Potential future land use threats to California's protected areas

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Tamara Sue; Sleeter, Benjamin Michael; Davis, Adam Wilkinson

2015-01-01

Increasing pressures from land use coupled with future changes in climate will present unique challenges for California’s protected areas. We assessed the potential for future land use conversion on land surrounding existing protected areas in California’s twelve ecoregions, utilizing annual, spatially explicit (250 m) scenario projections of land use for 2006–2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios to examine future changes in development, agriculture, and logging. We calculated a conversion threat index (CTI) for each unprotected pixel, combining land use conversion potential with proximity to protected area boundaries, in order to identify ecoregions and protected areas at greatest potential risk of proximal land conversion. Our results indicate that California’s Coast Range ecoregion had the highest CTI with competition for extractive logging placing the greatest demand on land in close proximity to existing protected areas. For more permanent land use conversions into agriculture and developed uses, our CTI results indicate that protected areas in the Central California Valley and Oak Woodlands are most vulnerable. Overall, the Eastern Cascades, Central California Valley, and Oak Woodlands ecoregions had the lowest areal percent of protected lands and highest conversion threat values. With limited resources and time, rapid, landscape-level analysis of potential land use threats can help quickly identify areas with higher conversion probability of future land use and potential changes to both habitat and potential ecosystem reserves. Given the broad range of future uncertainties, LULC projections are a useful tool allowing land managers to visualize alternative landscape futures, improve planning, and optimize management practices.

PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE: A LAND-USE AND TRANSPORT INTERACTION MODEL FOR SWITZERLAND

OpenAIRE

Balz R. Bodenmann; Breogan Sanchez; Alexandra Zeiler; Milan Kuliowsky; Peter Furtak; Georgios Sarlas

2014-01-01

Spatial and transport planners, authorities, real estate developers, investors, re-locating residents and businesses have different questions related to space and transport. These questions may concern specific land parcels, or cover a much larger area such as a city, a region, or even a whole nation. Amongst others, these questions include: - How will our society respond to influences of global economy and political decisions (e.g. regarding demographics and firmographics)? - Which strategie...

A Land-use Approach for Capturing Future Trip Generating Poles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iraklis Stamos

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Changes in the usage of a particular urban or regional area have immediate effects on transportation, such as the development of a new multimodal terminal within a city, or the creation of a business park in its outskirts. Thus far, this correlation has been under-researched at a national level in Greece. As a result, its effects on trip generation and passenger flows has been underestimated at the planning level, leading to the implementation of projects that are neither viable nor sustainable. This paper proposes that land use changes ought to be considered in tandem with transport-related changes at the planning stage. To this effect, we present a three-step methodology for an integrated approach to capturing future trip generation: the identification of future trip-generating poles within the study area; the development of scenarios related to the probability of these changes occurring and their potential magnitude; an estimation of future trends in passenger flows. The methodology is applied to the Metropolitan area of Thessaloniki, Greece. Using data obtained from development plans, national statistical services and research projects’ and studies’ findings, we estimate future trip-generation subsequent to land use change. Data is processed and evaluated by a local experts’ group, representing various key-disciplines of the area’s planning stakeholders.

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

1995-12-31

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

1995-01-01

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

1995-01-01

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

2013-12-01

Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of the Built Environment on Transportation: Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; Dunphy, R. T.; Vimmerstedt, L.

2013-03-01

Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density, diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Effects of the Built Environment on Transportation. Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Porter, C. D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Brown, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Dunphy, R. T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States)

2013-03-15

Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density, diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Land Use and Land Cover - Volusia County Future Land Use (FLU) 2010

Data.gov (United States)

NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — Volusia County Future Land Use 2010. This is the original land use map for 2010. It was drafted for the comprehensive plan in 1990 and contains adopted amendments.

Forecasting transportation impacts upon land use

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wendt, P F [ed.

1976-01-01

Chapter titles include: introduction and overview; national and regional econometric models; growth and change in the Georgia regional economies; a Delphi approach to land use forecasting; land suitability and land use analysis; the interaction of transportation and land use; and, summary and conclusions. Lists of tables and figures are also included. (JGB)

The future of transportation in society: Forces of change

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Barbara C.

1996-01-01

The transportation system is a critical element of the social / political / economic system of the United States. Factors influencing the use of transportation technology include technology push, market pull, and external factors. In order for new transportation technology to be successful, it must meet the needs of the market. These needs are diverse and vary almost by individual. Historical trends show great changes in transportation use by mode and origins and destinations of trips. Other important changes in society affecting transportation use include changes in the composition of society by gender, age, national origin, family composition, land use, income, and residential distribution. Changes of these factors in the future and how technology is deployed to meet the changing needs of society will affect the success of transportation technology implementation over the next twenty years.

Transport Improvements and Impacts on Land Use Dynamics and Economic Development: Evidence for the Dublin-Belfast Corridor

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Williams, Brendan; Foley, Walter; Shahumyan, Harutyun

2016-01-01

Transport infrastructure improvements are frequently dealt without adequate consideration of land use management issues. Theoretically this would not appear to be consistent with urban economic theory which prioritises the critical role that transportation plays in all urban economic spatial land...... and planning systems need to be better aligned. In this paper we examine policy evolution and recent policy outcomes and trends in the Belfast-Dublin corridor in light of the major infrastructure investment which occurred based upon official data within the time period mid 1990s (when many investments...... commenced) to 2012 (completion and use of those investments). It will investigate recent trends in terms of emerging economic development patterns since the creation of the M1 motorway and improved rail links. The research will incorporate spatial analytic modelling of current and future development trends...

Global Land Transport Infrastructure Requirements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-06-01

Over the next four decades, global passenger and freight travel is expected to double over 2010 levels. In order to accommodate this growth, it is expected that the world will need to add nearly 25 million paved road lane-kilometres and 335 000 rail track kilometres. In addition, it is expected that between 45 000 square kilometres and 77 000 square kilometres of new parking spaces will be added to accommodate vehicle stock growth. These land transport infrastructure additions, when combined with operations, maintenance and repairs, are expected to cost as much as USD 45 trillion by 2050. This publication reports on the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) analysis of infrastructure requirements to support projected road and rail travel through 2050, using the IEA Mobility Model. It considers land transport infrastructure additions to support travel growth to 2050. It also considers potential savings if countries pursue “avoid and shift” policies: in this scenario, cumulative global land transport infrastructure spending could decrease as much as USD 20 trillion by 2050 over baseline projections.

Doppler Effect-Based Automatic Landing Procedure for UAV in Difficult Access Environments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan M. Kelner

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Currently, almost unrestricted access to low-lying areas of airspace creates an opportunity to use unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, especially those capable of vertical take-off and landing (VTOL, in transport services. UAVs become increasingly popular for transporting postal items over small, medium, and large distances. It is forecasted that, in the near future, VTOL UAVs with a high take-off weight will also deliver goods to very distant and hard-to-reach locations. Therefore, UAV navigation plays a very important role in the process of carrying out transport services. At present, during the flight phase, drones make use of the integrated global navigation satellite system (GNSS and the inertial navigation system (INS. However, the inaccuracy of GNSS + INS makes it unsuitable for landing and take-off, necessitating the guidance of a human UAV operator during those phases. Available navigation systems do not provide sufficiently high positioning accuracy for an UAV. For this reason, full automation of the landing approach is not possible. This paper puts forward a proposal to solve this problem. The authors show the structure of an autonomous system and a Doppler-based navigation procedure that allows for automatic landing approaches. An accuracy evaluation of the developed solution for VTOL is made on the basis of simulation studies.

Co-evolution of transportation and land use : modeling historical dependencies in land use and transportation decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

2009-11-01

The interaction between land use and transportation has long been the central issue in urban and regional planning. Models of such : interactions provide vital information to support many public policy decisions, such as land supply, infrastructure p...

The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol in 2030 – Part 1: Land transport and shipping

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Righi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Using the EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry global climate-chemistry model coupled to the aerosol module MADE (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications, we simulate the impact of land transport and shipping emissions on global atmospheric aerosol and climate in 2030. Future emissions of short-lived gas and aerosol species follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs designed in support of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compare the resulting 2030 land-transport- and shipping-induced aerosol concentrations to the ones obtained for the year 2000 in a previous study with the same model configuration. The simulations suggest that black carbon and aerosol nitrate are the most relevant pollutants from land transport in 2000 and 2030 and their impacts are characterized by very strong regional variations during this time period. Europe and North America experience a decrease in the land-transport-induced particle pollution, although in these regions this sector remains a major source of surface-level pollution in 2030 under all RCPs. In Southeast Asia, however, a significant increase is simulated, but in this region the surface-level pollution is still controlled by other sources than land transport. Shipping-induced air pollution is mostly due to aerosol sulfate and nitrate, which show opposite trends towards 2030. Sulfate is strongly reduced as a consequence of sulfur reduction policies in ship fuels in force since 2010, while nitrate tends to increase due to the excess of ammonia following the reduction in ammonium sulfate. The aerosol-induced climate impact of both sectors is dominated by aerosol-cloud effects and is projected to decrease between 2000 and 2030, nevertheless still contributing a significant radiative forcing to Earth's radiation budget.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brogan, J. J.; Aeppli, A. E.; Beagan, D. F.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Grenzeback, L. R.; McKenzie, E.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Witzke, E.

2013-03-01

Truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline modes each serve a distinct share of the freight transportation market. The current allocation of freight by mode is the product of technologic, economic, and regulatory frameworks, and a variety of factors -- price, speed, reliability, accessibility, visibility, security, and safety -- influence mode. Based on a comprehensive literature review, this report considers how analytical methods can be used to project future modal shares and offers insights on federal policy decisions with the potential to prompt shifts to energy-efficient, low-emission modes. There are substantial opportunities to reduce the energy used for freight transportation, but it will be difficult to shift large volumes from one mode to another without imposing considerable additional costs on businesses and consumers. This report explores federal government actions that could help trigger the shifts in modal shares needed to reduce energy consumption and emissions. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. D'Andrea

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

Land use impacts on transport : how land use factors affect travel behavior

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Litman, T.

2005-11-16

The relationship between land use patterns and travel behaviour was examined with reference to the ability of land use management strategies to achieve transportation planning objectives. The study examined how land use factors such as density, regional accessibility, roadway connectivity affect per capita motor vehicle ownership and use; mode split; non-motorized travel; and accessibility by people who are physically or economically disadvantaged. The social, economic and environmental impacts that result from higher travel were discussed with reference to the degree to which conventional planning accounts for this increased travel. Alternatives for improving mobility in urban and suburban areas were presented. It was concluded that travel behaviour can change by promoting more efficient use of existing roadway capacity, by improving travel options and providing incentives to use alternative transport modes. It was suggested that strategies such as Smart Growth and New Urbanism can be applied in a variety of land use scenarios, including urban, suburban and rural areas to help achieve transportation planning objectives. 122 refs., 16 tabs., 12 figs.

Magnetic levitation -The future transport system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rairan, Danilo

2000-01-01

The paper made a recount of the main advantages and disadvantages of the traditional systems of transport with base in electric power and it shows as the systems that use the magnetic levitation they are the future of the transport. Additionally it presents the physical principle of operation of the two main systems developed at the present time

A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Reginster, I.; Araújo, Miguel B.

2006-01-01

This paper presents a range of future, spatially explicit, land use change scenarios for the EU15, Norway and Switzerland based on an interpretation of the global storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that are presented in the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES......). The methodology is based on a qualitative interpretation of the SRES storylines for the European region, an estimation of the aggregate totals of land use change using various land use change models and the allocation of these aggregate quantities in space using spatially explicit rules. The spatial patterns...... are further downscaled from a resolution of 10 min to 250 m using statistical downscaling procedures. The scenarios include the major land use/land cover classes urban, cropland, grassland and forest land as well as introducing new land use classes such as bioenergy crops. The scenario changes are most...

Modelling animal waste pathogen transport from agricultural land to streams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pandey, Pramod K; Soupir, Michelle L; Ikenberry, Charles

2014-01-01

The transport of animal waste pathogens from crop land to streams can potentially elevate pathogen levels in stream water. Applying animal manure into crop land as fertilizers is a common practice in developing as well as in developed countries. Manure application into the crop land, however, can cause potential human health. To control pathogen levels in ambient water bodies such as streams, improving our understanding of pathogen transport at farm scale as well as at watershed scale is required. To understand the impacts of crop land receiving animal waste as fertilizers on stream's pathogen levels, here we investigate pathogen indicator transport at watershed scale. We exploited watershed scale hydrological model to estimate the transport of pathogens from the crop land to streams. Pathogen indicator levels (i.e., E. coli levels) in the stream water were predicted. With certain assumptions, model results are reasonable. This study can be used as guidelines for developing the models for calculating the impacts of crop land's animal manure on stream water

Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

Science.gov (United States)

Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

2014-08-01

Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined

Predicting future land cover change and its impact on streamflow and sediment load in a trans-boundary river basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Wang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Sediment load can provide very important perspective on erosion of river basin. The changes of human-induced vegetation cover, such as deforestation or afforestation, affect sediment yield process of a catchment. We have already evaluated that climate change and land cover change changed the historical streamflow and sediment yield, and land cover change is the main factor in Red river basin. But future streamflow and sediment yield changes under potential future land cover change scenario still have not been evaluated. For this purpose, future scenario of land cover change is developed based on historical land cover changes and land change model (LCM. In addition, future leaf area index (LAI is simulated by ecological model (Biome-BGC based on future land cover scenario. Then future scenarios of land cover change and LAI are used to drive hydrological model and new sediment rating curve. The results of this research provide information that decision-makers need in order to promote water resources planning efforts. Besides that, this study also contributes a basic framework for assessing climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment yield that can be applied in the other basins around the world.

The impact of Future Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Atmospheric Chemistry-Climate Interactions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ganzeveld, L.N.; Bouwman, L.

2010-01-01

To demonstrate potential future consequences of land cover and land use changes beyond those for physical climate and the carbon cycle, we present an analysis of large-scale impacts of land cover and land use changes on atmospheric chemistry using the chemistry-climate model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy

Land Surface Phenologies of the Northern Great Plains: Possible Futures Arising From Land and Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Henebry, G. M.; Wimberly, M. C.; Senay, G.; Wang, A.; Chang, J.; Wright, C. R.; Hansen, M. C.

2008-12-01

Land cover change across the Northern Great Plains of North America over the past three decades has been driven by changes in agricultural management (conservation tillage; irrigation), government incentives (Conservation Reserve Program; subsidies to grain-based ethanol), crop varieties (cold-hardy soybean), and market dynamics (increasing world demand). Climate change across the Northern Great Plains over the past three decades has been evident in trends toward earlier warmth in the spring and a longer frost-free season. Together these land and climate changes induce shifts in local and regional land surface phenologies (LSPs). Any significant shift in LSP may correspond to a significant shift in evapotranspiration, with consequences for regional hydrometeorology. We explored possible future scenarios involving land use and climate change in six steps. First, we defined the nominal draw areas of current and future biorefineries in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa and masked those land cover types within the draw areas that were unlikely to change to agricultural use (open water, settlements, forests, etc.). Second, we estimated the proportion of corn and soybean remaining within the masked draw areas using MODIS-derived crop maps. Third, in each draw area, we modified LSPs to simulate crop changes for a control and two treatment scenarios. In the control, we used LSP profiles identified from MODIS Collection 5 NBAR data. In one treatment, we increased the proportion of tallgrass LSPs in the draw areas to represent widespread cultivation of a perennial cellulosic crop, like switchgrass. In a second treatment, we increased the proportion of corn LSPs in the draw areas to represent increased corn cultivation. Fourth, we characterized the seasonal progression of the thermal regime associated with the LSP profiles using MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) products. Fifth, we modeled the LSP profile as a quadratic function of accumulated

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Hutson, N.; Lamm, C. R.; Pei, Y. L.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Winebrake, J. J.

2013-03-01

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analytical models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Long-term energy consumptions of urban transportation: A prospective simulation of 'transport-land uses' policies in Bangalore

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lefevre, Benoit

2009-01-01

The current trends of urban dynamics in the Third World are alarming with regard to climate change, because they are giving an increasingly important role to cars-to the detriment of public and non-motorized transportation. Yet this is the type of energy consumption that is expected to grow the fastest, in business-as-usual scenarios. How can these market-based urban trends be influenced? What level of emissions reduction can be achieved? This article shows that first, there is a relevant and urgent need to tackle the urban dynamics of cities in developing countries focusing on the 'transport-land uses' couple, and second, that existing transport technologies and decision-helping tools are already available to take up the climate change challenge. Through the application of an integrated 'transport-land uses' model, TRANUS, this study demonstrates that transit technologies affordable to an emerging city like Bangalore can significantly curb the trajectories of energy consumption and the ensuing carbon dioxide emissions, if and only if they are implemented in the framework of appropriate urban planning. Furthermore, this study establishes that there are tools which are available to facilitate the necessary policy-making processes. These tools allow stakeholders to discuss different political alternatives integrating energy issues, based on quantitative assessments

Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

2015-12-01

Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is

Future land-use related water demand in California

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2016-01-01

Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed (municipal and industrial) and agricultural land use to estimate associated water use demand from 2012 to 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total water use was projected to increase 1.8 billion cubic meters(+4.1%) driven primarily by urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Only if currently mandated 25% reductions in municipal water use are continuously implemented would water demand in 2062 balance to water use levels in 2012. This is the first modeling effort of its kind to examine regional land-use related water demand incorporating historical trends of both developed and agricultural land uses.

Prediction of Land Use Change Based on Markov and GM(1,1 Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SUN Yi-yang

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In order to explore the law of land use change in Laiwu City, Markov and GM(1,1 were respectively employed in the prediction of land use change in Laiwu from 2015 to 2050, after which the results were analyzed and discussed. The results showed that:(1The variational trends of all kinds of land use change predicted by the two models were consistent and the goodness of fit of the predictive value in corresponding years in the near future was high, illustrating that the predicted results in the near future were credible and the trend predicted in mid long term could be used as reference. (2The cultivated land would remanin almost no change from 2015 to 2020, and then gradually decreaseed in a small range from 2020 to 2050. The garden, the woodland, the grassland always reducing and the decreare range of the grassland was the largest. The urban village and industrial and mining land, the transportation land would be continuously increased and the range of urban village and industrial and mining land was the largest. The water and water conservancy facilities land and the other land would be always reduced in a very small range. It could be concluded that the results predicted by the two models in the near future were credible and could provide scientific basis for land use planning of Laiwu, while the method could provide reference for the prediction of land use change.

Analysis of forecasting methods of cargo flows in International transportation by land transport

OpenAIRE

Ponomareva, N.

2005-01-01

Advantages and disadvantages of the existing forecasting methods of cargo flows are presented. The improvement of cargo flows forecasting method in international transportation by land transport is considered on the basis of a interregional balance model to get more correct and fuller forecast.

Transportation Energy Futures: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brogan, J. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Aeppli, A. E. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Brown, D. F. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Fischer, M. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Grenzeback, L. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); McKenzie, E. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vyas, A. D. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Witzke, E. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)

2013-03-01

Freight transportation modes—truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline—each serve a distinct share of the freight transportation market. A variety of factors influence the modes chosen by shippers, carriers, and others involved in freight supply chains. Analytical methods can be used to project future modal shares, and federal policy actions could influence future freight mode choices. This report considers how these topics have been addressed in existing literature and offers insights on federal policy decisions with the potential to prompt mode choices that reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Developing land market data for use in a state wide land use and transportation model

Science.gov (United States)

1997-10-01

This working paper describes the process used to develop land market variables : for use by TRANUS in the Transportation and Land Use Model Integration : Program (TLUMIP). One of the key variables developed during this phase of the : project is the m...

Automobile dependence in cities: An international comparison of urban transport and land use patterns with implications for sustainability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kenworthy, J.R.; Laube, F.B.

1996-01-01

Cities around the world are subject to increasing levels of environmental impact from dependence on the automobile. In the highly auto-dependent cities of the US and Australia, this is manifested in problems such as urban sprawl and its destruction of prime farming land and natural landscapes, photochemical smog that can be primarily attributed to auto emissions. On top of the more local impacts of the automobile, the global dimension should not be forgotten. Perhaps the two most pressing issues in this regard are the oil problem and the greenhouse problem. A comparison of global cities over the period 1980 to 1990 reveals large differences in automobile dependence with implications for the future sustainability of cities in different countries. This study explores some of the underlying land use, transport, and economic reasons for these different transport patterns. It briefly reviews what the sustainability agenda means for transport and land use patterns in cities and suggests a suite of targets or goals for sustainability by which cities might measure their current directions and plans

Land use and transport relationships: A perspective from the United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seskin, S.N.

1995-12-31

As transportation and land use planners and policy makers world wide grapple with the increasingly challenging consequences of automobile use, there is a growing need to communicate globally about both the knowledge of interactions between transport and land use and the ability to analyze these relationships in a systematic manner. As the world`s largest consumer of energy in general and petroleum in particular, the United States continues to conduct research and innovate in integrated transportation and land use policy issues. The need for improving the state of knowledge and practice, however, is more compelling in developing nations, such as Chile and Thailand, from which, despite their transportation and environmental problems, the United States in fact has much to learn. Nevertheless it is instructive to take a long and broad look at the way the United States is planning and building urban environments. This paper focuses on four aspects of that effort. The first is the state of knowledge on the relationships between land use and travel demand. The second is the analytic tools used to evaluate these relationships. Third is the array of approaches used by government to integrate transport and land use. The last is the ways in which individuals and organizations outside of the formal structure of government participate in metropolitan planning and development.

Simulating the dynamic effect of land use and transport policies on the health of populations.

Science.gov (United States)

McClure, Roderick J; Adriazola-Steil, Claudia; Mulvihill, Christine; Fitzharris, Michael; Salmon, Paul; Bonnington, C Paul; Stevenson, Mark

2015-04-01

We identified the features of a land use-transportation system that optimizes the health and well-being of the population. We developed a quantitative system dynamics model to represent relationships among land use, transport, economic development, and population health. Simulation experiments were conducted over a 10-year simulation period to compare the effect of different baseline conditions and land use-transport policies on the number of motor vehicle crash deaths and disability-adjusted life years lost. Optimal reduction in the public health burden attributable to land transport was demonstrated when transport safety risk reduction policies were combined with land use and transport polices that minimized reliance on individual motorized transport and maximized use of active transport modes. The model's results were particularly sensitive to the level of development that characterized each city at the start of the simulation period. Local, national, and international decision-makers are encouraged to address transport, land use, and health as an integrated whole to achieve the desired societal benefits of traffic safety, population health, and social equity.

Land use transport interaction models: Application perspectives for the city of Thessaloniki

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pozoukidou Georgia

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Land use patterns and transport system are considered to be the two basic components of the urban development process, and as such they have been in the core of spatial planning policies for the last 4 decades. Land use transport interaction models are computer tools that could help us understand land use changes and organization of human activities in relation to existing or planned transport infrastructure. In this context this paper examines the perspectives of applying a land use transport interaction model for the city of Thessaloniki. Obtaining, preparing and validating socioeconomic data is a crucial part of the modeling process, therefore an extensive search of the required data was performed. The quest for appropriate and suitable data concluded with a detailed recording of emerged problems. In response to the inability of finding suitable data to perform the first step of the modeling process i.e. calibration, the paper concludes with some thoughts related to data availability, organization and standardization issues. Last but not least, the paper stresses out the significance of data availability for utilization of land use transport models, so as not to remain purely academic products but tools with practical value in planning.

Assessing the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Global Water Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Batra, N.; Yang, Y. E.; Choi, H. I.; Islam, A.; Charlotte, D. F.; Cai, X.; Kumar, P.

2007-12-01

Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) significantly modify the hydrological regime of the watersheds, affecting water resources and environment from regional to global scale. This study seeks to advance and integrate water and energy cycle observation, scientific understanding, and human impacts to assess future water availability. To achieve the research objective, we integrate and interpret past and current space based and in situ observations into a global hydrologic model (GHM). GHM is developed with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution, physical complexity, hydrologic theory and processes to quantify the impact of LULCC on physical variables: surface runoff, subsurface flow, groundwater, infiltration, ET, soil moisture, etc. Coupled with the common land model (CLM), a 3-dimensional volume averaged soil-moisture transport (VAST) model is expanded to incorporate the lateral flow and subgrid heterogeneity. The model consists of 11 soil-hydrology layers to predict lateral as well as vertical moisture flux transport based on Richard's equations. The primary surface boundary conditions (SBCs) include surface elevation and its derivatives, land cover category, sand and clay fraction profiles, bedrock depth and fractional vegetation cover. A consistent global GIS-based dataset is constructed for the SBCs of the model from existing observational datasets comprising of various resolutions, map projections and data formats. Global ECMWF data at 6-hour time steps for the period 1971 through 2000 is processed to get the forcing data which includes incoming longwave and shortwave radiation, precipitation, air temperature, pressure, wind components, boundary layer height and specific humidity. Land use land cover data, generated using IPCC scenarios for every 10 years from 2000 to 2100 is used for future assessment on water resources. Alterations due to LULCC on surface water balance components: ET, groundwater recharge and runoff are then addressed in the study. Land

Land-use regime shifts: an analytical framework and agenda for future land-use research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Navin Ramankutty

2016-06-01

Full Text Available A key research frontier in global change research lies in understanding processes of land change to inform predictive models of future land states. We believe that significant advances in the field are hampered by limited attention being paid to critical points of change termed land-use regime shifts. We present an analytical framework for understanding land-use regime shifts. We survey historical events of land change and perform in-depth case studies of soy and shrimp development in Latin America to demonstrate the role of preconditions, triggers, and self-reinforcing processes in driving land-use regime shifts. Whereas the land-use literature demonstrates a good understanding of within-regime dynamics, our understanding of the drivers of land-use regime shifts is limited to ex post facto explications. Theoretical and empirical advances are needed to better understand the dynamics and implications of land-use regime shifts. We draw insights from the regime-shifts literature to propose a research agenda for studying land change.

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2017-01-01

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories.

An Approach to Evaluate Comprehensive Plan and Identify Priority Lands for Future Land Use Development to Conserve More Ecological Values

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Long Zhou

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Urbanization has significant impacts on the regional environmental quality through altering natural lands, converting them to urban built-up areas. One common strategy applied by urban planners to manage urbanization and preserve natural resources is to make a comprehensive plan and concentrate future land use in certain areas. However, in practice, planners used to make future land use planning mainly based on their subjective interpretations with limited ecological supporting evidence and analysis. Here, we propose a new approach composed of ecological modelling and land use zoning in the spatial matrix to evaluate the comprehensive plan and identify priority lands for sustainable land use planning. We use the city of Corvallis, OR, as the test bed to demonstrate this new approach. The results indicate that the Corvallis Comprehensive Plan 1998–2020 featured with compact development is not performing efficiently in conserving ecological values, and the land use plan featured with mixed-use spreading development generated by the proposed approach meets the city’s land demands for urban growth, and conserves 103% more ecological value of retaining storm water nitrogen, 270% more ecological value of retaining storm water phosphorus and 19% more ecological value in storing carbon in the whole watershed. This study indicates that if planned with scientific analysis and evidence, spreading urban development does not necessarily result in less sustainable urban environment than the compact development recommended in smart growth.

Modeling nitrate from land surface to wells' perforations under agricultural land: success, failure, and future scenarios in a Mediterranean case study

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Yehuda; Shapira, Roi H.; Chefetz, Benny; Kurtzman, Daniel

2017-07-01

Contamination of groundwater resources by nitrate leaching under agricultural land is probably the most troublesome agriculture-related water contamination worldwide. Contaminated areas often show large spatial variability of nitrate concentration in wells. In this study, we tried to assess whether this spatial variability can be characterized on the basis of land use and standard agricultural practices. Deep soil sampling (10 m) was used to calibrate vertical flow and nitrogen-transport numerical models of the unsaturated zone under different agricultural land uses. Vegetable fields (potato and strawberry) and deciduous orchards (persimmon) in the Sharon area overlying the coastal aquifer of Israel were examined. Average nitrate-nitrogen fluxes below vegetable fields were 210-290 kg ha-1 yr-1 and under deciduous orchards were 110-140 kg ha-1 yr-1. The output water and nitrate-nitrogen fluxes of the unsaturated-zone models were used as input data for a three-dimensional flow and nitrate-transport model in the aquifer under an area of 13.3 km2 of agricultural land. The area was subdivided into four agricultural land uses: vegetables, deciduous orchards, citrus orchards, and non-cultivated. Fluxes of water and nitrate-nitrogen below citrus orchards were taken from a previous study in the area. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to well heads by changing the hydraulic conductivity. The nitrate-transport model, which was fed by the above-mentioned models of the unsaturated zone, succeeded in reconstructing the average nitrate concentration in the wells. However, this transport model failed in calculating the high concentrations in the most contaminated wells and the large spatial variability of nitrate concentrations in the aquifer. To reconstruct the spatial variability and enable predictions, nitrate fluxes from the unsaturated zone were multiplied by local multipliers. This action was rationalized by the fact that the high concentrations in some wells cannot

Research on Land Surface Thermal-Hydrologic Exchange in Southern China under Future Climate and Land Cover Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianwu Yan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change inevitably leads to changes in hydrothermal circulation. However, thermal-hydrologic exchanging caused by land cover change has also undergone ineligible changes. Therefore, studying the comprehensive effects of climate and land cover changes on land surface water and heat exchanges enables us to well understand the formation mechanism of regional climate and predict climate change with fewer uncertainties. This study investigated the land surface thermal-hydrologic exchange across southern China for the next 40 years using a land surface model (ecosystem-atmosphere simulation scheme (EASS. Our findings are summarized as follows. (i Spatiotemporal variation patterns of sensible heat flux (H and evapotranspiration (ET under the land cover scenarios (A2a or B2a and climate change scenario (A1B are unanimous. (ii Both H and ET take on a single peak pattern, and the peak occurs in June or July. (iii Based on the regional interannual variability analysis, H displays a downward trend (10% and ET presents an increasing trend (15%. (iv The annual average H and ET would, respectively, increase and decrease by about 10% when woodland converts to the cultivated land. Through this study, we recognize that land surface water and heat exchanges are affected greatly by the future climate change as well as land cover change.

Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Quilbé

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Watershed runoff is closely related to land use but this influence is difficult to quantify. This study focused on the Chaudière River watershed (Québec, Canada and had two objectives: (i to quantify the influence of historical agricultural land use evolution on watershed runoff; and (ii to assess the effect of future land use evolution scenarios under climate change conditions (CC. To achieve this, we used the integrated modeling system GIBSI. Past land use evolution was constructed using satellite images that were integrated into GIBSI. The general trend was an increase of agricultural land in the 80's, a slight decrease in the beginning of the 90's and a steady state over the last ten years. Simulations showed strong correlations between land use evolution and water discharge at the watershed outlet. For the prospective approach, we first assessed the effect of CC and then defined two opposite land use evolution scenarios for the horizon 2025 based on two different trends: agriculture intensification and sustainable development. Simulations led to a wide range of results depending on the climatologic models and gas emission scenarios considered, varying from a decrease to an increase of annual and monthly water discharge. In this context, the two land use scenarios induced opposite effects on water discharge and low flow sequences, especially during the growing season. However, due to the large uncertainty linked to CC simulations, it is difficult to conclude that one land use scenario provides a better adaptation to CC than another. Nevertheless, this study shows that land use is a key factor that has to be taken into account when predicting potential future hydrological responses of a watershed.

The Environmental Impact of Flooding on Transportation Land Use ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Environmental problems of flooding on transportation land use manifest as a result of different land use activities of man to earn his living and his livelihood. Natural surfaces were replaced by more impermeable roads and concrete which have very low infiltration capacity, which have hydrological consequences of resulting ...

Alternative Transportation System Demand Estimation for Federal Land Management Agencies.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-30

Estimating travel demand for alternative transportation systems (ATS) is challenging in any context, but is even more daunting for Federal Land Management Agencies (FLMAs). Federal public land sites vary widely in their characteristics. Moreover, tra...

Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

2016-07-01

Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulating Land-Use Change using an Agent-Based Land Transaction Model

Science.gov (United States)

Bakker, M. M.; van Dijk, J.; Alam, S. J.

2013-12-01

In the densely populated cultural landscapes of Europe, the vast majority of all land is owned by private parties, be it farmers (the majority), nature organizations, property developers, or citizens. Therewith, the vast majority of all land-use change arises from land transactions between different owner types: successful farms expand at the expense of less successful farms, and meanwhile property developers, individual citizens, and nature organizations also actively purchase land. These land transactions are driven by specific properties of the land, by governmental policies, and by the (economic) motives of both buyers and sellers. Climate/global change can affect these drivers at various scales: at the local scale changes in hydrology can make certain land less or more desirable; at the global scale the agricultural markets will affect motives of farmers to buy or sell land; while at intermediate (e.g. provincial) scales property developers and nature conservationists may be encouraged or discouraged to purchase land. The cumulative result of all these transactions becomes manifest in changing land-use patterns, and consequent environmental responses. Within the project Climate Adaptation for Rural Areas an agent-based land-use model was developed that explores the future response of individual land users to climate change, within the context of wider global change (i.e. policy and market change). It simulates the exchange of land among farmers and between farmers and nature organizations and property developers, for a specific case study area in the east of the Netherlands. Results show that local impacts of climate change can result in a relative stagnation in the land market in waterlogged areas. Furthermore, the increase in dairying at the expense of arable cultivation - as has been observed in the area in the past - is slowing down as arable produce shows a favourable trend in the agricultural world market. Furthermore, budgets for nature managers are

Managing the environmental impacts of land transport: integrating environmental analysis with urban planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Irving, Paul; Moncrieff, Ian

2004-01-01

Ecological systems have limits or thresholds that vary by pollutant type, emissions sources and the sensitivity of a given location. Human health can also indicate sensitivity. Good environmental management requires any problem to be defined to obtain efficient and effective solutions. Cities are where transport activities, effects and resource management decisions are often most focussed. The New Zealand Ministry of Transport has developed two environmental management tools. The Vehicle Fleet Model (VFM) is a predictive database of the environmental performance of the New Zealand traffic fleet (and rail fleet). It calculates indices of local air quality, stormwater, and greenhouse gases emissions. The second is an analytical process based on Environmental Capacity Analysis (ECA). Information on local traffic is combined with environmental performance data from the Vehicle Fleet Model. This can be integrated within a live, geo-spatially defined analysis of the overall environmental effects within a defined local area. Variations in urban form and activity (traffic and other) that contribute to environmental effects can be tracked. This enables analysis of a range of mitigation strategies that may contribute, now or in the future, to maintaining environmental thresholds or meeting targets. A case study of the application of this approach was conducted within Waitakere City. The focus was on improving the understanding of the relative significance of stormwater contaminants derived from land transport

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grenzeback, L. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Brown, A. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Fischer, M. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Hutson, N. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Lamm, C. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Pei, Y. L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vyas, A. D. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Winebrake, J. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)

2013-03-01

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and by extrapolation, to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050, requiring ever-greater amounts of energy. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand; the possible trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand and related energy use. After describing federal policy actions that could influence freight demand, the report then summarizes the available analytical models for forecasting freight demand, and identifies possible areas for future action.

Corporate strategy and viable future land use: Planning for closure from the outset of mining

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Warhurst, A.

2000-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the environmental impact of mining on viable future land use and underlines the imperative of improved environmental management and closure planning. It argues that pollution prevention, through planning for closure, can lead to cost-effective strategies for sustainable minerals development and viable future land use. This seems to be most true for greenfield sites since, generally, the earlier closure planning and pollution prevention is built into a project, the more cost-effective and environmentally benign closure will be. Further, for greenfield sites, pollution prevention techniques can be employed from the outset, at the stages of exploration and mine development, and then monitored and improved through the operation stage to closure, and can be kept in place to manage future land use. The paper discusses how global changes in the industry, following the liberalisation of investment regimes, and mergers and strategic alliances between key firms, has, by virtue of the diffusion of new technology, led to further opportunities to prevent pollution and optimise future land use through planning for closure from the outset. The objectives and components of closure plans are also reviewed as the paper draws on case studies to highlight some of the possible constraints and challenges to pollution prevention that may be faced at the level of both public policy and corporate strategy. The article concludes by suggesting a forward-looking approach to integrated environmental management and viable future land-use planning based on a dynamic model for environmental management. (author)

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

Science.gov (United States)

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for

Modeling nitrate from land surface to wells' perforations under agricultural land: success, failure, and future scenarios in a Mediterranean case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Levy

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Contamination of groundwater resources by nitrate leaching under agricultural land is probably the most troublesome agriculture-related water contamination worldwide. Contaminated areas often show large spatial variability of nitrate concentration in wells. In this study, we tried to assess whether this spatial variability can be characterized on the basis of land use and standard agricultural practices. Deep soil sampling (10 m was used to calibrate vertical flow and nitrogen-transport numerical models of the unsaturated zone under different agricultural land uses. Vegetable fields (potato and strawberry and deciduous orchards (persimmon in the Sharon area overlying the coastal aquifer of Israel were examined. Average nitrate–nitrogen fluxes below vegetable fields were 210–290 kg ha−1 yr−1 and under deciduous orchards were 110–140 kg ha−1 yr−1. The output water and nitrate–nitrogen fluxes of the unsaturated-zone models were used as input data for a three-dimensional flow and nitrate-transport model in the aquifer under an area of 13.3 km2 of agricultural land. The area was subdivided into four agricultural land uses: vegetables, deciduous orchards, citrus orchards, and non-cultivated. Fluxes of water and nitrate–nitrogen below citrus orchards were taken from a previous study in the area. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to well heads by changing the hydraulic conductivity. The nitrate-transport model, which was fed by the above-mentioned models of the unsaturated zone, succeeded in reconstructing the average nitrate concentration in the wells. However, this transport model failed in calculating the high concentrations in the most contaminated wells and the large spatial variability of nitrate concentrations in the aquifer. To reconstruct the spatial variability and enable predictions, nitrate fluxes from the unsaturated zone were multiplied by local multipliers. This action was rationalized by the fact

Economic crisis and its influences on the interaction between land use and transport in Madrid Region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Y.

2016-07-01

The road transport system is closely linked to the land-use system. The road system connects territories at all spatial scale, on the other hand, passengers and freight travel behavior are strongly influenced both by land-use and the road transport system. Hence, research in the field of the interactions between land-use and the road transport system is still less, particular the influence of the economic crisis. This paper aims to find out if the statistical analysis of land use and mobility can help to answer the question of what happens during economic crisis on both land use and transport system, and unveiling key spatial relationships between them. The methodology for the analysis was developed accordingly with the data and resources available. First, an exploratory data analysis (EDA) is performed in order to identify the land use and mobility pattern during the last decade. This analysis focuses on six aspects, which are distribution of population and dwellings, employment and jobs, GDP, motorization and modal split. The second aspect consists on crossing the spatial patterns of the different aspects in order to find some explanatory relationships that indicate the presence of the key characteristics. The analysis is based on the case of Madrid Region. The land-use and transport data presented in this analysis are from 2004 to 2014, which are collected from the national statistical institute, the regional government database and two urban mobility surveys of Madrid. Through the exploration analysis, we find that there is close relationship between the land-use system and travel behavior in Madrid Region. With an increasing of new dwellings constructed in the outer periphery of Madrid Region, it leads longer trips distance and more travel cost particularly by car mode. Moreover, during the economic crisis, we also find the motorization level of Madrid keeps the same, as a result of the decreasing GDP and relatively decreasing. (Author)

Stormwater quality management in rail transportation--past, present and future.

Science.gov (United States)

Vo, Phuong Tram; Ngo, Huu Hao; Guo, Wenshan; Zhou, John L; Listowski, Andrzej; Du, Bin; Wei, Qin; Bui, Xuan Thanh

2015-04-15

Railways currently play an important role in sustainable transportation systems, owing to their substantial carrying capacity, environmental friendliness and land-saving advantages. Although total pollutant emissions from railway systems are far less than that of automobile vehicles, the pollution from railway operations should not be underestimated. To date, both scientific and practical papers dealing with stormwater management for rail tracks have solely focused on its drainage function. Unlike roadway transport, the potential of stormwater pollution from railway operations is currently mishandled. There have been very few studies into the impact of its operations on water quality. Hence, upon the realisation on the significance of nonpoint source pollution, stormwater management priorities should have been re-evaluated. This paper provides an examination of past and current practices of stormwater management in the railway industry, potential sources of stormwater pollution, obstacles faced in stormwater management and concludes with strategies for future management directions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

2018-05-01

The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country), plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30-100 m) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as an empirical database for

HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

Science.gov (United States)

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Quesada, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Robertson, Eddy; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie

2018-06-01

Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by ~49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust +4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African rainforests. Finally, in most carbon cycle responses, direct removal of C dominates over the indirect CO2 fertilization due to LULCC. In consequence, projections of land C sequestration potential and Earth’s greening could be substantially overestimated just because of not fully accounting for LULCC.

Transport and land-use policies in Delhi.

Science.gov (United States)

Tiwari, Geetam

2003-01-01

Current transportation policies in mega-cities worldwide lead to major threats to health through traffic injuries, air pollution, noise, reduction in physical activities, and adverse impact on urban quality of life. In addition, a large section of the population in cities in low-income countries has to live in informal-sector, substandard housing. Many transportation policies fail to take enough account of their impacts on poverty and social exclusion, and they neglect the access and transportation demands of the more economically disadvantaged groups of society, who rely mostly on public transportation, walking, and cycling. Delhi, the capital city of India, is an interesting case because failure to consider the broad spectrum of health effects that may result from transport and land-use policies and investments has resulted in decisions that penalize the least affluent groups of the population and make it more difficult for them to get to jobs, education, health care, amenities, and services.

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Stocker, Benjamin D.; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri; Prentice, Iain Colin

2013-07-01

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4-0.5°C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8-1.0°C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22-27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

2015-08-01

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by

Comparison of flying qualities derived from in-flight and ground-based simulators for a jet-transport airplane for the approach and landing pilot tasks

Science.gov (United States)

Grantham, William D.

1989-01-01

The primary objective was to provide information to the flight controls/flying qualities engineer that will assist him in determining the incremental flying qualities and/or pilot-performance differences that may be expected between results obtained via ground-based simulation (and, in particular, the six-degree-of-freedom Langley Visual/Motion Simulator (VMS)) and flight tests. Pilot opinion and performance parameters derived from a ground-based simulator and an in-flight simulator are compared for a jet-transport airplane having 32 different longitudinal dynamic response characteristics. The primary pilot tasks were the approach and landing tasks with emphasis on the landing-flare task. The results indicate that, in general, flying qualities results obtained from the ground-based simulator may be considered conservative-especially when the pilot task requires tight pilot control as during the landing flare. The one exception to this, according to the present study, was that the pilots were more tolerant of large time delays in the airplane response on the ground-based simulator. The results also indicated that the ground-based simulator (particularly the Langley VMS) is not adequate for assessing pilot/vehicle performance capabilities (i.e., the sink rate performance for the landing-flare task when the pilot has little depth/height perception from the outside scene presentation).

Recreational rates and future land-use preferences for four Department of Energy sites: consistency despite demographic and geographical differences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burger, Joanna

2004-01-01

The management of ecosystems has been improved by both a public understanding of ecosystem structure and function and by managers' understanding of public perceptions and attitudes. This is especially true for contaminated lands where there are a variety of remediation, restoration, and future land-use decisions to be made. This paper synthesizes several surveys from four US Department of Energy (DOE) sites in the states of South Carolina, Idaho, Nevada, and New York. Although ethnic composition varied among the sites, age and gender did not. The percentage of the study population engaged in hunting ranged from 30% to 41% and that in fishing ranged from 55% to 74%. Average hunting rates ranged from 9 (New York) to 15 (South Carolina) days/year; average fishing rates ranged from 12 (New Mexico) to 38 (New York) days a year. Despite the demographic and recreational rate differences, there was remarkable agreement about future land uses. Maintaining these DOE sites as National Environmental Research Parks and using them for nonconsumptive recreation rated the highest. The lowest rated future land uses were current and additional nuclear waste storage and the building of homes and factories. People who participated in a recreational activity rated those future land uses higher than nonusers. While these data on recreational rates can be used to assess the potential risk to people using contaminated sites and to aid in setting clean-up standards based on potential risk, the information on land-use preferences can be used by managers to determine future use and to plan for such use. This information is particularly relevant to the Department of Energy's 'Risk-based End State Vision'

Does reading scenarios of future land use changes affect willingness to participate in land use planning?

Science.gov (United States)

Michelle L. Johnson; Kathleen P. Bell; Mario F. Teisl

2016-01-01

Scenarios of future outcomes often provide context for policy decisions and can be a form of science communication, translating complex and uncertain relationships into stories for a broader audience. We conducted a survey experiment (n = 270) to test the effects of reading land use change scenarios on willingness to participate in land use planning activities. In the...

A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Fuchs

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country, plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30–100 m remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems. Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as

Future land use and concerns about the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory: A survey of urban dwellers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burger, J.; Roush, D.; Wartenberg, D.; Gochfeld, M.

1999-01-01

The authors examined environmental concerns and future land-use preferences of 487 people attending the Boise River Festival in Boise, Idaho, USA, about the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (NEEL), owned by the US Department of Energy (DOE). They were particularly interested in the perceptions of urban dwellers living at some distance from the facility, since attitudes and perceptions are usually examined for people living near such facilities. More than 50% of the people were most worried about contamination and about waste storage and transport, another 23% were concerned about human health and accidents and spills, and the rest listed other concerns such as jobs and the economy of education. When given a list of possible concerns, accidents and spills, storage of current nuclear materials, and storage of additional nuclear materials were rated the highest. Thus both open-ended and structured questions identified nuclear storage and accidents and spills as the most important concerns, even for people living far from a DOE site. The highest rated future land used were National Environmental Research Park, recreation, and returning the land to the Shoshone-Bannock tribes; the lowest rated future land uses were homes and increased nuclear waste storage. These relative rankings are similar to those obtained for other Idahoans living closer to the site and for the people living near the Savannah River Site. The concern expressed about accidents and spills and waste storage translated into a desire not to see additional waste brought to INEEL and a low rating for using INEEL for building homes

Scenarios for a sustainable energy system in the Åland Islands in 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Child, Michael; Nordling, Alexander; Breyer, Christian

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A fully sustainable energy system for the Åland Islands is possible by 2030. • 100% RE-based domestic production can be achieved with or without reliance on imported energy. • A highly electrified transport sector results in lower annualised energy system costs. • Highly electrified transport may promote employment and international partnerships. • Energy system scenarios were simulated for the Åland Islands with the EnergyPLAN modelling tool. - Abstract: A fully sustainable energy system for the Åland islands is possible by 2030 based on the assumptions in this study. Several scenarios were constructed for the future energy system based on various combinations of domestic production of wind and solar photovoltaic power, expanded domestic energy storage solutions, electrified transport, and strategic energy carrier trade. Hourly analysis of scenarios using the EnergyPLAN tool shows that annualised costs of operating a future sustainable energy system for the year 2030 range between 225 and 247 M€/a compared to 229 M€/a for the business as usual case. However, this result is highly dependent on how vehicle and battery costs are accounted. A scenario featuring a highly electrified transport sector, including a wide range of terrestrial and aquatic forms of mobility, was among the most cost competitive solutions due to high levels of flexibility and electric storage harnessed in the energy system. In this scenario cost reductions were achieved as high capacities of electric vehicle battery storage resulted in less need for seasonal storage and synthetic fuel production in the form of Power-to-Gas technologies and offshore wind power capacity. Results also indicate that 100% renewable energy-based domestic energy production can be achieved in Åland, with or without reliance on imported energy carriers, such as sustainable biofuels or electricity. A demonstration of a highly electrified transport sector may also offer Åland society

Challenges of pin-point landing for planetary landing: the LION absolute vision-based navigation approach and experimental results

OpenAIRE

Voirin, Thomas; Delaune, Jeff; Le Besnerais, Guy; Farges, Jean Loup; Bourdarias, Clément; Krüger, Hans

2013-01-01

After ExoMars in 2016 and 2018, future ESA missions to Mars, the Moon, or asteroids will require safe and pinpoint precision landing capabilities, with for example a specified accuracy of typically 100 m at touchdown for a Moon landing. The safe landing requirement can be met thanks to state-of-the-art Terrain-Relative Navigation (TRN) sensors such as Wide-Field-of-View vision-based navigation cameras (VBNC), with appropriate hazard detection and avoidance algorithms. To reach the pinpoint pr...

Using historical data to measure transportation infrastructure constraints on land use.

Science.gov (United States)

1998-06-01

This study had three goals: (1) To develop a method for reversing the planning process, such that we begin with transportation system usage and conclude with transportation system usage and conclude with an indication of land use; (2) To validate thi...

Regional transportation and land use decision making in metropolitan regions : findings from four case studies.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-01

"Throughout the United States, metropolitan regions face increasingly complex issues related to transportation and : land use. The diffuse nature of decision making creates a need to better coordinate land use and transportation to : address issues s...

Building a sustainable land public transportation at Ayer Keroh, Malacca: Perspective view from hang tuah jaya municipal council (HTJMC)

Science.gov (United States)

Sukri, Fatin Hafizah; Chew, Boon Cheong; Hamid, Syaiful Rizal; Loo, Heoy Shin

2017-03-01

Sustainable land public transportation (SLPT) aims to promote a better and healthier ways of meeting individual and community needs. Even though sufficient land public transportation have been provided at Ayer Keroh, Malacca but the level of usage among the community is still low as there is the growth in traffic. Hang Tuah Jaya Municipal Council (HTJMC) is responsible to identify the most appropriate strategies to manage the issues regarding SLPT in order to support of the Malacca state vision becoming Green Technology State in the year 2020. Therefore, this paper attempts to examine the strategies involve in building a SLPT, which may enhance the community's welfare. Thus, the proposed theoretical framework is to demonstrate the strategies towards building a SLPT, which can cater issues within the municipal council area. In this qualitative research, an in-depth focus group have been conducted to obtain the primary data. Thirteen (13) executives from HTJMC involved. This study brings a new paradigm in transforming land public transportation at Ayer Keroh to enhance the community welfare. The result found that land use development as the most significant strategy in SLPT, meanwhile the implementation program is the least strategy involved in building a SLPT at Ayer Keroh. Future research requires more information on the factors of implementing of SLPT so that HTJMC can plan an effective SLPT thorough the demand as the data may indicate numbers of passengers who really support to the implementation of SLPT.

Entry, Descent, and Landing With Propulsive Deceleration

Science.gov (United States)

Palaszewski, Bryan

2012-01-01

The future exploration of the Solar System will require innovations in transportation and the use of entry, descent, and landing (EDL) systems at many planetary landing sites. The cost of space missions has always been prohibitive, and using the natural planetary and planet s moons atmospheres for entry, descent, and landing can reduce the cost, mass, and complexity of these missions. This paper will describe some of the EDL ideas for planetary entry and survey the overall technologies for EDL that may be attractive for future Solar System missions.

Long-term land use future scenarios for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-08-01

In order to facilitate decision regarding environmental restoration activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), the United States Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) conducted analyses to project reasonable future land use scenarios at the INEL for the next 100 years. The methodology for generating these scenarios included: review of existing DOE plans, policy statements, and mission statements pertaining to the INEL; review of surrounding land use characteristics and county developments policies; solicitation of input from local, county, state and federal planners, policy specialists, environmental professionals, and elected officials; and review of environmental and development constraints at the INEL site that could influence future land use

Revisiting the contribution of land transport and shipping emissions to tropospheric ozone

Science.gov (United States)

Mertens, Mariano; Grewe, Volker; Rieger, Vanessa S.; Jöckel, Patrick

2018-04-01

, particularly in regions with large emissions (up to a factor of 4 for Europe). Our estimates of the ozone radiative forcing due to land transport and shipping emissions are, based on the tagging method, 92 and 62 mW m-2, respectively. Compared to our best estimates, previously reported values using the perturbation approach are almost a factor of 2 lower, while previous estimates using NOx-only tagging are almost a factor of 2 larger. Overall our results highlight the importance of differentiating between the perturbation and the tagging approach, as they answer two different questions. In line with previous studies, we argue that only the tagging approach (or source apportionment approaches in general) can estimate the contribution of emissions, which is important to attribute emission sources to climate change and/or extreme ozone events. The perturbation approach, however, is important to investigate the effect of an emission change. To effectively assess mitigation options, both approaches should be combined. This combination allows us to track changes in the ozone production efficiency of emissions from sources which are not mitigated and shows how the ozone share caused by these unmitigated emission sources subsequently increases.

Developing a New North American Land Cover Product at 30m Resolution: Methods, Results and Future Plans

Science.gov (United States)

Homer, C.; Colditz, R. R.; Latifovic, R.; Llamas, R. M.; Pouliot, D.; Danielson, P.; Meneses, C.; Victoria, A.; Ressl, R.; Richardson, K.; Vulpescu, M.

2017-12-01

Land cover and land cover change information at regional and continental scales has become fundamental for studying and understanding the terrestrial environment. With recent advances in computer science and freely available image archives, continental land cover mapping has been advancing to higher spatial resolution products. The North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) remains the principal provider of seamless land cover maps of North America. Founded in 2006, this collaboration among the governments of Canada, Mexico and the United States has released two previous products based on 250m MODIS images, including a 2005 land cover and a 2005-2010 land cover change product. NALCMS has recently completed the next generation North America land cover product, based upon 30m Landsat images. This product now provides the first ever 30m land cover produced for the North American continent, providing 19 classes of seamless land cover. This presentation provides an overview of country-specific image classification processes, describes the continental map production process, provides results for the North American continent and discusses future plans. NALCMS is coordinated by the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) and all products can be obtained at their website - www.cec.org.

Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruci Wang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Simulating future land use/cover changes is of great importance for urban planners and decision-makers, especially in metropolitan areas, to maintain a sustainable environment. This study examines the changes in land use/cover in the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA from 2007 to 2017 as a first step in using supervised classification. Second, based on the map results, we predicted the expected patterns of change in 2027 and 2037 by employing a hybrid model composed of cellular automata and the Markov model. The next step was to decide the model inputs consisting of the modeling variables affecting the distribution of land use/cover in the study area, for instance distance to central business district (CBD and distance to railways, in addition to the classified maps of 2007 and 2017. Finally, we considered three scenarios for simulating land use/cover changes: spontaneous, sub-region development, and green space improvement. Simulation results show varied patterns of change according to the different scenarios. The sub-region development scenario is the most promising because it balances between urban areas, resources, and green spaces. This study provides significant insight for planners about change trends in the TMA and future challenges that might be encountered to maintain a sustainable region.

The transport of radioactive materials - Future challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilkinson, W.L.

2008-01-01

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Regulations for the Safe Transport of Radioactive Materials, TS-R-1, set the standards for the packages used in the transport of radioactive materials under both normal and accident conditions. Transport organisations are also required to implement Radiation Protection Programmes to control radiation dose exposure to both workers and the public. The industry has now operated under this regulatory regime safely and efficiently for nearly 50 years. It is vital that this record be maintained in the future when the demands on the transport industry are increasing. Nuclear power is being called upon more and more to satisfy the world's growing need for sustainable, clean and affordable electricity and there will be a corresponding demand for nuclear fuel cycle services. There will also be a growing need for other radioactive materials, notably large sources such as Cobalt 60 sources for a range of important medical and industrial uses, as well as radio-pharmaceuticals. A reliable transport infrastructure is essential to support all these industry sectors and the challenge will be to ensure that this can be maintained safely and securely in a changing world where public and political concerns are increasing. This paper will discuss the main issues which need to be addressed. The demand for uranium has led to increased exploration and the development of mines in new locations far removed from the demand centres. This inevitably leads to more transport, sometimes from areas potentially lacking in transport infrastructure, service providers, and experience. The demand for sources for medical applications will also increase, particularly from the rapidly developing regions and this will also involve new transport routes and increased traffic. This raises a variety of issues concerning the ability of the transport infrastructure to meet the future challenge, particularly in an environment where there already exists reluctance on

NativeView: Our Land, Our People, Our Future

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, T.

2006-05-01

The objective of this discussion is to (1) discuss the chasm between the breadth of Tribal land and resource to be sustained compared to the finite number of Tribal people trained in the sciences; (2) illustrate the need for integrating scientific knowledge with cultural knowledge; and (3) discuss the emergence of NativeView as Tribal College (TCUs) initiative leading the integration of geoscience and geospatial technology (GIS, Remote Sensing) with cultural knowledge to meet the growing needs of indigenous communities. It's about our land, our people and the need for highly trained individuals to sustainable and manage our resources for the future. There is a tremendous gap between total acreage of land owned or managed and the level of education obtained by indigenous people. In the United States today, American Indians and Alaskan Natives account for less than one percent of the total population, yet are responsible for more than five percent of the total land area. In North Dakota, there are over 54 thousand American Indians responsible for more than 3.8 million acres of Tribal Land. In contrast, less than 15 percent of indigenous people finish a Bachelor's degree of any kind and far fewer finish a science degree that would help them become more effective and responsible land managers. This poses an important dilemma. How will the Tribes meet (1) the resource needs of a growing population, (2) the demand for a skilled workforce, and (3) resource management goals in ways that contribute to Tribal infrastructure and equate to sustainable resource management? The integration of geoscience and geospatial technologies into the curriculum of Tribal Colleges (TCU's) has quietly emerged as one of the leading initiatives across Indian Country. These skills are widely recognized as a vehicle to empower our constituents in the sciences, in the cultural values and the traditional land ethic that defines us as a people. NativeView has taken the lead in working with the

Integrating climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : an example from central New Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

2015-04-01

The Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project, an Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Initiative, utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multiagency transportation- and land use-focused development st...

Ion and metabolite transport in the chloroplast of algae: lessons from land plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Marchand, Justine; Heydarizadeh, Parisa; Schoefs, Benoît; Spetea, Cornelia

2018-06-01

Chloroplasts are endosymbiotic organelles and play crucial roles in energy supply and metabolism of eukaryotic photosynthetic organisms (algae and land plants). They harbor channels and transporters in the envelope and thylakoid membranes, mediating the exchange of ions and metabolites with the cytosol and the chloroplast stroma and between the different chloroplast subcompartments. In secondarily evolved algae, three or four envelope membranes surround the chloroplast, making more complex the exchange of ions and metabolites. Despite the importance of transport proteins for the optimal functioning of the chloroplast in algae, and that many land plant homologues have been predicted, experimental evidence and molecular characterization are missing in most cases. Here, we provide an overview of the current knowledge about ion and metabolite transport in the chloroplast from algae. The main aspects reviewed are localization and activity of the transport proteins from algae and/or of homologues from other organisms including land plants. Most chloroplast transporters were identified in the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, reside in the envelope and participate in carbon acquisition and metabolism. Only a few identified algal transporters are located in the thylakoid membrane and play role in ion transport. The presence of genes for putative transporters in green algae, red algae, diatoms, glaucophytes and cryptophytes is discussed, and roles in the chloroplast are suggested. A deep knowledge in this field is required because algae represent a potential source of biomass and valuable metabolites for industry, medicine and agriculture.

MODELING OF FUTURE LAND COVER LAND USE CHANGE IN NORTH CAROLINA USING MARKOV CHAIN AND CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODEL

OpenAIRE

Mohammad Sayemuzzaman; Manoj K. Jha

2014-01-01

State wide variant topographic features in North Carolina attract the hydro-climatologist. There is none modeling study found that predict future Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) change for whole North Carolina. In this study, satellite-derived land cover maps of year 1992, 2001 and 2006 of North Carolina were integrated within the framework of the Markov-Cellular Automata (Markov-CA) model which combines the Markov chain and Cellular Automata (CA) techniques. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) was ...

Agent-based land markets: Heterogeneous agents, land proces and urban land use change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Filatova, Tatiana; Parker, Dawn C.; van der Veen, A.; Amblard, F.

2007-01-01

We construct a spatially explicit agent-based model of a bilateral land market. Heterogeneous agents form their bid and ask prices for land based on the utility that they obtain from a certain location (houte/land) and base on the state of the market (an excess of demand or supply). We underline the

A New Scheme for Considering Soil Water-Heat Transport Coupling Based on Community Land Model: Model Description and Preliminary Validation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chenghai; Yang, Kai

2018-04-01

Land surface models (LSMs) have developed significantly over the past few decades, with the result that most LSMs can generally reproduce the characteristics of the land surface. However, LSMs fail to reproduce some details of soil water and heat transport during seasonal transition periods because they neglect the effects of interactions between water movement and heat transfer in the soil. Such effects are critical for a complete understanding of water-heat transport within a soil thermohydraulic regime. In this study, a fully coupled water-heat transport scheme (FCS) is incorporated into the Community Land Model (version 4.5) to replaces its original isothermal scheme, which is more complete in theory. Observational data from five sites are used to validate the performance of the FCS. The simulation results at both single-point and global scale show that the FCS improved the simulation of soil moisture and temperature. FCS better reproduced the characteristics of drier and colder surface layers in arid regions by considering the diffusion of soil water vapor, which is a nonnegligible process in soil, especially for soil surface layers, while its effects in cold regions are generally inverse. It also accounted for the sensible heat fluxes caused by liquid water flow, which can contribute to heat transfer in both surface and deep layers. The FCS affects the estimation of surface sensible heat (SH) and latent heat (LH) and provides the details of soil heat and water transportation, which benefits to understand the inner physical process of soil water-heat migration.

Land Use, climate change and BIOdiversity in cultural landscapes (LUBIO): Assessing feedbacks and promoting land-use strategies towards a viable future

Science.gov (United States)

Dullinger, Iwona; Bohner, Andreas; Dullinger, Stefan; Essl, Franz; Gaube, Veronika; Haberl, Helmut; Mayer, Andreas; Plutzar, Christoph; Remesch, Alexander

2016-04-01

Land-use and climate change are important, pervasive drivers of global environmental change and pose major threats to global biodiversity. Research to date has mostly focused either on land-use change or on climate change, but rarely on the interactions between both drivers, even though it is expected that systemic feedbacks between changes in climate and land use will have important effects on biodiversity. In particular, climate change will not only alter the pool of plant and animal species capable of thriving in a specific area, it will also force land owners to reconsider their land use decisions. Such changes in land-use practices may have major additional effects on local and regional species composition and abundance. In LUBIO, we will explore the anticipated systemic feedbacks between (1) climate change, (2) land owner's decisions on land use, (3) land-use change, and (4) changes in biodiversity patterns during the coming decades in a regional context which integrates a broad range of land use practices and intensity gradients. To achieve this goal, an integrated socioecological model will be designed and implemented, consisting of three principal components: (1) an agent based model (ABM) that simulates decisions of important actors, (2) a spatially explicit GIS model that translates these decisions into changes in land cover and land use patterns, and (3) a species distribution model (SDM) that calculates changes in biodiversity patterns following from both changes in climate and the land use decisions as simulated in the ABM. Upon integration of these three components, the coupled socioecological model will be used to generate scenarios of future land-use decisions of landowners under climate change and, eventually, the combined effects of climate and land use changes on biodiversity. Model development of the ABM will be supported by a participatory process intended to collect regional and expert knowledge through a series of expert interviews, a series

Reducing uncertainty in dust monitoring to detect aeolian sediment transport responses to land cover change

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, N.; Chappell, A.; Van Zee, J.; Toledo, D.; Duniway, M.; Billings, B.; Tedela, N.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) influence global rates of wind erosion and dust emission, yet our understanding of the magnitude of the responses remains poor. Field measurements and monitoring provide essential data to resolve aeolian sediment transport patterns and assess the impacts of human land use and management intensity. Data collected in the field are also required for dust model calibration and testing, as models have become the primary tool for assessing LULCC-dust cycle interactions. However, there is considerable uncertainty in estimates of dust emission due to the spatial variability of sediment transport. Field sampling designs are currently rudimentary and considerable opportunities are available to reduce the uncertainty. Establishing the minimum detectable change is critical for measuring spatial and temporal patterns of sediment transport, detecting potential impacts of LULCC and land management, and for quantifying the uncertainty of dust model estimates. Here, we evaluate the effectiveness of common sampling designs (e.g., simple random sampling, systematic sampling) used to measure and monitor aeolian sediment transport rates. Using data from the US National Wind Erosion Research Network across diverse rangeland and cropland cover types, we demonstrate how only large changes in sediment mass flux (of the order 200% to 800%) can be detected when small sample sizes are used, crude sampling designs are implemented, or when the spatial variation is large. We then show how statistical rigour and the straightforward application of a sampling design can reduce the uncertainty and detect change in sediment transport over time and between land use and land cover types.

Focus on land reclamation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-04-01

Various aspects of land reclamation, i.e. returning disturbed land to a state where, at minimum, it is at least capable of supporting the same kinds of land uses as before the disturbance, are discussed. Activities which disturb the land such as surface mining of coal, surface mining and extraction of oil sands, drilling for oil and natural gas, waste disposal sites, including sanitary landfills, clearing timber for forestry, excavating for pipelines and transportation are described, along with land reclamation legislation in Alberta, and indications of future developments in land reclamation research, legislation and regulation. Practical guidelines for individuals are provided on how they might contribute to land reclamation through judicious and informed consumerism, and through practicing good land management, inclusive of reduced use of herbicides, composting of household wastes, and planting of native species or ground cover in place of traditional lawns.

Future changes in large-scale transport and stratosphere-troposphere exchange

Science.gov (United States)

Abalos, M.; Randel, W. J.; Kinnison, D. E.; Garcia, R. R.

2017-12-01

Future changes in large-scale transport are investigated in long-term (1955-2099) simulations of the Community Earth System Model - Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM) under an RCP6.0 climate change scenario. We examine artificial passive tracers in order to isolate transport changes from future changes in emissions and chemical processes. The model suggests enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange in both directions (STE), with decreasing tropospheric and increasing stratospheric tracer concentrations in the troposphere. Changes in the different transport processes are evaluated using the Transformed Eulerian Mean continuity equation, including parameterized convective transport. Dynamical changes associated with the rise of the tropopause height are shown to play a crucial role on future transport trends.

Modeling vulnerability of groundwater to pollution under future scenarios of climate change and biofuels-related land use change: a case study in North Dakota, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ruopu; Merchant, James W

2013-03-01

Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality. Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use conditions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with high vulnerability will expand northward and/or northwestward in Eastern North Dakota under different scenarios. GIS-based models that account for future changes in climate and land use can help decision-makers identify potential future threats to groundwater quality and take early steps to protect this critical resource. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Livestock and human use of land: Productivity trends and dietary choices as drivers of future land and carbon dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Humpenöder, Florian; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Stevanović, Miodrag

2017-12-01

Land use change has been the primary driving force of human alteration of terrestrial ecosystems. With 80% of agricultural land dedicated to livestock production, the sector is an important lever to attenuate land requirements for food production and carbon emissions from land use change. In this study, we quantify impacts of changing human diets and livestock productivity on land dynamics and depletion of carbon stored in vegetation, litter and soils. Across all investigated productivity pathways, lower consumption of livestock products can substantially reduce deforestation (47-55%) and cumulative carbon losses (34-57%). On the supply side, already minor productivity growth in extensive livestock production systems leads to substantial CO2 emission abatement, but the emission saving potential of productivity gains in intensive systems is limited, also involving trade-offs with soil carbon stocks. If accounting for uncertainties related to future trade restrictions, crop yields and pasture productivity, the range of projected carbon savings from changing diets increases to 23-78%. Highest abatement of carbon emissions (63-78%) can be achieved if reduced consumption of animal-based products is combined with sustained investments into productivity increases in plant production. Our analysis emphasizes the importance to integrate demand- and supply-side oriented mitigation strategies and to combine efforts in the crop and livestock sector to enable synergies for climate protection.

Land based use of natural gas - distribution solutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jordanger, Einar; Moelnvik, Mona J.; Owren, Geir; Einang, Per Magne; Grinden, Bjoern; Tangen, Grethe

2002-05-01

The report presents results from the project ''Landbasert bruk av naturgass - distribusjonsloesninger'' (Land based use of natural gas - distribution solutions). It describes the aims of the project, the political external conditions for the use of natural gas, some environmental profits by changing from petroleum and coal to natural gas, the Norwegian infrastructure, the optimisation of energy transport, strategic consequences of the introduction of LNG and the practical consequences of the Enova strategy

Future transport power sources. Executive summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rautavirta, M.; Jaaskelainen, S.

2013-09-15

On 17 January 2012 Minister of Transport Merja Kyllonen appointed a working group to explore alternative propulsion systems for the transport of the future. The task of the group was to examine .. on the basis of the current modes of transport and their expected renewal rate .. what forms of propulsion would be possible in Finland in the future, to what extent they could be used, and on what timetable they could be adopted. In addition, the working group was to issue recommendations on what measures should be taken. The group's vision is that passenger car traffic, rail transport and boating will be almost entirely independent of oil in 2050. Liquid and gaseous biofuels should cover at least 70 per cent of the fuels used in heavy-goods transport by 2050, and electricity should have an equally large share in bus and delivery transport in urban areas. In aviation, biokerosine would replace 40 per cent of the current fuels and in shipping, the use of sustainable alternative fuels would contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 40-50 per cent. Transport in airport and port terminals would be nearly emission-free as early as 2030. To achieve the goal for private motoring, the working group proposes that an interim target be set whereby all new private cars registered in 2030 should be capable of using alternative fuels. In addition, energy-efficiency needs to improve by nearly 50 per cent from the 2013 level. As far as maritime transport is concerned, the LNG Action Plan must be implemented by as early as 2020. On the basis of its study, the working group puts forward recommendations for measures to be implemented by 2020 and indicators for monitoring the implementation. (orig.)

Urban development control based on transportation carrying capacity

Science.gov (United States)

Miharja, M.; Sjafruddin, A. H.

2017-06-01

Severe transportation problems in Indonesian urban areas are stimulated by one fundamental factor, namely lack of awareness on transportation carrying capacity in these areas development control. Urban land use development towards more physical coverage is typically not related with the capability of transportation system to accommodate additional trips volume. Lack of clear connection between development permit with its implication on the transportation side has led to a phenomenon of exceeding transport demand over supply capacity. This paper discusses the concept of urban land use development control which will be related with transport carrying capacity. The discussion would cover both supply and demand sides of transportation. From supply side, the analysis regarding the capacity of transport system would take both existing as well as potential road network capacity could be developed. From demand side, the analysis would be through the control of a maximum floor area and public transport provision. Allowed maximum floor area for development would be at the level of generating traffic at reasonable volume. Ultimately, the objective of this paper is to introduce model to incorporate transport carrying capacity in Indonesian urban land use development control.

Scenario-Based Analysis on the Structural Change of Land Uses in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qian Xu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Land Use/Land Cover change (LUCC is a key aspect of global environmental change, which has a significant impact on climate change. In the background of increasing global warming resulting from greenhouse effect, to understand the impact of land use change on climate change is necessary and meaningful. In this study, we choose China as the study area and explore the possible land use change trends based on the AgLU module and ERB module of global change assessment model (GCAM model and Global Change Assessment Model. We design three scenarios based on socioeconomic development and simulated the corresponding structure change of land use according to the three scenarios with different parameters. Then we simulate the different emission of CO2 under different scenarios based on the simulation results of structure change of land use. At last, we choose the most suitable scenario that could control the emission of CO2 best and obtain the relatively better land use structure change for adaption of climate change. Through this research we can provide a theoretical basis for the future land use planning to adapt to climate change.

Alternatives for future land disposal of radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mallory, C.W.

1982-01-01

Shallow land burial incorporating improvements to facilitate stabilization and decommissioning will continue to be the primary method of disposing of low level waste in areas where conditions are suitable for this type of disposal. The existing disposal sites should be closely monitored to assure that continued acceptance of this method of disposal. Plans for the decommissioning of the existing sites should be closely reviewed to assure that the planning is adequate and that adequate resources will be available to implement the decommissioning plan. For these areas where geological conditions are not suitable for shallow land burial and in situations where a higher degree of containment is desired, alternative disposal methods should be considered. Technology exists or is readily attainable to provide engineered disposal facilities which provide a higher degree of containment and can be readily decommissioned. The cost of disposal using these methods can be competitive with shallow land burial when the cost of environmental and hydrogeologic investigations and decommissioning are included. Disposal of radioactive waste having low activity in secure sanitary landfills could significantly reduce the transportation and disposal requirements for low level waste

The Role of Subsurface Properties on Transport of Water and Trace Gases: 1D Simulations at Selected Mars Landing Sites.

Science.gov (United States)

Karatekin, O.; Gloesener, E.; Dehant, V. M. A.

2017-12-01

In this work, water ice stability and water vapour transport through porous martian subsurface are studied using a 1D diffusive model. The role of adsorption on water transfer in martian conditions is investigated as well as the range of parameters that have the largest effect on gas transport. In addition, adsorption kinetics is considered to examine its influence on the water vapor exchange between the subsurface and the atmosphere. As methane has been detected in the martian atmosphere, the subsurface model is then used to study methane diffusion in the CH4/CO2/H2O system from variable depths under the surface. The results of subsurface gas transport at selected locations/landing sites are shown and implications for present/future observations are discussed.

Pathway to future sustainable land imaging: the compact hyperspectral prism spectrometer

Science.gov (United States)

Kampe, Thomas U.; Good, William S.

2017-09-01

NASA's Sustainable Land Imaging (SLI) program, managed through the Earth Science Technology Office, aims to develop technologies that will provide future Landsat-like measurements. SLI aims to develop a new generation of smaller, more capable, less costly payloads that meet or exceed current imaging capabilities. One projects funded by this program is Ball's Compact Hyperspectral Prism Spectrometer (CHPS), a visible-to-shortwave imaging spectrometer that provides legacy Landsat data products as well as hyperspectral coverage suitable for a broad range of land science products. CHPS exhibits extremely low straylight and accommodates full aperture, full optical path calibration needed to ensure the high radiometric accuracy demanded by SLI measurement objectives. Low polarization sensitivity in visible to near-infrared bands facilitates coastal water science as first demonstrated by the exceptional performance of the Operational Land Imager. Our goal is to mature CHPS imaging spectrometer technology for infusion into the SLI program. Our effort builds on technology development initiated by Ball IRAD investment and includes laboratory and airborne demonstration, data distribution to science collaborators, and maturation of technology for spaceborne demonstration. CHPS is a three year program with expected exiting technology readiness of TRL-6. The 2013 NRC report Landsat and Beyond: Sustaining and Enhancing the Nations Land Imaging Program recommended that the nation should "maintain a sustained, space-based, land-imaging program, while ensuring the continuity of 42-years of multispectral information." We are confident that CHPS provides a path to achieve this goal while enabling new science measurements and significantly reducing the cost, size, and volume of the VSWIR instrument.

Preliminary results of the search for possible Martian landing sites to be considered for future European exploration missions

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, P.

2007-08-01

The recently adopted European Space Policy aims at expanding and coordinating the role and activities of Europe's space actors with the purpose of increasing both scientific knowledge in selected space domains and the European presence in the Solar System, as well as optimising the relevant societal benefits. With our Moon and in particular Mars as primary targets of exploration goals for the Solar System, and following a number of very successful orbital missions performing detailed remote sensing and mapping of these planetary bodies, probe landings on the surface of the Moon and Mars represent the next stepping stone of the exploration of our close planetary environment. Along with developing the hardware capabilities required for Europe to reach such ambitious goals, it therefore becomes increasingly important to pinpoint with precision a number of landing sites well suited for the safety and scientific success of future robotic missions. Focusing on Mars, and although a number of candidate landing sites and associated catalogs with available scientific justification already exist, the results being obtained by orbiters such as Mars Express and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter are fundamentally transforming our knowledge of the planet's surface, which in turns highlights the need to review, update and revise the candidate sites for future landing missions on Mars. Detailed investigations of possible future Martian landing sites for European missions are ongoing, based on the wealth of scientific data and high-resolution mapping products available. In order to support the identification of suitable sites, various mapping products (geological, hyperspectral and compositional) can be consolidated, and various areas of Mars identified in the recent scientific literature as primary targets for landing can be taken into account for further, refined assessment of their suitability for landing. Seasonal and climatic effects potentially influencing landing shall also be

Can Strategic Spatial Planning Contribute to Land Degradation Reduction in Urban Regions? State of the Art and Future Research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo Oliveira

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Land degradation is becoming a serious environmental issue threatening fertile agricultural soils and other natural resources. There are many driving forces behind land degradation. The expansion of artificial surfaces due to various economic activities, such as housing, industry, and transport infrastructure, known as soil sealing, constitutes one of the most intensive forms of land degradation in urban regions. Measures to halt and reverse land degradation require both strong land-use management policies, as well as effective spatial planning mechanisms. In this regard, strategic spatial planning has been increasingly practised in many urban regions worldwide, as a means to achieve sustainable land-use patterns and to guide the location of development and physical infrastructures. It is reasonable, therefore, to expect that strategic spatial planning can counteract the outlined undesired land degradation effects, specifically those resulting from soil sealing. In this paper, we review strategic spatial planning literature published between 1992 and 2017. The focus is on the phenomena causing land degradation that are addressed by strategic spatial planning literature, as well as on the mechanisms describing the role of strategic spatial planning in land degradation reduction. Results show that sustainable development and environmental concerns have become core objectives of strategic planning in recent years, yet references to the drivers of land degradation are rare. The mechanisms that exist are mainly intended to address environmental issues in general, and are not aimed at reducing particular forms of land degradation. The paper concludes by sketching future research directions, intended to support strategic spatial planning and land-use policymaking related to coping with the global phenomenon of land degradation.

Sensitivity analysis of land unit suitability for conservation using a knowledge-based system.

Science.gov (United States)

Humphries, Hope C; Bourgeron, Patrick S; Reynolds, Keith M

2010-08-01

The availability of spatially continuous data layers can have a strong impact on selection of land units for conservation purposes. The suitability of ecological conditions for sustaining the targets of conservation is an important consideration in evaluating candidate conservation sites. We constructed two fuzzy logic-based knowledge bases to determine the conservation suitability of land units in the interior Columbia River basin using NetWeaver software in the Ecosystem Management Decision Support application framework. Our objective was to assess the sensitivity of suitability ratings, derived from evaluating the knowledge bases, to fuzzy logic function parameters and to the removal of data layers (land use condition, road density, disturbance regime change index, vegetation change index, land unit size, cover type size, and cover type change index). The amount and geographic distribution of suitable land polygons was most strongly altered by the removal of land use condition, road density, and land polygon size. Removal of land use condition changed suitability primarily on private or intensively-used public land. Removal of either road density or land polygon size most strongly affected suitability on higher-elevation US Forest Service land containing small-area biophysical environments. Data layers with the greatest influence differed in rank between the two knowledge bases. Our results reinforce the importance of including both biophysical and socio-economic attributes to determine the suitability of land units for conservation. The sensitivity tests provided information about knowledge base structuring and parameterization as well as prioritization for future data needs.

A Human Resource Development Action Plan for the Radiography Program Sponsored by Lincoln Land/St. John's Based on a View of the Radiographer of the Future.

Science.gov (United States)

Dowd, Steven B.

The purpose of a practicum was to develop an effective and valid human resource development plan based on a view of the practitioner of the future. The targeted program was one in radiography (radiologic technology) co-sponsored by Lincoln Land Community College and St. John's Hospital (Illinois). A review of the literature was used to establish a…

Accessibility measures: review and applications. Evaluation of accessibility impacts of land-use transportation scenarios, and related social and economic impact

OpenAIRE

Geurs KT; Ritsema van Eck JR; Universiteit Utrecht-URU; LAE

2001-01-01

This report describes an extensive literature study and three case studies aimed at reviewing accessibility measures for their ability to evaluate the accessibility impacts of national land-use and transport scenarios, and related social and economic impacts. Several activity- and utility-based accessibility measures were computed to analyse job accessibility by car and public transport in the Netherlands for: (1) the (base) year 1995, (2) a Trend, or business-as-usual, scenario, representing...

The impact of precipitation on land interfacility transport times.

Science.gov (United States)

Giang, Wayne C W; Donmez, Birsen; Ahghari, Mahvareh; MacDonald, Russell D

2014-12-01

Timely transfer of patients among facilities within a regionalized critical-care system remains a large obstacle to effective patient care. For medical transport systems where dispatchers are responsible for planning these interfacility transfers, accurate estimates of interfacility transfer times play a large role in planning and resource-allocation decisions. However, the impact of adverse weather conditions on transfer times is not well understood. Precipitation negatively impacts driving conditions and can decrease free-flow speeds and increase travel times. The objective of this research was to quantify and model the effects of different precipitation types on land travel times for interfacility patient transfers. It was hypothesized that the effects of precipitation would accumulate as the distance of the transfer increased, and they would differ based on the type of precipitation. Urgent and emergent interfacility transfers carried out by the medical transport system in Ontario from 2005 through 2011 were linked to Environment Canada's (Gatineau, Quebec, Canada) climate data. Two linear models were built to estimate travel times based on precipitation type and driving distance: one for transfers between cities (intercity) and another for transfers within a city (intracity). Precipitation affected both transfer types. For intercity transfers, the magnitude of the delays increased as driving distance increased. For median-distance intercity transfers (48 km), snow produced delays of approximately 9.1% (3.1 minutes), while rain produced delays of 8.4% (2.9 minutes). For intracity transfers, the magnitude of delays attributed to precipitation did not depend on distance driven. Transfers in rain were 8.6% longer (1.7 minutes) compared to no precipitation, whereas only statistically marginal effects were observed for snow. Precipitation increases the duration of interfacility land ambulance travel times by eight percent to ten percent. For transfers between cities

Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alison Rothwell

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Present decisions about urbanization of peri-urban (PU areas may contribute to the capacity of cities to mitigate future climate change. Comprehensive mitigative responses to PU development should require integration of urban form and food production to realise potential trade-offs. Despite this, few studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG implications of future urban development combined with impacts on PU food production. In this paper, four future scenarios, at 2050 and 2100 time horizons, were developed to evaluate the potential GHG emissions implications of feeding and housing a growing urban population in Sydney, Australia. The scenarios were thematically downscaled from the four relative concentration pathways. Central to the scenarios were differences in population, technology, energy, housing form, transportation, temperature, food production and land use change (LUC. A life cycle assessment approach was used within the scenarios to evaluate differences in GHG impacts. Differences in GHG emissions between scenarios at the 2100 time horizon, per area of PU land transformed, approximated 0.7 Mt CO2-e per year. Per additional resident this equated to 0.7 to 6.1 t CO2-e per year. Indirect LUC has the potential to be significant. Interventions such as carbon capture and storage technology, renewables and urban form markedly reduced emissions. However, incorporating cross-sectoral energy saving measures within urban planning at the regional scale requires a paradigmatic shift.

Transportation fuels of the future?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piel, W.J.

2001-01-01

Society is putting more emphasis on the mobile transportation sector to achieve future goals of sustainability and a cleaner environment. To achieve these goals, does society need to jump to a new combination of fuel and vehicle technology or can we just continue to improve on the current fuels and drive train technology that has powered us the past 70 or more years? Do we need to move to more exotic energy conversion technology (fuel cell vehicles?), or can improving fuel properties further allow us to continue using combustion engines to power our vehicles? What fuel properties can still be improved in gasoline and diesel? Besides removing sulfur, should there be less aromatics in fuels? Should aromatics be eliminated? Is there a role for oxygenates in gasoline and diesel? Do blending oxygenates in fuels help or hinder in achieving the environmental goals? Can we and should we reduce our dependency on crude oil for transportation energy? Why have not the previous government-sponsored Alternative Fuel programs displaced crude oil? The marketplace will determine which fuel and vehicle technology combination will eventually be used in the future. Does the information we know today give us insight to this future? This paper will attempt to address some of the key issues and questions on the role fuels may play in that marketplace decision

Can conservation funding be left to carbon finance? Evidence from participatory future land use scenarios in Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Ravikumar, Ashwin; Larjavaara, Markku; Larson, Anne; Kanninen, Markku

2017-01-01

Revenues derived from carbon have been seen as an important tool for supporting forest conservation over the past decade. At the same time, there is high uncertainty about how much revenue can reasonably be expected from land use emissions reductions initiatives. Despite this uncertainty, REDD+ projects and conservation initiatives that aim to take advantage of available or, more commonly, future funding from carbon markets have proliferated. This study used participatory multi-stakeholder workshops to develop divergent future scenarios of land use in eight landscapes in four countries around the world: Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico. The results of these future scenario building exercises were analyzed using a new tool, CarboScen, for calculating the landscape carbon storage implications of different future land use scenarios. The findings suggest that potential revenues from carbon storage or emissions reductions are significant in some landscapes (most notably the peat forests of Indonesia), and much less significant in others (such as the low-carbon forests of Zanzibar and the interior of Tanzania). The findings call into question the practicality of many conservation programs that hinge on expectations of future revenue from carbon finance. The future scenarios-based approach is useful to policy-makers and conservation program developers in distinguishing between landscapes where carbon finance can substantially support conservation, and landscapes where other strategies for conservation and land use should be prioritized.

The Influence of Urban Land-Use and Public Transport Facilities on Active Commuting in Wellington, New Zealand: Active Transport Forecasting Using the WILUTE Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joreintje Dingena Mackenbach

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Physical activity has numerous physical and mental health benefits, and active commuting (walking or cycling to work can help meet physical activity recommendations. This study investigated socioeconomic differences in active commuting, and assessed the impact of urban land-use and public transport policies on active commuting in the Wellington region in New Zealand. We combined data from the New Zealand Household Travel Survey and GIS data on land-use and public transport facilities with the Wellington Integrated Land-Use, Transportation and Environment (WILUTE model, and forecasted changes in active commuter trips associated with changes in the built environment. Results indicated high income individuals were more likely to commute actively than individuals on low income. Several land-use and transportation factors were associated with active commuting and results from the modelling showed a potential increase in active commuting following an increase in bus frequency and parking fees. In conclusion, regional level policies stimulating environmental factors that directly or indirectly affect active commuting may be a promising strategy to increase population level physical activity. Access to, and frequency of, public transport in the neighbourhood can act as a facilitator for a more active lifestyle among its residents without negatively affecting disadvantaged groups.

Tourism's impact on future transportation needs

Science.gov (United States)

2002-02-01

This report focuses on the changes evolving in the tourist industry and their impact on future transportation needs. First, the report concentrates on the changing of the demographic guard--from Baby Boomers to Generation Xers, and finally, to the en...

Effects of future climate and land use scenarios on riverine source water quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Delpla, Ianis; Rodriguez, Manuel J

2014-09-15

Surface water quality is particularly sensitive to land use practices and climatic events that affect its catchment. The relative influence of a set of watershed characteristics (climate, land use, morphology and pedology) and climatic variables on two key water quality parameters (turbidity and fecal coliforms (FC)) was examined in 24 eastern Canadian catchments at various spatial scales (1 km, 5 km, 10 km and the entire catchment). A regression analysis revealed that the entire catchment was a better predictor of water quality. Based on this information, linear mixed effect models for predicting turbidity and FC levels were developed. A set of land use and climate scenarios was considered and applied within the water quality models. Four land use scenarios (no change, same rate of variation, optimistic and pessimistic) and three climate change scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) were tested and variations for the near future (2025) were assessed and compared to the reference period (2000). Climate change impacts on water quality remained low annually for this time horizon (turbidity: +1.5%, FC: +1.6%, A2 scenario). On the other hand, the influence of land use changes appeared to predominate. Significant benefits for both parameters could be expected following the optimistic scenario (turbidity: -16.4%, FC: -6.3%; p climate change impacts could become equivalent to those modeled for land use for this horizon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

2012-08-01

The prospective future adoption of hydrogen to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question whether the adoption would have adverse effects on stratospheric ozone. The possibility of these undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART chemical transport model. Since future growth is highly uncertain we evaluate the impact for two world evolution scenarios, one based on a high emitting scenario (IPCC A1FI) and the other on a low emitting scenario (IPCC B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario the world evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the same world evolution scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall between the above two bounding scenarios. However, the magnitude of these changes is

LandSat-Based Land Use-Land Cover (Vector)

Data.gov (United States)

Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — Vector-based land cover data set derived from classified 30 meter resolution Thematic Mapper satellite imagery. Classification is divided into 16 classes with source...

LandSat-Based Land Use-Land Cover (Raster)

Data.gov (United States)

Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — Raster-based land cover data set derived from 30 meter resolution Thematic Mapper satellite imagery. Classification is divided into 16 classes with source imagery...

'Underutilised' agricultural land: its definitions, potential use for future biomass production and its environmental implications

Science.gov (United States)

Miyake, Saori; Bargiel, Damian

2017-04-01

A growing bioeconomy and increased demand for biomass products on food, health, fibre, industrial products and energy require land resources for feedstock production. It has resulted in significant environmental and socio-economic challenges on a global scale. As a result, consideration of such effects of land use change (LUC) from biomass production (particularly for biofuel feedstock) has emerged as an important area of policy and research, and several potential solutions have been proposed to minimise such adverse LUC effects. One of these solutions is the use of lands that are not in production or not suitable for food crop production, such as 'marginal', 'degraded', 'abandoned' and 'surplus' agricultural lands for future biomass production. The terms referring to these lands are usually associated with the potential production of 'marginal crops', which can grow in marginal conditions (e.g. poor soil fertility, low rainfall, drought) without much water and agrochemical inputs. In our research, we referred to these lands as 'underutilised' agricultural land and attempted to define them for our case study areas located in Australia and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our goal is to identify lands that can be used for future biomass production and to evaluate their environmental implications, particularly impacts related to biodiversity, water and soil at a landscape scale. The identification of these lands incorporates remote sensing and spatially explicit approaches. Our findings confirmed that there was no universal or single definition of the term 'underutilised' agricultural land as the definitions significantly vary by country and region depending not only on the biophysical environment but also political, institutional and socio-economic conditions. Moreover, our results highlighted that the environmental implications of production of biomass on 'underutilised' agricultural land for biomass production are highly controversial. Thus land use change

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

Science.gov (United States)

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth throug...

Transport and energy policy. Looking to the future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aaltonen, T [European Commission (Belgium)

1996-12-01

In the quest of filling human needs, transport and energy do not appear to be the most exciting territories. They come in only later in the vast chain of commodities and services necessary in the smooth operation of a modern market economy. However, current concerns about pollution and the future of our planet have lifted these issues to the top of the agenda. The objective of this paper is to give a glance at the complexity of possible futures facing us. Indeed, one of the main objectives is to show that there are different paths to be taken and we can influence our future. Furthermore, it will be shown that a key element in planning for different futures is the proper choice of energy policy objectives and instruments. An even bigger impact could be expected from the changing paradigms in transport demand patterns. (au)

Combining emperical and theory-based land use modelling approaches to assess future availability of land and economic potential for sustainable biofuel production: Argentina as a case study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Diogo, V.; van der Hilst, Floortje; van Eijck, Janske; Faaij, André; Verstegen, Judith; Hilbert, J.; Carballo, S.; Volante, J.

2014-01-01

In this paper, a land-use modelling framework is presented combining empirical and theory-based modelling approaches to determine economic potential of biofuel production avoiding indirect land-use changes (iLUC) resulting from land competition with other functions. The empirical approach explores

Watershed Analysis of Nitrate Transport as a Result of Agricultural Inputs for Varying Land Use/Land Cover and Soil Type

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, M. E.; Sykes, J. F.

2006-12-01

The Grand River Watershed is one of the largest watersheds in southwestern Ontario with an area of approximately 7000 square kilometers. Ninety percent of the watershed is classified as rural, and 80 percent of the watershed population relies on groundwater as their source of drinking water. Management of the watershed requires the determination of the effect of agricultural practices on long-term groundwater quality and to identify locations within the watershed that are at a higher risk of contamination. The study focuses on the transport of nitrate through the root zone as a result of agricultural inputs with attenuation due to biodegradation. The driving force for transport is spatially and temporally varying groundwater recharge that is a function of land use/land cover, soil and meteorological inputs that yields 47,229 unique soil columns within the watershed. Fertilizer sources are determined from Statistics Canada's Agricultural Census and include livestock manure and a popular commercial fertilizer, urea. Accounting for different application rates yields 60,066 unique land parcels of which 22,809 are classified as croplands where manure and inorganic fertilizes are directly applied. The transport for the croplands is simulated over a 14-year period to investigate the impact of seasonal applications of nitrate fertilizers on the concentration leaching from the root zone to the water table. Based on land use/land cover maps, ArcView GIS is used to define the location of fertilizer applications within the watershed and to spatially visualize data and analyze results. The large quantity of input data is stored and managed using MS-Access and a relational database management system. Nitrogen transformations and ammonium and nitrate uptake by plants and transport through the soil column are simulated on a daily basis using Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) within MS-Access modules. Nitrogen transformations within the soil column were simplified using

Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Limanond, Thirayoot; Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj; Srikaew, Artit

2011-01-01

The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: → Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. → The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. → The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Limanond, Thirayoot, E-mail: tlimanond@yahoo.co [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Srikaew, Artit [School of Electrical Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand)

2011-05-15

The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: {yields} Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. {yields} The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. {yields} The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

Study on the Relationship between Land Transport and Economic Growth in Xinjiang

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingxin Sun

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Xinjiang’s land transport network is mainly comprised of highways and railways. Using statistical data from 1985 to 2015, this study applies the Lotka-Volterra model to investigate the competitive interactions among highway transport, railway transport, and the regional economy of Xinjiang. We can draw the following conclusions: First, highway mileage, highway passenger transportation, and railway freight transportation have played a significant role in promoting the development of the national economy in Xinjiang, while the latter has weakened highway passenger transportation and promoted the growth of the added value of transportation industry (AVTI, railway mileage, and railway passenger transportation. Second, highway passenger transportation enhances the development of railway passenger transportation, while railway freight transportation has played the same role in the development of highway freight transportation. Third, the increase in AVTI will increase total population, but both may have a negative impact on the national economy in the short term. Fourth, there is no significant relationship between the economy and transportation investment.

Measuring the impact of urban policies on transportation energy saving using a land use-transport model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masanobu Kii

2014-03-01

This study demonstrates the applicability of a land-use transport model to the assessment of urban policies for building smart communities. First, we outline a model that explicitly formulates the actors' location-related decisions and travel behavior. Second, we apply this model to two urban policies – road pricing and land-use regulation – to assess their long-term impact on energy saving and sustainability using the case of a simplified synthetic city. Our study verifies that, under assumed conditions, the model has the capacity to assess urban policies on energy use and sustainability in a consistent fashion.

Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

2010-01-01

Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

Transformative optimisation of agricultural land use to meet future food demands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lian Pin Koh

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The human population is expected to reach ∼9 billion by 2050. The ensuing demands for water, food and energy would intensify land-use conflicts and exacerbate environmental impacts. Therefore we urgently need to reconcile our growing consumptive needs with environmental protection. Here, we explore the potential of a land-use optimisation strategy to increase global agricultural production on two major groups of crops: cereals and oilseeds. We implemented a spatially-explicit computer simulation model across 173 countries based on the following algorithm: on any cropland, always produce the most productive crop given all other crops currently being produced locally and the site-specific biophysical, economic and technological constraints to production. Globally, this strategy resulted in net increases in annual production of cereal and oilseed crops from 1.9 billion to 2.9 billion tons (46%, and from 427 million to 481 million tons (13%, respectively, without any change in total land area harvested for cereals or oilseeds. This thought experiment demonstrates that, in theory, more optimal use of existing farmlands could help meet future crop demands. In practice there might be cultural, social and institutional barriers that limit the full realisation of this theoretical potential. Nevertheless, these constraints have to be weighed against the consequences of not producing enough food, particularly in regions already facing food shortages.

Climate change effects on central New Mexico's land use, transportation system and key natural resources : task 1.1 memo.

Science.gov (United States)

2014-12-01

This report summarizes potential climate change effects on the availability of water, land use, transportation infrastructure, and key natural resources in central New Mexico. This work is being done as part of the Interagency Transportation, Land Us...

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

A zone-based approach to identifying urban land uses using nationally-available data

Science.gov (United States)

Falcone, James A.

city of Boston. A generalized version of the method (six land use classes) was also developed and cross-validated among additional geographic settings: Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Providence. The results suggest that even with the thematically-detailed ten-class structure, it is feasible to map most urban land uses with reasonable accuracy at the block group scale, and results improve with class aggregation. When classified by predicted majority land use, 79% of block groups correctly matched the actual majority land use with the ten-class models. Six-class models typically performed well for the geographic area they were developed from, however models had mixed performance when transported to other geographic settings. Contextual variables, which characterized a block group's spatial relationship to city centers, transportation routes, and other amenities, were consistently strong predictors of most land uses, a result which corresponds to classic urban land use theory. The method and metrics derived here provide a prototype for mapping urban land uses from readily-available data over broader geographic areas than is generally practiced today using current image-based solutions.

Classification of Land Use on Sand-Dune Topography by Object-Based Analysis, Digital Photogrammetry, and GIS Analysis in the Horqin Sandy Land, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takafumi Miyasaka

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Previous field research on the Horqin Sandy Land (China, which has suffered from severe desertification during recent decades, revealed how land use on a sand-dune topography affects both land degradation and restoration. This study aimed to depict the spatial distribution of local land use in order to shed more light on previous field findings regarding policies on a broader scale. We performed the following analyses with Panchromatic Remote-sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping (PRISM and Advanced Visible and Near Infrared Radiometer type 2 (AVNIR-2 images of Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS: (1 object-based classification to discriminate preliminary classification of land-use types that were approximately differentiated by ordinary pixel-based analysis with spectral information; (2 digital photogrammetry to generate a digital surface model (DSM with adequately high accuracy to represent undulating sand-dune topography; (3 geographic information system (GIS analysis to classify major topographic types with the digital surface model (DSM; and (4 overlay of the two classification results to depict the local land-use types. The overall accuracies of the object-based and GIS-based classifications were high, at 93% (kappa statistic: 0.84 and 89% (kappa statistic: 0.81, respectively. The resultant local land-use map represents areas covered in previous field studies, showing where and how land degradation and restoration are likely to occur. This research can contribute to future environmental surveys, models, and policies in the study area.

Land-based approach to evaluate sustainable land management and adaptive capacity of ecosystems/lands

Science.gov (United States)

Kust, German; Andreeva, Olga

2015-04-01

A number of new concepts and paradigms appeared during last decades, such as sustainable land management (SLM), climate change (CC) adaptation, environmental services, ecosystem health, and others. All of these initiatives still not having the common scientific platform although some agreements in terminology were reached, schemes of links and feedback loops created, and some models developed. Nevertheless, in spite of all these scientific achievements, the land related issues are still not in the focus of CC adaptation and mitigation. The last did not grow much beyond the "greenhouse gases" (GHG) concept, which makes land degradation as the "forgotten side of climate change" The possible decision to integrate concepts of climate and desertification/land degradation could be consideration of the "GHG" approach providing global solution, and "land" approach providing local solution covering other "locally manifesting" issues of global importance (biodiversity conservation, food security, disasters and risks, etc.) to serve as a central concept among those. SLM concept is a land-based approach, which includes the concepts of both ecosystem-based approach (EbA) and community-based approach (CbA). SLM can serve as in integral CC adaptation strategy, being based on the statement "the more healthy and resilient the system is, the less vulnerable and more adaptive it will be to any external changes and forces, including climate" The biggest scientific issue is the methods to evaluate the SLM and results of the SLM investments. We suggest using the approach based on the understanding of the balance or equilibrium of the land and nature components as the major sign of the sustainable system. Prom this point of view it is easier to understand the state of the ecosystem stress, size of the "health", range of adaptive capacity, drivers of degradation and SLM nature, as well as the extended land use, and the concept of environmental land management as the improved SLM approach

Classification of Land Cover and Land Use Based on Convolutional Neural Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Chun; Rottensteiner, Franz; Heipke, Christian

2018-04-01

Land cover describes the physical material of the earth's surface, whereas land use describes the socio-economic function of a piece of land. Land use information is typically collected in geospatial databases. As such databases become outdated quickly, an automatic update process is required. This paper presents a new approach to determine land cover and to classify land use objects based on convolutional neural networks (CNN). The input data are aerial images and derived data such as digital surface models. Firstly, we apply a CNN to determine the land cover for each pixel of the input image. We compare different CNN structures, all of them based on an encoder-decoder structure for obtaining dense class predictions. Secondly, we propose a new CNN-based methodology for the prediction of the land use label of objects from a geospatial database. In this context, we present a strategy for generating image patches of identical size from the input data, which are classified by a CNN. Again, we compare different CNN architectures. Our experiments show that an overall accuracy of up to 85.7 % and 77.4 % can be achieved for land cover and land use, respectively. The classification of land cover has a positive contribution to the classification of the land use classification.

Accessibility measures: review and applications. Evaluation of accessibility impacts of land-use transportation scenarios, and related social and economic impact

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Geurs KT; Ritsema van Eck JR; Universiteit Utrecht-URU; LAE

2001-01-01

This report describes an extensive literature study and three case studies aimed at reviewing accessibility measures for their ability to evaluate the accessibility impacts of national land-use and transport scenarios, and related social and economic impacts. Several activity- and utility-based

Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

Science.gov (United States)

Villarreal, Miguel; Labiosa, Bill; Aiello, Danielle

2017-05-23

The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

Integrated Land-Water-Energy assessment using the Foreseer Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Allwood, Julian; Konadu, Dennis; Mourao, Zenaida; Lupton, Rick; Richards, Keith; Fenner, Richard; Skelton, Sandy; McMahon, Richard

2016-04-01

This study presents an integrated energy and resource modelling and visualisation approach, ForeseerTM, which characterises the interdependencies and evaluates the land and water requirement for energy system pathways. The Foreseer Tool maps linked energy, water and land resource futures by outputting a set of Sankey diagrams for energy, water and land, showing the flow from basic resource (e.g. coal, surface water, and forested land) through transformations (e.g. fuel refining and desalination) to final services (e.g. sustenance, hygiene and transportation). By 'mapping' resources in this way, policy-makers can more easily understand the competing uses through the identification of the services it delivers (e.g. food production, landscaping, energy), the potential opportunities for improving the management of the resource and the connections with other resources which are often overlooked in a traditional sector-based management strategy. This paper will present a case study of the UK Carbon Plan, and highlights the need for integrated resource planning and policy development.

Decision analysis and risk models for land development affecting infrastructure systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Thekdi, Shital A; Lambert, James H

2012-07-01

Coordination and layering of models to identify risks in complex systems such as large-scale infrastructure of energy, water, and transportation is of current interest across application domains. Such infrastructures are increasingly vulnerable to adjacent commercial and residential land development. Land development can compromise the performance of essential infrastructure systems and increase the costs of maintaining or increasing performance. A risk-informed approach to this topic would be useful to avoid surprise, regret, and the need for costly remedies. This article develops a layering and coordination of models for risk management of land development affecting infrastructure systems. The layers are: system identification, expert elicitation, predictive modeling, comparison of investment alternatives, and implications of current decisions for future options. The modeling layers share a focus on observable factors that most contribute to volatility of land development and land use. The relevant data and expert evidence include current and forecasted growth in population and employment, conservation and preservation rules, land topography and geometries, real estate assessments, market and economic conditions, and other factors. The approach integrates to a decision framework of strategic considerations based on assessing risk, cost, and opportunity in order to prioritize needs and potential remedies that mitigate impacts of land development to the infrastructure systems. The approach is demonstrated for a 5,700-mile multimodal transportation system adjacent to 60,000 tracts of potential land development. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

CARONTE project: Creating an Agenda for Research on Transportation Security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leon Bello, J.; Gonzalez Viosca, E.

2016-07-01

Europe’s prosperity relies on effective transport systems. Any attacks and disturbances to land freight and passenger transport would have significant impact on economic growth, territorial cohesion, social development and the environment. Unfortunately, there are weaknesses in the land transport security.The objective of CARONTE project is define a future research agenda for security in land transport that focuses on core gaps caused by emerging risks while avoiding any doubling-up of research elsewhere. Its research agenda will cover all threats, including cyber-crime, and security aspects across all modes of land transportation. At the same time, it will respect the fundamental human rights and privacy of European citizens. The step-by-step method of CARONTE’s consortium has analyzed the state of the art and emerging risks; has identified gaps, analyses and assessments of potential solutions; and has produced an overall research agenda for the future. CARONTE’s results will answer the following questions among others: Which existing research projects merit a follow up and extension? Where are the combinations or synergy effects to be attended? Which themes and topics should be elaborated in new research projects? Who should be involved and integrated in future research projects (stakeholders, authorities, etc.)? The CARONTE consortium includes universities and research institutes, companies, and end-users providing with experience in research and consultancy in transportation, logistics, infrastructure management, security and communications. ITENE - Instituto Tecnológico del Embalaje, Transporte y Logística-has been one of the Project partners among a total of 11 members from eight different countries in the European Union which have also been supported via a High Level Advisory Board. (Author)

Modeling green infrastructure land use changes on future air ...

Science.gov (United States)

Green infrastructure can be a cost-effective approach for reducing stormwater runoff and improving water quality as a result, but it could also bring co-benefits for air quality: less impervious surfaces and more vegetation can decrease the urban heat island effect, and also result in more removal of air pollutants via dry deposition with increased vegetative surfaces. Cooler surface temperatures can also decrease ozone formation through the increases of NOx titration; however, cooler surface temperatures also lower the height of the boundary layer resulting in more concentrated pollutants within the same volume of air, especially for primary emitted pollutants (e.g. NOx, CO, primary particulate matter). To better understand how green infrastructure impacts air quality, the interactions between all of these processes must be considered collectively. In this study, we use a comprehensive coupled meteorology-air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) to simulate the influence of planned land use changes that include green infrastructure in Kansas City (KC) on regional meteorology and air quality. Current and future land use data was provided by the Mid-America Regional Council for 2012 and 2040 (projected land use due to population growth, city planning and green infrastructure implementation). These land use datasets were incorporated into the WRF-CMAQ modeling system allowing the modeling system to propagate the changes in vegetation and impervious surface coverage on meteoro

Object-based Dimensionality Reduction in Land Surface Phenology Classification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brian E. Bunker

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Unsupervised classification or clustering of multi-decadal land surface phenology provides a spatio-temporal synopsis of natural and agricultural vegetation response to environmental variability and anthropogenic activities. Notwithstanding the detailed temporal information available in calibrated bi-monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI and comparable time series, typical pre-classification workflows average a pixel’s bi-monthly index within the larger multi-decadal time series. While this process is one practical way to reduce the dimensionality of time series with many hundreds of image epochs, it effectively dampens temporal variation from both intra and inter-annual observations related to land surface phenology. Through a novel application of object-based segmentation aimed at spatial (not temporal dimensionality reduction, all 294 image epochs from a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS bi-monthly NDVI time series covering the northern Fertile Crescent were retained (in homogenous landscape units as unsupervised classification inputs. Given the inherent challenges of in situ or manual image interpretation of land surface phenology classes, a cluster validation approach based on transformed divergence enabled comparison between traditional and novel techniques. Improved intra-annual contrast was clearly manifest in rain-fed agriculture and inter-annual trajectories showed increased cluster cohesion, reducing the overall number of classes identified in the Fertile Crescent study area from 24 to 10. Given careful segmentation parameters, this spatial dimensionality reduction technique augments the value of unsupervised learning to generate homogeneous land surface phenology units. By combining recent scalable computational approaches to image segmentation, future work can pursue new global land surface phenology products based on the high temporal resolution signatures of vegetation index time series.

Impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

2013-07-01

The prospective future adoption of molecular hydrogen (H2) to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question of whether the adoption would have adverse effects on the stratospheric ozone. The possibility of undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on the stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART (Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers) model. Since future growth is highly uncertain, we evaluate the impact of two world evolution scenarios, one based on an IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) high-emitting scenario (A1FI) and the other on an IPCC low-emitting scenario (B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the evolution growth scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall

Land Transport Emergency Response Technology Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DOTSON, LORI J.; PIERCE, JIM D.

2003-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories was tasked by the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (JNC) to provide assistance in developing an emergency response plan for radioactive material transportation activities. Those tasks included compiling radioactive materials (RAM) transportation accident data FR-om the open literature and databases, investigating emergency response plans for radioactive materials transport in the United States, and developing specific recommendations for the JNC' nuclear material transport emergency response plan, based on information gathered during the first two tasks. These recommendations include developing a RAM database, a public transparency Internet website, an emergency response inFR-astructure designed specifically for transportation needs, and a clear set of directives to provide authority in the case of transportation accidents or incidents involving RAM

Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: an evaluation of two land-use change models.

Science.gov (United States)

Claggett, Peter R; Jantz, Claire A; Goetz, Scott J; Bisland, Carin

2004-06-01

Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations.

Impact of a future H2 transportation on atmospheric pollution in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Popa, M. E.; Segers, A. J.; Denier van der Gon, H. A C; Krol, M. C.; Visschedijk, A. J H; Schaap, M.; Röckmann, T.

2015-01-01

Hydrogen (H2) is being explored as a fuel for passenger vehicles; it can be used in fuel cells to power electric motors or burned in internal combustion engines. In order to evaluate the potential influence of a future H2-based road transportation on the regional air quality in Europe, we

The potential for western Canada to become a leader in electrically powered land transport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perl, A.; Gilbert, R. [Simon Fraser Univ., Burnaby, BC (Canada)

2010-07-01

Canada's western provinces are among the most oil-intensive jurisdictions in the world. Per capita consumption in 2007 was 70 percent higher than that of eastern Canada. While western Canada will be buffered as a producer of oil, predicted swings in oil prices may disrupt the fiscal capacity of producer provinces. The price of crude oil in western Canada is the same price established in world markets. This paper examined some of the opportunities available for western Canada to move away from oil consumption by becoming a leader in electric traction. Methods of replacing oil-based transportation with the use of electric vehicles were discussed. Western Canada's capacity to produce electricity from renewable resources was evaluated. Economic opportunities related to the electrification of land transport were also examined. The report concluded by stating that a clear vision and policy framework for supporting new technologies for surface transport across western Canada are needed. 72 refs., 4 figs.

The potential for western Canada to become a leader in electrically powered land transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perl, A.; Gilbert, R.

2010-01-01

Canada's western provinces are among the most oil-intensive jurisdictions in the world. Per capita consumption in 2007 was 70 percent higher than that of eastern Canada. While western Canada will be buffered as a producer of oil, predicted swings in oil prices may disrupt the fiscal capacity of producer provinces. The price of crude oil in western Canada is the same price established in world markets. This paper examined some of the opportunities available for western Canada to move away from oil consumption by becoming a leader in electric traction. Methods of replacing oil-based transportation with the use of electric vehicles were discussed. Western Canada's capacity to produce electricity from renewable resources was evaluated. Economic opportunities related to the electrification of land transport were also examined. The report concluded by stating that a clear vision and policy framework for supporting new technologies for surface transport across western Canada are needed. 72 refs., 4 figs.

A multidimensonal Examination of Prefomences of the Future advanced Transport Systems: The ETT (Evacuated Tube Transport) TRM (Transrapid MAGLEV) System

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janic, M.

2016-01-01

Multidimensional examination of performances of the future advanced ETT Evacuated Tube Transport) system operated by TRM (TransRapidMaglev); assessment of the ETT TRM system contribution to sustainability of the future transport sector through its completion with APT (Air Passenger Transport) system

Quantification of soil erosion and transport processes in the in the Myjava Hill Land

Science.gov (United States)

Hlavcová, Kamila; Kohnová, Silvia; Velisková, Yvetta; Studvová, Zuzana; Socuvka, Valentin; Németová, Zuzana; Duregová, Maria

2017-04-01

The aim of the study is a complex analysis of soil erosion processes and proposals for erosion control in the region of the Myjava Hill Land located in western Slovakia. The Myjava Hill Land is characteristic of quick runoff response, intensive soil erosion by water and related muddy floods, which are determined by both natural and socio-economic conditions. In this paper a case study in the Svacenický Creek catchment, with a focus on the quantification of soil loss from the agriculturally arable lands and sediment transport to the dry water reservoir (polder) of the Svacenický Creek is presented. Erosion, sediment transport, and the deposition of sediments in the water reservoir represent a significant impact on its operation, mainly with regard to reducing its accumulation volume. For the analysis of the soil loss and sediment transport from the Svacenický Creek catchment, the Universal Soil Loss Equation, the USLE 2D, and the Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) models were applied. Because the resulting values of the soil loss exceeded the values of the tolerated soil loss, erosion control measures by strip cropping were designed. Strip cropping is based on altering crop strips with protective (infiltration) strips. The effectiveness of the protective (infiltration) strips for reducing runoff from the basin by the SCS-CN method was estimated. Monitoring the morphological parameters of bottom sediments and their changes over time is crucial information in the field of water reservoir operations. In September 2015, the AUV EcoMapper was used to gather the data information on the Svacenický Creek reservoir. The data includes information about the sediment depths and parameters of the water quality. The results of the surveying are GIS datasets and maps, which provide a higher resolution of the bathymetric data and contours of the bottom reservoir. To display the relief of the bottom, the ArcMap 10.1. software was used. Based on the current status of the bottom

Futures Analysis of Urban Land Use and Wetland Change in Saskatoon, Canada: An Application in Strategic Environmental Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anton Sizo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a scenario-based approach to strategic environmental assessment (SEA for wetland trend analysis and land use and land cover (LUC modeling in an urban environment. The application is focused on the Saskatoon urban environment, a rapidly growing urban municipality in Canada’s prairie pothole region. Alternative future LUC was simulated using remote sensing data and city spatial planning documentation using a Markov Chain technique. Two alternatives were developed and compared for LUC change and threats to urban wetland sustainability: a zero alternative that simulated trends in urban development and wetland conservation under a business as usual scenario, in the absence of prescribed planning and zoning actions; and an alternative focused on implementation of current urban development plans, which simulated future LUC to account for prescribed wetland conservation strategies. Results show no improvement in future wetland conditions under the city’s planned growth and wetland conservation scenario versus the business as usual scenario. Results also indicate that a blanket wetland conservation strategy for the city may not be sufficient to overcome the historic trend of urban wetland loss; and that spatially distributed conservation rates, based on individual wetland water catchment LUC peculiarities, may be more effective in terms of wetland conservation. The paper also demonstrates the challenges to applied SEA in a rapidly changing urban planning context, where data are often sparse and inconsistent across the urban region, and provides potential solutions through LUC classification and prediction tools to help overcome data limitations to support land use planning decisions for wetland conservation.

BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

2014-12-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

The Integration of Sustainable Transport into Future Renewable Energy Systems in China

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Wen

use are largely lost in the current fossil fuel dominated energy systems. Sustainable transport development requires solutions from an overall renewable energy system in which integration of large-scale intermittent renewable energy needs assistance. Technologies of alternative vehicle fuels...... in transport may play a role in furthering such integration. The objective of this research is to make a contribution to the development of methodologies to identify and develop future sustainable transport systems as well as to apply such methodologies to the case of China. In particular, the methodological...... development focuses on 1) identifying suitable transport technologies and strategies based on renewable energy and 2) evaluating such technologies from the perspective of overall renewable energy system integration. For this purpose, a methodological framework involving the research fields of both...

A framework for the exergy analysis of future transport pathways: Application for the United Kingdom transport system 2010–2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byers, Edward A.; Gasparatos, Alexandros; Serrenho, André C.

2015-01-01

Exergy analysis has been used to quantify the historical resource use efficiency and environmental impact of transport systems. However, few exergy studies have explored future transport pathways. This study aims to, (a) develop a conceptual framework for the exergy analysis of multiple future transport and electricity pathways, (b) apply this framework to quantify future resource consumption and service delivery patterns, (c) discuss the policy-relevant results that exergy studies of future transport systems can offer. Multiple transport and electricity pathways developed by the UK Government are used to explore changes in energy use, useful work delivery and greenhouse gas emissions. In passenger transport, ambitious electrification results in a 20% increase of useful work delivery, whilst reducing GHG emissions and energy consumption by 65%. For freight, international shipping and aviation, smaller exergy efficiency improvements make useful work delivery and greenhouse gas emissions highly dependent on transport demand. Passenger transport electrification brings a step-change in useful work delivery, which if accompanied by low-carbon electricity, significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissions. The efficiency of low-carbon electricity systems is significant for useful work delivery, but not dominant across the scenarios explored. High penetration of renewables and electrified transport is the most resource-efficient combination in this context. - Highlights: • Develop an exergy analysis framework of future transport pathways and apply it to UK. • Electrification of personal transport brings step change in useful work delivery. • Efficiency of electricity supply becomes significant once transport is electrified. • High electrification increases useful work (+20%) and reduces emissions (−65%). • High penetration of renewables and electrified transport is most resource efficient

Energy transport corridors: the potential role of Federal lands in states identified by the Energy Policy Act of 2005, section 368(b).

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krummel, J.; Hlohowskyj, I.; Kuiper, J.; Kolpa, R.; Moore, R.; May, J.; VanKuiken, J.C.; Kavicky, J.A.; McLamore, M.R.; Shamsuddin, S. (Decision and Information Sciences); ( EVS)

2011-09-01

transportation corridors in the 11 western states, Section 368(b) directs the Agencies to first identify corridors and then schedule prompt action to identify, designate, and incorporate the corridors into applicable land use plans. To comply with the congressional direction provided in Section 368(b), the Agencies investigated corridor identification issues in the Section 368(b) states; this report to Congress provides information that could be relevant to possible future designation of energy corridors. Future designations, if appropriate and necessary, would occur when the Agencies undertake revisions and/or updates to land use plans that guide management decisions on lands located within individual administrative units, such as specific National Forests, National Parks, or Wildlife Refuges. At this time, the Agencies are not proposing any actions or decisions related directly or indirectly to designating energy corridors on federal land under Section 368(b) of EPAct.

Impact assessment of the carbon reduction strategy for transport, low carbon transport : a greener future

Science.gov (United States)

2009-07-01

This is an impact assessment for the Carbon Reduction Strategy for Transport (DfT, 2009), Low Carbon Transport: A Greener Future, which is part of the UK Governments wider UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (DECC, 2009), Britains path to ta...

Measuring land use performance: policy, plan, and outcome : a white paper from the National Center for Sustainable Transportation.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-10-01

The impact of land use patterns on travel behavior is well established in the scholarly literature. : In particular, much research in the transportation-land use domain has measured the impact of : land use on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) or on trave...

Autonomous Landing and Ingress of Micro-Air-Vehicles in Urban Environments Based on Monocular Vision

Science.gov (United States)

Brockers, Roland; Bouffard, Patrick; Ma, Jeremy; Matthies, Larry; Tomlin, Claire

2011-01-01

Unmanned micro air vehicles (MAVs) will play an important role in future reconnaissance and search and rescue applications. In order to conduct persistent surveillance and to conserve energy, MAVs need the ability to land, and they need the ability to enter (ingress) buildings and other structures to conduct reconnaissance. To be safe and practical under a wide range of environmental conditions, landing and ingress maneuvers must be autonomous, using real-time, onboard sensor feedback. To address these key behaviors, we present a novel method for vision-based autonomous MAV landing and ingress using a single camera for two urban scenarios: landing on an elevated surface, representative of a rooftop, and ingress through a rectangular opening, representative of a door or window. Real-world scenarios will not include special navigation markers, so we rely on tracking arbitrary scene features; however, we do currently exploit planarity of the scene. Our vision system uses a planar homography decomposition to detect navigation targets and to produce approach waypoints as inputs to the vehicle control algorithm. Scene perception, planning, and control run onboard in real-time; at present we obtain aircraft position knowledge from an external motion capture system, but we expect to replace this in the near future with a fully self-contained, onboard, vision-aided state estimation algorithm. We demonstrate autonomous vision-based landing and ingress target detection with two different quadrotor MAV platforms. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of onboard, vision-based autonomous landing and ingress algorithms that do not use special purpose scene markers to identify the destination.

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France.

Science.gov (United States)

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J J; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A

2016-11-03

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO 2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils.

Historical and future perspectives of global soil carbon response to climate and land-use changes

Science.gov (United States)

Eglin, T.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S. L.; Barre, P.; Bellassen, V.; Cadule, P.; Chenu, C.; Gasser, T.; Koven, C.; Reichstein, M.; Smith, P.

2010-11-01

ABSTRACT In this paper, we attempt to analyse the respective influences of land-use and climate changes on the global and regional balances of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Two time periods are analysed: the historical period 1901-2000 and the period 2000-2100. The historical period is analysed using a synthesis of published data as well as new global and regional model simulations, and the future is analysed using models only. Historical land cover changes have resulted globally in SOC release into the atmosphere. This human induced SOC decrease was nearly balanced by the net SOC increase due to higher CO2 and rainfall. Mechanization of agriculture after the 1950s has accelerated SOC losses in croplands, whereas development of carbon-sequestering practices over the past decades may have limited SOC loss from arable soils. In some regions (Europe, China and USA), croplands are currently estimated to be either a small C sink or a small source, but not a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. In the future, according to terrestrial biosphere and climate models projections, both climate and land cover changes might cause a net SOC loss, particularly in tropical regions. The timing, magnitude, and regional distribution of future SOC changes are all highly uncertain. Reducing this uncertainty requires improving future anthropogenic CO2 emissions and land-use scenarios and better understanding of biogeochemical processes that control SOC turnover, for both managed and un-managed ecosystems.

Land-use change arising from rural land exchange : an agent-based simulation model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, Martha M.; Alam, Shah Jamal; van Dijk, Jerry|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/29612642X; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

Land exchange can be a major factor driving land-use change in regions with high pressure on land, but is generally not incorporated in land-use change models. Here we present an agent-based model to simulate land-use change arising from land exchange between multiple agent types representing

Land use change modeling through scenario-based cellular automata Markov: improving spatial forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Jahanishakib, Fatemeh; Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Poodat, Fatemeh

2018-05-08

Efficient land use management requires awareness of past changes, present actions, and plans for future developments. Part of these requirements is achieved using scenarios that describe a future situation and the course of changes. This research aims to link scenario results with spatially explicit and quantitative forecasting of land use development. To develop land use scenarios, SMIC PROB-EXPERT and MORPHOL methods were used. It revealed eight scenarios as the most probable. To apply the scenarios, we considered population growth rate and used a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) model to implement the quantified changes described by each scenario. For each scenario, a set of landscape metrics was used to assess the ecological integrity of land use classes in terms of fragmentation and structural connectivity. The approach enabled us to develop spatial scenarios of land use change and detect their differences for choosing the most integrated landscape pattern in terms of landscape metrics. Finally, the comparison between paired forecasted scenarios based on landscape metrics indicates that scenarios 1-1, 2-2, 3-2, and 4-1 have a more suitable integrity. The proposed methodology for developing spatial scenarios helps executive managers to create scenarios with many repetitions and customize spatial patterns in real world applications and policies.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future risk in Amazon forests

OpenAIRE

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Pereira, José Miguel Cardoso; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

2017-01-01

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest’s future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climatedriven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and ...

Ecosystem service impacts of future changes in CO2, climate, and land use as simulated by a coupled vegetation/land-use model system

Science.gov (United States)

Rabin, S. S.; Alexander, P.; Henry, R.; Anthoni, P.; Pugh, T.; Rounsevell, M.; Arneth, A.

2017-12-01

In a future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, changing climate, increasing human populations, and changing socioeconomic dynamics, the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. Global modeling can help to explore what these adaptations will look like, and their potential impacts on ecosystem services. To do so, however, the complex interconnections among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and society mean that these various parts of the Earth system must be examined as an interconnected whole. With the goal of answering these questions, a model system has been developed that couples a biologically-representative global vegetation model, LPJ-GUESS, with the PLUMv2 land use model. LPJ-GUESS first simulates—at 0.5º resolution across the world—the potential yield of various crops and pasture under a range of management intensities for a time step given its atmospheric CO2 level and climatic forcings. These potential yield simulations are fed into PLUMv2, which uses them in conjunction with endogenous agricultural commodity demand and prices to produce land use and management inputs (fertilizer and irrigation water) at a sub-national level for the next time step. This process is performed through 2100 for a range of future climate and societal scenarios—the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), respectively—providing a thorough exploration of possible trajectories of land use and land cover change. The land use projections produced by PLUMv2 are fed back into LPJ-GUESS to simulate the future impacts of land use change, along with increasing CO2 and climate change, on terrestrial ecosystems. This integrated analysis examines the resulting impacts on regulating and provisioning ecosystem services affecting biophysics (albedo); carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling; and the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs).

Simulating Transport and Land Use Interdependencies for Strategic Urban Planning—An Agent Based Modelling Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nam Huynh

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Agent based modelling has been widely accepted as a promising tool for urban planning purposes thanks to its capability to provide sophisticated insights into the social behaviours and the interdependencies that characterise urban systems. In this paper, we report on an agent based model, called TransMob, which explicitly simulates the mutual dynamics between demographic evolution, transport demands, housing needs and the eventual change in the average satisfaction of the residents of an urban area. The ability to reproduce such dynamics is a unique feature that has not been found in many of the like agent based models in the literature. TransMob, is constituted by six major modules: synthetic population, perceived liveability, travel diary assignment, traffic micro-simulator, residential location choice, and travel mode choice. TransMob is used to simulate the dynamics of a metropolitan area in South East of Sydney, Australia, in 2006 and 2011, with demographic evolution. The results are favourably compared against survey data for the area in 2011, therefore validating the capability of TransMob to reproduce the observed complexity of an urban area. We also report on the application of TransMob to simulate various hypothetical scenarios of urban planning policies. We conclude with discussions on current limitations of TransMob, which serve as suggestions for future developments.

Properties Analysis on Travel Intensity of Land Use Patterns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lishan Sun

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Quantization of the relationship between travel intensity and land use patterns is still a critical problem in urban transportation planning. Achieved researches on land use patterns are restricted to macrodata such as population and area, which failed to provide detail travel information for transportation planners. There is still problem on how to reflect the relationship between transport and land use accurately. This paper presents a study that is reflective of such an effort. A data extraction method is developed to get the travel origin and destination (OD between traffic zones based on the mobile data of 100,000 residents in Beijing. Then Point of Interests (POIs data in typical traffic zones was analyzed combined with construction area investigation. Based on the analysis of travel OD and POI data, the average travel intensity of each land use pattern is quantified. Research results could provide a quantitative basis for the optimization of urban transportation planning.

Impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere – Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Wang

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The prospective future adoption of molecular hydrogen (H2 to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question of whether the adoption would have adverse effects on the stratospheric ozone. The possibility of undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050 H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on the stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART (Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers model. Since future growth is highly uncertain, we evaluate the impact of two world evolution scenarios, one based on an IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change high-emitting scenario (A1FI and the other on an IPCC low-emitting scenario (B1, as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the evolution growth scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two

Using GIS to integrate the analysis of land-use, transportation, and the environment for managing urban growth based on transit oriented development in the metropolitan of Jabodetabek, Indonesia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasibuan, H S; Moersidik, S; Koestoer, R; Soemardi, T P

2014-01-01

There is an interaction between land use, transportation, and environment in improving and managing urban quality. One of the concpets to integrate those three aspects is Transit Oriented Development (TOD). It is a concept for managing urban growth in transit corridors which have characteristics of mixed land use, compact, walkability, and development focused around public transit area. This research aims at utilizing GIS to organize, sort, and analyze spatial data including aspects of land use, transportation, and environment. Jabodetabek is a strategic metropolitan area in Indonesia, and consists of DKI Jakarta and the neighboring Bodetabek cities, with more than 27 million population in 2010. Approximately 1,105,000 people are entering Jakarta every workday from the negihboring Bodetabek region. The surge in the number of passenger cars and motorcycles is astonishing. In contrast, the usage of public transport has declined deeply. Public transport infrastructure development without the integration of TOD may not attain the objective of reducing car dependency. This paper discusses the study which was carried out to identify the applicability of TOD principles in Jabodetabek using GIS as a tool to analysis and create model

Modelling soil erosion at European scale: the importance of management practices and the future climate and land use scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Poesen, Jean; Lugato, Emanuele; Montanarella, Luca; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-04-01

The implementation of RUSLE2015 for modelling soil loss by water erosion at European scale has introduced important aspects related to management practices. The policy measurements such as reduced tillage, crop residues, cover crops, grass margins, stone walls and contouring have been incorporated in the RUSLE2015 modelling platform. The recent policy interventions introduced in Good Agricultural Environmental Conditions of Common Agricultural Policy have reduced the rate of soil loss in the EU by an average of 9.5% overall, and by 20% for arable lands (NATURE, 526, 195). However, further economic and political action should rebrand the value of soil as part of ecosystem services, increase the income of rural land owners, involve young farmers and organize regional services for licensing land use changes (Land Degradation and Development, 27 (6): 1547-1551). RUSLE2015 is combining the future policy scenarios and land use changes introduced by predictions of LUISA Territorial Modelling Platform. Latest developments in RUSLE2015 allow also incorporating the climate change scenarios and the forthcoming intensification of rainfall in North and Central Europe contrary to mixed trends in Mediterranean basin. The rainfall erosivity predictions estimate a mean increase by 18% in European Union by 2050. Recently, a module of CENTURY model was coupled with the RUSLE2015 for estimating the effect of erosion in current carbon balance in European agricultural lands (Global Change Biology, 22(5), 1976-1984; 2016). Finally, the monthly erosivity datasets (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315) introduce a dynamic component in RUSLE2015 and it is a step towards spatio-temporal soil erosion mapping at continental scale. The monthly mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should apply in different seasons of the year. In the future, the soil erosion-modelling platform will

Environment issues and the future of the transport industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shiller, J W [Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, MI (USA)

1992-01-01

The motor vehicle industry must make the necessary investment in products and technology to meet the competitive and environmental challenges of the future. Discussion is presented of: the history of motor vehicles, the relationship of motor vehicles to the environment, the state of climate change knowledge, future economic development and the transport sector, the changing structure of the motor vehicle fleet, traffic congestion, alternative fuels, investments in transport, the European Energy Charter, The US Energy Strategy, the North American free trade agreement, and the economics of the automobile industry in Japan/South East Asia and the developing countries. 61 refs., 29 figs., 28 tabs.

LAND USE/LAND COVER CHANGES IN SEMI-ARID MOUNTAIN LANDSCAPE IN SOUTHERN INDIA: A GEOINFORMATICS BASED MARKOV CHAIN APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Rahaman

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Nowadays land use/ land cover in mountain landscape is in critical condition; it leads to high risky and uncertain environments. These areas are facing multiple stresses including degradation of land resources; vagaries of climate and depletion of water resources continuously affect land use practices and livelihoods. To understand the Land use/Land cover (Lu/Lc changes in a semi-arid mountain landscape, Kallar watershed of Bhavani basin, in southern India has been chosen. Most of the hilly part in the study area covers with forest, plantation, orchards and vegetables and which are highly affected by severe soil erosion, landslide, frequent rainfall failures and associated drought. The foothill regions are mainly utilized for agriculture practices; due to water scarcity and meagre income, the productive agriculture lands are converted into settlement plots and wasteland. Hence, land use/land cover change deduction; a stochastic processed based method is indispensable for future prediction. For identification of land use/land cover, and vegetation changes, Landsat TM, ETM (1995, 2005 and IRS P6- LISS IV (2015 images were used. Through CAMarkov chain analysis, Lu/Lc changes in past three decades (1995, 2005, and 2015 were identified and projected for (2020 and 2025; Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI were used to find the vegetation changes. The result shows that, maximum changes occur in the plantation and slight changes found in forest cover in the hilly terrain. In foothill areas, agriculture lands were decreased while wastelands and settlement plots were increased. The outcome of the results helps to farmer and policy makers to draw optimal lands use planning and better management strategies for sustainable development of natural resources.

Land Use/land Cover Changes in Semi-Arid Mountain Landscape in Southern India: a Geoinformatics Based Markov Chain Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Rahaman, S. A.; Aruchamy, S.; Balasubramani, K.; Jegankumar, R.

2017-05-01

Nowadays land use/ land cover in mountain landscape is in critical condition; it leads to high risky and uncertain environments. These areas are facing multiple stresses including degradation of land resources; vagaries of climate and depletion of water resources continuously affect land use practices and livelihoods. To understand the Land use/Land cover (Lu/Lc) changes in a semi-arid mountain landscape, Kallar watershed of Bhavani basin, in southern India has been chosen. Most of the hilly part in the study area covers with forest, plantation, orchards and vegetables and which are highly affected by severe soil erosion, landslide, frequent rainfall failures and associated drought. The foothill regions are mainly utilized for agriculture practices; due to water scarcity and meagre income, the productive agriculture lands are converted into settlement plots and wasteland. Hence, land use/land cover change deduction; a stochastic processed based method is indispensable for future prediction. For identification of land use/land cover, and vegetation changes, Landsat TM, ETM (1995, 2005) and IRS P6- LISS IV (2015) images were used. Through CAMarkov chain analysis, Lu/Lc changes in past three decades (1995, 2005, and 2015) were identified and projected for (2020 and 2025); Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were used to find the vegetation changes. The result shows that, maximum changes occur in the plantation and slight changes found in forest cover in the hilly terrain. In foothill areas, agriculture lands were decreased while wastelands and settlement plots were increased. The outcome of the results helps to farmer and policy makers to draw optimal lands use planning and better management strategies for sustainable development of natural resources.

Site Study Plan for land use, Deaf Smith County site, Texas: Environmental Field Program: Preliminary draft

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-06-01

The Land Use Site Study Plan describes a field program consisting of characterization of the site; seismic survey rights-of-way and transportation and utility corridors, the vicinity, the region, future land use, and monitoring land-use change. Aerial photography will be used to characterize the site, seismic rows and transportation and utility corridors, and the vicinity. The resulting land-use maps and overlays will then be verified in the field. Interviews with farm managers and local experts will provide additional information. A Geographic Information System (GIS) and satellite imagery will be used to characterize the region, monitor land-use change, and provide information to assist with the future land use study. The site study plan describes the study design and rationale, the filed data collection procedures and equipment, the data analysis methods and application of results, the data management strategy, the schedule of field activities, the personnel requirements and management of the study, and the study's quality assurance program. The directives and requirements that drive these studies are derived from the Salt Repository Project Requirements Document. 51 refs; 6 figs; 3 tabs

Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

2013-04-13

This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Status and future transition of rapid urbanizing landscape in central Western Ghats - CA based approach

Science.gov (United States)

Bharath, S..; Rajan, K. S.; Ramachandra, T. V.

2014-11-01

The land use changes in forested landscape are highly complex and dynamic, affected by the natural, socio-economic, cultural, political and other factors. The remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) techniques coupled with multi-criteria evaluation functions such as Markov-cellular automata (CA-Markov) model helps in analysing intensity, extent and future forecasting of human activities affecting the terrestrial biosphere. Karwar taluk of Central Western Ghats in Karnataka state, India has seen rapid transitions in its forest cover due to various anthropogenic activities, primarily driven by major industrial activities. A study based on Landsat and IRS derived data along with CA-Markov method has helped in characterizing the patterns and trends of land use changes over a period of 2004-2013, expected transitions was predicted for a set of scenarios through 2013-2022. The analysis reveals the loss of pristine forest cover from 75.51% to 67.36% (1973 to 2013) and increase in agriculture land as well as built-up area of 8.65% (2013), causing impact on local flora and fauna. The other factors driving these changes are the aggregated level of demand for land, local and regional effects of land use activities such as deforestation, improper practices in expansion of agriculture and infrastructure development, deteriorating natural resources availability. The spatio temporal models helped in visualizing on-going changes apart from prediction of likely changes. The CA-Markov based analysis provides us insights into the localized changes impacting these regions and can be useful in developing appropriate mitigation management approaches based on the modelled future impacts. This necessitates immediate measures for minimizing the future impacts.

Activity-Based Costing Application in an Urban Mass Transport Company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Popesko Boris

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to provide a basic overview of the application of Activity-Based Costing in an urban mass transport company which operates land public transport via buses and trolleys within the city. The case study was conducted using the Activity-Based Methodology in order to calculate the true cost of individual operations and to measure the profitability of particular transport lines. The case study analysis showed the possible effects of the application of the Activity-Based Costing for an urban mass transport company as well as the limitations of using the ABC methodology in the service industry. With regards to the application of the ABC methodology, the primary limitation of the accuracy of the conclusions is the quality of the non-financial information which had to be gathered throughout the implementation process. A basic limitation of the accurate data acquisition is the nature of the fare system of the transport company which does not allow the identification of the route that is taken by an individual passenger. The study illustrates the technique of ABC in urban mass transport and provides a real company example of information outputs of the ABC system. The users indicated that, the ABC model is very useful for profitability reporting and profit management. Also, the paper shows specific application of the Activity-Based Methodology in conditions of urban mass transport companies with regional specifics.

Towards cloud based big data analytics for smart future cities

OpenAIRE

Khan, Zaheer; Anjum, Ashiq; Soomro, Kamran; Tahir, Muhammad

2015-01-01

A large amount of land-use, environment, socio-economic, energy and transport data is generated in cities. An integrated perspective of managing and analysing such big data can answer a number of science, policy, planning, governance and business questions and support decision making in enabling a smarter environment. This paper presents a theoretical and experimental perspective on the smart cities focused big data management and analysis by proposing a cloud-based analytics service. A proto...

Accessibility appraisal of integrated land-use/transport policy strategies: more than just adding up travel time savings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Geurs, Karst Teunis; Zondag, Barry; de Jong, Gerard; de Bok, Michiel

2010-01-01

We examine the accessibility benefits associated with some land-use policy strategies for the Netherlands that anticipate on expected climate change. A disaggregate logsum accessibility measure using the Dutch national land-use/transport interaction model TIGRIS XL is used to compute changes in

Envisioning Parking Strategies in the Framework of Sustainable Urban Transport

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni Circella

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Monetary instruments to regulate parking are often used in central areas of cities to discourage long term parking of vehicles. The availability of parking facilities, and its cost, in fact represents an important element in the decision to operate private vehicles in urban areas. The availability of instruments and tools to check the outcome of modification in parking regulations, in terms of modification of car use, successfully support planners in the determination of the best policies to decrease congestion, and regulate the use of transportation in cities. Integrated land use transportation models may successfully contribute to the assessment of such policy packages. This contribution discusses the use of the model MARS-Bari (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator for the analysis of future scenarios of development of land use and transportation. MARS-Bari is a fast integrated land use transportation model, which is designed for applications in strategic planning of urban and metropolitan areas. The model was developed as a decision support tool, to help planners in the definition of sets of policies on land use and transportation, and promote equilibrated growth of the urban system (smart growth. MARS-Bari shares the basic assumptions of the Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator (MARS modeling system, so far successfully applied to many cities of both Europe and Asia. The structure of MARS-Bari is highly flexible on purpose, allowing multiple hypothesis tests of future scenarios and policies. MARS-Bari works at a high level of spatial aggregation, and its simulations are developed on a long-term time horizon (30-years in the current version. Two main sub-models run in MARS-Bari: they respectively simulate the development of land use, and the transportation system. Four different classes of users are distinguished in the transportation model, depending on the possible access to one or more of the five transportation modes: car

A European perspective on GIS-based walkability and active modes of transport.

Science.gov (United States)

Grasser, Gerlinde; van Dyck, Delfien; Titze, Sylvia; Stronegger, Willibald J

2017-02-01

The association between GIS-based walkability and walking for transport is considered to be well established in USA and in Australia. Research on the association between walkability and cycling for transport in European cities is lacking. The aim of this study was to test the predictive validity of established walkability measures and to explore alternative walkability measures associated with walking and cycling for transport in a European context. Outcome data were derived from the representative cross-sectional survey ( n  = 843) ‘Radfreundliche Stadt’ of adults in the city of Graz (Austria). GIS-based walkability was measured using both established measures (e.g. gross population density, household unit density, entropy index, three-way intersection density, IPEN walkability index) and alternative measures (e.g. proportion of mixed land use, four-way intersection density, Graz walkability index). ANCOVAs were conducted to examine the adjusted association between walkability measures and outcomes. Household unit density, proportion of mixed land use, three-way intersection density and IPEN walkability index were positively associated with walking for transport, but the other measures were not. All walkability measures were positively associated with cycling for transport. The established walkability measures were applicable to a European city such as Graz. The alternative walkability measures performed well in a European context. Due to measurement issues the association between these walkability measures and walking for transport needs to be investigated further. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Revisiting a programmatic planning approach: managing linkages between transport and land use planning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Busscher, Tim; Tillema, Taede; Arts, Eric

2013-01-01

The body of knowledge on transport and land use planning shows considerable overlap with management theories and practices. Notable examples can be found in project management and strategic management. Recently, in the field of management theory, the idea of programme management has gained

The rules for land use, land use change and forestry under the Kyoto Protocol. Lessons learned for the future climate negotiations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoehne, N.; Wartmann, S.; Herold, A.; Freibauer, A.

2007-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the rules for accounting emissions of land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) for the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. It first describes the rules in detail, it then provides an overview of the history of negotiations that led to these rules and provides resulting conclusions for future international climate negotiations. We conclude that the current rules can be better understood in the light of the negotiation history. For the future, we conclude that first an agreement on the objectives of including LULUCF in the future climate regime should be developed, e.g. to contribute significantly to the ultimate objective of the convention. Further, a solid set of data should be developed that can assess the magnitude of possible options. The rules should be scientifically sound, complete and balanced as well as unambiguous before the quantitative targets are defined. They should further be simple and inclusive to include all carbon pools, i.e. provide incentives to avoid deforestation and unsustainable logging in all countries

Impacts of Changing Climatic Drivers and Land use features on Future Stormwater Runoff in the Northwest Florida Basin: A Large-Scale Hydrologic Modeling Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2017-12-01

Potential changes in climatic drivers and land cover features can significantly influence the stormwater budget in the Northwest Florida Basin. We investigated the hydro-climatic and land use sensitivities of stormwater runoff by developing a large-scale process-based rainfall-runoff model for the large basin by using the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Climatic and hydrologic variables, as well as land use/cover features were incorporated into the model to account for the key processes of coastal hydrology and its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea levels. We calibrated and validated the model by historical daily streamflow observations during 2009-2012 at four major rivers in the basin. Downscaled climatic drivers (precipitation, temperature, solar radiation) projected by twenty GCMs-RCMs under CMIP5, along with the projected future land use/cover features were also incorporated into the model. The basin storm runoff was then simulated for the historical (2000s = 1976-2005) and two future periods (2050s = 2030-2059, and 2080s = 2070-2099). Comparative evaluation of the historical and future scenarios leads to important guidelines for stormwater management in Northwest Florida and similar regions under a changing climate and environment.

Inter- and transdisciplinary scenario construction to explore future land-use options in southern Amazonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Regine Schönenberg

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Our aim with this paper is to present a novel approach for developing story lines and scenarios by combining qualitative knowledge and quantitative data from different disciplines and discussing the results with relevant decision makers. This research strategy offers a solid foundation for perspectives into the future. The "laboratory" is the Brazilian Amazon, one of the hotspots of land-use change where local and global interests both collide and converge: local livelihoods are affected by regional and global climate change and by the loss of biodiversity caused by local and global economic interests in agro-industrial land use; such use contributes, in turn, to climate change. After decades of diverse policy interventions the question arises: What can we learn from past trajectories for a more sustainable development in the future? To answer this question, we combined qualitative story lines for the region, reviewed by local experts, with quantitative land-use scenarios, to study their regional and local manifestations in space. These results were then discussed again with local and national experts. Our findings suggest that in-depth knowledge of the diverging perspectives at a very local level is a fundamental prerequisite for downscaling global scenarios and upscaling local approaches to sustainable land-use management and thus, to producing communicable and applicable results.

Coupling a three-dimensional subsurface flow and transport model with a land surface model to simulate stream–aquifer–land interactions (CP v1.0

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Bisht

2017-12-01

Full Text Available A fully coupled three-dimensional surface and subsurface land model is developed and applied to a site along the Columbia River to simulate three-way interactions among river water, groundwater, and land surface processes. The model features the coupling of the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5 and a massively parallel multiphysics reactive transport model (PFLOTRAN. The coupled model, named CP v1.0, is applied to a 400 m × 400 m study domain instrumented with groundwater monitoring wells along the Columbia River shoreline. CP v1.0 simulations are performed at three spatial resolutions (i.e., 2, 10, and 20 m over a 5-year period to evaluate the impact of hydroclimatic conditions and spatial resolution on simulated variables. Results show that the coupled model is capable of simulating groundwater–river-water interactions driven by river stage variability along managed river reaches, which are of global significance as a result of over 30 000 dams constructed worldwide during the past half-century. Our numerical experiments suggest that the land-surface energy partitioning is strongly modulated by groundwater–river-water interactions through expanding the periodically inundated fraction of the riparian zone, and enhancing moisture availability in the vadose zone via capillary rise in response to the river stage change. Meanwhile, CLM4.5 fails to capture the key hydrologic process (i.e., groundwater–river-water exchange at the site, and consequently simulates drastically different water and energy budgets. Furthermore, spatial resolution is found to significantly impact the accuracy of estimated the mass exchange rates at the boundaries of the aquifer, and it becomes critical when surface and subsurface become more tightly coupled with groundwater table within 6 to 7 meters below the surface. Inclusion of lateral subsurface flow influenced both the surface energy budget and subsurface transport processes as a result

Coupling a three-dimensional subsurface flow and transport model with a land surface model to simulate stream-aquifer-land interactions (CP v1.0)

Science.gov (United States)

Bisht, Gautam; Huang, Maoyi; Zhou, Tian; Chen, Xingyuan; Dai, Heng; Hammond, Glenn E.; Riley, William J.; Downs, Janelle L.; Liu, Ying; Zachara, John M.

2017-12-01

A fully coupled three-dimensional surface and subsurface land model is developed and applied to a site along the Columbia River to simulate three-way interactions among river water, groundwater, and land surface processes. The model features the coupling of the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and a massively parallel multiphysics reactive transport model (PFLOTRAN). The coupled model, named CP v1.0, is applied to a 400 m × 400 m study domain instrumented with groundwater monitoring wells along the Columbia River shoreline. CP v1.0 simulations are performed at three spatial resolutions (i.e., 2, 10, and 20 m) over a 5-year period to evaluate the impact of hydroclimatic conditions and spatial resolution on simulated variables. Results show that the coupled model is capable of simulating groundwater-river-water interactions driven by river stage variability along managed river reaches, which are of global significance as a result of over 30 000 dams constructed worldwide during the past half-century. Our numerical experiments suggest that the land-surface energy partitioning is strongly modulated by groundwater-river-water interactions through expanding the periodically inundated fraction of the riparian zone, and enhancing moisture availability in the vadose zone via capillary rise in response to the river stage change. Meanwhile, CLM4.5 fails to capture the key hydrologic process (i.e., groundwater-river-water exchange) at the site, and consequently simulates drastically different water and energy budgets. Furthermore, spatial resolution is found to significantly impact the accuracy of estimated the mass exchange rates at the boundaries of the aquifer, and it becomes critical when surface and subsurface become more tightly coupled with groundwater table within 6 to 7 meters below the surface. Inclusion of lateral subsurface flow influenced both the surface energy budget and subsurface transport processes as a result of river-water intrusion into the

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CARGO INSURANCE CONTRACT IN CASE OF INTERNATIONAL LAND TRANSPORT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dănilă Ștefan MATEI

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Cargo international transport is an engine for the development of the economic relations between states involving cross-border movement of goods through the crossing of at least one border of a state (international transport or by crossing at least two border crossing points, in which case we are in the presence of an international cargo transit. During the transit the goods transported may be subject to an insurance. The object of the cargo insurance is, thus, represented by the goods, the items expressly listed in the insurance policy, within the territorial limits specified in the insurance policy, both during the transport and during the storage, in the latter case, at the express request of the insured and with the acceptance of the insurer. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the cargo insurance aiming to present the theoretical and practical aspects of interest with regard to the cargo insurance concluded in case of an international land freight transport.

Evaluation of ecosystem service based on scenario simulation of land use in Yunnan Province

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hong; Liao, Xiaoli; Zhai, Tianlin

2018-04-01

Climate change and rapid urbanization are important factors restricting future land use. Situational analysis, as an important foundation for the optimization of land use, needs to focus on the impact of climate factors and socio-economic factors. In this paper, the Markov model and the DLS (Simulation of Land System Dynamics) model are combined for the first time, and the land use pattern in 2020 is simulated based on the data of land use in 2000 and 2010 as well as the climate, soil, topography and socio-economic factors of Yunnan Province. In his paper, we took Yunnan Province as the case study area, and selected 12 driving factors by logistic regression method, then the land use demands and layout of Yunnan Province in 2020 has been forecasted and simulated under business as usual (BAU) scenario and farmland protection (FP) scenario and the changes in ecosystem service value has been calculated. The result shows that: (1) after the regression analysis and ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) test, the 12 factors selected in this paper have a strong ability to explain the land use change in Yunnan Province. (2) Under the two scenarios, the significant reduction of arable land area is a common feature of land use change in Yunnan Province in the future, and its main land use type will be construction land. However, under FP scenario, the current situation where construction land encroach on arable land will be improved. Compared with the change from 2000 to 2010, the trend of arable land, forest land, water area, construction land and unused land will be the same under the two scenarios, whereas the change trend of grassland was opposite. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the value of ecosystem services in Yunnan Province is on the rise, but the ecosystem service value under FP scenario is higher than that of the ecosystem services under BAU scenario. In general, land use in 2020 in Yunnan Province continues the pattern of 2010, but there are also significant spatial

Accountable Accounting: Carbon-Based Management on Marginal Lands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tara L. DiRocco

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Substantial discussion exists concerning the best land use options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG emissions on marginal land. Emissions-mitigating land use options include displacement of fossil fuels via biofuel production and afforestation. Comparing C recovery dynamics under these different options is crucial to assessing the efficacy of offset programs. In this paper, we focus on forest recovery on marginal land, and show that there is substantial inaccuracy and discrepancy in the literature concerning carbon accumulation. We find that uncertainty in carbon accumulation occurs in estimations of carbon stocks and models of carbon dynamics over time. We suggest that analyses to date have been largely unsuccessful at determining reliable trends in site recovery due to broad land use categories, a failure to consider the effect of current and post-restoration management, and problems with meta-analysis. Understanding of C recovery could be greatly improved with increased data collection on pre-restoration site quality, prior land use history, and management practices as well as increased methodological standardization. Finally, given the current and likely future uncertainty in C dynamics, we recommend carbon mitigation potential should not be the only environmental service driving land use decisions on marginal lands.

Geographically explicit urban land use change scenarios for Mega cities: a case study in Tokyo

Science.gov (United States)

Yamagata, Y.; Bagan, H.; Seya, H.; Nakamichi, K.

2010-12-01

to derive future distribution of fractional green vegetation cover. The study has created two extreme land-use scenarios: urban concentration (compact city) and dispersion scenarios in order to show possible range of future land use change, and derives the input parameters for the climate models. The authors are planning to open the scenarios and derived parameters to relate researches. Anas, A. and Y. Liu. (2007). A Regional Economy, Land Use, and Transportation Model (REULU-TRAN): Formulation, Algorithm Design, and Testing. Journal of Regional Science, 47, 415-455. Parker, D.C., T. Berger, S.M. Manson, Editors (2001). Agent-Based Models of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change. LUCC Report Series No. 6, (Accessed: 27 AUG. 2009; http://www.globallandproject.org/Documents/LUCC_No_6.pdf) United Nations. (2010). World urbanization prospects: City population.

Perceptions of on-site hunters: Environmental concerns, future land use, and cleanup options at the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burger, J.; Sanchez, J.

1999-01-01

The Department of Energy owns land in 34 states, and most of these lands have been off limits to the public for over 50 years. Although some parts of each site are contaminated, most of many sites are not. With the ending of the Cold War, the department is considering alternative land uses. In this article, the perceptions of hunters and fishermen allowed on site for a limited time were examined, about environmental concerns, future land use, and cleanup options. Although loss of jobs was the foremost concern, preserving parts of the site had more support as a future land use than continuing the nuclear mission, and nearly three-quarters of the sample supported cleanup, regardless of cost. On-site employment was a significant indicator of lower concern about safety and environmental issues, less support for designating the site for research, and more concern for maintaining jobs

30 years of experience in safe transportation of nuclear materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaneko, K.

2004-01-01

In April 2003, Nuclear Fuel Transport Co., Ltd. (NFT) marked the 30 th anniversary of its founding. NFT was established in 1973 and in 1978, commenced SF transport to the reprocessing plant in Tokai-mura. And then, after making preparations to transport nuclear materials to the various facilities at the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Center in Rokkasho-mura, NFT successfully started transportation of LLW (low level waste) to Rokksho-mura's LLW disposal center in 1992, domestic land transportation of HLW returned from overseas to the HLW storage center in 1995, domestic land transportation of natural hexafluoride delivered from overseas to the uranium enrichment plant in 1996, and transportation of SF to the reprocessing plant in 2000. NFT has realized an annual SF transportation capacity of 300 MTU and is currently making great company wide efforts to meet the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant's future SF annual reprocessing capacity of 800MTU. At the end of FY2003, NFT had successfully transported 560 casks (about 1,730 MTU) of SF in more than 200 voyages in total, about 160,000 drums of LLW in around 100 voyages in total. This paper introduces the record of safe transport and its experience over the past 30 years and prospect for future transport business

30 years of experience in safe transportation of nuclear materials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaneko, K. [Nuclear Fuel Transport Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

2004-07-01

In April 2003, Nuclear Fuel Transport Co., Ltd. (NFT) marked the 30{sup th} anniversary of its founding. NFT was established in 1973 and in 1978, commenced SF transport to the reprocessing plant in Tokai-mura. And then, after making preparations to transport nuclear materials to the various facilities at the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Center in Rokkasho-mura, NFT successfully started transportation of LLW (low level waste) to Rokksho-mura's LLW disposal center in 1992, domestic land transportation of HLW returned from overseas to the HLW storage center in 1995, domestic land transportation of natural hexafluoride delivered from overseas to the uranium enrichment plant in 1996, and transportation of SF to the reprocessing plant in 2000. NFT has realized an annual SF transportation capacity of 300 MTU and is currently making great company wide efforts to meet the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant's future SF annual reprocessing capacity of 800MTU. At the end of FY2003, NFT had successfully transported 560 casks (about 1,730 MTU) of SF in more than 200 voyages in total, about 160,000 drums of LLW in around 100 voyages in total. This paper introduces the record of safe transport and its experience over the past 30 years and prospect for future transport business.

Options for including all lands in a future greenhouse gas accounting framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cowie, Annette L.; Kirschbaum, Miko U.F.; Ward, Murray

2007-01-01

for individual countries, and, if desired, in factoring out residual effects of natural variability on emissions/removals. Under the Average Carbon Stocks approach, debits/credits for changes in land use or management practices would be based on the changes in long-term average carbon stocks associated with changes in specific land use and management regimes. This approach thereby directly identifies the anthropogenic component, and assigns debits and credits accordingly. It may prove problematic, however, for countries to accept long-term averages rather than observable realised carbon-stock changes as the basis for accounting. Thus, none of the options is without its drawbacks, but Net Accounting with Negotiated Baselines and the Average Carbon Stocks approach could potentially be used as the basis of developing a future 'all lands' accounting framework

A framework for considering climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : lessons learned from an interagency pilot project on Cape Cod.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-07-01

The Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Pilot Project utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multi-agency transportation- and land use-focused development strategy for Cape Cod, Massachusetts, with the intention of ach...

Abandonment landscapes: user attitudes, alternative futures and land management in Castro Laboreiro, Portugal

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Zanden, Emma H.; Carvalho-Ribeiro, Sónia M.; Verburg, P.H.

2018-01-01

Land abandonment is an important process for the European Union, which primarily occurs in less productive, remote and mountainous areas with unfavourable conditions for agriculture. Future management directions of these abandonment areas are under debate, with increasing calls to adjust policies to

The impacts of land reclamation on suspended-sediment dynamics in Jiaozhou Bay, Qingdao, China

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Guan Dong; Wang, Xiao Hua; Bao, Xian Wen; Song, Dehai; Lin, Xiao Pei; Qiao, Lu Lu

2018-06-01

A three-dimensional, high-resolution tidal model coupled with the UNSW sediment model (UNSW-Sed) based on Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) was set up to study the suspended-sediment dynamics and its change in Jiaozhou Bay (JZB) due to land reclamation over the period 1935 to 2008. During the past decades, a large amount of tidal flats were lost due to land reclamation. Other than modulating the tides, the tidal flats are a primary source for sediment resuspensions, leading to turbidity maxima nearshore. The tidal dynamics are dominant in controlling the suspended-sediment dynamics in JZB and have experienced significant changes with the loss of tidal flats due to the land reclamation. The sediment model coupled with the tide model was used to investigate the changes in suspended-sediment dynamics due to the land reclamation from 1935 to 2008, including suspended-sediment concentrations (SSC) and the horizontal suspended-sediment fluxes. This model can predict the general patterns of the spatial and temporal variation of SSC. The model was applied to investigate how the net transport of suspended sediments between JZB and its adjacent sea areas changed with land reclamation: in 1935 the net movement of suspended sediments was from JZB to the adjacent sea (erosion for JZB), primarily caused by horizontal advection associated with a horizontal gradient in the SSC; This seaward transport (erosion for JZB) had gradually declined from 1935 to 2008. If land reclamation on a large scale is continued in future, the net transport between JZB and the adjacent sea would turn landward and JZB would switch from erosion to siltation due to the impact of land reclamation on the horizontal advection of suspended sediments. We also evaluate the primary physical mechanisms including advection of suspended sediments, settling lag and tidal asymmetry, which control the suspended-sediment dynamics with the process of land reclamation.

Land use efficiency: anticipating future demand for land-sector greenhouse gas emissions abatement and managing trade-offs with agriculture, water, and biodiversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Bryan, Brett A; Crossman, Neville D; Nolan, Martin; Li, Jing; Navarro, Javier; Connor, Jeffery D

2015-11-01

Competition for land is increasing, and policy needs to ensure the efficient supply of multiple ecosystem services from land systems. We modelled the spatially explicit potential future supply of ecosystem services in Australia's intensive agricultural land in response to carbon markets under four global outlooks from 2013 to 2050. We assessed the productive efficiency of greenhouse gas emissions abatement, agricultural production, water resources, and biodiversity services and compared these to production possibility frontiers (PPFs). While interacting commodity markets and carbon markets produced efficient outcomes for agricultural production and emissions abatement, more efficient outcomes were possible for water resources and biodiversity services due to weak price signals. However, when only two objectives were considered as per typical efficiency assessments, efficiency improvements involved significant unintended trade-offs for the other objectives and incurred substantial opportunity costs. Considering multiple objectives simultaneously enabled the identification of land use arrangements that were efficient over multiple ecosystem services. Efficient land use arrangements could be selected that meet society's preferences for ecosystem service provision from land by adjusting the metric used to combine multiple services. To effectively manage competition for land via land use efficiency, market incentives are needed that effectively price multiple ecosystem services. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

SEEMLA: 'Filling the gap' - The Future of bioenergy in the EU and the role of biomass from marginal lands

Science.gov (United States)

Baumgarten, Wibke; Kerckow, Birger

2017-04-01

The main objective of the H2020 funded EU project SEEMLA is the establishment of suitable innovative land-use strategies for a sustainable production of plant-based energy on marginal lands while improving general ecosystem services. In the context of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG, Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz) and the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) a concept should be developed with SEEMLA for a sustainable use of domestic biomass in order to be able to 'fill the gap' of the future demand in renewable resources as an energy source till 2050. The project partner countries are Italy, the Ukraine and Greece besides Germany.

Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

2017-12-01

Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

Future space transportation systems systems analysis study, phase 1 technical report

Science.gov (United States)

1975-01-01

The requirements of projected space programs (1985-1995) for transportation vehicles more advanced than the space shuttle are discussed. Several future program options are described and their transportation needs are analyzed. Alternative systems approaches to meeting these needs are presented.

The Effect of No Agricultural Productivity Growth on Future Land Use and Climate through Biogeophysical Mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Davies-Barnard, T.; Valdes, P. J.; Singarayer, J. S.; Jones, C.

2012-12-01

Future land use and the consequent land cover change will have a significant impact on future climate through biogeophysical (albedo, surface roughness and latent heat transfer, etc.) as well as biogeochemical (greenhouse gas emissions etc.) mechanisms. One of the major determinants of the extent of land use induced land cover change is the agricultural productivity growth within the socio-economic models used for developing the RCP scenarios. There are considerable uncertainties in the size of agricultural productivity under climate change, as yields are projected to vary spatially in signal and strength. Previous climate modeling work has considered the impacts to the carbon cycle of different levels of agricultural productivity growth, but has failed to consider the biogeophysical effects of the land use induced land cover change on climate. Here we examine the climate impacts of the assumption of agricultural productivity growth and business as usual land use. The effects are considered through the biogeophysical land use induced land cover change, using the Hadley Centre climate model HadGEM2. The model simulations use the set biogeochemical climate forcing of the RCP 4.5 scenario, but the biogeophysical land use change specification is altered over a 100 year simulation. Simulations are run with combinations of no land use change; standard RCP 4.5 land use change; business as usual land use change; and zero agricultural productivity growth. The key effect of no agricultural productivity growth is that more cropland is required to feed the same population, necessitating cropland expansion. The expansion of cropland and consequent deforestation increases the albedo and gives an extensive cooling effect in the northern hemisphere (up to 2°C). Differences in global mean temperature between the zero agricultural productivity growth with business as usual land use change specified run and the standard RCP 4.5 run are -0.2°C by 2040 and -0.7°C by 2100. There is

Child- and youth-friendly land-use and transport planning guidelines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gilbert, R.; O' Brien, C. [Centre for Sustainable Transportation, Toronto, ON (Canada)

2005-04-27

Increased automobile use has been associated with rising obesity, reduced academic performance and compromised emotional development in children and youths. This paper proposed a range of guidelines focused on the needs of children and young people. It is intended for use by municipalities or other agencies in transport and land-use planning. Recommendations included the appointment of a staff or council member responsible for bringing a children's perspective to transport and land use planning issues; an identification of the travel needs of young people; an exploration of pedestrian routes used by children to ensure their safety and useability; and the arrangement of walking buses and other means of supervision for very young children. The construction of separate sidewalks for children and youth on heavy traffic roads was recommended, as well as separate bicycle paths and provisions at intersections. It was suggested that planners should ensure that destinations needed by children are within walking or cycling distance. It was also suggested that the transit system should be made safer and introduce or maintain low fares. It was observed that school funding formulas encourage the construction and use of large schools that are more likely to have traffic congestion, and that parents often pressure school boards for more buses so that children will not have to walk or cycle to school. Reductions in road traffic and the enforcement of speed limits in urban areas were recommended, as well as the use of low emission or electric vehicles. It was suggested that there is a lack of parental awareness regarding the short- and long-term health impacts of driving their children rather than supporting active transport. 90 refs., 2 tabs., 9 figs.

Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts.

Science.gov (United States)

Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A M; Bayer, Anita D; Li, Wei; Leung, Felix; Bondeau, Alberte; Doelman, Jonathan C; Humpenöder, Florian; Anthoni, Peter; Bodirsky, Benjamin L; Ciais, Philippe; Müller, Christoph; Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Olin, Stefan; Popp, Alexander; Sitch, Stephen; Stehfest, Elke; Arneth, Almut

2018-07-01

Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy. © 2018 John

Intelligent Transportation Control based on Proactive Complex Event Processing

OpenAIRE

Wang Yongheng; Geng Shaofeng; Li Qian

2016-01-01

Complex Event Processing (CEP) has become the key part of Internet of Things (IoT). Proactive CEP can predict future system states and execute some actions to avoid unwanted states which brings new hope to intelligent transportation control. In this paper, we propose a proactive CEP architecture and method for intelligent transportation control. Based on basic CEP technology and predictive analytic technology, a networked distributed Markov decision processes model with predicting states is p...

Modelling of radionuclide transport in forests: Review and future perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaw, G.; Schell, W.; Linkov, I.

1997-01-01

Ecological modeling is a powerful tool which can be used to synthesize information on the dynamic processes which occur in ecosystems. Models of radionuclide transport in forests were first constructed in the mid-1960's, when the consequences of global fallout from nuclear weapons tests and waste disposal in the environment were of great concern. Such models were developed based on site-specific experimental data and were designed to address local needs. These models had a limited applicability in evaluating distinct ecosystems and deposition scenarios. Given the scarcity of information, the same experimental data sets were often used both for model calibration and validation, an approach which clearly constitutes a methodological error. Even though the carry modeling attempts were far from being faultless, they established a useful conceptual approach in that they tried to capture general processes in ecosystems and thus had a holistic nature. Later, radioecological modeling attempted to reveal ecosystem properties by separating the component parts from the whole system, as an approach to simplification. This method worked well for radionuclide transport in agricultural ecosystems, in which the biogeochemistry of radionuclide cycling is relatively well understood and can be influenced by fertilization. Several models have been successfully developed and applied to human dose evaluation and emergency response to contaminating events in agricultural lands

Integrated assessment of future land use in Brazil under increasing demand for bioenergy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verstegen, Judith; van der Hilst, Floortje; Karssenberg, Derek; Faaij, André

2014-01-01

Environmental impacts of a future increase in demand for bioenergydepend on the magnitude, location and pattern of the direct and indirectland use change of energy cropland expansion. Here we aim at 1)projecting the spatiotemporal pattern of sugar cane expansion and theeffect on other land uses in

Climate change, land use and land surveyors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Molen, P.; Mitchell, D.

2016-01-01

Research reveals that the land sector is a major emitter of greenhouse gases. But the land sector has also potential to reduce emissions. Different from other emission sectors like energy and transport, the land sector (in particular the rural area including forests) has the potential to also remove

Commercial Space Transportation and Approaches to landing sites over Maritime Areas

OpenAIRE

Morlang, Frank; Hampe, Jens; Kaltenhäuser, Sven; Schmitt, Dirk-Roger

2015-01-01

Commercial Space Transportation becomes an international business and requires landing opportunities all over the world. Hence the integration of space vehicles in other airspace than the US NAS is an important topic to be considered. The Single European Sky ATM Research Programme (SESAR) is preparing the implementation of a new ATM system in Europe. The requirements are defined by the concept of the shared Business Trajectory and System Wide Information Management (SWIM). Space vehicle op...

Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roxana Juliá

2013-12-01

Full Text Available This paper uses the World Trade Model with Climate Sensitive Land (WTMCL to evaluate possible future land-use changes associated with adaptations to climate change in a globalized world. In this approach, changes in regional agricultural production, which are based on comparative advantage, define patterns of land use change in agriculture in all regions of the world. We evaluate four scenarios that combine assumptions about future increases in food demand and future changes in land endowments of different productivities associated with climatic conditions: each scenario generates distinct patterns of regional specialization in the production of agricultural commodities and associated land-use change. The analysis also projects future food availability under the simulated conditions and the direction of likely changes in prices of the major agricultural commodity groups.

Life cycle energy and greenhouse gas emissions from transportation of Canadian oil sands to future markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tarnoczi, Tyler

2013-01-01

Oil sands transportation diversification is important for preventing discounted crude pricing. Current life cycle assessment (LCA) models that assess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from crude oil transportation are linearly-scale and fail to account for project specific details. This research sets out to develop a detailed LCA model to compare the energy inputs and GHG emissions of pipeline and rail transportation for oil sands products. The model is applied to several proposed oils sands transportation routes that may serve as future markets. Comparison between transportation projects suggest that energy inputs and GHG emissions show a high degree of variation. For both rail and pipeline transportation, the distance over which the product is transported has a large impact on total emissions. The regional electricity grid and pump efficiency have the largest impact on pipeline emissions, while train engine efficiency and bitumen blending ratios have the largest impact on rail transportation emissions. LCA-based GHG regulations should refine models to account for the range of product pathways and focus efforts on cost-effective emission reductions. As the climate-change impacts of new oil sands transportation projects are considered, GHG emission boundaries should be defined according to operation control. -- Highlights: •A life cycle model is developed to compare transportation of oil sands products. •The model is applied to several potential future oil sands markets. •Energy inputs and GHG emissions are compared. •Model inputs are explored using sensitivity analysis. •Policy recommendations are provided

Research on Evaluation of resource allocation efficiency of transportation system based on DEA

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhehui; Du, Linan

2017-06-01

In this paper, we select the time series data onto 1985-2015 years, construct the land (shoreline) resources, capital and labor as inputs. The index system of the output is freight volume and passenger volume, we use Quantitative analysis based on DEA method evaluated the resource allocation efficiency of railway, highway, water transport and civil aviation in China. Research shows that the resource allocation efficiency of various modes of transport has obvious difference, and the impact on scale efficiency is more significant. The most important two ways to optimize the allocation of resources to improve the efficiency of the combination of various modes of transport is promoting the co-ordination of various modes of transport and constructing integrated transportation system.

Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

Science.gov (United States)

Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

2012-12-01

An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

Science.gov (United States)

Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

2012-12-01

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

Using geometrical, textural, and contextual information of land parcels for classification of detailed urban land use

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, S.-S.; Qiu, X.; Usery, E.L.; Wang, L.

2009-01-01

Detailed urban land use data are important to government officials, researchers, and businesspeople for a variety of purposes. This article presents an approach to classifying detailed urban land use based on geometrical, textural, and contextual information of land parcels. An area of 6 by 14 km in Austin, Texas, with land parcel boundaries delineated by the Travis Central Appraisal District of Travis County, Texas, is tested for the approach. We derive fifty parcel attributes from relevant geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing data and use them to discriminate among nine urban land uses: single family, multifamily, commercial, office, industrial, civic, open space, transportation, and undeveloped. Half of the 33,025 parcels in the study area are used as training data for land use classification and the other half are used as testing data for accuracy assessment. The best result with a decision tree classification algorithm has an overall accuracy of 96 percent and a kappa coefficient of 0.78, and two naive, baseline models based on the majority rule and the spatial autocorrelation rule have overall accuracy of 89 percent and 79 percent, respectively. The algorithm is relatively good at classifying single-family, multifamily, commercial, open space, and undeveloped land uses and relatively poor at classifying office, industrial, civic, and transportation land uses. The most important attributes for land use classification are the geometrical attributes, particularly those related to building areas. Next are the contextual attributes, particularly those relevant to the spatial relationship between buildings, then the textural attributes, particularly the semivariance texture statistic from 0.61-m resolution images.

Sustainable mobility. Sustainable development and the passenger transportation facilities structure in the Randstad, Netherlands; Duurzame mobiliteit. Duurzame ontwikkeling en de voorzieningenstructuur van het personenvervoer in de Randstad

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baggen, J.

1994-06-23

The environmental problems in the Netherlands and the necessity of a sustainable development are outlined in chapter 1. Sustainable development is situated and studied in the area of tension of environment/ecology and economy. Sustainable mobility is located in the area of tension between amenity and accessibility. In chapter 2 a conceptual framework is created to indicate ways that result in a lasting compatibility of (car)mobility with both physical environment and social-economic development. In chapter 3 instruments are chosen for the empirical part of this study: reduction of unwanted car mobility by construction of alternative infrastructure (public transport) in combination with a reduction (prevention) of mobility needs by means of physical planning. A theoretical system description of transport systems in their spatial and regional-economic context is given, resulting in a layout for present and future transport systems, based on transport mode (private and public transport), function (main route or feeder) and spatial level (from international to local). In chapter 4 spatial levels are the basis for a description and analysis of developments and policy in the fields of physical planning, transport and environment. Chapter 6 gives a description and an analysis of present facilities structures and their effects on amenity in the area of study. In chapter 7 a number of land-use scenarios for facilities structures and effects on amenity of passenger transport in future are designed for the Randstad in 2015. These scenarios are chosen on the basis of a number of factors that effect land-use planning: the exogenous effects of demographic developments and endogenous effects of physical planning on future land-use of the study area. A combination of these two factors results in four land-use scenarios. They are mainly supplemented with various configurations of housing locations on the basis of different physical planning principles. (Abstract Truncated)

Border-wide assessment of intelligent transportation system (ITS) technology : current and future concepts.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-01

The purpose of this effort was to conduct a border-wide assessment of the use of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) technologies and operational concepts at and near land border crossings between the U.S. and Mexico. The work focused on tolling...

Challenges and opportunities in mapping land use intensity globally

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kuemmerle, Tobias; Erb, Karlheinz; Meyfroidt, Patrick

2013-01-01

Future increases in land-based production will need to focus more on sustainably intensifying existing production systems. Unfortunately, our understanding of the global patterns of land use intensity is weak, partly because land use intensity is a complex, multidimensional term, and partly becau...... challenges and opportunities for mapping land use intensity for cropland, grazing, and forestry systems, and identify key issues for future research....... we lack appropriate datasets to assess land use intensity across broad geographic extents. Here, we review the state of the art regarding approaches for mapping land use intensity and provide a comprehensive overview of available global-scale datasets on land use intensity. We also outline major...

Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2015-08-01

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm^–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

Simulation of future land use change and climate change impacts on hydrological processes in a tropical catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Marhaento, H.; Booij, M. J.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

2017-12-01

Future hydrological processes in the Samin catchment (278 km2) in Java, Indonesia have been simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using inputs from predicted land use distributions in the period 2030 - 2050, bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) output and output of six Global Climate Models (GCMs) to include climate model uncertainty. Two land use change scenarios namely a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where no measures are taken to control land use change, and a controlled (CON) scenario, where the future land use follows the land use planning, were used in the simulations together with two climate change scenarios namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. It was predicted that in 2050 settlement and agriculture area of the study catchment will increase by 33.9% and 3.5%, respectively under the BAU scenario, whereas agriculture area and evergreen forest will increase by 15.2% and 10.2%, respectively under the CON scenario. In comparison to the baseline conditions (1983 - 2005), the predicted mean annual maximum and minimum temperature in 2030 - 2050 will increase by an average of +10C, while changes in the mean annual rainfall range from -20% to +19% under RCP 4.5 and from -25% to +15% under RCP 8.5. The results show that land use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual stream flow and surface runoff. It was observed that combination of the RCP 4.5 climate scenario and BAU land use scenario resulted in an increase of the mean annual stream flow from -7% to +64% and surface runoff from +21% to +102%, which is 40% and 60% more than when land use change is acting alone. Furthermore, under the CON scenario the annual stream flow and surface runoff could be potentially reduced by up to 10% and 30%, respectively indicating the effectiveness of applied

Spatio-temporal dynamics of regulating ecosystem services in Europe – The role of past and future land use change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sturck, J.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Verburg, P.H.

2015-01-01

Land use is a main driver for changes in supply and demand of regulating ecosystem services (ES). Most current ES inventories are static and do not address dynamics of ES supply resulting from historic and future land use change. This paper analyzes the role of land use change for the supply of two

Comparison of in-flight and ground-based simulator derived flying qualities and pilot performance for approach and landing tasks

Science.gov (United States)

Grantham, William D.; Williams, Robert H.

1987-01-01

For the case of an approach-and-landing piloting task emphasizing response to the landing flare, pilot opinion and performance parameters derived from jet transport aircraft six-degree-of-freedom ground-based and in-flight simulators were compared in order to derive data for the flight-controls/flying-qualities engineers. The data thus obtained indicate that ground simulation results tend to be conservative, and that the effect of control sensitivity is more pronounced for ground simulation. The pilot also has a greater tendency to generate pilot-induced oscillation in ground-based simulation than in flight.

Impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere – Part 1: Tropospheric composition and air quality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Wang

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Vehicles burning fossil fuel emit a number of substances that change the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere, and contribute to global air and water pollution and climate change. For example, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs emitted as byproducts of fossil fuel combustion are key precursors to ground-level ozone and aerosol formation. In addition, on-road vehicles are major CO2 emitters. In order to tackle these problems, molecular hydrogen (H2 has been proposed as an energy carrier to substitute for fossil fuels in the future. However, before implementing any such strategy it is crucial to evaluate its potential impacts on air quality and climate. Here, we evaluate the impact of a future (2050 H2-based road transportation sector on tropospheric chemistry and air quality for several possible growth and technology adoption scenarios. The growth scenarios are based on the high and low emissions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, A1FI and B1, respectively. The technological adoption scenarios include H2 fuel cell and H2 internal combustion engine options. The impacts are evaluated with the Community Atmospheric Model Chemistry global chemistry transport model (CAM-Chem. Higher resolution simulations focusing on the contiguous United States are also carried out with the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ regional chemistry transport model. For all scenarios future air quality improves with the adoption of a H2-based road transportation sector; however, the magnitude and type of improvement depend on the scenario. Model results show that the adoption of H2 fuel cells would decrease tropospheric burdens of ozone (7%, CO (14%, NOx (16%, soot (17%, sulfate aerosol (4%, and ammonium nitrate aerosol (12% in the A1FI scenario, and would decrease those of ozone (5%, CO (4%, NOx (11%, soot (7%, sulfate aerosol (4%, and ammonium nitrate aerosol (9% in the B1 scenario

Climate change, land use and land surveyors

OpenAIRE

van der Molen, P.; Mitchell, D.

2016-01-01

Research reveals that the land sector is a major emitter of greenhouse gases. But the land sector has also potential to reduce emissions. Different from other emission sectors like energy and transport, the land sector (in particular the rural area including forests) has the potential to also remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere through sequestration and storage. This requires land use, land use change and forestry to be managed with respect to climate change goals. Carbon storage has ...

A head-up display format for transport aircraft approach and landing

Science.gov (United States)

Bray, R. S.; Scott, B. C.

1981-01-01

An electronic flight-guidance display format was designed for use in evaluations of the collimated head-up display concept applied to transport aircraft landing. In the design process of iterative evaluation and modification, some general principles, or guidelines, applicable to electronic flight displays were suggested. The usefulness of an indication of instantaneous inertial flightpath was clearly demonstrated. Evaluator pilot acceptance of the unfamiliar display concepts was very positive when careful attention was given to indoctrination and training.

Transportation in the future : blind side of the oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schipper, L.

2002-01-01

The first oil embargo of 1974 and the oil crisis of 1979/1980 demonstrated that of all sectors, the transportation sector is the most threatened by abrupt changes in fuel prices. For that reason, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and member countries have strived to develop a good set of analytical tools for forecasting future energy demand in transportation. This presentation addressed issues regarding oil demand and explained why it may never be the same. Oil demand has been changed by the imposition of fuel economy standards in North America, voluntary agreements to limit fuel consumption in Europe, and the freight related component. Motor vehicle ownership is growing significantly in developing countries. Neither oil problems nor carbon dioxide emissions will slow that growth for a long time to come. Traffic congestion and pollution are major problems in most of the developing world. Therefore, policies to save oil or reduce carbon dioxide emissions should be integrated with strategies to improve transportation and clean the air in developing countries. New incentives may include clean vehicles, fuel efficiency, clean and low carbon fuels, and transportation planning. The paper also described how information technology, such as use of the Internet, is a low energy product that can boost economic activity and which in the future, may have a broader impact on transportation. It was concluded that while transportation energy is driven by economic growth, it can be impacted by higher prices and by energy policies. 16 figs

Involving Freight Transport Actors in Production of Knowledge - Experience with Future Workshop Methodology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jespersen, Per Homann; Drewes, Lise

2005-01-01

the experience and knowledge of actors in the freight transport sector are included directly in a scientific process in order to develop future and strategic studies. Future research is often produced as desktop research and presented as the results of scientists’ forecasting and scenario building...... in the format of a future workshop included freight transport stakeholders in the research process in order to produce knowledge meeting scientific quality criteria and at the same time in a form suitable for improving the problem solving capabilities of the participants....

Transport sensitivity studies for SITE-94: Time-dependent site-scale modelling of future glacial impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King-Clayton, L.; Smith, Paul

1996-10-01

The report details the methodology and preliminary results from the modelling of radionuclide transport from a hypothetical repository based at the Aespoe site in Sweden. The work complements and utilizes the results from regional-scale, variable density flow modelling by Provost, in which the groundwater flow field is time dependent, reflecting the impact of climate evolution over the next 130,000 years. The climate evolution include development of permafrost conditions and ice sheet advance and retreat. The results indicate that temporal changes in flow conditions owing to future climate changes have a significant effect on the transport of radionuclides from a repository. In all cases modelled with time-dependent boundary conditions, the greatest radionuclide fluxes occur towards the end of the main glacial periods, and correspond to periods of high groundwater discharge at the margin of the modelled ice sheets. Fluxes to the biosphere may, for limited periods (2000 years or less), be three times higher than those from the near field. The study provides a quantitative way of illustrating the possible effects of future glaciations on radionuclide transport from the repository. Such effects are likely to be significant in any potential siting area predicted to be affected by future periods of ice cover. 8 refs, 22 tabs, 119 figs

Improved land use classification from Landsat and Seasat satellite imagery registered to a common map base

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, J.

1981-01-01

In the case of Landsat Multispectral Scanner System (MSS) data, ambiguities in spectral signature can arise in urban areas. A study was initiated in the belief that Seasat digital SAR could help provide the spectral separability needed for a more accurate urban land use classification. A description is presented of the results of land use classifications performed on Landsat and preprocessed Seasat imagery that were registered to a common map base. The process of registering imagery and training site boundary coordinates to a common map has been reported by Clark (1980). It is found that preprocessed Seasat imagery provides signatures for urban land uses which are spectrally separable from Landsat signatures. This development appears to significantly improve land use classifications in an urban setting for class 12 (Commercial and Services), class 13 (Industrial), and class 14 (Transportation, Communications, and Utilities).

Specific Space Transportation Costs to GEO - Past, Present and Future

Science.gov (United States)

Koelle, Dietrich E.

2002-01-01

The largest share of space missions is going to the Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO); they have the highest commercial importance. The paper first shows the historic trend of specific transportation costs to GEO from 1963 to 2002. It started out with more than 500 000 /kg(2002-value) and has come down to 36 000 /kg. This reduction looks impressive, however, the reason is NOT improved technology or new techniques but solely the growth of GEO payloads`unit mass. The first GEO satellite in 1963 did have a mass of 36 kg mass (BoL) . This has grown to a weight of 1600 kg (average of all GEO satellites) in the year 2000. Mass in GEO after injection is used here instead of GTO mass since the GTO mass depends on the launch site latitude. The specific cost reduction is only due to the "law-of-scale", valid in the whole transportation business: the larger the payload, the lower the specific transportation cost. The paper shows the actual prices of launch services to GTO by the major launch vehicles. Finally the potential GEO transportation costs of future launch systems are evaluated. What is the potential reduction of specific transportation costs if reusable elements are introduced in future systems ? Examples show that cost reductions up to 75 % seem achievable - compared to actual costs - but only with launch systems optimized according to modern principles of cost engineering. 1. 53rd International Astronautical Congress, World Space Congress Houston 2. First Submission 3. Specific Space Transportation Costs to GEO - Past, Present and Future 4. KOELLE, D.E. 5. IAA.1.1 Launch Vehicles' Cost Engineering and Economic Competitiveness 6. D.E. Koelle; A.E. Goldstein 7. One overhead projector and screen 8. Word file attached 9. KOELLE I have approval to attend the Congress. I am not willing to present this paper at the IAC Public Outreach Program.

Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements. Thinking outside the box

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benndorf, R. [Federal Environment Agency, Bismarckplatz 1, D-1419 Berlin (Germany); Federici, S.; Somogyi, Z. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (Italy); Forner, C. [Center for International Forestry Research CIFOR, Jalan CIFOR Situ Gede, Bogor Barat 16680 (Indonesia); Pena, N. [Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, VA 22201 (United States); Rametsteiner, E. [IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria); Sanz, M.J. [Fundacion CEAM, Charles H. Darwin 14, S-46980 Paterna, Valencia (Spain)

2007-06-15

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely 'de-linking' LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change.

Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements: thinking outside the box

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benndorf, R. [Federal Environment Agency, Bismarckplatz 1, D-1419 Berlin (Germany); Federici, S. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (Italy); Forner, C. [Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Jalan CIFOR Situ Gede, Bogor Barat 16680 (Indonesia); Pena, N. [Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, VA 22201 (United States)]. E-mail: penan@pewclimate.org; Rametsteiner, E. [IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria); Sanz, M.J. [Fundacion CEAM, Charles H. Darwin 14, S-46980 Paterna, Valencia (Spain); Somogyi, Z. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (Italy)

2007-06-15

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely 'de-linking' LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change.

Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements: thinking outside the box

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benndorf, R.; Federici, S.; Forner, C.; Pena, N.; Rametsteiner, E.; Sanz, M.J.; Somogyi, Z.

2007-01-01

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely 'de-linking' LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change

Transport Disparities in a Crossborder Region. Case Study: The Land of Maramureş

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NICOLAE BOAR

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The Land of Maramureş is one of the most representative natural regions. It has become a cross-border region on a segment of the Romanian-Ukrainian border because of the evolution of human society. The placement of the present border on the material and spiritual convergent axis represented by the Tisa Valley (in 1920 determined a reorientation of the transport systems of the two Maramureş components. The transition from the planned socialist economy to the market-oriented one in 1990/1991 produced rapid changes both in the structure of the transport systems and in the orientation of the transportation flow. The new conditions allowed the appearance of the first tendencies to restore the Maramureş transport system. Still, the different ways chosen by the two countries (Romania and Ukraine in their relation with the European power centres created new barriers for these new tendencies.

Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nitin Kumar Tripathi

2013-07-01

Full Text Available This paper evaluates the possible impacts of climate change and land use change and its combined effects on soil loss and net soil loss (erosion and deposition in the Mae Nam Nan sub-catchment, Thailand. Future climate from two general circulation models (GCMs and a regional circulation model (RCM consisting of HadCM3, NCAR CSSM3 and PRECIS RCM ware downscaled using a delta change approach. Cellular Automata/Markov (CA_Markov model was used to characterize future land use. Soil loss modeling using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE and sedimentation modeling in Idrisi software were employed to estimate soil loss and net soil loss under direct impact (climate change, indirect impact (land use change and full range of impact (climate and land use change to generate results at a 10 year interval between 2020 and 2040. Results indicate that soil erosion and deposition increase or decrease, depending on which climate and land use scenarios are considered. The potential for climate change to increase soil loss rate, soil erosion and deposition in future periods was established, whereas considerable decreases in erosion are projected when land use is increased from baseline periods. The combined climate and land use change analysis revealed that land use planning could be adopted to mitigate soil erosion and deposition in the future, in conjunction with the projected direct impact of climate change.

Incorporating sustainable development objectives into land administration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Williamson, Ian; Enemark, Stig; Wallace, Jude

2006-01-01

Historically, land administration systems (LAS) were built to support land markets and land taxation systems. In developed countries, these systems constitute substantial infrastructure provided through government for the benefit of overall public administration, citizens and businesses. These sy......Historically, land administration systems (LAS) were built to support land markets and land taxation systems. In developed countries, these systems constitute substantial infrastructure provided through government for the benefit of overall public administration, citizens and businesses...... lay in incorporating market based instruments (MBI) and complex commodities into LAS and revitalization of land information through inventive Web based initiatives. The EGM developed a vision outlined in this paper for future LAS sufficiently flexible to adapt to this changing world of new technology...

Mars Scenario-Based Visioning: Logistical Optimization of Transportation Architectures

Science.gov (United States)

1999-01-01

The purpose of this conceptual design investigation is to examine transportation forecasts for future human Wu missions to Mars. - Scenario-Based Visioning is used to generate possible future demand projections. These scenarios are then coupled with availability, cost, and capacity parameters for indigenously designed Mars Transfer Vehicles (solar electric, nuclear thermal, and chemical propulsion types) and Earth-to-Orbit launch vehicles (current, future, and indigenous) to provide a cost-conscious dual-phase launch manifest to meet such future demand. A simulator named M-SAT (Mars Scenario Analysis Tool) is developed using this method. This simulation is used to examine three specific transportation scenarios to Mars: a limited "flaus and footprints" mission, a More ambitious scientific expedition similar to an expanded version of the Design Reference Mission from NASA, and a long-term colonization scenario. Initial results from the simulation indicate that chemical propulsion systems might be the architecture of choice for all three scenarios. With this mind, "what if' analyses were performed which indicated that if nuclear production costs were reduced by 30% for the colonization scenario, then the nuclear architecture would have a lower life cycle cost than the chemical. Results indicate that the most cost-effective solution to the Mars transportation problem is to plan for segmented development, this involves development of one vehicle at one opportunity and derivatives of that vehicle at subsequent opportunities.

Unlocking Land Values to Finance Urban Infrastructure : Land-Based Financing Options for Cities

OpenAIRE

George E. Peterson

2008-01-01

Raising capital to finance urban infrastructure is a challenge. One solution is to 'unlock' urban land values - such as by selling public lands to capture the gains in value created by investment in infrastructure projects. Land-based financing techniques are playing an increasingly important role in financing urban infrastructure in developing countries. They complement other capital fina...

Biomass-based energy carriers in the transportation sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johansson, Bengt.

1995-03-01

The purpose of this report is to study the technical and economic prerequisites to attain reduced carbon dioxide emissions through the use of biomass-based energy carriers in the transportation sector, and to study other environmental impacts resulting from an increased use of biomass-based energy carriers. CO 2 emission reduction per unit arable and forest land used for biomass production (kg CO 2 /ha,year) and costs for CO 2 emission reduction (SEK/kg CO 2 ) are estimated for the substitution of gasoline and diesel with rape methyl ester, biogas from lucerne, ethanol from wheat and ethanol, methanol, hydrogen and electricity from Salix and logging residues. Of the studied energy carriers, those based on Salix provide the largest CO 2 emission reduction. In a medium long perspective, the costs for CO 2 emission reduction seem to be lowest for methanol from Salix and logging residues. The use of fuel cell vehicles, using methanol or hydrogen as energy carriers, can in a longer perspective provide more energy efficient utilization of biomass for transportation than the use of internal combustion engine vehicles. 136 refs, 12 figs, 25 tabs

Image-based change estimation for land cover and land use monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Jeremy Webb; C. Kenneth Brewer; Nicholas Daniels; Chris Maderia; Randy Hamilton; Mark Finco; Kevin A. Megown; Andrew J. Lister

2012-01-01

The Image-based Change Estimation (ICE) project resulted from the need to provide estimates and information for land cover and land use change over large areas. The procedure uses Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot locations interpreted using two different dates of imagery from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP). In order to determine a suitable...

Creating the Synergy of Land Use, Transport, Energy and Environment Elements towards Climate Change Co-benefits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ariva Sugandi Permana

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Land use, transport, energy consumption and air quality issues in a city are interconnected and therefore form a nexus. This study attempts to analyze this nexus by identifying the magnitude and quality of the links among the elements. The study was undertaken in Bandung City, Indonesia by analyzing the concen-tricity of land use of the city, computing traffic loads at some primary radial trunk roads towards city center, assessing transport energy and air quality in the study area. Analysis on the present linearity of the nexus was also conducted by acquiring relevant secondary data as well as information from the separate study by the first authors in the same city. A quantitative analysis was undertaken to corroborate the rela-tionships among linear connections of the elements. The result exhibits that the interconnections among elements in the nexus do exist. It also shows that the interconnection of the nexus i.e. land use, transport, energy consumption and air quality is linear and it requires a synergistic efforts to enhance the strategies towards climate change co-benefits. By looking at the nexus as a policy arena, the study proposes prospec-tive policy directions that could lead to synergize co-benefits of climate change and accordingly contribute to climate change adaptation of the city and the reduction of climate change impacts.

Intelligent Transportation Control based on Proactive Complex Event Processing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Yongheng

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Complex Event Processing (CEP has become the key part of Internet of Things (IoT. Proactive CEP can predict future system states and execute some actions to avoid unwanted states which brings new hope to intelligent transportation control. In this paper, we propose a proactive CEP architecture and method for intelligent transportation control. Based on basic CEP technology and predictive analytic technology, a networked distributed Markov decision processes model with predicting states is proposed as sequential decision model. A Q-learning method is proposed for this model. The experimental evaluations show that this method works well when used to control congestion in in intelligent transportation systems.

Marine Transportation in Turkey and A Future Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

İsmet BALIK

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Maritime transportation is one of the indicator and determining sectors of state economies. It’s shaped in parallel with the economic structure of the coastal countries in increasing or decreasing volumes. Especially with a significant advantage in international trade, sea transport is increasingly been competitive with other modes of transport. Considering the geographic location of Turkey, evaluating from criticial perspectives and developing meaningful proposals for effective solutions to such issues as strenghtening the alternative routes in seaborne trade and privitazing the ports that are to make further technological investments will enable to take effective and proactive measures concerning the future of this industry. In this study, the existing and likely expansions in the structure of shipping industry both in Turkey and in the world have been examined. In this examination, certain secondary data sets, such as the relevant literature and the recent statistical data, have been used.

Mars: Periglacial Morphology and Implications for Future Landing Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Heldmann, Jennifer L.; Schurmeier, Lauren; McKay, Christopher; Davila, Alfonso; Stoker, Carol; Marinova, Margarita; Wilhelm, Mary Beth

2015-01-01

At the Mars Phoenix landing site and in much of the Martian northern plains, there is ice-cemented ground beneath a layer of dry permafrost. Unlike most permafrost on Earth, though, this ice is not liquid at any time of year. However, in past epochs at higher obliquity the surface conditions during summer may have resulted in warmer conditions and possible melting. This situation indicates that the ice-cemented ground in the north polar plains is likely to be a candidate for the most recently habitable place on Mars as near-surface ice likely provided adequate water activity approximately 5 Myr ago. The high elevation Dry Valleys of Antarctica provide the best analog on Earth of Martian ground ice. These locations are the only places on Earth where ice-cemented ground is found beneath dry permafrost. The Dry Valleys are a hyper-arid polar desert environment and in locations above 1500 m elevation, such as University Valley, air temperatures do not exceed 0 C. Thus, similarly to Mars, liquid water is largely absent here and instead the hydrologic cycle is dominated by frozen ice and vapor phase processes such as sublimation. These conditions make the high elevation Dry Valleys a key Mars analog location where periglacial processes and geomorphic features can be studied in situ. This talk will focus on studies of University Valley as a Mars analog for periglacial morphology and ice stability. We will review a landing site selection study encompassing this information gleaned from the Antarctic terrestrial analog studies plus Mars spacecraft data analysis to identify candidate landing sites for a future mission to search for life on Mars.

Safe and Secure Transportation of Radioactive Materials in Pakistan and Future Challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muneer, Muhammad; Ejaz, Asad

2016-01-01

PNRA is the sole organization in the country responsible to regulate all matters pertaining to ionizing radiations. For the safety of transport of radioactive material in the country, PNRA has adopted IAEA TS-R-1 as a national regulation. To cover the security aspects and emergency situations, if any, during the transportation of radioactive material, PNRA has issued the regulatory guide on ‘Transportation of Radioactive Material by Road in Pakistan’. In Pakistan, low to medium activity radioactive sources are transported from one place to another by road for the purpose of industrial radiography, well logging, medical application, etc. According to national policy, sealed radioactive sources of half life greater than 1 year and with initial activity of 100 GBq or more imported in the country are required to be returned to country of origin (exported) after its use. Although the activities related to transport of radioactive material remained safe and secure and no major accident/incident has been reported so far, however, the improvement/enhancement in the regulatory infrastructure is a continuous process. In future, more challenges are expected to be faced in the safety of transport packages. This paper will describe the steps taken by PNRA for the safety and security of transport of radioactive material in the country and future challenges. (author)

LandCaRe-DSS - model based tools for irrigation management under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Dotterweich, Markus; Wilkinson, Kristina; Cassel, Martin; Scherzer, Jörg; Köstner, Barbara; Berg, Michael; Grocholl, Jürgen

2015-04-01

Climate change is expected to have a strong influence on agricultural systems in the future. It will be important for decision makers and stakeholders to assess the impact of climate change at the farm and regional level in order to facilitate and maintain a sustainable and profitable farming infrastructure. Climate change impact studies have to incorporate aspects of uncertainty and the underlying knowledge is constantly expanding and improving. Decision support systems (DSS) with flexible data bases are therefore a useful tool for management and planning: different models can be applied under varying boundary conditions within a conceptual framework and the results can be used e.g. to show the effects of climate change scenarios and different land management options. Within this project, the already existing LandCaRe DSS will be further enhanced and improved. A first prototype had been developed for two regions in eastern Germany, mainly to show the effects of climate change on yields, nutrient balances and farm economy. The new model version will be tested and applied for a region in north-western Germany (Landkreis Uelzen) where arable land makes up about 50% of overall land-use and where 80 % of the arable land is already irrigated. For local decision makers, it will be important to know how water demand and water availability are likely to change in the future: Is more water needed for irrigation? Is more water actually available for irrigation? Will the existing limits for ground water withdrawal be sufficient for farmers to irrigate their crops? How can the irrigation water demand be influenced by land management options like the use of different crops and varieties or different farming and irrigation techniques? The main tasks of the project are (I) the integration of an improved irrigation model, (II) the development of a standardized interface to apply the DSS in different regions, (III) to optimize the graphical user interface, (IV) to transfer and

Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL

2009-12-03

Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

Travel and transport

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bill, Jan; Roesdahl, Else

2007-01-01

On the interrelationship between travel, transport and society; on land transport, sea and river transport, and on winter transport;  on the related technologies and their developments......On the interrelationship between travel, transport and society; on land transport, sea and river transport, and on winter transport;  on the related technologies and their developments...

Forecasts of county-level land uses under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

David N. Wear

2011-01-01

Accurately forecasting future forest conditions and the implications for ecosystem services depends on understanding land use dynamics. In support of the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, we forecast changes in land uses for the coterminous United States in response to three scenarios. Our land use models forecast urbanization in response to the...

Coal Mining and Coal Seam Gas on Gomeroi country: Sacred lands, economic futures and shifting alliances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Norman, Heidi

2016-01-01

North western NSW has seen a host of interest groups working in alliance opposing coal and coal seam gas mining. These groups - farmers, residents and environmentalists share concerns about the impact on the unique black soil and aquifer, of fossil fuel more broadly. While these shared alliances across class, gender and generations are emergent, Aboriginal citizens are uniquely placed in this contest over land, environment and resources. This paper sets out to show the historical and contemporary significance of the place of Aboriginal people in the debate over land use, arguing that, for the first time in history, Aboriginal worlds are central to community futures. In this space, new relationships are being forged and new discourse is required to comprehend the complex position Aboriginal citizens have as custodians of place and at the same time, the responsibility to provide for families and communities, otherwise excluded from the prevailing modern economy. With reference to the history of both relationship to land and land usage over Gomeroi country, and drawing on ethnographic along with archival research, this article seeks to contribute to a critical understanding of Aboriginal people's dealings in relation to their land, their cultural and economic interests with in an emerging regional coal economy, and in turn how they are redefining the context for energy resource extraction, and energy policy. - Highlights: • Aboriginal worlds are central to community futures in Australia. • Prospecting for coal and coal seam gas is forcing Aboriginal land holders into new relationships. • The nexus between the coal economy & Aboriginal self-determination is deeply contested. • New discourses are emerging to comprehend the custodianship of place in the context of mining.

Multiple greenhouse gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Stocker, Benjamin; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri, Xu-Ri; Prentice, Colin

2013-04-01

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHG) CO2, CH4, and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere. The sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since preindustrial times and leads to multiple feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the climate system. The strength of these feedbacks is determined by (i) the sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 and (ii) the greenhouse warming potential of the respective gas. Here, we quantify feedbacks from CO2, CH4, N2O, and land surface albedo in a consistent and comprehensive framework based on a large set of simulations conducted with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The modeled sensitivities of CH4 and N2O emissions are tested, demonstrating that independent data for non-land (anthropogenic, oceanic, etc.) GHG emissions, combined with simulated emissions from natural and agricultural land reproduces historical atmospheric budgets within their uncertainties. 21st-century scenarios for climate, land use change and reactive nitrogen inputs (Nr) are applied to investigate future GHG emissions. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O emissions increase from 9.0 by today to 9.8-11.1 (RCP 2.6) and 14.2-17.0 TgN2O-N/yr by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Without anthropogenic Nr inputs, the amplification is reduced by 24-32%. Soil CH4 emissions increase from 221 at present to 228-245 in RCP 2.6 and to 303-343 TgCH4/yr in RCP 8.5, and the land becomes a net source of C by 2100 AD. Feedbacks from land imply an additional warming of 1.3-1.5°C by 2300 in RCP 8.5, 0.4-0.5°C of which are due to N2O and CH4. The combined effect of multiple GHGs and albedo represents an increasingly positive total feedback to anthropogenic climate change with positive individual feedbacks from CH4, N2O, and albedo outweighing the diminishing negative feedback from CO2

Which energy source for road transport in the future? A comparison of battery, hybrid and fuel cell vehicles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mierlo, J. van; Maggetto, G.; Lataire, Ph.

2006-01-01

The hydrogen era is foreseen following the European research programme in a time horizon of 2020-2040. But there will be clearly a choice to be made between an electron economy (direct use of the produced electricity) and the so called 'hydrogen economy' which leads to the introduction of an intermediate hydrogen production, transport and distribution process before the final use in an electrical process. This paper considers only passenger car and delivery vans applications. In this field a big time gap is to be filled between the situation today, the occurrence of oil shortage in a quite short future and this time horizon 2020-2040. Today's intermediate solutions are clearly based on hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles. The performances of these solutions are putting a lot of questions on the necessity of a hydrogen economy for future transportation. The paper discusses performances of hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles in comparison of the future hydrogen fuel cell based systems which are now in R and D phase and a very beginning of field demonstration

Well-To-Wheel Analysis of Solar Produced Hydrogen for Future Transportation Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Remo Felder; Anton Meier

2006-01-01

Hydrogen production, transport, and usage in future passenger car transportation systems is compared for selected solar and conventional hydrogen production technologies using a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) approach. Solar scenarios show distinctly lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than fossil-based scenarios. For example, using solar produced hydrogen in fuel cell cars reduces life cycle GHG emissions by 75% compared to advanced gasoline vehicles and by more than 90% if car and road infrastructure are not considered. Utilization of solar produced hydrogen has the potential of reducing fossil energy requirements by a factor of up to 10 compared to conventional technologies. Environmental impacts are associated with the construction of the steel-intensive infrastructure for concentrating solar power plants due to mineral and fossil resource consumption as well as discharge of pollutants related to today's non-sustainable steel production technology. (authors)

Well-To-Wheel Analysis of Solar Produced Hydrogen for Future Transportation Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Remo Felder; Anton Meier [Solar Technology Laboratory, Paul Scherrer Institut, CH-5232 Villigen PSI, (Switzerland)

2006-07-01

Hydrogen production, transport, and usage in future passenger car transportation systems is compared for selected solar and conventional hydrogen production technologies using a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) approach. Solar scenarios show distinctly lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than fossil-based scenarios. For example, using solar produced hydrogen in fuel cell cars reduces life cycle GHG emissions by 75% compared to advanced gasoline vehicles and by more than 90% if car and road infrastructure are not considered. Utilization of solar produced hydrogen has the potential of reducing fossil energy requirements by a factor of up to 10 compared to conventional technologies. Environmental impacts are associated with the construction of the steel-intensive infrastructure for concentrating solar power plants due to mineral and fossil resource consumption as well as discharge of pollutants related to today's non-sustainable steel production technology. (authors)

Spin-polarized transport properties of a pyridinium-based molecular spintronics device

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, J.; Xu, B.; Qin, Z.

2018-05-01

By applying a first-principles approach based on non-equilibrium Green's functions combined with density functional theory, the transport properties of a pyridinium-based "radical-π-radical" molecular spintronics device are investigated. The obvious negative differential resistance (NDR) and spin current polarization (SCP) effect, and abnormal magnetoresistance (MR) are obtained. Orbital reconstruction is responsible for novel transport properties such as that the MR increases with bias and then decreases and that the NDR being present for both parallel and antiparallel magnetization configurations, which may have future applications in the field of molecular spintronics.

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

Theoretical and Numerical Modeling of Transport of Land Use-Specific Fecal Source Identifiers

Science.gov (United States)

Bombardelli, F. A.; Sirikanchana, K. J.; Bae, S.; Wuertz, S.

2008-12-01

Microbial contamination in coastal and estuarine waters is of particular concern to public health officials. In this work, we advocate that well-formulated and developed mathematical and numerical transport models can be combined with modern molecular techniques in order to predict continuous concentrations of microbial indicators under diverse scenarios of interest, and that they can help in source identification of fecal pollution. As a proof of concept, we present initially the theory, numerical implementation and validation of one- and two-dimensional numerical models aimed at computing the distribution of fecal source identifiers in water bodies (based on Bacteroidales marker DNA sequences) coming from different land uses such as wildlife, livestock, humans, dogs or cats. These models have been developed to allow for source identification of fecal contamination in large bodies of water. We test the model predictions using diverse velocity fields and boundary conditions. Then, we present some preliminary results of an application of a three-dimensional water quality model to address the source of fecal contamination in the San Pablo Bay (SPB), United States, which constitutes an important sub-embayment of the San Francisco Bay. The transport equations for Bacteroidales include the processes of advection, diffusion, and decay of Bacteroidales. We discuss the validation of the developed models through comparisons of numerical results with field campaigns developed in the SPB. We determine the extent and importance of the contamination in the bay for two decay rates obtained from field observations, corresponding to total host-specific Bacteroidales DNA and host-specific viable Bacteroidales cells, respectively. Finally, we infer transport conditions in the SPB based on the numerical results, characterizing the fate of outflows coming from the Napa, Petaluma and Sonoma rivers.

The changing patterns of cropland conversion to built-up land in China from 1987 to 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Ju, H.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, X.; Wu, W.; Wang, X.; Zuo, L.

2017-12-01

With the rapid urbanization, industrialization and rural area construction in China, the expansions of built-up land encroached upon a large amount of cropland, and thus placed great challenges on national food security. Previous studies have primarily been focused on the whole effects of built-up land expansion, however, the individual effect of different types of built-up land (urban areas, rural settlements and industrial/transportation land) on cropland loss remains unclear. Based on land use maps interpreted from remote sensing imagery in 1987-2010, we illustrated the spatio-temporal patterns of the speed and the structure of cropland conversion to built-up land. Then, we quantitatively measured the influence of different built-up land on cropland loss from three aspects: the contribution of built-up land expansion to cropland loss, the dependence of built-up land expansion on cropland loss and the conversion's impacts on cropland quality. It was found 42,822 km2 of cropland were converted into built-up land in China, accounting for 43.8% of total cropland loss during 1987-2010. Before 2000, the expansion of rural settlements had the largest influence on cropland loss, however, urban growth showed a greater impact on cropland loss after 2000. Although the effects of rural settlements expansion decreased, rural settlements still saw the highest percentage of the loss of traditional cropland which is generally in high quality. In addition, the impacts of industrial/transportation land expansion increased dramatically and was mainly distributed in major food production regions. These changes were closely related to the economic restructuring, urban-rural transformation and government policies in China. These findings demonstrate that Chinese cropland conservation in both amount and quality should focus not only on finding a reasonable urbanization mode, but also solving the "hollowing village" problem and balancing the industrial transformations in the future.

Land quality, sustainable development and environmental degradation in agricultural districts: A computational approach based on entropy indexes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zambon, Ilaria; Colantoni, Andrea; Carlucci, Margherita; Morrow, Nathan; Sateriano, Adele; Salvati, Luca

2017-01-01

Land Degradation (LD) in socio-environmental systems negatively impacts sustainable development paths. This study proposes a framework to LD evaluation based on indicators of diversification in the spatial distribution of sensitive land. We hypothesize that conditions for spatial heterogeneity in a composite index of land sensitivity are more frequently associated to areas prone to LD than spatial homogeneity. Spatial heterogeneity is supposed to be associated with degraded areas that act as hotspots for future degradation processes. A diachronic analysis (1960–2010) was performed at the Italian agricultural district scale to identify environmental factors associated with spatial heterogeneity in the degree of land sensitivity to degradation based on the Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (ESAI). In 1960, diversification in the level of land sensitivity measured using two common indexes of entropy (Shannon's diversity and Pielou's evenness) increased significantly with the ESAI, indicating a high level of land sensitivity to degradation. In 2010, surface area classified as “critical” to LD was the highest in districts with diversification in the spatial distribution of ESAI values, confirming the hypothesis formulated above. Entropy indexes, based on observed alignment with the concept of LD, constitute a valuable base to inform mitigation strategies against desertification. - Highlights: • Spatial heterogeneity is supposed to be associated with degraded areas. • Entropy indexes can inform mitigation strategies against desertification. • Assessing spatial diversification in the degree of land sensitivity to degradation. • Mediterranean rural areas have an evident diversity in agricultural systems. • A diachronic analysis carried out at the Italian agricultural district scale.

Land quality, sustainable development and environmental degradation in agricultural districts: A computational approach based on entropy indexes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zambon, Ilaria, E-mail: ilaria.zambon@unitus.it [Department of Agricultural and Forestry scieNcEs (DAFNE), Tuscia University, Via S. Camillo de Lellis, I-01100 Viterbo (Italy); Colantoni, Andrea [Department of Agricultural and Forestry scieNcEs (DAFNE), Tuscia University, Via S. Camillo de Lellis, I-01100 Viterbo (Italy); Carlucci, Margherita [Department of Social and Economic Science, University of Rome La Sapienza, Piazzale A. Moro 5, I-00185 Rome (Italy); Morrow, Nathan [Tulane University, Payson Program in International Development at the School of Law, New Orleans (United States); Sateriano, Adele; Salvati, Luca [Italian Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA-RPS), Via della Navicella 2-4, I-00184 Rome (Italy)

2017-05-15

Land Degradation (LD) in socio-environmental systems negatively impacts sustainable development paths. This study proposes a framework to LD evaluation based on indicators of diversification in the spatial distribution of sensitive land. We hypothesize that conditions for spatial heterogeneity in a composite index of land sensitivity are more frequently associated to areas prone to LD than spatial homogeneity. Spatial heterogeneity is supposed to be associated with degraded areas that act as hotspots for future degradation processes. A diachronic analysis (1960–2010) was performed at the Italian agricultural district scale to identify environmental factors associated with spatial heterogeneity in the degree of land sensitivity to degradation based on the Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (ESAI). In 1960, diversification in the level of land sensitivity measured using two common indexes of entropy (Shannon's diversity and Pielou's evenness) increased significantly with the ESAI, indicating a high level of land sensitivity to degradation. In 2010, surface area classified as “critical” to LD was the highest in districts with diversification in the spatial distribution of ESAI values, confirming the hypothesis formulated above. Entropy indexes, based on observed alignment with the concept of LD, constitute a valuable base to inform mitigation strategies against desertification. - Highlights: • Spatial heterogeneity is supposed to be associated with degraded areas. • Entropy indexes can inform mitigation strategies against desertification. • Assessing spatial diversification in the degree of land sensitivity to degradation. • Mediterranean rural areas have an evident diversity in agricultural systems. • A diachronic analysis carried out at the Italian agricultural district scale.

Potential Impact of Land Use Change on Future Regional Climate in the Southeastern U.S.: Reforestation and Crop Land Conversion

Science.gov (United States)

Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A. P.; Liu, P.; Tsigaridis, Konstantinos; Hu, Y.; Nenes, A.; Stone, B.; Russell, A. G.

2013-01-01

The impact of future land use and land cover changes (LULCC) on regional and global climate is one of the most challenging aspects of understanding anthropogenic climate change. We study the impacts of LULCC on regional climate in the southeastern U.S. by downscaling the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model E to the regional scale using a spectral nudging technique with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Climate-relevant meteorological fields are compared for two southeastern U.S. LULCC scenarios to the current land use/cover for four seasons of the year 2050. In this work it is shown that reforestation of cropland in the southeastern U.S. tends to warm surface air by up to 0.5 K, while replacing forested land with cropland tends to cool the surface air by 0.5 K. Processes leading to this response are investigated and sensitivity analyses conducted. The sensitivity analysis shows that results are most sensitive to changes in albedo and the stomatal resistance. Evaporative cooling of croplands also plays an important role in regional climate. Implications of LULCC on air quality are discussed. Summertime warming associated with reforestation of croplands could increase the production of some secondary pollutants, while a higher boundary layer will decrease pollutant concentrations; wintertime warming may decrease emissions from biomass burning from wood stoves

Land use implications of future energy system trajectories—The case of the UK 2050 Carbon Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konadu, D. Dennis; Mourão, Zenaida Sobral; Allwood, Julian M.; Richards, Keith S.; Kopec, Grant; McMahon, Richard; Fenner, Richard

2015-01-01

The UK's 2008 Climate Change Act sets a legally binding target for reducing territorial greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, relative to 1990 levels. Four pathways to achieve this target have been developed by the Department of Energy and Climate Change, with all pathways requiring increased us of bioenergy. A significant amount of this could be indigenously sourced from crops, but will increased domestic production of energy crops conflict with other agricultural priorities? To address this question, a coupled analysis of the UK energy system and land use has been developed. The two systems are connected by the production of bioenergy, and are projected forwards in time under the energy pathways, accounting for various constraints on land use for agriculture and ecosystem services. The results show different combinations of crop yield and compositions for the pathways lead to the appropriation of between 7% and 61% of UK's agricultural land for bioenergy production. This could result in competition for land for food production and other land uses, as well as indirect land use change in other countries due to an increase in bioenergy imports. Consequently, the potential role of bioenergy in achieving UK emissions reduction targets may face significant deployment challenges. - Highlights: • The Carbon Plan could result in significant land use change for bioenergy by 2050. • Higher Nuclear; less efficiency pathway has the highest land use change impact. • Higher Renewables; more energy efficiency pathway has the lowest land use change impact. • Transport decarbonisation via biofuels has the highest land use change impacts. • At current deployment rate only Higher Renewables pathway projections is achievable.

ANALYISIS OF TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND TRANSPORTATION POLICIES IN TURKEY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Payıdar AKGÜNGÖR

2004-03-01

Full Text Available Transportation systems have to be considered and analysed as a whole while transportation demand, becoming as a natural outcome of socioeconomic and socio-cultural structure, is being evaluated. It is desired that transportation system, which will be selected for both passenger and freight transport, should be rapid, economic, safe, causing least harm to environment and appropriate for the conditions of a country. However, it is difficult for a transportation system to have all these properties. Every transportation system has advantages and disadvantages over each other. Therefore, comprehensive plans for future periods have to be prepared and how the sources of the country should be reasonably distributed among transportation systems must be investigated. Also, transportation plans have to be prepared to get coordinated operations among transportation systems while great investments are instituted in the entire country. There is no doubt that it is possible with combined transportation instead of concentration on one transportation system. Transportation policies in Turkey should be questioned since the level of highway transportation usage reaches to 95 % and level of sea transportation usage drops to less than 1 % in spite of being surrounded with sea in three sides of our land. In this paper, transportation systems and transportation policies in Turkey are evaluated in general and problems are analysed. Proposals are presented for the solutions of these problems.

A Conceptual Model for Delineating Land Management Units (LMUs Using Geographical Object-Based Image Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deniz Gerçek

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Land management and planning is crucial for present and future use of land and the sustainability of land resources. Physical, biological and cultural characteristics of land can be used to define Land Management Units (LMUs that aid in decision making for managing land and communicating information between different research and application domains. This study aims to describe the classification of ecologically relevant land units that are suitable for land management, planning and conservation purposes. Relying on the idea of strong correlation between landform and potential landcover, a conceptual model for creating Land Management Units (LMUs from topographic data and biophysical information is presented. The proposed method employs a multi-level object-based classification of Digital Terrain Models (DTMs to derive landform units. The sensitivity of landform units to changes in segmentation scale is examined, and the outcome of the landform classification is evaluated. Landform classes are then aggregated with landcover information to produce ecologically relevant landform/landcover assemblages. These conceptual units that constitute a framework of connected entities are finally enriched given available socio-economic information e.g., land use, ownership, protection status, etc. to generate LMUs. LMUs attached to a geographic database enable the retrieval of information at various levels to support decision making for land management at various scales. LMUs that are created present a basis for conservation and management in a biodiverse area in the Black Sea region of Turkey.

Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in Mancha Oriental (Spain)

OpenAIRE

M. Pulido-Velazquez; S. Peña-Haro; A. Garcia-Prats; A. F. Mocholi-Almudever; L. Henriquez-Dole; H. Macian-Sorribes; A. Lopez-Nicolas

2014-01-01

Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation, as various and complex interactions in the hydrological cycle take part. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands (global change). Changes in future climate an...

Efficient Mobility Summit: Transportation and the Future of Dynamic Mobility Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2015-12-01

On October 27, 2015, The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) brought together local and national thought leaders to discuss the convergence of connectivity, vehicle automation, and transportation infrastructure investments at the Future Energy Efficient Mobility Workshop. The half-day workshop was held in conjunction with the Colorado Department of Transportation's (CDOT) Transportation Matters Summit and featured four panel sessions that showcased perspectives on efficient mobility from federal and state agencies, automakers and their suppliers, transportation data providers, and freight companies. This summary provides highlights from the meeting's exchanges of ideas and existing applications. Transportation's (CDOT) Transportation Matters Summit and featured four panel sessions that showcased perspectives on efficient mobility from federal and state agencies, automakers and their suppliers, transportation data providers, and freight companies. This summary provides highlights from the meeting's exchanges of ideas and existing applications.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

Science.gov (United States)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

2017-12-01

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Integral Transportation Systems in Military Transport Aircraft Supply

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dražen Kovačević

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Supply of goods, equipment and soldiers by militwy transportaircraft can serve as a support to airborne landing operation,support to encircled forces, and support to forces leadinga gue1rilla war. Transport aircraft are designed in such a wayas to be able to cany containers, pallets, most of land vehiclesand helicopters. Militwy transport aircraft can be grouped intothose that were originally designed for military transp01t andthose that are modified civilian aircraft and helicopters. Supplypallets can be wooden, metal, can be airdropped in "taxiing","low-flight", and can also be fitted with a parachute or"retrorocket" for reducing the ground impact. Pallets canamong other things carry liquids, heavy combat and ca1rier vehicles,artillery and rocket weapons and valious containers.Pallets are usually pe1manently deformed at ground impact.Nowadays, high precision of airdrop has been achieved. Containersare used to carry various equipment, food, fue~ weapons,ammunition etc. It is to be expected that the containers,wmoured combat and other vehicles will be redesigned so asto provide more efficient transport and fast a!Tangement ofhigh-mobility units, whereas the form of the future militarytransport aircraft will not undergo substantial changes. By adjustingand standardising the transporlation vehicles, integraltransportation means and cwgo, the overall combat efficiencywill be increased, the a~rangement time especially shortenedand the air supply safety increased.

Evaluating Hydrological Response of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico) with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) Tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize potential hydrologic impacts from future urban gro...

Autonomous vehicles:challenges, opportunities, and future implications for transportation policies

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Saeed Asadi Bagloee; Madjid Tavana; Mohsen Asadi; Tracey Oliver

2016-01-01

This study investigates the challenges and opportunities pertaining to transportation policies that may arise as a result of emerging autonomous vehicle (AV) technologies. AV technologies can decrease the trans-portation cost and increase accessibility to low-income households and persons with mobility issues. This emerg-ing technology also has far-reaching applications and implications beyond all current expectations. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the relevant literature and explores a broad spectrum of issues from safety to machine ethics. An indispensable part of a prospective AV development is communication over cars and infrastructure (connected vehicles). A major knowledge gap exists in AV technology with respect to routing behaviors. Connected-vehicle technology provides a great opportunity to imple-ment an efficient and intelligent routing system. To this end, we propose a conceptual navigation model based on a fleet of AVs that are centrally dispatched over a network seeking system optimization. This study contributes to the literature on two fronts: (i) it attempts to shed light on future opportunities as well as possible hurdles associated with AV technology;and (ii) it conceptualizes a navigation model for the AV which leads to highly efficient traffic circulations.

Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Sebastian Martinuzzi; Gregorio I. Gavier-Pizarro; Ariel E. Lugo; Volker C. Radeloff

2015-01-01

Rapid global changes due to changing land use, climate, and non-native species are altering environmental conditions, resulting in more novel communities with unprecedented species combinations. Understanding how future anthropogenic changes may affect novelty in ecosystems is important to advance environmental management and ecological research in the Anthropocene....

A Comparison of Vacancy Dynamics between Growing and Shrinking Cities Using the Land Transformation Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaekyung Lee

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Every city seeks opportunities to spur economic developments and, depending on its type, vacant land can be seen as a potential threat or an opportunity to achieve these developments. Although vacant land exists in all cities, the causes and effects of changes in vacant land can differ. Growing cities may have more vacant land than shrinking cities because of large scale annexation. Meanwhile, depopulation and economic downturn may increase the total amount of vacant and abandoned properties. Despite various causes of increase and decrease of vacant land, the ability to predict future vacancy patterns—where future vacant parcels may occur—could be a critical test to set up appropriate development strategies and land use policies, especially in shrinking cities, to manage urban decline and regeneration efforts more wisely. This study compares current and future vacancy patterns of a growing city (Fort Worth, TX, USA and a shrinking city (Chicago, IL, USA, by employing the Land Transformation Model (LTM to predict for future vacant lands. This research predicts and produces possible vacancy pattern scenarios by 2020 and deciphers the ranking of determinants of vacant land in each city type. The outcomes of this study indicate that the LTM can be useful for simulating vacancy patterns and the causes of vacancy vary in both growing and shrinking cities. Socio-economic factors such as unemployment rate and household income are powerful determinants of vacancy in a growing city, while physical and transportation-related conditions such as proximity to highways, vehicle accessibility, or building conditions show a stronger influence on increasing vacant land in a shrinking city.

Environmentally sustainable transport in the CEI countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thaler, R.; Wiederkehr, P.

2004-01-01

Moving people and freight in an environmentally sustainable manner that reduces environmental pollution and health hazards is a key challenge for transport and environment policies in Europe. Present mobility patterns of passenger and freight transport in Central and Eastern Europe do not correspond to the objectives of sustainable development. This paper presents the results of a transport futures study for the CEI region as a whole using backcasting methodology with long-term sustainability criteria to be met by 2030. Achieving environmentally sustainable transport (EST) doesn't mean less transport and mobility than we have today, but it means primarily maintaining a balanced modal split that results in less environmental and health impacts than it would be under projected future trends. Rail, trams, busses and new forms of flexible inter-modal public transport mobility would have to take a large share and rail transport for passenger and freight as well as inland shipping would have to be nearly doubled by 2030 while road freight could still increase if it is based on alternative fuels reducing its impacts. Technological advancements for passenger cars and lorries, fuels and infrastructure will play an important part to achieve EST, but also ''smart'' mobility management (e.g. transport avoidance, increasing load factors and modal shift), innovative mobility services and freight logistics would be critical. The implementation of these policies and strategies will require coherent and comprehensive packages of instruments and measures, including: economic instruments, regulatory instruments, changes in infrastructure investment, mobility management, information and education programmes as well as better integration of land use, transport and environment policies. Realising EST will provide new opportunities for businesses to develop and invest in innovative solutions for passenger and freight transport. Overall, achieving EST would constitute a net benefit for

Land Data Assimilation of Satellite-Based Soil Moisture Products Using the Land Information System Over the NLDAS Domain

Science.gov (United States)

Mocko, David M.; Kumar, S. V.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Tian, Y.

2011-01-01

This presentation will include results from data assimilation simulations using the NASA-developed Land Information System (LIS). Using the ensemble Kalman filter in LIS, two satellite-based soil moisture products from the AMSR-E instrument were assimilated, one a NASA-based product and the other from the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM). The domain and land-surface forcing data from these simulations were from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase-2, over the period 2002-2008. The Noah land-surface model, version 3.2, was used during the simulations. Changes to estimates of land surface states, such as soil moisture, as well as changes to simulated runoff/streamflow will be presented. Comparisons over the NLDAS domain will also be made to two global reference evapotranspiration (ET) products, one an interpolated product based on FLUXNET tower data and the other a satellite- based algorithm from the MODIS instrument. Results of an improvement metric show that assimilating the LPRM product improved simulated ET estimates while the NASA-based soil moisture product did not.

Impact of a future H2 transportation on atmospheric pollution in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Popa, M. E.; Segers, A. J.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Krol, M. C.; Visschedijk, A. J. H.; Schaap, M.; Röckmann, T.

2015-07-01

Hydrogen (H2) is being explored as a fuel for passenger vehicles; it can be used in fuel cells to power electric motors or burned in internal combustion engines. In order to evaluate the potential influence of a future H2-based road transportation on the regional air quality in Europe, we implemented H2 in the atmospheric transport and chemistry model LOTOS-EUROS. We simulated the present and future (2020) air quality, using emission scenarios with different proportions of H2 vehicles and different H2 leakage rates. The reference future scenario does not include H2 vehicles, and assumes that all present and planned European regulations for emissions are fully implemented. We find that, in general, the air quality in 2020 is significantly improved compared to the current situation in all scenarios, with and without H2 cars. In the future scenario without H2 cars, the pollution is reduced due to the strict European regulations: annually averaged CO, NOx and PM2.5 over the model domain decrease by 15%, 30% and 20% respectively. The additional improvement brought by replacing 50% or 100% of traditionally-fueled vehicles by H2 vehicles is smaller in absolute terms. If 50% of vehicles are using H2, the CO, NOx and PM2.5 decrease by 1%, 10% and 1% respectively, compared to the future scenario without H2 cars. When all vehicles run on H2, then additional decreases in CO, NOx and PM2.5 are 5%, 40%, and 5% relative to the no-H2 cars future scenario. Our study shows that H2 vehicles may be an effective pathway to fulfill the strict future EU air quality regulations. O3 has a more complicated behavior - its annual average decreases in background areas, but increases in the high-NOx area in western Europe, with the decrease in NOx. A more detailed analysis shows that the population exposure to high O3 levels decreases nevertheless. In all future scenarios, traffic emissions account for only a small proportion of the total anthropogenic emissions, thus it becomes more important

[Study on the land use optimization based on PPI].

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Xiao-Feng; Li, Ting

2012-03-01

Land use type and managing method which is greatly influenced by human activities, is one of the most important factors of non-point pollution. Based on the collection and analysis of non-point pollution control methods and the concept of the three ecological fronts, 9 land use optimized scenarios were designed according to rationality analysis of the current land use situation in the 3 typed small watersheds in Miyun reservoir basin. Take Caojialu watershed for example to analyze and compare the influence to environment of different scenarios based on potential pollution index (PPI) and river section potential pollution index (R-PPI) and the best combination scenario was found. Land use scenario designing and comparison on basis of PPI and R-PPI could help to find the best combination scenario of land use type and managing method, to optimize space distribution and managing methods of land use in basin, to reduce soil erosion and to provide powerful support to formulation of land use planning and pollution control project.

Land Cover/Land Use Classification and Change Detection Analysis with Astronaut Photography and Geographic Object-Based Image Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hollier, Andi B.; Jagge, Amy M.; Stefanov, William L.; Vanderbloemen, Lisa A.

2017-01-01

For over fifty years, NASA astronauts have taken exceptional photographs of the Earth from the unique vantage point of low Earth orbit (as well as from lunar orbit and surface of the Moon). The Crew Earth Observations (CEO) Facility is the NASA ISS payload supporting astronaut photography of the Earth surface and atmosphere. From aurora to mountain ranges, deltas, and cities, there are over two million images of the Earth's surface dating back to the Mercury missions in the early 1960s. The Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth website (eol.jsc.nasa.gov) provides a publically accessible platform to query and download these images at a variety of spatial resolutions and perform scientific research at no cost to the end user. As a demonstration to the science, application, and education user communities we examine astronaut photography of the Washington D.C. metropolitan area for three time steps between 1998 and 2016 using Geographic Object-Based Image Analysis (GEOBIA) to classify and quantify land cover/land use and provide a template for future change detection studies with astronaut photography.

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transporation systems. Volume 2: Identification of issues affecting intercity transportation

Science.gov (United States)

1976-01-01

Papers on major issues and trends that affect the future of intercity transportation are presented. Specific areas covered include: political, social, technological, institutional, and economic mechanisms, the workings of which determine how future intercity transporation technologies will evolve and be put into service; the major issues of intercity transportation from the point of view of reform, including candidate transporation technologies; and technical analysis of trends affecting the evolution of intercity transportation technologies.

Study on temporal and spatial variations of urban land use based on land change data

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Ping; Liu, Yanfang; Fan, Min; Zhang, Yang

2009-10-01

With the rapid development of urbanization, demands of urban land increase in succession, hence, to analyze temporal and spatial variations of urban land use becomes more and more important. In this paper, the principle of trend surface analysis and formula of urban land sprawl index ( ULSI) are expatiated at first, and then based on land change data of Jiayu county, the author fits quadratic trend surface by choosing urban land area as dependent variable and urbanization and GDP as independent variables from 1996 to 2006, draws isoline of trend surface and residual values; and then urban land sprawl indexes of towns are calculated on the basis of urban land area of 1996 and 2006 and distribution map of ULSI is plotted. After analyzing those results, we can conclude that there is consanguineous relationship between urban land area and urbanization, economic level etc.

Modeling radiocesium transport from a river catchment based on a physically-based distributed hydrological and sediment erosion model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kinouchi, Tsuyoshi; Yoshimura, Kazuya; Omata, Teppei

2015-01-01

The accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) in March 2011 resulted in the deposition of large quantities of radionuclides, such as (134)Cs and (137)Cs, over parts of eastern Japan. Since then high levels of radioactive contamination have been detected in large areas, including forests, agricultural land, and residential areas. Due to the strong adsorption capability of radiocesium to soil particles, radiocesium migrates with eroded sediments, follows the surface flow paths, and is delivered to more populated downstream regions and eventually to the Pacific Ocean. It is therefore important to understand the transport of contaminated sediments in the hydrological system and to predict changes in the spatial distribution of radiocesium concentrations by taking the land-surface processes related to sediment migration into consideration. In this study, we developed a distributed model to simulate the transport of water and contaminated sediment in a watershed hydrological system, and applied this model to a partially forested mountain catchment located in an area highly contaminated by the radioactive fallout. Observed discharge, sediment concentration, and cesium concentration measured from June 2011 until December 2012 were used for calibration of model parameters. The simulated discharge and sediment concentration both agreed well with observed values, while the cesium concentration was underestimated in the initial period following the accident. This result suggests that the leaching of radiocesium from the forest canopy, which was not considered in the model, played a significant role in its transport from the catchment. Based on the simulation results, we quantified the long-term fate of radiocesium over the study area and estimated that the effective half-life of (137)Cs deposited in the study area will be approximately 22 y due to the export of contaminated sediment by land-surface processes, and the amount of (137)Cs remaining in the

METHODOLOGICAL BASIS IMPOSING RESTRICTIONS IN LAND USE, BURDENED LAND RIGHTS DURING LAND TENURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dorosh J.

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The question of balanced consolidation of social legislation in a reasonable ratio of land rights and the interests of society as a whole, as well as local communities, citizens and legal entities established by them are general in nature and require specificity it is. Proved that one way of solving this problem is the establishment of restoictions of land rights, restrictions in land use. However, the mechanism of regulation establishment, implementation and termination of restrictions on the rights to land are not very functional and needs improvement. Current legislation in Ukraine does not contain a balanced set of regulations that would determine the nature and objectives of the restrictions, including encumbrances of land rights, their types, the reasons establishing and implementing restrictions of ownership and other rights to land and so on. Based on our analysis, we provide scientifically grounded suggestions on improving the legal framework, particularly, in terms of restrictions on land use and registration in the land management process, as an important means of influence on those rights in order to ensure rational land use and protection it is. Proved that the efficiency of administrative decisions during setting restrictions on land use purpose and usage of land is possible on the basis of land zoning, thus, it is necessary to adopt the Law of Ukraine "On land zoning." In addition, the current classification of land use restrictions, which was proposed by prominent scientists in Ukraine AM Tretyak (classification of restrictions in land use by functional features, and D.S. Dobryak and D.I. Babmindra (classification of restrictions on land use based on their placement by owners and land users, is complemented by types, namely: legal, environmental, ecological, technological, sanitation, urban and special. In the result of scientific studies,we have proposed a model of methodological process of land management actions on formation

Graphical-based construction of combinatorial geometries for radiation transport and shielding applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burns, T.J.

1992-01-01

A graphical-based code system is being developed at ORNL to manipulate combinatorial geometries for radiation transport and shielding applications. The current version (basically a combinatorial geometry debugger) consists of two parts: a FORTRAN-based ''view'' generator and a Microsoft Windows application for displaying the geometry. Options and features of both modules are discussed. Examples illustrating the various options available are presented. The potential for utilizing the images produced using the debugger as a visualization tool for the output of the radiation transport codes is discussed as is the future direction of the development

Trends in income and price elasticities of transport demand (1850–2010)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fouquet, Roger

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to estimate trends in income and price elasticities and to offer insights for the future growth in transport use, with particular emphasis on the impact of energy and technological transitions. The results indicate that income and price elasticities of passenger transport demand in the United Kingdom were very large (3.1 and −1.5, respectively) in the mid-nineteenth century, and declined since then. In 2010, long run income and price elasticity of aggregate land transport demand were estimated to be 0.8 and −0.6. These trends suggest that future elasticities related to transport demand in developed economies may decline very gradually and, in developing economies, where elasticities are often larger, they will probably decline more rapidly as the economies develop. Because of the declining trends in elasticities, future energy and technological transitions are not likely to generate the growth rates in energy consumption that occurred following transitions in the nineteenth century. Nevertheless, energy and technological transitions, such as the car and the airplane, appear to have delayed and probably will delay declining trends in income and price elasticity of aggregate transport demand. - Highlights: ► Estimates trends in income and price elasticities of aggregate UK land transport demand (1850–2010). ► Income and price elasticities were very large in late 1800s and declined since then. ► In 2010, they were estimated to be 0.8 and −0.6. ► Future elasticities are likely to decline gradually in developed economies and faster in developing economies. ► Energy transitions may delay the decline in elasticities.

The Urban Intensive Land-use Evaluation in Xi’an, Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Ru; Kang, Zhiyuan

2018-01-01

The intensive land-use is the basis of urban “stock optimization”, and scientific and reasonable evaluation is the important content of the land-intensive utilization. In this paper, through the survey of Xi’an urban land-use condition, we construct the suitable evaluation index system of Xi’an’ intensive land-use, by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) of combination. And through the analysis of the influencing factors of land-intensive utilization, we provide a reference for the future development direction.

A GIS-based hedonic price model for agricultural land

Science.gov (United States)

Demetriou, Demetris

2015-06-01

Land consolidation is a very effective land management planning approach that aims towards rural/agricultural sustainable development. Land reallocation which involves land tenure restructuring is the most important, complex and time consuming component of land consolidation. Land reallocation relies on land valuation since its fundamental principle provides that after consolidation, each landowner shall be granted a property of an aggregate value that is approximately the same as the value of the property owned prior to consolidation. Therefore, land value is the crucial factor for the land reallocation process and hence for the success and acceptance of the final land consolidation plan. Land valuation is a process of assigning values to all parcels (and its contents) and it is usually carried out by an ad-hoc committee. However, the process faces some problems such as it is time consuming hence costly, outcomes may present inconsistency since it is carried out manually and empirically without employing systematic analytical tools and in particular spatial analysis tools and techniques such as statistical/mathematical. A solution to these problems can be the employment of mass appraisal land valuation methods using automated valuation models (AVM) based on international standards. In this context, this paper presents a spatial based linear hedonic price model which has been developed and tested in a case study land consolidation area in Cyprus. Results showed that the AVM is capable to produce acceptable in terms of accuracy and reliability land values and to reduce time hence cost required by around 80%.

Computer-based modelling and optimization in transportation

CERN Document Server

Rossi, Riccardo

2014-01-01

This volume brings together works resulting from research carried out by members of the EURO Working Group on Transportation (EWGT) and presented during meetings and workshops organized by the Group under the patronage of the Association of European Operational Research Societies in 2012 and 2013. The main targets of the EWGT include providing a forum to share research information and experience, encouraging joint research and the development of both theoretical methods and applications, and promoting cooperation among the many institutions and organizations which are leaders at national level in the field of transportation and logistics. The primary fields of interest concern operational research methods, mathematical models and computation algorithms, to solve and sustain solutions to problems mainly faced by public administrations, city authorities, public transport companies, service providers and logistic operators. Related areas of interest are: land use and transportation planning, traffic control and ...

Integrating future scenario‐based crop expansion and crop conditions to map switchgrass biofuel potential in eastern Nebraska, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.

2018-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) has been evaluated as one potential source for cellulosic biofuel feedstocks. Planting switchgrass in marginal croplands and waterway buffers can reduce soil erosion, improve water quality, and improve regional ecosystem services (i.e. it serves as a potential carbon sink). In previous studies, we mapped high risk marginal croplands and highly erodible cropland buffers that are potentially suitable for switchgrass development, which would improve ecosystem services and minimally impact food production. In this study, we advance our previous study results and integrate future crop expansion information to develop a switchgrass biofuel potential ensemble map for current and future croplands in eastern Nebraska. The switchgrass biomass productivity and carbon benefits (i.e. NEP: net ecosystem production) for the identified biofuel potential ensemble areas were quantified. The future scenario‐based (‘A1B’) land use and land cover map for 2050, the US Geological Survey crop type and Compound Topographic Index (CTI) maps, and long‐term (1981–2010) averaged annual precipitation data were used to identify future crop expansion regions that are suitable for switchgrass development. Results show that 2528 km2 of future crop expansion regions (~3.6% of the study area) are potentially suitable for switchgrass development. The total estimated biofuel potential ensemble area (including cropland buffers, marginal croplands, and future crop expansion regions) is 4232 km2 (~6% of the study area), potentially producing 3.52 million metric tons of switchgrass biomass per year. Converting biofuel ensemble regions to switchgrass leads to potential carbon sinks (the total NEP for biofuel potential areas is 0.45 million metric tons C) and is environmentally sustainable. Results from this study improve our understanding of environmental conditions and ecosystem services of current and future cropland systems in eastern Nebraska and provide

Particle and energy transport studies on TFTR and implications for helium ash in future fusion devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Synakowski, E.J.; Efthimion, P.C.; Rewoldt, G.; Stratton, B.C.; Tang, W.M.; Bell, R.E.; Grek, B.; Hulse, R.A.; Johnson, D.W.; Hill, K.W.; Mansfield, D.K.; McCune, D.; Mikkelsen, D.R.; Park, H.K.; Ramsey, A.T.; Scott, S.D.; Taylor, G.; Timberlake, J.; Zarnstorff, M.C.

1992-01-01

Particle and energy transport in tokamak plasmas have long been subjects of vigorous investigation. Present-day measurement techniques permit radially resolved studies of the transport of electron perturbations, low- and high-Z impurities, and energy. In addition, developments in transport theory provide tools that can be brought to bear on transport issues. Here, we examine local particle transport measurements of electrons, fully-stripped thermal helium, and helium-like iron in balanced-injection L-mode and enhanced confinement deuterium plasmas on TFTR of the same plasma current, toroidal field, and auxiliary heating power. He 2+ and Fe 24+ transport has been studied with charge exchange recombination spectroscopy, while electron transport has been studied by analyzing the perturbed electron flux following the same helium puff used for the He 2+ studies. By examining the electron and He 2+ responses following the same gas puff in the same plasmas, an unambiguous comparison of the transport of the two species has been made. The local energy transport has been examined with power balance analysis, allowing for comparisons to the local thermal fluxes. Some particle and energy transport results from the Supershot have been compared to a transport model based on a quasilinear picture of electrostatic toroidal drift-type microinstabilities. Finally, implications for future fusion reactors of the observed correlation between thermal transport and helium particle transport is discussed

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 7: Study recommendations

Science.gov (United States)

1976-01-01

Research and analysis tasks to alleviate negative impacts, to augment positive impacts, or to better understand the impacts produced by the potential introduction of the alternate transportation technologies are identified. The project team's recommendations on research and analysis efforts which have resulted from the technology assessment are provided. Many of the recommendations apply to the future supply of intercity passenger transportation services, categorized by mode. Other recommendations pertain to broad issues in intercity transportation--e.g., finance, regulation, traveler values--that will affect all modes.

Liability of land transportation of fuels from the perspective of Brazilian legal system; Responsabilidade civil dos transportadores terrestres de combustiveis a luz do ordenamento juridico brasileiro

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Azevedo, Gabrielle Trindade Moreira de; Soares, Pedro Lucas de Moura [Agencia Nacional do Petroleo, Gas Natural e Biocombustiveis (ANP), Brasilia, DF (Brazil). Programa de Recursos Humanos em Direito do Petroleo, Gas Natural e Biocombustiveis

2010-01-15

The article explains about the assumptions of liability - injury, illicit act and the causation between them - and the strands that give ground, namely the subjective and objective liability. Finally, we examine the legal framework on land transportation of fuels, applying to it device relating to civil liability, determining the ways to responsibility the transportation company, in each of the modality of land transportation, which are the road, railway and by using pipes.

Monitoring Urban Land Cover/land Use Change in Algiers City Using Landsat Images (1987-2016)

Science.gov (United States)

Bouchachi, B.; Zhong, Y.

2017-09-01

Monitoring the Urban Land Cover/Land Use change detection is important as one of the main driving forces of environmental change because Urbanization is the biggest changes in form of Land, resulting in a decrease in cultivated areas. Using remote sensing ability to solve land resources problems. The purpose of this research is to map the urban areas at different times to monitor and predict possible urban changes, were studied the annual growth urban land during the last 29 years in Algiers City. Improving the productiveness of long-term training in land mapping, were have developed an approach by the following steps: 1) pre-processing for improvement of image characteristics; 2) extract training sample candidates based on the developed methods; and 3) Derive maps and analyzed of Algiers City on an annual basis from 1987 to 2016 using a Supervised Classifier Support Vector Machine (SVMs). Our result shows that the strategy of urban land followed in the region of Algiers City, developed areas mostly were extended to East, West, and South of Central Regions. The urban growth rate is linked with National Office of Statistics data. Future studies are required to understand the impact of urban rapid lands on social, economy and environmental sustainability, it will also close the gap in data of urbanism available, especially on the lack of reliable data, environmental and urban planning for each municipality in Algiers, develop experimental models to predict future land changes with statistically significant confidence.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Le Page

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Water use impacts of future transport fuels: role of California's climate policy & National biofuel policies (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Teter, J.; Yeh, S.; Mishra, G. S.; Tiedeman, K.; Yang, C.

2013-12-01

In the coming decades, growing demand for energy and water and the need to address climate change will create huge challenges for energy policy and natural resource management. Synergistic strategies must be developed to conserve and use both resources more efficiently. California (CA) is a prime example of a region where policymakers have began to incorporate water planning in energy infrastructure development. But more must be done as CA transforms its energy system to meet its climate target. We analyze lifecycle water use of current and future transport fuel consumption to evaluate impacts & formulate mitigation strategies for the state at the watershed scale. Four 'bounding cases' for CA's future transportation demand to year 2030 are projected for analysis: two scenarios that only meet the 2020 climate target (business-as-usual, BAU) with high / low water use intensity, and two that meet long-term climate target with high / low water use intensity (Fig 1). Our study focuses on the following energy supply chains: (a) liquid fuels from conventional/unconventional oil & gas, (b) thermoelectric and renewable generation technologies, and (c) biofuels (Fig 2-3). We develop plausible siting scenarios that bound the range of possible water sources, impacts, and dispositions to provide insights into how to best allocate water and limit water impacts of energy development. We further identify constraints & opportunities to improve water use efficiency and highlight salient policy relevant lessons. For biofuels we extend our scope to the entire US as most of the biofuels consumed in California are and will be produced from outside of the state. We analyze policy impacts that capture both direct & indirect land use effects across scenarios, thus addressing the major shortcomings of existing studies, which ignore spatial heterogeneity as well as economic effects of crop displacement and the effects of crop intensification and extensification. We use the agronomic

Economic effects of propulsion system technology on existing and future transport aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

Sallee, G. P.

1974-01-01

The results of an airline study of the economic effects of propulsion system technology on current and future transport aircraft are presented. This report represents the results of a detailed study of propulsion system operating economics. The study has four major parts: (1) a detailed analysis of current propulsion system maintenance with respect to the material and labor costs encountered versus years in service and the design characteristics of the major elements of the propulsion system of the B707, b727, and B747. (2) an analysis of the economic impact of a future representative 1979 propulsion system is presented with emphasis on depreciation of investment, fuel costs and maintenance costs developed on the basis of the analysis of the historical trends observed. (3) recommendations concerning improved methods of forecasting the maintenance cost of future propulsion systems are presented. A detailed method based on the summation of the projected labor and material repair costs for each major engine module and its installation along with a shorter form suitable for quick, less detailed analysis are presented, and (4) recommendations concerning areas where additional technology is needed to improve the economics of future commercial propulsion systems are presented along with the suggested economic benefits available from such advanced technology efforts.

Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in Mancha Oriental (Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; Garcia-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.

2014-09-01

Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation, as various and complex interactions in the hydrological cycle take part. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands (global change). Changes in future climate and land uses will alter the hydrologic cycles and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting the behavior of recharge and discharge conditions under future climatic and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system in Spain, in the last decades the transformation from dry to irrigated lands has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table in one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Streamflow depletion is compromising the related ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. The intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is also leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. In this paper we analyze the potential impact of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modelling framework consisting of the sequentially coupling of a watershed agriculturally-based hydrological model (SWAT) with the ground-water model MODFLOW and mass-transport model MT3D. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing ET and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream

A technical review of urban land use - transportation models as tools for evaluating vehicle travel reduction strategies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Southworth, F.

1995-07-01

The continued growth of highway traffic in the United States has led to unwanted urban traffic congestion as well as to noticeable urban air quality problems. These problems include emissions covered by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) and 1991 Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA), as well as carbon dioxide and related {open_quotes}greenhouse gas{close_quotes} emissions. Urban travel also creates a major demand for imported oil. Therefore, for economic as well as environmental reasons, transportation planning agencies at both the state and metropolitan area level are focussing a good deal of attention on urban travel reduction policies. Much discussed policy instruments include those that encourage fewer trip starts, shorter trip distances, shifts to higher-occupancy vehicles or to nonvehicular modes, and shifts in the timing of trips from the more to the less congested periods of the day or week. Some analysts have concluded that in order to bring about sustainable reductions in urban traffic volumes, significant changes will be necessary in the way our households and businesses engage in daily travel. Such changes are likely to involve changes in the ways we organize and use traffic-generating and-attracting land within our urban areas. The purpose of this review is to evaluate the ability of current analytic methods and models to support both the evaluation and possibly the design of such vehicle travel reduction strategies, including those strategies involving the reorganization and use of urban land. The review is organized into three sections. Section 1 describes the nature of the problem we are trying to model, Section 2 reviews the state of the art in operational urban land use-transportation simulation models, and Section 3 provides a critical assessment of such models as useful urban transportation planning tools. A number of areas are identified where further model development or testing is required.

Land use/land cover and land capability data for evaluating land utilization and official land use planning in Indramayu Regency, West Java, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Ambarwulan, W.; Widiatmaka; Nahib, I.

2018-05-01

Land utilization in Indonesia is regulated in an official spatial land use planning (OSLUP), stipulated by government regulations. However in fact, land utilizations are often develops inconsistent with regulations. OSLUP itself is also not usually compatible with sustainable land utilizations. This study aims to evaluate current land utilizations and OSLUP in Indramayu Regency, West Java. The methodology used is the integrated analysis using land use and land cover (LU/LC) data, land capability data and spatial pattern in OSLUP. Actual LU/LC are interpreted using SPOT-6 imagery of 2014. The spatial data of land capabilities are derived from land capability classification using field data and laboratory analysis. The confrontation between these spatial data is interpreted in terms of future direction for sustainable land use planning. The results shows that Indramayu regency consists of 8 types of LU/LC. Land capability in research area range from class II to VIII. Only a small portion of the land in Indramayu has been used in accordance with land capability, but most of the land is used exceeding its land capability.

Surficial geology and land classification, Mackenzie Valley Transportation Corridor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hughes, O L; Pilon, J; Veilette, J

1974-01-01

The objective of this project, continued from 1971 and 1972 is to provide an inventory of surficial geology and permafrost distribution data pertinent to pipeline construction, road building, and other land use activities that might take place in the Mackenzie Valley Transportation Corridor. Hughes together with N.W. Rutter devoted one month to reconnaissance examination of the area encompassed by this project and Project 710047 (see this report). A primary objective was to insure uniform usage of map-units throughout the 2 areas. Construction on the Mackenzie Highway was examined in order to evaluate terrain performance of various map-units crossed by the highway. Limited geological studies, including shallow borings and measurement of sections, were conducted to supplement field work of 1971 and 1972. J. Veillette conducted diamond drilling in permanently frozen surficial deposits during the period mid-March to mid-April.

Benefits of wildlife-based land uses on private lands in Namibia and limitations affecting their development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lindsey, P.A.; Havemann, C.P.; Lines, R.M.; Price, A.E.; Retief, T.A.; Rhebergen, T.; Waal, van der C.; Romanach, S.

2013-01-01

Legislative changes during the 1960s–1970s granted user rights over wildlife to landowners in southern Africa, resulting in a shift from livestock farming to wildlife-based land uses. Few comprehensive assessments of such land uses on private land in southern Africa have been conducted and the

Origins and transport of aquatic dioxins in the Japanese watershed: soil contamination, land use, and soil runoff events.

Science.gov (United States)

Kanematsu, Masakazu; Shimizu, Yoshihisa; Sato, Keisuke; Kim, Suejin; Suzuki, Tasuma; Park, Baeksoo; Saino, Reiko; Nakamura, Masafumi

2009-06-15

Significant dioxins accumulations in Japanese forests and paddy fields have been observed, and surface soil runoff caused by rainfall and irrigation (i.e., soil puddling in paddy fields) results in dioxins input into the aquatic environment. An extensive investigation into the origins and transport of aquatic dioxins in the Yasu watershed, Japan was conducted considering surface soil contamination level, land use, and type of soil runoff event (i.e., irrigation runoff [IR], rainfall runoff [RR], and base flow [BF]). Combined use of the chemically activated luciferase expression (CALUX) assay together with high-resolution gas chromatography and high-resolution mass spectrometry (HRGC/HRMS) efficiently enabled this study, so that origins, transport, and dynamic movement of aquatic dioxins in the watershed were revealed. The particulate organic carbon normalized particulate-dioxins WHO-toxic equivalent (TEQ) concentration predicted by the CALUX assay (Spar) was found to be a convenient molecular marker to indicate origins of aquatic dioxins and clearly reflect surface soil contamination level, land use, and soil runoff events. Using experimental results and theoretical modeling, the annual loading amount of dioxins at the middle reach of the river was estimated to be 0.458 mg WHO-TEQ in 2004. More than 96.6% of the annual loading amount was attributed to RR and derived almost evenly from forest and paddy fields at the study location. Because the annual loading amount at the middle reach is less than 0.5% of the total dioxins accumulated in the upper basin, dioxins runoff from the Japanese watershed will continue. This study shows that the combined use of the bioassay with HRGC/HRMS can provide new insights into dioxins transport and fate in the environment.

Integrated risk management of safety and development on transportation corridors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thekdi, Shital A.; Lambert, James H.

2015-01-01

Prioritization of investments to protect safety and performance of multi-regional transportation networks from adjacent land development is a key concern for infrastructure agencies, land developers, and other stakeholders. Despite ample literature describing relationships between transportation and land use, no evidence-based methods exist for monitoring corridor needs on a large scale. Risk analysis is essential to the preservation of system safety and capacity, including avoidance of costly retrofits, regret, and belated action. This paper introduces the Corridor Trace Analysis (CTA) for prioritizing corridor segments that are vulnerable to adjacent land development. The method integrates several components: (i) estimation of likelihood of adjacent land development, using influence diagram and rule-based modeling, (ii) characterization of access point density using geospatial methods, and (iii) plural-model evaluation of corridors, monitoring indices of land development likelihood, access point densities, and traffic volumes. The results inform deployment of options that include closing access points, restricting development, and negotiation of agencies and developers. The CTA method is demonstrated on a region encompassing 6000 centerline miles (about 10,000 km) of transportation corridors. The method will be of interest to managers investing in safety and performance of infrastructure systems, balancing safety, financial, and other criteria of concern for diverse stakeholders. - Highlights: • The Corridor Trace Analysis (CTA) method for prioritizing transportation corridors. • The CTA method studies corridors vulnerable to adjacent land development. • The CTA method quantifies the influence of risk scenarios on agency priorities. • The CTA method is demonstrated on 6000 miles of critical transportation corridor

Effects of future land use and ecosystem changes on boundary-layer meteorology and air quality

Science.gov (United States)

Tai, A. P. K.; Wang, L.; Sadeke, M.

2017-12-01

Land vegetation plays key roles shaping boundary-layer meteorology and air quality via various pathways. Vegetation can directly affect surface ozone via dry deposition and biogenic emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Transpiration from land plants can also influence surface temperature, soil moisture and boundary-layer mixing depth, thereby indirectly affecting surface ozone. Future changes in the distribution, density and physiology of vegetation are therefore expected to have major ramifications for surface ozone air quality. In our study, we examine two aspects of potential vegetation changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in the fully coupled land-atmosphere configuration, and evaluate their implications on meteorology and air quality: 1) land use change, which alters the distribution of plant functional types and total leaf density; and 2) ozone damage on vegetation, which alters leaf density and physiology (e.g., stomatal resistance). We find that, following the RCP8.5 scenario for 2050, global cropland expansion induces only minor changes in surface ozone in tropical and subtropical regions, but statistically significant changes by up to +4 ppbv in midlatitude North America and East Asia, mostly due to higher surface temperature that enhances biogenic VOC emissions, and reduced dry deposition to a lesser degree. These changes are in turn to driven mostly by meteorological changes that include a shift from latent to sensible heat in the surface energy balance and reduced soil moisture, reflecting not only local responses but also a northward expansion of the Hadley Cell. On the other hand, ozone damage on vegetation driven by rising anthropogenic emissions is shown to induce a further enhancement of ozone by up to +6 ppbv in midlatitude regions by 2050. This reflects a strong localized positive feedback, with severe ozone damage in polluted regions generally inducing stomatal closure, which in turn reduces transpiration, increases

Future of energy efficiency and carbon dioxide emissions of Finnish road freight transport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liimatainen, H.

2013-05-15

The targets to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions to mitigate climate change are as much applicable to the road freight transport sector as they are to all other sectors of society. The aim of this research is to support the initiatives of the Finnish government for improving the energy efficiency and reducing the CO{sub 2} emissions of road freight transport. This is done by forecasting the future development and giving the policy makers guidance on effective measures for promoting road freight energy efficiency and CO{sub 2} reduction. In the study a new method was introduced for connecting the fuel consumption data and goods transport data gathered from the official Finnish road statistics. This method enabled a detailed analysis of the interrelations between the economy, road freight transport, energy consumption and emissions. This analysis was conducted for the years 1995-2010 and the results were used as background information in the Delphi panel of experts. The experts estimated the development of the Finnish road freight sector to the year 2030. Furthermore, a web-based survey was conducted among Finnish road freight hauliers and shippers in order to explore the attitudes and measures related to the energy efficiency. Expert panel workshops were also organised to identify obstacles for the development of the energy efficiency of road freight transport as well as a wide selection of measures to overcome them. The results indicate that the economic development of different branches has a great effect on the energy efficiency and carbon dioxide emissions of road freight transport. Reaching the carbon emission target for the year 2030 is possible in the light of the scenarios which were formed based on expert forecasts. However, the target can be achieved with very different development paths, e.g. the structure of the national economy and the volume of transport seem to vary widely in the different scenarios. In the proposed recommendations on the measures

Efficient use of land to meet sustainable energy needs

Science.gov (United States)

Hernandez, Rebecca R.; Hoffacker, Madison K.; Field, Christopher B.

2015-04-01

The deployment of renewable energy systems, such as solar energy, to achieve universal access to electricity, heat and transportation, and to mitigate climate change is arguably the most exigent challenge facing humans today. However, the goal of rapidly developing solar energy systems is complicated by land and environmental constraints, increasing uncertainty about the future of the global energy landscape. Here, we test the hypothesis that land, energy and environmental compatibility can be achieved with small- and utility-scale solar energy within existing developed areas in the state of California (USA), a global solar energy hotspot. We found that the quantity of accessible energy potentially produced from photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) within the built environment (`compatible’) exceeds current statewide demand. We identify additional sites beyond the built environment (`potentially compatible’) that further augment this potential. Areas for small- and utility-scale solar energy development within the built environment comprise 11,000-15,000 and 6,000 TWh yr-1 of PV and CSP generation-based potential, respectively, and could meet the state of California’s energy consumptive demand three to five times over. Solar energy within the built environment may be an overlooked opportunity for meeting sustainable energy needs in places with land and environmental constraints.

Technology versus demand regulation - strategic modelling of transport, land use and energy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfaffenbichler, Paul C.; Shepherd, Simon

2007-01-01

Scarcity of oil supply is seen as one of the biggest future threats to our society. The recently finished EU-funded research project STEPs (Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects) had the objective to develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and the energy supply of the future taking into account the effects on the environment as well as economic and social viability. Two energy supply scenarios, one with and one without scarcity of oil supply, form the basis of STEPs. Furthermore two different policies are suggested to tackle the problem of scarcity of oil: a technology driven strategy and a demand regulation based strategy. This paper presents the application of these scenarios and strategies to the strategic Systems Dynamics model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) covering the metropolitan area of Edinburgh. Scenario indicators like car ownership, fleet composition and fuel resource costs were provided by the European model ASTRA and the world energy market model POLES. The first part of the paper summarises the scenarios and strategies in detail. The second part describes briefly some basics of Systems Dynamics as well as the main mechanisms underlying the model MARS. Finally the results of the scenario simulations are presented. The main outcome is that a demand regulation policy is more effective in reducing the consumption of non-renewable energy resources than a technology driven policy

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruth, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Aden, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Warner, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Simpkins, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Argo, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2013-03-01

The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruth, M.; Mai, T.; Newes, E.; Aden, A.; Warner, E.; Uriarte, C.; Inman, D.; Simpkins, T.; Argo, A.

2013-03-01

The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Modelling transport of water and solutes in future wetlands in Forsmark

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vikstroem, Maria; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran [DHI Water and Environment AB, Vaexjoe (Sweden)

2006-03-15

The Forsmark area consists of a number of natural wetlands. As a part of the evaluation of wetlands in the safety assessment for the area, possible future wetlands are being studied with respect to hydrology and transport mechanisms. A sensitivity analyses is performed to point out the governing parameters for the wetland hydraulics. The analysis of future wetlands is carried out using the hydrological model system Mike SHE. Mike SHE has been used to describe the near-surface hydrology for a regional model area in Forsmark. Three types of areas have been chosen. Today's lake Bolundfjaerden is because of its shallow depth likely to develop into a mire in the future. As it is situated in the downstream part of the regional model area, the runoff to the lake from upstream surface water system is significant. Lake Eckarfjaerden is situated in the upstream part of the catchment at a higher altitude and with a smaller inflow. Lake Puttan is situated above a planned layout of the repository and has a potential to receive discharges from a repository. It also lies in the downstream part of a large discharge area. The topography of the future mires is assumed to be flat, up to today's mean water level in each lake. To transport the surface runoff through the wetland, streams or water courses are assumed to form within the peat. The analyses of future wetlands in the Forsmark area show that the hydraulic conditions that exists today will somewhat alter as the peat is formed. For Bolundsfjaerden, where there during present conditions are weak discharge areas, a recharge area has formed during the summer. This can be explained by the amount of surface water that forms on the surface which increases the head elevation in the upper soil layers. The same holds for Eckarfjaerden, while Puttan after the peat has developed still is a discharge area due to its naturally strong discharge position close to the sea. Different vegetation and development stages for the peat have

Modelling transport of water and solutes in future wetlands in Forsmark

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vikstroem, Maria; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran

2006-03-01

The Forsmark area consists of a number of natural wetlands. As a part of the evaluation of wetlands in the safety assessment for the area, possible future wetlands are being studied with respect to hydrology and transport mechanisms. A sensitivity analyses is performed to point out the governing parameters for the wetland hydraulics. The analysis of future wetlands is carried out using the hydrological model system Mike SHE. Mike SHE has been used to describe the near-surface hydrology for a regional model area in Forsmark. Three types of areas have been chosen. Today's lake Bolundfjaerden is because of its shallow depth likely to develop into a mire in the future. As it is situated in the downstream part of the regional model area, the runoff to the lake from upstream surface water system is significant. Lake Eckarfjaerden is situated in the upstream part of the catchment at a higher altitude and with a smaller inflow. Lake Puttan is situated above a planned layout of the repository and has a potential to receive discharges from a repository. It also lies in the downstream part of a large discharge area. The topography of the future mires is assumed to be flat, up to today's mean water level in each lake. To transport the surface runoff through the wetland, streams or water courses are assumed to form within the peat. The analyses of future wetlands in the Forsmark area show that the hydraulic conditions that exists today will somewhat alter as the peat is formed. For Bolundsfjaerden, where there during present conditions are weak discharge areas, a recharge area has formed during the summer. This can be explained by the amount of surface water that forms on the surface which increases the head elevation in the upper soil layers. The same holds for Eckarfjaerden, while Puttan after the peat has developed still is a discharge area due to its naturally strong discharge position close to the sea. Different vegetation and development stages for the peat have been

Identification of Transportation Infrastructure at Risk Due To Sea-Level Rise and Subsidence of Land In Coastal Louisiana

Science.gov (United States)

Tewari, S.; Palmer, W.; Manning, F.

2017-12-01

Climate change can affect coastal areas in a variety of ways. Coasts are sensitive to sea level rise, changes in the frequency/intensity of storms, increase in precipitation and storm surges. The resilience of transportation infrastructure located in Louisiana's coastal zone, against storm surges and climatic sea-level rise is critical. The net change in sea-level is affected by the increase in global sea level as well as land movement up or down. There are many places in coastal Louisiana that have a high subsidence rate. The subsidence could be related to excess extraction activities of oil and water, natural and/or human induced compaction, and tectonic movement. Where the land is sinking, the rate of relative sea level rise is larger than the global rate. Some of the fastest rates of relative sea level rise in the United States are occurring in areas where the land is sinking, including parts of the Gulf Coast. For example, coastal Louisiana has seen its relative sea level rise by eight inches or more in the last 50 years, which is about twice the global rate. Subsiding land in the Gulf area worsens the effects of relative sea level rise, increasing the risk of flooding in cities, inhabited islands, and tidal wetlands. The research team is investigating the trends for sea-level rise and land subsidence in coastal region of Louisiana. The variability in storm surges and its potential implication on the transportation infrastructure in the region is the focus of the study. The spatial maps will be created for spatial trends. This is extremely useful in being prepared for long-term natural hazards. The results of this study will be helpful to LADOTD and infrastructure managers and officials who are tasked with resiliency planning and management. Research results will also directly benefit university researchers in the state, Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority and LADOTD/LTRC through collaborative activity which will educate both professionals and the

Effect of land albedo, CO2, orography, and oceanic heat transport on extreme climates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Romanova

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Using an atmospheric general circulation model of intermediate complexity coupled to a sea ice – slab ocean model, we perform a number of sensitivity experiments under present-day orbital conditions and geographical distribution to assess the possibility that land albedo, atmospheric CO2, orography and oceanic heat transport may cause an ice-covered Earth. Changing only one boundary or initial condition, the model produces solutions with at least some ice-free oceans in the low latitudes. Using some combination of these forcing parameters, a full Earth's glaciation is obtained. We find that the most significant factor leading to an ice-covered Earth is the high land albedo in combination with initial temperatures set equal to the freezing point. Oceanic heat transport and orography play only a minor role for the climate state. Extremely low concentrations of CO2 also appear to be insufficient to provoke a runaway ice-albedo feedback, but the strong deviations in surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere point to the existence of a strong nonlinearity in the system. Finally, we argue that the initial condition determines whether the system can go into a completely ice covered state, indicating multiple equilibria, a feature known from simple energy balance models.

User guide for the Air Force Base Automotive Transportation Simulation Model - BATS. Volume 2. Documentation. Final report Jun 78-Sep 79

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sandys, R.

1979-09-01

The Base Automotive Transportation Simulation (BATS) Model is a transportation planning and traffic flow model designed to simulate traffic volumes and flows on an air base. The principal model inputs are a road network, land use zones, demographic varibles, and gate counts. The land use zones and demographic variables are used to assign volumes to the road network, and these volumes are calibrated using the gate counts. The flow characteristics on each road in the network are simulated using the volumes assigned. Average speed and volumes are the results of the model and these may be directly input to the Air Quality Assessment Model (AQAM) to estimate pollutant emissions and dispersion from traffic sources. A volume flow plot of the network is an optional output of the model.

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE) and the San Pedro River Basin (U.S./Mexico).

Science.gov (United States)

Barlow, J. E.; Burns, I. S.; Guertin, D. P.; Kepner, W. G.; Goodrich, D. C.

2016-12-01

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time that was developed and applied on the San Pedro River Basin was expanded and utilized on the South Platte River Basin as well. Future urban growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and implement a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present, evaluate, and compare results from scenarios for watersheds in two different geographic and climatic regions, 3) determine watershed specific implications of this type of future land cover change analysis.

Radiation doses from the transport of radioactive waste to a future repository in Denmark. A model study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-05-01

The radiation doses modelled for transport of radioactive waste to a future repository in Denmark, demonstrates that the risk associated with road and sea transport should not limit the future selection of a location of the repository. From a safety perspective both road and sea transport seem to be feasible modes of transport. Although the modelling in most cases is performed conservatively, the modelled doses suggest that both transport methods can be carried out well within the national dose limits. Additionally, the dose levels associated with the modelled accident scenarios are low and the scenarios are thus found to be acceptable taken the related probabilities into account. (LN)

Radiation doses from the transport of radioactive waste to a future repository in Denmark. A model study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2011-05-15

The radiation doses modelled for transport of radioactive waste to a future repository in Denmark, demonstrates that the risk associated with road and sea transport should not limit the future selection of a location of the repository. From a safety perspective both road and sea transport seem to be feasible modes of transport. Although the modelling in most cases is performed conservatively, the modelled doses suggest that both transport methods can be carried out well within the national dose limits. Additionally, the dose levels associated with the modelled accident scenarios are low and the scenarios are thus found to be acceptable taken the related probabilities into account. (LN)

Climate change is about the future of our land, our resilience and our security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barbut, Monique

2014-04-01

While the IPCC report focuses on the impacts of climate change and warns of the possibility of increased floods, drought, conflict and economic losses if carbon emissions continue unabated, it fails to capture the key role of adaptation; that is, ecosystem-based solutions for managing climate risks. According to the author, these solutions are at hand without additional finance; all that is required is a realignment of investment flows. This should not be seen as a threat to vested interests but rather as an opportunity for more equitable development. Investing in practical solutions that transform lives and increase adaptive capacity would be cheaper and work better than investing in walls, wars and relief. Improving the resilience and well-being of the rural poor and other land-dependent communities will improve our own well-being, our national security, and help ensure international stability today and in the future

THE LAND TRANSPORT SYSTEM, TO AND FROM CONSTANTA, IN THE EARLY TWENTIETH CENTURY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

DOMINTE Paul

2014-09-01

Full Text Available A sustained progress of the town of Constanta, a predominantly commercial and touristic centre, needed the support of a modern transport infrastructure, i.e. secure and quick communication networks. This is why the development of the land transportation system, technically, as well as organizationally, turned out to be just as important as the harbour’s well known commercial shipping lanes. As such, the city was among the first towns in the country to build a connecting railway with the Danube River, once the bridges over the river were put up, and, consequently, to have a direct link with Western Europe, and the Orient Express. On the other hand, the city owes much of its progress to the local authorities, for whom the transport from town to places such as the harbour, the hippodrome, the beaches at Vii and Mamaia, were not to be neglected. Overall, this progress transformed Constanta into one of the most modern and dynamic economic areas in the Romanian Old Kingdom, in the early 20th century.

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France

OpenAIRE

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J. J.; Pag?, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by takin...

Multiobjective Optimization Combining BMP Technology and Land Preservation for Watershed-based Stormwater Management

Science.gov (United States)

McGarity, A. E.

2009-12-01

Recent progress has been made developing decision-support models for optimal deployment of best management practices (BMP’s) in an urban watershed to achieve water quality goals. One example is the high-level screening model StormWISE, developed by the author (McGarity, 2006) that uses linear and nonlinear programming to narrow the search for optimal solutions to certain land use categories and drainage zones. Another example is the model SUSTAIN developed by USEPA and Tetra Tech (Lai, et al., 2006), which builds on the work of Yu, et al., 2002), that uses a detailed, computationally intensive simulation model driven by a genetic solver to select optimal BMP sites. However, a model that deals only with best management practice (BMP) site selections may fail to consider solutions that avoid future nonpoint pollutant loadings by preserving undeveloped land. This paper presents results of a recently completed research project in which water resource engineers partnered with experienced professionals at a land conservation trust to develop a multiobjective model for watershed management. The result is a revised version of StormWISE that can be used to identify optimal, cost-effective combinations of easements and similar land preservation tools for undeveloped sites along with low impact development (LID) and BMP technologies for developed sites. The goal is to achieve the watershed-wide limits on runoff volume and pollutant loads that are necessary to meet water quality goals as well as ecological benefits associated with habitat preservation and enhancement. A nonlinear programming formulation is presented for the extended StormWISE model that achieves desired levels of environmental benefits at minimum cost. Tradeoffs between different environmental benefits are generated by multiple runs of the model while varying the levels of each environmental benefit obtained. The model is solved using piecewise linearization of environmental benefit functions where each

Economic challenges for the future relevance of biofuels in transport in EU countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ajanovic, A.; Haas, R.

2010-01-01

The discussion on the promotion of biofuels is ambiguous: on the one hand benefits like reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and increase of energy supply security are expected, on the other hand low effectiveness with respect to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and high costs are being criticized. The core objective of this paper is to investigate the market prospects of biofuels for transport in the EU in a dynamic framework till 2030. The major results of this analysis are: (i) Under current policy conditions - mainly exemption of excise taxes - the economic prospects of 1st generation biofuels in Europe are rather promising; the major problems of 1st generation biofuels are lack of available land for feedstocks and the modest ecological performance; (ii) Large expectations are currently put into advanced 2nd generation biofuels production from lignocellulosic materials. With respect to the future costs development of 2nd generation biofuels, currently it can only be stated that in a favourable case by 2030 they will be close to the costs of 1st generation biofuels. However, because of the increasing prices for fossil gasoline and diesel in all international scenarios - given remaining tax exemptions - biofuels will become competitive already in the next few years. (author)

Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

2011-01-01

development plans. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. This may be explained by the in-consistency between the logic of spatial master planning - and the organic or driver-dependent character of urban growth assumed by land use modelling...... approaches. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change......Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Projections of the future demand for urban development as well as decisions on how and where to accommodate this demand is part of the planning process and reflected in strategic- and local...

Application of SELECT and SWAT models to simulate source load, fate, and transport of fecal bacteria in watersheds.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranatunga, T.

2017-12-01

Modeling of fate and transport of fecal bacteria in a watershed is a processed based approach that considers releases from manure, point sources, and septic systems. Overland transport with water and sediments, infiltration into soils, transport in the vadose zone and groundwater, die-off and growth processes, and in-stream transport are considered as the other major processes in bacteria simulation. This presentation will discuss a simulation of fecal indicator bacteria source loading and in-stream conditions of a non-tidal watershed (Cedar Bayou Watershed) in South Central Texas using two models; Spatially Explicit Load Enrichment Calculation Tool (SELECT) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Furthermore, it will discuss a probable approach of bacteria source load reduction in order to meet the water quality standards in the streams. The selected watershed is listed as having levels of fecal indicator bacteria that posed a risk for contact recreation and wading by the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ). The SELECT modeling approach was used in estimating the bacteria source loading from land categories. Major bacteria sources considered were, failing septic systems, discharges from wastewater treatment facilities, excreta from livestock (Cattle, Horses, Sheep and Goat), excreta from Wildlife (Feral Hogs, and Deer), Pet waste (mainly from Dogs), and runoff from urban surfaces. The estimated source loads from SELECT model were input to the SWAT model, and simulate the bacteria transport through the land and in-stream. The calibrated SWAT model was then used to estimate the indicator bacteria in-stream concentrations for future years based on regional land use, population and household forecast (up to 2040). Based on the reductions required to meet the water quality standards in-stream, the corresponding required source load reductions were estimated.

Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Beijing, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiran Han

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Land use and land cover (LULC models are essential for analyzing LULC change and predicting land use requirements and are valuable for guiding reasonable land use planning and management. However, each LULC model has its own advantages and constraints. In this paper, we explore the characteristics of LULC change and simulate future land use demand by combining a CLUE-S model with a Markov model to deal with some shortcomings of existing LULC models. Using Beijing as a case study, we describe the related driving factors from land-adaptive variables, regional spatial variables and socio-economic variables and then simulate future land use scenarios from 2010 to 2020, which include a development scenario (natural development and rapid development and protection scenarios (ecological and cultivated land protection. The results indicate good consistency between predicted results and actual land use situations according to a Kappa statistic. The conversion of cultivated land to urban built-up land will form the primary features of LULC change in the future. The prediction for land use demand shows the differences under different scenarios. At higher elevations, the geographical environment limits the expansion of urban built-up land, but the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land in mountainous areas will be more prevalent by 2020; Beijing, however, still faces the most pressure in terms of ecological and cultivated land protection.

Chord-based versus voxel-based methods of electron transport in the skeletal tissues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shah, Amish P.; Jokisch, Derek W.; Rajon, Didier A.; Watchman, Christopher J.; Patton, Phillip W.; Bolch, Wesley E.

2005-01-01

energy deposition than given by voxel-based transport (average factor of about 1.6). The study supports future use of voxel-based skeletal models which (1) permit nonlinear electron trajectories across the skeletal tissues (2) do not rely on mathematical algorithms for treating the endosteal tissue layer, and (3) do not implicitly assume independence of marrow and bone trajectories as is the case for chord-based skeletal models

Future Transportation with Smart Grids and Sustainable Energy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gustav R. Grob

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Transportation is facing fundamental change due to the rapid depletion of fossil fuels, environmental and health problems, the growing world population, rising standards of living with more individual mobility and the globalization of trade with its increasing international transport volume. To cope with these serious problems benign, renewable energy systems and much more efficient drives must be multiplied as rapidly as possible to replace the polluting combustion engines with their much too low efficiency and high fuel logistics cost. Consequently the vehicles of the future must be non-polluting and super-efficient, i.e. electric. The energy supply must come via smart grids from clean energy sources not affecting the health, climate and biosphere. It is shown how this transition to the clean, sustainable energy age is possible, feasible and why it is urgent. The important role of international ISO, IEC and ITU standards and the need for better legislation by means of the Global Energy Charter for Sustainable Development are also highlighted.

A Process-Based Transport-Distance Model of Aeolian Transport

Science.gov (United States)

Naylor, A. K.; Okin, G.; Wainwright, J.; Parsons, A. J.

2017-12-01

We present a new approach to modeling aeolian transport based on transport distance. Particle fluxes are based on statistical probabilities of particle detachment and distributions of transport lengths, which are functions of particle size classes. A computational saltation model is used to simulate transport distances over a variety of sizes. These are fit to an exponential distribution, which has the advantages of computational economy, concordance with current field measurements, and a meaningful relationship to theoretical assumptions about mean and median particle transport distance. This novel approach includes particle-particle interactions, which are important for sustaining aeolian transport and dust emission. Results from this model are compared with results from both bulk- and particle-sized-specific transport equations as well as empirical wind tunnel studies. The transport-distance approach has been successfully used for hydraulic processes, and extending this methodology from hydraulic to aeolian transport opens up the possibility of modeling joint transport by wind and water using consistent physics. Particularly in nutrient-limited environments, modeling the joint action of aeolian and hydraulic transport is essential for understanding the spatial distribution of biomass across landscapes and how it responds to climatic variability and change.

Impact of Transport Zone Number in Simulation Models on Cost-Benefit Analysis Results in Transport Investments

Science.gov (United States)

Chmielewski, Jacek

2017-10-01

Nowadays, feasibility studies need to be prepared for all planned transport investments, mainly those co-financed with UE grants. One of the fundamental aspect of feasibility study is the economic justification of an investment, evaluated in an area of so called cost-benefit analysis (CBA). The main goal of CBA calculation is to prove that a transport investment is really important for the society and should be implemented as economically efficient one. It can be said that the number of hours (PH - passengers hours) in trips and travelled kilometres (PK - passengers kilometres) are the most important for CBA results. The differences between PH and PK calculated for particular investment scenarios are the base for benefits calculation. Typically, transport simulation models are the best source for such data. Transport simulation models are one of the most powerful tools for transport network planning. They make it possible to evaluate forecast traffic volume and passenger flows in a public transport system for defined scenarios of transport and area development. There are many different transport models. Their construction is often similar, and they mainly differ in the level of their accuracy. Even models for the same area may differ in this matter. Typically, such differences come from the accuracy of supply side representation: road and public transport network representation. In many cases only main roads and a public transport network are represented, while local and service roads are eliminated as a way of reality simplification. This also enables a faster and more effective calculation process. On the other hand, the description of demand part of these models based on transport zones is often stable. Difficulties with data collection, mainly data on land use, resulted in the lack of changes in the analysed land division into so called transport zones. In this paper the author presents an influence of land division on the results of traffic analyses, and hence

Water and Land Use Efficiency in Current and Potential Future US Corn and Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Warner, E. S.; Zhang, Y.; Newmark, R. L.

2012-12-01

Biofuels represent an opportunity for domestic fuel production from renewable energy sources with potential environmental and social benefits such as reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) and promoting rural development. However, as demand for biofuel continues to increase worldwide, concerns about land competition between food and fuel, excessive water usage and other unintended environmental consequences have grown. Through a comparative study between US corn ethanol and Brazilian sugarcane ethanol, we examine the energy, land, water and GHG performance of the two largest industrial fuel ethanol production systems in the world. Our comparisons include current and potential future systems with improved agronomic practices, crop yields, ethanol conversion processes, and utilization of agricultural residues. Our results suggest that the average water footprints of US corn ethanol and Brazilian sugarcane ethanol are fairly close (108 and 110 m3/GJ of ethanol, respectively) while the variations can range from 50 to 250 m3/GJ for sugarcane ethanol and 50 to380 m3/GJ for corn ethanol. Results emphasize the need to examine the water footprint within the context of local and regional climatic variability, water availability, competing uses (e.g. agricultural, industrial, and municipal water needs) and other ecosystem constraints. Research is under way (at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and other institutions) to develop models to analyze water supply and demand at the watershed-scale for current and future biomass production, and to understand the tradeoffs among water supply, demand and quality due to more intensive agricultural practices and expansion of biofuels. Land use efficiency metrics, with regards to life cycle GHG emissions (without land use change) savings through gasoline displacement with ethanol, illustrate the progression of the biofuel industry and the importance of maximizing bioenergy production by utilizing both the crops and the residues. A recent

Optimization of Land Use Pattern Reduces Surface Runoff and Sediment Loss in a Hilly-Gully Watershed at the Loess Plateau, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Han Yini

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Aim of study: The aim is to find a way increasing gain yield and lessen area of farmland, and then increasing vegetation cover, improving environment and alleviating soil erosion.Area of study: The Hilly-Gully region at the loess plateau of China.Material and methods: In this study, an adjusted and optimized land use pattern was developed in Luoyugou watershed in the Yellow River valley based on the gradient distribution of land use types, and its effect on water and sediment transport was simulated using the SWAT model and GIS, with remote sensing images, land use maps and hydrologic data.Main results: The results indicate: average simulated runoff and sediment for the period 1986-2000 under conditions of the three land use pattern (2011, 2008 and optimized land use reduced by 0.002-0.013 m3/s (2.7-17.6% and 0.66 million tons, respectively. The runoff and sediment data obtained were compared with observed data from 2008, which showed that runoff and sediment production would be reduced by 467625 m3 and 22754 tons, respectively.Research highlights: The adjustment of the land use pattern in comprehensive consideration of vegetation and geography have a positive effect on water and sediment transport which will be important for decision making and water resources management, and provides a reference for future environmental management and ecological construction in the loess plateau Hilly-Gully region. 

Optimization of Land Use Pattern Reduces Surface Runoff and Sediment Loss in a Hilly-Gully Watershed at the Loess Plateau, China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yini, H.; Jianzhi, N.; Zhongbao, X.; Wei, Z.; Tielin, Z.; Xilin, W.; Yousong, Z.

2016-07-01

Aim of study: The aim is to find a way increasing gain yield and lessen area of farmland, and then increasing vegetation cover, improving environment and alleviating soil erosion. Area of study: The Hilly-Gully region at the loess plateau of China. Material and methods: In this study, an adjusted and optimized land use pattern was developed in Luoyugou watershed in the Yellow River valley based on the gradient distribution of land use types, and its effect on water and sediment transport was simulated using the SWAT model and GIS, with remote sensing images, land use maps and hydrologic data. Main results: The results indicate: average simulated runoff and sediment for the period 1986-2000 under conditions of the three land use pattern (2011, 2008 and optimized land use) reduced by 0.002-0.013 m3/s (2.7-17.6%) and 0.66 million tons, respectively. The runoff and sediment data obtained were compared with observed data from 2008, which showed that runoff and sediment production would be reduced by 467625 m3 and 22754 tons, respectively. Research highlights: The adjustment of the land use pattern in comprehensive consideration of vegetation and geography have a positive effect on water and sediment transport which will be important for decision making and water resources management, and provides a reference for future environmental management and ecological construction in the loess plateau Hilly-Gully region. (Author)

Model-based transportation performance : a comparative framework and literature synthesis.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-01

In an era of limited resources and a proliferation of data, there is increasing pressure to conduct careful evaluations of the economic, environmental, and equity effects of investments and policies that influence transportation and land-use systems....

Integrating Building Energy Efficiency with Land Use and Transportation Planning in Jinan, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolae Duduta

2013-02-01

Full Text Available With the rapid growth occurring in the urban regions of China, it is critical to address issues of sustainability through practices that engender holistic energy efficient solutions. In this paper, we present results from a collaborative design project carried out with planning officials from the city of Jinan (population 3.4 million, for the Luokou district, a 3.1 km2 (1.2 mi2 area to the north of the CBD that is expected to house 100,000–130,000 people by 2020. By integrating sustainable building design, land use, urban design, and transportation, our proposal identified opportunities for improving energy efficiency that might have been overlooked by considering buildings and transportation separately. Mixed land uses and walkable neighborhoods were proposed along with highly differentiated street designs, intended to carry different traffic loads and prioritize diverse travel modes. Street widths and building heights were adjusted to maximize the potential for passive solar heating and daylight use within buildings. The district’s environmental performance, analyzed using building energy evaluation and traffic micro simulation models, showed that the design would reduce energy loads by over 25% compared to business as usual. While the proposal complied with national and local policies, and had far better energy performance than conventional designs, the proposal ultimately was not accepted by local officials because initial costs to the developers were higher than for conventional designs.

How Are Feedbacks Represented in Land Models?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Chen

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Land systems are characterised by many feedbacks that can result in complex system behaviour. We defined feedbacks as the two-way influences between the land use system and a related system (e.g., climate, soils and markets, both of which are encompassed by the land system. Land models that include feedbacks thus probably more accurately mimic how land systems respond to, e.g., policy or climate change. However, representing feedbacks in land models is a challenge. We reviewed articles incorporating feedbacks into land models and analysed each with predefined indicators. We found that (1 most modelled feedbacks couple land use systems with transport, soil and market systems, while only a few include feedbacks between land use and social systems or climate systems; (2 equation-based land use models that follow a top-down approach prevail; and (3 feedbacks’ effects on system behaviour remain relatively unexplored. We recommend that land system modellers (1 consider feedbacks between land use systems and social systems; (2 adopt (bottom-up approaches suited to incorporating spatial heterogeneity and better representing land use decision-making; and (3 pay more attention to nonlinear system behaviour and its implications for land system management and policy.

Interpretation of scenario results in terms of described and mapped land change trajectories and archetypes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kuemmerle, Tobias; Stürck, Julia; Levers, Christian

Module VISIONS seeks to identify critical pathways to reach desired futures for land systems (i.e., visions). In order to do so, work package (WP) 11 links the model-based scenarios (module ASSESSMENT) to the visions formulated derived in a transdisciplinary process together with stakeholders...... of future developments of current land change archetypes; and (3) an interpretation of future land change in light of long-term land system trajectories. Synthesizing across these analyses, six key insights emerged. First, future land change was relatively similar across marker scenarios and different...... policy alternatives, for many regions in Europe, suggesting strong path dependency. Second, the impact of policy options can differ (a) between regions in Europe and (b) among marker scenarios, highlighting the need for contextualized, regionalized policy making. Third, the expansion and intensification...

Monitoring Snow and Land Ice Using Satellite data in the GMES Project CryoLand

Science.gov (United States)

Bippus, Gabriele; Nagler, Thomas

2013-04-01

The main objectives of the project "CryoLand - GMES Service Snow and Land Ice" are to develop, implement and validate services for snow, glaciers and lake and river ice products as a Downstream Service within the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) program of the European Commission. CryoLand exploits Earth Observation data from current optical and microwave sensors and of the upcoming GMES Sentinel satellite family. The project prepares also the basis for the cryospheric component of the GMES Land Monitoring services. The CryoLand project team consists of 10 partner organisations from Austria, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Romania and is funded by the 7th Framework Program of the European Commission. The CryoLand baseline products for snow include fractional snow extent from optical satellite data, the extent of melting snow from SAR data, and coarse resolution snow water equivalent maps from passive microwave data. Experimental products include maps of snow surface wetness and temperature. The products range from large scale coverage at medium resolution to regional products with high resolution, in order to address a wide user community. Medium resolution optical data (e.g. MODIS, in the near future Sentinel-3) and SAR (ENVISAT ASAR, in the near future Sentinel-1) are the main sources of EO data for generating large scale products in near real time. For generation of regional products high resolution satellite data are used. Glacier products are based on high resolution optical (e.g. SPOT-5, in the near future Sentinel-2) and SAR (TerraSAR-X, in the near future Sentinel-1) data and include glacier outlines, mapping of glacier facies, glacier lakes and ice velocity. The glacier products are generated on users demand. Current test areas are located in the Alps, Norway, Greenland and the Himalayan Mountains. The lake and river ice products include ice extent and its temporal changes and snow extent on ice. The algorithms for these

Drivers of Land Use Change and the Role of Palm Oil Production in Indonesia and Malaysia. Overview of Past Developments and Future Projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wicke, Birka; Sikkema, Richard; Dornburg, Veronika; Junginger, Martin; Faaij, Andre

2008-07-01

This study provides insight into land use changes (LUC) in Indonesia and Malaysia and into the specific role that palm oil production and its expansion have played in the past and may play in the future in both countries. In relation to future land use changes induced by palm oil production expansion also the GHG emissions of this LUC are analysed to indicate the sustainability (from a GHG emission perspective) of the various palm oil expansion projections

The Environmental Advisory Service (EASe): a decision support system for comprehensive screening of local land-use development proposals and comparative evaluation of proposed land-use plans

OpenAIRE

K P White; A P Sage; F A Rodammer; C T Peters

1985-01-01

The Environmental Advisory Service (EASe) is a decision support system which can provide assistance to local planning agencies in selecting land-development alternatives or in formulating land-use plans. EASe offers a comprehensive and consistent procedure for rating either a development proposal or a proposed plan. This procedure is based upon qualitative assessments of the impact of developments or plans on the natural environment, zoning and land use. public and private services, transport...

Working landscapes: the future of land use policy?

Science.gov (United States)

Marc Miller; Thomas E. Sheridan; Susan Charnley; Christy Plumer; Jim Lyons; Tom Martin

2015-01-01

The history of land use in the American West has traditionally been one of conflict, but the divisive relationships between ranchers, foresters, land management agencies, recreational users, and conservationists are transforming. Grassroots coalitions have developed among unlikely allies. Together, they are advocating for management approaches that incorporate local...

Current Status and Future Potential of Energy Derived from Chinese Agricultural Land: A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ningning Zhai

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Energy crisis is receiving attention with regard to the global economy and environmental sustainable development. Developing new energy resources to optimize the energy supply structure has become an important measure to prevent energy shortage as well as achieving energy conservation and emission reduction in China. This study proposed the concept of energy agriculture and constructed an energy agricultural technical support system based on the analysis of energy supply and demand and China’s foreign dependence on energy resources, combined with the function of agriculture in the energy field. Manufacturing technology equipment and agricultural and forestry energy, including crop or forestry plants and animal feces, were used in the system. The current status and future potential of China’s marginal land resources, energy crop germplasm resources, and agricultural and forestry waste energy-oriented resources were analyzed. Developing the function of traditional agriculture in food production may promote China’s social, economic, and environmental sustainable development and achieve energy saving and emission reduction.

Introduction of a simple-model-based land surface dataset for Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2015-04-01

Land surface hydrology can play a crucial role during extreme events such as droughts, floods and even heat waves. We introduce in this study a new hydrological dataset for Europe that consists of soil moisture, runoff and evapotranspiration (ET). It is derived with a simple water balance model (SWBM) forced with precipitation, temperature and net radiation. The SWBM dataset extends over the period 1984-2013 with a daily time step and 0.5° × 0.5° resolution. We employ a novel calibration approach, in which we consider 300 random parameter sets chosen from an observation-based range. Using several independent validation datasets representing soil moisture (or terrestrial water content), ET and streamflow, we identify the best performing parameter set and hence the new dataset. To illustrate its usefulness, the SWBM dataset is compared against several state-of-the-art datasets (ERA-Interim/Land, MERRA-Land, GLDAS-2-Noah, simulations of the Community Land Model Version 4), using all validation datasets as reference. For soil moisture dynamics it outperforms the benchmarks. Therefore the SWBM soil moisture dataset constitutes a reasonable alternative to sparse measurements, little validated model results, or proxy data such as precipitation indices. Also in terms of runoff the SWBM dataset performs well, whereas the evaluation of the SWBM ET dataset is overall satisfactory, but the dynamics are less well captured for this variable. This highlights the limitations of the dataset, as it is based on a simple model that uses uniform parameter values. Hence some processes impacting ET dynamics may not be captured, and quality issues may occur in regions with complex terrain. Even though the SWBM is well calibrated, it cannot replace more sophisticated models; but as their calibration is a complex task the present dataset may serve as a benchmark in future. In addition we investigate the sources of skill of the SWBM dataset and find that the parameter set has a similar

Was everything bigger in Texas? Characterization and trends of a land-based recreational shark fishery

Science.gov (United States)

Ajemian, Matthew J.; Jose, Philip D.; Froeschke, John T.; Wildhaber, Mark L.; Stunz, Gregory W.

2016-01-01

Although current assessments of shark population trends involve both fishery-independent and fishery-dependent data, the latter are generally limited to commercial landings that may neglect nearshore coastal habitats. Texas has supported the longest organized land-based recreational shark fishery in the United States, yet no studies have used this “non-traditional” data source to characterize the catch composition or trends in this multidecadal fishery. We analyzed catch records from two distinct periods straddling heavy commercial exploitation of sharks in the Gulf of Mexico (historical period = 1973–1986; modern period = 2008–2015) to highlight and make available the current status and historical trends in Texas’ land-based shark fishery. Catch records describing large coastal species (>1,800 mm stretched total length [STL]) were examined using multivariate techniques to assess catch seasonality and potential temporal shifts in species composition. These fishery-dependent data revealed consistent seasonality that was independent of the data set examined, although distinct shark assemblages were evident between the two periods. Similarity percentage analysis suggested decreased contributions of Lemon Shark Negaprion brevirostris over time and a general shift toward the dominance of Bull Shark Carcharhinus leucas and Blacktip Shark C. limbatus. Comparisons of mean STL for species captured in historical and modern periods further identified significant decreases for both Bull Sharks and Lemon Sharks. Size structure analysis showed a distinct paucity of landed individuals over 2,000 mm STL in recent years. Although inherent biases in reporting and potential gear-related inconsistencies undoubtedly influenced this fishery-dependent data set, the patterns in our findings documented potential declines in the size and occurrence of select large coastal shark species off Texas, consistent with declines reported in the Gulf of Mexico. Future management efforts

Transformation of Agricultural Land for Urbanisation, Infrastructural Development and Question of Future Food Security: Cases from Parts of Hugli District, West Bengal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giyasuddin Siddique

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Developing countries of the world encounter urbanisation and infrastructural development in or around the fertile tracts and the absence of any landuse plan for desired land use change has led to conversion of farmlands, which is detrimental to future food security and environmental quality. Hugli district is traditionally well known as one of the most prosperous agricultural regions of West Bengal but the district is experiencing rapid urban extension and infrastructural development towards productive agricultural land since 1991. This has caused decline in the amount of agricultural production which may be treated as an indicator of increasing threat to the long run sustainable livelihood security of the people of the whole of West Bengal. This article critically explores the transformation of agricultural (farm land because of growing rate of urbanisation and infrastructural development, which in turn poses the question of threat to food (in security. Although, this is a growing problem across the universe, this article probes the future food security questions of Hugli district, West Bengal by examining the impact of the highly intertwined indicators of urbanisation and infrastructural development on agricultural (farm land use and its effect on food security. Regression analysis, Spearman’s Ranking Correlation Coefficient, Remote Sensing technologies, Markov Chain Model, Projection of future population growth and yield rate are employed to understand the depth of the problem. The result not only shows a direct negative correlation between urban extension and agricultural areal contraction but also the supervised classification of satellite imageries shows that there is rapid change of rural land use from 1996-2016. There is no match between future population growth and future yield rate of crops and the Markov Chain Model further predicts that the cropland will decrease from 62.77% to 42.90% and the built up area will increase from 31

Land User and Land Cover Maps of Europe: a Webgis Platform

Science.gov (United States)

Brovelli, M. A.; Fahl, F. C.; Minghini, M.; Molinari, M. E.

2016-06-01

This paper presents the methods and implementation processes of a WebGIS platform designed to publish the available land use and land cover maps of Europe at continental scale. The system is built completely on open source infrastructure and open standards. The proposed architecture is based on a server-client model having GeoServer as the map server, Leaflet as the client-side mapping library and the Bootstrap framework at the core of the front-end user interface. The web user interface is designed to have typical features of a desktop GIS (e.g. activate/deactivate layers and order layers by drag and drop actions) and to show specific information on the activated layers (e.g. legend and simplified metadata). Users have the possibility to change the base map from a given list of map providers (e.g. OpenStreetMap and Microsoft Bing) and to control the opacity of each layer to facilitate the comparison with both other land cover layers and the underlying base map. In addition, users can add to the platform any custom layer available through a Web Map Service (WMS) and activate the visualization of photos from popular photo sharing services. This last functionality is provided in order to have a visual assessment of the available land coverages based on other user-generated contents available on the Internet. It is supposed to be a first step towards a calibration/validation service that will be made available in the future.

GIS/RS-based Rapid Reassessment for Slope Land Capability Classification

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, T. Y.; Chompuchan, C.

2014-12-01

Farmland resources in Taiwan are limited because about 73% is mountainous and slope land. Moreover, the rapid urbanization and dense population resulted in the highly developed flat area. Therefore, the utilization of slope land for agriculture is more needed. In 1976, "Slope Land Conservation and Utilization Act" was promulgated to regulate the slope land utilization. Consequently, slope land capability was categorized into Class I-IV according to 4 criteria, i.e., average land slope, effective soil depth, degree of soil erosion, and parent rock. The slope land capability Class I-VI are suitable for cultivation and pasture. Whereas, Class V should be used for forestry purpose and Class VI should be the conservation land which requires intensive conservation practices. The field survey was conducted to categorize each land unit as the classification scheme. The landowners may not allow to overuse land capability limitation. In the last decade, typhoons and landslides frequently devastated in Taiwan. The rapid post-disaster reassessment of the slope land capability classification is necessary. However, the large-scale disaster on slope land is the constraint of field investigation. This study focused on using satellite remote sensing and GIS as the rapid re-evaluation method. Chenyulan watershed in Nantou County, Taiwan was selected to be a case study area. Grid-based slope derivation, topographic wetness index (TWI) and USLE soil loss calculation were used to classify slope land capability. The results showed that GIS-based classification give an overall accuracy of 68.32%. In addition, the post-disaster areas of Typhoon Morakot in 2009, which interpreted by SPOT satellite imageries, were suggested to classify as the conservation lands. These tools perform better in the large coverage post-disaster update for slope land capability classification and reduce time-consuming, manpower and material resources to the field investigation.

Experimental Design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arnott, James [AGCI

2015-10-30

The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Experimental design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios,” on August 3-8, 2014 in Aspen, CO. Claudia Tebaldi (NCAR) and Brian O’Neill (NCAR) served as co-chairs for the workshop. The Organizing committee also included Dave Lawrence (NCAR), Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR), George Hurtt (University of Maryland), & Detlef van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environmental Change). The meeting included the participation of 22 scientists representing many of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 110 participant days.

Evaluating Impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow using SWAT and land use models based CESM1-CAM5 Climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu

2015-04-01

Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change

Developing pathways to low carbon land-based passenger transport in Great Britain by 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bristow, Abigail L.; Tight, Miles; Pridmore, Alison; May, Anthony D.

2008-01-01

The key aim of this paper is to examine strategic pathways to low carbon personal transport in Britain and to compare these with the current trajectory of transport policy. A 2050 baseline was established using trend information, forecasts and best evidence from the literature on response to policy intervention. A range of strategies are tested including: technological development, pricing, public transport and soft measures. We conclude that even dramatic technological advance cannot meet the more stringent targets for carbon reduction in the absence of considerable behavioural change. The most promising combinations of measures involve clear price signals to encourage both a reduction in the use of motorised transport and the development and purchase of more efficient vehicles; decarbonisation of public transport and facilitating measures to enhance access whilst reducing the need for motorised travel

Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in the Mancha Oriental system (Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; García-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.

2015-04-01

Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands, which will alter the hydrologic cycle and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting groundwater recharge and discharge conditions under future climate and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system (MOS), one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, the transformation from dry to irrigated lands during the last decades has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. On the one hand, streamflow depletion is compromising the dependent ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. On the other hand, the intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. In this paper we analyze the potential impacts of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modeling framework that consists in sequentially coupling a watershed agriculturally based hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) with a groundwater flow model developed in MODFLOW, and with a nitrate mass-transport model in MT3DMS. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE)

Science.gov (United States)

Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologi...

Applying a Problem Based Learning Approach to Land Management Education

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enemark, Stig

Land management covers a wide range activities associated with the management of land and natural resources that are required to fulfil political objectives and achieve sustainable development. This paper presents an overall understanding of the land management paradigm and the benefits of good...... land governance to society. A land administration system provides a country with the infrastructure to implement land-related policies and land management strategies. By applying this land management profile to surveying education, this paper suggests that there is a need to move away from an exclusive...... engineering focus toward adopting an interdisciplinary and problem-based approach to ensure that academic programmes can cope with the wide range of land administration functions and challenges. An interdisciplinary approach to surveying education calls for the need to address issues and problems in a real...

Analysis of Global Sensitivity of Landing Variables on Landing Loads and Extreme Values of the Loads in Carrier-Based Aircrafts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jin Zhou

2018-01-01

Full Text Available When a carrier-based aircraft is in arrested landing on deck, the impact loads on landing gears and airframe are closely related to landing states. The distribution and extreme values of the landing loads obtained during life-cycle analysis provide an important basis for buffering parameter design and fatigue design. In this paper, the effect of the multivariate distribution was studied based on military standards and guides. By establishment of a virtual prototype, the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (EFAST method is applied on sensitivity analysis of landing variables. The results show that sinking speed and rolling angle are the main influencing factors on the landing gear’s course load and vertical load; sinking speed, rolling angle, and yawing angle are the main influencing factors on the landing gear’s lateral load; and sinking speed is the main influencing factor on the barycenter overload. The extreme values of loads show that the typical condition design in the structural strength analysis is safe. The maximum difference value of the vertical load of the main landing gear is 12.0%. This research may provide some reference for structure design of landing gears and compilation of load spectrum for carrier-based aircrafts.

The Influence of Built-Form and Land Use on Mode Choice

OpenAIRE

Reilly, Michael; Landis, John

2003-01-01

Although land use planning and urban design are increasingly touted as powerful tools for influencing transportation behavior, only modest empirical evidence for this relationship exists. Here, the results from a two-day activity diary are combined with innovative GIS-based measures of urban form and land use pattern to statistically test potential influences on non-commute home-based mode choice. Local measurement at multiple scales is promoted as a realistic means of quantifying an individu...

DEVELOPMENT OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT: FUTURE CHALLENGES OF LIEPAJA` S TRAM (LATVIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diāna Līduma

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Transport has always had an important role in the lifestyle of population and development of economy, but the public transport performs mainly the social function – it works for the benefit of the society. Development and quality of services must be provided also for the public transport companies, however, we meet different problems related to infrastructure and traffic for this to happen. To successfully manage and develop a public transport company, it is essential to change the thinking of people in favour of the public transport, not for the personal transport. It is necessary to ensure the sustainability as the main value, which means selection of the right public transport system. The authors relied on the experience of formation of a unified transport system in the world and Latvia’s largest cities’ strategic vision for public transport development. Taking into account the fact that Liepaja is one the three cities in Latvia where the public transport service is provided by a tram, an empiric research was made. Its aim was to clarify the opinion of the inhabitants of Liepaja, regarding the services provided by Liepaja trams, regarding the possible improvements and necessity for development. 200 inhabitants of Liepaja were questioned within the framework of the research. The results of the research revealed that although the tram provides daily the inhabitants of Liepaja with the movement possibilities, unfortunately inhabitants are not ready yet to replace their personal transport with the public transport – tram to settle their daily problems. The results of the research allowed to conclude that future development possibilities and perspectives of the tram in Liepaja City can be related mainly with the creation of a new route, purchase of new carriages and unified public transport system in Liepaja City.

As if Kyoto mattered: The clean development mechanism and transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Christopher Zegras, P.

2007-01-01

Transportation is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the most rapidly growing anthropogenic source. In the future, the developing world will account for the largest share of transport GHG increases. Four basic components drive transportation energy consumption and GHG emissions: activities (A), mode share (S), fuel intensity (I) and fuel choice (F) (ASIF). Currently, the Kyoto Protocol's clean development mechanism (CDM) serves as the main international market-based tool designed to reduce GHG emissions from the developing world. Theoretically, the CDM has the dual purpose of helping developing countries achieve 'sustainable development' goals and industrialized countries meet their Kyoto emissions reduction commitments. This paper reviews overall CDM activities and transportation CDM activities to date and then presents findings from three case studies of transportation CDM possibilities examined with the ASIF framework in Santiago de Chile. The analysis suggests that bus technology switch (I) provides a fairly good project fit for the CDM, while options aimed at inducing mode share (S) to bicycle, or modifying travel demand via land use changes (ASI) face considerable challenges. The implications of the findings for the CDM and the 'post-Kyoto' world are discussed

User-based representation of time-resolved multimodal public transportation networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Alessandretti, Laura; Karsai, Márton; Gauvin, Laetitia

2016-07-01

Multimodal transportation systems, with several coexisting services like bus, tram and metro, can be represented as time-resolved multilayer networks where the different transportation modes connecting the same set of nodes are associated with distinct network layers. Their quantitative description became possible recently due to openly accessible datasets describing the geo-localized transportation dynamics of large urban areas. Advancements call for novel analytics, which combines earlier established methods and exploits the inherent complexity of the data. Here, we provide a novel user-based representation of public transportation systems, which combines representations, accounting for the presence of multiple lines and reducing the effect of spatial embeddedness, while considering the total travel time, its variability across the schedule, and taking into account the number of transfers necessary. After the adjustment of earlier techniques to the novel representation framework, we analyse the public transportation systems of several French municipal areas and identify hidden patterns of privileged connections. Furthermore, we study their efficiency as compared to the commuting flow. The proposed representation could help to enhance resilience of local transportation systems to provide better design policies for future developments.

Integration between terrestrial-based and satellite-based land mobile communications systems

Science.gov (United States)

Arcidiancono, Antonio

1990-01-01

A survey is given of several approaches to improving the performance and marketability of mobile satellite systems (MSS). The provision of voice/data services in the future regional European Land Mobile Satellite System (LMSS), network integration between the Digital Cellular Mobile System (GSM) and LMSS, the identification of critical areas for the implementation of integrated GSM/LMSS areas, space segment scenarios, LMSS for digital trunked private mobile radio (PMR) services, and code division multiple access (CDMA) techniques for a terrestrial/satellite system are covered.

Land Use, Climate and Transport of Nutrients: Evidence Emerging from the Lake Vicocase Study

Science.gov (United States)

Recanatesi, F.; Ripa, M. N.; Leone, A.; Luigi, Perini; Luca, Salvati

2013-08-01

Soil erosion is a Europe-wide problem, causing both loss of soil fertility and pollution due to nutrient transport into water bodies. This process is particularly important in the Mediterranean area, where the climate, characterised by long periods of drought followed by intense precipitation, favours soil erosion. Research carried out in this field has amply described this process, showing that climate and land use/land cover (LU/LC) are the two main factors regulating this phenomenon. However, the interaction between these factors is complex and experimental research is needed to understand the nutrient loads deriving from different land uses. This paper shows the results of a long-term monitoring project carried out in the Lake Vico basin (central Italy), using high resolution data and runoff samples to determine the phosphorus (P) export from four different LU/LC classes resulting from the same climatic event. The results highlight the fundamental role that LU/LC plays in terms of phosphorus load. Furthermore, the results appear to indicate that the maximum rainfall registered for 30' ( I 30, max), rather than the total quantity of precipitation, has the greatest effect on levels of erosion, and consequently on the migration of nutrients rather than the total quantity of precipitation can affect on erosion and therefore the migration of nutrients. These data could contribute to scientific planning support for land management choices aimed at controlling water pollution from non-point pollution sources.

Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; Eupen, van Michiel; Bloh, von Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

2016-01-01

Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a

Simulating the conversion of rural settlements to town land based on multi-agent systems and cellular automata.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yaolin; Kong, Xuesong; Liu, Yanfang; Chen, Yiyun

2013-01-01

Rapid urbanization in China has triggered the conversion of land from rural to urban use, particularly the conversion of rural settlements to town land. This conversion is the result of the joint effects of the geographic environment and agents involving the government, investors, and farmers. To understand the dynamic interaction dominated by agents and to predict the future landscape of town expansion, a small town land-planning model is proposed based on the integration of multi-agent systems (MAS) and cellular automata (CA). The MAS-CA model links the decision-making behaviors of agents with the neighbor effect of CA. The interaction rules are projected by analyzing the preference conflicts among agents. To better illustrate the effects of the geographic environment, neighborhood, and agent behavior, a comparative analysis between the CA and MAS-CA models in three different towns is presented, revealing interesting patterns in terms of quantity, spatial characteristics, and the coordinating process. The simulation of rural settlements conversion to town land through modeling agent decision and human-environment interaction is very useful for understanding the mechanisms of rural-urban land-use change in developing countries. This process can assist town planners in formulating appropriate development plans.

Land Use Change Modelling in R

Science.gov (United States)

Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.

2014-12-01

Land use activities, through the provision of natural resources, are essential to human existence. In many regions land use change is degrading biodiversity and threatening the sustainability of ecosystem services upon which communities and livelihoods depend. Spatially explicit land use change models are widely used to understand and quantify key processes that affect land use change and make predictions about past and future change. These models typically include a module to estimate the suitability of different locations to particular land use types based on biophysical and socioeconomic predictor variables and a module to allocate change spatially. They are commonly implemented in languages such as C/C++ and Fortran and made available as standalone applications or through proprietary GIS. In many cases the models are released under closed source licences, limiting the reproducibility of scientific results and making model comparison difficult. This work presents a new R package providing methods and classes to support land use change modelling and model development and comparison within the open source R statistical computing environment. The package makes use of existing R implementations of methods such as random forests and recursive partitioning and regression trees to estimate location suitability, as well as providing methods for statistical model building and evaluation. Currently two spatial allocation methods are provided: the first based on the widely used and tested CLUE-S algorithm and the second a novel stochastic procedure developed for large scale applications. Some common tools for evaluating allocation results are implemented. It is hoped that the package will provide a framework for the development of new routines that can be incorporated into future releases of the code.

Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America.