WorldWideScience

Sample records for future land requirements

  1. Far land near future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jagt, van der P.D.; Holst, van F.; Thomas, J.; Brink, van den A.; Reyniers, J.; Jongeneelen, O.; Dijk, van T.; Timmermans, W.; Daugaliene, V.; Crecente, R.; Ambar, M.; Flachner, Z.

    2007-01-01

    Land development: expecting the unexpected. Future approaches to land development. Thos book is the result of an EU project. With Dutch contributions: Meerstad, Groningen (PPS) and Klarenbeek, Amsterdam (zorglandgoed)

  2. Future land use plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-08-31

    The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) changing mission, coupled with the need to apply appropriate cleanup standards for current and future environmental restoration, prompted the need for a process to determine preferred Future Land Uses for DOE-owned sites. DOE began the ``Future Land Use`` initiative in 1994 to ensure that its cleanup efforts reflect the surrounding communities` interests in future land use. This plan presents the results of a study of stakeholder-preferred future land uses for the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), located in central Long Island, New York. The plan gives the Laboratory`s view of its future development over the next 20 years, as well as land uses preferred by the community were BNL ever to cease operations as a national laboratory (the post-BNL scenario). The plan provides an overview of the physical features of the site including its history, topography, geology/hydrogeology, biological inventory, floodplains, wetlands, climate, and atmosphere. Utility systems and current environmental operations are described including waste management, waste water treatment, hazardous waste management, refuse disposal and ground water management. To complement the physical descriptions of the site, demographics are discussed, including overviews of the surrounding areas, laboratory population, and economic and non-economic impacts.

  3. Future land use plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE) changing mission, coupled with the need to apply appropriate cleanup standards for current and future environmental restoration, prompted the need for a process to determine preferred Future Land Uses for DOE-owned sites. DOE began the ''Future Land Use'' initiative in 1994 to ensure that its cleanup efforts reflect the surrounding communities' interests in future land use. This plan presents the results of a study of stakeholder-preferred future land uses for the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), located in central Long Island, New York. The plan gives the Laboratory's view of its future development over the next 20 years, as well as land uses preferred by the community were BNL ever to cease operations as a national laboratory (the post-BNL scenario). The plan provides an overview of the physical features of the site including its history, topography, geology/hydrogeology, biological inventory, floodplains, wetlands, climate, and atmosphere. Utility systems and current environmental operations are described including waste management, waste water treatment, hazardous waste management, refuse disposal and ground water management. To complement the physical descriptions of the site, demographics are discussed, including overviews of the surrounding areas, laboratory population, and economic and non-economic impacts

  4. Variations in land requirements for meat production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elferink, E. V.; Nonhebel, S.

    2007-01-01

    Production of meat requires substantial amounts of feed grains which in turn require vast amounts of land. Future population growth and increase in consumption will raise the demand for meat and with it the land required for meat production. This paper analyses the various factors that affect land

  5. Future Home Network Requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Charbonnier, Benoit; Wessing, Henrik; Lannoo, Bart

    This paper presents the requirements for future Home Area Networks (HAN). Firstly, we discuss the applications and services as well as their requirements. Then, usage scenarios are devised to establish a first specification for the HAN. The main requirements are an increased bandwidth (towards 1...

  6. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

  7. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  8. Global Land Transport Infrastructure Requirements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-06-01

    Over the next four decades, global passenger and freight travel is expected to double over 2010 levels. In order to accommodate this growth, it is expected that the world will need to add nearly 25 million paved road lane-kilometres and 335 000 rail track kilometres. In addition, it is expected that between 45 000 square kilometres and 77 000 square kilometres of new parking spaces will be added to accommodate vehicle stock growth. These land transport infrastructure additions, when combined with operations, maintenance and repairs, are expected to cost as much as USD 45 trillion by 2050. This publication reports on the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) analysis of infrastructure requirements to support projected road and rail travel through 2050, using the IEA Mobility Model. It considers land transport infrastructure additions to support travel growth to 2050. It also considers potential savings if countries pursue “avoid and shift” policies: in this scenario, cumulative global land transport infrastructure spending could decrease as much as USD 20 trillion by 2050 over baseline projections.

  9. Land Use and Land Cover - Volusia County Future Land Use (FLU) 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — Volusia County Future Land Use 2010. This is the original land use map for 2010. It was drafted for the comprehensive plan in 1990 and contains adopted amendments.

  10. KamLAND Results and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitsui, Tadao; KamLAND Collaboration

    2011-12-01

    KamLAND results, current status, and near-future plans are reviewed. For reactor and geoneutrino physics, reduction of the systematic uncertainties is underway, while taking subsequent data. For the detection of 7Be solar neutrinos, purification of the scintillator by distillation will start soon.

  11. Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

    2016-07-01

    Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. The impact of Future Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Atmospheric Chemistry-Climate Interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ganzeveld, L.N.; Bouwman, L.

    2010-01-01

    To demonstrate potential future consequences of land cover and land use changes beyond those for physical climate and the carbon cycle, we present an analysis of large-scale impacts of land cover and land use changes on atmospheric chemistry using the chemistry-climate model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy

  13. Global Water Availability and Requirements for Future Food Production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Hoff, H.; Biemans, H.; Fader, M.; Waha, K.

    2011-01-01

    This study compares, spatially explicitly and at global scale, per capita water availability and water requirements for food production presently (1971-2000) and in the future given climate and population change (2070-99). A vegetation and hydrology model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) was

  14. Investigating land dynamics: future research perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldkamp, A.

    2009-01-01

    Research on land dynamics still has many unresolved fundamental issues. A multi-scape system approach is presented that can serve as a simple qualitative framework to identify relevant issues. Land can appear in different realities as different phenomena, which are referred to as 'scapes'. Because

  15. Key requirements for future control room functionality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tornelli, Carlo; Zuelli, Roberto; Marinelli, Mattia

    2016-01-01

    system operation as well as experiences and results from other European projects. On the other hand, it analyses what requirements for future control rooms arise from the ELECTRA proposed control solutions. Hence, different points of view are taken into account. The ELECTRA Use Cases (UCs...... requirements for the future control centres discussed within this report. The analysis of what happened before the European system disturbance occurred on 4th November 2006 and of the existing trends by vendors helped T8.1 in the definition of the requirements for the future control centres. Volunteer......This internal report provides the key requirements for the future control centres. R8.1 represents the starting point of WP8 activities and wants to achieve a double objective. On the one hand it collects general requirements on future control centres emerging from the general trends in power...

  16. Potential future land use threats to California's protected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Tamara Sue; Sleeter, Benjamin Michael; Davis, Adam Wilkinson

    2015-01-01

    Increasing pressures from land use coupled with future changes in climate will present unique challenges for California’s protected areas. We assessed the potential for future land use conversion on land surrounding existing protected areas in California’s twelve ecoregions, utilizing annual, spatially explicit (250 m) scenario projections of land use for 2006–2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios to examine future changes in development, agriculture, and logging. We calculated a conversion threat index (CTI) for each unprotected pixel, combining land use conversion potential with proximity to protected area boundaries, in order to identify ecoregions and protected areas at greatest potential risk of proximal land conversion. Our results indicate that California’s Coast Range ecoregion had the highest CTI with competition for extractive logging placing the greatest demand on land in close proximity to existing protected areas. For more permanent land use conversions into agriculture and developed uses, our CTI results indicate that protected areas in the Central California Valley and Oak Woodlands are most vulnerable. Overall, the Eastern Cascades, Central California Valley, and Oak Woodlands ecoregions had the lowest areal percent of protected lands and highest conversion threat values. With limited resources and time, rapid, landscape-level analysis of potential land use threats can help quickly identify areas with higher conversion probability of future land use and potential changes to both habitat and potential ecosystem reserves. Given the broad range of future uncertainties, LULC projections are a useful tool allowing land managers to visualize alternative landscape futures, improve planning, and optimize management practices.

  17. ATLAS Future Framework Requirements Group Report

    CERN Document Server

    The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    The Future Frameworks Requirements Group was constituted in Summer 2013 to consider and summarise the framework requirements from trigger and offline for configuring, scheduling and monitoring the data processing software needed by the ATLAS experiment. The principal motivation for such a re-examination arises from the current and anticipated evolution of CPUs, where multiple cores, hyper-threading and wide vector registers require a shift to a concurrent programming model. Such a model requires extensive changes in the current Gaudi/Athena frameworks and offers the opportunity to consider how HLT and offline processing can be better accommodated within the ATLAS framework. This note contains the report of the Future Frameworks Requirements Group.

  18. Does reading scenarios of future land use changes affect willingness to participate in land use planning?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelle L. Johnson; Kathleen P. Bell; Mario F. Teisl

    2016-01-01

    Scenarios of future outcomes often provide context for policy decisions and can be a form of science communication, translating complex and uncertain relationships into stories for a broader audience. We conducted a survey experiment (n = 270) to test the effects of reading land use change scenarios on willingness to participate in land use planning activities. In the...

  19. Modelling land Use Change : Improving the prediction of future land use patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Nijs, A.C.M.

    2009-01-01

    Modelling land Use Change: Improving the prediction of future land use patterns. Man has been altering his living environment since prehistoric times and will continue to do so. It is predicted that by 2030 about 90,000 ha will be needed for residential developments in the Netherlands and 55,000 ha

  20. Future land-use related water demand in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

    2016-01-01

    Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed (municipal and industrial) and agricultural land use to estimate associated water use demand from 2012 to 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total water use was projected to increase 1.8 billion cubic meters(+4.1%) driven primarily by urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Only if currently mandated 25% reductions in municipal water use are continuously implemented would water demand in 2062 balance to water use levels in 2012. This is the first modeling effort of its kind to examine regional land-use related water demand incorporating historical trends of both developed and agricultural land uses.

  1. 'Underutilised' agricultural land: its definitions, potential use for future biomass production and its environmental implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyake, Saori; Bargiel, Damian

    2017-04-01

    A growing bioeconomy and increased demand for biomass products on food, health, fibre, industrial products and energy require land resources for feedstock production. It has resulted in significant environmental and socio-economic challenges on a global scale. As a result, consideration of such effects of land use change (LUC) from biomass production (particularly for biofuel feedstock) has emerged as an important area of policy and research, and several potential solutions have been proposed to minimise such adverse LUC effects. One of these solutions is the use of lands that are not in production or not suitable for food crop production, such as 'marginal', 'degraded', 'abandoned' and 'surplus' agricultural lands for future biomass production. The terms referring to these lands are usually associated with the potential production of 'marginal crops', which can grow in marginal conditions (e.g. poor soil fertility, low rainfall, drought) without much water and agrochemical inputs. In our research, we referred to these lands as 'underutilised' agricultural land and attempted to define them for our case study areas located in Australia and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our goal is to identify lands that can be used for future biomass production and to evaluate their environmental implications, particularly impacts related to biodiversity, water and soil at a landscape scale. The identification of these lands incorporates remote sensing and spatially explicit approaches. Our findings confirmed that there was no universal or single definition of the term 'underutilised' agricultural land as the definitions significantly vary by country and region depending not only on the biophysical environment but also political, institutional and socio-economic conditions. Moreover, our results highlighted that the environmental implications of production of biomass on 'underutilised' agricultural land for biomass production are highly controversial. Thus land use change

  2. Legal Consideration of Future Generations and its Influence on Land Ownership: Perpetuity for the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquim Basso

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It has become increasingly common legal provisions that expressly deal with future generations and their necessary protection. The combination of issues concerning future generations and agricultural activities, despite their undeniable relevance, has been a gap in scientific research in the legal area. The objective of this article is to discuss the legal consideration of future generations and determine their influence on the Agrarian Law, in particular with regard to land ownership. We conclude that the legal consideration of future generations is imperative observance in the context of sustainability and is able to reframe the notion of land ownership.

  3. Land-use regime shifts: an analytical framework and agenda for future land-use research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navin Ramankutty

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A key research frontier in global change research lies in understanding processes of land change to inform predictive models of future land states. We believe that significant advances in the field are hampered by limited attention being paid to critical points of change termed land-use regime shifts. We present an analytical framework for understanding land-use regime shifts. We survey historical events of land change and perform in-depth case studies of soy and shrimp development in Latin America to demonstrate the role of preconditions, triggers, and self-reinforcing processes in driving land-use regime shifts. Whereas the land-use literature demonstrates a good understanding of within-regime dynamics, our understanding of the drivers of land-use regime shifts is limited to ex post facto explications. Theoretical and empirical advances are needed to better understand the dynamics and implications of land-use regime shifts. We draw insights from the regime-shifts literature to propose a research agenda for studying land change.

  4. Planning to meet future manpower requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deutsch, R.W.

    1975-01-01

    Most organizations in the nuclear industry will have to hire inexperienced personnel who may also lack academic qualifications in order to satisfy their future manpower requirements. It will be necessary to utilize appropriate in-house training programs to prepare personnel for particular job responsibilities as well as meet quality assurance requirements that satisfy NRC and ANSI standards. In particular, these programs will have to be directed at providing future sources of engineers, operators, and technicians. Specific programs for engineers, commercial plant operators, and technicians and maintenance personnel are described. It is the responsibility of management of major organizations in the industry to initiate and implement training programs that will provide the necessary numbers of trained personnel

  5. Land and Water requirements for meat production in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zheng, Wanli

    2010-01-01

    China will face a challenge for meat production with its available land and water. The production of meat requires substantial amounts of livestock feed, which in turn require vast amounts of land and water to produce it. As China has continued to develop

  6. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time. This methodology was then expanded and utilized to characterize the changing hydrology on the South Platte River Basin. Future urban growth is represented by housingdensity maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land‐Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and describe a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as anapproach to evaluate basin‐wide impacts of development on water‐quantity and ‐quality, 2) present initial results from the application of the methodology to

  7. The Effect of No Agricultural Productivity Growth on Future Land Use and Climate through Biogeophysical Mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies-Barnard, T.; Valdes, P. J.; Singarayer, J. S.; Jones, C.

    2012-12-01

    Future land use and the consequent land cover change will have a significant impact on future climate through biogeophysical (albedo, surface roughness and latent heat transfer, etc.) as well as biogeochemical (greenhouse gas emissions etc.) mechanisms. One of the major determinants of the extent of land use induced land cover change is the agricultural productivity growth within the socio-economic models used for developing the RCP scenarios. There are considerable uncertainties in the size of agricultural productivity under climate change, as yields are projected to vary spatially in signal and strength. Previous climate modeling work has considered the impacts to the carbon cycle of different levels of agricultural productivity growth, but has failed to consider the biogeophysical effects of the land use induced land cover change on climate. Here we examine the climate impacts of the assumption of agricultural productivity growth and business as usual land use. The effects are considered through the biogeophysical land use induced land cover change, using the Hadley Centre climate model HadGEM2. The model simulations use the set biogeochemical climate forcing of the RCP 4.5 scenario, but the biogeophysical land use change specification is altered over a 100 year simulation. Simulations are run with combinations of no land use change; standard RCP 4.5 land use change; business as usual land use change; and zero agricultural productivity growth. The key effect of no agricultural productivity growth is that more cropland is required to feed the same population, necessitating cropland expansion. The expansion of cropland and consequent deforestation increases the albedo and gives an extensive cooling effect in the northern hemisphere (up to 2°C). Differences in global mean temperature between the zero agricultural productivity growth with business as usual land use change specified run and the standard RCP 4.5 run are -0.2°C by 2040 and -0.7°C by 2100. There is

  8. Pollution, contamination and future land use at Brookhaven National Laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, J; Gochfeld, M; Shukla, S; Jeitner, C; Ramos, R; Tsipoura, Nellie; Donio, M

    2008-10-01

    Scientists interested in contamination normally deal only with pollution itself, not with people's perceptions of pollution or the relationship between pollution and land use. The overall objective of this article was to examine the relationship between people's perceptions of pollution and their views on future land use. People were interviewed at an Earth Day Festival near the Department of Energy's Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) on Long Island, New York. On an open-ended question, people thought that BNL should be left as it is, or maintained as a preserve, park or conservation area, or used for environmental research. Almost no one thought that it should be used for housing or industrial purposes. When asked to rate a list of possible future land uses, maintaining BNL as a National Environmental Research Park for research and for recreation were rated the highest (nuclear storage was rated the lowest). This was consistent with the subjects' views that pollution was the greatest concern about BNL. The congruence between perceptions about concerns or problems and future land use preferences suggests a unified view of management of contaminated sites, such as BNL, at least among a group of people whose environmental interests were evident by their presence at the event.

  9. NASA's future space power needs and requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnyer, A. D.; Sovie, Ronald J.

    1990-01-01

    The National Space Policy of 1988 established the U.S.'s long-range civil space goals, and has served to guide NASA's recent planning for future space mission operations. One of the major goals was to extend the human presence beyond earth's boundaries and to advance the scientific knowledge of the solar system. A broad spectrum of potential civil space mission opportunities and interests are currently being investigated by NASA to meet the espoused goals. Participation in many of these missions requires power systems with capabilities far beyond what exists today. In other mission examples, advanced power systems technology could enhance mission performance significantly. Power system requirements and issues that need resolution to ensure eventual mission accomplishment are addressed, in conjunction with the ongoing NASA technology development efforts and the need for even greater innovative efforts to match the ambitious solar exploration mission goals. Particular attention is given to potential lunar surface operations and technology goals, based on investigations to date. It is suggested that the nuclear reactor power systems can best meet long-life requirements as well as dramatically reduce the earth-surface-to-lunar-surface transportation costs due to the lunar day/night cycle impact on the solar system's energy storage mass requirements. The state of the art of candidate power systems and elements for the lunar application and the respective exploration technology goals for mission life requirements from 10 to 25 years are examined.

  10. Livestock and human use of land: Productivity trends and dietary choices as drivers of future land and carbon dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Humpenöder, Florian; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Stevanović, Miodrag

    2017-12-01

    Land use change has been the primary driving force of human alteration of terrestrial ecosystems. With 80% of agricultural land dedicated to livestock production, the sector is an important lever to attenuate land requirements for food production and carbon emissions from land use change. In this study, we quantify impacts of changing human diets and livestock productivity on land dynamics and depletion of carbon stored in vegetation, litter and soils. Across all investigated productivity pathways, lower consumption of livestock products can substantially reduce deforestation (47-55%) and cumulative carbon losses (34-57%). On the supply side, already minor productivity growth in extensive livestock production systems leads to substantial CO2 emission abatement, but the emission saving potential of productivity gains in intensive systems is limited, also involving trade-offs with soil carbon stocks. If accounting for uncertainties related to future trade restrictions, crop yields and pasture productivity, the range of projected carbon savings from changing diets increases to 23-78%. Highest abatement of carbon emissions (63-78%) can be achieved if reduced consumption of animal-based products is combined with sustained investments into productivity increases in plant production. Our analysis emphasizes the importance to integrate demand- and supply-side oriented mitigation strategies and to combine efforts in the crop and livestock sector to enable synergies for climate protection.

  11. Trading Land: A Review of Approaches to Accounting for Upstream Land Requirements of Traded Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffartzik, Anke; Haberl, Helmut; Kastner, Thomas; Wiedenhofer, Dominik; Eisenmenger, Nina; Erb, Karl-Heinz

    2015-10-01

    Land use is recognized as a pervasive driver of environmental impacts, including climate change and biodiversity loss. Global trade leads to "telecoupling" between the land use of production and the consumption of biomass-based goods and services. Telecoupling is captured by accounts of the upstream land requirements associated with traded products, also commonly referred to as land footprints. These accounts face challenges in two main areas: (1) the allocation of land to products traded and consumed and (2) the metrics to account for differences in land quality and land-use intensity. For two main families of accounting approaches (biophysical, factor-based and environmentally extended input-output analysis), this review discusses conceptual differences and compares results for land footprints. Biophysical approaches are able to capture a large number of products and different land uses, but suffer from a truncation problem. Economic approaches solve the truncation problem, but are hampered by the limited disaggregation of sectors and products. In light of the conceptual differences, the overall similarity of results generated by both types of approaches is remarkable. Diametrically opposed results for some of the world's largest producers and consumers of biomass-based products, however, make interpretation difficult. This review aims to provide clarity on some of the underlying conceptual issues of accounting for land footprints.

  12. Energy, material and land requirement of a fusion plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schleisner, Liselotte; Hamacher, T.; Cabal, H.

    2001-01-01

    requirement of a fission plant by a factor of two. The material requirement for a fusion plant is roughly 2000 t/MW and little less than 1000 t/MW for a fission plant. The land requirement for a fusion plant is roughly 300 m2/MW and the land requirement for a fission plant is a little less than 200 m2/MW......The energy and material necessary to construct a power plant and the land covered by the plant are indicators for the ‘consumption’ of environment by a certain technology. Based on current knowledge, estimations show that the material necessary to construct a fusion plant will exceed the material...

  13. NativeView: Our Land, Our People, Our Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, T.

    2006-05-01

    The objective of this discussion is to (1) discuss the chasm between the breadth of Tribal land and resource to be sustained compared to the finite number of Tribal people trained in the sciences; (2) illustrate the need for integrating scientific knowledge with cultural knowledge; and (3) discuss the emergence of NativeView as Tribal College (TCUs) initiative leading the integration of geoscience and geospatial technology (GIS, Remote Sensing) with cultural knowledge to meet the growing needs of indigenous communities. It's about our land, our people and the need for highly trained individuals to sustainable and manage our resources for the future. There is a tremendous gap between total acreage of land owned or managed and the level of education obtained by indigenous people. In the United States today, American Indians and Alaskan Natives account for less than one percent of the total population, yet are responsible for more than five percent of the total land area. In North Dakota, there are over 54 thousand American Indians responsible for more than 3.8 million acres of Tribal Land. In contrast, less than 15 percent of indigenous people finish a Bachelor's degree of any kind and far fewer finish a science degree that would help them become more effective and responsible land managers. This poses an important dilemma. How will the Tribes meet (1) the resource needs of a growing population, (2) the demand for a skilled workforce, and (3) resource management goals in ways that contribute to Tribal infrastructure and equate to sustainable resource management? The integration of geoscience and geospatial technologies into the curriculum of Tribal Colleges (TCU's) has quietly emerged as one of the leading initiatives across Indian Country. These skills are widely recognized as a vehicle to empower our constituents in the sciences, in the cultural values and the traditional land ethic that defines us as a people. NativeView has taken the lead in working with the

  14. The future of irrigated agriculture under environmental flow requirements restrictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor, Amandine; Palazzo, Amanda; Havlik, Petr; Kabat, Pavel; Obersteiner, Michael; Ludwig, Fulco

    2016-04-01

    Water is not an infinite resource and demand from irrigation, household and industry is constantly increasing. This study focused on including global water availability including environmental flow requirements with water withdrawal from irrigation and other sectors at a monthly time-step in the GLOBIOM model. This model allows re-adjustment of land-use allocation, crop management, consumption and international trade. The GLOBIOM model induces an endogenous change in water price depending on water supply and demand. In this study, the focus was on how the inclusion of water resources affects land-use and, in particular, how global change will influence repartition of irrigated and rainfed lands at global scale. We used the climate change scenario including a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 (RCP8.5), the socio-economic scenario (SSP2: middle-of-road), and the environmental flow method based on monthly flow allocation (the Variable Monthly Flow method) with high and low restrictions. Irrigation withdrawals were adjusted to a monthly time-step to account for biophysical water limitations at finer time resolution. Our results show that irrigated land might decrease up to 40% on average depending on the choice of EFR restrictions. Several areas were identified as future hot-spots of water stress such as the Mediterranean and Middle-East regions. Other countries were identified to be in safe position in terms of water stress such as North-European countries. Re-allocation of rainfed and irrigated land might be useful information for land-use planners and water managers at an international level to decide on appropriate legislations on climate change mitigation/adaptation when exposure and sensitivity to climate change is high and/or on adaptation measures to face increasing water demand. For example, some countries are likely to adopt measures to increase their water use efficiencies (irrigation system, soil and water conservation practices) to face water shortages, while

  15. USGS Historical, Current, and Projected Future Land Cover Mapping for the Northern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, T. L.; Gallant, A.; Sayler, K. L.

    2008-12-01

    Land cover in the Northern Great Plains has changed considerably in the last several decades. While a significant proportion of the landscape has been cultivated for over one hundred years, the intensity of cultivation, crop type, and management practices have changed in response to shifts in government policy, commodity prices, access to water, and technological advances. Changes in land cover impact a wide variety of ecosystem processes and services, including carbon balances, climate, hydrology and water quality, and biodiversity. A consistent record of historical land cover is required to understand relations between land- cover change and these ecological processes, while projections of future land cover are needed for planning and potential mitigation efforts. Several U.S. Geological Survey efforts have been completed or are ongoing in the Northern Great Plains, resulting in the compilation of an unmatched record of historical, current, and future land-cover information for the region. The USGS Land Cover Trends project is using the historical record of Landsat imagery and a robust sampling approach to examine the rates, causes, and consequences of contemporary (1973-2000) land-cover change on an ecoregional basis for the conterminous United States. Results from completed Trends analyses for Great Plains ecoregions revealed changes in the proportion and distribution of grassland/shrubland and agricultural uses during the study period; Some areas exhibited considerable loss in cultivated land after initiation of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in the mid 1980s. In recent years (post-2000), agricultural commodity prices have skyrocketed as food and energy compete for use of agricultural products, which in conjunction with the expiration of many CRP contracts, has led to expansion of cultivated land. In the coming decades, calls for U.S. energy independence and the development of biofuels from cellulosic stock could result in a transformation of the Great

  16. Historical and future perspectives of global soil carbon response to climate and land-use changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eglin, T.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S. L.; Barre, P.; Bellassen, V.; Cadule, P.; Chenu, C.; Gasser, T.; Koven, C.; Reichstein, M.; Smith, P.

    2010-11-01

    ABSTRACT In this paper, we attempt to analyse the respective influences of land-use and climate changes on the global and regional balances of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Two time periods are analysed: the historical period 1901-2000 and the period 2000-2100. The historical period is analysed using a synthesis of published data as well as new global and regional model simulations, and the future is analysed using models only. Historical land cover changes have resulted globally in SOC release into the atmosphere. This human induced SOC decrease was nearly balanced by the net SOC increase due to higher CO2 and rainfall. Mechanization of agriculture after the 1950s has accelerated SOC losses in croplands, whereas development of carbon-sequestering practices over the past decades may have limited SOC loss from arable soils. In some regions (Europe, China and USA), croplands are currently estimated to be either a small C sink or a small source, but not a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. In the future, according to terrestrial biosphere and climate models projections, both climate and land cover changes might cause a net SOC loss, particularly in tropical regions. The timing, magnitude, and regional distribution of future SOC changes are all highly uncertain. Reducing this uncertainty requires improving future anthropogenic CO2 emissions and land-use scenarios and better understanding of biogeochemical processes that control SOC turnover, for both managed and un-managed ecosystems.

  17. Philosophy and safety requirements for land-based nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kellermann, Otto

    1978-01-01

    The main ideas of safety philosophy for land-based nuclear installations are presented together with their background of protection goals. Today's requirements for design and quality assurance are deductively shown. Finally a proposition is made for a new balancing of safety philosophy according to the high safety level that nuclear installations have reached

  18. Influence of Climate-induced Vegetation Shifts on Future Land Use and Associated Land Carbon Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kicklighter, D. W.; Cai, Y.; Zhuang, Q.; PArfenova, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Melillo, J. M.; Reilly, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    Land ecosystems will be under a variety of pressures in the 21st century that will affect both their structure and function. Climate change and land-use change are likely to be the major pressures. Climate change will lead to changes in disturbance regimes such as fire and changes in the distribution of plant and animal species. Land-use changes, driven by population growth, resource consumption and a broad set of economic considerations, will interact with climate-driven changes to reshape the earth's landscape. Northern Eurasia is a region where these changes could be dramatic. Here we present results of an integrated assessment analysis for the region that examines the consequences of concurrent pressures on land ecosystems associated with climate and land-use changes. Preliminary results indicate that climate-induced vegetation shifts allow a larger increase in area (an additional 55-60%) used for food crop production in northern Eurasia by the middle of the 21st century than is projected when vegetation shifts are not considered. In addition, the area of pastures in the region increases by 15-17% and the area of managed forests increases by 6-215% with vegetation shifts whereas these areas decrease by 3-5% and 51-68%, respectively, over this same time period when no vegetation shifts are considered. Consideration of climate-induced vegetation shifts triples the estimated loss of terrestrial carbon under a no policy scenario and causes the region to become a carbon source rather than a carbon sink under a climate policy scenario. Thus, consideration of vegetation shifts should be included in future assessments of environmental change on terrestrial carbon budgets.

  19. Mars: Periglacial Morphology and Implications for Future Landing Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heldmann, Jennifer L.; Schurmeier, Lauren; McKay, Christopher; Davila, Alfonso; Stoker, Carol; Marinova, Margarita; Wilhelm, Mary Beth

    2015-01-01

    At the Mars Phoenix landing site and in much of the Martian northern plains, there is ice-cemented ground beneath a layer of dry permafrost. Unlike most permafrost on Earth, though, this ice is not liquid at any time of year. However, in past epochs at higher obliquity the surface conditions during summer may have resulted in warmer conditions and possible melting. This situation indicates that the ice-cemented ground in the north polar plains is likely to be a candidate for the most recently habitable place on Mars as near-surface ice likely provided adequate water activity approximately 5 Myr ago. The high elevation Dry Valleys of Antarctica provide the best analog on Earth of Martian ground ice. These locations are the only places on Earth where ice-cemented ground is found beneath dry permafrost. The Dry Valleys are a hyper-arid polar desert environment and in locations above 1500 m elevation, such as University Valley, air temperatures do not exceed 0 C. Thus, similarly to Mars, liquid water is largely absent here and instead the hydrologic cycle is dominated by frozen ice and vapor phase processes such as sublimation. These conditions make the high elevation Dry Valleys a key Mars analog location where periglacial processes and geomorphic features can be studied in situ. This talk will focus on studies of University Valley as a Mars analog for periglacial morphology and ice stability. We will review a landing site selection study encompassing this information gleaned from the Antarctic terrestrial analog studies plus Mars spacecraft data analysis to identify candidate landing sites for a future mission to search for life on Mars.

  20. Future Ground Requirements: 2012 and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-23

    for the Army of the future. EO sensors will also likely be transitioning from single spectral bands to multi-spectral or hyper-spectral sensing...signature treatments using man-made materials such as surplus conveyor belts are common examples of the next level of complexity of vehicle signature

  1. WORLD EXPERIENCE OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION LAND USE AND PROTECTIONTAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE REQUIREMENTS OF ECOLOGICAL SAFETY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    l. Sviridova

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Studied global trends of public administration land use and protection. In particular, zemleohoronni measures in the developed world are implemented through rural development policy, based on the conduct of the common agricultural policy, the creation of funds to support farmers, provide technical assistance, development of national programs and future development plans. For the European Union development policy documents on the development of land areas for 5-10 years - the overall trend. Land management activities are conducted in foreign countries on the basis of approved design documentation for land management different direction. Found that the use of land and resource potential in the world is subject to the requirements of environmental safety. Agrarian relations in these countries are based on incentive levers, with direct execution of the rules of use and protection of land. By 2020, the strategy of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union provides funding for joint agricultural market, direct subsidies to farmers and stimulate agricultural development. Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union for its activities fully demonstrates the ability of European economies to maintain the same level of development. State administration of environmental impact on the economic interests of the tenure or land use in countries with market economies include: tax exemptions (to make environmentally oriented activities, soft loans (available on interest rates for environmental investments, subsidies (for the implementation of environmental programs and subsidies (for growing products without pesticides entities. It is proved that the system of economic instruments in environmental policy Ukraine needs to improve, because it is poorly developed. Experience in other countries shows that as we strengthen land management tools (instruments for land administration, and its supporting tools to succeed in the system of rational land use

  2. Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radeloff, V C; Nelson, E; Plantinga, A J; Lewis, D J; Helmers, D; Lawler, J J; Withey, J C; Beaudry, F; Martinuzzi, S; Butsic, V; Lonsdorf, E; White, D; Polasky, S

    2012-04-01

    Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate

  3. Sediment processes in estuaries: Future research requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, K. R.

    1989-10-01

    The gaps in current understanding of the erosion, transport and deposition of sediment in estuaries are briefly reviewed. It is concluded that future work should give priority to (1) the formation, movement and entrainment of high concentration near bed layers; (2) particle interactions, including flocculation, cycling processes, and chemical and biological interactions; (3) intertidal mudflat processes, sediment exchanges in shallow water and wave induced mud transport; (4) development of improved parameterization of exchange processes for inclusion in 3D mathematical models. (5) development and use of new instrumentation for field measurements, especially of intermittent events, and over the long term. This work should be carried out within interdisciplinary studies involving physicists, sediment dynamicists, biologists, and chemists.

  4. Research Requirements for Future Visual Guidance Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-02-01

    technology offers significant potential enhancements to airport lighting technology . Fiber material is inherently cheap to produce, chemically neutral, and...formed recently to develop new standards for this type of lighting technology . The claims, if verified, would indicate that greatly increased economy of...traffic served. A requirement thus developed for operating airport lighting remotely by the user pilot. During the 1960’s and 1970’s air- to-ground lighting

  5. Using historical remote sensing image to predict future land use in Panjin city, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Jiujun

    2017-08-01

    The study discussed the feasibility of CA-Markov model in Panjin to simulated future land use. Results showed that the model could simulated the land use in Panjin well. And in the simulation in Panjin for 2018, human activities would affect the land use obivously, with the increase of all artificial land use area and the reduction of natural wetland such as reed marsh and suaeda heteroptera area. The protection for natural land use should be intensified to avoid the ecosystem worsening.

  6. MODELING OF FUTURE LAND COVER LAND USE CHANGE IN NORTH CAROLINA USING MARKOV CHAIN AND CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad Sayemuzzaman; Manoj K. Jha

    2014-01-01

    State wide variant topographic features in North Carolina attract the hydro-climatologist. There is none modeling study found that predict future Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) change for whole North Carolina. In this study, satellite-derived land cover maps of year 1992, 2001 and 2006 of North Carolina were integrated within the framework of the Markov-Cellular Automata (Markov-CA) model which combines the Markov chain and Cellular Automata (CA) techniques. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) was ...

  7. Coal Mining and Coal Seam Gas on Gomeroi country: Sacred lands, economic futures and shifting alliances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norman, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    North western NSW has seen a host of interest groups working in alliance opposing coal and coal seam gas mining. These groups - farmers, residents and environmentalists share concerns about the impact on the unique black soil and aquifer, of fossil fuel more broadly. While these shared alliances across class, gender and generations are emergent, Aboriginal citizens are uniquely placed in this contest over land, environment and resources. This paper sets out to show the historical and contemporary significance of the place of Aboriginal people in the debate over land use, arguing that, for the first time in history, Aboriginal worlds are central to community futures. In this space, new relationships are being forged and new discourse is required to comprehend the complex position Aboriginal citizens have as custodians of place and at the same time, the responsibility to provide for families and communities, otherwise excluded from the prevailing modern economy. With reference to the history of both relationship to land and land usage over Gomeroi country, and drawing on ethnographic along with archival research, this article seeks to contribute to a critical understanding of Aboriginal people's dealings in relation to their land, their cultural and economic interests with in an emerging regional coal economy, and in turn how they are redefining the context for energy resource extraction, and energy policy. - Highlights: • Aboriginal worlds are central to community futures in Australia. • Prospecting for coal and coal seam gas is forcing Aboriginal land holders into new relationships. • The nexus between the coal economy & Aboriginal self-determination is deeply contested. • New discourses are emerging to comprehend the custodianship of place in the context of mining.

  8. Requirements for future automotive batteries - a snapshot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karden, Eckhard; Shinn, Paul; Bostock, Paul; Cunningham, James; Schoultz, Evan; Kok, Daniel

    Introduction of new fuel economy, performance, safety, and comfort features in future automobiles will bring up many new, power-hungry electrical systems. As a consequence, demands on automotive batteries will grow substantially, e.g. regarding reliability, energy throughput (shallow-cycle life), charge acceptance, and high-rate partial state-of-charge (HRPSOC) operation. As higher voltage levels are mostly not an economically feasible alternative for the short term, the existing 14 V electrical system will have to fulfil these new demands, utilizing advanced 12 V energy storage devices. The well-established lead-acid battery technology is expected to keep playing a key role in this application. Compared to traditional starting-lighting-ignition (SLI) batteries, significant technological progress has been achieved or can be expected, which improve both performance and service life. System integration of the storage device into the vehicle will become increasingly important. Battery monitoring systems (BMS) are expected to become a commodity, penetrating the automotive volume market from both highly equipped premium cars and dedicated fuel-economy vehicles (e.g. stop/start). Battery monitoring systems will allow for more aggressive battery operating strategies, at the same time improving the reliability of the power supply system. Where a single lead-acid battery cannot fulfil the increasing demands, dual-storage systems may form a cost-efficient extension. They consist either of two lead-acid batteries or of a lead-acid battery plus another storage device.

  9. Strategic forces: Future requirements and options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Speed, R.D.

    1990-11-01

    In the wake of the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the apparent ending of the Cold War, there have been renewed calls for radical cuts in US strategic forces to levels far below the 10,000 or so warheads allowed each side under the current START proposal. Since it now appears that NATO for the first time will have the capability to defeat a Soviet conventional attack without the necessity of threatening to resort to nuclear weapons, this should pave the way for the rethinking of US strategy and the reduction of US strategic weapons requirements. In this new environment, it seems plausible that, with a modification of the Flexible Response doctrine to forego attempts to disarm the Soviet Union, deterrence could be maintained with 1500 or so survivable strategic weapons. With a new strategy that confined US strategic weapons to the role of deterring the use of nuclear weapons by other countries, a survivable force of about 500 weapons would seem sufficient. With this premise, the implications for the US strategic force structure are examined for two cases: a treaty that allows each side 3000 warheads and one that allows each side 1000 warheads. In Part 1 of this paper, the weapons requirements for deterrence are examined in light of recent changes in the geopolitical environment. In Part 2, it is assumed that the President and Congress have decided that deep cuts in strategic forces are acceptable. 128 refs., 12 figs., 12 tabs. (JF)

  10. Evolution of Requirements and Assumptions for Future Exploration Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Molly; Sargusingh, Miriam; Perry, Jay

    2017-01-01

    NASA programs are maturing technologies, systems, and architectures to enabling future exploration missions. To increase fidelity as technologies mature, developers must make assumptions that represent the requirements of a future program. Multiple efforts have begun to define these requirements, including team internal assumptions, planning system integration for early demonstrations, and discussions between international partners planning future collaborations. For many detailed life support system requirements, existing NASA documents set limits of acceptable values, but a future vehicle may be constrained in other ways, and select a limited range of conditions. Other requirements are effectively set by interfaces or operations, and may be different for the same technology depending on whether the hard-ware is a demonstration system on the International Space Station, or a critical component of a future vehicle. This paper highlights key assumptions representing potential life support requirements and explanations of the driving scenarios, constraints, or other issues that drive them.

  11. Evaluating Future Land-use Change Scenarios: Trade-offs between Bio-energy Demand, Food Production, and Carbon Emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

    2012-12-01

    In the construction of consistent future climate scenario, land use scenario has important role through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects on climate change. In terms of carbon emissions by the land-use change, relative importance may be high in the lower radiative forcing and lower carbon emission scenarios, which may use large amount of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). In this study, we first evaluated the CO2 emissions by land-use change in the 21st century using each RCPs scenarios. We use an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model VISIT, with book-keeping consideration of the carbon emission from deforested biomass and the regrowing uptake from abandoned cropland and pasture employing the gridded transition land-use data from RCPs. Effect of CO2 fertilization, land-use transition itself, and climate change are evaluated in the analysis. We found that constructing consistent land-use change carbon emission scenario with the gridded land-use change data requires precise considerations of effects of CO2 fertilization and climate change particularly for the regrowing uptake. Also, our result showed more emission of CO2 by the land-use change than the assumption in the integrated assessment model for RCP2.6 scenario. Then, we estimated the land-use area required to sustain the required biofuel production to match the assumption of BECCS use in RCPs with a global process based crop model. In the evaluation, we also estimated the further changes in carbon emissions by the required land-use change due to differences in crop yield assumptions, which also take into account of climate change. The trade-offs between land-use for crop, biocrop, and natural vegetation low-carbon scenario are discussed using the integrated terrestrial modeling approach.

  12. Working landscapes: the future of land use policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc Miller; Thomas E. Sheridan; Susan Charnley; Christy Plumer; Jim Lyons; Tom Martin

    2015-01-01

    The history of land use in the American West has traditionally been one of conflict, but the divisive relationships between ranchers, foresters, land management agencies, recreational users, and conservationists are transforming. Grassroots coalitions have developed among unlikely allies. Together, they are advocating for management approaches that incorporate local...

  13. Options for including all lands in a future greenhouse gas accounting framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cowie, Annette L.; Kirschbaum, Miko U.F.; Ward, Murray

    2007-01-01

    The current framework through which greenhouse gas emissions and removals in the land use sector are accounted under the Kyoto Protocol has several problems. They include a complex structure, onerous monitoring and reporting requirements, and potential for omission of some important fluxes. One solution that may overcome some of these problems is to include all lands and associated processes within a country's jurisdiction, rather than restrict accounting to specific nominated land categories or activities. Ideally, the accounting approach should cover all significant biospheric sources and sinks, avoid biased or unbalanced accounting, avoid leakage and require no arbitrary adjustments to remedy unintended consequences. Furthermore, accounting should focus on the direct human-induced component of biospheric emissions/removals so that debits/credits can be allocated equitably and provide appropriate incentives to adopt land-use management options with beneficial outcomes for the atmosphere. This paper focuses on biospheric emissions and removals resulting from carbon stock changes. It considers four alternative accounting options that include all land areas: Gross-Net Accounting, Net-Net Accounting, Net Accounting with Negotiated Baselines and the Average Carbon Stocks approach. Each option is described, and assessed with respect to defined criteria for effectiveness. Gross-Net Accounting and Net-Net Accounting do not adequately distinguish the anthropogenic component of carbon-stock changes from indirect and natural effects, so large undeserved credits or debits could be created. Under Net Accounting with Negotiated Baselines, countries' projected emissions and removals during the commitment period would be taken into account in the negotiation of emissions targets. In the commitment period, countries would then gain credits/debits for biospheric removals/emissions. Difficulties with this approach would lie in reaching agreed baselines for emissions and removals

  14. An Approach to Evaluate Comprehensive Plan and Identify Priority Lands for Future Land Use Development to Conserve More Ecological Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long Zhou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization has significant impacts on the regional environmental quality through altering natural lands, converting them to urban built-up areas. One common strategy applied by urban planners to manage urbanization and preserve natural resources is to make a comprehensive plan and concentrate future land use in certain areas. However, in practice, planners used to make future land use planning mainly based on their subjective interpretations with limited ecological supporting evidence and analysis. Here, we propose a new approach composed of ecological modelling and land use zoning in the spatial matrix to evaluate the comprehensive plan and identify priority lands for sustainable land use planning. We use the city of Corvallis, OR, as the test bed to demonstrate this new approach. The results indicate that the Corvallis Comprehensive Plan 1998–2020 featured with compact development is not performing efficiently in conserving ecological values, and the land use plan featured with mixed-use spreading development generated by the proposed approach meets the city’s land demands for urban growth, and conserves 103% more ecological value of retaining storm water nitrogen, 270% more ecological value of retaining storm water phosphorus and 19% more ecological value in storing carbon in the whole watershed. This study indicates that if planned with scientific analysis and evidence, spreading urban development does not necessarily result in less sustainable urban environment than the compact development recommended in smart growth.

  15. Percent Agricultural Land Cover on Steep Slopes (Future)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Clearing land for agriculture tends to increase soil erosion. The amount of erosion is related to the steepness of the slope, farming methods used and soil type....

  16. Can Strategic Spatial Planning Contribute to Land Degradation Reduction in Urban Regions? State of the Art and Future Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Oliveira

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Land degradation is becoming a serious environmental issue threatening fertile agricultural soils and other natural resources. There are many driving forces behind land degradation. The expansion of artificial surfaces due to various economic activities, such as housing, industry, and transport infrastructure, known as soil sealing, constitutes one of the most intensive forms of land degradation in urban regions. Measures to halt and reverse land degradation require both strong land-use management policies, as well as effective spatial planning mechanisms. In this regard, strategic spatial planning has been increasingly practised in many urban regions worldwide, as a means to achieve sustainable land-use patterns and to guide the location of development and physical infrastructures. It is reasonable, therefore, to expect that strategic spatial planning can counteract the outlined undesired land degradation effects, specifically those resulting from soil sealing. In this paper, we review strategic spatial planning literature published between 1992 and 2017. The focus is on the phenomena causing land degradation that are addressed by strategic spatial planning literature, as well as on the mechanisms describing the role of strategic spatial planning in land degradation reduction. Results show that sustainable development and environmental concerns have become core objectives of strategic planning in recent years, yet references to the drivers of land degradation are rare. The mechanisms that exist are mainly intended to address environmental issues in general, and are not aimed at reducing particular forms of land degradation. The paper concludes by sketching future research directions, intended to support strategic spatial planning and land-use policymaking related to coping with the global phenomenon of land degradation.

  17. Research on Land Surface Thermal-Hydrologic Exchange in Southern China under Future Climate and Land Cover Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianwu Yan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change inevitably leads to changes in hydrothermal circulation. However, thermal-hydrologic exchanging caused by land cover change has also undergone ineligible changes. Therefore, studying the comprehensive effects of climate and land cover changes on land surface water and heat exchanges enables us to well understand the formation mechanism of regional climate and predict climate change with fewer uncertainties. This study investigated the land surface thermal-hydrologic exchange across southern China for the next 40 years using a land surface model (ecosystem-atmosphere simulation scheme (EASS. Our findings are summarized as follows. (i Spatiotemporal variation patterns of sensible heat flux (H and evapotranspiration (ET under the land cover scenarios (A2a or B2a and climate change scenario (A1B are unanimous. (ii Both H and ET take on a single peak pattern, and the peak occurs in June or July. (iii Based on the regional interannual variability analysis, H displays a downward trend (10% and ET presents an increasing trend (15%. (iv The annual average H and ET would, respectively, increase and decrease by about 10% when woodland converts to the cultivated land. Through this study, we recognize that land surface water and heat exchanges are affected greatly by the future climate change as well as land cover change.

  18. Future land-use scenarios and the loss of wildlife habitats in the southeastern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Withey, John C; Pidgeon, Anna M; Plantinga, Andrew J; McKerrow, Alexa J; Williams, Steven G; Helmers, David P; Radeloff, Volker C

    2015-01-01

    Land-use change is a major cause of wildlife habitat loss. Understanding how changes in land-use policies and economic factors can impact future trends in land use and wildlife habitat loss is therefore critical for conservation efforts. Our goal here was to evaluate the consequences of future land-use changes under different conservation policies and crop market conditions on habitat loss for wildlife species in the southeastern United States. We predicted the rates of habitat loss for 336 terrestrial vertebrate species by 2051. We focused on habitat loss due to the expansion of urban, crop, and pasture. Future land-use changes following business-as-usual conditions resulted in relatively low rates of wildlife habitat loss across the entire Southeast, but some ecoregions and species groups experienced much higher habitat loss than others. Increased crop commodity prices exacerbated wildlife habitat loss in most ecoregions, while the implementation of conservation policies (reduced urban sprawl, and payments for land conservation) reduced the projected habitat loss in some regions, to a certain degree. Overall, urban and crop expansion were the main drivers of habitat loss. Reptiles and wildlife species associated with open vegetation (grasslands, open woodlands) were the species groups most vulnerable to future land-use change. Effective conservation of wildlife habitat in the Southeast should give special consideration to future land-use changes, regional variations, and the forces that could shape land-use decisions.

  19. Future land-use scenarios and the loss of wildlife habitats in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Withey, John C.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Plantinga, Andrew; McKerrow, Alexa; Williams, Steven G.; Helmers, David P.; Radeloff, Volker C.

    2015-01-01

    Land-use change is a major cause of wildlife habitat loss. Understanding how changes in land-use policies and economic factors can impact future trends in land use and wildlife habitat loss is therefore critical for conservation efforts. Our goal here was to evaluate the consequences of future land-use changes under different conservation policies and crop market conditions on habitat loss for wildlife species in the southeastern United States. We predicted the rates of habitat loss for 336 terrestrial vertebrate species by 2051. We focused on habitat loss due to the expansion of urban, crop, and pasture. Future land-use changes following business-as-usual conditions resulted in relatively low rates of wildlife habitat loss across the entire Southeast, but some ecoregions and species groups experienced much higher habitat loss than others. Increased crop commodity prices exacerbated wildlife habitat loss in most ecoregions, while the implementation of conservation policies (reduced urban sprawl, and payments for land conservation) reduced the projected habitat loss in some regions, to a certain degree. Overall, urban and crop expansion were the main drivers of habitat loss. Reptiles and wildlife species associated with open vegetation (grasslands, open woodlands) were the species groups most vulnerable to future land-use change. Effective conservation of wildlife habitat in the Southeast should give special consideration to future land-use changes, regional variations, and the forces that could shape land-use decisions.

  20. Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Quilbé

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Watershed runoff is closely related to land use but this influence is difficult to quantify. This study focused on the Chaudière River watershed (Québec, Canada and had two objectives: (i to quantify the influence of historical agricultural land use evolution on watershed runoff; and (ii to assess the effect of future land use evolution scenarios under climate change conditions (CC. To achieve this, we used the integrated modeling system GIBSI. Past land use evolution was constructed using satellite images that were integrated into GIBSI. The general trend was an increase of agricultural land in the 80's, a slight decrease in the beginning of the 90's and a steady state over the last ten years. Simulations showed strong correlations between land use evolution and water discharge at the watershed outlet. For the prospective approach, we first assessed the effect of CC and then defined two opposite land use evolution scenarios for the horizon 2025 based on two different trends: agriculture intensification and sustainable development. Simulations led to a wide range of results depending on the climatologic models and gas emission scenarios considered, varying from a decrease to an increase of annual and monthly water discharge. In this context, the two land use scenarios induced opposite effects on water discharge and low flow sequences, especially during the growing season. However, due to the large uncertainty linked to CC simulations, it is difficult to conclude that one land use scenario provides a better adaptation to CC than another. Nevertheless, this study shows that land use is a key factor that has to be taken into account when predicting potential future hydrological responses of a watershed.

  1. The Implications of Future Food Demand on Global Land Use, Land-Use Change Emissions, and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Luckow, P.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Eom, J.; Kim, S.; Moss, R.; Patel, P.

    2011-12-01

    In 2005, cropland accounted for approximately 10% of global land area. The amount of cropland needed in the future depends on a number of factors including global population, dietary preferences, and agricultural crop yields. In this paper, we explore the effect of various assumptions about global food demand and agricultural productivity between now and 2100 on global land use, land-use change emissions, and climate using the GCAM model. GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated, global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. For this analysis, we look at the effect of alternative socioeconomic pathways, crop yield improvement assumptions, and future meat demand scenarios on the demand for agricultural land. The three socioeconomic pathways explore worlds where global population in 2100 ranges from 6 billion people to 14 billion people. The crop yield improvement assumptions range from a world where yields do not improve beyond today's levels to a world with significantly higher crop productivity. The meat demand scenarios range from a vegetarian world to a world where meat is a dominant source of calories in the global diet. For each of these scenarios, we find that sufficient land exists to feed the global economy. However, rates of deforestation, bioenergy potential, land-use change emissions, and climate change differ across the scenarios. Under less favorable scenarios, deforestation rates, land-use change emissions, and the rate of climate change can be adversely affected.

  2. 10 CFR 61.50 - Disposal site suitability requirements for land disposal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Disposal site suitability requirements for land disposal. 61.50 Section 61.50 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) LICENSING REQUIREMENTS FOR LAND DISPOSAL OF RADIOACTIVE WASTE Technical Requirements for Land Disposal Facilities § 61.50 Disposal site...

  3. Future Diet Scenarios and Their Effect on Regional and Global Land Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, J. S.; Hvid, A.

    2011-12-01

    Food production has been one of the most significant ways in which humans have changed the surface of the Earth. It is projected that further intensification of agriculture will be necessary to meet a growing population and the increased demand for calories from animal products. This would require substantially more land and resources devoted to animal production. However, globally, the proportion of per capita caloric intake from animal to total caloric intake has remained relatively constant for the last 50 years at slightly above 15%. Nevertheless, there are large discrepancies across regions and through time. For example, northern European countries derive over 30% of calories from animal products, while India is under 10%; between 1961 and 2007, China's per capita consumption of animal calories has increased by over a factor of ten, while in the US, animal calorie consumption has remained constant. In general, per capita consumption of animal products is lower in developing countries than in developed countries, and it is commonly assumed that future animal product consumption will increase as developing countries become wealthier. On the other hand, wealthier countries are remaining constant or even decreasing their proportional consumption of animal calories, and this could be a different way that future diets may evolve. We create different future scenarios for calorie demand from vegetal products, beef, sheep and goat, pork, poultry, and dairy based on historical national trends and estimated income elasticities for these various food products. The extreme scenarios are one in which the world evolves to a highly vegetal calorie diet and, on the other extreme, one in which the world evolves to diets with high meat consumption. Intermediate scenarios include projections of current trends and one in which the world moves to a healthy balanced diet given current recommendations. Using DTU-GCAM, and global integrated assessment model with an included land use

  4. SMOS and SMAP: from Lessons Learned to Future Mission Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Y. H.; Wigneron, J. P.; Cabot, F.; Escorihuela, M. J.; Anterrieu, E.; Rouge, B.; Rodriguez Fernandez, N.; Bindlish, R.; Khazaal, A.; Al-Bitar, A.; Mialon, A.; Lesthievent, G.

    2017-12-01

    , vegetation water content, but also dielectric constant, are carrying a wealth of information and some interesting perspectives will be presented. More important it is now possible to draw conclusions from the lessons learnt and, with the help of the user's community, define the requirements for future missions. And, finally, from these requirement to propose mission scenarii.

  5. Finite land, infinite futures? Sustainable options on a fixed land base.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sally. Duncan

    2001-01-01

    The United States is expected to add around 120 million, an additional 40 percent, to its population in the next 50 years and personal incomes are generally projected to rise. This will inevitably intensify land use pressures. Between 1992 and 1997, USDA's National Resource Inventory estimated that 2.2 million acres of rural land were developed each year, with...

  6. BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

  7. Past and predicted future changes in the land cover of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Jager, N. R.; Rohweder, J.J.; Nelson, J.C.

    2013-01-01

    This study provides one historical and two alternative future contexts for evaluating land cover modifications within the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) floodplain. Given previously documented changes in land use, river engineering, restoration efforts and hydro-climatic changes within the UMR basin and floodplain, we wanted to know which of these changes are the most important determinants of current and projected future floodplain land cover. We used Geographic Information System data covering approximately 37% of the UMR floodplain (3232 km2) for ca 1890 (pre-lock and dam) and three contemporary periods (1975, 1989 and 2000) across which river restoration actions have increased and hydro-climatic changes have occurred. We further developed two 50-year future scenarios from the spatially dependent land cover transitions that occurred from 1975 to 1989 (scenario A) and from 1989 to 2000 (scenario B) using Markov models.Land cover composition of the UMR did not change significantly from 1975 to 2000, indicating that current land cover continues to reflect historical modifications that support agricultural production and commercial navigation despite some floodplain restoration efforts and variation in river discharge. Projected future land cover composition based on scenario A was not significantly different from the land cover for 1975, 1989 or 2000 but was different from the land cover of scenario B, which was also different from all other periods. Scenario B forecasts transition of some forest and marsh habitat to open water by the year 2050 for some portions of the northern river and projects that some agricultural lands will transition to open water in the southern portion of the river. Future floodplain management and restoration planning efforts in the UMR should consider the potential consequences of continued shifts in hydro-climatic conditions that may occur as a result of climate change and the potential effects on floodplain land cover.

  8. Current and Future Research Directions in Requirements Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Betty H. C.; Atlee, Joanne M.

    In this paper, we review current requirements engineering (RE) research and identify future research directions suggested by emerging software needs. First, we overview the state of the art in RE research. The research is considered with respect to technologies developed to address specific requirements tasks, such as elicitation, modeling, and analysis. Such a review enables us to identify mature areas of research, as well as areas that warrant further investigation. Next, we review several strategies for performing and extending RE research results, to help delineate the scope of future research directions. Finally, we highlight what we consider to be the “hot” current and future research topics, which aim to address RE needs for emerging systems of the future.

  9. Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Sumatra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, Miriam E; DeFries, Ruth; Pennington, Derric; Nelson, Erik; Ordway, Elsa M; Lewis, Jeremy; Koplitz, Shannon N; Mickley, Loretta J

    2015-01-01

    Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change over the last few decades as forests and peatswamps have been cleared for more intensively managed land uses, including oil palm and timber plantations. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and managing land for more intensive uses, and the related emissions affect public health by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations and adding to global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we examine emissions from fires associated with land use clearing and land management on the Indonesian island of Sumatra and the sensitivity of this fire activity to interannual meteorological variability. We find ~80% of 2005-2009 Sumatra emissions are associated with degradation or land use maintenance instead of immediate land use conversion, especially in dry years. We estimate Sumatra fire emissions from land use change and maintenance for the next two decades with five scenarios of land use change, the Global Fire Emissions Database Version 3, detailed 1-km2 land use change maps, and MODIS fire radiative power observations. Despite comprising only 16% of the original study area, we predict that 37-48% of future Sumatra emissions from land use change will occur in fuel-rich peatswamps unless this land cover type is protected effectively. This result means that the impact of fires on future air quality and climate in Equatorial Asia will be decided in part by the conservation status given to the remaining peatswamps on Sumatra. Results from this article will be implemented in an atmospheric transport model to quantify the public health impacts from the transport of fire emissions associated with future land use scenarios in Sumatra. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Reginster, I.; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2006-01-01

    are further downscaled from a resolution of 10 min to 250 m using statistical downscaling procedures. The scenarios include the major land use/land cover classes urban, cropland, grassland and forest land as well as introducing new land use classes such as bioenergy crops. The scenario changes are most......This paper presents a range of future, spatially explicit, land use change scenarios for the EU15, Norway and Switzerland based on an interpretation of the global storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that are presented in the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES......). The methodology is based on a qualitative interpretation of the SRES storylines for the European region, an estimation of the aggregate totals of land use change using various land use change models and the allocation of these aggregate quantities in space using spatially explicit rules. The spatial patterns...

  11. The Copernicus Global Land Service: present and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacaze, Roselyne; Smets, Bruno; Trigo, Isabel; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Jann, Alexander; Camacho, Fernando; Baret, Frédéric; Kidd, Richard; Defourny, Pierre; Tansey, Kevin; Pacholczyk, Philippe; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Szintai, Balazs

    2013-04-01

    From 1st January 2013, the Copernicus Global Land Service is operational, providing continuously to European, African and International users a set of biophysical variables describing the vegetation conditions, the energy budget at the continental surface and the water cycle over the whole globe at one kilometer resolution. These generic products can serve numerous applications such as agriculture and food security monitoring, weather forecast, climate change impact studies, water, forest and natural resources management. The Copernicus Global Land Service is built on the achievements of the BioPar component of the FP7 geoland2 project. Essential Climate Variables like the Leaf Area Index (LAI), the Fraction of PAR absorbed by the vegetation (FAPAR), the surface albedo, the Land Surface Temperature, the soil moisture, the burnt areas, the areas of water bodies, and additional vegetation indices, are generated every hour, every day or every 10 days on a reliable and automatic basis from Earth Observation satellite data. Beside this timely production, the available historical archives have been processed, using the same innovative algorithms, to get consistent time series as long as possible. As an example, more than 30 years of LAI and FAPAR relying on NOAA/AVHRR sensors (from 1981 to 2000) and SPOT/VGT sensors (from 1999 to the present) are now available. All products are accessible, free of charge and after registration, at the following address: http://www.geoland2.eu/core-mapping-services/biopar.html. Documentation describing the physical methodologies, the technical properties of products, and the results of validation exercises can also be downloaded. In view of service continuity, research and development are performed on two parallel ways. On one hand, the existing retrieval methodologies will be adapted to new input data sets (e.g. Proba-V and Sentinel-3 at 1km resolution) that will be used in replacement of current sensor (SPOT/VGT) which reached the end

  12. Long-term land use future scenarios for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-08-01

    In order to facilitate decision regarding environmental restoration activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), the United States Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) conducted analyses to project reasonable future land use scenarios at the INEL for the next 100 years. The methodology for generating these scenarios included: review of existing DOE plans, policy statements, and mission statements pertaining to the INEL; review of surrounding land use characteristics and county developments policies; solicitation of input from local, county, state and federal planners, policy specialists, environmental professionals, and elected officials; and review of environmental and development constraints at the INEL site that could influence future land use

  13. Climate change is about the future of our land, our resilience and our security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbut, Monique

    2014-04-01

    While the IPCC report focuses on the impacts of climate change and warns of the possibility of increased floods, drought, conflict and economic losses if carbon emissions continue unabated, it fails to capture the key role of adaptation; that is, ecosystem-based solutions for managing climate risks. According to the author, these solutions are at hand without additional finance; all that is required is a realignment of investment flows. This should not be seen as a threat to vested interests but rather as an opportunity for more equitable development. Investing in practical solutions that transform lives and increase adaptive capacity would be cheaper and work better than investing in walls, wars and relief. Improving the resilience and well-being of the rural poor and other land-dependent communities will improve our own well-being, our national security, and help ensure international stability today and in the future

  14. Information Requirements and Consumer Protection in Future M-Commerce

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cleff, Evelyne Beatrix; Henschel, Rene Franz

    2007-01-01

      The aim of this article is to discuss information requirements and consumer protection in mobile commerce. On the basis of a brief introduction to the characteristics of mobile commerce and the regulatory framework that governs mobile commerce in the European Union today, the article presents a...... safely between the legal rocks in the future wireless ocean of mobile commerce....

  15. Review of Recent Developments and the Future Prospective in West African Atmosphere/Land Interaction Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongkang Xue

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews West African land/atmosphere interaction studies during the past decade. Four issues are addressed in this paper: land data development, land/atmosphere interactions at seasonal-interannual scales, mesoscale studies, and the future prospective. The development of the AMMA Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project has produced a valuable analysis of the land surface state and fluxes which have been applied in a number of large-scale African regional studies. In seasonal-interannual West African climate studies, the latest evidence from satellite data analyses and modeling studies confirm that the West African region has a climate which is particularly sensitive to land surface processes and there is a strong coupling between land surface processes and regional climate at intraseasonal/seasonal scales. These studies indicate that proper land surface process representations and land status initialization would substantially improve predictions and enhance the predictability of West African climate. Mesoscale studies have revealed new understanding of how soil moisture heterogeneity influences the development of convective storms over the course of the diurnal cycle. Finally, several important issues regarding the future prospective are briefly addressed.

  16. Water and Land Limitations to Future Agricultural Production in the Middle East

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, J. A. M.; Wimmer, F.; Schaldach, R.

    2015-12-01

    Countries in the Middle East use a large fraction of their scarce water resources to produce cash crops, such as fruit and vegetables, for international markets. At the same time, these countries import large amounts of staple crops, such as cereals, required to meet the nutritional demand of their populations. This makes food security in the Middle East heavily dependent on world market prices for staple crops. Under these preconditions, increasing food demand due to population growth, urban expansion on fertile farmlands, and detrimental effects of a changing climate on the production of agricultural commodities present major challenges to countries in the Middle East that try to improve food security by increasing their self-sufficiency rate of staple crops.We applied the spatio-temporal land-use change model LandSHIFT.JR to simulate how an expansion of urban areas may affect the production of agricultural commodities in Jordan. We furthermore evaluated how climate change and changes in socio-economic conditions may influence crop production. The focus of our analysis was on potential future irrigated and rainfed production (crop yield and area demand) of fruit, vegetables, and cereals. Our simulation results show that the expansion of urban areas and the resulting displacement of agricultural areas does result in a slight decrease in crop yields. This leads to almost no additional irrigation water requirements due to the relocation of agricultural areas, i.e. there is the same amount of "crop per drop". However, taking into account projected changes in socio-economic conditions and climate conditions, a large volume of water would be required for cereal production in order to safeguard current self-sufficiency rates for staple crops. Irrigation water requirements are expected to double until 2025 and to triple until 2050. Irrigated crop yields are projected to decrease by about 25%, whereas there is no decrease in rainfed crop yields to be expected.

  17. Atmospheric, radiative, and hydrologic effects of future land use and land cover changes: A global and multimodel climate picture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quesada, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie

    2017-05-01

    Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) modulate land surface energy, heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes. Using simulations performed with and without LULCC for five earth system models, averaged over the 2071-2100 period, we quantify the biophysical effects in response to a future realistic LULCC scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5) on 15 climate variables (i.e., atmospheric, radiative, wind, hydrologic variables, and heat fluxes). We find that climate models are able to simulate some robust and strong climate perturbations in response to LULCC. In tropical regions with substantial LULCC, significantly higher skin temperatures, less precipitation and soil moisture, less evaporation and clouds, more incoming radiation and stronger winds, more anticyclonic conditions and subsidence, are simulated in response to future LULCC. In midlatitude and high latitude, LULCC result in autumn cooling and higher tropospheric pressures, while East Asia is drier, warmer, with higher sensible heat flux and lower evaporation. The tropical wind strengthening and weakening of the hydrological cycle are comparable in magnitude to their future regional changes induced by greenhouse gases under RCP8.5, which make LULCC an indispensable forcing to take into account in future climatic assessments. Finally, our study reveals significant indirect atmospheric processes triggered by LULCC, implying substantial changes in incoming radiation, which dominate climatic responses over the direct effects, particularly in boreal regions.

  18. Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lambin, Eric; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise; Mertz, Ole

    2014-01-01

    In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the...... climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization.......In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed...

  19. Energy supplies and future engines for land, sea, and air.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, David Gordon

    2012-06-01

    The years 2012 and beyond seem likely to record major changes in energy use and power generation. The Japanese tsunami has resulted in large countries either scaling back or abolishing the future use of nuclear energy. The discovery of what seems like vast amounts of economically deliverable natural gas has many forecasting a rapid switch from coal- to gas-fired generating plants. On the other hand, environmentalists have strong objections to the production of natural gas and of petroleum by hydraulic fracturing from shale, or by extraction of heavy oil. They believe that global warming from the use of fossil fuels is now established beyond question. There has been rapid progress in the development of alternative energy supplies, particularly from on-shore and off-shore wind. Progress toward a viable future energy mix has been slowed by a U.S. energy policy that seems to many to be driven by politics. The author will review the history of power and energy to put all of the above in context and will look at possible future developments. He will propose what he believes to be an idealized energy policy that could result in an optimum system that would be arrived at democratically.

  20. A stochastic forest fire model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. D' Andrea; P. Fiorucci; T.P. Holmes

    2011-01-01

    Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and...

  1. Current and future land use around a nationwide protected area network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher M Hamilton

    Full Text Available Land-use change around protected areas can reduce their effective size and limit their ability to conserve biodiversity because land-use change alters ecological processes and the ability of organisms to move freely among protected areas. The goal of our analysis was to inform conservation planning efforts for a nationwide network of protected lands by predicting future land use change. We evaluated the relative effect of three economic policy scenarios on land use surrounding the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's National Wildlife Refuges. We predicted changes for three land-use classes (forest/range, crop/pasture, and urban by 2051. Our results showed an increase in forest/range lands (by 1.9% to 4.7% depending on the scenario, a decrease in crop/pasture between 15.2% and 23.1%, and a substantial increase in urban land use between 28.5% and 57.0%. The magnitude of land-use change differed strongly among different USFWS administrative regions, with the most change in the Upper Midwestern US (approximately 30%, and the Southeastern and Northeastern US (25%, and the rest of the U.S. between 15 and 20%. Among our scenarios, changes in land use were similar, with the exception of our "restricted-urban-growth" scenario, which resulted in noticeably different rates of change. This demonstrates that it will likely be difficult to influence land-use change patterns with national policies and that understanding regional land-use dynamics is critical for effective management and planning of protected lands throughout the U.S.

  2. Corporate strategy and viable future land use: Planning for closure from the outset of mining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warhurst, A.

    2000-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the environmental impact of mining on viable future land use and underlines the imperative of improved environmental management and closure planning. It argues that pollution prevention, through planning for closure, can lead to cost-effective strategies for sustainable minerals development and viable future land use. This seems to be most true for greenfield sites since, generally, the earlier closure planning and pollution prevention is built into a project, the more cost-effective and environmentally benign closure will be. Further, for greenfield sites, pollution prevention techniques can be employed from the outset, at the stages of exploration and mine development, and then monitored and improved through the operation stage to closure, and can be kept in place to manage future land use. The paper discusses how global changes in the industry, following the liberalisation of investment regimes, and mergers and strategic alliances between key firms, has, by virtue of the diffusion of new technology, led to further opportunities to prevent pollution and optimise future land use through planning for closure from the outset. The objectives and components of closure plans are also reviewed as the paper draws on case studies to highlight some of the possible constraints and challenges to pollution prevention that may be faced at the level of both public policy and corporate strategy. The article concludes by suggesting a forward-looking approach to integrated environmental management and viable future land-use planning based on a dynamic model for environmental management. (author)

  3. Needs and Requirements for Future Research Reactors (ORNL Perspectives)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ilas, Germina [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bryan, Chris [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Gehin, Jess C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-02-10

    The High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a vital national and international resource for neutron science research, production of radioisotopes, and materials irradiation. While HFIR is expected to continue operation for the foreseeable future, interest is growing in understanding future research reactors features, needs, and requirements. To clarify, discuss, and compile these needs from the perspective of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) research and development (R&D) missions, a workshop, titled “Needs and Requirements for Future Research Reactors”, was held at ORNL on May 12, 2015. The workshop engaged ORNL staff that is directly involved in research using HFIR to collect valuable input on the reactor’s current and future missions. The workshop provided an interactive forum for a fruitful exchange of opinions, and included a mix of short presentations and open discussions. ORNL staff members made 15 technical presentations based on their experience and areas of expertise, and discussed those capabilities of the HFIR and future research reactors that are essential for their current and future R&D needs. The workshop was attended by approximately 60 participants from three ORNL directorates. The agenda is included in Appendix A. This document summarizes the feedback provided by workshop contributors and participants. It also includes information and insights addressing key points that originated from the dialogue started at the workshop. A general overview is provided on the design features and capabilities of high performance research reactors currently in use or under construction worldwide. Recent and ongoing design efforts in the US and internationally are briefly summarized, followed by conclusions and recommendations.

  4. Needs and Requirements for Future Research Reactors (ORNL Perspectives)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilas, Germina; Bryan, Chris; Gehin, Jess C.

    2016-01-01

    The High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a vital national and international resource for neutron science research, production of radioisotopes, and materials irradiation. While HFIR is expected to continue operation for the foreseeable future, interest is growing in understanding future research reactors features, needs, and requirements. To clarify, discuss, and compile these needs from the perspective of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) research and development (R&D) missions, a workshop, titled ''Needs and Requirements for Future Research Reactors'', was held at ORNL on May 12, 2015. The workshop engaged ORNL staff that is directly involved in research using HFIR to collect valuable input on the reactor's current and future missions. The workshop provided an interactive forum for a fruitful exchange of opinions, and included a mix of short presentations and open discussions. ORNL staff members made 15 technical presentations based on their experience and areas of expertise, and discussed those capabilities of the HFIR and future research reactors that are essential for their current and future R&D needs. The workshop was attended by approximately 60 participants from three ORNL directorates. The agenda is included in Appendix A. This document summarizes the feedback provided by workshop contributors and participants. It also includes information and insights addressing key points that originated from the dialogue started at the workshop. A general overview is provided on the design features and capabilities of high performance research reactors currently in use or under construction worldwide. Recent and ongoing design efforts in the US and internationally are briefly summarized, followed by conclusions and recommendations.

  5. Information Requirements and Consumer Protection in Future M-Commerce

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cleff, Evelyne Beatrix; Henschel, Rene Franz

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this article is to discuss information requirements and consumer protection in mobile commerce. On the basis of a brief introduction to the characteristics of mobile commerce and the regulatory framework that governs mobile commerce in the European Union today, the article presents...... and discusses information requirements of particular interest to m-commerce and how the technological development facilitates but also challenges the traditional way in which legal information is given. In order to prevent over-regulation and hindrances to the technological development, it has been suggested...... safely between the legal rocks in the future wireless ocean of mobile commerce....

  6. Requirements for user interaction support in future CACE environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Ole; Szymkat, M.

    1994-01-01

    Based on a review of user interaction modes and the specific needs of the CACE domain the paper describes requirements for user interaction in future CACE environments. Taking another look at the design process in CACE key areas in need of more user interaction support are pointed out. Three...... concepts are described through examples, dynamic data access, parallel evaluation and active documentation. The features of existing tools are summarized. The problem of how easily or `naturally' the novel concepts are integrated is stressed...

  7. Digging the backyard : mining and quarrying in the UK and their impact on future land use

    OpenAIRE

    Bloodworth, Andrew; Scott, P.W.; McEvoy, Fiona

    2009-01-01

    The future demand for land for mining and quarrying will be affected by a large number of economic, technological, environmental and social issues within the UK. Global developments also have a role to play. Although mining and quarrying account for only 0.9 per cent of the land area of England, the impact of this activity is considerable. Minerals are essential to the economy, for energy, construction, infrastructure and manufacturing, while their extraction has effects on the environment an...

  8. The impact of future land use scenarios on runoff volumes in the Muskegon River Watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Deepak K; Duckles, Jonah M; Pijanowski, Bryan C

    2010-09-01

    In this article we compared the response of surface water runoff to a storm event for different rates of urbanization, reforestation and riparian buffer setbacks across forty subwatersheds of the Muskegon River Watershed located in Michigan, USA. We also made these comparisons for several forecasted and one historical land use scenarios (over 140 years). Future land use scenarios to 2040 for forest regrowth, urbanization rates and stream setbacks were developed using the Land Transformation Model (LTM). Historical land use information, from 1900 at 5-year time step intervals, was created using a Backcast land use change model configured using artificial neural network and driven by agriculture and housing census information. We show that (1) controlling the rate of development is the most effective policy option to reduce runoff; (2) establishing setbacks along the mainstem are not as effective as controlling urban growth; (3) reforestation can abate some of the runoff effects from urban growth but not all; (4) land use patterns of the 1970s produced the least amount of runoff in most cases in the Muskegon River Watershed when compared to land use maps from 1900 to 2040; and, (5) future land use patterns here not always lead to increased (worse) runoff than the past. We found that while ten of the subwatersheds contained futures that were worse than any past land use configuration, twenty-five (62.5%) of the subwatersheds produced the greatest amount of runoff in 1900, shortly after the entire watershed was clear-cut. One third (14/40) of the subwatersheds contained the minimum amount of runoff in the 1960s and 1970s, a period when forest amounts were greatest and urban amounts relatively small.

  9. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  10. Future CANDU nuclear power plant design requirements document executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Duk Su; Chang, Woo Hyun; Lee, Nam Young; S. A. Usmani

    1996-03-01

    The future CANDU Requirements Document (FCRED) describes a clear and complete statement of utility requirements for the next generation of CANDU nuclear power plants including those in Korea. The requirements are based on proven technology of PHWR experience and are intended to be consistent with those specified in the current international requirement documents. Furthermore, these integrated set of design requirements, incorporate utility input to the extent currently available and assure a simple, robust and more forgiving design that enhances the performance and safety. The FCRED addresses the entire plant, including the nuclear steam supply system and the balance of the plant, up to the interface with the utility grid at the distribution side of the circuit breakers which connect the switchyard to the transmission lines. Requirements for processing of low level radioactive waste at the plant site and spent fuel storage requirements are included in the FCRED. Off-site waste disposal is beyond the scope of the FCRED. 2 tabs., 1 fig. (Author) .new

  11. Urbanisation-Induced Land Cover Temperature Dynamics for Sustainable Future Urban Heat Island Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew MacLachlan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban land cover is one of the fastest global growing land cover types which permanently alters land surface properties and atmospheric interactions, often initiating an urban heat island effect. Urbanisation comprises a number of land cover changes within metropolitan regions. However, these complexities have been somewhat neglected in temperature analysis studies of the urban heat island effect, whereby over-simplification ignores the heterogeneity of urban surfaces and associated land surface temperature dynamics. Accurate spatial information pertaining to these land cover change—temperature relationships across space is essential for policy integration regarding future sustainable city planning to mitigate urban heat impacts. Through a multi-sensor approach, this research disentangles the complex spatial heterogeneous variations between changes in land cover (Landsat data and land surface temperature (MODIS data, to understand the urban heat island effect dynamics in greater detail for appropriate policy integration. The application area is the rapidly expanding Perth Metropolitan Region (PMR in Western Australia (WA. Results indicate that land cover change from forest to urban is associated with the greatest annual daytime and nighttime temperature change of 0.40 °C and 0.88 °C respectively. Conversely, change from grassland to urban minimises temperature change at 0.16 °C and 0.77 °C for annual daytime and nighttime temperature respectively. These findings are important to consider for proposed developments of the city as such detail is not currently considered in the urban growth plans for the PMR. The novel intra-urban research approach presented can be applied to other global metropolitan regions to facilitate future transition towards sustainable cities, whereby urban heat impacts can be better managed through optimised land use planning, moving cities towards alignment with the 2030 sustainable development goals and the City

  12. Integrated assessment of future land use in Brazil under increasing demand for bioenergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verstegen, Judith; van der Hilst, Floor; Karssenberg, Derek; Faaij, André

    2014-05-01

    Environmental impacts of a future increase in demand for bioenergy depend on the magnitude, location and pattern of the direct and indirect land use change of energy cropland expansion. Here we aim at 1) projecting the spatiotemporal pattern of sugar cane expansion and the effect on other land uses in Brazil towards 2030, and 2) assessing the uncertainty herein. For the spatio-temporal projection, four model components are used: 1) an initial land use map that shows the initial amount and location of sugar cane and all other relevant land use classes in the system, 2) an economic model to project the quantity of change of all land uses, 3) a spatially explicit land use model that determines the location of change of all land uses, and 4) various analysis to determine the impacts of these changes on water, socio-economics, and biodiversity. All four model components are sources of uncertainty, which is quantified by defining error models for all components and their inputs and propagating these errors through the chain of components. No recent accurate land use map is available for Brazil, so municipal census data and the global land cover map GlobCover are combined to create the initial land use map. The census data are disaggregated stochastically using GlobCover as a probability surface, to obtain a stochastic land use raster map for 2006. Since bioenergy is a global market, the quantity of change in sugar cane in Brazil depends on dynamics in both Brazil itself and other parts of the world. Therefore, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, MAGNET, is run to produce a time series of the relative change of all land uses given an increased future demand for bioenergy. A sensitivity analysis finds the upper and lower boundaries hereof, to define this component's error model. An initial selection of drivers of location for each land use class is extracted from literature. Using a Bayesian data assimilation technique and census data from 2007 to 2012 as

  13. Impacts of future changes in phenology on land-atmosphere interactions in temperate and boreal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaduk, Jörg; Los, Sietse

    2010-05-01

    ), which suggest an advance of more than six days average. The observed relationship between chilling and warming at the time of green-up indicates an element of regional adaptation of the warming required for leaf out in biomes covering large areas. The phenological models were implemented in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). In the model the advance in green up leads to a longer growing season with longer leaf display. In regions where soil moisture is mainly fed by spring rain and snow melt, however, there is only a limited increase of photosynthesis as it is determined by soil water availability. A longer summer dry period is resulting. Simulations including a Fire Weather Index indicate that the longer dry summers lead to an increase in the forest fire risk under future climate change in considerable areas. While this increase results partially from the changed climate, partially also the earlier leaf appearance contributes to the increased risk. Also there is a significant difference between simulations using only SWMs in contrast to employing also a chilling dependency. The results highlight the necessity of including appropriate phenology models in climate models for correct predictions of land-atmosphere interactions.

  14. Influence of Climate-induced Vegetation Shifts on Future Land Use and Associated Land Carbon Fluxes in Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kicklighter, D. W.; Cai, Y.; Zhuang, Q.; Parfenova, E. I.; Sokolov, A. P.; Melillo, J. M.; Reilly, J. M.

    2012-04-01

    Land ecosystems in northern Eurasia will be under a variety of pressures in the 21st century that will affect both their structure and function. Climate change and land-use change are likely to be the major pressures. Climate change will lead to changes in disturbance regimes such as fire and changes in the distribution of plant and animal species. Land-use changes, driven by population growth, resource consumption and a broad set of economic considerations, will interact with climate-driven changes to reshape the earth's landscape. Here we present results of an integrated assessment analysis for the region that examines the consequences of concurrent pressures on land ecosystems associated with climate and land-use changes. Preliminary results indicate that climate-induced vegetation shifts allow more areas in northern Eurasia to be used for food crop production (an additional 23%) and pastures (an additional 38%), but limits the additional area to be used as managed forests (38% less) by the end of the 21st century than is projected when vegetation shifts are not considered and no climate policy is implemented. In contrast, under a climate policy, climate-induced vegetation shifts had little influence on food production, but allow more area to be used for cellulosic biofuel production (an additional 23%), and less additional area to be used for pasture (50% less) and managed forests (28% less) over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become a carbon source over the 21st century whereas the region is projected to be a carbon sink if no vegetation shifts are assumed to occur. Thus, consideration of vegetation shifts should be included in future assessments of environmental change on terrestrial carbon budgets in this region.

  15. Investigation of Vehicle Requirements and Options for Future Space Tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olds, John R.

    2001-01-01

    The research in support of this grant was performed by the PI, Dr. John Olds, and graduate students in the Space Systems Design Lab (SSDL) at Georgia Tech over the period December 1999 to December 2000. The work was sponsored by Dr. Ted Talay, branch chief of the Vehicle Analysis Branch at the NASA Langley Research Center. The objective of the project was to examine the characteristics of future space tourism markets and to identify the vehicle requirements that are necessary to enable this emerging new business segment.

  16. Uncertainty assessment of future land use in Brazil under increasing demand for bioenergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Hilst, F.; Verstegen, J. A.; Karssenberg, D.; Faaij, A.

    2013-12-01

    Environmental impacts of a future increase in demand for bioenergy depend on the magnitude, location and pattern of the direct and indirect land use change of energy cropland expansion. Here we aim at 1) projecting the spatio-temporal pattern of sugar cane expansion and the effect on other land uses in Brazil towards 2030, and 2) assessing the uncertainty herein. For the spatio-temporal projection, three model components are used: 1) an initial land use map that shows the initial amount and location of sugar cane and all other relevant land use classes in the system, 2) a model to project the quantity of change of all land uses, and 3) a spatially explicit land use model that determines the location of change of all land uses. All three model components are sources of uncertainty, which is quantified by defining error models for all components and their inputs and propagating these errors through the chain of components. No recent accurate land use map is available for Brazil, so municipal census data and the global land cover map GlobCover are combined to create the initial land use map. The census data are disaggregated stochastically using GlobCover as a probability surface, to obtain a stochastic land use raster map for 2006. Since bioenergy is a global market, the quantity of change in sugar cane in Brazil depends on dynamics in both Brazil itself and other parts of the world. Therefore, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, MAGNET, is run to produce a time series of the relative change of all land uses given an increased future demand for bioenergy. A sensitivity analysis finds the upper and lower boundaries hereof, to define this component's error model. An initial selection of drivers of location for each land use class is extracted from literature. Using a Bayesian data assimilation technique and census data from 2007 to 2011 as observational data, the model is identified, meaning that the final selection and optimal relative importance of the

  17. Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

    2017-11-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  18. Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

    2017-01-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  19. Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian Martinuzzi; Gregorio I. Gavier-Pizarro; Ariel E. Lugo; Volker C. Radeloff

    2015-01-01

    Rapid global changes due to changing land use, climate, and non-native species are altering environmental conditions, resulting in more novel communities with unprecedented species combinations. Understanding how future anthropogenic changes may affect novelty in ecosystems is important to advance environmental management and ecological research in the Anthropocene....

  20. Abandonment landscapes: user attitudes, alternative futures and land management in Castro Laboreiro, Portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zanden, Emma H.; Carvalho-Ribeiro, Sónia M.; Verburg, P.H.

    2018-01-01

    Land abandonment is an important process for the European Union, which primarily occurs in less productive, remote and mountainous areas with unfavourable conditions for agriculture. Future management directions of these abandonment areas are under debate, with increasing calls to adjust policies to

  1. Complex land systems: the need for long time perspectives to assess their future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dearing,, John A.; Braimoh, Ademola K.; Reenberg, Anette

    2010-01-01

    The growing awareness about the need to anticipate the future of land systems focuses on how well we understand the interactions between society and environmental processes within a complexity framework. A major barrier to understanding is insufficient attention given to long (multidecadal) tempo...

  2. A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Reginster, I.; Araujo, M.B.; Carter, T.R.; Dendoncker, N.; Ewert, F.; House, J.I.; Kankaanpää, S.; Leemans, R.; Metzger, M.J.; Schmit, C.; Smith, P.; Tuck, G.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a range of future, spatially explicit, land use change scenarios for the EU15, Norway and Switzerland based on an interpretation of the global storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that are presented in the special report on emissions scenarios

  3. HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

  4. Wireless Technology Use Case Requirement Analysis for Future Space Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abedi, Ali; Wilkerson, DeLisa

    2016-01-01

    This report presents various use case scenarios for wireless technology -including radio frequency (RF), optical, and acoustic- and studies requirements and boundary conditions in each scenario. The results of this study can be used to prioritize technology evaluation and development and in the long run help in development of a roadmap for future use of wireless technology. The presented scenarios cover the following application areas: (i) Space Vehicles (manned/unmanned), (ii) Satellites and Payloads, (iii) Surface Explorations, (iv) Ground Systems, and (v) Habitats. The requirement analysis covers two parallel set of conditions. The first set includes the environmental conditions such as temperature, radiation, noise/interference, wireless channel characteristics and accessibility. The second set of requirements are dictated by the application and may include parameters such as latency, throughput (effective data rate), error tolerance, and reliability. This report provides a comprehensive overview of all requirements from both perspectives and details their effects on wireless system reliability and network design. Application area examples are based on 2015 NASA Technology roadmap with specific focus on technology areas: TA 2.4, 3.3, 5.2, 5.5, 6.4, 7.4, and 10.4 sections that might benefit from wireless technology.

  5. Requirements Analysis for Future Satellite Gravity Mission Improved-GRACE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Wei; Hsu, Houtse; Zhong, Min; Yun, Meijuan

    2015-01-01

    The Earth's gravitational field from the Next-Generation Gravimetry Mission (NGGM) and the Improved-Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Improved-GRACE) complete up to degree and order 120 is recovered by a closed-loop numerical simulation using different orbital altitudes of 325 and 300 km, different orbital inclinations of 96.78° and 89° and different inter-satellite ranges of 10 and 50 km. The preferred orbit parameters of the future twin Improved-GRACE satellites are proposed based on the results of the simulations in this study. The research results show: (1) In order to achieve the scientific objectives, which require that the accuracy of the next-generation Earth gravity field models is at least one order of magnitude better than that of the current gravity models, the orbit design at an altitude of 300 ± 50 km is recommended for the future Improved-GRACE mission. This altitude is determined by a trade-off analysis between the recovery accuracy of the gravity field and the operational lifetime of the satellite system. (2) Because the accuracy of the Earth's gravitational field from NGGM with an orbital inclination of 96.78° will be decreased due to a lack of the observation data in the polar areas, we propose that a near-polar orbit (inclination of 89° ± 2°) is a preferable selection for the future twin Improved-GRACE satellites. (3) The future Improved-GRACE mission has to adopt an inter-satellite range of 50 ± 10 km, because the common signals of the Earth's gravitational field between the twin NGGM satellites will be substantially eliminated with a shorter inter-satellite range of 10 km. With these orbit design parameters, the Earth's gravitational field from the Improved-GRACE mission is precisely recovered complete up to degree and order 120 with a cumulative geoid height error of about 0.7 mm.

  6. Projecting future solid waste management requirements on the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaver, S.R.; Stiles, D.L.; Holter, G.M.; Anderson, B.C.

    1990-09-01

    The problem of treating and disposing of hazardous transuranic (TRU), low-level radioactive, and mixed waste has become a major concern of the public and the government. At the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site in Washington state, the problem is compounded by the need to characterize, retrieve, and treat the solid waste that was generated and stored for retrieval during the past 20 years. This paper discusses the development and application of a Solid Waste Projection Model that uses forecast volumes and characteristics of existing and future solid waste to address the treatment, storage, and disposal requirements at Hanford. The model uses a data-driven, object-oriented approach to assess the storage and treatment throughout requirements for each operation for each of the distinct waste classes and the accompanying cost of the storage and treatment operations. By defining the elements of each alternative for the total waste management system, the same database can be used for numerous analyses performed at different levels of detail. This approach also helps a variety of users with widely varying information requirements to use the model and helps achieve the high degree of flexibility needed to cope with changing regulations and evolving treatment and disposal technologies. 2 figs

  7. Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Rothwell

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Present decisions about urbanization of peri-urban (PU areas may contribute to the capacity of cities to mitigate future climate change. Comprehensive mitigative responses to PU development should require integration of urban form and food production to realise potential trade-offs. Despite this, few studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG implications of future urban development combined with impacts on PU food production. In this paper, four future scenarios, at 2050 and 2100 time horizons, were developed to evaluate the potential GHG emissions implications of feeding and housing a growing urban population in Sydney, Australia. The scenarios were thematically downscaled from the four relative concentration pathways. Central to the scenarios were differences in population, technology, energy, housing form, transportation, temperature, food production and land use change (LUC. A life cycle assessment approach was used within the scenarios to evaluate differences in GHG impacts. Differences in GHG emissions between scenarios at the 2100 time horizon, per area of PU land transformed, approximated 0.7 Mt CO2-e per year. Per additional resident this equated to 0.7 to 6.1 t CO2-e per year. Indirect LUC has the potential to be significant. Interventions such as carbon capture and storage technology, renewables and urban form markedly reduced emissions. However, incorporating cross-sectoral energy saving measures within urban planning at the regional scale requires a paradigmatic shift.

  8. Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

    2016-07-01

    Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. A method to determine land requirements relating to food consumption patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerbens-Leenes, P.W.; Nonhebel, S.; Ivens, W.PMF

    Food production requires agricultural land. The area needed to feed a population depends on the one hand on production systems (e.g. yields per hectare), and on the other hand on the consumption (pattern) of this population. The amount of land available for food production is declining due to

  10. Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

    2017-12-01

    Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

  11. Effects of future climate and land use scenarios on riverine source water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delpla, Ianis; Rodriguez, Manuel J

    2014-09-15

    Surface water quality is particularly sensitive to land use practices and climatic events that affect its catchment. The relative influence of a set of watershed characteristics (climate, land use, morphology and pedology) and climatic variables on two key water quality parameters (turbidity and fecal coliforms (FC)) was examined in 24 eastern Canadian catchments at various spatial scales (1 km, 5 km, 10 km and the entire catchment). A regression analysis revealed that the entire catchment was a better predictor of water quality. Based on this information, linear mixed effect models for predicting turbidity and FC levels were developed. A set of land use and climate scenarios was considered and applied within the water quality models. Four land use scenarios (no change, same rate of variation, optimistic and pessimistic) and three climate change scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) were tested and variations for the near future (2025) were assessed and compared to the reference period (2000). Climate change impacts on water quality remained low annually for this time horizon (turbidity: +1.5%, FC: +1.6%, A2 scenario). On the other hand, the influence of land use changes appeared to predominate. Significant benefits for both parameters could be expected following the optimistic scenario (turbidity: -16.4%, FC: -6.3%; p climate change impacts could become equivalent to those modeled for land use for this horizon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Contribution of wind energy to future electricity requirements of Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harijan, K.; Uqaili, M. A.; Memon, M.

    2007-01-01

    Pakistan is an energy deficit country. About half of the country's population has no access to electricity and per capita supply is only 520 kWh. About 67% of the conventional electricity is generated from fossil fuels with 51% and 16% share of gas and oil respectively. It has been projected that electricity demand in Pakistan would increase at an average annual growth rate of 5% to 12% under different scenarios. The indigenous reserves of oil and gas are limited and the country heavily depends on imported oil. The oil import bill is a serious strain on the country's economy and has been deteriorating the balance of payment situation. Pakistan is becoming increasingly more dependent on a few sources of supply and its energy security often hangs on the fragile threat of imported oil that is subject to supply disruptions and price volatility. The production and consumption of fossil fuels also adversely affects the quality of the environment due to indiscriminate release of toxic substances. Pakistan spends huge amount on the degradation of the environment. This shows that Pakistan must develop alternate, indigenous and environment friendly energy resources such as wind energy to meet its future electricity requirements. This paper presents an overview of wind power generation potential and assessment of its contribution to future electricity requirements of Pakistan under different policy scenarios. The country has about 1050 km long coastline. The technical potential of centralized grid connected wind power and wind home systems in the coastal area of the country has been estimated as about 484 TWh and 0.135 TWh per year respectively. The study concludes that wind power could meet about 20% to 50% of the electricity demand in Pakistan by the year 2030. The development and utilization of wind power would reduce the pressure on oil imports, protect the environment from pollution and improve the socio-economic conditions of the people

  13. Renewable Energy Requirements for Future Building Codes: Options for Compliance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dillon, Heather E.; Antonopoulos, Chrissi A.; Solana, Amy E.; Russo, Bryan J.

    2011-09-30

    As the model energy codes are improved to reach efficiency levels 50 percent greater than current codes, use of on-site renewable energy generation is likely to become a code requirement. This requirement will be needed because traditional mechanisms for code improvement, including envelope, mechanical and lighting, have been pressed to the end of reasonable limits. Research has been conducted to determine the mechanism for implementing this requirement (Kaufman 2011). Kaufmann et al. determined that the most appropriate way to structure an on-site renewable requirement for commercial buildings is to define the requirement in terms of an installed power density per unit of roof area. This provides a mechanism that is suitable for the installation of photovoltaic (PV) systems on future buildings to offset electricity and reduce the total building energy load. Kaufmann et al. suggested that an appropriate maximum for the requirement in the commercial sector would be 4 W/ft{sup 2} of roof area or 0.5 W/ft{sup 2} of conditioned floor area. As with all code requirements, there must be an alternative compliance path for buildings that may not reasonably meet the renewables requirement. This might include conditions like shading (which makes rooftop PV arrays less effective), unusual architecture, undesirable roof pitch, unsuitable building orientation, or other issues. In the short term, alternative compliance paths including high performance mechanical equipment, dramatic envelope changes, or controls changes may be feasible. These options may be less expensive than many renewable systems, which will require careful balance of energy measures when setting the code requirement levels. As the stringency of the code continues to increase however, efficiency trade-offs will be maximized, requiring alternative compliance options to be focused solely on renewable electricity trade-offs or equivalent programs. One alternate compliance path includes purchase of Renewable Energy

  14. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth throug...

  15. Food Footprints: Global diet preferences and the land required to sustain them

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassidy, E. S.; Gerber, J. S.; Foley, J. A.

    2011-12-01

    Agricultural land occupies approximately 4.9 billion hectares of the earth's surface. The amount of land that is required to feed a person differs globally, however, dependent mainly on diet. Diets dense in grain-fed animal protein require more land than plant-based diets in order to supply the same quantity of calories and protein. As the world's population becomes more affluent, more animal products will be demanded of the food system. In this presentation, I will discuss how diet preferences differ globally and how these preferences translate to the amount of cropland needed to sustain them.

  16. Inter- and transdisciplinary scenario construction to explore future land-use options in southern Amazonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Regine Schönenberg

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Our aim with this paper is to present a novel approach for developing story lines and scenarios by combining qualitative knowledge and quantitative data from different disciplines and discussing the results with relevant decision makers. This research strategy offers a solid foundation for perspectives into the future. The "laboratory" is the Brazilian Amazon, one of the hotspots of land-use change where local and global interests both collide and converge: local livelihoods are affected by regional and global climate change and by the loss of biodiversity caused by local and global economic interests in agro-industrial land use; such use contributes, in turn, to climate change. After decades of diverse policy interventions the question arises: What can we learn from past trajectories for a more sustainable development in the future? To answer this question, we combined qualitative story lines for the region, reviewed by local experts, with quantitative land-use scenarios, to study their regional and local manifestations in space. These results were then discussed again with local and national experts. Our findings suggest that in-depth knowledge of the diverging perspectives at a very local level is a fundamental prerequisite for downscaling global scenarios and upscaling local approaches to sustainable land-use management and thus, to producing communicable and applicable results.

  17. Peri-urban futures: Scenarios and models for land use change in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    on a pan-European level Has a conclusive didactic approach + text structure (e.g. inserts, boxes ...) Presently, peri-urbanisation is one of the most pervasive processes of land use change in Europe with strong impacts on both the environment and quality of life. It is a matter of great urgency...... to determine strategies and tools in support of sustainable development. The book synthesizes the results of PLUREL, a large European Commission funded research project (2007-2010). Tools and strategies of PLUREL address main challenges of managing land use in peri-urban areas. These results are presented...... and illustrated by means of 7 case studies which are at the core of the book. This volume presents a novel, future oriented approach to the planning and management of peri-urban areas with a main focus on scenarios and sustainability impact analysis. The research is unique in that it focuses on the future...

  18. Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements: thinking outside the box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benndorf, R.; Federici, S.; Forner, C.; Pena, N.; Rametsteiner, E.; Sanz, M.J.; Somogyi, Z.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely 'de-linking' LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change

  19. Changes in Urban Climate due to Future Land-Use Changes based on Population Changes in the Nagoya Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, S. A.; Hara, M.; Takahashi, H. G.; Ma, X.; Yoshikane, T.; Kimura, F.

    2013-12-01

    Severe hot weather in summer season becomes a big social problem in metropolitan areas, including the Nagoya region in Japan. Surface air temperature warming is projected in the future. Therefore, the reduction of surface air temperature is an urgent issue in the urban area. Although there are several studies dealing with the effects of global climate change and urbanization to the local climate in the future, these studies tend to ignore the future population changes. This study estimates future land-use scenarios associated with the multi-projections of future population and investigates the impacts of these scenarios on the surface temperature change. The Weather Research and Forecast model ver. 3.3.1 (hereafter, WRF) was used in this study. The horizontal resolutions were 20km, 4km, and 2km, for outer, middle, and inner domains, respectively. The results from the inner domain, covering the Nagoya region, were used for the analysis. The Noah land surface model and the single-layer urban canopy model were applied to calculate the land surface processes and urban surface processes, respectively. The initial and boundary conditions were given from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in August 2010. The urban area ratio used in the WRF model was calculated from the future land-use data provided by the S8 project. The land-use data was created as follows. (1) Three scenarios of population, namely, with high-fertility assumption and low-mortality assumption (POP-high), with medium-fertility assumption and medium-mortality assumption (POP-med), and with low-fertility assumption and high-mortality assumption (POP-low), are estimated using the method proposed by Ariga and Matsuhashi (2012). These scenarios are based on the future projections provided by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. (2) The future changes in urban area ratio were assumed to be proportional to the population change (Hanasaki et al., 2012). The averaged urban area ratio in

  20. Do changes in climate and land use pose a risk to the future water availability of Mediterranean Lakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucak, T.; Trolle, D.; Andersen, H. E.; Thodsen, H.; Erdoğan, Ş.; Levi, E. E.; Filiz, N.; Jeppesen, E.; Beklioğlu, M.

    2016-12-01

    Inter- and intra-annual water level fluctuations and change in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. However, considering the climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region where potential evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation and with increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation, more dramatic water level declines in lakes and severe water scarcity problems are expected to occur in the future. Our study lake, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, is - like other Mediterranean lakes - under pressure due to water abstraction for irrigated crop farming and climatic changes, and integrated water level management is therefore required. We used an integrated modeling approach to predict the future lake water level of Lake Beyşehir in response to the future changes in both climate and, potentially, land use by linking the catchment model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Support Vector Machine Regression model (ɛ-SVR). We found that climate change projections caused enhanced potential evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff, whereas the effects of various land use scenarios within the catchment were comparatively minor. In all climate scenarios applied in the ɛ-SVR model, changes in hydrological processes caused a water level reduction, predicting that the lake may dry out already in the 2040s with the current outflow regulation considering the most pessimistic scenario. Based on model runs with optimum outflow management, a 9-60% reduction in outflow withdrawal is needed to prevent the lake from drying out by the end of this century. Our results indicate that shallow Mediterranean lakes may face a severe risk of drying out and loss of ecosystem value in near future if the current intense water abstraction is maintained. Therefore, we conclude that outflow management in water-limited regions in a warmer and drier future and sustainable use of water

  1. A Land-use Approach for Capturing Future Trip Generating Poles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iraklis Stamos

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Changes in the usage of a particular urban or regional area have immediate effects on transportation, such as the development of a new multimodal terminal within a city, or the creation of a business park in its outskirts. Thus far, this correlation has been under-researched at a national level in Greece. As a result, its effects on trip generation and passenger flows has been underestimated at the planning level, leading to the implementation of projects that are neither viable nor sustainable. This paper proposes that land use changes ought to be considered in tandem with transport-related changes at the planning stage. To this effect, we present a three-step methodology for an integrated approach to capturing future trip generation: the identification of future trip-generating poles within the study area; the development of scenarios related to the probability of these changes occurring and their potential magnitude; an estimation of future trends in passenger flows. The methodology is applied to the Metropolitan area of Thessaloniki, Greece. Using data obtained from development plans, national statistical services and research projects’ and studies’ findings, we estimate future trip-generation subsequent to land use change. Data is processed and evaluated by a local experts’ group, representing various key-disciplines of the area’s planning stakeholders.

  2. 25 CFR 166.309 - Who determines livestock class and livestock ownership requirements on permitted Indian land?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... class of livestock and livestock ownership requirements for livestock that may be grazed on range units composed entirely of tribal land or which include government land, subject to the grazing capacity... THE INTERIOR LAND AND WATER GRAZING PERMITS Land and Operations Management § 166.309 Who determines...

  3. Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Le Page

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

  4. Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Pereira, José Miguel Cardoso; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

    2017-01-01

    Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

  5. Deposition and interception of radionuclides. Current knowledge and future requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-12-01

    Following an accidental or routine release of radionuclides into the environment, a good knowledge of deposition processes is necessary in order to accurately predict the radiation dose to members of the public. In order to understand the environmental impact of released radionuclides and their transfer through the environment, including the food chain to man, there have been numerous studies on deposition of radionuclides to a range of surfaces such as bare soil, crops, forests, water bodies and urban surfaces. The RADREM committee provides a forum for liaison on UK research and monitoring in the areas of radioactive substances and radioactive waste management. RADREM has set up four sub-committees to cover issues related to radioactivity in the atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic environments as well as those related radioactive waste management. One of the sub-committee tasks is to organise seminars and workshops on specific topics of interest. The first of these was the workshop on 'Deposition and Interception of Radionuclides: Current knowledge and future requirements' organised last year by the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF), acting as secretariat for the Terrestrial Environment Sub-Committee (TESC) of RADREM. The intent of this workshop was to provide an opportunity to exchange information on deposition-related aspects between representatives from various interested parties including government, regulatory bodies, industry and research organisations. Through presentations and discussions, this workshop addressed current developments in the areas of deposition and interception of radionuclides by various surfaces and served to identify areas which need further research. Papers were presented on various aspects of deposition and interception of radionuclides including deposition into grass, fruits and other crops as well as deposition into urban areas and forests

  6. Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, V. K.; Scinocca, J. F.; Boer, G. J.; Christian, J. R.; Denman, K. L.; Flato, G. M.; Kharin, V. V.; Lee, W. G.; Merryfield, W. J.

    2011-03-01

    The response of the second-generation Canadian earth system model (CanESM2) to historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) natural and anthropogenic forcing is assessed using the newly-developed representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. Allowable emissions required to achieve the future atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, are reported for the RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. For the historical 1850-2005 period, cumulative land plus ocean carbon uptake and, consequently, cumulative diagnosed emissions compare well with observation-based estimates. The simulated historical carbon uptake is somewhat weaker for the ocean and stronger for the land relative to their observation-based estimates. The simulated historical warming of 0.9°C compares well with the observation-based estimate of 0.76 ± 0.19°C. The RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively yield warmings of 1.4, 2.3, and 4.9°C and cumulative diagnosed fossil fuel emissions of 182, 643 and 1617 Pg C over the 2006-2100 period. The simulated warming of 2.3°C over the 1850-2100 period in the RCP 2.6 scenario, with the lowest concentration of GHGs, is slightly larger than the 2°C warming target set to avoid dangerous climate change by the 2009 UN Copenhagen Accord. The results of this study suggest that limiting warming to roughly 2°C by the end of this century is unlikely since it requires an immediate ramp down of emissions followed by ongoing carbon sequestration in the second half of this century.

  7. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  8. Hydro-climatic Effects of Present and Future Land Cover / Land Use Changes in the Upper Mesopotamia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yılmaz, Yeliz; Lütfi Şen, Ömer; Utku Turunçoǧlu, Ufuk

    2016-04-01

    The Southeastern Anatolia Project (SAP) of Turkey, one of the largest regional development projects in the world, aims to irrigate the vast semi-arid plains of the upper Mesopotamia by transferring water from the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. At the current realization level of irrigation projects (about 25%), it has already caused extensive land cover / land use (LCLU) changes in the region. Thus, the aim of this study is to assess the resultant hydro-climatic changes using a state-of-the-art regional climate model (RegCM4). The simulations include a reference one with a LCLU map reflecting the pre-SAP conditions, and two sensitivity simulations incorporating the current and future LCLU maps for the region, the latter being the situation upon the completion of the project. The model is driven with the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for the 20-year period between 1991 and 2010. The sensitivity experiment involves two nesting domains with 48 and 12 km resolutions, respectively, the latter being downscaled to 3 km resolution with the subgrid feature of the land surface model. The performance analysis of the model yields that it is able to reproduce the temperature and precipitation fields fairly well. The preliminary results indicate that, on annual basis, the LCLU change in the region will decrease the surface temperatures by about 0.4-0.8 °C and will increase specific humidity by about 8-17%. Furthermore, these changes will lead to 3-7% precipitation increase in the region, and much of this increase will occur in spring. The evapotranspiration increase estimated by the model amounts to 51-114% over the pre-SAP conditions. Given the fact that the water of the region is primarily partitioned between energy production, irrigation and release for the downstream countries, Syria and Iraq, the dramatic increase in water loss through evapotranspiration has potential to alter the water management practices and policy measures in the larger region. Acknowledgment This study has been

  9. Effect of land-use/land-cover change on the future of rainfed agriculture in the Jenin Governorate, Palestine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thawaba, Salem; Abu-Madi, Maher; Özerol, Gül

    2017-01-01

    Land cover has been changed by humans throughout history. At the global level, population growth and socio-economic development have a significant impact on land resources. Recently, scholars added climate change as one of the major factors affecting land-cover transformation. In the West Bank of

  10. Exploring future changes in land use and land condition and the impacts on food, water, climate change and biodiversity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Esch, van der Stefan; Brink, ten B.; Stehfest, Elke; Bakkenes, Michel; Sewell, Annelies; Bouwman, A.; Meijer, Johan; Westhoek, Henk; Berg, van den Maurits; Born, van den Gert Jan; Doelman, Jonathan; Berkhout, Ezra; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Bouwman, A.F.; Beusen, Arthur; Zeist, van Willem-Jan; Stoorvogel, J.J.; Schut, A.G.T.; Biemans, H.; Candel, J.J.L.; Beek, Van Rens; Tabeau, A.A.; Meijl, van J.C.M.; Caspari, T.M.; Egmond, van F.M.; Lynden, van G.W.J.; Mantel, S.

    2017-01-01

    The pressure on land is growing in many regions of the world, due to the increasing demand for arable crops, meat and dairy products, bio-energy and timber, and is exacerbated by land degradation and climate change. This policy report provides scenario projections for the UNCCD Global Land Outlook,

  11. Deep-sea impact experiments and their future requirements

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sharma, R.

    of biomass, followed by gradual restoration. Important results have been obtained from these experiments, but in order to have a better understanding of the impacts and restoration processes, it will be necessary to improvise future experiments to resemble...

  12. Pathway to future sustainable land imaging: the compact hyperspectral prism spectrometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kampe, Thomas U.; Good, William S.

    2017-09-01

    NASA's Sustainable Land Imaging (SLI) program, managed through the Earth Science Technology Office, aims to develop technologies that will provide future Landsat-like measurements. SLI aims to develop a new generation of smaller, more capable, less costly payloads that meet or exceed current imaging capabilities. One projects funded by this program is Ball's Compact Hyperspectral Prism Spectrometer (CHPS), a visible-to-shortwave imaging spectrometer that provides legacy Landsat data products as well as hyperspectral coverage suitable for a broad range of land science products. CHPS exhibits extremely low straylight and accommodates full aperture, full optical path calibration needed to ensure the high radiometric accuracy demanded by SLI measurement objectives. Low polarization sensitivity in visible to near-infrared bands facilitates coastal water science as first demonstrated by the exceptional performance of the Operational Land Imager. Our goal is to mature CHPS imaging spectrometer technology for infusion into the SLI program. Our effort builds on technology development initiated by Ball IRAD investment and includes laboratory and airborne demonstration, data distribution to science collaborators, and maturation of technology for spaceborne demonstration. CHPS is a three year program with expected exiting technology readiness of TRL-6. The 2013 NRC report Landsat and Beyond: Sustaining and Enhancing the Nations Land Imaging Program recommended that the nation should "maintain a sustained, space-based, land-imaging program, while ensuring the continuity of 42-years of multispectral information." We are confident that CHPS provides a path to achieve this goal while enabling new science measurements and significantly reducing the cost, size, and volume of the VSWIR instrument.

  13. Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra D Syphard

    Full Text Available Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide

  14. Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

    2013-01-01

    Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for

  15. Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syphard, Alexandra D; Bar Massada, Avi; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E

    2013-01-01

    Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for

  16. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-08-01

    We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

  17. Experimental Design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnott, James [AGCI

    2015-10-30

    The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Experimental design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios,” on August 3-8, 2014 in Aspen, CO. Claudia Tebaldi (NCAR) and Brian O’Neill (NCAR) served as co-chairs for the workshop. The Organizing committee also included Dave Lawrence (NCAR), Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR), George Hurtt (University of Maryland), & Detlef van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environmental Change). The meeting included the participation of 22 scientists representing many of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 110 participant days.

  18. Incorporating land-use requirements and environmental constraints in low-carbon electricity planning for California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Grace C; Torn, Margaret S; Williams, James H

    2015-02-17

    The land-use implications of deep decarbonization of the electricity sector (e.g., 80% below 1990 emissions) have not been well-characterized quantitatively or spatially. We assessed the operational-phase land-use requirements of different low-carbon scenarios for California in 2050 and found that most scenarios have comparable direct land footprints. While the per MWh footprint of renewable energy (RE) generation is initially higher, that of fossil and nuclear generation increases over time with continued fuel use. We built a spatially explicit model to understand the interactions between resource quality and environmental constraints in a high RE scenario (>70% of total generation). We found that there is sufficient land within California to meet the solar and geothermal targets, but areas with the highest quality wind and solar resources also tend to be those with high conservation value. Development of some land with lower conservation value results in lower average capacity factors, but also provides opportunity for colocation of different generation technologies, which could significantly improve land-use efficiency and reduce permitting, leasing, and transmission infrastructure costs. Basing siting decisions on environmentally-constrained long-term RE build-out requirements produces significantly different results, including better conservation outcomes, than implied by the current piecemeal approach to planning.

  19. Land

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.A. Hunsberger (Carol); Tom P. Evans

    2012-01-01

    textabstractPressure on land resources has increased during recent years despite international goals to improve their management. The fourth Global Environment Outlook (UNEP 2007) highlighted the unprecedented land-use changes created by a burgeoning population, economic development and

  20. Transformative optimisation of agricultural land use to meet future food demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lian Pin Koh

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The human population is expected to reach ∼9 billion by 2050. The ensuing demands for water, food and energy would intensify land-use conflicts and exacerbate environmental impacts. Therefore we urgently need to reconcile our growing consumptive needs with environmental protection. Here, we explore the potential of a land-use optimisation strategy to increase global agricultural production on two major groups of crops: cereals and oilseeds. We implemented a spatially-explicit computer simulation model across 173 countries based on the following algorithm: on any cropland, always produce the most productive crop given all other crops currently being produced locally and the site-specific biophysical, economic and technological constraints to production. Globally, this strategy resulted in net increases in annual production of cereal and oilseed crops from 1.9 billion to 2.9 billion tons (46%, and from 427 million to 481 million tons (13%, respectively, without any change in total land area harvested for cereals or oilseeds. This thought experiment demonstrates that, in theory, more optimal use of existing farmlands could help meet future crop demands. In practice there might be cultural, social and institutional barriers that limit the full realisation of this theoretical potential. Nevertheless, these constraints have to be weighed against the consequences of not producing enough food, particularly in regions already facing food shortages.

  1. A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Fuchs

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country, plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30–100 m remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems. Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as

  2. Effects of future land use and ecosystem changes on boundary-layer meteorology and air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tai, A. P. K.; Wang, L.; Sadeke, M.

    2017-12-01

    Land vegetation plays key roles shaping boundary-layer meteorology and air quality via various pathways. Vegetation can directly affect surface ozone via dry deposition and biogenic emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Transpiration from land plants can also influence surface temperature, soil moisture and boundary-layer mixing depth, thereby indirectly affecting surface ozone. Future changes in the distribution, density and physiology of vegetation are therefore expected to have major ramifications for surface ozone air quality. In our study, we examine two aspects of potential vegetation changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in the fully coupled land-atmosphere configuration, and evaluate their implications on meteorology and air quality: 1) land use change, which alters the distribution of plant functional types and total leaf density; and 2) ozone damage on vegetation, which alters leaf density and physiology (e.g., stomatal resistance). We find that, following the RCP8.5 scenario for 2050, global cropland expansion induces only minor changes in surface ozone in tropical and subtropical regions, but statistically significant changes by up to +4 ppbv in midlatitude North America and East Asia, mostly due to higher surface temperature that enhances biogenic VOC emissions, and reduced dry deposition to a lesser degree. These changes are in turn to driven mostly by meteorological changes that include a shift from latent to sensible heat in the surface energy balance and reduced soil moisture, reflecting not only local responses but also a northward expansion of the Hadley Cell. On the other hand, ozone damage on vegetation driven by rising anthropogenic emissions is shown to induce a further enhancement of ozone by up to +6 ppbv in midlatitude regions by 2050. This reflects a strong localized positive feedback, with severe ozone damage in polluted regions generally inducing stomatal closure, which in turn reduces transpiration, increases

  3. Generic skills requirements (KSA model) towards future mechanical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Generic Skills is a basic requirement that engineers need to master in all areas of Engineering. This study was conducted throughout the peninsular Malaysia involving small, medium and heavy industries using the KSA Model. The objectives of this study are studying the level of requirement of Generic Skills that need to be ...

  4. Staffing requirements for future small and medium reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McQuade, D.

    2001-01-01

    As power generators around the world grapple with the challenges of the environment, deregulation, competitions and changing prices of fuels, the economics of running a future power plant are influenced significantly by the component of labour costs. These costs, from plant staff, corporate support and purchased services, will affect the overall plant economics. To achieve improved efficiency and effectiveness of organization structures and staff, vendors and utilities are working jointly to apply lessons learned for future designs. This paper will examine the experience gained to date with Canadian CANDU 6 type reactors both in Canada and abroad. The strategies which have been very successful will be reviewed, together with the results of collaboration between Atomic Energy of Canada and the utilities. An assessment of the staffing numbers is provided as a comparison between current number at a Canadian utility and the projected number from a future plant with the improvements in the design. The influence to the overall plant economics are discussed with some broad generalities that look at the effects of increasing and reducing staff levels showing the probable impact on capacity factor. The lessons from other plants can contribute significantly to the performance improvement process. The paper points to the need for a balanced approach in the future for the distribution of operating maintenance and administration (OM and A) cost between nuclear safety studies; maintenance programs and staff training. In the future, utilities, together with the designers, will have to greatly improve plant maintenance and training. The improved design features detailed in the paper will support this strategy by utilizing operational experience. (author)

  5. Land use efficiency: anticipating future demand for land-sector greenhouse gas emissions abatement and managing trade-offs with agriculture, water, and biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Brett A; Crossman, Neville D; Nolan, Martin; Li, Jing; Navarro, Javier; Connor, Jeffery D

    2015-11-01

    Competition for land is increasing, and policy needs to ensure the efficient supply of multiple ecosystem services from land systems. We modelled the spatially explicit potential future supply of ecosystem services in Australia's intensive agricultural land in response to carbon markets under four global outlooks from 2013 to 2050. We assessed the productive efficiency of greenhouse gas emissions abatement, agricultural production, water resources, and biodiversity services and compared these to production possibility frontiers (PPFs). While interacting commodity markets and carbon markets produced efficient outcomes for agricultural production and emissions abatement, more efficient outcomes were possible for water resources and biodiversity services due to weak price signals. However, when only two objectives were considered as per typical efficiency assessments, efficiency improvements involved significant unintended trade-offs for the other objectives and incurred substantial opportunity costs. Considering multiple objectives simultaneously enabled the identification of land use arrangements that were efficient over multiple ecosystem services. Efficient land use arrangements could be selected that meet society's preferences for ecosystem service provision from land by adjusting the metric used to combine multiple services. To effectively manage competition for land via land use efficiency, market incentives are needed that effectively price multiple ecosystem services. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. 14 CFR 135.183 - Performance requirements: Land aircraft operated over water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... operated over water. 135.183 Section 135.183 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... AND OPERATIONS OPERATING REQUIREMENTS: COMMUTER AND ON DEMAND OPERATIONS AND RULES GOVERNING PERSONS... operated over water. No person may operate a land aircraft carrying passengers over water unless— (a) It is...

  7. 78 FR 18562 - Economic and Environmental Principles and Requirements for Water and Related Land Resources...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-27

    ... COUNCIL ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY Economic and Environmental Principles and Requirements for Water... ``Economic and Environmental Principles and Guidelines for Water and Related Land Resources Implementation... Secretary of the Army to revise the ``Economic and Environmental Principles and Guidelines for Water and...

  8. Regional modelling of future African climate north of 15S including greenhouse warming and land degradation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paeth, H. [Geographical Institute, University of Wuerzburg, Am Hubland, 97074 Wuerzburg (Germany); Thamm, H.P. [Geographical Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn (Germany)

    2007-08-15

    Previous studies have highlighted the crucial role of land degradation in tropical African climate. This effect urgently has to be taken into account when predicting future African climate under enhanced greenhouse conditions. Here, we present time slice experiments of African climate until 2025, using a high-resolution regional climate model. A supposable scenario of future land use changes, involving vegetation loss and soil degradation, is prescribed simultaneously with increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations in order to detect, where the different forcings counterbalance or reinforce each other. This proceeding allows us to define the regions of highest vulnerability with respect to future freshwater availability and food security in tropical and subtropical Africa and may provide a decision basis for political measures. The model simulates a considerable reduction in precipitation amount until 2025 over most of tropical Africa, amounting to partly more than 500 mm (20-40% of the annual sum), particularly in the Congo Basin and the Sahel Zone. The change is strongest in boreal summer and basically reflects the pattern of maximum vegetation cover during the seasonal cycle. The related change in the surface energy fluxes induces a substantial near-surface warming by up to 7C. According to the modified temperature gradients over tropical Africa, the summer monsoon circulation intensifies and transports more humid air masses into the southern part of West Africa. This humidifying effect is overcompensated by a remarkable decrease in surface evaporation, leading to the overall drying tendency over most of Africa. Extreme daily rainfall events become stronger in autumn but less intense in spring. Summer and autumn appear to be characterized by more severe heat waves over Subsaharan West Africa. In addition, the Tropical Easterly Jet is weakening, leading to enhanced drought conditions in the Sahel Zone. All these results suggest that the local impact of land

  9. Quantifying the spatial implications of future land use policies in South Africa: Reshaping a city through land use modelling

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Le Roux, Alize

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Land use policies have a definite and lasting impact on the way that cities grow, however, the change in land use only gets observed many years later. As such, it is difficult for policy and decision makers to observe and quantify the implications...

  10. Recent and future impacts of climate and land-use changes on the Amazonian ecosystems inferred from an ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, K.; Levine, N. M.; Longo, M.; Moorcroft, P. R.

    2011-12-01

    The impact of drought-induced disturbances and deforestation on the Amazonian ecosystems has been substantial and is predicted to increase due to future land-use and climate changes. The resulting fate of the Amazon forests and the carbon stored within them has important implications for both the future climate of the region and the global climate system. We evaluate the impacts of recent and future climate and land-use changes on the Amazonian ecosystems and the sensitivities of these ecosystems to these changes using the Ecosystem Demography Model 2.1. The model simulation comprises two parts: simulation from 1800 to present day with observed CO2 increase and land use change, and prediction from present day to 2050 driven by changing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate under two different land-use scenarios. The model's prediction of present day ecosystem dynamics compares favorably with the field observations and remote sensing-based estimates of biomass, and carbon, water and energy fluxes. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations exert a positive influence on the vegetation productivity in this region. However, land-use change shows the largest impact on the ecosystems and offsets the potential benefits of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the past decades. Land-use change is also the largest uncertain factor for the future carbon stocks in the Amazon: biomass loss by 2050 under the business-as-usual land-use scenario is double that under the strict governance land-use scenario. Future climate change, especially changes in the spatial pattern of precipitation, also substantially impacts the composition, structure and functioning of Amazonian ecosystems. By coupling the land-use and climate changes, the model predicts that the savanna-like vegetation and seasonal forests will replace many of the current rainforests in the southern and eastern Amazon.

  11. The estimation of future surface water bodies at Olkiluoto area based on statistical terrain and land uplift models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pohjola, J.; Turunen, J.; Lipping, T.; Ikonen, A.

    2014-03-01

    In this working report the modelling effort of future landscape development and surface water body formation at the modelling area in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island is presented. Estimation of the features of future surface water bodies is based on probabilistic terrain and land uplift models presented in previous working reports. The estimation is done using a GIS-based toolbox called UNTAMO. The future surface water bodies are estimated in 10 000 years' time span with 1000 years' intervals for the safety assessment of disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site. In the report a brief overview on the techniques used for probabilistic terrain modelling, land uplift modelling and hydrological modelling are presented first. The latter part of the report describes the results of the modelling effort. The main features of the future landscape - the four lakes forming in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island - are identified and the probabilistic model of the shoreline displacement is presented. The area and volume of the four lakes is modelled in a probabilistic manner. All the simulations have been performed for three scenarios two of which are based on 10 realizations of the probabilistic digital terrain model (DTM) and 10 realizations of the probabilistic land uplift model. These two scenarios differ from each other by the eustatic curve used in the land uplift model. The third scenario employs 50 realizations of the probabilistic DTM while a deterministic land uplift model, derived solely from the current land uplift rate, is used. The results indicate that the two scenarios based on the probabilistic land uplift model behave in a similar manner while the third model overestimates past and future land uplift rates. The main features of the landscape are nevertheless similar also for the third scenario. Prediction results for the volumes of the future lakes indicate that a couple of highly probably lake formation scenarios can be identified with other

  12. Developing a New North American Land Cover Product at 30m Resolution: Methods, Results and Future Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homer, C.; Colditz, R. R.; Latifovic, R.; Llamas, R. M.; Pouliot, D.; Danielson, P.; Meneses, C.; Victoria, A.; Ressl, R.; Richardson, K.; Vulpescu, M.

    2017-12-01

    Land cover and land cover change information at regional and continental scales has become fundamental for studying and understanding the terrestrial environment. With recent advances in computer science and freely available image archives, continental land cover mapping has been advancing to higher spatial resolution products. The North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) remains the principal provider of seamless land cover maps of North America. Founded in 2006, this collaboration among the governments of Canada, Mexico and the United States has released two previous products based on 250m MODIS images, including a 2005 land cover and a 2005-2010 land cover change product. NALCMS has recently completed the next generation North America land cover product, based upon 30m Landsat images. This product now provides the first ever 30m land cover produced for the North American continent, providing 19 classes of seamless land cover. This presentation provides an overview of country-specific image classification processes, describes the continental map production process, provides results for the North American continent and discusses future plans. NALCMS is coordinated by the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) and all products can be obtained at their website - www.cec.org.

  13. San Juan National Forest Land Management Planning Support System (LMPSS) requirements definition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werth, L. F. (Principal Investigator)

    1981-01-01

    The role of remote sensing data as it relates to a three-component land management planning system (geographic information, data base management, and planning model) can be understood only when user requirements are known. Personnel at the San Juan National Forest in southwestern Colorado were interviewed to determine data needs for managing and monitoring timber, rangelands, wildlife, fisheries, soils, water, geology and recreation facilities. While all the information required for land management planning cannot be obtained using remote sensing techniques, valuable information can be provided for the geographic information system. A wide range of sensors such as small and large format cameras, synthetic aperture radar, and LANDSAT data should be utilized. Because of the detail and accuracy required, high altitude color infrared photography should serve as the baseline data base and be supplemented and updated with data from the other sensors.

  14. Simulating future trends in urban stormwater quality for changing climate, urban land use and environmental controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borris, Matthias; Viklander, Maria; Gustafsson, Anna-Maria; Marsalek, Jiri

    2013-01-01

    The effects of climatic changes, progressing urbanization and improved environmental controls on the simulated urban stormwater quality in a northern Sweden community were studied. Future scenarios accounting for those changes were developed and their effects simulated with the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). It was observed that the simulated stormwater quality was highly sensitive to the scenarios, mimicking progressing urbanization with varying catchment imperviousness and area. Thus, land use change was identified as one of the most influential factors and in some scenarios, urban growth caused changes in runoff quantity and quality exceeding those caused by a changing climate. Adaptation measures, including the reduction of directly connected impervious surfaces (DCIS) through the integration of more green spaces into the urban landscape, or disconnection of DCIS were effective in reducing runoff volume and pollutant loads. Furthermore, pollutant source control measures, including material substitution, were effective in reducing pollutant loads and significantly improving stormwater quality.

  15. Current status and future potential of energy derived from Chinese agricultural land: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Ningning; Mao, Chunlan; Feng, Yongzhong; Zhang, Tong; Xing, Zhenjie; Wang, Yanhong; Zou, Shuzhen; Yin, Dongxue; Han, Xinhui; Ren, Guangxin; Yang, Gaihe

    2015-01-01

    Energy crisis is receiving attention with regard to the global economy and environmental sustainable development. Developing new energy resources to optimize the energy supply structure has become an important measure to prevent energy shortage as well as achieving energy conservation and emission reduction in China. This study proposed the concept of energy agriculture and constructed an energy agricultural technical support system based on the analysis of energy supply and demand and China's foreign dependence on energy resources, combined with the function of agriculture in the energy field. Manufacturing technology equipment and agricultural and forestry energy, including crop or forestry plants and animal feces, were used in the system. The current status and future potential of China's marginal land resources, energy crop germplasm resources, and agricultural and forestry waste energy-oriented resources were analyzed. Developing the function of traditional agriculture in food production may promote China's social, economic, and environmental sustainable development and achieve energy saving and emission reduction.

  16. Solar sorptive cooling. Technologies, user requirements, practical experience, future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Treffinger, P. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Hardthausen (Germany); Hertlein, H.P. [eds.] [Forschungsverbund Sonnenenergie, Koeln (Germany)

    1998-09-01

    Sorptive cooling techniques permit the use of low-temperature solar heat, i.e. a renewable energy of low cost and world-wide availability. The Forschungsverbund Sonnenenergie intends to develop solar sorptive cooling technologies to the prototype stage and, in cooperation with the solar industry and its end users, to promote practical application in air conditioning of buildings and cold storage of food. The workshop presents an outline of the state of development of solar sorptive cooling from the view of users and developers. Exemplary solar cooling systems are described, and the potential of open and closed sorptive processes is assessed. Future central activities will be defined in an intensive discussion between planners, producers, users and developers. [German] Der Einsatz von Sorptionstechniken zur Kaelteerzeugung erlaubt es, als treibende Solarenergie Niedertemperatur-Solarwaerme einzusetzen, also eine regenerative Energie mit sehr geringen Kosten und weltweiter Verfuegbarkeit. Der Forschungsverbund Sonnenenergie hat sich als Aufgabe gestellt, die Techniken der solaren Sorptionskuehlung bis zum Prototyp zu entwickeln und mit Industrie und Nutzern die praktische Anwendung voranzubringen. Die Anwendungsfelder sind die Klimatisierung von Gebaeuden und die Kaltlagerung von Lebensmitteln. Der Workshop gibt einen Ueberblick zum Entwicklungsstand der solaren Sorptionskuehlung aus der Sicht der Anwender und Entwickler. Bereits ausgefuehrte Beispiele zur solaren Kuehlung werden vorgestellt und das Potential geschlossener und offener Sorptionsverfahren angegeben. In intensiver Diskussion zwischen Planern, Herstellern, Nutzern und Entwicklern sollen kuenftige Arbeitsschwerpunkte herausgearbeitet werden. (orig.)

  17. Deriving future oriented research and competence requirements based on scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Anne-Mette; Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    in time to do something different (Schwartz, 1991). Scenarios are known to offer greater advantages over other forecasting methods when uncertainty is high and historical relationships shaky (Fahey & Randall, 1998). Scenario analysis therefore seems better in tune with the current business environment......The key to a company's survival lies in its ability to adapt itself to an ever changing world. A company's knowledge and competencies must be fitted to the requirements of the environment in which it operates. However, the kind of competencies that ensures a company's survival are not acquired....... Also researchers are forced to be in the forefront when choosing the research area in which they engage in. In trying to aid such assessments, scenario techniques can be useful (von Reibnitz, 1988). A scenario can be thought of as a vehicle for envisioning where the world could go so that we can learn...

  18. Land banking and Central Europe : future relevance, current initiatives, Western European past experience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, T; Kopeva, D

    Central European agricultural land ownership is fragmented. An instrument that is particularly suited for solving the land fragmentation problem is land banking. Although the potential of land banking is acknowledged, details on the actual use prove to be hard to fill in. In Western Europe, a

  19. Land banking and Central Europe: future relevance, current initiatives, Western European past experience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijk, van T.; Kopeva, D.

    2006-01-01

    Central European agricultural land ownership is fragmented. An instrument that is particularly suited for solving the land fragmentation problem is land banking. Although the potential of land banking is acknowledged, details on the actual use prove to be hard to fill in. In Western Europe, a

  20. Land Use and Water Efficiency in Current and Potential Future U.S. Corn and Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol Systems (Poster)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warner, E.; Zhang, Y.; Chum, H.; Newmark, R.

    2012-11-01

    The potential for unintended consequences of biofuels--competition for land and water--necessitates that sustainable biofuel expansion considers the complexities of resource requirements within specific context (e.g., technology, feedstock, supply chain, local resource availability).

  1. Modeling Green Infrastructure Land Use Changes on Future Air Quality—Case Study in Kansas City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Bash, J. O.; Roselle, S. J.; Gilliland, A. B.; Shatas, A.; DeYoung, R.; Piziali, J.

    2016-12-01

    Green infrastructure can be a cost-effective approach for reducing stormwater runoff and improving water quality as a result, but it could also bring co-benefits for air quality: less impervious surfaces and more vegetation can decrease the urban heat island effect, and also result in more removal of air pollutants via dry deposition with increased vegetative surfaces. Cooler surface temperatures can also decrease ozone formation through the increases of NOx titration; however, cooler surface temperatures also lower the height of the boundary layer resulting in more concentrated pollutants within the same volume of air, especially for primary emitted pollutants (e.g. NOx, CO, primary particulate matter). To better understand how green infrastructure impacts air quality, the interactions between all of these processes must be considered collectively. In this study, we use a comprehensive coupled meteorology-air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) to simulate the influence of planned land use changes that include green infrastructure in Kansas City (KC) on regional meteorology and air quality. Current and future land use data was provided by the Mid-America Regional Council for 2012 and 2040 (projected land use due to population growth, city planning and green infrastructure implementation). We found that the average 2-meter temperatures (T2) during summer (June, July and August) are projected to slightly decrease over the downtown of KC and slightly increase over the newly developed regions surrounding the urban core. The planetary boundary layer (PBL) height changes are consistent with the T2 changes: the PBL height is somewhat lowered over the downtown and raised over the newly developed areas. We also saw relatively small decreases in O3 in the downtown area for the mean of all hours as well as for the maximum 8 hour average (MDA8), corresponding with the changes in T2 and PBL height. However, we also found relatively small PM2.5 concentration increases over KC, especially

  2. Ecosystem service impacts of future changes in CO2, climate, and land use as simulated by a coupled vegetation/land-use model system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, S. S.; Alexander, P.; Henry, R.; Anthoni, P.; Pugh, T.; Rounsevell, M.; Arneth, A.

    2017-12-01

    In a future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, changing climate, increasing human populations, and changing socioeconomic dynamics, the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. Global modeling can help to explore what these adaptations will look like, and their potential impacts on ecosystem services. To do so, however, the complex interconnections among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and society mean that these various parts of the Earth system must be examined as an interconnected whole. With the goal of answering these questions, a model system has been developed that couples a biologically-representative global vegetation model, LPJ-GUESS, with the PLUMv2 land use model. LPJ-GUESS first simulates—at 0.5º resolution across the world—the potential yield of various crops and pasture under a range of management intensities for a time step given its atmospheric CO2 level and climatic forcings. These potential yield simulations are fed into PLUMv2, which uses them in conjunction with endogenous agricultural commodity demand and prices to produce land use and management inputs (fertilizer and irrigation water) at a sub-national level for the next time step. This process is performed through 2100 for a range of future climate and societal scenarios—the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), respectively—providing a thorough exploration of possible trajectories of land use and land cover change. The land use projections produced by PLUMv2 are fed back into LPJ-GUESS to simulate the future impacts of land use change, along with increasing CO2 and climate change, on terrestrial ecosystems. This integrated analysis examines the resulting impacts on regulating and provisioning ecosystem services affecting biophysics (albedo); carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling; and the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs).

  3. Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J J; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A

    2016-11-03

    Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO 2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils.

  4. 17 CFR 1.12 - Maintenance of minimum financial requirements by futures commission merchants and introducing...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... financial requirements by futures commission merchants and introducing brokers. 1.12 Section 1.12 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION GENERAL REGULATIONS UNDER THE COMMODITY EXCHANGE ACT Minimum Financial and Related Reporting Requirements § 1.12 Maintenance of minimum financial...

  5. Evaluating hydrological response of future land cover change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico) with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    William G. Kepner; I. Shea Burns; David C. Goodrich; D. Phillip Guertin; Gabriel S. Sidman; Lainie R. Levick; Wison W.S. Yee; Melissa M.A. Scianni; Clifton S. Meek; Jared B. Vollmer

    2016-01-01

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize potential hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time. Future growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal...

  6. Recreational rates and future land-use preferences for four Department of Energy sites: consistency despite demographic and geographical differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, Joanna

    2004-01-01

    The management of ecosystems has been improved by both a public understanding of ecosystem structure and function and by managers' understanding of public perceptions and attitudes. This is especially true for contaminated lands where there are a variety of remediation, restoration, and future land-use decisions to be made. This paper synthesizes several surveys from four US Department of Energy (DOE) sites in the states of South Carolina, Idaho, Nevada, and New York. Although ethnic composition varied among the sites, age and gender did not. The percentage of the study population engaged in hunting ranged from 30% to 41% and that in fishing ranged from 55% to 74%. Average hunting rates ranged from 9 (New York) to 15 (South Carolina) days/year; average fishing rates ranged from 12 (New Mexico) to 38 (New York) days a year. Despite the demographic and recreational rate differences, there was remarkable agreement about future land uses. Maintaining these DOE sites as National Environmental Research Parks and using them for nonconsumptive recreation rated the highest. The lowest rated future land uses were current and additional nuclear waste storage and the building of homes and factories. People who participated in a recreational activity rated those future land uses higher than nonusers. While these data on recreational rates can be used to assess the potential risk to people using contaminated sites and to aid in setting clean-up standards based on potential risk, the information on land-use preferences can be used by managers to determine future use and to plan for such use. This information is particularly relevant to the Department of Energy's 'Risk-based End State Vision'

  7. Water Footprint and Land Requirement of Solar Thermochemical Jet-Fuel Production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falter, Christoph; Pitz-Paal, Robert

    2017-11-07

    The production of alternative fuels via the solar thermochemical pathway has the potential to provide supply security and to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. H 2 O and CO 2 are converted to liquid hydrocarbon fuels using concentrated solar energy mediated by redox reactions of a metal oxide. Because attractive production locations are in arid regions, the water footprint and the land requirement of this fuel production pathway are analyzed. The water footprint consists of 7.4 liters per liter of jet fuel of direct demand on-site and 42.4 liters per liter of jet fuel of indirect demand, where the dominant contributions are the mining of the rare earth oxide ceria, the manufacturing of the solar concentration infrastructure, and the cleaning of the mirrors. The area-specific productivity is found to be 33 362 liters per hectare per year of jet fuel equivalents, where the land coverage is mainly due to the concentration of solar energy for heat and electricity. The water footprint and the land requirement of the solar thermochemical fuel pathway are larger than the best power-to-liquid pathways but an order of magnitude lower than the best biomass-to-liquid pathways. For the production of solar thermochemical fuels arid regions are best-suited, and for biofuels regions of a moderate and humid climate.

  8. Climate change and future land use in the United States: an economic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Haim; Ralph J. Alig; Andrew J. Plantinga; Brent. Sohngen

    2011-01-01

    An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and...

  9. Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France

    OpenAIRE

    Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J. J.; Pag?, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by takin...

  10. Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kicklighter, D W; Melillo, J M; Lu, X; Cai, Y; Paltsev, S; Sokolov, A P; Reilly, J M; Zhuang, Q; Parfenova, E I; Tchebakova, N M

    2014-01-01

    Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these climate-driven changes to reshape the region’s landscape. Here we present an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change on land use and associated land carbon sink activity for Northern Eurasia in the context of climate-induced vegetation shifts. Under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts allow expansion of areas devoted to food crop production (15%) and pastures (39%) over the 21st century. Under a climate stabilization scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts permit expansion of areas devoted to cellulosic biofuel production (25%) and pastures (21%), but reduce the expansion of areas devoted to food crop production by 10%. In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6–8% over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become more of a carbon source than if no vegetation shifts occur. Consideration of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts and human activities through a modeling framework has provided clues to how humans may be able to adapt to a changing world and identified the trade-offs, including unintended consequences, associated with proposed climate/energy policies. (paper)

  11. Modeling the potential persistence of various ecological systems under CMIP5 future climate and land use scenarios throughout California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, B.; Ferschweiler, K.; Bachelet, D. M.; Sleeter, B. M.

    2016-12-01

    California's geographic location, topographic complexity and latitudinal climatic gradient give rise to great biological and ecological diversity. However, increased land use pressure, altered seasonal weather patterns, and changes in temperature and precipitation regimes are having pronounced effects on ecosystems and the multitude of services they provide for an increasing population. As a result, natural resource managers are faced with formidable challenges to maintain these critical services. The goals of this project were to better understand how projected 21st century climate and land-use change scenarios may alter ecosystem dynamics, the spatial distribution of various vegetation types and land-use patterns, and to provide a coarse scale "triage map" of where land managers may want to concentrate efforts to reduce ecological stress in order to mitigate the potential impacts of a changing climate. We used the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model and the LUCAS state-and-transition simulation model to simulate the potential effects of future climate and land-use change on ecological processes for the state of California. Historical climate data were obtained from the PRISM dataset and nine CMIP5 climate models were run for the RCP 8.5 scenario. Climate projections were combined with a business-as-usual land-use scenario based on local-scale land use histories. For ease of discussion, results from five simulation runs (historic, hot-dry, hot-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet) are presented. Results showed large changes in the extent of urban and agricultural lands. In addition, several simulated potential vegetation types persisted in situ under all four future scenarios, although alterations in total area, total ecosystem carbon, and forest vigor (NPP/LAI) were noted. As might be expected, the majority of the forested types that persisted occurred on public lands. However, more than 78% of the simulated subtropical mixed forest and 26% of temperate evergreen

  12. Simulation of future land use change and climate change impacts on hydrological processes in a tropical catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marhaento, H.; Booij, M. J.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Future hydrological processes in the Samin catchment (278 km2) in Java, Indonesia have been simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using inputs from predicted land use distributions in the period 2030 - 2050, bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) output and output of six Global Climate Models (GCMs) to include climate model uncertainty. Two land use change scenarios namely a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where no measures are taken to control land use change, and a controlled (CON) scenario, where the future land use follows the land use planning, were used in the simulations together with two climate change scenarios namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. It was predicted that in 2050 settlement and agriculture area of the study catchment will increase by 33.9% and 3.5%, respectively under the BAU scenario, whereas agriculture area and evergreen forest will increase by 15.2% and 10.2%, respectively under the CON scenario. In comparison to the baseline conditions (1983 - 2005), the predicted mean annual maximum and minimum temperature in 2030 - 2050 will increase by an average of +10C, while changes in the mean annual rainfall range from -20% to +19% under RCP 4.5 and from -25% to +15% under RCP 8.5. The results show that land use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual stream flow and surface runoff. It was observed that combination of the RCP 4.5 climate scenario and BAU land use scenario resulted in an increase of the mean annual stream flow from -7% to +64% and surface runoff from +21% to +102%, which is 40% and 60% more than when land use change is acting alone. Furthermore, under the CON scenario the annual stream flow and surface runoff could be potentially reduced by up to 10% and 30%, respectively indicating the effectiveness of applied

  13. Impact of Idealized Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on the Future Ocean and Land Carbon Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tjiputra, J.; Lauvset, S.

    2017-12-01

    Using a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we simulate stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on top of the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 future scenario. Our idealized method prescribes aerosol concentration, linearly increasing from 2020 to 2100, and thereafter remaining constant until 2200. In one of the scenarios, the model able to project future warming below 2 degree toward 2100, despite greatier warming persists in the high latitudes. When SAI is terminated in 2100, a rapid global warming of 0.35 K yr-1 (as compared to 0.05 K yr-1 under RCP8.5) is simulated in the subsequent 10 years, and the global mean temperature rapidly returns to levels close to the reference state. In contrast to earlier findings, we show a weak response in the terrestrial carbon sink during SAI implementation in the 21st century, which we attribute to nitrogen limitation. The SAI increases the land carbon uptake in the temperate forest-, grassland-, and shrub-dominated regions. The resultant lower temperatures lead to a reduction in the heterotrophic respiration rate and increase soil carbon retention. Changes in precipitation patterns are key drivers for variability in vegetation carbon. Upon SAI termination, the level of vegetation carbon storage returns to the reference case, whereas the soil carbon remains high. The ocean absorbs nearly 10% more carbon in the geoengineered simulation than in the reference simulation, leading to a ˜15 ppm lower atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2100. The largest enhancement in uptake occurs in the North Atlantic. In both hemispheres' polar regions, SAI delays the sea ice melting and, consequently, export production remains low. Despite inducing little impact on surface acidification, in the deep water of North Atlantic, SAI-induced circulation changes accelerate the ocean acidification rate and broaden the affected area. Since the deep ocean provides vital ecosystem function and services, e.g., fish stocks, this accelerated changes

  14. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologi...

  15. Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M.; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

  16. Current Status and Future Potential of Energy Derived from Chinese Agricultural Land: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ningning Zhai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy crisis is receiving attention with regard to the global economy and environmental sustainable development. Developing new energy resources to optimize the energy supply structure has become an important measure to prevent energy shortage as well as achieving energy conservation and emission reduction in China. This study proposed the concept of energy agriculture and constructed an energy agricultural technical support system based on the analysis of energy supply and demand and China’s foreign dependence on energy resources, combined with the function of agriculture in the energy field. Manufacturing technology equipment and agricultural and forestry energy, including crop or forestry plants and animal feces, were used in the system. The current status and future potential of China’s marginal land resources, energy crop germplasm resources, and agricultural and forestry waste energy-oriented resources were analyzed. Developing the function of traditional agriculture in food production may promote China’s social, economic, and environmental sustainable development and achieve energy saving and emission reduction.

  17. History and Future for the Happy Marriage between the MODIS Land team and Fluxnet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Running, S. W.

    2015-12-01

    When I wrote the proposal to NASA in 1988 for daily global evapotranspiration and gross primary production algorithms for the MODIS sensor, I had no validation plan. Fluxnet probably saved my MODIS career by developing a global network of rigorously calibrated towers measuring water and carbon fluxes over a wide variety of ecosystems that I could not even envision at the time that first proposal was written. However my enthusiasm for Fluxnet was not reciprocated by the Fluxnet community until we began providing 7 x 7 pixel MODIS Land datasets exactly over each of their towers every 8 days, without them having to crawl thru the global datasets and make individual orders. This system, known informally as the MODIS ASCII cutouts, began in 2002 and operates at the Oak Ridge DAAC to this day, cementing a mutually beneficial data interchange between the Fluxnet and remote sensing communities. This talk will briefly discuss the history of MODIS validation with flux towers, and flux spatial scaling with MODIS data. More importantly I will detail the future continuity of global biophysical datasets in the post-MODIS era, and what next generation sensors will provide.

  18. Food, land and greenhouse gases The effect of changes in UK food consumption on land requirements and greenhouse gas emissions. Report for the Committee on Climate Change.

    OpenAIRE

    Audsley, Eric; Angus, Andrew; Chatterton, Julia C.; Graves, Anil R.; Morris, Joe; Murphy-Bokern, Donal; Pearn, Kerry R.; Sandars, Daniel L.; Williams, Adrian G.

    2010-01-01

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY •1. Key findingsThis study examines the land use and greenhouse gas implications of UK food consumption change away from carbon intensive products. It shows that the UK agricultural land base can support increased consumption of plant-based products arising from the reduced consumption of livestock products. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption reduces the area of arable and grassland required to supply UK food, both in the UK and overseas. It a...

  19. Impacts of future climate and land cover changes on threatened mammals in the semi-arid Chinese Altai Mountains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Xinping; Yu, Xiaoping; Yu, Changqing; Tayibazhaer, Aletai; Xu, Fujun; Skidmore, Andrew K; Wang, Tiejun

    2018-01-15

    Dryland biodiversity plays important roles in the fight against desertification and poverty, but is highly vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change. However, little research has been conducted on dual pressure from climate and land cover changes on biodiversity in arid and semi-arid environments. Concequntly, it is crutial to understand the potential impacts of future climate and land cover changes on dryland biodiversity. Here, using the Chinese Altai Mountains as a case study area, we predicted the future spatial distributions and local assemblages of nine threatened mammal species under projected climate and land cover change scenarios for the period 2010-2050. The results show that remarkable declines in mammal species richness as well as high rates of species turnover are seen to occur across large areas in the Chinese Altai Mountains, highlighting an urgent need for developing protection strategies for areas outside of current nature reserve network. The selected mammals are predicted to lose more than 50% of their current ranges on average, which is much higher than species' range gains (around 15%) under future climate and land cover changes. Most of the species are predicted to contract their ranges while moving eastwards and to higher altitudes, raising the need for establishing cross-border migration pathways for species. Furthermore, the inclusion of land cover changes had notable effects on projected range shifts of individual species under climate changes, demonstrating that land cover changes should be incorporated into the assessment of future climate impacts to facilitate biodiversity conservation in arid and semi-arid environments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Land

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Audouin, M

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Unsustainable agricultural practices have had a role to play in the degradation of land on which agriculture depends. South Africa has an international obligation to develop a National Action Programme (NAP), the purpose of which is to identify...

  1. Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Conlon

    Full Text Available Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (Tmin and daily maximum heat index (HImax during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010 and near-future (2040 parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (Tmin and 7.3°C (HImax in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040 yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (Tmin and 2.5°C (HImax, respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (Tmin and 8.3°C (HImax, with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat.

  2. Mediterranean agriculture: More efficient irrigation needed to compensate increases in future irrigation water requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, Marianela; Shi, Sinan; von Bloh, Werner; Bondeau, Alberte; Cramer, Wolfgang

    2016-04-01

    Irrigation in the Mediterranean is of vital importance for food security, employment and economic development. Our research shows that, at present, Mediterranean region could save 35% of water by implementing more efficient irrigation and conveyance systems. Some countries like Syria, Egypt and Turkey have higher saving potentials than others. Currently some crops, especially sugar cane and agricultural trees, consume in average more irrigation water per hectare than annual crops (1). Also under climate change, more efficient irrigation is of vital importance for counteracting increases in irrigation water requirements. The Mediterranean area as a whole might face an increase in gross irrigation requirements between 4% and 18% from climate change alone by the end of the century if irrigation systems and conveyance are not improved. Population growth increases these numbers to 22% and 74%, respectively, affecting mainly the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean. However, improved irrigation technologies and conveyance systems have large water saving potentials, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean, and may be able to compensate to some degree the increases due to climate change and population growth. Both subregions would need around 35% more water than today if they could afford some degree of modernization of irrigation and conveyance systems and benefit from the CO2-fertilization effect (1). However, in some scenarios (in this case as combinations of climate change, irrigation technology, influence of population growth and CO2-fertilization effect) water scarcity may constrain the supply of the irrigation water needed in future in Algeria, Libya, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Serbia, Morocco, Tunisia and Spain (1). In this study, vegetation growth, phenology, agricultural production and irrigation water requirements and withdrawal were simulated with the process-based ecohydrological and agro-ecosystem model LPJmL ("Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land") after a

  3. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sherba, Jason T.; Dick Cameron,

    2015-01-01

    Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within Mediterranean California ecoregions. Historical land use and land cover (LULC) change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources. Five future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios. Spatial land-use transition outputs across scenarios were combined to reveal scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index was developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas to proximal land conversion. By 2060, highest LULC conversion threats were projected to impact nearly 10,500 km2 of land area within 10 km of a protected area boundary and over 18,000 km2 of land area within essential habitat connectivity areas. Agricultural water use declined across all scenarios perpetuating historical drought-related land use from 2008-2010 and trends of annual cropland conversion into perennial woody crops. STSM is useful in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resource use as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, LULC change impacts will help to better inform resource

  4. Quantifying the relative importance of greenhouse gas emissions from current and future savanna land use change across northern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bristow, Mila; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Beringer, Jason; Livesley, Stephen J.; Edwards, Andrew C.; Arndt, Stefan K.

    2016-11-01

    this land use change. The total emission from this savanna woodland was 148.3 Mg CO2-e ha-1 with the debris burning responsible for 121.9 Mg CO2-e ha-1 or 82 % of the total emission. The remaining emission was attributed to CO2 efflux from soil disturbance during site preparation for agriculture (10 % of the total emission) and decay of debris during the curing period prior to burning (8 %). Over the same period, fluxes at the uncleared savanna woodland site were measured using a second flux tower and over the 22-month observation period, cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was a net carbon sink of -2.1 Mg C ha-1, or -7.7 Mg CO2-e ha-1. Estimated emissions for this savanna type were then extrapolated to a regional-scale to (1) provide estimates of the magnitude of GHG emissions from any future deforestation and (2) compare them with GHG emissions from prescribed savanna burning that occurs across the northern Australian savanna every year. Emissions from current rate of annual savanna deforestation across northern Australia was double that of reported (non-CO2 only) savanna burning. However, if the total GHG emission, CO2 plus non-CO2 emissions, is accounted for, burning emissions are an order of magnitude larger than that arising from savanna deforestation. We examined a scenario of expanded land use that required additional deforestation of savanna woodlands over and above current rates. This analysis suggested that significant expansion of deforestation area across the northern savanna woodlands could add an additional 3 % to Australia's national GHG account for the duration of the land use change. This bottom-up study provides data that can reduce uncertainty associated with land use change for this extensive tropical ecosystem and provide an assessment of the relative magnitude of GHG emissions from savanna burning and deforestation. Such knowledge can contribute to informing land use decision making processes associated with land and water resource

  5. Quantifying the relative importance of greenhouse gas emissions from current and future savanna land use change across northern Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bristow

    2016-11-01

    provide a total GHG emission from this land use change. The total emission from this savanna woodland was 148.3 Mg CO2-e ha−1 with the debris burning responsible for 121.9 Mg CO2-e ha−1 or 82 % of the total emission. The remaining emission was attributed to CO2 efflux from soil disturbance during site preparation for agriculture (10 % of the total emission and decay of debris during the curing period prior to burning (8 %. Over the same period, fluxes at the uncleared savanna woodland site were measured using a second flux tower and over the 22-month observation period, cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE was a net carbon sink of −2.1 Mg C ha−1, or −7.7 Mg CO2-e ha−1. Estimated emissions for this savanna type were then extrapolated to a regional-scale to (1 provide estimates of the magnitude of GHG emissions from any future deforestation and (2 compare them with GHG emissions from prescribed savanna burning that occurs across the northern Australian savanna every year. Emissions from current rate of annual savanna deforestation across northern Australia was double that of reported (non-CO2 only savanna burning. However, if the total GHG emission, CO2 plus non-CO2 emissions, is accounted for, burning emissions are an order of magnitude larger than that arising from savanna deforestation. We examined a scenario of expanded land use that required additional deforestation of savanna woodlands over and above current rates. This analysis suggested that significant expansion of deforestation area across the northern savanna woodlands could add an additional 3 % to Australia's national GHG account for the duration of the land use change. This bottom-up study provides data that can reduce uncertainty associated with land use change for this extensive tropical ecosystem and provide an assessment of the relative magnitude of GHG emissions from savanna burning and deforestation. Such knowledge can contribute to informing land use

  6. An Overview of Future NASA Missions, Concepts, and Technologies Related to Imaging of the World's Land Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomonson, Vincent V.

    1999-01-01

    spacecraft and subsystem resource requirements. The efforts in information systems will include better approaches for linking multiple data sets, extracting and visualizing information, and improvements in collecting, compressing, transmitting, processing, distributing and archiving data from multiple platforms. Overall concepts such as sensor webs, constellations of observing systems, and rapid and tailored data availability and delivery to multiple users comprise and notions Earth Science Vision for the future.

  7. Recent and Future Anthropogenic Land-Cover Change in the United States and Its Impact on Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Liu, J.; Zhu, Z.; Barnes, C. A.; Sherba, J.

    2014-12-01

    Forestry, cultivation, and urbanization result in distinct changes in land-cover, which in turn affect biogeochemical and biogeophysical process. Due to the nature of each type of land conversion, the associated climate forcing response may range from short to long-term, with some persisting for decades or longer. To understand how anthropogenic land cover change may impact the climate system in the future, projections are often developed based on an overarching scenario framework. An increasingly expanding set of land-use change scenarios has been developed to assess global environmental change under a range of alternative storylines. However, utilizing these frameworks at local to regional scales needed for environmental management is problematic due to their coarse spatial and (often) thematic resolution. We have developed techniques to extend global change projections to ecoregions of the conterminous United States, while maintaining coherence at global and local scales. We present a comparison of 1) scenario frameworks, and 2) scenario downscaling methods, and the effect each has on the composition of land-cover over the 21st century. Second, we demonstrate how historical and future projections of land-cover change impact at the regional scale 1) the capacity of ecosystems to store and sequester carbon, and 2) land-cover albedo induced changes to surface radiative forcing. Downscaled projections for IPCC SRES scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways were developed along with business-as-usual scenarios based on local scale land-use histories. Three downscaling techniques were explored, where coarse-scale gridded data (half-degree) was allocated to ecoregions based on 1) an area weighting method, 2) land-cover composition, and 3) land-use histories. Each resulting scenario was then simulated using stochastic Monte Carlo methods within a state and transition simulation model. In addition to land-cover change, we also tracked changes across a range of

  8. Land use implications of future energy system trajectories—The case of the UK 2050 Carbon Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konadu, D. Dennis; Mourão, Zenaida Sobral; Allwood, Julian M.; Richards, Keith S.; Kopec, Grant; McMahon, Richard; Fenner, Richard

    2015-01-01

    The UK's 2008 Climate Change Act sets a legally binding target for reducing territorial greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, relative to 1990 levels. Four pathways to achieve this target have been developed by the Department of Energy and Climate Change, with all pathways requiring increased us of bioenergy. A significant amount of this could be indigenously sourced from crops, but will increased domestic production of energy crops conflict with other agricultural priorities? To address this question, a coupled analysis of the UK energy system and land use has been developed. The two systems are connected by the production of bioenergy, and are projected forwards in time under the energy pathways, accounting for various constraints on land use for agriculture and ecosystem services. The results show different combinations of crop yield and compositions for the pathways lead to the appropriation of between 7% and 61% of UK's agricultural land for bioenergy production. This could result in competition for land for food production and other land uses, as well as indirect land use change in other countries due to an increase in bioenergy imports. Consequently, the potential role of bioenergy in achieving UK emissions reduction targets may face significant deployment challenges. - Highlights: • The Carbon Plan could result in significant land use change for bioenergy by 2050. • Higher Nuclear; less efficiency pathway has the highest land use change impact. • Higher Renewables; more energy efficiency pathway has the lowest land use change impact. • Transport decarbonisation via biofuels has the highest land use change impacts. • At current deployment rate only Higher Renewables pathway projections is achievable.

  9. Evaluation of Shipbuilding CAD/CAM/CIM Systems - Phase II (Requirements for Future Systems)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Horvath, John; Ross, Jonathan M

    1997-01-01

    .... The purpose of the analysis was two fold: 1. To describe the requirements of a competitive, future-oriented computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing/computer-integrated management (CAD/CAMYCIM...

  10. Potential Impact of Land Use Change on Future Regional Climate in the Southeastern U.S.: Reforestation and Crop Land Conversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A. P.; Liu, P.; Tsigaridis, Konstantinos; Hu, Y.; Nenes, A.; Stone, B.; Russell, A. G.

    2013-01-01

    The impact of future land use and land cover changes (LULCC) on regional and global climate is one of the most challenging aspects of understanding anthropogenic climate change. We study the impacts of LULCC on regional climate in the southeastern U.S. by downscaling the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model E to the regional scale using a spectral nudging technique with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Climate-relevant meteorological fields are compared for two southeastern U.S. LULCC scenarios to the current land use/cover for four seasons of the year 2050. In this work it is shown that reforestation of cropland in the southeastern U.S. tends to warm surface air by up to 0.5 K, while replacing forested land with cropland tends to cool the surface air by 0.5 K. Processes leading to this response are investigated and sensitivity analyses conducted. The sensitivity analysis shows that results are most sensitive to changes in albedo and the stomatal resistance. Evaporative cooling of croplands also plays an important role in regional climate. Implications of LULCC on air quality are discussed. Summertime warming associated with reforestation of croplands could increase the production of some secondary pollutants, while a higher boundary layer will decrease pollutant concentrations; wintertime warming may decrease emissions from biomass burning from wood stoves

  11. Modeling Future Land Cover Changes and Their Effects on the Land Surface Temperatures in the Saudi Arabian Eastern Coastal City of Dammam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Tauhidur Rahman

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Over the past several decades, Saudi cities have experienced rapid urban developments and land use and land cover (LULC changes. These developments will have numerous short- and long-term consequences including increasing the land surface temperature (LST of these cities. This study investigated the effects of LULC changes on the LST for the eastern coastal city of Dammam. Using Landsat imagery, the study first detected the LULC using the maximum likelihood classification method and derived the LSTs for the years 1990, 2002, and 2014. Using the classified results, it then modeled the future LULC for 2026 using the Cellular Automata Markov (CAM model. Finally, using three thematic indices and linear regression analysis, it then modeled the LST for 2026 as well. The built-up area in Dammam increased by 28.9% between 1990 and 2014. During this period, the average LSTs for the LULC classes increased as well, with bare soil and built-up area having the highest LST. By 2026, the urban area is expected to encompass 55% of the city and 98% of the land cover is envisioned to have average LSTs over 41 °C. Such high temperatures will make it difficult for the residents to live in the area.

  12. Forecasts of county-level land uses under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear

    2011-01-01

    Accurately forecasting future forest conditions and the implications for ecosystem services depends on understanding land use dynamics. In support of the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, we forecast changes in land uses for the coterminous United States in response to three scenarios. Our land use models forecast urbanization in response to the...

  13. SEEMLA: 'Filling the gap' - The Future of bioenergy in the EU and the role of biomass from marginal lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumgarten, Wibke; Kerckow, Birger

    2017-04-01

    The main objective of the H2020 funded EU project SEEMLA is the establishment of suitable innovative land-use strategies for a sustainable production of plant-based energy on marginal lands while improving general ecosystem services. In the context of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG, Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz) and the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) a concept should be developed with SEEMLA for a sustainable use of domestic biomass in order to be able to 'fill the gap' of the future demand in renewable resources as an energy source till 2050. The project partner countries are Italy, the Ukraine and Greece besides Germany.

  14. Hydrologic Futures: Using Scenario Analysis to Evaluate Impacts of Forecasted Land Use Change on Hydrologic Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Land cover and land use changes can substantially alter hydrologic ecosystem services. Water availability and quality can change with modifications to the type or amount of surface vegetation, the permeability of soil and other surfaces, and the introduction of contaminants throu...

  15. Land-Use and Environmental Pressures Resulting from Current and Future Bioenergy Crop Expansion: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyake, Saori; Renouf, Marguerite; Peterson, Ann; McAlpine, Clive; Smith, Carl

    2012-01-01

    Recent energy and climate policies, particularly in the developed world, have increased demand for bioenergy as an alternative, which has led to both direct and indirect land-use changes and an array of environmental and socio-economic concerns. A comprehensive understanding of the land-use dynamics of bioenergy crop production is essential for…

  16. HISTORY OF LAND RESOURCES MANAGEMENT AND THE PLANT WORLD: WHAT WE TAKE THE FUTURE?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidia Borisovna Kuzina

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of management of land resources and flora in connection with the history of Russian statehood, legislative acts is considered. The specifics of legislation on land and nature are described. The structure of top-level management in the post-Soviet period in the Russian Federation and in the world community is described.

  17. Quantifying the spatial implications of future land use policies in South Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Roux, A.; Augustijn-Beckers, Petronella

    2017-01-01

    Land use policies have a definite and lasting impact on the way that cities grow; however, it is difficult for policy- and decision-makers to observe and quantify the implications of their land use policies and strategies. There is thus a need for information and tools that can adequately support

  18. The eagle concept-framework for a future land monitoring system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, Stephan; Hazeu, Gerard; Sanz, Nuria Valcarcel

    2016-01-01

    The EAGLE concept embodies a new approach for land monitoring initiatives following an object-oriented approach in landscape modelling. It aims at providing a basis for an integrated European Land Monitoring Framework. Once implemented, the EAGLE concept with its data model and tools can help to

  19. Evaluating Hydrological Response of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico) with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize potential hydrologic impacts from future urban gro...

  20. Land use changes in Europe: Processes of change, environmental transformations, and future patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brouwer, F.M.; Thomas, A.J.; Chadwick, M.J.

    1991-01-01

    As the pressures to control costs and resources expended on cleaning up hazardous waste sites increase, there is a growing notion that consideration of ultimate land use or end states should aid in focusing remediation efforts, and thus, controlling costs. Resources would not be expended on all sites equally, rather knowledge that a particular site is most likely to be used for industrial rather than residential purposes, for example, would influence the type of clean-up invoked at a site and the clean-up goals themselves. Thus, land use has become a hot topic among environmental risk assessors and risk managers. This milieu makes the contents of Volume 18 in Kluwer's GeoJournal Library of particular interest. The book is a collection of papers, with contributors from across Europe. The paper generally fall into three categories: analyses of historical land use patterns in particular countries, forecasts of changing land use trends for the EC countries, and analyses of particular factors affecting land use decisions (atmospheric contamination, hydrologic regimes, land use decision methodologies). Although very little of the text deals explicitly with hazardous waste clean up, the perspective provided by a view of the European struggles with land use allocations provides helpful context to those in the historically unlimited spaces of the United States just beginning to come to terms with the concept

  1. Modelling soil erosion at European scale: the importance of management practices and the future climate and land use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Poesen, Jean; Lugato, Emanuele; Montanarella, Luca; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2017-04-01

    The implementation of RUSLE2015 for modelling soil loss by water erosion at European scale has introduced important aspects related to management practices. The policy measurements such as reduced tillage, crop residues, cover crops, grass margins, stone walls and contouring have been incorporated in the RUSLE2015 modelling platform. The recent policy interventions introduced in Good Agricultural Environmental Conditions of Common Agricultural Policy have reduced the rate of soil loss in the EU by an average of 9.5% overall, and by 20% for arable lands (NATURE, 526, 195). However, further economic and political action should rebrand the value of soil as part of ecosystem services, increase the income of rural land owners, involve young farmers and organize regional services for licensing land use changes (Land Degradation and Development, 27 (6): 1547-1551). RUSLE2015 is combining the future policy scenarios and land use changes introduced by predictions of LUISA Territorial Modelling Platform. Latest developments in RUSLE2015 allow also incorporating the climate change scenarios and the forthcoming intensification of rainfall in North and Central Europe contrary to mixed trends in Mediterranean basin. The rainfall erosivity predictions estimate a mean increase by 18% in European Union by 2050. Recently, a module of CENTURY model was coupled with the RUSLE2015 for estimating the effect of erosion in current carbon balance in European agricultural lands (Global Change Biology, 22(5), 1976-1984; 2016). Finally, the monthly erosivity datasets (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315) introduce a dynamic component in RUSLE2015 and it is a step towards spatio-temporal soil erosion mapping at continental scale. The monthly mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should apply in different seasons of the year. In the future, the soil erosion-modelling platform will

  2. Anticipating potential biodiversity conflicts for future biofuel crops in South Africa: Incorporating land cover information with Species Distribution Models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Blanchard, R

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available % of biodiversity importance. Anticipating potential biodiversity confl icts for future biofuel crops in South Africa: Incorporating land cover information with Species Distribution Models R BLANCHARD1, DR P O?FARRELL1 AND PROF. D RICHARDSON2 1CSIR Natural... Resources and the Environment, PO Box 320, Stellenbosch, 7599, South Africa 2Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa Email: rblanchard@csir.co.za ? www...

  3. Multi-Temporal vs. Hyper-Spectral Imaging for Future Land Imaging at 30 m

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We propose to determine the information content of multi-temporal land imaging in discrete Landsat-like spectral bands at 30 m with a 360 km swath width and compare...

  4. The seasonal carbon and water balances of the Cerrado environment of Brazil: Past, present, and future influences of land cover and land use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arantes, Arielle Elias; Ferreira, Laerte G.; Coe, Michael T.

    2016-07-01

    The Brazilian savanna (known as Cerrado) is an upland biome made up of various vegetation types from herbaceous to arboreal. In this paper, MODIS remote sensing vegetation greenness from the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and evapotranspiration (ET) data for the 2000-2012 period were analyzed to understand the differences in the net primary productivity (NPP-proxy), carbon, and the evaporative flux of the major Cerrado natural and anthropic landscapes. The understanding of the carbon and evaporative fluxes of the main natural and anthropic vegetation types is of fundamental importance in studies regarding the impacts of land cover and land use changes in the regional and global climate. The seasonal dynamics of EVI and ET of the main natural and anthropic vegetation types of the Cerrado biome were analyzed using a total of 35 satellite-based samples distributed over representative Cerrado landscapes. Carbon and water fluxes were estimated for different scenarios, such as, a hypothetical unconverted Cerrado, 2002 and 2050 scenarios based on values derived from literature and on the PROBIO land cover and land use map for the Cerrado. The total growing season biomass for 2002 in the Cerrado region was estimated to be 28 gigatons of carbon and the evapotranspiration was 1336 gigatons of water. The mean estimated growing season evapotranspiration and biomass for 2002 was 576 Gt of water and 12 Gt of carbon for pasture and croplands compared to 760 Gt of water and 15 Gt of carbon for the Cerrado natural vegetation. In a modeled future scenario for the year 2050, the ET flux from natural Cerrado vegetation was 394 Gt less than in 2002 and 991 Gt less than in an unconverted scenario, with only natural vegetation, while the carbon was 8 Gt less than in 2002 and 21 Gt less than in this hypothetical pre-conversion Cerrado. On the other hand, the sum of the pasture and cropland ET flux increased by 405 Gt in 2050 relative to 2002 and the carbon by 11 Gt of carbon. Given the

  5. Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

    2012-12-01

    An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

  6. Grassland futures in Great Britain - Productivity assessment and scenarios for land use change opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Aiming; Holland, Robert A; Taylor, Gail; Richter, Goetz M

    2018-04-11

    To optimise trade-offs provided by future changes in grassland use intensity, spatially and temporally explicit estimates of respective grassland productivities are required at the systems level. Here, we benchmark the potential national availability of grassland biomass, identify optimal strategies for its management, and investigate the relative importance of intensification over reversion (prioritising productivity versus environmental ecosystem services). Process-conservative meta-models for different grasslands were used to calculate the baseline dry matter yields (DMY; 1961-1990) at 1km 2 resolution for the whole UK. The effects of climate change, rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] and technological progress on baseline DMYs were used to estimate future grassland productivities (up to 2050) for low and medium CO 2 emission scenarios of UKCP09. UK benchmark productivities of 12.5, 8.7 and 2.8t/ha on temporary, permanent and rough-grazing grassland, respectively, accounted for productivity gains by 2010. By 2050, productivities under medium emission scenario are predicted to increase to 15.5 and 9.8t/ha on temporary and permanent grassland, respectively, but not on rough grassland. Based on surveyed grassland distributions for Great Britain in 2010 the annual availability of grassland biomass is likely to rise from 64 to 72milliontonnes by 2050. Assuming optimal N application could close existing productivity gaps of ca. 40% a range of management options could deliver additional 21∗10 6 tonnes of biomass available for bioenergy. Scenarios of changes in grassland use intensity demonstrated considerable scope for maintaining or further increasing grassland production and sparing some grassland for the provision of environmental ecosystem services. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  7. Knowledge and institutional requirements to promote land degradation neutrality in drylands - An analysis of the outcomes of the 3rd UNCCD scientific conference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhtar-Schuster, Mariam; Safriel, Uriel; Abraham, Elena; de Vente, Joris; Essahli, Wafa; Escadafal, Richard; Stringer, Lindsay

    2015-04-01

    Achieving land degradation neutrality (LDN) through sustainable land management (SLM) targets the maintenance or restoration of the productivity of land, and therefore has to include decision-makers, knowledge generators and knowledge holders at the different relevant geographic scales. In order to enhance the implementation of the Convention, the Conference of the Parties (COP) of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification therefore decided that each future session of its Committee on Science and Technology (CST) would be organized in a predominantly scientific and technical conference-style format. This contribution will outline the major outcomes of UNCCD's 3rd scientific conference that will be held in Cancún, Mexico, from 9 to 12 March 2015, on addressing desertification, land degradation and drought issues (DLDD) for poverty reduction and sustainable development. The conference follows an exceptional new round table conference format that will allow the various stakeholders to discuss scientific as well as the contribution of traditional knowledge and practices in combating land degradation. This format should provide two-way communication and enable deeper insight into the availability and contribution of all forms of knowledge for achieving LDN through the assessment of: • the vulnerability of lands to DLDD and climate change and the adaptive capacities of socio-ecosystems; • best examples of adapted, knowledge-based practices and technologies; • monitoring and assessment methods to evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation practices and technologies. The outcomes of UNCCD's 3rd scientific conference will serve as a basis for discussing: • contributions of science to diagnose the status of land; • research gaps that need to be addressed to achieve LDN for poverty reduction; • additional institutional requirements to optimally bridge knowledge generation, knowledge maintenance and knowledge implementation at the science

  8. Present and future of desertification in Spain: Implementation of a surveillance system to prevent land degradation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Valderrama, Jaime; Ibáñez, Javier; Del Barrio, Gabriel; Sanjuán, Maria E; Alcalá, Francisco J; Martínez-Vicente, Silvio; Ruiz, Alberto; Puigdefábregas, Juan

    2016-09-01

    Mitigation strategies are crucial for desertification given that once degradation starts, other solutions are extremely expensive or unworkable. Prevention is key to handle this problem and solutions should be based on spotting and deactivating the stressors of the system. Following this topic, the Spanish Plan of Action to Combat Desertification (SPACD) created the basis for implementing two innovative approaches to evaluate the threat of land degradation in the country. This paper presents tools for preventing desertification in the form of a geomatic approach to enable the periodic assessments of the status and trends of land condition. Also System Dynamics modelling has been used to integrate bio-physical and socio-economic aspects of desertification to explain and analyse degradation in the main hot spots detected in Spain. The 2dRUE procedure was implemented to map the land-condition status by comparing potential land productivity according to water availability, the limiting factor in arid lands, with plant-biomass data. This assessment showed that 20% of the territory is degraded and an additional 1% is actively degrading. System Dynamics modelling was applied to study the five desertification landscapes identified by the SPACD. The risk analysis, implemented on these models, concluded that 'Herbaceous crops affected by soil erosion' is the landscape most at risk, while the Plackett-Burman sensitivity analysis used to rank the factors highlighted the supremacy of climatic factors above socioeconomic drivers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Climate change impacts on crop yields, land use and environment in response to crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zimmermann, Andrea; Webber, Heidi; Zhao, Gang; Ewert, Frank; Kros, Hans; Wolf, Joost; Britz, Wolfgang; Vries, de Wim

    2017-01-01

    Impacts of climate change on European agricultural production, land use and the environment depend on its impact on crop yields. However, many impact studies assume that crop management remains unchanged in future scenarios, while farmers may adapt their sowing dates and cultivar thermal time

  10. Future land use and concerns about the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory: A survey of urban dwellers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, J.; Roush, D.; Wartenberg, D.; Gochfeld, M.

    1999-01-01

    The authors examined environmental concerns and future land-use preferences of 487 people attending the Boise River Festival in Boise, Idaho, USA, about the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (NEEL), owned by the US Department of Energy (DOE). They were particularly interested in the perceptions of urban dwellers living at some distance from the facility, since attitudes and perceptions are usually examined for people living near such facilities. More than 50% of the people were most worried about contamination and about waste storage and transport, another 23% were concerned about human health and accidents and spills, and the rest listed other concerns such as jobs and the economy of education. When given a list of possible concerns, accidents and spills, storage of current nuclear materials, and storage of additional nuclear materials were rated the highest. Thus both open-ended and structured questions identified nuclear storage and accidents and spills as the most important concerns, even for people living far from a DOE site. The highest rated future land used were National Environmental Research Park, recreation, and returning the land to the Shoshone-Bannock tribes; the lowest rated future land uses were homes and increased nuclear waste storage. These relative rankings are similar to those obtained for other Idahoans living closer to the site and for the people living near the Savannah River Site. The concern expressed about accidents and spills and waste storage translated into a desire not to see additional waste brought to INEEL and a low rating for using INEEL for building homes

  11. 19 CFR 122.24 - Landing requirements for certain aircraft arriving from areas south of U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AIR COMMERCE REGULATIONS Private Aircraft § 122... at designated preclearance locations. (b) List of designated airports. Private aircraft required to..., private aircraft commanders must comply with all other landing and notice of arrival requirements. This...

  12. Comparison of Land, Water, and Energy Requirements of Lettuce Grown Using Hydroponic vs. Conventional Agricultural Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lages Barbosa, Guilherme; Almeida Gadelha, Francisca Daiane; Kublik, Natalya; Proctor, Alan; Reichelm, Lucas; Weissinger, Emily; Wohlleb, Gregory M.; Halden, Rolf U.

    2015-01-01

    The land, water, and energy requirements of hydroponics were compared to those of conventional agriculture by example of lettuce production in Yuma, Arizona, USA. Data were obtained from crop budgets and governmental agricultural statistics, and contrasted with theoretical data for hydroponic lettuce production derived by using engineering equations populated with literature values. Yields of lettuce per greenhouse unit (815 m2) of 41 ± 6.1 kg/m2/y had water and energy demands of 20 ± 3.8 L/kg/y and 90,000 ± 11,000 kJ/kg/y (±standard deviation), respectively. In comparison, conventional production yielded 3.9 ± 0.21 kg/m2/y of produce, with water and energy demands of 250 ± 25 L/kg/y and 1100 ± 75 kJ/kg/y, respectively. Hydroponics offered 11 ± 1.7 times higher yields but required 82 ± 11 times more energy compared to conventionally produced lettuce. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first quantitative comparison of conventional and hydroponic produce production by example of lettuce grown in the southwestern United States. It identified energy availability as a major factor in assessing the sustainability of hydroponics, and it points to water-scarce settings offering an abundance of renewable energy (e.g., from solar, geothermal, or wind power) as particularly attractive regions for hydroponic agriculture. PMID:26086708

  13. Comparison of Land, Water, and Energy Requirements of Lettuce Grown Using Hydroponic vs. Conventional Agricultural Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbosa, Guilherme Lages; Gadelha, Francisca Daiane Almeida; Kublik, Natalya; Proctor, Alan; Reichelm, Lucas; Weissinger, Emily; Wohlleb, Gregory M; Halden, Rolf U

    2015-06-16

    The land, water, and energy requirements of hydroponics were compared to those of conventional agriculture by example of lettuce production in Yuma, Arizona, USA. Data were obtained from crop budgets and governmental agricultural statistics, and contrasted with theoretical data for hydroponic lettuce production derived by using engineering equations populated with literature values. Yields of lettuce per greenhouse unit (815 m2) of 41 ± 6.1 kg/m2/y had water and energy demands of 20 ± 3.8 L/kg/y and 90,000 ± 11,000 kJ/kg/y (±standard deviation), respectively. In comparison, conventional production yielded 3.9 ± 0.21 kg/m2/y of produce, with water and energy demands of 250 ± 25 L/kg/y and 1100 ± 75 kJ/kg/y, respectively. Hydroponics offered 11 ± 1.7 times higher yields but required 82 ± 11 times more energy compared to conventionally produced lettuce. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first quantitative comparison of conventional and hydroponic produce production by example of lettuce grown in the southwestern United States. It identified energy availability as a major factor in assessing the sustainability of hydroponics, and it points to water-scarce settings offering an abundance of renewable energy (e.g., from solar, geothermal, or wind power) as particularly attractive regions for hydroponic agriculture.

  14. Future Climate Impact on the Desertification in the Dry Land Asia Using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijuan Miao

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Dry Land Asia is the largest arid and semi-arid region in the northern hemisphere that suffers from land desertification. Over the period 1982–2011, there were both overall improvement and regional degeneration in the vegetation NDVI. We analyze future climate changes in these area using two ensemble-average methods from CMIP5 data. Bayesian Model Averaging shows a better capability to represent the future climate and less uncertainty represented by the 22-model ensemble than does the Simple Model Average. From 2006 to 2100, the average growing season temperature value will increase by 2.9 °C, from 14.4 °C to 17.3 °C under three climate scenarios (RCP 26, RCP 45 and RCP 85. We then conduct multiple regression analysis between climate changes compiled from the Climate Research Unit database and vegetation greenness from the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset. There is a general acceleration in the desertification trend under the RCP 85 scenario in middle and northern part of Middle Asia, northwestern China except Xinjiang and the Mongolian Plateau (except the middle part. The RCP 85 scenario shows a more severe desertification trend than does RCP 26. Desertification in dry land Asia, particularly in the regions highlighted in this study, calls for further investigation into climate change impacts and adaptations.

  15. Peri-urban futures: Scenarios and models for land use change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nilsson, K.; Pauleit, S.; Bell, S.; Aalbers, C.B.E.M.; Sick Nielsen, T.A.

    2013-01-01

    Presently, peri-urbanisation is one of the most pervasive processes of land use change in Europe with strong impacts on both the environment and quality of life. It is a matter of great urgency to determine strategies and tools in support of sustainable development. The book synthesizes the results

  16. Peri-urban futures: Scenarios and models for land use change in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    on a pan-European level Has a conclusive didactic approach + text structure (e.g. inserts, boxes ...) Presently, peri-urbanisation is one of the most pervasive processes of land use change in Europe with strong impacts on both the environment and quality of life. It is a matter of great urgency...

  17. Framing the future in the Southern United States climate, land use, and forest conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; Thomas L. Mote; J. Marshall Shepherd; K.C. Binita; Christopher W. Strother

    2014-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded, with 90% certainty, that human or “anthropogenic” activities (emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and pollution, landuse/ land-cover change) have altered global temperature patterns over the past 100-150 years (IPCC 2007a). Such temperature changes have a set of cascading, and sometimes amplifying...

  18. Projecting trends in plant invasions in Europe under different scenarios of future land-use change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Chytrý, M.; Wild, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Jarošík, Vojtěch; Dendoncker, N.; Reginster, I.; Pino, J.; Maskell, L. C.; Vila, M.; Pergl, Jan; Kühn, I.; Spangenberg, J.H.; Settele, J.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 1 (2012), s. 75-87 ISSN 1466-822X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC06073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : plant invasions * land-use change * prediction Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 7.223, year: 2012

  19. Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stocker, B.D.; Roth, R.; Joos, F.; Spahni, R.; Steinacher, M.; Zaehle, S.; Bouwman, L.; Xu, R.; Prentice, I.C.

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric

  20. FOOD CRISIS AS FACTOR OF FUTURE VALUE OF THE AGRICULTURAL LAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avramchuk Bogdan

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available At the present stage of human development, food is one of the most acute problems. Over the past 30-40 years, the growth rate of population in many countries of the world is ahead of the growth rate of agricultural production, which leads to acute shortage of food. This is especially true of developing countries, which accounts for the overwhelming majority of the population of the planet that is under-eating and starving. According to FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization, in the world now about half a billion people are constantly hungry and twice asleep. Insufficient consumption affects children in particular. Nearly 300 million children in Asia, Africa and Latin America are lagging behind in physical and mental development as a result of poor nutrition. Every day from hunger there are about 12 thousand people dying. According to FAO, food products around the world are produced in general enough to feed the entire population of the Earth. However, the main reason for the global food crisis is not that products are distributed among countries irrelevant to the population, although such a problem exists. Researchers believe that the food crisis is caused by the coincidence of demographic, environmental and energy problems with the effects of adverse weather conditions, as well as a colossal increase in military spending. Investigated the interconnection between the dynamics of population growth and world food production volumes with the areas of agricultural land and the possible influence of projected changes in agricultural land use on increasing the cost of agricultural land is substantiated. It was investigated that the average national land rent in Ukraine would increase by 25.5%. This in turn will lead to an increase in the value of agricultural land in Ukraine.

  1. A Hybrid Inexact Optimization Method for Land-Use Allocation in Association with Environmental/Ecological Requirements at a Watershed Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bingkui Qiu

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an inexact stochastic fuzzy programming (ISFP model is proposed for land-use allocation (LUA and environmental/ecological planning at a watershed level, where uncertainties associated with land-use parameters, benefit functions, and environmental/ecological requirements are described as discrete intervals, probabilities and fuzzy sets. In this model, an interval stochastic fuzzy programming model is used to support quantitative optimization under uncertainty. Complexities in land-use planning systems can be systematically reflected, thus applicability of the modeling process can be highly enhanced. The proposed method is applied to planning land use/ecological balance in Poyang Lake watershed, China. The objective of the ISFP is maximizing net benefit from the LUA system and the constraints including economic constraints, social constraints, land suitability constraints, environmental constraints, ecological constraints and technical constraints. Modeling results indicate that the desired system benefit will be between [15.17, 18.29] × 1012 yuan under the minimum violating probabilities; the optimized areas of commercial land, industrial land, agricultural land, transportation land, residential land, water land, green land, landfill land and unused land will be optimized cultivated land, forest land, grass land, water land, urban land, unused land and landfill will be [228234, 237844] ha, [47228, 58451] ha, [20982, 23718] ha, [33897, 35280] ha, [15215, 15907] ha, [528, 879] ha and [1023, 1260] ha. These data can be used for generating decision alternatives under different scenarios and thus help decision makers identify desired policies under various system-reliability constraints of ecological requirement and environmental capacity. Tradeoffs between system benefits and constraint-violation risks can be tackled. They are helpful for supporting (a decision of land-use allocation and government investment; (b formulation of local

  2. 17 CFR 242.400 - Customer margin requirements for security futures-authority, purpose, interpretation, and scope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Customer margin requirements..., AND NMS AND CUSTOMER MARGIN REQUIREMENTS FOR SECURITY FUTURES Customer Margin Requirements for Security Futures § 242.400 Customer margin requirements for security futures—authority, purpose...

  3. Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holman, I P; Brown, C; Janes, V; Sandars, D

    2017-02-01

    The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability.

  4. Peri-urban futures: Scenarios and models for land use change in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Provides insight + surprising solutions for the dramatic field of peri-urbanisation in Europe Introduces innovative tools for planners, scientists and lay-persons allowing to analyze the impact of peri-urbanisation onto sustainable development Has unique maps showing EU-periurbanisation effects...... on a pan-European level Has a conclusive didactic approach + text structure (e.g. inserts, boxes ...) Presently, peri-urbanisation is one of the most pervasive processes of land use change in Europe with strong impacts on both the environment and quality of life. It is a matter of great urgency...... to determine strategies and tools in support of sustainable development. The book synthesizes the results of PLUREL, a large European Commission funded research project (2007-2010). Tools and strategies of PLUREL address main challenges of managing land use in peri-urban areas. These results are presented...

  5. Vertebrate land invasions-past, present, and future: an introduction to the symposium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashley-Ross, Miriam A; Hsieh, S Tonia; Gibb, Alice C; Blob, Richard W

    2013-08-01

    The transition from aquatic to terrestrial habitats was a seminal event in vertebrate evolution because it precipitated a sudden radiation of species as new land animals diversified in response to novel physical and biological conditions. However, the first stages of this environmental transition presented numerous challenges to ancestrally aquatic organisms, and necessitated changes in the morphological and physiological mechanisms that underlie most life processes, among them movement, feeding, respiration, and reproduction. How did solutions to these functional challenges evolve? One approach to this question is to examine modern vertebrate species that face analogous demands; just as the first tetrapods lived at the margins of bodies of water and likely moved between water and land regularly, many extant fishes and amphibians use their body systems in both aquatic and terrestrial habitats on a daily basis. Thus, studies of amphibious vertebrates elucidate the functional demands of two very different habitats and clarify our understanding of the initial evolutionary challenges of moving onto land. A complementary approach is to use studies of the fossil record and comparative development to gain new perspectives on form and function of modern amphibious and non-amphibious vertebrate taxa. Based on the synthetic approaches presented in the symposium, it is clear that our understanding of aquatic-to-terrestrial transitions is greatly improved by the reciprocal integration of paleontological and neontological perspectives. In addition, common themes and new insights that emerged from this symposium point to the value of innovative approaches, new model species, and cutting-edge research techniques to elucidate the functional challenges and evolutionary changes associated with vertebrates' invasion of the land.

  6. Futures Analysis of Urban Land Use and Wetland Change in Saskatoon, Canada: An Application in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Sizo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a scenario-based approach to strategic environmental assessment (SEA for wetland trend analysis and land use and land cover (LUC modeling in an urban environment. The application is focused on the Saskatoon urban environment, a rapidly growing urban municipality in Canada’s prairie pothole region. Alternative future LUC was simulated using remote sensing data and city spatial planning documentation using a Markov Chain technique. Two alternatives were developed and compared for LUC change and threats to urban wetland sustainability: a zero alternative that simulated trends in urban development and wetland conservation under a business as usual scenario, in the absence of prescribed planning and zoning actions; and an alternative focused on implementation of current urban development plans, which simulated future LUC to account for prescribed wetland conservation strategies. Results show no improvement in future wetland conditions under the city’s planned growth and wetland conservation scenario versus the business as usual scenario. Results also indicate that a blanket wetland conservation strategy for the city may not be sufficient to overcome the historic trend of urban wetland loss; and that spatially distributed conservation rates, based on individual wetland water catchment LUC peculiarities, may be more effective in terms of wetland conservation. The paper also demonstrates the challenges to applied SEA in a rapidly changing urban planning context, where data are often sparse and inconsistent across the urban region, and provides potential solutions through LUC classification and prediction tools to help overcome data limitations to support land use planning decisions for wetland conservation.

  7. Dynamic modelling of future land use change under urbanization and climate change pressures: application to a case study in central Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquemin, I.; Fontaine, C. M.; Dendoncker, N.; François, L.; De Vreese, R.; Marek, A.; Mortelmans, D.; Van Herzele, A.; Devillet, G.

    2012-04-01

    Projecting the future of the evolution of socio-ecological systems to analyse their sustainability under climate or other environmental changes is not straightforward. Current projections usually use process-oriented models describing the complex interactions within the physical/biological systems (ecosystems), while the socio-economic constraints are represented with the help of scenarios. However, the actual evolution can be expected to be much more complex, because of the mutual interactions between ecological and socio-economic systems. To represent these interactions, models must integrate the complex process of human decision at individual or society levels. Moreover, models must be spatially explicit, defining elementary spatial units on which can act both the physical factors and the human decision process. These spatial units (e.g., farm fields) must be described not only in terms of energy, water, carbon and nutrient flows, but also in terms of the flow of ecosystem goods and services (EGS) they provide to the society together with the management costs required to sustain them. The provision of EGS may be altered in the future in response to changes in the climate system and the environment, but also through various human pressures on the landscape such as urbanization, as well as through the reaction of human societies to these changes in EGS provision. In the VOTES ("Valuation Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Services in a multifunctional peri-urban space") project, we attempt to model this coupled socio-ecological system by combining a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) with an agent-based model (ABM). The DVM (CARAIB; Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) model describes the evolution of physical and biological processes in the ecosystems, i.e. the impact of climate change and land management on the energy, water and carbon budgets, as well as the productivity of each simulated plant species present on each land unit. The original

  8. Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nitin Kumar Tripathi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the possible impacts of climate change and land use change and its combined effects on soil loss and net soil loss (erosion and deposition in the Mae Nam Nan sub-catchment, Thailand. Future climate from two general circulation models (GCMs and a regional circulation model (RCM consisting of HadCM3, NCAR CSSM3 and PRECIS RCM ware downscaled using a delta change approach. Cellular Automata/Markov (CA_Markov model was used to characterize future land use. Soil loss modeling using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE and sedimentation modeling in Idrisi software were employed to estimate soil loss and net soil loss under direct impact (climate change, indirect impact (land use change and full range of impact (climate and land use change to generate results at a 10 year interval between 2020 and 2040. Results indicate that soil erosion and deposition increase or decrease, depending on which climate and land use scenarios are considered. The potential for climate change to increase soil loss rate, soil erosion and deposition in future periods was established, whereas considerable decreases in erosion are projected when land use is increased from baseline periods. The combined climate and land use change analysis revealed that land use planning could be adopted to mitigate soil erosion and deposition in the future, in conjunction with the projected direct impact of climate change.

  9. Predicting Future Training Opportunities Using the Land-Use Evolution and Impact Assessment Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Westervelt, James D; Nemeth, Sarah B; White, Michael J; Kemme, Michael R; Morrison, Dawn A; Eastgate, Christa; Ginsberg, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The future training/testing capacities of military installations and their surrounding regions are increasingly based on today's smart regional planning in collaboration with surrounding cities, counties, and states...

  10. Distributed Control and Management of Renewable Electric Energy Resources for Future Grid Requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mokhtari, Ghassem; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Nourbakhsh, Ghavameddin

    2016-01-01

    It is anticipated that both medium- and low-voltage distribution networks will include high level of distributed renewable energy resources, in the future. The high penetration of these resources inevitably can introduce various power quality issues, including; overvoltage and overloading...... strategy is a promising approach to manage and utilise the resources in future distribution networks to effectively deal with grid electric quality issues and requirements. Jointly, utility and customers the owners of the resources in the network are considered as part of a practical coordination strategy...

  11. Water and Land Use Efficiency in Current and Potential Future US Corn and Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, E. S.; Zhang, Y.; Newmark, R. L.

    2012-12-01

    Biofuels represent an opportunity for domestic fuel production from renewable energy sources with potential environmental and social benefits such as reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) and promoting rural development. However, as demand for biofuel continues to increase worldwide, concerns about land competition between food and fuel, excessive water usage and other unintended environmental consequences have grown. Through a comparative study between US corn ethanol and Brazilian sugarcane ethanol, we examine the energy, land, water and GHG performance of the two largest industrial fuel ethanol production systems in the world. Our comparisons include current and potential future systems with improved agronomic practices, crop yields, ethanol conversion processes, and utilization of agricultural residues. Our results suggest that the average water footprints of US corn ethanol and Brazilian sugarcane ethanol are fairly close (108 and 110 m3/GJ of ethanol, respectively) while the variations can range from 50 to 250 m3/GJ for sugarcane ethanol and 50 to380 m3/GJ for corn ethanol. Results emphasize the need to examine the water footprint within the context of local and regional climatic variability, water availability, competing uses (e.g. agricultural, industrial, and municipal water needs) and other ecosystem constraints. Research is under way (at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and other institutions) to develop models to analyze water supply and demand at the watershed-scale for current and future biomass production, and to understand the tradeoffs among water supply, demand and quality due to more intensive agricultural practices and expansion of biofuels. Land use efficiency metrics, with regards to life cycle GHG emissions (without land use change) savings through gasoline displacement with ethanol, illustrate the progression of the biofuel industry and the importance of maximizing bioenergy production by utilizing both the crops and the residues. A recent

  12. Land Use Requirements of Modern Wind Power Plants in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denholm, P.; Hand, M.; Jackson, M.; Ong, S.

    2009-08-01

    This report provides data and analysis of the land use associated with modern, large wind power plants (defined as greater than 20 megawatts (MW) and constructed after 2000). The analysis discusses standard land-use metrics as established in the life-cycle assessment literature, and then discusses their applicability to wind power plants. The report identifies two major 'classes' of wind plant land use: 1) direct impact (i.e., disturbed land due to physical infrastructure development), and 2) total area (i.e., land associated with the complete wind plant project). The analysis also provides data for each of these classes, derived from project applications, environmental impact statements, and other sources. It attempts to identify relationships among land use, wind plant configuration, and geography. The analysts evaluated 172 existing or proposed projects, which represents more than 26 GW of capacity. In addition to providing land-use data and summary statistics, they identify several limitations to the existing wind project area data sets, and suggest additional analysis that could aid in evaluating actual land use and impacts associated with deployment of wind energy.

  13. Land-Use Requirements for Solar Power Plants in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ong, S.; Campbell, C.; Denholm, P.; Margolis, R.; Heath, G.

    2013-06-01

    This report provides data and analysis of the land use associated with utility-scale ground-mounted solar facilities, defined as installations greater than 1 MW. We begin by discussing standard land-use metrics as established in the life-cycle assessment literature and then discuss their applicability to solar power plants. We present total and direct land-use results for various solar technologies and system configurations, on both a capacity and an electricity-generation basis. The total area corresponds to all land enclosed by the site boundary. The direct area comprises land directly occupied by solar arrays, access roads, substations, service buildings, and other infrastructure. As of the third quarter of 2012, the solar projects we analyze represent 72% of installed and under-construction utility-scale PV and CSP capacity in the United States.

  14. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE) and the San Pedro River Basin (U.S./Mexico).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, J. E.; Burns, I. S.; Guertin, D. P.; Kepner, W. G.; Goodrich, D. C.

    2016-12-01

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time that was developed and applied on the San Pedro River Basin was expanded and utilized on the South Platte River Basin as well. Future urban growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and implement a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present, evaluate, and compare results from scenarios for watersheds in two different geographic and climatic regions, 3) determine watershed specific implications of this type of future land cover change analysis.

  15. Future directions for hydropedology: quantifying impacts of global change on land use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Vepraskas

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Hydropedology is well positioned to address contemporary issues resulting from climate change. We propose a six-step process by which digital, field-scale maps will be produced to show where climate change impacts will be greatest for two land uses: a home sites using septic systems, and b wetlands. State and federal laws have defined critical water table levels that can be used to determine where septic systems will function well or fail, and where wetlands are likely to occur. Hydrologic models along with historic rainfall and temperature data can be used to compute long records of water table data. However, it is difficult to extrapolate such data across land regions, because too little work has been done to test different ways for doing this reliably. The modeled water table data can be used to define soil drainage classes for individual mapping units, and the drainage classes used to extrapolate the data regionally using existing digital soil survey maps. Estimates of changes in precipitation and temperature can also be input into the models to compute changes to water table levels and drainage classes. To do this effectively, more work needs to be done on developing daily climate files from the monthly climate change predictions. Technology currently exists to use the NRCS Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO Database with hydrologic model predictions to develop maps within a GIS that show climate change impacts on septic system performance and wetland boundaries. By using these maps, planners will have the option to scale back development in sensitive areas, or simply monitor the water quality of these areas for pathogenic organisms. The calibrated models and prediction maps should be useful throughout the Coastal Plain region. Similar work for other climate-change and land-use issues can be a valuable contribution from hydropedologists.

  16. Consequences for designer and manufacturer of mechanical components due to future requirements in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hans-Joachim, Frank

    2001-01-01

    In the frame of European harmonization, a lot of changes on requirements for designer and manufacturer of mechanical components have been performed. Differed organizations are involved in preparing future requirements for nuclear application. On one side the French German cooperation on the development of EPR. At the origin of this project was the common decision in 1989 of Framatome and Siemens to cooperate through NPI, to design the Nuclear Island, which meets the future needs of utilities. EDF and a group of the main German Utilities joined this cooperation in 1991 and since then they have been totally involved to the progress of the work. In addition, all the process was backed up to the end by the strong cooperation between the French and the German. Safety Authorities, which have a long lasting cooperation to define common requirements, which have to be applied to future Nuclear Power Plants. Furthermore an organization has been set up to elaborate common codes related to the EPR design, at the level of the French design and construction rules (RCC) or the German KTA safety standards, the so-called EPR technical codes (ETC). On the other side, the European utilities co-operate on a much broader basis for the establishment of European Utilities Requirements (EUR). These requirements are prepared by a group of European utilities that represent the major European electricity generating companies that are determined to keep the nuclear option open. The technical requirements specified in the EUR document define the boundaries in which future plants need to be designed in order to be acceptable for the needs of the utilities and in order to fulfill the basic requirements of competitive power generation costs and licensability in all countries represented in the EUR group. All the new requirements have to be applied by designer and manufacturer. Siemens /SNP act as a designer of a lot of various vessels and tanks, heat exchangers and other items of process

  17. The system of dose limitation and its optimization requirement: Present status and future outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, A.J.

    1984-01-01

    Optimization of radiation protection is a relevant and controversial requirement of the system of dose limitation currently recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Since the first European Scientific Seminar on Experience and Methods on Optimization - held by the Commission of the European Communities in 1979 - and several related seminars and symposia organized by the IAEA, many international efforts have been made to promote the practical implementation of the requirement. Recently, the ICRP published a report of ICRP Committee 4 on cost-benefit analysis in the optimization of radiation protection (ICRP Publication 37); it provides guidance on the principles and methods of application of the requirement. Ultimately, this seminar demonstrates the continuous interest of the international community in the proper use of optimization. This paper is intended to contribute to the seminar's objective, discussing the current issues concerning the implementation of the requirement and exploring perspectives for future applications of the principles involved in optimization

  18. Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

    2015-08-01

    Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by

  19. Water consumption footprint and land requirements of large-scale alternative diesel and jet fuel production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staples, Mark D; Olcay, Hakan; Malina, Robert; Trivedi, Parthsarathi; Pearlson, Matthew N; Strzepek, Kenneth; Paltsev, Sergey V; Wollersheim, Christoph; Barrett, Steven R H

    2013-01-01

    Middle distillate (MD) transportation fuels, including diesel and jet fuel, make up almost 30% of liquid fuel consumption in the United States. Alternative drop-in MD and biodiesel could potentially reduce dependence on crude oil and the greenhouse gas intensity of transportation. However, the water and land resource requirements of these novel fuel production technologies must be better understood. This analysis quantifies the lifecycle green and blue water consumption footprints of producing: MD from conventional crude oil; Fischer-Tropsch MD from natural gas and coal; fermentation and advanced fermentation MD from biomass; and hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids MD and biodiesel from oilseed crops, throughout the contiguous United States. We find that FT MD and alternative MD derived from rainfed biomass have lifecycle blue water consumption footprints of 1.6 to 20.1 Lwater/LMD, comparable to conventional MD, which ranges between 4.1 and 7.4 Lwater/LMD. Alternative MD derived from irrigated biomass has a lifecycle blue water consumption footprint potentially several orders of magnitude larger, between 2.7 and 22 600 Lwater/LMD. Alternative MD derived from biomass has a lifecycle green water consumption footprint between 1.1 and 19 200 Lwater/LMD. Results are disaggregated to characterize the relationship between geo-spatial location and lifecycle water consumption footprint. We also quantify the trade-offs between blue water consumption footprint and areal MD productivity, which ranges from 490 to 4200 LMD/ha, under assumptions of rainfed and irrigated biomass cultivation. Finally, we show that if biomass cultivation for alternative MD is irrigated, the ratio of the increase in areal MD productivity to the increase in blue water consumption footprint is a function of geo-spatial location and feedstock-to-fuel production pathway.

  20. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-08-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

  1. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants

  2. Combining emperical and theory-based land use modelling approaches to assess future availability of land and economic potential for sustainable biofuel production: Argentina as a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diogo, V.; van der Hilst, Floortje; van Eijck, Janske; Faaij, André; Verstegen, Judith; Hilbert, J.; Carballo, S.; Volante, J.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a land-use modelling framework is presented combining empirical and theory-based modelling approaches to determine economic potential of biofuel production avoiding indirect land-use changes (iLUC) resulting from land competition with other functions. The empirical approach explores

  3. Virginia Sustainable Travel Choices : Effects of Land Use and Location on Current and Future Travel Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    Diverse states like Virginia, with a mix of urban, suburban, and rural environments and transportation systems, cannot rely on a single approach to increasing transportation sustainability, but require an understanding of what has worked and what mig...

  4. Employers’ Perspectives on Future Roles and Skills Requirements for Australian Health Librarians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheryl Hamill

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective – This study, which comprises one stage of a larger project (ALIA/HLA Workforce and Education Research Project, aimed to discover employers’ views on how (or whether health librarians assist in achieving the mission-critical goals of their organizations; how health librarians contribute to the organization now and into the future; and what are the current and future skills requirements of health librarians.Methods – Each member of the project group approached between one and five individuals known to them to generate a convenience sample of 22 employers of health librarians. There were 15 semi-structured interviews conducted between October and November 2010 with employers in the hospital, academic, government, private, consumer health and not-for-profit sectors. The interview schedule was sent to each interviewee prior to the interview so that they had time to consider their responses. The researchers wrote up the interview notes using the interview schedule and submitted them to the principal researcher, who combined the data into one document. Content analysis of the data was used to identify major themes.Results – Employers expressed a clear sense of respect for the roles and responsibilities of library staff in their organizations. Areas of practice such as education and training, scientific research and clinical support were highlighted as critical for the future. Current areas of practice such as using technology and systems to manage information, providing information services to meet user needs and management of health information resources in a range of formats were identified as remaining highly relevant for the future. There was potential for health librarians to play a more active and strategic role in their organizations, and to repackage their traditional skill sets for anticipated future roles. Interpersonal skills and the role of health librarians as the interface between clinicians and information technology

  5. Actual problems of the antimonopoly requirements` observance in the bidding for the sale of land in the Russian Federation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey Pavlovich ANISIMOV

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive view of the topic of Antimonopoly regulation in the sphere of land auctions for the Russian legal science and legal science other Eastern European countries is highly relevant. The importance of such research is that foreign companies having business in Russia are not always aware of specificity in land tendering legal regulation and antimonopoly requirements in this sphere. Moreover, the practice of violation of antimonopoly legislation in the sphere of land tendering and probable means of legislation improvement may hereby present more interest for them. The authors cite and analyze various typical violations in the sphere of land tendering, including publication of land auctions notices in an improper printing agency; lack of applications registration and putting forward extra requirements towards the participants; display for land parcels auctions for which no technical specifications of networking have been determined and no payment for such networking has been established; attempts of local administration to provide land parcels without prior approval of the objects’ places of location and without auctions (though such a procedure is of an extremely local character and is only performed in cases expressly specified by the Federal Law; collection of extra and illegal fees from physical and legal entities for participation in auctions; tendering in cases when they are not to be carried out under the Law (gardening, haymaking; underpricing of a land parcel, etc. Eventually a conclusion is drawn on the effectiveness of auctions which shall be secured by establishing a legal procedure which details and definitely determines tendering regulations, requirements towards the participants and order of agreement’s conclusion. Control on the part of antimonopoly bodies, undoubtedly, allows forming barriers for dishonest participants of the auctions. The authors assume that it is rather difficult to achieve absence of mal-usage by

  6. Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coumou, Dim; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Climatic warming of about 0.5 ° C in the global mean since the 1970s has strongly increased the occurrence-probability of heat extremes on monthly to seasonal time scales. For the 21st century, climate models predict more substantial warming. Here we show that the multi-model mean of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate models accurately reproduces the evolution over time and spatial patterns of the historically observed increase in monthly heat extremes. For the near-term (i.e., by 2040), the models predict a robust, several-fold increase in the frequency of such heat extremes, irrespective of the emission scenario. However, mitigation can strongly reduce the number of heat extremes by the second half of the 21st century. Unmitigated climate change causes most (>50%) continental regions to move to a new climatic regime with the coldest summer months by the end of the century substantially hotter than the hottest experienced today. We show that the land fraction experiencing extreme heat as a function of global mean temperature follows a simple cumulative distribution function, which depends only on natural variability and the level of spatial heterogeneity in the warming. (letter)

  7. Tool Support for Distributed Software Development : The past - present - and future of gaps between user requirements and tool functionalities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrera, Miles; van Hillegersberg, Jos; Harmsen, Frank; Amrit, Chintan Amrit; Geisberger, Eva; Keil, Patrick; Kuhrmann, Marco

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the past, present, and our view on future user requirements and tool functionalities supporting Globally Distributed Software Teams and highlights the changing emphasis in these user requirements.

  8. Grid requirements applicable to future NPPs in the new European Electricity Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beato Castro, D.; Padill, C. M.

    2000-01-01

    With a view to keeping nuclear energy as an option for future power generation in a competitive market and taking advantage of the current operating experience, a group of European electric utilities have come together to define common requirements for the design and supply of future Light Water Reactor (LWR) plants connected to the electrical system. These requirements, defined with the aim of standardizing and adapting design to the conditions of the new electricity framework, are being included in the European Utility Requirements (EUR) document. Although there are different types of power plants operating appropriately in large electrical systems, the idea is to find the minimum requirements that will allow growth of this type of energy in the European electricity industry without reducing quality, safety and reliability of interconnected electrical systems. It is therefore necessary to take into account the features of the existing power systems and the operating characteristics and design of nuclear power plants so as to harmonize their respective technical peculiarities in the framework of the deregulated electricity sector. The definition of these grid requirements is based primarily on the operating conditions of the Union pour la Coordination de la Production et le Transport de L'Electricite (UCPTE) grid and takes into account the current Grid Code of the main European countries, for the forthcoming Issue C. This paper sets outs the most relevant aspects of the grid requirements, included in Chapter 2.3 of the EUR document Grid Requirements, Issue B, for the connection of future nuclear power plants in the European electricity system, and others that are being considered in the preparation of the new issue of the document that will take into account the deregulated electricity market situation and deal with the following aspects: General characteristics. Operation of a plant under normal grid conditions. Operation of a plant under disturbed grid

  9. Simulating the impacts of future land use and climate changes on surface water quality in the Des Plaines River watershed, Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area, Illinois.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Cyril O; Weng, Qihao

    2011-09-15

    Modeling the effects of past and current land use composition and climatic patterns on surface water quality provides valuable information for environmental and land planning. This study predicts the future impacts of urban land use and climate changes on surface water quality within Des Plaines River watershed, Illinois, between 2010 and 2030. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used to characterize three future land use/planning scenarios. Each scenario encourages low density residential growth, normal urban growth, and commercial growth, respectively. Future climate patterns examined include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) B1 and A1B groups. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to estimate total suspended solids and phosphorus concentration generated at a 10 year interval. The predicted results indicate that for a large portion of the watershed, the concentration of total suspended solids (TSS) would be higher under B1 and A1B climate scenarios during late winter and early spring compared to the same period in 2010; while the summer period largely demonstrates a reverse trend. Model results further suggest that by 2020, phosphorus concentration would be higher during the summer under B1 climate scenario compared to 2010, and is expected to wane by 2030. The projected phosphorus concentrations during the late winter and early spring periods vary across climate and land use scenarios. The analysis also denotes that middle and high density residential development can reduce excess TSS concentration, while the establishment of dense commercial and industrial development might help ameliorate high phosphorus levels. The combined land use and climate change analysis revealed land use development schemes that can be adopted to mitigate potential future water quality impairment. This research provides important insights into possible adverse consequences on surface water quality and resources

  10. More green infrastructure is required to maintain ecosystem services under current trends in land-use change in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maes, Joachim; Barbosa, Ana; Baranzelli, Claudia; Zulian, Grazia; Batista E Silva, Filipe; Vandecasteele, Ine; Hiederer, Roland; Liquete, Camino; Paracchini, Maria Luisa; Mubareka, Sarah; Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Castillo, Carolina Perpiña; Lavalle, Carlo

    Green infrastructure (GI), a network of nature, semi-natural areas and green space, delivers essential ecosystem services which underpin human well-being and quality of life. Maintaining ecosystem services through the development of GI is therefore increasingly recognized by policies as a strategy to cope with potentially changing conditions in the future. This paper assessed how current trends of land-use change have an impact on the aggregated provision of eight ecosystem services at the regional scale of the European Union, measured by the Total Ecosystem Services Index (TESI8). Moreover, the paper reports how further implementation of GI across Europe can help maintain ecosystem services at baseline levels. Current demographic, economic and agricultural trends, which affect land use, were derived from the so called Reference Scenario. This scenario is established by the European Commission to assess the impact of energy and climate policy up to 2050. Under the Reference Scenario, economic growth, coupled with the total population, stimulates increasing urban and industrial expansion. TESI8 is expected to decrease across Europe between 0 and 5 % by 2020 and between 10 and 15 % by 2050 relative to the base year 2010. Based on regression analysis, we estimated that every additional percent increase of the proportion of artificial land needs to be compensated with an increase of 2.2 % of land that qualifies as green infrastructure in order to maintain ecosystem services at 2010 levels.

  11. Sea-Level Rise and Land Subsidence in Deltas: Estimating Future Flood Risk Through Integrated Natural and Human System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

    2016-12-01

    Deltas are highly sensitive to local human activities, land subsidence, regional water management, global sea-level rise, and climate extremes. We present a new delta flood exposure and risk framework for estimating the sensitivity of deltas to relative sea-level rise. We have applied this framework to a set of global environmental, geophysical, and social indicators over 48 major river deltas to quantify how contemporary risks vary across delta systems. The risk modeling framework incorporates upstream sediment flux and coastal land subsidence models, global empirical estimates of contemporary storm surge exposure, and population distribution and growth. Future scenarios are used to test the impacts on coastal flood risk of upstream dam construction, coastal population growth, accelerated sea-level rise, and enhanced storm surge. Results suggest a wide range of outcomes across different delta systems within each scenario. Deltas in highly engineered watersheds (Mississippi, Rhine) exhibit less sensitivity to increased dams due to saturation of sediment retention effects, though planned or under-construction dams are expected to have a substantial impact in the Yangtze, Irrawaddy, and Magdalena deltas. Population growth and sea-level rise are expected to be the dominant drivers of increased human risk in most deltas, with important exceptions in several countries, particularly China, where population are forecast to contract over the next several decades.

  12. Land-Use Regression Modelling of Intra-Urban Air Pollution Variation in China: Current Status and Future Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baihuiqian He

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Rapid urbanization in China is leading to substantial adverse air quality issues, particularly for NO2 and particulate matter (PM. Land-use regression (LUR models are now being applied to simulate pollutant concentrations with high spatial resolution in Chinese urban areas. However, Chinese urban areas differ from those in Europe and North America, for example in respect of population density, urban morphology and pollutant emissions densities, so it is timely to assess current LUR studies in China to highlight current challenges and identify future needs. Details of twenty-four recent LUR models for NO2 and PM2.5/PM10 (particles with aerodynamic diameters <2.5 µm and <10 µm are tabulated and reviewed as the basis for discussion in this paper. We highlight that LUR modelling in China is currently constrained by a scarcity of input data, especially air pollution monitoring data. There is an urgent need for accessible archives of quality-assured measurement data and for higher spatial resolution proxy data for urban emissions, particularly in respect of traffic-related variables. The rapidly evolving nature of the Chinese urban landscape makes maintaining up-to-date land-use and urban morphology datasets a challenge. We also highlight the importance for Chinese LUR models to be subject to appropriate validation statistics. Integration of LUR with portable monitor data, remote sensing, and dispersion modelling has the potential to enhance derivation of urban pollution maps.

  13. Grid-connected vehicles as the core of future land-based transport systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, Richard; Perl, Anthony

    2007-01-01

    Grid-connected vehicles (GCVs)-e.g., electric trains, metros, trams, and trolley buses-are propelled by electric motors directly connected to remote power sources. Their low at-vehicle energy consumption and ability to use a wide range of renewable energy sources make them strong contenders for urban and interurban transport systems in an era of energy constraints that favours use of renewable fuels, which may lie ahead. Needs for autonomous motorised mobility could be acceptably met in large measure by deployment of personal GCVs, also known as personal rapid transit (PRT). Alternatives, including fuel-cell vehicles and dual-drive vehicles fuelled with ethanol, will be less feasible. The 'car of the future' may not be an automobile so much as a PRT element of a comprehensive GCV-based system that offers at least as much utility and convenience as today's transport systems

  14. Modelling land-use effects of future urbanization using cellular automata

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

    2013-01-01

    project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2040 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and modelled using the cellular automata model LUCIA. For the modelling, an Eastern...... Danish case area was selected, comprising of the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different descriptive GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban density and structure...... strategies can produce, changing the shape of the urban landscape. The scenarios visualized showed to outline different planning strategies that could be implemented, creating a more homogenous urban structure targeted at a reduction of transportation work and thus energy consumption. This will lead to less...

  15. New land use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazonia: how to reach a sustainable future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguiar, A. P. D.; Vieira, I.; Toledo, P.; Araujo, R.; Coelho, A.; Pinho, P.; Assis, T.; Dalla-Nora, E. L.; Kawakami Savaget, E.; Batistella, M.

    2014-12-01

    Following an intense deforestation process initiated in the 1960s, clear-cut deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring and control systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Although regional social indicators have also slightly improved, society remains unequal and violent, both in urban and rural areas. Furthermore, the combined results of the fall of deforestation and the increased economic importance of the agribusiness sector have led to the political weakening of the so-called socio-environmental model. Thus, the current situation indicates a future of low (clear-cut) carbon emissions and low social conditions. On the other hand, other threats remain, including forest degradation derived from illegal logging and forest fires. There is also considerable uncertainty about the fate of the remaining forest areas as multiple forces can contribute to the return of high deforestation, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We present the results of a participatory scenario process, in which we discussed the future of the region until 2050 combining normative and exploratory approaches. We include an ideal "Sustainability" scenario (Scenario A) in which we envision major socioeconomic, institutional and environmental achievements. Scenario B stays in the "Middle of the road", in which the society maintains some of the positive environmental trends of the last decade, but not reversing the structural situation of social inequities. Scenario C is a pessimistic vision, named "Fragmentation" with high deforestation rates and low social development. The goal of the work was twofold: (a) to propose a method to enrich the discussion among different private and governmental stakeholders

  16. Vulnerability of Water Resources under Climate and Land Use Change: Evaluation of Present and Future Threats for Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nachtnebel, Hans-Peter; Wesemann, Johannes; Herrnegger, Mathew; Senoner, Tobias; Schulz, Karsten

    2015-04-01

    Climate and Land Use Change can have severe impacts on natural water resources needed for domestic, agricultural and industrial water use. In order to develop adaptation strategies, it is necessary to assess the present and future vulnerability of the water resources on the basis of water quantity, water quality and adaptive capacity indicators. Therefore a methodological framework was developed within the CC-Ware project and a detailed assessment was performed for Austria. The Water Exploitation Index (WEI) is introduced as a quantitative indicator. It is defined as the ratio between the water demand and the water availability. Water availability is assessed by a high resolution grid-based water balance model, utilizing the meteorological information from bias corrected regional climate models. The demand term can be divided into domestic, agricultural and industrial water demand and is assessed on the water supply association level. The Integrated Groundwater Pollution Load Index (GWPLI) represents an indicator for areas at risk regarding water quality, considering agricultural loads (nitrate pollution loads), potential erosion and potential risks from landfills. Except for the landfills, the information for the current situation is based on the CORINE Landcover data. Future changes were predicted utilizing the PRELUDE land use scenarios. Since vulnerability is also dependent on the adaptive capacity of a system, the Adaptive Capacity Index is introduced. The Adaptive Capacity Index thereby combines the Ecosystem Service Index (ESSI), which represents three water related ecosystem services (Water Provision, Water Quantity Regulation and Water Quality Regulation) and the regional economic capacity expressed by the gross value added. On the basis of these indices, the Overall Vulnerability of the water resources can be determined for the present and the future. For Austria the different indices were elaborated. Maps indicating areas of different levels of

  17. Future changes in water requirements of Boro rice in the face of climate change in North-West Bangladesh

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acharjee, Tapos Kumar; Ludwig, Fulco; Halsema, van Gerardo; Hellegers, Petra; Supit, Iwan

    2017-01-01

    Understanding future changes in crop water requirements and irrigation demand in the context of climate change is essential for long-term water resources management and agricultural planning. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on future water requirements of dry season Boro

  18. Understanding the life cycle surface land requirements of natural gas-fired electricity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordaan, Sarah M.; Heath, Garvin A.; Macknick, Jordan; Bush, Brian W.; Mohammadi, Ehsan; Ben-Horin, Dan; Urrea, Victoria; Marceau, Danielle

    2017-10-01

    The surface land use of fossil fuel acquisition and utilization has not been well characterized, inhibiting consistent comparisons of different electricity generation technologies. Here we present a method for robust estimation of the life cycle land use of electricity generated from natural gas through a case study that includes inventories of infrastructure, satellite imagery and well-level production. Approximately 500 sites in the Barnett Shale of Texas were sampled across five life cycle stages (production, gathering, processing, transmission and power generation). Total land use (0.62 m2 MWh-1, 95% confidence intervals ±0.01 m2 MWh-1) was dominated by midstream infrastructure, particularly pipelines (74%). Our results were sensitive to power plant heat rate (85-190% of the base case), facility lifetime (89-169%), number of wells per site (16-100%), well lifetime (92-154%) and pipeline right of way (58-142%). When replicated for other gas-producing regions and different fuels, our approach offers a route to enable empirically grounded comparisons of the land footprint of energy choices.

  19. Modeling and projecting land-use and land-cover changes with Cellular Automaton in considering landscape trajectories : An improvement for simulation of plausible future states

    OpenAIRE

    Houet , Thomas; Hubert-Moy , Laurence

    2006-01-01

    International audience; The modeling and projecting of land use change is essential to the assessment of consequent environmental impacts. In agricultural landscapes, land use patterns nearly always exhibit spatial autocorrelation, that is due in large part, to the clustered distribution of landscape features as hedgerows and wetlands, and also to the spatial interactions between land uses types itself. The importance of such structural spatial dependencies has to be taken into account when c...

  20. Future irrigation water requirements in the Ijuí River basin, RS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kayoma K. da Silva

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Changes in temperature and precipitation intensity and frequency have influenced the water demand for irrigation. Regions that have agriculture-based economies, as in the Ijuí River basin, are often affected by periods of drought or excessive rainfall, which is harmful for agricultural productivity. This study aimed to evaluate future irrigation water demands of four crops in this basin (bean, corn, wheat and soybean, comparing them with a baseline period. Meteorological data forecasts were obtained from the regional climate model ETA 40 CTRL for the climatic scenario A1B, for the baseline (1961-1990 and future (2011-2100 periods. The one-dimensional SWAP model was used to estimate the water demand for irrigation. The results showed that, in the future, irrigation water requirements will be smaller for all crops. In the short term (2011-2040, water demands were similar to those for the baseline period, but from the middle of the century onwards (2041-2100, greater reductions were observed.

  1. Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

    2014-08-01

    Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined

  2. Can conservation funding be left to carbon finance? Evidence from participatory future land use scenarios in Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravikumar, Ashwin; Larjavaara, Markku; Larson, Anne; Kanninen, Markku

    2017-01-01

    Revenues derived from carbon have been seen as an important tool for supporting forest conservation over the past decade. At the same time, there is high uncertainty about how much revenue can reasonably be expected from land use emissions reductions initiatives. Despite this uncertainty, REDD+ projects and conservation initiatives that aim to take advantage of available or, more commonly, future funding from carbon markets have proliferated. This study used participatory multi-stakeholder workshops to develop divergent future scenarios of land use in eight landscapes in four countries around the world: Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico. The results of these future scenario building exercises were analyzed using a new tool, CarboScen, for calculating the landscape carbon storage implications of different future land use scenarios. The findings suggest that potential revenues from carbon storage or emissions reductions are significant in some landscapes (most notably the peat forests of Indonesia), and much less significant in others (such as the low-carbon forests of Zanzibar and the interior of Tanzania). The findings call into question the practicality of many conservation programs that hinge on expectations of future revenue from carbon finance. The future scenarios-based approach is useful to policy-makers and conservation program developers in distinguishing between landscapes where carbon finance can substantially support conservation, and landscapes where other strategies for conservation and land use should be prioritized.

  3. Staffing requirements for future small and medium reactors (SMRs) based on operating experience and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    At the time of this study there were about 160 small and medium sized nuclear power reactors (referred to as SMRs) in operation worldwide, and about 25 more under construction. Operation and maintenance costs for operating SMRs represent a substantial portion of the cost of electricity produced. Of these costs, the direct and indirect cost of staff represents the major cost component. In recent years, particularly since 1990, there has been increased interest in SMRs by many developing countries wishing to take advantage of nuclear power and several small and medium reactor designs are in various stages of development. To enhance the economic competitive position of SMRs relative to alternative methods of electricity generation, it is essential to ensure that new SMRs can be operated reliably and efficiently using the optimum number of staff. This publication reviews the lessons learned from the reactor operation, and the insights gained through the design of new SMRs, with a view to optimizing staffing in order to improve overall plant economics without compromising safety.This publication is intended to evaluate the estimated staffing size of various SMRs, the staff qualification and training required for the operation of future SMRs. and the key issues which impact the staffing requirements that should be considered in the development and deployment of future SMRs

  4. Futurism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foy, Jane Loring

    The objectives of this research report are to gain insight into the main problems of the future and to ascertain the attitudes that the general population has toward the treatment of these problems. In the first section of this report the future is explored socially, psychologically, and environmentally. The second section describes the techniques…

  5. New demands on water and land in Bolivia's Altiplano require new ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2015-02-12

    Feb 12, 2015 ... Bolivia's Altiplano or "high plain" is a semi-arid plateau that makes up one-third of the country's land area and is home to 2.8 million of its people, 30% of the total population. The Altiplano is also one of the poorest areas of the country. Water has always been scarce in this region, but impacts of climate ...

  6. The requirements for the future e-beam mask writer: statistical analysis of pattern accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sang Hee; Choi, Jin; Kim, Hee Bom; Kim, Byung Gook; Cho, Han-Ku

    2011-11-01

    As semiconductor features shrink in size and pitch, the extreme control of CD uniformity, MTT and image placement is needed for mask fabrication with e-beam lithography. Among the many sources of CD and image placement error, the error resulting from e-beam mask writer becomes more important than before. CD and positioning error by e-beam mask writer is mainly related to the imperfection of e-beam deflection accuracy in optic system and the charging and contamination of column. To avoid these errors, the e-beam mask writer should be designed taking into account for these effects. However, the writing speed is considered for machine design with the highest priority, because the e-beam shot count is increased rapidly due to design shrink and aggressive OPC. The increment of shot count can make the pattern shift problem due to statistical issue resulting from e-beam deflection error and the total shot count in layout. And it affects the quality of CD and image placement too. In this report, the statistical approach on CD and image placement error caused by e-beam shot position error is presented. It is estimated for various writing conditions including the intrinsic e-beam positioning error of VSB writer. From the simulation study, the required e-beam shot position accuracy to avoid pattern shift problem in 22nm node and beyond is estimated taking into account for total shot count. And the required local CD uniformity is calculated for various e-beam writing conditions. The image placement error is also simulated for various conditions including e-beam writing field position error. Consequently, the requirements for the future e-beam mask writer and the writing conditions are discussed. And in terms of e-beam shot noise, LER caused by exposure dose and shot position error is studied for future e-beam mask writing for 22nm node and beyond.

  7. Future planetary X-ray and gamma-ray remote sensing system and in situ requirements for room temperature solid state detectors

    CERN Document Server

    Trombka, J I; Starr, R; Clark, P E; Floyd, S R

    1999-01-01

    X-Ray and gamma-ray remote sensing observations find important applications in the study of the development of the planets. Orbital measurements can be carried out on solar-system bodies whose atmospheres and trapped radiation environments do not interfere significantly with the emissions. Elemental compositions can be inferred from observations of these line emissions. Future planetary missions also will involve landing both stationery and roving probes on planetary surfaces. Both X-ray and gamma-ray spectrometers will be used for performing elemental analysis of surface samples. These future planetary missions will impose a number of constraints: the flight instruments must be significantly reduced in weight from those previously flown; for many missions, gravity assist will be required, greatly increasing mission duration, resulting in the passage of several years before the first scientific measurement of a solar system body. The detector systems must operate reliably after years of cosmic-ray irradiation...

  8. Staffing requirements for future small and medium reactors based on projections in the Russian Federation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonovsky, G.M.; Kodochigov, N.G.; Kurachenkov, A.V.; Novikov, V.V.

    2001-01-01

    Experimental Design Bureau of Mechanical Engineering (OKBM) specializes in the development of small and medium power reactors having different purposes. They include reactor plants for NPHPP, nuclear district heating power plants and propulsion plants. Small and medium power plants have simpler processes of electricity and heat production, less systems, simpler control algorithms and considerably enhanced inherent safety properties. These plants are mainly equipped with passive safety systems. These properties are especially characteristic for reactor plants of nuclear district heating power plants and HTG reactor plants. The designs of small and medium power plants actually provide a high degree of control automation which considerably reduces workload on the personnel in both normal and abnormal operation conditions. All this allows the reduction in personnel for small and medium power reactors if compared to high capacity reactor plants. But due to objective reasons the specific number of personnel (man/MW) for average and especially small capacity reactors considerably exceeds the value for high capacity reactor plants. At the same time one can propose a set of organization - technical measures allowing the increase in this value in future. Safety requirements imposed for small and average capacity reactors are the same or more strict than those for high capacity reactors. That's why the requirements to the training of personnel for such reactor plants are not allowed to be lowered if compared to the requirements imposed to the personnel of high capacity reactors. (author)

  9. Slow and steady wins the race? Future climate and land use change leaves the imperiled Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) behind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Christopher M.; Bateman, Brooke L.; Gorzo, Jessica M.; Reid, Brendan; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Peery, M. Zachariah; Heglund, Patricia J.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Pidgeon, Anna M.

    2018-01-01

    Climate change is accompanied by shifts in species distributions, as portions of current ranges become less suitable. Maintaining or improving landscape connectivity to facilitate species movements is a primary approach to mitigate the effects of climate change on biodiversity. However, it is not clear how ongoing changes in land use and climate may affect the existing connectivity of landscapes. We evaluated shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity for the imperiled Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) in Wisconsin using species distribution modeling in combination with different future scenarios of both land use change and climate change for the 2050s. We found that climate change had significant effects on both habitat suitability and connectivity, however, there was little difference in the magnitude of effects among different economic scenarios. Under both our low- and high-CO2 emissions scenarios, suitable habitat for the Blanding's turtle shifted northward. In the high-emissions scenario, almost no suitable habitat remained for Blanding's turtle in Wisconsin by the 2050s and there was up to a 100,000-fold increase in landscape resistance to turtle movement, suggesting the landscape essentially becomes impassable. Habitat loss and landscape resistance were exponentially greater in southern versus northern Wisconsin, indicating a strong trailing edge effect. Thus, populations at the southern edge of the range are likely to “fall behind” shifts in suitable habitat faster than northern populations. Given its limited dispersal capability, loss of suitable habitat may occur at a rate far faster than the Blanding's turtle can adjust to changing conditions via shifts in range.

  10. Future aerospace ground test facility requirements for the Arnold Engineering Development Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchner, Mark E.; Baron, Judson R.; Bogdonoff, Seymour M.; Carter, Donald I.; Couch, Lana M.; Fanning, Arthur E.; Heiser, William H.; Koff, Bernard L.; Melnik, Robert E.; Mercer, Stephen C.

    1992-01-01

    Arnold Engineering Development Center (AEDC) was conceived at the close of World War II, when major new developments in flight technology were presaged by new aerodynamic and propulsion concepts. During the past 40 years, AEDC has played a significant part in the development of many aerospace systems. The original plans were extended through the years by some additional facilities, particularly in the area of propulsion testing. AEDC now has undertaken development of a master plan in an attempt to project requirements and to plan for ground test and computational facilities over the coming 20 to 30 years. This report was prepared in response to an AEDC request that the National Research Council (NRC) assemble a committee to prepare guidance for planning and modernizing AEDC facilities for the development and testing of future classes of aerospace systems as envisaged by the U.S. Air Force.

  11. International evaluation of current and future requirements for environmental engineering education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgenroth, E; Daigger, G T; Ledin, A; Keller, J

    2004-01-01

    The field of environmental engineering is developing as a result of changing environmental requirements. In response, environmental engineering education (E3) needs to ensure that it provides students with the necessary tools to address these challenges. In this paper the current status and future development of E3 is evaluated based on a questionnaire sent to universities and potential employers of E3 graduates. With increasing demands on environmental quality, the complexity of environmental engineering problems to be solved can be expected to increase. To find solutions environmental engineers will need to work in interdisciplinary teams. Based on the questionnaire there was a broad agreement that the best way to prepare students for these future challenges is to provide them with a fundamental education in basic sciences and related engineering fields. Many exciting developments in the environmental engineering profession will be located at the interface between engineering, science, and society. Aspects of all three areas need to be included in E3 and the student needs to be exposed to the tensions associated with linking the three.

  12. Energy Requirements by the Water Sector in the Southwestern US: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Averyt, K.; Yates, D. N.; Meldrum, J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate, energy, and water are fundamentally linked such that shifts in one sector have cascading impacts on the others. Consideration of the integrated system is necessary to fully understand the individual risk profile of each sector. In defining vulnerabilities and potential adaptations, the policy and regulatory environment must be considered alongside the biological and physical systems. Take, for example, the Southwestern U.S., a naturally arid system, where water availability is declining as a consequence of climate change and population growth. Adaptations by the water sector to convey, store, and develop new water sources (e.g. desalination, groundwater pumping, water-reuse) are strategies designed to enhance sustainability of the sector. But, the energy requirements embedded in these management techniques pose challenges to electric utilities. West wide, approximately 20% of total electricity generation goes toward supplying and heating water. If future investments made by the water sector to deal with changing supply and demand regimes continue to follow current trends, the dependence of water on energy availability will grow, meaning that the water supply will be increasingly reliant on the electricity system. Here, we use the example of long-term aridity and the recent drought in the Western US to illustrate the tradeoffs and challenges inherent at the nexus between energy and water. We present long-term trends in the energy intensity of water supplies in the Southwestern US, with a specific focus on groundwater systems. Projected energy requirements for proposed and future conveyance systems are discussed. The potential impacts of reduced flows on the Colorado River on the energy demands for groundwater pumping in the Lower Colorado River Basin are highlighted.

  13. Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Beijing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiran Han

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Land use and land cover (LULC models are essential for analyzing LULC change and predicting land use requirements and are valuable for guiding reasonable land use planning and management. However, each LULC model has its own advantages and constraints. In this paper, we explore the characteristics of LULC change and simulate future land use demand by combining a CLUE-S model with a Markov model to deal with some shortcomings of existing LULC models. Using Beijing as a case study, we describe the related driving factors from land-adaptive variables, regional spatial variables and socio-economic variables and then simulate future land use scenarios from 2010 to 2020, which include a development scenario (natural development and rapid development and protection scenarios (ecological and cultivated land protection. The results indicate good consistency between predicted results and actual land use situations according to a Kappa statistic. The conversion of cultivated land to urban built-up land will form the primary features of LULC change in the future. The prediction for land use demand shows the differences under different scenarios. At higher elevations, the geographical environment limits the expansion of urban built-up land, but the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land in mountainous areas will be more prevalent by 2020; Beijing, however, still faces the most pressure in terms of ecological and cultivated land protection.

  14. Change in land cover and land use in the north of Jalisco, Mexico: An analysis of the future in a context of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Arias

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper focused on the understanding of changes of land cover and land use processes over time, at a regional level. Changes in vegetation cover and land use have been recognized in many countries as a major cause of environmental degradation, therefore, are located in the center of environmental research and represent an important point in different areas as a mean to understand the mechanisms of this process of deterioration and a guide to support decisions on land use policy. The Atengo Huichol sub-basin has provided a set of goods and services to the communities of its surrounds, especially the Wixarikas (Huichol Community. Unfortunately, this relationship has resulted in a rapid deterioration of its natural resources. In this paper, the changes in coverage and land use in the watershed were analyzed, based on scenarios of 1976 and 2000, considering land use and vegetation cover in a Geographic Information System (GIS. In addition, the methodology, based on a model of climate change scenario to predict changes in land cover and land use in 2040 was developed. The results show that the landscape of the watershed is dominated by pine forest, oak forest and tropical deciduous forest. The dynamics of change is centered on the types of coverage "pine" and "oak” forest during the period 1976-2000, the former decreased at an annual rate of 0.20% and the second at 0.76% and in the estimated period of 2000-2040 this pattern is reversed, the pine forest decreased at an annual rate of 8.95% and oak forest to 2.11%. For both vegetation covers, the loss of vegetation in the second period analyzed was greater. This pattern of change is consistent with estimates previously reported in the context of climate change.

  15. Farming in a fragile future : economics of land use with applications in the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schipper, R.A.

    1996-01-01


    The present study contributes to the search for a methodology for land use analysis, aiming at a land use that provides sufficient (and rising) incomes to the agricultural population and at the same time maintains the productive capacity of land. The contribution focuses in particular on

  16. Strengthening governance for intertidal ecosystems requires a consistent definition of boundaries between land and sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rog, Stefanie M; Cook, Carly N

    2017-07-15

    The protection of intertidal ecosystems is complex because they straddle both marine and terrestrial realms. This leads to inconsistent characterisation as marine and/or terrestrial systems, or neither. Vegetated intertidal ecosystems are especially complex to classify because they can have an unclear border with terrestrial vegetation, causing confusion around taxonomy (e.g., mangrove-like plants). This confusion and inconsistency in classification can impact these systems through poor governance and incomplete protection. Using Australian mangrove ecosystems as a case study, we explore the complexity of how land and sea boundaries are defined among jurisdictions and different types of legislation, and how these correspond to ecosystem boundaries. We demonstrate that capturing vegetated intertidal ecosystems under native vegetation laws and prioritizing the mitigation of threats with a terrestrial origin offers the greatest protection to these systems. We also show the impact of inconsistent boundaries on the inclusion of intertidal ecosystems within protected areas. The evidence presented here highlights problems within the Australian context, but most of these issues are also challenges for the management of intertidal ecosystems around the world. Our study demonstrates the urgent need for a global review of legislation governing the boundaries of land and sea to determine whether the suggestions we offer may provide global solutions to ensuring these critical systems do not fall through the cracks in ecosystem protection and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Carbon footprint and land requirement for dairy herd rations: impacts of feed production practices and regional climate variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriksson, M; Cederberg, C; Swensson, C

    2014-08-01

    Feed production is a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from dairy production and demands large arable and pasture acreage. This study analysed how regional conditions influence GHG emissions of dairy feed rations in a life cycle perspective, that is the carbon footprint (CF) and the land area required. Factors assessed included regional climate variations, grass/clover silage nutrient quality, feedstuff availability, crop yield and feed losses. Using the Nordic feed evaluation model NorFor, rations were optimised for different phases of lactation, dry and growing periods for older cows, first calvers and heifers by regional feed advisors and combined to annual herd rations. Feed production data at farm level were based on national statistics and studies. CF estimates followed standards for life cycle assessment and used emissions factors provided by IPCC. The functional unit was 'feed consumption to produce 1 kg energy corrected milk (ECM) from a cow with annual milk yield of 9 900 kg ECM including replacement animals and feed losses'. Feed ration CF varied from 417 to 531 g CO2 e/kg ECM. Grass/clover silage contributed more than 50% of total GHG emissions. Use of higher quality silage increased ration CF by up to 5% as a result of an additional cut and increased rates of synthetic N-fertiliser. Domestically produced horse bean (Vicia faba), by-products from the sugar industry and maize silage were included in the rations with the lowest CF, but horse bean significantly increased ration land requirement. Rations required between 1.4 to 2 m2 cropland and 0.1 to 0.2 m2/kg semi-natural grassland per kg ECM and year. Higher yield levels reduced ration total CF. Inclusion of GHG emissions from land use change associated with Brazilian soya feed significantly increased ration CF. Ration CF and land use depended on ration composition, which was highly influenced by the regional availability and production of feedstuffs. The impact of individual

  18. Requirements and solutions for future pellet technology; Krav och loesningar foer framtidens pelletsteknik

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulrud, Susanne; Roennbaeck, Marie; Ryde, Daniel; Laitila, Thomas

    2010-07-01

    Requirements and solutions for future pellet burning technologies Since 2006, sales of pellet burning technologies to the Swedish residential market have fallen. The main reasons for this decrease are: many of the economically favorable easy conversions from oil to pellets have been made; competition from heat pumps; warm winters; a stable electricity price; and the current structure of heating in residential buildings, where electric heating dominates. To change this falling trend pellets need to become more attractive to consumers. This project aimed to analyze the requirements for the next generation of pellets systems and to develop potential solutions, in collaboration with the pellets industry. More specifically, the study looked at consumers' attitudes toward heating choices and different heating through a survey to 2000 house owners across Sweden. The project included a market analysis of Swedish and international technologies and examines the conditions for Swedish pellet burning technology in different markets. In addition, new solutions and developments for Swedish pellets burning technology are described

  19. Future mission opportunities and requirements for advanced space photovoltaic energy conversion technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flood, Dennis J.

    1990-01-01

    The variety of potential future missions under consideration by NASA will impose a broad range of requirements on space solar arrays, and mandates the development of new solar cells which can offer a wide range of capabilities to mission planners. Major advances in performance have recently been achieved at several laboratories in a variety of solar cell types. Many of those recent advances are reviewed, the areas are examined where possible improvements are yet to be made, and the requirements are discussed that must be met by advanced solar cell if they are to be used in space. The solar cells of interest include single and multiple junction cells which are fabricated from single crystal, polycrystalline and amorphous materials. Single crystal cells on foreign substrates, thin film single crystal cells on superstrates, and multiple junction cells which are either mechanically stacked, monolithically grown, or hybrid structures incorporating both techniques are discussed. Advanced concentrator array technology for space applications is described, and the status of thin film, flexible solar array blanket technology is reported.

  20. Review of the ASDEX upgrade data acquisition environment - present operation and future requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Behler, K.; Blank, H.; Buhler, A.; Drube, R.; Friedrich, H.; Foerster, K.; Hallatschek, K.; Heimann, P.; Hertweck, F.; Maier, J.; Heimann, R.; Hertweck, F.; Maier, J.; Merkel, R.; Pacco-Duechs, M.-G.; Raupp, G.; Reuter, H.; Schneider-Maxon, U.; Tisma, R.; Zilker, M.

    1999-01-01

    The data acquisition environment of the ASDEX upgrade fusion experiment was designed in the late 1980s to handle a predicted quantity of 8 Mbytes fo data per discharge. After 7 years of operation a review of the whole data acquisition and analysis environment shows what remains of the original design ideas. Comparing the original 15 diagnostics with the present set of 250 diagnostic datasets generated per shot shows how the system has grown. Although now a vast accumulation of functional parts, the system still works in a stable manner and is maintainable. The underlying concepts affirming these qualities are modularity and compatibility. Modularity ensures that most parts of the system can be modified without affecting others. Standards for data structures and interfaces between components and methods are the prerequisites which make modularity work. The experience of the last few years shows that, besides the standards achieved, new, mainly real-time, features are needed: real-time event recognition allowing reaction to complex changing conditions; real-time wavelet analysis allowing adapted sampling rates; real-time data exchange between diagnostics and control; real-time networks allowing flexible computer coupling to permit interplay between different components; object-oriented programming concepts and databases are required for readily adaptable software modules. A final assessment of our present data processing situation and future requirements shows that modern information technology methods have to be applied more intensively to provide the most flexible means to improve the interaction of all components on a large fusion device. (orig.)

  1. A Human Resource Development Action Plan for the Radiography Program Sponsored by Lincoln Land/St. John's Based on a View of the Radiographer of the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowd, Steven B.

    The purpose of a practicum was to develop an effective and valid human resource development plan based on a view of the practitioner of the future. The targeted program was one in radiography (radiologic technology) co-sponsored by Lincoln Land Community College and St. John's Hospital (Illinois). A review of the literature was used to establish a…

  2. Modeling vulnerability of groundwater to pollution under future scenarios of climate change and biofuels-related land use change: a case study in North Dakota, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ruopu; Merchant, James W

    2013-03-01

    Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality. Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use conditions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with high vulnerability will expand northward and/or northwestward in Eastern North Dakota under different scenarios. GIS-based models that account for future changes in climate and land use can help decision-makers identify potential future threats to groundwater quality and take early steps to protect this critical resource. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Technical basis for high-level waste repository land control requirements for Palo Duro Basin, Paradox Basin, and Richton Dome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, C.P.; Raines, G.E.

    1987-02-01

    Three sites, the Palo Duro Basin in Texas, the Paradox Basin in Utah, and the Richton Dome in Mississippi, are being investigated by the US Department of Energy for high-level radioactive-waste disposal in mined, deep geologic repositories in salt. This report delineates the use of regulatory, engineering, and performance assessment information to establish the technical basis for controlled area requirements. Based on the size of the controlled area determined, plus that of the geologic repository operations area, recommendations of possible land control or ownership area requirements for each locale are provided. On a technical basis, the following minimum land control or ownership requirements are recommended, assuming repository operations area of 2240 ac (907 ha), or 3.5 mi 2 (9.1 km 2 ): Palo Duro Basin - 4060 ac (1643 ha), or 6.3 mi 2 (16.4 km 2 ); Paradox Basin - 4060 ac (1643 ha), or 6.3 mi 2 (16.4 km 2 ); and Richton Dome - 5000 ac (2024 ha), or 7.8 mi 2 (20.2 km 2 ). Of the factors used to determine the technically based recommendations, one was found to dominate each locale. For the Palo Duro and Paradox Basins, the dominant factor was the need to limit potential radionuclide release by ground-water flow to the accessible environment. For the Richton Dome, the dominant factor was the need to limit the potential effects of solution mining on dome and repository integrity

  4. Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Their Impacts on Future Runoff in the Luanhe River Basin in North China Using Markov and SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, W.; Long, D.

    2017-12-01

    Both land use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change exert significant impacts on runoff, which needs to be thoroughly examined in the context of urbanization, population growth, and climate change. The majority of studies focus on the impacts of either LUCC or climate on runoff in the upper reaches of the Panjiakou Reservoir in the Luanhe River basin, North China. In this study, first, two land use change matrices for periods 1970‒1980 and 1980‒2000 were constructed based on the theory of the Markov Chain which were used to predict the land use scenario of the basin in year 2020. Second, a distributed hydrological model, Soil Water Assessment Tools (SWAT), was set up and driven mainly by the China Gauge-based Daily Precipitation Analysis (CGDPA) product and outputs from three general circulation models (GCMs) of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISI-MIP). Third, under the land use scenario in 2000, streamflow at the Chengde gauging station for the period 1998‒2014 was simulated with the CGDPA as input, and streamflow for the period 2015‒2025 under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) was simulated using the outputs from GCMs and compared under the land use scenarios in 2000 and 2020. Results show that during 2015‒2025, the ensemble average precipitation in summer (i.e., from June to August) may increase up to 20% but decrease by -16% in fall (i.e., from September to November). The streamflow may increase in all the seasons, particularly in spring (i.e., from March to May) and summer reaching 150% and 142%, respectively. Furthermore, the streamflow may increase even more when the land use scenario for the period 1998‒2025 remains the same as that in 2000. The minimum (61mm) and maximum (77mm) mean annual runoff depth occur under the RCP4.5 and RCP6 scenarios, respectively, compared with the mean annual observed streamflow of 33 mm from 1998 to 2014. Finally, we analyzed the correlation among the main land use types

  5. Future export of particulate and dissolved organic carbon from land to coastal zones of the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strååt, Kim Dahlgren; Mörth, Carl-Magnus; Undeman, Emma

    2018-01-01

    The Baltic Sea is a semi-enclosed brackish sea in Northern Europe with a drainage basin four times larger than the sea itself. Riverine organic carbon (Particulate Organic Carbon, POC and Dissolved Organic Carbon, DOC) dominates carbon input to the Baltic Sea and influences both land-to-sea transport of nutrients and contaminants, and hence the functioning of the coastal ecosystem. The potential impact of future climate change on loads of POC and DOC in the Baltic Sea drainage basin (BSDB) was assessed using a hydrological-biogeochemical model (CSIM). The changes in annual and seasonal concentrations and loads of both POC and DOC by the end of this century were predicted using three climate change scenarios and compared to the current state. In all scenarios, overall increasing DOC loads, but unchanged POC loads, were projected in the north. In the southern part of the BSDB, predicted DOC loads were not significantly changing over time, although POC loads decreased in all scenarios. The magnitude and significance of the trends varied with scenario but the sign (+ or -) of the projected trends for the entire simulation period never conflicted. Results were discussed in detail for the "middle" CO2 emission scenario (business as usual, a1b). On an annual and entire drainage basin scale, the total POC load was projected to decrease by ca 7% under this scenario, mainly due to reduced riverine primary production in the southern parts of the BSDB. The average total DOC load was not predicted to change significantly between years 2010 and 2100 due to counteracting decreasing and increasing trends of DOC loads to the six major sub-basins in the Baltic Sea. However, predicted seasonal total loads of POC and DOC increased significantly by ca 46% and 30% in winter and decreased by 8% and 21% in summer over time, respectively. For POC the change in winter loads was a consequence of increasing soil erosion and a shift in duration of snowfall and onset of the spring flood

  6. Transformation of Agricultural Land for Urbanisation, Infrastructural Development and Question of Future Food Security: Cases from Parts of Hugli District, West Bengal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giyasuddin Siddique

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Developing countries of the world encounter urbanisation and infrastructural development in or around the fertile tracts and the absence of any landuse plan for desired land use change has led to conversion of farmlands, which is detrimental to future food security and environmental quality. Hugli district is traditionally well known as one of the most prosperous agricultural regions of West Bengal but the district is experiencing rapid urban extension and infrastructural development towards productive agricultural land since 1991. This has caused decline in the amount of agricultural production which may be treated as an indicator of increasing threat to the long run sustainable livelihood security of the people of the whole of West Bengal. This article critically explores the transformation of agricultural (farm land because of growing rate of urbanisation and infrastructural development, which in turn poses the question of threat to food (in security. Although, this is a growing problem across the universe, this article probes the future food security questions of Hugli district, West Bengal by examining the impact of the highly intertwined indicators of urbanisation and infrastructural development on agricultural (farm land use and its effect on food security. Regression analysis, Spearman’s Ranking Correlation Coefficient, Remote Sensing technologies, Markov Chain Model, Projection of future population growth and yield rate are employed to understand the depth of the problem. The result not only shows a direct negative correlation between urban extension and agricultural areal contraction but also the supervised classification of satellite imageries shows that there is rapid change of rural land use from 1996-2016. There is no match between future population growth and future yield rate of crops and the Markov Chain Model further predicts that the cropland will decrease from 62.77% to 42.90% and the built up area will increase from 31

  7. Evaluating the effect of a changing land-use and climate on the historical and future water budget of the Ipswich River basin, Massachusetts, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claessens, L.; Hopkinson, C.; Rastetter, E.; Vallino, J.; Canfield, S.; Pontius, R. G.

    2001-05-01

    We evaluated the effect of land-use change and climate change on the water budget of the Ipswich River basin in northeastern Massachusetts. In this analysis we used both historical data on land-use and climate, as well as modeled predictions of future changes in land-use and climate. Our goal was to examine the importance of addressing both changes when evaluating human impacts on a river basin. The Ipswich River watershed has undergone major changes in land-use during the 20th century. Agricultural abandonment and forest re-growth dominated the first part of the century, followed by rapid urban expansion since the 1950s. The changing landscape and associated socio-economic activities, together with a changing climate, are having a major impact on the watershed hydrology. An increase in population has led to an increase in net diversions, and the associated summer low-flow conditions led in 1997 to the Ipswich Rivers' designation as one of the 10 most threatened rivers in the US. Precipitation has increased at a rate of 3 mm/year, while streamflow has remained relatively constant, even after correcting for increased net diversions. The long-term water budget indicates an increase in evapotranspiration, replicated by evapotranspiration estimates calculated from meteorological data, using the complementary relationship areal evapotranspiration (CRAE) model. To assess the effect of a changing landscape and a changing climate on regional evapotranspiration, we applied a simple multi-bucket water balance model, calculating evapotranspiration using a Penman-Monteith based resistance approach. In addition we developed a hybrid evapotranspiration model, combining the Penman-Monteith resistance approach with the complementary relationship approach. Results show that during the period 1949-1998, the effect of a changing climate on evapotranspiration is stronger than the effect of a changing land-use. Finally, scenarios of future water budgets are constructed. Future land

  8. Estimation of the energy storage requirement of a future 100% renewable energy system in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esteban, Miguel; Zhang, Qi; Utama, Agya

    2012-01-01

    Renewable energy systems are often criticized because of their intermittency and need for substantial amount of backup in terms of other energy sources or storage. The present paper proposes a method to estimate the required amount of storage backup for a mostly solar and wind system that uses also biomass and hydroenergy as minor components of the electricity mix. An hourly simulation was carried out to determine the amount of electricity that could be produced based on the meteorological conditions of year 2001 in Japan, and this was compared with the maximum electricity demands imposed in the system for each month of the year. The system thus proposed has 100% chance of meeting around 40% of the electricity demand between 11:00 and 18:00, and the optimum scenario obtained (a 2:1 mix of solar to wind energy) required around 40 TW of storage to balance the extra electricity demand that occurs during the summer in Japan. It appears unlikely that the batteries in EV in vehicles will be able to meet this storage requirement in the future, though the system is able to adequately meet the electricity demand during the majority of the year, and hence showcases the viability of renewable energy. - Highlights: ► A PV-wind-hydro-biomass energy system in Japan could supply electricity for the whole country by 2100. ► Due to smoothening the system has an almost 100% chance of meeting around 40% of the electricity demand between 11:00 and 18:00. ► The system proposed is generally very stable during the winter, spring and autumn periods in Japan, with very small amounts of battery storage being able to successfully meet the electricity demand during these periods. ► It appears unlikely that the batteries in EV will be able to provide enough storage (as the total expected storage by 2100 is likely to be 20 times smaller than the required to balance the system during the summer months.

  9. Modern requirements to professional training of future teacher of physical culture in the conditions of informatization of teaching.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naumenko O.I.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Modern requirements to professional training of future teacher of physical culture in the conditions of informatization of teaching are examined. It is exposed, that in the conditions of introduction of the modern newest information technologies in teaching new requirements are put to training of future teacher of physical culture. Abilities which must characterize the modern teacher of physical culture are indicated. It is marked that application of information technologies in industry of physical education optimizes an educational process. However there are contradictions between growth of their role in studies and direct application of these technologies in the field of knowledges. It is certain that a future specialist must adhere to the certain requirements of information technologies. It is marked that to the basic measures on implementation of the program providing of high-quality level of preparation of future teachers belongs to professional activity.

  10. 17 CFR 1.14 - Risk assessment recordkeeping requirements for futures commission merchants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... risk, and other risks created by the futures commission merchant's proprietary and noncustomer clearing... Holding Company Act of 1956; or (3) In the case of a Material Affiliated Person that is subject to the... to any futures commission merchant which holds funds or property of or for futures customers of less...

  11. Variations in the susceptibility to landslides, as a consequence of land cover changes: A look to the past, and another towards the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisano, L; Zumpano, V; Malek, Ž; Rosskopf, C M; Parise, M

    2017-12-01

    Land cover is one of the most important conditioning factors in landslide susceptibility analysis. Usually it is considered as a static factor, but it has proven to be dynamic, with changes occurring even in few decades. In this work the influence of land cover changes on landslide susceptibility are analyzed for the past and for future scenarios. For the application, an area representative of the hilly-low mountain sectors of the Italian Southern Apennines was chosen (Rivo basin, in Molise Region). With this purpose landslide inventories and land cover maps were produced for the years 1954, 1981 and 2007. Two alternative future scenarios were created for 2050, one which follows the past trend (2050-trend), and another one more extreme, foreseeing a decrease of forested and cultivated areas (2050-alternative). The landslide susceptibility analysis was performed using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation method for different time steps, investigating changes to susceptibility over time. The results show that environmental dynamics, such as land cover change, affect slope stability in time. In fact there is a decrease of susceptibility in the past and in the future 2050-trend scenario. This is due to the increase of forest or cultivated areas, that is probably determined by a better land management, water and soil control respect to other land cover types such as shrubland, pasture or bareland. Conversely the results revealed by the alternative scenario (2050-alternative), show how the decrease in forest and cultivated areas leads to an increase in landslide susceptibility. This can be related to the assumed worst climatic condition leading to a minor agricultural activity and lower extension of forested areas, possibly associated also to the effects of forest fires. The results suggest that conscious landscape management might contribute to determine a significant reduction in landslide susceptibility. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. FUTURES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  13. The Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2): Science Requirements, Concept, and Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markus, Thorsten; Neumann, Tom; Martino, Anthony; Abdalati, Waleed; Brunt, Kelly; Csatho, Beata; Farrell, Sinead; Fricker, Helen; Gardner, Alex; Harding, David; hide

    2017-01-01

    The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission used laser altimetry measurements to determine changes in elevations of glaciers and ice sheets, as well as sea ice thickness distribution. These measurements have provided important information on the response of the cryosphere (Earths frozen surfaces) to changes in atmosphere and ocean condition. ICESat operated from 2003-2009 and provided repeat altimetry measurements not only to the cryosphere scientific community but also to the ocean, terrestrial and atmospheric scientific communities. The conclusive assessment of significant ongoing rapid changes in the Earths ice cover, in part supported by ICESat observations, has strengthened the need for sustained, high accuracy, repeat observations similar to what was provided by the ICESat mission. Following recommendations from the National Research Council for an ICESat follow-on mission, the ICESat-2 mission is now under development for planned launch in 2018. The primary scientific aims of the ICESat-2 mission are to continue measurements of sea ice freeboard and ice sheet elevation to determine their changes at scales from outlet glaciers to the entire ice sheet, and from 10s of meters to the entire polar oceans for sea ice freeboard. ICESat carried a single beam profiling laser altimeter that produced approximately 70 m diameter footprints on the surface of the Earth at approximately 150 m along-track intervals. In contrast, ICESat-2 will operate with three pairs of beams, each pair separated by about 3 km across-track with a pair spacing of 90 m. Each of the beams will have a nominal 17 m diameter footprint with an along-track sampling interval of 0.7 m. The differences in the ICESat-2 measurement concept are a result of overcoming some limitations associated with the approach used in the ICESat mission. The beam pair configuration of ICESat-2 allows for the determination of local cross-track slope, a significant factor in measuring elevation change

  14. The implications of user requirements for the functionality and content of a future EGDI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Mikael; Tulstrup, Jørgen

    2014-05-01

    The FP7 co-funded EGDI-Scope project is conducting analyses, which forms the basis for the development of an implementation plan for a future European Geological Data Infrastructure (EGDI) the aim of which will be to serve pan-European geological information from the European geological survey organisations. An important aspect of the project has been to consult stakeholders in order to deduce requirements, which is a fundamental prerequisite for making recommendations on the content and technical design of the system. It is indisputable that EGDI will have to build on international standards such as OGC and CGI and take into account legislative requirements from e.g. the INSPIRE directive. This will support the tasks of data providers and facilitate integration with other e-Infrastructures, but will not in itself lever the end user experiences. In order to make the future EGDI a successful online contributor of geological information, EGDI-Scope has therefore been looking very concretely into the needs and expectations of various user groups Most people have clear expectations anno 2014. They want to be able to search the web for information, and once found, they expect fast-performing, intuitive web applications with buttons to click, maps to navigate and reliable content to fulfil their immediate needs. In order for the EGDI to handle such requirements, a number of use cases for various thematic areas have been assessed. The use cases reveal (for example) that information about the geological composition of the ground is critical for the assessment of things like ecosystems or ground water quality. But where ecosystem assessment relies on the composition of the surface layers, groundwater geochemistry rely on the lithology of subsurface layers. For both scenarios, harmonised, pan-European geological maps are very important, but the harmonisation should not only relate to lithological classes, but also to the depth representation. The use cases also make clear

  15. Impact of idealized future stratospheric aerosol injection on the large-scale ocean and land carbon cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tjiputra, J. F.; Grini, A.; Lee, H.

    2016-01-01

    Using an Earth system model, we simulate stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on top of the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 future scenario. Our idealized method prescribes aerosol concentration, linearly increasing from 2020 to 2100, and thereafter remaining constant until 2200. In the aggressive scenario, the model projects a cooling trend toward 2100 despite warming that persists in the high latitudes. Following SAI termination in 2100, a rapid global warming of 0.35 K yr-1 is simulated in the subsequent 10 years, and the global mean temperature returns to levels close to the reference state, though roughly 0.5 K cooler. In contrast to earlier findings, we show a weak response in the terrestrial carbon sink during SAI implementation in the 21st century, which we attribute to nitrogen limitation. The SAI increases the land carbon uptake in the temperate forest-, grassland-, and shrub-dominated regions. The resultant lower temperatures lead to a reduction in the heterotrophic respiration rate and increase soil carbon retention. Changes in precipitation patterns are key drivers for variability in vegetation carbon. Upon SAI termination, the level of vegetation carbon storage returns to the reference case, whereas the soil carbon remains high. The ocean absorbs nearly 10% more carbon in the geoengineered simulation than in the reference simulation, leading to a ˜15 ppm lower atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2100. The largest enhancement in uptake occurs in the North Atlantic. In both hemispheres' polar regions, SAI delays the sea ice melting and, consequently, export production remains low. In the deep water of North Atlantic, SAI-induced circulation changes accelerate the ocean acidification rate and broaden the affected area.

  16. Large-scale computation at PSI scientific achievements and future requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adelmann, A.; Markushin, V.

    2008-11-01

    ' (SNSP-HPCN) is discussing this complex. Scientific results which are made possible by PSI's engagement at CSCS (named Horizon) are summarised and PSI's future high-performance computing requirements are evaluated. The data collected shows the current situation and a 5 year extrapolation of the users' needs with respect to HPC resources is made. In consequence this report can serve as a basis for future strategic decisions with respect to a non-existing HPC road-map for PSI. PSI's institutional HPC area started hardware-wise approximately in 1999 with the assembly of a 32-processor LINUX cluster called Merlin. Merlin was upgraded several times, lastly in 2007. The Merlin cluster at PSI is used for small scale parallel jobs, and is the only general purpose computing system at PSI. Several dedicated small scale clusters followed the Merlin scheme. Many of the clusters are used to analyse data from experiments at PSI or CERN, because dedicated clusters are most efficient. The intellectual and financial involvement of the procurement (including a machine update in 2007) results in a PSI share of 25 % of the available computing resources at CSCS. The (over) usage of available computing resources by PSI scientists is demonstrated. We actually get more computing cycles than we have paid for. The reason is the fair share policy that is implemented on the Horizon machine. This policy allows us to get cycles, with a low priority, even when our bi-monthly share is used. Five important observations can be drawn from the analysis of the scientific output and the survey of future requirements of main PSI HPC users: (1) High Performance Computing is a main pillar in many important PSI research areas; (2) there is a lack in the order of 10 times the current computing resources (measured in available core-hours per year); (3) there is a trend to use in the order of 600 processors per average production run; (4) the disk and tape storage growth is dramatic; (5) small HPC clusters located

  17. Large-scale computation at PSI scientific achievements and future requirements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adelmann, A.; Markushin, V

    2008-11-15

    and Networking' (SNSP-HPCN) is discussing this complex. Scientific results which are made possible by PSI's engagement at CSCS (named Horizon) are summarised and PSI's future high-performance computing requirements are evaluated. The data collected shows the current situation and a 5 year extrapolation of the users' needs with respect to HPC resources is made. In consequence this report can serve as a basis for future strategic decisions with respect to a non-existing HPC road-map for PSI. PSI's institutional HPC area started hardware-wise approximately in 1999 with the assembly of a 32-processor LINUX cluster called Merlin. Merlin was upgraded several times, lastly in 2007. The Merlin cluster at PSI is used for small scale parallel jobs, and is the only general purpose computing system at PSI. Several dedicated small scale clusters followed the Merlin scheme. Many of the clusters are used to analyse data from experiments at PSI or CERN, because dedicated clusters are most efficient. The intellectual and financial involvement of the procurement (including a machine update in 2007) results in a PSI share of 25 % of the available computing resources at CSCS. The (over) usage of available computing resources by PSI scientists is demonstrated. We actually get more computing cycles than we have paid for. The reason is the fair share policy that is implemented on the Horizon machine. This policy allows us to get cycles, with a low priority, even when our bi-monthly share is used. Five important observations can be drawn from the analysis of the scientific output and the survey of future requirements of main PSI HPC users: (1) High Performance Computing is a main pillar in many important PSI research areas; (2) there is a lack in the order of 10 times the current computing resources (measured in available core-hours per year); (3) there is a trend to use in the order of 600 processors per average production run; (4) the disk and tape storage growth

  18. Analysis of Balancing Requirements in Future Sustainable and Reliable Power Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frunt, J.

    2011-01-01

    This thesis elaborates on the rules for power balancing, provides a method for quantifying balancing requirements and examines the effect of future changes on balancing. Chapter 2 elaborates on system balancing and the different actors and entities in the electricity delivery system. The necessity and implementation of power balancing are explained. Also different subsequent markets (i.e., day-ahead markets, intraday markets and imbalance settlement systems) and options to trade electricity are discussed. As the research focusses mainly on the Netherlands, properties of the Dutch imbalance settlement system are analyzed. Based on this framework an in-depth analysis of imbalances and calls for balancing capacity with the corresponding prices is given. This shows the incentives to minimize the amount of imbalance in the system and to participate in the imbalance settlement system. Chapter 3 elaborates on the level of aggregation that the entities, involved in the imbalance settlement system, in electricity markets can have. Based on current market rules, incentives to either grow or shrink and by aggregating more or less entities are discussed. The level of aggregation will directly influence the functioning of the imbalance settlement system. It is shown that larger aggregations benefit more from the canceling out of imbalances. The imbalances of the Netherlands and Belgium have been aggregated to illustrate the possible benefits of aggregating multiple national imbalance settlement systems. The increased penetration of renewable generation strongly influences the planning and operation of the power system. As many renewable energy generators have a fluctuating power output, several methods are discussed in chapter 4 that can be used to classify and quantify the balancing requirements to counteract these fluctuations. Chapter 4 discusses the multiple existing classes of balancing capacity and the corresponding methods to quantify their needs. Due to the

  19. Glomed-Land: a research project to study the effect of global change in contrasted mediterranean landscapes and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Sinoga, José D.; Hueso-González, Paloma; León-Gross, Teodoro; Molina, Julián; Remond, Ricardo; Martínez-Murillo, Juan F.

    2017-04-01

    The Global Change is referred to the occurrence of great environmental changes associated to climatic fluctuations and human activity as wel (Vitousek et al., 1997; Steffen et al., 2004; Dearing et al., 2006). García-Ruiz et al. (2015) indicated that the relief varies very slowly in time while the changes in vegetation, overland flow generation and erosion occurred very rapidly and conditioned by their interactions and the climate variability as well. The GLOMED-LAND Project has its bases and scientific justification on the combination of the experience of the members of the research team, from one side, in the analysis of the dynamics and eco-geomorphological and climatic processes in Mediterranean environments of southern Spain, in the context of current Global change, and from another, in the study, development and application of new tools for simulation and modelling of future scenarios, and finally, in the analysis of the impact that society exercises the broadcast media related to the problem derived from the awareness and adaptation to Global change. Climate change (CC), directly affects the elements that compose the landscape. Both in the analysis of future climate scenarios raised by the IPCC (2013), such as the regionalisation carried out by AEMET, the Mediterranean region and, especially, the South of Spain, - with its defined longitudinal pluviometric gradient - configured as one of the areas of greatest uncertainty, reflected in a higher concentration of temporal rainfall, and even a reduction in the rainfall. Faced with this situation, the CC can modify the current landscape setting, with all the environmental impacts that this would entail for the terrestrial ecosystems and the systemic services rendered to the society. The combination of different work scales allows the analysis of the dynamics of the landscape and the consequence of its modifications on, hydro-geomorphological processes, closely related to degradation processes that can affect the

  20. Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO2 emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W; Ramankutty, Navin; Baldos, Uris Lantz C

    2014-09-23

    There has been a resurgence of interest in the impacts of agricultural productivity on land use and the environment. At the center of this debate is the assertion that agricultural innovation is land sparing. However, numerous case studies and global empirical studies have found little evidence of higher yields being accompanied by reduced area. We find that these studies overlook two crucial factors: estimation of a true counterfactual scenario and a tendency to adopt a regional, rather than a global, perspective. This paper introduces a general framework for analyzing the impacts of regional and global innovation on long run crop output, prices, land rents, land use, and associated CO2 emissions. In so doing, it facilitates a reconciliation of the apparently conflicting views of the impacts of agricultural productivity growth on global land use and environmental quality. Our historical analysis demonstrates that the Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East was unambiguously land and emissions sparing, compared with a counterfactual world without these innovations. In contrast, we find that the environmental impacts of a prospective African Green Revolution are potentially ambiguous. We trace these divergent outcomes to relative differences between the innovating region and the rest of the world in yields, emissions efficiencies, cropland supply response, and intensification potential. Globalization of agriculture raises the potential for adverse environmental consequences. However, if sustained for several decades, an African Green Revolution will eventually become land sparing.

  1. Requirements on future energy supply. Analysis on the demand of future power plant capacity and strategy for a sustainable power utilization in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-08-01

    This strategy paper was drawn up with a view to maximum ecological compatibility of pwer plant modernization and sustainable power generation and use. The first part of the paper analyzes the power plants to be decommissioned on a medium-term basis and - against the background of several different scenarios for future power demand - an estimate of power plant capacities required by 2020. The second part describes the goals and concrete requirements of sustainable energy use. In the final part, the available instruments are presented, and those instruments are recommended that will be best suited for making power demand and supply efficient, sustainable and environment-friend.y [de

  2. Comparative Effects of Ethanol (E85), Gasoline, and Wind-Powered Electric Vehicles on Cancer, Mortality, Climate-Relevant Emissions, and Land requirements in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, M. Z.

    2007-12-01

    In this study, a nested global-through-urban air pollution/weather forecast model is combined with high- resolution future emission inventories, population data, and health effects data to examine the effect of converting from gasoline to a high-ethanol blend (E85) on cancer, mortality, and hospitalization in the U.S. as a whole and Los Angeles in particular. The effects of both are then compared with those from converting to wind-powered battery-electric vehicles (WBEVs). Under the base-case emission scenario, which accounted for projected improvements in gasoline and E85 vehicle emission controls, complete conversion to E85, which is unlikely due to land-use constraints, was found to increase ozone-related mortality, hospitalization, and asthma by about 9 percent in Los Angeles and 4 percent in the U.S. as a whole relative to 100 percent gasoline. Ozone increases in Los Angeles and the northeast U.S. were partially offset by decreases in the southeast. E85 also increased PAN in the U.S. but was estimated to cause little change in cancer risk relative to gasoline. Both gasoline and ethanol are anticipated to cause at least 10,000-20,000 premature deaths in the U.S. in 2020, which would be eliminated upon conversion to WBEVs. WBEVs require 30 times less land area than corn ethanol and 20 times less land area than cellulosic ethanol for powering the same vehicle fleet. About 70,000-120,000 5 MW wind turbines in average wind speeds exceeding 8 m/s could power all U.S. onroad vehicles, eliminating up to 26 percent of U.S. carbon, compared with a best-case carbon reduction of 0.2 percent for corn-ethanol and 4 percent for cellulosic ethanol, based on recent lifecycle emission data and landuse constraints. In sum, both gasoline and E85 pose public health risks, with E85 causing equal or possibly more damage. The conversion to battery-electric vehicles or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles powered by wind or another clean renewable, is a significantly superior solution to

  3. 50 CFR 29.21-7 - What payment do we require for use and occupancy of national wildlife refuge lands?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... occupancy of national wildlife refuge lands? 29.21-7 Section 29.21-7 Wildlife and Fisheries UNITED STATES FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR (CONTINUED) THE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE SYSTEM... occupancy of national wildlife refuge lands? (a) Payment for use and occupancy of lands under the...

  4. Impacts of Climate Change on Water Requirements of Dry Season Boro Rice: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharjee, T. K.; Ludwig, F.; Halsema, G. V.; Hellegers, P.; Supit, I.

    2017-12-01

    The North-West part of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, because of dry season water shortage and high water demand for rice cultivation. A study was carried out to understand the impacts of recent climate change (1980-2013) and future consequences (for 2050s and 2080s) on water requirements of Boro rice. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), potential crop water requirement (∑ETC), effective rainfall (ER), potential irrigation requirement for crop evapotranspiration (∑ETC-ER) and net irrigation requirement of Boro rice were estimated in CropWat using observed daily climate data for recent trends and statistically downscaled and bias corrected GCM outputs (five models and two RCPs) for future scenarios. ETo showed a significant decreasing recent trends due to increasing relative humidity and decreasing wind speed and sun shine hours instead of an increase in temperature. However, the strong future increase in temperature will lead to an insignificant increase in ETo. ∑ETC showed a decreasing recent trend and will further decrease in the future because of shortened duration of Boro growth stages as crop's phenological response to increased temperature. The variations in trends of ∑ETC-ER found among different districts, are mainly linked to the variations in trends of changes in effective rainfall. During last three decades, the net irrigation requirement has decreased by 11% at an average rate of -4.4 mm/year, instead of a decreasing effective rainfall, mainly because of high rate of decrease of crop evapotranspiration (-5.9 mm/year). In future, although daily water requirement will increase, the total net irrigation requirement of Boro rice will decrease by 1.6% in 2050s and 7.4% in 2080s for RCP 8.5 scenario on an average for five models and four districts compared to the base period (1980-2013). High variations in projected changes in rainfall bring high uncertainty for future water requirements estimation. Therefore, a

  5. Climate Change and Future U.S. Electricity Infrastructure: the Nexus between Water Availability, Land Suitability, and Low-Carbon Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, J.; Halter, T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Jensen, E.; Liu, L.; Olson, J.; Patel, P.; Vernon, C. R.; Voisin, N.; Zuljevic, N.

    2014-12-01

    Integrated assessment models project the future electricity generation mix under different policy, technology, and socioeconomic scenarios, but they do not directly address site-specific factors such as interconnection costs, population density, land use restrictions, air quality, NIMBY concerns, or water availability that might affect the feasibility of achieving the technology mix. Moreover, since these factors can change over time due to climate, policy, socioeconomics, and so on, it is important to examine the dynamic feasibility of integrated assessment scenarios "on the ground." This paper explores insights from coupling an integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA) with a geospatial power plant siting model (the Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility model, CERF) within a larger multi-model framework that includes regional climate, hydrologic, and water management modeling. GCAM-USA is a dynamic-recursive market equilibrium model simulating the impact of carbon policies on global and national markets for energy commodities and other goods; one of its outputs is the electricity generation mix and expansion at the state-level. It also simulates water demands from all sectors that are downscaled as input to the water management modeling. CERF simulates siting decisions by dynamically representing suitable areas for different generation technologies with geospatial analyses (informed by technology-specific siting criteria, such as required mean streamflow per the Clean Water Act), and then choosing siting locations to minimize interconnection costs (to electric transmission and gas pipelines). CERF results are compared across three scenarios simulated by GCAM-USA: 1) a non-mitigation scenario (RCP8.5) in which conventional fossil-fueled technologies prevail, 2) a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) in which the carbon price causes a shift toward nuclear, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), and renewables, and 3) a repeat of scenario (2) in which CCS technologies are

  6. Future Space Requirements for Indiana's Institutions of Higher Education. Higher Education in Indiana. Long Range Needs and Resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayless, Paul C.; And Others

    Based on data obtained in earlier phases of a comprehensive planning study, this report presents--(1) the development of a space projection model responsive to unique institutional requirements, and (2) a forecast of the aggregate academic space needs of higher education in Indiana for a given future enrollment level. The scope of the study and a…

  7. 26 CFR 54.4980F-1 - Notice requirements for certain pension plan amendments significantly reducing the rate of future...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 17 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Notice requirements for certain pension plan amendments significantly reducing the rate of future benefit accrual. 54.4980F-1 Section 54.4980F-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) MISCELLANEOUS EXCISE TAXES (CONTINUED) PENSION EXCISE TAXES § 54.4980...

  8. Contaminated land in Colombia: A critical review of current status and future approach for the management of contaminated sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arias Espana, Victor Andres; Rodriguez Pinilla, Alfonso R; Bardos, Paul; Naidu, Ravi

    2018-03-15

    Environmental contaminants can have negative effects on human health and land, air and water resources. Consequently, there have been significant advances in regulation for protecting the environment in developed countries including the development of remediation frameworks and guidelines. On the other hand, fewer studies have been reported on the risks and health effects of contaminants in developing regions and there is scarce information regarding contaminated land assessment and environmental remediation. Colombia is an important emerging economy and has started to take the first steps towards the development of a framework for the management of contaminated sites and there are opportunities for the country to learn from countries with well-established frameworks such as the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) and for international collaboration with organisations such as CRC for Contamination Assessment and Remediation of the Environment (CARE). We review main pollution issues, current status of contaminated land management in Colombia to identify the gaps in policy and regulation. We also review the UK and US contaminated land policies and regulations to identify the elements of those experiences that could support progress in the country. Finally, we propose recommendations (e.g. risk based approach, soil screening criteria, clean-up funding, liability) for Colombia that could support further development and implementation of a more effective contaminated land management framework. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Final Environmental Impact Statement on 10 CFR Part 61 licensing requirements for land disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-11-01

    The three-volume final environmental impact statement (FEIS) is prepared to guide and support publication of a final regulation, 10 CFR Part 61, for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. The FEIS is prepared in response to public comments received on the draft environmental impact statement (DEIS) on the proposed Part 61 regulation. The DEIS was published in September 1981 as NUREG-0782. Public comments received on the proposed Part 61 regulation separate from the DEIS are also considered in the FEIS. The FEIS is not a rewritten version of the DEIS, which contains an exhaustive and detailed analysis of alternatives, but rather references the DEIS and presents the final decision bases and conclusions (costs and impacts) which are reflected in the Part 61 requirements. Four cases are specifically considered in the FEIS representing the following: past disposal practice, existing disposal practice, Part 61 requirements, and an upper bound example. The Summary and Main Report are contained in Volume 1. Volume 2 consists of Appendices A - Staff Analysis of Public Comments on the DEIS for 10 CFR Part 61, and Appendices B - Staff Analysis of Public Comments on Proposed 10 CFR Part 61 Rulemaking. Volume 3 contains Appendices C-F, entitled as follows: Appendix C - Revisions to Impact Analysis Methodology, Appendix D - Computer Codes Used for FEIS Calculations, Appendix E - Errata for the DEIS for 10 CFR Part 61 and last, Appendix F - Final Rule and Supplementary Information

  10. Potential climate effect of mineral aerosols over West Africa: Part II—contribution of dust and land cover to future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Zhenming; Wang, Guiling; Yu, Miao; Pal, Jeremy S.

    2018-04-01

    Mineral dust aerosols are an essential component of climate over West Africa, however, little work has been performed to investigate their contributions to potential climate change. A set of regional climate model experiments with and without mineral dust processes and land cover changes is performed to evaluate their climatic effects under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for two global climate models. Results suggest surface warming to be in the range of 4-8 °C by the end of the century (2081-2100) over West Africa with respect to the present day (1981-2000). The presence of mineral dusts dampens the warming by 0.1-1 °C in all seasons. Accounting for changes in land cover enhances the warming over the north of Sahel and dampens it to the south in spring and summer; however, the magnitudes are smaller than those resulting from dusts. Overall dust loadings are projected to increase, with the greatest increase occurring over the Sahara and Sahel in summer. Accounting for land cover changes tends to reduce dust loadings over the southern Sahel. Future precipitation is projected to decrease by 5-40 % in the western Sahara and Sahel and increase by 10-150 % over the eastern Sahel and Guinea Coast in JJA. A dipole pattern of future precipitation changes is attributed to dust effects, with decrease in the north by 5-20 % and increase by 5-20 % in the south. Future changes in land cover result in a noisy non-significant response with a tendency for slight wetting in MAM, JJA, and SON and drying in DJF.

  11. Climate change and large-scale land acquisitions in Africa: Quantifying the future impact on acquired water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiarelli, Davide Danilo; Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2016-08-01

    Pressure on agricultural land has markedly increased since the start of the century, driven by demographic growth, changes in diet, increasing biofuel demand, and globalization. To better ensure access to adequate land and water resources, many investors and countries began leasing large areas of agricultural land in the global South, a phenomenon often termed "large-scale land acquisition" (LSLA). To date, this global land rush has resulted in the appropriation of 41million hectares and about 490 km3 of freshwater resources, affecting rural livelihoods and local environments. It remains unclear to what extent land and water acquisitions contribute to the emergence of water-stress conditions in acquired areas, and how these demands for water may be impacted by climate change. Here we analyze 18 African countries - 20 Mha (or 80%) of LSLA for the continent - and estimate that under present climate 210 km3 year-1of water would be appropriated if all acquired areas were actively under production. We also find that consumptive use of irrigation water is disproportionately contributed by water-intensive biofuel crops. Using the IPCCA1B scenario, we find only small changes in green (-1.6%) and blue (+2.0%) water demand in targeted areas. With a 3 °C temperature increase, crop yields are expected to decrease up to 20% with a consequent increase in the water footprint. When the effect of increasing atmospheric CO2concentrations is accounted for, crop yields increase by as much as 40% with a decrease in water footprint up to 29%. The relative importance of CO2 fertilization and warming will therefore determine water appropriations and changes in water footprint under climate change scenarios.

  12. Streamflow response to future land-cover change at a headwaters catchment spanning the alpine-subalpine transition on the Colorado Front Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnhart, T. B.; Vukomanovic, J.; Bourgeron, P.; Molotch, N. P.

    2017-12-01

    Land-cover change at the alpine-subalpine interface has the potential to change the water balance of mountainous, snow-dominated catchments due to the influence of vegetation on blowing snow, effective precipitation, evapotranspiration, and other processes. Understanding how land-cover change will impact water resources in snow-dominated regions is of critical importance as these locations produce a disproportionate amount of runoff relative to their land area. We coupled the LANdscape DIsturbance and Succession (LANDIS-II) model with a spatially explicit, physics-based, watershed process model, the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys), to simulate land-cover change and its impact on the water balance in a 6.6 km­2 headwater catchment that spans the alpine-subalpine transition on the Colorado Front Range. We simulated two potential futures of air temperature warming (+4 °C/century) to 2100: a) increased precipitation (+15%, MP) and b) decreased precipitation (-15%, LP). As the LANDIS-II model simulates forest succession in a stochastic manner, we use three LANDIS-II model runs each for the MP and LP future forcing conditions. For both MP and LP, the RHESSys forcing data set was updated to reflect the changes in precipitation and temperature used to generate the land-cover futures. Forest cover in the catchment increased from 72% in 2000 to 84% and 83% in 2050 and to 95% and 92% in 2100 for MP and LP, respectively. Somewhat surprisingly, this increase in forest cover led to mean increases in streamflow production of 9% for MP and 3% for LP in 2050. In 2100, mean streamflow production increased by 15% and 6% for the MP and LP scenarios, respectively. This is likely due to increases in effective precipitation as the catchment forested and blowing snow decreased. Indeed, catchment effective precipitation increased from 94% in 2000 to 97% and 99% in 2050 and 2100, respectively, for both MP and LP conditions. This result counters previous work as runoff

  13. 17 CFR 1.15 - Risk assessment reporting requirements for futures commission merchants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION GENERAL REGULATIONS UNDER THE COMMODITY EXCHANGE ACT Minimum Financial and... internal financial reporting process; (ii) Fiscal year-end annual consolidated and consolidating income... Person as part of its internal financial reporting process; and (iii) Upon receiving written notice from...

  14. Keeping an eye on reliability : The organizational requirements of future renewable energy systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholten, D.J.

    2012-01-01

    The reliable operation of energy infrastructures is more than just a technical matter. It is also dependent upon the organizational structure that enables and constrains entities in their management of operations. Yet this lesson seems forgotten in our planning of future renewable energy systems.

  15. Renewable Energy Requirements for Future Building Codes: Energy Generation and Economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Russo, Bryan J.; Weimar, Mark R.; Dillon, Heather E.

    2011-09-30

    As the model energy codes are improved to reach efficiency levels 50 percent greater than current codes, installation of on-site renewable energy generation is likely to become a code requirement. This requirement will be needed because traditional mechanisms for code improvement, including the building envelope, mechanical systems, and lighting, have been maximized at the most cost-effective limit.

  16. "A Change of Paradigm" in Developing Land Forces Officers' Professional Skills in Accordance with Hybrid Warfare Task-Requirements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Rizescu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In future conflicts, not only traditional or asymmetric actions will be used, but also a combination of the two in order to solve the disputes involving national and international actors, materialized today in different manifestation forms called hybrid war. The hybrid threats tell about the evolution of the contemporary and future threats, about the necessity of a national effort concerted towards providing an immediate effective response to these threats. From a different perspective, the diversity and the complexity of the issues raised by the hybrid threats prove that it is necessary to go beyond the technical or sequential nowadays answers. It results first that it is required to develop an appropriate security strategy which will make possible the efficient action against hybrid risks and threats, in an effective, operational and unitary manner. Therefore, the present article aims at sequentially highlighting the aspects supporting the need to correlate the coordinates of the national security strategy to the planning, conduct and quality assessment of the process of training officers from the “change of paradigm” perspective, in order to acquire the professional skills conforming to the task-requirements specific to the hybrid war. Nothing more natural, more necessary and at the same time more current in this perspective than modernizing the military continuous education system in accordance with the strategic norm of competence.

  17. Integrated simulation of consumptive use and land subsidence in the Central Valley, California, for the past and for a future subject to urbanization and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Randall T.; Flint, Alan L.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Leake, Stanley A.; Schmid, Wolfgang

    2010-01-01

    Competition for water resources is growing throughout California, particularly in the Central Valley where about 20% of all groundwater used in the United States is consumed for agriculture and urban water supply. Continued agricultural use coupled with urban growth and potential climate change would result in continued depletion of groundwater storage and associated land subsidence throughout the Central Valley. For 1962-2003, an estimated 1,230 hectare meters (hm3) of water was withdrawn from fine-grained beds, resulting in more than three meters (m) of additional land subsidence locally. Linked physically-based, supply-constrained and emanddriven hydrologic models were used to simulate future hydrologic conditions under the A2 climate projection scenario that assumes continued "business as usual" greenhouse gas emissions. Results indicate an increased subsidence in the second half of the twenty-first century. Potential simulated land subsidence extends into urban areas and the eastern side of the valley where future surface-water deliveries may be depleted. 

  18. The role of Latin America's land and water resources for global food security: environmental trade-offs of future food production pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flachsbarth, Insa; Willaarts, Bárbara; Xie, Hua; Pitois, Gauthier; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Ringler, Claudia; Garrido, Alberto

    2015-01-01

    One of humanity's major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC's agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)-a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector-to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths.

  19. The Role of Latin America’s Land and Water Resources for Global Food Security: Environmental Trade-Offs of Future Food Production Pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flachsbarth, Insa; Willaarts, Bárbara; Xie, Hua; Pitois, Gauthier; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Ringler, Claudia; Garrido, Alberto

    2015-01-01

    One of humanity’s major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC’s agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)—a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector—to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. PMID:25617621

  20. The Influence of Historical and Potential Future Deforestation on the Stream Flow of the Amazon River -- Land Surface Processes and Atmospheric Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, M. T.; Costa, M. H.; Soares-Filho, B.

    2008-12-01

    Global economic and regional population and development pressures have resulted in high rates of deforestation in the Amazon River basin, mostly in the eastern and southern portion of the basin. Recent deforestation rates reflect the global demand for Brazilian free-range beef and soybeans with about 22,000 km2 deforested each year between 2000 and 2004 and 7000 km2 deforested in the final months of 2007. Land cover and land use changes influence the quantity of surface water resources by changing how incoming precipitation and radiation are partitioned among sensible and latent heat fluxes, runoff, and river discharge and altering regional and continental scale precipitation patterns. Results from coupled land surface and global climate model simulations clarify a few important points about the impact of deforestation on the Amazon River: 1) The local evapotranspiration decrease and subsequent discharge increase can be a significant fraction of the water balance when greater than 50% of a watershed is deforested. 2) The atmospheric feedbacks from large-scale deforestation may be of the same order of magnitude as the changes to local land surface processes, but of opposite sign and are not limited to those basins where deforestation has occurred. 3) Changes to discharge and aquatic environments with future deforestation of the Amazon will likely be a complex function of how much vegetation has been removed from a particular watershed and how much has been removed from the entire Amazon Basin.

  1. Disentangling the effects of land-use change, climate and CO2 on projected future European habitat types

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lehsten, V; Sykes, M.T.; Scott, A.V.; Tzanopoulis, A.; Kallimanis, A.; Verburg, P.H.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Potts, S.G.; Vogiatzakis, I.

    2015-01-01

    Aim: To project the potential European distribution of seven broad habitat categories (needle-leaved, broad-leaved, mixed and mediterranean forest, urban, grassland and cropland) in order to assess effects of land use, climate change and increase in CO2 on predicted habitat changes up to

  2. A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, P.H.; Eickhout, B.; Meijl, van H.

    2008-01-01

    Europe¿s rural areas are expected to witness massive and rapid changes in land use due to changes in demography, global trade, technology and enlargement of the European Union. Changes in demand for agricultural products and agrarian production structure are likely to have a large impact on

  3. Past and future impacts of land use and climate change on agricultural ecosystem services in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lorencová, E.; Frélichová, J.; Nelson, E.; Vačkář, David

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 33, JUL (2013), s. 183-194 ISSN 0264-8377 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * scenarios * land use change * ecosystem services * agriculture * assessment Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.134, year: 2013

  4. Changes in historical Iowa land cover as context for assessing the environmental benefits of current and future conservation efforts on agricultural lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallant, Alisa L.; Sadinski, Walt; Roth, Mark F.; Rewa, Charles A.

    2011-01-01

    Conservationists and agriculturists face unprecedented challenges trying to minimize tradeoffs between increasing demands for food, fiber, feed, and biofuels and the resulting loss or reduced values of other ecosystem services, such as those derived from wetlands and biodiversity (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment 2005a, 2005c; Maresch et al. 2008). The Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (Pub. L. 110-234, Stat. 923, HR 2419, also known as the 2008 Farm Bill) reauthorized the USDA to provide financial incentives for agricultural producers to reduce environmental impacts via multiple conservation programs. Two prominent programs, the Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP) and the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), provide incentives for producers to retire environmentally sensitive croplands, minimize erosion, improve water quality, restore wetlands, and provide wildlife habitat (USDA FSA 2008a, 2008b; USDA NRCS 2002). Other conservation programs (e.g., Environmental Quality Incentives Program, Conservation Stewardship Program) provide incentives to implement structural and cultural conservation practices to improve the environmental performance of working agricultural lands. Through its Conservation Effects Assessment Project, USDA is supporting evaluation of the environmental benefits obtained from the public investment in conservation programs and practices to inform decisions on where further investments are warranted (Duriancik et al. 2008; Zinn 1997).

  5. Water in the Native World: Hydrological Impacts of Future Land Use and Climate Change in the Lumbee River Watershed and Implications for Ecosystems and Indigenous Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emanuel, R. E.; Singh, N.; Painter, J.; Sikes, J. A.; Vose, J. M.; Wear, D. N.; Martin, K. L.

    2016-12-01

    In the coming decades, the southeastern US will likely experience substantial shifts in land use due to population growth, food and energy production, and other factors. In the same period, climate change is expected to alter ecohydrological processes in terrestrial landscapes while contributing to further land use change. Increasingly, these changes will challenge the ability of the region's freshwater resources to support natural ecosystems and human communities. The impacts of land use and climate change on water are of particular concern to rural indigenous communities of the southeastern US. For these communities, the cultural significance of land and water, together with historical legacies of discrimination, marginalization and other factors, combine to create unique vulnerabilities to environmental change. Assessments of land use and climate impacts on water resources of the southeastern US tend to focus on quantity and quality concerns of large cities or on waters of special economic concern (e.g. estuaries and coastal fisheries). The potential impacts of land use and climate change on American Indian communities are largely overlooked or unknown. With this in mind, we used a semi-distributed hydrological model (SWAT) to assess impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow regimes in the Lumbee (aka Lumber) River, North Carolina (USA). This coastal plain blackwater river is a significant natural and cultural resource for indigenous people of the Lumbee Tribe, and its watershed, containing extensive riparian wetlands and agriculture-dominated uplands, is home to more than 30,000 tribal citizens. We ran SWAT with statistically downscaled output from four general circulation models (GCMs) for the mid-21st century (RCP8.5 scenario), together with a mid-century land use scenario from the US Forest Service's Southern Forest Futures Project. We used these inputs to simulate daily streamflows on the Lumbee River for the 2040-2060 period with uncertainty

  6. Assessment of Future Skills Requirements in the Hospitality Sector in Ireland, 2015-2020

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    The hospitality sector is one of the most important employment services sectors in the Irish economy, and there is significant potential for future expansion. The objective of this study is to assess the skills demand needs arising within the Hospitality sector in Ireland – hotels, restaurants, bars, canteens and catering – over the period to 2020. The aim is to ensure that there will be the right supply of skills to help drive domestic hospitality sector business and employment growth.

  7. Evaluation of Seed and Forage Yield of Perennial Plants with Low Water Requirement in Abandoned Farming Lands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali gazanchian

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Drought is a natural phenomenon in arid and semi-arid regions of the world. It is created by low precipitation, high evaporation and reduced soil moisture. Today, they are the major threats to agricultural lands due to fluctuations in rainfall, limited water resources, wells salinization and subsequently abandoned farming lands. Iran is located on the world's dry belt and more than 90 percent of its area is located in the arid and semi-arid climatic regions. It has been reported that the annual rate of soil erosion is up to 33 tons per hectare and 5 to 6 times more than the standard limit. Also, 90% of the country's protein production comes from animals sources. Due to the lack of adequate forage production, the main burden of protein production is imposed on the natural resources and pastures. Therefore, In order to enhance soil stabilization and maintain its fertility, optimum use of off-season precipitations, preventing the flow of water and protecting the abandoned farming lands from the flood risk, increasing the water permeability in the soil, and helping to feed the underwater aquifers and finally the production of forage and seeds, the development of perennial plants cultivation is an important conservative practice. The aim of this study is to emphasize on the selection of the best perennial forage species with low water requirements and acceptable performance for renovation of the abandoned farming lands and moving towards sustainable agriculture approaches. Materials and Methods In this experiment, 10 species of perennial grasses (Agropyron elongatum Host., Secale montanum Guss., Festuca arundinaceae Schreb., Dactylis glomerata L., Agropyron intermedium Host., Agropyron repense L., Agropyron cristatum L., Panicum antidutale Retz., Bromus inermis Leyss., Bromus riparius Rehmann, Agropyron cristatum L. and two legumes includes Trifolium pratense L., Onobrychis sativa Lam. were studied at Asatan-e-Ghods Razavi farm in

  8. AMTD: Update of Engineering Specifications Derived from Science Requirements for Future UVOIR Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Postman, Marc; Mosier, Gary; Smith, W. Scott; Blaurock, Carl; Ha, Kong; Stark, Christopher C.

    2014-01-01

    The Advance Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) project is in Phase 2 of a multiyear effort, initiated in FY12, to mature by at least a half TRL step six critical technologies required to enable 4 meter or larger UVOIR space telescope primary mirror assemblies for both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets. AMTD uses a science-driven systems engineering approach. We mature technologies required to enable the highest priority science AND provide a high-performance low-cost low-risk system. To give the science community options, we are pursuing multiple technology paths. A key task is deriving engineering specifications for advanced normal-incidence monolithic and segmented mirror systems needed to enable both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets missions as a function of potential launch vehicles and their mass and volume constraints. A key finding of this effort is that the science requires an 8 meter or larger aperture telescope

  9. AMTD: update of engineering specifications derived from science requirements for future UVOIR space telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Postman, Marc; Mosier, Gary; Smith, W. Scott; Blaurock, Carl; Ha, Kong; Stark, Christopher C.

    2014-08-01

    The Advance Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) project is in Phase 2 of a multiyear effort, initiated in FY12, to mature by at least a half TRL step six critical technologies required to enable 4 meter or larger UVOIR space telescope primary mirror assemblies for both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets. AMTD uses a science-driven systems engineering approach. We mature technologies required to enable the highest priority science AND provide a high-performance low-cost low-risk system. To give the science community options, we are pursuing multiple technology paths. A key task is deriving engineering specifications for advanced normal-incidence monolithic and segmented mirror systems needed to enable both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets missions as a function of potential launch vehicles and their mass and volume constraints. A key finding of this effort is that the science requires an 8 meter or larger aperture telescope.

  10. DoD Related Software Technology Requirements, Practices, and Prospects for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-06-01

    Batz, P. M. Cohen, S. T. Redwine and J. R. Rice . "The application-specific task area".* IEEE COMputer. 16:11, November 1983, pp. 78-85. 42. B. Boehm...Strategy Division 1E965 Pentagon Washington, D.C. 20310 Col. J.S.V. Edgar 695-5630 D-2 APPRUDIX 2 Analysis of Airland Battle 2000 for Future Software...one might note that Dijkstra has been an employee of Burroughs since 1973 although still based in the Netherlands.) The year 1972 also marked the

  11. Requirements to be made on future information systems in NPP operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, G.; Distler, K.

    1987-01-01

    The objective of advanced operational information systems (OIS) is to support and alleviate the operator's work. Human skills and performance limits on the one hand, and the tasks of the operators during various operating states on the other hand are the bases for deriving system design requirements. The paper discusses such aspects like the dynamism of process events, the passive/active role played by the operators in normal/disturbed operation, the compatibility of information representation between OIS and conventional display configuration, parallel versus serial information presentation, team work of operators, parallel processing of tasks within the team; the resulting requirements are derived. (orig./DG) [de

  12. [Estimating the impacts of future climate change on water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat in Henan Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Xing-jie; Cheng, Lin; Fang, Wen-song

    2015-09-01

    Based on the analysis of water requirement and water deficit during development stage of winter wheat in recent 30 years (1981-2010) in Henan Province, the effective precipitation was calculated using the U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation method, the water requirement (ETC) was estimated by using FAO Penman-Monteith equation and crop coefficient method recommended by FAO, combined with the climate change scenario A2 (concentration on the economic envelopment) and B2 ( concentration on the sustainable development) of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) , the spatial and temporal characteristics of impacts of future climate change on effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat were estimated. The climatic impact factors of ETc and WD also were analyzed. The results showed that under A2 and B2 scenarios, there would be a significant increase in anomaly percentage of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period compared with the average value from 1981 to 2010. Effective precipitation increased the most in 2030s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 33.5% and 39.2%, respectively. Water requirement increased the most in 2010s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 22.5% and 17.5%, respectively, and showed a significant downward trend with time. Water deficit increased the most under A2 scenario in 2010s by 23.6% and under B2 scenario in 2020s by 13.0%. Partial correlation analysis indicated that solar radiation was the main cause for the variation of ETc and WD in future under A2 and B2 scenarios. The spatial distributions of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period were spatially heterogeneous because of the difference in geographical and climatic environments. A possible tendency of water resource deficiency may exist in Henan Province in the future.

  13. Land use and energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robeck, K.E.; Ballou, S.W.; South, D.W.; Davis, M.J.; Chiu, S.Y.; Baker, J.E.; Dauzvardis, P.A.; Garvey, D.B.; Torpy, M.F.

    1980-07-01

    This report provides estimates of the amount of land required by past and future energy development in the United States and examines major federal legislation that regulates the impact of energy facilities on land use. An example of one land use issue associated with energy development - the potential conflict between surface mining and agriculture - is illustrated by describing the actual and projected changes in land use caused by coal mining in western Indiana. Energy activities addressed in the report include extraction of coal, oil, natural gas, uranium, oil shale, and geothermal steam; uranium processing; preparation of synfuels from coal; oil refineries; fossil-fuel, nuclear, and hydro-electric power plants; biomass energy farms; and disposal of solid wastes generated during combustion of fossil fuels. Approximately 1.1 to 3.3 x 10 6 acres were devoted to these activities in the United States in 1975. As much as 1.8 to 2.0 x 10 6 additional acres could be required by 1990 for new, nonbiomass energy development. The production of grain for fuel ethanol could require an additional 16.9 to 55.7 x 10 6 acres by 1990. Federal laws that directly or indirectly regulate the land-use impacts of energy facilities include the National Environmental Protection Act, Clean Air Act, Federal Water Pollution Control Act, Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act, and Coastal Zone Management Act. The major provisions of these acts, other relevant federal regulations, and similar state and local regulatons are described in this report. Federal legislation relating to air quality, water quality, and the management of public lands has the greatest potential to influence the location and timing of future energy development in the United States

  14. Land use and energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robeck, K.E.; Ballou, S.W.; South, D.W.; Davis, M.J.; Chiu, S.Y.; Baker, J.E.; Dauzvardis, P.A.; Garvey, D.B.; Torpy, M.F.

    1980-07-01

    This report provides estimates of the amount of land required by past and future energy development in the United States and examines major federal legislation that regulates the impact of energy facilities on land use. An example of one land use issue associated with energy development - the potential conflict between surface mining and agriculture - is illustrated by describing the actual and projected changes in land use caused by coal mining in western Indiana. Energy activities addressed in the report include extraction of coal, oil, natural gas, uranium, oil shale, and geothermal steam; uranium processing; preparation of synfuels from coal; oil refineries; fossil-fuel, nuclear, and hydro-electric power plants; biomass energy farms; and disposal of solid wastes generated during combustion of fossil fuels. Approximately 1.1 to 3.3 x 10/sup 6/ acres were devoted to these activities in the United States in 1975. As much as 1.8 to 2.0 x 10/sup 6/ additional acres could be required by 1990 for new, nonbiomass energy development. The production of grain for fuel ethanol could require an additional 16.9 to 55.7 x 10/sup 6/ acres by 1990. Federal laws that directly or indirectly regulate the land-use impacts of energy facilities include the National Environmental Protection Act, Clean Air Act, Federal Water Pollution Control Act, Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act, and Coastal Zone Management Act. The major provisions of these acts, other relevant federal regulations, and similar state and local regulatons are described in this report. Federal legislation relating to air quality, water quality, and the management of public lands has the greatest potential to influence the location and timing of future energy development in the United States.

  15. Requirements with rationale and quantitative rules for EMC on future ships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leersum, B.J.A.M.

    2016-01-01

    To ensure the performance on equipment and subsystem level in a naval environment, the conventional approach has been to strictly require national and international military standards on equipment and installations. This approach made Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMC) a cost driver in naval

  16. Using the Past to Predict the Future: The Public Land Survey, 19th Century Climate and the PalEON Project

    OpenAIRE

    Goring, Simon; Williams, Jack; Ruid, Madeline; McLachlan, Jason; Jackson, Stephen; Paciorek, Chris; Mladenoff, David; Cogbill, Charlie; Record, Sydne; Dietze, Michael C.

    2013-01-01

    Presentation for the Yi-Fu Seminar at the University of Wisconsin-Madison's Department of Geography.  Presented on February 15th by Simon Goring.  The talk abstract is here:   Using Historical Records to Help Predict the Future: The Public Land Survey, 19th Century Climate and the PalEON Project Predicting the response of organisms to changing climates in the 21st century is a major conservation challenge. Standard practice uses the relationship between modern species ranges and climate...

  17. Software to support planning for future waste treatment, storage, transport, and disposal requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holter, G.M.; Shay, M.R.; Stiles, D.L.

    1990-04-01

    Planning for adequate and appropriate treatment, storage, transport and disposal of wastes to be generated or received in the future is a complex but critical task that can be significantly enhanced by the development and use of appropriate software. This paper describes a software system that has been developed at Pacific Northwest Laboratory to aid in such planning. The basic needs for such a system are outlined, and the approach adopted in developing the software is described. The individual components of the system, and their integration into a unified system, are discussed. Typical analytical applications of this type of software are summarized. Conclusions concerning the development of such software systems and the necessary supporting data are then presented. 2 figs

  18. Tissue Engineering of Blood Vessels: Functional Requirements, Progress, and Future Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Vivek A; Brewster, Luke P; Caves, Jeffrey M; Chaikof, Elliot L

    2011-09-01

    Vascular disease results in the decreased utility and decreased availability of autologus vascular tissue for small diameter (engineered replacement vessels represent an ideal solution to this clinical problem. Ongoing progress requires combined approaches from biomaterials science, cell biology, and translational medicine to develop feasible solutions with the requisite mechanical support, a non-fouling surface for blood flow, and tissue regeneration. Over the past two decades interest in blood vessel tissue engineering has soared on a global scale, resulting in the first clinical implants of multiple technologies, steady progress with several other systems, and critical lessons-learned. This review will highlight the current inadequacies of autologus and synthetic grafts, the engineering requirements for implantation of tissue-engineered grafts, and the current status of tissue-engineered blood vessel research.

  19. CANDU 9 - the CANDU product to meet customer and regulator requirements now and in the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snell, V.G.; Webb, J.R.

    1998-01-01

    CANDU reactors developed under Canadian licensing regulations that placed the primary responsibility for safety on the licensee. The Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB), Canada's nuclear regulatory agency, state in their regulations what is expected in terms of safety performance so that designers are free to propose the best means of meeting this performance. This goal-oriented approach, besides encouraging innovation, allowed CANDU to be licensed in other jurisdictions. The latest design - the large, single unit, CANDU 9 - explicitly incorporates licensability in Canada through a formal AECB review of the design; lessons learned from licensing CANDU 6 in Asian countries, particularly with Wolsong 2, 3 and 4 in Korea, and more recently with Qinshan in China; utility requirements for modem evolutionary plants; and emerging international standards for safety, sponsored or issued by the IAEA. By combining the assurance of acceptability in Canada with compliance with foreign and international requirements, CANDU 9 becomes an internationally licensable product. (author)

  20. Probe And Drogue Aerial Refueling Requirements: How Will Air Force Special Operations Command Meet Future Demands?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-06-01

    Global Strike Task Force,” ( GSTF ) which will be explained in greater detail shortly. Added to this requirement is the need to increase the...21 Global Strike Task Force Global Strike Task Force ( GSTF ) is the concept, initiated by General John R. Jumper, Air Force Chief of Staff...the way we fight. GSTF is the Chief’s concept to deal with the difficulties presented by regional threats, asymmetric challenges, and wild card

  1. Evaluation of Shipbuilding CAD/CAM/CIM Systems - Phase II (Requirements for Future Systems)

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-02-01

    Odense Steel Shipyard SENER Ingenieria y Sistemas Peter Marks and Kathleen Riles, Authors of Aligning Technology Torben Andersen, Executive Vice...Sener Ingenieria y Sistemas - FORAN 3 • Intergraph-ISDP ● Black and Veatch - POWRTRAK. The information gleaned from these visits was immense. Perhaps...Yard-w- de access to on-line schedules - Real time visual display of labor hour requirements by area and trade as block Iaydowns are manipulated to

  2. High resolution weather data for urban hydrological modelling and impact assessment, ICT requirements and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van Riemsdijk, Birna

    2013-04-01

    Hydrological analysis of urban catchments requires high resolution rainfall and catchment information because of the small size of these catchments, high spatial variability of the urban fabric, fast runoff processes and related short response times. Rainfall information available from traditional radar and rain gauge networks does no not meet the relevant scales of urban hydrology. A new type of weather radars, based on X-band frequency and equipped with Doppler and dual polarimetry capabilities, promises to provide more accurate rainfall estimates at the spatial and temporal scales that are required for urban hydrological analysis. Recently, the RAINGAIN project was started to analyse the applicability of this new type of radars in the context of urban hydrological modelling. In this project, meteorologists and hydrologists work closely together in several stages of urban hydrological analysis: from the acquisition procedure of novel and high-end radar products to data acquisition and processing, rainfall data retrieval, hydrological event analysis and forecasting. The project comprises of four pilot locations with various characteristics of weather radar equipment, ground stations, urban hydrological systems, modelling approaches and requirements. Access to data processing and modelling software is handled in different ways in the pilots, depending on ownership and user context. Sharing of data and software among pilots and with the outside world is an ongoing topic of discussion. The availability of high resolution weather data augments requirements with respect to the resolution of hydrological models and input data. This has led to the development of fully distributed hydrological models, the implementation of which remains limited by the unavailability of hydrological input data. On the other hand, if models are to be used in flood forecasting, hydrological models need to be computationally efficient to enable fast responses to extreme event conditions. This

  3. Firefighter safety for PV systems: Overview of future requirements and protection systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spataru, Sergiu; Sera, Dezso; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2013-01-01

    for operators during maintenance or fire-fighting. One of the solutions is individual module shutdown by short-circuiting or disconnecting each PV module from the PV string. However, currently no standards have been adopted either for implementing or testing these methods, or doing an evaluation of the module...... shutdown procedures. This paper gives an overview on the most recent fire - and firefighter safety requirements for PV systems, with focus on system and module shutdown systems. Several solutions are presented, analyzed and compared by considering a number of essential characteristics, including...... their transient behavior, components' voltage stress and conduction losses....

  4. Advancing vector biology research: a community survey for future directions, research applications and infrastructure requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Alain; Pondeville, Emilie; Schnettler, Esther; Crisanti, Andrea; Supparo, Clelia; Christophides, George K; Kersey, Paul J; Maslen, Gareth L; Takken, Willem; Koenraadt, Constantianus J M; Oliva, Clelia F; Busquets, Núria; Abad, F Xavier; Failloux, Anna-Bella; Levashina, Elena A; Wilson, Anthony J; Veronesi, Eva; Pichard, Maëlle; Arnaud Marsh, Sarah; Simard, Frédéric; Vernick, Kenneth D

    2016-01-01

    Vector-borne pathogens impact public health, animal production, and animal welfare. Research on arthropod vectors such as mosquitoes, ticks, sandflies, and midges which transmit pathogens to humans and economically important animals is crucial for development of new control measures that target transmission by the vector. While insecticides are an important part of this arsenal, appearance of resistance mechanisms is increasingly common. Novel tools for genetic manipulation of vectors, use of Wolbachia endosymbiotic bacteria, and other biological control mechanisms to prevent pathogen transmission have led to promising new intervention strategies, adding to strong interest in vector biology and genetics as well as vector-pathogen interactions. Vector research is therefore at a crucial juncture, and strategic decisions on future research directions and research infrastructure investment should be informed by the research community. A survey initiated by the European Horizon 2020 INFRAVEC-2 consortium set out to canvass priorities in the vector biology research community and to determine key activities that are needed for researchers to efficiently study vectors, vector-pathogen interactions, as well as access the structures and services that allow such activities to be carried out. We summarize the most important findings of the survey which in particular reflect the priorities of researchers in European countries, and which will be of use to stakeholders that include researchers, government, and research organizations.

  5. Vulnerability of Coastal Crop Land to Climate Change in the Northern Part of Bay of Bengal: Issues, Challenges and Future Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal, A. H. M.

    2015-12-01

    The coastal communities of northeastern part of Bay of Bengal are used to live and survive through facing different types of natural disasters since primitive time. Among the natural disasters, salinity intrusion due to climate change and sea level rise in the coastal agriculture land is the major unpleasant incident now days. Because of that wide area of the coastal agricultural land, coastal forest, drinking water facilities and fresh water availability are in critical condition which may cause 40 million people of 147 coastal districts covering 47201 km area are placed in danger. The nation wide assessment on the detected of coastal soil and water salinity is not conducted since 9 years. The survey on the coastal soil salinity on 1973 and 2000 found that the saline effected land is increased from 0.83 million ha to 1.20 million ha within 27 years. It is assumed that at present the rate of salinity intrusion in the coastal agriculture land will be higher than those of 1973 and 2000. The soil salinity was recorded 18-20 psu after AILA in the south-eastern coast of Bangladesh and increased further 2-4 psu due to low precipitation which causes crop burning. This paper aims to know the salinity intrusion in the coastal soil and water of Bangladesh, which would help to plan and improvement of the sustainable agriculture production. Study revealed that to face any extra stresses on the coastal agriculture land due to climate change requires extensive inventory, awareness activities, mitigation measures, adaptation techniques and extension of indigenous technology.

  6. Impacts of Cultivated Land Reclamation on the Climate and Grain Production in Northeast China in the Future 30 Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingling Shi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available China, as a large agricultural country as well as a major country with great demand for grain, has played a more and more important role in the international grain market. As Northeast China is one of the major commodity grain bases in China as well as one of the regions with the highest intensity of human activities, it plays an important role in influencing the global food security. This study first generally analyzed the cultivated land reclamation and the climate change of temperature and precipitation in Northeast China during 2000–2010. Then, on the basis of these data, the climatic effects of cultivated land reclamation in Northeast China during 2030–2040 were simulated by the weather research forecast (WRF model. Finally, the possible effects of the climate change on the grain yield and the potential influence on the food security were analyzed. The simulation result indicated that the temperature in Northeast China would be increasing on the whole, while the precipitation would be decreasing. The result of this study can provide some theoretical support to the agricultural economic development in Northeast China and serve the national macropolicy and food security strategy of the whole China.

  7. Biologically-Inspired Hardware for Land/Aerial Robots

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Future generations of NASA land/aerial robots will be required to operate in the harsh, unpredictable environments of extra-terrestrial bodies including asteroids,...

  8. Simulating and mapping the spatial and seasonal effects of future climate and land -use changes on ecosystem services in the Yanhe watershed, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dengshuai; Li, Jing; Zhou, Zixiang; Liu, Yan; Li, Ting; Liu, Jingya

    2018-01-01

    Effective information about ecosystem services is essential to help optimize and prioritize activities that support conservation planning in the face of land use and climate changes. This study shows an approach that integrates several dissimilar models for assessing water-related ecosystem services to predict values in 2050 under three land use scenarios in the Yanhe watershed. The simulated output variables pertaining to water yield and sediment yield were used as indicators for two ecosystem-regulating services, i.e., water flow regulation and erosion regulation, which were quantified using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. The model results were translated into a relative ecosystem service valuation scale, which facilitated the analysis of spatial and seasonal changes and served as the basis for the applied mapping approach. The simulated results indicate that higher water-related regulation services were concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of rivers with high water yield and low sediment erosion. The highest water flow regulation services occurred in summer; nevertheless, this was when erosion regulation services were the lowest compared to other periods in 2050. A comparison of the three land use scenarios showed differences in the water-related regulation services. Scenario 1, with high forest coverage, had the highest erosion regulation services, but the water flow regulation services were the lowest. Scenario 3 showed the reverse pattern. Scenario 2 had intermediate water flow regulation and erosion regulation. Increasing vegetation cover in the watershed is conducive to controlling water and soil erosion but could lead to a decline in available water resources. Spatial mapping is a powerful tool for displaying the spatiotemporal differences in the water-related regulation services delivered by ecosystems and can help decision makers optimize land use in the future, with the goal of maximizing the benefits offered by ecological

  9. Multi-Stage ADRs for Current and Future Astronomy Missions: Performance and Requirements for Cryogen-Free Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirron, Peter; Kimball, Mark; Vlahacos, Kosta

    2010-01-01

    The cooling requirements for current (e.g. Astro-H) and future (e.g. IXO and ASP) astronomy missions pose significant challenges for the sub-Kelvin Cooler. In particular, the use of large detector arrays increases the cooling power needed, and the variety of cryocoolers that can be used for pre-cooling greatly expands the range of temperatures at which the sub-Kelvin cooler can be designed to reject heat. In most cases, there is also a need for a stable higher temperature stage for cooling amplifiers or telescope components. NASA/GSFC is currently building a 3-stage ADR for the Astro-H mission, and is developing a 5-stage ADR suitable for IXO and ASP, as well as many other missions in the early planning stages. The architecture of these ADRs allows them to be adapted rather easily for different cooling requirements and to accommodate different cryocooler capabilities (operating temperature and cooling power). This paper will discuss the performance of these ADRs, which operate in both continuous, and single-shot cooling modes, and the minimum cryocooler capabilities needed to meet the requirements of future missions.

  10. Balancing functional and nutritional quality of oils and fats: Current requirements and future trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van den Bremt Karen

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Oils and fats play an important role in the structure, aroma and stability of a wide variety of food products, as well as in their nutritional properties. For Puratos, a producer of ingredients for bakery, patisserie and chocolate sector, functionality and taste are of utmost importance, but the company also wants to contribute to the balanced diet of consumers. Vegetable oils and fats are used in margarines and releasing agents, vegetable creams, compound chocolate, fillings and emulsifiers. Each application requires an oil or fat with specific physicochemical properties in order to ensure the optimal structure, stability and taste of the end product. Traditionally, (partially hydrogenated vegetable oils deliver important functional characteristics concerning crystallization behaviour, directly linked with the workability, melting properties, stability and mouth feel of the food product. However, due to negative nutritional implications, trans fats are to be replaced by healthier alternatives, preferably not by saturated fats. Consumers – and in some regions, legal instances – demand transfree or hydro-free products while not compromising on taste. Alternative fats and oils will be discussed concerning their functional and nutritional properties.

  11. An Observation-based Assessment of Instrument Requirements for a Future Precipitation Process Observing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, E.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Wood, N.; Smalley, M.; Kulie, M.; Hahn, W.

    2017-12-01

    Global models exhibit substantial biases in the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial scales of precipitation systems. Much of this uncertainty stems from an inadequate representation of the processes by which water is cycled between the surface and atmosphere and, in particular, those that govern the formation and maintenance of cloud systems and their propensity to form the precipitation. Progress toward improving precipitation process models requires observing systems capable of quantifying the coupling between the ice content, vertical mass fluxes, and precipitation yield of precipitating cloud systems. Spaceborne multi-frequency, Doppler radar offers a unique opportunity to address this need but the effectiveness of such a mission is heavily dependent on its ability to actually observe the processes of interest in the widest possible range of systems. Planning for a next generation precipitation process observing system should, therefore, start with a fundamental evaluation of the trade-offs between sensitivity, resolution, sampling, cost, and the overall potential scientific yield of the mission. Here we provide an initial assessment of the scientific and economic trade-space by evaluating hypothetical spaceborne multi-frequency radars using a combination of current real-world and model-derived synthetic observations. Specifically, we alter the field of view, vertical resolution, and sensitivity of a hypothetical Ka- and W-band radar system and propagate those changes through precipitation detection and intensity retrievals. The results suggest that sampling biases introduced by reducing sensitivity disproportionately affect the light rainfall and frozen precipitation regimes that are critical for warm cloud feedbacks and ice sheet mass balance, respectively. Coarser spatial resolution observations introduce regime-dependent biases in both precipitation occurrence and intensity that depend on cloud regime, with even the sign of the bias varying within a

  12. Aircraft Loss-of-Control: Analysis and Requirements for Future Safety-Critical Systems and Their Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belcastro, Christine M.

    2011-01-01

    Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex, resulting from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or more often in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. This paper summarizes recent analysis results in identifying worst-case combinations of loss-of-control accident precursors and their time sequences, a holistic approach to preventing loss-of-control accidents in the future, and key requirements for validating the associated technologies.

  13. Probabilistic estimation of future emissions of isoprene and surface oxidant chemistry associated with land-use change in response to growing food needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Hardacre

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available We quantify the impact of land-use change, determined by our growing demand for food and biofuel production, on isoprene emissions and subsequent atmospheric oxidant chemistry in 2015 and 2030, relative to 1990, ignoring compound climate change effects over that period. We estimate isoprene emissions from an ensemble (n = 1000 of land-use change realizations from 1990–2050, broadly guided by the IPCC AR4/SRES scenarios A1 and B1. We also superimpose land-use change required to address projected biofuel usage using two scenarios: (1 assuming that world governments make no changes to biofuel policy after 2009, and (2 assuming that world governments develop biofuel policy with the aim of keeping equivalent atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppm. We present the median and interquartile range (IQR statistics of the ensemble and show that land-use change between −1.50 × 1012 m2 to +6.06 × 1012 m2 was found to drive changes in the global isoprene burden of −3.5 to +2.8 Tg yr−1 in 2015 and −7.7 to +6.4 Tg yr−1 in 2030. We use land-use change realizations corresponding to the median and IQR of these emission estimates to drive the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemistry transport model to investigate the perturbation to global and regional surface concentrations of isoprene, nitrogen oxides (NO+NO2, and the atmospheric concentration and deposition of ozone (O3. We show that across subcontinental regions the monthly surface O3 increases by 0.1–0.8 ppb, relative to a zero land-use change calculation, driven by increases (decreases in surface isoprene in high (low NOx environments. At the local scale (4° × 5° we find that surface O3 increases by 5–12 ppb over temperate North America, China and boreal Eurasia, driven by large increases in isoprene emissions from short-rotation coppice crop cultivation for biofuel production.

  14. Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2000-01-01

    The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants

  15. Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2000-08-01

    The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants.

  16. The SOLUTIONS project: challenges and responses for present and future emerging pollutants in land and water resources management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brack, Werner; Altenburger, Rolf; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Krauss, Martin; López Herráez, David; van Gils, Jos; Slobodnik, Jaroslav; Munthe, John; Gawlik, Bernd Manfred; van Wezel, Annemarie; Schriks, Merijn; Hollender, Juliane; Tollefsen, Knut Erik; Mekenyan, Ovanes; Dimitrov, Saby; Bunke, Dirk; Cousins, Ian; Posthuma, Leo; van den Brink, Paul J; López de Alda, Miren; Barceló, Damià; Faust, Michael; Kortenkamp, Andreas; Scrimshaw, Mark; Ignatova, Svetlana; Engelen, Guy; Massmann, Gudrun; Lemkine, Gregory; Teodorovic, Ivana; Walz, Karl-Heinz; Dulio, Valeria; Jonker, Michiel T O; Jäger, Felix; Chipman, Kevin; Falciani, Francesco; Liska, Igor; Rooke, David; Zhang, Xiaowei; Hollert, Henner; Vrana, Branislav; Hilscherova, Klara; Kramer, Kees; Neumann, Steffen; Hammerbacher, Ruth; Backhaus, Thomas; Mack, Juliane; Segner, Helmut; Escher, Beate; de Aragão Umbuzeiro, Gisela

    2015-01-15

    SOLUTIONS (2013 to 2018) is a European Union Seventh Framework Programme Project (EU-FP7). The project aims to deliver a conceptual framework to support the evidence-based development of environmental policies with regard to water quality. SOLUTIONS will develop the tools for the identification, prioritisation and assessment of those water contaminants that may pose a risk to ecosystems and human health. To this end, a new generation of chemical and effect-based monitoring tools is developed and integrated with a full set of exposure, effect and risk assessment models. SOLUTIONS attempts to address legacy, present and future contamination by integrating monitoring and modelling based approaches with scenarios on future developments in society, economy and technology and thus in contamination. The project follows a solutions-oriented approach by addressing major problems of water and chemicals management and by assessing abatement options. SOLUTIONS takes advantage of the access to the infrastructure necessary to investigate the large basins of the Danube and Rhine as well as relevant Mediterranean basins as case studies, and puts major efforts on stakeholder dialogue and support. Particularly, the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) Common Implementation Strategy (CIS) working groups, International River Commissions, and water works associations are directly supported with consistent guidance for the early detection, identification, prioritisation, and abatement of chemicals in the water cycle. SOLUTIONS will give a specific emphasis on concepts and tools for the impact and risk assessment of complex mixtures of emerging pollutants, their metabolites and transformation products. Analytical and effect-based screening tools will be applied together with ecological assessment tools for the identification of toxicants and their impacts. The SOLUTIONS approach is expected to provide transparent and evidence-based candidates or River Basin Specific Pollutants in the case

  17. Messages, limitations and future needs of research into environmental impacts and mitigating and remediation measures of oil palm and forest land-use and land management in SE Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Rory; Bidin, Kawi; Nurhidayu, Siti; Nainar, Anand; Annammala, Kogilavani; Blake, William; Higton, Sam; Wall, Katy; Darling, Isabella

    2017-04-01

    SOR Programme is specifically testing the effectiveness of RSPO guidelines and possible improved land management measures. After a brief overview of some of the approaches and key findings of these studies, the paper focuses on some of the advantages, limitations and future needs of these studies. Important features of the projects are (1) the involvement of industry, Government and local people from the start in the projects, (2) the focus on the landscape scale and long-term (for example with use of current monitoring as well as a historical approach involving sediment dating and fingerprinting), (3) simultaneous consideration of impacts on a wide variety of environmental impacts, as impacts of land management practices can be beneficial to some but adverse to others. Key limitations and needs are then identified and discussed. The most important of these include how to reconcile the sometimes conflicting impacts of land management practices (and remedial measures) on different environmental parameters and concerns - what is good for Peter is sometimes very bad for Paul. A key need identified, therefore, is for methodologies to evaluate comparative environmental and socioeconomic benefits and costs of sometimes conflicting or alternative land management practices and options that emerge from usually separate scientific investigations of how to reduce impacts of, for example, soil erosion, landslide risk, streamwater pollution, atmospheric emissions, river ecology and landscape biodiversity (and its components). There is also a key need for involvement of social scientists in projects.

  18. Analysis by the Residual Method for Estimate Market Value of Land on the Areas with Mining Exploitation in Subsoil under Future New Building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwozdz-Lason, Monika

    2017-12-01

    This paper attempts to answer some of the following questions: what is the main selling advantage of a plot of land on the areas with mining exploitation? which attributes influence on market value the most? and how calculate the mining influence in subsoil under future new building as market value of plot with commercial use? This focus is not accidental, as the paper sets out to prove that the subsoil load bearing capacity, as directly inferred from the local geotechnical properties with mining exploitation, considerably influences the market value of this type of real estate. Presented in this elaborate analysis and calculations, are part of the ongoing development works which aimed at suggesting a new technology and procedures for estimating the value of the land belonging to the third category geotechnical. Analysed the question was examined both in terms of the theoretical and empirical. On the basis of the analysed code calculations in residual method, numerical, statistical and econometric defined results and final conclusions. A market analysis yielded a group of subsoil stabilization costs which depend on the mining operations interaction, subsoil parameters, type of the contemplated structure, its foundations, selected stabilization method, its overall area and shape.

  19. Urban Land Use Change Effects on Below and Aboveground Carbon Stocks—a Global Perspective and Future Research Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouyat, R. V.; Chen, Y.; Yesilonis, I.; Day, S.

    2014-12-01

    Land use change (LUC) has a significant impact on both above- and below-ground carbon (C) stocks; however, little is known about the net effects of urban LUC on the C cycle and climate system. Moreover, as climate change becomes an increasingly pressing concern, there is growing evidence that urban policy and management decisions can have significant regional impacts on C dynamics. Soil organic carbon (SOC) varies significantly across ecoregions at global and continental scales due to differential sensitivity of primary production, substrate quality, and organic matter decay to changes in temperature and soil moisture. These factors are highly modified by urban LUC due to vegetation removal, soil relocation and disruption, pollution, urban heat island effects, and increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. As a result, on a global scale urban LUC differentially affects the C cycle from ecoregion to ecoregion. For urban ecosystems, the data collected thus far suggests urbanization can lead to both an increase and decrease in soil C pools and fluxes, depending on the native ecosystem being impacted by urban development. For example, in drier climates, urban landscapes accumulate higher C densities than the native ecosystems they replaced. Results suggest also that soil C storage in urban ecosystems is highly variable with very high (> 20.0) and low (urban soils, total SOC densities are consistently 2-fold greater than aboveground stocks. For those soils with low SOC densities, there is potential to increase C sequestration through management, but specific urban related management practices need to be evaluated. In addition, urban LUC is a human-driven process and thus can be modified or adjusted to reduce its impacts on the C cycle. For example, policies that influence development patterns, population density, management practices, and other human factors can greatly ameliorate the impact of urban LUC on the C cycle. However, even with the recent and rapid expansion

  20. Biological Soil Crusts Influence Hydrologic Function Differently in Various Deserts And Future Climate and Land Use will Affect These Relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belnap, J.; Wilcox, B.; Barger, N.; Herrick, J.; van Soyoc, M.

    2012-04-01

    Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) can completely cover plant interspaces in dryland regions, and can constitute 70% or more of the living ground cover. In these areas, where precipitation is low and soils have low fertility, native plants often rely on intact biological soil crusts to provide water and nutrient flow to the broadly scattered vegetation. In cool desert systems, well-developed biocrusts (dominated by lichens and mosses) roughen the soil surface, increasing residence time of surface water flow. This results in increased and relatively homogenous infiltration of water into the soils. Filaments associated with cyanobacteria, fungi, mosses and lichens increase aggregate formation and stabilize soils, thus reducing sediment production, with well-developed biocrusts conferring much more stability on soils than less developed cyanobacterial dominated biocrusts. In hot and hyper-arid desert systems, biocrusts are generally less developed and dominated by cyanobacteria. These biocrusts generally increase runoff from plant interspaces to downslope vegetation. While reduced infiltration may seem to be negative, it can actually be advantageous to the downslope plants, as they may require small watersheds above them to provide the needed amount of water and nutrients required for their growth. Thus, infiltration and nutrient additions are more heterogenous than in cool desert systems. Soil surface disturbance and climate change have the potential to dramatically alter the species composition and thereby function of biological soil crusts in different deserts. Compressional disturbances results in reduced cover and a loss of lichen and moss species. Changes in climate regimes, such as an increase in temperature or a shift in the amount, timing, or intensity of rainfall, will influence the composition and physiological functioning of biological soil crusts, as various crust components have different photosynthetic and respiration responses to temperature and

  1. Multiple beacons for supporting lunar landing navigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theil, Stephan; Bora, Leonardo

    2018-02-01

    The exploration and potential future exploitation of solar system bodies requires technologies for precise and safe landings. Current navigation systems for landing probes are relying on a combination of inertial and optical sensor measurements to determine the current flight state with respect to the target body and the desired landing site. With a future transition from single exploration missions to more frequent first exploration and then exploitation missions, the implementation and operation of these missions changes, since it can be expected that a ground infrastructure on the target body is available in the vicinity of the landing site. In a previous paper, the impact of a single ground-based beacon on the navigation performance was investigated depending on the type of radiometric measurements and on the location of the beacon with respect to the landing site. This paper extends this investigation on options for ground-based multiple beacons supporting the on-board navigation system. It analyzes the impact on the achievable navigation accuracy. For that purpose, the paper introduces briefly the existing navigation architecture based on optical navigation and its extension with radiometric measurements. The same scenario of lunar landing as in the previous paper is simulated. The results are analyzed and discussed. They show a single beacon at a large distance along the landing trajectory and multiple beacons close to the landing site can improve the navigation performance. The results show how large the landing area can be increased where a sufficient navigation performance is achieved using the beacons.

  2. Management and Service-aware Networking Architectures (MANA) for Future Internet - Position Paper: System Functions, Capabilities and Requirements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Galis, A.; Abramowicz, H.; Brunner, M.; Raz, D.; Chemouil, P.; Pras, Aiko

    Future Internet (FI) research and development threads have recently been gaining momentum all over the world and as such the international race to create a new generation Internet is in full swing: GENI, Asia Future Internet, Future Internet Forum Korea, European Union Future Internet Assembly

  3. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Hansen

    Full Text Available We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  4. Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Demotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; hide

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  5. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J; Hearty, Paul J; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  6. Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels. PMID:24312568

  7. Resource requirements, impacts, and potential constraints associated with various energy futures. Annual report. [Energy Supply Planning Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallagher, J.M.; Barany, R.; Paskert, P.F.; Zimmerman, R.G.J.

    1977-03-01

    This is the first annual report describing an effort by Bechtel Corporation to adapt and apply the Energy Supply Planning Model (ESPM) to the support of the systems analysis activities of the United States Energy Research and Development Administration. Office of the Assistant Administrator for Planning Analysis and Evaluation (ERDA/APAE). The primary emphasis of this program is the identification of resource requirements and the associated impacts and potential constraints associated with various future energy options for this country. Accomplishments in 1976 include model application and analysis of energy scenarios derived from the 1976 update of the ERDA National Plan and the ''1976 National Energy Outlook'' of the Federal Energy Administration; analysis of the availability of engineers, manual manpower, and selected materials and equipment commodities; addition of aluminum, carbon steel, and alloy steel materials requirements to the model data base; the addition of several kinds of energy facilities to the modeling system; and refinement of the various aspects of the model and data base. This program shows the need for a clear statement of national energy policy.

  8. Influence of Solar and Thermal Radiation on Future Heat Stress Using CMIP5 Archive Driving the Community Land Model Version 4.5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzan, J. R.; Huber, M.

    2015-12-01

    The summer of 2015 has experienced major heat waves on 4 continents, and heat stress left ~4000 people dead in India and Pakistan. Heat stress is caused by a combination of meteorological factors: temperature, humidity, and radiation. The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) uses Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT)—an empirical metric this is calibrated with temperature, humidity, and radiation—for determining labor capacity during heat stress. Unfortunately, most literature studying global heat stress focuses on extreme temperature events, and a limited number of studies use the combination of temperature and humidity. Recent global assessments use WBGT, yet omit the radiation component without recalibrating the metric.Here we explicitly calculate future WBGT within a land surface model, including radiative fluxes as produced by a modeled globe thermometer. We use the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), which is a component model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), and is maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). To drive our CLM4.5 simulations, we use greenhouse gasses Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (business as usual), and atmospheric output from the CMIP5 Archive. Humans work in a variety of environments, and we place the modeled globe thermometer in a variety of environments. We modify CLM4.5 code to calculate solar and thermal radiation fluxes below and above canopy vegetation, and in bare ground. To calculate wet bulb temperature, we implemented the HumanIndexMod into CLM4.5. The temperature, wet bulb temperature, and radiation fields are calculated at every model time step and are outputted 4x Daily. We use these fields to calculate WBGT and labor capacity for two time slices: 2026-2045 and 2081-2100.

  9. Variations in the Use of Resources for Food : Land, Nitrogen Fertilizer and Food Nexus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jose Ibarrola-Rivas, Maria; Nonhebel, Sanderine

    2016-01-01

    Future dietary changes will increase the global demand for agricultural resources per person. Food production requires several resources which are interrelated: land, water, nutrients and energy. Other studies have calculated the per capita requirements of only one resource (nitrogen or land). In

  10. Downscaling socio-economic prospective scenarios with a participatory approach for assessing the possible impacts of future land use and cover changes on the vulnerability of societies to mountain risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grémont, Marine; Houet, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Due to the peculiarities of their landscapes and topography, mountain areas bring together a large range of socio-economic activities whose sustainability is likely to be jeopardised by projected global changes. Disturbance of hydro-meteorological processes will alter slope stability and affect mountain hazards occurrence. Meanwhile, socio-economic transformations will influence land use and cover changes (LUCC), which in turn will affect both hazards occurrence and hazards consequences on buildings, infrastructures and societies. Already faced with recurrent natural hazards, mountain areas will have to cope with increasing natural risks in the future. Better understanding the pathways through which future socio-economic changes might influence LUCC at local scale is thus a crucial step to assess accurately the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of societies to mountain risks in a global change context. Scientists face two main issues in assessing spatially explicit impacts of socio-economic scenarios in mountainous landscapes. First, modelling LUCC at local scale still faces many challenges related to past (observed) LUCC and those to consider in the future in terms of dynamics and processes. Second, downscaling global socio-economic scenarios so that they provide useful input for local LUCC models requires a thorough analysis of local social dynamics and economic drivers at stake, which falls short with current practices. Numerous socio-economic prospective scenarios have recently been developed at regional, national and international scales. They mostly rely on literature reviews and expert workshops carried out through global sectoral analysis (e.g. agriculture, forestry or industry) but only few of these exercises attempt to decline global scenarios at smaller scales confronting global vision with information gathered from the field and stakeholders. Yet, vulnerability assessments are more useful when undertaken at local scales that are relevant to

  11. Impacts of historic and projected land-cover, land-use, and land-management change on carbon and water fluxes: The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, D. M.; Lombardozzi, D. L.; Lawrence, P.; Hurtt, G. C.

    2017-12-01

    Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to intensify to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the broad question of impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) as well as more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, and data requirements in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. LUMIP is multi-faceted and aims to advance our understanding of land-use change from several perspectives. In particular, LUMIP includes a factorial set of land-only simulations that differ from each other with respect to the specific treatment of land use or land management (e.g., irrigation active or not, crop fertilization active or not, wood harvest on or not), or in terms of prescribed climate. This factorial series of experiments serves several purposes and is designed to provide a detailed assessment of how the specification of land-cover change and land management affects the carbon, water, and energy cycle response to land-use change. The potential analyses that are possible through this set of experiments are vast. For example, comparing a control experiment with all land management active to an experiment with no irrigation allows a multi-model assessment of whether or not the increasing use of irrigation during the 20th century is likely to have significantly altered trends of regional water and energy fluxes (and therefore climate) and/or crop yield and carbon fluxes in agricultural regions. Here, we will present preliminary results from the factorial set of experiments utilizing the Community Land Model (CLM5). The analyses presented here will help guide multi-model analyses once the full set of LUMIP simulations are available.

  12. Future of Water Supply and Demand in the Middle Drâa Valley, Morocco, under Climate and Land Use Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene M. Johannsen

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Regions of scarce fresh water resources, such as the Middle East and North Africa, are facing great challenges already today, and even more in the future, due to climatic and socioeconomic changes. The Middle Drâa valley in Morocco is one of many semi-arid to arid mountainous areas struggling with increasing water scarcity threatening self-sufficient husbandry. In order to maintain people’s livelihoods water management needs to be adapted. The Water Evaluation And Planning System (WEAP software has been widely used to examine complex water systems in the water resource planning sector all around the world and proved to be a helpful asset to show the various interactions of water supply and demand. This paper presents the application of WEAP on the Middle Draâ valley’s water demand and supply, including several socioeconomic and land use scenarios under one basic climate change scenario. The climate scenario shows a significant decrease in available water resources up to 2029 while all socioeconomic scenarios show an increase in water demand. In years of droughts groundwater is used for irrigation, leading to increasingly depleted aquifers. The aquifers are recharged by percolation losses from irrigation and by river bed infiltration the latter of which is stronger in the northern oases than in the southern oases due to water withdrawal rules. A drastic reduction of irrigated agricultural area is the only solution to guarantee sustainable water use.

  13. SafeLand guidelines for landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Europe - Design and required technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazin, S.

    2012-04-01

    Landslide monitoring means the comparison of landslide characteristics like areal extent, speed of movement, surface topography and soil humidity from different periods in order to assess landslide activity. An ultimate "universal" methodology for this purpose does not exist; every technology has its own advantages and disadvantages. End-users should carefully consider each one to select the methodologies that represent the best compromise between pros and cons, and are best suited for their needs. Besides monitoring technology, there are many factors governing the choice of an Early Warning System (EWS). A people-centred EWS necessarily comprises five key elements: (1) knowledge of the risks; (2) identification, monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; (3) operational centre; (4) communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and (5) local capabilities to respond to the warnings received. The expression "end-to-end warning system" is also used to emphasize that EWSs need to span all steps from hazard detection through to community response. The aim of the present work is to provide guidelines for establishing the different components for landslide EWSs. One of the main deliverables of the EC-FP7 SafeLand project addresses the technical and practical issues related to monitoring and early warning for landslides, and identifies the best technologies available in the context of both hazard assessment and design of EWSs. This deliverable targets the end-users and aims to facilitate the decision process by providing guidelines. For the purpose of sharing the globally accumulated expertise, a screening study was done on 14 EWSs from 8 different countries. On these bases, the report presents a synoptic view of existing monitoring methodologies and early-warning strategies and their applicability for different landslide types, scales and risk management steps. Several comprehensive checklists and toolboxes are also included to support informed

  14. Operating the EOSDIS at the Land Processes DAAC Managing Expectations, Requirements, and Performance Across Agencies, Missions, Instruments, Systems, and User Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalvelage, Thomas A.

    2002-09-01

    NASA developed the Earth Observing System (EOS) during the 1990's. At the Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC), located at the USGS EROS Data Center, the EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is required to support heritage missions as well as Landsat 7, Terra, and Aqua. The original system concept of the early 1990's changed as each community had its say -- first the managers, then engineers, scientists, developers, operators, and then finally the general public. The systems at the LP DAAC -- particularly the largest single system, the EOSDIS Core System (ECS) -- are changing as experience accumulates, technology changes, and each user group gains influence. The LP DAAC has adapted as contingencies were planned for, requirements and therefore plans were modified, and expectations changed faster than requirements could hope to be satisfied. Although not responsible for Quality Assurance of the science data, the LP DAAC works to ensure the data are accessible and useable by influencing systems, capabilities, and data formats where possible, and providing tools and user support as necessary. While supporting multiple missions and instruments, the LP DAAC also works with and learns from multiple management and oversight groups as they review mission requirements, system capabilities, and the overall operation of the LP DAAC. Stakeholders, including the Land Science community, are consulted regularly to ensure that the LP DAAC remains cognizant and responsive to the evolving needs of the user community. Today, the systems do not look or function as originally planned, but they do work, and they allow customers to search and order of an impressive amount of diverse data.

  15. No perfect tools: trade-offs of sustainability principles and user requirements in designing support tools for land-use decisions between greenfields and brownfields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartke, Stephan; Schwarze, Reimund

    2015-04-15

    The EU Soil Thematic Strategy calls for the application of sustainability concepts and methods as part of an integrated policy to prevent soil degradation and to increase the re-use of brownfields. Although certain general principles have been proposed for the evaluation of sustainable development, the practical application of sustainability assessment tools (SATs) is contingent on the actual requirements of tool users, e.g. planners or investors, to pick up such instruments in actual decision making. We examine the normative sustainability principles that need to be taken into account in order to make sound land-use decisions between new development on greenfield sites and the regeneration of brownfields - and relate these principles to empirically observed user requirements and the properties of available SATs. In this way we provide an overview of approaches to sustainability assessment. Three stylized approaches, represented in each case by a typical tool selected from the literature, are presented and contrasted with (1) the norm-oriented Bellagio sustainability principles and (2) the requirements of three different stakeholder groups: decision makers, scientists/experts and representatives of the general public. The paper disentangles some of the inevitable trade-offs involved in seeking to implement sustainable land-use planning, i.e. between norm orientation and holism, broad participation and effective communication. It concludes with the controversial assessment that there are no perfect tools and that to be meaningful the user requirements of decision makers must take precedence over those of other interest groups in the design of SATs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Divert Architectures and Guidance, Navigation, and Control to Enable Pinpoint Landing for Planetary Exploration

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Planetary exploration missions in the future will require pinpoint landing capability (within 100 m) as scientific and safety needs increase. The research training...

  17. Improvements to the Noah Land Surface Model in WRF-CMAQ, and its Application to Future Changes in the Chesapeake Bay Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regional, state, and local environmental regulatory agencies often use Eulerian meteorological and air quality models to investigate the potential impacts of climate, emissions, and land use changes on nutrient loading and air quality. The Noah land surface model in WRF could be...

  18. Focus on land reclamation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-04-01

    Various aspects of land reclamation, i.e. returning disturbed land to a state where, at minimum, it is at least capable of supporting the same kinds of land uses as before the disturbance, are discussed. Activities which disturb the land such as surface mining of coal, surface mining and extraction of oil sands, drilling for oil and natural gas, waste disposal sites, including sanitary landfills, clearing timber for forestry, excavating for pipelines and transportation are described, along with land reclamation legislation in Alberta, and indications of future developments in land reclamation research, legislation and regulation. Practical guidelines for individuals are provided on how they might contribute to land reclamation through judicious and informed consumerism, and through practicing good land management, inclusive of reduced use of herbicides, composting of household wastes, and planting of native species or ground cover in place of traditional lawns.

  19. Land management and development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig

    2006-01-01

    encompasses the total natural and built environment. Land Administration Systems (LAS) are institutional frameworks complicated by the tasks they must perform, by national cultural, political and judicial settings, and by technology. This paper facilitates an overall understanding of the land management......Land management is the process by which the resources of land are put into good effect. Land management encompasses all activities associated with the management of land that are required to achieve sustainable development. The concept of land includes properties and natural resources and thereby...... land related data. It is argued that development of such a model is important or even necessary for facilitating a holistic approach to the management of land as the key asset of any nation or jurisdiction....

  20. 17 CFR 41.42 - Customer margin requirements for security futures-authority, purpose, interpretation, and scope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Customer margin requirements... Margin Requirements § 41.42 Customer margin requirements for security futures—authority, purpose... to regulate customer margin collected by brokers, dealers, and members of national securities...

  1. Land Degradation and Desertification Vulnerability Assessment under Land Changes with MEDALUS approach in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, C.; Lee, E. J.; Yoo, S.; Lim, C. H.; Lee, S. J.; Lee, W. K.

    2016-12-01

    Land degradation usually referred the loss of land productivity, and the desertification was the result of the land degradation. To understand the symptoms of environmental changes, using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Net Primary Product (NPP) was novel approach. In this study, however, focused on land cover change itself. Therefore, this study focused on land cover change direction and frequency to understand the land degradation. We assumed that lands changed from natural vegetation to artificial barren area were degradation area, and lands changed a lot of classes in specific time were face high pressure of land degradation. For the analysis, we used MODIS land cover data which had around 500m spatial resolution, and time period was 2001 to 2012. We also applied Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) approach which requires following variables as its input data: climate quality, soil quality, vegetation quality and management quality. This approach originated from Mediterranean region, however, this study assumed that using those variables would be effective in such nations to monitoring and assessing desertification and land degradation. In the case of the land cover change monitoring, interestingly, the areas of barren which considered desert were fluctuated in each years. In addition, the other land covers also changing rapidly in pixel level with overall decreasing trends in savanna, grassland, forest, and barren, and increasing trends in shrubland and cropland. In the case of land change frequency, 31.7% of land area were not changed, but those area were mainly barren, savanna, and urban area. Through combining the results, boundary area of desert of North East part of Ethiopia were represented as the most vulnerable area, which means combating desertification activities would focus on among area. In addition, through monitoring land cover dynamics also useful approach to understand the land degradation area. As the future

  2. Wind energy in the United States and materials required for the land-based wind turbine industry from 2010 through 2030

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilburn, David R.

    2011-01-01

    The generation of electricity in the United States from wind-powered turbines is increasing. An understanding of the sources and abundance of raw materials required by the wind turbine industry and the many uses for these materials is necessary to assess the effect of this industry's growth on future demand for selected raw materials relative to the historical demand for these materials. The U.S. Geological Survey developed estimates of future requirements for raw (and some recycled) materials based on the assumption that wind energy will supply 20 percent of the electricity consumed in the United States by 2030. Economic, environmental, political, and technological considerations and trends reported for 2009 were used as a baseline. Estimates for the quantity of materials in typical "current generation" and "next generation" wind turbines were developed. In addition, estimates for the annual and total material requirements were developed based on the growth necessary for wind energy when converted in a wind powerplant to generate 20 percent of the U.S. supply of electricity by 2030. The results of the study suggest that achieving the market goal of 20 percent by 2030 would require an average annual consumption of about 6.8 million metric tons of concrete, 1.5 million metric tons of steel, 310,000 metric tons of cast iron, 40,000 metric tons of copper, and 380 metric tons of the rare-earth element neodymium. With the exception of neodymium, these material requirements represent less than 3 percent of the U.S. apparent consumption for 2008. Recycled material could supply about 3 percent of the total steel required for wind turbine production from 2010 through 2030, 4 percent of the aluminum required, and 3 percent of the copper required. The data suggest that, with the possible exception of rare-earth elements, there should not be a shortage of the principal materials required for electricity generation from wind energy. There may, however, be selective

  3. Assessing changes in availability of land and water for food (1960-2050) : An analysis linking food demand and available resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ibarrola Rivas, M. J.; Nonhebel, S.

    Future global food demand will require more land and water. We group the global population into six Gross Domestic Product groups and study changes in the availability of land and water for food in relation to demographic and nutrition transition theories. We show large differences in land and water

  4. Direct and indirect land use changes issues in European sustainability initiatives: State-of-the-art, open issues and future developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Stappen, Florence; Brose, Isabelle; Schenkel, Yves

    2011-01-01

    Facing climate change and growing energy prices, the use of bioenergy is continuously increasing in order to diminish greenhouse gas emissions, secure energy supply and create employment in rural areas. Because the production of biomass or biofuels, wherever it takes place, comes along with externalities, positive or negative, the need for biomass and bioenergy sustainability criteria is more than ever felt. Research on sustainability criteria and certification systems has started through several national and international initiatives. Considering the benefits of an increased use of bioenergy but also the urge for limiting potential negative environmental and socio-economic impacts, the aim of these initiatives was to make the first move regarding bioenergy sustainability, while waiting for the European legislation to regulate this crucial issue. Land use changes, whether direct or indirect, are one of the most important consequences of bioenergy production. While direct land use changes are more easily assessed locally, indirect land use changes exceed the company level and need to be considered at a global scale. Methodologies for dealing with direct and indirect land use changes are proposed among others in the European, Dutch, British and German sustainability initiatives. This paper aims at presenting and comparing those four European initiatives, with a focus on their propositions for direct and indirect land use changes assessment. Key issues are discussed and recommendations are made for steps to overcome identified difficulties in accurately assessing the effects of indirect land use change due to bioenergy production.

  5. Charging and billing in modern communications networks : A comprehensive survey of the state of the art and future requirements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kühne, R.; Huitema, G.B.; Carle, G.

    2012-01-01

    In mobile telecommunication networks the trend for an increasing heterogeneity of access networks, the convergence with fixed networks as well as with the Internet are apparent. The resulting future converged network with an expected wide variety of services and a possibly stiff competition between

  6. Charging and billing in modern communications networks : A comprehensive survey of the state of art and future requirements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuehne, Ralph; Huitema, George; Carle, George

    2012-01-01

    In mobile telecommunication networks the trend for an increasing heterogeneity of access networks, the convergence with fixed networks as well as with the Internet are apparent. The resulting future converged network with an expected wide variety of services and a possibly stiff competition between

  7. Requirements for future control room and visualisation features in the Web-of-Cells framework defined in the ELECTRA project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tornelli, Carlo; Zuelli, Roberto; Marinell, Mattia

    2017-01-01

    project, that proposes a new Web-of-Cell (WoC) power system control architecture. Dedicated visualisation features are proposed, aimed to support the control room operators activities in a WoC-oriented approach. Furthermore, the work takes into account the point of view of network operators about future...

  8. 17 CFR 1.47 - Requirements for classification of purchases or sales of contracts for future delivery as bona...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... of risk exposure attendant to the conduct and management of a commercial enterprise; (3) Contain, and... the regulations. 1.47 Section 1.47 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... trading and position limits then in effect pursuant to section 4a of the Act shall file statement with the...

  9. Final Environmental Impact Statement on 10 CFR Part 61 licensing requirements for land disposal of radioactive waste. Summary and main report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-11-01

    The three-volume final environmental impact statement (FEIS) is prepared to guide and support publication of a final regulation, 10 CFR Part 61, for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. The FEIS is prepared in response to public comments received on the draft environmental impact statement (DEIS) on the proposed Part 61 regulation. The DEIS was published in September 1981 as NUREG-0782. Public comments received on the proposed Part 61 regulation separate from the DEIS are also considered in the FEIS. The FEIS is not a rewritten version of the DEIS, which contains an exhaustive and detailed analysis of alternatives, but rather references the DEIS and presents the final decision bases and conclusions (costs and impacts) which are reflected in the Part 61 requirements. Four cases are specifically considered in the FEIS representing the following: past disposal practice, existing disposal practice, Part 61 requirements, and an upper bound example. The Summary and Main Report are contained in Volume 1. Volume 2 consists of Appendices A - Staff Analysis of Public Comments on the DEIS for 10 CFR Part 61, and Appendices B - Staff Analysis of Public Comments on Proposed 10 CFR Part 61 Rulemaking. Volume 3 contains Appendices C-F, entitled as follows: Appendix C - Revisions to Impact Analysis Methodology, Appendix D - Computer Codes Used for FEIS Calculations, Appendix E - Errata for the DEIS for 10 CFR Part 61 and last, Appendix F - Final Rule and Supplementary Information

  10. The land management perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig

    2006-01-01

    encompasses the total natural and built environment. Land Administration Systems (LAS) are institutional frameworks complicated by the tasks they must perform, by national cultural, political and judicial settings, and by technology. This paper facilitates an overall understanding of the land management......Land management is the process by which the resources of land are put into good effect. Land management encompasses all activities associated with the management of land that are required to achieve sustainable development. The concept of land includes properties and natural resources and thereby...... paradigm. In many countries, and especially developing countries and countries in transition, the national capacity to manage land rights, restrictions and responsibilities is not well developed in terms of mature institutions and the necessary human resources and skills. In this regard, the capacity...

  11. Using dynamic sustainment to determine the impact of varying levels of reliability on future combat systems maintenance requirements

    OpenAIRE

    Dozier, Pamela C.

    2006-01-01

    The primary purpose of this thesis is to provide analysis for future reliability studies. This thesis assesses the value of the Dynamic Sustainment simulation model as a logistics modeling tool and demonstrates data analysis techniques that can potentially be applied to model results. The secondary purpose is to explore the impact on the maintenance system of varying levels of platform reliability as part of an ongoing effort to provide the Office of the Secretary of Defense with credible...

  12. Region-specific study of the electric utility industry: financial history and future power requirements for the VACAR region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pochan, M.J.

    1985-07-01

    Financial data for the period 1966 to 1981 are presented for the four investor-owned electric utilities in the VACAR (Virginia-Carolinas) region. This region was selected as representative for the purpose of assessing the availability, reliability, and cost of electric power for the future in the United States. The estimated demand for power and planned additions to generating capacity for the region through the year 2000 are also given.

  13. Region-specific study of the electric utility industry: financial history and future power requirements for the VACAR region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochan, M.J.

    1985-07-01

    Financial data for the period 1966 to 1981 are presented for the four investor-owned electric utilities in the VACAR (Virginia-Carolinas) region. This region was selected as representative for the purpose of assessing the availability, reliability, and cost of electric power for the future in the United States. The estimated demand for power and planned additions to generating capacity for the region through the year 2000 are also given

  14. Understanding the land management paradigm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig

    2006-01-01

    Land management is the process by which the resources of land are put into good effect. Land management encompasses all activities associated with the management of land and natural resources that are required to achieve sustainable development. Land Administration Systems (LAS) are institutional...... structures by identifying an ideal and historically neutral LAS model for: servicing the needs of governments, business and the public; utilising the latest technologies; servicing rights, responsibilities, restrictions and risks in relation to land; and delivering much broader information about sustainable...... development towards the capacity to design, build, and manage Land Administration Systems that incorporate sustainable land policies and efficient spatial data infrastructures....

  15. Understanding the impacts of land-use policies on a threatened species: is there a future for the Bornean orang-utan?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wich, Serge A; Gaveau, David; Abram, Nicola; Ancrenaz, Marc; Baccini, Alessandro; Brend, Stephen; Curran, Lisa; Delgado, Roberto A; Erman, Andi; Fredriksson, Gabriella M; Goossens, Benoit; Husson, Simon J; Lackman, Isabelle; Marshall, Andrew J; Naomi, Anita; Molidena, Elis; Nardiyono; Nurcahyo, Anton; Odom, Kisar; Panda, Adventus; Purnomo; Rafiastanto, Andjar; Ratnasari, Dessy; Santana, Adi H; Sapari, Imam; van Schaik, Carel P; Sihite, Jamartin; Spehar, Stephanie; Santoso, Eddy; Suyoko, Amat; Tiju, Albertus; Usher, Graham; Atmoko, Sri Suci Utami; Willems, Erik P; Meijaard, Erik

    2012-01-01

    The geographic distribution of Bornean orang-utans and its overlap with existing land-use categories (protected areas, logging and plantation concessions) is a necessary foundation to prioritize conservation planning. Based on an extensive orang-utan survey dataset and a number of environmental variables, we modelled an orang-utan distribution map. The modelled orang-utan distribution map covers 155,106 km(2) (21% of Borneo's landmass) and reveals four distinct distribution areas. The most important environmental predictors are annual rainfall and land cover. The overlap of the orang-utan distribution with land-use categories reveals that only 22% of the distribution lies in protected areas, but that 29% lies in natural forest concessions. A further 19% and 6% occurs in largely undeveloped oil palm and tree plantation concessions, respectively. The remaining 24% of the orang-utan distribution range occurs outside of protected areas and outside of concessions. An estimated 49% of the orang-utan distribution will be lost if all forest outside of protected areas and logging concessions is lost. To avoid this potential decline plantation development in orang-utan habitats must be halted because it infringes on national laws of species protection. Further growth of the plantation sector should be achieved through increasing yields in existing plantations and expansion of new plantations into areas that have already been deforested. To reach this goal a large scale island-wide land-use masterplan is needed that clarifies which possible land uses and managements are allowed in the landscape and provides new standardized strategic conservation policies. Such a process should make much better use of non-market values of ecosystem services of forests such as water provision, flood control, carbon sequestration, and sources of livelihood for rural communities. Presently land use planning is more driven by vested interests and direct and immediate economic gains, rather than

  16. Understanding the Impacts of Land-Use Policies on a Threatened Species: Is There a Future for the Bornean Orang-utan?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wich, Serge A.; Gaveau, David; Abram, Nicola; Ancrenaz, Marc; Baccini, Alessandro; Brend, Stephen; Curran, Lisa; Delgado, Roberto A.; Erman, Andi; Fredriksson, Gabriella M.; Goossens, Benoit; Husson, Simon J.; Lackman, Isabelle; Marshall, Andrew J.; Naomi, Anita; Molidena, Elis; Nardiyono; Nurcahyo, Anton; Odom, Kisar; Panda, Adventus; Purnomo; Rafiastanto, Andjar; Ratnasari, Dessy; Santana, Adi H.; Sapari, Imam; van Schaik, Carel P.; Sihite, Jamartin; Spehar, Stephanie; Santoso, Eddy; Suyoko, Amat; Tiju, Albertus; Usher, Graham; Atmoko, Sri Suci Utami; Willems, Erik P.; Meijaard, Erik

    2012-01-01

    The geographic distribution of Bornean orang-utans and its overlap with existing land-use categories (protected areas, logging and plantation concessions) is a necessary foundation to prioritize conservation planning. Based on an extensive orang-utan survey dataset and a number of environmental variables, we modelled an orang-utan distribution map. The modelled orang-utan distribution map covers 155,106 km2 (21% of Borneo's landmass) and reveals four distinct distribution areas. The most important environmental predictors are annual rainfall and land cover. The overlap of the orang-utan distribution with land-use categories reveals that only 22% of the distribution lies in protected areas, but that 29% lies in natural forest concessions. A further 19% and 6% occurs in largely undeveloped oil palm and tree plantation concessions, respectively. The remaining 24% of the orang-utan distribution range occurs outside of protected areas and outside of concessions. An estimated 49% of the orang-utan distribution will be lost if all forest outside of protected areas and logging concessions is lost. To avoid this potential decline plantation development in orang-utan habitats must be halted because it infringes on national laws of species protection. Further growth of the plantation sector should be achieved through increasing yields in existing plantations and expansion of new plantations into areas that have already been deforested. To reach this goal a large scale island-wide land-use masterplan is needed that clarifies which possible land uses and managements are allowed in the landscape and provides new standardized strategic conservation policies. Such a process should make much better use of non-market values of ecosystem services of forests such as water provision, flood control, carbon sequestration, and sources of livelihood for rural communities. Presently land use planning is more driven by vested interests and direct and immediate economic gains, rather than by

  17. Understanding the impacts of land-use policies on a threatened species: is there a future for the Bornean orang-utan?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serge A Wich

    Full Text Available The geographic distribution of Bornean orang-utans and its overlap with existing land-use categories (protected areas, logging and plantation concessions is a necessary foundation to prioritize conservation planning. Based on an extensive orang-utan survey dataset and a number of environmental variables, we modelled an orang-utan distribution map. The modelled orang-utan distribution map covers 155,106 km(2 (21% of Borneo's landmass and reveals four distinct distribution areas. The most important environmental predictors are annual rainfall and land cover. The overlap of the orang-utan distribution with land-use categories reveals that only 22% of the distribution lies in protected areas, but that 29% lies in natural forest concessions. A further 19% and 6% occurs in largely undeveloped oil palm and tree plantation concessions, respectively. The remaining 24% of the orang-utan distribution range occurs outside of protected areas and outside of concessions. An estimated 49% of the orang-utan distribution will be lost if all forest outside of protected areas and logging concessions is lost. To avoid this potential decline plantation development in orang-utan habitats must be halted because it infringes on national laws of species protection. Further growth of the plantation sector should be achieved through increasing yields in existing plantations and expansion of new plantations into areas that have already been deforested. To reach this goal a large scale island-wide land-use masterplan is needed that clarifies which possible land uses and managements are allowed in the landscape and provides new standardized strategic conservation policies. Such a process should make much better use of non-market values of ecosystem services of forests such as water provision, flood control, carbon sequestration, and sources of livelihood for rural communities. Presently land use planning is more driven by vested interests and direct and immediate economic

  18. The ecology and management of moist mixed-conifer forests in eastern Oregon and Washington: a synthesis of the relevant biophysical science and implications for future land management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter Stine; Paul Hessburg; Thomas Spies; Marc Kramer; Christopher J. Fettig; Andrew Hansen; John Lehmkuhl; Kevin O' Hara; Karl Polivka; Peter Singleton; Susan Charnley; Andrew Merschel; Rachel. White

    2014-01-01

    Land managers in the Pacific Northwest have reported a need for updated scientific information on the ecology and management of mixed-conifer forests east of the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington. Of particular concern are the moist mixed-conifer forests, which have become drought-stressed and vulnerable to high-severity fire after decades of human disturbances...

  19. Towards an integrated global framework to assess the impacts of land use and management change on soil carbon: current capability and future vision

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smith, P.; Davies, C.A.; Ogle, S.; Zanchi, G.; Bellarby, J.; Bird, N.; Boddey, R.M.; McNamara, N.P.; Powlson, D.; Cowie, A.; Noordwijk, van M.; Davis, S.C.; Richter, de D.B.; Kryzanowski, L.; Wijk, van M.T.; Stuart, J.; Kirton, A.; Eggar, D.; Newton_Cross, G.; Adhya, T.K.; Braimoh, A.K.

    2012-01-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 methodologies commonly underpin project-scale carbon accounting for changes in land use and management and are used in frameworks for Life Cycle Assessment and carbon footprinting of food and energy crops. These methodologies were intended for

  20. Final Report. EU project Olivero: The future of olive plantation systems on sloping and mountainous land; scenarios for production and natural resource conservation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fleskens, L.; Stroosnijder, L.; Graaff, de J.

    2006-01-01

    Since Roman times, the olive orchards on sloping and mountainous land in Southern Europe have formed a major source of income and employment, with the production systems being economically and environmentally sustainable. This situation has now been disturbed by factors such as migration,

  1. Monitoring Urban Land Cover/land Use Change in Algiers City Using Landsat Images (1987-2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchachi, B.; Zhong, Y.

    2017-09-01

    Monitoring the Urban Land Cover/Land Use change detection is important as one of the main driving forces of environmental change because Urbanization is the biggest changes in form of Land, resulting in a decrease in cultivated areas. Using remote sensing ability to solve land resources problems. The purpose of this research is to map the urban areas at different times to monitor and predict possible urban changes, were studied the annual growth urban land during the last 29 years in Algiers City. Improving the productiveness of long-term training in land mapping, were have developed an approach by the following steps: 1) pre-processing for improvement of image characteristics; 2) extract training sample candidates based on the developed methods; and 3) Derive maps and analyzed of Algiers City on an annual basis from 1987 to 2016 using a Supervised Classifier Support Vector Machine (SVMs). Our result shows that the strategy of urban land followed in the region of Algiers City, developed areas mostly were extended to East, West, and South of Central Regions. The urban growth rate is linked with National Office of Statistics data. Future studies are required to understand the impact of urban rapid lands on social, economy and environmental sustainability, it will also close the gap in data of urbanism available, especially on the lack of reliable data, environmental and urban planning for each municipality in Algiers, develop experimental models to predict future land changes with statistically significant confidence.

  2. Adaption of the LHC cold mass cooling system to the requirements of the Future Circular Collider (FCC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnig, C.; Tavian, L.; Brenn, G.

    2017-12-01

    The cooling of the superconducting magnet cold masses with superfluid helium (He II) is a well-established concept successfully in operation for years in the LHC. Consequently, its application for the cooling of FCC magnets is an obvious option. The 12-kW heat loads distributed over 10-km long sectors not only require an adaption of the magnet bayonet heat exchangers but also present new challenges to the cryogenic plants, the distribution system and the control strategy. This paper recalls the basic LHC cooling concept with superfluid helium and defines the main parameters for the adaption to the FCC requirements. Pressure drop and hydrostatic head are developed in the distribution and pumping systems; their impact on the magnet temperature profile and the corresponding cooling efficiency is presented and compared for different distribution and pumping schemes.

  3. 36 CFR 254.3 - Requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...; consolidation of split estates; expansion of communities; accommodation of existing or planned land use... required to exchange any Federal lands. Land exchanges are discretionary, voluntary real estate...

  4. Harmonization of Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100: 600 Years of Global Gridded Annual Land-Use Transitions, Wood Harvest, and Resulting Secondary Lands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve; Betts, Richard; Feddema, Johannes; Fischer, Gavin M.; Fisk, J.P.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Houghton, R. A.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Jones, C.; Kindermann, G.; Kinoshita, Tsuguki; Goldeweijk, Kees K.; Riahi, Keywan; Shevliakova, Elena; Smith, Steven J.; Stehfest, Eike; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, P.; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wang, Y.

    2011-08-08

    In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESM) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al., 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs.

  5. Coupled social and ecological outcomes of land use change and agricultural intensification in Costa Rica and the future of biodiversity conservation in tropical agricultural regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanfiorenzo, A. R.; Shaver, I.; Chain Guadarrama, A.; Cleary, K.; Santiago-Garcia, R.; Finegan, B.; Hormel, L.; Sibelet, N.; Vierling, L. A.; Bosque-Perez, N.; DeClerck, F.; Fagan, M. E.; Waits, L.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical ecosystem conversion to agriculture has caused widespread habitat loss and created fragmented landscapes composed of remnant forest patches embedded in a matrix of agricultural land uses. Non- traditional agricultural export (NTAE) crops such as pineapple are rapidly replacing multiuse landscapes characterized by a diverse matrix of pasture and smallholder crops with intensive, large-scale, monoculture plantations. Using an interdisciplinary approach, we conduct a case study to examine the coupled social and ecological implications of LUCC and agricultural intensification in this region, with larger application to regions experiencing similar patterns. Guided by frameworks from both political and landscape ecology, we: (1) describe the social and economic implications of pineapple expansion, specifically the concentration of land, labor and financial resources, (2) quantify pineapple cultivation's spatial characteristics, and (3) assess the effects of pineapple expansion on surrounding forest ecosystems, on the agricultural matrix and on biodiversity conservation. Our results indicate that pineapple production concentrates land, labor, and financial resources, which has a homogenizing effect on the agricultural economy in the study region. This constrains farm-based livelihoods, with larger implications for food security and agricultural diversity. Landscape ecology analyses further reveal how pineapple production simplifies and homogenizes the agricultural matrix between forest patches, which is likely to have a negative effect on biodiversity. To offset the effects of pineapple expansion on social and environmental systems, we recommend developing landscape level land use planning capacity. Furthermore, agricultural and conservation policy reform is needed to promote landscape heterogeneity and economic diversity within the agricultural sector. Our interdisciplinary research provides a detailed examination of the social and ecological impacts of

  6. Making media work in space: an interdisciplinary perspective on media and communication requirements for current and future space communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babidge, S.; Cokley, J.; Gordon, F.; Louw, E.

    2005-10-01

    As humans expand into space communities will form. These have already begun to form in small ways, such as long-duration missions on the International Space Station and the space shuttle, and small-scale tourist excursions into space. Social, behavioural and communications data emerging from such existing communities in space suggest that the physically-bounded, work-oriented and traditionally male-dominated nature of these extremely remote groups present specific problems for the resident astronauts, groups of them viewed as ‘communities’, and their associated groups who remain on Earth, including mission controllers, management and astronauts’ families. Notionally feminine group attributes such as adaptive competence, social adaptation skills and social sensitivity will be crucial to the viability of space communities and in the absence of gender equity, ‘staying in touch’ by means of ‘news from home’ becomes more important than ever. A template of news and media forms and technologies is suggested to service those needs and enhance the social viability of future terraforming activities.

  7. The impact of land use on carbon and climate in the preindustrial Holocene: What have we learned and what are the priorities for future research?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, E. C.; Kaplan, J. O.

    2015-12-01

    Did humans affect global climate over the before the Industrial Era? While this question is hotly debated, the co-evolution of humans and the natural environment over the last 11,700 years had an undisputed role in influencing the development and present state of terrestrial ecosystems. Yet we still have a very incomplete picture of human-environment interactions over the Holocene. In order to address this lack of understanding, both bottom-up and top-down approaches have been used to reconstruct past human impact on the global carbon cycle and climate. Top-down approaches rely on the analysis of the concentrations and isotopic signature of trace gases trapped in polar ice to identify human contributions to atmospheric composition. Bottom-up approaches combine historical and archaeological data to reconstruct land use, and using these reconstructions drive earth system models that simulate carbon cycling and climate. Recently a number of studies, both top-down and bottom-up, have shed new light on the role of land use influencing the carbon cycle and climate over the preindustrial Holocene. Ice core studies generally suggested that late Holocene CO2 was driven by natural fluctuations in climate and ocean circulation. The evidence from bottom-up studies is more nuanced. Most scenarios of Holocene anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) tend to agree in the net magnitude of deforestation at AD 1850. But ALCC scenarios vary widely in the timing of deforestation over the course of the preindustrial Holocene. These differences lead to multiple plausible explanations to the atmospheric composition record, including scenarios that allow for a substantial amount of anthropogenic deforestation in preindustrial time. Uncertainty in our understanding of preindustrial ALCC also leads to large differences in the estimated importance of land use on climate earlier in the Holocene. For example, modelling experiments performed for Europe representing conditions at the peak of the

  8. Reconciling food production and biodiversity conservation: land sharing and land sparing compared.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phalan, Ben; Onial, Malvika; Balmford, Andrew; Green, Rhys E

    2011-09-02

    The question of how to meet rising food demand at the least cost to biodiversity requires the evaluation of two contrasting alternatives: land sharing, which integrates both objectives on the same land; and land sparing, in which high-yield farming is combined with protecting natural habitats from conversion to agriculture. To test these alternatives, we compared crop yields and densities of bird and tree species across gradients of agricultural intensity in southwest Ghana and northern India. More species were negatively affected by agriculture than benefited from it, particularly among species with small global ranges. For both taxa in both countries, land sparing is a more promising strategy for minimizing negative impacts of food production, at both current and anticipated future levels of production.

  9. A framework for benchmarking land models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Q. Luo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Land models, which have been developed by the modeling community in the past few decades to predict future states of ecosystems and climate, have to be critically evaluated for their performance skills of simulating ecosystem responses and feedback to climate change. Benchmarking is an emerging procedure to measure performance of models against a set of defined standards. This paper proposes a benchmarking framework for evaluation of land model performances and, meanwhile, highlights major challenges at this infant stage of benchmark analysis. The framework includes (1 targeted aspects of model performance to be evaluated, (2 a set of benchmarks as defined references to test model performance, (3 metrics to measure and compare performance skills among models so as to identify model strengths and deficiencies, and (4 model improvement. Land models are required to simulate exchange of water, energy, carbon and sometimes other trace gases between the atmosphere and land surface, and should be evaluated for their simulations of biophysical processes, biogeochemical cycles, and vegetation dynamics in response to climate change across broad temporal and spatial scales. Thus, one major challenge is to select and define a limited number of benchmarks to effectively evaluate land model performance. The second challenge is to develop metrics of measuring mismatches between models and benchmarks. The metrics may include (1 a priori thresholds of acceptable model performance and (2 a scoring system to combine data–model mismatches for various processes at different temporal and spatial scales. The benchmark analyses should identify clues of weak model performance to guide future development, thus enabling improved predictions of future states of ecosystems and climate. The near-future research effort should be on development of a set of widely acceptable benchmarks that can be used to objectively, effectively, and reliably evaluate fundamental properties

  10. Impact resistance of materials for guards on cutting machine tools--requirements in future European safety standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mewes, D; Trapp, R P

    2000-01-01

    Guards on machine tools are meant to protect operators from injuries caused by tools, workpieces, and fragments hurled out of the machine's working zone. This article presents the impact resistance requirements, which guards according to European safety standards for machine tools must satisfy. Based upon these standards the impact resistance of different guard materials was determined using cylindrical steel projectiles. Polycarbonate proves to be a suitable material for vision panels because of its high energy absorption capacity. The impact resistance of 8-mm thick polycarbonate is roughly equal to that of a 3-mm thick steel sheet Fe P01. The limited ageing stability, however, makes it necessary to protect polycarbonate against cooling lubricants by means of additional panes on both sides.

  11. Experimental scale and dimensionality requirements for reproducing and studying coupled land-atmosphere-vegetative processes in the intermediate scale laboratory settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautz, Andrew; Illangasekare, Tissa; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Helmig, Rainer; Heck, Katharina

    2016-04-01

    Past investigations of coupled land-atmosphere-vegetative processes have been constrained to two extremes, small laboratory bench-scale and field scale testing. In recognition of the limitations of studying the scale-dependency of these fundamental processes at either extreme, researchers have recently begun to promote the use of experimentation at intermediary scales between the bench and field scales. A requirement for employing intermediate scale testing to refine heat and mass transport theory regarding land-atmosphere-vegetative processes is high spatial-temporal resolution datasets generated under carefully controlled experimental conditions in which both small and field scale phenomena can be observed. Field experimentation often fails these criteria as a result of sensor network limitations as well as the natural complexities and uncertainties introduced by heterogeneity and constantly changing atmospheric conditions. Laboratory experimentation, which is used to study three-dimensional (3-D) processes, is often conducted in 2-D test systems as a result of space, instrumentation, and cost constraints. In most flow and transport problems, 2-D testing is not considered a serious limitation because the bypassing of flow and transport due to geo-biochemical heterogeneities can still be studied. Constraining the study of atmosphere-soil-vegetation interactions to 2-D systems introduces a new challenge given that the soil moisture dynamics associated with these interactions occurs in three dimensions. This is an important issue that needs to be addressed as evermore intricate and specialized experimental apparatuses like the climate-controlled wind tunnel-porous media test system at CESEP are being constructed and used for these types of studies. The purpose of this study is to therefore investigate the effects of laboratory experimental dimensionality on observed soil moisture dynamics in the context of bare-soil evaporation and evapotranspiration

  12. Ten years of multiple data stream assimilation with the ORCHIDEE land surface model to improve regional to global simulated carbon budgets: synthesis and perspectives on directions for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peylin, P. P.; Bacour, C.; MacBean, N.; Maignan, F.; Bastrikov, V.; Chevallier, F.

    2017-12-01

    Predicting the fate of carbon stocks and their sensitivity to climate change and land use/management strongly relies on our ability to accurately model net and gross carbon fluxes. However, simulated carbon and water fluxes remain subject to large uncertainties, partly because of unknown or poorly calibrated parameters. Over the past ten years, the carbon cycle data assimilation system at the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement has investigated the benefit of assimilating multiple carbon cycle data streams into the ORCHIDEE LSM, the land surface component of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Earth System Model. These datasets have included FLUXNET eddy covariance data (net CO2 flux and latent heat flux) to constrain hourly to seasonal time-scale carbon cycle processes, remote sensing of the vegetation activity (MODIS NDVI) to constrain the leaf phenology, biomass data to constrain "slow" (yearly to decadal) processes of carbon allocation, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations to provide overall large scale constraints on the land carbon sink. Furthermore, we have investigated technical issues related to multiple data stream assimilation and choice of optimization algorithm. This has provided a wide-ranging perspective on the challenges we face in constraining model parameters and thus better quantifying, and reducing, model uncertainty in projections of the future global carbon sink. We review our past studies in terms of the impact of the optimization on key characteristics of the carbon cycle, e.g. the partition of the northern latitudes vs tropical land carbon sink, and compare to the classic atmospheric flux inversion approach. Throughout, we discuss our work in context of the abovementioned challenges, and propose solutions for the community going forward, including the potential of new observations such as atmospheric COS concentrations and satellite-derived Solar Induced Fluorescence to constrain the gross carbon fluxes of the ORCHIDEE

  13. Land use and demographic grids in Cosyma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, C.A.; Hasemann, I.

    1991-01-01

    The spatial distribution of the population, agricultural production, economic activity, and the position of land and sea, are important elements of accident consequence codes. These data are necessary in evaluating the health effects within the population arising from the external dose, inhalation and ingestion pathways. These distributions are also essential in calculating the economic impact of implementing countermeasures, such as relocation and food bans. This paper includes a discussion of the agricultural production and population distribution information available for EC countries, their resolution, availability and sources. The gridded data included in the COSYMA system are described. Particular aspects, such as the difficulties involved with using economic land use information, are also explained. Future developments, and their effect on the requirements for land use and demographic grids, are outlined

  14. The Future of Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frankel, Christian; Ossandón, José

    2013-01-01

    Review of Elena Esposito: The Future of Futures. The Time of Money in Financing and Society Cheltenham. Edward Elgar, 2011.......Review of Elena Esposito: The Future of Futures. The Time of Money in Financing and Society Cheltenham. Edward Elgar, 2011....

  15. Land Suitability Assessment in the Catchment Area of Four Southwestern Atlantic Coastal Lagoons: Multicriteria and Optimization Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Gallego, Lorena; Achkar, Marcel; Conde, Daniel

    2012-07-01

    In the present study, a land suitability assessment was conducted in the basin of four Uruguayan coastal lagoons (Southwestern Atlantic) to analyze the productive development while minimizing eutrophication, biodiversity loss and conflicts among different land uses. Suitable land for agriculture, forest, livestock ranching, tourism and conservation sectors were initially established based on a multi-attribute model developed using a geographic information system. Experts were consulted to determine the requirements for each land use sector and the incompatibilities among land use types. The current and potential conflicts among incompatible land use sectors were analyzed by overlapping land suitability maps. We subsequently applied a multi-objective model where land (pixels) with similar suitability was clustered into "land suitability groups", using a two-phase cluster analysis and the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally, a linear programming optimization procedure was applied to allocate land use sectors into land suitable groups, maximizing total suitability and minimizing interference among sectors. Results indicated that current land use overlapped by 4.7 % with suitable land of other incompatible sectors. However, the suitable land of incompatible sectors overlapped in 20.3 % of the study area, indicating a high potential for the occurrence of future conflict. The highest competition was between agriculture and conservation, followed by forest and agriculture. We explored scenarios where livestock ranching and tourism intensified, and found that interference with conservation and agriculture notably increased. This methodology allowed us to analyze current and potential land use conflicts and to contribute to the strategic planning of the study area.

  16. Harmonisation of Global Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100 for IPCC-AR5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve; Betts, Richard; Feddema, Johannes; Fischer, Guenther; Goldeweijk, Kees K.; Hibbard, K.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Jones, Chris; Kindermann, G.; Kinoshita, Tsuguki; Riahi, Keywan; Shevliakova, Elena; Smith, Steven J.; Stehfest, Eike; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, Peter; van Vuuren, Detlef; Wang, Yingping

    2009-06-01

    In preparation for the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate change assessment (IPCC-AR5), the international community is developing new advanced computer models (CMs) to address the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land-use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being developed by four Integrated Assessment Modeling teams (IAMs) to be used as input to the CMs for future climate projections. The diversity of requirements and approaches among CMs and IAMs for tracking land-use changes (past, present, and future), presents major challenges for treating land-use comprehensively and consistently between these communities. As part of an international working group, we have been working to meet these challenges by developing a "harmonized" set of land-use change scenarios that smoothly connects gridded historical reconstructions of land-use with future projections, in a format required by CMs. This approach to harmonizing the treatment of land-use between two key modeling communities, CMs and IAMs, represents a major advance that will facilitate more consistent and fuller treatments of land-use/land-use change effects including both CO2 emissions and corresponding land-surface changes.

  17. Future survival requires competitive skills

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adam, P.J.

    1996-10-01

    The companies that will succeed in the global power business in 25 years will be those that best understand the productivity implications of the current power game. In the competitive free market for electricity, the inefficient will be driven out. This will include the developer that is unable to achieve higher productivity in developing and financing projects, the engineer-constructor that longs for the old risk-free, cost-plus environment and the trading company that fails to enter into new relationships with the most productive companies in the world. Also in jeopardy will be the operator who can`t reduce O and M costs and the manufacturer who is unable to control overhead or labor costs. Succeeding will be all about productivity. Free market competition drives productivity improvement. In a competitive environment, companies must operate at a more efficient level. The US learned this accidentally through the Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act, getting us a side benefit of free market competition and lower electricity prices. In other countries the practice of socialism and its final bankruptcy forced adjustments to free market policies.

  18. Competency Based Future Leadership Requirements

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Horey, Jeffrey

    2004-01-01

    .... A competency framework that is used consistently throughout the force and that focuses on the functions of leadership will help align training, development, and performance management processes...

  19. Land Cover

    Data.gov (United States)

    Kansas Data Access and Support Center — The Land Cover database depicts 10 general land cover classes for the State of Kansas. The database was compiled from a digital classification of Landsat Thematic...

  20. The emerging land management paradigm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig

    encompasses the total natural and built environment. Land Administration Systems (LAS) are institutional frameworks complicated by the tasks they must perform, by national cultural, political and judicial settings, and by technology. This paper facilitates an overall understanding of the land management......Land management is the process by which the resources of land are put into good effect. Land management encompasses all activities associated with the management of land that are required to achieve sustainable development. The concept of land includes properties and natural resources and thereby...... for comprehensive information about environmental conditions in combination with other land related data. It is argued that development of such a model is important or even necessary for facilitating a holistic approach to the management of land as the key asset of any nation or jurisdiction. Finally, the paper...

  1. Meeting the future metro network challenges and requirements by adopting programmable S-BVT with direct-detection and PDM functionality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadal, Laia; Svaluto Moreolo, Michela; Fàbrega, Josep M.; Vílchez, F. Javier

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, we propose an advanced programmable sliceable-bandwidth variable transceiver (S-BVT) with polarization division multiplexing (PDM) capability as a key enabler to fulfill the requirements for future 5G networks. Thanks to its cost-effective optoelectronic front-end based on orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) technology and direct-detection (DD), the proposed S-BVT becomes suitable for next generation highly flexible and scalable metro networks. Polarization beam splitters (PBSs) and controllers (PCs), available on-demand, are included at the transceivers and at the network nodes, further enhancing the system flexibility and promoting an efficient use of the spectrum. 40G-100G PDM transmission has been experimentally demonstrated, within a 4-node photonic mesh network (ADRENALINE testbed), implementing a simplified equalization process.

  2. MODERN LAND MANAGEMENT UKRAINE: CONCEPT, ESSENCE, TRENDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tretiak Anton

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Modern transformations prevailing inUkrainein the sphere of land relations and the use and protection of land are critical and require changes without final rozrushennya existing system of land management, the reform and a new understanding of the nature and forms of modern land management. Given that land management is a fundamental mechanism for land management and land use, in our opinion its reform and development should be seen in close relationship with the development of management system. Problems in the theory of management of land resources, especially its main land managers in different socio-economic communities is extremely important because the efficiency of its operation is not the most important in the economic relations of land ownership. However, for more than 25 years the implementation of land reform inUkrainegovernment has not decided as of model management and land management systems. Functioning system of land management and land use inUkraineon a "top - down" is derived from the authoritarian system of the state, theSoviet Unionand there is not a market. Similarly unchanged system of land management, which is why the task was made research its current state for further scientific studies integrated management system. It is studied modern land management in Ukraine and proved the concept and essence of contemporary land in Ukraine as a multifunctional system, which requires besides the concepts of "social land management", "economy of land", "legal land management", "technical land management", such as "environmental land management", " innovation in land management", "cadastral land management", "ecological and economic land management". A new concept of land as the overall socio-economic, environmental measures and organizational, legal and technical actions aimed at regulating land relations and rational organization of the territory of the administrative-territorial entities, entities committed under the influence of

  3. Simulating Everglades Carbon Fluxes and GHG Emission of Different Landscapes Under Present and Future Climate Conditions by Applying Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Y.; Gerber, S.

    2016-12-01

    Carbon flux in wetland distinguishes from that in other types of ecosystems due to special soil and hydrological processes. Understanding the dynamic of soil hydrology is necessary to explore the responses of the plants, the fate of massive carbon storage and greenhouse gas emissions under different climate conditions. However, contrary findings were published regarding the relationship between CO2 emission and water level variations. Both positive and negative conclusions were reached regarding the warming mitigation ability of wetland. By parameterizing the Community Land Model (CLM), our research focuses on simulating the CO2/CH4 fluxes of different landscapes in Everglades, a subtropical wetland in Florida, to explore the following questions: 1) Is it a sink or source for CO2? 2) How may the CO2/CH4 dynamics be altered with water table and soil water content? 3) What environmental factors mainly control CO2/CH4 process? 4) Does this ecosystem contribute or mitigate cliamte warming? 5) What is the difference between landscapes regarding the CO2/CH4 dynamic? We performed several simulations with CLM that address the variation of water table in soil layers and the elevated temperature to compare the impact on the carbon fluxes and GHG emission in the study area. Our results suggest the variation on water table depth has significant influence on the carbon cycle in Everglades. Deeper water table results in a higher CO2 but lower CH4 emission, partly due to the CH4 oxidization and the rapid decomposition of organic carbon. In the wet season, more CH4 is produced when the water table is shallower. Slightly elevated temperature causes a water loss through evapotranspiration which deepens the water table. However, the induced carbon loss is partly offset by the enhanced productivity of vegetation. Both long and short hydroperiod marshes are small carbon sinks in most of years but cannot mitigate the climate warming if considering CH4 emissions. Cypress swamp shows high

  4. BECCS and Sustainable Land-Use in Mitigation Pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in the future socio-economic scenarios to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative fossil fuel emissions in the end of the 21st century. Large scale use of BECCS implies certain amount of additional production of biofuels, which could potentially cause substantial carbon emissions from the land-use change. Developing sustainable low carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications involving the large scale BECCS. In this study, we use a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model to evaluate effects of land-use change in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative fossil fuel emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target used in CMIP5 future climate change analysis. We also run a global crop model to examine BECCS attainability in the land-use scenario with a consideration of future fertilizer and irrigation use options. In the evaluation, we consider the deployment of bioenergy with both first-generation and second-generation biofuels. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crop production would not be sufficient to achieve the required BECCS of RCP2.6 scenario even in the high fertilizer and irrigation use cases. It would require more than doubling the area for bioenergy crops production around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large scale land-use changes that emit significant amount of carbon from deforestation. To reduce the potential land-use change emissions, optimal use of second-generation biofuel crops are discussed.

  5. Underpinning Land Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig

    This paper provides an overall understanding of the concept of land administration systems for dealing with rights, restrictions and responsibilities in future spatially enabled government. Further, the paper presents the role of FIG with regard to building the capacity in this area and responding...

  6. LandIT Database

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iftikhar, Nadeem; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2010-01-01

    and reporting purposes. This paper presents the LandIT database; which is result of the LandIT project, which refers to an industrial collaboration project that developed technologies for communication and data integration between farming devices and systems. The LandIT database in principal is based...... on the ISOBUS standard; however the standard is extended with additional requirements, such as gradual data aggregation and flexible exchange of farming data. This paper describes the conceptual and logical schemas of the proposed database based on a real-life farming case study....

  7. Biotechnological Advances for Restoring Degraded Land for Sustainable Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Vishal; Edrisi, Sheikh Adil; Chen, Bin; Gupta, Vijai K; Vilu, Raivo; Gathergood, Nicholas; Abhilash, P C

    2017-09-01

    Global land resources are under severe threat due to pollution and unsustainable land use practices. Restoring degraded land is imperative for regaining ecosystem services, such as biodiversity maintenance and nutrient and water cycling, and to meet the food, feed, fuel, and fibre requirements of present and future generations. While bioremediation is acknowledged as a promising technology for restoring polluted and degraded lands, its field potential is limited for various reasons. However, recent biotechnological advancements, including producing efficient microbial consortia, applying enzymes with higher degrees of specificity, and designing plants with specific microbial partners, are opening new prospects in remediation technology. This review provides insights into such promising ways to harness biotechnology as ecofriendly methods for remediation and restoration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Sequence and function of basic helix-loop-helix proteins required for stomatal development in Arabidopsis are deeply conserved in land plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacAlister, Cora A; Bergmann, Dominique C

    2011-01-01

    Stomata are a broadly conserved feature of land plants with a crucial role regulating transpiration and gas exchange between the plant and atmosphere. Stereotyped cell divisions within a specialized cell lineage of the epidermis generate stomata and define the pattern of their distribution. The behavior of the stomatal lineage varies in its detail among different plant groups, but general features include asymmetric cell divisions and an immediate precursor (the guard mother cell [GMC]) that divides symmetrically to form the pair of cells that will differentiate into the guard cells. In Arabidopsis, the closely related basic helix-loop-helix (bHLH) subgroup Ia transcription factors SPEECHLESS, MUTE, and FAMA promote asymmetric divisions, the acquisition of GMC identity and guard cell differentiation, respectively. Genome sequence data indicate that these key positive regulators of stomatal development are broadly conserved among land plants. While orthologies can be established among individual family members within the angiosperms, more distantly related groups contain subgroup Ia bHLHs of unclear affinity. We demonstrate group Ia members from the moss Physcomitrella patens can partially complement MUTE and FAMA and recapitulate gain of function phenotypes of group Ia genes in multiple steps in the stomatal lineage in Arabidopsis. Our data are consistent with a mechanism whereby a multifunctional transcription factor underwent duplication followed by specialization to provide the three (now nonoverlapping) functions of the angiosperm stomatal bHLHs. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Nuclear energy research initiative, an overview of the cooperative program for the risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritterbusch, Stanley E.

    2000-01-01

    EPRI sstudies have shown that nuclear plant capital costs will have to decrease by about 35% to 40% to be competitive with fossil-generated electricity in the Unite States. Also, the ''first concrete'' to fuel load construction schedule will have to be decreased to less than 40 months. Therefore, the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiate the Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (NERI) and ABB CENP proposed a cooperative program with Sandia National Laboratory (SNL) and Duke Engineering and Services (DE and S) to begin an innovative research effort to drastically cut the cost of new nuclear power plant construction for the U. S. de-regulated market place. This program was approved by the DOE through three separate but coordinated ''cooperative agreements.'' They are the ''Risk-Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants'' (Risk-Informed NPP), the ''Smart Nuclear Power Plant Program'' (Smart-NPP), and ''Design, Procure, Construct, Install and Test'' (DPCIT) Program. DOE funded the three cooperative agreements at a level of $2.6 million for the first year of the program. Funding for the complete program is durrently at a level $6.9 million, however, ABB CENP and all partners anticipate that the scope of the NERI program will be increased as a result of the overall importance of NERI to the U. S. Government. The Risk-Informed NPP program, which is aimed at revising costly regularory and design requirements without reducing overall plant safety, has two basic tasks: ''development of Risk-Informed Methods'' and ''strengthening the Reliability Database.'' The overall objective of the first task is to develop a scientific, risk-informed approach for identifying and simplifying deterministic industry standards, regulatory requirements, and safety systems that do not significantly contribute to nuclear power plant reliability and safety. The second basic task is to develop a means for strengthening the reliability database

  10. Variations in the Use of Resources for Food: Land, Nitrogen Fertilizer and Food Nexus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María José Ibarrola-Rivas

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Future dietary changes will increase the global demand for agricultural resources per person. Food production requires several resources which are interrelated: land, water, nutrients and energy. Other studies have calculated the per capita requirements of only one resource (nitrogen or land. In this paper, we combine several parameters (diets, production systems and nitrogen-land trade-off in one analysis in order to provide a more integrated assessment of the impacts of the use of agricultural resources for food. We estimated the trade-off between the per capita use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer and crop land. With our methodology, we are able to identify separately the impacts of the type of diet and of the type of production system. We use national level data of five countries as examples of global extremes: from extensive to highly intensive systems, and from very basic diets to very affluent diets. The present differences in diets and production systems result in large differences in the per capita use of resources which ranges from 3 to 30 kg of nitrogen fertilizer use per person, and from 1800 to 4500 m2 of arable land use per person. As the results show, in 2050, the average per capita availability of crop land will not be enough to produce food for affluent diets with present production systems. Our results are useful to assess future requirements of nitrogen fertilizer for the limited land available on the planet.

  11. Future Irrigation Requirement of Rice Under Irrigated Area - Uncertainty through GCMs and Crop Models : A Case Study of Indo-Gangetic Plains of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillai, S. N.; Singh, H.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. G.; Porter, C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Panwar, A. S.

    2017-12-01

    Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), the food basket of South Asia, characterised by predominantly cereal-based farming systems where livestock is an integral part of farm economy. Climate change is projected to have significant effects on agriculture production and hence on food and livelihood security because more than 90 per cent farmers fall under small and marginal category. The rising temperatures and uncertainties in rainfall associated with global warming may have serious direct and indirect impacts on crop production. A loss of 10-40% crop production is predicted in different crops in India by the end of this century by different researchers. Cereal crops (mainly rice and wheat) are crucial to ensuring the food security in the region, but sustaining their productivity has become a major challenge due to climate variability and uncertainty. Under AgMIP Project, we have analysed the climate change impact on farm level productivity of rice at Meerut District, Uttar Pradesh using 29 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during mid-century period 2041-2070. Two crop simulation models DSSAT4.6 and APSIM7.7 were used for impact study. There is lot of uncertainty in yield level by different GCMs and crop models. Under RCP4.5, APSIM showed a declining yield up to 14.5 % while DSSAT showed a declining yield level of 6.5 % only compared to the baseline (1980-2010). However, out of 29 GCMs, 15 GCMs showed negative impact and 14 showed positive impact under APSIM while it showed 21 and 8 GCMs, respectively in the case of DSSAT. DSSAT and APSIM simulated irrigation water requirement in future of the order of 645±75 mm and 730±107 mm, respectively under RCP4.5. However, the same will be of the order of 626 ± 99 mm and 749 ± 147 mm, respectively under RCP8.5. Projected irrigation water productivity showed a range of 4.87-12.15 kg ha-1 mm-1 and 6.77-12.63 kg ha-1 mm-1 through APSIM and DSSAT, respectively under RCP4.5, which stands an average of 7.81 and 8.53 kg ha-1 mm-1 during the

  12. Teams at Their Core: Implementing an “All LANDS Approach to Conservation” Requires Focusing on Relationships, Teamwork Process, and Communications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasey R. Jacobs

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The U.S. Forest Service has found itself in an era of intense human activity, a changing climate; development and loss of open space; resource consumption; and problematic introduced species; and diversity in core beliefs and values. These challenges test our task-relevant maturity and the ability and willingness to meet the growing demands for services. The Forest Service is now on a transformative campaign to improve abilities and meet these challenges. The “All-Lands Approach to Conservation” brings agencies, organizations, landowners and stakeholders together across boundaries to decide on common goals for the landscapes they share. This approach is part of a larger transformation occurring in the American Conservation Movement where large-scale conservation partnerships possibly define the fourth or contemporary era. The intent of this communication is to present one perspective of what large-scale conservation partnerships should include, namely an emphasis on rethinking what leadership looks like in a collaborative context, relational governance, cooperative teamwork procedures, and communications.

  13. Allegheny County Municipal Land Use Ordinances

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — Many municipalities have their own land use ordinances and establish standards and requirements for land use and development in that municipality. This dataset is...

  14. Multimedia Modeling System Response to Regional Land Management Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooter, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    A multi-media system of nitrogen and co-pollutant models describing critical physical and chemical processes that cascade synergistically and competitively through the environment, the economy and society has been developed at the USEPA Office of Research and Development. It is populated with linked or fully coupled models that address nutrient research questions such as, "How might future policy, climate or land cover change in the Mississippi River Basin affect Nitrogen and Phosphorous loadings to the Gulf of Mexico" or, "What are the management implications of regional-scale land management changes for the sustainability of air, land and water quality?" This second question requires explicit consideration of economic (e.g. sector prices) and societal (e.g. land management) factors. Metrics that illustrate biosphere-atmosphere interactions such as atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations, atmospheric N loading to surface water, soil organic N and N percolation to groundwater are calculated. An example application has been completed that is driven by a coupled agricultural and energy sector model scenario. The economic scenario assumes that by 2022 there is: 1) no detectable change in weather patterns relative to 2002; 2) a concentration of stover processing facilities in the Upper Midwest; 3) increasing offshore Pacific and Atlantic marine transportation; and 4) increasing corn, soybean and wheat production that meets future demand for food, feed and energy feedstocks. This production goal is reached without adding or removing agricultural land area whose extent is defined by the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 2002v2011 classes 81 and 82. This goal does require, however, crop shifts and agricultural management changes. The multi-media system response over our U.S. 12km rectangular grid resolution analysis suggests that there are regions of potential environmental and health costs, as well as large areas that could experience unanticipated environmental and health

  15. Land use and urban morphology parameters for Vienna required for initialisation of the urban canopy model TEB derived via the concept of "local climate zones"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimmel, Heidelinde; Weihs, Philipp; Oswald, Sandro M.; Masson, Valéry; Schoetter, Robert

    2017-04-01

    Urban settlements are generally known for their high fractions of impermeable surfaces, large heat capacity and low humidity compared to rural areas which results in the well known phenomena of urban heat islands. The urbanized areas are growing which can amplify the intensity and frequency of situations with heat stress. The distribution of the urban heat island is not uniform though, because the urban environment is highly diverse regarding its morphology as building heights, building contiguity and configuration of open spaces and trees vary, which cause changes in the aerodynamic resistance for heat transfers and drag coefficients for momentum. Furthermore cities are characterized by highly variable physical surface properties as albedo, emissivity, heat capacity and thermal conductivity. The distribution of the urban heat island is influenced by these morphological and physical parameters as well as the distribution of unsealed soil and vegetation. These aspects influence the urban climate on micro- and mesoscale. For larger Vienna high resolution vector and raster geodatasets were processed to derive land use surface fractions and building morphology parameters on block scale following the methodology of Cordeau (2016). A dataset of building age and typology was cross checked and extended using satellite visual and thermal bands and linked to a database joining building age and typology with typical physical building parameters obtained from different studies (Berger et al. 2012 and Amtmann M and Altmann-Mavaddat N (2014)) and the OIB (Österreichisches Institut für Bautechnik). Using dominant parameters obtained using this high resolution mainly ground based data sets (building height, built area fraction, unsealed fraction, sky view factor) a local climate zone classification was produced using an algorithm. The threshold values were chosen according to Stewart and Oke (2012). This approach is compared to results obtained with the methodology of Bechtel et

  16. METHODOLOGICAL BASIS IMPOSING RESTRICTIONS IN LAND USE, BURDENED LAND RIGHTS DURING LAND TENURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorosh J.

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The question of balanced consolidation of social legislation in a reasonable ratio of land rights and the interests of society as a whole, as well as local communities, citizens and legal entities established by them are general in nature and require specificity it is. Proved that one way of solving this problem is the establishment of restoictions of land rights, restrictions in land use. However, the mechanism of regulation establishment, implementation and termination of restrictions on the rights to land are not very functional and needs improvement. Current legislation in Ukraine does not contain a balanced set of regulations that would determine the nature and objectives of the restrictions, including encumbrances of land rights, their types, the reasons establishing and implementing restrictions of ownership and other rights to land and so on. Based on our analysis, we provide scientifically grounded suggestions on improving the legal framework, particularly, in terms of restrictions on land use and registration in the land management process, as an important means of influence on those rights in order to ensure rational land use and protection it is. Proved that the efficiency of administrative decisions during setting restrictions on land use purpose and usage of land is possible on the basis of land zoning, thus, it is necessary to adopt the Law of Ukraine "On land zoning." In addition, the current classification of land use restrictions, which was proposed by prominent scientists in Ukraine AM Tretyak (classification of restrictions in land use by functional features, and D.S. Dobryak and D.I. Babmindra (classification of restrictions on land use based on their placement by owners and land users, is complemented by types, namely: legal, environmental, ecological, technological, sanitation, urban and special. In the result of scientific studies,we have proposed a model of methodological process of land management actions on formation

  17. Energy and land use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-12-01

    This report addresses the land use impacts of past and future energy development and summarizes the major federal and state legislation which influences the potential land use impacts of energy facilities and can thus influence the locations and timing of energy development. In addition, this report describes and presents the data which are used to measure, and in some cases, predict the potential conflicts between energy development and alternative uses of the nation's land resources. The topics section of this report is divided into three parts. The first part describes the myriad of federal, state and local legislation which have a direct or indirect impact upon the use of land for energy development. The second part addresses the potential land use impacts associated with the extraction, conversion and combustion of energy resources, as well as the disposal of wastes generated by these processes. The third part discusses the conflicts that might arise between agriculture and energy development as projected under a number of DOE mid-term (1990) energy supply and demand scenarios.

  18. Science and Measurement Requirements for a Plant Physiology and Functional Types Mission: Measuring the Composition, Function and Health of Global Land and Coastal Ocean Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Robert O.; Rogez, Francois; Green, Rob; Ungar, Steve; Knox, Robert; Asner, Greg; Muller-Karger, Frank; Bissett, Paul; Chekalyuk, Alex; Dierssen, Heidi; hide

    2007-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the proposed Plant Physiology and Functional Types (PPFT) Mission. The National Academy of Sciences Decadal Survey, placed a critical priority on a Mission to observe distribution and changes in ecosystem functions. The PPFT satellite mission provides the essential measurements needed to assess drivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystem services that affect human welfare. The presentation reviews the science questions that the mission will be designed to answer, the science rationale, the science measurements, the mission concept, the planned instrumentation, the calibration method, and key signal to noise ratios and uniformity requirements.

  19. Predicting land cover using GIS, Bayesian and evolutionary algorithm methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitkenhead, M J; Aalders, I H

    2009-01-01

    Modelling land cover change from existing land cover maps is a vital requirement for anyone wishing to understand how the landscape may change in the future. In order to test any land cover change model, existing data must be used. However, often it is not known which data should be applied to the problem, or whether relationships exist within and between complex datasets. Here we have developed and tested a model that applied evolutionary processes to Bayesian networks. The model was developed and tested on a dataset containing land cover information and environmental data, in order to show that decisions about which datasets should be used could be made automatically. Bayesian networks are amenable to evolutionary methods as they can be easily described using a binary string to which crossover and mutation operations can be applied. The method, developed to allow comparison with standard Bayesian network development software, was proved capable of carrying out a rapid and effective search of the space of possible networks in order to find an optimal or near-optimal solution for the selection of datasets that have causal links with one another. Comparison of land cover mapping in the North-East of Scotland was made with a commercial Bayesian software package, with the evolutionary method being shown to provide greater flexibility in its ability to adapt to incorporate/utilise available evidence/knowledge and develop effective and accurate network structures, at the cost of requiring additional computer programming skills. The dataset used to develop the models included GIS-based data taken from the Land Cover for Scotland 1988 (LCS88), Land Capability for Forestry (LCF), Land Capability for Agriculture (LCA), the soil map of Scotland and additional climatic variables.

  20. Present Status and Prospect of Ultra High Strength Steel Applied to Aircraft Landing Gear

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHAO Bo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the domestic and overseas current status of the steel applied to aircraft landing gear in combination of the design concept and requirements for aircraft landing gear. The application features and concept of the steel used for landing gear are summarized and the domestic and overseas status are compared. For the moment, the low-alloy ultra-high strength steel and high-alloy ultra-high strength steel are all being used in the material system for aircraft landing gear steel, and the complete technical system for its anti-fatigue manufacturing is built. At present, China's development and application of high strength steel applied to aircraft landing gear is at the world advanced level. At last, the prospect for future development is analyzed.

  1. Site Study Plan for land use, Deaf Smith County site, Texas: Environmental Field Program: Preliminary draft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-06-01

    The Land Use Site Study Plan describes a field program consisting of characterization of the site; seismic survey rights-of-way and transportation and utility corridors, the vicinity, the region, future land use, and monitoring land-use change. Aerial photography will be used to characterize the site, seismic rows and transportation and utility corridors, and the vicinity. The resulting land-use maps and overlays will then be verified in the field. Interviews with farm managers and local experts will provide additional information. A Geographic Information System (GIS) and satellite imagery will be used to characterize the region, monitor land-use change, and provide information to assist with the future land use study. The site study plan describes the study design and rationale, the filed data collection procedures and equipment, the data analysis methods and application of results, the data management strategy, the schedule of field activities, the personnel requirements and management of the study, and the study's quality assurance program. The directives and requirements that drive these studies are derived from the Salt Repository Project Requirements Document. 51 refs; 6 figs; 3 tabs

  2. Synthesis in land change science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Magliocca, Nicholas R.; Rudel, Thomas K.; Verburg, Peter H.

    2015-01-01

    of these changes, land change science (LCS) draws on a wide array synthetic and meta-study techniques to generate global and regional knowledge from local case studies of land change. Here, we review the characteristics and applications of synthesis methods in LCS and assess the current state of synthetic research...... based on a meta-analysis of synthesis studies from 1995 to 2012. Publication of synthesis research is accelerating, with a clear trend toward increasingly sophisticated and quantitative methods, including meta-analysis. Detailed trends in synthesis objectives, methods, and land change phenomena......, synthesis methods based on local case studies will remain essential for generating systematic global and regional understanding of local land change for the foreseeable future, and multiple opportunities exist to accelerate and enhance the reliability of synthetic LCS research in the future. Demand...

  3. Forecasting land cover change impacts on drinking water treatment costs in Minneapolis, Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woznicki, S. A.; Wickham, J.

    2017-12-01

    Source protection is a critical aspect of drinking water treatment. The benefits of protecting source water quality in reducing drinking water treatment costs are clear. However, forecasting the impacts of environmental change on source water quality and its potential to influence future treatment processes is lacking. The drinking water treatment plant in Minneapolis, MN has recognized that land cover change threatens water quality in their source watershed, the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Over 1,000 km2 of forests, wetlands, and grasslands in the UMRB were lost to agriculture from 2008-2013. This trend, coupled with a projected population increase of one million people in Minnesota by 2030, concerns drinking water treatment plant operators in Minneapolis with respect to meeting future demand for clean water in the UMRB. The objective of this study is to relate land cover change (forest and wetland loss, agricultural expansion, urbanization) to changes in treatment costs for the Minneapolis, MN drinking water utility. To do this, we first developed a framework to determine the relationship between land cover change and water quality in the context of recent historical changes and projected future changes in land cover. Next we coupled a watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to projections of land cover change from the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model for the mid-21st century. Using historical Minneapolis drinking water treatment data (chemical usage and costs), source water quality in the UMRB was linked to changes in treatment requirements as a function of projected future land cover change. These analyses will quantify the value of natural landscapes in protecting drinking water quality and future treatment processes requirements. In addition, our study provides the Minneapolis drinking water utility with information critical to their planning and capital improvement process.

  4. Challenges and opportunities in mapping land use intensity globally

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuemmerle, Tobias; Erb, Karlheinz; Meyfroidt, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    Future increases in land-based production will need to focus more on sustainably intensifying existing production systems. Unfortunately, our understanding of the global patterns of land use intensity is weak, partly because land use intensity is a complex, multidimensional term, and partly becau...... challenges and opportunities for mapping land use intensity for cropland, grazing, and forestry systems, and identify key issues for future research.......Future increases in land-based production will need to focus more on sustainably intensifying existing production systems. Unfortunately, our understanding of the global patterns of land use intensity is weak, partly because land use intensity is a complex, multidimensional term, and partly because...... we lack appropriate datasets to assess land use intensity across broad geographic extents. Here, we review the state of the art regarding approaches for mapping land use intensity and provide a comprehensive overview of available global-scale datasets on land use intensity. We also outline major...

  5. Can We Power Future Mars Missions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balint, Tibor S.; Sturm, Erick J., II; Woolley, Ryan C.; Jordan, James F.

    2006-01-01

    The Vision for Space Exploration identified the exploration of Mars as one of the key pathways. In response, NASAs Mars Program Office is developing a detailed mission lineup for the next decade that would lead to future explorations. Mission architectures for the next decade include both orbiters and landers. Existing power technologies, which could include solar panels, batteries, radioisotope power systems, and in the future fission power, could support these missions. Second and third decade explorations could target human precursor and human in-situ missions, building on increasingly complex architectures. Some of these could use potential feed forward from earlier Constellation missions to the Moon, discussed in the ESAS study. From a potential Mars Sample Return mission to human missions the complexity of the architectures increases, and with it the delivered mass and power requirements also amplify. The delivered mass at Mars mostly depends on the launch vehicle, while the landed mass might be further limited by EDL technologies, including the aeroshell, parachutes, landing platform, and pinpoint landing. The resulting in-situ mass could be further divided into payload elements and suitable supporting power systems. These power systems can range from tens of watts to multi-kilowatts, influenced by mission type, mission configuration, landing location, mission duration, and season. Regardless, the power system design should match the power needs of these surface assets within a given architecture. Consequently, in this paper we will identify potential needs and bounds of delivered mass and architecture dependent power requirements to surface assets that would enable future in-situ exploration of Mars.

  6. Low-Level Burial Grounds dangerous waste permit application: Request for exemption from lined trench requirements and from land disposal restrictions for residual liquid at 218-E-12B Burial Ground Trench 94

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-10-01

    This document has been prepared and is being submitted to the respective agencies to satisfy three objectives of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office (DOE-RL) concerning Trench 94 of the 218-E-12B Burial Ground. The 218-E-12B Burial Ground is located in the 200 East Area of the Hanford Facility. Figure 1-1 shows the general location of the Hanford Site. The 218-E-12B Burial Ground is one of eight burial grounds included in the Low-Level Burial Grounds (LLBG), a treatment, storage and/or disposal (TSD) unit. Decommissioned, defueled naval submarine reactor compartments (SRCs) contain radioactivity caused by exposure of structural components to neutrons during normal operation of the submarines. After all the alternatives were evaluated in the US Department of the Navy 1984 environmental impact statement (EIS) (USN 1984), land burial of the SRCs was selected as the preferred disposal option. The SRCs currently are sent to Trench 94 of the 218-E-12B Burial Ground. In addition to radioactivity, the SRCs disposed in. The DOE-RL's three objectives in preparing and submitting this document are as follows. Request from Ecology an exemption from dangerous waste landfill liner and leachate collection and removal system (hereinafter referred to as liner/leachate system) requirements for Trench 94 of the 218-E-12B Burial Ground. Petition Ecology to exempt residual liquid in the SRCs from land disposal restrictions. Obtain EPA Region 10 review and comment on the request to Ecology for exemption from liner/leachate system requirements

  7. Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Zhang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Land use and land cover change have received considerable attention from global researchers in recent decades. The conflicts between different development strategies for land uses have become a problem that urgently needs to be solved, especially in those regions with a fragile ecological environment. The development of scenario simulations is essential in order to highlight possible alternative pathways for the future under the backgrounds of urbanization, economic growth and ecological protection. This study simulated land use changes for Tekes in 2020 with the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S model under a ‘business as usual’ scenario, cropland protection scenario, ecological security scenario, and artificial modification scenario. The results indicated that the spatial patterns of the land use types were explained well by the environment variables, and the selected models had a satisfactory accuracy in this study. The requirements and the patterns were quite different owing to the variation of the major objectives of the four scenarios. In addition to the constraint rules of the land use transformation, the hot point for land use change was its spatial coherency. Areas near to an existing land use type were more likely to transform to that type than those farther away. The increased cropland and urban land were mainly located around the current cropland and urban land while forests and grassland were more likely to occur in places with flat terrain and good hydrological conditions. The results could contribute to better insight into the relationships between land use changes and their driving factors and provide a scientific basis for regional management strategies and sustainable land use development.

  8. Report on audit of the US Department of Energy's identification and disposal of nonessential land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    This document presents the results of an audit of four US DOE facilities to determine whether any land holdings are excess to current and anticipated future needs. Facilities audited were the Hanford Site, the Oak Ridge Reservation, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, and the Brookhaven Laboratory. Audit findings were that 309,000 acres at the Hanford, Oak Ridge, and Idaho sites were not essential to carrying out current and foreseeable mission requirements. It is recommended that the DOE dispose of the nonessential land holdings, reevaluate requirements for remaining land holdings and dispose of any additional nonessential land, and reevaluate the policy of defining ecosystem management as a valid basis for retaining Department real property. 2 tabs

  9. TRENDS OF LAND SYSTEM IN UKRAINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Tretiak

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The organization of land use in different countries is characterized by a variety of land system types, those proved their effectiveness in certain countries, but not are necessarily as effective in others. The objective factors that led to the emergence of various models of the land system, include socio-economic, historical, ethnic, cultural, natural and other features of different countries and peoples that inhabit them. During 1991-2016 years,Ukraineestablished basics of a new land order and the respective land relations and the system of market-oriented land use, especially in agriculture. It is characterized by: a new legal and regulatory framework, different types of ownership of land and other natural resources, a multi-structure and paid land use, providing public with land parcels, initiated the establishment of a market-oriented system of state land cadastre, including registration of land parcels and rights to them. So, modern land transformations in Ukraine, which laid the basics of a new land order, requires the development of new approaches to land use management at different hierarchical levels of general land planning throughout the country. It caused by many reasons. Primarily: setting the state boundaries and bounds of administrative units; development of different types of land ownership; increased numbers of new landowning and land tenure of citizens, enterprises, institutions and associations up to more than 23 million; need for separation of state and municipal property for land; establishment of payment for land use; specification of legal and functional status of land and of various restrictions, encumbrances and easements to each individual land parcel. It is hard to overemphasize the importance of work on land-use planning at different hierarchical levels and general land management in modern conditions. Particularly acute need of land planning in urban and agricultural land use sectors of the country. Thus, the

  10. Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Christopher M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Pidgeon, Anna M.

    2015-01-01

    Land-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.

  11. Аccounting and methodological aspects of capital expenditure for land improvement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.P. Melnychuk

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The article highlights the process of reflection in accounting the capital costs for land improvement. The main legislation governing this issue is covered. Also the article has agreed the key issues that ensure in accounting for capital expenditures for farmland improving. The survey has benefited such general scientific methods as: induction and deduction, dialectic, historical and systematic methods and specific methods of accounting. Due to the land reform the ownership of the land was changed. Lands which were owned by farms have been privatized and have received a particular owner. Now privatized lands constitute a significant part of farmland. The land managers require quality accounting information about composition and state of the land and improvements that occur to make an effective management. The numerous changes in legislation generate controversies in their interpretation and, consequently, it results in appearance of the discrepancies in the conduct of cost accounting for capital land improvement which will effect on the amount of net profit in future. The article reflects the economic substance of the process and fundamentally describes the implementation method of accounting for capital expenditure for land in accordance with the applicable law.

  12. Harmonized Constraints in Software Engineering and Acquisition Process Management Requirements are the Clue to Meet Future Performance Goals Successfully in an Environment of Scarce Resources

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Reich, Holger

    2008-01-01

    This MBA project investigates the importance of correctly deriving requirements from the capability gap and operational environment, and translating them into the processes of contracting, software...

  13. Open and reproducible global land use classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nüst, Daniel; Václavík, Tomáš; Pross, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    Researchers led by the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental research (UFZ) developed a new world map of land use systems based on over 30 diverse indicators (http://geoportal.glues.geo.tu-dresden.de/stories/landsystemarchetypes.html) of land use intensity, climate and environmental and socioeconomic factors. They identified twelve land system archetypes (LSA) using a data-driven classification algorithm (self-organizing maps) to assess global impacts of land use on the environment, and found unexpected similarities across global regions. We present how the algorithm behind this analysis can be published as an executable web process using 52°North WPS4R (https://wiki.52north.org/bin/view/Geostatistics/WPS4R) within the GLUES project (http://modul-a.nachhaltiges-landmanagement.de/en/scientific-coordination-glues/). WPS4R is an open source collaboration platform for researchers, analysts and software developers to publish R scripts (http://www.r-project.org/) as a geo-enabled OGC Web Processing Service (WPS) process. The interoperable interface to call the geoprocess allows both reproducibility of the analysis and integration of user data without knowledge about web services or classification algorithms. The open platform allows everybody to replicate the analysis in their own environments. The LSA WPS process has several input parameters, which can be changed via a simple web interface. The input parameters are used to configure both the WPS environment and the LSA algorithm itself. The encapsulation as a web process allows integration of non-public datasets, while at the same time the publication requires a well-defined documentation of the analysis. We demonstrate this platform specifically to domain scientists and show how reproducibility and open source publication of analyses can be enhanced. We also discuss future extensions of the reproducible land use classification, such as the possibility for users to enter their own areas of interest to the system and

  14. Identifying the ICT challenges of the Agri-Food sector to define the Architectural Requirements for a Future Internet Core Platform

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brewster, C.A.; Wolfert, J.; Sundmaeker, H.

    2012-01-01

    This paper discusses the specific challenges of the agri-food sector in the light of research carried out in the SmartAgriFood project. Using questionnaires and focus groups, our research identifies a number of business needs and drivers which enable the identification of suitable Future Internet

  15. The architecture challenge: Future artificial-intelligence systems will require sophisticated architectures, and knowledge of the brain might guide their construction

    OpenAIRE

    Baldassarre, Gianluca; Santucci, Vieri Giuliano; Cartoni, Emilio; Caligiore, Daniele

    2017-01-01

    In this commentary, we highlight a crucial challenge posed by the proposal of Lake et al. to introduce key elements of human cognition into deep neural networks and future artificial-intelligence systems: the need to design effective sophisticated architectures. We propose that looking at the brain is an important means of facing this great challenge.

  16. The flexibility requirements for power plants with CCS in a future energy system with a large share of intermittent renewable energy sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, A. S.; van den Broek, M.; Seebregts, A.; Faaij, A. P. C.

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates flexibility issues of future low-carbon power systems. The short-term power system impacts of intermittent renewables are identified and roughly quantified based on a review of wind integration studies. Next, the flexibility parameters of three types of power plants with CO2

  17. Land suitability assessment in the catchment area of four Southwestern Atlantic coastal lagoons: multicriteria and optimization modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Gallego, Lorena; Achkar, Marcel; Conde, Daniel

    2012-07-01

    In the present study, a land suitability assessment was conducted in the basin of four Uruguayan coastal lagoons (Southwestern Atlantic) to analyze the productive development while minimizing eutrophication, biodiversity loss and conflicts among different land uses. Suitable land for agriculture, forest, livestock ranching, tourism and conservation sectors were initially established based on a multi-attribute model developed using a geographic information system. Experts were consulted to determine the requirements for each land use sector and the incompatibilities among land use types. The current and potential conflicts among incompatible land use sectors were analyzed by overlapping land suitability maps. We subsequently applied a multi-objective model where land (pixels) with similar suitability was clustered into "land suitability groups", using a two-phase cluster analysis and the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally, a linear programming optimization procedure was applied to allocate land use sectors into land suitable groups, maximizing total suitability and minimizing interference among sectors. Results indicated that current land use overlapped by 4.7 % with suitable land of other incompatible sectors. However, the suitable land of incompatible sectors overlapped in 20.3 % of the study area, indicating a high potential for the occurrence of future conflict. The highest competition was between agriculture and conservation, followed by forest and agriculture. We explored scenarios where livestock ranching and tourism intensified, and found that interference with conservation and agriculture notably increased. This methodology allowed us to analyze current and potential land use conflicts and to contribute to the strategic planning of the study area.

  18. Land-Use Change and Bioenergy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-07-01

    This publication describes the Biomass Program’s efforts to examine the intersection of land-use change and bioenergy production. It describes legislation requiring land-use change assessments, key data and modeling challenges, and the research needs to better assess and understand the impact of bioenergy policy on land-use decisions.

  19. 10 CFR 61.59 - Institutional requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Institutional requirements. 61.59 Section 61.59 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) LICENSING REQUIREMENTS FOR LAND DISPOSAL OF RADIOACTIVE WASTE Technical Requirements for Land Disposal Facilities § 61.59 Institutional requirements. (a) Land ownership...

  20. Living Lands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Suna Møller

    2015-01-01

    in West Greenland were carried out when it was hunting season for mux ox and caribou, exploring relations between education and perception of environment. All these trips have called for attention to the relation between actual engagement with ‘nature’ and experienced human-nature relations. Based on my......, hunters attended to questions like safe-journeying on ice or the role of natural surroundings in children’s education, in ways revealing a relational perception of ‘nature’ and dissolving culture-nature dualisms. Hunters’ experiences in living the land afforded children a dwelling position from which...... to grow with the features of the land. Framed this way, ‘nature’ was regarded as part of the social world. I suggest that learning among Arctic hunters is social and twofold. First, we can learn how human-environment relations influence individual life trajectories. Secondly, ‘nature’ as part...

  1. Finding pathways to national-scale land-sector sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Lei; Bryan, Brett A.

    2017-04-01

    The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets under Agenda 2030 of the United Nations map a coherent global sustainability ambition at a level of detail general enough to garner consensus amongst nations. However, achieving the global agenda will depend heavily on successful national-scale implementation, which requires the development of effective science-driven targets tailored to specific national contexts and supported by strong national governance. Here we assess the feasibility of achieving multiple SDG targets at the national scale for the Australian land-sector. We scaled targets to three levels of ambition and two timeframes, then quantitatively explored the option space for target achievement under 648 plausible future environmental, socio-economic, technological and policy pathways using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) integrated land systems model. We show that target achievement is very sensitive to global efforts to abate emissions, domestic land-use policy, productivity growth rate, and land-use change adoption behaviour and capacity constraints. Weaker target-setting ambition resulted in higher achievement but poorer sustainability outcomes. Accelerating land-use dynamics after 2030 changed the targets achieved by 2050, warranting a longer-term view and greater flexibility in sustainability implementation. Simultaneous achievement of multiple targets is rare owing to the complexity of sustainability target implementation and the pervasive trade-offs in resource-constrained land systems. Given that hard choices are needed, the land-sector must first address the essential food/fibre production, biodiversity and land degradation components of sustainability via specific policy pathways. It may also contribute to emissions abatement, water and energy targets by capitalizing on co-benefits. However, achieving targets relevant to the land-sector will also require substantial contributions from other sectors such as clean energy, food systems

  2. Finding pathways to national-scale land-sector sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Lei; Bryan, Brett A

    2017-04-12

    The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets under Agenda 2030 of the United Nations map a coherent global sustainability ambition at a level of detail general enough to garner consensus amongst nations. However, achieving the global agenda will depend heavily on successful national-scale implementation, which requires the development of effective science-driven targets tailored to specific national contexts and supported by strong national governance. Here we assess the feasibility of achieving multiple SDG targets at the national scale for the Australian land-sector. We scaled targets to three levels of ambition and two timeframes, then quantitatively explored the option space for target achievement under 648 plausible future environmental, socio-economic, technological and policy pathways using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) integrated land systems model. We show that target achievement is very sensitive to global efforts to abate emissions, domestic land-use policy, productivity growth rate, and land-use change adoption behaviour and capacity constraints. Weaker target-setting ambition resulted in higher achievement but poorer sustainability outcomes. Accelerating land-use dynamics after 2030 changed the targets achieved by 2050, warranting a longer-term view and greater flexibility in sustainability implementation. Simultaneous achievement of multiple targets is rare owing to the complexity of sustainability target implementation and the pervasive trade-offs in resource-constrained land systems. Given that hard choices are needed, the land-sector must first address the essential food/fibre production, biodiversity and land degradation components of sustainability via specific policy pathways. It may also contribute to emissions abatement, water and energy targets by capitalizing on co-benefits. However, achieving targets relevant to the land-sector will also require substantial contributions from other sectors such as clean energy, food systems

  3. Comparison and Analysis of Regulatory and Derived Requirements for Certain DOE Spent Nuclear Fuel Shipments; Lessons Learned for Future Spent Fuel Transportation Campaigns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, George L.; Fawcett, Rick L.; Rieke, Philip C.

    2003-01-01

    Radioactive materials transportation is stringently regulated by the Department of Transportation and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to protect the public and the environment. As a Federal agency, however, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must seek State, Tribal and local input on safety issues for certain transportation activities. This interaction has invariably resulted in the imposition of extra-regulatory requirements, greatly increasing transportation costs and delaying schedules while not significantly enhancing the level of safety. This paper discusses the results an analysis of the regulatory and negotiated requirements established for a July 1998 shipment of spent nuclear fuel from foreign countries through the west coast to the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). Staff from the INEEL Nuclear Materials Engineering and Disposition Department undertook the analysis in partnership with HMTC, to discover if there were instances where requirements derived from stakeholder interactions duplicate, contradict, or otherwise overlap with regulatory requirements. The study exhaustively lists and classifies applicable Department of Transportation (DOT) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations. These are then compared with a similarly classified list of requirements from the Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) and those developed during stakeholder negotiations. Comparison and analysis reveals numerous attempts to reduce transportation risk by imposing more stringent safety measures than those required by DOT and NRC. These usually took the form of additional inspection, notification and planning requirements. There are also many instances of overlap with, and duplication of regulations. Participants will gain a greater appreciation for the need to understand the risk-oriented basis of the radioactive materials regulations and their effectiveness in ensuring safety when negotiating extra-regulatory requirements

  4. Regulating services as measures of ecological resilience on DoD lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angermeier, Paul; Villamagna, Amy M.

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of the capacity and flow of ecosystem services can help DoD land managers make decisions that enhance cost-effectiveness, minimize environmental damage, and maximize resources available for military missions. We demonstrated a methodology to quantify and map selected regulating services (RS), which helps land managers envision tradeoffs. Our objectives were to 1) estimate current capacity of and demand for selected RS within DoD lands, 2) examine the effects of future DoD land management and climate changes on the capacity and flow of these RS, and 3) project how land-use and climate changes in nearby lands affect future demand for RS. Our approach incorporates widely accepted models and equations, remote sensing, GIS analysis, and stakeholder involvement. Required data include land cover/use, soil type, precipitation, and air temperature. We integrated data into the a) Surface Curve Number Method and b) Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation to estimate capacity of sediment, nitrogen (N) and surface-water regulation. Capacities and flows of RS vary greatly across landscapes and are likely to vary as climate changes or development occurs. Analyses of RS capacity and flow can help managers and planners prioritize actions in the context of best management practices and compatible use buffers. Staff surveys indicated that our approach was informative and easy to use. Implementation may be most limited by on-installation personnel time.

  5. Land under pressure: soil conservation concerns and opportunities for Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sonneveld, B.G.J.S.; Keyzer, M.A.

    2003-01-01

    This paper evaluates the future impact of soil degradation on national food security and land occupation in Ethiopia. It applies a spatial optimization model that maximizes national agricultural revenues under alternative scenarios of soil conservation, land accessibility and technology. The

  6. Climate Impacts of Deforestation/Land-Use Changes in Central South America in the PRECIS Regional Climate Model: Mean Precipitation and Temperature Response to Present and Future Deforestation Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Canziani, Pablo O.; Carbajal Benitez, Gerardo

    2012-01-01

    Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961–2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated....

  7. Participatory Land Administration on Customary Lands: A Practical VGI Experiment in Nanton, Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwabena Asiama

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Land information is one of the basic requirements for land management activities such as land consolidation. However, the dearth of land information on customary lands limits the development and application of land consolidation. This paper presents and discusses the results of an experiment carried out to test the potential of participatory land administration applied on customary lands in support of land consolidation. A brief overview of the evolution of crowdsourced, voluntary, and participatory approaches is provided alongside newly related insights into neogeography and neo-cadastre, and fit-for-purpose and pro-poor land administration. The concept of participatory land administration is then developed in this context. The area of the experiment is in Northern Ghana where the process was developed together with the local farming community. The study involved collecting land information relating to farms over a two-week period, using a mobile app and a satellite image, based on participatory land administration. The results show that Participatory Land Administration can potentially support land consolidation, though further investigation is needed on how it can be integrated into the formal land registration system, into an actual land consolidation project.

  8. Using the FORE-SCE model to project land-cover change in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry; Sayler, Kristi L.

    2008-01-01

    A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit current and projected land-use and land-cover data. The southeastern United States has experienced massive land-use change since European settlement and continues to experience extremely high rates of forest cutting, significant urban development, and changes in agricultural land use. Forest-cover patterns and structure are projected to change dramatically in the southeastern United States in the next 50 years due to population growth and demand for wood products [Wear, D.N., Greis, J.G. (Eds.), 2002. Southern Forest Resource Assessment. General Technical Report SRS-53. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Asheville, NC, 635 pp]. Along with our climate partners, we are examining the potential effects of southeastern U.S. land-cover change on regional climate. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973-2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States, providing ecoregion-by-ecoregion estimates of the rates of change, descriptive transition matrices, and changes in landscape metrics. The FORecasting SCEnarios of future land-cover (FORE-SCE) model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land-cover change through 2050 for the southeastern United States. Prescriptions for future proportions of land cover for this application were provided by ecoregion-based extrapolations of historical change. Logistic regression was used to develop relationships between suspected drivers of land-cover change and land cover, resulting in the development of probability-of-occurrence surfaces for each unique land-cover type. Forest stand age was initially established with Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and tracked through model iterations. The spatial allocation procedure placed patches of new land cover on the landscape until the scenario

  9. Future probabilities of coastal floods in Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellikka, Havu; Leijala, Ulpu; Johansson, Milla M.; Leinonen, Katri; Kahma, Kimmo K.

    2018-04-01

    Coastal planning requires detailed knowledge of future flooding risks, and effective planning must consider both short-term sea level variations and the long-term trend. We calculate distributions that combine short- and long-term effects to provide estimates of flood probabilities in 2050 and 2100 on the Finnish coast in the Baltic Sea. Our distributions of short-term sea level variations are based on 46 years (1971-2016) of observations from the 13 Finnish tide gauges. The long-term scenarios of mean sea level combine postglacial land uplift, regionally adjusted scenarios of global sea level rise, and the effect of changes in the wind climate. The results predict that flooding risks will clearly increase by 2100 in the Gulf of Finland and the Bothnian Sea, while only a small increase or no change compared to present-day conditions is expected in the Bothnian Bay, where the land uplift is stronger.

  10. Application of the global Land-Potential Knowledge System (LandPKS) mobile apps to land degradation, restoration and climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Combatting land degradation, promoting restoration and adapting to climate change all require an understanding of land potential. A global Land-Potential Knowledge System (LandPKS) is being developed that will address many of these limitations using an open source approach designed to allow anyone w...

  11. Finite land resources and competition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haberl, Helmut; Mbow, Cheikh; Deng, Xiangzheng

    2014-01-01

    strongly between the different types of land-use competition. They are associated with important trade-offs and high uncertainty. Institutional aspects related to land-use competition are discussed using a conceptual model that distinguishes types of institutions (government, private, community) as well...... as their functions (objectives, distribution/ equity, effectiveness/efficiency). Analysis of long-term trajectories suggests that land-use competition is likely to intensify in the medium- to long-term future, mainly in the face of expected scarcities in resource supply (e.g., in terms of limited resources...... and energy systems, “ land architecture” (i.e., the significance of spatial confi gurations), and multiscale models to assess local-global connections and impacts....

  12. The emerging land management paradigm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig

    2006-01-01

    Manchet: This paper was first presented by Professor Enemark at the RICS Christmas Lecture in December last year. It provides a cogent and detailed reference point for the current state of land management in developed countries, charts a course for the future and looks at how education must chang...... to meet the new paradigm....

  13. Climate impacts of deforestation/land-use changes in Central South America in the PRECIS regional climate model: mean precipitation and temperature response to present and future deforestation scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canziani, Pablo O; Carbajal Benitez, Gerardo

    2012-01-01

    Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961-2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960-2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia.

  14. Toward an energy surety future.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tatro, Marjorie L.; Jones, Scott A.; Covan, John Morgan; Kuswa, Glenn W.; Menicucci, David F.; Robinett, Rush D. III (.; )

    2005-10-01

    Because of the inevitable depletion of fossil fuels and the corresponding release of carbon to the environment, the global energy future is complex. Some of the consequences may be politically and economically disruptive, and expensive to remedy. For the next several centuries, fuel requirements will increase with population, land use, and ecosystem degradation. Current or projected levels of aggregated energy resource use will not sustain civilization as we know it beyond a few more generations. At the same time, issues of energy security, reliability, sustainability, recoverability, and safety need attention. We supply a top-down, qualitative model--the surety model--to balance expenditures of limited resources to assure success while at the same time avoiding catastrophic failure. Looking at U.S. energy challenges from a surety perspective offers new insights on possible strategies for developing solutions to challenges. The energy surety model with its focus on the attributes of security and sustainability could be extrapolated into a global energy system using a more comprehensive energy surety model than that used here. In fact, the success of the energy surety strategy ultimately requires a more global perspective. We use a 200 year time frame for sustainability because extending farther into the future would almost certainly miss the advent and perfection of new technologies or changing needs of society.

  15. Probability-based hazard avoidance guidance for planetary landing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Xu; Yu, Zhengshi; Cui, Pingyuan; Xu, Rui; Zhu, Shengying; Cao, Menglong; Luan, Enjie

    2018-03-01

    Future landing and sample return missions on planets and small bodies will seek landing sites with high scientific value, which may be located in hazardous terrains. Autonomous landing in such hazardous terrains and highly uncertain planetary environments is particularly challenging. Onboard hazard avoidance ability is indispensable, and the algorithms must be robust to uncertainties. In this paper, a novel probability-based hazard avoidance guidance method is developed for landing in hazardous terrains on planets or small bodies. By regarding the lander state as probabilistic, the proposed guidance algorithm exploits information on the uncertainty of lander position and calculates the probability of collision with each hazard. The collision probability serves as an accurate safety index, which quantifies the impact of uncertainties on the lander safety. Based on the collision probability evaluation, the state uncertainty of the lander is explicitly taken into account in the derivation of the hazard avoidance guidance law, which contributes to enhancing the robustness to the uncertain dynamics of planetary landing. The proposed probability-based method derives fully analytic expressions and does not require off-line trajectory generation. Therefore, it is appropriate for real-time implementation. The performance of the probability-based guidance law is investigated via a set of simulations, and the effectiveness and robustness under uncertainties are demonstrated.

  16. Reclamation of lands disturbed by mining activities in Bulgaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Kirilov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. Disturbed by the mining industry area in Bulgaria is about 24.113 ha of which only 8.253 ha are reclaimed. Reclamation of disturbed areas covers a complex of engineering, technical, ameliorative, agricultural, forestry and other activities, which aim at restoration of the disturbed terrains and their re-entry into economic turnover in accordance with environmental conditions and area landscape. All disturbed lands as well as their adjacen