WorldWideScience

Sample records for future heat extremes

  1. Acclimatization to extreme heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, M. E.; Ganguly, A. R.; Bhatia, U.

    2017-12-01

    Heat extremes throughout the globe, as well as in the United States, are expected to increase. These heat extremes have been shown to impact human health, resulting in some of the highest levels of lives lost as compared with similar natural disasters. But in order to inform decision makers and best understand future mortality and morbidity, adaptation and mitigation must be considered. Defined as the ability for individuals or society to change behavior and/or adapt physiologically, acclimatization encompasses the gradual adaptation that occurs over time. Therefore, this research aims to account for acclimatization to extreme heat by using a hybrid methodology that incorporates future air conditioning use and installation patterns with future temperature-related time series data. While previous studies have not accounted for energy usage patterns and market saturation scenarios, we integrate such factors to compare the impact of air conditioning as a tool for acclimatization, with a particular emphasis on mortality within vulnerable communities.

  2. Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coumou, Dim; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Climatic warming of about 0.5 ° C in the global mean since the 1970s has strongly increased the occurrence-probability of heat extremes on monthly to seasonal time scales. For the 21st century, climate models predict more substantial warming. Here we show that the multi-model mean of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate models accurately reproduces the evolution over time and spatial patterns of the historically observed increase in monthly heat extremes. For the near-term (i.e., by 2040), the models predict a robust, several-fold increase in the frequency of such heat extremes, irrespective of the emission scenario. However, mitigation can strongly reduce the number of heat extremes by the second half of the 21st century. Unmitigated climate change causes most (>50%) continental regions to move to a new climatic regime with the coldest summer months by the end of the century substantially hotter than the hottest experienced today. We show that the land fraction experiencing extreme heat as a function of global mean temperature follows a simple cumulative distribution function, which depends only on natural variability and the level of spatial heterogeneity in the warming. (letter)

  3. Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coumou, Dim; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Climatic warming of about 0.5 ° C in the global mean since the 1970s has strongly increased the occurrence-probability of heat extremes on monthly to seasonal time scales. For the 21st century, climate models predict more substantial warming. Here we show that the multi-model mean of the CMIP5

  4. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  5. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices

  6. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deryng, Delphine; Warren, Rachel; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO 2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO 2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries. (paper)

  7. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) about Extreme Heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  8. Future Heat Waves In Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2017-12-01

    I will review recent work from my group on the impact of climate change on the intensity and frequency of heat waves in Asia. Our studies covered Southwest Asia, South Asia, East China, and the Maritime continent. In any of these regions, the risk associated with climate change impact reflects intensity of natural hazard and level of human vulnerability. Previous work has shown that the wet-bulb temperature is a useful variable to consider in describing the natural hazard from heat waves since it can be easily compared to the natural threshold that defines the upper limit on human survivability. Based on an ensemble of high resolution climate change simulations, we project extremes of wet-bulb temperature conditions in each of these four regions of Asia. We consider the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a moderate mitigation scenario. The results from these regions will be compared and lessons learned summarized.

  9. Legacies from extreme drought increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, M. D.; Knapp, A.; Hoover, D. L.; Avolio, M. L.; Felton, A. J.; Wilcox, K. R.

    2016-12-01

    Climate extremes, such as drought, are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the ecological consequences of these extreme events can be substantial and widespread. Although there is still much to be learned about how ecosystems will respond to an intensification of drought, even less is known about the factors that determine post-drought recovery of ecosystem function. Such knowledge is particularly important because post-drought recovery periods can be protracted depending on the extent to which key plant populations, community structure and biogeochemical processes are affected. These drought legacies may alter ecosystem function for many years post-drought and may impact future sensitivity to climate extremes. We experimentally imposed two extreme growing season droughts in a central US grassland to assess the impacts of repeated droughts on ecosystem resistance (response) and resilience (recovery). We found that this grassland was not resistant to the first extreme drought due to reduced productivity and differential sensitivity of the co-dominant C4 grass (Andropogon gerardii) and C3 forb (Solidago canadensis) species. This differential sensitivity led to a reordering of species abundances within the plant community. Yet, despite this large shift in plant community composition, which persisted post-drought, the grassland was highly resilient post-drought, due to increased abundance of the dominant C4 grass. Because of this shift to increased C4 grass dominance, we expected that previously-droughted grassland would be more resistant to a second extreme drought. However, contrary to these expectations, previously droughted grassland was more sensitive to drought than grassland that had not experienced drought. Thus, our result suggest that legacies of drought (shift in community composition) may increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extreme events.

  10. Spatial vulnerability of Australian urban populations to extreme heat events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel; Phan, Thu; Lynch, Kellie; McInnes, Judith

    2013-04-01

    Extreme heat events pose a risk to the health of all individuals, especially the elderly and the chronically ill, and are associated with an increased demand for healthcare services. In order to address this problem, policy makers' need information about temperatures above which mortality and morbidity of the exposed population is likely to increase, where the vulnerable groups in the community are located, and how the risks from extreme heat events are likely to change in the future. This study identified threshold temperatures for all Australian capital cities, developed a spatial index of population vulnerability, and used climate model output to predict changes in the number of days exceeding temperature thresholds in the future, as well as changes in risk related to changes in urban density and an ageing population. The study has shown that daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts can be used to calculate temperature thresholds for heat alert days. The key risk factors related to adverse health outcomes were found to be areas with intense urban heat islands, areas with higher proportions of older people, and areas with ethnic communities. Maps of spatial vulnerability have been developed to provide information to assist emergency managers, healthcare professionals, and ancillary services develop heatwave preparedness plans at a local scale that target vulnerable groups and address heat-related health risks. The numbers of days exceeding current heat thresholds are predicted to increase over the next 20 to 40 years in all Australian capital cities.

  11. Future Extreme Event Vulnerability in the Rural Northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, J.; Bowen, F. L.; Partridge, T.; Chipman, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Future climate change impacts on humans will be determined by the convergence of evolving physical climate and socioeconomic systems. Of particular concern is the intersection of extreme events and vulnerable populations. Rural areas of the Northeastern United States have experienced increased temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over the past three decades, and face unique challenges due to their physical isolation, natural resources dependent economies, and high poverty rates. To explore the impacts of future extreme events on vulnerable, rural populations in the Northeast, we project extreme events and vulnerability indicators to identify where changes in extreme events and vulnerable populations coincide. Specifically, we analyze future (2046-2075) maximum annual daily temperature, minimum annual daily temperature, maximum annual daily precipitation, and maximum consecutive dry day length for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 using four global climate models (GCM) and a gridded observational dataset. We then overlay those projections with estimates of county-level population and relative income for 2060 to calculate changes in person-events from historical (1976-2005), with a focus on Northeast counties that have less than 250,000 people and are in the bottom income quartile. We find that across the rural Northeast for RCP4.5, heat person-events per year increase tenfold, far exceeding decreases in cold person-events and relatively small changes in precipitation and drought person-events. Counties in the bottom income quartile have historically (1976-2005) experienced a disproportionate number of heat events, and counties in the bottom two income quartiles are projected to experience a greater heat event increase by 2046-2075 than counties in the top two income quartiles. We further explore the relative contributions of event frequency, population, and income changes to the total and geographic distribution of climate change

  12. Amplification of heat extremes by plant CO2 physiological forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Christopher B; Poulsen, Christopher J; Mankin, Justin S

    2018-03-15

    Plants influence extreme heat events by regulating land-atmosphere water and energy exchanges. The contribution of plants to changes in future heat extremes will depend on the responses of vegetation growth and physiology to the direct and indirect effects of elevated CO 2 . Here we use a suite of earth system models to disentangle the radiative versus vegetation effects of elevated CO 2 on heat wave characteristics. Vegetation responses to a quadrupling of CO 2 increase summer heat wave occurrence by 20 days or more-30-50% of the radiative response alone-across tropical and mid-to-high latitude forests. These increases are caused by CO 2 physiological forcing, which diminishes transpiration and its associated cooling effect, and reduces clouds and precipitation. In contrast to recent suggestions, our results indicate CO 2 -driven vegetation changes enhance future heat wave frequency and intensity in most vegetated regions despite transpiration-driven soil moisture savings and increases in aboveground biomass from CO 2 fertilization.

  13. Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena

    2014-05-01

    The aim of study is to analyze the parameters of precipitation extremes and inequality over Ukraine in recent climate epoch and their possible changes in the future. Data of observations from 28 hydrometeorological stations over Ukraine and output of GFDL-CM3 model (CMIP5) for XXI century were used in the study. The methods of concentration index (J. Martin-Vide, 2004) for the study of precipitation inequality while the extreme precipitation indices recommended by the ETCCDI - for the frequency of events. Results. Precipitation inequality on the annual and seasonal scales was studied using estimated CI series for 1951-2005. It was found that annual CI ranges vary from 0.58 to 0.64. They increase southward from the north-west (forest zone) and the north-east (forest steppe zone) of Ukraine. CI maxima are located in the coastal regions of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Annual CI spatial distribution indicates that the contribution of extreme precipitation into annual totals is most significant at the boundary zone between steppe and marine regions. At the same time precipitation pattern at the foothill of Carpathian Mountains is more homogenous. The CI minima (0.54) are typical for the winter season in foothill of Ukrainian Carpathians. The CI maxima reach 0.71 in spring at the steppe zone closed to the Black Sea coast. It should be noted that the greatest ranges of CI maximum and CI minimum deviation are typical for spring. It is associated with patterns of cyclone trajectories in that season. The most territory is characterized by tendency to decrease the contribution of extreme precipitation into the total amount (CI linear trends are predominantly negative in all seasons). Decadal and interdecadal variability of precipitation inequality associated with global processes in ocean-atmosphere system are also studied. It was shown that precipitation inequality over Ukraine on 10 - 15 % stronger in negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and in positive phase

  14. Extreme heat and runoff extremes in the Swiss Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Zappa

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological response of Swiss river basins to the 2003 European summer heatwave was evaluated by a combined analysis of historical discharge records and specific applications of distributed hydrological modeling. In the summer of 2003, the discharge from headwater streams of the Swiss Central Plateau was only 40%–60% of the long-term average. For alpine basins runoff was about 60%–80% of the average. Glacierized basins showed the opposite behavior. According to the degree of glacierization, the average summer runoff was close or even above average. The hydrological model PREVAH was applied for the period 1982–2005. Even if the model was not calibrated for such extreme meteorological conditions, it was well able to simulate the hydrological responses of three basins. The aridity index φ describes feedbacks between hydrological and meteorological anomalies, and was adopted as an indicator of hydrological drought. The anomalies of φ and temperature in the summer of 2003 exceeded the 1982–2005 mean by more than 2 standard deviations. Catchments without glaciers showed negative correlations between φ and discharge R. In basins with about 15% glacierization, φ and R were not correlated. River basins with higher glacier percentages showed a positive correlation between φ and R. Icemelt was positively correlated with φ and reduced the variability of discharge with larger amounts of meltwater. Runoff generation from the non-glaciated sub-areas was limited by high evapotranspiration and reduced precipitation. The 2003 summer heatwave could be a precursor to similar events in the near future. Hydrological models and further data analysis will allow the identification of the most sensitive regions where heatwaves may become a recurrent natural hazard with large environmental, social and economical impacts.

  15. Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol

  16. Future heat supply of our cities. Heating by waste heat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brachetti, H E [Stadtwerke Hannover A.G. (Germany, F.R.); Technische Univ. Hannover (Germany, F.R.))

    1976-08-01

    The energy-price crisis resulted in structural changes of the complete energy supply and reactivated the question of energy management with respect to the optimum solution of meeting the energy requirements for space heating. Condensation power plants are increasingly replaced by thermal stations, the waste heat of which is used as so-called district heat. Thermal power stations must be situated close to urban areas. The problem of emission of harmful materials can partly be overcome by high-level emission. The main subject of the article, however, is the problem of conducting and distributing the heat. The building costs of heat pipeline systems and the requirements to be met by heat pipelines such as strength, heat insulation and protection against humidity and ground water are investigated.

  17. Future heat waves and surface ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Bates, Susan; Pendergrass, Angeline; Lombardozzi, Danica

    2018-06-01

    A global Earth system model is used to study the relationship between heat waves and surface ozone levels over land areas around the world that could experience either large decreases or little change in future ozone precursor emissions. The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0–RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions fixed at 2005 levels. With ongoing increases in greenhouse gases and corresponding increases in average temperature in both experiments, heat waves are projected to become more intense over most global land areas (greater maximum temperatures during heat waves). However, surface ozone concentrations on future heat wave days decrease proportionately more than on non-heat wave days in areas where ozone precursors are prescribed to decrease in RCP6.0 (e.g. most of North America and Europe), while surface ozone concentrations in heat waves increase in areas where ozone precursors either increase or have little change (e.g. central Asia, the Mideast, northern Africa). In the stabilized ozone precursor experiment, surface ozone concentrations increase on future heat wave days compared to non-heat wave days in most regions except in areas where there is ozone suppression that contributes to decreases in ozone in future heat waves. This is likely associated with effects of changes in isoprene emissions at high temperatures (e.g. west coast and southeastern North America, eastern Europe).

  18. Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

    2017-10-01

    Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

  19. Extreme heat event projections for a coastal megacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, L. E.; Gonzalez, J.

    2017-12-01

    As summers become warmer, extreme heat events are expected to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration. Large urban centers may affect these projections by introducing feedbacks between the atmosphere and the built environment through processes involving anthropogenic heat, wind modification, radiation blocking, and others. General circulation models are often run with spatial resolutions in the order of 100 km, limiting their skill at resolving local scale processes and highly spatially varying features such as cities' heterogeneous landscape and mountain topography. This study employs climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model coupled with a modified multi-layer urban canopy and building energy model to downscale CESM1 at 1 km horizontal resolution across three time slices (2006-2010, 2075-2079, and 2095-2099) and two projections (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). New York City Metropolitan area, with a population of over 20 million and a complex urban canopy, is used as a case study. The urban canopy model of WRF was modified to include a drag coefficient as a function of the building plant area fraction and the introduction of evaporative cooling systems at building roofs to reject the anthropogenic heat from the buildings, with urban canopy parameters computed from the New York City Property Land-Use Tax-lot Output (PLUTO). Model performance is evaluated against the input model and historical records from airport stations, showing improvement in the statistical characteristics in the downscaled model output. Projection results are presented as spatially distributed anomalies in heat wave frequency, duration, and maximum intensity from the 2006-2010 benchmark period. Results show that local sea-breeze circulations mitigate heat wave impacts, following a positive gradient with increasing distance from the coastline. However, end of century RCP 8.5 projections show the possibility of reversal of this pattern, sea surface temperatures increase

  20. Radiative heat transfer in the extreme near field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyeongtae; Song, Bai; Fernández-Hurtado, Víctor; Lee, Woochul; Jeong, Wonho; Cui, Longji; Thompson, Dakotah; Feist, Johannes; Reid, M T Homer; García-Vidal, Francisco J; Cuevas, Juan Carlos; Meyhofer, Edgar; Reddy, Pramod

    2015-12-17

    Radiative transfer of energy at the nanometre length scale is of great importance to a variety of technologies including heat-assisted magnetic recording, near-field thermophotovoltaics and lithography. Although experimental advances have enabled elucidation of near-field radiative heat transfer in gaps as small as 20-30 nanometres (refs 4-6), quantitative analysis in the extreme near field (less than 10 nanometres) has been greatly limited by experimental challenges. Moreover, the results of pioneering measurements differed from theoretical predictions by orders of magnitude. Here we use custom-fabricated scanning probes with embedded thermocouples, in conjunction with new microdevices capable of periodic temperature modulation, to measure radiative heat transfer down to gaps as small as two nanometres. For our experiments we deposited suitably chosen metal or dielectric layers on the scanning probes and microdevices, enabling direct study of extreme near-field radiation between silica-silica, silicon nitride-silicon nitride and gold-gold surfaces to reveal marked, gap-size-dependent enhancements of radiative heat transfer. Furthermore, our state-of-the-art calculations of radiative heat transfer, performed within the theoretical framework of fluctuational electrodynamics, are in excellent agreement with our experimental results, providing unambiguous evidence that confirms the validity of this theory for modelling radiative heat transfer in gaps as small as a few nanometres. This work lays the foundations required for the rational design of novel technologies that leverage nanoscale radiative heat transfer.

  1. New and future heat pump technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creswick, F. A.

    It is not possible to say for sure what future heat pumps will look like, but there are some interesting possibilities. In the next five years, we are likely to see US heat pumps with two kinds of innovations: capacity modulation and charge control. Capacity modulation will be accomplished by variable-speed compressor motors. The objective of charge control is to keep the refrigerant charge in the system where it belongs for best performance; there are probably many ways to accomplish this. Charge control will improve efficiency and durability; capacity modulation will further improve efficiency and comfort. The Stirling cycle heat pump has several interesting advantages, but it is farther out in time. At present, we don't know how to make it as efficient as the conventional vapor-compression heat pump. Electric utility people should be aware that major advances are being made in gas-fired heat pumps which could provide strong competition in the future. However, even a gas-fired heat pump has a substantial auxiliary electric power requirement. The resources needed to develop advanced heat pumps are substantial and foreign competition will be intense. It will be important for utilities, manufacturers, and the federal government to work in close cooperation.

  2. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

    2015-01-01

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

  3. Past, present and future variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow

    of non-stationary extreme rainfall behaviour, in Denmark as well as worldwide. To provide recommendations on future design intensities it is necessary to explore and understand patterns of temporal variation in urban design rainfall and identify potential drivers behind past, present and future changes...... to the natural variability, the expected impacts of climate change and their interplay. A large part of the uncertainty is inherent and cannot be reduced. On top of this come the many unknown features in the climate system. The irrational behaviour of mankind contributes to the uncertainty, as it both affects...... the greenhouse gas emissions, and the requirements to cities of the future. Simple case studies based on different decision making frameworks show that the uncertainty of the future is not a hindrance for adaptation....

  4. Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah; van Weele, Michiel; Uhe, Peter; Otto, Friederike; Singh, Roop; Pai, Indrani; Cullen, Heidi; AchutaRao, Krishna

    2018-01-01

    On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India - a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data). Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs), these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse, whereas decreased air pollution

  5. Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. J. van Oldenborgh

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India – a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data. Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs, these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse

  6. A cross-sectional, randomized cluster sample survey of household vulnerability to extreme heat among slum dwellers in ahmedabad, india.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Kathy V; Azhar, Gulrez S; Nair, Rajesh; Knowlton, Kim; Jaiswal, Anjali; Sheffield, Perry; Mavalankar, Dileep; Hess, Jeremy

    2013-06-18

    Extreme heat is a significant public health concern in India; extreme heat hazards are projected to increase in frequency and severity with climate change. Few of the factors driving population heat vulnerability are documented, though poverty is a presumed risk factor. To facilitate public health preparedness, an assessment of factors affecting vulnerability among slum dwellers was conducted in summer 2011 in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India. Indicators of heat exposure, susceptibility to heat illness, and adaptive capacity, all of which feed into heat vulnerability, was assessed through a cross-sectional household survey using randomized multistage cluster sampling. Associations between heat-related morbidity and vulnerability factors were identified using multivariate logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to account for clustering effects. Age, preexisting medical conditions, work location, and access to health information and resources were associated with self-reported heat illness. Several of these variables were unique to this study. As sociodemographics, occupational heat exposure, and access to resources were shown to increase vulnerability, future interventions (e.g., health education) might target specific populations among Ahmedabad urban slum dwellers to reduce vulnerability to extreme heat. Surveillance and evaluations of future interventions may also be worthwhile.

  7. The Importance of Studying Past Extreme Floods to Prepare for Uncertain Future Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burges, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    Hoyt and Langbein, 1955 in their book `Floods' wrote: " ..meteorologic and hydrologic conditions will combine to produce superfloods of unprecedented magnitude. We have every reason to believe that in most rivers past floods may not be an accurate measure of ultimate flood potentialities. It is this superflood with which we are always most concerned". I provide several examples to offer some historical perspective on assessing extreme floods. In one example, flooding in the Miami Valley, OH in 1913 claimed 350 lives. The engineering and socio-economic challenges facing the Morgan Engineering Co in how to mitigate against future flood damage and loss of life when limited information was available provide guidance about ways to face an uncertain hydroclimate future, particularly one of a changed climate. A second example forces us to examine mixed flood populations and illustrates the huge uncertainty in assigning flood magnitude and exceedance probability to extreme floods in such cases. There is large uncertainty in flood frequency estimates; knowledge of the total flood hydrograph, not the peak flood flow rate alone, is what is needed for hazard mitigation assessment or design. Some challenges in estimating the complete flood hydrograph in an uncertain future climate, including demands on hydrologic models and their inputs, are addressed.

  8. Using Extreme Tropical Precipitation Statistics to Constrain Future Climate States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igel, M.; Biello, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical precipitation is characterized by a rapid growth in mean intensity as the column humidity increases. This behavior is examined in both a cloud resolving model and with high-resolution observations of precipitation and column humidity from CloudSat and AIRS, respectively. The model and the observations exhibit remarkable consistency and suggest a new paradigm for extreme precipitation. We show that the total precipitation can be decomposed into a product of contributions from a mean intensity, a probability of precipitation, and a global PDF of column humidity values. We use the modeling and observational results to suggest simple, analytic forms for each of these functions. The analytic representations are then used to construct a simple expression for the global accumulated precipitation as a function of the parameters of each of the component functions. As the climate warms, extreme precipitation intensity and global precipitation are expected to increase, though at different rates. When these predictions are incorporated into the new analytic expression for total precipitation, predictions for changes due to global warming to the probability of precipitation and the PDF of column humidity can be made. We show that strong constraints can be imposed on the future shape of the PDF of column humidity but that only weak constraints can be set on the probability of precipitation. These are largely imposed by the intensification of extreme precipitation. This result suggests that understanding precisely how extreme precipitation responds to climate warming is critical to predicting other impactful properties of global hydrology. The new framework can also be used to confirm and discount existing theories for shifting precipitation.

  9. Floridian heatwaves and extreme precipitation: future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavendra, Ajay; Dai, Aiguo; Milrad, Shawn M.; Cloutier-Bisbee, Shealynn R.

    2018-02-01

    Observational analysis and climate modeling efforts concur that the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves will increase as the Earth's mean climate shifts towards warmer temperatures. While the impacts and mechanisms of heatwaves have been well explored, extreme temperatures over Florida are generally understudied. This paper sheds light on Floridian heatwaves by exploring 13 years of daily data from surface observations and high-resolution WRF climate simulations for the same timeframe. The characteristics of the current and future heatwaves under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario for 2070-2099 were then investigated. Results show a tripling in the frequency, and greater than a sixfold increase in the mean duration of heatwaves over Florida when the current standard of heatwaves was used. The intensity of heatwaves also increased by 4-6 °C due to the combined effects of rising mean temperatures and a 1-2 °C increase attributed to the flattening of the temperature distribution. Since Florida's atmospheric boundary layer is rich in moisture and heatwaves could further increase the moisture content in the lower troposphere, the relationship between heatwaves and extreme precipitation was also explored in both the current and future climate. As expected, rainfall during a heatwave event was anomalously low, but it quickly recovered to normal within 3 days after the passage of a heatwave. Finally, the late 21st-century climate could witness a slight decrease in the mean precipitation over Florida, accompanied by heavier heatwave-associated extreme precipitation events over central and southern Florida.

  10. High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

  11. Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

    2018-04-01

    Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

  12. Urban Heat Island phenomenon in extreme continental climate (Astana, Kazakhstan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konstantinov, Pavel; Akhmetova, Alina

    2015-04-01

    Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon is well known in scientific literature since first half of the 19th century [1]. By now a wide number of world capitals is described from climatological point of view, especially in mid-latitudes. In beginning of XXI century new studies focus on heat island of tropical cities. However dynamics UHI in extreme continental climates is insufficiently investigated, due to the fact that there isn't large cities in Europe and Northern America within that climate type. In this paper we investigate seasonal and diurnal dynamics UHI intensity for Astana, capital city of Kazakhstan (population larger than 835 000 within the city) including UHI intensity changes on different time scales. Now (since 1998) Astana is the second coldest capital city in the world after Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia [3] For this study we use the UHI investigation technology, described in [2]. According to this paper, we selected three stations: one located into city in high and midrise buildings area (including extensive lowrise and high-energy industrial - LCZ classification) and two others located in rural site (sparsely built or open-set and lightweight lowrise according LCZ classification). Also these stations must be close by distance (less than 100 km) and altitude. Therefore, first for Astana city were obtained numerical evaluations for UHI climate dynamics, UHI dependence of synoptic situations and total UHI climatology on monthly and daily averages. References: 1.Howard, L. (1833) The Climate of London, Deduced from Meteorological Observations. Volume 2, London. 2.Kukanova E.A., Konstantinov P.I. An urban heat islands climatology in Russia and linkages to the climate change In Geophysical Research Abstracts, volume 16 of EGU General Assembly, pages EGU2014-10833-1, Germany, 2014. Germany. 3.www.pogoda.ru.net

  13. Assessing the impact of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate changes will place big challenges to the US agricultural system, among which increasing heat stress and precipitation variability were the two major concerns. Reliable prediction of crop productions in response to the increasingly frequent and severe extreme climate is a prerequisite for developing adaptive strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress has been slow on quantifying the uncertainty of computational predictions at high spatial resolutions. Here we assessed the risks of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) model under different climate scenarios. To quantify the uncertainty due to conceptual representations of heat, drought and flooding stress in crop models, we proposed a new strategy of algorithm ensemble in which different methods for simulating crop responses to those extreme climatic events were incorporated into the APSIM. This strategy allowed us to isolate irrelevant structure differences among existing crop models but only focus on the process of interest. Future climate inputs were derived from high-spatial-resolution (12km × 12km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Based on crop model simulations, we analyzed the magnitude and frequency of heat, drought and flooding stress for the 21st century. We also evaluated the water use efficiency and water deficit on regional scales if farmers were to boost their yield by applying more fertilizers. Finally we proposed spatially explicit adaptation strategies of irrigation and fertilizing for different management zones.

  14. Extreme Heat: A Prevention Guide to Promote Your Personal Health and Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  15. Characteristic changes in heat extremes over India in response to global warming using CMIP5 model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundeti, K.; Chang, H. H.; T V, L. K.; Desamsetti, S.; Dandi, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect climatological mean and extremes around the world. Summer season surface climate of the Indian sub continent is characterized by hot and humid conditions. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over India that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. In this study we examine very direct measure of the impact of climate change on human health and comfort. The Heat stress Index is the measure of combined effects of temperature and atmospheric moisture on the ability of the human body to dissipate heat. It is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal mean of heat stress index, it is also desirable to know how the future holds when it comes to extremes in temperature for a country like India where so much of outdoor activities happen both in the onshore/offshore energy sectors, extensive construction activities. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in the present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in heat extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCP's (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In view of this, we provide the expected future changes in the seasonal mean heat stress indices and also the frequency of heat stress exceeding a certain threshold relevant to Inida. Besides, we provide spatial maps of expected future changes in the heat stress index derived as a function of daily mean temperature and relative humidity and representative of human comfort having a direct bearing on the human activities. The observations show an increase in heat extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of heat extremes

  16. Temporal changes in morality attributed to heat extremes for 57 cities in Northeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Whanhee; Choi, Hayon Michelle; Kim, Dahye; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Kim, Ho

    2018-03-01

    Recent studies have reported that heat-related mortality decreased by adaptation during decades. However, since the frequency of extreme heat events is increasing, it is difficult to conclude with certainty that the heat mortality burden is decreasing. To examine temporal changes in mortality attributed to heat extremes in Northeast Asia, we collected temperature and mortality data covering the years 1972-2012 from 57 cities of 3 countries (Taiwan, Korea, and Japan) in Northeast Asia. Poisson regression curves were fitted to the data from each city. The temporal changes in heat-mortality association were estimated with a time-varying distributed lag non-linear model. Heat extremes were defined as temperatures greater than the 97.5th percentiles of city-specific average temperatures. Attributable deaths were calculated considering temporal variations in exposure and relative risk. The estimates were then pooled through meta-analysis. The results show that the mortality risk on extreme heat days declined during the study period in all countries. However, as summer temperatures in Japan have shown more heat extremes over time, the mortality risk attributed to heat increased during 2003-2012 (0.32%) compared with 1972-1981 (0.19%). Thus, to assess the total health burden due to heat extremes related to climate change, public health strategies should focus on the temporal variation in heat-mortality association as well as changes in the distribution of heat extremes overtime. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosson, William L; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Economou, Sigrid, A.; Estes, Maurice G.; Estes, Sue M.; Puckett, Mark; Quattrochi, Dale A

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual

  18. The biogeophysical effects of extreme afforestation in modeling future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ye; Yan, Xiaodong; Wang, Zhaomin

    2014-11-01

    Afforestation has been deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming due to its substantial carbon sequestration, which is partly counterbalanced with its biogeophysical effects through modifying the fluxes of energy, water, and momentum at the land surface. To assess the potential biophysical effects of afforestation, a set of extreme experiments in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, the McGill Paleoclimate Model-2 (MPM-2), is designed. Model results show that latitudinal afforestation not only has a local warming effect but also induces global and remote warming over regions beyond the forcing originating areas. Precipitation increases in the northern hemisphere and decreases in southern hemisphere in response to afforestation. The local surface warming over the forcing originating areas in northern hemisphere is driven by decreases in surface albedo and increases in precipitation. The remote surface warming in southern hemisphere is induced by decreases in surface albedo and precipitation. The results suggest that the potential impact of afforestation on regional and global climate depended critically on the location of the forest expansion. That is, afforestation in 0°-15°N leaves a relatively minor impact on global and regional temperature; afforestation in 45°-60°N results in a significant global warming, while afforestation in 30°-45°N results in a prominent regional warming. In addition, the afforestation leads to a decrease in annual mean meridional oceanic heat transport with a maximum decrease in forest expansion of 30°-45°N. These results can help to compare afforestation effects and find areas where afforestation mitigates climate change most effectively combined with its carbon drawdown effects.

  19. Excess Mortality Attributable to Extreme Heat in New York City, 1997-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Thomas D; Lane, Kathryn; Ito, Kazuhiko

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat event excess mortality has been estimated statistically to assess impacts, evaluate heat emergency response, and project climate change risks. We estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events in New York City (NYC). Extreme heat events were defined as days meeting current National Weather Service forecast criteria for issuing heat advisories in NYC based on observed maximum daily heat index values from LaGuardia Airport. Outcomes were daily non-external-cause death counts for NYC residents from May through September from 1997 to 2013 (n = 337,162). The cumulative relative risk (CRR) of death associated with extreme heat events was estimated in a Poisson time-series model for each year using an unconstrained distributed lag for days 0-3 accommodating over dispersion, and adjusting for within-season trends and day of week. Attributable death counts were computed by year based on individual year CRRs. The pooled CRR per extreme heat event day was 1.11 (95%CI 1.08-1.14). The estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths attributable to heat waves ranged from -14 to 358, with a median of 121. Point estimates of heat wave-attributable deaths were greater than 0 in all years but one and were correlated with the number of heat wave days (r = 0.81). Average excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events were nearly 11-fold greater than hyperthermia deaths. Estimated extreme heat event-associated excess deaths may be a useful indicator of the impact of extreme heat events, but single-year estimates are currently too imprecise to identify short-term changes in risk.

  20. Gas Fride Heat Pumps : The Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurosawa, Shigekichi; Ogura, Masao

    In japan techniques for saving energy is an important goal since energy resources such as oil and nuclear power are limited. Recently gas fired absorption heat pumps and gas engine driven heat pumps have been installed in facilifies such as hotels, swimming pools and offices. In this article recent techniques, applications and future aspects for gas fired heat pumps are explained.

  1. Future frequencies of extreme weather events in the National Wildlife Refuges of the conterminous U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Bateman, Brooke L.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Radeloff, Volker C.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a major challenge for managers of protected areas world-wide, and managers need information about future climate conditions within protected areas. Prior studies of climate change effects in protected areas have largely focused on average climatic conditions. However, extreme weather may have stronger effects on wildlife populations and habitats than changes in averages. Our goal was to quantify future changes in the frequency of extreme heat, drought, and false springs, during the avian breeding season, in 415 National Wildlife Refuges in the conterminous United States. We analyzed spatially detailed data on extreme weather frequencies during the historical period (1950–2005) and under different scenarios of future climate change by mid- and late-21st century. We found that all wildlife refuges will likely experience substantial changes in the frequencies of extreme weather, but the types of projected changes differed among refuges. Extreme heat is projected to increase dramatically in all wildlife refuges, whereas changes in droughts and false springs are projected to increase or decrease on a regional basis. Half of all wildlife refuges are projected to see increases in frequency (> 20% higher than the current rate) in at least two types of weather extremes by mid-century. Wildlife refuges in the Southwest and Pacific Southwest are projected to exhibit the fastest rates of change, and may deserve extra attention. Climate change adaptation strategies in protected areas, such as the U.S. wildlife refuges, may need to seriously consider future changes in extreme weather, including the considerable spatial variation of these changes.

  2. Past and future changes in extreme sea levels and waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Lawe, J.A.; Woodworth, P.L.; Knutson, T.; McDonald, R.E.; Mclnnes, K.L.; Woth, K.; Von Storch, H.; Wolf, J.; Swail, V.; Bernier, N.B.; Gulev, S.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Hunter, J.R.; Weisse, R.

    of Extreme Sea Level 11.3.1 An Introduction to Storms Both mid-latitude and tropical storms are associated with extremes of sea level. Storm surges are generated by low atmospheric pressure and intense winds over the ocean. The latter also cause high wave... timescales, extremes and mean-sea-level change are both major factors in determining coastal evolution including the development of coastal ecosystems. It will be seen below that, although it is difficult to determine how mean sea level has changed...

  3. Future changes in hydro-climatic extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijngaard, René R; Lutz, Arthur F; Nepal, Santosh; Khanal, Sonu; Pradhananga, Saurav; Shrestha, Arun B; Immerzeel, Walter W

    2017-01-01

    Future hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may pose serious threats for the livelihoods in the upstream domains of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra. For this reason, the impacts of climate change on future hydrological extremes is investigated in these river basins. We use a fully-distributed cryospheric-hydrological model to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes and force the model with an ensemble of 8 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model is calibrated on observed daily discharge and geodetic mass balances. The climate forcing and the outputs of the hydrological model are used to evaluate future changes in climatic extremes, and hydrological extremes by focusing on high and low flows. The outcomes show an increase in the magnitude of climatic means and extremes towards the end of the 21st century where climatic extremes tend to increase stronger than climatic means. Future mean discharge and high flow conditions will very likely increase. These increases might mainly be the result of increasing precipitation extremes. To some extent temperature extremes might also contribute to increasing discharge extremes, although this is highly dependent on magnitude of change in temperature extremes. Low flow conditions may occur less frequently, although the uncertainties in low flow projections can be high. The results of this study may contribute to improved understanding on the implications of climate change for the occurrence of future hydrological extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region.

  4. Future changes in hydro-climatic extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René R Wijngaard

    Full Text Available Future hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may pose serious threats for the livelihoods in the upstream domains of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra. For this reason, the impacts of climate change on future hydrological extremes is investigated in these river basins. We use a fully-distributed cryospheric-hydrological model to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes and force the model with an ensemble of 8 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model is calibrated on observed daily discharge and geodetic mass balances. The climate forcing and the outputs of the hydrological model are used to evaluate future changes in climatic extremes, and hydrological extremes by focusing on high and low flows. The outcomes show an increase in the magnitude of climatic means and extremes towards the end of the 21st century where climatic extremes tend to increase stronger than climatic means. Future mean discharge and high flow conditions will very likely increase. These increases might mainly be the result of increasing precipitation extremes. To some extent temperature extremes might also contribute to increasing discharge extremes, although this is highly dependent on magnitude of change in temperature extremes. Low flow conditions may occur less frequently, although the uncertainties in low flow projections can be high. The results of this study may contribute to improved understanding on the implications of climate change for the occurrence of future hydrological extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region.

  5. Ranking of European Capitals According to the Impact of Future Heat Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smid, M.; Costa, A. C.; Russo, S.; Pebesma, E. J.; Canut, C. G.

    2017-12-01

    In warming Europe, we are witnessing a growth in urban population with aging trend, which will make the society more vulnerable to extreme heat waves. In the period 1950-2015 the occurrence of extreme heat waves increased across European capitals. As an example, Moscow was hit by the strongest heat wave of the present era, killing more than ten thousand people. Here we focus on larger metropolitan areas of European capitals. By using observations and an ensemble of eight EURO-CORDEX models under the RCP8.5 scenario, we calculate a suite of temperature based climate indices. We introduce a simple ranking procedure based on ensemble predictions using the mean of metropolitan grid cells for each capital, and population density as a proxy to quantify the future impact. Results show that the selected ensemble provides solid simulation of climate characteristics over most of the targeted metropolitan areas. All the investigated European metropolitan areas will be more vulnerable to extreme heat in the coming decades. Based on the impact ranking, the results reveal that in near, but mainly in distant future, the extreme heat events in European capitals will be not exclusive to traditionally exposed areas such as the Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of European capitals based on their vulnerability to the extreme heat could be of paramount importance to the decision makers in order to mitigate the heat related mortality, especially with the foreseen increase of global mean temperature. Acknowledgments: The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of Geoinformatics: Enabling Open Cities (GEO-C), the project funded by the European Commission within the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, International Training Networks (ITN), European Joint Doctorates (EJD). Grant Agreement number 642332 — GEO-C — H2020-MSCA-ITN-2014.

  6. Present limits to heat-adaptability in corals and population-level responses to climate extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernhard M Riegl

    Full Text Available Climate change scenarios suggest an increase in tropical ocean temperature by 1-3°C by 2099, potentially killing many coral reefs. But Arabian/Persian Gulf corals already exist in this future thermal environment predicted for most tropical reefs and survived severe bleaching in 2010, one of the hottest years on record. Exposure to 33-35°C was on average twice as long as in non-bleaching years. Gulf corals bleached after exposure to temperatures above 34°C for a total of 8 weeks of which 3 weeks were above 35°C. This is more heat than any other corals can survive, providing an insight into the present limits of holobiont adaptation. We show that average temperatures as well as heat-waves in the Gulf have been increasing, that coral population levels will fluctuate strongly, and reef-building capability will be compromised. This, in combination with ocean acidification and significant local threats posed by rampant coastal development puts even these most heat-adapted corals at risk. WWF considers the Gulf ecoregion as "critically endangered". We argue here that Gulf corals should be considered for assisted migration to the tropical Indo-Pacific. This would have the double benefit of avoiding local extinction of the world's most heat-adapted holobionts while at the same time introducing their genetic information to populations naïve to such extremes, potentially assisting their survival. Thus, the heat-adaptation acquired by Gulf corals over 6 k, could benefit tropical Indo-Pacific corals who have <100 y until they will experience a similarly harsh climate. Population models suggest that the heat-adapted corals could become dominant on tropical reefs within ∼20 years.

  7. Future Midwest Heat Waves in WRF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, M.; Buzan, J. R.; Yoo, J.

    2017-12-01

    We present heat stress results for the upper Midwest derived from convection resolving Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations carried out for the RCP 8.5 Scenario and driven by Community Earth System Model (CESM) boundary conditions as part of the Indiana Climate Change Assessment. Using this modeling system we find widespread and severe increases in moist heat stress metrics in the Midwest by end of century. We detail scaling arguments that suggest our results are robust and not model dependent and describe potential health, welfare, and productivity implications of these results.

  8. Heat pipe applications for future Air Force spacecraft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahefkey, T.; Barthelemy, R.R.

    1980-01-01

    This paper summarizes the envisioned, future usage of high and low temperature heat pipes in advanced Air Force spacecraft. Thermal control requirements for a variety of communications, surveillance, and space defense missions are forecast. Thermal design constraints implied by survivability to potential weapons effects are outlined. Applications of heat pipes to meet potential low and high power spacecraft mission requirements and envisioned design constraints are suggested. A brief summary of past Air Force sponsored heat pipe development efforts is presented and directions for future development outlined, including those applicable to advanced photovoltaic and nuclear power subsystem applications of heat pipes

  9. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widlansky, Matthew J; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-09-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise.

  10. Identifying Population Vulnerable to Extreme Heat Events in San Jose, California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, A. L.

    2016-12-01

    The extreme heat days not only make cities less comfortable for living but also they are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Mapping studies have demonstrated spatial variability in heat vulnerability. A study conducted between 2000 and 2011 in New York City shows that deaths during heat waves was more likely to occur in black individuals, at home in census tracts which received greater public assistance. This map project intends to portray areas in San Jose California that are vulnerable to extreme heat events. The variables considered to build a vulnerability index are: land surface temperature, vegetated areas (NDVI), and people exposed to these area (population density).

  11. Simulating the Impacts of Climate Extremes Across Sectors: The Case of the 2003 European Heat Wave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, J.; Zhao, F.; Reyer, C.; Breuer, L.; Coll, M.; Deryng, D.; Eddy, T.; Elliott, J. W.; Francois, L. M.; Friend, A. D.; Gerten, D.; Gosling, S.; Gudmundsson, L.; Huber, V.; Kim, H.; Lotze, H. K.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Wada, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Increased occurrence of extreme climate or weather events is one of the most damaging consequences of global climate change today and in the future. Estimating the impacts of such extreme events across different human and natural systems is crucial for quantifying overall risks from climate change. Are current models fit for this task? Here we use the 2003 European heat wave and drought (EHW) as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, and evaluate how accurately its impacts are reproduced by a multi-sectoral "super-ensemble" of state-of-the-art impacts models. Our study combines, for the first time, impacts on agriculture, freshwater resources, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, energy, and human health in a consistent multi-model framework. We identify key impacts of the 2003 EHW reported in the literature and/or recorded in publicly available databases, and examine how closely the models reproduce those impacts, applying the same measure of impact magnitude across different sectors. Preliminary results are mixed: While the EHW's impacts on water resources (streamflow) are reproduced well by most global hydrological models, not all crop and natural vegetation models reproduce the magnitude of impacts on agriculture and ecosystem productivity, respectively, and their performance varies by country or region. A hydropower capacity model matches reported hydropower generation anomalies only in some countries, and estimates of heat-related excess mortality from a set of statistical models are consistent with literature reports only for some of the cities investigated. We present a synthesis of simulated and observed impacts across sectors, and reflect on potential improvements in modeling and analyzing cross-sectoral impacts.

  12. The future of western societies: multicultural identity or extreme nationalism?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Veer, C.G.

    2003-01-01

    The Y2K study assumed that ideas about the future among the young generation might tell something about the direction of that future, since it would be increasingly in charge. The respondents in 1967 tended to hope for more equality (classes, genders, nations, races) but were pessimistic in their

  13. Plasma heating - a comparative overview for future applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilhelm, R.

    1989-01-01

    Successful plasma heating is essential in present fusion experiments, for the demonstration of D-T burn in future devices and finally for the fusion reactor itself. This paper discusses the common heating system with respect to their present performance and their applicability to future fusion devices. The comparative discussion is oriented to the various functions of heating, which are: Plasma heating to fusion-relevant parameters and to ignition in future machines, non-inductive, steady-state current drive, plasma profile control, neutral gas breakdown and plasma build-up. In view of these different functions, the potential of neutral beam injection (NBI) and the various schemes of wave heating (ECRH, LH, ICRH and Alfven wave heating) is analyzed in more detail. The analysis includes assessments of the present physical and technical state of these heating methods, and makes suggestions for future developments and about outstanding problems. Specific attention is given to the still critical problem of efficient current drive, especially with respect to further extrapolation towards an economically operating tokamak reactor. Remarks on issues such as reliability, maintenance and economy conclude this comparative overview on plasma heating systems. (orig.)

  14. Exposure to extreme heat and precipitation events associated with increased risk of hospitalization for asthma in Maryland, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soneja, Sutyajeet; Jiang, Chengsheng; Fisher, Jared; Upperman, Crystal Romeo; Mitchell, Clifford; Sapkota, Amir

    2016-04-27

    Several studies have investigated the association between asthma exacerbations and exposures to ambient temperature and precipitation. However, limited data exists regarding how extreme events, projected to grow in frequency, intensity, and duration in the future in response to our changing climate, will impact the risk of hospitalization for asthma. The objective of our study was to quantify the association between frequency of extreme heat and precipitation events and increased risk of hospitalization for asthma in Maryland between 2000 and 2012. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design to examine the association between exposure to extreme heat and precipitation events and risk of hospitalization for asthma (ICD-9 code 493, n = 115,923). Occurrence of extreme heat events in Maryland increased the risk of same day hospitalization for asthma (lag 0) by 3 % (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.03, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 1.00, 1.07), with a considerably higher risk observed for extreme heat events that occur during summer months (OR: 1.23, 95 % CI: 1.15, 1.33). Likewise, summertime extreme precipitation events increased the risk of hospitalization for asthma by 11 % in Maryland (OR: 1.11, 95 % CI: 1.06, 1.17). Across age groups, increase in risk for asthma hospitalization from exposure to extreme heat event during the summer months was most pronounced among youth and adults, while those related to extreme precipitation event was highest among ≤4 year olds. Exposure to extreme heat and extreme precipitation events, particularly during summertime, is associated with increased risk of hospitalization for asthma in Maryland. Our results suggest that projected increases in frequency of extreme heat and precipitation event will have significant impact on public health.

  15. Low Temperature District Heating for Future Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ford, Rufus; Pietruschka, Dirk; Sipilä, Kari

    participants being VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT), Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Stuttgart Technology University of Applied Sciences (HFT) and SSE Enterprise in United Kingdom. The demonstration cases described in the report......This report titled “Case studies and demonstrations” is the subtask D report of the IEA DHC|CHP Annex TS1 project “Low Temperature District Heating for Future Energy Systems” carried out between 2013 and 2016. The project was led by Fraunhofer Institute for Building Physics (IBP) with the other...... include examples on low temperature district heating systems, solar heating in a district heating system, heat pump based heat supply and energy storages for both peak load management and for seasonal heat storage. Some demonstrations have been implemented while others are at planning phase...

  16. Solar/electric heating systems for the future energy system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Furbo, S.; Dannemand, M.; Perers, B. [and others

    2013-05-15

    The aim of the project is to elucidate how individual heating units for single family houses are best designed in order to fit into the future energy system. The units are based on solar energy, electrical heating elements/heat pump, advanced heat storage tanks and advanced control systems. Heat is produced by solar collectors in sunny periods and by electrical heating elements/heat pump. The electrical heating elements/heat pump will be in operation in periods where the heat demand cannot be covered by solar energy. The aim is to use the auxiliary heating units when the electricity price is low, e.g. due to large electricity production by wind turbines. The unit is equipped with an advanced control system where the control of the auxiliary heating is based on forecasts of the electricity price, the heat demand and the solar energy production. Consequently, the control is based on weather forecasts. Three differently designed heating units are tested in a laboratory test facility. The systems are compared on the basis of: 1) energy consumption for the auxiliary heating; 2) energy cost for the auxiliary heating; 3) net utilized solar energy. Starting from a normal house a solar combi system (for hot water and house heating) can save 20-30% energy cost, alone, depending on sizing of collector area and storage volume. By replacing the heat storage with a smart tank based on electric heating elements and a smart control based on weather/load forecast and electricity price information 24 hours ahead, another 30-40% can be saved. That is: A solar heating system with a solar collector area of about 10 m{sup 2}, a smart tank based on electric heating element and a smart control system, can reduce the energy costs of the house by at least 50%. No increase of heat storage volume is needed to utilize the smart control. The savings in % are similar for different levels of building insulation. As expected a heat pump in the system can further reduce the auxiliary electricity

  17. Temporal Compounding of Heat Waves in the Present and Projected Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, J. W.; Dessy, J.; Vecchi, G. A.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2017-12-01

    The hazard of heat waves is projected to increase significantly with global warming, motivating much recent research characterizing various aspects of these extreme events. One less examined aspect of heat waves is their temporal structure. Here we first modify existing heat wave duration definitions to flexibly account for a variety of possible heat wave temporal structures (sequences of hot and cooler days). We then examine past heat waves associated with high mortality using observational reanalysis data, and note that many past heat waves might be better described as series of hot days compounded together with short breaks of cooler days in between. We employ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate model (GCM) simulations to compare the frequency of these compound heat waves in the present and projected future with higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our results indicate that temporally compound heatwaves will constitute a greater proportion of heat wave risk with global warming. Via examining synthetic autoregressive model data, we propose that this phenomenon is expected when shifting the mean of a time series with some memory and noise. Notably, an increased proportion of compound events implies that vulnerability from prior hot days will play an increasingly large role in heat wave risk, with possible implications for both heat wave-related policy and preparedness.

  18. Beryllium armoured target for extreme heat and neutron loading conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazul, I.; Gervash, A.; Giniyatulin, R.

    2004-01-01

    Beryllium is a primary candidate as a target material for high-energy protons conversion into neutrons used for different applications. In order to get higher neutron flux the conversion area has to be minimized - in our case the target is limited by 1-2 liter volume. This target generates about 5·10 13 fast neutrons per second and removes of 150 kW thermal power deposited by proton beam (30 mA, 5 MeV), coming from linac. The operational condition of the converter is close to the condition of Be-armored components in fusion reactors: high thermal and neutron fluxes and active cooling. Therefore achievements in development of water-cooled high heat flux components for fusion application can be used for design of Be converter and vice versa. However for medical application the using of high-activated heat sink materials such as Cu and SS is strongly limited. So, new materials (Be, Al, Zr) and new joining technologies in comparison with the achievements in fusion area have to be used for construction of such Be converter. In order to reduce amount of heat sink materials in the target saddle-block geometry for Be armor is suggested and developed. Results of R and D works on the development of water cooled Be target for converter are presented, including data on selected materials, technological trials and mockups high heat flux testing. Preliminary design of Be neutron converter for medical applications based on R and D results is presented. (author)

  19. A non-equilibrium model for soil heating and moisture transport during extreme surface heating: The soil (heat-moisture-vapor) HMV-Model Version

    Science.gov (United States)

    William Massman

    2015-01-01

    Increased use of prescribed fire by land managers and the increasing likelihood of wildfires due to climate change require an improved modeling capability of extreme heating of soils during fires. This issue is addressed here by developing and testing the soil (heat-moisture-vapor) HMVmodel, a 1-D (one-dimensional) non-equilibrium (liquid- vapor phase change)...

  20. Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases, the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time-span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

  1. The future of the low temperature district heating reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Yingzhong; Wang Dazhong; Ma Changwen; Dong Duo; Tian Jiafu.

    1984-01-01

    In this paper, the role, development and situation of the low temperature district heating reactor (LTDHR) are briefly summarized. There are four types of LTDHR. They are PWR, reactor with boiling in the chimney, organic reactor and swimming pool reactor. The features of these reactors are introduced. The situation and role of the LTDHR in the future of the energy system are also discussed. The experiment on nuclear district heating with the swimming pool reactor in Qinghua Univ. is described briefly. (Author)

  2. Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Zacharias

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The influence of future climate change on the occurrence of heat waves and its implications for heat wave-related mortality due to ischemic heart diseases (IHD in Germany is studied. Simulations of 19 regional climate models with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° forced by the moderate climate change scenario A1B are analyzed. Three model time periods of 30 years are evaluated, representing present climate (1971–2000, near future climate (2021–2050, and remote future climate (2069–2098. Heat waves are defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with daily mean air temperature above the 97.5th percentile of the all-season temperature distribution. Based on the model simulations, future heat waves in Germany will be significantly more frequent, longer lasting and more intense. By the end of the 21st century, the number of heat waves will be tripled compared to present climate. Additionally, the average duration of heat waves will increase by 25%, accompanied by an increase of the average temperature during heat waves by about 1 K. Regional analyses show that stronger than average climate change effects are observed particularly in the southern regions of Germany. Furthermore, we investigated climate change impacts on IHD mortality in Germany applying temperature projections from 19 regional climate models to heat wave mortality relationships identified in a previous study. Future IHD excess deaths were calculated both in the absence and presence of some acclimatization (i.e., that people are able to physiologically acclimatize to enhanced temperature levels in the future time periods by 0% and 50%, respectively. In addition to changes in heat wave frequency, we incorporated also changes in heat wave intensity and duration into the future mortality evaluations. The results indicate that by the end of the 21st century the annual number of IHD excess deaths in Germany attributable to heat waves is expected to rise by factor 2

  3. Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2017-04-01

    Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

  4. Analysis of the Dynamic Evolutionary Behavior of American Heating Oil Spot and Futures Price Fluctuation Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Chen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Heating oil is an extremely important heating fuel to consumers in northeastern United States. This paper studies the fluctuations law and dynamic behavior of heating oil spot and futures prices by setting up their complex network models based on the data of America in recent 30 years. Firstly, modes are defined by the method of coarse graining, the spot price fluctuation network of heating oil (HSPFN and its futures price fluctuation network (HFPFN in different periods are established to analyze the transformation characteristics between the modes. Secondly, several indicators are investigated: average path length, node strength and strength distribution, betweeness, etc. In addition, a function is established to measure and analyze the network similarity. The results show the cumulative time of new nodes appearing in either spot or futures price network is not random but exhibits a growth trend of straight line. Meanwhile, the power law distributions of spot and futures price fluctuations in different periods present regularity and complexity. Moreover, these prices are strongly correlated in stable fluctuation period but weak in the phase of sharp fluctuation. Finally, the time distribution characteristics of important modes in the networks and the evolution results of the topological properties mentioned above are obtained.

  5. Mean versus extreme climate in the Mediterranean region and its sensitivity to future global warming conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paeth, H.; Hense, A. [Meteorological Inst., Univ. Bonn (Germany)

    2005-06-01

    The Mediterranean region (MTR) has been supposed to be very sensitive to changes in land surface and atmospheric greenhouse-gas (GHG) concentrations. Particularly, an intensification of climate extremes may be associated with severe socio-economic implications. Here, we present an analysis of climate mean and extreme conditions in this subtropical area based on regional climate model experiments, simulating the present-day and possible future climate. The analysis of extreme values (EVs) is based on the assumption that the extremes of daily precipitation and near-surface temperature are well fitted by the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Return values of extreme daily events are determined using the method of L-moments. Particular emphasis is laid on the evaluation of the return values with respect to the uncertainty range of the estimate as derived from a Monte Carlo sampling approach. During the most recent 25 years the MTR has become dryer in spring but more humid especially in the western part in autumn and winter. At the same time, the whole region has been subject to a substantial warming. The strongest rainfall extremes are simulated in autumn over the Mediterranean Sea around Italy. Temperature extremes are most pronounced over the land masses, especially over northern Africa. Given the large uncertainty of the EV estimate, only 1-year return values are further analysed. During recent decades, statistically significant changes in extremes are only found for temperature. Future climate conditions may come along with a decrease in mean and extreme precipitation during the cold season, whereas an intensification of the hydrological cycle is predicted in summer and autumn. Temperature is predominantly affected over the Iberian Peninsula and the eastern part of the MTR. In many grid boxes, the signals are blurred out due to the large amount of uncertainty in the EV estimate. Thus, a careful analysis is required when making inferences about the future

  6. Connecting people and place: a new framework for reducing urban vulnerability to extreme heat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilhelmi, Olga V; Hayden, Mary H

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is predicted to increase the intensity and negative impacts of urban heat events, prompting the need to develop preparedness and adaptation strategies that reduce societal vulnerability to extreme heat. Analysis of societal vulnerability to extreme heat events requires an interdisciplinary approach that includes information about weather and climate, the natural and built environment, social processes and characteristics, interactions with stakeholders, and an assessment of community vulnerability at a local level. In this letter, we explore the relationships between people and places, in the context of urban heat stress, and present a new research framework for a multi-faceted, top-down and bottom-up analysis of local-level vulnerability to extreme heat. This framework aims to better represent societal vulnerability through the integration of quantitative and qualitative data that go beyond aggregate demographic information. We discuss how different elements of the framework help to focus attention and resources on more targeted health interventions, heat hazard mitigation and climate adaptation strategies.

  7. Increased hospital admissions associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1990-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaksen, Tania Busch; Yost, Michael G; Hom, Elizabeth K; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Fenske, Richard A

    2015-01-01

    Increased morbidity and mortality have been associated with extreme heat events, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the impact of extreme heat events on hospitalization rates in the Pacific Northwest region. This study quantifies the historic (May to September 1990-2010) heat-morbidity relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the association between heat and all non-traumatic hospitalizations on 99th percentile heat days, whereas a time series analysis using a piecewise linear model approximation was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on hospitalizations, adjusted for temporal trends and day of the week. A non-statistically significant 2% [95% CI: 1.02 (0.98, 1.05)] increase in hospitalization risk, on a heat day vs. a non-heat day, was noted for all-ages and all non-traumatic causes. When considering the effect of heat intensity on admissions, we found a statistically significant 1.59% (95% CI: 0.9%, 2.29%) increase in admissions per degree increase in humidex above 37.4°C. Admissions stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results with both relative risk and time series analyses for nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure, and natural heat exposure hospitalizations. This study demonstrates that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased hospital admissions. When stratified by age and cause of admission, the non-elderly age groups (<85 years) experience significant risk for nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure, natural heat exposure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and asthma hospitalizations.

  8. Future Services for District Heating Solutions in Residential Districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannele Ahvenniemi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The underlying assumption of this study is that in order to retain the competitiveness while reaching for the EU targets regarding low-energy construction, district heating companies need to develop new business and service models. How district heating companies could broaden their perspective and switch to a more service-oriented way of thinking is a key interest of our research. The used methods in our study are house builder interviews and a questionnaire. With the help of these methods we discussed the potential interest in heating related services acquiring a comprehensive understanding of the customer needs. The results indicate the importance of certain criteria when choosing the heating system in households: easiness, comfort and affordability seem to dominate the house builders’ preferences. Also environmental awareness seems to be for many an important factor when making a decision about the heating of the house. Altogether, based on the results of this study, we suggest that the prospects of district heating could benefit from highlighting certain aspects and strengths in the future. District heating companies need to increase flexibility, readiness to adopt new services, to invest in new marketing strategies and improving the communication skills.

  9. Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

    2007-01-01

    -90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...

  10. The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobell, David B.; Hammer, Graeme L.; McLean, Greg; Messina, Carlos; Roberts, Michael J.; Schlenker, Wolfram

    2013-05-01

    Statistical studies of rainfed maize yields in the United States and elsewhere have indicated two clear features: a strong negative yield response to accumulation of temperatures above 30°C (or extreme degree days (EDD)), and a relatively weak response to seasonal rainfall. Here we show that the process-based Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is able to reproduce both of these relationships in the Midwestern United States and provide insight into underlying mechanisms. The predominant effects of EDD in APSIM are associated with increased vapour pressure deficit, which contributes to water stress in two ways: by increasing demand for soil water to sustain a given rate of carbon assimilation, and by reducing future supply of soil water by raising transpiration rates. APSIM computes daily water stress as the ratio of water supply to demand, and during the critical month of July this ratio is three times more responsive to 2°C warming than to a 20% precipitation reduction. The results suggest a relatively minor role for direct heat stress on reproductive organs at present temperatures in this region. Effects of elevated CO2 on transpiration efficiency should reduce yield sensitivity to EDD in the coming decades, but at most by 25%.

  11. Observed changes in seasonal heat waves and warm temperature extremes in the Romanian Carpathians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micu, Dana; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin

    2015-04-01

    Extreme high temperature have a large impact on environment and human activities, especially in high elevation areas particularly sensitive to the recent climate warming. The climate of the Romanian Carpathians became warmer particularly in winter, spring and summer, exibiting a significant increasing frequency of warm extremes. The paper investigates the seasonal changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in relation to the shifts in the daily distribution of maximum temperatures over a 50-year period of meteorological observations (1961-2010). The paper uses the heat wave definition recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and exploits the gridded daily dataset of maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) developed in the framework of the CarpatClim project (www.carpatclim.eu). The seasonal changes in heat waves behavior were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The results suggest an increase in heat wave frequency and a lengthening of intervals affected by warm temperature extremes all over the study region, which are explained by the shifts in the upper (extreme) tail of the daily maximum temperature distribution in most seasons. The trends are consistent across the region and are well correlated to the positive phases of the East Atlantic Oscillation. Our results are in good agreement with the previous temperature-related studies concerning the Carpathian region. This study was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM, financed by UEFISCDI, code PN-II 151/2014.

  12. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

    2013-07-29

    With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  13. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alana Hansen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective: The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Design: Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results: Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion: More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  14. Future Simulated Intensification of Precipitation Extremes, CMIP5 Model Uncertainties and Dependencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bador, M.; Donat, M.; Geoffroy, O.; Alexander, L. V.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation intensity during extreme events is expected to increase with climate change. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 climate models project a general increase in annual extreme precipitation in most regions. We investigate how robust this future increase is across different models, regions and seasons. We find that there is strong similarity in extreme precipitation changes between models that share atmospheric physics, reducing the ensemble of 27 models to 14 independent projections. We find that future simulated extreme precipitation increases in most models in the majority of land grid cells located in the dry, intermediate and wet regions according to each model's precipitation climatology. These increases significantly exceed the range of natural variability estimated from long equilibrium control runs. The intensification of extreme precipitation across the entire spectrum of dry to wet regions is particularly robust in the extra-tropics in both wet and dry season, whereas uncertainties are larger in the tropics. The CMIP5 ensemble therefore indicates robust future intensification of annual extreme rainfall in particular in extra-tropical regions. Generally, the CMIP5 robustness is higher during the dry season compared to the wet season and the annual scale, but inter-model uncertainties in the tropics remain important.

  15. The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Martín, M. Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A.; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

    2014-07-01

    This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

  16. Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

    2009-09-01

    It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As direct GCM-output significantly underestimates the variance of daily surface temperature variables in NW Spain, these variables are obtained by applying a statistical downscaling technique (analog method), using 850hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure as combined predictors. The predictor fields have been extracted from three GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4 under A1, A1B and A2 scenarios. The definitions of the extreme indices have been taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparisons of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: less nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic

  17. Extreme heat and cultural and linguistic minorities in Australia: perceptions of stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite acclimatisation to hot weather, many individuals in Australia are adversely affected by extreme heat each summer, placing added pressure on the health sector. In terms of public health, it is therefore important to identify vulnerable groups, particularly in the face of a warming climate. International evidence points to a disparity in heat-susceptibility in certain minority groups, although it is unknown if this occurs in Australia. With cultural diversity increasing, the aim of this study was to explore how migrants from different cultural backgrounds and climate experiences manage periods of extreme heat in Australia. Methods A qualitative study was undertaken across three Australian cities, involving interviews and focus groups with key informants including stakeholders involved in multicultural service provision and community members. Thematic analysis and a framework approach were used to analyse the data. Results Whilst migrants and refugees generally adapt well upon resettlement, there are sociocultural barriers encountered by some that hinder environmental adaptation to periods of extreme heat in Australia. These barriers include socioeconomic disadvantage and poor housing, language barriers to the access of information, isolation, health issues, cultural factors and lack of acclimatisation. Most often mentioned as being at risk were new arrivals, people in new and emerging communities, and older migrants. Conclusions With increasing diversity within populations, it is important that the health sector is aware that during periods of extreme heat there may be disparities in the adaptive capacity of minority groups, underpinned by sociocultural and language-based vulnerabilities in migrants and refugees. These factors need to be considered by policymakers when formulating and disseminating heat health strategies. PMID:24889099

  18. Extreme heat and cultural and linguistic minorities in Australia: perceptions of stakeholders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Alana; Nitschke, Monika; Saniotis, Arthur; Benson, Jill; Tan, Yan; Smyth, Val; Wilson, Leigh; Han, Gil-Soo; Mwanri, Lillian; Bi, Peng

    2014-06-03

    Despite acclimatisation to hot weather, many individuals in Australia are adversely affected by extreme heat each summer, placing added pressure on the health sector. In terms of public health, it is therefore important to identify vulnerable groups, particularly in the face of a warming climate. International evidence points to a disparity in heat-susceptibility in certain minority groups, although it is unknown if this occurs in Australia. With cultural diversity increasing, the aim of this study was to explore how migrants from different cultural backgrounds and climate experiences manage periods of extreme heat in Australia. A qualitative study was undertaken across three Australian cities, involving interviews and focus groups with key informants including stakeholders involved in multicultural service provision and community members. Thematic analysis and a framework approach were used to analyse the data. Whilst migrants and refugees generally adapt well upon resettlement, there are sociocultural barriers encountered by some that hinder environmental adaptation to periods of extreme heat in Australia. These barriers include socioeconomic disadvantage and poor housing, language barriers to the access of information, isolation, health issues, cultural factors and lack of acclimatisation. Most often mentioned as being at risk were new arrivals, people in new and emerging communities, and older migrants. With increasing diversity within populations, it is important that the health sector is aware that during periods of extreme heat there may be disparities in the adaptive capacity of minority groups, underpinned by sociocultural and language-based vulnerabilities in migrants and refugees. These factors need to be considered by policymakers when formulating and disseminating heat health strategies.

  19. Some specific features of subcooled boiling heat transfer and crisis at extremely high heat flux densities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gotovsky, M.A.

    2001-01-01

    Forced convection boiling is the process used widely in a lot of industry branches including NPP. Heat transfer intensity under forced convection boiling is considered in different way in dependence on conditions. One of main problems for the process considered is an influence of interaction between forced flow and boiling on heat transfer character. For saturated water case a transition from ''pure'' forced convection to nucleate boiling can be realized in smooth form. (author)

  20. Effects of extreme heat and drought on trees: what do we know and what do we need to know?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teskey, R. O.

    2017-12-01

    It is almost certain that trees will experience heat waves and droughts during their lifetime. In response, they have acquired many adaptations to survive these periods of intense stress. For example, recently we have investigated the surprising role that stomata play in maintaining leaf function at very high temperatures by opening widely to cool the leaf even when photosynthesis is zero. This process and its trade-offs, as well as many other physiological and morphological responses to high temperatures, will be discussed. The current state of knowledge of the mechanisms trees use to cope with extreme drought, including leaf shedding, hydraulic architecture, carbohydrate storage, and changes in wood anatomy will be discussed. Examples of how the interactions between drought and heat affect trees also will be provided. Finally, an assessment of knowledge gaps and recommendations for future research will be provided.

  1. The role of district heating in future renewable energy systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik; Möller, Bernd; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2010-01-01

    Based on the case of Denmark, this paper analyses the role of district heating in future Renewable Energy Systems. At present, the share of renewable energy is coming close to 20 per cent. From such point of departure, the paper defines a scenario framework in which the Danish system is converted...... to 100 per cent Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in the year 2060 including reductions in space heating demands by 75 per cent. By use of a detailed energy system analysis of the complete national energy system, the consequences in relation to fuel demand, CO2 emissions and cost are calculated for various...... as in a potential future system based 100 per cent on renewable energy....

  2. Development of heat and drought related extreme weather events and their effect on winter wheat yields in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lüttger, Andrea B.; Feike, Til

    2018-04-01

    Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990 to 2001-2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991-2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong

  3. Future changes in Asian summer monsoon precipitation extremes as inferred from 20-km AGCM simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lui, Yuk Sing; Tam, Chi-Yung; Lau, Ngar-Cheung

    2018-04-01

    This study examines the impacts of climate change on precipitation extremes in the Asian monsoon region during boreal summer, based on simulations from the 20-km Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model. The model can capture the summertime monsoon rainfall, with characteristics similar to those from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation. By comparing the 2075-2099 with the present-day climate simulations, there is a robust increase of the mean rainfall in many locations due to a warmer climate. Over southeastern China, the Baiu rainband, Bay of Bengal and central India, extreme precipitation rates are also enhanced in the future, which can be inferred from increases of the 95th percentile of daily precipitation, the maximum accumulated precipitation in 5 consecutive days, the simple daily precipitation intensity index, and the scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution. In these regions, with the exception of the Baiu rainband, most of these metrics give a fractional change of extreme rainfall per degree increase of the lower-tropospheric temperature of 5 to 8.5% K-1, roughly consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, over the Baiu area extreme precipitation change scales as 3.5% K-1 only. We have also stratified the rainfall data into those associated with tropical cyclones (TC) and those with other weather systems. The AGCM gives an increase of the accumulated TC rainfall over southeastern China, and a decrease in southern Japan in the future climate. The latter can be attributed to suppressed TC occurrence in southern Japan, whereas increased accumulated rainfall over southeastern China is due to more intense TC rain rate under global warming. Overall, non-TC weather systems are the main contributor to enhanced precipitation extremes in various locations. In the future, TC activities over southeastern China tend to further

  4. Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.

    2013-01-01

    Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but

  5. Future changes of temperature and heat waves in Ontario, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Wendy; Lin, Qianguo; Liao, Renfei; Fan, Yurui

    2018-05-01

    Apparent changes in the temperature patterns in recent years brought many challenges to the province of Ontario, Canada. As the need for adapting to climate change challenges increases, the development of reliable climate projections becomes a crucial task. In this study, a regional climate modeling system, Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS), is used to simulate the temperature patterns in Ontario. Three PRECIS runs with a resolution of 25 km × 25 km are carried out to simulate the present (1961-1990) temperature variations. There is a good match between the simulated and observed data, which validates the performance of PRECIS in reproducing temperature changes in Ontario. Future changes of daily maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures during the period 2071-2100 are then projected under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios using PRECIS. Spatial variations of annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, and temperature seasonality are generated. Furthermore, heat waves defined based on the exceedance of local climatology and their temporal and spatial characteristics are analyzed. The results indicate that the highest temperature and the most intensive heat waves are most likely to occur at the Toronto-Windsor corridor in Southern Ontario. The Northern Ontario, in spite of the relatively low projected temperature, would be under the risk of long-lasting heat waves, and thus needs effective measures to enhance its climate resilience in the future. This study can assist the decision makers in better understanding the future temperature changes in Ontario and provide decision support for mitigating heat-related loss.

  6. Increased mortality associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1980-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaksen, Tania Busch; Fenske, Richard A.; Hom, Elizabeth K.; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Yost, Michael G.

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat has been associated with increased mortality, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the Pacific Northwest region in their analyses. This study quantified the historical (May to September, 1980-2010) heat-mortality relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis, using a piece-wise linear model fit, was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on mortality, adjusted for temporal trends. For all ages, all causes, we found a 10 % (1.10 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.06, 1.14)) increase in the risk of death on a heat day versus non-heat day. When considering the intensity effect of heat on all-cause mortality, we found a 1.69 % (95 % CI, 0.69, 2.70) increase in the risk of death per unit of humidex above 36.0 °C. Mortality stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results using both types of analyses for: all-cause, non-traumatic, circulatory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and diabetes causes of death. All-cause mortality was statistically significantly modified by the type of synoptic weather type. These results demonstrate that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased mortality on heat days, and that risk increases with heat's intensity. While age was the only individual-level characteristic found to modify mortality risks, statistically significant increases in diabetes-related mortality for the 45-64 age group suggests that underlying health status may contribute to these risks.

  7. Heat balance structure of canopies at extreme precipitation in view of long-term records

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bubnowska, J.; Gąsiorek, E.; Łabędzki, L.; Musiał, E.

    2005-01-01

    Increasing frequency of extreme weather conditions is attributed to the global variations in climate. Heat balance of substrate is one of the processes affecting the climate. Variations of heat balance in spring wheat during the growing seasons (April-August) and in potatoes during the growing seasons (May-September) with maximal and minimal precipitation are confronted here with long term changes of the balance. Two regions Wroclaw-Swojec (1964-2000) and Bydgoszcz (1945-2003) were involved in the study [pl

  8. Regional air-sea coupled model simulation for two types of extreme heat in North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Donghuan; Zou, Liwei; Zhou, Tianjun

    2018-03-01

    Extreme heat (EH) over North China (NC) is affected by both large scale circulations and local topography, and could be categorized into foehn favorable and no-foehn types. In this study, the performance of a regional coupled model in simulating EH over NC was examined. The effects of regional air-sea coupling were also investigated by comparing the results with the corresponding atmosphere-alone regional model. On foehn favorable (no-foehn) EH days, a barotropic cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly is located to the northeast (northwest) of NC, while anomalous northwesterlies (southeasterlies) prevail over NC in the lower troposphere. In the uncoupled simulation, barotropic anticyclonic bias occurs over China on both foehn favorable and no-foehn EH days, and the northwesterlies in the lower troposphere on foehn favorable EH days are not obvious. These biases are significantly reduced in the regional coupled simulation, especially on foehn favorable EH days with wind anomalies skill scores improving from 0.38 to 0.47, 0.47 to 0.61 and 0.38 to 0.56 for horizontal winds at 250, 500 and 850 hPa, respectively. Compared with the uncoupled simulation, the reproduction of the longitudinal position of Northwest Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) and the spatial pattern of the low-level monsoon flow over East Asia are improved in the coupled simulation. Therefore, the anticyclonic bias over China is obviously reduced, and the proportion of EH days characterized by anticyclonic anomaly is more appropriate. The improvements in the regional coupled model indicate that it is a promising choice for the future projection of EH over NC.

  9. Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging of Electron Heated Targets in Petawatt Laser Experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, T.; MacPhee, A.; Key, M.; Akli, K.; Mackinnon, A.; Chen, C.; Barbee, T.; Freeman, R.; King, J.; Link, A.; Offermann, D.; Ovchinnikov, V.; Patel, P.; Stephens, R.; VanWoerkom, L.; Zhang, B.; Beg, F.

    2007-01-01

    The study of the transport of electrons, and the flow of energy into a solid target or dense plasma, is instrumental in the development of fast ignition inertial confinement fusion. An extreme ultraviolet (XUV) imaging diagnostic at 256 eV and 68 eV provides information about heating and energy deposition within petawatt laser-irradiated targets. XUV images of several irradiated solid targets are presented

  10. Liquid jet impingement cooling with diamond substrates for extremely high heat flux applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lienhard V, J.H.

    1993-01-01

    The combination of impinging jets and diamond substrates may provide an effective solution to a class of extremely high heat flux problems in which very localized heat loads must be removed. Some potential applications include the cooling of high-heat-load components in synchrotron x-ray, fusion, and semiconductor laser systems. Impinging liquid jets are a very effective vehicle for removing high heat fluxes. The liquid supply arrangement is relatively simple, and low thermal resistances can be routinely achieved. A jet's cooling ability is a strong function of the size of the cooled area relative to the jet diameter. For relatively large area targets, the critical heat fluxes can approach 20 W/mm 2 . In this situation, burnout usually originates at the outer edge of the cooled region as increasing heat flux inhibits the liquid supply. Limitations from liquid supply are minimized when heating is restricted to the jet stagnation zone. The high stagnation pressure and high velocity gradients appear to suppress critical flux phenomena, and fluxes of up to 400 W/mm 2 have been reached without evidence of burnout. Instead, the restrictions on heat flux are closely related to properties of the cooled target. Target properties become an issue owing to the large temperatures and large temperature gradients that accompany heat fluxes over 100 W/mm 2 . These conditions necessitate a target with both high thermal conductivity to prevent excessive temperatures and good mechanical properties to prevent mechanical failures. Recent developments in synthetic diamond technology present a possible solution to some of the solid-side constraints on heat flux. Polycrystalline diamond foils can now be produced by chemical vapor deposition in reasonable quantity and at reasonable cost. Synthetic single crystal diamonds as large as 1 cm 2 are also available

  11. Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Matthews

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available It is thought that direct personal experience of extreme weather events could result in greater public engagement and policy response to climate change. Based on this premise, we present a set of future climate scenarios for Ireland communicated in the context of recent, observed extremes. Specifically, we examine the changing likelihood of extreme seasonal conditions in the long-term observational record, and explore how frequently such extremes might occur in a changed Irish climate according to the latest model projections. Over the period (1900–2014 records suggest a greater than 50-fold increase in the likelihood of the warmest recorded summer (1995, whilst the likelihood of the wettest winter (1994/95 and driest summer (1995 has respectively doubled since 1850. The most severe end-of-century climate model projections suggest that summers as cool as 1995 may only occur once every ∼7 years, whilst winters as wet as 1994/95 and summers as dry as 1995 may increase by factors of ∼8 and ∼10 respectively. Contrary to previous research, we find no evidence for increased wintertime storminess as the Irish climate warms, but caution that this conclusion may be an artefact of the metric employed. It is hoped that framing future climate scenarios in the context of extremes from living memory will help communicate the scale of the challenge climate change presents, and in so doing bridge the gap between climate scientists and wider society.

  12. Simple future weather files for estimating heating and cooling demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cox, Rimante Andrasiunaite; Drews, Martin; Rode, Carsten

    2015-01-01

    useful estimates of future energy demand of a building. Experimental results based on both the degree-day method and dynamic simulations suggest that this is indeed the case. Specifically, heating demand estimates were found to be within a few per cent of one another, while estimates of cooling demand...... were slightly more varied. This variation was primarily due to the very few hours of cooling that were required in the region examined. Errors were found to be most likely when the air temperatures were close to the heating or cooling balance points, where the energy demand was modest and even...... relatively large errors might thus result in only modest absolute errors in energy demand....

  13. Smart solar tanks - Heat storage of the future?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Furbo, Simon; Shah, Louise Jivan

    1997-01-01

    energy supply system to a required temperature in periods with hot water demand. The tank is heated by the auxiliary energy supply system from the top so that the volume of water heated to the required temperature can be controlled in a flexible way. In periods with a large hot water demand the volume...... can be large and in periods with a small hot water demand the volume can be small. For instance, the energy supply system can be controlled on measurements of the energy content of the tank during all hours of the week and based on a required hot water consumption and consumption pattern which can...... recommendations for future development work are given....

  14. Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN over Peninsular Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Syafrina

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF. New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081–2100. The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10–40 years.

  15. Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.

    2014-09-01

    A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

  16. Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

  17. Assessment of future extreme climate events over the Porto wine Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viceto, Carolina; Cardoso, Susana; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Rocha, Alfredo

    2017-04-01

    to be produced (Porto and Douro wine), while climate variability affects the annual productivity and quality of the grape harvest. Our study investigates changes in the extreme climate events in the future model runs, through a set of climate change indicators defined by the WRCP's Expert Team in Climate Change Detection and Indices, which uses variables such as daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation amounts. Furthermore, we explore heat waves and their properties (duration, intensity and recovery factor). The analysis shows an increase of the mean temperature in the DDR higher than 2°C by the mid-21st century and 4.5°C by the end of the century, relatively to the reference period. Moreover, we found a major predisposition towards higher values of minimum and maximum daily temperatures and a decrease in the total precipitation during both future periods. These preliminary results indicate increased climatic stress on the DDR wine production and increased vulnerability of the wine varieties in this region.

  18. The Future of Coral Reefs Subject to Rapid Climate Change: Lessons from Natural Extreme Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma F. Camp

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change and localized anthropogenic stressors are driving rapid declines in coral reef health. In vitro experiments have been fundamental in providing insight into how reef organisms will potentially respond to future climates. However, such experiments are inevitably limited in their ability to reproduce the complex interactions that govern reef systems. Studies examining coral communities that already persist under naturally-occurring extreme and marginal physicochemical conditions have therefore become increasingly popular to advance ecosystem scale predictions of future reef form and function, although no single site provides a perfect analog to future reefs. Here we review the current state of knowledge that exists on the distribution of corals in marginal and extreme environments, and geographic sites at the latitudinal extremes of reef growth, as well as a variety of shallow reef systems and reef-neighboring environments (including upwelling and CO2 vent sites. We also conduct a synthesis of the abiotic data that have been collected at these systems, to provide the first collective assessment on the range of extreme conditions under which corals currently persist. We use the review and data synthesis to increase our understanding of the biological and ecological mechanisms that facilitate survival and success under sub-optimal physicochemical conditions. This comprehensive assessment can begin to: (i highlight the extent of extreme abiotic scenarios under which corals can persist, (ii explore whether there are commonalities in coral taxa able to persist in such extremes, (iii provide evidence for key mechanisms required to support survival and/or persistence under sub-optimal environmental conditions, and (iv evaluate the potential of current sub-optimal coral environments to act as potential refugia under changing environmental conditions. Such a collective approach is critical to better understand the future survival of

  19. A Non-Stationary Approach for Estimating Future Hydroclimatic Extremes Using Monte-Carlo Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byun, K.; Hamlet, A. F.

    2017-12-01

    There is substantial evidence that observed hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods, extreme stormwater events, and low flows) are changing and that climate change will continue to alter the probability distributions of hydrologic extremes over time. These non-stationary risks imply that conventional approaches for designing hydrologic infrastructure (or making other climate-sensitive decisions) based on retrospective analysis and stationary statistics will become increasingly problematic through time. To develop a framework for assessing risks in a non-stationary environment our study develops a new approach using a super ensemble of simulated hydrologic extremes based on Monte Carlo (MC) methods. Specifically, using statistically downscaled future GCM projections from the CMIP5 archive (using the Hybrid Delta (HD) method), we extract daily precipitation (P) and temperature (T) at 1/16 degree resolution based on a group of moving 30-yr windows within a given design lifespan (e.g. 10, 25, 50-yr). Using these T and P scenarios we simulate daily streamflow using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model for each year of the design lifespan and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability distribution to the simulated annual extremes. MC experiments are then used to construct a random series of 10,000 realizations of the design lifespan, estimating annual extremes using the estimated unique GEV parameters for each individual year of the design lifespan. Our preliminary results for two watersheds in Midwest show that there are considerable differences in the extreme values for a given percentile between conventional MC and non-stationary MC approach. Design standards based on our non-stationary approach are also directly dependent on the design lifespan of infrastructure, a sensitivity which is notably absent from conventional approaches based on retrospective analysis. The experimental approach can be applied to a wide range of hydroclimatic variables of interest.

  20. Strategies to Reduce the Harmful Effects of Extreme Heat Events: A Four-City Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalonne L. White-Newsome

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Extreme heat events (EHEs are becoming more intense, more frequent and longer lasting in the 21st century. These events can disproportionately impact the health of low-income, minority, and urban populations. To better understand heat-related intervention strategies used by four U.S. cities, we conducted 73 semi-structured interviews with government and non-governmental organization leaders representing public health, general social services, emergency management, meteorology, and the environmental planning sectors in Detroit, MI; New York City, NY; Philadelphia, PA and Phoenix, AZ—cities selected for their diverse demographics, climates, and climate adaptation strategies. We identified activities these leaders used to reduce the harmful effects of heat for residents in their city, as well as the obstacles they faced and the approaches they used to evaluate these efforts. Local leaders provided a description of how local context (e.g., climate, governance and city structure impacted heat preparedness. Despite the differences among study cities, political will and resource access were critical to driving heat-health related programming. Upon completion of our interviews, we convened leaders in each city to discuss these findings and their ongoing efforts through day-long workshops. Our findings and the recommendations that emerged from these workshops could inform other local or national efforts towards preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality.

  1. Natural refrigerants. Future heat pumps for district heating; Naturliga koeldmedier. Framtida vaermepumpar foer fjaerrvaerme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ingvarsson, Paul; Steen Ronnermark, Ingela [Fortum Teknik och Miljoe AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Eriksson, Marcus [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Chemical Engineering and Environmental Science

    2004-01-01

    improvement in components, system and external preconditions. In the future it might be more interesting to use turbine driven heat pumps instead of electric motors. The absorption process is not considered to be an alternative to replace present heat pumps, but there is a certain niche where heat source and driving energy, considering temperature levels, are more suitable for district heating. A technique that seems to be an alternative to the compression cycle is a combination of compression and absorption. Using the media pair water and ammonia might be an interesting solution and should be compared to the alternative using carbon dioxide. A further study is recommended on this subject.

  2. Solar/electric heating systems for the future energy system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Furbo, Simon; Dannemand, Mark; Perers, Bengt

    elements/heat pump, advanced heat storage tanks and advanced control systems. Heat is produced by solar collectors in sunny periods and by electrical heating elements/heat pump. The electrical heating elements/heat pump will be in operation in periods where the heat demand cannot be covered by solar energy....... The aim is to use the auxiliary heating units when the electricity price is low, e.g. due to large electricity production by wind turbines. The unit is equipped with an advanced control system where the control of the auxiliary heating is based on forecasts of the electricity price, the heat demand...

  3. Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tölle, Merja H.; Schefczyk, Lukas; Gutjahr, Oliver

    2017-11-01

    A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5- and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 ∘C. Modeled future precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

  4. Computing the distribution of return levels of extreme warm temperatures for future climate projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pausader, M.; Parey, S.; Nogaj, M. [EDF/R and D, Chatou Cedex (France); Bernie, D. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2012-03-15

    In order to take into account uncertainties in the future climate projections there is a growing demand for probabilistic projections of climate change. This paper presents a methodology for producing such a probabilistic analysis of future temperature extremes. The 20- and 100-years return levels are obtained from that of the normalized variable and the changes in mean and standard deviation given by climate models for the desired future periods. Uncertainty in future change of these extremes is quantified using a multi-model ensemble and a perturbed physics ensemble. The probability density functions of future return levels are computed at a representative location from the joint probability distribution of mean and standard deviation changes given by the two combined ensembles of models. For the studied location, the 100-years return level at the end of the century is lower than 41 C with an 80% confidence. Then, as the number of model simulations is low to compute a reliable distribution, two techniques proposed in the literature (local pattern scaling and ANOVA) have been used to infer the changes in mean and standard deviation for the combinations of RCM and GCM which have not been run. The ANOVA technique leads to better results for the reconstruction of the mean changes, whereas the two methods fail to correctly infer the changes in standard deviation. As standard deviation change has a major impact on return level change, there is a need to improve the models and the different techniques regarding the variance changes. (orig.)

  5. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    KAUST Repository

    El-Samra, R.

    2017-02-15

    A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model’s ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

  6. Urban heat stress: novel survey suggests health and fitness as future avenue for research and adaptation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Christian; Honold, Jasmin; Lauf, Steffen; Lakes, Tobia

    2017-04-01

    Extreme heat has tremendous adverse effects on human health. Heat stress is expected to further increase due to urbanization, an aging population, and global warming. Previous research has identified correlations between extreme heat and mortality. However, the underlying physical, behavioral, environmental, and social risk factors remain largely unknown and comprehensive quantitative investigation on an individual level is lacking. We conducted a new cross-sectional household questionnaire survey to analyze individual heat impairment (self-assessed and reported symptoms) and a large set of potential risk factors in the city of Berlin, Germany. This unique dataset (n = 474) allows for the investigation of new relationships, especially between health/fitness and urban heat stress. Our analysis found previously undocumented associations, leading us to generate new hypotheses for future research: various health/fitness variables returned the strongest associations with individual heat stress. Our primary hypothesis is that age, the most commonly used risk factor, is outperformed by health/fitness as a dominant risk factor. Related variables seem to more accurately represent humans’ cardiovascular capacity to handle elevated temperature. Among them, active travel was associated with reduced heat stress. We observed statistical associations for heat exposure regarding the individual living space but not for the neighborhood environment. Heat stress research should further investigate individual risk factors of heat stress using quantitative methodologies. It should focus more on health and fitness and systematically explore their role in adaptation strategies. The potential of health and fitness to reduce urban heat stress risk means that encouraging active travel could be an effective adaptation strategy. Through reduced CO2 emissions from urban transport, societies could reap double rewards by addressing two root causes of urban heat stress: population health and

  7. Acquired thermotolerance and heat shock in the extremely thermophilic archaebacterium Sulfolobus sp. strain B12.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trent, J D; Osipiuk, J; Pinkau, T

    1990-03-01

    The extreme thermophile Sulfolobus sp. strain B12 exhibits an acquired thermotolerance response. Thus, survival of cells from a 70 degrees C culture at the lethal temperature of 92 degrees C was enhanced by as much as 6 orders of magnitude over a 2-h period if the culture was preheated to 88 degrees C for 60 min or longer before being exposed to the lethal temperature. In eubacteria and eucaryotes, acquired thermotolerance correlates with the induced synthesis of a dozen or so proteins known as heat shock proteins. In this Sulfolobus species, it correlates with the preferential synthesis of primarily one major protein (55 kilodaltons) and, to a much lesser extent, two minor proteins (28 and 35 kilodaltons). Since the synthesis of all other proteins was radically reduced and these proteins were apparently not degraded or exported, their relative abundance within the cell increased during the time the cells were becoming thermotolerant. They could not yet be related to known heat shock proteins. In immunoassays, they were not cross-reactive with antibodies against heat shock proteins from Escherichia coli (DnaK and GroE), which are highly conserved between eubacteria and eucaryotes. However, it appears that if acquired thermotolerance depends on the synthesis of protective proteins, then in this extremely thermophilic archaebacterium it depends primarily on one protein.

  8. Modeling nonstationary extreme wave heights in present and future climates of Greek Seas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panagiota Galiatsatou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV distribution function was used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum wave heights for selected locations in the Greek Seas, both in the present and future climates. The available significant wave height data were divided into groups corresponding to the present period (1951–2000, a first future period (2001–2050, and a second future period (2051–2100. For each time period, the parameters of the GEV distribution were specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN. For each location and selected time period, a total number of 29 linear and nonlinear models were fitted to the wave data, for a given combination of covariates. The covariates used in the GEV-CDN models consisted of wind fields resulting from the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3 developed by the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP with a spatial resolution of 10 km × 10 km, after being processed using principal component analysis (PCA. The results obtained from the best fitted models in the present and future periods for each location were compared, revealing different patterns of relationships between wind components and extreme wave height quantiles in different parts of the Greek Seas and different periods. The analysis demonstrates an increase of extreme wave heights in the first future period as compared with the present period, causing a significant threat to Greek coastal areas in the North Aegean Sea and the Ionian Sea.

  9. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and the Russia Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K.; Kim, K. M.

    2010-01-01

    The Pakistan flood and the Russia heat wave/Vvild fires of the summer of2010 were two of the most extreme, and catastrophic events in the histories of the two countries occurring at about the same time. To a casual observer, the timing may just be a random coincidence of nature, because the two events were separated by long distances, and represented opposite forces of nature, i.e., flood vs. drought, and water vs. fire. In this paper, using NASA satellite and NOAA reanalysis data, we presented observation evidences that that the two events were indeed physically connected.

  10. Climate extremes in urban area and their impact on human health: the summer heat waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldi, Marina

    2014-05-01

    In the period 1951-2012 the average global land and ocean temperature has increased by approximately 0.72°C [0.49-0.89] when described by a linear trend, and is projected to rapidly increase. Each of the past three decades has been warmer than all the previous decades, with the decade of the 2000's as the warmest, and, since 1880, nine of the ten warmest years are in the 21st century, the only exception being 1998, which was warmed by the strongest El Niño event of the past century. In parallel an increase in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot days is detected with differences at different scales, which represent an health risk specially in largely populated areas as documented for several regions in the world including the Euro-Mediterranean region. If it is still under discussion if heat wave episodes are a direct result of the warming of the lower troposphere, or if, more likely, they are a regional climate event, however heat episodes have been studied in order to define their correlation with large scale atmospheric patterns and with changes in the regional circulation. Whatever the causes and the spatio-temporal extension of the episodes, epidemiological studies show that these conditions pose increasing health risks inducing heat-related diseases including hyperthermia and heat stress, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses in susceptible individuals with a significant increase in morbidity and mortality especially in densely populated urban areas. In several Mediterranean cities peaks of mortality associated with extremely high temperature (with simultaneous high humidity levels) have been documented showing that, in some cases, a large increase in daily mortality has been reached compared to the average for the period. The number of fatalities during the summer 2003 heat wave in Europe was estimated to largely exceed the average value of some between 22000 and 50000 cases. In the same summer it was also unusually hot across much of Asia, and

  11. Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Development Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatapathy, Ethiraj; Ellerby, Don; Gage, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The Heat shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Project is a NASA STMD and SMD co-funded effort. The goal is to develop and mission infuse a new ablative Thermal Protection System that can withstand extreme entry. It is targeted to support NASA's high priority missions, as defined in the latest decadal survey, to destinations such as Venus and Saturn in-situ robotic science missions. Entry into these planetary atmospheres results in extreme heating. The entry peak heat-flux and associated pressure are estimated to be between one and two orders of magnitude higher than those experienced by Mars Science Laboratory or Lunar return missions. In the recent New Frontiers community announcement NASA has indicated that it is considering providing an increase to the PI managed mission cost (PIMMC) for investigations utilizing the Heat Shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) and in addition, NASA is considering limiting the risk assessment to only their accommodation on the spacecraft and the mission environment. The HEEET ablative TPS utilizes 3D weaving technology to manufacture a dual layer material architecture. The 3-D weaving allows for flat panels to be woven. The dual layer consists of a top layer designed to withstand the extreme external environment while the inner or insulating layer by design, is designed to achieve low thermal conductivity, and it keeps the heat from conducting towards the structure underneath. Both arc jet testing combined with material properties have been used to develop thermal response models that allows for comparison of performance with heritage carbon phenolic. A 50% mass efficiency is achieved by the dual layer construct compared to carbon phenolic for a broad range of missions both to Saturn and Venus. The 3-D woven flat preforms are molded to achieve the shape as they are compliant and then resin infusion with curing forms a rigid panels. These panels are then bonded on to the aeroshell structure. Gaps

  12. The other side of the coin: urban heat islands as shields from extreme cold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.; Bou-Zeid, E.

    2017-12-01

    Extensive studies focusing on urban heat islands (UHIs) during hot periods create a perception that UHIs are invariably hazardous to human health and the sustainability of cities. Consequently, cities have invested substantial resources to try to mitigate UHIs. These urban policies can have serious repercussions since the health risks associated with cold weather are in fact higher than for heat episodes, yet wintertime UHIs have hardly been explored. We combine ground observations from 12 U.S. cities and high-resolution simulations to show that UHIs not only warm urban areas in the winter, but also further intensify during cold waves by up to 1.32 ± 0.78 oC (mean ± standard deviation) at night. Urban heat islands serve as shelters against extreme colds and provide invaluable benefits of reducing health risks and heating demand. More importantly, our simulations indicate that standard UHI mitigation measures such as green or cool roofs reduce these cold time amenities to different extents. Cities, particularly in cool and cold temperate climates, should hence revisit policies and efforts that are only desgined for hot periods. A paradigm shift is urgently needed to give an equal weight to the wintertime benefits of UHIs in the sustainability and resilience blueprints of cities.

  13. Impacts of ozone air pollution and temperature extremes on crop yields: Spatial variability, adaptation and implications for future food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tai, Amos P. K.; Val Martin, Maria

    2017-11-01

    Ozone air pollution and climate change pose major threats to global crop production, with ramifications for future food security. Previous studies of ozone and warming impacts on crops typically do not account for the strong ozone-temperature correlation when interpreting crop-ozone or crop-temperature relationships, or the spatial variability of crop-to-ozone sensitivity arising from varietal and environmental differences, leading to potential biases in their estimated crop losses. Here we develop an empirical model, called the partial derivative-linear regression (PDLR) model, to estimate the spatial variations in the sensitivities of wheat, maize and soybean yields to ozone exposures and temperature extremes in the US and Europe using a composite of multidecadal datasets, fully correcting for ozone-temperature covariation. We find generally larger and more spatially varying sensitivities of all three crops to ozone exposures than are implied by experimentally derived concentration-response functions used in most previous studies. Stronger ozone tolerance is found in regions with high ozone levels and high consumptive crop water use, reflecting the existence of spatial adaptation and effect of water constraints. The spatially varying sensitivities to temperature extremes also indicate stronger heat tolerance in crops grown in warmer regions. The spatial adaptation of crops to ozone and temperature we find can serve as a surrogate for future adaptation. Using the PDLR-derived sensitivities and 2000-2050 ozone and temperature projections by the Community Earth System Model, we estimate that future warming and unmitigated ozone pollution can combine to cause an average decline in US wheat, maize and soybean production by 13%, 43% and 28%, respectively, and a smaller decline for European crops. Aggressive ozone regulation is shown to offset such decline to various extents, especially for wheat. Our findings demonstrate the importance of considering ozone regulation

  14. Climate Change and Health Risks from Extreme Heat and Air Pollution in the Eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limaye, V.; Vargo, J.; Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Patz, J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks from exposure to extreme heat and air pollution through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, warmer ambient temperatures promote biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and favor the formation of ground-level ozone, while an anticipated increase in the frequency of stagnant air masses will allow fine particulates to accumulate. Indirectly, warmer summertime temperatures stimulate energy demand and exacerbate polluting emissions from the electricity sector. Thus, while technological adaptations such as air conditioning can reduce risks from exposures to extreme heat, they can trigger downstream damage to air quality and public health. Through an interdisciplinary modeling effort, we quantify the impacts of climate change on ambient temperatures, summer energy demand, air quality, and public health. The first phase of this work explores how climate change will directly impact the burden of heat-related mortality. Climatic patterns, demographic trends, and epidemiologic risk models suggest that populations in the eastern United States are likely to experience an increasing heat stress mortality burden in response to rising summertime air temperatures. We use North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program modeling data to estimate mid-century 2-meter air temperatures and humidity across the eastern US from June-August, and quantify how long-term changes in actual and apparent temperatures from present-day will affect the annual burden of heat-related mortality across this region. With the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, we estimate health risks using concentration-response functions, which relate temperature increases to changes in annual mortality rates. We compare mid-century summertime temperature data, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to 2007 baseline temperatures at a 12 km resolution in order to estimate

  15. CAN A NANOFLARE MODEL OF EXTREME-ULTRAVIOLET IRRADIANCES DESCRIBE THE HEATING OF THE SOLAR CORONA?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tajfirouze, E.; Safari, H. [Department of Physics, University of Zanjan, P.O. Box 45195-313, Zanjan (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2012-01-10

    Nanoflares, the basic units of impulsive energy release, may produce much of the solar background emission. Extrapolation of the energy frequency distribution of observed microflares, which follows a power law to lower energies, can give an estimation of the importance of nanoflares for heating the solar corona. If the power-law index is greater than 2, then the nanoflare contribution is dominant. We model a time series of extreme-ultraviolet emission radiance as random flares with a power-law exponent of the flare event distribution. The model is based on three key parameters: the flare rate, the flare duration, and the power-law exponent of the flare intensity frequency distribution. We use this model to simulate emission line radiance detected in 171 A, observed by Solar Terrestrial Relation Observatory/Extreme-Ultraviolet Imager and Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly. The observed light curves are matched with simulated light curves using an Artificial Neural Network, and the parameter values are determined across the active region, quiet Sun, and coronal hole. The damping rate of nanoflares is compared with the radiative losses cooling time. The effect of background emission, data cadence, and network sensitivity on the key parameters of the model is studied. Most of the observed light curves have a power-law exponent, {alpha}, greater than the critical value 2. At these sites, nanoflare heating could be significant.

  16. Addressing extreme precipitation change under future climates in the Upper Yangtze River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.; Yuan, Z.; Gao, X.

    2017-12-01

    Investigating the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation accurately is of importance for application purposes such as flooding mitigation and urban drainage system design. In this paper, a systematical analysis framework to assess the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation events is developed and practiced in the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) in China. Firstly, the UYRB is gridded and five extreme precipitation indices (annual maximum 3- 5- 7- 15- and 30-day precipitation) are selected. Secondly, with observed precipitation from China's Ground Precipitation 0.5°×0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from ten general circulation models (GCMs) of CMIP5, A regionally efficient GCM is selected for each grid by the skill score (SS) method which maximizes the overlapped area of probability density functions of extreme precipitation indices between observations and simulations during the historical period. Then, simulations of assembled efficient GCMs are bias corrected by Equidistant Cumulative Distribution Function method. Finally, the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation is analyzed. The results show that: (1) the MRI-CGCM3 and MIROC-ESM perform better in the UYRB. There are 19.8 to 20.9% and 14.2 to 18.7% of all grids regard this two GCMs as regionally efficient GCM for the five indices, respectively. Moreover, the regionally efficient GCMs are spatially distributed. (2) The assembled GCM performs much better than any single GCM, with the SS>0.8 and SS>0.6 in more than 65 and 85 percent grids. (3) Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the extreme precipitation of 50-year and 100-year return period is projected to increase in most areas of the UYRB in the future period, with 55.0 to 61.3% of the UYRB increasing larger than 10 percent for the five indices. The changes are spatially and temporal distributed. The upstream region of the UYRB has a relatively significant increase compared to the downstream basin, while

  17. Decision strategies for handling the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall under the influence of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    Several extraordinary rainfall events have occurred in Denmark within the last few years. For each event, problems in urban areas occurred as the capacity of the existing drainage systems were exceeded. Adaptation to climate change is necessary but also very challenging as urban drainage systems...... are characterized by long technical lifetimes and high, unrecoverable construction costs. One of the most important barriers for the initiation and implementation of the adaptation strategies is therefore the uncertainty when predicting the magnitude of the extreme rainfall in the future. This challenge is explored...

  18. Novel Zero-Heat-Flux Deep Body Temperature Measurement in Lower Extremity Vascular and Cardiac Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäkinen, Marja-Tellervo; Pesonen, Anne; Jousela, Irma; Päivärinta, Janne; Poikajärvi, Satu; Albäck, Anders; Salminen, Ulla-Stina; Pesonen, Eero

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this study was to compare deep body temperature obtained using a novel noninvasive continuous zero-heat-flux temperature measurement system with core temperatures obtained using conventional methods. A prospective, observational study. Operating room of a university hospital. The study comprised 15 patients undergoing vascular surgery of the lower extremities and 15 patients undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. Zero-heat-flux thermometry on the forehead and standard core temperature measurements. Body temperature was measured using a new thermometry system (SpotOn; 3M, St. Paul, MN) on the forehead and with conventional methods in the esophagus during vascular surgery (n = 15), and in the nasopharynx and pulmonary artery during cardiac surgery (n = 15). The agreement between SpotOn and the conventional methods was assessed using the Bland-Altman random-effects approach for repeated measures. The mean difference between SpotOn and the esophageal temperature during vascular surgery was+0.08°C (95% limit of agreement -0.25 to+0.40°C). During cardiac surgery, during off CPB, the mean difference between SpotOn and the pulmonary arterial temperature was -0.05°C (95% limits of agreement -0.56 to+0.47°C). Throughout cardiac surgery (on and off CPB), the mean difference between SpotOn and the nasopharyngeal temperature was -0.12°C (95% limits of agreement -0.94 to+0.71°C). Poor agreement between the SpotOn and nasopharyngeal temperatures was detected in hypothermia below approximately 32°C. According to this preliminary study, the deep body temperature measured using the zero-heat-flux system was in good agreement with standard core temperatures during lower extremity vascular and cardiac surgery. However, agreement was questionable during hypothermia below 32°C. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

  20. Expected changes in future temperature extremes and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hu

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM and the outputs from two global climate models, we investigate possible changes in mean and extreme temperature indices and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region for the two future periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Changes in interannual variability of mean and extreme temperature indices are also analyzed. The validation results show that SDSM performs better in reproducing the maximum temperature-related indices than the minimum temperature-related indices. The projections show that by the middle and end of the 21st century all parts of the study region may experience increases in both mean and extreme temperature in all seasons, along with an increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights and with a decrease in frost days. By the end of the 21st century, interannual variability increases in all seasons for the frequency of hot days and warm nights and in spring for frost days while it decreases for frost days in summer. Autumn demonstrates pronounced elevation-dependent changes in which around six out of eight indices show significant increasing changes with elevation.

  1. Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    Short-lived precipitation extremes are often responsible for hazards in urban and rural environments with economic and environmental consequences. The precipitation intensity is expected to increase about 7% per degree of warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, the observations often show a much stronger increase in the sub-daily values. In particular, the behavior of the hourly summer precipitation from radar observations with the dew point temperature (the Pi-Td relation) for the Netherlands suggests that for moderate to warm days the intensification of the precipitation can be even higher than 21% per degree of warming, that is 3 times higher than the expected CC relation. The rate of change depends on the initial precipitation intensity, as low percentiles increase with a rate below CC, the medium percentiles with 2CC and the moderate-high and high percentiles with 3CC. This non-linear statistical Pi-Td relation is suggested to be used as a delta-transformation to project how a historic extreme precipitation event would intensify under future, warmer conditions. Here, the Pi-Td relation is applied over a selected historic extreme precipitation event to 'up-scale' its intensity to warmer conditions. Additionally, the selected historic event is simulated in the high-resolution, convective-permitting weather model Harmonie. The initial and boundary conditions are alternated to represent future conditions. The comparison between the statistical and the numerical method of projecting the historic event to future conditions showed comparable intensity changes, which depending on the initial percentile intensity, range from below CC to a 3CC rate of change per degree of warming. The model tends to overestimate the future intensities for the low- and the very high percentiles and the clouds are somewhat displaced, due to small wind and convection changes. The total spatial cloud coverage in the model remains, as also in the statistical

  2. The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Zhenong [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA; Zhuang, Qianlai [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA; Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA; Wang, Jiali [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA; Archontoulis, Sotirios V. [Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University, Ames IA 50011 USA; Zobel, Zachary [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois Champaign-Urbana, Urbana IL 61801 USA; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA

    2017-01-25

    Heat and drought stresses are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Here we present a study that quantified the current and future yield responses of US rainfed maize and soybean to climate extremes, and for the first time characterized spatial shifts in the relative importance of temperature, heat and drought stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), driven by the high-resolution (12 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model downscaled future climate scenarios at two time slices (1995-2005 and 2085-2094). Our results show that climatic yield gaps and interannual variability are greater in the core production area than in the remaining US by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of change is highly dependent on the current climate sensitivity and vulnerability. Elevated CO2 partially offsets the climatic yield gaps and reduces interannual yield variability, and effect is more prominent in soybean than in maize. We demonstrate that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize and soybean production, although its dominant role gradually gives way to other impacts of heat extremes. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stressors are characterized by increases in the concurrent stress, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering drought and extreme heat simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management.

  3. Workers’ perceptions of climate change related extreme heat exposure in South Australia: a cross-sectional survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianjun Xiang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Occupational exposure to extreme heat without sufficient protection may not only increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and injuries but also compromise economic productivity. With predictions of more frequent and intense bouts of hot weather, workplace heat exposure is presenting a growing challenge to workers’ health and safety. This study aims to investigate workers’ perceptions and behavioural responses towards extreme heat exposure in a warming climate. Methods A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted in 2012 in South Australia among selected outdoor industries. Workers’ heat risk perceptions were measured in the following five aspects: concerns about heat exposure, attitudes towards more training, policy and guideline support, the adjustment of work habits, and degree of satisfaction of current preventive measures. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors significantly associated with workers’ heat perceptions. Results A total of 749 respondents participated in this survey, with a response rate of 50.9 %. A little more than half (51.2 % of respondents were moderately or very much concerned about workplace heat exposure. Factors associated with workers’ heat concerns included age, undertaking very physically demanding work, and the use of personal protective equipment, heat illness history, and injury experience during hot weather. Less than half (43.4 % of the respondents had received heat-related training. Workers aged 25–54 years and those with previous heat-related illness/injury history showed more supportive attitudes towards heat-related training. The provision of cool drinking water was the most common heat prevention measure. A little more than half (51.4 % of respondents were satisfied with the current heat prevention measures. About two-thirds (63.8 % of respondents agreed that there should be more heat-related regulations and

  4. Dependence of present and future European heat waves and cold spells on the location of atmospheric blocking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunner, L.; Schaller, N.; Sillmann, J.; Steiner, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric blocking describes stationary anti-cyclones, which weaken or reverse the climatological flow at mid-latitudes. In the northern hemisphere one of the main blocking regions is located over the North Atlantic and Northern Europe. The link between blocking and European temperature extremes, such as heat waves and cold spells, strongly depends on several aspects like season, longitudinal location of the block, and location of the extremes (particularly Northern Europe versus Southern Europe). We use a 50-member ensemble of the Canadian CanESM2 model to investigate historical (1981-2010) and future (2070-2099) blocking cases and their relationship with European temperature extremes. For the historical period the model results are also compared to those from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Atmospheric blocking is detected on a daily basis in different 30° longitude windows between 60°W and 60°E, using a standard geopotential height-based detection index. Temperature extremes are defined by the daily Heat/Cold Wave Magnitude Index (HWMId/CWMId). The role of cold advection is found particularly important in winter conditions leading to a more than threefold increase in cold wave occurrence during blocking between 60°W and 0°. During blocking over Northern Europe (0° to 60°E) a split relationship is found with cold wave occurrence being strongly increased in Southern Europe, while it is decreased in Northern Europe. Direct, radiative effects dominate in summer, therefore blocking westward of Europe has a weaker effect, while blocking over Northern Europe leads to an increase of heat waves by at least a factor three at the location of the block and a decrease in cold wave occurrence in almost all of Europe. Comparing the historical and future period we find the link between blocking and temperature extremes in Europe to be robust, even though blocking frequency and temperatures are changing.

  5. Research progresses and future directions on pool boiling heat transfer

    OpenAIRE

    M. Kumar; V. Bhutani; P. Khatak

    2015-01-01

    This paper reviews the previous work carried on pool boiling heat transfer during heating of various liquids and commodities categorized as refrigerants and dielectric fluids, pure liquids, nanofluids, hydrocarbons and additive mixtures, as well as natural and synthetic colloidal solutions. Nucleate pool boiling is an efficient and effective method of boiling because high heat fluxes are possible with moderate temperature differences. It is characterized by the growth of bubbles on a heated s...

  6. GIS based analysis of future district heating potential in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steffen; Möller, Bernd

    2013-01-01

    in Denmark have been mapped in a heat atlas which includes all buildings and their heat demands. This article focuses on developing a method for assessing the costs associated with supplying these buildings with DH. The analysis is based on the existing DH areas in Denmark. By finding the heat production...

  7. Current and future employment of the heat pumps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassitto, L.

    2001-01-01

    Heat pumps, mainly the compression type, grant high energy savings together with environment protection because of the free low temperature energy from environment or wasted heat they use. Their large employment depends on the appreciation of the above properties that are will be done. To grant economic savings on using heat pumps, electric energy and natural gas should have fixed and predictable prices [it

  8. Current and future prospects for heat recovery from waste in European district heating systems: A literature and data review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persson, Urban; Münster, Marie

    2016-01-01

    Municipal solid waste has seen increasing annual volumes for many decades in contemporary Europe and constitutes, if not properly managed, an environmental problem due to local pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. From an energy perspective, waste is also an alternative fuel for power and heat generation; energy recovery from waste represents an effective measure to reduce landfilling and avoid disposal emissions while simultaneously reducing the equivalent demand for primary energy supply. A key factor for obtaining the full synergetic benefits of this energy recovery is the presence of local heat distribution infrastructures, without which no large-scale recovery and utilisation of excess heat is possible. In this paper, which aims to estimate municipal solid waste volumes available for heat recovery in European district heating systems in 2030, a literature and data review is performed to establish and assess current and future EU (European Union) waste generation and management. Main conclusions are that more heat can be recovered from current Waste-to-Energy facilities operating at low average heat recovery efficiencies, that efficient incineration capacity is geographically concentrated, and that waste available for heat recovery in 2030 is equally determined by total generation volumes by this year as by future EU deployment levels of district heating. - Highlights: • European municipal solid waste time series data analysed from 1995 to 2012. • Review of modelling approaches to assess future European waste generation. • Weather corrected district heat data for EU Member States in 1995 and 2012. • Low average heat recovery efficiency in current European waste incineration. • Future heat recovery efficiencies as determinant as future generation volumes.

  9. Prediction of laser cutting heat affected zone by extreme learning machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anicic, Obrad; Jović, Srđan; Skrijelj, Hivzo; Nedić, Bogdan

    2017-01-01

    Heat affected zone (HAZ) of the laser cutting process may be developed based on combination of different factors. In this investigation the HAZ forecasting, based on the different laser cutting parameters, was analyzed. The main goal was to predict the HAZ according to three inputs. The purpose of this research was to develop and apply the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) to predict the HAZ. The ELM results were compared with genetic programming (GP) and artificial neural network (ANN). The reliability of the computational models were accessed based on simulation results and by using several statistical indicators. Based upon simulation results, it was demonstrated that ELM can be utilized effectively in applications of HAZ forecasting.

  10. Residential heat pumps in the future Danish energy system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrovic, Stefan; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard

    2016-01-01

    for politically agreed targets which include: at least 50% of electricity consumption from wind power starting from 2020, fossil fuel free heat and power sector from 2035 and 100% renewable energy system starting from 2050. Residential heat pumps supply around 25% of total residential heating demand after 2035......Denmark is striving towards 100% renewable energy system in 2050. Residential heat pumps are expected to be a part of that system.We propose two novel approaches to improve the representation of residential heat pumps: Coefficients of performance (COPs) are modelled as dependent on air and ground...... temperature while installation of ground-source heat pumps is constrained by available ground area. In this study, TIMES-DK model is utilised to test the effects of improved modelling of residential heat pumps on the Danish energy system until 2050.The analysis of the Danish energy system was done...

  11. Low Temperature District Heating for Future Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Dietrich; Kallert, Anna; Blesl, Markus

    2017-01-01

    of the building stock. Low temperature district heating (LTDH) can contribute significantly to a more efficient use of energy resources as well as better integration of renewable energy (e.g. geothermal or solar heat), and surplus heat (e.g. industrial waste heat) into the heating sector. LTDH offers prospects......The building sector is responsible for more than one third of the final energy consumption of societies and produces the largest amount of greenhouse gas emissions of all sectors. This is due to the utilisation of combustion processes of mainly fossil fuels to satisfy the heating demand...... for both the demand side (community building structure) and the supply side (network properties or energy sources). Especially in connection with buildings that demand only low temperatures for space heating. The utilisation of lower temperatures reduces losses in pipelines and can increase the overall...

  12. Age Modulates Physiological Responses during Fan Use under Extreme Heat and Humidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Daniel; Romero, Steven A; Cramer, Matthew N; Kouda, Ken; Poh, Paula Y S; Ngo, Hai; Jay, Ollie; Crandall, Craig G

    2017-11-01

    We examined the effect of electric fan use on cardiovascular and thermoregulatory responses of nine young (26 ± 3 yr) and nine aged (68 ± 4 yr) adults exposed to extreme heat and humidity. While resting at a temperature of 42°C, relative humidity increased from 30% to 70% in 2% increments every 5 min. On randomized days, the protocol was repeated without or with fan use. HR, core (Tcore) and mean skin (Tsk) temperatures were measured continuously. Whole-body sweat loss was measured from changes in nude body weight. Other measures of cardiovascular (cardiac output), thermoregulatory (local cutaneous and forearm vascular conductance, local sweat rate), and perceptual (thermal and thirst sensations) responses were also examined. When averaged over the entire protocol, fan use resulted in a small reduction of HR (-2 bpm, 95% confidence interval [CI], -8 to 3), and slightly greater Tcore (+0.05°C; 95% CI, -0.13 to 0.23) and Tsk (+0.03°C; 95% CI, -0.36 to 0.42) in young adults. In contrast, fan use resulted in greater HR (+5 bpm; 95% CI, 0-10), Tcore (+0.20°C; 95% CI, 0.00-0.41), and Tsk (+0.47°C; 95% CI, 0.18-0.76) in aged adults. A greater whole-body sweat loss during fan use was observed in young (+0.2 kg; 95% CI, -0.2 to 0.6) but not aged (0.0 kg; 95% CI, -0.2 to 0.2) adults. Greater local sweat rate and cutaneous vascular conductance were observed with fan use in aged adults. Other measures of cardiovascular, thermoregulatory, and perceptual responses were unaffected by fan use in both groups. During extreme heat and humidity, fan use elevates physiological strain in aged, but not young, adults.

  13. Assessment of the Long Term Trends in Extreme Heat Events and the Associated Health Impacts in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, J.; Rennie, J.; Kunkel, K.; Herring, S.; Cullen, H. M.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface air temperature products have been essential for monitoring the evolution of the climate system. Before a temperature dataset is included in such reports, it is important that non-climatic influences be removed or changed so the dataset is considered homogenous. These inhomogeneities include changes in station location, instrumentation and observing practices. While many homogenized products exist on the monthly time scale, few daily products exist, due to the complication of removing breakpoints that are truly inhomogeneous rather than solely by chance (for example, sharp changes due to synoptic conditions). Recently, a sub monthly homogenized dataset has been developed using data and software provided by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Homogeneous daily data are useful for identification and attribution of extreme heat events over a period of time. Projections of increasing temperatures are expected to result in corresponding increases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat events. It is also established that extreme heat events can have significant public health impacts, including short-term increases in mortality and morbidity. In addition, it can exacerbate chronic health conditions in vulnerable populations, including renal and cardiovascular issues. To understand how heat events impact a specific population, it will be important to connect observations on the duration and intensity of extreme heat events with health impacts data including insurance claims and hospital admissions data. This presentation will explain the methodology to identify extreme heat events, provide a climatology of heat event onset, length and severity, and explore a case study of an anomalous heat event with available health data.

  14. Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dosio, Alessandro; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Fischer, Erich M.; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-05-01

    Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those that occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated with increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5 °C warming, a significant increase in heat wave magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Compared to a 1.5 °C world, under 2 °C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over most of the globe. In a 1.5 °C world, 13.8% of the world population will be exposed to severe heat waves at least once every 5 years. This fraction becomes nearly three times larger (36.9%) under 2 °C warming, i.e. a difference of around 1.7 billion people. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will also result in around 420 million fewer people being frequently exposed to extreme heat waves, and ~65 million to exceptional heat waves. Nearly 700 million people (9.0% of world population) will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years in a 1.5 °C world, but more than 2 billion people (28.2%) in a 2 °C world. With current emission trends threatening even the 2 °C target, our study is helpful to identify regions where limiting the warming to 1.5 °C would have the strongest benefits in reducing population exposure to extreme heat.

  15. Effect of land albedo, CO2, orography, and oceanic heat transport on extreme climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Romanova

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Using an atmospheric general circulation model of intermediate complexity coupled to a sea ice – slab ocean model, we perform a number of sensitivity experiments under present-day orbital conditions and geographical distribution to assess the possibility that land albedo, atmospheric CO2, orography and oceanic heat transport may cause an ice-covered Earth. Changing only one boundary or initial condition, the model produces solutions with at least some ice-free oceans in the low latitudes. Using some combination of these forcing parameters, a full Earth's glaciation is obtained. We find that the most significant factor leading to an ice-covered Earth is the high land albedo in combination with initial temperatures set equal to the freezing point. Oceanic heat transport and orography play only a minor role for the climate state. Extremely low concentrations of CO2 also appear to be insufficient to provoke a runaway ice-albedo feedback, but the strong deviations in surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere point to the existence of a strong nonlinearity in the system. Finally, we argue that the initial condition determines whether the system can go into a completely ice covered state, indicating multiple equilibria, a feature known from simple energy balance models.

  16. Vulnerability to extreme-heat-associated hospitalization in three counties in Michigan, USA, 2000-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogbomo, Adesuwa S.; Gronlund, Carina J.; O'Neill, Marie S.; Konen, Tess; Cameron, Lorraine; Wahl, Robert

    2017-05-01

    With climate change, extreme heat (EH) events are increasing, so it is important to understand who is vulnerable to heat-associated morbidity. We determined the association between EH and hospitalizations for all natural causes; cardiovascular, respiratory, and renal diseases; diabetes mellitus; and acute myocardial infarction in Michigan, USA, at different intensities and durations. We assessed confounding by ozone and how individual characteristics and health insurance payer (a proxy for income) modified these associations. We obtained Michigan Inpatient Database, National Climatic Data Center, and US Environmental Protection Agency ozone data for May-September, 2000-2009 for three Michigan counties. We employed a case-crossover design and modeled EH as an indicator for temperature above the 95th, 97th, or 99th percentile thresholds for 1, 2, 3, or 4 days. We examined effect modification by patient age, race, sex, and health insurance payer and pooled the county results. Among non-whites, the pooled odds ratio for hospitalization on EH (97th percentile threshold) vs. non-EH days for renal diseases was 1.37 (95 % CI = 1.13-1.66), which increased with increasing EH intensity, but was null among whites (OR = 1.00, 95 % CI = 0.81, 1.25). We observed a null association between EH and cardiovascular hospitalization. EH (99th percentile threshold) was associated with myocardial infarction hospitalizations. Confounding by ozone was minimal. EH was associated with hospitalizations for renal disease among non-whites. This information on vulnerability to heat-associated morbidity helps characterize the public health burden of EH and target interventions including patient education.

  17. Current and future prospects for heat recovery from waste in European district heating systems: A literature and data review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Persson, Urban; Münster, Marie

    2016-01-01

    Municipal solid waste has seen increasing annual volumes for many decades in contemporary Europe and constitutes, if not properly managed, an environmental problem due to local pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. From an energy perspective, waste is also an alternative fuel for power and heat...... to establish and assess current and future EU (European Union) waste generation and management. Main conclusions are that more heat can be recovered from current Waste-to-Energy facilities operating at low average heat recovery efficiencies, that efficient incineration capacity is geographically concentrated...... heat distribution infrastructures, without which no large-scale recovery and utilisation of excess heat is possible. In this paper, which aims to estimate municipal solid waste volumes available for heat recovery in European district heating systems in 2030, a literature and data review is performed...

  18. Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, C; Salzmann, N; Allen, S; Caplan-Auerbach, J; Fischer, L; Haeberli, W; Larsen, C; Schneider, D; Wessels, R

    2010-05-28

    The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored. We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing. We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001-2050 compared with a 1951-2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5-4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times. Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.

  19. Analysis of Potential Future Climate and Climate Extremes in the Brazos Headwaters Basin, Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ripendra Awal

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Texas’ fast-growing economy and population, coupled with cycles of droughts due to climate change, are creating an insatiable demand for water and an increasing need to understand the potential impacts of future climates and climate extremes on the state’s water resources. The objective of this study was to determine potential future climates and climate extremes; and to assess spatial and temporal changes in precipitation (Prec, and minimum and maximum temperature (Tmin and Tmax, respectively, in the Brazos Headwaters Basin under three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1 for three future periods: 2020s (2011–2030, 2055s (2046–2065, and 2090s (2080–2099. Daily gridded climate data obtained from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR were used to downscale outputs from 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs using the Long Ashton Research Station–Weather Generator (LARS-WG model. Results indicate that basin average Tmin and Tmax will increase; however, annual precipitation will decrease for all periods. Annual precipitation will decrease by up to 5.2% and 6.8% in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. However, in some locations in the basin, up to a 14% decrease in precipitation is projected in the 2090s under the A2 (high emissions scenario. Overall, the northwestern and southern part of the Brazos Headwaters Basin will experience greater decreases in precipitation. Moreover, precipitation indices of the number of wet days (prec ≥ 5 mm and heavy precipitation days (prec ≥ 10 mm are projected to slightly decrease for all future periods. On the other hand, Tmin and Tmax will increase by 2 and 3 °C on average in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. Mostly, projected increases in Tmin and Tmax will be in the upper range in the southern and southeastern part of the basin. Temperature indices of frost (Tmin < 0 °C and ice days (Tmax < 0 °C are projected to decrease, while tropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C and summer days (Tmax

  20. GIS Based Analysis of future district heating potential in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steffen; Möller, Bernd

    2012-01-01

    and their heat demand has in recent years been assessed in a heat atlas including all buildings in Denmark. The focus in this article is to further develop a method for assessing the costs associated with supplying these buildings with DH. The analysis takes departure in the existing DH areas in Denmark...

  1. Research progresses and future directions on pool boiling heat transfer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kumar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the previous work carried on pool boiling heat transfer during heating of various liquids and commodities categorized as refrigerants and dielectric fluids, pure liquids, nanofluids, hydrocarbons and additive mixtures, as well as natural and synthetic colloidal solutions. Nucleate pool boiling is an efficient and effective method of boiling because high heat fluxes are possible with moderate temperature differences. It is characterized by the growth of bubbles on a heated surface. It occurs during boiling of liquids for excess temperature ranging from 5 to 30 °C in various processes related to high vaporization of liquid for specific purposes like sugarcane juice heating for jaggery making, milk heating for khoa making, steam generation, cooling of electronic equipments, refrigeration and etcetera. In this review paper, pool boiling method during heating of liquids for specific purpose is depicted. It is inferred that enhancement in pool boiling heat transfer is a challenging and complex task. Also, recent research and use of various correlations for natural convection pool boiling is reviewed.

  2. Solar assisted heat pumps: A possible wave of the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smetana, F. O.

    1976-01-01

    With the higher costs of electric power and the widespread interest to use solar energy to reduce the national dependence on fossil fuels, heat pumps are examined to determine their suitability for use with solar energy systems.

  3. Future sustainable desalination using waste heat: kudos to thermodynamic synergy

    KAUST Repository

    Shahzad, Muhammad Wakil; Ng, Kim Choon; Thu, Kyaw

    2015-01-01

    There has been a plethora of published literature on thermally-driven adsorption desalination (AD) cycles for seawater desalination due to their favorable environmentally friendly attributes, such as the ability to operate with low-temperature heat

  4. Thermotolerance and Photosystem II Behaviour in Co-occuring Temperate Tree Species Exposed to Short-term Extreme Heat Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guha, A.; Warren, J.; Cummings, C.; Han, J.

    2017-12-01

    Thermal stress can induce irreversible photodamage with longer consequences for plant metabolism. We focused on photosystem II (PSII) behaviour to understand how this complex responds in different co-occuring temperate trees exposed to short-term extreme heat waves. The study was designed for understanding complex heat tolerance mechanisms in trees. During manipulative heat-wave experiments, we monitored instantaneous PSII performance and tracked both transient and chronic PSII damages using chlorophyll a fluorescence characteristics. Fluorescence signals were used to simulate PSII bioenergetic processes. The light (Fv'/Fm') and dark-adapted (Fv/Fm) fluorescence traits including fast induction kinetics (OJIP), electron transport rate, PSII operating efficiency and quenching capacities were significantly affected by the heat treatments. Loss in PSII efficiency was more apparent in species like black cottonwood, yellow poplar, walnuts and conifers, whereas oaks maintained relatively better PSII functions. The post-heat recovery of Fv/Fm varied across the studied species showing differential carry over effects. PSII down-regulation was one of dominant factors for the loss in operational photosynthesis during extreme heat wave events. Both light and dark-adapted fluorescence characteristics showed loss in photo-regulatory functions and photodamage. Some resilient species showed rapid recovery from transient PSII damage, whereas fingerprints of chronic PSII damage were observed in susceptibles. Thresholds for Fv/Fm and non-photochemical quenching were identified for the studied species. PSII malfunctioning was largely associated with the observed photosynthetic down-regulation during heat wave treatments, however, its physiological recovery should be a key factor to determine species resilience to short-term extreme heat wave events.

  5. Responding to the Effects of Extreme Heat: Baltimore City's Code Red Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    Heat response plans are becoming increasingly more common as US cities prepare for heat waves and other effects of climate change. Standard elements of heat response plans exist, but plans vary depending on geographic location and distribution of vulnerable populations. Because heat events vary over time and affect populations differently based on vulnerability, it is difficult to compare heat response plans and evaluate responses to heat events. This article provides an overview of the Baltimore City heat response plan, the Code Red program, and discusses the city's response to the 2012 Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic Derecho, a complex heat event. Challenges with and strategies for evaluating the program are reviewed and shared.

  6. The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Wang, Jiali; Archontoulis, Sotirios V; Zobel, Zachary; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R

    2017-07-01

    Heat and drought are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. This study quantifies the combined and separate impacts of high temperature, heat and drought stresses on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production and for the first time characterizes spatial shifts in the relative importance of individual stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), driven by high-resolution (12 km) dynamically downscaled climate projections for 1995-2004 and 2085-2094. Results show that maize and soybean yield losses are prominent in the US Midwest by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of loss highly depends on the current vulnerability and changes in climate extremes. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 partially but not completely offsets the yield gaps caused by climate extremes, and the effect is greater in soybean than in maize. Our simulations suggest that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize production under RCP4.5 and soybean production under both RCP scenarios, whereas high temperature and heat stress take over the dominant stress of drought on maize under RCP8.5. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stresses are characterized by the increase in concurrent stresses, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering heat and drought stresses simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management. The modeling framework of partitioning the total effects of climate change into individual stress impacts can be applied to the study of other crops and agriculture systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. A modelling framework to project future climate change impacts on streamflow variability and extremes in the West River, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Fei

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a hydrological modelling framework was introduced to assess the climate change impacts on future river flow in the West River basin, China, especially on streamflow variability and extremes. The modelling framework includes a delta-change method with the quantile-mapping technique to construct future climate forcings on the basis of observed meteorological data and the downscaled climate model outputs. This method is able to retain the signals of extreme weather events, as projected by climate models, in the constructed future forcing scenarios. Fed with the historical and future forcing data, a large-scale hydrologic model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC was executed for streamflow simulations and projections at daily time scales. A bootstrapping resample approach was used as an indirect alternative to test the equality of means, standard deviations and the coefficients of variation for the baseline and future streamflow time series, and to assess the future changes in flood return levels. The West River basin case study confirms that the introduced modelling framework is an efficient effective tool to quantify streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.

  8. Geothermal project will predetermine future of the Kosice heating plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirman, K.

    2003-01-01

    Geoterm, a.s. manager O. Halas describes economic and technical parameters of geothermal energy source by village Durkov near Kosice. It is planned to exploitate geothermal energy source for Kosicka heating plant (TEKO). Three basic variants of technical connecting to geothermal source are developed. Temperature at TEKO entrance should reach 125 degrees, annual heating energy supply will reach 2100 TJ and source output will reach 100 MWt, while admissible deviation at all indicators reaches 10%. The first geothermal energy should by supplied to TEKO in 2007. The investments overlapping 3 billions Slovak crowns are necessary to realize whole project. According to O. Halas a credit from World Bank guaranteed by state is crucial

  9. Simulation of extreme rainfall event of November 2009 over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: the explicit role of topography and surface heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almazroui, Mansour; Raju, P. V. S.; Yusef, A.; Hussein, M. A. A.; Omar, M.

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, a nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to simulate the extreme precipitation event of 25 November 2009, over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The model is integrated in three nested (27, 9, and 3 km) domains with the initial and boundary forcing derived from the NCEP reanalysis datasets. As a control experiment, the model integrated for 48 h initiated at 0000 UTC on 24 November 2009. The simulated rainfall in the control experiment depicts in well agreement with Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission rainfall estimates in terms of intensity as well as spatio-temporal distribution. Results indicate that a strong low-level (850 hPa) wind over Jeddah and surrounding regions enhanced the moisture and temperature gradient and created a conditionally unstable atmosphere that favored the development of the mesoscale system. The influences of topography and heat exchange process in the atmosphere were investigated on the development of extreme precipitation event; two sensitivity experiments are carried out: one without topography and another without exchange of surface heating to the atmosphere. The results depict that both surface heating and topography played crucial role in determining the spatial distribution and intensity of the extreme rainfall over Jeddah. The topography favored enhanced uplift motion that further strengthened the low-level jet and hence the rainfall over Jeddah and adjacent areas. On the other hand, the absence of surface heating considerably reduced the simulated rainfall by 30% as compared to the observations.

  10. Heat storage. Role in the energy system of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauer, Andreas; Woerner, Antje; Kranz, Stefan; Schumacher, Patrick; Gschwander, Stefan; Appen, Jan von; Hidalgo, Diego; Gross, Bodo; Grashof, Katherina

    2015-01-01

    For the implementation of the energy transition in Germany can contribute in a variety of applications thermal energy storage. Both at the integration of renewable energy sources, as well as in increasing the energy efficiency in the building sector and industry can utilize heat and cold storage great potential. For this diverse storage technologies are available. In Germany numerous research and development projects are running currently, covering the broad possibilities of thermal energy storage. [de

  11. Future sustainable desalination using waste heat: kudos to thermodynamic synergy

    KAUST Repository

    Shahzad, Muhammad Wakil

    2015-12-02

    There has been a plethora of published literature on thermally-driven adsorption desalination (AD) cycles for seawater desalination due to their favorable environmentally friendly attributes, such as the ability to operate with low-temperature heat sources, from either the renewable or the exhaust gases, and having almost no major moving parts. We present an AD cycle for seawater desalination due to its unique ability to integrate higher water production yields with the existing desalination methods such as reverse osmosis (RO), multi-stage flashing (MSF) and multi-effect distillation (MED), etc. The hybrid cycles exploit the thermodynamic synergy between processes, leading to significant enhancement of the systems\\' performance ratio (PR). In this paper, we demonstrate experimentally the synergetic effect between the AD and MED cycles that results in quantum improvement in water production. The unique feature is in the internal latent heat recovery from the condenser unit of AD to the top-brine stage of MED, resulting in a combined, or simply termed as MEAD, cycle that requires no additional heat input other than the regeneration of an adsorbent. The batch-operated cycles are simple to implement and require low maintenance when compared with conventional desalination methods. Together, they offer a low energy and environmentally friendly desalination solution that addresses the major issues of the water-energy-environment nexus. © 2016 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

  12. Future changes in precipitation and impacts on extreme streamflow over Amazonian sub-basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guimberteau, M; Ronchail, J; Lengaigne, M; Sultan, B; Drapeau, G; Espinoza, J C; Polcher, J; Guyot, J-L; Ducharne, A; Ciais, P

    2013-01-01

    Because of climate change, much attention is drawn to the Amazon River basin, whose hydrology has already been strongly affected by extreme events during the past 20 years. Hydrological annual extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated with precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the Amazon River sub-basins using the land surface model ORCHIDEE and a multimodel approach. Climate change scenarios from up to eight AR4 Global Climate Models based on three emission scenarios were used to build future hydrological projections in the region, for two periods of the 21st century. For the middle of the century under the SRESA1B scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River (Óbidos station), but a systematic discharge decrease is simulated during the recession period, leading to a 10% low-flow decrease. Contrasting discharge variations are pointed out depending on the location in the basin. In the western upper part of the basin, which undergoes an annual persistent increase in precipitation, high flow shows a 7% relative increase for the middle of the 21st century and the signal is enhanced for the end of the century (12%). By contrast, simulated precipitation decreases during the dry seasons over the southern, eastern and northern parts of the basin lead to significant low-flow decrease at several stations, especially in the Xingu River, where it reaches −50%, associated with a 9% reduction in the runoff coefficient. A 18% high-flow decrease is also found in this river. In the north, the low-flow decrease becomes higher toward the east: a 55% significant decrease in the eastern Branco River is associated with a 13% reduction in the runoff coefficient. The estimation of the streamflow elasticity to precipitation indicates that southern sub-basins (except for the mountainous Beni River), that have low runoff coefficients, will become more responsive to precipitation change (with a 5 to near 35

  13. Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pelt, van S.C.; Beersma, J.J.; Buishand, T.A.; Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.; Kabat, P.

    2012-01-01

    Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks.

  14. Extreme learning machine: a new alternative for measuring heat collection rate and heat loss coefficient of water-in-glass evacuated tube solar water heaters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhijian; Li, Hao; Tang, Xindong; Zhang, Xinyu; Lin, Fan; Cheng, Kewei

    2016-01-01

    Heat collection rate and heat loss coefficient are crucial indicators for the evaluation of in service water-in-glass evacuated tube solar water heaters. However, the direct determination requires complex detection devices and a series of standard experiments, wasting too much time and manpower. To address this problem, we previously used artificial neural networks and support vector machine to develop precise knowledge-based models for predicting the heat collection rates and heat loss coefficients of water-in-glass evacuated tube solar water heaters, setting the properties measured by "portable test instruments" as the independent variables. A robust software for determination was also developed. However, in previous results, the prediction accuracy of heat loss coefficients can still be improved compared to those of heat collection rates. Also, in practical applications, even a small reduction in root mean square errors (RMSEs) can sometimes significantly improve the evaluation and business processes. As a further study, in this short report, we show that using a novel and fast machine learning algorithm-extreme learning machine can generate better predicted results for heat loss coefficient, which reduces the average RMSEs to 0.67 in testing.

  15. Enhancing Extreme Heat Health-Related Intervention and Preparedness Activities Using Remote Sensing Analysis of Daily Surface Temperature, Surface Observation Networks and Ecmwf Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, R. L.; Booth, J.; Hondula, D.; Ross, K. W.; Stuyvesant, A.; Alm, G.; Baghel, E.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme heat causes more human fatalities in the United States than any other natural disaster, elevating the concern of heat-related mortality. Maricopa County Arizona is known for its high heat index and its sprawling metropolitan complex which makes this region a perfect candidate for human health research. Individuals at higher risk are unequally spatially distributed, leaving the poor, homeless, non-native English speakers, elderly, and the socially isolated vulnerable to heat events. The Arizona Department of Health Services, Arizona State University and NASA DEVELOP LaRC are working to establish a more effective method of placing hydration and cooling centers in addition to enhancing the heat warning system to aid those with the highest exposure. Using NASA's Earth Observation Systems from Aqua and Terra satellites, the daily spatial variability within the UHI was quantified over the summer heat seasons from 2005 - 2014, effectively establishing a remotely sensed surface temperature climatology for the county. A series of One-way Analysis of Variance revealed significant differences between daily surface temperature averages of the top 30% of census tracts within the study period. Furthermore, synoptic upper tropospheric circulation patterns were classified to relate surface weather types and heat index. The surface weather observation networks were also reviewed for analyzing the veracity of the other methods. The results provide detailed information regarding nuances within the UHI effect and will allow pertinent recommendations regarding the health department's adaptive capacity. They also hold essential components for future policy decision-making regarding appropriate locations for cooling centers and efficient warning systems.

  16. Future heat waves due to climate change threaten the survival of Posidonia oceanica seedlings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero-Meseguer, Laura; Marín, Arnaldo; Sanz-Lázaro, Carlos

    2017-11-01

    Extreme weather events are major drivers of ecological change, and their occurrence is likely to increase due to climate change. The transient increases in atmospheric temperatures are leading to a greater occurrence of heat waves, extreme events that can produce a substantial warming of water, especially in enclosed basins such as the Mediterranean Sea. Here, we tested the effects of current and predicted heat waves on the early stages of development of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica. Temperatures above 27 °C limited the growth of the plant by inhibiting its photosynthetic system. It suffered a reduction in leaf growth and faster leaf senescence, and in some cases mortality. This study demonstrates that the greater frequency of heat waves, along with anticipated temperature rises in coming decades, are expected to negatively affect the germination of P. oceanica seedlings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Effect of Temperature Shock and Inventory Surprises on Natural Gas and Heating Oil Futures Returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, John Wei-Shan; Lin, Chien-Yu

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station. PMID:25133233

  18. Effect of cold water and inverse lighting on growth performance of broiler chickens under extreme heat stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sang-oh; Park, Byung-sung; Hwangbo, Jong

    2015-07-01

    The present study was carried out to investigate the effect of provision of extreme heat stress diet (EHD), inverse lighting, cold water on growth performance of broiler chickens exposed to extreme heat stress. The chickens were divided into four treatment groups, (T1, T2, T3, T4) as given below: Ti (EHD 1, 10:00-19:00 dark, 19:00-10:00 light, cool water 9 degrees C); T2 (EHD 2, 10:00-19:00 dark, 19:00-10:00 light, cool water 9 degrees C); T3 (EHD 1, 09:00-18:00 dark, 18:00-09:00 light, cool water 141C); T4 (EHD 2, 09:00-18:00 dark, 18:00-09:00 light, cool water 14 degrees C. EHD 1 contained soybean oil, molasses, methionine and lysine; EHD 2 contained the same ingredients as EHD 1 with addition of vitamin C. Groups T1 and T2 were given cooler water than the othertwo groups, and displayed higher body weight increase and diet intake as compared to T3 and T4 (pstress diet, inverse lighting (10:00-19:00 dark, 19:00-10:00 light) with cold water at 9 degrees C under extreme heat stress could enhance growth performance of broiler chickens.

  19. Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Timothy W.; McDonald, Yolanda J.; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

    2013-01-01

    Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed. PMID:25642135

  20. Extreme Heat Wave over European Russia in Summer 2010: Anomaly or a Manifestation of Climatic Trend?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razuvaev, V.; Groisman, P. Y.; Bulygina, O.; Borzenkova, I.

    2010-12-01

    Extraordinary temperature anomalies over European Russia (ER) in summer 2010 raised a legitimate question in the title of this presentation. A 60-days-long hot anticyclonic weather system with daily temperature anomalies as high as +10K and no or negligible amount of rainfall first decimated crops in the forest-steppe zone of ER, gradually dried wetlands in the forest zone and, finally, caused numerous natural and anthropogenic fires that at the time of this abstract preparation have not yet been extinguished. The extreme heat, lack of precipitation, and forest fires have caused hundreds of deaths and multimillion dollars in property losses. Indirect losses of lives due to this weather anomaly, with the ensuing fires and related air pollution, as well as the absence of air conditioning in apartments has yet to be estimated. The center of European Russia was well covered by meteorological observations for the past 130 years. These data, historical weather records (yearbooks or "letopisi" , which were carried on in the major Russian monasteries), and finally, dendroclimatological information, all show that this summer temperature anomaly was well above all known extremes in the past 1000 years. Like ocean waves and ocean tides, weather and climate variability go together strengthening (or mitigating) each other. We shall show the precursors of the current outbreak using principally the most accurate meteorological records of the past century updated to 2009 (at the Session, the 2010 data will also be presented). While a careful analyses of these records and thoughtful analyses of recent similar temperature outbreaks in Western Europe could not prevent the occurrence of this disaster, the lessons learned from these analyses (a) would warn about its increasing probability and (b) mitigation and adaptation measures could well be made to reduce its negative consequences. Among our arguments are: (1)There is a century-long tendency of reduction of equator minus pole

  1. Extreme Temperature Exceedances Change more Rapidly Under Future Warming in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Temperature Distribution Tails

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.

    2017-12-01

    Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.

  2. Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Madsen, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type...... in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated...... from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases...

  3. Extreme Heat Resistance of Food Borne Pathogens Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli, and Salmonella typhimurium on Chicken Breast Fillet during Cooking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aarieke E.I. de Jong

    2012-01-01

    The surface temperature reached 70∘C within 30 sec and 85∘C within one minute. Extremely high decimal reduction times of 1.90, 1.97, and 2.20 min were obtained for C. jejuni, E. coli, and S. typhimurium, respectively. Chicken meat and refrigerated storage before cooking enlarged the heat resistance of the food borne pathogens. Additionally, a high challenge temperature or fast heating rate contributed to the level of heat resistance. The data were used to assess the probability of illness (campylobacteriosis due to consumption of chicken fillet as a function of cooking time. The data revealed that cooking time may be far more critical than previously assumed.

  4. 3. Future-oriented forum on gas heating; 3. Zukunftsforum ''Gasheizung''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Within the future-oriented forum gas heating of the GWI Gaswaerme Institute e.V. (Essen, Federal Republic of Germany) between 07th and 08th June, 2011, at Henrichshuette (Hattingen, Federal Republic of Germany), the following lectures were held: (1) Change of paradigm in the energy economy - and the perspectives of gas economy?; (2) Energy political framework; (3) Technical innovation offensive for the development of future gas markets; (4) Development of the German heating market; (5) Natural gas: The bridge to the regenerative aera; (6) Key technologies in the utilization of gas, (7) InnovationCity Ruhr - Idea.Concept.Strategy; (8) Panel discussion with referents of the meeting: Scenarios of future structures of energy supply; (9) Heating market 2020 - Looking into the future; (10) Market analysis on criteria of decision and motives of the final customers; (11) Presentation of actual gas technologies - Recapitulation to ISH 2011; (12) Practical experiences in the hydrogen production and methanization.

  5. Future extreme water levels and floodplains in Gironde Estuary considering climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laborie, V.; Hissel, F.; Sergent, P.

    2012-04-01

    Within THESEUS European project, an overflowing model of Gironde Estuary has been used to evaluate future surge levels at Le Verdon and future water levels at 6 specific sites of the estuary : le Verdon, Richard, Laména, Pauillac, Le Marquis and Bordeaux. It was then used to study the evolution of floodplains' location and areas towards 2100 in the entire Estuary. In this study, no breaching and no modification in the elevation of the dike was considered. The model was fed by several data sources : wind fields at Royan and Mérignac interpolated from the grid of the European Climatolologic Model CLM/SGA, a tide signal at Le Verdon, the discharges of Garonne (at La Réole), the Dordogne (at Pessac) and Isle (at Libourne). A simplified mathematical model of surge levels has been adjusted at Le Verdon with 10 surge storms and by using wind and pressure fields given by CLM/SGA. This adjustment was led so that the statistical analysis of the global signal at Le Verdon gives the same quantiles as the same analysis driven on maregraphic observations for the period [1960 ; 2000]. The assumption used for sea level rise was the pessimistic one of the French national institute for climate change: 60 cm in 2100. The model was then used to study the evolution of extreme water levels towards 2100. The analysis of surge levels at Le Verdon shows a decrease in quantiles which is coherent with the analysis of climatologic fields. The analysis of water levels shows that the increase in mean water levels quantiles represents only a part of sea level rise in Gironde Estuary. Moreover this effect seems to decrease from the maritime limit of the model towards upstream. Concerning floodplains, those corresponding to return periods from 2 to 100 years for present conditions and 3 slices [2010; 2039], [2040; 2069] and [2070; 2099] have been mapped for 3 areas in Gironde Estuary : around Le Verdon, at the confluence between Garonne and Dordogne, and near Bordeaux. Concerning the evolution

  6. [Mathematical apparatus of the circuit theory in modeling of heat transfer upon extreme heating of an organism].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    The mathematical model of heat transfer in whole-body hyperthermia, developed earlier by the author, has been refined using the mathematical apparatus of the circuit theory. The model can be used to calculate the temperature of each organ, which can increase the efficacy and safety of the immersion-convection technique of whole-body hyperthermia.

  7. Efficient district heating in the future energy system. Final report; Effektiv fjernvarme i fremtidens energisystem. Slutrapport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this project is to illustrate how district heating can develop its role in the future Danish energy system, for example by reducing energy losses and the dynamic use of common technologies such as cogeneration and heat storage, and less widespread technologies such as heat pumps, geothermal heating, and cooling. The aim is also to analyse how electricity and district heating can interact more effectively, and to point out how framework conditions are important for district heating's continued development and efficiency. In the project, a linear optimization model is developed and applied as to analyse the interaction between district heating supply on the one hand, and energy savings, CO{sub 2} targets, wind power and the international electricity market on the other hand. Furthermore, more close-case operational analyses of district heating systems have been made in Ringkoebing and the metropolitan area, based on data from the district heating companies. Finally, a wide range of challenges for district heating in the long term were discussed and analysed during meetings with the project's reference group, including the need for development and demonstration projects. (ln)

  8. The role of horizontal thermal advection in regulating wintertime mean and extreme temperatures over the central United States during the past and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, F.; Vavrus, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    Horizontal temperature advection plays an especially prominent role in affecting winter climate over continental interiors, where both climatological conditions and extreme weather are strongly regulated by transport of remote air masses. Central North America is one such region, and it experienced a major cold-air outbreak (CAO) a few years ago that some have related to amplified Arctic warming. Despite the known importance of dynamics in shaping the winter climate of this sector and the potential for climate change to modify heat transport, limited attention has been paid to the regional impact of thermal advection. Here, we use a reanalysis product and output from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble to quantify the roles of zonal and meridional temperature advection over the central U. S. during winter, both in the late 20th and 21st centuries. We frame our findings as a "tug of war" between opposing influences of the two advection components and between these dynamical forcings vs. thermodynamic changes under greenhouse warming. For example, Arctic amplification leads to much warmer polar air masses, causing a moderation of cold-air advection into the central U. S., yet the model also simulates a wavier mean circulation and stronger northerly flow during CAOs, favoring lower regional temperatures. We also compare the predominant warming effect of zonal advection and overall cooling effect of meridional temperature advection as an additional tug of war. During both historical and future periods, zonal temperature advection is stronger than meridional advection over the Central U. S. The model simulates a future weakening of both zonal and meridional temperature advection, such that westerly flow provides less warming and northerly flow less cooling. On the most extreme warm days in the past and future, both zonal and meridional temperature advection have positive (warming) contributions. On the most extreme cold days, meridional cold air advection

  9. Extremely low-frequency magnetic fields can impair spermatogenesis recovery after reversible testicular damage induced by heat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tenorio, Bruno Mendes; Ferreira Filho, Moisés Bonifacio Alves; Jimenez, George Chaves; de Morais, Rosana Nogueira; Peixoto, Christina Alves; Nogueira, Romildo de Albuquerque; da Silva Junior, Valdemiro Amaro

    2014-06-01

    Male infertility is often related to reproductive age couples experiencing fertility-related issues. Men may have fertility problems associated with reversible testicular damage. Considering that men have been increasingly exposed to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields generated by the production, distribution and use of electricity, this study analyzed whether 60 Hz and 1 mT magnetic field exposure may impair spermatogenesis recovery after reversible testicular damage induced by heat shock using rats as an experimental model. Adult male rats were subjected to a single testicular heat shock (HS, 43 °C for 12 min) and then exposed to the magnetic field for 15, 30 and 60 d after HS. Magnetic field exposure during the spermatogenesis recovery induced changes in testis components volume, cell ultrastructure and histomorphometrical parameters. Control animals had a reestablished and active spermatogenesis at 60 d after heat shock, while animals exposed to magnetic field still showed extensive testicular degeneration. Magnetic field exposure did not change the plasma testosterone. In conclusion, extremely low-frequency magnetic field may be harmful to fertility recovery in males affected by reversible testicular damage.

  10. Temporal Changes in Mortality Related to Extreme Temperatures for 15 Cities in Northeast Asia: Adaptation to Heat and Maladaptation to Cold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Yeonseung; Noh, Heesang; Honda, Yasushi; Hashizume, Masahiro; Bell, Michelle L; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Kim, Ho

    2017-05-15

    Understanding how the temperature-mortality association worldwide changes over time is crucial to addressing questions of human adaptation under climate change. Previous studies investigated the temporal changes in the association over a few discrete time frames or assumed a linear change. Also, most studies focused on attenuation of heat-related mortality and studied the United States or Europe. This research examined continuous temporal changes (potentially nonlinear) in mortality related to extreme temperature (both heat and cold) for 15 cities in Northeast Asia (1972-2009). We used a generalized linear model with splines to simultaneously capture 2 types of nonlinearity: nonlinear association between temperature and mortality and nonlinear change over time in the association. We combined city-specific results to generate country-specific results using Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Cold-related mortality remained roughly constant over decades and slightly increased in the late 2000s, with a larger increase for cardiorespiratory deaths than for deaths from other causes. Heat-related mortality rates have decreased continuously over time, with more substantial decrease in earlier decades, for older populations and for cardiorespiratory deaths. Our findings suggest that future assessment of health effects of climate change should account for the continuous changes in temperature-related health risk and variations by factors such as age, cause of death, and location. © Crown copyright 2017.

  11. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael

    2015-01-01

    general disturbance‐induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well‐defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta‐analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through...

  12. Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Melissa McLean

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available End-of-century changes in Caribbean climate extremes are derived from the Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS regional climate model (RCM under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios across five rainfall zones. Trends in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature extremes from the RCM are validated against meteorological stations over 1979–1989. The model displays greater skill at representing trends in consecutive wet days (CWD and extreme rainfall (R95P than consecutive dry days (CDD, wet days (R10, and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5. Trends in warm nights, cool days, and warm days were generally well reproduced. Projections for 2071–2099 relative to 1961–1989 are obtained from the ECHAM5 driven RCM. Northern and eastern zones are projected to experience more intense rainfall under A2 and B2. There is less consensus across scenarios with respect to changes in the dry and wet spell lengths. However, there is indication that a drying trend may be manifest over zone 5 (Trinidad and northern Guyana. Changes in the extreme temperature indices generally suggest a warmer Caribbean towards the end of century across both scenarios with the strongest changes over zone 4 (eastern Caribbean.

  13. Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

    2011-01-01

    Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

  14. Management adaptation of invertebrate fisheries to an extreme marine heat wave event at a global warming hot spot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caputi, Nick; Kangas, Mervi; Denham, Ainslie; Feng, Ming; Pearce, Alan; Hetzel, Yasha; Chandrapavan, Arani

    2016-06-01

    An extreme marine heat wave which affected 2000 km of the midwest coast of Australia occurred in the 2010/11 austral summer, with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies of 2-5°C above normal climatology. The heat wave was influenced by a strong Leeuwin Current during an extreme La Niña event at a global warming hot spot in the Indian Ocean. This event had a significant effect on the marine ecosystem with changes to seagrass/algae and coral habitats, as well as fish kills and southern extension of the range of some tropical species. The effect has been exacerbated by above-average SST in the following two summers, 2011/12 and 2012/13. This study examined the major impact the event had on invertebrate fisheries and the management adaption applied. A 99% mortality of Roei abalone ( Haliotis roei ) and major reductions in recruitment of scallops ( Amusium balloti ), king ( Penaeus latisulcatus ) and tiger ( P. esculentus ) prawns, and blue swimmer crabs were detected with management adapting with effort reductions or spatial/temporal closures to protect the spawning stock and restocking being evaluated. This study illustrates that fisheries management under extreme temperature events requires an early identification of temperature hot spots, early detection of abundance changes (preferably using pre-recruit surveys), and flexible harvest strategies which allow a quick response to minimize the effect of heavy fishing on poor recruitment to enable protection of the spawning stock. This has required researchers, managers, and industry to adapt to fish stocks affected by an extreme environmental event that may become more frequent due to climate change.

  15. Progress in ICRF heating technology and designs for future large tokamak heating systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baity, F.W.; Swain, D.W.; Hoffman, D.J.; Becraft, W.R.; Bryan, W.E.; Mayberry, M.J.; Owens, T.L.; Yugo, J.J.

    1986-01-01

    The problem of advancing the technology of heating with the ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRF) for successful application to ignited plasmas is being addressed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) with the collaboration of several laboratories in the United States and Europe. The needs of experiments such as the Compact Ignition Tokamak (CIT) have been evaluated and conceptual approaches identified. These concepts and their components are examined in the laboratory and applied to present-day machines. The status of this program is presented

  16. Risk from drought and extreme heat in Russian wheat production and its relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakaki, Paraskevi; Calanca, Pierluigi

    2017-04-01

    Russia has become one of the leading wheat exporters worldwide. Major breakdowns in Russian wheat production induced by extreme weather events are therefore of high significance not only for the domestic but also for the global market. Wheat production in south-western Russia, the main growing area, suffers in particular from the adverse effects of drought and heat waves. For this reason knowledge of the occurrence of this type of extreme events and of the processes that lead to adverse conditions is of paramount importance for risk management. The negative impacts of heat waves and drought are particularly severe when anomalous conditions persist in time. As an example, a blocking event in summer 2010 resulted in one of the warmest and worst drought conditions in Russia's recent history. The latter caused a decline in Russian wheat production by more than 30%, which in turn prompted the Russian government to issue an export ban that lasted until summer 2011. In view of this, the question of course arises of how much of the negative variations in Russian wheat production levels can be explained by blocking events and other features of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Specific questions are: how often are blocking events over Russia associated with extreme high temperatures and dry conditions? Which of the teleconnection patterns are correlated with drought and heat stress conditions in the area? Answering these questions can contribute to a develop strategies for agricultural risk management. In this contribution we present results of a study that aims at characterizing the occurrence of adverse weather conditions in south-western Russia in relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns such as East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern, the Polar/Eurasia pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavia pattern. The analysis relies on weather data for 1980-2014 from 130 stations distributed across the wheat production area. The account

  17. Oceanic influence on extreme rainfall trends in the north central coast of Venezuela: present and future climate assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lelys Guenni

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Extreme events are an important part of climate variability and their intensity and persistence are often modulated by large scale climatic patterns which might act as forcing drivers affecting their probability of occurrence. When the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA and the Equatorial Pacific (Ni\\~no 3 region sea surface temperature (SST anomalies are of opposite signs and the first one is positive while the second one is negative, the rainfall response is stronger in the northern coast of Venezuela as well as in the Pacific coast of Central America during the Nov-Feb period. The difference between these two SST anomaly time series (NTA-Ni\\~no3 is used in this analysis and it is called the Atlantic-Pacific Index or API. By fitting a dynamic generalized extreme value (GEV model to station based daily rainfall at different locations and to the Xie and Arkin dataset for the Vargas state, we found the API index to be an adequate index to explain the probabilistic nature of rainfall extremes in the northern Venezuelan coast for the months Nov-Feb. Dependence between the Atlantic-Pacific index and the probabilistic behavior of extreme rainfall was also explored for simulations from two global coupled General Circulation Models for the 20th century climate (20C3M experiment and the 21st century climate (SRES A2 experiment: the Echam5 model and the HadCM3 model. A significant dependence of extreme rainfall on the Atlantic-Pacific index is well described by the GEV dynamic model for the Echam5 20C3M experiment model outputs. When looking at future climates under the SRES A2 experiment, the dependence of extreme rainfall from the API index is still significant for the middle part of the 21st century (2046-2064, while this dependence fades off for the latest part of the century (2081-2099

  18. Impacts of extreme heat and drought on crop yields in China: an assessment by using the DLEM-AG2 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Yang, J.; Pan, S.; Tian, H.

    2016-12-01

    China is not only one of the major agricultural production countries with the largest population in the world, but it is also the most susceptible to climate change and extreme events. Much concern has been raised about how extreme climate has affected crop yield, which is crucial for China's food supply security. However, the quantitative assessment of extreme heat and drought impacts on crop yield in China has rarely been investigated. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2), a highly integrated process-based ecosystem model with crop-specific simulation, here we quantified spatial and temporal patterns of extreme climatic heat and drought stress and their impacts on the yields of major food crops (rice, wheat, maize, and soybean) across China during 1981-2015, and further investigated the underlying mechanisms. Simulated results showed that extreme heat and drought stress significantly reduced national cereal production and increased the yield gaps between potential yield and rain-fed yield. The drought stress was the primary factor to reduce crop yields in the semi-arid and arid regions, and extreme heat stress slightly aggravated the yield loss. The yield gap between potential yield and rain-fed yield was larger at locations with lower precipitation. Our results suggest that a large exploitable yield gap in response to extreme climatic heat-drought stress offers an opportunity to increase productivity in China by optimizing agronomic practices, such as irrigation, fertilizer use, sowing density, and sowing date.

  19. Projections of Future Precipitation Extremes Over Europe: A Multimodel Assessment of Climate Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph

    2017-10-01

    Projections of precipitation and its extremes over the European continent are analyzed in an extensive multimodel ensemble of 12 and 50 km resolution EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced by RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) aerosol and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. A systematic intercomparison with ENSEMBLES RCMs is carried out, such that in total information is provided for an unprecedentedly large data set of 100 RCM simulations. An evaluation finds very reasonable skill for the EURO-CORDEX models in simulating temporal and geographical variations of (mean and heavy) precipitation at both horizontal resolutions. Heavy and extreme precipitation events are projected to intensify across most of Europe throughout the whole year. All considered models agree on a distinct intensification of extremes by often more than +20% in winter and fall and over central and northern Europe. A reduction of rainy days and mean precipitation in summer is simulated by a large majority of models in the Mediterranean area, but intermodel spread between the simulations is large. In central Europe and France during summer, models project decreases in precipitation but more intense heavy and extreme rainfalls. Comparison to previous RCM projections from ENSEMBLES reveals consistency but slight differences in summer, where reductions in southern European precipitation are not as pronounced as previously projected. The projected changes of the European hydrological cycle may have substantial impact on environmental and anthropogenic systems. In particular, the simulations indicate a rising probability of summertime drought in southern Europe and more frequent and intense heavy rainfall across all of Europe.

  20. Mortality on extreme heat days using official thresholds in Spain: a multi-city time series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Aurelio

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The 2003 heat wave had a high impact on mortality in Europe, which made necessary to develop heat health watch warning systems. In Spain this was carried-out by the Ministry of Health in 2004, being based on exceeding of city-specific simultaneous thresholds of minimum and maximum daily temperatures. The aim of this study is to assess effectiveness of the official thresholds established by the Ministry of Health for each provincial capital city, by quantifying and comparing the short-term effects of above-threshold days on total daily mortality. Methods Total daily mortality and minimum and maximum temperatures for the 52 capitals of province in Spain were collected during summer months (June to September for the study period 1995-2004. Data was analysed using GEE for Poisson regression. Relative Risk (RR of total daily mortality was quantified for the current day of official thresholds exceeded. Results The number of days in which the thresholds were exceeded show great inconsistency, with provinces with great number of exceeded days adjacent to provinces that did not exceed or rarely exceeded. The average overall excess risk of dying during an extreme heat day was about 25% (RR = 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI = [1.19-1.30]. Relative risks showed a significant heterogeneity between cities (I2 = 54.9%. Western situation and low mean summer temperatures were associated with higher relative risks, suggesting thresholds may have been set too high in these areas. Conclusions This study confirmed that extreme heat days have a considerable impact on total daily mortality in Spain. Official thresholds gave consistent relative risk in the large capital cities. However, in some other cities thresholds

  1. Future changes in summer mean and extreme precipitation frequency in Japan by d4PDF regional climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, Y.; Ishii, M.; Endo, H.; Kawase, H.; Sasaki, H.; Takayabu, I.; Watanabe, S.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Kawazoe, S.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation in summer plays a vital role in sustaining life across East Asia, but the heavy rain that is often generated during this period can also cause serious damage. Developing a better understanding of the features and occurrence frequency of this heavy rain is an important element of disaster prevention. We investigated future changes in summer mean and extreme precipitation frequency in Japan using large ensemble dataset which simulated by the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model with a horizontal resolution of 20km (NHRCM20). This dataset called database for Policy Decision making for Future climate changes (d4PDF), which is intended to be utilized for the impact assessment studies and adaptation planning to global warming. The future climate experiments assume the global mean surface air temperature rise 2K and 4K from the pre-industrial period. We investigated using this dataset future changes of precipitation in summer over the Japanese archipelago based on observational locations. For mean precipitation in the present-day climate, the bias of the rainfall for each month is within 25% even considering all members (30 members). The bias at each location is found to increase by over 50% on the Pacific Ocean side of eastern part of Japan and interior locations of western part of Japan. The result in western part of Japan depends on the effect of the elevations in this model. The future changes in mean precipitation show a contrast between northern and southern Japan, with the north showing a slight increase but the south a decrease. The future changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation in the national average of Japan increase at 2K and 4K simulations compared with the present-day climate, respectively. The authors were supported by the Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT), the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan.

  2. Modeling soil heating and moisture transport under extreme conditions: Forest fires and slash pile burns

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. J. Massman

    2012-01-01

    Heating any soil during a sufficiently intense wildfire or prescribed burn can alter it irreversibly, causing many significant, long-term biological, chemical, and hydrological effects. Given the climate-change-driven increasing probability of wildfires and the increasing use of prescribed burns by land managers, it is important to better understand the dynamics of the...

  3. Effects of anthropogenic heat due to air-conditioning systems on an extreme high temperature event in Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Li, Y.; Di Sabatino, S.; Martilli, A.; Chan, P. W.

    2018-03-01

    Anthropogenic heat flux is the heat generated by human activities in the urban canopy layer, which is considered the main contributor to the urban heat island (UHI). The UHI can in turn increase the use and energy consumption of air-conditioning systems. In this study, two effective methods for water-cooling air-conditioning systems in non-domestic areas, including the direct cooling system and central piped cooling towers (CPCTs), are physically based, parameterized, and implemented in a weather research and forecasting model at the city scale of Hong Kong. An extreme high temperature event (June 23-28, 2016) in the urban areas was examined, and we assessed the effects on the surface thermal environment, the interaction of sea-land breeze circulation and urban heat island circulation, boundary layer dynamics, and a possible reduction of energy consumption. The results showed that both water-cooled air-conditioning systems could reduce the 2 m air temperature by around 0.5 °C-0.8 °C during the daytime, and around 1.5 °C around 7:00-8:00 pm when the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height was confined to a few hundred meters. The CPCT contributed around 80%-90% latent heat flux and significantly increased the water vapor mixing ratio in the atmosphere by around 0.29 g kg-1 on average. The implementation of the two alternative air-conditioning systems could modify the heat and momentum of turbulence, which inhibited the evolution of the PBL height (a reduction of 100-150 m), reduced the vertical mixing, presented lower horizontal wind speed and buoyant production of turbulent kinetic energy, and reduced the strength of sea breeze and UHI circulation, which in turn affected the removal of air pollutants. Moreover, the two alternative air-conditioning systems could significantly reduce the energy consumption by around 30% during extreme high temperature events. The results of this study suggest potential UHI mitigation strategies and can be extended to

  4. Urban Form and Extreme Heat Events: Are Sprawling Cities More Vulnerable to Climate Change Than Compact Cities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Brian; Hess, Jeremy J.; Frumkin, Howard

    2010-01-01

    Background Extreme heat events (EHEs) are increasing in frequency in large U.S. cities and are responsible for a greater annual number of climate-related fatalities, on average, than any other form of extreme weather. In addition, low-density, sprawling patterns of urban development have been associated with enhanced surface temperatures in urbanized areas. Objectives In this study. we examined the association between urban form at the level of the metropolitan region and the frequency of EHEs over a five-decade period. Methods We employed a widely published sprawl index to measure the association between urban form in 2000 and the mean annual rate of change in EHEs between 1956 and 2005. Results We found that the rate of increase in the annual number of EHEs between 1956 and 2005 in the most sprawling metropolitan regions was more than double the rate of increase observed in the most compact metropolitan regions. Conclusions The design and management of land use in metropolitan regions may offer an important tool for adapting to the heat-related health effects associated with ongoing climate change. PMID:21114000

  5. Frequency of Extreme Heat Event as a Surrogate Exposure Metric for Examining the Human Health Effects of Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crystal Romeo Upperman

    Full Text Available Epidemiological investigation of the impact of climate change on human health, particularly chronic diseases, is hindered by the lack of exposure metrics that can be used as a marker of climate change that are compatible with health data. Here, we present a surrogate exposure metric created using a 30-year baseline (1960-1989 that allows users to quantify long-term changes in exposure to frequency of extreme heat events with near unabridged spatial coverage in a scale that is compatible with national/state health outcome data. We evaluate the exposure metric by decade, seasonality, area of the country, and its ability to capture long-term changes in weather (climate, including natural climate modes. Our findings show that this generic exposure metric is potentially useful to monitor trends in the frequency of extreme heat events across varying regions because it captures long-term changes; is sensitive to the natural climate modes (ENSO events; responds well to spatial variability, and; is amenable to spatial/temporal aggregation, making it useful for epidemiological studies.

  6. The paleoclimate context and future trajectory of extreme summer hydroclimate in eastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I; Palmer, Jonathan G; Cook, Edward R; Turney, Chris S M; Allen, Kathryn; Fenwick, Pavla; O’Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice M; Grierson, Pauline F; Ho, Michelle; Baker, Patrick J

    2018-01-01

    Eastern Australia recently experienced an intense drought (Millennium Drought, 2003–2009) and record-breaking rainfall and flooding (austral summer 2010–2011). There is some limited evidence for a climate change contribution to these events, but such analyses are hampered by the paucity of information on long-term natural variability. Analyzing a new reconstruction of summer (December–January–February) Palmer Drought Severity Index (the Australia–New Zealand Drought Atlas; ANZDA, 1500–2012 CE), we find moisture deficits during the Millennium Drought fall within the range of the last 500 years of natural hydroclimate variability. This variability includes periods of multi-decadal drought in the 1500s more persistent than any event in the historical record. However, the severity of the Millennium Drought, which was caused by autumn (March–April–May) precipitation declines, may be underestimated in the ANZDA because the reconstruction is biased towards summer and antecedent spring (September-October-November) precipitation. The pluvial in 2011, however, which was characterized by extreme summer rainfall faithfully captured by the ANZDA, is likely the wettest year in the reconstruction for Coastal Queensland. Climate projections (RCP 8.5 scenario) suggest that eastern Australia will experience long-term drying during the 21st century. While the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to recent extremes remains an open question, these projections indicate an amplified risk of multi-year drought anomalies matching or exceeding the intensity of the Millennium Drought. PMID:29780675

  7. Heat supply from municipal solid waste incineration plants in Japan: Current situation and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabata, Tomohiro; Tsai, Peii

    2016-02-01

    The use of waste-to-energy technology as part of a municipal solid waste management strategy could reduce the use of fossil fuels and contribute to prevention of global warming. In this study, we examined current heat and electricity production by incineration plants in Japan for external use. Herein, we discuss specific challenges to the promotion of heat utilisation and future municipal solid waste management strategies. We conducted a questionnaire survey to determine the actual conditions of heat production by incineration plants. From the survey results, information of about 498 incineration plants was extracted. When we investigated the relationship between heat production for external use and population density where incineration plants were located, we found that regions with a population density situation. © The Author(s) 2015.

  8. Acquired thermotolerance and heat shock in the extremely thermophilic archaebacterium Sulfolobus sp. strain B12.

    OpenAIRE

    Trent, J D; Osipiuk, J; Pinkau, T

    1990-01-01

    The extreme thermophile Sulfolobus sp. strain B12 exhibits an acquired thermotolerance response. Thus, survival of cells from a 70 degrees C culture at the lethal temperature of 92 degrees C was enhanced by as much as 6 orders of magnitude over a 2-h period if the culture was preheated to 88 degrees C for 60 min or longer before being exposed to the lethal temperature. In eubacteria and eucaryotes, acquired thermotolerance correlates with the induced synthesis of a dozen or so proteins known ...

  9. SISGR - In situ characterization and modeling of formation reactions under extreme heating rates in nanostructured multilayer foils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hufnagel, Todd C.

    2014-06-09

    Materials subjected to extreme conditions, such as very rapid heating, behave differently than materials under more ordinary conditions. In this program we examined the effect of rapid heating on solid-state chemical reactions in metallic materials. One primary goal was to develop experimental techniques capable of observing these reactions, which can occur at heating rates in excess of one million degrees Celsius per second. One approach that we used is x-ray diffraction performed using microfocused x-ray beams and very fast x-ray detectors. A second approach is the use of a pulsed electron source for dynamic transmission electron microscopy. With these techniques we were able to observe how the heating rate affects the chemical reaction, from which we were able to discern general principles about how these reactions proceed. A second thrust of this program was to develop computational tools to help us understand and predict the reactions. From atomic-scale simulations were learned about the interdiffusion between different metals at high heating rates, and about how new crystalline phases form. A second class of computational models allow us to predict the shape of the reaction front that occurs in these materials, and to connect our understanding of interdiffusion from the atomistic simulations to measurements made in the laboratory. Both the experimental and computational techniques developed in this program are expected to be broadly applicable to a wider range of scientific problems than the intermetallic solid-state reactions studied here. For example, we have already begun using the x-ray techniques to study how materials respond to mechanical deformation at very high rates.

  10. Extreme degree of ionization in homogenous micro-capillary plasma columns heated by ultrafast current pulses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avaria, G; Grisham, M; Li, J; Tomasel, F G; Shlyaptsev, V N; Busquet, M; Woolston, M; Rocca, J J

    2015-03-06

    Homogeneous plasma columns with ionization levels typical of megaampere discharges are created by rapidly heating gas-filled 520-μm-diameter channels with nanosecond rise time current pulses of 40 kA. Current densities of up to 0.3  GA cm^{-2} greatly increase Joule heating with respect to conventional capillary discharge Z pinches, reaching unprecedented degrees of ionization for a high-Z plasma column heated by a current pulse of remarkably low amplitude. Dense xenon plasmas are ionized to Xe^{28+}, while xenon impurities in hydrogen discharges reach Xe^{30+}. The unique characteristics of these hot, ∼300:1 length-to-diameter aspect ratio plasmas allow the observation of unexpected spectroscopic phenomena. Axial spectra show the unusual dominance of the intercombination line over the resonance line of He-like Al by nearly an order of magnitude, caused by differences in opacities in the axial and radial directions. These plasma columns could enable the development of sub-10-nm x-ray lasers.

  11. Future changes in heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerreiro, Selma; Dawson, Richard; Kilsby, Chris; Lewis, Elizabeth; Ford, Alistair

    2017-04-01

    Future changes in heat-waves, droughts and floods were assessed for 571 European cities. We used all available climate model runs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 - CMIP5 - for their higher emission scenario (RCP8.5) and grouped the projections into Low, Mid and High impact scenarios. This resulted in impact projections outside the range of published literature, but enabled us to better understand uncertainties in future climate projections (both due to climate model errors but also the effects of natural variability) therefore providing the basis for broad scale risk analysis and thereafter identification of robust adaptation strategies. While heat-waves will worsen for every European city, changes in droughts and floods are spatially variable and climate model dependent. The largest increases in the number of heat-wave days are shown to be in southern Europe, but higher heat-wave maximum temperature increases are expected in the mid-latitudes. In the low impact scenario, drought conditions are expected to intensify only in southern Europe while river flooding in expected to worsen in the north. However, in the high impact scenario most European cities show increases in both drought conditions and river flooding. There is a very wide range of projections for future changes in Europe with disagreement between different studies, partly due to their methodological differences but potentially also due to the small number of climate model runs that limits the uncertainties due to natural variability and model errors that each study captures.

  12. Ab-sorption machines for heating and cooling in future energy systems - Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tozer, R.; Gustafsson, M.

    2000-12-15

    After the Executive Summary and a brief introductory chapter, Chapter 2, Sorption Technologies for Heating and Cooling in Future Energy Systems, reviews the main types of sorption systems. Chapter 3, Market Segmentation, then considers the major segments of the market including residential, commercial/institutional and industrial, and the types of sorption hardware most suitable to each. The highly important residential and commercial/institutional markets are mostly concerned with air-conditioning of buildings. More applications are identified and discussed for the industrial market, including refrigeration, food-storage cooling, process cooling, and process heating at various temperature ranges from hot water for hand-washing to high-temperature (greater than 130C). Other interesting industrial applications are absorption cooling or heating combined with co-generation, desiccant cooling, gas turbine inlet air cooling, combining absorption chillers with district heating systems, direct-fired absorption heat pumps (AHPs), and a closed greenhouse concept being developed for that economically important sector in the Netherlands. Most of the sorption market at this time comprises direct-fired absorption chillers, or hot water or steam absorption chillers indirectly driven by direct-fired boilers. Throughout the report, this category of absorption chillers is referred to generically as 'direct-fired'. In addition, this report covers absorption (reversible) heat pumps, absorption heat transformers, compression-absorption heat pumps, and adsorption chillers and heat pumps. Adsorption systems together with desiccant systems are also addressed. Chapter 4, Factors Affecting the Market, considers economic, environmental and policy issues. The geographical make-up of the world sorption market is then reviewed, followed by a number of practical operating and control considerations. These include vacuum requirements, crystallisation, corrosion, maintenance, health and

  13. Simulating extreme environments: Ergonomic evaluation of Chinese pilot performance and heat stress tolerance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Tian, Yinsheng; Ding, Li; Zou, Huijuan; Ren, Zhaosheng; Shi, Liyong; Feathers, David; Wang, Ning

    2015-06-05

    High-temperatures in the cockpit environment can adversely influence pilot behavior and performance. To investigate the impact of high thermal environments on Chinese pilot performance in a simulated cockpit environment. Ten subjects volunteered to participate in the tests under 40°C and 45°C high-temperature simulations in an environmentally controlled chamber. Measures such as grip strength, perception, dexterity, somatic sense reaction, and analytical reasoning were taken. The results were compared to the Combined Index of Heat Stress (CIHS). CIHS exceeded the heat stress safety limit after 45 min under 40°C, grip strength decreased by 12% and somatic perception became 2.89 times larger than the initial value. In the case of 45°C, CIHS exceeded the safety limit after only 20 min, while the grip strength decreased just by 3.2% and somatic perception increased to 4.36 times larger than the initial value. Reaction and finger dexterity were not statistically different from baseline measurements, but the error rate of analytical reasoning test rose remarkably. Somatic perception was the most sensitive index to high-temperature, followed by grip strength. Results of this paper may help to improve environmental control design of new fighter cockpit and for pilot physiology and cockpit environment ergonomics research for Chinese pilots.

  14. Future Precipitation Extremes in China Under Climate Change and Their Possible Mechanisms by Regional Climate Model and Earth System Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, P.; Xie, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Future precipitation extremes in China for the mid and end of 21st century were detected with six simulations using the regional climate model RegCM4 (RCM) and 17 global climate models (GCM) participated in the coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Prior to understanding the future changes in precipitation extremes, we overviewed the performance of precipitation extremes simulated by the CMIP5s and RCMs, and found both CMIP5s and RCMs could capture the temporal and spatial pattern of the historical precipitation extremes in China. In the mid-future period 2039-2058 (MF) and far-future 2079-2098 (FF), more wet precipitation extremes will occur in most area of China relative to the present period 1982-2001 (RF). We quantified the rates of the changes in precipitation extremes in China with the changes in air surface temperature (T2M) for the MF and FF period. Changes in precipitation extremes R95p were found around 5% K-1 for the MF period and 10% K-1 for the FF period, and changes in maximum 5 day precipitation (Rx5day) were detected around 4% K-1 for the MF period and 7% K-1 for the FF period, respectively. Finally, the possible physical mechanisms behind the changes in precipitation extremes in China were also discussed through the changes in specific humidity and vertical wind.

  15. Impacts of The Future Changes in Extreme Events on Migration in The Middle East

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards are defined as extreme events that threat people, their homes and their neighborhoods. They damage housing, food production system and other infrastructures. The frequency of natural hazards namely drought, floods can influence the residential decision-making and can cause substantial residential mobility by affecting relatively greater numbers of people in the region. Developing countries are more vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. Therefore, environmental migration can be associated with natural hazards especially in the developing countries. Limited water resources and demographic dynamics of the Middle East make the region one of the most affected domains from the impacts of natural hazards. In this study, we consider the relationship between migration as a demographic process and the frequency of natural hazards in the Middle East for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005 by performing the projection according to the scenario of IPCC, namely RCP8.5 through the RegCM4.4 and combining them with an econometric analysis. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  16. Monitoring and quantifying future climate projections of dryness and wetness extremes: SPI bias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Sienz

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The adequacy of the gamma distribution (GD for monthly precipitation totals is reconsidered. The motivation for this study is the observation that the GD fails to represent precipitation in considerable areas of global observed and simulated data. This misrepresentation may lead to erroneous estimates of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI, evaluations of models, and assessments of climate change. In this study, the GD is compared to the Weibull (WD, Burr Type III (BD, exponentiated Weibull (EWD and generalised gamma (GGD distribution. These distributions extend the GD in terms of possible shapes (skewness and kurtosis and the behaviour for large arguments. The comparison is based on the Akaike information criterion, which maximises information entropy and reveals a trade-off between deviation and the numbers of parameters used. We use monthly sums of observed and simulated precipitation for 12 calendar months of the year. Assessing observed and simulated data, (i the Weibull type distributions give distinctly improved fits compared to the GD and (ii the SPI resulting from the GD overestimates (underestimates extreme dryness (wetness.

  17. Effect of Enhanced Air Temperature (extreme heat, and Load of Non-Linear Against the Use of Electric Power

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I Ketut Wijaya

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Usage Electric power is very easy to do, because the infrastructure for connecting  already available and widely sold. Consumption electric power is not accompanied by the ability to recognize electric power. The average increase of electricity power in Bali in extreme weather reaches 10% in years 2014, so that Bali suffered power shortages and PLN as the manager of electric power to perform scheduling on of electric power usage. Scheduling is done because many people use electric power as the load  of fan and Air Conditioner exceeding the previous time. Load of fan, air conditioning, and computers including non-linear loads which can add heat on the conductor of electricity. Non-linear load and hot weather can lead to heat on conductor so  insulation damaged  and cause electrical short circuit. Data of electric power obtained through questionnaires, surveys, measurement and retrieve data from various parties. Fires that occurred in 2014, namely 109 events, 44 is  event caused by an electric short circuit (approximately 40%. Decrease power factors can cause losses of electricity and hot. Heat can cause and adds heat on the  conductor electric. The analysis showed  understanding electric power of the average  is 27,700 with value between 20 to 40. So an understanding of the electrical power away from the understand so that many errors because of the act own. Installation tool ELCB very necessary but very necessary provide counseling   of electricity to the community.

  18. "Extremely minimally invasive": recent advances in nanotechnology research and future applications in neurosurgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattei, Tobias A; Rehman, Azeem A

    2015-01-01

    The term "nanotechnology" refers to the development of materials and devices that have been designed with specific properties at the nanometer scale (10(-9) m), usually being less than 100 nm in size. Recent advances in nanotechnology have promised to enable visualization and intervention at the subcellular level, and its incorporation to future medical therapeutics is expected to bring new avenues for molecular imaging, targeted drug delivery, and personalized interventions. Although the central nervous system presents unique challenges to the implementation of new therapeutic strategies involving nanotechnology (such as the heterogeneous molecular environment of different CNS regions, the existence of multiple processing centers with different cytoarchitecture, and the presence of the blood-brain barrier), numerous studies have demonstrated that the incorporation of nanotechnology resources into the armamentarium of neurosurgery may lead to breakthrough advances in the near future. In this article, the authors present a critical review on the current 'state-of-the-art' of basic research in nanotechnology with special attention to those issues which present the greatest potential to generate major therapeutic progresses in the neurosurgical field, including nanoelectromechanical systems, nano-scaffolds for neural regeneration, sutureless anastomosis, molecular imaging, targeted drug delivery, and theranostic strategies.

  19. Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, Luke J.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

    2018-03-01

    Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4-9.6) and 15.8 (5.0-135) under a 1.5°- and 2.0°-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0-1.3) and 1.5 (1.3-1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2.0 °C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 °C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe.

  20. Modeling of intense pulsed ion beam heated masked targets for extreme materials characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, John J.; Schenkel, Thomas

    2017-11-01

    Intense, pulsed ion beams locally heat materials and deliver dense electronic excitations that can induce material modifications and phase transitions. Material properties can potentially be stabilized by rapid quenching. Pulsed ion beams with pulse lengths of order ns have recently become available for materials processing. Here, we optimize mask geometries for local modification of materials by intense ion pulses. The goal is to rapidly excite targets volumetrically to the point where a phase transition or local lattice reconstruction is induced followed by rapid cooling that stabilizes desired material's properties fast enough before the target is altered or damaged by, e.g., hydrodynamic expansion. By using a mask, the longitudinal dimension can be large compared to the transverse dimension, allowing the possibility of rapid transverse cooling. We performed HYDRA simulations that calculate peak temperatures for a series of excitation conditions and cooling rates of silicon targets with micro-structured masks and compare these to a simple analytical model. The model gives scaling laws that can guide the design of targets over a wide range of pulsed ion beam parameters.

  1. Energy need, energy production, waste heat quantities - the present state and a look into the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schikarski, W.

    1975-01-01

    The possibilities and methods to keep the waste heat low in our society so dependent on energy, are manifold and they affect many aspects of our economic and social life. A society which shows concern for its environment will not hesitate to explore all possible avenues and to realize them. Nevertheless, one has to start from the assumption that the energy consumption, which is closely connected with the standard of living, will increase in the near future. Thus, we have to reckon with more waste heat. Therefore, on a medium-term basis, the amount of waste heat we will be confronted with and its distribution in the environment is to be investigated carefully in order that on the one hand hydrosphere and atmosphere, the limit load of which is given, are not burdened in excess, and that on the other hand the media taking up waste heat are utilized in an optimal way (cooling management). On a long-term basis, the limits of waste heat discharge into water and atmosphere have to be determined carefully, something which can probably be done on the basis of climatological consequences. (orig.) [de

  2. Generation and development of damage in double forged tungsten in different combined regimes of irradiation with extreme heat loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paju, Jana; Väli, Berit; Laas, Tõnu; Shirokova, Veroonika; Laas, Katrin; Paduch, Marian; Gribkov, Vladimir A.; Demina, Elena V.; Prusakova, Marina D.; Pimenov, Valeri N.; Makhlaj, Vadym A.; Antonov, Maksim

    2017-11-01

    Armour materials in fusion devices, especially in the region of divertor, are exposed to a continuous heat and particle load. In addition, several off-normal events can reach the material during a work session. Calculations show that the effects of plasma and heat during such events can lead to cracking, erosion and detachment of the armour material. On the other hand, mutual and combined influences of different kinds of heat and particle loads can lead to the amplification of defects or vice versa, to the mitigation of damages. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to investigate the plasma induced damages on samples of double forged tungsten, which is considered a potential candidate for armour material of future tokamak's divertor. The combined effect of different kinds of plasma induced damages was investigated and analysed in this research. The study was conducted by irradiating the samples in various irradiation regimes twice, to observe the accumulation of the damages. Afterwards the analysis of micro-topography, scanning electron microscopy images and electrical conductivity measurements was used. Results indicate that double-forging improved the tungsten's durability to irradiation. Nevertheless, powerful pulses lead to significant damage of the sample, which will lead to further deterioration in the bulk. Although the average micro-roughness on the sample's surface does not change, the overall height/depth ratios can change.

  3. Risky future for Mediterranean forests unless they undergo extreme carbon fertilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo; Nicault, Antoine; Battipaglia, Giovanna; Dorado-Liñán, Isabel; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Ribas, Montserrat; Guiot, Joel

    2017-07-01

    Forest performance is challenged by climate change but higher atmospheric [CO 2 ] (c a ) could help trees mitigate the negative effect of enhanced water stress. Forest projections using data assimilation with mechanistic models are a valuable tool to assess forest performance. Firstly, we used dendrochronological data from 12 Mediterranean tree species (six conifers and six broadleaves) to calibrate a process-based vegetation model at 77 sites. Secondly, we conducted simulations of gross primary production (GPP) and radial growth using an ensemble of climate projections for the period 2010-2100 for the high-emission RCP8.5 and low-emission RCP2.6 scenarios. GPP and growth projections were simulated using climatic data from the two RCPs combined with (i) expected c a ; (ii) constant c a  = 390 ppm, to test a purely climate-driven performance excluding compensation from carbon fertilization. The model accurately mimicked the growth trends since the 1950s when, despite increasing c a , enhanced evaporative demands precluded a global net positive effect on growth. Modeled annual growth and GPP showed similar long-term trends. Under RCP2.6 (i.e., temperatures below +2 °C with respect to preindustrial values), the forests showed resistance to future climate (as expressed by non-negative trends in growth and GPP) except for some coniferous sites. Using exponentially growing c a and climate as from RCP8.5, carbon fertilization overrode the negative effect of the highly constraining climatic conditions under that scenario. This effect was particularly evident above 500 ppm (which is already over +2 °C), which seems unrealistic and likely reflects model miss-performance at high c a above the calibration range. Thus, forest projections under RCP8.5 preventing carbon fertilization displayed very negative forest performance at the regional scale. This suggests that most of western Mediterranean forests would successfully acclimate to the coldest climate change scenario

  4. Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benmarhnia, Tarik; Grenier, Patrick; Brand, Allan; Fournier, Michel; Deguen, Séverine; Smargiassi, Audrey

    2015-09-22

    We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris. We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021-2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis. We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change. We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future.

  5. Extremes of heat, drought and precipitation depress reproductive performance in shortgrass prairie passerines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conrey, Reesa Y.; Skagen, Susan K.; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it is likely to exacerbate many identified threats to animal populations. In recent decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American bird species, a loss thought to be due to habitat loss and fragmentation and changing agricultural practices. Climate change poses additional threats of unknown magnitude to these already declining populations. We examined how seasonal and daily weather conditions over 10 years influenced nest survival of five species of insectivorous passerines native to the shortgrass prairie and evaluate our findings relative to future climate predictions for this region. Daily nest survival (n = 870) was best predicted by a combination of daily and seasonal weather variables, age of nest, time in season and bird habitat guild. Within a season, survival rates were lower on very hot days (temperatures ≥ 35 °C), on dry days (with a lag of 1 day) and on stormy days (especially for those species nesting in shorter vegetation). Across years, survival rates were also lower during warmer and drier breeding seasons. Clutch sizes were larger when early spring temperatures were cool and the week prior to egg-laying was wetter and warming. Climate change is likely to exacerbate grassland bird population declines because projected climate conditions include rising temperatures, more prolonged drought and more intense storms as the hydrological cycle is altered. Under varying realistic scenarios, nest success estimates were halved compared to their current average value when models both increased the temperature (3 °C) and decreased precipitation (two additional dry days during a nesting period), thus underscoring a sense of urgency in identifying and addressing the current causes of range-wide declines.

  6. The significance of climate change in the Netherlands. An analysis of historical and future trends (1901-2020) in weather conditions, weather extremes and temperature-related impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Visser, H.

    2005-07-01

    A rigorous statistical analysis reveals changes in Dutch climate that are statistically significant over the last century. Annually averaged temperatures have increased by 1.5 about 0.5 degrees Centigrade; the number of summer days has roughly doubled from 14 about 5 to 27 about 9 days; annual precipitation has increased by 120 about 100 mm; and the number of extremely wet days has increased by about 40%, from 19 about 3 to 26 about 3 days. Several other changes in Dutch climate, such as spring temperatures rising more rapidly than winter temperatures, the increase of the coldest temperature in each year by 0.9 degrees Centigrade and the annual maximum day sum of precipitation, turn out to be not (yet) statistically significant. The changes in Dutch climate have already led to several statistically significant impacts. The length of the growing season has increased by nearly a month, and the number of heating-degree days, a measure for the energy needed for the heating of houses and buildings, has decreased by 14 about 5%. Projections of future temperature increase in 2020 based on the statistical analysis closely resemble projections based on climate models: temperatures continue to increase from 10.4 about 0.4 degrees Centigrade in 2003 to 10.7 about 0.6 degrees Centigrade in 2010 and 11.1 about 1.0 degrees Centigrade in 2020. The energy needed for heating of houses and buildings is expected to decrease further. This warming effect is expected to lower projections of future Dutch greenhouse-gas emissions by 3.5 Mton CO2 equivalents, which is relevant in the context of commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Finally, over the course of the 20th century the chance on an 'Elfstedentocht', an outdoor skating event in the Netherlands, has decreased from once every five years to once every ten years. Even though this impact change is not yet statistically significant, it resides 'on the edge' of significance: within a few years more evidence may

  7. Analysis on the Extreme Heat Wave over China around Yangtze River Region in the Summer of 2013 and Its Main Contributing Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Jin Li; Ting Ding; Xiaolong Jia; Xianchan Zhao

    2015-01-01

    In the summer of 2013, a rare extreme heat wave occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China. Based on high resolution reanalysis data from ECMWF, comprehensive analyses on the associated atmospheric circulation and the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) were provided. The stable and strong West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) was the direct cause for the heat wave. The WPSH had four westward extensions, which brought about four hot spells in southern China. The ...

  8. Spray cooling heat transfer: Technology overview and assessment of future challenges for micro-gravity application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silk, Eric A.; Golliher, Eric L.; Paneer Selvam, R.

    2008-01-01

    Advanced on-board flight systems for future NASA space exploration programs consist of components such as laser-diode arrays (LDA's) and multi-chip modules (MCM's). Thermal management of these systems require high heat flux cooling capability (≥100 W/cm 2 ), tight temperature control (approx. ±2 deg. C), reliable start-up (on demand) and long term stability. Traditional multiphase thermal control technologies for space flight (e.g., loop heat pipes, capillary pumped loops, etc.) satisfy the temperature control, start-up and stability requirements, but their heat flux removal capabilities are limited. Spray cooling can provide high heat fluxes in excess of 100 W/cm 2 using fluorinerts and over 1000 W/cm 2 with water while allowing tight temperature control at low coolant fluid flow rates. Spray cooling has been flight proven in an open loop configuration through the Space shuttle's flash evaporator system (FES). However, several closed system issues require investigation to further advance the technology to a technology readiness level (TRL) appropriate for closed system space flight application. This paper provides a discussion of the current status of spray cooling technology as well as NASA's goals, current direction, and challenges associated with the implementation and practice of this technology in the micro-gravity environment

  9. Benefits of flexibility from smart electrified transportation and heating in the future UK electricity system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teng, Fei; Aunedi, Marko; Strbac, Goran

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The economic and environmental benefits of smart EVs/HPs are quantified. • This paper implements an advanced stochastic analytical framework. • Operating patterns and potential flexibility of EVs/HPs are sourced from UK trials. • A comprehensive set of case studies across UK future scenarios are carried out. - Abstract: This paper presents an advanced stochastic analytical framework to quantify the benefits of smart electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps (HPs) on the carbon emission and the integration cost of renewable energy sources (RES) in the future UK electricity system. The typical operating patterns of EVs/HPs as well as the potential flexibility to perform demand shifting and frequency response are sourced from recent UK trials. A comprehensive range of case studies across several future UK scenarios suggest that smart EVs/HPs could deliver measurable carbon reductions by enabling a more efficient operation of the electricity system, while at the same time making the integration of electrified transport and heating demand significantly less carbon intensive. The second set of case studies establish that smart EVs/HPs have significant potential to support cost-efficient RES integration by reducing: (a) RES balancing cost, (b) cost of required back-up generation capacity, and (c) cost of additional low-carbon capacity required to offset lower fuel efficiency and curtailed RES output while achieving the same emission target. Frequency response provision from EVs/HPs could significantly enhance both the carbon benefit and the RES integration benefit of smart EVs/HPs.

  10. Solar heating systems: state-of-the-art and prospects for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frei, U.

    2001-01-01

    This article discusses the development of the use of solar collectors over their past 30 years of history and describes today's state-of-the-art for solar installations that are used for hot water preparation and space heating. Advances made in storage technology, in the dimensioning of installations and in the operation of the systems are discussed in detail. The importance of low-flow operation for hot water installations is emphasised. Also, the integration of solar and conventional heating systems is looked at and questions regarding further factors such as those encountered in low-energy-consumption buildings are discussed. Future developments in the product and market areas are looked at, including new forms of storage as well as solar cooling and air-conditioning

  11. Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

  12. The influence of green areas and roof albedos on air temperatures during extreme heat events in Berlin, Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schubert, Sebastian; Grossmann-Clarke, Susanne [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)

    2013-04-15

    The mesoscale atmospheric model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) with the Double Canyon Effect Parametrization Scheme (DCEP) is applied to investigate possible adaption measures to extreme heat events (EHEs) for the city of Berlin, Germany. The emphasis is on the effects of a modified urban vegetation cover and roof albedo on near-surface air temperatures. Five EHEs with a duration of 5 days or more are identified for the period 2000 to 2009. A reference simulation is carried out for each EHE with current vegetation cover, roof albedo and urban canopy parameters (UCPs), and is evaluated with temperature observations from weather stations in Berlin and its surroundings. The derivation of the UCPs from an impervious surface map and a 3-D building data set is detailed. Characteristics of the simulated urban heat island for each EHE are analysed in terms of these UCPs. In addition, six sensitivity runs are examined with a modified vegetation cover of each urban grid cell by -25%, 5% and 15%, with a roof albedo increased to 0.40 and 0.65, and with a combination of the largest vegetation cover and roof albedo, respectively. At the weather stations' grid cells, the results show a maximum of the average diurnal change in air temperature during each EHE of 0.82 K and -0.48 K for the -25% and 15% vegetation covers, -0.50 K for the roof albedos of 0.65, and -0.63 K for the combined vegetation and albedo case. The largest effects on the air temperature are detected during midday. (orig.)

  13. Power plants of the future. What possibilities for waste heat ?; Centrales electriques du futur. Quelles possibilites pour les rejets thermiques?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cherix, G.; Storelli, S. [Centre de Recherches Energetiques et Municipales (CREM), Martigny (Switzerland); Weissbrodt, D. [Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (EPFL), Lausanne (Switzerland); Papina, A. [CTVA SA, Lausanne (Switzerland); Ohana, G. [Services Industriels de Lausanne, Lausanne (Switzerland)

    2008-07-01

    This article discusses how the production of electricity in thermal power stations can be combined with district heating. An analysis of the density of thermal consumption in the french part of Switzerland was done and it shows the region with interest for district heating installations. Different existing installations are commented. The example of district heating in Copenhagen (Denmark) gives practical information and shows that heat can be transported over long distances. A project of district heating for the Lausanne's agglomeration is presented and its influence on reduction of carbon dioxide production is shown. Economical, political and practical aspects are discussed. Figures of heating costs are given.

  14. Contribution of urbanization to the increase of extreme heat events in an urban agglomeration in east China: Urbanization and the Increase of EHEs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Xuchao [Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan China; Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhao, Naizhuo [Department of Geosciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock Texas USA; Zhao, Chun [School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei China; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Hu, Kejia [Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan China; Liu, Xiaoping [School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou China; Chen, Baode [Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai China

    2017-07-03

    The urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is emblematic of China’s rapid urbanization during the past decades. Based on homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature data, the contributions of urbanization to trends of extreme temperature indices (ETIs) during summer in YRD are evaluated. Dynamically classifying the observational stations into urban and rural areas, this study presents unexplored changes in temperature extremes during the past four decades in the YRD region and quantifies the amplification of the positive trends in ETIs by the urban heat island effect. Overall, urbanization contributes to more than one third in the increase of intensity of extreme heat events in the region, which is comparable to the contribution of greenhouse gases. Compared to rural stations, more notable shifts to the right in the probability distribution of temperature and ETIs were observed in urban stations.

  15. Combined Heat and Power: A Decade of Progress, A Vision for the Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    2009-08-01

    Over the past 10 years, DOE has built a solid foundation for a robust CHP marketplace. We have aligned with key partners to produce innovative technologies and spearhead market-transforming projects. Our commercialization activities and Clean Energy Regional Application Centers have expanded CHP across the nation. More must be done to tap CHP’s full potential. Read more about DOE’s CHP Program in “Combined Heat and Power: A Decade of Progress, A Vision for the Future.”

  16. The nuclear heating calculation scheme for material testing in the future Jules Horowitz Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huot, N.; Aggery, A.; Blanchet, D.; Courcelle, A.; Czernecki, S.; Di-Salvo, J.; Doederlein, C.; Serviere, H.; Willermoz, G.

    2004-01-01

    An innovative nuclear heating calculation scheme for materials testing carried out in in the future Jules Horowitz reactor (JHR) is described. A heterogeneous gamma source calculation is first performed at assembly level using the deterministic code APOLLO2. This is followed by a Monte Carlo gamma transport calculation in the whole core using the TRIPOLI4 code. The calculated gamma sources at the assembly level are applied in the whole core simulation using a weighting based on power distribution obtained from the neutronic core calculation. (authors)

  17. Beyond the classical theory of heat conduction: a perspective view of future from entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Xiang; Zhu, Pingan

    2016-01-01

    Energy is conserved by the first law of thermodynamics; its quality degrades constantly due to entropy generation, by the second law of thermodynamics. It is thus important to examine the entropy generation regarding the way to reduce its magnitude and the limit of entropy generation as time tends to infinity regarding whether it is bounded or not. This work initiates such an analysis with one-dimensional heat conduction. The work not only offers some fundamental insights of universe and its future, but also builds up the relation between the second law of thermodynamics and mathematical inequalities via developing the latter of either new or classical nature. A concise review of entropy is also included for the interest of performing the analysis in this work and the similar analysis for other processes in the future. PMID:27843400

  18. Impacts of extreme heat on emergency medical service calls in King County, Washington, 2007-2012: relative risk and time series analyses of basic and advanced life support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calkins, Miriam M; Isaksen, Tania Busch; Stubbs, Benjamin A; Yost, Michael G; Fenske, Richard A

    2016-01-28

    Exposure to excessive heat kills more people than any other weather-related phenomenon, aggravates chronic diseases, and causes direct heat illness. Strong associations between extreme heat and health have been identified through increased mortality and hospitalizations and there is growing evidence demonstrating increased emergency department visits and demand for emergency medical services (EMS). The purpose of this study is to build on an existing regional assessment of mortality and hospitalizations by analyzing EMS demand associated with extreme heat, using calls as a health metric, in King County, Washington (WA), for a 6-year period. Relative-risk and time series analyses were used to characterize the association between heat and EMS calls for May 1 through September 30 of each year for 2007-2012. Two EMS categories, basic life support (BLS) and advanced life support (ALS), were analyzed for the effects of heat on health outcomes and transportation volume, stratified by age. Extreme heat was model-derived as the 95th (29.7 °C) and 99th (36.7 °C) percentile of average county-wide maximum daily humidex for BLS and ALS calls respectively. Relative-risk analyses revealed an 8 % (95 % CI: 6-9 %) increase in BLS calls, and a 14 % (95 % CI: 9-20 %) increase in ALS calls, on a heat day (29.7 and 36.7 °C humidex, respectively) versus a non-heat day for all ages, all causes. Time series analyses found a 6.6 % increase in BLS calls, and a 3.8 % increase in ALS calls, per unit-humidex increase above the optimum threshold, 40.7 and 39.7 °C humidex respectively. Increases in "no" and "any" transportation were found in both relative risk and time series analyses. Analysis by age category identified significant results for all age groups, with the 15-44 and 45-64 year old age groups showing some of the highest and most frequent increases across health conditions. Multiple specific health conditions were associated with increased risk of an EMS call including abdominal

  19. Towards a Future of District Heating Systems with Low-Temperature Operation together with Non-Fossil Fuel Heat Sources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tol, Hakan; Dinçer, Ibrahim; Svendsen, Svend

    2012-01-01

    This study focused on investigation of non-fossil fuel heat sources to be supplied to low-energy district heating systems operating in low temperature such as 55 C and 25 C in terms of, respectively, supply and return. Vast variety of heat sources classed in categories such as fossil fuel...

  20. Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

    2018-06-01

    Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

  1. Impact of two recent extreme heat episodes on morbidity and mortality in Adelaide, South Australia: a case-series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Williams Susan

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Extreme heatwaves occurred in Adelaide, South Australia, in the summers of 2008 and 2009. Both heatwaves were unique in terms of their duration (15 days and 13 days respectively, and the 2009 heatwave was also remarkable in its intensity with a maximum temperature reaching 45.7°C. It is of interest to compare the health impacts of these two unprecedented heatwaves with those of previous heatwaves in Adelaide. Methods Using case-series analysis, daily morbidity and mortality rates during heatwaves (≥35°C for three or more days occurring in 2008 and 2009 and previous heatwaves occurring between 1993 and 2008 were compared with rates during all non-heatwave days (1 October to 31 March. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs were established for ambulance call-outs, hospital admissions, emergency department presentations and mortality. Dose response effects of heatwave duration and intensity were examined. Results Ambulance call-outs during the extreme 2008 and 2009 events were increased by 10% and 16% respectively compared to 4.4% during previous heatwaves. Overall increases in hospital and emergency settings were marginal, except for emergency department presentations in 2008, but increases in specific health categories were observed. Renal morbidity in the elderly was increased during both heatwaves. During the 2009 heatwave, direct heat-related admissions increased up to 14-fold compared to a three-fold increase seen during the 2008 event and during previous heatwaves. In 2009, marked increases in ischaemic heart disease were seen in the 15-64 year age group. Only the 2009 heatwave was associated with considerable increases in total mortality that particularly affected the 15-64 year age group (1.37; 95% CI, 1.09, 1.71, while older age groups were unaffected. Significant dose-response relationships were observed for heatwave duration (ambulance, hospital and emergency setting and intensity (ambulance and mortality. Conclusions While

  2. Tipping a SPRUCE tree over - how extreme heat and desiccation may push southern boreal species beyond their capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, J.; Childs, J.; Ward, E. J.; Wullschleger, S.; Hanson, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    Since August 2015, the Spruce and Peatland Responses under Climatic and Environmental Change (SPRUCE) climate change experiment (http://mnspruce.ornl.gov/) in Northern Minnesota, USA, has exposed 13 m diameter plots of an ombrotrophic Picea mariana - Ericaceous shrub - Sphagnum bog ecosystem to long-term temperature (T) (0 to +9 °C) and since June 2016, elevated CO2 treatments (ambient or + 500 ppm). In addition to their direct impacts, the T and CO2 treatments have dramatically impacted soil water availability, vapor pressure deficit and # days dew point is reached. We examined plant water relations of Picea mariana (black spruce), Larix laricina (tamarack), and several Ericaceous shrubs including seasonal patterns of water potential (ψ), in addition to sap flow in the in trees. Granier-style thermal dissipation sensors were calibrated in situ (outside plots) by cutting instrumented trees and measuring their actual water uptake. Maximum summer T in N Minnesota reaches 35 °C, and optimal photosynthetic activity for P. mariana at the site peaks between 35-38°C. Treatments have resulted in air T reaching 45°C in the warmest plots resulting in substantial physiological stress. Pretreatment sap flow typically began by late May and was fairly constant over the season until declining in mid-September and ceasing as temperatures dropped below zero. Once the T treatments began, sap flow began earlier in the spring and continued later in the fall indicating an expanded physiological season that can result in plant vulnerability to extreme cold events. Indeed, foliar damage was evident in warmer plots following a spring freeze event in 2016. In addition, the drying heat has resulted in additional foliar damage, indicated by large reductions in predawn water potentials (even in the spring), quicker drying following rain events, and water stress reached earlier in the day. Midday mean summer ψ was -1.5 MPa for P. mariana foliage, higher than the co-occurring L. laricina

  3. A comparison of whole body vibration and moist heat on lower extremity skin temperature and skin blood flow in healthy older individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohman, Everett B; Sackiriyas, Kanikkai Steni Balan; Bains, Gurinder S; Calandra, Giovanni; Lobo, Crystal; Nakhro, Daniel; Malthankar, Gauri; Paul, Sherwine

    2012-07-01

    Tissue healing is an intricate process that is regulated by circulation. Heat modalities have been shown to improve skin circulation. Recent research supports that passive vibration increases circulation without risk of burns. Study purpose is to compare and determine effects of short duration vibration, moist heat, and a combination of the two on skin blood flow (SBF) and skin temperature (ST) in elderly, non-diabetic individuals following short-term exposure. Ten subjects, 3 female and 7 male (55-73 years of age), received two interventions over three days: 1--Active vibration, 2--passive vibration, 3--moist heat, 4--moist heat combined with passive vibration (MHPV), 5--a commercial massaging heating pad, and 6--no intervention. SBF and ST were measured using a MOOR Laser Doppler before and after the intervention and the third measurement were taken 10 minutes following. Mean SBF following a ten-minute intervention were significantly different in the combination of moist heat and passive vibration from the control, active vibration, and the commercial massaging heating pad. Compared to baseline measurements, this resulted in mean SBF elevation to 450% (at conclusion of 10 minutes of intervention) and 379% (10 minutes post). MHPV (p=0.02) showed significant changes in ST from the commercial massaging heating pad, passive vibration, and active vibration interventions. SBF in the lower legs showed greatest increase with MHPV. Interventions should be selected that are low risk while increasing lower extremity skin blood flow.

  4. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-01

    authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the authors’ Agencies. MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR...COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT 2-20 contingent probabilities given their dependence on non-probabilistic emissions futures, have extended the ranges of...flood risk provides confidence in the associated projection as a true minimum value for risk management purposes. The contemporary rate observed by

  5. The contribution of urbanization to recent extreme heat events and white roof mitigation strategy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mingna

    2015-04-01

    The UHI effect can aggravate summertime heat waves and strongly influence human comfort and health, leading to greater mortality in metropolitan areas. Many geo-engineering technological strategies have been proposed to mitigate climate warming, and for the UHI, increasing the albedo of artificial urban surfaces (rooftops or pavements) has been considered a lucrative and effective way to cool cities. The objective of this work is to quantify the contribution of urbanization to recent extreme heat events of the early 21st century in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area, using the mesoscale WRF model coupled with a single urban canopy model and actual urban land cover datasets. This work also investigates a simulation of the regional effects of white roof technology by increasing the albedo of urban areas in the urban canopy model to mitigate the urban heat island, especially in extreme heat waves. The results show that urban land use characteristics that have evolved over the past ~20 years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area have had a significant impact on the extreme temperatures occurring during extreme heat events. Simulations show that new urban development has caused an intensification and expansion of the areas experiencing extreme heat waves with an average increase in temperature of approximately 0.60°C. This change is most obvious at night with an increase up to 0.95°C, for which the total contribution of anthropogenic heat is 34%. We also simulate the effects of geo-engineering strategies increasing the albedo of urban roofs. White roofs reflect a large fraction of incoming sunlight in the daytime, which reduced the net radiation so that the roof surface keep at a lower temperature than regular solar-absorptive roofs. Urban net radiation decreases by approximately 200 W m-2 at local noon because of high solar reflectance of white roofs, which cools the daytime urban temperature afer sunrise, with the largest decrease of almost -0.80

  6. Heat Shock Proteins in Vascular Diabetic Complications: Review and Future Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefania Bellini

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Heat shock proteins (HSPs are a large family of proteins highly conserved throughout evolution because of their unique cytoprotective properties. Besides assisting protein refolding and regulating proteostasis under stressful conditions, HSPs also play an important role in protecting cells from oxidative stress, inflammation, and apoptosis. Therefore, HSPs are crucial in counteracting the deleterious effects of hyperglycemia in target organs of diabetes vascular complications. Changes in HSP expression have been demonstrated in diabetic complications and functionally related to hyperglycemia-induced cell injury. Moreover, associations between diabetic complications and altered circulating levels of both HSPs and anti-HSPs have been shown in clinical studies. HSPs thus represent an exciting therapeutic opportunity and might also be valuable as clinical biomarkers. However, this field of research is still in its infancy and further studies in both experimental diabetes and humans are required to gain a full understanding of HSP relevance. In this review, we summarize current knowledge and discuss future perspective.

  7. Extreme Heat Resistance of Food Borne Pathogens Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli, and Salmonella typhimurium on Chicken Breast Fillet during Cooking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Jong, Aarieke E I; van Asselt, Esther D; Zwietering, Marcel H

    2012-01-01

    cooking enlarged the heat resistance of the food borne pathogens. Additionally, a high challenge temperature or fast heating rate contributed to the level of heat resistance. The data were used to assess the probability of illness (campylobacteriosis) due to consumption of chicken fillet as a function...

  8. Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerreiro, Selma B.; Dawson, Richard J.; Kilsby, Chris; Lewis, Elizabeth; Ford, Alistair

    2018-03-01

    Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate risks due to their agglomeration of people, buildings and infrastructure. Differences in methodology, hazards considered, and climate models used limit the utility and comparability of climate studies on individual cities. Here we assess, for the first time, future changes in flood, heat-waves (HW), and drought impacts for all 571 European cities in the Urban Audit database using a consistent approach. To capture the full range of uncertainties in natural variability and climate models, we use all climate model runs from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the RCP8.5 emissions scenario to calculate Low, Medium and High Impact scenarios, which correspond to the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of each hazard for each city. We find that HW days increase across all cities, but especially in southern Europe, whilst the greatest HW temperature increases are expected in central European cities. For the low impact scenario, drought conditions intensify in southern European cities while river flooding worsens in northern European cities. However, the high impact scenario projects that most European cities will see increases in both drought and river flood risks. Over 100 cities are particularly vulnerable to two or more climate impacts. Moreover, the magnitude of impacts exceeds those previously reported highlighting the substantial challenge cities face to manage future climate risks.

  9. Inventory of future power and heat production technologies; Inventering av framtidens el- och vaermeproduktionstekniker

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekstroem, Clas (Vattenfall Research and Development AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-12-15

    's Water Framework Directive. Combined heat and power with a steam cycle is currently the most cost-effective alternative for biofuel based power production, and it also provides optimal utilization of fuel. The potential here is restricted mainly by the amount of available district heating demands. Gasification with gas turbines or gas engines ensures higher electricity efficiency for plants up to 50 MW, although costs are currently high. Wind power has become competitive owing to fast international expansion, although only on the strength of effective climate-related control measures and measures favouring renewable energy production. Its potential is restricted by the quantities that can be integrated into the electricity network, given that production is reliant on wind conditions. The possibility of storing electricity/energy could increase its usability. Wave power is a promising future alternative, although currently at an early stage of development. Its potential is restricted by the quantities that can be integrated into the electricity network, given that production is entirely reliant on waves. Combined plants with combined heat and power or district heating improve the overall utilization of fuel. Upgrading solid biofuels to pellets is currently a competitive option, and torrefication could prove an interesting option should there be a demand for prolonged storing ability and improved grindability. Pyrolysis oil can be burned in simple plants, and would also enable a cost-effective use of 'problematic' biofuels. Infrastructure and handling must however be adapted to the fact that pyrolysis oil is corrosive and unstable for storing. The competitiveness of all biofuel based automotive fuel alternatives studied pre-supposes that future control measures within the transport sector are equally effective as those currently in place. Under current conditions biogas is a competitive alternative to petrol, but its potential is curbed by the restricted

  10. Projection of the change in future extremes over Japan using a cloud-resolving model: (2) Precipitation Extremes and the results of the NHM-1km experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanada, S.; Nakano, M.; Nakamura, M.; Hayashi, S.; Kato, T.; Kurihara, K.; Sasaki, H.; Uchiyama, T.; Aranami, K.; Honda, Y.; Kitoh, A.

    2008-12-01

    In order to study changes in the regional climate in the vicinity of Japan during the summer rainy season due to global warming, experiments by a semi-cloud resolving non-hydrostatic model with a horizontal resolution of 5km (NHM-5km) have been conducted from June to October by nesting within the results of the 10-year time-integrated experiments using a hydrostatic atmospheric general circulation model with a horizontal grid of 20 km (AGCM-20km: TL959L60) for the present and future up to the year 2100. A non-hydrostatic model developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (JMA-NHM; Saito et al. 2001, 2006) was adopted. Detailed descriptions of the NHM-5km are shown by the poster of Nakano et al. Our results show that rainy days over most of the Japanese Islands will decrease in June and July and increase in August and September in the future climate. Especially, remarkable increases in intense precipitations such as larger than 150 - 300 mm/day are projected from the present to future climate. The 90th percentiles of regional largest values among maximum daily precipitations (R-MDPs) grow 156 to 207 mm/day in the present and future climates, respectively. It is well-known that the horizontal distribution of precipitation, especially the heavy rainfall in the vicinity of Japan, much depends on the topography. Therefore, higher resolution experiments by a cloud-resolving model with a horizontal resolution of 1km (NHM-1km) are one-way nested within the results of NHM-5km. The basic frame and design of the NHM-1km is the same as those of the NHM-5km, but the topography is finer and no cumulus parameterization is used in the NHM-1km experiments. The NHM-1km, which treats the convection and cloud microphysics explicitly, can represent not only horizontal distributions of rainfall in detail but also the 3-dimensional structures of meso-beta-scale convective systems (MCSs). Because of the limitation of computation resources, only heavy rainfall events that rank in top

  11. Case Studies in Low-Energy District Heating Systems: Determination of Dimensioning Methods for Planning the Future Heating Infrastructure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tol, Hakan; Nielsen, Susanne Balslev; Svendsen, Svend

    suggests a plan for an energy efficient District Heating (DH) system with low operating temperatures, such as 55°C supply and 25°C return; connected to low-energy buildings. Different case studies referring to typical DH planning situations could show the rational basis for the integrated planning...... of the future’s sustainable and energy efficient heating infrastructure. In this paper, a case study which focuses on dimensioning method of piping network of low-energy DH system in a new settlement, located in Roskilde Municipality, Denmark, is presented. In addition to the developed dimensioning method......, results about the optimal network layout and substation type for low-energy DH systems are also pointed out regarding to this case study. A second case study, included in this paper, focuses on technical and economical aspects of replacing natural gas heating system to low-energy DH system in an existing...

  12. Heat Stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Publications and Products Programs Contact NIOSH NIOSH HEAT STRESS Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir OSHA-NIOSH ... hot environments may be at risk of heat stress. Exposure to extreme heat can result in occupational ...

  13. The role of heat pump technologies in the design of future sustainable energy systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blarke, Morten Boje; Lund, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    source results in an 8% cost reduction. Furthermore, the operational analysis shows that when a large-scale heat pump is integrated with an existing CHP unit, the projected spot market situation in Nord Pool, which reflects a growing share of wind power and heat-bound power generation electricity......In this paper, it is shown that in support of its ability to improve the overall economic cost-effectiveness and flexibility of the Danish energy system, the financially feasible integration of large-scale heat pumps with existing CHP units, is critically sensitive to the operational mode...... of the heat pump vis-à-vis the operational coefficient of performance (COP), which is set by the temperature level of the heat source. When using only ambient air as the heat source, the total heat production costs increases by about 10%, while the partial use of condensed flue gas from the CHP unit as a heat...

  14. Lowering district heating temperatures – Impact to system performance in current and future Danish energy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ommen, Torben; Markussen, Wiebke Brix; Elmegaard, Brian

    2016-01-01

    CHP (Combined heat and power) production in connection with DH (district heating) systems has previously demonstrated a significant reduction in primary energy consumption. With extended installation of intermittent sustainable sources, such as eg. wind turbines rather than thermal units, the cha......CHP (Combined heat and power) production in connection with DH (district heating) systems has previously demonstrated a significant reduction in primary energy consumption. With extended installation of intermittent sustainable sources, such as eg. wind turbines rather than thermal units...

  15. Application of probabilistic event attribution in the summer heat extremes in the western US to emissions traced to major industrial carbon producers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mera, R. J.; Allen, M. R.; Mote, P.; Ekwurzel, B.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Rupp, D. E.

    2015-12-01

    Heat waves in the western US have become progressively more severe due to increasing relative humidity and nighttime temperatures, increasing the health risks of vulnerable portions of the population, including Latino farmworkers in California's Central Valley and other socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Recent research has shown greenhouse gas emissions doubled the risk of the hottest summer days during the 2000's in the Central Valley, increasing public health risks and costs, and raising the question of which parties are responsible for paying these costs. It has been argued that these costs should not be taken up solely by the general public through taxation, but that additional parties can be considered, including multinational corporations who have extracted and marketed a large proportion of carbon-based fuels. Here, we apply probabilistic event attribution (PEA) to assess the contribution of emissions traced to the world's 90 largest major industrial carbon producers to the severity and frequency of these extreme heat events. Our research uses very large ensembles of regional climate model simulations to calculate fractional attribution of policy-relevant extreme heat variables. We compare a full forcings world with observed greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent to a counter-factual world devoid of carbon pollution from major industrial carbon producers. The results show a discernable fraction of record-setting summer temperatures in the western US during the 2000's can be attributed to emissions sourced from major carbon producers.

  16. Analysis on the Extreme Heat Wave over China around Yangtze River Region in the Summer of 2013 and Its Main Contributing Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the summer of 2013, a rare extreme heat wave occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China. Based on high resolution reanalysis data from ECMWF, comprehensive analyses on the associated atmospheric circulation and the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA were provided. The stable and strong West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH was the direct cause for the heat wave. The WPSH had four westward extensions, which brought about four hot spells in southern China. The South Asia High (SAH at 150 hPa was more eastward and more northward than normal. The strong Hadley circulation in the central and western Pacific and the anomalous easterlies at 500 hPa and 250 hPa in the middle and high latitudes were favorable for more hot days (HDs. The total HDs in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River had close relationships with the zonal wind anomalies in the middle and high latitudes, the SSTA in the Indian Ocean and Pacific, and the dry soil conditions of the Yangtze River Valley in spring and summer. The anomalies of the tropical, subtropical, and polar circulation and the underlying surfaces could be responsible for this extreme heat wave.

  17. Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system.

  18. Management of climatic heat stress risk in construction: a review of practices, methodologies, and future research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowlinson, Steve; Yunyanjia, Andrea; Li, Baizhan; Chuanjingju, Carrie

    2014-05-01

    Climatic heat stress leads to accidents on construction sites brought about by a range of human factors emanating from heat induced illness, and fatigue leading to impaired capability, physical and mental. It is an occupational characteristic of construction work in many climates and the authors take the approach of re-engineering the whole safety management system rather than focusing on incremental improvement, which is current management practice in the construction industry. From a scientific viewpoint, climatic heat stress is determined by six key factors: (1) air temperature, (2) humidity, (3) radiant heat, and (4) wind speed indicating the environment, (5) metabolic heat generated by physical activities, and (6) "clothing effect" that moderates the heat exchange between the body and the environment. By making use of existing heat stress indices and heat stress management processes, heat stress risk on construction sites can be managed in three ways: (1) control of environmental heat stress exposure through use of an action-triggering threshold system, (2) control of continuous work time (CWT, referred by maximum allowable exposure duration) with mandatory work-rest regimens, and (3) enabling self-paced working through empowerment of employees. Existing heat stress practices and methodologies are critically reviewed and the authors propose a three-level methodology for an action-triggering, localized, simplified threshold system to facilitate effective decisions by frontline supervisors. The authors point out the need for "regional based" heat stress management practices that reflect unique climatic conditions, working practices and acclimatization propensity by local workers indifferent geographic regions. The authors set out the case for regional, rather than international, standards that account for this uniqueness and which are derived from site-based rather than laboratory-based research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Extremely porous, ultralight, highly heat insulating: Aerogel - light weight aggregate of the future?; Extrem poroes, ultraleicht, hoch waermedaemmend. Aerogel - Leichtzuschlag der Zukunft?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaenssmantel, Juergen [Ingenieurbuero Gaenssmantel, Ingenieurdienstleistung zum Nachhaltigen Bauen, Dormettingen (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    The word element 'gel' in the term 'aerogel' is associated with a sticky paste in which air ('aero') is included. In reality, it is a dry modern 'designer material' with improved properties (thermal insulation, sound insulation, transparency, water-repellent). In the Guinness Book of Records, it is listed as the 'best insulator' and the 'lightest solid'. It is a material of which the dreams of developers of insulating materials are made.

  20. Development of National Future Extreme Heat Scenario to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Cresson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G.

    2013-01-01

    The project's emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of EHEs to facilitate public health studies. We focus on the daily to weekly time scales on which EHEs occur, not on decadal-scale climate changes. There is, however, a very strong connection between air temperature patterns at the two time scales and long-term climatic changes will certainly alter the frequency of EHEs.

  1. Combined generation of electric and heating energy in future development of Yugoslav energy sector until 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Djajic, Nenad; Zivanovic, Vladimir

    2000-01-01

    Development of the district heating system in the FR Yugoslavia, beside the combined generation of electric and heating energy presents a necessity for energy, economic and ecological reasons. Although the structure of energy reserves is rather unfavourable considering that the lignite is being predominantly used, available reserves of energy raw material are able to ensure the long-term development of Yugoslav energy sector, and to offer real possibilities for considerable substitution of foreign good quality fuels, especially in district heating systems. Their further development will depend, among other things: on the implementation of new technological solutions for the exploitation of local energy resources; need of reconstruction, revitalisation and transformation of old condensing thermal power plants into the cogeneration plants; installation of remote controlled transmission of heating energy as well as on development of heating plants and smaller co-generation plants based on local energy resources. (Authors)

  2. Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to extreme events: Climate change implications (Conference paper)

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A.; Pfenninger, S.; Lilliestam, J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight -- thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) -- and identify critical extreme event vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabili...

  3. The study on the role of very high temperature reactor and nuclear process heat utilization in future energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yasukawa, Shigeru; Mankin, Shuichi; Sato, Osamu; Tadokoro, Yoshihiro; Nakano, Yasuyuki; Nagano, Takao; Yamaguchi, Kazuo; Ueno, Seiichi.

    1987-11-01

    The objectives of the systems analysis study on ''The Role of High Temperature Nuclear Heat in Future Energy Systems'' under the cooperative research program between Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology are to analyze the effect and the impact of introduction of high temperature nuclear heat in Japanese long-term energy systems aiming at zero environmental emissions from view points of energy supply/demand, economy progress, and environmental protection, and to show the potentials of involved technologies and to extract the associated problems necessary for research and developments. This report describes the results being obtained in these three years from 1985. The present status of our energy system are explained at first, then, our findings concerning on analytical approach, method for analysis, view points to the future, scenario state space, reference energy systems, evolving technologies in it, and results analyzed are described. (author)

  4. Extreme Heat Resistance of Food Borne Pathogens Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli, and Salmonella typhimurium on Chicken Breast Fillet during Cooking

    OpenAIRE

    de Jong, Aarieke E. I.; van Asselt, Esther D.; Zwietering, Marcel H.; Nauta, Maarten J.; de Jonge, Rob

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this research was to determine the decimal reduction times of bacteria present on chicken fillet in boiling water. The experiments were conducted with Campylobacter jejuni, Salmonella, and Escherichia coli. Whole chicken breast fillets were inoculated with the pathogens, stored overnight (4∘C), and subsequently cooked. The surface temperature reached 70∘C within 30 sec and 85∘C within one minute. Extremely high decimal reduction times of 1.90, 1.97, and 2.20 min were obtained fo...

  5. Extreme Halophiles and Carbon Monoxide: Looking Through Windows at Earth's Past and Towards a Future on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, G.

    2015-12-01

    Carbon monoxide, which is ubiquitous on Earth, is the 2nd most abundant molecule in the universe. Members of the domain Bacteria have long been known to oxidize it, and activities of CO oxidizers in soils have been known for several decades to contribute to tropospheric CO regulation. Nonetheless, the diversity of CO oxidizers and their evolutionary history remain largely unknown. A molybdenum-dependent dehydrogenase (Mo-CODH) couples CO oxidation by most terrestrial and marine bacteria to either O2 or nitrate. Molybdenum dependence, the requirement for O2 and previous phylogenetic inferences have all supported a relatively late evolution for "aerobic" CO oxidation, presumably after the Great Oxidation Event (GOE) about 2.3 Gya. Although conundrums remain, recent discoveries suggest that Mo-CODH might have evolved before the GOE, and prior to the Bacteria-Archaea split. New phylogenetic analyses incorporating sequences from extremely halophilic CO-oxidizing Euryarchaeota isolated from salterns in the Atacama Desert, brines on Hawai`i and from the Bonneville Salt Flat suggest that Mo-CODH was present in an ancestor shared by Bacteria and Archaea. This observation is consistent with results of phylogenetic histories of genes involved in Mo-cofactor synthesis, and findings by others that Mo-nitrogenase was likely active > 3 Gya. Thus, analyses of Mo-dependent CO oxidizers provide a window on the past by raising questions about the availability of Mo and non-O2 electron acceptors. Extremely halophilic CO oxidizers also provide insights relevant for understanding the potential for extraterrestrial life. CO likely occurred at high concentrations in Mars' early atmosphere, and it occurs presently at about 800 ppm. At such high concentrations, CO represents one of the most abundant energy sources available for near-surface regolith. However, use of CO by an extant or transplanted Mars microbiota would require tolerance of low water potentials and high salt concentrations

  6. Fuels for the oil-fuelled heating system of the future; Brennstoffe fuer die Oelheiztechnik der Zukunft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rheinberg, O. van [Oel-Waerme-Institut GmbH, An-Institut der RWTH Aachen, Herzogenrath (Germany). Abt. Energietraeger

    2011-02-15

    For ecological and political reasons bio-heating-oil of up to 10.9 vol.% of Fatty-Acid-Methyl-Ester (FAME) is available in the market. For new installations the appliance industry has approved their products for the use of this bio-heating-oil. For existing oil firing plants minor changes are necessary. These are the use of qualified oil burner pumps, oil tubes, oil pre-filter and the change to single chord system in order to avoid the continuous circulation of heating oil. Due to the chemical and physical properties an admixture of up to 20.9 vol.% of FAME in heating oil sulphur low is feasible. One of the main requirements to introduce such fuel in the market is the guarantee of storage stability over several years even by such high levels of FAME. To reach this goal an accurate predictability of fuel stability and different actions for the stabilisation of such bio-heating oil are necessary. Hence several investigations are undertaken at Oel-Waerme-Institut to ensure higher levels of FAME or of other alternative fuels in the future. (orig.)

  7. Future European Temperature change uncertainties reduced by using land heat flux observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegehuis, A.I.; Teuling, A.J.; Ciais, P.; Vautard, R.; Jung, M.

    2013-01-01

    The variability of European summer climate is expected to increase in the next century due to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, likely resulting in more frequent and more extreme droughts and heatwaves. However, climate models diverge on the magnitude of these processes, due to

  8. Thermal analysis of hybrid single-phase, two-phase and heat pump thermal control system (TCS) for future spacecraft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, S.H.; Mudawar, I.; Hasan, Mohammad M.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Hybrid Thermal Control System (H-TCS) is proposed for future spacecraft. • Thermodynamic performance of H-TCS is examined for different space missions. • Operational modes including single-phase, two-phase and heat pump are explored. • R134a is deemed most appropriate working fluid. - Abstract: An urgent need presently exists to develop a new class of versatile spacecraft capable of conducting different types of missions and enduring varying gravitational and temperature environments, including Lunar, Martian and Near Earth Object (NEOs). This study concerns the spacecraft's Thermal Control System (TCS), which tackles heat acquisition, especially from crew and avionics, heat transport, and ultimate heat rejection by radiation. The primary goal of the study is to explore the design and thermal performance of a Hybrid Thermal Control System (H-TCS) that would satisfy the diverse thermal requirements of the different space missions. The H-TCS must endure both ‘cold’ and ‘hot’ environments, reduce weight and size, and enhance thermodynamic performance. Four different operational modes are considered: single-phase, two-phase, basic heat pump and heat pump with liquid-side, suction-side heat exchanger. A thermodynamic trade study is conducted for six different working fluids to assess important performance parameters including mass flow rate of the working fluid, maximum pressure, radiator area, compressor/pump work, and coefficient of performance (COP). R134a is determined to be most suitable based on its ability to provide a balanced compromise between reducing flow rate and maintaining low system pressure, and a moderate coefficient of performance (COP); this fluid is also both nontoxic and nonflammable, and features zero ozone depletion potential (ODP) and low global warming potential (GWP). It is shown how specific mission stages dictate which mode of operation is most suitable, and this information is used to size the radiator for the

  9. Simulated Extreme Prepitation Indices over Northeast Brasil in Current Climate and Future Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wender Santiago Marinho, Marcos; Araújo Costa, Alexandre; Cassain Sales, Domingo; Oliveira Guimarães, Sullyandro; Mariano da Silva, Emerson; das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation indices, for present and future modeled climates over Northeast of Brazil (NEB), from CORDEX simulations over the domain of Tropical Americas. The period for the model validation was from 1989-2007, using data from the European Center (ECWMF) Reanalysis, ERA-INTERIM, as input to drive the regional model (RAMS 6.0). Reanalysis data were assimilated via both lateral boundaries and the entire domain (a much weaker "central nudging"). Six indices of extreme precipitation were calculated over NEB: the average number of days above 10, 20 and 30 mm in one year (R10, R20, R30), the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) and the maximum rainfall in five consecutive days (RX5). Those indices were compared against two independent databases: MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission). After validation, climate simulations were performed for the present climate (1985-2005) and short-term (2015-2035), mid-term (2045-2065) and long-term (2079 to 2099) future climates for two scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, nesting RAMS into HadGEM2-ES global model (a participant of CMIP5). Along with the indices, we also calculated Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) to study the behavior of daily precipitation in the present and by the end of the 21st century (2079 to 2099) to assess possible changes under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The regional model is capable of representing relatively well the extreme precipitation indices for current climate, but there is some difficulties in performing a proper validation since the observed databases disagree significantly. Future projections show significant changes in most extreme indices. Rnn generally tend to increase, especially under RCP8.5. More significant changes are projected for the long-term period, under RCP8.5, which shows a pronounced R30 enhancement over northern states. CDD tends

  10. Future flood risk in the tropics as measured by changes in extreme runoff intensity is strongly influenced by plant-physiological responses to rising CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooperman, G. J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Koven, C.; Lindsay, K. T.; Swann, A. L. S.; Randerson, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of intense flooding events, and thus the risk of flood-related mortality, infrastructure damage, and economic loss. Assessments of future flooding from global climate models based only on precipitation intensity and temperature neglect important processes that occur within the land-surface, particularly the impacts of plant-physiological responses to rising CO2. Higher CO2 reduces stomatal conductance, leading to less water loss through transpiration and higher soil moisture. For a given precipitation rate, higher soil moisture decreases the amount of rainwater that infiltrates the surface and increases runoff. Here we assess the relative impacts of plant-physiological and radiative-greenhouse effects on changes in extreme runoff intensity over tropical continents using the Community Earth System Model. We find that extreme percentile rates increase significantly more than mean runoff in response to higher CO2. Plant-physiological effects contribute to only a small increase in precipitation intensity, but are a dominant driver of runoff intensification, contributing to one-half of the 99th percentile runoff intensity change and one-third of the 99.9th percentile change. Comprehensive assessments of future flooding risk need to account for the physiological as well as radiative impacts of CO2 in order to better inform flood prediction and mitigation practices.

  11. Comparison of past and future Mediterranean high and low extremes of precipitation and river flow projected using different statistical downscaling methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Quintana-Seguí

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The extremes of precipitation and river flow obtained using three different statistical downscaling methods applied to the same regional climate simulation have been compared. The methods compared are the anomaly method, quantile mapping and a weather typing. The hydrological model used in the study is distributed and it is applied to the Mediterranean basins of France. The study shows that both quantile mapping and weather typing methods are able to reproduce the high and low precipitation extremes in the region of interest. The study also shows that when the hydrological model is forced with these downscaled data, there are important differences in the outputs. This shows that the model amplifies the differences and that the downscaling of other atmospheric variables might be very relevant when simulating river discharges. In terms of river flow, the method of the anomalies, which is very simple, performs better than expected. The methods produce qualitatively similar future scenarios of the extremes of river flow. However, quantitatively, there are still significant differences between them for each individual gauging station. According to these scenarios, it is expected that in the middle of the 21st century (2035–2064, the monthly low flows will have diminished almost everywhere in the region of our study by as much as 20 %. Regarding high flows, there will be important increases in the area of the Cévennes, which is already seriously affected by flash-floods. For some gauging stations in this area, the frequency of what was a 10-yr return flood at the end of the 20th century is expected to increase, with such return floods then occurring every two years in the middle of the 21st century. Similarly, the 10-yr return floods at that time are expected to carry 100 % more water than the 10-yr return floods experienced at the end of the 20th century. In the northern part of the Rhône basin, these extremes will be reduced.

  12. Combined Heat and Power: Effective Energy Solutions for a Sustainable Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shipley, Ms. Anna [Sentech, Inc.; Hampson, Anne [Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., an ICF Company; Hedman, Mr. Bruce [Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., an ICF Company; Garland, Patricia W [ORNL; Bautista, Paul [Sentech, Inc.

    2008-12-01

    Combined Heat and Power (CHP) solutions represent a proven and effective near-term energy option to help the United States enhance energy efficiency, ensure environmental quality, promote economic growth, and foster a robust energy infrastructure. Using CHP today, the United States already avoids more than 1.9 Quadrillion British thermal units (Quads) of fuel consumption and 248 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions annually compared to traditional separate production of electricity and thermal energy. This CO{sub 2} reduction is the equivalent of removing more than 45 million cars from the road. In addition, CHP is one of the few options in the portfolio of energy alternatives that combines environmental effectiveness with economic viability and improved competitiveness. This report describes in detail the four key areas where CHP has proven its effectiveness and holds promise for the future as an: (1) Environmental Solution: Significantly reducing CO{sub 2} emissions through greater energy efficiency; (2) Competitive Business Solution: Increasing efficiency, reducing business costs, and creating green-collar jobs; (3) Local Energy Solution: Deployable throughout the US; and (4) Infrastructure Modernization Solution: Relieving grid congestion and improving energy security. CHP should be one of the first technologies deployed for near-term carbon reductions. The cost-effectiveness and near-term viability of widespread CHP deployment place the technology at the forefront of practical alternative energy solutions such as wind, solar, clean coal, biofuels, and nuclear power. Clear synergies exist between CHP and most other technologies that dominate the energy and environmental policy dialogue in the country today. As the Nation transforms how it produces, transports, and uses the many forms of energy, it must seize the clear opportunity afforded by CHP in terms of climate change, economic competitiveness, energy security, and infrastructure

  13. Extremely low genetic diversity across mangrove taxa reflects past sea level changes and hints at poor future responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zixiao; Li, Xinnian; He, Ziwen; Yang, Yuchen; Wang, Wenqing; Zhong, Cairong; Greenberg, Anthony J; Wu, Chung-I; Duke, Norman C; Shi, Suhua

    2018-04-01

    The projected increases in sea levels are expected to affect coastal ecosystems. Tropical communities, anchored by mangrove trees and having experienced frequent past sea level changes, appear to be vibrant at present. However, any optimism about the resilience of these ecosystems is premature because the impact of past climate events may not be reflected in the current abundance. To assess the impact of historical sea level changes, we conducted an extensive genetic diversity survey on the Indo-Malayan coast, a hotspot with a large global mangrove distribution. A survey of 26 populations in six species reveals extremely low genome-wide nucleotide diversity and hence very small effective population sizes (N e ) in all populations. Whole-genome sequencing of three mangrove species further shows the decline in N e to be strongly associated with the speed of past changes in sea level. We also used a recent series of flooding events in Yalong Bay, southern China, to test the robustness of mangroves to sea level changes in relation to their genetic diversity. The events resulted in the death of half of the mangrove trees in this area. Significantly, less genetically diverse mangrove species suffered much greater destruction. The dieback was accompanied by a drastic reduction in local invertebrate biodiversity. We thus predict that tropical coastal communities will be seriously endangered as the global sea level rises. Well-planned coastal development near mangrove forests will be essential to avert this crisis. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. The role of atmospheric diagnosis and Big Data science in improving hydroclimatic extreme prediction and the merits of climate informed prediction for future water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Mengqian; Lall, Upmanu

    2017-04-01

    The threats that hydroclimatic extremes pose to sustainable development, safety and operation of infrastructure are both severe and growing. Recent heavy precipitation triggered flood events in many regions and increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation suggested by various climate projections highlight the importance of understanding the associated hydrometeorological patterns and space-time variability of such extreme events, and developing a new approach to improve predictability with a better estimation of uncertainty. This clear objective requires the optimal utility of Big Data analytics on multi-source datasets to extract informative predictors from the complex ocean-atmosphere coupled system and develop a statistical and physical based framework. The proposed presentation includes the essence of our selected works in the past two years, as part of our Global Floods Initiatives. Our approach for an improved extreme prediction begins with a better understanding of the associated atmospheric circulation patterns, under the influence and regulation of slowly changing oceanic boundary conditions [Lu et al., 2013, 2016a; Lu and Lall, 2016]. The study of the associated atmospheric circulation pattern and the regulation of teleconnected climate signals adopted data science techniques and statistical modeling recognizing the nonstationarity and nonlinearity of the system, as the underlying statistical assumptions of the classical extreme value frequency analysis are challenged in hydroclimatic studies. There are two main factors that are considered important for understanding how future flood risk will change. One is the consideration of moisture holding capacity as a function of temperature, as suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The other is the strength of the convergence or convection associated with extreme precipitation. As convergence or convection gets stronger, rain rates can be expected to increase if the moisture is available. For

  15. Future weather types and their influence on mean and extreme climate indices for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulf Riediger

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In Central Europe, the spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation and temperature are determined by the occurrence of major weather types. In this paper, we examine climate indices (i.e. mean values or hot, cold, wet and dry days for different weather types in a recent (1971–2000 and future climate (2070–2099. The weather types are classified objectively for the control run and for the A1B scenario with an ensemble of eight global climate simulations (GCM to be compared with different reanalyses. To derive climate indices, the high-resolution, regionalized reference dataset HYRAS and an ensemble of nine regional climate simulations (RCM are used. Firstly, the reliability of simulated weather patterns and their climate indices are tested in the control period. The reanalyses circulation climatology can be reproduced well by the GCM ensemble mean. For temperature and precipitation, each climate index is characterized and evaluated in terms of defined weather patterns. The comparison of HYRAS and RCM data show reliable mean temperature values with differences between weather classes by +2$+2$ to -6$-6$ °C during winter (13 to 19 °C in summer. The analysis of observed and simulated precipitation reveal that mean winter precipitation is significantly influenced by the direction of air flow, while in summer, mesoscale atmospheric patterns of cyclonic rotation play a larger role. Secondly, the analysis of potential future changes simulated by the RCM ensemble were able to demonstrate that weather type changes, superior climate trends (such as mean warming and their interaction lead to major changes for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe. While temperature differences between cold and warm weather types are nearly stable over time, the ensemble temperature changes (with a range of +2$+2$ to +4$+4$ °C reinforce warm/hot conditions in the future winter and summer. Milder, wetter winters can be explained by an increased

  16. Liquid Fuel from Heat-Loving Microorganisms: H2-Dependent Conversion of CO2 to Liquid Electrofuels by Extremely Thermophilic Archaea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-07-01

    Electrofuels Project: NC State is working with the University of Georgia to create Electrofuels from primitive organisms called extremophiles that evolved before photosynthetic organisms and live in extreme, hot water environments with temperatures ranging from 167-212 degrees Fahrenheit The team is genetically engineering these microorganisms so they can use hydrogen to turn carbon dioxide directly into alcohol-based fuels. High temperatures are required to distill the biofuels from the water where the organisms live, but the heat-tolerant organisms will continue to thrive even as the biofuels are being distilled—making the fuel-production process more efficient. The microorganisms don’t require light, so they can be grown anywhere—inside a dark reactor or even in an underground facility.

  17. Swedish district heating—A system in stagnation: Current and future trends in the district heating sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magnusson, Dick

    2012-01-01

    This paper argues that Sweden’s old and established district heating sector is heading into a stagnation phase. The aim is to analyse the factors influencing this development as well as the strategies used by involved parties to prevent stagnation. Using large technical system theory, I analyse internal and external factors potentially causing stagnation. The most obvious external factors are: an increase in the number of energy-efficient buildings, in response to stricter energy policies, which reduces the future potential for district heating in new and existing buildings; climate change; competition from other heating systems; and market saturation in the key sector, multi-dwelling buildings. The main internal factor is changed business strategies following electricity market deregulation, when energy companies were supposed to be run on businesslike terms. I also argue that stagnation can be defined as occurring when the key measure feature of a system, in this case, heat load is starting to stagnate or decline, even though the trend is positive in other areas. The strategies for avoiding stagnation are various forms of broadening scope, primarily by focusing more on electricity production by building combined heat and power plants, or using the alternative value of the technical system for new applications. - Highlights: ► The Swedish district heating sector is heading into a stage of stagnation. ► The main reasons are: climate change, competition and energy efficient buildings. ► Strategies to change trend: broadening of scope by focusing on electricity in CHP plants. ► Contribution to Large Technical Systems—theory and the later phases of system development.

  18. Extreme warmth and heat-stressed plankton in the tropics during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieling, Joost; Gebhardt, Holger; Huber, Matthew; Adekeye, Olabisi A; Akande, Samuel O; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Middelburg, Jack J; Schouten, Stefan; Sluijs, Appy

    2017-03-01

    Global ocean temperatures rapidly warmed by ~5°C during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~56 million years ago). Extratropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) met or exceeded modern subtropical values. With these warm extratropical temperatures, climate models predict tropical SSTs >35°C-near upper physiological temperature limits for many organisms. However, few data are available to test these projected extreme tropical temperatures or their potential lethality. We identify the PETM in a shallow marine sedimentary section deposited in Nigeria. On the basis of planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios and the molecular proxy [Formula: see text], latest Paleocene equatorial SSTs were ~33°C, and [Formula: see text] indicates that SSTs rose to >36°C during the PETM. This confirms model predictions on the magnitude of polar amplification and refutes the tropical thermostat theory. We attribute a massive drop in dinoflagellate abundance and diversity at peak warmth to thermal stress, showing that the base of tropical food webs is vulnerable to rapid warming.

  19. Pulsed Laser Techniques in Laser Heated Diamond Anvil Cells for Studying Methane (CH4) and Water (H2O) at Extreme Pressures and Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtgrewe, N.; Lobanov, S.; Mahmood, M.; Goncharov, A. F.

    2017-12-01

    Scientific advancement in the fields of high pressure material synthesis and research on planetary interiors rely heavily on a variety of techniques for probing such extreme conditions, such as laser-heating diamond anvil cells (LHDACs) (Goncharov et al., J. Synch. Rad., 2009) and shock compression (Nellis et al., J. Chem. Phys., 2001/ Armstrong et al., Appl. Phys. Lett., 2008). However, certain chemical properties can create complications in the detection of such extreme states, for example the instability of energetic materials, and detection of these dynamic chemical states by time-resolved methods has proven to be valuable in exploring the kinetics of these materials. Current efforts at the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) for exploring the transitions between different phases of condensed matter (Armstrong et. al., APS Mar. Meeting, 2017/ Radousky et al., APS Mar. Meeting, 2017), and X-ray synchrotron pulsed heating are useful techniques but require large facilities and are not always accessible. Instead, optical properties of materials can serve as a window into the state or structure of species through electronic absorption properties. Pump-probe spectroscopy can be used to detect these electronic properties in time and allow the user to develop a picture of complex dynamic chemical events. Here we present data acquired up to 1.5 megabar (Mbar) pressures and temperatures >3000 K using pulsed transmission/reflective spectroscopy combined with a pulsed LHDAC and time-resolved detection (streak camera) (McWilliams et. al., PNAS, 2015/ McWilliams et al., PRL, 2016). Time-resolved optical properties will be presented on methane (CH4) and water (H2O) at P-T conditions found in icy bodies such as Uranus and Neptune (Lee and Scandolo, Nature Comm., 2011). Our results show that the interiors of Uranus and Neptune are optically opaque at P-T conditions corresponding to the mantles of these icy bodies, which has implications for the unusual magnetic fields of these

  20. Modernizing residential heating in Russia: End-use practices, legal developments, and future prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korppoo, Anna; Korobova, Nina

    2012-01-01

    This article explores the significance of modernization policies concerning Russia’s technically obsolete but socially important residential heating sector, focusing on the 2009 energy efficiency framework law and its prospects for implementation. Ownership and control structures are in flux throughout the heating sector chain. Inefficiencies, causing low service quality and rising prices, have already started eroding the market share of district heating, despite its potential benefits. End-use management practices – such as lack of metering, communal billing, and low prices that do not cover production costs – reduce consumer incentives to cut consumption. The diversity of end-users adds to the complexity of focused measures like energy-saving contracts. However, end-use sector reforms such as mandatory meter installation and increasing prices – even if socially acceptable and fully implemented – cannot alone provide the massive investments required. More appropriate is sector-wide reform with the government’s financial participation – especially if consumer efforts can yield better service quality. - Highlights: ► We analyze Russia’s energy efficiency policy on residential heating sector. ► Institutional structures and practices reduce incentives to cut consumption. ► Meter installation and increasing prices cannot deliver investments required. ► Government led sector-wide reform is required, linked to better service quality.

  1. Creation of nuclear heating plants in Russia: present status and prospects for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gureeva, L.V.; Kurachenkov, A.V.

    1998-01-01

    History of heating reactor developments in two sites, Gorky and Voronezh, using AST-500 was reviewed. After interruption of construction for several years, decisions were made to resume the constructions. At Voronezh, based on the environmental assessment and the review of the IAEA OSART mission, the construction was resumed in 1996. In the course of construction resumption, design upgrading has been implemented in the following aspects: reclassification of station-level equipment concerning its importance for safety; control and instrumentation systems retrofitting with reliance on new generation element bases; application of self-actuated safety devices; and implementation of additional instrumentation for extended operating conditions. In Tomsk, Siberia, feasibility study is underway, which aims to replace the currently operating reactors with a twin-unit heating stations with AST-500 in order to provide heat to the district heating grids. In the study the NHP design is being assessed by a joint Russian-American Study Team from evaluation criteria such as design applicability and constructability, maturity of the design, safety aspects, technical uncertainty, available infrastructure, engineering and construction capabilities, site suitability, cost and schedule. Positive possibilities are foreseen to reuse the components previously delivered to the Gorky site, according to the assessments of structures and technological tools necessary for the re-erection work were, man-power needed for the equipment dismantling, inspection and re-erection and storage conditions. The construction cost is estimated as US$446 per KW(th). (author)

  2. Evidence of prehistoric flooding and the potential for future extreme flooding at Coyote Wash, Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glancy, P.A.

    1994-01-01

    Coyote Wash, an approximately 0.3-square-mile drainage on the eastern flank of Yucca Mountain, is the potential location for an exploratory shaft to evaluate the suitability of Yucca Mountain for construction of an underground repository for the storage of high-level radioactive wastes. An ongoing investigation is addressing the potential for hazards to the site and surrounding areas from flooding and related fluvial-debris movement. Unconsolidated sediments in and adjacent to the channel of North Fork Coyote Wash were examined for evidence of past floods. Trenches excavated across and along the valley bottom exposed multiple flood deposits, including debris-flow deposits containing boulders as large as 2 to 3 feet in diameter. Most of the alluvial deposition probably occurred during the late Quaternary. Deposits at the base of the deepest trench overlie bedrock and underlie stream terraces adjacent to the channel; these sediments are moderately indurated and probably were deposited during the late Pleistocene. Overlying nonindurated deposits clearly are younger and may be of Holocene age. This evidence of intense flooding during the past indicates that severe flooding and debris movement are possible in the future. Empirical estimates of large floods of the past range from 900 to 2,600 cubic feet per second from the 0.094-square-mile drainage area of North Fork Coyote Wash drainage at two proposed shaft sites. Current knowledge indicates that mixtures of water and debris are likely to flow from North Fork Coyote Wash at rates up to 2,500 cubic feet per second. South Fork Coyote Wash, which has similar basin area and hydraulic characteristics, probably will have concurrent floods of similar magnitudes. The peak flow of the two tributaries probably would combine near the potential sites for the exploratory shaft to produce future flow of water and accompanying debris potentially as large as 5,000 cubic feet per second

  3. Potential Remedies for the High Synchrotron-Radiation-Induced Heat Load for Future Highest-Energy-Proton Circular Colliders

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2084568; Baglin, Vincent; Schaefers, Franz

    2015-01-01

    We propose a new method for handling the high synchrotron radiation (SR) induced heat load of future circular hadron colliders (like FCC-hh). FCC-hh are dominated by the production of SR, which causes a significant heat load on the accelerator walls. Removal of such a heat load in the cold part of the machine, as done in the Large Hadron Collider, will require more than 100 MW of electrical power and a major cooling system. We studied a totally different approach, identifying an accelerator beam screen whose illuminated surface is able to forward reflect most of the photons impinging onto it. Such a reflecting beam screen will transport a significant part of this heat load outside the cold dipoles. Then, in room temperature sections, it could be more efficiently dissipated. Here we will analyze the proposed solution and address its full compatibility with all other aspects an accelerator beam screen must fulfill to keep under control beam instabilities as caused by electron cloud formation, impedance, dynamic...

  4. Micro-Columnated Loop Heat Pipe: The Future of Electronic Substrates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhillon, Navdeep Singh

    The modern world is run by semiconductor-based electronic systems. Due to continuous improvements in semiconductor device fabrication, there is a clear trend in the market towards the development of electronic devices and components that not only deliver enhanced computing power, but are also more compact. Thermal management has emerged as the primary challenge in this scenario where heat flux dissipation of electronic chips is increasing exponentially, but conventional cooling solutions such as conduction and convection are no longer feasible. To keep device junction temperatures within the safe operating limit, there is an urgent requirement for ultra-high-conductivity thermal substrates that not only absorb and transport large heat fluxes, but can also provide localized cooling to thermal hotspots. This dissertation describes the design, modeling, and fabrication of a phase change-based, planar, ultra-thin, passive thermal transport system that is inspired by the concept of loop heat pipes and capillary pumped loops. Fabricated on silicon and Pyrex wafers using microfabrication techniques, the micro-columnated loop heat pipe (muCLHP) can be integrated directly with densely packed or multiply-stacked electronic substrates, to provide localized high-heat-flux thermal management. The muCLHP employs a dual-scale coherent porous silicon(CPS)-based micro-columnated wicking structure, where the primary CPS wick provides large capillary forces for fluid transport, while a secondary surface-wick maximizes the rate of thin-film evaporation. To overcome the wick thickness limitation encountered in conventional loop heat pipes, strategies based on MEMS surface micromachining techniques were developed to reduce parasitic heat flow from the evaporator to the compensation chamber of the device. Finite element analysis was used to confirm this reduction in a planar evaporator design, thus enabling the generation of a large motive temperature head for continuous device operation

  5. Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Beverly E

    2014-12-01

    Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. A Review of the Experimental and Modeling Development of a Water Phase Change Heat Exchanger for Future Exploration Support Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cognata, Thomas; Leimkuehler, Thomas; Ramaswamy, Balasubramaniam; Nayagam, Vedha; Hasan, Mohammad; Stephan, Ryan

    2011-01-01

    Water affords manifold benefits for human space exploration. Its properties make it useful for the storage of thermal energy as a Phase Change Material (PCM) in thermal control systems, in radiation shielding against Solar Particle Events (SPE) for the protection of crew members, and it is indisputably necessary for human life support. This paper envisions a single application for water which addresses these benefits for future exploration support vehicles and it describes recent experimental and modeling work that has been performed in order to arrive at a description of the thermal behavior of such a system. Experimental units have been developed and tested which permit the evaluation of the many parameters of design for such a system with emphasis on the latent energy content, temperature rise, mass, and interstitial material geometry. The experimental results are used to develop a robust and well correlated model which is intended to guide future design efforts toward the multi-purposed water PCM heat exchanger envisioned.

  7. Comparison of strategies for model predictive control for home heating in future energy systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vogler-Finck, Pierre Jacques Camille; Popovski, Petar; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2017-01-01

    Model predictive control is seen as one of the key future enabler in increasing energy efficiency in buildings. This paper presents a comparison of the performance of the control for different formulations of the objective function. This comparison is made in a simulation study on a single buildi...

  8. Mitigation potential of horizontal ground coupled heat pumps for current and future climatic conditions: UK environmental modelling and monitoring studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García González, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Gan, Guohui; Wu, Yupeng; Hughes, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Blyth, Eleanor; Finch, Jon; Main, Bruce

    2010-05-01

    model predictions of soil moisture content and soil temperature with measurements at different GCHP locations over the UK. The combined effect of environment dynamics and horizontal GCHP technical properties on long-term GCHP performance will be assessed using a detailed land surface model (JULES: Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, Meteorological Office, UK) with additional equations embedded describing the interaction between GCHP heat exchangers and the surrounding soil. However, a number of key soil physical processes are currently not incorporated in JULES, such as groundwater flow, which, especially in lowland areas, can have an important effect on the heat flow between soil and HE. Furthermore, the interaction between HE and soil may also cause soil vapour and moisture fluxes. These will affect soil thermal conductivity and hence heat flow between the HE and the surrounding soil, which will in turn influence system performance. The project will address these issues. We propose to drive an improved version of JULES (with equations to simulate GCHP exchange embedded), with long-term gridded (1 km) atmospheric, soil and vegetation data (reflecting current and future environmental conditions) to reliably assess the mitigation potential of GCHPs over the entire domain of the UK, where uptake of GCHPs has been low traditionally. In this way we can identify areas that are most suitable for the installation of GCHPs. Only then recommendations can be made to local and regional governments, for example, on how to improve the mitigation potential in less suitable areas by adjusting GCHP configurations or design.

  9. Fusion performances and alpha heating in future JET D-T plasmas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balet, B; Cordey, J G; Gibson, A; Lomas, P; Stubberfield, P M; Thomas, P [Commission of the European Communities, Abingdon (United Kingdom). JET Joint Undertaking

    1994-07-01

    The new pump divertor installed at JET should allow high performance pulses of a few seconds duration by both preventing the impurity influx and controlling the density evolution. The TRANSP code has been used in a predictive mode to assess the possible fusion performance of such plasmas fuelled with a 50:50 mixture of D and T, and the effect of alpha particles heating on Te and Ti. Several cases are considered: 50:50 D-T mix; 50:50 D-T mix, no C bloom; 50:50 D-T mix, VH phase, density control; 50:50 D-T mix, VH phase, density control, 6 Ma. The predictions show that if the the bloom and MHD instabilities can be controlled at higher plasma currents using a higher toroidal field to keep a reasonable beta value, then a higher fusion performance steady state plasma with Q{sub DT} superior to 2.5 should be possible. The alpha heating power of 4.9 MW would lead to a 74% increase in Te. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  10. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  11. Future Projection with an Extreme-Learning Machine and Support Vector Regression of Reference Evapotranspiration in a Mountainous Inland Watershed in North-West China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenliang Yin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to project future variability of reference evapotranspiration (ET0 using artificial intelligence methods, constructed with an extreme-learning machine (ELM and support vector regression (SVR in a mountainous inland watershed in north-west China. Eight global climate model (GCM outputs retrieved from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 were employed to downscale monthly ET0 for the historical period 1960–2005 as a validation approach and for the future period 2010–2099 as a projection of ET0 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The following conclusions can be drawn: the ELM and SVR methods demonstrate a very good performance in estimating Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO-56 Penman–Monteith ET0. Variation in future ET0 mainly occurs in the spring and autumn seasons, while the summer and winter ET0 changes are moderately small. Annually, the ET0 values were shown to increase at a rate of approximately 7.5 mm, 7.5 mm, 0.0 mm (8.2 mm, 15.0 mm, 15.0 mm decade−1, respectively, for the near-term projection (2010–2039, mid-term projection (2040–2069, and long-term projection (2070–2099 under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5 scenario. Compared to the historical period, the relative changes in ET0 were found to be approximately 2%, 5% and 6% (2%, 7% and 13%, during the near, mid- and long-term periods, respectively, under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5 warming scenarios. In accordance with the analyses, we aver that the opportunity to downscale monthly ET0 with artificial intelligence is useful in practice for water-management policies.

  12. Inventory of future power and heat production technologies. Partial report Energy combines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thunman, Henrik; Lind, Fredrik; Johnsson, Filip

    2008-12-01

    This report treats different ways to produce various upgraded biofuels from lignocellulosic materials in so called polygeneration processes. Furthermore the different upgrading technologies are also investigated with respect to co-production of heat and power. The processes investigated are linked to production of - bio pellets (or lignin pellets), dried, grinded and compressed biomass (or lignin); - torrified bio pellets, dried, grinded, heat treated and compressed biomass; - bio-oils or pyrolytic oils, liquefied biomass with crude oil quality; - ethanol via hydrolysis (process where the biomass is divided into sugars and lignin) followed by fermentation; - methane via hydrolysis and fermentation; - methane via indirect gasification and methane via indirect or suspension gasification, - DME (dimethyl ether) via indirect or suspension gasification; - methanol via indirect or suspension gasification; - DME and methanol via methane produced via indirect gasification. Lignocellulosic biomasses are, for example, forest residues or biomass that can be cultivated on degraded lands. The result from this report shows that it is only the production of bio pellets that is fully commercially available today. For all the other polygeneration processes investigated the production of bio-oil and torrified bio pellets stands out from the other processes investigated, as it is the market for the product that holds back the introduction of the technology. For the other technologies one or several components are still not commercialized and the challenges for these technologies are described in the report. Summarizing the efficiencies for the different processes, the processes that produces biofuels for stationary applications, bio pellets, torrified bio pellets and bio-oil, show the highest efficiencies. Accounted for the co-generated power, efficiencies up to 90 % based on ingoing lower heating values of the dry substance fed to the process could be achieved. For the processes

  13. Analysis of ferrite heating of the LHC injection kickers and proposals for future reduction of temperature

    CERN Document Server

    Barnes, M J; Garrel, N; Goddard, B; Mertens, V; Weterings, W

    2012-01-01

    The two LHC injection kicker magnet (MKI) systems must produce a kick of 1.3 T.m with a flat top duration variable up to 7860 ns, and rise and fall times of less than 900 ns and 3000 ns, respectively. A beam screen is placed in the aperture of the magnets: the screen consists of a ceramic tube with conductors on the inner wall. The conductors provide a path for the image current of the high intensity LHC beam and screen the ferrite against wake fields. The conductors initially used gave adequately low beam coupling impedance however screen conductor discharges occurred during pulsing of the magnet; hence an alternative design with fewer screen conductors was implemented to meet the often conflicting requirements for low beam coupling impedance, fast magnetic field rise-time and good high voltage behaviour. During 2011 the LHC was operated with high intensity beam, coasting for many hours at a time, resulting in heating of the ferrite yoke of the MKIs. This paper presents an analysis of thermal measurement dat...

  14. Heat shock protein HSP60 and the perspective for future using as vaccine antigens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanna Bajzert

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Heat Shock Proteins (HSPs are widely spread in nature, highly conserved proteins, found in all prokaryotic and eukaryotic cells. HSPs have been classified in 10 families, one of them is the HSP60 family. HSP60 function in the cytoplasm as ATP-dependent molecular chaperones by assisting the folding of newly synthesised polypeptides and the assembly of multiprotein complexes. There is a large amount of evidence which demonstrate that HSP60 is expressed on the cell surface. Especially in bacteria the expression on the surface occurs constitutively and increases remarkably during host infection. HSP60 also play an important role in biofilm formation. In the extracellular environment, HSP60 alone or with self or microbial proteins can acts not only as a link between immune cells, but also as a coordinator of the immune system activity. This protein could influence the immune system in a different way because they act as an antigen, a carrier of other functional molecules or as a ligand for receptor. They are able to stimulate both cells of the acquired (naïve, effector, regulatory T lymphocyte, B lymphocyte and the innate (macrophages, monocytes, dendritic cells immune system. HSPs have been reported to be potent activators of the immune system and they are one of the immunodominant bacterial antigens they could be a good candidate for a subunit vaccine or as an adjuvant.

  15. Caribbean Heat Threatens Health, Well-being and the Future of Humanity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, Cheryl C; Akpinar-Elci, Muge

    2015-07-01

    Climate change has substantial impacts on public health and safety, disease risks and the provision of health care, with the poor being particularly disadvantaged. Management of the associated health risks and changing health service requirements requires adequate responses at local levels. Health-care providers are central to these responses. While climate change raises ethical questions about its causes, impacts and social justice, medicine and bioethics typically focus on individual patients and research participants rather than these broader issues. We broaden this focus by examining awareness among health-care providers in the Caribbean region, where geographic and socioeconomic features pose particular vulnerabilities to climate change. In focus groups, Caribbean providers described rises in mosquito-borne, flood-related, heat-related, respiratory and mental illnesses, and attributed these to local impacts of climate change. Their discussions showed that the significance of these impacts differs in different Caribbean nations, raising policy and social justice questions. Bioethics and public health ethics are situated to frame, inform and initiate public and policy dialog about values and scientific evidence associated with climate change. We urge readers to initiate such dialog within their own institutions about the context-dependent nature of the burdens of climate change, and values and policies that permit it to worsen.

  16. Current achievements and future perspectives on particle simulation technologies for fluid dynamics and heat transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koshizuka, Seiichi

    2011-01-01

    The Moving Particle Semi-implicit (MPS) method is one of the particle methods in which continuum mechanics is analyzed using the concept of particles. Since meshes are not used, large deformation of free surfaces and material interfaces can be simulated without the problems of mesh distortion. Thus, the MPS method has been applied to multiphase flow analysis in nuclear engineering. The advantages of the particle methods are also useful for applications in other engineering fields: ship engineering, civil engineering, microflow, biomechanics, visualization, etc. In this review, calculation examples are described and classified. Commercial codes have been released and applied in industries. The particle methods are also used in TV programs, movies, and computer games. Combinations of numerical techniques for multiphysics problems, fast calculations, and high-quality visualizations are expected to lead to real-time particle simulations for various new applications in the near future. (author)

  17. The study on the role of very high temperature reactor and nuclear process heat utilization in future energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yasukawa, Sigeru; Mankin, Shuichi; Tadokoro, Yoshihiro; Sato, Osamu; Yamaguchi, Kazuo; Ueno, Seiichi

    1986-11-01

    This report describes the analytical results being made in the study on the role of Very High Temperature Reactor and nuclear process heat utilization in future energy system, which is aimed at zero emission. In the former part of the report, the modeling of the reference energy system, main characteristics of energy technologies, and scenario indicators as well as system behavioral objectives for optimization are explained. In the latter part, analytical results such as the time-period variation of overall energy utilization efficiency, energy supply/demand structure in long-terms, energy contribution and economic competition of new energy technologies, environmental effluents released through verious energy activities, impacts to and from national economy, and some sensitivity analyses, are reviewed. (author)

  18. Coping with heat in the city: what can we learn from a survey immediately after a hot weather period for future heat waves?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Schipper, Hans; Hackenbruch, Julia

    2015-04-01

    Karlsruhe is one of the hottest cities in Germany with a temperature record of 40.2°C in August 2003. In 2013, two hot weather periods with continuous heat warnings by the German Weather Service for 7 and 8 days occurred during the second half of July and first 10 days of August 2013, and in early August the temperatures in Karlsruhe almost reached again the record of 40.2°C. To understand how citizens experienced the heat and what strategies they used to cope with the heat, we conducted a questionnaire survey on subjective heat stress and coping strategies immediately after the hot weather period. Based on a holistic approach the questionnaire included questions on heat stress experience in different contexts of daily life, health impacts of the heat, coping measures, housing conditions, urban environment, living conditions, and socio-demographic characteristics. The responses of the 323 survey participants living and working in Karlsruhe show that they on average experienced the heat as rather stressful event, whereby the heat stress experienced at home was significant lower than heat stress experienced at work or in general. Regression analyses show that, among the factors included in the questionnaire, the health impairments suffered during the heat, the control belief and the coping measures implemented mainly determine heat stress experienced in general and at work. For the subjective heat stress at home, factors of the built urban environment such as heat loading of district, living in the attic or the ground floor, and heat protection elements of the inhabited building also played a role. At the same time, the way the respondents used different coping strategies in context of their daily activities and routines during heat suggests lessons to learn from this event how individual response to heat differs from responses to other types of natural hazards.

  19. Excess heat from kraft pulp mills: Trade-offs between internal and external use in the case of Sweden-Part 2: Results for future energy market scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joensson, Johanna; Svensson, Inger-Lise; Berntsson, Thore; Moshfegh, Bahram

    2008-01-01

    In this paper the trade-off between internal and external use of excess heat from a kraft pulp mill is investigated for four different future energy market scenarios. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [2008. Excess heat from kraft pulp mills: trade-offs between internal and external use in the case of Sweden-Part 1: methodology. Energy Policy, submitted for publication], where a systematic approach is proposed for investigating the potential for profitable excess heat cooperation. The trade-off is analyzed by economic optimization of an energy system model consisting of a pulp mill and an energy company (ECO). In the model, investments can be made, which increase the system's energy efficiency by utilization of the mill's excess heat, as well as investments that increase the electricity production. The results show that the trade-off depends on energy market prices, the district heating demand and the type of existing heat production. From an economic point of view, external use of the excess heat is preferred for all investigated energy market scenarios if the mill is studied together with an ECO with a small heat load. For the cases with medium or large district heating loads, the optimal use of excess heat varies with the energy market price scenarios. However, from a CO 2 emissions perspective, external use is preferred, giving the largest reduction of global emissions in most cases

  20. Towards constraining extreme temperature projections of the CMIP5 ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Martha-Marie; Orth, René; Isabelle Seneviratne, Sonia

    2016-04-01

    The frequency and intensity of heat waves is expected to change in future in response to global warming. Given the severe impacts of heat waves on ecosystems and society it is important to understand how and where they will intensify. Projections of extreme hot temperatures in the IPCC AR5 model ensemble show large uncertainties for projected changes of extreme temperatures in particular in Central Europe. In this region land-atmosphere coupling can contribute substantially to the development of heat waves. This coupling is also subject to change in future, while model projections display considerable spread. In this work we link projections of changes in extreme temperatures and of changes in land-atmosphere interactions with a particular focus on Central Europe. Uncertainties in projected extreme temperatures can be partly explained by different projected changes of the interplay between latent heat and temperature as well as soil moisture. Given the considerable uncertainty in land-atmosphere coupling representation already in the current climate, we furthermore employ observational data sets to constrain the model ensemble, and consequently the extreme temperature projections.

  1. The future of combined heat and power generation. Survey of the economic appeal in a liberalised energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Dril, A.W.N.; Rijkers, F.A.M.; Battjes, J.J.; De Raad, A.

    1999-10-01

    Combined heat and power generation (CHP) has made a considerable contribution to Dutch national energy efficiency and is an important element in future energy and environmental policy programs. Recently, the effect of liberalisation of energy markets on prices and tariffs has been signalled to form a threat to CHP. This study calculates effects in two-market scenarios for a wide variety of CHP options and conditions. Results show that indeed profitability of investments in CHP has substantially decreased. Even in a scenario where electricity prices cover more than just marginal costs, most types of CHP are no longer profitable. Cash flow calculations on existing CHP projects also show a substantial decrease. Estimates on the national CHP capacity for 2010 compared to 1999 amount to a decrease in the competitive scenario and a stabilisation in the moderate scenario. The main cause is the fierce competition on the electricity market and the uncertainty whether prices will cover more than just marginal fuel costs in the near future. Part of the study was also to make an update of the technical and cost inputs of CHP projects. Investments and O and M (operation and maintenance) costs seem to have risen substantially, contributing to the decrease in profitability of CHP. 20 refs

  2. The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

    2013-12-01

    The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution

  3. Analysis of extreme events

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Khuluse, S

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available ) determination of the distribution of the damage and (iii) preparation of products that enable prediction of future risk events. The methodology provided by extreme value theory can also be a powerful tool in risk analysis...

  4. State of the Art of helium heat exchanger development for future HTR-projects - HTR2008-58146

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esch, M.; Juergens, B.; Hurtado, A.; Knoche, D.; Tietsch, W.

    2008-01-01

    In Germany two HTR nuclear power plants had been built and operated, the AVR-15 and the THTR-300. Also various projects for different purposes in a large power range had been developed, The AVR-15, an experimental reactor with a power output of 15 MWel was operated for more than 20 years with excellent results. The THTR-300 was designed as a prototype demonstration plant with 300 MWel and should be the technological basis for the entire future reactor line. The THTR-300 was prematurely shut down and decommissioned because of political reasons. But because of the accompanying comprehensive R and D program and the operation time of about 5 years, the technology was proved and essential operational results were gained. The AVR steam generator was installed above the reactor core. The six THTR heat exchangers were arranged circularly around the reactor core, Both heat exchanger systems have been operated successfully and furthermore acted as a residual heat removal system. The technology knowledge and experience gained on these existing HTR plants is still available at Westinghouse Electric Germany GmbH since Westinghouse is one of the legal successors of the former German HTR companies. As a follow-up project of THTR, the HTR-500 was developed and designed up to the manufacturing stage. For this plant additionally to the 8 steam generators, two residual heat removal heat exchangers were foreseen. These were to be installed in a ring around the reactor core. All these HTRs were designed for the generation of electricity using a steam cycle. Extensive research work has also been done for advanced applications of HTR technology e.g. using a direct cycle within the HHT project or generating process heat within the framework of the PNP project, Because of the critical attitude of the German government to the nuclear power in the past 20 years in Germany there was only a very limited interest in the further development of the HTR technology. As a consequence of the German

  5. Research of the heat exchanging processes running in the heating and hot water supply loops of the coil heat exchangers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ірина Геннадіївна Шитікова

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The fuel-energy complex research has made it possible to disclose a huge power-saving potential in the municipal heat-and-power engineering. Power-and-resource-saving units and systems are becoming extremely urgent because of the power engineering crisis expansion. The self-adjusting heat supply system from the individual heating points with the heat-accumulating units and coil heat exchangers for independent heating and water supply systems has been examined. Coil heat exchangers are used in municipal heating for heat transfer (e.g. geothermal waters for the independent mains of the heating and hot water supply systems. The heat engineering calculation of the heating and accumulating unit with the coil heat exchanger for independent heat supply systems from individual heater was performed and experimental data were received at the experimental industrial unit under the laboratory conditions. The peculiarities of the flows in the intertubular space, their influence on the heat exchange and temperatures of the first and intermediate mains have been shown. It is important to know the processes running inside the apparatus to be able to improve the technical characteristics of the three-loop coil heat exchanger. The task solution will make it possible to save the materials consumption for the three-loop coil heat exchangers in the future

  6. Early life thermal stress: Impact on future thermotolerance, stress response, behavior, and intestinal morphology in piglets exposed to a heat stress challenge during simulated transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Study objectives were to evaluate the impact of early life thermal stress (ELTS) on thermoregulation, stress, and intestinal health of piglets subjected to a future heat stress (HS) challenge during simulated transport. Approximately 7 d after farrowing, 12 first parity gilts and their litters were ...

  7. Mandelbrot's Extremism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beirlant, J.; Schoutens, W.; Segers, J.J.J.

    2004-01-01

    In the sixties Mandelbrot already showed that extreme price swings are more likely than some of us think or incorporate in our models.A modern toolbox for analyzing such rare events can be found in the field of extreme value theory.At the core of extreme value theory lies the modelling of maxima

  8. Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, I N; Torn, M S; Riley, W J; Wehner, M F

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at the warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections

  9. Forecasting extreme temperature health hazards in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

    2017-04-01

    Extreme hot temperatures, such as those experienced during a heat wave, represent a dangerous meteorological hazard to human health. Heat disorders such as sunstroke are harmful to people of all ages and responsible for excess mortality in the affected areas. In 2003 more than 50,000 people died in western and southern Europe because of a severe and sustained episode of summer heat [1]. Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change heat waves are expected to get more frequent in the future thus posing an increasing threat to human lives. Developing appropriate tools for extreme hot temperatures prediction is therefore mandatory to increase public preparedness and mitigate heat-induced impacts. A recent study has shown that forecasts of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) provide a valid overview of extreme temperature health hazards on a global scale [2]. UTCI is a parameter related to the temperature of the human body and its regulatory responses to the surrounding atmospheric environment. UTCI is calculated using an advanced thermo-physiological model that includes the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. To forecast UTCI the model uses meteorological inputs, such as 2m air temperature, 2m water vapour pressure and wind velocity at body height derived from 10m wind speed, from NWP models. Here we examine the potential of UTCI as an extreme hot temperature prediction tool for the European area. UTCI forecasts calculated using above-mentioned parameters from ECMWF models are presented. The skill in predicting UTCI for medium lead times is also analysed and discussed for implementation to international health-hazard warning systems. This research is supported by the ANYWHERE project (EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events) which is funded by the European Commission's HORIZON2020 programme. [1] Koppe C. et al., Heat waves: risks and responses. World Health Organization. Health and

  10. Heat pumps: heat recovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pielke, R

    1976-01-01

    The author firstly explains in a general manner the functioning of the heat pump. Following a brief look at the future heat demand and the possibilities of covering it, the various methods of obtaining energy (making use of solar energy, ground heat, and others) and the practical applications (office heating, swimming pool heating etc.) are explained. The author still sees considerable difficulties in using the heat pump at present on a large scale. Firstly there is not enough maintenance personnel available, secondly the electricity supply undertakings cannot provide the necessary electricity on a wide basis without considerable investments. Other possibilities to save energy or to use waste energy are at present easier and more economical to realize. Recuperative and regenerative systems are described.

  11. Heat exposure, cardiovascular stress and work productivity in rice harvesters in India: implications for a climate change future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahu, Subhashis; Sett, Moumita; Kjellstrom, Tord

    2013-01-01

    Excessive workplace heat exposures create well-known risks of heat stroke, and it limits the workers' capacity to sustain physical activity. There is very limited evidence available on how these effects reduce work productivity, while the quantitative relationship between heat and work productivity is an essential basis for climate change impact assessments. We measured hourly heat exposure in rice fields in West Bengal and recorded perceived health problems via interviews of 124 rice harvesters. In a sub-group (n = 48) heart rate was recorded every minute in a standard work situation. Work productivity was recorded as hourly rice bundle collection output. The hourly heat levels (WBGT = Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) were 26-32°C (at air temperatures of 30-38°C), exceeding international standards. Most workers reported exhaustion and pain during work on hot days. Heart rate recovered quickly at low heat, but more slowly at high heat, indicating cardiovascular strain. The hourly number of rice bundles collected was significantly reduced at WBGT>26°C (approximately 5% per°C of increased WBGT). We conclude that high heat exposure in agriculture caused heat strain and reduced work productivity. This reduction will be exacerbated by climate change and may undermine the local economy.

  12. Changes in Extreme Events and the Potential Impacts on National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, J.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socio-economic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for changes in the future. Some of the extreme events that have already changed are heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surge, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local intricacies of societal and environmental factors that influences the level of exposure. The goal of this presentation is to discuss the national security implications of changes in extreme weather events and demonstrate how changes in extremes can lead to a host cascading issues. To illustrate this point, this presentation will provide examples of the various pathways that extreme events can increase disease burden and cause economic stress.

  13. Assessing the importance of spatio-temporal RCM resolution when estimating sub-daily extreme precipitation under current and future climate conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Luchner, J.; Onof, C.

    2017-01-01

    extreme precipitation over Denmark generated by the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM-ECEARTH at different spatial resolutions (8, 12, 25 and 50km), three RCM from the RiskChange project at 8km resolution and three RCMs from ENSEMBLES at 25km resolution at temporal aggregations from 1 to 48h...... are more skewed than the observational dataset, which leads to an overestimation by the higher spatial resolution simulations. Nevertheless, in general, under current conditions RCM simulations at high spatial resolution represent extreme events and high-order moments better. The changes projected...

  14. Air Source Heat Pump a Key Role in the Development of Smart Buildings in Future Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Craciun, Vasile S.; Trifa, Viorel; Bojesen, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    An important challenge for energy systems today is reducing dependency on fossil fuels, while handling increasing penetration levels of intermittent renewables such as wind and solar power. The efficient consumption of energy is a vital mater for a sustainable energy system. A significant part...... of energy is used for space heating, space cooling, and domestic hot water production which are provided to residential and commercial buildings. Air source heat pumps (ASHP) are widely used conversion technologies all over the world for providing building thermal energy services as: cooling, heating......, and water heating. ASHP does not have a constant temperature for the primary source like: soil, ground water, or surface water heat pumps but still have a majority in usage. As result, laboratory experiments and tests are faced by the problem of having to handle a wide range of conditions under which...

  15. Tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and extreme sea-level projections along the east coast of India in a future climate scenario

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; RameshKumar, M.R.; Sindhu, B.

    (2071– 2100), A2. The analysis showed an increase in the frequency of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal during the late monsoon (August and September) in the A2 scenario compared to the baseline scenario. Extreme sea-level projections along the east coast...

  16. The legacy of extreme sea levels for the assessment of future coastal flood risk – A review of methods applied in Denmark, Germany and Norway

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilsen, Jan Even; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Dangendore, Sönke

    in the three countries is discussed. Here, national approaches to deal with risk, risk acceptance and uncertainty vary, among other factors, as a result of the different assessments of extreme events. In hazard and vulnerability assessments, for instance, where results are highly dependent on the quality...

  17. Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

    2017-04-20

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

  18. Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

    2017-01-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming. PMID:28425445

  19. Mathematical Analysis of Extremity Immersion Cooling for Brain Temperature Management

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xu, Xiaojiang; Santee, William; Berglund, Larry; Gonzalez, Richard

    2004-01-01

    .... As blood flow rates and surface-to-volume ratios are generally high in the extremities, heat exchange between the body and the environment through the extremities is an important path for heat exchange...

  20. Thermal Implications for Extreme Fast Charge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keyser, Matthew A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-08-14

    Present-day thermal management systems for battery electric vehicles are inadequate in limiting the maximum temperature rise of the battery during extreme fast charging. If the battery thermal management system is not designed correctly, the temperature of the cells could reach abuse temperatures and potentially send the cells into thermal runaway. Furthermore, the cell and battery interconnect design needs to be improved to meet the lifetime expectations of the consumer. Each of these aspects is explored and addressed as well as outlining where the heat is generated in a cell, the efficiencies of power and energy cells, and what type of battery thermal management solutions are available in today's market. Thermal management is not a limiting condition with regard to extreme fast charging, but many factors need to be addressed especially for future high specific energy density cells to meet U.S. Department of Energy cost and volume goals.

  1. Extreme ion heating in the dayside ionosphere in response to the arrival of a coronal mass ejection on 12 March 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Fujiwara

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Simultaneous measurements of the polar ionosphere with the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT ultra high frequency (UHF radar at Tromsø and the EISCAT Svalbard radar (ESR at Longyearbyen were made during 07:00–12:00 UT on 12 March 2012. During the period, the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE spacecraft observed changes in the solar wind which were due to the arrival of coronal mass ejection (CME effects associated with the 10 March M8.4 X-ray event. The solar wind showed two-step variations which caused strong ionospheric heating. First, the arrival of shock structures in the solar wind with enhancements of density and velocity, and a negative interplanetary magnetic field (IMF-Bz component caused strong ionospheric heating around Longyearbyen; the ion temperature at about 300 km increased from about 1100 to 3400 K over Longyearbyen while that over Tromsø increased from about 1050 to 1200 K. After the passage of the shock structures, the IMF-Bz component showed positive values and the solar wind speed and density also decreased. The second strong ionospheric heating occurred after the IMF-Bz component showed negative values again; the negative values lasted for more than 1.5 h. This solar wind variation caused stronger heating of the ionosphere in the lower latitudes than higher latitudes, suggesting expansion of the auroral oval/heating region to the lower latitude region. This study shows an example of the CME-induced dayside ionospheric heating: a short-duration and very large rise in the ion temperature which was closely related to the polar cap size and polar cap potential variations as a result of interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere.

  2. Extreme cosmos

    CERN Document Server

    Gaensler, Bryan

    2011-01-01

    The universe is all about extremes. Space has a temperature 270°C below freezing. Stars die in catastrophic supernova explosions a billion times brighter than the Sun. A black hole can generate 10 million trillion volts of electricity. And hypergiants are stars 2 billion kilometres across, larger than the orbit of Jupiter. Extreme Cosmos provides a stunning new view of the way the Universe works, seen through the lens of extremes: the fastest, hottest, heaviest, brightest, oldest, densest and even the loudest. This is an astronomy book that not only offers amazing facts and figures but also re

  3. Current and future financial competitiveness of electricity and heat from energy crops: A case study from Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Styles, David; Jones, Michael B.

    2007-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that Miscanthus and willow energy-crop cultivation could be economically competitive with current agricultural land uses at a farm-gate biomass price ranging from EUR70 to EUR130 t -1 dry matter [Styles, D., Thorne, F., Jones, M.B., in review. Energy crops in Ireland: An economic comparison of willow and Miscanthus production with conventional farming systems. Biomass and Bioenergy, May 2006]. This paper uses the same farm-gate prices to calculate the economic competitiveness of energy crop electricity and heat production, using a net-present-value (NPV) approach (20-year period, 5% discount rate). Direct and gasified co-firing of willow wood with coal would result in electricity generation 30% or 37% more expensive than coal generation, at current coal and CO 2 allowance prices and a farm-gate biomass cost of EUR100 t -1 . 'Break-even' CO 2 allowance prices are EUR33 and EUR37 t -1 , respectively. However, co-firing of Miscanthus with peat is close to economic competitiveness, and would require a CO 2 allowance price of EUR16 t -1 to break-even (against a current price of EUR12 t -1 ). NPV analyses indicate that wood heat is significantly cheaper than oil, gas or electric heat, excluding existing wood-boiler installation subsidies. Discounted annual savings range from EUR143 compared with gas to EUR722 compared with electric heating at the domestic scale and from EUR3454 to EUR11,222 at the commercial scale. Inclusion of available subsidies improves the comparative economics of domestic wood heat substantially. The economic advantage of wood heat is robust to variation in fuel prices, discount rates and heat loads. The greatest obstacles to energy-crop utilisation include: (i) a reluctance to consider long-term economics; (ii) possible competition from cheaper sources of biomass; (iii) the need for a spatially coordinated supply and utilisation network. (author)

  4. Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedlmeier, Katrin; Feldmann, H.; Schädler, G.

    2018-02-01

    Reliable knowledge of the near-future climate change signal of extremes is important for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Especially compound extremes, like heat and drought occurring simultaneously, may have a greater impact on society than their univariate counterparts and have recently become an active field of study. In this paper, we use a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe to analyze the climate change signal and its uncertainty for compound heat and drought extremes in summer by two different measures: one describing absolute (i.e., number of exceedances of absolute thresholds like hot days), the other relative (i.e., number of exceedances of time series intrinsic thresholds) compound extreme events. Changes are assessed between a reference period (1971-2000) and a projection period (2021-2050). Our findings show an increase in the number of absolute compound events for the whole investigation area. The change signal of relative extremes is more region-dependent, but there is a strong signal change in the southern and eastern parts of Germany and the neighboring countries. Especially the Czech Republic shows strong change in absolute and relative extreme events.

  5. An assessment of the present and future opportunities for combined heat and power with district heating (CHP-DH) in the United Kingdom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, Scott; Pollitt, Michael

    2010-01-01

    As global fuel reserves are depleted, alternative and more efficient forms of energy generation and delivery will be required. Combined heat and power with district heating (CHP-DH) provides an alternative energy production and delivery mechanism that is less resource intensive, more efficient and provides greater energy security than many popular alternatives. It will be shown that the economic viability of CHP-DH networks depends on several principles, namely (1) the optimisation of engineering and design principles; (2) organisational and regulatory frameworks; (3) financial and economic factors. It was found that in the long term DH is competitive with other energy supply and distribution technologies such as electricity and gas. However, in the short to medium term it is shown that economic risk, regulatory uncertainty and lock-in of existing technology are the most significant barriers to CHP-DH development. This research suggests that under the present regulatory and economic paradigm, the infrastructure required for DH networks remains financially prohibitive; the implementation of government policies are complicated and impose high transaction costs, while engineering solutions are frequently not implemented or economically optimised. If CHP-DH is going to play any part in meeting climate change targets then collaboration between public and private organisations will be required. It is clear from this analysis that strong local government involvement is therefore necessary for the co-ordination, leadership and infrastructural deployment of CHP-DH.

  6. Standard Test Method for Measuring Extreme Heat-Transfer Rates from High-Energy Environments Using a Transient, Null-Point Calorimeter

    CERN Document Server

    American Society for Testing and Materials. Philadelphia

    2008-01-01

    1.1 This test method covers the measurement of the heat-transfer rate or the heat flux to the surface of a solid body (test sample) using the measured transient temperature rise of a thermocouple located at the null point of a calorimeter that is installed in the body and is configured to simulate a semi-infinite solid. By definition the null point is a unique position on the axial centerline of a disturbed body which experiences the same transient temperature history as that on the surface of a solid body in the absence of the physical disturbance (hole) for the same heat-flux input. 1.2 Null-point calorimeters have been used to measure high convective or radiant heat-transfer rates to bodies immersed in both flowing and static environments of air, nitrogen, carbon dioxide, helium, hydrogen, and mixtures of these and other gases. Flow velocities have ranged from zero (static) through subsonic to hypersonic, total flow enthalpies from 1.16 to greater than 4.65 × 101 MJ/kg (5 × 102 to greater than 2 × 104 ...

  7. Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.; Gilleland, E.

    2016-04-01

    We develop a statistical model using extreme value theory to estimate the 2000-2050 changes in ozone episodes across the United States. We model the relationships between daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone in May-September over 2003-2012 using a Point Process (PP) model. At ~20% of the sites, a marked decrease in the ozone-temperature slope occurs at high temperatures, defined as ozone suppression. The PP model sometimes fails to capture ozone-Tmax relationships, so we refit the ozone-Tmax slope using logistic regression and a generalized Pareto distribution model. We then apply the resulting hybrid-extreme value theory model to projections of Tmax from an ensemble of downscaled climate models. Assuming constant anthropogenic emissions at the present level, we find an average increase of 2.3 d a-1 in ozone episodes (>75 ppbv) across the United States by the 2050s, with a change of +3-9 d a-1 at many sites.

  8. Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

    2013-12-01

    We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

  9. Extreme genomes

    OpenAIRE

    DeLong, Edward F

    2000-01-01

    The complete genome sequence of Thermoplasma acidophilum, an acid- and heat-loving archaeon, has recently been reported. Comparative genomic analysis of this 'extremophile' is providing new insights into the metabolic machinery, ecology and evolution of thermophilic archaea.

  10. Perceptions of Workplace Heat Exposure and Controls among Occupational Hygienists and Relevant Specialists in Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianjun Xiang

    Full Text Available With warmer weather projections, workplace heat exposure is presenting a growing challenge to workers' health and safety. Occupational hygienists are the specialist group conducting measurements and providing advice on heat stress management to industry. In order to provide insights into hygienists perceptions on workplace heat exposure, current and future preparedness for extreme heat, and barriers to possible heat adaptation strategies, a self-administered questionnaire survey was conducted during a national conference of the Australian Institute of Occupational Hygienists. Nearly 90% of the 180 respondents were at least moderately concerned about extreme heat and 19% were dissatisfied with current heat stress prevention measures. Barriers recognized by the participants were lack of awareness (68%, insufficient training (56%, unsatisfactory management commitment (52%, and low compliance with prevention policies (40%. The findings suggest a need to refine occupational heat management and prevention strategies.

  11. Methodological developments and qualification of calculation schemes for the modelling of photonic heating in the experimental devices of the future Jules Horowitz material testing reactor (RJH)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchet, D.

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this work is to develop the modelling of the nuclear heating of the experimental devices of the future Jules Horowitz material testing reactor (RJH). The strong specific nuclear power produced (460 kW/l), induces so intense photonic fluxes which cause heating and large temperature gradients that it is necessary to control it by an adequate design. However, calculations of heating are penalized by the very large uncertainties estimated at a value of about 30% (2*σ) coming from the gaps and uncertainties of the data of gamma emission present in the libraries of basic nuclear data. The experimental program ADAPh aims at reducing these uncertainties. Measurements by thermoluminescent detectors (TLD) and ionisation chambers are carried out in the critical assemblies EOLE (Mox) and Minerve (UO 2 ). The rigorous interpretation of these measurements requires specific developments based on Monte-Carlo simulations of coupled neutron-gamma and gamma-electron transport. The developments carried out are made different in particular by the modelling of cavities phenomena and delayed gamma emissions by the decay of fission products. The comparisons calculation-measurement made it possible to identify a systematic bias confirming a tendency of calculations to underestimate measurements. A Bayesian method of adjustment was developed in order to re-estimate the principal components of the gamma heating and to transpose the results obtained to the devices of the RJH, under conditions clearly and definitely representative. This work made possible to reduce significantly the uncertainties on the determination of the gamma heating from 30 to 15 per cent. (author)

  12. Modeling of heat and mass transfer in 2D and 3D molten pools. Progress and future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tchoudanov, V.V.

    2001-01-01

    Under increasing of complexity of heat and mass transfer problems in molten pools (the three-dimensional complex geometries of molten pool, turbulence, variable properties of materials, phase changes under local non-equilibrium etc.) for us a need has arisen in more perfect algorithms and methods of solution. To solve computational fluid dynamics problems in domain of arbitrary shapes including the variable properties of materials the new effective finite-volume numerical algorithm is developed, which based on a using the orthogonal and Cartesian local refinement matching and/or non-matching grids constructed automatically for a multi-block decomposition of a complex computational domain. The developed algorithm is applied to the heat and fluid flow equations (i.e. Navier-Stokes equations with energy equation) in the primitive variables formulation. Validation of the developed approach is carried out on the set of test problems, namely forced convection (flow about complex objects), natural convection and fluid flows with melting. Good agreement is obtained between numerical predictions and experimental data via the new multi-block approach. New approach is implemented in CONV2D and 3D codes. (author)

  13. Plasma-surface interactions under high heat and particle fluxes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Temmerman, G.; Bystrov, K.; Liu, F.; Liu, W.; Morgan, T.; Tanyeli, I.; van den Berg, M.; Xu, H.; Zielinski, J.

    2013-01-01

    The plasma-surface interactions expected in the divertor of a future fusion reactor are characterized by extreme heat and particle fluxes interacting with the plasma-facing surfaces. Powerful linear plasma generators are used to reproduce the expected plasma conditions and allow plasma-surface

  14. Plasma heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilhelm, R.

    1989-01-01

    Successful plasma heating is essential in present fusion experiments, for the demonstration of DpT burn in future devices and finally for the fusion reactor itself. This paper discusses the common heating systems with respect to their present performance and their applicability to future fusion devices. The comparative discussion is oriented to the various function of heating, which are: - plasma heating to fusion-relevant parameters and to ignition in future machines, -non-inductive, steady-pstate current drive, - plasma profile control, -neutral gas breakdown and plasma build-up. In view of these different functions, the potential of neutral beam injection (NBI) and the various schemes of wave heating (ECRH, LH, ICRH and Alven wave heating) is analyzed in more detail. The analysis includes assessments of the present physical and technical state of these heating methods, and makes suggestions for future developments and about outstanding problems. Specific attention is given to the still critical problem of efficient current drive, especially with respect to further extrapolation towards an economically operating tokamak reactor. Remarks on issues such as reliability, maintenance and economy conclude this comparative overview on plasma heating systems. (author). 43 refs.; 13 figs.; 3 tabs

  15. Analysing the climatic extremes of future projections for the MedCORDEX domain using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholy, Judit; Pongracz, Rita; Pieczka, Ildiko; Szabone Andre, Karolina

    2017-04-01

    In this study HadGEM2 global climate model outputs were downscaled with RegCM4.3 for the entire MED-44 CORDEX area for the period 1950-2099 using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario. The 50-km resolution RegCM-outputs served as input for further downscaling using 10 km as a horizontal resolution for a smaller domain covering Central Europe with special focus on the Carpathian Region. RCP4.5 is a stabilization scenario while RCP8.5 is a rising radiative forcing pathway, therefore, the difference in the simulation outputs helps to quantify the inertia of the climate system, the importance of anthropogenic influence on climate, and shows the evidence for the need of mitigation and adaptation measures. Evidently, higher temperature change corresponds to RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. The difference of global and/or regional warming between the two scenario can reach (or even exceed) 2 °C from the second part of the century. Differences in precipitation projections are less straightforward to explain as no direct link exists with warming and radiative forcing, however, the annual distribution of precipitation is projected to change, which may lead to important consequences on society. Our analysis compares the estimated temperature and precipitation changes with special focus on extreme climatic conditions for the following 10 subregions of the MED-44 CORDEX area: Iberian Peninsula, Apennine Peninsula, Balkan Region, Asia Minor, East European Plain, Middle European Plain, Carpathian Basin, Carpathian Mountains, Alps, Western Europe.

  16. Manufacturing W fibre-reinforced Cu composite pipes for application as heat sink in divertor targets of future nuclear fusion reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Alexander v.; You, Jeong-Ha [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, 85748 Garching (Germany); Ewert, Dagmar [Institut fuer Textil- und Verfahrenstechnik Denkendorf, 73770 Denkendorf (Germany); Siefken, Udo [Louis Renner GmbH, 85221 Dachau (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    An important plasma-facing component (PFC) in future nuclear fusion reactors is the so-called divertor which allows power exhaust and removal of impurities from the main plasma. The most highly loaded parts of a divertor are the target plates which have to withstand intense particle bombardment. This intense particle bombardment leads to high heat fluxes onto the target plates which in turn lead to severe thermomechanical loads. With regard to future nuclear fusion reactors, an improvement of the performance of divertor targets is desirable in order to ensure reliable long term operation of such PFCs. The performance of a divertor target is most closely linked to the properties of the materials that are used for its design. W fibre-reinforced Cu (Wf/Cu) composites are regarded as promising heat sink materials in this respect. These materials do not only feature adequate thermophysical and mechanical properties, they do also offer metallurgical flexibility as their microstructure and hence their macroscopic properties can be tailored. The contribution will point out how Wf/Cu composites can be used to realise an advanced design of a divertor target and how these materials can be fabricated by means of liquid Cu infiltration.

  17. Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2014-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

  18. Combined heat and power generation with fuel cells in residential buildings in the future energy system; Kraft-Waerme-Kopplung mit Brennstoffzellen in Wohngebaeuden im zukuenftigen Energiesystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jungbluth, C.H.

    2007-04-27

    Combined heat and power generation (CHP) is regarded as one of the cornerstones of a future sustainable energy system. The application of this approach can be substantially extended by employing fuel cell technologies in small units for supplying heat to residential buildings. This could create an additional market for combined heat and power generation corresponding to approx. 25% of the final energy demand in Germany today. In parallel, the extensive application of distributed fuel cell systems in residential buildings would have substantial effects on energy infrastructures, primary energy demand, the energy mix and greenhouse gas emissions. It is the aim of the present study to quantify these effects via scenario modelling of energy demand and supply for Germany up to the year 2050. Two scenarios, reference and ecological commitment, are set up, and the application and operation of fuel cell plants in the future stock of residential buildings is simulated by a bottom-up approach. A model of the building stock was developed for this purpose, consisting of 213 types of reference buildings, as well as detailed simulation models of the plant operation modes. The aim was, furthermore, to identify economically and ecologically optimised plant designs and operation modes for fuel cells in residential buildings. Under the assumed conditions of the energy economy, economically optimised plant sizes for typical one- or two-family homes are in the range of a generating capacity of a few hundred watts of electrical power. Plant sizes of 2 to 4.7 kW{sub el} as discussed today are only economically feasible in multifamily dwellings. The abolition of the CHP bonus reduces profitability, especially for larger plants operated by contractors. In future, special strategies for power generation and supply can be an economically useful addition for the heat-oriented operation mode of fuel cells. On the basis of the assumed conditions of the energy economy, a technical potential for

  19. Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Huser, Raphaë l; Davison, Anthony C.; Genton, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model.

  20. Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Huser, Raphaël

    2015-11-17

    The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model.

  1. Inventory of future power and heat production technologies. Partial report Energy combines; Inventering av framtidens el- och vaermeproduktionstekniker. Delrapport Energikombinat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thunman, Henrik; Lind, Fredrik; Johnsson, Filip (Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden))

    2008-12-15

    This report treats different ways to produce various upgraded biofuels from lignocellulosic materials in so called polygeneration processes. Furthermore the different upgrading technologies are also investigated with respect to co-production of heat and power. The processes investigated are linked to production of - bio pellets (or lignin pellets), dried, grinded and compressed biomass (or lignin); - torrified bio pellets, dried, grinded, heat treated and compressed biomass; - bio-oils or pyrolytic oils, liquefied biomass with crude oil quality; - ethanol via hydrolysis (process where the biomass is divided into sugars and lignin) followed by fermentation; - methane via hydrolysis and fermentation; - methane via indirect gasification and methane via indirect or suspension gasification, - DME (dimethyl ether) via indirect or suspension gasification; - methanol via indirect or suspension gasification; - DME and methanol via methane produced via indirect gasification. Lignocellulosic biomasses are, for example, forest residues or biomass that can be cultivated on degraded lands. The result from this report shows that it is only the production of bio pellets that is fully commercially available today. For all the other polygeneration processes investigated the production of bio-oil and torrified bio pellets stands out from the other processes investigated, as it is the market for the product that holds back the introduction of the technology. For the other technologies one or several components are still not commercialized and the challenges for these technologies are described in the report. Summarizing the efficiencies for the different processes, the processes that produces biofuels for stationary applications, bio pellets, torrified bio pellets and bio-oil, show the highest efficiencies. Accounted for the co-generated power, efficiencies up to 90 % based on ingoing lower heating values of the dry substance fed to the process could be achieved. For the processes

  2. Inventory of future power and heat production technologies. Partial report Boilers/Combustion/Steam cycle for district heating and cogeneration; Inventering av framtidens el- och vaermeproduktionstekniker. Delrapport Pannor/Foerbraenning/Aangcykel foer fjaerrvaerme och kraftvaerme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schuster, Robert (AaF Process, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-12-15

    The energy market of today is turbulent and it is quite clear that big changes in the consumption pattern are going to occur, due to the expansion in Asia and the expected Climate Change. The EU has, as a first step, stated in a directive that the consumption of renewable energy in the heat and power sector should be increased to 20 % and in the transportation sector to 10 % by the year 2020, a target which is high above current levels in most of the EU countries. It is reasonable to believe the European demand of renewable energy will create a shortage of biomass and that the development and use of technology for energy production will therefore not only depend on what is technically possible. One scenario is that biomass is mainly used for the markets that have very few alternatives, such as the transportation sector and small scale CHP units. We have today a relatively high electrical consumption through a stable grid and district heating nets in almost all densely populated areas. Large high efficiency power plants combined with heat pump technology will probably prevent any significant expansion of the district heating nets. A third major net for gas distribution seems not to be a feasible solution. Local nets for production of biogas from wet waste for different purposes, including EvGT units with 55% efficiency may however be good solution for some areas. There are a number of cycles and technical solutions to increase the electrical efficiency which could be applied also on smaller plants. The total efficiency will however not increase, only the el/heat ratio and it is not obvious that the higher investment cost for indirect cycles, bottom cycles or extreme steam data in combination with the risk of lower availability is a feasible solution. Especially waste to energy plants, with their need of high utilisation time, are sensitive to long production interruptions. The existing heat sinks in Sweden will however be efficiently used for electrical production

  3. Acclimation responses to temperature vary with vertical stratification: implications for vulnerability of soil-dwelling species to extreme temperature events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dooremalen, van C.; Berg, M.P.; Ellers, J.

    2013-01-01

    The occurrence of summer heat waves is predicted to increase in amplitude and frequency in the near future, but the consequences of such extreme events are largely unknown, especially for belowground organisms. Soil organisms usually exhibit strong vertical stratification, resulting in more frequent

  4. The role of secreted heat shock protein-90 (Hsp90) in wound healing - how could it shape future therapeutics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jiacong; Chang, Cheng; Li, Wei

    2017-08-01

    Defects in tissue repair or wound healing pose a clinical, economic and social problem worldwide. Despite decades of studies, there have been few effective therapeutic treatments. Areas covered: We discuss the possible reasons for why growth factor therapy did not succeed. We point out the lack of human disorder-relevant animal models as another blockade for therapeutic development. We summarize the recent discovery of secreted heat shock protein-90 (Hsp90) as a novel wound healing agent. Expert commentary: Wound healing is a highly complex and multistep process that requires participations of many cell types, extracellular matrices and soluble molecules to work together in a spatial and temporal fashion within the wound microenvironment. The time that wounds remain open directly correlates with the clinical mortality associated with wounds. This time urgency makes the healing process impossible to regenerate back to the unwounded stage, rather forces it to take many shortcuts in order to protect life. Therefore, for therapeutic purpose, it is crucial to identify so-called 'driver genes' for the life-saving phase of wound closure. Keratinocyte-secreted Hsp90α was discovered in 2007 and has shown the promise by overcoming several key hurdles that have blocked the effectiveness of growth factors during wound healing.

  5. Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.

    Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the

  6. Future projections of the surface heat and water budgets of the Mediterranean Sea in an ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubois, C.; Somot, S.; Deque, M.; Sevault, F. [CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France, CNRS, Toulouse (France); Calmanti, S.; Carillo, A.; Dell' Aquilla, A.; Sannino, G. [ENEA, Rome (Italy); Elizalde, A.; Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Gualdi, S.; Oddo, P.; Scoccimarro, E. [INGV, Bologna (Italy); L' Heveder, B.; Li, L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France)

    2012-10-15

    Within the CIRCE project ''Climate change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment'', an ensemble of high resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models (AORCMs) are used to simulate the Mediterranean climate for the period 1950-2050. For the first time, realistic net surface air-sea fluxes are obtained. The sea surface temperature (SST) variability is consistent with the atmospheric forcing above it and oceanic constraints. The surface fluxes respond to external forcing under a warming climate and show an equivalent trend in all models. This study focuses on the present day and on the evolution of the heat and water budget over the Mediterranean Sea under the SRES-A1B scenario. On the contrary to previous studies, the net total heat budget is negative over the present period in all AORCMs and satisfies the heat closure budget controlled by a net positive heat gain at the strait of Gibraltar in the present climate. Under climate change scenario, some models predict a warming of the Mediterranean Sea from the ocean surface (positive net heat flux) in addition to the positive flux at the strait of Gibraltar for the 2021-2050 period. The shortwave and latent flux are increasing and the longwave and sensible fluxes are decreasing compared to the 1961-1990 period due to a reduction of the cloud cover and an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and SSTs over the 2021-2050 period. The AORCMs provide a good estimates of the water budget with a drying of the region during the twenty-first century. For the ensemble mean, he decrease in precipitation and runoff is about 10 and 15% respectively and the increase in evaporation is much weaker, about 2% compared to the 1961-1990 period which confirm results obtained in recent studies. Despite a clear consistency in the trends and results between the models, this study also underlines important differences in the model set-ups, methodology and choices of some physical parameters inducing

  7. Temporal variation in the effect of heat and the role of the Italian heat prevention plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de'Donato, F; Scortichini, M; De Sario, M; de Martino, A; Michelozzi, P

    2018-05-08

    The aim of the article is to evaluate the temporal change in the effect of heat on mortality in Italy in the last 12 years after the introduction of the national heat plan. Time series analysis. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the association between maximum apparent temperature and mortality in 23 Italian cities included in the national heat plan in four study periods (before the introduction of the heat plan and three periods after the plan was in place between 2005 and 2016). The effect (relative risks) and impact (attributable fraction [AF] and number of heat-related deaths) were estimated for mild summer temperatures (20th and 75th percentile maximum apparent temperature [Tappmax]) and extreme summer temperatures (75th and 99th percentile Tappmax) in each study period. A survey of the heat preventive measures adopted over time in the cities included in the Italian heat plan was carried out to better describe adaptation measures and response. Although heat still has an impact on mortality in Italian cities, a reduction in heat-related mortality is observed progressively over time. In terms of the impact, the heat AF related to extreme temperatures declined from 6.3% in the period 1999-2002 to 4.1% in 2013-2016. Considering the entire temperature range (20th vs 99th percentile), the total number of heat-related deaths spared over the entire study period was 1900. Considering future climate change and the health burden associated to heat waves, it is important to promote adaptation measures by showing the potential effectiveness of heat prevention plans. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Inventory of future power and heat production technologies. Partial report Wind Power; Inventering av framtidens el- och vaermeproduktionstekniker. Delrapport Vindkraft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clausen, Niels-Erik; Lawaetz, Henrik; Lemming, Joergen; Morthorst, Poul Erik [Risoe National Laboratory, Roskilde (Denmark)

    2008-12-15

    The development of the wind energy technology has been very successful from the 1970s and up till now. Initially there was a battle between wind turbine concepts, but the commercial winner today is the three-bladed horizontal axis, upwind, electricity producing and grid connected wind turbine with availability on mature markets somewhere around 99%. An important contributor to the growth of the European market for wind energy technology has been EU framework legislation combined with legislation at the national level. The binding target for renewable energy in Sweden is proposed to be 49% of the final energy consumption in 2020 compared to 39.8% in 2005. To stimulate the development of wind energy and to promote a specific national goals Sweden is mainly using an electricity certificate system. The target is to increase the production of electricity from renewable sources by 17 TWh in 2016, relative to corresponding production in 2002. There is not at specific target for the use of wind energy. A future energy system that includes a high proportion of wind energy will be expected to meet the same requirements for security of supply and economic efficiency as the energy systems of today. The variability of wind power create a specific challenges for the future energy systems compared to those of today. The economics of wind power depends mainly of investment cost, operation and maintenance costs, electricity production and turbine lifetime. An average turbine installed in Europe has a total investment cost of 1.230 Euro/kW with a typically variation from approximately 1000 Euro/kW to approximately 1400 Euro/kW. The calculated costs per kWh wind generated power range from approximately 0.07-0.10 Euro/kWh at sites with low average wind speeds to approximately 0.05-0.065 Euro/kWh at good coastal positions, with an average of approximately 0.07 Euro/kWh at a medium wind site. Offshore costs are largely dependent on weather and wave conditions, water depth, and distance

  9. The Past and Future Trends of Heat Stress Based On Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index in Outdoor Environment of Tehran City, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habibi Mohraz, Majid; Ghahri, Asghar; Karimi, Mehrdad; Golbabaei, Farideh

    2016-06-01

    The workers who are working in the open and warm environments are at risk of health effects of climate and heat changes. It is expected that the risk is increase with global warming. This study aimed to investigate the changes of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index in the past and to predict their trend of future changes in Tehran, capital of Iran. The meteorological data recorded in Tehran, Iran during the statistical period between 1961 and 2009 were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization and based on them, WBGT index was calculated and processed using Man-Kendall correlation test. The results of Man-Kendall correlation test showed that the trend of changes of annual mean WBGT during the statistical period under study (1961-2009) has been significantly increasing. In addition, the result of proposed predictive model estimated that an increase of about 1.55 degree in WBGT index will be seen over 40 years from 2009 to 2050 in Tehran. Climate change in Tehran has had an effect on person's exposure to heat stresses consistent with global warming.

  10. Impact of large beam-induced heat loads on the transient operation of the beam screens and the cryogenic plants of the Future Circular Collider (FCC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia Rodrigues, H.; Tavian, L.

    2017-12-01

    The Future Circular Collider (FCC) under study at CERN will produce 50-TeV high-energy proton beams. The high-energy particle beams are bent by 16-T superconducting dipole magnets operating at 1.9 K and distributed over a circumference of 80 km. The circulating beams induce 5 MW of dynamic heat loads by several processes such as synchrotron radiation, resistive dissipation of beam image currents and electron clouds. These beam-induced heat loads will be intercepted by beam screens operating between 40 and 60 K and induce transients during beam injection. Energy ramp-up and beam dumping on the distributed beam-screen cooling loops, the sector cryogenic plants and the dedicated circulators. Based on the current baseline parameters, numerical simulations of the fluid flow in the cryogenic distribution system during a beam operation cycle were performed. The effects of the thermal inertia of the headers on the helium flow temperature at the cryogenic plant inlet as well as the temperature gradient experienced by the beam screen has been assessed. Additionally, this work enabled a thorough exergetic analysis of different cryogenic plant configurations and laid the building-block for establishing design specification of cold and warm circulators.

  11. Heat Stress in Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  12. Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

    2018-04-01

    Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

  13. Inventory of future power and heat production technologies. Partial report Energy storage; Inventering av framtidens el- och vaermeproduktionstekniker. Delrapport Energilagring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Messing, Lars; Lindahl, Sture (Gothia Power AB, Goeteborg (Sweden))

    2008-12-15

    In this report a survey of different techniques for storage of electrical energy. The following alternatives are described regarding method, characteristics, potential and economy. Batteries; Capacitors; Flywheels; Pump storage hydro power plants; Hydrogen gas generation; Air compression. Regarding evaluation of methods for storage of electrical energy. Battery storage: The development of Lithium-ion batteries are of great interest. In the present situation it is however difficult of classify battery storage as a good alternation in applications with frequent re-charging cycles and re-charging of large energy volumes. The batteries have limited life length compared to other alternatives. Also the power is limited at charging and discharging. Energy storage in capacitors: 'Super-capacitors' having large power capacity is considered to be of interest in applications where fast control of power is necessary. The ongoing development of based on carbon-nanotubes will increase the energy storage capacity compared with the today existing super-capacitors. This can in the future be an alternative to battery storage. Of further interest is also the idea to combine battery and capacitor based storage to achieve longer life-time of the batteries and faster power control. Flywheel energy storage: The energy storage capacity is relatively limited but power control can be fast. This system can be an alternative to capacitor based energy storage. Pump-storage hydro power plant: This type of energy storage is well suited and proven for time frame up to some days. In the Swedish power system there is today not any large demand of energy storage in this time frame as there is a large capacity in conventional hydro power plants with storage capacity. Pump-storage can however be of interest in the southern part of Sweden. In some operation stages the grid is loaded up to its limit due to large power transmission from the north. The pump-storage can reduce this power transfer

  14. Inventory of future power and heat production technologies. Partial report Energy storage; Inventering av framtidens el- och vaermeproduktionstekniker. Delrapport Energilagring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Messing, Lars; Lindahl, Sture [Gothia Power AB, Goeteborg (Sweden)

    2008-12-15

    In this report a survey of different techniques for storage of electrical energy. The following alternatives are described regarding method, characteristics, potential and economy. Batteries; Capacitors; Flywheels; Pump storage hydro power plants; Hydrogen gas generation; Air compression. Regarding evaluation of methods for storage of electrical energy. Battery storage: The development of Lithium-ion batteries are of great interest. In the present situation it is however difficult of classify battery storage as a good alternation in applications with frequent re-charging cycles and re-charging of large energy volumes. The batteries have limited life length compared to other alternatives. Also the power is limited at charging and discharging. Energy storage in capacitors: 'Super-capacitors' having large power capacity is considered to be of interest in applications where fast control of power is necessary. The ongoing development of based on carbon-nanotubes will increase the energy storage capacity compared with the today existing super-capacitors. This can in the future be an alternative to battery storage. Of further interest is also the idea to combine battery and capacitor based storage to achieve longer life-time of the batteries and faster power control. Flywheel energy storage: The energy storage capacity is relatively limited but power control can be fast. This system can be an alternative to capacitor based energy storage. Pump-storage hydro power plant: This type of energy storage is well suited and proven for time frame up to some days. In the Swedish power system there is today not any large demand of energy storage in this time frame as there is a large capacity in conventional hydro power plants with storage capacity. Pump-storage can however be of interest in the southern part of Sweden. In some operation stages the grid is loaded up to its limit due to large power transmission from the north. The pump-storage can reduce this power transfer during

  15. The Concomitant Use of Diuretics, Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs, and Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors or Angiotensin Receptor Blockers (Triple Whammy), Extreme Heat, and In-Hospital Acute Kidney Injury in Older Medical Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangoni, Arduino A; Kholmurodova, Feruza; Mayner, Lidia; Hakendorf, Paul; Woodman, Richard J

    2017-11-01

    We investigated whether the concomitant use of diuretics, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (triple whammy, TW) predicts in-hospital acute kidney injury (AKI) and whether admission during recorded periods of extreme heat influences this association. We retrospectively collected data on patient characteristics and use of TW/non-TW drugs on admission, AKI (increase in serum creatinine ≥ 27 µmol/l either within the first 48 h of admission or throughout hospitalization, primary outcome), length of stay (LOS), and mortality (secondary outcomes) in medical patients ≥65 years admitted (1) during five consecutive heat waves (HWs) between 2007 and 2009 (n = 382) or (2) either before or after each HW, matched for HW period, age, and admission day of the week (non-HW, controls, n = 1339). Number of TW and non-TW drugs, co-morbidities, number of daily admissions, incidence of in-hospital AKI, LOS, and mortality were similar in the HW and non-HW groups. After adjusting for clinical and demographic confounders, logistic regression showed that TW use did not predict AKI within 48 h of admission either during non-HW periods (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.34-1.83, P = 0.58) or during HWs (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.21-2.97, P = 0.97). Similar results were observed when AKI was captured throughout hospitalization. TW use did not predict LOS or mortality irrespective of environmental temperature on admission. TW use on admission did not predict in-hospital AKI, LOS, or mortality in older medical patients admitted either during periods of normal environmental temperature or during HWs.

  16. Interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lei; Oppenheimer, Michael; Zhu, Qing; Baldwin, Jane W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Bou-Zeid, Elie; Guan, Kaiyu; Liu, Xu

    2018-03-01

    Heat waves (HWs) are among the most damaging climate extremes to human society. Climate models consistently project that HW frequency, severity, and duration will increase markedly over this century. For urban residents, the urban heat island (UHI) effect further exacerbates the heat stress resulting from HWs. Here we use a climate model to investigate the interactions between the UHI and HWs in 50 cities in the United States under current climate and future warming scenarios. We examine UHI2m (defined as urban-rural difference in 2m-height air temperature) and UHIs (defined as urban-rural difference in radiative surface temperature). Our results show significant sensitivity of the interaction between UHI and HWs to local background climate and warming scenarios. Sensitivity also differs between daytime and nighttime. During daytime, cities in the temperate climate region show significant synergistic effects between UHI and HWs in current climate, with an average of 0.4 K higher UHI2m or 2.8 K higher UHIs during HWs than during normal days. These synergistic effects, however, diminish in future warmer climates. In contrast, the daytime synergistic effects for cities in dry regions are insignificant in the current climate, but emerge in future climates. At night, the synergistic effects are similar across climate regions in the current climate, and are stronger in future climate scenarios. We use a biophysical factorization method to disentangle the mechanisms behind the interactions between UHI and HWs that explain the spatial-temporal patterns of the interactions. Results show that the difference in the increase of urban versus rural evaporation and enhanced anthropogenic heat emissions (air conditioning energy use) during HWs are key contributors to the synergistic effects during daytime. The contrast in water availability between urban and rural land plays an important role in determining the contribution of evaporation. At night, the enhanced release of stored

  17. Moving in extreme environments: what's extreme and who decides?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotter, James David; Tipton, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    Humans work, rest and play in immensely varied extreme environments. The term 'extreme' typically refers to insufficiency or excess of one or more stressors, such as thermal energy or gravity. Individuals' behavioural and physiological capacity to endure and enjoy such environments varies immensely. Adverse effects of acute exposure to these environments are readily identifiable (e.g. heat stroke or bone fracture), whereas adverse effects of chronic exposure (e.g. stress fractures or osteoporosis) may be as important but much less discernable. Modern societies have increasingly sought to protect people from such stressors and, in that way, minimise their adverse effects. Regulations are thus established, and advice is provided on what is 'acceptable' exposure. Examples include work/rest cycles in the heat, hydration regimes, rates of ascent to and duration of stay at altitude and diving depth. While usually valuable and well intentioned, it is important to realise the breadth and importance of limitations associated with such guidelines. Regulations and advisories leave less room for self-determination, learning and perhaps adaptation. Regulations based on stress (e.g. work/rest cycles relative to WBGT) are more practical but less direct than those based on strain (e.g. core temperature), but even the latter can be substantively limited (e.g. by lack of criterion validation and allowance for behavioural regulation in the research on which they are based). Extreme Physiology & Medicine is publishing a series of reviews aimed at critically examining the issues involved with self- versus regulation-controlled human movement acutely and chronically in extreme environments. These papers, arising from a research symposium in 2013, are about the impact of people engaging in such environments and the effect of rules and guidelines on their safety, enjoyment, autonomy and productivity. The reviews will cover occupational heat stress, sporting heat stress, hydration, diving

  18. Evolution caused by extreme events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Peter R; Grant, B Rosemary; Huey, Raymond B; Johnson, Marc T J; Knoll, Andrew H; Schmitt, Johanna

    2017-06-19

    Extreme events can be a major driver of evolutionary change over geological and contemporary timescales. Outstanding examples are evolutionary diversification following mass extinctions caused by extreme volcanism or asteroid impact. The evolution of organisms in contemporary time is typically viewed as a gradual and incremental process that results from genetic change, environmental perturbation or both. However, contemporary environments occasionally experience strong perturbations such as heat waves, floods, hurricanes, droughts and pest outbreaks. These extreme events set up strong selection pressures on organisms, and are small-scale analogues of the dramatic changes documented in the fossil record. Because extreme events are rare, almost by definition, they are difficult to study. So far most attention has been given to their ecological rather than to their evolutionary consequences. We review several case studies of contemporary evolution in response to two types of extreme environmental perturbations, episodic (pulse) or prolonged (press). Evolution is most likely to occur when extreme events alter community composition. We encourage investigators to be prepared for evolutionary change in response to rare events during long-term field studies.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  19. Temperature Extremes, Health, and Human Capital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zivin, Joshua Graff; Shrader, Jeffrey

    2016-01-01

    The extreme temperatures expected under climate change may be especially harmful to children. Children are more vulnerable to heat partly because of their physiological features, but, perhaps more important, because they behave and respond differently than adults do. Children are less likely to manage their own heat risk and may have fewer ways to…

  20. Enhancing the Extreme Climate Index (ECI) to monitor climate extremes for an index-based insurance scheme across Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helmschrot, J.; Malherbe, J.; Chamunorwa, M.; Muthige, M.; Petitta, M.; Calmanti, S.; Cucchi, M.; Syroka, J.; Iyahen, E.; Engelbrecht, F.

    2017-12-01

    Climate services are a key component of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, which require the analysis of current climate conditions, future climate change scenarios and the identification of adaptation strategies, including the capacity to finance and implement effective adaptation options. The Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) proposed by the African Risk Capacity (ARC) developed a climate index insurance scheme, which is based on the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events, thus indicating possible shifts to a new climate regime in various regions. The main hazards covered by ECI are extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding other region-specific risk events. The ECI is standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be compared. Initially developed by an Italian company specialized in Climate Services, research is now conducted at the CSIR and SASSCAL, to verify and further develop the ECI for application in southern African countries, through a project initiated by the World Food Programme (WFP) and ARC. The paper will present findings on the most appropriate definitions of extremely wet and dry conditions in Africa, in terms of their impact across a multitude of sub-regional climates of the African continent. Findings of a verification analysis of the ECI, as determined through vegetation monitoring data and the SASSCAL weather station network will be discussed. Changes in the ECI under climate change will subsequently be projected, using detailed regional projections generated by the CSIR and through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This work will be concluded by the development of a web-based climate service informing African Stakeholders on climate extremes.

  1. Global predictability of temperature extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

    2018-05-01

    Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

  2. The urban heat island and its impact on heat waves and human health in Shanghai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Jianguo; Zheng, Youfei; Tang, Xu; Guo, Changyi; Li, Liping; Song, Guixiang; Zhen, Xinrong; Yuan, Dong; Kalkstein, Adam J; Li, Furong

    2010-01-01

    With global warming forecast to continue into the foreseeable future, heat waves are very likely to increase in both frequency and intensity. In urban regions, these future heat waves will be exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, and will have the potential to negatively influence the health and welfare of urban residents. In order to investigate the health effects of the urban heat island (UHI) in Shanghai, China, 30 years of meteorological records (1975-2004) were examined for 11 first- and second-order weather stations in and around Shanghai. Additionally, automatic weather observation data recorded in recent years as well as daily all-cause summer mortality counts in 11 urban, suburban, and exurban regions (1998-2004) in Shanghai have been used. The results show that different sites (city center or surroundings) have experienced different degrees of warming as a result of increasing urbanization. In turn, this has resulted in a more extensive urban heat island effect, causing additional hot days and heat waves in urban regions compared to rural locales. An examination of summer mortality rates in and around Shanghai yields heightened heat-related mortality in urban regions, and we conclude that the UHI is directly responsible, acting to worsen the adverse health effects from exposure to extreme thermal conditions.

  3. Improving simulated long-term responses of vegetation to temperature and precipitation extremes using the ACME land model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricciuto, D. M.; Warren, J.; Guha, A.

    2017-12-01

    While carbon and energy fluxes in current Earth system models generally have reasonable instantaneous responses to extreme temperature and precipitation events, they often do not adequately represent the long-term impacts of these events. For example, simulated net primary productivity (NPP) may decrease during an extreme heat wave or drought, but may recover rapidly to pre-event levels following the conclusion of the extreme event. However, field measurements indicate that long-lasting damage to leaves and other plant components often occur, potentially affecting the carbon and energy balance for months after the extreme event. The duration and frequency of such extreme conditions is likely to shift in the future, and therefore it is critical for Earth system models to better represent these processes for more accurate predictions of future vegetation productivity and land-atmosphere feedbacks. Here we modify the structure of the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) land surface model to represent long-term impacts and test the improved model against observations from experiments that applied extreme conditions in growth chambers. Additionally, we test the model against eddy covariance measurements that followed extreme conditions at selected locations in North America, and against satellite-measured vegetation indices following regional extreme events.

  4. Sensitivity of UK butterflies to local climatic extremes: which life stages are most at risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott Long, Osgur; Warren, Rachel; Price, Jeff; Brereton, Tom M; Botham, Marc S; Franco, Aldina M A

    2017-01-01

    There is growing recognition as to the importance of extreme climatic events (ECEs) in determining changes in species populations. In fact, it is often the extent of climate variability that determines a population's ability to persist at a given site. This study examined the impact of ECEs on the resident UK butterfly species (n = 41) over a 37-year period. The study investigated the sensitivity of butterflies to four extremes (drought, extreme precipitation, extreme heat and extreme cold), identified at the site level, across each species' life stages. Variations in the vulnerability of butterflies at the site level were also compared based on three life-history traits (voltinism, habitat requirement and range). This is the first study to examine the effects of ECEs at the site level across all life stages of a butterfly, identifying sensitive life stages and unravelling the role life-history traits play in species sensitivity to ECEs. Butterfly population changes were found to be primarily driven by temperature extremes. Extreme heat was detrimental during overwintering periods and beneficial during adult periods and extreme cold had opposite impacts on both of these life stages. Previously undocumented detrimental effects were identified for extreme precipitation during the pupal life stage for univoltine species. Generalists were found to have significantly more negative associations with ECEs than specialists. With future projections of warmer, wetter winters and more severe weather events, UK butterflies could come under severe pressure given the findings of this study. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

  5. Prinsip Umum Penatalaksanaan Cedera Olahraga Heat Stroke

    OpenAIRE

    Ade Tobing, Saharun Iso

    2016-01-01

    Exercises that are conducted in an extreme heat environment can cause heat injury. Heatinjury is associated with disturbance to temperature regulation and cardiovascular systems. Heatstroke is the most severe type of heat injury. Heat stroke is associated with high morbidity andmortality numbers, particularly if therapy treatment is delayed. In general, heat stroke is caused bytwo things, namely increase in heat production and decrease in heat loss.Heat stroke signs include: (1) rectal temper...

  6. Extremely Preterm Birth

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Events Advocacy For Patients About ACOG Extremely Preterm Birth Home For Patients Search FAQs Extremely Preterm Birth ... Spanish FAQ173, June 2016 PDF Format Extremely Preterm Birth Pregnancy When is a baby considered “preterm” or “ ...

  7. Design and instrumentation of an automotive heat pump system using ambient air, engine coolant and exhaust gas as a heat source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosoz, M.; Direk, M.; Yigit, K.S.; Canakci, M.; Alptekin, E.; Turkcan, A.

    2009-01-01

    Because the amount of waste heat used for comfort heating of the passenger compartment in motor vehicles decreases continuously as a result of the increasing engine efficiencies originating from recent developments in internal combustion engine technology, it is estimated that heat requirement of the passenger compartment in vehicles using future generation diesel engines will not be met by the waste heat taken from the engine coolant. The automotive heat pump (AHP) system can heat the passenger compartment individually, or it can support the present heating system of the vehicle. The AHP system can also be employed in electric vehicles, which do not have waste heat, as well as vehicles driven by a fuel cell. The authors of this paper observed that such an AHP system using ambient air as a heat source could not meet the heat requirement of the compartment when ambient temperature was extremely low. The reason is the decrease in the amount of heat taken from the ambient air as a result of low evaporating temperatures. Furthermore, the moisture condensed from air freezed on the evaporator surface, thus blocking the air flow through it. This problem can be solved by using the heat of engine coolant or exhaust gases. In this case, the AHP system can have a higher heating capacity and reuse waste heat. (author)

  8. Predicting location-specific extreme coastal floods in the future climate by introducing a probabilistic method to calculate maximum elevation of the continuous water mass caused by a combination of water level variations and wind waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leijala, Ulpu; Björkqvist, Jan-Victor; Johansson, Milla M.; Pellikka, Havu

    2017-04-01

    Future coastal management continuously strives for more location-exact and precise methods to investigate possible extreme sea level events and to face flooding hazards in the most appropriate way. Evaluating future flooding risks by understanding the behaviour of the joint effect of sea level variations and wind waves is one of the means to make more comprehensive flooding hazard analysis, and may at first seem like a straightforward task to solve. Nevertheless, challenges and limitations such as availability of time series of the sea level and wave height components, the quality of data, significant locational variability of coastal wave height, as well as assumptions to be made depending on the study location, make the task more complicated. In this study, we present a statistical method for combining location-specific probability distributions of water level variations (including local sea level observations and global mean sea level rise) and wave run-up (based on wave buoy measurements). The goal of our method is to obtain a more accurate way to account for the waves when making flooding hazard analysis on the coast compared to the approach of adding a separate fixed wave action height on top of sea level -based flood risk estimates. As a result of our new method, we gain maximum elevation heights with different return periods of the continuous water mass caused by a combination of both phenomena, "the green water". We also introduce a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the properties and functioning of our method. The sensitivity test is based on using theoretical wave distributions representing different alternatives of wave behaviour in relation to sea level variations. As these wave distributions are merged with the sea level distribution, we get information on how the different wave height conditions and shape of the wave height distribution influence the joint results. Our method presented here can be used as an advanced tool to minimize over- and

  9. Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cattiaux, Julien

    2010-01-01

    Europe witnessed a spate of record-breaking warm seasons during the 2000's. As illustrated by the devastating heat-wave of the summer 2003, these episodes induced strong societal and environmental impacts. Such occurrence of exceptional events over a relatively short time period raised up many questionings in the present context of climate change. In particular, can recent temperature extremes be considered as 'previews' of future climate conditions? Do they result from an increasing temperature variability? These questions constitute the main motivations of this thesis. Thus, our work aims to contribute to the understanding of physical mechanisms responsible for seasonal temperature extremes in Europe, in order to anticipate their future statistical characteristics. Involved processes are assessed by both statistical data-analysis of observations and climate projections and regional modeling experiments. First we show that while the inter-annual European temperature variability appears driven by disturbances in the North-Atlantic dynamics, the recent warming is likely to be dissociated with potential circulation changes. This inconsistency climaxes during the exceptionally mild autumn of 2006, whose temperature anomaly is only half explained by the atmospheric flow. Recent warm surface conditions in the North-Atlantic ocean seem to substantially contribute to the European warming in autumn-winter, through the establishment of advective and radiative processes. In spring-summer, since both advection by the westerlies and Atlantic warming are reduced, more local processes appear predominant (e.g. soil moisture, clouds, aerosols). Then the issue of future evolution of the relationship between North-Atlantic dynamics and European temperatures is addressed, based on climate projections of the International Panel on Climate Change. Multi-model analysis, using both flow-analogues and weather regimes methods, show that the inconsistency noticed over recent decades is

  10. Extreme Temperatures and Health in Spain in a Context of Climate Change: Some Lines of Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Linares

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The heat wave that occurred in Europe in the summer of 2003 led health authorities to develop Prevention Plans to minimize the impacts of heat waves on citizens´ health. Spain developed, based on existing research, a High Temperature Prevention Plan, which was in force until 2015, when it was updated. This paper summarizes studies carried out in our country that led to the updating of this Plan. We also analyze some studies conducted in Spain regarding cold waves and their attributable mortality; the temporal evolution of heat impacts according to age groups; the detection of specially susceptible groups; the geographic variability of the health effects of heat waves and their applicability to the improvement of Prevention Plans; and future lines of research in the field of extreme temperatures and their impact on health.

  11. Extreme Events and Energy Providers: Science and Innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiou, P.; Vautard, R.

    2012-04-01

    Most socio-economic regulations related to the resilience to climate extremes, from infrastructure or network design to insurance premiums, are based on a present-day climate with an assumption of stationarity. Climate extremes (heat waves, cold spells, droughts, storms and wind stilling) affect in particular energy production, supply, demand and security in several ways. While national, European or international projects have generated vast amounts of climate projections for the 21st century, their practical use in long-term planning remains limited. Estimating probabilistic diagnostics of energy user relevant variables from those multi-model projections will help the energy sector to elaborate medium to long-term plans, and will allow the assessment of climate risks associated to those plans. The project "Extreme Events for Energy Providers" (E3P) aims at filling a gap between climate science and its practical use in the energy sector and creating in turn favourable conditions for new business opportunities. The value chain ranges from addressing research questions directly related to energy-significant climate extremes to providing innovative tools of information and decision making (including methodologies, best practices and software) and climate science training for the energy sector, with a focus on extreme events. Those tools will integrate the scientific knowledge that is developed by scientific communities, and translate it into a usable probabilistic framework. The project will deliver projection tools assessing the probabilities of future energy-relevant climate extremes at a range of spatial scales varying from pan-European to local scales. The E3P project is funded by the Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC Climate). We will present the mechanisms of interactions between academic partners, SMEs and industrial partners for this project. Those mechanisms are elementary bricks of a climate service.

  12. Automation Rover for Extreme Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauder, Jonathan; Hilgemann, Evan; Johnson, Michael; Parness, Aaron; Hall, Jeffrey; Kawata, Jessie; Stack, Kathryn

    2017-01-01

    Almost 2,300 years ago the ancient Greeks built the Antikythera automaton. This purely mechanical computer accurately predicted past and future astronomical events long before electronics existed1. Automata have been credibly used for hundreds of years as computers, art pieces, and clocks. However, in the past several decades automata have become less popular as the capabilities of electronics increased, leaving them an unexplored solution for robotic spacecraft. The Automaton Rover for Extreme Environments (AREE) proposes an exciting paradigm shift from electronics to a fully mechanical system, enabling longitudinal exploration of the most extreme environments within the solar system.

  13. Dual Axis Controller for Extreme Environments, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Dual Axis Controller for Extreme Environments (DACEE) addresses a critical need of NASA's future exploration plans to investigate extreme environments within our...

  14. Heat roadmap China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xiong, Weiming; Wang, Yu; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2015-01-01

    District heating is regarded as a key element of energy saving actions in the Chinese national energy strategy, while space heating in China is currently still dominated by coal boilers. However, there is no existing quantitative study to analyse the future heat strategy for China. Therefore...

  15. District heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, L.

    1993-01-01

    The environmental risks and uncertainties of a high-energy future are disturbing and give rise to several reservations concerning the use of fossil fuels. A number of technologies will help to reduce atmospheric pollution. In Denmark special importance is attached to the following: Energy conservation. Efficient energy conversion. Renewable energy sources. District heating, combined production of heat and power. Many agree that district heating (DH), produced by the traditional heat-only plant, and combined heat and power (CHP) have enormous potential when considering thermal efficiency and lowered environmental impacts: The basic technology of each is proven, it would be relatively simple to satisfy a substantial part of the energy demand, and their high efficiencies mean reduced pollution including greenhouse gas emissions. This is especially important in high population density areas - the obviously preferred sites for such energy generation. Compared with individual heating DH can provide a community with an operationally efficient and most often also an economically competitive heat supply. This is particularly true under the circumstances where the DH system is supplied from CHP plants. Their use results in very substantial improvements in overall efficiency. Further environmental improvements arise from the reduced air pollution obtainable in reasonably large CHP plants equipped with flue gas cleaning to remove particles, sulphur dioxide, and nitrogen acids. As a consequence of these considerations, DH plays an important role in fulfilling the space and water heating demand in many countries. This is especially the case in Denmark where this technology is utilised to a very great extent. Indeed, DH is one of the reasons why Denmark has relatively good air quality in the cities. (au)

  16. Mapping the Decadal Spatio-temporal Variation of Social Vulnerability to Hydro-climatic Extremes over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    H, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

    2015-12-01

    Human induced global warming is unequivocal and observational studies shows that, this has led to increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-climatic extremes, most importantly precipitation extreme, heat waves and drought; and also is expected to be increased in the future. The occurrence of these extremes have a devastating effects on nation's economy and on societal well-being. Previous studies on India provided the evidences of significant changes in the precipitation extreme from pre- to post-1950, with huge spatial heterogeneity; and projections of heat waves indicated that significant part of India will experience heat stress conditions in the future. Under these circumstance, it is necessary to develop a nation-wide social vulnerability map to scrutinize the adequacy of existing emergency management. Yet there has been no systematic past efforts on mapping social vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes at nation-wide for India. Therefore, immediate efforts are required to quantify the social vulnerability, particularly developing country like India, where major transformations in demographic characteristics and development patterns are evident during past decades. In the present study, we perform a comprehensive spatio-temporal social vulnerability analysis by considering multiple sensitive indicators for three decades (1990-2010) which identifies the hot-spots, with higher vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes. The population datasets are procured from Census of India and the meteorological datasets are obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The study derives interesting results on decadal changes of spatial distribution of risk, considering social vulnerability and hazard to extremes.

  17. District heating in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herzog, F.

    1991-01-01

    District heating has been used in Switzerland for more than 50 years. Its share of the heat market is less than 3% today. An analysis of the use of district heating in various European countries shows that a high share of district heating in the heat market is always dependent on ideal conditions for its use. Market prospects and possible future developments in the use of district heating in Switzerland are described in this paper. The main Swiss producers and distributors of district heating are members of the Association of District Heating Producers and Distributors. This association supports the installation of district heating facilities where ecological, energetical and economic aspects indicate that district heating would be a good solution. (author) 2 tabs., 6 refs

  18. Energy storage using phase-change materials for active solar heating and cooling: An evaluation of future research and development direction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borkowski, R. J.; Stovall, T. K.; Kedl, R. J.; Tomlinson, J. J.

    1982-04-01

    The current state of the art and commercial potential of active solar heating and cooling systems for buildings, and the use of thermal energy storage with these systems are assessed. The need for advanced latent heat storage subsystems in these applications and priorities for their development are determined. Latent storage subsystems are advantageous in applications where their compactness may be exploited. It is suggested that subsystems could facilitate storage in retrofit applications in which storage would be physically impossible otherwise.

  19. Extreme High-Temperature Events Over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM Low-Warming Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Donghuan; Zhou, Tianjun; Zou, Liwei; Zhang, Wenxia; Zhang, Lixia

    2018-02-01

    Extreme high-temperature events have large socioeconomic and human health impacts. East Asia (EA) is a populous region, and it is crucial to assess the changes in extreme high-temperature events in this region under different climate change scenarios. The Community Earth System Model low-warming experiment data were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in EA under 1.5°C and 2°C warming conditions above preindustrial levels. The results show that the magnitude of warming in EA is approximately 0.2°C higher than the global mean. Most populous subregions, including eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, will see more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting extreme temperature events under 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The 0.5°C lower warming will help avoid 35%-46% of the increases in extreme high-temperature events in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration in EA with maximal avoidance values (37%-49%) occurring in Mongolia. Thus, it is beneficial for EA to limit the warming target to 1.5°C rather than 2°C.

  20. Miniature Heat Pipes

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    Small Business Innovation Research contracts from Goddard Space Flight Center to Thermacore Inc. have fostered the company work on devices tagged "heat pipes" for space application. To control the extreme temperature ranges in space, heat pipes are important to spacecraft. The problem was to maintain an 8-watt central processing unit (CPU) at less than 90 C in a notebook computer using no power, with very little space available and without using forced convection. Thermacore's answer was in the design of a powder metal wick that transfers CPU heat from a tightly confined spot to an area near available air flow. The heat pipe technology permits a notebook computer to be operated in any position without loss of performance. Miniature heat pipe technology has successfully been applied, such as in Pentium Processor notebook computers. The company expects its heat pipes to accommodate desktop computers as well. Cellular phones, camcorders, and other hand-held electronics are forsible applications for heat pipes.

  1. Heat Pipes

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-01-01

    Bobs Candies, Inc. produces some 24 million pounds of candy a year, much of it 'Christmas candy.' To meet Christmas demand, it must produce year-round. Thousands of cases of candy must be stored a good part of the year in two huge warehouses. The candy is very sensitive to temperature. The warehouses must be maintained at temperatures of 78-80 degrees Fahrenheit with relative humidities of 38- 42 percent. Such precise climate control of enormous buildings can be very expensive. In 1985, energy costs for the single warehouse ran to more than 57,000 for the year. NASA and the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) were adapting heat pipe technology to control humidity in building environments. The heat pipes handle the jobs of precooling and reheating without using energy. The company contacted a FSEC systems engineer and from that contact eventually emerged a cooperative test project to install a heat pipe system at Bobs' warehouses, operate it for a period of time to determine accurately the cost benefits, and gather data applicable to development of future heat pipe systems. Installation was completed in mid-1987 and data collection is still in progress. In 1989, total energy cost for two warehouses, with the heat pipes complementing the air conditioning system was 28,706, and that figures out to a cost reduction.

  2. Impacts of droughts and extreme-temperature events on gross primary production and ecosystem respiration: a systematic assessment across ecosystems and climate zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. von Buttlar

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Extreme climatic events, such as droughts and heat stress, induce anomalies in ecosystem–atmosphere CO2 fluxes, such as gross primary production (GPP and ecosystem respiration (Reco, and, hence, can change the net ecosystem carbon balance. However, despite our increasing understanding of the underlying mechanisms, the magnitudes of the impacts of different types of extremes on GPP and Reco within and between ecosystems remain poorly predicted. Here we aim to identify the major factors controlling the amplitude of extreme-event impacts on GPP, Reco, and the resulting net ecosystem production (NEP. We focus on the impacts of heat and drought and their combination. We identified hydrometeorological extreme events in consistently downscaled water availability and temperature measurements over a 30-year time period. We then used FLUXNET eddy covariance flux measurements to estimate the CO2 flux anomalies during these extreme events across dominant vegetation types and climate zones. Overall, our results indicate that short-term heat extremes increased respiration more strongly than they downregulated GPP, resulting in a moderate reduction in the ecosystem's carbon sink potential. In the absence of heat stress, droughts tended to have smaller and similarly dampening effects on both GPP and Reco and, hence, often resulted in neutral NEP responses. The combination of drought and heat typically led to a strong decrease in GPP, whereas heat and drought impacts on respiration partially offset each other. Taken together, compound heat and drought events led to the strongest C sink reduction compared to any single-factor extreme. A key insight of this paper, however, is that duration matters most: for heat stress during droughts, the magnitude of impacts systematically increased with duration, whereas under heat stress without drought, the response of Reco over time turned from an initial increase to a downregulation after about 2 weeks. This confirms

  3. Impacts of droughts and extreme-temperature events on gross primary production and ecosystem respiration: a systematic assessment across ecosystems and climate zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Buttlar, Jannis; Zscheischler, Jakob; Rammig, Anja; Sippel, Sebastian; Reichstein, Markus; Knohl, Alexander; Jung, Martin; Menzer, Olaf; Altaf Arain, M.; Buchmann, Nina; Cescatti, Alessandro; Gianelle, Damiano; Kiely, Gerard; Law, Beverly E.; Magliulo, Vincenzo; Margolis, Hank; McCaughey, Harry; Merbold, Lutz; Migliavacca, Mirco; Montagnani, Leonardo; Oechel, Walter; Pavelka, Marian; Peichl, Matthias; Rambal, Serge; Raschi, Antonio; Scott, Russell L.; Vaccari, Francesco P.; van Gorsel, Eva; Varlagin, Andrej; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Mahecha, Miguel D.

    2018-03-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as droughts and heat stress, induce anomalies in ecosystem-atmosphere CO2 fluxes, such as gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco), and, hence, can change the net ecosystem carbon balance. However, despite our increasing understanding of the underlying mechanisms, the magnitudes of the impacts of different types of extremes on GPP and Reco within and between ecosystems remain poorly predicted. Here we aim to identify the major factors controlling the amplitude of extreme-event impacts on GPP, Reco, and the resulting net ecosystem production (NEP). We focus on the impacts of heat and drought and their combination. We identified hydrometeorological extreme events in consistently downscaled water availability and temperature measurements over a 30-year time period. We then used FLUXNET eddy covariance flux measurements to estimate the CO2 flux anomalies during these extreme events across dominant vegetation types and climate zones. Overall, our results indicate that short-term heat extremes increased respiration more strongly than they downregulated GPP, resulting in a moderate reduction in the ecosystem's carbon sink potential. In the absence of heat stress, droughts tended to have smaller and similarly dampening effects on both GPP and Reco and, hence, often resulted in neutral NEP responses. The combination of drought and heat typically led to a strong decrease in GPP, whereas heat and drought impacts on respiration partially offset each other. Taken together, compound heat and drought events led to the strongest C sink reduction compared to any single-factor extreme. A key insight of this paper, however, is that duration matters most: for heat stress during droughts, the magnitude of impacts systematically increased with duration, whereas under heat stress without drought, the response of Reco over time turned from an initial increase to a downregulation after about 2 weeks. This confirms earlier theories that

  4. Increasing impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Bianchi, Alessandra; Feyen, Luc; Silva, Filipe Batista e.; Marin, Mario; Lavalle, Carlo; Leblois, Antoine

    2016-04-01

    The projected increases in exposure to multiple climate hazards in many regions of Europe, emphasize the relevance of a multi-hazard risk assessment to comprehensively quantify potential impacts of climate change and develop suitable adaptation strategies. In this context, quantifying the future impacts of climatic extremes on critical infrastructures is crucial due to their key role for human wellbeing and their effects on the overall economy. Critical infrastructures describe the existing assets and systems that are essential for the maintenance of vital societal functions, health, safety, security, economic or social well-being of people, and the disruption or destruction of which would have a significant impact as a result of the failure to maintain those functions. We assess the direct damages of heat and cold waves, river and coastal flooding, droughts, wildfires and windstorms to energy, transport, industry and social infrastructures in Europe along the 21st century. The methodology integrates in a coherent framework climate hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. Overall damage is expected to rise up to 38 billion €/yr, ten time-folds the current climate damage, with drastic variations in risk scenarios. Exemplificative are drought and heat-related damages that could represent 70% of the overall climate damage in 2080s versus the current 12%. Many regions, prominently Southern Europe, will likely suffer multiple stresses and systematic infrastructure failures due to climate extremes if no suitable adaptation measures will be taken.

  5. Design and fabrication of heat resistant multilayers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorne, J.M.; Knight, L.V.; Peterson, B.G.; Perkins, R.T.; Gray, K.J.

    1986-01-01

    Many promising applications of multilayer x-ray optical elements subject them to intense radiation. This paper discusses the selection of optimal pairs of materials to resist heat damage and presents simulations of multilayer performance under extreme heat loadings

  6. Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; van der Wiel, Karin; Sebastian, Antonia; Singh, Roop; Arrighi, Julie; Otto, Friederike; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Vecchi, Gabriel; Cullen, Heidi

    2017-12-01

    During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy-1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy-1) over a large area in the current climate. Observations since 1880 over the region show a clear positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation of between 12% and 22%, roughly two times the increase of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This would indicate that the moisture flux was increased by both the moisture content and stronger winds or updrafts driven by the heat of condensation of the moisture. We also analysed extreme rainfall in the Houston area in three ensembles of 25 km resolution models. The first also shows 2 × CC scaling, the second 1 × CC scaling and the third did not have a realistic representation of extreme rainfall on the Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%-19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5-5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston’s flood protection system.

  7. Extreme climate in China. Facts, simulation and projection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Hui-Jun; Sun, Jian-Qi; Chen, Huo-Po; Zhu, Ya-Li; Zhang, Ying; Jiang, Da-Bang; Lang, Xian-Mei; Fan, Ke; Yu, En-Tao [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics; Yang, Song [NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2012-06-15

    In this paper, studies on extreme climate in China including extreme temperature and precipitation, dust weather activity, tropical cyclone activity, intense snowfall and cold surge activity, floods, and droughts are reviewed based on the peer-reviewed publications in recent decades. The review is focused first on the climatological features, variability, and trends in the past half century and then on simulations and projections based on global and regional climate models. As the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increased throughout China, heat wave intensity and frequency overall increased in the past half century, with a large rate after the 1980s. The daily or yearly minimum SAT increased more significantly than the mean or maximum SAT. The long-term change in precipitation is predominantly characterized by the so-called southern flood and northern drought pattern in eastern China and by the overall increase over Northwest China. The interdecadal variation of monsoon, represented by the monsoon weakening in the end of 1970s, is largely responsible for this change in mean precipitation. Precipitation-related extreme events (e.g., heavy rainfall and intense snowfall) have become more frequent and intense generally over China in the recent years, with large spatial features. Dust weather activity, however, has become less frequent over northern China in the recent years, as result of weakened cold surge activity, reinforced precipitation, and improved vegetation condition. State-of-the-art climate models are capable of reproducing some features of the mean climate and extreme climate events. However, discrepancies among models in simulating and projecting the mean and extreme climate are also demonstrated by many recent studies. Regional models with higher resolutions often perform better than global models. To predict and project climate variations and extremes, many new approaches and schemes based on dynamical models, statistical methods, or their

  8. Extreme environment electronics

    CERN Document Server

    Cressler, John D

    2012-01-01

    Unfriendly to conventional electronic devices, circuits, and systems, extreme environments represent a serious challenge to designers and mission architects. The first truly comprehensive guide to this specialized field, Extreme Environment Electronics explains the essential aspects of designing and using devices, circuits, and electronic systems intended to operate in extreme environments, including across wide temperature ranges and in radiation-intense scenarios such as space. The Definitive Guide to Extreme Environment Electronics Featuring contributions by some of the world's foremost exp

  9. Simulation of Lake Surface Heat Fluxes by the Canadian Small Lake Model: Offline Performance Assessment for Future Coupling with a Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pernica, P.; Guerrero, J. L.; MacKay, M.; Wheater, H. S.

    2014-12-01

    Lakes strongly influence local and regional climate especially in regions where they are abundant. Development of a lake model for the purpose of integration within a regional climate model is therefore a subject of scientific interest. Of particular importance are the heat flux predictions provided by the lake model since they function as key forcings in a fully coupled atmosphere-land-lake system. The first step towards a coupled model is to validate and characterize the accuracy of the lake model over a range of conditions and to identify limitations. In this work, validation results from offline tests of the Canadian Small Lake Model; a deterministic, computationally efficient, 1D integral model, are presented. Heat fluxes (sensible and latent) and surface water temperatures simulated by the model are compared with in situ observations from two lakes; Landing Lake (NWT, Canada) and L239 (ELA, Canada) for the 2007-2009 period. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify key parameters important for heat flux predictions. The results demonstrate the ability of the 1-D lake model to reproduce both diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and surface temperatures for the open water period. These results, in context of regional climate modelling are also discussed.

  10. Extreme value distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Ahsanullah, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the book is to give a through account of the basic theory of extreme value distributions. The book cover a wide range of materials available to date. The central ideas and results of extreme value distributions are presented. The book rwill be useful o applied statisticians as well statisticians interrested to work in the area of extreme value distributions.vmonograph presents the central ideas and results of extreme value distributions.The monograph gives self-contained of theory and applications of extreme value distributions.

  11. Heat stress related dairy cow mortality during heat waves and control periods in rural Southern Ontario from 2010?2012

    OpenAIRE

    Bishop-Williams, Katherine E.; Berke, Olaf; Pearl, David L.; Hand, Karen; Kelton, David F.

    2015-01-01

    Background Heat stress is a physiological response to extreme environmental heat such as heat waves. Heat stress can result in mortality in dairy cows when extreme heat is both rapidly changing and has a long duration. As a result of climate change, heat waves, which are defined as 3 days of temperatures of 32 ?C or above, are an increasingly frequent extreme weather phenomenon in Southern Ontario. Heat waves are increasing the risk for on-farm dairy cow mortality in Southern Ontario. Heat st...

  12. Planning for a Low Carbon Future? Comparing Heat Pumps and Cogeneration as the Energy System Options for a New Residential Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jukka Heinonen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to compare, from an urban planning perspective, the choice between combined heat and power (CHP and a ground-source heat pump (HP as the energy systems of a new residential area in the light of the uncertainty related to the assessments. There has been a strong push globally for CHP due to its climate mitigation potential compared to separate production, and consequently it is often prioritized in planning without questioning. However, the uncertainties in assessing the emissions from CHP and alternative options in a certain planning situation make it very difficult to give robust decision guidelines. In addition, even the order of magnitude of the climate impact of a certain plan is actually difficult to assess robustly. With a case study of the new residential development of Härmälänranta in Tampere, Finland, we show how strongly the uncertainties related to (1 utilizing average or marginal electricity as the reference; (2 assigning emissions intensities for the production; and (3 allocating the emissions from CHP to heat and electricity affect the results and lead to varying decision guidelines. We also depict how a rather rarely utilized method in assigning the emissions from CHP is the most robust for planning support.

  13. Extreme Temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanigachalam, A.; Achutarao, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    n the summer of 2015 a heat wave claimed more than 2500 lives of southeastern India. Wehner et al., (2016) showed that the risk of this heat wave has increased due to anthropogenic forcings. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, surface temperature over India shows a rate of increase of about 0.2°C/decade during the 21st Century (Basha et al., 2017). The extreme temperatures that have occurred in the recent past and further increases projected for the future have implications for human health and productivity. In light of the Paris accords, future stabilization of global mean temperature at the 1.5°C above pre-industrial aspirational target and the "not to be exceeded" 2°C target (still higher than current temperatures), the possibility of increases in extreme temperatures under these scenarios is very real. In this study we seek to understand the nature of extreme temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C worlds in comparison to the current climate. We make use of model output contributed under the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project (HAPPI; Mitchell et al., 2017). The HAPPI database contains output from many atmospheric GCMs with multiple simulations ( 100 each) of historical (2005-2015), 1.5°C warmer decade, and 2°C warmer decade. The large number of ensembles provides an opportunity to study the extremes in temperature that occur over India and how they may change. In order to provide insights into the future comparable against current operational practices, we make use of definitions of "hot days", "heat waves", and "severe heat waves" used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). We compare modelled data (and bias corrected model output where available) against observed daily temperatures from the IMD gridded (1°x1°) dataset available for 1951-2015 as also circulation features that lead to such events by comparing against reanalysis products. We also investigate the timing of such events in the future scenarios

  14. Industrial excess heat for district heating in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bühler, Fabian; Petrovic, Stefan; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard

    2017-01-01

    analyses excess heat sources from the industrial sector and how they could be used for district heating. This method first allocates excess heat to single production units by introducing and validating a new approach. Spatial analysis of the heat sources and consumers are then performed to evaluate...... the potential for using them for district heating. In this way the theoretical potential of using the excess heat for covering the heating demand of buildings is determined. Through the use of industry specific temperature profiles the heat usable directly or via heat pumps is further found. A sensitivity...... analysis investigates the impact of future energy efficiency measures in the industry, buildings and the district heating grid on the national potential. The results show that for the case study of Denmark, 1.36 TWh of district heat could be provided annually with industrial excess heat from thermal...

  15. Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunnabend, S. E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, Michael; Bal, Henri E.; Seinstra, Frank J.; van Werkhoven, Ben; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, Maarten

    2017-01-01

    An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and

  16. Projected changes of extreme weather events in the eastern United States based on a high resolution climate modeling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Y; Fu, J S; Drake, J B; Liu, Y; Lamarque, J-F

    2012-01-01

    This study is the first evaluation of dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model on a 4 km × 4 km high resolution scale in the eastern US driven by the new Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM v1.0). First we examined the global and regional climate model results, and corrected an inconsistency in skin temperature during the downscaling process by modifying the land/sea mask. In comparison with observations, WRF shows statistically significant improvement over CESM in reproducing extreme weather events, with improvement for heat wave frequency estimation as high as 98%. The fossil fuel intensive scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 was used to study a possible future mid-century climate extreme in 2057–9. Both the heat waves and the extreme precipitation in 2057–9 are more severe than the present climate in the Eastern US. The Northeastern US shows large increases in both heat wave intensity (3.05 °C higher) and annual extreme precipitation (107.3 mm more per year). (letter)

  17. How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

    2016-04-01

    The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

  18. Optimization with Extremal Dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boettcher, Stefan; Percus, Allon G.

    2001-01-01

    We explore a new general-purpose heuristic for finding high-quality solutions to hard discrete optimization problems. The method, called extremal optimization, is inspired by self-organized criticality, a concept introduced to describe emergent complexity in physical systems. Extremal optimization successively updates extremely undesirable variables of a single suboptimal solution, assigning them new, random values. Large fluctuations ensue, efficiently exploring many local optima. We use extremal optimization to elucidate the phase transition in the 3-coloring problem, and we provide independent confirmation of previously reported extrapolations for the ground-state energy of ±J spin glasses in d=3 and 4

  19. Long term oscillations in Danish rainfall extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    The frequent flooding of European cities within the last decade has motivated a vast number of studies, among others addressing the non-stationary behaviour of hydrological extremes driven by anthropogenic climate change. However, when considering future extremes it also becomes relevant to search...... for and understand natural variations on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in six 137-years-long diurnal rainfall series from Denmark and southern Sweden, focusing on extremes with a reoccurrence level relevant for Danish drainage design. By means of a Peak...

  20. Heat pipe heat storage performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caruso, A; Pasquetti, R [Univ. de Provence, Marseille (FR). Inst. Universitaire des Systemes; Grakovich, L P; Vasiliev, L L [A.V. Luikov Heat and Mass Transfer Inst. of the BSSR, Academy of Sciences, Minsk (BY)

    1989-01-01

    Heat storage offers essential thermal energy saving for heating. A ground heat store equipped with heat pipes connecting it with a heat source and to the user is considered in this paper. It has been shown that such a heat exchanging system along with a batch energy source meets, to a considerable extent, house heating requirements. (author).

  1. Extremely low temperature properties of epoxy GFRP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadotani, Kenzo; Nagai, Matao; Aki, Fumitake.

    1983-01-01

    The examination of fiber-reinforced plastics, that is, plastics such as epoxy, polyester and polyimide reinforced with high strength fibers such as glass, carbon, boron and steel, for extremely low temperature use began from the fuel tanks of rockets. Therafter, the trial manufacture of superconducting generators and extremely low temperature transformers and the manufacture of superconducting magnets for nuclear fusion experimental setups became active, and high performance FRPs have been adopted, of which the extremely low temperature properties have been sufficiently grasped. Recently, the cryostats made of FRPs have been developed, fully utilizing such features of FRPs as high strength, high rigidity, non-magnetic material, insulation, low heat conductivity, light weight and the freedom of molding. In this paper, the mechanical properties at extremely low temperature of the plastic composite materials used as insulators and structural materials for extremely low temperature superconducting equipment is outlined, and in particular, glass fiber-reinforced epoxy laminates are described somewhat in detail. The fracture strain of GFRP at extremely low temperature is about 1.3 times as large as that at room temperature, but at extremely low temperature, clear cracking occurred at 40% of the fracture strain. The linear thermal contraction of GFRP showed remarkable anisotropy. (Kako, I.)

  2. Spatially explicit modelling of extreme weather and climate events ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The reality of climate change continues to influence the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides. The impacts of the cumulative interplay of these extreme weather and climate events variation continue to perturb governments causing a scramble into formation ...

  3. Industrial excess heat for district heating in Denmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bühler, Fabian; Petrović, Stefan; Karlsson, Kenneth; Elmegaard, Brian

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Method for utilisation potential of industrial excess heat for district heating. •Industrial excess heat from thermal processes is quantified at single production units. •Linking of industrial excess heat sources and district heating demands done in GIS. •Excess heat recovery using direct heat transfer and heat pumps. •5.1% of the Danish district heating demand could be supplied by industrial excess heat. -- Abstract: Excess heat is available from various sources and its utilisation could reduce the primary energy use. The accessibility of this heat is however dependent amongst others on the source and sink temperature, amount and potential users in its vicinity. In this work a new method is developed which analyses excess heat sources from the industrial sector and how they could be used for district heating. This method first allocates excess heat to single production units by introducing and validating a new approach. Spatial analysis of the heat sources and consumers are then performed to evaluate the potential for using them for district heating. In this way the theoretical potential of using the excess heat for covering the heating demand of buildings is determined. Through the use of industry specific temperature profiles the heat usable directly or via heat pumps is further found. A sensitivity analysis investigates the impact of future energy efficiency measures in the industry, buildings and the district heating grid on the national potential. The results show that for the case study of Denmark, 1.36 TWh of district heat could be provided annually with industrial excess heat from thermal processes which equals 5.1% of the current demand. More than half of this heat was found to be usable directly, without the need for a heat pump.

  4. Classifying Returns as Extreme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2014-01-01

    I consider extreme returns for the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries using two classification schemes: One, the univariate classification scheme from the previous literature that classifies extreme returns for each market separately, and two, a novel multivariate classification scheme tha...

  5. Heat transfer

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Heat transfer. Heat conduction in solid slab. Convective heat transfer. Non-linear temperature. variation due to flow. HEAT FLUX AT SURFACE. conduction/diffusion.

  6. Heat Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heat Waves Dangers we face during periods of very high temperatures include: Heat cramps: These are muscular pains and spasms due ... that the body is having trouble with the heat. If a heat wave is predicted or happening… - ...

  7. Heat Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's Heat Island Effect Site provides information on heat islands, their impacts, mitigation strategies, related research, a directory of heat island reduction initiatives in U.S. communities, and EPA's Heat Island Reduction Program.

  8. What is the future potential for imports of combustible municipal waste to countries with extensive district heating hetworks? - A case study of Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pizarro, Amalia Rosa; Münster, Marie; Salvucci, Raffaele

    2015-01-01

    In Europe landfilling is the most widely used method for managing municipal solid waste. By constrart, the northern European waste market is characterized by high capacities from energy recovery plants, mostly incineration in cogeneration facilities. In Denmark, there is an overcapacity of incine...... are described through linking of mathematical models, taking a holistic approach. In the short-term it pays off to import waste, avoiding landfilling; however, in the longer-term, benefits from waste trading will depend on the price of heat markets.......In Europe landfilling is the most widely used method for managing municipal solid waste. By constrart, the northern European waste market is characterized by high capacities from energy recovery plants, mostly incineration in cogeneration facilities. In Denmark, there is an overcapacity...

  9. Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

    2009-04-01

    Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model Reg

  10. Heat Roadmap Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Connolly, David

    2017-01-01

    This paper compares the electricity, heating, and cooling sectors at national level for various European countries. Annual energy demands are compared for all 28 EU countries, while peak hourly demands are compared for four countries that vary significantly. The results indicate that the heat...... demand is currently the largest of the three demand types considered in terms of both annual and peak demands: it is the largest annual demand in 25 of the 28 EU countries, and it represents the largest peak demand in all four countries analysed. Electricity, heating, and cooling demands are all likely...... that the demand for electricity could double compared to today, depending on how these changes occur. Considering the scale of additional electricity required to electrify future heating and cooling demands, heat pumps should be prioritised over electric heating and other alternatives, such as district heating...

  11. Community responses to extreme climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric JIGUET, Lluis BROTONS, Vincent DEVICTOR

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate [Current Zoology 57 (3: 406–413, 2011].

  12. Clinical application of lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT as a method of diagnostic for lower extremity atherosclerotic obliterans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Il Bong; Dong, Kyung Rae [Dept. Radiological Technology, Gwangju Health University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Goo, Eun Hoe [Dept. Radiological Science, Cheongju University, Cheongju (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-11-15

    The purpose of this study was to assess clinical application of lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT as a method of diagnostic for lower extremity atherosclerotic obliterans. From January to July 2016, 30 patients (mean age, 68) were studied with lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT. 128 channel multi-detector row CT scans were acquired with a CT scanner (SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens medical solution, Germany) of lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA. Acquired images were reconstructed with 3D workstation (Leonardo, Siemens, Germany). Site of lower extremity arterial occlusive and stenosis lesions were detected superficial femoral artery 36.6%, popliteal artery 23.4%, external iliac artery 16.7%, common femoral artery 13.3%, peroneal artery 10%. The mean total DLP comparison of lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA, 650 mGy-cm and 675 mGy-cm, respectively. Lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA were realized that were never be two examination that were exactly the same legions. Future through the development of lower extremity perfusion CT soft ware programs suggest possible clinical applications.

  13. Typologies of extreme longevity myths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Robert D; Desjardins, Bertrand; McLaughlin, Kirsten; Poulain, Michel; Perls, Thomas T

    2010-01-01

    Purpose. Political, national, religious, and other motivations have led the media and even scientists to errantly accept extreme longevity claims prima facie. We describe various causes of false claims of extraordinary longevity. Design and Methods. American Social Security Death Index files for the period 1980-2009 were queried for individuals with birth and death dates yielding ages 110+ years of age. Frequency was compared to a list of age-validated supercentenarians maintained by the Gerontology Research Group who died during the same time period. Age claims of 110+ years and the age validation experiences of the authors facilitated a list of typologies of false age claims. Results. Invalid age claim rates increase with age from 65% at age 110-111 to 98% by age 115 to 100% for 120+ years. Eleven typologies of false claims were: Religious Authority Myth, Village Elder Myth, Fountain of Youth Myth (substance), Shangri-La Myth (geographic), Nationalist Pride, Spiritual Practice, Familial Longevity, Individual and/or Family Notoriety, Military Service, Administrative Entry Error, and Pension-Social Entitlement Fraud. Conclusions. Understanding various causes of false extreme age claims is important for placing current, past, and future extreme longevity claims in context and for providing a necessary level of skepticism.

  14. Typologies of Extreme Longevity Myths

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert D. Young

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Political, national, religious, and other motivations have led the media and even scientists to errantly accept extreme longevity claims prima facie. We describe various causes of false claims of extraordinary longevity. Design and Methods. American Social Security Death Index files for the period 1980–2009 were queried for individuals with birth and death dates yielding ages 110+ years of age. Frequency was compared to a list of age-validated supercentenarians maintained by the Gerontology Research Group who died during the same time period. Age claims of 110+ years and the age validation experiences of the authors facilitated a list of typologies of false age claims. Results. Invalid age claim rates increase with age from 65% at age 110-111 to 98% by age 115 to 100% for 120+ years. Eleven typologies of false claims were: Religious Authority Myth, Village Elder Myth, Fountain of Youth Myth (substance, Shangri-La Myth (geographic, Nationalist Pride, Spiritual Practice, Familial Longevity, Individual and/or Family Notoriety, Military Service, Administrative Entry Error, and Pension-Social Entitlement Fraud. Conclusions. Understanding various causes of false extreme age claims is important for placing current, past, and future extreme longevity claims in context and for providing a necessary level of skepticism.

  15. GCMs-based spatiotemporal evolution of climate extremes during the 21st century in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianfeng; Zhang, Qiang; Chen, Yongqin David; Singh, Vijay P.

    2013-10-01

    Changes in the hydrological cycle being caused by human-induced global warming are triggering variations in observed spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes, and hence in droughts and floods across China. Evaluation of future climate extremes based on General Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs will be of great importance in scientific management of water resources and agricultural activities. In this study, five precipitation extreme and five temperature extreme indices are defined. This study analyzes daily precipitation and temperature data for 1960-2005 from 529 stations in China and outputs of GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5). Downscaling methods, based on QQ-plot and transfer functions, are used to downscale GCMs outputs to the site scale. Performances of GCMs in simulating climate extremes were evaluated using the Taylor diagram. Results showed that: (1) the multimodel CMIP5 ensemble performs the best in simulating observed extreme conditions; (2) precipitation processes are intensifying with increased frequency and intensity across entire China. The southwest China, however, is dominated by lengthening maximum consecutive dry days and also more heavy precipitation extremes; (3) warming processes continue with increasing warm nights, decreasing frost days, and lengthening heat waves during the 21st century; (4) changes in precipitation and temperature extremes exhibit larger changing magnitudes under RCP85 scenario; (5) for the evolution of changes in extremes, in most cases, the spatial pattern keeps the same, even though changing rates vary. In some cases, area with specific changing properties extends or shrinks gradually. The directions of trends may alter during the evolution; and (6) changes under RCP85 become more and more pronounced as time elapses. Under the peak-and-decline RCP26, changes in some cases do not decrease correspondingly during 2070-2099 even though the

  16. A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

    2015-12-18

    In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

  17. Methodological developments and qualification of calculation schemes for the modelling of photonic heating in the experimental devices of the future Jules Horowitz material testing reactor (RJH); Developpements methodologiques et qualification de schemas de calcul pour la modelisation des echauffements photoniques dans les dispositifs experimentaux du futur reacteur d'irradiation technologiques Jules Horowitz (RJH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanchet, D

    2006-07-01

    The objective of this work is to develop the modelling of the nuclear heating of the experimental devices of the future Jules Horowitz material testing reactor (RJH). The strong specific nuclear power produced (460 kW/l), induces so intense photonic fluxes which cause heating and large temperature gradients that it is necessary to control it by an adequate design. However, calculations of heating are penalized by the very large uncertainties estimated at a value of about 30% (2*{sigma}) coming from the gaps and uncertainties of the data of gamma emission present in the libraries of basic nuclear data. The experimental program ADAPh aims at reducing these uncertainties. Measurements by thermoluminescent detectors (TLD) and ionisation chambers are carried out in the critical assemblies EOLE (Mox) and Minerve (UO{sub 2}). The rigorous interpretation of these measurements requires specific developments based on Monte-Carlo simulations of coupled neutron-gamma and gamma-electron transport. The developments carried out are made different in particular by the modelling of cavities phenomena and delayed gamma emissions by the decay of fission products. The comparisons calculation-measurement made it possible to identify a systematic bias confirming a tendency of calculations to underestimate measurements. A Bayesian method of adjustment was developed in order to re-estimate the principal components of the gamma heating and to transpose the results obtained to the devices of the RJH, under conditions clearly and definitely representative. This work made possible to reduce significantly the uncertainties on the determination of the gamma heating from 30 to 15 per cent. (author)

  18. Methodological developments and qualification of calculation schemes for the modelling of photonic heating in the experimental devices of the future Jules Horowitz material testing reactor (RJH); Developpements methodologiques et qualification de schemas de calcul pour la modelisation des echauffements photoniques dans les dispositifs experimentaux du futur reacteur d'irradiation technologiques Jules Horowitz (RJH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanchet, D

    2006-07-01

    The objective of this work is to develop the modelling of the nuclear heating of the experimental devices of the future Jules Horowitz material testing reactor (RJH). The strong specific nuclear power produced (460 kW/l), induces so intense photonic fluxes which cause heating and large temperature gradients that it is necessary to control it by an adequate design. However, calculations of heating are penalized by the very large uncertainties estimated at a value of about 30% (2*{sigma}) coming from the gaps and uncertainties of the data of gamma emission present in the libraries of basic nuclear data. The experimental program ADAPh aims at reducing these uncertainties. Measurements by thermoluminescent detectors (TLD) and ionisation chambers are carried out in the critical assemblies EOLE (Mox) and Minerve (UO{sub 2}). The rigorous interpretation of these measurements requires specific developments based on Monte-Carlo simulations of coupled neutron-gamma and gamma-electron transport. The developments carried out are made different in particular by the modelling of cavities phenomena and delayed gamma emissions by the decay of fission products. The comparisons calculation-measurement made it possible to identify a systematic bias confirming a tendency of calculations to underestimate measurements. A Bayesian method of adjustment was developed in order to re-estimate the principal components of the gamma heating and to transpose the results obtained to the devices of the RJH, under conditions clearly and definitely representative. This work made possible to reduce significantly the uncertainties on the determination of the gamma heating from 30 to 15 per cent. (author)

  19. Extremal surface barriers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelhardt, Netta; Wall, Aron C.

    2014-01-01

    We present a generic condition for Lorentzian manifolds to have a barrier that limits the reach of boundary-anchored extremal surfaces of arbitrary dimension. We show that any surface with nonpositive extrinsic curvature is a barrier, in the sense that extremal surfaces cannot be continuously deformed past it. Furthermore, the outermost barrier surface has nonnegative extrinsic curvature. Under certain conditions, we show that the existence of trapped surfaces implies a barrier, and conversely. In the context of AdS/CFT, these barriers imply that it is impossible to reconstruct the entire bulk using extremal surfaces. We comment on the implications for the firewall controversy

  20. Shocking matter to extreme conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Y.M.; Sharma, S.M.

    1997-01-01

    A good understanding of the thermodynamic response of matter at high compression and high energy densities is important to several areas of physics. Shock-wave experiments are uniquely suited for obtaining data at extreme conditions, and a shock-compressed matter can be viewed as a condensed system with or without dissociation or as a strongly coupled plasma. This article reviews work by Da Silva et al. in which irradiances ranging from 5x10 superscript 12 to 2x10 superscript 14 W/cm 2 were used to generate 8- to 10-ns square pulses in liquid deuterium. The authors demonstrated negligible pre-heating of the sample, steady propagation of the shock wave, and direct determination of the shock wave velocity along with particle velocity and density in the shocked state. Da Silva et al. results are compared with models and other experimental information, and the usefulness of the data in other areas is assessed. 11 refs., 1 fig

  1. Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, Adam; Camargo, Suzana; Debucquoy, Wim; Deodatis, George; Gerrard, Michael; Hall, Timothy; Hallman, Robert; Keenan, Jesse; Lall, Upmanu; Levy, Marc; hide

    2016-01-01

    Extreme events are the aspects of climate to which human society is most sensitive. Due to both their severity and their rarity, extreme events can challenge the capacity of physical, social, economic and political infrastructures, turning natural events into human disasters. Yet, because they are low frequency events, the science of extreme events is very challenging. Among the challenges is the difficulty of connecting extreme events to longer-term, large-scale variability and trends in the climate system, including anthropogenic climate change. How can we best quantify the risks posed by extreme weather events, both in the current climate and in the warmer and different climates to come? How can we better predict them? What can we do to reduce the harm done by such events? In response to these questions, the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate has been created at Columbia University in New York City (extreme weather.columbia.edu). This Initiative is a University-wide activity focused on understanding the risks to human life, property, infrastructure, communities, institutions, ecosystems, and landscapes from extreme weather events, both in the present and future climates, and on developing solutions to mitigate those risks. In May 2015,the Initiative held its first science workshop, entitled Extreme Weather and Climate: Hazards, Impacts, Actions. The purpose of the workshop was to define the scope of the Initiative and tremendously broad intellectual footprint of the topic indicated by the titles of the presentations (see Table 1). The intent of the workshop was to stimulate thought across disciplinary lines by juxtaposing talks whose subjects differed dramatically. Each session concluded with question and answer panel sessions. Approximately, 150 people were in attendance throughout the day. Below is a brief synopsis of each presentation. The synopses collectively reflect the variety and richness of the emerging extreme event research agenda.

  2. Statistics of Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Davison, Anthony C.; Huser, Raphaë l

    2015-01-01

    Statistics of extremes concerns inference for rare events. Often the events have never yet been observed, and their probabilities must therefore be estimated by extrapolation of tail models fitted to available data. Because data concerning the event

  3. Acute lower extremity ischaemia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Acute lower extremity ischaemia. Acute lower limb ischaemia is a surgical emergency. ... is ~1.5 cases per 10 000 persons per year. Acute ischaemia ... Table 2. Clinical features discriminating embolic from thrombotic ALEXI. Clinical features.

  4. Heat exchangers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidt, E L; Eisenmann, G; Hahne, E [Stuttgart Univ. (TH) (F.R. Germany). Inst. fuer Thermodynamik und Waermetechnik

    1976-04-01

    A survey is presented on publications on design, heat transfer, form factors, free convection, evaporation processes, cooling towers, condensation, annular gap, cross-flowed cylinders, axial flow through a bundle of tubes, roughnesses, convective heat transfer, loss of pressure, radiative heat transfer, finned surfaces, spiral heat exchangers, curved pipes, regeneraters, heat pipes, heat carriers, scaling, heat recovery systems, materials selection, strength calculation, control, instabilities, automation of circuits, operational problems and optimization.

  5. Causes of Glacier Melt Extremes in the Alps Since 1949

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thibert, E.; Dkengne Sielenou, P.; Vionnet, V.; Eckert, N.; Vincent, C.

    2018-01-01

    Recent record-breaking glacier melt values are attributable to peculiar extreme events and long-term warming trends that shift averages upward. Analyzing one of the world's longest mass balance series with extreme value statistics, we show that detrending melt anomalies makes it possible to disentangle these effects, leading to a fairer evaluation of the return period of melt extreme values such as 2003, and to characterize them by a more realistic bounded behavior. Using surface energy balance simulations, we show that three independent drivers control melt: global radiation, latent heat, and the amount of snow at the beginning of the melting season. Extremes are governed by large deviations in global radiation combined with sensible heat. Long-term trends are driven by the lengthening of melt duration due to earlier and longer-lasting melting of ice along with melt intensification caused by trends in long-wave irradiance and latent heat due to higher air moisture.

  6. Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

    2015-12-01

    The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on

  7. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  8. Global patterns of NDVI-indicated vegetation extremes and their sensitivity to climate extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Guo; Liu Hongyan; Yin Yi

    2013-01-01

    Extremes in climate have significant impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase under future climate change. Extremes in vegetation could capture such impacts and indicate the vulnerability of ecosystems, but currently have not received a global long-term assessment. In this study, a robust method has been developed to detect significant extremes (low values) in biweekly time series of global normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2006 and thus to acquire a global pattern of vegetation extreme frequency. This pattern coincides with vegetation vulnerability patterns suggested by earlier studies using different methods over different time spans, indicating a consistent mechanism of regulation. Vegetation extremes were found to aggregate in Amazonia and in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions in low and middle latitudes, while they seldom occurred in high latitudes. Among the environmental variables studied, extreme low precipitation has the highest slope against extreme vegetation. For the eight biomes analyzed, these slopes are highest in temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland, suggesting a higher sensitivity in these environments. The results presented here contradict the hypothesis that vegetation in water-limited semi-arid and semi-humid regions might be adapted to drought and suggest that vegetation in these regions (especially temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland) is highly prone to vegetation extreme events under more severe precipitation extremes. It is also suggested here that more attention be paid to precipitation-induced vegetation changes than to temperature-induced events. (letter)

  9. Development of an Extreme Environment Materials Research Facility at Princeton

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, A.B.; Gentile, C.A.; Tully, C.G.; Austin, R.; Calaprice, F.; McDonald, K.; Ascione, G.; Baker, G.; Davidson, R.; Dudek, L.; Grisham, L.; Kugel, H.; Pagdon, K.; Stevenson, T.; Woolley, R.; Zwicker, A.

    2010-01-01

    The need for a fundamental understanding of material response to a neutron and/or high heat flux environment can yield development of improved materials and operations with existing materials. Such understanding has numerous applications in fields such as nuclear power (for the current fleet and future fission and fusion reactors), aerospace, and other research fields (e.g., high-intensity proton accelerator facilities for high energy physics research). A proposal has been advanced to develop a facility for testing various materials under extreme heat and neutron exposure conditions at Princeton. The Extreme Environment Materials Research Facility comprises an environmentally controlled chamber (48 m 3 ) capable of high vacuum conditions, with extreme flux beams and probe beams accessing a central, large volume target. The facility will have the capability to expose large surface areas (1 m 2 ) to 14 MeV neutrons at a fluence in excess of 10 13 n/s. Depending on the operating mode. Additionally beam line power on the order of 15-75 MW/m 2 for durations of 1-15 seconds are planned. The multi-second duration of exposure can be repeated every 2-10 minutes for periods of 10-12 hours. The facility will be housed in the test cell that held the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR), which has the desired radiation and safety controls as well as the necessary loading and assembly infrastructure. The facility will allow testing of various materials to their physical limit of thermal endurance and allow for exploring the interplay between radiation-induced embrittlement, swelling and deformation of materials, and the fatigue and fracturing that occur in response to thermal shocks. The combination of high neutron energies and intense fluences will enable accelerated time scale studies. The results will make contributions for refining predictive failure modes (modeling) in extreme environments, as well as providing a technical platform for the development of new alloys, new

  10. Epidemiology of extremity fractures in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beerekamp, M. S. H.; de Muinck Keizer, R. J. O.; Schep, N. W. L.; Ubbink, D. T.; Panneman, M. J. M.; Goslings, J. C.

    2017-01-01

    Insight in epidemiologic data of extremity fractures is relevant to identify people at risk. By analyzing age- and gender specific fracture incidence and treatment patterns we may adjust future policy, take preventive measures and optimize health care management. Current epidemiologic data on

  11. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chang (Ching-Chung)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  12. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Chu (LanFen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-H. Chang (Chu-Hsiang)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  13. Climatic forecast: down-scaling and extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deque, M.; Li, L.

    2007-01-01

    There is a strong demand for specifying the future climate at local scale and about extreme events. New methods, allowing a better output from the climate models, are currently being developed and French laboratories involved in the Escrime project are actively participating. (authors)

  14. Using waste oil to heat a greenhouse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marla Schwartz

    2009-01-01

    During the winter of 1990, Northwoods Nursery (Elk River, ID) purchased a wood-burning system to heat the current greenhouses. This system burned slabs of wood to heat water that was then pumped into the greenhouses. The winter of 1990 was extremely harsh, requiring non-stop operation of the heating system. In order to keep seedlings in the greenhouse from freezing,...

  15. Inventory of future power and heat production technologies. Partial report Small-scale technology; Inventering av framtidens el- och vaermeproduktionstekniker. Delrapport Smaaskalig teknik

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ridell, Bengt (Grontmij AB (Sweden))

    2008-12-15

    The following techniques for small-scale production have been selected to be studied more carefully, Fuel cells, Photovoltaics, Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC), and Wave power. Of the four selected technologies, fuel cells, solar cells, ORC are appropriate for use in so-called distributed generation, to be used close to a consumer, and possibly also for the production of electricity. Wave power is more like the wind in nature and is probably better suited to be used by power companies for direct input to the transmission grid. None of these technologies are now competitive against buying electricity from the Swedish grid. However, there are opportunities for all to reduce production costs so that they can become competitive alternatives in the future, depending largely on the general development of electricity prices, taxes, delivery reliability, etc. The four different technologies have different development stages and requirements that affect their possibility for a commercial breakthrough. These technologies will probably not all get a breakthrough in Sweden. Small-scale technologies will in the time period up to 2030 not be able to compete with the large-scale technologies that exist in today's power grid. In the longer term the situation may be different. The power system might be reduced in importance if the small scale technologies become cheap, reliable and easy to use. Electricity can then be produced locally, directly related to user needs

  16. Extreme Programming: Maestro Style

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Jeffrey; Fox, Jason; Rabe, Kenneth; Shu, I-Hsiang; Powell, Mark

    2009-01-01

    "Extreme Programming: Maestro Style" is the name of a computer programming methodology that has evolved as a custom version of a methodology, called extreme programming that has been practiced in the software industry since the late 1990s. The name of this version reflects its origin in the work of the Maestro team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory that develops software for Mars exploration missions. Extreme programming is oriented toward agile development of software resting on values of simplicity, communication, testing, and aggressiveness. Extreme programming involves use of methods of rapidly building and disseminating institutional knowledge among members of a computer-programming team to give all the members a shared view that matches the view of the customers for whom the software system is to be developed. Extreme programming includes frequent planning by programmers in collaboration with customers, continually examining and rewriting code in striving for the simplest workable software designs, a system metaphor (basically, an abstraction of the system that provides easy-to-remember software-naming conventions and insight into the architecture of the system), programmers working in pairs, adherence to a set of coding standards, collaboration of customers and programmers, frequent verbal communication, frequent releases of software in small increments of development, repeated testing of the developmental software by both programmers and customers, and continuous interaction between the team and the customers. The environment in which the Maestro team works requires the team to quickly adapt to changing needs of its customers. In addition, the team cannot afford to accept unnecessary development risk. Extreme programming enables the Maestro team to remain agile and provide high-quality software and service to its customers. However, several factors in the Maestro environment have made it necessary to modify some of the conventional extreme

  17. Urban district heating using nuclear heat - a survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beresovski, T.; Oliker, I.

    1979-01-01

    The use of heat from nuclear power plants is of great interest in connection with projected future expansions of large urban district heating systems. Oil price escalation and air pollution from increased burning of fossil fuels are substantial incentivers for the adoption of nuclear heat and power plants. The cost of the hot water piping system from the nuclear plant to the city is a major factor in determining the feasibility of using nuclear heat. To achieve reasonable costs, the heat load should be at least 1500 MW(th), transport temperatures 125-200 0 C and distances preferably 50 km or less. Heat may be extracted from the turbines of conventional power reactors. Alternatively, some special-purpose smaller reactors are under development which are specially suited to production of heat with little or no power coproduct. Many countries are conducting studies of future expansions of district heating systems to use nuclear heat. Several countries are developing technology suitable for this application. Actual experience with the use of nuclear heat for district heating is currently being gained only in the USSR, however. While district heating appears to be a desirable technology at a time of increasing fossil-fuel costs, the use of nuclear heat will require siting of nuclear plants within transmission radius of cities. The institutional barries toward use of nuclear heating will have to be overcome before the energy conservation potential of this approach can be realized on a significant scale. (author)

  18. Tales of future weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazeleger, W.; Van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Min, E.; Van Oldenborgh, G.J.; Petersen, A.C.; Stainforth, D.A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L.A.

    2015-01-01

    Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The

  19. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

    2015-02-20

    Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

  20. Early and late hot extremes, and elongation of the warm period over Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Founda, Dimitra; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Pierros, Fragiskos

    2017-04-01

    The eastern Mediterranean has been assigned as one of the most responsive areas in climate change, mainly with respect to the occurrence of warmer and drier conditions. In Greece in particular, observations suggest prominent increases in the summer air temperature which in some areas amount to approximately 1 0C/decade since the mid 1970s, while Regional Climate Models simulate further increases in the near and distant future. These changes are coupled with simultaneous increase in the occurrence of hot extremes. In addition to changes in the frequency and intensity of hot extrems, timing of occurrence is also of special interest. Early heat waves in particular, have been found to increase thermal risk in humans. The study explores variations and trends in timing, namely the date of first and last occurrence of hot extremes within the year, and subsequently the hot extremes period (season), defined as the time interval (number of days) between first and last hot extremes occurrence, over Greece. A case study for the area of Athens covering a longer than 100-years period (1897-2015) was conducted first, which will be extended to other Greek areas. Several heat related climatic indices were used, based either on predefined temperature thresholds such as 'tropical days' (daily maximum air temperature, Tmax >30 0C), 'tropical nights' (daily minimum air temperature, Tmin >20 0C), 'hot days' (Tmax >35 0C), or on local climate statistics such as days with Tmax (or Tmin) > 95th percentile. The analysis revealed significant changes in the period of hot extremes and specifically elongation of the period, attributed to early rather than late hot extremes occurrence. An earlier shift of the first tropical day and the first tropical night occurrence by approximately 2 days/decade was found over the study period. An overall elongation of the 'hot days' season by 2.6 days/decade was also observed, which is more prominent since the early 1980s. Over the last three decades, earlier

  1. Extreme meteorological conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altinger de Schwarzkopf, M.L.

    1983-01-01

    Different meteorological variables which may reach significant extreme values, such as the windspeed and, in particular, its occurrence through tornadoes and hurricanes that necesarily incide and wich must be taken into account at the time of nuclear power plants' installation, are analyzed. For this kind of study, it is necessary to determine the basic phenomenum of design. Two criteria are applied to define the basic values of design for extreme meteorological variables. The first one determines the expected extreme value: it is obtained from analyzing the recurence of the phenomenum in a convened period of time, wich may be generally of 50 years. The second one determines the extreme value of low probability, taking into account the nuclear power plant's operating life -f.ex. 25 years- and considering, during said lapse, the occurrence probabilities of extreme meteorological phenomena. The values may be determined either by the deterministic method, which is based on the acknowledgement of the fundamental physical characteristics of the phenomena or by the probabilistic method, that aims to the analysis of historical statistical data. Brief comments are made on the subject in relation to the Argentine Republic area. (R.J.S.) [es

  2. Lunar Base Heat Pump

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, D.; Fischbach, D.; Tetreault, R.

    1996-01-01

    The objective of this project was to investigate the feasibility of constructing a heat pump suitable for use as a heat rejection device in applications such as a lunar base. In this situation, direct heat rejection through the use of radiators is not possible at a temperature suitable for lde support systems. Initial analysis of a heat pump of this type called for a temperature lift of approximately 378 deg. K, which is considerably higher than is commonly called for in HVAC and refrigeration applications where heat pumps are most often employed. Also because of the variation of the rejection temperature (from 100 to 381 deg. K), extreme flexibility in the configuration and operation of the heat pump is required. A three-stage compression cycle using a refrigerant such as CFC-11 or HCFC-123 was formulated with operation possible with one, two or three stages of compression. Also, to meet the redundancy requirements, compression was divided up over multiple compressors in each stage. A control scheme was devised that allowed these multiple compressors to be operated as required so that the heat pump could perform with variable heat loads and rejection conditions. A prototype heat pump was designed and constructed to investigate the key elements of the high-lift heat pump concept. Control software was written and implemented in the prototype to allow fully automatic operation. The heat pump was capable of operation over a wide range of rejection temperatures and cooling loads, while maintaining cooling water temperature well within the required specification of 40 deg. C +/- 1.7 deg. C. This performance was verified through testing.

  3. Extremely deformable structures

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Recently, a new research stimulus has derived from the observation that soft structures, such as biological systems, but also rubber and gel, may work in a post critical regime, where elastic elements are subject to extreme deformations, though still exhibiting excellent mechanical performances. This is the realm of ‘extreme mechanics’, to which this book is addressed. The possibility of exploiting highly deformable structures opens new and unexpected technological possibilities. In particular, the challenge is the design of deformable and bi-stable mechanisms which can reach superior mechanical performances and can have a strong impact on several high-tech applications, including stretchable electronics, nanotube serpentines, deployable structures for aerospace engineering, cable deployment in the ocean, but also sensors and flexible actuators and vibration absorbers. Readers are introduced to a variety of interrelated topics involving the mechanics of extremely deformable structures, with emphasis on ...

  4. Statistics of Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Davison, Anthony C.

    2015-04-10

    Statistics of extremes concerns inference for rare events. Often the events have never yet been observed, and their probabilities must therefore be estimated by extrapolation of tail models fitted to available data. Because data concerning the event of interest may be very limited, efficient methods of inference play an important role. This article reviews this domain, emphasizing current research topics. We first sketch the classical theory of extremes for maxima and threshold exceedances of stationary series. We then review multivariate theory, distinguishing asymptotic independence and dependence models, followed by a description of models for spatial and spatiotemporal extreme events. Finally, we discuss inference and describe two applications. Animations illustrate some of the main ideas. © 2015 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  5. Urban Heat Wave Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Jedlovec, G.; Crane, D. L.; Meyer, P. J.; LaFontaine, F.

    2016-12-01

    Heat waves are one of the largest causes of environmentally-related deaths globally and are likely to become more numerous as a result of climate change. The intensification of heat waves by the urban heat island effect and elevated humidity, combined with urban demographics, are key elements leading to these disasters. Better warning of the potential hazards may help lower risks associated with heat waves. Moderate resolution thermal data from NASA satellites is used to derive high spatial resolution estimates of apparent temperature (heat index) over urban regions. These data, combined with demographic data, are used to produce a daily heat hazard/risk map for selected cities. MODIS data are used to derive daily composite maximum and minimum land surface temperature (LST) fields to represent the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle and identify extreme heat days. Compositing routines are used to generate representative daily maximum and minimum LSTs for the urban environment. The limited effect of relative humidity on the apparent temperature (typically 10-15%) allows for the use of modeled moisture fields to convert LST to apparent temperature without loss of spatial variability. The daily max/min apparent temperature fields are used to identify abnormally extreme heat days relative to climatological values in order to produce a heat wave hazard map. Reference to climatological values normalizes the hazard for a particular region (e.g., the impact of an extreme heat day). A heat wave hazard map has been produced for several case study periods and then computed on a quasi-operational basis during the summer of 2016 for Atlanta, GA, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, and Huntsville, AL. A hazard does not become a risk until someone or something is exposed to that hazard at a level that might do harm. Demographic information is used to assess the urban risk associated with the heat wave hazard. Collectively, the heat wave hazard product can warn people in urban

  6. Adventure and Extreme Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Andrew Thomas; Rao, Ashwin

    2016-03-01

    Adventure and extreme sports often involve unpredictable and inhospitable environments, high velocities, and stunts. These activities vary widely and include sports like BASE jumping, snowboarding, kayaking, and surfing. Increasing interest and participation in adventure and extreme sports warrants understanding by clinicians to facilitate prevention, identification, and treatment of injuries unique to each sport. This article covers alpine skiing and snowboarding, skateboarding, surfing, bungee jumping, BASE jumping, and whitewater sports with emphasis on epidemiology, demographics, general injury mechanisms, specific injuries, chronic injuries, fatality data, and prevention. Overall, most injuries are related to overuse, trauma, and environmental or microbial exposure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Extremal graph theory

    CERN Document Server

    Bollobas, Bela

    2004-01-01

    The ever-expanding field of extremal graph theory encompasses a diverse array of problem-solving methods, including applications to economics, computer science, and optimization theory. This volume, based on a series of lectures delivered to graduate students at the University of Cambridge, presents a concise yet comprehensive treatment of extremal graph theory.Unlike most graph theory treatises, this text features complete proofs for almost all of its results. Further insights into theory are provided by the numerous exercises of varying degrees of difficulty that accompany each chapter. A

  8. Feeling the heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-05-01

    Drought and heatwaves are inextricably linked, and have devastating socio-economic and environmental impacts. This issue features a suite of articles outlining how these extreme events may increase in magnitude and frequency with anthropogenic warming, highlighting the increased need to mitigate and adapt to future conditions.

  9. Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional impact models

    OpenAIRE

    Jahn, Malte

    2015-01-01

    Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational) economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in th...

  10. Acclimation responses to temperature vary with vertical stratification: implications for vulnerability of soil-dwelling species to extreme temperature events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dooremalen, Coby; Berg, Matty P; Ellers, Jacintha

    2013-03-01

    The occurrence of summer heat waves is predicted to increase in amplitude and frequency in the near future, but the consequences of such extreme events are largely unknown, especially for belowground organisms. Soil organisms usually exhibit strong vertical stratification, resulting in more frequent exposure to extreme temperatures for surface-dwelling species than for soil-dwelling species. Therefore soil-dwelling species are expected to have poor acclimation responses to cope with temperature changes. We used five species of surface-dwelling and four species of soil-dwelling Collembola that habituate different depths in the soil. We tested for differences in tolerance to extreme temperatures after acclimation to warm and cold conditions. We also tested for differences in acclimation of the underlying physiology by looking at changes in membrane lipid composition. Chill coma recovery time, heat knockdown time and fatty acid profiles were determined after 1 week of acclimation to either 5 or 20 °C. Our results showed that surface-dwelling Collembola better maintained increased heat tolerance across acclimation temperatures, but no such response was found for cold tolerance. Concordantly, four of the five surface-dwelling Collembola showed up to fourfold changes in relative abundance of fatty acids after 1 week of acclimation, whereas none of the soil-dwelling species showed a significant adjustment in fatty acid composition. Strong physiological responses to temperature fluctuations may have become redundant in soil-dwelling species due to the relative thermal stability of their subterranean habitat. Based on the results of the four species studied, we expect that unless soil-dwelling species can temporarily retreat to avoid extreme temperatures, the predicted increase in heat waves under climatic change renders these soil-dwelling species more vulnerable to extinction than species with better physiological capabilities. Being able to act under a larger thermal

  11. PLASMA SLOSHING IN PULSE-HEATED SOLAR AND STELLAR CORONAL LOOPS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reale, F., E-mail: fabio.reale@unipa.it [Dipartimento di Fisica and Chimica, Università di Palermo, Piazza del Parlamento 1, I-90134 Palermo (Italy)

    2016-08-01

    There is evidence that coronal heating is highly intermittent, and flares are the high energy extreme. The properties of the heat pulses are difficult to constrain. Here, hydrodynamic loop modeling shows that several large amplitude oscillations (∼20% in density) are triggered in flare light curves if the duration of the heat pulse is shorter than the sound crossing time of the flaring loop. The reason for this is that the plasma does not have enough time to reach pressure equilibrium during heating, and traveling pressure fronts develop. The period is a few minutes for typical solar coronal loops, dictated by the sound crossing time in the decay phase. The long period and large amplitude make these oscillations different from typical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves. This diagnostic can be applied both to observations of solar and stellar flares and to future observations of non-flaring loops at high resolution.

  12. Evaluation of climate change impact on extreme hydrological event ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Changes in hydrological extremes will have implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on extreme hydrological events in the Akaki River catchment area in and around Addis Ababa city.

  13. Mapping of potential heat sources for heat pumps for district heating in Denmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, Rasmus; Persson, Urban

    2016-01-01

    The ambitious policy in Denmark on having a 100% renewable energy supply in 2050 requires radical changes to the energy systems to avoid an extensive and unsustainable use of biomass resources. Currently, wind power is being expanded and the increasing supply of electricity is slowly pushing the CHP (combined heat and power) plants out of operation, reducing the energy efficiency of the DH (district heating) supply. Here, large heat pumps for district heating is a frequently mentioned solution as a flexible demand for electricity and an energy efficient heat producer. The idea is to make heat pump use a low temperature waste or ambient heat source, but it has so far been very unclear which heat sources are actually available for this purpose. In this study eight categories of heat sources are analysed for the case of Denmark and included in a detailed spatial analysis where the identified heat sources are put in relation to the district heating areas and the corresponding demands. The analysis shows that potential heat sources are present near almost all district heating areas and that sea water most likely will have to play a substantial role as a heat source in future energy systems in Denmark. - Highlights: • The availability of heat sources for heat pumps in Denmark are mapped and quantified. • A novel methodology for assessment of low temperature industrial excess heat is presented. • There are heat sources available for 99% of district heating networks in Denmark. • The concentration of heat sources is generally bigger around bigger cities than smaller. • Ambient temperature heat sources will be more needed in district heating of big cities.

  14. Stellar extreme ultraviolet astronomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cash, W.C. Jr.

    1978-01-01

    The design, calibration, and launch of a rocket-borne imaging telescope for extreme ultraviolet astronomy are described. The telescope, which employed diamond-turned grazing incidence optics and a ranicon detector, was launched November 19, 1976, from the White Sands Missile Range. The telescope performed well and returned data on several potential stellar sources of extreme ultraviolet radiation. Upper limits ten to twenty times more sensitive than previously available were obtained for the extreme ultraviolet flux from the white dwarf Sirius B. These limits fall a factor of seven below the flux predicted for the star and demonstrate that the temperature of Sirius B is not 32,000 K as previously measured, but is below 30,000 K. The new upper limits also rule out the photosphere of the white dwarf as the source of the recently reported soft x-rays from Sirius. Two other white dwarf stars, Feige 24 and G191-B2B, were observed. Upper limits on the flux at 300 A were interpreted as lower limits on the interstellar hydrogen column densities to these stars. The lower limits indicate interstellar hydrogen densitites of greater than .02 cm -3 . Four nearby stars (Sirius, Procyon, Capella, and Mirzam) were observed in a search for intense low temperature coronae or extended chromospheres. No extreme ultraviolet radiation from these stars was detected, and upper limits to their coronal emisson measures are derived

  15. Extremity x-ray

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003461.htm Extremity x-ray To use the sharing features on this page, ... in the body Risks There is low-level radiation exposure. X-rays are monitored and regulated to provide the ...

  16. Extremity perfusion for sarcoma

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Harald Joan

    2008-01-01

    For more than 50 years, the technique of extremity perfusion has been explored in the limb salvage treatment of local, recurrent, and multifocal sarcomas. The "discovery" of tumor necrosis factor-or. in combination with melphalan was a real breakthrough in the treatment of primarily irresectable

  17. Statistics of Local Extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Bierbooms, W.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

    2003-01-01

    . A theoretical expression for the probability density function associated with local extremes of a stochasticprocess is presented. The expression is basically based on the lower four statistical moments and a bandwidth parameter. The theoretical expression is subsequently verified by comparison with simulated...

  18. Automated Precision Maneuvering and Landing in Extreme and Constrained Environments

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Autonomous, precise maneuvering and landing in extreme and constrained environments is a key enabler for future NASA missions. Missions to map the interior of a...

  19. Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingcai Li

    Full Text Available Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382. The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

  20. Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

    2015-01-01

    Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

  1. Heat pumps

    CERN Document Server

    Macmichael, DBA

    1988-01-01

    A fully revised and extended account of the design, manufacture and use of heat pumps in both industrial and domestic applications. Topics covered include a detailed description of the various heat pump cycles, the components of a heat pump system - drive, compressor, heat exchangers etc., and the more practical considerations to be taken into account in their selection.

  2. Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng

    2018-05-01

    This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

  3. The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ippoliti, Daniela; Michelozzi, Paola; Marino, Claudia; de'Donato, Francesca; Menne, Bettina; Katsouyanni, Klea; Kirchmayer, Ursula; Analitis, Antonis; Medina-Ramón, Mercedes; Paldy, Anna; Atkinson, Richard; Kovats, Sari; Bisanti, Luigi; Schneider, Alexandra; Lefranc, Agnès; Iñiguez, Carmen; Perucci, Carlo A

    2010-07-16

    The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity. Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated. The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions. Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

  4. The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bisanti Luigi

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity. Methods Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated. Results The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality than in North Continental (+ 12.4% cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions. Conclusions Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

  5. Tidally Heated Terrestrial Exoplanets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henning, Wade Garrett

    This work models the surface and internal temperatures for hypothetical terrestrial planets in situations involving extreme tidal heating. The feasibility of such planets is evaluated in terms of the orbital perturbations that may give rise to them, their required proximity to a hoststar, and the potential for the input tidal heating to cause significant partial melting of the mantle. Trapping terrestrial planets into 2:1 resonances with migrating Hot Jupiters is considered as a reasonable way for Earth-like worlds to both maintain high eccentricities and to move to short enough orbital periods (1-20 days) for extreme tidal heating to occur. Secular resonance and secular orbital perturbations may support moderate tidal heating at a low equilibrium eccentricity. At orbital periods below 10-30 days, with eccentricities from 0.01 to 0.1, tidal heat may greatly exceed radiogenic heat production. It is unlikely to exceed insolation, except when orbiting very low luminosity hosts, and thus will have limited surface temperature expression. Observations of such bodies many not be able to detect tidal surface enhancements given a few percent uncertainty in albedo, except on the nightside of spin synchronous airless objects. Otherwise detection may occur via spectral detection of hotspots or high volcanic gas concentrations including sulfur dioxide and hydrogen sulfide. The most extreme cases may be able to produce magma oceans, or magma slush mantles with up to 40-60% melt fractions. Tides may alter the habitable zones for smaller red dwarf stars, but are generally detrimental. Multiple viscoelastic models, including the Maxwell, Voigt-Kelvin, Standard Anelastic Solid, and Burgers rheologies are explored and applied to objects such as Io and the super-Earth planet GJ 876d. The complex valued Love number for the Burgers rheology is derived and found to be a useful improvement when modeling the low temperature behavior of tidal bodies, particularly during low eccentricity

  6. Overview of the biology of extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutschick, V. P.; Bassirirad, H.

    2008-12-01

    Extreme events have, variously, meteorological origins as in heat waves or precipitation extremes, or biological origins as in pest and disease eruptions (or tectonic, earth-orbital, or impact-body origins). Despite growing recognition that these events are changing in frequency and intensity, a universal model of ecological responses to these events is slow to emerge. Extreme events, negative and positive, contrast with normal events in terms of their effects on the physiology, ecology, and evolution of organisms, hence also on water, carbon, and nutrient cycles. They structure biogeographic ranges and biomes, almost surely more than mean values often used to define biogeography. They are challenging to study for obvious reasons of field-readiness but also because they are defined by sequences of driving variables such as temperature, not point events. As sequences, their statistics (return times, for example) are challenging to develop, as also from the involvement of multiple environmental variables. These statistics are not captured well by climate models. They are expected to change with climate and land-use change but our predictive capacity is currently limited. A number of tools for description and analysis of extreme events are available, if not widely applied to date. Extremes for organisms are defined by their fitness effects on those organisms, and are specific to genotypes, making them major agents of natural selection. There is evidence that effects of extreme events may be concentrated in an extended recovery phase. We review selected events covering ranges of time and magnitude, from Snowball Earth to leaf functional loss in weather events. A number of events, such as the 2003 European heat wave, evidence effects on water and carbon cycles over large regions. Rising CO2 is the recent extreme of note, for its climatic effects and consequences for growing seasons, transpiration, etc., but also directly in its action as a substrate of photosynthesis

  7. Forest response to heat waves at the dry timberline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakir, D.; Rotenberg, E.; Tatrinov, F.; Ogee, J.; Maseyk, K.

    2012-04-01

    Predictions of climate change consistently indicate continuous warming and drying for the entire Mediterranean basin and other regions during the next century. Investigating forest functioning at the current dry and hot "timberline" has therefore implications for predicting future forest distribution. In such investigations we should consider the forest adjustments to extreme conditions both at the long-term average climate basis, as at the time-scale of episodic extreme events, such as heat waves and droughts. Investigating both aspects in a 45-yr old semi-arid pine forest at the dry timberline (MuSICA) was used to test our understandings of underlying processes, and our ability to account for such differential responses.

  8. Heat tolerance in wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Dew Kumari

    As a consequence of global climate change, heat stress together with other abiotic stresses will remain an important determinant of future food security. Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is the third most important crop of the world feeding one third of the world population. Being a crop of temperate...... climate, wheat is sensitive to heat stress. We need to understand how our crops will perform in these changing climatic conditions and how we can develop varieties, which are more tolerant. The PhD study focussed on understanding heat tolerance in wheat with a combined approach of plant physiology...... and quantitative genetics in particular, plant phenotyping based quantitative trait loci (QTL) discovery for a physiological trait under heat stress. Chlorophyll a fluorescence trait, Fv/Fm was used as a phenotyping tool, as it reflects the effect of heat stress on maximum photochemical efficiency of photosystem...

  9. `Green heat` in a UK city

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    1997-06-01

    This brief article describes the Sheffield `green heat` scheme which utilises heat from a local waste incinerator to operate an independent district heating scheme within Sheffield city centre. Standby and peak overload heat generation capacity is provided by four boiler plants ensuring integrity of supply. The benefits of the scheme and future developments are outlined. (UK)

  10. Heat savings in buildings in a 100% renewable heat and power system in Denmark with different shares of district heating

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zvingilaite, Erika; Balyk, Olexandr

    2014-01-01

    levels of heat savings, which can be implemented by reducing heat transmission losses through building elements and by installing ventilation systems with heat recovery, in different future Danish heat and power system scenarios. Today almost 50% of heat demand in Denmark is covered by district heating......The paper examines implementation of heat saving measures in buildings in 2050, under the assumption that heat and power supply comes solely from renewable resources in Denmark.Balmorel – a linear optimisation model of heat and power sectors in Denmark is used for investigating economically viable....... A further expansion of district heating network in Denmark is assessed and penetration of heat savings is analysed in this context.If all heat saving measures, included in the model, are implemented, heat demand in Danish buildings in 2050 could be reduced by around 40%. Results show that it is cost...

  11. Heat Roadmap Europe: Identifying strategic heat synergy regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persson, U.; Möller, B.; Werner, S.

    2014-01-01

    This study presents a methodology to assess annual excess heat volumes from fuel combustion activities in energy and industry sector facilities based on carbon dioxide emission data. The aim is to determine regional balances of excess heat relative heat demands for all third level administrative regions in the European Union (EU) and to identify strategic regions suitable for large-scale implementation of district heating. The approach is motivated since the efficiency of current supply structures to meet building heat demands, mainly characterised by direct use of primary energy sources, is low and improvable. District heating is conceived as an urban supply side energy efficiency measure employable to enhance energy system efficiency by increased excess heat recoveries; hereby reducing primary energy demands by fuel substitution. However, the importance of heat has long been underestimated in EU decarbonisation strategies and local heat synergies have often been overlooked in energy models used for such scenarios. Study results indicate that 46% of all excess heat in EU27, corresponding to 31% of total building heat demands, is located within identified strategic regions. Still, a realisation of these rich opportunities will require higher recognition of the heat sector in future EU energy policy. - Highlights: • EU27 energy and industry sector heat recycling resources are mapped and quantified. • Target regions for large-scale implementation of district heating are identified. • 46% of total EU27 excess heat volume is seized in 63 strategic heat synergy regions. • Large urban zones have lead roles to play in transition to sustainability in Europe. • Higher recognition of heat sector is needed in future EU energy policy for realisation

  12. Impacts of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Regional Climate: Extreme Events, Stagnation, and the United States Warming Hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascioli, Nora R.

    Extreme temperatures, heat waves, heavy rainfall events, drought, and extreme air pollution events have adverse effects on human health, infrastructure, agriculture and economies. The frequency, magnitude and duration of these events are expected to change in the future in response to increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing aerosols, but future climate projections are uncertain. A significant portion of this uncertainty arises from uncertainty in the effects of aerosol forcing: to what extent were the effects from greenhouse gases masked by aerosol forcing over the historical observational period, and how much will decreases in aerosol forcing influence regional and global climate over the remainder of the 21st century? The observed frequency and intensity of extreme heat and precipitation events have increased in the U.S. over the latter half of the 20th century. Using aerosol only (AER) and greenhouse gas only (GHG) simulations from 1860 to 2005 in the GFDL CM3 chemistry-climate model, I parse apart the competing influences of aerosols and greenhouse gases on these extreme events. I find that small changes in extremes in the "all forcing" simulations reflect cancellations between the effects of increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. In AER, extreme high temperatures and the number of days with temperatures above the 90th percentile decline over most of the U.S., while in GHG high temperature extremes increase over most of the U.S. The spatial response patterns in AER and GHG are significantly anti-correlated, suggesting a preferred regional mode of response that is largely independent of the type of forcing. Extreme precipitation over the eastern U.S. decreases in AER, particularly in winter, and increases over the eastern and central U.S. in GHG, particularly in spring. Over the 21 st century under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, the patterns of extreme temperature and precipitation change associated with greenhouse gas forcing dominate. The

  13. NCSX Plasma Heating Methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kugel, H.W.; Spong, D.; Majeski, R.; Zarnstorff, M.

    2008-01-01

    The National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) has been designed to accommodate a variety of heating systems, including ohmic heating, neutral beam injection, and radio-frequency (rf). Neutral beams will provide one of the primary heating methods for NCSX. In addition to plasma heating, neutral beams are also expected to provide a means for external control over the level of toroidal plasma rotation velocity and its profile. The experimental plan requires 3 MW of 50-keV balanced neutral beam tangential injection with pulse lengths of 500 ms for initial experiments, to be upgradeable to pulse lengths of 1.5 s. Subsequent upgrades will add 3MW of neutral beam injection (NBI). This paper discusses the NCSX NBI requirements and design issues and shows how these are provided by the candidate PBX-M NBI system. In addition, estimations are given for beam heating efficiencies, scaling of heating efficiency with machine size and magnetic field level, parameter studies of the optimum beam injection tangency radius and toroidal injection location, and loss patterns of beam ions on the vacuum chamber wall to assist placement of wall armor and for minimizing the generation of impurities by the energetic beam ions. Finally, subsequent upgrades could add an additional 6 MW of rf heating by mode conversion ion Bernstein wave (MCIBW) heating, and if desired as possible future upgrades, the design also will accommodate high-harmonic fast-wave and electron cyclotron heating. The initial MCIBW heating technique and the design of the rf system lend themselves to current drive, so if current drive became desirable for any reason, only minor modifications to the heating system described here would be needed. The rf system will also be capable of localized ion heating (bulk or tail), and possibly IBW-generated sheared flows

  14. NCSX Plasma Heating Methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kugel, H.W.; Spong, D.; Majeski, R.; Zarnstorff, M.

    2003-01-01

    The NCSX (National Compact Stellarator Experiment) has been designed to accommodate a variety of heating systems, including ohmic heating, neutral-beam injection, and radio-frequency. Neutral beams will provide one of the primary heating methods for NCSX. In addition to plasma heating, beams are also expected to provide a means for external control over the level of toroidal plasma rotation velocity and its profile. The plan is to provide 3 MW of 50 keV balanced neutral-beam tangential injection with pulse lengths of 500 msec for initial experiments, and to be upgradeable to pulse lengths of 1.5 sec. Subsequent upgrades will add 3 MW of neutral-beam injection. This Chapter discusses the NCSX neutral-beam injection requirements and design issues, and shows how these are provided by the candidate PBX-M (Princeton Beta Experiment-Modification) neutral-beam injection system. In addition, estimations are given for beam-heating efficiencies, scaling of heating efficiency with machine size an d magnetic field level, parameter studies of the optimum beam-injection tangency radius and toroidal injection location, and loss patterns of beam ions on the vacuum chamber wall to assist placement of wall armor and for minimizing the generation of impurities by the energetic beam ions. Finally, subsequent upgrades could add an additional 6 MW of radio-frequency heating by mode-conversion ion-Bernstein wave (MCIBW) heating, and if desired as possible future upgrades, the design also will accommodate high-harmonic fast-wave and electron-cyclotron heating. The initial MCIBW heating technique and the design of the radio-frequency system lend themselves to current drive, so that if current drive became desirable for any reason only minor modifications to the heating system described here would be needed. The radio-frequency system will also be capable of localized ion heating (bulk or tail), and possibly ion-Bernstein-wave-generated sheared flows

  15. The Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, G. J.; Tye, M. R.

    2014-12-01

    Hurricane Sandy and the recent floods in Thailand have demonstrated not only how sensitive the urban environment is to the impact of severe weather, but also the associated global reach of the ramifications. These, together with other growing extreme weather impacts and the increasing interdependence of global commercial activities point towards a growing vulnerability to weather and climate extremes. The Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership brings academia, industry and government together with the goals encouraging joint activities aimed at developing new, robust, and well-communicated responses to this increasing vulnerability. Integral to the approach is the concept of 'graceful failure' in which flexible designs are adopted that protect against failure by combining engineering or network strengths with a plan for efficient and rapid recovery if and when they fail. Such an approach enables optimal planning for both known future scenarios and their assessed uncertainty.

  16. Extremes in nature

    CERN Document Server

    Salvadori, Gianfausto; Kottegoda, Nathabandu T

    2007-01-01

    This book is about the theoretical and practical aspects of the statistics of Extreme Events in Nature. Most importantly, this is the first text in which Copulas are introduced and used in Geophysics. Several topics are fully original, and show how standard models and calculations can be improved by exploiting the opportunities offered by Copulas. In addition, new quantities useful for design and risk assessment are introduced.

  17. District heating in sequential energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persson, Urban; Werner, Sven

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► European excess heat recovery and utilisation by district heat distribution. ► Heat recovery in district heating systems – a structural energy efficiency measure. ► Introduction of new theoretical concepts to express excess heat recovery. ► Fourfold potential for excess heat utilisation in EU27 compared to current levels. ► Large scale excess heat recovery – a collaborative challenge for future Europe. -- Abstract: Increased recovery of excess heat from thermal power generation and industrial processes has great potential to reduce primary energy demands in EU27. In this study, current excess heat utilisation levels by means of district heat distribution are assessed and expressed by concepts such as recovery efficiency, heat recovery rate, and heat utilisation rate. For two chosen excess heat activities, current average EU27 heat recovery levels are compared to currently best Member State practices, whereby future potentials of European excess heat recovery and utilisation are estimated. The principle of sequential energy supply is elaborated to capture the conceptual idea of excess heat recovery in district heating systems as a structural and organisational energy efficiency measure. The general conditions discussed concerning expansion of heat recovery into district heating systems include infrastructure investments in district heating networks, collaboration agreements, maintained value chains, policy support, world market energy prices, allocation of synergy benefits, and local initiatives. The main conclusion from this study is that a future fourfold increase of current EU27 excess heat utilisation by means of district heat distribution to residential and service sectors is conceived as plausible if applying best Member State practice. This estimation is higher than the threefold increase with respect to direct feasible distribution costs estimated by the same authors in a previous study. Hence, no direct barriers appear with

  18. Rhabdomyosarcoma of the extremity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, Bhaskar N

    1997-01-01

    Rhabdomyosarcoma is the most common soft tissue sarcoma accounting for almost 55%. These tumors arise from unsegmented mesoderm or primitive mesenchyma, which have the capacity to differentiate into muscle. Less than 5% occur in the first year of life. Extremity rhabdomyosarcoma are mainly seen in the adolescent years. The most common histologic subtype is the alveolar variant. Other characteristics of extremity rhabdomyosarcoma include a predilection for lymph node metastasis, a high local failure, and a relatively low survival rate. They often present as slow painless masses; however, lesions in the hand and foot often present as painful masses and imaging studies may show invasion of the bone. Initial diagnostic approaches include needle biopsy or incisional biopsy for larger lesions. Excisional biopsy is indicated preferably for lesions less than 2.5 cm. following this in most instances therapy is initiated with multi agent chemotherapy depending upon response, the next modality may be either surgery with intent to cure or radiation therapy. Amputation of an extremity for local control is not considered in most instances. Prognostic factors that have been determined over the years to be of significance by multi variant analysis have included age, tumor size, invasiveness, presence of either nodal or distant metastasis, and complete excision whenever feasible, with supplemental radiation therapy for local control

  19. Predicting Malaysian palm oil price using Extreme Value Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Chuangchid, K; Sriboonchitta, S; Rahman, S; Wiboonpongse, A

    2013-01-01

    This paper uses the extreme value theory (EVT) to predict extreme price events of Malaysian palm oil in the future, based on monthly futures price data for a 25 year period (mid-1986 to mid-2011). Model diagnostic has confirmed non-normal distribution of palm oil price data, thereby justifying the use of EVT. Two principal approaches to model extreme values – the Block Maxima (BM) and Peak-Over- Threshold (POT) models – were used. Both models revealed that the palm oil price will peak at ...

  20. Heat pumps

    CERN Document Server

    Brodowicz, Kazimierz; Wyszynski, M L; Wyszynski

    2013-01-01

    Heat pumps and related technology are in widespread use in industrial processes and installations. This book presents a unified, comprehensive and systematic treatment of the design and operation of both compression and sorption heat pumps. Heat pump thermodynamics, the choice of working fluid and the characteristics of low temperature heat sources and their application to heat pumps are covered in detail.Economic aspects are discussed and the extensive use of the exergy concept in evaluating performance of heat pumps is a unique feature of the book. The thermodynamic and chemical properties o

  1. Microwave Coupling to ECR and Alternative Heating Methods

    CERN Document Server

    Celona, L.

    2013-12-16

    The Electron Cyclotron Resonance Ion Source (ECRIS) is nowadays the most effective device that can feed particle accelerators in a continuous and reliable way, providing high-current beams of low- and medium-charge-state ions and relatively intense currents for highly charged ions. The ECRIS is an important tool for research with ion beams (in surface, atomic, and nuclear science) while, on the other hand, it implies plasma under extreme conditions and thus constitutes an object of scientific interest in itself. The fundamental aspect of the coupling between the electromagnetic wave and the plasma is hereinafter treated together with some variations to the classical ECR heating mechanism, with particular attention being paid to the frequency tuning effect and two-frequency heating. Considerations of electron and ion dynamics will be presented together with some recent observations connecting the beam shape with the frequency of the electromagnetic wave feeding the cavity. The future challenges of higher-charg...

  2. Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

    2014-05-01

    , with consequences being a function of the intensity of the physical weather event, the exposure and value of assets, and vulnerabilities. We have examined selected major extreme events and disasters, including superstorm Sandy in 2012, the Pakistan floods and the heat wave in Russia in 2010, the 2010 floods in Colombia and the 2011 floods in Australia. We systematically analyzed to what extent (anthropogenic) climate change may have contributed to intensity and frequency of the event, along with changes in the other risk variables, to eventually reach a more comprehensive understanding of the relative role of climate change in recent loss and damage of extreme weather events.

  3. Moving in extreme environments:what’s extreme and who decides?

    OpenAIRE

    Cotter, James David; Tipton, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    Humans work, rest and play in immensely varied extreme environments. The term ‘extreme’ typically refers to insufficiency or excess of one or more stressors, such as thermal energy or gravity. Individuals’ behavioural and physiological capacity to endure and enjoy such environments varies immensely. Adverse effects of acute exposure to these environments are readily identifiable (e.g. heat stroke or bone fracture), whereas adverse effects of chronic exposure (e.g. stress fractures or osteopor...

  4. Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, John P.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; John, Jasmin G.

    2013-06-01

    A fundamental aspect of greenhouse-gas-induced warming is a global-scale increase in absolute humidity. Under continued warming, this response has been shown to pose increasingly severe limitations on human activity in tropical and mid-latitudes during peak months of heat stress. One heat-stress metric with broad occupational health applications is wet-bulb globe temperature. We combine wet-bulb globe temperatures from global climate historical reanalysis and Earth System Model (ESM2M) projections with industrial and military guidelines for an acclimated individual's occupational capacity to safely perform sustained labour under environmental heat stress (labour capacity)--here defined as a global population-weighted metric temporally fixed at the 2010 distribution. We estimate that environmental heat stress has reduced labour capacity to 90% in peak months over the past few decades. ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to 80% in peak months by 2050. Under the highest scenario considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to less than 40% by 2200 in peak months, with most tropical and mid-latitudes experiencing extreme climatological heat stress. Uncertainties and caveats associated with these projections include climate sensitivity, climate warming patterns, CO2 emissions, future population distributions, and technological and societal change.

  5. Heat transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saad, M.A.

    1985-01-01

    Heat transfer takes place between material systems as a result of a temperature difference. The transmission process involves energy conversions governed by the first and second laws of thermodynamics. The heat transfer proceeds from a high-temperature region to a low-temperature region, and because of the finite thermal potential, there is an increase in entropy. Thermodynamics, however, is concerned with equilibrium states, which includes thermal equilibrium, irrespective of the time necessary to attain these equilibrium states. But heat transfer is a result of thermal nonequilibrium conditions, therefore, the laws of thermodynamics alone cannot describe completely the heat transfer process. In practice, most engineering problems are concerned with the rate of heat transfer rather than the quantity of heat being transferred. Resort then is directed to the particular laws governing the transfer of heat. There are three distinct modes of heat transfer: conduction, convection, and radiation. Although these modes are discussed separately, all three types may occur simultaneously

  6. Anaerobic metabolism at thermal extremes: a metabolomic test of the oxygen limitation hypothesis in an aquatic insect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verberk, W C E P; Sommer, U; Davidson, R L; Viant, M R

    2013-10-01

    Thermal limits in ectotherms may arise through a mismatch between supply and demand of oxygen. At higher temperatures, the ability of their cardiac and ventilatory activities to supply oxygen becomes insufficient to meet their elevated oxygen demand. Consequently, higher levels of oxygen in the environment are predicted to enhance tolerance of heat, whereas reductions in oxygen are expected to reduce thermal limits. Here, we extend previous research on thermal limits and oxygen limitation in aquatic insect larvae and directly test the hypothesis of increased anaerobic metabolism and lower energy status at thermal extremes. We quantified metabolite profiles in stonefly nymphs under varying temperatures and oxygen levels. Under normoxia, the concept of oxygen limitation applies to the insects studied. Shifts in the metabolome of heat-stressed stonefly nymphs clearly indicate the onset of anaerobic metabolism (e.g., accumulation of lactate, acetate, and alanine), a perturbation of the tricarboxylic acid cycle (e.g., accumulation of succinate and malate), and a decrease in energy status (e.g., ATP), with corresponding decreases in their ability to survive heat stress. These shifts were more pronounced under hypoxic conditions, and negated by hyperoxia, which also improved heat tolerance. Perturbations of metabolic pathways in response to either heat stress or hypoxia were found to be somewhat similar but not identical. Under hypoxia, energy status was greatly compromised at thermal extremes, but energy shortage and anaerobic metabolism could not be conclusively identified as the sole cause underlying thermal limits under hyperoxia. Metabolomics proved useful for suggesting a range of possible mechanisms to explore in future investigations, such as the involvement of leaking membranes or free radicals. In doing so, metabolomics provided a more complete picture of changes in metabolism under hypoxia and heat stress.

  7. Heat exchanger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daman, Ernest L.; McCallister, Robert A.

    1979-01-01

    A heat exchanger is provided having first and second fluid chambers for passing primary and secondary fluids. The chambers are spaced apart and have heat pipes extending from inside one chamber to inside the other chamber. A third chamber is provided for passing a purge fluid, and the heat pipe portion between the first and second chambers lies within the third chamber.

  8. The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan

    2016-04-01

    In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude