WorldWideScience

Sample records for future law project

  1. Projecting future sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

  2. Project report about the motives of the future law project 'security and nuclear clearness'; Projet d'expose des motifs du futur projet de loi ''securite et transparence nucleaire''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-11-01

    This project aims to prevent the hazards in relation with nuclear activities for man and his environment, as well to reinforce information on risks associated to these activities and on measures taken to avoid them. (N.C.)

  3. FutureGen Project Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cabe, Jim; Elliott, Mike

    2010-09-30

    This report summarizes the comprehensive siting, permitting, engineering, design, and costing activities completed by the FutureGen Industrial Alliance, the Department of Energy, and associated supporting subcontractors to develop a first of a kind near zero emissions integrated gasification combined cycle power plant and carbon capture and storage project (IGCC-CCS). With the goal to design, build, and reliably operate the first IGCC-CCS facility, FutureGen would have been the lowest emitting pulverized coal power plant in the world, while providing a timely and relevant basis for coal combustion power plants deploying carbon capture in the future. The content of this report summarizes key findings and results of applicable project evaluations; modeling, design, and engineering assessments; cost estimate reports; and schedule and risk mitigation from initiation of the FutureGen project through final flow sheet analyses including capital and operating reports completed under DOE award DE-FE0000587. This project report necessarily builds upon previously completed siting, design, and development work executed under DOE award DE-FC26- 06NT4207 which included the siting process; environmental permitting, compliance, and mitigation under the National Environmental Policy Act; and development of conceptual and design basis documentation for the FutureGen plant. For completeness, the report includes as attachments the siting and design basis documents, as well as the source documentation for the following: • Site evaluation and selection process and environmental characterization • Underground Injection Control (UIC) Permit Application including well design and subsurface modeling • FutureGen IGCC-CCS Design Basis Document • Process evaluations and technology selection via Illinois Clean Coal Review Board Technical Report • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance for slurry-fed gasifier configuration • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance

  4. HRI and the future of law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fosch Villaronga, Eduard; Heldeweg, Michiel A.

    2017-01-01

    Following Sinek’s what-how-why model, this project is about the creation of a dynamic regulatory instrument that co-evolves with robot technology development (what), using a robot and a regulatory impact assessments and evaluation settings (simulation and living labs) for empirical testing (how),

  5. Empirical Laws and Foreseeing the Future of Technological Progress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    António M. Lopes

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Moore’s law (ML is one of many empirical expressions that is used to characterize natural and artificial phenomena. The ML addresses technological progress and is expected to predict future trends. Yet, the “art” of predicting is often confused with the accurate fitting of trendlines to past events. Presently, data-series of multiple sources are available for scientific and computational processing. The data can be described by means of mathematical expressions that, in some cases, follow simple expressions and empirical laws. However, the extrapolation toward the future is considered with skepticism by the scientific community, particularly in the case of phenomena involving complex behavior. This paper addresses these issues in the light of entropy and pseudo-state space. The statistical and dynamical techniques lead to a more assertive perspective on the adoption of a given candidate law.

  6. National space legislation : future perspectives for Malaysian Space Law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saari, Che Zuhaida Binti

    2014-01-01

    This research studies the future perspectives for Malaysian space law. It aims at demonstrating the development of Malaysian outer space activities inclusive of her status with respect to United Nations space conventions and her membership of international and regional space-related organizations. O

  7. National space legislation : future perspectives for Malaysian Space Law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saari, Che Zuhaida Binti

    2014-01-01

    This research studies the future perspectives for Malaysian space law. It aims at demonstrating the development of Malaysian outer space activities inclusive of her status with respect to United Nations space conventions and her membership of international and regional space-related organizations. O

  8. The Roman Law Tradition and Its Future Development in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zhenmin

    2006-01-01

    In Late Qing Dynasty,the Chinese Law Family was disintegrated and the Western Law was introduced into China.Finally,China adopted the European continental Roman law tradition.This paper analyzes the reason for China's borrowing of such legal system and probes its development and reform in the later years.It also tries to answer the question of what will be the possible impact upon the current Chinese legal system since China now implements the policy of "one country two systems" in order to realize its reunification with Hong Kong,Macau and Taiwan.In addition,it will make some prediction upon the future development of Chinese legal system.

  9. The OpenLaws project: Big Open Legal Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winkels, R.; Schweighofer, E; Kummer, F.; Hötzendorfer, W.

    2015-01-01

    In the OpenLaws project we aim to deliver a platform that enables users to find legal information more easily, organize it the way they want and share it with others. Together with users we intend to create a network of legislation, case law, legal literature and legal experts - both on a national a

  10. FuturICT: FET Flagship Pilot project

    OpenAIRE

    Bishop S.; Helbing D.; Lukowicz P.; Conte R

    2011-01-01

    The ultimate goal of the FuturICT Flagship is to understand and manage complex, global, socially interactive systems, with a focus on sustainability and resilience. Revealing the hidden laws and processes underlying societies constitutes the most pressing scientific grand challenge of our century. Integrating the three components of ICT, Complexity Science and the Social Sciences will lead to a paradigm shift, facilitating a symbiotic co-evolution of ICT and society. Data from our complex glo...

  11. Response to the European Commission's consultation on the future of European company law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Böckli, P.; Davies, P.; Ferran, E.; Ferrarini, G.; Garrido, J.; Hopt, K.; Pietrancosta, A.; Pistor, K.; Skog, R.; Soltysinski, S.; Winter, J.; Wymeersch, E.

    2012-01-01

    This paper contains the views of the European Company Law Experts (ECLE) on the future of European company law. The paper accompanies the responses of the European Company Law Experts to the European Commission’s Consultation on the future of European Company Law of spring 2012. In the first part of

  12. Project Prometheus and Future Entry Probe Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spilker, Thomas R.

    2005-01-01

    A viewgraph presentation on project Prometheus and future entry probe missions is shown. The topics include: 1) What Is Project Prometheus?; 2) What Capabilities Can Project Prometheus Offer? What Mission Types Are Being Considered?; 3) Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO); 4) How Are Mission Opportunities Changing?; 5) Missions Of Interest a Year Ago; 6) Missions Now Being Considered For Further Study; 7) Galileo-Style (Conventional) Probe Delivery; 8) Galileo-Style Probe Support; 9) Conventional Delivery and Support of Multiple Probes; 10) How Entry Probe Delivery From an NEP Vehicle Is Different; and 11) Concluding Remarks.

  13. Projecting the future levels of Lake Victoria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderkelen, Inne; van Lipzig, Nicole; Thiery, Wim

    2017-04-01

    Lake Victoria directly sustains 30 million people living in its basin and 200 000 fishermen operating from its shores. As the one of the two sources of the Nile River, it also supports natural resources that impact the livelihood of over 300 million people living in the Nile basin. The outlet to the Nile is controlled by two hydropower dams. The water balance of Lake Victoria is controlled both by climatic conditions (precipitation and evaporation) and human management (dam outflow). Future climate simulations with a high resolution coupled lake-land-atmosphere model project decreasing mean precipitation and increasing evaporation over Lake Victoria. As these two are important factors in the water balance of Lake Victoria, these projected changes may induce a drop in future levels of Lake Victoria. Moreover, as Lake Victoria is also a relatively shallow lake, lake surface area may decrease as well. Here we present a water balance model for Lake Victoria that provides lake level and extent as output. We first force our model with observational input (new satellite products providing high quality precipitation and evaporation data) and evaluate it using measured lake levels. The skill of the model is subsequently assessed by forcing it with present-day regional climate simulations (CORDEX evaluation simulations). In a third step the future lake levels and surface area changes of Lake Victoria are simulated by forcing the model with CORDEX projections under RCP4.5 and 8.5. Finally, the role of human decisions regarding future dam outflow are investigated.

  14. Civil Law and Catholic Education: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaughnessy, Mary Angela

    2009-01-01

    This article will address the sources of the laws impacting Catholic education, particularly constitutional law, statutory and regulatory law, and contract law. Specific issues related to these areas will be discussed, including discipline, lifestyle and belief, negligence, sexual abuse, boundaries, confidentiality, cyberspace, and safety. The…

  15. Future Fleet Project. What Can We Afford

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-21

    planned growth in the Navy’s shipbuilding accounts . What are the alternatives for prioritizing this spending? Both the former and current Chiefs of...in its projected unit costs , the LCS program stabilized around two designs, which are both currently  in production. An issue for future fleet... currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES

  16. The Future of Project Management in Technical Communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kampf, Constance

    2006-01-01

    Project Management increasing shapes workplace communication, especially when technical commuicators participate in cross-disciplinary development teams. This paper looks at the future of project management in technical communication and argues for a communicative approach to project management f...

  17. The new Waste Law: Challenging opportunity for future landfill operation in Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meidiana, Christia; Gamse, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The Waste Law No. 18/2008 Article 22 and 44 require the local governments to run environmentally sound landfill. Due to the widespread poor quality of waste management in Indonesia, this study aimed to identify the current situation by evaluating three selected landfills based on the ideal conditions of landfill practices, which are used to appraise the capability of local governments to adapt to the law. The results indicated that the local governments have problems of insufficient budget, inadequate equipment, uncollected waste and unplanned future landfill locations. All of the selected landfills were partially controlled landfills with open dumping practices predominating. In such inferior conditions the implementation of sanitary landfill is not necessarily appropriate. The controlled landfill is a more appropriate solution as it offers lower investment and operational costs, makes the selection of a new landfill site unnecessary and can operate with a minimum standard of infrastructure and equipment. The sustainability of future landfill capacity can be maintained by utilizing the old landfill as a profit-oriented landfill by implementing a landfill gas management or a clean development mechanism project. A collection fee system using the pay-as-you-throw principle could increase the waste income thereby financing municipal solid waste management.

  18. The Bifurcation of International Law: Two Futures for the International Rule of Law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nollkaemper, A.

    2011-01-01

    This short paper argues that in the next decades we are likely to see a fundamental separation in the form and contents of the international rule of law. In a sizeable, but relatively small group of states, international law transforms itself from its international roots and interconnects and

  19. School Transportation Issues, Laws and Concerns: Implications for Future Administrators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durick, Jody M.

    2010-01-01

    Nearly all building administrators are confronted with a variety of transportation issues. Challenges, concerns and questions can arise from various aspects, including student misbehaviors, transportation laws and its implications at the school level, to importance and implementation of a school bus safety program. As new and upcoming future…

  20. Future healthcare professionals’ knowledge about the Argentinean abortion law

    OpenAIRE

    Provenzano-Castro, Belén; Oizerovich, Silvia; Stray-Pedersen, Babill

    2016-01-01

    Objectives We assessed healthcare students’ knowledge and opinions on Argentinian abortion law and identified differences between first- and final-year healthcare students. Methods In this cross-sectional study, self-administered anonymous questionnaires were administered to 760 first- and 695 final-year students from different fields of study (medicine, midwifery, nursing, radiology, nutrition, speech therapy, and physiotherapy) of the School of Medicine at the University of Buenos Aires, in...

  1. The human genome project and the future of medical practice ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The human genome project and the future of medical practice. ... the planning stages of the human genome project, the technology and sequence data ... the quality of healthcare available in the resource-rich and the resource-poor countries.

  2. Family Medicine Curriculum Resource Project: the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stearns, Jeffrey A; Stearns, Marjorie A; Paulman, Paul M; Chessman, Alexander W; Davis, Ardis K; Sherwood, Roger A; Sheets, Kent J; Steele, David J; Matson, Christine C

    2007-01-01

    Under contract to the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), the Society of Teachers of Family Medicine (STFM) created an undergraduate medical education curricular resource designed to train physicians to practice in the 21st century. An interdisciplinary group of more than 35 educators worked for 4 years to create the Family Medicine Curriculum Resource (FMCR). By consensus, the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) competencies were adopted as the theoretical framework for this project. The FMCR provides materials for the preclerkship years, the third-year family medicine clerkship, the postclerkship year, and faculty development, as well as guidance for integrating topics of special interest to the federal government (such as, geriatrics, Healthy People 2010, genetics, informatics) into a 4-year continuum of medical education. There are challenges inherent in implementing each component of the FMCR. For example, can the ACGME competency-based approach be adapted to undergraduate medical education? Can the densely packed preclerkship years be adapted to include more focused effort on developing these competencies, and whose job is it anyway? What is "core" to being a competent clinician, and what information can be obtained when needed from medical informatics sources? Will family medicine educators embrace the FMCR recommendations for their third-year clerkships? Will exit assessment of the competency levels of graduating medical students be achieved, and can it make them more capable residents? Can faculty in different clinical and educational settings integrate the teaching of "how to learn" into their repertoire? How will faculty development innovation progress in a time of increasing emphasis on clinical productivity? Developing a common language and adoption of core competencies for all levels of medical education is imperative in a society that is focusing on improving health care quality and outcomes. The FMCR Project

  3. The Development of ‘Project Competence’ of Future Teachers

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana Zhernovnykova; Olga Mishchenko; Osova Olga

    2016-01-01

    The essential characteristics and a structure of project competence of future teachers are revealed in the article. The authors notice that, to put into practice projection, that is, to have a project competence, certain skills such as analytical, gnostic, research, diagnostic, creative and reflective skills should be developed in a future teacher. Since project skills require a combination with other specific narrow methodological skills, the authors have carried to them also reflective, res...

  4. Peninsular Florida future scenarios integrated project

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This is a integrated scenario project to the Florida state line that incorporates updated critical land and water identification project layers with a decision...

  5. Hubble Tarantula Treasury Project - IV. The extinction law

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Marchi, Guido; Panagia, Nino; Sabbi, Elena; Lennon, Daniel; Anderson, Jay; van der Marel, Roeland; Cignoni, Michele; Grebel, Eva K.; Larsen, Søren; Zaritsky, Dennis; Zeidler, Peter; Gouliermis, Dimitrios; Aloisi, Alessandra

    2016-02-01

    We report on the study of interstellar extinction across the Tarantula Nebula (30 Doradus), in the Large Magellanic Cloud, using observations from the Hubble Tarantula Treasury Project in the 0.3-1.6 μm range. The considerable and patchy extinction inside the nebula causes about 3500 red clump stars to be scattered along the reddening vector in the colour-magnitude diagrams, thereby allowing an accurate determination of the reddening slope in all bands. The measured slope of the reddening vector is remarkably steeper in all bands than in the the Galactic diffuse interstellar medium. At optical wavelengths, the larger ratio of total-to-selective extinction, namely RV = 4.5 ± 0.2, implies the presence of a grey component in the extinction law, due to a larger fraction of large grains. The extra large grains are most likely ices from supernova ejecta and will significantly alter the extinction properties of the region until they sublimate in 50-100 Myr. We discuss the implications of this extinction law for the Tarantula Nebula and in general for regions of massive star formation in galaxies. Our results suggest that fluxes of strongly star-forming regions are likely to be underestimated by a factor of about 2 in the optical.

  6. Future NAS Flight Demand Generation Tool Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Aviation and Air Traffic Management researchers are increasingly utilizing complex regional or NAS-wide simulations to evaluate future concepts. These analyses...

  7. Penal law of the future: directions of reforming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grishko A.Ya.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The most urgent problems of the penal legislation application are stated: social and economic support of post-penitentiary adaptation; lack of legal status of the RF subject in the penitentiary legal relations; direct dependence of many rights and legitimate interests of convicts upon judicial and administrative discretion; absence of a mechanism of implementing penal norms and subordinate normative legal acts, monitoring their implementation. The provisions of the RF Penal Code, contradicting the view established in the penal law theory regarding the penitentiary legal relations termination after the release of convict from further punishment, are revealed. The main technical and legal defects of the penal legislation in the inter-branch and interdisciplinary spheres are called (goals and objectives of the penal law are defined, goals and objectives of the punishment execution aren’t; principles of guilt and justice are fixed in the Criminal Code, but aren’t fixed in the Penal Code; incomparability of the guarantees of exercising the right to qualified legal assistance by ordinary citizens and convicts, etc.. The problem of the substitution of legislator by penal agency in regulating convicts’ rights and legitimate interests is stated. The provisions to be implemented in new penal legislation are expressed: 1 punishment in form of imprisonment should be in the very fact of isolation from society, otherwise the convict’s legal status shouldn’t differ from other citizens; 2 the list of prohibitions and restrictions for prisoners should be determined at the legislative level; 3 penal legislation should be exempt from evaluation terms and norms-exceptions, regarding convicts rights’ restrictions.

  8. New and future projects; Nye og fremtidige prosjekter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skavang, Kristian [Saga Petroleum A/S, Forus (Norway)

    1999-07-01

    The activities of Saga Petroleum ASA with respect to new and future projects are focused on Snorre, Vigdis, Tordis etc. on Tampen, Haltenbanken, Varg, Voering - Gjallar, an oil project north of Shetland, a project west of Rockall, a project west of Ireland, and land-based projects in Libya and Iran. Several technological developments are needed: (1) Smart wells, including development of well equipment, underwater systems prepared for future well equipment, faster data communication, (2) Underwater processing, (3) Developments of high pressure/high temperature technology and equipment, (4) Deepwater technology, (5) Reduced intervention costs and more reliable ROV operations. Finally there is some discussion of cooperation with the industry.

  9. Future healthcare professionals' knowledge about the Argentinean abortion law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provenzano-Castro, Belén; Oizerovich, Silvia; Stray-Pedersen, Babill

    2016-03-28

    We assessed healthcare students' knowledge and opinions on Argentinian abortion law and identified differences between first- and final-year healthcare students. In this cross-sectional study, self-administered anonymous questionnaires were administered to 760 first- and 695 final-year students from different fields of study (medicine, midwifery, nursing, radiology, nutrition, speech therapy, and physiotherapy) of the School of Medicine at the University of Buenos Aires, in 2011-2013. Compared to first-year students, a higher percentage of final-year students knew that abortion is legally restricted in Argentina (p abortion is legal: woman's life risk (87.4% last vs. 79.1% first year), rape of a woman with developmental disability (66.2% first vs. 85.4% last-year; p abortion is legally restricted in Argentina, misconceptions regarding circumstances of legal abortion were observed; this may be due to the fact that abortion is inadequately covered in the medical curricula. Medical schools should ensure that sexual and reproductive health topics are an integral part of their curricula. Healthcare providers who are aware of the legality of abortion are more likely to provide the public with sound information and ensure abortions are appropriately performed.

  10. Costing Future Complex and Novel Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    and Data Base The project histories can also be related to the quantitative data sourced from the research. This is data in both raw and semi...research presented in this report was supported by the Acquisition Research Program of the Graduate School of Business & Public Policy at the Naval...at Manchester Business School, where he carried out two NPS-funded projects looking at the role of costing and business models in operations and

  11. ITPACK project: Past, present, and future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kincaid, D.R.; Hayes, L.J.; Young, D.M. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    1994-12-31

    A status report is given on past, present, and future work in the development of research-oriented software packages. The authors` current and future work involves the following areas of research and associated software development: (1) Parallel Iterative Software Using Kernels; (2) Visual Programming; (3) Research on Iterative Algorithms; (4) Objective-oriented Design. The overall objective of this research is to advance iterative methods software technology.

  12. Projecting the Future for Design Science Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baskerville, Richard; Pries-Heje, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Design science research should be relevant, valuable, purposeful and prescriptive. Its value as a relevant source of prescriptions implies the practical usefulness of its results beyond a single expository instantiation. But propagation of such design science products as design principles and the......-oriented to descriptive research and argue that a more appropriate framing for design science research is projectability and entrenchment. The paper includes recommendations to increase the projectability of design science research.......Design science research should be relevant, valuable, purposeful and prescriptive. Its value as a relevant source of prescriptions implies the practical usefulness of its results beyond a single expository instantiation. But propagation of such design science products as design principles....... In this paper we discuss the propagation issues around generalizing design science research across multiple contexts and propose alternative propagation concepts of projectability and entrenchment. The existing concepts around generalizability have issues that make them less suitable for design science research...

  13. The Future of Project Management in Technical Communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kampf, Constance

    2006-01-01

    Project Management increasing shapes workplace communication, especially when technical commuicators participate in cross-disciplinary development teams. This paper looks at the future of project management in technical communication and argues for a communicative approach to project management...... for technical communication students. The Project Management course in the International Bachelor Program of Marketing and Management Communication at the Aarhus School of Business is described, and the implications fortechnical communication curricula are discussed....

  14. Protecting the environment for future generations. Principles and actors in international environmental law

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Proelss, Alexander (ed.) [Trier Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Environmental and Technology Law

    2017-08-01

    This book compiles the written versions of presentations held at the occasion of an international symposium entitled ''Protecting the Environment for Future Generations - Principles and Actors in International Environmental Law''. The symposium was organized by the Institute of Environmental and Technology Law of Trier University (IUTR) on the basis of a cooperation scheme with the Environmental Law Institute of the Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria, and took place in Trier on 29-30 October 2015. It brought together a distinguished group of experts from Europe and abroad to address current issues of international and European environmental law. The main objective of the symposium was to take stock of the actors and principles of international and European environmental law, and to analyze how and to what extent these principles have been implemented on the supranational and domestic legal levels.

  15. Future development of project management competences.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silvius, A.J.G.; Batenburg, R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a study into the expected development of the competences of the project manager in the year 2027. The study was performed amongst the members of IPMA-Netherlands during the summer of 2007. In the study the 46 competences of the International Competence Baseline 3 (ICB 3) were

  16. Dance: A Projection for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Tuyl, Marian, Ed.

    1968-01-01

    Experienced and knowledgeable artists, scholars and educators met to discuss the fundamental issues of dance as a performing art and as a discipline in higher education. During Phase I of the conference, participants explored the role and nature of dance in education and developed curricular guidelines. A blueprint for a 25-year projection of…

  17. The Development of ‘Project Competence’ of Future Teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana Zhernovnykova

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The essential characteristics and a structure of project competence of future teachers are revealed in the article. The authors notice that, to put into practice projection, that is, to have a project competence, certain skills such as analytical, gnostic, research, diagnostic, creative and reflective skills should be developed in a future teacher. Since project skills require a combination with other specific narrow methodological skills, the authors have carried to them also reflective, research, the ability to find multiple problem solutions, group, management, presentation and communication skills.

  18. Hubble Tarantula Treasury Project. IV. The extinction law

    CERN Document Server

    De Marchi, Guido; Sabbi, Elena; Lennon, Daniel; Anderson, Jay; van der Marel, Roeland; Cignoni, Michele; Grebel, Eva K; Larsen, Soeren; Zaritsky, Dennis; Zeidler, Peter; Gouliermis, Dimitrios; Aloisi, Alessandra

    2015-01-01

    We report on the study of interstellar extinction across the Tarantula nebula (30 Doradus), in the Large Magellanic Cloud, using observations from the Hubble Tarantula Treasury Project in the 0.3 - 1.6 micron range. The considerable and patchy extinction inside the nebula causes about 3500 red clump stars to be scattered along the reddening vector in the colour-magnitude diagrams, thereby allowing an accurate determination of the reddening slope in all bands. The measured slope of the reddening vector is remarkably steeper in all bands than in the the Galactic diffuse interstellar medium. At optical wavelengths, the larger ratio of total-to-selective extinction, namely Rv = 4.5 +/- 0.2, implies the presence of a grey component in the extinction law, due to a larger fraction of large grains. The extra large grains are most likely ices from supernova ejecta and will significantly alter the extinction properties of the region until they sublimate in 50 - 100 Myr. We discuss the implications of this extinction la...

  19. Law project relative to the energy markets; Projet de loi relatif aux marches energetiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-09-25

    This document presents the law project relative to the energy markets. It aims to open the french gas market to the competition and defines the gas utilities obligations. The first part presents the main topics of the law: the natural gas distribution access, the natural gas sector regulation, the gas utilities, the natural gas transport and distribution, the underground storage, the control and penalties. The second part details the commission works concerning this law project. (A.L.B.)

  20. Present and future of the OTELO project

    CERN Document Server

    Ramón-Pérez, M; Cepa, J; Pérez-García, A M; Alfaro, E J; Castañeda, H; Ederoclite, A; González-Serrano, J I; González, J J; Gallego, J; Sánchez-Portal, M

    2015-01-01

    OTELO is an emission-line object survey carried out with the red tunable filter of the instrument OSIRIS at the GTC, whose aim is to become the deepest emission-line object survey to date. With 100% of the data of the first pointing finally obtained in June 2014, we present here some aspects of the processing of the data and the very first results of the OTELO survey. We also explain the next steps to be followed in the near future.

  1. UAS Integration in the NAS Project and Future Autonomy Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Charles W.

    2014-01-01

    This presentation highlights NASA use of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and related technologies for civil purposes. This briefing will give more insight into the UAS projects progress and future goals.

  2. Advanced Curation For Current and Future Extraterrestrial Sample Collections Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This is a planned three-year project to develop  extraterrestrial sample curation techniques and equipment to prepare for future human and robotic sample return...

  3. Experimental Testing in the Future Internet PERIMETER Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Eileen; Power, Gemma; Grant, Frances Cleary

    The Future Internet faces many challenges for new Internet architectures, protocols and services requiring early experimentation and testing in large-scale environments. Furthermore, the complexity of the software and technologies running on the Future Internet will require more innovative and different approaches to the testing process. This paper examines these requirements and challenges and demonstrates how they are dealt with in the Telecommunications Software and Systems Group using a case study of the Future Internet project; PERIMETER. Details of the testing and experimental methodologies and the role of testbed activities involved in this Quality of Experience network mobility project to develop and adapt to the needs of the Future Internet are provided. The paper concludes with observations of the further developments and innovations required to achieve an end-to-end solution for experimental testing in PERIMETER, and more generally for other Future Internet projects.

  4. Project Management 2027; The Future of Project Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drs. A.J.G. Silvius

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a study into the expected development of the competences op the project manager in the year 2027. The study was performed amongst the members of IPMA-Netherlands during the summer of 2007. In the study the 46 competences of the International Competence Baseline 3 (ICB 3) were

  5. Future perspectives - proposal for Oxford Physiome Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oku, Yoshitaka

    2010-01-01

    The Physiome Project is an effort to understand living creatures using "analysis by synthesis" strategy, i.e., by reproducing their behaviors. In order to achieve its goal, sharing developed models between different computer languages and application programs to incorporate into integrated models is critical. To date, several XML-based markup languages has been developed for this purpose. However, source codes written with XML-based languages are very difficult to read and edit using text editors. An alternative way is to use an object-oriented meta-language, which can be translated to different computer languages and transplanted to different application programs. Object-oriented languages are suitable for describing structural organization by hierarchical classes and taking advantage of statistical properties to reduce the number of parameter while keeping the complexity of behaviors. Using object-oriented languages to describe each element and posting it to a public domain should be the next step to build up integrated models of the respiratory control system.

  6. Focus on the Future of Vocational Education & Training: Scenario Planning Project. An ANTA National Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Ron

    The future of vocational education and training (VET) in Australia was explored in a project that was designed to identify emerging issues in VET, identify challenges and opportunities for strategic thinking about the future of VET, and establish a basis for ongoing consideration of strategic issues. The major project activities were as follows:…

  7. "Law v. National Collegiate Athletic Association": A Guide To How Courts Will Treat Future Antitrust Challenges to NCAA Regulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, Marc R.

    1999-01-01

    Examines the application of antitrust law to National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) rules and regulations through an analysis of the Tenth Circuit's decision in "Law v. National Collegiate Athletic Association." Suggests that the "Law" decision provides a useful framework for the analysis of future antitrust challenges to NCAA rules and…

  8. Projected Future Climate Analogues and Climate "Velocities" in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2014-12-01

    Future climate changes may have significant effects on many North American ecosystems. One way of assessing the potential impacts of future climate change is to use future climate analogues of present climate to evaluate the spatial extent and rates of future climate change. We used a set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future climate simulations (2006-2100) produced under representative concentration pathway scenario RCP8.5. We regridded these data to a 10-km equal-area grid of North America. Modern climate data (1961-1990 30-year mean) were interpolated to the same 10-km grid. The projected future climate data were analyzed using 10-year mean values of monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation and a set of derived annual bioclimatic variables (e.g., growing degree days) considered to be ecologically significant. Potential future climate analogues were calculated for each grid cell using Euclidean distances to identify similar climates occurring elsewhere in North America. We identify regions that are projected to retain climates similar to present in the future (e.g., parts of the southeastern United States) and regions where present climates are projected to become less common or to disappear in the future (e.g., high elevation sites in western North America). We also calculate the rates of change in locations of similar climates (i.e., climate analogue velocities) and compare our results with simulated paleoclimate velocities over the past 22 kyr (from TraCE-21ka transient climate simulations for 22 ka-present). We discuss the implications of these results for conservation and natural resource management in North America. We also describe a web application being developed to allow researchers, decision makers, and members of the public, to visualize, explore, and use the climate analogue data.

  9. The impact of climate mitigation on projections of future drought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. H. Taylor

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Drought is a cumulative event, often difficult to define and involving wide-reaching consequences for agriculture, ecosystems, water availability, and society. Understanding how the occurrence of drought may change in the future and which sources of uncertainty are dominant can inform appropriate decisions to guide drought impacts assessments. Our study considers both climate model uncertainty associated with future climate projections, and future emissions of greenhouse gases (future scenario uncertainty. Four drought indices (the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI, Soil Moisture Anomaly (SMA, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI and the Standardised Runoff Index (SRI are calculated for the A1B and RCP2.6 future emissions scenarios using monthly model output from a 57-member perturbed parameter ensemble of climate simulations of the HadCM3C Earth System model, for the baseline period 1961–1990, and the period 2070–2099 ("the 2080s". We consider where there are statistically significant increases or decreases in the proportion of time spent in drought in the 2080s compared to the baseline. Despite the large range of uncertainty in drought projections for many regions, projections for some regions have a clear signal, with uncertainty associated with the magnitude of change rather than direction. For instance, a significant increase in time spent in drought is generally projected for the Amazon, Central America and South Africa whilst projections for northern India consistently show significant decreases in time spent in drought. Whilst the patterns of changes in future drought were similar between scenarios, climate mitigation, represented by the RCP2.6 scenario, tended to reduce future changes in drought. In general, climate mitigation reduced the area over which there was a significant increase in drought but had little impact on the area over which there was a significant decrease in time spent in drought.

  10. Foaming in Hanford River Protection Project Waste Treatment Plant LAW Evaporation Processes - FY01 Summary Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calloway, T.B.

    2002-07-23

    The LAW evaporation processes currently being designed for the Hanford River Protection Project Waste Treatment Plant are subject to foaming. Experimental simulant studies have been conducted in an effort to achieve an effective antifoam agent suitable to mitigate such foaming.

  11. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    OpenAIRE

    Ettore Bernardoni; Marco Acutis; Domenico Ventrella

    2012-01-01

    The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1), the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB) and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC) were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model ...

  12. Future particle-physics projects in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denisov, D. S. [Fermilab

    2015-08-25

    Basic proposals of experiments aimed at precision measurements of Standard Model parameters and at searches for new particles, including dark-matter particles, are described along with future experimental projects considered by American Physical Society at the meeting in the summer of 2013 and intended for implementation within the next ten to twenty years.

  13. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dornburg, V.; Hermann, B.G.; Patel, M.K.

    2008-01-01

    Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. Thes

  14. Collective futures: how projections about the future of society are related to actions and attitudes supporting social change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bain, Paul G; Hornsey, Matthew J; Bongiorno, Renata; Kashima, Yoshihisa; Crimston, Daniel

    2013-04-01

    We identified the active ingredients in people's visions of society's future ("collective futures") that could drive political behavior in the present. In eight studies (N = 595), people imagined society in 2050 where climate change was mitigated (Study 1), abortion laws relaxed (Study 2), marijuana legalized (Study 3), or the power of different religious groups had increased (Studies 4-8). Participants rated how this future society would differ from today in terms of societal-level dysfunction and development (e.g., crime, inequality, education, technology), people's character (warmth, competence, morality), and their values (e.g., conservation, self-transcendence). These measures were related to present-day attitudes/intentions that would promote/prevent this future (e.g., act on climate change, vote for a Muslim politician). A projection about benevolence in society (i.e., warmth/morality of people's character) was the only dimension consistently and uniquely associated with present-day attitudes and intentions across contexts. Implications for social change theories, political communication, and policy design are discussed.

  15. Medial Temporal Lobe Contributions to Episodic Future Thinking: Scene Construction or Future Projection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palombo, D J; Hayes, S M; Peterson, K M; Keane, M M; Verfaellie, M

    2016-12-01

    Previous research has shown that the medial temporal lobes (MTL) are more strongly engaged when individuals think about the future than about the present, leading to the suggestion that future projection drives MTL engagement. However, future thinking tasks often involve scene processing, leaving open the alternative possibility that scene-construction demands, rather than future projection, are responsible for the MTL differences observed in prior work. This study explores this alternative account. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we directly contrasted MTL activity in 1) high scene-construction and low scene-construction imagination conditions matched in future thinking demands and 2) future-oriented and present-oriented imagination conditions matched in scene-construction demands. Consistent with the alternative account, the MTL was more active for the high versus low scene-construction condition. By contrast, MTL differences were not observed when comparing the future versus present conditions. Moreover, the magnitude of MTL activation was associated with the extent to which participants imagined a scene but was not associated with the extent to which participants thought about the future. These findings help disambiguate which component processes of imagination specifically involve the MTL. Published by Oxford University Press 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  16. JPL Project Information Management: A Continuum Back to the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiz, Julie M.

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the practices and architecture that support information management at JPL. This practice has allowed concurrent use and reuse of information by primary and secondary users. The use of this practice is illustrated in the evolution of the Mars Rovers from the Mars Pathfinder to the development of the Mars Science Laboratory. The recognition of the importance of information management during all phases of a project life cycle has resulted in the design of an information system that includes metadata, has reduced the risk of information loss through the use of an in-process appraisal, shaping of project's appreciation for capturing and managing the information on one project for re-use by future projects as a natural outgrowth of the process. This process has also assisted in connection of geographically disbursed partners into a team through sharing information, common tools and collaboration.

  17. JPL Project Information Management: A Continuum Back to the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiz, Julie M.

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the practices and architecture that support information management at JPL. This practice has allowed concurrent use and reuse of information by primary and secondary users. The use of this practice is illustrated in the evolution of the Mars Rovers from the Mars Pathfinder to the development of the Mars Science Laboratory. The recognition of the importance of information management during all phases of a project life cycle has resulted in the design of an information system that includes metadata, has reduced the risk of information loss through the use of an in-process appraisal, shaping of project's appreciation for capturing and managing the information on one project for re-use by future projects as a natural outgrowth of the process. This process has also assisted in connection of geographically disbursed partners into a team through sharing information, common tools and collaboration.

  18. Future meteorological drought: projections of regional climate models for Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagge, James; Tallaksen, Lena; Rizzi, Jonathan

    2015-04-01

    In response to the major European drought events of the last decade, projecting future drought frequency and severity in a non-stationary climate is a major concern for Europe. Prior drought studies have identified regional hotspots in the Mediterranean and Eastern European regions, but have otherwise produced conflicting results with regard to future drought severity. Some of this disagreement is likely related to the relatively coarse resolution of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and regional averaging, which tends to smooth extremes. This study makes use of the most current Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced with CMIP5 climate projections to quantify the projected change in meteorological drought for Europe during the next century at a fine, gridded scale. Meteorological drought is quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which normalize accumulated precipitation and climatic water balance anomaly, respectively, for a specific location and time of year. By comparing projections for these two indices, the importance of precipitation deficits can be contrasted with the importance of evapotranspiration increases related to temperature changes. Climate projections are based on output from CORDEX (the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), which provides high resolution regional downscaled climate scenarios that have been extensively tested for numerous regions around the globe, including Europe. SPI and SPEI are then calculated on a gridded scale at a spatial resolution of either 0.44 degrees (~50 km) or 0.11 degrees (~12.5km) for the three projected emission pathways (rcp26, rcp45, rcp85). Analysis is divided into two major sections: first validating the models with respect to observed historical trends in meteorological drought from 1970-2005 and then comparing drought severity and frequency during three future time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) to the

  19. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals

    OpenAIRE

    Dornburg, V.; Hermann, B.G.; Patel, M.K.

    2008-01-01

    Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. These scenarios assume benign, moderate, and disadvantageous conditions for biobased chemicals. The scenario analysis yields a broad range of values for the possible market development of white biotech...

  20. Self-defining future projections: exploring the identity function of thinking about the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Lardi, Claudia; Van der Linden, Martial

    2012-01-01

    The act of projecting oneself into meaningful future events may significantly contribute to a person's sense of self and identity. Yet if the role of memories, in particular self-defining memories (SDMs), in grounding the self is now well established, the identity function of anticipated future events has received comparatively little attention. This article introduces the construct of self-defining future projection (SDFP) to address this issue. Two studies show that people can readily identify significant future events that they frequently think about and that convey core information about who they are as individuals. Furthermore, a person's particular style of constructing SDMs is similarly manifested in SDFPs, suggesting that both types of events can be used to ground the self. Notably, people who display a stronger tendency to extract meaning from their past experiences also reflect more about the potential implications of imagined future events. The results further demonstrate that SDMs and SDFPs both give rise to a strong sense of personal continuity over time and are meaningfully related to self-esteem. Together these findings lend support to the idea that a person's sense of self and identity is in part nourished by the anticipation of significant future events.

  1. [Future development of radioecological investigations--new international projects].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanzharova, N I

    2014-01-01

    Information is given on the future development of nuclear power engineering and the need to ensure environmental safety. The complexity of the emerging problems requires a wide international integration of scientific investigations. Also described are ecological projects that have been implemented by the IAER after the Chernobyl NPP accident, as well as a new project, MODARIA, which will pay special attention to the improvement of models for radionuclide transfer and estimation of radiation effects on both humans and biota. The strategy and agenda for the development of radioecological studies in the 21st century are described which are being realized by the nine key research centers (European Radioecology Alliance) under the EC project STAR.

  2. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiogama, H; Stone, D; Emori, S; Takahashi, K; Mori, S; Maeda, A; Ishizaki, Y; Allen, M R

    2016-01-11

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  3. Influence of SST biases on future climate change projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ashfaq, Moetasim [Stanford University, Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Purdue University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Skinner, Christopher B. [Stanford University, Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Purdue University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Diffenbaugh, Noah S. [Stanford University, Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Purdue University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Stanford University, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2011-04-15

    We use a quantile-based bias correction technique and a multi-member ensemble of the atmospheric component of NCAR CCSM3 (CAM3) simulations to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) biases on future climate change projections. The simulations, which cover 1977-1999 in the historical period and 2077-2099 in the future (A1B) period, use the CCSM3-generated SSTs as prescribed boundary conditions. Bias correction is applied to the monthly time-series of SSTs so that the simulated changes in SST mean and variability are preserved. Our comparison of CAM3 simulations with and without SST correction shows that the SST biases affect the precipitation distribution in CAM3 over many regions by introducing errors in atmospheric moisture content and upper-level (lower-level) divergence (convergence). Also, bias correction leads to significantly different precipitation and surface temperature changes over many oceanic and terrestrial regions (predominantly in the tropics) in response to the future anthropogenic increases in greenhouse forcing. The differences in the precipitation response from SST bias correction occur both in the mean and the percent change, and are independent of the ocean-atmosphere coupling. Many of these differences are comparable to or larger than the spread of future precipitation changes across the CMIP3 ensemble. Such biases can affect the simulated terrestrial feedbacks and thermohaline circulations in coupled climate model integrations through changes in the hydrological cycle and ocean salinity. Moreover, biases in CCSM3-generated SSTs are generally similar to the biases in CMIP3 ensemble mean SSTs, suggesting that other GCMs may display a similar sensitivity of projected climate change to SST errors. These results help to quantify the influence of climate model biases on the simulated climate change, and therefore should inform the effort to further develop approaches for reliable climate change projection. (orig.)

  4. The lawful uses of knowledge from the Human Genome Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grad, F.P.

    1994-04-15

    Part I of this study deals with the right to know or not to know personal genetic information, and examines available legal protections of the right of privacy and the adverse effect of the disclosure of genetic information both on employment and insurance interests and on self esteem and protection of personal integrity. The study examines the rationale for the legal protection of privacy as the protection of a public interest. It examines the very limited protections currently available for privacy interests, including genetic privacy interests, and concludes that there is a need for broader, more far-reaching legal protections. The second part of the study is based on the assumption that as major a project as the Human Genome Project, spending billions of dollars on science which is health related, will indeed be applied for preventive and therapeutic public health purposes, as it has been in the past. It also addresses the recurring fear that public health initiatives in the genetic area must evolve a new eugenic agenda, that we must not repeat the miserable discriminatory experiences of the past.

  5. Projection displays and MEMS: timely convergence for a bright future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornbeck, Larry J.

    1995-09-01

    Projection displays and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) have evolved independently, occasionally crossing paths as early as the 1950s. But the commercially viable use of MEMS for projection displays has been illusive until the recent invention of Texas Instruments Digital Light Processing TM (DLP) technology. DLP technology is based on the Digital Micromirror DeviceTM (DMD) microchip, a MEMS technology that is a semiconductor digital light switch that precisely controls a light source for projection display and hardcopy applications. DLP technology provides a unique business opportunity because of the timely convergence of market needs and technology advances. The world is rapidly moving to an all- digital communications and entertainment infrastructure. In the near future, most of the technologies necessary for this infrastrucutre will be available at the right performance and price levels. This will make commercially viable an all-digital chain (capture, compression, transmission, reception decompression, hearing, and viewing). Unfortunately, the digital images received today must be translated into analog signals for viewing on today's televisions. Digital video is the final link in the all-digital infrastructure and DLP technoogy provides that link. DLP technology is an enabler for digital, high-resolution, color projection displays that have high contrast, are bright, seamless, and have the accuracy of color and grayscale that can be achieved only by digital control. This paper contains an introduction to DMD and DLP technology, including the historical context from which to view their developemnt. The architecture, projection operation, and fabrication are presented. Finally, the paper includes an update about current DMD business opportunities in projection displays and hardcopy.

  6. Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandolfi, John M; Connolly, Sean R; Marshall, Dustin J; Cohen, Anne L

    2011-07-22

    Many physiological responses in present-day coral reefs to climate change are interpreted as consistent with the imminent disappearance of modern reefs globally because of annual mass bleaching events, carbonate dissolution, and insufficient time for substantial evolutionary responses. Emerging evidence for variability in the coral calcification response to acidification, geographical variation in bleaching susceptibility and recovery, responses to past climate change, and potential rates of adaptation to rapid warming supports an alternative scenario in which reef degradation occurs with greater temporal and spatial heterogeneity than current projections suggest. Reducing uncertainty in projecting coral reef futures requires improved understanding of past responses to rapid climate change; physiological responses to interacting factors, such as temperature, acidification, and nutrients; and the costs and constraints imposed by acclimation and adaptation.

  7. Aligning BIM with FM: streamlining the process for future projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colleen Kasprzak

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A study performed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST, USA in 2004 found that owners account for approximately $10.6 billion of the $15.8 billion total inadequate interoperability costs of U.S. capital facility projects in 2002. Because of these inefficiency costs, it becomes vital that information produced during the design and construction phases of a project be transferred into operations with maximum leverage to the end users. However, very few owners have defined these informational needs or developed an integration strategy into existing maintenance management systems. To increase operational efficiency, an organization must first develop an understanding of their operating systems, as well as identify how Building Information Modeling (BIM will add value to their daily tasks. The Pennsylvania State University (PSU has a unique opportunity to diversely implement BIM processes because not only does the University act as an owner, but also as designer and construction manager on the majority of projects. The struggle that PSU faces is one that is unique only to owners with a large, existing, multifaceted building inventory. This paper outlines the current initiative by the Office of Physical Plant (OPP, the asset manager at PSU, to develop an information exchange framework between BIM and FM applications to be used internally. As a result of this research, PSU has been able to define owner operational requirements for future projects and develop a flexible integration framework to support additional BIM tasks and information exchanges.

  8. Aligning BIM with FM: streamlining the process for future projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colleen Kasprzak

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A study performed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST, USA in 2004 found that owners account for approximately $10.6 billion of the $15.8 billion total inadequate interoperability costs of U.S. capital facility projects in 2002. Because of these inefficiency costs, it becomes vital that information produced during the design and construction phases of a project be transferred into operations with maximum leverage to the end users. However, very few owners have defined these informational needs or developed an integration strategy into existing maintenance management systems. To increase operational efficiency, an organization must first develop an understanding of their operating systems, as well as identify how Building Information Modeling (BIM will add value to their daily tasks. The Pennsylvania State University (PSU has a unique opportunity to diversely implement BIM processes because not only does the University act as an owner, but also as designer and construction manager on the majority of projects. The struggle that PSU faces is one that is unique only to owners with a large, existing, multifaceted building inventory. This paper outlines the current initiative by the Office of Physical Plant (OPP, the asset manager at PSU, to develop an information exchange framework between BIM and FM applications to be used internally. As a result of this research, PSU has been able to define owner operational requirements for future projects and develop a flexible integration framework to support additional BIM tasks and information exchanges.

  9. NASA Fixed Wing Project: Green Technologies for Future Aircraft Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Rosario, Ruben; Koudelka, John M.; Wahls, Rich; Madavan, Nateri

    2014-01-01

    Commercial aviation relies almost entirely on subsonic fixed wing aircraft to constantly move people and goods from one place to another across the globe. While air travel is an effective means of transportation providing an unmatched combination of speed and range, future subsonic aircraft must improve substantially to meet efficiency and environmental targets.The NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Fixed Wing (FW) Project addresses the comprehensive challenge of enabling revolutionary energy efficiency improvements in subsonic transport aircraft combined with dramatic reductions in harmful emissions and perceived noise to facilitate sustained growth of the air transportation system. Advanced technologies and the development of unconventional aircraft systems offer the potential to achieve these improvements. Multidisciplinary advances are required in aerodynamic efficiency to reduce drag, structural efficiency to reduce aircraft empty weight, and propulsive and thermal efficiency to reduce thrust-specific energy consumption (TSEC) for overall system benefit. Additionally, advances are required to reduce perceived noise without adversely affecting drag, weight, or TSEC, and to reduce harmful emissions without adversely affecting energy efficiency or noise.The paper will highlight the Fixed Wing project vision of revolutionary systems and technologies needed to achieve these challenging goals. Specifically, the primary focus of the FW Project is on the N+3 generation; that is, vehicles that are three generations beyond the current state of the art, requiring mature technology solutions in the 2025-30 timeframe

  10. Projections of Future Summertime Ozone over the U.S.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfister, G. G. [NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States); Walters, Stacy [NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States); Lamarque, J. F. [NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States); Fast, Jerome D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Barth, Mary [NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States); Wong, John [NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States); Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Done, James [NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States); Holland, Greg [NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States); Bruyere, Cindy [NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States); North-West Univ., Potchefstroom (South Africa)

    2014-05-05

    This study uses a regional fully coupled chemistry-transport model to assess changes in surface ozone over the summertime U.S. between present and a 2050 future time period at high spatial resolution (12 km grid spacing) under the SRES A2 climate and RCP8.5 anthropogenic pre-cursor emission scenario. The impact of predicted changes in climate and global background ozone is estimated to increase surface ozone over most of the U.S; the 5th - 95th percentile range for daily 8-hour maximum surface ozone increases from 31-79 ppbV to 30-87 ppbV between the present and future time periods. The analysis of a set of meteorological drivers suggests that these mostly will add to increasing ozone, but the set of simulations conducted does not allow to separate this effect from that through enhanced global background ozone. Statistically the most robust positive feedbacks are through increased temperature, biogenic emissions and solar radiation. Stringent emission controls can counteract these feedbacks and if considered, we estimate large reductions in surface ozone with the 5th-95th percentile reduced to 27-55 ppbV. A comparison of the high-resolution projections to global model projections shows that even though the global model is biased high in surface ozone compared to the regional model and compared to observations, both the global and the regional model predict similar changes in ozone between the present and future time periods. However, on smaller spatial scales, the regional predictions show more pronounced changes between urban and rural regimes that cannot be resolved at the coarse resolution of global model. In addition, the sign of the changes in overall ozone mixing ratios can be different between the global and the regional predictions in certain regions, such as the Western U.S. This study confirms the key role of emission control strategies in future air quality predictions and demonstrates the need for considering degradation of air quality with future

  11. Exploring Teacher Professional Learning for Future-Oriented Schooling: Working Paper 1 from the Back to the Future Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Jane; Bull, Ally

    2014-01-01

    This working paper sets out some of the early findings from a pilot project to explore the qualities that future-oriented teachers might need and how those qualities might be developed. The work began under a New Zealand Council for Educational Research (NZCER) project called Back to the Future and is now part of a Teaching & Learning Research…

  12. Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Zhe; Yang, Zhiyong; Yan, Denghua; Yin, Jun

    2017-01-01

    Investigating changes in extreme precipitation, i.e., maximum precipitation for multiday events, is critical for flood management and risk assessment. Based on the observed daily precipitation from China's Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), extreme precipitation indices corresponding to annual maximum 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation across China from 1961 to 2011 and 2011 to 2050 were calculated. Relative changes in the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period estimates, using 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation, are discussed to represent changes in extreme precipitation in the future. Results show that (1) the spatial distribution of annual maximum precipitation for 1, 3, 15, and 30 days is similar with that of annual precipitation. An increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast was found, with the highest values shown to be in the plain region adjacent to the mountains and coastal area; (2) Comparing the observed and simulated data, it could be seen that climate models have good simulation of 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period events. Absolute relative error is less than 30 % in 80 % in the study area; (3) Extreme precipitation in the future has an increasing trend in China. In the south, extreme precipitation associated with short duration as well as the 50-year return period will likely increase to a comparatively large degree in the future. In the north, extreme precipitation associated with long duration and the 10-year return period will likely see a large increase in the future.

  13. Physics Projects for a Future CERN-LNGS Neutrino Programme

    CERN Document Server

    Picchi, P

    1999-01-01

    We present an overview of the future projects concerning the neutrino oscillation physics in Europe. Recently a joint CERN-LNGS scientific committee has reviewed several proposals both for the study of atmospheric neutrinos and for long (LBL) and short baseline (SBL) neutrino oscillation experiments. The committee has indicated the priority that the European high energy physics community should follows in the field of neutrino physics, namely a new massive, atmospheric neutrino detector and a nu_tau appearance campaign exploiting the new CERN-LNGS Neutrino Facility (NGS), freshly approved by CERN and INFN. The sensitivity and the discovery potential of the whole experimental program in the Super-Kamiokande allowed region are discussed.

  14. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Bernardoni

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

  15. The Midwifery Legacies Project: history, progress, and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore-Davis, Tonia L; McGee, Karen B; Moore, Elaine M; Paine, Lisa L

    2015-01-01

    The Midwifery Legacies Project, formerly known as the OnGoing Group, was founded as an annual greeting card outreach aimed at maintaining contact with midwives as they approached retirement and beyond. In 2009, the importance of documenting personal and professional stories of midwives arose out of a bequest by a midwife who was relatively unknown outside of the community she served. The result has been the evolution of a robust collection of stories, which are known as the 20th Century Midwife Story Collection. Between 2009 and 2014, more than 120 US midwives aged 65 years or older were interviewed by a midwife, a student midwife, or a professional filmmaker. Collectively, these midwives' stories offer an intimate snapshot of the social, political, and cultural influences that have shaped US midwifery during the past half century. Individually, the stories honor and recognize midwives' contributions to the profession and the women they have served. This article details the development, progress, and future directions of the Midwifery Legacies Project. © 2015 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

  16. Future Projections of Trans-Arctic Shipping Potential and Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, S. R.; Smith, L. C.

    2014-12-01

    As the Arctic Ocean transitions towards a seasonally ice-free state, efforts to predict new connections between the Arctic and the global economy are underway. In particular, record lows in September sea ice extent from 2007-2013 have recast Arctic shipping routes as emerging international seaways for export of resources and as potential alternative pathways for global trade. While ensemble-averaged output from sea ice models suggest significant increases in vessel accessibility in September by midcentury (Smith & Stephenson, 2013), the seasonal length and variability of trans-Arctic shipping is not well understood. In addition, differences in ice extent due to inter-model variability reveal significant uncertainties in the magnitude and location of future vessel access. Here we present several scenarios of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping as driven by sea ice output from CMIP5 models. Optimal vessel transits from North America and Europe to the Bering Strait are estimated for two periods representing present-day (2006-2015) and midcentury (2040-2059) conditions under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), assuming Polar Class 6 (PC6) and open-water vessels (OW) with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Results illustrate a range of potential futures for shipping in the Arctic owing to differences in model choice, vessel capability, and climate forcing. Inter-model differences reveal the importance of model choice in devising projections for strategic planning by governments, environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry.

  17. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dornburg, Veronika; Hermann, Barbara G; Patel, Martin K

    2008-04-01

    Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. These scenarios assume benign, moderate, and disadvantageous conditions for biobased chemicals. The scenario analysis yields a broad range of values for the possible market development of white biotechnology chemicals, that is, resulting in a share of white biotechnology chemicals relative to all organic chemicals of about 7 (or 5 million tonnes), 17.5 (or 26 million tonnes), or 38% (or 113 million tonnes) in 2050. We conclude that under favorable conditions, white biotechnology enables substantial savings of nonrenewable energy use (NREU) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to the energy use of the future production of all organic chemicals from fossil resources. Savings of NREU reach up to 17% for starch crops and up to 31% for lignocellulosic feedstock by 2050, and saving percentages for GHG emissions are in a similar range. Parallel to these environmental benefits, economic advantages of up to 75 billion Euro production cost savings arise.

  18. Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Cheryl A; Dunne, John P; Eakin, C Mark; Donner, Simon D

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming-induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias-corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present-day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2-10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20-80% compared with the 'no adaptive response' prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high-frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high-frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and

  19. Influence of climate model variability on projected Arctic shipping futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, Scott R.; Smith, Laurence C.

    2015-11-01

    Though climate models exhibit broadly similar agreement on key long-term trends, they have significant temporal and spatial differences due to intermodel variability. Such variability should be considered when using climate models to project the future marine Arctic. Here we present multiple scenarios of 21st-century Arctic marine access as driven by sea ice output from 10 CMIP5 models known to represent well the historical trend and climatology of Arctic sea ice. Optimal vessel transits from North America and Europe to the Bering Strait are estimated for two periods representing early-century (2011-2035) and mid-century (2036-2060) conditions under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), assuming Polar Class 6 and open-water vessels with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Results illustrate that projected shipping viability of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) depends critically on model choice. The eastern Arctic will remain the most reliably accessible marine space for trans-Arctic shipping by mid-century, while outcomes for the NWP are particularly model-dependent. Omitting three models (GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and MPI-ESM-MR), our results would indicate minimal NWP potential even for routes from North America. Furthermore, the relative importance of the NSR will diminish over time as the number of viable central Arctic routes increases gradually toward mid-century. Compared to vessel class, climate forcing plays a minor role. These findings reveal the importance of model choice in devising projections for strategic planning by governments, environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry.

  20. Teaching Lawyering With Heart in the George Washington University Law School Domestic Violence Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Joan

    2016-10-01

    The Domestic Violence Project (DVP) began as an experiment but has become my favorite model for teaching law students about domestic violence work. The heart of the course is its emphasis on developing awareness of and compassion for the personally and emotionally challenging dimensions of domestic violence work. I achieve this (i) through an intensive and personal dialogue with students through written journals and responses; (ii) by inviting students to consider creative expression for their final project, and (iii) by teaching students about vicarious trauma and encouraging their understanding of it in themselves and other system players. Students seem to experience this course as an oasis of holistic professional and personal growth within the often dispiriting experience of law school.

  1. Projecting the future of Canada's population: assumptions, implications, and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beaujot, Roderic

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available After considering the assumptions for fertility, mortality and international migration, this paper looks at implications of the evolving demographics for population growth, labour force, retirement, and population distribution. With the help of policies favouring gender equity and supporting families of various types, fertility in Canada could avoid the particularly low levels seen in some countries, and remain at levels closer to 1.6 births per woman. The prognosis in terms of both risk factors and treatment suggests further reductions in mortality toward a life expectancy of 85. On immigration, there are political interests for levels as high as 270,000 per year, while levels of 150,000 correspond to the long term post-war average. The future will see slower population growth, and due to migration more than natural increase. International migration of some 225,000 per year can enable Canada to avoid population decline, and sustain the size of the labour force, but all scenarios show much change in the relative size of the retired compared to the labour force population. According to the ratio of persons aged 20-64 to that aged 65 and over, there were seven persons at labour force ages per person at retirement age in 1951, compared to five in 2001 and probably less than 2.5 in 2051. Growth that is due to migration more so than natural increase will accentuate the urbanization trend and the unevenness of the population distribution over space. Past projections have under-projected the mortality improvements and their impact on the relative size of the population at older age groups. Policies regarding fertility, mortality and migration could be aimed at avoiding population decline and reducing the effect of aging, but there is lack of an institutional basis for policy that would seek to endogenize population.

  2. Criminal Law in Nigeria in the Last 53 Years: Trends and Prospects for the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akeem Olajide Bello

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The article is an overview of developments in substantive criminal law in Nigeria in the last 53 years. It examines the sharing of constitutional legislative powers to enact criminal laws between the federal (national government and the state (local governments. The examination of federal laws revealed proactive legislative activity responding to emerging local and international criminal law issues. The main development at the state level is the introduction by States in Northern Nigeria of Sharia Penal Codes and the enactment of the Criminal Law of Lagos State 2011. A common trend is the entrenchment of death penalty as punishment for some crimes. Implications: While federal criminal laws have responded to emerging realties, state criminal laws have generally failed to respond to emerging issues at the state level. Consequently, in most of the southern states criminal laws introduced in 1916 have continued to apply. Value: The paper demonstrates the need for southern States to reform their criminal laws to respond to emerging realties, the federal government to respond to some outstanding criminal law issues and calls for a suspension of death penalty and a revaluation of its continued relevance.

  3. Zipf's word frequency law in natural language: a critical review and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piantadosi, Steven T

    2014-10-01

    The frequency distribution of words has been a key object of study in statistical linguistics for the past 70 years. This distribution approximately follows a simple mathematical form known as Zipf's law. This article first shows that human language has a highly complex, reliable structure in the frequency distribution over and above this classic law, although prior data visualization methods have obscured this fact. A number of empirical phenomena related to word frequencies are then reviewed. These facts are chosen to be informative about the mechanisms giving rise to Zipf's law and are then used to evaluate many of the theoretical explanations of Zipf's law in language. No prior account straightforwardly explains all the basic facts or is supported with independent evaluation of its underlying assumptions. To make progress at understanding why language obeys Zipf's law, studies must seek evidence beyond the law itself, testing assumptions and evaluating novel predictions with new, independent data.

  4. Constitutional Court's Review and the Future of Water Law in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Mova Al'Afghani

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Enactment of the Water Law in Indonesia has arises public debate. The Judicial Review of the Law by the Constitutional added to this controversy as it puts the legality of the water regime in Indonesia in a "twilight zone". This article explained the historical background of the water regime in Indonesia and its development, analyze the position of water rights and human rights to water under Indonesian Constitution, elaborates the key provisions of Indonesian water law, elaborate water law's judicial review by the Constitutional Court, analyzes the legal consequences of the review and recommend the government on the parts of the law that needs to be amended or modified. The author also discusses several important issues that needs to be weighed by governments when creating the water law's implementing regulation, including regulating several standard contract provisions between government and water investors.

  5. Studying the laws of software evolution in a long-lived FLOSS project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Barahona, Jesus M; Robles, Gregorio; Herraiz, Israel; Ortega, Felipe

    2014-01-01

    Some free, open-source software projects have been around for quite a long time, the longest living ones dating from the early 1980s. For some of them, detailed information about their evolution is available in source code management systems tracking all their code changes for periods of more than 15 years. This paper examines in detail the evolution of one of such projects, glibc, with the main aim of understanding how it evolved and how it matched Lehman's laws of software evolution. As a result, we have developed a methodology for studying the evolution of such long-lived projects based on the information in their source code management repository, described in detail several aspects of the history of glibc, including some activity and size metrics, and found how some of the laws of software evolution may not hold in this case. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Software: Evolution and Process published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:25893093

  6. Future Law Enforcement Officers and Social Workers: Perceptions of Domestic Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMullan, Elizabeth C.; Carlan, Philip E.; Nored, Lisa S.

    2010-01-01

    This study compares perceptions of domestic violence for college students planning to work in law enforcement with students aspiring to careers in social work and non-law-enforcement criminal justice (N = 491). The study involves students attending four public universities across one Southern state who completed a survey (spring of 2006) measuring…

  7. Attitudes, Perceptions, and Aging Knowledge of Future Law Enforcement and Recreation Majors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurth, Maria L.; Intrieri, Robert C.

    2017-01-01

    The present study assessed knowledge of aging, ageism, and attitudes toward aging in undergraduate recreation and law enforcement majors. Past research with psychology, social work, and nursing majors showed that greater knowledge of aging was related to fewer ageist attitudes and beliefs. The results showed that law enforcement students possessed…

  8. Future Law Enforcement Officers and Social Workers: Perceptions of Domestic Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMullan, Elizabeth C.; Carlan, Philip E.; Nored, Lisa S.

    2010-01-01

    This study compares perceptions of domestic violence for college students planning to work in law enforcement with students aspiring to careers in social work and non-law-enforcement criminal justice (N = 491). The study involves students attending four public universities across one Southern state who completed a survey (spring of 2006) measuring…

  9. Some comments on the current (and future status of Muslim personal law in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Rautenbach

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available The state law of South Africa consists of the common law and the customary law. However, in reality there exist various cultural and religious communities who lead their private lives outside of state law. For example, the Muslim community in South Africa is a close-knit community which lives according to their own customs and usages. Muslims are subject to informal religious tribunals whose decisions and orders are neither recognised nor reviewable by the South African courts.The non-recognition of certain aspects of Muslim personal law causes unnecessary hardships, especially for women. A Muslim woman is often in a "catch two" situation. For example, on the one hand her attempts to divorce her husband in terms of Muslim law may be foiled by the relevant religious tribunal and, on the other hand, the South African courts may not provide the necessary relief, because they might not recognise the validity of her Muslim marriage. Increasingly, South African courts are faced with complex issues regarding the Muslim community. The last few years there has been a definite change in the courts' attitude with regard to the recognition of certain aspects of Muslim personal law. Contrary to pre-1994 court cases, the recent court cases attempt to develop the common law to give recognition to certain aspects of Muslim personal law. This article attempts to give an overview of the recent case law that dealt with issues regarding the recognition of aspects of Muslim personal law. Another issue, which eventuates from the current situation, is whether the South African legal order should continue to have a dualistic legal order or whether we should opt for a unified legal order or even a pluralistic legal order. In order to address this issue, some comments on the current status of Muslim personal law will be made and, finally, in order to contribute to the debate regarding the recognition of Muslim personal law, optional models for the recognition of Muslim

  10. North Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water simulation and future projection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIA Ruibin; LIU Qinyu; XU Lixiao; LU Yiqun

    2015-01-01

    The present climate simulation and future projection of the Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (ESTMW) in the North Pacific are investigated based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model (GFDL-ESM2M). Spatial patterns of the mixed layer depth (MLD) in the eastern subtropical North Pacific and the ESTMW are well simulated using this model. Compared with historical simulation, the ESTMW is produced at lighter isopycnal surfaces and its total volume is decreased in the RCP8.5 runs, because the subduction rate of the ESTMW decreases by 0.82×10−6 m/s during February–March. In addition, it is found that the lateral induction decreasing is approximately four times more than the Ekman pumping, and thus it plays a dominant role in the decreased subduction rate associated with global warming. Moreover, the MLD during February–March is banded shoaling in response to global warming, extending northeastward from the east of the Hawaii Islands (20°N, 155°W) to the west coast of North America (30°N, 125°W), with a max-imum shoaling of 50 m, and then leads to the lateral induction reduction. Meanwhile, the increased north-eastward surface warm current to the east of Hawaii helps strengthen of the local upper ocean stratification and induces the banded shoaling MLD under warmer climate. This new finding indicates that the ocean surface currents play an important role in the response of the MLD and the ESTMW to global warming.

  11. Extreme Hot Days future projections using Circulation Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andres Garcia-Valero, Juan; Fernández-Montes, Sonia; Jerez, Sonia; Montávez, Juan Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan Jose

    2016-04-01

    This work presents an ensemble of future climate change projections of Extreme Hot Days (EHDs) for Spain. EHD are defined as the days with temperature over the 95 percentile of extended 8 summer regional series (Garcia-Valero et al, 2015). The ensemble consist of 18 members. These come from varying the RPC (4.5 and 8.5), the global model (MPIM,EC-EARTH, CCSM) and the Circulation Type (CT) classification (Z500-SLP, Z500-T850, SLP-T850) obtained in Garcia-Valero et al (2015). Firstly, the ability of GCMs for representing the observed extreme CTs in the historical runs is assessed. All models represent satisfactory most CTs for all classifications, being the bias errors of the frequency appearance of the CTs always under the 15%. Results indicate that the CTs having the largest efficiencies in EHD production has the biggest increase along the next century. This leads to that all regions strongly increase the frequency appearance of EHD. The EHD increase is larger in the inner regions towards the north of Spain, reaching an increase of 3 times the current frequency at the end of this century . This shift is mainly attributable to changes in the atmospheric dynamics. It is very likely that the this value is a low boundary of EHD positive change, since most regional processes (feedbacks, persistence, etc) tends to increase high temperature events. In addition, an analysis of uncertainties has been carried out. An ANOVA analysis shows that the uncertainty associated to each source (GCMs, CT-class, RPC) depends on the region. However the general behavior is that the largest uncertainty is assigned to the GCM, while RCP and CT-class presents similar uncertainty.

  12. Preparing Future Leaders: Project Management Strategies for Service Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munger, Roger; Gutowski, Amanda

    2008-01-01

    This article makes a case for teaching project management strategies in service-learning courses. The authors describe three specific documents students can create to help them manage a service-learning project and then present strategies that can help students manage their project teams. Such skills, the authors argue, provide the tools students…

  13. Preparing Future Leaders: Project Management Strategies for Service Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munger, Roger; Gutowski, Amanda

    2008-01-01

    This article makes a case for teaching project management strategies in service-learning courses. The authors describe three specific documents students can create to help them manage a service-learning project and then present strategies that can help students manage their project teams. Such skills, the authors argue, provide the tools students…

  14. Law project of program relative to the management of radioactive materials and wastes; Projet de Loi, de programme relatif a la gestion des matieres et des dechets radioactifs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Villepin, D. de; Breton, T

    2006-03-15

    The law of the 30 December 1991 defined three axis of researches and fixed a the legal aspects of the researches programs management. Based on these researches results a law project has been defined. The first part of the document presents the objectives of the law project and discusses the different articles. The second part is devoted to the text of the law project. (A.L.B.)

  15. Software Support for the Classical, Contemporary and Future Project Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakov Crnkovic

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The volume and complexity of Project Management (PM raises many questions for managers. What exactly are we managing? People? Performance? Efficiency? Effectiveness? Cost? Time? At what levels do projects become challenging and worthy of significant management attention? Can some projects be left on auto-pilot? Must others be managed more aggressively? What metrics are useful in Project Management? How can they be integrated with normal performance metrics in the organization? How can metrics be built into assessment programs that work? How can projects be monitored, re-planned to stay within the original budget and schedule deadlines? How good is the PM software support? Do we really need PM software packages or it should be the integral part of the company's information system (IS? Where is the knowledge about company's previous projects and performance? Are we able to establish company or even industry wide standards for project management? Can we (or should we move from the PMBOK® guidelines and use other approaches? We discussing important questions in PM: software products, responsibilities for concurrently executing several projects (multi-projects with multi objectives and multiple deadlines, introducing a need for initiation, design, execution, and control using a virtual project management and application of the organizational project maturity model.

  16. High Performance Monopropellants for Future Planetary Ascent Vehicles Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Physical Sciences Inc. proposes to design, develop, and demonstrate, a novel high performance monopropellant for application in future planetary ascent vehicles. Our...

  17. Zipf’s word frequency law in natural language: A critical review and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    The frequency distribution of words has been a key object of study in statistical linguistics for the past 70 years. This distribution approximately follows a simple mathematical form known as Zipf ’ s law. This article first shows that human language has a highly complex, reliable structure in the frequency distribution over and above this classic law, although prior data visualization methods have obscured this fact. A number of empirical phenomena related to word frequencies are then reviewed. These facts are chosen to be informative about the mechanisms giving rise to Zipf’s law and are then used to evaluate many of the theoretical explanations of Zipf’s law in language. No prior account straightforwardly explains all the basic facts or is supported with independent evaluation of its underlying assumptions. To make progress at understanding why language obeys Zipf’s law, studies must seek evidence beyond the law itself, testing assumptions and evaluating novel predictions with new, independent data. PMID:24664880

  18. High Pressure Oxygen Generation for Future Exploration Missions Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed innovation is the development of a cathode feed electrolysis cell stack capable of generating 3600 psia oxygen at a relevant scale for future...

  19. The Future of Raiding: Lessons in Raiding Tactics from the Indian Wars and Law Enforcement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    as MS-13), the Bloods , Crips , Nortenos, Sortenos and others are similar to terrorist 102 Mahoney... gangs in the United States, that utilizing the appropriate raiding technique at the correct time and place under the appropriate circumstances can... Gangs , Law Enforcement Tactics, Indian Wars 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT Unclassified 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF

  20. Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T.-C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

    2016-09-01

    This study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimized conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraints.

  1. NASA Fixed Wing Project: Green Technologies for Future Aircraft Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DelRosario, Ruben

    2014-01-01

    The NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Fixed Wing (FW) Project addresses the comprehensive challenge of enabling revolutionary energy efficiency improvements in subsonic transport aircraft combined with dramatic reductions in harmful emissions and perceived noise to facilitate sustained growth of the air transportation system. Advances in multidisciplinary technologies and the development of unconventional aircraft systems offer the potential to achieve these improvements. The presentation will highlight the FW Project vision of revolutionary systems and technologies needed to achieve the challenging goals of aviation. Specifically, the primary focus of the FW Project is on the N+3 generation that is, vehicles that are three generations beyond the current state of the art, requiring mature technology solutions in the 2025-30 timeframe.

  2. ORGANIZATION OF FUTURE ENGINEERS' PROJECT-BASED LEARNING WHEN STUDYING THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halyna V. Lutsenko

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The peculiarities of modern world experience of implementation of project-based learning in engineering education have been considered. The potential role and place of projects in learning activity have been analyzed. The methodology of organization of project-based activity of engineering students when studying the project management methodology and computer systems of project management has been proposed. The requirements to documentation and actual results of students' projects have been described in detail. The requirements to computer-aided systems of project management developed by using Microsoft Project in the scope of diary scheduling and resources planning have been formulated.

  3. An Intelligence Project Concerning the Future of the Chinese Nation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1994-01-01

    Asocial public welfare undertaking—"an intelligence project" of great practical significance and profound historical significance was formally unfolded to the public by the end of 1993. This is the glad tidings of 25 million people who live in the region of Iodine Deficiency Disease (IDD) as well as a great matter of concern for the 1.2 billion people of China.

  4. Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators under Future Development Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visconti, Piero; Bakkenes, Michel; Baisero, Daniele; Brooks, Thomas; Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Joppa, Lucas; Alkemade, Rob; Marco, Di Moreno; Santini, Luca; Hoffmann, Michael; Maiorano, Luigi; Pressey, Robert L.; Arponen, Anni; Boitani, Luigi; Reside, April E.; Vuuren, van Detlef P.; Rondinini, Carlo

    2016-01-01

    To address the ongoing global biodiversity crisis, governments have set strategic objectives and have adopted indicators to monitor progress toward their achievement. Projecting the likely impacts on biodiversity of different policy decisions allows decision makers to understand if and how these

  5. Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators under Future Development Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visconti, Piero; Bakkenes, Michel; Baisero, Daniele; Brooks, Thomas; Butchart, Stuart H M; Joppa, Lucas; Alkemade, Rob; Di Marco, Moreno; Santini, Luca; Hoffmann, Michael; Maiorano, Luigi; Pressey, Robert L.; Arponen, Anni; Boitani, Luigi; Reside, April E.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Rondinini, Carlo

    2016-01-01

    To address the ongoing global biodiversity crisis, governments have set strategic objectives and have adopted indicators to monitor progress toward their achievement. Projecting the likely impacts on biodiversity of different policy decisions allows decision makers to understand if and how these

  6. Digital Middletown Schools Project: A Glance to the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullen, Laurie; Nasseh, Biznah; Smitherman, O'Neal; Lutz, Dan; Draper, Vernon

    2007-01-01

    This article reports on the deployment of a high-bandwidth wireless network for content distribution to two schools. The project, titled Digital Middletown, builds upon the sociological Middletown studies from the 1920s (Lynd & Lynd, 1929) to understand how "Middle America" reacts to and addresses societal change. We report on the…

  7. Teaching chemistry teachers constructal law and exergy for a sustainable future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horta, L.M.P. [Agrupamento de Escolas D. Miguel de Almeida Barreiras do Tejo (Portugal)

    2010-07-01

    Recent developments in science must be considered when designing a teacher training course in order to establish connections with the teacher's own field of work. As constructal law and exergy develop, several scientific fields are benefiting from the input of new knowledge. Chemistry teachers in particular can benefit from a greater understanding of constructal law and how exergy works, their society and environment connections and applications, through the Science, Technology, Society and Environment perspective present in the Portuguese National curricula. The input of new knowledge can boost pedagogical innovation and sustainable development. With advances in information technology, it is easier the access recent developments. This paper described the web 2.0 as a great vehicle to all that new knowledge and encouraged modern chemistry teachers to explore new theories and ideas within chemistry, biotechnology, green energy, biomaterials, astrobiology, nuclear power generation or any chemistry related disciplines. 13 refs.

  8. Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okjeong Lee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, air temperature and humidity of the future are expected to gradually increase over the current. In this study, future PMPs are estimated by using future dew point temperature projection data which are obtained from RCM data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. First, bias included in future dew point temperature projection data which is provided on a daily basis is corrected through a quantile-mapping method. Next, using a scale-invariance technique, 12-hour duration 100-year return period dew point temperatures which are essential input data for PMPs estimation are estimated from bias-corrected future dew point temperature data. After estimating future PMPs, it can be shown that PMPs in all future climate change scenarios (AR5 RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 are very likely to increase.

  9. The AMEDD Futures 2039 Project: Phase 2 Final Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-30

    will be more personnel focused on researching and developing the newer technologies such as robotic surgery , nanomedicine, stem cells, genetic data and...will be better trained through the virtual world. Due to the advances in robotic surgery , nanomedicine, and telemedicine the AMEDD will have less...medicine will be incorporated into the future AMEDD. By 2039, robotic surgery becomes the primary means for surgeons to conduct invasive procedures

  10. Summary report for Tetlin National Wildlife Refuge: Projected vegetation and fire regime response to future climate change in Alaska

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This project is part of a statewide model analysis of future vegetation and fire regimer esponse to projected future climate. This document provides a summary of...

  11. Taking a "Future Focus" in Education--What Does It Mean? An NZCER Working Paper from the Future-Focussed Issues in Education (FFI) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolstad, Rachel

    2011-01-01

    This working paper describes some of the ideas underpinning NZCER's Future-Focused Issues (FFI) project. There is a variety of ways to interpret what it means to take a "future focus" in education. This paper explains why the FFI project has focused primarily on concepts specifically mentioned in relation to "future focus" in…

  12. Atmospheric nucleation: highlights of the EUCAARI project and future directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.-M. Kerminen

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Within the project EUCAARI (European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions, atmospheric nucleation was studied by (i developing and testing new air ion and cluster spectrometers, (ii conducting homogeneous nucleation experiments for sulphate and organic systems in the laboratory, (iii investigating atmospheric nucleation mechanism under field conditions, and (iv applying new theoretical and modelling tools for data interpretation and development of parameterisations. The current paper provides a synthesis of the obtained results and identifies the remaining major knowledge gaps related to atmospheric nucleation. The most important technical achievement of the project was the development of new instruments for measuring sub-3 nm particle populations, along with the extensive application of these instruments in both the laboratory and the field. All the results obtained during EUCAARI indicate that sulphuric acid plays a central role in atmospheric nucleation. However, also vapours other than sulphuric acid are needed to explain the nucleation and the subsequent growth processes, at least in continental boundary layers. Candidate vapours in this respect are some organic compounds, ammonia, and especially amines. Both our field and laboratory data demonstrate that the nucleation rate scales to the first or second power of the nucleating vapour concentration(s. This agrees with the few earlier field observations, but is in stark contrast with classical thermodynamic nucleation theories. The average formation rates of 2-nm particles were found to vary by almost two orders of magnitude between the different EUCAARI sites, whereas the formation rates of charged 2-nm particles varied very little between the sites. Overall, our observations are indicative of frequent, yet moderate, ion-induced nucleation usually outweighed by much stronger neutral nucleation events in the continental lower troposphere. The most concrete

  13. High Resolution Projection of Future Air Quality in South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, R.; Barth, M. C.; Pfister, G.; Lamarque, J. F.; Walters, S.; Naja, M. K.; Ghude, S. D.

    2015-12-01

    About one seventh of the world's population living in South Asia faces the risk of severe air pollution due to high anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants. Recent studies have shown that exposure to present day air pollution in South Asia is sufficient enough to reduce the lifespan of about 660 million people by about 3 years, destroy food that can feed about 94 million poor people and cause economic loss of several billion dollars. This problem may worsen in the future as anthropogenic emissions are expected to increase due to rapid economic growth in South Asia, and climate change is expected to lead to atmospheric conditions conducive for the production and accumulation of air pollutants. In order to predict how air quality will change in South Asia in future (2050), we are conducting high resolution air quality simulations for the present day (2005-2014) and future (2046-2055) time periods using the Nested Regional Climate Model coupled with Chemistry (NRCM-Chem). The model domain covers entire South Asia at a horizontal grid spacing of 60 km with a nested domain over the densely populated and polluted Indo-Gangetic Plain region at a horizontal grid spacing of 12 km. The model results are being evaluated with available in situ and satellite based observations and the evaluation results show that NRCM-Chem model is able to capture several important features of the observed spatial and temporal distribution of key meteorological parameters and air pollutants. Initial model results show that annual average surface ozone and PM2.5 concentrations may increase by up to 15 ppbv and 25 μg m-3, respectively with highest increase in the Indo-Gangetic Plain.

  14. 100% Renewable Energy Systems in Project Future Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2009-01-01

    , create employment and potentially lead to large earnings on exports. If externalities such as health effects etc. are included, even more benefits can be expected. 100 per cent renewable energy systems will be technically possible in the future, and may even be economically beneficial compared...... energy system by the year 2050 are presented. Two short term transition target years in the process towards this goal are analysed for 2015 and 2030. The analyses reveal that implementing energy savings, renewable energy and more efficient conversion technologies can have positive socioeconomic effects...... to the business-as-usual energy system. Hence the current debate between leaders should reflect a combination of these two main challenges....

  15. How historic simulation-observation discrepancy affects future warming projections in a very large model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, Philip

    2016-10-01

    Projections of future climate made by model-ensembles have credibility because the historic simulations by these models are consistent with, or near-consistent with, historic observations. However, it is not known how small inconsistencies between the ranges of observed and simulated historic climate change affects the future projections made by a model ensemble. Here, the impact of historical simulation-observation inconsistencies on future warming projections is quantified in a 4-million member Monte Carlo ensemble from a new efficient Earth System Model (ESM). Of the 4-million ensemble members, a subset of 182,500 are consistent with historic ranges of warming, heat uptake and carbon uptake simulated by the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. This simulation-consistent subset projects similar future warming ranges to the CMIP5 ensemble for all four RCP scenarios, indicating the new ESM represents an efficient tool to explore parameter space for future warming projections based on historic performance. A second subset of 14,500 ensemble members are consistent with historic observations for warming, heat uptake and carbon uptake. This observation-consistent subset projects a narrower range for future warming, with the lower bounds of projected warming still similar to CMIP5, but the upper warming bounds reduced by 20-35 %. These findings suggest that part of the upper range of twenty-first century CMIP5 warming projections may reflect historical simulation-observation inconsistencies. However, the agreement of lower bounds for projected warming implies that the likelihood of warming exceeding dangerous levels over the twenty-first century is unaffected by small discrepancies between CMIP5 models and observations.

  16. A versatile method for groundwater vulnerability projections in future scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenazzi, Stefania; Bonfanti, Marianna; Masetti, Marco; Nghiem, Son V; Sorichetta, Alessandro

    2017-02-01

    Water scarcity and associated risks are serious societal problems. A major challenge for the future will be to ensure the short-term and long-term provision of accessible and safe freshwater to meet the needs of the rapidly growing human population and changes in land cover and land use, where conservation and protection play a key role. Through a Bayesian spatial statistical method, a time-dependent approach for groundwater vulnerability assessment is developed to account for both the recent status of groundwater contamination and its evolution, as required by the European Union (Groundwater Directive, 2006/118/EC). This approach combines natural and anthropogenic factors to identify areas with a critical combination of high levels and increasing trends of nitrate concentrations, together with a quantitative evaluation of how different future scenarios would impact the quality of groundwater resources in a given area. In particular, the proposed approach can determine potential impacts on groundwater resources if policies are maintained at the status quo or if new measures are implemented for safeguarding groundwater quality, as natural factors are changing under climatic or anthropogenic stresses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. A commentary on studies presenting projections of the future prevalence of dementia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norton Sam

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Population ageing over the first half of this century is likely to lead to dramatic increases in the prevalence of dementia. This will affect all regions of the world, but particularly developing regions. Dementia projections have been used extensively to support policy. It is therefore important these projections are as accurate as possible. Discussion In this paper we provide a commentary on studies projecting the future prevalence of dementia for the world or for individual continents. We identify some important limitations of the methods used in published projections and provide recommendations to improve the accuracy of future projections, and allow for the checking of the accuracy of the predictions. Summary Accurate projections of dementia incidence, at both the global and local level, are essential for healthcare planners.

  18. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davie, J.C.S.; Falloon, P.D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F.T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D.B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S.N.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Arnell, N.

    2013-01-01

    Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathw

  19. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davie, J. C. S.; Falloon, P. D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F. T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D. B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S. N.; Franssen, W.; Arnell, N.

    2013-01-01

    Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathwa

  20. Imagining the personal past: Episodic counterfactuals compared to episodic memories and episodic future projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Özbek, Müge; Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2016-01-01

    memories and future projections by neither having the positivity bias of the future events nor the enhanced sensory details of the past events. Across all three event types sensory details decreased, whereas importance, reference to cultural life script, and centrality increased with increasing temporal...

  1. Future Mission Proposal Opportunities: Discovery, New Frontiers, and Project Prometheus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niebur, S. M.; Morgan, T. H.; Niebur, C. S.

    2003-01-01

    The NASA Office of Space Science is expanding opportunities to propose missions to comets, asteroids, and other solar system targets. The Discovery Program continues to be popular, with two sample return missions, Stardust and Genesis, currently in operation. The New Frontiers Program, a new proposal opportunity modeled on the successful Discovery Program, begins this year with the release of its first Announcement of Opportunity. Project Prometheus, a program to develop nuclear electric power and propulsion technology intended to enable a new class of high-power, high-capability investigations, is a third opportunity to propose solar system exploration. All three classes of mission include a commitment to provide data to the Planetary Data System, any samples to the NASA Curatorial Facility at Johnson Space Center, and programs for education and public outreach.

  2. Agile project management – a future approach to the management of projects?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aljaž Stare

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Like other professions, project management is constantly developing, new techniques are emerging, while newer, more effective approaches are being established. As an innovative modern approach, agile project management is most frequently mentioned and many experts argue that it is becoming the project management of the 21st century. The approach was developed in the field of software development and has delivered a number of novelties and benefits for the project team and the project client. On the other hand, it highlights some ‘new’ approaches that are not foreign to ‘traditional’ managers and raises a series of dilemmas about the actual benefits it brings. Even greater dilemmas arise when we attempt to use the approach for other types of projects. This speculative article summarises the most significant innovations introduced by the agile approach and critically assesses the possibility of extending the agile approach to other types of projects.

  3. Tenancy Law Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edlund, Hans Henrik

    2003-01-01

    Report on Danish Tenancy Law. Contribution to a research project co-financed by the Grotius Programme for Judicial Co-Operation in Civil Matters. http://www.iue.it/LAW/ResearchTeaching/EuropeanPrivateLaw/Projects.shtml......Report on Danish Tenancy Law. Contribution to a research project co-financed by the Grotius Programme for Judicial Co-Operation in Civil Matters. http://www.iue.it/LAW/ResearchTeaching/EuropeanPrivateLaw/Projects.shtml...

  4. Public Policy Exceptions in European Private Law : A New Research Project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Colombi Ciacchi, Aurelia

    2014-01-01

    Public policy exceptions arguably exist in all fields of private and commerciallaw, not only in private international law but also in substantive law. In substantive private law, the term 'public policy exception' could be used to indicate general illegality rules that make an act of private

  5. Dealing with Law Enforcement Authorities. Tierra de Oportunidad Module 22. LAES: Latino Adult Education Services Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kissam, Ed; Dorsey, Holda

    This module, which may be used as the basis for a workshop or as a special topic unit in adult basic education or English-as-a-Second-Language (ESL) courses, discusses dealing with law enforcement authorities. It is designed to teach immigrants the following: understand laws and consequences of breaking them; how the law enforcement agencies…

  6. Cross-Border Insolvency Law in Europe: Present Status and Future Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B Wessels

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available In May 2007 the European countries celebrated the first lustrum of the EU Insolvency Regulation (1346/2000. This article describes where Europe stands with its model which is based on well known theories of private international law for dealing with cross-border insolvencies. The EU Insolvency Regulation provides for a national court to exercise international jurisdiction to open insolvency proceedings. The basis for international jurisdiction is the debtor’s “centre of main interests” or COMI. The two most important cases decided by the European Court of Justice (17 January 2006 Staubitz Schreiber and 2 May 2006 Eurofood are discussed. The article further analyses the regulation’s legal concept and its procedural context and explains that 'financial institutions' are not covered by the Insolvency Regulation, but by separate directives (2001/17; 2001/24. After having taken stock several suggestions are submitted for improvement of the system of cross-border insolvency in Europe.

  7. An Open Access future? Report from the eurocancercoms project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, R; Warden, R

    2011-01-01

    In March 2011, as part of the background research to the FP7 Eurocancercoms project, the European Association for Cancer Research (EACR) conducted an online survey of its members working in Europe to discover their experiences of and attitudes to the issues surrounding academic publishing and Open Access. This paper presents the results from this survey and compares them to the results from a much larger survey on the same topic from the Study of Open Access Publishing (SOAP). The responses from both surveys show very positive attitudes to the Open Access publishing route; perhaps the most challenging statistic from the EACR survey is that 88% of respondents believe that publicly funded research should be made available to be read and used without access barriers As a conclusion and invitation to further discussion, this paper also contributes to the debate around subscription and Open Access publishing, supporting the case for accelerating the progress towards Open Access publishing of cancer research articles as a particularly supportive way of assisting all researchers to make unhindered progress with their work. PMID:22276063

  8. An Open Access future? Report from the eurocancercoms project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, R; Warden, R

    2011-01-01

    In March 2011, as part of the background research to the FP7 Eurocancercoms project, the European Association for Cancer Research (EACR) conducted an online survey of its members working in Europe to discover their experiences of and attitudes to the issues surrounding academic publishing and Open Access. This paper presents the results from this survey and compares them to the results from a much larger survey on the same topic from the Study of Open Access Publishing (SOAP). The responses from both surveys show very positive attitudes to the Open Access publishing route; perhaps the most challenging statistic from the EACR survey is that 88% of respondents believe that publicly funded research should be made available to be read and used without access barriersAs a conclusion and invitation to further discussion, this paper also contributes to the debate around subscription and Open Access publishing, supporting the case for accelerating the progress towards Open Access publishing of cancer research articles as a particularly supportive way of assisting all researchers to make unhindered progress with their work.

  9. Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Agneta; Meier, H E Markus; Ripszam, Matyas; Rowe, Owen; Wikner, Johan; Haglund, Peter; Eilola, Kari; Legrand, Catherine; Figueroa, Daniela; Paczkowska, Joanna; Lindehoff, Elin; Tysklind, Mats; Elmgren, Ragnar

    2015-06-01

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 °C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

  10. A project-based course on Newton’s laws for talented junior high-school students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langbeheim, Elon

    2015-07-01

    Research has shown that project-based learning promotes student interest in science and improves understanding of scientific content. Fostering student motivation is particularly important in accelerated science and technology programmes for talented students, which are often demanding and time-consuming. Current texts provide little guidance on ways to employ challenging, open-ended investigations in physics suitable for the more capable students. This paper presents a project-based approach for teaching Newton’s laws in a programme for talented eighth-grade students. Evidence from student work demonstrates that project-based learning is a feasible classroom practice, challenging yet fulfilling for both students and teachers.

  11. Contributions to uncertainty in projections of future drought under climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. H. Taylor

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Drought is a cumulative event, often difficult to define and involving wide reaching consequences for agriculture, ecosystems, water availability, and society. Understanding how the occurrence of drought may change in the future and which sources of uncertainty are dominant can inform appropriate decisions to guide drought impacts assessments. Uncertainties in future projections of drought arise from several sources and our aim is to understand how these sources of uncertainty contribute to future projections of drought. We consider four sources of uncertainty; climate model uncertainty associated with future climate projections, future emissions of greenhouse gases (future scenario uncertainty, type of drought (drought index uncertainty and drought event definition (threshold uncertainty. Three drought indices (the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI, Soil Moisture Anomaly (SMA and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI are calculated for the A1B and RCP2.6 future emissions scenarios using monthly model output from a 57 member perturbed parameter ensemble of climate simulations of the HadCM3C Earth system model, for the baseline period, 1961–1990, and the period 2070–2099 (representing the 2080s. We consider where there are significant increases or decreases in the proportion of time spent in drought in the 2080s compared to the baseline and compare the effects from the four sources of uncertainty. Our results suggest that, of the included uncertainty sources, choice of drought index is the most important factor influencing uncertainty in future projections of drought (60%–85% of total included uncertainty. There is a greater range of uncertainty between drought indices than that between the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and the A1B emissions scenario (5%–6% in the 2050s to 17%–18% in the 2080s and across the different model variants in the ensemble (9%–17%. Choice of drought threshold has the least influence on uncertainty in future

  12. Cohesive zone laws for void growth — II. Numerical field projection of elasto-plastic fracture processes with vapor pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chew, Huck Beng; Hong, Soonsung; Kim, Kyung-Suk

    2009-08-01

    Modeling ductile fracture processes using Gurson-type cell elements has achieved considerable success in recent years. However, incorporating the full mechanisms of void growth and coalescence in cohesive zone laws for ductile fracture still remains an open challenge. In this work, a planar field projection method, combined with equilibrium field regularization, is used to extract crack-tip cohesive zone laws of void growth in an elastic-plastic solid. To this end, a single row of void-containing cell elements is deployed directly ahead of a crack in an elastic-plastic medium subjected to a remote K-field loading; the macroscopic behavior of each cell element is governed by the Gurson porous material relation, extended to incorporate vapor pressure effects. A thin elastic strip surrounding this fracture process zone is introduced, from which the cohesive zone variables can be extracted via the planar field projection method. We show that the material's initial porosity induces a highly convex traction-separation relationship — the cohesive traction reaches the peak almost instantaneously and decreases gradually with void growth, before succumbing to rapid softening during coalescence. The profile of this numerically extracted cohesive zone law is consistent with experimentally determined cohesive zone law in Part I for multiple micro-crazing in HIPS. In the presence of vapor pressure, both the cohesive traction and energy are dramatically lowered; the shape of the cohesive zone law, however, remains highly convex, which suggests that diffusive damage is still the governing failure mechanism.

  13. [The Bilbao declaration: international meeting on the law concerning the human genome project].

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-06-01

    The Bilbao statement was the result of a work meeting, held the day before the closing session by a group of representative experts, formed by general chairmen and meeting organizers. The compelled and necessary consent gave rise to the document that was read and communicated to the world's public opinion during the closing act on may 26, 1993. Notwithstanding, the working group considered that the divulged version was provisory and committed to continue the task of re-elaborating the statement. The aim was to complete and improve it, taking the greatest advantage of the important meeting achievements. The document that is next reproduced is the definitive integral version of the Bilbao Statement. The expert group that takes the responsibility of this Statement is Jean Dausset, Nobel Prize of Medicine (1980); Carleton Gajdusek, Nobel Prize of Medicine (1976); Santiago Grisolía president of UNESCO committee for the Genome Project; Michael Kirby, President of the Court of Appeal of the Supreme Court of New South Wales, Australia; Aaron Klug, member of the Constitutional Council, Paris, France; Rafael Mendizábal, Judge of the Constitutional Court, Madrid, Spain; Juan Bautista Pardo, President of the Superior Court of Justice of the Basque Country and Carlos María Romeo Casabona, Director of the Chair of Law and Human Genome of the University of Deusto (Bilbao).

  14. Projecting the self into the future in individuals with schizophrenia: a preliminary cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffard, Stéphane; Bortolon, Catherine; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Gardes, Jeanne; Gely-Nargeot, Marie-Christine; Capdevielle, Delphine; Van der Linden, Martial

    2016-07-01

    The ability to project oneself into the future contributes to development and maintenance of a coherent sense of identity. If recent research has revealed that schizophrenia is associated with difficulties envisioning the future, little is known about patients' future self-representations. In this study, 27 participants with schizophrenia and 26 healthy controls were asked to simulate mental representations of plausible and highly significant future events (self-defining future projections, SDFPs) that they anticipate to happen in their personal future. Main results showed that schizophrenia patients had difficulties in reflecting on the broader meaning and implications of imagined future events. In addition, and contrary to our hypothesis, a large majority of SDFPs in schizophrenia patients were positive events, including achievements, relationship, and leisure contents. Interestingly, patients and controls did not differ on the perceived probability that these events will occur in the future. Our results suggest that schizophrenia patients have an exaggerated positive perception of their future selves. Together, these findings lend support to the idea that past and future self-defining representations have both similar and distinct characteristics in schizophrenia.

  15. Clinical trials and projected future of liver xenotransplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, J; Rao, A; Starzl, T

    1997-01-01

    The trial and error of the pioneering xenotransplant trials over the past three decades has defined the limitation of the species used. Success was tantalizingly close with the chimpanzee, baboon, and other primates. The use of more disparate species has been frustrated by the xenoantibody barrier. Future attempts at clinical xenotransplantation will be hampered by the consideration of the species of animals and the nature of the organs to be transplanted. On one hand, primate donors have the advantage of genetic similarity (and therefore potential compatibility) and less risk of immunologic loss. On the other hand, pig donors are more easily raised, are not sentient animals, and may be less likely to harbor transmissible disease. It is recognized that the success of xenotransplantation may very with different organs. Because it is relatively resistant to antibody-mediated rejection, the liver is the organ for which there is the greatest chance of long-term success. Consideration of using xenotransplants on a temporary basis, or as a "bridge" to permanent human transplantation, may allow clinical trials utilizing hearts or kidney xenografts. Issues on metabolic compatibility and infection risks cannot be accurately determined until routine success in clinical xenotransplantation occurs. Based on a limited experience, the conventional approaches to allotransplantation are unlikely to be successful in xenotransplantation. The avoidance of immediate xenograft destruction by hyperacute rejection, achieved using transgenic animals bearing human complement regulatory proteins or modulating the antigenic target on the donor organ, is the first step to successful xenotransplantation. The ability to achieve tolerance by establishing a state of bone marrow chimerism is the key to overcoming the long-term immunologic insults and avoiding the necessarily high doses of nonspecific immunosuppression that would otherwise be required and associated with a high risk of infections

  16. Game theory, international law, and future environmental cooperation in the Middle East

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirsch, M. [Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem (Israel)

    1998-12-31

    Through the use of game theory, this article explores some of the principal factors influencing the emergence and maintenance of international cooperation in order to develop legal guidelines for establishing an effective environmental mechanism in the Middle East. As this article shows, game theory concepts and models provide a valuable tool for analyzing the phenomenon of cooperation, enabling international lawyers to shape legal norms which will enhance the prospects for environmental cooperation in the Middle East. Part 2 of this article sets for the basic concepts and models of game theory and its relationship to modern international relations theory. Part 3 presents a game theoretical analysis of two major environmental settings in the Middle East: marine pollution in the Gulf of Aqaba and water contamination of the Mountain Aquifer. It then suggests some legal mechanisms to enhance the likelihood of cooperation in these settings. Part 4 concludes the article by exploring the options nd limits of combining game theory and international law as an instrument to improve the prospects of cooperation. The article ultimately states that this combination offers scholars and policy-makers important insights into better legal mechanisms for long-term international cooperation.

  17. Using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Schmidt

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available We present a description of the theoretical framework and "best practice" for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5 (CMIP5 to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting paleo-climate changes from the present over 3 periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM (21 thousand years before present, ka, the mid-Holocene (MH (6 ka and the Last Millennium (LM (850–1850 CE. The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of paleo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with paleoclimate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also find that some comparisons, for instance associated with model variability, are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing timeseries, or show time dependent behaviour, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the paleo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modeling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

  18. Mitigation and Compensation under EU Nature Conservation Law in the Flemish Region: Beyond the Deadlock for Development Projects?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik Schoukens

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available For years, the predicament of many of the European protected habitats and species in the Flemish Region, as in many other Member States, passed relatively unnoticed. The lack of proper rules and clear implementation rules fuelled the impression amongst project developers and planning authorities that the impacts of project developments on biodiversity did not really warrant closer assessment. However, in the past ten years, strict national case law has significantly altered this view. Faced with tighter judicial scrutiny, the Habitats and Birds Directives were seen as an important obstacle to project development. Hence mitigation and compensation have now come up as novel approaches to better align spatial aspirations with the conservation of nature. In reality, mitigation was often used as a cover-up for projects that would not fit the strict requirements enshrined in the derogatory clauses. Interestingly, the Belgian Council of State showed itself quite cautious in reasserting the lax view of some planning authorities on mitigation and compensation. In reviewing the legality of several new approaches to mitigation and compensation, the Belgian Council of State, which was initially very cautious in quashing decisions that would actually jeopardise major infrastructure developments, has rendered some compelling rulings on the specific application of mitigation and compensatory measures in a spatial planning context. By letting the objectives of EU nature conservation law prevail in the face of economic interests, the recent case law of the Belgian Council of State can be seen as a remarkable example of judicial environmental activism.

  19. The future Renewable Energy Law - how much reform is necessary?; Das zukuenftige EEG - wie viel Reform ist erforderlich?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perner, Jens; Riechmann, Christoph [Frontier Economics, Koeln (Germany)

    2013-05-15

    The question as to the future remuneration and market integration of renewable energies is currently a topic of lively debate. This has resulted, amongst other factors, from the increase of the reallocation charge from 3.59 euro cents to 5.28 euro cents per kWh as of 1 January 2013. Given this situation the question is no longer whether the German system for the promotion of renewables needs to be reformed but rather to what extent. Attempts to reform the Renewable Energy Law by merely making minor adjustments do not appear sufficient in view of the present cost level. What is inevitably needed are models that are unerringly oriented to integrating renewable energies in the market and to facilitating competition between them.

  20. Cooperative Microform Publishing: The Law Library Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupont, Jerry

    1983-01-01

    Discussion of the Hawaii-based Law Library Microform Consortium (LLMC), a nonprofit interlibrary cooperative microfiche project involving several hundred American and foreign law libraries, outlines LLMC's history, organizational structure, operations, publishing record, marketing efforts, and prospects for the future. (EJS)

  1. Law enforcement and the project of descent of the symbolic order

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aldacy Rachid Coutinho

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with the registration of the symbolic force of the law, regardless the verification of their effectiveness. The labor law reveals in his regulatory frameworks the correlation of forces of capital and labor in society and thus is exemplary for establishing the existence of laws that have no effect in changing the reality. The recognition that the state creates laws that are not observed and that it is not intended to be fulfilled, does not put away the presence of the authority by violence that establish a symbolic order.

  2. The German joint research project "concepts for future gravity satellite missions"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reubelt, Tilo; Sneeuw, Nico; Fichter, Walter; Müller, Jürgen

    2010-05-01

    Within the German joint research project "concepts for future gravity satellite missions", funded by the Geotechnologies programme of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, options and concepts for future satellite missions for precise (time-variable) gravity field recovery are investigated. The project team is composed of members from science and industry, bringing together experts in geodesy, satellite systems, metrology, sensor technology and control systems. The majority of team members already contributed to former gravity missions. The composition of the team guarantees that not only geodetic aspects and objectives are investigated, but also technological and financial constraints are considered. Conversely, satellite, sensor and system concepts are developed and improved in a direct exchange with geodetic and scientific claims. The project aims to develop concepts for both near and mid-term future satellite missions, taking into account e.g. advanced satellite formations and constellations, improved orbit design, innovative metrology and sensor systems and advances in satellite systems.

  3. Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

  4. Addressing the security of a future sustainable power system: The Danish SOSPO project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Guangya; Jóhannsson, Hjörtur; Lind, Morten

    2012-01-01

    ; on the other, the power is increasingly generated at relative low voltage networks which in turn gives rise to new challenges in the conventional system design. The high governmental objective of greenhouse gas reduction provokes accelerating adoptation of the renewables. The effect of this has to be carefully...... evaluated to secure the operation from both transmission and distribution levels. The Danish SOSPO project is launched from 2012 targeting at the system security assessment in the control room for the future scenarios. Methods will be developed in this project to counteract with the future challenges......, and a testing platform will be developed in the laboratory for algorithm testing and demonstration....

  5. Improving Future Ecosystem Benefits through Earth Observations: the H2020 Project ECOPOTENTIAL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provenzale, Antonello; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Ziv, Guy

    2016-04-01

    Terrestrial and marine ecosystems provide essential goods and services to human societies. In the last decades, however, anthropogenic pressures caused serious threats to ecosystem integrity, functions and processes, potentially leading to the loss of essential ecosystem services. ECOPOTENTIAL is a large European-funded H2020 project which focuses its activities on a targeted set of internationally recognised protected areas in Europe, European Territories and beyond, blending Earth Observations from remote sensing and field measurements, data analysis and modelling of current and future ecosystem conditions and services. The definition of future scenarios is based on climate and land-use change projections, addressing the issue of uncertainties and uncertainty propagation across the modelling chain. The ECOPOTENTIAL project addresses cross-scale geosphere-biosphere interactions and landscape-ecosystem dynamics at regional to continental scales, using geostatistical methods and the emerging approaches in Macrosystem Ecology and Earth Critical Zone studies, addressing long-term and large-scale environmental and ecological challenges. The project started its activities in 2015, by defining a set of storylines which allow to tackle some of the most crucial issues in the assessment of present conditions and the estimate of the future state of selected ecosystem services. In this contribution, we focus on some of the main storylines of the project and discuss the general approach, focusing on the interplay of data and models and on the estimate of projection uncertainties.

  6. Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Cunrui; Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

    2011-12-01

    Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature-mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

  7. Future Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villano, Matt

    2009-01-01

    From wireless connectivity to light processing improvements, digital projectors have incorporated a number of technological advancements in recent years--developments that have made the tools even easier for higher education technologists to use. This article offers some vendor insights about some of those trends, and the ways in which they might…

  8. Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Klijs (Bart); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); A.E. Kunst (Anton)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractObjective Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This paper tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated to proximity to death

  9. Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Klijs (Bart); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); A.E. Kunst (Anton)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractObjective Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This paper tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated to proximity to death where

  10. Exploring the Present and Projecting the Future: People with Severe Mental Illness Speaking for Themselves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilà, Montserrat; Pallisera, Maria; Fullana, Judit

    2016-01-01

    The participation of people with mental illness in research is key to their empowerment and provides them with a highly meaningful experience. The aim of this article was to explore the perspectives, views and experiences of people with severe mental illness (SMI) regarding their present life and projection of the future (desires, expectations…

  11. Exploring the Present and Projecting the Future: People with Severe Mental Illness Speaking for Themselves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilà, Montserrat; Pallisera, Maria; Fullana, Judit

    2016-01-01

    The participation of people with mental illness in research is key to their empowerment and provides them with a highly meaningful experience. The aim of this article was to explore the perspectives, views and experiences of people with severe mental illness (SMI) regarding their present life and projection of the future (desires, expectations…

  12. Projecting the Future for Situation Assessment and Planning: A Cognitive Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-11-01

    them from similar experiences are complex psychological processes. Human retrieval mechanisms are heuristic in nature. They do not automatically...Ryback, 1967; Seashore, Underwood, Houston, & Berks, 1956; Thorndike , 1931; Waters, 1933). Experience with feedback as expertise. Even if we define...repertoire of procedurally-specified future projection strategies. Second, we would educate the analysts regarding general cognitive factors, such as

  13. Land use projections for the Rhine Basin under possible future climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veeneklaas, F.R.; Slothouwer, D.

    1995-01-01

    Possible future land use in the Rhine Basin is presented, both as a result of technical, economic, political and demographic developments and in view of changing climatic conditions caused by the greenhouse effect. For the decade 2040-2049 land use projections were made under both unchanged and chan

  14. Current status and future tasks of the Sunshine Project. (Development of new energy technology)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takada, T.

    1983-01-01

    Since its inception in 1974, the Sunshine Project has involved advances in new energy technology in many areas. The present report covers the principal areas of activity in 1980, examining the development status of solar energy, goethermal energy, coal liquefaction and gasification, hydrogen energy, wind power, ocean thermal energy conversion, etc. Future trends and tasks of new energy technology development are discussed. (In Japanese)

  15. Effects of episodic future thinking and self-projection on children's prospective memory performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kretschmer-Trendowicz, A.; Ellis, J.A.; Altgassen, A.M.

    2016-01-01

    The present study is the first to investigate the benefits of episodic future thinking (EFT) at encoding on prospective memory (PM) in preschool (age: M = 66.34 months, SD = 3.28) and primary school children (age: M = 88.36 months, SD = 3.12). A second aim was to examine if self-projection influence

  16. Effects of episodic future thinking and self-projection on children's prospective memory performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kretschmer-Trendowicz, A.; Ellis, J.A.; Altgassen, A.M.

    2016-01-01

    The present study is the first to investigate the benefits of episodic future thinking (EFT) at encoding on prospective memory (PM) in preschool (age: M = 66.34 months, SD = 3.28) and primary school children (age: M = 88.36 months, SD = 3.12). A second aim was to examine if self-projection

  17. Projections of future meteorological drought and wet periods in the Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, Philip B; Brando, Paulo; Asner, Gregory P; Field, Christopher B

    2015-10-27

    Future intensification of Amazon drought resulting from climate change may cause increased fire activity, tree mortality, and emissions of carbon to the atmosphere across large areas of Amazonia. To provide a basis for addressing these issues, we examine properties of recent and future meteorological droughts in the Amazon in 35 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that the CMIP5 climate models, as a group, simulate important properties of historical meteorological droughts in the Amazon. In addition, this group of models reproduces observed relationships between Amazon precipitation and regional sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans. Assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario for future drivers of climate change, the models project increases in the frequency and geographic extent of meteorological drought in the eastern Amazon, and the opposite in the West. For the region as a whole, the CMIP5 models suggest that the area affected by mild and severe meteorological drought will nearly double and triple, respectively, by 2100. Extremes of wetness are also projected to increase after 2040. Specifically, the frequency of periods of unusual wetness and the area affected by unusual wetness are projected to increase after 2040 in the Amazon as a whole, including in locations where annual mean precipitation is projected to decrease. Our analyses suggest that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of extreme events that have been shown to alter and degrade Amazonian forests.

  18. Future Projection of Droughts over South Korea Using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byung Sik Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, a method widely used to analyze droughts related to climate change, does not consider variables related to temperature and is limited because it cannot consider changes in hydrological balance, such as evapotranspiration from climate change. If we were to consider only the future increase in precipitation from climate change, droughts may decrease. However, because usable water can diminish from an increase in evapotranspiration, it is important to research on projected droughts considering the amount of evapotranspiration along with projecting and evaluating potential droughts considering the impact of climate change. As such, this study evaluated the occurrence of droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI as a newly conceptualized drought index that is similar to SPI but includes the temperature variability. We extracted simulated future precipitation and temperature data (2011 - 2099 from the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP climate change scenario of IPCC AR5 to evaluate the impact of future climate change on the occurrence of droughts of South Korea. We analyzed the ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation of meteorological observatories nationwide. In addition, we calculated the SPEI related to drought in the process to evaluate the future occurrence of droughts of South Korea. To confirm validity of SPEI results, extreme indices were analyzed. This resulted in the notion that as we go further into the future, the precipitation increases. But because of an increase in evapotranspiration also from a rise in temperature and continued dryness, the severity of droughts is projected to exacerbate.

  19. Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zongci Zhao

    2011-01-01

    @@ As we know,the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities.Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study,the main objective is to analyze if the projections of fu-ture climate change by global climate models are reli-able.Several workshops have been held on this issue,such as the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections in January of 2010 (presided by the co-chairs of the IPCC WGI and WGII AR5),and the workshop of the combined global climate model group held by NCAR in June of 2010.

  20. Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oni, Stephen; Futter, Martyn; Ledesma, Jose; Teutschbein, Claudia; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, Hjalmar

    2016-07-01

    There are growing numbers of studies on climate change impacts on forest hydrology, but limited attempts have been made to use current hydroclimatic variabilities to constrain projections of future climatic conditions. Here we used historical wet and dry years as a proxy for expected future extreme conditions in a boreal catchment. We showed that runoff could be underestimated by at least 35 % when dry year parameterizations were used for wet year conditions. Uncertainty analysis showed that behavioural parameter sets from wet and dry years separated mainly on precipitation-related parameters and to a lesser extent on parameters related to landscape processes, while uncertainties inherent in climate models (as opposed to differences in calibration or performance metrics) appeared to drive the overall uncertainty in runoff projections under dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions. Hydrologic model calibration for climate impact studies could be based on years that closely approximate anticipated conditions to better constrain uncertainty in projecting extreme conditions in boreal and temperate regions.

  1. Imagining the personal past: Episodic counterfactuals compared to episodic memories and episodic future projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Özbek, Müge; Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2017-01-01

    life script), and how these were affected by temporal distance (1 month, 1 year, 5+ years). The findings showed that the three types of events differed phenomenologically. First, episodic memories were remembered more easily, with more sensory details, and from a dominantly field perspective compared...... memories and future projections by neither having the positivity bias of the future events nor the enhanced sensory details of the past events. Across all three event types sensory details decreased, whereas importance, reference to cultural life script, and centrality increased with increasing temporal...... are few. Here we introduced a new method to systematically compare self-generated episodic counterfactuals to self-generated episodic memories and future projections with regard to their phenomenological characteristics (e.g., imagery, emotional valence, rehearsal) and content (e.g., reference to cultural...

  2. Post project evaluation, Miller Creek, California : assessment of stream bed morphology, and recommendations for future study

    OpenAIRE

    Yin, Wan-chih; Pope-Daum, Caitilin

    2004-01-01

    Miller creek is located in Marin County, California, and runs east from Big Rock Ridge through the Laws Gallinas Valley and into the San Pablo Bay. The Miller Creek watershed has been grazed continuously since the 1800s, and the creek has experienced sever widening and down cutting as a result. The miller Creek restoration Project, located in the Lucas Valley Estates subdivision and designed and built from 1979 to 1989, employed a multi-stage channel approach to restore and protect a riparian...

  3. The current shortage and future surplus of doctors: a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nogawa Hiroki

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Starting in the late 1980s, the Japanese government decreased the number of students accepted into medical school each year in order to reduce healthcare spending. The result of this policy is a serious shortage of doctors in Japan today, which has become a social problem in recent years. In an attempt to solve this problem, the Japanese government decided in 2007 to increase the medical student quota from 7625 to 8848. Furthermore, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ, Japan's ruling party after the 2009 election, promised in their manifesto to increase the medical student quota to 1.5 times what it was in 2007, in order to raise the number of medical doctors to more than 3.0 per 1000 persons. It should be noted, however, that this rapid increase in the medical student quota may bring about a serious doctor surplus in the future, especially because the population of Japan is decreasing. The purpose of this research is to project the future growth of the Japanese medical doctor workforce from 2008 to 2050 and to forecast whether the proposed additional increase in the student quota will cause a doctor surplus. Methods Simulation modeling of the Japanese medical workforce. Results Even if the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ fails, the number of practitioners is projected to increase from 286 699 (2.25 per 1000 persons in 2008 to 365 533 (over the national numerical goal of 3.0 per 1000 in 2024. The number of practitioners per 1000 persons is projected to further increase to 3.10 in 2025, to 3.71 in 2035, and to 4.69 in 2050. If the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ is realized, the total workforce is projected to rise to 392 331 (3.29 per 1000 persons in 2025, 464 296 (4.20 per 1,000 persons in 2035, and 545 230 (5.73 per 1000 persons in 2050. Conclusions The plan to increase the medical student quota will bring about a serious doctor surplus in the long run.

  4. The current shortage and future surplus of doctors: a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Starting in the late 1980s, the Japanese government decreased the number of students accepted into medical school each year in order to reduce healthcare spending. The result of this policy is a serious shortage of doctors in Japan today, which has become a social problem in recent years. In an attempt to solve this problem, the Japanese government decided in 2007 to increase the medical student quota from 7625 to 8848. Furthermore, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), Japan's ruling party after the 2009 election, promised in their manifesto to increase the medical student quota to 1.5 times what it was in 2007, in order to raise the number of medical doctors to more than 3.0 per 1000 persons. It should be noted, however, that this rapid increase in the medical student quota may bring about a serious doctor surplus in the future, especially because the population of Japan is decreasing. The purpose of this research is to project the future growth of the Japanese medical doctor workforce from 2008 to 2050 and to forecast whether the proposed additional increase in the student quota will cause a doctor surplus. Methods Simulation modeling of the Japanese medical workforce. Results Even if the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ fails, the number of practitioners is projected to increase from 286 699 (2.25 per 1000 persons) in 2008 to 365 533 (over the national numerical goal of 3.0 per 1000) in 2024. The number of practitioners per 1000 persons is projected to further increase to 3.10 in 2025, to 3.71 in 2035, and to 4.69 in 2050. If the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ is realized, the total workforce is projected to rise to 392 331 (3.29 per 1000 persons) in 2025, 464 296 (4.20 per 1,000 persons) in 2035, and 545 230 (5.73 per 1000 persons) in 2050. Conclusions The plan to increase the medical student quota will bring about a serious doctor surplus in the long run. PMID:21619585

  5. FutureGen 2.0 Pipeline and Regional Carbon Capture Storage Project - Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burger, Chris [Patrick Engineering Inc., Lisle, IL (United States); Wortman, David [Patrick Engineering Inc., Lisle, IL (United States); Brown, Chris [Battelle Memorial Inst., Richland, WA (United States); Hassan, Syed [Gulf Interstate Engineering, Houston, TX (United States); Humphreys, Ken [Futuregen Industrial Alliance, Inc., Washington, D.C. (United States); Willford, Mark [Futuregen Industrial Alliance, Inc., Washington, D.C. (United States)

    2016-03-31

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) FutureGen 2.0 Program involves two projects: (1) the Oxy-Combustion Power Plant Project and (2) the CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project. This Final Technical Report is focused on the CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project. The FutureGen 2.0 CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project evolved from an initial siting and project definition effort in Phase I, into the Phase II activity consisting permitting, design development, the acquisition of land rights, facility design, and licensing and regulatory approvals. Phase II also progressed into construction packaging, construction procurement, and targeted early preparatory activities in the field. The CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project accomplishments were significant, and in some cases unprecedented. The engineering, permitting, legal, stakeholder, and commercial learnings substantially advance the nation’s understanding of commercial-scale CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers. Voluminous and significant information was obtained from the drilling and the testing program of the subsurface, and sophisticated modeling was performed that held up to a wide range of scrutiny. All designs progressed to the point of securing construction contracts or comfort letters attesting to successful negotiation of all contract terms and willing execution at the appropriate time all major project elements – pipeline, surface facilities, and subsurface – as well as operations. While the physical installation of the planned facilities did not proceed in part due to insufficient time to complete the project prior to the expiration of federal funding, the project met significant objectives prior to DOE’s closeout decision. Had additional time been available, there were no known, insurmountable obstacles that would have precluded successful construction and operation of the project. Due to the suspension of the project, site restoration activities were developed and the work was accomplished. The site restoration

  6. A test bed for the future access control system the AD Project

    CERN Document Server

    Scibile, L

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes the design, management and development of the new access control system for the Antiproton Deceleration experimental area, called the AD Project. As this project includes all the elements for the industrial evolution of the present access control system it is an ideal test bed for future access systems. The adoption of new technologies and techniques are described, and the benefits and the shortfalls are highlighted. The open redundant architecture solution, based on a PROFIBUS network and standard industrial components (HP-UNIX, Siemens S7 PLC, Siemens Industrial PC, door locks), guarantees reliability, safety and optimal integration. The project team took advantage of the Goal Directed Project Management technique and managed to define a clear and effective strategy.

  7. Intelum project: tackling the calorimetry challenge for future high-energy colliders

    CERN Document Server

    CERN Bulletin

    2015-01-01

    Intelum is one of the CERN-coordinated projects funded under H2020. It aims to develop low-cost, radiation-hard scintillating and Cherenkov crystal and glass fibres for the next generation of calorimeter detectors for future high-energy experiments. This new technology could also have important applications in the medical imaging field.     Intelum project partners at the kick-off meeting held on 11 March at CERN.   Intelum is an H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Research and Innovation Staff Exchange (RISE) project coordinated by CERN. This project was initiated by the Crystal Clear Collaboration (CERN’s RD18 experiment), which has been developing inorganic scintillation materials for novel ionising-radiation detectors for 25 years. Intelum is an international consortium including fifteen institutes and companies from across western and eastern Europe, Japan and the USA, all of which are experts in crystal growth, scintillating mechanisms, radiation damage and dete...

  8. Future scenarios for viticultural zoning in Europe: ensemble projections and uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraga, H.; Malheiro, A. C.; Moutinho-Pereira, J.; Santos, J. A.

    2013-11-01

    Optimum climate conditions for grapevine growth are limited geographically and may be further challenged by a changing climate. Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Europe, the assessment of future scenarios for European viticulture is of foremost relevance. A 16-member ensemble of model transient experiments (generated by the ENSEMBLES project) under a greenhouse gas emission scenario and for two future periods (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) is used in assessing climate change projections for six viticultural zoning indices. After model data calibration/validation using an observational gridded daily dataset, changes in their ensemble means and inter-annual variability are discussed, also taking into account the model uncertainties. Over southern Europe, the projected warming combined with severe dryness in the growing season is expected to have detrimental impacts on the grapevine development and wine quality, requiring measures to cope with heat and water stress. Furthermore, the expected warming and the maintenance of moderately wet growing seasons over most of the central European winemaking regions may require a selection of new grapevine varieties, as well as an enhancement of pest/disease control. New winemaking regions may arise over northern Europe and high altitude areas, when considering climatic factors only. An enhanced inter-annual variability is also projected over most of Europe. All these future changes pose new challenges for the European winemaking sector.

  9. Future scenarios for viticultural zoning in Europe: ensemble projections and uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraga, H; Malheiro, A C; Moutinho-Pereira, J; Santos, J A

    2013-11-01

    Optimum climate conditions for grapevine growth are limited geographically and may be further challenged by a changing climate. Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Europe, the assessment of future scenarios for European viticulture is of foremost relevance. A 16-member ensemble of model transient experiments (generated by the ENSEMBLES project) under a greenhouse gas emission scenario and for two future periods (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) is used in assessing climate change projections for six viticultural zoning indices. After model data calibration/validation using an observational gridded daily dataset, changes in their ensemble means and inter-annual variability are discussed, also taking into account the model uncertainties. Over southern Europe, the projected warming combined with severe dryness in the growing season is expected to have detrimental impacts on the grapevine development and wine quality, requiring measures to cope with heat and water stress. Furthermore, the expected warming and the maintenance of moderately wet growing seasons over most of the central European winemaking regions may require a selection of new grapevine varieties, as well as an enhancement of pest/disease control. New winemaking regions may arise over northern Europe and high altitude areas, when considering climatic factors only. An enhanced inter-annual variability is also projected over most of Europe. All these future changes pose new challenges for the European winemaking sector.

  10. Updated projections of future vCJD deaths in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferguson Neil M

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Past projections of the future course of the vCJD epidemic in the UK have shown considerable uncertainty, with wide confidence bounds. However, recent vCJD case data have indicated a decrease in the annual incidence of deaths over the past two years. Methods A detailed survival model is fitted to the 121 vCJD deaths reported by the end of 2002 stratified by age and calendar time to obtain projections of future incidence. The model is additionally fitted to recent results from a survey of appendix tissues. Results Our results show a substantial decrease in the uncertainty of the future course of the primary epidemic in the susceptible genotype (MM-homozygous at codon 129 of the prion protein gene, with a best estimate of 40 future deaths (95% prediction interval 9–540 based on fitting to the vCJD case data alone. Additional fitting of the appendix data increases these estimates (best estimate 100, 95% prediction interval 10–2,600 but remains lower than previous projections. Conclusions The primary vCJD epidemic in the known susceptible genotype in the UK appears to be in decline.

  11. Self-care project for faculty and staff of future health care professionals: Case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacRae, Nancy; Strout, Kelley

    2015-01-01

    Self-care among health care providers is an important component of their ability to provide quality health care to patients. Health care institutions have programs in place for students that emphasize health and wellness, but few programs are available for faculty and staff. To address this gap and facilitate modeling health and wellness strategies for students, a New England institution that educates health care practitioners began a pilot self-care project for faculty and staff. Both quantitative and qualitative data were collected. The template used for this project could be used as a stepping-stone for future wellness self-care program in higher education for faculty, staff, and students.

  12. Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Preston, Samuel H.; Andrew Stokes; Mehta, Neil K.; Bochen Cao

    2012-01-01

    We project the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010-2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these projections. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts were age 25. To these distributions we apply death rates by current and...

  13. Det europæiske Model Company Law Act Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Paul Krüger; Baums, Theodor

    2008-01-01

    På initiativ af forfatterne til det følgende blev der i 2007 dannet en europæisk gruppe af fremtrædende selskabsretseksperter med henblik på at udforme en »European Model Company Law Act« (EMCLA). Gruppen holdt sit første møde i Århus i september 2007.  ...

  14. A short history of the future: Australian climate projections 1987–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Penny H. Whetton

    2016-09-01

    There are a number of perennial issues, trends and tensions, which may be of interest to future production of regional projections for Australia and other regions. For example, managing and communicating uncertainty in future climate due to differing emissions and model responses has been a perennial element of the projections. There has been a trend towards wider scope in variables analysed, time periods discussed and use of peer review, as well as greater content in the statements over time, partly reflecting available modelling results and the increasing range, needs and sophistication of users. There are several notable tensions in this work, reflected in some approaches being adopted and then dropped in subsequent statements. Examples include the choice of spatial resolution, the use of probability, model evaluation and expert judgement. These tensions reflect the difficulty in striking the right balance between competing scientific considerations or between scientific credibility and saliency for users.

  15. Interannual variability and future projection of summertime ocean wave heights in the western North Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Sasaki

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available A 70-yr (from 1985–1995 to 2055–2065 change of decadal mean summertime extreme significant wave heights (SWH in the western North Pacific under CO2-induced global warming condition is projected. For this purpose, possible atmospheric fields under future global warming are derived from 10-yr time-slice experiments using a T106 AGCM. The future changes of SWH are assessed by an empirical approach, where possible changes of SWH are estimated using a linear regression model which shows an empirical relationship between SWH anomalies and an eastward shift of the monsoon trough. It is projected that SWH increases by up to ~0.4 m over a wide area of the western North Pacific.

  16. Self-defining memories and self-defining future projections in hypomania-prone individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lardi Robyn, Claudia; Ghisletta, Paolo; Van der Linden, Martial

    2012-06-01

    Mania and hypomania involve dysfunctional beliefs about the self, others, and the world, as well about affect regulation. The present study explored the impact of these beliefs on self-defining memories and self-defining future projections of individuals with a history of hypomanic symptoms. The main findings showed that a history of hypomanic symptoms was related to enhanced retrieval of memories describing positive relationships and to reduced future projections about relationships, suggesting both a need for social bonding and a striving for autonomy. Moreover, hypomania-prone individuals tended to describe more recent events and to produce self-defining memories with references to tension that were more integrated in their self-structure. All of these findings support the presence of conflicting dysfunctional beliefs and the importance of memories containing references to tension in hypomania.

  17. Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium

    OpenAIRE

    Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan; Kunst, Anton

    2009-01-01

    textabstractObjective Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This paper tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated to proximity to death whereas mild disability is not. Study Design and Setting Using data from the GLOBE study, the association of three levels of self-reported ADL disability with age and proximity to death was studied using...

  18. Sea-level change and projected future flooding along the Egyptian Mediterranean coast

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Future sea-level changes along the Mediterranean Egyptian coast (southern Levantine sub-basin) are projected using satellite altimetry data and model simulations. Twenty-one years (1993–2013) of satellite altimetry data, represented by dynamic topography (DT), are examined in light of tide-gauge observations. Current DT changes are examined with respect to five atmospheric/oceanic factors. The qualities of three realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model are examin...

  19. Beyond scenario planning: projecting the future using models at Wind Cave National Park (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, D. A.; Bachelet, D. M.; Symstad, A. J.

    2011-12-01

    Scenario planning has been used by the National Park Service as a tool for natural resource management planning in the face of climate change. Sets of plausible but divergent future scenarios are constructed from available information and expert opinion and serve as starting point to derive climate-smart management strategies. However, qualitative hypotheses about how systems would react to a particular set of conditions assumed from coarse scale climate projections may lack the scientific rigor expected from a federal agency. In an effort to better assess the range of likely futures at Wind Cave National Park, a project was conceived to 1) generate high resolution historic and future climate time series to identify local weather patterns that may or may not persist, 2) simulate the hydrological cycle in this geologically varied landscape and its response to future climate, 3) project vegetation dynamics and ensuing changes in the biogeochemical cycles given grazing and fire disturbances under new climate conditions, and 4) synthesize and compare results with those from the scenario planning exercise. In this framework, we tested a dynamic global vegetation model against local information on vegetation cover, disturbance history and stream flow to better understand the potential resilience of these ecosystems to climate change. We discuss the tradeoffs between a coarse scale application of the model showing regional trends with limited ability to project the fine scale mosaic of vegetation at Wind Cave, and a finer scale approach that can account for local slope effects on water balance and better assess the vulnerability of landscape facets, but requires more intensive data acquisition. We elaborate on the potential for sharing information between models to mitigate the often-limited treatment of biological feedbacks in the physical representations of soil and atmospheric processes.

  20. The Development of Future Technology Teachers’ Artistic-Projective Abilities: Foreign Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurach Mykola

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The necessity to form and develop future technology teachers’ creative abilities has been stressed in the article. The psychologic-pedagogical researches of the leading specialists from Europe, the USA and Japan in the field of creative work and creativity have been analyzed. The main problems of the creative artistic-projective abilities development have been determined based on the analysis and synthesis of foreign and native philosophic, pedagogical and psychological literature dedicated to characteristics of such notions as “creative work” and “creativity”. Approaches and conceptions providing students – future technology teachers – with creative activities have been singled out. The gist of psychological mechanism for forming teachers’ creative personality has been established and its basic features have been determined as a result of the world experience of the theory and methods of creative abilities development generalization. The main features are as follows: an independence and an inclination towards divergent behavior; flexibility of thinking and readiness for everything new; motivation for self-actualization; striving for self-expressing and ability to creative work; ability to find out how to set and solve the problems. It has been mentioned that the technology teachers’ artistic-projective activity requires their creative abilities development, which, in their turn, are formed on the ground of well-developed general and special (art, projective, technological, pedagogical potencies. Therefore, the effectiveness of the students’ art-projective knowledge and skills forming depends upon the extent their general, special and creative abilities have been developed. That is why skillful and pedagogically correct organization of future technology teachers’ artistic-projective activities will inevitably provide the higher qualitatively new level of their creative abilities and creativity.

  1. Sensitivity of Regional Hydropower Generation to the Projected Changes in Future Watershed Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, S. C.; Naz, B. S.; Gangrade, S.

    2015-12-01

    Hydropower is a key contributor to the renewable energy portfolio due to its established development history and the diverse benefits it provides to the electric power systems. With the projected change in the future watershed hydrology, including shift of snowmelt timing, increasing occurrence of extreme precipitation, and change in drought frequencies, there is a need to investigate how the regional hydropower generation may change correspondingly. To evaluate the sensitivity of watershed storage and hydropower generation to future climate change, a lumped Watershed Runoff-Energy Storage (WRES) model is developed to simulate the annual and seasonal hydropower generation at various hydropower areas in the United States. For each hydropower study area, the WRES model use the monthly precipitation and naturalized (unregulated) runoff as inputs to perform a runoff mass balance calculation for the total monthly runoff storage in all reservoirs and retention facilities in the watershed, and simulate the monthly regulated runoff release and hydropower generation through the system. The WRES model is developed and calibrated using the historic (1980-2009) monthly precipitation, runoff, and generation data, and then driven by a large set of dynamically- and statistically-downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections to simulate the change of watershed storage and hydropower generation under different future climate scenarios. The results among different hydropower regions, storage capacities, emission scenarios, and timescales are compared and discussed in this study.

  2. A Critical Analysis of Climate Change Factors and its Projected Future Values in Delta State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emaziye, P. O., R. N. Okoh

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The study focused on the critical analysis of climate change factors (temperature and rainfall and its projected future values in the state. The main objective was to determine the trends of climate change factors (temperature and rainfall. And the specific objective was to determine the projected future trends of climate change factors in the state. Multistage sampling procedure was used in the random selection of states, local government, communities and rural households for the research study. Annual mean time series data of temperature and rainfall were collected from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET. Data were also obtained from structure questionnaire survey. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, trend analysis and growth model. The study reveals that there were increasing trends of temperature values and decreasing rainfall values in the state. But their projected future values witnessed an increasing trend. The increasing trends in temperature values may lead to a situation were crops will be smothered by excessive heat thereby reducing food production in the state. The study therefore recommends that meteorological station units should be established in the rural farming households in the state where accessibility is extremely difficult. This will make available meteorological data (information to the reach of the poor rural farming household for the attainment of food production.

  3. The Present and Future Energy Performance of the First Passivhaus Project in the Gulf Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    May Khalfan

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available With voluntary and mandatory energy performance standards now becoming more common around the world, schemes to develop low energy buildings have become more apparent in developed countries. The Passivhaus standard, established 25 years ago in Germany, is one the most stringent and promising low energy building standards in Europe. It started as a construction concept applied to residential buildings, but has since spread as a voluntary ultra-low energy efficient standard to different parts of the world. Qatar, a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC states, announced in 2013 the completion of the first Passivhaus project in the Gulf Region. The current and future performance of the Passivhaus project in Qatar was investigated in this study using current and future climate scenarios. Computer modelling was used to simulate the energy performance of the house and the thermal comfort of the occupants. In addition, on-site measurements were made to corroborate the modelling outcomes. Further, the impacts of climate change on the Passivhaus project was examined, and comparative analyses were undertaken. The findings suggested that the Passivhaus performs well under the current and the future weather data sets. Furthermore, the modelling indicates that the Qatar house is close to achieving the Passivhaus standard.

  4. Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hooidonk, Ruben; Maynard, Jeffrey; Tamelander, Jerker; Gove, Jamison; Ahmadia, Gabby; Raymundo, Laurie; Williams, Gareth; Heron, Scott F.; Planes, Serge

    2016-12-01

    Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution projections (~1 × 1°) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies >10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with >500 km2 of reef area. Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges do little to provide reefs with more time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring annually. RCP4.5 adds 11 years to the global average ASB timing when compared to RCP8.5; however, >75% of reefs still experience ASB before 2070 under RCP4.5. Coral reef futures clearly vary greatly among and within countries, indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during conservation and management planning.

  5. Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de, E-mail: fabio@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Nuclear and Engineering Center; Imakuma, Kengo, E-mail: kimakuma@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Information Technology Development Dept.

    2011-07-01

    This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

  6. Social work and the Uniform Accident and Sickness Policy Provision Law: a pilot project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochran, Gerald; Davis, King

    2012-01-01

    The Uniform Accident and Sickness Policy Provision Law (UPPL) is a statute existing in 26 states that permits health insurance companies to deny payment for claims made by individuals who have sustained injuries as a result of drug or alcohol use. This law presents a series of complicated clinical and ethical dilemmas for social workers and other medical personnel. The majority of contributions to the national discussion regarding the UPPL have been produced by the medical, nursing, and policy/legal disciplines. Social work has, however, remained silent. It is paramount that social workers add their perspective and insight to this debate. This article discusses the first survey, to the authors' knowledge, of social workers practicing in health care settings regarding their knowledge and beliefs about the UPPL.

  7. Future hydrological regimes of the upper Indus basin: results from the PAPRIKA project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocchiola, Daniele; Soncini, Andrea; Confortola, Gabriele; Nana, Ester; Bianchi, Alberto; Rosso, Renzo; Diolaiuti, Guglielmina; Smiraglia, Claudio; von Hardenberg, Jost; Palazzi, Elisa; Provenzale, Antonello; Giorgi, Filippo; Solmon, Fabien; Vuillermoz, Elisa

    2013-04-01

    The mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKKH) are the "third pole" of our planet, and the glaciers in this area play the role of "water towers", delivering significant amounts of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. The recent dynamics of glaciers in the Karakoram area is also called the "Karakoram anomaly", characterized by substantially unchanged ice cover during the last decade, against noticeable area loss worldwide, possibly leading to slightly decreasing stream fluxes. Yet, recent major floods occurring in Pakistan and the Karakoram area, may represent an effect of modified climate in the area, carrying heavier precipitation in the Monsoon season. Therefore, and notwithstanding the uncertainty embedded in measuring and modelling the hydrological behaviour of this area, there is a great need for assessment of future water resources and hydrological variability in this area. We present here results obtained at year two of the SHARE-Paprika project of the EvK2CNR Committee of Italy, aiming at evaluating the impact of recent and prospective climate change on the hydrology of the upper Indus river. We focus here on a particular watershed, the Shigar river close to Shigar, with an area of about 7000 km2, nested within the upper Indus basin, and fed by seasonal melt from two major glaciers (Baltoro and Biafo), at the toe of the K2 peak. We illustrate data gathered during three field campaigns during 2011-2012, aimed at investigating ice ablation dynamics, seasonal accumulation, and hydrological fluxes from the Baltoro-Biafo glaciers area and Shigar river. Based upon these data, topographic information, historical climate data and remote sensing data of ice and snow cover, we set up a semi-distributed, altitude belt based hydrological model, providing acceptable depiction of in stream flows, and snow and ice cover dynamics. We then project the future (until 2050

  8. Uncertainties in Projecting Future Changes in Atmospheric Rivers and Their Impacts on Heavy Precipitation over Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby

    2016-09-01

    This study investigates the North Atlantic atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall over western Europe in the present and future climate from the multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Overall, CMIP5 captures the seasonal and spatial variations of historical landfalling AR days, with the large inter-model variability strongly correlated with the inter-model spread of historical jet position. Under RCP 8.5, AR frequency is projected to increase a few times by the end of this century. While thermodynamics plays a dominate role in the future increase of ARs, wind changes associated with the midlatitude jet shifts also significantly contribute to AR changes, resulting in dipole change patterns in all seasons. In the North Atlantic, the model projected jet shifts are strongly correlated with the simulated historical jet position. As models exhibit predominantly equatorward biases in the historical jet position, the large poleward jet shifts reduce AR days south of the historical mean jet position through the dynamical connections between the jet positions and AR days. Using the observed historical jet position as an emergent constraint, dynamical effects further increase AR days in the future above the large increases due to thermodynamical effects. In the future, both total and extreme precipitation induced by AR contribute more to the seasonal mean and extreme precipitation compared to present primarily because of the increase in AR frequency. While AR precipitation intensity generally increases more relative to the increase in integrated vapor transport, AR extreme precipitation intensity increases much less.

  9. Chinese villages and their sustainable future: the European Union-China-Research Project "SUCCESS".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumreicher, Heidi

    2008-04-01

    China has 800,000 villages-one person out of seven on the globe is living in a Chinese rural settlement. Yet the global discussions about the situation in China is currently characterised by a disproportionate focus on the development of towns and until now circumstances have generally been neglected in the rural areas, where 70% of the Chinese population is still living. Within the 5 years of the SUCCESS project research, this set of actual problems has been considered and analysed under the principle of sustainability: "What to maintain?" "What to change?" were the overall research questions asked in the SUCCESS project; the researchers were looking for answers under a sustainability regime, respecting the need to raise the quality of life in the villages. Several interweaving processes were used to achieve results: the inter-disciplinary research process between many areas of expertise, the trans-disciplinary process between the researchers and the Chinese villagers, and a negotiation process that made the connection between these two processes. The introduction describes the basic sustainability definition that was orienting the whole study. The innovation lays mostly in the methodology: the inter-disciplinary research co-operation related to practice and to involving the affected communities is needed to manage the significant and growing imbalances between urban and rural areas regarding their sustainability. In the transdisciplinary work, the project developed "village future sentences" that describe the local outcome of the research as one step towards better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms that could lead to a sustainable future, and they also managed to start sustainability processes in the case study sites. The integrated approach of the project helped generating future scenarios for these villages covering all aspects of their development, including urban design issues. Out of these scenarios, the villages developed small projects that could

  10. How climate, migration ability and habitat fragmentation affect the projected future distribution of European beech.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saltré, Frédérik; Duputié, Anne; Gaucherel, Cédric; Chuine, Isabelle

    2015-02-01

    Recent efforts to incorporate migration processes into species distribution models (SDMs) are allowing assessments of whether species are likely to be able to track their future climate optimum and the possible causes of failing to do so. Here, we projected the range shift of European beech over the 21st century using a process-based SDM coupled to a phenomenological migration model accounting for population dynamics, according to two climate change scenarios and one land use change scenario. Our model predicts that the climatically suitable habitat for European beech will shift north-eastward and upward mainly because (i) higher temperature and precipitation, at the northern range margins, will increase survival and fruit maturation success, while (ii) lower precipitations and higher winter temperature, at the southern range margins, will increase drought mortality and prevent bud dormancy breaking. Beech colonization rate of newly climatically suitable habitats in 2100 is projected to be very low (1-2% of the newly suitable habitats colonised). Unexpectedly, the projected realized contraction rate was higher than the projected potential contraction rate. As a result, the realized distribution of beech is projected to strongly contract by 2100 (by 36-61%) mainly due to a substantial increase in climate variability after 2050, which generates local extinctions, even at the core of the distribution, the frequency of which prevents beech recolonization during more favourable years. Although European beech will be able to persist in some parts of the trailing edge of its distribution, the combined effects of climate and land use changes, limited migration ability, and a slow life-history are likely to increase its threat status in the near future. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. The vertical distribution of physical parameters in the Gulf of Riga for future climate projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valainis, Aigars; Sennikovs, Juris

    2010-05-01

    Our goal was to investigate the vertical distribution of physical parameters (temperature, salinity) in the Gulf of Riga for the contemporay climate and for future climate projections. The Gulf of Riga is a semi-enclosed subbasin of the Baltic Sea between Latvia and Estonia. The area of the Gulf of Riga is about 18,000 sq. km. The maximum depth is 67 m. The island of Saaremaa partially separates it from the rest of the Baltic Sea. The main connection of the Gulf with the Baltic Proper is the Irbe Strait allowing limited exchanges with Baltic see. The Gulf of Riga was modelled with 1D model. Calculations were made for 55 m deep water column, taking into account hypsographic curve. The General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) was used. Second order dynamic k-e equation with parameterization from Cheng (2002) was used for turbulence description. The result sensitivity was evaluated regarding models choice. Data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) where used for calibration and verification period. Data included ECMWF ERA 40 for time period 1957-2002, and ECMWF ERA Interim for 1989-2009. Regional climate models (RCM) and scenarios for future climate change were obtained from Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE) project. Time period for future physical parameter vertical distribution simulation was 2071-2100. We applied the bias correction (via histogram equalisation) of RCM data. We employed the setup of hydrological models to generate the contemporary and future river run-off data series Our results conclude that in future the Gulf won't freeze over. In summer surface temperature will increase at least by 2 degrees Celsius. Vertical stratification will begin a month earlier - as a consequence the time period of full mixing will be shorter.

  12. [Between law and psychiatry: homosexuality in the project of the Swiss penal code (1918)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delessert, Thierry

    2005-01-01

    In 1942 the Swiss penal code depenalises homosexual acts between agreeing adults under some conditions. The genesis of the penal article shows that it was constructed before the First World War and bears marks of the forensic theories of the turn of the century. Both by direct contacts and the authority of its eminent figures, Swiss psychiatry exerts an unquestionable influence on the depenalisation. The conceptualisation of homosexuality is also strongly influenced by the German psychiatric theories and discussed in reference to Germanic law. By the penal article, the Swiss lawyers and psychiatrists link the homosexual question with the determination of the irresponsibility of criminal mental patients and degeneracy.

  13. Climate projections of future extreme events accounting for modelling uncertainties and historical simulation biases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Simon J.; Murphy, James M.; Sexton, David M. H.; Harris, Glen R.

    2014-11-01

    A methodology is presented for providing projections of absolute future values of extreme weather events that takes into account key uncertainties in predicting future climate. This is achieved by characterising both observed and modelled extremes with a single form of non-stationary extreme value (EV) distribution that depends on global mean temperature and which includes terms that account for model bias. Such a distribution allows the prediction of future "observed" extremes for any period in the twenty-first century. Uncertainty in modelling future climate, arising from a wide range of atmospheric, oceanic, sulphur cycle and carbon cycle processes, is accounted for by using probabilistic distributions of future global temperature and EV parameters. These distributions are generated by Bayesian sampling of emulators with samples weighted by their likelihood with respect to a set of observational constraints. The emulators are trained on a large perturbed parameter ensemble of global simulations of the recent past, and the equilibrium response to doubled CO2. Emulated global EV parameters are converted to the relevant regional scale through downscaling relationships derived from a smaller perturbed parameter regional climate model ensemble. The simultaneous fitting of the EV model to regional model data and observations allows the characterisation of how observed extremes may change in the future irrespective of biases that may be present in the regional models simulation of the recent past climate. The clearest impact of a parameter perturbation in this ensemble was found to be the depth to which plants can access water. Members with shallow soils tend to be biased hot and dry in summer for the observational period. These biases also appear to have an impact on the potential future response for summer temperatures with some members with shallow soils having increases for extremes that reduce with extreme severity. We apply this methodology for London, using the

  14. Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, David; Hagenlocher, Michael; Jones, Anne E; Kienberger, Stefan; Leedale, Joseph; Morse, Andrew P

    2016-03-31

    Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a relatively recently emerged zoonosis endemic to large parts of sub-Saharan Africa that has the potential to spread beyond the continent, have profound health and socio-economic impacts, particularly in communities where resilience is already low. Here output from a new, dynamic disease model [the Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model], driven by downscaled, bias-corrected climate change data from an ensemble of global circulation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project run according to two radiative forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5], is combined with results of a spatial assessment of social vulnerability to the disease in eastern Africa. The combined approach allowed for analyses of spatial and temporal variations in the risk of RVF to the end of the current century. Results for both scenarios highlight the high-risk of future RVF outbreaks, including in parts of eastern Africa to date unaffected by the disease. The results also highlight the risk of spread from/to countries adjacent to the study area, and possibly farther afield, and the value of considering the geography of future projections of disease risk. Based on the results, there is a clear need to remain vigilant and to invest not only in surveillance and early warning systems, but also in addressing the socio-economic factors that underpin social vulnerability in order to mitigate, effectively, future impacts.

  15. Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang; K C, Samir

    2010-09-27

    The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8-10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.

  16. Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.

    2014-09-01

    A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

  17. Futurism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foy, Jane Loring

    The objectives of this research report are to gain insight into the main problems of the future and to ascertain the attitudes that the general population has toward the treatment of these problems. In the first section of this report the future is explored socially, psychologically, and environmentally. The second section describes the techniques…

  18. Proceedings No. 41. Audition of M. Francois Loos, Delegate Minister of Industry, about the law project relative to the management of radioactive materials and wastes; Compte rendu n. 41. Audition de M. Francois Loos, ministre delegue a l'industrie, sur le projet de loi relatif a la gestion des matieres et dechets radioactifs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-03-15

    The project of law about the management of radioactive materials and wastes is the logical continuation of the law no 91-1381 from December 30, 1991 relative to the researches on radioactive waste management. At the occasion of the presentation of this law project at the board of ministers, F. Loos, the French minister of industry, presented this project the same day also at the house of commons. This document is the proceedings of the audition of F. Loos. It comprises a brief recall of the researches carried out so far and a presentation of the 3 main points of the project of law: reprocessing of spent fuels and recycling in reactors, interim surface storage of non-recyclable wastes, and underground reversible disposal of ultimate wastes. One aspect of the project concerns the scheduling of future research works according to the 3 ways defined in the 1991 law: storage, disposal and transmutation. This presentation is followed by questions from the deputies about some particular points of the project like the safety aspects, the selection of storage sites, the acceptance and information of the public, the financial aspects etc. (J.S.)

  19. COMPARISON OF THREE METHODS TO PROJECT FUTURE BASELINE CARBON EMISSIONS IN TEMPERATE RAINFOREST, CURINANCO, CHILE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patrick Gonzalez; Antonio Lara; Jorge Gayoso; Eduardo Neira; Patricio Romero; Leonardo Sotomayor

    2005-07-14

    Deforestation of temperate rainforests in Chile has decreased the provision of ecosystem services, including watershed protection, biodiversity conservation, and carbon sequestration. Forest conservation can restore those ecosystem services. Greenhouse gas policies that offer financing for the carbon emissions avoided by preventing deforestation require a projection of future baseline carbon emissions for an area if no forest conservation occurs. For a proposed 570 km{sup 2} conservation area in temperate rainforest around the rural community of Curinanco, Chile, we compared three methods to project future baseline carbon emissions: extrapolation from Landsat observations, Geomod, and Forest Restoration Carbon Analysis (FRCA). Analyses of forest inventory and Landsat remote sensing data show 1986-1999 net deforestation of 1900 ha in the analysis area, proceeding at a rate of 0.0003 y{sup -1}. The gross rate of loss of closed natural forest was 0.042 y{sup -1}. In the period 1986-1999, closed natural forest decreased from 20,000 ha to 11,000 ha, with timber companies clearing natural forest to establish plantations of non-native species. Analyses of previous field measurements of species-specific forest biomass, tree allometry, and the carbon content of vegetation show that the dominant native forest type, broadleaf evergreen (bosque siempreverde), contains 370 {+-} 170 t ha{sup -1} carbon, compared to the carbon density of non-native Pinus radiata plantations of 240 {+-} 60 t ha{sup -1}. The 1986-1999 conversion of closed broadleaf evergreen forest to open broadleaf evergreen forest, Pinus radiata plantations, shrublands, grasslands, urban areas, and bare ground decreased the carbon density from 370 {+-} 170 t ha{sup -1} carbon to an average of 100 t ha{sup -1} (maximum 160 t ha{sup -1}, minimum 50 t ha{sup -1}). Consequently, the conversion released 1.1 million t carbon. These analyses of forest inventory and Landsat remote sensing data provided the data to

  20. Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: how fine scale do climate projections need to be?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Janet; Davis, Frank W; Ikegami, Makihiko; Syphard, Alexandra D; Flint, Lorraine E; Flint, Alan L; Hannah, Lee

    2013-02-01

    Recent studies suggest that species distribution models (SDMs) based on fine-scale climate data may provide markedly different estimates of climate-change impacts than coarse-scale models. However, these studies disagree in their conclusions of how scale influences projected species distributions. In rugged terrain, coarse-scale climate grids may not capture topographically controlled climate variation at the scale that constitutes microhabitat or refugia for some species. Although finer scale data are therefore considered to better reflect climatic conditions experienced by species, there have been few formal analyses of how modeled distributions differ with scale. We modeled distributions for 52 plant species endemic to the California Floristic Province of different life forms and range sizes under recent and future climate across a 2000-fold range of spatial scales (0.008-16 km(2) ). We produced unique current and future climate datasets by separately downscaling 4 km climate models to three finer resolutions based on 800, 270, and 90 m digital elevation models and deriving bioclimatic predictors from them. As climate-data resolution became coarser, SDMs predicted larger habitat area with diminishing spatial congruence between fine- and coarse-scale predictions. These trends were most pronounced at the coarsest resolutions and depended on climate scenario and species' range size. On average, SDMs projected onto 4 km climate data predicted 42% more stable habitat (the amount of spatial overlap between predicted current and future climatically suitable habitat) compared with 800 m data. We found only modest agreement between areas predicted to be stable by 90 m models generalized to 4 km grids compared with areas classified as stable based on 4 km models, suggesting that some climate refugia captured at finer scales may be missed using coarser scale data. These differences in projected locations of habitat change may have more serious implications than net

  1. Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainali, Kumar P; Warren, Dan L; Dhileepan, Kunjithapatham; McConnachie, Andrew; Strathie, Lorraine; Hassan, Gul; Karki, Debendra; Shrestha, Bharat B; Parmesan, Camille

    2015-12-01

    Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium

  2. Report from the national defense and armed forces commission on the law project related to the acknowledgment and compensation for the victims of the French nuclear tests; Rapport fait au nom de la commission de la defense nationale et des forces armees sur le projet de loi (n. 1696) relatif a la reconnaissance et a l'indemnisation des victimes des essais nucleaires francais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-07-01

    The report is a presentation and analysis of a French law project, that would give acknowledgment and compensation for those - military and civilian personnel as well as nearby populations - who suffered by being exposed to radiations during the French nuclear tests in Sahara and French Polynesia between 1960 and 1998. The law project gives details on the relevant periods of time, and about the inquiry and compensation procedures for each case. The future law is intended to ease the procedure for victims to prove the existence of a link between their pathology and their activity during the experimentations; it should also allow compensations for civilian populations that may have suffered from radioactive fallout.

  3. Assessing Risk in Costing High-energy Accelerators: from Existing Projects to the Future Linear Collider

    CERN Document Server

    Lebrun, Philippe

    2010-01-01

    High-energy accelerators are large projects funded by public money, developed over the years and constructed via major industrial contracts both in advanced technology and in more conventional domains such as civil engineering and infrastructure, for which they often constitute one-of markets. Assessing their cost, as well as the risk and uncertainty associated with this assessment is therefore an essential part of project preparation and a justified requirement by the funding agencies. Stemming from the experience with large circular colliders at CERN, LEP and LHC, as well as with the Main Injector, the Tevatron Collider Experiments and Accelerator Upgrades, and the NOvA Experiment at Fermilab, we discuss sources of cost variance and derive cost risk assessment methods applicable to the future linear collider, through its two technical approaches for ILC and CLIC. We also address disparities in cost risk assessment imposed by regional differences in regulations, procedures and practices.

  4. Planning and managing future space facility projects. [management by objectives and group dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieber, J. E.; Wilhelm, J. A.; Tanner, T. A.; Helmreich, R. L.; Burgenbauch, S. F.

    1979-01-01

    To learn how ground-based personnel of a space project plan and organize their work and how such planning and organizing relate to work outcomes, longitudinal study of the management and execution of the Space Lab Mission Development Test 3 (SMD 3) was performed at NASA Ames Research Center. A view of the problems likely to arise in organizations and some methods of coping with these problems are presented as well as the conclusions and recommendations that pertain strictly to SMD 3 management. Emphasis is placed on the broader context of future space facility projects and additional problems that may be anticipated. A model of management that may be used to facilitate problem solving and communication - management by objectives (MBO) is presented. Some problems of communication and emotion management that MBO does not address directly are considered. Models for promoting mature, constructive and satisfying emotional relationships among group members are discussed.

  5. Present status and future prospect for national project on lithium batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodama, Teruo; Sakaebe, Hikari

    Sales of lithium-ion battery in Japan increased so sharply since the battery was on sale in 1992. `Dispersed-type Battery Energy Storage Technology' of New Sunshine (AIST) program have stimulated R&D of lithium batteries in Japan. In this project on lithium batteries, Osaka National Research Institute (ONRI) plays a main role by coordinating the project from a neutral standpoint and supporting it with a basic research for battery material. A research background for electrochemical devices and research activity in the field of lithium battery at ONRI are introduced. Then, future prospect of a role of battery in a society in the next century is described regarding to an `environment' and `human being'.

  6. A Project-Based Course on Newton's Laws for Talented Junior High-School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langbeheim, Elon

    2015-01-01

    Research has shown that project-based learning promotes student interest in science and improves understanding of scientific content. Fostering student motivation is particularly important in accelerated science and technology programmes for talented students, which are often demanding and time-consuming. Current texts provide little guidance on…

  7. Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur, E-mail: mdmamunur.rashid@mymail.unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Beecham, Simon, E-mail: simon.beecham@unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Chowdhury, Rezaul K., E-mail: rezaulkabir@uaeu.ac.ae [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, PO Box 15551 (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-10-15

    A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages. - Highlights: • A generalized linear model was used for multi-site daily rainfall downscaling. • Rainfall was downscaled from CMIP5 GCM outputs. • Two multi-model ensemble approaches were used. • Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping

  8. Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

    2011-01-01

    California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  9. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M.; Mai, T.; Newes, E.; Aden, A.; Warner, E.; Uriarte, C.; Inman, D.; Simpkins, T.; Argo, A.

    2013-03-01

    The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  10. Transportation Energy Futures Series. Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Aden, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Warner, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Simpkins, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Argo, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-03-01

    The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  11. Linking climate change projections for an Alaskan watershed to future coho salmon production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leppi, Jason C; Rinella, Daniel J; Wilson, Ryan R; Loya, Wendy M

    2014-06-01

    Climate change is predicted to dramatically change hydrologic processes across Alaska, but estimates of how these impacts will influence specific watersheds and aquatic species are lacking. Here, we linked climate, hydrology, and habitat models within a coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) population model to assess how projected climate change could affect survival at each freshwater life stage and, in turn, production of coho salmon smolts in three subwatersheds of the Chuitna (Chuit) River watershed, Alaska. Based on future climate scenarios and projections from a three-dimensional hydrology model, we simulated coho smolt production over a 20-year span at the end of the century (2080-2100). The direction (i.e., positive vs. negative) and magnitude of changes in smolt production varied substantially by climate scenario and subwatershed. Projected smolt production decreased in all three subwatersheds under the minimum air temperature and maximum precipitation scenario due to elevated peak flows and a resulting 98% reduction in egg-to-fry survival. In contrast, the maximum air temperature and minimum precipitation scenario led to an increase in smolt production in all three subwatersheds through an increase in fry survival. Other climate change scenarios led to mixed responses, with projected smolt production increasing and decreasing in different subwatersheds. Our analysis highlights the complexity inherent in predicting climate-change-related impacts to salmon populations and demonstrates that population effects may depend on interactions between the relative magnitude of hydrologic and thermal changes and their interactions with features of the local habitat.

  12. Autonoetic consciousness: Reconsidering the role of episodic memory in future-oriented self-projection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Stanley B

    2016-01-01

    Following the seminal work of Ingvar (1985. "Memory for the future": An essay on the temporal organization of conscious awareness. Human Neurobiology, 4, 127-136), Suddendorf (1994. The discovery of the fourth dimension: Mental time travel and human evolution. Master's thesis. University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand), and Tulving (1985. Memory and consciousness. Canadian Psychology/PsychologieCanadienne, 26, 1-12), exploration of the ability to anticipate and prepare for future contingencies that cannot be known with certainty has grown into a thriving research enterprise. A fundamental tenet of this line of inquiry is that future-oriented mental time travel, in most of its presentations, is underwritten by a property or an extension of episodic recollection. However, a careful conceptual analysis of exactly how episodic memory functions in this capacity has yet to be undertaken. In this paper I conduct such an analysis. Based on conceptual, phenomenological, and empirical considerations, I conclude that the autonoetic component of episodic memory, not episodic memory per se, is the causally determinative factor enabling an individual to project him or herself into a personal future.

  13. Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2017-04-01

    Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

  14. Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aich, Valentin; Liersch, Stefan; Vetter, Tobias; Fournet, Samuel; Andersson, Jafet C M; Calmanti, Sandro; van Weert, Frank H A; Hattermann, Fred F; Paton, Eva N

    2016-08-15

    This study assesses future flood risk in the Niger River Basin (NRB), for the first time considering the simultaneous effects of both projected climate change and land use changes. For this purpose, an ecohydrological process-based model (SWIM) was set up and validated for past climate and land use dynamics of the entire NRB. Model runs for future flood risks were conducted with an ensemble of 18 climate models, 13 of them dynamically downscaled from the CORDEX Africa project and five statistically downscaled Earth System Models. Two climate and two land use change scenarios were used to cover a broad range of potential developments in the region. Two flood indicators (annual 90th percentile and the 20-year return flood) were used to assess the future flood risk for the Upper, Middle and Lower Niger as well as the Benue. The modeling results generally show increases of flood magnitudes when comparing a scenario period in the near future (2021-2050) with a base period (1976-2005). Land use effects are more uncertain, but trends and relative changes for the different catchments of the NRB seem robust. The dry areas of the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of the basin show a particularly high sensitivity to climatic and land use changes, with an alarming increase of flood magnitudes in parts. A scenario with continuing transformation of natural vegetation into agricultural land and urbanization intensifies the flood risk in all parts of the NRB, while a "regreening" scenario can reduce flood magnitudes to some extent. Yet, land use change effects were smaller when compared to the effects of climate change. In the face of an already existing adaptation deficit to catastrophic flooding in the region, the authors argue for a mix of adaptation and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the flood risk in the NRB.

  15. Future Evolution of Marine Heat Waves in the Mediterranean: Coupled Regional Climate Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmaraki, Sofia; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Nabat, Pierre; Cavicchia, Leone; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry

    2017-04-01

    FUTURE EVOLUTION OF MARINE HEAT WAVES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN : COUPLED REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS The Mediterranean area is identified as a « Hot Spot » region, vulnerable to future climate change with potentially strong impacts over the sea. By 2100, climate models predict increased warming over the sea surface, with possible implications on the Mediterranean thermohaline and surface circulation,associated also with severe impacts on the ecosystems (e.g. fish habitat loss, species extinction and migration, invasive species). However, a robust assesment of the future evolution of the extreme marine temperatures remains still an open issue of primary importance, under the anthropogenic pressure. In this context, we study here the probability and characteristics of marine heat wave (MHW) occurrence in the Mediterranean Sea in future climate projections. To this end, we use an ensemble of fully coupled regional climate system models (RCSM) from the Med- CORDEX initiative. This multi-model approach includes a high-resolution representation of the atmospheric, land and ocean component, with a free air-sea interface.Specifically, dedicated simulations for the 20th and the 21st century are carried out with respect to the different IPCC-AR5 socioeconomic scenarios (1950-2100, RCP8.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6). Model evaluation for the historical period is performed using satellite and in situ data. Then, the variety of factors that can cause the MHW (e.g. direct radiative forcing, ocean advection, stratification change) are examined to disentangle the dominant driving force. Finally, the spatial variability and temporal evolution of MHW are analyzed on an annual basis, along with additional integrated indicators, useful for marine ecosystems.

  16. Capability and dependency in the Newcastle 85+ cohort study. Projections of future care needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Little is known of the capabilities of the oldest old, the fastest growing age group in the population. We aimed to estimate capability and dependency in a cohort of 85 year olds and to project future demand for care. Methods Structured interviews at age 85 with 841 people born in 1921 and living in Newcastle and North Tyneside, UK who were permanently registered with participating general practices. Measures of capability included were self-reported activities of daily living (ADL), timed up and go test (TUG), standardised mini-mental state examination (SMMSE), and assessment of urinary continence in order to classify interval-need dependency. To project future demand for care the proportion needing 24-hour care was applied to the 2008 England and Wales population projections of those aged 80 years and over by gender. Results Of participants, 62% (522/841) were women, 77% (651/841) lived in standard housing, 13% (106/841) in sheltered housing and 10% (84/841) in a care home. Overall, 20% (165/841) reported no difficulty with any of the ADLs. Men were more capable in performing ADLs and more independent than women. TUG validated self-reported ADLs. When classified by 'interval of need' 41% (332/810) were independent, 39% (317/810) required help less often than daily, 12% (94/810) required help at regular times of the day and 8% (67/810) required 24-hour care. Of care-home residents, 94% (77/82) required daily help or 24-hour care. Future need for 24-hour care for people aged 80 years or over in England and Wales is projected to increase by 82% from 2010 to 2030 with a demand for 630,000 care-home places by 2030. Conclusions This analysis highlights the diversity of capability and levels of dependency in this cohort. A remarkably high proportion remain independent, particularly men. However a significant proportion of this population require 24-hour care at home or in care homes. Projections for the next 20 years suggest substantial increases in the

  17. The Future of Eurasian Boreal Forests: Ecological Modeling Projections in the Russian Federation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, D.; Shugart, H.

    2008-12-01

    Ecological modeling is one of the primary methodologies for making predictions on future changes in forested ecosystems such as those occurring in Northern Eurasia and Siberia. In particular, combining ecological modeling with global circulation model simulation outputs is a method in which scientists can forecast the impact of climate change on biodiversity (Thuiller, 2007) as well as the forested landscape. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have been designed for specifically this purpose, however, these vegetation models run at large spatial scales and as a result make predictions that are highly uncertain (Purves and Pacala, 2008). In previous papers, we discussed the FAREAST forest gap model and its ability to accurately predict boreal forest dynamics at smaller scales and higher resolution than DGVMs. This presentation investigates the use of the FAREAST gap model, modified for spatial expansion to cover the entire country of Russia, to predict future land cover trends under different warming scenarios. The poster provides the initial framework for the project, as well as some initial results. The collection of input variables needed by FAREAST to model the Russian continent will involve collaboration with the Russian Academy of Sciences (CEPF). Together we have developed a framework in which to amalgamate both original (temperature, precipitation, soil values) parameters as well as new parameters (fire probability, logging probability) into a GIS database that can be integrated with the FAREAST model. This framework will be capable of providing visual and graphical output for interpretation of large model runs. In order to ensure accuracy in FAREAST's ability to simulate the current environment, a run of the model under current-day conditions will be compared to recent remote sensing land cover maps. The GLC2000 land cover classification project (EU JRC) will be the primary validation method with additional validation through other biophysical

  18. ACSEPT a European project for a new step in the future demonstration of advanced fuel processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bourg, S.; Hill, C. [CEA, DRCP - Bat 181, CEA Marcoule, BP17171, 30207 Bagnols/Ceze (France); Caravaca, C.; Espartero, A. [CIEMAT, Avda. Complutense, 22 - 28040 Madrid (Spain); Rhodes, C.; Taylor, R.; Harrison, M. [National Nuclear Laboratory, Sellafield, Seascale, Cumbria, CA20 1PG (United Kingdom); EKBERG, C. [Chalmers tekniska hoegskola, Institutionen foer kemi- och bioteknik, Aemnesomraadets namn, 412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); GEIST, A. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Institut fuer Nukleare Entsorgungstechnik, P.O.B. 3640, D-76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Modolo, G. [Forschungszentrum Juelich - FZJ, D-52425 Juelich (Germany); Cassayre, L. [CNRS, Laboratoire de Genie Chimique, Toulouse (France); Malmbeck, R. [JRC-ITU, Karlsruhe (Germany); De Angelis, G. [ENEA, Casaccia, Rome (Italy); Bouvet, S. [Rio Tinto Alcan, Centre de Recherche de Voreppe, Voreppe (France); Klaassen, F. [NRG, PO Box 25, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands)

    2010-07-01

    For more than fifteen years, a European scientific community has joined its effort to develop and optimise processes for the partitioning of actinides from fission products. In an international context of 'nuclear renaissance', the upcoming of a new generation of nuclear reactor (Gen IV) will require the development of associated advanced closed fuel cycles which answer the needs of a sustainable nuclear energy: the minimization of the production of long lived radioactive waste but also the optimization of the use of natural resources with an increased resistance to proliferation. Actually, Partitioning and Transmutation (P and T), associated to a multi-recycling of all transuranics (TRUs), should play a key role in the development of this sustainable nuclear energy. By joining together 34 Partners coming from European universities, nuclear research bodies and major industrial players in a multidisciplinary consortium, the FP7 EURATOM-Fission Collaborative Project ACSEPT (Actinide recycling by Separation and Transmutation), started in 2008 for four year duration, provides the sound basis and fundamental improvements for future demonstrations of fuel treatment in strong connection with fuel fabrication techniques. Consistently with potentially viable recycling strategies, ACSEPT therefore provides a structured R and D framework to develop chemical separation processes compatible with fuel fabrication techniques, with a view to their future demonstration at the pilot level. ACSEPT is organized into three technical domains: (i) Considering technically mature aqueous separation processes, ACSEPT works to optimize and select the most promising ones dedicated either to actinide partitioning or to group actinide separation. (ii) Concerning high temperature pyrochemical separation processes, ACSEPT focuses on the enhancement of the two reference cores of process selected within previous projects. R and D efforts are now devoted to key scientific and technical

  19. The Patent Law and Its Implementing Regulations to Be Revised in China: the SIPO Inviting Tender for the Research Project to This End

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    To adapt the patent system in China to the needs of the developments of the national and international situations, the State Intellectual Property Qffice (SIPQ) has decided to launch the preparatory work on the revision of the Patent Law and its Implementing Regulations for the third time. To this end, the Office has prepared the Guide to the Research Project on the Revision of the Patent Law and its Implementing Regulations for the Third Time.

  20. Projected changes in the future distribution and production of sessile oak forests near the xeric limit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulyás, Krisztina; Berki, Imre; Veperdi, Gábor

    2017-04-01

    As a result of regional climate change, most European countries are experiencing an increase in mean annual temperature and CO2 concentration and a decrease in mean annual precipitation. In low-elevation areas in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is a limiting factor, the projected climate change threatens the health, production, and potential distribution of forest ecosystems. The intensive summer droughts and commonly occurring extreme weather events create negative influences that cause health declines, changes in yield potential, and tree mortality. Due to the observed damages, attention has been focused on these problems. The impacts of climatic extremes cause difficulties in forest management; these difficulties occur more frequently in Hungary, which is a region that is the most sensitive to climatic extremes. Regional climate model simulations project that the frequency of extremely high temperatures and long-term dry periods will increase; both of these factors have negative effects on future tree species distribution and production. Thus, the aim of our study is to utilize the sessile oak (Quercus petraea) as a climate indicator tree species to investigate potential future distribution and estimate changes in growth trends. For future spatial distribution, we used the Fuzzy membership distribution model in a new Decision Support System (DSS) which was developed for the Hungarian forestry and agricultural sectors. Through study techniques we can employ DSS, which contains various environmental layers (topography, vegetation, past and projected future climate, soils, and hydrology), to create probability distribution maps. The results, based on 12 regional climate model simulations (www.ensembles-eu.org), show that the area of sessile oak forests is shrinking continuously and will continue to do so to the end of the 21st century. For future production estimations, we analysed intensive long-term growth monitoring network plots that were established in

  1. Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao

    2017-04-01

    Atmospheric evaporative demand plays a pivotal role in global water and energy budgets and its change is very important for drought monitoring, irrigation scheduling and water resource management under a changing environment. Here, we first projected and attributed future changes of pan evaporation (E_pan), a measurable indictor for atmospheric evaporative demand, over China through a physical- based approach, namely PenPan model, forced with outputs form twelve state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. An equidistant quantile mapping method was also used to correct the biases in GCMs outputs to reduce uncertainty in〖 E〗_pan projection. The results indicated that the E_panwould increase during the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 relative to the baseline period 1971-2000 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which can mainly be attributed to the projected increase in air temperature and vapour pressure deficit over China. The percentage increase of E_pan is relatively larger in eastern China than that in western China, which is due to the spatially inconsistent increases in air temperature, net radiation, wind speed and vapour pressure deficit over China. The widely reported "pan evaporation paradox" was not well reproduced for the period 1961-2000 in the climate models, before or after bias correction, suggesting discrepancy between observed and modeled trends. With that caveat, we found that the pan evaporation has been projected to increase at a rate of 117 167 mm/yr per K (72 80 mm/yr per K) over China using the multiple GCMs under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario with increased greenhouse gases and the associated warming of the climate system. References: Liu W, and Sun F, 2017. Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models, Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0204.1

  2. PROJECT W-551 DETERMINATION DATA FOR EARLY LAW INTERIM PRETREATMENT SYSTEM SELECTION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    TEDESCHI AR

    2008-08-11

    This report provides the detailed assessment forms and data for selection of the solids separation and cesium separation technology for project W-551, Interim Pretreatment System. This project will provide early pretreated low activity waste feed to the Waste Treatment Plant to allow Waste Treatment Plan Low Activity Waste facility operation prior to construction completion of the Pretreatment and High Level Waste facilities. The candidate solids separations technologies are rotary microfiltration and crossflow filtration, and the candidate cesium separation technologies are fractional crystallization, caustic-side solvent extraction, and ion-exchange using spherical resorcinol-formaldehyde resin. This data was used to prepare a cross-cutting technology summary, reported in RPP-RPT-37740.

  3. PROJECT W-551 SUMMARY INFORMATION FOR EARLY LAW INTERIM PRETREATMENT SYSTEM SELECTION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    AR, TEDESCHI

    2008-08-11

    This report provides summary data for use by the decision board to assess and select the final technology for project W-551, Interim Pretreatment System. This project will provide early pretreated low activity waste feed to the Waste Treatment Plant to allow Waste Treatment Plan Low Activity Waste facility operation prior to construction completion of the Pretreatment and High Level Waste facilities. The candidate solids separations technologies are rotary microfiltration and crossflow filtration, and the candidate cesium separation technologies are fractional crystallization, caustic-side solvent extraction, and ion-exchange using spherical resorcinol-fonnaldebyde resin. This document provides a summary of comparative data against prior weighted criteria to support technology selection. Supporting details and background for this summary are documented in the separate report, RPP-RPT-37741.

  4. Whitehead Policy Symposium. The Human Genome Project: Science, law, and social change in the 21st century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nichols, E.K.

    2000-02-17

    Advances in the biomedical sciences, especially in human genomics, will dramatically influence law, medicine, public health, and many other sectors of our society in the decades ahead. The public already senses the revolutionary nature of genomic knowledge. In the US and Europe, we have seen widespread discussions about genetic discrimination in health insurance; privacy issues raised by the proliferation of DNA data banks; the challenge of interpreting new DNA diagnostic tests; changing definitions of what it means to be healthy; and the science and ethics of cloning animals and human beings. The primary goal of the Whitehead/ASLME Policy Symposium was to provide a bridge between the research community and professionals, who were just beginning to grasp the potential impact of new genetic technologies on their fields. The ''Human Genome Project: Science, Law, and Social Change in the 21st Century'' initially was designed as a forum for 300-500 physicians, lawyers, consumers, ethicists, and scientists to explore the impact of new genetic technologies and prepare for the challenges ahead.

  5. Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu

    2015-02-01

    Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P; Kunst, Anton E

    2011-04-01

    Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild disability is not. Using data from the GLOBE study (Gezondheid en Levensomstandigheden Bevolking Eindhoven en omstreken), the association of three levels of self-reported disabilities in activities of daily living with age and proximity to death was studied using logistic regression models. Regression estimates were used to estimate the number of life years with disability for life spans of 75 and 85 years. Odds ratios of 0.976 (not significant) for mild disability, 1.137 for moderate disability, and 1.231 for severe disability showed a stronger effect of proximity to death for more severe levels of disability. A 10-year increase of life span was estimated to result in a substantial expansion of mild disability (4.6 years) compared with a small expansion of moderate (0.7 years) and severe (0.9 years) disability. These findings support the theory of a dynamic equilibrium. Projections of the future burden of disability could be substantially improved by connecting to this theory and incorporating information on proximity to death. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Staff Working Papers of the Drug Law Evaluation Project. A Companion Volume to the Final Report of the Joint Committee of New York Drug Law Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978

    The papers in this volume were prepared as part of an evaluation of the effects of the strict 1973 New York State drug laws. The first paper explores the effects of the laws on heroin use. It analyzes the trends of various indicators of heroin use in New York State over a period of several years. In order to isolate movements unique to New York,…

  8. Where people die (1974--2030): past trends, future projections and implications for care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Barbara; Higginson, Irene J

    2008-01-01

    Ageing nations have growing needs for end of life care, but these have never been projected in detail. We analysed past trends in place of death (1974-2003) and projected likely trends to 2030 in England and Wales and from these need for care. Mortality trends and forecasts were obtained from official statistics. Future scenarios were modelled using recent five-year trends in age and gender specific home death proportions to estimate numbers of deaths by place to 2030, accounting for future changes in the age and gender distribution of deaths. Annual numbers of deaths fell by 8% from 1974 to 2003, but are expected to rise by 17% from 2012 to 2030. People will die increasingly at older ages, with the percentage of deaths among those aged 85 and expected to rise from 32% in 2003 to 44% in 2030. Home death proportions fell from 31% to 18% overall, and at an even higher rate for people aged 65 and over, women and noncancer deaths. If recent trends continue, numbers of home deaths could reduce by 42% and fewer than 1 in 10 will die at home in 2030. Annual numbers of institutional deaths (currently 440,936) will be 530,409 by 2030 (20% increase). In England and Wales home deaths have been decreasing. The projections underline the urgent need for planning care to accommodate a large increase of ageing and deaths. Either inpatient facilities must increase substantially, or many more people will need community end of life care from 2012 onwards.

  9. Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

    2013-12-01

    Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.

  10. INCORPORATING RESILIENCE INTO LAW AND POLICY: A case for preserving a natural resource legacy and promoting a sustainable future

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of sustainability has been widely embraced by society and in environmental law and policy as a measure to ensure a heritage of economic viability, social equity, and environmental stewardship. In a large number of statutes, Congress and many state legislatures have be...

  11. INCORPORATING RESILIENCE INTO LAW AND POLICY: A case for preserving a natural resource legacy and promoting a sustainable future

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of sustainability has been widely embraced by society and in environmental law and policy as a measure to ensure a heritage of economic viability, social equity, and environmental stewardship. In a large number of statutes, Congress and many state legislatures have be...

  12. Projecting future summer mortality due to ambient ozone concentration and temperature changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae Young; Lee, Soo Hyun; Hong, Sung-Chul; Kim, Ho

    2017-05-01

    Climate change is known to affect the human health both directly by increased heat stress and indirectly by altering environments, particularly by altering the rate of ambient ozone formation in the atmosphere. Thus, the risks of climate change may be underestimated if the effects of both future temperature and ambient ozone concentrations are not considered. This study presents a projection of future summer non-accidental mortality in seven major cities of South Korea during the 2020s (2016-2025) and 2050s (2046-2055) considering changes in temperature and ozone concentration, which were predicted by using the HadGEM3-RA model and Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System, respectively. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) were considered. The result shows that non-accidental summer mortality will increase by 0.5%, 0.0%, 0.4%, and 0.4% in the 2020s, 1.9%, 1.5%, 1.2%, and 4.4% in the 2050s due to temperature change compared to the baseline mortality during 2001-2010, under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the mortality will increase by 0.0%, 0.5%, 0.0%, and 0.5% in the 2020s, and 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.6% in the 2050s due to ozone concentration change. The projection result shows that the future summer morality in South Korea is increased due to changes in both temperature and ozone, and the magnitude of ozone-related increase is much smaller than that of temperature-related increase, especially in the 2050s.

  13. Reduction of uncertainty associated with future changes in Indian summer monsoon projected by climate models and assessment of monsoon teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajendran, Kavirajan; Surendran, Sajani; Kitoh, Akio; Varghese, Stella Jes

    2016-05-01

    Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled global climate model (CGCM) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations project clear future temperature increase but diverse changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) with substantial inter-model spread. Robust signals of projected changes are derived based on objective criteria and the physically consistent simulations with the highest reliability suggest future reduction in the frequency of light rainfall but increase in high to extreme rainfall. The role of equatorial Indian and Pacific Oceans on the projected changes in monsoon rainfall is investigated. The results of coupled model projections are also compared with the corresponding projections from high resolution AGCM time-slice, multi-physics and multi-forcing ensemble experiments.

  14. Managing hardwood-softwood mixtures for future forests in eastern North America: assessing suitability to projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    John M. Kabrick; Kenneth L. Clark; Anthony W. D' Amato; Daniel C. Dey; Laura S. Kenefic; Christel C. Kern; Benjamin O. Knapp; David A. MacLean; Patricia Raymond; Justin D. Waskiewicz

    2017-01-01

    Despite growing interest in management strategies for climate change adaptation, there are few methods for assessing the ability of stands to endure or adapt to projected future climates. We developed a means for assigning climate "Compatibility" and "Adaptability" scores to stands for assessing the suitability of tree species for projected climate...

  15. Future projections of Indian Ocean SSTs and its impact on monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelliyil Sabeerali, Cherumadanakadan; Ravindran, Ajayamohan

    2016-04-01

    Assessing the future projections of the Indian Ocean (IO) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) under the global warming scenario has a paramount societal impact considering its potential to alter the seasonal mean rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Observations show a pronounced warming in the western tropical IO compared to other ocean basins. Here, we explore the projections of boreal summer SSTs over the IO using the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5) simulations. Consistent with observations, most of the CMIP5 models show a faster warming rate over the western tropical IO compared to other ocean basins. Model simulations indicate a shift in the mean Walker circulation with an anomalous ascending motion over the central equatorial Pacific and an anomalous descending motion over the eastern tropical IO. As a consequence of this, a negative SST skewness is evident in the eastern tropical IO which leads to the increased frequency of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Mechanisms responsible for this pronounced western IO warming is studied by analyzing the changes in the mean thermocline depth and circulation features. The impact of these changes in IO SST on seasonal mean monsoon precipitation and circulation in a warming scenario and its associated mechanisms are also investigated.

  16. Changes in record-breaking temperature events in China and projections for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Hanqing; Liu, Chun; Lu, Yanyu; He, Dongyan; Tian, Hong

    2017-06-01

    As global warming intensifies, more record-breaking (RB) temperature events are reported in many places around the world where temperatures are higher than ever before http://cn.bing.com/dict/search?q=.&FORM=BDVSP6&mkt=zh-cn. The RB temperatures have caused severe impacts on ecosystems and human society. Here, we address changes in RB temperature events occurring over China in the past (1961-2014) as well as future projections (2006-2100) using observational data and the newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The number of RB events has a significant multi-decadal variability in China, and the intensity expresses a strong decrease from 1961 to 2014. However, more frequent RB events occurred in mid-eastern and northeastern China over last 30 years (1981-2010). Comparisons with observational data indicate multi-model ensemble (MME) simulations from the CMIP5 model perform well in simulating RB events for the historical run period (1961-2005). CMIP5 MME shows a relatively larger uncertainty for the change in intensity. From 2051 to 2100, fewer RB events are projected to occur in most parts of China according to RCP 2.6 scenarios. Over the longer period from 2006 to 2100, a remarkable increase is expected for the entire country according to RCP 8.5 scenarios and the maximum numbers of RB events increase by approximately 600 per year at end of twenty-first century.

  17. Energy: options for the future. Curriculum development project for high school teachers. Final report. [Packet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carroll, T.O.

    1978-04-01

    Recent state and regional energy crises demonstrate the delicate balance between energy systems, the environment, and the economy. Indeed, the interaction between these three elements of society is very complex. This project develops curriculum materials that would better provide students with an understanding and awareness of fundamental principles of energy supply, conversion processes, and utilization now and in the future. The project had two specific objectives: to transfer knowledge of energy systems, analysis techniques, and advanced technologies from the energy analyst community to the teacher participants; and to involve teachers in the preparation of modular case studies on energy issues for use within the classroom. These curriculum modules are intended to enhance the teacher's ability to provide energy-related education to students within his or her own academic setting. The project is organized as a three-week summer program, as noted in the flyer (Appendix A). Mornings are spent in seminars with energy and environmental specialists (their handout lecture notes are included as Appendix B); afternoons are devoted to high school curriculum development based on the seminar discussions. The curriculum development is limited to five areas: conservation, electricity demand scheduling, energy in the food system, new technologies (solar, wind, biomass), and environment. Appendix C consists of one-day lession plans in these areas.

  18. Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sillmann, J.; Kharin, V. V.; Zwiers, F. W.; Zhang, X.; Bronaugh, D.

    2013-03-01

    This study provides an overview of projected changes in climate extremes indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The temperature- and precipitation-based indices are computed with a consistent methodology for climate change simulations using different emission scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensembles. We analyze changes in the indices on global and regional scales over the 21st century relative to the reference period 1981-2000. In general, changes in indices based on daily minimum temperatures are found to be more pronounced than in indices based on daily maximum temperatures. Extreme precipitation generally increases faster than total wet-day precipitation. In regions, such as Australia, Central America, South Africa, and the Mediterranean, increases in consecutive dry days coincide with decreases in heavy precipitation days and maximum consecutive 5 day precipitation, which indicates future intensification of dry conditions. Particularly for the precipitation-based indices, there can be a wide disagreement about the sign of change between the models in some regions. Changes in temperature and precipitation indices are most pronounced under RCP8.5, with projected changes exceeding those discussed in previous studies based on SRES scenarios. The complete set of indices is made available via the ETCCDI indices archive to encourage further studies on the various aspects of changes in extremes.

  19. ACSEPT, a European project for a new step in the future demonstration of advanced fuel processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bourg, S. [CEA Marcoule 30 (France); Hill, C. [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif sur Yvette (France); Caravaca, C.; Espartero, A. [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain); Rhodes, C.; Taylor, R.; Harrison, M. [National Nuclear Laboratory (United Kingdom); Geist, A. [Fachinformationszentrum Karlsruhe - INE (Germany); Modolo, G. [Forschungszentrum Juelich - FZJ (Germany); Cassayre, L. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 91 - Orsay (France); Malmbeck, R. [Joint Research Centre (JRC) - Institute for Transuranium Elements (ITU) (Germany); De Angelis, G. [ENEA, Bologna (Italy); Bouvet, S. [Alcan, 92 - Courbevoie (France); Klaassen, F. [Nuclear Research and consultancy Group (NRG) (Netherlands); Ekber, C.

    2010-11-15

    Partitioning and transmutation, associated to a multi-recycling of all transuranics should play a key role in the development of sustainable nuclear energy. By joining together 34 partners coming from European universities, nuclear research laboratories and major industrial players, in a multi-disciplinary consortium, the FP7-Euratom-Fission collaborative project ACSEPT (Actinide recycling by separation and transmutation), provides the sound basis and future improvements for future demonstrations of fuel treatment in strong connection with fuel fabrication techniques. ACSEPT is organized into 3 technical domains: 1) selecting and optimizing mature aqueous separation processes (Diamex-Sanex, Ganex); 2) high temperature pyrochemical separation processes, and 3) carrying out engineering and systems studies on hydro- and pyro-chemical processes to prepare for future demonstration at a pilot level. After 2 years of work, 2 successful hot-tests were performed in hydrometallurgy, validating the Sanex and i-Sanex routes. Efforts are now devoted to the Ganex concept. Progress was also made in fuel dissolution and fuel re-fabrication. In pyrometallurgy, promising routes are almost demonstrated for the actinide recovery from aluminium. (A.C.)

  20. Future climate of the Bering and Chukchi Seas projected by global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Muyin; Overland, James E.; Stabeno, Phyllis

    2012-06-01

    Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) are a major tool used by scientists to study the complex interaction of processes that control climate and climate change. Projections from these models for the 21st century are the basis for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we use simulations from this set of climate models developed for the IPCC AR4 to provide a regional assessment of sea ice extent, sea surface temperature (SST), and surface air temperature (SAT) critical to future marine ecosystems in the Bering Sea and the Chukchi Sea. To reduce uncertainties associated with the model projections, a two-step model culling technique is applied based on comparison to 20th century observations. For the Chukchi Sea, data and model projections show major September sea ice extent reduction compared to the 20th century beginning now, with nearly sea ice free conditions before mid-century. Earlier sea ice loss continues throughout fall with major loss in December before the end of the 21st century. By 2050, for the eastern Bering Sea, spring sea ice extent (average of March to May) would be 58% of its recent values (1980-1999 mean). December will become increasingly sea ice free over the next 40 years. The Bering Sea will continue to show major interannual variability in sea ice extent and SST. The majority of models had no systematic bias in their 20th century simulated regional SAT, an indication that the models may provide considerable credibility for the Bering and the Chukchi Sea ecosystem projections. Largest air temperature increases are in fall (November to December) for both the Chukchi and the Bering Sea, with increases by 2050 of 3 °C for the Bering Sea and increases in excess of 5 °C for the Chukchi Sea.

  1. Effects of Episodic Future Thinking and Self-Projection on Children's Prospective Memory Performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anett Kretschmer-Trendowicz

    Full Text Available The present study is the first to investigate the benefits of episodic future thinking (EFT at encoding on prospective memory (PM in preschool (age: M = 66.34 months, SD = 3.28 and primary school children (age: M = 88.36 months, SD = 3.12. A second aim was to examine if self-projection influences the possible effects of EFT instructions. PM was assessed using a standard PM paradigm in children with a picture-naming task as the ongoing activity in which the PM task was embedded. Further, two first- and two second-order ToM tasks were administered as indicator of children's self-projection abilities. Forty-one preschoolers and 39 school-aged children were recruited. Half of the participants in each age group were instructed to use EFT as a strategy to encode the PM task, while the others received standard PM instructions. Results revealed a significant age effect, with school-aged children significantly outperforming preschoolers and a significant effect of encoding condition with overall better performance when receiving EFT instructions compared to the standard encoding condition. Even though the interaction between age group and encoding condition was not significant, planned comparisons revealed first evidence that compared to the younger age group, older children's PM benefitted more from EFT instructions during intention encoding. Moreover, results showed that although self-projection had a significant impact on PM performance, it did not influence the effects of EFT instructions. Overall, results indicate that children can use EFT encoding strategies to improve their PM performance once EFT abilities are sufficiently developed. Further, they provide first evidence that in addition to executive functions, which have already been shown to influence the development of PM across childhood, self-projection seems to be another key mechanism underlying this development.

  2. Multi-model ensemble projections of future extreme heat stress on rice across southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Liang; Cleverly, James; Wang, Bin; Jin, Ning; Mi, Chunrong; Liu, De Li; Yu, Qiang

    2017-08-01

    Extreme heat events have become more frequent and intense with climate warming, and these heatwaves are a threat to rice production in southern China. Projected changes in heat stress in rice provide an assessment of the potential impact on crop production and can direct measures for adaptation to climate change. In this study, we calculated heat stress indices using statistical scaling techniques, which can efficiently downscale output from general circulation models (GCMs). Data across the rice belt in southern China were obtained from 28 GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) with two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 for current emissions and RCP8.5 for increasing emissions). Multi-model ensemble projections over the historical period (1960-2010) reproduced the trend of observations in heat stress indices (root-mean-square error RMSE = 6.5 days) better than multi-model arithmetic mean (RMSE 8.9 days) and any individual GCM (RMSE 11.4 days). The frequency of heat stress events was projected to increase by 2061-2100 in both scenarios (up to 185 and 319% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively), especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. This increasing risk of exposure to heat stress above 30 °C during flowering and grain filling is predicted to impact rice production. The results of our study suggest the importance of specific adaption or mitigation strategies, such as selection of heat-tolerant cultivars and adjustment of planting date in a warmer future world.

  3. NEMO5: Achieving High-end Internode Communication for Performance Projection Beyond Moore's Law

    CERN Document Server

    Andrawis, Robert; Charles, James; Fang, Jianbin; Fonseca, Jim; He, Yu; Klimeck, Gerhard; Jiang, Zhengping; Kubis, Tillmann; Mejia, Daniel; Lemus, Daniel; Povolotskyi, Michael; Rubiano, Santiago Alonso Perez; Sarangapani, Prasad; Zeng, Lang

    2015-01-01

    Electronic performance predictions of modern nanotransistors require nonequilibrium Green's functions including incoherent scattering on phonons as well as inclusion of random alloy disorder and surface roughness effects. The solution of all these effects is numerically extremely expensive and has to be done on the world's largest supercomputers due to the large memory requirement and the high performance demands on the communication network between the compute nodes. In this work, it is shown that NEMO5 covers all required physical effects and their combination. Furthermore, it is also shown that NEMO5's implementation of the algorithm scales very well up to about 178176CPUs with a sustained performance of about 857 TFLOPS. Therefore, NEMO5 is ready to simulate future nanotransistors.

  4. The TRIDEC Project: Future-Saving FOSS GIS Applications for Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loewe, P.; Wächter, J.; Hammitzsch, M.

    2011-12-01

    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed over 240,000 people in 14 countries and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. This natural disaster coincided with an information catastrophy, as potentially life-saving early warning information existed, yet no means were available to deliver it to the communities under imminent threat. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for ongoing TEWS research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages. Since 2004, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All TRIDEC developments are based on Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components and industry standards where-ever possible. Tsunami Early Warning in TRIDEC is also based on mature system architecture models to ensure long-term usability and the flexibility to adapt to future generations of Tsunami sensors. All open source software produced by the project consortium are foreseen to be published on FOSSLAB, a publicly available

  5. Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

    2007-01-01

    -90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first......, and the detailed patterns of these changes are sensitive to the choice of the driving global model. In the case of precipitation, variation between models can exceed both internal variability and variability between different emissions scenarios....... regions of Holland, Germany and Denmark, in particular. These results are found to depend to different degrees on model formulation. While the responses of heat waves are robust to model formulation, the magnitudes of changes in precipitation and wind speed are sensitive to the choice of regional model...

  6. Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhiliang; McGuire, A. David

    2016-06-01

    This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 and to contribute to knowledge of the storage, fluxes, and balance of carbon and methane gas in ecosystems of Alaska. The carbon and methane variables were examined for major terrestrial ecosystems (uplands and wetlands) and inland aquatic ecosystems in Alaska in two time periods: baseline (from 1950 through 2009) and future (projections from 2010 through 2099). The assessment used measured and observed data and remote sensing, statistical methods, and simulation models. The national assessment, conducted using the methodology described in SIR 2010-5233, has been completed for the conterminous United States, with results provided in three separate regional reports (PP 1804, PP 1797, and PP 1897).

  7. Baseline and projected future carbon storage and carbon fluxes in ecosystems of Hawai‘i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selmants, Paul C.; Giardina, Christian P.; Jacobi, James D.; Zhu, Zhiliang

    2017-05-04

    This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 and to improve understanding of factors influencing carbon balance in ecosystems of Hawai‘i. Ecosystem carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and carbon balance were examined for major terrestrial ecosystems on the seven main Hawaiian islands in two time periods: baseline (from 2007 through 2012) and future (projections from 2012 through 2061). The assessment incorporated observed data, remote sensing, statistical methods, and simulation models. The national assessment has been completed for the conterminous United States, using methodology described in SIR 2010-5233, with results provided in three regional reports (PP 1804, PP 1797, and PP 1897), and for Alaska, with results provided in PP 1826.

  8. Some Demographic Changes in the Population of Montenegro with the Projection of Future Demographic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Rajović

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Dramatic demographic changes through which in recent decade’s passes Montenegrin society, the consequences arising from the new realities require a serious socio-political engagement. Process of population aging, that began the seventies of the 20th century, represents a significant problem. The process of demographic change was accompanied by an internal migration to major urban centers, primarily Podgorica and Montenegrin coast, leading to emptying the interior of Montenegro. Unfortunately, this development of the population structure of Montenegro opens a series of questions and challenges that would the creators of the future you should put high on the scale of its priorities. In this text we will point out on change of total number of citizens of Montenegro according to the base and chain indexes of 1921-2011 and population in Montenegro 2016–2091 (cohort model projections.

  9. No. 614 law project relative to the energy sector; No. 614 projet de Loi relatif au secteur de l'energie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-11-15

    This law project concerns the market opening and the free choice of the consumers, the dispositions relative to the electricity and gas distribution and the dispositions relative to the Gaz De France capital and the government control. (A.L.B.)

  10. Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

    2017-02-01

    Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

  11. Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

    2017-08-01

    Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

  12. Can the government ban organ sale? Recent court challenges and the future of US law on selling human organs and other tissue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, I G

    2012-08-01

    On December 1, 2011, in Flynn v. Holder, a panel of the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit upheld the National Organ Transplant Act of 1984 (NOTA) from a constitutional challenge, but interpreted the act such that its prohibition on sale did not encompass "peripheral blood stem cells" obtained through apheresis. Rehearing of the case was denied on March 27, 2012. The Obama administration must now decide whether to pursue its challenge in the US Supreme Court. This article explains the litigation, its significance and uses it as a backdrop against which to understand the history and future trajectory of the laws governing selling organs and other human tissue.

  13. The First Billion Years project: constraining the dust attenuation law of star-forming galaxies at z ≃ 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullen, F.; McLure, R. J.; Khochfar, S.; Dunlop, J. S.; Dalla Vecchia, C.

    2017-09-01

    We present the results of a study investigating the dust attenuation law at z ≃ 5, based on synthetic spectral energy distributions (SEDs) calculated for a sample of N = 498 galaxies drawn from the First Billion Years (FiBY) simulation project. The simulated galaxies at z ≃ 5, which have M1500 ≤ -18.0 and 7.5 ≤ log(M/M}_{⊙}) ≤ 10.2, display a mass-dependent α-enhancement, with a median value of [α /{Fe}]_{z=5} ˜eq 4 × [α /{Fe}]_{Z_{⊙}}. The median Fe/H ratio of the simulated galaxies is 0.14 ± 0.05 which produces steep intrinsic ultraviolet (UV) continuum slopes; 〈βi〉 = -2.4 ± 0.05. Using a set of simple dust attenuation models, in which the wavelength-dependent attenuation is assumed to be of the form A(λ) ∝ λn, we explore the parameter values which best reproduce the observed z = 5 luminosity function (LF) and colour-magnitude relation (CMR). We find that a simple model in which the absolute UV attenuation is a linearly increasing function of log stellar mass (A1500 = 0.5 × log(M/M⊙) - 3.3), and the dust attenuation slope (n) is within the range -0.7 ≤ n ≤ -0.3, can successfully reproduce the LF and CMR over a wide range of stellar population synthesis model assumptions, including the effects of massive binaries. This range of attenuation curves is consistent with a power-law fit to the Calzetti attenuation law in the UV (n = -0.55). In contrast, curves as steep as the Small Magellanic Cloud extinction curve (n = -1.24) are formally ruled out. Finally, we show that our models are consistent with recent 1.3 mm Atacama Large Millimeter Array observations of the Hubble Ultra Deep Field, and predict the form of the z ≃ 5 infrared excess (IRX)-β relation.

  14. Understanding future projected changes and trends in extreme precipitation and streamflow events in ten Polish catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meresa, Hadush; Romanowicz, Renata; Napiorkoski, Jaroslaw

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study is to investigate methods of trend detection in hydro-climatic high and low indices using novel and conventional tools, for future climate projections in the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. The climate meteorological projections are obtained from regional climate models or/and global circulation models forced with IPCC SRES A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The study area includes ten catchments in Poland. The catchments have diverse hydro-climatic conditions. They are covered mostly by forest and are semi-natural. The flood regime of all the catchments is driven either by rainfall and/or snow-melt. Streamflow projections are provided by running the HBV hydrological model, coupled with climate models for the catchments. The trends are analyzed using a conventional Modified Mann Kendall statistical approach, a time frequency approach based on wavelet discrete transform (DWT) and the Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) method. We address the problems of auto-correlation, seasonality and inter-annual variability of the derived indices. A Modified Mann Kendall (MMK) method is applied to cope with the autocorrelation of the time series. The DHR method is based on the unobserved component approach. Together with estimates of the components, the uncertainty of the estimates is also calculated. The results of the DHR analysis (trend) are compared with the calculated MMK and DWT trends. Among other indices we study the temporal patterns of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), as well as Maximum Annual Flows and Minimum Annual Flows. The results indicate that changes in the trends of the projected indices are more conservative when DHR methods are applied than conventional trend techniques. The wavelet-based approach is the most subjective and gives the least conservative trend estimates. Trends indicate an increase in the amount of precipitation, followed by

  15. The climate of the Eastern Seaboard of Australia: A challenging entity now and for future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timbal, Bertrand

    2010-08-01

    The Eastern SeaBoard (ESB) of Australia has long been recognised as a separate climate entity. Using the latest gridded observations from the Bureau of Meteorology, a definition of the spatial extent of the ESB is proposed. It appears that, while this area has recorded below average rainfall over the last 12 years, the ongoing deficiency is not record breaking in historic terms. This contrasts with record breaking droughts across large parts of inland, eastern Australia. The lesser severity of ongoing rainfall deficiencies in the ESB, compared to the rest of the region, is linked to the different impact of observed changes in regional surface pressure and, in particular, changes in the position of the sub-tropical ridge. It is also observed that while tropical modes of variability in the Pacific and Indian oceans are known to influence the climate of eastern Australia, that influence appears very weak and not statistically significant across the ESB. Finally, some issues relevant to future rainfall projections for the ESB are discussed. It is argued that providing reliable climate projections across this climatic region is a difficult challenge.

  16. Future Arctic marine access: analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Rogers

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980–2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice loss has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January–March extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead–lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1–3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities.

  17. submitter Status of the Demonstrator Magnets for the EuCARD-2 Future Magnets Project

    CERN Document Server

    Kirby, G; Badel, A; Bajko, M; Ballarino, A; Bottura, L; Dhalle, M; Durante, M; Fazilleau, P; Fleiter, J; Goldacker, W; Haro, E; Himbele, J; Kario, A; Langeslag, S; Lorin, C; Murtzomaki, J; van Nugteren, J; de Rijk, G; Salmi, T; Senatore, C; Stenvall, A; Tixador, P; Usoskin, A; Volpini, G; Yang, Y; Zangenberg, N

    2016-01-01

    EuCARD-2 is a project partly supported by FP7 European Commission aiming at exploring accelerator magnet technology for 20-T dipole operating field. The EuCARD-2 collaboration is liaising with similar programs for high-field magnets in the U.S. and Japan. EuCARD-2 focuses, through the work package 10 “future magnets,” on the development of a 10-kA-class superconducting high-current-density cable suitable for accelerator magnets, for a 5-T stand-alone dipole of 40-mm bore and about 1-m length. After stand-alone testing, the magnet will be inserted in a large bore background dipole, 10-18 T. This paper reports on the design and development of models, which are called Feather0, wound with REBCO Roebel cable. Based on aligned block design to take advantage of the anisotropy of the REBCO tapes, Feather0 is a precursor of Feather2, which should reach the project goals in 2016. Feather0 is planned to be tested both in stand alone and as an insert mounted in the CERN Fresca facility providing 10-T background fiel...

  18. Projected near-future levels of temperature and pCO2 reduce coral fertilization success.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Albright

    Full Text Available Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2 are projected to contribute to a 1.1-6.4°C rise in global average surface temperatures and a 0.14-0.35 reduction in the average pH of the global surface ocean by 2100. If realized, these changes are expected to have negative consequences for reef-building corals including increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching and reduced rates of calcification and reef accretion. Much less is known regarding the independent and combined effects of temperature and pCO2 on critical early life history processes such as fertilization. Here we show that increases in temperature (+3°C and pCO2 (+400 µatm projected for this century negatively impact fertilization success of a common Indo-Pacific coral species, Acropora tenuis. While maximum fertilization did not differ among treatments, the sperm concentration required to obtain 50% of maximum fertilization increased 6- to 8- fold with the addition of a single factor (temperature or CO2 and nearly 50- fold when both factors interact. Our results indicate that near-future changes in temperature and pCO2 narrow the range of sperm concentrations that are capable of yielding high fertilization success in A. tenuis. Increased sperm limitation, in conjunction with adult population decline, may have severe consequences for coral reproductive success. Impaired sexual reproduction will further challenge corals by inhibiting population recovery and adaptation potential.

  19. Chicago Clean Air, Clean Water Project: Environmental Monitoring for a Healthy, Sustainable Urban Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none, none; Tuchman, Nancy [Institute of Environmental Sustainability (IES), Chicago, IL (United States)

    2015-11-11

    The U.S. Department of Energy awarded Loyola University Chicago and the Institute of Environmental Sustainability (IES) $486,000.00 for the proposal entitled “Chicago clean air, clean water project: Environmental monitoring for a healthy, sustainable urban future.” The project supported the purchase of analytical instruments for the development of an environmental analytical laboratory. The analytical laboratory is designed to support the testing of field water and soil samples for nutrients, industrial pollutants, heavy metals, and agricultural toxins, with special emphasis on testing Chicago regional soils and water affected by coal-based industry. Since the award was made in 2010, the IES has been launched (fall 2013), and the IES acquired a new state-of-the-art research and education facility on Loyola University Chicago’s Lakeshore campus. Two labs were included in the research and education facility. The second floor lab is the Ecology Laboratory where lab experiments and analyses are conducted on soil, plant, and water samples. The third floor lab is the Environmental Toxicology Lab where lab experiments on environmental toxins are conducted, as well as analytical tests conducted on water, soil, and plants. On the south end of the Environmental Toxicology Lab is the analytical instrumentation collection purchased from the present DOE grant, which is overseen by a full time Analytical Chemist (hired January 2016), who maintains the instruments, conducts analyses on samples, and helps to train faculty and undergraduate and graduate student researchers.

  20. Restructuring of the Jordanian Utility Sector and its Associated Ghg Emissions: a Future Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouad, Rami Hikmat; Al-Ghandoor, Ahmed; Al-Khateeb, Mohammad; Bata, Hamada

    2008-10-01

    As a small, non-oil producing, Middle Eastern country of a young and growing population and rapid urbanization, Jordan, like many countries all over the world, was and is still facing the problem of meeting the rapidly increasing demand of electricity. The main objective of this study is to review many current aspects of the Jordanian electricity sector, including electricity generation, electricity consumption, energy related emissions, and future possibilities, based on time series forecasting, through the term of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) arrangement under the Kyoto Protocol, in which the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan had signed lately, which allows industrialized countries with a greenhouse gas reduction commitment to invest in projects that reduce emissions in developing countries as an alternative to more expensive emission reductions in their own countries. Several scenarios are proposed in this study, based on projected electricity consumption data until year 2028. Without attempting to replace the currently existing fossil-fuel based power plant technologies in Jordan by clean ones, electricity consumption and associated GHG emissions are predicted to rise by 138% by year 2028; however, if new clean technologies are adopted gradually over the same period, electricity consumption as well as GHG emissions will ascend at a lower rate.

  1. Future Arctic marine access: analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Rogers

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally-based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980–2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice los has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January–March extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead-lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants, and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1–3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities.

  2. Status and Future Perspectives of the HIE-Isolde Project at CERN

    CERN Document Server

    Kadi, Y; Blumenfeld, Y; Calatroni, S; Catherall, R; Fraser, M A; Goddard, B; Parchet, D; Siesling, E; Venturini Delsolaro, W; Voulot, D; Williams, L R

    2012-01-01

    The High Intensity and Energy (HIE)-ISOLDE project aims at several important upgrades of the present ISOLDE radioactive beam facility at CERN. The main focus lies in the energy upgrade of the post-accelerated radionuclide beams from 3 MeV/u up to 10 MeV/u through the addition of superconducting cavities. This will open the possibility of many new types of experiments including transfer reactions throughout the nuclear chart. The first stage of this upgrade involves the design, construction, installation and commissioning of two high-β cryomodules downstream of REX-ISOLDE, the existing post-accelerator. Each cryomodule houses five high-β superconducting cavities and one superconducting solenoid. Prototypes of the Nb-sputtered Quarter Wave Resonators (QWRs) cavities for the new superconducting linear accelerator have been manufactured and are undergoing RF cold tests. The project also includes a design study of improved production targets to accommodate to the future increase of proton intensity delivered by ...

  3. Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Natalya; Pollard, David; Holland, David

    2015-11-10

    The stability of marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in a warming climate has been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise. Sea-level fall near the grounding line of a retreating marine ice sheet has a stabilizing influence on the ice sheets, and previous studies have established the importance of this feedback on ice age AIS evolution. Here we use a coupled ice sheet-sea-level model to investigate the impact of the feedback mechanism on future AIS retreat over centennial and millennial timescales for a range of emission scenarios. We show that the combination of bedrock uplift and sea-surface drop associated with ice-sheet retreat significantly reduces AIS mass loss relative to a simulation without these effects included. Sensitivity analyses show that the stabilization tends to be greatest for lower emission scenarios and Earth models characterized by a thin elastic lithosphere and low-viscosity upper mantle, as is the case for West Antarctica.

  4. Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet energy balance driving the surface melt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Franco

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, simulations at 25 km resolution are performed over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, using the regional climate model MAR forced by four RCP scenarios from three CMIP5 global circulation models (GCMs, in order to investigate the projected changes of the surface energy balance (SEB components driving the surface melt. Analysis of 2000–2100 melt anomalies compared to melt results over 1980–1999 reveals an exponential relationship of the GrIS surface melt rate simulated by MAR to the near-surface air temperature (TAS anomalies, mainly due to the surface albedo positive feedback associated with the extension of bare ice areas in summer. On the GrIS margins, the future melt anomalies are preferentially driven by stronger sensible heat fluxes, induced by enhanced warm air advection over the ice sheet. Over the central dry snow zone, the surface albedo positive feedback induced by the increase in summer melt exceeds the negative feedback of heavier snowfall for TAS anomalies higher than 4 °C. In addition to the incoming longwave flux increase associated with the atmosphere warming, GCM-forced MAR simulations project an increase of the cloud cover decreasing the ratio of the incoming shortwave versus longwave radiation and dampening the albedo feedback. However, it should be noted that this trend in the cloud cover is contrary to that simulated by ERA-Interim–forced MAR for recent climate conditions, where the observed melt increase since the 1990s seems mainly to be a consequence of more anticyclonic atmospheric conditions. Finally, no significant change is projected in the length of the melt season, which highlights the importance of solar radiation absorbed by the ice sheet surface in the melt SEB.

  5. Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur; Beecham, Simon; Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir

    2016-08-01

    In this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate extreme rainfall indices and annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) when downscaled daily rainfall from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCM) (four GCMs and two scenarios) output datasets and then their changes were estimated for the future period 2041-2060. The model was able to reproduce the monthly variations in the extreme rainfall indices reasonably well when forced by the NCEP reanalysis datasets. Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping (FAQM) was used to remove bias in the simulated daily rainfall when forced by CMIP5 GCMs, which reduced the discrepancy between observed and simulated extreme rainfall indices. Although the observed AMDR were within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated AMDR, the model consistently under-predicted the inter-annual variability of AMDR. A non-stationary model was developed using the generalized linear model for local, shape and scale to estimate the AMDR with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. The study shows that in general, AMDR is likely to decrease in the future. The Onkaparinga catchment will also experience drier conditions due to an increase in consecutive dry days coinciding with decreases in heavy (>long term 90th percentile) rainfall days, empirical 90th quantile of rainfall and maximum 5-day consecutive total rainfall for the future period (2041-2060) compared to the base period (1961-2000).

  6. Future trends of snowfall days in northern Spain from ENSEMBLES regional climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pons, M. R.; Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

    2016-06-01

    In a previous study Pons et al. (Clim Res 54(3):197-207, 2010. doi: 10.3354/cr01117g) reported a significant decreasing trend of snowfall occurrence in the Northern Iberian Peninsula since the mid 70s. The study was based on observations of annual snowfall frequency (measured as the annual number of snowfall days NSD) from a network of 33 stations ranging from 60 to 1350 m. In the present work we analyze the skill of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to reproduce this trend for the period 1961-2000 (using both reanalysis- and historical GCM-driven boundary conditions) and the trend and the associated uncertainty of the regional future projections obtained under the A1B scenario for the first half of the twenty-first century. In particular, we consider the regional simulation dataset from the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project, consisting of thirteen state-of-the-art RCMs run at 25 km resolution over Europe. While ERA40 severely underestimates both the mean NSD and its observed trend (-2.2 days/decade), the corresponding RCM simulations driven by the reanalysis appropriately capture the interannual variability and trends of the observed NSD (trends ranging from -3.4 to -0.7, -2.1 days/decade for the ensemble mean). The results driven by the GCM historical runs are quite variable, with trends ranging from -8.5 to 0.2 days/decade (-1.5 days/decade for the ensemble mean), and the greatest uncertainty by far being associated with the particular GCM used. Finally, the trends for the future 2011-2050 A1B runs are more consistent and significant, ranging in this case from -3.7 to -0.5 days/decade (-2.0 days/decade for the ensemble mean), indicating a future significant decreasing trend. These trends are mainly determined by the increasing temperatures, as indicated by the interannual correlation between temperature and NSD (-0.63 in the observations), which is preserved in both ERA40- and GCM-driven simulations.

  7. Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G.; Stevenson, D. S.; Krol, M. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Lamarque, J.-F.; PéTron, G.; Dentener, F. J.; Ellingsen, K.; Schultz, M. G.; Wild, O.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C. S.; Bergmann, D. J.; Bey, I.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Collins, W. J.; Derwent, R. G.; Doherty, R. M.; Drevet, J.; Eskes, H. J.; Fiore, A. M.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D. A.; Horowitz, L. W.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Lawrence, M. G.; Montanaro, V.; Müller, J.-F.; Pitari, G.; Prather, M. J.; Pyle, J. A.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Sanderson, M. G.; Savage, N. H.; Strahan, S. E.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Unger, N.; van Noije, T. P. C.; Zeng, G.

    2006-10-01

    We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show large underestimates of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical CO, while typically performing reasonably well elsewhere. The results suggest that year-round emissions, probably from fossil fuel burning in east Asia and seasonal biomass burning emissions in south-central Africa, are greatly underestimated in current inventories such as IIASA and EDGAR3.2. Variability among models is large, likely resulting primarily from intermodel differences in representations and emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and in hydrologic cycles, which affect OH and soluble hydrocarbon intermediates. Global mean projections of the 2030 CO response to emissions changes are quite robust. Global mean midtropospheric (500 hPa) CO increases by 12.6 ± 3.5 ppbv (16%) for the high-emissions (A2) scenario, by 1.7 ± 1.8 ppbv (2%) for the midrange (CLE) scenario, and decreases by 8.1 ± 2.3 ppbv (11%) for the low-emissions (MFR) scenario. Projected 2030 climate changes decrease global 500 hPa CO by 1.4 ± 1.4 ppbv. Local changes can be much larger. In response to climate change, substantial effects are seen in the tropics, but intermodel variability is quite large. The regional CO responses to emissions changes are robust across models, however. These range from decreases of 10-20 ppbv over much of the industrialized NH for the CLE scenario to CO increases worldwide and year-round under A2, with the largest changes over central Africa (20-30 ppbv), southern Brazil (20-35 ppbv) and south and east Asia (30-70 ppbv). The trajectory of future emissions thus has the potential to profoundly affect air quality over most of the world's populated areas.

  8. Investigating the little rip and other future singularities of the universe, and validity of the second law of thermodynamics in F(R theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Aghaei Abchouyeh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The future singularities are possible in a universe that is described by F(R theory. In previous studies the occurrence of the singularities in F(R theory have been considered by using a special function for the Hubble parameter and calculating the F(R function for each of the singularities. Using the specified Hubble parameter causes some difficulties in the study of the second law of thermodynamics. In this paper by using the scale factor, the behavior of F(R function near each type of the singularities is considered. We can check the validity of the second law of thermodynamics near the singularities. At first we study the Little Rip and then the other types of singularities are considered. The results show that the second law of thermodynamics is satisfied near the singularity type (I with some special conditions and is violated with some other conditions. it is satisfied near the Little Rip, type (II, (III and (IV singularities

  9. Revealing, Reducing, and Representing Uncertainties in New Hydrologic Projections for Climate-changed Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Jeffrey; Clark, Martyn; Gutmann, Ethan; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Rasmussen, Roy

    2016-04-01

    The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for multi-purpose water resource operations on most of the major river systems in the U.S. for more than 200 years. In that time, the USACE projects and programs making up those operations have proved mostly robust against the range of natural climate variability encountered over their operating life spans. However, in some watersheds and for some variables, climate change now is known to be shifting the hydroclimatic baseline around which that natural variability occurs and changing the range of that variability as well. This makes historical stationarity an inappropriate basis for assessing continued project operations under climate-changed futures. That means new hydroclimatic projections are required at multiple scales to inform decisions about specific threats and impacts, and for possible adaptation responses to limit water-resource vulnerabilities and enhance operational resilience. However, projections of possible future hydroclimatologies have myriad complex uncertainties that require explicit guidance for interpreting and using them to inform those decisions about climate vulnerabilities and resilience. Moreover, many of these uncertainties overlap and interact. Recent work, for example, has shown the importance of assessing the uncertainties from multiple sources including: global model structure [Meehl et al., 2005; Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013]; internal climate variability [Deser et al., 2012; Kay et al., 2014]; climate downscaling methods [Gutmann et al., 2012; Mearns et al., 2013]; and hydrologic models [Addor et al., 2014; Vano et al., 2014; Mendoza et al., 2015]. Revealing, reducing, and representing these uncertainties is essential for defining the plausible quantitative climate change narratives required to inform water-resource decision-making. And to be useful, such quantitative narratives, or storylines, of climate change threats and hydrologic impacts must sample

  10. Future patient demand for shoulder arthroplasty by younger patients: national projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padegimas, Eric M; Maltenfort, Mitchell; Lazarus, Mark D; Ramsey, Matthew L; Williams, Gerald R; Namdari, Surena

    2015-06-01

    The outcomes of shoulder arthroplasties in younger patients (55 years or younger) are not as reliable compared with those of the general population. Greater risk of revision and higher complication rates in younger patients present direct costs to the healthcare system and indirect costs to the patient in terms of quality of life. Previous studies have suggested an increased demand for shoulder arthroplasties overall, but to our knowledge, the demand in younger patients has not been explored. We asked: (1) What was the demand for shoulder arthroplasties between 2002 and 2011 in the United States for all patients and a specific subpopulation of patients who were 55 years old or younger? (2) How is the demand for shoulder arthroplasties in younger patients projected to change through 2030? (3) How is procedural demand projected to change in younger patients through 2030, and specifically, what can we anticipate in terms of hemiarthroplasty volume compared with that of total shoulder arthroplasty? We used the National Inpatient Sample database to identify primary shoulder arthroplasties performed between 2002 and 2011. A Poisson regression model was developed using the National Inpatient Sample data and United States Census Bureau projections on future population changes to predict estimated national demand for total shoulder arthroplasties and hemiarthroplasties in all patients and in the subpopulation 55 years old or younger. This model was projected until 2030, with associated 95% CIs. We then specifically analyzed the projected demand of hemiarthroplasties and compared this with demand for all arthroplasty procedures in the younger patient population. Demand for shoulder arthroplasties in patients 55 years or younger is increasing at a rate of 8.2% per year (95% CI, 7.06%-9.35%), compared with a growth rate of 12.1% (95% CI, 8.35%-16.02%) per year for patients older than 55 years. In 2002, 15.9% (3587 of 22,617 captured in the National Inpatient Sample) of

  11. Future flood risk in Europe under high-end climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc; Bianchi, Alessandra; Burek, Peter; Dottori, Francesco; Forzieri, Giovanni; Roudier, Philippe

    2015-04-01

    a peak over threshold approach; 3) a new methodology is proposed to bias correct the climate projections used, which is performed in the evaluation of the flood risk and therefore does not modify atmospheric variables nor the energy balance; 4) a coherent estimate of vulnerability information is included. Results indicate that the change in frequency of discharge extremes is likely to have a larger impact on the overall flood hazard as compared to the change in their magnitude. This underlines some limitations embedded in the commonly used block-maxima analysis on annual peak discharges. On a continental average, flood peaks with return period above 100 years are projected to double in frequency within the next few decades. This is reflected into an average 200 percent climate-related increase in the future expected damage and population affected by the end of the century in Europe.

  12. Partitioning internal variability and model uncertainty components in a multireplicate multimodel ensemble of hydrometeorological future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hingray, Benoit; Saïd, Mériem; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Gailhlard, Joël; Mezghani, Abdelkader

    2014-05-01

    be experienced for any given future period is therefore very high. For both discharge and precipitation, even the sign of future realizations is uncertain at a 90% confidence level. These findings have important implications. As for GCM uncertainty, SDM uncertainty cannot be neglected. The same applies for both components of internal variability. Climate change impact studies based on single SDM realizations are likely to be no more relevant than those based on single GCM runs (or small ensembles). When they are intended to provide information for climate change adaptation, they may lead to poor decisions. In the present case, it would be better to adapt to IV of precipitation than to the precipitation decrease obtained from the mean climate change response of simulation chains. Hingray, B., Hendrickx, F., Bourqui M., Creutin, J.D., François, B., Gailhard, J., Lafaysse, M., Lemoine, N., Mathevet, T., Mezghani, A., Monteil, C., RIWER2030:Climats Régionaux et Incertitudes, Ressource en Eau et Gestion de 1860 à 2100.Projet ANR VMCS 2009-2012. Rapport Final. LTHE,EDF,Grenoble. Hingray, B., Saïd, M. (in revision). Partitioning internal variability and model uncertainty components in a multimodel multireplicate ensemble of climate projections. J.Climate Lafaysse, M., Hingray, B., Gailhard, J., Mezghani, A., Terray, L. (in revision). Internal variability and model uncertainty components in a multireplicate multimodel ensemble of hydrometeorological projections. Wat. Resour. Res.

  13. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

    2016-01-15

    We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales.

  14. Law project on the gas utility modernization and gas industries development. Law project synthesis on the gas utility modernization and gas industries development; Projet de loi relatif a la modernisation du service public du gaz naturel et au developpement des entreprises gazieres.Synthese du projet de loi sur la modernisation du service public du gaz et le developpement des entreprises gazieres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-05-01

    The french government would like to develop a law concerning the gas utility modernization and gas industries development, which completes the today system, more particularly, the law of 1946. This project specifies and comforts the gas utility, it gives to the energy policy tools adapted to the new european context. It helps the natural gas industry to become more competitive. The method chosen by the government is presented and discussed in these three documents. (A.L.B.)

  15. Climate change adaptation accounting for huge uncertainties in future projections - the case of urban drainage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2015-04-01

    Hydrological design parameters, which are currently used in the guidelines for the design of urban drainage systems (Willems et al., 2013) have been revised, taking the Flanders region of Belgium as case study. The revision involved extrapolation of the design rainfall statistics, taking into account the current knowledge on future climate change trends till 2100. Uncertainties in these trend projections have been assessed after statistically analysing and downscaling by a quantile perturbation tool based on a broad ensemble set of climate model simulation results (44 regional + 69 global control-scenario climate model run combinations for different greenhouse gas scenarios). The impact results of the climate scenarios were investigated as changes to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Thereafter, the climate scenarios and related changes in rainfall statistics were transferred to changes in flood frequencies of sewer systems and overflow frequencies of storage facilities. This has been done based on conceptual urban drainage models. Also the change in storage capacity required to exceed a given overflow return period, has been calculated for a range of return periods and infiltration or throughflow rates. These results were used on the basis of the revision of the hydraulic design rules of urban drainage systems. One of the major challenges while formulating these policy guidelines was the consideration of the huge uncertainties in the future climate change projections and impact assessments; see also the difficulties and pitfalls reported by the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage - Working group on urban rainfall (Willems et al., 2012). We made use of the risk concept, and found it a very useful approach to deal with the high uncertainties. It involves an impact study of the different climate projections, or - for practical reasons - a reduced set of climate scenarios tailored for the specific type of impact considered (urban floods in our

  16. Yemen's Unprecedented Humanitarian Crisis: Implications for International Humanitarian Law, the Geneva Convention, and the Future of Global Health Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripoll Gallardo, Alba; Burkle, Frederick M; Ragazzoni, Luca; Della Corte, Francesco

    2016-10-01

    The current humanitarian crisis in Yemen is unprecedented in many ways. The Yemeni War tragedy is symptomatic of gross failures to recognize, by combatants, existing humanitarian law and the Geneva Convention that have become the new norm in unconventional armed conflicts and are increasingly replicated in Africa, Afghanistan, and other areas of the Middle East with dire consequences on aid workers and the noncombatant population. The health and humanitarian professions must take collective responsibility in calling for all belligerent parties to cease the massacre and commit to guaranteed medical assistance, humanitarian aid, and the free flow of information and respect for the humanitarian principles that protect the neutrality and impartiality of the humanitarian workforce. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;page 1 of 3).

  17. Taking stock of project value creation: A structured literature review with future directions for research and practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Markus; Svejvig, Per

    2016-01-01

    developing value-centric view has been the subject of many publications in recent years. We contribute to research on project value creation through four directions for future research: rejuvenating value management through combining value, benefits, and costs; supplementing value creation with value capture......This paper aims to take stock of what we know about project value creation and to present future directions for research and practice. We performed an explorative and unstructured literature review, which was subsequently paired with a structured literature review. We join several research areas...

  18. The implications of climate change scenario selection for future streamflow projection in the Upper Colorado River Basin

    OpenAIRE

    B. L. Harding; A. W. Wood; Prairie, J. R.

    2012-01-01

    The impact of projected 21st century climate conditions on streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin was estimated using a multi-model ensemble approach wherein the downscaled outputs of 112 future climate projections from 16 global climate models (GCMs) were used to drive a macroscale hydrology model. By the middle of the century, the impacts on streamflow range, over the entire ensemble, from a decrease of approximately 30% to an increase of approximately the same magnitude. Although pri...

  19. A projection of future changes in summer precipitation and monsoon in East Asia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The future potential changes in precipitation and monsoon circulation in the summer in East Asia are projected using the latest generation of coupled climate models under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario (a medium emission scenario).The multi-model ensemble means show that during the period of 2010-2099,the summer precipitation in East Asia will increase and experience a prominent change around the 2040s,with a small increase (~1%) before the end of the 2040s and a large increase (~9%) afterward.This kind of two-stage evolution characteristic of precipitation change can be seen most clearly in North China,and then in South China and in the mid and lower Yangtze River Valley.In 2010-2099,the projected precipitation pattern will be dominated by a pattern of "wet East China" that explains 33.6% of EOF total variance.The corresponded time coefficient will markedly increase after the 2040s,indicating a great contribution from this mode to the enhanced precipitation across all East China.Other precipitation patterns that prevail in the current climate only contribute a small proportion to the total variance,with no prominent liner trend in the future.By the late 21st century,the monsoon circulation will be stronger in East Asia.At low level,this is due to the intensification of southwesterly airflow north of the anticyclone over the western Pacific and the SCS,and at high level,it is caused by the increased northeasterly airflow east of the anticyclone over South Asia.The enhanced monsoon circulation will also experience a two-stage evolution in 2010-2099,with a prominent increase (by ~0.6 m s-1) after the 2040s.The atmospheric water vapor content over East Asia will greatly increase (by ~9%) at the end of 21st century.The water vapor transported northward into East China will be intensified and display a prominent increase around the 2040s similar to other examined variables.These indicate

  20. Pore Water Arsenic Dynamics in Rice Paddies Under Projected Future Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plaganas, M.; Wang, T.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.

    2016-12-01

    Rice is one of the staple crops in the world, with 50% of the global population eating rice daily. Many rice-producing regions of the world are irrigated with groundwater contaminated with arsenic (As), and in particular South and Southeast Asia, where geogenic As is leached into the groundwater. Use of groundwater pervasively high in As leads to subsequent accumulation in paddy soils. Arsenic, a toxic metalloid, also decreases rice productivity and further jeopardizes food security. Hence, rice agriculture is concerned with its productivity in a climate change impacted future and the particular impacts of arsenic on yields. However, past studies do not address the prevalence of As in paddy soils or its fate in the rhizosphere and ultimate impact on the plant. The objective of our study was to determine changes in pore water As dynamics in the rhizosphere of rice plants grown on As-contaminated paddy soil under climate conditions projected for the end of the century. In order to address this objective, we designed greenhouse chambers with today's climate and projected climate conditions for the year 2100, specifically 5°C increase in temperature and doubled concentration of atmospheric CO2. We hypothesize that the effects of climate change with these conditions will increase the mobility of As in the rhizosphere, and thus, decrease rice growth in As-bearing paddies more than, so far, expected. We examined pore water geochemistry including pH and As concentrations, and correlate that to the height of the plants. Furthermore, the dynamics of other elements in the pore water such as carbon, iron, sulfur, manganese, and silica are further evaluated for their effects on rice growth. Arsenic will have an impact on rice production and conditions induced by future climatic conditions need to be considered for food security. Considering that climate change will decrease the global agricultural output, we should urgently consider adapting our agricultural practices to aid

  1. The clinical endocrinology workforce: current status and future projections of supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigersky, Robert A; Fish, Lisa; Hogan, Paul; Stewart, Andrew; Kutler, Stephanie; Ladenson, Paul W; McDermott, Michael; Hupart, Kenneth H

    2014-09-01

    Many changes in health care delivery, health legislation, and the physician workforce that affect the supply and demand for endocrinology services have occurred since the first published workforce study of adult endocrinologists in 2003. The objective of the study was to assess the current adult endocrinology workforce data and provide the first analysis of the pediatric endocrinology workforce and to project the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025. A workforce model was developed from an analysis of proprietary and publicly available databases, consultation with a technical expert panel, and the results of an online survey of board-certified endocrinologists. The Endocrine Society commissioned The Lewin Group to estimate current supply and to project gaps between supply and demand for endocrinologists. A technical expert panel of senior endocrinologists provided context, clinical information, and direction. The following were measured: 1) the current adult and pediatric endocrinology workforce and the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025 and 2) the number of additional entrants into the endocrinology work pool that would be required to close the gap between supply and demand. Currently there is a shortage of approximately 1500 adult and 100 pediatric full-time equivalent endocrinologists. The gap for adult endocrinologists will expand to 2700 without an increase in the number of fellows trained. An increase in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus further expands the demand for adult endocrinologists. The gap can be closed in 5 and 10 years by increasing the number of fellowship positions by 14.4% and 5.5% per year, respectively. The gap between supply and demand for pediatric endocrinologists will close by 2016, and thereafter an excess supply over demand will develop at the current rate of new entrants into the work force. There are insufficient adult endocrinologists to satisfy current and future demand. A number of proactive

  2. Uncertainty in the carbon cycle and its contributions to overall uncertainty in future climate projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, Andrei

    2010-05-01

    The contribution of carbon cycle uncertainty to the uncertainty in future climate projections is studied by means of numerical simulations with the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Three ensembles of 21st century climate simulations were carried out using input probability distributions for climate sensitivity, rate of heat uptake by the ocean and strength of aerosol forcing consistent with the changes in climate over 20th century. Uncertainties in the rate of oceanic carbon uptake and strength of CO2 fertilization were also included. Each ensemble consists of 400 simulations. In first ensemble all sub-components of the IGSM were fully coupled. To evaluate uncertainty in the feedback between climate and carbon cycle, an additional ensemble of radiatively uncoupled simulations was carried out. Because the terrestrial ecosystem model used in the IGSM takes into account nitrogen limitation on carbon uptake by vegetation, feedbacks associated with terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle have different signs. As a result, total feedback between climate and carbon cycle is rather weak and can be either positive or negative. This explains why the probability distribution for surface warming obtained from simulations with the IGSM is more symmetric than ones presented in the IPCC AR4. Reference greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions for business as usual scenario were used in first two ensembles. In all simulations of the third ensemble the IGSM was forced by the GHGs concentrations from the simulation with the median values of all climate parameter, thus eliminating uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Contribution of carbon cycle uncertainty to the uncertainties in projected climate changes turned out to be surprisingly small, at least for business as usual emission scenario.

  3. Atmospheric Rivers in VR-CESM: Historical Comparison and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClenny, E. E.; Ullrich, P. A.

    2016-12-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for most of the horizontal vapor transport from the tropics, and bring upwards of half the annual precipitation to midlatitude west coasts. The difference between a drought year and a wet year can come down to 1-2 ARs. Such few events transform an otherwise arid region into one which supports remarkable biodiversity, productive agriculture, and booming human populations. It follows that such a sensitive hydroclimate feature would demand priority in evaluating end-of-century climate runs, and indeed, the AR subfield has grown significantly over the last decade. However, results tend to vary wildly from study to study, raising questions about how to best approach ARs in models. The disparity may result from any number of issues, including the ability for a model to properly resolve a precipitating AR, to the formulation and application of an AR detection algorithm. ARs pose a unique problem in global climate models (GCMs) computationally and physically, because the GCM horizontal grid must be fine enough to resolve coastal mountain range topography and force orographic precipitation. Thus far, most end-of-century projections on ARs have been performed on models whose grids are too coarse to resolve mountain ranges, causing authors to draw conclusions on AR intensity from water vapor content or transport alone. The use of localized grid refinement in the Variable Resolution version of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) has succeeded in resolving AR landfall. This study applies an integrated water vapor AR detection algorithm to historical and future projections from VR-CESM, with historical ARs validated against NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications. Results on end-of-century precipitating AR frequency, intensity, and landfall location will be discussed.

  4. Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslava Garza

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We forecast the future (2050 distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3 and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2 were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change.

  5. Hydroclimatic modelling of local sea level rise and its projection in future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naren, A.; Maity, Rajib

    2016-09-01

    Studies on sea level rise (SLR) in the context of climate change are gaining importance in the recent past. Whereas there is some clear evidence of SLR at global scale, its trend varies significantly from location to location. The role of different meteorological variables on sea level change (SLC) is explored. We hypothesise that the role of such variables varies from location to location and modelling of local SLC requires a proper identification of specific role of individual factors. After identifying a group of various local meteorological variables, Supervised Principal Component Analysis (SPCA) is used to develop a location specific Combined Index (CI). The SPCA ensures that the developed CI possesses highest possible association with the historical SLC at that location. Further, using the developed CI, an attempt is made to model the local sea level (LSL) variation in synchronous with the changing climate. The developed approach, termed as hydroclimatic semi-empirical approach, is found to be potential for local SLC at different coastal locations. The validated hydroclimatic approach is used for future projection of SLC at those coastal locations till 2100 for different climate change scenarios, i.e. different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Future hydrometeorological variables are obtained from Global Climate Models (GCMs) for different such scenarios, i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Effect of glacial isostatic readjustment (GIA) is not included in this study. However, if the reliable information on GIA is available for a location, the same can be arithmetically added to the final outcome of the proposed hydrometeorological approach.

  6. Navigating Bioethical Waters: Two Pilot Projects in Problem-Based Learning for Future Bioscience and Biotechnology Professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Roberta M; Levine, Aaron D; Kirkman, Robert; Blake, Laura Palucki; Drake, Matthew

    2016-12-01

    We believe that the professional responsibility of bioscience and biotechnology professionals includes a social responsibility to contribute to the resolution of ethically fraught policy problems generated by their work. It follows that educators have a professional responsibility to prepare future professionals to discharge this responsibility. This essay discusses two pilot projects in ethics pedagogy focused on particularly challenging policy problems, which we call "fractious problems". The projects aimed to advance future professionals' acquisition of "fractious problem navigational" skills, a set of skills designed to enable broad and deep understanding of fractious problems and the design of good policy resolutions for them. A secondary objective was to enhance future professionals' motivation to apply these skills to help their communities resolve these problems. The projects employed "problem based learning" courses to advance these learning objectives. A new assessment instrument, "Skills for Science/Engineering Ethics Test" (SkillSET), was designed and administered to measure the success of the courses in doing so. This essay first discusses the rationale for the pilot projects, and then describes the design of the pilot courses and presents the results of our assessment using SkillSET in the first pilot project and the revised SkillSET 2.0 in the second pilot project. The essay concludes with discussion of observations and results.

  7. Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming

  8. Uncertainty in flow and sediment projections due to future climate scenarios for the 3S Rivers in the Mekong Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Bikesh; Cochrane, Thomas A.; Caruso, Brian S.; Arias, Mauricio E.; Piman, Thanapon

    2016-09-01

    Reliable projections of discharge and sediment are essential for future water and sediment management plans under climate change, but these are subject to numerous uncertainties. This study assessed the uncertainty in flow and sediment projections using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) associated with three Global Climate Models (GCMs), three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and three model parameter (MP) sets for the 3S Rivers in the Mekong River Basin. The uncertainty was analyzed for the short term future (2021-2040 or 2030s) and long term future (2051-2070 or 2060s) time horizons. Results show that dominant sources of uncertainty in flow and sediment constituents vary spatially across the 3S basin. For peak flow, peak sediment, and wet seasonal flows projection, the greatest uncertainty sources also vary with time horizon. For 95% low flows and for seasonal and annual flow projections, GCM and MP were the major sources of uncertainty, whereas RCPs had less of an effect. The uncertainty due to RCPs is large for annual sediment load projections. While model parameterization is the major source of uncertainty in the short term (2030s), GCMs and RCPs are the major contributors to uncertainty in flow and sediment projections in the longer term (2060s). Overall, the uncertainty in sediment load projections is larger than the uncertainty in flow projections. In general, our results suggest the need to investigate the major contributing sources of uncertainty in large basins temporally and at different scales, as this can have major consequences for water and sediment management decisions. Further, since model parameterization uncertainty can play a significant role for flow and sediment projections, there is a need to incorporate hydrological model parameter uncertainty in climate change studies and efforts to reduce the parameter uncertainty as much as possible should be considered through a careful calibration and validation process.

  9. Future air quality in Europe: a multi-model assessment of projected exposure to ozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Colette

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to explore future air quality in Europe at the 2030 horizon, two emission scenarios developed in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment including varying assumptions on climate and energy access policies are investigated with an ensemble of six regional and global atmospheric chemistry transport models.

    A specific focus is given in the paper to the assessment of uncertainties and robustness of the projected changes in air quality. The present work relies on an ensemble of chemistry transport models giving insight into the model spread. Both regional and global scale models were involved, so that the ensemble benefits from medium-resolution approaches as well as global models that capture long-range transport. For each scenario a whole decade is modelled in order to gain statistical confidence in the results. A statistical downscaling approach is used to correct the distribution of the model projection. Last, the modelling experiment is linked to a hind-cast study published earlier, where the performances of all participating models were extensively documented.

    The analysis is presented in an exposure-based framework in order to discuss policy relevant changes. According to the emission projections, ozone precursors such as NOx will drop to 30% to 50% of their current levels, depending on the scenario. As a result, annual mean O3 will slightly increase in NOx saturated areas but the overall O3 burden will decrease substantially. Exposure to detrimental O3 levels for health (SOMO35 will be reduced down to 45% to 70% of their current levels. And the fraction of stations where present-day exceedences of daily maximumO3 is higher than 120 μg m-3 more than 25 days per year will drop from 43% down to 2 to 8%.

    We conclude that air pollution mitigation measures (present in both scenarios are the main factors leading to the

  10. Projecting future grassland productivity to assess the sustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in the Greater Platte River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Phyual, Khem

    2014-01-01

    This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha−1 year−1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha−1 year−1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha−1 year−1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

  11. Future projection of mean and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon and Indian Ocean Climate systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Annamalai, H [IPRC, University of Hawaii

    2014-09-15

    The overall goal of this project is to assess the ability of the CMIP3/5 models to simulate the Indian-Ocean monsoon systems. The PI along with post-docs investigated research issues ranging from synoptic systems to long-term trends over the Asian monsoon region. The PI applied diagnostic tools such as moist static energy (MSE) to isolate: the moist and radiative processes responsible for extended monsoon breaks over South Asia, precursors in the ENSO-monsoon association, reasons for the drying tendency over South Asia and the possible effect on tropical Indian Ocean climate anomalies influencing certain aspects of ENSO characteristics. By diagnosing various observations and coupled model simulations, we developed working hypothesis and tested them by carrying out sensitivity experiments with both linear and nonlinear models. Possible physical and dynamical reasons for model sensitivities were deduced. On the teleconnection front, the ability of CMIP5 models in representing the monsoon-desert mechanism was examined recently. Further more, we have applied a suite of diagnostics and have performed an in depth analysis on CMIP5 integrations to isolate the possible reasons for the ENSO-monsoon linkage or lack thereof. The PI has collaborated with Dr. K.R. Sperber of PCMDI and other CLIVAR Asian-Australian monsoon panel members in understanding the ability of CMIP3/5 models in capturing monsoon and its spectrum of variability. The objective and process-based diagnostics aided in selecting models that best represent the present-day monsoon and its variability that are then employed for future projections. Two major highlights were an invitation to write a review on present understanding monsoons in a changing climate in Nature Climate Change, and identification of an east-west shift in observed monsoon rainfall (more rainfall over tropical western Pacific and drying tendency over South Asia) in the last six decades and attributing that shift to SST rise over the tropical

  12. New Zealand's neurologist workforce: a pragmatic analysis of demand, supply and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranta, Annemarei Anna; Tiwari, Priyesh; Mottershead, John; Abernethy, David; Simpson, Mark; Brickell, Kiri; Lynch, Christopher; Walker, Elizabeth; Frith, Richard

    2015-08-07

    To estimate current and future specialist neurologist demand and supply to assist with health sector planning. Current demand for the neurology workforce in New Zealand was assessed using neuroepidemiological data. To assess current supply, all New Zealand neurology departments were surveyed to determine current workforce and estimate average neurologist productivity. Projections were made based on current neurologists anticipated retirement rates and addition of new neurologists based on current training positions. We explored several models to address the supply-demand gap. The current supply of neurologists in New Zealand is 36 full-time equivalents (FTE), insufficient to meet current demand of 74 FTE. Demand will grow over time and if status quo is maintained the gap will widen. Pressures on healthcare dollars are ever increasing and we cannot expect to address the identified service gap by immediately doubling the number of neurologists. Instead we propose a 12-year strategic approach with investments to enhance service productivity, strengthen collaborative efforts between specialists and general service providers, moderately increase the number of neurologists and neurology training positions, and develop highly skilled non-specialists including trained.

  13. Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in East Asia Simulated by the MRI CGCM2

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Akio KITOH; Masahiro HOSAKA; Yukimasa ADACHI; Kenji KAMIGUCHI

    2005-01-01

    Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21st century and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-member ensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model (MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios. It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while both the frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a few percent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the rest of the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases, suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. South China is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitation intensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warming and an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone,which may be related with an El Ni(n)o-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease in summer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipit ation contrast more in the future.

  14. Transboundary Influences on Ozone Pollution in the United States: Present Conditions and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Sager, P.; Wang, H.; Jacob, D. J.; Park, R. J.

    2007-12-01

    The GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (v7-02-01) with 1° x1° horizontal resolution over North America is used to investigate the influence of transboundary pollution from Canada and Mexico on surface ozone in the United States. We conduct a series of 4 simulations for present day conditions: (1) a standard simulation with 2001 anthropogenic emissions worldwide, (2) with zero U.S. anthropogenic emissions, (3) with zero anthropogenic emission in North America (Canada, U.S. and Mexico), and (4) with 2006 East Asian emissions and no emission in North America. For future projections, we repeat (1)-(3) with a 2020 worldwide emissions inventory, in addition to a run with U.S. Power plant emissions switched off. The standard simulation is evaluated with observations for U.S. regions most sensitive to transboundary pollution (northeast for Canada, southwest for Mexico). Monthly mean ozone enhancements from transboundary pollution are in the 5-10 ppb range for these regions in June-August, but can exceed 30 ppbv under conditions when ozone is above the U.S. air quality standard (84 ppbv). Unlike intercontinental pollution influence which mainly contributes to the ozone background and is depleted during regional smog episodes, transboundary pollution influence from Canada and Mexico is highly variable and can contribute significantly to these episodes.

  15. The implications of climate change scenario selection for future streamflow projection in the Upper Colorado River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. L. Harding

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The impact of projected 21st century climate conditions on streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin was estimated using a multi-model ensemble approach wherein the downscaled outputs of 112 future climate projections from 16 global climate models (GCMs were used to drive a macroscale hydrology model. By the middle of the century, the impacts on streamflow range, over the entire ensemble, from a decrease of approximately 30% to an increase of approximately the same magnitude. Although prior studies and associated media coverage have focused heavily on the likelihood of a drier future for the Colorado River Basin, approximately 25 to 35% of the ensemble of runs, by 2099 and 2039, respectively, result in no change or increases in streamflow. The broad range of projected impacts is primarily the result of uncertainty in projections of future precipitation, and a relatively small part of the variability of precipitation across the projections can be attributed to the effect of emissions pathways. The simulated evolution of future temperature is strongly influenced by emissions, but temperature has a smaller influence than precipitation on flow. Period change statistics (i.e., the change in flow from one 30-yr period to another vary as much within a model ensemble as between models and emissions pathways. Even by the end of the current century, the variability across the projections is much greater than changes in the ensemble mean. The relatively large ensemble analysis described herein provides perspective on earlier studies that have used fewer scenarios, and suggests that impact analyses relying on one or a few climate scenarios are unacceptably influenced by the choice of projections.

  16. A statistical modeling framework for projecting future ambient ozone and its health impact due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Howard H.; Hao, Hua; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt

    2014-06-01

    The adverse health effects of ambient ozone are well established. Given the high sensitivity of ambient ozone concentrations to meteorological conditions, the impacts of future climate change on ozone concentrations and its associated health effects are of concern. We describe a statistical modeling framework for projecting future ozone levels and its health impacts under a changing climate. This is motivated by the continual effort to evaluate projection uncertainties to inform public health risk assessment. The proposed approach was applied to the 20-county Atlanta metropolitan area using regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Future ozone levels and ozone-related excesses in asthma emergency department (ED) visits were examined for the period 2041-2070. The computationally efficient approach allowed us to consider 8 sets of climate model outputs based on different combinations of 4 RCMs and 4 general circulation models. Compared to the historical period of 1999-2004, we found consistent projections across climate models of an average 11.5% higher ozone levels (range: 4.8%, 16.2%), and an average 8.3% (range: -7%-24%) higher number of ozone exceedance days. Assuming no change in the at-risk population, this corresponds to excess ozone-related ED visits ranging from 267 to 466 visits per year. Health impact projection uncertainty was driven predominantly by uncertainty in the health effect association and climate model variability. Calibrating climate simulations with historical observations reduced differences in projections across climate models.

  17. The Contract and Law in the Engineering Project Management%论工程项目管理中的合同与法律

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    党永胜

    2013-01-01

    Contract management determines the whole project management if can effectively develop or not in a certain extent, and the law is the important basis in the process of engineering contract drafting, signing and implementation, this paper described the contract and law in detail based on the engineering project management.%合同管理从一定意义上来说决定了整个工程管理是否能够有效开展,而法律是工程合同在起草、签订以及履行过程中的重要依据,本文以此为基础详细论述了工程项目管理中的合同与法律。

  18. Projecting future climate change effects on the extreme hydrological drought events in the Weihe River basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, F.; San, Y. Y.; Li, Y.; Ma, M.; Ren, L.; Zhao, C.; Liu, Y.; Yang, X.; Jiang, S.; Shen, H.

    2015-06-01

    In this study, a framework to project the potential future climate change impacts on extreme hydrological drought events in the Weihe River basin in North China is presented. This framework includes a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from a regional climate model for historical streamflow simulations and future streamflow projections, and models for univariate drought assessment and copula-based bivariate drought analysis. It is projected by the univariate drought analysis that future climate change would lead to increased frequencies of extreme hydrological drought events with higher severity. The bivariate drought assessment using copula shows that future droughts in the same return periods as historical droughts would be potentially longer and more severe, in terms of drought duration and severity. This trend would deteriorate the hydrological drought situation in the Weihe River basin. In addition, the uncertainties associated with climate models, hydrological models, and univariate and bivariate drought analysis should be quantified in the future research to improve the reliability of this study.

  19. Projection in Future Drought Hazard of South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenario 8.5 Using SPEI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byung Sik Kim

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI analysis was conducted using monthly precipitation data and temperature data on a 12.5 km × 12.5 km resolution based on a Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, and the characteristics of drought were identified by the threshold. In addition, the changes in drought severity and intensity were projected using the threshold based on the run-length concept and frequency analysis. As a result of the analysis, the probability density function of the total drought and maximum drought intensity moved the upper tail for the upcoming years, and the average drought intensity was also projected to become stronger in the future than in the present to the right side. Through this, it could be projected that the drought scale and frequency and the drought intensity will become severer over South Korea because of future climate change.

  20. ''Whither Deterrence?'' Final Report of the 2001 Futures Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poppe, C; Vergino, E; Barker, R; Brown, P; Gilmartin, T J; Nacht, M; Sloss, L

    2002-05-01

    This study began in April of 2001 to address the question of what deterrence should look like in the future. This section presents a brief synopsis of the study--a longer, more comprehensive report follows. This study presents four futures as a tool for planners who must think ahead fifteen years or more, rather than a prediction of the future. None of the four futures will emerge in just the way that has been described. Fifteen years from now, some mix of these futures is more likely, or perhaps we will see a trend toward one future, but with the possibility that any of the other three could appear, perhaps quite swiftly.

  1. Future projections of fire danger in Brazilian biomes in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libonati, Renata; Silva, Patrícia; DaCamara, Carlos; Bastos, Ana

    2016-04-01

    In the global context, Brazil is one of the regions more severely affected by fire occurrences, with important consequences in the global CO2 balance, the state of the Amazon forest and the ecological diversity of the region. Brazil is also one of the few regions experiencing a raise in annual mean temperature above 2.5o during the 20th century, which may further increase between 2o and 7o until 2100 and, likely, be accompanied by a decrease in precipitation [1]. As the fire occurrence and severity largely depends on these two variables, it is worth assessing the evolution of fire danger for the coming decades. In order to obtain a detailed characterization of the future fire patterns in the different biomes of Brazil, we use outputs from a regional-downscaling of the EC-Earth climate model at 0.44 degrees spatial resolution for two future scenarios, an intermediate (RCP4.5) and a more severe (RCP8.5) one. We use a fire danger index specifically developed for the Brazilian climate and biome characteristics, the IFR from INPE. This index relies on values of maximum temperature, accumulated precipitation over different periods, minimum relative humidity and vegetation cover to estimate the likelihood of fire occurrence. We find a systematic increase of the days with critical fire risk, which is more pronounced in RCP8.5 and mostly affects months when fire activity takes place. Temperature increase is the most determinant factor for the increase in fire danger in the dry regions of savannah and shrubland, a result to be expected as fuel is already very dry. [1] Collins, M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver and M. Wehner, 2013: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

  2. The implications of climate change scenario selection for future streamflow projection in the Upper Colorado River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. L. Harding

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of projected 21st century climate conditions on streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin was estimated using a multi-model ensemble approach wherein the downscaled outputs of 112 future climate scenarios from 16 global climate models (GCMs were used to drive a macroscale hydrology model. By the middle of the century, the impacts on streamflow range, over the entire ensemble, from a decrease of approximately 30% to an increase of approximately the same magnitude. Although prior studies and associated media coverage have focused heavily on the likelihood of a drier future for the Colorado River Basin, approximately one-third of the ensemble of runs result in little change or increases in streamflow. The broad range of projected impacts is primarily the result of uncertainty in projections of future precipitation, and a relatively small part of the variability of precipitation across the projections can be attributed to the effect of emissions scenarios. The simulated evolution of future temperature is strongly influenced by emissions, but temperature has a smaller influence than precipitation on flow. Period change statistics (i.e., the change in flow from one 30-yr period to another vary as much within a model ensemble as between models and emissions scenarios. Even over the course of the current century, the variability across the projections is much greater than the trend in the ensemble mean. The relatively large ensemble analysis described herein provides perspective on earlier studies that have used fewer scenarios, and suggests that impact analyses relying on one or a few scenarios, as is still common in dynamical downscaling assessments, are unacceptably influenced by choice of projections.

  3. The project mechanism law: Germany's CO2 trading becomes international. Introduction of project-related mechanisms in German law[Joint Implementation (JI), Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)]; Das Projekt-Mechanismen-Gesetz: Deutschlands CO{sub 2}-Handel wird international. Die Einfuehrung der projektbezogenen Mechanismen in das deutsche Recht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reuter, A.; Loewer, T. [Rechtsanwaltssozietaet White und Case, Dusseldorf (Germany)

    2006-07-15

    With the legislation on project mechanisms in September 2005, the Kyoto Protocol and the EU Linking Directive have been integrated in German law. Germany can now use CDM and JI projects as an investor country and host country; for the German industry, there is a wider range of tools for meeting their emission reduction obligations and also a wider offer of opportunities for trading and arbitrage. (orig.)

  4. Education and Public Outreach at EGO/Virgo: past experiences and future projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzano, Massimiliano

    2015-08-01

    We are approaching the new generation Gravitational Wave (GW) detector Era and in the next months a new exiting period for GW scientists will start enforcing collaboration and interactions among different scientific communities. We aim to reach a wider audience to spread this enthusiasm in the general public about our every day activities and let them know how it will change our understanding of the Universe, once revealed the Gravitational waves. In this talk, we will report about the activities of the last years and about the EGO/Virgo outreach plans for the future. The main goal of the Virgo/EGO outreach activity is to raise awareness and curiosity about the GW research projects. In the past years we informed the general public about science we do at EGO/Virgo site, trying to attract students in doing research, letting them know about the Virgo detector and involving them in small research activities. We run a regular program of site visits, and we often organized astronomical observations and science cafe' events which attracted a large number of people. Efforts were made also to involve kids in understanding our scientific job. We started a series of regular events in which art and science were fused.We are strengthening our outreach activities with common efforts in the Virgo laboratories which are spread all over in Europe.We plan to make available a scientific path within Virgo, where the public can do little experiences of science or for example tile, for a day, the activity of our researchers.

  5. Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Zhonglin Xu; Zhaodong Feng; Jianjun Yang; Jianghua Zheng; Fang Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate ...

  6. Integrating futures studies with organizational development : design options for the scenario project "RSW2020"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Twist, van M.J.W.; Steen, van der M.; Vlist, van der M.J.; Demkes, R.H.J.

    2011-01-01

    Most futures studies are not used by managers and strategists and do not influence the direction of organizational development. Although the contribution of future studies to management is in theory all but self-evident, the practice in organizations is that futures knowledge is hardly used, or at m

  7. Future wave and wind projections for United States and United-States-affiliated Pacific Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storlazzi, Curt D.; Shope, James B.; Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christine A.; Barnard, Patrick L.

    2015-01-01

    Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Spatially and temporally varying waves dominate coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of the islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through the year 2100 using wind parameter outputs from four atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5, for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Wind fields from the global climate models were used to drive a global WAVEWATCH-III wave model and generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific for the years 1976–2005 (historical), 2026–2045 (mid-century projection), and 2085–2100 (end-of-century projection). Although the results show some spatial heterogeneity, overall the December-February extreme significant wave heights, defined as the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave height time-series data modeled within a specific period, increase from present to mid-century and then decrease toward the end of the century; June-August extreme wave heights increase throughout the century within the Central region of the study area; and September-November wave heights decrease strongly throughout the 21st century, displaying the largest and most widespread decreases of any season. Peak wave periods increase east of the International Date Line during the December-February and June-August seasons under RCP4.5. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, wave periods decrease west of the International Date Line during December-February but increase in the eastern half of the study area. Otherwise, wave periods decrease

  8. "Projeto Rios" (Rivers Project) a methodology of classroom of the future (northern Portugal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Ana

    2013-04-01

    in a placard at school, in the school website and in local parish council. With this project we promote scientific curiosity and implements to the experimental scientific method, with the collection and recording of data and its discussion. Also, it appears that the happiness, the well-being, the interest, the spirit of cooperation and commitment shown by the students was a constant in all outputs and performed work. The young people were very receptive to all proposals and they were the first to saying "We want to go to the river". They have the responsibility of the vigilance and protection of their selected river section and they will realize that the future will be so much better if we preserve our natural heritage, as rivers are.

  9. Between Management and the Rule of Law: on the move towards a management model for the judiciary - Results from the project “Basic research into Court Management in Switzerland”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Lienhard

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The courts are the jewel of any state governed by the rule of law. Yet even the judi-cial system must modernise its methods of organisation and management if it is to guarantee sustainable jurisdiction. But how much management is itself sustainable within the judicial system? And what is the right way towards an optimized judicial system and well performing courts? An interdisciplinary research team from six uni-versities under the leadership of the Centre of Competence for Public Management at the University of Bern has considered this question in several dissertations and studies as part of a Swiss National Science Foundation project. This paper will pro-vide a reflection of the research work and future fields of research.

  10. Anticipating the use of future things: towards a framework for prospective use analysis in innovation design projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Julien; Buisine, Stéphanie; Aoussat, Améziane

    2013-11-01

    Anticipation of future product use is a persistent issue in User-Centered Design. In this paper, we argue that one obstacle to early integration of use analysis in innovation design is overreliance on retrospective use analysis, i.e. that which is based on clear references to existing products or activities. In contrast, innovation design projects are full of uncertainty, leading to a need for prospective analysis. After having described some limitations of prospective use analysis, we contend that creativity tools may be used to assist the anticipation of future product use, by allowing designers to approach the variability of situations of future use in a structured manner rather than by "muddling through". We illustrate the expected benefits of this approach with two case studies, and describe some prospects for future research and practice in ergonomics.

  11. Future Changes in Rainfall Extremes Associated with El Nino Projected by a Global 20-km Mesh Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitoh, A.; Endo, H.

    2015-12-01

    El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will still be the most dominant year-to-year variations of the future tropical climate system. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is used to project future changes in rainfall extremes associated with El Nino at the end of the 21st century. Four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) changes are used as future boundary conditions based on the CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario. Rainfall extremes such as the maximum 5-day precipitation total (Rx5d) over the western Pacific are positively correlated to the Nino3.4 SST anomalies. It is found that Rx5d regressed to the Nino3.4 SST will increase two times in the future compared to the present value. This implies drastic increase of risk of heavy-rainfall induced disasters under by global warming over the western Pacific countries.

  12. Projecting water withdrawal and supply for future decades in the U.S. under climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Sujoy B; Chen, Limin; Girvetz, Evan H; Maurer, Edwin P; Mills, William B; Grieb, Thomas M

    2012-03-01

    The sustainability of water resources in future decades is likely to be affected by increases in water demand due to population growth, increases in power generation, and climate change. This study presents water withdrawal projections in the United States (U.S.) in 2050 as a result of projected population increases and power generation at the county level as well as the availability of local renewable water supplies. The growth scenario assumes the per capita water use rate for municipal withdrawals to remain at 2005 levels and the water use rates for new thermoelectric plants at levels in modern closed-loop cooling systems. In projecting renewable water supply in future years, median projected monthly precipitation and temperature by sixteen climate models were used to derive available precipitation in 2050 (averaged over 2040-2059). Withdrawals and available precipitation were compared to identify regions that use a large fraction of their renewable local water supply. A water supply sustainability risk index that takes into account additional attributes such as susceptibility to drought, growth in water withdrawal, increased need for storage, and groundwater use was developed to evaluate areas at greater risk. Based on the ranking by the index, high risk areas can be assessed in more mechanistic detail in future work.

  13. Projecting Future Land Use Changes in West Africa Driven by Climate and Socioeconomic Factors: Uncertainties and Implications for Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

    2015-12-01

    Land use changes constitute an important regional climate change forcing in West Africa, a region of strong land-atmosphere coupling. At the same time, climate change can be an important driver for land use, although its importance relative to the impact of socio-economic factors may vary significant from region to region. This study compares the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa and examines various sources of uncertainty using a land use projection model (LandPro) that accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. Future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. The impact of human decision-making on land use was explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios to examine the range of uncertainties in projecting future land use. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease of crop yield together with increase of food demand are found to cause a significant increase in agricultural land use at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century, and the resulting land use land cover changes are found to feed back to the regional climate in a way that exacerbates the negative impact of climate on crop yield. Analysis of results from multiple decision-making scenarios suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision making to minimize land use could be very effective in many parts of the region.

  14. The Challenge of Integrating OHS into Industrial Project Risk Management: Proposal of a Methodological Approach to Guide Future Research (Case of Mining Projects in Quebec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adel Badri

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Although risk management tools are put to good use in many industrial sectors, some large projects have been met with numerous problems due to failure to take occupational health and safety (OHS into consideration. In spite of the high level of risk and uncertainty associated with many industrial projects, the number of studies of methods for managing all known risks systematically remains small. Under effervescent economic conditions, industries must meet several challenges associated with frequent project start-ups. In highly complex and uncertain environments, rigorous management of risk remains indispensable for avoiding threats to the success of projects. Many businesses seek continually to create and improve integrated approaches to risk management. This article puts into perspective the complexity of the challenge of integrating OHS into industrial project risk management. A conceptual and methodological approach is proposed to guide future research focused on meeting this challenge. The approach is based on applying multi-disciplinary research modes to a complex industrial context in order to identify all scenarios likely to contain threats to humans or the environment. A case study is used to illustrate the potential of the proposed approach for application and its contribution to meeting the challenge of taking OHS into consideration. On-site researchers were able to develop a new approach that helped two mining companies in Quebec (Canada to achieve successful integration of OHS into expansion projects.

  15. The implications of regional and national demographic projections for future GMS costs in Ireland through to 2026.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Conway, Aisling

    2014-10-21

    As the health services in Ireland have become more resource-constrained, pressure has increased to reduce public spending on community drug schemes such as General Medical Services (GMS) drug prescribing and to understand current and future trends in prescribing. The GMS scheme covers approximately 37% of the Irish population in 2011 and entitles them, inter alia, to free prescription drugs and appliances. This paper projects the effects of future changes in population, coverage, claims rates and average claims cost on GMS costs in Ireland.

  16. The European Donor Health Care Project: fulfilling needs and challenges for the future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.J.M. van den Burg

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The Donor Health Care project is a EU granted project to develop a learning programme for professionals working in the field of Donor Health Care. The innovation of this curriculum is the focus on all donors, irrespective of whether they donate blood, cells, tissues or organs. This article describes the background of the project and the current possibilities and limitations of European accreditation, distance learning and Master degrees.

  17. Future stable water isotope projection with an isotope-AGCM driven by CMIP5 SSTs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshimura, K.

    2016-12-01

    Stable water isotope ratios (dD and d18O) are widely used as proxy of past climate changes, and it is extremely important to understand and predict the mechanism of current isotopic spatio-temporal behavior with regard to the on-going climate change. However, as compared many studies on reproduction of isotopes for the past, there are few studies on future projection of isotopes. Therefore, in this study, a set of experiments using an isotope-incorporate AGCM (IsoGSM) with SST and sea ice field simulated from multiple CMIP5 models, namely MIROC5, CCSM4, and MRI-CGCM3, were conducted for the end of 20th century (1980-1990) and the end of 21st century (2080-2090) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Thus the responses in stable water isotope ratio in precipitation and water vapor in accordance to the global warming were investigated. As results, the changes in global surface air temperature were about +1K and +3K with RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. Similarly, the global precipitation changes were about +0.07mm/day (about +2%) and +0.18mm/day (about +5%), and the global precipitable water changes were about +2mm (+7%) and +6mm (+24%), respectively. The moisture was increased in accordance to the Clausius-Clapayron theory (7%/K), but the increase in precipitation is not that large. This indicates that the global hydrological cycle was slowed down in the globally warmed experiments. On the other hand, for the isotopic signals, the changes in globally averaged d18O in precipitation were about 0.2‰ and 0.4‰, and those in precipitable water were 0.2‰ and 0.5‰, in RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. It is well-known that there are temperature effect (positive correlation in air temperature and precipitation isotopes) and amount effect (negative correlation in precipitation amount and isotopes), but in the globally warmed world, these effects were offset, and only weaker temperature effect was appeared in the global mean isotope signals. Regional details will be shown

  18. Reflections on Ethical Dilemmas in Working with So-Called "Vulnerable" and "Hard-to-Reach" Groups: Experiences from the Foodways and Futures Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gombert, Karolina; Douglas, Flora; McArdle, Karen; Carlisle, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    This article reflects on ethical limitations and dilemmas encountered during fieldwork of the Foodways and Futures project (2013-2016). Foodways and Futures is a qualitative action research project aimed at exploring the food choices of former homeless young people (aged 16-25) in Aberdeenshire. In Scotland, where over 13,000 young people become…

  19. Law project on the radioactive materials and wastes management 2006 recommendations presented by Anne Duthilleul; Projet de loi sur la gestion des matieres et des dechets radioactifs 2006 avis presente par Mme Anne Duthilleul

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    This document provides recommendations on the law project concerning the radioactive material and wastes management. It precises the law objectives, the french particularities concerning the radioactive wastes and materials management, the public debate in France, the evaluation of the researches, the recommendations of the economic and social council. (A.L.B.)

  20. Future Flows Climate: an ensemble of 1-km climate change projections for hydrological application in Great Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Prudhomme

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The dataset Future Flows Climate was developed as part of the project ''Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications, and to enable climate change uncertainty and climate variability to be accounted for in the assessment of their possible impacts on the environment.

    Future Flows Climate is derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE that is part of the basis of UKCP09 and includes projections in available precipitation (water available to hydrological processes after snow and ice storages have been accounted for and potential evapotranspiration. It corresponds to an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1950 to December 2098, each a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3. Data are provided on a 1-km grid over the HadRM3 land areas at a daily (available precipitation and monthly (PE time step as netCDF files.

    Because systematic biases in temperature and precipitation were found between HadRM3-PPE and gridded temperature and precipitation observations for the 1962–1991 period, a monthly bias correction procedure was undertaken, based on a linear correction for temperature and a quantile-mapping correction (using the gamma distribution for precipitation followed by a spatial downscaling. Available precipitation was derived from the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature time series using a simple elevation-dependant snow-melt model. Potential evapotranspiration time series were calculated for each month using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equations and bias-corrected temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed from HadRM3-PPE along with latitude of the grid and the day of the year.

    Future Flows Climate is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. It is the

  1. Towards the automotive HMI of the future: Overview of the AIDE - Integrated project results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amditis, A.; Andreone, L.; Pagle, K.; Markkula, G.; Deregibus, E.; Romera Rue, M.; Bellotti, F.; Engelsberg, A.; Brouwer, R.; Peters, B.; Gloria, A. de

    2010-01-01

    The Adaptive Integrated Driver-vehicle interfacE (AIDE) is an integrated project funded by the European Commission in the Sixth Framework Programme. The project, which involves 31 partners from the European automotive industry and academia, deals with behavioral and technical issues related to autom

  2. Assessment of Climate Projections Using Ensembles of CMIP5 GCMs and Developing a Probable Future Scenario for Evaluation of Possible Future Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Moradkhani, H.

    2014-12-01

    Global climatic change is expected to have severe effects on natural systems along with various socio-economic aspects of human life. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are widely used to study the impacts in future, with varied projections/simulations from the entire participating member GCMs. This has urged scientific communities across the world try to improve the understandings of future climate conditions, and reduce the uncertainties associated with them. In the present study, we have used various multi-modelling methods, both deterministic and probabilistic, to reduce the model uncertainties, in historical time period of 1970-2000. The analysis is performed for uncertainty bounds of precipitation and temperature using 10 selected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from Climate Model Inter-comparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset over 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB). All the multi-modelling methods are applied and evaluated in accordance to their performance indicator using Taylor diagrams on simulating past climate for all 10 sub-basins. The best performing multi-model method, on basis of performance of all the climatic parameters, is chosen for a particular sub-basin and same is used to develop a probable future scenario for the period of 2010-2099. All the analysis and computations are performed on statistically downscaled GCM data to increase the accuracy and better capture the uncertainty bounds on sub-basin scale, as well as enhancing the ability of multi-modeling techniques. All the future time series are used to assess the uncertainties of climatic parameters for climate change analysis. Results have brought insight into each of the multi-modelling techniques i.e. highlighting the pros and cons of all the applied methods. It was also inferred that multi-modelling techniques varied from basin to basin and with different variables, as per their capabilities to capture the observation spread/uncertainty. Eventually, the different ensemble time series

  3. SLUDGE MASS REDUCTION: PRIMARY COMPOSITIONAL FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE MELT RATE FOR FUTURE SLUDGE BATCH PROJECTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newell, J; Miller, D; Stone, M; Pickenheim, B

    2008-08-28

    The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) was tasked to provide an assessment of the downstream impacts to the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) of decisions regarding the implementation of Al-dissolution to support sludge mass reduction and processing. Based on future sludge batch compositional projections from the Liquid Waste Organization's (LWO) sludge batch plan, assessments have been made with respect to the ability to maintain comparable projected operating windows for sludges with and without Al-dissolution. As part of that previous assessment, candidate frits were identified to provide insight into melt rate for average sludge batches representing with and without Al-dissolution flowsheets. Initial melt rate studies using the melt rate furnace (MRF) were performed using five frits each for Cluster 2 and Cluster 4 compositions representing average without and with Al-dissolution. It was determined, however, that the REDOX endpoint (Fe{sup 2+}/{Sigma}Fe for the glass) for Clusters 2 and 4 resulted in an overly oxidized feed which negatively affected the initial melt rate tests. After the sludge was adjusted to a more reduced state, additional testing was performed with frits that contained both high and low concentrations of sodium and boron oxides. These frits were selected strictly based on the ability to ascertain compositional trends in melt rate and did not necessarily apply to any acceptability criteria for DWPF processing. The melt rate data are in general agreement with historical trends observed at SRNL and during processing of SB3 (Sludge Batch 3)and SB4 in DWPF. When MAR acceptability criteria were applied, Frit 510 was seen to have the highest melt rate at 0.67 in/hr for Cluster 2 (without Al-dissolution), which is compositionally similar to SB4. For Cluster 4 (with Al-dissolution), which is compositionally similar to SB3, Frit 418 had the highest melt rate at 0.63 in/hr. Based on this data, there appears to be a slight advantage

  4. Identification of observables for future grids – the framework developed in the ELECTRA project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visscher, Klaas; Marinelli, Mattia; Morch, Andrei Z.;

    2015-01-01

    The main subject of this paper is the classification and identification of observables for present and future grids. In order to make an inventory of present and potentially new observables, a systematic classification and identification of observables for future grids is conducted. After first...

  5. Identification of observables for future grids - The framework developed in the ELECTRA project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visscher, K.; Marinelli, M.; Morch, A.Z.; Jakobsen, S.H.

    2015-01-01

    The main subject of this paper is the classification and identification of observables for present and future grids. In order to make an inventory of present and potentially new observables, a systematic classification and identification of observables for future grids is conducted. After first

  6. Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: comparison with observations and projected near-future changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shindell, D.T.; Krol, M.C.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/078760410

    2006-01-01

    We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-ofthe- art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show

  7. Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shindell, D.T.; Faluvegi, G.; Stevenson, D.S.; Krol, M.C.; Emmons, L.K.; Lamarque, J.F.; Petron, G.; Dentener, F.J.; Ellingsen, K.; Schultz, M.G.; Wild, O.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C.S.; Bergmann, D.J.; Bey, I.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Collins, W.J.; Derwent, R.G.; Doherty, R.M.; Drevet, J.; Eskes, H.J.; Fiore, A.M.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D.A.; Horowitz, L.W.; Isaksen, I.S.A.; Lawrence, M.G.; Montanaro, V.; Muller, J.F.; Pitari, G.; Prather, M.J.; Pyle, J.A.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Sanderson, M.G.; Savage, N.H.; Strahan, S.E.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Unger, N.; Noije, van T.P.C.; Zeng, G.

    2006-01-01

    We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show

  8. Business Law

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Föh, Kennet Fischer; Mandøe, Lene; Tinten, Bjarke

    Business Law is a translation of the 2nd edition of Erhvervsjura - videregående uddannelser. It is an educational textbook for the subject of business law. The textbook covers all important topic?s within business law such as the Legal System, Private International Law, Insolvency Law, Contract law......, Instruments of debt and other claims, Sale of Goods and real estate, Charges, mortgages and pledges, Guarantees, Credit agreements, Tort Law, Product liability and Insurance, Company law, Market law, Labour Law, Family Law and Law of Inheritance....

  9. Report on behalf of the Economic Affairs and Plan Commission on the law project relative to the energy markets; Rapport au nom de la commission des affaires economiques et du plan sur le projet de loi relatif aux marches energetiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-10-01

    In the framework of the directive no. 98/30 concerning the common rules for the natural gas internal market, the Senate debates on the law project relative to the energy markets no. 406, adopted by the Minister Council the 25 september 2002. This project transposes the directive content in french law. This document presents the amendments allowing the directive transposition. (A.L.B.)

  10. Future of family support: Projected living arrangements and income sources of older people in Hong Kong up to 2030.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Kok-Hoe

    2016-06-01

    The study aims to project future trends in living arrangements and access to children's cash contributions and market income sources among older people in Hong Kong. A cell-based model was constructed by combining available population projections, labour force projections, an extrapolation of the historical trend in living arrangements based on national survey datasets and a regression model on income sources. Under certain assumptions, the proportion of older people living with their children may decline from 59 to 48% during 2006-2030. Although access to market income sources may improve slightly, up to 20% of older people may have no access to either children's financial support or market income sources, and will not live with their children by 2030. Family support is expected to contract in the next two decades. Public pensions should be expanded to protect financially vulnerable older people. © 2015 AJA Inc.

  11. Requirements for future control room and visualization features in the Web-of-Cells framework defined in the ELECTRA project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tornelli, Carlo; Zuelli, Roberto; Marinelli, Mattia

    2017-01-01

    This paper outlines an overview of the general requirements for the control rooms of the future power systems (2030+). The roles and activities in the future control centres will evolve with respect to the switching, dispatching and restoration functions currently active. The control centre...... operators will supervise on the power system and intervene - when necessary - thanks to the maturation and wide scale deployment of flexible controls. For the identification of control room requirements, general trends in power system evolution are considered and mainly the outcomes of the ELECTRA IRP...... project, that proposes a new Web-of-Cell (WoC) power system control architecture. Dedicated visualization features are proposed, aimed to support the control room operators activities in a WoC oriented approach. Furthermore, the work takes into account the point of view of network operators about future...

  12. Teaching with Soap: Examples of Project-Based Units for Students and Future Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Ivan; Hamed, Kastro M.

    2016-01-01

    This article describes the use of project-based instruction in activities and labs intended to develop higher-order thinking skills with high school students and pre-service teachers through the use of soap making.

  13. HIKE Project. Planning for the future: investigating new library services platforms

    OpenAIRE

    Heyhoe-Pullar, Briony; Devenney, Amy

    2014-01-01

    In their session, Briony and Amy will report on Huddersfield’s involvement in the HIKE Project (Huddersfield, Intota, Knowledge Base Plus Evaluation). HIKE is a JISC funded project managed by Computing and Library Services at the University of Huddersfield, set up to carry out a full assessment of the suitability and potential of Intota as a replacement to the traditional LMS in the UK market. The session will include discussion on current ordering processes and how a product such as Intota c...

  14. Flight Deck of the Future: Virtual Windows and e-textile iGear Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Flight Deck of the Future (F.F) will integrate interdisciplinary talent to design innovative, integrated human interfaces for the next generation of human...

  15. Integrating Human Performance Metrics into the Future Air Traffic Management Concepts Evaluation Tool Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — NASA's Future Air traffic management Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET) is a simulation tool to evaluate next generation air traffic management (ATM) systems. FACET...

  16. Keeping up with Changes in Laws Affecting Immigrants. Tierra de Oportunidad Module 20. LAES: Latino Adult Education Services Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kissam, Ed; Dorsey, Holda

    This module, which may be used as the basis for a workshop or as a special topic unit in adult basic education or English-as-a-Second-Language (ESL) courses, addresses keeping up with changes in laws affecting immigrants. Its objective is to teach students to track the legal framework that affects immigrants' lives and to build problem-solving…

  17. Projections of future meteorological drought and wet periods in the Amazon

    OpenAIRE

    Duffy, Philip B.; Brando, Paulo; Asner, Gregory P.; Field, Christopher B.

    2015-01-01

    Recent severe droughts in the Amazon basin have increased interest in future climatological and ecological conditions of this region. Future changes in drought and wet periods could have enormous impacts on forest structure, biomass, and composition, but our ability to predict changes in the hydrological regime remains highly uncertain. We evaluate an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models and demonstrate their accuracy in simulating processes influencing drought in Amazonia. These model...

  18. Evaluating the response of Lake Prespa (SW Balkan) to future climate change projections from a high-resolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos

    2017-04-01

    The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change. Projections suggest that the Balkans will experience precipitation and runoff decreases of up to 30% by 2100. However, these projections show large regional spatial variability. Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are particularly threatened by projected climate changes that compound increasingly intensive human impacts (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of individual lake-wetland hydrological responses to future climate changes, which requires fine-resolution projections and a good understanding of the impact of hydro-climate variability on individual lakes. Climate change may directly affect lake level (variability), volume and water temperatures. In turn, these variables influence lake-ecology, habitats and water quality. Land-use intensification and water abstraction multiply these climate-driven changes. To date, there are no projections of future water level and -temperature of individual Mediterranean lakes under future climate scenarios. These are, however, of crucial importance to steer preservation strategies on the relevant catchment-scale. Here we present the first projections of water level and -temperature of the Prespa Lakes covering the period 2071-2100. These lakes are of global significance for biodiversity, and of great regional socio-economic importance as a water resource and tourist attraction. Impact projections are assessed by the Regional Climate Model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global climate model MPI-ESM-LR under two RCP future emissions scenarios, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, with the simulations carried out in the framework of EURO-CORDEX. Temperature, evapo(transpi)ration and

  19. Renewable Energy Law or quota? Market integration of renewable energies in the future; EEG oder Quote? Die Zukunft der Marktintegration erneuerbarer Energien

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertram, Franz [Internationales Wirtschaftsforum Regenerative Energien (IWR), Muenster (Germany)

    2013-05-15

    The expansion of renewable energies figures at the centre of the energy policy debate in Germany. On the one hand this has been a success story over the past years, as is reflected by corresponding increases in electricity production and a marked increase in the capacity of renewable energy production. On the hand the development of the reallocation charge under the Renewable Energy Law (EEG), along with other challenges associated with the energy turnaround such as the expansion of the networks, have evoked fundamental criticism against the EEG. This provokes the question as to whether feed-in rates or quotas are the better means of achieving the set expansion goals for renewable energies. A fundamental analysis of the systems used within the EU for managing renewable energies shows that the majority of member states rely on feed-in models and that they fare better in terms of achieving their goals than do countries with quota models. For Germany's future it would therefore appear advisable to expand the existing EEG system by addressing the demand side and to give it a significantly more efficient design.

  20. No 2943. Project of law relative to nuclear transparency and safety; N. 2943. Projet de loi relatif a la transparence et a la securite en matiere nucleaire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-03-15

    This project of law comprises 5 titles dealing with: 1 - general dispositions: definition and scope of nuclear safety, security, radiation protection, operators liability, facilities in concern; 2 - the high nuclear safety authority: role and duties; 3 - public information in the domain of nuclear safety and radiation protection: information right of the public, local information commissions, high committee for nuclear safety transparency and information; 4 - basic nuclear facilities and transport of radioactive materials: applicable rules, police controls and measures, penal dispositions (investigations, sanctions); 5 - miscellaneous dispositions: changes made with respect to previous legislative texts. (J.S.)

  1. Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet – Part 2: Projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Quiquet

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2013 to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs. The MAR climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB-elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9% at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0% at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs for sea level contributions are larger than the "no feedback" case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a~perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicates that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

  2. Business Law

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Föh, Kennet Fischer; Mandøe, Lene; Tinten, Bjarke

    Business Law is a translation of the 2nd edition of Erhvervsjura - videregående uddannelser. It is an educational textbook for the subject of business law. The textbook covers all important topic?s within business law such as the Legal System, Private International Law, Insolvency Law, Contract law...

  3. Projecting the effect of changes in smoking and obesity on future life expectancy in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preston, Samuel H; Stokes, Andrew; Mehta, Neil K; Cao, Bochen

    2014-02-01

    We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010-2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and age-25 obesity status observed in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-2006. Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer. We find that changes in both smoking and obesity are expected to have large effects on U.S. mortality. For males, the reductions in smoking have larger effects than the rise in obesity throughout the projection period. By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.83 years from the combined effects. Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.09 years expected by 2040.

  4. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Woo Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

  5. Divorced women at retirement: projections of economic well-being in the near future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butrica, B A; Iams, H M

    2000-01-01

    The Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) data system projects retirement income for persons retiring in the 1990s through 2020. Using those data, we examine the economic well-being of divorced women at retirement. The MINT data system improves upon previous estimates of Social Security benefits by: Measuring and projecting years of marriage to determine if the 10-year requirement has been met, Projecting lifetime earnings until retirement and eligibility for Social Security retirement benefits, and Estimating lifetime earnings of former spouses. MINT also makes independent projections of each retiree's income from pensions, assets, and earnings (for working beneficiaries). As a result of changes in marital patterns, MINT projects that the proportion of women who are divorced will increase. At the same time, the proportion of those women who are eligible for auxiliary benefits is projected to decrease, for two main reasons. First, changes in women's earnings and work patterns result in more women receiving retired-worker benefits based on their own earnings. Second, an increased number of divorced women will not meet the 10-year marriage requirement for auxiliary benefits. Despite the projected decrease over time in eligibility rates for auxiliary benefits, the level of Social Security benefits is projected to change little between the older and younger birth cohorts of divorced women entering retirement. According to the MINT data, the most vulnerable of divorced women will be those who have not met the 10-year marriage requirement. Poverty rates will be higher for them than for all other divorced women. This group of divorced women is projected to grow as more and more women divorce from shorter marriages. With more women divorcing and with fewer divorced women meeting the 10-year marriage requirement, the proportion of economically vulnerable aged women will increase when the baby boom retires. Further research is warranted on this long neglected subject

  6. Future changes in precipitation over East Asia projected by the global atmospheric model MRI-AGCM3.2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusunoki, Shoji

    2017-02-01

    We conducted global warming projections using global atmospheric models with high-horizontal resolution of 20-km (MRI-AGCM3.2S, the 20-km model) and 60-km (MRI-AGCM3.2H, the 60-km model) grid sizes. For the present-day climate of 21 years from 1983 to 2003, models were forced with observed historical sea surface temperatures (SST). For the future climate of 21 years from 2079 to 2099, models were forced with future SST distributions projected by the models of the Fifth phase of Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Ensemble simulations for four different SST distributions and three different cumulus convection schemes were conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of projection. The simulations consistently project the increase of precipitation over eastern China for almost all months. In June, precipitation decreases over Japan and increases over the ocean to the south of Japan. The geographical distribution of precipitation change tends to depend relatively on the cumulus convection scheme and horizontal resolution of models rather than on SST distributions. The time evolution of pentad mean precipitation over Japan indicates the delay in the onset of Japanese rainy season in June. This delay can be attributed to the decrease of water vapor transport toward Japan associated with the southward shift of the subtropical high. Change in the subtropical high can be interpreted as the southward shift of the local Hadley circulation. The intensity of precipitation increases over most part of East Asia, while the possibility of drought will increase over Japan, the East China Sea and the area to the south of Japan.

  7. Future Changes Projections of Atmospheric Circulation and Precipitation and Temperature Patterns Over South America in Austral Summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimizu, M. H.; Cavalcanti, I. F.

    2012-12-01

    Atmospheric circulation is primarily driven by temperature gradients across the globe due to differential heating of Earth's surface which leads to a surplus of energy in the tropics and a deficit in the high latitudes. However, due to global warming, changes in atmospheric circulation are expected, which could result in modifications also in precipitation pattern. There are some evidences of changes in atmospheric circulation, such as the expansion of tropical belt and the poleward shift of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, such as jet streams. These changes can be enhanced in a scenario with increasing greenhouse gases concentration. The objective of this study was to analyze future changes of atmospheric circulation and precipitation and temperature patterns in the austral summer over South America under Representative Pathway Concentration 8.5 (RCP 8.5) emission scenario. This evaluation was made according to model projections based on the coordinated climate change experiments defined by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Historical simulations were used to evaluate model performance in reproduce main climatic features over South America in the Austral Summer. This analysis showed that some models perform better than others, with a wide range of difference between simulations and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim data sets. In general, the models captured the main features of Austral Summer such as the northwest-southeast precipitation band associated with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and the anticyclonic circulation at high levels related to Bolivian High. The projections from different models pointed out in general to a reduction of precipitation, however the signal was not the same over all the continent and for all models. For example, Met Office's HadGEM2-ES projection indicated a reduction of precipitation in most of

  8. Future of water resources in the Aral Sea Region, Central Asia - Reality-checked climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asokan, Shilpa M.; Destouni, Georgia

    2014-05-01

    The future of water resources in a region invariably depends on its historic as well as present water use management policy. In order to understand the past hydro-climatic conditions and changes, one needs to analyze observation data and their implications for climate and hydrology, such as Temperature, Precipitation, Runoff and Evapotranspiration in the region. In addition to the changes in climate, human re-distribution of water through land- and water­use changes is found to significantly alter the water transfer from land to atmosphere through an increase or decrease in evapotranspiration. The Aral region in Central Asia, comprising the Aral Sea Drainage Basin and the Aral Sea, is an example case where the human induced changes in water-use have led to one of the worst environmental disasters of our time, the desiccation of the Aral Sea. Identification of the historical hydro-climatic changes that have happened in this region and their drivers is required before one can project future changes to water and its availability in the landscape. Knowledge of the future of water resources in the Aral region is needed for planning to meet increasing water and food demands of the growing population in conjunction with ecosystem sustainability. In order to project future scenarios of water on land, the Global Climate Model (GCM) ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) was analyzed for their performance against hydrologically important, basin-scale observational climate and hydrological datasets. We found that the ensemble mean of 22 GCMs over-estimated the observed temperature by about 1°C for the historic period of 1961-1990. For the future extreme climate scenario RCP8.5 the increase in temperature was projected to be about 5°C by 2070-2099, the accuracy of which is questionable from identified biases of GCMs and their ensemble results compared with observations for the period 1961-1990. In particular, the water balance components

  9. The future of the Canadian oil sands: Engineering and project management advances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madden, Peter; Morawski, Jacek

    2010-09-15

    Production technology and project management developments in Canada's oil sands industry, in the context of AMEC's experience as EPCM service provider, are discussed. Effective project management systems and workfront planning are critical to achieve cost and schedule targets and optimum construction execution. Construction Work Packages divide work into discrete pieces and Construction Work Execution Plans influence scheduling of engineering and procurement deliverables. AMEC's Engineering Data Warehouse works with intelligent engineering design tools to ensure information related to a piece of equipment is consistent across all systems. HSSE systems are proactively developed and AMEC's progressive improvement in safety performance is demonstrated.

  10. Nowhere to invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia projected to disappear under future climate scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas.

  11. Nowhere to invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia projected to disappear under future climate scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhonglin Xu

    Full Text Available Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050 climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas.

  12. Projected near-future CO2 levels increase activity and alter defensive behaviours in the tropical squid Idiosepius pygmaeus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blake L. Spady

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Carbon dioxide (CO2 levels projected to occur in the oceans by the end of this century cause a range of behavioural effects in fish, but whether other highly active marine organisms, such as cephalopods, are similarly affected is unknown. We tested the effects of projected future CO2 levels (626 and 956 µatm on the behaviour of male two-toned pygmy squid, Idiosepius pygmaeus. Exposure to elevated CO2 increased the number of active individuals by 19–25% and increased movement (number of line-crosses by nearly 3 times compared to squid at present-day CO2. Squid vigilance and defensive behaviours were also altered by elevated CO2 with >80% of individuals choosing jet escape responses over defensive arm postures in response to a visual startle stimulus, compared with 50% choosing jet escape responses at control CO2. In addition, more escape responses were chosen over threat behaviours in body pattern displays at elevated CO2 and individuals were more than twice as likely to use ink as a defence strategy at 956 µatm CO2, compared with controls. Increased activity could lead to adverse effects on energy budgets as well as increasing visibility to predators. A tendency to respond to a stimulus with escape behaviours could increase survival, but may also be energetically costly and could potentially lead to more chases by predators compared with individuals that use defensive postures. These results demonstrate that projected future ocean acidification affects the behaviours of a tropical squid species.

  13. Weather and age-gender effects on the projection of future emergency ambulance demand in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Poh-Chin; Wong, Ho-Ting

    2015-03-01

    An accurate projection for ambulance demand is essential to enable better resource planning for the future that strives to either maintain current levels of services or reconsider future standards and expectations. More than 2 million cases of emergency room attendance in 2008 were obtained from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority to project the demand for its ambulance services in 2036. The projection of ambulance demand in 2036 was computed in consideration of changes in the age-gender structure between 2008 and 2036. The quadratic relation between average daily temperature and daily ambulance demand in 2036 was further explored by including and excluding age-gender demographic changes. Without accounting for changes in the age-gender structure, the 2036 ambulance demand for age groups of 65 and above were consistently underestimated (by 38%-65%), whereas those of younger age groups were overestimated (by 6%-37%). Moreover, changes in the 2008 to 2036 age-gender structure also shift upward and emphasize relationships between average daily temperature and daily ambulance demand at both ends of the quadratic U-shaped curve. Our study reveals a potential societal implication of ageing population on the demand for ambulance services. © 2012 APJPH.

  14. High-Energy Physics Strategies and Future Large-Scale Projects

    CERN Document Server

    Zimmermann, F

    2015-01-01

    We sketch the actual European and international strategies and possible future facilities. In the near term the High Energy Physics (HEP) community will fully exploit the physics potential of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) through its high-luminosity upgrade (HL-LHC). Post-LHC options include a linear e+e- collider in Japan (ILC) or at CERN (CLIC), as well as circular lepton or hadron colliders in China (CepC/SppC) and Europe (FCC). We conclude with linear and circular acceleration approaches based on crystals, and some perspectives for the far future of accelerator-based particle physics.

  15. High-energy physics strategies and future large-scale projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zimmermann, F.

    2015-07-15

    We sketch the actual European and international strategies and possible future facilities. In the near term the High Energy Physics (HEP) community will fully exploit the physics potential of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) through its high-luminosity upgrade (HL-LHC). Post-LHC options include a linear e{sup +}e{sup −} collider in Japan (ILC) or at CERN (CLIC), as well as circular lepton or hadron colliders in China (CepC/SppC) and Europe (FCC). We conclude with linear and circular acceleration approaches based on crystals, and some perspectives for the far future of accelerator-based particle physics.

  16. Statistical downscaling and projection of future temperature and precipitation change in middle catchment of Sutlej River Basin, India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Dharmaveer Singh; Sanjay K Jain; R D Gupta

    2015-06-01

    Ensembles of two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CGCM3 and HadCM3, are used to project future maximum temperature (Max), minimum temperature (Min) and precipitation in a part of Sutlej River Basin, northwestern Himalayan region, India. Large scale atmospheric variables of CGCM3 and HadCM3 under different emission scenarios and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis datasets are downscaled using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). Variability and changes in Max, Min and precipitation under scenarios A1B and A2 of CGCM3 model and A2 and B2 of HadCM3 model are presented for future periods: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The study reveals rise in annual average Max, Min and precipitation under scenarios A1B and A2 for CGCM3 model as well as under A2 and B2 scenarios for HadCM3 model in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Increase in mean monthly Min is also observed for all months of the year under all scenarios of both the models. This is followed by decrease in Max during June, July August and September. However, the model projects rise in precipitation in months of July, August and September under A1B and A2 scenarios of CGCM3 model and A2 and B2 of HadCM3 model for future periods.

  17. Law project on the energy policy direction; Projet de loi d'orientation sur l'energie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raffarin, J.P.; Sarkozy, N

    2004-05-01

    The law of the energy direction aims to define, in the first article, the objectives and the directions of the french energy policy and to complete the today dispositions in matter of energy. The first part is devoted to the energy demand control and presents a system of energy saving certificates, the thermal regulation increasing of buildings and a better information of the consumers. The second part promotes the renewable energies development. (A.L.B.)

  18. Changing vessel routes could significantly reduce the cost of future offshore wind projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samoteskul, Kateryna; Firestone, Jeremy; Corbett, James; Callahan, John

    2014-08-01

    With the recent emphasis on offshore wind energy Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP) has become one of the main frameworks used to plan and manage the increasingly complex web of ocean and coastal uses. As wind development becomes more prevalent, existing users of the ocean space, such as commercial shippers, will be compelled to share their historically open-access waters with these projects. Here, we demonstrate the utility of using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to support siting decisions within a CMSP framework. In this study, we assume that large-scale offshore wind development will take place in the US Mid-Atlantic within the next decades. We then evaluate whether building projects nearshore or far from shore would be more cost-effective. Building projects nearshore is assumed to require rerouting of the commercial vessel traffic traveling between the US Mid-Atlantic ports by an average of 18.5 km per trip. We focus on less than 1500 transits by large deep-draft vessels. We estimate that over 29 years of the study, commercial shippers would incur an additional $0.2 billion (in 2012$) in direct and indirect costs. Building wind projects closer to shore where vessels used to transit would generate approximately $13.4 billion (in 2012$) in savings. Considering the large cost savings, modifying areas where vessels transit needs to be included in the portfolio of policies used to support the growth of the offshore wind industry in the US.

  19. 78 FR 26319 - Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill; Proposal of Future Early Restoration Projects and Environmental Reviews

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-06

    ... early restoration projects that will provide meaningful benefits to accelerate restoration in the Gulf... resource services for the public's benefit while the longer-term process of fully assessing injury and... review of a draft, a Phase I Early Restoration Plan/Environmental Assessment (Phase I ERP) in April 2012...

  20. Report on projected future climate of the Goodwin Creek experimental watershed, MS

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report is one of several reports that provide technical information on projected climate change at selected ARS experimental watersheds across the continental United States and for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The report is an attachment to the main report of the multi-location pro...

  1. Projecting Serials Costs: Banking on the Past to Buy for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ketcham, Lee; Born, Kathleen

    1994-01-01

    Reports on a survey of international periodicals' cost history, country of origin information, and currency exchange rate to assist in identifying trends in the cost of periodicals and to project costs for the coming year. Tables present cost data by subject, continent/country or origin, and type of library. (SLW)

  2. Research on the Child Development Project: Current Status and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battistich, Victor; Solomon, Daniel

    1989-01-01

    Reports on the current status of the Child Development Project (San Ramon, California). States that major concerns focus upon validity of measures and criterion validity. Notes that there are indications that the program is being implemented and children's attitudes are being affected. Predicts additional teacher questionnaire measures and the…

  3. The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J M; Fahey, David W; Daniel, John S; McFarland, Mack; Andersen, Stephen O

    2009-07-01

    The consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades in response to regulation of ozone depleting gases under the Montreal Protocol. The projected increases result primarily from sustained growth in demand for refrigeration, air-conditioning (AC) and insulating foam products in developing countries assuming no new regulation of HFC consumption or emissions. New HFC scenarios are presented based on current hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) consumption in leading applications, patterns of replacements of HCFCs by HFCs in developed countries, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Global HFC emissions significantly exceed previous estimates after 2025 with developing country emissions as much as 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050. Global HFC emissions in 2050 are equivalent to 9-19% (CO(2)-eq. basis) of projected global CO(2) emissions in business-as-usual scenarios and contribute a radiative forcing equivalent to that from 6-13 years of CO(2) emissions near 2050. This percentage increases to 28-45% compared with projected CO(2) emissions in a 450-ppm CO(2) stabilization scenario. In a hypothetical scenario based on a global cap followed by 4% annual reductions in consumption, HFC radiative forcing is shown to peak and begin to decline before 2050.

  4. Pathways to the Future: Community Dialogues on Adaptive Environmental Management Through Scenario Projection in Google Maps

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervoort, J.M.; Kok, K.; Lammeren, van R.J.A.; Janssen, R.; Veldkamp, A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents research on the potential of interactive media for regional community dialogues on future uncertainties and complexities in coupled human and natural systems. More adaptive perspectives on natural resources management are needed to respond to rapid environmental and social change

  5. Compendium on Financing of Higher Education: Final Report of the Financing the Students' Future Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Bethan; Charonis, George-Konstantinos; Haaristo, Hanna-Stella; Maurer, Moritz; Kaiser, Florian; Siegrist, Rahel; McVitty, Debbie; Gruber, Angelika; Heerens, Nik; Xhomaqi, Brikena; Nötzl, Tina; Semjonov, Meeli; Primožic, Rok

    2013-01-01

    Higher education plays a vital role in society and the quality, accessibility, and form of higher education is highly dependent on financing. Financing of higher education is conceived to be of central importance for the future creation and dissemination of knowledge and research. Therefore, the financing of higher education is a topic that has…

  6. University, Town of Blacksburg partner on FutureForward Blacksburg project

    OpenAIRE

    Fay, Patrick

    2010-01-01

    The university and the Town of Blacksburg have recently submitted a joint application named "FutureForward Blacksburg" for Google's "Think Big with a Gig" experiment to build ultra-high speed fiber to the home networks in a number of locations across the country.

  7. Models and Techniques That Project an Arid Greenhouse Future Also Project a Wet Last Glacial Maximum, Contrary to Pollen and Dust Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheff, J.; Seager, R.; Coats, S.; Liu, H.

    2015-12-01

    Precipitation (P) and Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (PET) from global climate models (GCMs) have been used to infer that Earth's land areas will dry out under future greenhouse warming outside of the high latitudes. This has been argued using simulated declines in both the aridity index P/PET (by the present author among others) and the Palmer drought index, driven by warming-powered PET increases. However, this picture is at odds with the broad paleoclimate tenet that greenhouse eras in fact appear "wet" on land while cold intervals appear "dry." Here, we show that the same GCMs which project widespread P/PET declines for the greenhouse future also project fairly widespread P/PET increases (i.e. "wetting") for the last glacial maximum (LGM), when CO2 was half present levels and snow and ice were extensive. Yet, global pollen and dust records of the LGM suggest mostly "drier"-looking vegetation patterns than today, as we also review here. Thus, either the GCMs' P and/or PET responses to past global change are flawed, or, P/PET change is not relevant for the vegetation response to CO2-driven climate change. Either way, this calls into question the ecological relevance of the above "drying-out" conclusions. We also show parallel results for the Palmer index, and investigate whether the P/PET results seem any more relevant for lakes and other abiotic wetness indicators than for vegetation.

  8. Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Deanna H.; Blaustein, Andrew R.

    2016-01-01

    Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for

  9. Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Gisselle Yang; Olson, Deanna H; Blaustein, Andrew R

    2016-01-01

    Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for

  10. The Future Organization of Danish Electricity Market for Integrating DERs - a View of FlexPower Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Yang; Zhang, Chunyu; Ding, Yi;

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a view of the Danish FlexPower project to reform the existing electricity market by coordinating vast Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) for integration in future scenarios. Aiming to maximize the preservation of the existing market structure, Aggregator, the key player...... in mobilizing small-scale DERs to participate in the existing electricity market, is proposed in this paper to cope with the day-ahead, intra-day and regulating power market. Possible future organizations of different time-scale markets are also introduced and discussed with the precise roles...... and responsibilities of Aggregator. It is seen that the most appropriate function for Aggregator’s capabilities is to cluster DERs as an expended ancillary service. In addition, the interactions with current market actors are introduced in detail....

  11. Large-scale water projects in the developing world: Revisiting the past and looking to the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivakumar, Bellie; Chen, Ji

    2014-05-01

    During the past half a century or so, the developing world has been witnessing a significant increase in freshwater demands due to a combination of factors, including population growth, increased food demand, improved living standards, and water quality degradation. Since there exists significant variability in rainfall and river flow in both space and time, large-scale storage and distribution of water has become a key means to meet these increasing demands. In this regard, large dams and water transfer schemes (including river-linking schemes and virtual water trades) have been playing a key role. While the benefits of such large-scale projects in supplying water for domestic, irrigation, industrial, hydropower, recreational, and other uses both in the countries of their development and in other countries are undeniable, concerns on their negative impacts, such as high initial costs and damages to our ecosystems (e.g. river environment and species) and socio-economic fabric (e.g. relocation and socio-economic changes of affected people) have also been increasing in recent years. These have led to serious debates on the role of large-scale water projects in the developing world and on their future, but the often one-sided nature of such debates have inevitably failed to yield fruitful outcomes thus far. The present study aims to offer a far more balanced perspective on this issue. First, it recognizes and emphasizes the need for still additional large-scale water structures in the developing world in the future, due to the continuing increase in water demands, inefficiency in water use (especially in the agricultural sector), and absence of equivalent and reliable alternatives. Next, it reviews a few important success and failure stories of large-scale water projects in the developing world (and in the developed world), in an effort to arrive at a balanced view on the future role of such projects. Then, it discusses some major challenges in future water planning

  12. Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of summer rainfall in Taiwan: Contributions from different types of rain events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wan-Ru; Chang, Ya-Hui; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Cheng, Chao-Tzuen; Tu, Chia-Ying

    2016-12-01

    Summer rainfall in Taiwan is composed of four types of rain events: tropical cyclone (TC), frontal convection (FC), diurnal convection (DC), and other southerly convection (SC) that propagates from the nearby ocean. In this study, we accessed the present-day simulation (1979-2003) and future projection (2075-2099, the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) of rainfall in Taiwan by using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model driven by the global High Resolution Atmospheric Model. The results indicated that the dynamical downscaling process adds value to the present-day simulation of summer rainfall in Taiwan and the contribution of different types of rain events. It was found that summer rainfall in Taiwan will increase in a warmer future and that this change was mainly due to an increase in SC rainfall (i.e., light rainfall event). The following trends in Taiwan rainfall were also predicted in a warmer future: (1) SC rainy days will increase because the intensified monsoonal flow facilitates the propagation of more SC toward Taiwan, (2) TC rainy days will decrease as the Western North Pacific subtropical high extends southwestward and prevents TC systems from passing over Taiwan, (3) DC rainy days will decrease in response to the increased local thermal stability, and (4) FC rainy days will show no significant changes. Moreover, all types of rainfall are projected to become more intense in the future due to the increased moisture supply in a warmer climate. These findings highlight how the rainfall characteristics in East Asia may change in response to climate change.

  13. [Telemedicine in Bolivia: RAFT-Altiplano project, experiences, future prospects, and recommendations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas, Alejandro; Ugalde, Miguel; Vargas, Reynaldo; Narvaez, Ramiro; Geissbuhler, Antoine

    2014-01-01

    The objective of the RAFT-Altiplano project (RAFT: Réseau en Afrique Francophone pour la Télémédecine, or African Francophone Telemedicine Network) is to evaluate the viability, potential, and risks of implementing and developing a telemedicine network in the context of a developing country-specifically, the Altiplano region of Bolivia-to improve access to medical care and continuing education in a rural area. The activities described in this report took place between 2011 and 2013. Digital telemedicine equipment was donated to the health centers and a Microsoft®-based platform capable of integration with other technologies (using standardized formats) was developed to manage documents and clinical content electronically. Health professionals were trained in teleconsultation and the teleconsultation workflow was designed. The tele-education system used is Dudal, which requires only a small bandwidth. After three years of implementation, an organized working structure of teleconsultation and tele-education tools, adapted to the Latin American context, is now in place and connections have been established with hospitals, institutions, and health centers. The project has improved access to specialized medical care in remote health centers and third-level hospitals in urban areas, and it has become the foundation for development of the national project "TeleSalud for Bolivia" promoted by the Ministry of Health, which involves use of the new Bolivian satellite, Túpac Katari. It is viable to develop and set up telemedicine tools to serve the population in remote regions of Bolivia when they are made available to government and municipal health institutions and communication between them and the health centers takes place in a coordinated manner. The sharing of experiences, challenges, and risks encountered is very useful in designing and implementing the telemedicine project "TeleSalud for Bolivia" on a national scale.

  14. The 3,000 rice genomes project: new opportunities and challenges for future rice research

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Jia-Yang; Wang, Jun; Zeigler, Robert S.

    2014-01-01

    Rice is the world’s most important staple grown by millions of small-holder farmers. Sustaining rice production relies on the intelligent use of rice diversity. The 3,000 Rice Genomes Project is a giga-dataset of publically available genome sequences (averaging 14× depth of coverage) derived from 3,000 accessions of rice with global representation of genetic and functional diversity. The seed of these accessions is available from the International Rice Genebank Collection. Together, they are ...

  15. The CO2 inhibition of terrestrial isoprene emission significantly affects future ozone projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Pyle

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Simulations of future tropospheric composition often include substantial increases in biogenic isoprene emissions arising from the Arrhenius-like leaf emission response and warmer surface temperatures, and from enhanced vegetation productivity in response to temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, a number of recent laboratory and field data have suggested a direct inhibition of leaf isoprene production by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, notwithstanding isoprene being produced from precursor molecules that include some of the primary products of carbon assimilation. The cellular mechanism that underlies the decoupling of leaf photosynthesis and isoprene production still awaits a full explanation but accounting for this observation in a dynamic vegetation model that contains a semi-mechanistic treatment of isoprene emissions has been shown to change future global isoprene emission estimates notably. Here we use these estimates in conjunction with a chemistry-climate model to compare the effects of isoprene simulations without and with a direct CO2-inhibition on late 21st century O3 and OH levels. The impact on surface O3 was significant. Including the CO2-inhibition of isoprene resulted in opposing responses in polluted (O3 decreases of up to 10 ppbv vs. less polluted (O3 increases of up to 10 ppbv source regions, due to isoprene nitrate and peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN chemistry. OH concentration increased with relatively lower future isoprene emissions, decreasing methane lifetime by ~7 months. Our simulations underline the large uncertainties in future chemistry and climate studies due to biogenic emission patterns and emphasize the problems of using globally averaged climate metrics to quantify the atmospheric impact of reactive, heterogeneously distributed substances.

  16. NASA Global Hawk Project Update and Future Plans: A New Tool for Earth Science Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naftel, Chris

    2009-01-01

    Science objectives include: First demonstration of the Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) for NASA and NOAA Earth science research and applications; Validation of instruments on-board the Aura satellite; Exploration of trace gases, aerosols, and dynamics of remote upper Troposphere/lower Stratosphere regions; Sample polar vortex fragments and atmospheric rivers; Risk reduction for future missions that will study hurricanes and atmospheric rivers.

  17. The CO2 inhibition of terrestrial isoprene emission significantly affects future ozone projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, P. J.; Arneth, A.; Schurgers, G.; Zeng, G.; Pyle, J. A.

    2009-04-01

    Simulations of future tropospheric composition often include substantial increases in biogenic isoprene emissions arising from the Arrhenius-like leaf emission response and warmer surface temperatures, and from enhanced vegetation productivity in response to temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, a number of recent laboratory and field data have suggested a direct inhibition of leaf isoprene production by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, notwithstanding isoprene being produced from precursor molecules that include some of the primary products of carbon assimilation. The cellular mechanism that underlies the decoupling of leaf photosynthesis and isoprene production still awaits a full explanation but accounting for this observation in a dynamic vegetation model that contains a semi-mechanistic treatment of isoprene emissions has been shown to change future global isoprene emission estimates notably. Here we use these estimates in conjunction with a chemistry-climate model to compare the effects of isoprene simulations without and with a direct CO2-inhibition on late 21st century O3 and OH levels. The impact on surface O3 was significant. Including the CO2-inhibition of isoprene resulted in opposing responses in polluted (O3 decreases of up to 10 ppbv) vs. less polluted (O3 increases of up to 10 ppbv) source regions, due to isoprene nitrate and peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN) chemistry. OH concentration increased with relatively lower future isoprene emissions, decreasing methane lifetime by ~7 months (6.6%). Our simulations underline the large uncertainties in future chemistry and climate studies due to biogenic emission patterns and emphasize the problems of using globally averaged climate metrics (such as global radiative forcing) to quantify the atmospheric impact of reactive, heterogeneously distributed substances.

  18. Assessment of future drought in Southwest China based on CMIP5 multimodel projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lin; Chen, Wen; Zhou, Wen

    2014-09-01

    In the last decade, a series of severe and extensive droughts have swept across Southwest China, resulting in tremendous economic losses, deaths, and disruption to society. Consequently, this study is motivated by the paramount importance of assessing future changes in drought in Southwest China. Precipitation is likely to decrease over most parts of Southwest China around the beginning of the century, followed by widespread precipitation increases; the increase in potential evapotranspiration (PET), due to the joint effects of increased temperature and surface net radiation and decreased relative humidity, will overwhelm the whole region throughout the entire 21st century. In comparative terms, the enhancement of PET will outweigh that of precipitation, particularly under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, resulting in intensified drought. Generally, the drying tendency will be in the southeast portion, whereas the mountainous region in the northwest will become increasingly wetter owing to abundant precipitation increases. Droughts classified as moderate/severe according to historical standards will become the norm in the 2080s under RCP4.5/RCP8.5. Future drought changes will manifest different characteristics depending on the time scale: the magnitude of change at a time scale of 48 months is nearly twice as great as that at 3 months. Furthermore, we will see that not only will incidences of severe and extreme drought increase dramatically in the future, but extremely wet events will also become more probable.

  19. Multidecadal Trends in Large-Scale Annual Mean SATa Based on CMIP5 Historical Simulations and Future Projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nan Xing

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 results, multidecadal variations and trends in annual mean surface air temperature anomalies (SATa at global, hemispheric, and hemispheric land and ocean scales in the past and under the future scenarios of two representative concentration pathways (RCPs are analyzed. Fifteen models are selected based on their performances in capturing the temporal variability, long-term trend, multidecadal variations, and trends in global annual mean SATa. Observational data analysis shows that the multidecadal variations in annual mean SATa of the land and ocean in the northern hemisphere (NH and of the ocean in the southern hemisphere (SH are similar to those of the global mean, showing an increase during the 1900–1944 and 1971–2000 periods, and flattening or even cooling during the 1945–1970 and 2001–2013 periods. These observed characteristics are basically reproduced by the models. However, SATa over SH land show an increase during the 1945–1970 period, which differs from the other hemispheric scales, and this feature is not captured well by the models. For the recent hiatus period (2001–2013, the projected trends of BCC-CSM1-1-m, CMCC-CM, GFDL-ESM2M, and NorESM1-ME at the global and hemispheric scales are closest to the observations based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting that these four models have better projection capability in SATa. Because these four models are better at simulating and projecting the multidecadal trends of SATa, they are selected to analyze future SATa variations at the global and hemispheric scales during the 2006–2099 period. The selected multi-model ensemble (MME projected trends in annual mean SATa for the globe, NH, and SH under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5 are 0.17 (0.29 °C, 0.22 (0.36 °C, and 0.11 (0.23 °C·decade−1 in the 21st century, respectively. These values are significantly lower than the projections of CMIP5 MME without model

  20. SOAP based web services and their future role in VO projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topf, F.; Jacquey, C.; Génot, V.; Cecconi, B.; André, N.; Zhang, T. L.; Kallio, E.; Lammer, H.; Facsko, G.; Stöckler, R.; Khodachenko, M.

    2011-10-01

    Modern state-of-the-art web services are from crucial importance for the interoperability of different VO tools existing in the planetary community. SOAP based web services assure the interconnectability between different data sources and tools by providing a common protocol for communication. This paper will point out a best practice approach with the Automated Multi-Dataset Analysis Tool (AMDA) developed by CDPP, Toulouse and the provision of VEX/MAG data from a remote database located at IWF, Graz. Furthermore a new FP7 project IMPEx will be introduced with a potential usage example of AMDA web services in conjunction with simulation models.

  1. Downscaling future climate projections to the watershed scale: a north San Francisco Bay estuary case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micheli, Elisabeth; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Weiss, Stuart; Kennedy, Morgan

    2012-01-01

    We modeled the hydrology of basins draining into the northern portion of the San Francisco Bay Estuary (North San Pablo Bay) using a regional water balance model (Basin Characterization Model; BCM) to estimate potential effects of climate change at the watershed scale. The BCM calculates water balance components, including runoff, recharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and stream flow, based on climate, topography, soils and underlying geology, and the solar-driven energy balance. We downscaled historical and projected precipitation and air temperature values derived from weather stations and global General Circulation Models (GCMs) to a spatial scale of 270 m. We then used the BCM to estimate hydrologic response to climate change for four scenarios spanning this century (2000–2100). Historical climate patterns show that Marin’s coastal regions are typically on the order of 2 °C cooler and receive five percent more precipitation compared to the inland valleys of Sonoma and Napa because of marine influences and local topography. By the last 30 years of this century, North Bay scenarios project average minimum temperatures to increase by 1.0 °C to 3.1 °C and average maximum temperatures to increase by 2.1 °C to 3.4 °C (in comparison to conditions experienced over the last 30 years, 1981–2010). Precipitation projections for the 21st century vary between GCMs (ranging from 2 to 15% wetter than the 20th-century average). Temperature forcing increases the variability of modeled runoff, recharge, and stream discharge, and shifts hydrologic cycle timing. For both high- and low-rainfall scenarios, by the close of this century warming is projected to amplify late-season climatic water deficit (a measure of drought stress on soils) by 8% to 21%. Hydrologic variability within a single river basin demonstrated at the scale of subwatersheds may prove an important consideration for water managers in the face of climate change. Our results suggest that in arid

  2. Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Sumatra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, Miriam E; DeFries, Ruth; Pennington, Derric; Nelson, Erik; Ordway, Elsa M; Lewis, Jeremy; Koplitz, Shannon N; Mickley, Loretta J

    2015-01-01

    Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change over the last few decades as forests and peatswamps have been cleared for more intensively managed land uses, including oil palm and timber plantations. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and managing land for more intensive uses, and the related emissions affect public health by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations and adding to global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we examine emissions from fires associated with land use clearing and land management on the Indonesian island of Sumatra and the sensitivity of this fire activity to interannual meteorological variability. We find ~80% of 2005-2009 Sumatra emissions are associated with degradation or land use maintenance instead of immediate land use conversion, especially in dry years. We estimate Sumatra fire emissions from land use change and maintenance for the next two decades with five scenarios of land use change, the Global Fire Emissions Database Version 3, detailed 1-km2 land use change maps, and MODIS fire radiative power observations. Despite comprising only 16% of the original study area, we predict that 37-48% of future Sumatra emissions from land use change will occur in fuel-rich peatswamps unless this land cover type is protected effectively. This result means that the impact of fires on future air quality and climate in Equatorial Asia will be decided in part by the conservation status given to the remaining peatswamps on Sumatra. Results from this article will be implemented in an atmospheric transport model to quantify the public health impacts from the transport of fire emissions associated with future land use scenarios in Sumatra. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Pediatric Orthopaedic Workforce in 2014: Current Workforce and Projections for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawyer, Jeffrey R; Jones, Kerwyn C; Copley, Lawson A; Chambers, Stephanie

    2017-01-01

    The changing nature of the United States (US) health care system has prompted debate concerning the physician supply. The basic questions are: do we have an adequate number of surgeons to meet current demands and are we training the correct number of surgeons to meet future demands? The purpose of this analysis was to characterize the current pediatric orthopaedic workforce in terms of supply and demand, both present and future. Databases were searched (POSNA, SF Match, KID, MGMA) to determine the current pediatric orthopaedic workforce and workforce distribution, as well as pediatric orthopaedic demand. The number of active Pediatric Orthopaedic Society of North America (POSNA) members increased over the past 20 years, from 410 in 1993 to 653 in 2014 (155% increase); however, the density of POSNA members is not equally distributed, but correlates to population density. The number of estimated pediatric discharges, orthopaedic and nonorthopaedic, has remained relatively stable from 6,348,537 in 1997 to 5,850,184 in 2012. Between 2003 and 2013, the number of pediatric orthopaedic fellows graduating from Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education and non-Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education programs increased from 39 to 50 (29%), with a peak of 67 fellows (71%) in 2009. Although predicting the exact need for pediatric orthopaedic surgeons (POS) is impossible because of the complex interplay among macroeconomic, governmental, insurance, and local factors, some trends were identified: the supply of POS has increased, which may offset the expected numbers of experienced surgeons who will be leaving the workforce in the next 10 to 15 years; macroeconomic factors influencing demand for physician services, driven by gross domestic product and population growth, are expected to be stable in the near future; expansion of the scope of practice for POS is expected to continue; and further similar assessments are warranted. Level II-economic and

  4. Future projections of insured losses in the German private building sector following the A1B climatic change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Hattermann, F.; Pinto, J. G.; Ulbrich, U.; Böhm, U.; Born, K.; Büchner, M.; Donat, M. G.; Kücken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nissen, K.; Nocke, T.; Österle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Werner, P. C.; Burghoff, O.; Broecker, U.; Kubik, A.

    2012-04-01

    We present an overview of a complementary-approaches impact project dealing with the consequences of climate change for the natural hazard branch of the insurance industry in Germany. The project was conducted by four academic institutions together with the German Insurance Association (GDV) and finalized in autumn 2011. A causal chain is modeled that goes from global warming projections over regional meteorological impacts to regional economic losses for private buildings, hereby fully covering the area of Germany. This presentation will focus on wind storm related losses, although the method developed had also been applied in part to hail and flood impact losses. For the first time, the GDV supplied their collected set of insurance cases, dating back for decades, for such an impact study. These data were used to calibrate and validate event-based damage functions which in turn were driven by three different types of regional climate models to generate storm loss projections. The regional models were driven by a triplet of ECHAM5 experiments following the A1B scenario which were found representative in the recent ENSEMBLES intercomparison study. In our multi-modeling approach we used two types of regional climate models that conceptually differ at maximum: a dynamical model (CCLM) and a statistical model based on the idea of biased bootstrapping (STARS). As a third option we pursued a hybrid approach (statistical-dynamical downscaling). For the assessment of climate change impacts, the buildings' infrastructure and their economic value is kept at current values. For all three approaches, a significant increase of average storm losses and extreme event return levels in the German private building sector is found for future decades assuming an A1B-scenario. However, the three projections differ somewhat in terms of magnitude and regional differentiation. We have developed a formalism that allows us to express the combined effect of multi-source uncertainty on return

  5. Design Work for the High-Energy Storage Ring for Antiprotons of the Future GSI Project

    CERN Document Server

    Lehrach, Andreas; Boine-Frankenheim, Oliver; Bongardt, Klaus; Dietrich, J; Dolinskii, Alexei V; Eichhorn, Ralf; Gålnander, B; Hinterberger, Frank; Lorentz, Bernd; Maier, Rudolf; Martin, Siegfried; Prasuhn, Dieter; Reistad, Dag; Senichev, Yurij; Senicheva, Eugenia; Steck, Markus; Stockhorst, Hans; Tölle, Raimund; Zaplatin, Evgeny

    2005-01-01

    The High-Energy Storage Ring (HESR) of the future international Facility for Antiproton and Ion Research (FAIR) at GSI in Darmstadt is planned as an antiproton cooler and storage ring in the momentum range from 1.5 to 15 GeV/c. The design work for the HESR is organized by a consortium with scientists from FZ Jülich, GSI Darmstadt and TSL Uppsala. An important feature of the new facility is the combination of phase space cooled beams with internal targets, resulting in demanding beam parameter in two operation modes: high luminosity mode with beam intensities up to few times 1011

  6. Inter-decadal variations,causes and future projection of the Asian summer monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ding Yihui; Si Dong; Sun Ying; Liu Yanju; Song Yafang

    2014-01-01

    The present paper presents a concise summary of our recent studies on the Asian summer monsoon, with highting decadal and inter-decadal scales. The studies on the long-term variations of the Asian summer monsoon and its impacts on the change in the summer precipitation in China are reviewed. Moreover,recent changes in the Asian summer monsoon and summer precipitation in East Asia (including Meiyu precipitation) are discussed. Finally,the future changes of the Asian summer monsoon are also pointed out in this paper.

  7. [Population projection and its principal components: the future model of population in the province of Alicante].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman Mora, E

    1994-01-01

    "In this article we analyze the different demographic patterns defining the population in the province of Alicante [Spain]. The behaviour of the demographic factors in the past and in the present is studied here, and a series of models are put into practice in order to foresee the future pattern of population.... The result shows either the effect of a possible ageing in an already aged population, as is the case of the province of Alicante, or what the job market would have to endure if the above mentioned ageing took place, increased by the possibility of an inmigration of an older population." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE)

  8. Future changes in drought characteristics over Southern South America projected by a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, J. A.; Penalba, O. C.

    2013-05-01

    The impact of climate change on drought main characteristics (frequency, duration and severity) was assessed over Southern South America through the precipitation outputs from a multi-model ensemble of 15 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The Standardized Precipitation Index was used as a drought indicator, given its temporal flexibility and simplicity. Changes in drought characteristics were identified by the difference for early (2011-2040) and late (2071-2100) 21st century values with respect to the 1979-2008 baseline. In order to evaluate the multi-model outputs, model biases where identified through a comparison with the drought characteristics from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre database for the baseline period. Future climate projections under moderate- and high-emission scenarios showed that the occurrence of short-term and long-term droughts will be more frequent in the 21st century, with shorter durations and greater severities over much of the study area. This result is independent on the scenario considered, since no significant differences were observed on drought changes. Taking into account that in most of the region the multi-model ensemble tends to produce less number of droughts, with higher duration and lower severity, the future changes scenario might be even more dramatic. Therefore, Southern South America could experience more frequent water shortages with significant economic losses if proper adaptation measures are not proposed timely.

  9. Projections of Future Summer Weather in Seoul and Their Impacts on Urban Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. O.; Kim, J. H.; Yun, J. I.

    2015-12-01

    Climate departure from the past variability was projected to start in 2042 for Seoul. In order to understand the implication of climate departure in Seoul for urban agriculture, we evaluated the daily temperature for the June-September period from 2041 to 2070, which were projected by the RCP8.5 climate scenario. These data were analyzed with respect to climate extremes and their effects on growth of hot pepper (Capsicum annuum), one of the major crops in urban farming. The mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 2041-2070 approached to the 90th percentile in the past 30 years (1951- 1980). However, the frequency of extreme events such as heat waves and tropical nights appeared to exceed the past variability. While the departure of mean temperature might begin in or after 2040, the climate departure in the sense of extreme weather events seems already in progress. When the climate scenario data were applied to the growth and development of hot pepper, the departures of both planting date and harvest date are expected to follow those of temperature. However, the maximum duration for hot pepper cultivation, which is the number of days between the first planting and the last harvest, seems to have already deviated from the past variability.

  10. Streamflow timing of mountain rivers in Spain: Recent changes and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morán-Tejeda, Enrique; Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge; López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio; Rahman, Kazi; Beniston, Martin

    2014-09-01

    Changes in streamflow timing are studied in 27 mountain rivers in Spain, in the context of climate warming. The studied rivers are characterized by a highflows period in spring due to snowmelt, although differences in the role of snow and consequently in the timing of flows are observed amongst cases. We calculated for every year of the studied period (1976-2008) various hydrological indices that enable locating the timing of spring flows within the annual hydrologic regime, including the day of 75% of mass, and the day of spring maximum. The evolution of these indices was compared with that of seasonal precipitation and temperature, and trends in time were calculated. Results show a general negative trend in the studied indices which indicates that spring peaks due to snowmelt are shifting earlier within the hydrological year. Spring temperatures, which show a significant increasing trend, are the main co-variable responsible for the observed changes in the streamflow timing. In a second set of analyses we performed hydrological simulations with the SWAT model, in order to estimate changes in streamflow timing under projected warming temperatures. Projections show further shifting of spring peak flows along with a more pronounced low water level period in the summer. The simulations also allowed quantifying the role of snowfall-snowmelt on the observed changes in streamflow.

  11. FUTURE BACHELORS’ TECHNOLOGY OF PROJECT LEARNING IN DESIGN GROUPS AS A MEANS OF INNOVATIVE TEACHING ACTIVITIES SUBJECT’S TRAINING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. P. ZARECHNAYA

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the bachelor’s preparation, the basic conceptual idea of is to achieve efficiency and social and educational importance of integrative cultural and educational space as a system to ensure the teachers’ readiness to innovative professional work at school. The solution to this problem is in the competence-based approach to students’ design activity in the conditions of design groups as a means of mastering professionalvaluable innovative technologies of socialization of pupils and methodological tools of their motivation to the designer's creativity. The article notes that the process of mastering the future bachelors of professional competence in the design group based on the multidisciplinary integration and implemented in an environment of a complex interaction of its epistemological (scientifictheoretical and value (spiritual practice aspects. They are based on the integration of knowledge of different areas of science, the disclosure of the relationship and interdependence of general scientific, social, technological, aesthetic, economic, environmental, educational, psychological and other problems in the system of global problems of general and professional culture of the future teacher, teaching them values of subjectivation. Diversity and structure of such an interrelation and interdependence in project activities of students due to the specifics of scientific, aesthetic, design, technological, technical and economic means to achieve the desired, socially significant result of project activities. It also stems from the need of didactic thinking by students of dialectical nature monism categories and the principles of technology and aesthetics, and innovative teaching technologies and methods of students' teaching and the technological development of the world in accordance with the design principles of their development as active and creative subjects of social and labor relations. This article emphasizes

  12. Microbial and biogeochemical responses to projected future nitrate enrichment in the California upwelling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine Rose Marie Mackey

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Coastal California is a dynamic upwelling region where nitrogen (N and iron (Fe can both limit productivity and influence biogeochemistry over different spatial and temporal scales. With global change, the flux of nitrate from upwelling is expected to increase over the next century, potentially driving additional oceanic regions toward Fe limitation. In this study we explored the effect of changes in Fe/N ratio on native phytoplankton from five currently Fe-replete sites near the major California upwelling centers at Bodega Bay and Monterey Bay using nutrient addition incubation experiments. Despite the high nitrate levels (13-30 M in the upwelled water, phytoplankton at three of the five sites showed increased growth when 10 M nitrate was added. None of the sites showed enhanced growth following addition of 10 nM Fe. Nitrate additions favored slow sinking single-celled diatoms over faster sinking chain-forming diatoms, suggesting that future increases in nitrate flux could affect carbon and silicate export and alter grazer populations. In particular, solitary cells of Cylindrotheca were more abundant than the toxin-producing genus Pseudonitzschia following nitrate addition. These responses suggest the biogeochemistry of coastal California could change in response to future increases in nitrate, and multiple stressors like ocean acidification and hypoxia may further result in ecosystem shifts.

  13. Modelling the impacts of projected future climate change on water resources in north-west England

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the last two decades, the frequency of water resource drought in the UK, coupled with the more recent pan-European drought of 2003, has increased concern over changes in climate. Using the UKCIP02 Medium-High (SRES A2 scenario for 2070–2100, this study investigates the impact of climate change on the operation of the Integrated Resource Zone (IRZ, a complex conjunctive-use water supply system in north-western England. The results indicate that the contribution of individual sources to yield may change substantially but that overall yield is reduced by only 18%. Notwithstanding this significant effect on water supply, the flexibility of the system enables it to meet modelled demand for much of the time under the future climate scenario, even without a change in system management, but at significant expense for pumping additional abstraction from lake and borehole sources. This research provides a basis for the future planning and management of the complex water resource system in the north-west of England.

  14. Criminal Law

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langsted, Lars Bo; Garde, Peter; Greve, Vagn

    <> book contains a thorough description of Danish substantive criminal law, criminal procedure and execution of sanctions. The book was originally published as a monograph in the International Encyclopaedia of Laws/Criminal Law....... book contains a thorough description of Danish substantive criminal law, criminal procedure and execution of sanctions. The book was originally published as a monograph in the International Encyclopaedia of Laws/Criminal Law....

  15. Improvement of Self-Image; Public Law 89-10, Title I-Project 1939N, Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartog, John F.; Modlinger, Roy

    This report describes a Federally-financed project to improve the self-image of disadvantaged pupils living in two institutions for neglected children. After a week of orientation the children were exposed to 3 weeks of camping environment. Program activities included small group counseling, independent study, physical education, and music, drama…

  16. Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: Synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future Project (IPY-BTF)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Callaghan, Terry V.; Tweedie, Craig E.; Åkerman, Jonas

    2011-01-01

    opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming...

  17. Uncertainty in future agro-climate projections in the United States and benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Xu, Liyi; Snyder, Richard

    2016-05-01

    Scientific challenges exist on how to extract information from the wide range of projected impacts simulated by crop models driven by climate ensembles. A stronger focus is required to understand and identify the mechanisms and drivers of projected changes in crop yield. In this study, we investigate the robustness of future projections of five metrics relevant to agriculture stakeholders (accumulated frost days, dry days, growing season length, plant heat stress and start of field operations). We use a large ensemble of climate simulations by the MIT IGSM-CAM integrated assessment model that accounts for the uncertainty associated with different emissions scenarios, climate sensitivities, and representations of natural variability. By the end of the century, the US is projected to experience fewer frosts, a longer growing season, more heat stress and an earlier start of field operations—although the magnitude and even the sign of these changes vary greatly by regions. Projected changes in dry days are shown not to be robust. We highlight the important role of natural variability, in particular for changes in dry days (a precipitation-related index) and heat stress (a threshold index). The wide range of our projections compares well the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, especially for temperature-related indices. This suggests that using a single climate model that accounts for key sources of uncertainty can provide an efficient and complementary framework to the more common approach of multi-model ensembles. We also show that greenhouse gas mitigation has the potential to significantly reduce adverse effects (heat stress, risks of pest and disease) of climate change on agriculture, while also curtailing potentially beneficial impacts (earlier planting, possibility for multiple cropping). A major benefit of climate mitigation is potentially preventing changes in several indices to emerge from the noise of natural variability, even by 2100. This has major implications

  18. World law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harold J. Berman

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available In the third millennium of the Christian era, which is characterised by the emergence of a world economy and eventually a world society, the concept of world law is needed to embrace not only the traditional disciplines of public international law, and comparative law, but also the common underlying legal principles applicable in world trade, world finance, transnational transfer of technology and other fields of world economic law, as well as in such emerging fields as the protection of the world's environment and the protection of universal human rights. World law combines inter-state law with the common law of humanity and the customary law of various world communities.

  19. Impact of state and federal law on development of geothermal resources in Texas. Project L/R-9, final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, T.

    1974-10-31

    The significant geothermal resource in Texas consists of enormous reservoirs of hot, geopressed water, which formed along the Gulf Coast when water-laden sediments were deposited between surrounding impermeable features, so that the water which would otherwise have been forced out of the sediments was unable to escape. These deposits exist under tremendous pressure created by the weight of the overburden. A geopressure source absorbs heat indirectly, because the geopressured deposits create an insulating barrier that traps and absorbs the thermal energy of the underlying magma. The water from a geopressure source will not be as hot as water from a dry steam or wet steam source, but the quantity available is enormous, and the water pressure itself would be an additional energy source along with the thermal energy. The water may be fresh, or nearly so, and it will contain significant amounts of recoverable methane gas in solution. It may be possible to utilize the water pressure, thermal energy, and the methane gas to generate electricity in small power plants at the recovery site, and the water that has been passed through the turbines and heat exchangers may be a valuable by-product in itself, depending on its quality and regional demands for agriculture and industry. One of the impediments to the development of this resource, given the very sizable commitments of capital entailed, is the uncertain legal status of geothermal resources. This report attempts to locate geothermal resources within the general framework of Texas property law and to determine whether these resources can be developed under the law as it now exists. (MCW)

  20. The Swift Supergiant Fast X-Ray Transients Project:. [A Review, New Results and Future Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, P.; Mangano, V.; Ducci, L.; Esposito, P.; Vercellone, S.; Bocchino, F.; Burrows, D. N.; Kennea, J. A.; Krimm, H. A.; Gehrels, N.; Farinelli, R.; Ceccobello, C.

    2013-01-01

    We present a review of the Supergiant Fast X-ray Transients (SFXT) Project, a systematic investigation of the properties of SFXTs with a strategy that combines Swift monitoring programs with outburst follow-up observations. This strategy has quickly tripled the available sets of broad-band data of SFXT outbursts, and gathered a wealth of out-of-outburst data, which have led us to a broad-band spectral characterization, an assessment of the fraction of the time these sources spend in each phase, and their duty cycle of inactivity. We present some new observational results obtained through our outburst follow-ups, as fitting examples of the exceptional capabilities of Swift in catching bright flares and monitor them panchromatically.

  1. Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a review of modelling challenges and open questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefli, Bettina

    2015-04-01

    Hydropower is a pillar for renewable electricity production in almost all world regions. The planning horizon of major hydropower infrastructure projects stretches over several decades and consideration of evolving climatic conditions plays an ever increasing role. This review of model-based climate change impact assessments provides a synthesis of the wealth of underlying modelling assumptions, highlights the importance of local factors and attempts to identify the most urgent open questions. Based on existing case studies, it critically discusses whether current hydro-climatic modelling frameworks are likely to provide narrow enough water scenario ranges to be included into economic analyses for end-to-end climate change impact assessments including electricity market models. This will be completed with an overview of not or indirectly climate-related boundary conditions, such as economic growth, legal constraints, national subsidy frameworks or growing competition for water, which might locally largely outweigh any climate change impacts.

  2. Project of law relative to the electricity and gas public utilities and to the power and gas companies; Projet de loi relatif au service public de l'electricite et du gaz et aux entreprises electriques et gazieres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This document is the definitive text of this project of law adopted by the French house of commons. The aim of this law is to allow the administrations to avoid to use their eligibility right with the opening of the electricity and gas markets to competition. It changes the juridical status of the two public utilities Electricite de France (EdF) and Gaz de France (GdF) into two anonymous companies and creates two additional companies for the management of the power and gas networks. It ensures also the transposition of the European directives from June 26, 2003 (2003/54/CE and 2003/55/CE). It contains some proper dispositions and modifies various existing French laws, in particular the law no. 46-628 from April 8, 1946 about the electricity and gas nationalization and the law no. 2000-108 from February 10, 2000 relative to the modernization and development of the electric public utility. (J.S.)

  3. Future of Himalayan glaciers: Projections from CMIP5 and CORDEX climate models and their uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jury, Martin W.; Mendlik, Thomas; Tani, Satyanarayana; Truhetz, Heimo; Ragettli, Silvan; Pellicciotti, Francesca; Immerzeel, Walter

    2016-04-01

    Glaciers are of key importance to the freshwater supply in the Himalayan region. Their growth or melting is influenced by an interaction of temperature near the surface (tas) and precipitation rate (pr). In a changing climate characterized by rising temperatures mountain glaciers are ought to decline. However, recent observations indicate a glacier growth over the Karakoram (western Himalaya) due to a rise in snow accumulation while positive degree days show no change. To further investigate this behavior and to clarify whether this glacier growth is intermediate we use a model ensemble encompassing 34 GCMs of the CMIP5, 5 RCMs of the East-Asia CORDEX, as well as 3 RCMs of the South-Asia CORDEX for 3 different representative concentration pathways. The models' ability to correctly reproduce local weather patterns is accounted for via temporal and spatial correlations to observed tas and pr over the southern ridge of the Himalaya. APHRODITE is used as observational data. The reanalyses ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR and JRA-55 are used to further account for observational uncertainty. tas and pr of all climate simulations have been bias corrected (quantile mapping) in order to obtain snow accumulation and positive degree days. Finally, the uncertainty of the projected trends of the climate model ensemble has been quantified. First results indicate a uniform rise of positive degree days over all scenarios leading to a higher melting rate. However, this uniform behavior is in contrast to changes in snow accumulation, for which some models project an increase and others a decrease until the end of the century.

  4. Induced Seismicity Related to Hydrothermal Operation of Geothermal Projects in Southern Germany - Observations and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megies, T.; Kraft, T.; Wassermann, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Geothermal power plants in Southern Germany are operated hydrothermally and at low injection pressures in a seismically inactive region considered very low seismic hazard. For that reason, permit authorities initially enforced no monitoring requirements on the operating companies. After a series of events perceived by local residents, a scientific monitoring survey was conducted over several years, revealing several hundred induced earthquakes at one project site.We summarize results from monitoring at this site, including absolute locations in a local 3D velocity model, relocations using double-difference and master-event methods and focal mechanism determinations that show a clear association with fault structures in the reservoir which extend down into the underlying crystalline basement. To better constrain the shear wave velocity models that have a strong influence on hypocentral depth estimates, several different approaches to estimate layered vp/vs models are employed.Results from these studies have prompted permit authorities to start imposing minimal monitoring requirements. Since in some cases these geothermal projects are only separated by a few kilometers, we investigate the capabilities of an optimized network combining the monitoring resources of six neighboring well doublets in a joint network. Optimization is taking into account the -- on this local scale, urban environment -- highly heterogeneous background noise conditions and the feasibility of potential monitoring sites, removing non-viable sites before the optimization procedure. First results from the actual network realization show good detection capabilities for small microearthquakes despite the minimum instrumentational effort, demonstrating the benefits of good coordination of monitoring efforts.

  5. NASA Innovation Fund 2010 Project Elastically Shaped Future Air Vehicle Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Nhan

    2010-01-01

    This report describes a study conducted in 2010 under the NASA Innovation Fund Award to develop innovative future air vehicle concepts. Aerodynamic optimization was performed to produce three different aircraft configuration concepts for low drag, namely drooped wing, inflected wing, and squashed fuselage. A novel wing shaping control concept is introduced. This concept describes a new capability of actively controlling wing shape in-flight to minimize drag. In addition, a novel flight control effector concept is developed to enable wing shaping control. This concept is called a variable camber continuous trailing edge flap that can reduce drag by as much as 50% over a conventional flap. In totality, the potential benefits of fuel savings offered by these concepts can be significant.

  6. Strategies towards a 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in the Future Climate Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2009-01-01

    energy system by the year 2050 are presented. Two short term transition target years in the process towards this goal are analysed for 2015 and 2030. The analyses reveal that implementing energy savings, renewable energy and more efficient conversion technologies can have positive socioeconomic effects......, create employment and potentially lead to large earnings on exports. If externalities such as health effects etc. are included, even more benefits can be expected. 100 per cent renewable energy systems will be technically possible in the future, and may even be economically beneficial compared......Greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are generally considered costly with world leaders often engaging in debate concerning the costs of mitigation and the distribution of these costs between different countries. In this paper, the analyses and results of the design of a 100 per cent renewable...

  7. Perspectives of micro-pattern gaseous detector technologies for future physics projects

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2072085

    2013-01-01

    A centenary after the invention of the basic principle of gas amplification, gaseous detectors are still the first choice whenever the large area coverage with low material budget is required. Advances in photolithography and microprocessing techniques in the chip industry during the past two decades triggered a major transition in the field of gas detectors from wire structures to Micro-Pattern Gas Detector (MPGD) concepts, revolutionizing cell-size limitations for many gas detector applications. The high radiation resistance and excellent spatial and time resolution make them an invaluable tool to confront future detector challenges at the frontiers of research. The design of the new micro-pattern devices appears suitable for industrial production. In 2008, the RD51 collaboration at CERN has been established to further advance technological developments of MPGDs and associated electronic-readout systems, for applications in basic and applied research. This review provides an overview of the state-of-the-art...

  8. The future market for biogas from waste - Sub-Project 3; Framtida marknaden foer biogas fraan avfall - Delprojekt 3 inom projektet Perspektiv paa framtida avfallsbehandling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmstroem, David; Bisaillon, Mattias; Eriksson, Ola; Hellstroem, Hanna; Nilsson, Karolina

    2013-09-01

    The overall aim of the project was to study the conditions, opportunities and constraints for the development of the market for biogas from waste in Sweden. Seven areas of importance to the development have been identified in previous projects. The areas are: market and competition, supply and demand for waste, environmental benefits of biogas utilization, technology development, economic value of biogas, political instruments and the handling of digestate. The ambition has been to create a fact and market report for these areas for stake holders such as operators, representatives of authorities and decision makers. The project is a sub-project of 'Perspectives on future waste treatment'. The goal achievement of the project is expected to be good. During the project, there has also been considerable interest in the results, which is already used by a number of operators, both within and outside the project. Thereby, the results have a good spread, even before the project is completed.

  9. Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2014-05-01

    Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

  10. Nuclear data. Situation and future projects; Les donnees nucleaires. Situation et perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bioux, P.

    1995-01-01

    Nuclear power provides the major part of the electricity generation in France, using a system of highly developed Pressurized Water Reactors. Electricite de France, which is responsible for the exploitation of this system, is concerned to ensure the continuity of the expertise and facilities which provide relevant basic scientific information contributing to the efficient exploitation of the system and, in particular, the continuity of the means for providing relevant nuclear data. The nuclear data requirements for the exploitation of the existing nuclear power system have been largely met. However, there remain some needs, in particular in the field of reactor neutronics. Furthermore if one considers the future (for example, the next 10 years) it is not certain that will be possible to meet the needs which are expected to arise. The review, commissioned on behalf of EDF, about the current status and future expectations for work in this field, has shown certain tendencies in the international situation. In particular one notes a general reduction in the effort both in Western Europe and the United States. This negative tendency can perhaps be explained by the almost general reduction world-wide in new nuclear power developments. However, unresolved problems remain, such as the development of methods for reducing the stocks of plutonium and the incineration and storage of a nuclear waste of long duration. In addition improvements in the accuracy of nuclear data could result in non-negligible economic benefits in the exploitation of the existing nuclear facilities. For these very important reasons it is desirable to reverse the present trend. (author). 2 annexes.

  11. Potential Bias in Projecting Future Regional Megadrought Risk: Insights From A Global Data-Model Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T.; Cole, J. E.; Fasullo, J.; Loope, G. R.; Parsons, L. A.; Stevenson, S.

    2015-12-01

    Megadrought is one of the most significant and costly climate extremes, and one that stakeholders (e.g., water and other resource managers) the world over wish to understand better; in particular, they need estimates of the risk of severe droughts as a function of drought frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. In many dry-climate regions of the globe, megadrought is synonymous with multi-decadal drought. However, in other regions, megadrought can be defined as extended drought, mostly not seen in the period of instrumental observations, and that would have large impacts if it were to occur in the future. New and published paleoclimatic observations allow us to understand the spectrum of drought in many regions of the globe; droughts exceeding 50 years have occurred in recent Earth history in southwestern North America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Mediterranean and Australia, whereas shorter megadroughts have occurred in Monsoon Asia, Amazonia and elsewhere. Data-model comparisons for regions with sufficiently long (e.g., 1000-2000 years) records of observed hydroclimatic variability suggest that state-of-the-art models can provide realistic estimates of interannual to decadal drought risk, but underestimate the risk of megadrought. Likely reasons for this shortcoming are the lack of sufficient multi-decadal variability in simulations of the past and future, plus an underappreciated understanding about how temperature variability and land-surface feedbacks interact with hydrological and ecological drought, as well as the roles played by unusually wet hydroclimatic extremes (e.g., ENSO related) in ending droughts of long duration. Paleoclimatic records also provide the opportunity to estimate how much models underestimate megadrought risk as a function of locale, frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration; they also aid in providing stakeholders with bias-corrected estimates of megadrought risk.

  12. Using Place-Based Independent Class Projects as a Means to Hone Research Skills and Prepare a Future Geospatial Workforce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakash, A.; Gens, R.; Cristobal, J.; Waigl, C. F.; Balazs, M. S.; Graham, P. R.; Butcher, C. E.; Sparrow, E. B.

    2015-12-01

    It is never too early to bring in your own research into teaching. Considerable efforts have been made globally to introduce STEM research themes in K12 environments. These efforts a laudable as they help to create STEM identity in students and get students excited to pursue higher education. The task of a post-secondary educator is to build on that excitement and ensure that the students who enter higher education come out knowledgeable, skilled, and employable. At the University of Alaska Fairbanks we have structured our geospatial curricula to include place-based, independent research projects in several semester-long classes. These class-projects serve as mini capstone research experiences that take a student through the entire process of research including: identifying a problem or need; building a hypothesis; formulating the science question; searching, acquiring, and processing data; analyzing and interpreting the research results; and presenting the outcomes in written and oral format to a peer group. Over a decade of experience has shown that students tend to engage and perform well when the research addresses an authentic problem they can relate to and take ownership of. Over 150 student-lead class projects using a variety of freely available datasets have contributed not only to preparing the future workforce, but also to enhancing the research profile of UAF. We extended the same model to a summer internship program where graduate students who have gone through the experience of an in-class research project serve as mentors for undergraduate interns. Even the condensed time frame yields positive outcomes including joint publications between faculty, staff, graduate students and undergraduate students in the peer-reviewed literature.

  13. Methodology To Define Drought Management Scenarios Based On Accumulated Future Projections Of Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haro-Monteagudo, David; Solera-Solera, Abel; Andreu-Álvarez, Joaquín

    2014-05-01

    Drought is a serious threat to many water resources systems in the world. Especially to those in which the equilibrium between resources availability and water uses is very fragile, making that deviation below normality compromises the capacity of the system to cope with all the demands and environmental requirements. Since droughts are not isolated events but instead they develop through time in what could be considered a creeping behavior, it is very difficult to determine when an episode starts and how long will it last. Because this is a major concern for water managers and society in general, scientific research has strived to develop indices that allow evaluating the risk of a drought event occurrence. These indices often have as basis previous and current state variables of the system that combined between them supply decision making responsible with an indication of the risk of being in a situation of drought, normally through the definition of a drought scenario situation. While this way of proceeding has found to be effective in many systems, there are cases in which indicators systems fail to define the appropriate on-going drought scenario early enough to start measures that allowed to minimize the possible impacts. This is the case, for example, of systems with high seasonal precipitation variability. The use of risk assessment models to evaluate future possible states of the system becomes handy in cases like the previous one, although they are not limited to such systems. We present a method to refine the drought scenario definition within a water resources system. To implement this methodology, we use a risk assessment model generalized to water resources systems based in the stochastic generation of multiple possible future streamflows generation and the simulation of the system from a Monte-Carlo approach. We do this assessment every month of the year up to the end of the hydrologic year that normally corresponds with the end of the irrigation

  14. Sea-level change and projected future flooding along the Egyptian Mediterranean coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Shaltout

    2015-10-01

    The results indicate that DT can be used to study coastal and deep-water sea-level changes in the study area. The southern Levantine sub-basin sea level has recently risen by an average of 3.1 cm decade−1 and exhibits significant annual sea-level variation of −17 cm to 8 cm. The sea-level variation is significantly affected by several factors: sea-level variation west of the Gibraltar Strait, steric sea level, and sea-surface temperature. The GFDL simulations best describing the recent sea level over the study area, i.e., GFDL-CM3 and GFDL-ESM2M, are used to calculate the two-model ensemble mean (GFDL-2ENM, which indicates that Egypt's Mediterranean coast will experience substantial sea-level rise (SLR this century. The estimated uncertainty over the study area was 4–22 cm by 2100, with the emission assumptions dominating the three sources of uncertainty sources. Comparing the projected SLRs with digital elevation data indicates that Egypt's Mediterranean coast will only be safe from flooding by 2100 if effective adaptation methods are applied.

  15. Capacity attributes of future urban water management regimes: projections from Australian sustainability practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Meene, S J; Brown, R R; Farrelly, M A

    2010-01-01

    Transitioning to more sustainable urban water management is widely accepted as an essential societal objective. While there has been significant progress in developing technical solutions to the challenges faced, numerous barriers remain at the regime level, indicating that further investigation into the regime is required. This paper reports on a social research project aimed at identifying capacity attributes of a more sustainable urban water management regime. Attributes were identified for the administrative and regulatory framework, inter- and intra-organisational and individual regime spheres. Over 125 urban water practitioners specialising in sustainability in Sydney and Melbourne were interviewed to identify the attributes of a more sustainable regime. The attributes reveal that a sustainable urban water management regime emphasises learning, diverse policy tools and institutional arrangements, together with interaction among stakeholders and professional disciplines. The interaction is characterised by respect, trust and mutual understanding. The sustainable regime attributes are compared to the traditional regime and reveal that while progress has been made towards a sustainable regime, additional improvement is required. Attributes identified across multiple regime spheres indicate potential focus areas for capacity building programs or reform efforts to more effectively enable regime change towards sustainable urban water management.

  16. Future Projections of Fire Occurrence in Brazil Using EC-Earth Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Silva

    Full Text Available Abstract Fire has a fundamental role in the Earth system as it influences global and local ecosystem patterns and processes, such as vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle and climate. Since, in the global context, Brazil is one of the regions with higher fire activity, an assessment is here performed of the sensitivity of the wildfire regime in Brazilian savanna and shrubland areas to changes in regional climate during the 21st Century, for an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5 of climate change. The assessment is based on a spatial and temporal analysis of a meteorological fire danger index specifically developed for Brazilian biomes, which was evaluated based on regional climate simulations of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4 forced by the EC-Earth earth system model. Results show a systematic increase in the extreme levels of fire danger throughout the 21st Century that mainly results from the increase in maximum daily temperature, which rises by about 2 °C between 2005 and 2100. This study provides new insights about projected fire activity in Brazilian woody savannas associated to climate change and is expected to benefit the user community, from governmental policies to land management and climate researches.

  17. Final Report for the portion performed in the University of Illinois on the project entitled "Optimizing the Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Ensemble Modeling System to Improve Future Climate Change Projections at Regional to Local Scales"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liang, Xin-Zhong

    2011-01-31

    This is the final report for the closure of the research tasks on the project that have performed during the entire reporting period in the University of Illinois. It contains a summary of the achievements and details of key results as well as the future plan for this project to be continued in the University of Maryland.

  18. Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-11-01

    Wind power is one of the fastest growing sources of new electricity generation in the United States. Cumulative installed capacity was more than 74,000 megawatts (MW) at year-end 2015 and wind power supplied 4.7% of total 2015 U.S. electricity generation. Despite the growth of the wind power industry, the distributed wind market has remained limited. Cumulative installations of distributed wind through 2015 totaled 934 MW. This first-of-a-kind exploratory analysis characterizes the future opportunity for behind-the-meter distributed wind, serving primarily rural or suburban homes, farms, and manufacturing facilities. This work focuses only on the grid-connected, behind-the-meter subset of the broader distributed wind market. We estimate this segment to be approximately half of the 934 MW of total installed distributed wind capacity at year-end 2015. Potential from other distributed wind market segments including systems installed in front of the meter (e.g., community wind) and in remote, off-grid locations is not assessed in this analysis and therefore, would be additive to results presented here. These other distributed wind market segments are not considered in this initial effort because of their relatively unique economic and market attributes.

  19. Dental manpower planning in India: current scenario and future projections for the year 2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vundavalli, Sudhakar

    2014-04-01

    Dental manpower issues in India are discussed in this article which consists of both qualitative and quantitative research. The output of qualified dentists has increased substantially over last decade and at present there are over 117,825 dentists working in India. Although India has a dentist to population ratio of 1:10,271, the newly graduating dentists find it difficult to survive in the private sector. At present less than approximately 5% graduated dentists are working in the Government sector. If the present situation continues there will be more than one lakh dentists over supply by the year 2020. Continuation of the current situation will lead to wastage of highly trained dental manpower and create a threat to the professional integrity of the dentists. This research highlights the fact that there is an urgent need for an organised national human resource planning system to control the supply and demand of dental manpower, to ensure a uniform distribution of manpower and to give future directions to policy makers. © 2013 FDI World Dental Federation.

  20. Sorghum production under future climate in the Southwestern USA: model projections of yield, greenhouse gas emissions and soil C fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, B.; Ghimire, R.; Hartman, M. D.; Marsalis, M.

    2016-12-01

    Large tracts of semi-arid land in the Southwestern USA are relatively less important for food production than the US Corn Belt, and represent a promising area for expansion of biofuel/bioproduct crops. However, high temperatures, low available water and high solar radiation in the SW represent a challenge to suitable feedstock development, and future climate change scenarios predict that portions of the SW will experience increased temperature and temporal shifts in precipitation distribution. Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) is a valuable forage crop with promise as a biofuel feedstock, given its high biomass under semi-arid conditions, relatively lower N fertilizer requirements compared to corn, and salinity tolerance. To evaluate the environmental impact of expanded sorghum cultivation under future climate in the SW USA, we used the DayCent model in concert with a suite of downscaled future weather projections to predict biogeochemical consequences (greenhouse gas flux and impacts on soil carbon) of sorghum cultivation in New Mexico. The model showed good correspondence with yield data from field trials including both dryland and irrigated sorghum (measured vs. modeled; r2 = 0.75). Simulation experiments tested the effect of dryland production versus irrigation, low N versus high N inputs and delayed fertilizer application. Nitrogen application timing and irrigation impacted yield and N2O emissions less than N rate and climate. Across N and irrigation treatments, future climate simulations resulted in 6% increased yield and 20% lower N2O emissions compared to current climate. Soil C pools declined under future climate. The greatest declines in soil C were from low N input sorghum simulations, regardless of irrigation (>20% declines in SOM in both cases), and requires further evaluation to determine if changing future climate is driving these declines, or if they are a function of prolonged sorghum-fallow rotations in the model. The relatively small gain in yield for

  1. Sensitivity of future continental United States water deficit projections to general circulation models, the evapotranspiration estimation method, and the greenhouse gas emission scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Seungwoo; Graham, Wendy D.; Hwang, Syewoon; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael

    2016-08-01

    Projecting water deficit under various possible future climate scenarios depends on the choice of general circulation model (GCM), reference evapotranspiration (ET0) estimation method, and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) trajectory. The relative contribution of each of these factors must be evaluated in order to choose an appropriate ensemble of future scenarios for water resources planning. In this study variance-based global sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo filtering were used to evaluate the relative sensitivity of projected changes in precipitation (P), ET0, and water deficit (defined here as P-ET0) to choice of GCM, ET0 estimation method, and RCP trajectory over the continental United States (US) for two distinct future periods: 2030-2060 (future period 1) and 2070-2100 (future period 2). A total of 9 GCMs, 10 ET0 methods, and 3 RCP trajectories were used to quantify the range of future projections and estimate the relative sensitivity of future projections to each of these factors. In general, for all regions of the continental US, changes in future precipitation are most sensitive to the choice of GCM, while changes in future ET0 are most sensitive to the choice of ET0 estimation method. For changes in future water deficit, the choice of GCM is the most influential factor in the cool season (December-March), and the choice of ET0 estimation method is most important in the warm season (May-October) for all regions except the Southeast US, where GCMs and ET0 have approximately equal influence throughout most of the year. Although the choice of RCP trajectory is generally less important than the choice of GCM or ET0 method, the impact of RCP trajectory increases in future period 2 over future period 1 for all factors. Monte Carlo filtering results indicate that particular GCMs and ET0 methods drive the projection of wetter or drier future conditions much more than RCP trajectory; however, the set of GCMs and ET0 methods that produce wetter or

  2. Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, J.O.; Bigelow, N.H.; Prentice, I.C.; Harrison, S.P.; Bartlein, P.J.; Christensen, T.R.; Cramer, W.; Matveyeva, N.V.; McGuire, A.D.; Murray, D.F.; Razzhivin, V.Y.; Smith, B.; Walker, D. A.; Anderson, P.M.; Andreev, A.A.; Brubaker, L.B.; Edwards, M.E.; Lozhkin, A.V.

    2003-01-01

    Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55??N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

  3. Response of the Arctic pteropod Limacina helicina to projected future environmental conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steeve Comeau

    Full Text Available Thecosome pteropods (pelagic mollusks can play a key role in the food web of various marine ecosystems. They are a food source for zooplankton or higher predators such as fishes, whales and birds that is particularly important in high latitude areas. Since they harbor a highly soluble aragonitic shell, they could be very sensitive to ocean acidification driven by the increase of anthropogenic CO(2 emissions. The effect of changes in the seawater chemistry was investigated on Limacina helicina, a key species of Arctic pelagic ecosystems. Individuals were kept in the laboratory under controlled pCO(2 levels of 280, 380, 550, 760 and 1020 microatm and at control (0 degrees C and elevated (4 degrees C temperatures. The respiration rate was unaffected by pCO(2 at control temperature, but significantly increased as a function of the pCO(2 level at elevated temperature. pCO(2 had no effect on the gut clearance rate at either temperature. Precipitation of CaCO(3, measured as the incorporation of (45Ca, significantly declined as a function of pCO(2 at both temperatures. The decrease in calcium carbonate precipitation was highly correlated to the aragonite saturation state. Even though this study demonstrates that pteropods are able to precipitate calcium carbonate at low aragonite saturation state, the results support the current concern for the future of Arctic pteropods, as the production of their shell appears to be very sensitive to decreased pH. A decline of pteropod populations would likely cause dramatic changes to various pelagic ecosystems.

  4. Projected water consumption in future global agriculture: scenarios and related impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfister, Stephan; Bayer, Peter; Koehler, Annette; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2011-09-15

    Global stress on water and land resources is increasing as a consequence of population growth and higher caloric food demand. Many terrestrial ecosystems have already massively been degraded for providing agricultural land, and water scarcity related to irrigation has damaged water dependent ecosystems. Coping with the food and biomass demand of an increased population, while minimizing the impacts of crop production, is therefore a massive upcoming challenge. In this context, we developed four strategies to deliver the biotic output for feeding mankind in 2050. Expansion on suitable and intensification of existing areas are compared to assess associated environmental impacts, including irrigation demand, water stress under climate change, and the productivity of the occupied land. Based on the agricultural production pattern and impacts of the strategies we identified the trade-offs between land and water use. Intensification in regions currently under deficit irrigation can increase agricultural output by up to 30%. However, intensified crop production causes enormous water stress in many locations and might not be a viable solution. Furthermore, intensification alone will not be able to meet future food demand: additionally, a reduction of waste by 50% along the food supply chain or expansion of agricultural land is required for satisfying current per-capita meat and bioenergy consumption. Suitable areas for such expansion are mainly located in Africa, followed by South America. The increased land stress is of smaller concern than the water stress modeled for the intensification case. Therefore, a combination of waste reduction with expansion on suitable pastures generally results as the best option, along with some intensification on selected areas. Our results suggested that minimizing environmental impacts requires fundamental changes in agricultural systems and international cooperation, by producing crops where it is most environmentally efficient and not

  5. From Past to future: the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project's contribution to CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kageyama, Masa; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy; Haywood, Alan; Jungclaus, Johann; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako

    2016-04-01

    Since the 1990s, PMIP has developed with the following objectives: 1/to evaluate the ability of climate models used for climate prediction in simulating well-documented past climates outside the range of present and recent climate variability; 2/to understand the mechanisms of these climate changes, in particular the role of the different climate feedbacks. To achieve these goals, PMIP has actively fostered paleo-data syntheses, multi-model analyses, including analyses of relationships between model results from past and future simulations, and model-data comparisons. For CMIP6, PMIP will focus on five past periods: - the Last Millennium (850 CE - present), to analyse natural climate variability on multidecadal or longer time-scales - the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago, to compare model runs with paleodata for a period of warmer climate in the Northern Hemisphere, with an enhanced hydrological cycle - the Last Glacial Maximum, 21000 years ago, to evaluate the ability of climate models to represent a cold climate extreme and examine whether paleoinformation about this period can help and constrain climate sensitivity - the Last InterGlacial (~127,000 year ago), which provides a benchmark for a period of high sea-level stand - the mid-Pliocene warm period (~3.2 million years ago), which allows for the evaluation of the model's long-term response to a CO2 level analogous to the modern one. This poster will present the rationale of these "PMIP4-CMIP6" experiments. Participants are invited to come and discuss about the experimental set-up and the model output to be distributed via CMIP6. For more information and discussion of the PMIP4-CMIP6 experimental design, please visit: https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/pmip3/doku.php/pmip3:cmip6:design:index

  6. Coping with commitment: projected thermal stress on coral reefs under different future scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D Donner

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures can lead to mass coral bleaching. Past studies have concluded that anthropogenic climate change may rapidly increase the frequency of these thermal stress events, leading to declines in coral cover, shifts in the composition of corals and other reef-dwelling organisms, and stress on the human populations who depend on coral reef ecosystems for food, income and shoreline protection. The ability of greenhouse gas mitigation to alter the near-term forecast for coral reefs is limited by the time lag between greenhouse gas emissions and the physical climate response. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This study uses observed sea surface temperatures and the results of global climate model forced with five different future emissions scenarios to evaluate the "committed warming" for coral reefs worldwide. The results show that the physical warming commitment from current accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could cause over half of the world's coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent (p> or =0.2 year(-1 thermal stress by 2080. An additional "societal" warming commitment, caused by the time required to shift from a business-as-usual emissions trajectory to a 550 ppm CO(2 stabilization trajectory, may cause over 80% of the world's coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent events by 2030. Thermal adaptation of 1.5 degrees C would delay the thermal stress forecast by 50-80 years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results suggest that adaptation -- via biological mechanisms, coral community shifts and/or management interventions -- could provide time to change the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and possibly avoid the recurrence of harmfully frequent events at the majority (97% of the world's coral reefs this century. Without any thermal adaptation, atmospheric CO(2 concentrations may need to be stabilized below current levels to avoid the degradation of coral reef ecosystems

  7. La socialisation universitaire des étudiants The University Socialization of Students. A School Experiment Placing on Trial the Learning Project and Future projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aziz Jellab

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Trois dimensions en tension caractérisent l’expérience étudiante : la socialisation aux normes et à la vie universitaires, la construction du projet d’apprendre et l’élaboration d’un projet professionnel (ou de projets d’avenir. A partir d’une recherche qualitative, menée auprès d’étudiants de L1, inscrits pour les uns dans une filière de masse (Psychologie, pour les autres, dans une filière à effectif plus réduit (Sociologie-Histoire et Langues étrangères appliquées, cet article vise à mettre en évidence les différentes épreuves qui participent de l’affiliation aux études universitaires. En enrichissant ce matériau par d’autres entretiens menés avec des étudiants de Master 1, nous observons que le passage de l’enseignement secondaire vers l’enseignement supérieur désigne un processus dans lequel le “choix” de l’université oblige à la construction d’un nouveau rapport aux études, un rapport laissant apparaître les effets des spécificités disciplinaires. Le projet d’apprendre et les manières de s’approprier des savoirs accompagnent un processus de subjectivation qu’il s’agit de concilier avec la sociabilité étudiante, sans négliger les projets d’avenir. C’est dans les interstices de ces tensions que réside le risque d’un échec scolaire, surtout que l’université reste faiblement contraignante, comme en témoigne l’évocation récurrente par les étudiants de la catégorie de “liberté”.Three dimensions in tension characterize the female students’ experience: socialization to the standards and university life, the construction of a learning project and the development of a professional project (or future projects. Starting from qualitative research, undertaken among students of the L1, for some enroled in a mass discipline (Psychology, and for others, in a more reduced, more elective field (Sociology-History and applied Foreign languages, this article aims

  8. Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes in the Great Plains region of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchard, Michelle; Butman, David; Hawbaker, Todd; Li, Zhengpeng; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; McDonald, Cory; Reker, Ryan; Sayler, Kristi; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2011-01-01

    This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 and to improve understanding of carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in the Great Plains region in the central part of the United States. The assessment examined carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and other GHG fluxes (methane and nitrous oxide) in all major terrestrial ecosystems (forests, grasslands/shrublands, agricultural lands, and wetlands) and freshwater aquatic systems (rivers, streams, lakes, and impoundments) in two time periods: baseline (generally in the first half of the 2010s) and future (projections from baseline to 2050). The assessment was based on measured and observed data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and many other agencies and organizations and used remote sensing, statistical methods, and simulation models.

  9. A project for future life—Swedish women's thoughts on childbearing lacking experience of giving birth and parenthood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyllike Christensson

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available A lifeworld hermeneutic approach was used in order to understand Swedish women's thoughts on childbearing. Nine women were interviewed, and they ranged in age from 22 to 28 years and represented diverse socioeconomic, educational, sexual, and fertility backgrounds. All women were similar in that they lacked experience of giving birth and parenthood. The analysis showed that childbearing includes dimensions of both immanence and transcendence. Immanence, as childbearing is seen as stagnant to women's freedom in present life. Transcendence, as childbearing is thought of as a project for future life, a part of female identity, and a conscious standpoint for which the woman wants to be prepared and for which she wants to create the best conditions.

  10. Screening Assessment of Potential Human-Health Risk from Future Natural-Gas Drilling Near Project Rulison in Western Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels Jeffrey I.,Chapman Jenny B.

    2012-01-01

    The Project Rulison underground nuclear test was conducted in 1969 at a depth of 8,400 ft in the Williams Fork Formation of the Piceance Basin, west-central Colorado (Figure 1). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) is the steward of the site. Their management is guided by data collected from past site investigations and current monitoring, and by the results of calculations of expected behavior of contaminants remaining in the deep subsurface. The purpose of this screening risk assessment is to evaluate possible health risks from current and future exposure to Rulison contaminants so the information can be factored into LM's stewardship decisions. For example, these risk assessment results can inform decisions regarding institutional controls at the site and appropriate monitoring of nearby natural-gas extraction activities. Specifically, the screening risk analysis can provide guidance for setting appropriate action levels for contaminant monitoring to ensure protection of human health.

  11. Projecting future wave climates and corresponding shoreline changes along the differently exposed coastal sections of the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suursaar, Ülo; Tõnisson, Hannes

    2015-04-01

    The aim of the study is to analyze the recently observed and projected future coastal changes in differently exposed Estonian coastal sections as a result of changing wind and wave climates. Along the shoreline of the practically tideless Baltic Sea, the increase in storminess has already impacted the coastal environment over the last 50 years. However, the number of storms, as well as their pathways, has been fluctuating considerably over the last decades. Furthermore, forecasting future hydrodynamic conditions and corresponding coastal changes is a rather mixed, yet crucial task. A number of Estonian study sites have been regularly examined by coastal scientists since the 1960s. Six coastal sections have been chosen for this study: Harilaid Peninsula (exposed to SW), Letipea-Sillamäe (N), Kõiguste-Nasva (SE), Kihnu-Pärnu (S), and two sides of the Osmussaar Island (W, N). Since the 2000s, use of GPS instruments and GIS software has enabled year-to-year changes in the shoreline to be tracked and the calculation of the corresponding areas or volumes due to accumulation and erosion. Recently digitized aerial photographs, as well as orthophotos and old topographic maps, enable the calculation of changes over longer sub-periods. Based on recorded and hindcasted changes in wind-driven hydrodynamic conditions, we found relationships between forcing conditions and the rates at which shorelines were changing. For future changes, wave climates were projected for the selected coastal sections of special geomorphic interest, where also a series of hydrodynamic surveys (waves, currents, sea level) were carried out using ADCP-s in 2006-2014. Wave parameters were consecutively hindcasted using a site-dependently calibrated fetch-based wave model. As the full calculation period (1966-2013) might suffer from inhomogeneity of wind input data, a confidently homogeneous time cut (2004-2013; 10 full years with hourly resolution) was chosen as a baseline (or control) period. An

  12. Regional Climate Downscaling Of African Climate Using A High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model: Validation And Future Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raj, J.; Stenchikov, G. L.; Bangalath, H.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change impact assessment and adaptation planning require region specific information with high spatial resolution, since the climate and weather effects are directly felt at the local scale. While most of the state-of-the-art General Circulation Models lack adequate spatial resolution, regional climate models (RCM) used in a nested domain are generally incapable of incorporating the two-way exchanges between regional and global climate. In this study we use a very high resolution atmospheric general circulation model HiRAM, developed at NOAA GFDL, to investigate the regional climate changes over CORDEX African domain. The HiRAM simulations are performed with a horizontal grid spacing of 25 km, which is an ample resolution for regional climate simulation. HiRAM has the advantage of naturally describing interaction between regional and global climate. Historic (1975-2004) simulations and future (2007-2050) projections, with both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 pathways, are conducted in line with the CORDEX protocol. A coarse resolution sea surface temperature (SST) is prescribed from the GFDL Earth System Model runs of IPPC AR5, as bottom boundary condition over ocean. The GFDL Land Surface Model (LM3) is employed to calculate physical processes at surface and in soil. The preliminary analysis of the performance of HiRAM, using historic runs, shows it reproduces the regional climate adequately well in comparison with observations. Significant improvement in the simulation of regional climate is evident in comparison with the coarse resolution driving model. Future projections predict an increase in atmospheric temperature over Africa with stronger warming in the subtropics than in tropics. A significant strengthening of West African Monsoon and a southward shift of the summer rainfall maxima over Africa is predicted in both RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

  13. Surface Energy and Mass Balance Model for Greenland Ice Sheet and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaojian

    The Greenland Ice Sheet contains nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of glacial ice. If the entire ice sheet completely melted, sea level would raise by nearly 7 meters. There is thus considerable interest in monitoring the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Each year, the ice sheet gains ice from snowfall and loses ice through iceberg calving and surface melting. In this thesis, we develop, validate and apply a physics based numerical model to estimate current and future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The numerical model consists of a coupled surface energy balance and englacial model that is simple enough that it can be used for long time scale model runs, but unlike previous empirical parameterizations, has a physical basis. The surface energy balance model predicts ice sheet surface temperature and melt production. The englacial model predicts the evolution of temperature and meltwater within the ice sheet. These two models can be combined with estimates of precipitation (snowfall) to estimate the mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. We first compare model performance with in-situ observations to demonstrate that the model works well. We next evaluate how predictions are degraded when we statistically downscale global climate data. We find that a simple, nearest neighbor interpolation scheme with a lapse rate correction is able to adequately reproduce melt patterns on the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results are comparable to those obtained using empirical Positive Degree Day (PDD) methods. Having validated the model, we next drove the ice sheet model using the suite of atmospheric model runs available through the CMIP5 atmospheric model inter-comparison, which in turn built upon the RCP 8.5 (business as usual) scenarios. From this exercise we predict how much surface melt production will increase in the coming century. This results in 4-10 cm sea level equivalent, depending on the CMIP5 models. Finally, we try to bound melt water

  14. Future agricultural water demand under climate change: regional variability and uncertainties arising from CMIP5 climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, J.; Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.

    2012-12-01

    The agricultural sector (irrigation and livestock) uses by far the largest amount of water among all sectors and is responsible for 70% of the global water withdrawal. At a country scale, irrigation water withdrawal often exceeds 90% of the total water used in many of emerging and developing countries such as India, Pakistan, Iran and Mexico, sustaining much of food production and the livelihood of millions of people. The livestock sector generally accounts less than 1-2% of total water withdrawal, yet exceeds 10-30% of the total water used in many of the African countries. Future agricultural water demand is, however, subject to large uncertainties due to anticipated climate change, i.e. warming temperature and changing precipitation variability, in various regions of the world. Here, we use a global hydrological and water resources model to quantify the impact of climate change on regional irrigation and livestock water demand, and the resulting uncertainties arsing from newly available CMIP5 climate projections obtained through Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP; http://www.isi-mip.org/). Irrigation water requirement per unit crop area is estimated by simulating daily soil water balance with crop-related data. Livestock water demand is calculated by combining livestock densities with their drinking water requirements that is a function of air temperature. The results of the ensemble mean show that global irrigation and livestock water demand increased by ~6% and ~12% by 2050 respectively primarily due to higher evaporative demand as a result of increased temperature. At a regional scale, agricultural water demand decreased over some parts of Europe (e.g., Italy, Germany) and Southeast Asia (e.g., the Philippines, Malaysia), but increased over South Asia, the U.S., the Middle East and Africa. However, the projections are highly uncertain over many parts of the world. The results of the ensemble projections in agricultural water demand

  15. Projecting Future Nitrous Oxide Emissions From Agriculture: Importance of Ecological Feedbacks and the Environmental Benefits of Improved Nitrogen Use Efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanter, D.; Zhang, X.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) presents a triple threat to the global environment: it is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, the largest remaining anthropogenic contributor to stratospheric ozone depletion, and an important component of the nitrogen (N) cascade - where one atom of N can interconvert between a number of forms, each with a unique set of environmental impacts. Here we use a dynamic vegetation model (Princeton-Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) LM3 - the interactive land component of the GFDL Earth System Model) to assess how changes in future climate, land-use, and global fertilizer and manure application are projected to affect global N2O emissions from agriculture by 2050. Agricultural land is defined in this study as the sum of cropland and pasture. In a baseline scenario assuming little improvement in global N use efficiency (NUE) by 2050, the model projects a 24-31% increase in global agricultural N2O emissions (with the uncertainty range stemming from differences in climate forcing, land-use and fertilizer and manure consumption between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, the two climate scenarios used in this study) - rising from 2.9 Tg N2O-N yr-1 in 1990-2000 to 3.6-3.8 Tg N2O-N yr-1 in 2040-2050. This emission increase is considerably less than the projected increases in global fertilizer and manure consumption (42-44%) and previously published projections of global agricultural N2O emission increases (38-75% - again, the uncertainty range reflecting the differences between the climate scenarios used). This disparity appears to be a result of ecological feedbacks captured by the model, where a considerable portion of the increase in fertilizer and manure use is absorbed by agricultural plant biomass rather than lost to the environment. In addition to this dynamic, the model projects that improvements in global NUE of 20-50% could reduce global N2O emissions significantly, delivering important climate and stratospheric ozone benefits over the period

  16. The Iceland Deep Drilling Project (IDDP): (I) Status and Future Plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elders, W. A.; Fridleifsson, G. O.; Bird, D. K.; Schiffman, P.; Zierenberg, R.; Reed, M. H.

    2006-12-01

    drilling. The industrial consortium will fund the >20 million USD cost of drilling and the US National Science Foundation and the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program will jointly fund the coring and sampling for scientific studies. Research by a team of approximately 50 scientists from seven countries is underway; the US investigators are reporting some initial studies at Reykjanes and Krafla in a series of accompanying papers. In the coming decade the IDDP will drill a series of deep holes in Icelandic geothermal fields, including a return to the seawater system at Reykjanes. In addition to exploring for new sources of energy, this project will provide the first opportunity worldwide to investigate the coupling of hydrothermal and magmatic processes in volcanic systems on a mid-ocean ridge. This will allow a broad array of scientific studies involving water/rock reactions at high temperatures. Supercritical fluids have greatly enhanced rates of mass transfer and chemical reaction. Active processes in such deep high-temperature reaction zones that control fluid compositions on mid-ocean ridges have never before been available for such comprehensive direct sampling and study.

  17. Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet energy balance driving the surface melt, developed using the regional climate MAR model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Franco

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, 25 km-simulations are performed over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, using the regional climate model MAR forced by four RCP scenarios from two CMIP5 global circulation models, in order to investigate the projected changes of the surface energy balance (SEB components driving the surface melt. Analysis of 2000–2100 melt anomalies compared to melt results over 1980–1999 reveals an exponential relationship of the GrIS surface melt rate simulated by MAR to the near-surface temperature (TAS anomalies, mainly due to the surface albedo positive feedback associated with the extension of bare ice areas in summer. On the GrIS margins, the future melt anomalies are rather driven by stronger sensible heat fluxes, induced by enhanced warm air advections over the ice sheet. Over the central dry snow zone, the increase of melt surpasses the negative feedback from heavier snowfall inducing therefore a decrease of the summer surface albedo even at the top of the ice sheet. In addition to the incoming longwave flux increase associated to the atmosphere warming, MAR projects an increase of the cloud cover decreasing the ratio of the incoming shortwave versus longwave radiation and dampening the albedo feedback. However, it should be noted that this trend in the cloud cover is contrary to that simulated by ERA-INTERIM-forced MAR over current climate, where the observed melt increase since the 1990's seems rather to be a consequence of more anticyclonic atmospheric conditions. Finally, no significant change is projected in the length of the melt season. This timing highlights the importance of solar radiation in the melt SEB.

  18. Simulations of future sulphur and nitrogen deposition over Europe using meteorological data from three regional climate projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnuz Engardt

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We use a regional model of atmospheric chemistry and transport to investigate trends in sulphur and nitrogen deposition over Europe during the first half of the 21st century. To assess changes due to climate change, the model was operated with meteorology from a regional climate model simulating present and future climates. The sensitivity of the deposition calculations to uncertainties in the climate projections was explored by using output from three different climate models. Changes in anthropogenic air pollution emissions in Europe were extracted from the gridded RCP4.5 emission inventory. The modelling systems were evaluated by comparing average modelled precipitation, deposition and concentrations over a 20-year period with observations collected around the year 2000. We conclude that the deposition of sulphur and nitrogen containing species will mainly be governed by changes in European emissions of these species over the period 2000–2050. If future emissions follow the pathway of the RCP4.5 scenario, Europe can expect significantly lower deposition of sulphur and oxidised nitrogen in 2050 compared to 2000. For reduced nitrogen, large areas of western Europe will receive considerably more deposition in 2050 than in 2000, due to feedback of decreased sulphur concentrations on the atmospheric turnover time of reduced nitrogen. Domain averaged reductions of total deposition from 2000 to 2050 are 63, 41 and 0.9% for sulphur, oxidised- and reduced nitrogen, respectively. Climate change results in decreased wet deposition of sulphur and reduced nitrogen leading to increased atmospheric turnover time of these species. Climate and emission changes lead to decreased atmospheric turnover times of reduced nitrogen but increased atmospheric turnover times of sulphur and oxidised nitrogen. These relations are likely leading to altered source-receptor relations in the future.

  19. How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etkind, S N; Bone, A E; Gomes, B; Lovell, N; Evans, C J; Higginson, I J; Murtagh, F E M

    2017-05-18

    Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries. We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure. By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need. If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with

  20. Projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laufkötter, Charlotte; Vogt, Meike; Gruber, Nicolas; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Doney, Scott C.; Dunne, John P.; Hauck, Judith; John, Jasmin G.; Lima, Ivan D.; Seferian, Roland; Völker, Christoph

    2016-07-01

    Accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralisation of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between -1 and -12 %. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralisation is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralisation or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralisation. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11-94 % in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6-3.8 times higher than their

  1. No. 3398 law project modified by the Senate relative to the energy sector; No. 3398 projet de Loi modifie par le Senat relatif au secteur de l'energie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-10-15

    This law project concerns the market opening and the free choice of the consumers, the dispositions relative to the electricity and gas distribution and the dispositions relative to the Gaz De France capital and the government control. (A.L.B.)

  2. Law project aiming to enforce the maritime transport safety and fight against the sea pollutions; Proposition de loi tendant a renforcer la securite du transport maritime et a lutter contre les pollutions marines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-12-01

    Facing the increase of the maritime transport, the poor quality of the ships and the flag of convenience problem, this law project is proposed. It concerns the ships maintenance and safety standards, the delivery of a control certificate, the social rights of the sailors, the coasts and ports access control. (A.L.B.)

  3. World law

    OpenAIRE

    Berman, Harold J.; Robert W. Woodruff; James Barr Ames

    1999-01-01

    In the third millennium of the Christian era, which is characterised by the emergence of a world economy and eventually a world society, the concept of world law is needed to embrace not only the traditional disciplines of public international law, and comparative law, but also the common underlying legal principles applicable in world trade, world finance, transnational transfer of technology and other fields of world economic law, as well as in such emerging fields as the protection of the ...

  4. The Future of Utility Customer-Funded Energy Efficiency Programs in the United States: Projected Spending and Savings to 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Goldman, Charles [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hoffman, Ian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Billingsley, Megan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-09-11

    We develop projections of future spending on, and savings from, energy efficiency programs funded by electric and gas utility customers in the United States, under three scenarios through 2025. Our analysis, which updates a previous LBNL study, relies on detailed bottom-up modeling of current state energy efficiency policies, regulatory decisions, and demand-side management and utility resource plans. The three scenarios are intended to represent a range of potential outcomes under the current policy environment (i.e., without considering possible major new policy developments). By 2025, spending on electric and gas efficiency programs (excluding load management programs) is projected to double from 2010 levels to $9.5 billion in the medium case, compared to $15.6 billion in the high case and $6.5 billion in the low case. Compliance with statewide legislative or regulatory savings or spending targets is the primary driver for the increase in electric program spending through 2025, though a significant share of the increase is also driven by utility DSM planning activity and integrated resource planning. Our analysis suggests that electric efficiency program spending may approach a more even geographic distribution over time in terms of absolute dollars spent, with the Northeastern and Western states declining from over 70% of total U.S. spending in 2010 to slightly more than 50% in 2025, with the South and Midwest splitting the remainder roughly evenly. Under our medium case scenario, annual incremental savings from customer-funded electric energy efficiency programs increase from 18.4 TWh in 2010 in the U.S. (which is about 0.5% of electric utility retail sales) to 28.8 TWh in 2025 (0.8% of retail sales). These savings would offset the majority of load growth in the Energy Information Administration’s most recent reference case forecast, given specific assumptions about the extent to which future energy efficiency program savings are captured in that forecast

  5. Impacts of Future Climate Change on California Perennial Crop Yields: Model Projections with Climate and Crop Uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lobell, D; Field, C; Cahill, K; Bonfils, C

    2006-01-10

    Most research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has focused on the major annual crops, yet perennial cropping systems are less adaptable and thus potentially more susceptible to damage. Improved assessments of yield responses to future climate are needed to prioritize adaptation strategies in the many regions where perennial crops are economically and culturally important. These impact assessments, in turn, must rely on climate and crop models that contain often poorly defined uncertainties. We evaluated the impact of climate change on six major perennial crops in California: wine grapes, almonds, table grapes, oranges, walnuts, and avocados. Outputs from multiple climate models were used to evaluate climate uncertainty, while multiple statistical crop models, derived by resampling historical databases, were used to address crop response uncertainties. We find that, despite these uncertainties, climate change in California is very likely to put downward pressure on yields of almonds, walnuts, avocados, and table grapes by 2050. Without CO{sub 2} fertilization or adaptation measures, projected losses range from 0 to >40% depending on the crop and the trajectory of climate change. Climate change uncertainty generally had a larger impact on projections than crop model uncertainty, although the latter was substantial for several crops. Opportunities for expansion into cooler regions are identified, but this adaptation would require substantial investments and may be limited by non-climatic constraints. Given the long time scales for growth and production of orchards and vineyards ({approx}30 years), climate change should be an important factor in selecting perennial varieties and deciding whether and where perennials should be planted.

  6. Future Projections from the Effects of Heat Stress on Livestock: for the US and New England Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, E.; Buzan, J. R.; Huber, M.; Krishnan, S.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate change will result in variations in heat stress experienced by livestock, which will consequently impact health, well-being, and yield. In this study, we estimate future yield changes for livestock due to heat stress in New England. We use the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), a component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that is developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The simulation uses RCP8.5 boundary conditions, and is driven by CCSM4 atmospheric forcing from the CMIP5 archive, that conducts simulations of the past and next century. Heat stress metrics are calculated using the HumanIndexMod in CLM4.5 for the early and late 21st century. For example, the humidity index for comfort and physiology, wet bulb temperature and swamp cooler efficiency. Results indicate that in the New England Region, temperatures will increase by 4 °C and in New Hampshire specifically by 3 °C. Temperature humidity index for comfort and physiology, swamp cooler efficiency and wet bulb are all projected to rise by the end of the century. While it is obvious that these elevations in temperature will have a negative effect on animals inhibiting their performance and output, our analysis also emphasizes the role of changes in humidity in heat stress. We show that heat stress caused by temperature and humidity increases, will decrease overall production yield for dairy and beef cattle, sows, finishing hogs and poultry, as a result of heat stress and other major climatic factors. We estimate and discuss resulting economic losses for the livestock industries and the impact in the United States and New England Region.

  7. Increased dry-season length over southern Amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Rong; Yin, Lei; Li, Wenhong; Arias, Paola A; Dickinson, Robert E; Huang, Lei; Chakraborty, Sudip; Fernandes, Katia; Liebmann, Brant; Fisher, Rosie; Myneni, Ranga B

    2013-11-05

    We have observed that the dry-season length (DSL) has increased over southern Amazonia since 1979, primarily owing to a delay of its ending dates (dry-season end, DSE), and is accompanied by a prolonged fire season. A poleward shift of the subtropical jet over South America and an increase of local convective inhibition energy in austral winter (June-August) seem to cause the delay of the DSE in austral spring (September-November). These changes cannot be simply linked to the variability of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Although they show some resemblance to the effects of anthropogenic forcings reported in the literature, we cannot attribute them to this cause because of inadequate representation of these processes in the global climate models that were presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report. These models significantly underestimate the variability of the DSE and DSL and their controlling processes. Such biases imply that the future change of the DSE and DSL may be underestimated by the climate projections provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report models. Although it is not clear whether the observed increase of the DSL will continue in the future, were it to continue at half the rate of that observed, the long DSL and fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The large uncertainty shown in this study highlights the need for a focused effort to better understand and simulate these changes over southern Amazonia.

  8. Facing social identity change: interactive effects of current and projected collective identification on expectations regarding future self-esteem and psychological well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Packer, Dominic J; Chasteen, Alison L; Kang, Sonia K

    2011-09-01

    We hypothesized that prospective changes in social identity that involve transitioning out of a currently valued group would be associated with negative expectations regarding future states, but that this effect would be mitigated among individuals who expect to belong to a future in-group of similar importance. Consistent with predictions, strongly identified young adults in two studies projected significantly lower self-esteem/psychological well-being in old age than weakly identified young adults. Critically, however, this effect was fully attenuated if they expected to identify with their future aged in-group when they were old. Study 2 showed that the capacity for projected identification to buffer projected well-being among strongly identified young adults was contingent on their membership in the future in-group being highly salient. Analyses of participants' written descriptions of old age (Study 1) and a valence manipulation (Study 2) indicated that these effects were not attributable to the anticipated valence of future selves/states, but rather to the value placed on current and future group memberships.

  9. Updated Budget Projections: 2016 to 2026

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    projections in that report accounted for the direct budgetary effects of legislation enacted through the end of December 2015, they were based on the economic... assets . Beyond the 10-year period, if current laws remained in place, the pressures that contributed to rising deficits during the baseline period...neutral benchmark against which potential changes in law can be measured . Future legislative action could lead to markedly different outcomes—but

  10. Large-scale atmospheric circulation and local particulate matter concentrations in Bavaria - from current observations to future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Christoph; Weitnauer, Claudia; Brosy, Caroline; Hald, Cornelius; Lochbihler, Kai; Siegmund, Stefan; Jacobeit, Jucundus

    2016-04-01

    Particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10) may have distinct adverse effects on human health. Spatial and temporal variations in PM10 concentrations reflect local emission rates, but are as well influenced by the local and synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions. Against this background, it can be furthermore argued that potential future climate change and associated variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation and local meteorological parameters will probably provoke corresponding changes in future PM10 concentration levels. The DFG-funded research project „Particulate matter and climate change in Bavaria" aimed at establishing quantitative relationships between daily and monthly PM10 indices at different Bavarian urban stations and the corresponding large-scale atmospheric circulation as well as local meteorological conditions. To this end, several statistical downscaling approaches have been developed for the period 1980 to 2011. PM10 data from 19 stations from the air quality monitoring network (LÜB) of the Bavarian Environmental Agency (LfU) have been utilized as predictands. Large-scale atmospheric gridded data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data base and local meteorological observational data provided by the German Meteorological Service (DWD) served as predictors. The downscaling approaches encompass the synoptic downscaling of daily PM10 concentrations and several multivariate statistical models for the estimation of daily and monthly PM10, i.e.monthly mean and number of days exceeding a certain PM10 concentration threshold. Both techniques utilize objective circulation type classifications, which have been optimized with respect to their synoptic skill for the target variable PM10. All downscaling approaches have been evaluated via cross validation using varying subintervals of the 1980-2011 period as calibration and validation periods respectively. The most suitable - in terms of model skill determined from cross

  11. Assessing Future Changes in Climate Extremes using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H.

    2015-12-01

    Heat waves will become more frequent in the future under a warming climate. Their duration and intensity will increase as well. In order to get a better understanding of the trend of heat wave occurrence and intensity over the US, this study systematically analyzes daily maximum temperatures from an ensemble of 21 CMIP5 GCMs from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) datasets. We define the occurance of a heat wave as a period of 3 (or more) consecutive days with daily maximum temperature above a threshold, and the intensity of the heat wave is the accumulated daily maximum temperatures over its duration. We calculated the two metrics for the period 1950-2099 over US for all models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). We also test two different approaches to estimate the ensemble means of the heat wave metrics. The first approach calculates the numbers and intensity of heat waves for each individual model and then calculated the ensemble mean over 21 models of these two metrics, while the second approach first calculates the ensemble mean of the maximum temperatures over 21 different models and then estimates the annually heat wave numbers and heat wave intensity. The two approaches lead to remarkably different results: The results from the first method detect significant increasing trend of annually heat wave frequency and intensity in each individual GCMs. The mean durations of the heat waves are also found to be steadly increasing during the rest of the 21st century. The results from the second method show less-significant increasing trend of annually heat wave numbers. However the intensity of heat waves in the second approach is much larger than that calculated from the first way. These results confirms our hypothesis that both the occurance and the intensity of heat waves will increase in the future. They also emphasize that caution must be taken in processing high-frequency (daily or above) climate data in

  12. Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem—first results from multi-model ensemble simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meier, H E Markus; Andersson, Helén C; Arheimer, Berit

    2012-01-01

    forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961–2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air- and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from......Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850–2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850–2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient...

  13. Response of acid mobilization of iron-containing mineral dust to improvement of air quality projected in the future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ito

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Acidification of dust aerosols may increase aerosol iron (Fe solubility, which is linked to mineral properties. Combustion aerosols can also elevate aerosol iron solubility when aerosol loading is low. Here, we use an atmospheric chemical transport model to investigate the deposition of filterable iron and its response to changes in anthropogenic emissions of both combustion aerosols and precursor gases. By introducing three classes of iron-containing minerals into the detailed aerosol chemistry model, we provide a theoretical examination of the effects of different dissolution behaviors on the acid mobilization of iron. Comparisons of modeled Fe dissolution curves with the measured dissolution rates for African (Tibesti and Asian (Beijing dust samples show overall good agreement under acidic conditions. The improved treatment of Fe in mineral dust and its dissolution scheme results in reasonable predictive capability for iron solubility over the oceans in the Northern Hemisphere. Our model results suggest that the improvement of air quality projected in the future will lead to a decrease of the filterable iron deposition from iron-containing mineral dust to the northeastern Pacific due to less acidification in Asian dust, which is mainly associated with the reduction of nitrogen oxides (NOx emissions. These results could have important implications for iron fertilization of phytoplankton growth, and highlight the necessity of improving the process-based quantitative understanding of the response of the chemical modification in iron-containing minerals to environmental changes.

  14. An Investigation of Summertime Inland Water Body Temperatures in California and Nevada (USA): Recent Trends and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healey, Nathan; Hook, Simon; Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Toffolon, Marco; Radocinski, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Inland water body temperature has been identified as an ideal indicator of potential climate change. Understanding inland water body temperature trends is important for forecasting impacts to limnological, biological, and hydrological resources. Many inland water bodies are situated in remote locations with incomplete data records of in-situ monitoring or lack in-situ observations altogether. Thus, the utilization of satellite data is essential for understanding the behavior of global inland water body temperatures. Part of this research provides an analysis of summertime (July-September) temperature trends in the largest California/Nevada (USA) inland water bodies between 1991 and 2015. We examine satellite temperature retrievals from ATSR (ATSR-1, ATSR-2, AATSR), MODIS (Terra and Aqua), and VIIRS sensors. Our findings indicate that inland water body temperatures in the western United States were rapidly warming between 1991 and 2009, but since then trends have been decreasing. This research also includes implementation of a model called air2water to predict future inland water body surface temperature through the sole input of air temperature. Using projections from CMIP5-CCSM4 output, our model indicates that Lake Tahoe (USA) is expected to experience an increase of roughly 3 °C by 2100.

  15. Germany's future electors : developments of the German electorate in times of demographic change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sánchez Gassen, N.E.

    2015-01-01

    Nora E. Sánchez Gassen analyses how demographic trends and electoral law have influenced the German electorate in the past and projects their future impact. A set of population projections illustrates how the size and age structure of the electorate will change until 2030 due to ongoing demographic

  16. The future of olive plantation systems on sloping and mountainous land; scenarios for production and natural resource conservation, First Annual Report. EU project Olivero:

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fleskens, L.; Stroosnijder, L.; Graaff, de J.

    2004-01-01

    The project will devote itself to the future of olive plantation systems on sloping and mountainous land in southern Europe. These systems have been affected by emigration of local populations and fierce competition from low land plantations and from non-EU countries, and are currently neither produ

  17. Focal relationships and the environment of project marketing. A literature review with suggestions for practitioners and future research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skaates, Maria Anne; Tikkanen, Henrikki

    2000-01-01

    of the review is upon the connection between focal relationships and the wider environment in which project marketing and systems selling takes place. First, several common definitions of projects and project marketing are presented and discussed. Second, the implications of three specific features of project...... business - discontinuity, uniqueness, and complexity - for the focal relationship and the broader marketing environment are considered at the level of multiple projects. Third, three overlapping types of postures that project-selling firms can adopt in relation to their focal relationships...

  18. An Optional Instrument for European Insurance Contract Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helmut Heiss

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The Principles of European Insurance Contract Law, also referred tousing the acronym PEICL, were published in September 2009. They are the result of ten years of academic work undertaken by the"Restatement of European Insurance Contract Law" Project Group. In the time since its establishment in 1999, the project has been transformed from being a stand-alone project to a part of the CoPECL (Common Principles of European Insurance Contract Law network, drafting a specific part of the Common Frame of Reference. Having continually worked under the guiding principle that "the law of insurance [in Europe] must be one," it now represents a serious option for providing Europe with a single legal framework for insurance contracts.Despite the European Council's proclamations that the Common Frame of Reference will remain a non-binding instrument, the implementation of one or more optional instruments in the future does not appear to beimprobable considering recent developments. The possibility of anoptional instrument has been expressed more than once by the European Commission in its Action Plan and Communication on European Contract Law. Other indications in favour of an optional instrument include the European Parliament's repeated references to the Common Frame of Reference as providing, at the very least, a model for a futureoptional instrument, as well as the EESC's earlier proposal of anoptional instrument as an alternative to standardising insurancecontract law. The preparation by the EESC of another (own-initiative opinion on European contract law is underway, and its presentation is anticipated in 2010. Hence, the optional instrument is evidently the subject of serious political deliberation. Using Article 1:102, the Principles of European Insurance Contract Law represent a prototype for such an instrument.

  19. An Optional Instrument for European Insurance Contract Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mandeep Lakhan

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The Principles of European Insurance Contract Law, also referred tousing the acronym PEICL, were published in September 2009. They are the result of ten years of academic work undertaken by the"Restatement of European Insurance Contract Law" Project Group. In the time since its establishment in 1999, the project has been transformed from being a stand-alone project to a part of the CoPECL (Common Principles of European Insurance Contract Law network, drafting a specific part of the Common Frame of Reference. Having continually worked under the guiding principle that "the law of insurance [in Europe] must be one," it now represents a serious option for providing Europe with a single legal framework for insurance contracts. Despite the European Council's proclamations that the Common Frame of Reference will remain a non-binding instrument, the implementation of one or more optional instruments in the future does not appear to beimprobable considering recent developments. The possibility of anoptional instrument has been expressed more than once by the European Commission in its Action Plan and Communication on European Contract Law. Other indications in favour of an optional instrument include the European Parliament's repeated references to the Common Frame of Reference as providing, at the very least, a model for a futureoptional instrument, as well as the EESC's earlier proposal of anoptional instrument as an alternative to standardising insurancecontract law. The preparation by the EESC of another (own-initiative opinion on European contract law is underway, and its presentation is anticipated in 2010. Hence, the optional instrument is evidently the subject of serious political deliberation. Using Article 1:102, the Principles of European Insurance Contract Law represent a prototype for such an instrument.

  20. Property Law

    OpenAIRE

    Dean Lueck; Thomas J. Miceli

    2004-01-01

    This chapter examines the economics of property rights and property law. Property law is a fundamental part of social organization and is also fundamental to the operation of the economy because it defines and protects the bundle of rights that constitute property. Property law thereby creates incentives to protect and invest in assets and establishes a legal framework within which market exchange of assets can take place. The purpose of this chapter is to show how the economics of property r...

  1. Online Law Dictionaries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Sandro

    2012-01-01

    Online dictionaries that assist users in writing legal texts in English as a foreign language are important lexicographic tools. They can help law students bridge the factual and linguistic gaps between the two legal universes involved. However, existing online law dictionaries with English...... as the target language primarily focus on terms, but students also need to write the remainder of the texts in factually and linguistically correct English. It is therefore important to have a sound theoretical foundation before embarking on a dictionary project that aims to help law students communicate...... by containing the types of data that can best satisfy the needs of students at the three stages of legal text production: draft writing, revising and editing. The theoretical aspects discussed are supported by examples from the online CISG Dictionary, which is a lexicographic tool developed to help Danish law...

  2. Online Law Dictionaries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Sandro

    2012-01-01

    Online dictionaries that assist users in writing legal texts in English as a foreign language are important lexicographic tools. They can help law students bridge the factual and linguistic gaps between the two legal universes involved. However, existing online law dictionaries with English...... as the target language primarily focus on terms, but students also need to write the remainder of the texts in factually and linguistically correct English. It is therefore important to have a sound theoretical foundation before embarking on a dictionary project that aims to help law students communicate...... by containing the types of data that can best satisfy the needs of students at the three stages of legal text production: draft writing, revising and editing. The theoretical aspects discussed are supported by examples from the online CISG Dictionary, which is a lexicographic tool developed to help Danish law...

  3. Past, present, and future of the marine bird management project: Quadrennial narrative report, June 1980 to December 1983

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This narrative report for the Marine Bird Management Project outlines project accomplishments from 1980 to 1983. The report begins by summarizing the roles and...

  4. 论我国特殊的普通合伙制律师事务所的现状与前景%On the Status Quo and Future Prospects on Law Firms of Special Ordinary Partnership in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    梁婧雯

    2015-01-01

    Law firms of special ordinary partnership is undoubtedly a great undertaking of professional service organizations in the form of legislation during these 10 years. The advantage partnership is specialization, enormous scale and internationalization. However, law firms of special ordinary partnership are not quite popular because standards for setting up such a firm are too high and there are some misunderstandings concerning the legal liabilities of the firm. The solution is to establish the rule of direct liability, improve the annual inspection system of a law firm, perfect relevant regulations and seek positive policies. By doing so, we can foresee a prosperous future of law firms of special ordinary partnership in China.%特殊的普通合伙制无疑是近十年来我国立法在专业服务机构组织形式上的一大创举。特殊的普通合伙制律师事务所优势在于专业化、规模化、国际化。特殊的普通合伙制律师事务所小众化的主要原因是设立条件较高、关于法律责任承担存在错误认识等。解决之道是:建立“直索责任”规则;改良律师事务所年检制度;完善法规,政策支持。如此,特殊的普通合伙制中国律师事务所则必有光明的未来。

  5. INDIRECT INFLUENCE OF COMMUNITY LAW OVER NATIONAL CRIMINAL LAW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela GORUNESCU

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The problem of influence of Community law over national criminal law is difficult to be solved even now, because criminal law is very closely related to state sovereignty. However, at European level it is a series of unifying trends in the field of criminal law. This includes: the Corpus Juris Project to develop a number of guiding principles on the protection through criminal law of financial interests of EU, within the European judiciary space; the project of founding a European Prosecutor , which would have extended jurisdiction over the entire European judicial area; at the doctrinaire level the project called ”The Criminal Code of the European Union ” result of encoding the provisions relevant for the Community criminal law and published likewise. Romanian criminal law could not remain outside these trends and this paper reveal some internal acts that reflect the trends observed at European level. Some of this acts have a direct influence, and some of them an indirect influence. An example is represented by art. 3022 of the Romanian Penal Code, which, in the basic variant, besides any operations regarding the import of wastes and residue of any kind or other dangerous goods for public health and environment, incriminates the placing or transit operations on the country without observing the laws. In this text, the phrase "without observing the laws" must be reported to both national regulations and international legal instruments.

  6. Competition Law in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Anand Raj; Cynthia Lian; Wen-Ly Chin

    2015-01-01

    There is still some way for Malaysia to go and the lack of merger control (for the foreseeable future) remains a significant shortcoming in the Malaysian competition law regime at this stage. Anand Raj, Cynthia Lian, & Wen-Ly Chin (Shearn Delamore & Co., Kuala Lumpur)

  7. Glomed-Land: a research project to study the effect of global change in contrasted mediterranean landscapes and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Sinoga, José D.; Hueso-González, Paloma; León-Gross, Teodoro; Molina, Julián; Remond, Ricardo; Martínez-Murillo, Juan F.

    2017-04-01

    The Global Change is referred to the occurrence of great environmental changes associated to climatic fluctuations and human activity as wel (Vitousek et al., 1997; Steffen et al., 2004; Dearing et al., 2006). García-Ruiz et al. (2015) indicated that the relief varies very slowly in time while the changes in vegetation, overland flow generation and erosion occurred very rapidly and conditioned by their interactions and the climate variability as well. The GLOMED-LAND Project has its bases and scientific justification on the combination of the experience of the members of the research team, from one side, in the analysis of the dynamics and eco-geomorphological and climatic processes in Mediterranean environments of southern Spain, in the context of current Global change, and from another, in the study, development and application of new tools for simulation and modelling of future scenarios, and finally, in the analysis of the impact that society exercises the broadcast media related to the problem derived from the awareness and adaptation to Global change. Climate change (CC), directly affects the elements that compose the landscape. Both in the analysis of future climate scenarios raised by the IPCC (2013), such as the regionalisation carried out by AEMET, the Mediterranean region and, especially, the South of Spain, - with its defined longitudinal pluviometric gradient - configured as one of the areas of greatest uncertainty, reflected in a higher concentration of temporal rainfall, and even a reduction in the rainfall. Faced with this situation, the CC can modify the current landscape setting, with all the environmental impacts that this would entail for the terrestrial ecosystems and the systemic services rendered to the society. The combination of different work scales allows the analysis of the dynamics of the landscape and the consequence of its modifications on, hydro-geomorphological processes, closely related to degradation processes that can affect the

  8. Segal's Law, 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and the perils of foodborne pathogen detection within the American Gut Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pettengill, James B; Rand, Hugh

    2017-01-01

    Obtaining human population level estimates of the prevalence of foodborne pathogens is critical for understanding outbreaks and ameliorating such threats to public health. Estimates are difficult to obtain due to logistic and financial constraints, but citizen science initiatives like that of the American Gut Project (AGP) represent a potential source of information concerning enteric pathogens. With an emphasis on genera Listeria and Salmonella, we sought to document the prevalence of those two taxa within the AGP samples. The results provided by AGP suggest a surprising 14% and 2% of samples contained Salmonella and Listeria, respectively. However, a reanalysis of those AGP sequences described here indicated that results depend greatly on the algorithm for assigning taxonomy and differences persisted across both a range of parameter settings and different reference databases (i.e., Greengenes and HITdb). These results are perhaps to be expected given that AGP sequenced the V4 region of 16S rRNA gene, which may not provide good resolution at the lower taxonomic levels (e.g., species), but it was surprising how often methods differ in classifying reads-even at higher taxonomic ranks (e.g., family). This highlights the misleading conclusions that can be reached when relying on a single method that is not a gold standard; this is the essence of Segal's Law: an individual with one watch knows what time it is but an individual with two is never sure. Our results point to the need for an appropriate molecular marker for the taxonomic resolution of interest, and calls for the development of more conservative classification methods that are fit for purpose. Thus, with 16S rRNA gene datasets, one must be cautious regarding the detection of taxonomic groups of public health interest (e.g., culture independent identification of foodborne pathogens or taxa associated with a given phenotype).

  9. Segal’s Law, 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and the perils of foodborne pathogen detection within the American Gut Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James B. Pettengill

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Obtaining human population level estimates of the prevalence of foodborne pathogens is critical for understanding outbreaks and ameliorating such threats to public health. Estimates are difficult to obtain due to logistic and financial constraints, but citizen science initiatives like that of the American Gut Project (AGP represent a potential source of information concerning enteric pathogens. With an emphasis on genera Listeria and Salmonella, we sought to document the prevalence of those two taxa within the AGP samples. The results provided by AGP suggest a surprising 14% and 2% of samples contained Salmonella and Listeria, respectively. However, a reanalysis of those AGP sequences described here indicated that results depend greatly on the algorithm for assigning taxonomy and differences persisted across both a range of parameter settings and different reference databases (i.e., Greengenes and HITdb. These results are perhaps to be expected given that AGP sequenced the V4 region of 16S rRNA gene, which may not provide good resolution at the lower taxonomic levels (e.g., species, but it was surprising how often methods differ in classifying reads—even at higher taxonomic ranks (e.g., family. This highlights the misleading conclusions that can be reached when relying on a single method that is not a gold standard; this is the essence of Segal’s Law: an individual with one watch knows what time it is but an individual with two is never sure. Our results point to the need for an appropriate molecular marker for the taxonomic resolution of interest, and calls for the development of more conservative classification methods that are fit for purpose. Thus, with 16S rRNA gene datasets, one must be cautious regarding the detection of taxonomic groups of public health interest (e.g., culture independent identification of foodborne pathogens or taxa associated with a given phenotype.

  10. Evaluation of future policy instruments - Sub-Project 2; Utvaerdering av framtida styrmedel - Delprojekt 2 inom projektet Perspektiv paa framtida avfallsbehandling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bisaillon, Mattias; Dahlen, Lisa; Detterfelt, Lia; Edner, Stig; Toren, Johan

    2013-09-01

    There are several recently introduced and future possible policy instruments that are of great interest to study in order to understand the future for the Swedish waste treatment market. In the energy sector, the use of system analysis models has proven to be effective in order to understand the effects and consequences of policy instruments. In the waste sector, however, such analyses have only been conducted sporadically. This in spite of the introduction of highly influential policy instruments such as producer responsibility, landfill tax and landfill ban, which together have contributed to landfilling of Swedish household waste practically has ceased. The goal of this project was, by using system analysis models, to study and evaluate the newly introduced and future possible policy instruments which affect Swedish waste treatment. The assessment was made in terms of how policy instruments affect: - the distribution of treatment technologies, - waste amounts, - greenhouse gas emissions and - the economics of waste treatment. The project was performed during 2011 and 2012 as a part of the research project 'Perspectives on sustainable waste treatment (PFA)'. During the project, discussions have taken place within the working group and the reference group on which instruments are most interesting and relevant to study. Furthermore, opinions have been gathered from the association Swedish Waste Managements policy instrument group and from various players in the industry at conferences, presentations and workshops.

  11. Evaluation of the impacts study of the law project Grenelle 1; Commentaires sur l'etude d'impact du projet de loi Grenelle 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bacher, P

    2009-01-15

    In the law Grenelle 1, the authors focused on the energy policy and its relation with the climatic change, more specially the comparison of the costs and benefits of the law. General observations are presented before a sectoral analysis: building, transports, climate and energy. (A.L.B.)

  12. Law 302.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manitoba Dept. of Education, Winnipeg.

    This publication outlines a law course intended as part of a business education program in the secondary schools of Manitoba, Canada. The one credit course of study should be taught over a period of 110-120 hours of instruction. It provides students with an introduction to the principles, practices, and consequences of law with regard to torts,…

  13. People Centered Innovation: Enabling Lean Integrated Project Delivery and Disrupting the Construction Industry for a More Sustainable Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Paolillo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available People-centered innovation is a paradigm shift in the construction industry. It is derived from the supposition that people not methods, schedules, or budgets deliver projects. Our data suggest that a multilevel, multidisciplinary project team through shared vision, values, and a common vernacular defines, designs, and delivers more successful projects than traditional methods. These projects meet the needs of shareholders, the community, stakeholders, and the planet. We employ the concepts of emotional intelligence and agency theory to explain an integrated project delivery (IPD construction project using lean tactics that not only delivered, but also exceeded expectations resulting in a six-month schedule acceleration and $60M savings over the original estimated cost of the project calculated assuming traditional project delivery methods. The safety rating for this project was 50% better than the national average and the expected improvement in operating margin for the new building is 33% greater. This paper introduces the notion of people-centered innovation to an industry that has struggled to adapt and show positive results over recent decades. Our case study describes the significance of people-centered innovation in construction project delivery. We discuss the implications for the construction industry going forward.

  14. Bernese Developments in Planetary Geodesy: our Latest Solution of Moon Gravity Field and Tides and an Outlook on Future Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertone, S.; Arnold, D.; Jaeggi, A.; Hosseini, A.

    2016-12-01

    -induced gravity.Our latest developments and the experience gained with GRAIL open the way to further research projects in planetary geodesy at AIUB. We present an overview of future applications of the Bernese GNSS Software in planetary research and of our ongoing collaborations, including BepiColombo orbit simulations and altimetry studies.

  15. 引黄工程水源地年径流量长期演变规律研究%Study on long-term evolution law of annual runoff in water source of Yellow river diversion project

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐聪; 冯民权

    2014-01-01

    By use of Kendall trend test method , R/S analysis method , run-length analysis method and Markov process analysis method , the paper analyzed the long-term evolution law of annual runoff at the water source of central Yellow River diversion project .The annual runoff timing at Hequ station of the Yellow River showed a significant decreasing trend during the whole period 1978 to 2010 .According to the result,the runoff will continue to show a more significant decreasing trend in the future .The occur-rence probability of continuous multi-annual high flow state , normal flow state and low flow state de-creased with the increase of consecutive years .In the long-term evolution process of high and low state , the reproduce time of partial low flow year is the shortest and the reproduce time of partial high flow year is the longest .The annual runoff at water source of the central Yellow River diversion project will show a more significant decreasing trend in the future;In the process of high and low evolution of annual runoff , it is more likely to appear low flow year .The study can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable devel-opment and utilization of water resources on the Yellow River and the regulation of supply and demand of the central Yellow River diversion project .%利用Kendall秩次相关检验法、R/S分析法、游程分析法和马尔可夫过程分析法对中部引黄工程水源地年径流量长期演变规律进行分析。黄河河曲站年径流量时序在1978-2010年整个时段内呈现出显著的减少趋势,并且可以预测出未来河曲站的年径流量将继续呈较显著减少趋势;河曲站连丰、连平和连枯状态的出现概率都随连续年数的增加而减小;在长期丰枯演化过程中,偏枯年的重现时间最短,偏丰年的重现时间最长。中部引黄工程水源地年径流量未来呈较显著的减少趋势;在年径流长期丰枯演化过程中,出现偏枯年的可能性

  16. Case - Case-Law - Law

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sadl, Urska

    2013-01-01

    Reasoning of the Court of Justice of the European Union – Constr uction of arguments in the case-law of the Court – Citation technique – The use of formulas to transform case-law into ‘law’ – ‘Formulaic style’ – European citizenship as a fundamental status – Ruiz Zambrano – Reasoning from...

  17. Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah L Shafer

    Full Text Available Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0-58.0°N latitude by 136.6-103.0°W longitude. LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070-2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47, GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres, UKMO-HadCM3 produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

  18. Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

    2015-01-01

    Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

  19. Hydrological changes in the U.S. Northeast using the Connecticut River Basin as a case study: Part 2. Projections of the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parr, Dana; Wang, Guiling; Ahmed, Kazi F.

    2015-10-01

    The focus of this study is on whether the recent warming-induced hydrologic changes in the U.S. Northeast will continue in the future (2046-2065) and how future changes of precipitation characteristics may influence other hydrological processes in the Connecticut River Basin (CRB). Our previous study (Parr and Wang 2014) examines the impact of climate changes during 1950-2011 on hydrological processes in the Northeast using the CRB as a case study. Our results showed a clear increase of precipitation intensity and suggested that the basin is entering a wetter regime more subject to meteorological flood conditions than to drought conditions. For this future analysis, three North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) models are used to derive the meteorological forcing for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, using both present day and the future projected A1B scenario climate. Our future projections indicate wetter winters including significantly greater precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture, decreases to spring runoff, and enhanced ET for all four seasons. We also find a shift toward earlier and faster snow melting and an earlier date of peak discharge. Future precipitation extremes show a decreased amount compared to the early 21st Century, but increased when compared to our entire historic period or the late 20th Century, as well as a consistently increasing mean intensity throughout the past and future. Analyses of extreme hydrologic events reveals changing characteristics of flooding involving increasing duration but decreasing frequency of flood events as well as a reduction of drought risk.

  20. The SOLUTIONS project : Challenges and responses for present and future emerging pollutants in land and water resources management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brack, Werner; Altenburger, Rolf; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Krauss, Martin; López Herráez, David; van Gils, Jos; Slobodnik, Jaroslav; Munthe, John; Gawlik, Bernd Manfred; van Wezel, Annemarie; Schriks, Merijn; Hollender, Juliane; Tollefsen, Knut Erik; Mekenyan, Ovanes; Dimitrov, Saby; Bunke, Dirk; Cousins, Ian; Posthuma, Leo; van den Brink, Paul J.; López de Alda, Miren; Barceló, Damià; Faust, Michael; Kortenkamp, Andreas; Scrimshaw, Mark; Ignatova, Svetlana; Engelen, Guy; Massmann, Gudrun; Lemkine, Gregory; Teodorovic, Ivana; Walz, Karl Heinz; Dulio, Valeria; Jonker, Michiel T O; Jäger, Felix; Chipman, Kevin; Falciani, Francesco; Liska, Igor; Rooke, David; Zhang, Xiaowei; Hollert, Henner; Vrana, Branislav; Hilscherova, Klara; Kramer, Kees; Neumann, Steffen; Hammerbacher, Ruth; Backhaus, Thomas; Mack, Juliane; Segner, Helmut; Escher, Beate; de Aragão Umbuzeiro, Gisela

    2015-01-01

    SOLUTIONS (2013 to 2018) is a European Union Seventh Framework Programme Project (EU-FP7). The project aims to deliver a conceptual framework to support the evidence-based development of environmental policies with regard to water quality. SOLUTIONS will develop the tools for the identification, pri

  1. Uncertainty and extreme events in future climate and hydrologic projections for the Pacific Northwest: providing a basis for vulnerability and core/corridor assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littell, Jeremy S.; Mauger, Guillaume S.; Salathe, Eric P.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Lee, Se-Yeun; Stumbaugh, Matt R.; Elsner, Marketa; Norheim, Robert; Lutz, Eric R.; Mantua, Nathan J.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to (1) provide an internally-consistent set of downscaled projections across the Western U.S., (2) include information about projection uncertainty, and (3) assess projected changes of hydrologic extremes. These objectives were designed to address decision support needs for climate adaptation and resource management actions. Specifically, understanding of uncertainty in climate projections – in particular for extreme events – is currently a key scientific and management barrier to adaptation planning and vulnerability assessment. The new dataset fills in the Northwest domain to cover a key gap in the previous dataset, adds additional projections (both from other global climate models and a comparison with dynamical downscaling) and includes an assessment of changes to flow and soil moisture extremes. This new information can be used to assess variations in impacts across the landscape, uncertainty in projections, and how these differ as a function of region, variable, and time period. In this project, existing University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (UW CIG) products were extended to develop a comprehensive data archive that accounts (in a reigorous and physically based way) for climate model uncertainty in future climate and hydrologic scenarios. These products can be used to determine likely impacts on vegetation and aquatic habitat in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, including WA, OR, ID, northwest MT to the continental divide, northern CA, NV, UT, and the Columbia Basin portion of western WY New data series and summaries produced for this project include: 1) extreme statistics for surface hydrology (e.g. frequency of soil moisture and summer water deficit) and streamflow (e.g. the 100-year flood, extreme 7-day low flows with a 10-year recurrence interval); 2) snowpack vulnerability as indicated by the ratio of April 1 snow water to cool-season precipitation; and, 3) uncertainty analyses for multiple climate

  2. Principles of European Contract Law

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, Ole; Beale, Hugh

    This text provides a comprehensive guide to the principles of European contract law. They have been drawn up by an independent body of experts from each Member State of the EU, under a project supported by the European Commission and many other organizations. The principles are stated in the form...... of articles, with a detailed commentary explaining the purpose and operation of each article and its relation to the remainder. Each article also has extensive comparative notes surveying the national laws and other international provisions on the topic. "The Principles of European Contract Law Parts I &...... in developing a common European legal culture. The European Parliament has twice called for the creation of a European Civil Code. The principles of European contract law are essential steps in these projects. This text provides a comprehensive guide to the Principles of European contract law. They have been...

  3. Principles of European Contract Law

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, Ole; Beale, Hugh

    This text provides a comprehensive guide to the principles of European contract law. They have been drawn up by an independent body of experts from each Member State of the EU, under a project supported by the European Commission and many other organizations. The principles are stated in the form...... of articles, with a detailed commentary explaining the purpose and operation of each article and its relation to the remainder. Each article also has extensive comparative notes surveying the national laws and other international provisions on the topic. "The Principles of European Contract Law Parts I &...... in developing a common European legal culture. The European Parliament has twice called for the creation of a European Civil Code. The principles of European contract law are essential steps in these projects. This text provides a comprehensive guide to the Principles of European contract law. They have been...

  4. Investing in Urban Studies to Ensure Urban Archaeology’s Future: A Response to ‘The Challenges and Opportunities for Mega-infrastructure Projects and Archaeology’

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meredith B Linn

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In reading J. J. Carver’s excellent suggestions for how to better enable archaeology and large urban infrastructure projects to progress to mutual benefit, I found myself in enthusiastic agreement with his point that ‘professional working relationships are the most important challenge for archaeology in mega projects’ and that we must convince project directors, engineers, and site teams that archaeology ‘can enhance the value of the project they are building’ (4. This is especially crucial in cities like New York City (NYC, where government protection of cultural heritage is weaker than in London and where the city’s identity is tied more to its future than its past. In future-oriented cities, it is thus necessary to take Carver’s point even further and to engage people involved in all levels of urban planning and development, both at project sites and within the academic programs that train them, to help bring about a cultural shift in attitudes towards the value of archaeology.

  5. Fractal probability laws.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph

    2008-06-01

    We explore six classes of fractal probability laws defined on the positive half-line: Weibull, Frechét, Lévy, hyper Pareto, hyper beta, and hyper shot noise. Each of these classes admits a unique statistical power-law structure, and is uniquely associated with a certain operation of renormalization. All six classes turn out to be one-dimensional projections of underlying Poisson processes which, in turn, are the unique fixed points of Poissonian renormalizations. The first three classes correspond to linear Poissonian renormalizations and are intimately related to extreme value theory (Weibull, Frechét) and to the central limit theorem (Lévy). The other three classes correspond to nonlinear Poissonian renormalizations. Pareto's law--commonly perceived as the "universal fractal probability distribution"--is merely a special case of the hyper Pareto class.

  6. Laser frequency stabilization and stray light issues for LISA and other future multi-spacecraft missions Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — "The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is a joint NASA/ESA project which will use laser interferometry between drag-free proof masses to measure...

  7. Research on the Legislation of Chinese Space Laws

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Dongwen

    2002-01-01

    1 Need and necessity for the legislation of Chinese space activities --Complying with UN treaties and principles on outer space --Adapting to the requirements of market economy --Promoting the further development of Chinese space activities --Developing international space cooperation 2 Research method for legislation of Chinese space activities The research method is ROCCIPI. This method was introduced into China with the project "Legislation Supports Economy Reform" supported by the UN Office of Development Planning - By analyzing the correlations among the seven factors: Rule, Opportunity, Capacity, Communication, Interest, Process and Ideology, the optimal legal measures can be found . Such analysis and research works on the master law of Chinese space activities have been made in the paper. 3 Research of international treaties &principles on outer space, and of national space laws of other countries. Studies have been made in this paper on many aspects of international outer space laws, such as framework, development stage, current characteristics, new problems will be faced with in new century, and development tendency in the future, etc. Based on the investigation and study of national space laws of other countries, analyses and researches on national space law have been made in the paper from some aspects, such as legislative purpose, legislative aim, legislative form, legislative content and etc, and some enlightenments, which can be used for reference in the legislation of Chinese Space Laws, are found. 4 Framework of Chinese Space Laws The jurisdiction of Chinese Space Laws lies in three areas: space technology - space applications and space science. Chinese Space Laws are divided into 3 levels: Master law, Administration Regulations of the State Council of the P.R.C, Rules of governmental sectors. 5 Conclusions and Suggestions --The legislation of Chinese Space Activities should be strengthened --More attentions should be paid to the research work in

  8. Traffic law enforcement by non-police bodies. The "Escape" Project, Deliverable 4. Project funded by the European Commission under the Transport RTD Programme of the 4th Framework Programme.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heidstra, J. Goldenbeld, C. Gelau, C. Mäkinen, T. Jayet, M.-C. & Evers, C.

    2000-01-01

    To ensure some minimal standard for traffic system operation and safety, a system of traffic laws and regulations is necessary. Enforcement of these traffic laws is believed to influence driving behaviour through a mechanism of deterrence: the threat of legal punishment should convince road users to

  9. Probabilistic Projections of Future Sea-Level Change and Their Implications for Flood Risk Management: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, R. E., III; Delgado, M.; Horton, R. M.; Houser, T.; Little, C. M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Oppenheimer, M.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Strauss, B.; Tebaldi, C.

    2014-12-01

    Global mean sea level (GMSL) rise projections are insufficient for adaptation planning; local decisions require local projections that characterize risk over a range of timeframes and tolerances. We present a global set of local sea level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We present complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling [1]. We illustrate the application of this framework by estimating the joint distribution of future sea-level change and coastal flooding, and associated economic costs [1,2]. In much of the world in the current century, differences in median LSL projections are due primarily to varying levels of non-climatic uplift or subsidence. In the 22nd century and in the high-end tails, larger ice sheet contributions, particularly from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS), contribute significantly to site-to-site differences. Uncertainty in GMSL and most LSL projections is dominated by the uncertain AIS component. Sea-level rise dramatically reshapes flood risk. For example, at the New York City (Battery) tide gauge, our projections indicate a likely (67% probability) 21st century LSL rise under RCP 8.5 of 65--129 cm (1-in-20 chance of exceeding 154 cm). Convolving the distribution of projected sea-level rise with the extreme value distribution of flood return periods indicates that this rise will cause the current 1.80 m `1-in-100 year' flood event to occur an expected nine times over the 21st century -- equivalent to the expected number of `1-in-11 year' floods in the absence of sea-level change. Projected sea-level rise for 2100 under RCP 8.5 would likely place 80-160 billion of current property in New York below the high tide line, with a 1-in-20 chance of losses >190 billion. Even without accounting for potential changes in storms themselves, it would likely increase average annual storm

  10. Analysis of the application of an interdisciplinar project in education of future engineers: assembly of thermal machines with recycled materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Cristina Marques

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Teaching through the four areas of learning development is increasing in educational systems. The methods used for this purpose are: analysis and solving of problems, and development of integrative or interdisciplinary projects. Both use active learning methodologies, making it possible to circumvent the low capacity for concentration and retention of information from today’s students, so globalized and dependent on computers. In this sense, the development of this project aims for the students to manufacture a steam machine with reused/recycled materials, and to present it during a trial lesson. This project was developed in the Fundamentals of Thermodynamics and Engineering and Materials Science courses, taken in the first semester of 2014, and involved 130 students enrolled in the fifth semester of the Production Engineering course at Centro Universitário Padre Anchieta. A total of 28 steam machines were presented and, after prior modification, the majority succeeded in their functioning. Most of the groups used industrial materials and/or industrial tools in order to accomplish their projects. Due to this experience, they could apply their knowledge in both student and professional routines. Based on that, it is believed that the projects may play a role of meaningful learning for students. At the end of the activity, most students signaled their satisfaction with the project and their desire to repeat such activities, which interconnect disciplines. It is possible to conclude that teaching through interdisciplinary projects is an important tool in the teaching of engineering, thus, understanding of knowledge is more articulate and less fragmented. It contributes to the use of science as an element of interpretation and intervention of reality

  11. Multi-model mean nitrogen and sulfur deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): evaluation of historical and projected future changes

    OpenAIRE

    Lamarque, J.-F.; Dentener, F.; Mcconnell, J.; Ro, C.-U.; M. Shaw; Vet, R.; D. Bergmann; Cameron-Smith, P.; Dalsoren, S.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, S. J.; B. Josse; Lee, Y. H.; I. A. MacKenzie

    2013-01-01

    We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000–2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present day (year 2000...

  12. Future discharge of the French tributaries of the Rhine: a semi-distributed multi-model approach using CMIP5 projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; de Lavenne, Alban; Wagner, Jean-Pierre; Perrin, Charles; Gerlinger, Kai; Drogue, Gilles; Renard, Benjamin

    2016-04-01

    Several projects studied the impact of climate change on the Rhine basin during the past years, using the CMIP3 projections (see Explore2070, FLOW MS, RheinBlick2050 or VULNAR), either on the French or German sides. These studies showed the likely decrease of low flows and a high uncertainty regarding the evolution of high flows. This may have tremendous impacts on several aspects related to discharge, including pollution, flood protection, irrigation, rivers ecosystems and drinking water. While focusing on the same basin (or part of it), many differences including the climate scenarios and models, the hydrological models and the study periods used for these projects make the outcomes of these projects difficult to compare rigorously. Therefore the MOSARH21 (stands for MOselle-SArre-RHine discharge in the 21st century) was built to update and homogenise discharge projections for the French tributaries of the Rhine basin. Two types of models were used: the physically-oriented LARSIM model, which is widely used in Germany and was used in one of the previous projects (FLOW MS), and the semi-distributed conceptual GRSD model tested on French catchments for various objectives. Through the use of these two hydrological models and multiple sets of parameters obtained by various calibrations runs, the structural and parametric uncertainties in the hydrological projections were quantified, as they tend to be neglected in climate change impact studies. The focus of the impact analysis is put on low flows, high flows and regime. Although this study considers only French tributaries of the Rhine, it will foster further cooperation on transboundary basins across Europe, and should contribute to propose better bases for the future definition of adaptation strategies between riverine countries.

  13. Influence of climate change on the frequency of daytime temperature inversions and stagnation events in the Po Valley: historical trend and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caserini, Stefano; Giani, Paolo; Cacciamani, Carlo; Ozgen, Senem; Lonati, Giovanni

    2017-02-01

    This work analyzes the frequency of days characterized by daytime temperature inversion and air stagnation events in the Po valley area. The analysis is focused on both historical series and future projections under climate change. Historical sounding data from two different Italian stations are used as well as future projections data, provided by CMCC-CCLM 4-8-19 regional climate model (MED-CORDEX initiative). A new method to detect layers of temperature inversion is also presented. The developed method computes the occurrence of a temperature inversion layer for a given day at 12 UTC without a detailed knowledge of temperature vertical profile. This method was validated using sounding data and applied to the model projections, under two different emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Under RCP4.5 intermediate emissions scenario, the occurrence of temperature inversions is projected to increase by 12 days/year (around + 10%) in the last decade of 21st century compared to 1986-2005 average. However, the increase in temperature inversions seems to be especially concentrated in the warm period. Under RCP8.5 extreme scenario, temperature inversions are still projected to increase, though to a lesser extent compared to RCP4.5 scenario (+ 6 days/year in the last decade of 21st century). A similar trend was found also for air stagnation events, which take into account the variation of precipitation pattern and wind strength. The expected increases are equal to + 13 days/year and + 11 days/year in the last decade of 21st century compared to 1986-2005 average, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively.

  14. N.6 report realized for the economical Affairs Commission on the law project, adopted by the National Assembly after urgency declaration, relative to the energy sector; N.6 rapport fait au nom de la commission des Affaires economiques sur le projet de loi, adopte par l'Assemblee Nationale apres declaration d'urgence, relatif au secteur de l'energie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poniatowski, L

    2006-10-15

    This law project concerns the organization of the french energy sector and the definition of the public utilities. After a presentation of the juridical environment of the european energy sector, the author shows, in the framework of the world energy situation, that the evolution of the juridical aspects of Gaz de France answers a real necessity. He then presents the initial law project dispositions, the modifications of the National Assembly and the amendment of the commission. (A.L.B.)

  15. Secrets Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luz Helena Guamanzara Torres

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a review of the book The Law of Secrets, of the author Juan Carlos Martínez-Villalba Riofrío studying the secrets and how law does protect. To this end, the author has analyzed the general theory of secrecy, secrets and methodology, its overall rating, essential elements and their different legal dimensions, the secret as a subjective right. It also establishes that professional secrecy is protected by constitutional principles such as the right to privacy.

  16. Direito e Gênero: o Projeto Promotoras Legais Populares e sua Orientação à Emancipação Feminina / Law and gender: the Promotoras Legais Populares Project and its orientation to female emancipation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Del Vieira Duque

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Resumo O presente texto busca apresentar o projeto Promotoras Legais Populares com ênfase em sua realização no Distrito Federal como projeto de extensão vinculado à Universidade de Brasília. Evidencia os aportes teóricos e conceituais que sustentam o projeto, explicando sua lógica fundamentada na visão ampliada do Direito, na educação jurídica popular, nas reivindicações feministas e na ação afirmativa em gênero como esforços de libertação e emancipação. Palavras-chave: Promotoras Legais Populares, Direito, feminismo.     Abstract This present text aims to introduce the Promotoras Legais Populares project, with emphasis on its performance in Distrito Federal as an extension project entailed to the University of Brasília. It highlights the theoretical and conceptual contributions underpinning the project, explaining its logic based on the enlarged view of the Law, the popular legal education, the feminist claims and the affirmative action on gender as liberation and emancipation efforts. Keywords: Promotoras Legais Populares, Law, feminism.

  17. Characteristics of the Process of Culture Development Project Activities (Culture of Social Engineering) at the Future Bachelors of Social Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikitina, Natalya I.; Romanova, Elena Yu.; Vasilyeva, Tatyana V.; Nikishina, Irina N.; Grebennikova, Veronica M.

    2017-01-01

    In modern Russia professional activity productivity of social work specialist depends largely on his abilities and skills in the field of social design. University graduate's (social work bachelor`s) high level of professional-project activity culture can be regarded as one of the necessary conditions of successful labour market adaptation of…

  18. Global drought in the 20th and 21st centuries : analysis of retrospective simulations and future projections of soil moisture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheffield, J.

    2008-01-01

    We describe the analysis of global and regional drought over the second half of the 20th century from a retrospective model simulation of the terrestrial water cycle, and projected 21st century changes using multi-scenario data from multiple climate models. A global meteorological forcing dataset is

  19. Global drought in the 20th and 21st centuries : analysis of retrospective simulations and future projections of soil moisture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheffield, J.

    2008-01-01

    We describe the analysis of global and regional drought over the second half of the 20th century from a retrospective model simulation of the terrestrial water cycle, and projected 21st century changes using multi-scenario data from multiple climate models. A global meteorological forcing dataset is

  20. Cultural Legacy and Shared Musical Heritage: Past, Present, and Future of a Musicological and Pedagogical Research Project for Teacher Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrios Manzano, Pilar

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a research project that began three decades ago in the Faculty of Teacher Training on the Cáceres Campus of the University of Extremadura (Spain) and that continues opening new prospects through new interconnected approaches. Many researchers from different universities throughout Spain and Latin America have joined this…