Understanding China’s past and future energy demand: An exergy efficiency and decomposition analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brockway, Paul E.; Steinberger, Julia K.; Barrett, John R.; Foxon, Timothy J.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We complete the first time series exergy and useful work study of China (1971–2010). • Novel exergy approach to understand China’s past and future energy consumption. • China’s exergy efficiency rose from 5% to 13%, and is now above US (11%). • Decomposition finds this is due to structural change not technical leapfrogging. • Results suggests current models may underestimate China’s future energy demand. - Abstract: There are very few useful work and exergy analysis studies for China, and fewer still that consider how the results inform drivers of past and future energy consumption. This is surprising: China is the world’s largest energy consumer, whilst exergy analysis provides a robust thermodynamic framework for analysing the technical efficiency of energy use. In response, we develop three novel sub-analyses. First we perform a long-term whole economy time-series exergy analysis for China (1971–2010). We find a 10-fold growth in China’s useful work since 1971, which is supplied by a 4-fold increase in primary energy coupled to a 2.5-fold gain in aggregate exergy conversion efficiency to useful work: from 5% to 12.5%. Second, using index decomposition we expose the key driver of efficiency growth as not ‘technological leapfrogging’ but structural change: i.e. increasing reliance on thermodynamically efficient (but very energy intensive) heavy industrial activities. Third, we extend our useful work analysis to estimate China’s future primary energy demand, and find values for 2030 that are significantly above mainstream projections

Provincial panel: addressing emerging energy constraints and new strategies to meet future generation demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarkson, J.

2006-01-01

This paper addresses emerging energy constraints and new strategies to meet future generation demand in the Province of Manitoba. The focus is to reduce reliance on energy sources that emit greenhouse gases such as petroleum, natural gas and coal, and increase clean and green electricity. The current plan is to double hydro generation, achieve 1000 MW wind power and utilize bio energy

Future internet concepts for demand management

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Madhoo, H

2015-04-01

Full Text Available research and experimental initiative linked to the Future Internet (TRESCIMO) which facilitates the validity of using these technologies as base for energy demand management. The initiative utilises a philosophy of informing customers about their energy...

Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

2011-01-01

Targeted measures influencing vehicle technology are increasingly a tool of energy policy makers within the EU as a means of meeting energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change and energy security goals. This paper develops the modelling capacity for analysing and evaluating such legislation, with a focus on private car energy demand. We populate a baseline car stock and car activity model for Ireland to 2025 using historical car stock data. The model takes account of the lifetime survival profile of different car types, the trends in vehicle activity over the fleet and the fuel price and income elasticities of new car sales and total fleet activity. The impacts of many policy alternatives may only be simulated by such a bottom-up approach, which can aid policy development and evaluation. The level of detail achieved provides specific insights into the technological drivers of energy consumption, thus aiding planning for meeting climate targets. This paper focuses on the methodology and baseline scenario. Baseline results for Ireland forecast a decline in private car energy demand growth (0.2%, compared with 4% in the period 2000–2008), caused by the relative growth in fleet efficiency compared with activity. - Highlights: ► Bottom-up private car energy forecasting model developed. ► The demographic and technological distribution of vehicle activity is a key veriable. ► Irish car energy demand growth predicted to slow steadily. ► Change in vehicle taxation forecast to save 10% energy.

Potentials for energy savings and long term energy demand of Croatian households sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pukšec, Tomislav; Vad Mathiesen, Brian; Duić, Neven

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Long term energy demand of Croatian households sector has been modelled. ► Developed model can describe the whole households sector. ► Main modes include heating, cooling, electrical appliances, cooking and hot water. ► Different scenarios regarding future energy demand are presented and discussed. -- Abstract: Households represent one of the most interesting sectors, when analyzing Croatia’s energy balance. It makes up one of the largest energy consumers with around 75 PJ per year, which is almost 29% of Croatia’s final energy demand. Considering this consumption, implementing various mechanisms, which would lead to improvements in energy efficiency of this sector, seems relevant. In order to plan future energy systems, important would be to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand of different sectors. Through this paper, long term energy demand projections of Croatian households sector will be shown. Focus of the paper will be on various mechanisms influencing future energy demand scenarios. Important would be to quantify this influence, whether positive or negative, and see which mechanisms would be the most significant. Energy demand projections in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model which combines and processes a large number of input data. The model will be compared to Croatian National Energy Strategy and certain differences and conclusions will be presented. One of the major conclusions shown in this paper is significant possibilities for energy efficiency improvements and lower energy demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which leads to lower GHG emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels.

An overview of world future energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jenkin, F.P.

1995-01-01

The World Energy Council Commission's report Energy for Tomorrow's World was published in September 1993. The Commission's three year study of world energy problems involved both bottom-up studies, undertaken by groups of experts in nine main regions of the world, and top-down studies of global aspects. The latter included the preparation of energy demand and supply projections up to the study horizon of 2020, together with a brief look at prospects up to 2100. This Paper is based on the Commission's work. (author)

How to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future?

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Haiyun; Chen, Ji; Sivakumar, Bellie; Peart, Mervyn

2017-04-01

Regarded as a driving force in water, food and energy demands, the world's population has been increasing rapidly since the beginning of the 20th century. According to the medium-growth projection scenario of the United Nations, the world's population will reach 9.5 billion by 2050. In response to the continuously growing population during this century, water, food and energy demands have also been increasing rapidly, and social problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if no proper management strategies are adopted. Then, how to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future? This study focuses on the sustainable developments of population, water, food, energy and dams, and the significances of this study can be concluded as follows: First, we reveal the close association between dams and social development through analysing the related data for the period 1960-2010, and argue that construction of additional large dams will have to be considered as one of the best available options to meet the increasing water, food and energy demands in the future. We conduct the projections of global water, food and energy consumptions and dam development for the period 2010-2050, and the results show that, compared to 2010, the total water, food and energy consumptions in 2050 will increase by 20%, 34% and 37%, respectively. Moreover, it is projected that additional 4,340 dams will be constructed by 2050 all over the world. Second, we analyse the current situation of global water scarcity based on the related data representing water resources availability (per capita available water resources), dam development (the number of dams), and the level of economic development (per capita gross domestic product). At the global scale, water scarcity exists in more than 70% of the countries around the world, including 43 countries suffering from economic water scarcity and 129 countries suffering from physical water

A Study on stabilization of energy supply and demand using foreign futures market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, Won Chul; Lee, Sung Keun [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-02-01

This study seeks to minimize financial cost related to the price stabilization and the supply and demand stabilization. In order to accomplish this, it derives a theoretical model of supply hedging to minimize fluctuation risk of price and financial cost intended for crude oil and LNG. Through the positive analysis based on this, it analyzes quantitatively the economic effect of utilizing foreign futures market. It shows the decline of average and divergence of supply cost. Despite the economic effect of utilizing a futures market, the degree of utilizing energy futures market of related firms in Korea appeared to be insufficient. To raise the utilization of trading in futures, the followings were suggested. Firstly, cost reduction and sharing relating information can be designed through the joint participation among allied enterprises. Secondly, energy futures transaction center in Korea can be established or trading linkage based on the existing international trading system can be built. Thirdly, it is possible to subsidize related cost by making a loan from trading in futures. Lastly, the participating directly in a futures market at government level can be considered. (author). 61 refs., 57 figs., 22 tabs.

Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

2012-01-01

Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

Energy demand futures by global models : Projections of a complex system

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Edelenbosch, O.Y.

2018-01-01

The energy demand sectors industry, transport and buildings are together directly responsible for around 51 % of the global energy-related CO2 emissions and indirectly drive the emissions in the energy supply sectors. The demand sectors are characterized by many subsectors, technologies,

Temperature effects on future energy demand in Sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Shivakumar, Abhishek

2016-04-01

Climate change is projected to adversely impact different parts of the world to varying extents. Preliminary studies show that Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts, including changes to precipitation levels and temperatures. This work will analyse the effect of changes in temperature on critical systems such as energy supply and demand. Factors that determine energy demand include income, population, temperature (represented by cooling and heating degree days), and household structures. With many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa projected to experience rapid growth in both income and population levels, this study aims to quantify the amplified effects of these factors - coupled with temperature changes - on energy demand. The temperature effects will be studied across a range of scenarios for each of the factors mentioned above, and identify which of the factors is likely to have the most significant impact on energy demand in Sub-Saharan Africa. Results of this study can help set priorities for decision-makers to enhance the climate resilience of critical infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Future demand scenarios of Bangladesh power sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain; Boie, Wulf; Denich, Manfred

2010-01-01

Data on the future electricity demand is an essential requirement for planning the expansion of a power system. The purpose of this study is to provide a general overview of electricity consumption in Bangladesh, forecast sector-wise electricity demand up to 2035 considering the base year 2005, and compare the results with official projections. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model with three scenarios, namely low gross domestic product (GDP) growth, average GDP growth and high GDP growth, is applied in this study. In the low to high GDP growth scenarios, the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement is gradually increased. The findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development. The study also compares the projected per capita electricity consumption in Bangladesh with the historical growth in several other developing countries. Such an evaluation can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in Bangladesh to meet the high future demand.

Long term energy demand projection and potential for energy savings of Croatian tourism–catering trade sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Irsag, Bojan; Pukšec, Tomislav; Duić, Neven

2012-01-01

Today, tourism represents one of the backbones of Croatian economy and one of the main factors of its growth. Combined with catering trade sector, tourism represents a significant energy consumer that has the tendencies of future growth. Since services sector, which tourism–catering trade sector is a part of, is not yet well described regarding future energy balances it would be very interesting to see how could possible future growth in tourism influence energy consumption of the services sector in Croatia. Through this paper long term energy demand projections of tourism–catering trade sector were studied with special emphasis on future growth of tourism in Croatia as well as different mechanisms that might lead to certain energy savings. Bottom-up approach was chosen as the most suitable one since it allows better quantification of different measures, technological or legal, that would influence future energy demand. Downside of this approach is extensive input data that is required to analyse and model future energy demand which is roughly divided into heating/cooling section and all other consumption. Results show that additional energy savings in the tourism–catering trade sector are possible if careful and rational demand side planning is in place. -- Highlights: ► Future energy demand of Croatian touristm–catering trade sector has been modelled. ► Model is roughly divided into two basic modes (heating/cooling and all other consumption). ► Different factors influencing future energy demand were implemented into the model. ► Possibilities for energy efficiency improvements have been presented.

Energy in China: Coping with increasing demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandklef, Kristina

2004-11-01

Sustaining the increasing energy consumption is crucial to future economic growth in China. This report focuses on the current and future situation of energy production and consumption in China and how China is coping with its increasing domestic energy demand. Today, coal is the most important energy resource, followed by oil and hydropower. Most energy resources are located in the inland, whereas the main demand for energy is in the coastal areas, which makes transportation and transmission of energy vital. The industrial sector is the main driver of the energy consumption in China, but the transport sector and the residential sector will increase their share of consumption in China, but the transport sector and the residential sector will increase their share of consumption by 2020. China's energy intensity decreased during the 1990s, but it is still high in a global comparison. China is projected to increase its energy consumption at least two times between 2000 and 2025. The government has an equal focus on energy conservation and to develop the current energy resources. Coal will continue to be the most important fuel, but the demand for oil, hydropower, natural gas and nuclear power will also increase. The main future challenges are transportation of energy resources within China and securing oil supply, both domestic and imports

The impact of predicted demand on energy production

Science.gov (United States)

El kafazi, I.; Bannari, R.; Aboutafail, My. O.

2018-05-01

Energy is crucial for human life, a secure and accessible supply of power is essential for the sustainability of societies. Economic development and demographic progression increase energy demand, prompting countries to conduct research and studies on energy demand and production. Although, increasing in energy demand in the future requires a correct determination of the amount of energy supplied. Our article studies the impact of demand on energy production to find the relationship between the two latter and managing properly the production between the different energy sources. Historical data of demand and energy production since 2000 are used. The data are processed by the regression model to study the impact of demand on production. The obtained results indicate that demand has a positive and significant impact on production (high impact). Production is also increasing but at a slower pace. In this work, Morocco is considered as a case study.

Demand response in energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skytte, K.; Birk Mortensen, J.

2004-11-01

Improving the ability of energy demand to respond to wholesale prices during critical periods of the spot market can reduce the total costs of reliably meeting demand, and the level and volatility of the prices. This fact has lead to a growing interest in the short-run demand response. There has especially been a growing interest in the electricity market where peak-load periods with high spot prices and occasional local blackouts have recently been seen. Market concentration at the supply side can result in even higher peak-load prices. Demand response by shifting demand from peak to base-load periods can counteract the market power in the peak-load. However, demand response has so far been modest since the current short-term price elasticity seems to be small. This is also the case for related markets, for example, green certificates where the demand is determined as a percentage of the power demand, or for heat and natural gas markets. This raises a number of interesting research issues: 1) Demand response in different energy markets, 2) Estimation of price elasticity and flexibility, 3) Stimulation of demand response, 4) Regulation, policy and modelling aspects, 5) Demand response and market power at the supply side, 6) Energy security of supply, 7) Demand response in forward, spot, ancillary service, balance and capacity markets, 8) Demand response in deviated markets, e.g., emission, futures, and green certificate markets, 9) Value of increased demand response, 10) Flexible households. (BA)

Modeling and analysis of long term energy demands in residential sector of pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rashid, T.; Sahir, M.H.

2015-01-01

Residential sector is the core among the energy demand sectors in Pakistan. Currently, various techniques are being used worldwide to assess future energy demands including integrated system modeling (ISM). Therefore, the current study is focused on implementation of ISM approach for future energy demand analysis of Pakistan's residential sector in terms of increase in population, rapid urbanization, household size and type, and increase/decrease in GDP. A detailed business-as-usual (BAU) model is formulated in TIMES energy modeling framework using different factors like growth in future energy services, end-use technology characterization, and restricted fuel supplies. Additionally, the developed model is capable to compare the projected energy demand under different scenarios e.g. strong economy, weak economy and energy efficiency. The implementation of ISM proved a viable approach to predict the future energy demands of Pakistan's residential sector. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the energy consumption in the residential sector would be 46.5 Mtoe (Million Ton of Oil Equivalent) in 2040 compared to 23 Mtoe of the base year (2007) along with 600% increase in electricity demands. The study further maps the potential residential energy policies to congregate the future demands. (author)

Reevaluation of Turkey's hydropower potential and electric energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yueksek, Omer

2008-01-01

This paper deals with Turkey's hydropower potential and its long-term electric energy demand predictions. In the paper, at first, Turkey's energy sources are briefly reviewed. Then, hydropower potential is analyzed and it has been concluded that Turkey's annual economically feasible hydropower potential is about 188 TWh, nearly 47% greater than the previous estimation figures of 128 TWh. A review on previous prediction models for Turkey's long-term electric energy demand is presented. In order to predict the future demand, new increment ratio scenarios, which depend on both observed data and future predictions of population, energy consumption per capita and total energy consumption, are developed. The results of 11 prediction models are compared and analyzed. It is concluded that Turkey's annual electric energy demand predictions in 2010, 2015 and 2020 vary between 222 and 242 (average 233) TWh; 302 and 356 (average 334) TWh; and 440 and 514 (average 476) TWh, respectively. A discussion on the role of hydropower in meeting long-term demand is also included in the paper and it has been predicted that hydropower can meet 25-35% of Turkey's electric energy demand in 2020

Simple future weather files for estimating heating and cooling demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cox, Rimante Andrasiunaite; Drews, Martin; Rode, Carsten

2015-01-01

useful estimates of future energy demand of a building. Experimental results based on both the degree-day method and dynamic simulations suggest that this is indeed the case. Specifically, heating demand estimates were found to be within a few per cent of one another, while estimates of cooling demand...... were slightly more varied. This variation was primarily due to the very few hours of cooling that were required in the region examined. Errors were found to be most likely when the air temperatures were close to the heating or cooling balance points, where the energy demand was modest and even...... relatively large errors might thus result in only modest absolute errors in energy demand....

Modelling transport energy demand: A socio-technical approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anable, Jillian; Brand, Christian; Tran, Martino; Eyre, Nick

2012-01-01

Despite an emerging consensus that societal energy consumption and related emissions are not only influenced by technical efficiency but also by lifestyles and socio-cultural factors, few attempts have been made to operationalise these insights in models of energy demand. This paper addresses that gap by presenting a scenario exercise using an integrated suite of sectoral and whole systems models to explore potential energy pathways in the UK transport sector. Techno-economic driven scenarios are contrasted with one in which social change is strongly influenced by concerns about energy use, the environment and well-being. The ‘what if’ Lifestyle scenario reveals a future in which distance travelled by car is reduced by 74% by 2050 and final energy demand from transport is halved compared to the reference case. Despite the more rapid uptake of electric vehicles and the larger share of electricity in final energy demand, it shows a future where electricity decarbonisation could be delayed. The paper illustrates the key trade-off between the more aggressive pursuit of purely technological fixes and demand reduction in the transport sector and concludes there are strong arguments for pursuing both demand and supply side solutions in the pursuit of emissions reduction and energy security.

The CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand

OpenAIRE

Gotts, Nicholas Mark

2014-01-01

This paper describes the design, implementation and testing of the CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand, and the first results of its use to produce estimates of future demand under a range of scenarios. CEDSS simulates direct domestic energy demand at within communities of approximately 200 households. The scenarios explored differ in the economic conditions assumed, and policy measures adopted at national level.

Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó.; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

2016-01-01

This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies. - Highlights: •A private car energy model is built using aggregated available data. •Andorra's current car fleet energy consumption is estimated and forecasted to 2050. •Potential energy savings have been estimated using sensitivity and scenario analysis.

Optimal balance between energy demand and onsite energy generation for robust net zero energy buildings considering future scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kotireddy, R.R.; Hoes, P.; Hensen, J.L.M.

2015-01-01

Net-zero energy buildings have usually very low energy demand, and consequently heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are designed and controlled to meet this low energy demand. However, a number of uncertainties in the building use, operation and external conditions such as

Energy efficiency improvement potentials and a low energy demand scenario for the global industrial sector

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kermeli, Katerina; Graus, Wina H J; Worrell, Ernst

2014-01-01

The adoption of energy efficiency measures can significantly reduce industrial energy use. This study estimates the future industrial energy consumption under two energy demand scenarios: (1) a reference scenario that follows business as usual trends and (2) a low energy demand scenario that takes

Energy demand of the German and Dutch residential building stock under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Olonscheck, Mady; Holsten, Anne; Walther, Carsten; Kropp, Jürgen P.

2014-05-01

In order to mitigate climate change, extraordinary measures are necessary in the future. The building sector, in particular, offers considerable potential for transformation to lower energy demand. On a national level, however, successful and far-reaching measures will likely be taken only if reliable estimates regarding future energy demand from different scenarios are available. The energy demand for space heating and cooling is determined by a combination of behavioral, climatic, constructional, and demographic factors. For two countries, namely Germany and the Netherlands, we analyze the combined effect of future climate and building stock changes as well as renovation measures on the future energy demand for room conditioning of residential buildings until 2060. We show how much the heating energy demand will decrease in the future and answer the question of whether the energy decrease will be exceeded by an increase in cooling energy demand. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we determine those influencing factors with the largest impact on the future energy demand from the building stock. Both countries have national targets regarding the reduction of the energy demand for the future. We provide relevant information concerning the annual renovation rates that are necessary to reach these targets. Retrofitting buildings is a win-win option as it not only helps to mitigate climate change and to lower the dependency on fossil fuels but also transforms the buildings stock into one that is better equipped for extreme temperatures that may occur more frequently with climate change. For the Netherlands, the study concentrates not only on the national, but also the provincial level, which should facilitate directed policy measures. Moreover, the analysis is done on a monthly basis in order to ascertain a deeper understanding of the future seasonal energy demand changes. Our approach constitutes an important first step towards deeper insights into the internal dynamics

Climate change, renewable energy and population impact on future energy demand for Burkina Faso build environment

Science.gov (United States)

Ouedraogo, B. I.

This research addresses the dual challenge faced by Burkina Faso engineers to design sustainable low-energy cost public buildings and domestic dwellings while still providing the required thermal comfort under warmer temperature conditions caused by climate change. It was found base don climate change SRES scenario A2 that predicted mean temperature in Burkina Faso will increase by 2oC between 2010 and 2050. Therefore, in order to maintain a thermally comfortable 25oC inside public buildings, the projected annual energy consumption for cooling load will increase by 15%, 36% and 100% respectively for the period between 2020 to 2039, 2040 to 2059 and 2070 to 2089 when compared to the control case. It has also been found that a 1% increase in population growth will result in a 1.38% and 2.03% increase in carbon emission from primary energy consumption and future electricity consumption respectively. Furthermore, this research has investigated possible solutions for adaptation to the severe climate change and population growth impact on energy demand in Burkina Faso. Shading devices could potentially reduce the cooling load by up to 40%. Computer simulation programming of building energy consumption and a field study has shown that adobe houses have the potential of significantly reducing energy demand for cooling and offer a formidable method for climate change adaptation. Based on the Net Present Cost, hybrid photovoltaic (PV) and Diesel generator energy production configuration is the most cost effective local electricity supply system, for areas without electricity at present, with a payback time of 8 years when compared to diesel generator stand-alone configuration. It is therefore a viable solution to increase electricity access to the majority of the population.

The energy demand in the Narino Department

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, UPME

2000-01-01

In the object of making a first approach of regional energy requirements analysis and the good way of satisfying them, the UPME undertook a global energy study for the Narino Department. In this study (UPME 1999) was carried out an analysis of the energy demand and of the socioeconomic factors that determine it; they were also studied the consumptions and the current energy offer and the alternatives of future evolution, with the purpose of having the basic tools of a departmental energy plan. The present article refers specifically to the analysis of the demand and it seeks to show the readers the complexity and the volume of necessary information to carry out the demand studies. They are multiple factors that determine the energy demand in the Narino Department. The size, growth populations, geographical distribution and cultural characteristic, the border condition, the faulty infrastructure of communications, the agricultural economic structure and the low entrance per capita

Future energy demand in Laos. Scenario alternatives for development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luukkanen, J.; Kouphokham, K.; Panula-Ontto, J. [and others

2012-07-01

Energy production in Laos is still dominated by traditional fuels. Fuelwood in the main source of energy and most of the energy is consumed at households for cooking. Increase in the number of cars and motorbikes is rapidly increasing the use of imported petroleum products. Electrification is one of the central targets of the Lao government. The electrification rate has increased fast in Laos and in the year 2010 over 70 % households had electricity supply. The target is to have 90 % access to electricity by the year 2020. The World Bank regards the electrification of Lao PDR to be a success story. This paper deals with the present and future energy consumption in Laos. First the historical trends of energy use in different sectors are analysed. The future scenarios are constructed using LaoLinda model. Four different future alternative development paths are analysed using the model results. The energy use data source for the analysis is from the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) of Lao PDR. Economic and other data is from the Department of Statistics of Lao PDR.

Future World Energy Demand and Supply: China and India and the Potential Role of Fusion Energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheffield, John

2005-01-01

Massive increases in energy demand are projected for countries such as China and India over this century e.g., many 100s of megawatts of electricity (MWe) of additional electrical capacity by 2050, with more additions later, are being considered for each of them. All energy sources will be required to meet such a demand. Fortunately, while world energy demand will be increasing, the world is well endowed with a variety of energy resources. However, their distribution does not match the areas of demand and there are many environmental issues.Such geopolitical issues affect China and India and make it important for them to be able to deploy improved technologies. In this regard, South Korea is an interesting example of a country that has developed the capability to do advanced technologies - such as nuclear power plants. International collaborations in developing these technologies, such as the International Thermonuclear Reactor (ITER), may be important in all energy areas. Fusion energy is viewed as an interesting potential option in these three countries

The development of sectoral final and basic energy demand in the Federal Republic of Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reents, H.

1977-08-01

The detailed knowledge of the demand structures and their determining factors is an important precondition for estimating the possible developments of future energy demand. In this report the past developments of the final and basic energy demand in the different demand categories private households, commercial sector, industry and transportation will be analyzed. The demonstrated relations are the basis for a final energy demand model. With the help of this model a scenario of the future development of the final energy demand in the different sectors will be built. It is the aim of this scenario to show, how alternative actions (insulation, gas-heat pump) influence the future development of the final energy demand. (orig.) [de

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 3: End-Use Electricity Demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hostick, D.; Belzer, D.B.; Hadley, S.W.; Markel, T.; Marnay, C.; Kintner-Meyer, M.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Exploring energy consumption and demand in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fan, Ying; Xia, Yan

2012-01-01

China has been experiencing industrialization and urbanization since reform and opening of its economy in 1978. Energy consumption in the country has featured issues such as a coal-dominated energy mix, low energy efficiency and high emissions. Thus, it is of great importance to explore the factors driving the increase in energy consumption in the past two decades and estimate the potential for decreasing energy demands in the future. In this paper a hybrid energy input–output model is used to decompose driving factors to identify how these factors impact changes in energy intensity. A modified RAS approach is applied to project energy requirements in a BAU scenario and an alternative scenario. The results show that energy input mix, industry structure and technology improvements have major influences on energy demand. Energy demand in China will continue to increase at a rapid rate if the economy develops as in the past decades, and is projected to reach 4.7 billion tce in 2020. However, the huge potential for a decrease cannot be neglected, since growth could be better by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure and enhancing technology improvements. The total energy demand could be less than 4.0 billion tce in 2020. -- Highlights: ► In this paper a hybrid energy input–output model is used to decompose driving factors to China’s energy intensity change. ► A modified RAS approach is applied to project energy requirements in China. ► The results show that energy input mix, industry structure and technology improvements have major influences on energy demand. ► Energy demand in China will reach 4.7 billion ton in 2020 if the economy develops as in the past decades. ► There is a huge potential for a decrease of energy demand by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure and enhancing technology improvements.

Can the future, world-wide energy supply be achieved without nuclear energy?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kugeler, K.

1995-01-01

In the future the world-wide energy demand is going to increase considerably. The use of nuclear energy will continuously grow if the demand of climate researchers for a reduction of the world-wide CO 2 emission is fulfilled and if the possible contribution of regenerative energy sources is assessed realistically. In the future a world-wide use of nuclear energy will be realised according to even higher safety standards. The modification of the German Atom Law, which determines the limitation of damage caused to the reactor plant for future reactors fulfils this demand. The efforts in the field of nuclear technical development will concentrate on the proof of the required safety properties. (orig.) [de

Heating and cooling energy demand and related emissions of the German residential building stock under climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olonscheck, Mady; Holsten, Anne; Kropp, Juergen P.

2011-01-01

The housing sector is a major consumer of energy. Studies on the future energy demand under climate change which also take into account future changes of the building stock, renovation measures and heating systems are still lacking. We provide the first analysis of the combined effect of these four influencing factors on the future energy demand for room conditioning of residential buildings and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Germany until 2060. We show that the heating energy demand will decrease substantially in the future. This shift will mainly depend on the number of renovated buildings and climate change scenarios and only slightly on demographic changes. The future cooling energy demand will remain low in the future unless the amount of air conditioners strongly increases. As a strong change in the German energy mix is not expected, the future GHG emissions caused by heating will mainly depend on the energy demand for future heating. - Highlights: → The future heating energy demand of German residential buildings strongly decreases. → Extent of these changes mainly depends on the number of renovated buildings. → Demographic changes will only play a minor role. → Cooling energy demand will remain low in future but with large insecurities. → Germany's 2050 emission targets for the building stock are ambitious.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 3. End-Use Electricity Demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hostick, Donna [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Belzer, David B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Markel, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kintner-Meyer, Michael [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

Demand for oil and energy in developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wolf, C. Jr.; Relles, D.A.; Navarro, J.

1980-05-01

How much of the world's oil and energy supply will the non-OPEC less-developed countries (NOLDCs) demand in the next decade. Will their requirements be small and thus fairly insignificant compared with world demand, or large and relatively important. How will world demand be affected by the economic growth of the NOLDCs. In this report, we try to develop some reasonable forecasts of NOLDC energy demands in the next 10 years. Our focus is mainly on the demand for oil, but we also give some attention to the total commercial energy requirements of these countries. We have tried to be explicit about the uncertainties associated with our forecasts, and with the income and price elasticities on which they are based. Finally, we consider the forecasts in terms of their implications for US policies concerning the NOLDCs and suggest areas of future research on NOLDC energy issues.

2009 reference case scenario : Canadian energy demand and supply to 2020 : an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

The National Energy Board regulates the construction and operation of interprovincial and international oil and gas pipelines and power lines as well as the tolls and tariffs for the pipelines under its jurisdictions. The import and export of natural gas is also regulated by the NEB. The NEB examined the possible energy futures that might unfold for Canadians up to the year 2020. The factors that affect the supply of crude oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, electricity and coal in the short term were examined to determine the outlook for deliverability through 2020. The growing demand for energy was reviewed along with the adequacy of future energy supplies, and related issues of emerging technologies, energy infrastructure and energy exports. This assessment provided separate production outlooks for hydrocarbons, electricity and coal and outlined the key uncertainties to the supply outlook. The likely impact of recent economic, energy and policy trends on energy demand and supply were considered. It was concluded that energy markets in Canada will continue to function well. Energy prices will provide appropriate market signals for the development of energy resources to meet Canadian and export demand. A significant portion of Canadian demand for energy will be met by fossil fuels. However, the demand to move towards greener energy fuels should result in fewer greenhouse gas emissions. 1 tab., 27 figs.

Canada's energy future : 2008 workshop summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

The National Energy Board hosted this Energy Futures Workshop as a follow-up to its report entitled Canada's Energy Future: Reference Case and Scenarios to 2030, which focused on emerging trends in energy supply and demand. Various energy futures that may be available to Canadians up to the year 2030 were examined. This workshop addressed issues regarding the growing demand for energy, the adequacy of future energy supplies, and related issues of greenhouse gas emissions, emerging technologies, energy infrastructure and energy exports. The workshop was attended by 18 experts who presented their diverse views on long-term energy issues. The sessions of the workshop focused on external and key geopolitical issues that will influence Canadian energy markets; the adoption of alternative and emerging sources of energy; outlook for Canadian oil supply, including oil sands development, reservoir quality, and financial, environmental and technological issues; issues in electricity generation and transmission; gas market dynamics; and carbon dioxide capture and storage and the associated benefits and challenges. There was general consensus that global and Canadian energy markets will remain in a state of flux. Crude oil prices are likely to remain high and volatile. The combination of maturing energy resource basins and geopolitical tensions has created uncertainty about future availability and access to global energy resources. 2 figs., 3 appendices

Analysis of Final Energy Demand by Sector in Malaysia using MAED Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, M.; Muhammed Zulfakar Mohd Zolkaffly; Alawiah Musa

2011-01-01

Energy supply security is important in ensuring a long term supply to fulfill the growing energy demand. This paper presents the use of IAEA energy planning tool, Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) to analyze, simulate and compare final energy demand by five different sectors in Malaysia under some assumptions, bounds and restrictions and the outcome can be used for planning of energy supply in future. (author)

Matching energy sources to demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hendry, A.

1979-01-01

Diagrams show the current pattern of energy usage in Scotland; primary energy inputs; the various classes of user; the disposition of input energy in terms of useful and waste energy; an energy flow diagram showing the proportions of primary fuels taken by the various user groups and the proportions of useful energy derived by each. Within the S.S.E.B. area, installed capacity and maximum demand are shown for the present and projected future to the year 2000. A possible energy flow diagram for Scotland in 1996 is shown. The more efficient use of energy is discussed, with particular reference to the use of electricity. The primary energy inputs considered are oil, coal, nuclear, hydro and gas. (U.K.)

Decarbonising the energy intensive basic materials industry through electrification – Implications for future EU electricity demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lechtenböhmer, Stefan; Nilsson, Lars J.; Åhman, Max; Schneider, Clemens

2016-01-01

The need for deep decarbonisation in the energy intensive basic materials industry is increasingly recognised. In light of the vast future potential for renewable electricity the implications of electrifying the production of basic materials in the European Union is explored in a what-if thought-experiment. Production of steel, cement, glass, lime, petrochemicals, chlorine and ammonia required 125 TW-hours of electricity and 851 TW-hours of fossil fuels for energetic purposes and 671 TW-hours of fossil fuels as feedstock in 2010. The resulting carbon dioxide emissions were equivalent to 9% of total greenhouse gas emissions in EU28. A complete shift of the energy demand as well as the resource base of feedstocks to electricity would result in an electricity demand of 1713 TW-hours about 1200 TW-hours of which would be for producing hydrogen and hydrocarbons for feedstock and energy purposes. With increased material efficiency and some share of bio-based materials and biofuels the electricity demand can be much lower. Our analysis suggest that electrification of basic materials production is technically possible but could have major implications on how the industry and the electric systems interact. It also entails substantial changes in relative prices for electricity and hydrocarbon fuels. - Highlights: • Energy intensive basic materials industry has a high share in EU greenhouse gas emissions. • Decarbonising these industries is very important, but still relatively unexplored. • Electrification is possible regarding renewable energy resources and technologies. • Combination with energy and materials efficiency, biofuels and CCS is crucial. • Electrification needs very high amounts of electricity and strong policies.

The energy future to 2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boy de la Tour, X.

1999-01-01

The energy future will continue for a long time to be dominated by fossil fuels, particularly oil and gas, which will still account for over half the energy supply in 202. Between now and then, the increasing share of the developing countries in he demand for energy will significantly alter energy geopolitics

World energy supply and demand and the future of nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lantzke, U.

1977-01-01

The OECD's world energy outlook analyses projected trends in energy damnd and supply for the OECD area and other major global regions to 1985. It provides a brief discussion of trends after 1985. OECD energy consumption is projected to grow more slowly than in the past. Conservation effects will increase efficiency of energy use per unit of economic growth. All domestic energy supplies in the OECD are projected to expand faster than in the past. The relative share of non-fossil energy sources in total production will be almost doubled. Assuming moderate economic growth, existing energy policies and a constnat real price for oil, the outlook's reference case projects OECD oil import at 35 million barrels a day by 1985. This level of import demand, when combined with the import needs of other oil importing areas, could approach the limit of availability of world oil supplies and as a result cause severe disequilibrium in world energy markets. The outlook indicates such severe disruption can be avoided by action to improve the world energy supply and demand balance without impeding economic growth objectives. Strong measures will be required both to conserve energy and to develop new energy supplies. The biggest increment to the OECD's energy supply by 1985 is expected to come from nuclear power. This substantial nuclear contribution will be inevitable and irreplaceable. As a result urgent solutions to problems concerning safety, availability of fuel cycle services, the environment, cost escalation and construction delays will be required

Requirements on future energy supply. Analysis on the demand of future power plant capacity and strategy for a sustainable power utilization in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-08-01

This strategy paper was drawn up with a view to maximum ecological compatibility of pwer plant modernization and sustainable power generation and use. The first part of the paper analyzes the power plants to be decommissioned on a medium-term basis and - against the background of several different scenarios for future power demand - an estimate of power plant capacities required by 2020. The second part describes the goals and concrete requirements of sustainable energy use. In the final part, the available instruments are presented, and those instruments are recommended that will be best suited for making power demand and supply efficient, sustainable and environment-friend.y [de

World energy supply and demand and the future of nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lantzke, U.

1977-01-01

The author discusses the OECD's report ''World Energy Outlook'', which concluded that a severe energy gap could, and probably would, develop by the mid-1980s if present energy policies continue. Should nuclear power fail to make a substantial contribution, this situation is predicted to become even worse. The author states that an energy gap can only be realistically avoided by a combination of (a) deep energy conservation, (b) even greater use of coal, and (c) nuclear power. New energy technologies cannot realistically be expected to make a significant contribution much before the end of the century. Conservation and coal alone, however, will not be sufficient. It is difficult to envisage energy savings of more than 10% without reducing economic activity to a degree that becomes politically unacceptable. Greater use of coal is undoubtedly feasible, but the potential is severely constrained in the medium term for economic, technological and environmental reasons. Nuclear power must also make a significant contribution. However, estimates of OECD nuclear energy supply for 1985 have been scaled drastically downwards during 1976 owing to: uncertainty in the utility sector over future growth in electricity demand; continued, and in some cases increased, opposition to nuclear power; and delays and uncertainties in government nuclear policies and programmes. The author concludes that we cannot afford any further shortfall and we must move urgently to: (a) give strong and unswerving support to thermal nuclear reactor programmes (requiring that governments adopt clear and coherent nuclear policies, taking into account the legitimate concern expressed by the public); (b) develop stable and long-term international arrangements so that the necessary nuclear fuel facilities can be made available on a secure basis for peaceful uses of nuclear power; (c) decide what the real proliferation risk is and agree on action to avoid it; and (d) make renewed and stronger efforts to solve

Energy demand in Mexico, a vision to the future; La demanda energetica en Mexico, una vision al futuro

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Esquivel E, J.; Xolocostli M, J. V., E-mail: jaime.esquivel@inin.gob.mx [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Toluca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

2017-09-15

The energy planning allows to know the current and future energy needs of the country, with the objective of efficiently guaranteeing the supply of energy demand through the diversity of the sources used, promoting the use of clean energies such as nuclear energy. Mexico, by participating in the ARCAL project -Support for the preparation of national energy plans in order to meet energy needs in the countries of the region, making effective use of resources in the medium and long term- has developed the study of energy demand for the period 2015-2050, where, given the socio-economic and technological conditions of the country in 2012, four scenarios are proposed: Decrement al, with decreases in the GDP growth rate and in the production of the manufacturing sector; Incremental, which shows an increase in the GDP growth rate and in the manufacturing sector; Incremental Dual, scenario similar to the Incremental plus an incentive in the service sector and finally, the Tendencial scenario, which corresponds to a typical scenario-business as usual-. The study that concerns this work was developed with the MAED tool and the results that are presented correspond to the energy requirements in each scenario, for the agriculture, construction, mining, manufacturing and transport sectors. (Author)

Austria's Energy Perspectives - It's the Demand Side, Stupid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lechner, H.

2009-01-01

During the last decade Austria made remarkable progress in developing renewable energy sources. But at the same time energy demand has steadily increased so that the share of renewables in the energy mix has remained more or less stable over the years. Rising energy demand and import dependence is also forecast in a business-as-usual scenario for the future. If Austria is to fulfill the EU obligatory target to increase the share of renewables up to 34% in 2020 (recently 25%) and to move on a sustainable, low-carbon track it will have to decrease energy consumption or at least stabilise it at the level of 2005. This requires considerable efforts to boost energy efficiency, especially in the building and transport sector.(author).

Influence of India’s transformation on residential energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The middle income group emerges as the dominant segment by 2030. • Commercial residential energy demand increases 3–4 folds compared to 2010. • Electricity and LPG demand grows above 6% per year in the reference scenario. • India faces the potential of displacing the domination of biomass by 2030. - Abstract: India’s recent macro-economic and structural changes are transforming the economy and bringing significant changes to energy demand behaviour. Life-style and consumption behaviour are evolving rapidly due to accelerated economic growth in recent times. The population structure is changing, thereby offering the country with the potential to reap the population dividend. The country is also urbanising rapidly, and the fast-growing middle class segment of the population is fuelling consumerism by mimicking international life-styles. These changes are likely to have significant implications for energy demand in the future, particularly in the residential sector. Using the end-use approach of demand analysis, this paper analyses how residential energy demand is likely to evolve as a consequence of India’s transformation and finds that by 2030, India’s commercial energy demand in the residential sector can quadruple in the high scenario compared to the demand in 2010. Demand for modern fuels like electricity and liquefied petroleum gas is likely to grow at a faster rate. However, there is a window of opportunity to better manage the evolution of residential demand in India through energy efficiency improvement

Natural gas central to world's future energy mix

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carson, M.M.

1997-01-01

Continued growth in demand for natural gas is one of three pillars around which the energy mix of the future will take shape and upon which energy strategies should be based. The others are consumption efficiency and growth of renewable energy sources. This paper evaluates world energy supply and demand and includes an analysis of world pipeline gas, electricity, and LNG trends. The paper discusses the natural gas resource, proved reserves, reserves growth, gas prices and demand, country demand trends, world energy use, gas pipeline construction, power generation, electricity consumption and prices, and global carbon emissions

The role of nuclear energy for Korean long-term energy supply strategy : application of energy demand-supply model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chae, Kyu Nam

1995-02-01

An energy demand and supply analysis is carried out to establish the future nuclear energy system of Korea in the situation of environmental restriction and resource depletion. Based on the useful energy intensity concept, a long-term energy demand forecasting model FIN2USE is developed to integrate with a supply model. The energy supply optimization model MESSAGE is improved to evaluate the role of nuclear energy system in Korean long-term energy supply strategy. Long-term demand for useful energy used as an exogeneous input of the energy supply model is derived from the trend of useful energy intensity by sectors and energy carriers. Supply-side optimization is performed for the overall energy system linked with the reactor and nuclear fuel cycle strategy. The limitation of fossil fuel resources and the CO 2 emission constraints are reflected as determinants of the future energy system. As a result of optimization of energy system using linear programming with the objective of total discounted system cost, the optimal energy system is obtained with detailed results on the nuclear sector for various scenarios. It is shown that the relative importance of nuclear energy would increase especially in the cases of CO 2 emission constraint. It is concluded that nuclear reactor strategy and fuel cycle strategy should be incorporated with national energy strategy and be changed according to environmental restriction and energy demand scenarios. It is shown that this modelling approach is suitable for a decision support system of nuclear energy policy

Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ou Xunmin; Zhang Xiliang; Chang Shiyan

2010-01-01

The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

The best-mix of power demand and supply. Energy system integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogimoto, Kazuhiko

2012-01-01

In September 2012 after nationwide discussions, Energy and Environmental Council decided 'Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment': (1) Realization of a society not dependent on nuclear power, (2) Realization of green energy revolution, (3) For ensuring stable supply of energy, (4) Bold implementation of reform of electricity power systems and (5) Steady implementation of global warming countermeasures. Energy problem should be considered as supply and demand of whole energy. However, long-term energy problem such as in 2050 should assume global limits of fossil fuel supply and carbon dioxide emission and then in order to realize sustainable demand and supply of energy, maximum deployment of renewable energy power in primary energy and most practicable electrification of final demand for energy conservation should be implemented. Best mix of power and energy demand and supply would be significant to some extent. This article outlined analysis of power demand and supply in a long term, future power technologies and demand side management, and problems of power system operation and their solution, and then described energy system integration to realize power and energy/society best mix. (T. Tanaka)

Energies of the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matthoefer, H.

1977-01-01

This paper outlines the general principles of the energy policy of the Federal Government. The main points of emphasis are stressed, and the limits of energy supply for the ever-growing demand without new options are pointed out. For the future, a reasonable extension of nuclear power is required. Solar energy and energy conservation are no alternatives. The tendency of this papar points to the 2nd amendment of the energy programme of the Federal Government that will soon be published. (UA) 891 UA [de

The future of energy use

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hill, R.; O' Keefe, P.; Snape, C.

1994-12-15

An analysis of the use of different forms of energy and its environmental and social impacts. Giving an overview of the development of different forms of energy provision and patterns of supply and demand, this book shows how enduse applies to energy industries, how the environment and social costs of energy use have to be introduced into energy planning and accounting and the crucial role of efficiency. Case studies will include the transport and building sectors of industrial economies, the use of stoves and woodfuel and agroforestry planning in developing countries. It will then examine the different forms of energy - conventional, nuclear and renewable - concluding by setting out different energy futures and the policy requirements for sustainable futures. (author)

Biomass energy consumption in Nigeria: integrating demand and supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Momoh, S.; Soaga, J.

1999-01-01

The study examined the present and future consumption of biomass energy in Nigeria. Direct consumption of fire wood for domestic purposes is the predominant form of biomass energy consumption. Charcoal plays minot roles in biomass energy supply. The current and expected demand for fuelwood is projected to increase by 399% whereas supply is expected to decrease by 17.2% between 1995 and year 2010. Resource adequacy in terms of planned supply is on the decline. Forest estates which is the only planned strategy for fuelwood and wood production is projected to decline from 6.37 million ha. in 1990 to 2.4 million ha, in year 2010. The possibilities of meeting the fuelwood demand in the future is precarious. Policy measures aimed at increasing forest estates. reduction of loss of forest lands to other uses and encouragement of private forestry are recommended

An energy supply and demand model for South Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silberberg, R.B.

1981-08-01

The topic of this thesis is the development of a model of energy supply and demand in South Africa to project energy flows up to the year 2005 and also to assess the implications of policy actions. In this thesis, a method of determining energy flows taking generally accepted economic and technological factors into account is developed. Also, various situations are tested, in order to determine the following: 1) Likely energy flows up to 2005, as well as possible upper and lower bounds. 2) Significant final demand sectors, in terms of energy requirements. 3) The effects of changes in supply and demand sector technology. 4) The implications of policy options such as enengy independence. Owing to the different characteristics of the energy supply and demand sectors, the following techniques were used: 1) Energy demand sectors. 2) Energy supply sectors. 3) Supply/demand equilibration 4) Output. Through successive runs of the model, the policy-maker is able to indentify likely values of energy flows, as well as upper and lower boundaries given the described set of assumptions. The following statements are made as conclusions: 1) The growth rate of domectic coal demand is likely to be 5,5 % per annum up to 2005. 2) The Iron and Steel industry and the Mining industry have the greatest potential effect on coal demand. 3) The coal growth rate stated above implies certain improvements in coal to liquid fuel and electricity conversion. 4) The coal demands of oil energy independence are listed, highlighting the fact that major coal exports and energy independence may be mutually exclusive. Other conclusions regarding capital requirements, oil imports and coking coal utilization are described. The model permits a consistent and inteqrated forecast of national energy flows to be made, providing the policymaker with projections that include the effects of uncertainty with regard to future technologies and economic output. This feature is crucial for policy formulation

The modelling of future energy scenarios for Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kwon, Pil Seok

2014-01-01

within a time frame of two hours and approx. 7% of the electricity demand can be moved within a time frame of 24 hours. The system benefit at the assessed amount of flexible demand is limited however. Results from the other analysis indicate that in order to have a significant impact on the energy system...... performance, more than a quarter of the classic electricity demand would need to be flexible within a month, which is highly unlikely to happen. For the investigation of the energy system model, EnergyPLAN, which is used for two scenario analyses, two questions are asked; “what is the value of future...... for the important but uncertain areas biomass and flexible demand are performed. Thirdly, modelling-related issues are investigated with a focus on the effect of future forecasting assumption and differences between a predefined priority order and order determined by given efficiencies and constraints...

Development of world energy requirements and ways of meeting the demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valvoda, Z.

1977-01-01

The development is described of the past and future energy demand and the possibility is discussed of using fossil and non-fossil energy sources in meeting the needs of population. The use of alternative energy sources is recommended to reduce the fossil fuel demand, such as solar energy, water energy, geothermal energy, tidal energy, wind energy, sea wave energy, ocean temperature gradients, photosynthesis, glacier energy and nuclear fission energy. The comparison of the possible use of the respective types of energy sources shows that only geothermal energy, tidal energy and the nuclear energy produced by thermal reactors have undergone the whole developmental stage and are industrially applicable. (Oy)

Energy supply and demand in Canada and export demand for Canadian energy, 1966--1990

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1969-01-01

This report presents the results of a National Energy Board staff study of energy supply and demand in Canada to 1990. The study covers all forms of energy in Canada, and probable sources of supply for serving both indigenous and export demand for Canadian energy. Energy demand by market sector (residential and commercial, industrial, and transportation) is discussed in Chapters III, IV and V, respectively. Chapters VI, VII, VIII, and IX deal with supply prospects for Canadian petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity serving indigenous and export markets. A summary of the report is contained in Chapter II. Appendix A reviews general assumptions including those relating to population and household growth. Appendix B summarizes the methodology used for estimating residential energy demand, automobile transportation energy demand, and electricity supply. Appendix C includes a number of tables which provide detailed information. A list of definitions and abbreviations follows the Table of Contents.

Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glanc, Z.; Kerner, A.

1997-01-01

Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs

Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glanc, Z; Kerner, A [Energy Information Centre, Warsaw (Poland)

1997-09-01

Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs.

Fuel cells and electrolysers in future energy systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mathiesen, Brian Vad

be considered which fuels such technologies can utilise and how these fuels can be distributed. Natural gas is not an option in future renewable energy systems and the de‐ mand for gaseous fuels, such as biogas or syngas, will increase significantly. Hence, fuel cell CHP plants represent a more fuel...... of transport, battery electric vehicles are more suitable than hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in future energy system. Battery electric ve‐ hicles may, for a part of the transport demand, have limitations in their range. Hybrid tech‐ nologies may provide a good option, which can combine the high fuel efficiency......Efficient fuel cells and electrolysers are still at the development stage. In this dissertation, future developed fuel cells and electrolysers are analysed in future renewable energy sys‐ tems. Today, most electricity, heat and transport demands are met by combustion tech‐ nologies. Compared...

US residential energy demand and energy efficiency: A stochastic demand frontier approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Filippini, Massimo; Hunt, Lester C.

2012-01-01

This paper estimates a US frontier residential aggregate energy demand function using panel data for 48 ‘states’ over the period 1995 to 2007 using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Utilizing an econometric energy demand model, the (in)efficiency of each state is modeled and it is argued that this represents a measure of the inefficient use of residential energy in each state (i.e. ‘waste energy’). This underlying efficiency for the US is therefore observed for each state as well as the relative efficiency across the states. Moreover, the analysis suggests that energy intensity is not necessarily a good indicator of energy efficiency, whereas by controlling for a range of economic and other factors, the measure of energy efficiency obtained via this approach is. This is a novel approach to model residential energy demand and efficiency and it is arguably particularly relevant given current US energy policy discussions related to energy efficiency.

The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Yophy; Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey; Peng, Chieh-Yu

2011-01-01

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research highlights: → The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. → Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO 2 emission. → The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. → Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. → Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruth, Matthias; Lin, A.-C.

2006-01-01

This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature-energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state

Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruth, Matthias [Environmental Policy Program, School of Public Policy, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20782 (United States)]. E-mail: mruth1@umd.edu; Lin, A.-C. [Environmental Policy Program, School of Public Policy, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20782 (United States)

2006-11-15

This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature-energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state.

The Impact of Economic Parameter Uncertainty Growth on Regional Energy Demand Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga Vasilyevna Mazurova

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the forecasting studies based on the energy demand and prices in the region in terms of the complex interconnections between economy (and energy and the growth of uncertainty of the future development of the country and territories. The authors propose a methodological approach, which combines the assessment of the price elasticity of energy demand with the optimization of energy and fuel regional supply. In this case, the price elasticity of demand is determined taking into account the comparison of cost-effectiveness of using different types of fuel and energy by different consumers. The originality of the proposed approach consists in simulating the behaviour of suppliers’ (energy companies and large customers’ (power plants, boiler rooms, industry, transport, population depending on energy price changes, the existing and new technologies, energy-saving activities and restrictions on fuel supplies. To take into account the uncertainty of future economic and energy conditions, some parameters such as prospective technical and economic parameters, price, technological parameters are set as the intervals of possible values with different probability levels. This approach allows making multivariate studies with different combinations of the expected conditions and receiving as a result the range of the projected values of studied indicators. The multivariate calculations show that the fuel demand has a nonlinear dependence on the consumer characteristics, pricing, projection horizon, and the nature of the future conditions uncertainty. The authors have shown that this effect can be significant and should be considered in the forecasts of the development of fuel and energy sector. The methodological approach and quantitative evaluation can be used to improve the economic and energy development strategies of the country and regions

Modelling energy demand in the buildings sector within the EU

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O Broin, Eoin

2012-11-01

In the on-going effort within the EU to tackle greenhouse gas emissions and secure future energy supplies, the buildings sector is often referred to as offering a large potential for energy savings. The aim of this thesis is to produce scenarios that highlight the parameters that affect the energy demands and thus potentials for savings of the building sector. Top-down and bottom-up approaches to modelling energy demand in EU buildings are applied in this thesis. The top-down approach uses econometrics to establish the historical contribution of various parameters to energy demands for space and water heating in the residential sectors of four EU countries. The bottom-up approach models the explicit impact of trends in energy efficiency improvement on total energy demand in the EU buildings stock. The two approaches are implemented independently, i.e., the results from the top-down studies do not feed into those from the bottom-up studies or vice versa. The explanatory variables used in the top-down approach are: energy prices; heating degree days, as a proxy for outdoor climate; a linear time trend, as a proxy for technology development; and the lag of energy demand, as a proxy for inertia in the system. In this case, inertia refers to the time it takes to replace space and water heating systems in reaction to price changes. The analysis gives long-term price elasticities of demand as follows: for France, -0.17; for Italy, -0.35; for Sweden, -0.27; and for the UK, -0.35. These results reveal that the price elasticity of demand for space and water heating is inelastic in each of these cases. Nonetheless, scenarios created for the period up to 2050 using these elasticities and an annual price increase of 3 % show that demand can be reduced by more than 1 % per year in France and Sweden and by less than 1 % per year in Italy and the UK. In the bottom-up modelling, varying rates for conversion efficiencies, heating standards for new buildings, end-use efficiency, and

Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yan Xiaoyu; Crookes, Roy J.

2009-01-01

Rapid growth of road vehicles, private vehicles in particular, has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand and imports, which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices, and a major contributor to China's GHG emission increase. This paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures. A detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector. The 'Business as Usual' scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The 'Best Case' scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control, fuel economy regulation, promoting diesel and gas vehicles, fuel tax and biofuel promotion, are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The total reduction potentials in the 'Best Case' scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated

Nuclear Energy - Hydrogen Production - Fuel Cell: A Road Towards Future China's Sustainable Energy Strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhiwei Zhou

2006-01-01

Sustainable development of Chinese economy in 21. century will mainly rely on self-supply of clean energy with indigenous natural resources. The burden of current coal-dominant energy mix and the environmental stress due to energy consumptions has led nuclear power to be an indispensable choice for further expanding electricity generation capacity in China and for reducing greenhouse effect gases emission. The application of nuclear energy in producing substitutive fuels for road transportation vehicles will also be of importance in future China's sustainable energy strategy. This paper illustrates the current status of China's energy supply and the energy demand required for establishing a harmonic and prosperous society in China. In fact China's energy market faces following three major challenges, namely (1) gaps between energy supply and demand; (2) low efficiency in energy utilization, and (3) severe environmental pollution. This study emphasizes that China should implement sustainable energy development policy and pay great attention to the construction of energy saving recycle economy. Based on current forecast, the nuclear energy development in China will encounter a high-speed track. The demand for crude oil will reach 400-450 million tons in 2020 in which Chinese indigenous production will remain 180 million tons. The increase of the expected crude oil will be about 150 million tons on the basis of 117 million tons of imported oil in 2004 with the time span of 15 years. This demand increase of crude oil certainly will influence China's energy supply security and to find the substitution will be a big challenge to Chinese energy industry. This study illustrates an analysis of the market demands to future hydrogen economy of China. Based on current status of technology development of HTGR in China, this study describes a road of hydrogen production with nuclear energy. The possible technology choices in relation to a number of types of nuclear reactors are

An overview of the energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lavergne, R.

2009-01-01

According to IEA the world demand for energy is likely to grow by 45% from now to 2030 if today's tendency is extrapolated and coal would represent the third of this energy increase. The world CO 2 releases might have grown by 55% in 2030 compared to today's releases. Today at the world scale, the sector that generates most greenhouse effect gases is the energy production (26%) followed by industry (19%). France's strategy concerning climate change and energy policy is recalled and fits with European Union's action plan. This action plan in the energy sector follows 6 axes: -) the setting of an European market of energy, -) +20% in energy efficiency by 2020, -) 20% of renewable energies in the energy mix by 2020, -) the development of a European technology for a low carbon future, -) the development of nuclear energy, and -) The setting of a European foreign energy policy. (A.C.)

Renewable energy: GIS-based mapping and modelling of potentials and demand

Science.gov (United States)

Blaschke, Thomas; Biberacher, Markus; Schardinger, Ingrid.; Gadocha, Sabine; Zocher, Daniela

2010-05-01

Worldwide demand of energy is growing and will continue to do so for the next decades to come. IEA has estimated that global primary energy demand will increase by 40 - 50% from 2003 to 2030 (IEA, 2005) depending on the fact whether currently contemplated energy policies directed towards energy-saving and fuel-diversification will be effectuated. The demand for Renewable Energy (RE) is undenied but clear figures and spatially disaggregated potentials for the various energy carriers are very rare. Renewable Energies are expected to reduce pressures on the environment and CO2 production. In several studies in Germany (North-Rhine Westphalia and Lower Saxony) and Austria we studied the current and future pattern of energy production and consumption. In this paper we summarize and benchmark different RE carriers, namely wind, biomass (forest and non-forest, geothermal, solar and hydro power. We demonstrate that GIS-based scalable and flexible information delivery sheds new light on the prevailing metaphor of GIS as a processing engine serving needs of users more on demand rather than through ‘maps on stock'. We compare our finding with those of several energy related EU-FP7 projects in Europe where we have been involved - namely GEOBENE, REACCESS, ENERGEO - and demonstrate that more and more spatial data will become available together with tools that allow experts to do their own analyses and to communicate their results in ways which policy makers and the public can readily understand and use as a basis for their own actions. Geoportals in combination with standardised geoprocessing today supports the older vision of an automated presentation of data on maps, and - if user privileges are given - facilities to interactively manipulate these maps. We conclude that the most critical factor in modelling energy supply and demand remain the economic valuation of goods and services, especially the forecast of future end consumer energy costs.

The role of hydropower in meeting Turkey's electric energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuksek, Omer; Komurcu, Murat Ihsan; Yuksel, Ibrahim; Kaygusuz, Kamil

2006-01-01

The inherent technical, economic and environmental benefits of hydroelectric power, make it an important contributor to the future world energy mix, particularly in the developing countries. These countries, such as Turkey, have a great and ever-intensifying need for power and water supplies and they also have the greatest remaining hydro potential. From the viewpoint of energy sources such as petroleum and natural gas, Turkey is not a rich country; but it has an abundant hydropower potential to be used for generation of electricity and must increase hydropower production in the near future. This paper deals with policies to meet the increasing electricity demand for Turkey. Hydropower and especially small hydropower are emphasized as Turkey's renewable energy sources. The results of two case studies, whose results were not taken into consideration in calculating Turkey's hydro electric potential, are presented. Turkey's small hydro power potential is found to be an important energy source, especially in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The results of a study in which Turkey's long-term demand has been predicted are also presented. According to the results of this paper, Turkey's hydro electric potential can meet 33-46% of its electric energy demand in 2020 and this potential may easily and economically be developed

Energy demand patterns

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoffmann, L; Schipper, L; Meyers, S; Sathaye, J; Hara, Y

1984-05-01

This report brings together three papers on energy demand presented at the Energy Research Priorities Seminar held in Ottawa on 8-10 August 1983. The first paper suggests a framework in which energy demand studies may be organized if they are to be useful in policy-making. Disaggregation and the analysis of the chain of energy transformations are possible paths toward more stable and reliable parameters. The second paper points to another factor that leads to instability in sectoral parameters, namely a changeover from one technology to another; insofar as technologies producing a product (or service) vary in their energy intensity, a technological shift will also change the energy intensity of the product. Rapid technological change is characteristic of some sectors in developing countries, and may well account for the high aggregate GDP-elasticities of energy consumption observed. The third paper begins with estimates of these elasticities, which were greater than one for all the member countries of the Asian Development Bank in 1961-78. The high elasticities, together with extreme oil dependence, made them vulnerable to the drastic rise in the oil price after 1973. The author distinguishes three diverging patterns of national experience. The oil-surplus countries naturally gained from the rise in the oil price. Among oil-deficit countries, the newly industrialized countries expanded their exports so rapidly that the oil crisis no longer worried them. For the rest, balance of payments adjustments became a prime concern of policy. Whether they dealt with the oil bill by borrowing, by import substitution, or by demand restraint, the impact of energy on their growth was unmistakable. The paper also shows why energy-demand studies, and energy studies in general, deserve to be taken seriously. 16 refs., 4 figs., 18 tabs.

Current status and future projections of LNG demand and supplies: A global prospective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, Satish; Kwon, Hyouk-Tae; Choi, Kwang-Ho; Hyun Cho, Jae; Lim, Wonsub; Moon, Il

2011-01-01

An unceasing growth of gas consumption in domestic households, industry, and power plants has gradually turned natural gas into a major source of energy. Main drivers in this development are the technical and economic advantages of natural gas. It is a clean, versatile, and easily controllable fuel. On this basis, natural gas is often considered the form of energy that will be the 'bridging fuel' to a sustainable energy system, sometime after 2050. Unlike other main sources of energy, such as oil and coal, gas is not traded on an actual world market. This paper provides an overview on demand and supplies of natural gas (LNG) in the past as a function of gas prices, gas technology (gas sweetening, liquefaction, shipping and re-gasification), and gas market and how they have changed recently. It also discusses the likely developments in global LNG demand for the period to the year 2030. - Highlights: → This study provides an overview on demand and supplies of LNG in the past and future. → Outlook for LNG demand in Asia pacific region is very robust. → In past decade the shale gas production in USA has increased fivefold. → The future of European gas supply depends largely on the geopolitical environments. → Within the gas sector LNG is playing an ever increasing role in gas transportation.

Energy demand projections based on an uncertain dynamic system modeling approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dong, S.

2000-01-01

Today, China has become the world's second largest pollution source of CO 2 . Owing to coal-based energy consumption, it is estimated that 85--90% of the SO 2 and CO 2 emission of China results from coal use. With high economic growth and increasing environmental concerns, China's energy consumption in the next few decades has become an issue of active concern. Forecasting of energy demand over long periods, however, is getting more complex and uncertain. It is believed that the economic and energy systems are chaotic and nonlinear. Traditional linear system modeling, used mostly in energy demand forecasts, therefore, is not a useful approach. In view of uncertainty and imperfect information about future economic growth and energy development, an uncertain dynamic system model, which has the ability to incorporate and absorb the nature of an uncertain system with imperfect or incomplete information, is developed. Using the model, the forecasting of energy demand in the next 25 years is provided. The model predicts that China's energy demand in 2020 will be about 2,700--3,000 Mtce, coal demand 3,500 Mt, increasing by 128% and 154%, respectively, compared with that of 1995

Saving money vs investing money: Do energy ratings influence consumer demand for energy efficient goods?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panzone, Luca A.

2013-01-01

The article analyses economic barriers leading to the energy efficiency gap in the market for energy-using products by observing several million transactions in the UK over two years. The empirical exercise estimates AIDS models for refrigerators, washing machines, TVs, and light bulbs. Results indicate that market barriers are crucial in the demand for energy efficient options, and consumer response to changes in appliance prices, total expenditures, and energy prices depends on the possibility of behavioural adjustments in consumption. In contrast with the induced innovation hypothesis, current electricity prices can fail to induce innovation because of their short-term impact on disposable income, while consumers invest in energy efficiency when expecting electricity prices to rise in the future. - Highlights: • The article analyses economic barriers to energy efficiency in the UK. • Data refers to 2-year sales of refrigerators, washing machines, TV, and light bulbs. • Demand parameters by efficiency rating are estimated from four AIDS models. • Future (not present) electricity prices induce investments in energy efficiency. • Behavioural efficiency adjustments explain differences in market response

How a future energy world could look?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ewert M.

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The future energy system will change significantly within the next years as a result of the following Mega Trends: de-carbonization, urbanization, fast technology development, individualization, glocalization (globalization and localization and changing demographics. Increasing fluctuating renewable production will change the role of non-renewable generation. Distributed energy from renewables and micro generation will change the direction of the energy flow in the electricity grids. Production will not follow demand but demand has to follow production. This future system is enabled by the fast technical development of information and communication technologies which will be present in the entire system. In this paper the results of a comprehensive analysis with different scenarios is summarized. Tools were used like the analysis of policy trends in the European countries, modelling of the European power grid, modelling of the European power markets and the analysis of technology developments with cost reduction potentials. With these tools the interaction of the main actors in the energy markets like conventional generation and renewable generation, grid transport, electricity storage including new storage options from E-Mobility, Power to Gas, Compressed Air Energy storage and demand side management were considered. The potential application of technologies and investments in new energy technologies were analyzed within existing frameworks and markets as well as new business models in new markets with different frameworks. In the paper the over all trend of this analysis is presented by describing a potential future energy world. This world represents only one of numerous options with comparable characteristics.

How a future energy world could look?

Science.gov (United States)

Ewert, M.

2012-10-01

The future energy system will change significantly within the next years as a result of the following Mega Trends: de-carbonization, urbanization, fast technology development, individualization, glocalization (globalization and localization) and changing demographics. Increasing fluctuating renewable production will change the role of non-renewable generation. Distributed energy from renewables and micro generation will change the direction of the energy flow in the electricity grids. Production will not follow demand but demand has to follow production. This future system is enabled by the fast technical development of information and communication technologies which will be present in the entire system. In this paper the results of a comprehensive analysis with different scenarios is summarized. Tools were used like the analysis of policy trends in the European countries, modelling of the European power grid, modelling of the European power markets and the analysis of technology developments with cost reduction potentials. With these tools the interaction of the main actors in the energy markets like conventional generation and renewable generation, grid transport, electricity storage including new storage options from E-Mobility, Power to Gas, Compressed Air Energy storage and demand side management were considered. The potential application of technologies and investments in new energy technologies were analyzed within existing frameworks and markets as well as new business models in new markets with different frameworks. In the paper the over all trend of this analysis is presented by describing a potential future energy world. This world represents only one of numerous options with comparable characteristics.

Autonomous efficiency improvement or income elasticity of energy demand: Does it matter?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Webster, Mort; Paltsev, Sergey; Reilly, John

2008-01-01

Observations of historical energy consumption, energy prices, and income growth in industrial economies exhibit a trend in improving energy efficiency even when prices are constant or falling. Two alternative explanations of this phenomenon are: a productivity change that uses less energy and a structural change in the economy in response to rising income. It is not possible to distinguish among these from aggregate data, and economic energy models for forecasting emissions simulate one, as an exogenous time trend, or the other, as energy demand elasticity with respect to income, or both processes for projecting energy demand into the future. In this paper, we ask whether and how it matters which process one uses for projecting energy demand and carbon emissions. We compare two versions of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, one using a conventional efficiency time trend approach and the other using an income elasticity approach. We demonstrate that while these two versions yield equivalent projections in the near-term, that they diverge in two important ways: long-run projections and under uncertainty in future productivity growth. We suggest that an income dependent approach may be preferable to the exogenous approach

Some ideas on the energy demand in the 21. century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frot, J.

2007-01-01

The author reviews different scenarios to quench the worldwide demand for energy. 4 scenarios have been studied for the 2000-2100 period. The scenarios differ on the importance given to concepts like: -) the behaviour towards future generations, -) the solidarity between rich and poor countries, -) the acknowledgement of the climate change, -) the risk of energy dearth, -) the improvement of energy efficiency, -) the necessity of gross national product growth, -) the public acceptance of nuclear power, and -) CO 2 sequestration. One of the scenarios is extremely courageous: politicians and population are aware of the great problems that are looming and take the right decisions quite early. This scenario leads to a demand of 18 Gtep/year in 2100. In the worst scenario people are reluctant to any change in their way to use energy, this scenario leads to a demand of 49 Gtep/year

Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ou Xunmin, E-mail: oxm07@mails.tsinghua.edu.c [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang Xiliang, E-mail: zhang_xl@tsinghua.edu.c [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Chang Shiyan [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

2010-08-15

The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport. Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ou, Xunmin [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Xiliang; Chang, Shiyan [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

2010-08-15

The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology. (author)

Three solar urban futures: characterization of a future community under three energy-supply scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Milne, M; Adelson, M; Corwin, R

1979-10-01

This study examines a hypothetical city of 100,000 people in the year 2025 based on three initially given energy-supply scenarios: Future 1 specifying approximately 6% of the city's demand being met by solar technologies; Future 2 specifying about 25%; and Future 3 seeking maximum use of solar technologies. These three versions of the hypothetical city are to be identical in terms of population, goods and services produced, and energy demand. Their differences are compared in terms of physical layout, environmental quality, socio-economics, and quality of life. It is concluded that in Future 1 and Future 2, the city's residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can easily meet the on-site energy-collection requirements of the given supply scenarios. In Future 3, the Solar City, the residential sector can be totally energy self-sufficient (collecting all needed energy on-site), and the commercial sector can collect 59.7% of its energy requirement. Passive design of buildings plays a large part in these results. The industrial sector can collect on-site only 18.2% of its energy needs. In what is called Future 3A, all three sectors of the hypothetical city can be 100% energy self-sufficient if the land area available for various types of solar collectors is increased 34.5%; the commercial sector needs 650 additional acres, while the industrial sector needs 2800 acres, provided that moderate temperature energy (250/sup 0/F to 600/sup 0/F) is adequate to meet industrial process needs.

The future energy situation in the Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-01-01

This book is the result of a study into the future energy situation in the Netherlands, performed by the electricity companies in the country. The first five chapters sketch the framework within which energy policy is currently forced to operate. Further technical and physical conditions are considered in the following six chapters, including environmental and safety aspects. A prognosis for energy demand in the Netherlands until the end of the century is presented and five different scenarios are discussed, as means of supplying this demand. Nuclear energy is one of the sources considered throughout the text. (C.F.)

Aggregated Demand Modelling Including Distributed Generation, Storage and Demand Response

OpenAIRE

Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Hill, David J.; Verbic, Gregor

2014-01-01

It is anticipated that penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems will increase further in the next decades mainly due to environmental issues. In the long term of several decades, which we refer to in terms of the future grid (FG), balancing between supply and demand will become dependent on demand actions including demand response (DR) and energy storage. So far, FG feasibility studies have not considered these new demand-side developments for modelling future demand. I...

The future of energy use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lameiras, Fernando Soares

1996-01-01

Humanity will not face shortage of energy, but may face problems with its use, because every energy source has restrictions. Fossil fuels change the climate,nuclear energy increases the radioactivity and can be used to manufacture weapons, solar energy is very scattered, and geothermal energy is yet not well known. Delicate political issues emerge in this scenario. Due to the magnitude of energy used by many countries, isolated energy policies can disturb all planet. This may delay decisions and result in the lack of energy supply, hindering the development of many regions, or in conflict between countries. In this paper, some analyses and considerations are presented about the future of energy use, including some axiologic features. The role of nuclear energy is analysed, because, maybe, for the first time a energy source was target of axiologic issues that have affected the growth of its demand. These issues are yet to be internalized by other energy sources in the future. (author)

Energy demand: Facts and trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chateau, B; Lapillonne, B

1982-01-01

The relationship between economic development and energy demand is investigated in this book. It gives a detailed analysis of the energy demand dynamics in industrialized countries and compares the past evolution of the driving factors behind energy demand by sector and by end-uses for the main OECD countries: residential sector (space heating, water heating, cooking...), tertiary sector, passenger and goods transport by mode, and industry (with particular emphasis on the steel and cement industry). This analysis leads to a more precise understanding of the long-term trends of energy demand; highlighting the influence on these trends of energy prices, especially after the oil price shocks, and of the type of economic development pattern.

Transforming and Building the Future Energy Industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, Vernon

1998-12-31

The petroleum industry is experiencing unprecedented change: increasing competition within a global context, deregulation in the European gas market, technological innovation that will fundamentally alter the economics of the industry. Sustainable Development, the challenge of balancing the Financial, Social and Environmental demands: collectively these demands are fundamentally altering the future shape of the industry. In this presentation the author describes his perspectives on the impact of change on the future shape of the energy industry in the years to come

Transforming and Building the Future Energy Industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, Vernon

1999-12-31

The petroleum industry is experiencing unprecedented change: increasing competition within a global context, deregulation in the European gas market, technological innovation that will fundamentally alter the economics of the industry. Sustainable Development, the challenge of balancing the Financial, Social and Environmental demands: collectively these demands are fundamentally altering the future shape of the industry. In this presentation the author describes his perspectives on the impact of change on the future shape of the energy industry in the years to come

An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Syed Aziz Ur Rehman

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fossil fuel resources. In this study, Pakistan’s energy demand forecast for electricity, natural gas, oil, coal and LPG across all the sectors of the economy have been undertaken. Three different energy demand forecasting methodologies, i.e., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, Holt-Winter and Long-range Energy Alternate Planning (LEAP model were used. The demand forecast estimates of each of these methods were compared using annual energy demand data. The results of this study suggest that ARIMA is more appropriate for energy demand forecasting for Pakistan compared to Holt-Winter model and LEAP model. It is estimated that industrial sector’s demand shall be highest in the year 2035 followed by transport and domestic sectors. The results further suggest that energy fuel mix will change considerably, such that oil will be the most highly consumed energy form (38.16% followed by natural gas (36.57%, electricity (16.22%, coal (7.52% and LPG (1.52% in 2035. In view of higher demand forecast of fossil fuels consumption, this study recommends that government should take the initiative for harnessing renewable energy resources for meeting future energy demand to not only avert huge import bill but also achieving energy security and sustainability in the long run.

Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

Science.gov (United States)

Popescu, I.; Brandimarte, L.; Perera, M. S. U.; Peviani, M.

2012-08-01

La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB), and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040). Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years), whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970-2000) and topographical characteristics of the area. Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy). The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

Monitoring urban transport air pollution and energy demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shabbir, Rabia; Ahmad, Sheikh Saeed [Department of Environmental Sciences, Fatima Jinnah Women University, Rawalpindi (Pakistan)

2010-05-15

A research associated with urban transportation was carried out in Rawalpindi and Islamabad to analyze the status of emission of air pollutants and energy demands. The study included a discussion of past trends and future scenarios in order to reduce the future emissions. A simple model of passenger transport has been developed using computer based software called Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). The LEAP model was used to estimate total energy demand and the vehicular emissions for the base year 2000 and extrapolated till 2030 for the future predictions. Transport database in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, together with fuel consumption values for the vehicle types and emission factors of NO{sub x}, SO{sub 2} and PM{sub 10} corresponding to the actual vehicle types, formed the basis of the transport demand, energy consumption and total emission calculations. Apart from base scenario, the model was run under three alternative scenarios to study the impact of different urban transport policy initiatives that would reduce energy demand and emissions in transport sector of Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The prime objective was to arrive at an optimal transport policy, which limits the future growth of fuel consumption as well as air pollution. (author)

Accounting for asymmetric price responses and underlying energy demand trends in OECD industrial energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adeyemi, Olutomi I.; Hunt, Lester C.

2014-01-01

This paper explores the way technical progress and improvements in energy efficiency are captured when modelling OECD industrial energy demand. The industrial sectors of the developed world involve a number of different practices and processes utilising a range of different technologies. Consequently, given the derived demand nature of energy, it is vital when modelling industrial energy demand that the impact of technical progress is appropriately captured. However, the energy economics literature does not give a clear guide on how this can be achieved; one strand suggests that technical progress is ‘endogenous’ via asymmetric price responses whereas another strand suggests that it is ‘exogenous’. More recently, it has been suggested that potentially there is a role for both ‘endogenous’ technical progress and ‘exogenous’ technical progress and consequently the general model should be specified accordingly. This paper therefore attempts to model OECD industrial energy demand using annual time series data over the period 1962–2010 for 15 OECD countries. Using the Structural Time Series Model framework, the general specifications allow for both asymmetric price responses (for technical progress to impact endogenously) and an underlying energy demand trend (for technical progress and other factors to impact exogenously, but in a non-linear way). The results show that almost all of the preferred models for OECD industrial energy demand incorporate both a stochastic underlying energy demand trend and asymmetric price responses. This gives estimated long-run income elasticities in the range of 0.34 to 0.96; estimated long-run price-maximum elasticities in the range of − 0.06 to − 1.22; estimated long-run price-recovery elasticities in the range of 0.00 to − 0.27; and estimated long-run price-cut elasticities in the range of 0.00 to − 0.18. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that when modelling industrial energy demand there is a place for �

Hydropower and the world's energy future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-11-01

The potential role of hydropower in the context of world-wide demographic growth and increasing demand for energy, and the benefits inherent in hydroelectric power in comparison with other energy options are discussed. Environmental and social impacts, and examples of mitigation measures are reviewed. Recommendations regarding best practices in the future development of hydroelectric power projects proposed

Expected Rates of Renewable Energy Sources in Meeting of Energy Demands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ferenc Kovács

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Taking the expected growth of the world’s population and the estimated technological development and increase in living standards into account, the paper forecasts energy demands. On the basis of the actual production data of 380-400 EJ.year-1 in 2000 and data in publications, the author assumes the total energy demand to be 750-800 EJ.year-1 for 2030, 600-1,000 EJ.year-1 for 2050 and 900-3,600 EJ.year-1 for 2100. The author analyses the appearance of the different energy types in the history of mankind giving the specific heat content and heating value of the different fuels. The environmental advantages, disadvantages, technical and economic limits of application involved in the use of primary renewable energy sources are also dealt with. The analysis of the data in the different prognoses in publications gives the result that fossil fuels will meet 84-85 % of the total energy demand until 2030 in the foreseeable future. In 2050, the fossil rate may be 50-70 % and the rate of renewables may amount to 20-40 %. In 2100, the maximum fossil rate may be 40-50 % with a 30-60 % maximum rate of renewables. On the basis of the results of investigation, the general conclusion may be that the realistically exploitable amount of renewable energy sources is not so unlimitedly high as many suppose. Therefore, it is an illusion to expect that the replacement or substitution of mineral fuels and nuclear energy can be solved relying solely on renewable energies.

The energy issue. Demand and potentials, utilization, risks, costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heinloth, K.

1997-01-01

Will the demand for energy be growing or decreasing in future? How are prosperity and energy consumption linked up? How can the CO 2 reduction target announced at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro be achieved? What is the price for ''''benign'''' energy as compared to ''''malignant'''' energy? What is the future contribution to energy supplies that can be expected from renewable energy sources? What are the good and the evil aspects of nuclear energy? These are questions that will sooner or later concern us all, and in any case when it comes to paying the bill for our present squandering. The author Klaus Heinloth, a renown expert in this field, presents with this book a scientifically well-founded and unbiased analysis and source of information that may serve politicians as a basis for objective debates about the future energy policy. Provided with a generous grant by the Heraeus foundation, the author was free to pursue his studies and inquiries independent of industry and relevant associations, and collect, evaluate and analyse the required information. (orig./CB) [de

Understanding errors in EIA projections of energy demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fischer, Carolyn; Herrnstadt, Evan; Morgenstern, Richard [Resources for the Future, 1616 P St. NW, Washington, DC 20036 (United States)

2009-08-15

This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to mid-term projections of energy demand. Based on analysis of the EIA's 22-year projection record, we find a fairly modest but persistent tendency to underestimate total energy demand by an average of 2 percent per year after controlling for projection errors in gross domestic product, oil prices, and heating/cooling degree days. For 14 individual fuels/consuming sectors routinely reported by the EIA, we observe a great deal of directional consistency in the errors over time, ranging up to 7 percent per year. Electric utility renewables, electric utility natural gas, transportation distillate, and residential electricity show significant biases on average. Projections for certain other sectors have significant unexplained errors for selected time horizons. Such independent evaluation can be useful for validating analytic efforts and for prioritizing future model revisions. (author)

The role of district heating in future renewable energy systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Henrik; Möller, Bernd; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

2010-01-01

Based on the case of Denmark, this paper analyses the role of district heating in future Renewable Energy Systems. At present, the share of renewable energy is coming close to 20 per cent. From such point of departure, the paper defines a scenario framework in which the Danish system is converted...... to 100 per cent Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in the year 2060 including reductions in space heating demands by 75 per cent. By use of a detailed energy system analysis of the complete national energy system, the consequences in relation to fuel demand, CO2 emissions and cost are calculated for various...... as in a potential future system based 100 per cent on renewable energy....

Analysis of energy demand, and evaluation of energy conservation measures in urban districts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakamura, H.; Yoshida, N.

1994-01-01

Mitsubishi Research Institute has analyzed the energy demand of a typical Japanese city, Yokohama, as well as the distribution of fossil-energy flow, and the final consumption by sectors. It has evaluated the effectiveness of various energy conservation measures, (e.g., cogeneration, electric cars, insulation,...) in countering the global warming trend. This study defines a viable methodology which may be utilized, in the future, in examining the effectiveness of environmental policies. (TEC). 1 tab., 4 figs

Economic modelling of energy services: Rectifying misspecified energy demand functions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunt, Lester C.; Ryan, David L.

2015-01-01

Although it is well known that energy demand is derived, since energy is required not for its own sake but for the energy services it produces – such as heating, lighting, and motive power – energy demand models, both theoretical and empirical, often fail to take account of this feature. In this paper, we highlight the misspecification that results from ignoring this aspect, and its empirical implications – biased estimates of price elasticities and other measures – and provide a relatively simple and empirically practicable way to rectify it, which has a strong theoretical grounding. To do so, we develop an explicit model of consumer behaviour in which utility derives from consumption of energy services rather than from the energy sources that are used to produce them. As we discuss, this approach opens up the possibility of examining many aspects of energy demand in a theoretically sound way that have not previously been considered on a widespread basis, although some existing empirical work could be interpreted as being consistent with this type of specification. While this formulation yields demand equations for energy services rather than for energy or particular energy sources, these are shown to be readily converted, without added complexity, into the standard type of energy demand equation(s) that is (are) typically estimated. The additional terms that the resulting energy demand equations include, compared to those that are typically estimated, highlight the misspecification that is implicit when typical energy demand equations are estimated. A simple solution for dealing with an apparent drawback of this formulation for empirical purposes, namely that information is required on typically unobserved energy efficiency, indicates how energy efficiency can be captured in the model, such as by including exogenous trends and/or including its possible dependence on past energy prices. The approach is illustrated using an empirical example that involves

Guidelines for forecasting energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sonino, T.

1976-11-01

Four methodologies for forecasting energy demand are reviewed here after considering the role of energy in the economy and the analysis of energy use in different economic sectors. The special case of Israel is considered throughout, and some forecasts for energy demands in the year 2000 are presented. An energy supply mix that may be considered feasible is proposed. (author)

Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Popescu

2012-08-01

Full Text Available La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB, and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040. Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years, whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970–2000 and topographical characteristics of the area.

Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy. The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

Growing an emerging energy workforce: forecasting labour demand and gaining access to emerging energy skills

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomsen, V.

2006-01-01

This paper discusses the needs of emerging energies sector in terms of growing an emerging energy workforce, forecasting labour demands and gaining access to emerging energy skills. It will require industrial renewal and innovation and not just selling our resources. It will also require educating ourselves to utilise our own finished products. Conservation is a key element in a sustainable energy future. finally, a market for renewable energy has been established in Canada

The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, Yophy, E-mail: yohuanghaka@gmail.com [Deptartment of Public Finance and Tax Administration, National Taipei College of Business, Taipei Taiwan, 10051 (China); Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey [Deptartment of Economics, Chinese Culture University, Yang-Ming-Shan, Taipei, 11114, Taiwan (China); Peng, Chieh-Yu [Statistics Department, Taoyuan District Court, No. 1 Fazhi Road, Taoyuan City 33053, Taiwan (China)

2011-11-15

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research Highlights: > The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. > Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO{sub 2} emission. > The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. > Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. > Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

Current and future industrial energy service characterizations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krawiec, F.; Thomas, T.; Jackson, F.; Limaye, D.R.; Isser, S.; Karnofsky, K.; Davis, T.D.

1980-10-01

Current and future energy demands, end uses, and cost used to characterize typical applications and resultant services in the industrial sector of the United States and 15 selected states are examined. A review and evaluation of existing industrial energy data bases was undertaken to assess their potential for supporting SERI research on: (1) market suitability analysis, (2) market development, (3) end-use matching, (3) industrial applications case studies, and (4) identification of cost and performance goals for solar systems and typical information requirements for industrial energy end use. In reviewing existing industrial energy data bases, the level of detail, disaggregation, and primary sources of information were examined. The focus was on fuels and electric energy used for heat and power purchased by the manufacturing subsector and listed by 2-, 3-, and 4-digit SIC, primary fuel, and end use. Projections of state level energy prices to 1990 are developed using the energy intensity approach. The effects of federal and state industrial energy conservation programs on future industrial sector demands were assessed. Future end-use energy requirements were developed for each 4-digit SIC industry and were grouped as follows: (1) hot water, (2) steam (212 to 300/sup 0/F, each 100/sup 0/F interval from 300 to 1000/sup 0/F, and greater than 1000/sup 0/F), and (3) hot air (100/sup 0/F intervals). Volume I details the activities performed in this effort.

Integration of renewable and conventional energies. How to design future energy systems?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hellinger, Rolf [Siemens AG, Erlangen (Germany). CT RTC PET

2015-07-01

The worldwide increasing energy demand, especially in the economically emerging countries, and the climate change are a major challenge for the energy supply. One of the most severe challenges is the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions which can also be seen in the planned investment for energy systems. At the same time, energy systems worldwide are in transition, driven by market and technology trends. As a consequence of these trends, the complexity of future energy systems will extremely increase. The paper outlines a new approach for sustainable, reliable and affordable energy systems of the future, based on technologies, available and under development, which combine different forms of energy.

Integration of renewable and conventional energies. How to design future energy systems?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hellinger, Rolf

2015-01-01

The worldwide increasing energy demand, especially in the economically emerging countries, and the climate change are a major challenge for the energy supply. One of the most severe challenges is the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions which can also be seen in the planned investment for energy systems. At the same time, energy systems worldwide are in transition, driven by market and technology trends. As a consequence of these trends, the complexity of future energy systems will extremely increase. The paper outlines a new approach for sustainable, reliable and affordable energy systems of the future, based on technologies, available and under development, which combine different forms of energy.

Long-term forecasts of regional, customer and use-specific energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwarz, Juerg

1999-11-01

In the future the Swiss electricity market will have to contend with changes stemming from market liberalization. The need for instruments to analyze and predict market shares of electricity is greater than ever; tools are also greatly needed to help managers and workers prepare for new beginnings and to reorient customers. The development and application of such an instrument are the object of the present thesis. A computer program produced within the context of this work can, based on an adapted bottom-up model, be used to analyze and predict the energy demand in the supply area of a medium-sized electric utility. Elektra Birseck Muenchenstein was included in the investigation as a representative medium-sized electric utility, and it provided the basis for a supply area. Current energy demand was depicted with a bottom-up approach and different scenarios of future development were calculated using a prognosis horizon of 30 years. For the market segmentation all consumer sectors had to be considered in detail. In addition, 'regionality', 'substitution' and 'customer proximity' factors had to be illustrated in the model, i.e. the regional development in the supply area, the substitution of energy sources -above all natural gas -and the detailed view of large, individual customers. The choice of a bottom-up approach created a demand for a large quantity of data, not all of which were available or could be produced. An additional crucial capability of the computer simulation was the comparison of assumptions and results of the prognoses. The users needed to be able to consider multiple future eventualities if they were to play out different scenarios to the end. Fulfilling these partly divergent criteria in the structural definition of the energy demand model was one of the large challenges of this work. The result of the dissertation is a differentiated prognosis instrument for the supply area of an electric utility. The structure of the suggested solution is

The use of energy in China: Tracing the flow of energy from primary source to demand drivers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, Linwei; Allwood, Julian M.; Cullen, Jonathan M.; Li, Zheng

2012-01-01

We present a map of the transformation of energy in China as a Sankey diagram. After a review of previous work, and a statement of methodology, our main work has been the identification, evaluation, and treatment of appropriate data sources. This data is used to construct the Sankey diagram, in which flows of energy are traced from energy sources through end-use conversion devices, passive systems and final services to demand drivers. The resulting diagram provides a convenient and clear snapshot of existing energy transformations in China which can usefully be compared with a similar global analysis and which emphasises the potential for improvements in energy efficiency in ‘passive systems’. More broadly, it gives a basis for examining and communicating future energy scenarios, including changes to demand, changes to the supply mix, changes in efficiency and alternative provision of existing services. -- Highlights: ► A Sankey Diagram has been created to show the complete picture of energy transformation in China. ► The Diagram traces energy transformations from source to final service. ► The diagram is organised by technologies, enabling prioritisation and allowing future calculation of efficiencies. ► The diagram is contrasted with an equivalent diagram for global energy use. ► Armed with the diagram we can now examine the system-wide consequences of future changes to China's energy system.

The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

Temperature Effect on Energy Demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Young Duk [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-03-01

We provide various estimates of temperature effect for accommodating seasonality in energy demand, particularly natural gas demand. We exploit temperature response and monthly temperature distribution to estimate the temperature effect on natural gas demand. Both local and global smoothed temperature responses are estimated from empirical relationship between hourly temperature and hourly energy consumption data during the sample period (1990 - 1996). Monthly temperature distribution estimates are obtained by kernel density estimation from temperature dispersion within a month. We integrate temperature response and monthly temperature density over all the temperatures in the sample period to estimate temperature effect on energy demand. Then, estimates of temperature effect are compared between global and local smoothing methods. (author). 15 refs., 14 figs., 2 tabs.

Future development of nuclear energy systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-03-01

Nuclear energy development in Japan has passed about 30 years, and reaches to a step to supply about 35 % of total electric power demand. However, together with globalization of economic and technical development, its future progressing method is required for its new efforts. Among such conditions, when considering a state of future type nuclear energy application, its contribution to further environmental conservation and international cooperation is essential, and it is required for adoption to such requirement how it is made an energy source with excellent economics.The Research Committee on 'Engineering Design on Nuclear Energy Systems' established under recognition in 1998 has been carried out some discussions on present and future status of nuclear energy development. And so forth under participation of outer specialists. Here were summarized on two year's committee actions containing them and viewpoints of nuclear industries, popularization of nuclear system technology, and so forth. (G.K.)

Africa energy future: Alternative scenarios and their implications for sustainable development strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouedraogo, Nadia S.

2017-01-01

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is of prime importance in Africa due to the steady increase in energy requirements, the non-availability of sufficient resources, the high dependence on fossil-fuels to meet these requirements, and the global concerns over the energy-induced environmental issues. This paper is concerned with modelling possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions. Future energy demand is forecasted based on socio-economic variables such as gross domestic product, income per capita, population, and urbanisation. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) modelling framework is employed to analyse and project energy demand and the related emissions under alternative strategies for the period of 2010–2040. Results of scenarios including business-as-usual (BAU) policies, moderate energy access and accelerate energy access policies, renewable energies promotion and energy efficiency policies and their environmental implications are provided. The study provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for energy policies to promote universal energy access, enable a transition to renewable energy, and mitigate climate change for a sustainable development. - Highlights: • Possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions are modelled. • Scenarios using an adaptation of Schwartz's scenario approach, under LEAP are developed. • Under the current energy policies, the universal access to modern energy will not be met by 2030. • Policies to accelerate the changes in energy structure are required for sustainable development. • Investing in Energy efficient strategies has emerged as one of the best solution.

Modelling lifestyle effects on energy demand and related emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weber, C.

2000-01-01

An approach to analyse and quantify the impact of lifestyle factors on current and future energy demand is developed. Thereby not only directly environmentally relevant consumer activities such as car use or heating have been analysed, but also expenditure patterns which induce environmental damage through the production of the consumed goods. The use of household survey data from the national statistical offices offers the possibility to cover this wide range of activities. For the available social-economic household characteristics a variety of different behavioural patterns have been observed. For evaluating the energy and emission consequences of the consumed goods enhanced input-output models are used. The additions implemented - a mixed monetary-energetic approach for inter-industry flows and a separate treatment of transport -related emissions - improve the reliability of the obtained results. The developed approach has been used for analysing current emissions profiles and distributions in West Germany, France and the Netherlands as well as scenarios for future energy demand and related emissions. It therefore provides a comprehensive methodology to analyse environmental effects in a consumer and citizen perspective and thus contributes to an increase transparency of complex economic and ecological interconnections. (author)

Energy in the world: The present situation and future options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, H.H.

1989-01-01

It is reported that the most notable changes on the world energy scene since 1973 concerned the shift in OPEC's role from a base to a swing producer, the disruption of the fast market penetration of nuclear power and the impacts caused by the technical advances at essentially all stages of the energy system. Further, several parts of the world witnessed a strong environmental movement which attracted public attention to the conduct of the energy industry and its social implications and environmental consequences. The lecture illuminates these events in some detail and evaluate their impacts on present and future energy demand, supply and trade patterns. The future energy outlook includes two fundamentally different scenarios. Each scenario in itself appears internally consistent. The diverging projections of future energy demand and supply mixes underlying these scenarios are the result of the inclusion/omission of technical change or dynamics of technology into the analyses. 19 refs, 22 figs

Toward sustainable energy futures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pasztor, J. (United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi (Kenya))

1990-01-01

All energy systems have adverse as well as beneficial impacts on the environment. They vary in quality, quantity, in time and in space. Environmentally sensitive energy management tries to minimize the adverse impacts in an equitable manner between different groups in the most cost-effective ways. Many of the enviornmental impacts of energy continue to be externalized. Consequently, these energy systems which can externalize their impacts more easily are favoured, while others remain relatively expensive. The lack of full integration of environmental factors into energy policy and planning is the overriding problem to be resolved before a transition towards sustainable energy futures can take place. The most pressing problem in the developing countries relates to the unsustainable and inefficient use of biomass resources, while in the industrialized countries, the major energy-environment problems arise out of the continued intensive use of fossil fuel resources. Both of these resource issues have their role to play in climate change. Although there has been considerable improvement in pollution control in a number of situations, most of the adverse impacts will undoubtedly increase in the future. Population growth will lead to increased demand, and there will also be greater use of lower grade fuels. Climate change and the crisis in the biomass resource base in the developing countries are the most critical energy-environment issues to be resolved in the immediate future. In both cases, international cooperation is an essential requirement for successful resolution. 26 refs.

Future of energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, John

2005-01-01

Australia has one of the most cost-effective energy conversion and delivery systems in the world. We are blessed with abundant, high-quality fossil fuels consisting mainly of coal, gas and (diminishing) oil resources. However, this past blessing is also a future curse as this fuel mix, coupled with limits to hydroelectric growth and no nuclear generation capacity, has endowed Australia with one of the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of GDP in the developed world (currently 43 per cent above the International Energy Agency average). This prompted Claude Mandil, head of the IEA, to observe: 'Environmental sustainability represent Australia's greatest energy challenge, with high and growing carbon dioxide emissions.' The challenge for Australia is how to make the massive cuts in GHG emissions required to minimise our world trade risks (which will come at a cost, and put pressure on our energy cost-effectiveness) while maintaining an internationally competitive energy sector. This challenge is exacerbated by a healthy national growth rate which will be accompanied by at least a 50 per cent growth in energy demand by 2020, with a doubling by 2050. Electricity industry projections predict an investment in new generation capacity well in excess of $30 billion to keep up with demand over the next two decades. The stark reality is that if we con tinue to supply and use energy the way we do now, we may as well forget about stabilising our GHG emissions from the energy sector, let alone reducing them in the future. This urgent situation presents a huge opportunity for the introduction of new and improved low-emission energy conversion technologies and demand management systems that vastly reduce GHG emissions per unit of productivity - in fact, an opportunity to transform Australia's energy sector to levels of innovation, social acceptance and environmental performance that has no precedent in this country. We have little choice other than to make a start. Are

Advancing aging society and its effect on the residential use energy demand; Shintensuru koreika shakai to kateiyo energy juyo eno eikyo

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-07-01

The paper analyzed various factors regulating the energy demand in aged households and viewed the future residential use energy demand in the aging society. In Part 1, based on the family budget survey annual report, a study was made of the energy consumption situation of aged people and the trend of the future residential energy consumption. In Part 2, a study was conducted based on survey data on the U.K., France, Sweden and Denmark. In Western countries which are the developed countries of aging, the energy conservation policy effectively worked for the space heating demand which is highest of all, and factors of the energy consumption increase by aging were absorbed. However, since in Japan, aging is rapidly advancing and further there are relatively more factors which connect to an increase in energy consumption in aged households as compared with Western countries, it is thought that Japan is in a situation where the energy consumption increases more often, influenced by aged households. 91 refs., 130 figs., 41 tabs.

Worldwide transportation/energy demand, 1975-2000. Revised Variflex model projections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ayres, R.U.; Ayres, L.W.

1980-03-01

The salient features of the transportation-energy relationships that characterize the world of 1975 are reviewed, and worldwide (34 countries) long-range transportation demand by mode to the year 2000 is reviewed. A worldwide model is used to estimate future energy demand for transportation. Projections made by the forecasting model indicate that in the year 2000, every region will be more dependent on petroleum for the transportation sector than it was in 1975. This report is intended to highlight certain trends and to suggest areas for further investigation. Forecast methodology and model output are described in detail in the appendices. The report is one of a series addressing transportation energy consumption; it supplants and replaces an earlier version published in October 1978 (ORNL/Sub-78/13536/1).

Demands For Solar Electricity From The BRICS Countries In The Future

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Y.

2015-12-01

BRICS countries are presently among the leading the economic powers globally, but their increasing demands for energy and sustainable future requires renewed technical progress on implementation of renewable energy (e.g., solar energy) and a sustainable solution rather than extracting finite natural resources. BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) face both social and environmental pressures as their economy keeps growing. The rapid development of technology in BRICS inevitably altered their culture and behavior, as reflected by education, gender equality, health, and other demographic/socio-economic indicators. These changes coupled with land use/land cover change have altered ecosystem services, as reflected by NEE (Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2) and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). Global climatic changes also drives the demand for sustainable energy. With a focus on solar energy, we analyzed time series of energy consuming behaviors, government policies, and the ecosystem services. Structural equation modeling was applied to confirm the relationships among societal transition, ecosystem services, and climate change. We compared the energy consumption patterns for the five countries and forecasted the changes through 2025. We found that government policies significantly influenced energy consumption behaviors for BRICS and that solar energy usage would continue to increase to 2025 and beyond.

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change. Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amato, A.D.; Ruth, M.; Kirshen, P.; Horwitz, J.

2005-01-01

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change. Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amato, A.D.; Ruth, M. [Environmental Policy Program, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD (United States); Kirshen, P. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Anderson Hall, Medford, MA (United States); Horwitz, J. [Climatological Database Consultant, Binary Systems Software, Newton, MA (United States)

2005-07-01

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.

Coordination of Energy Efficiency and Demand Response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldman, Charles; Reid, Michael; Levy, Roger; Silverstein, Alison

2010-01-29

This paper reviews the relationship between energy efficiency and demand response and discusses approaches and barriers to coordinating energy efficiency and demand response. The paper is intended to support the 10 implementation goals of the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency's Vision to achieve all cost-effective energy efficiency by 2025. Improving energy efficiency in our homes, businesses, schools, governments, and industries - which consume more than 70 percent of the nation's natural gas and electricity - is one of the most constructive, cost-effective ways to address the challenges of high energy prices, energy security and independence, air pollution, and global climate change. While energy efficiency is an increasingly prominent component of efforts to supply affordable, reliable, secure, and clean electric power, demand response is becoming a valuable tool in utility and regional resource plans. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) estimated the contribution from existing U.S. demand response resources at about 41,000 megawatts (MW), about 5.8 percent of 2008 summer peak demand (FERC, 2008). Moreover, FERC recently estimated nationwide achievable demand response potential at 138,000 MW (14 percent of peak demand) by 2019 (FERC, 2009).2 A recent Electric Power Research Institute study estimates that 'the combination of demand response and energy efficiency programs has the potential to reduce non-coincident summer peak demand by 157 GW' by 2030, or 14-20 percent below projected levels (EPRI, 2009a). This paper supports the Action Plan's effort to coordinate energy efficiency and demand response programs to maximize value to customers. For information on the full suite of policy and programmatic options for removing barriers to energy efficiency, see the Vision for 2025 and the various other Action Plan papers and guides available at www.epa.gov/eeactionplan.

Future United States Domestic Water Demand

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population projections, estimated per capita consumption rate, and estimated total annual water demand to 2100 for four future projections based off the IPCC SRES...

A PSO–GA optimal model to estimate primary energy demand of China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Shiwei; Wei Yiming; Wang Ke

2012-01-01

To improve estimation efficiency for future projections, the present study has proposed a hybrid algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithm optimal Energy Demand Estimating (PSO–GA EDE) model, for China. The coefficients of the three forms of the model (linear, exponential, and quadratic) are optimized by PSO–GA using factors, such as GDP, population, economic structure, urbanization rate, and energy consumption structure, that affect demand. Based on 20-year historical data between 1990 and 2009, the simulation results of the proposed model have greater accuracy and reliability than other single optimization methods. Moreover, it can be used with optimal coefficients for the energy demand projections of China. The departure coefficient method is applied to get the weights of the three forms of the model to obtain a combinational prediction. The energy demand of China is going to be 4.79, 4.04, and 4.48 billion tce in 2015, and 6.91, 5.03, and 6.11 billion tce (“standard” tons coal equivalent) in 2020 under three different scenarios. Further, the projection results are compared with other estimating methods. - Highlights: ► A hybrid algorithm PSO–GA optimal energy demands estimating model for China. ► Energy demand of China is estimated by 2020 in three different scenarios. ► The projection results are compared with other estimating methods.

Energy supply and demand result in fiscal 1995 and a short-term prospect. Report submitted by the energy supply and demand trend investigation committee; 1995 nendo energy jukyu jisseki to tanki tenbo. Energy jukyu doko chosa iinkai hokoku

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-10-01

This paper describes the energy demand and supply result in fiscal 1995 and a short-term prospect. The business condition in Japan is regaining some brightness. While the net GDP growth has stayed at 0.9%, the domestic primary energy supply has increased by 2.9% and the final energy consumption by 3.2% over the previous year, respectively. The energy consumption has increased by 3.7% with the background of increase in production levels in the industrial department in material industries induced by external demand. The consumer department showed as high growth as 5.1% centering on household room heating due to cold winter. The business and transportation departments presented an increase of 2.2% and 2.4%, respectively. Sharp growth of 3.0% was shown in the net GDP during January through March, 1996, having the net GDP growth rate for fiscal 1995 escaped from zero growth that has lasted three years. The recovery of the domestic business condition is moving gradually centering on the consumer demand, wherein the point to be focused from now on is how much the recovery can compensate for decline in the public demand and reduction in the external demand. Attention is given on path of the business condition recovery and future trends in energy demand under the situation of risen consumption tax and deregulated oil business. 42 figs., 73 tabs.

Academic training lectures | The outlook for energy supply and demand | 14 - 16 September

CERN Multimedia

2015-01-01

Please note that the next series of Academic Training Lectures will take place on the 14, 15 and 16 September. The lectures will be given by by Chris Llewellyn Smith (Director of Energy Research, University of Oxford, President of SESAME Council). The Outlook for Energy Supply and Demand (1/3) on Monday, 14 September from 11.00 a.m. to 12.00 p.m. https://indico.cern.ch/event/388334/ Can Future Energy Needs be Met Sustainably? (2/3) on Tuesday, 15 September from 4.30 p.m. to 5.30 p.m.  (CERN Colloquium) https://indico.cern.ch/event/388335/ The Outlook for Energy Supply and Demand (3/3) on Wednesday, 16 September from 11.00 a.m to 12.00 p.m. https://indico.cern.ch/event/388336/ at CERN, Main Auditorium, in Building 500-1-001. Description: These lectures will review the challenges facing energy policy, the outlook for different sources of primary energy (fossil and renewable), how energy is used, and prospects for improved energy efficiency. A colloquium ‘Can Future Energy Needs be Met ...

Future demand in electrical power and meeting this demand, in particular with the aid of nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1976-07-01

As a part of the research program in question, the study deals with meeting the electrical power demand in the FRG until the year 2000 in the best possible way with regard to costs, and evaluating the long-term technical, ecological, and economical effects resulting thereof. With the aid of a model, the construction of additional plants and the use of the FRG's power plant network, always applying economical criteria, are investigated while allowing for adequate assurance of supply. It becomes obvious that the power plants and fuels available influence a 25-year planning period. In the year 2000, nuclear energy will play a dominating role in meeting the demand, the conventional thermal power plants will be used more for coping with the above-average medium laods, while peak loads will be met, above all, by pump storage stations. (UA) [de

Integrated assessment of future land use in Brazil under increasing demand for bioenergy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verstegen, Judith; van der Hilst, Floortje; Karssenberg, Derek; Faaij, André

2014-01-01

Environmental impacts of a future increase in demand for bioenergydepend on the magnitude, location and pattern of the direct and indirectland use change of energy cropland expansion. Here we aim at 1)projecting the spatiotemporal pattern of sugar cane expansion and theeffect on other land uses in

Energy demand evolution in Romania between 1995 - 2020 in accordance with the socio-economic adjustment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popescu, A.; Popovici, D.; Popescu, M.; Valcereanu, Gh.; Oprea, G.; Velcescu, O.

1996-01-01

Economic and social development of Romania can not be achieved without an increasing energy consumption (in fuels, electricity and thermal energy). The energy supply assessment requires the knowledge of economic, technological, demographic and social development forecasting in accordance with the political transformations in Romania. This paper presents energy demand forecast in accordance with different scenarios of the country's macro-economical development. The future evolution of energy demand is emphasized considering the energy efficiency improvement and the energy conservation policies.(author). 6 figs., 2 tabs., 4 refs

Uruguay Energy Supply Options Study: a Detailed Multi-Sector Integrated Energy Supply and Demand Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conzelmann, G.; Veselka, T.

1997-01-01

Uruguay is in the middle of making critical decisions affecting the design of its future energy supply system.Momentum for change is expected to come from several directions including recent and foreseeable upgrades and modifications to energy conversion facilities, the importation of natural gas from Argentina, the possibility for a stronger interconnection of regional electricity systems, the country s membership in MERCOSUR, and the potential for energy sector reforms by the Government of Uruguay.The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of several fuel diversification strategies on Uruguay s energy supply system.The analysis pays special attention to fuel substitution trends due to potential imports of natural gas via a gas pipeline from Argentina and increasing electricity ties with neighboring countries.The Government of Uruguay contracted Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to study several energy development scenario ns with the support of several Uruguayan Institutions.Specifically, ANL was asked to conduct a detailed energy supply and demand analysis, develop energy demand projections based on an analysis of past energy demand patterns with support from local institutions, evaluate the effects of potential natural gas imports and electricity exchanges, and determine the market penetration of natural gas under various scenarios

Residential energy demand in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arouca, M.; Gomes, F.M.; Rosa, L.P.

1981-01-01

The energy demand in Brazilian residential sector is studied, discussing the methodology for analyzing this demand from some ideas suggested, for developing an adequate method to brazilian characteristics. The residential energy consumption of several fuels in Brazil is also presented, including a comparative evaluation with the United States and France. (author)

EnerFuture Energy Scenarios to 2035 'Understanding our Energy Future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting - February 2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-01-01

The EnerFuture service provides projections to 2035 of energy supply and demand across the world, powered by the POLES model, to help you with what to expect in the energy industry in the mid-term. Our energy forecasting team have developed three key energy scenarios (Balance, Emergence and Renaissance) to illustrate possible futures. Balance scenario: Balance provides an outlook of the energy system up to 2035 based on current policies and trends. Sustained growth of China and other emerging countries is a powerful driver of global energy demand, but confirmed energy policy commitments in several regions play a key role in controlling the pace of growth. However, non-coordinated policies result in soaring CO_2 emissions across the world and energy prices rise. Emergence scenario: This scenario explores the implications of more stringent climate policies, with more ambitious efforts on energy efficiency, initiatives to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and a real emergence of renewable technologies. Europe goes beyond its -20% targets by 2020, and the OECD and emerging countries meet their Copenhagen objectives. Following this, a new green deal is launched to reduce world emissions by a factor of 2 by 2050. Renaissance scenario: With strong efforts in the exploitation and production of unconventional oil and gas resources, the world encounters a fossil fuels renaissance with the appearance of new key actors and ultimately new geopolitical configurations changing the energy independence of several countries. For climate efforts, this new paradigm leads to progressively weaker policies. Further analysis and key findings are available here: - Increasing economic activity and wealth drives energy consumption, in a balance between energy prices and innovation; - As Non-OECD exceeds OECD oil demand, massive financial flows underlie the shifts in global oil trade; - Optimistic resource assumptions and moderate production costs would lead to an oil production Renaissance

The relationship between house size and life cycle energy demand: Implications for energy efficiency regulations for buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stephan, André; Crawford, Robert H.

2016-01-01

House size has significantly increased over the recent decades in many countries. Larger houses often have a higher life cycle energy demand due to their increased use of materials and larger area to heat, cool and light. Yet, most energy efficiency regulations for buildings fail to adequately include requirements for addressing the energy demand associated with house size. This study quantifies the effect of house size on life cycle energy demand in order to inform future regulations. It uses a parametric model of a typical detached house in Melbourne, Australia and varies its floor area from 100 to 392 m"2 for four different household sizes. Both initial and recurrent embodied energy requirements are quantified using input-output-based hybrid analysis and operational energy is calculated in primary energy terms over 50 years. Results show that the life cycle energy demand increases at a slower rate compared to house size. Expressing energy efficiency per m"2 therefore favours large houses while these require more energy. Also, embodied energy represents 26–50% across all variations. Building energy efficiency regulations should incorporate embodied energy, correct energy intensity thresholds for house size and use multiple functional units to measure efficiency. These measures may help achieve greater net energy reductions. - Highlights: • The life cycle energy demand (LCE) is calculated for 90 house sizes and 4 household sizes. • The LCE is sublinearly correlated with house size. • Larger houses appear to be more energy efficient per m"2 while they use more energy overall. • Embodied energy (EE) represents up to 52% of the LCE over 50 years. • Building energy efficiency regulations need to consider house size and EE.

Energy of the future: final report; Energias do futuro: relatorio final

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

This report presents the analysis of the main factors that may restrict the future energy demand and preferences for technology choices and types of fuels. The work is based on a literature review on the state of the art of leading energy technologies. In addition, information is gathered to assist the characterization of amounts and forms of energy that will be important in the period 2030-2050, as well as major consuming sectors. At the end of a presentation is made a summary diagram that indicates the degree of effort in R and D that may be necessary taking into consideration the state of the art technologies, an array of challenges and demand and future energy matrix.

Optimization of annual energy demand in office buildings under the influence of climate change in Chile

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rubio-Bellido, Carlos; Pérez-Fargallo, Alexis; Pulido-Arcas, Jesús A.

2016-01-01

Numerous studies about climate change have emerged in recent years because of their potential impact on many activities of human life, amongst which, the building sector is no exception. Changes in climate conditions have a direct influence on the external conditions for buildings and, thus, on their energy demand. In this context, computer aided simulation provides handy tools that help in assessing this impact. This paper investigates climate data for future scenarios and the effect on energy demand in office buildings in Chile. This data has been generated in the 9 climatic zones that are representative of the main inhabited areas, for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080. Predictions have been produced for the acknowledged A2 ‘medium-high’ Greenhouse Gases emissions GHG scenario, pursuant the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The effect of climate change on the energy demand for office buildings is optimized by implementing the calculation procedure of ISO-13790:2008, based on iterations of its envelope and form. As a result, this research clarifies how future climate scenarios will affect the energy demand for different types of office buildings in Chile, and how their shape and enclosure can be optimized. - Highlights: • Forecast of 9 Chilean climate zones under Greenhouse Gases Scenario A2. • Influence of envelope and form on future energy demand in office buildings. • Multiple iterations on Form Ratio (FR) and Window-to-Wall Ratio (WWR). • Optimization in early stages of design considering global warming.

Climate change and energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hengeveld, H.G.

1991-01-01

Climate and weather events affect energy demand in most economic sectors. Linear relationships exist between consumption and heating degree days, and peak electricity demand increases significantly during heat waves. The relative magnitudes of demand changes for a two times carbon dioxide concentration scenario are tabulated, illustrating heating degree days and cooling degree days for 5 Prairie locations. Irrigation, water management, crop seeding and harvesting and weed control are examples of climate-dependent agricultural activities involving significant energy use. The variability of summer season liquid fuel use in the agricultural sector in the Prairie provinces from 1984-1989 shows a relationship between agricultural energy use and regional climate fluctuations. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

The demand for environmental quality in driving transitions to low-polluting energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fouquet, Roger

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to understand the long run demand for energy-related environmental quality, its influence on legislation and on transitions to low polluting energy sources. It presents a series of episodes in British history where a demand for improvements in energy-related environmental quality existed. These episodes helped to identify a few cases where markets partially drove transitions to low polluting energy sources, in specific economic conditions. More generally, they showed that, when pushed, governments will introduce environmental legislation, although it tends to be weak and poorly enforced. In the case of air pollution, strong and binding legislation occurred roughly one hundred years later than was socially optimal. Based on this evidence, for a transition to a low carbon economy, governments will probably need to introduce focussed and binding legislation, and this cannot be expected without strong and sustained demand for climate stability. This demand will need to be spearheaded by pressure groups to introduce legislation, to enforce it and to avoid it being over-turned by future governments. - Highlights: ► Reviews demand for improvements in environmental quality in British history. ► In special cases, demand may drive transitions through markets. ► Demand will probably have to drive transitions to low polluting energy through legislation. ► Need for strong and sustained demand spearheaded through pressure groups.

Future role of Gulf oil in world energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eltony, M.N.

1998-01-01

The view that there will be a growing dependence on oil from the Gulf countries is shared by a great number of oil market analysts. This view is based on the fact that Gulf countries dominate the global oil reserves. Energy analyst argue that as the world demand for oil continues to grow driven largely by the growth in developing countries' consumption coupled with constrained non-OPEC supply, the end result will be that the call on Gulf oil will grow substantially. In summary, this paper has challenged the view of growing dependence on oil from the Gulf using available information in conjunction with reasonable and fairly plausible arguments. The aim was to point out to the GCC member counties the danger of relying on these views in shaping their economic policies and in setting their oil market strategies. They may run the ultimate risk of being left with huge oil reserves that no one wants. (orig.)

Energy demand and supply, energy policies, and energy security in the Republic of Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hoseok; Shin, Eui-soon; Chung, Woo-jin

2011-01-01

The Republic of Korea (ROK) has enjoyed rapid economic growth and development over the last 30 years. Rapid increases in energy use-especially petroleum, natural gas, and electricity, and especially in the industrial and transport sectors-have fueled the ROK's economic growth, but with limited fossil fuel resources of its own, the result has been that the ROK is almost entirely dependent on energy imports. The article that follows summarizes the recent trends in the ROK energy sector, including trends in energy demand and supply, and trends in economic, demographic, and other activities that underlie trends in energy use. The ROK has been experiencing drastic changes in its energy system, mainly induced by industrial, supply security, and environmental concerns, and energy policies in the ROK have evolved over the years to address such challenges through measures such as privatization of energy-sector activities, emphases on enhancing energy security through development of energy efficiency, nuclear power, and renewable energy, and a related focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The assembly of a model for evaluating energy futures in the ROK (ROK2010 LEAP) is described, and results of several policy-based scenarios focused on different levels of nuclear energy utilization are described, and their impacts on of energy supply and demand in the ROK through the year 2030 are explored, along with their implications for national energy security and long-term policy plans. Nuclear power continues to hold a crucial position in the ROK's energy policy, but aggressive expansion of nuclear power alone, even if possible given post-Fukushima global concerns, will not be sufficient to attain the ROK's 'green economy' and greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals. - Research highlights: →Rapid industrialization caused ROK energy use to increase over 10-fold during 1970-2000, with dramatic structural changes. → Growth in energy use after 2000 slowed to under 5%/yr, and

Solar energy futures in a Western European context

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nakicenovic, N; Messner, S

1983-02-01

The study considers three limiting scenarios that specify possible but not necessarily likely transitions to sustainable energy futures for Western Europe. Two scenarios consider exclusively solar futures--one based on centralized solar technologies (Hard scenario) and the other on decentralized, user-oriented technologies (Soft scenario). The third scenario, based on nuclear technologies, incorporates an intermediate degree of centralization in the energy system and serves as a comparison to the two exclusively solar scenarios. All three scenarios lead to sustainable energy futures before the year 2100, which is the time horizon of the study. While all three scenarios eliminate Western Europe's dependence on domestic and foreign fossil energy sources, the Hard Solar scenario requires substantial imports of solar produced hydrogen. The scenarios are based on dynamic balances of energy demand and supply using detailed models to achieve consistency. The overall implications of each scenario are that fundamental but different changes of the whole energy system, economic structure and life-styles are necessary in order to achieve sustainable energy futures in Western Europe.

Solar energy futures in a Western European context

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nakicenovic, N; Messner, S

1983-02-01

The study considers three limiting scenarios that specify possible but not necessarily likely transitions to sustainable energy future for Western Europe. Two scenarios consider exclusively solar futures - one based on centralized solar technologies (hard scenario) and the other on decentralized, user-oriented technologies (soft scenario). The third scenario, based on nuclear technologies, incorporates an intermediate degree of centralization in the energy system and serves as a comparison to the two exclusively solar scenarios. All three scenarios lead to sustainable energy futures before the year 2100, which is the time horizon of the study. While all three scenarios eliminate Western Europe's dependence on domestic and foreign fossil energy sources, the Hard Solar scenario requires substantial imports of solar produced hydrogen. The scenarios are based on dynamic balances of energy demand and supply using detailed models to achieve consistency. The overall implications of each scenario are that fundamental but different changes of the whole energy system, economic structure and life-styles are necessary in order to achieve sustainable energy futures in Western Europe.

A review of China’s approaches toward a sustainable energy future: the period since 1990

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhu, Xianli; Zhuang, Guiyang; Xiong, Na

2014-01-01

policy-making in China, as well as to other developing countries facing similar challenges. This article gives a brief overview and assessment of the Chinese approaches toward ensuring a sustainable future. It starts with a description of the challenges facing China in securing universal, clean......China’s rapid economic growth in the past few decades has been accompanied by huge increases in energy demand. The Chinese energy sector faces the multiple challenges of mobilizing huge investment to keep energy supplies in line with increases in demand, securing international oil and gas supplies...... to meet the widening gap between domestic demand and supply, and reducing environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Identifying China’s approaches toward ensuring a sustainable energy future in the last two decades and assessing their effectiveness can be of great value to the future of energy...

Modelling the water energy nexus: should variability in water supply impact on decision making for future energy supply options?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. D. S. Cullis

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Many countries, like South Africa, Australia, India, China and the United States, are highly dependent on coal fired power stations for energy generation. These power stations require significant amounts of water, particularly when fitted with technology to reduce pollution and climate change impacts. As water resources come under stress it is important that spatial variability in water availability is taken into consideration for future energy planning particularly with regards to motivating for a switch from coal fired power stations to renewable technologies. This is particularly true in developing countries where there is a need for increased power production and associated increasing water demands for energy. Typically future energy supply options are modelled using a least cost optimization model such as TIMES that considers water supply as an input cost, but is generally constant for all technologies. Different energy technologies are located in different regions of the country with different levels of water availability and associated infrastructure development and supply costs. In this study we develop marginal cost curves for future water supply options in different regions of a country where different energy technologies are planned for development. These water supply cost curves are then used in an expanded version of the South Africa TIMES model called SATIM-W that explicitly models the water-energy nexus by taking into account the regional nature of water supply availability associated with different energy supply technologies. The results show a significant difference in the optimal future energy mix and in particular an increase in renewables and a demand for dry-cooling technologies that would not have been the case if the regional variability of water availability had not been taken into account. Choices in energy policy, such as the introduction of a carbon tax, will also significantly impact on future water resources, placing

Modelling the water energy nexus: should variability in water supply impact on decision making for future energy supply options?

Science.gov (United States)

Cullis, James D. S.; Walker, Nicholas J.; Ahjum, Fadiel; Juan Rodriguez, Diego

2018-02-01

Many countries, like South Africa, Australia, India, China and the United States, are highly dependent on coal fired power stations for energy generation. These power stations require significant amounts of water, particularly when fitted with technology to reduce pollution and climate change impacts. As water resources come under stress it is important that spatial variability in water availability is taken into consideration for future energy planning particularly with regards to motivating for a switch from coal fired power stations to renewable technologies. This is particularly true in developing countries where there is a need for increased power production and associated increasing water demands for energy. Typically future energy supply options are modelled using a least cost optimization model such as TIMES that considers water supply as an input cost, but is generally constant for all technologies. Different energy technologies are located in different regions of the country with different levels of water availability and associated infrastructure development and supply costs. In this study we develop marginal cost curves for future water supply options in different regions of a country where different energy technologies are planned for development. These water supply cost curves are then used in an expanded version of the South Africa TIMES model called SATIM-W that explicitly models the water-energy nexus by taking into account the regional nature of water supply availability associated with different energy supply technologies. The results show a significant difference in the optimal future energy mix and in particular an increase in renewables and a demand for dry-cooling technologies that would not have been the case if the regional variability of water availability had not been taken into account. Choices in energy policy, such as the introduction of a carbon tax, will also significantly impact on future water resources, placing additional water

Modelling energy demand of Croatian industry sector

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Medić, Zlatko Bačelić; Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

2014-01-01

Industry represents one of the most interesting sectors when analysing Croatian final energy demand. Croatian industry represents 20% of nation's GDP and employs 25% of total labour force making it a significant subject for the economy. Today, with around 60 PJ of final energy demand...... it is the third most energy intensive sector in Croatia after transport and households. Implementing mechanisms that would lead to improvements in energy efficiency in this sector seems relevant. Through this paper, long-term energy demand projections for Croatian industry will be shown. The central point...... for development of the model will be parameters influencing the industry in Croatia. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model. IED model produces results which can be compared to Croatian National Energy Strategy. One of the conclusions shown in this paper is significant...

Controlling energy demand. What history?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beers, Marloes; Bonhomme, Noel; Bouvier, Yves; Pautard, Eric; Fevrier, Patrick; Lanthier, Pierre; Goyens, Valerie; Desama, Claude; Beltran, Alain

2012-01-01

this special dossier of the historical annals of electricity collection takes stock of the post 1970's history of energy demand control in industrialized countries: Abatement of energy dependence, the European Communities program of rational use of energy in the 1970's (Marloes Beers); The G7 and the energy cost: the limits of dialogue between industrialized countries - 1975-1985 (Noel Bonhomme); Saving more to consume more. The ambiguity of EDF's communication during the 'energy saving' era (Yves Bouvier); From rationing to energy saving certificates, 4 decades of electricity demand control in France and in the UK (eric Pautard); The French agency of environment and energy mastery (ADEME): between energy control and sustainable development (Patrick Fevrier); Hydro-Quebec and efficiency in household energy consumption, from 1990 to the present day (Pierre Lanthier); Control of energy consumption since the 1970's, the policy of rational use of energy in Walloon region - Belgium (Valerie Goyens); Electricity distribution in the new energy paradigm (Claude Desama); Conclusion (Alain Beltran)

The future of nuclear energy in the enlarged European Union

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comsa, Olivia; Mingiuc, C.; Paraschiva, M.V.

2002-01-01

The paper presents an analysis of the future of nuclear energy at the European level taking into account the main factors which influence its development among which the most important are: - enlargement of EU to 30 member states with different energy structure; - the increase of energy consumption; - the constant increasing of external dependence for energy which is estimated at 70% in the next 20-30 years; - liberalisation of the energy sources and supply sector; - environmental concerns, including climate change. In the Green Paper, nuclear is grouped together with coal, oil, gas and renewables as 'less than perfect' energy options and together with coal it is classed as an 'undesirable' and referred to as a 'source of energy in doubt ' which is ' tainted by the original sin of dual usage (civil and military) in the fuel cycle'. The final conclusion is 'the future of nuclear energy in Europe is uncertain'. It depends on several factors beyond energy demand; including: a solution to the problems of managing nuclear waste, the economic viability of the new generation of power stations, the safety of reactors in Eastern Europe, in particular applicant countries and policies to combat global warming. The 'essential questions' for nuclear is 'How can the community develop fusion technology and reactors for the future, reinforce nuclear safety and find a solution to the problem of nuclear waste?' There are a number of very important factors that will influence the future of nuclear energy inside the European Union. The first and foremost of these is continuing the safe operation of the existing nuclear facilities. The second is the demand for energy, in particular electricity. The third is the nuclear sector's ability to meet a share of this demand in a competitive way. If the demand materialises, there are likely to be reactors available that can further improve nuclear competitiveness while maintaining its recent excellent safety record. It will be the market that

Shaping a sustainable energy future for India: Management challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.

2010-01-01

Most of the studies on the Indian energy sector focus on the possible future scenarios of Indian energy system development without considering the management dimension to the problem-how to ensure a smooth transition to reach the desired future state. The purpose of this paper is to highlight some sector management concerns to a sustainable energy future in the country. The paper follows a deductive approach and reviews the present status and possible future energy outlooks from the existing literature. This is followed by a strategy outline to achieve long-term energy sustainability. Management challenges on the way to such a sustainable future are finally presented. The paper finds that the aspiration of becoming an economic powerhouse and the need to eradicate poverty will necessarily mean an increase in energy consumption unless a decoupling of energy and GDP growth is achieved. Consequently, the energy future of the country is eminently unsustainable. A strategy focussing on demand reduction, enhanced access, use of local resources and better management practices is proposed here. However, a sustainable path faces a number of challenges from the management and policy perspectives.

Energy and the future : Canada's role

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raymont, M.

2005-01-01

The rise in global energy consumption is driven by economic growth, particularly in developing countries. It is expected that by 2030, the world population will consume 50 per cent more energy than today. This increase in global energy demand can no longer be met through the business as usual approach. Graphs depicting emerging energy demand in Asia were presented for nuclear energy, coal, natural gas, oil and renewables. The issue of how China can meet it's growing energy demand was discussed with reference to energy consumed by its industrial, agricultural, commercial, residential and transportation sectors. The author emphasized the uneven distribution of resources, where consuming areas do not coincide with producing areas. It is expected that traditional energy sources will still supply most of the world's energy need for the foreseeable future, but they will leave less of an environmental impact. The author suggested that renewable energy sources will also increase but will comprise less than 20 per cent of the world supply in 2050. The author also discussed the issue of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Kyoto obligations and projections of what will happen with Kyoto post 2012. Canada's GHG record and recent environmental findings were also discussed with reference to Arctic ice coverage and the decline in average winter temperature. It was suggested that technology is the key to the energy shortage the environment and security. With declining conventional oil reserves, old nuclear technology and aging electric power technology, new technology must be used to address supply issues, distribution, interconversion, environmental impacts and risks. It was emphasized that since the energy sector is Canada's greatest economic driver, Canada should focus on energy technologies to build a more competitive energy sector. Huge export opportunities also exist for energy technologies. The role of industry and governments in achieving this goal was also discussed. figs

Structural change of the economy, technological progress and long-term energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klinge Jacobsen, H.

2000-01-01

long-term energy demand. The last two papers are devoted to the structural change of trade patterns and its implications for long-term energy demand from industries and the effects on trade from changes in energy technology. Finally, an extended paper documents the model applied for the analyses in paper three to paper five in combination with a critical assessment of the model and the results obtained in the first five papers. The last section of this paper is devoted to a summary of conclusions and suggestions for future research. (ln)

A future Demand Side Management (DSM) opportunity for utility as variable renewable penetrate scale up using agriculture.

Science.gov (United States)

Ines, A.; Bhattacharjee, A.; Modi, V.; Robertson, A. W.; Lall, U.; Kocaman Ayse, S.; Chaudhary, S.; Kumar, A.; Ganapathy, A.; Kumar, A.; Mishra, V.

2015-12-01

Energy demand management, also known as demand side management (DSM), is the modification of consumer demand for energy through various methods such as smart metering, incentive based schemes, payments for turning off loads or rescheduling loads. Usually, the goal of demand side management is to encourage the consumer to use less power during periods of peak demand, or to move the time of energy use to off-peak times. Peak demand management does not necessarily decrease total energy consumption, but could be expected to reduce the need for investments in networks and/or power plants for meeting peak demands. Electricity use can vary dramatically on short and medium time frames, and the pricing system may not reflect the instantaneous cost as additional higher-cost that are brought on-line. In addition, the capacity or willingness of electricity consumers to adjust to prices by altering elasticity of demand may be low, particularly over short time frames. In the scenario of Indian grid setup, the retail customers do not follow real-time pricing and it is difficult to incentivize the utility companies for continuing the peak demand supply. A question for the future is how deeper penetration of renewable will be handled? This is a challenging problem since one has to deal with high variability, while managing loss of load probabilities. In the case of managing the peak demand using agriculture, in the future as smart metering matures with automatic turn on/off for a pump, it will become possible to provide an ensured amount of water or energy to the farmer while keeping the grid energized for 24 hours. Supply scenarios will include the possibility of much larger penetration of solar and wind into the grid. While, in absolute terms these sources are small contributors, their role will inevitably grow but DSM using agriculture could help reduce the capital cost. The other option is of advancing or delaying pump operating cycle even by several hours, will still ensure

Decomposing energy demand across BRIIC countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adetutu, Morakinyo O.; Glass, Anthony J.; Weyman-Jones, Thomas G.

2016-01-01

Energy plays an important role within the production technology of fast emerging economies, such that firms' reaction to changes in energy prices provides useful information on factor productivity and factor intensity, as well as the likely outcome of energy policy initiatives, among other things. Drawing on duality theory, this paper decomposes changes in energy demand into substitution and output effects using annual sector-level production data for Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and China (BRIIC) for the period 1995–2009. Unlike previous studies, this study analyzed the economic properties of the underlying production technology. Results indicate that changes in energy demand are strongly dominated by substitution effects. More importantly, an intriguing finding that emerges from our analysis is the role of economies of scale and factor accumulation, as opposed to technical progress, in giving rise to the growth performance of sampled economies. - Highlights: • The analysis examines the structure and channels of changes in energy demand across productive sectors in BRIIC countries during 1995–2009. • We evaluate substitution and output effects as well as the nature of firm productivity across these countries. • Changes in energy demand arising from changes in (relative) price of energy is strongly dominated by substitution effects. • The main drivers of economic performance and energy use over the sample period are economies of scale and factor accumulation.

Sectoral energy demand data: Sources and Issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ounali, A.

1991-01-01

This chapter of the publication is dealing with Sectoral Energy Demand Data giving details about the Sources and Issues. Some comments are presented on rural energy surveys. Guidelines for the Definition and Desegregation of Sectoral Energy Consumption is given and Data Necessary for Sectoral Energy Demand Analysis is discussed

Hydrogen, an energy carrier with a future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zimmer, K.H.

1975-01-01

The inefficient use, associated with pollutants, of the fossil energy carriers coal, crude oil and natural gas, will deplete resources, if the energy demand increases exponentially, in the not-too-distant future. That is the reason why the hydrogen-energy concept gains in importance. This requires drastic changes in structure in a lot of technological fields. This task is only to be mastered if there is cooperation between all special fields, in order to facilitate the economical production, distribution and utilization of hydrogen. (orig.) [de

MITI revises outlooks for energy and power demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1987-01-01

The Ministry of International Trade and Industry has revised downward its long-term outlook on energy supply and demand, lowering the estimated primary energy demand for fiscal 2000 from 600 million tons in oil equivalent to 540 MTOE, and reducing total power demand for fiscal 2000 from 899.1 billion kWh to 838 billion. In this content, the outlook for installed nuclear capacity has been revised downward from 62,000 MW to 53,500 MW. This revision of the power supply-demand outlook was reported on Oct. 1 to the supply and demand committee (Chairman - Yoshihiko Morozumi, Adviser to Nippon Schlum-berger) of the Electric Utility Industry Council; the energy supply-demand outlook was decided on Oct. 14 by the MITI Supply and Demand Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee for Energy and reported on Oct. 16 to the conference of ministers concerned with energy. (author)

Demand Response and Energy Storage Integration Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ma, Ookie; Cheung, Kerry; Olsen, Daniel J.; Matson, Nance; Sohn, Michael D.; Rose, Cody M.; Dudley, Junqiao Han; Goli, Sasank; Kiliccote, Sila; Cappers, Peter; MacDonald, Jason; Denholm, Paul; Hummon, Marissa; Jorgenson, Jennie; Palchak, David; Starke, Michael; Alkadi, Nasr; Bhatnagar, Dhruv; Currier, Aileen; Hernandez, Jaci; Kirby, Brendan; O' Malley, Mark

2016-03-01

Demand response and energy storage resources present potentially important sources of bulk power system services that can aid in integrating variable renewable generation. While renewable integration studies have evaluated many of the challenges associated with deploying large amounts of variable wind and solar generation technologies, integration analyses have not yet fully incorporated demand response and energy storage resources. This report represents an initial effort in analyzing the potential integration value of demand response and energy storage, focusing on the western United States. It evaluates two major aspects of increased deployment of demand response and energy storage: (1) Their operational value in providing bulk power system services and (2) Market and regulatory issues, including potential barriers to deployment.

An Optimal and Distributed Demand Response Strategy for Energy Internet Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qian Liu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This study proposes a new model of demand response management for a future smart grid that consists of smart microgrids. The microgrids have energy storage units, responsive loads, controllable distributed generation units, and renewable energy resources. They can buy energy from the utility company when the power generation in themselves cannot satisfy the load demand, and sell extra power generation to the utility company. The goal is to optimize the operation schedule of microgrids to minimize the microgrids’ payments and the utility company’s operation cost. A parallel distributed optimization algorithm based on games theory is developed to solve the optimization problem, in which microgrids only need to send their aggregated purchasing/selling energy to the utility company, thus avoid infringing its privacy. Microgrids can update their operation schedule simultaneously. A case study is implemented, and the simulation results show that the proposed method is effective and efficient.

Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Poul Alberg Østergaard

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles.

The future of energy use

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hill, R.; O`Keefe, P.; Snape, C. [University of Northumbria, Newcastle upon Tyne (United Kingdom). Photovoltaics Application Centre

1995-12-31

The book gives a comprehensive analysis of the history and use of different forms of energy, their environmental and social impacts and, in particular, their economic costs and the future of their supply. It examines all the major forms of energy - conventional fuels such as oil and coal, nuclear power and alternative and renewable sources - and includes case studies on the transport and building sectors in the North and agroforestry and fuelwood problems in the South. The authors discuss the development of energy provision and patterns of supply and demand, and examine the use of end-use analyses. They look at the ways in which social and environmental costs should be introduced into energy planning and accounting, and emphasise the crucial role of efficiency to limit over-consumption. 91 refs., 100 figs., 62 tabs.

Future Parking Demand at Rail Stations in Klang Valley

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ho Phooi Wai

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Klang Valley, Malaysia is currently undergoing a massive development of rail transportation system expansion where the current integrated rail transit system will see new extensions of two MRT lines and an LRT line by year 2020. By year 2017, the first MRT line will be ready to run with 31 new rail stations connected to the current passenger rail network. The existing Park and Ride facilities in Klang Valley are commonly known as being unable to sufficiently cater for the current parking space demand. Therefore, with the expansion of many additional rail stations which are rapidly under construction, there are doubts that the future parking space at rail stations will be able to accommodate the sudden rise of rail passengers. Although the authorities are increasing parking bays at various locations, will the future parking demand at rail stations be sufficient? This paper studies the factors influencing parking demand in terms of population, car ownership, new car registrations and passenger rail ridership and estimating the future parking demand using Linear Regression method. Result shows that the forecasted parking demand at rail stations after the implementation of the first new MRT system in 2017 is 2.7 times more than in 2014.

China’s primary energy demands in 2020: Predictions from an MPSO–RBF estimation model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Shiwei; Wei Yiming; Wang Ke

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► A Mix-encoding PSO and RBF network-based energy demand forecasting model is proposed. ► The proposed model has simpler structure and smaller estimated errors than other ANN models. ► China’s energy demand could reach 6.25 billion, 4.16 billion, and 5.29 billion tons tce. ► China’s energy efficiency in 2020 will increase by more than 30% compared with 2009. - Abstract: In the present study, a Mix-encoding Particle Swarm Optimization and Radial Basis Function (MPSO–RBF) network-based energy demand forecasting model is proposed and applied to forecast China’s energy consumption until 2020. The energy demand is analyzed for the period from 1980 to 2009 based on GDP, population, proportion of industry in GDP, urbanization rate, and share of coal energy. The results reveal that the proposed MPSO–RBF based model has fewer hidden nodes and smaller estimated errors compared with other ANN-based estimation models. The average annual growth of China’s energy demand will be 6.70%, 2.81%, and 5.08% for the period between 2010 and 2020 in three scenarios and could reach 6.25 billion, 4.16 billion, and 5.29 billion tons coal equivalent in 2020. Regardless of future scenarios, China’s energy efficiency in 2020 will increase by more than 30% compared with 2009.

Demand response from the non-domestic sector: Early UK experiences and future opportunities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grünewald, Philipp; Torriti, Jacopo

2013-01-01

Demand response is believed by some to become a major contributor towards system balancing in future electricity networks. Shifting or reducing demand at critical moments can reduce the need for generation capacity, help with the integration of renewables, support more efficient system operation and thereby potentially lead to cost and carbon reductions for the entire energy system. In this paper we review the nature of the response resource of consumers from different non-domestic sectors in the UK, based on extensive half hourly demand profiles and observed demand responses. We further explore the potential to increase the demand response capacity through changes in the regulatory and market environment. The analysis suggests that present demand response measures tend to stimulate stand-by generation capacity in preference to load shifting and we propose that extended response times may favour load based demand response, especially in sectors with significant thermal loads. - Highlights: • Empirical demand response data from non-domestic sector evaluated. • Load profiles suggest strong sector dependence on availability response at system peak. • Majority of aggregated demand response still stems from stand-by generation, not from demand turn down. • Scope for substantial increase in demand response capacity if response times were extended

Energy demand in Portuguese manufacturing: a two-stage model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borges, A.M.; Pereira, A.M.

1992-01-01

We use a two-stage model of factor demand to estimate the parameters determining energy demand in Portuguese manufacturing. In the first stage, a capital-labor-energy-materials framework is used to analyze the substitutability between energy as a whole and other factors of production. In the second stage, total energy demand is decomposed into oil, coal and electricity demands. The two stages are fully integrated since the energy composite used in the first stage and its price are obtained from the second stage energy sub-model. The estimates obtained indicate that energy demand in manufacturing responds significantly to price changes. In addition, estimation results suggest that there are important substitution possibilities among energy forms and between energy and other factors of production. The role of price changes in energy-demand forecasting, as well as in energy policy in general, is clearly established. (author)

Long-range outlook of energy demands and supplies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-01-01

An interim report on the long-range outlook of energy demands and supplies in Japan as prepared by an ad hoc committee, Advisory Committee for Energy was given for the period up to the year 2000. As the energy demands in terms of crude oil, the following figures are set: 460 million kl for 1990, 530 million kl for 1995, and 600 million kl for 2000. In Japan, without domestic energy resources, over 80% of the primary energy has been imported; the reliance on Middle East where political situation is unstable, for petroleum is very large. The following things are described. Background and policy; energy demands in industries, transports, and people's livelihood; energy supplies by coal, nuclear energy, petroleum, etc.; energy demand/supply outlook for 2000. (Mori, K.)

Future of nuclear energy research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuketa, Toyojiro

1989-09-01

In spite of the easing of worldwide energy supply and demand situation in these years, we believe that research efforts towards the next generation nuclear energy are indispensably necessary. Firstly, the nuclear colleagues believe that nuclear energy is the best major energy source from many points of view including the global environmental viewpoint. Secondly, in the medium- and long-range view, there will once again be a high possibility of a tight supply and demand situation for oil. Thirdly, nuclear energy is the key energy source to overcome the vulnerability of the energy supply structure in industrialized countries like Japan where virtually no fossil energy source exists. In this situation, nuclear energy is a sort of quasi-domestic energy as a technology-intensive energy. Fourthly, the intensive efforts to develop the nuclear technology in the next generation will give rise to a further evolution in science and technology in the future. A few examples of medium- and long-range goals of the nuclear energy research are development of new types of reactors which can meet various needs of energy more flexibly and reliably than the existing reactors, fundamental and ultimate solution of the radioactive waste problems, creation and development of new types of energy production systems which are to come beyond the fusion, new development in the biological risk assessment of the radiation effects and so on. In order to accomplish those goals it is quite important to introduce innovations in such underlying technologies as materials control in more microscopic manners, photon and particle beam techniques, accelerator engineering, artificial intelligence, and so on. 32 refs, 2 figs

Nuclear energy of the future, solar energy of the future: some convergencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flamant, G.

2006-01-01

Most medium- and long-term energy scenarios foresee the joint development of renewable and nuclear energies. In other words, the energy sources must be as various as possible. Among the renewable energy sources, the solar energy presents the highest development potential, even if today the biomass and wind energies are quantitatively more developed. In France, the solar power generation is ensured by photovoltaic systems. However, the thermodynamical conversion of solar energy (using concentrating systems) represents an enormous potential at the world scale and several projects of solar plants are in progress in Spain and in the USA. The advantages of this solution are numerous: high efficiency of thermodynamic cycles, possibility of heat storage and hybridization (solar/fuels), strong potential of innovation. Moreover, the solar concentrators allow to reach temperatures higher than 1000 deg. C and thus allow to foresee efficient thermochemical cycles for hydrogen generation. The future solar plants will have to be efficient, reliable and will have to be able to meet the energy demand. In order to reach high thermodynamic cycle efficiencies, it is necessary to increase the temperature of the hot source and to design combined cycles. These considerations are common to the communities of researchers and engineers of both the solar thermal and nuclear industries. Therefore, the future development of generation 4 nuclear power plants and of generation 3 solar plants are conditioned by the resolution of similar problems, like the coolants (molten salts and gases), the materials (metals and ceramics), the heat transfers (hydrogen generation), and the qualification of systems (how solar concentrators can help to perform qualification tests of nuclear materials). Short communication. (J.S.)

Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. J. Santos

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for charcoal, however, may lead to increasing impacts on forests, food, and water resources, and may even create additional pressures on the climate system. Here we assess how different charcoal scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP relate to potential biomass supply. For this, we use the energy model TIMER to project the demand for fuelwood and charcoal for different socio-economic pathways for urban and rural populations, globally, and for four tropical regions (Central America, South America, Africa and Indonesia. Second, we assess whether the biomass demands for each scenario can be met with current and projected forest biomass estimated with remote sensing and modeled Net Primary Productivity (NPP using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS. Currently one third of residential energy use is based on traditional bioenergy, including charcoal. Globally, biomass needs by urban households by 2100 under the most sustainable scenario, SSP1, are of 14.4 mi ton biomass for charcoal plus 17.1 mi ton biomass for fuelwood (31.5 mi ton biomass in total. Under SSP3, the least sustainable scenario, we project a need of 205 mi tons biomass for charcoal plus 243.8 mi ton biomass for fuelwood by 2100 (total of 450 mi ton biomass. Africa and South America contribute the most for this biomass demand, however, all areas are able to meet the demand. We find that the future of the charcoal sector is not dire. Charcoal represents a small fraction of the energy requirements, but its biomass demands are disproportionate and in some regions require a large fraction of forest. This could be because of large growing populations moving to urban areas

An integrated approach to energy supply and demand: The role of nuclear energy in Southern Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neethling, D C; Bredell, J H; Basson, J A [National Energy Council, Lynnwood Ridge (South Africa)

1990-06-01

The importance of an integrated approach to the development of an electricity strategy for Southern Africa is emphasized in view of the numerous options and initiatives that are available for supply and demand side management. Apart from present uncertainties concerning future electricity demand, other factors such as the availability of coal and uranium and the comparative costs of nuclear and coal-based electricity are regarded as the most important parameters which have as yet not been sufficiently quantified to decide on the timing and extent of nuclear energy in Southern Africa. (author)

An integrated approach to energy supply and demand: The role of nuclear energy in Southern Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neethling, D.C.; Bredell, J.H.; Basson, J.A.

1990-01-01

The importance of an integrated approach to the development of an electricity strategy for Southern Africa is emphasized in view of the numerous options and initiatives that are available for supply and demand side management. Apart from present uncertainties concerning future electricity demand, other factors such as the availability of coal and uranium and the comparative costs of nuclear and coal-based electricity are regarded as the most important parameters which have as yet not been sufficiently quantified to decide on the timing and extent of nuclear energy in Southern Africa. (author)

Energy Management in Smart Cities Based on Internet of Things: Peak Demand Reduction and Energy Savings.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahapatra, Chinmaya; Moharana, Akshaya Kumar; Leung, Victor C M

2017-12-05

Around the globe, innovation with integrating information and communication technologies (ICT) with physical infrastructure is a top priority for governments in pursuing smart, green living to improve energy efficiency, protect the environment, improve the quality of life, and bolster economy competitiveness. Cities today faces multifarious challenges, among which energy efficiency of homes and residential dwellings is a key requirement. Achieving it successfully with the help of intelligent sensors and contextual systems would help build smart cities of the future. In a Smart home environment Home Energy Management plays a critical role in finding a suitable and reliable solution to curtail the peak demand and achieve energy conservation. In this paper, a new method named as Home Energy Management as a Service (HEMaaS) is proposed which is based on neural network based Q -learning algorithm. Although several attempts have been made in the past to address similar problems, the models developed do not cater to maximize the user convenience and robustness of the system. In this paper, authors have proposed an advanced Neural Fitted Q -learning method which is self-learning and adaptive. The proposed method provides an agile, flexible and energy efficient decision making system for home energy management. A typical Canadian residential dwelling model has been used in this paper to test the proposed method. Based on analysis, it was found that the proposed method offers a fast and viable solution to reduce the demand and conserve energy during peak period. It also helps reducing the carbon footprint of residential dwellings. Once adopted, city blocks with significant residential dwellings can significantly reduce the total energy consumption by reducing or shifting their energy demand during peak period. This would definitely help local power distribution companies to optimize their resources and keep the tariff low due to curtailment of peak demand.

Energy Management in Smart Cities Based on Internet of Things: Peak Demand Reduction and Energy Savings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chinmaya Mahapatra

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Around the globe, innovation with integrating information and communication technologies (ICT with physical infrastructure is a top priority for governments in pursuing smart, green living to improve energy efficiency, protect the environment, improve the quality of life, and bolster economy competitiveness. Cities today faces multifarious challenges, among which energy efficiency of homes and residential dwellings is a key requirement. Achieving it successfully with the help of intelligent sensors and contextual systems would help build smart cities of the future. In a Smart home environment Home Energy Management plays a critical role in finding a suitable and reliable solution to curtail the peak demand and achieve energy conservation. In this paper, a new method named as Home Energy Management as a Service (HEMaaS is proposed which is based on neural network based Q-learning algorithm. Although several attempts have been made in the past to address similar problems, the models developed do not cater to maximize the user convenience and robustness of the system. In this paper, authors have proposed an advanced Neural Fitted Q-learning method which is self-learning and adaptive. The proposed method provides an agile, flexible and energy efficient decision making system for home energy management. A typical Canadian residential dwelling model has been used in this paper to test the proposed method. Based on analysis, it was found that the proposed method offers a fast and viable solution to reduce the demand and conserve energy during peak period. It also helps reducing the carbon footprint of residential dwellings. Once adopted, city blocks with significant residential dwellings can significantly reduce the total energy consumption by reducing or shifting their energy demand during peak period. This would definitely help local power distribution companies to optimize their resources and keep the tariff low due to curtailment of peak demand.

Energy demand and population change.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, E L; Edmonds, J A

1981-09-01

During the post World War 2 years energy consumption has grown 136% while population grew about 51%; per capita consumption of energy expanded, therefore, about 60%. For a given population size, demographic changes mean an increase in energy needs; for instance the larger the group of retirement age people, the smaller their energy needs than are those for a younger group. Estimates indicate that by the year 2000 the energy impact will be toward higher per capita consumption with 60% of the population in the 19-61 age group of workers. Rising female labor force participation will increase the working group even more; it has also been found that income and energy grow at a proportional rate. The authors predict that gasoline consumption within the US will continue to rise with availability considering the larger number of female drivers and higher per capita incomes. The flow of illegal aliens (750,000/year) will have a major impact on income and will use greater amounts of energy than can be expected. A demographic change which will lower energy demands will be the slowdown of the rate of household formation caused by the falling number of young adults. The response of energy demand to price changes is small and slow but incomes play a larger role as does the number of personal automobiles and social changes affecting household formation. Households, commercial space, transportation, and industry are part of every demand analysis and population projections play a major role in determining these factors.

World energy: the facts and the future. 2. ed.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hedley, Don.

1986-01-01

The world energy situation is examined. Since the first edition of the book was written, the 1979 oil price rise has added weight to the argument that the economics of the second half of the twentieth century have been dominated by the economics of the barrel of oil. This book looks at the major fuels available - coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear energy and electricity. Each is considered in turn, looking at the reserves, costs, demand and the prospects for the future. Questions about the fuels discussed in the book include: how far will the price of oil fall, can nuclear power ever gain full public acceptance, can conservation be the 'fifth fuel', when will the development of synthetic fuels and renewable energy sources regain momentum. The energy supply and demand throughout the world is then presented taking each country, or group of countries in turn and considering each fuel. The future is then considered -prospects for synthetic fuels, renewable energy sources, eg wind and solar power and nuclear fusion. 115 tables present the data on which the book is based and its conclusions drawn. (UK)

The world energy demand in 2007: How high oil prices impact the global energy demand? June 9, 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

How high oil prices impact the global energy demand? The growth of energy demand continued to accelerate in 2007 despite soaring prices, to reach 2,8 % (+ 0,3 point compared to 2006). This evolution results from two diverging trends: a shrink in energy consumption in most of OECD countries, except North America, and a strong increase in emerging countries. Within the OECD, two contrasting trends can be reported, that compensate each other partially: the reduction of energy consumption in Japan (-0.8%) and in Europe (-1.2%), particularly significant in the EU-15 (-1.9%); the increase of energy consumption in North America (+2%). Globally, the OECD overall consumption continued to increase slightly (+0.5%), while electricity increased faster (2,1%) and fuels remained stable. Elsewhere, the strong energy demand growth remained very dynamic (+5% for the total demand, 8% for electricity only), driven by China (+7.3%). The world oil demand increased by 1% only, but the demand has focused even more on captive end usages, transports and petrochemistry. The world gasoline and diesel demand increased by around 5,7% in 2007, and represents 53% of the total oil products demand in 2007 (51% in 2006). If gasoline and diesel consumption remained quasi-stable within OECD countries, the growth has been extremely strong in the emerging countries, despite booming oil prices. There are mainly two factors explaining this evolution where both oil demand and oil prices increased: Weak elasticity-prices to the demand in transport and petrochemistry sectors Disconnection of domestic fuel prices in major emerging countries (China, India, Latin America) compared to world oil market prices Another striking point is that world crude oil and condensate production remained almost stable in 2007, hence the entire demand growth was supported by destocking. During the same period, the OPEC production decreased by 1%, mainly due to the production decrease in Saudi Arabia, that is probably more

Sensitivity analysis of energy demands on performance of CCHP system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, C.Z.; Shi, Y.M.; Huang, X.H.

2008-01-01

Sensitivity analysis of energy demands is carried out in this paper to study their influence on performance of CCHP system. Energy demand is a very important and complex factor in the optimization model of CCHP system. Average, uncertainty and historical peaks are adopted to describe energy demands. The mix-integer nonlinear programming model (MINLP) which can reflect the three aspects of energy demands is established. Numerical studies are carried out based on energy demands of a hotel and a hospital. The influence of average, uncertainty and peaks of energy demands on optimal facility scheme and economic advantages of CCHP system are investigated. The optimization results show that the optimal GT's capacity and economy of CCHP system mainly lie on the average energy demands. Sum of capacities of GB and HE is equal to historical heating demand peaks, and sum of capacities of AR and ER are equal to historical cooling demand peaks. Maximum of PG is sensitive with historical peaks of energy demands and not influenced by uncertainty of energy demands, while the corresponding influence on DH is adverse

Norwegian Residential Energy Demand: Coordinated use of a System Engineering and a Macroeconomic Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tor A Johnsen

1996-07-01

Full Text Available In Norway, the system engineering model MARKAL and the macroeconomic model MSG-EE are both used in studies of national CO2 controlling strategies. MARKAL is a linear programming model that calculates a composite set of technologies necessary to meet demand and environmental constraints at minimised total energy expenditure. MSG-EE is an applied general equilibrium model including the link between economic activity, energy demand and emissions to air. MSG-EE has a theory consistent description of the link between income, prices and energy demand, but the representation of technological improvements is simple. MARKAL has a sophisticated description of future energy technology options, but includes no feedback to the general economy. A project for studying the potential for a coordinated use of these two models was initiated and funded by the Norwegian Research Council (NFR. This paper gives a brief presentation of the two models. Results from independent model calculations show that MARKAL gives a signficant lower residential energy demand than MSG-EE does. This is explained by major differences in modelling approach. A first attempt of coordinating the residential energy demand in the models is reported. This attempt shows that implementing results from MARKAL, in MSG-EE for the residential sector alone gives little impact on the general economy. A further development of an iteration procedure between the models should include all energy using sectors.

Power without manpower: Forecasting labour demand for Estonian energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meriküll, Jaanika; Eamets, Raul; Humal, Katrin; Espenberg, Kerly

2012-01-01

As energy demand and prices continue to grow, oil shale might help mitigate the energy crisis—it can widely be found all over the world but so far has not been widely used. Estonia is unique in the world for producing a large majority of energy out of oil shale and has been set as an example in numerous papers covering oil shale deposits, technology etc. This paper is the first to analyse oil shale energy related workforce and provides scenario forecasts of the labour demand for the Estonian energy sector in 2010–2020. The contribution of the paper is twofold. First, the paper provides a valuable insight into oil shale energy related workforce, enabling to take into consideration the educational needs in countries where oil shale industry might be set up. Second, methodology-wise, the paper relates labour demand and supply to different scenarios of energy production capacities. The results illustrate problems related to aging of the workforce in energy production. If the existing trends continue in educational attainment in Estonia, there will be a serious shortage of high-skilled engineering and manufacturing specialists. Our method provides a simple yet reliable enough way to check for such problems early enough. - Highlights: ► This paper analyses oil shale energy related workforce and provides scenario forecasts. ► This is the first study to investigate the workforce related to oil shale energy production. ► The main workforce-related problem in the sector is ageing of the workforce. ► Workers immigrating to the sector during the Soviet times are at the retirement age. ► There will be a serious shortage of engineers for energy sector in the near future.

Geo-economy of world energy supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gauthier, Jean-Michel

2009-01-01

For over 50 years now, the global primary energy demand structure has been based on fossil fuels for more than 80%. In 25 years, our energy needs will still be covered by an over 80% fossil energy mix according to the reference scenario of most energy agencies. Over this period of time, the economics of energy will be radically altered as a result of a long term sustained global demand of energy and a growing constraint on some hydrocarbon production, conventional oil in particular. The oil production profile on currently operated oil fields, essentially in the OECD, will further decline or require significantly increasing investments. Non conventional oil sources are already proving to be even more capital-intensive. In the face of dwindling reserves in the old OECD hydrocarbon basins, the only resource-rich region in the world with low extraction costs and available swing supply capacities is the Middle East. Tomorrow's oil industry and markets will therefore represent a risk concentrated around a single region in the world, whilst the global gas industry will face a risk concentrated around two regions in the world, including Russia and the Middle East. Massive investments in energy infrastructures will be necessary to bring gas from these two sources to the remote markets in Asia, Europe or the US. The era of cheap energy is definitely gone. Far from being an obsolete fuel, coal is and will remain the most abundant, competitive and favoured source of energy for power generation across the world. CO_2 emissions from coal use are coal's only handicap. The vision of our energy future is in front of us: the environment will be filthy, energy will be costly and geopolitical tensions between producers and consumers will be strong

Future energy perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Halsnaes, K.; Christensen, J.M. [Risoe National Lab., Systems Analysis Dept., Roskilde (Denmark)

2002-10-01

Future energy perspectives: 1) The global energy consumption will continue to grow primarily in developing countries, their share of global energy consumption will grow from approx. 35% in 1990 to 60% in 2050. 2) Policy focus will be primarily on environmental concerns in the industrial countries and on energy for development and access to energy for the poor in developing countries. 3) With global climate concerns and the implementation of the Kyoto protocol, global environment issues will have increased prominence in energy sector priorities. 4) Fossil fuel resources are on a global level still abundant and prices are expected to be relatively low in the short to medium term. 5) Energy supply security has for geopolitical reasons become an increasing concern especially in the US and the EU. 6) Significant investments are required to ensure development of new clean energy technologies for introduction in the medium to long term. 7) Market reforms are being implemented in almost all regions of the world changing both the investment and policy regimes. 8) International studies (IPCC and WEC) have analysed several alternative energy scenarios Alternative policies and priorities can lead to a wide range of different energy futures. 9) WEC middle scenario B, from 1990 to 2050; predicts growth in GDP 3.5 times and primary energy consumption 2.2 times and CO{sub 2} 1.5 times. This scenario is expecting supply to be dominated by fossil fuel (80% in 1990 and still 65% in 2050), with high share of natural gas and nuclear with slow growth in renewable energy. 10) A more radical scenario (C1) is expecting renewable energy such as biomass, solar and wind to contribute 27% in 2050; declining oil and coal; increased use of natural gas and a minor contribution from nuclear. A development path like this require significant near-term investments in technology research and development. 11) The large increase in global energy demand in the next century will require large investments

Future energy perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halsnaes, K.; Christensen, J.M.

2002-01-01

Future energy perspectives: 1) The global energy consumption will continue to grow primarily in developing countries, their share of global energy consumption will grow from approx. 35% in 1990 to 60% in 2050. 2) Policy focus will be primarily on environmental concerns in the industrial countries and on energy for development and access to energy for the poor in developing countries. 3) With global climate concerns and the implementation of the Kyoto protocol, global environment issues will have increased prominence in energy sector priorities. 4) Fossil fuel resources are on a global level still abundant and prices are expected to be relatively low in the short to medium term. 5) Energy supply security has for geopolitical reasons become an increasing concern especially in the US and the EU. 6) Significant investments are required to ensure development of new clean energy technologies for introduction in the medium to long term. 7) Market reforms are being implemented in almost all regions of the world changing both the investment and policy regimes. 8) International studies (IPCC and WEC) have analysed several alternative energy scenarios Alternative policies and priorities can lead to a wide range of different energy futures. 9) WEC middle scenario B, from 1990 to 2050; predicts growth in GDP 3.5 times and primary energy consumption 2.2 times and CO 2 1.5 times. This scenario is expecting supply to be dominated by fossil fuel (80% in 1990 and still 65% in 2050), with high share of natural gas and nuclear with slow growth in renewable energy. 10) A more radical scenario (C1) is expecting renewable energy such as biomass, solar and wind to contribute 27% in 2050; declining oil and coal; increased use of natural gas and a minor contribution from nuclear. A development path like this require significant near-term investments in technology research and development. 11) The large increase in global energy demand in the next century will require large investments. The

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE INCREASING DEMAND FOR ENERGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Perticas Diana

2012-07-01

Full Text Available During human society’s development on large geographical areas, a series of cultural systems have appeared and have determined a certain approach concerning the environment and social relations. These systems of thought persist even today and they are strongly influenced by individuals’ thinking and approaches in that society, thing that requires a specific approach for the implementation of these relatively new concepts (e.g. sustainable development, pollution, ecological approaches on social life. Furthermore, the continuous growth of the demand for energy in the world is seen as an alarm. Between 1970 and 1997 world energy consumption has almost doubled and it is projected to grow by about 57% during 2004-2030 and the thing which should be mentioned is that with the increasing energy demand, pollution levels will increase too. But we must not forget that electric and thermal power represent one of the basic needs of mankind, and when the fulfilment of this need started to affect the climate and implicitly human health this problem turned into a hardly manageable one. We must not forget that the world’s population is growing rapidly and the level of pollution per capita increased we might even say in direct proportion. In many cases, increased pollution has its explanation in the growing number of individuals at global level and also the increasing needs, desires, aspirations, standard of living, of these. This paper intends to objectively analyse the interconnections that arise between the environment and the growth of the demand for energy, emphasizing the devastating effects of pollution created by burning fossil fuels in order to obtain electric and thermal power as well as the current and future possibilities for the replacement of these energy reserves with renewable energy reserves. The whole analysis will be accompanied by case studies and will follow strictly imposed goals by sustainable development.

Future land-use related water demand in California

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2016-01-01

Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed (municipal and industrial) and agricultural land use to estimate associated water use demand from 2012 to 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total water use was projected to increase 1.8 billion cubic meters(+4.1%) driven primarily by urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Only if currently mandated 25% reductions in municipal water use are continuously implemented would water demand in 2062 balance to water use levels in 2012. This is the first modeling effort of its kind to examine regional land-use related water demand incorporating historical trends of both developed and agricultural land uses.

Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wadud, Zia; Dey, Himadri S.; Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I.

2011-01-01

Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: → Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. → Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. → Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. → Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. → Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wadud, Zia, E-mail: ziawadud@yahoo.com [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh); Dey, Himadri S. [University of Notre Dame (United States); Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I. [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh)

2011-11-15

Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: > Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. > Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. > Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. > Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. > Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

Energy futures project : backgrounder for consultation sessions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhargava, A.

2006-05-01

The National Energy Board periodically publishes a long-term energy and demand report as part of an ongoing monitoring program. The next report is planned for release in 2007. This background document provided background information to ensure that consultation participants have a common understanding of key issues to be addressed during the cross-country consultations that have been planned before the release of the final version of the report. An outline of the proposed analytical approach was presented, as well as details of major assumptions and scenario storylines. Scenario themes included: economic, energy and environmental sustainability; a security-focused world shaped by war and civil strife; and strong global economic growth fueled by the rapid growth of the Chinese and Indian economies. A methodology overview was provided as well as a reference case. Issues related to energy supply included oil; natural gas liquids; natural gas; and electricity. Issues related to energy demand included the residential sector; the commercial sector; the industrial sector; and the transportation sector. Historical trends and forecasts were outlined using the macroeconomic variable of interest. Supply, demand, and supporting infrastructure across all energy forms within a North American and global context were considered. The impact of environmental management strategies were reviewed, as well as the role of the government in shaping policies. It was concluded that the purpose of the final report is to serve as a standard of references for parties interested in Canadian energy issues and trends as well as to inform decision makers of key risks and uncertainties facing the energy future.9 tabs., 1 fig

Energy savings through self-backhauling for future heterogeneous networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faruk, Nasir; Ruttik, Kalle; Mutafungwa, Edward; Jäntti, Riku

2016-01-01

Mobile operators face continuous challenge of enhancing network capacity and coverage so as to meet demand for ubiquitous high-speed mobile data connectivity. Unfortunately, these enhancements are typically accompanied by increased burden of network energy consumption. Heterogeneous network (HetNet) deployments of a large number of low power small base stations (SBS) to complement existing macro base stations is an approach that increases network capacity but potentially reduces overall network energy consumption. The SBS backhaul links in HetNets present a significant powering burden. In this paper, we show how self backhauling of SBS can reduce overall network power demand. A backhaul-energy consumption model is developed and used to investigate the energy efficiency of different backhauling options. We note that significant energy savings could be achieved through the use of self-backhauling when compared with the conventional microwave backhauling. The results presented would provide guidelines for energy- and cost-efficient backhaul implementation for future HetNets. - Highlights: • A backhaul-energy consumption model is developed. • Self backhauling of small base stations can reduce overall network power demand. • Energy saving strategy presented would relieved the burden on the power networks. • Results provide guidelines for energy and cost effective backhaul implementation.

Energy demands in the 21st century: the role of biofuels in a developing country

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quaye, E.C.

1996-01-01

In most developing countries more than 25% of total energy use comes from biofuels. In Ghana, the figure is between 70-80%. Bioenergy is mainly used for cooking and heating, and is also important in rural or cottage industries. As a developing country, Ghana's economic growth remains coupled to the availability and supply of energy. About 29% of this energy is obtained through hydropower and imported petroleum. The two hydropower installations generate about 1102 MW annually mainly for domestic and industrial uses. At the current 3.0% average annual population growth rate, a population of about 35 million is expected by 2025. Coupled with the country's efforts to promote industrialization, future energy demand is expected to increase several fold. This paper provides an overview of Ghana's current energy situation and discusses the role of bioenergy in the future energy demand of the country. The paper concludes with a recommendation for a major shift in energy policy to accommodate the conversion of biofuels into versatile energy carriers in a decentralised system to meet the energy requirements of the people and to provide a basis for rural development and employment. (Author)

Risoe energy report 4: The future energy system - distributed production and use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larsen, Hans; Soenderberg Petersen, L.

2005-10-01

The world is facing major challenges in providing energy services to meet the future needs of the developed world and the growing needs of developing countries. These challenges are exacerbated by the need to provide energy services with due respect to economic growth, sustainability and security of supply. Today, the world's energy system is based mainly on oil, gas and coal, which together supply around 80% of our primary energy. Only around 0.5% of primary energy comes from renewable sources such as wind, solar and geothermal. Despite the rapid development of new energy technologies, the world will continue to depend on fossil fuels for several decades to come - and global primary energy demand is forecasted to grow by 60% between 2002 and 2030. The expected post Kyoto targets call for significant CO 2 reductions, increasing the demand to decouple the energy and transport systems from fossil fuels. There is a strong need for closer links between electricity, heat and other energy carriers, including links to the transport sector. On a national scale Denmark has three main characteristics. Firstly, it has a diverse and distributed energy system based on the power grid, the district heating grid and the natural gas grid. Secondly, renewable energy, especially wind power, plays an increasingly important role in the Danish energy system. Thirdly, Denmark's geographical location allows it to act as a buffer between the energy systems of the European continent and the Nordic countries. Energy systems can be made more robust by decentralising both power generation and control. Distributed generation (DG) is characterised by a variety of energy production technologies integrated into the electricity supply system, and the ability of different segments of the grid to operate autonomously. The use of a more distributed power generation system would be an important element in the protection of the consumers against power interruptions and blackouts, whether caused by

Factors influencing energy demand in dairy farming | Kraatz | South ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The efficiency of energy utilization is one of the key indicators for developing more sustainable agricultural practices. Factors influencing the energy demand in dairy farming are the cumulative energy demand for feed-supply, milk yield as well as the replacement rate of cows. The energy demand of dairy farming is ...

Modelling the potential consequences of future worldwide biomass energy demand for the french forests and timber

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buongiorno, Joseph; Raunikar, Ronald; Zhu, Shushuai

2011-01-01

This article describes an investigation conducted, using a world model for the forestry and forest-based industries, on the effects of the current unpredictable changes in worldwide demand for biomass energy on this sector in France. Two contrasting scenarios are tested. The results are commented and the potential conflict between various would uses - workable timber, industrial timber and dendro-energy - is underscored. (authors)

Long term building energy demand for India: Disaggregating end use energy services in an integrated assessment modeling framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

2014-01-01

With increasing population, income, and urbanization, meeting the energy service demands for the building sector will be a huge challenge for Indian energy policy. Although there is broad consensus that the Indian building sector will grow and evolve over the coming century, there is little understanding of the potential nature of this evolution over the longer term. The present study uses a technologically detailed, service based building energy model nested in the long term, global, integrated assessment framework, GCAM, to produce scenarios of the evolution of the Indian buildings sector up through the end of the century. The results support the idea that as India evolves toward developed country per-capita income levels, its building sector will largely evolve to resemble those of the currently developed countries (heavy reliance on electricity both for increasing cooling loads and a range of emerging appliance and other plug loads), albeit with unique characteristics based on its climate conditions (cooling dominating heating and even more so with climate change), on fuel preferences that may linger from the present (for example, a preference for gas for cooking), and vestiges of its development path (including remnants of rural poor that use substantial quantities of traditional biomass). - Highlights: ► Building sector final energy demand in India will grow to over five times by century end. ► Space cooling and appliance services will grow substantially in the future. ► Energy service demands will be met predominantly by electricity and gas. ► Urban centers will face huge demand for floor space and building energy services. ► Carbon tax policy will have little effect on reducing building energy demands

Household energy demand. Empirical studies concerning Sweden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dargay, J; Lundin, A

1978-06-01

This paper investigates the effects of energy policy on households in Sweden and provides the material necessary for evaluation of current and proposed energy-conservation measures. Emphasis is placed on the impact of enery taxation or price changes on household demand for electricity, heating oil, and gasoline and the consequences of such measures for income distribution. The results of the Swedish studies of household demand for heating oil and gasoline indicate that price changes can have a considerable long run impact on fuel utilization. In the short run, price responsiveness is notably reduced, but it is nevertheless of consequence for energy demand.

Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de, E-mail: fabio@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Nuclear and Engineering Center; Imakuma, Kengo, E-mail: kimakuma@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Information Technology Development Dept.

2011-07-01

This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de; Imakuma, Kengo

2011-01-01

This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

Energy in Latin America: Present and future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ortiz, Johnny N; Sheffield, John W [University of Missouri-Rolla (United States)

1997-07-01

The primary focus of this paper is on the analysis of the current situation of energy production and consumption in the region as a whole, to examine the determinants of energy supply and demand growth, and to forecast the future growth of energy production, consumption, and balances. Since the growth of oil demand in Latin American countries themselves began to accelerate in the early 1990s, the lack of investment and development and the consequence shrinking base of Latin America's energy exports may pose serious challenges to North America, where dependence on the Middle Eastern oil and gas is growing. This paper attempts to present different scenarios and strategies to tackle the problem of Latin America's future net energy supply. [Spanish] El enfoque principal de este articulo es sobre la base de la situacion actual de la produccion y consumo de energia en la region como un todo, para examinar las determinantes del suministro de energia y el crecimiento de la demanda y la prediccion del crecimiento futuro de la produccion de energia, consumo y balances. Desde el crecimiento de la demanda del petroleo, en los paises latinoamericanos, ellos mismos empezaron a acelerar a principios de los 90s, la falta de inversion y desarrollo y la consecuencia del encogimiento de la base de las exportaciones de energia de Latinoamerica podrian imponer serios retos a Norte America, en donde la dependencia del petroleo y del gas del Medio-Oeste esta creciendo. Este articulo intenta presentar diferentes escenarios y estrategias para atacar el problema del suministro neto de energia de Latinoamerica.

Option value of electricity demand response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sezgen, Osman; Goldman, C.A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley CA 94720 (United States); Krishnarao, P. [Citigroup Energy Inc., 1301 Fannin St, Houston, TX 77002 (United States)

2007-02-15

As electricity markets deregulate and energy tariffs increasingly expose customers to commodity price volatility, it is difficult for energy consumers to assess the economic value of investments in technologies that manage electricity demand in response to changing energy prices. The key uncertainties in evaluating the economics of demand-response technologies are the level and volatility of future wholesale energy prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that financial engineering methodologies originally developed for pricing equity and commodity derivatives (e.g., futures, swaps, options) can be used to estimate the value of demand-response technologies. We adapt models used to value energy options and assets to value three common demand-response strategies: load curtailment, load shifting or displacement, and short-term fuel substitution-specifically, distributed generation. These option models represent an improvement to traditional discounted cash flow methods for assessing the relative merits of demand-side technology investments in restructured electricity markets. (author)

Option value of electricity demand response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sezgen, Osman; Goldman, C.A.; Krishnarao, P.

2007-01-01

As electricity markets deregulate and energy tariffs increasingly expose customers to commodity price volatility, it is difficult for energy consumers to assess the economic value of investments in technologies that manage electricity demand in response to changing energy prices. The key uncertainties in evaluating the economics of demand-response technologies are the level and volatility of future wholesale energy prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that financial engineering methodologies originally developed for pricing equity and commodity derivatives (e.g., futures, swaps, options) can be used to estimate the value of demand-response technologies. We adapt models used to value energy options and assets to value three common demand-response strategies: load curtailment, load shifting or displacement, and short-term fuel substitution-specifically, distributed generation. These option models represent an improvement to traditional discounted cash flow methods for assessing the relative merits of demand-side technology investments in restructured electricity markets. (author)

Measuring the security of energy exports demand in OPEC economies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dike, Jude Chukwudi

2013-01-01

One of the objectives of OPEC is the security of demand for the crude oil exports of its members. Achieving this objective is imperative with the projected decline in OECD countries' crude oil demand among other crude oil demand shocks. This paper focuses on determining the external crude oil demand security risks of OPEC member states. In assessing these risks, this study introduces two indexes. The first index, Risky Energy Exports Demand (REED), indicates the level of energy export demand security risks for OPEC members. It combines measures of export dependence, economic dependence, monopsony risk and transportation risk. The second index, Contribution to OPEC Risk Exposure (CORE), indicates the individual contribution of the OPEC members to OPEC's risk exposure. This study utilises the disaggregated index approach in measuring energy demand security risks for crude oil and natural gas and involves a country level analysis. With the disaggregated approach, the study shows that OPEC's energy export demand security risks differ across countries and energy types. - Highlights: • REED and CORE indexes are suitable measures for energy exports demand security risk. • The indexes show that energy demand security risk is different for each OPEC country. • The countries contribution to OPEC's energy demand security risk is also different. • The outcome is necessary for OPEC's common energy and climate change policies. • The outcome makes a case for oil demand security as a topical issue in the literature

The future of energy markets: tensions between the conflicting demands of competition and politics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wild, E.

2000-01-01

It clearly shows that the whole energy sector is on the move, pulled this way and that by the conflicting demands of competition and politics. The utilities face enormous pressure on costs, while customers enjoy an unprecedented measure of freedom. No one can avoid the pressure of the market, not even politicians. The latter should recognize that there is no point in hobbling an industry that has to face up to the European competition, and that fair conditions of competition are essential. If the political conditions are right, the current tensions may ultimately turn out to be fruitful and release new energies from which all will profit. (orig.) [de

The structure of residential energy demand in Greece

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rapanos, Vassilis T.; Polemis, Michael L.

2006-01-01

This paper attempts to shed light on the determinants of residential energy demand in Greece, and to compare it with some other OECD countries. From the estimates of the short-run and long-run elasticities of energy demand for the period 1965-1999, we find that residential energy demand appears to be price inelastic. Also, we do not find evidence of a structural change probably because of the low efficiency of the energy sector. We find, however, that the magnitude of the income elasticity varies substantially between Greece and other OECD countries

Transport and energy policy. Looking to the future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aaltonen, T [European Commission (Belgium)

1996-12-01

In the quest of filling human needs, transport and energy do not appear to be the most exciting territories. They come in only later in the vast chain of commodities and services necessary in the smooth operation of a modern market economy. However, current concerns about pollution and the future of our planet have lifted these issues to the top of the agenda. The objective of this paper is to give a glance at the complexity of possible futures facing us. Indeed, one of the main objectives is to show that there are different paths to be taken and we can influence our future. Furthermore, it will be shown that a key element in planning for different futures is the proper choice of energy policy objectives and instruments. An even bigger impact could be expected from the changing paradigms in transport demand patterns. (au)

Analysis of the Syrian long-term energy and electricity demand projection using the end-use methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hainoun, A.; Seif-Eldin, M.K.; Almoustafa, S.

2006-01-01

A comprehensive analysis of the possible future long-term development of Syrian energy and electricity demand covering the period 1999-2030 is presented. The analysis was conducted using the IAEA's model MAED, which relies upon the end-use approach. This model has been validated during the last two decades through the successful application in many developing countries, even those having partial market economy and energy subsidy. Starting from the base year, final energy consumption distributed by energy forms and consumption sectors, the future energy and electricity demand has been projected according to three different scenarios reflecting the possible future demographic, socio-economic and technological development of the country. These scenarios are constructed to cover a plausible range, in which future evolution factors affecting energy demand are expected to lie. The first is a high economy scenario (HS) representing the reference case, which is characterized by high gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (average annual about 6%) and moderate improved technologies in the various consumption sectors. The second is an energy efficiency scenario (ES), which is identical to HS in all main parameters except these relating to the efficiency improvement and conservation measures. Here, high technology improvement and more effective conservation measures in all consumption sectors are proposed and the role of solar to substitute fossil energy for heating purposes is considered effectively. The third is a low economy scenario (LS) with low GDP growth rate (average annual about 3.5%) and less technology improvement in the consumption sectors. As a consequence, the improvement in the energy efficiency is low and the influence of conservation measures is less effective. Starting from about 10.5mtoe final energy in the base year, the analysis shows that the projected energy demand will grow annually at average rates of 5%, 4.5% and 3% for the HS, ES and LS

Web-based energy information systems for energy management and demand response in commercial buildings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Motegi, Naoya; Piette, Mary Ann; Kinney, Satkartar; Herter, Karen

2003-04-18

Energy Information Systems (EIS) for buildings are becoming widespread in the U.S., with more companies offering EIS products every year. As a result, customers are often overwhelmed by the quickly expanding portfolio of EIS feature and application options, which have not been clearly identified for consumers. The object of this report is to provide a technical overview of currently available EIS products. In particular, this report focuses on web-based EIS products for large commercial buildings, which allow data access and control capabilities over the Internet. EIS products combine software, data acquisition hardware, and communication systems to collect, analyze and display building information to aid commercial building energy managers, facility managers, financial managers and electric utilities in reducing energy use and costs in buildings. Data types commonly processed by EIS include energy consumption data; building characteristics; building system data, such as heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) and lighting data; weather data; energy price signals; and energy demand-response event information. This project involved an extensive review of research and trade literature to understand the motivation for EIS technology development. This study also gathered information on currently commercialized EIS. This review is not an exhaustive analysis of all EIS products; rather, it is a technical framework and review of current products on the market. This report summarizes key features available in today's EIS, along with a categorization framework to understand the relationship between EIS, Energy Management and Control Systems (EMCSs), and similar technologies. Four EIS types are described: Basic Energy Information Systems (Basic-EIS); Demand Response Systems (DRS); Enterprise Energy Management (EEM); and Web-based Energy Management and Control Systems (Web-EMCS). Within the context of these four categories, the following characteristics of EIS

Energy efficiency in the British housing stock: Energy demand and the Homes Energy Efficiency Database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, Ian G.; Steadman, Philip J.; Bruhns, Harry; Summerfield, Alex J.; Lowe, Robert

2013-01-01

The UK Government has unveiled an ambitious retrofit programme that seeks significant improvement to the energy efficiency of the housing stock. High quality data on the energy efficiency of buildings and their related energy demand is critical to supporting and targeting investment in energy efficiency. Using existing home improvement programmes over the past 15 years, the UK Government has brought together data on energy efficiency retrofits in approximately 13 million homes into the Homes Energy Efficiency Database (HEED), along with annual metered gas and electricity use for the period of 2004–2007. This paper describes the HEED sample and assesses its representativeness in terms of dwelling characteristics, the energy demand of different energy performance levels using linked gas and electricity meter data, along with an analysis of the impact retrofit measures has on energy demand. Energy savings are shown to be associated with the installation of loft and cavity insulation, and glazing and boiler replacement. The analysis illustrates this source of ‘in-action’ data can be used to provide empirical estimates of impacts of energy efficiency retrofit on energy demand and provides a source of empirical data from which to support the development of national housing energy efficiency retrofit policies. - Highlights: • The energy efficiency level for 50% of the British housing stock is described. • Energy demand is influenced by size and age and energy performance. • Housing retrofits (e.g. cavity insulation, glazing and boiler replacements) save energy. • Historic differences in energy performance show persistent long-term energy savings

Quantifying demand flexibility of power-to-heat and thermal energy storage in the control of building heating systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Finck, C.J.; Li, R.; Kramer, R.P.; Zeiler, W.

2018-01-01

In the future due to continued integration of renewable energy sources, demand-side flexibility would be required for managing power grids. Building energy systems will serve as one possible source of energy flexibility. The degree of flexibility provided by building energy systems is highly

Energy storage. Technologies and potentials to compensate supply and demand; Energiespeicherung. Technologien und Potentiale zum Ausgleich von Angebot und Nachfrage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kruhl, Joerg [E.ON New Build and Technology, Gelsenkirchen (Germany); Doll, Markus [RWE Power AG, Essen (Germany)

2011-07-01

Future energy systems will be based on a high proportion of renewable and fluctuating power generation. This will result in system states in which the merging of supply and demand represents a significant challenge. Energy storages are a measure to overcome this challenge. However, energy storages are not the sole solution. So there exist alternative measures such as network expansion and load management as a cost-effective solutions. Energy storages as an important building block for future energy systems must be a function of other measures such as network expansion and demand management designed specifically. This includes a financial support for technical development and also the attendance of the launch by means of appropriate economic incentives.

Identifying water price and population criteria for meeting future urban water demand targets

Science.gov (United States)

Ashoori, Negin; Dzombak, David A.; Small, Mitchell J.

2017-12-01

Predictive models for urban water demand can help identify the set of factors that must be satisfied in order to meet future targets for water demand. Some of the explanatory variables used in such models, such as service area population and changing temperature and rainfall rates, are outside the immediate control of water planners and managers. Others, such as water pricing and the intensity of voluntary water conservation efforts, are subject to decisions and programs implemented by the water utility. In order to understand this relationship, a multiple regression model fit to 44 years of monthly demand data (1970-2014) for Los Angeles, California was applied to predict possible future demand through 2050 under alternative scenarios for the explanatory variables: population, price, voluntary conservation efforts, and temperature and precipitation outcomes predicted by four global climate models with two CO2 emission scenarios. Future residential water demand in Los Angeles is projected to be largely driven by price and population rather than climate change and conservation. A median projection for the year 2050 indicates that residential water demand in Los Angeles will increase by approximately 36 percent, to a level of 620 million m3 per year. The Monte Carlo simulations of the fitted model for water demand were then used to find the set of conditions in the future for which water demand is predicted to be above or below the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power 2035 goal to reduce residential water demand by 25%. Results indicate that increases in price can not ensure that the 2035 water demand target can be met when population increases. Los Angeles must rely on furthering their conservation initiatives and increasing their use of stormwater capture, recycled water, and expanding their groundwater storage. The forecasting approach developed in this study can be utilized by other cities to understand the future of water demand in water-stressed areas

Risoe energy report 4: The future energy system - distributed production and use

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larsen, Hans; Soenderberg Petersen, L.

2005-10-01

The world is facing major challenges in providing energy services to meet the future needs of the developed world and the growing needs of developing countries. These challenges are exacerbated by the need to provide energy services with due respect to economic growth, sustainability and security of supply. Today, the world's energy system is based mainly on oil, gas and coal, which together supply around 80% of our primary energy. Only around 0.5% of primary energy comes from renewable sources such as wind, solar and geothermal. Despite the rapid development of new energy technologies, the world will continue to depend on fossil fuels for several decades to come - and global primary energy demand is forecasted to grow by 60% between 2002 and 2030. The expected post Kyoto targets call for significant CO{sub 2} reductions, increasing the demand to decouple the energy and transport systems from fossil fuels. There is a strong need for closer links between electricity, heat and other energy carriers, including links to the transport sector. On a national scale Denmark has three main characteristics. Firstly, it has a diverse and distributed energy system based on the power grid, the district heating grid and the natural gas grid. Secondly, renewable energy, especially wind power, plays an increasingly important role in the Danish energy system. Thirdly, Denmark's geographical location allows it to act as a buffer between the energy systems of the European continent and the Nordic countries. Energy systems can be made more robust by decentralising both power generation and control. Distributed generation (DG) is characterised by a variety of energy production technologies integrated into the electricity supply system, and the ability of different segments of the grid to operate autonomously. The use of a more distributed power generation system would be an important element in the protection of the consumers against power interruptions and blackouts, whether

Energy Demand and Supply Analysis and Outlook - Energy Forecast for 2001 and Policy Issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Na, In Gang; Ryu, Ji Chul [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

2000-12-01

The energy consumption in Korea has grown at impressive rates during the last 3 decades, along with the economic growth. The global concern about the environment issue and the restructuring in Korea energy industry has an effect on the pattern and trend of energy demand in Korea. Under the situation, this research are focusing on the analysis of energy consumption and forecast of energy demand. First of all, we analyze the trends and major characteristics of energy consumption, beginning with 1970s and up to the third quarter of 2000. In the analysis of energy consumption by energy types, we also perform qualitative analysis on the trends and characteristics of each energy types, including institutional analysis. In model section, we start with the brief description of synopsis and outline the survey on empirical models for energy demand. The econometric model used in KEEI's short-term energy forecast is outlined, followed by the result of estimations. The 2001 energy demand forecast is predicted in detail by sectors and energy types. In the year 2001, weak demand is projected to continue through the First Half, and pick up its pace of growth only in the Second Half. Projected total demand is 201.3 million TOE or 4.4% growth. In the last section, the major policy issues are summarized in three sub-sections: the restructuring in energy industry, the security of energy demand and supply, international energy cooperation including south-north energy cooperation. (author). 86 refs., 43 figs., 73 tabs.

World energy demand down for the first time in 30 years. Key findings of the world energy demand in 2009 by Enerdata based its global energy database - 8 June 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

Key findings of the world energy demand in 2009 by Enerdata based its global energy database: World energy demand down for the first time in 30 years. The first 2009 world energy industry data, now available in the Enerdata Yearbook, confirms trends identified in May 2010 by Enerdata analysts. The economic and financial crisis resulted in a reduction of world energy demand in 2009 by 1% or 130 Mtoe. It is the first demand decrease in 30 years, and the first decrease in electricity demand since World War II. (authors)

Nuclear energy - option for the future. Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

The goal of this conference was to analyse the future national and international problems arising with energy supplies with regard to the large mass flows and CO 2 flows involved in the use of nuclear energy. The following topics are dealt with: - nuclear energy, world-wide energy management and developments in Europe and Asia - disposal and ultimate waste disposal, plutonium management, an assessment of the Chernobyl accident 10 years on - new reactor developments in the energy mix - the costs arising with nuclear energy in the energy mix. In view of the demand made by climate researchers, to reduce CO 2 , and the additional construction work planned in the eastern and Asian areas, it will remain necessary for the Federal Republic of Germany,too, to maintain the know-how and technology for nuclear energy generation. (orig./DG)

Update of energy supply and demand 1983-2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-01-01

When a return to economic growth and prosperity occurs there is excellent potential for growth in electrical demand. This electrical growth will mainly come about through increases in total energy usage and through the substitution of electricity for oil, coal and, to a lesser extent, natural gas. The successful introduction of electricity use, either directly or indirectly, into the transportation sector would open up a very large market and make a major contribution to Canada's policy of energy self sufficiency. There are also significant growth areas in the residential and industrial sectors. The major challenge in the next decade will be to maintain a viable Canadian nuclear industry, so as to meet the probable upturn in electrical generating capacity required in the 1990's and beyond and to maintain and improve Canada's share of the nuclear export market. In order to achieve this active support should be given: 1) to building CANDU units in stations primarily devoted to exporting their electrical output to the U.S.A. 2) reactor exports. 3) inititatives to promote increased electrical home heating. 4) electricity substitution in the transportation and industrial fields. Canada has ample uranium resources to cover its own needs and potential exports in the foreseeable future. Because of the great development potential in the CANDU uranium/thorium fuel cycle nuclear energy should be considered as virtually a renewable resource with the best prospects for Canada's long-term energy self sufficiency. Increased productivity, through electric-based process inprovements, and the growth of electric-based high technology industries are both vital to Canada's future economic health. Nuclear produced electricity thus has a vital role to play far into the future

Energy futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Treat, J.E.

1990-01-01

This book provides fifteen of the futures industry's leading authorities with broader background in both theory and practice of energy futures trading in this updated text. The authors review the history of the futures market and the fundamentals of trading, hedging, and technical analysis; then they update you with the newest trends in energy futures trading - natural gas futures, options, regulations, and new information services. The appendices outline examples of possible contracts and their construction

Optimisation of Heating Energy Demand and Thermal Comfort of a Courtyard-Atrium Dwelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Taleghani, M.; Tenpierik, M.; Dobbelsteen, A.

2013-01-01

In the light of energy reduction, transitional spaces are recognised as ways to receive natural light and fresh air. This paper analyses the effects of courtyard and atrium as two types of transitional spaces on heating demand and thermal comfort of a Dutch low-rise dwelling, at current and future

Energy in Latin America: Present and future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ortiz, Johnny N; Sheffield, John W [University of Missouri-Rolla (United States)

1997-07-01

The primary focus of this paper is on the analysis of the current situation of energy production and consumption in the region as a whole, to examine the determinants of energy supply and demand growth, and to forecast the future growth of energy production, consumption, and balances. Since the growth of oil demand in Latin American countries themselves began to accelerate in the early 1990s, the lack of investment and development and the consequence shrinking base of Latin America's energy exports may pose serious challenges to North America, where dependence on the Middle Eastern oil and gas is growing. This paper attempts to present different scenarios and strategies to tackle the problem of Latin America's future net energy supply. [Spanish] El enfoque principal de este articulo es sobre la base de la situacion actual de la produccion y consumo de energia en la region como un todo, para examinar las determinantes del suministro de energia y el crecimiento de la demanda y la prediccion del crecimiento futuro de la produccion de energia, consumo y balances. Desde el crecimiento de la demanda del petroleo, en los paises latinoamericanos, ellos mismos empezaron a acelerar a principios de los 90s, la falta de inversion y desarrollo y la consecuencia del encogimiento de la base de las exportaciones de energia de Latinoamerica podrian imponer serios retos a Norte America, en donde la dependencia del petroleo y del gas del Medio-Oeste esta creciendo. Este articulo intenta presentar diferentes escenarios y estrategias para atacar el problema del suministro neto de energia de Latinoamerica.

Demands on thermal power plants in the liberalised energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hein, D.; Kwanka, K.; Fischer, T.

2005-01-01

In the liberalised energy market, a diversified set (''mix'') of power plants will be needed. By investigating present and anticipated future criteria in detail, available technologies and outlines of further development are identified and discussed. Among them, concepts for efficiency-optimised base load plants as well as units with an improved cycling operation capability are both attributed to a specific valued benefit. Following the demand for a significant reduction of the overall greenhouse gas emissions, centralised power plants fed by fossil fuels and modified for retention of CO 2 are needed to guarantee a supply of energy at moderate costs in the 21st century. (author)

A scenarios study on future demands on container and truck sizes of the future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Kraaijenhagen; Jan Jansen; H. Graser; Stef Weijers; I. Szylar

2012-01-01

To what extent will future demands of worldwide operating parties, regarding the (tertiary) packaging of their freight flows, determine or influence the future dimensions of freight trucks? That is the question we address to in this paper. In this study we have studied what container sizes may fit

Policy implications of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

The 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand is summarized. Three broad implications concerning the future of the natural gas industry are highlighted: the residual impact of the August 1990 Gulf War on crude oil prices and the factors influencing the long-term price path, the impact of the growing number of environmental constraints on future energy use, and the effect of recent developments in gas production on future gas supply and price

Short- and long-run elasticities in energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bentzen, J.; Engsted, T.

1993-01-01

Short- and long-run energy demand elasticities are estimated on Danish annual data for 1948-90. Energy consumption, the real price of energy and real GDP appear to be non-stationary variables. Cointegration and error-correction methods are therefore applied. All estimated parameters have the expected signs and magnitudes and no evidence is found of a structural break in energy demand caused by the increases in real energy prices since 1973/74. (author)

Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isaac, Morna; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

2009-01-01

In this article, we assess the potential development of energy use for future residential heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. In a reference scenario, global energy demand for heating is projected to increase until 2030 and then stabilize. In contrast, energy demand for air conditioning is projected to increase rapidly over the whole 2000-2100 period, mostly driven by income growth. The associated CO 2 emissions for both heating and cooling increase from 0.8 Gt C in 2000 to 2.2 Gt C in 2100, i.e. about 12% of total CO 2 emissions from energy use (the strongest increase occurs in Asia). The net effect of climate change on global energy use and emissions is relatively small as decreases in heating are compensated for by increases in cooling. However, impacts on heating and cooling individually are considerable in this scenario, with heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change, and air-conditioning energy demand increased by 72%. At the regional scale considerable impacts can be seen, particularly in South Asia, where energy demand for residential air conditioning could increase by around 50% due to climate change, compared with the situation without climate change

Canada's energy future : reference case and scenarios to 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Energy is essential to the comfort and economic prosperity of Canadians. This report highlighted some of the issues that Canada faces with respect to its energy future. The report focused on emerging trends in energy supply and demand, and examined various energy futures that may be available to Canadians up to the year 2030. Three different scenarios were presented: (1) a continuing trends scenario; (2) a triple E scenario in which economic, environmental and energy objectives are balanced; and (3) a fortified islands scenario in which security concerns were coupled with international unrest and protectionist governments. The report determined that energy demand will remain a function of population and economic growth. Automobiles will continue to rely on fossil fuels. Energy efficiency will improve in relation to the effectiveness of government policies, and a move towards natural gas alternatives will occur. However, fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy supply. Oil sands production grew in all 3 of the evaluated scenarios. It is expected that total natural gas production will decline and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will increase. In all 3 scenarios greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased or only slightly declined. A full spectrum of GHG mitigation strategies will need to be implemented so that Canada can meet its target of a 20 per cent reduction in GHGs by 2020. It was concluded that effective policies are needed to optimize Canada's multiple objectives of economic growth, environment sustainability, and development of energy resources. 6 tabs., 118 figs

Energy demand seen as an open perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scholz, L.

1990-01-01

In the course assessments of the potentials of conserving energy it has become clear that the major problems in such attempts do not come from the field of science or technology, but rather from the economy and the society. The chapter on prognostic assessment of energy demand therefore discusses the procedures in the Federal Republic of Germany and prognoses of energy demand and supply in their context, which is made up of ecological, economic, political and sociological factors. (DG) [de

The role of fuel cells and electrolysers in future efficient energy systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hendriksen, Peter Vang; Vad Mathiesen, Brian; Pedersen, Allan Schrøder

2012-01-01

Fuel cells can increase the efficiency of the energy system and electrolysers can help enable a de-carbonisation of the energy supply. In this chapter we explain the role of fuel cells in future energy systems together with the role of electrolysers in smart energy systems with increasing penetra...... penetrations of intermittent renewable resources in the electricity grid increases the demand for smart energy systems.......Fuel cells can increase the efficiency of the energy system and electrolysers can help enable a de-carbonisation of the energy supply. In this chapter we explain the role of fuel cells in future energy systems together with the role of electrolysers in smart energy systems with increasing...

Long-term outlook of energy demand and supply in Japan. Estimation of energy demand and supply for 'Nuclear Energy Vision 2100' of JAEA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tatematsu, Kenji; Kawasaki, Hirotsugu; Nemoto, Masahiro; Murakami, Masakazu

2009-06-01

In this study, we showed an energy demand and supply scenario toward the year 2100 in Japan, which underlies JAEA's 'Nuclear Energy Vision 2100' published in October 2008. This energy demand and supply scenario aimed at the coexistence of the reduction of the carbon dioxide emission and the energy security through reduction of the fossil fuel usage, positive electrification and the nuclear energy usage. We reduced the ratio of the fossil fuel in the primary energy supply to about 1/3 and extend the share of renewable and nuclear energy to 70% from current 15%. As a result, the carbon dioxide emission was reduced to current 10%, and it developed that the half was the contribution of the nuclear energy. (author)

Coal: Energy for the future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-05-01

This report was prepared in response to a request by the US Department of energy (DOE). The principal objectives of the study were to assess the current DOE coal program vis-a-vis the provisions of the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT), and to recommend the emphasis and priorities that DOE should consider in updating its strategic plan for coal. A strategic plan for research, development, demonstration, and commercialization (RDD and C) activities for coal should be based on assumptions regarding the future supply and price of competing energy sources, the demand for products manufactured from these sources, technological opportunities, and the need to control the environmental impact of waste streams. These factors change with time. Accordingly, the committee generated strategic planning scenarios for three time periods: near-term, 1995--2005; mid-term, 2006--2020; and, long-term, 2021--2040. The report is divided into the following chapters: executive summary; introduction and scope of the study; overview of US DOE programs and planning; trends and issues for future coal use; the strategic planning framework; coal preparation, coal liquid mixtures, and coal bed methane recovery; clean fuels and specialty products from coal; electric power generation; technology demonstration and commercialization; advanced research programs; conclusions and recommendations; appendices; and glossary. 174 refs.

Model documentation report: Industrial sector demand module of the National Energy Modeling System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Industrial Demand Model. The report catalogues and describes model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the NEMS Industrial Model for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects. The NEMS Industrial Demand Model is a dynamic accounting model, bringing together the disparate industries and uses of energy in those industries, and putting them together in an understandable and cohesive framework. The Industrial Model generates mid-term (up to the year 2015) forecasts of industrial sector energy demand as a component of the NEMS integrated forecasting system. From the NEMS system, the Industrial Model receives fuel prices, employment data, and the value of industrial output. Based on the values of these variables, the Industrial Model passes back to the NEMS system estimates of consumption by fuel types

Building energy demand aggregation and simulation tools

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gianniou, Panagiota; Heller, Alfred; Rode, Carsten

2015-01-01

to neighbourhoods and cities. Buildings occupy a key place in the development of smart cities as they represent an important potential to integrate smart energy solutions. Building energy consumption affects significantly the performance of the entire energy network. Therefore, a realistic estimation...... of the aggregated building energy use will not only ensure security of supply but also enhance the stabilization of national energy balances. In this study, the aggregation of building energy demand was investigated for a real case in Sønderborg, Denmark. Sixteen single-family houses -mainly built in the 1960s......- were examined, all connected to the regional district heating network. The aggregation of building energy demands was carried out according to typologies, being represented by archetype buildings. These houses were modelled with dynamic energy simulation software and with a simplified simulation tool...

Global perspectives on future nuclear energy utilisation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watts, G.L.

1998-01-01

This paper is presented as an overview of the nuclear sector from a global perspective. The aim is to show that nuclear power does have a future but that this will only be fully realised when the industry is able to demonstrate that it is part of the solution to the world's energy and environmental difficulties rather than part of the problem. The paper looks at the projected world energy demand as the population increases and countries develop, showing that nuclear power is required to meet this demand. In presenting nuclear power as a solution, the paper addresses the challenges facing us such as public confidence, environmental opposition, political issues and finance. It addresses the debate over reprocessing and direct disposal of irradiated nuclear fuel and looks at the competition from other fuels. The paper suggests how the industry might approach these issues such that nuclear power is indeed regarded globally as a solution to some of the worlds most pressing problems. (author)

Automation of energy demand forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Siddique, Sanzad

Automation of energy demand forecasting saves time and effort by searching automatically for an appropriate model in a candidate model space without manual intervention. This thesis introduces a search-based approach that improves the performance of the model searching process for econometrics models. Further improvements in the accuracy of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models. This thesis introduces machine learning techniques that are capable of modeling such nonlinearity. Algorithms for learning domain knowledge from time series data using the machine learning methods are also presented. The novel search based approach and the machine learning models are tested with synthetic data as well as with natural gas and electricity demand signals. Experimental results show that the model searching technique is capable of finding an appropriate forecasting model. Further experimental results demonstrate an improved forecasting accuracy achieved by using the novel machine learning techniques introduced in this thesis. This thesis presents an analysis of how the machine learning techniques learn domain knowledge. The learned domain knowledge is used to improve the forecast accuracy.

Why Synthetic Fuels Are Necessary in Future Energy Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. A. Grant Wilson

2017-07-01

Full Text Available We propose a hypothesis that fuels will continue to be critical elements of future energy systems. The reasons behind this are explored, such as the immense benefits conferred by fuels from their low cost of storage, transport, and handling, and especially in the management of the seasonal swing in heating demand for a country with a summer and winter season such as the UK. Empirical time-series data from Great Britain are used to examine the seasonal nature of the demand for liquid fuels, natural gas, and electricity, with the aid of a daily Shared Axis Energy Diagram. The logic of the continued need of fuels is examined, and the advantages and disadvantages of synthetic fuels are considered in comparison to fossil fuels.

Why Synthetic Fuels Are Necessary in Future Energy Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilson, I. A. Grant, E-mail: grant.wilson@sheffield.ac.uk [UK Centre for Carbon Dioxide Utilisation, Chemical & Biological Engineering, Sir Robert Hadfield Building, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield (United Kingdom); UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC), London (United Kingdom); Styring, Peter [UK Centre for Carbon Dioxide Utilisation, Chemical & Biological Engineering, Sir Robert Hadfield Building, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield (United Kingdom)

2017-07-24

We propose a hypothesis that fuels will continue to be critical elements of future energy systems. The reasons behind this are explored, such as the immense benefits conferred by fuels from their low cost of storage, transport, and handling, and especially in the management of the seasonal swing in heating demand for a country with a summer and winter season such as the UK. Empirical time-series data from Great Britain are used to examine the seasonal nature of the demand for liquid fuels, natural gas, and electricity, with the aid of a daily Shared Axis Energy Diagram. The logic of the continued need of fuels is examined, and the advantages and disadvantages of synthetic fuels are considered in comparison to fossil fuels.

Milton Hydro's Energy Drill Program : demand response based on behavioural responses to price signals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorne, D.; Heeney, D.

2006-01-01

The Energy Drill Program is a demand response tool and economic instrument based on a fire drill protocol. The aim of the program is to reduce peak demand and emissions and improve system reliability and price volatility. This presentation provided details of an Energy Drill pilot program, conducted in Milton, Ontario. Customized approaches were used in the buildings partaking in the drill, which included the Milton Hydro Headquarters, the Robert Baldwin Public School, and a leisure centre. Building assessments inventoried building systems and equipment usage patterns. Pilot monitoring and evaluation was conducted through the use of checklists completed by marshals and building coordinators. Energy use data was tracked by Milton Hydro, and report cards were sent after each drill. A short-term drop in demand was observed in all the buildings, as well as overall reductions in peak period demand. Energy consumption data for all the buildings were provided. Results of the pilot program suggested that rotating the drills among participating buildings may prove to be a more effective strategy for the program to adopt in future. A greater emphasis on energy efficiency was also recommended. It was concluded that the eventual roll-out strategy should carefully consider the number and types of buildings involved in the program; internal commitment to the program; available resources; and timing for implementation. refs., tabs., figs

Reduction of peak energy demand based on smart appliances energy consumption adjustment

Science.gov (United States)

Powroźnik, P.; Szulim, R.

2017-08-01

In the paper the concept of elastic model of energy management for smart grid and micro smart grid is presented. For the proposed model a method for reducing peak demand in micro smart grid has been defined. The idea of peak demand reduction in elastic model of energy management is to introduce a balance between demand and supply of current power for the given Micro Smart Grid in the given moment. The results of the simulations studies were presented. They were carried out on real household data available on UCI Machine Learning Repository. The results may have practical application in the smart grid networks, where there is a need for smart appliances energy consumption adjustment. The article presents a proposal to implement the elastic model of energy management as the cloud computing solution. This approach of peak demand reduction might have application particularly in a large smart grid.

Addressing Energy Demand through Demand Response. International Experiences and Practices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shen, Bo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ghatikar, Girish [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ni, Chun Chun [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dudley, Junqiao [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Martin, Phil [Enernoc, Inc., Boston, MA (United States); Wikler, Greg

2012-06-01

Demand response (DR) is a load management tool which provides a cost-effective alternative to traditional supply-side solutions to address the growing demand during times of peak electrical load. According to the US Department of Energy (DOE), demand response reflects “changes in electric usage by end-use customers from their normal consumption patterns in response to changes in the price of electricity over time, or to incentive payments designed to induce lower electricity use at times of high wholesale market prices or when system reliability is jeopardized.” 1 The California Energy Commission (CEC) defines DR as “a reduction in customers’ electricity consumption over a given time interval relative to what would otherwise occur in response to a price signal, other financial incentives, or a reliability signal.” 2 This latter definition is perhaps most reflective of how DR is understood and implemented today in countries such as the US, Canada, and Australia where DR is primarily a dispatchable resource responding to signals from utilities, grid operators, and/or load aggregators (or DR providers).

Future energy options for developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zaric, Z P

1982-05-01

An educated guess is made of the energy demand in developing countries well into the next century in order to estimate the possible role of new and renewable sources in meeting this demand. The world is roughly divided into industrialized (IND) and developing (LDC) countries. A plot of energy demand in both parts shows a possible structure of mixed energy to meet LDC demand, but there is a gap between demand and supply from conventional sources in LDCs that has to be met by new and renewable sources. When the demand for specific energy forms is projected, as much as two thirds of the final energy needed from new sources should be based on centralized-electricity and liquid-fuels technologies. Solar and geothermal energy must compete with nuclear and thermonuclear breeders, while solar prospects for chemical fuel supply in LDCs lacking adequate coal reserves seems promising. There is a large gap in research and development (R and D) spending on new energy between the two parts, which means that LDCs will have inappropriate technology at a high price. An increase in R and D spending on a regional basis should target funds to appropriate options. 6 references, 7 figures.

Alberta's clean energy future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

This paper deals with the future of clean energy in Alberta. With the present economic growth of the oil sands industry in Alberta, it is expected that there will be very considerable increases in job opportunities and GDP in both Canada and US. The challenges include high-energy demand and reduction of the carbon footprint. Alberta has adopted certain approaches to developing renewable and alternate forms of energy as well as to increasing the efficiency of present energy use and raising environmental consciousness in energy production. Three areas where the effects of clean energy will be felt are energy systems, climate change, and regional impacts, for instance on land, water, and wildlife. Alberta's regulatory process is shown by means of a flow chart. Aspects of oil sands environmental management include greenhouse gas targets, air quality assurance, and water quality monitoring, among others. Steps taken by Alberta to monitor and improve air quality and water management are listed. In conclusion, the paper notes that significant amounts of money are being pumped into research and development for greenhouse gas and water management projects.

Report on the planning of Senegal's energy demand by MAED

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanouté, Mamadou

2012-01-01

This study was carried out to strengthen the capacities of the participants in the implementation of a global energy balance of a country using the MAED model. The training which saw the participation of two teams (Senegal and Mali) took place from 30 July to 17 August 2012. The aim of this study is to: 1. Develop future scenarios on the volution of energy consumption. 2. Propose concrete measures to enable the country to face Soaring prices of petroleum products. 3. Streamlining and distributing energy consumption in a safe and sustainable manner. 4. Better planning for energy demand. Also, this study showed that the household sector occupies the leading position in terms of energy consumption. The Agriculture sector does not consume much energy because of the lack of modernization that prevails in the agricultural process with the use of rudimentary tools when tractors are used in developed countries. However, given the objectives of the State of Senegal to revive the economy of Senegal, there are significant changes in all sectors. The share of agriculture in GDP tends to decline in the future as the share of services increases slightly. In the household sector, it should be stressed that the use of modern biomass tends to increase in the coming decades to the detriment of traditional fuels which follow a stagnant trend.

Technology versus demand regulation - strategic modelling of transport, land use and energy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfaffenbichler, Paul C.; Shepherd, Simon

2007-01-01

Scarcity of oil supply is seen as one of the biggest future threats to our society. The recently finished EU-funded research project STEPs (Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects) had the objective to develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and the energy supply of the future taking into account the effects on the environment as well as economic and social viability. Two energy supply scenarios, one with and one without scarcity of oil supply, form the basis of STEPs. Furthermore two different policies are suggested to tackle the problem of scarcity of oil: a technology driven strategy and a demand regulation based strategy. This paper presents the application of these scenarios and strategies to the strategic Systems Dynamics model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) covering the metropolitan area of Edinburgh. Scenario indicators like car ownership, fleet composition and fuel resource costs were provided by the European model ASTRA and the world energy market model POLES. The first part of the paper summarises the scenarios and strategies in detail. The second part describes briefly some basics of Systems Dynamics as well as the main mechanisms underlying the model MARS. Finally the results of the scenario simulations are presented. The main outcome is that a demand regulation policy is more effective in reducing the consumption of non-renewable energy resources than a technology driven policy

Demand for electrical energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergougnoux, J.; Fouquet, D.

1983-01-01

The different utilizations of electric energy are reviewed in the residential and tertiary sectors, in the industry. The competitive position of electricity in regard to other fuels has been strengthned by the sudden rise in the price of oil in 1973-1974 and 1979-1980. The evolution of electricity prices depended on the steps taken to adjust the electricity generation system. The substitution of electricity applications for hydro-carbons is an essential point of energy policy. The adjustment at all times, at least cost and most reliability, of the supply of electricity to the demand for it is a major problem in the design and operation of electric systems. National demand for power at a given moment is extremely diversified. Electricity consumption presents daily and seasonal variations, and variations according to the different sectors. Forecasting power requirements is for any decision on operation or investment relating to an electrical system. Load management is desirable (prices according to the customers, optional tariffs for ''peak-day withdrawal''). To conclude, prospects for increased electricity consumption are discussed [fr

Stochastic optimization of energy hub operation with consideration of thermal energy market and demand response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vahid-Pakdel, M.J.; Nojavan, Sayyad; Mohammadi-ivatloo, B.; Zare, Kazem

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Studying heating market impact on energy hub operation considering price uncertainty. • Investigating impact of implementation of heat demand response on hub operation. • Presenting stochastic method to consider wind generation and prices uncertainties. - Abstract: Multi carrier energy systems or energy hubs has provided more flexibility for energy management systems. On the other hand, due to mutual impact of different energy carriers in energy hubs, energy management studies become more challengeable. The initial patterns of energy demands from grids point of view can be modified by optimal scheduling of energy hubs. In this work, optimal operation of multi carrier energy system has been studied in the presence of wind farm, electrical and thermal storage systems, electrical and thermal demand response programs, electricity market and thermal energy market. Stochastic programming is implemented for modeling the system uncertainties such as demands, market prices and wind speed. It is shown that adding new source of heat energy for providing demand of consumers with market mechanism changes the optimal operation point of multi carrier energy system. Presented mixed integer linear formulation for the problem has been solved by executing CPLEX solver of GAMS optimization software. Simulation results shows that hub’s operation cost reduces up to 4.8% by enabling the option of using thermal energy market for meeting heat demand.

Analysis and discussion of the most recent forecasts on energy demand for major industrial nations with a view to the avoidance of greenhouse gases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jochem, E.; Herz, H.; Mannsbart, W.

1993-09-01

In the future, when individual governments in their negotiations within the framework convention on climate change refer to their national energy demand assessments, any resulting energy forecasts are likely to be criticized in the scientific public because to date most of these energy demand assessments vary greatly in their essential basic assumptions (e.g., the future economic development, the oil price, the development of transportation, and so forth). For this reason the last ''official'' energy demand estimates for each country have been evaluated by a network of competent energy economy institutes in the countries having the highest emissions of climate-relevant gases (USA, Japan, the former Soviet Union, the EC). The work of this network had the following aim: to compare these most recent demand estimates and analyse their differences, to match each other's understanding of the most important basic assumptions and forecasting methods, and to agree on a reference skeleton for demand estimates, by means of which the assessments of different countries could be compared with each other. (orig.) [de

Helium supply demand in future years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laverick, C.

1975-01-01

Adequate helium will be available to the year 2000 AD to meet anticipated helium demands for present day applications and the development of new superconducting technologies of potential importance to the nation. It is almost certain that there will not be enough helium at acceptable financial and energy cost after the turn of the century to meet the needs of the many promising helium based technologies now under development. Serious consideration should be given to establishing priorities in development and application based upon their relative value to the country. In the first half of the next century, three ways of estimating helium demand lead to cumulative ranges of from 75 to 125 Gcf (economic study), 89 to 470 Gcf (projected national energy growth rates) and 154 to 328 Gcf (needs for new technologies). These needs contrast with estimated helium resources in natural gas after 2000 AD which may be as low as 10 or 126 Gcf depending upon how the federal helium program is managed and the nation's natural gas resources are utilized. The technological and financial return on a modest national investment in further helium storage and a rational long term helium program promises to be considerable

Modelling energy demand in the Norwegian building stock

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sartori, Igor

2008-07-15

Energy demand in the building stock in Norway represents about 40% of the final energy consumption, of which 22% goes to the residential sector and 18% to the service sector. In Norway there is a strong dependency on electricity for heating purposes, with electricity covering about 80% of the energy demand in buildings. The building sector can play an important role in the achievement of a more sustainable energy system. The work performed in the articles presented in this thesis investigates various aspects related to the energy demand in the building sector, both in singular cases and in the stock as a whole. The work performed in the first part of this thesis on development and survey of case studies provided background knowledge that was then used in the second part, on modelling the entire stock. In the first part, a literature survey of case studies showed that, in a life cycle perspective, the energy used in the operating phase of buildings is the single most important factor. Design of low-energy buildings is then beneficial and should be pursued, even though it implies a somewhat higher embodied energy. A case study was performed on a school building. First, a methodology using a Monte Carlo method in the calibration process was explored. Then, the calibrated model of the school was used to investigate measures for the achievement of high energy efficiency standard through renovation work. In the second part, a model was developed to study the energy demand in a scenario analysis. The results showed the robustness of policies that included conservation measures against the conflicting effects of the other policies. Adopting conservation measures on a large scale showed the potential to reduce both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlighted the inertia to change of the building stock, due to low activity levels compared to the stock size. It also became clear that a deeper

Distributed technologies in California's energy future: A preliminary report. Volume 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Christensen, M.; Craig, P.; McGuire, C.B.; Simmons, M. (eds.)

1977-09-01

The chapters in Volume 2 of Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future are: Environmental Impacts of Alternative Energy Technologies for California; Land Use Configurations and the Utilization of Distributive Energy Technology; Land Use Implications of a Dispersed Energy Path; Belief, Behavior, and Technologies as Driving Forces in Transitional Stages--The People Problem in Dispersed Energy Futures; Development of an Energy Attitude Survey; Interventions to Influence Firms Toward the Adoption of ''Soft'' Energy Technology; The Entry of Small Firms into Distributed Technology Energy Industries; Short-Term Matching of Supply and Demand in Electrical Systems with Renewable Sources; Vulnerability of Renewable Energy Systems; and District Heating for California.

Energy and electricity demand forecasting for nuclear power planning in developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-07-01

This Guidebook is designed to be a reference document to forecast energy and electricity demand. It presents concepts and methodologies that have been developed to make an analytical approach to energy/electricity demand forecasting as part of the planning process. The Guidebook is divided into 6 main chapters: (Energy demand and development, energy demand analysis, electric load curve analysis, energy and electricity demand forecasting, energy and electricity demand forecasting tools used in various organizations, IAEA methodologies for energy and electricity demand forecasting) and 3 appendices (experience with case studies carried out by the IAEA, reference technical data, reference economic data). A bibliography and a glossary complete the Guidebook. Refs, figs and tabs

Balancing Fiscal, Energy, and Environmental Concerns: Analyzing the Policy Options for California’s Energy and Economic Future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edward Manderson

2013-03-01

Full Text Available This study estimates the fiscal, energy, and environmental tradeoffs involved in supplying California’s future energy needs. An integrated framework is developed whereby an econometric forecasting system of California energy demand is coupled with engineering-economic models of energy supply, and economic impacts are estimated using input-output models of the California economy. A baseline scenario in which California relies on imported electricity to meet future demand is then compared against various energy supply development scenarios over the forecast horizon (2012–2035. The results indicate that if California implements its renewable portfolio standard (RPS, there will be a substantial net cost in terms of value added, employment, and state tax revenues because the economic benefits of building capacity are outweighed by higher energy prices. Although carbon emissions fall, the cost per ton of avoided emissions is well above market prices. Building out natural gas fired generation capacity also leads to losses compared to the baseline, although the impacts are relatively minor. Meanwhile, a strategy of replacing imported crude oil and natural gas with domestic production using indigenous resources increases gross state product, employment, and tax revenues, with minimal impact on carbon emissions. This option could, therefore, help mitigate the costs of California meeting its RPS commitment.

The SEEC United Kingdom energy demand forecast (1993-2000)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fouquet, R; Hawdon, D; Pearson, P; Robinson, C; Stevens, P

1993-12-16

The aims of this paper are to present the underlying determinants of fuel consumption, such as economic activity and prices, develop a series of simple yet reliable sectoral models of energy demand, which incorporate recent modelling developments; provide forecasts of energy demand and its environmental consequences; examine the effects of VAT on domestic fuel and increased competition in the electricity sector; and aid the present debate on energy markets. The paper analyses world oil prices, with a particular focus on Iraq's role, reviews energy policy in the UK and discusses SEEC's expectations about UK fuel prices in coming years and how they vary among sectors. It forecasts final user demand in the domestic, iron and steel, other industry, transport, agricultural, public administration and defence and miscellaneous sectors. The paper also examines the major changes that are underway in electricity generators' demand for fuel, and primary energy consumption and its environmental implications.

Continental integration and energy demand in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manning, D.J.

2004-01-01

This presentation highlighted some of the major issues regarding energy demand in the United States and continental integration. The energy markets in Canada and the United States are economically integrated with large cross-border investment. Therefore, the energy infrastructure can be significantly affected by inconsistencies between the two countries in policy, regulatory processes and fiscal regimes. The author discussed the inelasticity in the natural gas demand in the United States in the near-term, and how natural gas consumption, particularly for power generation, is greater than North America's supply capacity. New supplies such as liquefied natural gas and arctic gas are needed to meet growing demands. The role of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency was also discussed. It was emphasized that imbalances in supply and demand inevitably lead to price volatility and that high prices are a major obstacle to economic growth. tabs., figs

Dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lescaroux, Francois

2011-01-01

This paper proposes a regional and sectoral model of global final energy demand. For the main end-use sectors of consumption (industrial, commercial and public services, residential and road transportation), per-capita demand is expressed as an S-shaped function of per-capita income. Other variables intervene as well, like energy prices, temperatures and technological trends. This model is applied on a panel of 101 countries and 3 aggregates (covering the whole world) and it explains fairly well past variations in sectoral, final consumption since the beginning of the 2000s. Further, the model is used to analyze the dynamics of final energy demand, by sector and in total. The main conclusion concerns the pattern of change for aggregate energy intensity. The simulations performed show that there is no a priori reason for it to exhibit a bell-shape, as reported in the literature. Depending on initial conditions, the weight of basic needs in total consumption and the availability of modern commercial energy resources, various forms might emerge. - Research Highlights: → The residential sector accounts for most of final energy consumption at low income levels. → Its share drops at the benefit of the industrial, services and road transportation sectors in turn. → Sectoral shares' pattern is affected by changes in geographic, sociologic and economic factors. → Final energy intensity may show various shapes and does not exhibit necessarily a bell-shape.

Future demands highly integrated solutions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mangler, Andreas [Rutronik Elektronische Bauelemente GmbH, Ispringen (Germany). Strategic Marketing

2010-07-01

The future energy supply with a high number of decentral power plants depends on the use of innovative system technology. It is a precondition for a well-functioning grid and power management over all voltage levels. (orig.)

The effect of expected energy prices on energy demand: implications for energy conservation and carbon taxes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, R.K.

1994-01-01

This paper describes an empirical method for estimating the effect of expected prices on energy demand. Data for expected oil prices are compiled from forecasts for real oil prices. The effect of expectations on energy demand is simulated with an expectation variable that proxies the return on investment for energy efficient capital. Econometric results indicate that expected prices have a significant effect on energy demand in the US between 1975 and 1989. A model built from the econometric results indicates that the way in which consumers anticipate changes in energy prices that are generated by a carbon tax affects the quantity of emissions abated by the tax. 14 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

Sustaining the future: the role of nuclear power in meeting future world energy needs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffey, R.; Sun, Y.

2003-01-01

A description is given of recently informed analyses showing the potential that nuclear power has in meeting global energy demands. For both the electricity and transportation sectors, we can quantify the beneficial effects on the environment, and we show how nuclear power deserves credit for its role in assisting future world energy, environmental and economic sustainability. The continuing expansion of the world's and Asia's energy needs, coupled with the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) and other emissions, will require new approaches for large scale energy production and use. This is particularly important for China and Asia with respect to meeting both the energy demand and sustainability challenges. We show and explore the role of nuclear power for large-scale energy applications, including electricity production and hydrogen for transportation. Advanced nuclear technologies, such as those like CANDU's next generation ACR, can meet future global energy market needs, avoid emissions, and mitigate the potential for global climate change. We use the latest IPCC Scenarios out to the year 2100 as a base case, but correct them to examine the sensitivity to large scale nuclear and hydrogen fuel penetration. We show a significant impact of nuclear energy on energy market penetration, and in reducing GHGs and other emissions in the coming century, particularly in the industrial developing world and in Asia. This is achieved without needing emissions credits, as are used or needed as economic support for other sources, or for subsidies via emissions trading schemes. Nuclear power offers the relatively emissions-free means, both to provide electricity for traditional applications and, by electrolytic production of hydrogen, to extend its use deep into the transportation sector. For the published IPCC Marker Scenarios for Asia we show the reduction in GHG emissions when electrolysis using electricity from nuclear power assists the introduction of hydrogen as a fuel

Role of nuclear fusion in future energy systems and the environment under future uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tokimatsu, Koji; Fujino, Jun'ichi; Konishi, Satoshi; Ogawa, Yuichi; Yamaji, Kenji

2003-01-01

Debates about whether or not to invest heavily in nuclear fusion as a future innovative energy option have been made within the context of energy technology development strategies. This is because the prospects for nuclear fusion are quite uncertain and the investments therefore carry the risk of quite large regrets, even though investment is needed in order to develop the technology. The timeframe by which nuclear fusion could become competitive in the energy market has not been adequately studied, nor has roles of the nuclear fusion in energy systems and the environment. The present study has two objectives. One is to reveal the conditions under which nuclear fusion could be introduced economically (hereafter, we refer to such introductory conditions as breakeven prices) in future energy systems. The other objective is to evaluate the future roles of nuclear fusion in energy systems and in the environment. Here we identify three roles that nuclear fusion will take on when breakeven prices are achieved: (i) a portion of the electricity market in 2100, (ii) reduction of annual global total energy systems cost, and (iii) mitigation of carbon tax (shadow price of carbon) under CO 2 constraints. Future uncertainties are key issues in evaluating nuclear fusion. Here we treated the following uncertainties: energy demand scenarios, introduction timeframe for nuclear fusion, capacity projections of nuclear fusion, CO 2 target in 2100, capacity utilization ratio of options in energy/environment technologies, and utility discount rates. From our investigations, we conclude that the presently designed nuclear fusion reactors may be ready for economical introduction into energy systems beginning around 2050-2060, and we can confirm that the favorable introduction of the reactors would reduce both the annual energy systems cost and the carbon tax (the shadow price of carbon) under a CO 2 concentration constraint

The relationship between agricultural technology and energy demand in Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaman, Khalid; Khan, Muhammad Mushtaq; Ahmad, Mehboob; Rustam, Rabiah

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was two fold: (i) to investigate the casual relationship between energy consumption and agricultural technology factors, and (ii) electricity consumption and technological factors in the agricultural sector of Pakistan. The study further evaluates four alternative but equally plausible hypotheses, each with different policy implications. These are: (i) Agricultural technology factors cause energy demand (the conventional view), (ii) energy demand causes technological factors, (iii) There is a bi-directional causality between the two variables and (iv) Both variables are causality independent. By applying techniques of Cointegration and Granger causality tests on energy demand (i.e., total primary energy consumption and electricity consumption) and agricultural technology factors (such as, tractors, fertilizers, cereals production, agriculture irrigated land, high technology exports, livestock; agriculture value added; industry value added and subsides) over a period of 1975–2010. The results infer that tractor and energy demand has bi-directional relationship; while irrigated agricultural land; share of agriculture and industry value added and subsides have supported the conventional view i.e., agricultural technology cause energy consumption in Pakistan. On the other hand, neither fertilizer consumption and high technology exports nor energy demand affect each others. Government should form a policy of incentive-based supports which might be a good policy for increasing the use of energy level in agriculture. - Highlights: ► Find the direction between green technology factors and energy demand in Pakistan. ► The results indicate that there is a strong relationship between them. ► Agriculture machinery and energy demand has bi-directional relationship. ► Green technology causes energy consumption i.e., unidirectional relationship. ► Agriculture expansion is positive related to total primary energy consumption.

Enabling technologies for industrial energy demand management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dyer, Caroline H.; Hammond, Geoffrey P.; Jones, Craig I.; McKenna, Russell C.

2008-01-01

This state-of-science review sets out to provide an indicative assessment of enabling technologies for reducing UK industrial energy demand and carbon emissions to 2050. In the short term, i.e. the period that will rely on current or existing technologies, the road map and priorities are clear. A variety of available technologies will lead to energy demand reduction in industrial processes, boiler operation, compressed air usage, electric motor efficiency, heating and lighting, and ancillary uses such as transport. The prospects for the commercial exploitation of innovative technologies by the middle of the 21st century are more speculative. Emphasis is therefore placed on the range of technology assessment methods that are likely to provide policy makers with a guide to progress in the development of high-temperature processes, improved materials, process integration and intensification, and improved industrial process control and monitoring. Key among the appraisal methods applicable to the energy sector is thermodynamic analysis, making use of energy, exergy and 'exergoeconomic' techniques. Technical and economic barriers will limit the improvement potential to perhaps a 30% cut in industrial energy use, which would make a significant contribution to reducing energy demand and carbon emissions in UK industry. Non-technological drivers for, and barriers to, the take-up of innovative, low-carbon energy technologies for industry are also outlined

Evaluating the sustainability of an energy supply system using renewable energy sources: An energy demand assessment of South Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Cedric Fitzgerald

Sustainable energy is defined as a dynamic harmony between the equitable availability of energy-intensive goods and services to all people and the preservation of the earth for future generations. Sustainable energy development continues to be a major focus within the government and regulatory governing bodies in the electric utility industry. This is as a result of continued demand for electricity and the impact of greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generating plants on the environment by way of the greenhouse effect. A culmination of increasing concerns about climate change, the nuclear incident in Fukushima four years ago, and discussions on energy security in a world with growing energy demand have led to a movement for increasing the share of power generation from renewable energy sources. This work studies demand for electricity from primarily residential, commercial, agricultural, and industrial customers in South Carolina (SC) and its effect on the environment from coal-fired electricity generating plants. Moreover, this work studies sustainable renewable energy source-options based on the renewable resources available in the state of SC, as viable options to supplement generation from coal-fired electricity generating plants. In addition, greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants from primarily coal-fired plants will be defined and quantified. Fundamental renewable energy source options will be defined and quantified based on availability and sustainability of SC's natural resources. This work studies the environmental, economic, and technical aspects of each renewable energy source as a sustainable energy option to replace power generation from coal-fired plants. Additionally, social aspect implications will be incorporated into each of the three aspects listed above, as these aspects are explored during the research and analysis. Electricity demand data and alternative energy source-supply data in SC are carried out and are used to develop and

2025 California Demand Response Potential Study - Charting California’s Demand Response Future. Final Report on Phase 2 Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alstone, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Potter, Jennifer [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Piette, Mary Ann [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Schwartz, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Berger, Michael A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dunn, Laurel N. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Smith, Sarah J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Aghajanzadeh, Aruab [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Stensson, Sofia [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Szinai, Julie [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Walter, Travis [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McKenzie, Lucy [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Lavin, Luke [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Schneiderman, Brendan [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Mileva, Ana [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Cutter, Eric [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Olson, Arne [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Bode, Josh [Nexant, Inc., Nashville, TN (United States); Ciccone, Adriana [Nexant, Inc., Nashville, TN (United States); Jain, Ankit [Nexant, Inc., Nashville, TN (United States)

2017-03-01

California’s legislative and regulatory goals for renewable energy are changing the power grid’s dynamics. Increased variable generation resource penetration connected to the bulk power system, as well as, distributed energy resources (DERs) connected to the distribution system affect the grid’s reliable operation over many different time scales (e.g., days to hours to minutes to seconds). As the state continues this transition, it will require careful planning to ensure resources with the right characteristics are available to meet changing grid management needs. Demand response (DR) has the potential to provide important resources for keeping the electricity grid stable and efficient, to defer upgrades to generation, transmission and distribution systems, and to deliver customer economic benefits. This study estimates the potential size and cost of future DR resources for California’s three investor-owned utilities (IOUs): Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), Southern California Edison Company (SCE), and San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). Our goal is to provide data-driven insights as the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) evaluates how to enhance DR’s role in meeting California’s resource planning needs and operational requirements. We address two fundamental questions: 1. What cost-competitive DR service types will meet California’s future grid needs as it moves towards clean energy and advanced infrastructure? 2. What is the size and cost of the expected resource base for the DR service types?

Future of energy and nuclear energy in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaya, Yoichi

2004-01-01

Recently, the Government of Japan announced macroflame of GDP growth rate, crude oil cost, population, economic actions and demand of energy from the present to 2030. On the view point of decrease of population, economy is not affected by it and labor shortage will be supplied by advanced technologies. Accordingly, many economists expect increase of GNP and economy. However, energy demand will increase until 2020 and then decrease. Four new atomic power plants to be building will operate until 2010 and six plants will be constructed until 2030. Discharge of CO 2 will increase until 2020 and then decrease depends on energy demand. The outlook of nuclear energy contains two important assumptions, 85% of rate of operation and 60 year of operation time. The fuel cycle is very important in the world. (S.Y.)

Economic growth, regional disparities and energy demand in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheng, Yu; Shi, Xunpeng; Zhang, Dandan

2014-01-01

Using the panel data of 27 provinces between 1978 and 2008, we employed a instrumental regression technique to examine the relationship between economic growth, energy demand/production and the related policies in China. The empirical results show that forming a cross-province integrated energy market will in general reduce the response of equilibrium user costs of energy products to their local demand and production, through cross-regional energy transfer (including both energy trade and cross-regional reallocation). In particular, reducing transportation costs and improving marketization level are identified as two important policy instruments to enhance the role of energy market integration. The findings support the argument for a more competitive cross-province energy transfer policies and calls for more developed energy connectivity and associate institutional arrangements within China. These policy implications may also be extended to the East Asia Summit region where energy market integration is being actively promoted. - Highlights: • Development driving energy demand has different impacts on energy prices than others. • EMI will reduce the response of equilibrium energy prices to local demand and production. • Reducing transportation costs and improving marketization level enhance the role of EMI. • More market competition and better physical and institutional connectivity are better. • Policy implications to China may be extended to the East Asia Summit region

China's energy future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horsnell, Paul

1997-01-01

The influence of China's growing energy demand on world oil markets is considered. Starting from a very low base of energy consumption per capita, China's potential for growth in oil demand is likely still to be subject to the extremely strong impact of a stop-go economic policy in which the availability of oil is used as a macroeconomic control variable to counter inflation. This has led to considerable monthly variations in oil import levels. While this situation continues, the buying pressure from China will tend to alternate between a trickle and a flood with consequent destabilizing impacts on the market. The markets potentially involved are those of Asia, the Middle East, West Africa and the Mediterranean with knock-on effects in the North Sea and Rotterdam. China is likely to constitute a major indirect force in these markets as a volatile source of demand at the margin. (UK)

Future demands for an Industrialized Architecture?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beim, Anne

2011-01-01

When speaking about the future demands for industrialized architecture – or how to translate industrialized processes into tectonic sustainable design strategies in architecture – several questions come to mind. First of all, why is the building industry in comparison to the production industry...... these questions raise a wide-spread discussion, one could argue that the building industry can benefit from different ways of architectural synthesis thinking as a basis for improving. This understood in such a way that industrialized manufacturing technologies and products should be driven by ideas...

Energy Supply and Demand Planning Aspects in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomsic, M.; Urbancic, A.; Al Mansour, F.; Merse, S.

1997-01-01

Slovenia can be considered a sufficiently homogenous region, even though specific climatic conditions exist in some parts of the country. Urban regions with high energy consumptions density differ in logistic aspects and in the potential of renewable energy sources. The difference in household energy demand is not significant. The planning study is based on the ''Integrated Resource Planning'' approach. A novel energy planning tool, the MESAP-PlaNet energy system model, supplemented by auxiliary models of technology penetration, electricity demand analysis and optimal expansion planning (the WASP package) has been used. The following segments has been treated in detail: industry, households and both central and local supply systems. Three intensities of energy efficiency strategies are compared: Reference, Moderate and Intensive. The intensity of demand side management programs influence the level and dynamics of activation of conservation potentials. Energy tax is considered in the Moderate and Intensive strategies. On the supply side the issue of domestic coal use is discussed. Reduction in the use of coal is linked to energy efficiency strategies. It has been found that energy efficiency strategies consistently improve economic efficiency, security of supply and protection of health and environment. The only conflicting area is social acceptability, due to both the energy tax reform and the loss of mining jobs. (author)

On the future role of Gulf oil in meeting world energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagy Eltony, M.

1996-01-01

The validity of the view of a growing dependence of the world on oil from the Persian Gulf, and the resulting implications for the economies of the Gulf countries were examined. The prevailing view in the countries of the Persian Gulf is that the demand for oil will continue to rise, resulting in the inevitable increase in prices which will in turn alleviate the budget deficit problems currently encountered by most of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. The author argues that the implication of this view is that GCC countries are failing to address the fundamental structural problems within their economies, and raise questions that tend to undermine this hypothesis of continuing dependence on Gulf oil by the rest of the world. Some of these factors are growing reliance on electricity and natural gas, environmental concerns, development of alternative fuels, political instability in the Gulf states and the potential interruption in supply, all of which tend to accelerate the trend towards reduced demand for Gulf oil. The following have been recommended as ways of avoiding the ultimate risk of huge unwanted oil reserves: diversification of the economies of GCC countries; reduced spending and increased investment in developing further capacity from non-GCC sources through cooperation and joint ventures between developing countries and international companies; a more active role in worldwide decisions relating to environmental concerns; and finally, a systematic monitoring and evaluation of the likely impacts of new developments in all areas of alternative energy. 17 refs

A brief history and the possible future of urban energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rutter, Paul; Keirstead, James

2012-01-01

Modern cities depend on energy systems to deliver a range of services such as heating, cooling, lighting, mobility, communications, and so on. This article examines how these urban energy systems came to be, tracing the major transitions from the earliest settlements through to today's fossil-fuelled cities. The underlying theme is “increasing efficiency under constraints” with each transition marked by increasing energy efficiency in service provision, increasing per capita energy use, increasing complexity in the energy system's structure, with innovations driven by a strategic view of the overall system, and accompanied by wider changes in technology and society. In developed countries, the future of urban energy systems is likely to continue many of these trends, with increased efficiency being driven by the constraints of climate change and rising fuel prices. Both supply and demand side technologies are discussed as potential solutions to these issues, with different impacts on the urban environment and its citizens. However in developing countries, rising urban populations and access to basic energy services will drive the next transition. - Highlights: ► Urban energy system transitions in history are reviewed. ► Common features include increased per capita energy use, growing system complexity, and technological innovation. ► Future transitions will be shaped by the constraints of climate change, rising fuel prices, and urbanisation. ► Long-term sustainability depends on ability to innovate rapidly; opportunities exist on supply and demand sides.

Energy management strategy for fuel cell-supercapacitor hybrid vehicles based on prediction of energy demand

Science.gov (United States)

Carignano, Mauro G.; Costa-Castelló, Ramon; Roda, Vicente; Nigro, Norberto M.; Junco, Sergio; Feroldi, Diego

2017-08-01

Offering high efficiency and producing zero emissions Fuel Cells (FCs) represent an excellent alternative to internal combustion engines for powering vehicles to alleviate the growing pollution in urban environments. Due to inherent limitations of FCs which lead to slow transient response, FC-based vehicles incorporate an energy storage system to cover the fast power variations. This paper considers a FC/supercapacitor platform that configures a hard constrained powertrain providing an adverse scenario for the energy management strategy (EMS) in terms of fuel economy and drivability. Focusing on palliating this problem, this paper presents a novel EMS based on the estimation of short-term future energy demand and aiming at maintaining the state of energy of the supercapacitor between two limits, which are computed online. Such limits are designed to prevent active constraint situations of both FC and supercapacitor, avoiding the use of friction brakes and situations of non-power compliance in a short future horizon. Simulation and experimentation in a case study corresponding to a hybrid electric bus show improvements on hydrogen consumption and power compliance compared to the widely reported Equivalent Consumption Minimization Strategy. Also, the comparison with the optimal strategy via Dynamic Programming shows a room for improvement to the real-time strategies.

Demand-Side Flexibility for Energy Transitions: Ensuring the Competitive Development of Demand Response Options

OpenAIRE

Nursimulu, Anjali; Florin, Marie-Valentine; Vuille, François

2015-01-01

This report provides an overview of the current debates about demand response development, focusing primarily on Europe, with some comparisons to the United States. ‘Demand response’ includes strategies that involve end-use customers adapting or altering their electricity demand in response to grid conditions or market prices. It is viewed as a multi-purpose power-system resource that enhances the energy system’s capacity to cope with increasing demand, rising costs of conventional transmissi...

Smart Energy 2010. Innovative, ICT-oriented concepts for the energy sector of future; Smart Energy 2010. Innovative, IKT-orientierte Konzepte fuer den Energiesektor der Zukunft

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grossmann, Uwe; Kunold, Ingo (eds.)

2010-07-01

Architectures of energy information systems, smart metering, transfer and energy data, data security and safety, demand profiles, demand response, tariffs, segmentation of customers and customer feedback are examined within this volume. Thirteen papers contain the reports of practitioners and researchers from enterprises and research institutions on their work. The main focus of this book is on three topics ''smart metering'', ''IKT-architectures for energy distribution grids'' and ''energy markets and energy end customers''. New developments will be presented and critically examined. On the one hand this volume addresses researchers and practitioners from enterprises and research institutions, on the other hand teachers and students dealing with questions concerning the energy market of the future. (orig.)

Regional allocation of biomass to U.S. energy demands under a portfolio of policy scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Mullins, Kimberley A; Venkatesh, Aranya; Nagengast, Amy L; Kocoloski, Matt

2014-01-01

The potential for widespread use of domestically available energy resources, in conjunction with climate change concerns, suggest that biomass may be an essential component of U.S. energy systems in the near future. Cellulosic biomass in particular is anticipated to be used in increasing quantities because of policy efforts, such as federal renewable fuel standards and state renewable portfolio standards. Unfortunately, these independently designed biomass policies do not account for the fact that cellulosic biomass can equally be used for different, competing energy demands. An integrated assessment of multiple feedstocks, energy demands, and system costs is critical for making optimal decisions about a unified biomass energy strategy. This study develops a spatially explicit, best-use framework to optimally allocate cellulosic biomass feedstocks to energy demands in transportation, electricity, and residential heating sectors, while minimizing total system costs and tracking greenhouse gas emissions. Comparing biomass usage across three climate policy scenarios suggests that biomass used for space heating is a low cost emissions reduction option, while biomass for liquid fuel or for electricity becomes attractive only as emissions reduction targets or carbon prices increase. Regardless of the policy approach, study results make a strong case for national and regional coordination in policy design and compliance pathways.

World coal prices and future energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bennett, J.

1992-01-01

The Clean Air Act Amendments will create some important changes in the US domestic steam coal market, including price increases for compliance coal by the year 2000 and price decreases for high-sulfur coal. In the international market, there is likely to be a continuing oversupply which will put a damper on price increases. The paper examines several forecasts for domestic and international coal prices and notes a range of predictions for future oil prices

Understanding the design of energy interventions to reduce end-user demand in organisational and domestic environments

OpenAIRE

Foster, Derek

2017-01-01

Energy demand is on the rise globally due to unchecked factors such as population growth, lifestyle choices, and the industrialization of developing countries. Governments are investing in technologies for efficient and renewable energy in an attempt to secure energy for the future over current dependencies on fossil fuels, but the development costs are high, and the rate of developed technologies is projected to fall far short of meeting global requirements. Overshadowing this growing app...

Outlook for world nuclear power generation and long-term energy supply and demand situations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuo, Yuhji

2012-01-01

In this article, the author presents a long-term outlook for the world's nuclear generating capacity, taking into account the nuclear policy changes after Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. World primary energy demand will grow from 11.2 billion tons of oil equivalent (toe) in 2009 to 17.3 billion toe in 2035. Along with this rapid increase in global energy consumption, the world's nuclear generating capacity will grow from 392 GW in 2010 to 484 GW in 2020 and 574 GW in 2035 in the 'Reference scenario'. Even in the 'Low nuclear scenario', where the maximum impact of Fukushima accident to the nuclear policies of each government is assumed, it will continue to grow in the future, exceeding 500 GW in 2035. In particular, Asian countries such as China and India will lead the growth both in the energy demand and in the nuclear power capacity. Therefore, it is essential to better ensure the safety of nuclear power generation. It is important for technologically developed countries, including Japan, to make active contributions to the establishment of a global nuclear safety control system. On the other hand, energy security and global warming will continue to be major issues, which will make it indispensable to make the best effort to save energy and expand renewable energy utilization. Japan is competitive in energy-saving and environmental conservation technologies, thus further development and utilization of there technologies should be a key option of Japan's growth growth strategy in the future. (author)

Fueling our future : strategic energy policy opportunities for Canada : outcomes report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lepine, G.; Poisson, Y.

2005-01-01

Canada's economic future is closely linked to its energy future. This report relates outcomes from a conference aimed at understanding the issues and challenges facing the energy sector. The goal of the conference was to promote a dialogue on a national approach to meeting Canada's energy needs. Participants at the conference agreed that ensuring a sustainable energy supply was an overarching challenge. Both unconventional and traditional sources of energy will be needed for supply and export in the future. The development of new sources of both conventional and unconventional energy was a priority. Investments in technological advancement held the key to future development. A consensus emerged that increased energy efficiency is necessary along with strong, articulate energy policies. Market-based decision-making should work in combination with the public sector. The complex regulatory approval process is seen as a serious challenge to Canada's energy future and collaboration is crucial to the success of Canada's energy strategy, with provincial, territorial and federal commitment. Environmental considerations are a significant component, with increased attention paid to issues of climate change in the face of increased demand. Discrepancies in policy and the legally binding Kyoto Protocol were discussed with reference to regulations, policy and tax incentives. A zero-emission future was suggested. Frameworks and policy guidelines are seen as necessary for future advancement, as well as high-level political commitment. It was concluded that more discussion between industry, environmental Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), senior policy makers and advisors is necessary to address energy issues and begin moving forward. Conference agendas, participant lists, biographies and presentation notes were also included

Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tian Wu

2014-11-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a model for the projection of Chinese vehicle stocks and road vehicle energy demand through 2050 based on low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios. To derive a gross-domestic product (GDP-dependent Gompertz function, Chinese GDP is estimated using a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE model. The Gompertz function is estimated using historical data on vehicle development trends in North America, Pacific Rim and Europe to overcome the problem of insufficient long-running data on Chinese vehicle ownership. Results indicate that the number of projected vehicle stocks for 2050 is 300, 455 and 463 million for low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios respectively. Furthermore, the growth in China’s vehicle stock will increase beyond the inflection point of Gompertz curve by 2020, but will not reach saturation point during the period 2014–2050. Of major road vehicle categories, cars are the largest energy consumers, followed by trucks and buses. Growth in Chinese vehicle demand is primarily determined by per capita GDP. Vehicle saturation levels solely influence the shape of the Gompertz curve and population growth weakly affects vehicle demand. Projected total energy consumption of road vehicles in 2050 is 380, 575 and 586 million tonnes of oil equivalent for each scenario.

Practical research on energy demand - a basis for realistic energy strategies. Joint meeting held in Schliersee on May 7/8, 1981

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wenzel, B

1981-09-01

The Schliersee meeting, which is held every two years by VDI Gesellschaft Energietechnik, Energietechnische Gesellschaft des VDE, and Forschungsstelle fuer Energiewirtschaft der Gesellschaft fuer Praktische Energiekunde e.V., took place this year under the motto 'Knowledge to replace opinions'. Lectures from the fields of politics, economy, and science pointed out that energy conservation as well as future-minded energy planning require reliable and detailed knowledge on energy demand and its technical, economic, and ecological interdependences. The subjects discussed at the meeting are briefly reviewed.

A theoretical analysis of price elasticity of energy demand in multistage energy conversion systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lowe, R.

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is an analytical exploration of the problem of price elasticity of energy demand in multi-stage energy conversion systems. The paper describes in some detail an analytical model of energy demand in such systems. Under a clearly stated set of assumptions, the model makes it possible to explore both the impacts of the number of sub-systems, and of varying sub-system elasticities on overall system elasticity. The analysis suggests that overall price elasticity of energy demand for such systems will tend asymptotically to unity as the number of sub-systems increases. (author)

Demand-side management and demand response in the Ontario energy sectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

A directive from the former Minister of Energy was received by the Ontario Energy Board (OEB), directing the Board to consult with stakeholders on options for the delivery of demand-side management (DSM) and demand response (DR) activities within the electricity sector, including the role of local distribution companies in such activities. The implementation costs were to be balanced with the benefits to both consumers and the entire system. The scope of the review was expanded by the Board to include the role of gas distribution companies in DSM. A consultation process was implemented and stakeholders were invited to participate. A series of recommendations was made, including: (1) a hybrid framework utilizing market-based and public-policy approaches should deliver DSM and DR activities in Ontario's energy markets, (2) DSM and DR activities should come under the responsibility of a central agency, (3) DSM and DR activities should be coordinated through cooperation between the Ministry of Energy, the Independent Electricity Market Operator (IMO) and the Ontario Energy Board, (4) regulatory mechanisms to induce gas distributors, electricity transmitters and electricity distributors to reduce distribution system losses should be put in place, (5) all electricity consumers should fund electricity DSM and some retail DR initiatives through a transparent, non-bypassable consumption charge, and (6) the Board should design, develop and deliver information to consumers regarding energy conservation, energy efficiency, load management, and cleaner sources of energy. refs., 4 figs

Energy Demand Modeling Methodology of Key State Transitions of Turning Processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shun Jia

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Energy demand modeling of machining processes is the foundation of energy optimization. Energy demand of machining state transition is integral to the energy requirements of the machining process. However, research focus on energy modeling of state transition is scarce. To fill this gap, an energy demand modeling methodology of key state transitions of the turning process is proposed. The establishment of an energy demand model of state transition could improve the accuracy of the energy model of the machining process, which also provides an accurate model and reliable data for energy optimization of the machining process. Finally, case studies were conducted on a CK6153i CNC lathe, the results demonstrating that predictive accuracy with the proposed method is generally above 90% for the state transition cases.

Evaluation of climate change impacts on energy demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Taseska, Verica; Markovska, Natasa; Callaway, John M.

2012-01-01

change and the energy demand in Macedonia. The analyses are conducted using the MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation)-Macedonia model, with a focus on energy demand in commercial and residential sectors (mainly for heating and cooling). Three different cases are developed: 1) Base Case, which gives the optimal...... electricity production mix, taking into account country’s development plans (without climate change); 2) Climate Change Damage Case, which introduces the climate changes by adjusting the heating and cooling degree days inputs, consistent with the existing national climate scenarios; and 3) Climate Change...... Adaptation Case, in which the optimal electricity generation mix is determined by allowing for endogenous capacity adjustments in the model. This modeling exercise will identify the changes in the energy demand and in electricity generation mix in the Adaptation Case, as well as climate change damages...

Intelligent demand side management of residential building energy systems

Science.gov (United States)

Sinha, Maruti N.

Advent of modern sensing technologies, data processing capabilities and rising cost of energy are driving the implementation of intelligent systems in buildings and houses which constitute 41% of total energy consumption. The primary motivation has been to provide a framework for demand-side management and to improve overall reliability. The entire formulation is to be implemented on NILM (Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring System), a smart meter. This is going to play a vital role in the future of demand side management. Utilities have started deploying smart meters throughout the world which will essentially help to establish communication between utility and consumers. This research is focused on investigation of a suitable thermal model of residential house, building up control system and developing diagnostic and energy usage forecast tool. The present work has considered measurement based approach to pursue. Identification of building thermal parameters is the very first step towards developing performance measurement and controls. The proposed identification technique is PEM (Prediction Error Method) based, discrete state-space model. The two different models have been devised. First model is focused toward energy usage forecast and diagnostics. Here one of the novel idea has been investigated which takes integral of thermal capacity to identify thermal model of house. The purpose of second identification is to build up a model for control strategy. The controller should be able to take into account the weather forecast information, deal with the operating point constraints and at the same time minimize the energy consumption. To design an optimal controller, MPC (Model Predictive Control) scheme has been implemented instead of present thermostatic/hysteretic control. This is a receding horizon approach. Capability of the proposed schemes has also been investigated.

Current problems of the Bulgarian energy industry against the background of global short-term energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batov, S.

1999-01-01

The energy demand during the next century due first of all to the expected growth of population necessitates more efficient technologies and huge investments. The production of nuclear energy requires higher safety as well as reduction of costs. A new form of partnership between the developed and developing countries is needed for transferring capital and technologies at special framework terms in order to avoid errors in the process of transition. The Energy Forum'99 highlights the current problems of Bulgarian energy branch and the projects for its future including better utilization of the existing energy resources, for development of new or renewable energy sources, not well utilized at present, and to harmonize the sector with better environmental protection. The most important problems discussed are: 1. Structure and restructuring strategy of the energy sector. Prices and tariffs. Privatization aspects. Construction of new replacement generating capacities; 2. Thermal power plants; 3. Nuclear power plants; 4. District heating and natural gas supply; 5. Efficient energy utilization; 6. Renewable energy sources; 7. Environmental protection and 8. Education

Meeting India's growing energy demand with nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matzie, R.

2009-01-01

Full text: With world energy demand expected to nearly double by 2030, the need for safe, reliable and clean energy is imperative. In India, energy demand has outpaced the increase in energy production, with the country experiencing as much as a 12 percent gap between peak demand and availability. To meet demand, nuclear power is the ideal solution for providing baseload electricity, and as much as 40-60 GWe of nuclear capacity will need to be added throughout the county over the next 20 years. This presentation will describe the benefits of nuclear power compared to other energy sources, provide an overview of new nuclear power plant construction projects worldwide, and explain the benefits and advantages of the Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear power plant. The presentation will also outline the steps that Westinghouse is taking to help facilitate new nuclear construction in India, and how the company's 'Buy Where We Build' approach to supply chain management will positively impact the Indian economy through continued in-country supplier agreements, job creation, and the exporting of materials and components to support AP1000 projects outside of India. Finally, the presentation will show that the experience Westinghouse is gaining in constructing AP1000 plants in both China and the United States will help ensure the success of projects in India

Projecting Electricity Demand in 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hostick, Donna J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Belzer, David B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Markel, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kintner-Meyer, Michael C. W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2014-07-01

This paper describes the development of end-use electricity projections and load curves that were developed for the Renewable Electricity (RE) Futures Study (hereafter RE Futures), which explored the prospect of higher percentages (30% - 90%) of total electricity generation that could be supplied by renewable sources in the United States. As input to RE Futures, two projections of electricity demand were produced representing reasonable upper and lower bounds of electricity demand out to 2050. The electric sector models used in RE Futures required underlying load profiles, so RE Futures also produced load profile data in two formats: 8760 hourly data for the year 2050 for the GridView model, and in 2-year increments for 17 time slices as input to the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. The process for developing demand projections and load profiles involved three steps: discussion regarding the scenario approach and general assumptions, literature reviews to determine readily available data, and development of the demand curves and load profiles.

Energy supply options for Lithuania: A detailed multi-sector integrated energy demand, supply and environmental analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-09-01

The Technical Co-operation (TC) project Energy Supply Options for Lithuania: A Detailed Multi-Sector Integrated Energy Demand, Supply and Environmental Analysis (LIT/0/004) was implemented 2001-2002 by a national team with support from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The principal objective of the project was to conduct a comprehensive assessment of Lithuania's future energy supply options taking into consideration the early closure of the Ignalina nuclear power plant (Ignalina NPP). Lithuania, a country in transition to full membership of the European Union, has to comply with the energy acquis (Chapter 14). The 'acquis communautaire' (the body of common rights and obligations which bind all the Member States together) must be adopted by all applicant countries. Implementing the acquis requires not only adequate legislation, well functioning institutions (e.g. a regulatory body as required in the electricity and gas directives) or schedules for restructuring the energy sector but also measures to enhance energy supply security, improvement of energy networks, efficiency improvements throughout the energy system and compliance with European environmental standards. Within the overall context of the transition to EU membership, this study focuses on the future development of the electricity sector and the impacts on energy supply security and environmental performance of a closure of Ignalina NPP by 2009, a pre-condition for accession stipulated by the European Union. The project coincided with the preparation of the new National Energy Strategy for Lithuania and therefore was set up to support the strategy formulation process

A model approach for analysing trends in energy supply and demand at country level: case study of industrial development in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miranda-da-Cruz, S.M.

2007-01-01

Ideally, national energy supply and demand choices would be based on comprehensive models and predictions of the energy sources, energy transformations, energy carriers and energy end-uses expected to play major roles into the foreseeable future (20-40 years). However, in many cases, the necessary detailed, high quality, consistent and timely data is not available for such comprehensive models to be constructed, in particular in large and complex developing economies expected to be major energy users in the near future. In the developing countries that are the focus of UNIDO's work, attention has been concentrated on making progress simultaneously on two fronts: (a) a dramatic decrease in energy intensity, particularly in activities linked to industrial production and (b) a major increase in the contribution of local renewable energy to limit growth in fossil fuel use. National policies need to be oriented towards a strict and strategic monitoring of the respective energy matrices with a simultaneous focus on both fronts. Robust assessments of industrial development trends throughout the whole 20-40 year transition phase are needed to achieve both objectives. Until more comprehensive energy-related models can be built up, to overcome the limited availability of data at country level it is proposed that a simple energy supply and demand model analysis consisting of three phases be used for identifying the consistency of future scenarios and corresponding policy requirements. This model analysis, which is a dynamic exercise, consists, first, of an analysis at aggregate level of the current and future national energy matrices; secondly, an analysis of perspectives for decreasing the energy intensity of the most inefficient systems or industrial sectors; and thirdly, an analysis of perspectives for increasing the supply and cost-effectiveness of sustainable energy sources. As an illustration of this model approach, the case of China is analysed with emphasis on the

Balancing energy, development and climate priorities in India. Current trends and future projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Dhar, S.; Halsnaes, K.

2007-09-01

This report gives a short introduction to the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing countries. Furthermore, the report analyses Indian energy, development and climate change, followed by an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. The focus is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. (BA)

The past, present, and future of U.S. utility demand-side management programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eto, J.

1996-12-01

Demand-side management or DSM refers to active efforts by electric and gas utilities to modify customers' energy use patterns. The experience in the US shows that utilities, when provided with appropriate incentives, can provide a powerful stimulus to energy efficiency in the private sector. This paper describes the range and history of DSM programs offered by US electric utilities, with a focus on the political, economic, and regulatory events that have shaped their evolution. It also describes the changes these programs are undergoing as a result of US electricity industry restructuring. DSM programs began modestly in the 1970s in response to growing concerns about dependence on foreign sources of oil and environmental consequences of electricity generation, especially nuclear power. The foundation for the unique US partnership between government and utility interests can be traced first to the private-ownership structure of the vertically integrated electricity industry and second to the monopoly franchise granted by state regulators. Electricity industry restructuring calls into question both of these basic conditions, and thus the future of utility DSM programs for the public interest. Future policies guiding ratepayer-funded energy-efficiency DSM programs will need to pay close attention to the specific market objectives of the programs and to the balance between public and private interests

The past, present, and future of U.S. utility demand-side management programs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eto, J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States). Environmental Energy Technologies Div.

1996-12-01

Demand-side management or DSM refers to active efforts by electric and gas utilities to modify customers` energy use patterns. The experience in the US shows that utilities, when provided with appropriate incentives, can provide a powerful stimulus to energy efficiency in the private sector. This paper describes the range and history of DSM programs offered by US electric utilities, with a focus on the political, economic, and regulatory events that have shaped their evolution. It also describes the changes these programs are undergoing as a result of US electricity industry restructuring. DSM programs began modestly in the 1970s in response to growing concerns about dependence on foreign sources of oil and environmental consequences of electricity generation, especially nuclear power. The foundation for the unique US partnership between government and utility interests can be traced first to the private-ownership structure of the vertically integrated electricity industry and second to the monopoly franchise granted by state regulators. Electricity industry restructuring calls into question both of these basic conditions, and thus the future of utility DSM programs for the public interest. Future policies guiding ratepayer-funded energy-efficiency DSM programs will need to pay close attention to the specific market objectives of the programs and to the balance between public and private interests.

Holidays in lights: Tracking cultural patterns in demand for energy services

Science.gov (United States)

Román, Miguel O.; Stokes, Eleanor C.

2015-06-01

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

Holiday in Lights: Tracking Cultural Patterns in Demand for Energy Services

Science.gov (United States)

Roman, Miguel O.; Stokes, Eleanor C.

2015-01-01

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

Images of Canadian futures: the role of conservation and renewable energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sewell, W R.D.; Foster, H D

1976-01-01

The industrial, cultural, and environmental future of Canada will be formed directly by the alternatives selected today to provide future energy needs. This study was undertaken on the premise that a view of the implications for the future will lead to a more optimistic prospect for Canada. Several scenarios are considered as an aid to future policy making. It is considered that it will be necessary to look to renewable energy sources to contribute a larger share of the energy used in Canada. This signals the possibility that a less wasteful and hopefully more environmentally appropriate pattern of development may emerge in response to the changing energy situation. By adopting an improvement of the ratio of useful work performed to the total non-renewable energy expended as a major objective, Canadian society could maintain its viablility without undue sacrifice. For example, Canada could cover part of the anticipated energy shortfall by widespread conservation, extensive construction, and/or massive and expensive energy imports. If the current rate of increase in energy demands could be reduced through conservation measures by one per cent per annum, a saving of 150,000 barrels of oil per day would accrue by 1990. Two of the alternatives noted above would result either in an enormous commitment of capital resources and/or a major adverse trade balance. As a consequence, they have prophetic significance for future Canadian economic growth, social flexibility, and individual freedom. 111 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs.

Report on energy supply and demand in Canada : 2002

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dion, M.; Lacroix, J.; Smalldridge, G.; Svab, J.; Cromey, N.

2003-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of energy use in Canada. The year 1990 was used as a starting point because that is the base year for energy inventories for the Kyoto Protocol. Data was derived from monthly and quarterly surveys. The report describes data quality and methodology as well as energy conversion factors. It includes individual tables on primary and secondary energy for: coal, crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, primary electricity, steam, coke, secondary electricity, refined petroleum products, non-energy refined petroleum products, solid wood waste, and spent liquor. The most recent data on energy demand and supply indicates that Canadians consumed energy for transportation twice as fast as the nation's industries did in the past 12 years. From 1990 to 2002, energy consumption in the transportation sector increased 22.7 per cent while demand in the industrial sector rose by 11.7 per cent. Canada's energy consumption increased 17.6 per cent from 1990 to 2002. In 2002, the transportation and industrial sectors each accounted for 30 per cent of total energy consumption. Consumption of natural gas, refined petroleum and coal increased 18.1 per cent, with the greatest increased being in natural gas. In 2002, electricity produced by water, nuclear power, wind and tidal action accounted for 25 per cent of energy consumption. Secondary electricity generation from fossil fuels increased steadily. The general increase in domestic demand for energy in 2002 was due to an increase in energy consumption by the industrial sector and by growing residential sales. In 2002, the rate of increase in energy consumption in Alberta was higher than in any other province due to a booming economy and rising population. Ontario consumed the most energy in 2002, accounting for 34 per cent of the country's energy demand

Demand-Side Flexibility for Energy Transitions: Policy Recommendations for Developing Demand Response

OpenAIRE

Nursimulu, Anjali; Florin, Marie-Valentine; Vuille, François

2016-01-01

As a follow-up to IRGC's report on demand-side flexibility for energy transitions, this Policy Brief highlights that increasing flexibility in power systems is needed to accommodate higher shares of non-controllable and intermittent renewable generation, and that this requires changes to the market design and regulatory framework, to facilitate the development and deployment of appropriate technologies and market-based instruments (e.g. taxes and subsidies). The Policy Brief focuses on demand...

Developing Demand-Response Based Solutions for Hawaii’s 100% Renewable Energy Target

OpenAIRE

Kansal, Rachit

2017-01-01

The State of Hawaii has set a target to achieve a 100% Renewables by 2045. Due to the State’s high electricity prices and dependence on imported oil, renewables are seen as an environmental and economic solution to the problem. While the state has seen substantial renewables growth in the last few years, a truly transformative system is needed to push for a fully renewable future. This system would be likely to include Demand Response (DR) capability, Distributed Energy Reso...

Managing the growing energy demand - The case of Egypt

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

El-Kholy, Hosni; Faried, Ragy

2010-09-15

The electric energy consumption rate in Egypt has an average increase of 7% per year through the last three decades. In order to satisfy the ever increasing energy demand, several actions were, and have to be taken. These actions have to be carried out in parallel. The one having the greatest effect is the measures carried out for energy conservation and loss reduction. Diversifying the energy source such as utilization of Renewable Energy technologies can contribute to satisfying the demand and extending the hydro-carbon reserves life. Regional integration of electrical networks will save expenditures used to build additional power plants.

Study on energy demand function of korea considering replacement among energy sources and the structural changes of demand behavior

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moon, C.K. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

1997-08-01

If the necessity of careful study on energy function is mentioned, it should be stressed that energy investment not only needs a long gestation period but also, acts as the bottleneck in the production capacity of an economy when investment is not enough. Thereby, the adverse effect of an energy supply shortage is very big. Especially, the replacement/supplemental relationship between energy and capital which corresponds to the movement on the iso-quanta curve is believed to have a direct relation with the answer as to whether long-term economic development would be possible under an energy crisis and its influence on technology selection. Furthermore, the advantages of technological advances which correspond to the movement on the iso-quanta curve has a direct relation with the question whether long-term economic development would be possible under an energy crisis depending on whether its direction is toward energy-saving or energy-consuming. This study tackles the main issues and outlines of the quantitative approach method based on the accounting approach method for modeling energy demand, quantitative economics approach method, and production model. In order to model energy demand of the Korean manufacturing industry, related data was established and a positive analytical model is completed and presented based on these. 122 refs., 10 tabs.

A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanamura, Takashi

2009-01-01

This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kanamura, Takashi [J-POWER, 15-1, Ginza 6-Chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-8165 (Japan)

2009-09-15

This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

The prospect of coal supplier for future coal: major expansion of energy supply/demand in Indonesia