Livestock and human use of land: Productivity trends and dietary choices as drivers of future land and carbon dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Humpenöder, Florian; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Stevanović, Miodrag

2017-12-01

Land use change has been the primary driving force of human alteration of terrestrial ecosystems. With 80% of agricultural land dedicated to livestock production, the sector is an important lever to attenuate land requirements for food production and carbon emissions from land use change. In this study, we quantify impacts of changing human diets and livestock productivity on land dynamics and depletion of carbon stored in vegetation, litter and soils. Across all investigated productivity pathways, lower consumption of livestock products can substantially reduce deforestation (47-55%) and cumulative carbon losses (34-57%). On the supply side, already minor productivity growth in extensive livestock production systems leads to substantial CO2 emission abatement, but the emission saving potential of productivity gains in intensive systems is limited, also involving trade-offs with soil carbon stocks. If accounting for uncertainties related to future trade restrictions, crop yields and pasture productivity, the range of projected carbon savings from changing diets increases to 23-78%. Highest abatement of carbon emissions (63-78%) can be achieved if reduced consumption of animal-based products is combined with sustained investments into productivity increases in plant production. Our analysis emphasizes the importance to integrate demand- and supply-side oriented mitigation strategies and to combine efforts in the crop and livestock sector to enable synergies for climate protection.

Does reading scenarios of future land use changes affect willingness to participate in land use planning?

Science.gov (United States)

Michelle L. Johnson; Kathleen P. Bell; Mario F. Teisl

2016-01-01

Scenarios of future outcomes often provide context for policy decisions and can be a form of science communication, translating complex and uncertain relationships into stories for a broader audience. We conducted a survey experiment (n = 270) to test the effects of reading land use change scenarios on willingness to participate in land use planning activities. In the...

Energy, material and land requirement of a fusion plant

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schleisner, Liselotte; Hamacher, T.; Cabal, H.

2001-01-01

The energy and material necessary to construct a power plant and the land covered by the plant are indicators for the ‘consumption’ of environment by a certain technology. Based on current knowledge, estimations show that the material necessary to construct a fusion plant will exceed the material...... requirement of a fission plant by a factor of two. The material requirement for a fusion plant is roughly 2000 t/MW and little less than 1000 t/MW for a fission plant. The land requirement for a fusion plant is roughly 300 m2/MW and the land requirement for a fission plant is a little less than 200 m2/MW...... less ‘environment’ for the construction than renewable technologies, especially wind and solar....

Long-term land use future scenarios for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-08-01

In order to facilitate decision regarding environmental restoration activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), the United States Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) conducted analyses to project reasonable future land use scenarios at the INEL for the next 100 years. The methodology for generating these scenarios included: review of existing DOE plans, policy statements, and mission statements pertaining to the INEL; review of surrounding land use characteristics and county developments policies; solicitation of input from local, county, state and federal planners, policy specialists, environmental professionals, and elected officials; and review of environmental and development constraints at the INEL site that could influence future land use

Global Land Transport Infrastructure Requirements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-06-01

Over the next four decades, global passenger and freight travel is expected to double over 2010 levels. In order to accommodate this growth, it is expected that the world will need to add nearly 25 million paved road lane-kilometres and 335 000 rail track kilometres. In addition, it is expected that between 45 000 square kilometres and 77 000 square kilometres of new parking spaces will be added to accommodate vehicle stock growth. These land transport infrastructure additions, when combined with operations, maintenance and repairs, are expected to cost as much as USD 45 trillion by 2050. This publication reports on the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) analysis of infrastructure requirements to support projected road and rail travel through 2050, using the IEA Mobility Model. It considers land transport infrastructure additions to support travel growth to 2050. It also considers potential savings if countries pursue “avoid and shift” policies: in this scenario, cumulative global land transport infrastructure spending could decrease as much as USD 20 trillion by 2050 over baseline projections.

Future Home Network Requirements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Charbonnier, Benoit; Wessing, Henrik; Lannoo, Bart

This paper presents the requirements for future Home Area Networks (HAN). Firstly, we discuss the applications and services as well as their requirements. Then, usage scenarios are devised to establish a first specification for the HAN. The main requirements are an increased bandwidth (towards 1...

MODELING OF FUTURE LAND COVER LAND USE CHANGE IN NORTH CAROLINA USING MARKOV CHAIN AND CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODEL

OpenAIRE

Mohammad Sayemuzzaman; Manoj K. Jha

2014-01-01

State wide variant topographic features in North Carolina attract the hydro-climatologist. There is none modeling study found that predict future Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) change for whole North Carolina. In this study, satellite-derived land cover maps of year 1992, 2001 and 2006 of North Carolina were integrated within the framework of the Markov-Cellular Automata (Markov-CA) model which combines the Markov chain and Cellular Automata (CA) techniques. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) was ...

The Effect of No Agricultural Productivity Growth on Future Land Use and Climate through Biogeophysical Mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Davies-Barnard, T.; Valdes, P. J.; Singarayer, J. S.; Jones, C.

2012-12-01

Future land use and the consequent land cover change will have a significant impact on future climate through biogeophysical (albedo, surface roughness and latent heat transfer, etc.) as well as biogeochemical (greenhouse gas emissions etc.) mechanisms. One of the major determinants of the extent of land use induced land cover change is the agricultural productivity growth within the socio-economic models used for developing the RCP scenarios. There are considerable uncertainties in the size of agricultural productivity under climate change, as yields are projected to vary spatially in signal and strength. Previous climate modeling work has considered the impacts to the carbon cycle of different levels of agricultural productivity growth, but has failed to consider the biogeophysical effects of the land use induced land cover change on climate. Here we examine the climate impacts of the assumption of agricultural productivity growth and business as usual land use. The effects are considered through the biogeophysical land use induced land cover change, using the Hadley Centre climate model HadGEM2. The model simulations use the set biogeochemical climate forcing of the RCP 4.5 scenario, but the biogeophysical land use change specification is altered over a 100 year simulation. Simulations are run with combinations of no land use change; standard RCP 4.5 land use change; business as usual land use change; and zero agricultural productivity growth. The key effect of no agricultural productivity growth is that more cropland is required to feed the same population, necessitating cropland expansion. The expansion of cropland and consequent deforestation increases the albedo and gives an extensive cooling effect in the northern hemisphere (up to 2°C). Differences in global mean temperature between the zero agricultural productivity growth with business as usual land use change specified run and the standard RCP 4.5 run are -0.2°C by 2040 and -0.7°C by 2100. There is

Land Surface Phenologies of the Northern Great Plains: Possible Futures Arising From Land and Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Henebry, G. M.; Wimberly, M. C.; Senay, G.; Wang, A.; Chang, J.; Wright, C. R.; Hansen, M. C.

2008-12-01

Land cover change across the Northern Great Plains of North America over the past three decades has been driven by changes in agricultural management (conservation tillage; irrigation), government incentives (Conservation Reserve Program; subsidies to grain-based ethanol), crop varieties (cold-hardy soybean), and market dynamics (increasing world demand). Climate change across the Northern Great Plains over the past three decades has been evident in trends toward earlier warmth in the spring and a longer frost-free season. Together these land and climate changes induce shifts in local and regional land surface phenologies (LSPs). Any significant shift in LSP may correspond to a significant shift in evapotranspiration, with consequences for regional hydrometeorology. We explored possible future scenarios involving land use and climate change in six steps. First, we defined the nominal draw areas of current and future biorefineries in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa and masked those land cover types within the draw areas that were unlikely to change to agricultural use (open water, settlements, forests, etc.). Second, we estimated the proportion of corn and soybean remaining within the masked draw areas using MODIS-derived crop maps. Third, in each draw area, we modified LSPs to simulate crop changes for a control and two treatment scenarios. In the control, we used LSP profiles identified from MODIS Collection 5 NBAR data. In one treatment, we increased the proportion of tallgrass LSPs in the draw areas to represent widespread cultivation of a perennial cellulosic crop, like switchgrass. In a second treatment, we increased the proportion of corn LSPs in the draw areas to represent increased corn cultivation. Fourth, we characterized the seasonal progression of the thermal regime associated with the LSP profiles using MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) products. Fifth, we modeled the LSP profile as a quadratic function of accumulated

A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Reginster, I.; Araújo, Miguel B.

2006-01-01

This paper presents a range of future, spatially explicit, land use change scenarios for the EU15, Norway and Switzerland based on an interpretation of the global storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that are presented in the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES......). The methodology is based on a qualitative interpretation of the SRES storylines for the European region, an estimation of the aggregate totals of land use change using various land use change models and the allocation of these aggregate quantities in space using spatially explicit rules. The spatial patterns...... are further downscaled from a resolution of 10 min to 250 m using statistical downscaling procedures. The scenarios include the major land use/land cover classes urban, cropland, grassland and forest land as well as introducing new land use classes such as bioenergy crops. The scenario changes are most...

Coal Mining and Coal Seam Gas on Gomeroi country: Sacred lands, economic futures and shifting alliances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Norman, Heidi

2016-01-01

North western NSW has seen a host of interest groups working in alliance opposing coal and coal seam gas mining. These groups - farmers, residents and environmentalists share concerns about the impact on the unique black soil and aquifer, of fossil fuel more broadly. While these shared alliances across class, gender and generations are emergent, Aboriginal citizens are uniquely placed in this contest over land, environment and resources. This paper sets out to show the historical and contemporary significance of the place of Aboriginal people in the debate over land use, arguing that, for the first time in history, Aboriginal worlds are central to community futures. In this space, new relationships are being forged and new discourse is required to comprehend the complex position Aboriginal citizens have as custodians of place and at the same time, the responsibility to provide for families and communities, otherwise excluded from the prevailing modern economy. With reference to the history of both relationship to land and land usage over Gomeroi country, and drawing on ethnographic along with archival research, this article seeks to contribute to a critical understanding of Aboriginal people's dealings in relation to their land, their cultural and economic interests with in an emerging regional coal economy, and in turn how they are redefining the context for energy resource extraction, and energy policy. - Highlights: • Aboriginal worlds are central to community futures in Australia. • Prospecting for coal and coal seam gas is forcing Aboriginal land holders into new relationships. • The nexus between the coal economy & Aboriginal self-determination is deeply contested. • New discourses are emerging to comprehend the custodianship of place in the context of mining.

Modelling land-use effects of future urbanization using cellular automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, B.; Hansen, H.S.

2013-01-01

project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2040 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and modelled using the cellular automata model LUCIA. For the modelling, an Eastern......The modelling of land use change is a way to analyse future scenarios by modelling different pathways. Application of spatial data of different scales coupled with socio-economic data makes it possible to explore and test the understanding of land use change relations. In the EU-FP7 research...... Danish case area was selected, comprising of the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different descriptive GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban density and structure...

Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Quilbé

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Watershed runoff is closely related to land use but this influence is difficult to quantify. This study focused on the Chaudière River watershed (Québec, Canada and had two objectives: (i to quantify the influence of historical agricultural land use evolution on watershed runoff; and (ii to assess the effect of future land use evolution scenarios under climate change conditions (CC. To achieve this, we used the integrated modeling system GIBSI. Past land use evolution was constructed using satellite images that were integrated into GIBSI. The general trend was an increase of agricultural land in the 80's, a slight decrease in the beginning of the 90's and a steady state over the last ten years. Simulations showed strong correlations between land use evolution and water discharge at the watershed outlet. For the prospective approach, we first assessed the effect of CC and then defined two opposite land use evolution scenarios for the horizon 2025 based on two different trends: agriculture intensification and sustainable development. Simulations led to a wide range of results depending on the climatologic models and gas emission scenarios considered, varying from a decrease to an increase of annual and monthly water discharge. In this context, the two land use scenarios induced opposite effects on water discharge and low flow sequences, especially during the growing season. However, due to the large uncertainty linked to CC simulations, it is difficult to conclude that one land use scenario provides a better adaptation to CC than another. Nevertheless, this study shows that land use is a key factor that has to be taken into account when predicting potential future hydrological responses of a watershed.

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2017-01-01

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories.

Land quality indicators for sustainable land management proposed method for yield gap and soil nutrient balance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bindraban, P.S.; Stoorvogel, J.J.; Jansen, D.M.; Vlaming, J.; Groot, J.J.R.

2000-01-01

The required increase in agricultural production to meet future food demand will further increase pressure on land resources. Integrative indicators of the current status of the agricultural production capacity of land and their change over time are needed for promoting land management practices to

National Land Imaging Requirements (NLIR) Pilot Project summary report: summary of moderate resolution imaging user requirements

Science.gov (United States)

Vadnais, Carolyn; Stensaas, Gregory

2014-01-01

Under the National Land Imaging Requirements (NLIR) Project, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing a functional capability to obtain, characterize, manage, maintain and prioritize all Earth observing (EO) land remote sensing user requirements. The goal is a better understanding of community needs that can be supported with land remote sensing resources, and a means to match needs with appropriate solutions in an effective and efficient way. The NLIR Project is composed of two components. The first component is focused on the development of the Earth Observation Requirements Evaluation System (EORES) to capture, store and analyze user requirements, whereas, the second component is the mechanism and processes to elicit and document the user requirements that will populate the EORES. To develop the second component, the requirements elicitation methodology was exercised and refined through a pilot project conducted from June to September 2013. The pilot project focused specifically on applications and user requirements for moderate resolution imagery (5–120 meter resolution) as the test case for requirements development. The purpose of this summary report is to provide a high-level overview of the requirements elicitation process that was exercised through the pilot project and an early analysis of the moderate resolution imaging user requirements acquired to date to support ongoing USGS sustainable land imaging study needs. The pilot project engaged a limited set of Federal Government users from the operational and research communities and therefore the information captured represents only a subset of all land imaging user requirements. However, based on a comparison of results, trends, and analysis, the pilot captured a strong baseline of typical applications areas and user needs for moderate resolution imagery. Because these results are preliminary and represent only a sample of users and application areas, the information from this report should only

Options for including all lands in a future greenhouse gas accounting framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cowie, Annette L.; Kirschbaum, Miko U.F.; Ward, Murray

2007-01-01

The current framework through which greenhouse gas emissions and removals in the land use sector are accounted under the Kyoto Protocol has several problems. They include a complex structure, onerous monitoring and reporting requirements, and potential for omission of some important fluxes. One solution that may overcome some of these problems is to include all lands and associated processes within a country's jurisdiction, rather than restrict accounting to specific nominated land categories or activities. Ideally, the accounting approach should cover all significant biospheric sources and sinks, avoid biased or unbalanced accounting, avoid leakage and require no arbitrary adjustments to remedy unintended consequences. Furthermore, accounting should focus on the direct human-induced component of biospheric emissions/removals so that debits/credits can be allocated equitably and provide appropriate incentives to adopt land-use management options with beneficial outcomes for the atmosphere. This paper focuses on biospheric emissions and removals resulting from carbon stock changes. It considers four alternative accounting options that include all land areas: Gross-Net Accounting, Net-Net Accounting, Net Accounting with Negotiated Baselines and the Average Carbon Stocks approach. Each option is described, and assessed with respect to defined criteria for effectiveness. Gross-Net Accounting and Net-Net Accounting do not adequately distinguish the anthropogenic component of carbon-stock changes from indirect and natural effects, so large undeserved credits or debits could be created. Under Net Accounting with Negotiated Baselines, countries' projected emissions and removals during the commitment period would be taken into account in the negotiation of emissions targets. In the commitment period, countries would then gain credits/debits for biospheric removals/emissions. Difficulties with this approach would lie in reaching agreed baselines for emissions and removals

Modeling the land requirements and potential productivity of sugarcane and jatropha in Brazil and India using the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lapola, David M. [Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, D-34109 Kassel (Germany); International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modeling, D-20146 Hamburg (Germany); Priess, Joerg A. [Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, D-34109 Kassel (Germany); Bondeau, Alberte [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, D-14412 Potsdam (Germany)

2009-08-15

The governments of Brazil and India are planning a large expansion of bioethanol and biodiesel production in the next decade. Considering that limitation of suitable land and/or competition with other land uses might occur in both countries, assessments of potential crop productivity can contribute to an improved planning of land requirements for biofuels under high productivity or marginal conditions. In this paper we model the potential productivity of sugarcane and jatropha in both countries. Land requirements for such expansions are calculated according to policy scenarios based on government targets for biofuel production in 2015. Spatial variations in the potential productivity lead to rather different land requirements, depending on where plantations are located. If jatropha is not irrigated, land requirements to fulfill the Indian government plans in 2015 would be of 410 000 to 95 000 km{sup 2} if grown in low or high productivity areas respectively (mean of 212 000 km{sup 2}). In Brazil land requirements, are of 18 000-89 000 km{sup 2} (mean of 29 000 km{sup 2}), suggesting a promising substitute to soybean biodiesel. Although future demand for sugarcane ethanol in Brazil is approximately ten times larger than in India, land requirements are comparable in both countries due to large differences in ethanol production systems. In Brazil this requirement ranges from 25 000 to 211 000 km{sup 2} (mean of 33 000 km{sup 2}) and in India from 7000 to 161 000 km{sup 2} (mean 17 000 km{sup 2}). Irrigation could reduce the land requirements by 63% and 41% (24% and 15%) in India (Brazil) for jatropha and sugarcane respectively. (author)

An Approach to Evaluate Comprehensive Plan and Identify Priority Lands for Future Land Use Development to Conserve More Ecological Values

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Long Zhou

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Urbanization has significant impacts on the regional environmental quality through altering natural lands, converting them to urban built-up areas. One common strategy applied by urban planners to manage urbanization and preserve natural resources is to make a comprehensive plan and concentrate future land use in certain areas. However, in practice, planners used to make future land use planning mainly based on their subjective interpretations with limited ecological supporting evidence and analysis. Here, we propose a new approach composed of ecological modelling and land use zoning in the spatial matrix to evaluate the comprehensive plan and identify priority lands for sustainable land use planning. We use the city of Corvallis, OR, as the test bed to demonstrate this new approach. The results indicate that the Corvallis Comprehensive Plan 1998–2020 featured with compact development is not performing efficiently in conserving ecological values, and the land use plan featured with mixed-use spreading development generated by the proposed approach meets the city’s land demands for urban growth, and conserves 103% more ecological value of retaining storm water nitrogen, 270% more ecological value of retaining storm water phosphorus and 19% more ecological value in storing carbon in the whole watershed. This study indicates that if planned with scientific analysis and evidence, spreading urban development does not necessarily result in less sustainable urban environment than the compact development recommended in smart growth.

Predicting future land cover change and its impact on streamflow and sediment load in a trans-boundary river basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Wang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Sediment load can provide very important perspective on erosion of river basin. The changes of human-induced vegetation cover, such as deforestation or afforestation, affect sediment yield process of a catchment. We have already evaluated that climate change and land cover change changed the historical streamflow and sediment yield, and land cover change is the main factor in Red river basin. But future streamflow and sediment yield changes under potential future land cover change scenario still have not been evaluated. For this purpose, future scenario of land cover change is developed based on historical land cover changes and land change model (LCM. In addition, future leaf area index (LAI is simulated by ecological model (Biome-BGC based on future land cover scenario. Then future scenarios of land cover change and LAI are used to drive hydrological model and new sediment rating curve. The results of this research provide information that decision-makers need in order to promote water resources planning efforts. Besides that, this study also contributes a basic framework for assessing climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment yield that can be applied in the other basins around the world.

A Land-use Approach for Capturing Future Trip Generating Poles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iraklis Stamos

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Changes in the usage of a particular urban or regional area have immediate effects on transportation, such as the development of a new multimodal terminal within a city, or the creation of a business park in its outskirts. Thus far, this correlation has been under-researched at a national level in Greece. As a result, its effects on trip generation and passenger flows has been underestimated at the planning level, leading to the implementation of projects that are neither viable nor sustainable. This paper proposes that land use changes ought to be considered in tandem with transport-related changes at the planning stage. To this effect, we present a three-step methodology for an integrated approach to capturing future trip generation: the identification of future trip-generating poles within the study area; the development of scenarios related to the probability of these changes occurring and their potential magnitude; an estimation of future trends in passenger flows. The methodology is applied to the Metropolitan area of Thessaloniki, Greece. Using data obtained from development plans, national statistical services and research projects’ and studies’ findings, we estimate future trip-generation subsequent to land use change. Data is processed and evaluated by a local experts’ group, representing various key-disciplines of the area’s planning stakeholders.

Information processing requirements for on-board monitoring of automatic landing

Science.gov (United States)

Sorensen, J. A.; Karmarkar, J. S.

1977-01-01

A systematic procedure is presented for determining the information processing requirements for on-board monitoring of automatic landing systems. The monitoring system detects landing anomalies through use of appropriate statistical tests. The time-to-correct aircraft perturbations is determined from covariance analyses using a sequence of suitable aircraft/autoland/pilot models. The covariance results are used to establish landing safety and a fault recovery operating envelope via an event outcome tree. This procedure is demonstrated with examples using the NASA Terminal Configured Vehicle (B-737 aircraft). The procedure can also be used to define decision height, assess monitoring implementation requirements, and evaluate alternate autoland configurations.

Research on Land Surface Thermal-Hydrologic Exchange in Southern China under Future Climate and Land Cover Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianwu Yan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change inevitably leads to changes in hydrothermal circulation. However, thermal-hydrologic exchanging caused by land cover change has also undergone ineligible changes. Therefore, studying the comprehensive effects of climate and land cover changes on land surface water and heat exchanges enables us to well understand the formation mechanism of regional climate and predict climate change with fewer uncertainties. This study investigated the land surface thermal-hydrologic exchange across southern China for the next 40 years using a land surface model (ecosystem-atmosphere simulation scheme (EASS. Our findings are summarized as follows. (i Spatiotemporal variation patterns of sensible heat flux (H and evapotranspiration (ET under the land cover scenarios (A2a or B2a and climate change scenario (A1B are unanimous. (ii Both H and ET take on a single peak pattern, and the peak occurs in June or July. (iii Based on the regional interannual variability analysis, H displays a downward trend (10% and ET presents an increasing trend (15%. (iv The annual average H and ET would, respectively, increase and decrease by about 10% when woodland converts to the cultivated land. Through this study, we recognize that land surface water and heat exchanges are affected greatly by the future climate change as well as land cover change.

Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alison Rothwell

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Present decisions about urbanization of peri-urban (PU areas may contribute to the capacity of cities to mitigate future climate change. Comprehensive mitigative responses to PU development should require integration of urban form and food production to realise potential trade-offs. Despite this, few studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG implications of future urban development combined with impacts on PU food production. In this paper, four future scenarios, at 2050 and 2100 time horizons, were developed to evaluate the potential GHG emissions implications of feeding and housing a growing urban population in Sydney, Australia. The scenarios were thematically downscaled from the four relative concentration pathways. Central to the scenarios were differences in population, technology, energy, housing form, transportation, temperature, food production and land use change (LUC. A life cycle assessment approach was used within the scenarios to evaluate differences in GHG impacts. Differences in GHG emissions between scenarios at the 2100 time horizon, per area of PU land transformed, approximated 0.7 Mt CO2-e per year. Per additional resident this equated to 0.7 to 6.1 t CO2-e per year. Indirect LUC has the potential to be significant. Interventions such as carbon capture and storage technology, renewables and urban form markedly reduced emissions. However, incorporating cross-sectoral energy saving measures within urban planning at the regional scale requires a paradigmatic shift.

Trading Land: A Review of Approaches to Accounting for Upstream Land Requirements of Traded Products.

Science.gov (United States)

Schaffartzik, Anke; Haberl, Helmut; Kastner, Thomas; Wiedenhofer, Dominik; Eisenmenger, Nina; Erb, Karl-Heinz

2015-10-01

Land use is recognized as a pervasive driver of environmental impacts, including climate change and biodiversity loss. Global trade leads to "telecoupling" between the land use of production and the consumption of biomass-based goods and services. Telecoupling is captured by accounts of the upstream land requirements associated with traded products, also commonly referred to as land footprints. These accounts face challenges in two main areas: (1) the allocation of land to products traded and consumed and (2) the metrics to account for differences in land quality and land-use intensity. For two main families of accounting approaches (biophysical, factor-based and environmentally extended input-output analysis), this review discusses conceptual differences and compares results for land footprints. Biophysical approaches are able to capture a large number of products and different land uses, but suffer from a truncation problem. Economic approaches solve the truncation problem, but are hampered by the limited disaggregation of sectors and products. In light of the conceptual differences, the overall similarity of results generated by both types of approaches is remarkable. Diametrically opposed results for some of the world's largest producers and consumers of biomass-based products, however, make interpretation difficult. This review aims to provide clarity on some of the underlying conceptual issues of accounting for land footprints.

Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Beijing, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiran Han

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Land use and land cover (LULC models are essential for analyzing LULC change and predicting land use requirements and are valuable for guiding reasonable land use planning and management. However, each LULC model has its own advantages and constraints. In this paper, we explore the characteristics of LULC change and simulate future land use demand by combining a CLUE-S model with a Markov model to deal with some shortcomings of existing LULC models. Using Beijing as a case study, we describe the related driving factors from land-adaptive variables, regional spatial variables and socio-economic variables and then simulate future land use scenarios from 2010 to 2020, which include a development scenario (natural development and rapid development and protection scenarios (ecological and cultivated land protection. The results indicate good consistency between predicted results and actual land use situations according to a Kappa statistic. The conversion of cultivated land to urban built-up land will form the primary features of LULC change in the future. The prediction for land use demand shows the differences under different scenarios. At higher elevations, the geographical environment limits the expansion of urban built-up land, but the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land in mountainous areas will be more prevalent by 2020; Beijing, however, still faces the most pressure in terms of ecological and cultivated land protection.

Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

2013-12-01

Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

Science.gov (United States)

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth throug...

Corporate strategy and viable future land use: Planning for closure from the outset of mining

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Warhurst, A.

2000-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the environmental impact of mining on viable future land use and underlines the imperative of improved environmental management and closure planning. It argues that pollution prevention, through planning for closure, can lead to cost-effective strategies for sustainable minerals development and viable future land use. This seems to be most true for greenfield sites since, generally, the earlier closure planning and pollution prevention is built into a project, the more cost-effective and environmentally benign closure will be. Further, for greenfield sites, pollution prevention techniques can be employed from the outset, at the stages of exploration and mine development, and then monitored and improved through the operation stage to closure, and can be kept in place to manage future land use. The paper discusses how global changes in the industry, following the liberalisation of investment regimes, and mergers and strategic alliances between key firms, has, by virtue of the diffusion of new technology, led to further opportunities to prevent pollution and optimise future land use through planning for closure from the outset. The objectives and components of closure plans are also reviewed as the paper draws on case studies to highlight some of the possible constraints and challenges to pollution prevention that may be faced at the level of both public policy and corporate strategy. The article concludes by suggesting a forward-looking approach to integrated environmental management and viable future land-use planning based on a dynamic model for environmental management. (author)

A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

2018-05-01

The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country), plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30-100 m) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as an empirical database for

ATLAS Future Framework Requirements Group Report

CERN Document Server

The ATLAS collaboration

2016-01-01

The Future Frameworks Requirements Group was constituted in Summer 2013 to consider and summarise the framework requirements from trigger and offline for configuring, scheduling and monitoring the data processing software needed by the ATLAS experiment. The principal motivation for such a re-examination arises from the current and anticipated evolution of CPUs, where multiple cores, hyper-threading and wide vector registers require a shift to a concurrent programming model. Such a model requires extensive changes in the current Gaudi/Athena frameworks and offers the opportunity to consider how HLT and offline processing can be better accommodated within the ATLAS framework. This note contains the report of the Future Frameworks Requirements Group.

Water and Land Limitations to Future Agricultural Production in the Middle East

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, J. A. M.; Wimmer, F.; Schaldach, R.

2015-12-01

Countries in the Middle East use a large fraction of their scarce water resources to produce cash crops, such as fruit and vegetables, for international markets. At the same time, these countries import large amounts of staple crops, such as cereals, required to meet the nutritional demand of their populations. This makes food security in the Middle East heavily dependent on world market prices for staple crops. Under these preconditions, increasing food demand due to population growth, urban expansion on fertile farmlands, and detrimental effects of a changing climate on the production of agricultural commodities present major challenges to countries in the Middle East that try to improve food security by increasing their self-sufficiency rate of staple crops.We applied the spatio-temporal land-use change model LandSHIFT.JR to simulate how an expansion of urban areas may affect the production of agricultural commodities in Jordan. We furthermore evaluated how climate change and changes in socio-economic conditions may influence crop production. The focus of our analysis was on potential future irrigated and rainfed production (crop yield and area demand) of fruit, vegetables, and cereals. Our simulation results show that the expansion of urban areas and the resulting displacement of agricultural areas does result in a slight decrease in crop yields. This leads to almost no additional irrigation water requirements due to the relocation of agricultural areas, i.e. there is the same amount of "crop per drop". However, taking into account projected changes in socio-economic conditions and climate conditions, a large volume of water would be required for cereal production in order to safeguard current self-sufficiency rates for staple crops. Irrigation water requirements are expected to double until 2025 and to triple until 2050. Irrigated crop yields are projected to decrease by about 25%, whereas there is no decrease in rainfed crop yields to be expected.

The future of irrigated agriculture under environmental flow requirements restrictions

Science.gov (United States)

Pastor, Amandine; Palazzo, Amanda; Havlik, Petr; Kabat, Pavel; Obersteiner, Michael; Ludwig, Fulco

2016-04-01

Water is not an infinite resource and demand from irrigation, household and industry is constantly increasing. This study focused on including global water availability including environmental flow requirements with water withdrawal from irrigation and other sectors at a monthly time-step in the GLOBIOM model. This model allows re-adjustment of land-use allocation, crop management, consumption and international trade. The GLOBIOM model induces an endogenous change in water price depending on water supply and demand. In this study, the focus was on how the inclusion of water resources affects land-use and, in particular, how global change will influence repartition of irrigated and rainfed lands at global scale. We used the climate change scenario including a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 (RCP8.5), the socio-economic scenario (SSP2: middle-of-road), and the environmental flow method based on monthly flow allocation (the Variable Monthly Flow method) with high and low restrictions. Irrigation withdrawals were adjusted to a monthly time-step to account for biophysical water limitations at finer time resolution. Our results show that irrigated land might decrease up to 40% on average depending on the choice of EFR restrictions. Several areas were identified as future hot-spots of water stress such as the Mediterranean and Middle-East regions. Other countries were identified to be in safe position in terms of water stress such as North-European countries. Re-allocation of rainfed and irrigated land might be useful information for land-use planners and water managers at an international level to decide on appropriate legislations on climate change mitigation/adaptation when exposure and sensitivity to climate change is high and/or on adaptation measures to face increasing water demand. For example, some countries are likely to adopt measures to increase their water use efficiencies (irrigation system, soil and water conservation practices) to face water shortages, while

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

2015-08-01

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by

Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

2010-01-01

Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

Land substitution effects of biofuel side products and implications on the land area requirement for EU 2020 biofuel targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozdemir, Enver Doruk; Haerdtlein, Marlies; Eltrop, Ludger

2009-01-01

The provision of biofuels today is based on energy crops rather than residual biomass, which results in the requirement of agricultural land area. The side products may serve as animal feed and thus prevent cultivation of other feedstock and the use of corresponding land area. These effects of biofuel provision have to be taken into account for a comprising assessment of land area requirement for biofuel provision. Between 18.5 and 21.1 Mio. hectares (ha) of land area is needed to meet the EU 2020 biofuel target depending on the biofuel portfolio when substitution effects are neglected. The utilization of the bioethanol side products distiller's dried grain and solubles (DDGS) and pressed beet slices may save up to 0.7 Mio. ha of maize cultivation area in the EU. The substitution effect due to the utilization of biodiesel side products (oil cakes of rape, palm and soy) as animal feed may account for up to 7.1 Mio. ha of soy cultivation area in Brazil. The results show that the substitution of land area due to use of side products might ease the pressures on land area requirement considerably and should therefore not be neglected in assessing the impacts of biofuel provision worldwide.

A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Fuchs

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country, plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30–100 m remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems. Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as

Modeling green infrastructure land use changes on future air ...

Science.gov (United States)

Green infrastructure can be a cost-effective approach for reducing stormwater runoff and improving water quality as a result, but it could also bring co-benefits for air quality: less impervious surfaces and more vegetation can decrease the urban heat island effect, and also result in more removal of air pollutants via dry deposition with increased vegetative surfaces. Cooler surface temperatures can also decrease ozone formation through the increases of NOx titration; however, cooler surface temperatures also lower the height of the boundary layer resulting in more concentrated pollutants within the same volume of air, especially for primary emitted pollutants (e.g. NOx, CO, primary particulate matter). To better understand how green infrastructure impacts air quality, the interactions between all of these processes must be considered collectively. In this study, we use a comprehensive coupled meteorology-air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) to simulate the influence of planned land use changes that include green infrastructure in Kansas City (KC) on regional meteorology and air quality. Current and future land use data was provided by the Mid-America Regional Council for 2012 and 2040 (projected land use due to population growth, city planning and green infrastructure implementation). These land use datasets were incorporated into the WRF-CMAQ modeling system allowing the modeling system to propagate the changes in vegetation and impervious surface coverage on meteoro

Challenges of pin-point landing for planetary landing: the LION absolute vision-based navigation approach and experimental results

OpenAIRE

Voirin, Thomas; Delaune, Jeff; Le Besnerais, Guy; Farges, Jean Loup; Bourdarias, Clément; Krüger, Hans

2013-01-01

After ExoMars in 2016 and 2018, future ESA missions to Mars, the Moon, or asteroids will require safe and pinpoint precision landing capabilities, with for example a specified accuracy of typically 100 m at touchdown for a Moon landing. The safe landing requirement can be met thanks to state-of-the-art Terrain-Relative Navigation (TRN) sensors such as Wide-Field-of-View vision-based navigation cameras (VBNC), with appropriate hazard detection and avoidance algorithms. To reach the pinpoint pr...

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Stocker, Benjamin D.; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri; Prentice, Iain Colin

2013-07-01

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4-0.5°C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8-1.0°C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22-27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Estimating indigenous resources for fuel-wood and poles and plantation requirements in the tribal trust lands of Zimbabwe Rhodesia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Furness, C K

1981-01-01

The difficulties encountered in planning for the conservation of indigenous timber resources and in estimating the timber consumption in tribal trust land are outlined in this paper. An estimate of these resources and of the consumption of timber, together with an estimate of exotic plantations required to make up any shortfall of timber, is given. Some 66,000 ha of eucalypts are currently required in the tribal trust lands, where planting has thus far provided only 3800 ha. The types of plantations established and the species used are mentioned. The rural population has, generally speaking, shown only limited enthusiasm for growing exotics, one of the reasons being the traditional use of indigenous timber which is still available in most areas without cost, and the preference for indigenous timber compared to eucalypts. The need for more reliable data for future planning is emphasized. Substitutes for fuel-wood are discussed and the need to reserve areas of indigenous timber in tribal trust land for the protection of soil and water and for fuel-wood are proposed. (Refs. 1).

NativeView: Our Land, Our People, Our Future

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, T.

2006-05-01

The objective of this discussion is to (1) discuss the chasm between the breadth of Tribal land and resource to be sustained compared to the finite number of Tribal people trained in the sciences; (2) illustrate the need for integrating scientific knowledge with cultural knowledge; and (3) discuss the emergence of NativeView as Tribal College (TCUs) initiative leading the integration of geoscience and geospatial technology (GIS, Remote Sensing) with cultural knowledge to meet the growing needs of indigenous communities. It's about our land, our people and the need for highly trained individuals to sustainable and manage our resources for the future. There is a tremendous gap between total acreage of land owned or managed and the level of education obtained by indigenous people. In the United States today, American Indians and Alaskan Natives account for less than one percent of the total population, yet are responsible for more than five percent of the total land area. In North Dakota, there are over 54 thousand American Indians responsible for more than 3.8 million acres of Tribal Land. In contrast, less than 15 percent of indigenous people finish a Bachelor's degree of any kind and far fewer finish a science degree that would help them become more effective and responsible land managers. This poses an important dilemma. How will the Tribes meet (1) the resource needs of a growing population, (2) the demand for a skilled workforce, and (3) resource management goals in ways that contribute to Tribal infrastructure and equate to sustainable resource management? The integration of geoscience and geospatial technologies into the curriculum of Tribal Colleges (TCU's) has quietly emerged as one of the leading initiatives across Indian Country. These skills are widely recognized as a vehicle to empower our constituents in the sciences, in the cultural values and the traditional land ethic that defines us as a people. NativeView has taken the lead in working with the

Food Footprints: Global diet preferences and the land required to sustain them

Science.gov (United States)

Cassidy, E. S.; Gerber, J. S.; Foley, J. A.

2011-12-01

Agricultural land occupies approximately 4.9 billion hectares of the earth's surface. The amount of land that is required to feed a person differs globally, however, dependent mainly on diet. Diets dense in grain-fed animal protein require more land than plant-based diets in order to supply the same quantity of calories and protein. As the world's population becomes more affluent, more animal products will be demanded of the food system. In this presentation, I will discuss how diet preferences differ globally and how these preferences translate to the amount of cropland needed to sustain them.

The estimation of future surface water bodies at Olkiluoto area based on statistical terrain and land uplift models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pohjola, J.; Turunen, J.; Lipping, T. [Tampere Univ. of Technology (Finland); Ikonen, A.

2014-03-15

In this working report the modelling effort of future landscape development and surface water body formation at the modelling area in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island is presented. Estimation of the features of future surface water bodies is based on probabilistic terrain and land uplift models presented in previous working reports. The estimation is done using a GIS-based toolbox called UNTAMO. The future surface water bodies are estimated in 10 000 years' time span with 1000 years' intervals for the safety assessment of disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site. In the report a brief overview on the techniques used for probabilistic terrain modelling, land uplift modelling and hydrological modelling are presented first. The latter part of the report describes the results of the modelling effort. The main features of the future landscape - the four lakes forming in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island - are identified and the probabilistic model of the shoreline displacement is presented. The area and volume of the four lakes is modelled in a probabilistic manner. All the simulations have been performed for three scenarios two of which are based on 10 realizations of the probabilistic digital terrain model (DTM) and 10 realizations of the probabilistic land uplift model. These two scenarios differ from each other by the eustatic curve used in the land uplift model. The third scenario employs 50 realizations of the probabilistic DTM while a deterministic land uplift model, derived solely from the current land uplift rate, is used. The results indicate that the two scenarios based on the probabilistic land uplift model behave in a similar manner while the third model overestimates past and future land uplift rates. The main features of the landscape are nevertheless similar also for the third scenario. Prediction results for the volumes of the future lakes indicate that a couple of highly probably lake formation scenarios can be identified

The estimation of future surface water bodies at Olkiluoto area based on statistical terrain and land uplift models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pohjola, J.; Turunen, J.; Lipping, T.; Ikonen, A.

2014-03-01

In this working report the modelling effort of future landscape development and surface water body formation at the modelling area in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island is presented. Estimation of the features of future surface water bodies is based on probabilistic terrain and land uplift models presented in previous working reports. The estimation is done using a GIS-based toolbox called UNTAMO. The future surface water bodies are estimated in 10 000 years' time span with 1000 years' intervals for the safety assessment of disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site. In the report a brief overview on the techniques used for probabilistic terrain modelling, land uplift modelling and hydrological modelling are presented first. The latter part of the report describes the results of the modelling effort. The main features of the future landscape - the four lakes forming in the vicinity of the Olkiluoto Island - are identified and the probabilistic model of the shoreline displacement is presented. The area and volume of the four lakes is modelled in a probabilistic manner. All the simulations have been performed for three scenarios two of which are based on 10 realizations of the probabilistic digital terrain model (DTM) and 10 realizations of the probabilistic land uplift model. These two scenarios differ from each other by the eustatic curve used in the land uplift model. The third scenario employs 50 realizations of the probabilistic DTM while a deterministic land uplift model, derived solely from the current land uplift rate, is used. The results indicate that the two scenarios based on the probabilistic land uplift model behave in a similar manner while the third model overestimates past and future land uplift rates. The main features of the landscape are nevertheless similar also for the third scenario. Prediction results for the volumes of the future lakes indicate that a couple of highly probably lake formation scenarios can be identified with other

Entry, Descent, and Landing With Propulsive Deceleration

Science.gov (United States)

Palaszewski, Bryan

2012-01-01

The future exploration of the Solar System will require innovations in transportation and the use of entry, descent, and landing (EDL) systems at many planetary landing sites. The cost of space missions has always been prohibitive, and using the natural planetary and planet s moons atmospheres for entry, descent, and landing can reduce the cost, mass, and complexity of these missions. This paper will describe some of the EDL ideas for planetary entry and survey the overall technologies for EDL that may be attractive for future Solar System missions.

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France.

Science.gov (United States)

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J J; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A

2016-11-03

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO 2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils.

Can Strategic Spatial Planning Contribute to Land Degradation Reduction in Urban Regions? State of the Art and Future Research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo Oliveira

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Land degradation is becoming a serious environmental issue threatening fertile agricultural soils and other natural resources. There are many driving forces behind land degradation. The expansion of artificial surfaces due to various economic activities, such as housing, industry, and transport infrastructure, known as soil sealing, constitutes one of the most intensive forms of land degradation in urban regions. Measures to halt and reverse land degradation require both strong land-use management policies, as well as effective spatial planning mechanisms. In this regard, strategic spatial planning has been increasingly practised in many urban regions worldwide, as a means to achieve sustainable land-use patterns and to guide the location of development and physical infrastructures. It is reasonable, therefore, to expect that strategic spatial planning can counteract the outlined undesired land degradation effects, specifically those resulting from soil sealing. In this paper, we review strategic spatial planning literature published between 1992 and 2017. The focus is on the phenomena causing land degradation that are addressed by strategic spatial planning literature, as well as on the mechanisms describing the role of strategic spatial planning in land degradation reduction. Results show that sustainable development and environmental concerns have become core objectives of strategic planning in recent years, yet references to the drivers of land degradation are rare. The mechanisms that exist are mainly intended to address environmental issues in general, and are not aimed at reducing particular forms of land degradation. The paper concludes by sketching future research directions, intended to support strategic spatial planning and land-use policymaking related to coping with the global phenomenon of land degradation.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future risk in Amazon forests

OpenAIRE

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Pereira, José Miguel Cardoso; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

2017-01-01

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest’s future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climatedriven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and ...

Ecosystem service impacts of future changes in CO2, climate, and land use as simulated by a coupled vegetation/land-use model system

Science.gov (United States)

Rabin, S. S.; Alexander, P.; Henry, R.; Anthoni, P.; Pugh, T.; Rounsevell, M.; Arneth, A.

2017-12-01

In a future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, changing climate, increasing human populations, and changing socioeconomic dynamics, the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. Global modeling can help to explore what these adaptations will look like, and their potential impacts on ecosystem services. To do so, however, the complex interconnections among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and society mean that these various parts of the Earth system must be examined as an interconnected whole. With the goal of answering these questions, a model system has been developed that couples a biologically-representative global vegetation model, LPJ-GUESS, with the PLUMv2 land use model. LPJ-GUESS first simulates—at 0.5º resolution across the world—the potential yield of various crops and pasture under a range of management intensities for a time step given its atmospheric CO2 level and climatic forcings. These potential yield simulations are fed into PLUMv2, which uses them in conjunction with endogenous agricultural commodity demand and prices to produce land use and management inputs (fertilizer and irrigation water) at a sub-national level for the next time step. This process is performed through 2100 for a range of future climate and societal scenarios—the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), respectively—providing a thorough exploration of possible trajectories of land use and land cover change. The land use projections produced by PLUMv2 are fed back into LPJ-GUESS to simulate the future impacts of land use change, along with increasing CO2 and climate change, on terrestrial ecosystems. This integrated analysis examines the resulting impacts on regulating and provisioning ecosystem services affecting biophysics (albedo); carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling; and the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs).

Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

2017-11-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

Science.gov (United States)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

2017-01-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Alternatives for future land disposal of radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mallory, C.W.

1982-01-01

Shallow land burial incorporating improvements to facilitate stabilization and decommissioning will continue to be the primary method of disposing of low level waste in areas where conditions are suitable for this type of disposal. The existing disposal sites should be closely monitored to assure that continued acceptance of this method of disposal. Plans for the decommissioning of the existing sites should be closely reviewed to assure that the planning is adequate and that adequate resources will be available to implement the decommissioning plan. For these areas where geological conditions are not suitable for shallow land burial and in situations where a higher degree of containment is desired, alternative disposal methods should be considered. Technology exists or is readily attainable to provide engineered disposal facilities which provide a higher degree of containment and can be readily decommissioned. The cost of disposal using these methods can be competitive with shallow land burial when the cost of environmental and hydrogeologic investigations and decommissioning are included. Disposal of radioactive waste having low activity in secure sanitary landfills could significantly reduce the transportation and disposal requirements for low level waste

Land use and energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robeck, K.E.; Ballou, S.W.; South, D.W.; Davis, M.J.; Chiu, S.Y.; Baker, J.E.; Dauzvardis, P.A.; Garvey, D.B.; Torpy, M.F.

1980-07-01

This report provides estimates of the amount of land required by past and future energy development in the United States and examines major federal legislation that regulates the impact of energy facilities on land use. An example of one land use issue associated with energy development - the potential conflict between surface mining and agriculture - is illustrated by describing the actual and projected changes in land use caused by coal mining in western Indiana. Energy activities addressed in the report include extraction of coal, oil, natural gas, uranium, oil shale, and geothermal steam; uranium processing; preparation of synfuels from coal; oil refineries; fossil-fuel, nuclear, and hydro-electric power plants; biomass energy farms; and disposal of solid wastes generated during combustion of fossil fuels. Approximately 1.1 to 3.3 x 10/sup 6/ acres were devoted to these activities in the United States in 1975. As much as 1.8 to 2.0 x 10/sup 6/ additional acres could be required by 1990 for new, nonbiomass energy development. The production of grain for fuel ethanol could require an additional 16.9 to 55.7 x 10/sup 6/ acres by 1990. Federal laws that directly or indirectly regulate the land-use impacts of energy facilities include the National Environmental Protection Act, Clean Air Act, Federal Water Pollution Control Act, Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act, and Coastal Zone Management Act. The major provisions of these acts, other relevant federal regulations, and similar state and local regulatons are described in this report. Federal legislation relating to air quality, water quality, and the management of public lands has the greatest potential to influence the location and timing of future energy development in the United States.

Land use and energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robeck, K.E.; Ballou, S.W.; South, D.W.; Davis, M.J.; Chiu, S.Y.; Baker, J.E.; Dauzvardis, P.A.; Garvey, D.B.; Torpy, M.F.

1980-07-01

This report provides estimates of the amount of land required by past and future energy development in the United States and examines major federal legislation that regulates the impact of energy facilities on land use. An example of one land use issue associated with energy development - the potential conflict between surface mining and agriculture - is illustrated by describing the actual and projected changes in land use caused by coal mining in western Indiana. Energy activities addressed in the report include extraction of coal, oil, natural gas, uranium, oil shale, and geothermal steam; uranium processing; preparation of synfuels from coal; oil refineries; fossil-fuel, nuclear, and hydro-electric power plants; biomass energy farms; and disposal of solid wastes generated during combustion of fossil fuels. Approximately 1.1 to 3.3 x 10 6 acres were devoted to these activities in the United States in 1975. As much as 1.8 to 2.0 x 10 6 additional acres could be required by 1990 for new, nonbiomass energy development. The production of grain for fuel ethanol could require an additional 16.9 to 55.7 x 10 6 acres by 1990. Federal laws that directly or indirectly regulate the land-use impacts of energy facilities include the National Environmental Protection Act, Clean Air Act, Federal Water Pollution Control Act, Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act, and Coastal Zone Management Act. The major provisions of these acts, other relevant federal regulations, and similar state and local regulatons are described in this report. Federal legislation relating to air quality, water quality, and the management of public lands has the greatest potential to influence the location and timing of future energy development in the United States

Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

2016-07-01

Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

2013-04-13

This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Evolution of Requirements and Assumptions for Future Exploration Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Molly; Sargusingh, Miriam; Perry, Jay

2017-01-01

NASA programs are maturing technologies, systems, and architectures to enabling future exploration missions. To increase fidelity as technologies mature, developers must make assumptions that represent the requirements of a future program. Multiple efforts have begun to define these requirements, including team internal assumptions, planning system integration for early demonstrations, and discussions between international partners planning future collaborations. For many detailed life support system requirements, existing NASA documents set limits of acceptable values, but a future vehicle may be constrained in other ways, and select a limited range of conditions. Other requirements are effectively set by interfaces or operations, and may be different for the same technology depending on whether the hard-ware is a demonstration system on the International Space Station, or a critical component of a future vehicle. This paper highlights key assumptions representing potential life support requirements and explanations of the driving scenarios, constraints, or other issues that drive them.

The rules for land use, land use change and forestry under the Kyoto Protocol. Lessons learned for the future climate negotiations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoehne, N.; Wartmann, S.; Herold, A.; Freibauer, A.

2007-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the rules for accounting emissions of land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) for the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. It first describes the rules in detail, it then provides an overview of the history of negotiations that led to these rules and provides resulting conclusions for future international climate negotiations. We conclude that the current rules can be better understood in the light of the negotiation history. For the future, we conclude that first an agreement on the objectives of including LULUCF in the future climate regime should be developed, e.g. to contribute significantly to the ultimate objective of the convention. Further, a solid set of data should be developed that can assess the magnitude of possible options. The rules should be scientifically sound, complete and balanced as well as unambiguous before the quantitative targets are defined. They should further be simple and inclusive to include all carbon pools, i.e. provide incentives to avoid deforestation and unsustainable logging in all countries

Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruci Wang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Simulating future land use/cover changes is of great importance for urban planners and decision-makers, especially in metropolitan areas, to maintain a sustainable environment. This study examines the changes in land use/cover in the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA from 2007 to 2017 as a first step in using supervised classification. Second, based on the map results, we predicted the expected patterns of change in 2027 and 2037 by employing a hybrid model composed of cellular automata and the Markov model. The next step was to decide the model inputs consisting of the modeling variables affecting the distribution of land use/cover in the study area, for instance distance to central business district (CBD and distance to railways, in addition to the classified maps of 2007 and 2017. Finally, we considered three scenarios for simulating land use/cover changes: spontaneous, sub-region development, and green space improvement. Simulation results show varied patterns of change according to the different scenarios. The sub-region development scenario is the most promising because it balances between urban areas, resources, and green spaces. This study provides significant insight for planners about change trends in the TMA and future challenges that might be encountered to maintain a sustainable region.

Inter- and transdisciplinary scenario construction to explore future land-use options in southern Amazonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Regine Schönenberg

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Our aim with this paper is to present a novel approach for developing story lines and scenarios by combining qualitative knowledge and quantitative data from different disciplines and discussing the results with relevant decision makers. This research strategy offers a solid foundation for perspectives into the future. The "laboratory" is the Brazilian Amazon, one of the hotspots of land-use change where local and global interests both collide and converge: local livelihoods are affected by regional and global climate change and by the loss of biodiversity caused by local and global economic interests in agro-industrial land use; such use contributes, in turn, to climate change. After decades of diverse policy interventions the question arises: What can we learn from past trajectories for a more sustainable development in the future? To answer this question, we combined qualitative story lines for the region, reviewed by local experts, with quantitative land-use scenarios, to study their regional and local manifestations in space. These results were then discussed again with local and national experts. Our findings suggest that in-depth knowledge of the diverging perspectives at a very local level is a fundamental prerequisite for downscaling global scenarios and upscaling local approaches to sustainable land-use management and thus, to producing communicable and applicable results.

Perceptions of on-site hunters: Environmental concerns, future land use, and cleanup options at the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burger, J.; Sanchez, J.

1999-01-01

The Department of Energy owns land in 34 states, and most of these lands have been off limits to the public for over 50 years. Although some parts of each site are contaminated, most of many sites are not. With the ending of the Cold War, the department is considering alternative land uses. In this article, the perceptions of hunters and fishermen allowed on site for a limited time were examined, about environmental concerns, future land use, and cleanup options. Although loss of jobs was the foremost concern, preserving parts of the site had more support as a future land use than continuing the nuclear mission, and nearly three-quarters of the sample supported cleanup, regardless of cost. On-site employment was a significant indicator of lower concern about safety and environmental issues, less support for designating the site for research, and more concern for maintaining jobs

Recreational rates and future land-use preferences for four Department of Energy sites: consistency despite demographic and geographical differences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burger, Joanna

2004-01-01

The management of ecosystems has been improved by both a public understanding of ecosystem structure and function and by managers' understanding of public perceptions and attitudes. This is especially true for contaminated lands where there are a variety of remediation, restoration, and future land-use decisions to be made. This paper synthesizes several surveys from four US Department of Energy (DOE) sites in the states of South Carolina, Idaho, Nevada, and New York. Although ethnic composition varied among the sites, age and gender did not. The percentage of the study population engaged in hunting ranged from 30% to 41% and that in fishing ranged from 55% to 74%. Average hunting rates ranged from 9 (New York) to 15 (South Carolina) days/year; average fishing rates ranged from 12 (New Mexico) to 38 (New York) days a year. Despite the demographic and recreational rate differences, there was remarkable agreement about future land uses. Maintaining these DOE sites as National Environmental Research Parks and using them for nonconsumptive recreation rated the highest. The lowest rated future land uses were current and additional nuclear waste storage and the building of homes and factories. People who participated in a recreational activity rated those future land uses higher than nonusers. While these data on recreational rates can be used to assess the potential risk to people using contaminated sites and to aid in setting clean-up standards based on potential risk, the information on land-use preferences can be used by managers to determine future use and to plan for such use. This information is particularly relevant to the Department of Energy's 'Risk-based End State Vision'

Abandonment landscapes: user attitudes, alternative futures and land management in Castro Laboreiro, Portugal

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Zanden, Emma H.; Carvalho-Ribeiro, Sónia M.; Verburg, P.H.

2018-01-01

Land abandonment is an important process for the European Union, which primarily occurs in less productive, remote and mountainous areas with unfavourable conditions for agriculture. Future management directions of these abandonment areas are under debate, with increasing calls to adjust policies to

Land use efficiency: anticipating future demand for land-sector greenhouse gas emissions abatement and managing trade-offs with agriculture, water, and biodiversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Bryan, Brett A; Crossman, Neville D; Nolan, Martin; Li, Jing; Navarro, Javier; Connor, Jeffery D

2015-11-01

Competition for land is increasing, and policy needs to ensure the efficient supply of multiple ecosystem services from land systems. We modelled the spatially explicit potential future supply of ecosystem services in Australia's intensive agricultural land in response to carbon markets under four global outlooks from 2013 to 2050. We assessed the productive efficiency of greenhouse gas emissions abatement, agricultural production, water resources, and biodiversity services and compared these to production possibility frontiers (PPFs). While interacting commodity markets and carbon markets produced efficient outcomes for agricultural production and emissions abatement, more efficient outcomes were possible for water resources and biodiversity services due to weak price signals. However, when only two objectives were considered as per typical efficiency assessments, efficiency improvements involved significant unintended trade-offs for the other objectives and incurred substantial opportunity costs. Considering multiple objectives simultaneously enabled the identification of land use arrangements that were efficient over multiple ecosystem services. Efficient land use arrangements could be selected that meet society's preferences for ecosystem service provision from land by adjusting the metric used to combine multiple services. To effectively manage competition for land via land use efficiency, market incentives are needed that effectively price multiple ecosystem services. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Earth land landing alternatives: Lunar transportation system

Science.gov (United States)

Meyerson, Robert

1992-01-01

The objectives of this study are as follows: (1) develop a landing option such that it is a viable trade option for future NASA missions; (2) provide NASA programs with solid technical support in the landing systems area; (3) develop the technical staff; and (4) advance the state of landing systems technology to apply to future NASA missions. All results are presented in viewgraph format.

Philosophy and safety requirements for land-based nuclear installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kellermann, Otto

1978-01-01

The main ideas of safety philosophy for land-based nuclear installations are presented together with their background of protection goals. Today's requirements for design and quality assurance are deductively shown. Finally a proposition is made for a new balancing of safety philosophy according to the high safety level that nuclear installations have reached

Current and Future Research Directions in Requirements Engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Betty H. C.; Atlee, Joanne M.

In this paper, we review current requirements engineering (RE) research and identify future research directions suggested by emerging software needs. First, we overview the state of the art in RE research. The research is considered with respect to technologies developed to address specific requirements tasks, such as elicitation, modeling, and analysis. Such a review enables us to identify mature areas of research, as well as areas that warrant further investigation. Next, we review several strategies for performing and extending RE research results, to help delineate the scope of future research directions. Finally, we highlight what we consider to be the “hot” current and future research topics, which aim to address RE needs for emerging systems of the future.

Biologically-Inspired Hardware for Land/Aerial Robots

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Future generations of NASA land/aerial robots will be required to operate in the harsh, unpredictable environments of extra-terrestrial bodies including asteroids,...

Integrated assessment of future land use in Brazil under increasing demand for bioenergy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verstegen, Judith; van der Hilst, Floortje; Karssenberg, Derek; Faaij, André

2014-01-01

Environmental impacts of a future increase in demand for bioenergydepend on the magnitude, location and pattern of the direct and indirectland use change of energy cropland expansion. Here we aim at 1)projecting the spatiotemporal pattern of sugar cane expansion and theeffect on other land uses in

WORLD EXPERIENCE OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION LAND USE AND PROTECTIONTAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE REQUIREMENTS OF ECOLOGICAL SAFETY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

l. Sviridova

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Studied global trends of public administration land use and protection. In particular, zemleohoronni measures in the developed world are implemented through rural development policy, based on the conduct of the common agricultural policy, the creation of funds to support farmers, provide technical assistance, development of national programs and future development plans. For the European Union development policy documents on the development of land areas for 5-10 years - the overall trend. Land management activities are conducted in foreign countries on the basis of approved design documentation for land management different direction. Found that the use of land and resource potential in the world is subject to the requirements of environmental safety. Agrarian relations in these countries are based on incentive levers, with direct execution of the rules of use and protection of land. By 2020, the strategy of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union provides funding for joint agricultural market, direct subsidies to farmers and stimulate agricultural development. Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union for its activities fully demonstrates the ability of European economies to maintain the same level of development. State administration of environmental impact on the economic interests of the tenure or land use in countries with market economies include: tax exemptions (to make environmentally oriented activities, soft loans (available on interest rates for environmental investments, subsidies (for the implementation of environmental programs and subsidies (for growing products without pesticides entities. It is proved that the system of economic instruments in environmental policy Ukraine needs to improve, because it is poorly developed. Experience in other countries shows that as we strengthen land management tools (instruments for land administration, and its supporting tools to succeed in the system of rational land use

Pathway to future sustainable land imaging: the compact hyperspectral prism spectrometer

Science.gov (United States)

Kampe, Thomas U.; Good, William S.

2017-09-01

NASA's Sustainable Land Imaging (SLI) program, managed through the Earth Science Technology Office, aims to develop technologies that will provide future Landsat-like measurements. SLI aims to develop a new generation of smaller, more capable, less costly payloads that meet or exceed current imaging capabilities. One projects funded by this program is Ball's Compact Hyperspectral Prism Spectrometer (CHPS), a visible-to-shortwave imaging spectrometer that provides legacy Landsat data products as well as hyperspectral coverage suitable for a broad range of land science products. CHPS exhibits extremely low straylight and accommodates full aperture, full optical path calibration needed to ensure the high radiometric accuracy demanded by SLI measurement objectives. Low polarization sensitivity in visible to near-infrared bands facilitates coastal water science as first demonstrated by the exceptional performance of the Operational Land Imager. Our goal is to mature CHPS imaging spectrometer technology for infusion into the SLI program. Our effort builds on technology development initiated by Ball IRAD investment and includes laboratory and airborne demonstration, data distribution to science collaborators, and maturation of technology for spaceborne demonstration. CHPS is a three year program with expected exiting technology readiness of TRL-6. The 2013 NRC report Landsat and Beyond: Sustaining and Enhancing the Nations Land Imaging Program recommended that the nation should "maintain a sustained, space-based, land-imaging program, while ensuring the continuity of 42-years of multispectral information." We are confident that CHPS provides a path to achieve this goal while enabling new science measurements and significantly reducing the cost, size, and volume of the VSWIR instrument.

Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

Science.gov (United States)

Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

2012-12-01

An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2015-08-01

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm^–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

Simulation of future land use change and climate change impacts on hydrological processes in a tropical catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Marhaento, H.; Booij, M. J.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

2017-12-01

Future hydrological processes in the Samin catchment (278 km2) in Java, Indonesia have been simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using inputs from predicted land use distributions in the period 2030 - 2050, bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) output and output of six Global Climate Models (GCMs) to include climate model uncertainty. Two land use change scenarios namely a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where no measures are taken to control land use change, and a controlled (CON) scenario, where the future land use follows the land use planning, were used in the simulations together with two climate change scenarios namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. It was predicted that in 2050 settlement and agriculture area of the study catchment will increase by 33.9% and 3.5%, respectively under the BAU scenario, whereas agriculture area and evergreen forest will increase by 15.2% and 10.2%, respectively under the CON scenario. In comparison to the baseline conditions (1983 - 2005), the predicted mean annual maximum and minimum temperature in 2030 - 2050 will increase by an average of +10C, while changes in the mean annual rainfall range from -20% to +19% under RCP 4.5 and from -25% to +15% under RCP 8.5. The results show that land use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual stream flow and surface runoff. It was observed that combination of the RCP 4.5 climate scenario and BAU land use scenario resulted in an increase of the mean annual stream flow from -7% to +64% and surface runoff from +21% to +102%, which is 40% and 60% more than when land use change is acting alone. Furthermore, under the CON scenario the annual stream flow and surface runoff could be potentially reduced by up to 10% and 30%, respectively indicating the effectiveness of applied

Spatio-temporal dynamics of regulating ecosystem services in Europe – The role of past and future land use change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sturck, J.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Verburg, P.H.

2015-01-01

Land use is a main driver for changes in supply and demand of regulating ecosystem services (ES). Most current ES inventories are static and do not address dynamics of ES supply resulting from historic and future land use change. This paper analyzes the role of land use change for the supply of two

HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

Science.gov (United States)

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

Variations in the Use of Resources for Food : Land, Nitrogen Fertilizer and Food Nexus

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jose Ibarrola-Rivas, Maria; Nonhebel, Sanderine

2016-01-01

Future dietary changes will increase the global demand for agricultural resources per person. Food production requires several resources which are interrelated: land, water, nutrients and energy. Other studies have calculated the per capita requirements of only one resource (nitrogen or land). In

Land Use, climate change and BIOdiversity in cultural landscapes (LUBIO): Assessing feedbacks and promoting land-use strategies towards a viable future

Science.gov (United States)

Dullinger, Iwona; Bohner, Andreas; Dullinger, Stefan; Essl, Franz; Gaube, Veronika; Haberl, Helmut; Mayer, Andreas; Plutzar, Christoph; Remesch, Alexander

2016-04-01

Land-use and climate change are important, pervasive drivers of global environmental change and pose major threats to global biodiversity. Research to date has mostly focused either on land-use change or on climate change, but rarely on the interactions between both drivers, even though it is expected that systemic feedbacks between changes in climate and land use will have important effects on biodiversity. In particular, climate change will not only alter the pool of plant and animal species capable of thriving in a specific area, it will also force land owners to reconsider their land use decisions. Such changes in land-use practices may have major additional effects on local and regional species composition and abundance. In LUBIO, we will explore the anticipated systemic feedbacks between (1) climate change, (2) land owner's decisions on land use, (3) land-use change, and (4) changes in biodiversity patterns during the coming decades in a regional context which integrates a broad range of land use practices and intensity gradients. To achieve this goal, an integrated socioecological model will be designed and implemented, consisting of three principal components: (1) an agent based model (ABM) that simulates decisions of important actors, (2) a spatially explicit GIS model that translates these decisions into changes in land cover and land use patterns, and (3) a species distribution model (SDM) that calculates changes in biodiversity patterns following from both changes in climate and the land use decisions as simulated in the ABM. Upon integration of these three components, the coupled socioecological model will be used to generate scenarios of future land-use decisions of landowners under climate change and, eventually, the combined effects of climate and land use changes on biodiversity. Model development of the ABM will be supported by a participatory process intended to collect regional and expert knowledge through a series of expert interviews, a series

Monitoring Urban Land Cover/land Use Change in Algiers City Using Landsat Images (1987-2016)

Science.gov (United States)

Bouchachi, B.; Zhong, Y.

2017-09-01

Monitoring the Urban Land Cover/Land Use change detection is important as one of the main driving forces of environmental change because Urbanization is the biggest changes in form of Land, resulting in a decrease in cultivated areas. Using remote sensing ability to solve land resources problems. The purpose of this research is to map the urban areas at different times to monitor and predict possible urban changes, were studied the annual growth urban land during the last 29 years in Algiers City. Improving the productiveness of long-term training in land mapping, were have developed an approach by the following steps: 1) pre-processing for improvement of image characteristics; 2) extract training sample candidates based on the developed methods; and 3) Derive maps and analyzed of Algiers City on an annual basis from 1987 to 2016 using a Supervised Classifier Support Vector Machine (SVMs). Our result shows that the strategy of urban land followed in the region of Algiers City, developed areas mostly were extended to East, West, and South of Central Regions. The urban growth rate is linked with National Office of Statistics data. Future studies are required to understand the impact of urban rapid lands on social, economy and environmental sustainability, it will also close the gap in data of urbanism available, especially on the lack of reliable data, environmental and urban planning for each municipality in Algiers, develop experimental models to predict future land changes with statistically significant confidence.

Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements. Thinking outside the box

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benndorf, R. [Federal Environment Agency, Bismarckplatz 1, D-1419 Berlin (Germany); Federici, S.; Somogyi, Z. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (Italy); Forner, C. [Center for International Forestry Research CIFOR, Jalan CIFOR Situ Gede, Bogor Barat 16680 (Indonesia); Pena, N. [Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, VA 22201 (United States); Rametsteiner, E. [IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria); Sanz, M.J. [Fundacion CEAM, Charles H. Darwin 14, S-46980 Paterna, Valencia (Spain)

2007-06-15

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely 'de-linking' LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change.

Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements: thinking outside the box

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benndorf, R. [Federal Environment Agency, Bismarckplatz 1, D-1419 Berlin (Germany); Federici, S. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (Italy); Forner, C. [Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Jalan CIFOR Situ Gede, Bogor Barat 16680 (Indonesia); Pena, N. [Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, VA 22201 (United States)]. E-mail: penan@pewclimate.org; Rametsteiner, E. [IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria); Sanz, M.J. [Fundacion CEAM, Charles H. Darwin 14, S-46980 Paterna, Valencia (Spain); Somogyi, Z. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (Italy)

2007-06-15

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely 'de-linking' LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change.

Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements: thinking outside the box

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benndorf, R.; Federici, S.; Forner, C.; Pena, N.; Rametsteiner, E.; Sanz, M.J.; Somogyi, Z.

2007-01-01

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely 'de-linking' LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change

Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nitin Kumar Tripathi

2013-07-01

Full Text Available This paper evaluates the possible impacts of climate change and land use change and its combined effects on soil loss and net soil loss (erosion and deposition in the Mae Nam Nan sub-catchment, Thailand. Future climate from two general circulation models (GCMs and a regional circulation model (RCM consisting of HadCM3, NCAR CSSM3 and PRECIS RCM ware downscaled using a delta change approach. Cellular Automata/Markov (CA_Markov model was used to characterize future land use. Soil loss modeling using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE and sedimentation modeling in Idrisi software were employed to estimate soil loss and net soil loss under direct impact (climate change, indirect impact (land use change and full range of impact (climate and land use change to generate results at a 10 year interval between 2020 and 2040. Results indicate that soil erosion and deposition increase or decrease, depending on which climate and land use scenarios are considered. The potential for climate change to increase soil loss rate, soil erosion and deposition in future periods was established, whereas considerable decreases in erosion are projected when land use is increased from baseline periods. The combined climate and land use change analysis revealed that land use planning could be adopted to mitigate soil erosion and deposition in the future, in conjunction with the projected direct impact of climate change.

San Juan National Forest Land Management Planning Support System (LMPSS) requirements definition

Science.gov (United States)

Werth, L. F. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The role of remote sensing data as it relates to a three-component land management planning system (geographic information, data base management, and planning model) can be understood only when user requirements are known. Personnel at the San Juan National Forest in southwestern Colorado were interviewed to determine data needs for managing and monitoring timber, rangelands, wildlife, fisheries, soils, water, geology and recreation facilities. While all the information required for land management planning cannot be obtained using remote sensing techniques, valuable information can be provided for the geographic information system. A wide range of sensors such as small and large format cameras, synthetic aperture radar, and LANDSAT data should be utilized. Because of the detail and accuracy required, high altitude color infrared photography should serve as the baseline data base and be supplemented and updated with data from the other sensors.

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

Science.gov (United States)

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for

Climate change is about the future of our land, our resilience and our security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barbut, Monique

2014-04-01

While the IPCC report focuses on the impacts of climate change and warns of the possibility of increased floods, drought, conflict and economic losses if carbon emissions continue unabated, it fails to capture the key role of adaptation; that is, ecosystem-based solutions for managing climate risks. According to the author, these solutions are at hand without additional finance; all that is required is a realignment of investment flows. This should not be seen as a threat to vested interests but rather as an opportunity for more equitable development. Investing in practical solutions that transform lives and increase adaptive capacity would be cheaper and work better than investing in walls, wars and relief. Improving the resilience and well-being of the rural poor and other land-dependent communities will improve our own well-being, our national security, and help ensure international stability today and in the future

Effects of future climate and land use scenarios on riverine source water quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Delpla, Ianis; Rodriguez, Manuel J

2014-09-15

Surface water quality is particularly sensitive to land use practices and climatic events that affect its catchment. The relative influence of a set of watershed characteristics (climate, land use, morphology and pedology) and climatic variables on two key water quality parameters (turbidity and fecal coliforms (FC)) was examined in 24 eastern Canadian catchments at various spatial scales (1 km, 5 km, 10 km and the entire catchment). A regression analysis revealed that the entire catchment was a better predictor of water quality. Based on this information, linear mixed effect models for predicting turbidity and FC levels were developed. A set of land use and climate scenarios was considered and applied within the water quality models. Four land use scenarios (no change, same rate of variation, optimistic and pessimistic) and three climate change scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) were tested and variations for the near future (2025) were assessed and compared to the reference period (2000). Climate change impacts on water quality remained low annually for this time horizon (turbidity: +1.5%, FC: +1.6%, A2 scenario). On the other hand, the influence of land use changes appeared to predominate. Significant benefits for both parameters could be expected following the optimistic scenario (turbidity: -16.4%, FC: -6.3%; p climate change impacts could become equivalent to those modeled for land use for this horizon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Can conservation funding be left to carbon finance? Evidence from participatory future land use scenarios in Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Ravikumar, Ashwin; Larjavaara, Markku; Larson, Anne; Kanninen, Markku

2017-01-01

Revenues derived from carbon have been seen as an important tool for supporting forest conservation over the past decade. At the same time, there is high uncertainty about how much revenue can reasonably be expected from land use emissions reductions initiatives. Despite this uncertainty, REDD+ projects and conservation initiatives that aim to take advantage of available or, more commonly, future funding from carbon markets have proliferated. This study used participatory multi-stakeholder workshops to develop divergent future scenarios of land use in eight landscapes in four countries around the world: Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico. The results of these future scenario building exercises were analyzed using a new tool, CarboScen, for calculating the landscape carbon storage implications of different future land use scenarios. The findings suggest that potential revenues from carbon storage or emissions reductions are significant in some landscapes (most notably the peat forests of Indonesia), and much less significant in others (such as the low-carbon forests of Zanzibar and the interior of Tanzania). The findings call into question the practicality of many conservation programs that hinge on expectations of future revenue from carbon finance. The future scenarios-based approach is useful to policy-makers and conservation program developers in distinguishing between landscapes where carbon finance can substantially support conservation, and landscapes where other strategies for conservation and land use should be prioritized.

Incorporating land-use requirements and environmental constraints in low-carbon electricity planning for California.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Grace C; Torn, Margaret S; Williams, James H

2015-02-17

The land-use implications of deep decarbonization of the electricity sector (e.g., 80% below 1990 emissions) have not been well-characterized quantitatively or spatially. We assessed the operational-phase land-use requirements of different low-carbon scenarios for California in 2050 and found that most scenarios have comparable direct land footprints. While the per MWh footprint of renewable energy (RE) generation is initially higher, that of fossil and nuclear generation increases over time with continued fuel use. We built a spatially explicit model to understand the interactions between resource quality and environmental constraints in a high RE scenario (>70% of total generation). We found that there is sufficient land within California to meet the solar and geothermal targets, but areas with the highest quality wind and solar resources also tend to be those with high conservation value. Development of some land with lower conservation value results in lower average capacity factors, but also provides opportunity for colocation of different generation technologies, which could significantly improve land-use efficiency and reduce permitting, leasing, and transmission infrastructure costs. Basing siting decisions on environmentally-constrained long-term RE build-out requirements produces significantly different results, including better conservation outcomes, than implied by the current piecemeal approach to planning.

Mars: Periglacial Morphology and Implications for Future Landing Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Heldmann, Jennifer L.; Schurmeier, Lauren; McKay, Christopher; Davila, Alfonso; Stoker, Carol; Marinova, Margarita; Wilhelm, Mary Beth

2015-01-01

At the Mars Phoenix landing site and in much of the Martian northern plains, there is ice-cemented ground beneath a layer of dry permafrost. Unlike most permafrost on Earth, though, this ice is not liquid at any time of year. However, in past epochs at higher obliquity the surface conditions during summer may have resulted in warmer conditions and possible melting. This situation indicates that the ice-cemented ground in the north polar plains is likely to be a candidate for the most recently habitable place on Mars as near-surface ice likely provided adequate water activity approximately 5 Myr ago. The high elevation Dry Valleys of Antarctica provide the best analog on Earth of Martian ground ice. These locations are the only places on Earth where ice-cemented ground is found beneath dry permafrost. The Dry Valleys are a hyper-arid polar desert environment and in locations above 1500 m elevation, such as University Valley, air temperatures do not exceed 0 C. Thus, similarly to Mars, liquid water is largely absent here and instead the hydrologic cycle is dominated by frozen ice and vapor phase processes such as sublimation. These conditions make the high elevation Dry Valleys a key Mars analog location where periglacial processes and geomorphic features can be studied in situ. This talk will focus on studies of University Valley as a Mars analog for periglacial morphology and ice stability. We will review a landing site selection study encompassing this information gleaned from the Antarctic terrestrial analog studies plus Mars spacecraft data analysis to identify candidate landing sites for a future mission to search for life on Mars.

Predicting Future Training Opportunities Using the Land-Use Evolution and Impact Assessment Model

Science.gov (United States)

2007-10-01

not require surveys of local populations or other time-intensive data gathering methods. ERDC/CERL SR-07-15 3 board records, local chamber of commerce records...neighbor, Fort Benning has been identified as an Army installation threatened by encroachment (Fort Benning 2004; Greater Columbus Georgia Chamber of Commerce 2004...worked with the Greater Columbus Consolidated Chamber of Commerce to create a Joint Land Use (JLUS) plan intended to implement buffer zones, land

Forecasts of county-level land uses under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

David N. Wear

2011-01-01

Accurately forecasting future forest conditions and the implications for ecosystem services depends on understanding land use dynamics. In support of the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, we forecast changes in land uses for the coterminous United States in response to three scenarios. Our land use models forecast urbanization in response to the...

Developing a New North American Land Cover Product at 30m Resolution: Methods, Results and Future Plans

Science.gov (United States)

Homer, C.; Colditz, R. R.; Latifovic, R.; Llamas, R. M.; Pouliot, D.; Danielson, P.; Meneses, C.; Victoria, A.; Ressl, R.; Richardson, K.; Vulpescu, M.

2017-12-01

Land cover and land cover change information at regional and continental scales has become fundamental for studying and understanding the terrestrial environment. With recent advances in computer science and freely available image archives, continental land cover mapping has been advancing to higher spatial resolution products. The North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) remains the principal provider of seamless land cover maps of North America. Founded in 2006, this collaboration among the governments of Canada, Mexico and the United States has released two previous products based on 250m MODIS images, including a 2005 land cover and a 2005-2010 land cover change product. NALCMS has recently completed the next generation North America land cover product, based upon 30m Landsat images. This product now provides the first ever 30m land cover produced for the North American continent, providing 19 classes of seamless land cover. This presentation provides an overview of country-specific image classification processes, describes the continental map production process, provides results for the North American continent and discusses future plans. NALCMS is coordinated by the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) and all products can be obtained at their website - www.cec.org.

14 CFR 135.183 - Performance requirements: Land aircraft operated over water.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... operated over water. 135.183 Section 135.183 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... AND OPERATIONS OPERATING REQUIREMENTS: COMMUTER AND ON DEMAND OPERATIONS AND RULES GOVERNING PERSONS... operated over water. No person may operate a land aircraft carrying passengers over water unless— (a) It is...

A framework for benchmarking land models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Q. Luo

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Land models, which have been developed by the modeling community in the past few decades to predict future states of ecosystems and climate, have to be critically evaluated for their performance skills of simulating ecosystem responses and feedback to climate change. Benchmarking is an emerging procedure to measure performance of models against a set of defined standards. This paper proposes a benchmarking framework for evaluation of land model performances and, meanwhile, highlights major challenges at this infant stage of benchmark analysis. The framework includes (1 targeted aspects of model performance to be evaluated, (2 a set of benchmarks as defined references to test model performance, (3 metrics to measure and compare performance skills among models so as to identify model strengths and deficiencies, and (4 model improvement. Land models are required to simulate exchange of water, energy, carbon and sometimes other trace gases between the atmosphere and land surface, and should be evaluated for their simulations of biophysical processes, biogeochemical cycles, and vegetation dynamics in response to climate change across broad temporal and spatial scales. Thus, one major challenge is to select and define a limited number of benchmarks to effectively evaluate land model performance. The second challenge is to develop metrics of measuring mismatches between models and benchmarks. The metrics may include (1 a priori thresholds of acceptable model performance and (2 a scoring system to combine data–model mismatches for various processes at different temporal and spatial scales. The benchmark analyses should identify clues of weak model performance to guide future development, thus enabling improved predictions of future states of ecosystems and climate. The near-future research effort should be on development of a set of widely acceptable benchmarks that can be used to objectively, effectively, and reliably evaluate fundamental properties

Transformative optimisation of agricultural land use to meet future food demands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lian Pin Koh

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The human population is expected to reach ∼9 billion by 2050. The ensuing demands for water, food and energy would intensify land-use conflicts and exacerbate environmental impacts. Therefore we urgently need to reconcile our growing consumptive needs with environmental protection. Here, we explore the potential of a land-use optimisation strategy to increase global agricultural production on two major groups of crops: cereals and oilseeds. We implemented a spatially-explicit computer simulation model across 173 countries based on the following algorithm: on any cropland, always produce the most productive crop given all other crops currently being produced locally and the site-specific biophysical, economic and technological constraints to production. Globally, this strategy resulted in net increases in annual production of cereal and oilseed crops from 1.9 billion to 2.9 billion tons (46%, and from 427 million to 481 million tons (13%, respectively, without any change in total land area harvested for cereals or oilseeds. This thought experiment demonstrates that, in theory, more optimal use of existing farmlands could help meet future crop demands. In practice there might be cultural, social and institutional barriers that limit the full realisation of this theoretical potential. Nevertheless, these constraints have to be weighed against the consequences of not producing enough food, particularly in regions already facing food shortages.

Assessing Land Degradation and Desertification Using Vegetation Index Data: Current Frameworks and Future Directions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas P. Higginbottom

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Land degradation and desertification has been ranked as a major environmental and social issue for the coming decades. Thus, the observation and early detection of degradation is a primary objective for a number of scientific and policy organisations, with remote sensing methods being a candidate choice for the development of monitoring systems. This paper reviews the statistical and ecological frameworks of assessing land degradation and desertification using vegetation index data. The development of multi-temporal analysis as a desertification assessment technique is reviewed, with a focus on how current practice has been shaped by controversy and dispute within the literature. The statistical techniques commonly employed are examined from both a statistical as well as ecological point of view, and recommendations are made for future research directions. The scientific requirements for degradation and desertification monitoring systems identified here are: (I the validation of methodologies in a robust and comparable manner; and (II the detection of degradation at minor intensities and magnitudes. It is also established that the multi-temporal analysis of vegetation index data can provide a sophisticated measure of ecosystem health and variation, and that, over the last 30 years, considerable progress has been made in the respective research.

Potential Impact of Land Use Change on Future Regional Climate in the Southeastern U.S.: Reforestation and Crop Land Conversion

Science.gov (United States)

Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A. P.; Liu, P.; Tsigaridis, Konstantinos; Hu, Y.; Nenes, A.; Stone, B.; Russell, A. G.

2013-01-01

The impact of future land use and land cover changes (LULCC) on regional and global climate is one of the most challenging aspects of understanding anthropogenic climate change. We study the impacts of LULCC on regional climate in the southeastern U.S. by downscaling the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model E to the regional scale using a spectral nudging technique with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Climate-relevant meteorological fields are compared for two southeastern U.S. LULCC scenarios to the current land use/cover for four seasons of the year 2050. In this work it is shown that reforestation of cropland in the southeastern U.S. tends to warm surface air by up to 0.5 K, while replacing forested land with cropland tends to cool the surface air by 0.5 K. Processes leading to this response are investigated and sensitivity analyses conducted. The sensitivity analysis shows that results are most sensitive to changes in albedo and the stomatal resistance. Evaporative cooling of croplands also plays an important role in regional climate. Implications of LULCC on air quality are discussed. Summertime warming associated with reforestation of croplands could increase the production of some secondary pollutants, while a higher boundary layer will decrease pollutant concentrations; wintertime warming may decrease emissions from biomass burning from wood stoves

Water Footprint and Land Requirement of Solar Thermochemical Jet-Fuel Production.

Science.gov (United States)

Falter, Christoph; Pitz-Paal, Robert

2017-11-07

The production of alternative fuels via the solar thermochemical pathway has the potential to provide supply security and to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. H 2 O and CO 2 are converted to liquid hydrocarbon fuels using concentrated solar energy mediated by redox reactions of a metal oxide. Because attractive production locations are in arid regions, the water footprint and the land requirement of this fuel production pathway are analyzed. The water footprint consists of 7.4 liters per liter of jet fuel of direct demand on-site and 42.4 liters per liter of jet fuel of indirect demand, where the dominant contributions are the mining of the rare earth oxide ceria, the manufacturing of the solar concentration infrastructure, and the cleaning of the mirrors. The area-specific productivity is found to be 33 362 liters per hectare per year of jet fuel equivalents, where the land coverage is mainly due to the concentration of solar energy for heat and electricity. The water footprint and the land requirement of the solar thermochemical fuel pathway are larger than the best power-to-liquid pathways but an order of magnitude lower than the best biomass-to-liquid pathways. For the production of solar thermochemical fuels arid regions are best-suited, and for biofuels regions of a moderate and humid climate.

Site Study Plan for land use, Deaf Smith County site, Texas: Environmental Field Program: Preliminary draft

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-06-01

The Land Use Site Study Plan describes a field program consisting of characterization of the site; seismic survey rights-of-way and transportation and utility corridors, the vicinity, the region, future land use, and monitoring land-use change. Aerial photography will be used to characterize the site, seismic rows and transportation and utility corridors, and the vicinity. The resulting land-use maps and overlays will then be verified in the field. Interviews with farm managers and local experts will provide additional information. A Geographic Information System (GIS) and satellite imagery will be used to characterize the region, monitor land-use change, and provide information to assist with the future land use study. The site study plan describes the study design and rationale, the filed data collection procedures and equipment, the data analysis methods and application of results, the data management strategy, the schedule of field activities, the personnel requirements and management of the study, and the study's quality assurance program. The directives and requirements that drive these studies are derived from the Salt Repository Project Requirements Document. 51 refs; 6 figs; 3 tabs

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

Science.gov (United States)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

2017-12-01

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Land application of sewage sludge: A guide for land appliers on the requirements of the federal standards for the use or disposal of sewage sludge, 40 CFR part 503

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1994-12-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency promulgated a regulation at 40 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 503 to ensure that sewage sludge is used or disposed of in a way that protects human health and the environment. Part 503 imposes requirements for the land application, surface disposal, and incineration of sewage sludge. The manual focuses on land application, providing guidance to land appliers of sewage sludge. The purpose of the document is to provide the land applier with sufficient guidance to comply fully with all applicable Part 503 requirements. The guidance is structured to first provide a general understanding of the Rule and its underlying principles, including definitions of sewage sludge, land application, and an explanation of who under the Rule is considered a land applier.

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Forecasting land cover change impacts on drinking water treatment costs in Minneapolis, Minnesota

Science.gov (United States)

Woznicki, S. A.; Wickham, J.

2017-12-01

Source protection is a critical aspect of drinking water treatment. The benefits of protecting source water quality in reducing drinking water treatment costs are clear. However, forecasting the impacts of environmental change on source water quality and its potential to influence future treatment processes is lacking. The drinking water treatment plant in Minneapolis, MN has recognized that land cover change threatens water quality in their source watershed, the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Over 1,000 km2 of forests, wetlands, and grasslands in the UMRB were lost to agriculture from 2008-2013. This trend, coupled with a projected population increase of one million people in Minnesota by 2030, concerns drinking water treatment plant operators in Minneapolis with respect to meeting future demand for clean water in the UMRB. The objective of this study is to relate land cover change (forest and wetland loss, agricultural expansion, urbanization) to changes in treatment costs for the Minneapolis, MN drinking water utility. To do this, we first developed a framework to determine the relationship between land cover change and water quality in the context of recent historical changes and projected future changes in land cover. Next we coupled a watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to projections of land cover change from the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model for the mid-21st century. Using historical Minneapolis drinking water treatment data (chemical usage and costs), source water quality in the UMRB was linked to changes in treatment requirements as a function of projected future land cover change. These analyses will quantify the value of natural landscapes in protecting drinking water quality and future treatment processes requirements. In addition, our study provides the Minneapolis drinking water utility with information critical to their planning and capital improvement process.

Evaluating Hydrological Response of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico) with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) Tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize potential hydrologic impacts from future urban gro...

Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

Science.gov (United States)

Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

2014-08-01

Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined

Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Sebastian Martinuzzi; Gregorio I. Gavier-Pizarro; Ariel E. Lugo; Volker C. Radeloff

2015-01-01

Rapid global changes due to changing land use, climate, and non-native species are altering environmental conditions, resulting in more novel communities with unprecedented species combinations. Understanding how future anthropogenic changes may affect novelty in ecosystems is important to advance environmental management and ecological research in the Anthropocene....

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Le Page

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Future land use and concerns about the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory: A survey of urban dwellers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burger, J.; Roush, D.; Wartenberg, D.; Gochfeld, M.

1999-01-01

The authors examined environmental concerns and future land-use preferences of 487 people attending the Boise River Festival in Boise, Idaho, USA, about the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (NEEL), owned by the US Department of Energy (DOE). They were particularly interested in the perceptions of urban dwellers living at some distance from the facility, since attitudes and perceptions are usually examined for people living near such facilities. More than 50% of the people were most worried about contamination and about waste storage and transport, another 23% were concerned about human health and accidents and spills, and the rest listed other concerns such as jobs and the economy of education. When given a list of possible concerns, accidents and spills, storage of current nuclear materials, and storage of additional nuclear materials were rated the highest. Thus both open-ended and structured questions identified nuclear storage and accidents and spills as the most important concerns, even for people living far from a DOE site. The highest rated future land used were National Environmental Research Park, recreation, and returning the land to the Shoshone-Bannock tribes; the lowest rated future land uses were homes and increased nuclear waste storage. These relative rankings are similar to those obtained for other Idahoans living closer to the site and for the people living near the Savannah River Site. The concern expressed about accidents and spills and waste storage translated into a desire not to see additional waste brought to INEEL and a low rating for using INEEL for building homes

Land use/land cover and land capability data for evaluating land utilization and official land use planning in Indramayu Regency, West Java, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Ambarwulan, W.; Widiatmaka; Nahib, I.

2018-05-01

Land utilization in Indonesia is regulated in an official spatial land use planning (OSLUP), stipulated by government regulations. However in fact, land utilizations are often develops inconsistent with regulations. OSLUP itself is also not usually compatible with sustainable land utilizations. This study aims to evaluate current land utilizations and OSLUP in Indramayu Regency, West Java. The methodology used is the integrated analysis using land use and land cover (LU/LC) data, land capability data and spatial pattern in OSLUP. Actual LU/LC are interpreted using SPOT-6 imagery of 2014. The spatial data of land capabilities are derived from land capability classification using field data and laboratory analysis. The confrontation between these spatial data is interpreted in terms of future direction for sustainable land use planning. The results shows that Indramayu regency consists of 8 types of LU/LC. Land capability in research area range from class II to VIII. Only a small portion of the land in Indramayu has been used in accordance with land capability, but most of the land is used exceeding its land capability.

Modeling vulnerability of groundwater to pollution under future scenarios of climate change and biofuels-related land use change: a case study in North Dakota, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ruopu; Merchant, James W

2013-03-01

Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality. Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use conditions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with high vulnerability will expand northward and/or northwestward in Eastern North Dakota under different scenarios. GIS-based models that account for future changes in climate and land use can help decision-makers identify potential future threats to groundwater quality and take early steps to protect this critical resource. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of future land use and ecosystem changes on boundary-layer meteorology and air quality

Science.gov (United States)

Tai, A. P. K.; Wang, L.; Sadeke, M.

2017-12-01

Land vegetation plays key roles shaping boundary-layer meteorology and air quality via various pathways. Vegetation can directly affect surface ozone via dry deposition and biogenic emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Transpiration from land plants can also influence surface temperature, soil moisture and boundary-layer mixing depth, thereby indirectly affecting surface ozone. Future changes in the distribution, density and physiology of vegetation are therefore expected to have major ramifications for surface ozone air quality. In our study, we examine two aspects of potential vegetation changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in the fully coupled land-atmosphere configuration, and evaluate their implications on meteorology and air quality: 1) land use change, which alters the distribution of plant functional types and total leaf density; and 2) ozone damage on vegetation, which alters leaf density and physiology (e.g., stomatal resistance). We find that, following the RCP8.5 scenario for 2050, global cropland expansion induces only minor changes in surface ozone in tropical and subtropical regions, but statistically significant changes by up to +4 ppbv in midlatitude North America and East Asia, mostly due to higher surface temperature that enhances biogenic VOC emissions, and reduced dry deposition to a lesser degree. These changes are in turn to driven mostly by meteorological changes that include a shift from latent to sensible heat in the surface energy balance and reduced soil moisture, reflecting not only local responses but also a northward expansion of the Hadley Cell. On the other hand, ozone damage on vegetation driven by rising anthropogenic emissions is shown to induce a further enhancement of ozone by up to +6 ppbv in midlatitude regions by 2050. This reflects a strong localized positive feedback, with severe ozone damage in polluted regions generally inducing stomatal closure, which in turn reduces transpiration, increases

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE) and the San Pedro River Basin (U.S./Mexico).

Science.gov (United States)

Barlow, J. E.; Burns, I. S.; Guertin, D. P.; Kepner, W. G.; Goodrich, D. C.

2016-12-01

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time that was developed and applied on the San Pedro River Basin was expanded and utilized on the South Platte River Basin as well. Future urban growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and implement a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present, evaluate, and compare results from scenarios for watersheds in two different geographic and climatic regions, 3) determine watershed specific implications of this type of future land cover change analysis.

Dynamic modelling of future land use change under urbanization and climate change pressures: application to a case study in central Belgium

Science.gov (United States)

Jacquemin, I.; Fontaine, C. M.; Dendoncker, N.; François, L.; De Vreese, R.; Marek, A.; Mortelmans, D.; Van Herzele, A.; Devillet, G.

2012-04-01

Projecting the future of the evolution of socio-ecological systems to analyse their sustainability under climate or other environmental changes is not straightforward. Current projections usually use process-oriented models describing the complex interactions within the physical/biological systems (ecosystems), while the socio-economic constraints are represented with the help of scenarios. However, the actual evolution can be expected to be much more complex, because of the mutual interactions between ecological and socio-economic systems. To represent these interactions, models must integrate the complex process of human decision at individual or society levels. Moreover, models must be spatially explicit, defining elementary spatial units on which can act both the physical factors and the human decision process. These spatial units (e.g., farm fields) must be described not only in terms of energy, water, carbon and nutrient flows, but also in terms of the flow of ecosystem goods and services (EGS) they provide to the society together with the management costs required to sustain them. The provision of EGS may be altered in the future in response to changes in the climate system and the environment, but also through various human pressures on the landscape such as urbanization, as well as through the reaction of human societies to these changes in EGS provision. In the VOTES ("Valuation Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Services in a multifunctional peri-urban space") project, we attempt to model this coupled socio-ecological system by combining a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) with an agent-based model (ABM). The DVM (CARAIB; Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) model describes the evolution of physical and biological processes in the ecosystems, i.e. the impact of climate change and land management on the energy, water and carbon budgets, as well as the productivity of each simulated plant species present on each land unit. The original

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France

OpenAIRE

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J. J.; Pag?, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by takin...

Impacts of historic and projected land-cover, land-use, and land-management change on carbon and water fluxes: The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP)

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, D. M.; Lombardozzi, D. L.; Lawrence, P.; Hurtt, G. C.

2017-12-01

Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to intensify to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the broad question of impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) as well as more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, and data requirements in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. LUMIP is multi-faceted and aims to advance our understanding of land-use change from several perspectives. In particular, LUMIP includes a factorial set of land-only simulations that differ from each other with respect to the specific treatment of land use or land management (e.g., irrigation active or not, crop fertilization active or not, wood harvest on or not), or in terms of prescribed climate. This factorial series of experiments serves several purposes and is designed to provide a detailed assessment of how the specification of land-cover change and land management affects the carbon, water, and energy cycle response to land-use change. The potential analyses that are possible through this set of experiments are vast. For example, comparing a control experiment with all land management active to an experiment with no irrigation allows a multi-model assessment of whether or not the increasing use of irrigation during the 20th century is likely to have significantly altered trends of regional water and energy fluxes (and therefore climate) and/or crop yield and carbon fluxes in agricultural regions. Here, we will present preliminary results from the factorial set of experiments utilizing the Community Land Model (CLM5). The analyses presented here will help guide multi-model analyses once the full set of LUMIP simulations are available.

Advancing Lidar Sensors Technologies for Next Generation Landing Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Amzajerdian, Farzin; Hines, Glenn D.; Roback, Vincent E.; Petway, Larry B.; Barnes, Bruce W.; Brewster, Paul F.; Pierrottet, Diego F.; Bulyshev, Alexander

2015-01-01

Missions to solar systems bodies must meet increasingly ambitious objectives requiring highly reliable "precision landing", and "hazard avoidance" capabilities. Robotic missions to the Moon and Mars demand landing at pre-designated sites of high scientific value near hazardous terrain features, such as escarpments, craters, slopes, and rocks. Missions aimed at paving the path for colonization of the Moon and human landing on Mars need to execute onboard hazard detection and precision maneuvering to ensure safe landing near previously deployed assets. Asteroid missions require precision rendezvous, identification of the landing or sampling site location, and navigation to the highly dynamic object that may be tumbling at a fast rate. To meet these needs, NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) has developed a set of advanced lidar sensors under the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) project. These lidar sensors can provide precision measurement of vehicle relative proximity, velocity, and orientation, and high resolution elevation maps of the surface during the descent to the targeted body. Recent flights onboard Morpheus free-flyer vehicle have demonstrated the viability of ALHAT lidar sensors for future landing missions to solar system bodies.

Requirements report for SSTO vertical take-off and horizontal landing vehicle

Science.gov (United States)

Greenberg, H. S.

1994-01-01

This document describes the detailed design requirements and design criteria to support Structures/TPS Technology development for SSTO winged vehicle configurations that use vertical take-off and horizontal landing and delivers 25,000 lb payloads to a 220 nm circular orbit at an inclination of 51.6 degrees or 40,000 lb payloads to a 150 nm circular orbit at a 28.5 degree inclination.

Water and Land Use Efficiency in Current and Potential Future US Corn and Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Warner, E. S.; Zhang, Y.; Newmark, R. L.

2012-12-01

Biofuels represent an opportunity for domestic fuel production from renewable energy sources with potential environmental and social benefits such as reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) and promoting rural development. However, as demand for biofuel continues to increase worldwide, concerns about land competition between food and fuel, excessive water usage and other unintended environmental consequences have grown. Through a comparative study between US corn ethanol and Brazilian sugarcane ethanol, we examine the energy, land, water and GHG performance of the two largest industrial fuel ethanol production systems in the world. Our comparisons include current and potential future systems with improved agronomic practices, crop yields, ethanol conversion processes, and utilization of agricultural residues. Our results suggest that the average water footprints of US corn ethanol and Brazilian sugarcane ethanol are fairly close (108 and 110 m3/GJ of ethanol, respectively) while the variations can range from 50 to 250 m3/GJ for sugarcane ethanol and 50 to380 m3/GJ for corn ethanol. Results emphasize the need to examine the water footprint within the context of local and regional climatic variability, water availability, competing uses (e.g. agricultural, industrial, and municipal water needs) and other ecosystem constraints. Research is under way (at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and other institutions) to develop models to analyze water supply and demand at the watershed-scale for current and future biomass production, and to understand the tradeoffs among water supply, demand and quality due to more intensive agricultural practices and expansion of biofuels. Land use efficiency metrics, with regards to life cycle GHG emissions (without land use change) savings through gasoline displacement with ethanol, illustrate the progression of the biofuel industry and the importance of maximizing bioenergy production by utilizing both the crops and the residues. A recent

Variations in the Use of Resources for Food: Land, Nitrogen Fertilizer and Food Nexus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María José Ibarrola-Rivas

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Future dietary changes will increase the global demand for agricultural resources per person. Food production requires several resources which are interrelated: land, water, nutrients and energy. Other studies have calculated the per capita requirements of only one resource (nitrogen or land. In this paper, we combine several parameters (diets, production systems and nitrogen-land trade-off in one analysis in order to provide a more integrated assessment of the impacts of the use of agricultural resources for food. We estimated the trade-off between the per capita use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer and crop land. With our methodology, we are able to identify separately the impacts of the type of diet and of the type of production system. We use national level data of five countries as examples of global extremes: from extensive to highly intensive systems, and from very basic diets to very affluent diets. The present differences in diets and production systems result in large differences in the per capita use of resources which ranges from 3 to 30 kg of nitrogen fertilizer use per person, and from 1800 to 4500 m2 of arable land use per person. As the results show, in 2050, the average per capita availability of crop land will not be enough to produce food for affluent diets with present production systems. Our results are useful to assess future requirements of nitrogen fertilizer for the limited land available on the planet.

Requirements report for SSTO vertical take-off/horizontal landing vehicle

Science.gov (United States)

Greenberg, H. S.

1994-07-01

This document describes the detailed design requirements and design criteria to support Structures/TPS Technology development for SSTO winged vehicle configurations that use vertical take-off and horizontal landing and deliver 25,000 lb payloads to a 220 nm circular orbit at an inclination of 51.6 degrees or 40,000 lb payloads to a 150 nm circular orbit at a 28.5 degree of inclination. This document will be updated on a timely basis as informatIon becomes available throughout the project.

Drivers of Land Use Change and the Role of Palm Oil Production in Indonesia and Malaysia. Overview of Past Developments and Future Projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wicke, Birka; Sikkema, Richard; Dornburg, Veronika; Junginger, Martin; Faaij, Andre

2008-07-01

This study provides insight into land use changes (LUC) in Indonesia and Malaysia and into the specific role that palm oil production and its expansion have played in the past and may play in the future in both countries. In relation to future land use changes induced by palm oil production expansion also the GHG emissions of this LUC are analysed to indicate the sustainability (from a GHG emission perspective) of the various palm oil expansion projections

Working landscapes: the future of land use policy?

Science.gov (United States)

Marc Miller; Thomas E. Sheridan; Susan Charnley; Christy Plumer; Jim Lyons; Tom Martin

2015-01-01

The history of land use in the American West has traditionally been one of conflict, but the divisive relationships between ranchers, foresters, land management agencies, recreational users, and conservationists are transforming. Grassroots coalitions have developed among unlikely allies. Together, they are advocating for management approaches that incorporate local...

Transformation of Agricultural Land for Urbanisation, Infrastructural Development and Question of Future Food Security: Cases from Parts of Hugli District, West Bengal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giyasuddin Siddique

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Developing countries of the world encounter urbanisation and infrastructural development in or around the fertile tracts and the absence of any landuse plan for desired land use change has led to conversion of farmlands, which is detrimental to future food security and environmental quality. Hugli district is traditionally well known as one of the most prosperous agricultural regions of West Bengal but the district is experiencing rapid urban extension and infrastructural development towards productive agricultural land since 1991. This has caused decline in the amount of agricultural production which may be treated as an indicator of increasing threat to the long run sustainable livelihood security of the people of the whole of West Bengal. This article critically explores the transformation of agricultural (farm land because of growing rate of urbanisation and infrastructural development, which in turn poses the question of threat to food (in security. Although, this is a growing problem across the universe, this article probes the future food security questions of Hugli district, West Bengal by examining the impact of the highly intertwined indicators of urbanisation and infrastructural development on agricultural (farm land use and its effect on food security. Regression analysis, Spearman’s Ranking Correlation Coefficient, Remote Sensing technologies, Markov Chain Model, Projection of future population growth and yield rate are employed to understand the depth of the problem. The result not only shows a direct negative correlation between urban extension and agricultural areal contraction but also the supervised classification of satellite imageries shows that there is rapid change of rural land use from 1996-2016. There is no match between future population growth and future yield rate of crops and the Markov Chain Model further predicts that the cropland will decrease from 62.77% to 42.90% and the built up area will increase from 31

Experimental Design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arnott, James [AGCI

2015-10-30

The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Experimental design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios,” on August 3-8, 2014 in Aspen, CO. Claudia Tebaldi (NCAR) and Brian O’Neill (NCAR) served as co-chairs for the workshop. The Organizing committee also included Dave Lawrence (NCAR), Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR), George Hurtt (University of Maryland), & Detlef van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environmental Change). The meeting included the participation of 22 scientists representing many of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 110 participant days.

Trajectory Guidance for Mars Robotic Precursors: Aerocapture, Entry, Descent, and Landing

Science.gov (United States)

Sostaric, Ronald R.; Zumwalt, Carlie; Garcia-Llama, Eduardo; Powell, Richard; Shidner, Jeremy

2011-01-01

Future crewed missions to Mars require improvements in landed mass capability beyond that which is possible using state-of-the-art Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) systems. Current systems are capable of an estimated maximum landed mass of 1-1.5 metric tons (MT), while human Mars studies require 20-40 MT. A set of technologies were investigated by the EDL Systems Analysis (SA) project to assess the performance of candidate EDL architectures. A single architecture was selected for the design of a robotic precursor mission, entitled Exploration Feed Forward (EFF), whose objective is to demonstrate these technologies. In particular, inflatable aerodynamic decelerators (IADs) and supersonic retro-propulsion (SRP) have been shown to have the greatest mass benefit and extensibility to future exploration missions. In order to evaluate these technologies and develop the mission, candidate guidance algorithms have been coded into the simulation for the purposes of studying system performance. These guidance algorithms include aerocapture, entry, and powered descent. The performance of the algorithms for each of these phases in the presence of dispersions has been assessed using a Monte Carlo technique.

Needs and Requirements for Future Research Reactors (ORNL Perspectives)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ilas, Germina [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bryan, Chris [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Gehin, Jess C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2016-02-10

The High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a vital national and international resource for neutron science research, production of radioisotopes, and materials irradiation. While HFIR is expected to continue operation for the foreseeable future, interest is growing in understanding future research reactors features, needs, and requirements. To clarify, discuss, and compile these needs from the perspective of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) research and development (R&D) missions, a workshop, titled “Needs and Requirements for Future Research Reactors”, was held at ORNL on May 12, 2015. The workshop engaged ORNL staff that is directly involved in research using HFIR to collect valuable input on the reactor’s current and future missions. The workshop provided an interactive forum for a fruitful exchange of opinions, and included a mix of short presentations and open discussions. ORNL staff members made 15 technical presentations based on their experience and areas of expertise, and discussed those capabilities of the HFIR and future research reactors that are essential for their current and future R&D needs. The workshop was attended by approximately 60 participants from three ORNL directorates. The agenda is included in Appendix A. This document summarizes the feedback provided by workshop contributors and participants. It also includes information and insights addressing key points that originated from the dialogue started at the workshop. A general overview is provided on the design features and capabilities of high performance research reactors currently in use or under construction worldwide. Recent and ongoing design efforts in the US and internationally are briefly summarized, followed by conclusions and recommendations.

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE)

Science.gov (United States)

Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologi...

Videopanorama Frame Rate Requirements Derived from Visual Discrimination of Deceleration During Simulated Aircraft Landing

Science.gov (United States)

Furnstenau, Norbert; Ellis, Stephen R.

2015-01-01

In order to determine the required visual frame rate (FR) for minimizing prediction errors with out-the-window video displays at remote/virtual airport towers, thirteen active air traffic controllers viewed high dynamic fidelity simulations of landing aircraft and decided whether aircraft would stop as if to be able to make a turnoff or whether a runway excursion would be expected. The viewing conditions and simulation dynamics replicated visual rates and environments of transport aircraft landing at small commercial airports. The required frame rate was estimated using Bayes inference on prediction errors by linear FRextrapolation of event probabilities conditional on predictions (stop, no-stop). Furthermore estimates were obtained from exponential model fits to the parametric and non-parametric perceptual discriminabilities d' and A (average area under ROC-curves) as dependent on FR. Decision errors are biased towards preference of overshoot and appear due to illusionary increase in speed at low frames rates. Both Bayes and A - extrapolations yield a framerate requirement of 35 game scores the model based d'(FR)-extrapolation exhibits the best agreement and indicates even higher FRmin > 40 Hz for minimizing decision errors. Definitive recommendations require further experiments with FR > 30 Hz.

Mapping Forest Inventory and Analysis forest land use: timberland, reserved forest land, and other forest land

Science.gov (United States)

Mark D. Nelson; John Vissage

2007-01-01

The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program produces area estimates of forest land use within three subcategories: timberland, reserved forest land, and other forest land. Mapping these subcategories of forest land requires the ability to spatially distinguish productive from unproductive land, and reserved from nonreserved land. FIA field data were spatially...

Informing future NRT satellite distribution capabilities: Lessons learned from NASA's Land Atmosphere NRT capability for EOS (LANCE)

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, D.; Murphy, K. J.; Michael, K.

2013-12-01

NASA's Land Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (Earth Observing System) (LANCE) provides data and imagery from Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites in less than 3 hours from satellite observation, to meet the needs of the near real-time (NRT) applications community. This article describes the architecture of the LANCE and outlines the modifications made to achieve the 3-hour latency requirement with a view to informing future NRT satellite distribution capabilities. It also describes how latency is determined. LANCE is a distributed system that builds on the existing EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS) capabilities. To achieve the NRT latency requirement, many components of the EOS satellite operations, ground and science processing systems have been made more efficient without compromising the quality of science data processing. The EOS Data and Operations System (EDOS) processes the NRT stream with higher priority than the science data stream in order to minimize latency. In addition to expediting transfer times, the key difference between the NRT Level 0 products and those for standard science processing is the data used to determine the precise location and tilt of the satellite. Standard products use definitive geo-location (attitude and ephemeris) data provided daily, whereas NRT products use predicted geo-location provided by the instrument Global Positioning System (GPS) or approximation of navigational data (depending on platform). Level 0 data are processed in to higher-level products at designated Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPS). The processes used by LANCE have been streamlined and adapted to work with datasets as soon as they are downlinked from satellites or transmitted from ground stations. Level 2 products that require ancillary data have modified production rules to relax the requirements for ancillary data so reducing processing times. Looking to the future, experience gained from LANCE can provide valuable lessons on

Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; Eupen, van Michiel; Bloh, von Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

2016-01-01

Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a

Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America.

Science.gov (United States)

Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-Alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; van Eupen, Michiel; von Bloh, Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

2016-11-01

Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Generic skills requirements (KSA model) towards future mechanical ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... Statistics and Discriminant Analysis (DA) as required to achieve the objective of the study. This study will guide all future engineers, especially in the field of Mechanical Engineering in Malaysia to penetrate the job market according to the current market needs. Keywords: generic skills; KSA model; mechanical engineers; ...

Future planetary X-ray and gamma-ray remote sensing system and in situ requirements for room temperature solid state detectors

CERN Document Server

Trombka, J I; Starr, R; Clark, P E; Floyd, S R

1999-01-01

X-Ray and gamma-ray remote sensing observations find important applications in the study of the development of the planets. Orbital measurements can be carried out on solar-system bodies whose atmospheres and trapped radiation environments do not interfere significantly with the emissions. Elemental compositions can be inferred from observations of these line emissions. Future planetary missions also will involve landing both stationery and roving probes on planetary surfaces. Both X-ray and gamma-ray spectrometers will be used for performing elemental analysis of surface samples. These future planetary missions will impose a number of constraints: the flight instruments must be significantly reduced in weight from those previously flown; for many missions, gravity assist will be required, greatly increasing mission duration, resulting in the passage of several years before the first scientific measurement of a solar system body. The detector systems must operate reliably after years of cosmic-ray irradiation...

Futures Analysis of Urban Land Use and Wetland Change in Saskatoon, Canada: An Application in Strategic Environmental Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anton Sizo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a scenario-based approach to strategic environmental assessment (SEA for wetland trend analysis and land use and land cover (LUC modeling in an urban environment. The application is focused on the Saskatoon urban environment, a rapidly growing urban municipality in Canada’s prairie pothole region. Alternative future LUC was simulated using remote sensing data and city spatial planning documentation using a Markov Chain technique. Two alternatives were developed and compared for LUC change and threats to urban wetland sustainability: a zero alternative that simulated trends in urban development and wetland conservation under a business as usual scenario, in the absence of prescribed planning and zoning actions; and an alternative focused on implementation of current urban development plans, which simulated future LUC to account for prescribed wetland conservation strategies. Results show no improvement in future wetland conditions under the city’s planned growth and wetland conservation scenario versus the business as usual scenario. Results also indicate that a blanket wetland conservation strategy for the city may not be sufficient to overcome the historic trend of urban wetland loss; and that spatially distributed conservation rates, based on individual wetland water catchment LUC peculiarities, may be more effective in terms of wetland conservation. The paper also demonstrates the challenges to applied SEA in a rapidly changing urban planning context, where data are often sparse and inconsistent across the urban region, and provides potential solutions through LUC classification and prediction tools to help overcome data limitations to support land use planning decisions for wetland conservation.

Global achievements in sustainable land management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Motavalli

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Identification and development of sustainable land management is urgently required because of widespread resource degradation from poor land use practices. In addition, the world will need to increase food production to meet the nutritional needs of a growing global population without major environmental degradation. Ongoing climate change and its impacts on the environment is an additional factor to consider in identifying and developing sustainable land use practices. The objectives of this paper are to: (1 provide a background to the need for sustainable land management, (2 identify some of its major components, and (3 discuss some examples of sustainable land management systems that are being practiced around the world. Some common components of this type of management are: (1 understanding the ecology of land management, (2 maintenance or enhancement of land productivity, (3 maintenance of soil quality, (4 increased diversity for higher stability and resilience, (5 provision of economic and ecosystem service benefits for communities, and (6 social acceptability. Several examples of sustainable land management systems are discussed to illustrate the wide range of systems that have been developed around the world including agroforestry, conservation agriculture, and precision agricultural systems. Improved technology, allowing for geater environmental measurement and for improved access and sharing of information, provides opportunities to identify and develop more sustainable land management practices and systems for the future.

Land use change modeling through scenario-based cellular automata Markov: improving spatial forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Jahanishakib, Fatemeh; Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Poodat, Fatemeh

2018-05-08

Efficient land use management requires awareness of past changes, present actions, and plans for future developments. Part of these requirements is achieved using scenarios that describe a future situation and the course of changes. This research aims to link scenario results with spatially explicit and quantitative forecasting of land use development. To develop land use scenarios, SMIC PROB-EXPERT and MORPHOL methods were used. It revealed eight scenarios as the most probable. To apply the scenarios, we considered population growth rate and used a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) model to implement the quantified changes described by each scenario. For each scenario, a set of landscape metrics was used to assess the ecological integrity of land use classes in terms of fragmentation and structural connectivity. The approach enabled us to develop spatial scenarios of land use change and detect their differences for choosing the most integrated landscape pattern in terms of landscape metrics. Finally, the comparison between paired forecasted scenarios based on landscape metrics indicates that scenarios 1-1, 2-2, 3-2, and 4-1 have a more suitable integrity. The proposed methodology for developing spatial scenarios helps executive managers to create scenarios with many repetitions and customize spatial patterns in real world applications and policies.

Needs and Requirements for Future Research Reactors (ORNL Perspectives)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ilas, Germina; Bryan, Chris; Gehin, Jess C.

2016-01-01

The High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a vital national and international resource for neutron science research, production of radioisotopes, and materials irradiation. While HFIR is expected to continue operation for the foreseeable future, interest is growing in understanding future research reactors features, needs, and requirements. To clarify, discuss, and compile these needs from the perspective of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) research and development (R&D) missions, a workshop, titled ''Needs and Requirements for Future Research Reactors'', was held at ORNL on May 12, 2015. The workshop engaged ORNL staff that is directly involved in research using HFIR to collect valuable input on the reactor's current and future missions. The workshop provided an interactive forum for a fruitful exchange of opinions, and included a mix of short presentations and open discussions. ORNL staff members made 15 technical presentations based on their experience and areas of expertise, and discussed those capabilities of the HFIR and future research reactors that are essential for their current and future R&D needs. The workshop was attended by approximately 60 participants from three ORNL directorates. The agenda is included in Appendix A. This document summarizes the feedback provided by workshop contributors and participants. It also includes information and insights addressing key points that originated from the dialogue started at the workshop. A general overview is provided on the design features and capabilities of high performance research reactors currently in use or under construction worldwide. Recent and ongoing design efforts in the US and internationally are briefly summarized, followed by conclusions and recommendations.

Report on audit of the US Department of Energy's identification and disposal of nonessential land

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

This document presents the results of an audit of four US DOE facilities to determine whether any land holdings are excess to current and anticipated future needs. Facilities audited were the Hanford Site, the Oak Ridge Reservation, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, and the Brookhaven Laboratory. Audit findings were that 309,000 acres at the Hanford, Oak Ridge, and Idaho sites were not essential to carrying out current and foreseeable mission requirements. It is recommended that the DOE dispose of the nonessential land holdings, reevaluate requirements for remaining land holdings and dispose of any additional nonessential land, and reevaluate the policy of defining ecosystem management as a valid basis for retaining Department real property. 2 tabs

Impacts of Changing Climatic Drivers and Land use features on Future Stormwater Runoff in the Northwest Florida Basin: A Large-Scale Hydrologic Modeling Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2017-12-01

Potential changes in climatic drivers and land cover features can significantly influence the stormwater budget in the Northwest Florida Basin. We investigated the hydro-climatic and land use sensitivities of stormwater runoff by developing a large-scale process-based rainfall-runoff model for the large basin by using the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Climatic and hydrologic variables, as well as land use/cover features were incorporated into the model to account for the key processes of coastal hydrology and its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea levels. We calibrated and validated the model by historical daily streamflow observations during 2009-2012 at four major rivers in the basin. Downscaled climatic drivers (precipitation, temperature, solar radiation) projected by twenty GCMs-RCMs under CMIP5, along with the projected future land use/cover features were also incorporated into the model. The basin storm runoff was then simulated for the historical (2000s = 1976-2005) and two future periods (2050s = 2030-2059, and 2080s = 2070-2099). Comparative evaluation of the historical and future scenarios leads to important guidelines for stormwater management in Northwest Florida and similar regions under a changing climate and environment.

Analyses of Rock Size-Frequency Distributions and Morphometry of Modified Hawaiian Lava Flows: Implications for Future Martian Landing Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Craddock, Robert A.; Golombek, Matthew; Howard, Alan D.

2000-01-01

Both the size-frequency distribution and morphometry of rock populations emplaced by a variety of geologic processes in Hawaii indicate that such information may be useful in planning future landing sites on Mars and interpreting the surface geology.

25 CFR 166.309 - Who determines livestock class and livestock ownership requirements on permitted Indian land?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Who determines livestock class and livestock ownership... livestock class and livestock ownership requirements on permitted Indian land? (a) Tribes determine the class of livestock and livestock ownership requirements for livestock that may be grazed on range units...

Land use and demographic grids in Cosyma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robinson, C.A.; Hasemann, I.

1991-01-01

The spatial distribution of the population, agricultural production, economic activity, and the position of land and sea, are important elements of accident consequence codes. These data are necessary in evaluating the health effects within the population arising from the external dose, inhalation and ingestion pathways. These distributions are also essential in calculating the economic impact of implementing countermeasures, such as relocation and food bans. This paper includes a discussion of the agricultural production and population distribution information available for EC countries, their resolution, availability and sources. The gridded data included in the COSYMA system are described. Particular aspects, such as the difficulties involved with using economic land use information, are also explained. Future developments, and their effect on the requirements for land use and demographic grids, are outlined

Climate change, land use and land surveyors

OpenAIRE

van der Molen, P.; Mitchell, D.

2016-01-01

Research reveals that the land sector is a major emitter of greenhouse gases. But the land sector has also potential to reduce emissions. Different from other emission sectors like energy and transport, the land sector (in particular the rural area including forests) has the potential to also remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere through sequestration and storage. This requires land use, land use change and forestry to be managed with respect to climate change goals. Carbon storage has ...

Land use implications of future energy system trajectories—The case of the UK 2050 Carbon Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konadu, D. Dennis; Mourão, Zenaida Sobral; Allwood, Julian M.; Richards, Keith S.; Kopec, Grant; McMahon, Richard; Fenner, Richard

2015-01-01

The UK's 2008 Climate Change Act sets a legally binding target for reducing territorial greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, relative to 1990 levels. Four pathways to achieve this target have been developed by the Department of Energy and Climate Change, with all pathways requiring increased us of bioenergy. A significant amount of this could be indigenously sourced from crops, but will increased domestic production of energy crops conflict with other agricultural priorities? To address this question, a coupled analysis of the UK energy system and land use has been developed. The two systems are connected by the production of bioenergy, and are projected forwards in time under the energy pathways, accounting for various constraints on land use for agriculture and ecosystem services. The results show different combinations of crop yield and compositions for the pathways lead to the appropriation of between 7% and 61% of UK's agricultural land for bioenergy production. This could result in competition for land for food production and other land uses, as well as indirect land use change in other countries due to an increase in bioenergy imports. Consequently, the potential role of bioenergy in achieving UK emissions reduction targets may face significant deployment challenges. - Highlights: • The Carbon Plan could result in significant land use change for bioenergy by 2050. • Higher Nuclear; less efficiency pathway has the highest land use change impact. • Higher Renewables; more energy efficiency pathway has the lowest land use change impact. • Transport decarbonisation via biofuels has the highest land use change impacts. • At current deployment rate only Higher Renewables pathway projections is achievable.

Knowledge and institutional requirements to promote land degradation neutrality in drylands - An analysis of the outcomes of the 3rd UNCCD scientific conference

Science.gov (United States)

Akhtar-Schuster, Mariam; Safriel, Uriel; Abraham, Elena; de Vente, Joris; Essahli, Wafa; Escadafal, Richard; Stringer, Lindsay

2015-04-01

Achieving land degradation neutrality (LDN) through sustainable land management (SLM) targets the maintenance or restoration of the productivity of land, and therefore has to include decision-makers, knowledge generators and knowledge holders at the different relevant geographic scales. In order to enhance the implementation of the Convention, the Conference of the Parties (COP) of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification therefore decided that each future session of its Committee on Science and Technology (CST) would be organized in a predominantly scientific and technical conference-style format. This contribution will outline the major outcomes of UNCCD's 3rd scientific conference that will be held in Cancún, Mexico, from 9 to 12 March 2015, on addressing desertification, land degradation and drought issues (DLDD) for poverty reduction and sustainable development. The conference follows an exceptional new round table conference format that will allow the various stakeholders to discuss scientific as well as the contribution of traditional knowledge and practices in combating land degradation. This format should provide two-way communication and enable deeper insight into the availability and contribution of all forms of knowledge for achieving LDN through the assessment of: • the vulnerability of lands to DLDD and climate change and the adaptive capacities of socio-ecosystems; • best examples of adapted, knowledge-based practices and technologies; • monitoring and assessment methods to evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation practices and technologies. The outcomes of UNCCD's 3rd scientific conference will serve as a basis for discussing: • contributions of science to diagnose the status of land; • research gaps that need to be addressed to achieve LDN for poverty reduction; • additional institutional requirements to optimally bridge knowledge generation, knowledge maintenance and knowledge implementation at the science

Requirements for advanced decision support tools in future distribution network planning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grond, M.O.W.; Morren, J.; Slootweg, J.G.

2013-01-01

This paper describes the need and requirements for advanced decision support tools in future network planning from a distribution network operator perspective. The existing tools will no longer be satisfactory for future application due to present developments in the electricity sector that increase

Size-Frequency Distributions of Rocks on Mars and Earth Analog Sites: Implications for Future Landed Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Golombeck, M.; Rapp, D.

1996-01-01

The size-frequency distribution of rocks and the Vicking landing sites and a variety of rocky locations on the Earth that formed from a number of geologic processes all have the general shape of simple exponential curves, which have been combined with remote sensing data and models on rock abundance to predict the frequency of boulders potentially hazardous to future Mars landers and rovers.

Harmonization of global land-use scenarios for the period 850-2100

Science.gov (United States)

Hurtt, G. C.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Frolking, S. E.; Fisk, J.; Bodirsky, B.; Calvin, K. V.; Fujimori, S.; Goldewijk, K.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heinimann, A.; Humpenöder, F.; Kaplan, J. O.; Krisztin, T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Lawrence, P.; Mertz, O.; Popp, A.; Riahi, K.; Stehfest, E.; van Vuuren, D.; de Waal, L.; Zhang, X.

2016-12-01

Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community is developing the next generation of advanced Earth System Models (ESM) able to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, a new set of historical data based on HYDE, and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015-2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, are being developed as input for these models. Here we present results from the Land-use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, with the goal to smoothly connect updated historical reconstructions of land-use with new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land-use patterns, underlying land-use transitions, and key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds off the approach from CMIP5, and is provided at higher resolution (0.25x0.25 degree), over longer time domain (850-2100), with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management), using more inputs (including Landsat data), updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation), and is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain >50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5, and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land-use on the

Multiple greenhouse gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Stocker, Benjamin; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri, Xu-Ri; Prentice, Colin

2013-04-01

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHG) CO2, CH4, and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere. The sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since preindustrial times and leads to multiple feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the climate system. The strength of these feedbacks is determined by (i) the sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 and (ii) the greenhouse warming potential of the respective gas. Here, we quantify feedbacks from CO2, CH4, N2O, and land surface albedo in a consistent and comprehensive framework based on a large set of simulations conducted with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The modeled sensitivities of CH4 and N2O emissions are tested, demonstrating that independent data for non-land (anthropogenic, oceanic, etc.) GHG emissions, combined with simulated emissions from natural and agricultural land reproduces historical atmospheric budgets within their uncertainties. 21st-century scenarios for climate, land use change and reactive nitrogen inputs (Nr) are applied to investigate future GHG emissions. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O emissions increase from 9.0 by today to 9.8-11.1 (RCP 2.6) and 14.2-17.0 TgN2O-N/yr by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Without anthropogenic Nr inputs, the amplification is reduced by 24-32%. Soil CH4 emissions increase from 221 at present to 228-245 in RCP 2.6 and to 303-343 TgCH4/yr in RCP 8.5, and the land becomes a net source of C by 2100 AD. Feedbacks from land imply an additional warming of 1.3-1.5°C by 2300 in RCP 8.5, 0.4-0.5°C of which are due to N2O and CH4. The combined effect of multiple GHGs and albedo represents an increasingly positive total feedback to anthropogenic climate change with positive individual feedbacks from CH4, N2O, and albedo outweighing the diminishing negative feedback from CO2

Potential climate effect of mineral aerosols over West Africa: Part II—contribution of dust and land cover to future climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, Zhenming; Wang, Guiling; Yu, Miao; Pal, Jeremy S.

2018-04-01

Mineral dust aerosols are an essential component of climate over West Africa, however, little work has been performed to investigate their contributions to potential climate change. A set of regional climate model experiments with and without mineral dust processes and land cover changes is performed to evaluate their climatic effects under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for two global climate models. Results suggest surface warming to be in the range of 4-8 °C by the end of the century (2081-2100) over West Africa with respect to the present day (1981-2000). The presence of mineral dusts dampens the warming by 0.1-1 °C in all seasons. Accounting for changes in land cover enhances the warming over the north of Sahel and dampens it to the south in spring and summer; however, the magnitudes are smaller than those resulting from dusts. Overall dust loadings are projected to increase, with the greatest increase occurring over the Sahara and Sahel in summer. Accounting for land cover changes tends to reduce dust loadings over the southern Sahel. Future precipitation is projected to decrease by 5-40 % in the western Sahara and Sahel and increase by 10-150 % over the eastern Sahel and Guinea Coast in JJA. A dipole pattern of future precipitation changes is attributed to dust effects, with decrease in the north by 5-20 % and increase by 5-20 % in the south. Future changes in land cover result in a noisy non-significant response with a tendency for slight wetting in MAM, JJA, and SON and drying in DJF.

Reframing the land-sparing/land-sharing debate for biodiversity conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kremen, Claire

2015-10-01

Conservation biologists are devoting an increasing amount of energy to debating whether land sparing (high-yielding agriculture on a small land footprint) or land sharing (low-yielding, wildlife-friendly agriculture on a larger land footprint) will promote better outcomes for local and global biodiversity. In turn, concerns are mounting about how to feed the world, given increasing demands for food. In this review, I evaluate the land-sparing/land-sharing framework--does the framework stimulate research and policy that can reconcile agricultural land use with biodiversity conservation, or is a revised framing needed? I review (1) the ecological evidence in favor of sparing versus sharing; (2) the evidence from land-use change studies that assesses whether a relationship exists between agricultural intensification and land sparing; and (3) how that relationship may be affected by socioeconomic and political factors. To address the trade-off between biodiversity conservation and food production, I then ask which forms of agricultural intensification can best feed the world now and in the future. On the basis of my review, I suggest that the dichotomy of the land-sparing/land-sharing framework limits the realm of future possibilities to two, largely undesirable, options for conservation. Both large, protected regions and favorable surrounding matrices are needed to promote biodiversity conservation; they work synergistically and are not mutually exclusive. A "both-and" framing of large protected areas surrounded by a wildlife-friendly matrix suggests different research priorities from the "either-or" framing of sparing versus sharing. Furthermore, wildlife-friendly farming methods such as agroecology may be best adapted to provide food for the world's hungry people. © 2015 New York Academy of Sciences.

Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

Science.gov (United States)

Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

2012-12-01

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

Finding pathways to national-scale land-sector sustainability

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Lei; Bryan, Brett A.

2017-04-01

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets under Agenda 2030 of the United Nations map a coherent global sustainability ambition at a level of detail general enough to garner consensus amongst nations. However, achieving the global agenda will depend heavily on successful national-scale implementation, which requires the development of effective science-driven targets tailored to specific national contexts and supported by strong national governance. Here we assess the feasibility of achieving multiple SDG targets at the national scale for the Australian land-sector. We scaled targets to three levels of ambition and two timeframes, then quantitatively explored the option space for target achievement under 648 plausible future environmental, socio-economic, technological and policy pathways using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) integrated land systems model. We show that target achievement is very sensitive to global efforts to abate emissions, domestic land-use policy, productivity growth rate, and land-use change adoption behaviour and capacity constraints. Weaker target-setting ambition resulted in higher achievement but poorer sustainability outcomes. Accelerating land-use dynamics after 2030 changed the targets achieved by 2050, warranting a longer-term view and greater flexibility in sustainability implementation. Simultaneous achievement of multiple targets is rare owing to the complexity of sustainability target implementation and the pervasive trade-offs in resource-constrained land systems. Given that hard choices are needed, the land-sector must first address the essential food/fibre production, biodiversity and land degradation components of sustainability via specific policy pathways. It may also contribute to emissions abatement, water and energy targets by capitalizing on co-benefits. However, achieving targets relevant to the land-sector will also require substantial contributions from other sectors such as clean energy, food systems

The future of olive plantation systems on sloping and mountainous land; scenarios for production and natural resource conservation, First Annual Report. EU project Olivero:

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fleskens, L.; Stroosnijder, L.; Graaff, de J.

2004-01-01

The project will devote itself to the future of olive plantation systems on sloping and mountainous land in southern Europe. These systems have been affected by emigration of local populations and fierce competition from low land plantations and from non-EU countries, and are currently neither

Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

Future Climate Impact on the Desertification in the Dry Land Asia Using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lijuan Miao

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Dry Land Asia is the largest arid and semi-arid region in the northern hemisphere that suffers from land desertification. Over the period 1982–2011, there were both overall improvement and regional degeneration in the vegetation NDVI. We analyze future climate changes in these area using two ensemble-average methods from CMIP5 data. Bayesian Model Averaging shows a better capability to represent the future climate and less uncertainty represented by the 22-model ensemble than does the Simple Model Average. From 2006 to 2100, the average growing season temperature value will increase by 2.9 °C, from 14.4 °C to 17.3 °C under three climate scenarios (RCP 26, RCP 45 and RCP 85. We then conduct multiple regression analysis between climate changes compiled from the Climate Research Unit database and vegetation greenness from the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset. There is a general acceleration in the desertification trend under the RCP 85 scenario in middle and northern part of Middle Asia, northwestern China except Xinjiang and the Mongolian Plateau (except the middle part. The RCP 85 scenario shows a more severe desertification trend than does RCP 26. Desertification in dry land Asia, particularly in the regions highlighted in this study, calls for further investigation into climate change impacts and adaptations.

European utilities requirements for future reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roch, M.

1996-01-01

The prospect for future nuclear power plants has led the utilities of seven European countries to launch an effort to define the requirements that should be common to all utilities for the next reactors to be built in Europe. These requirements will ultimately be part of a four-volume document and will cover all aspects of a plant: performance, grid connection, codes and standards, materials, quality assurance, cost, and, of course, safety. The seven European countries - France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium - issued revision A of Vols 1 and 2 in Nov. 1994, which deal with all the general requirements, not specific to any design, originally issued in March 1994. Comments were requested from most of the nuclear utilities as well as from reactor vendors worldwide. This gave rise to an enormous number of comments, which were duly considered by the European Union. The relevant ones were incorporated into revision B of Vols. 1 and 2, which was issued in Nov 1995, the objective of this revision B being essentially to gain approval from the safety authorities. A particular aspect of the European approach resides in the fact that these European requirements will have to be discussed and agreed on by at least nine safety authorities, i.e., the authorities of the seven counties that launched revision B, plus the authorities of two newcomers, Finland and Sweden, which have just applied for European Union membership

Multimedia Modeling System Response to Regional Land Management Change

Science.gov (United States)

Cooter, E. J.

2015-12-01

A multi-media system of nitrogen and co-pollutant models describing critical physical and chemical processes that cascade synergistically and competitively through the environment, the economy and society has been developed at the USEPA Office of Research and Development. It is populated with linked or fully coupled models that address nutrient research questions such as, "How might future policy, climate or land cover change in the Mississippi River Basin affect Nitrogen and Phosphorous loadings to the Gulf of Mexico" or, "What are the management implications of regional-scale land management changes for the sustainability of air, land and water quality?" This second question requires explicit consideration of economic (e.g. sector prices) and societal (e.g. land management) factors. Metrics that illustrate biosphere-atmosphere interactions such as atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations, atmospheric N loading to surface water, soil organic N and N percolation to groundwater are calculated. An example application has been completed that is driven by a coupled agricultural and energy sector model scenario. The economic scenario assumes that by 2022 there is: 1) no detectable change in weather patterns relative to 2002; 2) a concentration of stover processing facilities in the Upper Midwest; 3) increasing offshore Pacific and Atlantic marine transportation; and 4) increasing corn, soybean and wheat production that meets future demand for food, feed and energy feedstocks. This production goal is reached without adding or removing agricultural land area whose extent is defined by the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 2002v2011 classes 81 and 82. This goal does require, however, crop shifts and agricultural management changes. The multi-media system response over our U.S. 12km rectangular grid resolution analysis suggests that there are regions of potential environmental and health costs, as well as large areas that could experience unanticipated environmental and health

78 FR 18562 - Economic and Environmental Principles and Requirements for Water and Related Land Resources...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-03-27

... COUNCIL ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY Economic and Environmental Principles and Requirements for Water... ``Economic and Environmental Principles and Guidelines for Water and Related Land Resources Implementation... Secretary of the Army to revise the ``Economic and Environmental Principles and Guidelines for Water and...

Regulating services as measures of ecological resilience on DoD lands

Science.gov (United States)

Angermeier, Paul; Villamagna, Amy M.

2015-01-01

Knowledge of the capacity and flow of ecosystem services can help DoD land managers make decisions that enhance cost-effectiveness, minimize environmental damage, and maximize resources available for military missions. We demonstrated a methodology to quantify and map selected regulating services (RS), which helps land managers envision tradeoffs. Our objectives were to 1) estimate current capacity of and demand for selected RS within DoD lands, 2) examine the effects of future DoD land management and climate changes on the capacity and flow of these RS, and 3) project how land-use and climate changes in nearby lands affect future demand for RS. Our approach incorporates widely accepted models and equations, remote sensing, GIS analysis, and stakeholder involvement. Required data include land cover/use, soil type, precipitation, and air temperature. We integrated data into the a) Surface Curve Number Method and b) Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation to estimate capacity of sediment, nitrogen (N) and surface-water regulation. Capacities and flows of RS vary greatly across landscapes and are likely to vary as climate changes or development occurs. Analyses of RS capacity and flow can help managers and planners prioritize actions in the context of best management practices and compatible use buffers. Staff surveys indicated that our approach was informative and easy to use. Implementation may be most limited by on-installation personnel time.

Actual problems of the antimonopoly requirements` observance in the bidding for the sale of land in the Russian Federation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexey Pavlovich ANISIMOV

2013-06-01

Full Text Available A comprehensive view of the topic of Antimonopoly regulation in the sphere of land auctions for the Russian legal science and legal science other Eastern European countries is highly relevant. The importance of such research is that foreign companies having business in Russia are not always aware of specificity in land tendering legal regulation and antimonopoly requirements in this sphere. Moreover, the practice of violation of antimonopoly legislation in the sphere of land tendering and probable means of legislation improvement may hereby present more interest for them. The authors cite and analyze various typical violations in the sphere of land tendering, including publication of land auctions notices in an improper printing agency; lack of applications registration and putting forward extra requirements towards the participants; display for land parcels auctions for which no technical specifications of networking have been determined and no payment for such networking has been established; attempts of local administration to provide land parcels without prior approval of the objects’ places of location and without auctions (though such a procedure is of an extremely local character and is only performed in cases expressly specified by the Federal Law; collection of extra and illegal fees from physical and legal entities for participation in auctions; tendering in cases when they are not to be carried out under the Law (gardening, haymaking; underpricing of a land parcel, etc. Eventually a conclusion is drawn on the effectiveness of auctions which shall be secured by establishing a legal procedure which details and definitely determines tendering regulations, requirements towards the participants and order of agreement’s conclusion. Control on the part of antimonopoly bodies, undoubtedly, allows forming barriers for dishonest participants of the auctions. The authors assume that it is rather difficult to achieve absence of mal-usage by

Land-use change and global climate policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gitz, V.

2004-03-01

This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO 2 rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO 2 rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO 2 . Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

Modelling soil erosion at European scale: the importance of management practices and the future climate and land use scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Poesen, Jean; Lugato, Emanuele; Montanarella, Luca; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-04-01

The implementation of RUSLE2015 for modelling soil loss by water erosion at European scale has introduced important aspects related to management practices. The policy measurements such as reduced tillage, crop residues, cover crops, grass margins, stone walls and contouring have been incorporated in the RUSLE2015 modelling platform. The recent policy interventions introduced in Good Agricultural Environmental Conditions of Common Agricultural Policy have reduced the rate of soil loss in the EU by an average of 9.5% overall, and by 20% for arable lands (NATURE, 526, 195). However, further economic and political action should rebrand the value of soil as part of ecosystem services, increase the income of rural land owners, involve young farmers and organize regional services for licensing land use changes (Land Degradation and Development, 27 (6): 1547-1551). RUSLE2015 is combining the future policy scenarios and land use changes introduced by predictions of LUISA Territorial Modelling Platform. Latest developments in RUSLE2015 allow also incorporating the climate change scenarios and the forthcoming intensification of rainfall in North and Central Europe contrary to mixed trends in Mediterranean basin. The rainfall erosivity predictions estimate a mean increase by 18% in European Union by 2050. Recently, a module of CENTURY model was coupled with the RUSLE2015 for estimating the effect of erosion in current carbon balance in European agricultural lands (Global Change Biology, 22(5), 1976-1984; 2016). Finally, the monthly erosivity datasets (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315) introduce a dynamic component in RUSLE2015 and it is a step towards spatio-temporal soil erosion mapping at continental scale. The monthly mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should apply in different seasons of the year. In the future, the soil erosion-modelling platform will

Land management and development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enemark, Stig

2006-01-01

Land management is the process by which the resources of land are put into good effect. Land management encompasses all activities associated with the management of land that are required to achieve sustainable development. The concept of land includes properties and natural resources and thereby...... land related data. It is argued that development of such a model is important or even necessary for facilitating a holistic approach to the management of land as the key asset of any nation or jurisdiction.......Land management is the process by which the resources of land are put into good effect. Land management encompasses all activities associated with the management of land that are required to achieve sustainable development. The concept of land includes properties and natural resources and thereby...... encompasses the total natural and built environment. Land Administration Systems (LAS) are institutional frameworks complicated by the tasks they must perform, by national cultural, political and judicial settings, and by technology. This paper facilitates an overall understanding of the land management...

Requirements for user interaction support in future CACE environments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ravn, Ole; Szymkat, M.

1994-01-01

Based on a review of user interaction modes and the specific needs of the CACE domain the paper describes requirements for user interaction in future CACE environments. Taking another look at the design process in CACE key areas in need of more user interaction support are pointed out. Three...

Food, land and greenhouse gases The effect of changes in UK food consumption on land requirements and greenhouse gas emissions. Report for the Committee on Climate Change.

OpenAIRE

Audsley, Eric; Angus, Andrew; Chatterton, Julia C.; Graves, Anil R.; Morris, Joe; Murphy-Bokern, Donal; Pearn, Kerry R.; Sandars, Daniel L.; Williams, Adrian G.

2010-01-01

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY •1. Key findingsThis study examines the land use and greenhouse gas implications of UK food consumption change away from carbon intensive products. It shows that the UK agricultural land base can support increased consumption of plant-based products arising from the reduced consumption of livestock products. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption reduces the area of arable and grassland required to supply UK food, both in the UK and overseas. It a...

Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lambin, Eric; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise; Mertz, Ole

2014-01-01

by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) ‘downward spiral’ characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) ‘integrated economy’ with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural–urban exchanges; (3) ‘open doors’ characterized by large......-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) ‘climate change mitigation’ with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly...

Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roxana Juliá

2013-12-01

Full Text Available This paper uses the World Trade Model with Climate Sensitive Land (WTMCL to evaluate possible future land-use changes associated with adaptations to climate change in a globalized world. In this approach, changes in regional agricultural production, which are based on comparative advantage, define patterns of land use change in agriculture in all regions of the world. We evaluate four scenarios that combine assumptions about future increases in food demand and future changes in land endowments of different productivities associated with climatic conditions: each scenario generates distinct patterns of regional specialization in the production of agricultural commodities and associated land-use change. The analysis also projects future food availability under the simulated conditions and the direction of likely changes in prices of the major agricultural commodity groups.

Effect of land-use/land-cover change on the future of rainfed agriculture in the Jenin Governorate, Palestine

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thawaba, Salem; Abu-Madi, Maher; Özerol, Gül

2017-01-01

Land cover has been changed by humans throughout history. At the global level, population growth and socio-economic development have a significant impact on land resources. Recently, scholars added climate change as one of the major factors affecting land-cover transformation. In the West Bank of

SEEMLA: 'Filling the gap' - The Future of bioenergy in the EU and the role of biomass from marginal lands

Science.gov (United States)

Baumgarten, Wibke; Kerckow, Birger

2017-04-01

The main objective of the H2020 funded EU project SEEMLA is the establishment of suitable innovative land-use strategies for a sustainable production of plant-based energy on marginal lands while improving general ecosystem services. In the context of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG, Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz) and the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) a concept should be developed with SEEMLA for a sustainable use of domestic biomass in order to be able to 'fill the gap' of the future demand in renewable resources as an energy source till 2050. The project partner countries are Italy, the Ukraine and Greece besides Germany.

Lunar lander stage requirements based on the Civil Needs Data Base

Science.gov (United States)

Mulqueen, John A.

1992-01-01

This paper examines the lunar lander stages that will be necessary for the future exploration and development of the Moon. Lunar lander stage sizing is discussed based on the projected lunar payloads listed in the Civil Needs Data Base. Factors that will influence the lander stage design are identified and discussed. Some of these factors are (1) lunar orbiting and lunar surface lander bases; (2) implications of direct landing trajectories and landing from a parking orbit; (3) implications of landing site and parking orbit; (4) implications of landing site and parking orbit selection; (5) the use of expendable and reusable lander stages; and (6) the descent/ascent trajectories. Data relating the lunar lander stage design requirements to each of the above factors and others are presented in parametric form. These data will provide useful design data that will be applicable to future mission model modifications and design studies.

Modeling nitrate from land surface to wells' perforations under agricultural land: success, failure, and future scenarios in a Mediterranean case study

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Yehuda; Shapira, Roi H.; Chefetz, Benny; Kurtzman, Daniel

2017-07-01

Contamination of groundwater resources by nitrate leaching under agricultural land is probably the most troublesome agriculture-related water contamination worldwide. Contaminated areas often show large spatial variability of nitrate concentration in wells. In this study, we tried to assess whether this spatial variability can be characterized on the basis of land use and standard agricultural practices. Deep soil sampling (10 m) was used to calibrate vertical flow and nitrogen-transport numerical models of the unsaturated zone under different agricultural land uses. Vegetable fields (potato and strawberry) and deciduous orchards (persimmon) in the Sharon area overlying the coastal aquifer of Israel were examined. Average nitrate-nitrogen fluxes below vegetable fields were 210-290 kg ha-1 yr-1 and under deciduous orchards were 110-140 kg ha-1 yr-1. The output water and nitrate-nitrogen fluxes of the unsaturated-zone models were used as input data for a three-dimensional flow and nitrate-transport model in the aquifer under an area of 13.3 km2 of agricultural land. The area was subdivided into four agricultural land uses: vegetables, deciduous orchards, citrus orchards, and non-cultivated. Fluxes of water and nitrate-nitrogen below citrus orchards were taken from a previous study in the area. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to well heads by changing the hydraulic conductivity. The nitrate-transport model, which was fed by the above-mentioned models of the unsaturated zone, succeeded in reconstructing the average nitrate concentration in the wells. However, this transport model failed in calculating the high concentrations in the most contaminated wells and the large spatial variability of nitrate concentrations in the aquifer. To reconstruct the spatial variability and enable predictions, nitrate fluxes from the unsaturated zone were multiplied by local multipliers. This action was rationalized by the fact that the high concentrations in some wells cannot

Public Higher Education Reform Five Years after the Kellogg Commission on the Future of State and Land-Grant Universities

Science.gov (United States)

Byrne, John V.

2006-01-01

The Kellogg Commission on the Future of State and Land grant Universities existed between January 1996 and March 2000 in order to create an awareness among public universities of the need for higher education reform. The Commission, consisting of the presidents and chancellors of 25 major public universities, produced six reports and held numerous…

Using the FORE-SCE model to project land-cover change in the southeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Sohl, Terry; Sayler, Kristi L.

2008-01-01

A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit current and projected land-use and land-cover data. The southeastern United States has experienced massive land-use change since European settlement and continues to experience extremely high rates of forest cutting, significant urban development, and changes in agricultural land use. Forest-cover patterns and structure are projected to change dramatically in the southeastern United States in the next 50 years due to population growth and demand for wood products [Wear, D.N., Greis, J.G. (Eds.), 2002. Southern Forest Resource Assessment. General Technical Report SRS-53. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Asheville, NC, 635 pp]. Along with our climate partners, we are examining the potential effects of southeastern U.S. land-cover change on regional climate. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973-2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States, providing ecoregion-by-ecoregion estimates of the rates of change, descriptive transition matrices, and changes in landscape metrics. The FORecasting SCEnarios of future land-cover (FORE-SCE) model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land-cover change through 2050 for the southeastern United States. Prescriptions for future proportions of land cover for this application were provided by ecoregion-based extrapolations of historical change. Logistic regression was used to develop relationships between suspected drivers of land-cover change and land cover, resulting in the development of probability-of-occurrence surfaces for each unique land-cover type. Forest stand age was initially established with Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and tracked through model iterations. The spatial allocation procedure placed patches of new land cover on the landscape until the scenario

Simulating Land-Use Change using an Agent-Based Land Transaction Model

Science.gov (United States)

Bakker, M. M.; van Dijk, J.; Alam, S. J.

2013-12-01

In the densely populated cultural landscapes of Europe, the vast majority of all land is owned by private parties, be it farmers (the majority), nature organizations, property developers, or citizens. Therewith, the vast majority of all land-use change arises from land transactions between different owner types: successful farms expand at the expense of less successful farms, and meanwhile property developers, individual citizens, and nature organizations also actively purchase land. These land transactions are driven by specific properties of the land, by governmental policies, and by the (economic) motives of both buyers and sellers. Climate/global change can affect these drivers at various scales: at the local scale changes in hydrology can make certain land less or more desirable; at the global scale the agricultural markets will affect motives of farmers to buy or sell land; while at intermediate (e.g. provincial) scales property developers and nature conservationists may be encouraged or discouraged to purchase land. The cumulative result of all these transactions becomes manifest in changing land-use patterns, and consequent environmental responses. Within the project Climate Adaptation for Rural Areas an agent-based land-use model was developed that explores the future response of individual land users to climate change, within the context of wider global change (i.e. policy and market change). It simulates the exchange of land among farmers and between farmers and nature organizations and property developers, for a specific case study area in the east of the Netherlands. Results show that local impacts of climate change can result in a relative stagnation in the land market in waterlogged areas. Furthermore, the increase in dairying at the expense of arable cultivation - as has been observed in the area in the past - is slowing down as arable produce shows a favourable trend in the agricultural world market. Furthermore, budgets for nature managers are

Groundwater-pumping optimization for land-subsidence control in Beijing plain, China

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Huanhuan; Andrews, Charles B.; Tian, Fang; Cao, Guoliang; Luo, Yong; Liu, Jiurong; Zheng, Chunmiao

2018-01-01

Beijing, in the North China plain, is one of the few megacities that uses groundwater as its main source of water supply. Groundwater accounts for about two-thirds of the city's water supply, and during the past 50 years the storage depletion from the unconsolidated aquifers underlying the city has been >10.4 billion m3. By 2010, groundwater pumping in the city had resulted in a cumulative subsidence of greater than 100 mm in an area of about 3,900 km2, with a maximum cumulative subsidence of >1,200 mm. This subsidence has caused significant social and economic losses in Beijing, including significant damage to underground utilities. This study was undertaken to evaluate various future pumping scenarios to assist in selecting an optimal pumping scenario to minimize overall subsidence, meet the requirements of the Beijing Land Subsidence Prevention Plan (BLSPP 2013-2020), and be consistent with continued sustainable economic development. A numerical groundwater and land-subsidence model was developed for the aquifer system of the Beijing plain to evaluate land subsidence rates under the possible future pumping scenarios. The optimal pumping scenario consistent with the evaluation constraints is a reduction in groundwater pumping from three major pumping centers by 100, 50 and 20%, respectively, while maintaining an annual pumping rate of 1.9 billion m3. This scenario's land-subsidence rates satisfy the BLSPP 2013-2020 and the pumping scenario is consistent with continued economic development. It is recommended that this pumping scenario be adopted for future land-subsidence management in Beijing.

Groundwater-pumping optimization for land-subsidence control in Beijing plain, China

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Huanhuan; Andrews, Charles B.; Tian, Fang; Cao, Guoliang; Luo, Yong; Liu, Jiurong; Zheng, Chunmiao

2018-06-01

Beijing, in the North China plain, is one of the few megacities that uses groundwater as its main source of water supply. Groundwater accounts for about two-thirds of the city's water supply, and during the past 50 years the storage depletion from the unconsolidated aquifers underlying the city has been >10.4 billion m3. By 2010, groundwater pumping in the city had resulted in a cumulative subsidence of greater than 100 mm in an area of about 3,900 km2, with a maximum cumulative subsidence of >1,200 mm. This subsidence has caused significant social and economic losses in Beijing, including significant damage to underground utilities. This study was undertaken to evaluate various future pumping scenarios to assist in selecting an optimal pumping scenario to minimize overall subsidence, meet the requirements of the Beijing Land Subsidence Prevention Plan (BLSPP 2013-2020), and be consistent with continued sustainable economic development. A numerical groundwater and land-subsidence model was developed for the aquifer system of the Beijing plain to evaluate land subsidence rates under the possible future pumping scenarios. The optimal pumping scenario consistent with the evaluation constraints is a reduction in groundwater pumping from three major pumping centers by 100, 50 and 20%, respectively, while maintaining an annual pumping rate of 1.9 billion m3. This scenario's land-subsidence rates satisfy the BLSPP 2013-2020 and the pumping scenario is consistent with continued economic development. It is recommended that this pumping scenario be adopted for future land-subsidence management in Beijing.

Future Land Use Planning Alternatives for Alaska: One of a Series of Articles on the Native Land Claims.

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Walter B.

As one in a series of eight articles written by different professionals concerned with Alaska Native land claims, this article focuses on land use planning alternatives after December of 1976 when the configuration of Alaska lands will have been largely finalized under the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act of 1972. While this particular booklet…

Summertime land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—Part I: Past changes and future projections

Science.gov (United States)

Kamae, Youichi; Watanabe, Masahiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Shiogama, Hideo

2014-11-01

Land-sea surface air temperature (SAT) contrast, an index of tropospheric thermodynamic structure and dynamical circulation, has shown a significant increase in recent decades over East Asia during the boreal summer. In Part I of this two-part paper, observational data and the results of transient warming experiments conducted using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed to examine changes in land-sea thermal contrast and the associated atmospheric circulation over East Asia from the past to the future. The interannual variability of the land-sea SAT contrast over the Far East for 1950-2012 was found to be tightly coupled with a characteristic tripolar pattern of tropospheric circulation over East Asia, which manifests as anticyclonic anomalies over the Okhotsk Sea and around the Philippines, and a cyclonic anomaly over Japan during a positive phase, and vice versa. In response to CO2 increase, the cold northeasterly winds off the east coast of northern Japan and the East Asian rainband were strengthened with the circulation pattern well projected on the observed interannual variability. These results are commonly found in GCMs regardless of future forcing scenarios, indicating the robustness of the East Asian climate response to global warming. The physical mechanisms responsible for the increase of the land-sea contrast are examined in Part II.

Land and water requirements of biofuel and implications for food supply and the environment in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Hong; Zhou, Yuan; Liu, Junguo

2009-01-01

The increasing thirst for energy to fuel its fast growing economy has made China keen to explore the potential of modern form of bioenergy, biofuel. This study investigates the land and water requirements of biofuel in China with reference to the government biofuel development plans for 2010 and 2020. The concept of land and water footprints of biofuel is applied for the investigation. The result shows that the current level of bioethanol production consumes 3.5-4% of total maize production of the country, reducing market availability of maize for other uses by about 6%. It is projected that depending on the types of feedstock, 5-10% of the total cultivated land in China would need to be devoted to meet the biofuel production target of 12 million metric tons for the year 2020. The associated water requirement would amount to 32-72 km 3 per year, approximately equivalent to the annual discharge of the Yellow River. The net contribution of biofuel to the national energy pool could be limited due to generally low net energy return of conventional feedstocks. The current biofuel development paths could pose significant impacts on China's food supply and trade, as well as the environment. (author)

Integrated Land-Water-Energy assessment using the Foreseer Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Allwood, Julian; Konadu, Dennis; Mourao, Zenaida; Lupton, Rick; Richards, Keith; Fenner, Richard; Skelton, Sandy; McMahon, Richard

2016-04-01

This study presents an integrated energy and resource modelling and visualisation approach, ForeseerTM, which characterises the interdependencies and evaluates the land and water requirement for energy system pathways. The Foreseer Tool maps linked energy, water and land resource futures by outputting a set of Sankey diagrams for energy, water and land, showing the flow from basic resource (e.g. coal, surface water, and forested land) through transformations (e.g. fuel refining and desalination) to final services (e.g. sustenance, hygiene and transportation). By 'mapping' resources in this way, policy-makers can more easily understand the competing uses through the identification of the services it delivers (e.g. food production, landscaping, energy), the potential opportunities for improving the management of the resource and the connections with other resources which are often overlooked in a traditional sector-based management strategy. This paper will present a case study of the UK Carbon Plan, and highlights the need for integrated resource planning and policy development.

Аccounting and methodological aspects of capital expenditure for land improvement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.P. Melnychuk

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The article highlights the process of reflection in accounting the capital costs for land improvement. The main legislation governing this issue is covered. Also the article has agreed the key issues that ensure in accounting for capital expenditures for farmland improving. The survey has benefited such general scientific methods as: induction and deduction, dialectic, historical and systematic methods and specific methods of accounting. Due to the land reform the ownership of the land was changed. Lands which were owned by farms have been privatized and have received a particular owner. Now privatized lands constitute a significant part of farmland. The land managers require quality accounting information about composition and state of the land and improvements that occur to make an effective management. The numerous changes in legislation generate controversies in their interpretation and, consequently, it results in appearance of the discrepancies in the conduct of cost accounting for capital land improvement which will effect on the amount of net profit in future. The article reflects the economic substance of the process and fundamentally describes the implementation method of accounting for capital expenditure for land in accordance with the applicable law.

Planner's energy workbook: a manual for exploring relationships between land use and energy utilization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carroll, T.O.; Nathans, R.; Palmedo, P.F.; Stern, R.

1977-06-01

It has been clear that the magnitude and character of a region's energy requirements are intimately related to the spatial configuration and mix of land use activities. To the degree to which they can shape the future configurations of residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation activities, local governments and their planners must give serious consideration to the energy implications of those configurations in the light of future social goals and requirements. This Planner's Energy Workbook describes a set of procedures that can be used to carry out community and regional energy analyses. The choice of land use activity parameters and their relation to energy use characteristics are associated with the normal planning concepts of land use density, type of residential development, commercial floorspace, industrial sales and employment, and shopping and work trip lengths. At the same time these energy related intensity coefficients are expressed in a form that permits the analysis of short-term conservation strategies such as the retrofit of insulation and the introduction of new technologies such as solar energy. An integrating framework is provided to construct total community or area energy consumption profiles and future needs; to examine compatibility between area requirements and the energy supply-distribution system serving the area; and to evaluate the implications for energy use of the physical configuration of urban, suburban and rural areas. Two cases illustrate the application of this Workbook. The Long Island area is representative of major suburban regions throughout the U.S. which have undergone major growth and development. A community redevelopment design in Tuscon, Arizona is typical of rapid and major land use development within the environs of an existing city.

River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

Science.gov (United States)

Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

2016-03-01

Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

Assessment of bioenergy potential on marginal land in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhuang, Dafang; Jiang, Dong; Liu, Lei; Huang, Yaohuan [Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101 (China)

2011-02-15

Bioenergy developed from energy plants will play a more and more important role in future energy supply. Much attention has been paid to energy plants in recent years. As China has fairly limited cultivated land resources, the bioenergy development may mainly rely on the exploitation of marginal land. This study focused on the assessment of marginal land resources and bio-fuel potential in China using newly acquired data and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. A multi-factor analysis method was adopted to identify marginal lands for bioenergy development in China, with data of several main types of energy plants on the eco-environmental requirements and natural habits employed. A combined planting zonation strategy was proposed, which was targeted for five species of energy plants including Helianthus tuberous L., Pistacia chinensis, Jatropha curcas L., Cassava and Vernicia fordii. The results indicated that total area of marginal land exploitable for development of energy plants on a large scale was about 43.75 million ha. If 10% of this marginal land was fully utilized for growing the energy plants, the production of bio-fuel would be 13.39 million tons. (author)

Projecting land-use and land cover change in a subtropical urban watershed

Science.gov (United States)

John J. Lagrosa IV; Wayne C. Zipperer; Michael G. Andreu

2018-01-01

Urban landscapes are heterogeneous mosaics that develop via significant land-use and land cover (LULC) change. Current LULC models project future landscape patterns, but generally avoid urban landscapes due to heterogeneity. To project LULC change for an urban landscape, we parameterize an established LULC model (Dyna-CLUE) under baseline conditions (continued current...

Challenges and opportunities in mapping land use intensity globally

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kuemmerle, Tobias; Erb, Karlheinz; Meyfroidt, Patrick

2013-01-01

Future increases in land-based production will need to focus more on sustainably intensifying existing production systems. Unfortunately, our understanding of the global patterns of land use intensity is weak, partly because land use intensity is a complex, multidimensional term, and partly becau...... challenges and opportunities for mapping land use intensity for cropland, grazing, and forestry systems, and identify key issues for future research....... we lack appropriate datasets to assess land use intensity across broad geographic extents. Here, we review the state of the art regarding approaches for mapping land use intensity and provide a comprehensive overview of available global-scale datasets on land use intensity. We also outline major...

Open land use map

OpenAIRE

Mildorf, T.; Charvát, K.; Jezek, J.; Templer, Simon; Malewski, Christian

2014-01-01

Open Land Use Map is an initiative that has been started by the Plan4business project and that will be extended as part of the SDI4Apps project in the future. This service aims to create an improved worldwide land use map. The initial map will be prepared using the CORINE Land Cover, Global Cover dataset and Open Street Map. Contributors, mainly volunteers, will able to change the geometry and assign up-to-date land use according to the HILUCS specification. For certain regions more detailed ...

Percent Agricultural Land Cover on Steep Slopes (Future)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Clearing land for agriculture tends to increase soil erosion. The amount of erosion is related to the steepness of the slope, farming methods used and soil type....

Climate change impacts on crop yields, land use and environment in response to crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zimmermann, Andrea; Webber, Heidi; Zhao, Gang; Ewert, Frank; Kros, Hans; Wolf, Joost; Britz, Wolfgang; Vries, de Wim

2017-01-01

Impacts of climate change on European agricultural production, land use and the environment depend on its impact on crop yields. However, many impact studies assume that crop management remains unchanged in future scenarios, while farmers may adapt their sowing dates and cultivar thermal time

Issues Associated with the Conveyance and Transfer of DOE Lands under Public Law 105-119

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ladino, A.G.

1999-01-01

Public Law 105-119 (Law) was enacted in November 1997 as part of the Defense Authorization Act of 1998 (Act). The Law specifically requires the US Department of Energy (DOE) to identify lands that are suitable for conveyance or transfer at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) within 90 days after enactment of the Act. In general, suitable lands include those parcels that are not required to meet the national security missions assigned to DOE at LANL within a ten year period beginning on the date of enactment of the Act. Additional suitability criteria are addressed below and include the need to establish clear title to the land and to restore areas contaminated with hazardous wastes. This proposed change in future land ownership is intended to serve as the final settlement of DOE community assistance obligations with respect to LANL and Los Alamos County and to stimulate economic development

Future CANDU nuclear power plant design requirements document executive summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Duk Su; Chang, Woo Hyun; Lee, Nam Young; S. A. Usmani

1996-03-01

The future CANDU Requirements Document (FCRED) describes a clear and complete statement of utility requirements for the next generation of CANDU nuclear power plants including those in Korea. The requirements are based on proven technology of PHWR experience and are intended to be consistent with those specified in the current international requirement documents. Furthermore, these integrated set of design requirements, incorporate utility input to the extent currently available and assure a simple, robust and more forgiving design that enhances the performance and safety. The FCRED addresses the entire plant, including the nuclear steam supply system and the balance of the plant, up to the interface with the utility grid at the distribution side of the circuit breakers which connect the switchyard to the transmission lines. Requirements for processing of low level radioactive waste at the plant site and spent fuel storage requirements are included in the FCRED. Off-site waste disposal is beyond the scope of the FCRED. 2 tabs., 1 fig. (Author) .new

Focus on land reclamation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-04-01

Various aspects of land reclamation, i.e. returning disturbed land to a state where, at minimum, it is at least capable of supporting the same kinds of land uses as before the disturbance, are discussed. Activities which disturb the land such as surface mining of coal, surface mining and extraction of oil sands, drilling for oil and natural gas, waste disposal sites, including sanitary landfills, clearing timber for forestry, excavating for pipelines and transportation are described, along with land reclamation legislation in Alberta, and indications of future developments in land reclamation research, legislation and regulation. Practical guidelines for individuals are provided on how they might contribute to land reclamation through judicious and informed consumerism, and through practicing good land management, inclusive of reduced use of herbicides, composting of household wastes, and planting of native species or ground cover in place of traditional lawns.

Energy Sprawl Is the Largest Driver of Land Use Change in United States.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne M Trainor

Full Text Available Energy production in the United States for domestic use and export is predicted to rise 27% by 2040. We quantify projected energy sprawl (new land required for energy production in the United States through 2040. Over 200,000 km2 of additional land area will be directly impacted by energy development. When spacing requirements are included, over 800,000 km2 of additional land area will be affected by energy development, an area greater than the size of Texas. This pace of development in the United States is more than double the historic rate of urban and residential development, which has been the greatest driver of conversion in the United States since 1970, and is higher than projections for future land use change from residential development or agriculture. New technology now places 1.3 million km2 that had not previously experienced oil and gas development at risk of development for unconventional oil and gas. Renewable energy production can be sustained indefinitely on the same land base, while extractive energy must continually drill and mine new areas to sustain production. We calculated the number of years required for fossil energy production to expand to cover the same area as renewables, if both were to produce the same amount of energy each year. The land required for coal production would grow to equal or exceed that of wind, solar and geothermal energy within 2-31 years. In contrast, it would take hundreds of years for oil production to have the same energy sprawl as biofuels. Meeting energy demands while conserving nature will require increased energy conservation, in addition to distributed renewable energy and appropriate siting and mitigation.

Potential of onshore wind energy. Study to the determination of the nationwide potential of space and potential of performance of the wind energy utilization at land; Potenzial der Windenergie an Land. Studie zur Ermittlung des bundesweiten Flaechen- und Leistungspotenzials der Windenergienutzung an Land

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luetkehus, Insa; Salecker, Hanno; Adlunger, Kirsten

2013-06-15

Within the study under consideration, the potential of onshore wind energy was determined. The principally available potential of space for the wind turbine technology is 49,400 km{sup 2}. This corresponds to 13.8 % of the land area of the Federal Republic of Germany. This also corresponds to a potential of about 1,190 gigawatts of installed power with a yield of 2,900 TWh per year. The realizable potential for wind energy on land is significantly lower. The future expansion of the onshore wind energy requires an exploration of low-conflict and cost-effective locations.

Analysis, Test and Simulation of Landing System Touchdown Dynamics

OpenAIRE

Witte, L.; Buchwald, R.; Schröder, S.; van Zoest, Tim

2013-01-01

Future exploration missions pose demanding requirements towards the access by vehicles to scientifically interesting sites on planetary surfaces. These stem particularly from the need of more flexibility in site selection, improved payload to vehicle mass ratios and higher mission success probabilities. The Landing Technology group of the DLR Institute of Space Systems is focusing on the development and verification of experimental and analytical methods for the investigation of the touchd...

Modeling nitrate from land surface to wells' perforations under agricultural land: success, failure, and future scenarios in a Mediterranean case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Levy

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Contamination of groundwater resources by nitrate leaching under agricultural land is probably the most troublesome agriculture-related water contamination worldwide. Contaminated areas often show large spatial variability of nitrate concentration in wells. In this study, we tried to assess whether this spatial variability can be characterized on the basis of land use and standard agricultural practices. Deep soil sampling (10 m was used to calibrate vertical flow and nitrogen-transport numerical models of the unsaturated zone under different agricultural land uses. Vegetable fields (potato and strawberry and deciduous orchards (persimmon in the Sharon area overlying the coastal aquifer of Israel were examined. Average nitrate–nitrogen fluxes below vegetable fields were 210–290 kg ha−1 yr−1 and under deciduous orchards were 110–140 kg ha−1 yr−1. The output water and nitrate–nitrogen fluxes of the unsaturated-zone models were used as input data for a three-dimensional flow and nitrate-transport model in the aquifer under an area of 13.3 km2 of agricultural land. The area was subdivided into four agricultural land uses: vegetables, deciduous orchards, citrus orchards, and non-cultivated. Fluxes of water and nitrate–nitrogen below citrus orchards were taken from a previous study in the area. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to well heads by changing the hydraulic conductivity. The nitrate-transport model, which was fed by the above-mentioned models of the unsaturated zone, succeeded in reconstructing the average nitrate concentration in the wells. However, this transport model failed in calculating the high concentrations in the most contaminated wells and the large spatial variability of nitrate concentrations in the aquifer. To reconstruct the spatial variability and enable predictions, nitrate fluxes from the unsaturated zone were multiplied by local multipliers. This action was rationalized by the fact

Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

2014-12-01

Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes

Understanding the land management paradigm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enemark, Stig

2006-01-01

Land management is the process by which the resources of land are put into good effect. Land management encompasses all activities associated with the management of land and natural resources that are required to achieve sustainable development. Land Administration Systems (LAS) are institutional...

The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut; Brovkin, Victor; Calvin, Kate V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Jones, Chris D.; Lawrence, Peter J.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Pongratz, Julia; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Shevliakova, Elena

2016-09-01

Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past-future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-management strategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use.LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be

Monitoring Snow and Land Ice Using Satellite data in the GMES Project CryoLand

Science.gov (United States)

Bippus, Gabriele; Nagler, Thomas

2013-04-01

The main objectives of the project "CryoLand - GMES Service Snow and Land Ice" are to develop, implement and validate services for snow, glaciers and lake and river ice products as a Downstream Service within the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) program of the European Commission. CryoLand exploits Earth Observation data from current optical and microwave sensors and of the upcoming GMES Sentinel satellite family. The project prepares also the basis for the cryospheric component of the GMES Land Monitoring services. The CryoLand project team consists of 10 partner organisations from Austria, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Romania and is funded by the 7th Framework Program of the European Commission. The CryoLand baseline products for snow include fractional snow extent from optical satellite data, the extent of melting snow from SAR data, and coarse resolution snow water equivalent maps from passive microwave data. Experimental products include maps of snow surface wetness and temperature. The products range from large scale coverage at medium resolution to regional products with high resolution, in order to address a wide user community. Medium resolution optical data (e.g. MODIS, in the near future Sentinel-3) and SAR (ENVISAT ASAR, in the near future Sentinel-1) are the main sources of EO data for generating large scale products in near real time. For generation of regional products high resolution satellite data are used. Glacier products are based on high resolution optical (e.g. SPOT-5, in the near future Sentinel-2) and SAR (TerraSAR-X, in the near future Sentinel-1) data and include glacier outlines, mapping of glacier facies, glacier lakes and ice velocity. The glacier products are generated on users demand. Current test areas are located in the Alps, Norway, Greenland and the Himalayan Mountains. The lake and river ice products include ice extent and its temporal changes and snow extent on ice. The algorithms for these

The land management tool: Developing a climate service in Southwest UK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pete Falloon

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs have significant potential to support shorter-term agricultural decisions and longer-term climate adaptation plans, but uptake in Europe has to date been low. Under the European Union funded project, European Provision Of Regional Impacts Assessments on Seasonal and Decadal Timescales (EUPORIAS we have developed the Land Management Tool (LMTool, a prototype seasonal climate service for land managers, working closely in collaboration with two stakeholder organizations, Clinton Devon Estates (CDE and the National Farmers Union (NFU. LMTool was one of several prototype climate services selected for development within EUPORIAS, including those for the UK transport network, food security in Ethiopia, renewable energy production, hydroelectric energy production in Sweden, and river management in two French basins. The LMTool provides SCFs (1–3 months ahead to farmers in the Southwest UK, alongside 14-day site specific weather forecasts during the winter months when the skill of seasonal forecasts is greatest.We describe the processes through which the LMTool was co-designed and developed with the farmers, its technical development and key features; critically examine the lessons learned and their implications for providing future climate services for land managers; and finally assess the feasibility of delivering an operational winter seasonal climate service for UK land managers.A number of key learning points from developing the prototype may benefit future work in climate services for the land management and agriculture sector; many of these points are also valid for climate services in other sectors. Prototype development strongly benefitted from; working with intermediaries to identify representative, engaged land managers; an iterative and flexible process of co-design with the farmer group; and from an interdisciplinary project team. Further work is needed to develop a better understanding of the role of

Land-Use Requirements for Solar Power Plants in the United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ong, S.; Campbell, C.; Denholm, P.; Margolis, R.; Heath, G.

2013-06-01

This report provides data and analysis of the land use associated with utility-scale ground-mounted solar facilities, defined as installations greater than 1 MW. We begin by discussing standard land-use metrics as established in the life-cycle assessment literature and then discuss their applicability to solar power plants. We present total and direct land-use results for various solar technologies and system configurations, on both a capacity and an electricity-generation basis. The total area corresponds to all land enclosed by the site boundary. The direct area comprises land directly occupied by solar arrays, access roads, substations, service buildings, and other infrastructure. As of the third quarter of 2012, the solar projects we analyze represent 72% of installed and under-construction utility-scale PV and CSP capacity in the United States.

A historical land use data set for the Holocene; HYDE 3.2

Science.gov (United States)

Klein Goldewijk, Kees

2016-04-01

Land use plays an important role in the climate system (Feddema et al., 2005). Many ecosystem processes are directly or indirectly climate driven, and together with human driven land use changes, they determine how the land surface will evolve through time. To assess the effects of land cover changes on the climate system, models are required which are capable of simulating interactions between the involved components of the Earth system (land, atmosphere, ocean, and carbon cycle). Since driving forces for global environmental change differ among regions, a geographically (spatially) explicit modeling approach is called for, so that it can be incorporated in global and regional (climate and/or biophysical) change models in order to enhance our understanding of the underlying processes and thus improving future projections. Integrated records of the co-evolving human-environment system over millennia are needed to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the present and for forecasting the future. This requires the major task of assembling and integrating regional and global historical, archaeological, and paleo-environmental records. Humans cannot predict the future. But, if we can adequately understand the past, we can use that understanding to influence our decisions and to create a better, more sustainable and desirable future. Some researchers suggest that mankind has shifted from living in the Holocene (~emergence of agriculture) into the Anthropocene (~humans capable of changing the Earth' atmosphere) since the start of the Industrial Revolution. But in the light of the sheer size and magnitude of some historical land use changes (e.g. collapse of the Roman Empire in the 4th century, the depopulation of Europe due to the Black Plague in the 14th century and the aftermath of the colonization of the Americas in the 16th century), some believe that this point might have occurred earlier in time (Ruddiman, 2003; Kaplan et al., 2010). Many uncertainties still

The CEOS-Land Surface Imaging Constellation Portal for GEOSS: A resource for land surface imaging system information and data access

Science.gov (United States)

Holm, Thomas; Gallo, Kevin P.; Bailey, Bryan

2010-01-01

The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites is an international group that coordinates civil space-borne observations of the Earth, and provides the space component of the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS). The CEOS Virtual Constellations concept was implemented in an effort to engage and coordinate disparate Earth observing programs of CEOS member agencies and ultimately facilitate their contribution in supplying the space-based observations required to satisfy the requirements of the GEOSS. The CEOS initially established Study Teams for four prototype constellations that included precipitation, land surface imaging, ocean surface topography, and atmospheric composition. The basic mission of the Land Surface Imaging (LSI) Constellation [1] is to promote the efficient, effective, and comprehensive collection, distribution, and application of space-acquired image data of the global land surface, especially to meet societal needs of the global population, such as those addressed by the nine Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs) of agriculture, biodiversity, climate, disasters, ecosystems, energy, health, water, and weather. The LSI Constellation Portal is the result of an effort to address important goals within the LSI Constellation mission and provide resources to assist in planning for future space missions that might further contribute to meeting those goals.

Characterizing costs and benefits of uncertain future regulatory requirements on the U.S. natural gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Godec, M.L.; Smith, G.E.; Fitzgibbon, T.

1995-01-01

Environmental regulatory requirements at both the state and federal level are constantly changing, making it difficult for industry and R ampersand D program managers to project future compliance requirements and costs. Even if a company is trying to keep abreast of various proposed regulatory initiatives, the number of possible combinations of initiatives that could occur in the future seems virtually limitless. Uncertainty associated with potential future environmental compliance requirements makes the identification and evaluation of future investment and R ampersand D opportunities exceedingly difficult, and makes the process of systematic strategic planning increasingly complex. This paper describes a methodology for accounting for uncertain future environmental compliance costs in a systematic, comprehensive manner. Through analysis of proposed initiatives for making future environmental requirements more stringent, forecasting the likelihood of occurrence and potential timing of each initiative, and estimating potential future compliance costs associated with each initiative, a thorough process for incorporating regulatory uncertainty into strategic planning and project evaluation is described. This approach can be used for evaluating R ampersand D opportunities to determine where development of new technologies or assessment of risks posed by industry operations may have the greatest impact on future industry costs of compliance. This approach could also be used to account for the uncertainty of future environmental costs in corporate strategic planning or for factoring future compliance costs into project evaluation. This approach could also be enhanced through use in conjunction with other modeling and forecasting systems that could consider a broad range of impacts, including impacts on gas production, industry activity levels, and tax revenues

How Could Agricultural Land Systems Contribute to Raise Food Production Under Global Change?

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

WU Wen-bin; YU Qiang-yi; Verburg H Peter; YOU Liang-zhi; YANG Peng; TANG Hua-jun

2014-01-01

To feed the increasing world population, more food needs to be produced from agricultural land systems. Solutions to produce more food with fewer resources while minimizing adverse environmental and ecological consequences require sustainable agricultural land use practices as supplementary to advanced biotechnology and agronomy. This review paper, from a land system perspective, systematically proposed and analyzed three interactive strategies that could possibly raise future food production under global change. By reviewing the current literatures, we suggest that cropland expansion is less possible amid iferce land competition, and it is likely to do less in increasing food production. Moreover, properly allocating crops in space and time is a practical way to ensure food production. Climate change, dietary shifts, and other socio-economic drivers, which would shape the demand and supply side of food systems, should be taken into consideration during the decision-making on rational land management in respect of sustainable crop choice and allocation. And ifnally, crop-speciifc agricultural intensiifcation would play a bigger role in raising future food production either by increasing the yield per unit area of individual crops or by increasing the number of crops sown on a particular area of land. Yet, only when it is done sustainably is this a much more effective strategy to maximize food production by closing yield and harvest gaps.

Human deforestation outweighs future climate change impacts of sedimentation on coral reefs.

Science.gov (United States)

Maina, Joseph; de Moel, Hans; Zinke, Jens; Madin, Joshua; McClanahan, Tim; Vermaat, Jan E

2013-01-01

Near-shore coral reef systems are experiencing increased sediment supply due to conversion of forests to other land uses. Counteracting increased sediment loads requires an understanding of the relationship between forest cover and sediment supply, and how this relationship might change in the future. Here we study this relationship by simulating river flow and sediment supply in four watersheds that are adjacent to Madagascar's major coral reef ecosystems for a range of future climate change projections and land-use change scenarios. We show that by 2090, all four watersheds are predicted to experience temperature increases and/or precipitation declines that, when combined, result in decreases in river flow and sediment load. However, these climate change-driven declines are outweighed by the impact of deforestation. Consequently, our analyses suggest that regional land-use management is more important than mediating climate change for influencing sedimentation of Malagasy coral reefs.

Land-cover change research at the U.S. Geological Survey-assessing our nation's dynamic land surface

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Tamara S.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed an unprecedented, 27-year assessment of land-use and land-cover change for the conterminous United States. For the period 1973 to 2000, scientists generated estimates of change in major types of land use and land cover, such as development, mining, agriculture, forest, grasslands, and wetlands. To help provide the insight that our Nation will need to make land-use decisions in coming decades, the historical trends data is now being used by the USGS to help model potential future land use/land cover under different scenarios, including climate, environmental, economic, population, public policy, and technological change.

Land Use Requirements of Modern Wind Power Plants in the United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Denholm, P.; Hand, M.; Jackson, M.; Ong, S.

2009-08-01

This report provides data and analysis of the land use associated with modern, large wind power plants (defined as greater than 20 megawatts (MW) and constructed after 2000). The analysis discusses standard land-use metrics as established in the life-cycle assessment literature, and then discusses their applicability to wind power plants. The report identifies two major 'classes' of wind plant land use: 1) direct impact (i.e., disturbed land due to physical infrastructure development), and 2) total area (i.e., land associated with the complete wind plant project). The analysis also provides data for each of these classes, derived from project applications, environmental impact statements, and other sources. It attempts to identify relationships among land use, wind plant configuration, and geography. The analysts evaluated 172 existing or proposed projects, which represents more than 26 GW of capacity. In addition to providing land-use data and summary statistics, they identify several limitations to the existing wind project area data sets, and suggest additional analysis that could aid in evaluating actual land use and impacts associated with deployment of wind energy.

The role of Latin America's land and water resources for global food security: environmental trade-offs of future food production pathways.

Science.gov (United States)

Flachsbarth, Insa; Willaarts, Bárbara; Xie, Hua; Pitois, Gauthier; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Ringler, Claudia; Garrido, Alberto

2015-01-01

One of humanity's major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC's agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)-a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector-to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths.

Land Use and Water Efficiency in Current and Potential Future U.S. Corn and Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol Systems (Poster)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Warner, E.; Zhang, Y.; Chum, H.; Newmark, R.

2012-11-01

The potential for unintended consequences of biofuels--competition for land and water--necessitates that sustainable biofuel expansion considers the complexities of resource requirements within specific context (e.g., technology, feedstock, supply chain, local resource availability).

Mediterranean land systems: Representing diversity and intensity of complex land systems in a dynamic region

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Malek, Ziga; Verburg, P.H.

In the Mediterranean region, land systems have been shaped gradually through centuries. They provide services to a large and growing population in a region that is among the most vulnerable to future global change. The spatial extent and distribution of Mediterranean land systems is, however,

Review on abort trajectory for manned lunar landing mission

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2010-01-01

Abort trajectory is a passage that ensures the astronauts to return safely to the earth when an emergency occurs. Firstly,the essential elements of mission abort are analyzed entirely based on summarizing the existing studies. Then,abort trajectory requirement and rational selection for different flight phases of typical manned lunar mission are discussed specifically. Considering a trade-off between the two primary constrains of an abort,the return time of flight and energy requirement,a general optimizing method for mission abort is proposed. Finally,some suggestions are given for China’s future manned lunar landing mission.

Three solar urban futures: characterization of a future community under three energy-supply scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Milne, M; Adelson, M; Corwin, R

1979-10-01

This study examines a hypothetical city of 100,000 people in the year 2025 based on three initially given energy-supply scenarios: Future 1 specifying approximately 6% of the city's demand being met by solar technologies; Future 2 specifying about 25%; and Future 3 seeking maximum use of solar technologies. These three versions of the hypothetical city are to be identical in terms of population, goods and services produced, and energy demand. Their differences are compared in terms of physical layout, environmental quality, socio-economics, and quality of life. It is concluded that in Future 1 and Future 2, the city's residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can easily meet the on-site energy-collection requirements of the given supply scenarios. In Future 3, the Solar City, the residential sector can be totally energy self-sufficient (collecting all needed energy on-site), and the commercial sector can collect 59.7% of its energy requirement. Passive design of buildings plays a large part in these results. The industrial sector can collect on-site only 18.2% of its energy needs. In what is called Future 3A, all three sectors of the hypothetical city can be 100% energy self-sufficient if the land area available for various types of solar collectors is increased 34.5%; the commercial sector needs 650 additional acres, while the industrial sector needs 2800 acres, provided that moderate temperature energy (250/sup 0/F to 600/sup 0/F) is adequate to meet industrial process needs.

Grid requirements applicable to future NPPs in the new European Electricity Framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beato Castro, D.; Padill, C. M.

2000-01-01

With a view to keeping nuclear energy as an option for future power generation in a competitive market and taking advantage of the current operating experience, a group of European electric utilities have come together to define common requirements for the design and supply of future Light Water Reactor (LWR) plants connected to the electrical system. These requirements, defined with the aim of standardizing and adapting design to the conditions of the new electricity framework, are being included in the European Utility Requirements (EUR) document. Although there are different types of power plants operating appropriately in large electrical systems, the idea is to find the minimum requirements that will allow growth of this type of energy in the European electricity industry without reducing quality, safety and reliability of interconnected electrical systems. It is therefore necessary to take into account the features of the existing power systems and the operating characteristics and design of nuclear power plants so as to harmonize their respective technical peculiarities in the framework of the deregulated electricity sector. The definition of these grid requirements is based primarily on the operating conditions of the Union pour la Coordination de la Production et le Transport de L'Electricite (UCPTE) grid and takes into account the current Grid Code of the main European countries, for the forthcoming Issue C. This paper sets outs the most relevant aspects of the grid requirements, included in Chapter 2.3 of the EUR document Grid Requirements, Issue B, for the connection of future nuclear power plants in the European electricity system, and others that are being considered in the preparation of the new issue of the document that will take into account the deregulated electricity market situation and deal with the following aspects: General characteristics. Operation of a plant under normal grid conditions. Operation of a plant under disturbed grid

Safety related requirements on future nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niehaus, F.

1991-01-01

Nuclear power has the potential to significantly contribute to the future energy supply. However, this requires continuous improvements in nuclear safety. Technological advancements and implementation of safety culture will achieve a safety level for future reactors of the present generation of a probability of core-melt of less than 10 -5 per year, and less than 10 -6 per year for large releases of radioactive materials. There are older reactors which do not comply with present safety thinking. The paper reviews findings of a recent design review of WWER 440/230 plants. Advanced evolutionary designs might be capable of reducing the probability of significant off-site releases to less than 10 -7 per year. For such reactors there are inherent limitations to increase safety further due to the human element, complexity of design and capability of the containment function. Therefore, revolutionary designs are being explored with the aim of eliminating the potential for off-site releases. In this context it seems to be advisable to explore concepts where the ultimate safety barrier is the fuel itself. (orig.) [de

The Copernicus Global Land Service: present and future

Science.gov (United States)

Lacaze, Roselyne; Smets, Bruno; Trigo, Isabel; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Jann, Alexander; Camacho, Fernando; Baret, Frédéric; Kidd, Richard; Defourny, Pierre; Tansey, Kevin; Pacholczyk, Philippe; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Szintai, Balazs

2013-04-01

From 1st January 2013, the Copernicus Global Land Service is operational, providing continuously to European, African and International users a set of biophysical variables describing the vegetation conditions, the energy budget at the continental surface and the water cycle over the whole globe at one kilometer resolution. These generic products can serve numerous applications such as agriculture and food security monitoring, weather forecast, climate change impact studies, water, forest and natural resources management. The Copernicus Global Land Service is built on the achievements of the BioPar component of the FP7 geoland2 project. Essential Climate Variables like the Leaf Area Index (LAI), the Fraction of PAR absorbed by the vegetation (FAPAR), the surface albedo, the Land Surface Temperature, the soil moisture, the burnt areas, the areas of water bodies, and additional vegetation indices, are generated every hour, every day or every 10 days on a reliable and automatic basis from Earth Observation satellite data. Beside this timely production, the available historical archives have been processed, using the same innovative algorithms, to get consistent time series as long as possible. As an example, more than 30 years of LAI and FAPAR relying on NOAA/AVHRR sensors (from 1981 to 2000) and SPOT/VGT sensors (from 1999 to the present) are now available. All products are accessible, free of charge and after registration, at the following address: http://www.geoland2.eu/core-mapping-services/biopar.html. Documentation describing the physical methodologies, the technical properties of products, and the results of validation exercises can also be downloaded. In view of service continuity, research and development are performed on two parallel ways. On one hand, the existing retrieval methodologies will be adapted to new input data sets (e.g. Proba-V and Sentinel-3 at 1km resolution) that will be used in replacement of current sensor (SPOT/VGT) which reached the end

Climate change and future land use in the United States: an economic approach

Science.gov (United States)

David Haim; Ralph J. Alig; Andrew J. Plantinga; Brent Sohngen

2011-01-01

An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and...

Arctic transitions in the Land - Atmosphere System (ATLAS): Background, objectives, results, and future directions

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, A.D.; Sturm, M.; Chapin, F. S.

2003-01-01

This paper briefly reviews the background, objectives, and results of the Arctic Transitions in the Land-Atmosphere System (ATLAS) Project to date and provides thoughts on future directions. The key goal of the ATLAS Project is to improve understanding of controls over spatial and temporal variability of terrestrial processes in the Arctic that have potential consequences for the climate system, i.e., processes that affect the exchange of water and energy with the atmosphere, the exchange of radiatively active gases with the atmosphere, and the delivery of freshwater to the Arctic Ocean. Three important conclusions have emerged from research associated with the ATLAS Project. First, associated with the observation that the Alaskan Arctic has warmed significantly in the last 30 years, permafrost is warming, shrubs are expanding, and there has been a temporary release of carbon dioxide from tundra soils. Second, the winter is a more important period of biological activity than previously appreciated. Biotic processes, including shrub expansion and decomposition, affect snow structure and accumulation and affect the annual carbon budget of tundra ecosystems. Third, observed vegetation changes can have a significant positive feedback to regional warming. These vegetation effects are, however, less strong than those exerted by land-ocean heating contrasts and the topographic constraints on air mass movements. The papers of this special section provide additional insights related to these conclusions and to the overall goal of ATLAS.

Doppler Lidar Sensor for Precision Landing on the Moon and Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Amzajerdian, Farzin; Petway, Larry; Hines, Glenn; Barnes, Bruce; Pierrottet, Diego; Lockhard, George

2012-01-01

Landing mission concepts that are being developed for exploration of planetary bodies are increasingly ambitious in their implementations and objectives. Most of these missions require accurate position and velocity data during their descent phase in order to ensure safe soft landing at the pre-designated sites. To address this need, a Doppler lidar is being developed by NASA under the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance (ALHAT) project. This lidar sensor is a versatile instrument capable of providing precision velocity vectors, vehicle ground relative altitude, and attitude. The capabilities of this advanced technology have been demonstrated through two helicopter flight test campaigns conducted over a vegetation-free terrain in 2008 and 2010. Presently, a prototype version of this sensor is being assembled for integration into a rocket-powered terrestrial free-flyer vehicle. Operating in a closed loop with vehicle's guidance and navigation system, the viability of this advanced sensor for future landing missions will be demonstrated through a series of flight tests in 2012.

Quantifying the relative importance of greenhouse gas emissions from current and future savanna land use change across northern Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Bristow, Mila; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Beringer, Jason; Livesley, Stephen J.; Edwards, Andrew C.; Arndt, Stefan K.

2016-11-01

this land use change. The total emission from this savanna woodland was 148.3 Mg CO2-e ha-1 with the debris burning responsible for 121.9 Mg CO2-e ha-1 or 82 % of the total emission. The remaining emission was attributed to CO2 efflux from soil disturbance during site preparation for agriculture (10 % of the total emission) and decay of debris during the curing period prior to burning (8 %). Over the same period, fluxes at the uncleared savanna woodland site were measured using a second flux tower and over the 22-month observation period, cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was a net carbon sink of -2.1 Mg C ha-1, or -7.7 Mg CO2-e ha-1. Estimated emissions for this savanna type were then extrapolated to a regional-scale to (1) provide estimates of the magnitude of GHG emissions from any future deforestation and (2) compare them with GHG emissions from prescribed savanna burning that occurs across the northern Australian savanna every year. Emissions from current rate of annual savanna deforestation across northern Australia was double that of reported (non-CO2 only) savanna burning. However, if the total GHG emission, CO2 plus non-CO2 emissions, is accounted for, burning emissions are an order of magnitude larger than that arising from savanna deforestation. We examined a scenario of expanded land use that required additional deforestation of savanna woodlands over and above current rates. This analysis suggested that significant expansion of deforestation area across the northern savanna woodlands could add an additional 3 % to Australia's national GHG account for the duration of the land use change. This bottom-up study provides data that can reduce uncertainty associated with land use change for this extensive tropical ecosystem and provide an assessment of the relative magnitude of GHG emissions from savanna burning and deforestation. Such knowledge can contribute to informing land use decision making processes associated with land and water resource

SMOS and SMAP: from Lessons Learned to Future Mission Requirements

Science.gov (United States)

Kerr, Y. H.; Wigneron, J. P.; Cabot, F.; Escorihuela, M. J.; Anterrieu, E.; Rouge, B.; Rodriguez Fernandez, N.; Bindlish, R.; Khazaal, A.; Al-Bitar, A.; Mialon, A.; Lesthievent, G.

2017-12-01

, vegetation water content, but also dielectric constant, are carrying a wealth of information and some interesting perspectives will be presented. More important it is now possible to draw conclusions from the lessons learnt and, with the help of the user's community, define the requirements for future missions. And, finally, from these requirement to propose mission scenarii.

Patterns of land use, extensification, and intensification of Brazilian agriculture.

Science.gov (United States)

Dias, Lívia C P; Pimenta, Fernando M; Santos, Ana B; Costa, Marcos H; Ladle, Richard J

2016-08-01

Sustainable intensification of agriculture is one of the main strategies to provide global food security. However, its implementation raises enormous political, technological, and social challenges. Meeting these challenges will require, among other things, accurate information on the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural land use and yield. Here, we investigate historical patterns of agricultural land use (1940-2012) and productivity (1990-2012) in Brazil using a new high-resolution (approximately 1 km(2) ) spatially explicit reconstruction. Although Brazilian agriculture has been historically known for its extensification over natural vegetation (Amazon and Cerrado), data from recent years indicate that extensification has slowed down and was replaced by a strong trend of intensification. Our results provide the first comprehensive historical overview of agricultural land use and productivity in Brazil, providing clear insights to guide future territorial planning, sustainable agriculture, policy, and decision-making. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Online Time Series Analysis of Land Products over Asia Monsoon Region via Giovanni

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Gerasimov, Irina

2011-01-01

Time series analysis is critical to the study of land cover/land use changes and climate. Time series studies at local-to-regional scales require higher spatial resolution, such as 1km or less, data. MODIS land products of 250m to 1km resolution enable such studies. However, such MODIS land data files are distributed in 10ox10o tiles, due to large data volumes. Conducting a time series study requires downloading all tiles that include the study area for the time period of interest, and mosaicking the tiles spatially. This can be an extremely time-consuming process. In support of the Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS) program, NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center) has processed MODIS land products at 1 km resolution over the Asia monsoon region (0o-60oN, 60o-150oE) with a common data structure and format. The processed data have been integrated into the Giovanni system (Goddard Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure) that enables users to explore, analyze, and download data over an area and time period of interest easily. Currently, the following regional MODIS land products are available in Giovanni: 8-day 1km land surface temperature and active fire, monthly 1km vegetation index, and yearly 0.05o, 500m land cover types. More data will be added in the near future. By combining atmospheric and oceanic data products in the Giovanni system, it is possible to do further analyses of environmental and climate changes associated with the land, ocean, and atmosphere. This presentation demonstrates exploring land products in the Giovanni system with sample case scenarios.

Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan

Science.gov (United States)

Marlier, Miriam E.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kim, Patrick S.; Gaveau, David L. A.; Koplitz, Shannon N.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Margono, Belinda A.; Myers, Samuel S.

2015-05-01

Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010-2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations and

Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marlier, Miriam E; DeFries, Ruth S; Kim, Patrick S; Koplitz, Shannon N; Jacob, Daniel J; Gaveau, David L A; Mickley, Loretta J; Margono, Belinda A; Myers, Samuel S

2015-01-01

Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010–2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations

Consequences for designer and manufacturer of mechanical components due to future requirements in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hans-Joachim, Frank

2001-01-01

In the frame of European harmonization, a lot of changes on requirements for designer and manufacturer of mechanical components have been performed. Differed organizations are involved in preparing future requirements for nuclear application. On one side the French German cooperation on the development of EPR. At the origin of this project was the common decision in 1989 of Framatome and Siemens to cooperate through NPI, to design the Nuclear Island, which meets the future needs of utilities. EDF and a group of the main German Utilities joined this cooperation in 1991 and since then they have been totally involved to the progress of the work. In addition, all the process was backed up to the end by the strong cooperation between the French and the German. Safety Authorities, which have a long lasting cooperation to define common requirements, which have to be applied to future Nuclear Power Plants. Furthermore an organization has been set up to elaborate common codes related to the EPR design, at the level of the French design and construction rules (RCC) or the German KTA safety standards, the so-called EPR technical codes (ETC). On the other side, the European utilities co-operate on a much broader basis for the establishment of European Utilities Requirements (EUR). These requirements are prepared by a group of European utilities that represent the major European electricity generating companies that are determined to keep the nuclear option open. The technical requirements specified in the EUR document define the boundaries in which future plants need to be designed in order to be acceptable for the needs of the utilities and in order to fulfill the basic requirements of competitive power generation costs and licensability in all countries represented in the EUR group. All the new requirements have to be applied by designer and manufacturer. Siemens /SNP act as a designer of a lot of various vessels and tanks, heat exchangers and other items of process

ESA remote-sensing programme - Present activities and future plans

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plevin, J [ESA, Directorate of Planning and Future Programmes, Paris, France; Pryke, I [ESA, Directorate of Applications Programmes, Toulouse, France

1979-02-01

The present activities and future missions of the ESA program of spaceborne remote sensing of earth resources and environment are discussed. Program objectives have been determined to be the satisfaction of European regional needs by agricultural, land use, water resources, coastal and polar surveys, and meeting the requirements of developing nations in the areas of agricultural production, mineral exploration and disaster warning and assessment. The Earthnet system of data processing centers presently is used for the distribution of remote sensing data acquired by NASA satellites. Remote sensing experiments to be flown aboard Spacelab are the Metric Camera, to test high resolution mapping capabilities of a large format camera, and the Microwave Remote-Sensing Experiment, which operates as a two-frequency scatterometer, a synthetic aperture radar and a passive microwave radiometer. Studies carried out on the definition of future remote sensing satellite systems are described, including studies of system concepts for land applications and coastal monitoring satellites.

LAND USE LAND COVER CHANGE IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES - A REVIEW

OpenAIRE

Pranav Sharma, Gaurang Gupta, Paritosh Prabhakar, Sheetal Tiwari, Pankaj Kathait, Yash Pathak; Nitin Mishra; Sanjeev Kumar

2017-01-01

The land use change has generally occurred locally, regionally and worldwide over the last few decades and will carry on in the future as well. The increment in urbanization has a major impact on groundwater and it is major concern over the few years to those who are involved in groundwater studies. The enlargement of the urbanization area results in decrease in infiltration, which affect the groundwater recharge and storage. The land use change has to be evaluated properly using conventional...

The land management paradigm for institutional development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enemark, Stig

2006-01-01

Land management is the process by which the resources of land are put into good effect. Land management encompasses all activities associated with the management of land that are required to achieve sustainable development. The concept of land includes properties and natural resources and thereby...... land related data. It is argued that development of such a model is important or even necessary for facilitating a holistic approach to the management of land as the key asset of any nation or jurisdiction.......Land management is the process by which the resources of land are put into good effect. Land management encompasses all activities associated with the management of land that are required to achieve sustainable development. The concept of land includes properties and natural resources and thereby...... encompasses the total natural and built environment. Land Administration Systems (LAS) are institutional frameworks complicated by the tasks they must perform, by national cultural, political and judicial settings, and by technology. This paper facilitates an overall understanding of the land management...

Assessing and analysing the impact of land take pressures on arable land

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Aksoy

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Land, and in particular soil, is a finite and essentially non-renewable resource. Across the European Union, land take, i.e. the increase of settlement area over time, annually consumes more than 1000 km2 of which half is actually sealed and hence lost under impermeable surfaces. Land take, and in particular soil sealing, has already been identified as one of the major soil threats in the 2006 European Commission Communication Towards a Thematic Strategy on Soil Protection and the Soil Thematic Strategy and has been confirmed as such in the report on the implementation of this strategy. The aim of this study is to relate the potential of land for a particular use in a given region with the actual land use. This allows evaluating whether land (especially the soil dimension is used according to its (theoretical potential. To this aim, the impact of several land cover flows related to urban development on soils with good, average, and poor production potentials were assessed and mapped. Thus, the amount and quality (potential for agricultural production of arable land lost between the years 2000 and 2006 was identified. In addition, areas with high productivity potential around urban areas, indicating areas of potential future land use conflicts for Europe, were identified.

Historical and future land use effects on N2O and NO emissions using an ensemble modeling approach: Costa Rica's Caribbean lowlands as an example

Science.gov (United States)

Reiners, W. A.; Liu, S.; Gerow, K. G.; Keller, M.; Schimel, D. S.

2002-12-01

The humid tropical zone is a major source area for N2O and NO emissions to the atmosphere. Local emission rates vary widely with local conditions, particularly land use practices which swiftly change with expanding settlement and changing market conditions. The combination of wide variation in emission rates and rapidly changing land use make regional estimation and future prediction of biogenic trace gas emission particularly difficult. This study estimates contemporary, historical, and future N2O and NO emissions from 0.5 million ha of northeastern Costa Rica, a well-documented region in the wet tropics undergoing rapid agricultural development. Estimates were derived by linking spatially distributed environmental data with an ecosystem simulation model in an ensemble estimation approach that incorporates the variance and covariance of spatially distributed driving variables. Results include measures of variance for regional emissions. The formation and aging of pastures from forest provided most of the past temporal change in N2O and NO flux in this region; future changes will be controlled by the degree of nitrogen fertilizer application and extent of intensively managed croplands.

More green infrastructure is required to maintain ecosystem services under current trends in land-use change in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Maes, Joachim; Barbosa, Ana; Baranzelli, Claudia; Zulian, Grazia; Batista E Silva, Filipe; Vandecasteele, Ine; Hiederer, Roland; Liquete, Camino; Paracchini, Maria Luisa; Mubareka, Sarah; Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Castillo, Carolina Perpiña; Lavalle, Carlo

Green infrastructure (GI), a network of nature, semi-natural areas and green space, delivers essential ecosystem services which underpin human well-being and quality of life. Maintaining ecosystem services through the development of GI is therefore increasingly recognized by policies as a strategy to cope with potentially changing conditions in the future. This paper assessed how current trends of land-use change have an impact on the aggregated provision of eight ecosystem services at the regional scale of the European Union, measured by the Total Ecosystem Services Index (TESI8). Moreover, the paper reports how further implementation of GI across Europe can help maintain ecosystem services at baseline levels. Current demographic, economic and agricultural trends, which affect land use, were derived from the so called Reference Scenario. This scenario is established by the European Commission to assess the impact of energy and climate policy up to 2050. Under the Reference Scenario, economic growth, coupled with the total population, stimulates increasing urban and industrial expansion. TESI8 is expected to decrease across Europe between 0 and 5 % by 2020 and between 10 and 15 % by 2050 relative to the base year 2010. Based on regression analysis, we estimated that every additional percent increase of the proportion of artificial land needs to be compensated with an increase of 2.2 % of land that qualifies as green infrastructure in order to maintain ecosystem services at 2010 levels.

Evaluation of Shipbuilding CAD/CAM/CIM Systems - Phase II (Requirements for Future Systems)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Horvath, John; Ross, Jonathan M

1997-01-01

.... The purpose of the analysis was two fold: 1. To describe the requirements of a competitive, future-oriented computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing/computer-integrated management (CAD/CAMYCIM...

Land use changes in Europe: Processes of change, environmental transformations, and future patterns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brouwer, F.M.; Thomas, A.J.; Chadwick, M.J.

1991-01-01

As the pressures to control costs and resources expended on cleaning up hazardous waste sites increase, there is a growing notion that consideration of ultimate land use or end states should aid in focusing remediation efforts, and thus, controlling costs. Resources would not be expended on all sites equally, rather knowledge that a particular site is most likely to be used for industrial rather than residential purposes, for example, would influence the type of clean-up invoked at a site and the clean-up goals themselves. Thus, land use has become a hot topic among environmental risk assessors and risk managers. This milieu makes the contents of Volume 18 in Kluwer's GeoJournal Library of particular interest. The book is a collection of papers, with contributors from across Europe. The paper generally fall into three categories: analyses of historical land use patterns in particular countries, forecasts of changing land use trends for the EC countries, and analyses of particular factors affecting land use decisions (atmospheric contamination, hydrologic regimes, land use decision methodologies). Although very little of the text deals explicitly with hazardous waste clean up, the perspective provided by a view of the European struggles with land use allocations provides helpful context to those in the historically unlimited spaces of the United States just beginning to come to terms with the concept

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Requirements of Dry Season Boro Rice: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Acharjee, T. K.; Ludwig, F.; Halsema, G. V.; Hellegers, P.; Supit, I.

2017-12-01

The North-West part of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, because of dry season water shortage and high water demand for rice cultivation. A study was carried out to understand the impacts of recent climate change (1980-2013) and future consequences (for 2050s and 2080s) on water requirements of Boro rice. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), potential crop water requirement (∑ETC), effective rainfall (ER), potential irrigation requirement for crop evapotranspiration (∑ETC-ER) and net irrigation requirement of Boro rice were estimated in CropWat using observed daily climate data for recent trends and statistically downscaled and bias corrected GCM outputs (five models and two RCPs) for future scenarios. ETo showed a significant decreasing recent trends due to increasing relative humidity and decreasing wind speed and sun shine hours instead of an increase in temperature. However, the strong future increase in temperature will lead to an insignificant increase in ETo. ∑ETC showed a decreasing recent trend and will further decrease in the future because of shortened duration of Boro growth stages as crop's phenological response to increased temperature. The variations in trends of ∑ETC-ER found among different districts, are mainly linked to the variations in trends of changes in effective rainfall. During last three decades, the net irrigation requirement has decreased by 11% at an average rate of -4.4 mm/year, instead of a decreasing effective rainfall, mainly because of high rate of decrease of crop evapotranspiration (-5.9 mm/year). In future, although daily water requirement will increase, the total net irrigation requirement of Boro rice will decrease by 1.6% in 2050s and 7.4% in 2080s for RCP 8.5 scenario on an average for five models and four districts compared to the base period (1980-2013). High variations in projected changes in rainfall bring high uncertainty for future water requirements estimation. Therefore, a

The Role of Latin America’s Land and Water Resources for Global Food Security: Environmental Trade-Offs of Future Food Production Pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Flachsbarth, Insa; Willaarts, Bárbara; Xie, Hua; Pitois, Gauthier; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Ringler, Claudia; Garrido, Alberto

2015-01-01

One of humanity’s major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC’s agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)—a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector—to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. PMID:25617621

Future forestland area: impacts from population growth and other factors that affect land values.

Science.gov (United States)

Ralph J. Alig; Andrew J. Plantinga

2004-01-01

Shifting patterns of land use in the United States are associated with many of today's environmental concerns. Land-use shifts occur because of relative changes in land rents, which are determined in part by financial returns in commodity markets. In recent decades, more than 3 million ac shifted annually in or out of US forest use. Cross amounts of land-use...

Assessing the sensitivity of avian species abundance to land cover and climate

Science.gov (United States)

LeBrun, Jaymi J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Thompson, Frank R.; Dijak, William D.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.

2016-01-01

Climate projections for the Midwestern United States predict southerly climates to shift northward. These shifts in climate could alter distributions of species across North America through changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), or through climate-induced changes on land cover. Our objective was to determine the relative impacts of land cover and climate on the abundance of five bird species in the Central United States that have habitat requirements ranging from grassland and shrubland to forest. We substituted space for time to examine potential impacts of a changing climate by assessing climate and land cover relationships over a broad latitudinal gradient. We found positive and negative relationships of climate and land cover factors with avian abundances. Habitat variables drove patterns of abundance in migratory and resident species, although climate was also influential in predicting abundance for some species occupying more open habitat (i.e., prairie warbler, blue-winged warbler, and northern bobwhite). Abundance of northern bobwhite increased with winter temperature and was the species exhibiting the most significant effect of climate. Models for birds primarily occupying early successional habitats performed better with a combination of habitat and climate variables whereas models of species found in contiguous forest performed best with land cover alone. These varied species-specific responses present unique challenges to land managers trying to balance species conservation over a variety of land covers. Management activities focused on increasing forest cover may play a role in mitigating effects of future climate by providing habitat refugia to species vulnerable to projected changes. Conservation efforts would be best served focusing on areas with high species abundances and an array of habitats. Future work managing forests for resilience and resistance to climate change could benefit species already susceptible to climate impacts.

The Woman's Land Army: 1918-1920.

Science.gov (United States)

Laughlin, Margaret

1994-01-01

Describes the origins and work of the Women's Land Army, a World War I British volunteer agricultural production unit. Details similar program in the United States. Identifies the impact of the Women's Land Army including enhanced political, economic, and physical freedom for the participants and future generations of women. (CFR)

A remote sensing evaluation for agronomic land use mapping in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

It has become essential to prepare land use maps because these are recognized as necessary tools for the preparation of land capability, land classification and land suitability maps which in turn provide guidelines for the regional planning, development and future orientation of agriculture in the regional system.

The land management perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enemark, Stig

2006-01-01

paradigm. In many countries, and especially developing countries and countries in transition, the national capacity to manage land rights, restrictions and responsibilities is not well developed in terms of mature institutions and the necessary human resources and skills. In this regard, the capacity......Land management is the process by which the resources of land are put into good effect. Land management encompasses all activities associated with the management of land that are required to achieve sustainable development. The concept of land includes properties and natural resources and thereby...... encompasses the total natural and built environment. Land Administration Systems (LAS) are institutional frameworks complicated by the tasks they must perform, by national cultural, political and judicial settings, and by technology. This paper facilitates an overall understanding of the land management...

Incorporating sustainable development objectives into land administration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Williamson, Ian; Enemark, Stig; Wallace, Jude

2006-01-01

Historically, land administration systems (LAS) were built to support land markets and land taxation systems. In developed countries, these systems constitute substantial infrastructure provided through government for the benefit of overall public administration, citizens and businesses. These sy......Historically, land administration systems (LAS) were built to support land markets and land taxation systems. In developed countries, these systems constitute substantial infrastructure provided through government for the benefit of overall public administration, citizens and businesses...... lay in incorporating market based instruments (MBI) and complex commodities into LAS and revitalization of land information through inventive Web based initiatives. The EGM developed a vision outlined in this paper for future LAS sufficiently flexible to adapt to this changing world of new technology...

Quantifying the relative importance of greenhouse gas emissions from current and future savanna land use change across northern Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Bristow

2016-11-01

provide a total GHG emission from this land use change. The total emission from this savanna woodland was 148.3 Mg CO2-e ha−1 with the debris burning responsible for 121.9 Mg CO2-e ha−1 or 82 % of the total emission. The remaining emission was attributed to CO2 efflux from soil disturbance during site preparation for agriculture (10 % of the total emission and decay of debris during the curing period prior to burning (8 %. Over the same period, fluxes at the uncleared savanna woodland site were measured using a second flux tower and over the 22-month observation period, cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE was a net carbon sink of −2.1 Mg C ha−1, or −7.7 Mg CO2-e ha−1. Estimated emissions for this savanna type were then extrapolated to a regional-scale to (1 provide estimates of the magnitude of GHG emissions from any future deforestation and (2 compare them with GHG emissions from prescribed savanna burning that occurs across the northern Australian savanna every year. Emissions from current rate of annual savanna deforestation across northern Australia was double that of reported (non-CO2 only savanna burning. However, if the total GHG emission, CO2 plus non-CO2 emissions, is accounted for, burning emissions are an order of magnitude larger than that arising from savanna deforestation. We examined a scenario of expanded land use that required additional deforestation of savanna woodlands over and above current rates. This analysis suggested that significant expansion of deforestation area across the northern savanna woodlands could add an additional 3 % to Australia's national GHG account for the duration of the land use change. This bottom-up study provides data that can reduce uncertainty associated with land use change for this extensive tropical ecosystem and provide an assessment of the relative magnitude of GHG emissions from savanna burning and deforestation. Such knowledge can contribute to informing land use

FOOD CRISIS AS FACTOR OF FUTURE VALUE OF THE AGRICULTURAL LAND

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Avramchuk Bogdan

2017-08-01

Full Text Available At the present stage of human development, food is one of the most acute problems. Over the past 30-40 years, the growth rate of population in many countries of the world is ahead of the growth rate of agricultural production, which leads to acute shortage of food. This is especially true of developing countries, which accounts for the overwhelming majority of the population of the planet that is under-eating and starving. According to FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization, in the world now about half a billion people are constantly hungry and twice asleep. Insufficient consumption affects children in particular. Nearly 300 million children in Asia, Africa and Latin America are lagging behind in physical and mental development as a result of poor nutrition. Every day from hunger there are about 12 thousand people dying. According to FAO, food products around the world are produced in general enough to feed the entire population of the Earth. However, the main reason for the global food crisis is not that products are distributed among countries irrelevant to the population, although such a problem exists. Researchers believe that the food crisis is caused by the coincidence of demographic, environmental and energy problems with the effects of adverse weather conditions, as well as a colossal increase in military spending. Investigated the interconnection between the dynamics of population growth and world food production volumes with the areas of agricultural land and the possible influence of projected changes in agricultural land use on increasing the cost of agricultural land is substantiated. It was investigated that the average national land rent in Ukraine would increase by 25.5%. This in turn will lead to an increase in the value of agricultural land in Ukraine.

Quantifying the spatial implications of future land use policies in South Africa

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Le Roux, A.; Augustijn-Beckers, Petronella

2017-01-01

Land use policies have a definite and lasting impact on the way that cities grow; however, it is difficult for policy- and decision-makers to observe and quantify the implications of their land use policies and strategies. There is thus a need for information and tools that can adequately support

Participatory Land Administration on Customary Lands: A Practical VGI Experiment in Nanton, Ghana

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kwabena Asiama

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Land information is one of the basic requirements for land management activities such as land consolidation. However, the dearth of land information on customary lands limits the development and application of land consolidation. This paper presents and discusses the results of an experiment carried out to test the potential of participatory land administration applied on customary lands in support of land consolidation. A brief overview of the evolution of crowdsourced, voluntary, and participatory approaches is provided alongside newly related insights into neogeography and neo-cadastre, and fit-for-purpose and pro-poor land administration. The concept of participatory land administration is then developed in this context. The area of the experiment is in Northern Ghana where the process was developed together with the local farming community. The study involved collecting land information relating to farms over a two-week period, using a mobile app and a satellite image, based on participatory land administration. The results show that Participatory Land Administration can potentially support land consolidation, though further investigation is needed on how it can be integrated into the formal land registration system, into an actual land consolidation project.

Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: an evaluation of two land-use change models.

Science.gov (United States)

Claggett, Peter R; Jantz, Claire A; Goetz, Scott J; Bisland, Carin

2004-06-01

Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations.

Future requirements for petroleum fuels - an environmental perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

White, R.

1998-01-01

The environmental impacts of fuel emissions were discussed. Emissions from petroleum fuels are the largest contributor to a wide range of environmental problems including damage to the ozone layer and risks to human health. Forecasts indicate that future demand for fossil fuels for energy will continue to grow. The transportation sector is the largest single source of air emissions in Canada. The environmental requirements for all fuels will become progressively more stringent. The pollutants of primary concern include toxics, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide, and particulates. The U.S. auto-oil research program has conducted considerable research to understand the impact of fuel parameters of vehicle tailpipe emissions. In Canada, lead was removed from Canadian gas a decade ago. Since January 1998, low sulphur diesel (less than 500 ppm) is required for on-road use. Regulations have also been passed to reduce the level of benzene in gasoline to less than one per cent by mid-1999. It will be necessary to manage our fossil fuels to minimize the environmental impacts from combustion. In the longer term, it will be necessary to minimize fossil fuel use through conservation and shift to less polluting fuels

The Push and Pull of Land Use Policy: Reconstructing 150 Years of Development and Conservation Land Acquisition

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Maria João; Watt, Terry; Pincetl, Stephanie

2014-01-01

The growth of human populations and their resource needs have stressed the conservation of natural land resources. Many policies and programs have been implemented to address the pressures on land resources and notwithstanding this pressure, significant acquisition of land for conservation has occurred throughout history in the U.S., and internationally. Here we assess the on-the-ground result of the evolution of land use policies in California as a pioneer forerunner, in the form of acquisition of land for conservation (i.e. Open Space), and its impact on the rest of the U.S. and beyond. To this end we describe the timeline and spatial representation of the growth of California’s conservation network over the last 150 years, and link it to the history of land use policies. We then assess whether conservation land acquisition has consistently grown through time or occurred in specific decades. About ¼ of the state is now designated Open Space. Fewer and larger areas conserved and acquired at the beginning of the 20th century; the conservation network was complemented with a larger number of smaller sized properties. Despite acquisition of land in every decade, the process was uneven (E = 0.3 for California, E = 0.14±0.08 average for the state’s counties), mostly due to the large acquisitions and land set asides in the 1900s, followed by 1930s and 1940s. This process was a result of a comprehensive set of legislation that evolved through time, and resulted from the competing needs for development and conservation. Even with the impressive 174,000 km2 of public lands in California, the future of California’s natural infrastructure and natural heritage cannot rely solely on these public lands, nor public agencies and their resources. Critically a future course of land preservation relying on the purchase of new lands – in California and beyond – for conservation is tremendously expensive. PMID:25075611

Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, Christopher M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Pidgeon, Anna M.

2015-01-01

Land-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.

METHODOLOGICAL BASIS IMPOSING RESTRICTIONS IN LAND USE, BURDENED LAND RIGHTS DURING LAND TENURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dorosh J.

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The question of balanced consolidation of social legislation in a reasonable ratio of land rights and the interests of society as a whole, as well as local communities, citizens and legal entities established by them are general in nature and require specificity it is. Proved that one way of solving this problem is the establishment of restoictions of land rights, restrictions in land use. However, the mechanism of regulation establishment, implementation and termination of restrictions on the rights to land are not very functional and needs improvement. Current legislation in Ukraine does not contain a balanced set of regulations that would determine the nature and objectives of the restrictions, including encumbrances of land rights, their types, the reasons establishing and implementing restrictions of ownership and other rights to land and so on. Based on our analysis, we provide scientifically grounded suggestions on improving the legal framework, particularly, in terms of restrictions on land use and registration in the land management process, as an important means of influence on those rights in order to ensure rational land use and protection it is. Proved that the efficiency of administrative decisions during setting restrictions on land use purpose and usage of land is possible on the basis of land zoning, thus, it is necessary to adopt the Law of Ukraine "On land zoning." In addition, the current classification of land use restrictions, which was proposed by prominent scientists in Ukraine AM Tretyak (classification of restrictions in land use by functional features, and D.S. Dobryak and D.I. Babmindra (classification of restrictions on land use based on their placement by owners and land users, is complemented by types, namely: legal, environmental, ecological, technological, sanitation, urban and special. In the result of scientific studies,we have proposed a model of methodological process of land management actions on formation

Achieving a Sustainable Urban Form through Land Use Optimisation: Insights from Bekasi City’s Land-Use Plan (2010–2030

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rahmadya Trias Handayanto

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Cities worldwide have been trying to achieve a sustainable urban form to handle their rapid urban growth. Many sustainable urban forms have been studied and two of them, the compact city and the eco city, were chosen in this study as urban form foundations. Based on these forms, four sustainable city criteria (compactness, compatibility, dependency, and suitability were considered as necessary functions for land use optimisation. This study presents a land use optimisation as a method for achieving a sustainable urban form. Three optimisation methods (particle swarm optimisation, genetic algorithms, and a local search method were combined into a single hybrid optimisation method for land use in Bekasi city, Indonesia. It was also used for examining Bekasi city’s land-use-plan (2010–2030 after optimising current (2015 and future land use (2030. After current land use optimisation, the score of sustainable city criteria increased significantly. Three important centres of land use (commercial, industrial, and residential were also created through clustering the results. These centres were slightly different from centres of the city plan zones. Additional land uses in 2030 were predicted using a nonlinear autoregressive neural network with external input. Three scenarios were used for allocating these additional land uses including sustainable development, government policy, and business-as-usual. Future land use allocation in 2030 found that the sustainable development scenario showed better performance compared to government policy and business-as-usual scenarios.

Underpinning Land Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enemark, Stig

This paper provides an overall understanding of the concept of land administration systems for dealing with rights, restrictions and responsibilities in future spatially enabled government. Further, the paper presents the role of FIG with regard to building the capacity in this area and responding...

Future changes in water requirements of Boro rice in the face of climate change in North-West Bangladesh

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Acharjee, Tapos Kumar; Ludwig, Fulco; Halsema, van Gerardo; Hellegers, Petra; Supit, Iwan

2017-01-01

Understanding future changes in crop water requirements and irrigation demand in the context of climate change is essential for long-term water resources management and agricultural planning. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on future water requirements of dry season Boro

Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

2011-01-01

development plans. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. This may be explained by the in-consistency between the logic of spatial master planning - and the organic or driver-dependent character of urban growth assumed by land use modelling...... approaches. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change......Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Projections of the future demand for urban development as well as decisions on how and where to accommodate this demand is part of the planning process and reflected in strategic- and local...

Land-Use Change and Bioenergy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2011-07-01

This publication describes the Biomass Program’s efforts to examine the intersection of land-use change and bioenergy production. It describes legislation requiring land-use change assessments, key data and modeling challenges, and the research needs to better assess and understand the impact of bioenergy policy on land-use decisions.

Overview of Biotechnology Futures: Possible Applications to Land Force Development

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Egudo, Margaret

2004-01-01

This review of selected scientific and technological advances occurring in the field of biotechnology discusses their possible impact for Land Force capability development in the next decade or two...

Geothermal energy and the law. I. The Federal Lands Management Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stone, C.D.; McNamara, J.

1975-09-30

A broad range of problems in the legal and institutional environment which hampers the development of the geothermal industry is discussed. The topics include: the development of geothermal energy; pre-leasing procedures--public vs. private assessment; exploratory permits and related strategies; the rate of geothermal leasing-past and future; compensation strategies; lessee qualifications; lands available for leasing; noncompensatory lease terms; ongoing leasehold and production requirements; problems of ''secondary'' geothermal uses; and water law conflicts. (LBS)

Land-restoration provisions of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act: constitutional considerations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eichbaum, W.M.; Buente, D.T.

1980-01-01

This examination of the land-capability requirements of SMCRA rested upon the proposition that a proper application of constitutional principles requires an appreciation of changing national conditions. Accordingly, this article examined the possible Fifth and Tenth Amendment challenges to SMCRA's land-capability provisions in the context of an evolving history of national concern over natural resources and in light of lengthy congressional deliberations based on concern for future national environmental and energy needs. The analysis suggests that SMCRA's land-capability requirements are well within the constitutional authority of the national government. The history of environmental protection legislation in the 1970's suggests that Federal action will increasingly impose regulatory restraints on the use of privately-owned natural resources. This trend is meeting strong resistance, including varied demands to reduce the impact and scope of Federal regulation. While the conclusion may be limited to SMCRA, its approach to examining constitutional challenges to Federal regulation protecting natural resources can be broadly applied. Natural resources are essential, finite, and irrevocably threatened by human activity. In the absence of effective state action, Federal protective action to provide national management of those resources is necessary and consistent with constitutional principles. 184 references.

Wireless Technology Use Case Requirement Analysis for Future Space Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Abedi, Ali; Wilkerson, DeLisa

2016-01-01

This report presents various use case scenarios for wireless technology -including radio frequency (RF), optical, and acoustic- and studies requirements and boundary conditions in each scenario. The results of this study can be used to prioritize technology evaluation and development and in the long run help in development of a roadmap for future use of wireless technology. The presented scenarios cover the following application areas: (i) Space Vehicles (manned/unmanned), (ii) Satellites and Payloads, (iii) Surface Explorations, (iv) Ground Systems, and (v) Habitats. The requirement analysis covers two parallel set of conditions. The first set includes the environmental conditions such as temperature, radiation, noise/interference, wireless channel characteristics and accessibility. The second set of requirements are dictated by the application and may include parameters such as latency, throughput (effective data rate), error tolerance, and reliability. This report provides a comprehensive overview of all requirements from both perspectives and details their effects on wireless system reliability and network design. Application area examples are based on 2015 NASA Technology roadmap with specific focus on technology areas: TA 2.4, 3.3, 5.2, 5.5, 6.4, 7.4, and 10.4 sections that might benefit from wireless technology.

Integrating Future Land Use Scenarios to Evaluate the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Landscape Ecological Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Lu

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Urban ecological security is the basic principle of national ecological security. However, analyses of the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security remain limited, especially those that consider different scenarios of urban development. In this study, an integrated method is proposed that combines the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE-S model with the Pressure–State–Response (P-S-R framework to assess landscape ecological security (LES in Huangshan City, China under two scenarios. Our results suggest the following conclusions: (1 the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security are closely related to the urbanization process; (2 although the average values of landscape ecological security are similar under different scenarios, the areas of relatively high security levels vary considerably; and (3 spatial heterogeneity in ecological security exists between different districts and counties, and the city center and its vicinity may face relatively serious declines in ecological security in the future. Overall, the proposed method not only illustrates the spatio-temporal dynamics of landscape ecological security under different scenarios but also reveals the anthropogenic effects on ecosystems by differentiating between causes, effects, and human responses at the landscape scale. This information is of great significance to decision-makers for future urban planning and management.

Agricultural Crown Land in Saskatchewan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pyle, W.E.

1998-01-01

The petroleum industry's interest in provincial crown land in the agricultural area of Saskatchewan has grown over the last two decades. Agricultural land is regulated by the Saskatchewan Department of Agriculture and Food, Lands Branch. Since 1974 surface lease contracts by oil and gas companies have increased from 1,400 to the present 3,700. Resource lands are regulated by Saskatchewan Environment and Resource Management. There are 8.8 million acres of crown agricultural land in Saskatchewan, most of which is held without title. Crown land management is meant to provide a long term management approach to crown lands that balances economic, environmental and social benefits for present and future generations. The oil and gas industry is an important participant in crown land management. Revenues from petroleum and gas surface leasing, and seismic licensing totals more than five million dollars annually. In 1995/96, there were 54 companies establishing new oil and gas leases on crown land in Saskatchewan. This paper provides details of current policies which apply to petroleum and gas leasing and seismic exploration, and environmental guidelines for companies developing well sites, compressor and metering stations, access roads and easements. 3 tabs

Completion of the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 1992–2001 Land Cover Change Retrofit product

Science.gov (United States)

Fry, J.A.; Coan, Michael; Homer, Collin G.; Meyer, Debra K.; Wickham, J.D.

2009-01-01

The Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium has supported the development of two national digital land cover products: the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 1992 and National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2001. Substantial differences in imagery, legends, and methods between these two land cover products must be overcome in order to support direct comparison. The NLCD 1992-2001 Land Cover Change Retrofit product was developed to provide more accurate and useful land cover change data than would be possible by direct comparison of NLCD 1992 and NLCD 2001. For the change analysis method to be both national in scale and timely, implementation required production across many Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) path/rows simultaneously. To meet these requirements, a hybrid change analysis process was developed to incorporate both post-classification comparison and specialized ratio differencing change analysis techniques. At a resolution of 30 meters, the completed NLCD 1992-2001 Land Cover Change Retrofit product contains unchanged pixels from the NLCD 2001 land cover dataset that have been cross-walked to a modified Anderson Level I class code, and changed pixels labeled with a 'from-to' class code. Analysis of the results for the conterminous United States indicated that about 3 percent of the land cover dataset changed between 1992 and 2001.

Water Rights on Community Lands: LandMark’s Findings from 100 Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liz Alden Wily

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes whether national laws acknowledge indigenous peoples and other rural communities in 100 countries as owners of waters that arise within their lands. Results derive from information collected by LandMark to score the legal status of community land tenure. Findings are positive; half of all countries recognize communities as lawful possessors of water on their lands. Three quarters permit communities to manage the distribution and use of water on their lands. While 71 percent of countries declare water to be a public resource, this belies the substantial existence of privately owned water. In 29 percent of countries, private water is an identified legal category, and in many other countries obtainable rights to water are sufficiently substantial to imply lawful possession. Communities are beneficiaries mainly where customary rights are accorded status as property rights, or where ownership of public lands and water are devolved to rural collectives. However, opposite trends of nationalization and regulation of water suggest that while legal recognition of community land ownership may rise in the future, this will not necessarily include waters on the land. Irrespective of tenure, rural communities in 72 of 77 countries (93.5 percent are legally assured access to water for domestic purposes. This is consistent with the rising definition of safe drinking water as a human right, although access does not necessarily come free of cost.

Mars-Moons Exploration, Reconnaissance and Landed Investigation (MERLIN)

Science.gov (United States)

Murchie, S. L.; Chabot, N. L.; Buczkowski, D.; Arvidson, R. E.; Castillo, J. C.; Peplowski, P. N.; Ernst, C. M.; Rivkin, A.; Eng, D.; Chmielewski, A. B.; Maki, J.; trebi-Ollenu, A.; Ehlmann, B. L.; Spence, H. E.; Horanyi, M.; Klingelhoefer, G.; Christian, J. A.

2015-12-01

The Mars-Moons Exploration, Reconnaissance and Landed Investigation (MERLIN) is a NASA Discovery mission proposal to explore the moons of Mars. Previous Mars-focused spacecraft have raised fundamental questions about Mars' moons: What are their origins and compositions? Why do the moons resemble primitive outer solar system D-type objects? How do geologic processes modify their surfaces? MERLIN answers these questions through a combination of orbital and landed measurements, beginning with reconnaissance of Deimos and investigation of the hypothesized Martian dust belts. Orbital reconnaissance of Phobos occurs, followed by low flyovers to characterize a landing site. MERLIN lands on Phobos, conducting a 90-day investigation. Radiation measurements are acquired throughout all mission phases. Phobos' size and mass provide a low-risk landing environment: controlled descent is so slow that the landing is rehearsed, but gravity is high enough that surface operations do not require anchoring. Existing imaging of Phobos reveals low regional slope regions suitable for landing, and provides knowledge for planning orbital and landed investigations. The payload leverages past NASA investments. Orbital imaging is accomplished by a dual multispectral/high-resolution imager rebuilt from MESSENGER/MDIS. Mars' dust environment is measured by the refurbished engineering model of LADEE/LDEX, and the radiation environment by the flight spare of LRO/CRaTER. The landed workspace is characterized by a color stereo imager updated from MER/HazCam. MERLIN's arm deploys landed instrumentation using proven designs from MER, Phoenix, and MSL. Elemental measurements are acquired by a modified version of Rosetta/APXS, and an uncooled gamma-ray spectrometer. Mineralogical measurements are acquired by a microscopic imaging spectrometer developed under MatISSE. MERLIN delivers seminal science traceable to NASA's Strategic Goals and Objectives, Science Plan, and the Decadal Survey. MERLIN's science

Temporal dynamics of land use/land cover change and its prediction using CA-ANN model for southwestern coastal Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, M Tauhid Ur; Tabassum, Faheemah; Rasheduzzaman, Md; Saba, Humayra; Sarkar, Lina; Ferdous, Jannatul; Uddin, Syed Zia; Zahedul Islam, A Z M

2017-10-17

Change analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) is a technique to study the environmental degradation and to control the unplanned development. Analysis of the past changing trend of LULC along with modeling future LULC provides a combined opportunity to evaluate and guide the present and future land use policy. The southwest coastal region of Bangladesh, especially Assasuni Upazila of Satkhira District, is the most vulnerable to natural disasters and has faced notable changes in its LULC due to the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic causes. The objectives of this study are to illustrate the temporal dynamics of LULC change in Assasuni Upazila over the last 27 years (i.e., between 1989 and 2015) and also to predict future land use change using CA-ANN (cellular automata and artificial neural network) model for the year 2028. Temporal dynamics of LULC change was analyzed, employing supervised classification of multi-temporal Landsat images. Then, prediction of future LULC was carried out by CA-ANN model using MOLUSCE plugin of QGIS. The analysis of LULC change revealed that the LULC of Assasuni had changed notably during 1989 to 2015. "Bare lands" decreased by 21% being occupied by other land uses, especially by "shrimp farms." Shrimp farm area increased by 25.9% during this period, indicating a major occupational transformation from agriculture to shrimp aquaculture in the study area during the period under study. Reduction in "settlement" area revealed the trend of migration from the Upazila. The predicted LULC for the year 2028 showed that reduction in bare land area would continue and 1595.97 ha bare land would transform into shrimp farm during 2015 to 2028. Also, the impacts of the changing LULC on the livelihood of local people and migration status of the Upazila were analyzed from the data collected through focus group discussions and questionnaire surveys. The analysis revealed that the changing LULC and the occupational shift from paddy

Succeeding criteria of community based on land transportation infrastructure for Johor innovation valley development

Science.gov (United States)

Redzuan, Amir A.; Aminudin, Eeydzah; Zakaria, Rozana; Ghazali, Farid Ezanee Mohamed; Baharudin, Nur Azwa Amyra; Siang, Lee Yong

2017-10-01

Developing countries around the world have developed innovative centre, or known as innovation hub, to meet the demand of today's changing global competitive environment. The shift of economic sector from manufacturing to services has allowed numerous regions and cities around the world to undergo major structural changes. In Malaysia, Skudai area is on its way of becoming a community-based innovation hub under the Johor State Economic Growth Strategic Plan called Johor Innovation Valley (JIV). Towards this new-city concept, land transportation infrastructure is among the most important network in being a linkage to the source of contribution in enhancing the local innovative environment. This paper highlights the requirement of land transportation infrastructure criteria that would be effective in making Skudai a community-based innovation hub. Data were collected through survey questionnaires involving stakeholders with the knowledge of land transportation infrastructure who also lives within the area. Descriptive analysis was employed with further rank breakdown using Average Index analysis. The findings distinguish the differences between each criteria of land transportation infrastructure. Change in traffic system, easier accessibility to one place to another and attraction to outside investor are among the impacts of growth of JIV. This paper concluded that selected requirement of land transportation infrastructure criteria is necessary for future contribution towards the growth of the JIV.

Future Expansion of Agriculture and Pasture Acts to Amplify Atmospheric CO2 Levels in Response to Fossil-Fuel and Land-Use Change Emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gitz, V.; Ciais, P.

2004-01-01

The expansion of crop and pastures to the detriment of forests results in an increase in atmospheric CO2. The first obvious cause is the loss of forest biomass and soil carbon during and after conversion. The second, generally ignored cause, is the reduction of the residence time of carbon when, for example, forests or grasslands are converted to cultivated land. This decreases the sink capacity of the global terrestrial biosphere, and thereby may amplify the atmospheric CO2 rise due to fossil and land-use carbon release. For the IPCC A2 future scenario, characterized by high fossil and high land-use emissions, we show that the land-use amplifier effect adds 61 ppm extra CO2 in the atmosphere by 2100 as compared to former treatment of land-use processes in carbon models. Investigating the individual contribution of each of the six land-use transitions (forest crop, forest pasture, grassland crop) to the amplifier effect indicates that the clearing of forest and grasslands to arable lands explains most of the CO2 amplification. The amplification effect is 50% higher than in a previous analysis by the same authors which considered neither the deforestation of pastures nor the ploughing of grasslands. Such an amplification effect is further examined in sensitivity tests where the net primary productivity is considered independent of the atmospheric CO2. We also show that the land-use changes, which have already occurred in the recent past, have a strong inertia at releasing CO2, and will contribute to about 1/3 of the amplification effect by 2100. These results suggest that there is an additional atmospheric benefit of preserving pristine ecosystems with high turnover times

Current Status and Future Potential of Energy Derived from Chinese Agricultural Land: A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ningning Zhai

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Energy crisis is receiving attention with regard to the global economy and environmental sustainable development. Developing new energy resources to optimize the energy supply structure has become an important measure to prevent energy shortage as well as achieving energy conservation and emission reduction in China. This study proposed the concept of energy agriculture and constructed an energy agricultural technical support system based on the analysis of energy supply and demand and China’s foreign dependence on energy resources, combined with the function of agriculture in the energy field. Manufacturing technology equipment and agricultural and forestry energy, including crop or forestry plants and animal feces, were used in the system. The current status and future potential of China’s marginal land resources, energy crop germplasm resources, and agricultural and forestry waste energy-oriented resources were analyzed. Developing the function of traditional agriculture in food production may promote China’s social, economic, and environmental sustainable development and achieve energy saving and emission reduction.

DOE Land Disposal Restrictions Strategy Report for Radioactive Mixed Waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-09-01

This report represents an effort by the Department of Energy (DOE) and its contractors to develop a strategy for achieving radioactive mixed waste (RMW) compliance with the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Land Disposal Restrictions (LDR). Preliminary information provided by the Operations Offices has been reviewed to formulate an overall strategy that will enable DOE operations to comply with the Land Disposal Restrictions. The effort has concluded that all DOE Operations Offices are impacted by LDR due to the inability to meet existing and future LDR storage prohibition requirements or treatment standards for RMW. A total of 178 RMW streams subject to LDR are identified in this report. Quantities of RMW impacted by LDR have been estimated at approximately 710,785 cubic meters. DOE must place a high priority on resolving LDR compliance issues. Failure to resolve these issues could result in the curtailment of waste generating operations at DOE facilities. Actions will be required from both DOE (Headquarters and Operations Offices) and EPA in order to achieve DOE complex-wide compliance. Specific recommendations are included. 1 fig., 4 tabs

Risky Business: Sustainability and Industrial Land Use across Seattle’s Gentrifying Riskscape

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Troy D. Abel

2015-11-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the spatial and temporal trajectories of Seattle’s industrial land use restructuring and the shifting riskscape in Seattle, WA, a commonly recognized urban model of sustainability. Drawing on the perspective of sustainability as a conflicted process, this research explored the intersections of urban industrial and nonindustrial land use planning, gentrification, and environmental injustice. In the first part of our research, we combine geographic cluster analysis and longitudinal air toxic emission comparisons to quantitatively investigate socioeconomic changes in Seattle Census block-groups between 1990, 2000, and 2009 coupled with measures of pollution volume and its relative potential risk. Second, we qualitatively examine Seattle’s historical land use policies and planning and the growing tension between industrial and nonindustrial land use. The gentrification, green cities, and growth management conflicts embedded within sustainability/livability lead to pollution exposure risk and socioeconomic vulnerability converging in the same areas and reveal one of Seattle’s significant environmental challenges. Our mixed-method approach can guide future urban sustainability studies to more effectively examine the connections between land use planning, industrial displacement, and environmental injustice. Our results also help sustainable development practitioners recognize that a more just sustainability in Seattle and beyond will require more planning and policy attention to mitigate obscured industrial land use conflicts.

Sourcebook for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Projects

OpenAIRE

Pearson, Timothy; Walker, Sarah; Brown, Sandra

2013-01-01

This sourcebook is designed to be a guide for developing and implementing land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) projects for the BioCarbon Fund of the World Bank that meet the requirements for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol. Only project types and carbon pools that are eligible for credit under the CDM during the first commitment period (2008-2012) ar...

Detecting Chemical Weapons: Threats, Requirements, Solutions, and Future Challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Boso, Brian

2011-03-01

Although chemicals have been reportedly used as weapons for thousands of years, it was not until 1915 at Ypres, France that an industrial chemical, chlorine, was used in World War I as an offensive weapon in significant quantity, causing mass casualties. From that point until today the development, detection, production and protection from chemical weapons has be an organized endeavor of many of the world's armed forces and in more recent times, non-governmental terrorist organizations. The number of Chemical Warfare Agents (CWAs) has steadily increased as research into more toxic substances continued for most of the 20 th century. Today there are over 70 substances including harassing agents like tear gas, incapacitating agents, and lethal agents like blister, blood, chocking, and nerve agents. The requirements for detecting chemical weapons vary depending on the context in which they are encountered and the concept of operation of the organization deploying the detection equipment. The US DoD, for example, has as a requirement, that US forces be able to continue their mission, even in the event of a chemical attack. This places stringent requirements on detection equipment. It must be lightweight (developed for this application, including, but not limited to: mass spectroscopy, IR spectroscopy, RAMAN spectroscopy, MEMs micro-cantilever sensors, surface acoustic wave sensors, differential mobility spectrometry, and amplifying fluorescence polymers. In the future the requirements for detection equipment will continue to become even more stringent. The continuing increase in the sheer number of threats that will need to be detected, the development of binary agents requiring that even the precursor chemicals be detected, the development of new types of agents unlike any of the current chemistries, and the expansion of the list of toxic industrial chemical will require new techniques with higher specificity and more sensitivity.

Land Use Land Cover Change in the fringe of eThekwini ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Concerns on urban environmental quality, increasing knowledge on impacts of climate change and pursuit for sustainable development have increased the need for past, current and future knowledge on the transformation of remnant urban fringe green ecosystems. Using land-cover change modeler and a Markov chain ...

LandIT Database

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iftikhar, Nadeem; Pedersen, Torben Bach

2010-01-01

and reporting purposes. This paper presents the LandIT database; which is result of the LandIT project, which refers to an industrial collaboration project that developed technologies for communication and data integration between farming devices and systems. The LandIT database in principal is based...... on the ISOBUS standard; however the standard is extended with additional requirements, such as gradual data aggregation and flexible exchange of farming data. This paper describes the conceptual and logical schemas of the proposed database based on a real-life farming case study....

The emerging land management paradigm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enemark, Stig

for comprehensive information about environmental conditions in combination with other land related data. It is argued that development of such a model is important or even necessary for facilitating a holistic approach to the management of land as the key asset of any nation or jurisdiction. Finally, the paper......Land management is the process by which the resources of land are put into good effect. Land management encompasses all activities associated with the management of land that are required to achieve sustainable development. The concept of land includes properties and natural resources and thereby...... encompasses the total natural and built environment. Land Administration Systems (LAS) are institutional frameworks complicated by the tasks they must perform, by national cultural, political and judicial settings, and by technology. This paper facilitates an overall understanding of the land management...

Project M: Scale Model of Lunar Landing Site of Apollo 17

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, Hollie; Crain, Timothy P.

2010-01-01

The basis of the project was creating a scale model representation of the Apollo 17 lunar landing site. Vital components included surface slope characteristics, crater sizes and locations, prominent rocks, and lighting conditions. The model was made for Project M support when evaluating approach and terminal descent as well as when planning surface operations with respect to the terrain. The project had five main mi lestones during the length of the project. The first was examining the best method to use to re-create the Apollo 17 landing site and then reviewing research fmdings with Dr. Tim Crain and EO staff which occurred on June 25, 2010 at a meeting. The second step was formulating a construction plan, budget, and schedule and then presenting the plan for authority to proceed which occurred on July 6,2010. The third part was building a prototype to test materials and building processes which were completed by July 13, 2010. Next was assembling the landing site model and presenting a mid-term construction status report on July 29, 2010. The fifth and final milestone was demonstrating the model and presenting an exit pitch which happened on August 4, 2010. The project was very technical: it needed a lot of research about moon topography, lighting conditions and angles of the sun on the moon, Apollo 17, and Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT), before starting the actual building process. This required using Spreadsheets, searching internet sources and conducting personal meetings with project representatives. This information assisted the interns in deciding the scale of the model with respect to cracks, craters and rocks and their relative sizes as the objects mentioned could interfere with any of the Lunar Landers: Apollo, Project M and future Landers. The project concluded with the completion of a three dimensional scale model of the Apollo 17 Lunar landing site. This model assists Project M members because they can now visualize

Employers’ Perspectives on Future Roles and Skills Requirements for Australian Health Librarians

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheryl Hamill

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Objective – This study, which comprises one stage of a larger project (ALIA/HLA Workforce and Education Research Project, aimed to discover employers’ views on how (or whether health librarians assist in achieving the mission-critical goals of their organizations; how health librarians contribute to the organization now and into the future; and what are the current and future skills requirements of health librarians.Methods – Each member of the project group approached between one and five individuals known to them to generate a convenience sample of 22 employers of health librarians. There were 15 semi-structured interviews conducted between October and November 2010 with employers in the hospital, academic, government, private, consumer health and not-for-profit sectors. The interview schedule was sent to each interviewee prior to the interview so that they had time to consider their responses. The researchers wrote up the interview notes using the interview schedule and submitted them to the principal researcher, who combined the data into one document. Content analysis of the data was used to identify major themes.Results – Employers expressed a clear sense of respect for the roles and responsibilities of library staff in their organizations. Areas of practice such as education and training, scientific research and clinical support were highlighted as critical for the future. Current areas of practice such as using technology and systems to manage information, providing information services to meet user needs and management of health information resources in a range of formats were identified as remaining highly relevant for the future. There was potential for health librarians to play a more active and strategic role in their organizations, and to repackage their traditional skill sets for anticipated future roles. Interpersonal skills and the role of health librarians as the interface between clinicians and information technology

Bringing multiple values to the table: assessing future land-use and climate change in North Kona, Hawaiʻi

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leah L. Bremer

2018-03-01

Full Text Available As ecosystem service assessments increasingly contribute to decisions about managing Earth's lands and waters, there is a growing need to understand the diverse ways that people use and value landscapes. However, these assessments rarely incorporate the value of landscapes to communities with strong cultural and generational ties to place, precluding inclusion of these values - alongside others - into planning processes. We developed a process to evaluate trade-offs and synergies in ecosystem services across land-use scenarios and under climate change in North Kona, Hawaiʻi, a tropical dry ecosystem where water, fire, biodiversity, and cultural values are all critical considerations for land management decisions. Specifically, we combined participatory deliberative methods, ecosystem service models, vegetation surveys, and document analysis to evaluate how cultural services, regulating services (groundwater recharge, landscape flammability reduction, biodiversity, and revenue: (1 vary across four land-use scenarios (pasture, coffee, agroforestry, and native forest restoration and (2 are expected to vary with climate change (representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5 mid-century scenario. The native forest restoration scenario provided high cultural, biodiversity, and ecosystem service value, whereas coffee's strongest benefit was monetary return. The agroforestry scenario offered the greatest potential in terms of maximizing multiple services. Pasture had relatively low ecological and economic value but, as with native forest and agroforestry, held high value in terms of local knowledge and cultural connection to place. Climate change amplified existing vulnerabilities for groundwater recharge and landscape flammability, but resulted in few shifts in the ranking of land-use scenarios. Our results demonstrate that cultural services need not be sacrificed at the expense of other management objectives if they are deliberately included in land

Classification of Land Cover and Land Use Based on Convolutional Neural Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Chun; Rottensteiner, Franz; Heipke, Christian

2018-04-01

Land cover describes the physical material of the earth's surface, whereas land use describes the socio-economic function of a piece of land. Land use information is typically collected in geospatial databases. As such databases become outdated quickly, an automatic update process is required. This paper presents a new approach to determine land cover and to classify land use objects based on convolutional neural networks (CNN). The input data are aerial images and derived data such as digital surface models. Firstly, we apply a CNN to determine the land cover for each pixel of the input image. We compare different CNN structures, all of them based on an encoder-decoder structure for obtaining dense class predictions. Secondly, we propose a new CNN-based methodology for the prediction of the land use label of objects from a geospatial database. In this context, we present a strategy for generating image patches of identical size from the input data, which are classified by a CNN. Again, we compare different CNN architectures. Our experiments show that an overall accuracy of up to 85.7 % and 77.4 % can be achieved for land cover and land use, respectively. The classification of land cover has a positive contribution to the classification of the land use classification.

Interpretation of scenario results in terms of described and mapped land change trajectories and archetypes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kuemmerle, Tobias; Stürck, Julia; Levers, Christian

Module VISIONS seeks to identify critical pathways to reach desired futures for land systems (i.e., visions). In order to do so, work package (WP) 11 links the model-based scenarios (module ASSESSMENT) to the visions formulated derived in a transdisciplinary process together with stakeholders...... of future developments of current land change archetypes; and (3) an interpretation of future land change in light of long-term land system trajectories. Synthesizing across these analyses, six key insights emerged. First, future land change was relatively similar across marker scenarios and different...... policy alternatives, for many regions in Europe, suggesting strong path dependency. Second, the impact of policy options can differ (a) between regions in Europe and (b) among marker scenarios, highlighting the need for contextualized, regionalized policy making. Third, the expansion and intensification...

Idaho National Laboratory Comprehensive Land Use and Environmental Stewardship Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

No name listed on publication

2011-08-01

Land and facility use planning and decisions at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site are guided by a comprehensive site planning process in accordance with Department of Energy Policy 430.1, 'Land and Facility Use Policy,' that integrates mission, economic, ecologic, social, and cultural factors. The INL Ten-Year Site Plan, prepared in accordance with Department of Energy Order 430.1B, 'Real Property Asset Management,' outlines the vision and strategy to transform INL to deliver world-leading capabilities that will enable the Department of Energy to accomplish its mission. Land use planning is the overarching function within real property asset management that integrates the other functions of acquisition, recapitalization, maintenance, disposition, real property utilization, and long-term stewardship into a coordinated effort to ensure current and future mission needs are met. All land and facility use projects planned at the INL Site are considered through a formal planning process that supports the Ten-Year Site Plan. This Comprehensive Land Use and Environmental Stewardship Report describes that process. The land use planning process identifies the current condition of existing land and facility assets and the scope of constraints across INL and in the surrounding region. Current land use conditions are included in the Comprehensive Land Use and Environmental Stewardship Report and facility assets and scope of constraints are discussed in the Ten-Year Site Plan. This report also presents the past, present, and future uses of land at the INL Site that are considered during the planning process, as well as outlining the future of the INL Site for the 10, 30, and 100-year timeframes.

Changes in land requirements for food in the Philippines : A historical analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kastner, Thomas; Nonhebel, Sanderine

Land for food production is limited. We investigate how land demand for food develops as populations grow, diets change and agricultural practices become more intensive. The Philippines provide an excellent case: during the 20th century population grew tenfold implying similar increases in basic

Climate and land-use change in wetlands: A dedication

Science.gov (United States)

Middleton, Beth A.

2017-01-01

Future climate and land-use change may wreak havoc on wetlands, with the potential to erode their values as harbors for biota and providers of human services. Wetlands are important to protect, particularly because these provide a variety of ecosystem services including wildlife habitat, water purification, flood storage, and storm protection (Mitsch, Bernal, and Hernandez 2015). Without healthy wetlands, future generations may become increasingly less in harmony with the sustainability of the Earth. To this end, the thematic feature on climate and land-use change in wetlands explores the critical role of wetlands in the overall health and well-being of humans and our planet. Our special feature contributes to the understanding of the idea that the health of natural ecosystems and humans are linked and potentially stressed by climate change and land-use change (Horton and Lo 2015; McDonald 2015). In particular, this special issue considers the important role of wetlands in the environment, and how land-use and environmental change might affect them in the future.

Investigation of Vehicle Requirements and Options for Future Space Tourism

Science.gov (United States)

Olds, John R.

2001-01-01

The research in support of this grant was performed by the PI, Dr. John Olds, and graduate students in the Space Systems Design Lab (SSDL) at Georgia Tech over the period December 1999 to December 2000. The work was sponsored by Dr. Ted Talay, branch chief of the Vehicle Analysis Branch at the NASA Langley Research Center. The objective of the project was to examine the characteristics of future space tourism markets and to identify the vehicle requirements that are necessary to enable this emerging new business segment.

Future hydrological alterations in the Mekong Delta under the impact of water resources development, land subsidence and sea level rise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thanh Duc Dang

2018-02-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Depending on hydrological characteristics of each region (river-dominated, transitional or tidal, the influence of each potential driver may vary. The operation of proposed hydropower dams would change river-dominated upper floodplain’s water levels by 26 to 70% and −0.8 to −5.9% in the dry and wet season respectively, but the impact diminishes throughout the floodplains. In the wet season, the upper Vietnamese Delta changes from a transitional stage to a river-dominated stage, and localized water infrastructure development in the upper delta has the greatest effect on water levels in the region. Land subsidence combined with sea level rise could have the greatest future influence on flooding in the delta if current rates are extrapolated. Sustainable water management strategies are thus necessary to mitigate changes in the floodplains and delta and increase resilience to sea level rise and land subsidence.

Energy and land use

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1981-12-01

This report addresses the land use impacts of past and future energy development and summarizes the major federal and state legislation which influences the potential land use impacts of energy facilities and can thus influence the locations and timing of energy development. In addition, this report describes and presents the data which are used to measure, and in some cases, predict the potential conflicts between energy development and alternative uses of the nation's land resources. The topics section of this report is divided into three parts. The first part describes the myriad of federal, state and local legislation which have a direct or indirect impact upon the use of land for energy development. The second part addresses the potential land use impacts associated with the extraction, conversion and combustion of energy resources, as well as the disposal of wastes generated by these processes. The third part discusses the conflicts that might arise between agriculture and energy development as projected under a number of DOE mid-term (1990) energy supply and demand scenarios.

50 CFR 29.21-7 - What payment do we require for use and occupancy of national wildlife refuge lands?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false What payment do we require for use and occupancy of national wildlife refuge lands? 29.21-7 Section 29.21-7 Wildlife and Fisheries UNITED STATES FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR (CONTINUED) THE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE SYSTEM...

Oak Ridge reservation land-use plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bibb, W. R.; Hardin, T. H.; Hawkins, C. C.; Johnson, W. A.; Peitzsch, F. C.; Scott, T. H.; Theisen, M. R.; Tuck, S. C.

1980-03-01

This study establishes a basis for long-range land-use planning to accommodate both present and projected DOE program requirements in Oak Ridge. In addition to technological requirements, this land-use plan incorporates in-depth ecological concepts that recognize multiple uses of land as a viable option. Neither environmental research nor technological operations need to be mutually exclusive in all instances. Unique biological areas, as well as rare and endangered species, need to be protected, and human and environmental health and safety must be maintained. The plan is based on the concept that the primary use of DOE land resources must be to implement the overall DOE mission in Oak Ridge. This document, along with the base map and overlay maps, provides a reasonably detailed description of the DOE Oak Ridge land resources and of the current and potential uses of the land. A description of the land characteristics, including geomorphology, agricultural productivity and soils, water courses, vegetation, and terrestrial and aquatic animal habitats, is presented to serve as a resource document. Essentially all DOE land in the Oak Ridge area is being fully used for ongoing DOE programs or has been set aside as protected areas.

Section XI ASME B and PV CODE, future trends, nondestructive examination requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cowfer, C.D.

1984-01-01

Service Induced Flaws such as intergranular stress corrosion cracking, Round Robin Programs like PISC II, and related developments in UT methodology and signal processing the past one to two years will have major impact on the Code and future NDE requirements. The performance of NDE has become a high exposure item which demands high reliability and accuracy; terms generally not used with field NDE in the past. The trend is out of ''cookbook'' requirements and into performance demonstration for personnel, procedures and equipment. This paper highlights the current major transition in the Code regarding NDE performance from the viewpoint of the author's involvement

Historical Changes of Land Tenure and Land Use Rights in a Local Community: A Case Study in Lao PDR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saykham Boutthavong

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Land-titling programs, land and forest allocation programs, and projects on state-allocated land for development and investment in Laos have been key drivers of change in land tenure. These have triggered major shifts in land use rights, from customary, to temporary, and then to permanent land use rights. This article explores how government programs to grant land use rights to individual households have affected the way people have been able to acquire and secure land tenure. For our case study, we selected the village of Napo, the target of many land tenure changes in the past four decades. We collected data from district offices, group discussions with village organizations, and interviews with selected households. The study shows how land use rights shifted over time and reveals that households obtained most of their agricultural land and forestland through a claim process. Original households were mainly land claimers, while migrants were land buyers. The process of formalization and allocation of tenure triggered inequality among households. Attention is needed in future land governance and tenure reforms in order to safeguard the land use rights of local people in an equitable manner.

Future probabilities of coastal floods in Finland

Science.gov (United States)

Pellikka, Havu; Leijala, Ulpu; Johansson, Milla M.; Leinonen, Katri; Kahma, Kimmo K.

2018-04-01

Coastal planning requires detailed knowledge of future flooding risks, and effective planning must consider both short-term sea level variations and the long-term trend. We calculate distributions that combine short- and long-term effects to provide estimates of flood probabilities in 2050 and 2100 on the Finnish coast in the Baltic Sea. Our distributions of short-term sea level variations are based on 46 years (1971-2016) of observations from the 13 Finnish tide gauges. The long-term scenarios of mean sea level combine postglacial land uplift, regionally adjusted scenarios of global sea level rise, and the effect of changes in the wind climate. The results predict that flooding risks will clearly increase by 2100 in the Gulf of Finland and the Bothnian Sea, while only a small increase or no change compared to present-day conditions is expected in the Bothnian Bay, where the land uplift is stronger.

Sustainable land use and renewable materials. Options for sustainable land use and resource protection strategies considering in particular a sustainable supply with renewable raw materials; Nachhaltige Flaechennutzung und nachwachsende Rohstoffe. Optionen einer nachhaltigen Flaechennutzung und Ressourcenschutzstrategien unter besonderer Beruecksichtigung der nachhaltigen Versorgung mit nachwachsenden Rohstoffen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bringezu, Stefan; Schuetz, Helmut; Schepelmann, Philipp [Wuppertal Inst. fuer Klima, Umwelt, Energie (DE). Forschungsgruppe 3: Stoffstroeme und Ressourcenmanagement] (and others)

2009-10-15

This report highlights perspectives and options for action in order to promote sustainable land use considering resource of protection and supply with renewable raw materials. Land use within Germany is described as well as the global land use Germany based on its domestic consumption of products from agriculture and forestry. In terms of sustainable development, a long-lasting environmentally sound land use must be enabled which supports the required supply of renewable raw materials for energetic and non-energetic use while not endangering the future food supply of the growing world population. The Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy (WI), together with the Fraunhofer Institute for Environmental, Safety and Energy Technology (UMSICHT) in Oberhausen and the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research Heidelberg (IFEU), have for the first time with this study performed a comprehensive global land use balance for the consumption of food and non-food biomass in Germany, and have calculated in particular those greenhouse gas emissions which result from land use changes. In order not to endanger the climate and resource policy targets of the German government corrective measures for the implementation of policy targets for biomass use are needed. Existing targets for envisaged, enacted and promoted use of energy plants and biofuels should be reviewed. Existing legal biofuel quotas should by no means be increased. Furthermore, the national biofuels target for 2020 of a 12- 15% biofuels share of fuel consumption should be withdrawn, especially as this would send a clear international message. Such a target in the future would only be justifiable if the total amount of fuel consumed would decrease drastically (i.e. by more than half) as compared with today. Thereby the respective amount of biofuels required in the future would also decrease. The bonus for renewable raw materials of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) should be critically

Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan R.; Sayler, Kristi L.

2015-01-01

Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

Digital Cadastres Facilitating Land Information Management

African Journals Online (AJOL)

sekuru

materials required for the manufacturing industry which drives the economy are ... for land information as a basis for managing and exploiting the land ... The LADM was accepted in 2012 as an international standard for land administration. Most developing nations are embarking on automation projects with a notion to ...

MODIS-derived atmospheric water vapor (AWV) content and its correlation to land use and land cover in Northeast China

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Kaishan; Wu, Junjie; Li, Lin; Wang, Zongming; Lu, Dongmei; Du, Jia; Zhang, Bai

2010-08-01

Atmospheric water vapor (AWV) content is closely related to precipitation that in turn has effects on the productivity of agricultural, forestry and range land. MODIS images have been used for AWV retrieval, and the method uses either two (0.841-0.876 μm and 0.915-0.965 μm) or three (0.841-0.876, 0.915-0.965 and 1.230-0-1.250 μm) MODIS channel ratios. We applied both methods to the MODIS data over Northeast China acquired from June to August, 2008 to retrieve AWV content, and the results were validated on ground observed data from 10 radio sonde stations characterized by various land cover. The bulk results indicate that the two-channel ratio outperformed the three-channel ratio based on the coefficient of determination R2 = 0.81 vs. 0.78. The validation results for individual land cover types also support this observation with R2 = 0.92 vs. 0.84 for woodland, 0.82 vs. 0.79 for cropland, 0.90 vs. 0.86 for grassland and 0.673 vs. 0.669 for urban areas. The spatial distribution of AWV derived using the two-channel ratio method was correlated to land-use classification data, and a high correlation was evident when other conditions were similar. With the exception of dry cropland, the amount of average water vapor content over different land use types demonstrates a consistent order: water-body > paddy-field > woodland > grassland > barren for the analyzed multi-temporal MODIS data. This order partially matches the evapotranspiration pattern of underlying surface, and future work is required for analyzing the association of the landscape pattern with AWV in the region.

MODERN LAND MANAGEMENT UKRAINE: CONCEPT, ESSENCE, TRENDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tretiak Anton

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Modern transformations prevailing inUkrainein the sphere of land relations and the use and protection of land are critical and require changes without final rozrushennya existing system of land management, the reform and a new understanding of the nature and forms of modern land management. Given that land management is a fundamental mechanism for land management and land use, in our opinion its reform and development should be seen in close relationship with the development of management system. Problems in the theory of management of land resources, especially its main land managers in different socio-economic communities is extremely important because the efficiency of its operation is not the most important in the economic relations of land ownership. However, for more than 25 years the implementation of land reform inUkrainegovernment has not decided as of model management and land management systems. Functioning system of land management and land use inUkraineon a "top - down" is derived from the authoritarian system of the state, theSoviet Unionand there is not a market. Similarly unchanged system of land management, which is why the task was made research its current state for further scientific studies integrated management system. It is studied modern land management in Ukraine and proved the concept and essence of contemporary land in Ukraine as a multifunctional system, which requires besides the concepts of "social land management", "economy of land", "legal land management", "technical land management", such as "environmental land management", " innovation in land management", "cadastral land management", "ecological and economic land management". A new concept of land as the overall socio-economic, environmental measures and organizational, legal and technical actions aimed at regulating land relations and rational organization of the territory of the administrative-territorial entities, entities committed under the influence of

Geospatial Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Transitions from 1986–2014 in a Peri-Urban Ghana

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Divine Odame Appiah

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Recently, peri-urbanisation has led to the transformation of the rural landscape, changing rural land uses into peri-urban land uses, under varying driving factors. This paper analyzes the dynamic transitions among identified land use and land cover (LULC types in the Bosomtwe district of Ghana, from 1986 to 2014. An integrated approach of geo-information tools of satellite remote sensing in Earth Resource Data Analysis System (ERDAS Imagine 13 and ArcMap 10.2 Geographic Information System (GIS, with Markov chain analytical techniques were used to examine the combined forest land cover transitions, relative to build-up, recent fallows and grasslands and projected possible factors influencing the transitions under business as usual and unusual situations. Statistical analyses of the classified Landsat TM, ETM+ and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager and Thermal Infrared Sensor (OLI/TIS indicated that over the period of 24 years, the Bosomtwe district has undergone a series of land use conversions with remarkable forest losses especially between 2002 and 2010. In 2010 dense forest cover was degraded to low forest by 4040 ha indicating 0.40% transition probability in the future. There was a remarkable increase of built-up/bare and concrete area with a 380% increment in the 1986–2002 transition periods. The application of the Markov futuristic land use dynamics by the years 2018 and 2028, projected from the 2014 LULC indicated a future steady decline in the area coverage of the dense forest to low forest category. This is currently being driven (as at the 2017 LULC trends, by the combined effects of increasing build up bare and concrete surface land uses as well as the expanding recent fallows and grassland. The paper concluded that the health of the ecosystem and biodiversity of the lake Bosomtwe need to be sustainably managed by the Bosomtwe district assembly.

Design and implementation of land reservation system

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Yurong; Gao, Qingqiang

2009-10-01

Land reservation is defined as a land management policy for insuring the government to control primary land market. It requires the government to obtain the land first, according to plan, by purchase, confiscation and exchanging, and then exploit and consolidate the land for reservation. Underlying this policy, it is possible for the government to satisfy and manipulate the needs of land for urban development. The author designs and develops "Land Reservation System for Eastern Lake Development District" (LRSELDD), which deals with the realistic land requirement problems in Wuhan Eastern Lake Development Districts. The LRSELDD utilizes modern technologies and solutions of computer science and GIS to process multiple source data related with land. Based on experiments on the system, this paper will first analyze workflow land reservation system and design the system structure based on its principles, then illustrate the approach of organization and management of spatial data, describe the system functions according to the characteristics of land reservation and consolidation finally. The system is running to serve for current work in Eastern Lake Development Districts. It is able to scientifically manage both current and planning land information, as well as the information about land supplying. We use the LRSELDD in our routine work, and with such information, decisions on land confiscation and allocation will be made wisely and scientifically.

Distributed Control and Management of Renewable Electric Energy Resources for Future Grid Requirements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mokhtari, Ghassem; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Nourbakhsh, Ghavameddin

2016-01-01

strategy is a promising approach to manage and utilise the resources in future distribution networks to effectively deal with grid electric quality issues and requirements. Jointly, utility and customers the owners of the resources in the network are considered as part of a practical coordination strategy......It is anticipated that both medium- and low-voltage distribution networks will include high level of distributed renewable energy resources, in the future. The high penetration of these resources inevitably can introduce various power quality issues, including; overvoltage and overloading....... This book chapter provides the current research state of the art concepts and techniques in dealing with these potential issues. The methods provided in this chapter are based on distributed control approach, tailored and suitable particularly for the future distribution composition. The distributed control...

Land subsidence and earth fissures in south-central and southern Arizona, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Conway, Brian D.

2016-05-01

Land subsidence due to groundwater overdraft has been an ongoing problem in south-central and southern Arizona (USA) since the 1940s. The first earth fissure attributed to excessive groundwater withdrawal was discovered in the early 1950s near Picacho. In some areas of the state, groundwater-level declines of more than 150 m have resulted in extensive land subsidence and earth fissuring. Land subsidence in excess of 5.7 m has been documented in both western metropolitan Phoenix and Eloy. The Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) has been monitoring land subsidence since 2002 using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and since 1998 using a global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The ADWR InSAR program has identified more than 25 individual land subsidence features that cover an area of more than 7,300 km2. Using InSAR data in conjunction with groundwater-level datasets, ADWR is able to monitor land subsidence areas as well as identify areas that may require additional monitoring. One area of particular concern is the Willcox groundwater basin in southeastern Arizona, which is the focus of this paper. The area is experiencing rapid groundwater declines, as much as 32.1 m during 2005-2014 (the largest land subsidence rate in Arizona State—up to 12 cm/year), and a large number of earth fissures. The declining groundwater levels in Arizona are a challenge for both future groundwater availability and mitigating land subsidence associated with these declines. ADWR's InSAR program will continue to be a critical tool for monitoring land subsidence due to excessive groundwater withdrawal.

Navigating trade-offs in land-use planning: integrating human well-being into objective setting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vanessa M. Adams

2014-12-01

Full Text Available There is an increasing demand for development of natural resources, which can be accompanied by environmental degradation. Planning for multiple land uses requires navigating trade-offs between social, economic, and environmental outcomes arising from different possible futures. To explore these trade-offs, we use the Daly River catchment, in Australia's Northern Territory, as a case study. The catchment contains areas of priority for both conservation and development. In response to the challenge of navigating the required trade-offs, the Daly River Management Advisory Committee (DRMAC initiated a land-use plan for the region. Both development and conservation of natural resources in the catchment will affect human well-being and the long-term provisioning of ecosystem services in diverse ways. To understand some of these impacts, an innovative engagement process was designed to elicit the relative importance of key factors to residents' well-being. The process identified 19 well-being factors grouped into four domains: biodiversity, socio-cultural, recreational, and commercial. Overall, the highest-ranked well-being factors were in the social-cultural and biodiversity domains while commercial values were ranked the least important. Respondents reported low satisfaction with commercial factors as well, noting concerns over environmental impacts from existing developments and sustainability of future developments. We identified differences in the reported importance values for several types of stakeholders, most notably between indigenous respondents and those employed in the agricultural sectors. Indigenous respondents placed greater importance on biodiversity and socio-cultural factors. Agricultural respondents placed greater importance on commercial factors. The outcomes of our engagement were integrated into DRMAC's process of objective-setting to ensure that objectives for each domain were included in land-use planning. Our results can also

Assessing the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Global Water Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Batra, N.; Yang, Y. E.; Choi, H. I.; Islam, A.; Charlotte, D. F.; Cai, X.; Kumar, P.

2007-12-01

Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) significantly modify the hydrological regime of the watersheds, affecting water resources and environment from regional to global scale. This study seeks to advance and integrate water and energy cycle observation, scientific understanding, and human impacts to assess future water availability. To achieve the research objective, we integrate and interpret past and current space based and in situ observations into a global hydrologic model (GHM). GHM is developed with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution, physical complexity, hydrologic theory and processes to quantify the impact of LULCC on physical variables: surface runoff, subsurface flow, groundwater, infiltration, ET, soil moisture, etc. Coupled with the common land model (CLM), a 3-dimensional volume averaged soil-moisture transport (VAST) model is expanded to incorporate the lateral flow and subgrid heterogeneity. The model consists of 11 soil-hydrology layers to predict lateral as well as vertical moisture flux transport based on Richard's equations. The primary surface boundary conditions (SBCs) include surface elevation and its derivatives, land cover category, sand and clay fraction profiles, bedrock depth and fractional vegetation cover. A consistent global GIS-based dataset is constructed for the SBCs of the model from existing observational datasets comprising of various resolutions, map projections and data formats. Global ECMWF data at 6-hour time steps for the period 1971 through 2000 is processed to get the forcing data which includes incoming longwave and shortwave radiation, precipitation, air temperature, pressure, wind components, boundary layer height and specific humidity. Land use land cover data, generated using IPCC scenarios for every 10 years from 2000 to 2100 is used for future assessment on water resources. Alterations due to LULCC on surface water balance components: ET, groundwater recharge and runoff are then addressed in the study. Land

Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies

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Yu Zhang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Land use and land cover change have received considerable attention from global researchers in recent decades. The conflicts between different development strategies for land uses have become a problem that urgently needs to be solved, especially in those regions with a fragile ecological environment. The development of scenario simulations is essential in order to highlight possible alternative pathways for the future under the backgrounds of urbanization, economic growth and ecological protection. This study simulated land use changes for Tekes in 2020 with the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S model under a ‘business as usual’ scenario, cropland protection scenario, ecological security scenario, and artificial modification scenario. The results indicated that the spatial patterns of the land use types were explained well by the environment variables, and the selected models had a satisfactory accuracy in this study. The requirements and the patterns were quite different owing to the variation of the major objectives of the four scenarios. In addition to the constraint rules of the land use transformation, the hot point for land use change was its spatial coherency. Areas near to an existing land use type were more likely to transform to that type than those farther away. The increased cropland and urban land were mainly located around the current cropland and urban land while forests and grassland were more likely to occur in places with flat terrain and good hydrological conditions. The results could contribute to better insight into the relationships between land use changes and their driving factors and provide a scientific basis for regional management strategies and sustainable land use development.

Carrying capacity of U.S. agricultural land: Ten diet scenarios

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Christian J. Peters

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Strategies for environmental sustainability and global food security must account for dietary change. Using a biophysical simulation model we calculated human carrying capacity under ten diet scenarios. The scenarios included two reference diets based on actual consumption and eight “Healthy Diet” scenarios that complied with nutritional recommendations but varied in the level of meat content. We considered the U.S. agricultural land base and accounted for losses, processing conversions, livestock feed needs, suitability of land for crops or grazing, and land productivity. Annual per capita land requirements ranged from 0.13 to 1.08 ha person-1 year-1 across the ten diet scenarios. Carrying capacity varied from 402 to 807 million persons; 1.3 to 2.6 times the 2010 U.S. population. Carrying capacity was generally higher for scenarios with less meat and highest for the lacto-vegetarian diet. However, the carrying capacity of the vegan diet was lower than two of the healthy omnivore diet scenarios. Sensitivity analysis showed that carrying capacity estimates were highly influenced by starting assumptions about the proportion of cropland available for cultivated cropping. Population level dietary change can contribute substantially to meeting future food needs, though ongoing agricultural research and sustainable management practices are still needed to assure sufficient production levels.

Land-use change and global climate policies; Usage des terres et politiques climatiques globales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gitz, V

2004-03-15

This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO{sub 2}. Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M.; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

2016-09-01

Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

Projecting optimal land-use and -management strategies under population growth and climate change using a coupled ecosystem & land use model framework

Science.gov (United States)

Rabin, Sam; Alexander, Peter; Anthoni, Peter; Henry, Roslyn; Huntingford, Chris; Pugh, Thomas; Rounsevell, Mark; Arneth, Almut

2017-04-01

A major question facing humanity is how well agricultural production systems will be able to feed the world in a future of rapid climate change, population growth, and demand shifts—all while minimizing our impact on the natural world. Global modeling has frequently been used to investigate certain aspects of this question, but in order to properly address the challenge, no one part of the human-environmental system can be assessed in isolation. It is especially critical that the effect on agricultural yields of changing temperature and precipitation regimes (including seasonal timing and frequency and intensity of extreme events), as well as rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, be taken into account when planning for future food security. Coupled modeling efforts, where changes in various parts of the Earth system are allowed to feed back onto one another, represent a powerful strategy in this regard. This presentation describes the structure and initial results of an effort to couple a biologically-representative vegetation and crop production simulator, LPJ-GUESS, with the climate emulator IMOGEN and the land-use model PLUMv2. With IMOGEN providing detailed future weather simulations, LPJ-GUESS simulates natural vegetation as well as cropland and pasture/rangeland; the simulated exchange of greenhouse gases between the land and atmosphere feeds back into IMOGEN's predictions. LPJ-GUESS also produces potential vegetation yields for irrigated vs. rainfed crops under three levels of nitrogen fertilizer addition. PLUMv2 combines these potential yields with endogenous demand and agricultural commodity price to calculate an optimal set of land use distributions and management strategies across the world for the next five years of simulation, based on socio-economic scenario data. These land uses are then fed back into LPJ-GUESS, and the cycle of climate, greenhouse gas emissions, crop yields, and land-use change continues. The globally gridded nature of the

Understanding the life cycle surface land requirements of natural gas-fired electricity

Science.gov (United States)

Jordaan, Sarah M.; Heath, Garvin A.; Macknick, Jordan; Bush, Brian W.; Mohammadi, Ehsan; Ben-Horin, Dan; Urrea, Victoria; Marceau, Danielle

2017-10-01

The surface land use of fossil fuel acquisition and utilization has not been well characterized, inhibiting consistent comparisons of different electricity generation technologies. Here we present a method for robust estimation of the life cycle land use of electricity generated from natural gas through a case study that includes inventories of infrastructure, satellite imagery and well-level production. Approximately 500 sites in the Barnett Shale of Texas were sampled across five life cycle stages (production, gathering, processing, transmission and power generation). Total land use (0.62 m2 MWh-1, 95% confidence intervals ±0.01 m2 MWh-1) was dominated by midstream infrastructure, particularly pipelines (74%). Our results were sensitive to power plant heat rate (85-190% of the base case), facility lifetime (89-169%), number of wells per site (16-100%), well lifetime (92-154%) and pipeline right of way (58-142%). When replicated for other gas-producing regions and different fuels, our approach offers a route to enable empirically grounded comparisons of the land footprint of energy choices.

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

Interactions between land use, climate and hydropower in Scotland

Science.gov (United States)

Sample, James

2015-04-01

To promote the transition towards a low carbon economy, the Scottish Government has adopted ambitious energy targets, including generating all electricity from renewable sources by 2020. To achieve this, continued investment will be required across a range of sustainable technologies. Hydropower has a long history in Scotland and the present-day operational capacity of ~1.5 GW makes a substantial contribution to the national energy budget. In addition, there remains potential for ~500 MW of further development, mostly in the form of small to medium size run-of-river schemes. Climate change is expected to lead to an intensification of the global hydrological cycle, leading to changes in both the magnitude and seasonality of river flows. There may also be indirect effects, such as changing land use, enhanced evapotranspiration rates and an increased demand for irrigation, all of which could affect the water available for energy generation. Preliminary assessments of hydropower commonly use flow duration curves (FDCs) to estimate the power generation potential at proposed new sites. In this study, we use spatially distributed modelling to generate daily and monthly FDCs on a 1 km by 1 km grid across Scotland, using a variety of future land use and climate change scenarios. Parameter-related uncertainty in the model has been constrained using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to derive posterior probability distributions for key model parameters. Our results give an indication of the sensitivity and vulnerability of Scotland's run-of-river hydropower resources to possible changes in climate and land use. The effects are spatially variable and the range of uncertainty is sometimes large, but consistent patterns do emerge. For example, many locations are predicted to experience enhanced seasonality, with significantly lower power generation potential in the summer months and greater potential during the autumn and winter. Some sites may require

Field of View Requirements for Carrier Landing Training

Science.gov (United States)

1980-06-01

descent is guided by the Fresnel Lens Optical Landing System,(FLOLS) which displays a vertically moveable center iight beam (the " meatball ") which...must be kept aligned with rows of stationary horizontal lights. When the aircraft is above or below the correct glideslope, the meatball is seen as above...or below the horizontal reference lights. If the pilot is viewing a centered meatball , and if the aircraft has the correct AOA, the tailhook will be

Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin

Science.gov (United States)

Tsarouchi, Gina; Buytaert, Wouter

2018-02-01

Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change might affect the hydrological response of the Upper Ganges river basin in northern India, which experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Three different sets of modelling experiments were run using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model (LSM) and covering the period 2000-2035: in the first set, only climate change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), whilst land use was held fixed at the year 2010. In the second set, only land-use change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by a time series of 15 future land-use pathways, based on Landsat satellite imagery and the Markov chain simulation, whilst the meteorological boundary conditions were held fixed at years 2000-2005. In the third set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as the CMIP5 model outputs were used in conjunction with the 15 future land-use pathways to force JULES. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030-2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land-cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow (Q5) is projected to increase by 63 % under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of

Land use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rickard, W.H.; Rogers, L.E.

1977-01-01

Justification for large land holdings at the Hanford Reservation has centered around a need for security and also as a buffer zone in the event of accidents. In recent years the importance of these large land holdings have become nationally recognized as highly desirable locations for ecological research concerning the function and structure of terrestrial ecosystems and as places to investigate the response of terrestrial ecosystems to long-term man-imposed environmental stresses. Carefully selected and protected land areas exist on the 110 square mile Arid Land Ecology Reserve (ALE) at Hanford. The projects described here provide supporting research for several applied projects that deal with environmental impact and land restoration. Information gained from this research has wide use and applicability to all kinds of energy technologies centered in the semi-arid shrub-steppe region of the northwestern United States. Ecological information reported includes: biotic characterization, including description of major habitats and endangered or threatened species; performances of native plant species, including determination of growth habits, nutrient requirements, and productivity; and, mineral cycling, including particularly the estimation of availability and behavior of airborne deposits to green plants

Prediction of Land Use Change Based on Markov and GM(1,1 Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SUN Yi-yang

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In order to explore the law of land use change in Laiwu City, Markov and GM(1,1 were respectively employed in the prediction of land use change in Laiwu from 2015 to 2050, after which the results were analyzed and discussed. The results showed that:(1The variational trends of all kinds of land use change predicted by the two models were consistent and the goodness of fit of the predictive value in corresponding years in the near future was high, illustrating that the predicted results in the near future were credible and the trend predicted in mid long term could be used as reference. (2The cultivated land would remanin almost no change from 2015 to 2020, and then gradually decreaseed in a small range from 2020 to 2050. The garden, the woodland, the grassland always reducing and the decreare range of the grassland was the largest. The urban village and industrial and mining land, the transportation land would be continuously increased and the range of urban village and industrial and mining land was the largest. The water and water conservancy facilities land and the other land would be always reduced in a very small range. It could be concluded that the results predicted by the two models in the near future were credible and could provide scientific basis for land use planning of Laiwu, while the method could provide reference for the prediction of land use change.

NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change (LCLUC): an interdisciplinary research program.

Science.gov (United States)

Justice, Chris; Gutman, Garik; Vadrevu, Krishna Prasad

2015-01-15

Understanding Land Cover/Land Use Change (LCLUC) in diverse regions of the world and at varied spatial scales is one of the important challenges in global change research. In this article, we provide a brief overview of the NASA LCLUC program, its focus areas, and the importance of satellite remote sensing observations in LCLUC research including future directions. The LCLUC Program was designed to be a cross-cutting theme within NASA's Earth Science program. The program aims to develop and use remote sensing technologies to improve understanding of human interactions with the environment. Since 1997, the NASA LCLUC program has supported nearly 280 research projects on diverse topics such as forest loss and carbon, urban expansion, land abandonment, wetland loss, agricultural land use change and land use change in mountain systems. The NASA LCLUC program emphasizes studies where land-use changes are rapid or where there are significant regional or global LCLUC implications. Over a period of years, the LCLUC program has contributed to large regional science programs such as Land Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA), the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), and the Monsoon Area Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS). The primary emphasis of the program will remain on using remote sensing datasets for LCLUC research. The program will continue to emphasize integration of physical and social sciences to address regional to global scale issues of LCLUC for the benefit of society. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Land Use Manager Application Ensures Protectiveness Following Remediation on the Oak Ridge Reservation - 13355

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garland, Sid; Brown, Sally; Sims, Lynn [Restoration Services, Inc., P.O. Box 4699, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831 (United States); Darby, Jason [U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Environmental Management, Oak Ridge Site (United States)

2013-07-01

for evaluation in the required Remediation Effectiveness Report, and the automated Land Use Manager collects, maintains, tracks, notifies, monitors, and manages the information necessary to perform this evaluation. Land Use Manager tracks site information including type of contamination, regulatory requirements, locates land use controls; provides information on inspections, certification, and reporting; and provides reports. Most data access features, e.g., view, print, query, and download, are available to all users; however, data input, updating, and editing are restricted to the personnel directly responsible for monitoring and inspection. The Land Use Manager application was developed for the Department of Energy Oak Ridge Office by URS - CH2M Oak Ridge LLC, Restoration Services Incorporated, and MIJARA Corporation to meet the specific needs of long-term stewardship tracking on the Oak Ridge Reservation. The successful implementation of long-term stewardship enables the future government and private activities being planned on the Oak Ridge Reservation to proceed. (authors)

Land Use Manager Application Ensures Protectiveness Following Remediation on the Oak Ridge Reservation - 13355

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garland, Sid; Brown, Sally; Sims, Lynn; Darby, Jason

2013-01-01

evaluation in the required Remediation Effectiveness Report, and the automated Land Use Manager collects, maintains, tracks, notifies, monitors, and manages the information necessary to perform this evaluation. Land Use Manager tracks site information including type of contamination, regulatory requirements, locates land use controls; provides information on inspections, certification, and reporting; and provides reports. Most data access features, e.g., view, print, query, and download, are available to all users; however, data input, updating, and editing are restricted to the personnel directly responsible for monitoring and inspection. The Land Use Manager application was developed for the Department of Energy Oak Ridge Office by URS - CH2M Oak Ridge LLC, Restoration Services Incorporated, and MIJARA Corporation to meet the specific needs of long-term stewardship tracking on the Oak Ridge Reservation. The successful implementation of long-term stewardship enables the future government and private activities being planned on the Oak Ridge Reservation to proceed. (authors)

Theories and Diagnostic Methods of Land Use Conflicts

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yongfang; YANG; Lianqi; ZHU

2013-01-01

With social and economic development, the land resources are becoming increasingly scarce, and the land use conflicts are getting more frequent, deeper, more diversified and more severe. Besides, the factors that induce land use conflicts are more and more complicated. Therefore, the key to solve many difficult problems in regional sustainable land use lies in the research of land use conflicts, scientific evaluation of the intensity of regional land use conflicts, and the further reveal of external forms as well as intrinsic mechanisms of land use conflicts. Based on the review of both domestic and foreign literatures, this paper has completed the theoretical framework as well as the contents of land use conflicts research, established the diagnostic models and methods of land use conflicts intensity and proposed the key research areas of future studies. The purpose is to promote the evolution of spatial structure of China’s land resources to the positive direction and achieve integrated and coordinated management of land use through improving spatial allocation efficiency of land factors and buffering the pressure on land resources.

Land use/land cover in Swisher County and Deaf Smith County locations, Palo Duro Basin, Texas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-12-01

Agriculture is the major land use/land cover in the Swisher and Deaf Smith County locations. Most of the agricultural land is irrigated. Furrow, center pivot, and lateral-wheel irrigation systems are in common use. Rangeland is the second most abundant land use/land cover; it is typically associated with stream valleys and playas. The rangeland supports cattle, which are an important source of income. The main urban areas in or near the locations are Tulia and Happy, in Swisher County, and Hereford and Vega, in Deaf Smith County. Most of the land within the locations is privately owned - corporate and government ownership is extremely limited - and large portions are currently under lease for oil exploration. County and regional agencies have no authority to regulate land-use patterns in the locations, although the Panhandle Regional Planning Commission can provide guidance to local jurisdictions. Land use within the corporate limits and extraterritorial jurisdictions of Tulia and Hereford is controlled by zoning ordinances and subdivision regulations. According to projections for the locations, agriculture will remain the major land use in the foreseeable future. Dryland farming and rangeland will become more prevalent as irrigation costs increase and marginal areas are taken out of production

Monitoring and Modeling of Spatiotemporal Urban Expansion and Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Using Integrated Markov Chain Cellular Automata Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bhagawat Rimal

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Spatial–temporal analysis of land-use/land-cover (LULC change as well as the monitoring and modeling of urban expansion are essential for the planning and management of urban environments. Such environments reflect the economic conditions and quality of life of the individual country. Urbanization is generally influenced by national laws, plans and policies and by power, politics and poor governance in many less-developed countries. Remote sensing tools play a vital role in monitoring LULC change and measuring the rate of urbanization at both the local and global levels. The current study evaluated the LULC changes and urban expansion of Jhapa district of Nepal. The spatial–temporal dynamics of LULC were identified using six time-series atmospherically-corrected surface reflectance Landsat images from 1989 to 2016. A hybrid cellular automata Markov chain (CA–Markov model was used to simulate future urbanization by 2026 and 2036. The analysis shows that the urban area has increased markedly and is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the future, whereas the area for agriculture has decreased. Meanwhile, forest and shrub areas have remained almost constant. Seasonal rainfall and flooding routinely cause predictable transformation of sand, water bodies and cultivated land from one type to another. The results suggest that the use of Landsat time-series archive images and the CA–Markov model are the best options for long-term spatiotemporal analysis and achieving an acceptable level of prediction accuracy. Furthermore, understanding the relationship between the spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization and LULC change and simulating future landscape change is essential, as they are closely interlinked. These scientific findings of past, present and future land-cover scenarios of the study area will assist planners/decision-makers to formulate sustainable urban development and environmental protection plans and will remain a scientific asset

Agricultural land management options following large-scale environmental contamination - evaluation for Fukushima affected agricultural land

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vandenhove, Hildegarde

2013-01-01

The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant has raised questions about the accumulation of radionuclides in soils, the transfer in the food chain and the possibility of continued restricted future land use. This paper summarizes what is generally understood about the application of agricultural countermeasures as a land management option to reduce the radionuclides transfer in the food chain and to facilitate the return of potentially affected soils to agricultural practices in areas impacted by a nuclear accident. (authors)

Agricultural land management options following large-scale environmental contamination - evaluation for Fukushima affected agricultural land

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vandenhove, Hildegarde [Biosphere Impact Studies, Belgian Nuclear Research Center SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium)

2013-07-01

The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant has raised questions about the accumulation of radionuclides in soils, the transfer in the food chain and the possibility of continued restricted future land use. This paper summarizes what is generally understood about the application of agricultural countermeasures as a land management option to reduce the radionuclides transfer in the food chain and to facilitate the return of potentially affected soils to agricultural practices in areas impacted by a nuclear accident. (authors)

Implementing land use change models in the developing world

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Le Roux, Alize

2013-07-01

Full Text Available recently adapted land use change models (Dyna-Clue and UrbanSIM) that have been successfully adapted to simulate future land use change policies in the various metro's across South-Africa. The presentation will focus on how these technologies together...

Sustainability for the Americas Initiative: Land Design Institute, Ball State University

Science.gov (United States)

J. L. Motloch; Pedro Pacheco; Eloy F. Jr. Casagrande

2006-01-01

The Ball State University Land Design Institute (LDI) pursues ecologically and culturally sustainable land design through education, research, outreach, and demonstration. LDI seeks to lead communities (local, regional, global) to sustainable futures. It connects communities and sustainability experts to optimize education about land management, planning, and design...

How to Quantify Human-environment Interactions in the Past: A Global Historical Land Use Data Set for the Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Klein Goldewijk, K.

2015-12-01

Land use plays an important role in the climate system. Many ecosystem processes are directly or indirectly climate driven, and together with human driven land use changes, they determine how the land surface will evolve through time. To assess the effects of land cover changes on the climate system, models are required which are capable of simulating interactions between the involved components of the Earth system. Since driving forces for global environmental change differ among regions, a geographically (spatially) explicit modeling approach is called for, so that it can be incorporated in global and regional (climate and/or biophysical) change models in order to enhance our understanding of the underlying processes and thus improving future projections.Some researchers suggest that mankind has shifted from living in the Holocene (~emergence of agriculture) into the Anthropocene (~humans capable of changing the Earth' atmosphere) since the start of the Industrial Revolution. But in the light of the sheer size and magnitude of some historical land use changes (e.g. the Black Plague in the 14th century and the aftermath of the Colombian Exchange in the 16th century), some believe that this point might have occurred earlier in time. There are still many uncertainties and gaps in our knowledge about the importance of land use (change) in the global biogeochemical cycle, and it is crucial that researchers from other disciplines are involved in decreasing the uncertainties.Thus, integrated records of the co-evolving human-environment system over millennia are needed to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the present and for forecasting the future. This requires the major task of assembling and integrating regional and global historical, archaeological, and paleo-environmental records. Humans cannot predict the future. Here I present a tool for such long term global change studies; it is the latest update (v 3.2) of the History Database of the Global

Research Progress of Global Land Domain Service Computing:Take GlobeLand 30 as an Example

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CHEN Jun

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Combining service-computing technology with domain requirements is one of the important development directions of geographic information under Internet+, which provides highly efficient technical means for information sharing and collaborative services. Using GlobeLand 30 as an example, this paper analyzes the basic problems of integrating land cover information processing and service computing, introduces the latest research progress in domain service modeling, online computing method and dynamic service technology, and the GlobeLand 30 information service platform. The paper also discusses the further development directions of GlobeLand 30 domain service computing.

Lunar Landing Trajectory Design for Onboard Hazard Detection and Avoidance

Science.gov (United States)

Paschall, Steve; Brady, Tye; Sostaric, Ron

2009-01-01

The Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) Project is developing the software and hardware technology needed to support a safe and precise landing for the next generation of lunar missions. ALHAT provides this capability through terrain-relative navigation measurements to enhance global-scale precision, an onboard hazard detection system to select safe landing locations, and an Autonomous Guidance, Navigation, and Control (AGNC) capability to process these measurements and safely direct the vehicle to a landing location. This paper focuses on the key trajectory design issues relevant to providing an onboard Hazard Detection and Avoidance (HDA) capability for the lander. Hazard detection can be accomplished by the crew visually scanning the terrain through a window, a sensor system imaging the terrain, or some combination of both. For ALHAT, this hazard detection activity is provided by a sensor system, which either augments the crew s perception or entirely replaces the crew in the case of a robotic landing. Detecting hazards influences the trajectory design by requiring the proper perspective, range to the landing site, and sufficient time to view the terrain. Following this, the trajectory design must provide additional time to process this information and make a decision about where to safely land. During the final part of the HDA process, the trajectory design must provide sufficient margin to enable a hazard avoidance maneuver. In order to demonstrate the effects of these constraints on the landing trajectory, a tradespace of trajectory designs was created for the initial ALHAT Design Analysis Cycle (ALDAC-1) and each case evaluated with these HDA constraints active. The ALHAT analysis process, described in this paper, narrows down this tradespace and subsequently better defines the trajectory design needed to support onboard HDA. Future ALDACs will enhance this trajectory design by balancing these issues and others in an overall system

Incorporating JULES into NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and Investigations of Land-Atmosphere Coupling

Science.gov (United States)

Santanello, Joseph

2011-01-01

NASA's Land Information System (LIS; lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling and data assimilation framework developed over the past decade with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. LIS features a high performance and flexible design, and operates on an ensemble of land surface models for extension over user-specified regional or global domains. The extensible interfaces of LIS allow the incorporation of new domains, land surface models (LSMs), land surface parameters, meteorological inputs, data assimilation and optimization algorithms. In addition, LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation and uncertainty estimation, and has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. A visiting fellowship is currently underway to implement JULES into LIS and to undertake some fundamental science on the feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. An overview of the LIS system, features, and sample results will be presented in an effort to engage the community in the potential advantages of LIS-JULES for a range of applications. Ongoing efforts to develop a framework for diagnosing land-atmosphere coupling will also be presented using the suite of LSM and PBL schemes available in LIS and WRF along with observations from the U. S .. Southern Great Plains. This methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which will serve as a testbed for future experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

2014-12-01

Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

Monitoring land use/land cover changes using CORINE land cover data: a case study of Silivri coastal zone in Metropolitan Istanbul.

Science.gov (United States)

Yilmaz, Rüya

2010-06-01

The objective of the present study was to assess changes in land use/land cover patterns in the coastal town of Silivri, a part of greater Istanbul administratively. In the assessment, remotely sensed data, in the form of satellite images, and geographic information systems were used. Types of land use/land cover were designated as the percentage of the total area studied. Results calculated from the satellite data for land cover classification were compared successfully with the database Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE). This served as a reference to appraise the reliability of the study presented here. The CORINE Program was established by the European Commission to create a harmonized Geographical Information System on the state of the environment in the European Community. Unplanned urbanization is causing land use changes mainly in developing countries such as Turkey. This situation in Turkey is frequently observed in the city of Istanbul. There are only a few studies of land use-land cover changes which provide an integrated assessment of the biophysical and societal causes and consequences of environmental degradation in Istanbul. The research area comprised greater Silivri Town which is situated by the coast of Marmara Sea, and it is located approximately 60 km west of Istanbul. The city of Istanbul is one of the largest metropolises in Europe with ca. 15 million inhabitants. Additionally, greater Silivri is located near the terminal point of the state highway connecting Istanbul with Europe. Measuring of changes occurring in land use would help control future planning of settlements; hence, it is of importance for the Greater Silivri and Silivri Town. Following our evaluations, coastal zone of Silivri was classified into the land use groups of artificial surfaces agricultural areas and forests and seminatural areas with 47.1%, 12.66%, and 22.62%, respectively.

Allegheny County Municipal Land Use Ordinances

Data.gov (United States)

Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — Many municipalities have their own land use ordinances and establish standards and requirements for land use and development in that municipality. This dataset is...

Future Deltas Utrecht University research focus area: towards sustainable management of sinking deltas

Science.gov (United States)

Stouthamer, E.; van Asselen, S.

2015-11-01

Deltas are increasingly under pressure from human impact and climate change. To deal with these pressures that threat future delta functioning, we need to understand interactions between physical, biological, chemical and social processes in deltas. This requires an integrated approach, in which knowledge on natural system functioning is combined with knowledge on spatial planning, land and water governance and legislative frameworks. In the research focus area Future Deltas of Utrecht University an interdisciplinary team from different research groups therefore works together. This allows developing integrated sustainable and resilient delta management strategies, which is urgently needed to prevent loss of vital delta services.

Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael R. Guzy

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

Impacts of land use/cover classification accuracy on regional climate simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Ge, Jianjun; Qi, Jiaguo; Lofgren, Brent M.; Moore, Nathan; Torbick, Nathan; Olson, Jennifer M.

2007-03-01

Land use/cover change has been recognized as a key component in global change. Various land cover data sets, including historically reconstructed, recently observed, and future projected, have been used in numerous climate modeling studies at regional to global scales. However, little attention has been paid to the effect of land cover classification accuracy on climate simulations, though accuracy assessment has become a routine procedure in land cover production community. In this study, we analyzed the behavior of simulated precipitation in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) over a range of simulated classification accuracies over a 3 month period. This study found that land cover accuracy under 80% had a strong effect on precipitation especially when the land surface had a greater control of the atmosphere. This effect became stronger as the accuracy decreased. As shown in three follow-on experiments, the effect was further influenced by model parameterizations such as convection schemes and interior nudging, which can mitigate the strength of surface boundary forcings. In reality, land cover accuracy rarely obtains the commonly recommended 85% target. Its effect on climate simulations should therefore be considered, especially when historically reconstructed and future projected land covers are employed.

Projecting future solid waste management requirements on the Hanford Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaver, S.R.; Stiles, D.L.; Holter, G.M.; Anderson, B.C.

1990-09-01

The problem of treating and disposing of hazardous transuranic (TRU), low-level radioactive, and mixed waste has become a major concern of the public and the government. At the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site in Washington state, the problem is compounded by the need to characterize, retrieve, and treat the solid waste that was generated and stored for retrieval during the past 20 years. This paper discusses the development and application of a Solid Waste Projection Model that uses forecast volumes and characteristics of existing and future solid waste to address the treatment, storage, and disposal requirements at Hanford. The model uses a data-driven, object-oriented approach to assess the storage and treatment throughout requirements for each operation for each of the distinct waste classes and the accompanying cost of the storage and treatment operations. By defining the elements of each alternative for the total waste management system, the same database can be used for numerous analyses performed at different levels of detail. This approach also helps a variety of users with widely varying information requirements to use the model and helps achieve the high degree of flexibility needed to cope with changing regulations and evolving treatment and disposal technologies. 2 figs

Land Use Change Modelling in R

Science.gov (United States)

Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.

2014-12-01

Land use activities, through the provision of natural resources, are essential to human existence. In many regions land use change is degrading biodiversity and threatening the sustainability of ecosystem services upon which communities and livelihoods depend. Spatially explicit land use change models are widely used to understand and quantify key processes that affect land use change and make predictions about past and future change. These models typically include a module to estimate the suitability of different locations to particular land use types based on biophysical and socioeconomic predictor variables and a module to allocate change spatially. They are commonly implemented in languages such as C/C++ and Fortran and made available as standalone applications or through proprietary GIS. In many cases the models are released under closed source licences, limiting the reproducibility of scientific results and making model comparison difficult. This work presents a new R package providing methods and classes to support land use change modelling and model development and comparison within the open source R statistical computing environment. The package makes use of existing R implementations of methods such as random forests and recursive partitioning and regression trees to estimate location suitability, as well as providing methods for statistical model building and evaluation. Currently two spatial allocation methods are provided: the first based on the widely used and tested CLUE-S algorithm and the second a novel stochastic procedure developed for large scale applications. Some common tools for evaluating allocation results are implemented. It is hoped that the package will provide a framework for the development of new routines that can be incorporated into future releases of the code.

Impacts of Bioenergy Policies on Land-Use Change in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanley U. Okoro

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In recent years, bioenergy policies have increased the competition for land as well as the risk of adverse environmental impacts resulting from deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs. Primary land-use objectives confronting society today include meeting the growing demand for agricultural products, especially energy crops, preserving essential ecosystem services for human well-being and long-run agrarian production, and contributing to the climate policy target. Here, future agricultural, societal and environmental consequences of bioenergy policies under different global climate and societal development scenarios were assessed using a novel Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model for Nigeria (NGA–FASOM. The results reveal that, in Nigeria, meeting emission reduction requires an implementation of a minimum carbon price of $80/ton within the forest and agricultural sectors. A carbon price alone is not sufficient to preserve the remaining forests and pasture land in Nigeria when bioenergy is subsidized. Furthermore, the result shows that subsidy on bioenergy does not have any significant effect on the total social welfare. The findings in this study provide a guide for policymakers in designing appropriate policies addressing bioenergy industry issues in Nigeria.

14 CFR 29.75 - Landing: General.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... conditions; and (3) The landing must be made without excessive vertical acceleration or tendency to bounce, nose over, ground loop, porpoise, or water loop. (b) The landing data required by §§ 29.77, 29.79, 29...

Significance of Future Biogenic and Fire Emissions on Regional Aerosol Burden

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, A.; Tai, A. P. K.; Val Martin, M.

2017-12-01

Land-use and land cover changes have been found to substantially affect atmospheric aerosols and climate worldwide1,2, but the complex mechanisms and pathways involved in the interactions between terrestrial processes and aerosols are not well understood. Here we use a global coupled aerosol chemistry-climate-land model (CESM with CAM5 using Modal Aerosol Module 3 and CLM4.5 in Satellite Phenology mode) to investigate how aerosols respond to future climate and land-use changes, and in turn, affects cloud cover and other hydrometeorological variables in the long term. Time-sliced simulations are conducted for a base year (2000) as a base case; then three future projected scenarios for year 2050 driven by land-use and climate projections following the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.53 are conducted. The first scenario considers future projected biogenic emissions, allowing us to investigate the effect of increased plant activity and enhanced biogenic emissions due to future land-use and climate on aerosol burden. The second scenario considers future biomass burning emissions, allowing us to investigate the effect of increased biomass burning emissions due to future land-use and climate on aerosol burden. The third scenario combines the projected changes in the two emissions. We find that both biogenic and biomass burning emissions contribute significantly to local aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The contribution from biogenic emissions to local aerosol burden is smaller in magnitude (10% to 20%), but the effects are ubiquitous in many places globally. Meanwhile, the contribution from biomass burning emissions can be much higher in magnitude (63%)4, but concentrated in heavily burned regions and occurs only during burning season. Effects of both emissions are not additive since a larger flux of emissions causes greater deposition. The resulting further impacts of land-use change on regional hydrometeorology are also explored

Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants

Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-08-01

OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

Dynamic Agricultural Land Unit Profile Database Generation using Landsat Time Series Images

Science.gov (United States)

Torres-Rua, A. F.; McKee, M.

2012-12-01

Agriculture requires continuous supply of inputs to production, while providing final or intermediate outputs or products (food, forage, industrial uses, etc.). Government and other economic agents are interested in the continuity of this process and make decisions based on the available information about current conditions within the agriculture area. From a government point of view, it is important that the input-output chain in agriculture for a given area be enhanced in time, while any possible abrupt disruption be minimized or be constrained within the variation tolerance of the input-output chain. The stability of the exchange of inputs and outputs becomes of even more important in disaster-affected zones, where government programs will look for restoring the area to equal or enhanced social and economical conditions before the occurrence of the disaster. From an economical perspective, potential and existing input providers require up-to-date, precise information of the agriculture area to determine present and future inputs and stock amounts. From another side, agriculture output acquirers might want to apply their own criteria to sort out present and future providers (farmers or irrigators) based on the management done during the irrigation season. In the last 20 years geospatial information has become available for large areas in the globe, providing accurate, unbiased historical records of actual agriculture conditions at individual land units for small and large agricultural areas. This data, adequately processed and stored in any database format, can provide invaluable information for government and economic interests. Despite the availability of the geospatial imagery records, limited or no geospatial-based information about past and current farming conditions at the level of individual land units exists for many agricultural areas in the world. The absence of this information challenges the work of policy makers to evaluate previous or current

Design of guidance laws for lunar pinpoint soft landing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Guo, J.; Han, C.

2009-01-01

Future lunar missions ask for the capability to perform precise Guidance, Navigation and Control (GNC) to the selected landing sites on the lunar surface. This paper studies the guidance issues for the lunar pinpoint soft landing problem. The primary contribution of this paper is the design of

Supporting institutional development in land administration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enemark, Stig

2006-01-01

Land management is the process by which the resources of land are put into good effect. Land management encompasses all activities associated with the management of land and natural resources that are required to achieve sustainable development. Land Administration Systems are institutional......, the national capacity to manage land rights, restrictions and responsibilities is not well developed in terms of mature institutions and the necessary human resources and skills. The paper examines the capacity building concept and underpins the need for institutional development to facilitate the design...... and implementation of efficient Land Administration Models and to support good governance. The paper identifies the role of FIG in this regard. This includes support for professional, institutional and global development in surveying and land management, and aims to facilitate the creation of sustainable...

10 CFR 60.121 - Requirements for ownership and control of interests in land.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... either acquired lands under the jurisdiction and control of DOE, or lands permanently withdrawn and..., such as: (i) Rights arising under the general mining laws; (ii) easements for right-of-way; and (iii... postclosure controlled area. DOE shall exercise any jurisdiction and control over surface and subsurface...

A prototype for automation of land-cover products from Landsat Surface Reflectance Data Records

Science.gov (United States)

Rover, J.; Goldhaber, M. B.; Steinwand, D.; Nelson, K.; Coan, M.; Wylie, B. K.; Dahal, D.; Wika, S.; Quenzer, R.

2014-12-01

Landsat data records of surface reflectance provide a three-decade history of land surface processes. Due to the vast number of these archived records, development of innovative approaches for automated data mining and information retrieval were necessary. Recently, we created a prototype utilizing open source software libraries for automatically generating annual Anderson Level 1 land cover maps and information products from data acquired by the Landsat Mission for the years 1984 to 2013. The automated prototype was applied to two target areas in northwestern and east-central North Dakota, USA. The approach required the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and two user-input target acquisition year-days. The Landsat archive was mined for scenes acquired within a 100-day window surrounding these target dates, and then cloud-free pixels where chosen closest to the specified target acquisition dates. The selected pixels were then composited before completing an unsupervised classification using the NLCD. Pixels unchanged in pairs of the NLCD were used for training decision tree models in an iterative process refined with model confidence measures. The decision tree models were applied to the Landsat composites to generate a yearly land cover map and related information products. Results for the target areas captured changes associated with the recent expansion of oil shale production and agriculture driven by economics and policy, such as the increase in biofuel production and reduction in Conservation Reserve Program. Changes in agriculture, grasslands, and surface water reflect the local hydrological conditions that occurred during the 29-year span. Future enhancements considered for this prototype include a web-based client, ancillary spatial datasets, trends and clustering algorithms, and the forecasting of future land cover.

Peri-urban futures: Scenarios and models for land use change in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

on a pan-European level Has a conclusive didactic approach + text structure (e.g. inserts, boxes ...) Presently, peri-urbanisation is one of the most pervasive processes of land use change in Europe with strong impacts on both the environment and quality of life. It is a matter of great urgency...... to determine strategies and tools in support of sustainable development. The book synthesizes the results of PLUREL, a large European Commission funded research project (2007-2010). Tools and strategies of PLUREL address main challenges of managing land use in peri-urban areas. These results are presented...

Land use and land cover change based on historical space-time model

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Qiong; Zhang, Chi; Liu, Min; Zhang, Yongjing

2016-09-01

Land use and cover change is a leading edge topic in the current research field of global environmental changes and case study of typical areas is an important approach understanding global environmental changes. Taking the Qiantang River (Zhejiang, China) as an example, this study explores automatic classification of land use using remote sensing technology and analyzes historical space-time change by remote sensing monitoring. This study combines spectral angle mapping (SAM) with multi-source information and creates a convenient and efficient high-precision land use computer automatic classification method which meets the application requirements and is suitable for complex landform of the studied area. This work analyzes the histological space-time characteristics of land use and cover change in the Qiantang River basin in 2001, 2007 and 2014, in order to (i) verify the feasibility of studying land use change with remote sensing technology, (ii) accurately understand the change of land use and cover as well as historical space-time evolution trend, (iii) provide a realistic basis for the sustainable development of the Qiantang River basin and (iv) provide a strong information support and new research method for optimizing the Qiantang River land use structure and achieving optimal allocation of land resources and scientific management.

Results from KamLAND-Zen

Science.gov (United States)

Asakura, K.; Gando, A.; Gando, Y.; Hachiya, T.; Hayashida, S.; Ikeda, H.; Inoue, K.; Ishidoshiro, K.; Ishikawa, T.; Ishio, S.; Koga, M.; Matsuda, R.; Matsuda, S.; Mitsui, T.; Motoki, D.; Nakamura, K.; Obara, S.; Oki, Y.; Otani, M.; Oura, T.; Shimizu, I.; Shirahata, Y.; Shirai, J.; Suzuki, A.; Tachibana, H.; Tamae, K.; Ueshima, K.; Watanabe, H.; Xu, B. D.; Yamauchi, Y.; Yoshida, H.; Kozlov, A.; Takemoto, Y.; Yoshida, S.; Fushimi, K.; Banks, T. I.; Freedman, S. J.; Fujikawa, B. K.; O'Donnell, T.; Winslow, L. A.; Berger, B. E.; Efremenko, Y.; Karwowski, H. J.; Markoff, D. M.; Tornow, W.; Detwiler, J. A.; Enomoto, S.; Decowski, M. P.

2015-07-01

KamLAND-Zen reports on a preliminary search for neutrinoless double-beta decay with 136Xe based on 114.8 live-days after the purification of the xenon loaded liquid scintillator. In this data, the problematic 110mAg background peak identified in previous searches is reduced by more than a factor of 10. By combining the KamLAND-Zen pre- and post-purification data, we obtain a preliminary lower limit on the 0νββ decay half-life of T1/2 0 ν>2.6 ×1025 yr at 90% C.L. The search sensitivity will be enhanced with additional low background data after the purification. Prospects for further improvements with future KamLAND-Zen upgrades are also presented.

Building Fit-for-Purpose Land Administration Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enemark, Stig; Bell, Keith; Lemmen, Christiaan

2014-01-01

Arguably sound land governance is the key to achieve sustainable development and to support the global agenda set by adoption of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The operational component of land governance is the country specific land administration systems dealing with the four key...... functions of land tenure, land value, land, and land development. Land administration systems - whether highly advanced or very basic – require a land parcel framework to operate. Building such a land parcel framework – showing the way land is divided into parcels and plots for specific use and possession...... no. 60 on “Fit-for-Purpose Land Administration”. It is argued that the land parcel framework should be developed using a flexible and fit-for-purpose approach rather than being guided by costly field survey procedures or over-engineered technology solutions. When considering the resources...

Global land-water nexus: Agricultural land and freshwater use embodied in worldwide supply chains.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, B; Han, M Y; Peng, K; Zhou, S L; Shao, L; Wu, X F; Wei, W D; Liu, S Y; Li, Z; Li, J S; Chen, G Q

2018-02-01

As agricultural land and freshwater inextricably interrelate and interact with each other, the conventional water and land policy in "silos" should give way to nexus thinking when formulating the land and water management strategies. This study constructs a systems multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model to expound global land-water nexus by simultaneously tracking agricultural land and freshwater use flows along the global supply chains. Furthermore, land productivity and irrigation water requirements of 160 crops in different regions are investigated to reflect the land-water linkage. Results show that developed economies (e.g., USA and Japan) and major large developing economies (e.g., mainland China and India) are the overriding drivers of agricultural land and freshwater use globally. In general, significant net transfers of these two resources are identified from resource-rich and less-developed economies to resource-poor and more-developed economies. For some crops, blue water productivity is inversely related to land productivity, indicating that irrigation water consumption is sometimes at odds with land use. The results could stimulus international cooperation for sustainable land and freshwater management targeting on original suppliers and final consumers along the global supply chains. Moreover, crop-specific land-water linkage could provide insights for trade-off decisions on minimizing the environmental impacts on local land and water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developing a Prototype ALHAT Human System Interface for Landing

Science.gov (United States)

Hirsh, Robert L.; Chua, Zarrin K.; Heino, Todd A.; Strahan, Al; Major, Laura; Duda, Kevin

2011-01-01

The goal of the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) project is to safely execute a precision landing anytime/anywhere on the moon. This means the system must operate in any lighting conditions, operate in the presence of any thruster generated regolith clouds, and operate without the help of redeployed navigational aids or prepared landing site at the landing site. In order to reach this ambitious goal, computer aided technologies such as ALHAT will be needed in order to permit these landings to be done safely. Although there will be advanced autonomous capabilities onboard future landers, humans will still be involved (either onboard as astronauts or remotely from mission control) in any mission to the moon or other planetary body. Because many time critical decisions must be made quickly and effectively during the landing sequence, the Descent and Landing displays need to be designed to be as effective as possible at presenting the pertinent information to the operator, and allow the operators decisions to be implemented as quickly as possible. The ALHAT project has established the Human System Interface (HSI) team to lead in the development of these displays and to study the best way to provide operators enhanced situational awareness during landing activities. These displays are prototypes that were developed based on multiple design and feedback sessions with the astronaut office at NASA/ Johnson Space Center. By working with the astronauts in a series of plan/build/evaluate cycles, the HSI team has obtained astronaut feedback from the very beginning of the design process. In addition to developing prototype displays, the HSI team has also worked to provide realistic lunar terrain (and shading) to simulate a "out the window" view that can be adjusted to various lighting conditions (based on a desired date/time) to allow the same terrain to be viewed under varying lighting terrain. This capability will be critical to determining the

The importance of historical land use in the maintenance of early successional habitat for a threatened rattlesnake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric M. McCluskey

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Understanding how historic habitat changes have impacted species and searching the past for clues to better understand the current plight of threatened species can help inform and improve future conservation efforts. We coupled species distribution modeling with historical imagery analysis to assess how changes in land use/land cover have influenced the distribution of eastern massasauga rattlesnake (Sistrurus catenatus, a federally threatened species, and its habitat in northeastern Ohio over the past ∼75 years. We also examined land use/land cover changes throughout southern Michigan for a broader perspective on the influence of historical processes on contemporary habitat. There was a pronounced shift in northeastern Ohio land cover from 1938 to 2011 with forest cover becoming the predominant land cover type as agricultural fields were abandoned and succession occurred. Most known eastern massasauga locations in the area were at some point used for agriculture and higher habitat suitability values were associated with agricultural fields that were eventually abandoned. We observed more stable habitat conditions across southern Michigan populations indicating agricultural abandonment was not as necessary for habitat creation in this part of their range. We present a new approach for linking historical landscapes to present day habitat suitability models; permitting inferences on how prior land use/land cover states have influenced the current distribution of species and their habitats. We demonstrate how agricultural abandonment was an important source of early successional habitat for a species that requires an open canopy, a finding applicable to a broad array of species with similar habitat requirements. Keywords: Eastern massasauga, Agriculture, Aerial photography, Maxent

Horticultural therapy--aspects of land use for the mentally handicapped. A system of planning for the requirements of the mentally handicapped gardener.

Science.gov (United States)

Spurgeon, T; Underhill, C

1979-01-01

An increasing number of facilities for the mentally handicapped use horticulture, agriculture and gardening in their training programmes. This paper contains a review of: (1) some aspects of land use as a medium for leisure, rehabilitation, therapy and training for the mentally handicapped, (2) employment, both sheltered and open, in land use as reflected in a recent survey, (3) the variety of knowledge available through the medium of land use. The main emphasis of the paper deals with: (1) the need for planning, (2) a suggested planning system that assists the instructor in understanding the requirements of the mentally handicapped gardener when he approaches a given job, (3) some problems peculiar to land use work with the mentally handicapped. In conclusion the authors briefly examine: (1) the need for assessment, (2) the need to distinguish between production and training, (3) suggestions towards an expansion of the planning system to take in other areas of the horticultural unit than were originally described, (4) social activities connected with the horticultural activities described, (5) the hierarchy identified through the use of a particular planning system.

Using Urban Landscape Trajectories to Develop a Multi-Temporal Land Cover Database to Support Ecological Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marina Alberti

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Urbanization and the resulting changes in land cover have myriad impacts on ecological systems. Monitoring these changes across large spatial extents and long time spans requires synoptic remotely sensed data with an appropriate temporal sequence. We developed a multi-temporal land cover dataset for a six-county area surrounding the Seattle, Washington State, USA, metropolitan region. Land cover maps for 1986, 1991, 1995, 1999, and 2002 were developed from Landsat TM images through a combination of spectral unmixing, image segmentation, multi-season imagery, and supervised classification approaches to differentiate an initial nine land cover classes. We then used ancillary GIS layers and temporal information to define trajectories of land cover change through multiple updating and backdating rules and refined our land cover classification for each date into 14 classes. We compared the accuracy of the initial approach with the landscape trajectory modifications and determined that the use of landscape trajectory rules increased our ability to differentiate several classes including bare soil (separated into cleared for development, agriculture, and clearcut forest and three intensities of urban. Using the temporal dataset, we found that between 1986 and 2002, urban land cover increased from 8 to 18% of our study area, while lowland deciduous and mixed forests decreased from 21 to 14%, and grass and agriculture decreased from 11 to 8%. The intensity of urban land cover increased with 252 km2 in Heavy Urban in 1986 increasing to 629 km2 by 2002. The ecological systems that are present in this region were likely significantly altered by these changes in land cover. Our results suggest that multi-temporal (i.e., multiple years and multiple seasons within years Landsat data are an economical means to quantify land cover and land cover change across large and highly heterogeneous urbanizing landscapes. Our data, and similar temporal land cover change

Land under pressure: soil conservation concerns and opportunities for Ethiopia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sonneveld, B.G.J.S.; Keyzer, M.A.

2003-01-01

This paper evaluates the future impact of soil degradation on national food security and land occupation in Ethiopia. It applies a spatial optimization model that maximizes national agricultural revenues under alternative scenarios of soil conservation, land accessibility and technology. The

Analyzing the Impacts of Land Use Land Change on Near Shore Coastal Habitat

Science.gov (United States)

Lehman, R. D.; Ta, E.; Boyle, C.; Alwood, B.

2017-12-01

The natural beauty of the United States Virgin Islands (USVI) has continued to attract visitors and residents, which overtime has increased human development and impact. The resulting land use change increases sediment loads and the flow of pollutants into surrounding nearshore environments such as coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass beds. Compounded with regional climate-related processes such as rising ocean temperatures and acidification, future land-use change poses a formidable threat to coral reefs and other susceptible marine environments. Without a healthy environment, the USVI economy also becomes endangered because it is mainly supported by tourism and recreation. Using Google Earth Engine, we created a tool to composite yearly Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS and Sentinel-2 MSI images identify changes from 1985 to present day. Using these land cover change maps we then analyzed trends at a watershed scale using hydrological data. We found there is a spatial relationship between development intensity and the health of coral reefs. Our work supports the existing knowledge of the link between land use and coastal ecosystem health.

Your Family Land: Legacy or Memory? An Introduction to the Family Land Protection Process

Science.gov (United States)

USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Area, State and Private Forestry

2008-01-01

If you have this perspective, protecting your land from development is a task you certainly can accomplish. Virtually every situation is workable and every problem can be solved. It does require some planning and decisionmaking; however, so the sooner you start the better. Experience has shown that the number one obstacle to the protection of family land...

Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Law, Beverly E

2014-12-01

Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change: An Example from the Italian Alps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Žiga Malek

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientists in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario development can be a useful tool for addressing the high uncertainty regarding modeling future land use changes. Scenarios are not exact forecasts, but images of plausible futures. When studying future land dynamics, emphasis should be given to areas experiencing high rates of socioeconomic change. We have focused on the eastern Italian Alps, which face increasing pressure from tourism development. Identified drivers of local land use change are mostly external and difficult to quantify. This area, characterized by a traditional Alpine landscape, is subject to high levels of hydro-meteorological risk, another reason to study potential future land use changes. We tested a scenario generation method based on existing decisions and assumptions about future tourism development. We aimed to develop a framework leading to plausible scenarios that can overcome data inaccessibility and address external drivers. We combined qualitative methods, such as stakeholder interviews and cognitive mapping, with geospatial methods, such as geographic information systems, geostatistics, and environmental modeling. We involved stakeholders from the beginning to support the steps of generating data, understanding the system of land use change, and developing a land use change model for scenario development. In this way, we generated spatio-temporal scenarios that can assist future spatial planning and improve preparedness for possible undesirable development.

Impact of Climate Change on Soil and Groundwater Chemistry Subject to Process Waste Land Application

Science.gov (United States)

McNab, W. W.

2013-12-01

Nonhazardous aqueous process waste streams from food and beverage industry operations are often discharged via managed land application in a manner designed to minimize impacts to underlying groundwater. Process waste streams are typically characterized by elevated concentrations of solutes such as ammonium, organic nitrogen, potassium, sodium, and organic acids. Land application involves the mixing of process waste streams with irrigation water which is subsequently applied to crops. The combination of evapotranspiration and crop salt uptake reduces the downward mass fluxes of percolation water and salts. By carefully managing application schedules in the context of annual climatological cycles, growing seasons, and process requirements, potential adverse environmental impacts to groundwater can be mitigated. However, climate change poses challenges to future process waste land application efforts because the key factors that determine loading rates - temperature, evapotranspiration, seasonal changes in the quality and quantity of applied water, and various crop factors - are all likely to deviate from current averages. To assess the potential impact of future climate change on the practice of land application, coupled process modeling entailing transient unsaturated fluid flow, evapotranspiration, crop salt uptake, and multispecies reactive chemical transport was used to predict changes in salt loading if current practices are maintained in a warmer, drier setting. As a first step, a coupled process model (Hydrus-1D, combined with PHREEQC) was calibrated to existing data sets which summarize land application loading rates, soil water chemistry, and crop salt uptake for land disposal of process wastes from a food industry facility in the northern San Joaquin Valley of California. Model results quantify, for example, the impacts of evapotranspiration on both fluid flow and soil water chemistry at shallow depths, with secondary effects including carbonate mineral

The relative importance among anthropogenic forcings of land use/land cover change in affecting temperature extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

2018-05-01

Land use/land cover change (LULCC) exerts significant influence on regional climate extremes, but its relative importance compared with other anthropogenic climate forcings has not been thoroughly investigated. This study compares land use forcing with other forcing agents in explaining the simulated historical temperature extreme changes since preindustrial times in the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) project. CESM-LME suggests that the land use forcing has caused an overall cooling in both warm and cold extremes, and has significantly decreased diurnal temperature range (DTR). Due to the competing effects of the GHG and aerosol forcings, the spatial pattern of changes in 1850-2005 climatology of temperature extremes in CESM-LME can be largely explained by the land use forcing, especially for hot extremes and DTR. The dominance of land use forcing is particularly evident over Europe, eastern China, and the central and eastern US. Temporally, the land-use cooling is relatively stable throughout the historical period, while the warming of temperature extremes is mainly influenced by the enhanced GHG forcing, which has gradually dampened the local dominance of the land use effects. Results from the suite of CMIP5 experiments partially agree with the local dominance of the land use forcing in CESM-LME, but inter-model discrepancies exist in the distribution and sign of the LULCC-induced temperature changes. Our results underline the overall importance of LULCC in historical temperature extreme changes, implying land use forcing should be highlighted in future climate projections.

Scenarios of land cover in China

Science.gov (United States)

Yue, Tian Xiang; Fan, Ze Meng; Liu, Ji Yuan

2007-02-01

A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.

A Human Resource Development Action Plan for the Radiography Program Sponsored by Lincoln Land/St. John's Based on a View of the Radiographer of the Future.

Science.gov (United States)

Dowd, Steven B.

The purpose of a practicum was to develop an effective and valid human resource development plan based on a view of the practitioner of the future. The targeted program was one in radiography (radiologic technology) co-sponsored by Lincoln Land Community College and St. John's Hospital (Illinois). A review of the literature was used to establish a…

Ecological support for rural land-use planning.

Science.gov (United States)

David M. Theobald; Thomas Spies; Jeff Kline; Bruce Maxwell; N. T. Hobbs; Virginia H. Dale

2005-01-01

How can ecologists be more effective in supporting ecologically informed rural land-use planning and policy? Improved decision making about rural lands requires careful consideration of how ecological information and analyses can inform specific planning and policy needs. We provide a brief overview of rural land-use planning, including recently developed approaches to...

Vertebrate land invasions-past, present, and future: an introduction to the symposium.

Science.gov (United States)

Ashley-Ross, Miriam A; Hsieh, S Tonia; Gibb, Alice C; Blob, Richard W

2013-08-01

The transition from aquatic to terrestrial habitats was a seminal event in vertebrate evolution because it precipitated a sudden radiation of species as new land animals diversified in response to novel physical and biological conditions. However, the first stages of this environmental transition presented numerous challenges to ancestrally aquatic organisms, and necessitated changes in the morphological and physiological mechanisms that underlie most life processes, among them movement, feeding, respiration, and reproduction. How did solutions to these functional challenges evolve? One approach to this question is to examine modern vertebrate species that face analogous demands; just as the first tetrapods lived at the margins of bodies of water and likely moved between water and land regularly, many extant fishes and amphibians use their body systems in both aquatic and terrestrial habitats on a daily basis. Thus, studies of amphibious vertebrates elucidate the functional demands of two very different habitats and clarify our understanding of the initial evolutionary challenges of moving onto land. A complementary approach is to use studies of the fossil record and comparative development to gain new perspectives on form and function of modern amphibious and non-amphibious vertebrate taxa. Based on the synthetic approaches presented in the symposium, it is clear that our understanding of aquatic-to-terrestrial transitions is greatly improved by the reciprocal integration of paleontological and neontological perspectives. In addition, common themes and new insights that emerged from this symposium point to the value of innovative approaches, new model species, and cutting-edge research techniques to elucidate the functional challenges and evolutionary changes associated with vertebrates' invasion of the land.

Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Schlögl, Matthias; Matulla, Christoph

2018-04-01

In the face of climate change, the assessment of land transport infrastructure exposure towards adverse climate events is of major importance for Europe's economic prosperity and social wellbeing. In this study, a climate index estimating rainfall patterns which trigger landslides in central Europe is analysed until the end of this century and compared to present-day conditions. The analysis of the potential future development of landslide risk is based on an ensemble of dynamically downscaled climate projections which are driven by the SRES A1B socio-economic scenario. Resulting regional-scale climate change projections across central Europe are concatenated with Europe's road and railway network. Results indicate overall increases of landslide occurrence. While flat terrain at low altitudes exhibits an increase of about 1 more potentially landslide-inducing rainfall period per year until the end of this century, higher elevated regions are more affected and show increases of up to 14 additional periods. This general spatial distribution emerges in the near future (2021-2050) but becomes more pronounced in the remote future (2071-2100). Since largest increases are to be found in Alsace, potential impacts of an increasing amount of landslides are discussed using the example of a case study covering the Black Forest mountain range in Baden-Württemberg by further enriching the climate information with additional geodata. The findings derived are suitable to support political decision makers and European authorities in transport, freight and logistics by offering detailed information on which parts of Europe's ground transport network are at particularly high risk concerning landslide activity.

Scaling the land use system : a modelling approach with case studies for Central America

NARCIS (Netherlands)