research evidence on decision-making at the population-policy level, by examining the processes by which provincial prenatal records are reviewed and revised. Methods Guided by Dobrow et al.'s (2004 conceptual model for context-based evidence-based decision-making, this study will use a multiple case study design with embedded units of analysis to examine contextual factors influencing the prenatal record revision process in different Canadian provinces and territories. Data will be collected using multiple methods to construct detailed case descriptions for each province/territory. Using qualitative data analysis techniques, decision-making processes involving prenatal record content specifically related to maternal smoking and alcohol use will be compared both within and across each case, to identify key contextual factors influencing the uptake and application of research evidence by prenatal record review

Characteristics and use of urban health indicator tools by municipal built environment policy and decision-makers: a systematic review protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

Pineo, Helen; Glonti, Ketevan; Rutter, Harry; Zimmermann, Nicole; Wilkinson, Paul; Davies, Michael

2017-01-13

There is wide agreement that there is a lack of attention to health in municipal environmental policy-making, such as urban planning and regeneration. Explanations for this include differing professional norms between health and urban environment professionals, system complexity and limited evidence for causality between attributes of the built environment and health outcomes. Data from urban health indicator (UHI) tools are potentially a valuable form of evidence for local government policy and decision-makers. Although many UHI tools have been specifically developed to inform policy, there is poor understanding of how they are used. This study aims to identify the nature and characteristics of UHI tools and their use by municipal built environment policy and decision-makers. Health and social sciences databases (ASSIA, Campbell Library, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Scopus, Social Policy and Practice and Web of Science Core Collection) will be searched for studies using UHI tools alongside hand-searching of key journals and citation searches of included studies. Advanced searches of practitioner websites and Google will also be used to find grey literature. Search results will be screened for UHI tools, and for studies which report on or evaluate the use of such tools. Data about UHI tools will be extracted to compile a census and taxonomy of existing tools based on their specific characteristics and purpose. In addition, qualitative and quantitative studies about the use of these tools will be appraised using quality appraisal tools produced by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and synthesised in order to gain insight into the perceptions, value and use of UHI tools in the municipal built environment policy and decision-making process. This review is not registered with PROSPERO. This systematic review focuses specifically on UHI tools that assess the physical environment's impact on health (such as transport, housing, air quality and greenspace

Using decision pathway surveys to inform climate engineering policy choices.

Science.gov (United States)

Gregory, Robin; Satterfield, Terre; Hasell, Ariel

2016-01-19

Over the coming decades citizens living in North America and Europe will be asked about a variety of new technological and behavioral initiatives intended to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. A common approach to public input has been surveys whereby respondents' attitudes about climate change are explained by individuals' demographic background, values, and beliefs. In parallel, recent deliberative research seeks to more fully address the complex value tradeoffs linked to novel technologies and difficult ethical questions that characterize leading climate mitigation alternatives. New methods such as decision pathway surveys may offer important insights for policy makers by capturing much of the depth and reasoning of small-group deliberations while meeting standard survey goals including large-sample stakeholder engagement. Pathway surveys also can help participants to deepen their factual knowledge base and arrive at a more complete understanding of their own values as they apply to proposed policy alternatives. The pathway results indicate more fully the conditional and context-specific nature of support for several "upstream" climate interventions, including solar radiation management techniques and carbon dioxide removal technologies.

Effects of episodic future thinking on discounting: Personalized age-progressed pictures improve risky long-term health decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, Brent A; Reed, Derek D; Jarmolowicz, David P

2016-03-01

Many everyday choices are associated with both delayed and probabilistic outcomes. The temporal attention hypothesis suggests that individuals' decision making can be improved by focusing attention on temporally distal events and implies that environmental manipulations that bring temporally distal outcomes into focus may alter an individual's degree of discounting. One such manipulation, episodic future thinking, has shown to lower discount rates; however, several questions remain about the applicability of episodic future thinking to domains other than delay discounting. The present experiments examine the effects of a modified episodic-future-thinking procedure in which participants viewed age-progressed computer-generated images of themselves and answered questions related to their future, on probability discounting in the context of both a delayed health gain and loss. Results indicate that modified episodic future thinking effectively altered individuals' degree of discounting in the predicted directions and demonstrate the applicability of episodic future thinking to decision making of socially significant outcomes. © 2015 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Edufare for the Future Precariat: The Moral Agenda in Australia's "Earning or Learning" Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Doherty, Catherine

2017-01-01

This paper considers the educational experience constructed under Australia's policy decision in 2009 to extend compulsory education by requiring that students must be "earning or learning" till 17 years of age. The discussion draws on an empirical project that explored the moral order operating in classrooms for students retained under…

Tactical decision making for selective expansion of operating room resources incorporating financial criteria and uncertainty in subspecialties' future workloads.

Science.gov (United States)

Dexter, Franklin; Ledolter, Johannes; Wachtel, Ruth E

2005-05-01

We considered the allocation of operating room (OR) time at facilities where the strategic decision had been made to increase the number of ORs. Allocation occurs in two stages: a long-term tactical stage followed by short-term operational stage. Tactical decisions, approximately 1 yr in advance, determine what specialized equipment and expertise will be needed. Tactical decisions are based on estimates of future OR workload for each subspecialty or surgeon. We show that groups of surgeons can be excluded from consideration at this tactical stage (e.g., surgeons who need intensive care beds or those with below average contribution margins per OR hour). Lower and upper limits are estimated for the future demand of OR time by the remaining surgeons. Thus, initial OR allocations can be accomplished with only partial information on future OR workload. Once the new ORs open, operational decision-making based on OR efficiency is used to fill the OR time and adjust staffing. Surgeons who were not allocated additional time at the tactical stage are provided increased OR time through operational adjustments based on their actual workload. In a case study from a tertiary hospital, future demand estimates were needed for only 15% of surgeons, illustrating the practicality of these methods for use in tactical OR allocation decisions.

New dawn for electricity? EU policy and the changing decision space for electricity production in Sweden; a CANES Working Paper

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nilsson, Maans

2009-11-15

The European Union has taken an increasing interest in governing the energy sector in its Member States. However, EU still competes with national-level policies as well as sectoral organizational fields with sticky institutions, norms and knowledge. Therefore, despite its high ambitions in the energy field, for instance in the promotion of renewables and market reform, it is not clear whether the EU really exerts a strong influence, and if there is such an influence, the processes of influence and 'filtering' through to national political and industrial structures are not well understood. This paper examines a recent strategic change amongst national actors in Sweden in the energy sector; the decision space for investment in electricity. It examines the influence of European policy change, national political and policy change and organizational field-level developments on this decision space. It finds that European policy has rarely been very coercive, partly because Sweden has been a forerunner both on electricity market reform and renewable energy promotion, but that its influence is notable both directly through its emissions trading directive and more indirectly through signalling its intentions and long-term goals. Still, it appears that domestic developments, both cognitive and normative structures in the organizational field, and national policy change remain more instrumental determinants of the changed decision space. (Author)

Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryan G Drum

Full Text Available Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the annual cycle: Linking policy alternatives, landowner decisions, and biological population outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Drum, Ryan G.; Ribic, Christine; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Grant, Edward C.; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, D.C.; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David W.

2015-01-01

Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

Advancing the field of elder abuse: future directions and policy implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, XinQi

2012-11-01

Elder abuse, sometimes called elder mistreatment or elder maltreatment, includes psychological, physical, and sexual abuse; neglect (caregiver neglect and self-neglect); and financial exploitation. Evidence suggests that one in 10 older adults experiences some form of elder abuse, but only one in 25 cases is reported to social services agencies. At the same time, elder abuse is associated with significant morbidity and premature mortality. Despite these findings, there is a great paucity in research, practice, and policy addressing the pervasive issues of elder abuse. Through my experiences as a American Political Sciences Association Congressional Policy Fellow and Health and Aging Policy Fellow working with the Administration on Community Living (ACL) (previously known as the Administration on Aging) for the last 2 years, I will describe the major functions of the ACL and highlight two major pieces of federal legislation: The Older Americans Act and the Elder Justice Act. I will also highlight major research gaps and future policy relevant research directions for the field of elder abuse. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

Environmental Decision Making and Information Technology: Issues Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barg, S.; Fletcher, T.; Mechling, J.; Tonn, B.; Turner, R.

1999-05-01

This report presents a summary of the Information Technology and Environmental Decision Making Workshop that was held at Harvard University, October 1-3, 1998. Over sixty participants from across the US took part in discussions that focused on the current practice of using information technology to support environmental decision making and on future considerations of information technology development, information policies, and data quality issues in this area. Current practice is focusing on geographic information systems and visualization tools, Internet applications, and data warehousing. In addition, numerous organizations are developing environmental enterprise systems to integrate environmental information resources. Plaguing these efforts are issues of data quality (and public trust), system design, and organizational change. In the future, much effort needs to focus on building community-based environmental decision-making systems and processes, which will be a challenge given that exactly what needs to be developed is largely unknown and that environmental decision making in this arena has been characterized by a high level of conflict. Experimentation and evaluation are needed to contribute to efficient and effective learning about how best to use information technology to improve environmental decision making.

Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Carly N; Inayatullah, Sohail; Burgman, Mark A; Sutherland, William J; Wintle, Brendan A

2014-09-01

Advanced warning of potential new opportunities and threats related to biodiversity allows decision-makers to act strategically to maximize benefits or minimize costs. Strategic foresight explores possible futures, their consequences for decisions, and the actions that promote more desirable futures. Foresight tools, such as horizon scanning and scenario planning, are increasingly used by governments and business for long-term strategic planning and capacity building. These tools are now being applied in ecology, although generally not as part of a comprehensive foresight strategy. We highlight several ways foresight could play a more significant role in environmental decisions by: monitoring existing problems, highlighting emerging threats, identifying promising new opportunities, testing the resilience of policies, and defining a research agenda. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Designing Observation and Modeling Systems to Inform Decisions and Policies on Freshwater Objectives in New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Baisden, W. T.; Ellis, T.; Rissman, C.; Moore, C.; Matthews, A.

2016-12-01

Declines in New Zealand's freshwater quality have led to legislation - the 2014 National Policy Statement on Freshwater Management (NPS-FM) - which requires regional governments to set "objectives" and design policies accordingly. In most regions, increases in freshwater contaminants are derived largely from intensifying agriculture and come as nitrogen, phosphorous or sediment, or a combination thereof. Here, the development and application of N and O isotopes as natural tracers for nitrate is examined as a case study, in the context of a wider hierarchy of observations such as N concentrations, flow and broader hydrochemistry used for NPS-FM implementation. The analysis of N and O isotopes in nitrate provides specific information on sources and removal processes that cannot be obtained by other measurements. Yet, despite considerable development of the technical methodology and environment-specific interpretation, application of measurements has faced barriers. Many may be typical of science in a small advanced nation with a population of 4.5 million, but others are unique due to New Zealand's limited rural population base and large diversity in physical geography, as well as a unique economic reliance on highly productive pastoral agricultural systems. Seventeen different regional governments are empowered to regulate in ways consistent with local consultation and democracy within their catchment boundaries, but with limited resources to align highly technical observational data to policies and decisions, as well as supporting models. The resulting gaps in communication and technical capability combine with a diversity of approaches to pose both challenges and opportunities for development and application of hierarchical observation systems. Success appears to lie in ensuring decision frameworks can be `mapped', so that different frameworks can be compared, and the benefits of sophisticated observations understood directly in relation to influence on regional

Edufare for the future precariat: the moral agenda in Australia’s ‘earning or learning’ policy

OpenAIRE

Doherty, Catherine

2017-01-01

This paper considers the educational experience constructed under Australia’s policy decision in 2009 to extend compulsory education by requiring that students must be ‘earning or learning’ till 17 years of age. The discussion draws on an empirical project that explored the moral order operating in classrooms for students retained under this policy in non-academic pathways in high schools and Technical and Further Education colleges across three towns experiencing youth employment stress. It ...

The Impact of United States Monetary Policy in the Crude Oil futures market

Science.gov (United States)

Padilla-Padilla, Fernando M.

This research examines the empirical impact the United States monetary policy, through the federal fund interest rate, has on the volatility in the crude oil price in the futures market. Prior research has shown how macroeconomic events and variables have impacted different financial markets within short and long--term movements. After testing and decomposing the variables, the two stationary time series were analyzed using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The empirical evidence shows, with statistical significance, a direct relationship when explaining crude oil prices as function of fed fund rates (t-1) and an indirect relationship when explained as a function of fed fund rates (t-2). These results partially address the literature review lacunas within the topic of the existing implication monetary policy has within the crude oil futures market.

Alzheimer's disease legislation and policy--now and in the future.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffman, David

2014-04-01

Recent studies have pointed to the large and increasingly complex issues surrounding dementia in American society in general and health care in particular. The initial foray into the federal policy arena, the National Alzheimer's Project Act, is a good first step but remains limited in scope and resources. Seeing the need for greater effort, thirty-three states have convened advisory groups and published their own plans for coordinating state-level activity to address Alzheimer's disease across service systems. This article examines the current federal and state policy statements on dementia-related issues and offers an outlook and suggestions for next steps along with the imperative for action on a significant scale. This is necessary to address issues in a meaningful way today instead of simply holding out hope for a treatment or cure in the future. Dementia in general and Alzheimer's disease in particular affect individuals and every facet of families, health care, business, states, and communities. While public policy statements at all levels call for increased coordination of resources, better communication, awareness, and essential linkages, more effort is required.

Politics of oil in Venezuela: A decision-making analysis of PDVSA's internationalisation policy

Science.gov (United States)

Baena, Cesar E.

The high degree of international vertical integration achieved by the Venezuelan state oil enterprise, Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), has placed it among the most important oil multinationals (MNs). The policy of creating downstream outlets through the establishment of foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the form of refinery assets was given the term of 'internationalisation'. By analysing PDVSA's internationalisation policy, the thesis explores the difficulties encountered by a major state-owned enterprise (SOE) from a developing country in its efforts to grow beyond national borders. The study focuses on the impact of democratic bargaining on the process of oil policymaking in Venezuela, stressing the constraints posed by politics on PDVSA's efforts to expand its foreign operations. Specifically, the study examines the intricate policymaking process that shaped the origins and the development of PDVSA's internationalisation policy, underlying the events and factors that influenced each one of its three distinguishable phases: adoption, formulation, and implementation. The tensions between politics and corporate strategy are highlighted at the core of the policymaking process. The study also looks at the relationship between the oil industry and the other two key decision-making centres involved in the oil policymaking process: the executive and Congress. In exploring the ways in which each one of them sought to influence policy outcome, the study attempts to gain insight into the main factors that prompted the tensions among the policy actors involved. Three environments, or pressure-generating centres, constantly exert influence on the oil industry: the oil market, the political context and the government's financial situation. By seeking to determine the industry's response to their pervasive influence on policy formulation and implementation, this research ascertains the extent to which these variables influenced the decision-making process that

Environmental science-policy interactions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kamelarczyk, Kewin Bach Friis

+ (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhancement of forest carbon stocks) process and the phenomenon of deforestation in Zambia as research examples. The research was carried out from mid 2008 and to mid 2013 and applies a mixed methods research design. Fieldwork was carried out...... to science? This PhD thesis contributes to answering this questions; however it does this by questioning the conceptions of science that contribute to political decision-making and by exploring the relationship between scientific knowledge, other types of knowledge and policy. This PhD study employs the REDD...... in future REDD+ design and implementation. To curtail potential negative consequences of the identified mode of science-policy interaction in Zambia, the study concludes by making a number of proposals. The proposals are generic in nature and may be found relevant in environmental policy processes outside...

Public Marketing: An Alternative Policy Decision-Making Idea for Small Cities. Community Development Research Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyers, James; And Others

The concept of public marketing presents a strategy for the systems approach to community development that would facilitate the community decision making process via improved communication. Basic aspects of the social marketing process include: (1) product policy; (2) channels of distribution; (3) pricing (perceived price vs quality and quantity…

The Decision to Form the Kangan Committee--A Case Study in the Educational Policy Process.

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, John

1983-01-01

The postsecondary education policymaking process in Australia, rather than being goal-oriented and rational, is a series of adjustments to existing policy dictated by political expediency, often over many years and changes of government and leading to decisions reflecting unstable origins. This committee's broad influences illustrate this process.…

Saltsjoebaden V - Taking international air pollution policies into the future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-10-15

24-26 June 2013, 130 leading international policy makers, scientists, experts and others met at an international workshop in Gothenburg, Sweden, in order to discuss and outline future directions in air pollution science and policy. The workshop, which was organised in close collaboration with the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution and the European Commission, involved several themes such as linkages to climate change including SLCP, nitrogen, global governance and effects to health and environment. The output is a series of recommendations for further actions with respect to effects to health, ecosystems and near-term climate actions. Recommendations were also given with respect to heavy metals and POPs. The recommendations are directed towards several international organisations and initiatives such as CLRTAP, European Commission, Climate and Clean Air Coalition and the Arctic Council. (Author)

Carbon offset potentials and design: Anticipating future public policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trexler, M.C.; Kosloff, L.H.; Gowen, M.

1994-01-01

Carbon offsets offer CO 2 emitters the opportunity to compensate for some proportion of their CO 2 emissions through the pursuit of emissions reduction or carbon sequestration projects beyond their own operational boundaries. The flexibility to pursue carbon offsets ''off-site'' can dramatically reduce the costs of achieving a given net emissions reduction. The future role of carbon offsets, however, continues to be a topic of considerable debate. Several processes are currently under way nationally and internationally that will help shape this role. This paper discusses how alternative policy outcomes could encourage or restrict the viability of carbon offsets as a component of corporate climate change mitigation portfolios and proposes criteria by which projects should be evaluated prior to the finalization of national or international policy frameworks. Based on these outcomes, the potential for offsets could be very large or very modest. It is vital that policy development in the offset arena account for the still voluntary nature of mitigation efforts and that the objective of climate change mitigation not be forgotten in the push for offset rules and regulations. At the same time, carbon offsets are far from a panacea for climate change mitigation and should be evaluated in the context of a larger global mitigation portfolio

The True Cost of Electric Power. An Inventory of Methodologies to Support Future Decision-making in Comparing the Cost and Competitiveness of Electricity Generation Technologies. Summary for policy-makers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burtraw, Dallas; Krupnick, Alan

2012-06-01

In energy markets across the world, market prices for fossil fuels are often lower than the prices of energy generated from renewable sources, such as solar, wind, and bio-fuels. These market prices, however, don't take into account the 'true costs' of the energy being sold, because they ignore the external costs to society caused by pollution and its resulting burdens, including damages to public health and the environment. Accounting for these externalities can as much as double the cost of some fossil fuels and, in some cases, make them more expensive than renewables. Because renewable forms of energy have far lower external costs than energy generated from fossil fuels, if one can implement policies that incorporate those costs into the price of electricity generated from all technologies, the playing field levels out and renewables can compete on a more fair and economically justified basis. The challenge, of course, is determining those 'true costs'. Estimating the true costs of electricity generation is both complex and controversial. It is complex because it must take into account several factors, including the population density near a power plant, the fuel it uses, and its pollution abatement technology. It is controversial because it requires assumptions and decisions to be made that the public does not like or does not understand. These include monetizing some types of risks (for example, to health) and ignoring others, such as occupational risks from coal mining when they are already 'internalized' by the coal company in the wages it pays. Finally, these approaches are certain to be controversial because they can affect billions of dollars in investments in electricity generation. This report, The True Cost of Electric Power, examines the various methods that have been used to measure such 'true' costs and looks at how such estimates can be used in company decision-making and public policy to ensure that

Impact of future price increase on ordering policies for deteriorating items under quadratic demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nita H. Shah

2016-06-01

Full Text Available When a supplier announces a price increase at a certain time in the future, for each retailer it is important to choose whether to purchase supplementary stock to take benefit of the current lower price or procure at a new price. This article focuses on the possible effects of price increase on a retailer’s replenishment strategy for constant deterioration of items. Here, quadratic demand is debated; which is appropriate for the products for which demand increases initially and subsequently it starts to decrease with the new version of the substitute. We discuss two scenarios in this study: (I when the special order time coincides with the retailer’s replenishment time and (II when the special order time falls during the retailer’s sales period. We determine an optimal ordering policy for each case by maximizing total cost savings between special and regular orders during the depletion time of the special order quantity. Scenarios are established and illustrated with numerical examples. Through, sensitivity analysis important inventory parameters are classified. Graphical results, in two and three dimensions, are exhibited with supervisory decision.

Renewable electricity production costs-A framework to assist policy-makers' decisions on price support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dinica, Valentina

2011-01-01

Despite recent progress, the production costs for renewable electricity remain above those for conventional power. Expectations of continuous reductions in production costs, typically underpin governments' policies for financial support. They often draw on the technology-focused versions of the Experience Curve model. This paper discusses how national-contextual factors also have a strong influence on production costs, such as geographic, infrastructural, institutional, and resource factors. As technologies mature, and as they reach significant levels of diffusion nationally, sustained increases in production costs might be recorded, due to these nationally contextual factors, poorly accounted for in policy-making decisions for price support. The paper suggests an analytical framework for a more comprehensive understanding of production costs. Based on this, it recommends that the evolution of specific cost levels and factors be monitored to locate 'sources of changes'. The paper also suggests policy instruments that governments may use to facilitate cost decreases, whenever possible. The application of the framework is illustrated for the diffusion of wind power in Spain during the past three decades. - Highlights: → Models, frameworks for policy-making on price support for renewable electricity production costs. → Policy instruments to help reduce production costs. → Limits to the influence of policies of production costs reductions.

Climate policy in India: what shapes international, national and state policy?

Science.gov (United States)

Atteridge, Aaron; Shrivastava, Manish Kumar; Pahuja, Neha; Upadhyay, Himani

2012-01-01

At the international level, India is emerging as a key actor in climate negotiations, while at the national and sub-national levels, the climate policy landscape is becoming more active and more ambitious. It is essential to unravel this complex landscape if we are to understand why policy looks the way it does, and the extent to which India might contribute to a future international framework for tackling climate change as well as how international parties might cooperate with and support India's domestic efforts. Drawing on both primary and secondary data, this paper analyzes the material and ideational drivers that are most strongly influencing policy choices at different levels, from international negotiations down to individual states. We argue that at each level of decision making in India, climate policy is embedded in wider policy concerns. In the international realm, it is being woven into broader foreign policy strategy, while domestically, it is being shaped to serve national and sub-national development interests. While our analysis highlights some common drivers at all levels, it also finds that their influences over policy are not uniform across the different arenas, and in some cases, they work in different ways at different levels of policy. We also indicate what this may mean for the likely acceptability within India of various climate policies being pushed at the international level.

The Devil Is in the Details: Linking Home Buyout Policy, Practice, and Experience After Hurricane Sandy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sherri Brokopp Binder

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Federal housing recovery policy bounds many of the decisions made by households after a disaster. Within this policy domain, home buyout programs are increasingly used to encourage residents to permanently relocate out of areas considered at risk for future hazards. While buyouts offer homeowners and governments potential benefits, research exploring the impacts of these policies is limited. In this paper, we present an in-depth examination of the community experience of buyouts, a perspective that is noticeably lacking in the literature. Using data from two mixed-method empirical studies, we explored the implications of buyout program design and implementation for Oakwood Beach, New York, a community offered a buyout after Hurricane Sandy. We found that  design decisions made at program conception significantly impacted participants’ experience of the buyout, including their understanding of program goals and their progression through the buyout and relocation process. We conclude with recommendations for future buyouts, including increased inclusion of affected communities in the process of and pre-event planning for recovery, along with recommendations for future research.

Towards the sustainable energy system. The future of the transition policy for energy and environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruggink, J.J.C.

2006-11-01

Inaugural speech at the occasion of the acceptance of the office for Energy Transition and Sustainable Development at the Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences of the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam, Netherlands, November 21, 2006. The transition policy in the Netherlands towards a sustainable energy supply system succeeded in creating a basis in the Dutch society, although at the cost of making clear choices with regard to concrete projects, new policy tools and financial means. In order to accelerate those choices the Dutch government needs to take decisive measures [nl

Future buildings Forum-2025: Toward a methodology for future buildings research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Briggs, R.S.

1990-10-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore methods that could be used in studying buildings of the future. The methodology that the forum will develop will have a number of likely applications, among them: the development of research agendas for new building energy technologies; the development of information and analytical capabilities usable by other IEA annexes to address their technology assessment needs; and the generation of information that can serve as input to global energy models designed to inform energy policy decisions. This paper is divided into two major sections. The first is an overview of existing methods of futures research. Terms and concepts are explained, providing the basis for the second section. The second section proposes a framework and general methodology for studying future buildings. This preliminary, or strawman, methodology is intended to provoke early thinking and discussions on how the research should be approached. 24 refs., 8 figs.

The Future of Computerized Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

2014-12-01

professionals will be becoming more adept at scripting, modeling, graphical and statistical displays. Decision makers may, similarly, be less likely to shy...elsewhere in this proceedings (Sanchez 2014) simulation can be the core for model-driven big data and inferential decision-making. We need to stake... descriptive , not prescriptive.” In our field, we deal with prospective decision making. We have an advantage in this area: since our output data are

Science, Policy, and Rationality in a Partisan Era

Science.gov (United States)

Kirchner, J. W.

2017-12-01

Science plays an essential role in public policy by outlining the factual foundations of policy decisions. Political partisans, however, often use science the way drunkards use lampposts: for support rather than illumination. Thus science can become a political football, with partisans dismissing or misrepresenting scientific findings that conflict with their political views. Presenting and defending science in a highly charged political environment is therefore challenging. Here I argue that scientists can most effectively speak out, not as activists supporting particular political causes, but instead as advocates for a fundamentally rational public discourse, one that starts from the facts - not from whatever one might choose to believe - and then explores how society should respond. Recognizing the distinction between facts and values, and respecting their different roles in the policy process, are essential not only for the future of science, but also for the future of democratic institutions in the broadest sense.

Risk perception as a factor in policy and decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sjoberg, L.

2004-01-01

Risk perception is often believed to be an important factor in policy decision making, when it comes to the management of hazardous technology. Research on risk perception by the public since the 1970's has purportedly shown that such perception is emotional and based on ignorance. Experts, on the other hand, have been claimed to be objective and correct in their risk assessments. The present paper reviews a large body of research which has led to a quite different conclusions, viz. that emotions play only a marginal role in risk perception, which is mainly driven by ideological concerns and attitudes. The methodological shortcomings of the prevailing view of risk perception as emotional and simply misinformed are described. (author)

An Overview of the Future Development of Climate and Earth System Models for Scientific and Policy Use (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Washington, W. M.

2010-12-01

The development of climate and earth system models has been regarded primarily as the making of scientific tools to study the complex nature of the Earth’s climate. These models have a long history starting with very simple physical models based on fundamental physics in the 1960s and over time they have become much more complex with atmospheric, ocean, sea ice, land/vegetation, biogeochemical, glacial and ecological components. The policy use aspects of these models did not start in the 1960s and 1970s as decision making tools but were used to answer fundamental scientific questions such as what happens when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increases or is doubled. They gave insights into the various interactions and were extensively compared with observations. It was realized that models of the earlier time periods could only give first order answers to many of the fundamental policy questions. As societal concerns about climate change rose, the policy questions of anthropogenic climate change became better defined; they were mostly concerned with the climate impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land cover change. In the late 1980s, the United Nations set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to perform assessments of the published literature. Thus, the development of climate and Earth system models became intimately linked to the need to not only improve our scientific understanding but also answering fundamental policy questions. In order to meet this challenge, the models became more complex and realistic so that they could address these policy oriented science questions such as rising sea level. The presentation will discuss the past and future development of global climate and earth system models for science and policy purposes. Also to be discussed is their interactions with economic integrated assessment models, regional and specialized models such as river transport or ecological components. As an example of one

Green electricity policy in the Netherlands. An analysis of policy decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rooijen, Sascha van; Wees, Mark van

2003-01-01

Over the last decades, fundamental changes in both market conditions and the national and international policy framework in the Netherlands can be observed. The Dutch Government has intervened in markets regularly, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. The following conclusions can be drawn on the policy choices: First, the objectives and targets of Dutch renewable energy policy were frequently ambiguous. Although the government emphasised the importance of investments in local capacity, imports were always (implicitly) seen as an alternative option in meeting targets. Second, for a long period the government focused on reducing investment costs and dismantling administrative barriers. Only recently has the lack of a stable investment climate been identified as a potential barrier. Third, although many stakeholders have advocated a mandatory approach, Dutch policies stimulating renewable energy have always been voluntary. Finally, the Ministry of Economic Affairs has always played a very dominant role in renewable energy policy formulation and implementation, which may explain the fact that some unfavourable market reactions to policies have not been foreseen. (author)

Divestment prevails over the green paradox when anticipating strong future climate policies

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Nico; McGlade, Christophe; Hilaire, Jérôme; Ekins, Paul

2018-01-01

Fossil fuel market dynamics will have a significant impact on the effectiveness of climate policies1. Both fossil fuel owners and investors in fossil fuel infrastructure are sensitive to climate policies that threaten their natural resource endowments and production capacities2-4, which will consequently affect their near-term behaviour. Although weak in near-term policy commitments5,6, the Paris Agreement on climate7 signalled strong ambitions in climate change stabilization. Many studies emphasize that the 2 °C target can still be achieved even if strong climate policies are delayed until 20308-10. However, sudden implementation will have severe consequences for fossil fuel markets and beyond and these studies ignore the anticipation effects of owners and investors. Here we use two energy-economy models to study the collective influence of the two central but opposing anticipation arguments, the green paradox11 and the divestment effect12, which have, to date, been discussed only separately. For a wide range of future climate policies, we find that anticipation effects, on balance, reduce CO2 emissions during the implementation lag. This is because of strong divestment in coal power plants starting ten years ahead of policy implementation. The green paradox effect is identified, but is small under reasonable assumptions.

Economics of climate policy and collective decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buergenmeier, B.; Ferrier, C.; Ingold, K.; Perret, S.; Baranzini, A.; Germond-Duret, C.; Kypreos, S.; Wokaun, A.; Rafaj, P.

2006-01-01

This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context

Probabilistic Decision Based Block Partitioning for Future Video Coding

KAUST Repository

Wang, Zhao

2017-11-29

In the latest Joint Video Exploration Team development, the quadtree plus binary tree (QTBT) block partitioning structure has been proposed for future video coding. Compared to the traditional quadtree structure of High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) standard, QTBT provides more flexible patterns for splitting the blocks, which results in dramatically increased combinations of block partitions and high computational complexity. In view of this, a confidence interval based early termination (CIET) scheme is proposed for QTBT to identify the unnecessary partition modes in the sense of rate-distortion (RD) optimization. In particular, a RD model is established to predict the RD cost of each partition pattern without the full encoding process. Subsequently, the mode decision problem is casted into a probabilistic framework to select the final partition based on the confidence interval decision strategy. Experimental results show that the proposed CIET algorithm can speed up QTBT block partitioning structure by reducing 54.7% encoding time with only 1.12% increase in terms of bit rate. Moreover, the proposed scheme performs consistently well for the high resolution sequences, of which the video coding efficiency is crucial in real applications.

History-sensitive versus future-sensitive approaches to security in distributed systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hernandez, Alejandro Mario; Nielson, Flemming

2010-01-01

We consider the use of aspect oriented techniques as a flexible way to deal with security policies in distributed systems. Recent work suggests to use aspects for analysing the future behaviour of programs and to make access control decisions based on this; this gives the flavour of dealing...

Bibliometrics as a Tool for Supporting Prospective R&D Decision-Making in the Health Sciences: Strengths, Weaknesses and Options for Future Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, Sharif; Nason, Edward; Marjanovic, Sonja; Grant, Jonathan

2012-01-01

Bibliometric analysis is an increasingly important part of a broader "toolbox" of evaluation methods available to research and development (R&D) policymakers to support decision-making. In the US, UK and Australia, for example, there is evidence of gradual convergence over the past ten years towards a model of university research assessment and ranking incorporating the use of bibliometric measures. In Britain, the Department of Health (England) has shown growing interest in using bibliometric analysis to support prospective R&D decision-making, and has engaged RAND Europe's expertise in this area through a number of exercises since 2005. These range from the macro-level selection of potentially high impact institutions, to micro-level selection of high impact individuals for the National Institute for Health Research's faculty of researchers. The aim of this study is to create an accessible, "beginner's guide" to bibliometric theory and application in the area of health R&D decision-making. The study also aims to identify future directions and possible next steps in this area, based on RAND Europe's work with the Department of Health to date. It is targeted at a range of audiences, and will be of interest to health and biomedical researchers, as well as R&D decision-makers in the UK and elsewhere. The study was completed with funding support from RAND Europe's Health R&D Policy Research Unit with the Department of Health.

Green electricity policies in the Netherlands: an analysis of policy decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rooijen, Sascha N.M. van; Wees, Mark T. van

2006-01-01

Over the last decades, fundamental changes can be observed in both market conditions and the national policy framework for green electricity in the Netherlands. The Dutch Government has regularly intervened in markets, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders, and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. Dutch green electricity policy over the last decade can be characterised roughly by three phases: in the early 1990s, the government negotiated voluntary agreements with the energy distribution sector on targets for green electricity sales, which were never met. In the second half of the 1990s, a regulatory energy tax was introduced, from which customers of green electricity were exempt. This led to a substantial increase in demand, which was largely met by green electricity imports, and did not lead to additional domestic renewable energy capacity. Finally, a change in policy has taken place recently (2003) shifting the focus from promotion of demand to the promotion of supply through a system of regulated feed-in tariffs. Despite the renewable energy policies, growth of the renewable energy market in the Netherlands has been small and targets have not been fully met. The Dutch government has not yet succeeded in substantially reducing market uncertainties and in building confidence among market parties, because the policies have not been stable and policy objectives have frequently been partly ambiguous. In addition, the influence of stakeholders in renewable energy policy making has been small which has the early acceptance and implementation of alternative policies

The future of European health policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Koivusalo, Meri Tuulikki

2005-01-01

The role of the European Union in health policies is changing. The European social model is under threat due to shifts in E.U. policies on liberalization of service provision, limited public budgets, a focus on the health sector as a productive sector in the context of broader European policies and the Lisbon strategy, and changes in the context of the new Constitutional Treaty. These changes are evident in a new reflection paper on European health strategy and its focus. E.U. health policies are at a critical juncture. The danger is that the current processes will lead European health policies and the health systems of member states more in the direction of U.S. health policies and the commercialization of health systems than toward improvement of the current situation.

Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between...... benefited from general advances in health economic modelling and some improvements in reporting were noted. However, the low level of agreement between studies in model structures and assumptions, and difficulty in justifying these (convergent validity), remain a threat to the credibility of health economic...... models. Decision-makers should not accept the results of a modelling study if the methods are not fully transparent and justified. Modellers should, whenever relevant, supplement a primary report of results with a technical report detailing and discussing the methodological choices made....

Rapid review programs to support health care and policy decision making: a descriptive analysis of processes and methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Polisena, Julie; Garritty, Chantelle; Kamel, Chris; Stevens, Adrienne; Abou-Setta, Ahmed M

2015-03-14

Health care decision makers often need to make decisions in limited timeframes and cannot await the completion of a full evidence review. Rapid reviews (RRs), utilizing streamlined systematic review methods, are increasingly being used to synthesize the evidence with a shorter turnaround time. Our primary objective was to describe the processes and methods used internationally to produce RRs. In addition, we sought to understand the underlying themes associated with these programs. We contacted representatives of international RR programs from a broad realm in health care to gather information about the methods and processes used to produce RRs. The responses were summarized narratively to understand the characteristics associated with their processes and methods. The summaries were compared and contrasted to highlight potential themes and trends related to the different RR programs. Twenty-nine international RR programs were included in our sample with a broad organizational representation from academia, government, research institutions, and non-for-profit organizations. Responses revealed that the main objectives for RRs were to inform decision making with regards to funding health care technologies, services and policy, and program development. Central themes that influenced the methods used by RR programs, and report type and dissemination were the imposed turnaround time to complete a report, resources available, the complexity and sensitivity of the research topics, and permission from the requestor. Our study confirmed that there is no standard approach to conduct RRs. Differences in processes and methods across programs may be the result of the novelty of RR methods versus other types of evidence syntheses, customization of RRs for various decision makers, and definition of 'rapid' by organizations, since it impacts both the timelines and the evidence synthesis methods. Future research should investigate the impact of current RR methods and reporting to

DECISION-MAKING ALIGNED WITH RAPID-CYCLE EVALUATION IN HEALTH CARE.

Science.gov (United States)

Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Shrank, William H; Ruhl, Michael; Maclure, Malcolm

2015-01-01

Availability of real-time electronic healthcare data provides new opportunities for rapid-cycle evaluation (RCE) of health technologies, including healthcare delivery and payment programs. We aim to align decision-making processes with stages of RCE to optimize the usefulness and impact of rapid results. Rational decisions about program adoption depend on program effect size in relation to externalities, including implementation cost, sustainability, and likelihood of broad adoption. Drawing on case studies and experience from drug safety monitoring, we examine how decision makers have used scientific evidence on complex interventions in the past. We clarify how RCE alters the nature of policy decisions; develop the RAPID framework for synchronizing decision-maker activities with stages of RCE; and provide guidelines on evidence thresholds for incremental decision-making. In contrast to traditional evaluations, RCE provides early evidence on effectiveness and facilitates a stepped approach to decision making in expectation of future regularly updated evidence. RCE allows for identification of trends in adjusted effect size. It supports adapting a program in midstream in response to interim findings, or adapting the evaluation strategy to identify true improvements earlier. The 5-step RAPID approach that utilizes the cumulating evidence of program effectiveness over time could increase policy-makers' confidence in expediting decisions. RCE enables a step-wise approach to HTA decision-making, based on gradually emerging evidence, reducing delays in decision-making processes after traditional one-time evaluations.

Future Costs, Fixed Healthcare Budgets, and the Decision Rules of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

van Baal, Pieter; Meltzer, David; Brouwer, Werner

2016-02-01

Life-saving medical technologies result in additional demand for health care due to increased life expectancy. However, most economic evaluations do not include all medical costs that may result from this additional demand in health care and include only future costs of related illnesses. Although there has been much debate regarding the question to which extent future costs should be included from a societal perspective, the appropriate role of future medical costs in the widely adopted but more narrow healthcare perspective has been neglected. Using a theoretical model, we demonstrate that optimal decision rules for cost-effectiveness analyses assuming fixed healthcare budgets dictate that future costs of both related and unrelated medical care should be included. Practical relevance of including the costs of future unrelated medical care is illustrated using the example of transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Our findings suggest that guidelines should prescribe inclusion of these costs. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A brief history of economic evaluation for human papillomavirus vaccination policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Beutels, Philippe; Jit, Mark

2010-09-01

This commentary discusses key issues for health economic evaluation and modelling, applied to human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine programs. We outline some of the specific features of HPV disease and vaccination, and associated policy questions in light of a literature search for economic evaluations on HPV vaccination. We observe that some policy questions could not be reliably addressed by many of the 43 published economic evaluations we found. Despite this, policy making on universal HPV vaccination followed shortly after vaccine licensure in many developed countries, so the role economic evaluation played in informing these decisions (pre-dating 2008) seems to have been fairly limited. For more recent decisions, however, economic evaluation is likely to have been used more widely and more intensively. We expect future cost-effectiveness analyses to be more instrumental in policy making regarding vaccines covering more HPV types, therapeutic HPV vaccines, and novel diagnostic tests for biomarkers of HPV infection and disease integrated with cervical screening programs.

What defines 'enough' information? How policy workers make judgements and decisions during information seeking: preliminary results from an exploratory study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.M. Berryman

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. Reports findings from research in progress investigating judgment and decision making during information seeking in the workplace, in particular, the assessment of enough information. Characteristics of this judgment and the role of context in shaping it are framed against theories of human judgment and decision making. Method. Thirty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted with public sector policy workers in Australia. Two interviews were carried out, the first with individual participants and the second, a joint interview with two participants. Interviews were taped and transcribed and inductive data analysis carried out. Findings. Findings discussed in this paper focus on contextual factors that frame policy workers' judgment and decision making while information seeking, factors including ill-structured problems, shifting goals, time stress and action-feedback loops. Also revealed was the importance of developing a framework, against which the judgment of enough information can be made, and the fluid and iterative nature of these judgments. Conclusion. The contextual factors reported show similarities with those identified by naturalistic decision making researchers, suggesting this new field of decision theory has much to offer researchers into information seeking in context.

A tool for rapid assessment of erosion risk to support decision-making and policy development at the Ngenge watershed in Uganda

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mutekanga, F.P.; Visser, S.M.; Stroosnijder, L.

2010-01-01

This study tests a rapid, user-friendly method for assessing changes in erosion risk, which yields information to aid policy development and decision-making for sustainable natural resources management. There is currently a lack of timely, up-to-date and current information to support policy

Optimal policy for value-based decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Tajima, Satohiro; Drugowitsch, Jan; Pouget, Alexandre

2016-08-18

For decades now, normative theories of perceptual decisions, and their implementation as drift diffusion models, have driven and significantly improved our understanding of human and animal behaviour and the underlying neural processes. While similar processes seem to govern value-based decisions, we still lack the theoretical understanding of why this ought to be the case. Here, we show that, similar to perceptual decisions, drift diffusion models implement the optimal strategy for value-based decisions. Such optimal decisions require the models' decision boundaries to collapse over time, and to depend on the a priori knowledge about reward contingencies. Diffusion models only implement the optimal strategy under specific task assumptions, and cease to be optimal once we start relaxing these assumptions, by, for example, using non-linear utility functions. Our findings thus provide the much-needed theory for value-based decisions, explain the apparent similarity to perceptual decisions, and predict conditions under which this similarity should break down.

Health and Aging Policy Fellows Program: Shaping a Healthy Future for Older Americans.

Science.gov (United States)

Pincus, Harold Alan; Pike, Kathleen M; Spaeth-Rublee, Brigitta; Elinson, Lynn

2017-09-01

As the size of the elderly population increases, so do the challenges of and barriers to high-quality, affordable health care. The Health and Aging Policy Fellows (HAPF) Program is designed to provide health and aging professionals with the skills and experience to help lead the effort in reducing these barriers and shaping a healthy and productive future for older Americans. Since its inception in 2008, the program has affected not only the fellows who participate, but also the field of health and aging policy. Work needs to be done to sustain this program so that more fellows can participate and sound policies for the elderly population can continue to be shaped and improved. This report describes the HAPF Program, including its background (rationale, description, partners, progress, effect), lessons learned, challenges and solutions, and policy implications. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

Applying Spatial Indicators to Support Sustainable Urban Futures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petrov, Laura Oana; Shahumyan, Harutyun; Williams, Brendan

2013-01-01

structural analysis, FRAGSTATS, and ArcGIS software packages. The developed indicators form a valuable and complementary addition to the planning and policy process due to their interdisciplinary and practical nature. They were elaborated based on discussions with scientists, policy-makers and stakeholders......Indicators are helpful tools for land use management, particularly in the context of sustainable urban development. Together with scenarios they are a key requirement in order to produce information for stakeholders and policy-makers and aid their understanding of development processes. Using...... these information products and tools, policy-makers can be given the opportunity to spatially interrogate the driving forces and the current state of urban development. Understanding how trends will develop in the future and the possible impacts of their decisions on the development process is vital...

Decision Strategy Research: Policy Support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardeman, F.

2000-01-01

The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategy research are (1) to support and advise the Belgian authorities on specific problems concerning existing and potential hazards from exposure to ionising radiation, both in normal and emergency situations; (2) to perform research on relevant topics that might have an important impact on decision making related to nuclear applications, including social and economic sciences. Main achievements in this area in 1999 are described

A methodology and decision support tool for informing state-level bioenergy policymaking: New Jersey biofuels as a case study

Science.gov (United States)

Brennan-Tonetta, Margaret

This dissertation seeks to provide key information and a decision support tool that states can use to support long-term goals of fossil fuel displacement and greenhouse gas reductions. The research yields three outcomes: (1) A methodology that allows for a comprehensive and consistent inventory and assessment of bioenergy feedstocks in terms of type, quantity, and energy potential. Development of a standardized methodology for consistent inventorying of biomass resources fosters research and business development of promising technologies that are compatible with the state's biomass resource base. (2) A unique interactive decision support tool that allows for systematic bioenergy analysis and evaluation of policy alternatives through the generation of biomass inventory and energy potential data for a wide variety of feedstocks and applicable technologies, using New Jersey as a case study. Development of a database that can assess the major components of a bioenergy system in one tool allows for easy evaluation of technology, feedstock and policy options. The methodology and decision support tool is applicable to other states and regions (with location specific modifications), thus contributing to the achievement of state and federal goals of renewable energy utilization. (3) Development of policy recommendations based on the results of the decision support tool that will help to guide New Jersey into a sustainable renewable energy future. The database developed in this research represents the first ever assessment of bioenergy potential for New Jersey. It can serve as a foundation for future research and modifications that could increase its power as a more robust policy analysis tool. As such, the current database is not able to perform analysis of tradeoffs across broad policy objectives such as economic development vs. CO2 emissions, or energy independence vs. source reduction of solid waste. Instead, it operates one level below that with comparisons of kWh or

NATO's requirements and policy for LRTNF

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, L.E.

1994-01-01

In a special meeting of Foreign and Defense Ministers, the NATO alliance on 12 December 1979 decided to modernize its long range theater nuclear forces (LRTNF) through the deployment in Europe of 572 Pershing II and ground launched cruise missiles (GLCM). This decision was accompanied by an offer from the US to the U.S.S.R. to negotiate limitations on these LRTNF which would be global, equal, and verifiable. The story of NATO's dual-track decision as well as the INF Treaty is well chronicled. What is missing is a detailed study of the processes within the US government and the NATO alliance by which the LRTNF decisions were made. The role that analysis played, and the lessons that can be drawn for future policies on NATO's theater nuclear forces are discussed

Towards increased policy relevance in energy modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Worrell, Ernst; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale

2003-07-29

Historically, most energy models were reasonably equipped to assess the impact of a subsidy or change in taxation, but are often insufficient to assess the impact of more innovative policy instruments. We evaluate the models used to assess future energy use, focusing on industrial energy use. We explore approaches to engineering-economic analysis that could help improve the realism and policy relevance of engineering-economic modeling frameworks. We also explore solutions to strengthen the policy usefulness of engineering-economic analysis that can be built from a framework of multi-disciplinary cooperation. We focus on the so-called ''engineering-economic'' (or ''bottom-up'') models, as they include the amount of detail that is commonly needed to model policy scenarios. We identify research priorities for the modeling framework, technology representation in models, policy evaluation and modeling of decision-making behavior.

Tools and techniques for developing policies for complex and uncertain systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Bankes, Steven C

2002-05-14

Agent-based models (ABM) are examples of complex adaptive systems, which can be characterized as those systems for which no model less complex than the system itself can accurately predict in detail how the system will behave at future times. Consequently, the standard tools of policy analysis, based as they are on devising policies that perform well on some best estimate model of the system, cannot be reliably used for ABM. This paper argues that policy analysis by using ABM requires an alternative approach to decision theory. The general characteristics of such an approach are described, and examples are provided of its application to policy analysis.

Dynamic and adaptive policy models for coalition operations

Science.gov (United States)

Verma, Dinesh; Calo, Seraphin; Chakraborty, Supriyo; Bertino, Elisa; Williams, Chris; Tucker, Jeremy; Rivera, Brian; de Mel, Geeth R.

2017-05-01

It is envisioned that the success of future military operations depends on the better integration, organizationally and operationally, among allies, coalition members, inter-agency partners, and so forth. However, this leads to a challenging and complex environment where the heterogeneity and dynamism in the operating environment intertwines with the evolving situational factors that affect the decision-making life cycle of the war fighter. Therefore, the users in such environments need secure, accessible, and resilient information infrastructures where policy-based mechanisms adopt the behaviours of the systems to meet end user goals. By specifying and enforcing a policy based model and framework for operations and security which accommodates heterogeneous coalitions, high levels of agility can be enabled to allow rapid assembly and restructuring of system and information resources. However, current prevalent policy models (e.g., rule based event-condition-action model and its variants) are not sufficient to deal with the highly dynamic and plausibly non-deterministic nature of these environments. Therefore, to address the above challenges, in this paper, we present a new approach for policies which enables managed systems to take more autonomic decisions regarding their operations.

Deploying Renewables: Principles for Effective Policies. Executive Summary [Russian Version

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

Renewable energy can play a fundamental role in tackling climate change, environmental degradation and energy security. As these challenges have become ever more pressing, governments and markets are seeking innovative solutions. Yet, what are the key factors that will determine the success of renewable energy policies? How can current policies be improved to encourage greater deployment of renewables? What impact can more effective policies have on renewables’ share in the future global energy mix and how soon? Deploying Renewables: Principles for Effective Policies addresses these questions. Responding to the Gleneagles G8 call for a clean and secure energy future, it highlights key policy tools to fast-track renewables into the mainstream. This analysis illustrates good practices by applying the combined metrics of effectiveness and efficiency to renewable energy policies in the electricity, heating and transport sectors. It highlights significant barriers to accelerating renewables penetration, and argues that the great potential of renewables can be exploited much more rapidly and to a much larger extent if good practices are adopted. Carefully designed policy frameworks, customised to support technologies at differing stages of maturity, will deliver a strong portfolio of renewable energy technologies. Deploying Renewables: Principles for Effective Policies provides recommendations on key principles for policy design as a template for decision makers.

Energy policies of IEA countries. Sweden 1996 review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

This IEA report provides a comprehensive, in-depth assessment of the energy policies of Sweden, including recommendations on future policy developments. Electricity is a focal point of Sweden's energy policy. After a shift in the energy mix to favour electricity in the early 1970's, nuclear and hydro power each make up about half of the electricity supply. Two key events have occurred since then: the 1980 referendum, which calls for the phase-out of all nuclear plants by 2010; the recent restructuring and liberalization of the electricity sector with the creation of a Nordic electricity market. In this context, the report argues the case for making a decision now on the nuclear issue to clarify Sweden's electricity future. Other key issues highlighted in the report include Sweden's use of economic policy instruments such as a carbon tax to achieve energy and environment goals, and the adequacy and effectiveness of government efforts to promote biofuels and energy efficiency. This report forms part of a series of periodic in-depth reviews conducted and discussed by the IEA Member countries on a four-year cycle. Short reviews of energy policy developments in all twenty-three Member countries are published annually in Energy Policies of IEA Countries. (author). 13 figs., 9 tabs., 4 appends

Forest Science and forest policy in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East: Building Bridges to a sustainable future

Science.gov (United States)

Richard W. Guldin; Niels Elers Koch; John A. Parrotta; Christian Gamborg; Bo J. Thorsen

2004-01-01

Making forest policies that help bridge from the current situation to a sustainable future requires sound scientific information. Too often, scientific information is available, yet policy makers do not use it. At a workshop in Denmark, attendees reviewed case studies where forest science influenced forest policies and identified six major reasons for success. Three...

State of the environment reporting (SOER) and the policy process in South Africa: Learing for the future

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Will, C

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Environmental policy and decision making has undergone several changes in recent times, and in today’s society is influenced by amongst others two key movements; the rise of an informational society and the increasing priority of environmental...

Tools to Help Society in Decision Making: Legal and Policy Trends. Proceedings of a Topical Session

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vari, Anna; Caddy, Joanne; ); Kotra, Janet P.; Pancher, Bertrand; Tromans, Stephan

2009-01-01

As part of its programme of work the OECD/NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence continues to investigate the theme of 'Tools and Processes to Help Society in Decision Making'. Following a presentation in June 2007 of environmental law and its implications for stakeholder involvement in decision making, the FSC decided to take a look at a variety of legal and policy issues. In particular, interest was expressed in seeing how law and policy may define which stakeholders must be consulted or engaged, and to consider when and whether that is helpful. A topical session was held on June 5, 2008 during the FSC's ninth regular meeting. Case studies were presented from the US, the UK, and France. An international survey of means for open and inclusive policy making was presented by the OECD Government directorate. The results of a questionnaire filled by FSC members served as the basis of the introductory presentation. Two sub-groups retired to discuss the material and a Rapporteur from each delivered feedback in plenary. These proceedings include a summary of the findings and discussions (Anna Vari), and the slides (some with accompanying text) provided for each case study: 1 - Open and Inclusive Policy Making: Emerging Practice in OECD Countries (Joanne Caddy); 2 - Deciding Whether to Authorized Construction at Yucca Mountain Explaining NRC's Process (Janet P. Kotra); 3 - Rights and Obligations under International Conventions (Stephan Tromans); 4 - Setting Criteria for the Representativeness of NGO/CSOs: Report on Hearings at the Request of France's Prime Minister (Bertrand Pancher)

The impact of negative childbirth experience on future reproductive decisions: A quantitative systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Shorey, Shefaly; Yang, Yen Yen; Ang, Emily

2018-06-01

The aim of this study was to systematically retrieve, critique and synthesize available evidence regarding the association between negative childbirth experiences and future reproductive decisions. A child's birth is often a joyous event; however, there is a proportion of women who undergo negative childbirth experiences that have long-term implications on their reproductive decisions. A systematic review of quantitative studies was undertaken using Joanna Briggs Institute's methods. A search was carried out in CINAHL Plus with Full Text, Embase, PsycINFO, PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science from January 1996 - July 2016. Studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria were assessed by two independent reviewers using the Joanna Briggs Institute's Critical Appraisal Tools. Data were extracted under subheadings adapted from the institute's data extraction forms. Twelve studies, which examined either one or more influences of negative childbirth experiences, were identified. The included studies were either cohort or cross-sectional designs. Five studies observed positive associations between prior negative childbirth experiences and decisions to not have another child, three studies found positive associations between negative childbirth experiences and decisions to delay a subsequent birth and six studies concluded positive associations between negative childbirth experiences and maternal requests for caesarean section in subsequent pregnancies. To receive a holistic understanding on negative childbirth experiences, a suitable definition and validated measuring tools should be used to understand this phenomenon. Future studies or reviews should include a qualitative component and/or the exploration of specific factors such as cultural and regional differences that influence childbirth experiences. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

High level radioactive waste management policies and reflections of citizens' opinions in selected European countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagano, Koji

2002-01-01

This report considered on policy decision aiming at practice of landfill disposal and process at disposal site forward practice of high level radioactive wastes (HLWs) disposal by adopting Finland and Sweden, for examples among European countries showing their own efforts, to attempt to absorb some instructions for Japan planning to promote practice of unique process in future. As a result performing information collection and analysis at a center of surveys at sites, conclusion shown as follows were obtained: (1) Characteristics of nuclear policy decision making at Finland are confirmation of decision making based on decision in principle (DiP) procedure, participation of nations, especially congress, and high reliability of citizens to social systems. (2) At Oskarshamn in Sweden, positive efforts and decision making on disposal site problem are progressed as results of leading by local assembly, construction planning on decision making competence on HLWs, and planning preparation on presence of troubles and decision with responsibility to citizens. (3) As when promoting disposal site process, failure of loss on reliability relation brings large time and economical losses, for its success conditions, it was proposed that psychological refusal feelings of residents at sites on nuclear energy were small, the sites had some capacities and well-informed capable of understanding and judging on nuclear troubles, and decision not only present facility and trouble proposing construction, but also through discussion on future images for local society. (G.K.)

How Instructional Coaches Support Data-Driven Decision Making: Policy Implementation and Effects in Florida Middle Schools

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, Julie A.; McCombs, Jennifer Sloan; Martorell, Francisco

2010-01-01

This article examines the convergence of two popular school improvement policies: instructional coaching and data-driven decision making (DDDM). Drawing on a mixed methods study of a statewide reading coach program in Florida middle schools, the article examines how coaches support DDDM and how this support relates to student and teacher outcomes.…

Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

Science.gov (United States)

Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

2016-04-01

Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing

Women's perspectives on the ethical implications of non-invasive prenatal testing: a qualitative analysis to inform health policy decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanstone, Meredith; Cernat, Alexandra; Nisker, Jeff; Schwartz, Lisa

2018-04-16

Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing (NIPT) is a technology which provides information about fetal genetic characteristics (including sex) very early in pregnancy by examining fetal DNA obtained from a sample of maternal blood. NIPT is a morally complex technology that has advanced quickly to market with a strong push from industry developers, leaving many areas of uncertainty still to be resolved, and creating a strong need for health policy that reflects women's social and ethical values. We approach the need for ethical policy-making by studying the use of NIPT and emerging policy in the province of Ontario, Canada. Using an adapted version of constructivist grounded theory, we conducted interviews with 38 women who have had personal experiences with NIPT. We used an iterative process of data collection and analysis and a staged coding strategy to conduct a descriptive analysis of ethics issues identified implicitly and explicitly by women who have been affected by this technology. The findings of this paper focus on current ethical issues for women seeking NIPT, including place in the prenatal pathway, health care provider counselling about the test, industry influence on the diffusion of NIPT, consequences of availability of test results. Other issues gain relevance in the context of future policy decisions regarding NIPT, including funding of NIPT and principles that may govern the expansion of the scope of NIPT. These findings are not an exhaustive list of all the potential ethical issues related to NIPT, but rather a representation of the issues which concern women who have personal experience with this test. Women who have had personal experience with NIPT have concerns and priorities which sometimes contrast dramatically with the theoretical ethics literature. These findings suggest the importance of engaging patients in ethical deliberation about morally complex technologies, and point to the need for more deliberative patient engagement work in this area.

Nuclear power plants in past and future of Hungarian energy policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bueki, Gergely

2014-01-01

In the Hungarian electric power supply nuclear power plants are important and stay so. It is underpinned by the country's energy resources. Although building nuclear power plants is an enormous investment and the extension with new blocks costs a lot, electric power generated by NPP is the cheapest one and can remain the cheapest if rational decisions will be made. Building and operation Paks Nuclear Power Plant demands for high level professional culture in education, in planning, in industry, in research and in operations. With building new reactor blocks it is expected that energy policy, power plant engineering will renew, while new jobs are created and the economy growths. (TRA)

New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, R. J.

2015-12-01

Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

Energy policy decision making and public opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerstein, L.

1989-09-01

By the example of nuclear the author demonstrates the interactions of short-term fluctuations on the world energy market, energy forecasts, specific events and discussions on energy policy both within political parties and in the general public, and draws conclusions which are valid beyond the Federal Republic of Germany: An analysis of the general public's attitude towards nuclear energy shows two initial phases, i.e. euphoria and scepticism/ideology/agitation. The early eighties, then, led to a third phase - realism. Up to 1983 a consensus prevailed between the leading political parties in Germany regarding the basic energy-policy objective of minimizing the supply risk by providing for a well-balanced use of all available energy sources. The resulting attitude had a positive bearing on the public opinion: more than two thirds of the population were in favour of nuclear. In the mid-eighties, the development of nuclear was by and large completed in the Federal Republic of Germany as well as in the United States and other western industrialized countries and the capacity of nuclear power plants is considered sufficient for the years to come. In addition, abundant long-term reserves of domestic lignite and hardcoal are available: this also should have furnished a good reason to envisage calmly the issues of power supply. Instead, we are again facing emotional discussions on the acceptance of nuclear. Public opinion in the Federal Republic of Germany has changed since the Social Democrats followed the example of the Ecologists and advocated a rapid withdrawal from nuclear. In a recent poll four-fifths of the persons asked did not rule out the possibility of a major accident in a German power station. The wish to ignore today's energy supply problems by escaping into a supposedly safe but yet distant and vague future is part of every public debate. Technical and scientific issues are examined no longer in this global context. Predictions of experts and counter

Using deliberative techniques to engage the community in policy development.

Science.gov (United States)

Gregory, Judy; Hartz-Karp, Janette; Watson, Rebecca

2008-07-16

This paper examines work in deliberative approaches to community engagement used in Western Australia by the Department of Planning and Infrastructure and other planning and infrastructure agencies between 2001 and 2005, and considers whether the techniques could be applied to the development of health policy in Australia. Deliberative processes were used in WA to address specific planning and infrastructure problems. Using deliberative techniques, community participants contributed to joint decision making and policy development. Outcomes from deliberative processes were seriously considered by the Minister and used to influence policy decisions. In many cases, the recommendations generated through deliberative processes were fully adopted by the Minister. The experiences in WA demonstrate that deliberative engagement processes can be successfully implemented by government and can be used to guide policy. The techniques can be adapted to suit the context and issues experienced by a portfolio, and the skills required to conduct deliberative processes can be fostered amongst the portfolio's staff. Health policy makers may be able to learn from the experiences in WA, and adopt approaches to community engagement that allow for informed deliberation and debate in the community about the future of Australia's health system.

Uncertainty vs. learning in climate policy: Some classical results and new directions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lange, A. [Univ. of Maryland (United States); Treich, N. [Univ. of Toulouse (France)

2007-07-01

Climate policy decisions today have to be made under substantial uncertainty: the impact of accumulating greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is not perfectly known, the future economic and social consequences of climate change, in particular the valuation of possible damages, are uncertain. However, learning will change the basis of making future decisions on abatement policies. These important issues of uncertainty and learning are often presented in a colloquial sense. Two opposing effects are typically put forward: First, uncertainty about future climate damage, which is often associated with the possibility of a catastrophic scenario is said to give a premium to slow down global warming and therefore to increase abatement efforts today. Second learning opportunities will reduce scientific undertainty about climate damage over time. This is often used as an argument to postpone abatement efforts until new information is received. The effects of uncertainty and learning on the optimal design of current climate policy are still much debated both in the academic and the political arena. In this paper, the authors study and contrast the effect of uncertainty and learning in a two-decision model that encompasses most existing microeconomics models of climate change. They first consider the common expected utility framework: While uncertainty has generally no or a negative effect on welfare, learning has always a positive, and thus opposite, effect. The effects of both uncertainty and learning on decisions are less clear. Neither uncertainty nor learning can be used as an argument to increase or reduce emissions today, independently on the degree of risk aversion of the decision-marker and on the nature of irreversibility constraints. The authors then deviate from the expected utility framework and consider a model with ambiguity aversion. The model accounts well for situations of imprecise or multiple probability distributions, as present in the context of climate

Do evidence summaries increase policy-makers' use of evidence from systematic reviews: A systematic review protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

Petkovic, Jennifer; Welch, Vivian; Tugwell, Peter

2015-09-28

Systematic reviews are important for decision-makers. They offer many potential benefits but are often written in technical language, are too long, and do not contain contextual details which makes them hard to use for decision-making. There are many organizations that develop and disseminate derivative products, such as evidence summaries, from systematic reviews for different populations or subsets of decision-makers. This systematic review will assess the effectiveness of systematic review summaries on increasing policymakers' use of systematic review evidence and to identify the components or features of these summaries that are most effective. We will include studies of policy-makers at all levels as well as health-system managers. We will include studies examining any type of "evidence summary," "policy brief," or other products derived from systematic reviews that present evidence in a summarized form. The primary outcomes are the following: (1) use of systematic review summaries decision-making (e.g., self-reported use of the evidence in policy-making, decision-making) and (2) policy-maker understanding, knowledge, and/or beliefs (e.g., changes in knowledge scores about the topic included in the summary). We will conduct a systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), non-randomized controlled trials (NRCTs), controlled before-after studies (CBA), and interrupted time series (ITS) studies. The results of this review will inform the development of future systematic review summaries to ensure that systematic review evidence is accessible to and used by policy-makers making health-related decisions.

Introduction of new vaccines: decision-making process in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Uddin, Jasim; Sarma, Haribondhu; Bari, Tajul I; Koehlmoos, Tracey P

2013-06-01

The understanding of the decision-making process in the introduction of new vaccines helps establish why vaccines are adopted or not. It also contributes to building a sustainable demand for vaccines in a country. The purpose of the study was to map and analyze the formal decision-making process in relation to the introduction of new vaccines within the context of health policy and health systems and identify the ways of making decisions to introduce new vaccines in Bangladesh. During February-April 2011, a qualitative assessment was made at the national level to evaluate the decision-making process around the adoption of new vaccines in Bangladesh. The study population included: policy-level people, programme heads or associates, and key decision-makers of the Government, private sector, non-governmental organizations, and international agencies at the national level. In total, 13 key informants were purposively selected. Data were collected by interviewing key informants and reviewing documents. Data were analyzed thematically. The findings revealed that the actors from different sectors at the policy level were involved in the decision-making process in the introduction of new vaccines. They included policy-makers from the ministries of health and family welfare, finance, and local government and rural development; academicians; researchers; representatives from professional associations; development partners; and members of different committees on EPI. They contributed to the introduction of new vaccines in their own capacity. The burden of disease, research findings on vaccine-preventable diseases, political issues relating to outbreaks of certain diseases, initiatives of international and local stakeholders, pressure of development partners, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) support, and financial matters were the key factors in the introduction of new vaccines in Bangladesh. The slow introduction and uptake of new vaccines is a concern

Children's Participation in Decision-Making in the Philippines: Understanding the Attitudes of Policy-Makers and Service Providers

Science.gov (United States)

Bessell, Sharon

2009-01-01

This article explores the ideas about children's participation in decision-making held by government officials and non-government representatives engaged in promoting children's participation in the Philippines. It suggests that the ideas that policy-makers and service deliverers hold about children's participation are heterogeneous, diverse and…

A new approach to formulating and appraising drug policy: A multi-criterion decision analysis applied to alcohol and cannabis regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogeberg, Ole; Bergsvik, Daniel; Phillips, Lawrence D; van Amsterdam, Jan; Eastwood, Niamh; Henderson, Graeme; Lynskey, Micheal; Measham, Fiona; Ponton, Rhys; Rolles, Steve; Schlag, Anne Katrin; Taylor, Polly; Nutt, David

2018-02-16

Drug policy, whether for legal or illegal substances, is a controversial field that encompasses many complex issues. Policies can have effects on a myriad of outcomes and stakeholders differ in the outcomes they consider and value, while relevant knowledge on policy effects is dispersed across multiple research disciplines making integrated judgements difficult. Experts on drug harms, addiction, criminology and drug policy were invited to a decision conference to develop a multi-criterion decision analysis (MCDA) model for appraising alternative regulatory regimes. Participants collectively defined regulatory regimes and identified outcome criteria reflecting ethical and normative concerns. For cannabis and alcohol separately, participants evaluated each regulatory regime on each criterion and weighted the criteria to provide summary scores for comparing different regimes. Four generic regulatory regimes were defined: absolute prohibition, decriminalisation, state control and free market. Participants also identified 27 relevant criteria which were organised into seven thematically related clusters. State control was the preferred regime for both alcohol and cannabis. The ranking of the regimes was robust to variations in the criterion-specific weights. The MCDA process allowed the participants to deconstruct complex drug policy issues into a set of simpler judgements that led to consensus about the results. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rebuttal of "Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit"

Science.gov (United States)

Amstrup, Steven C.; Caswell, Hal; DeWeaver, Eric; Stirling, Ian; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Hunter, Christine M.

2009-01-01

Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior's listing-decision process, the US Geological Survey (USGS) produced a series of nine research reports evaluating the present and future status of polar bears throughout their range. In response, Armstrong et al. [Armstrong, J. S., K. C. Green, W. Soon. 2008. Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces 38(5) 382–405], which we will refer to as AGS, performed an audit of two of these nine reports. AGS claimed that the general circulation models upon which the USGS reports relied were not valid forecasting tools, that USGS researchers were not objective or lacked independence from policy decisions, that they did not utilize all available information in constructing their forecasts, and that they violated numerous principles of forecasting espoused by AGS. AGS (p. 382) concluded that the two USGS reports were "unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers." We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so. We clarify the strict independence of the USGS from the listing decision. We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment, polar bear biology, or statistical and mathematical methods. We conclude by showing that the AGS principles of forecasting are too ambiguous and subjective to be used as a reliable basis for auditing scientific

How citizen advisory boards provide input into major waste policy decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogers, E.; Murakami, L.; Hanson, L.

1995-01-01

Volunteer citizen boards, such as Site Specific Advisory Boards, can be a very important key to success for the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Waste Management program. These boards can provide informed, independent recommendations reflecting the diversity of the community and its values. A successful volunteer process requires collaboration among regulators, DOE and other Boards; knowing how and when to interface with the broader public; understanding the diversity and representational issues of a citizens group; knowing the open-quotes ins and outsclose quotes of working with volunteers; education and training and most importantly, planning. Volunteers on a citizens board were created to tackle the big picture, policy decisions. The chair of the Rocky Flats Citizens Advisory Board will describe her Board's successes, including the challenges in reaching consensus agreements, as well as the need for integration with other boards and the sites' on-going public involvement programs to provide the input the department is seeking. Finally, one of the greatest challenges for the boards is interfacing with the greater public-at-large, seeing how the CAB has overcome this challenge and integrating broader public input into its decisions

How citizen advisory boards provide input into major waste policy decisions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rogers, E.; Murakami, L.; Hanson, L. [Rocky Flats Citizen Advisory Board, Westminster, CO (United States)

1995-12-31

Volunteer citizen boards, such as Site Specific Advisory Boards, can be a very important key to success for the Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Waste Management program. These boards can provide informed, independent recommendations reflecting the diversity of the community and its values. A successful volunteer process requires collaboration among regulators, DOE and other Boards; knowing how and when to interface with the broader public; understanding the diversity and representational issues of a citizens group; knowing the {open_quotes}ins and outs{close_quotes} of working with volunteers; education and training and most importantly, planning. Volunteers on a citizens board were created to tackle the big picture, policy decisions. The chair of the Rocky Flats Citizens Advisory Board will describe her Board`s successes, including the challenges in reaching consensus agreements, as well as the need for integration with other boards and the sites` on-going public involvement programs to provide the input the department is seeking. Finally, one of the greatest challenges for the boards is interfacing with the greater public-at-large, seeing how the CAB has overcome this challenge and integrating broader public input into its decisions.

The implications of the Supreme Court's California nuclear moratorium decision

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, O.F.; Davis, E.M.

1983-01-01

A decision of 20 April 1983 of the US Supreme Court, upholding a moratorium imposed by the State of California against new construction of nuclear plants until certain conditions are met, is being hailed by critics of nuclear power as a defeat for the nuclear and electric utility industries. The authors in their commentary of the decision disagree with this interpretation and believe that its impact is limited in scope and there are some positive aspects with respect to the decision. They furthermore consider that the recently enacted Nuclear Waste Policy Act at the federal level would seem to satisfy state requirements for the availability of nuclear waste disposal and that the future of nuclear power will depend more on its relative economics than on this court decision. (NEA) [fr

Consequences of the Swedish energy policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Almstroem, P.

2000-01-01

Sweden is unique among the industrialised nations of the world to be affected by a decision that puts its whole future and welfare at risk. The parliamentary decision on energy policy made in spring 1997, is considered a highly unfortunate one. The decision to start a premature phasing-out of nuclear power is especially serious. In order to transform Sweden into an ecological model country, the 'transition program' was launched by the Government. It proposed investments in reducing the electricity consumption and research and development of new energy technology renewable energy sources which produced no results. It is also important to reconsider the environmental consequences of the closure of Barsebaeck NPP. A comparison of emissions in Sweden and Denmark, which has no NPPs reveals that Denmark emits 10 times more carbon dioxide and 20 times more sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. The renewable energy sources will become commercially competitive in the future, but meanwhile the Kyoto objective can be reached only by continuing to use nuclear power as long as it is commercially competitive and as long as there are no other ecologically sustainable systems

A Markovian state-space framework for integrating flexibility into space system design decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Lafleur, Jarret M.

The past decades have seen the state of the art in aerospace system design progress from a scope of simple optimization to one including robustness, with the objective of permitting a single system to perform well even in off-nominal future environments. Integrating flexibility, or the capability to easily modify a system after it has been fielded in response to changing environments, into system design represents a further step forward. One challenge in accomplishing this rests in that the decision-maker must consider not only the present system design decision, but also sequential future design and operation decisions. Despite extensive interest in the topic, the state of the art in designing flexibility into aerospace systems, and particularly space systems, tends to be limited to analyses that are qualitative, deterministic, single-objective, and/or limited to consider a single future time period. To address these gaps, this thesis develops a stochastic, multi-objective, and multi-period framework for integrating flexibility into space system design decisions. Central to the framework are five steps. First, system configuration options are identified and costs of switching from one configuration to another are compiled into a cost transition matrix. Second, probabilities that demand on the system will transition from one mission to another are compiled into a mission demand Markov chain. Third, one performance matrix for each design objective is populated to describe how well the identified system configurations perform in each of the identified mission demand environments. The fourth step employs multi-period decision analysis techniques, including Markov decision processes from the field of operations research, to find efficient paths and policies a decision-maker may follow. The final step examines the implications of these paths and policies for the primary goal of informing initial system selection. Overall, this thesis unifies state-centric concepts of

Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Byron K Williams

Full Text Available Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both. There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and

Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2017-01-01

Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management

Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Vervoort, Joost; Palazzo, Amanda; Islam, Shahnila; Lord, Steven; Helfgott, Ariella; Havlík, Petr; Peou, Rathana; Sassen, Marieke; Veeger, Marieke; van Soesbergen, Arnout; Arnell, Andrew P.; Stuch, Benjamin; Arslan, Aslihan; Lipper, Leslie

Abstract Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use

Suggesting a new European language policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelde, Peter H

2004-01-01

Conflict is the most intriguing aspect of contact linguistics. Throughout history ever since the Tower of Babel was left unfinished, contacts between speakers of different languages have unavoidably resulted in conflicts between speakers of those languages. Without any doubt, the European Union (EU)--above all after the decision to enlarge the community--has accepted the multidisciplinary symbolic function of language and culture as a basis for European political unification. Accordingly, European Union policy makers have had to analyze conflicts caused by monolingualism and multilingualism, all aspects of contact linguistics. Can these conflicts be solved, minimized or neutralized by strategies of language planning, language policies and language politics? Initial results of European language policy strategies permit at least a cautious measure of optimism and open broad perspectives for the future of a New Multilingualism which will be discussed in our contribution.

World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frei, Christoph; Whitney, Rob; Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Rose, Karl; Rieser, Dan A.; Al-Qahtani, Ayed; Thomas, Philip; Turton, Hal; Densing, Martin; Panos, Evangelos; Volkart, Kathrin

2013-01-01

The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today's choices on tomorrow's energy landscape. Rather than telling policy-makers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC's World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow This document includes the French and English versions of the executive summary and the English version of the full report

What electricity generation technology to choose? The Australian energy policy challenge to 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Page, B.

2006-01-01

Demand for electricity in Australia is forecast to grow over the period to 2030 by between 2.1 percent and 2.3 percent per annum. At a minimum, in excess of 12.000 MW of new baseload generation capacity will need to be built to meet this growing demand, in addition to substantial amounts of peaking and mid-merit plant. With extensive low-cost and easily accessible reserves of coal and natural gas available for new generation facilities, investment decisions in a competitive market environment would ordinarily be largely determined by average cost considerations. However, domestic and international policy uncertainty on the future treatment of carbon emissions, anticipated development of new, lower emission generation technologies and uncertainty over future fuel prices and availability results in a difficult investment decision making environment. The competing considerations, generation options and importance of a clear and sustainable national energy policy in delivering timely, least cost new generation plant will be examined in the paper

Policies for a renewable future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

This chapter identifies changes needed in policies regarding the utilization of renewable energy sources. The topics of the chapter include financial and legal incentives, information needs, long range energy and economic policy, environmental issues as an impetus to commercialization of renewable energy sources, taxing use of fossil fuels, encouraging renewable energy use by electric utilities through least-cost planning, educating the public and providing technical assistance, research and development, and environmental regulation and monitoring

Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

2017-02-01

Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

Students' Reactions to Course Policy Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Sarah F.; Jenkins, Jade S.; Barber, Larissa K.

2016-01-01

Classroom management involves managing students' requests for course policy changes. Instructors can adhere to the course policies or convey flexibility through making an exception for the student. The current study empirically examines students' emotional reactions (hostility, guilt, and surprise) and fairness perceptions to course policy…

Real options analysis for land use management: Methods, application, and implications for policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Regan, Courtney M; Bryan, Brett A; Connor, Jeffery D; Meyer, Wayne S; Ostendorf, Bertram; Zhu, Zili; Bao, Chenming

2015-09-15

Discounted cash flow analysis, including net present value is an established way to value land use and management investments which accounts for the time-value of money. However, it provides a static view and assumes passive commitment to an investment strategy when real world land use and management investment decisions are characterised by uncertainty, irreversibility, change, and adaptation. Real options analysis has been proposed as a better valuation method under uncertainty and where the opportunity exists to delay investment decisions, pending more information. We briefly review the use of discounted cash flow methods in land use and management and discuss their benefits and limitations. We then provide an overview of real options analysis, describe the main analytical methods, and summarize its application to land use investment decisions. Real options analysis is largely underutilized in evaluating land use decisions, despite uncertainty in policy and economic drivers, the irreversibility and sunk costs involved. New simulation methods offer the potential for overcoming current technical challenges to implementation as demonstrated with a real options simulation model used to evaluate an agricultural land use decision in South Australia. We conclude that considering option values in future policy design will provide a more realistic assessment of landholder investment decision making and provide insights for improved policy performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Past, Present and Future of Industrial Policy in India: Adapting to the Changing Domestic and International Environment

OpenAIRE

Ajit Singh

2008-01-01

In the post-World War II period India was probably the first non-communist developing country to have instituted a full-fledged industrial policy. The purpose of the policy was to co-ordinate investment decisions both in the public and the private sectors and to seize the 'commanding heights' of the economy by bringing certain strategic industries and firms under public ownership. This classical state-directed industrialisation model held sway for three decades, from 1950-1980. The model bega...

Introduction of a Science Policy Course at the University of Oklahoma

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, S.; Parsons, D.

2012-12-01

In modern society, science and policy are two processes that have a symbiotic relationship to each other; wherein policy dictates the direction of science while science shapes the future of policy. Although the policy side is often ignored in scientific environments, the rate of scientific advancement is heavily influenced by policy. Science policy is very different from the conduct of science itself and future scientists need to be aware of the issues and factors that dictate the present and future direction of science. Based on the intricate relationship between science and policy, it is essential to introduce an overview of the policy process to future scientists and decision makers. In the context of climate change, policy implications are extensive and critical owing to their large socio-economic impacts. Hence, knowledge of the policy process is even more relevant to earth scientists. In this regard, the proposal to start an introductory course in science policy is currently being discussed in the department of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. If such a course is approved, an interactive graduate level class will be introduced for students pursuing a career in science. Such a course will be cross- disciplinary and will be offered to a wide audience across the university. Since the American Meteorological Society's (AMS) Summer Policy Colloquium has been a very successful program in educating scientists about the policy process, a format similar to the colloquium may be adopted. The primary topics will include the understanding of policy fundamentals, effective communication, ethics and integrity in the conduct of scientific research, executive leadership in science and the responsibilities of a scientific leader, impact of science on globalization and international diplomacy, etc. The AMS policy program office will be consulted to help design the course curriculum. An overview of the steps involved in introducing the class will be presented at the

Optimal Decision Making Framework of an Electric Vehicle Aggregator in Future and Pool markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rashidizadeh-Kermani, Homa; Najafi, Hamid Reza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad

2018-01-01

An electric vehicle (EV) aggregator, as an agent between power producers and EV owners, participates in the future and pool market to supply EVs’ requirement. Because of uncertain nature of pool prices and EVs’ behavior, this paper proposed a two stage scenario-based model to obtain optimal decis...... electricity markets, a sensitivity analysis over risk factor is performed. The numerical results demonstrate that with the application of the proposed model, the aggregator can supply EVs with lower purchases from markets....... decision making of an EV aggregator. To deal with mentioned uncertainties, the aggregator’s risk aversion is applied using conditional value at risk (CVaR) method in the proposed model. The proposed two stage risk-constrained decision making problem is applied to maximize EV aggregator’s expected profit...... in an uncertain environment. The aggregator can participate in the future and pool market to buy required energy of EVs and offer optimal charge/discharge prices to the EV owners. In this model, in order to assess the effects of EVs owners’ reaction to the aggregator’s offered prices on the purchases from...

LNG market: future clouded by uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Segal, J

1979-12-01

The emergence of a US national energy policy playing down the role of LNG, along with a growing trend toward unfavorable production and pricing policies by LNG-exporting nations, will limit international LNG trade to about 9-10.5 billion CF/day by 1985, instead of the 13.4-15 billion CF predicted previously. In the US, LNG now stands fifth in priority as a baseload supply source, following conventional Lower 48 supplies, Alaskan pipeline gas, imports from Canada and Mexico, and domestic synthetic gas. Despite this federal policy and the adjoined decision to apply incremental pricing to future LNG imports, two new projects will soon come on-stream in the US: one to receive 450 million CF/day of Algerian gas at Lake Charles, La., and another to receive 539 million CF/day from Indonesia and 431 million CF/day from Alaska at a terminal in California.

Perspectives on NATO Nuclear Policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lunn, Simon [Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies - RUSI, Whitehall, London, SW1A 2ET (United Kingdom); Larsen, Jeffrey [Larsen Consulting Group, 3710 Woodland Dr Ste 2100, Anchorage, AK 99517 (United States); Yost, David [Naval Postgraduate School, 1 University Circle, Monterey, CA 93943 (United States); Kamp, Karl-Heinz [NATO Defense College, Via Giorgio Pelosi 1, 00143, Roma (Italy); Edelman, Eric [Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments - CSBA, 1667 K Sreet NW, Suite 900, Washington, DC, 20006 (United States); Valasek, Tomas [Centre for European Reform - CER, 14 Great College Street, Westminster, London, SW1P 3RX (United Kingdom); Garcia Cantalapiedra, David [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

2011-05-26

NATO will shortly revisit the question of its nuclear policy and posture as part of the ongoing deterrence and defense posture review (DDPR). This assessment of its nuclear requirements will be take place against the background of two parallel and potentially competing commitments: first, the general support for the goal of reducing and eventually eliminating nuclear weapons with the related question of how NATO should contribute to this goal; second, the commitment that in considering the role of nuclear weapons the priority for NATO members is the maintenance of solidarity and cohesion and the consequent determination that decisions on nuclear policy will be taken by the Alliance collectively. There are forcefully expressed arguments on both sides of the debate over whether to maintain or eliminate the remaining arsenal of U.S. nuclear weapons assigned to NATO. On the one hand, they provide coupling, transatlantic links, military capabilities against an uncertain future, and risk and burden sharing. On the other, some allies see benefits to further reductions in the remaining arsenal in the cause of global disarmament. This study presents first the questions and issues for NATO and the future alternatives for NATO nuclear policy. Then, the views from United States, Germany, Turkey, Central and Eastern Europe, Italy and Spain are successively reviewed

Perspectives on NATO Nuclear Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lunn, Simon; Larsen, Jeffrey; Yost, David; Kamp, Karl-Heinz; Edelman, Eric; Valasek, Tomas; Garcia Cantalapiedra, David

2011-01-01

NATO will shortly revisit the question of its nuclear policy and posture as part of the ongoing deterrence and defense posture review (DDPR). This assessment of its nuclear requirements will be take place against the background of two parallel and potentially competing commitments: first, the general support for the goal of reducing and eventually eliminating nuclear weapons with the related question of how NATO should contribute to this goal; second, the commitment that in considering the role of nuclear weapons the priority for NATO members is the maintenance of solidarity and cohesion and the consequent determination that decisions on nuclear policy will be taken by the Alliance collectively. There are forcefully expressed arguments on both sides of the debate over whether to maintain or eliminate the remaining arsenal of U.S. nuclear weapons assigned to NATO. On the one hand, they provide coupling, transatlantic links, military capabilities against an uncertain future, and risk and burden sharing. On the other, some allies see benefits to further reductions in the remaining arsenal in the cause of global disarmament. This study presents first the questions and issues for NATO and the future alternatives for NATO nuclear policy. Then, the views from United States, Germany, Turkey, Central and Eastern Europe, Italy and Spain are successively reviewed

Intention-Aware Autonomous Driving Decision-Making in an Uncontrolled Intersection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weilong Song

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Autonomous vehicles need to perform social accepted behaviors in complex urban scenarios including human-driven vehicles with uncertain intentions. This leads to many difficult decision-making problems, such as deciding a lane change maneuver and generating policies to pass through intersections. In this paper, we propose an intention-aware decision-making algorithm to solve this challenging problem in an uncontrolled intersection scenario. In order to consider uncertain intentions, we first develop a continuous hidden Markov model to predict both the high-level motion intention (e.g., turn right, turn left, and go straight and the low level interaction intentions (e.g., yield status for related vehicles. Then a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP is built to model the general decision-making framework. Due to the difficulty in solving POMDP, we use proper assumptions and approximations to simplify this problem. A human-like policy generation mechanism is used to generate the possible candidates. Human-driven vehicles’ future motion model is proposed to be applied in state transition process and the intention is updated during each prediction time step. The reward function, which considers the driving safety, traffic laws, time efficiency, and so forth, is designed to calculate the optimal policy. Finally, our method is evaluated in simulation with PreScan software and a driving simulator. The experiments show that our method could lead autonomous vehicle to pass through uncontrolled intersections safely and efficiently.

32 CFR 282.4 - Policy.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... certain claim settlement and advance decision functions that, by statute or delegation, are vested in the... SETTLING PERSONNEL AND GENERAL CLAIMS AND PROCESSING ADVANCE DECISION REQUESTS § 282.4 Policy. It is DoD policy that: (a) Claims shall be settled and advance decisions rendered in accordance with all pertinent...

China's one-child policy, a policy without a future. Pitfalls of the “common good” argument and the authoritarian model.

Science.gov (United States)

Nie, Jing-Bao

2014-07-01

The Chinese Communist Party government has been forcefully promoting its jihua shengyu (planned fertility) program, known as the "one-child policy," for more than three decades. A distinctive authoritarian model of population governance has been developed. A pertinent question to be asked is whether China's one-child policy and the authoritarian model of population governance have a future. The answer must be no; they do not. Although there are many demographic, economic, and social rationales for terminating the one-child policy, the most fundamental reason for opposing its continuation is drawn from ethics. The key ethical rationale offered for the policy is that it promotes the common social good, not only for China and the Chinese people but for the whole human family. The major irony associated with this apparently convincing justification is that, although designed to improve living standards and help relieve poverty and underdevelopment, the one-child policy and the application of the authoritarian model have instead caused massive suffering to Chinese people, especially women, and made them victims of state violence. A lesson from China--one learned at the cost of individual and social suffering on an enormous scale--is that an essential prerequisite for the pursuit of the common good is the creation of adequate constraints on state power.

Tax Policy Assessment in Slovenia – Case of Interest Tax Shield

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jovanovic Tatjana

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The tax policy assessment is an indispensable strategy within any modern country’s system of governance. There are several types of “impact assessments”, with RIA as one of the most commonly used. This tool is used to measure and analyse the benefits, costs and effects of a new or existing legal regime, which can be carried out by collecting and analysing empirical data in the context of a broader decision-making framework. The main objective of the paper is to analyse which stage the Slovenian regulatory impact assessment is in, and whether this stage is sophisticated enough to provide for the essential verification of tax policy and specific instruments, focusing mainly on the case of interest tax shield issues. Methodologically, the paper is based on a systematic literature review, a survey for public consultations and statistical tools for calculating the differences in internal indebtedness in different observed periods. The results show that the Slovenian RIA is not sophisticated enough to evaluate complex tax instruments and policy. Nevertheless, tax policy decision-makers should reconsider the implementation of a thin capitalization rule (but also future tax policy instruments focusing also on other, non-tax revenue, factors.

The Future of Electricity Resource Planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kahrl, Fredrich [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States); Mills, Andrew [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Lavin, Luke [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States); Ryan, Nancy [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States); Olsen, Arne [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States); Schwartz, Lisa [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2016-09-14

Electricity resource planning is the process of identifying longer-term investments to meet electricity reliability requirements and public policy goals at a reasonable cost. Resource planning processes provide a forum for regulators, electric utilities, and electricity industry stakeholders to evaluate the economic, environmental, and social benefits and costs of different investment options. By facilitating a discussion on future goals, challenges and strategies, resource planning processes often play an important role in shaping utility business decisions. Resource planning emerged more than three decades ago in an era of transition, where declining electricity demand and rising costs spurred fundamental changes in electricity industry regulation and structure. Despite significant changes in the industry, resource planning continues to play an important role in supporting investment decision making. Over the next two decades, the electricity industry will again undergo a period of transition, driven by technological change, shifting customer preferences and public policy goals. This transition will bring about a gradual paradigm shift in resource planning, requiring changes in scope, approaches and methods. Even as it changes, resource planning will continue to be a central feature of the electricity industry. Its functions — ensuring the reliability of high voltage (“bulk”) power systems, enabling oversight of regulated utilities and facilitating low-cost compliance with public policy goals — are likely to grow in importance as the electricity industry enters a new period of technological, economic and regulatory change. This report examines the future of electricity resource planning in the context of a changing electricity industry. The report examines emerging issues and evolving practices in five key areas that will shape the future of resource planning: (1) central-scale generation, (2) distributed generation, (3) demand-side resources, (4

Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Wholesale Electricity Prices, and on Electric-Sector Decision Making

OpenAIRE

Seel, J; Mills, AD; Wiser, RH

2018-01-01

Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low V...

The present value of the future, or individual decisions behind superannuation investments

OpenAIRE

Attila Farmasi; Tibor Tatay

2011-01-01

In recent decades, there has been much debate on how a state can establish a pension system that takes into consideration the balance of the general government. In addition to the condition of an equilibrium, social security and the stability of the value of pensions should also be ensured. The Hungarian regulation, however, has compelled not only economic politicians, but also future pensioners make their choice several times. The aim of this paper is to study such choices and decisions. The...

Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael R. Guzy

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

Limiting the financial risks of electricity generation capital investments under carbon constraints: Applications and opportunities for public policies and private investments

Science.gov (United States)

Newcomer, Adam

Increasing demand for electricity and an aging fleet of generators are the principal drivers behind an increasing need for a large amount of capital investments in the US electric power sector in the near term. The decisions (or lack thereof) by firms, regulators and policy makers in response to this challenge have long lasting consequences, incur large economic and environmental risks, and must be made despite large uncertainties about the future operating and business environment. Capital investment decisions are complex: rates of return are not guaranteed; significant uncertainties about future environmental legislation and regulations exist at both the state and national levels---particularly about carbon dioxide emissions; there is an increasing number of shareholder mandates requiring public utilities to reduce their exposure to potentially large losses from stricter environmental regulations; and there are significant concerns about electricity and fuel price levels, supplies, and security. Large scale, low carbon electricity generation facilities using coal, such as integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) facilities coupled with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies, have been technically proven but are unprofitable in the current regulatory and business environment where there is no explicit or implicit price on carbon dioxide emissions. The paper examines two separate scenarios that are actively discussed by policy and decision makers at corporate, state and national levels: a future US electricity system where coal plays a role; and one where the role of coal is limited or nonexistent. The thesis intends to provide guidance for firms and policy makers and outline applications and opportunities for public policies and for private investment decisions to limit financial risks of electricity generation capital investments under carbon constraints.

Stem cell tourism and future stem cell tourists: policy and ethical implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Einsiedel, Edna F; Adamson, Hannah

2012-04-01

Stem cell tourism is a small but growing part of the thriving global medical tourism marketplace. Much stem cell research remains at the experimental stage, with clinical trials still uncommon. However, there are over 700 clinics estimated to be operating in mostly developing countries--from Costa Rica and Argentina to China, India and Russia--that have lured many patients, mostly from industrialized countries, driven by desperation and hope, which in turn continue to fuel the growth of such tourism. While much research has focused on such dimensions as the promotions that allow such businesses to make their services known, media coverage, some patient research, and regulatory conditions for developing country clinics, little attention has been paid to the non-affected members of the general population, the future potential users of such services. This empirical study based on five focus group discussions with a diverse group of healthy adults in a Canadian city, explored participant views of patients who use stem cell tourism services, the likelihood they would avail themselves of such services if they were to suffer similar illnesses, and the conditions under which they might do so, and the impact that admonitions and advice from international expert bodies might have on their decisions. Our findings suggest that these healthy adults are sympathetic to the drivers of hope and desperation, and, despite cautions about research limitations, may seek such treatments themselves under similar conditions. These findings are discussed in the context of the policy and ethical issues raised by this form of medical tourism. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Dams, Hydrology and Risk in Future River Management

Science.gov (United States)

Wegner, D. L.

2017-12-01

Across America there are over 80,000 large to medium dams and globally the number is in excess of 800,000. Currently there are over 1,400 dams and diversion structures being planned or under construction globally. In addition to these documented dams there are thousands of small dams populating watersheds. Governments, agencies, native tribes, private owners and regulators all have a common interest in safe dams. Often dam safety is characterized as reducing structural risk while providing for maximum operational flexibility. In the 1970's there were a number of large and small dam failures in the United States. These failures prompted the federal government to issue voluntary dam safety guidelines. These guidelines were based on historic information incorporated into a risk assessment process to analyze, evaluate and manage risk with the goal to improve the quality of and support of dam management and safety decisions. We conclude that historic and new risks need to be integrated into dam management to insure adequate safety and operational flexibility. A recent assessment of the future role of dams in the United States premises that future costs such as maintenance or removal beyond the economic design life have not been factored into the long-term operations or relicensing of dams. The converging risks associated with aging water storage infrastructure, multiple dams within watersheds and uncertainty in demands policy revisions and an updated strategic approach to dam safety. Decisions regarding the future of dams in the United States may, in turn, influence regional water planning and management. Leaders in Congress and in the states need to implement a comprehensive national water assessment and a formal analysis of the role dams play in our water future. A research and national policy agenda is proposed to assess future impacts and the design, operation, and management of watersheds and dams.

UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY: CHANGING EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’S PERSPECTIVE ON FINANCIAL GOVERNANCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bogdan Munteanu

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The paper aims to look at the European Central Bank governance in terms of decisions taken to deploy a new kit of unconventional monetary policy measures, in order to respond to a new economic paradigm characterized by dynamic change in evolution, high volatility and enhanced financial risks. As an institution, the European Central Bank is led by the Governing Council and the decisions taken on how to use monetary policy impact an entire financial system. European Central Banking governance is about safeguarding the common currency and ensuring a future for the economic and monetary area to emerge stronger. For this purpose, when conventional monetary policies reach limits in their effects, it is time for the European Central Bank governance to analyse and assume the decision to deploy the arsenal of unconventional monetary policies. The experience of recent years showed a positive effect of the European Central Bank’s unconventional monetary measures, but costs could rise in case of extensive use of such measures. When these measures are used in combination, the effect is amplified and the European Central Bank needs to assess when it is time to withdraw the support, how to communicate and what exit strategy should use, what the costs are and impact can expect.

The greatest happiness of the greatest number? Policy actors' perspectives on the limits of economic evaluation as a tool for informing health care coverage decisions in Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Teerawattananon, Yot; Russell, Steve

2008-09-26

This paper presents qualitative findings from an assessment of the acceptability of using economic evaluation among policy actors in Thailand. Using cost-utility data from two economic analyses a hypothetical case scenario was created in which policy actors had to choose between two competing interventions to include in a public health benefit package. The two competing interventions, laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) for gallbladder disease versus renal dialysis for chronic renal disease, were selected because they highlighted conflicting criteria influencing the allocation of healthcare resources. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 policy actors who play a major role in resource allocation decisions within the Thai healthcare system. These included 14 policy makers at the national level, five hospital directors, ten health professionals and seven academics. Twenty six out of 36 (72%) respondents were not convinced by the presentation of economic evaluation findings and chose not to support the inclusion of a proven cost-effective intervention (LC) in the benefit package due to ethical, institutional and political considerations. There were only six respondents, including three policy makers at national level, one hospital director, one health professional and one academic, (6/36, 17%) whose decisions were influenced by economic evaluation evidence. This paper illustrates limitations of using economic evaluation information in decision making priorities of health care, perceived by different policy actors. It demonstrates that the concept of maximising health utility fails to recognise other important societal values in making health resource allocation decisions.

Contraceptive practices in Nigeria: Literature review and recommendation for future policy decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emmanuel Monjok

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Emmanuel Monjok1, Andrea Smesny1, John E Ekabua2, E James Essien11Institute of Community Health, University of Houston, Texas, USA; 2Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Calabar, NigeriaAbstract: The current prevalence rate for contraceptive use in Nigeria is approximately 11%–13%. This rate is very low in spite of the high rate of sexual activity and widespread awareness of the various contraceptive methods among Nigerian adolescence and youths. As a result there are many unintended pregnancies and illegal abortions contributing to a high maternal mortality ratio, which seems to indicate a large unmet need for contraceptive use. There is ample research evidence identifying the various factors that contribute to the low prevalence of modern contraceptive use in Nigeria, with the most common factor being the myth about the side effects of modern contraceptives. However, what is lacking is a political will in Nigeria to provide family planning programs on a much larger scale, using community-oriented approaches and communication programs, to help change the myth about the side effects of modern contraceptives. This review highlights current methods and concepts in contraception, reasons for low contraceptive use and practice in Nigeria, and the need for Nigeria to generate a political priority and a will to make a change in maternal health indicators, with the ultimate goal of providing direction to guide changes in the Nigerian Population Policy as it affects contraceptive use and family planning.Keywords: contraceptive practice, literature review, research, Nigeria

Future directions for environmental policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Riordan, T

1984-01-01

Environmentalism is an elusive concept with many meanings. Its changing character is examined together with an analysis of how it is likely to influence public policy across a broad front. The paper also reviews the major environmental issues which QECD countries are likely to face nationally, regionally and globally over the next twenty years and discusses the type of politics that may emerge within the new environmentalism. The overriding global issue will be the tragic interconnection between poverty and environmental damage in the underdeveloped countries. In the developed but de-industrialising economies of the 'north' greatest attention will be placed on devising means for creating jobs and providing satisfying occupations for people forced out of a job or never in employment. Environmental rehabilitation can create jobs, but it will involve the denial of resources otherwise available to create jobs elsewhere. It will therefore be necessary to consider the 'next job effectiveness' of environmental policies. Another policy area that requires new thinking is the management of environmental hazards, notably how to dispose of toxic wastes in a manner acceptable to a majority of people. Finally serious efforts will have to be made, not only to infuse environmental principles within all policy arenas, but also to ensure that departmental responsibilities and budgets are properly linked. The principle that those who exploit environmental resources should subsidise those who use environmental resources frugally and benignly by means of transfer taxes and payments should also become established. (orig.).

An exploration of pregnant teenagers' views of the future and their decisions to continue or terminate their pregnancy: implications for nursing care.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Emily R; Glover, Lesley; Alexander, Tim

2014-09-01

To explore teenagers' views of the future in relation to their choices to continue or terminate pregnancy. Despite recent decreases in the numbers of teenage pregnancies, across the world, the teenage pregnancy rate remains high. Consideration of views of the future (future orientation) appears to play an important part in teenage girls' decisions to continue with pregnancy. To date, no study has explored this in teenage pregnant girls at the time they make their decision to continue with or terminate their pregnancy. Cross-sectional mixed methods design. Three groups were included: termination of pregnancy (n = 19), antenatal (n = 9) and never pregnant (n = 23). Participants were 13-18 years old. The termination of pregnancy and antenatal groups were interviewed, and the never pregnant group completed postal questionnaires. Groups differed in individual aspects of future orientation, that is, education, career and family, and reasons for pregnancy resolution choice. The termination group had more clearly developed and longer-term plans for the future with a focus on career. The never pregnant group shared aspects of their future orientation with both the antenatal and termination of pregnancy groups. The impact of negative discourses about teenage pregnancy from others was identified as a significant issue. How pregnant teenage girls view the future has a relationship with their decision to terminate or continue with their pregnancy. The findings suggest that working with teenage girls to clarify their views of the future may be useful both in preventing future unwanted pregnancy and in supporting teenagers in making pregnancy decisions. Supporting pregnant teenagers in distancing themselves from negative stereotypes of teenage mothers may also be beneficial. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Health services analysis as a tool for evidence-based policy decisions: the case of the Ministry of Health and Social Security in Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Kroeger, Axel; Hernandez, Juan Manuel

2003-12-01

To describe the strengths and weaknesses of two Mexican health care providers for poor populations [Ministry of Health (MoH) and Social Security (SS)] in order to facilitate policy decisions about the future of the two systems. In four Mexican states we conducted (i) a household interview survey in 10 724 households; (ii) a user satisfaction survey in 1319 households; (iii) a satisfaction survey of 236 health workers; (iv) in-depth interviews with 190 health workers; (v) 188 focus-group discussions with different population groups; (vi) a document analysis. Both systems serve populations with similar characteristics of poverty. The availability of resources was better in the MoH system; SS care was better concerning process indicators (family planning, antenatal care; in-service delivery of drugs, staff productivity, user satisfaction and staff motivation), efficiency and effectiveness (reduction of morbidity and mortality). Possible explanatory factors for the better performance of the SS system were strong supervision, regular communication, joint data analysis and annual population surveys. Better service organization makes a difference regarding efficiency and effectiveness. Policy-makers, deciding on which kind of health services are best for the poor, should take into account health services' analyses.

Evaluation of future policy instruments - Sub-Project 2; Utvaerdering av framtida styrmedel - Delprojekt 2 inom projektet Perspektiv paa framtida avfallsbehandling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bisaillon, Mattias; Dahlen, Lisa; Detterfelt, Lia; Edner, Stig; Toren, Johan

2013-09-01

There are several recently introduced and future possible policy instruments that are of great interest to study in order to understand the future for the Swedish waste treatment market. In the energy sector, the use of system analysis models has proven to be effective in order to understand the effects and consequences of policy instruments. In the waste sector, however, such analyses have only been conducted sporadically. This in spite of the introduction of highly influential policy instruments such as producer responsibility, landfill tax and landfill ban, which together have contributed to landfilling of Swedish household waste practically has ceased. The goal of this project was, by using system analysis models, to study and evaluate the newly introduced and future possible policy instruments which affect Swedish waste treatment. The assessment was made in terms of how policy instruments affect: - the distribution of treatment technologies, - waste amounts, - greenhouse gas emissions and - the economics of waste treatment. The project was performed during 2011 and 2012 as a part of the research project 'Perspectives on sustainable waste treatment (PFA)'. During the project, discussions have taken place within the working group and the reference group on which instruments are most interesting and relevant to study. Furthermore, opinions have been gathered from the association Swedish Waste Managements policy instrument group and from various players in the industry at conferences, presentations and workshops.

CEOS contributions to informing energy management and policy decision making using space-based Earth observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eckman, Richard S.; Stackhouse, Paul W.

2012-01-01

Earth observations are playing an increasingly significant role in informing decision making in the energy sector. In renewable energy applications, space-based observations now routinely augment sparse ground-based observations used as input for renewable energy resource assessment applications. As one of the nine Group on Earth Observations (GEO) societal benefit areas, the enhancement of management and policy decision making in the energy sector is receiving attention in activities conducted by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). CEOS has become the “space arm” for the implementation of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) vision. It is directly supporting the space-based, near-term tasks articulated in the GEO three-year work plan. This paper describes a coordinated program of demonstration projects conducted by CEOS member agencies and partners to utilize Earth observations to enhance energy management end-user decision support systems. We discuss the importance of engagement with stakeholders and understanding their decision support needs in successfully increasing the uptake of Earth observation products for societal benefit. Several case studies are presented, demonstrating the importance of providing data sets in formats and units familiar and immediately usable by decision makers. These projects show the utility of Earth observations to enhance renewable energy resource assessment in the developing world, forecast space weather impacts on the power grid, and improve energy efficiency in the built environment.

CEOS Contributions to Informing Energy Management and Policy Decision Making Using Space-Based Earth Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Eckman, Richard S.

2009-01-01

Earth observations are playing an increasingly significant role in informing decision making in the energy sector. In renewable energy applications, space-based observations now routinely augment sparse ground-based observations used as input for renewable energy resource assessment applications. As one of the nine Group on Earth Observations (GEO) societal benefit areas, the enhancement of management and policy decision making in the energy sector is receiving attention in activities conducted by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). CEOS has become the "space arm" for the implementation of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) vision. It is directly supporting the space-based, near-term tasks articulated in the GEO three-year work plan. This paper describes a coordinated program of demonstration projects conducted by CEOS member agencies and partners to utilize Earth observations to enhance energy management end-user decision support systems. I discuss the importance of engagement with stakeholders and understanding their decision support needs in successfully increasing the uptake of Earth observation products for societal benefit. Several case studies are presented, demonstrating the importance of providing data sets in formats and units familiar and immediately usable by decision makers. These projects show the utility of Earth observations to enhance renewable energy resource assessment in the developing world, forecast space-weather impacts on the power grid, and improve energy efficiency in the built environment.

Social Cost Benefit Analysis for Environmental Policy-Making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Zeeuw, A.; In t Veld, R.; Van Soest, D.; Meuleman, L.; Hoogewoning, P.

2008-01-01

Review of the theoretical literature and the current debate on the valuation of environmental goods and services, on the discounting of future benefits and costs, and on how social cost benefit analysis (SCBAs) can be integrated in the policy and decision making process. It is concluded that SCBA can be a good decision support method in environmental policy-making if it is transparent and if all impacts are taken into account. Furthermore, the SCBA process should be participative, and politicians must be prepared to take responsibility for the assumptions behind the SCBA, including the assumptions on valuation and on the discount rate. Such a political role makes each SCBA a unique product of a politically responsible actor, and makes it possible for other stakeholders to have calculated an alternative SCBA based on their own assumptions. This Background Study also contains the proceedings of the international SCBA conference organised by RMNO on 16-17 January 2008

Joint research project to develop a training course or nuclear policy decision makers and planners in developing countries between KAERI and IAEA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, E. J.; Suh, I. S.; Lee, H. Y. and others

2000-12-01

KAERI developed training course curricula on nuclear power policy and planning for decision makers and planners in developing countries under the assistance of the IAEA. It was utilized two IAEA staff members and a Korean consultation group were utilized for the development of curricula. Curriculum consists of training objectives, training contents in modular basis, detailed contents of each training module, training setting, training duration, session hours, and entry requirements of audience. One is workshop on nuclear energy policy for high-level decision makers in developing countries. The other is training course on nuclear power planning and project management for middle level managers in developing countries. The textbook in English will be printed by the end of February in 2001. Developed curricula will be implemented for Vietnam high level nuclear decision makers, middle level managers in developing countries and north Korea nuclear high level decision makers in 2001. These training courses' curricula and textbook will be utilized as basic technical documents to promote the national nuclear bilateral technical cooperation programs with Morocco, Egypt, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Ukraine, etc

Joint research project to develop a training course or nuclear policy decision makers and planners in developing countries between KAERI and IAEA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, E. J.; Suh, I. S.; Lee, H. Y. and others

2000-12-01

KAERI developed training course curricula on nuclear power policy and planning for decision makers and planners in developing countries under the assistance of the IAEA. It was utilized two IAEA staff members and a Korean consultation group were utilized for the development of curricula. Curriculum consists of training objectives, training contents in modular basis, detailed contents of each training module, training setting, training duration, session hours, and entry requirements of audience. One is workshop on nuclear energy policy for high-level decision makers in developing countries. The other is training course on nuclear power planning and project management for middle level managers in developing countries. The textbook in English will be printed by the end of February in 2001. Developed curricula will be implemented for Vietnam high level nuclear decision makers, middle level managers in developing countries and north Korea nuclear high level decision makers in 2001. These training courses' curricula and textbook will be utilized as basic technical documents to promote the national nuclear bilateral technical cooperation programs with Morocco, Egypt, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Ukraine, etc.

Scenarios in decision-making. An application to CO2 emission reduction strategies in passenger transport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rienstra, S.A.; Vleugel, J.M; Nijkamp, P. [Department of Social Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands)] Smokers, R.T.M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

1995-12-01

The usefulness of scenarios for decision-makers is analyzed. First, a theoretical introduction to the scenario methodology is presented. Next, four energy scenarios for West-European passenger transport are developed. To start with, the present transport system as a baseline case is described and analysed. For each scenario it is outlined how the passenger transport system may look like in terms of the use of various existing and future transport technologies and the corresponding modal split. Expected energy consumption features of the various transport modes are described, data on the present fuel supply and electricity generation system are presented, as well as estimations of the future energy system. The energy consumption and CO2 emissions associated with the future passenger transport systems are assessed and these impacts are compared with the current system. The conclusion is that these scenarios provide interesting policy options for decision-makers. A large-scale reduction of CO2 emissions is possible in several ways, but each way will cause many problems, since drastic policy measures will have to be introduced, which may affect economic growth and the lifestyles of individuals. 5 figs., 11 tabs., 24 refs.

Consumers' inflation expectations and monetary policy in Europe

OpenAIRE

Berk, J.M.

2000-01-01

This paper analyses the effects of monetary policy decisions on inflation expectations of European consumers. Using a novel approach that does not assume unbiasedness of expectations, which makes use of survey data on expected future as well as perceived past price developments and allows for non-normal peakedness and asymmetry, we convert qualitative survey responses of consumers in various European countries into quantitative time series of inflation expectations. After checking the rationa...

Predictability of the future development of aggressive behavior of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas based on decision tree analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Satomi, Junichiro; Ghaibeh, A Ammar; Moriguchi, Hiroki; Nagahiro, Shinji

2015-07-01

The severity of clinical signs and symptoms of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas (DAVFs) are well correlated with their pattern of venous drainage. Although the presence of cortical venous drainage can be considered a potential predictor of aggressive DAVF behaviors, such as intracranial hemorrhage or progressive neurological deficits due to venous congestion, accurate statistical analyses are currently not available. Using a decision tree data mining method, the authors aimed at clarifying the predictability of the future development of aggressive behaviors of DAVF and at identifying the main causative factors. Of 266 DAVF patients, 89 were eligible for analysis. Under observational management, 51 patients presented with intracranial hemorrhage/infarction during the follow-up period. The authors created a decision tree able to assess the risk for the development of aggressive DAVF behavior. Evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation, the decision tree's accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 85.28%, 88.33%, and 80.83%, respectively. The tree shows that the main factor in symptomatic patients was the presence of cortical venous drainage. In its absence, the lesion location determined the risk of a DAVF developing aggressive behavior. Decision tree analysis accurately predicts the future development of aggressive DAVF behavior.

Analysis of multi-pollutant policies for the U.S. power sector under technology and policy uncertainty using MARKAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Ming-Che; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

2010-01-01

Investments in power generation, pollution controls, and electricity end use equipment are made in the face of uncertainty. Unanticipated events can cause regret-commitments that in retrospect were the wrong choices. We analyze how three uncertainties-electricity demand growth, natural gas prices, and power sector greenhouse gas regulations-could affect electric power sector investment decisions and costs in the U.S. over the next four decades. The effect of multi-pollutant regulations such as the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) upon these decisions and costs is also considered. We use decision trees to structure the problem, defining multiple futures for each uncertainty and then simulating how the U.S. energy market responds to them. A two-stage stochastic version of the energy-economy model MARKAL simulates the market. Relative importance of the uncertainties is assessed using two indices: expected cost of ignoring uncertainty (ECIU) and expected value of perfect information (EVPI). We also calculate the value of policy coordination (VPC), the cost saved by avoiding surprise changes in policy. An example shows how a stochastic program can be used to compute these indices. The analysis shows that the possibility of greenhouse gas regulation is the most important uncertainty by these measures.

Dark Matter: The "Gravitational Pull" of Maternalist Discourses on Politicians' Decision Making for Early Childhood Policy in Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Bown, Kathryn; Sumsion, Jennifer; Press, Frances

2011-01-01

The article reports on a study investigating influences on Australian politicians' decision making for early childhood education and care (ECEC) policy. The astronomical concept of dark matter is utilised as a metaphor for considering normalising, and therefore frequently difficult to detect and disrupt, influences implicated in politicians'…

Policies for Promotion of Electric Vehicles and Factors Influencing Consumers’ Purchasing Decisions of Low Emission Vehicles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matjaz Knez

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Recently different studies of green transport have become interesting for policy makers,car manufacturers, customers and energy suppliers. Many stakeholders from the publicand private sectors are investing a lot of effort to identify consumer behaviour for futureimprovements in development of green products and effective strategies, which couldaccelerate the transition to sustainable future. This paper presents the effects of electricvehicle promotional policies and customer preferences about alternative fuel vehicles.This study has shown that the electric vehicle promotional policies adopted in Sloveniahave been unsuccessful, as the share of first-time registered electric vehicles in 2013 wasbelow 1%. For different segments of people whose opinions about low emission vehiclesdiffer, different measures must be adopted. When designing promotional policies focusmust be on the most relevant factors such as the total vehicle price and fuel economy.

Policy issues arising from the judgmental nature of risk-based decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mcquaid, J.

1998-01-01

The regulation of risks is pervaded by the need to exercise judgement. The scientific basis for characterising risk problems and judging the effectiveness of possible controls is often uncertain, lacking information and understanding of the processes involved. However, the risk management measures adopted will not be determined by science alone, but must reflect sociological, economic, ethical and political considerations. These in turn are in themselves judgmental, informed to a greater or lesser extent by empirical evidence and influenced by the prevailing climate of public opinion. The overall process provides a rich source of confusion for the public as to the status of the eventual policy decision, with important implications for the manner in which the process of communication is managed. The important role of judgement, as distinct from formal analysis, at every stage needs to be reflected in risk communication. The engagement of those who bear the risks, and of other interested parties in the exercise of judgement must be tailored to nature of the judgement and to the decision to be made. Appropriate procedures need to be adopted to enable that engagement. Although the issue has come into particular prominence in recent years, it is not a new phenomenon. The presentation will describe the arrangements that have been developed in the UK over the past 25 years, and will be illustrated by some specific examples of risk decision making on issues of high public concern. (author)

Reducing the Potential for Future Financial Crises: A Framework for Macro-Prudential Policy in Canada

OpenAIRE

Paul Jenkins; Gordon Thiessen

2012-01-01

Canada needs a policy framework and new governance structure beyond what is in place to reduce the potential for future financial crises. The authors make the case for establishing a formal committee with a mandate to identify potential systemic risks and to act promptly before they materialize. While Canada's system of regulating and supervising financial institutions might hold up as a model of good performance, changes can and should be made, say Jenkins and Thiessen. Future crises undoubt...

Partnership for the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, R.I.

1993-01-01

The benefits of partnerships in the profitable exploration, development, and management of the world's hydrocarbon resources are discussed. A unique period in history is being experienced in the oil and gas industry. Over the next decade, all of the participants will be faced with a number of opportunities and challenges. No longer will having technical expertise or control of vast resources alone create wealth for a company or country. Long-term profitability will result from decisions and policies made by the owners of these assets. Prudent, efficient, and profitable management of resources through partnership will benefit both parties and enrich the standard of living for future generations

Multicriteria-based decision aiding technique for assessing energy policy elements-demonstration to a case in Bangladesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahman, Md. Mizanur; Paatero, Jukka V.; Lahdelma, Risto; Wahid, Mazlan A.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A multicriteria technique for assessing energy policy elements has been proposed. • Energy policy elements have been examined based on assigned criteria. • This assessment gives results which are representative of all stakeholders. • Policy elements which are chosen by this method promote sustainability. - Abstract: The adverse environmental consequences and diminishing trend of fossil fuel reserves indicate a serious need for vibrant and judicious energy policy. Energy policy involves a number of stakeholders, and needs to incorporate the interests and requirements of all the key stakeholder groups. This paper presents a methodological technique to assist with formulating, evaluating, and promoting the energy policy of a country in a transparent and representative way with clear scientific justifications and balanced assessments. The multicriteria decision analysis approach has been a widely used technique for evaluating different alternatives based on the interests of a multitude of stakeholders, and goals. This paper utilizes the SMAA (Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis) tool, which can evaluate different alternatives by incorporating multiple criteria, in order to examine the preferences of different policy elements. We further extend this technique by incorporating the LEAP model (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) to assess the emission impacts of different policy elements. We demonstrate the application of this evaluation technique by an analysis of four hypothetical policy elements namely Business-as usual (BAU), Renewables (REN), Renewable-biomass only (REN-b), and Energy conservation and efficient technologies (ECET). These are applied to the case of sharing fuel sources for power generation for the Bangladesh power sector. We found that the REN-b and REN policy elements were the best and second best alternatives with 41% and 32% acceptability respectively. This technique gives transparent information for

Outline of the Future Agenda for Environmental Policy in the Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

An overview is given of the targets for the environmental policy in the Netherlands, focusing on the strict decoupling of economic development and changes in the environmental impacts. Also, the Dutch government aims at decreasing the environmental effects of the past in order to minimize the consequences for public health and the environment. Finally, transferring environmental problems to other parts of the world of future generations must be prevented as much as possible. Targets concern Economy and innovation; Public health and safety; Energy and climate; and Nature and biodiversity [nl

A difficult balancing act: policy actors' perspectives on using economic evaluation to inform health-care coverage decisions under the Universal Health Insurance Coverage scheme in Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Teerawattananon, Yot; Russell, Steve

2008-03-01

In Thailand, policymakers have come under increasing pressure to use economic evaluation to inform health-care resource allocation decisions, especially after the introduction of the Universal Health Insurance Coverage (UC) scheme. This article presents qualitative findings from research that assessed a range of policymakers' perspectives on the acceptability of using economic evaluation for the development of health-care benefit packages in Thailand. The policy analysis examined their opinions about existing decision-making processes for including health interventions in the UC benefit package, their understanding of health economic evaluation, and their attitudes, acceptance, and values relating to the use of the method. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 36 policy actors who play a major role or have some input into health resource allocation decisions within the Thai health-care system. These included 14 senior policymakers at the national level, 5 hospital directors, 10 health professionals, and 7 academics. Policy actors thought that economic evaluation information was relevant for decision-making because of the increasing need for rationing and more transparent criteria for making UC coverage decisions. Nevertheless, they raised several difficulties with using economic evaluation that would pose barriers to its introduction, including distrust in the method, conflicting philosophical positions and priorities compared to that of "health maximization," organizational allegiances, existing decision-making procedures that would be hard to change, and concerns about political pressure and acceptability.

Policy-Led Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Crops: Testing for Increased Risk Rather Than Profiling Phenotypes Leads to Predictable and Transparent Decision-Making