WorldWideScience

Sample records for future demand growth

  1. Asian oil refining. Demand growth and deregulation - an uncertain future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sameer Nawaz.

    1996-01-01

    The objective of the report is to identify the most important features of the oil refining industry in Asia. Major developments in consumption patterns changes in regional importance of countries are discussed, highlighting potential future developments. The first chapter introduces the various refining processes and presents a simple model for the analysis of complex refineries. Chapter 2 examines the development of the Asian refining industry against a background of economic growth and analyses trends in consumption of all products in Asian countries. In Chapter 3, the key issues concerning the refining industry are examined, among them the forces driving consumption, including the importance of economic development, and electricity and transport demand. The importance of product imports and international trade is discussed, and the extent of government involvement and the effects of changing retail and market prices are analysed. Chapter 4 looks at the strategies that oil and gas companies are following in the Asian refining industry. Particular significance is attached to the vertical integration of the oil majors, Japanese and Middle Eastern oil companies. A brief overview of the importance of the petrochemical industry is presented. The countries of Asia that are involved in the refining industry are profiled in Chapter 5. The future trend in oil consumption is examined in Chapter 6. There follows a brief discussion of the plans to expand crude refining capacity in the various countries and a forecast of the state of overcapacity which will result. In the final chapter, brief profiles of some of the most important companies in the Asian refining industry are presented, discussing their major activities and future plans. (Author)

  2. Future demand scenarios of Bangladesh power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain; Boie, Wulf; Denich, Manfred

    2010-01-01

    Data on the future electricity demand is an essential requirement for planning the expansion of a power system. The purpose of this study is to provide a general overview of electricity consumption in Bangladesh, forecast sector-wise electricity demand up to 2035 considering the base year 2005, and compare the results with official projections. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model with three scenarios, namely low gross domestic product (GDP) growth, average GDP growth and high GDP growth, is applied in this study. In the low to high GDP growth scenarios, the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement is gradually increased. The findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development. The study also compares the projected per capita electricity consumption in Bangladesh with the historical growth in several other developing countries. Such an evaluation can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in Bangladesh to meet the high future demand.

  3. Future butanes supply/demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whitley, S.C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper graphically depicts, through in-depth supply/demand analysis, how environmental regulations can be both bad and good for an industry. In the case of n-butane, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) summertime gasoline volatility regulations are a culprit - threatening to ultimately destroy refinery demand for the product as a gasoline blendstock. Waiting in the wings are environmental regulations that should eventually prove to be n-butane's savior. The regulations referred to here are the Clean Air Act (CAA) of 1990's mandate for motor fuel oxygenates. The negative impact of gasoline volatility regulations on U.S. n-butane demand and the positive impact that should come from the use of n-butane as a MTBE precursor are covered. Many variables exist which make studying the effects of these environmental regulations very difficult. Over the past three years RPC Group has conducted numerous studies on n-butane supply/demand, as impacted by both EPA gasoline volatility and fuel oxygenate regulations

  4. Future demands highly integrated solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mangler, Andreas [Rutronik Elektronische Bauelemente GmbH, Ispringen (Germany). Strategic Marketing

    2010-07-01

    The future energy supply with a high number of decentral power plants depends on the use of innovative system technology. It is a precondition for a well-functioning grid and power management over all voltage levels. (orig.)

  5. Main tendencies meeting future energy demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flach, G.; Riesner, W.; Ufer, D.

    1989-09-01

    The economic development in the German Democratic Republic within the preceding 10 years has proved that future stable economic growth of about 4 to 4.5% per annum is only achievable by ways including methods of saving resources. This requires due to the close interdependences between the social development and the level of the development in the energy sector long-term growth rates of the national income of 4 to 4.5% per annum at primary energy growth rates of less than 1% per annum. It comprises three main tendencies: 1. Organization of a system with scientific-technical, technological, economic structural-political and educational measures ensuring in the long term less increase of the energy demand while keeping the economic growth at a constant level. 2. The long-term moderate extension and modernization of the GDR's energy basis is characterized by continuing use of the indigenous brown coal resources for the existing power plant capacities and for district heating. 3. The use of modern and safe nuclear power technologies defines a new and in future more and more important element of the energy basis. Currently about 10% of electricity in the GDR are covered by nuclear energy, in 2000 it will be one third, after 2000 the growth process will continue. The experience shows: If conditions of deepened scientific consideration of all technological processes and the use of modern diagnosis and computer technologies as well as permanent improvement of the safety-technological components and equipment are guaranteed an increasing use of such systems for the production of electricity and heat is socially acceptable. Ensuring a high level of education and technical training of everyone employed in the nuclear energy industry, strict safety restrictions and independent governmental control of these restrictions are important preconditions for the further development in this field. 3 refs, 5 tabs

  6. Supply-demand controls the futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, D.

    1991-01-01

    This paper briefly discusses the futures market of petroleum and explains how futures operate. The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate that oil futures markets does no determine energy prices - it merely reflects the prices recorded through trades made in an open marketplace. A futures contract is an agreement between a buyer and a seller at a price that seems fair to both. High demand from buyers can push prices up; low demand or a willingness to sell pushes prices down. As a result, supply and demand control the futures exchange and not vice-versa. The paper goes on to explain some basic principals of the futures market including the differences between hedging and speculating on prices and marketing strategy

  7. Future United States Domestic Water Demand

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population projections, estimated per capita consumption rate, and estimated total annual water demand to 2100 for four future projections based off the IPCC SRES...

  8. Future internet concepts for demand management

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Madhoo, H

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available research and experimental initiative linked to the Future Internet (TRESCIMO) which facilitates the validity of using these technologies as base for energy demand management. The initiative utilises a philosophy of informing customers about their energy...

  9. Confronting New Demands : Inclusive Growth, Inclusive Trade ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Confronting New Demands : Inclusive Growth, Inclusive Trade. Policymakers, businesspeople and civil society advocates need evidence-based research to react ... understood implications, such as labour standards and intellectual property; ...

  10. Future demands for an Industrialized Architecture?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beim, Anne

    2011-01-01

    When speaking about the future demands for industrialized architecture – or how to translate industrialized processes into tectonic sustainable design strategies in architecture – several questions come to mind. First of all, why is the building industry in comparison to the production industry...... these questions raise a wide-spread discussion, one could argue that the building industry can benefit from different ways of architectural synthesis thinking as a basis for improving. This understood in such a way that industrialized manufacturing technologies and products should be driven by ideas...

  11. Future demand of petroleum products in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Sajal

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the long-run equilibrium relationship between total petroleum products consumption and economic growth in India for the period 1970-1971 to 2001-2002 using cointegration and error-correction modeling approach. Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests reveal that both the series, after logarithmic transformation, are non-stationary and individually integrated of order one. The empirical results suggest that the series are cointegrated. The 'long-term demand elasticity for petroleum products' has been estimated. Furthermore, as a special case, similar sort of exercise between the consumption of middle-distillates and economic growth in India using annual data for the time span 1974-1975 to 2001-2002 has been carried out, which also confirms the existence of cointegration. In-sample forecasts fitted well against actual numbers. Finally, the paper forecasts total petroleum products and middle-distillates demands till 2011-2012 and provide an idea about the investment required in refinery sector in India till 2011-2012

  12. Helium supply demand in future years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laverick, C.

    1975-01-01

    Adequate helium will be available to the year 2000 AD to meet anticipated helium demands for present day applications and the development of new superconducting technologies of potential importance to the nation. It is almost certain that there will not be enough helium at acceptable financial and energy cost after the turn of the century to meet the needs of the many promising helium based technologies now under development. Serious consideration should be given to establishing priorities in development and application based upon their relative value to the country. In the first half of the next century, three ways of estimating helium demand lead to cumulative ranges of from 75 to 125 Gcf (economic study), 89 to 470 Gcf (projected national energy growth rates) and 154 to 328 Gcf (needs for new technologies). These needs contrast with estimated helium resources in natural gas after 2000 AD which may be as low as 10 or 126 Gcf depending upon how the federal helium program is managed and the nation's natural gas resources are utilized. The technological and financial return on a modest national investment in further helium storage and a rational long term helium program promises to be considerable

  13. Aggregated Demand Response Modelling for Future Grid Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Verbic, Gregor; Hill, David J.

    2015-01-01

    With the increased penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RESs) in future grids (FGs), balancing between supply and demand will become more dependent on demand response (DR) and energy storage. Thus, FG feasibility studies will need to consider DR for modelling nett future demand. Against this backdrop, this paper proposes a demand model which integrates the aggregated effect of DR in a simplified representation of the effect of market/dispatch processes aiming at minimising th...

  14. An overview of world future energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkin, F.P.

    1995-01-01

    The World Energy Council Commission's report Energy for Tomorrow's World was published in September 1993. The Commission's three year study of world energy problems involved both bottom-up studies, undertaken by groups of experts in nine main regions of the world, and top-down studies of global aspects. The latter included the preparation of energy demand and supply projections up to the study horizon of 2020, together with a brief look at prospects up to 2100. This Paper is based on the Commission's work. (author)

  15. Energy demand in Mexico, a vision to the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esquivel E, J.; Xolocostli M, J. V.

    2017-09-01

    The energy planning allows to know the current and future energy needs of the country, with the objective of efficiently guaranteeing the supply of energy demand through the diversity of the sources used, promoting the use of clean energies such as nuclear energy. Mexico, by participating in the ARCAL project -Support for the preparation of national energy plans in order to meet energy needs in the countries of the region, making effective use of resources in the medium and long term- has developed the study of energy demand for the period 2015-2050, where, given the socio-economic and technological conditions of the country in 2012, four scenarios are proposed: Decrement al, with decreases in the GDP growth rate and in the production of the manufacturing sector; Incremental, which shows an increase in the GDP growth rate and in the manufacturing sector; Incremental Dual, scenario similar to the Incremental plus an incentive in the service sector and finally, the Tendencial scenario, which corresponds to a typical scenario-business as usual-. The study that concerns this work was developed with the MAED tool and the results that are presented correspond to the energy requirements in each scenario, for the agriculture, construction, mining, manufacturing and transport sectors. (Author)

  16. Future demand for electricity in Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibitoye, F.I.; Adenikinju, A.

    2007-01-01

    Availability and reliability of electricity supplies have always been vexed issue in Nigeria. With an estimated population of 130 million people in AD 2005, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and belongs to the group of countries with the lowest electricity consumption per capita in the continent. Nigeria is also ranked among the poorest countries in the world. This paper examines the likely trend in the demand for electricity over the next 25 years under the assumptions that (i) there is a rapid economic development such that Nigeria transforms from low- to middle-income economy during this period, (ii) Nigeria meets the millennium development goals (MDG) in AD 2015, and (iii) the country achieves the status of an industrializing nation. For these to happen, this paper projects that electric-power generation will have to rise from the current capacity of 6500 MW to over 160 GW in AD 2030. This level of supply will be significant enough to increase the per capita electricity consumption to about 5000 kWh per capita by the year 2030. Even then, this just compares with the AD 2003 per capital consumption of some industrializing countries. Analysis of the level of investment required to meet the projected power demand indicates that annual investment cost will rise from US3.8 billion in AD 2006 to a peak of US21 billion in AD 2028. The total investment stream over the 25 year period comes to US262 billion or roughly US10 billion per annum. (author)

  17. World coal prices and future energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, J.

    1992-01-01

    The Clean Air Act Amendments will create some important changes in the US domestic steam coal market, including price increases for compliance coal by the year 2000 and price decreases for high-sulfur coal. In the international market, there is likely to be a continuing oversupply which will put a damper on price increases. The paper examines several forecasts for domestic and international coal prices and notes a range of predictions for future oil prices

  18. Can Bangladesh produce enough cereals to meet future demand?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timsina, J; Wolf, J; Guilpart, N; van Bussel, L G J; Grassini, P; van Wart, J; Hossain, A; Rashid, H; Islam, S; van Ittersum, M K

    2018-06-01

    Bangladesh faces huge challenges in achieving food security due to its high population, diet changes, and limited room for expanding cropland and cropping intensity. The objective of this study is to assess the degree to which Bangladesh can be self-sufficient in terms of domestic maize, rice and wheat production by the years 2030 and 2050 by closing the existing gap (Yg) between yield potential (Yp) and actual farm yield (Ya), accounting for possible changes in cropland area. Yield potential and yield gaps were calculated for the three crops using well-validated crop models and site-specific weather, management and soil data, and upscaled to the whole country. We assessed potential grain production in the years 2030 and 2050 for six land use change scenarios (general decrease in arable land; declining ground water tables in the north; cropping of fallow areas in the south; effect of sea level rise; increased cropping intensity; and larger share of cash crops) and three levels of Yg closure (1: no yield increase; 2: Yg closure at a level equivalent to 50% (50% Yg closure); 3: Yg closure to a level of 85% of Yp (irrigated crops) and 80% of water-limited yield potential or Yw (rainfed crops) (full Yg closure)). In addition, changes in demand with low and high population growth rates, and substitution of rice by maize in future diets were also examined. Total aggregated demand of the three cereals (in milled rice equivalents) in 2030 and 2050, based on the UN median population variant, is projected to be 21 and 24% higher than in 2010. Current Yg represent 50% (irrigated rice), 48-63% (rainfed rice), 49% (irrigated wheat), 40% (rainfed wheat), 46% (irrigated maize), and 44% (rainfed maize) of their Yp or Yw. With 50% Yg closure and for various land use changes, self-sufficiency ratio will be > 1 for rice in 2030 and about one in 2050 but well below one for maize and wheat in both 2030 and 2050. With full Yg closure, self-sufficiency ratios will be well above one for

  19. A novel approach for examining future US domestic water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costs of repairing and expanding aging infrastructure and competing demands for water from other sectors such as industry and agriculture are stretching policy makers’ abilities to meet essential domestic drinking water needs for future generations. Using Bayesian statistic...

  20. Remarks on economic growth and energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, W.

    1979-01-01

    An energy policy according to the principles of decoupling is impossible without an increase in reasonable and profitable power application. It is also impossible without increased nuclear energy. Energy policy according to the principles of decoupling connects the natural growth tendency of a liberally arranged industry with the natural limits of the production factor 'nature'. Energy policy is the very sphere where tomorrow's necessities must be planned today. If in long range, a constant level of energy production struturised different from today's can be assumed, then this is future-bound. For it takes into consideration today tomorrow's necessities. This is the only guarantee we have for our industry to be able to grow tomorrow. On the basis of historical experience, an economic system will believe in the goal of a constant energy supply just as it was believing in abounding in energy up to day. The structure of the growth might change in long term. But accepting the thoughts of decoupling, progress will come. (orig./HP) [de

  1. The role of nuclear power in meeting future energy demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuchs, K.

    1977-01-01

    Future energy demands and possibilities of meeting them are outlined. The current status and future developments of nuclear energetics all over the world and in the CMEA member states are discussed considering reactor safety, fission product releases, and thermal pollution of the environment

  2. Simple future weather files for estimating heating and cooling demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cox, Rimante Andrasiunaite; Drews, Martin; Rode, Carsten

    2015-01-01

    useful estimates of future energy demand of a building. Experimental results based on both the degree-day method and dynamic simulations suggest that this is indeed the case. Specifically, heating demand estimates were found to be within a few per cent of one another, while estimates of cooling demand...... were slightly more varied. This variation was primarily due to the very few hours of cooling that were required in the region examined. Errors were found to be most likely when the air temperatures were close to the heating or cooling balance points, where the energy demand was modest and even...... relatively large errors might thus result in only modest absolute errors in energy demand....

  3. Future Parking Demand at Rail Stations in Klang Valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho Phooi Wai

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Klang Valley, Malaysia is currently undergoing a massive development of rail transportation system expansion where the current integrated rail transit system will see new extensions of two MRT lines and an LRT line by year 2020. By year 2017, the first MRT line will be ready to run with 31 new rail stations connected to the current passenger rail network. The existing Park and Ride facilities in Klang Valley are commonly known as being unable to sufficiently cater for the current parking space demand. Therefore, with the expansion of many additional rail stations which are rapidly under construction, there are doubts that the future parking space at rail stations will be able to accommodate the sudden rise of rail passengers. Although the authorities are increasing parking bays at various locations, will the future parking demand at rail stations be sufficient? This paper studies the factors influencing parking demand in terms of population, car ownership, new car registrations and passenger rail ridership and estimating the future parking demand using Linear Regression method. Result shows that the forecasted parking demand at rail stations after the implementation of the first new MRT system in 2017 is 2.7 times more than in 2014.

  4. Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2012-01-01

    Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

  5. Future land-use related water demand in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

    2016-01-01

    Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed (municipal and industrial) and agricultural land use to estimate associated water use demand from 2012 to 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total water use was projected to increase 1.8 billion cubic meters(+4.1%) driven primarily by urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Only if currently mandated 25% reductions in municipal water use are continuously implemented would water demand in 2062 balance to water use levels in 2012. This is the first modeling effort of its kind to examine regional land-use related water demand incorporating historical trends of both developed and agricultural land uses.

  6. Future supply of, and demand for, titanium, copper and lead

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grover, L.K.

    1991-01-01

    A literature survey has been conducted to assess the future world supply of, and demand for, titanium, copper and lead. These metals are candidates for the fabrication of containers for the immobilization and disposal of Canada's nuclear used-fuel in an underground disposal vault at a Used-Fuel Disposal Centre. The Centre is assumed to begin operation by the year 2020 and continue for about 40 years. The survey has shown that the world has abundant supplies of titanium minerals (mostly in the form of ilmenite), which are expected to last up to at least 2110. However, for copper and lead, the balance between supply and demand may warrant increased monitoring beyond the year 2000. A number of factors that can influence supply and demand are discussed

  7. Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

    2011-01-01

    Targeted measures influencing vehicle technology are increasingly a tool of energy policy makers within the EU as a means of meeting energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change and energy security goals. This paper develops the modelling capacity for analysing and evaluating such legislation, with a focus on private car energy demand. We populate a baseline car stock and car activity model for Ireland to 2025 using historical car stock data. The model takes account of the lifetime survival profile of different car types, the trends in vehicle activity over the fleet and the fuel price and income elasticities of new car sales and total fleet activity. The impacts of many policy alternatives may only be simulated by such a bottom-up approach, which can aid policy development and evaluation. The level of detail achieved provides specific insights into the technological drivers of energy consumption, thus aiding planning for meeting climate targets. This paper focuses on the methodology and baseline scenario. Baseline results for Ireland forecast a decline in private car energy demand growth (0.2%, compared with 4% in the period 2000–2008), caused by the relative growth in fleet efficiency compared with activity. - Highlights: ► Bottom-up private car energy forecasting model developed. ► The demographic and technological distribution of vehicle activity is a key veriable. ► Irish car energy demand growth predicted to slow steadily. ► Change in vehicle taxation forecast to save 10% energy.

  8. Single-Family Houses That Meet The Future Energy Demands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Jørgen; Svendsen, Svend

    2002-01-01

    ). Before any further tightening of the regulations are introduced, however, it is necessary to illustrate the consequences of such actions with regard to finance, building technology, indoor climate and comfort. Therefore a series of investigations and experimental projects are being launched, in order...... to examine these consequences thoroughly. The department is presently contributing to this end by participating in quite a few investigative projects, where single-family houses are designed to meet the proposed future energy demands. This paper describes the results obtained from one such project where...... the department, in co-operation with a major building entrepreneur, has developed a single-family house that shows that there are no evident problems in meeting the future energy demands....

  9. Future changes driving dietetics workforce supply and demand: future scan 2012-2022.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhea, Marsha; Bettles, Craig

    2012-03-01

    The dietetics profession faces many workforce challenges and opportunities to ensure that registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs) are at the forefront of health and nutrition. The profession must prepare for new public priorities, changes in population, and the restructuring of how people learn and work, as well as new advances in science and technology. In September 2010, the Dietetics Workforce Demand Task Force, in consultation with a panel of thought leaders, identified 10 change drivers that affect dietetics workforce supply and demand. This future scan report provides an overview of eight of these drivers. Two change drivers-health care reform and population risk factors/nutrition initiatives-are addressed in separate technical articles. A change matrix has been included at the end of this executive summary. The matrix contains a summary of each change driver and its expected impact and is designed to present the drivers in the context of a larger, dynamic system of change in the dietetics profession. The impact of any of these change drivers individually and collectively in a dynamic system is uncertain. The outcome of any change driver is also uncertain. The dietetics profession faces many choices within each change driver to meet the workforce challenges and seize the opportunities for leadership and growth. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Economics of Future Growth in Photovoltaics Manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basore, Paul A.; Chung, Donald; Buonassisi, Tonio

    2015-06-14

    The past decade's record of growth in the photovoltaics manufacturing industry indicates that global investment in manufacturing capacity for photovoltaic modules tends to increase in proportion to the size of the industry. The slope of this proportionality determines how fast the industry will grow in the future. Two key parameters determine this slope. One is the annual global investment in manufacturing capacity normalized to the manufacturing capacity for the previous year (capacity-normalized capital investment rate, CapIR, units $/W). The other is how much capital investment is required for each watt of annual manufacturing capacity, normalized to the service life of the assets (capacity-normalized capital demand rate, CapDR, units $/W). If these two parameters remain unchanged from the values they have held for the past few years, global manufacturing capacity will peak in the next few years and then decline. However, it only takes a small improvement in CapIR to ensure future growth in photovoltaics. Any accompanying improvement in CapDR will accelerate that growth.

  11. Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 3. End-Use Electricity Demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hostick, Donna [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Belzer, David B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Markel, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kintner-Meyer, Michael [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2012-06-15

    The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

  12. Surging electricity demand growth bolsters outlook for natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koen, A.D.

    1994-01-01

    Economic expansion and regulatory reform are combining to boost global opportunities for burning gas to generate electric power. Companies producing, marketing, or transporting gas are capitalizing on the improved outlook by seizing on synergistic roles in the power generation chain. Much of the improved outlook for gas stems from projected hearty increases in global demand for electricity. Bechtel Power Corp., estimates global power generation capacity during 1994--2003 will increase to as much as 1.2 billion kw, about 25% of which could be added by independent power production (IPPs). Since about 200 bcf of gas reserves producing about 20 MMcfd of gas is needed to fuel of a 100,000 kw electric generating station for 25 years, that adds up to a major growth opportunity for gas producers. The paper discusses the assessment of gas reserves, US power growth, the intent of the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (Epact), effects of Epact, gas industry response, power marketing units, synergistic possibilities, effects on US utilities, international power imperatives, non-US projects, funding good projects, and forecasting future developments

  13. Asia-Pacific region's oil demand growth strains refining capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    The rapidly industrializing Asia-Pacific region has become a stand-alone economic force and the world's growth market for oil. Japan remains the region's premier economic powerhouse but no longer its only one. And Asia-Pacific economic fortunes have decoupled from the more-mature economies of Europe and the U.S. The East-West Center, Honolulu, in January projected Asia-Pacific average oil demand growth of 3.6%/year through 1999, nearly double what most economists expect for oil demand growth worldwide. Demand reached 14.5 million b/d in 1992, up 862,000 b/d from 1991. East-West Center analysts project demand of 16.4 million b/d in 1995 and 19.1 million b/d by 2000. Not all analysts expect such rapid growth for the region. Edward N. Krapels, president of Energy Security Analysis Inc., Washington, D.C., told a seminar in Houston during March that demand in Southeast Asia will grow at an average of 500,000 b/d/year. The paper discusses economic strength; regional demand; the pressure on refining; the shortfall seen; an opposing view from the Energy Security Analysis; and construction activity

  14. A scenarios study on future demands on container and truck sizes of the future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Kraaijenhagen; Jan Jansen; H. Graser; Stef Weijers; I. Szylar

    2012-01-01

    To what extent will future demands of worldwide operating parties, regarding the (tertiary) packaging of their freight flows, determine or influence the future dimensions of freight trucks? That is the question we address to in this paper. In this study we have studied what container sizes may fit

  15. Fuel supply demand balances for future FBR commercialization: impacts on plutonium pricing and reactor design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, C.; Zebroski, E.L.

    1985-01-01

    Plutonium supply and demand balances for fast breeder reactor (FBR) commercialization post-2000 were computed to determine: (a) the maximum supportable number of FBRs that could be installed based on plutonium availability considerations and (b) the feasibility of a reasonable FBR capacity growth case assuming slow introduction post-2010 and rapid capacity growth post-2035. The purpose of the analysis was to determine the outer limitation on the maximum future FBR introduction, or the bounds of a possible plutonium-limited introduction rate, and to estimate the reasonableness of a more limited capacity growth case

  16. Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 3: End-Use Electricity Demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hostick, D.; Belzer, D.B.; Hadley, S.W.; Markel, T.; Marnay, C.; Kintner-Meyer, M.

    2012-06-01

    The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

  17. Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

    2015-11-12

    Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

  18. Global supply and demand of metals in the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Backman, Carl-Magnus

    2008-01-01

    This article is a short review on the subject of diminishing mineral resources in a world with increasing population. The concepts of reserves, resources, and life index are described. A forecast is made on the global consumption in the year 2050 of the metals iron (Fe), aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb). Evidence indicates that a physical depletion of metals does not occur (fixed stock paradigm) but certain metals will become too expensive to extract (opportunity cost paradigm). The future demand for cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), and selenium (Se) is presented. Finally, some metals presently of great interest for mineral prospectors that may have an important role in the future society are presented.

  19. Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limanond, Thirayoot; Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj; Srikaew, Artit

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: → Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. → The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. → The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

  20. Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Limanond, Thirayoot, E-mail: tlimanond@yahoo.co [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Srikaew, Artit [School of Electrical Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand)

    2011-05-15

    The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: {yields} Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. {yields} The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. {yields} The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

  1. The future demand for and structural problems of Japanese Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imai, Atsushi; Inoue, Toshihiko; Teshima, Teruki; Ohno, Yuko; Yamashita, Takashi; Mitsuhashi, Norio; Hiraoka, Masahiro; Sumi, Minako

    2001-01-01

    Recently, as the number of elderly people in Japan is growing, so is the number of new cancer cases. The number of patients treated with radiotherapy is therefore also on the increase, so that it is important to estimate the future demand for radiotherapy and to make preparations for it. All the surveys were conducted for 106 facilities selected randomly out of 556 radiotherapy facilities in Japan. To obtain trends in the number of new cancer patients treated with radiotherapy in Japan, we conducted a survey with a self-administered mail questionnaire designed to obtain the number of new patients treated with radiotherapy for each year of the past decade (1990-99). The future number of new patients treated with radiotherapy was estimated from the data thus obtained. To investigate structural problems of Japanese radiotherapy, surveys about the number of treatment machines and full-time equivalent (FTE) radiation oncologists were conducted according to data from the Japanese Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (JASTRO) structure survey and the Patterns of Care Study (PCS). We also compared the structure of Japanese radiotherapy with that in the USA. The number of patients treated with radiotherapy has increased for every institutional stratum, with an overall increase of 1.4-fold over the past 10 years in Japan. It is estimated that the number of cancer patients treated with radiotherapy will reach 190000 in 2015. In Japanese non-academic institutions, less than one FTE radiation oncologist has been managing many of these patients. In both equipment and manpower, academic institutions exceed non-academic institutions. The future demand for Japanese radiotherapy will grow substantially, so that it is of vital importance to prepare for it. Specifically, the number of FTE radiation oncologists must be increased. (author)

  2. Future role of Gulf oil in world energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eltony, M.N.

    1998-01-01

    The view that there will be a growing dependence on oil from the Gulf countries is shared by a great number of oil market analysts. This view is based on the fact that Gulf countries dominate the global oil reserves. Energy analyst argue that as the world demand for oil continues to grow driven largely by the growth in developing countries' consumption coupled with constrained non-OPEC supply, the end result will be that the call on Gulf oil will grow substantially. In summary, this paper has challenged the view of growing dependence on oil from the Gulf using available information in conjunction with reasonable and fairly plausible arguments. The aim was to point out to the GCC member counties the danger of relying on these views in shaping their economic policies and in setting their oil market strategies. They may run the ultimate risk of being left with huge oil reserves that no one wants. (orig.)

  3. Vaccines 'on demand': science fiction or a future reality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulmer, Jeffrey B; Mansoura, Monique K; Geall, Andrew J

    2015-02-01

    Self-amplifying mRNA vaccines are being developed as a platform technology with potential to be used for a broad range of targets. The synthetic production methods for their manufacture, combined with the modern tools of bioinformatics and synthetic biology, enable these vaccines to be produced rapidly from an electronic gene sequence. Preclinical proof of concept has so far been achieved for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rabies, Ebola, cytomegalovirus, human immunodeficiency virus and malaria. This editorial highlights the key milestones in the discovery and development of self-amplifying mRNA vaccines, and reviews how they might be used as a rapid response platform. The paper points out how future improvements in RNA vector design and non-viral delivery may lead to decreases in effective dose and increases in production capacity. The prospects for non-viral delivery of self-amplifying mRNA vaccines are very promising. Like other types of nucleic acid vaccines, these vaccines have the potential to draw on the positive attributes of live-attenuated vaccines while obviating many potential safety limitations. Hence, this approach could enable the concept of vaccines on demand as a rapid response to a real threat rather than the deployment of strategic stockpiles based on epidemiological predictions for possible threats.

  4. Industry Demands and Future of Engineering Education in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Rutto

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Engineering Education in Kenya remains the major determinant of country’s economic agenda. However, at the moment the education system offers the industry and society unsatisfactory knowledge and services due to mismatch between the supplied educational talents and the ever changing world of engineering. It is imperative that the Kenyan engineering education be designed to tackle challenges emerging in our societies and industries by providing real tangible practical skills. The government on its part should take its share by supporting and giving direction to institution offering such courses. In order to produce graduates with employable skills, institutions of engineering must aim at quality while ensuring massification of students into programs never happens. This paper is thus designed to show challenges facing quality of engineering education offered in Kenya in relation to the society and industrial needs. The paper also highlights the future demands needed on Kenyan engineering education. The write-up is expected to inspire education designers and curriculum developers in preparing programs that provide for the society and industry.

  5. Current status and future projections of LNG demand and supplies: A global prospective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Satish; Kwon, Hyouk-Tae; Choi, Kwang-Ho; Hyun Cho, Jae; Lim, Wonsub; Moon, Il

    2011-01-01

    An unceasing growth of gas consumption in domestic households, industry, and power plants has gradually turned natural gas into a major source of energy. Main drivers in this development are the technical and economic advantages of natural gas. It is a clean, versatile, and easily controllable fuel. On this basis, natural gas is often considered the form of energy that will be the 'bridging fuel' to a sustainable energy system, sometime after 2050. Unlike other main sources of energy, such as oil and coal, gas is not traded on an actual world market. This paper provides an overview on demand and supplies of natural gas (LNG) in the past as a function of gas prices, gas technology (gas sweetening, liquefaction, shipping and re-gasification), and gas market and how they have changed recently. It also discusses the likely developments in global LNG demand for the period to the year 2030. - Highlights: → This study provides an overview on demand and supplies of LNG in the past and future. → Outlook for LNG demand in Asia pacific region is very robust. → In past decade the shale gas production in USA has increased fivefold. → The future of European gas supply depends largely on the geopolitical environments. → Within the gas sector LNG is playing an ever increasing role in gas transportation.

  6. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Popescu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB, and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040. Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years, whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970–2000 and topographical characteristics of the area.

    Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy. The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  7. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popescu, I.; Brandimarte, L.; Perera, M. S. U.; Peviani, M.

    2012-08-01

    La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB), and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040). Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years), whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970-2000) and topographical characteristics of the area. Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy). The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  8. Economic growth, regional disparities and energy demand in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng, Yu; Shi, Xunpeng; Zhang, Dandan

    2014-01-01

    Using the panel data of 27 provinces between 1978 and 2008, we employed a instrumental regression technique to examine the relationship between economic growth, energy demand/production and the related policies in China. The empirical results show that forming a cross-province integrated energy market will in general reduce the response of equilibrium user costs of energy products to their local demand and production, through cross-regional energy transfer (including both energy trade and cross-regional reallocation). In particular, reducing transportation costs and improving marketization level are identified as two important policy instruments to enhance the role of energy market integration. The findings support the argument for a more competitive cross-province energy transfer policies and calls for more developed energy connectivity and associate institutional arrangements within China. These policy implications may also be extended to the East Asia Summit region where energy market integration is being actively promoted. - Highlights: • Development driving energy demand has different impacts on energy prices than others. • EMI will reduce the response of equilibrium energy prices to local demand and production. • Reducing transportation costs and improving marketization level enhance the role of EMI. • More market competition and better physical and institutional connectivity are better. • Policy implications to China may be extended to the East Asia Summit region

  9. The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d' Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

  10. Research on Future Skill Demands: A Workshop Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilton, Margaret

    2008-01-01

    Over the past five years, business and education groups have issued a series of reports indicating that the skill demands of work are rising, due to rapid technological change and increasing global competition. Researchers have begun to study changing workplace skill demands. Some economists have found that technological change is…

  11. Future Capacity Procurements Under Unknown Demand and Increasing Costs

    OpenAIRE

    Apostolos Burnetas; Stephen Gilbert

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we study a situation in which a broker must manage the procurement of a short-life-cycle product. As the broker observes demand for the item, she learns about the demand process. However, as is often the case in practice, it becomes either more difficult or more expensive to procure the item as the selling season advances. Thus, the broker must trade off higher procurement costs against the benefit of making ordering decisions with better information about demand. Problems of th...

  12. Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dall, Timothy M; Storm, Michael V; Chakrabarti, Ritashree; Drogan, Oksana; Keran, Christopher M; Donofrio, Peter D; Henderson, Victor W; Kaminski, Henry J; Stevens, James C; Vidic, Thomas R

    2013-07-30

    This study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025. A microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform. The estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. In the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future.

  13. Understanding China’s past and future energy demand: An exergy efficiency and decomposition analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brockway, Paul E.; Steinberger, Julia K.; Barrett, John R.; Foxon, Timothy J.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We complete the first time series exergy and useful work study of China (1971–2010). • Novel exergy approach to understand China’s past and future energy consumption. • China’s exergy efficiency rose from 5% to 13%, and is now above US (11%). • Decomposition finds this is due to structural change not technical leapfrogging. • Results suggests current models may underestimate China’s future energy demand. - Abstract: There are very few useful work and exergy analysis studies for China, and fewer still that consider how the results inform drivers of past and future energy consumption. This is surprising: China is the world’s largest energy consumer, whilst exergy analysis provides a robust thermodynamic framework for analysing the technical efficiency of energy use. In response, we develop three novel sub-analyses. First we perform a long-term whole economy time-series exergy analysis for China (1971–2010). We find a 10-fold growth in China’s useful work since 1971, which is supplied by a 4-fold increase in primary energy coupled to a 2.5-fold gain in aggregate exergy conversion efficiency to useful work: from 5% to 12.5%. Second, using index decomposition we expose the key driver of efficiency growth as not ‘technological leapfrogging’ but structural change: i.e. increasing reliance on thermodynamically efficient (but very energy intensive) heavy industrial activities. Third, we extend our useful work analysis to estimate China’s future primary energy demand, and find values for 2030 that are significantly above mainstream projections

  14. The Job Demands?Resources model: Challenges for future research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. Demerouti (Eva); A.B. Bakke (Arnold B.)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractMotivation: The motivation of this overview is to present the state of the art of Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model whilst integrating the various contributions to the special issue. Research purpose: To provide an overview of the JD-R model, which incorporates many possible working

  15. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Hutson, N.; Lamm, C. R.; Pei, Y. L.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Winebrake, J. J.

    2013-03-01

    Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analytical models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  16. Long-range prospects of world energy demands and future energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozaki, Yasuji

    1998-01-01

    The long-range prospects for world energy demands are reviewed, and the major factors which are influential in relation to energy demands are discussed. The potential for various kinds of conventional and new energy sources such as fossil fuels, solar energies, nuclear fission, and fusion energies to need future energy demands is also discussed. (author)

  17. Industrial and commercial considerations affecting future uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostuik, J.

    1977-01-01

    The paper examines the available evidence relating to the balance of supply and demand for uranium, with particular reference to factors which are likely to affect commercial decisions. The physical constraints limiting the rate of expansion of production are examined, both in the short term, based on known ore-bodies, and in the longer term, as a result of exploration. The scale of the uncertainties in estimated demand, and the consequential need for a determined effort to improve the data base on which commercial judgements have to be made is stressed. The powerful influences which governmental actions can have on commercial decision-making, and on the freedom to produce and export uranium, are illustrated

  18. Industrial and commercial considerations affecting future uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostuik, J.

    1977-01-01

    The paper examines the available evidence relating to the balance of supply and demand for uranium, with particular reference to factors which are likely to affect commercial decisions. The physical constraints limiting the rate of production expansion are examined, both in the short term, based on known ore-bodies, and in the longer term, as a result of exploration. The scale of the uncertainties in estimated demand are stressed, and the consequential need for a determined effort to improve the data-base on which commercial judgements have to be made. The powerful influences which governmental actions can have on commercial decision-making and on the freedom to produce and export uranium, are mentioned. (author)

  19. The Job Demands?Resources model: Challenges for future research

    OpenAIRE

    Demerouti, Eva; Bakke, Arnold B.

    2011-01-01

    textabstractMotivation: The motivation of this overview is to present the state of the art of Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model whilst integrating the various contributions to the special issue. Research purpose: To provide an overview of the JD-R model, which incorporates many possible working conditions and focuses on both negative and positive indicators of employee well-being. Moreover, the studies of the special issue were introduced. Research design: Qualitative and quantitative studie...

  20. Future Supply and Demand for Oncologists : Challenges to Assuring Access to Oncology Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Clese; Salsberg, Edward; Forte, Gaetano; Bruinooge, Suanna; Goldstein, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Purpose To conduct a comprehensive analysis of supply of and demand for oncology services through 2020. This study was commissioned by the Board of Directors of ASCO. Methods New data on physician supply gathered from surveys of practicing oncologists, oncology fellows, and fellowship program directors were analyzed, along with 2005 American Medical Association Masterfile data on practicing medical oncologists, hematologists/oncologists, and gynecologic oncologists, to determine the baseline capacity and to forecast visit capacity through 2020. Demand for visits was calculated by applying age-, sex-, and time-from-diagnosis-visit rate data from the National Cancer Institute's analysis of the 1998 to 2002 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database to the National Cancer Institute's cancer incidence and prevalence projections. The cancer incidence and prevalence projections were calculated by applying a 3-year average (2000–2002) of age- and sex-specific cancer rates from SEER to the US Census Bureau population projections released on March 2004. The baseline supply and demand forecasts assume no change in cancer care delivery and physician practice patterns. Alternate scenarios were constructed by changing assumptions in the baseline models. Results Demand for oncology services is expected to rise rapidly, driven by the aging and growth of the population and improvements in cancer survival rates, at the same time the oncology workforce is aging and retiring in increasing numbers. Demand is expected to rise 48% between 2005 and 2020. The supply of services provided by oncologists during this time is expected to grow more slowly, approximately 14%, based on the current age distribution and practice patterns of oncologists and the number of oncology fellowship positions. This translates into a shortage of 9.4 to 15.0 million visits, or 2,550 to 4,080 oncologists—roughly one-quarter to one-third of the 2005 supply. The baseline projections do not

  1. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grenzeback, L. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Brown, A. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Fischer, M. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Hutson, N. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Lamm, C. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Pei, Y. L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vyas, A. D. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Winebrake, J. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2013-03-01

    Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and by extrapolation, to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050, requiring ever-greater amounts of energy. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand; the possible trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand and related energy use. After describing federal policy actions that could influence freight demand, the report then summarizes the available analytical models for forecasting freight demand, and identifies possible areas for future action.

  2. Comparisons of recent growth in actual demand, planned demand, and planned generating capacity at U. S. electric utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bopp, A.E. (James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States))

    1994-12-01

    During the winter of 1993, a number of U.S. electric utilities and some regional power pools discovered that current load exceeded generating capacity. Load restrictions followed, as entire regions-not just isolated utilities or even states-cut back. Was 1993 a typical, or simply a preview of the future If a preview, how did this shortage occur For a number of years, utilities, regulatory agencies, and power pools have been planning to add capacity at a much lower rate than the rate at which load has been growing. The National Electricity Reliability Council (NERC) has projected that eight of it's nine regions will have demand growth exceed capacity growth. The only region where capacity is growing faster is in the Texas Region. There are four reasons behind this shortage: excess capacity in the 1980's, disbelief in current forecasts, passage of the Clean Air act bringing stricter regulation on power plants, and the herd mentality where utilities have all delayed new plant construction.

  3. Pulpwood supply and demand : development in the South, little growth elsewhere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Irene. Durbak

    2002-01-01

    This long-range outlook derives from analysis of pulp and paper markets and pulpwood demands for wood panels. The analysis projects modest increases in pulpwood demand beyond 2010, with decelerating growth in paper and paperboard consumption; increased demand for pulpwood in wood panels; increased imports of pulp, paper, and paperboard; and little additional growth in...

  4. Scenarios for Demand Growth of Metals in Electricity Generation Technologies, Cars, and Electronic Appliances

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    This study provides scenarios toward 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars, and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt, and lithium. The study shows how highly technology-specific data on products and material flows can be used in integrated assessment models to assess global resource and metal demand. We use the Shared Socio-economic Pathways as implemented by the IMAGE integrated assessment model as a starting point. This allows us to translate information on the use of electronic appliances, cars, and renewable energy technologies into quantitative data on metal flows, through application of metal content estimates in combination with a dynamic stock model. Results show that total demand for copper, neodymium, and tantalum might increase by a factor of roughly 2 to 3.2, mostly as a result of population and GDP growth. The demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to increase much more, by a factor 10 to more than 20, as a result of future (hybrid) electric car purchases. This means that not just demographics, but also climate policies can strongly increase metal demand. This shows the importance of studying the issues of climate change and resource depletion together, in one modeling framework. PMID:29533657

  5. Scenarios for Demand Growth of Metals in Electricity Generation Technologies, Cars, and Electronic Appliances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deetman, Sebastiaan; Pauliuk, Stefan; van Vuuren, Detlef P; van der Voet, Ester; Tukker, Arnold

    2018-04-17

    This study provides scenarios toward 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars, and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt, and lithium. The study shows how highly technology-specific data on products and material flows can be used in integrated assessment models to assess global resource and metal demand. We use the Shared Socio-economic Pathways as implemented by the IMAGE integrated assessment model as a starting point. This allows us to translate information on the use of electronic appliances, cars, and renewable energy technologies into quantitative data on metal flows, through application of metal content estimates in combination with a dynamic stock model. Results show that total demand for copper, neodymium, and tantalum might increase by a factor of roughly 2 to 3.2, mostly as a result of population and GDP growth. The demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to increase much more, by a factor 10 to more than 20, as a result of future (hybrid) electric car purchases. This means that not just demographics, but also climate policies can strongly increase metal demand. This shows the importance of studying the issues of climate change and resource depletion together, in one modeling framework.

  6. Future energy demand in Laos. Scenario alternatives for development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luukkanen, J.; Kouphokham, K.; Panula-Ontto, J. [and others

    2012-07-01

    Energy production in Laos is still dominated by traditional fuels. Fuelwood in the main source of energy and most of the energy is consumed at households for cooking. Increase in the number of cars and motorbikes is rapidly increasing the use of imported petroleum products. Electrification is one of the central targets of the Lao government. The electrification rate has increased fast in Laos and in the year 2010 over 70 % households had electricity supply. The target is to have 90 % access to electricity by the year 2020. The World Bank regards the electrification of Lao PDR to be a success story. This paper deals with the present and future energy consumption in Laos. First the historical trends of energy use in different sectors are analysed. The future scenarios are constructed using LaoLinda model. Four different future alternative development paths are analysed using the model results. The energy use data source for the analysis is from the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) of Lao PDR. Economic and other data is from the Department of Statistics of Lao PDR.

  7. An accelerator-driven reactor for meeting future energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Hiroshi; Yang, Y.; Yu, A.

    1997-01-01

    Fissile fuel can be produced at a high rate using an accelerator-driven Pu-fueled subcritical fast reactor which avoids encountering a shortage of Pu during a high growth rate in the production of nuclear energy. Furthermore, the necessity of the early introduction of the fast reactor can be moderated. Subcritical operation provides flexible nuclear energy options along with high neutron economy for producing the fuel, for transmuting high-level waste such as minor actinides, and for efficiently converting excess and military Pu into proliferation-resistant fuel

  8. Future demands for imported coal in Asian countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, T.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that one of the main characteristics of international coal trade in the 1980's was a much higher growth rate recorded in steam coal trade than in coking coal trade. Another was that coal import in Asia started to expand rapidly at the start of the 1980's. Increased coal imports by Asian countries is primarily attributed to growing steam coal imports. Steam coal accounted for more than two-thirds of the additional coal imports by Asian countries between 1980 and 1988. Nonetheless, coking coal still forms the largest segment of Pacific coal trade. Only in the early 1990's is steam coal trade expected to exceed coking coal trade in the Pacific

  9. How to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Haiyun; Chen, Ji; Sivakumar, Bellie; Peart, Mervyn

    2017-04-01

    Regarded as a driving force in water, food and energy demands, the world's population has been increasing rapidly since the beginning of the 20th century. According to the medium-growth projection scenario of the United Nations, the world's population will reach 9.5 billion by 2050. In response to the continuously growing population during this century, water, food and energy demands have also been increasing rapidly, and social problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if no proper management strategies are adopted. Then, how to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future? This study focuses on the sustainable developments of population, water, food, energy and dams, and the significances of this study can be concluded as follows: First, we reveal the close association between dams and social development through analysing the related data for the period 1960-2010, and argue that construction of additional large dams will have to be considered as one of the best available options to meet the increasing water, food and energy demands in the future. We conduct the projections of global water, food and energy consumptions and dam development for the period 2010-2050, and the results show that, compared to 2010, the total water, food and energy consumptions in 2050 will increase by 20%, 34% and 37%, respectively. Moreover, it is projected that additional 4,340 dams will be constructed by 2050 all over the world. Second, we analyse the current situation of global water scarcity based on the related data representing water resources availability (per capita available water resources), dam development (the number of dams), and the level of economic development (per capita gross domestic product). At the global scale, water scarcity exists in more than 70% of the countries around the world, including 43 countries suffering from economic water scarcity and 129 countries suffering from physical water

  10. Planning for community resilience to future United States domestic water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costs of repairing and expanding aging infrastructure and competing demands for water from other sectors such as industry and agriculture are stretching water managers’ abilities to meet essential domestic drinking water needs for future generations. Using Bayesian statistical mo...

  11. Future travel demand and its implications for transportation infrastructure investments in the Texas Triangle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-01

    This study takes a megaregion approach to project future travel demand and choice of transport : modes in the Texas Triangle, which is encompassed by four major metropolitan areas, Dallas-Fort : Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin. The model was ...

  12. The Impact of Economic Parameter Uncertainty Growth on Regional Energy Demand Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Vasilyevna Mazurova

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the forecasting studies based on the energy demand and prices in the region in terms of the complex interconnections between economy (and energy and the growth of uncertainty of the future development of the country and territories. The authors propose a methodological approach, which combines the assessment of the price elasticity of energy demand with the optimization of energy and fuel regional supply. In this case, the price elasticity of demand is determined taking into account the comparison of cost-effectiveness of using different types of fuel and energy by different consumers. The originality of the proposed approach consists in simulating the behaviour of suppliers’ (energy companies and large customers’ (power plants, boiler rooms, industry, transport, population depending on energy price changes, the existing and new technologies, energy-saving activities and restrictions on fuel supplies. To take into account the uncertainty of future economic and energy conditions, some parameters such as prospective technical and economic parameters, price, technological parameters are set as the intervals of possible values with different probability levels. This approach allows making multivariate studies with different combinations of the expected conditions and receiving as a result the range of the projected values of studied indicators. The multivariate calculations show that the fuel demand has a nonlinear dependence on the consumer characteristics, pricing, projection horizon, and the nature of the future conditions uncertainty. The authors have shown that this effect can be significant and should be considered in the forecasts of the development of fuel and energy sector. The methodological approach and quantitative evaluation can be used to improve the economic and energy development strategies of the country and regions

  13. Gas demand growth and trade in South-East Europe: What perspectives for Bulgaria?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brendow, K.

    2002-01-01

    Gas demand and trade are said to grow in South-East Europe, and inter-regional gas transit is believed to gain importance. Despite a 5 to 10 year delay in economics and energy reforms compared to EU accession countries, prospects for economic recovery and a sustained growth of gas demand around 3.9%/year to 2020 in the region and 6.7% in Bulgaria appear real. Growth is contained by investment needs, vested interests in, and competition from, coal and nuclear as well as concerns about future gas prices, and import dependence. The densification of national and regional gas systems will proceed. Inter-regional (North-South and East-West) high-capacity gas pipeline will emerge as a tempting business perspective. While these perspectives are medium- and long-term, competition among pipeline projects is already waging at present. Bulgaria, Romania and Greece position themselves so as to safeguard future transit revenues, the latter country, in cooperation with Turkey, appearing to move fast with the support of the EU. A region wide optimisation of infrastructure projects appears desirable, however national strategic interests may conflict. (author)

  14. Import demand of crude oil and economic growth. Evidence from India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Sajal

    2009-01-01

    This study establishes a long-run equilibrium relationship among quantity of crude oil import, income and price of the imported crude in India for the time span 1970-1971 to 2005-2006 using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration. Empirical results show that the long-term income elasticity of imported crude in India is 1.97 and there exists a unidirectional long-run causality running from economic growth to crude oil import. So reduction of crude oil import will not affect the future economic growth in India in the long-run. India should take various energy efficiency and demand side management measures in transport sector along with other measures like expanding and strengthening indigenous resource-base, substituting imported fuels by domestic fuels and de-controlling the price of petroleum products to reduce its import dependence. (author)

  15. Climate change, renewable energy and population impact on future energy demand for Burkina Faso build environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouedraogo, B. I.

    This research addresses the dual challenge faced by Burkina Faso engineers to design sustainable low-energy cost public buildings and domestic dwellings while still providing the required thermal comfort under warmer temperature conditions caused by climate change. It was found base don climate change SRES scenario A2 that predicted mean temperature in Burkina Faso will increase by 2oC between 2010 and 2050. Therefore, in order to maintain a thermally comfortable 25oC inside public buildings, the projected annual energy consumption for cooling load will increase by 15%, 36% and 100% respectively for the period between 2020 to 2039, 2040 to 2059 and 2070 to 2089 when compared to the control case. It has also been found that a 1% increase in population growth will result in a 1.38% and 2.03% increase in carbon emission from primary energy consumption and future electricity consumption respectively. Furthermore, this research has investigated possible solutions for adaptation to the severe climate change and population growth impact on energy demand in Burkina Faso. Shading devices could potentially reduce the cooling load by up to 40%. Computer simulation programming of building energy consumption and a field study has shown that adobe houses have the potential of significantly reducing energy demand for cooling and offer a formidable method for climate change adaptation. Based on the Net Present Cost, hybrid photovoltaic (PV) and Diesel generator energy production configuration is the most cost effective local electricity supply system, for areas without electricity at present, with a payback time of 8 years when compared to diesel generator stand-alone configuration. It is therefore a viable solution to increase electricity access to the majority of the population.

  16. Demand response from the non-domestic sector: Early UK experiences and future opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grünewald, Philipp; Torriti, Jacopo

    2013-01-01

    Demand response is believed by some to become a major contributor towards system balancing in future electricity networks. Shifting or reducing demand at critical moments can reduce the need for generation capacity, help with the integration of renewables, support more efficient system operation and thereby potentially lead to cost and carbon reductions for the entire energy system. In this paper we review the nature of the response resource of consumers from different non-domestic sectors in the UK, based on extensive half hourly demand profiles and observed demand responses. We further explore the potential to increase the demand response capacity through changes in the regulatory and market environment. The analysis suggests that present demand response measures tend to stimulate stand-by generation capacity in preference to load shifting and we propose that extended response times may favour load based demand response, especially in sectors with significant thermal loads. - Highlights: • Empirical demand response data from non-domestic sector evaluated. • Load profiles suggest strong sector dependence on availability response at system peak. • Majority of aggregated demand response still stems from stand-by generation, not from demand turn down. • Scope for substantial increase in demand response capacity if response times were extended

  17. The impact of future energy demand on renewable energy production – Case of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenberg, Eva; Lind, Arne; Espegren, Kari Aamodt

    2013-01-01

    Projections of energy demand are an important part of analyses of policies to promote conservation, efficiency, technology implementation and renewable energy production. The development of energy demand is a key driver of the future energy system. This paper presents long-term projections of the Norwegian energy demand as a two-step methodology of first using activities and intensities to calculate a demand of energy services, and secondly use this as input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway to optimize the Norwegian energy system. Long-term energy demand projections are uncertain and the purpose of this paper is to illustrate the impact of different projections on the energy system. The results of the analyses show that decreased energy demand results in a higher renewable fraction compared to an increased demand, and the renewable energy production increases with increased energy demand. The most profitable solution to cover increased demand is to increase the use of bio energy and to implement energy efficiency measures. To increase the wind power production, an increased renewable target or higher electricity export prices have to be fulfilled, in combination with more electricity export. - Highlights: • Projections to 2050 of Norwegian energy demand services, carriers and technologies. • Energy demand services calculated based on intensities and activities. • Energy carriers and technologies analysed by TIMES-Norway. • High renewable target results in more wind power production and electricity export. • Increased energy efficiency is important for a high renewable fraction

  18. Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H.C.; Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot

    2009-01-01

    Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand. This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TDP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days. (author)

  19. Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de, E-mail: fabio@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Nuclear and Engineering Center; Imakuma, Kengo, E-mail: kimakuma@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Information Technology Development Dept.

    2011-07-01

    This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

  20. Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de; Imakuma, Kengo

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

  1. The effects of declining population growth on the demand for housing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas C. Marcin

    1974-01-01

    Declining population growth and unprecedented changes in the age structure of the population in the next several decades will profoundly affect housing demand in the next 50 years. A decline in housing demand and substantial change in the type of housing in demand are likely to occur by 1990.

  2. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ou Xunmin; Zhang Xiliang; Chang Shiyan

    2010-01-01

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

  3. Identifying water price and population criteria for meeting future urban water demand targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashoori, Negin; Dzombak, David A.; Small, Mitchell J.

    2017-12-01

    Predictive models for urban water demand can help identify the set of factors that must be satisfied in order to meet future targets for water demand. Some of the explanatory variables used in such models, such as service area population and changing temperature and rainfall rates, are outside the immediate control of water planners and managers. Others, such as water pricing and the intensity of voluntary water conservation efforts, are subject to decisions and programs implemented by the water utility. In order to understand this relationship, a multiple regression model fit to 44 years of monthly demand data (1970-2014) for Los Angeles, California was applied to predict possible future demand through 2050 under alternative scenarios for the explanatory variables: population, price, voluntary conservation efforts, and temperature and precipitation outcomes predicted by four global climate models with two CO2 emission scenarios. Future residential water demand in Los Angeles is projected to be largely driven by price and population rather than climate change and conservation. A median projection for the year 2050 indicates that residential water demand in Los Angeles will increase by approximately 36 percent, to a level of 620 million m3 per year. The Monte Carlo simulations of the fitted model for water demand were then used to find the set of conditions in the future for which water demand is predicted to be above or below the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power 2035 goal to reduce residential water demand by 25%. Results indicate that increases in price can not ensure that the 2035 water demand target can be met when population increases. Los Angeles must rely on furthering their conservation initiatives and increasing their use of stormwater capture, recycled water, and expanding their groundwater storage. The forecasting approach developed in this study can be utilized by other cities to understand the future of water demand in water-stressed areas

  4. NOx emissions trading: Precursor to future growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colella, A.

    1993-01-01

    Title I of the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 specified the framework for enhanced regulation in ozone non-attainment areas with increasingly stringent requirements dependent on the area classification - marginal, moderate, serious, severe or extreme. Before the CAAA were passed, only volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were regulated as precursors to ozone formation, Now, by statute, emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) are also regulated as ozone precursor. Under the CAAA, new sources and modifications of existing sources are subject to Title I permitting requirements in ozone non-attainment areas if emissions of NO x and/or VOCs exceed certain triggering levels. For many new or facility expansion projects, especially power generation, the NO x thresholds are easily exceeded thus triggering Title I non-attainment new source review which requires application of control technology to new equipment which results in the Lowest Achievable Emission Rate (LAER), and securing emission reductions either internally or from other major sources to offset the increased emission from the new or modified source. The selection of a LAER technology is generally within an applicant's control. An applicant can determine up-front the engineering and cost considerations associated with LAER technology is assessing a project's viability. However, without a clear source of emission offsets of a means to secure them, assessing project viability could be difficult if not impossible. No available emission offsets means no industrial growth. For sources of NO x undergoing Title I new source review, a regional or state banking system that facilitates NO x emissions trading is needed as a precursor to future growth. This paper presents an overview of EPA's Emissions Trading Policy and Title I new source review offset provisions. Industry's concerns about emissions trading and recommendations for future trading programs are presented

  5. Money growth volatility and the demand for money in Germany: Friedman's volatility hypothesis revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Brüggemann, Imke; Nautz, Dieter

    1997-01-01

    Recently, the Bundesbank claimed that monetary targeting has become considerably more diffcult by the increased volatility of short-term money growth. The present paper investigates the impact of German money growth volatility on income velocity and money demand in view of Friedman's money growth volatility hypothesis. Granger-causality tests provide some evidence for a velocity-volatility linkage. However the estimation of volatility-augmented money demand functions reveals that - in contras...

  6. Electricity supply industry modelling for multiple objectives under demand growth uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinrich, G.; Basson, L.; Howells, M.; Petrie, J.

    2007-01-01

    Appropriate energy-environment-economic (E3) modelling provides key information for policy makers in the electricity supply industry (ESI) faced with navigating a sustainable development path. Key challenges include engaging with stakeholder values and preferences, and exploring trade-offs between competing objectives in the face of underlying uncertainty. As a case study we represent the South African ESI using a partial equilibrium E3 modelling approach, and extend the approach to include multiple objectives under selected future uncertainties. This extension is achieved by assigning cost penalties to non-cost attributes to force the model's least-cost objective function to better satisfy non-cost criteria. This paper incorporates aspects of flexibility to demand growth uncertainty into each future expansion alternative by introducing stochastic programming with recourse into the model. Technology lead times are taken into account by the inclusion of a decision node along the time horizon where aspects of real options theory are considered within the planning process. Hedging in the recourse programming is automatically translated from being purely financial, to include the other attributes that the cost penalties represent. From a retrospective analysis of the cost penalties, the correct market signals, can be derived to meet policy goal, with due regard to demand uncertainty. (author)

  7. PVC makers study expansions to meet demand growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, D.; Coeyman, M.

    1993-01-01

    As prospects for the polyvinyl chloride (PVC) industry continue to improve, the next batch of capacity increases is being studied. Vista Chemical (Houston) sees an opportunity to achieve what company president James R. Ball calls the lowest-cost capacity addition in the market, by debottlenecking its PVC plants at Aberdeen, MS and Oklahoma City. That would increase capacity 40%, adding 300 million lbs/year to Vista's 830 million lbs/year. US demand for PVC grew 12.5% through the first 10 months of 1992, to 7.3 billion lbs, according to the latest figures available from the Society of the Plastics Industry. Alan Bailey, Oxy-Chem's executive v.p./polymers and plastics, predicts a good demand year in 1993 - better even than 1992, driven by an upward trend in housing starts and a recovering economy

  8. Future Customer Demand on the Supply Chain and Contribution of the Milk Run Concept at Iggesund Paperboard AB

    OpenAIRE

    Keller, Marielle; Kuylenstierna, Iris

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Since there is an increased uncertainty of future customer demand industries and firms have to be more responsive meeting this volatile demand. Making the supply chain more efficient is one way of doing this.   Iggesund Paperboard AB (IPAB) wants a greater consciousness about their future customer demand of the supply chain and therefore an investigation of the predicted future customer demand is made. This investigation included secondary data analysis and in-depth interviews with e...

  9. A robust optimization model for green regional logistics network design with uncertainty in future logistics demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezhi Zhang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article proposes a new model to address the design problem of a sustainable regional logistics network with uncertainty in future logistics demand. In the proposed model, the future logistics demand is assumed to be a random variable with a given probability distribution. A set of chance constraints with regard to logistics service capacity and environmental impacts is incorporated to consider the sustainability of logistics network design. The proposed model is formulated as a two-stage robust optimization problem. The first-stage problem before the realization of future logistics demand aims to minimize a risk-averse objective by determining the optimal location and size of logistics parks with CO2 emission taxes consideration. The second stage after the uncertain logistics demand has been determined is a scenario-based stochastic logistics service route choices equilibrium problem. A heuristic solution algorithm, which is a combination of penalty function method, genetic algorithm, and Gauss–Seidel decomposition approach, is developed to solve the proposed model. An illustrative example is given to show the application of the proposed model and solution algorithm. The findings show that total social welfare of the logistics system depends very much on the level of uncertainty in future logistics demand, capital budget for logistics parks, and confidence levels of the chance constraints.

  10. Future demand and advancement in medical fields for best allocation of research funding

    OpenAIRE

    Hermanns, Valerie; Grignano, Daniel; Latobesi, Andrew; Ho, Mark

    2017-01-01

    For a high school competition we were provided with access to altmetric data, and asked to predict the future of science. Based upon this, we shifted our focus to the medical sector, and to the correlation between future demand, and current research. Based on this focus, our goal was to predict which medical sectors will have the greatest need for research funding in the coming years. Our results will aid in the distribution of research funding in order to prepare for increased demand in medi...

  11. 2015 California Demand Response Potential Study - Charting California’s Demand Response Future. Interim Report on Phase 1 Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alstone, Peter; Potter, Jennifer; Piette, Mary Ann; Schwartz, Peter; Berger, Michael A.; Dunn, Laurel N.; Smith, Sarah J.; Sohn, Michael D.; Aghajanzadeh, Arian; Stensson, Sofia; Szinai, Julia

    2016-04-01

    Demand response (DR) is an important resource for keeping the electricity grid stable and efficient; deferring upgrades to generation, transmission, and distribution systems; and providing other customer economic benefits. This study estimates the potential size and cost of the available DR resource for California’s three investor-owned utilities (IOUs), as the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) evaluates how to enhance the role of DR in meeting California’s resource planning needs and operational requirements. As the state forges a clean energy future, the contributions of wind and solar electricity from centralized and distributed generation will fundamentally change the power grid’s operational dynamics. This transition requires careful planning to ensure sufficient capacity is available with the right characteristics – flexibility and fast response – to meet reliability needs. Illustrated is a snapshot of how net load (the difference between demand and intermittent renewables) is expected to shift. Increasing contributions from renewable generation introduces steeper ramps and a shift, into the evening, of the hours that drive capacity needs. These hours of peak capacity need are indicated by the black dots on the plots. Ultimately this study quantifies the ability and the cost of using DR resources to help meet the capacity need at these forecasted critical hours in the state.

  12. The future prospects of supply and demand for urologists in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Youngho

    2017-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to forecast the future supply and demand for urologists and to discuss the possible policy implications. A demographic utilization-based model was used to calculate the total urologist requirements for Korea. Utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient genitourinary specialty services were estimated according to age, sex, and insurance status. These rates were used to estimate genitourinary specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to genitourinary physician requirements by applying per-genitourinary-physician productivity estimates. An in-and-out movement model for urologist supply was used. Depending on assumptions about data at each step in the method, the supply of urologic surgeons is expected to exceed the demand by 2025 under the current enrollment rate of specialists (43.5% in 2012) when comparing the results of the projections under demand scenarios 3 and 4. However, if the current enrollment rate persists, the imbalance in supply and demand will be not severe by 2030. The degree of imbalance can be alleviated by 2030 by maintaining the current occupancy rate of urologic residents of 43.5%. This study shows that the number of residents needs to be reduced according to the supply and demand for urologic surgeons. Moreover, a policy should be established to maintain the current occupancy rate of residents. The factors affecting the supply and demand of urologic surgeons are complicated. Thus, comprehensive policies encompassing these factors should be established with appropriate solutions.

  13. The prospect of coal supplier for future coal: major expansion of energy supply/demand in Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tirtosoekotjo, S. [Ministry of Mines and Energy (Indonesia)

    2000-07-01

    Since the mid 1980s Indonesia's coal industry has shown a high development growth both in production and coal sales. The majority of coal producers are located in Sumatra and Kalimantan islands and the majority of domestic coal consumers are located in Java islands, while the major Indonesian coal exporters are Asia-Pacific countries (80%). In the future (up to 2003) there will be more domestic and export potential demand which will increase at an average of 2-3 million tons per annum (15%) and 5-7 million tons per annum (11%) respectively. 4 refs., 2 figs., 7 tabs.

  14. 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study - Charting California’s Demand Response Future. Final Report on Phase 2 Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alstone, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Potter, Jennifer [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Piette, Mary Ann [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Schwartz, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Berger, Michael A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dunn, Laurel N. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Smith, Sarah J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Aghajanzadeh, Aruab [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Stensson, Sofia [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Szinai, Julie [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Walter, Travis [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McKenzie, Lucy [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Lavin, Luke [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Schneiderman, Brendan [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Mileva, Ana [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Cutter, Eric [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Olson, Arne [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Bode, Josh [Nexant, Inc., Nashville, TN (United States); Ciccone, Adriana [Nexant, Inc., Nashville, TN (United States); Jain, Ankit [Nexant, Inc., Nashville, TN (United States)

    2017-03-01

    California’s legislative and regulatory goals for renewable energy are changing the power grid’s dynamics. Increased variable generation resource penetration connected to the bulk power system, as well as, distributed energy resources (DERs) connected to the distribution system affect the grid’s reliable operation over many different time scales (e.g., days to hours to minutes to seconds). As the state continues this transition, it will require careful planning to ensure resources with the right characteristics are available to meet changing grid management needs. Demand response (DR) has the potential to provide important resources for keeping the electricity grid stable and efficient, to defer upgrades to generation, transmission and distribution systems, and to deliver customer economic benefits. This study estimates the potential size and cost of future DR resources for California’s three investor-owned utilities (IOUs): Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), Southern California Edison Company (SCE), and San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). Our goal is to provide data-driven insights as the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) evaluates how to enhance DR’s role in meeting California’s resource planning needs and operational requirements. We address two fundamental questions: 1. What cost-competitive DR service types will meet California’s future grid needs as it moves towards clean energy and advanced infrastructure? 2. What is the size and cost of the expected resource base for the DR service types?

  15. Integrated assessment of future land use in Brazil under increasing demand for bioenergy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verstegen, Judith; van der Hilst, Floortje; Karssenberg, Derek; Faaij, André

    2014-01-01

    Environmental impacts of a future increase in demand for bioenergydepend on the magnitude, location and pattern of the direct and indirectland use change of energy cropland expansion. Here we aim at 1)projecting the spatiotemporal pattern of sugar cane expansion and theeffect on other land uses in

  16. Provincial panel: addressing emerging energy constraints and new strategies to meet future generation demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarkson, J.

    2006-01-01

    This paper addresses emerging energy constraints and new strategies to meet future generation demand in the Province of Manitoba. The focus is to reduce reliance on energy sources that emit greenhouse gases such as petroleum, natural gas and coal, and increase clean and green electricity. The current plan is to double hydro generation, achieve 1000 MW wind power and utilize bio energy

  17. Robustness of the Drinking Water Distribution Network under Changing Future Demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Agudelo-Vera, C.; Blokker, M.; Vreeburg, J.; Bongard, T.; Hillegers, S.; Van der Hoek, J.P.

    2014-01-01

    A methodology to determine the robustness of the drinking water distribution system is proposed. The performance of three networks under ten future demand scenarios was tested, using head loss and residence time as indicators. The scenarios consider technological and demographic changes. Daily

  18. Projection of Chinese motor vehicle growth, oil demand, and CO2 emissions through 2050

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    During this study a methodology was developed to project growth trends of the motor vehicle population and associated oil demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China through 2050. In particular, the numbers of highway vehicles, motorcycles, an...

  19. Physically demanding work, fetal growth and the risk of adverse birth outcomes. The Generation R Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.A. Snijder (Claudia); T. Brand (Teus); V.W.V. Jaddoe (Vincent); A. Hofman (Albert); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); E.A.P. Steegers (Eric); A. Burdorf (Alex)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractObjectives: Work-related risk factors, such as long work hours, and physically demanding work have been suggested to adversely influence pregnancy outcome. The authors aimed to examine associations between various aspects of physically demanding work with fetal growth in different

  20. Physically demanding work, fetal growth and the risk of adverse birth outcomes. The Generation R Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijder, Claudia A.; Brand, Teus; Jaddoe, Vincent; Hofman, Albert; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Steegers, Eric A. P.; Burdorf, Alex

    2012-01-01

    Objectives Work-related risk factors, such as long work hours, and physically demanding work have been suggested to adversely influence pregnancy outcome. The authors aimed to examine associations between various aspects of physically demanding work with fetal growth in different trimesters during

  1. Actual growth and probable future of the worldwide nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bupp, I.C.

    1981-01-01

    Worldwide nuclear-power-reactor manufacturing capacity will exceed worldwide demand by a factor of two or more during the 1980s. Only in France and the Soviet bloc countries is it likely that the ambitious nuclear-power programs formulated in the mid-1970s will be implemented. In all other developed countries and in most developing countries, further delays and cancellations of previously announced programs are all but certain. The stalemate over the future of nuclear power is particularly deep in America. Administrative and personnel problems in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, slow progress on radioactive waste disposal by the Department of Energy, severe financial problems for most electric utilities, and drastic reductions in the rate of electricity demand growth combine to make continuation of the five-year-old moratorium on reactor orders inevitable. Many of the ninety plants under construction may never operate, and some of the seventy in operation may shut down before the end of their economic life. Contrary to widespread belief, further oil price increases may not speed up world-wide reactor sales. It is possible that the world is heading for a worst of all possible outcomes: a large number of small nuclear power programs that do little to meet real energy needs but substantially complicate the problem of nuclear weapons proliferation. 24 references, 4 tables

  2. A search for distinctive features of demand-led growth models

    OpenAIRE

    Sergio Parrinello

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims at a critical and constructive assessment of some extensions of Keynes’s analysis of effective demand to the long period and growth. A criticism is addressed to a single-cause interpretation of the demand-led growth models and to the notion of normal capacity utilization adopted in such models. A positive argument tries to find a distinctive characterization of those extensions in the productive and financial conditions that make effective the autonomous changes in aggregate d...

  3. The clinical endocrinology workforce: current status and future projections of supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigersky, Robert A; Fish, Lisa; Hogan, Paul; Stewart, Andrew; Kutler, Stephanie; Ladenson, Paul W; McDermott, Michael; Hupart, Kenneth H

    2014-09-01

    Many changes in health care delivery, health legislation, and the physician workforce that affect the supply and demand for endocrinology services have occurred since the first published workforce study of adult endocrinologists in 2003. The objective of the study was to assess the current adult endocrinology workforce data and provide the first analysis of the pediatric endocrinology workforce and to project the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025. A workforce model was developed from an analysis of proprietary and publicly available databases, consultation with a technical expert panel, and the results of an online survey of board-certified endocrinologists. The Endocrine Society commissioned The Lewin Group to estimate current supply and to project gaps between supply and demand for endocrinologists. A technical expert panel of senior endocrinologists provided context, clinical information, and direction. The following were measured: 1) the current adult and pediatric endocrinology workforce and the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025 and 2) the number of additional entrants into the endocrinology work pool that would be required to close the gap between supply and demand. Currently there is a shortage of approximately 1500 adult and 100 pediatric full-time equivalent endocrinologists. The gap for adult endocrinologists will expand to 2700 without an increase in the number of fellows trained. An increase in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus further expands the demand for adult endocrinologists. The gap can be closed in 5 and 10 years by increasing the number of fellowship positions by 14.4% and 5.5% per year, respectively. The gap between supply and demand for pediatric endocrinologists will close by 2016, and thereafter an excess supply over demand will develop at the current rate of new entrants into the work force. There are insufficient adult endocrinologists to satisfy current and future demand. A number of proactive

  4. Projection of Chinese motor vehicle growth, oil demand, and CO{sub 2}emissions through 2050.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, M.; Huo, H.; Johnson, L.; He, D.

    2006-12-20

    As the vehicle population in China increases, oil consumption and carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions associated with on-road transportation are rising dramatically. During this study, we developed a methodology to project trends in the growth of the vehicle population, oil demand, and CO{sub 2} emissions associated with on-road transportation in China. By using this methodology, we projected--separately--the number of highway vehicles, motorcycles, and rural vehicles in China through 2050. We used three scenarios of highway vehicle growth (high-, mid-, and low-growth) to reflect patterns of motor vehicle growth that have occurred in different parts of the world (i.e., Europe and Asia). All are essentially business-as-usual scenarios in that almost none of the countries we examined has made concerted efforts to manage vehicle growth or to offer serious alternative transportation means to satisfy people's mobility needs. With this caveat, our projections showed that by 2030, China could have more highway vehicles than the United States has today, and by 2035, it could have the largest number of highway vehicles in the world. By 2050, China could have 486-662 million highway vehicles, 44 million motorcycles, and 28 million rural vehicles. These numbers, which assume essentially unmanaged vehicle growth, would result in potentially disastrous effects on the urban infrastructure, resources, and other social and ecological aspects of life in China. We designed three fuel economy scenarios, from conservative to aggressive, on the basis of current policy efforts and expectations of near-future policies in China and in developed countries. It should be noted that these current and near-future policies have not taken into consideration the significant potential for further fuel economy improvements offered by advanced technologies such as electric drive technologies (e.g., hybrid electric vehicles and fuel-cell vehicles). By using vehicle growth projections and

  5. World energy supply and demand and the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lantzke, U.

    1977-01-01

    The author discusses the OECD's report ''World Energy Outlook'', which concluded that a severe energy gap could, and probably would, develop by the mid-1980s if present energy policies continue. Should nuclear power fail to make a substantial contribution, this situation is predicted to become even worse. The author states that an energy gap can only be realistically avoided by a combination of (a) deep energy conservation, (b) even greater use of coal, and (c) nuclear power. New energy technologies cannot realistically be expected to make a significant contribution much before the end of the century. Conservation and coal alone, however, will not be sufficient. It is difficult to envisage energy savings of more than 10% without reducing economic activity to a degree that becomes politically unacceptable. Greater use of coal is undoubtedly feasible, but the potential is severely constrained in the medium term for economic, technological and environmental reasons. Nuclear power must also make a significant contribution. However, estimates of OECD nuclear energy supply for 1985 have been scaled drastically downwards during 1976 owing to: uncertainty in the utility sector over future growth in electricity demand; continued, and in some cases increased, opposition to nuclear power; and delays and uncertainties in government nuclear policies and programmes. The author concludes that we cannot afford any further shortfall and we must move urgently to: (a) give strong and unswerving support to thermal nuclear reactor programmes (requiring that governments adopt clear and coherent nuclear policies, taking into account the legitimate concern expressed by the public); (b) develop stable and long-term international arrangements so that the necessary nuclear fuel facilities can be made available on a secure basis for peaceful uses of nuclear power; (c) decide what the real proliferation risk is and agree on action to avoid it; and (d) make renewed and stronger efforts to solve

  6. Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Röder, Mirjam; Thornley, Patricia; Campbell, Grant; Bows-Larkin, Alice

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Conflicts between adapting to climate change, food security and reducing emissions. • Climate change likely to limit wheat production in the southern hemisphere. • Climate change yield benefits marginally increase emissions per unit of product. • Improved yield will result in higher total production emissions. • Production-based inventories discourage an increase in production. - Abstract: Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions

  7. Estimating future dental services' demand and supply: a model for Northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jäger, Ralf; van den Berg, Neeltje; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; Schwendicke, Falk

    2016-04-01

    To plan dental services, a spatial estimation of future demands and supply is required. We aimed at estimating demand and supply in 2030 in Northern Germany based on the expected local socio-demography and oral-health-related morbidity, and the predicted number of dentists and their working time. All analyses were performed on zip-code level. Register data were used to determine the number of retiring dentists and to construct regression models for estimating the number of dentists moving into each zip-code area until 2030. Demand was modelled using projected demography and morbidities. Demand-supply ratios were evaluated and spatial analyses applied. Sensitivity analyses were employed to assess robustness of our findings. Compared with 2011, the population decreased (-7% to -11%) and aged (from mean 46 to 51 years) until 2030. Oral-health-related morbidity changed, leading to more periodontal and fewer prosthetic treatments needs, with the overall demand decreasing in all scenarios (-25% to -33%). In contrast, the overall number of dentists did only limitedly change, resulting in moderate decrease in the supplied service quantities (max. -22%). Thus, the demand-supply ratio increased in all but the worst case scenario, but was unequally distributed between spatial units, with several areas being over- and some being under- or none-serviced in 2030. Within the limitations of the underlying data and the required assumptions, this study expects an increasingly polarized ratio of dental services demand and supply in Northern Germany. Our estimation allows to assess the impact of different influence factors on demand or supply and to specifically identify potential challenges for workforce planning and regulation in different spatial units. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. The future prospects of supply and demand for urologists in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this study was to forecast the future supply and demand for urologists and to discuss the possible policy implications. Materials and Methods A demographic utilization-based model was used to calculate the total urologist requirements for Korea. Utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient genitourinary specialty services were estimated according to age, sex, and insurance status. These rates were used to estimate genitourinary specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to genitourinary physician requirements by applying per-genitourinary-physician productivity estimates. An in-and-out movement model for urologist supply was used. Results Depending on assumptions about data at each step in the method, the supply of urologic surgeons is expected to exceed the demand by 2025 under the current enrollment rate of specialists (43.5% in 2012) when comparing the results of the projections under demand scenarios 3 and 4. However, if the current enrollment rate persists, the imbalance in supply and demand will be not severe by 2030. The degree of imbalance can be alleviated by 2030 by maintaining the current occupancy rate of urologic residents of 43.5%. Conclusions This study shows that the number of residents needs to be reduced according to the supply and demand for urologic surgeons. Moreover, a policy should be established to maintain the current occupancy rate of residents. The factors affecting the supply and demand of urologic surgeons are complicated. Thus, comprehensive policies encompassing these factors should be established with appropriate solutions. PMID:29124238

  9. New Zealand's neurologist workforce: a pragmatic analysis of demand, supply and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranta, Annemarei Anna; Tiwari, Priyesh; Mottershead, John; Abernethy, David; Simpson, Mark; Brickell, Kiri; Lynch, Christopher; Walker, Elizabeth; Frith, Richard

    2015-08-07

    To estimate current and future specialist neurologist demand and supply to assist with health sector planning. Current demand for the neurology workforce in New Zealand was assessed using neuroepidemiological data. To assess current supply, all New Zealand neurology departments were surveyed to determine current workforce and estimate average neurologist productivity. Projections were made based on current neurologists anticipated retirement rates and addition of new neurologists based on current training positions. We explored several models to address the supply-demand gap. The current supply of neurologists in New Zealand is 36 full-time equivalents (FTE), insufficient to meet current demand of 74 FTE. Demand will grow over time and if status quo is maintained the gap will widen. Pressures on healthcare dollars are ever increasing and we cannot expect to address the identified service gap by immediately doubling the number of neurologists. Instead we propose a 12-year strategic approach with investments to enhance service productivity, strengthen collaborative efforts between specialists and general service providers, moderately increase the number of neurologists and neurology training positions, and develop highly skilled non-specialists including trained.

  10. How to analyze the supply and demand balance to predict future volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willis, K.

    2002-01-01

    The impact of electricity price volatility with a focus on supply and demand is discussed. Factors that influence volatility and the impact of volatility on market participants are also highlighted. It is this author's view that despite initial difficulties and customary inefficiencies (not unusual in a new market), the market performed as might have been expected and government interference in the market was not necessary. As far as market participants are concerned, they must be vigilant at all times because of the millisecond time horizons; an understanding of market volatility and its key drivers are absolutely essential to proper management of risks inherent in the market. An understanding of the relationship between supply and demand and volatility is important. Just as important, or even more so, is an appreciation of the delicate nature of this relationship and the dynamics behind it. Consequently, one must apply the same rigor that is used to analyze supply and demand in the electricity market to other market fundamentals such as the natural gas market, interconnections, generation fuel sources, regulatory actions and market rules. A three-step process, involving a review of history to develop the relationships, supply and demand forecasts and scenario planning, is proposed for use in analyzing supply and demand to predict future volatility. Irrespective of the sophistication of analytical tools, the most important determinant to success in the electricity market is for market players to perceive the earliest signs of a changing market landscape and respond to them with lightning speed

  11. Estimation of energy storage capacity in power system in japan under future demand and supply factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurihara, Ikuo; Tanaka, Toshikatsu

    1996-01-01

    The desirable capacity of future energy storage facility in power system in Japan is discussed in this paper, putting emphasis on future new electric demand/supply factors such as CO 2 emission problems and social structure change. The two fundamental demand scenarios are considered; one is base case scenario which extrapolates the trend until now and the other is social structure change scenario. The desirable capacity of the energy storage facility is obtained from the result of optimum generation mix which minimizes the yearly expenses of the target year (2030 and 2050). The result shows that the optimum capacity of energy storage facility is about 10 to 15%. The social structure change and demand side energy storage have great influences on the optimum capacity of supply side storage. The former increases storage capacity. The latter reduces it and also contributes to the reduction of generation cost. Suppression of CO 2 emission basically affects to reduce the storage capacity. The load following operation of nuclear plant also reduces the optimum storage capacity in the case it produces surplus energy at night. Though there exist many factors which increase or decrease the capacity of energy storage facility, as a whole, it is concluded that the development of new energy storage technology is necessary for future. (author)

  12. Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallaba, Florian; Olin, Stefan; Engström, Kerstin; Abdi, Abdulhakim M.; Boke-Olén, Niklas; Lehsten, Veiko; Ardö, Jonas; Seaquist, Jonathan W.

    2017-12-01

    In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production) supply-demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell), hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply shortfalls stem from

  13. Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Sallaba

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production supply–demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell, hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply

  14. Bitcoin as digital money: Its growth and future sustainability

    OpenAIRE

    Pradipta Kumar SAHOO

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the comprehensive idea about the growth and future sustainability of bitcoin as a cryptocurrency. The transaction volume of bitcoin is used as the growth of the bitcoin and the bitcoin log return is used for testing the volatility which is helpful for the future sustainability of bitcoin. The study period says that the growth of bitcoin’s transaction volume is an increasing trend as more day to day transaction is minting with the exchange of Bitcoin. The stu...

  15. Economic growth to raise U.S. oil products, natural gas demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1994-01-01

    An accelerating economy will raise consumption of oil products and natural gas in the US this year. Contributing to demand growth will be the slump that began late last year in prices for crude oil and petroleum products. Some price recovery is likely in 1994, but there's little reason to expect a major increase. With oil production falling and demand rising, imports will have to climb again this year. OGJ projects a 2.6% increase this year following a 6.6% increase last year. Imports are expected to fill a record high 49.3% of US oil demand this year. The paper discusses energy and the economy, overall energy use, energy by source, the electrification trend, energy supplies, imports, refining operations, the growth of margins, and the energy demand of motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuels, residual fuel oils, other petroleum products, and natural gas

  16. Money demand in general equilibrium endogenous growth: Estimating the role of a variable interest elasticity

    OpenAIRE

    Gillman, Max; Otto, Glen

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents and tests a theory of the demand for money that is derived from a general equilibrium, endogenous growth economy, which in effect combines a special case of the shopping time exchange economy with the cash-in-advance framework. The model predicts that both higher inflation and financial innovation - that reduces the cost of credit - induce agents to substitute away from money towards exchange credit. The implied interest elasticity of money demand rises with the inflation r...

  17. A search for distinctive features of demand-led growth models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Parrinello

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at a critical and constructive assessment of some extensions of Keynes’s analysis of effective demand to the long period and growth. A criticism is addressed to a single-cause interpretation of the demand-led growth models and to the notion of normal capacity utilization adopted in such models. A positive argument tries to find a distinctive characterization of those extensions in the productive and financial conditions that make effective the autonomous changes in aggregate demand. It suggests a notion of normal capacity utilization as a range of distributions of normal utilization, related to the cost minimizing choice of techniques and to the persistence of the long term expectations of normal prices underlying the investment decisions. In such a context a long-period analysis with normal prices should avoid a dual steady growth where constant relative prices of capital goods correspond to constant proportions among the stocks of fixed capital.

  18. A Study on stabilization of energy supply and demand using foreign futures market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Won Chul; Lee, Sung Keun [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-02-01

    This study seeks to minimize financial cost related to the price stabilization and the supply and demand stabilization. In order to accomplish this, it derives a theoretical model of supply hedging to minimize fluctuation risk of price and financial cost intended for crude oil and LNG. Through the positive analysis based on this, it analyzes quantitatively the economic effect of utilizing foreign futures market. It shows the decline of average and divergence of supply cost. Despite the economic effect of utilizing a futures market, the degree of utilizing energy futures market of related firms in Korea appeared to be insufficient. To raise the utilization of trading in futures, the followings were suggested. Firstly, cost reduction and sharing relating information can be designed through the joint participation among allied enterprises. Secondly, energy futures transaction center in Korea can be established or trading linkage based on the existing international trading system can be built. Thirdly, it is possible to subsidize related cost by making a loan from trading in futures. Lastly, the participating directly in a futures market at government level can be considered. (author). 61 refs., 57 figs., 22 tabs.

  19. Alternative demographic futures and the composition of the demand for labor, by industry and by occupation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serow, W J

    1981-01-01

    An effort is made in this discussion to demonstrate the effects of varying rates of population growth upon the industrial and occupational compositions of demand for labor. The discussion extends previous research activity that has demonstrated that changes in the composition of consumer demand are insensitive to alternative rates of population growth. The discussion begins with a replication of projections of consumer demand patterns under 3 alternative population projections and then transforms these results into projections of final demand by industrial sector, demand for labor by industrial sector, and demand for labor by occupational group. Projections of US household composition patterns are made for the 1980-2020 period. The size and composition of the population and households are derived from US Bureau of the Census Series 1, 2, and 3 projections. From these, projections of size and composition of the labor force are derived utilizing Bureau of Labor Statistics' to 1990. Projections of average earnings per worker, in the aggregate, are taken from Bureau of Economic Analysis projections. The results show that both labor force compositions are relatively insensitive to varying demographic patterns. The industrial composition reflects a continuation of already existing trends, but the occupational composition shows some tendency to move away from professional and highly skilled blue collar occupations and towards service and clerical occupations. The results contain a variety of implications for policy considerations concerning higher education and the proper functioning of the labor market. The relative decline in the number of professional and managerial workers, the groups who are most likely to possess a university degree, suggests that the prospects for conventional higher education might be even less bright than would be suggested by an inspection of trends in the size of the 18-24 year old population. Some mitigation of this possibly adverse trend is

  20. Proceedings of the Chinese-American symposium on energy markets and the future of energy demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyers, S. (ed.)

    1988-11-01

    The Symposium was organized by the Energy Research Institute of the State Economic Commission of China, and the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory and Johns Hopkins University from the United States. It was held at the Johns Hopkins University Nanjing Center in late June 1988. It was attended by about 15 Chinese and an equal number of US experts on various topics related to energy demand and supply. Each presenter is one of the best observers of the energy situation in their field. A Chinese and US speaker presented papers on each topic. In all, about 30 papers were presented over a period of two and one half days. Each paper was translated into English and Chinese. The Chinese papers provide an excellent overview of the emerging energy demand and supply situation in China and the obstacles the Chinese planners face in managing the expected increase in demand for energy. These are matched by papers that discuss the energy situation in the US and worldwide, and the implications of the changes in the world energy situation on both countries. The papers in Part 1 provide historical background and discuss future directions. The papers in Part 2 focus on the historical development of energy planning and policy in each country and the methodologies and tools used for projecting energy demand and supply. The papers in Part 3 examine the pattern of energy demand, the forces driving demand, and opportunities for energy conservation in each of the major sectors in China and the US. The papers in Part 4 deal with the outlook for global and Pacific region energy markets and the development of the oil and natural gas sector in China.

  1. The Implication of Effectiveness of Demand for Money on Economic Growth in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taiwo Adewale Muritala

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The demand for money plays a major role in macroeconomic analysis, especially inselecting appropriate policy. This brings in the demand for money function which expresses amathematical relationship between the quantity of money demanded and its various determinants;interest rate, income, price level, credit availability, frequency of payments etc. Aggregate demandwill be affected only in so far as consumption or investment is affected by the change in the interestrate. Against this background, the task in this paper is to empirically analyze and examine theimplication of the effectiveness of demand for money on economic growth performance within theNigerian context between the periods of 1970-2008 through the use of the application of OrdinaryLeast Square method, the multiple linear regressionanalysis on E-views 7.0. The paper thereforeconcludes that money demand has a major effect on the aggregate demand which accounts for theGDP of the economy. This implies that by ensuring efficiency in demand for money, aggregatedemand would be achieved and adequately sustained growth that will ensure that inflation is atminimum will be achieved in the economy.

  2. Temperature effects on future energy demand in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shivakumar, Abhishek

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is projected to adversely impact different parts of the world to varying extents. Preliminary studies show that Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts, including changes to precipitation levels and temperatures. This work will analyse the effect of changes in temperature on critical systems such as energy supply and demand. Factors that determine energy demand include income, population, temperature (represented by cooling and heating degree days), and household structures. With many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa projected to experience rapid growth in both income and population levels, this study aims to quantify the amplified effects of these factors - coupled with temperature changes - on energy demand. The temperature effects will be studied across a range of scenarios for each of the factors mentioned above, and identify which of the factors is likely to have the most significant impact on energy demand in Sub-Saharan Africa. Results of this study can help set priorities for decision-makers to enhance the climate resilience of critical infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa.

  3. Energy demand in Mexico, a vision to the future; La demanda energetica en Mexico, una vision al futuro

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Esquivel E, J.; Xolocostli M, J. V., E-mail: jaime.esquivel@inin.gob.mx [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Toluca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

    2017-09-15

    The energy planning allows to know the current and future energy needs of the country, with the objective of efficiently guaranteeing the supply of energy demand through the diversity of the sources used, promoting the use of clean energies such as nuclear energy. Mexico, by participating in the ARCAL project -Support for the preparation of national energy plans in order to meet energy needs in the countries of the region, making effective use of resources in the medium and long term- has developed the study of energy demand for the period 2015-2050, where, given the socio-economic and technological conditions of the country in 2012, four scenarios are proposed: Decrement al, with decreases in the GDP growth rate and in the production of the manufacturing sector; Incremental, which shows an increase in the GDP growth rate and in the manufacturing sector; Incremental Dual, scenario similar to the Incremental plus an incentive in the service sector and finally, the Tendencial scenario, which corresponds to a typical scenario-business as usual-. The study that concerns this work was developed with the MAED tool and the results that are presented correspond to the energy requirements in each scenario, for the agriculture, construction, mining, manufacturing and transport sectors. (Author)

  4. Future Electricity Demand of the Emerging European Countries and the CIS Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Fatih Bayramoglu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, one of the leading factors used in the evaluation of a country’s economic development is energy consumption. Because of economic growth, demand for energy is also increasing. In this study, the emerging European countries’ (the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Turkey and the CIS countries’ (Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan  electricity consumption has been forecasted for five years period (2015-2019. In the study, GM(1,1 Rolling Model, which is developed in the framework of Grey System Theory is used as a mathematical model for real-time forecasting. The results of the study show that there will not be a significant change in electricity demand in this two area during the 2015-2109 period.

  5. World energy supply and demand and the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lantzke, U.

    1977-01-01

    The OECD's world energy outlook analyses projected trends in energy damnd and supply for the OECD area and other major global regions to 1985. It provides a brief discussion of trends after 1985. OECD energy consumption is projected to grow more slowly than in the past. Conservation effects will increase efficiency of energy use per unit of economic growth. All domestic energy supplies in the OECD are projected to expand faster than in the past. The relative share of non-fossil energy sources in total production will be almost doubled. Assuming moderate economic growth, existing energy policies and a constnat real price for oil, the outlook's reference case projects OECD oil import at 35 million barrels a day by 1985. This level of import demand, when combined with the import needs of other oil importing areas, could approach the limit of availability of world oil supplies and as a result cause severe disequilibrium in world energy markets. The outlook indicates such severe disruption can be avoided by action to improve the world energy supply and demand balance without impeding economic growth objectives. Strong measures will be required both to conserve energy and to develop new energy supplies. The biggest increment to the OECD's energy supply by 1985 is expected to come from nuclear power. This substantial nuclear contribution will be inevitable and irreplaceable. As a result urgent solutions to problems concerning safety, availability of fuel cycle services, the environment, cost escalation and construction delays will be required

  6. Nuclear separations for radiopharmacy : the need for improved separations to meet future research and clinical demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, A.H.; Rogers, R.D.; Dietz, M.L.

    2000-01-01

    Several recent national and international reports have predicted that the demand for radionuclides used in medicine will increase significantly over the next 20 years. Separation science is an integral part of the production and development of new radionuclides for diagnostic and therapeutic applications and will play a major role in process improvements to existing radiopharmaceuticals to meet increasing demands. The role of separation science in the production of radionuclides for medical applications is briefly discussed, followed by an overview of the manuscripts from the American Chemical Society symposium 'Nuclear Separations for Radiopharmacy'. A listing of the most widely used radionuclides in clinical application and medical research serves as a foundation for the discussion of future research opportunities in separation science

  7. Economic growth and energy demand in Brazil from 1930 to 1980

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theis, I.M.

    1988-10-01

    There are enough evidences that economic growth and energy demand are closely related indeed. These evidences show that the growth of the economic activity calls for greater energy inputs. The Brazilian case is similar to the other industrialized economies, in spite of our industrialization process being started only in the 1930. Two periods excelled as phases of quick and accelerated growth of the Economic Product: the later fifties and the famous miracle from 1968 to 1973. During those periods the demand for energy in Brazil increased to amounts previously unthinkable. More remarkable, however, is that, after those phases of accelerated growth, Brazilian economy had changed the consumption profile considerably: while, until 1968 firewood was the most important resource, since then petroleum has taken this position. (author). 213 refs, 115 tabs

  8. Future water supply and demand in response to climate change and agricultural expansion in Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K.; Zhou, T.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.

    2016-12-01

    With ongoing global environmental change and an increasing population, it is challenging (to say the least) to understand the complex interactions of irrigation and reservoir systems. Irrigation is critical to agricultural production and food security, and is a vital component of Texas' agricultural economy. Agricultural irrigation currently accounts for about 60% of total water demand in Texas, and recent occurrences of severe droughts has brought attention to the availability and use of water in the future. In this study, we aim to assess future agricultural irrigation water demand, and to estimate how changes in the fraction of crop irrigated land will affect future water availability in Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the United States. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which has been calibrated and validated over major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model, coupling with an irrigation scheme and a reservoir module, is adopted to simulate the water management and regulations. The evolution on agricultural land is also considered in the model as a changing fraction of crop for each grid cell. The reservoir module is calibrated and validated based on the historical (1915-2011) storage records of major reservoirs in Texas. The model is driven by statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The lowest (RCP 2.6) and highest (RC P8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios are adopted for future projections to provide an estimate of uncertainty bounds. We expect that our results will be helpful to assist decision making related to reservoir operations and agricultural water planning for Texas under future climate and environmental changes.

  9. Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Santos

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for charcoal, however, may lead to increasing impacts on forests, food, and water resources, and may even create additional pressures on the climate system. Here we assess how different charcoal scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP relate to potential biomass supply. For this, we use the energy model TIMER to project the demand for fuelwood and charcoal for different socio-economic pathways for urban and rural populations, globally, and for four tropical regions (Central America, South America, Africa and Indonesia. Second, we assess whether the biomass demands for each scenario can be met with current and projected forest biomass estimated with remote sensing and modeled Net Primary Productivity (NPP using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS. Currently one third of residential energy use is based on traditional bioenergy, including charcoal. Globally, biomass needs by urban households by 2100 under the most sustainable scenario, SSP1, are of 14.4 mi ton biomass for charcoal plus 17.1 mi ton biomass for fuelwood (31.5 mi ton biomass in total. Under SSP3, the least sustainable scenario, we project a need of 205 mi tons biomass for charcoal plus 243.8 mi ton biomass for fuelwood by 2100 (total of 450 mi ton biomass. Africa and South America contribute the most for this biomass demand, however, all areas are able to meet the demand. We find that the future of the charcoal sector is not dire. Charcoal represents a small fraction of the energy requirements, but its biomass demands are disproportionate and in some regions require a large fraction of forest. This could be because of large growing populations moving to urban areas

  10. Resource Limitations, the Demand for Education and Economic Growth--A Macroeconomic View.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stam, Jerome M.

    To develop a theoretical framework for explaining the observed change in demand for human skill and knowledge that occurs with economic growth, a macroeconomic analysis was made of economic variables which are influenced by political, social, and cultural factors. In the three-dimensional framework, total output (Y) of all final goods and services…

  11. Our energy future is not set in stone. How can the demand for oil and gas in 2035 be met?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charlez, Philippe A.

    2014-01-01

    If technology is an undeniable catalyst for progress, then energy is its inevitable basic food. It is no coincidence that since the industrial revolution, economic growth has been fuelled first by coal, then by oil and gas. Although energy intensity reserves are still sizeable in emerging economies and the technological catalyst can partially dematerialise growth, it is unrealistic to separate growth from its basic food. And, even if the 'fossil energies share' (oil/gas/coal) will lose a few percent to nuclear and renewable energies over the next decades, all the indicators point to a world mix in which the fossil energy share will still top 75% by 2035. Driven by growth in emerging countries, the demand for oil and gas will continue to grow steadily. Even if there are enough oil and gas reserves to see us through the next three decades, will the industry be able to exploit and produce new resources that are increasingly complex to develop at a sufficient rate and which are often located in politically unstable countries? Not to mention the added challenge of the growing numbers of stakeholders who are increasingly insistent on industrial safety, environment and societal issues? In particular, will non-conventional resources, whose production growth could defer the oil and gas peaks by several decades, be able to withstand political and environmental lobbies? The evolution of oil and gas landscape over the past few years reveals a disturbing increase in the time required to develop large new fields and an accelerated decline of the production base due to the ageing of most of the mature-field facilities. This book aims to analyze all the critical factors (technical, political, economic, social and human) that could potentially accelerate or delay the maintenance and redevelopment of mature producing fields as well as the discovery and development of new conventional and unconventional resources. Insofar as in 2035, oil and gas still account for more than half of

  12. Future supply and demand of certain strategic metal imports in South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dudas, J.S.J.

    1984-01-01

    While South Africa is richly endowed with minerals it is unfortunately almost wholly dependent on external markets for certain metals. Some of the most strategic metals are molybdenum, tungsten, cobalt and aluminium - essential in the steel, petrochemical and defense industries. The objective of this study is to investigate the probable future dependence of South Africa on its four most strategic metal imports. The project covers the uses of the metals locally, historical trends of supply and demand and a forecast of consumption for the next decade. Alternatives and substitutes for the metals as well as the possibility of reclamation after use are also considered. Existing local deposits and their potential economic viability were investigated to establish the possibility of extraction and processing in future years to enable South Africa to decrease it import dependence on these strategic metals

  13. Inclusive Growth and Market Economies are the Future in MENA ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Inclusive Growth and Market Economies are the Future in MENA ... and economic growth, jobs for youth and the development of the private sector. ... fundamental re-assessment of the role of the state in economic development ," an IDRC official ... Along with continuing to provide support to local partners, IDRC will carry out ...

  14. The Potential for Snow to Supply Human Water Demand in the Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Singh, Deepti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2015-01-01

    Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of approx. 2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of more than 300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

  15. Estimates of future demand for uranium and nuclear fuel cycle services

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krymm, R; Woite, G [International Atomic Energy Agency, Division of Nuclear Power and Reactors, Economic Studies Section, Vienna (Austria)

    1976-07-01

    As a review of forecasts made over the last few years amply demonstrates, projections of nuclear power capacity on a country, regional or world basis are subject to uncertainties. It summarizes the evolution of estimates made in the recent past, should provide a sobering reminder of the advisability of relying on ranges rather than on single figures. Although they are derived from a relatively narrow range of assumptions for nuclear power capacity, the alternative estimates of demands for uranium and nuclear-fuel-cycle services differ by about 50%. If plausible variations in breeder penetration, load factors, tails assays and fuel performance were taken into account, a ratio of 2 between maximum and minimum possible demands for the 2000 could easily be approached. Thus, for instance, a 15% (instead of 5%) breeder penetration by the year 2000 would decrease annual natural uranium demand by about 10%, a drop of load factor from 0.7 to 0.6 would drop the demand by another 10%, a decrease in tail assay from 0.25% to 0.2% would drop the demand by 8%. These momentous uncertainties, characteristic of medium- and long-term demand projections, offer a sharp contrast to the inflexibility of short-term requirements. Once a nuclear plant is ordered, the demand for the fuel services required for its core and for its replacement loadings is practically fixed (subject to minor trade-offs) and it can only be delayed in time by accepting exceedingly heavy additional costs. The demand for uranium can be characterized as being uncertain in the future and inelastic in the present. It faces sources of supply which, with the exception of fabrication and conversion facilities, are characterized by long planning times, lengthy prospecting and construction times, and above all by heavy capital investments. This combination offers an almost ideal framework for instability and wild price fluctuations if consumers and suppliers operate independently seeking temporary guidance in their

  16. Estimates of future demand for uranium and nuclear fuel cycle services

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krymm, R.; Woite, G.

    1976-01-01

    As a review of forecasts made over the last few years amply demonstrates, projections of nuclear power capacity on a country, regional or world basis are subject to uncertainties. It summarizes the evolution of estimates made in the recent past, should provide a sobering reminder of the advisability of relying on ranges rather than on single figures. Although they are derived from a relatively narrow range of assumptions for nuclear power capacity, the alternative estimates of demands for uranium and nuclear-fuel-cycle services differ by about 50%. If plausible variations in breeder penetration, load factors, tails assays and fuel performance were taken into account, a ratio of 2 between maximum and minimum possible demands for the 2000 could easily be approached. Thus, for instance, a 15% (instead of 5%) breeder penetration by the year 2000 would decrease annual natural uranium demand by about 10%, a drop of load factor from 0.7 to 0.6 would drop the demand by another 10%, a decrease in tail assay from 0.25% to 0.2% would drop the demand by 8%. These momentous uncertainties, characteristic of medium- and long-term demand projections, offer a sharp contrast to the inflexibility of short-term requirements. Once a nuclear plant is ordered, the demand for the fuel services required for its core and for its replacement loadings is practically fixed (subject to minor trade-offs) and it can only be delayed in time by accepting exceedingly heavy additional costs. The demand for uranium can be characterized as being uncertain in the future and inelastic in the present. It faces sources of supply which, with the exception of fabrication and conversion facilities, are characterized by long planning times, lengthy prospecting and construction times, and above all by heavy capital investments. This combination offers an almost ideal framework for instability and wild price fluctuations if consumers and suppliers operate independently seeking temporary guidance in their

  17. Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitz, Christoph; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Gerten, Dieter; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Biewald, Anne; Popp, Alexander

    2013-06-01

    An increasing demand for agricultural goods affects the pressure on global water resources over the coming decades. In order to quantify these effects, we have developed a new agroeconomic water scarcity indicator, considering explicitly economic processes in the agricultural system. The indicator is based on the water shadow price generated by an economic land use model linked to a global vegetation-hydrology model. Irrigation efficiency is implemented as a dynamic input depending on the level of economic development. We are able to simulate the heterogeneous distribution of water supply and agricultural water demand for irrigation through the spatially explicit representation of agricultural production. This allows in identifying regional hot spots of blue water scarcity and explicit shadow prices for water. We generate scenarios based on moderate policies regarding future trade liberalization and the control of livestock-based consumption, dependent on different population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections. Results indicate increased water scarcity in the future, especially in South Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa. In general, water shadow prices decrease with increasing liberalization, foremost in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Policies to reduce livestock consumption in developed countries not only lower the domestic pressure on water but also alleviate water scarcity to a large extent in developing countries. It is shown that one of the two policy options would be insufficient for most regions to retain water scarcity in 2045 on levels comparable to 2005.

  18. Clean coal technology choices relating to the future supply and demand of electricity in Southern Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lennon, S.J.

    1997-01-01

    The finalization of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has catalysed a high degree of debate and interest in the future of coal-fired power generation. Fossil fuel combustion is responsible for a significant percentage of pollutants emitted globally, and coal will continue to play a major role in the energy portfolios of many countries. This is particularly true for developing countries. This fact has resulted in a major focus on technologies which improve the efficiency of coal combustion and conversion to electrical energy, as well as technologies which directly of indirectly reduce overall emissions. The issues around clean coal technologies (CCT) and their evolution, development and uptake in both developed and developing countries are complex. This paper addresses these issues in a Southern African context, viewed from the policy perspective of developing countries and presented in a framework of electricity supply and demand considerations in the region. The principal climate change policy elements proposed for South Africa are presented in the context of the current electricity supply and demand situation in the region. These are presented in the context of Eskom's Integrated Electricity Planning (IEP) process including the environmental considerations inherent in decision-making processes. The potential future of the CCT, barriers to their introduction and potential measures to facilitate their accelerated adoption are discussed. (author). 4 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

  19. Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2014-05-01

    Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

  20. Recent rapid increases in the demand for city gas in manufacturing industries and future developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusano, Shigero

    1992-01-01

    City gas companies in Japan are experiencing an expansion in demand for gas in all manufacturing industries. The reason for this is, first and foremost, external, in that the first and second oil crises and the recent Gulf War have placed the oil market in a state of flux. That is to say, supply and demand in the oil products market is unstable while the stability of city gas, which is the main raw material for LNG, is being highly appraised. Another external reason is related to a subject much in the news recently the world over - the environment. City gas is highly regarded for its minimum environmental impact. Domestic reasons for the expansion include the fact that with the increase in use of city gas in manufacturing industries, the end user is beginning to recognize the various special qualities that city gas possesses. The expansion is also due in part to the unrelenting efforts in sales by the gas producers themselves. This report focuses on the expansion in demand in city gas over the past ten years from the point of view of Tokyo Gas as a producer that has been party to the increased sales of city gas in manufacturing industries for over 10 years giving views on the reasons for the increase. Graphic reports of the actual situation of the industry at meetings such as these are rare and therefore although this is slightly different from the main theme, I would like to proceed with the debate in the hope that this will be beneficial in the expansion of future gas demand in countries all over the world

  1. A speculation on the debate about the future electricity demand in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Chae Young; Moon, Kee Hwan

    2005-01-01

    Since 1991, Korean government established the Long term Power Development Plan(LPDP) to secure a stable electricity supply. With the introduction of market mechanism into electricity supply sector, that plan has been changed into the Basic Plan of the Electricity supply and demand(BPE), which plays a role as a nonbinding guideline or a reference rather than the implementation plan. The BPE still has its importance as a tool providing market participants with appropriate information of future electricity market. According to the second BPE, released at the end of 2004, electricity demand is projected to grow at 2.5% per annum and reach 416.5TWh in 2017 from 293.6TWh in 2003. Based on the projected demand, power expansion plan provided by utilities has established. In the process of formulating the BPE, there were hot debates on the excess capacity margins for certain period of planning time. Some people, especially from environmental groups maintained that many Koreans were wasteful with electricity so that stronger policy for curbing the electricity consumption should be introduced rather than commissioning of additional power plants. They referred to relatively high number of the electricity intensity of Korea as the grounds of their argument. However, electricity intensity in a region or a country is influenced by various factors and higher intensity does not necessarily mean more wasteful consumption of electricity. We have compared various aspects of electricity demand in Korea with other countries to speculate the argument that electricity consumption in Korea is too high. We have also discussed electricity projection in the BPE

  2. Human capital demand in Brazil: The effects of adjustment cost, economic growth, exports and imports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joilson Dias

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to learn about the effects of the adjustment costs, economic growth, imports and exports on human capital labor demand. The dynamic model proposed by Sargent (1978 was adjusted to consider three types of human capital: (a one with fundamental education (1–8 years of schooling; (b one with secondary education level (9–11 years of education; (c and one with tertiary education level (12 years or more of schooling. Using state level panel data, the dynamic econometrics estimates showed the following results: (i the labor market adjustment costs are very higher; (ii the adjustment cost for the human capital with intermediary education level is the highest one compared to the others; (iii the states’ economic growth favor those with superior education; (iv the imports seems to favor the demand for those with intermediate education levels; (v the degree of openness does show some weak effect on the demand for human capitals with intermediate education. In sum, the growing demand for human capital with some superior education seems to be more associated to its lower adjustment cost and economic growth; the non-significance of real wage elasticity and high adjustment cost seems to indicate that the human capital with intermediate knowledge is in short supply; hence, economic education policy that increases supply of such human capital are in need.

  3. Future demand in electrical power and meeting this demand, in particular with the aid of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-07-01

    As a part of the research program in question, the study deals with meeting the electrical power demand in the FRG until the year 2000 in the best possible way with regard to costs, and evaluating the long-term technical, ecological, and economical effects resulting thereof. With the aid of a model, the construction of additional plants and the use of the FRG's power plant network, always applying economical criteria, are investigated while allowing for adequate assurance of supply. It becomes obvious that the power plants and fuels available influence a 25-year planning period. In the year 2000, nuclear energy will play a dominating role in meeting the demand, the conventional thermal power plants will be used more for coping with the above-average medium laods, while peak loads will be met, above all, by pump storage stations. (UA) [de

  4. An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jianliang; Feng, Lianyong; Tverberg, Gail E.

    2013-01-01

    Many people believe that China's economic growth can continue almost indefinitely. For a manufacturing-based economy such as China's to continue to grow, it needs an adequate supply of inexpensive energy. To date, this energy growth has primarily come from coal, but China's indigenous coal supplies are now falling short of the amount needed to support this growth. In this situation, the status of China's future coal supply will be very important for China's future economic development. Our analysis shows that China's ultimate recoverable coal reserves equal 223.6×10 9 MT, and its production will peak between 2025 and 2030, with peak production of approximately 3.9×10 9 MT. The extent to which China can import coal in the future is uncertain. With rising coal demand, this combination is likely to create a significant challenge to China's future economic development. - Highlights: ► We analyze an issue of prime importance for the future of China's economy. ► The decline in coal supply will present a challenge to China's economic growth. ► Rising coal price will also have an adverse impact on economic growth

  5. Ant Larval Demand Reduces Aphid Colony Growth Rates in an Ant-Aphid Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James M. Cook

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Ants often form mutualistic interactions with aphids, soliciting honeydew in return for protective services. Under certain circumstances, however, ants will prey upon aphids. In addition, in the presence of ants aphids may increase the quantity or quality of honeydew produced, which is costly. Through these mechanisms, ant attendance can reduce aphid colony growth rates. However, it is unknown whether demand from within the ant colony can affect the ant-aphid interaction. In a factorial experiment, we tested whether the presence of larvae in Lasius niger ant colonies affected the growth rate of Aphis fabae colonies. Other explanatory variables tested were the origin of ant colonies (two separate colonies were used and previous diet (sugar only or sugar and protein. We found that the presence of larvae in the ant colony significantly reduced the growth rate of aphid colonies. Previous diet and colony origin did not affect aphid colony growth rates. Our results suggest that ant colonies balance the flow of two separate resources from aphid colonies- renewable sugars or a protein-rich meal, depending on demand from ant larvae within the nest. Aphid payoffs from the ant-aphid interaction may change on a seasonal basis, as the demand from larvae within the ant colony waxes and wanes.

  6. Decarbonising the energy intensive basic materials industry through electrification – Implications for future EU electricity demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lechtenböhmer, Stefan; Nilsson, Lars J.; Åhman, Max; Schneider, Clemens

    2016-01-01

    The need for deep decarbonisation in the energy intensive basic materials industry is increasingly recognised. In light of the vast future potential for renewable electricity the implications of electrifying the production of basic materials in the European Union is explored in a what-if thought-experiment. Production of steel, cement, glass, lime, petrochemicals, chlorine and ammonia required 125 TW-hours of electricity and 851 TW-hours of fossil fuels for energetic purposes and 671 TW-hours of fossil fuels as feedstock in 2010. The resulting carbon dioxide emissions were equivalent to 9% of total greenhouse gas emissions in EU28. A complete shift of the energy demand as well as the resource base of feedstocks to electricity would result in an electricity demand of 1713 TW-hours about 1200 TW-hours of which would be for producing hydrogen and hydrocarbons for feedstock and energy purposes. With increased material efficiency and some share of bio-based materials and biofuels the electricity demand can be much lower. Our analysis suggest that electrification of basic materials production is technically possible but could have major implications on how the industry and the electric systems interact. It also entails substantial changes in relative prices for electricity and hydrocarbon fuels. - Highlights: • Energy intensive basic materials industry has a high share in EU greenhouse gas emissions. • Decarbonising these industries is very important, but still relatively unexplored. • Electrification is possible regarding renewable energy resources and technologies. • Combination with energy and materials efficiency, biofuels and CCS is crucial. • Electrification needs very high amounts of electricity and strong policies.

  7. Future trends in the supply and demand for radiation oncology physicists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Michael D; Thornewill, Judah; Esterhay, Robert J

    2010-04-12

    Significant controversy surrounds the 2012 / 2014 decision announced by the Trustees of the American Board of Radiology (ABR) in October of 2007. According to the ABR, only medical physicists who are graduates of a Commission on Accreditation of Medical Physics Education Programs, Inc. (CAMPEP) accredited academic or residency program will be admitted for examination in the years 2012 and 2013. Only graduates of a CAMPEP accredited residency program will be admitted for examination beginning in the year 2014. An essential question facing the radiation oncology physics community is an estimation of supply and demand for medical physicists through the year 2020. To that end, a Demand & Supply dynamic model was created using STELLA software. Inputs into the model include: a) projected new cancer incidence and prevalence 1990-2020; b) AAPM member ages and retirement projections 1990-2020; c) number of ABR physics diplomates 1990-2009; d) number of patients per Qualified Medical Physicist from Abt Reports I (1995), II (2002) and III (2008); e) non-CAMPEP physicists trained 1990-2009 and projected through 2014; f) CAMPEP physicists trained 1993-2008 and projected through 2014; and g) working Qualified Medical Physicists in radiation oncology in the United States (1990-2007). The model indicates that the number of qualified medical physicists working in radiation oncology required to meet demand in 2020 will be 150-175 per year. Because there is some elasticity in the workforce, a portion of the work effort might be assumed by practicing medical physicists. However, the minimum number of new radiation oncology physicists (ROPs) required for the health of the profession is estimated to be 125 per year in 2020. The radiation oncology physics community should plan to build residency programs to support these numbers for the future of the profession.

  8. Demands For Solar Electricity From The BRICS Countries In The Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Y.

    2015-12-01

    BRICS countries are presently among the leading the economic powers globally, but their increasing demands for energy and sustainable future requires renewed technical progress on implementation of renewable energy (e.g., solar energy) and a sustainable solution rather than extracting finite natural resources. BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) face both social and environmental pressures as their economy keeps growing. The rapid development of technology in BRICS inevitably altered their culture and behavior, as reflected by education, gender equality, health, and other demographic/socio-economic indicators. These changes coupled with land use/land cover change have altered ecosystem services, as reflected by NEE (Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2) and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). Global climatic changes also drives the demand for sustainable energy. With a focus on solar energy, we analyzed time series of energy consuming behaviors, government policies, and the ecosystem services. Structural equation modeling was applied to confirm the relationships among societal transition, ecosystem services, and climate change. We compared the energy consumption patterns for the five countries and forecasted the changes through 2025. We found that government policies significantly influenced energy consumption behaviors for BRICS and that solar energy usage would continue to increase to 2025 and beyond.

  9. Impact of future price increase on ordering policies for deteriorating items under quadratic demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nita H. Shah

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available When a supplier announces a price increase at a certain time in the future, for each retailer it is important to choose whether to purchase supplementary stock to take benefit of the current lower price or procure at a new price. This article focuses on the possible effects of price increase on a retailer’s replenishment strategy for constant deterioration of items. Here, quadratic demand is debated; which is appropriate for the products for which demand increases initially and subsequently it starts to decrease with the new version of the substitute. We discuss two scenarios in this study: (I when the special order time coincides with the retailer’s replenishment time and (II when the special order time falls during the retailer’s sales period. We determine an optimal ordering policy for each case by maximizing total cost savings between special and regular orders during the depletion time of the special order quantity. Scenarios are established and illustrated with numerical examples. Through, sensitivity analysis important inventory parameters are classified. Graphical results, in two and three dimensions, are exhibited with supervisory decision.

  10. Transformative optimisation of agricultural land use to meet future food demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lian Pin Koh

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The human population is expected to reach ∼9 billion by 2050. The ensuing demands for water, food and energy would intensify land-use conflicts and exacerbate environmental impacts. Therefore we urgently need to reconcile our growing consumptive needs with environmental protection. Here, we explore the potential of a land-use optimisation strategy to increase global agricultural production on two major groups of crops: cereals and oilseeds. We implemented a spatially-explicit computer simulation model across 173 countries based on the following algorithm: on any cropland, always produce the most productive crop given all other crops currently being produced locally and the site-specific biophysical, economic and technological constraints to production. Globally, this strategy resulted in net increases in annual production of cereal and oilseed crops from 1.9 billion to 2.9 billion tons (46%, and from 427 million to 481 million tons (13%, respectively, without any change in total land area harvested for cereals or oilseeds. This thought experiment demonstrates that, in theory, more optimal use of existing farmlands could help meet future crop demands. In practice there might be cultural, social and institutional barriers that limit the full realisation of this theoretical potential. Nevertheless, these constraints have to be weighed against the consequences of not producing enough food, particularly in regions already facing food shortages.

  11. The Current Utilization and Future Demand of Radiopharmaceutical and Radioisotopes in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibrahim Ijang; Zakaria Ibrahim; Bohari Yaacob

    2013-01-01

    Radioisotope and pharmaceutical kits play an important role in nuclear medicine for non-invasive diagnosis and treatment of various cancers and cardiovascular disease. Our aim was to survey the current utilization and future demand of radiopharmaceuticals and radioisotopes in Malaysia. The survey methodology technique was done using questionnaire administration modes. The survey was done for four month duration from government hospitals that have nuclear medicine department. The most frequent pharmaceutical kits used in hospitals were Methylene Diphosphonic acid (MDP) for bone imaging and Diethylene Triamine Pantacetic acid (DTPA). Similarly radioisotopes widely used were Tc-99m and Iodine 131.Therefore if produced of Tc-99m by Nuclear Malaysia can improved in term of high quality products, Nuclear Malaysia could be the sole supplier of this product to hospitals in Malaysia. Similarly pharmaceutical kits especially MDP and DTPA, Nuclear Malaysia has the expertise and knowledge to supply these kits to the hospital. (author)

  12. The role of technology, organisation, and demand in growth and income distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Tommaso Ciarli; Andre' Lorentz; Maria Savona; Marco Valente

    2012-01-01

    The paper proposes a model that explains cross-country growth divergences over time for different aspects of structural change. The model formalises the links between production technology, firm organisation (functional composition of employment) on the supply side and the endogenous evolution of income distribution and consumption patterns on the demand side. Wage distribution is the main channel between the organisation of firms and consumption patterns, and firm selection is the main trigg...

  13. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ou Xunmin, E-mail: oxm07@mails.tsinghua.edu.c [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang Xiliang, E-mail: zhang_xl@tsinghua.edu.c [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Chang Shiyan [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2010-08-15

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

  14. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport. Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ou, Xunmin [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Xiliang; Chang, Shiyan [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2010-08-15

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology. (author)

  15. Benefits of Demand Side Response in Providing Frequency Response Service in the Future GB Power System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei eTeng

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The demand for ancillary service is expected to increase significantly in the future GB electricity system due to high penetration of wind. In particular, the need for frequency response, required to deal with sudden frequency drops following a loss of generator, will increase because of the limited inertia capability of wind plants. This paper quantifies the requirements for primary frequency response and analyses the benefits of frequency response provision from DSR. The results show dramatic changes in frequency response requirements driven by high penetration of wind. Case studies carried out by using an advanced stochastic generation scheduling model suggest that the provision of frequency response from DSR could greatly reduce the system operation cost, wind curtailment and carbon emissions in the future GB system characterised by high penetration of wind. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that the benefit of DSR shows significant diurnal and seasonal variation, whereas an even more rapid (instant delivery of frequency response from DSR could provide significant additional value. Our studies also indicate that the competing technologies to DSR, namely battery storage and more flexible generation could potentially reduce its value by up to 35%, still leaving significant room to deploy DSR as frequency response provider.

  16. Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó.; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies. - Highlights: •A private car energy model is built using aggregated available data. •Andorra's current car fleet energy consumption is estimated and forecasted to 2050. •Potential energy savings have been estimated using sensitivity and scenario analysis.

  17. The past, present, and future of U.S. utility demand-side management programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eto, J.

    1996-12-01

    Demand-side management or DSM refers to active efforts by electric and gas utilities to modify customers' energy use patterns. The experience in the US shows that utilities, when provided with appropriate incentives, can provide a powerful stimulus to energy efficiency in the private sector. This paper describes the range and history of DSM programs offered by US electric utilities, with a focus on the political, economic, and regulatory events that have shaped their evolution. It also describes the changes these programs are undergoing as a result of US electricity industry restructuring. DSM programs began modestly in the 1970s in response to growing concerns about dependence on foreign sources of oil and environmental consequences of electricity generation, especially nuclear power. The foundation for the unique US partnership between government and utility interests can be traced first to the private-ownership structure of the vertically integrated electricity industry and second to the monopoly franchise granted by state regulators. Electricity industry restructuring calls into question both of these basic conditions, and thus the future of utility DSM programs for the public interest. Future policies guiding ratepayer-funded energy-efficiency DSM programs will need to pay close attention to the specific market objectives of the programs and to the balance between public and private interests

  18. JSC Advanced Curation: Research and Development for Current Collections and Future Sample Return Mission Demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fries, M. D.; Allen, C. C.; Calaway, M. J.; Evans, C. A.; Stansbery, E. K.

    2015-01-01

    Curation of NASA's astromaterials sample collections is a demanding and evolving activity that supports valuable science from NASA missions for generations, long after the samples are returned to Earth. For example, NASA continues to loan hundreds of Apollo program samples to investigators every year and those samples are often analyzed using instruments that did not exist at the time of the Apollo missions themselves. The samples are curated in a manner that minimizes overall contamination, enabling clean, new high-sensitivity measurements and new science results over 40 years after their return to Earth. As our exploration of the Solar System progresses, upcoming and future NASA sample return missions will return new samples with stringent contamination control, sample environmental control, and Planetary Protection requirements. Therefore, an essential element of a healthy astromaterials curation program is a research and development (R&D) effort that characterizes and employs new technologies to maintain current collections and enable new missions - an Advanced Curation effort. JSC's Astromaterials Acquisition & Curation Office is continually performing Advanced Curation research, identifying and defining knowledge gaps about research, development, and validation/verification topics that are critical to support current and future NASA astromaterials sample collections. The following are highlighted knowledge gaps and research opportunities.

  19. The past, present, and future of U.S. utility demand-side management programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eto, J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States). Environmental Energy Technologies Div.

    1996-12-01

    Demand-side management or DSM refers to active efforts by electric and gas utilities to modify customers` energy use patterns. The experience in the US shows that utilities, when provided with appropriate incentives, can provide a powerful stimulus to energy efficiency in the private sector. This paper describes the range and history of DSM programs offered by US electric utilities, with a focus on the political, economic, and regulatory events that have shaped their evolution. It also describes the changes these programs are undergoing as a result of US electricity industry restructuring. DSM programs began modestly in the 1970s in response to growing concerns about dependence on foreign sources of oil and environmental consequences of electricity generation, especially nuclear power. The foundation for the unique US partnership between government and utility interests can be traced first to the private-ownership structure of the vertically integrated electricity industry and second to the monopoly franchise granted by state regulators. Electricity industry restructuring calls into question both of these basic conditions, and thus the future of utility DSM programs for the public interest. Future policies guiding ratepayer-funded energy-efficiency DSM programs will need to pay close attention to the specific market objectives of the programs and to the balance between public and private interests.

  20. Norwegian residential electricity demand - a microeconomic assessment of the growth from 1976 to 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halvorsen, B.; Larsen, B.M.

    2001-01-01

    The Norwegian residential electricity consumption increased by an average of 3% annually during the period 1976-1993. Political signals indicate that the growth in Norwegian residential energy consumption should be reduced, and that it may be necessary to increase energy taxes. Based on data for the sample of households from the annual consumer expenditure survey, we study factors that are of importance explaining the growth in Norwegian residential electricity demand during this period. Nearly half of the growth is due to an increase in the number of households, while the rest reflects an increase in average consumption per household. The increase in average consumption per household is due to an increasing number of households possessing electric household appliances such as dryers and dishwashers, an increase in real disposable household income and in the floor space of dwellings. (author)

  1. Future Protein Supply and Demand: Strategies and Factors Influencing a Sustainable Equilibrium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maeve Henchion

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A growing global population, combined with factors such as changing socio-demographics, will place increased pressure on the world’s resources to provide not only more but also different types of food. Increased demand for animal-based protein in particular is expected to have a negative environmental impact, generating greenhouse gas emissions, requiring more water and more land. Addressing this “perfect storm” will necessitate more sustainable production of existing sources of protein as well as alternative sources for direct human consumption. This paper outlines some potential demand scenarios and provides an overview of selected existing and novel protein sources in terms of their potential to sustainably deliver protein for the future, considering drivers and challenges relating to nutritional, environmental, and technological and market/consumer domains. It concludes that different factors influence the potential of existing and novel sources. Existing protein sources are primarily hindered by their negative environmental impacts with some concerns around health. However, they offer social and economic benefits, and have a high level of consumer acceptance. Furthermore, recent research emphasizes the role of livestock as part of the solution to greenhouse gas emissions, and indicates that animal-based protein has an important role as part of a sustainable diet and as a contributor to food security. Novel proteins require the development of new value chains, and attention to issues such as production costs, food safety, scalability and consumer acceptance. Furthermore, positive environmental impacts cannot be assumed with novel protein sources and care must be taken to ensure that comparisons between novel and existing protein sources are valid. Greater alignment of political forces, and the involvement of wider stakeholders in a governance role, as well as development/commercialization role, is required to address both sources of

  2. Future Protein Supply and Demand: Strategies and Factors Influencing a Sustainable Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henchion, Maeve; Hayes, Maria; Mullen, Anne Maria; Fenelon, Mark; Tiwari, Brijesh

    2017-01-01

    A growing global population, combined with factors such as changing socio-demographics, will place increased pressure on the world’s resources to provide not only more but also different types of food. Increased demand for animal-based protein in particular is expected to have a negative environmental impact, generating greenhouse gas emissions, requiring more water and more land. Addressing this “perfect storm” will necessitate more sustainable production of existing sources of protein as well as alternative sources for direct human consumption. This paper outlines some potential demand scenarios and provides an overview of selected existing and novel protein sources in terms of their potential to sustainably deliver protein for the future, considering drivers and challenges relating to nutritional, environmental, and technological and market/consumer domains. It concludes that different factors influence the potential of existing and novel sources. Existing protein sources are primarily hindered by their negative environmental impacts with some concerns around health. However, they offer social and economic benefits, and have a high level of consumer acceptance. Furthermore, recent research emphasizes the role of livestock as part of the solution to greenhouse gas emissions, and indicates that animal-based protein has an important role as part of a sustainable diet and as a contributor to food security. Novel proteins require the development of new value chains, and attention to issues such as production costs, food safety, scalability and consumer acceptance. Furthermore, positive environmental impacts cannot be assumed with novel protein sources and care must be taken to ensure that comparisons between novel and existing protein sources are valid. Greater alignment of political forces, and the involvement of wider stakeholders in a governance role, as well as development/commercialization role, is required to address both sources of protein and ensure

  3. Economic concepts to address future water supply-demand imbalances in Iran, Morocco and Saudi Arabia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Immerzeel, W.; Droogers, P.

    2013-01-01

    In Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, renewable groundwater and surface water supply are limited while demand for water is growing rapidly. Climate change is expected to increase water demand even further. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the water supply–demand imbalances in

  4. U.S., Canadian pipelines producers lining up to meet Mexican gas demand growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koen, A.D.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports on prospects for continued strong growth in Mexican demand for natural gas imports that have U.S. and Canadian producers and pipelines queueing up to serve expected demand. In 1991, more than 25 U.S. companies exported a combined 61.7 bcf of gas into Mexico, an increase of more than 390% from 1990's total of 15.7 bcf. According to the Department of Energy Office of Fuels Programs (OFP), about 27.5 bcf of gas left the U.S. for Mexico in fourth quarter 1991 alone, an average 299 MMcfd. DOE has granted short term authorization to more than 65 countries to export gas into Mexico. Another 25 companies have short term export applications pending

  5. The future of the photovoltaic market (demand side/supply side)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zahedi, A.

    1998-01-01

    At present the main PV application market sectors are communications, leisure, boating, solar home systems, and water pumping. It is predicted that in the future, the largest photovoltaic market segments will be solar home photovoltaic systems, grid-connected small-scale photovoltaic systems, grid-connected medium-to-large scale photovoltaic systems, the communications sector and in the electrification of remote and isolated areas. The main factors favoring photovoltaic technology in remote and isolated areas result from: the high costs of conventional energy sources in remote locations; the loss of a scale-economy effect, which means specific costs of small photovoltaic systems are not much higher than those of larger photovoltaic systems; price of fuel, fuel transportation and spare part supplies. The major factors inhibiting the photovoltaic technology include high initial costs, lack of skilled man power, lack of good quality data and social acceptance. A roof top mounted photovoltaic system is one type of PV system which has attracted lots of interest among the people of north America and Europe. The generation of electricity by this system is attractive because: generation is on-site. This results in reduction of transmission costs and transmission losses; the cost of roofing tiles can be eliminated by using mounted PV systems instead; there is no need for additional land for power generation; visual impacts are limited. The objective of this paper is to review the development of the photovoltaic market in the recent 10 year period and discuss the future markets for this technology with respect to supply and demand

  6. China's refiners face massive overhaul, expansion to meet demand growth, new crude slate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    China's refining industry has embarked on a massive overhaul and expansion to accommodate soaring domestic growth in refined products demand. Currently that growth in demand is being met by increasing imports of refined products, in recent years attaining triple digit growth rates and squeezing direly needed foreign exchange. The focus is on adding refining capacity of about 1.4 million b/d to the current capacity of about 3.2 million b/d by 2000. Priority for increasing capacity is being given to expanding existing refineries and participating in foreign joint venture grassroots refineries along China's booming coastal regions as well as hiking output. A major challenge for China's refineries is that country's reentry into the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), recently signed in Morocco by more than 100 nations. The accompanying reduction of tariffs on imported refined products will make it more difficult for China's marginal refineries to compete in the domestic market. The paper discusses imports and exports, LPG outlook, refining capacity, revamps needed, third party processing, China's first joint venture refinery, industry plans, and GATT challenges

  7. Alcohol Demand, Future Orientation, and Craving Mediate the Relation Between Depressive and Stress Symptoms and Alcohol Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soltis, Kathryn E; McDevitt-Murphy, Meghan E; Murphy, James G

    2017-06-01

    Elevated depression and stress have been linked to greater levels of alcohol problems among young adults even after taking into account drinking level. This study attempts to elucidate variables that might mediate the relation between symptoms of depression and stress and alcohol problems, including alcohol demand, future time orientation, and craving. Participants were 393 undergraduates (60.8% female, 78.9% White/Caucasian) who reported at least 2 binge-drinking episodes (4/5+ drinks for women/men, respectively) in the previous month. Participants completed self-report measures of stress and depression, alcohol demand, future time orientation, craving, and alcohol problems. In separate mediation models that accounted for gender, race, and weekly alcohol consumption, future orientation and craving significantly mediated the relation between depressive symptoms and alcohol problems. Alcohol demand, future orientation, and craving significantly mediated the relation between stress symptoms and alcohol problems. Heavy-drinking young adults who experience stress or depression are likely to experience alcohol problems, and this is due in part to elevations in craving and alcohol demand, and less sensitivity to future outcomes. Interventions targeting alcohol misuse in young adults with elevated levels of depression and stress should attempt to increase future orientation and decrease craving and alcohol reward value. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  8. An Assessment of Future Demands for and Benefits of Public Transit Srevices in Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, F.

    2004-04-29

    This report documents results from a study carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee at Knoxville for the Office of Public Transportation, Tennessee Department of Transportation. The study team was tasked with developing a process and a supporting methodology for estimating the benefits accruing to the State from the operation of state supported public transit services. The team was also tasked with developing forecasts of the future demands for these State supported transit services at five year intervals through the year 2020, broken down where possible to the local transit system level. Separate ridership benefits and forecasts were also requested for the State's urban and rural transit operations. Tennessee's public transit systems are subsidized to a degree by taxpayers. It is therefore in the public interest that assessments of the benefits of such systems be carried out at intervals, to determine how they are contributing to the well-being of the state's population. For some population groups within the State of Tennessee these transit services have become essential as a means of gaining access to workplaces and job training centers, to educational and health care facilities, as well as to shops, social functions and recreational sites.

  9. An Assessment of Future Demands for and Benefits of Public Transit Services in Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, F.

    2003-06-10

    This report documents results from a study carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee at Knoxville for the Office of Public Transportation, Tennessee Department of Transportation. The study team was tasked with developing a process and a supporting methodology for estimating the benefits accruing to the State from the operation of state supported public transit services. The team was also tasked with developing forecasts of the future demands for these State supported transit services at five year intervals through the year 2020, broken down where possible to the local transit system level. Separate ridership benefits and forecasts were also requested for the State's urban and rural transit operations. Tennessee's public transit systems are subsidized to a degree by taxpayers. It is therefore in the public interest that assessments of the benefits of such systems be carried out at intervals, to determine how they are contributing to the well-being of the state's population. For some population groups within the State of Tennessee these transit services have become essential as a means of gaining access to workplaces and job training centers, to educational and health care facilities, as well as to shops, social functions and recreational sites.

  10. Power plants 2020+. Power plant options for the future and the related demand for research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This short overview already demonstrates that in the foreseeable future all generation options - nuclear power, fossil-fired power plants and renewable sources of energy - will continue to be applied. If, however, due to climate protection targets, energy conversion processes are to be to switched to CO 2 -free or -low carbon energy sources, comprehensive research endeavours will be required in order to advance existing technology options and to adjust them to changing conditions. This paper is bound to recommend individual fields of research from the viewpoint of the VGB Scientific Advisory Board for the period 2020 and beyond. Firstly, the generation structure in the European high-voltage grid and its development until 2020 will be considered, then the research demand for - Hard coal- and lignite-fired power plants, - Renewables-based electricity generation (wind, solar energy) and - Nuclear-based electricity generation will be outlined briefly, listing the main technology issues to be answered by researchers in order to increase efficiency and to settle any ''loose ends''. Apart from generation technologies, the options for storing electrical energy will also be dealt with. These options can contribute to make the feed-in of renewables-based electricity more permanent and sustainable. (orig.)

  11. Rapid growth, maturity, current problems, future prospects of NAA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guinn, V.P.

    2000-01-01

    The early rapid growth, the attainment of maturity, current problems, and future prospects of NAA (neutron activation analysis) are discussed, each in reasonable detail. In particular, the nature and causes of its current problems are examined, and suggestions are presented for the solution of these problems. The author believes that vigorous action in suggested areas of concentration can reinvigorate the status of NAA as an important method of elemental analysis. (author)

  12. Investment guidelines based on future growth indicators / Christo Vorster

    OpenAIRE

    Vorster, Christo

    2008-01-01

    The stock market is cited to be one of the greatest tools ever invented for building wealth. The relative small size of the ideal portfolio, consisting of 10 to 12 shares, reiterates the fact that share selection is absolutely crucial to portfolio success and ultimately the creation of personal financial independence. The main objective of this study is to research, identify and develop investment guidelines based on possible future growth indicators of organisations listed on the JSE. ...

  13. Who will feed China in the 21st century ? income growth and food demand and supply in China

    OpenAIRE

    Fukase, Emiko; Martin, Will

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses resource-based cereal equivalent measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. Although demand for food calories is probably close to its peak level in China, the ongoing dietary shift to animal-based foods, induced by income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. Estimating the relationship between income gro...

  14. Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies.

  15. Energy efficiency, human behavior, and economic growth: Challenges to cutting energy demand to sustainable levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santarius, Tilman

    2015-03-01

    Increasing energy efficiency in households, transportation, industries, and services is an important strategy to reduce energy service demand to levels that allow the steep reduction of greenhouse gases, and a full fledged switch of energy systems to a renewable basis. Yet, technological efficiency improvements may generate so-called rebound effects, which may `eat up' parts of the technical savings potential. This article provides a comprehensive review of existing research on these effects, raises critiques, and points out open questions. It introduces micro-economic rebound effect and suggests extending consumer-side analysis to incorporate potential `psychological rebound effects.' It then discusses meso-economic rebound effects, i.e. producer-side and market-level rebounds, which so far have achieved little attention in the literature. Finally, the article critically reviews evidence for macro-economic rebound effects as energy efficiency-induced economic growth impacts. For all three categories, the article summarizes assessments of their potential quantitative scope, while pointing out remaining methodological weaknesses and open questions. As a rough "rule of thumb", in the long term and on gross average, only half the technical savings potential of across-the-board efficiency improvements may actually be achieved in the real world. Policies that aim at cutting energy service demand to sustainable levels are well advised to take due note of detrimental behavioral and economic growth impacts, and should foster policies and measures that can contain them.

  16. Energy efficiency, human behavior, and economic growth: Challenges to cutting energy demand to sustainable levels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santarius, Tilman, E-mail: tilman@santarius.de [Visiting Scholar, Institute of European Studies and Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720-3050 (United States)

    2015-03-30

    Increasing energy efficiency in households, transportation, industries, and services is an important strategy to reduce energy service demand to levels that allow the steep reduction of greenhouse gases, and a full fledged switch of energy systems to a renewable basis. Yet, technological efficiency improvements may generate so-called rebound effects, which may ‘eat up’ parts of the technical savings potential. This article provides a comprehensive review of existing research on these effects, raises critiques, and points out open questions. It introduces micro-economic rebound effect and suggests extending consumer-side analysis to incorporate potential ‘psychological rebound effects.’ It then discusses meso-economic rebound effects, i.e. producer-side and market-level rebounds, which so far have achieved little attention in the literature. Finally, the article critically reviews evidence for macro-economic rebound effects as energy efficiency-induced economic growth impacts. For all three categories, the article summarizes assessments of their potential quantitative scope, while pointing out remaining methodological weaknesses and open questions. As a rough “rule of thumb”, in the long term and on gross average, only half the technical savings potential of across-the-board efficiency improvements may actually be achieved in the real world. Policies that aim at cutting energy service demand to sustainable levels are well advised to take due note of detrimental behavioral and economic growth impacts, and should foster policies and measures that can contain them.

  17. European future natural gas demand and supply diversification: key issues for Central and Eastern Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller-Elschner, E.

    1996-01-01

    After the breakdown of the former Soviet Union and the COMECON the demarcation line between western Europe and central/eastern Europe has disappeared. The central and eastern European economies as a whole and their gas industries as well as the western European gas companies are preparing for the future enlarged market in creating the prerequisites to participate successfully in such a market and to seize the opportunities this market is offering. The framework for this future European Gas Market has to be created now. The European gas industries and gas markets are in transition and are in a process of reshaping, with the following challenges: (1) In Central and Eastern European countries: To complete the privatization and restructuring process from centrally-planned economies to market-oriented structures with deregulated prices, market-oriented tariff systems and new legal and regulatory frameworks. These are the essential prerequisites for an integration of the central and eastern European countries into a single European gas market and the basis for an effective and successful trans border gas co-operation between east and west. (2) In western European countries: To pursue nearly similar processes of restructuring which are underway: privatization by reducing state participation and influence in gas and energy companies, with the accent on liberalization and deregulation of market structures with fewer market entry barriers, and more competition by reducing the influence of state or private monopolies. Gas companies are undertaking cost-efficiency measures to be prepared to meet the requirements of more competitive market structures and also of a more advanced internationalized gas business. The fundamental rules on which western European gas industries based their operations up to now have to be reconsidered. The old western European structures which have developed under the shelter of governmental protection are under pressure from several sources. EU energy

  18. Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ferreira Dos Santos, M.J.; Dekker, S.C.; Daioglou, Vasileios; Braakhekke, M.C.; van Vuuren, Detlef

    Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for

  19. Energy demand futures by global models : Projections of a complex system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edelenbosch, O.Y.

    2018-01-01

    The energy demand sectors industry, transport and buildings are together directly responsible for around 51 % of the global energy-related CO2 emissions and indirectly drive the emissions in the energy supply sectors. The demand sectors are characterized by many subsectors, technologies,

  20. Mapping ecosystem services demand: A review of current research and future perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolff, S.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Verburg, P.H.

    2015-01-01

    Mapping the demand for ecosystem services (ES) has received increased attention in scientific research and is seen as a relevant tool to inform conservation planning, land use planning and management. Yet, there is a varying understanding of the concept of ES demand, which has implications on how

  1. The future supply of and demand for candidate materials for the fabrication of nuclear fuel waste disposal containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grover, L.K.

    1990-01-01

    This report summarizes the findings of a literature survey carried out to assess the future world supply of and demand for titanium, copper and lead. These metals are candidate materials for the fabrication of containers for the immobilization and disposal of Canada's nuclear used-fuel waste for a reference Used-fuel Disposal Centre. Such a facility may begin operation by approximately 2020, and continue for about 40 years. The survey shows that the world has abundant supplies of titanium minerals (mostly in the form of ilmenite), which are expected to last up to at least 2110. However, for copper and lead the balance between supply and demand may warrant increased monitoring beyond the year 2000. A number of factors that can influence future supply and demand are discussed in the report

  2. The impact of health information technology and e-health on the future demand for physician services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner, Jonathan P; Yeh, Susan; Blumenthal, David

    2013-11-01

    Arguably, few factors will change the future face of the American health care workforce as widely and dramatically as health information technology (IT) and electronic health (e-health) applications. We explore how such applications designed for providers and patients will affect the future demand for physicians. We performed what we believe to be the most comprehensive review of the literature to date, including previously published systematic reviews and relevant individual studies. We estimate that if health IT were fully implemented in 30 percent of community-based physicians' offices, the demand for physicians would be reduced by about 4-9 percent. Delegation of care to nurse practitioners and physician assistants supported by health IT could reduce the future demand for physicians by 4-7 percent. Similarly, IT-supported delegation from specialist physicians to generalists could reduce the demand for specialists by 2-5 percent. The use of health IT could also help address regional shortages of physicians by potentially enabling 12 percent of care to be delivered remotely or asynchronously. These estimated impacts could more than double if comprehensive health IT systems were adopted by 70 percent of US ambulatory care delivery settings. Future predictions of physician supply adequacy should take these likely changes into account.

  3. Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian Wu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model for the projection of Chinese vehicle stocks and road vehicle energy demand through 2050 based on low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios. To derive a gross-domestic product (GDP-dependent Gompertz function, Chinese GDP is estimated using a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE model. The Gompertz function is estimated using historical data on vehicle development trends in North America, Pacific Rim and Europe to overcome the problem of insufficient long-running data on Chinese vehicle ownership. Results indicate that the number of projected vehicle stocks for 2050 is 300, 455 and 463 million for low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios respectively. Furthermore, the growth in China’s vehicle stock will increase beyond the inflection point of Gompertz curve by 2020, but will not reach saturation point during the period 2014–2050. Of major road vehicle categories, cars are the largest energy consumers, followed by trucks and buses. Growth in Chinese vehicle demand is primarily determined by per capita GDP. Vehicle saturation levels solely influence the shape of the Gompertz curve and population growth weakly affects vehicle demand. Projected total energy consumption of road vehicles in 2050 is 380, 575 and 586 million tonnes of oil equivalent for each scenario.

  4. Episodic future thinking reduces delay discounting and cigarette demand: an investigation of the good-subject effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Jeffrey S; Tegge, Allison N; Turner, Jamie K; Bickel, Warren K

    2018-04-01

    Episodic future thinking (EFT), an intervention involving mental simulation of future events, has been shown to reduce both delay discounting and cigarette self-administration. In the present study, we extended these findings by showing that EFT in a web-based sample of smokers reduces delay discounting and intensity of demand for cigarettes (ad libitum consumption) in a hypothetical purchase task. No effect was observed on elasticity of demand (sensitivity to price) or cigarette craving. We also explored whether demand characteristics (specifically, the "good-subject" effect) might be responsible for observed effects. EFT participants were significantly better able than control participants to discern the experimental hypothesis. However, EFT participants were not better than controls at identifying whether they had been assigned to the experimental group and, likewise, showed no differences in attitudes about the experiment and experimenter. Importantly, effects of EFT on delay discounting and demand remained significant even when controlling for measures of demand characteristics, indicating that EFT's effects are independent of participants' perceptions about the experiment.

  5. Persistent high job demands and reactivity to mental stress predict future ambulatory blood pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steptoe, A; Cropley, M

    2000-05-01

    To test the hypothesis that work stress (persistent high job demands over 1 year) in combination with high reactivity to mental stress predict ambulatory blood pressure. Assessment of cardiovascular responses to standardized behavioural tasks, job demands, and ambulatory blood pressure over a working day and evening after 12 months. We studied 81 school teachers (26 men, 55 women), 36 of whom experienced persistent high job demands over 1 year, while 45 reported lower job demands. Participants were divided on the basis of high and low job demands, and high and low systolic pressure reactions to an uncontrollable stress task. Blood pressure and concurrent physical activity were monitored using ambulatory apparatus from 0900 to 2230 h on a working day. Cardiovascular stress reactivity was associated with waist/hip ratio. Systolic and diastolic pressure during the working day were greater in high job demand participants who were stress reactive than in other groups, after adjustment for age, baseline blood pressure, body mass index and negative affectivity. The difference was not accounted for by variations in physical activity. Cardiovascular stress reactivity and sustained psychosocial stress may act in concert to increase cardiovascular risk in susceptible individuals.

  6. Requirements on future energy supply. Analysis on the demand of future power plant capacity and strategy for a sustainable power utilization in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-08-01

    This strategy paper was drawn up with a view to maximum ecological compatibility of pwer plant modernization and sustainable power generation and use. The first part of the paper analyzes the power plants to be decommissioned on a medium-term basis and - against the background of several different scenarios for future power demand - an estimate of power plant capacities required by 2020. The second part describes the goals and concrete requirements of sustainable energy use. In the final part, the available instruments are presented, and those instruments are recommended that will be best suited for making power demand and supply efficient, sustainable and environment-friend.y [de

  7. “NEW CATASTROPHISM” AND THE FUTURE: THE DEMAND FOR NON-LINEAR KNOWLEDGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    С А Кравченко

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the phenomenon of ‘new’ catastrophes determined by the specifics of contemporary vulnerabilities, i.e. the growing structural dysfunction of the complex system of society and/or techno-natural system. The authors show that this dysfunctionality is caused by both human activities and the system’s internal reflexivity; it depends on system’s ability to bear external and internal burdens of emergent and turbulent nature, which implies the uncertainty of catastrophes. The article emphasizes that the majority of ‘new’ disasters manifest in ‘liquid’ forms, which leads to the growth of permanent uncertainties in all spheres of life, while there are obvious limitations in the use of modern scientific knowledge for managing complex vulnerabilities. Many scientific innovations within the paradigm of ‘new catastrophism’ aim to study the emerging social-natural realities to find ways to minimize vulnerabilities. The authors show such ways on the example of new sociological approaches to the analysis of climate changes, ‘dead land’, ‘dead water’, and ‘normal accidents’. The efficiency of such approaches is determined by the integration of social and natural sciences achievements and by interdisciplinary efforts to develop principles of non-linear knowledge. However, the weakness of these approaches is determined by the focus on principles of formalism and pragmatism that limit the potential of the humanities. The authors call for a humanistic turn that would combine scientific, social and humanitarian knowledge, and allow to over-come ideology and practices of anthropocentrism so as to ensure a new humanism necessary to minimize consequences of ‘new’ catastrophes and to develop the humanistic strategy for the future.

  8. Are there differences between unconditional and conditional demand estimates? implications for future research and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hidayat Budi

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimations of the demand for healthcare often rely on estimating the conditional probabilities of being ill. Such estimate poses several problems due to sample selectivity problems and an under-reporting of the incidence of illness. This study examines the effects of health insurance on healthcare demand in Indonesia, using samples that are both unconditional and conditional on being ill, and comparing the results. Methods The demand for outpatient care in three alternative providers was modeled using a multinomial logit regression for samples unconditional on being ill (N = 16485 and conditional on being ill (N = 5055. The ill sample was constructed from two measures of health status – activity of daily living impairments and severity of illness – derived from the second round of panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey. The recycling prediction method was used to predict the distribution of utilization rates based on having health insurance and income status, while holding all other variables constant. Results Both unconditional and conditional estimates yield similar results in terms of the direction of the most covariates. The magnitude effects of insurance on healthcare demand are about 7.5% (public providers and 20% (private providers higher for unconditional estimates than for conditional ones. Further, exogenous variables in the former estimates explain a higher variation of the model than that in the latter ones. Findings confirm that health insurance has a positive impact on the demand for healthcare, with the highest effect found among the lowest income group. Conclusion Conditional estimates do not suffer from statistical selection bias. Such estimates produce smaller demand effects for health insurance than unconditional ones do. Whether to rely on conditional or unconditional demand estimates depends on the purpose of study in question. Findings also demonstrate that health insurance programs

  9. A future Demand Side Management (DSM) opportunity for utility as variable renewable penetrate scale up using agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ines, A.; Bhattacharjee, A.; Modi, V.; Robertson, A. W.; Lall, U.; Kocaman Ayse, S.; Chaudhary, S.; Kumar, A.; Ganapathy, A.; Kumar, A.; Mishra, V.

    2015-12-01

    Energy demand management, also known as demand side management (DSM), is the modification of consumer demand for energy through various methods such as smart metering, incentive based schemes, payments for turning off loads or rescheduling loads. Usually, the goal of demand side management is to encourage the consumer to use less power during periods of peak demand, or to move the time of energy use to off-peak times. Peak demand management does not necessarily decrease total energy consumption, but could be expected to reduce the need for investments in networks and/or power plants for meeting peak demands. Electricity use can vary dramatically on short and medium time frames, and the pricing system may not reflect the instantaneous cost as additional higher-cost that are brought on-line. In addition, the capacity or willingness of electricity consumers to adjust to prices by altering elasticity of demand may be low, particularly over short time frames. In the scenario of Indian grid setup, the retail customers do not follow real-time pricing and it is difficult to incentivize the utility companies for continuing the peak demand supply. A question for the future is how deeper penetration of renewable will be handled? This is a challenging problem since one has to deal with high variability, while managing loss of load probabilities. In the case of managing the peak demand using agriculture, in the future as smart metering matures with automatic turn on/off for a pump, it will become possible to provide an ensured amount of water or energy to the farmer while keeping the grid energized for 24 hours. Supply scenarios will include the possibility of much larger penetration of solar and wind into the grid. While, in absolute terms these sources are small contributors, their role will inevitably grow but DSM using agriculture could help reduce the capital cost. The other option is of advancing or delaying pump operating cycle even by several hours, will still ensure

  10. Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, E.

    2012-06-01

    Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

  11. Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation Demand and Crop Growth in a Mediterranean Environment of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomokazu Haraguchi

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available A simulation study was carried out to describe effects of climate change on cropgrowth and irrigation water demand for a wheat-maize cropping sequence in aMediterranean environment of Turkey. Climate change scenarios were projected using dataof the three general circulation models—GCMs (CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI—for theperiod of 1990 to 2100 and one regional climate model—RCM—for the period of 2070 to2079. Potential impacts of climate change based on GCMs data were estimated for the A2scenario in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES. The forcing data for theboundary condition of the RCM were given by the MRI model. Daily CGCM2 and RCMdata were used for computations of water balance and crop development. Predictionsderived from the models about changes in irrigation and crop growth in this study coveredthe period of 2070 to 2079 relative to the baseline period of 1994 to 2003. The effects ofclimate change on water demand and on wheat and maize yields were predicted using thedetailed crop growth subroutine of the SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant model. Precipitation was projected to decrease by about 163, 163 and 105 mm during the periodof 1990 to 2100 under the A2 scenario of the CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI models,respectively. The CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI models projected a temperature rise of 4.3,5.3 and 3.1 oC, respectively by 2100. An increase in temperature may result in a higherevaporative demand of the atmosphere. However, actual evapotranspiration (ETa fromwheat cropland under a doubling CO2 concentration for the period of 2070 to 2079 wasSensors 2007, 7 2298 predicted to decrease by about 28 and 8% relative to the baseline period based on the CGCM2 and RCM data, respectively. According to these models, irrigation demand by wheat would be higher for the same period due to a decrease in precipitation. Both ETa and irrigation water for maize cropland were projected to decrease by 24 and 15

  12. Characteristics of future air cargo demand and impact on aircraft development: A report on the Cargo/Logistic Airlift Systems Study (CLASS) project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitehead, A. H., Jr.

    1978-01-01

    Current domestic and international air cargo operations are studied and the characteristics of 1990 air cargo demand are postulated from surveys conducted at airports and with shippers, consignees, and freight forwarders as well as air, land, and ocean carriers. Simulation and route optimization programs are exercised to evaluate advanced aircraft concepts. The results show that proposed changes in the infrastructure and improved cargo loading efficiencies are as important enhancing the prospects of air cargo growth as is the advent of advanced freighter aircraft. Potential reductions in aircraft direct operating costs are estimated and related to future total revenue. Service and cost elasticities are established and utilized to estimate future potential tariff reductions that may be realized through direct and indirect operating cost reductions and economies of scale.

  13. Will the supply meet the demand? The future of the natural gas liquids market in the WCSB

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stauft, T.

    2004-01-01

    Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) price influences were reviewed in this presentation, as well as issues concerning North American propane demand and waterborne imports. A review of U.S. propane stocks was provided as well as regional temperature outlooks for 2004-2005. A cracking feedstock parity forecast was presented, as well as United States gross gas plant margins and propane prices to July 2005. Canadian propane inventories and prices were reviewed. A propane supply and demand forecast to 2020 was presented. Alberta's natural gas supply and intra-Alberta oil sand gas demand growth were discussed. Various market uncertainties include higher levels of activity; the potential of petroleum prices falling due to a reduction of geopolitical risk; the possibility of a U.S. recession; and the growth of Alberta's oil sands industry, with resulting demand for natural gas. It was concluded that the NGL market in North America will continue to be balanced, with waterborne imports becoming more critical. It was suggested that inventories are adequate for the expected winter season. It was also suggested that Canadian NGL supplies are expected to decline, and that prices are expected to soften in the spring of 2005, with falling natural gas and crude oil prices. refs., tabs., figs

  14. Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar; Hamilton, Marcus J

    2010-10-05

    Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

  15. Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John P DeLong

    Full Text Available Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

  16. Nuclear power's changing future - Fastest growth in Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Twenty-two of the last 31 nuclear power plants (NPPs) connected to the world's energy grid have been built in Asia, driven by the pressures of economic growth, natural resource scarcity and increasing populations. Of the new NPPs presently under construction, 18 of the 27 are located in Asia, while construction has virtually halted in Western European and North American countries with long-standing nuclear power programmes, says the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The IAEA reports that although four Western European countries have decided to shut down their nuclear energy plants, the future of nuclear energy in Europe and North America is still far from clear, during a period when energy needs and concerns over global warming are both rising. Only one new NPP is beginning construction in Western Europe. No new NPPs are planned in North America, although that could change very soon. The Conference examines the status and future of nuclear power 50 years after the first nuclear energy producing plant came o n-line , at a plant near Moscow in the then Soviet Union on June 26, 1954. It covers the following topics: Nuclear Prospects in Near and Long-Term; Nuclear Power Today: Shifting to the East; Climate Change and Economics: Factors for Growth (NPPs Avoid Carbon Emissions, Costs are Low at Operating Plants; New Plants are Expensive); the Key Issues are Safety and Waste management; Uranium resources are abundant; sustainable development

  17. Water availability and demand in West Africa in the 21st century: impacts of climate change and population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisser, Dominik; Oyerinde, Ganiyu; Ibrahim, Moussa; Ibrahim, Boubacar

    2014-05-01

    The countries in West Africa are highly dependent on rainfed agriculture. Changes in the magnitude and timing of precipitation will affect the agricultural output and the economies as a whole. Irrigation is increasingly being considered an important adaptation option to help improve food security of the population that is expected to double in less than 50 years. West Africa is one of the regions where general circulation models (GCM) show the highest disagreements in the direction of future trends of precipitation, making assessments of water availability and the potential for irrigation a difficult task. We use output from a set of dynamically downscaled climate data sets from regional climate modes (RCM) from the CORDEX CMIP5 collection to drive WBMplus, a macroscale hydrological model and simultaneously calculate water demand (livestock, domestic, and irrigation) and availability for a set of land use, and socio economic scenarios around the 2050's for river basins in the ten countries participating in the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) project. Contrary to earlier results from GCMs, the set of RCMs suggest a consistent increase (~5-10%) in annual precipitation for a majority of the land area in West Africa that translates to slight increases in river flow under natural conditions for most river basins and a opportunities for increasing irrigation during the dry season. However, water demand is projected to more than double for livestock and domestic needs as a result of population growth. Demand for irrigation will rise sharply if irrigation is expanded from the current area (representing less than 3% of all croplands in the region), closer to its potential which is multiple times higher than the existing area. The pressures on water resources in the region will therefore be dominated by pressures arising from increased demand rather than changes in the availability of water and can potentially lead to

  18. Endocrine manipulation of growth in animals: Future prospects especially in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buttery, P.J.

    1989-01-01

    The successful use of a number of anabolic steroid preparations in numerous countries has demonstrated that manipulation of an animal's endocrine status can lead to a substantially enhanced growth rate. Despite evidence that, used correctly, these materials present no health hazard to the consumer of treated meat, their use is not permitted in several countries. This prohibition influences the extent of world trade in meat. Modern biotechnology offers other methods of enhancing growth, e.g. the use of peptide hormones or growth factors produced by recombinant DNA technologies. Potentially, the immune response can also be exploited to increase growth and in the longer term transgenic animals may also prove a satisfactory alternative. Animals with enhanced growth potential will however require an enhanced food supply. In many parts of the world what is required is a method to lower the nutrient demands of animals during periods of feed shortage. This approach requires a substantially different philosophy and of course separate financial resources for its development. In developing countries, despite the excitement associated with new technologies, there appears to be much more to be gained, at least in the immediate future, by improving the nutrition and the health of animals. (author). 28 refs, 6 tabs

  19. Future World Energy Demand and Supply: China and India and the Potential Role of Fusion Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheffield, John

    2005-01-01

    Massive increases in energy demand are projected for countries such as China and India over this century e.g., many 100s of megawatts of electricity (MWe) of additional electrical capacity by 2050, with more additions later, are being considered for each of them. All energy sources will be required to meet such a demand. Fortunately, while world energy demand will be increasing, the world is well endowed with a variety of energy resources. However, their distribution does not match the areas of demand and there are many environmental issues.Such geopolitical issues affect China and India and make it important for them to be able to deploy improved technologies. In this regard, South Korea is an interesting example of a country that has developed the capability to do advanced technologies - such as nuclear power plants. International collaborations in developing these technologies, such as the International Thermonuclear Reactor (ITER), may be important in all energy areas. Fusion energy is viewed as an interesting potential option in these three countries

  20. The Past, Present, and Future of Demand-Driven Acquisitions in Academic Libraries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goedeken, Edward A.; Lawson, Karen

    2015-01-01

    Demand-driven acquisitions (DDA) programs have become a well-established approach toward integrating user involvement in the process of building academic library collections. However, these programs are in a constant state of evolution. A recent iteration in this evolution of ebook availability is the advent of large ebook collections whose…

  1. Islanding Control Architecture in future smart grid with both demand and wind turbine control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yu; Xu, Zhao; Østergaard, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    , which is the focus of this paper, available resources including both DG units and demand should be fully utilized as reserves. The control and coordination among different resources requires an integral architecture to serve the purpose. This paper develops the Islanding Control Architecture (ICA...

  2. The compatibility of future doctors' career intentions with changing health care demands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Offenbeek, M.A.G.; Kiewiet, D.J.; Oosterhuis, M.

    Background: In the Netherlands the medical education system is in the process of being transformed to establish a more demand-oriented health care system. This transformation may entail the occupational restructuring of the medical profession. Meanwhile, on the supply side, the career intentions of

  3. In a changing society which elements and competencies is needed and demanded in the future OT education?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Bodil Winther; Sørensen, Annette

    to plan a curriculum, in order to enable OT graduates to meet employers’ demands in a rapidly changing society •The future OT profession. After 12 years of practising Problem Based Learning (PBL), the Faculty of Occupational Therapy wanted to develop the quality of the OT education offered by Metropolitan...... University College, Copenhagen. The object was to evaluate and develop the pedagogical practice, and to examine if the pedagogical concept prepares the students for the future in the best way possible. To describe the level of education to be achieved in terms of competences and learning outcome, the study...... was inspired by the Tuning Process of educational structures in Europe, which is part of the Bologna process to integrate higher education in Europe. The study is based on literature studies, quantitative and qualitative methods. All of these methods are suitable for uncovering competences demanded by practice...

  4. The extent to which ATP demand controls the glycolytic flux depends strongly on the organism and conditions for growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Købmann, Brian Jensen; Westerhoff, H.V.; Snoep, J.L.

    2002-01-01

    Using molecular genetics we have introduced uncoupled ATPase activity in two different bacterial species, Escherichia coli and Lactococcus lactis, and determined the elasticities of the growth rate and glycolytic flux towards the intracellular [ATP]/[ADP] ratio. During balanced growth in batch...... cultures of E. coli the ATP demand was found to have almost full control on the glycolytic flux (FCC=0.96) and the flux could be stimulated by 70%. In contrast to this, in L. lactis the control by ATP demand on the glycolytic flux was close to zero. However, when we used non-growing cells of L. lactis...... (which have a low glycolytic flux) the ATP demand had a high flux control and the flux could be stimulated more than two fold. We suggest that the extent to which ATP demand controls the glycolytic flux depends on how much excess capacity of glycolysis is present in the cells....

  5. Post-Keynesyen Talep Yönelimli Büyüme Modelleri(Post-Keynesian Demand Oriented Growth Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yelda Bugay TEKGÜL

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Economic literature generally contains growth models dominated by classical/neo-classical approach. These models focused on the differences in the growth rates among countries in terms of supply of factors of production. Wheras capital accumulation and technical progress are viewed as the main determinant of the growth, increase in per-capita income is only determined by supply-side factors. Should the economy is in the position of under-employment and under-capacity, then these approaches are not capable of satisfactory explanation for the economic growth. Assumptions of supply-side approach are endogenous regarding the economic system and restricted by the demand. In an open economy, growth can be defined as a component of a Keynesian demand-oriented economic system and it is genarally called as Post-Keynesian growth models. These models have been developed on two main axes: “Export-led growth model”, introduced by N. Kaldor and “balance-of-payment constrained growth model”introduced by A.P.Thirwall in 1979. Export-led growth model is based on the assumption that internally determined productivity increases generate a virtous circle economy. Balance-of-payment constrained growth model, on the other hand, is based on the assumption that foreign trade deficit cannot continue forever and that long-run growth rate is a function of the export and elasticity of demand for import of the country. The objective of this paper is to discuss and critisize export-led growth and balance-of-payment constrained growth model.

  6. Analysis of Current and Future Water Demands in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios Using a Hydro-Economic WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Amin

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Pakistan is currently facing physical and economic water scarcity issues that are further complicated by the rapid increase in its population and by climate change. Many studies have focused on the physical water scarcity using hydrological modeling and the measurement of the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB. However, few studies have concentrated on the importance of the economic water scarcity, that is, the water management issue under the looming impacts of climate change and the population explosion of Pakistan. The purpose of this study is to develop a management strategy which helps to achieve water security and sustainability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB with the help of different socio-economic and climate change scenarios using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning modeling. The streamflow data of five sub-basins (Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, and Astore and the entire Upper Indus Basin (UIB were calibrated (2006–2010 and validated (2011–2014 in the WEAP model. The coefficient of determination and Nash Sutcliffe values for the calibration period ranged from 0.81–0.96. The coefficient of determination and the Nash Sutcliffe values for the validation period ranged from 0.85–0.94. After the development of the WEAP model, the analysis of the unmet water demand and percent coverage of the water demand for the period of 2006–2050 was computed. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth, urbanization, and living standards and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. The results indicated that the future unmet water demand is likely to reach 134 million cubic meters (mcm by the year 2050 and that the external driving factors are putting more pressure on the supply service. This study further explores the importance of proposed dams (likely to be built until 2025 by WAPDA (Water and Power Development

  7. Economics of Future Growth in Photovoltaics Manufacturing; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basore, Paul; Chung, Donald; Buonassisi, Tonio

    2015-06-14

    The past decade’s record of growth in the photovoltaic manufacturing industry indicates that global investment in manufacturing capacity for photovoltaic modules tends to increase in proportion to the size of the industry. The slope of this proportionality determines how fast the industry will grow in the future. Two key parameters determine this slope. One is the annual global investment in manufacturing capacity normalized to the manufacturing capacity for the previous year (capacity-normalized capital investment rate, CapIR, units $/W). The other is how much capital investment is required for each watt of annual manufacturing capacity, normalized to the service life of the assets (capacity-normalized capital demand rate, CapDR, units $/W). If these two parameters remain unchanged from the values they have held for the past few years, global manufacturing capacity will peak in the next few years and then decline. However, it only takes a small improvement in CapIR to ensure future growth in photovoltaics. Any accompanying improvement in CapDR will accelerate that growth.

  8. Lurgi MegaMethanol technology. Delivering the building blocks for the future fuel and monomer demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wurzel, T. [Lurgi AG, Frankfurt/Main (Germany)

    2006-07-01

    The paper describes the central role of methanol within a changing environment with respect to feedstock availability as well as steadily growing demand in fuel and monomer demand. The current large-scale production facilities are described with respect to the technological challenges in order to ensure the availability of sufficient methanol for down-stream applications. Different down-stream applications are described which clearly confirm that methanol is the dominant C1-building block due to its chemical flexibility. It is concluded that by means of the implementation of two MTP (Methanol to Propylene) projects in China initiated the era of ''down-stream methanol'' has begun in the industry. (orig.)

  9. Modelling the potential consequences of future worldwide biomass energy demand for the french forests and timber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buongiorno, Joseph; Raunikar, Ronald; Zhu, Shushuai

    2011-01-01

    This article describes an investigation conducted, using a world model for the forestry and forest-based industries, on the effects of the current unpredictable changes in worldwide demand for biomass energy on this sector in France. Two contrasting scenarios are tested. The results are commented and the potential conflict between various would uses - workable timber, industrial timber and dendro-energy - is underscored. (authors)

  10. The nuclear acceptability: what to do to make the nuclear answer the future demand?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birraux, C.

    2001-01-01

    To be listening to the public by establishing or restoring the facts truth, by being exemplary, without arrogance, correcting and acknowledging one's lacks if they exist and being resolutely turned towards future. (N.C.)

  11. Spacecraft Complexity Subfactors and Implications on Future Cost Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leising, Charles J.; Wessen, Randii; Ellyin, Ray; Rosenberg, Leigh; Leising, Adam

    2013-01-01

    During the last ten years the Jet Propulsion Laboratory has used a set of cost-risk subfactors to independently estimate the magnitude of development risks that may not be covered in the high level cost models employed during early concept development. Within the last several years the Laboratory has also developed a scale of Concept Maturity Levels with associated criteria to quantitatively assess a concept's maturity. This latter effort has been helpful in determining whether a concept is mature enough for accurate costing but it does not provide any quantitative estimate of cost risk. Unfortunately today's missions are significantly more complex than when the original cost-risk subfactors were first formulated. Risks associated with complex missions are not being adequately evaluated and future cost growth is being underestimated. The risk subfactor process needed to be updated.

  12. The future of energy markets: tensions between the conflicting demands of competition and politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wild, E.

    2000-01-01

    It clearly shows that the whole energy sector is on the move, pulled this way and that by the conflicting demands of competition and politics. The utilities face enormous pressure on costs, while customers enjoy an unprecedented measure of freedom. No one can avoid the pressure of the market, not even politicians. The latter should recognize that there is no point in hobbling an industry that has to face up to the European competition, and that fair conditions of competition are essential. If the political conditions are right, the current tensions may ultimately turn out to be fruitful and release new energies from which all will profit. (orig.) [de

  13. Nuclear Research and Development Capabilities Needed to Support Future Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wham, Robert M. [ORNL, P.O. Box 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6154 (United States); Kearns, Paul [Battelle Memorial Institute (United States); Marston, Ted [Marston Consulting (United States)

    2009-06-15

    The energy crisis looming before the United States can be resolved only by an approach that integrates a 'portfolio' of options. Nuclear energy, already an important element in the portfolio, should play an even more significant role in the future as the U.S. strives to attain energy independence and reduce carbon emissions. The DOE Office of Nuclear Energy asked Battelle Memorial Institute to obtain input from the commercial power generation industry on industry's vision for nuclear energy over the next 30-50 years. With this input, Battelle was asked to generate a set of research and development capabilities necessary for DOE to support the anticipated growth in nuclear power generation. This presentation, based on the report generated for the Office of Nuclear Energy, identifies the current and future nuclear research and development capabilities required to make this happen. The capabilities support: (1) continued, safe operation of the current fleet of nuclear plants; (2) the availability of a well qualified and trained workforce; (3) demonstration of the next generation nuclear plants; (4) development of a sustainable fuel cycle; (5) advanced technologies for maximizing resource utilization and minimization of waste and (6) advanced modeling and simulation for rapid and reliable development and deployment of new nuclear technologies. In order to assure these capabilities are made available, a Strategic Nuclear Energy Capability Initiative is proposed to provide the required resources during this critical period of time. (authors)

  14. Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shunsuke Doi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Accessibility to healthcare service providers, the quantity, and the quality of them are important for national health. In this study, we focused on geographic accessibility to estimate and evaluate future demand and supply of healthcare services. We constructed a simulation model called the patient access area model (PAAM, which simulates patients’ access time to healthcare service institutions using a geographic information system (GIS. Using this model, to evaluate the balance of future healthcare services demand and supply in small areas, we estimated the number of inpatients every five years in each area and compared it with the number of hospital beds within a one-hour drive from each area. In an experiment with the Tokyo metropolitan area as a target area, when we assumed hospital bed availability to be 80%, it was predicted that over 78,000 inpatients would not receive inpatient care in 2030. However, this number would decrease if we lowered the rate of inpatient care by 10% and the average length of the hospital stay. Using this model, recommendations can be made regarding what action should be undertaken and by when to prevent a dramatic increase in healthcare demand. This method can help plan the geographical resource allocation in healthcare services for healthcare policy.

  15. On the future role of Gulf oil in meeting world energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy Eltony, M.

    1996-01-01

    The validity of the view of a growing dependence of the world on oil from the Persian Gulf, and the resulting implications for the economies of the Gulf countries were examined. The prevailing view in the countries of the Persian Gulf is that the demand for oil will continue to rise, resulting in the inevitable increase in prices which will in turn alleviate the budget deficit problems currently encountered by most of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. The author argues that the implication of this view is that GCC countries are failing to address the fundamental structural problems within their economies, and raise questions that tend to undermine this hypothesis of continuing dependence on Gulf oil by the rest of the world. Some of these factors are growing reliance on electricity and natural gas, environmental concerns, development of alternative fuels, political instability in the Gulf states and the potential interruption in supply, all of which tend to accelerate the trend towards reduced demand for Gulf oil. The following have been recommended as ways of avoiding the ultimate risk of huge unwanted oil reserves: diversification of the economies of GCC countries; reduced spending and increased investment in developing further capacity from non-GCC sources through cooperation and joint ventures between developing countries and international companies; a more active role in worldwide decisions relating to environmental concerns; and finally, a systematic monitoring and evaluation of the likely impacts of new developments in all areas of alternative energy. 17 refs

  16. The future of radiation oncology in the United States from 2010 to 2020: will supply keep pace with demand?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Benjamin D; Haffty, Bruce G; Wilson, Lynn D; Smith, Grace L; Patel, Akshar N; Buchholz, Thomas A

    2010-12-10

    Prior studies forecasted an incipient shortage of medical oncologists as a result of the aging US population, but the radiation oncology workforce has not been studied. Accordingly, we projected demand for radiation therapy and supply of radiation oncologists in 2010 and 2020 to determine whether a similar shortage may exist for this specialty. Demand for radiation therapy in 2010 and 2020 was estimated by multiplying current radiation utilization rates (as calculated with Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data) by population projections from the Census Bureau. Supply of radiation oncologists was projected using data from the American Board of Radiology inclusive of current radiation oncologists and active residents, accounting for variation in full-time equivalent status and expected survival by age and sex. Between 2010 and 2020, the total number of patients receiving radiation therapy during their initial treatment course is expected to increase by 22%, from 470,000 per year to 575,000 per year. In contrast, assuming that the current graduation rate of 140 residents per year remains constant, the number of full-time equivalent radiation oncologists is expected to increase by only 2%, from 3,943 to 4,022. The size of residency training classes for the years 2014 to 2019 would have to double to 280 residents per year in order for growth in supply of radiation oncologists to equal expected growth in demand. Demand for radiation therapy is expected to grow 10 times faster than supply between 2010 and 2020. Research is needed to explore strategies to enhance capacity to deliver quality radiation therapy despite increased patient loads.

  17. Future Opportunities and Challenges with Using Demand Response as a Resource in Distribution System Operation and Planning Activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cappers, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); MacDonald, Jason [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Page, Janie [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Potter, Jennifer [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Stewart, Emma [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-01-01

    This scoping study focuses on identifying the ability for current and future demand response opportunities to contribute to distribution system management. To do so, this scoping study will identify the needs of a distribution system to operate efficiently, safely and reliably; summarize both benefits and challenges for the operation of the distribution system with high penetration levels of distributed energy resources; define a suite of services based on those changing operational needs that could be provided by resources; identify existing demand response opportunities sponsored by distribution utilities and/or aggregators of retail customers; assess the extent to which distribution system services can be provided via DR opportunities both in their current form and with alterations to their design; and provide a qualitative assessment of coordination issues that bulk power and distribution system providers of DR opportunities will need to address.

  18. Changing the game; some thoughts on future healthcare demands, technology, nursing and interprofessional education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrett, Bernard M

    2012-07-01

    This editorial discusses the conclusions of a number of high-profile reports on the future of healthcare provision, and healthcare professional education. The need for the realignment of service provision, regulation, interdisciplinary healthcare and supporting education is discussed in the context of rapid technological and social change. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Higher demand and production in 2004, but growth wavers in 2005 : markets for paper, paperboard and woodpulp, 2004-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Eduard Akim; Bernard Lombard; Tomas Parik

    2005-01-01

    Global pulp, paper and paperboard markets improved in 2004 and 2005, as indicated by generally higher prices for most pulp, paper and paperboard products in comparison with 2003. While growth in demand was quite robust in 2004, by the end of the first half of 2005, markets appeared more hesitant and prices appeared to waver or reach a plateau. Within the UNECE region,...

  20. Roof windows in low-energy buildings - Analyses of demands and possibilities for future product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skarning, Gunnlaug Cecilie Jensen; Duer, Karsten; Hviid, Christian Anker

    As part of an ambitious energy policy and strategy for reducing the use of fossil fuels in the European Union, all new buildings are required to consume `nearly zero-energy' by the end of 2020. This creates a strong need for research in cost-effective solutions and technology that can help balance...... transmittances of about 40-70% could provide suffcient daylighting without overheating in the climates of Rome and Copenhagen, as long as they were located in rooms with a reasonable layout for daylighting and appropriate solar-control coating was used on solar exposed glazing. The same was true for sloped...... and horizontal roof windows with any choice of light transmittance in both climates. Roof-window thermal properties needed for flexibility were then identied by studying the effect of these options on space-heating demand in rooms representing various parts of a 11/2-storey house with a simplied floor plan and...

  1. Meeting the global food demand of the future by engineering crop photosynthesis and yield potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Stephen P; Marshall-Colon, Amy; Zhu, Xin-Guang

    2015-03-26

    Increase in demand for our primary foodstuffs is outstripping increase in yields, an expanding gap that indicates large potential food shortages by mid-century. This comes at a time when yield improvements are slowing or stagnating as the approaches of the Green Revolution reach their biological limits. Photosynthesis, which has been improved little in crops and falls far short of its biological limit, emerges as the key remaining route to increase the genetic yield potential of our major crops. Thus, there is a timely need to accelerate our understanding of the photosynthetic process in crops to allow informed and guided improvements via in-silico-assisted genetic engineering. Potential and emerging approaches to improving crop photosynthetic efficiency are discussed, and the new tools needed to realize these changes are presented. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983–2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (λ); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of λ during 1983–2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972–1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008–1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of λ that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding λ. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and λ provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic

  3. Growth in Malaysian Demand for Business Education--the Australian Response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Philip E. T.; Pratt, Graham R.

    1996-01-01

    Increasing Malaysian demand for business education is examined from the perspective of Australia, one of the largest suppliers to the region. Topics discussed include: origins and nature of the demand; Malaysian enrollment patterns in Australia; "twinning programs," in which a Malaysian college and a foreign university collaborate to…

  4. Oral medicine (stomatology) across the globe: birth, growth, and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scully, Crispian; Miller, Craig S; Aguirre Urizar, Jose-Manuel; Alajbeg, Ivan; Almeida, Oslei P D; Bagan, Jose Vicente; Birek, Catalena; Chen, Qianming; Farah, Camile S; Figueirido, José Pedro; Hasséus, Bengt; Jontell, Mats; Kerr, A Ross; Laskaris, George; Lo Muzio, Lorenzo; Mosqueda-Taylor, Adalberto; Nagesh, Kikkeri S; Nikitakis, Nikolaos G; Peterson, Douglas; Sciubba, James; Thongprasom, Kobkan; Tovaru, Şerban; Zadik, Yehuda

    2016-02-01

    Oral medicine (stomatology) is a recognized and increasingly important dental specialty in many parts of the world that recognizes and fosters the interplay between medical health and oral health. Its dental activities rely greatly on the underlying biology of disease and evidence-based outcomes. However, full recognition of the importance of oral medicine to patient care, research, and education is not yet totally universally acknowledged. To address these shortcomings, we outline the birth, growth, and future of oral medicine globally, and record identifiable past contributions to the development of the specialty, providing an accurate, unique, and valuable resource on oral medicine. Although it was challenging to gather the data, we present this information as a review that endeavors to summarize the salient points about oral medicine, based on MEDLINE, other internet searches, communication with oral medicine and stomatological societies across the world, the web page http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dental_organizations, and discussions with a wide range of key senior persons in the specialty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Integrated Modeling of Crop Growth and Water Resource Management to Project Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production and Irrigation Water Supply and Demand in African Nations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, A. L.; Boehlert, B.; Reisenauer, M.; Strzepek, K. M.; Solomon, S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change poses substantial risks to African agriculture. These risks are exacerbated by concurrent risks to water resources, with water demand for irrigation comprising 80 to 90% of water withdrawals across the continent. Process-based crop growth models are able to estimate both crop demand for irrigation water and crop yields, and are therefore well-suited to analyses of climate change impacts at the food-water nexus. Unfortunately, impact assessments based on these models generally focus on either yields or water demand, rarely both. For this work, we coupled a crop model to a water resource management model in order to predict national trends in the impact of climate change on crop production, irrigation water demand, and the availability of water for irrigation across Africa. The crop model FAO AquaCrop-OS was run at 2ox2o resolution for 17 different climate futures from the CMIP5 archive, nine for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and eight for RCP8.5. Percent changes in annual rainfed and irrigated crop production and temporal shifts in monthly irrigation water demand were estimated for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 for maize, sorghum, rice, wheat, cotton, sugarcane, fruits & vegetables, roots & tubers, and legumes & soybeans. AquaCrop was then coupled to a water management model (WEAP) in order to project changes in the ability of seven major river basins (the Congo, Niger, Nile, Senegal, Upper Orange, Volta, and Zambezi) to meet irrigation water demand out to 2050 in both average and dry years in the face of both climate change and irrigation expansion. Spatial and temporal trends were identified and interpreted through the lens of potential risk management strategies. Uncertainty in model estimates is reported and discussed.

  6. Benefits of Demand-Side Response in Providing Frequency Response Service in the Future GB Power System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teng, Fei, E-mail: fei.teng09@imperial.ac.uk; Aunedi, Marko; Pudjianto, Danny; Strbac, Goran [Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Imperial College London, London (United Kingdom)

    2015-08-18

    The demand for ancillary service is expected to increase significantly in the future Great Britain (GB) electricity system due to high penetration of wind. In particular, the need for frequency response, required to deal with sudden frequency drops following a loss of generator, will increase because of the limited inertia capability of wind plants. This paper quantifies the requirements for primary frequency response and analyses the benefits of frequency response provision from demand-side response (DSR). The results show dramatic changes in frequency response requirements driven by high penetration of wind. Case studies carried out by using an advanced stochastic generation scheduling model suggest that the provision of frequency response from DSR could greatly reduce the system operation cost, wind curtailment, and carbon emissions in the future GB system characterized by high penetration of wind. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that the benefit of DSR shows significant diurnal and seasonal variation, whereas an even more rapid (instant) delivery of frequency response from DSR could provide significant additional value. Our studies also indicate that the competing technologies to DSR, namely battery storage, and more flexible generation could potentially reduce its value by up to 35%, still leaving significant room to deploy DSR as frequency response provider.

  7. Benefits of Demand-Side Response in Providing Frequency Response Service in the Future GB Power System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teng, Fei; Aunedi, Marko; Pudjianto, Danny; Strbac, Goran

    2015-01-01

    The demand for ancillary service is expected to increase significantly in the future Great Britain (GB) electricity system due to high penetration of wind. In particular, the need for frequency response, required to deal with sudden frequency drops following a loss of generator, will increase because of the limited inertia capability of wind plants. This paper quantifies the requirements for primary frequency response and analyses the benefits of frequency response provision from demand-side response (DSR). The results show dramatic changes in frequency response requirements driven by high penetration of wind. Case studies carried out by using an advanced stochastic generation scheduling model suggest that the provision of frequency response from DSR could greatly reduce the system operation cost, wind curtailment, and carbon emissions in the future GB system characterized by high penetration of wind. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that the benefit of DSR shows significant diurnal and seasonal variation, whereas an even more rapid (instant) delivery of frequency response from DSR could provide significant additional value. Our studies also indicate that the competing technologies to DSR, namely battery storage, and more flexible generation could potentially reduce its value by up to 35%, still leaving significant room to deploy DSR as frequency response provider.

  8. The dynamics of sectoral electricity demand for a panel of US states: New evidence on the consumption–growth nexus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saunoris, James W.; Sheridan, Brandon J.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we use a panel of the 48 contiguous US states over the period 1970–2009 to examine the dynamics of electricity demand in addressing the four hypotheses set forth in the literature: growth, conservation, neutrality, and feedback. In doing so we provide both short-run and long-run elasticity estimates for electricity demand. Recent developments in nonstationary panel estimation techniques allow for heterogeneity in the coefficients while examining the direction of causality among electricity consumption, electricity prices, and income growth. In addition to the full sample, we also disaggregate the sample into three sectors: commercial, industrial, and residential. The short-run results provide evidence in favor of the growth hypothesis for the aggregate sample, as well as for the industrial sector. For the residential and commercial sectors, the conservation hypothesis is supported. Long-run results favor the conservation hypothesis. To ascertain differences in electricity demand relating to electricity intensity we also examine states based on their efficiency in electricity consumption. Overall, the results yield in favor of the growth hypothesis for low intensity states and conservation hypothesis for high intensity states. - Highlights: • We use dynamic panel techniques to model electricity demand by sector for US states. • The conservation hypothesis is supported in the long run; short-run results are mixed. • The conservation hypothesis is supported in the high-electricity-intensity subsample. • The growth hypothesis is supported in the low-electricity-intensity subsample. • Policies aimed at energy conservation should be long-run in nature

  9. Is Solar Power The Best Energy Option To Meet Our Future Demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samyak Shami

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Currently about 65 of global electricity generation now is fossil fuel-based spewing 13 giga tonnes of CO2 . With mass production and innovations in technology the prices of renewable energy sources have plummeted to such levels where have become a welcoming option even without the subsidies.China has installed nearly 100 gigawatts GW of wind power and plans to double it within the next five years while Britain is also in offshore wind power in a big way. However oil continues to be the most valued fuel source as almost all of it is consumed in internal combustion IC engines mostly for transport and some for captive power plants. Biofuels and hydrogen fuel cells may be used as alternatives to petrol but biofuels which include ethanol hamper the performance of a vehicle.The production cost of solar power panels has come down so much that they are competing with the coal-based power even without the subsidy. The solar powered lanterns made up of a few light-emitting diodes are bringing light and enhancing the quality of life in the worlds poorest regions which are also located in the equatorial region. The US Department of Energys target is to produce 27 of Americas electricity using solar power by 2050 up from less than 1 today. In Australia solar power panels most of them on rooftops cater to almost 10 of the demand. About 25 households of South Australia have solar power followed by Queensland 22 and Western Australia 18.Modern innovations in solar cells show enormous capabilities for them to be used extensively on windows buildings even cell phones or any device that has a clear surface. Similar strides have been made in concentrated solar power. The Solar power however has limitations too. It can not generate power during night or when sky is overcast. Excessive power generated by solar panels has led to a crisis in Germany and elsewhere to the extent that generating companies in addition to selling were also paying back the managers

  10. Profit-driven and demand-driven investment growth and fluctuations in different accumulation regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Giovanni Dosi; Mauro Sodini; Maria Enrica Virgillito

    2013-01-01

    The main task of this work is to develope a model able to encompass, at the same time, Keynesian, demand-driven, and Marxian, profit-driven determinants of fluctuations. Our starting point is the Goodwin's model (1967), rephrased in discrete time and extended by means of a coupled dynamics structure. The model entails the combined interaction of a demand effect, which resembles a rudimentary first approximation to an accelerator, and of a hysteresis effect in wage formation in turn affecting ...

  11. Larval developmental rate, metabolic rate and future growth performance in Atlantic salmon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Serrano, Jonathan Vaz; Åberg, Madelene; Gjoen, Hans Magnus

    2009-01-01

    , quantified as time to first feeding, and growth in later stages was demonstrated in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). The observed relationship between future growth and larval developmental rate suggests that sorting larvae by time to first feeding can be a potential tool to optimize feeding strategies...... and growth in commercial rearing of Atlantic salmon. Furthermore, the link between larval standard metabolic rate and developmental rate and future growth is discussed in the present study....

  12. Impact of Population Aging on Asia's Future Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Donghyun; Shin, Kwanho

    2011-01-01

    First, the expert contributors argue, Asia must find ways to sustain rapid economic growth in the face of less favorable demographics, which implies slower growth of the workforce. Second, they contend, Asia must find ways to deliver affordable, adequate, and sustainable old-age economic security for its growing elderly population. Underpinned by rigorous analysis, a wide range of concrete policy options for sustaining economic growth while delivering economic security for the elderly are the...

  13. The uncertainty of future water supply adequacy in megacities: Effects of population growth and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2013-12-01

    Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.

  14. The Future Demand for Long-term Carers in Germany: Model Calculations for the Federal Länder until 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carsten Pohl

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The increase in the birth rate shortfall, at the same time as an increase in life expectancy, will lead to more elderly people living in Germany in future, in both relative and absolute terms. The possible development in the demand for professional long-term carers until 2020 for the individual Federal Länder is illustrated in this essay using model calculations. Because of the differences in demographic change between the Federal Länder, the labour market for long-term care will develop heterogeneously in the federal territory as a whole. The increase in the number of persons in need of long-term care from its current level of 2.25 million to a forecast level of 2.9 million by 2020 will mean that professional long-term care in particular will continue to become more significant in Germany as a whole. The demand for long-term carers (in full-time equivalent posts could increase from its current level of 561,000 to up to 900,000 by 2020. The actual development on the professional labour market will however be heavily dependent on the commitment of care-giving relatives. Additionally, possible productivity advances in the provision of long-term care services will play a role, as can be shown in various scenarios of the model calculations.

  15. Alkaline electrolyzer and V2G system DIgSILENT models for demand response analysis in future distribution networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diaz de Cerio Mendaza, Iker; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Chen, Zhe

    2013-01-01

    Grid instabilities originated by unsteady generation, characteristic consequence of some renewable energy resources such as wind and solar power, claims for new power balance solutions in largely penetrated systems. Denmark's solid investment in these energy sources has awaked a need of rethinking...... about the future control and operation of the power system. A widespread idea to face these challenges is to have a flexible demand easily adjustable to the system variations. Electrothermal loads, electric vehicles and hydrogen generation are among the most mentioned technologies capable to respond......, under certain strategies, to these variations. This paper presents two DIgSILENT PowerFactory models: an alkaline electrolyzer and a vehicle to the grid system. The models were performed using DIgSILENT Simulation Language, aiming to be used for long-term distribution systems simulations. Two voltage...

  16. Lithium for future technologies. Demand and supply with special regard to electro-mobility; Lithium fuer Zukunftstechnologien. Nachfrage und Angebot unter besonderer Beruecksichtigung der Elektromobilitaet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angerer, Gerhard; Marscheider-Weidemann, Frank; Wendl, Matthias; Wietschel, Martin

    2009-12-15

    The availability of the necessary commodities for electric vehicles with regard to their high market growth predictions is currently a frequent theme of controversial discussions. At this the mineral Lithium, which is used in vehicle batteries, is in the point of interest. An estimation of the worldwide Lithium (Li)-consumption and -supply to the year 2050 was established in this study with the goal of analysing whether significant resource shortages are in fact to be expected. A calculation model was therefore developed, which estimates the future Li-demand using the 2008 consumption of the main Li-consumers such as the glass- und ceramics- industry or lubricants and their respective industry growth rate predictions. As the vehicle battery market can dominate the future Li-demand its development was examined in detail using two market penetration scenarios. Moreover the amount of secondary Lithium which can be recovered through recycling was determined via collection and recycling-quotas. In the, concerning the future number of electric vehicles, moderate Pluralismus-scenario about 51 % of the world Lithium-reserves will be consumed in 2050 under consideration of the employment of recycled material. At this a rather low assumption of the Li-reserves was applied. The gained amount of secondary Lithium covers about 25 % of the total Li-demand which underlines the importance of recycling. In the second scenario which displays a quick and thorough market penetration of electric vehicles the Lithium-reserves are already exhausted in 2045 in spite of the recirculation of secondary-material. The reserves comprise the Li-supplies within the lithosphere which can be recovered under current commodity prices and state-of-the-art technical possibilities. Based on a (USGS, 2009) estimation they amount to 6 Mio. t. Lithium. The resources on the other hand also contain known sources which can't be economically exploited at the moment. They amount to approx. 14 Mio. t

  17. Climate variability and demand growth as drivers of water scarcity in the Turkwel river basin: a bottom-up risk assessment of a data-sparse basin in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirpa, F. A.; Dyer, E.; Hope, R.; Dadson, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    Sustainable water management and allocation are essential for maintaining human well-being, sustaining healthy ecosystems, and supporting steady economic growth. The Turkwel river basin, located in north-western Kenya, experiences a high level of water scarcity due to its arid climate, high rainfall variability, and rapidly growing water demand. However, due to sparse hydro-climatic data and limited literature, the water resources system of the basin has been poorly understood. Here we apply a bottom-up climate risk assessment method to estimate the resilience of the basin's water resources system to growing demand and climate stressors. First, using a water resource system model and historical climate data, we construct a climate risk map that depicts the way in which the system responds to climate change and variability. Then we develop a set of water demand scenarios to identify the conditions that potentially lead to the risk of unmet water demand and groundwater depletion. Finally, we investigate the impact of climate change and variability by stress testing these development scenarios against historically strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years and future climate projections from multiple Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The results reveal that climate variability and increased water demand are the main drivers of water scarcity in the basin. Our findings show that increases in water demand due to expanded irrigation and population growth exert the strongest influence on the ability of the system to meet water resource supply requirements, and in all cases considered increase the impacts of droughts caused by future climate variability. Our analysis illustrates the importance of combining analysis of future climate risks with other development decisions that affect water resources planning. Policy and investment decisions which maximise water use efficiency in the present day are likely to impart resilience to climate change and variability under a

  18. Multiple policies to enhance prescribing efficiency for established medicines in Europe with a particular focus on demand-side measures: findings and future implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian eGodman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The appreciable growth in pharmaceutical expenditure has resulted in multiple initiatives across Europe to lower generic prices and enhance their utilisation. However, considerable variation in their use and prices. Objective: Assess the influence of multiple supply and demand-side initiatives across Europe for established medicines to enhance prescribing efficiency before a decision to prescribe a particular medicine. Subsequently utilise the findings to suggest potential future initiatives that countries could consider. Method: Analysis of different methodologies involving cross national and single country retrospective observational studies on reimbursed use and expenditure of PPIs, statins and renin-angiotensin inhibitor drugs among European countries. Results: Nature and intensity of the various initiatives appreciably influenced prescribing behaviour and expenditure, e.g. multiple measures resulted in reimbursed expenditure for PPIs in Scotland in 2010 56% below 2001 levels despite a 3 fold increase in utilisation and in the Netherlands, PPI expenditure fell by 58% in 2010 vs. 2000 despite a 3-fold increase in utilisation. A similarly picture was seen with prescribing restrictions, i.e. (i more aggressive follow-up of prescribing restrictions for patented statins and ARBs resulted in a greater reduction in the utilisation of patented statins in Austria vs. Norway and lower utilisation of patented ARBs vs. generic ACEIs in Croatia than Austria. However, limited impact of restrictions on esomeprazole in Norway with the first prescription or recommendation in hospital where restrictions do not apply. Similar findings when generic losartan became available in Western Europe. Conclusions: Multiple demand-side measures are needed to influence prescribing patterns. When combined with supply-side measures, activities can realise appreciable savings. Health authorities cannot rely on a ‘spill over’ effect between classes to affect

  19. Uncooled infrared sensors: rapid growth and future perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balcerak, Raymond S.

    2000-07-01

    The uncooled infrared cameras are now available for both the military and commercial markets. The current camera technology incorporates the fruits of many years of development, focusing on the details of pixel design, novel material processing, and low noise read-out electronics. The rapid insertion of cameras into systems is testimony to the successful completion of this 'first phase' of development. In the military market, the first uncooled infrared cameras will be used for weapon sights, driver's viewers and helmet mounted cameras. Major commercial applications include night driving, security, police and fire fighting, and thermography, primarily for preventive maintenance and process control. The technology for the next generation of cameras is even more demanding, but within reach. The paper outlines the technology program planned for the next generation of cameras, and the approaches to further enhance performance, even to the radiation limit of thermal detectors.

  20. News Related to Future GDP Growth as a Risk Factor in Equity Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Vassalou, Maria

    2001-01-01

    A model that includes a factor that captures news related to future Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth along with the market factor can explain the cross-section of equity returns about as well as the Fama-French model can. Furthermore, the Fama-French factors HML and SMB appear to contain mainly news related to future GDP growth. When news related to future GDP growth is present in the asset-pricing model, HML and SMB lose their ability to explain the cross-section.

  1. Energy demand, economic growth, and energy efficiency - the Bakun dam-induced sustainable energy policy revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keong, C.Y.

    2005-01-01

    In embarking on a dynamic course of economic development and industrial modernism, Malaysia sees the need to increase its electricity generation capacity through the development of a mega-dam project - the Bakun dam. Although hydroelectricity generation offers one of the benign options in accommodating the increasing energy consumption per capita in Malaysia, it is argued that the construction of Bakun's dam which involves a complete and irreversible destruction of 69,640 ha of old forest ecosystem remains a difficult and uncertain endeavour. It is further argued that apart from mega-dam technology, there are also other means to orchestrate a sustainable energy system in Malaysia. These include the implementation of demand and supply initiatives, such as the deployment of energy saving technology or influencing behavioral change towards a sustainable energy consumption pattern

  2. Veterinary Business Management Association presents program to aid future growth and stability of veterinary profession

    OpenAIRE

    Douglas, Jeffrey S.

    2008-01-01

    Spiraling veterinary student debt and the lack of a sustainable and profitable business model for many private practices in the modern business environment threaten the future growth and stability of the veterinary profession.

  3. Economic growth and the demand for dietary quality: Evidence from Russia during transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burggraf, Christine; Teuber, Ramona; Brosig, Stephan; Glauben, Thomas

    2015-12-01

    The increasing incidence of nutrition-related chronic diseases worldwide has raised people's awareness of dietary quality. Most existing studies on the topic of changing nutrition patterns measure dietary quality by single macronutrient indicators or anthropometric outcomes. However, such an approach is often too narrow to provide a picture of overall dietary quality and is sometimes even misleading. This study contributes to the existing literature by taking into account that the analysis of dietary quality comprises two dimensions: the adequate intake of vitamins and minerals, as well as the moderate intake of nutrients that increase the risk of chronic diseases. Thereby, we apply Grossman's health investment model to the analysis of the demand for dietary quality, explicitly addressing the different dimensions of dietary quality and the intertemporal character of health investments. We apply our approach to Russia using data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey from 1996 to 2008. Our results show that intake levels of vitamins and minerals as well as saturated and total fatty acids increased after 1998 along with economic recovery, while the intake of fiber decreased. Our econometric results imply an income elasticity of vitamins and minerals of 0.051, and an income elasticity of fats of 0.073. Overall, our results are in line with an ongoing nutrition transition in the Russian Federation, which is marked by decreasing deficiencies in vitamins and minerals, as well as the increasing consumption of fats with its accompanying negative health consequences. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Optimal balance between energy demand and onsite energy generation for robust net zero energy buildings considering future scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kotireddy, R.R.; Hoes, P.; Hensen, J.L.M.

    2015-01-01

    Net-zero energy buildings have usually very low energy demand, and consequently heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are designed and controlled to meet this low energy demand. However, a number of uncertainties in the building use, operation and external conditions such as

  5. World gas supply-demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rushby, I.L.

    1996-01-01

    The rapid growth in demand for natural gas from a global perspective is documented in this paper. Low prices compared to other fuels and a return to normal winter temperatures is argued to be the cause of this increase in consumption. Natural gas production and prices for 1995 are discussed and forecasts made for future years, in particular the prospects for LNG in Asia. Data on energy growth and gas specific information in world markets are included. (UK)

  6. Renewable energy: past trends and future growth in 2 degrees scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crijns-Graus, Wina

    2016-01-01

    This study explores past growth rates of renewable energy sources (1971-2012) and required future ones in 2 degrees scenarios. Results show that in spite of comparatively high growth of renewable energy in the period 2000-2012, the share of renewable energy in total energy use stayed the same (13%).

  7. THE FUTURE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: CERTAINTY AND UNCERTAINTY ILLUSION?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian Dan Pîrvu

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Starting from the concrete realities of the contemporary world reflected in the system of crises which affects the worldwide economy, the outlooks of economical growing and development, the poverty which includes a bigger percent of Earth’s population, the uncertainty about the future of economy, the existing article tries to offer answers at some stringent problems with which the humanity confronts. The global economical and financial crise triggered in 2008 is one of the components of the „bunch” of actual crises next to the ecological one, power, alimentary, water’s one and not least educational and moral crise. These crises manifest at the scale of the whole planet, but they have different degrees from a region to another, from a state to another. The main cause is, in our opinion, the human, the society in its ensemble, which in the effort of adancing, of a better life thought only in this spirit, neglecting the environment which has degraded more and more.

  8. Nutritional demands and metabolic characteristics of the DSIR-HA-1179 insect cell line during growth and infection with the Oryctes nudivirus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pushparajan, Charlotte; Claus, Juan Daniel; Marshall, Sean D G; Visnovsky, Gabriel

    2017-12-01

    The DSIR-HA-1179 coleopteran cell line has been identified as a susceptible and permissive host for the in vitro replication of the Oryctes nudivirus, which can be used as a biopesticide against the coconut rhinoceros beetle, pest of palms. The major challenge to in vitro large-scale Oryctes nudivirus production is ensuring process economy. This rests, among other requisites, on the use of low-cost culture media tailored to the nutritional and metabolic needs of the cell line, both in uninfected and infected cultures. The aim of the present study was to characterize the nutritional demands and the metabolic characteristics of the DSIR-HA-1179 cell line during growth and subsequent infection with Oryctes nudivirus in the TC-100 culture medium. Serum-supplementation of the culture medium was found to be critical for cell growth, and addition of 10% fetal bovine serum v/v led to a maximum viable cell density (16.8 × 10 5 cells ml -1 ) with a population doubling time of 4.2 d. Nutritional and metabolic characterization of the cell line revealed a trend of glucose and glutamine consumption but minimal uptake of other amino acids, negligible production of lactate and ammonia, and the accumulation of alanine, both before and after infection. The monitoring of virus production kinetics showed that the TC-100 culture medium was nutritionally sufficient to give a peak yield of 7.38 × 10 7 TCID 50 ml -1 of OrNV at the 6th day post-infection in attached cultures of DSIR-HA-1179 cells in 25 cm 2 T-flasks. Knowledge of the cell line's nutritional demands and virus production kinetics will aid in the formulation of a low-cost culture medium and better process design for large-scale OrNV production in future.

  9. The impact of ICT investment and energy price on industrial electricity demand: Dynamic growth model approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Youngsang; Lee, Jongsu; Kim, Tai-Yoo [Technology Management, Economics and Policy Program, College of Engineering, Seoul National University, Shillim-Dong San56-1, Gwanak-Ku, Seoul 151-742 (Korea)

    2007-09-15

    The authors investigate the effects of information and communications technology (ICT) investment, electricity price, and oil price on the consumption of electricity in South Korea's industries using a logistic growth model. The concept electricity intensity is used to explain electricity consumption patterns. An empirical analysis implies that ICT investment in manufacturing industries that normally consume relatively large amounts of electricity promotes input factor substitution away from the labor intensive to the electricity intensive. Moreover, results also suggest that ICT investment in some specific manufacturing sectors is conducive to the reduction of electricity consumption, whereas ICT investment in the service sector and most manufacturing sectors increases electricity consumption. It is concluded that electricity prices critically affect electricity consumption in half of South Korea's industrial sectors, but not in the other half, a finding that differs somewhat from previous research results. Reasons are suggested to explain why the South Korean case is so different. Policymakers may find this study useful, as it answers the question of whether ICT investment can ultimately reduce energy consumption and may aid in planning the capacity of South Korea's national electric power. (author)

  10. The impact of ICT investment and energy price on industrial electricity demand: Dynamic growth model approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Youngsang; Lee, Jongsu; Kim, Tai-Yoo

    2007-01-01

    The authors investigate the effects of information and communications technology (ICT) investment, electricity price, and oil price on the consumption of electricity in South Korea's industries using a logistic growth model. The concept electricity intensity is used to explain electricity consumption patterns. An empirical analysis implies that ICT investment in manufacturing industries that normally consume relatively large amounts of electricity promotes input factor substitution away from the labor intensive to the electricity intensive. Moreover, results also suggest that ICT investment in some specific manufacturing sectors is conducive to the reduction of electricity consumption, whereas ICT investment in the service sector and most manufacturing sectors increases electricity consumption. It is concluded that electricity prices critically affect electricity consumption in half of South Korea's industrial sectors, but not in the other half, a finding that differs somewhat from previous research results. Reasons are suggested to explain why the South Korean case is so different. Policymakers may find this study useful, as it answers the question of whether ICT investment can ultimately reduce energy consumption and may aid in planning the capacity of South Korea's national electric power. (author)

  11. The world energy demand in 2006: Confirmed increase in energy consumptions in a context of soaring crude oil prices; but economic growth is twice faster - June, 10 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chateau, Bertrand

    2007-01-01

    Confirmed increase in energy consumptions in a context of soaring crude oil prices; but economic growth is twice faster. According to the latest estimates by Enerdata, The world energy demand growth remains sustained in 2006, but twice slower than the GDP's growth, probably due to high energy prices on the international market. Oil: The oil demand, very captive, confirms once again its low elasticity to prices. 71% of the world oil product demand is concentrated on transport and petro-chemical sectors (77% in Europe, +13 points since 1990; 89% in North America). Gas/Electricity: Gas demand growth in 2006 is driven by Asia and the CIS, obvious price effects in the European Union. The CIS regains its position in the world production growth (22% in 2006 against 13% in 2005 and 33% in 2004). The power generation growth is more and more dominated by China and other Asian countries. The world electricity demand increases in the same proportions as in 2005 and 2004: 4%/year. Coal: Coal accounts for half of the world increase in energy consumption in 2006. China still accounts for 72% of the coal consumption, India for 10%, the rest of Asia 8% the rest of the world 10%. (authors)

  12. MegaFlex Scale-Up Cost & Risk Reduction for >50kW Future Power Demands, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — As the MegaFlex solar array is scaled for power demands greater than 50kW over the next 20 years and deployed load requirements remain high or increase, advanced...

  13. The health literacy demands of electronic personal health records (e-PHRs): An integrative review to inform future inclusive research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemsley, Bronwyn; Rollo, Megan; Georgiou, Andrew; Balandin, Susan; Hill, Sophie

    2018-01-01

    To integrate the findings of research on electronic personal health records (e-PHRs) for an understanding of their health literacy demands on both patients and providers. We sought peer-reviewed primary research in English addressing the health literacy demands of e-PHRs that are online and allow patients any degree of control or input to the record. A synthesis of three theoretical models was used to frame the analysis of 24 studies. e-PHRs pose a wide range of health literacy demands on both patients and health service providers. Patient participation in e-PHRs relies not only on their level of education and computer literacy, and attitudes to sharing health information, but also upon their executive function, verbal expression, and understanding of spoken and written language. The multiple health literacy demands of e-PHRs must be considered when implementing population-wide initiatives for storing and sharing health information using these systems. The health literacy demands of e-PHRs are high and could potentially exclude many patients unless strategies are adopted to support their use of these systems. Developing strategies for all patients to meet or reduce the high health literacy demands of e-PHRs will be important in population-wide implementation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Estimation of Future Demand for Neutron-Transmutation-Doped Silicon Caused by Development of Hybrid Electric Vehicle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Myong Seop; Park, Sang Jun

    2008-01-01

    By using this doping method, silicon semiconductors with an extremely uniform dopant distribution can be produced. They are usually used for high power devices such as thyristor (SCR), IGBT, IGCT and GTO. Now, the demand for high power semiconductor devices has increased rapidly due to the rapid increase of the green energy technologies. Among them, the productions of hybrid cars or fuel cell engines are excessively increased to reduce the amount of discharged air pollution substances, such as carbon dioxide which causes global warming. It is known that the neutron-transmutation-doped floating-zone (FZ) silicon wafers are used in insulated-gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs) which control the speed of the electric traction motors equipped in hybrid or fuel cell vehicles. Therefore, inevitably, it can be supposed that the demand of the NTD silicon is considerably increased. However, it is considered likely that the irradiation capacity will not be large enough to meet the increasing demand. After all, the large irradiation capacity for NTD such as a reactor dedicated to the silicon irradiation will be constructed depending on the industrial demand for NTD silicon. In this work, we investigated the relationship between the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) industry and the NTD silicon production. Also, we surveyed the prospect for the production of the HEV. Then, we deduced the worldwide demand for the NTD silicon associated with the HEV production. This work can be utilized as the basic material for the construction of the new irradiation facility such as NTD-dedicated neutron source

  15. Demand specifying variables and current ventilation rate requirements with respect to the future use of voc sensing for dcv control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolarik, Jakub

    be also taken into account in the ventilation control. Recent development in gas sensing technology resulted in a new generation of relatively cheap and practically applicable sensors that can offer measurements of some of the pollutants mentioned above – mainly Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC......Demand Controlled Ventilation (DCV) is a well established principle to provide a certain indoor environmental quality, defined both in the terms of air quality and thermal comfort. This is accomplished by adjusting the supplied airflow rate according to a certain demand indicator, which......). This seems to bring a new dimension into the control of DCV systems. This paper is a contribution to the workshop on utilization of VOC sensing technology used for DCV control. The aim of the paper is to provide a short review of different types of demand variables used to control DCV systems and summarize...

  16. Supply and demand perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trienekens, Pieter

    1999-01-01

    The outlook for the European gas market is one of steady growth. This growth will manifest itself in all regions and in all sectors of the market, but most strongly in the power generating sector. To meet future demand, it is necessary to bring gas to Western Europe from remote sources in Russia, North Africa and Norway. These new gas supplies require heavy investments in production and transportation, which can only be undertaken on the basis of long-term take-or-pay contracts. Famous examples of such contracts are the development of the Troll field, the Yamal-Europe pipeline connection, and the bringing on stream of Nigerian LNG for Europe. Tensions are likely to arise between the nature of these long-term gas contracts and the dynamic nature of demand in the gas market, and more specifically in the main growth market, the power sector. The presentation further elaborates on the tensions underlying supply and demand in the years to come

  17. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    OpenAIRE

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-01-01

    An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant p...

  18. Sustainable de-growth: Mapping the context, criticisms and future prospects of an emergent paradigm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Alier, Joan [Department of Economics and Economic History, Universidad Autonoma de Barcelona (Spain); Pascual, Unai [Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge (United Kingdom); Vivien, Franck-Dominique [Department of Economics, Universite de Reims Champagne Ardenne (France); Zaccai, Edwin [Institute for Environmental Management and Land Planning, Universite Libre de Bruxelles (Belgium)

    2010-07-15

    'Sustainable de-growth' is both a concept and a social-grassroots (Northern) movement with its origins in the fields of ecological economics, social ecology, economic anthropology and environmental and social activist groups. This paper introduces the concept of sustainable de-growth by mapping some of the main intellectual influences from these fields, with special focus on the Francophone and Anglophone thinking about this emergent notion. We propose hypotheses pertaining to the appeal of sustainable de-growth, and compare it to the messages enclosed within the dominant sustainable development idea. We scrutinize the theses, contradictions, and consequences of sustainable de-growth thinking as it is currently being shaped by a heterogeneous body of literature and as it interacts with an ample and growing corpus of social movements. We also discuss possible future paths for the de-growth movement compared to the apparent weakening of the sustainable development paradigm. (author)

  19. The Future of television is personalized : analysis of the internet streaming platform NRK on demand : a public broadcast study

    OpenAIRE

    Sørlie, Ida Elisabeth

    2014-01-01

    Portraying a public broadcasters’ digital challenge, the thesis presents an analysis of the new reality, which is disrupting the world of media, entertainment and news. Targeting the dilemmas of the Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation, NRK, it seeks to offer alternatives for maximizing their public service mandate through their On Demand platform. Discussing its strengths and weaknesses, this thesis presents a proposal for the next strategic step of public service broadcasters: ...

  20. Economic growth and energy demand in Brazil from 1930 to 1980; Crescimento economico e demanda de energia no Brasil de 1930 a 1980

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Theis, I M

    1988-10-01

    There are enough evidences that economic growth and energy demand are closely related indeed. These evidences show that the growth of the economic activity calls for greater energy inputs. The Brazilian case is similar to the other industrialized economies, in spite of our industrialization process being started only in the 1930. Two periods excelled as phases of quick and accelerated growth of the Economic Product: the later fifties and the famous miracle from 1968 to 1973. During those periods the demand for energy in Brazil increased to amounts previously unthinkable. More remarkable, however, is that, after those phases of accelerated growth, Brazilian economy had changed the consumption profile considerably: while, until 1968 firewood was the most important resource, since then petroleum has taken this position. (author). 213 refs, 115 tabs.

  1. Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

    2016-04-01

    Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing

  2. Implications of individual growth status on the future sex of the European eel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmgren, K.; Mosegaard, Henrik

    1996-01-01

    than females. Males also had lower length at weight than females, even in the smallest weight groups. Early growth status may influence the future sex of undifferentiated eels, but other approaches are needed for distinction between cause and effect. (C) 1996 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles....

  3. Severe cell reduction in the future brain cortex in human growth-restricted fetuses and infants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Samuelsen, Grethe B; Pakkenberg, Bente; Bogdanović, Nenad

    2007-01-01

    with controls. The daily increase in brain cells in the future cortex was only half of that of the controls. In the 3 other developmental zones, no significant differences in cell numbers could be demonstrated. CONCLUSIONS: IUGR in humans is associated with a severe reduction in cortical growth...

  4. [The status quo and future prospects of emergency medical service systems in Japan in view of the tight supply-demand situation for medical resources].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aruga, Tohru

    2016-02-01

    Considering the tight supply-demand situation for medical resources contributing to emergency medical service(EMS) systems at present and in the future in Japan, the author has explained the present states and future prospects of EMS systems in our country. EMS in remote places in this country is now consisting of the concentration of limited human resources, and is therefore suggestive of the EMS systems in the future, because we will have to deal with the possible exhaustion of EMS in our superannuated society progressing now and in the future. And also EMS systems will have to be maintained in the future with concerted efforts of all the medical staffs. The transferring the medical doctors' tasks to those of nurses and other staffs, that is to say the task shifting has just authorized by recent laws, and so the task shifting will be useful in the future EMS systems performed by all kinds of medical workers, in whom general physicians will be included as they are to be distributed throughout this country in the future.

  5. Coal demand and trade - growth and structural change in a competitive world market; Popyt i handel weglem - wzrost i zmiany strukturalne na konkurencyjnym rynku swiatowym

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copley, C. [World Coal Institute, London (United Kingdom)

    2004-07-01

    The article presents an overview of global demand and trade in hard coal (steam and coking). Coal demand has grown steadily over the past thirty years but coal trade has and will continue to grow at a faster rate. Transport contributes a relatively high proportion to the final price. Demand growth is strongest in countries with limited resources while production is declining in some countries with mature mining industries. There is a shift to demand in Asian markets. Spot contracts and tender transactions are replacing long-term contracts and e-commerce is developing. Prices are expected to remain stable, relative to those of oil and gas. China is expected to remain the world's second longest supplier of coal. 9 refs., 13 figs.

  6. Divers of Passenger Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Wittmer, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    -Overview drivers of passenger demand -Driver 1: Economic growth in developing countries -Driver 2: International business travel in developed countries -Driver 3: International leisure travel in developed countries

  7. Impacts of compact growth and electric vehicles on future air quality and urban exposures may be mixed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Haofei; Stuart, Amy L

    2017-01-15

    'Smart' growth and electric vehicles are potential solutions to the negative impacts of worldwide urbanization on air pollution and health. However, the effects of planning strategies on distinct types of pollutants, and on human exposures, remain understudied. The goal of this work was to investigate the potential impacts of alternative urban designs for the area around Tampa, Florida USA, on emissions, ambient concentrations, and exposures to oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), 1,3-butadiene, and benzene. We studied three potential future scenarios: sprawling growth, compact growth, and 100% vehicle fleet electrification with compact growth. We projected emissions in the seven-county region to 2050 based on One Bay regional visioning plan data. We estimated pollutant concentrations in the county that contains Tampa using the CALPUFF dispersion model. We applied residential population projections to forecast acute (highest hour) and chronic (annual average) exposure. The compact scenario was projected to result in lower regional emissions of all pollutants than sprawl, with differences of -18%, -3%, and -14% for NO x , butadiene, and benzene, respectively. Within Hillsborough County, the compact form also had lower emissions, concentrations, and exposures than sprawl for NO x (-16%/-5% for acute/chronic exposures, respectively), but higher exposures for butadiene (+41%/+30%) and benzene (+21%/+9%). The addition of complete vehicle fleet electrification to the compact scenario mitigated these in-county increases for the latter pollutants, lowering predicted exposures to butadiene (-25%/-39%) and benzene (-5%/-19%), but also resulted in higher exposures to NO x (+81%/+30%) due to increased demand on power plants. These results suggest that compact forms may have mixed impacts on exposures and health. 'Smart' urban designs should consider multiple pollutants and the diverse mix of pollutant sources. Cleaner power generation will also likely be needed to support aggressive

  8. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-07-01

    Full Text Available An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

  9. Sluggish growth of World energy demand in 2011. Sharp demand decrease in most OECD countries, largely compensated by a healthy Chinese market. Enerdata analyses the trends in energy demand, based on its 2011 data for G20 countries, May 24, 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    Analysis of the energy consumption in 2011 of major countries by Enerdata, based on our global energy database. The energy consumption growth in the G20 slowed down to 2% in 2011, after the strong increase of 2010. The economic crisis is largely responsible for this slow growth. For several years now, the world energy demand is characterized by the bullish Chinese and Indian markets, while developed countries struggle with stagnant economies, high oil prices, resulting in stable or decreasing energy consumption. (authors)

  10. The pharmacist Aggregate Demand Index to explain changing pharmacist demand over a ten-year period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, Katherine K; Shah, Bijal M; Barnett, Mitchell J

    2010-12-15

    To describe Aggregate Demand Index (ADI) trends from 1999-2010; to compare ADI time trends to concurrent data for US unemployment levels, US entry-level pharmacy graduates, and US retail prescription growth rate; and to determine which variables were significant predictors of ADI. Annual ADI data (dependent variable) were analyzed against annual unemployment rates, annual number of pharmacy graduates, and annual prescription growth rate (independent variables). ADI data trended toward lower demand levels for pharmacists since late 2006, paralleling the US economic downturn. National ADI data were most highly correlated with unemployment (p demand. Predictable increases in future graduates and other factors support revisiting the modeling process as new data accumulate.

  11. Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

    2018-03-06

    The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

  12. Future of Water Supply and Demand in the Middle Drâa Valley, Morocco, under Climate and Land Use Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene M. Johannsen

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Regions of scarce fresh water resources, such as the Middle East and North Africa, are facing great challenges already today, and even more in the future, due to climatic and socioeconomic changes. The Middle Drâa valley in Morocco is one of many semi-arid to arid mountainous areas struggling with increasing water scarcity threatening self-sufficient husbandry. In order to maintain people’s livelihoods water management needs to be adapted. The Water Evaluation And Planning System (WEAP software has been widely used to examine complex water systems in the water resource planning sector all around the world and proved to be a helpful asset to show the various interactions of water supply and demand. This paper presents the application of WEAP on the Middle Draâ valley’s water demand and supply, including several socioeconomic and land use scenarios under one basic climate change scenario. The climate scenario shows a significant decrease in available water resources up to 2029 while all socioeconomic scenarios show an increase in water demand. In years of droughts groundwater is used for irrigation, leading to increasingly depleted aquifers. The aquifers are recharged by percolation losses from irrigation and by river bed infiltration the latter of which is stronger in the northern oases than in the southern oases due to water withdrawal rules. A drastic reduction of irrigated agricultural area is the only solution to guarantee sustainable water use.

  13. Uranium supply/demand projections to 2030 in the OECD/NEA-IAEA ''Red Book''. Nuclear growth projections, global uranium exploration, uranium resources, uranium production and production capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vance, Robert

    2009-01-01

    World demand for electricity is expected to continue to grow rapidly over the next several decades to meet the needs of an increasing population and economic growth. The recognition by many governments that nuclear power can produce competitively priced, base load electricity that is essentially free of greenhouse gas emissions, combined with the role that nuclear can play in enhancing security of energy supplies, has increased the prospects for growth in nuclear generating capacity. Since the mid-1960s, with the co-operation of their member countries and states, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have jointly prepared periodic updates (currently every 2 years) on world uranium resources, production and demand. These updates have been published by the OECD/NEA in what is commonly known as the ''Red Book''. The 2007 edition replaces the 2005 edition and reflects information current as of 1 st January 2007. Uranium 2007: Resources, Production and Demand presents, in addition to updated resource figures, the results of a recent review of world uranium market fundamentals and provides a statistical profile of the world uranium industry. It contains official data provided by 40 countries (and one Country Report prepared by the IAEA Secretariat) on uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements to 2030 as well as a discussion of long-term uranium supply and demand issues are also presented. (orig.)

  14. Nitrogen use in the global food system: past trends and future trajectories of agronomic performance, pollution, trade, and dietary demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lassaletta, Luis; Billen, Gilles; Garnier, Josette; Bouwman, Lex; Velazquez, Eduardo; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Gerber, James S.

    2016-09-01

    Nitrogen (N) limits crop and grass production, and it is an essential component of dietary proteins. However, N is mobile in the soil-plant system and can be lost to the environment. Estimates of N flows provide a critical tool for understanding and improving the sustainability and equity of the global food system. This letter describes an integrated analysis of changes in N in human diets, N use efficiency (NUE) of cropping and livestock systems, N pollution and N in traded food and feed products for 12 world regions for the period 1960-2050. The largest absolute change in consumption of animal proteins during the period 1960-2009 is seen in China, while the largest share of animal protein per capita is currently observed in North America, Europe and Oceania. Due to the substantial growth of the livestock sector, about three quarters of contemporary global crop production (expressed in protein and including fodder crops and bioenergy byproducts) is allocated to livestock. Trends and levels of NUE and N surpluses in crop production are also diverse, as some regions show soil N depletion (developing regions, e.g. Africa), improving efficiency (industrialized regions, e.g. USA and Europe) and excessive N use (e.g. China, India). Global trade between the 12 regions has increased by a factor of 7.5 for vegetable proteins and by a factor of 10 for animal proteins. The scenarios for 2050 demonstrate that it would be possible to feed the global population in 2050 with moderate animal protein consumption but with much less N pollution, and less international trade than today. In such a scenario, optimal allocation of N inputs among regions to maximize NUE would further decrease pollution, but would require increased levels of N trade comparable to those in a BAU scenario.

  15. Domestic demand for petroleum in OPEC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakravorty, U.; Fesharaki, F.; Zhou, S.

    2000-01-01

    The literature on OPEC energy policy has focused primarily on its production and export potential. The rapidly increasing domestic demand for petroleum products in OPEC countries has often been ignored. This study estimates domestic demand for petroleum products by the major OPEC economies and forecasts consumption trends under alternative assumptions regarding economic growth and price deregulation. It concludes that product demand is generally price and income inelastic and thus domestic consumption in OPEC will continue to grow rapidly, even if domestic prices are raised closer to world levels in the near future

  16. Supplies should match growing demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmusen, H.J.

    1997-01-01

    The natural gas industry is currently enjoying healthy growth prospects. Not only is the demand for natural gas steadily growing; the outlook for increasing gas reserves is promising as well. The success of natural gas in the marketplace reflects, on one hand, continuous attention paid to public and customer requirements and, on the other hand, the ability of the gas industry to direct technological developments toward the increasing public demand for gas at competitive market prices supplied in a reliable, safe and environmentally friendly manner. In the past, the gas industry has been involved in the development of technologies for everything from gas production to the end user and from borehole to burner tip, and the author believes that the industry must continue or even increase its emphasis on technology in the future in order to capture new market opportunities. He explains this by looking at the supply side, the demand side and the structural side of the business

  17. Nuclear energy acceptance and potential role to meet future energy demand. Which technical/scientific achievements are needed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenkel, Roland

    2012-06-01

    25 years after Chernobyl, the Fukushima disaster has changed the perspectives of nuclear power. The disaster has shed a negative light on the independence, reliability and rigor of the national nuclear regulator and plant operator and the usefulness of the international IAEA guidelines on nuclear safety. It has become clear that, in the light of the most severe earthquake in the history of Japan, the plants at Fukushima Daiichi were not adequately protected against tsunamis. Nuclear acceptance has suffered enormously and has changed the perspectives of nuclear energy dramatically in countries that have a very risk-sensitive population, Germany is an example. The paper analyses the reactions in major countries and the expected impact on future deployment of reactors and on R&D activities. On the positive side, the disaster has demonstrated a remarkable robustness of most of the 14 reactors closest to the epicentre of the Tohoku Seaquake although not designed to an event of level 9.0. Public acceptance can only be regained with a rigorous and worldwide approach towards inherent reactor safety and design objectives that limit the impact of severe accidents to the plant itself (like many of the new Gen III reactors). A widespread release of radioactivity and the evacuation (temporary or permanent) of the population up to 30 km around a facility are simply not acceptable. Several countries have announced to request more stringent international standards for reactor safety. The IAEA should take this move forward and intensify and strengthen the different peer review mission schemes. The safety guidelines and peer reviews should in fact become legally binding for IAEA members. The paper gives examples of the new safety features developed over the last 20 years and which yield much safer reactors with lesser burden to the environment under severe accident conditions. The compatibility of these safety systems with the current concepts for fusion-fission hybrids, which have

  18. Nuclear energy acceptance and potential role to meet future energy demand. Which technical/scientific achievements are needed?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schenkel, Roland [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Transuranium Elements, Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1,76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

    2012-06-19

    25 years after Chernobyl, the Fukushima disaster has changed the perspectives of nuclear power. The disaster has shed a negative light on the independence, reliability and rigor of the national nuclear regulator and plant operator and the usefulness of the international IAEA guidelines on nuclear safety. It has become clear that, in the light of the most severe earthquake in the history of Japan, the plants at Fukushima Daiichi were not adequately protected against tsunamis. Nuclear acceptance has suffered enormously and has changed the perspectives of nuclear energy dramatically in countries that have a very risk-sensitive population, Germany is an example. The paper analyses the reactions in major countries and the expected impact on future deployment of reactors and on R and D activities. On the positive side, the disaster has demonstrated a remarkable robustness of most of the 14 reactors closest to the epicentre of the Tohoku Seaquake although not designed to an event of level 9.0. Public acceptance can only be regained with a rigorous and worldwide approach towards inherent reactor safety and design objectives that limit the impact of severe accidents to the plant itself (like many of the new Gen III reactors). A widespread release of radioactivity and the evacuation (temporary or permanent) of the population up to 30 km around a facility are simply not acceptable. Several countries have announced to request more stringent international standards for reactor safety. The IAEA should take this move forward and intensify and strengthen the different peer review mission schemes. The safety guidelines and peer reviews should in fact become legally binding for IAEA members. The paper gives examples of the new safety features developed over the last 20 years and which yield much safer reactors with lesser burden to the environment under severe accident conditions. The compatibility of these safety systems with the current concepts for fusion-fission hybrids, which

  19. The Effect of No Agricultural Productivity Growth on Future Land Use and Climate through Biogeophysical Mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies-Barnard, T.; Valdes, P. J.; Singarayer, J. S.; Jones, C.

    2012-12-01

    Future land use and the consequent land cover change will have a significant impact on future climate through biogeophysical (albedo, surface roughness and latent heat transfer, etc.) as well as biogeochemical (greenhouse gas emissions etc.) mechanisms. One of the major determinants of the extent of land use induced land cover change is the agricultural productivity growth within the socio-economic models used for developing the RCP scenarios. There are considerable uncertainties in the size of agricultural productivity under climate change, as yields are projected to vary spatially in signal and strength. Previous climate modeling work has considered the impacts to the carbon cycle of different levels of agricultural productivity growth, but has failed to consider the biogeophysical effects of the land use induced land cover change on climate. Here we examine the climate impacts of the assumption of agricultural productivity growth and business as usual land use. The effects are considered through the biogeophysical land use induced land cover change, using the Hadley Centre climate model HadGEM2. The model simulations use the set biogeochemical climate forcing of the RCP 4.5 scenario, but the biogeophysical land use change specification is altered over a 100 year simulation. Simulations are run with combinations of no land use change; standard RCP 4.5 land use change; business as usual land use change; and zero agricultural productivity growth. The key effect of no agricultural productivity growth is that more cropland is required to feed the same population, necessitating cropland expansion. The expansion of cropland and consequent deforestation increases the albedo and gives an extensive cooling effect in the northern hemisphere (up to 2°C). Differences in global mean temperature between the zero agricultural productivity growth with business as usual land use change specified run and the standard RCP 4.5 run are -0.2°C by 2040 and -0.7°C by 2100. There is

  20. Policy impact of the Indonesian Central Bank certificate related on loan interest rate to the demand growth of property

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirjodirdjo, B.; Asjari, H. Y.

    2018-04-01

    The Indonesian economic indicators shown a positive progress in the last three years, Foreign exchange reserves position of the end of March 2017 stood at US 121.8 billion higher than the position of the end of 2015 amounted to US 105.9 billion of the end of 2015. This reserve would ensure the resilience and maintaining sustainable Indonesian economic growth in the future. Although Indonesia’s foreign exchange is better, the structure of expenditure in the country is still less than ideal due the proportion of spending of consumer goods is far greater than the capital goods and tend to be unproductive spending. This needs to be regulated so that in the long term does not cause balance of payments deficit. Therefore, Indonesian Central Bank took a policy to raise interest rates for retail banks from 6% to 7.25% per annum gradually up to present. Policies relating to the interest rates on loans are intended to reduce the proportion of debt financing of consumer goods, however, these policies have implications to various economic sectors and one of those is property sector. A lot of research has been conducted related the impact of loan interest to the property sector but most of it is still in partial related to the ability the people to buy. However, this research has tried to see the implication of the macro Economic Policy of Indonesian Central Bank to the property sector as a systemic problem. This paper is going to present the study on the effects of these policies on the property sector, especially residence house. To obtain a comprehensive analysis and capture the relationship between interest rate policies and their impacts to the property sector, in this study the model developed and simulated using system dynamic methodology as an approach. Various scenarios are applied to the model to get an accurate information about how and when the effectiveness of the policy related to the property sector can be enforced. The result of this study can be delivered to

  1. Limits to growth in organic sales : price elasticity of consumer demand for organic food in Dutch supermarkets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bunte, F.H.J.; Galen, van M.A.; Kuiper, W.E.; Bakker, J.H.

    2007-01-01

    This report determines how sensitive consumer demand for organic products is to changes in the prices of organic products. The report is based on the analysis of scanner data for supermarkets in ten Dutch communities. In the framework of the analysis, an experiment has been performed in which the

  2. Decomposing the impact of alternative technology sets on future carbon emissions growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Schu, Kathryn; Sue Wing, Ian; Calvin, Katherine

    2012-01-01

    What are the drivers of future global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions growth and how would the availability of key energy supply technologies change their relative importance? In this paper, we apply a novel index number decomposition technique to the results of a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model to quantify the influence of five factors on the growth of future carbon emissions: (1) growth in global economic activity; (2) shifts in the regional composition of gross world product; (3) shifts in the sectoral composition of regions' GDP; (4) changes in sectors' energy–output ratios; and (5) changes in the CO 2 intensity of energy sources. We elucidate how the relative importance of these factors changes in response to the imposition of a global carbon tax and alternative assumptions about the future availability of key energy supply technologies. Rising global economic activity and shifts in regional composition put upward pressure on emissions while changes in energy and emission intensity and the sectoral output mix have attenuating effects. A global emission tax that increases over time slows economic expansion and shifts the fuel mix, with the most pronounced impacts on China, India, and Russia. Limited availability of carbon capture and storage, nuclear, and hydroelectric generation all lead to upward shifts in the long-run marginal abatement cost curve, causing some countries to choose to pay the tax rather than abate. - Highlights: ► Index number decomposition is used to quantify the influence of five factors. ► The relative importance of these factors in response to alternative assumptions is measured. ► A global emission tax that increases over time slows economic expansion and shifts the fuel mix. ► Limited technology availability mean some countries to choose to pay the tax rather than abate.

  3. Endocrine regulation of fetal skeletal muscle growth: impact on future metabolic health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Laura D.

    2014-01-01

    Establishing sufficient skeletal muscle mass is essential for lifelong metabolic health. The intrauterine environment is a major determinant of the muscle mass that is present for the life course of an individual, because muscle fiber number is set at the time of birth. Thus, a compromised intrauterine environment from maternal nutrient restriction or placental insufficiency that restricts development of muscle fiber number can have permanent effects on the amount of muscle an individual will live with. Reduced muscle mass due to fewer muscle fibers persists even after compensatory or “catch up” postnatal growth occurs. Furthermore, muscle hypertrophy can only partially compensate for this limitation in fiber number. Compelling associations link low birth weight and decreased muscle mass to future insulin resistance, which can drive the development of the metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes, and risk for cardiovascular events later in life. There are gaps in knowledge about the origins of reduced muscle growth at the cellular level and how these patterns are set during fetal development. By understanding the nutrient and endocrine regulation of fetal skeletal muscle growth and development, we can direct research efforts towards improving muscle growth early in life in order to prevent the development of chronic metabolic disease later in life. PMID:24532817

  4. The current shortage and future surplus of doctors: a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takata, Hideaki; Nagata, Hiroshi; Nogawa, Hiroki; Tanaka, Hiroshi

    2011-05-27

    Starting in the late 1980s, the Japanese government decreased the number of students accepted into medical school each year in order to reduce healthcare spending. The result of this policy is a serious shortage of doctors in Japan today, which has become a social problem in recent years. In an attempt to solve this problem, the Japanese government decided in 2007 to increase the medical student quota from 7625 to 8848. Furthermore, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), Japan's ruling party after the 2009 election, promised in their manifesto to increase the medical student quota to 1.5 times what it was in 2007, in order to raise the number of medical doctors to more than 3.0 per 1000 persons. It should be noted, however, that this rapid increase in the medical student quota may bring about a serious doctor surplus in the future, especially because the population of Japan is decreasing.The purpose of this research is to project the future growth of the Japanese medical doctor workforce from 2008 to 2050 and to forecast whether the proposed additional increase in the student quota will cause a doctor surplus. Simulation modeling of the Japanese medical workforce. Even if the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ fails, the number of practitioners is projected to increase from 286 699 (2.25 per 1000 persons) in 2008 to 365 533 (over the national numerical goal of 3.0 per 1000) in 2024. The number of practitioners per 1000 persons is projected to further increase to 3.10 in 2025, to 3.71 in 2035, and to 4.69 in 2050. If the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ is realized, the total workforce is projected to rise to 392 331 (3.29 per 1000 persons) in 2025, 464 296 (4.20 per 1,000 persons) in 2035, and 545 230 (5.73 per 1000 persons) in 2050. The plan to increase the medical student quota will bring about a serious doctor surplus in the long run.

  5. Present and future water resources supply and demand in the Central Andes of Peru: a comprehensive review with focus on the Cordillera Vilcanota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drenkhan, Fabian; Huggel, Christian; Salzmann, Nadine; Giráldez, Claudia; Suarez, Wilson; Rohrer, Mario; Molina, Edwin; Montoya, Nilton; Miñan, Fiorella

    2014-05-01

    Glaciers have been an important element of Andean societies and livelihoods as direct freshwater supply for agriculture irrigation, hydropower generation and mining activities. Peru's mainly remotely living population in the Central Andes has to cope with a strong seasonal variation of precipitations and river runoff interannually superimposed by El Niño impacts. Direct glacier and lake water discharge thus constitute a vital continuous water supply and represent a regulating buffer as far as hydrological variability is concerned. This crucial buffer effect is gradually altered by accelerated glacier retreat which leads most likely to an increase of annual river runoff variability. Furthermore, a near-future crossing of the 'peak water' is expected, from where on prior enhanced streamflow decreases and levels out towards a new still unknown minimum discharge. Consequently, a sustainable future water supply especially during low-level runoff dry season might not be guaranteed whereas Peru's water demand increases significantly. Here we present a comprehensive review, the current conditions and perspectives for water resources in the Cusco area with focus on the Vilcanota River, Cordillera Vilcanota, Southern Peru. With 279 km2 the Cordillera Vilcanota represents the second largest glacierized mountain range of the tropics worldwide. Especially as of the second half of the 1980s, it has been strongly affected by massive ice loss with around 30% glacier area decline until present. Furthermore, glacier vanishing triggers the formation of new lakes and increase of lake levels and therefore constitutes determining hazardous drivers for mass movements related to deglaciation effects. The Vilcanota River still lacks more profound hydrological studies. It is likely that its peak water has already been or might be crossed in near-future. This has strong implications for the still at 0.9% (2.2%) annually growing population of the Cusco department (Cusco city). People mostly

  6. Opportunity for offshore wind to reduce future demand for coal-fired power plants in China with consequent savings in emissions of CO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xi; McElroy, Michael B; Chen, Xinyu; Kang, Chongqing

    2014-12-16

    Although capacity credits for wind power have been embodied in power systems in the U.S. and Europe, the current planning framework for electricity in China continues to treat wind power as a nondispatchable source with zero contribution to firm capacity. This study adopts a rigorous reliability model for the electric power system evaluating capacity credits that should be recognized for offshore wind resources supplying power demands for Jiangsu, China. Jiangsu is an economic hub located in the Yangtze River delta accounting for 10% of the total electricity consumed in China. Demand for electricity in Jiangsu is projected to increase from 331 TWh in 2009 to 800 TWh by 2030. Given a wind penetration level of 60% for the future additional Jiangsu power supply, wind resources distributed along the offshore region of five coastal provinces in China (Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Fujian) should merit a capacity credit of 12.9%, the fraction of installed wind capacity that should be recognized to displace coal-fired systems without violating the reliability standard. In the high-coal-price scenario, with 60% wind penetration, reductions in CO2 emissions relative to a business as usual reference could be as large as 200.2 million tons of CO2 or 51.8% of the potential addition, with a cost for emissions avoided of $29.0 per ton.

  7. The Pathologist Workforce in the United States: II. An Interactive Modeling Tool for Analyzing Future Qualitative and Quantitative Staffing Demands for Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robboy, Stanley J; Gupta, Saurabh; Crawford, James M; Cohen, Michael B; Karcher, Donald S; Leonard, Debra G B; Magnani, Barbarajean; Novis, David A; Prystowsky, Michael B; Powell, Suzanne Z; Gross, David J; Black-Schaffer, W Stephen

    2015-11-01

    Pathologists are physicians who make diagnoses based on interpretation of tissue and cellular specimens (surgical/cytopathology, molecular/genomic pathology, autopsy), provide medical leadership and consultation for laboratory medicine, and are integral members of their institutions' interdisciplinary patient care teams. To develop a dynamic modeling tool to examine how individual factors and practice variables can forecast demand for pathologist services. Build and test a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates about current and new pathologist efforts. Most pathologists' efforts focus on anatomic (52%), laboratory (14%), and other direct services (8%) for individual patients. Population-focused services (12%) (eg, laboratory medical direction) and other professional responsibilities (14%) (eg, teaching, research, and hospital committees) consume the rest of their time. Modeling scenarios were used to assess the need to increase or decrease efforts related globally to the Affordable Care Act, and specifically, to genomic medicine, laboratory consolidation, laboratory medical direction, and new areas where pathologists' expertise can add value. Our modeling tool allows pathologists, educators, and policy experts to assess how various factors may affect demand for pathologists' services. These factors include an aging population, advances in biomedical technology, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based medical care systems. In the future, pathologists will likely have to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practicing medicine to accommodate new value-based delivery models.

  8. Aggregated Demand Modelling Including Distributed Generation, Storage and Demand Response

    OpenAIRE

    Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Hill, David J.; Verbic, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    It is anticipated that penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems will increase further in the next decades mainly due to environmental issues. In the long term of several decades, which we refer to in terms of the future grid (FG), balancing between supply and demand will become dependent on demand actions including demand response (DR) and energy storage. So far, FG feasibility studies have not considered these new demand-side developments for modelling future demand. I...

  9. Predicting future blood supply and demand in Japan with a Markov model: application to the sex- and age-specific probability of blood donation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akita, Tomoyuki; Tanaka, Junko; Ohisa, Masayuki; Sugiyama, Aya; Nishida, Kazuo; Inoue, Shingo; Shirasaka, Takuma

    2016-11-01

    Simulation studies were performed to predict the future supply and demand for blood donations, and future shortfalls. Using data from all donations in 2006 to 2009, the Markov model was applied to estimate future blood donations until 2050. Based on data concerning the actual use of blood products, the number of blood products needed was estimated based on future population projections. We estimated that the number of blood donations increased from 5,020,000 in 2008 to 5,260,000 in 2012, but will decrease to 4,770,000 units by 2025. In particular, the number of donors in their 20s and 30s decreased every year. Moreover, the number of donations required to supply blood products would have been increased from 5,390,000 in 2012 to 5,660,000 units in 2025. Thus, the estimated shortfall of blood donations is expected to increase each year from 140,000 in 2012 to 890,000 in 2025 and then more than double to 1,670,000 in 2050. If the current blood donation behaviors continue, a shortfall of blood availability is likely to occur in Japan. Insufficient blood donations are mainly related to a projected reduction in population of 20 to 30 year olds, a significant group of donors. Thus, it is crucial to recruit and retain new donors and to develop recommendations for proper use of blood products to minimize unnecessary use. This study provides useful information that can be used by governments to help ensure the adequacy of the blood supply through promoting donations and conserving blood resources. © 2016 AABB.

  10. Uranium 2009 resources, production and demand

    CERN Document Server

    Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Paris

    2010-01-01

    With several countries currently building nuclear power plants and planning the construction of more to meet long-term increases in electricity demand, uranium resources, production and demand remain topics of notable interest. In response to the projected growth in demand for uranium and declining inventories, the uranium industry – the first critical link in the fuel supply chain for nuclear reactors – is boosting production and developing plans for further increases in the near future. Strong market conditions will, however, be necessary to trigger the investments required to meet projected demand. The "Red Book", jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a recognised world reference on uranium. It is based on information compiled in 40 countries, including those that are major producers and consumers of uranium. This 23rd edition provides a comprehensive review of world uranium supply and demand as of 1 January 2009, as well as data on global ur...

  11. Telecommunications energy and greenhouse gas emissions management for future network growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, Chien Aun; Gygax, André F.; Leckie, Christopher; Wong, Elaine; Nirmalathas, Ampalavanapillai; Hinton, Kerry

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Model to evaluate key interdependencies of a fast growing telecommunications network. • Network growth analysis using real data and Monte Carlo simulation. • Importance of both operational and embodied energy efficiency improvements. • Embodied energy expected to dominate in the future under current energy efficiency trends. • Carbon footprint and energy management through optimum network replacement cycle. - Abstract: A key aspect of greener network deployment is how to achieve sustainable growth of a telecommunications network, both in terms of operational and embodied energy. Hence, in this paper we investigate how the overall energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of a fast growing telecommunications network can be minimized. Due to the complexities in modeling the embodied energy of networks, this aspect of energy consumption has received limited attention by network operators. Here, we present the first model to evaluate the interdependencies of the four main contributing factors in managing the sustainable growth of a telecommunications network: (i) the network’s operational energy consumption; (ii) the embodied energy of network equipment; (iii) network traffic growth; and (iv) the expected energy efficiency improvements in both the operational and embodied phases. Using Monte Carlo techniques with real network data, our results demonstrate that under the current trends in overall energy efficiency improvements the network embodied energy will account for over 40% of the total network energy in 2025 compared to 20% in 2015. Further, we find that the optimum equipment replacement cycle, which will result in the lowest total network life cycle energy, is directly dependent on the technological progress in energy efficiency improvements of both operational and embodied phases. Our model and analysis highlight the need for a comprehensive approach to better understand the interactions between network growth, technological

  12. Controlling the Growth of Future LEO Debris Populations with Active Debris Removal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, J.-C.; Johnson, N. L.; Hill, N. M.

    2008-01-01

    Active debris removal (ADR) was suggested as a potential means to remediate the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment as early as the 1980s. The reasons ADR has not become practical are due to its technical difficulties and the high cost associated with the approach. However, as the LEO debris populations continue to increase, ADR may be the only option to preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations. An initial study was completed in 2007 to demonstrate that a simple ADR target selection criterion could be developed to reduce the future debris population growth. The present paper summarizes a comprehensive study based on more realistic simulation scenarios, including fragments generated from the 2007 Fengyun-1C event, mitigation measures, and other target selection options. The simulations were based on the NASA long-term orbital debris projection model, LEGEND. A scenario, where at the end of mission lifetimes, spacecraft and upper stages were moved to 25-year decay orbits, was adopted as the baseline environment for comparison. Different annual removal rates and different ADR target selection criteria were tested, and the resulting 200-year future environment projections were compared with the baseline scenario. Results of this parametric study indicate that (1) an effective removal strategy can be developed based on the mass and collision probability of each object as the selection criterion, and (2) the LEO environment can be stabilized in the next 200 years with an ADR removal rate of five objects per year.

  13. Future Food Production System Development Pulling From Space Biology Crop Growth Testing in Veggie

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massa, Gioia; Romeyn, Matt; Fritsche, Ralph

    2017-01-01

    Preliminary crop testing using Veggie indicates the environmental conditions provided by the ISS are generally suitable for food crop production. When plant samples were returned to Earth for analysis, their levels of nutrients were comparable to Earth-grown ground controls. Veggie-grown produce food safety microbiology analysis indicated that space-grown crops are safe to consume. Produce sanitizing wipes were used on-orbit to further reduce risk of foodborne illness. Validation growth tests indicated abiotic challenges of insufficient or excess fluid delivery, potentially reduced air flow leading to excess water, elevated CO2 leading to physiological responses, and microorganisms that became opportunistic pathogens. As NASA works to develop future space food production, several areas of research to define these systems pull from the Veggie technology validation tests. Research into effective, reusable water delivery and water recovery methods for future food production systems arises from abiotic challenges observed. Additionally, impacts of elevated CO2 and refinement of fertilizer and light recipes for crops needs to be assessed. Biotic pulls include methods or technologies to effectively sanitize produce with few consumables and low inputs; work to understand the phytomicrobiome and potentially use it to protect crops or enhance growth; selection of crops with high harvest index and desirable flavors for supplemental nutrition; crops that provide psychosocial benefits, and custom space crop development. Planning for future food production in a deep space gateway or a deep space transit vehicle requires methods of handling and storing seeds, and ensuring space seeds are free of contaminants and long-lived. Space food production systems may require mechanization and autonomous operation, with preliminary testing initiated to identify operations and capabilities that are candidates for automation. Food production design is also pulling from Veggie logistics

  14. Wood supply and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; David B. McKeever

    2011-01-01

    At times in history, there have been concerns that demand for wood (timber) would be greater than the ability to supply it, but that concern has recently dissipated. The wood supply and demand situation has changed because of market transitions, economic downturns, and continued forest growth. This article provides a concise overview of this change as it relates to the...

  15. Magnetic Waveform Measurements of the PS Injection Kicker KFA45 and Future Emittance Growth Estimates

    CERN Document Server

    Forte, Vincenzo; Ferrero Colomo, Alvaro; CERN. Geneva. ATS Department

    2018-01-01

    In the framework of the LHC Injectors Upgrade (LIU) project [1], this document summarises the beam-based measurement of the magnetic waveform of the PS injection kicker KFA45 [2], from data collected during several Machine Development (MD) sessions in 2016 and 2017. In the first part of the document, the measurement methodology is introduced and the results presented and compared with the specification required for a clean transfer of the bunches coming from the PSB after the upgrade. These measurements represent, to date, the only way to reconstruct the magnetic waveform. In the second part, kicker magnetic waveform PSpice®[3] simulations are compared and tuned to the measurements. Finally the simulated (validated through measurements) waveforms are used to estimate the future expected emittance growth for the different PS injection schemes, both for (LIU target) LHC and fixed target beams.

  16. Stability and Growth Pact – critical analysis and perspectives of the future development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Plaga

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This working paper seeks to define perspectives of the functioning of the Stability and Growth Pact as a tool for regulation of national fiscal policies through analysis and description of legal acts regarding the Pact and through analysis and statistical evaluation of the compliance of the EMU States with requirements for fiscal discipline. The first part brings the description of the Pact's functioning mechanism and defines its weaknesses (e.g. extensive role of the Council. The second part tries to analyse and statistically evaluate how the Member States complied with the provisions of the Pact during the years 1999-2003. The results are compared with the most mentioned shortcomings of the Pact. In the concluding part the paper discusses proposals for a change of the Pact and tries to estimate perspectives of its functioning in the future.

  17. North American oil demand outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart, M.B.

    1995-01-01

    An understanding of the relationship of economic growth and potential petroleum product demand is needed to forecast the potential for North American oil demand growth as well as knowledge of world supply and price. The bullish expectations for economic growth in the US and Canada auger well for North American refiners and marketeers. The growth in world economic output forecast, however, means a larger oil demand and an increase in OPEC's pricing power. Such price increases could depress North American oil demand growth. (author)

  18. Intra-annual dynamics of non-structural carbohydrates in the cambium of mature conifer trees reflects radial growth demands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simard, Sonia; Giovannelli, Alessio; Treydte, Kerstin; Traversi, Maria Laura; King, Gregory M; Frank, David; Fonti, Patrick

    2013-09-01

    The presence of soluble carbohydrates in the cambial zone, either from sugars recently produced during photosynthesis or from starch remobilized from storage organs, is necessary for radial tree growth. However, considerable uncertainties on carbohydrate dynamics and the consequences on tree productivity exist. This study aims to better understand the variation in different carbon pools at intra-annual resolution by quantifying how cambial zone sugar and starch concentrations fluctuate over the season and in relation to cambial phenology. A comparison between two physiologically different species growing at the same site, i.e., the evergreen Picea abies Karst. and the deciduous Larix decidua Mill., and between L. decidua from two contrasting elevations, is presented to identify mechanisms of growth limitation. Results indicate that the annual cycle of sugar concentration within the cambial zone is coupled to the process of wood formation. The highest sugar concentration is observed when the number of cells in secondary wall formation and lignification stages is at a maximum, subsequent to most radial growth. Starch disappears in winter, while other freeze-resistant non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) increase. Slight differences in NSC concentration between species are consistent with the differing climate sensitivity of the evergreen and deciduous species investigated. The general absence of differences between elevations suggests that the cambial activity of trees growing at the treeline was not limited by the availability of carbohydrates at the cambial zone but instead by environmental controls on the growing season duration.

  19. Electricity demand in Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atakhanova, Zauresh; Howie, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Properties of electricity demand in transition economies have not been sufficiently well researched mostly due to data limitations. However, information on the properties of electricity demand is necessary for policy makers to evaluate effects of price changes on different consumers and obtain demand forecasts for capacity planning. This study estimates Kazakhstan's aggregate demand for electricity as well as electricity demand in the industrial, service, and residential sectors using regional data. Firstly, our results show that price elasticity of demand in all sectors is low. This fact suggests that there is considerable room for price increases necessary to finance generation and distribution system upgrading. Secondly, we find that income elasticity of demand in the aggregate and all sectoral models is less than unity. Of the three sectors, electricity demand in the residential sector has the lowest income elasticity. This result indicates that policy initiatives to secure affordability of electricity consumption to lower income residential consumers may be required. Finally, our forecast shows that electricity demand may grow at either 3% or 5% per year depending on rates of economic growth and government policy regarding price increases and promotion of efficiency. We find that planned supply increases would be sufficient to cover growing demand only if real electricity prices start to increase toward long-run cost-recovery levels and policy measures are implemented to maintain the current high growth of electricity efficiency

  20. The Anatomy of Medium-Scale Farm Growth in Zambia: What Are the Implications for the Future of Smallholder Agriculture?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Sitko

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Lost in the debates about the appropriate scale of production to promote agricultural growth in Africa is the rapid expansion of medium-scale farmers. Using Zambia as a case study, this article explores the causes and consequences of this middle-tier transformation on the future of small-scale agriculture. Combining political economic analysis with household survey data, this article examines the relationships between the growth in medium-scale farmers and changing conditions of land access, inequality, and alienation for small-scale farmers. Growth of medium-scale farmers is associated with high land inequality and rapid land alienation in high potential agricultural areas. This growth is shown to be partially driven by wage earner investment in land acquisition and is leading to substantial under-utilization of agricultural land. These processes are both limiting agricultural growth potential and foreclosing future options for an inclusive agricultural development strategy.

  1. Urban Growth Dynamics in Perth, Western Australia: Using Applied Remote Sensing for Sustainable Future Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew MacLachlan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Earth observation data can provide valuable assessments for monitoring the spatial extent of (unsustainable urban growth of the world’s cities to better inform planning policy in reducing associated economic, social and environmental costs. Western Australia has witnessed rapid economic expansion since the turn of the century founded upon extensive natural resource extraction. Thus, Perth, the state capital of Western Australia, has encountered significant population and urban growth in response to the booming state economy. However, the recent economic slowdown resulted in the largest decrease in natural resource values that Western Australia has ever experienced. Here, we present multi-temporal urban expansion statistics from 1990 to 2015 for Perth, derived from Landsat imagery. Current urban estimates used for future development plans and progress monitoring of infill and density targets are based upon aggregated census data and metrics unrepresentative of actual land cover change, underestimating overall urban area. Earth observation provides a temporally consistent methodology, identifying areal urban area at higher spatial and temporal resolution than current estimates. Our results indicate that the spatial extent of the Perth Metropolitan Region has increased 45% between 1990 and 2015, over 320 km2. We highlight the applicability of earth observation data in accurately quantifying urban area for sustainable targeted planning practices.

  2. HEALTH CARE SPENDING GROWTH AND THE FUTURE OF U.S. TAX RATES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baicker, Katherine; Skinner, Jonathan S.

    2011-01-01

    The fraction of GDP devoted to health care in the United States is the highest in the world and rising rapidly. Recent economic studies have highlighted the growing value of health improvements, but less attention has been paid to the efficiency costs of tax-financed spending to pay for such improvements. This paper uses a life cycle model of labor supply, saving, and longevity improvement to measure the balanced-budget impact of continued growth in the Medicare and Medicaid programs. The model predicts that top marginal tax rates could rise to 70 percent by 2060, depending on the progressivity of future tax changes. The deadweight loss of the tax system is greater when the financing is more progressive. If the share of taxes paid by high-income taxpayers remains the same, the efficiency cost of raising the revenue needed to finance the additional health spending is $1.48 per dollar of revenue collected, and GDP declines (relative to trend) by 11 percent. A proportional payroll tax has a lower efficiency cost (41 cents per dollar of revenue averaged over all tax hikes, a 5 percent drop in GDP) but more than doubles the share of the tax burden borne by lower income taxpayers. Empirical support for the model comes from analysis of OECD country data showing that countries facing higher tax burdens in 1979 experienced slower health care spending growth in subsequent decades. The rising burden imposed by the public financing of health care expenditures may therefore serve as a brake on health care spending growth. PMID:21608156

  3. Sugar beet growth in a changing climate: past, present and future trends in southwest Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremer, Pascal; Fuchs, Hans-Joachim; Lang, Christian

    2017-04-01

    In the study, single factors and their impact on sugar beet cultivation against the background of past and projected climate change are being analyzed. The database consists of climate data by the German Weather Service and 1x1 km interpolated INTERMET raster data. Impact models were run to assess possible future trends using climate projection data of the REgional MOdel (REMO), emission scenario A1B, Run 1, data stream 2 for Germany, daily resolution, without bias correction, 10x10 km raster (n=150) (MPI on behalf of UBA 2006). Compared periods were: B:1971 2000; K:2021-2050; L:2071-2100. Agronomic data were collected from the field books of regional trials from 1974 2014 (n=448). Moreover, a business survey of regional farmers was carried out and evaluated. Impact models to predict timing for sowing, the date of field emergence and row closure, were derived from these data. The ontogenesis was simulated using a linear, temperature-based leaf-growth model. Sowing shifted forward by 7,3 days in regional field trials from 1974 2014. Progress-oriented, risk-tolerant farmers start sowing 10-14 days earlier compared to 1980. Recently, sowing is being conducted on average on 21 March in southwest Germany. For period K, 17 March, and for period L, 2 March is being projected as the average future sowing date while the same late frost risk applies compared to present climatic conditions. Shifting forward the sowing date with spring warming and, thus, exploiting the associated yield potential is the most promising agronomic adaptation strategy to the projected climate change on the farm level. In connection to earlier sowing, the field emergence tendentially shifted forward by 14 days in the field trials. Assuming sowing on 15 March, projection results show an advance of field emergence form 7 April in period B to 3 April in period L. Row closure in field trials in average shifted forward by 19,6 days. For period L, 29 May and thus, an earlier row closure of 9 days compared

  4. Energy supply and demand in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, E. D.

    1978-01-01

    The author expresses his views on future energy demand on the west coast of the United States and how that energy demand translates into demand for major fuels. He identifies the major uncertainties in determining what future demands may be. The major supply options that are available to meet projected demands and the policy implications that flow from these options are discussed.

  5. Mutations in Membrin/GOSR2 Reveal Stringent Secretory Pathway Demands of Dendritic Growth and Synaptic Integrity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Praschberger

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Mutations in the Golgi SNARE (SNAP [soluble NSF attachment protein] receptor protein Membrin (encoded by the GOSR2 gene cause progressive myoclonus epilepsy (PME. Membrin is a ubiquitous and essential protein mediating ER-to-Golgi membrane fusion. Thus, it is unclear how mutations in Membrin result in a disorder restricted to the nervous system. Here, we use a multi-layered strategy to elucidate the consequences of Membrin mutations from protein to neuron. We show that the pathogenic mutations cause partial reductions in SNARE-mediated membrane fusion. Importantly, these alterations were sufficient to profoundly impair dendritic growth in Drosophila models of GOSR2-PME. Furthermore, we show that Membrin mutations cause fragmentation of the presynaptic cytoskeleton coupled with transsynaptic instability and hyperactive neurotransmission. Our study highlights how dendritic growth is vulnerable even to subtle secretory pathway deficits, uncovers a role for Membrin in synaptic function, and provides a comprehensive explanatory basis for genotype-phenotype relationships in GOSR2-PME.

  6. The energy demand in the Narino Department

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, UPME

    2000-01-01

    In the object of making a first approach of regional energy requirements analysis and the good way of satisfying them, the UPME undertook a global energy study for the Narino Department. In this study (UPME 1999) was carried out an analysis of the energy demand and of the socioeconomic factors that determine it; they were also studied the consumptions and the current energy offer and the alternatives of future evolution, with the purpose of having the basic tools of a departmental energy plan. The present article refers specifically to the analysis of the demand and it seeks to show the readers the complexity and the volume of necessary information to carry out the demand studies. They are multiple factors that determine the energy demand in the Narino Department. The size, growth populations, geographical distribution and cultural characteristic, the border condition, the faulty infrastructure of communications, the agricultural economic structure and the low entrance per capita

  7. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  8. A robust test for growth hormone doping--present status and future prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Anne E; Ho, Ken K

    2008-05-01

    Although doping with growth hormone (GH) is banned, there is anecdotal evidence that it is widely abused. GH is reportedly used often in combination with anabolic steroids at high doses for several months. Development of a robust test for GH has been challenging because recombinant human 22 kDa (22K) GH used in doping is indistinguishable analytically from endogenous GH and there are wide physiological fluctuations in circulating GH concentrations. One approach to GH testing is based on measurement of different circulating GH isoforms using immunoassays that differentiate between 22K and other GH isoforms. Administration of 22K GH results in a change in its abundance relative to other endogenous pituitary GH isoforms. The differential isoform method has been implemented; however, its utility is limited because of the short window of opportunity of detection. The second approach, which will extend the window of opportunity of detection, is based on the detection of increased levels of circulating GH-responsive proteins, such as insulin-like growth factor (IGF) axis and collagen peptides. Age and gender are the major determinants of variability for IGF-I and the collagen markers; therefore, a test based on these markers must take age into account for men and women. Extensive data is now available that validates the GH-responsive marker approach and implementation is now largely dependent on establishing an assured supply of standardized assays. Future directions will include more widespread implementation of both approaches by the World Anti-Doping Agency, possible use of other platforms for measurement and an athlete's passport to establish individual reference levels for biological parameters such as GH-responsive markers. Novel approaches include gene expression and proteomic profiling. 2008, Asian Journal of Andrology, SIMM and SJTU. All rights reserved.

  9. Report on the survey made under the research contract with NEDO, `The International Work Division/Energy Demand Effect Survey.`. Influence of the economic growth in Asia on the energy demand; 1996 nendo `kokusai suihei bungyo energy juyo eikyo chosa` itaku chosa kekka hokokusho. Asia no keizai hatten ga energy juyo ni oyobosu eikyo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-03-01

    This report includes surveys on the following: (1) the progress situation of the Asian information society, (2) changes of corporate network, business flow, material flow and money flow in association with the information society, (3) the present situation of the industry-accumulated region in Asia and inter-region network, (4) impacts of the above-mentioned changes on the trade and investment structure in Japan, (5) how to tackle the energy issue in Asia in the future. First, effects of the advance of the information society on energy supply/demand were studied. Next, an analysis was made of effects of the progress of the high-grade information society in Asia on economy, industry and corporate action. The degree of the progress of the information society in Asian countries was made clear from the infrastructure arrangement and the developmental status of application. Contribution of the financial network to the economic growth in Asia and the development were clarified. The organization of corporate networks in Asia where paradigms are converting was made clear to consider industrial clusters in Asia. Last, in the light of the economic relationship between Japan and Asia, a study was made on the future policy of Japan for Asia. 238 refs., 77 figs., 89 tabs.

  10. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  11. Behavioral Economic Purchase Tasks to Estimate Demand for Novel Nicotine/Tobacco Products and Prospectively Predict Future Use: Evidence from the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckman, Bryan W; Cummings, K Michael; Nahas, Georges J; Willemsen, Marc C; O'Connor, Richard J; Borland, Ron; Hirsch, Alexander A; Bickel, Warren K; Carpenter, Matthew J

    2018-03-14

    The demand for alternative nicotine/tobacco products is not well established. This paper uses a behavioral economic approach to test whether smokers have differential demand for conventional factory-made, electronic, and very low nicotine content cigarettes (FMCs/ECs/VLNCs) and uses the prospective cohort design to test the predictive validity of demand indices on subsequent use of commercially available FMCs and ECs. Daily smokers (>16 years) from the Netherlands completed an online survey in April 2014 (N=1215). Purchase tasks were completed for FMCs, ECs, and VLNCs. Participants indicated the number of cigarettes they would consume in 24 hours, across a range of prices (0-30 euro). The relationship between consumption and price was quantified into four indices of demand (intensity, Pmax, breakpoint, and essential value). A follow-up survey in July 2015 measured FMC and EC use. At baseline, greater demand was observed for FMCs relative to ECs and VLNCs across all demand indices, with no difference between ECs and VLNCs. At follow-up, greater baseline FMC demand (intensity, essential value) was associated with lower quit rates and higher relapse. EC demand (Pmax, breakpoint, essential value) was positively associated with any EC use between survey waves, past 30 day EC use, and EC purchase between waves. Smokers valued FMCs more than ECs or VLNCs, and FMCs were less sensitive to price increases. Demand indices predicted use of commercially available products over a 15 month period. To serve as viable substitutes for FMCs, ECs and VLNCs will need to be priced lower than FMCs. Purchase tasks can be adapted for novel nicotine/tobacco products as a means to efficiently quantify demand and predict use. Among current daily smokers, the demand for ECs and VLNCs is lower than FMCs.

  12. Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, R Russell M; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni; Lima, Nelson

    2015-09-24

    The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) (Elaeis guineensis). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A process-oriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC.

  13. Asian oil demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesharaki, F.

    2005-01-01

    This conference presentation examined global oil market development and the role of Asian demand. It discussed plateau change versus cyclical movement in the global oil market; supply and demand issues of OPEC and non-OPEC oil; if high oil prices reduce demand; and the Asian oil picture in the global context. Asian oil demand has accounted for about 50 per cent of the global incremental oil market growth. The presentation provided data charts in graphical format on global and Asia-Pacific incremental oil demand from 1990-2005; Asia oil demand growth for selected nations; real GDP growth in selected Asian countries; and, Asia-Pacific oil production and net import requirements. It also included charts in petroleum product demand for Asia-Pacific, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Other data charts included key indicators for China's petroleum sector; China crude production and net oil import requirements; China's imports and the share of the Middle East; China's oil exports and imports; China's crude imports by source for 2004; China's imports of main oil products for 2004; India's refining capacity; India's product balance for net-imports and net-exports; and India's trade pattern of oil products. tabs., figs

  14. The role and future challenges for recombinant growth hormone therapy to promote growth in children after renal transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janjua, Halima S; Mahan, John D

    2011-01-01

    Chronic kidney disease can severely impair linear growth in children. For many children, growth improves after renal transplantation, but for some, growth velocity remains low and for others, catch-up growth is insufficient to compensate for the deficit imparted by renal disease in the preceding years. Inadequate final adult height after renal transplant is multifactorial and can adversely affect the quality of life (QOL), psychosocial development and long term prospects for these children as they grow into adulthood. Growth failure after renal transplant requires thorough evaluation and its management in renal transplant recipients can involve improved nutritional intake, correction of metabolic acidosis, treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism, steroid-sparing immunosuppression and/or use of recombinant human growth hormone (rGH). Treatment with rGH after renal transplant has been evaluated by a limited number of clinical trials suggesting efficacy and safety for this treatment strategy. Several important clinical questions regarding rGH use in children post-renal transplant remain unanswered. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  15. Uranium resources, production and demand in South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brynard, H.J.; Ainslie, L.C.

    1990-01-01

    This paper provides a review of the historical development of the South African uranium market and the current status of uranium exploration, resources and production. A prognosticated view of possible future demand for uranium in South Africa is attempted, taking cognisance of the finite nature of the country's coal resources and estimated world uranium demand. Although well endowed with uranium resources, South Africa could face a shortage of this commodity in the next century, should the predicted electricity growth materials. (author)

  16. Uranium resources, production and demand in South Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brynard, H J; Ainslie, L C [Atomic Energy Corporation of South Africa Ltd., Pretoria (South Africa)

    1990-06-01

    This paper provides a review of the historical development of the South African uranium market and the current status of uranium exploration, resources and production. A prognosticated view of possible future demand for uranium in South Africa is attempted, taking cognisance of the finite nature of the country's coal resources and estimated world uranium demand. Although well endowed with uranium resources, South Africa could face a shortage of this commodity in the next century, should the predicted electricity growth materials. (author)

  17. Decoupling - past trends and prospects for the future[Decoupling of economic growth and environmental impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Azar, Christian; Holmberg, John; Karlsson, Sten [Chalmers Univ. of Tech., Goeteborg (SE). Physical Resource Theory] [and others

    2002-05-01

    There are widespread demands in society for a dematerialization or decoupling of economic growth from environmental impact. Calls are being made for eco-efficiency and/or an improvement of resource efficiency by a factor of 10. At the same time, some analysts claim there is an environmental Kuznet's curve that supposedly implies a fall in environmental pressure, as we get richer. An improvement in the environmental situation has already been observed in many cases, but there are also many areas where the situation is deteriorating. The purpose of this report is to summarize some key trends of energy and material use over time in both developing and developed countries. We have focused on Sweden, the EU, Japan and the USA as well as China, India and Brazil. The main findings in this paper can be summarized as follows: Absolute emissions of CO{sub 2} have been increasing in most countries and periods studied. Some countries have experienced periods with constant or even falling emissions, but this is the exception rather than the rule, and it has been triggered by oil crises or economic recessions. In order to stabilize atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations, CO{sub 2} emissions have to be decoupled much more rapidly than has been the case in the past, and it is extremely unlikely that this will happen by itself. There was some decoupling of CO{sub 2} emissions from GDP in the major economies of the world from 1970 to 1998 in the EU, Japan and the US as well as in some major developing countries such as China, although India actually increased its emissions over GDP by 1.4 per cent/yr over this period. The drop in CO{sub 2} intensity has been prompted by some decoupling of energy from GDP and CO{sub 2} from energy, the latter being a consequence of an increased use of natural gas and nuclear power. In the South, fossil CO 2 per energy tends to increase from rather low levels. With industrialization, the proportion of biomass drops and the proportion of fossil

  18. The Growth of the Native American Gaming Industry: What Has the Past Provided, and What Does the Future Hold?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaap, James I.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a review which embodies a general inquiry about the growth of the Native American gaming industry and possibilities the future may hold for America's indigenous people. Tribal gaming is different from other forms of gaming. It is conducted by Native American governments as a way to carry out their natural self-governing…

  19. Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisner, Courtney P.; Wood, Joshua C.; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S.; Robin Buell, C.; Winkler, Julie A.

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.

  20. Study on the Future Climate Change and Its Influence on the Growth Stage and Yield of Wheat in Weifang City

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jing; YUAN; Jianping; XU; Lijuan; SUN; Xiuzhen; ZHANG; Xiaoli; WANG

    2015-01-01

    In order to study the trend of climate change in the future in Weifang,and analyze the impact of climate change on the local wheat production,the air temperature and precipitation in Weifang from 2021 to 2050 were simulated by using the regional climate model PRECIS.And then put the meteorological data into the crop model to simulate the growth of wheat under climate change conditions in the future.The results showed that there would be a trend of rising temperature and increasing precipitation in Weifang in the future.Climate warming would result in growth period of wheat to be ahead of schedule and yield reduction.If taking into account the effect of CO2,the yield of wheat would increase.

  1. Chile Confronts its Environmental Health Future After 25 Years of Accelerated Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pino, Paulina; Iglesias, Verónica; Garreaud, René; Cortés, Sandra; Canals, Mauricio; Folch, Walter; Burgos, Soledad; Levy, Karen; Naeher, Luke P; Steenland, Kyle

    2015-01-01

    Chile has recently been reclassified by the World Bank from an upper-middle-income country to a high-income country. There has been great progress in the last 20 to 30 years in relation to air and water pollution in Chile. Yet after 25 years of unrestrained growth, there remain clear challenges posed by air and water pollution, as well as climate change. The aim of this study was to review environmental health in Chile. In late 2013, a 3-day workshop on environmental health was held in Santiago, Chile, bringing together researchers and government policymakers. As a follow-up to that workshop, here we review the progress made in environmental health in the past 20 to 30 years and discuss the challenges of the future. We focus on air and water pollution and climate change, which we believe are among the most important areas of environmental health in Chile. Air pollution in some cities remains among the highest in the continent. Potable water is generally available, but weak state supervision has led to serious outbreaks of infectious disease and ongoing issues with arsenic exposure in some regions. Climate change modeling in Chile is quite sophisticated, and a number of the impacts of climate change can be reasonably predicted in terms of which areas of the country are most likely to be affected by increased temperature and decreased availability of water, as well as expansion of vector territory. Some health effects, including changes in vector-borne diseases and excess heat mortality, can be predicted. However, there has yet to be an integration of such research with government planning. Although great progress has been made, currently there are a number of problems. We suspect that the Chilean experience in environmental health may be of some use for other Latin American countries with rapid economic development. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-05-01

    This report covers the period 1983 to 1995. It draws together the industry's latest views on future trends in supply and demand, and sets them in their historical context. It devotes less discussion than its predecessors to the technical influences underpinning the Institute's supply and demand forecasts, and more to the factors which influence the market behaviour of the industry's various participants. As the last decade has clearly shown, these latter influences can easily be overlooked when undue attention is given to physical imbalances between supply and demand. (author)

  3. On energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haefele, W.

    1977-01-01

    Since the energy crisis, a number of energy plans have been proposed, and almost all of these envisage some kind of energy demand adaptations or conservation measures, hoping thus to escape the anticipated problems of energy supply. However, there seems to be no clear explanation of the basis on which our foreseeable future energy problems could be eased. And in fact, a first attempt at a more exact definition of energy demand and its interaction with other objectives, such as economic ones, shows that it is a highly complex concept which we still hardly understand. The article explains in some detail why it is so difficult to understand energy demand

  4. Growth in European gas demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clement, B.

    1993-01-01

    The last three decades witnessed mainly the development of gas pipeline systems as a result of major onshore and offshore gas strikes in the fifties and sixties as well as the increase in gas sales on market segments which has been previously cornered by oil and coal products. Power generation currently is an additional potential market for which the availability of adequate resources plays a major role

  5. Prediction of future urban growth using CA-Markov for urban sustainability planning of Banda Aceh, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achmad, A.; Irwansyah, M.; Ramli, I.

    2018-03-01

    Banda Aceh experienced rapid growth, both physically, socially, and economically, after the Tsunami that devastated it the end of December in 2004. Hence policy controls are needed to direct the pattern of urban growth to achieve sustainable development for the future. The purpose of this paper is to generate a growth model for Banda Aceh using the CA-Markov process. By knowing the changes in land use between 2005 and 2009 from the results of previous research, simulations for 2013, 2019 and 2029 using the application of Idrisi@Selva. CA-Markov models were prepared to determine the quantity of changes. The simulation results showed that, after the Tsunami, the City of Banda Aceh tended to grow towards the coast. For the control of the LUC, the Banda Aceh City government needs to prepare comprehensive and detailed maps and inventory of LUC for the city to provide basic data and information needed for monitoring and evaluation that can be done effectively and efficiently. An institution for monitoring and evaluation of the urban landscape and the LUC should be formed immediately. This institution could consist of representatives from government, academia, community leaders, the private sector and other experts. The findings from this study can be used to start the monitoring and evaluation of future urban growth. Especially for the coastal areas, the local government should immediately prepare special spatial coastal area plans to control growth in those areas and to ensure that the economic benefits from disaster mitigation and coastal protection are preserved. For the development of the city in the future, it is necessary to achieve a balance between economic development, and social welfare with environmental protection and disaster mitigation. iIt will become a big challenge to achieve sustainable development for the future.

  6. Conceptual basis for prescriptive growth standards from conception to early childhood: present and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uauy, R; Casanello, P; Krause, B; Kuzanovic, J P; Corvalan, C

    2013-09-01

    Healthy growth in utero and after birth is fundamental for lifelong health and wellbeing. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently published standards for healthy growth from birth to 6 years of age; analogous standards for healthy fetal growth are not currently available. Current fetal growth charts in use are not true standards, since they are based on cross-sectional measurements of attained size under conditions that do not accurately reflect normal growth. In most cases, the pregnant populations and environments studied are far from ideal; thus the data are unlikely to reflect optimal fetal growth. A true standard should reflect how fetuses and newborns 'should' grow under ideal environmental conditions. The development of prescriptive intrauterine and newborn growth standards derived from the INTERGROWTH-21(st) Project provides the data that will allow us for the first time to establish what is 'normal' fetal growth. The INTERGROWTH-21(st) study centres provide the data set obtained under pre-established standardised criteria, and details of the methods used are also published. Multicentre study with sites in all major geographical regions of the world using a standard evaluation protocol. These standards will assess risk of abnormal size at birth and serve to evaluate potentially effective interventions to promote optimal growth beyond securing survival. The new normative standards have the potential to impact perinatal and neonatal survival and beyond, particularly in developing countries where fetal growth restriction is most prevalent. They will help us identify intrauterine growth restriction at earlier stages of development, when preventive or corrective strategies might be more effective than at present. These growth standards will take us one step closer to effective action in preventing and potentially reversing abnormal intrauterine growth. Achieving 'optimal' fetal growth requires that we act not only during pregnancy but that we optimize the

  7. Enabling technologies for demand management: Transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Roderick A.

    2008-01-01

    Rising transport demand is likely to be the biggest hurdle to reducing our greenhouse gas emissions. Globally and nationally, transport is consuming an ever increasing share of our total energy use. Furthermore, the bulk of energy used in transport comes from the burning of petroleum products. This brief paper summarises options arising from the two routes to reduce energy demand in transport: improved and more efficient use of existing and possible new transport modes, and the reduction of transport demand. In both areas, the prospects in the immediate and longer-term future are hedged with difficulties. Automobiles and aircraft have improved considerably in recent decades, but future improvements are likely to be incremental. The introduction of hydrogen as a fuel is appealing, but there are technical problems to be solved. Active reduction of demand for transport will require a decoupling of the link between demand and growth in gross domestic product. Globally, this will be very difficult to achieve. Various modes of public transport exist that are efficient in terms of their energy use per passenger kilometre. But they need large investments to make them more attractive than the automobile. However, population concentration in mega-cities, allied with congestion, will make such innovation essential. Policy measures can be assisted in their implementation by new technology, but will remain politically problematic

  8. The Effects of Projected Future Demand Including Very Light Jet Air-Taxi Operations on U.S. National Airspace System Delays as a Function of Next Generation Air Transportation System Airspace Capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jerry; Viken, Jeff; Dollyhigh, Samuel; Trani, Antonio; Baik, Hojong; Hinze, Nicholas; Ashiabor, Senanu

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the results from a study which investigates the potential effects of the growth in air traffic demand including projected Very Light Jet (VLJ) air-taxi operations adding to delays experienced by commercial passenger air transportation in the year 2025. The geographic region studied is the contiguous United States (U.S.) of America, although international air traffic to and from the U.S. is included. The main focus of this paper is to determine how much air traffic growth, including VLJ air-taxi operations will add to enroute airspace congestion and determine what additional airspace capacity will be needed to accommodate the expected demand. Terminal airspace is not modeled and increased airport capacity is assumed.

  9. Natural gas central to world's future energy mix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carson, M.M.

    1997-01-01

    Continued growth in demand for natural gas is one of three pillars around which the energy mix of the future will take shape and upon which energy strategies should be based. The others are consumption efficiency and growth of renewable energy sources. This paper evaluates world energy supply and demand and includes an analysis of world pipeline gas, electricity, and LNG trends. The paper discusses the natural gas resource, proved reserves, reserves growth, gas prices and demand, country demand trends, world energy use, gas pipeline construction, power generation, electricity consumption and prices, and global carbon emissions

  10. The past, present, and future of U.S. utility demand side management programs; Passe, present et avenir des programmes americains de matrise de la demande d`electricite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eto, J. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States). Energy and Environment Div.

    1996-12-31

    US utility DSM programs have been a highly successful regulatory approach for overcoming shortcomings in the markets for energy services. The foundation for this unique partnership between governmental and utility interests can be traced first to the private-ownership structure of this vertically integrated industry and second to the monopoly franchises granted to it by U.S. state regulators. U.S. electricity industry restructuring calls into question both of these basic conditions, and thus the future of utility DSM programs. This paper describes the range and history of DSM programs offered by U.S. electric utilities, with a focus on the political, economic, and regulatory events that have shaped their evolution. For the future, we expect DSM programs to continue on two parallel paths reflecting both the changing business interests of electric utilities in a restructured industry as well as the continuing public interest in the environmental consequences of electricity generation. (author)

  11. Productivity in physical and chemical science predicts the future economic growth of developing countries better than other popular indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, Klaus; Caicedo, Mario; Manzanares, Marcos; Gil, Mario; Rios, Alfredo; Florez, Astrid; Montoreano, Claudia; Davila, Vicente

    2013-01-01

    Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences.

  12. Productivity in physical and chemical science predicts the future economic growth of developing countries better than other popular indices.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klaus Jaffe

    Full Text Available Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences.

  13. Uranium 2009: Resources, Production and Demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    With several countries currently building nuclear power plants and planning the construction of more to meet long-term increases in electricity demand, uranium resources, production and demand remain topics of notable interest. In response to the projected growth in demand for uranium and declining inventories, the uranium industry - the first critical link in the fuel supply chain for nuclear reactors - is boosting production and developing plans for further increases in the near future. Strong market conditions will, however, be necessary to trigger the investments required to meet projected demand. The 'Red Book', jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a recognised world reference on uranium. It is based on information compiled in 40 countries, including those that are major producers and consumers of uranium. This 23. edition provides a comprehensive review of world uranium supply and demand as of 1 January 2009, as well as data on global uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantive new information from major uranium production centres around the world, as well as from countries developing production centres for the first time. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2035 are also featured, along with an analysis of long-term uranium supply and demand issues

  14. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Babusiaux, D

    2004-07-01

    Following the military intervention in Iraq, it is taking longer than expected for Iraqi exports to make a comeback on the market. Demand is sustained by economic growth in China and in the United States. OPEC is modulating production to prevent inventory build-up. Prices have stayed high despite increased production by non-OPEC countries, especially Russia. (author)

  15. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.

    2004-01-01

    Following the military intervention in Iraq, it is taking longer than expected for Iraqi exports to make a comeback on the market. Demand is sustained by economic growth in China and in the United States. OPEC is modulating production to prevent inventory build-up. Prices have stayed high despite increased production by non-OPEC countries, especially Russia. (author)

  16. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rech, O.

    2004-01-01

    World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

  17. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rech, O

    2004-07-01

    World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

  18. Future Reef Growth Can Mitigate Physical Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Atoll Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beetham, Edward; Kench, Paul S.; Popinet, Stéphane

    2017-10-01

    We present new detail on how future sea-level rise (SLR) will modify nonlinear wave transformation processes, shoreline wave energy, and wave driven flooding on atoll islands. Frequent and destructive wave inundation is a primary climate-change hazard that may render atoll islands uninhabitable in the near future. However, limited research has examined the physical vulnerability of atoll islands to future SLR and sparse information are available to implement process-based coastal management on coral reef environments. We utilize a field-verified numerical model capable of resolving all nonlinear wave transformation processes to simulate how future SLR will modify wave dissipation and overtopping on Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu, accounting for static and accretionary reef adjustment morphologies. Results show that future SLR coupled with a static reef morphology will not only increase shoreline wave energy and overtopping but will fundamentally alter the spectral composition of shoreline energy by decreasing the contemporary influence of low-frequency infragravity waves. "Business-as-usual" emissions (RCP 8.5) will result in annual wave overtopping on Funafuti Atoll by 2030, with overtopping at high tide under mean wave conditions occurring from 2090. Comparatively, vertical reef accretion in response to SLR will prevent any significant increase in shoreline wave energy and mitigate wave driven flooding volume by 72%. Our results provide the first quantitative assessment of how effective future reef accretion can be at mitigating SLR-associated flooding on atoll islands and endorse active reef conservation and restoration for future coastal protection.

  19. Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

    2014-10-01

    We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

  20. Future growth in the gamma sterilization of disposable medical products (DMPs)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinston, R.M.

    1990-01-01

    An estimated 361 million cubic feet (10 million cubic meters) of disposable medical products and related health care items are currently being sterilized around the world. Ethylene oxide gas is used to treat approximately 252 million cubic feet (7.1 million cubic meters), gamma radiation is used to sterilize approximately 99 million cubic feet (2.8 million cubic meters), and electron beam is used on approximately 10 million cubic feet (0.3 million cubic meters) of disposable medical products (DMPs). Market share for each of these terminal cold sterilization processes are 70%, 27%, and 3% respectively. There are a number of factors which are affecting the overall growth of the market. The most important factors are summarized. Balancing all of these factors, the pre-sterilized disposable products market is forecasted to grow on average of 5% per year. Gamma radiation is experiencing growth from both general market growth and the introduction of new products, as well as the conversion of product from ethylene oxide (EtO) to cobalt-60 sterilization. Electron beam usage while experiencing good growth in the early 1980s, is predicted to have a flat growth curve during the late 1980s, and then start to experience renewed growth in the mid to late 1990s as two or three new electron beam facilities are built. In the late 1990s other potentially competing technologies are expected to have an impact on the market place. (author)

  1. Vascular dysfunction in women with a history of preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction: insights into future vascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yinon, Yoav; Kingdom, John C P; Odutayo, Ayodele; Moineddin, Rahim; Drewlo, Sascha; Lai, Vesta; Cherney, David Z I; Hladunewich, Michelle A

    2010-11-02

    Women with a history of placental disease are at increased risk for the future development of vascular disease. It is unknown whether preexisting endothelial dysfunction underlies both the predisposition to placental disease and the later development of vascular disease. The aim of this study was to assess vascular function in postpartum women and to determine whether differences emerged depending on the presentation of placental disease. Women with a history of early-onset preeclampsia (n=15), late-onset preeclampsia (n=9), intrauterine growth restriction without preeclampsia (n=9), and prior normal pregnancy (n=16) were studied 6 to 24 months postpartum. Flow-mediated vasodilatation and flow-independent (glyceryl trinitrate-induced) vasodilatation were studied through the use of high-resolution vascular ultrasound examination of the brachial artery. Arterial stiffness was assessed by pulse-wave analysis (augmentation index). Laboratory assessment included circulating angiogenic factors (vascular endothelial growth factor, soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1, placental growth factor, and soluble endoglin). Flow-mediated vasodilatation was significantly reduced in women with previous early-onset preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction compared with women with previous late-onset preeclampsia and control subjects (3.2±2.7% and 2.1±1.2% versus 7.9±3.8% and 9.1±3.5%, respectively; Pwomen with previous early-onset preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction, but not among late preeclamptic women and control subjects (P=0.0105). Circulating angiogenic factors were similar in all groups. Only women with a history of early-onset preeclampsia or intrauterine growth restriction without preeclampsia exhibit impaired vascular function, which might explain their predisposition to placental disease and their higher risk of future vascular disease.

  2. Influence of India’s transformation on residential energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The middle income group emerges as the dominant segment by 2030. • Commercial residential energy demand increases 3–4 folds compared to 2010. • Electricity and LPG demand grows above 6% per year in the reference scenario. • India faces the potential of displacing the domination of biomass by 2030. - Abstract: India’s recent macro-economic and structural changes are transforming the economy and bringing significant changes to energy demand behaviour. Life-style and consumption behaviour are evolving rapidly due to accelerated economic growth in recent times. The population structure is changing, thereby offering the country with the potential to reap the population dividend. The country is also urbanising rapidly, and the fast-growing middle class segment of the population is fuelling consumerism by mimicking international life-styles. These changes are likely to have significant implications for energy demand in the future, particularly in the residential sector. Using the end-use approach of demand analysis, this paper analyses how residential energy demand is likely to evolve as a consequence of India’s transformation and finds that by 2030, India’s commercial energy demand in the residential sector can quadruple in the high scenario compared to the demand in 2010. Demand for modern fuels like electricity and liquefied petroleum gas is likely to grow at a faster rate. However, there is a window of opportunity to better manage the evolution of residential demand in India through energy efficiency improvement

  3. Uranium resources and supply - demand to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vance, R.

    2010-01-01

    Recent fluctuations in the market price for uranium have resulted in more activity in this sector over the past few years than in the preceding 20 years. Amidst this background, uranium demand is increasing. Construction of nuclear reactors is proceeding in some countries, ambitious expansion plans have been announced in others and the development of nuclear power programs to meet electricity demand and minimize greenhouse emissions in a cost effective manner is under consideration in many others. This paper reviews projections of nuclear growth and uranium demand and assesses the challenges faced by the uranium mining sector in meeting rising demand. Since the mid-1960 s, an international expert committee (the 'Uranium Group') formed by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency has published biennially comprehensive updates on global uranium resources, production and demand (the 'Red Book'). The most recent in this series, based on 2007 data and published in June 2008, includes a supply/demand projection to 2030. However, much has changed since the data were collected for this projection and an assessment of these changes and their impact on uranium production is included in this presentation. It is concluded that world identified uranium resources (5.45 million t U recoverable at costs up to US$130/kg U, or US$50/lb U 3 O 8 ) are adequate to meet projected future high case nuclear power requirements. However, recent financial market turmoil and lower uranium prices, the opaque nature of the uranium market itself, increased regulatory requirements, a scarcity of the required specialized labour and the fluctuating costs of raw materials makes the process of turning uranium resources in the ground into yellowcake in the can increasingly more challenging, particularly for new entrants. Considerable investment and expertise will be required to bring about the substantial increase in mine production required to meet future demand

  4. Crude oil prices: Robust demands strengthens outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, M.R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper briefly summarizes the growth in the global demand for oil products by showing the historical trends in production and demand in developing countries. It shows world incremental production growth from 1985 to 1995 and developing countries's demands from 1971 to 1989. The paper goes on to make predictions as to whether the demand growth rate can be sustained. It provides information on the status of the world offshore drilling and production facilities to determine the capacity of this resource

  5. The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes. Medical Isotope Supply in the Future: Production Capacity and Demand. Forecast for the 99Mo/99mTc Market, 2015-2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peykov, Pavel; Cameron, Ron

    2014-04-01

    This document presents a forecast of 99 Mo/ 99m Tc production capacity and demand in 2015-2020, when two major irradiators - the OSIRIS and NRU reactors in France and Canada - are expected to exit the global supply chain and new alternative technology projects may be commissioned. The forecast does not attempt to predict shortages, but identify periods when there is an increased risk of disrupted supply, to inform policy makers and other stakeholders. (authors)

  6. Expanding Regional Airport Usage to Accommodate Increased Air Traffic Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Carl R.

    2009-01-01

    Small regional airports present an underutilized source of capacity in the national air transportation system. This study sought to determine whether a 50 percent increase in national operations could be achieved by limiting demand growth at large hub airports and instead growing traffic levels at the surrounding regional airports. This demand scenario for future air traffic in the United States was generated and used as input to a 24-hour simulation of the national airspace system. Results of the demand generation process and metrics predicting the simulation results are presented, in addition to the actual simulation results. The demand generation process showed that sufficient runway capacity exists at regional airports to offload a significant portion of traffic from hub airports. Predictive metrics forecast a large reduction of delays at most major airports when demand is shifted. The simulation results then show that offloading hub traffic can significantly reduce nationwide delays.

  7. Demand for oil and energy in developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolf, C. Jr.; Relles, D.A.; Navarro, J.

    1980-05-01

    How much of the world's oil and energy supply will the non-OPEC less-developed countries (NOLDCs) demand in the next decade. Will their requirements be small and thus fairly insignificant compared with world demand, or large and relatively important. How will world demand be affected by the economic growth of the NOLDCs. In this report, we try to develop some reasonable forecasts of NOLDC energy demands in the next 10 years. Our focus is mainly on the demand for oil, but we also give some attention to the total commercial energy requirements of these countries. We have tried to be explicit about the uncertainties associated with our forecasts, and with the income and price elasticities on which they are based. Finally, we consider the forecasts in terms of their implications for US policies concerning the NOLDCs and suggest areas of future research on NOLDC energy issues.

  8. Residential electricity demand in Singapore

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, B.W.; Goh, T.N.; Liu, X.Q.

    1992-01-01

    Residential electricity consumption in Singapore increased at a rate of 8.8% per year between 1972 and 1990. Estimates of the long-run income and price elasticities are 1.0 and -0.35, respectively. The energy-conservation campaigns that have been launched are found to have marginal effects on consumption. A statistical analysis shows that the consumption is sensitive to small changes in climatic variables, particularly the temperature, which is closely linked to the growing diffusion of electric appliances for environmental controls. There has been a temporal increase in the ownership levels of appliances associated with increasing household incomes. However, other factors were involved since the ownership levels would also increase over time after the elimination of the income effect. A large part of the future growth in electricity demand will arise from the growing need for air-conditioning, which will lead to increasingly large seasonal variations in electricity use. (author)

  9. Demand response in energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skytte, K.; Birk Mortensen, J.

    2004-11-01

    Improving the ability of energy demand to respond to wholesale prices during critical periods of the spot market can reduce the total costs of reliably meeting demand, and the level and volatility of the prices. This fact has lead to a growing interest in the short-run demand response. There has especially been a growing interest in the electricity market where peak-load periods with high spot prices and occasional local blackouts have recently been seen. Market concentration at the supply side can result in even higher peak-load prices. Demand response by shifting demand from peak to base-load periods can counteract the market power in the peak-load. However, demand response has so far been modest since the current short-term price elasticity seems to be small. This is also the case for related markets, for example, green certificates where the demand is determined as a percentage of the power demand, or for heat and natural gas markets. This raises a number of interesting research issues: 1) Demand response in different energy markets, 2) Estimation of price elasticity and flexibility, 3) Stimulation of demand response, 4) Regulation, policy and modelling aspects, 5) Demand response and market power at the supply side, 6) Energy security of supply, 7) Demand response in forward, spot, ancillary service, balance and capacity markets, 8) Demand response in deviated markets, e.g., emission, futures, and green certificate markets, 9) Value of increased demand response, 10) Flexible households. (BA)

  10. Growth-Prediction Model for Blue Mussels (Mytilus edulis on Future Optimally Thinned Farm-Ropes in Great Belt (Denmark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poul S. Larsen

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A recently developed BioEnergetic Growth (BEG model for blue mussels (Mytilus edulis, valid for juvenile mussels, has been further developed to an ‘extended model’ and an alternative ‘ad hoc BEG model’ valid for post-metamorphic mussels, where the latter accounts for changing ambient chl a concentration. It was used to predict the growth of M. edulis on optimally thinned farm-ropes in Great Belt (Denmark, from newly settled post-metamorphic mussels of an initial shell size of 0.8 mm to marketable juvenile 30–35 mm ‘mini-mussels’. Such mussels will presumably in the near future be introduced as a new Danish, smaller-sized consumer product. Field data for actual growth (from Day 0 = 14 June 2011 showed that size of ‘mini-mussel’ was reached on Day 109 (Oct 1 and length 38 mm on Day 178 (Dec 9 while the corresponding predictions using the extended model were Day 121 (Oct 13 and Day 159 (Nov 20. Similar results were obtained by use of the ad hoc BEG model which also demonstrated the sensitivity of growth prediction to levels of chl a concentration, but less to temperature. The results suggest that it is possible (when the conditions are optimal, i.e., no intraspecific competition ensured by sufficient thinning to produce ‘mini-mussels’ in Great Belt during one season, but not the usual marketable 45-mm mussels. We suggest that the prediction model may be used as a practical instrument to evaluate to what degree the actual growth of mussels on farm ropes due to intraspecific competition may deviate from the potential (optimal growth under specified chl a and temperature conditions, and this implies that the effect of thinning to optimize the individual growth by eliminating intraspecific competition can be rationally evaluated.

  11. Papers of the 1997 CERI international petrochemical conference : transformation, growth and future direction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-06-01

    A global overview of the current state of the petrochemical industry, a forecast of future developments, and Alberta's place in the petrochemical industry were the principal themes of this conference. Main topics explored included: (1) global opportunities for petrochemical producers, (2) natural gas and feedstock supplies, (3) chemical industry environment, (4) pipeline implications and transportation systems for the petrochemical industry, (5) partnerships, (6) investment cycles, and (7) forces and future directions for the Canadian industry. The Proceedings volume includes complete text of some of the papers, and speaking notes and copies of overhead slides for others, as submitted by individual speakers. refs., tabs., figs

  12. Assessment of demand for natural gas from the electricity sector in India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Victor, David G.

    2009-01-01

    Electricity sector is among the key users of natural gas. The sustained electricity deficit and environment policies have added to an already rising demand for gas. This paper tries to understand gas demand in future from electricity sector. This paper models the future demand for gas in India from...... the electricity sector under alternative scenarios for the period 2005–2025, using bottom-up ANSWER MARKAL model. The scenarios are differentiated by alternate economic growth projections and policies related to coal reforms, infrastructure choices and local environment. The results across scenarios show that gas...... competes with coal as a base-load option if price difference is below US $ 4 per MBtu. At higher price difference gas penetrates only the peak power market. Gas demand is lower in the high economic growth scenario, since electricity sector is more flexible in substitution of primary energy. Gas demand...

  13. Silvicultural treatments enhance growth rates of future crop trees in a tropical dry forest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Villegas, Z.; Peña-Claros, M.; Mostacedo, B.; Alarcón, A.; Licona, J.C.; Leaño, C.; Pariona, W.; Choque, U.

    2009-01-01

    Silvicultural treatments are often needed in selectively logged tropical forest to enhance the growth rates of many commercial tree species and, consequently, for recovering a larger proportion of the initial volume harvested over the next cutting cycle. The available data in the literature suggest,

  14. Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: Assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Boykin, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for 1) a “Current Trends” scenario and, 2) a “Megalopolis” scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on Current Trends, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species), and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas, in the Megalopolis scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24% respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: Current Trends would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while Megalopolis would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

  15. China's Coal: Demand, Constraints, and Externalities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aden, Nathaniel; Fridley, David; Zheng, Nina

    2009-07-01

    This study analyzes China's coal industry by focusing on four related areas. First, data are reviewed to identify the major drivers of historical and future coal demand. Second, resource constraints and transport bottlenecks are analyzed to evaluate demand and growth scenarios. The third area assesses the physical requirements of substituting coal demand growth with other primary energy forms. Finally, the study examines the carbon- and environmental implications of China's past and future coal consumption. There are three sections that address these areas by identifying particular characteristics of China's coal industry, quantifying factors driving demand, and analyzing supply scenarios: (1) reviews the range of Chinese and international estimates of remaining coal reserves and resources as well as key characteristics of China's coal industry including historical production, resource requirements, and prices; (2) quantifies the largest drivers of coal usage to produce a bottom-up reference projection of 2025 coal demand; and (3) analyzes coal supply constraints, substitution options, and environmental externalities. Finally, the last section presents conclusions on the role of coal in China's ongoing energy and economic development. China has been, is, and will continue to be a coal-powered economy. In 2007 Chinese coal production contained more energy than total Middle Eastern oil production. The rapid growth of coal demand after 2001 created supply strains and bottlenecks that raise questions about sustainability. Urbanization, heavy industrial growth, and increasing per-capita income are the primary interrelated drivers of rising coal usage. In 2007, the power sector, iron and steel, and cement production accounted for 66% of coal consumption. Power generation is becoming more efficient, but even extensive roll-out of the highest efficiency units would save only 14% of projected 2025 coal demand for the power sector. A new wedge of

  16. A critical review of IEA's oil demand forecast for China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nel, Willem P.; Cooper, Christopher J.

    2008-01-01

    China has a rapidly growing economy with a rapidly increasing demand for oil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) investigated possible future oil demand scenarios for China in the 2006 World Energy Outlook. The debate on whether oil supplies will be constrained in the near future, because of limited new discoveries, raises the concern that the oil industry may not be able to produce sufficient oil to meet this demand. This paper examines the historical relationship between economic growth and oil consumption in a number of countries. Logistic curve characteristics are observed in the relationship between per capita economic activity and oil consumption. This research has determined that the minimum statistical (lower-bound) annual oil consumption for developed countries is 11 barrels per capita. Despite the increase reported in total energy efficiency, no developed country has been able to reduce oil consumption below this lower limit. Indeed, the IEA projections to 2030 for the OECD countries show no reduction in oil demand on a per capita basis. If this lower limit is applied to China, it is clear that the IEA projections for China are under-estimating the growth in demand for oil. This research has determined that this under-estimation could be as high as 10 million barrels per day by 2025. If proponents of Peak Oil such as Laherrere, Campbell and Deffeyes are correct about the predicted peak in oil production before 2020 then the implications of this reassessment of China's oil demand will have profound implications for mankind

  17. Remote coral reefs can sustain high growth potential and may match future sea-level trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Chris T; Murphy, Gary N; Graham, Nicholas A J; Wilson, Shaun K; Januchowski-Hartley, Fraser A; East, Holly K

    2015-12-16

    Climate-induced disturbances are contributing to rapid, global-scale changes in coral reef ecology. As a consequence, reef carbonate budgets are declining, threatening reef growth potential and thus capacity to track rising sea-levels. Whether disturbed reefs can recover their growth potential and how rapidly, are thus critical research questions. Here we address these questions by measuring the carbonate budgets of 28 reefs across the Chagos Archipelago (Indian Ocean) which, while geographically remote and largely isolated from compounding human impacts, experienced severe (>90%) coral mortality during the 1998 warming event. Coral communities on most reefs recovered rapidly and we show that carbonate budgets in 2015 average +3.7 G (G = kg CaCO3 m(-2) yr(-1)). Most significantly the production rates on Acropora-dominated reefs, the corals most severely impacted in 1998, averaged +8.4 G by 2015, comparable with estimates under pre-human (Holocene) disturbance conditions. These positive budgets are reflected in high reef growth rates (4.2 mm yr(-1)) on Acropora-dominated reefs, demonstrating that carbonate budgets on these remote reefs have recovered rapidly from major climate-driven disturbances. Critically, these reefs retain the capacity to grow at rates exceeding measured regional mid-late Holocene and 20th century sea-level rise, and close to IPCC sea-level rise projections through to 2100.

  18. Uranium 1999. Resources, production and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    In recent years, the world uranium market has been characterised by an imbalance between demand and supply and persistently depressed uranium prices. World uranium production currently satisfies between 55 and 60 per cent of the total reactor-related requirements, while the rest of the demand is met by secondary sources including the conversion of excess defence material and stockpiles, primarily from Eastern Europe. Although the future availability of these secondary sources remains unclear, projected low-cost production capability is expected to satisfy a considerable part of demand through to 2015. Information in this report provides insights into changes expected in uranium supply and demand over the next 15 years. The 'Red Book', jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is the foremost world reference on uranium. It is based on official information from 49 countries and includes compilations of statistics on resources, exploration, production and demand as of 1 January 1999. It provides substantial new information from all of the major uranium producing centres in Africa, Australia, Eastern Europe, North America and the New Independent States. It also contains an international expert analysis of industry statistics and world-wide projections of nuclear energy growth, uranium requirements and uranium supply. (authors)

  19. Energy in China: Coping with increasing demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandklef, Kristina

    2004-11-01

    Sustaining the increasing energy consumption is crucial to future economic growth in China. This report focuses on the current and future situation of energy production and consumption in China and how China is coping with its increasing domestic energy demand. Today, coal is the most important energy resource, followed by oil and hydropower. Most energy resources are located in the inland, whereas the main demand for energy is in the coastal areas, which makes transportation and transmission of energy vital. The industrial sector is the main driver of the energy consumption in China, but the transport sector and the residential sector will increase their share of consumption in China, but the transport sector and the residential sector will increase their share of consumption by 2020. China's energy intensity decreased during the 1990s, but it is still high in a global comparison. China is projected to increase its energy consumption at least two times between 2000 and 2025. The government has an equal focus on energy conservation and to develop the current energy resources. Coal will continue to be the most important fuel, but the demand for oil, hydropower, natural gas and nuclear power will also increase. The main future challenges are transportation of energy resources within China and securing oil supply, both domestic and imports

  20. In demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, B. [Bridgestone Ltd. (United Kingdom)

    2005-11-01

    The paper explains how good relationships can help alleviate potential tyre shortages. Demand for large dump truck tyres (largely for China) has increased by 50% within 12 months. Bridgestone's manufacturing plants are operating at maximum capacity. The company supplies tyres to all vehicles at Scottish Coal's opencast coal mines. Its Tyre Management System (TMS) supplied free of charge to customers helps maximise tyre life and minimise downtime from data on pressure, tread and general conditions fed into the hand-held TMS computer. 3 photos.

  1. Beyond Renewable Portfolio Standards: An Assessment of Regional Supply and Demand Conditions Affecting the Future of Renewable Energy in the West; Report and Executive Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hurlbut, D. J.; McLaren, J.; Gelman, R.

    2013-08-01

    This study assesses the outlook for utility-scale renewable energy development in the West once states have met their renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements. In the West, the last state RPS culminates in 2025, so the analysis uses 2025 as a transition point on the timeline of RE development. Most western states appear to be on track to meet their final requirements, relying primarily on renewable resources located relatively close to the customers being served. What happens next depends on several factors including trends in the supply and price of natural gas, greenhouse gas and other environmental regulations, consumer preferences, technological breakthroughs, and future public policies and regulations. Changes in any one of these factors could make future renewable energy options more or less attractive.

  2. Uranium supply and demand, 1980-1995: a Uranium Institute analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erkes, P.; Clements, A.; Lloyd, B.; Darmayan, P.

    1982-01-01

    A major factor affecting the growth of the uranium market has reduced global economic growth, leading to a reduced demand for electricity and a lack of urgency regarding the need for new generating capacity. Factors influencing the demand for uranium are commitments to enrichment contracts, stockpiles and procurement policies, nuclear capacity forecasts. The present over supply, caused by the oil price rise of the early 1970's is likely to persist into the mid 1980's. Supply and demand should reach a balance in the second half of the 1980's or early 1990's. Economic incentives must be available to producers to encourage future exploration and mine development. (U.K.)

  3. European chemistry for growth. Unlocking a competitive, low carbon and energy efficient future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-04-15

    The long term role of the chemical industry as Europe progresses to an energy efficient and low GHG emission future, and the sector's potential to assist Europe in meeting its decarbonisation targets is investigated. The timeline for deploying existing and new technologies from 2020 to 2050 and their potential impact on energy efficiency and GHG emission levels, as well as the competitive position of the European chemical industry is assessed. Cefic commissioned Ecofys to perform analyses and bring forward key conclusions and recommendations from their independent viewpoint, in close collaboration with the sector. As a strategic orientation for this industry and a high level priority for Cefic's Board, this Roadmap meets the need for the European chemical industry to develop a new, longer term strategic approach to energy and climate policy and contributes to the debate on the post-2020 policy framework. This Roadmap has three main objectives: (1) Provide quantitative and more qualitative evidence on the options available to the European chemical industry to contribute to the EU's long term GHG emissions reduction goals. These options apply to technologies and product development for the sector itself and for other sectors of the EU economy; (2) Based on this evidence, define a long term vision for the European chemical industry within a European Union that progresses to a low GHG emission future by defining a number of plausible scenarios in the context of global market developments; (3) Formulate recommendations externally to policy makers and internally to the European chemical industry based on the scenarios studied. Chapter 2 provides an overview of the European chemical industry, while Chapter 3 describes the current policy landscape for the European chemical industry. Chapter 4 focuses on the European chemical industry as an enabler of energy efficiency and emissions reduction for sectors across the economy. In Chapter 5, the energy efficiency

  4. Past, Present, and Future Old Growth in Frequent-fire Conifer Forests of the Western United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott R. Abella

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Old growth in the frequent-fire conifer forests of the western United States, such as those containing ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa, Jeffrey pine (P. jeffreyi, giant sequoia (Sequioa giganteum and other species, has undergone major changes since Euro-American settlement. Understanding past changes and anticipating future changes under different potential management scenarios are fundamental to developing ecologically based fuel reduction or ecological restoration treatments. Some of the many changes that have occurred in these forests include shifts from historically frequent surface fire to no fire or to stand-replacing fire regimes, increases in tree density, increased abundance of fire-intolerant trees, decreases in understory productivity, hydrological alterations, and accelerated mortality of old trees. Although these changes are widespread, the magnitude and causes of changes may vary within and among landscapes. Agents of change, such as fire exclusion or livestock grazing, likely interacted and had multiple effects. For example, historical ranching operations may have altered both fire regimes and understory vegetation, and facilitated institutional fire exclusion through fragmentation and settlement. Evidence exists for large variation in presettlement characteristics and current condition of old growth across this broad forest region, although there are many examples of striking similarities on widely distant landscapes. Exotic species, climate change, unnatural stand-replacing wildfires, and other factors will likely continue to degrade or eradicate old growth in many areas. As a policy of fire exclusion is proving to be unsustainable, mechanical tree thinning, prescribed fire, or wildland fire use will likely be key options for forestalling continued eradication of old growth by severe crown fires. For many practical and societal reasons, the wildland-urban interface may afford some of the most immediate opportunities for re

  5. OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) oil demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntington, H.G.

    1993-01-01

    Econometric response surfaces for nine different world oil models are estimated for aggregate oil demand with in the developed countries of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The estimates are based upon scenario results reported for the 1989-2010 period in a recent model comparison study. The response surface approach provides a parsimonious summary of model responses. It enables one to estimate long-run price elasticities directly rather than to infer such responses from 20-year cross-scenario results. It also shows more directly the significant effect of initial demand conditions (in 1988) on future oil demand growth. Due to the dynamic nature of the oil demand response, past prices exert a strongly positive effect on future oil demands in some models, but little or even negative effect in other models. On the basis of this finding, we urge demand modellers to be much more explicit about what their systems reveal about the extent of disequilibrium embedded in their model's starting oil demand conditions. (author)

  6. Growth of soybean at future tropospheric ozone concentrations decreases canopy evapotranspiration and soil water depletion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernacchi, Carl J., E-mail: bernacch@illinois.edu [Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Institute for Genomic Biology and Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Leakey, Andrew D.B. [Institute for Genomic Biology and Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Kimball, Bruce A. [USDA-ARS US Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, 21881 N. Cardon Lane, Maricopa, AZ 85238 (United States); Ort, Donald R. [Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Institute for Genomic Biology and Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2011-06-15

    Tropospheric ozone is increasing in many agricultural regions resulting in decreased stomatal conductance and overall biomass of sensitive crop species. These physiological effects of ozone forecast changes in evapotranspiration and thus in the terrestrial hydrological cycle, particularly in intercontinental interiors. Soybean plots were fumigated with ozone to achieve concentrations above ambient levels over five growing seasons in open-air field conditions. Mean season increases in ozone concentrations ([O{sub 3}]) varied between growing seasons from 22 to 37% above background concentrations. The objective of this experiment was to examine the effects of future [O{sub 3}] on crop ecosystem energy fluxes and water use. Elevated [O{sub 3}] caused decreases in canopy evapotranspiration resulting in decreased water use by as much as 15% in high ozone years and decreased soil water removal. In addition, ozone treatment resulted in increased sensible heat flux in all years indicative of day-time increase in canopy temperature of up to 0.7 deg. C. - Highlights: > Globally, tropospheric ozone is currently and will likely continue to increase into the future. > We examine the impact of elevated ozone on water use by soybean at the SoyFACE research facility. > High ozone grown soybean had reduced rates of evapotranspiration and higher soil moisture. > Increases in ozone have the potential to impact the hydrologic cycle where these crops are grown. - Soybean grown in elevated concentrations of ozone is shown to evapotranspire less water compared with soybean canopies grown under current atmospheric conditions.

  7. Growth of soybean at future tropospheric ozone concentrations decreases canopy evapotranspiration and soil water depletion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernacchi, Carl J.; Leakey, Andrew D.B.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Ort, Donald R.

    2011-01-01

    Tropospheric ozone is increasing in many agricultural regions resulting in decreased stomatal conductance and overall biomass of sensitive crop species. These physiological effects of ozone forecast changes in evapotranspiration and thus in the terrestrial hydrological cycle, particularly in intercontinental interiors. Soybean plots were fumigated with ozone to achieve concentrations above ambient levels over five growing seasons in open-air field conditions. Mean season increases in ozone concentrations ([O 3 ]) varied between growing seasons from 22 to 37% above background concentrations. The objective of this experiment was to examine the effects of future [O 3 ] on crop ecosystem energy fluxes and water use. Elevated [O 3 ] caused decreases in canopy evapotranspiration resulting in decreased water use by as much as 15% in high ozone years and decreased soil water removal. In addition, ozone treatment resulted in increased sensible heat flux in all years indicative of day-time increase in canopy temperature of up to 0.7 deg. C. - Highlights: → Globally, tropospheric ozone is currently and will likely continue to increase into the future. → We examine the impact of elevated ozone on water use by soybean at the SoyFACE research facility. → High ozone grown soybean had reduced rates of evapotranspiration and higher soil moisture. → Increases in ozone have the potential to impact the hydrologic cycle where these crops are grown. - Soybean grown in elevated concentrations of ozone is shown to evapotranspire less water compared with soybean canopies grown under current atmospheric conditions.

  8. The present status and future growth of maintenance in US manufacturing: results from a pilot survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xiaoning; Siegel, David; Weiss, Brian A; Gamel, Ellen; Wang, Wei; Lee, Jay; Ni, Jun

    A research study was conducted (1) to examine the practices employed by US manufacturers to achieve productivity goals and (2) to understand what level of intelligent maintenance technologies and strategies are being incorporated into these practices. This study found that the effectiveness and choice of maintenance strategy were strongly correlated to the size of the manufacturing enterprise; there were large differences in adoption of advanced maintenance practices and diagnostics and prognostics technologies between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Despite their greater adoption of maintenance practices and technologies, large manufacturing organizations have had only modest success with respect to diagnostics and prognostics and preventive maintenance projects. The varying degrees of success with respect to preventative maintenance programs highlight the opportunity for larger manufacturers to improve their maintenance practices and use of advanced prognostics and health management (PHM) technology. The future outlook for manufacturing PHM technology among the manufacturing organizations considered in this study was overwhelmingly positive; many manufacturing organizations have current and planned projects in this area. Given the current modest state of implementation and positive outlook for this technology, gaps, future trends, and roadmaps for manufacturing PHM and maintenance strategy are presented.

  9. Price freezes, durables and residential electricity demand - Evidence from the Greater Buenos Aires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casarin, Ariel; Delfino, Maria Eugenia

    2010-09-15

    This paper examines the determinants of residential electricity demand in the Greater Buenos Aires between 1997 and 2006. During the second half of this period, residential tariffs remained nominally fixed, while an income boom boosted up the sales of durables. This study differs from previous works in that it explicitly considers the impact of the stock of air-conditioners on residential demand. The paper reports short- and long-run elasticities and examines the contribution of prices and durables to recent demand growth. Simulations illustrate the impact of prices and durables on future demand.

  10. Exploring energy consumption and demand in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, Ying; Xia, Yan

    2012-01-01

    China has been experiencing industrialization and urbanization since reform and opening of its economy in 1978. Energy consumption in the country has featured issues such as a coal-dominated energy mix, low energy efficiency and high emissions. Thus, it is of great importance to explore the factors driving the increase in energy consumption in the past two decades and estimate the potential for decreasing energy demands in the future. In this paper a hybrid energy input–output model is used to decompose driving factors to identify how these factors impact changes in energy intensity. A modified RAS approach is applied to project energy requirements in a BAU scenario and an alternative scenario. The results show that energy input mix, industry structure and technology improvements have major influences on energy demand. Energy demand in China will continue to increase at a rapid rate if the economy develops as in the past decades, and is projected to reach 4.7 billion tce in 2020. However, the huge potential for a decrease cannot be neglected, since growth could be better by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure and enhancing technology improvements. The total energy demand could be less than 4.0 billion tce in 2020. -- Highlights: ► In this paper a hybrid energy input–output model is used to decompose driving factors to China’s energy intensity change. ► A modified RAS approach is applied to project energy requirements in China. ► The results show that energy input mix, industry structure and technology improvements have major influences on energy demand. ► Energy demand in China will reach 4.7 billion ton in 2020 if the economy develops as in the past decades. ► There is a huge potential for a decrease of energy demand by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure and enhancing technology improvements.

  11. Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    John R. Jones; George A. Schier

    1985-01-01

    This chapter considers aspen growth as a process, and discusses some characteristics of the growth and development of trees and stands. For the most part, factors affecting growth are discussed elsewhere, particularly in the GENETICS AND VARIATION chapter and in chapters in PART 11. ECOLOGY. Aspen growth as it relates to wood production is examined in the WOOD RESOURCE...

  12. Size, Value and Business Cycle Variables. The Three-Factor Model and Future Economic Growth: Evidence from an Emerging Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fahad Ali

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper empirically investigates three different methods to construct factors and identifies some pitfalls that arise in the application of Fama-French’s three-factor model to the Pakistani stock returns. We find that the special features in Pakistan significantly affect size and value factors and also influence the explanatory power of the three-factor model. Additionally, the paper examines the ability of the three factors to predict the future growth of Pakistan’s economy. Using monthly data of both financial and non-financial companies between 2002 and 2016, the article empirically investigates and finds that: (1 size and book-to-market factors exist in the Pakistani stock market, two mimic portfolios SMB and HML generate a return of 9.15% and 12.27% per annum, respectively; (2 adding SMB and HML factors into the model meaningfully increases the explanatory power of the model; and (3 the model’s factors, except for value factor, predict future gross domestic product (GDP growth of Pakistan and remain robust. Our results are robust across sub-periods, risk regimes, and under three different methods of constructing the factors.

  13. Ontario demand forecast from January 2004 to December 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This document examined the demand forecast for electricity on the Independent Market Operator (IMO)-controlled grid in Ontario for the period 2004-2013. It serves as an assessment tool to determine whether existing and proposed generation and transmission facilities in the province will be sufficient to meet future electricity needs. Changes in methodology have been made to allow for an hourly peak versus the previously reported 20-minute peak value. Actual data through to the end of October 2002 was used to re-estimate energy demand. Compared to other developed countries, the outlook for the Canadian economy is optimistic. In addition, the economic forecast is better than that which formed the basis of the last ten-year forecast. Energy demand in the median growth scenario is increasing at an annual rate of 1.1 per cent rather than 0.9 per cent for the forecasted period of 2003-2012. The combination of a higher growth rate and a higher starting point results in a 2010 forecast of 168 TWh. It is expected that peak demand will grow faster than in the previous forecast. Summer peak demand averaging an annual growth of 1.3 per cent is forecasted for the period 2003-2012, with winter peak demand averaging a growth of 0.8 per cent. Under normal weather conditions, the electricity system is expected to peak in the summer of 2005 due to the continued demand for cooling load. However, under an extreme weather scenario, the system is already summer peaking. The improved economic outlook and higher starting point resulted in a higher forecast for energy. The electricity system is expected to winter peak during the first years of the forecasted period. The heating load is not expected to experience rapid growth in the next few years. 15 tabs., 14 figs

  14. Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  15. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  16. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Neumann

    Full Text Available Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential

  17. Energy transition, a new French energy model. Future energies, green growth, sustainable jobs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Royal, Segolene

    2014-01-01

    This publication introduces the new French energy policy for energy transition. It presents and comments the main orientations defined for this policy and which are at the base of the French law on energy transition for a green growth. Thus, it addresses the following topics: to define common objectives for a successful energy transition, to strengthen France's energy independence and to struggle against climate change; to better insulate buildings to save energy, to reduce energy bills and to create jobs; to develop clean transports to improve air quality and to protect the health of French people; to promote renewable energies to diversify energies and to valorise resources of French territories; to struggle against wastage and to promote circular economy from product design to product recycling; to simplify and clarify procedures aimed at improving efficiency and competitiveness; to strengthen nuclear safety and citizen information; and to provide citizen, enterprises, territories and the State with the power to act together

  18. Nano-technology contributions towards the development of high performance radioisotope generators: The future promise to meet the continuing clinical demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakr, Tamer M; Nawar, Mohamed F; Fasih, T W; El-Bayoumy, S; Abd El-Rehim, H A

    2017-11-01

    Nanostructured materials attracted considerable attention because of its high surface area to volume ratio resulting from their nano-scale dimensions. This class of sorbents is expected to have a potential impact on enhancement the efficacy of radioisotope generators for diagnostic and therapeutic applications in nuclear medicine. This review provides a summary on the importance of nanostructured materials as effective sorbents for the development of clinical-scale radioisotope generators and outlining the assessment of recent developments, key challenges and promising access to the near future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Unloved, but indispensable. Supply and demand of petroleum in the future energy mix; Ungeliebt, aber unentbehrlich. Bedarf und Produktion von Mineraloel im kuenftigen Energiemix

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haendschke, Stefan; Schuster, Michael; Rumpke, Christian A. (comps.)

    2011-09-15

    Against the background of the targeted reduction of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide as well as the discussion about the future security of supply of petroleum increasingly possibilities of a 'post-fossil' economy are addressed in the policy and public. In doing so, the supply of petroleum products and their potentials have to be considered. With this in mind, the contribution under consideration examines the role of domestic refineries from the viewpoint of energy efficiency, security of supply and integration of renewable energies in Germany.

  20. Demand Moderation in Military Communication Networks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Blackmore, Perry

    2002-01-01

    .... Demand moderation is the term used to encompass the array of mechanisms aimed at achieving this end. Integrated Defence networks of the future should benefit enormously from demand moderation mechanisms.

  1. Offshore Brazil: forcing the path to the future managing supply chain challenges to ensure long-term growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hillegeist, Paul H.; Pickard, Matt [Quest Offshore Resources, Inc., Sugar Land, TX (United States)

    2008-07-01

    Over the last 10 years, worldwide demand for energy has seen a significant increase. This accelerated growth has placed a tremendous strain on the offshore oil and gas E and P industry, as operators strive to find and develop new accumulations to help meet rising global energy demand, while overcoming many substantial challenges. Whether those challenges come from limited manufacturing and construction supply or limited human capital, these issues will need to be addressed in order for the industry to continue to push forward at a record pace. Additionally, the industry will have to rely heavily on new and emerging technologies, some of which are largely unproven. Nowhere is this dedication to technological achievement more evident than in the deep waters offshore Brazil. Recent discoveries have placed an added degree of focus on the technologies that will be needed to help develop these fields in a commercially viable manner. Given Brazil's track record for innovation and accomplishment, the region is poised to present a number of industry-wide advancements over the next 10 to 15 years as Brazil continues to be a trend setter for worldwide energy security. A thorough understanding of these issues, as well as the potential solutions to overcoming them, is critical to companies wishing to participate in the highly rewarding Brazilian offshore sector. This presentation will strive to detail the underlying factors that drive industry activity, including burgeoning commercial opportunities for service and supply companies, as well as addressing the technologies currently in progress that will help move the industry into ultra-deep water exploration and development. (author)

  2. Impact assessment of a maternal health project in a megacity, Nigeria: toward a future with more demand for maternal health services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuoka, Sadatoshi; Koga, Sumiko; Suzui, Emiko; Tsukada, Yoshiko; Ohashi, Kazutomo; Johnson, Taiwo

    2017-10-01

    To improve the quantity and quality of maternal health services in Lagos State, Nigeria having a maternal mortality ratio of 555 per 100 000 live births, a four-year project was implemented since February 2010. The major activity of the project was training for both the service supply and demand sides. This study aimed to examine the impact of the project on coverages and quality of the services in target areas, and guide statewide policies. The Cochran-Armitage test for trend was applied to understand trends in the service coverages during 2009-2013. The same test was performed to analyse trends in the proportions of perineal conditions (i.e. intact or tear) and to evaluate variations in midwives' snkill during 2011-2013. The paired t-test was used to analyse changes in midwives' knowledge. The project interventions contributed to a significant increase in the overall service coverages, including improvements in midwifery knowledge and possibly in their skills. However, the service coverage was still limited as of the termination of the project. To instal the interventions and maximise the effect of them state-wide, it is recommended to undertake five tasks: (i) establishment of public primary health centres offering 24-h maternal health services; (ii) redeployment and recruitment of public health personnel; (iii) expansion of midwifery trainings and continuous education by the local trainers; (iv) review of grass-roots level activities; and (v) scrutiny of barriers to maternal health services. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Conceptual Framework and Computational Research of Hierarchical Residential Household Water Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baodeng Hou

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Although the quantity of household water consumption does not account for a huge proportion of the total water consumption amidst socioeconomic development, there has been a steadily increasing trend due to population growth and improved urbanization standards. As such, mastering the mechanisms of household water demand, scientifically predicting trends of household water demand, and implementing reasonable control measures are key focuses of current urban water management. Based on the categorization and characteristic analysis of household water, this paper used Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs to establish a level and grade theory of household water demand, whereby household water is classified into three levels (rigid water demand, flexible water demand, and luxury water demand and three grades (basic water demand, reasonable water demand, and representational water demand. An in-depth analysis was then carried out on the factors that influence the computation of household water demand, whereby equations for different household water categories were established, and computations for different levels of household water were proposed. Finally, observational experiments on household water consumption were designed, and observation and simulation computations were performed on three typical households in order to verify the scientific outcome and rationality of the computation of household water demand. The research findings contribute to the enhancement and development of prediction theories on water demand, and they are of high theoretical and realistic significance in terms of scientifically predicting future household water demand and fine-tuning the management of urban water resources.

  4. U.S. natural gas liquids supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urquhart, W.L.

    1996-01-01

    United States supply and demand situation for natural gas liquids (NGL) was reviewed. The presentation was in four parts: (1) key assumptions for U.S. NGL supply and demand, (2) specific balances for ethane, propane, and butane, (3) some of the key changes now occurring at the customer level, and how these might affect NGLs, and (4) a suggestion of where the future might deviate from projections so severely that projections could be fundamentally wrong. Despite such 'exogenous variables' higher demand projections downstream in the chemical industry were said to be appearing, albeit in scattered fashion. It was estimated that even fractionally higher economic growth could add 3.5 billion pounds to ethylene demand in the USA in the year 2005. 15 figs

  5. Global health indicators and maternal health futures: The case of Intrauterine Growth Restriction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Susan L

    2015-01-01

    Public health indicators generally operate in the world as credible, apolitical and authoritative. But indicators are less stable than they appear. Clinical critiques of Intrauterine Growth Restriction (IUGR) criteria have been forthcoming for decades. This article, though, takes up the measuring and calculation gradients of IUGR in the ultrasound machine itself, including the software algorithms that identify IUGR. One hospital where research was conducted incorrectly predicted pathological birth outcomes 14 of 14 times. We are at a historical moment when the global use of prenatal diagnostic ultrasound for the express purpose of assessing IUGR is set to escalate. Medical imaging device corporations like Siemens, Toshiba, General Electric and Phillips are quite literally banking on it, and new forms of ultrasound technology and diagnostic software are increasingly available on smartphones, tablets and laptops. Clinical guidelines for IUGR--assumed to be authoritative and evidence-based--are evolving right along with the installation throughout the world of the technology capable of diagnosing it. Maternal malnutrition remains the single strongest predictive factor for IUGR, regardless of the technological investments currently amassing to identify the indicator, which is cause for a reassessment of priority spending and investment.

  6. Therapies based on inhibitors of the epidermal growth factor receptor: enclosing the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz, Arlhee; Lage, Agustin

    2007-01-01

    The Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) is considered an important target for rational drug design due to its key role in numerous tumors. Potential contribution of EGFR-related signaling pathways to promote tumorigenic processes, including cell proliferation, angiogenesis, and resistance to apoptosis has been well established. Two classes of anti-EGFR agents in late-stage clinical testing include monoclonal antibodies against extracellular EGFR domain (Cetuximab, Nimotuzumab) and small molecules tyrosine kinase inhibitors, which inhibit the receptor enzyme activity (Gefitinib, Erlotinib). A considerable body of evidence has emerged since its introduction in the treatment of cancer patients. However, important questions such as reliable surrogate markers to predict response to the treatment, or optimal sequence and combination of these agents with conventional therapies remain to be addressed. Identify and validate predictive factors to select patients likely to respond to EGFR inhibitors, such as mutations that confer resistance versus those associated with sensitivity is required. A better understanding of molecular mechanisms associated with antitumor activity will useful to predict the interaction of these agents with other therapies in order to avoid antagonisms or overlapping effects resulting in no adding effects. Finally, the benefits derived from EGFR inhibitors as first-line therapy in selected populations, and the optimal doses and ways to delivery to the tumor site resulting in optimal target modulation should be established by the ongoing investigation. (Author)

  7. Extended Duration Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Inhibition in the Eye: Failures, Successes, and Future Possibilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Michael W

    2018-01-27

    Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) plays a pivotal role in the development of neovascularization and edema from several common chorioretinal vascular conditions. The intravitreally injected drugs (aflibercept, bevacizumab, conbercept, pegaptanib, and ranibizumab) used to treat these conditions improve the visual acuity and macular morphology in most patients. Monthly or bimonthly injections were administered in the phase III pivotal trials but physicians usually individualize therapy with pro re nata (PRN) or treat and extend regimens. Despite these lower frequency treatment regimens, frequent injections and clinic visits are still needed to produce satisfactory outcomes. Newly developed drugs and refillable reservoirs with favorable pharmacokinetic profiles may extend durations of action and require fewer office visits. However, we have learned from previous experiences that the longer durations of action seen in strategically designed phase III trials often do not translate to less frequent injections in real-life clinical practice. Unfortunately, long-acting therapies that produce soluble VEGF receptors (encapsulated cell technology and adenovirus injected DNA) have failed in phase II trials. The development of longer duration therapies remains a difficult and frustrating process, and frequent drug injections are likely to remain the standard-of-care for years to come.

  8. Present Status and Future Growth of Advanced Maintenance Technology and Strategy in US Manufacturing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xiaoning; Weiss, Brian A; Siegel, David; Lee, Jay

    2016-01-01

    The goals of this paper are to 1) examine the current practices of diagnostics, prognostics, and maintenance employed by United States (U.S.) manufacturers to achieve productivity and quality targets and 2) to understand the present level of maintenance technologies and strategies that are being incorporated into these practices. A study is performed to contrast the impact of various industry-specific factors on the effectiveness and profitability of the implementation of prognostics and health management technologies, and maintenance strategies using both surveys and case studies on a sample of U.S. manufacturing firms ranging from small to mid-sized enterprises (SMEs) to large-sized manufacturing enterprises in various industries. The results obtained provide important insights on the different impacts of specific factors on the successful adoption of these technologies between SMEs and large manufacturing enterprises. The varying degrees of success with respect to current maintenance programs highlight the opportunity for larger manufacturers to improve maintenance practices and consider the use of advanced prognostics and health management (PHM) technology. This paper also provides the existing gaps, barriers, future trends, and roadmaps for manufacturing PHM technology and maintenance strategy.

  9. Land use efficiency: anticipating future demand for land-sector greenhouse gas emissions abatement and managing trade-offs with agriculture, water, and biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Brett A; Crossman, Neville D; Nolan, Martin; Li, Jing; Navarro, Javier; Connor, Jeffery D

    2015-11-01

    Competition for land is increasing, and policy needs to ensure the efficient supply of multiple ecosystem services from land systems. We modelled the spatially explicit potential future supply of ecosystem services in Australia's intensive agricultural land in response to carbon markets under four global outlooks from 2013 to 2050. We assessed the productive efficiency of greenhouse gas emissions abatement, agricultural production, water resources, and biodiversity services and compared these to production possibility frontiers (PPFs). While interacting commodity markets and carbon markets produced efficient outcomes for agricultural production and emissions abatement, more efficient outcomes were possible for water resources and biodiversity services due to weak price signals. However, when only two objectives were considered as per typical efficiency assessments, efficiency improvements involved significant unintended trade-offs for the other objectives and incurred substantial opportunity costs. Considering multiple objectives simultaneously enabled the identification of land use arrangements that were efficient over multiple ecosystem services. Efficient land use arrangements could be selected that meet society's preferences for ecosystem service provision from land by adjusting the metric used to combine multiple services. To effectively manage competition for land via land use efficiency, market incentives are needed that effectively price multiple ecosystem services. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Protection of drinking water reservoirs in buried glacial valleys in the ice-marginal landscape for securing future demand in the European perspective (ENCORE-Project).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smit, F. W. H.; Bregman, E. P. H.

    2012-04-01

    Quaternary glaciations have left a significant sedimentological fingerprint in the subsurface of north Europe, in the form of buried glacial valleys. These structures are important drinking water reservoirs for millions of people in the ice-marginal landscape, but are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic pollution (nitrate, sulphate and organic pollutants) and geogenic pollution (salinization). That is one of the conclusion of a recent overview study in the IML of northern Europe from the North Sea to the southern Baltic area. Adequate policy making is yet not possible for several reasons: - Large amounts of data are needed to get a good grip on the lateral continuity of the complex infill. - The BurVal Working Group (2006) has shown that a combination of high resolution seismic survey, together with transient electromagnetic (TEM) surveys can provide realistic data for 3D hydrogeological models. However, these data have not yet been retrieved on a European scale. - Available borehole data can only be used as control points in 3D hydrological models, since the infill of buried glacial valleys is often lateral too complex to make sound interpolations possible. Pollution in buried glacial valleys crosses national borders in northern Europe and therefore national geological surveys have to cooperate in a newly formed European project on protection of these structures. The ENCORE - project (Environmental Conference of the European Regions) has shown in the past that it can facilitate fruitful European cooperation, which is urgently needed due to the costs of gathering data and due to knowledge gaps between different countries. By working together in a European context, these problems can be reduced so that better policy making is possible in order to secure our future drinking water availability.

  11. Heparin-Binding EGF-like Growth Factor (HB-EGF) Therapy for Intestinal Injury: Application and Future Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jixin; Su, Yanwei; Zhou, Yu; Besner, Gail E.

    2014-01-01

    Throughout the past 20 years, we have been investigating the potential therapeutic roles of heparin-binding EGF-like growth factor (HB-EGF), a member of the epidermal growth factor family, in various models of intestinal injury including necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), intestinal ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) injury, and hemorrhagic shock and resuscitation (HS/R). Our studies have demonstrated that HB-EGF acts as an effective mitogen, a restitution-inducing reagent, a cellular trophic factor, an anti-apoptotic protein and a vasodilator, via its effects on various cell types in the intestine. In the current paper, we have reviewed the application and therapeutic effects of HB-EGF in three classic animal models of intestinal injury, with particular emphasis on its protection of the intestines from NEC. Additionally, we have summarized the protective functions of HB-EGF on various target cells in the intestine. Lastly, we have provided a brief discussion focusing on the future development of HB-EGF clinical applications for the treatment of various forms of intestinal injury including NEC. PMID:24345808

  12. Shellfish face uncertain future in high CO2 world: influence of acidification on oyster larvae calcification and growth in estuaries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Whitman Miller

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide by 36% during the past 200 years. One third of all anthropogenic CO(2 has been absorbed by the oceans, reducing pH by about 0.1 of a unit and significantly altering their carbonate chemistry. There is widespread concern that these changes are altering marine habitats severely, but little or no attention has been given to the biota of estuarine and coastal settings, ecosystems that are less pH buffered because of naturally reduced alkalinity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To address CO(2-induced changes to estuarine calcification, veliger larvae of two oyster species, the Eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica, and the Suminoe oyster (Crassostrea ariakensis were grown in estuarine water under four pCO(2 regimes, 280, 380, 560 and 800 microatm, to simulate atmospheric conditions in the pre-industrial era, present, and projected future concentrations in 50 and 100 years respectively. CO(2 manipulations were made using an automated negative feedback control system that allowed continuous and precise control over the pCO(2 in experimental aquaria. Larval growth was measured using image analysis, and calcification was measured by chemical analysis of calcium in their shells. C. virginica experienced a 16% decrease in shell area and a 42% reduction in calcium content when pre-industrial and end of 21(st century pCO(2 treatments were compared. C. ariakensis showed no change to either growth or calcification. Both species demonstrated net calcification and growth, even when aragonite was undersaturated, a result that runs counter to previous expectations for invertebrate larvae that produce aragonite shells. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Our results suggest that temperate estuarine and coastal ecosystems are vulnerable to the expected changes in water chemistry due to elevated atmospheric CO(2 and that biological responses to acidification, especially calcifying

  13. Early Life Growth Predictors of Childhood Adiposity Trajectories and Future Risk for Obesity: Birth to Twenty Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munthali, Richard J; Kagura, Juliana; Lombard, Zané; Norris, Shane A

    2017-10-01

    There is growing evidence of variations in adiposity trajectories among individuals, but the influence of early life growth patterns on these trajectories is underresearched in low- and middle-income countries. Therefore, our aim was to examine the association between early life conditional weight gain and childhood adiposity trajectories. We previously identified distinct adiposity trajectories (four for girls and three for boys) in black South African children (boys = 877; girls = 947). The association between the trajectories and early life growth patterns, and future obesity risk was assessed by multivariate linear and multinomial logistic and logistic regressions. Conditional weight gain independent of height was computed for infancy (0-2 years) and early childhood (2-4 years). Conditional weight gain before 5 years of age was significantly associated with early onset of obesity or overweight (excess weight) BMI trajectories in both boys and girls. In girls, greater conditional weight gain in infancy was associated with increased relative risk of being in the early-onset obese to morbid obese trajectory, with relative risk ratios of 2.03 (95% confidence interval: 1.17-3.52) compared to belonging to a BMI trajectory in the normal range. Boys and girls in the early-onset obesity or overweight BMI trajectories were more likely to be overweight or obese in early adulthood. Excessive weight gain in infancy and early childhood, independent of linear growth, predicts childhood and adolescent BMI trajectories toward obesity. These results underscore the importance of early life factors in the development of obesity and other NCDs in later life.

  14. An energy supply and demand model for South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silberberg, R.B.

    1981-08-01

    The topic of this thesis is the development of a model of energy supply and demand in South Africa to project energy flows up to the year 2005 and also to assess the implications of policy actions. In this thesis, a method of determining energy flows taking generally accepted economic and technological factors into account is developed. Also, various situations are tested, in order to determine the following: 1) Likely energy flows up to 2005, as well as possible upper and lower bounds. 2) Significant final demand sectors, in terms of energy requirements. 3) The effects of changes in supply and demand sector technology. 4) The implications of policy options such as enengy independence. Owing to the different characteristics of the energy supply and demand sectors, the following techniques were used: 1) Energy demand sectors. 2) Energy supply sectors. 3) Supply/demand equilibration 4) Output. Through successive runs of the model, the policy-maker is able to indentify likely values of energy flows, as well as upper and lower boundaries given the described set of assumptions. The following statements are made as conclusions: 1) The growth rate of domectic coal demand is likely to be 5,5 % per annum up to 2005. 2) The Iron and Steel industry and the Mining industry have the greatest potential effect on coal demand. 3) The coal growth rate stated above implies certain improvements in coal to liquid fuel and electricity conversion. 4) The coal demands of oil energy independence are listed, highlighting the fact that major coal exports and energy independence may be mutually exclusive. Other conclusions regarding capital requirements, oil imports and coking coal utilization are described. The model permits a consistent and inteqrated forecast of national energy flows to be made, providing the policymaker with projections that include the effects of uncertainty with regard to future technologies and economic output. This feature is crucial for policy formulation

  15. Sulphur demand growing. [Alberta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-01-20

    Sulfur markets look better going into 1975 than they have for several years, as North American demand growth is being filled largely by elemental sulfur producers and overseas. Demand is rising as fast as the capacity of Canadian transportation and handling facilities. It will take a long time to make much of a dent in the total Alberta stockpile of 14 million long tons at the end of 1974, with involuntary production from sour gas plants exceeding sales volume since 1972. However, there is some encouragement in the approaching peakout of production combined with a substantial increase in price since the low point of the cycle at the beginning of 1973, and a predicted rise of at least 20% in domestic (North American) sales this year over 1974.

  16. Modeling and analysis of long term energy demands in residential sector of pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rashid, T.; Sahir, M.H.

    2015-01-01

    Residential sector is the core among the energy demand sectors in Pakistan. Currently, various techniques are being used worldwide to assess future energy demands including integrated system modeling (ISM). Therefore, the current study is focused on implementation of ISM approach for future energy demand analysis of Pakistan's residential sector in terms of increase in population, rapid urbanization, household size and type, and increase/decrease in GDP. A detailed business-as-usual (BAU) model is formulated in TIMES energy modeling framework using different factors like growth in future energy services, end-use technology characterization, and restricted fuel supplies. Additionally, the developed model is capable to compare the projected energy demand under different scenarios e.g. strong economy, weak economy and energy efficiency. The implementation of ISM proved a viable approach to predict the future energy demands of Pakistan's residential sector. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the energy consumption in the residential sector would be 46.5 Mtoe (Million Ton of Oil Equivalent) in 2040 compared to 23 Mtoe of the base year (2007) along with 600% increase in electricity demands. The study further maps the potential residential energy policies to congregate the future demands. (author)

  17. Dietetics supply and demand: 2010-2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooker, Roderick S; Williams, James H; Papneja, Jesleen; Sen, Namrata; Hogan, Paul

    2012-03-01

    The Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, in conjunction with the Commission on Dietetic Registration (CDR), invited The Lewin Group to undertake an analysis of the dietetics workforce. The purpose of the workforce study was to develop a model that can project the supply and demand for both registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs) (collectively referred to as CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners) as the result of various key drivers of change. The research team was asked to quantify key market factors where possible and to project likely paths for the evolution of workforce supply and demand, as well as to assess the implications of the findings. This article drew on the survey research conducted by Readex Research and futurist organizations such as Signature i and Trend Spot Consulting. Furthermore, members of the Dietetics Workforce Demand Task Force were a source of institutional and clinical information relevant to the credentialed dietetics workforce--including their opinions and judgment of the current state of the health care market for dietetic services, its future state, and factors affecting it, which were useful and were integrated with the objective sources of data. The model is flexible and accommodates the variation in how RDs and DTRs function in diverse practice areas. For purposes of this study and model, the dietetics workforce is composed of RDs and DTRs. This report presents the results of this workforce study and the methodology used to calculate the projected dietetics workforce supply and demand. The projections are based on historical trends and estimated future changes. Key findings of the study included the following: • The average age of all CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners in baseline supply (2010) is 44 years; approximately 96% are women. • Approximately 55% of CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners work in clinical dietetics. • The annual growth rate of supply of CDR

  18. Hydropower and the world's energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-11-01

    The potential role of hydropower in the context of world-wide demographic growth and increasing demand for energy, and the benefits inherent in hydroelectric power in comparison with other energy options are discussed. Environmental and social impacts, and examples of mitigation measures are reviewed. Recommendations regarding best practices in the future development of hydroelectric power projects proposed

  19. Voltage Controlled Dynamic Demand Response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhattarai, Bishnu Prasad; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Mahat, Pukar

    2013-01-01

    Future power system is expected to be characterized by increased penetration of intermittent sources. Random and rapid fluctuations in demands together with intermittency in generation impose new challenges for power balancing in the existing system. Conventional techniques of balancing by large...... central or dispersed generations might not be sufficient for future scenario. One of the effective methods to cope with this scenario is to enable demand response. This paper proposes a dynamic voltage regulation based demand response technique to be applied in low voltage (LV) distribution feeders....... An adaptive dynamic model has been developed to determine composite voltage dependency of an aggregated load on feeder level. Following the demand dispatch or control signal, optimum voltage setting at the LV substation is determined based on the voltage dependency of the load. Furthermore, a new technique...

  20. Social Demand of New Generation Information Network: Introduction to High Spectral Density Optical Communication Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamiya, Takeshi; Miyazaki, Tetsuya; Kubota, Fumito

    In this section, first, current situation of traffic growth and penetration of broadband services are described. Then social demand, technical issues, and research trend for future information network in the United States, Europe, and Japan are described. Finally, a detailed construction of this book is introduced.

  1. Regional overview of Latin American and Caribbean energy production, consumption, and future growth. Report series No. 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, K.

    1994-07-01

    The Latin American and Caribbean region - comprising Mexico, Central and South America, and the Caribbean - is relatively well endowed with energy resources, although the distribution of these resources is uneven across countries. The region produces more energy than it consumes, and the surplus energy, which amounts to 3.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), is mostly oil. While the region`s total oil (crude and products) exports decreased from 4.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 1981 to 3.8 million b/d in 1992, its net oil exports increased from about 1.6 million b/d in 1981 to 2.8 million b/d in 1992. In 1993, the surplus oil in Latin America and the Caribbean remained at 2.8 million b/d. This report analyzes the key issues of the Latin American and Caribbean energy industry and presents the future outlook for oil, gas, coal, hydroelectricity, and nuclear power developments in the region. In addition, the status of biomass energy, geothermal, and other noncommercial energy in the region will be briefly discussed in the context of overall energy development. The rest of the report is organized as follows: Section II assesses the current situation of Latin American and Caribbean energy production and consumption, covering primary energy supply, primary energy consumption, downstream petroleum sector development, and natural gas utilization. Section III presents the results of our study of future energy growth in Latin America. Important hydrocarbons policy issues in the region are discussed in Section IV, and a summary and concluding remarks are provided in Section V.

  2. Meeting the demands of future colliders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanar, George [LeCroy Corporation (United States)

    1990-07-15

    Physicists are very aware of the challenge of developing and building detectors and instrumentation for the next generation of proton colliders - the US Superconducting Supercollider (SSC) and CERN's LHC. The accompanying articles highlight special problems in electronics and in computing, but the effort underway extends over a wider front.

  3. Future demands for an Industrialized Architecture?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beim, Anne

    2011-01-01

    these questions raise a wide-spread discussion, one could argue that the building industry can benefit from different ways of architectural synthesis thinking as a basis for improving. This understood in such a way that industrialized manufacturing technologies and products should be driven by ideas...

  4. Holograms and authentication: meeting future demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lancaster, Ian M.

    2004-06-01

    The use of holograms as authentication or security devices is the most valuable application of holograms yet devised. In 20 years, this has developed from the first use of a hologram on credit cards, to the situation today where governments turn to holograms as a key security feature on the protected documents they issue, including banknotes, identity documents and tax banderols. At the same time, holograms (and related devices) are the most recognised visible feature used to authenticate and protect branded and OEM products; this sector covers the gamut from CD jewel-box seals to the protection of safety-related items such as medicines and vehicle replacement parts. There has been creative synergy between the commercial suppliers of such holograms and the practical holography community. But new technologies are coming forward to challenge the role of holograms, a challenge that is aided by the counterfeiting of security holograms. What are the characteristics of those technologies and can holograms provide similar resources to users? Examples of collaboration between hologram producers and producers of other technologies to create combination devices suggest a possible route forward for holography to maintain its role in authentication and security. By scrutinising and adapting to needs, often by combination with other techniques, holographers may be able to retain their role in this important application.

  5. Meeting the demands of future colliders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanar, George

    1990-01-01

    Physicists are very aware of the challenge of developing and building detectors and instrumentation for the next generation of proton colliders - the US Superconducting Supercollider (SSC) and CERN's LHC. The accompanying articles highlight special problems in electronics and in computing, but the effort underway extends over a wider front

  6. Energy demand in 2013: take off in the USA, a setback in the European Union and some slowdown in growth for the BRICS, notably China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enerdata

    2014-01-01

    The highlight of the year 2013 was the dynamism of the USA's energy markets. Performance of the other OECD countries was subdued, with either stagnation or a decline in energy consumption. As for the BRICS, with China out in front, they continue to post sustained dynamic growth. To be noted: CO 2 emissions continued with their inexorable rise (+1.8% en 2013). (authors)

  7. Energy demand patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffmann, L; Schipper, L; Meyers, S; Sathaye, J; Hara, Y

    1984-05-01

    This report brings together three papers on energy demand presented at the Energy Research Priorities Seminar held in Ottawa on 8-10 August 1983. The first paper suggests a framework in which energy demand studies may be organized if they are to be useful in policy-making. Disaggregation and the analysis of the chain of energy transformations are possible paths toward more stable and reliable parameters. The second paper points to another factor that leads to instability in sectoral parameters, namely a changeover from one technology to another; insofar as technologies producing a product (or service) vary in their energy intensity, a technological shift will also change the energy intensity of the product. Rapid technological change is characteristic of some sectors in developing countries, and may well account for the high aggregate GDP-elasticities of energy consumption observed. The third paper begins with estimates of these elasticities, which were greater than one for all the member countries of the Asian Development Bank in 1961-78. The high elasticities, together with extreme oil dependence, made them vulnerable to the drastic rise in the oil price after 1973. The author distinguishes three diverging patterns of national experience. The oil-surplus countries naturally gained from the rise in the oil price. Among oil-deficit countries, the newly industrialized countries expanded their exports so rapidly that the oil crisis no longer worried them. For the rest, balance of payments adjustments became a prime concern of policy. Whether they dealt with the oil bill by borrowing, by import substitution, or by demand restraint, the impact of energy on their growth was unmistakable. The paper also shows why energy-demand studies, and energy studies in general, deserve to be taken seriously. 16 refs., 4 figs., 18 tabs.

  8. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  9. Some ideas on the energy demand in the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frot, J.

    2007-01-01

    The author reviews different scenarios to quench the worldwide demand for energy. 4 scenarios have been studied for the 2000-2100 period. The scenarios differ on the importance given to concepts like: -) the behaviour towards future generations, -) the solidarity between rich and poor countries, -) the acknowledgement of the climate change, -) the risk of energy dearth, -) the improvement of energy efficiency, -) the necessity of gross national product growth, -) the public acceptance of nuclear power, and -) CO 2 sequestration. One of the scenarios is extremely courageous: politicians and population are aware of the great problems that are looming and take the right decisions quite early. This scenario leads to a demand of 18 Gtep/year in 2100. In the worst scenario people are reluctant to any change in their way to use energy, this scenario leads to a demand of 49 Gtep/year

  10. Balancing needs. Global trends in uranium production and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolet, J.P.; Underhill, D.

    1998-01-01

    In many countries, uranium is a major energy resource, fueling nuclear power plants that collectively generate about 17% of the world's electricity. With global demand for energy especially electricity projected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, the price and availability of all energy sources, including uranium, are key components in the process of energy planning and decision-making. Particularly affecting the uranium market were changing projections about nuclear power's growth and the consequent demand for nuclear fuel; the emergence of a more integrated free market system including former centrally planned economies; and the emergence into the civilian market of uranium released from dismantled nuclear weapons. All these factors contributed to uncertainties in the commercial uranium market that raised questions about future fuel supplies for nuclear power plants. Signs today indicate that the situation is changing. The world uranium market is moving towards a more balanced relationship between supply and demand

  11. Projecting Electricity Demand in 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hostick, Donna J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Belzer, David B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Markel, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kintner-Meyer, Michael C. W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-07-01

    This paper describes the development of end-use electricity projections and load curves that were developed for the Renewable Electricity (RE) Futures Study (hereafter RE Futures), which explored the prospect of higher percentages (30% - 90%) of total electricity generation that could be supplied by renewable sources in the United States. As input to RE Futures, two projections of electricity demand were produced representing reasonable upper and lower bounds of electricity demand out to 2050. The electric sector models used in RE Futures required underlying load profiles, so RE Futures also produced load profile data in two formats: 8760 hourly data for the year 2050 for the GridView model, and in 2-year increments for 17 time slices as input to the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. The process for developing demand projections and load profiles involved three steps: discussion regarding the scenario approach and general assumptions, literature reviews to determine readily available data, and development of the demand curves and load profiles.

  12. Long term energy demand projection and potential for energy savings of Croatian tourism–catering trade sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irsag, Bojan; Pukšec, Tomislav; Duić, Neven

    2012-01-01

    Today, tourism represents one of the backbones of Croatian economy and one of the main factors of its growth. Combined with catering trade sector, tourism represents a significant energy consumer that has the tendencies of future growth. Since services sector, which tourism–catering trade sector is a part of, is not yet well described regarding future energy balances it would be very interesting to see how could possible future growth in tourism influence energy consumption of the services sector in Croatia. Through this paper long term energy demand projections of tourism–catering trade sector were studied with special emphasis on future growth of tourism in Croatia as well as different mechanisms that might lead to certain energy savings. Bottom-up approach was chosen as the most suitable one since it allows better quantification of different measures, technological or legal, that would influence future energy demand. Downside of this approach is extensive input data that is required to analyse and model future energy demand which is roughly divided into heating/cooling section and all other consumption. Results show that additional energy savings in the tourism–catering trade sector are possible if careful and rational demand side planning is in place. -- Highlights: ► Future energy demand of Croatian touristm–catering trade sector has been modelled. ► Model is roughly divided into two basic modes (heating/cooling and all other consumption). ► Different factors influencing future energy demand were implemented into the model. ► Possibilities for energy efficiency improvements have been presented.

  13. Demand of natural gas; methodology for their projection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, UPME

    1999-01-01

    The objective of integrated energetic planning process, is to propose political that assure the full supply of energy in the country, at competitive costs and with a rational use of the resources. Of there that it requires the periodic analysis of the information on the sectors of energy supplies and demand and on their interrelation with the economic, social and environmental environment. Among the variables that should stay upgraded during the planning process, it stands out the energy demand. The fact of to evaluate and to project demands goes to predict the consumer's of energy low uncertain conditions future behavior that it can affect the prospective results, so much in the short term as in the long term. One of the alternatives to face the uncertainty has more than enough future events it consists on building scenarios in those that values different from the variables that are considered with more incidences in the projected results participate. In the case of the energy, the variables that, generally, they are considered determinant, are the economic growth, the prices variation, the technological developments, the substitution among energy, the change of patterns of the population's consumption and the rational use of the energy. The application of the methodology of scenarios allows to settle down, for this case, bands of projection of the energy demand, in global form or for each energy type, specify in each sector and for each use. Once it is had the projection band, it is possible to determine the half growth of long term. The energy planning should respond in immediate form to the scenario changes, through the revision of the state projections. A frequent error, typical of the old sub-sector planning, consists on maintaining, in an irrational way, established growth percentages, when they intend new scenarios of economic growth

  14. System dynamics modelling of the European demand for bio-based plastics: An analysis of scaling and learning effects and framework conditions on price competitiveness and market growth

    OpenAIRE

    Horvat, Djerdj; Wydra, Sven

    2017-01-01

    Bio-based plastics are used as raw materials in a wide range of applications and provide potential for mitigating climate change by lowering CO2 emissions. However, because of the high production costs compared to fossil-based alternative products, they are currently not cost competitive on the market. Moreover, the decrease of oil price as main antecedent of fossil-based plastics has even been diminishing their competiveness. Thus, the future of bio-based plastics on the market depends on th...

  15. Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan Xiaoyu; Crookes, Roy J.

    2009-01-01

    Rapid growth of road vehicles, private vehicles in particular, has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand and imports, which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices, and a major contributor to China's GHG emission increase. This paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures. A detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector. The 'Business as Usual' scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The 'Best Case' scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control, fuel economy regulation, promoting diesel and gas vehicles, fuel tax and biofuel promotion, are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The total reduction potentials in the 'Best Case' scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated

  16. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  17. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  18. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  19. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  20. Supply and demand in the oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Favennec, J.P.

    2000-01-01

    The year 1998 was characterised a lower level of demand for energy in general and in articular for oil due to the Asian crisis. Within such a context; efforts at reducing production were not sufficient to prevent prices falling to their lowest levels since the first oil crisis. In 1999, we saw a complete reversal of this trend, with consumption back on a growth path and the new cuts in production agreed by OPEC being firmly implemented. These two factors have led to sustained increases in the price of oil, which, at the end of 1999, reached levels considered very high. Future prices will depend upon the durable nature of economic upturn and above all on continued discipline among the producer nations. (authors)

  1. The case for conserving oil resources: the fundamentals of supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, D.B.

    2000-01-01

    This article summarises the evidence for an oil price shock and argues that oil producers, both OPEC and non-OPEC, need to cut back oil production more, in order to conserve oil for the future and to avert sudden extreme movements in oil prices in the next five-to-ten years. Four physical fundamentals determine long-run changes in oil prices: supply, demand, technology and substitutes. We show that supply, technology and substitutes are limited and demand is growing strongly. As demand pushes against supply, prices will rise rapidly. It would be better to conserve oil now, in order to have a smoother transition to higher-priced oil in the future. In addition, oil is such a valuable resource for the worlds economies in general, that we should conserve it for future generations. The world, in its haste for economic growth, should support OPEC conservation efforts. (author)

  2. Psychopathology and tobacco demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farris, Samantha G; Aston, Elizabeth R; Zvolensky, Michael J; Abrantes, Ana M; Metrik, Jane

    2017-08-01

    Behavioral economic measurement of the relative value of tobacco (Cigarette Purchase Task; CPT) is used to examine individual differences in motivation for tobacco under certain contexts. Smokers with psychopathology, relative to those without, may demonstrate stronger demand for tobacco following a period of smoking deprivation, which could account for disparate rates of smoking and cessation among this subgroup. Participants (n=111) were community-recruited adult daily smokers who completed the CPT after a deprivation period of approximately 60min. Presence of psychopathology was assessed via clinical interview; 40.5% (n=45) of the sample met criteria for past-year psychological diagnosis. Specifically, 31.5% (n=35) had an emotional disorder (anxiety/depressive disorder), 17.1% (n=19) had a substance use disorder, and 19.1% of the sample had more than one disorder. Smokers with any psychopathology showed significantly higher intensity (demand at unrestricted cost; $0) and O max (peak expenditure for a drug) relative to smokers with no psychopathology. Intensity was significantly higher among smokers with an emotional disorder compared to those without. Smokers with a substance use disorder showed significantly higher intensity and O max , and lower elasticity, reflecting greater insensitivity to price increases. Having≥2 disorders was associated with higher intensity relative to having 1 or no disorders. Findings suggest that presence of psychopathology may be associated with greater and more persistent motivation to smoke. Future work is needed to explore the mechanism linking psychopathology to tobacco demand. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan S. Milojević

    2012-01-01

    hypothesis of the existence of phenomenon change trends, the next step in the methodology of forecasting is the determination of a specific growth curve that describes the regularity of the development in time. These curves of growth are obtained by the analytical representation (expression of dynamic lines. There are two basic stages in the process of expression and they are: - The choice of the type of curve the shape of which corresponds to the character of the dynamic order variation - the determination of the number of values (evaluation of the curve parameters. The most widespread method of forecasting is the trend extrapolation. The basis of the trend extrapolation is the continuing of past trends in the future. The simplicity of the trend extrapolation process, on the one hand, and the absence of other information on the other hand, are the main reasons why the trend extrapolation is used for forecasting. The trend extrapolation is founded on the following assumptions: - The phenomenon development can be presented as an evolutionary trajectory or trend, - General conditions that influenced the trend development in the past will not undergo substantial changes in the future. Spare parts demand forecasting is constantly being done in all warehouses, workshops, and at all levels. Without demand forecasting, neither planning nor decision making can be done. Demand forecasting is the input for determining the level of reserve, size of the order, ordering cycles, etc. The question that arises is the one of the reliability and accuracy of a forecast and its effects. Forecasting 'by feeling' is not to be dismissed if there is nothing better, but in this case, one must be prepared for forecasting failures that cause unnecessary accumulation of certain spare parts, and also a chronic shortage of other spare parts. All this significantly increases costs and does not provide a satisfactory supply of spare parts. The main problem of the application of this model is that each

  4. The forecast of primary energy demand and electricity demand and the participation of coal in covering this demand; Prognoza zapotrzebowania na energie pierwotna i elektryczna oraz udziat wegla w pokryciu tego zapotrzebowania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solinski, J.

    2004-07-01

    The paper presents a preliminary forecast of Poland's future coal demand until 2030, particularly the demand for electric power. Two scenarios are examined - one of average GDP growth rate of 3.5% and a second of 4.5%. Implementation of the first scenario would enable Poland to achieve in 2030 today's levels of per capita electricity consumption in main EU countries, with a forecast consumption level of 280 TWh. By 2030, coal's share in electricity production would fall to about 7%, the remainder being from gas, nuclear and renewable sources. 11 refs., 5 tabs.

  5. Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1. Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hand, M. M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baldwin, S. [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); DeMeo, E. [Renewable Energy Consulting, Chicago, IL (United States); Reilly, J. M. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Mai, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Arent, D. [Joint Inst. for Strategic Energy Analysis, Boulder, CO (United States); Porro, G. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Meshek, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sandor, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2012-06-15

    The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

  6. Future nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosbah, D.S.; Nasreddine, M.

    2006-01-01

    The book includes an introduction then it speaks about the options to secure sources of energy, nuclear power option, nuclear plants to generate energy including light-water reactors (LWR), heavy-water reactors (HWR), advanced gas-cooled reactors (AGR), fast breeder reactors (FBR), development in the manufacture of reactors, fuel, uranium in the world, current status of nuclear power generation, economics of nuclear power, nuclear power and the environment and nuclear power in the Arab world. A conclusion at the end of the book suggests the increasing demand for energy in the industrialized countries and in a number of countries that enjoy special and economic growth such as China and India pushes the world to search for different energy sources to insure the urgent need for current and anticipated demand in the near and long-term future in light of pessimistic and optimistic outlook for energy in the future. This means that states do a scientific and objective analysis of the currently available data for the springboard to future plans to secure the energy required to support economy and welfare insurance.

  7. Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Executive Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, T.; Sandor, D.; Wiser, R.; Schneider, T.

    2012-12-01

    The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

  8. Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Zhao; Østergaard, Jacob; Togeby, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    Relying on generation side alone is deemed insufficient to fulfill the system balancing needs for future Danish power system, where a 50% wind penetration is outlined by the government for year 2025. This paper investigates using the electricity demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) as a new...... balancing measure, which has a high potential and can provide many advantages. Firstly, the background of the research is reviewed, including conventional power system reserves and the electricity demand side potentials. Subsequently, the control logics and corresponding design considerations for the DFR...

  9. Climate-growth analysis for a Mexican dry forest tree shows strong impact of sea surface temperatures and predicts future growth declines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brienen, R.J.W.; Lebrija Trejos, E.E.; Zuidema, P.A.; Martínez- Ramos, M.

    2010-01-01

    Tropical forests will experience relatively large changes in temperature and rainfall towards the end of this century. Little is known about how tropical trees will respond to these changes. We used tree rings to establish climate-growth relations of a pioneer tree, Mimosa acantholoba, occurring in

  10. Why Electricity Demand Is Highly Income-Elastic in Spain: A Cross-Country Comparison Based on an Index-Decomposition Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julián Pérez-García

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Since 1990, Spain has had one of the highest elasticities of electricity demand in the European Union. We provide an in-depth analysis into the causes of this high elasticity, and we examine how these same causes influence electricity demand in other European countries. To this end, we present an index-decomposition analysis of growth in electricity demand which allows us to identify three key factors in the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP and electricity demand: (i structural change; (ii GDP growth; and (iii intensity of electricity use. Our findings show that the main differences in electricity demand elasticities across countries and time are accounted for by the fast convergence in residential per capita electricity consumption. This convergence has almost concluded, and we expect the Spanish energy demand elasticity to converge to European standards in the near future.

  11. The Demand for Calories in Developing Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Odin K. Knudsen; Pasquale L. Scandizzo

    1982-01-01

    This paper employs characteristic demand theory to estimate demand functions for calories for a set of developing countries and to investigate the potential impact of income growth, redistribution, and price changes on alleviating underconsumption of calories. The analysis finds that, although calorie elasticities with respect to income are substantial for the poorer consumers, income growth above historical rates is required for the food needs of the entire population to be satisfied within ...

  12. Long-term water demand for electricity, industry and households

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijl, David L.; Bogaart, Patrick W.; Kram, Tom; de Vries, Bert J M; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Better water demand projections are needed in order to better assess water scarcity. The focus in this paper is on non-agricultural water demand, as this is the fastest-growing and least well-modelled demand component. We describe an end use-oriented model for future water demand in the electricity,

  13. Energy supply and demand result in fiscal 1995 and a short-term prospect. Report submitted by the energy supply and demand trend investigation committee; 1995 nendo energy jukyu jisseki to tanki tenbo. Energy jukyu doko chosa iinkai hokoku

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-10-01

    This paper describes the energy demand and supply result in fiscal 1995 and a short-term prospect. The business condition in Japan is regaining some brightness. While the net GDP growth has stayed at 0.9%, the domestic primary energy supply has increased by 2.9% and the final energy consumption by 3.2% over the previous year, respectively. The energy consumption has increased by 3.7% with the background of increase in production levels in the industrial department in material industries induced by external demand. The consumer department showed as high growth as 5.1% centering on household room heating due to cold winter. The business and transportation departments presented an increase of 2.2% and 2.4%, respectively. Sharp growth of 3.0% was shown in the net GDP during January through March, 1996, having the net GDP growth rate for fiscal 1995 escaped from zero growth that has lasted three years. The recovery of the domestic business condition is moving gradually centering on the consumer demand, wherein the point to be focused from now on is how much the recovery can compensate for decline in the public demand and reduction in the external demand. Attention is given on path of the business condition recovery and future trends in energy demand under the situation of risen consumption tax and deregulated oil business. 42 figs., 73 tabs.

  14. Demand side management. Benefits and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strbac, Goran

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, the major benefits and challenges of electricity demand side management (DSM) are discussed in the context of the UK electricity system. The relatively low utilisation of generation and networks (of about 50%) means that there is significant scope for DSM to contribute to increasing the efficiency of the system investment. The importance of the diversity of electricity load is discussed and the negative effects of DSM on load diversity illustrated. Ageing assets, the growth in renewable and other low-carbon generation technologies and advances in information and communication technologies are identified as major additional drivers that could lead to wider applications of DSM in the medium term. Potential benefits of DSM are discussed in the context of generation and of transmission and distribution networks. The provision of back-up capacity by generation may not be efficient as it will be needed relatively infrequently, and DSM may be better placed to support security. We also present an analysis of the value of DSM in balancing generation and demand in a future UK electricity system with significant variable renewable generation. We give a number of reasons for the relatively slow uptake of DSM, particularly in the residential, commercial and small business sectors. They include a lack of metering, information and communication infrastructure, lack of understanding of the benefits of DSM, problems with the competitiveness of DSM when compared with traditional approaches, an increase in the complexity of system operation and inappropriate market incentives. (author)

  15. P. Electricity demand, substitution and resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-01-01

    This report discusses the demand for electricity in New Zealand, the accuracy of demand predictions, and whether some other form of energy could be substituted for electricity. It then discusses past and possible future electricity generation in New Zealand by geothermal steam and hydro power and the resources of gas and coal that could be made available for electricity generation

  16. Using imperfect advance demand information in forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, T.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the demand-forecasting problem of a make-to-stock system operating in a business-to-business environment where some customers provide information on their future orders, which are subject to changes in time, hence constituting imperfect advance demand information (ADI).

  17. Fundamental Travel Demand Model Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanssen, Joel

    2010-01-01

    Instances of transportation models are abundant and detailed "how to" instruction is available in the form of transportation software help documentation. The purpose of this paper is to look at the fundamental inputs required to build a transportation model by developing an example passenger travel demand model. The example model reduces the scale to a manageable size for the purpose of illustrating the data collection and analysis required before the first step of the model begins. This aspect of the model development would not reasonably be discussed in software help documentation (it is assumed the model developer comes prepared). Recommendations are derived from the example passenger travel demand model to suggest future work regarding the data collection and analysis required for a freight travel demand model.

  18. The Demand for Oil and Energy in Developing Countries

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wolf, Jr., Charles; Relles, Daniel A; Navarro, Jaime

    1980-01-01

    ...? How will world demand be affected by the economic growth of the NOLDCs? In this report, the authors try to develop some reasonable forecasts of the range of NOLDC energy demands in the next 10 years...

  19. Critical Experience Amidst Bureaucratic Structures: Interdisciplinary Dialogue on Educational Futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Robin; Crawford, Jeffrey

    The public schools of today are pictured as rigid bureaucratic structures, unresponsive to dynamic change, and stultifying to individual initiative and growth. A discussion is presented on the future needs of education that will meet expanding demands for greater freedom for the individual in a democracy to make intelligent decisions. Proposals…

  20. A Future with Hope :China Agriculture Outlook 2007

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    @@ China's macro economy has remained in a good and stable condition overall, experiencing an annual GDP growth of over 10% for several consecutive years. Under this basic condition,the main focus of the Outlook was China's current grain and oil supply, and the demand market with its probable future prices.

  1. Future challanges for the maturing Norwegian salmon aquaculture industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asche, Frank; Guttormsen, Atle G.; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we analyze total factor productivity change in the Norwegian salmon aquaculture sector from 1996 to 2008. During this period, the production has on average been growing with 8% per year. At the same time, the price of salmon has stabilized indicating that an increase in demand...... factor to future production growth in the salmon aquaculture industry....

  2. Past and predicted future effects of housing growth on open space conservation opportunity areas and habitat connectivity around National Wildlife Refuges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Christopher M.; Baumann, Matthias; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Helmers, David P.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Radeloff, Volker C.

    2016-01-01

    ContextHousing growth can alter suitability of matrix habitats around protected areas, strongly affecting movements of organisms and, consequently, threatening connectivity of protected area networks.ObjectivesOur goal was to quantify distribution and growth of housing around the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System. This is important information for conservation planning, particularly given promotion of habitat connectivity as a climate change adaptation measure.MethodsWe quantified housing growth from 1940 to 2000 and projected future growth to 2030 within three distances from refuges, identifying very low housing density open space, “opportunity areas” (contiguous areas with habitat corridors within these opportunity areas in 2000.ResultsOur results indicated that the number and area of open space opportunity areas generally decreased with increasing distance from refuges and with the passage of time. Furthermore, total area in habitat corridors was much lower than in opportunity areas. In addition, the number of corridors sometimes exceeded number of opportunity areas as a result of habitat fragmentation, indicating corridors are likely vulnerable to land use change. Finally, regional differences were strong and indicated some refuges may have experienced so much housing growth already that they are effectively too isolated to adapt to climate change, while others may require extensive habitat restoration work.ConclusionsWildlife refuges are increasingly isolated by residential housing development, potentially constraining the movement of wildlife and, therefore, their ability to adapt to a changing climate.

  3. On-Demand Telemetry

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — AFRC has previously investigated the use of Network Based Telemetry. We will be building on that research to enable On-Demand Telemetry. On-Demand Telemetry is a way...

  4. Money Demand in Latvia

    OpenAIRE

    Ivars Tillers

    2004-01-01

    The econometric analysis of the demand for broad money in Latvia suggests a stable relationship of money demand. The analysis of parameter exogeneity indicates that the equilibrium adjustment is driven solely by the changes in the amount of money. The demand for money in Latvia is characterised by relatively high income elasticity typical for the economy in a monetary expansion phase. Due to stability, close fit of the money demand function and rapid equilibrium adjustment, broad money aggreg...

  5. The Future of Tourism: Can Tourism Growth and Climate Policy be Reconciled? A Climate Change Mitigation Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gössling, S.; Hall, C.M.; Peeters, P.M.; Scott, D.

    2010-01-01

    Tourism is an increasingly significant contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Emissions growth in the sector is in substantial conflict with global climate policy goals that seek to mitigate climate change through deep emission reductions. This article discusses the role of various tourism

  6. The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

  7. Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, T.; Wiser, R.; Sandor, D.; Brinkman, G.; Heath, G.; Denholm, P.; Hostick, D.J.; Darghouth, N.; Schlosser, A.; Strzepek, K.

    2012-06-01

    The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

  8. Forecasting fluid milk and cheese demands for the next decade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmit, T M; Kaiser, H M

    2006-12-01

    Predictions of future market demands and farm prices for dairy products are important determinants in developing marketing strategies and farm-production planning decisions. The objective of this report was to use current aggregate forecast data, combined with existing econometric models of demand and supply, to forecast retail demands for fluid milk and cheese and the supply and price of farm milk over the next decade. In doing so, we can investigate whether projections of population and consumer food-spending patterns will extend or alter current consumption trends and examine the implications of future generic advertising strategies for dairy products. To conduct the forecast simulations and appropriately allocate the farm milk supply to various uses, we used a partial equilibrium model of the US domestic dairy sector that segmented the industry into retail, wholesale, and farm markets. Model simulation results indicated that declines in retail per capita demand would persist but at a reduced rate from years past and that retail per capita demand for cheese would continue to grow and strengthen over the next decade. These predictions rely on expected changes in the size of populations of various ages, races, and ethnicities and on existing patterns of spending on food at home and away from home. The combined effect of these forecasted changes in demand levels was reflected in annualized growth in the total farm-milk supply that was similar to growth realized during the past few years. Although we expect nominal farm milk prices to increase over the next decade, we expect real prices (relative to assumed growth in feed costs) to remain relatively stable and show no increase until the end of the forecast period. Supplemental industry model simulations also suggested that net losses in producer revenues would result if only nominal levels of generic advertising spending were maintained in forthcoming years. In fact, if real generic advertising expenditures are

  9. The maximum contraceptive prevalence 'demand curve': guiding discussions on programmatic investments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberger, Michelle; Sonneveldt, Emily; Stover, John

    2017-12-22

    Most frameworks for family planning include both access and demand interventions. Understanding how these two are linked and when each should be prioritized is difficult. The maximum contraceptive prevalence 'demand curve' was created based on a relationship between the modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR) and mean ideal number of children to allow for a quantitative assessment of the balance between access and demand interventions. The curve represents the maximum mCPR that is likely to be seen given fertility intentions and related norms and constructs that influence contraceptive use. The gap between a country's mCPR and this maximum is referred to as the 'potential use gap.' This concept can be used by countries to prioritize access investments where the gap is large, and discuss implications for future contraceptive use where the gap is small. It is also used within the FP Goals model to ensure mCPR growth from access interventions does not exceed available demand.

  10. Is the available cropland and water enough for food demand? A global perspective of the Land-Water-Food nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibarrola-Rivas, M. J.; Granados-Ramírez, R.; Nonhebel, S.

    2017-12-01

    Land and water are essential local resources for food production but are limited. The main drivers of increasing food demand are population growth and dietary changes, which depend on the socioeconomic situation of the population. These two factors affect the availability of local resources: population growth reduces the land and water per person; and adoption of affluent diets increases the demand for land and water per person. This study shows potentials of global food supply by linking food demand drivers with national land and water availability. Whether the available land and water is enough to meet national food demand was calculated for 187 countries. The calculations were performed for the past situation (1960 and 2010) and to assess four future scenarios (2050) to discuss different paths of diets, population numbers and agricultural expansion. Inclusion of the demand perspective in the analysis has shown stronger challenges for future global food supply than have other studies. The results show that with the "business as usual" scenario, 40% of the global population in 2050 will live in countries with not enough land nor water to meet the demands of their population. Restriction to basic diets will be the most effective in lowering both land and water constraints. Our results identify both food production and food demand factors, and the regions that may experience the strongest challenges in 2050.

  11. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  12. Option value of electricity demand response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sezgen, Osman; Goldman, C.A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley CA 94720 (United States); Krishnarao, P. [Citigroup Energy Inc., 1301 Fannin St, Houston, TX 77002 (United States)

    2007-02-15

    As electricity markets deregulate and energy tariffs increasingly expose customers to commodity price volatility, it is difficult for energy consumers to assess the economic value of investments in technologies that manage electricity demand in response to changing energy prices. The key uncertainties in evaluating the economics of demand-response technologies are the level and volatility of future wholesale energy prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that financial engineering methodologies originally developed for pricing equity and commodity derivatives (e.g., futures, swaps, options) can be used to estimate the value of demand-response technologies. We adapt models used to value energy options and assets to value three common demand-response strategies: load curtailment, load shifting or displacement, and short-term fuel substitution-specifically, distributed generation. These option models represent an improvement to traditional discounted cash flow methods for assessing the relative merits of demand-side technology investments in restructured electricity markets. (author)

  13. Option value of electricity demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sezgen, Osman; Goldman, C.A.; Krishnarao, P.

    2007-01-01

    As electricity markets deregulate and energy tariffs increasingly expose customers to commodity price volatility, it is difficult for energy consumers to assess the economic value of investments in technologies that manage electricity demand in response to changing energy prices. The key uncertainties in evaluating the economics of demand-response technologies are the level and volatility of future wholesale energy prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that financial engineering methodologies originally developed for pricing equity and commodity derivatives (e.g., futures, swaps, options) can be used to estimate the value of demand-response technologies. We adapt models used to value energy options and assets to value three common demand-response strategies: load curtailment, load shifting or displacement, and short-term fuel substitution-specifically, distributed generation. These option models represent an improvement to traditional discounted cash flow methods for assessing the relative merits of demand-side technology investments in restructured electricity markets. (author)

  14. Evaluating rare earth element availability: a case with revolutionary demand from clean technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Elisa; Sherman, Andrew M; Wallington, Timothy J; Everson, Mark P; Field, Frank R; Roth, Richard; Kirchain, Randolph E

    2012-03-20

    The future availability of rare earth elements (REEs) is of concern due to monopolistic supply conditions, environmentally unsustainable mining practices, and rapid demand growth. We present an evaluation of potential future demand scenarios for REEs with a focus on the issue of comining. Many assumptions were made to simplify the analysis, but the scenarios identify some key variables that could affect future rare earth markets and market behavior. Increased use of wind energy and electric vehicles are key elements of a more sustainable future. However, since present technologies for electric vehicles and wind turbines rely heavily on dysprosium (Dy) and neodymium (Nd), in rare-earth magnets, future adoption of these technologies may result in large and disproportionate increases in the demand for these two elements. For this study, upper and lower bound usage projections for REE in these applications were developed to evaluate the state of future REE supply availability. In the absence of efficient reuse and recycling or the development of technologies which use lower amounts of Dy and Nd, following a path consistent with stabilization of atmospheric CO(2) at 450 ppm may lead to an increase of more than 700% and 2600% for Nd and Dy, respectively, over the next 25 years if the present REE needs in automotive and wind applications are representative of future needs.

  15. Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inglesi, Roula [Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, University of Pretoria, Main Campus, Pretoria 0002 (South Africa)

    2010-01-15

    In 2008, South Africa experienced a severe electricity crisis. Domestic and industrial electricity users had to suffer from black outs all over the country. It is argued that partially the reason was the lack of research on energy, locally. However, Eskom argues that the lack of capacity can only be solved by building new power plants. The objective of this study is to specify the variables that explain the electricity demand in South Africa and to forecast electricity demand by creating a model using the Engle-Granger methodology for co-integration and Error Correction models. By producing reliable results, this study will make a significant contribution that will improve the status quo of energy research in South Africa. The findings indicate that there is a long run relationship between electricity consumption and price as well as economic growth/income. The last few years in South Africa, price elasticity was rarely taken into account because of the low and decreasing prices in the past. The short-run dynamics of the system are affected by population growth, too After the energy crisis, Eskom, the national electricity supplier, is in search for substantial funding in order to build new power plants that will help with the envisaged lack of capacity that the company experienced. By using two scenarios for the future of growth, this study shows that the electricity demand will drop substantially due to the price policies agreed - until now - by Eskom and the National Energy Regulator South Africa (NERSA) that will affect the demand for some years. (author)

  16. Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inglesi, Roula

    2010-01-01

    In 2008, South Africa experienced a severe electricity crisis. Domestic and industrial electricity users had to suffer from black outs all over the country. It is argued that partially the reason was the lack of research on energy, locally. However, Eskom argues that the lack of capacity can only be solved by building new power plants. The objective of this study is to specify the variables that explain the electricity demand in South Africa and to forecast electricity demand by creating a model using the Engle-Granger methodology for co-integration and Error Correction models. By producing reliable results, this study will make a significant contribution that will improve the status quo of energy research in South Africa. The findings indicate that there is a long run relationship between electricity consumption and price as well as economic growth/income. The last few years in South Africa, price elasticity was rarely taken into account because of the low and decreasing prices in the past. The short-run dynamics of the system are affected by population growth, too After the energy crisis, Eskom, the national electricity supplier, is in search for substantial funding in order to build new power plants that will help with the envisaged lack of capacity that the company experienced. By using two scenarios for the future of growth, this study shows that the electricity demand will drop substantially due to the price policies agreed - until now - by Eskom and the National Energy Regulator South Africa (NERSA) that will affect the demand for some years. (author)

  17. Demand as frequency controlled reserve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Z.; Togeby, M.; OEstergaard, J.

    2008-09-15

    Using demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) is an emerging technology which allow demand to participate actively in maintaining the system operation without reducing the energy service delivered to the customer and without need of user interaction. The basic premise is that traditional frequency controlled reserves from power plants and interconnections with neighbouring systems can be costly, slow and not fulfil the need for future power grids with a high share of wind power and fewer central power plants, and an intention to perform flexible operation such as is landing. Electricity demands, on the other hand, have advantages as frequency reserve including fast activation speed, smooth linear activation, low expected costs, and well-dispersed in the distribution grid. The main challenge of DFR is new methods for monitoring the available capacity. This project has investigated the technology of using electricity demands for providing frequency reserve to power systems. Within the project the potential and economy of DFR compatible loads in Denmark has been investigated, control logic has been designed, power system impact has been investigated, potential business models has been evaluated and an implementation strategy has been suggested. The tasks and goals of the project have been successfully accomplished based on which the conclusion and future recommendation are made. This project has developed the DFR technology that enables electricity demands to autonomously disconnect or reconnect to the grid in response to system frequency variations. The developed DFR technology is proved to be a promising technology from several perspectives. Technically, using DFR is feasible to provide reserves and enhance power system frequency control, while fulfilling technical requirements such as linear activation (or reconnection) according to frequency (or time). Environmentally, the DFR technology is pollution free in contrast to traditional reserves from generation

  18. Developing Demand-Response Based Solutions for Hawaii’s 100% Renewable Energy Target

    OpenAIRE

    Kansal, Rachit

    2017-01-01

    The State of Hawaii has set a target to achieve a 100% Renewables by 2045. Due to the State’s high electricity prices and dependence on imported oil, renewables are seen as an environmental and economic solution to the problem. While the state has seen substantial renewables growth in the last few years, a truly transformative system is needed to push for a fully renewable future. This system would be likely to include Demand Response (DR) capability, Distributed Energy Reso...

  19. Future Climate Prediction of Urban Atmosphere in A Tropical Megacity: Utilization of RCP/SSP Scenarios with an Urban Growth Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.

    2016-12-01

    Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than

  20. Modelling global container freight transport demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tavasszy, L.A.; Ivanova, O.; Halim, R.A.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this chapter is to discuss methods and techniques for a quantitative and descriptive analysis of future container transport demand at a global level. Information on future container transport flows is useful for various purposes. It is instrumental for the assessment of returns of

  1. Study on the hydrogen demand in China based on system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Tao; Ji, Jie; Chen, Ming-qi

    2010-01-01

    Reasonable estimation of hydrogen energy and other renewable energy demand of China's medium and long-term energy is of great significance for China's medium and long-term energy plan. Therefore, based on both China's future economic development and relative economic theory and system dynamics theory, this article analyzes qualitatively the internal factors and external factors of hydrogen energy demand system, and makes the state high and low two assumptions about China's medium and long-term hydrogen demand according to the different speed of China's economic development. After the system dynamic model setting up export and operation, the output shows the data changes of the total hydrogen demand and the four kinds of hydrogen demand. According to the analysis of the output, two conclusions are concluded: The secondary industry, not the tertiary industry (mainly the transportation), should be firstly satisfied by the hydrogen R and D and support of Government policy. Change of Chinese hydrogen demand scale, on basis of its economic growth, can not be effective explained through Chinese economic growth rate, and other influencing factor and mechanism should be probed deeply. (author)

  2. Uranium. Resources, production and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    The events characterising the world uranium market in the last several years illustrate the persistent uncertainly faced by uranium producers and consumers worldwide. With world nuclear capacity expanding and uranium production satisfying only about 60 per cent of demand, uranium stockpiles continue to be depleted at a high rate. The uncertainty related to the remaining levels of world uranium stockpiles and to the amount of surplus defence material that will be entering the market makes it difficult to determine when a closer balance between uranium supply and demand will be reached. Information in this report provides insights into changes expected in uranium supply and demand until well into the next century. The 'Red Book', jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is the foremost reference on uranium. This world report is based on official information from 59 countries and includes compilations of statistics on resources, exploration, production and demand as of 1 January 1997. It provides substantial new information from all of the major uranium producing centres in Africa, Australia, Eastern Europe, North America and the New Independent States, including the first-ever official reports on uranium production in Estonia, Mongolia, the Russian Federation and Uzbekistan. It also contains an international expert analysis of industry statistics and worldwide projections of nuclear energy growth, uranium requirements and uranium supply

  3. Perspective on electricity demand beyond 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appert, O.

    2000-01-01

    Electricity demand has been the fastest growing form of energy use in the OECD for several decades. Historically there have been strong links between national income (gross domestic product), prices and electricity use. If the trends of the past continue, the annual growth rate of electricity demand to 2020 could reach 2% in the OECD and over 4% in developing countries. Although electricity demand is expected to continue the trend of strong growth in the OECD and also in other regions of the world over the coming decades, there is some question in developed countries of the extent to which electricity demand will be moderated by '' saturation ''. That is, will demand growth level off as electricity completes its penetration into most potential applications and equipment becomes more energy efficient? Will commitments to reduce emissions of conventional airborne pollutants and carbon dioxide increase the cost of electricity generation and slow electricity's demand growth? Or, working in the opposite direction, will new end-uses continue to drive electricity's increasing share of final energy consumption? Will lower prices due to electricity market reform have an impact? This paper explores these issues and provides insights in the likely trends in these areas. (author)

  4. Systems of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    The world population growth will impact largely on the energy and electric power demand in the future. Facing the decrease of the hydrocarbons reserves, the international community decided to work together to develop a new generation of nuclear systems. In this context, coordinated researches are realized first with a short dated objective on the development of innovations for PWR type reactors and second with a middle dated on the development of new systems in an international framework (essentially Generation IV). Theses research programs are presented below. The first part is devoted to the different generation of reactors (I to IV) and to the third generation; the second part deals with the international framework of the researches, the french strategy and the european dimension. (A.L.B.)

  5. Demand and supply in Russian gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milovidov, K.N.

    1997-01-01

    The big volume of gas supplies for current and future energy and natural gas balances in Russia is important to understand the likely future dynamics of demand for gas. The path of future demand in Russia is uncertain and the range of possible scenarios is wide. For creating the new gas consumption structure, more deep diversification and development of the gas distribution systems, large investments and considerable periods of time are necessary. The factors usually studied in detail in the conditions of market economy can not be used here as a basis for strategic planning due to several reasons. (R.P.)

  6. Keynote address: The future of Asian natural gas--The Petronas perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abidin, T.S.A.Z.

    1991-01-01

    In the last several years, the Asian Pacific Region has been experiencing a high rate of economic growth. The prospects for the future would appear to be no less bullish. There is a heightened demand for energy and a greater sense of urgency to change to a cleaner burning fuel. These and other factors indicate a significant increase in demand for natural gas. Fortunately, Malaysian reserves are adequate to meet this demand. PETRONAS is vigorously pursuing actions that will expand its supply capabilities. This expansion along with long-term agreements on pricing and sales with gas purchasers will assure the future role of Asian natural gas in domestic and export markets

  7. Nuclear sector foresees future role

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    The latest annual symposium of the Uranium Institute (the international association of organizations connected with nuclear energy) covered a broad spectrum of topics. The symposium is reviewed. The position of nuclear power in the USA, Germany, Korea, Hungary and Czechoslovakia was studied. Although future electricity demand was difficult to predict the coupling between economic and electricity consumption growths was expected to continue. In spite of energy conservation and demand-side management, new generations capacity will be needed in the next 20 years. This would include some nuclear generating capacity which would affect the uranium market. The topics covered at the symposium included the greenhouse effect, the uranium market, uranium production, radioactive waste management and public opinion under the influence of changing ethics. (UK)

  8. Innovation and Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Esben Sloth

    2007-01-01

    the demand-side of markets in the simplest possible way. This strategy has allowed a gradual increase in the sophistication of supply-side aspects of economic evolution, but the one-sided focus on supply is facing diminishing returns. Therefore, demand-side aspects of economic evolution have in recent years...... received increased attention. The present paper argues that the new emphasis on demand-side factors is quite crucial for a deepened understanding of economic evolution. The major reasons are the following: First, demand represents the core force of selection that gives direction to the evolutionary process....... Second, firms' innovative activities relate, directly or indirectly, to the structure of expected and actual demand. Third, the demand side represents the most obvious way of turning to the much-needed analysis of macro-evolutionary change of the economic system....

  9. LPG world supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmes, Ch.

    2008-01-01

    Over the course of this decade, the global LPG market has moved from being tight, where supply barely exceeded non-price sensitive demand, to the current market situation where supply growth has outstripped demand growth to such an extent that current fundamentals suggest that considerable length will prevail in the market over the near term. As is the case for many other energy commodity markets, the LPG industry has experienced a considerable transformation over the last five years with many new LPG supply projects coming on-stream and demand growth in many developing markets slowing in response to higher energy prices. The near term challenge for LPG producers will be securing outlets for output as the market becomes increasingly oversupplied. With expanding LPG supply and a worldwide tightness in the naphtha market, it is expected that petrochemical consumers will favor relatively low priced LPG over naphtha and the resulting increase in LPG cracking rates will go some way to reducing the expected supply surplus. However, the timing of several new LPG supply projects and the start-up of LPG-based petrochemical plants in the Middle-East are expected to impact global LPG trade and pricing over the next few years. Thus, at this point in time, the global LPG market has a high degree of uncertainty with questions remaining over the impact of high energy (and LPG) prices on traditional and developing market demand, the timing of new supply projects and the combined effect of these two factors on international LPG prices. World LPG production has been rising in nearly every region of the world over the last few years and totaled about 229 million tons in 2007, which is some 30 million tons per year higher than in 2000. The exception is North America which accounts for the largest share of global LPG supply at about 24% but production there has remained relatively flat in recent years. Strong LPG production growth in the Middle-East which contributed to about 19% of

  10. PERFECT DEMAND ILLUSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Yu. Sulimov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to technique «Perfect demand illusion», which allows to strengthen the competitive advantageof retailers. Also in the paper spells out the golden rules of visual merchandising.The definition of the method «Demand illusion», formulated the conditions of its functioning, and is determined by the mainhypothesis of the existence of this method.Furthermore, given the definition of the «Perfect demand illusion», and describes its additional conditions. Also spells out the advantages of the «Perfect demandillusion», before the «Demand illusion».

  11. Embracing the future: Canada's nuclear renewal and growth. 28th annual conference of the Canadian Nuclear Society and 31st CNS/CNA student conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The 28th Annual Conference of the Canadian Nuclear Society and 31st CNS/CNA Student Conference was held on June 3-6, 2007 in Saint John, New Brunswick. The central objective of this conference was to provide a forum for exchange of views on how this technical enterprise can best serve the needs of humanity, now and in the future. 'Embracing the Future: Canada's Nuclear Renewal and Growth' was the theme for this year's gathering of nuclear industry experts from across Canada and around the world. This theme reflects the global renaissance of interest in nuclear technology, strongly evident here in Canada through plant refurbishments (underway and planned), new-build planning, renewal and expansion of the nuclear workforce, and growth in public support for environmentally sustainable technology. Topics for discussion at this conference include: the nuclear renaissance in Canada and around the world, recent developments at Canadian utilities, status of plant refurbishment and new build plans, and uranium supply issues. For business, energy, and science reporters this conference offers an insight into major nuclear projects and an opportunity to meet leaders in the nuclear sector. Over 100 technical papers were presented, as well as over 20 student papers, in the following sessions: control room operation; safety analyses; environment and waste management; plant life management and refurbishment; reactor physics; advanced reactor design; instrumentation control; general nuclear topics and standards; chemistry and materials; probabilistic safety assessment; and, performance improvement

  12. Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wadud, Zia; Dey, Himadri S.; Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I.

    2011-01-01

    Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: → Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. → Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. → Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. → Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. → Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

  13. Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wadud, Zia, E-mail: ziawadud@yahoo.com [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh); Dey, Himadri S. [University of Notre Dame (United States); Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I. [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh)

    2011-11-15

    Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: > Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. > Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. > Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. > Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. > Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

  14. Demand Side Management: An approach to peak load smoothing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Prachi

    A preliminary national-level analysis was conducted to determine whether Demand Side Management (DSM) programs introduced by electric utilities since 1992 have made any progress towards their stated goal of reducing peak load demand. Estimates implied that DSM has a very small effect on peak load reduction and there is substantial regional and end-user variability. A limited scholarly literature on DSM also provides evidence in support of a positive effect of demand response programs. Yet, none of these studies examine the question of how DSM affects peak load at the micro-level by influencing end-users' response to prices. After nearly three decades of experience with DSM, controversy remains over how effective these programs have been. This dissertation considers regional analyses that explore both demand-side solutions and supply-side interventions. On the demand side, models are estimated to provide in-depth evidence of end-user consumption patterns for each North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region, helping to identify sectors in regions that have made a substantial contribution to peak load reduction. The empirical evidence supports the initial hypothesis that there is substantial regional and end-user variability of reductions in peak demand. These results are quite robust in rapidly-urbanizing regions, where air conditioning and lighting load is substantially higher, and regions where the summer peak is more pronounced than the winter peak. It is also evident from the regional experiences that active government involvement, as shaped by state regulations in the last few years, has been successful in promoting DSM programs, and perhaps for the same reason we witness an uptick in peak load reductions in the years 2008 and 2009. On the supply side, we estimate the effectiveness of DSM programs by analyzing the growth of capacity margin with the introduction of DSM programs. The results indicate that DSM has been successful in offsetting the

  15. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary

  16. Monitoring urban transport air pollution and energy demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shabbir, Rabia; Ahmad, Sheikh Saeed [Department of Environmental Sciences, Fatima Jinnah Women University, Rawalpindi (Pakistan)

    2010-05-15

    A research associated with urban transportation was carried out in Rawalpindi and Islamabad to analyze the status of emission of air pollutants and energy demands. The study included a discussion of past trends and future scenarios in order to reduce the future emissions. A simple model of passenger transport has been developed using computer based software called Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). The LEAP model was used to estimate total energy demand and the vehicular emissions for the base year 2000 and extrapolated till 2030 for the future predictions. Transport database in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, together with fuel consumption values for the vehicle types and emission factors of NO{sub x}, SO{sub 2} and PM{sub 10} corresponding to the actual vehicle types, formed the basis of the transport demand, energy consumption and total emission calculations. Apart from base scenario, the model was run under three alternative scenarios to study the impact of different urban transport policy initiatives that would reduce energy demand and emissions in transport sector of Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The prime objective was to arrive at an optimal transport policy, which limits the future growth of fuel consumption as well as air pollution. (author)

  17. Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Philip K.

    2010-01-01

    The livestock sector globally is highly dynamic. In developing countries, it is evolving in response to rapidly increasing demand for livestock products. In developed countries, demand for livestock products is stagnating, while many production systems are increasing their efficiency and environmental sustainability. Historical changes in the demand for livestock products have been largely driven by human population growth, income growth and urbanization and the production response in different livestock systems has been associated with science and technology as well as increases in animal numbers. In the future, production will increasingly be affected by competition for natural resources, particularly land and water, competition between food and feed and by the need to operate in a carbon-constrained economy. Developments in breeding, nutrition and animal health will continue to contribute to increasing potential production and further efficiency and genetic gains. Livestock production is likely to be increasingly affected by carbon constraints and environmental and animal welfare legislation. Demand for livestock products in the future could be heavily moderated by socio-economic factors such as human health concerns and changing socio-cultural values. There is considerable uncertainty as to how these factors will play out in different regions of the world in the coming decades. PMID:20713389

  18. Uranium supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spriggs, M J

    1976-01-01

    Papers were presented on the pattern of uranium production in South Africa; Australian uranium--will it ever become available; North American uranium resources, policies, prospects, and pricing; economic and political environment of the uranium mining industry; alternative sources of uranium supply; whither North American demand for uranium; and uranium demand and security of supply--a consumer's point of view. (LK)

  19. Update of energy supply and demand 1983-2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    When a return to economic growth and prosperity occurs there is excellent potential for growth in electrical demand. This electrical growth will mainly come about through increases in total energy usage and through the substitution of electricity for oil, coal and, to a lesser extent, natural gas. The successful introduction of electricity use, either directly or indirectly, into the transportation sector would open up a very large market and make a major contribution to Canada's policy of energy self sufficiency. There are also significant growth areas in the residential and industrial sectors. The major challenge in the next decade will be to maintain a viable Canadian nuclear industry, so as to meet the probable upturn in electrical generating capacity required in the 1990's and beyond and to maintain and improve Canada's share of the nuclear export market. In order to achieve this active support should be given: 1) to building CANDU units in stations primarily devoted to exporting their electrical output to the U.S.A. 2) reactor exports. 3) inititatives to promote increased electrical home heating. 4) electricity substitution in the transportation and industrial fields. Canada has ample uranium resources to cover its own needs and potential exports in the foreseeable future. Because of the great development potential in the CANDU uranium/thorium fuel cycle nuclear energy should be considered as virtually a renewable resource with the best prospects for Canada's long-term energy self sufficiency. Increased productivity, through electric-based process inprovements, and the growth of electric-based high technology industries are both vital to Canada's future economic health. Nuclear produced electricity thus has a vital role to play far into the future

  20. Evolving landscape of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive breast cancer treatment and the future of biosimilars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackisch, Christian; Lammers, Philip; Jacobs, Ira

    2017-04-01

    Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive (HER2+) breast cancer comprises approximately 15%-20% of all breast cancers and is associated with a poor prognosis. The introduction of anti-HER2 therapy has significantly improved clinical outcomes for patients with HER2+ breast cancer, and multiple HER2-directed agents (ie, trastuzumab, pertuzumab, lapatinib, and ado-trastuzumab emtansine [T-DM1]) are approved for clinical use in various settings. The treatment landscape for patients with HER2+ breast cancer is continuing to evolve. While novel agents and therapeutic strategies are emerging, biologic therapies, particularly trastuzumab, are likely to remain a mainstay of treatment. However, access issues create barriers to the use of biologics, and there is evidence for underuse of trastuzumab worldwide. A biosimilar is a biologic product that is highly similar to a licensed biologic in terms of product safety and effectiveness. Biosimilars of trastuzumab are in development and may soon become available. The introduction of biosimilars may improve access to anti-HER2 therapies by providing additional treatment options and lower-cost alternatives. Because HER2-targeted drugs may be administered for extended periods of time and in combination with other systemic therapies, biosimilars have the potential to result in significant savings for healthcare systems. Herein we review current and emerging treatment options for, and discuss the possible role of biosimilars in, treating patients with HER2+ breast cancer. Copyright © 2017 Authors, Pfizer Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. Application of Linked Regional Scale Growth, Biogeography, and Economic Models for Southeastern United States Pine Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven G. McNulty; Jennifer A. Moore; Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Robert Abt; Bryan Smith; Ge Sun; Michael Gavazzi; John Bartlett; Brian Murray; Robert A. Mickler; John D. Aber

    2000-01-01

    The southern United States produces over 50% of commercial timber harvests in the US and the demand for southern timber are likely to increase in the future. Global change is altering the physical and chemical environmental which will play a major role in determining future forest stand growth, insect and disease outbreaks, regeneration success, and distribution of...

  2. Application of linked regional scale growth, biogeography, and economic models for southeastern United States pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven G. McNulty; Jennifer A. Moore; Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Robert, et al. Abt

    2000-01-01

    The southern United States produces over 50% of commercial timber harvests in the US and the demand for southern timber are likely to increase in the future. Global change is altering the physical and chemical environmental which will play a major role in determining future forest stand growth, insect and disease outbreaks, regeneration success, and distribution of...

  3. Toward sustainable energy futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasztor, J. (United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi (Kenya))

    1990-01-01

    All energy systems have adverse as well as beneficial impacts on the environment. They vary in quality, quantity, in time and in space. Environmentally sensitive energy management tries to minimize the adverse impacts in an equitable manner between different groups in the most cost-effective ways. Many of the enviornmental impacts of energy continue to be externalized. Consequently, these energy systems which can externalize their impacts more easily are favoured, while others remain relatively expensive. The lack of full integration of environmental factors into energy policy and planning is the overriding problem to be resolved before a transition towards sustainable energy futures can take place. The most pressing problem in the developing countries relates to the unsustainable and inefficient use of biomass resources, while in the industrialized countries, the major energy-environment problems arise out of the continued intensive use of fossil fuel resources. Both of these resource issues have their role to play in climate change. Although there has been considerable improvement in pollution control in a number of situations, most of the adverse impacts will undoubtedly increase in the future. Population growth will lead to increased demand, and there will also be greater use of lower grade fuels. Climate change and the crisis in the biomass resource base in the developing countries are the most critical energy-environment issues to be resolved in the immediate future. In both cases, international cooperation is an essential requirement for successful resolution. 26 refs.

  4. Trends in income and price elasticities of transport demand (1850–2010)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fouquet, Roger

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate trends in income and price elasticities and to offer insights for the future growth in transport use, with particular emphasis on the impact of energy and technological transitions. The results indicate that income and price elasticities of passenger transport demand in the United Kingdom were very large (3.1 and −1.5, respectively) in the mid-nineteenth century, and declined since then. In 2010, long run income and price elasticity of aggregate land transport demand were estimated to be 0.8 and −0.6. These trends suggest that future elasticities related to transport demand in developed economies may decline very gradually and, in developing economies, where elasticities are often larger, they will probably decline more rapidly as the economies develop. Because of the declining trends in elasticities, future energy and technological transitions are not likely to generate the growth rates in energy consumption that occurred following transitions in the nineteenth century. Nevertheless, energy and technological transitions, such as the car and the airplane, appear to have delayed and probably will delay declining trends in income and price elasticity of aggregate transport demand. - Highlights: ► Estimates trends in income and price elasticities of aggregate UK land transport demand (1850–2010). ► Income and price elasticities were very large in late 1800s and declined since then. ► In 2010, they were estimated to be 0.8 and −0.6. ► Future elasticities are likely to decline gradually in developed economies and faster in developing economies. ► Energy transitions may delay the decline in elasticities.

  5. The CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand

    OpenAIRE

    Gotts, Nicholas Mark

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the design, implementation and testing of the CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand, and the first results of its use to produce estimates of future demand under a range of scenarios. CEDSS simulates direct domestic energy demand at within communities of approximately 200 households. The scenarios explored differ in the economic conditions assumed, and policy measures adopted at national level.

  6. Market demands to Danish pork

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bredahl, Lone

    2001-01-01

    position on its markets. It is expected that results of the analysis will be part of superior strategic decisions for the Danish pork sector as regards future Danish pork export markets. The market demands to be identified will therefore be evaluated in relation to resources and competences within the line...... of business. The study takes its starting point in a value chain perspective. The value chain covers the product- and distribution stages a product passes through before reaching the consumers. The value chain perspective presumes that added value is accumulated when a product passes through the stages...

  7. Demand flexibility from residential heat pump

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhattarai, Bishnu Prasad; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna

    2014-01-01

    Demand response (DR) is considered as a potentially effective tool to compensate generation intermittency imposed by renewable sources. Further, DR can instigate to offer optimum asset utilization and to avoid or delay the need for new infrastructure investment. Being a sizable load together...... with high thermal time constant, heat pumps (HP) can offer a great deal of flexibility in the future intelligent grids especially to compensate fluctuating generation. However, the HP flexibility is highly dependent on thermal demand profile, namely hot water and space heating demand. This paper proposes...... price based scheduling followed by a demand dispatch based central control and a local voltage based adaptive control, to realize HP demand flexibility. Two-step control architecture, namely local primary control encompassed by the central coordinative control, is proposed to implement...

  8. Probabilistic Quantification of Potentially Flexible Residential Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kouzelis, Konstantinos; Mendaza, Iker Diaz de Cerio; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2014-01-01

    The balancing of power systems with high penetration of renewable energy is a serious challenge to be faced in the near future. One of the possible solutions, recently capturing a lot of attention, is demand response. Demand response can only be achieved by power consumers holding loads which allow...... them to modify their normal power consumption pattern, namely flexible consumers. However flexibility, despite being constantly mentioned, is usually not properly defined and even rarer quantified. This manuscript introduces a methodology to identify and quantify potentially flexible demand...

  9. Design, Discovery and Growth of Novel Materials For Basic Research: An Urgent U.S. Need Report on the DOE/BES Workshop: “Future Directions of Design, Discovery and Growth of Single Crystals for Basic Research”

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Canfield, Paul [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Ames Lab., Ames, IA (United States)

    2003-10-10

    The design, discovery and growth of novel materials, especially in single crystal form, represents a national core competency that is essential for scientific progress and long-term economic growth. Indeed, many of the major discoveries of condensed matter science during the last fifty years have been made possible by the discovery of new materials. Recently revealed phenomena such as high Tc superconductivity and the quantum Hall effect, for example, represent new states of matter that emerge from the collective behavior of large numbers of electronic, magnetic and lattice degrees of freedom. Such materials challenge our fundamental understanding of matter and provide novel materials functionality. New materials also lie at the core of many new and existing technologies, such as semiconductor electronics, solid state lasers, radiation detectors, compact disk storage, both cellular and optical communications, solar cells, fuel cells and catalysts. Such materials further hold the promise for new technologies ranging from efficient indoor and traffic lighting, to multi-component data storage, integrated bioelectronic sensors, and thermoelectric power generation. Single crystals are often required to achieve a materials’ full functionality as well as to completely elucidate its properties. A Department-of-Energy-sponsored workshop was held on Oct. 10-12, 2003 in Ames, Iowa with the purpose of assessing the state of novel materials and crystal growth in the U.S. Leaders of broad areas of synthesis and condensed matter science reviewed present U.S. strengths, levels of support, and competition from abroad. The principal finding of the workshop is that the current U.S. infrastructure and personnel levels are insufficient to meet the growing demand for high quality, specialized samples, and to maintain international competitiveness in an area vital to the nation’s condensed matter science enterprise. We further risk being unable to fully exploit the nation’s world

  10. Long-term energy demand forecasting for the Sao Paulo state, Brazil, applying the structural decomposition model for three alternative growth sceneries of the state economy; Projecao da demanda setorial de energia do Estado de Sao Paulo no longo prazo, aplicando o modelo de desagregacao estrutural em tres cenarios alternativos de crescimento da economia do estado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laite, Alvaro Afonso Furtado; Bajay, Sergio Valdir; Pereira, Andre Flavio Soares [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica. Dept. de Energia]|[Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Nucleo Interdisciplinar de Planejamento Energetico (NIPE)]. E-mails: afurtado@fem.unicamp.br; bajay@fem.unicamp.br; apereira@fem.unicamp.br

    2006-07-01

    Long-term demand forecasts (up to 2025) are presented in this paper for the main energy forms consumed in the residential, trade and services, rural, transport, and industrial sectors in the State of Sao Paulo. They were obtained with the help of a flexible forecasting model based on the structural decomposition of the demand, for three alternative scenarios concerning the growth of the state economy. These three state-wise scenarios are related to initially nation-wide defined scenarios, through assumptions concerning the evolution on the ratio between the state GDP and the national GDP. (author)

  11. The future of energy use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lameiras, Fernando Soares

    1996-01-01

    Humanity will not face shortage of energy, but may face problems with its use, because every energy source has restrictions. Fossil fuels change the climate,nuclear energy increases the radioactivity and can be used to manufacture weapons, solar energy is very scattered, and geothermal energy is yet not well known. Delicate political issues emerge in this scenario. Due to the magnitude of energy used by many countries, isolated energy policies can disturb all planet. This may delay decisions and result in the lack of energy supply, hindering the development of many regions, or in conflict between countries. In this paper, some analyses and considerations are presented about the future of energy use, including some axiologic features. The role of nuclear energy is analysed, because, maybe, for the first time a energy source was target of axiologic issues that have affected the growth of its demand. These issues are yet to be internalized by other energy sources in the future. (author)

  12. The future gas market in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindberg, P.

    1992-01-01

    The views of a major North Sea gas producer on the future development of the European markets for natural gas will be presented by Statoil. The paper focuses on the anticipated growth of the demand for gas in Europe and discuss the main driving forces, such as environmental concerns, gas demand for power generation, diversity of energy supply and the emerging opportunities in Eastern/Central Europe. Further more the views from a supplier and a gas seller observing the possible, future structural changes of the European gas market now subject to discussion and definition in the European Community will be presented. In conclusion, the consequences for Norway as a gas supplier is discussed

  13. Sizewell: UK power demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1986-01-01

    The Sizewell Inquiry was about whether the next power stations to be built in the UK should be nuclear or coal and, if nuclear, PWRs or AGRs. During the period of the Inquiry forecasts of demand for electricity were low. Now, however, it seems that the forecast demand is much increased. This uncertainty in demand and the wide regional variations are examined in some detail. Facts and figures on electricity sales (area by area) are presented. Also the minutes of supply lost per consumer per year. These show that security of supply is also a problem. It is also shown that the way electricity is used has changed. Whilst electricity generation has been changing to large-scale, centralised power stations the demand patterns may make smaller scale, quickly-constructed units more sensible. The questions considered at the Sizewell Inquiry may, indeed, no longer be the right ones. (UK)

  14. A demanding market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, M.

    1997-01-01

    The article relates to the oil and natural gas market, and it gives a survey of proved reserves at the end of 1996 worldwide. The long term trend of increasing world energy demand has seen a major rise during 1996 when global consumption grew by 3%. But worldwide demand, excluding the Former Soviet Union, shows this figure increasing further to 3.7% for the whole of last year according to statistics. 3 figs

  15. Maximum power demand cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biondi, L.

    1998-01-01

    The charging for a service is a supplier's remuneration for the expenses incurred in providing it. There are currently two charges for electricity: consumption and maximum demand. While no problem arises about the former, the issue is more complicated for the latter and the analysis in this article tends to show that the annual charge for maximum demand arbitrarily discriminates among consumer groups, to the disadvantage of some [it

  16. Energy demand projections based on an uncertain dynamic system modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong, S.

    2000-01-01

    Today, China has become the world's second largest pollution source of CO 2 . Owing to coal-based energy consumption, it is estimated that 85--90% of the SO 2 and CO 2 emission of China results from coal use. With high economic growth and increasing environmental concerns, China's energy consumption in the next few decades has become an issue of active concern. Forecasting of energy demand over long periods, however, is getting more complex and uncertain. It is believed that the economic and energy systems are chaotic and nonlinear. Traditional linear system modeling, used mostly in energy demand forecasts, therefore, is not a useful approach. In view of uncertainty and imperfect information about future economic growth and energy development, an uncertain dynamic system model, which has the ability to incorporate and absorb the nature of an uncertain system with imperfect or incomplete information, is developed. Using the model, the forecasting of energy demand in the next 25 years is provided. The model predicts that China's energy demand in 2020 will be about 2,700--3,000 Mtce, coal demand 3,500 Mt, increasing by 128% and 154%, respectively, compared with that of 1995

  17. Modeling workforce demand in North Dakota: a System Dynamics approach

    OpenAIRE

    Muminova, Adiba

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the dynamics behind the workforce demand and attempts to predict the potential effects of future changes in oil prices on workforce demand in North Dakota. The study attempts to join System Dynamics and Input-Output models in order to overcome shortcomings in both of the approaches and gain a more complete understanding of the issue of workforce demand. A system dynamics simulation of workforce demand within different economic sector...

  18. Assistência pública de saúde no contexto da transição demográfica brasileira: exigências atuais e futuras The public healthcare system in the context of Brazil's demographic transition: current and future demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio da Cruz Gouveia Mendes

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Este estudo avalia a assistência hospitalar e ambulatorial e sua capacidade de responder às novas exigências neste contexto da transição demográfica brasileira. As informações foram obtidas dos estudos do IBGE, e sistemas de informações assistenciais do SUS (CNES, SIH e SIA. A redução das taxas de natalidade, fecundidade, mortalidade infantil e aumento da expectativa de vida ao nascer determinam ainda um crescimento demográfico, com redução da taxa de dependência, o que permite uma oportunidade para promover ajustes necessários. Entre 1999 e 2009, a população cresceu em mais 27,5 milhões de habitantes com redução de 26,7% dos leitos e 947 mil internações com distorções na distribuição por clínicas, mas com aumento da assistência de alta complexidade ambulatorial e hospitalar. Os resultados demonstram que vivemos um momento de transição do modelo assistencial que exige maior capacidade de planejamento do futuro da assistência à saúde, tornando mais complexa a rede assistencial e repensando o modelo de atenção à saúde, preparando-se para o grande crescimento da população idosa nas próximas décadas.This paper assesses inpatient and outpatient care and their capacity to respond to changing demands in the context of the demographic transition in Brazil. The data were obtained from studies by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE and databases in the National Health System (CNES, SIH, and SIA. The reduction in birth, fertility, and infant mortality rates and the increase in life expectancy at birth are still driving population growth, while decreasing the dependency rate, thereby providing the opportunity to make necessary adjustments. The population increased by more than 27.5 million from 1999 to 2009, with a 26.7% reduction in hospital beds and 947,000 hospitalizations, with distortions in the distribution by specialty, but with increases in high-complexity outpatient and inpatient care

  19. Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity. New evidence from Sri Lanka

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Athukorala, P.P.A Wasantha; Wilson, Clevo

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 0.32, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity of 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and (4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages in the country. (author)

  20. The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yophy; Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey; Peng, Chieh-Yu

    2011-01-01

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research highlights: → The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. → Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO 2 emission. → The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. → Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. → Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.