WorldWideScience

Sample records for future demand growth

  1. Future demand scenarios of Bangladesh power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain; Boie, Wulf; Denich, Manfred

    2010-01-01

    Data on the future electricity demand is an essential requirement for planning the expansion of a power system. The purpose of this study is to provide a general overview of electricity consumption in Bangladesh, forecast sector-wise electricity demand up to 2035 considering the base year 2005, and compare the results with official projections. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model with three scenarios, namely low gross domestic product (GDP) growth, average GDP growth and high GDP growth, is applied in this study. In the low to high GDP growth scenarios, the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement is gradually increased. The findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development. The study also compares the projected per capita electricity consumption in Bangladesh with the historical growth in several other developing countries. Such an evaluation can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in Bangladesh to meet the high future demand.

  2. Asian oil refining. Demand growth and deregulation - an uncertain future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sameer Nawaz.

    1996-01-01

    The objective of the report is to identify the most important features of the oil refining industry in Asia. Major developments in consumption patterns changes in regional importance of countries are discussed, highlighting potential future developments. The first chapter introduces the various refining processes and presents a simple model for the analysis of complex refineries. Chapter 2 examines the development of the Asian refining industry against a background of economic growth and analyses trends in consumption of all products in Asian countries. In Chapter 3, the key issues concerning the refining industry are examined, among them the forces driving consumption, including the importance of economic development, and electricity and transport demand. The importance of product imports and international trade is discussed, and the extent of government involvement and the effects of changing retail and market prices are analysed. Chapter 4 looks at the strategies that oil and gas companies are following in the Asian refining industry. Particular significance is attached to the vertical integration of the oil majors, Japanese and Middle Eastern oil companies. A brief overview of the importance of the petrochemical industry is presented. The countries of Asia that are involved in the refining industry are profiled in Chapter 5. The future trend in oil consumption is examined in Chapter 6. There follows a brief discussion of the plans to expand crude refining capacity in the various countries and a forecast of the state of overcapacity which will result. In the final chapter, brief profiles of some of the most important companies in the Asian refining industry are presented, discussing their major activities and future plans. (Author)

  3. Supply-demand controls the futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, D.

    1991-01-01

    This paper briefly discusses the futures market of petroleum and explains how futures operate. The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate that oil futures markets does no determine energy prices - it merely reflects the prices recorded through trades made in an open marketplace. A futures contract is an agreement between a buyer and a seller at a price that seems fair to both. High demand from buyers can push prices up; low demand or a willingness to sell pushes prices down. As a result, supply and demand control the futures exchange and not vice-versa. The paper goes on to explain some basic principals of the futures market including the differences between hedging and speculating on prices and marketing strategy

  4. Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 3: End-Use Electricity Demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hostick, D.; Belzer, D.B.; Hadley, S.W.; Markel, T.; Marnay, C.; Kintner-Meyer, M.

    2012-06-01

    The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

  5. Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 3. End-Use Electricity Demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hostick, Donna [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Belzer, David B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Markel, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kintner-Meyer, Michael [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2012-06-15

    The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

  6. Main tendencies meeting future energy demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flach, G.; Riesner, W.; Ufer, D.

    1989-09-01

    The economic development in the German Democratic Republic within the preceding 10 years has proved that future stable economic growth of about 4 to 4.5% per annum is only achievable by ways including methods of saving resources. This requires due to the close interdependences between the social development and the level of the development in the energy sector long-term growth rates of the national income of 4 to 4.5% per annum at primary energy growth rates of less than 1% per annum. It comprises three main tendencies: 1. Organization of a system with scientific-technical, technological, economic structural-political and educational measures ensuring in the long term less increase of the energy demand while keeping the economic growth at a constant level. 2. The long-term moderate extension and modernization of the GDR's energy basis is characterized by continuing use of the indigenous brown coal resources for the existing power plant capacities and for district heating. 3. The use of modern and safe nuclear power technologies defines a new and in future more and more important element of the energy basis. Currently about 10% of electricity in the GDR are covered by nuclear energy, in 2000 it will be one third, after 2000 the growth process will continue. The experience shows: If conditions of deepened scientific consideration of all technological processes and the use of modern diagnosis and computer technologies as well as permanent improvement of the safety-technological components and equipment are guaranteed an increasing use of such systems for the production of electricity and heat is socially acceptable. Ensuring a high level of education and technical training of everyone employed in the nuclear energy industry, strict safety restrictions and independent governmental control of these restrictions are important preconditions for the further development in this field. 3 refs, 5 tabs

  7. Aggregated Demand Response Modelling for Future Grid Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Verbic, Gregor; Hill, David J.

    2015-01-01

    With the increased penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RESs) in future grids (FGs), balancing between supply and demand will become more dependent on demand response (DR) and energy storage. Thus, FG feasibility studies will need to consider DR for modelling nett future demand. Against this backdrop, this paper proposes a demand model which integrates the aggregated effect of DR in a simplified representation of the effect of market/dispatch processes aiming at minimising th...

  8. Energy demand in Mexico, a vision to the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esquivel E, J.; Xolocostli M, J. V.

    2017-09-01

    The energy planning allows to know the current and future energy needs of the country, with the objective of efficiently guaranteeing the supply of energy demand through the diversity of the sources used, promoting the use of clean energies such as nuclear energy. Mexico, by participating in the ARCAL project -Support for the preparation of national energy plans in order to meet energy needs in the countries of the region, making effective use of resources in the medium and long term- has developed the study of energy demand for the period 2015-2050, where, given the socio-economic and technological conditions of the country in 2012, four scenarios are proposed: Decrement al, with decreases in the GDP growth rate and in the production of the manufacturing sector; Incremental, which shows an increase in the GDP growth rate and in the manufacturing sector; Incremental Dual, scenario similar to the Incremental plus an incentive in the service sector and finally, the Tendencial scenario, which corresponds to a typical scenario-business as usual-. The study that concerns this work was developed with the MAED tool and the results that are presented correspond to the energy requirements in each scenario, for the agriculture, construction, mining, manufacturing and transport sectors. (Author)

  9. Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

    2015-11-12

    Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

  10. Future United States Domestic Water Demand

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population projections, estimated per capita consumption rate, and estimated total annual water demand to 2100 for four future projections based off the IPCC SRES...

  11. Economics of Future Growth in Photovoltaics Manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basore, Paul A.; Chung, Donald; Buonassisi, Tonio

    2015-06-14

    The past decade's record of growth in the photovoltaics manufacturing industry indicates that global investment in manufacturing capacity for photovoltaic modules tends to increase in proportion to the size of the industry. The slope of this proportionality determines how fast the industry will grow in the future. Two key parameters determine this slope. One is the annual global investment in manufacturing capacity normalized to the manufacturing capacity for the previous year (capacity-normalized capital investment rate, CapIR, units $/W). The other is how much capital investment is required for each watt of annual manufacturing capacity, normalized to the service life of the assets (capacity-normalized capital demand rate, CapDR, units $/W). If these two parameters remain unchanged from the values they have held for the past few years, global manufacturing capacity will peak in the next few years and then decline. However, it only takes a small improvement in CapIR to ensure future growth in photovoltaics. Any accompanying improvement in CapDR will accelerate that growth.

  12. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Hutson, N.; Lamm, C. R.; Pei, Y. L.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Winebrake, J. J.

    2013-03-01

    Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analytical models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  13. Fuel supply demand balances for future FBR commercialization: impacts on plutonium pricing and reactor design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, C.; Zebroski, E.L.

    1985-01-01

    Plutonium supply and demand balances for fast breeder reactor (FBR) commercialization post-2000 were computed to determine: (a) the maximum supportable number of FBRs that could be installed based on plutonium availability considerations and (b) the feasibility of a reasonable FBR capacity growth case assuming slow introduction post-2010 and rapid capacity growth post-2035. The purpose of the analysis was to determine the outer limitation on the maximum future FBR introduction, or the bounds of a possible plutonium-limited introduction rate, and to estimate the reasonableness of a more limited capacity growth case

  14. Gas demand growth and trade in South-East Europe: What perspectives for Bulgaria?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brendow, K.

    2002-01-01

    Gas demand and trade are said to grow in South-East Europe, and inter-regional gas transit is believed to gain importance. Despite a 5 to 10 year delay in economics and energy reforms compared to EU accession countries, prospects for economic recovery and a sustained growth of gas demand around 3.9%/year to 2020 in the region and 6.7% in Bulgaria appear real. Growth is contained by investment needs, vested interests in, and competition from, coal and nuclear as well as concerns about future gas prices, and import dependence. The densification of national and regional gas systems will proceed. Inter-regional (North-South and East-West) high-capacity gas pipeline will emerge as a tempting business perspective. While these perspectives are medium- and long-term, competition among pipeline projects is already waging at present. Bulgaria, Romania and Greece position themselves so as to safeguard future transit revenues, the latter country, in cooperation with Turkey, appearing to move fast with the support of the EU. A region wide optimisation of infrastructure projects appears desirable, however national strategic interests may conflict. (author)

  15. Asia-Pacific region's oil demand growth strains refining capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    The rapidly industrializing Asia-Pacific region has become a stand-alone economic force and the world's growth market for oil. Japan remains the region's premier economic powerhouse but no longer its only one. And Asia-Pacific economic fortunes have decoupled from the more-mature economies of Europe and the U.S. The East-West Center, Honolulu, in January projected Asia-Pacific average oil demand growth of 3.6%/year through 1999, nearly double what most economists expect for oil demand growth worldwide. Demand reached 14.5 million b/d in 1992, up 862,000 b/d from 1991. East-West Center analysts project demand of 16.4 million b/d in 1995 and 19.1 million b/d by 2000. Not all analysts expect such rapid growth for the region. Edward N. Krapels, president of Energy Security Analysis Inc., Washington, D.C., told a seminar in Houston during March that demand in Southeast Asia will grow at an average of 500,000 b/d/year. The paper discusses economic strength; regional demand; the pressure on refining; the shortfall seen; an opposing view from the Energy Security Analysis; and construction activity

  16. The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d' Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

  17. Future internet concepts for demand management

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Madhoo, H

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available research and experimental initiative linked to the Future Internet (TRESCIMO) which facilitates the validity of using these technologies as base for energy demand management. The initiative utilises a philosophy of informing customers about their energy...

  18. Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dall, Timothy M; Storm, Michael V; Chakrabarti, Ritashree; Drogan, Oksana; Keran, Christopher M; Donofrio, Peter D; Henderson, Victor W; Kaminski, Henry J; Stevens, James C; Vidic, Thomas R

    2013-07-30

    This study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025. A microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform. The estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. In the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future.

  19. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grenzeback, L. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Brown, A. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Fischer, M. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Hutson, N. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Lamm, C. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Pei, Y. L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vyas, A. D. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Winebrake, J. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2013-03-01

    Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and by extrapolation, to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050, requiring ever-greater amounts of energy. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand; the possible trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand and related energy use. After describing federal policy actions that could influence freight demand, the report then summarizes the available analytical models for forecasting freight demand, and identifies possible areas for future action.

  20. Current status and future projections of LNG demand and supplies: A global prospective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Satish; Kwon, Hyouk-Tae; Choi, Kwang-Ho; Hyun Cho, Jae; Lim, Wonsub; Moon, Il

    2011-01-01

    An unceasing growth of gas consumption in domestic households, industry, and power plants has gradually turned natural gas into a major source of energy. Main drivers in this development are the technical and economic advantages of natural gas. It is a clean, versatile, and easily controllable fuel. On this basis, natural gas is often considered the form of energy that will be the 'bridging fuel' to a sustainable energy system, sometime after 2050. Unlike other main sources of energy, such as oil and coal, gas is not traded on an actual world market. This paper provides an overview on demand and supplies of natural gas (LNG) in the past as a function of gas prices, gas technology (gas sweetening, liquefaction, shipping and re-gasification), and gas market and how they have changed recently. It also discusses the likely developments in global LNG demand for the period to the year 2030. - Highlights: → This study provides an overview on demand and supplies of LNG in the past and future. → Outlook for LNG demand in Asia pacific region is very robust. → In past decade the shale gas production in USA has increased fivefold. → The future of European gas supply depends largely on the geopolitical environments. → Within the gas sector LNG is playing an ever increasing role in gas transportation.

  1. Understanding China’s past and future energy demand: An exergy efficiency and decomposition analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brockway, Paul E.; Steinberger, Julia K.; Barrett, John R.; Foxon, Timothy J.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We complete the first time series exergy and useful work study of China (1971–2010). • Novel exergy approach to understand China’s past and future energy consumption. • China’s exergy efficiency rose from 5% to 13%, and is now above US (11%). • Decomposition finds this is due to structural change not technical leapfrogging. • Results suggests current models may underestimate China’s future energy demand. - Abstract: There are very few useful work and exergy analysis studies for China, and fewer still that consider how the results inform drivers of past and future energy consumption. This is surprising: China is the world’s largest energy consumer, whilst exergy analysis provides a robust thermodynamic framework for analysing the technical efficiency of energy use. In response, we develop three novel sub-analyses. First we perform a long-term whole economy time-series exergy analysis for China (1971–2010). We find a 10-fold growth in China’s useful work since 1971, which is supplied by a 4-fold increase in primary energy coupled to a 2.5-fold gain in aggregate exergy conversion efficiency to useful work: from 5% to 12.5%. Second, using index decomposition we expose the key driver of efficiency growth as not ‘technological leapfrogging’ but structural change: i.e. increasing reliance on thermodynamically efficient (but very energy intensive) heavy industrial activities. Third, we extend our useful work analysis to estimate China’s future primary energy demand, and find values for 2030 that are significantly above mainstream projections

  2. Future Parking Demand at Rail Stations in Klang Valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho Phooi Wai

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Klang Valley, Malaysia is currently undergoing a massive development of rail transportation system expansion where the current integrated rail transit system will see new extensions of two MRT lines and an LRT line by year 2020. By year 2017, the first MRT line will be ready to run with 31 new rail stations connected to the current passenger rail network. The existing Park and Ride facilities in Klang Valley are commonly known as being unable to sufficiently cater for the current parking space demand. Therefore, with the expansion of many additional rail stations which are rapidly under construction, there are doubts that the future parking space at rail stations will be able to accommodate the sudden rise of rail passengers. Although the authorities are increasing parking bays at various locations, will the future parking demand at rail stations be sufficient? This paper studies the factors influencing parking demand in terms of population, car ownership, new car registrations and passenger rail ridership and estimating the future parking demand using Linear Regression method. Result shows that the forecasted parking demand at rail stations after the implementation of the first new MRT system in 2017 is 2.7 times more than in 2014.

  3. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ou Xunmin; Zhang Xiliang; Chang Shiyan

    2010-01-01

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

  4. Future changes driving dietetics workforce supply and demand: future scan 2012-2022.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhea, Marsha; Bettles, Craig

    2012-03-01

    The dietetics profession faces many workforce challenges and opportunities to ensure that registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs) are at the forefront of health and nutrition. The profession must prepare for new public priorities, changes in population, and the restructuring of how people learn and work, as well as new advances in science and technology. In September 2010, the Dietetics Workforce Demand Task Force, in consultation with a panel of thought leaders, identified 10 change drivers that affect dietetics workforce supply and demand. This future scan report provides an overview of eight of these drivers. Two change drivers-health care reform and population risk factors/nutrition initiatives-are addressed in separate technical articles. A change matrix has been included at the end of this executive summary. The matrix contains a summary of each change driver and its expected impact and is designed to present the drivers in the context of a larger, dynamic system of change in the dietetics profession. The impact of any of these change drivers individually and collectively in a dynamic system is uncertain. The outcome of any change driver is also uncertain. The dietetics profession faces many choices within each change driver to meet the workforce challenges and seize the opportunities for leadership and growth. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Can Bangladesh produce enough cereals to meet future demand?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timsina, J; Wolf, J; Guilpart, N; van Bussel, L G J; Grassini, P; van Wart, J; Hossain, A; Rashid, H; Islam, S; van Ittersum, M K

    2018-06-01

    Bangladesh faces huge challenges in achieving food security due to its high population, diet changes, and limited room for expanding cropland and cropping intensity. The objective of this study is to assess the degree to which Bangladesh can be self-sufficient in terms of domestic maize, rice and wheat production by the years 2030 and 2050 by closing the existing gap (Yg) between yield potential (Yp) and actual farm yield (Ya), accounting for possible changes in cropland area. Yield potential and yield gaps were calculated for the three crops using well-validated crop models and site-specific weather, management and soil data, and upscaled to the whole country. We assessed potential grain production in the years 2030 and 2050 for six land use change scenarios (general decrease in arable land; declining ground water tables in the north; cropping of fallow areas in the south; effect of sea level rise; increased cropping intensity; and larger share of cash crops) and three levels of Yg closure (1: no yield increase; 2: Yg closure at a level equivalent to 50% (50% Yg closure); 3: Yg closure to a level of 85% of Yp (irrigated crops) and 80% of water-limited yield potential or Yw (rainfed crops) (full Yg closure)). In addition, changes in demand with low and high population growth rates, and substitution of rice by maize in future diets were also examined. Total aggregated demand of the three cereals (in milled rice equivalents) in 2030 and 2050, based on the UN median population variant, is projected to be 21 and 24% higher than in 2010. Current Yg represent 50% (irrigated rice), 48-63% (rainfed rice), 49% (irrigated wheat), 40% (rainfed wheat), 46% (irrigated maize), and 44% (rainfed maize) of their Yp or Yw. With 50% Yg closure and for various land use changes, self-sufficiency ratio will be > 1 for rice in 2030 and about one in 2050 but well below one for maize and wheat in both 2030 and 2050. With full Yg closure, self-sufficiency ratios will be well above one for

  6. The Impact of Economic Parameter Uncertainty Growth on Regional Energy Demand Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Vasilyevna Mazurova

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the forecasting studies based on the energy demand and prices in the region in terms of the complex interconnections between economy (and energy and the growth of uncertainty of the future development of the country and territories. The authors propose a methodological approach, which combines the assessment of the price elasticity of energy demand with the optimization of energy and fuel regional supply. In this case, the price elasticity of demand is determined taking into account the comparison of cost-effectiveness of using different types of fuel and energy by different consumers. The originality of the proposed approach consists in simulating the behaviour of suppliers’ (energy companies and large customers’ (power plants, boiler rooms, industry, transport, population depending on energy price changes, the existing and new technologies, energy-saving activities and restrictions on fuel supplies. To take into account the uncertainty of future economic and energy conditions, some parameters such as prospective technical and economic parameters, price, technological parameters are set as the intervals of possible values with different probability levels. This approach allows making multivariate studies with different combinations of the expected conditions and receiving as a result the range of the projected values of studied indicators. The multivariate calculations show that the fuel demand has a nonlinear dependence on the consumer characteristics, pricing, projection horizon, and the nature of the future conditions uncertainty. The authors have shown that this effect can be significant and should be considered in the forecasts of the development of fuel and energy sector. The methodological approach and quantitative evaluation can be used to improve the economic and energy development strategies of the country and regions

  7. Pulpwood supply and demand : development in the South, little growth elsewhere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Irene. Durbak

    2002-01-01

    This long-range outlook derives from analysis of pulp and paper markets and pulpwood demands for wood panels. The analysis projects modest increases in pulpwood demand beyond 2010, with decelerating growth in paper and paperboard consumption; increased demand for pulpwood in wood panels; increased imports of pulp, paper, and paperboard; and little additional growth in...

  8. Future land-use related water demand in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

    2016-01-01

    Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed (municipal and industrial) and agricultural land use to estimate associated water use demand from 2012 to 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total water use was projected to increase 1.8 billion cubic meters(+4.1%) driven primarily by urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Only if currently mandated 25% reductions in municipal water use are continuously implemented would water demand in 2062 balance to water use levels in 2012. This is the first modeling effort of its kind to examine regional land-use related water demand incorporating historical trends of both developed and agricultural land uses.

  9. Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2012-01-01

    Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

  10. Confronting New Demands : Inclusive Growth, Inclusive Trade ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Confronting New Demands : Inclusive Growth, Inclusive Trade. Policymakers, businesspeople and civil society advocates need evidence-based research to react ... understood implications, such as labour standards and intellectual property; ...

  11. Future demand of petroleum products in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Sajal

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the long-run equilibrium relationship between total petroleum products consumption and economic growth in India for the period 1970-1971 to 2001-2002 using cointegration and error-correction modeling approach. Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests reveal that both the series, after logarithmic transformation, are non-stationary and individually integrated of order one. The empirical results suggest that the series are cointegrated. The 'long-term demand elasticity for petroleum products' has been estimated. Furthermore, as a special case, similar sort of exercise between the consumption of middle-distillates and economic growth in India using annual data for the time span 1974-1975 to 2001-2002 has been carried out, which also confirms the existence of cointegration. In-sample forecasts fitted well against actual numbers. Finally, the paper forecasts total petroleum products and middle-distillates demands till 2011-2012 and provide an idea about the investment required in refinery sector in India till 2011-2012

  12. An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jianliang; Feng, Lianyong; Tverberg, Gail E.

    2013-01-01

    Many people believe that China's economic growth can continue almost indefinitely. For a manufacturing-based economy such as China's to continue to grow, it needs an adequate supply of inexpensive energy. To date, this energy growth has primarily come from coal, but China's indigenous coal supplies are now falling short of the amount needed to support this growth. In this situation, the status of China's future coal supply will be very important for China's future economic development. Our analysis shows that China's ultimate recoverable coal reserves equal 223.6×10 9 MT, and its production will peak between 2025 and 2030, with peak production of approximately 3.9×10 9 MT. The extent to which China can import coal in the future is uncertain. With rising coal demand, this combination is likely to create a significant challenge to China's future economic development. - Highlights: ► We analyze an issue of prime importance for the future of China's economy. ► The decline in coal supply will present a challenge to China's economic growth. ► Rising coal price will also have an adverse impact on economic growth

  13. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popescu, I.; Brandimarte, L.; Perera, M. S. U.; Peviani, M.

    2012-08-01

    La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB), and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040). Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years), whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970-2000) and topographical characteristics of the area. Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy). The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  14. Identifying water price and population criteria for meeting future urban water demand targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashoori, Negin; Dzombak, David A.; Small, Mitchell J.

    2017-12-01

    Predictive models for urban water demand can help identify the set of factors that must be satisfied in order to meet future targets for water demand. Some of the explanatory variables used in such models, such as service area population and changing temperature and rainfall rates, are outside the immediate control of water planners and managers. Others, such as water pricing and the intensity of voluntary water conservation efforts, are subject to decisions and programs implemented by the water utility. In order to understand this relationship, a multiple regression model fit to 44 years of monthly demand data (1970-2014) for Los Angeles, California was applied to predict possible future demand through 2050 under alternative scenarios for the explanatory variables: population, price, voluntary conservation efforts, and temperature and precipitation outcomes predicted by four global climate models with two CO2 emission scenarios. Future residential water demand in Los Angeles is projected to be largely driven by price and population rather than climate change and conservation. A median projection for the year 2050 indicates that residential water demand in Los Angeles will increase by approximately 36 percent, to a level of 620 million m3 per year. The Monte Carlo simulations of the fitted model for water demand were then used to find the set of conditions in the future for which water demand is predicted to be above or below the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power 2035 goal to reduce residential water demand by 25%. Results indicate that increases in price can not ensure that the 2035 water demand target can be met when population increases. Los Angeles must rely on furthering their conservation initiatives and increasing their use of stormwater capture, recycled water, and expanding their groundwater storage. The forecasting approach developed in this study can be utilized by other cities to understand the future of water demand in water-stressed areas

  15. Surging electricity demand growth bolsters outlook for natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koen, A.D.

    1994-01-01

    Economic expansion and regulatory reform are combining to boost global opportunities for burning gas to generate electric power. Companies producing, marketing, or transporting gas are capitalizing on the improved outlook by seizing on synergistic roles in the power generation chain. Much of the improved outlook for gas stems from projected hearty increases in global demand for electricity. Bechtel Power Corp., estimates global power generation capacity during 1994--2003 will increase to as much as 1.2 billion kw, about 25% of which could be added by independent power production (IPPs). Since about 200 bcf of gas reserves producing about 20 MMcfd of gas is needed to fuel of a 100,000 kw electric generating station for 25 years, that adds up to a major growth opportunity for gas producers. The paper discusses the assessment of gas reserves, US power growth, the intent of the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (Epact), effects of Epact, gas industry response, power marketing units, synergistic possibilities, effects on US utilities, international power imperatives, non-US projects, funding good projects, and forecasting future developments

  16. Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

    2011-01-01

    Targeted measures influencing vehicle technology are increasingly a tool of energy policy makers within the EU as a means of meeting energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change and energy security goals. This paper develops the modelling capacity for analysing and evaluating such legislation, with a focus on private car energy demand. We populate a baseline car stock and car activity model for Ireland to 2025 using historical car stock data. The model takes account of the lifetime survival profile of different car types, the trends in vehicle activity over the fleet and the fuel price and income elasticities of new car sales and total fleet activity. The impacts of many policy alternatives may only be simulated by such a bottom-up approach, which can aid policy development and evaluation. The level of detail achieved provides specific insights into the technological drivers of energy consumption, thus aiding planning for meeting climate targets. This paper focuses on the methodology and baseline scenario. Baseline results for Ireland forecast a decline in private car energy demand growth (0.2%, compared with 4% in the period 2000–2008), caused by the relative growth in fleet efficiency compared with activity. - Highlights: ► Bottom-up private car energy forecasting model developed. ► The demographic and technological distribution of vehicle activity is a key veriable. ► Irish car energy demand growth predicted to slow steadily. ► Change in vehicle taxation forecast to save 10% energy.

  17. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ou Xunmin, E-mail: oxm07@mails.tsinghua.edu.c [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang Xiliang, E-mail: zhang_xl@tsinghua.edu.c [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Chang Shiyan [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2010-08-15

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

  18. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport. Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ou, Xunmin [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Xiliang; Chang, Shiyan [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2010-08-15

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology. (author)

  19. Import demand of crude oil and economic growth. Evidence from India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Sajal

    2009-01-01

    This study establishes a long-run equilibrium relationship among quantity of crude oil import, income and price of the imported crude in India for the time span 1970-1971 to 2005-2006 using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration. Empirical results show that the long-term income elasticity of imported crude in India is 1.97 and there exists a unidirectional long-run causality running from economic growth to crude oil import. So reduction of crude oil import will not affect the future economic growth in India in the long-run. India should take various energy efficiency and demand side management measures in transport sector along with other measures like expanding and strengthening indigenous resource-base, substituting imported fuels by domestic fuels and de-controlling the price of petroleum products to reduce its import dependence. (author)

  20. Electricity supply industry modelling for multiple objectives under demand growth uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinrich, G.; Basson, L.; Howells, M.; Petrie, J.

    2007-01-01

    Appropriate energy-environment-economic (E3) modelling provides key information for policy makers in the electricity supply industry (ESI) faced with navigating a sustainable development path. Key challenges include engaging with stakeholder values and preferences, and exploring trade-offs between competing objectives in the face of underlying uncertainty. As a case study we represent the South African ESI using a partial equilibrium E3 modelling approach, and extend the approach to include multiple objectives under selected future uncertainties. This extension is achieved by assigning cost penalties to non-cost attributes to force the model's least-cost objective function to better satisfy non-cost criteria. This paper incorporates aspects of flexibility to demand growth uncertainty into each future expansion alternative by introducing stochastic programming with recourse into the model. Technology lead times are taken into account by the inclusion of a decision node along the time horizon where aspects of real options theory are considered within the planning process. Hedging in the recourse programming is automatically translated from being purely financial, to include the other attributes that the cost penalties represent. From a retrospective analysis of the cost penalties, the correct market signals, can be derived to meet policy goal, with due regard to demand uncertainty. (author)

  1. A scenarios study on future demands on container and truck sizes of the future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Kraaijenhagen; Jan Jansen; H. Graser; Stef Weijers; I. Szylar

    2012-01-01

    To what extent will future demands of worldwide operating parties, regarding the (tertiary) packaging of their freight flows, determine or influence the future dimensions of freight trucks? That is the question we address to in this paper. In this study we have studied what container sizes may fit

  2. Single-Family Houses That Meet The Future Energy Demands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Jørgen; Svendsen, Svend

    2002-01-01

    ). Before any further tightening of the regulations are introduced, however, it is necessary to illustrate the consequences of such actions with regard to finance, building technology, indoor climate and comfort. Therefore a series of investigations and experimental projects are being launched, in order...... to examine these consequences thoroughly. The department is presently contributing to this end by participating in quite a few investigative projects, where single-family houses are designed to meet the proposed future energy demands. This paper describes the results obtained from one such project where...... the department, in co-operation with a major building entrepreneur, has developed a single-family house that shows that there are no evident problems in meeting the future energy demands....

  3. Assessing residual hydropower potential of the La Plata Basin accounting for future user demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Popescu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available La Plata Basin is shared by five countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which have fast growing economies in South America. These countries need energy for their sustainable development; hence, hydropower can play a very important role as a renewable clean source of energy. This paper presents an analysis of the current hydropower production and electricity demand in La Plata Basin (LPB, and it analyses the maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin for a horizon of 30 yr (i.e. year 2040. Current hydropower production is estimated based on historical available data, while future energy production is deduced from the available water in the catchment (estimated based on measured hydrographs of the past years, whereas electricity demand is assessed by correlating existing electricity demand with the estimated population growth and economic development. The maximum and residual hydropower potential of the basin were assessed for the mean annual flows of the present hydrological regime (1970–2000 and topographical characteristics of the area.

    Computations were performed using an integrated GIS environment called VAPIDRO-ASTE released by the Research on Energy System (Italy. The residual hydropower potential of the basin is computed considering first that the water supply needs for population, industry and agriculture are served, and then hydropower energy is produced. The calculated hydropower production is found to be approximately half of the estimated electricity demand, which shows that there is a need to look for other sources of energy in the future.

  4. Comparisons of recent growth in actual demand, planned demand, and planned generating capacity at U. S. electric utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bopp, A.E. (James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States))

    1994-12-01

    During the winter of 1993, a number of U.S. electric utilities and some regional power pools discovered that current load exceeded generating capacity. Load restrictions followed, as entire regions-not just isolated utilities or even states-cut back. Was 1993 a typical, or simply a preview of the future If a preview, how did this shortage occur For a number of years, utilities, regulatory agencies, and power pools have been planning to add capacity at a much lower rate than the rate at which load has been growing. The National Electricity Reliability Council (NERC) has projected that eight of it's nine regions will have demand growth exceed capacity growth. The only region where capacity is growing faster is in the Texas Region. There are four reasons behind this shortage: excess capacity in the 1980's, disbelief in current forecasts, passage of the Clean Air act bringing stricter regulation on power plants, and the herd mentality where utilities have all delayed new plant construction.

  5. Long-range prospects of world energy demands and future energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozaki, Yasuji

    1998-01-01

    The long-range prospects for world energy demands are reviewed, and the major factors which are influential in relation to energy demands are discussed. The potential for various kinds of conventional and new energy sources such as fossil fuels, solar energies, nuclear fission, and fusion energies to need future energy demands is also discussed. (author)

  6. A search for distinctive features of demand-led growth models

    OpenAIRE

    Sergio Parrinello

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims at a critical and constructive assessment of some extensions of Keynes’s analysis of effective demand to the long period and growth. A criticism is addressed to a single-cause interpretation of the demand-led growth models and to the notion of normal capacity utilization adopted in such models. A positive argument tries to find a distinctive characterization of those extensions in the productive and financial conditions that make effective the autonomous changes in aggregate d...

  7. The role of nuclear power in meeting future energy demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuchs, K.

    1977-01-01

    Future energy demands and possibilities of meeting them are outlined. The current status and future developments of nuclear energetics all over the world and in the CMEA member states are discussed considering reactor safety, fission product releases, and thermal pollution of the environment

  8. Simple future weather files for estimating heating and cooling demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cox, Rimante Andrasiunaite; Drews, Martin; Rode, Carsten

    2015-01-01

    useful estimates of future energy demand of a building. Experimental results based on both the degree-day method and dynamic simulations suggest that this is indeed the case. Specifically, heating demand estimates were found to be within a few per cent of one another, while estimates of cooling demand...... were slightly more varied. This variation was primarily due to the very few hours of cooling that were required in the region examined. Errors were found to be most likely when the air temperatures were close to the heating or cooling balance points, where the energy demand was modest and even...... relatively large errors might thus result in only modest absolute errors in energy demand....

  9. A search for distinctive features of demand-led growth models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Parrinello

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at a critical and constructive assessment of some extensions of Keynes’s analysis of effective demand to the long period and growth. A criticism is addressed to a single-cause interpretation of the demand-led growth models and to the notion of normal capacity utilization adopted in such models. A positive argument tries to find a distinctive characterization of those extensions in the productive and financial conditions that make effective the autonomous changes in aggregate demand. It suggests a notion of normal capacity utilization as a range of distributions of normal utilization, related to the cost minimizing choice of techniques and to the persistence of the long term expectations of normal prices underlying the investment decisions. In such a context a long-period analysis with normal prices should avoid a dual steady growth where constant relative prices of capital goods correspond to constant proportions among the stocks of fixed capital.

  10. How to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Haiyun; Chen, Ji; Sivakumar, Bellie; Peart, Mervyn

    2017-04-01

    Regarded as a driving force in water, food and energy demands, the world's population has been increasing rapidly since the beginning of the 20th century. According to the medium-growth projection scenario of the United Nations, the world's population will reach 9.5 billion by 2050. In response to the continuously growing population during this century, water, food and energy demands have also been increasing rapidly, and social problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if no proper management strategies are adopted. Then, how to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future? This study focuses on the sustainable developments of population, water, food, energy and dams, and the significances of this study can be concluded as follows: First, we reveal the close association between dams and social development through analysing the related data for the period 1960-2010, and argue that construction of additional large dams will have to be considered as one of the best available options to meet the increasing water, food and energy demands in the future. We conduct the projections of global water, food and energy consumptions and dam development for the period 2010-2050, and the results show that, compared to 2010, the total water, food and energy consumptions in 2050 will increase by 20%, 34% and 37%, respectively. Moreover, it is projected that additional 4,340 dams will be constructed by 2050 all over the world. Second, we analyse the current situation of global water scarcity based on the related data representing water resources availability (per capita available water resources), dam development (the number of dams), and the level of economic development (per capita gross domestic product). At the global scale, water scarcity exists in more than 70% of the countries around the world, including 43 countries suffering from economic water scarcity and 129 countries suffering from physical water

  11. The effects of declining population growth on the demand for housing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas C. Marcin

    1974-01-01

    Declining population growth and unprecedented changes in the age structure of the population in the next several decades will profoundly affect housing demand in the next 50 years. A decline in housing demand and substantial change in the type of housing in demand are likely to occur by 1990.

  12. Future demands for an Industrialized Architecture?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beim, Anne

    2011-01-01

    When speaking about the future demands for industrialized architecture – or how to translate industrialized processes into tectonic sustainable design strategies in architecture – several questions come to mind. First of all, why is the building industry in comparison to the production industry...... these questions raise a wide-spread discussion, one could argue that the building industry can benefit from different ways of architectural synthesis thinking as a basis for improving. This understood in such a way that industrialized manufacturing technologies and products should be driven by ideas...

  13. The pharmacist Aggregate Demand Index to explain changing pharmacist demand over a ten-year period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, Katherine K; Shah, Bijal M; Barnett, Mitchell J

    2010-12-15

    To describe Aggregate Demand Index (ADI) trends from 1999-2010; to compare ADI time trends to concurrent data for US unemployment levels, US entry-level pharmacy graduates, and US retail prescription growth rate; and to determine which variables were significant predictors of ADI. Annual ADI data (dependent variable) were analyzed against annual unemployment rates, annual number of pharmacy graduates, and annual prescription growth rate (independent variables). ADI data trended toward lower demand levels for pharmacists since late 2006, paralleling the US economic downturn. National ADI data were most highly correlated with unemployment (p demand. Predictable increases in future graduates and other factors support revisiting the modeling process as new data accumulate.

  14. Scenarios for Demand Growth of Metals in Electricity Generation Technologies, Cars, and Electronic Appliances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deetman, Sebastiaan; Pauliuk, Stefan; van Vuuren, Detlef P; van der Voet, Ester; Tukker, Arnold

    2018-04-17

    This study provides scenarios toward 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars, and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt, and lithium. The study shows how highly technology-specific data on products and material flows can be used in integrated assessment models to assess global resource and metal demand. We use the Shared Socio-economic Pathways as implemented by the IMAGE integrated assessment model as a starting point. This allows us to translate information on the use of electronic appliances, cars, and renewable energy technologies into quantitative data on metal flows, through application of metal content estimates in combination with a dynamic stock model. Results show that total demand for copper, neodymium, and tantalum might increase by a factor of roughly 2 to 3.2, mostly as a result of population and GDP growth. The demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to increase much more, by a factor 10 to more than 20, as a result of future (hybrid) electric car purchases. This means that not just demographics, but also climate policies can strongly increase metal demand. This shows the importance of studying the issues of climate change and resource depletion together, in one modeling framework.

  15. Scenarios for Demand Growth of Metals in Electricity Generation Technologies, Cars, and Electronic Appliances

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    This study provides scenarios toward 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars, and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt, and lithium. The study shows how highly technology-specific data on products and material flows can be used in integrated assessment models to assess global resource and metal demand. We use the Shared Socio-economic Pathways as implemented by the IMAGE integrated assessment model as a starting point. This allows us to translate information on the use of electronic appliances, cars, and renewable energy technologies into quantitative data on metal flows, through application of metal content estimates in combination with a dynamic stock model. Results show that total demand for copper, neodymium, and tantalum might increase by a factor of roughly 2 to 3.2, mostly as a result of population and GDP growth. The demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to increase much more, by a factor 10 to more than 20, as a result of future (hybrid) electric car purchases. This means that not just demographics, but also climate policies can strongly increase metal demand. This shows the importance of studying the issues of climate change and resource depletion together, in one modeling framework. PMID:29533657

  16. Supply and demand perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trienekens, Pieter

    1999-01-01

    The outlook for the European gas market is one of steady growth. This growth will manifest itself in all regions and in all sectors of the market, but most strongly in the power generating sector. To meet future demand, it is necessary to bring gas to Western Europe from remote sources in Russia, North Africa and Norway. These new gas supplies require heavy investments in production and transportation, which can only be undertaken on the basis of long-term take-or-pay contracts. Famous examples of such contracts are the development of the Troll field, the Yamal-Europe pipeline connection, and the bringing on stream of Nigerian LNG for Europe. Tensions are likely to arise between the nature of these long-term gas contracts and the dynamic nature of demand in the gas market, and more specifically in the main growth market, the power sector. The presentation further elaborates on the tensions underlying supply and demand in the years to come

  17. Economics of Future Growth in Photovoltaics Manufacturing; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basore, Paul; Chung, Donald; Buonassisi, Tonio

    2015-06-14

    The past decade’s record of growth in the photovoltaic manufacturing industry indicates that global investment in manufacturing capacity for photovoltaic modules tends to increase in proportion to the size of the industry. The slope of this proportionality determines how fast the industry will grow in the future. Two key parameters determine this slope. One is the annual global investment in manufacturing capacity normalized to the manufacturing capacity for the previous year (capacity-normalized capital investment rate, CapIR, units $/W). The other is how much capital investment is required for each watt of annual manufacturing capacity, normalized to the service life of the assets (capacity-normalized capital demand rate, CapDR, units $/W). If these two parameters remain unchanged from the values they have held for the past few years, global manufacturing capacity will peak in the next few years and then decline. However, it only takes a small improvement in CapIR to ensure future growth in photovoltaics. Any accompanying improvement in CapDR will accelerate that growth.

  18. Economic growth to raise U.S. oil products, natural gas demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1994-01-01

    An accelerating economy will raise consumption of oil products and natural gas in the US this year. Contributing to demand growth will be the slump that began late last year in prices for crude oil and petroleum products. Some price recovery is likely in 1994, but there's little reason to expect a major increase. With oil production falling and demand rising, imports will have to climb again this year. OGJ projects a 2.6% increase this year following a 6.6% increase last year. Imports are expected to fill a record high 49.3% of US oil demand this year. The paper discusses energy and the economy, overall energy use, energy by source, the electrification trend, energy supplies, imports, refining operations, the growth of margins, and the energy demand of motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuels, residual fuel oils, other petroleum products, and natural gas

  19. Economic growth and energy demand in Brazil from 1930 to 1980

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theis, I.M.

    1988-10-01

    There are enough evidences that economic growth and energy demand are closely related indeed. These evidences show that the growth of the economic activity calls for greater energy inputs. The Brazilian case is similar to the other industrialized economies, in spite of our industrialization process being started only in the 1930. Two periods excelled as phases of quick and accelerated growth of the Economic Product: the later fifties and the famous miracle from 1968 to 1973. During those periods the demand for energy in Brazil increased to amounts previously unthinkable. More remarkable, however, is that, after those phases of accelerated growth, Brazilian economy had changed the consumption profile considerably: while, until 1968 firewood was the most important resource, since then petroleum has taken this position. (author). 213 refs, 115 tabs

  20. Helium supply demand in future years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laverick, C.

    1975-01-01

    Adequate helium will be available to the year 2000 AD to meet anticipated helium demands for present day applications and the development of new superconducting technologies of potential importance to the nation. It is almost certain that there will not be enough helium at acceptable financial and energy cost after the turn of the century to meet the needs of the many promising helium based technologies now under development. Serious consideration should be given to establishing priorities in development and application based upon their relative value to the country. In the first half of the next century, three ways of estimating helium demand lead to cumulative ranges of from 75 to 125 Gcf (economic study), 89 to 470 Gcf (projected national energy growth rates) and 154 to 328 Gcf (needs for new technologies). These needs contrast with estimated helium resources in natural gas after 2000 AD which may be as low as 10 or 126 Gcf depending upon how the federal helium program is managed and the nation's natural gas resources are utilized. The technological and financial return on a modest national investment in further helium storage and a rational long term helium program promises to be considerable

  1. The future prospects of supply and demand for urologists in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Youngho

    2017-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to forecast the future supply and demand for urologists and to discuss the possible policy implications. A demographic utilization-based model was used to calculate the total urologist requirements for Korea. Utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient genitourinary specialty services were estimated according to age, sex, and insurance status. These rates were used to estimate genitourinary specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to genitourinary physician requirements by applying per-genitourinary-physician productivity estimates. An in-and-out movement model for urologist supply was used. Depending on assumptions about data at each step in the method, the supply of urologic surgeons is expected to exceed the demand by 2025 under the current enrollment rate of specialists (43.5% in 2012) when comparing the results of the projections under demand scenarios 3 and 4. However, if the current enrollment rate persists, the imbalance in supply and demand will be not severe by 2030. The degree of imbalance can be alleviated by 2030 by maintaining the current occupancy rate of urologic residents of 43.5%. This study shows that the number of residents needs to be reduced according to the supply and demand for urologic surgeons. Moreover, a policy should be established to maintain the current occupancy rate of residents. The factors affecting the supply and demand of urologic surgeons are complicated. Thus, comprehensive policies encompassing these factors should be established with appropriate solutions.

  2. China's Coal: Demand, Constraints, and Externalities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aden, Nathaniel; Fridley, David; Zheng, Nina

    2009-07-01

    This study analyzes China's coal industry by focusing on four related areas. First, data are reviewed to identify the major drivers of historical and future coal demand. Second, resource constraints and transport bottlenecks are analyzed to evaluate demand and growth scenarios. The third area assesses the physical requirements of substituting coal demand growth with other primary energy forms. Finally, the study examines the carbon- and environmental implications of China's past and future coal consumption. There are three sections that address these areas by identifying particular characteristics of China's coal industry, quantifying factors driving demand, and analyzing supply scenarios: (1) reviews the range of Chinese and international estimates of remaining coal reserves and resources as well as key characteristics of China's coal industry including historical production, resource requirements, and prices; (2) quantifies the largest drivers of coal usage to produce a bottom-up reference projection of 2025 coal demand; and (3) analyzes coal supply constraints, substitution options, and environmental externalities. Finally, the last section presents conclusions on the role of coal in China's ongoing energy and economic development. China has been, is, and will continue to be a coal-powered economy. In 2007 Chinese coal production contained more energy than total Middle Eastern oil production. The rapid growth of coal demand after 2001 created supply strains and bottlenecks that raise questions about sustainability. Urbanization, heavy industrial growth, and increasing per-capita income are the primary interrelated drivers of rising coal usage. In 2007, the power sector, iron and steel, and cement production accounted for 66% of coal consumption. Power generation is becoming more efficient, but even extensive roll-out of the highest efficiency units would save only 14% of projected 2025 coal demand for the power sector. A new wedge of

  3. A novel approach for examining future US domestic water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costs of repairing and expanding aging infrastructure and competing demands for water from other sectors such as industry and agriculture are stretching policy makers’ abilities to meet essential domestic drinking water needs for future generations. Using Bayesian statistic...

  4. Long term energy demand projection and potential for energy savings of Croatian tourism–catering trade sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irsag, Bojan; Pukšec, Tomislav; Duić, Neven

    2012-01-01

    Today, tourism represents one of the backbones of Croatian economy and one of the main factors of its growth. Combined with catering trade sector, tourism represents a significant energy consumer that has the tendencies of future growth. Since services sector, which tourism–catering trade sector is a part of, is not yet well described regarding future energy balances it would be very interesting to see how could possible future growth in tourism influence energy consumption of the services sector in Croatia. Through this paper long term energy demand projections of tourism–catering trade sector were studied with special emphasis on future growth of tourism in Croatia as well as different mechanisms that might lead to certain energy savings. Bottom-up approach was chosen as the most suitable one since it allows better quantification of different measures, technological or legal, that would influence future energy demand. Downside of this approach is extensive input data that is required to analyse and model future energy demand which is roughly divided into heating/cooling section and all other consumption. Results show that additional energy savings in the tourism–catering trade sector are possible if careful and rational demand side planning is in place. -- Highlights: ► Future energy demand of Croatian touristm–catering trade sector has been modelled. ► Model is roughly divided into two basic modes (heating/cooling and all other consumption). ► Different factors influencing future energy demand were implemented into the model. ► Possibilities for energy efficiency improvements have been presented.

  5. Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de, E-mail: fabio@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Nuclear and Engineering Center; Imakuma, Kengo, E-mail: kimakuma@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Information Technology Development Dept.

    2011-07-01

    This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

  6. Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de; Imakuma, Kengo

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

  7. The prospect of coal supplier for future coal: major expansion of energy supply/demand in Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tirtosoekotjo, S. [Ministry of Mines and Energy (Indonesia)

    2000-07-01

    Since the mid 1980s Indonesia's coal industry has shown a high development growth both in production and coal sales. The majority of coal producers are located in Sumatra and Kalimantan islands and the majority of domestic coal consumers are located in Java islands, while the major Indonesian coal exporters are Asia-Pacific countries (80%). In the future (up to 2003) there will be more domestic and export potential demand which will increase at an average of 2-3 million tons per annum (15%) and 5-7 million tons per annum (11%) respectively. 4 refs., 2 figs., 7 tabs.

  8. The future prospects of supply and demand for urologists in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this study was to forecast the future supply and demand for urologists and to discuss the possible policy implications. Materials and Methods A demographic utilization-based model was used to calculate the total urologist requirements for Korea. Utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient genitourinary specialty services were estimated according to age, sex, and insurance status. These rates were used to estimate genitourinary specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to genitourinary physician requirements by applying per-genitourinary-physician productivity estimates. An in-and-out movement model for urologist supply was used. Results Depending on assumptions about data at each step in the method, the supply of urologic surgeons is expected to exceed the demand by 2025 under the current enrollment rate of specialists (43.5% in 2012) when comparing the results of the projections under demand scenarios 3 and 4. However, if the current enrollment rate persists, the imbalance in supply and demand will be not severe by 2030. The degree of imbalance can be alleviated by 2030 by maintaining the current occupancy rate of urologic residents of 43.5%. Conclusions This study shows that the number of residents needs to be reduced according to the supply and demand for urologic surgeons. Moreover, a policy should be established to maintain the current occupancy rate of residents. The factors affecting the supply and demand of urologic surgeons are complicated. Thus, comprehensive policies encompassing these factors should be established with appropriate solutions. PMID:29124238

  9. Money growth volatility and the demand for money in Germany: Friedman's volatility hypothesis revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Brüggemann, Imke; Nautz, Dieter

    1997-01-01

    Recently, the Bundesbank claimed that monetary targeting has become considerably more diffcult by the increased volatility of short-term money growth. The present paper investigates the impact of German money growth volatility on income velocity and money demand in view of Friedman's money growth volatility hypothesis. Granger-causality tests provide some evidence for a velocity-volatility linkage. However the estimation of volatility-augmented money demand functions reveals that - in contras...

  10. Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H.C.; Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot

    2009-01-01

    Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand. This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TDP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days. (author)

  11. Future supply of, and demand for, titanium, copper and lead

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grover, L.K.

    1991-01-01

    A literature survey has been conducted to assess the future world supply of, and demand for, titanium, copper and lead. These metals are candidates for the fabrication of containers for the immobilization and disposal of Canada's nuclear used-fuel in an underground disposal vault at a Used-Fuel Disposal Centre. The Centre is assumed to begin operation by the year 2020 and continue for about 40 years. The survey has shown that the world has abundant supplies of titanium minerals (mostly in the form of ilmenite), which are expected to last up to at least 2110. However, for copper and lead, the balance between supply and demand may warrant increased monitoring beyond the year 2000. A number of factors that can influence supply and demand are discussed

  12. The Implication of Effectiveness of Demand for Money on Economic Growth in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taiwo Adewale Muritala

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The demand for money plays a major role in macroeconomic analysis, especially inselecting appropriate policy. This brings in the demand for money function which expresses amathematical relationship between the quantity of money demanded and its various determinants;interest rate, income, price level, credit availability, frequency of payments etc. Aggregate demandwill be affected only in so far as consumption or investment is affected by the change in the interestrate. Against this background, the task in this paper is to empirically analyze and examine theimplication of the effectiveness of demand for money on economic growth performance within theNigerian context between the periods of 1970-2008 through the use of the application of OrdinaryLeast Square method, the multiple linear regressionanalysis on E-views 7.0. The paper thereforeconcludes that money demand has a major effect on the aggregate demand which accounts for theGDP of the economy. This implies that by ensuring efficiency in demand for money, aggregatedemand would be achieved and adequately sustained growth that will ensure that inflation is atminimum will be achieved in the economy.

  13. Future butanes supply/demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whitley, S.C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper graphically depicts, through in-depth supply/demand analysis, how environmental regulations can be both bad and good for an industry. In the case of n-butane, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) summertime gasoline volatility regulations are a culprit - threatening to ultimately destroy refinery demand for the product as a gasoline blendstock. Waiting in the wings are environmental regulations that should eventually prove to be n-butane's savior. The regulations referred to here are the Clean Air Act (CAA) of 1990's mandate for motor fuel oxygenates. The negative impact of gasoline volatility regulations on U.S. n-butane demand and the positive impact that should come from the use of n-butane as a MTBE precursor are covered. Many variables exist which make studying the effects of these environmental regulations very difficult. Over the past three years RPC Group has conducted numerous studies on n-butane supply/demand, as impacted by both EPA gasoline volatility and fuel oxygenate regulations

  14. World gas supply-demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rushby, I.L.

    1996-01-01

    The rapid growth in demand for natural gas from a global perspective is documented in this paper. Low prices compared to other fuels and a return to normal winter temperatures is argued to be the cause of this increase in consumption. Natural gas production and prices for 1995 are discussed and forecasts made for future years, in particular the prospects for LNG in Asia. Data on energy growth and gas specific information in world markets are included. (UK)

  15. Future Customer Demand on the Supply Chain and Contribution of the Milk Run Concept at Iggesund Paperboard AB

    OpenAIRE

    Keller, Marielle; Kuylenstierna, Iris

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Since there is an increased uncertainty of future customer demand industries and firms have to be more responsive meeting this volatile demand. Making the supply chain more efficient is one way of doing this.   Iggesund Paperboard AB (IPAB) wants a greater consciousness about their future customer demand of the supply chain and therefore an investigation of the predicted future customer demand is made. This investigation included secondary data analysis and in-depth interviews with e...

  16. Future demand and advancement in medical fields for best allocation of research funding

    OpenAIRE

    Hermanns, Valerie; Grignano, Daniel; Latobesi, Andrew; Ho, Mark

    2017-01-01

    For a high school competition we were provided with access to altmetric data, and asked to predict the future of science. Based upon this, we shifted our focus to the medical sector, and to the correlation between future demand, and current research. Based on this focus, our goal was to predict which medical sectors will have the greatest need for research funding in the coming years. Our results will aid in the distribution of research funding in order to prepare for increased demand in medi...

  17. Temperature effects on future energy demand in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shivakumar, Abhishek

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is projected to adversely impact different parts of the world to varying extents. Preliminary studies show that Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts, including changes to precipitation levels and temperatures. This work will analyse the effect of changes in temperature on critical systems such as energy supply and demand. Factors that determine energy demand include income, population, temperature (represented by cooling and heating degree days), and household structures. With many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa projected to experience rapid growth in both income and population levels, this study aims to quantify the amplified effects of these factors - coupled with temperature changes - on energy demand. The temperature effects will be studied across a range of scenarios for each of the factors mentioned above, and identify which of the factors is likely to have the most significant impact on energy demand in Sub-Saharan Africa. Results of this study can help set priorities for decision-makers to enhance the climate resilience of critical infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa.

  18. Projection of Chinese motor vehicle growth, oil demand, and CO{sub 2}emissions through 2050.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, M.; Huo, H.; Johnson, L.; He, D.

    2006-12-20

    As the vehicle population in China increases, oil consumption and carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions associated with on-road transportation are rising dramatically. During this study, we developed a methodology to project trends in the growth of the vehicle population, oil demand, and CO{sub 2} emissions associated with on-road transportation in China. By using this methodology, we projected--separately--the number of highway vehicles, motorcycles, and rural vehicles in China through 2050. We used three scenarios of highway vehicle growth (high-, mid-, and low-growth) to reflect patterns of motor vehicle growth that have occurred in different parts of the world (i.e., Europe and Asia). All are essentially business-as-usual scenarios in that almost none of the countries we examined has made concerted efforts to manage vehicle growth or to offer serious alternative transportation means to satisfy people's mobility needs. With this caveat, our projections showed that by 2030, China could have more highway vehicles than the United States has today, and by 2035, it could have the largest number of highway vehicles in the world. By 2050, China could have 486-662 million highway vehicles, 44 million motorcycles, and 28 million rural vehicles. These numbers, which assume essentially unmanaged vehicle growth, would result in potentially disastrous effects on the urban infrastructure, resources, and other social and ecological aspects of life in China. We designed three fuel economy scenarios, from conservative to aggressive, on the basis of current policy efforts and expectations of near-future policies in China and in developed countries. It should be noted that these current and near-future policies have not taken into consideration the significant potential for further fuel economy improvements offered by advanced technologies such as electric drive technologies (e.g., hybrid electric vehicles and fuel-cell vehicles). By using vehicle growth projections and

  19. Planning for community resilience to future United States domestic water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costs of repairing and expanding aging infrastructure and competing demands for water from other sectors such as industry and agriculture are stretching water managers’ abilities to meet essential domestic drinking water needs for future generations. Using Bayesian statistical mo...

  20. Assessment of demand for natural gas from the electricity sector in India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Victor, David G.

    2009-01-01

    Electricity sector is among the key users of natural gas. The sustained electricity deficit and environment policies have added to an already rising demand for gas. This paper tries to understand gas demand in future from electricity sector. This paper models the future demand for gas in India from...... the electricity sector under alternative scenarios for the period 2005–2025, using bottom-up ANSWER MARKAL model. The scenarios are differentiated by alternate economic growth projections and policies related to coal reforms, infrastructure choices and local environment. The results across scenarios show that gas...... competes with coal as a base-load option if price difference is below US $ 4 per MBtu. At higher price difference gas penetrates only the peak power market. Gas demand is lower in the high economic growth scenario, since electricity sector is more flexible in substitution of primary energy. Gas demand...

  1. Robustness of the Drinking Water Distribution Network under Changing Future Demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Agudelo-Vera, C.; Blokker, M.; Vreeburg, J.; Bongard, T.; Hillegers, S.; Van der Hoek, J.P.

    2014-01-01

    A methodology to determine the robustness of the drinking water distribution system is proposed. The performance of three networks under ten future demand scenarios was tested, using head loss and residence time as indicators. The scenarios consider technological and demographic changes. Daily

  2. A robust optimization model for green regional logistics network design with uncertainty in future logistics demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezhi Zhang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article proposes a new model to address the design problem of a sustainable regional logistics network with uncertainty in future logistics demand. In the proposed model, the future logistics demand is assumed to be a random variable with a given probability distribution. A set of chance constraints with regard to logistics service capacity and environmental impacts is incorporated to consider the sustainability of logistics network design. The proposed model is formulated as a two-stage robust optimization problem. The first-stage problem before the realization of future logistics demand aims to minimize a risk-averse objective by determining the optimal location and size of logistics parks with CO2 emission taxes consideration. The second stage after the uncertain logistics demand has been determined is a scenario-based stochastic logistics service route choices equilibrium problem. A heuristic solution algorithm, which is a combination of penalty function method, genetic algorithm, and Gauss–Seidel decomposition approach, is developed to solve the proposed model. An illustrative example is given to show the application of the proposed model and solution algorithm. The findings show that total social welfare of the logistics system depends very much on the level of uncertainty in future logistics demand, capital budget for logistics parks, and confidence levels of the chance constraints.

  3. Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallaba, Florian; Olin, Stefan; Engström, Kerstin; Abdi, Abdulhakim M.; Boke-Olén, Niklas; Lehsten, Veiko; Ardö, Jonas; Seaquist, Jonathan W.

    2017-12-01

    In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production) supply-demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell), hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply shortfalls stem from

  4. Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limanond, Thirayoot; Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj; Srikaew, Artit

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: → Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. → The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. → The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

  5. Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Limanond, Thirayoot, E-mail: tlimanond@yahoo.co [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Srikaew, Artit [School of Electrical Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand)

    2011-05-15

    The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: {yields} Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. {yields} The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. {yields} The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

  6. Domestic demand for petroleum in OPEC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakravorty, U.; Fesharaki, F.; Zhou, S.

    2000-01-01

    The literature on OPEC energy policy has focused primarily on its production and export potential. The rapidly increasing domestic demand for petroleum products in OPEC countries has often been ignored. This study estimates domestic demand for petroleum products by the major OPEC economies and forecasts consumption trends under alternative assumptions regarding economic growth and price deregulation. It concludes that product demand is generally price and income inelastic and thus domestic consumption in OPEC will continue to grow rapidly, even if domestic prices are raised closer to world levels in the near future

  7. Global supply and demand of metals in the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Backman, Carl-Magnus

    2008-01-01

    This article is a short review on the subject of diminishing mineral resources in a world with increasing population. The concepts of reserves, resources, and life index are described. A forecast is made on the global consumption in the year 2050 of the metals iron (Fe), aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb). Evidence indicates that a physical depletion of metals does not occur (fixed stock paradigm) but certain metals will become too expensive to extract (opportunity cost paradigm). The future demand for cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), and selenium (Se) is presented. Finally, some metals presently of great interest for mineral prospectors that may have an important role in the future society are presented.

  8. Climate variability and demand growth as drivers of water scarcity in the Turkwel river basin: a bottom-up risk assessment of a data-sparse basin in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirpa, F. A.; Dyer, E.; Hope, R.; Dadson, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    Sustainable water management and allocation are essential for maintaining human well-being, sustaining healthy ecosystems, and supporting steady economic growth. The Turkwel river basin, located in north-western Kenya, experiences a high level of water scarcity due to its arid climate, high rainfall variability, and rapidly growing water demand. However, due to sparse hydro-climatic data and limited literature, the water resources system of the basin has been poorly understood. Here we apply a bottom-up climate risk assessment method to estimate the resilience of the basin's water resources system to growing demand and climate stressors. First, using a water resource system model and historical climate data, we construct a climate risk map that depicts the way in which the system responds to climate change and variability. Then we develop a set of water demand scenarios to identify the conditions that potentially lead to the risk of unmet water demand and groundwater depletion. Finally, we investigate the impact of climate change and variability by stress testing these development scenarios against historically strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years and future climate projections from multiple Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The results reveal that climate variability and increased water demand are the main drivers of water scarcity in the basin. Our findings show that increases in water demand due to expanded irrigation and population growth exert the strongest influence on the ability of the system to meet water resource supply requirements, and in all cases considered increase the impacts of droughts caused by future climate variability. Our analysis illustrates the importance of combining analysis of future climate risks with other development decisions that affect water resources planning. Policy and investment decisions which maximise water use efficiency in the present day are likely to impart resilience to climate change and variability under a

  9. Ant Larval Demand Reduces Aphid Colony Growth Rates in an Ant-Aphid Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James M. Cook

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Ants often form mutualistic interactions with aphids, soliciting honeydew in return for protective services. Under certain circumstances, however, ants will prey upon aphids. In addition, in the presence of ants aphids may increase the quantity or quality of honeydew produced, which is costly. Through these mechanisms, ant attendance can reduce aphid colony growth rates. However, it is unknown whether demand from within the ant colony can affect the ant-aphid interaction. In a factorial experiment, we tested whether the presence of larvae in Lasius niger ant colonies affected the growth rate of Aphis fabae colonies. Other explanatory variables tested were the origin of ant colonies (two separate colonies were used and previous diet (sugar only or sugar and protein. We found that the presence of larvae in the ant colony significantly reduced the growth rate of aphid colonies. Previous diet and colony origin did not affect aphid colony growth rates. Our results suggest that ant colonies balance the flow of two separate resources from aphid colonies- renewable sugars or a protein-rich meal, depending on demand from ant larvae within the nest. Aphid payoffs from the ant-aphid interaction may change on a seasonal basis, as the demand from larvae within the ant colony waxes and wanes.

  10. Future Supply and Demand for Oncologists : Challenges to Assuring Access to Oncology Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Clese; Salsberg, Edward; Forte, Gaetano; Bruinooge, Suanna; Goldstein, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Purpose To conduct a comprehensive analysis of supply of and demand for oncology services through 2020. This study was commissioned by the Board of Directors of ASCO. Methods New data on physician supply gathered from surveys of practicing oncologists, oncology fellows, and fellowship program directors were analyzed, along with 2005 American Medical Association Masterfile data on practicing medical oncologists, hematologists/oncologists, and gynecologic oncologists, to determine the baseline capacity and to forecast visit capacity through 2020. Demand for visits was calculated by applying age-, sex-, and time-from-diagnosis-visit rate data from the National Cancer Institute's analysis of the 1998 to 2002 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database to the National Cancer Institute's cancer incidence and prevalence projections. The cancer incidence and prevalence projections were calculated by applying a 3-year average (2000–2002) of age- and sex-specific cancer rates from SEER to the US Census Bureau population projections released on March 2004. The baseline supply and demand forecasts assume no change in cancer care delivery and physician practice patterns. Alternate scenarios were constructed by changing assumptions in the baseline models. Results Demand for oncology services is expected to rise rapidly, driven by the aging and growth of the population and improvements in cancer survival rates, at the same time the oncology workforce is aging and retiring in increasing numbers. Demand is expected to rise 48% between 2005 and 2020. The supply of services provided by oncologists during this time is expected to grow more slowly, approximately 14%, based on the current age distribution and practice patterns of oncologists and the number of oncology fellowship positions. This translates into a shortage of 9.4 to 15.0 million visits, or 2,550 to 4,080 oncologists—roughly one-quarter to one-third of the 2005 supply. The baseline projections do not

  11. Alcohol Demand, Future Orientation, and Craving Mediate the Relation Between Depressive and Stress Symptoms and Alcohol Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soltis, Kathryn E; McDevitt-Murphy, Meghan E; Murphy, James G

    2017-06-01

    Elevated depression and stress have been linked to greater levels of alcohol problems among young adults even after taking into account drinking level. This study attempts to elucidate variables that might mediate the relation between symptoms of depression and stress and alcohol problems, including alcohol demand, future time orientation, and craving. Participants were 393 undergraduates (60.8% female, 78.9% White/Caucasian) who reported at least 2 binge-drinking episodes (4/5+ drinks for women/men, respectively) in the previous month. Participants completed self-report measures of stress and depression, alcohol demand, future time orientation, craving, and alcohol problems. In separate mediation models that accounted for gender, race, and weekly alcohol consumption, future orientation and craving significantly mediated the relation between depressive symptoms and alcohol problems. Alcohol demand, future orientation, and craving significantly mediated the relation between stress symptoms and alcohol problems. Heavy-drinking young adults who experience stress or depression are likely to experience alcohol problems, and this is due in part to elevations in craving and alcohol demand, and less sensitivity to future outcomes. Interventions targeting alcohol misuse in young adults with elevated levels of depression and stress should attempt to increase future orientation and decrease craving and alcohol reward value. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  12. OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) oil demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntington, H.G.

    1993-01-01

    Econometric response surfaces for nine different world oil models are estimated for aggregate oil demand with in the developed countries of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The estimates are based upon scenario results reported for the 1989-2010 period in a recent model comparison study. The response surface approach provides a parsimonious summary of model responses. It enables one to estimate long-run price elasticities directly rather than to infer such responses from 20-year cross-scenario results. It also shows more directly the significant effect of initial demand conditions (in 1988) on future oil demand growth. Due to the dynamic nature of the oil demand response, past prices exert a strongly positive effect on future oil demands in some models, but little or even negative effect in other models. On the basis of this finding, we urge demand modellers to be much more explicit about what their systems reveal about the extent of disequilibrium embedded in their model's starting oil demand conditions. (author)

  13. Energy demand in Mexico, a vision to the future; La demanda energetica en Mexico, una vision al futuro

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Esquivel E, J.; Xolocostli M, J. V., E-mail: jaime.esquivel@inin.gob.mx [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Toluca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

    2017-09-15

    The energy planning allows to know the current and future energy needs of the country, with the objective of efficiently guaranteeing the supply of energy demand through the diversity of the sources used, promoting the use of clean energies such as nuclear energy. Mexico, by participating in the ARCAL project -Support for the preparation of national energy plans in order to meet energy needs in the countries of the region, making effective use of resources in the medium and long term- has developed the study of energy demand for the period 2015-2050, where, given the socio-economic and technological conditions of the country in 2012, four scenarios are proposed: Decrement al, with decreases in the GDP growth rate and in the production of the manufacturing sector; Incremental, which shows an increase in the GDP growth rate and in the manufacturing sector; Incremental Dual, scenario similar to the Incremental plus an incentive in the service sector and finally, the Tendencial scenario, which corresponds to a typical scenario-business as usual-. The study that concerns this work was developed with the MAED tool and the results that are presented correspond to the energy requirements in each scenario, for the agriculture, construction, mining, manufacturing and transport sectors. (Author)

  14. Natural gas central to world's future energy mix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carson, M.M.

    1997-01-01

    Continued growth in demand for natural gas is one of three pillars around which the energy mix of the future will take shape and upon which energy strategies should be based. The others are consumption efficiency and growth of renewable energy sources. This paper evaluates world energy supply and demand and includes an analysis of world pipeline gas, electricity, and LNG trends. The paper discusses the natural gas resource, proved reserves, reserves growth, gas prices and demand, country demand trends, world energy use, gas pipeline construction, power generation, electricity consumption and prices, and global carbon emissions

  15. Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John P DeLong

    Full Text Available Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

  16. Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar; Hamilton, Marcus J

    2010-10-05

    Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

  17. Demand response from the non-domestic sector: Early UK experiences and future opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grünewald, Philipp; Torriti, Jacopo

    2013-01-01

    Demand response is believed by some to become a major contributor towards system balancing in future electricity networks. Shifting or reducing demand at critical moments can reduce the need for generation capacity, help with the integration of renewables, support more efficient system operation and thereby potentially lead to cost and carbon reductions for the entire energy system. In this paper we review the nature of the response resource of consumers from different non-domestic sectors in the UK, based on extensive half hourly demand profiles and observed demand responses. We further explore the potential to increase the demand response capacity through changes in the regulatory and market environment. The analysis suggests that present demand response measures tend to stimulate stand-by generation capacity in preference to load shifting and we propose that extended response times may favour load based demand response, especially in sectors with significant thermal loads. - Highlights: • Empirical demand response data from non-domestic sector evaluated. • Load profiles suggest strong sector dependence on availability response at system peak. • Majority of aggregated demand response still stems from stand-by generation, not from demand turn down. • Scope for substantial increase in demand response capacity if response times were extended

  18. Uranium supply and demand, 1980-1995: a Uranium Institute analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erkes, P.; Clements, A.; Lloyd, B.; Darmayan, P.

    1982-01-01

    A major factor affecting the growth of the uranium market has reduced global economic growth, leading to a reduced demand for electricity and a lack of urgency regarding the need for new generating capacity. Factors influencing the demand for uranium are commitments to enrichment contracts, stockpiles and procurement policies, nuclear capacity forecasts. The present over supply, caused by the oil price rise of the early 1970's is likely to persist into the mid 1980's. Supply and demand should reach a balance in the second half of the 1980's or early 1990's. Economic incentives must be available to producers to encourage future exploration and mine development. (U.K.)

  19. Endocrine manipulation of growth in animals: Future prospects especially in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buttery, P.J.

    1989-01-01

    The successful use of a number of anabolic steroid preparations in numerous countries has demonstrated that manipulation of an animal's endocrine status can lead to a substantially enhanced growth rate. Despite evidence that, used correctly, these materials present no health hazard to the consumer of treated meat, their use is not permitted in several countries. This prohibition influences the extent of world trade in meat. Modern biotechnology offers other methods of enhancing growth, e.g. the use of peptide hormones or growth factors produced by recombinant DNA technologies. Potentially, the immune response can also be exploited to increase growth and in the longer term transgenic animals may also prove a satisfactory alternative. Animals with enhanced growth potential will however require an enhanced food supply. In many parts of the world what is required is a method to lower the nutrient demands of animals during periods of feed shortage. This approach requires a substantially different philosophy and of course separate financial resources for its development. In developing countries, despite the excitement associated with new technologies, there appears to be much more to be gained, at least in the immediate future, by improving the nutrition and the health of animals. (author). 28 refs, 6 tabs

  20. Post-Keynesyen Talep Yönelimli Büyüme Modelleri(Post-Keynesian Demand Oriented Growth Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yelda Bugay TEKGÜL

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Economic literature generally contains growth models dominated by classical/neo-classical approach. These models focused on the differences in the growth rates among countries in terms of supply of factors of production. Wheras capital accumulation and technical progress are viewed as the main determinant of the growth, increase in per-capita income is only determined by supply-side factors. Should the economy is in the position of under-employment and under-capacity, then these approaches are not capable of satisfactory explanation for the economic growth. Assumptions of supply-side approach are endogenous regarding the economic system and restricted by the demand. In an open economy, growth can be defined as a component of a Keynesian demand-oriented economic system and it is genarally called as Post-Keynesian growth models. These models have been developed on two main axes: “Export-led growth model”, introduced by N. Kaldor and “balance-of-payment constrained growth model”introduced by A.P.Thirwall in 1979. Export-led growth model is based on the assumption that internally determined productivity increases generate a virtous circle economy. Balance-of-payment constrained growth model, on the other hand, is based on the assumption that foreign trade deficit cannot continue forever and that long-run growth rate is a function of the export and elasticity of demand for import of the country. The objective of this paper is to discuss and critisize export-led growth and balance-of-payment constrained growth model.

  1. The impact of health information technology and e-health on the future demand for physician services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner, Jonathan P; Yeh, Susan; Blumenthal, David

    2013-11-01

    Arguably, few factors will change the future face of the American health care workforce as widely and dramatically as health information technology (IT) and electronic health (e-health) applications. We explore how such applications designed for providers and patients will affect the future demand for physicians. We performed what we believe to be the most comprehensive review of the literature to date, including previously published systematic reviews and relevant individual studies. We estimate that if health IT were fully implemented in 30 percent of community-based physicians' offices, the demand for physicians would be reduced by about 4-9 percent. Delegation of care to nurse practitioners and physician assistants supported by health IT could reduce the future demand for physicians by 4-7 percent. Similarly, IT-supported delegation from specialist physicians to generalists could reduce the demand for specialists by 2-5 percent. The use of health IT could also help address regional shortages of physicians by potentially enabling 12 percent of care to be delivered remotely or asynchronously. These estimated impacts could more than double if comprehensive health IT systems were adopted by 70 percent of US ambulatory care delivery settings. Future predictions of physician supply adequacy should take these likely changes into account.

  2. Episodic future thinking reduces delay discounting and cigarette demand: an investigation of the good-subject effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Jeffrey S; Tegge, Allison N; Turner, Jamie K; Bickel, Warren K

    2018-04-01

    Episodic future thinking (EFT), an intervention involving mental simulation of future events, has been shown to reduce both delay discounting and cigarette self-administration. In the present study, we extended these findings by showing that EFT in a web-based sample of smokers reduces delay discounting and intensity of demand for cigarettes (ad libitum consumption) in a hypothetical purchase task. No effect was observed on elasticity of demand (sensitivity to price) or cigarette craving. We also explored whether demand characteristics (specifically, the "good-subject" effect) might be responsible for observed effects. EFT participants were significantly better able than control participants to discern the experimental hypothesis. However, EFT participants were not better than controls at identifying whether they had been assigned to the experimental group and, likewise, showed no differences in attitudes about the experiment and experimenter. Importantly, effects of EFT on delay discounting and demand remained significant even when controlling for measures of demand characteristics, indicating that EFT's effects are independent of participants' perceptions about the experiment.

  3. Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

    2018-03-06

    The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

  4. Economic growth, regional disparities and energy demand in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng, Yu; Shi, Xunpeng; Zhang, Dandan

    2014-01-01

    Using the panel data of 27 provinces between 1978 and 2008, we employed a instrumental regression technique to examine the relationship between economic growth, energy demand/production and the related policies in China. The empirical results show that forming a cross-province integrated energy market will in general reduce the response of equilibrium user costs of energy products to their local demand and production, through cross-regional energy transfer (including both energy trade and cross-regional reallocation). In particular, reducing transportation costs and improving marketization level are identified as two important policy instruments to enhance the role of energy market integration. The findings support the argument for a more competitive cross-province energy transfer policies and calls for more developed energy connectivity and associate institutional arrangements within China. These policy implications may also be extended to the East Asia Summit region where energy market integration is being actively promoted. - Highlights: • Development driving energy demand has different impacts on energy prices than others. • EMI will reduce the response of equilibrium energy prices to local demand and production. • Reducing transportation costs and improving marketization level enhance the role of EMI. • More market competition and better physical and institutional connectivity are better. • Policy implications to China may be extended to the East Asia Summit region

  5. Modeling and analysis of long term energy demands in residential sector of pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rashid, T.; Sahir, M.H.

    2015-01-01

    Residential sector is the core among the energy demand sectors in Pakistan. Currently, various techniques are being used worldwide to assess future energy demands including integrated system modeling (ISM). Therefore, the current study is focused on implementation of ISM approach for future energy demand analysis of Pakistan's residential sector in terms of increase in population, rapid urbanization, household size and type, and increase/decrease in GDP. A detailed business-as-usual (BAU) model is formulated in TIMES energy modeling framework using different factors like growth in future energy services, end-use technology characterization, and restricted fuel supplies. Additionally, the developed model is capable to compare the projected energy demand under different scenarios e.g. strong economy, weak economy and energy efficiency. The implementation of ISM proved a viable approach to predict the future energy demands of Pakistan's residential sector. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the energy consumption in the residential sector would be 46.5 Mtoe (Million Ton of Oil Equivalent) in 2040 compared to 23 Mtoe of the base year (2007) along with 600% increase in electricity demands. The study further maps the potential residential energy policies to congregate the future demands. (author)

  6. World energy supply and demand and the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lantzke, U.

    1977-01-01

    The OECD's world energy outlook analyses projected trends in energy damnd and supply for the OECD area and other major global regions to 1985. It provides a brief discussion of trends after 1985. OECD energy consumption is projected to grow more slowly than in the past. Conservation effects will increase efficiency of energy use per unit of economic growth. All domestic energy supplies in the OECD are projected to expand faster than in the past. The relative share of non-fossil energy sources in total production will be almost doubled. Assuming moderate economic growth, existing energy policies and a constnat real price for oil, the outlook's reference case projects OECD oil import at 35 million barrels a day by 1985. This level of import demand, when combined with the import needs of other oil importing areas, could approach the limit of availability of world oil supplies and as a result cause severe disequilibrium in world energy markets. The outlook indicates such severe disruption can be avoided by action to improve the world energy supply and demand balance without impeding economic growth objectives. Strong measures will be required both to conserve energy and to develop new energy supplies. The biggest increment to the OECD's energy supply by 1985 is expected to come from nuclear power. This substantial nuclear contribution will be inevitable and irreplaceable. As a result urgent solutions to problems concerning safety, availability of fuel cycle services, the environment, cost escalation and construction delays will be required

  7. Estimates of future demand for uranium and nuclear fuel cycle services

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krymm, R; Woite, G [International Atomic Energy Agency, Division of Nuclear Power and Reactors, Economic Studies Section, Vienna (Austria)

    1976-07-01

    As a review of forecasts made over the last few years amply demonstrates, projections of nuclear power capacity on a country, regional or world basis are subject to uncertainties. It summarizes the evolution of estimates made in the recent past, should provide a sobering reminder of the advisability of relying on ranges rather than on single figures. Although they are derived from a relatively narrow range of assumptions for nuclear power capacity, the alternative estimates of demands for uranium and nuclear-fuel-cycle services differ by about 50%. If plausible variations in breeder penetration, load factors, tails assays and fuel performance were taken into account, a ratio of 2 between maximum and minimum possible demands for the 2000 could easily be approached. Thus, for instance, a 15% (instead of 5%) breeder penetration by the year 2000 would decrease annual natural uranium demand by about 10%, a drop of load factor from 0.7 to 0.6 would drop the demand by another 10%, a decrease in tail assay from 0.25% to 0.2% would drop the demand by 8%. These momentous uncertainties, characteristic of medium- and long-term demand projections, offer a sharp contrast to the inflexibility of short-term requirements. Once a nuclear plant is ordered, the demand for the fuel services required for its core and for its replacement loadings is practically fixed (subject to minor trade-offs) and it can only be delayed in time by accepting exceedingly heavy additional costs. The demand for uranium can be characterized as being uncertain in the future and inelastic in the present. It faces sources of supply which, with the exception of fabrication and conversion facilities, are characterized by long planning times, lengthy prospecting and construction times, and above all by heavy capital investments. This combination offers an almost ideal framework for instability and wild price fluctuations if consumers and suppliers operate independently seeking temporary guidance in their

  8. Estimates of future demand for uranium and nuclear fuel cycle services

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krymm, R.; Woite, G.

    1976-01-01

    As a review of forecasts made over the last few years amply demonstrates, projections of nuclear power capacity on a country, regional or world basis are subject to uncertainties. It summarizes the evolution of estimates made in the recent past, should provide a sobering reminder of the advisability of relying on ranges rather than on single figures. Although they are derived from a relatively narrow range of assumptions for nuclear power capacity, the alternative estimates of demands for uranium and nuclear-fuel-cycle services differ by about 50%. If plausible variations in breeder penetration, load factors, tails assays and fuel performance were taken into account, a ratio of 2 between maximum and minimum possible demands for the 2000 could easily be approached. Thus, for instance, a 15% (instead of 5%) breeder penetration by the year 2000 would decrease annual natural uranium demand by about 10%, a drop of load factor from 0.7 to 0.6 would drop the demand by another 10%, a decrease in tail assay from 0.25% to 0.2% would drop the demand by 8%. These momentous uncertainties, characteristic of medium- and long-term demand projections, offer a sharp contrast to the inflexibility of short-term requirements. Once a nuclear plant is ordered, the demand for the fuel services required for its core and for its replacement loadings is practically fixed (subject to minor trade-offs) and it can only be delayed in time by accepting exceedingly heavy additional costs. The demand for uranium can be characterized as being uncertain in the future and inelastic in the present. It faces sources of supply which, with the exception of fabrication and conversion facilities, are characterized by long planning times, lengthy prospecting and construction times, and above all by heavy capital investments. This combination offers an almost ideal framework for instability and wild price fluctuations if consumers and suppliers operate independently seeking temporary guidance in their

  9. Demand of natural gas; methodology for their projection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, UPME

    1999-01-01

    The objective of integrated energetic planning process, is to propose political that assure the full supply of energy in the country, at competitive costs and with a rational use of the resources. Of there that it requires the periodic analysis of the information on the sectors of energy supplies and demand and on their interrelation with the economic, social and environmental environment. Among the variables that should stay upgraded during the planning process, it stands out the energy demand. The fact of to evaluate and to project demands goes to predict the consumer's of energy low uncertain conditions future behavior that it can affect the prospective results, so much in the short term as in the long term. One of the alternatives to face the uncertainty has more than enough future events it consists on building scenarios in those that values different from the variables that are considered with more incidences in the projected results participate. In the case of the energy, the variables that, generally, they are considered determinant, are the economic growth, the prices variation, the technological developments, the substitution among energy, the change of patterns of the population's consumption and the rational use of the energy. The application of the methodology of scenarios allows to settle down, for this case, bands of projection of the energy demand, in global form or for each energy type, specify in each sector and for each use. Once it is had the projection band, it is possible to determine the half growth of long term. The energy planning should respond in immediate form to the scenario changes, through the revision of the state projections. A frequent error, typical of the old sub-sector planning, consists on maintaining, in an irrational way, established growth percentages, when they intend new scenarios of economic growth

  10. Aggregated Demand Modelling Including Distributed Generation, Storage and Demand Response

    OpenAIRE

    Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Hill, David J.; Verbic, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    It is anticipated that penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems will increase further in the next decades mainly due to environmental issues. In the long term of several decades, which we refer to in terms of the future grid (FG), balancing between supply and demand will become dependent on demand actions including demand response (DR) and energy storage. So far, FG feasibility studies have not considered these new demand-side developments for modelling future demand. I...

  11. New Zealand's neurologist workforce: a pragmatic analysis of demand, supply and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranta, Annemarei Anna; Tiwari, Priyesh; Mottershead, John; Abernethy, David; Simpson, Mark; Brickell, Kiri; Lynch, Christopher; Walker, Elizabeth; Frith, Richard

    2015-08-07

    To estimate current and future specialist neurologist demand and supply to assist with health sector planning. Current demand for the neurology workforce in New Zealand was assessed using neuroepidemiological data. To assess current supply, all New Zealand neurology departments were surveyed to determine current workforce and estimate average neurologist productivity. Projections were made based on current neurologists anticipated retirement rates and addition of new neurologists based on current training positions. We explored several models to address the supply-demand gap. The current supply of neurologists in New Zealand is 36 full-time equivalents (FTE), insufficient to meet current demand of 74 FTE. Demand will grow over time and if status quo is maintained the gap will widen. Pressures on healthcare dollars are ever increasing and we cannot expect to address the identified service gap by immediately doubling the number of neurologists. Instead we propose a 12-year strategic approach with investments to enhance service productivity, strengthen collaborative efforts between specialists and general service providers, moderately increase the number of neurologists and neurology training positions, and develop highly skilled non-specialists including trained.

  12. Characteristics of future air cargo demand and impact on aircraft development: A report on the Cargo/Logistic Airlift Systems Study (CLASS) project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitehead, A. H., Jr.

    1978-01-01

    Current domestic and international air cargo operations are studied and the characteristics of 1990 air cargo demand are postulated from surveys conducted at airports and with shippers, consignees, and freight forwarders as well as air, land, and ocean carriers. Simulation and route optimization programs are exercised to evaluate advanced aircraft concepts. The results show that proposed changes in the infrastructure and improved cargo loading efficiencies are as important enhancing the prospects of air cargo growth as is the advent of advanced freighter aircraft. Potential reductions in aircraft direct operating costs are estimated and related to future total revenue. Service and cost elasticities are established and utilized to estimate future potential tariff reductions that may be realized through direct and indirect operating cost reductions and economies of scale.

  13. Uranium resources, production and demand in South Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brynard, H J; Ainslie, L C [Atomic Energy Corporation of South Africa Ltd., Pretoria (South Africa)

    1990-06-01

    This paper provides a review of the historical development of the South African uranium market and the current status of uranium exploration, resources and production. A prognosticated view of possible future demand for uranium in South Africa is attempted, taking cognisance of the finite nature of the country's coal resources and estimated world uranium demand. Although well endowed with uranium resources, South Africa could face a shortage of this commodity in the next century, should the predicted electricity growth materials. (author)

  14. Uranium resources, production and demand in South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brynard, H.J.; Ainslie, L.C.

    1990-01-01

    This paper provides a review of the historical development of the South African uranium market and the current status of uranium exploration, resources and production. A prognosticated view of possible future demand for uranium in South Africa is attempted, taking cognisance of the finite nature of the country's coal resources and estimated world uranium demand. Although well endowed with uranium resources, South Africa could face a shortage of this commodity in the next century, should the predicted electricity growth materials. (author)

  15. Future Electricity Demand of the Emerging European Countries and the CIS Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Fatih Bayramoglu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, one of the leading factors used in the evaluation of a country’s economic development is energy consumption. Because of economic growth, demand for energy is also increasing. In this study, the emerging European countries’ (the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Turkey and the CIS countries’ (Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan  electricity consumption has been forecasted for five years period (2015-2019. In the study, GM(1,1 Rolling Model, which is developed in the framework of Grey System Theory is used as a mathematical model for real-time forecasting. The results of the study show that there will not be a significant change in electricity demand in this two area during the 2015-2109 period.

  16. Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan Xiaoyu; Crookes, Roy J.

    2009-01-01

    Rapid growth of road vehicles, private vehicles in particular, has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand and imports, which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices, and a major contributor to China's GHG emission increase. This paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures. A detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector. The 'Business as Usual' scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The 'Best Case' scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control, fuel economy regulation, promoting diesel and gas vehicles, fuel tax and biofuel promotion, are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The total reduction potentials in the 'Best Case' scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated

  17. The future demand for and structural problems of Japanese Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imai, Atsushi; Inoue, Toshihiko; Teshima, Teruki; Ohno, Yuko; Yamashita, Takashi; Mitsuhashi, Norio; Hiraoka, Masahiro; Sumi, Minako

    2001-01-01

    Recently, as the number of elderly people in Japan is growing, so is the number of new cancer cases. The number of patients treated with radiotherapy is therefore also on the increase, so that it is important to estimate the future demand for radiotherapy and to make preparations for it. All the surveys were conducted for 106 facilities selected randomly out of 556 radiotherapy facilities in Japan. To obtain trends in the number of new cancer patients treated with radiotherapy in Japan, we conducted a survey with a self-administered mail questionnaire designed to obtain the number of new patients treated with radiotherapy for each year of the past decade (1990-99). The future number of new patients treated with radiotherapy was estimated from the data thus obtained. To investigate structural problems of Japanese radiotherapy, surveys about the number of treatment machines and full-time equivalent (FTE) radiation oncologists were conducted according to data from the Japanese Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (JASTRO) structure survey and the Patterns of Care Study (PCS). We also compared the structure of Japanese radiotherapy with that in the USA. The number of patients treated with radiotherapy has increased for every institutional stratum, with an overall increase of 1.4-fold over the past 10 years in Japan. It is estimated that the number of cancer patients treated with radiotherapy will reach 190000 in 2015. In Japanese non-academic institutions, less than one FTE radiation oncologist has been managing many of these patients. In both equipment and manpower, academic institutions exceed non-academic institutions. The future demand for Japanese radiotherapy will grow substantially, so that it is of vital importance to prepare for it. Specifically, the number of FTE radiation oncologists must be increased. (author)

  18. Physically demanding work, fetal growth and the risk of adverse birth outcomes. The Generation R Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.A. Snijder (Claudia); T. Brand (Teus); V.W.V. Jaddoe (Vincent); A. Hofman (Albert); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); E.A.P. Steegers (Eric); A. Burdorf (Alex)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractObjectives: Work-related risk factors, such as long work hours, and physically demanding work have been suggested to adversely influence pregnancy outcome. The authors aimed to examine associations between various aspects of physically demanding work with fetal growth in different

  19. North American oil demand outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart, M.B.

    1995-01-01

    An understanding of the relationship of economic growth and potential petroleum product demand is needed to forecast the potential for North American oil demand growth as well as knowledge of world supply and price. The bullish expectations for economic growth in the US and Canada auger well for North American refiners and marketeers. The growth in world economic output forecast, however, means a larger oil demand and an increase in OPEC's pricing power. Such price increases could depress North American oil demand growth. (author)

  20. Uranium 2009 resources, production and demand

    CERN Document Server

    Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Paris

    2010-01-01

    With several countries currently building nuclear power plants and planning the construction of more to meet long-term increases in electricity demand, uranium resources, production and demand remain topics of notable interest. In response to the projected growth in demand for uranium and declining inventories, the uranium industry – the first critical link in the fuel supply chain for nuclear reactors – is boosting production and developing plans for further increases in the near future. Strong market conditions will, however, be necessary to trigger the investments required to meet projected demand. The "Red Book", jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a recognised world reference on uranium. It is based on information compiled in 40 countries, including those that are major producers and consumers of uranium. This 23rd edition provides a comprehensive review of world uranium supply and demand as of 1 January 2009, as well as data on global ur...

  1. Ontario demand forecast from January 2004 to December 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This document examined the demand forecast for electricity on the Independent Market Operator (IMO)-controlled grid in Ontario for the period 2004-2013. It serves as an assessment tool to determine whether existing and proposed generation and transmission facilities in the province will be sufficient to meet future electricity needs. Changes in methodology have been made to allow for an hourly peak versus the previously reported 20-minute peak value. Actual data through to the end of October 2002 was used to re-estimate energy demand. Compared to other developed countries, the outlook for the Canadian economy is optimistic. In addition, the economic forecast is better than that which formed the basis of the last ten-year forecast. Energy demand in the median growth scenario is increasing at an annual rate of 1.1 per cent rather than 0.9 per cent for the forecasted period of 2003-2012. The combination of a higher growth rate and a higher starting point results in a 2010 forecast of 168 TWh. It is expected that peak demand will grow faster than in the previous forecast. Summer peak demand averaging an annual growth of 1.3 per cent is forecasted for the period 2003-2012, with winter peak demand averaging a growth of 0.8 per cent. Under normal weather conditions, the electricity system is expected to peak in the summer of 2005 due to the continued demand for cooling load. However, under an extreme weather scenario, the system is already summer peaking. The improved economic outlook and higher starting point resulted in a higher forecast for energy. The electricity system is expected to winter peak during the first years of the forecasted period. The heating load is not expected to experience rapid growth in the next few years. 15 tabs., 14 figs

  2. Bitcoin as digital money: Its growth and future sustainability

    OpenAIRE

    Pradipta Kumar SAHOO

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the comprehensive idea about the growth and future sustainability of bitcoin as a cryptocurrency. The transaction volume of bitcoin is used as the growth of the bitcoin and the bitcoin log return is used for testing the volatility which is helpful for the future sustainability of bitcoin. The study period says that the growth of bitcoin’s transaction volume is an increasing trend as more day to day transaction is minting with the exchange of Bitcoin. The stu...

  3. Physically demanding work, fetal growth and the risk of adverse birth outcomes. The Generation R Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijder, Claudia A.; Brand, Teus; Jaddoe, Vincent; Hofman, Albert; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Steegers, Eric A. P.; Burdorf, Alex

    2012-01-01

    Objectives Work-related risk factors, such as long work hours, and physically demanding work have been suggested to adversely influence pregnancy outcome. The authors aimed to examine associations between various aspects of physically demanding work with fetal growth in different trimesters during

  4. The impact of future energy demand on renewable energy production – Case of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenberg, Eva; Lind, Arne; Espegren, Kari Aamodt

    2013-01-01

    Projections of energy demand are an important part of analyses of policies to promote conservation, efficiency, technology implementation and renewable energy production. The development of energy demand is a key driver of the future energy system. This paper presents long-term projections of the Norwegian energy demand as a two-step methodology of first using activities and intensities to calculate a demand of energy services, and secondly use this as input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway to optimize the Norwegian energy system. Long-term energy demand projections are uncertain and the purpose of this paper is to illustrate the impact of different projections on the energy system. The results of the analyses show that decreased energy demand results in a higher renewable fraction compared to an increased demand, and the renewable energy production increases with increased energy demand. The most profitable solution to cover increased demand is to increase the use of bio energy and to implement energy efficiency measures. To increase the wind power production, an increased renewable target or higher electricity export prices have to be fulfilled, in combination with more electricity export. - Highlights: • Projections to 2050 of Norwegian energy demand services, carriers and technologies. • Energy demand services calculated based on intensities and activities. • Energy carriers and technologies analysed by TIMES-Norway. • High renewable target results in more wind power production and electricity export. • Increased energy efficiency is important for a high renewable fraction

  5. Integrated assessment of future land use in Brazil under increasing demand for bioenergy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verstegen, Judith; van der Hilst, Floortje; Karssenberg, Derek; Faaij, André

    2014-01-01

    Environmental impacts of a future increase in demand for bioenergydepend on the magnitude, location and pattern of the direct and indirectland use change of energy cropland expansion. Here we aim at 1)projecting the spatiotemporal pattern of sugar cane expansion and theeffect on other land uses in

  6. Human capital demand in Brazil: The effects of adjustment cost, economic growth, exports and imports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joilson Dias

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to learn about the effects of the adjustment costs, economic growth, imports and exports on human capital labor demand. The dynamic model proposed by Sargent (1978 was adjusted to consider three types of human capital: (a one with fundamental education (1–8 years of schooling; (b one with secondary education level (9–11 years of education; (c and one with tertiary education level (12 years or more of schooling. Using state level panel data, the dynamic econometrics estimates showed the following results: (i the labor market adjustment costs are very higher; (ii the adjustment cost for the human capital with intermediary education level is the highest one compared to the others; (iii the states’ economic growth favor those with superior education; (iv the imports seems to favor the demand for those with intermediate education levels; (v the degree of openness does show some weak effect on the demand for human capitals with intermediate education. In sum, the growing demand for human capital with some superior education seems to be more associated to its lower adjustment cost and economic growth; the non-significance of real wage elasticity and high adjustment cost seems to indicate that the human capital with intermediate knowledge is in short supply; hence, economic education policy that increases supply of such human capital are in need.

  7. China's refiners face massive overhaul, expansion to meet demand growth, new crude slate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    China's refining industry has embarked on a massive overhaul and expansion to accommodate soaring domestic growth in refined products demand. Currently that growth in demand is being met by increasing imports of refined products, in recent years attaining triple digit growth rates and squeezing direly needed foreign exchange. The focus is on adding refining capacity of about 1.4 million b/d to the current capacity of about 3.2 million b/d by 2000. Priority for increasing capacity is being given to expanding existing refineries and participating in foreign joint venture grassroots refineries along China's booming coastal regions as well as hiking output. A major challenge for China's refineries is that country's reentry into the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), recently signed in Morocco by more than 100 nations. The accompanying reduction of tariffs on imported refined products will make it more difficult for China's marginal refineries to compete in the domestic market. The paper discusses imports and exports, LPG outlook, refining capacity, revamps needed, third party processing, China's first joint venture refinery, industry plans, and GATT challenges

  8. Estimating future dental services' demand and supply: a model for Northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jäger, Ralf; van den Berg, Neeltje; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; Schwendicke, Falk

    2016-04-01

    To plan dental services, a spatial estimation of future demands and supply is required. We aimed at estimating demand and supply in 2030 in Northern Germany based on the expected local socio-demography and oral-health-related morbidity, and the predicted number of dentists and their working time. All analyses were performed on zip-code level. Register data were used to determine the number of retiring dentists and to construct regression models for estimating the number of dentists moving into each zip-code area until 2030. Demand was modelled using projected demography and morbidities. Demand-supply ratios were evaluated and spatial analyses applied. Sensitivity analyses were employed to assess robustness of our findings. Compared with 2011, the population decreased (-7% to -11%) and aged (from mean 46 to 51 years) until 2030. Oral-health-related morbidity changed, leading to more periodontal and fewer prosthetic treatments needs, with the overall demand decreasing in all scenarios (-25% to -33%). In contrast, the overall number of dentists did only limitedly change, resulting in moderate decrease in the supplied service quantities (max. -22%). Thus, the demand-supply ratio increased in all but the worst case scenario, but was unequally distributed between spatial units, with several areas being over- and some being under- or none-serviced in 2030. Within the limitations of the underlying data and the required assumptions, this study expects an increasingly polarized ratio of dental services demand and supply in Northern Germany. Our estimation allows to assess the impact of different influence factors on demand or supply and to specifically identify potential challenges for workforce planning and regulation in different spatial units. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Actual growth and probable future of the worldwide nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bupp, I.C.

    1981-01-01

    Worldwide nuclear-power-reactor manufacturing capacity will exceed worldwide demand by a factor of two or more during the 1980s. Only in France and the Soviet bloc countries is it likely that the ambitious nuclear-power programs formulated in the mid-1970s will be implemented. In all other developed countries and in most developing countries, further delays and cancellations of previously announced programs are all but certain. The stalemate over the future of nuclear power is particularly deep in America. Administrative and personnel problems in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, slow progress on radioactive waste disposal by the Department of Energy, severe financial problems for most electric utilities, and drastic reductions in the rate of electricity demand growth combine to make continuation of the five-year-old moratorium on reactor orders inevitable. Many of the ninety plants under construction may never operate, and some of the seventy in operation may shut down before the end of their economic life. Contrary to widespread belief, further oil price increases may not speed up world-wide reactor sales. It is possible that the world is heading for a worst of all possible outcomes: a large number of small nuclear power programs that do little to meet real energy needs but substantially complicate the problem of nuclear weapons proliferation. 24 references, 4 tables

  10. Regional growth and energy supply: Is there an energy security issue?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roop, J.M.; Freund, K.A.; Godoy-Kain, P.; Gu, A.Y.; Johnson, A.K.; Paananen, O.H.; Woodruff, M.G.

    1996-12-01

    This study examines how the growth of the developing world might affect energy markets in the future. Based on recent growth trends, world energy demand could reasonably be expected to grow from about 350 Exajoules (EJ: 1.0E18=0.95 Quad) to nearly 1025 EJ by the year 2020, nearly 3x current consumption estimates. Introduction of more energy-efficient technologies could reduce this growth by about 17% to 830 EJ. But one cannot rely exclusively on current trends to forecast future energy demand. The growth of the developing world will interact with supply to affect prices, which in turn will mitigate the growth of demand, and growth rates of energy use will be much more modes. Under the Business as Usual scenario, energy demand will grow to 835 EJ by 2020, and this could be reduced a further 15% to 714 EJ through the adoption of more energy efficient technologies. Fuel prices based on model results are analyzed. Energy security implications of rapid growth in the developing world are considered and found to be of likely little significance.

  11. Enabling technologies for demand management: Transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Roderick A.

    2008-01-01

    Rising transport demand is likely to be the biggest hurdle to reducing our greenhouse gas emissions. Globally and nationally, transport is consuming an ever increasing share of our total energy use. Furthermore, the bulk of energy used in transport comes from the burning of petroleum products. This brief paper summarises options arising from the two routes to reduce energy demand in transport: improved and more efficient use of existing and possible new transport modes, and the reduction of transport demand. In both areas, the prospects in the immediate and longer-term future are hedged with difficulties. Automobiles and aircraft have improved considerably in recent decades, but future improvements are likely to be incremental. The introduction of hydrogen as a fuel is appealing, but there are technical problems to be solved. Active reduction of demand for transport will require a decoupling of the link between demand and growth in gross domestic product. Globally, this will be very difficult to achieve. Various modes of public transport exist that are efficient in terms of their energy use per passenger kilometre. But they need large investments to make them more attractive than the automobile. However, population concentration in mega-cities, allied with congestion, will make such innovation essential. Policy measures can be assisted in their implementation by new technology, but will remain politically problematic

  12. U.S. natural gas liquids supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urquhart, W.L.

    1996-01-01

    United States supply and demand situation for natural gas liquids (NGL) was reviewed. The presentation was in four parts: (1) key assumptions for U.S. NGL supply and demand, (2) specific balances for ethane, propane, and butane, (3) some of the key changes now occurring at the customer level, and how these might affect NGLs, and (4) a suggestion of where the future might deviate from projections so severely that projections could be fundamentally wrong. Despite such 'exogenous variables' higher demand projections downstream in the chemical industry were said to be appearing, albeit in scattered fashion. It was estimated that even fractionally higher economic growth could add 3.5 billion pounds to ethylene demand in the USA in the year 2005. 15 figs

  13. Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Röder, Mirjam; Thornley, Patricia; Campbell, Grant; Bows-Larkin, Alice

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Conflicts between adapting to climate change, food security and reducing emissions. • Climate change likely to limit wheat production in the southern hemisphere. • Climate change yield benefits marginally increase emissions per unit of product. • Improved yield will result in higher total production emissions. • Production-based inventories discourage an increase in production. - Abstract: Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions

  14. Future travel demand and its implications for transportation infrastructure investments in the Texas Triangle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-01

    This study takes a megaregion approach to project future travel demand and choice of transport : modes in the Texas Triangle, which is encompassed by four major metropolitan areas, Dallas-Fort : Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin. The model was ...

  15. Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies.

  16. Trends in income and price elasticities of transport demand (1850–2010)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fouquet, Roger

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate trends in income and price elasticities and to offer insights for the future growth in transport use, with particular emphasis on the impact of energy and technological transitions. The results indicate that income and price elasticities of passenger transport demand in the United Kingdom were very large (3.1 and −1.5, respectively) in the mid-nineteenth century, and declined since then. In 2010, long run income and price elasticity of aggregate land transport demand were estimated to be 0.8 and −0.6. These trends suggest that future elasticities related to transport demand in developed economies may decline very gradually and, in developing economies, where elasticities are often larger, they will probably decline more rapidly as the economies develop. Because of the declining trends in elasticities, future energy and technological transitions are not likely to generate the growth rates in energy consumption that occurred following transitions in the nineteenth century. Nevertheless, energy and technological transitions, such as the car and the airplane, appear to have delayed and probably will delay declining trends in income and price elasticity of aggregate transport demand. - Highlights: ► Estimates trends in income and price elasticities of aggregate UK land transport demand (1850–2010). ► Income and price elasticities were very large in late 1800s and declined since then. ► In 2010, they were estimated to be 0.8 and −0.6. ► Future elasticities are likely to decline gradually in developed economies and faster in developing economies. ► Energy transitions may delay the decline in elasticities.

  17. Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2014-05-01

    Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

  18. Resource Limitations, the Demand for Education and Economic Growth--A Macroeconomic View.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stam, Jerome M.

    To develop a theoretical framework for explaining the observed change in demand for human skill and knowledge that occurs with economic growth, a macroeconomic analysis was made of economic variables which are influenced by political, social, and cultural factors. In the three-dimensional framework, total output (Y) of all final goods and services…

  19. Climate change, renewable energy and population impact on future energy demand for Burkina Faso build environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouedraogo, B. I.

    This research addresses the dual challenge faced by Burkina Faso engineers to design sustainable low-energy cost public buildings and domestic dwellings while still providing the required thermal comfort under warmer temperature conditions caused by climate change. It was found base don climate change SRES scenario A2 that predicted mean temperature in Burkina Faso will increase by 2oC between 2010 and 2050. Therefore, in order to maintain a thermally comfortable 25oC inside public buildings, the projected annual energy consumption for cooling load will increase by 15%, 36% and 100% respectively for the period between 2020 to 2039, 2040 to 2059 and 2070 to 2089 when compared to the control case. It has also been found that a 1% increase in population growth will result in a 1.38% and 2.03% increase in carbon emission from primary energy consumption and future electricity consumption respectively. Furthermore, this research has investigated possible solutions for adaptation to the severe climate change and population growth impact on energy demand in Burkina Faso. Shading devices could potentially reduce the cooling load by up to 40%. Computer simulation programming of building energy consumption and a field study has shown that adobe houses have the potential of significantly reducing energy demand for cooling and offer a formidable method for climate change adaptation. Based on the Net Present Cost, hybrid photovoltaic (PV) and Diesel generator energy production configuration is the most cost effective local electricity supply system, for areas without electricity at present, with a payback time of 8 years when compared to diesel generator stand-alone configuration. It is therefore a viable solution to increase electricity access to the majority of the population.

  20. A critical review of IEA's oil demand forecast for China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nel, Willem P.; Cooper, Christopher J.

    2008-01-01

    China has a rapidly growing economy with a rapidly increasing demand for oil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) investigated possible future oil demand scenarios for China in the 2006 World Energy Outlook. The debate on whether oil supplies will be constrained in the near future, because of limited new discoveries, raises the concern that the oil industry may not be able to produce sufficient oil to meet this demand. This paper examines the historical relationship between economic growth and oil consumption in a number of countries. Logistic curve characteristics are observed in the relationship between per capita economic activity and oil consumption. This research has determined that the minimum statistical (lower-bound) annual oil consumption for developed countries is 11 barrels per capita. Despite the increase reported in total energy efficiency, no developed country has been able to reduce oil consumption below this lower limit. Indeed, the IEA projections to 2030 for the OECD countries show no reduction in oil demand on a per capita basis. If this lower limit is applied to China, it is clear that the IEA projections for China are under-estimating the growth in demand for oil. This research has determined that this under-estimation could be as high as 10 million barrels per day by 2025. If proponents of Peak Oil such as Laherrere, Campbell and Deffeyes are correct about the predicted peak in oil production before 2020 then the implications of this reassessment of China's oil demand will have profound implications for mankind

  1. Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Sallaba

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production supply–demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell, hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply

  2. Asian oil demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesharaki, F.

    2005-01-01

    This conference presentation examined global oil market development and the role of Asian demand. It discussed plateau change versus cyclical movement in the global oil market; supply and demand issues of OPEC and non-OPEC oil; if high oil prices reduce demand; and the Asian oil picture in the global context. Asian oil demand has accounted for about 50 per cent of the global incremental oil market growth. The presentation provided data charts in graphical format on global and Asia-Pacific incremental oil demand from 1990-2005; Asia oil demand growth for selected nations; real GDP growth in selected Asian countries; and, Asia-Pacific oil production and net import requirements. It also included charts in petroleum product demand for Asia-Pacific, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Other data charts included key indicators for China's petroleum sector; China crude production and net oil import requirements; China's imports and the share of the Middle East; China's oil exports and imports; China's crude imports by source for 2004; China's imports of main oil products for 2004; India's refining capacity; India's product balance for net-imports and net-exports; and India's trade pattern of oil products. tabs., figs

  3. The forecast of primary energy demand and electricity demand and the participation of coal in covering this demand; Prognoza zapotrzebowania na energie pierwotna i elektryczna oraz udziat wegla w pokryciu tego zapotrzebowania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solinski, J.

    2004-07-01

    The paper presents a preliminary forecast of Poland's future coal demand until 2030, particularly the demand for electric power. Two scenarios are examined - one of average GDP growth rate of 3.5% and a second of 4.5%. Implementation of the first scenario would enable Poland to achieve in 2030 today's levels of per capita electricity consumption in main EU countries, with a forecast consumption level of 280 TWh. By 2030, coal's share in electricity production would fall to about 7%, the remainder being from gas, nuclear and renewable sources. 11 refs., 5 tabs.

  4. Remarks on economic growth and energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, W.

    1979-01-01

    An energy policy according to the principles of decoupling is impossible without an increase in reasonable and profitable power application. It is also impossible without increased nuclear energy. Energy policy according to the principles of decoupling connects the natural growth tendency of a liberally arranged industry with the natural limits of the production factor 'nature'. Energy policy is the very sphere where tomorrow's necessities must be planned today. If in long range, a constant level of energy production struturised different from today's can be assumed, then this is future-bound. For it takes into consideration today tomorrow's necessities. This is the only guarantee we have for our industry to be able to grow tomorrow. On the basis of historical experience, an economic system will believe in the goal of a constant energy supply just as it was believing in abounding in energy up to day. The structure of the growth might change in long term. But accepting the thoughts of decoupling, progress will come. (orig./HP) [de

  5. Estimation of energy storage capacity in power system in japan under future demand and supply factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurihara, Ikuo; Tanaka, Toshikatsu

    1996-01-01

    The desirable capacity of future energy storage facility in power system in Japan is discussed in this paper, putting emphasis on future new electric demand/supply factors such as CO 2 emission problems and social structure change. The two fundamental demand scenarios are considered; one is base case scenario which extrapolates the trend until now and the other is social structure change scenario. The desirable capacity of the energy storage facility is obtained from the result of optimum generation mix which minimizes the yearly expenses of the target year (2030 and 2050). The result shows that the optimum capacity of energy storage facility is about 10 to 15%. The social structure change and demand side energy storage have great influences on the optimum capacity of supply side storage. The former increases storage capacity. The latter reduces it and also contributes to the reduction of generation cost. Suppression of CO 2 emission basically affects to reduce the storage capacity. The load following operation of nuclear plant also reduces the optimum storage capacity in the case it produces surplus energy at night. Though there exist many factors which increase or decrease the capacity of energy storage facility, as a whole, it is concluded that the development of new energy storage technology is necessary for future. (author)

  6. Price freezes, durables and residential electricity demand - Evidence from the Greater Buenos Aires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casarin, Ariel; Delfino, Maria Eugenia

    2010-09-15

    This paper examines the determinants of residential electricity demand in the Greater Buenos Aires between 1997 and 2006. During the second half of this period, residential tariffs remained nominally fixed, while an income boom boosted up the sales of durables. This study differs from previous works in that it explicitly considers the impact of the stock of air-conditioners on residential demand. The paper reports short- and long-run elasticities and examines the contribution of prices and durables to recent demand growth. Simulations illustrate the impact of prices and durables on future demand.

  7. Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian Wu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model for the projection of Chinese vehicle stocks and road vehicle energy demand through 2050 based on low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios. To derive a gross-domestic product (GDP-dependent Gompertz function, Chinese GDP is estimated using a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE model. The Gompertz function is estimated using historical data on vehicle development trends in North America, Pacific Rim and Europe to overcome the problem of insufficient long-running data on Chinese vehicle ownership. Results indicate that the number of projected vehicle stocks for 2050 is 300, 455 and 463 million for low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios respectively. Furthermore, the growth in China’s vehicle stock will increase beyond the inflection point of Gompertz curve by 2020, but will not reach saturation point during the period 2014–2050. Of major road vehicle categories, cars are the largest energy consumers, followed by trucks and buses. Growth in Chinese vehicle demand is primarily determined by per capita GDP. Vehicle saturation levels solely influence the shape of the Gompertz curve and population growth weakly affects vehicle demand. Projected total energy consumption of road vehicles in 2050 is 380, 575 and 586 million tonnes of oil equivalent for each scenario.

  8. Demand for oil and energy in developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolf, C. Jr.; Relles, D.A.; Navarro, J.

    1980-05-01

    How much of the world's oil and energy supply will the non-OPEC less-developed countries (NOLDCs) demand in the next decade. Will their requirements be small and thus fairly insignificant compared with world demand, or large and relatively important. How will world demand be affected by the economic growth of the NOLDCs. In this report, we try to develop some reasonable forecasts of NOLDC energy demands in the next 10 years. Our focus is mainly on the demand for oil, but we also give some attention to the total commercial energy requirements of these countries. We have tried to be explicit about the uncertainties associated with our forecasts, and with the income and price elasticities on which they are based. Finally, we consider the forecasts in terms of their implications for US policies concerning the NOLDCs and suggest areas of future research on NOLDC energy issues.

  9. Supplies should match growing demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmusen, H.J.

    1997-01-01

    The natural gas industry is currently enjoying healthy growth prospects. Not only is the demand for natural gas steadily growing; the outlook for increasing gas reserves is promising as well. The success of natural gas in the marketplace reflects, on one hand, continuous attention paid to public and customer requirements and, on the other hand, the ability of the gas industry to direct technological developments toward the increasing public demand for gas at competitive market prices supplied in a reliable, safe and environmentally friendly manner. In the past, the gas industry has been involved in the development of technologies for everything from gas production to the end user and from borehole to burner tip, and the author believes that the industry must continue or even increase its emphasis on technology in the future in order to capture new market opportunities. He explains this by looking at the supply side, the demand side and the structural side of the business

  10. Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, T.; Wiser, R.; Sandor, D.; Brinkman, G.; Heath, G.; Denholm, P.; Hostick, D.J.; Darghouth, N.; Schlosser, A.; Strzepek, K.

    2012-06-01

    The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

  11. The case for conserving oil resources: the fundamentals of supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, D.B.

    2000-01-01

    This article summarises the evidence for an oil price shock and argues that oil producers, both OPEC and non-OPEC, need to cut back oil production more, in order to conserve oil for the future and to avert sudden extreme movements in oil prices in the next five-to-ten years. Four physical fundamentals determine long-run changes in oil prices: supply, demand, technology and substitutes. We show that supply, technology and substitutes are limited and demand is growing strongly. As demand pushes against supply, prices will rise rapidly. It would be better to conserve oil now, in order to have a smoother transition to higher-priced oil in the future. In addition, oil is such a valuable resource for the worlds economies in general, that we should conserve it for future generations. The world, in its haste for economic growth, should support OPEC conservation efforts. (author)

  12. How to analyze the supply and demand balance to predict future volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willis, K.

    2002-01-01

    The impact of electricity price volatility with a focus on supply and demand is discussed. Factors that influence volatility and the impact of volatility on market participants are also highlighted. It is this author's view that despite initial difficulties and customary inefficiencies (not unusual in a new market), the market performed as might have been expected and government interference in the market was not necessary. As far as market participants are concerned, they must be vigilant at all times because of the millisecond time horizons; an understanding of market volatility and its key drivers are absolutely essential to proper management of risks inherent in the market. An understanding of the relationship between supply and demand and volatility is important. Just as important, or even more so, is an appreciation of the delicate nature of this relationship and the dynamics behind it. Consequently, one must apply the same rigor that is used to analyze supply and demand in the electricity market to other market fundamentals such as the natural gas market, interconnections, generation fuel sources, regulatory actions and market rules. A three-step process, involving a review of history to develop the relationships, supply and demand forecasts and scenario planning, is proposed for use in analyzing supply and demand to predict future volatility. Irrespective of the sophistication of analytical tools, the most important determinant to success in the electricity market is for market players to perceive the earliest signs of a changing market landscape and respond to them with lightning speed

  13. Projection of Chinese motor vehicle growth, oil demand, and CO2 emissions through 2050

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    During this study a methodology was developed to project growth trends of the motor vehicle population and associated oil demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China through 2050. In particular, the numbers of highway vehicles, motorcycles, an...

  14. Study on the hydrogen demand in China based on system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Tao; Ji, Jie; Chen, Ming-qi

    2010-01-01

    Reasonable estimation of hydrogen energy and other renewable energy demand of China's medium and long-term energy is of great significance for China's medium and long-term energy plan. Therefore, based on both China's future economic development and relative economic theory and system dynamics theory, this article analyzes qualitatively the internal factors and external factors of hydrogen energy demand system, and makes the state high and low two assumptions about China's medium and long-term hydrogen demand according to the different speed of China's economic development. After the system dynamic model setting up export and operation, the output shows the data changes of the total hydrogen demand and the four kinds of hydrogen demand. According to the analysis of the output, two conclusions are concluded: The secondary industry, not the tertiary industry (mainly the transportation), should be firstly satisfied by the hydrogen R and D and support of Government policy. Change of Chinese hydrogen demand scale, on basis of its economic growth, can not be effective explained through Chinese economic growth rate, and other influencing factor and mechanism should be probed deeply. (author)

  15. The future supply of and demand for candidate materials for the fabrication of nuclear fuel waste disposal containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grover, L.K.

    1990-01-01

    This report summarizes the findings of a literature survey carried out to assess the future world supply of and demand for titanium, copper and lead. These metals are candidate materials for the fabrication of containers for the immobilization and disposal of Canada's nuclear used-fuel waste for a reference Used-fuel Disposal Centre. Such a facility may begin operation by approximately 2020, and continue for about 40 years. The survey shows that the world has abundant supplies of titanium minerals (mostly in the form of ilmenite), which are expected to last up to at least 2110. However, for copper and lead the balance between supply and demand may warrant increased monitoring beyond the year 2000. A number of factors that can influence future supply and demand are discussed in the report

  16. A Study on stabilization of energy supply and demand using foreign futures market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Won Chul; Lee, Sung Keun [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-02-01

    This study seeks to minimize financial cost related to the price stabilization and the supply and demand stabilization. In order to accomplish this, it derives a theoretical model of supply hedging to minimize fluctuation risk of price and financial cost intended for crude oil and LNG. Through the positive analysis based on this, it analyzes quantitatively the economic effect of utilizing foreign futures market. It shows the decline of average and divergence of supply cost. Despite the economic effect of utilizing a futures market, the degree of utilizing energy futures market of related firms in Korea appeared to be insufficient. To raise the utilization of trading in futures, the followings were suggested. Firstly, cost reduction and sharing relating information can be designed through the joint participation among allied enterprises. Secondly, energy futures transaction center in Korea can be established or trading linkage based on the existing international trading system can be built. Thirdly, it is possible to subsidize related cost by making a loan from trading in futures. Lastly, the participating directly in a futures market at government level can be considered. (author). 61 refs., 57 figs., 22 tabs.

  17. The clinical endocrinology workforce: current status and future projections of supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigersky, Robert A; Fish, Lisa; Hogan, Paul; Stewart, Andrew; Kutler, Stephanie; Ladenson, Paul W; McDermott, Michael; Hupart, Kenneth H

    2014-09-01

    Many changes in health care delivery, health legislation, and the physician workforce that affect the supply and demand for endocrinology services have occurred since the first published workforce study of adult endocrinologists in 2003. The objective of the study was to assess the current adult endocrinology workforce data and provide the first analysis of the pediatric endocrinology workforce and to project the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025. A workforce model was developed from an analysis of proprietary and publicly available databases, consultation with a technical expert panel, and the results of an online survey of board-certified endocrinologists. The Endocrine Society commissioned The Lewin Group to estimate current supply and to project gaps between supply and demand for endocrinologists. A technical expert panel of senior endocrinologists provided context, clinical information, and direction. The following were measured: 1) the current adult and pediatric endocrinology workforce and the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025 and 2) the number of additional entrants into the endocrinology work pool that would be required to close the gap between supply and demand. Currently there is a shortage of approximately 1500 adult and 100 pediatric full-time equivalent endocrinologists. The gap for adult endocrinologists will expand to 2700 without an increase in the number of fellows trained. An increase in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus further expands the demand for adult endocrinologists. The gap can be closed in 5 and 10 years by increasing the number of fellowship positions by 14.4% and 5.5% per year, respectively. The gap between supply and demand for pediatric endocrinologists will close by 2016, and thereafter an excess supply over demand will develop at the current rate of new entrants into the work force. There are insufficient adult endocrinologists to satisfy current and future demand. A number of proactive

  18. Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1. Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hand, M. M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baldwin, S. [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); DeMeo, E. [Renewable Energy Consulting, Chicago, IL (United States); Reilly, J. M. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Mai, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Arent, D. [Joint Inst. for Strategic Energy Analysis, Boulder, CO (United States); Porro, G. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Meshek, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sandor, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2012-06-15

    The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

  19. The energy demand in the Narino Department

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, UPME

    2000-01-01

    In the object of making a first approach of regional energy requirements analysis and the good way of satisfying them, the UPME undertook a global energy study for the Narino Department. In this study (UPME 1999) was carried out an analysis of the energy demand and of the socioeconomic factors that determine it; they were also studied the consumptions and the current energy offer and the alternatives of future evolution, with the purpose of having the basic tools of a departmental energy plan. The present article refers specifically to the analysis of the demand and it seeks to show the readers the complexity and the volume of necessary information to carry out the demand studies. They are multiple factors that determine the energy demand in the Narino Department. The size, growth populations, geographical distribution and cultural characteristic, the border condition, the faulty infrastructure of communications, the agricultural economic structure and the low entrance per capita

  20. Money demand in general equilibrium endogenous growth: Estimating the role of a variable interest elasticity

    OpenAIRE

    Gillman, Max; Otto, Glen

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents and tests a theory of the demand for money that is derived from a general equilibrium, endogenous growth economy, which in effect combines a special case of the shopping time exchange economy with the cash-in-advance framework. The model predicts that both higher inflation and financial innovation - that reduces the cost of credit - induce agents to substitute away from money towards exchange credit. The implied interest elasticity of money demand rises with the inflation r...

  1. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary

  2. Will the supply meet the demand? The future of the natural gas liquids market in the WCSB

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stauft, T.

    2004-01-01

    Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) price influences were reviewed in this presentation, as well as issues concerning North American propane demand and waterborne imports. A review of U.S. propane stocks was provided as well as regional temperature outlooks for 2004-2005. A cracking feedstock parity forecast was presented, as well as United States gross gas plant margins and propane prices to July 2005. Canadian propane inventories and prices were reviewed. A propane supply and demand forecast to 2020 was presented. Alberta's natural gas supply and intra-Alberta oil sand gas demand growth were discussed. Various market uncertainties include higher levels of activity; the potential of petroleum prices falling due to a reduction of geopolitical risk; the possibility of a U.S. recession; and the growth of Alberta's oil sands industry, with resulting demand for natural gas. It was concluded that the NGL market in North America will continue to be balanced, with waterborne imports becoming more critical. It was suggested that inventories are adequate for the expected winter season. It was also suggested that Canadian NGL supplies are expected to decline, and that prices are expected to soften in the spring of 2005, with falling natural gas and crude oil prices. refs., tabs., figs

  3. Energy in China: Coping with increasing demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandklef, Kristina

    2004-11-01

    Sustaining the increasing energy consumption is crucial to future economic growth in China. This report focuses on the current and future situation of energy production and consumption in China and how China is coping with its increasing domestic energy demand. Today, coal is the most important energy resource, followed by oil and hydropower. Most energy resources are located in the inland, whereas the main demand for energy is in the coastal areas, which makes transportation and transmission of energy vital. The industrial sector is the main driver of the energy consumption in China, but the transport sector and the residential sector will increase their share of consumption in China, but the transport sector and the residential sector will increase their share of consumption by 2020. China's energy intensity decreased during the 1990s, but it is still high in a global comparison. China is projected to increase its energy consumption at least two times between 2000 and 2025. The government has an equal focus on energy conservation and to develop the current energy resources. Coal will continue to be the most important fuel, but the demand for oil, hydropower, natural gas and nuclear power will also increase. The main future challenges are transportation of energy resources within China and securing oil supply, both domestic and imports

  4. Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Philip K.

    2010-01-01

    The livestock sector globally is highly dynamic. In developing countries, it is evolving in response to rapidly increasing demand for livestock products. In developed countries, demand for livestock products is stagnating, while many production systems are increasing their efficiency and environmental sustainability. Historical changes in the demand for livestock products have been largely driven by human population growth, income growth and urbanization and the production response in different livestock systems has been associated with science and technology as well as increases in animal numbers. In the future, production will increasingly be affected by competition for natural resources, particularly land and water, competition between food and feed and by the need to operate in a carbon-constrained economy. Developments in breeding, nutrition and animal health will continue to contribute to increasing potential production and further efficiency and genetic gains. Livestock production is likely to be increasingly affected by carbon constraints and environmental and animal welfare legislation. Demand for livestock products in the future could be heavily moderated by socio-economic factors such as human health concerns and changing socio-cultural values. There is considerable uncertainty as to how these factors will play out in different regions of the world in the coming decades. PMID:20713389

  5. Larval developmental rate, metabolic rate and future growth performance in Atlantic salmon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Serrano, Jonathan Vaz; Åberg, Madelene; Gjoen, Hans Magnus

    2009-01-01

    , quantified as time to first feeding, and growth in later stages was demonstrated in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). The observed relationship between future growth and larval developmental rate suggests that sorting larvae by time to first feeding can be a potential tool to optimize feeding strategies...... and growth in commercial rearing of Atlantic salmon. Furthermore, the link between larval standard metabolic rate and developmental rate and future growth is discussed in the present study....

  6. Autonomous efficiency improvement or income elasticity of energy demand: Does it matter?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, Mort; Paltsev, Sergey; Reilly, John

    2008-01-01

    Observations of historical energy consumption, energy prices, and income growth in industrial economies exhibit a trend in improving energy efficiency even when prices are constant or falling. Two alternative explanations of this phenomenon are: a productivity change that uses less energy and a structural change in the economy in response to rising income. It is not possible to distinguish among these from aggregate data, and economic energy models for forecasting emissions simulate one, as an exogenous time trend, or the other, as energy demand elasticity with respect to income, or both processes for projecting energy demand into the future. In this paper, we ask whether and how it matters which process one uses for projecting energy demand and carbon emissions. We compare two versions of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, one using a conventional efficiency time trend approach and the other using an income elasticity approach. We demonstrate that while these two versions yield equivalent projections in the near-term, that they diverge in two important ways: long-run projections and under uncertainty in future productivity growth. We suggest that an income dependent approach may be preferable to the exogenous approach

  7. Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Santos

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for charcoal, however, may lead to increasing impacts on forests, food, and water resources, and may even create additional pressures on the climate system. Here we assess how different charcoal scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP relate to potential biomass supply. For this, we use the energy model TIMER to project the demand for fuelwood and charcoal for different socio-economic pathways for urban and rural populations, globally, and for four tropical regions (Central America, South America, Africa and Indonesia. Second, we assess whether the biomass demands for each scenario can be met with current and projected forest biomass estimated with remote sensing and modeled Net Primary Productivity (NPP using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS. Currently one third of residential energy use is based on traditional bioenergy, including charcoal. Globally, biomass needs by urban households by 2100 under the most sustainable scenario, SSP1, are of 14.4 mi ton biomass for charcoal plus 17.1 mi ton biomass for fuelwood (31.5 mi ton biomass in total. Under SSP3, the least sustainable scenario, we project a need of 205 mi tons biomass for charcoal plus 243.8 mi ton biomass for fuelwood by 2100 (total of 450 mi ton biomass. Africa and South America contribute the most for this biomass demand, however, all areas are able to meet the demand. We find that the future of the charcoal sector is not dire. Charcoal represents a small fraction of the energy requirements, but its biomass demands are disproportionate and in some regions require a large fraction of forest. This could be because of large growing populations moving to urban areas

  8. The dynamics of sectoral electricity demand for a panel of US states: New evidence on the consumption–growth nexus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saunoris, James W.; Sheridan, Brandon J.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we use a panel of the 48 contiguous US states over the period 1970–2009 to examine the dynamics of electricity demand in addressing the four hypotheses set forth in the literature: growth, conservation, neutrality, and feedback. In doing so we provide both short-run and long-run elasticity estimates for electricity demand. Recent developments in nonstationary panel estimation techniques allow for heterogeneity in the coefficients while examining the direction of causality among electricity consumption, electricity prices, and income growth. In addition to the full sample, we also disaggregate the sample into three sectors: commercial, industrial, and residential. The short-run results provide evidence in favor of the growth hypothesis for the aggregate sample, as well as for the industrial sector. For the residential and commercial sectors, the conservation hypothesis is supported. Long-run results favor the conservation hypothesis. To ascertain differences in electricity demand relating to electricity intensity we also examine states based on their efficiency in electricity consumption. Overall, the results yield in favor of the growth hypothesis for low intensity states and conservation hypothesis for high intensity states. - Highlights: • We use dynamic panel techniques to model electricity demand by sector for US states. • The conservation hypothesis is supported in the long run; short-run results are mixed. • The conservation hypothesis is supported in the high-electricity-intensity subsample. • The growth hypothesis is supported in the low-electricity-intensity subsample. • Policies aimed at energy conservation should be long-run in nature

  9. Energy supply and demand in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, E. D.

    1978-01-01

    The author expresses his views on future energy demand on the west coast of the United States and how that energy demand translates into demand for major fuels. He identifies the major uncertainties in determining what future demands may be. The major supply options that are available to meet projected demands and the policy implications that flow from these options are discussed.

  10. A speculation on the debate about the future electricity demand in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Chae Young; Moon, Kee Hwan

    2005-01-01

    Since 1991, Korean government established the Long term Power Development Plan(LPDP) to secure a stable electricity supply. With the introduction of market mechanism into electricity supply sector, that plan has been changed into the Basic Plan of the Electricity supply and demand(BPE), which plays a role as a nonbinding guideline or a reference rather than the implementation plan. The BPE still has its importance as a tool providing market participants with appropriate information of future electricity market. According to the second BPE, released at the end of 2004, electricity demand is projected to grow at 2.5% per annum and reach 416.5TWh in 2017 from 293.6TWh in 2003. Based on the projected demand, power expansion plan provided by utilities has established. In the process of formulating the BPE, there were hot debates on the excess capacity margins for certain period of planning time. Some people, especially from environmental groups maintained that many Koreans were wasteful with electricity so that stronger policy for curbing the electricity consumption should be introduced rather than commissioning of additional power plants. They referred to relatively high number of the electricity intensity of Korea as the grounds of their argument. However, electricity intensity in a region or a country is influenced by various factors and higher intensity does not necessarily mean more wasteful consumption of electricity. We have compared various aspects of electricity demand in Korea with other countries to speculate the argument that electricity consumption in Korea is too high. We have also discussed electricity projection in the BPE

  11. Energy demand projections based on an uncertain dynamic system modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong, S.

    2000-01-01

    Today, China has become the world's second largest pollution source of CO 2 . Owing to coal-based energy consumption, it is estimated that 85--90% of the SO 2 and CO 2 emission of China results from coal use. With high economic growth and increasing environmental concerns, China's energy consumption in the next few decades has become an issue of active concern. Forecasting of energy demand over long periods, however, is getting more complex and uncertain. It is believed that the economic and energy systems are chaotic and nonlinear. Traditional linear system modeling, used mostly in energy demand forecasts, therefore, is not a useful approach. In view of uncertainty and imperfect information about future economic growth and energy development, an uncertain dynamic system model, which has the ability to incorporate and absorb the nature of an uncertain system with imperfect or incomplete information, is developed. Using the model, the forecasting of energy demand in the next 25 years is provided. The model predicts that China's energy demand in 2020 will be about 2,700--3,000 Mtce, coal demand 3,500 Mt, increasing by 128% and 154%, respectively, compared with that of 1995

  12. The role of technology, organisation, and demand in growth and income distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Tommaso Ciarli; Andre' Lorentz; Maria Savona; Marco Valente

    2012-01-01

    The paper proposes a model that explains cross-country growth divergences over time for different aspects of structural change. The model formalises the links between production technology, firm organisation (functional composition of employment) on the supply side and the endogenous evolution of income distribution and consumption patterns on the demand side. Wage distribution is the main channel between the organisation of firms and consumption patterns, and firm selection is the main trigg...

  13. A future Demand Side Management (DSM) opportunity for utility as variable renewable penetrate scale up using agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ines, A.; Bhattacharjee, A.; Modi, V.; Robertson, A. W.; Lall, U.; Kocaman Ayse, S.; Chaudhary, S.; Kumar, A.; Ganapathy, A.; Kumar, A.; Mishra, V.

    2015-12-01

    Energy demand management, also known as demand side management (DSM), is the modification of consumer demand for energy through various methods such as smart metering, incentive based schemes, payments for turning off loads or rescheduling loads. Usually, the goal of demand side management is to encourage the consumer to use less power during periods of peak demand, or to move the time of energy use to off-peak times. Peak demand management does not necessarily decrease total energy consumption, but could be expected to reduce the need for investments in networks and/or power plants for meeting peak demands. Electricity use can vary dramatically on short and medium time frames, and the pricing system may not reflect the instantaneous cost as additional higher-cost that are brought on-line. In addition, the capacity or willingness of electricity consumers to adjust to prices by altering elasticity of demand may be low, particularly over short time frames. In the scenario of Indian grid setup, the retail customers do not follow real-time pricing and it is difficult to incentivize the utility companies for continuing the peak demand supply. A question for the future is how deeper penetration of renewable will be handled? This is a challenging problem since one has to deal with high variability, while managing loss of load probabilities. In the case of managing the peak demand using agriculture, in the future as smart metering matures with automatic turn on/off for a pump, it will become possible to provide an ensured amount of water or energy to the farmer while keeping the grid energized for 24 hours. Supply scenarios will include the possibility of much larger penetration of solar and wind into the grid. While, in absolute terms these sources are small contributors, their role will inevitably grow but DSM using agriculture could help reduce the capital cost. The other option is of advancing or delaying pump operating cycle even by several hours, will still ensure

  14. Provincial panel: addressing emerging energy constraints and new strategies to meet future generation demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarkson, J.

    2006-01-01

    This paper addresses emerging energy constraints and new strategies to meet future generation demand in the Province of Manitoba. The focus is to reduce reliance on energy sources that emit greenhouse gases such as petroleum, natural gas and coal, and increase clean and green electricity. The current plan is to double hydro generation, achieve 1000 MW wind power and utilize bio energy

  15. The extent to which ATP demand controls the glycolytic flux depends strongly on the organism and conditions for growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Købmann, Brian Jensen; Westerhoff, H.V.; Snoep, J.L.

    2002-01-01

    Using molecular genetics we have introduced uncoupled ATPase activity in two different bacterial species, Escherichia coli and Lactococcus lactis, and determined the elasticities of the growth rate and glycolytic flux towards the intracellular [ATP]/[ADP] ratio. During balanced growth in batch...... cultures of E. coli the ATP demand was found to have almost full control on the glycolytic flux (FCC=0.96) and the flux could be stimulated by 70%. In contrast to this, in L. lactis the control by ATP demand on the glycolytic flux was close to zero. However, when we used non-growing cells of L. lactis...... (which have a low glycolytic flux) the ATP demand had a high flux control and the flux could be stimulated more than two fold. We suggest that the extent to which ATP demand controls the glycolytic flux depends on how much excess capacity of glycolysis is present in the cells....

  16. Future supply and demand of certain strategic metal imports in South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dudas, J.S.J.

    1984-01-01

    While South Africa is richly endowed with minerals it is unfortunately almost wholly dependent on external markets for certain metals. Some of the most strategic metals are molybdenum, tungsten, cobalt and aluminium - essential in the steel, petrochemical and defense industries. The objective of this study is to investigate the probable future dependence of South Africa on its four most strategic metal imports. The project covers the uses of the metals locally, historical trends of supply and demand and a forecast of consumption for the next decade. Alternatives and substitutes for the metals as well as the possibility of reclamation after use are also considered. Existing local deposits and their potential economic viability were investigated to establish the possibility of extraction and processing in future years to enable South Africa to decrease it import dependence on these strategic metals

  17. Future role of Gulf oil in world energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eltony, M.N.

    1998-01-01

    The view that there will be a growing dependence on oil from the Gulf countries is shared by a great number of oil market analysts. This view is based on the fact that Gulf countries dominate the global oil reserves. Energy analyst argue that as the world demand for oil continues to grow driven largely by the growth in developing countries' consumption coupled with constrained non-OPEC supply, the end result will be that the call on Gulf oil will grow substantially. In summary, this paper has challenged the view of growing dependence on oil from the Gulf using available information in conjunction with reasonable and fairly plausible arguments. The aim was to point out to the GCC member counties the danger of relying on these views in shaping their economic policies and in setting their oil market strategies. They may run the ultimate risk of being left with huge oil reserves that no one wants. (orig.)

  18. Dietetics supply and demand: 2010-2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooker, Roderick S; Williams, James H; Papneja, Jesleen; Sen, Namrata; Hogan, Paul

    2012-03-01

    The Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, in conjunction with the Commission on Dietetic Registration (CDR), invited The Lewin Group to undertake an analysis of the dietetics workforce. The purpose of the workforce study was to develop a model that can project the supply and demand for both registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs) (collectively referred to as CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners) as the result of various key drivers of change. The research team was asked to quantify key market factors where possible and to project likely paths for the evolution of workforce supply and demand, as well as to assess the implications of the findings. This article drew on the survey research conducted by Readex Research and futurist organizations such as Signature i and Trend Spot Consulting. Furthermore, members of the Dietetics Workforce Demand Task Force were a source of institutional and clinical information relevant to the credentialed dietetics workforce--including their opinions and judgment of the current state of the health care market for dietetic services, its future state, and factors affecting it, which were useful and were integrated with the objective sources of data. The model is flexible and accommodates the variation in how RDs and DTRs function in diverse practice areas. For purposes of this study and model, the dietetics workforce is composed of RDs and DTRs. This report presents the results of this workforce study and the methodology used to calculate the projected dietetics workforce supply and demand. The projections are based on historical trends and estimated future changes. Key findings of the study included the following: • The average age of all CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners in baseline supply (2010) is 44 years; approximately 96% are women. • Approximately 55% of CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners work in clinical dietetics. • The annual growth rate of supply of CDR

  19. Energy supply and demand result in fiscal 1995 and a short-term prospect. Report submitted by the energy supply and demand trend investigation committee; 1995 nendo energy jukyu jisseki to tanki tenbo. Energy jukyu doko chosa iinkai hokoku

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-10-01

    This paper describes the energy demand and supply result in fiscal 1995 and a short-term prospect. The business condition in Japan is regaining some brightness. While the net GDP growth has stayed at 0.9%, the domestic primary energy supply has increased by 2.9% and the final energy consumption by 3.2% over the previous year, respectively. The energy consumption has increased by 3.7% with the background of increase in production levels in the industrial department in material industries induced by external demand. The consumer department showed as high growth as 5.1% centering on household room heating due to cold winter. The business and transportation departments presented an increase of 2.2% and 2.4%, respectively. Sharp growth of 3.0% was shown in the net GDP during January through March, 1996, having the net GDP growth rate for fiscal 1995 escaped from zero growth that has lasted three years. The recovery of the domestic business condition is moving gradually centering on the consumer demand, wherein the point to be focused from now on is how much the recovery can compensate for decline in the public demand and reduction in the external demand. Attention is given on path of the business condition recovery and future trends in energy demand under the situation of risen consumption tax and deregulated oil business. 42 figs., 73 tabs.

  20. Uranium resources and supply - demand to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vance, R.

    2010-01-01

    Recent fluctuations in the market price for uranium have resulted in more activity in this sector over the past few years than in the preceding 20 years. Amidst this background, uranium demand is increasing. Construction of nuclear reactors is proceeding in some countries, ambitious expansion plans have been announced in others and the development of nuclear power programs to meet electricity demand and minimize greenhouse emissions in a cost effective manner is under consideration in many others. This paper reviews projections of nuclear growth and uranium demand and assesses the challenges faced by the uranium mining sector in meeting rising demand. Since the mid-1960 s, an international expert committee (the 'Uranium Group') formed by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency has published biennially comprehensive updates on global uranium resources, production and demand (the 'Red Book'). The most recent in this series, based on 2007 data and published in June 2008, includes a supply/demand projection to 2030. However, much has changed since the data were collected for this projection and an assessment of these changes and their impact on uranium production is included in this presentation. It is concluded that world identified uranium resources (5.45 million t U recoverable at costs up to US$130/kg U, or US$50/lb U 3 O 8 ) are adequate to meet projected future high case nuclear power requirements. However, recent financial market turmoil and lower uranium prices, the opaque nature of the uranium market itself, increased regulatory requirements, a scarcity of the required specialized labour and the fluctuating costs of raw materials makes the process of turning uranium resources in the ground into yellowcake in the can increasingly more challenging, particularly for new entrants. Considerable investment and expertise will be required to bring about the substantial increase in mine production required to meet future demand

  1. Analysis of Current and Future Water Demands in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios Using a Hydro-Economic WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Amin

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Pakistan is currently facing physical and economic water scarcity issues that are further complicated by the rapid increase in its population and by climate change. Many studies have focused on the physical water scarcity using hydrological modeling and the measurement of the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB. However, few studies have concentrated on the importance of the economic water scarcity, that is, the water management issue under the looming impacts of climate change and the population explosion of Pakistan. The purpose of this study is to develop a management strategy which helps to achieve water security and sustainability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB with the help of different socio-economic and climate change scenarios using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning modeling. The streamflow data of five sub-basins (Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, and Astore and the entire Upper Indus Basin (UIB were calibrated (2006–2010 and validated (2011–2014 in the WEAP model. The coefficient of determination and Nash Sutcliffe values for the calibration period ranged from 0.81–0.96. The coefficient of determination and the Nash Sutcliffe values for the validation period ranged from 0.85–0.94. After the development of the WEAP model, the analysis of the unmet water demand and percent coverage of the water demand for the period of 2006–2050 was computed. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth, urbanization, and living standards and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. The results indicated that the future unmet water demand is likely to reach 134 million cubic meters (mcm by the year 2050 and that the external driving factors are putting more pressure on the supply service. This study further explores the importance of proposed dams (likely to be built until 2025 by WAPDA (Water and Power Development

  2. Expanding Regional Airport Usage to Accommodate Increased Air Traffic Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Carl R.

    2009-01-01

    Small regional airports present an underutilized source of capacity in the national air transportation system. This study sought to determine whether a 50 percent increase in national operations could be achieved by limiting demand growth at large hub airports and instead growing traffic levels at the surrounding regional airports. This demand scenario for future air traffic in the United States was generated and used as input to a 24-hour simulation of the national airspace system. Results of the demand generation process and metrics predicting the simulation results are presented, in addition to the actual simulation results. The demand generation process showed that sufficient runway capacity exists at regional airports to offload a significant portion of traffic from hub airports. Predictive metrics forecast a large reduction of delays at most major airports when demand is shifted. The simulation results then show that offloading hub traffic can significantly reduce nationwide delays.

  3. Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Executive Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, T.; Sandor, D.; Wiser, R.; Schneider, T.

    2012-12-01

    The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

  4. Forecasting fluid milk and cheese demands for the next decade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmit, T M; Kaiser, H M

    2006-12-01

    Predictions of future market demands and farm prices for dairy products are important determinants in developing marketing strategies and farm-production planning decisions. The objective of this report was to use current aggregate forecast data, combined with existing econometric models of demand and supply, to forecast retail demands for fluid milk and cheese and the supply and price of farm milk over the next decade. In doing so, we can investigate whether projections of population and consumer food-spending patterns will extend or alter current consumption trends and examine the implications of future generic advertising strategies for dairy products. To conduct the forecast simulations and appropriately allocate the farm milk supply to various uses, we used a partial equilibrium model of the US domestic dairy sector that segmented the industry into retail, wholesale, and farm markets. Model simulation results indicated that declines in retail per capita demand would persist but at a reduced rate from years past and that retail per capita demand for cheese would continue to grow and strengthen over the next decade. These predictions rely on expected changes in the size of populations of various ages, races, and ethnicities and on existing patterns of spending on food at home and away from home. The combined effect of these forecasted changes in demand levels was reflected in annualized growth in the total farm-milk supply that was similar to growth realized during the past few years. Although we expect nominal farm milk prices to increase over the next decade, we expect real prices (relative to assumed growth in feed costs) to remain relatively stable and show no increase until the end of the forecast period. Supplemental industry model simulations also suggested that net losses in producer revenues would result if only nominal levels of generic advertising spending were maintained in forthcoming years. In fact, if real generic advertising expenditures are

  5. News Related to Future GDP Growth as a Risk Factor in Equity Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Vassalou, Maria

    2001-01-01

    A model that includes a factor that captures news related to future Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth along with the market factor can explain the cross-section of equity returns about as well as the Fama-French model can. Furthermore, the Fama-French factors HML and SMB appear to contain mainly news related to future GDP growth. When news related to future GDP growth is present in the asset-pricing model, HML and SMB lose their ability to explain the cross-section.

  6. Uranium 1999. Resources, production and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    In recent years, the world uranium market has been characterised by an imbalance between demand and supply and persistently depressed uranium prices. World uranium production currently satisfies between 55 and 60 per cent of the total reactor-related requirements, while the rest of the demand is met by secondary sources including the conversion of excess defence material and stockpiles, primarily from Eastern Europe. Although the future availability of these secondary sources remains unclear, projected low-cost production capability is expected to satisfy a considerable part of demand through to 2015. Information in this report provides insights into changes expected in uranium supply and demand over the next 15 years. The 'Red Book', jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is the foremost world reference on uranium. It is based on official information from 49 countries and includes compilations of statistics on resources, exploration, production and demand as of 1 January 1999. It provides substantial new information from all of the major uranium producing centres in Africa, Australia, Eastern Europe, North America and the New Independent States. It also contains an international expert analysis of industry statistics and world-wide projections of nuclear energy growth, uranium requirements and uranium supply. (authors)

  7. U.S., Canadian pipelines producers lining up to meet Mexican gas demand growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koen, A.D.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports on prospects for continued strong growth in Mexican demand for natural gas imports that have U.S. and Canadian producers and pipelines queueing up to serve expected demand. In 1991, more than 25 U.S. companies exported a combined 61.7 bcf of gas into Mexico, an increase of more than 390% from 1990's total of 15.7 bcf. According to the Department of Energy Office of Fuels Programs (OFP), about 27.5 bcf of gas left the U.S. for Mexico in fourth quarter 1991 alone, an average 299 MMcfd. DOE has granted short term authorization to more than 65 countries to export gas into Mexico. Another 25 companies have short term export applications pending

  8. Uranium 2009: Resources, Production and Demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    With several countries currently building nuclear power plants and planning the construction of more to meet long-term increases in electricity demand, uranium resources, production and demand remain topics of notable interest. In response to the projected growth in demand for uranium and declining inventories, the uranium industry - the first critical link in the fuel supply chain for nuclear reactors - is boosting production and developing plans for further increases in the near future. Strong market conditions will, however, be necessary to trigger the investments required to meet projected demand. The 'Red Book', jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a recognised world reference on uranium. It is based on information compiled in 40 countries, including those that are major producers and consumers of uranium. This 23. edition provides a comprehensive review of world uranium supply and demand as of 1 January 2009, as well as data on global uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantive new information from major uranium production centres around the world, as well as from countries developing production centres for the first time. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2035 are also featured, along with an analysis of long-term uranium supply and demand issues

  9. The future gas market in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindberg, P.

    1992-01-01

    The views of a major North Sea gas producer on the future development of the European markets for natural gas will be presented by Statoil. The paper focuses on the anticipated growth of the demand for gas in Europe and discuss the main driving forces, such as environmental concerns, gas demand for power generation, diversity of energy supply and the emerging opportunities in Eastern/Central Europe. Further more the views from a supplier and a gas seller observing the possible, future structural changes of the European gas market now subject to discussion and definition in the European Community will be presented. In conclusion, the consequences for Norway as a gas supplier is discussed

  10. Projecting Electricity Demand in 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hostick, Donna J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Belzer, David B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Markel, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kintner-Meyer, Michael C. W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-07-01

    This paper describes the development of end-use electricity projections and load curves that were developed for the Renewable Electricity (RE) Futures Study (hereafter RE Futures), which explored the prospect of higher percentages (30% - 90%) of total electricity generation that could be supplied by renewable sources in the United States. As input to RE Futures, two projections of electricity demand were produced representing reasonable upper and lower bounds of electricity demand out to 2050. The electric sector models used in RE Futures required underlying load profiles, so RE Futures also produced load profile data in two formats: 8760 hourly data for the year 2050 for the GridView model, and in 2-year increments for 17 time slices as input to the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. The process for developing demand projections and load profiles involved three steps: discussion regarding the scenario approach and general assumptions, literature reviews to determine readily available data, and development of the demand curves and load profiles.

  11. Crude oil prices: Robust demands strengthens outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, M.R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper briefly summarizes the growth in the global demand for oil products by showing the historical trends in production and demand in developing countries. It shows world incremental production growth from 1985 to 1995 and developing countries's demands from 1971 to 1989. The paper goes on to make predictions as to whether the demand growth rate can be sustained. It provides information on the status of the world offshore drilling and production facilities to determine the capacity of this resource

  12. 2015 California Demand Response Potential Study - Charting California’s Demand Response Future. Interim Report on Phase 1 Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alstone, Peter; Potter, Jennifer; Piette, Mary Ann; Schwartz, Peter; Berger, Michael A.; Dunn, Laurel N.; Smith, Sarah J.; Sohn, Michael D.; Aghajanzadeh, Arian; Stensson, Sofia; Szinai, Julia

    2016-04-01

    Demand response (DR) is an important resource for keeping the electricity grid stable and efficient; deferring upgrades to generation, transmission, and distribution systems; and providing other customer economic benefits. This study estimates the potential size and cost of the available DR resource for California’s three investor-owned utilities (IOUs), as the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) evaluates how to enhance the role of DR in meeting California’s resource planning needs and operational requirements. As the state forges a clean energy future, the contributions of wind and solar electricity from centralized and distributed generation will fundamentally change the power grid’s operational dynamics. This transition requires careful planning to ensure sufficient capacity is available with the right characteristics – flexibility and fast response – to meet reliability needs. Illustrated is a snapshot of how net load (the difference between demand and intermittent renewables) is expected to shift. Increasing contributions from renewable generation introduces steeper ramps and a shift, into the evening, of the hours that drive capacity needs. These hours of peak capacity need are indicated by the black dots on the plots. Ultimately this study quantifies the ability and the cost of using DR resources to help meet the capacity need at these forecasted critical hours in the state.

  13. Why Electricity Demand Is Highly Income-Elastic in Spain: A Cross-Country Comparison Based on an Index-Decomposition Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julián Pérez-García

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Since 1990, Spain has had one of the highest elasticities of electricity demand in the European Union. We provide an in-depth analysis into the causes of this high elasticity, and we examine how these same causes influence electricity demand in other European countries. To this end, we present an index-decomposition analysis of growth in electricity demand which allows us to identify three key factors in the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP and electricity demand: (i structural change; (ii GDP growth; and (iii intensity of electricity use. Our findings show that the main differences in electricity demand elasticities across countries and time are accounted for by the fast convergence in residential per capita electricity consumption. This convergence has almost concluded, and we expect the Spanish energy demand elasticity to converge to European standards in the near future.

  14. Who will feed China in the 21st century ? income growth and food demand and supply in China

    OpenAIRE

    Fukase, Emiko; Martin, Will

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses resource-based cereal equivalent measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. Although demand for food calories is probably close to its peak level in China, the ongoing dietary shift to animal-based foods, induced by income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. Estimating the relationship between income gro...

  15. Requirements on future energy supply. Analysis on the demand of future power plant capacity and strategy for a sustainable power utilization in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-08-01

    This strategy paper was drawn up with a view to maximum ecological compatibility of pwer plant modernization and sustainable power generation and use. The first part of the paper analyzes the power plants to be decommissioned on a medium-term basis and - against the background of several different scenarios for future power demand - an estimate of power plant capacities required by 2020. The second part describes the goals and concrete requirements of sustainable energy use. In the final part, the available instruments are presented, and those instruments are recommended that will be best suited for making power demand and supply efficient, sustainable and environment-friend.y [de

  16. Research on Future Skill Demands: A Workshop Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilton, Margaret

    2008-01-01

    Over the past five years, business and education groups have issued a series of reports indicating that the skill demands of work are rising, due to rapid technological change and increasing global competition. Researchers have begun to study changing workplace skill demands. Some economists have found that technological change is…

  17. Evaluating rare earth element availability: a case with revolutionary demand from clean technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Elisa; Sherman, Andrew M; Wallington, Timothy J; Everson, Mark P; Field, Frank R; Roth, Richard; Kirchain, Randolph E

    2012-03-20

    The future availability of rare earth elements (REEs) is of concern due to monopolistic supply conditions, environmentally unsustainable mining practices, and rapid demand growth. We present an evaluation of potential future demand scenarios for REEs with a focus on the issue of comining. Many assumptions were made to simplify the analysis, but the scenarios identify some key variables that could affect future rare earth markets and market behavior. Increased use of wind energy and electric vehicles are key elements of a more sustainable future. However, since present technologies for electric vehicles and wind turbines rely heavily on dysprosium (Dy) and neodymium (Nd), in rare-earth magnets, future adoption of these technologies may result in large and disproportionate increases in the demand for these two elements. For this study, upper and lower bound usage projections for REE in these applications were developed to evaluate the state of future REE supply availability. In the absence of efficient reuse and recycling or the development of technologies which use lower amounts of Dy and Nd, following a path consistent with stabilization of atmospheric CO(2) at 450 ppm may lead to an increase of more than 700% and 2600% for Nd and Dy, respectively, over the next 25 years if the present REE needs in automotive and wind applications are representative of future needs.

  18. Future water supply and demand in response to climate change and agricultural expansion in Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K.; Zhou, T.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.

    2016-12-01

    With ongoing global environmental change and an increasing population, it is challenging (to say the least) to understand the complex interactions of irrigation and reservoir systems. Irrigation is critical to agricultural production and food security, and is a vital component of Texas' agricultural economy. Agricultural irrigation currently accounts for about 60% of total water demand in Texas, and recent occurrences of severe droughts has brought attention to the availability and use of water in the future. In this study, we aim to assess future agricultural irrigation water demand, and to estimate how changes in the fraction of crop irrigated land will affect future water availability in Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the United States. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which has been calibrated and validated over major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model, coupling with an irrigation scheme and a reservoir module, is adopted to simulate the water management and regulations. The evolution on agricultural land is also considered in the model as a changing fraction of crop for each grid cell. The reservoir module is calibrated and validated based on the historical (1915-2011) storage records of major reservoirs in Texas. The model is driven by statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The lowest (RCP 2.6) and highest (RC P8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios are adopted for future projections to provide an estimate of uncertainty bounds. We expect that our results will be helpful to assist decision making related to reservoir operations and agricultural water planning for Texas under future climate and environmental changes.

  19. Keynote address: The future of Asian natural gas--The Petronas perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abidin, T.S.A.Z.

    1991-01-01

    In the last several years, the Asian Pacific Region has been experiencing a high rate of economic growth. The prospects for the future would appear to be no less bullish. There is a heightened demand for energy and a greater sense of urgency to change to a cleaner burning fuel. These and other factors indicate a significant increase in demand for natural gas. Fortunately, Malaysian reserves are adequate to meet this demand. PETRONAS is vigorously pursuing actions that will expand its supply capabilities. This expansion along with long-term agreements on pricing and sales with gas purchasers will assure the future role of Asian natural gas in domestic and export markets

  20. Alternative demographic futures and the composition of the demand for labor, by industry and by occupation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serow, W J

    1981-01-01

    An effort is made in this discussion to demonstrate the effects of varying rates of population growth upon the industrial and occupational compositions of demand for labor. The discussion extends previous research activity that has demonstrated that changes in the composition of consumer demand are insensitive to alternative rates of population growth. The discussion begins with a replication of projections of consumer demand patterns under 3 alternative population projections and then transforms these results into projections of final demand by industrial sector, demand for labor by industrial sector, and demand for labor by occupational group. Projections of US household composition patterns are made for the 1980-2020 period. The size and composition of the population and households are derived from US Bureau of the Census Series 1, 2, and 3 projections. From these, projections of size and composition of the labor force are derived utilizing Bureau of Labor Statistics' to 1990. Projections of average earnings per worker, in the aggregate, are taken from Bureau of Economic Analysis projections. The results show that both labor force compositions are relatively insensitive to varying demographic patterns. The industrial composition reflects a continuation of already existing trends, but the occupational composition shows some tendency to move away from professional and highly skilled blue collar occupations and towards service and clerical occupations. The results contain a variety of implications for policy considerations concerning higher education and the proper functioning of the labor market. The relative decline in the number of professional and managerial workers, the groups who are most likely to possess a university degree, suggests that the prospects for conventional higher education might be even less bright than would be suggested by an inspection of trends in the size of the 18-24 year old population. Some mitigation of this possibly adverse trend is

  1. Demands For Solar Electricity From The BRICS Countries In The Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Y.

    2015-12-01

    BRICS countries are presently among the leading the economic powers globally, but their increasing demands for energy and sustainable future requires renewed technical progress on implementation of renewable energy (e.g., solar energy) and a sustainable solution rather than extracting finite natural resources. BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) face both social and environmental pressures as their economy keeps growing. The rapid development of technology in BRICS inevitably altered their culture and behavior, as reflected by education, gender equality, health, and other demographic/socio-economic indicators. These changes coupled with land use/land cover change have altered ecosystem services, as reflected by NEE (Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2) and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). Global climatic changes also drives the demand for sustainable energy. With a focus on solar energy, we analyzed time series of energy consuming behaviors, government policies, and the ecosystem services. Structural equation modeling was applied to confirm the relationships among societal transition, ecosystem services, and climate change. We compared the energy consumption patterns for the five countries and forecasted the changes through 2025. We found that government policies significantly influenced energy consumption behaviors for BRICS and that solar energy usage would continue to increase to 2025 and beyond.

  2. Perspective on electricity demand beyond 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appert, O.

    2000-01-01

    Electricity demand has been the fastest growing form of energy use in the OECD for several decades. Historically there have been strong links between national income (gross domestic product), prices and electricity use. If the trends of the past continue, the annual growth rate of electricity demand to 2020 could reach 2% in the OECD and over 4% in developing countries. Although electricity demand is expected to continue the trend of strong growth in the OECD and also in other regions of the world over the coming decades, there is some question in developed countries of the extent to which electricity demand will be moderated by '' saturation ''. That is, will demand growth level off as electricity completes its penetration into most potential applications and equipment becomes more energy efficient? Will commitments to reduce emissions of conventional airborne pollutants and carbon dioxide increase the cost of electricity generation and slow electricity's demand growth? Or, working in the opposite direction, will new end-uses continue to drive electricity's increasing share of final energy consumption? Will lower prices due to electricity market reform have an impact? This paper explores these issues and provides insights in the likely trends in these areas. (author)

  3. Exploring the undulating plateau: the future of global oil supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Peter M; Smith, Leta K

    2014-01-13

    In this paper, we analyse the factors that will influence long-term oil supply and describe the future form of the global oil supply profile as an 'undulating plateau' rather than an irreversible, short-term peak or an ever upward trend of increasing production. The ultimate transition from a world of relatively plentiful and cheap oil to one of tight supply and high cost will be slow and challenging. An understanding of the signposts for the future path of supply and the drivers of that profile will be critical to managing the transition. The ultimate form of the global supply curve may well be dictated by demand evolution rather than a limited resource endowment in the longer term. Several factors will probably control future global oil supply. We believe that the scale of global oil resource will not constitute a physical supply limit for at least the next two or three decades. However, all categories of oil resources are already more expensive to develop than in the past, requiring high oil prices to stimulate supply growth. Lower rates of oil demand growth relative to economic growth, combined with more challenging supply growth, will probably lead to an undulating plateau sometime after 2040, with demand from non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development states continuing to dominate. Upstream investment requirements and oil price volatility will increase towards and beyond the undulating production plateau. In this new world, high oil prices will induce demand destruction, fuel substitution and ever increasing energy efficiency. As we discuss below, the fundamental differences between the IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates' (IHS CERA) view of the future of oil supply and many peak oil supply models are the timing of the onset of a dramatic slowdown in the rate of growth of supply and the existence or otherwise of a production plateau. We do not dispute that supply will plateau and eventually fall; the question is when, how and at what price

  4. In a changing society which elements and competencies is needed and demanded in the future OT education?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Bodil Winther; Sørensen, Annette

    to plan a curriculum, in order to enable OT graduates to meet employers’ demands in a rapidly changing society •The future OT profession. After 12 years of practising Problem Based Learning (PBL), the Faculty of Occupational Therapy wanted to develop the quality of the OT education offered by Metropolitan...... University College, Copenhagen. The object was to evaluate and develop the pedagogical practice, and to examine if the pedagogical concept prepares the students for the future in the best way possible. To describe the level of education to be achieved in terms of competences and learning outcome, the study...... was inspired by the Tuning Process of educational structures in Europe, which is part of the Bologna process to integrate higher education in Europe. The study is based on literature studies, quantitative and qualitative methods. All of these methods are suitable for uncovering competences demanded by practice...

  5. Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitz, Christoph; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Gerten, Dieter; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Biewald, Anne; Popp, Alexander

    2013-06-01

    An increasing demand for agricultural goods affects the pressure on global water resources over the coming decades. In order to quantify these effects, we have developed a new agroeconomic water scarcity indicator, considering explicitly economic processes in the agricultural system. The indicator is based on the water shadow price generated by an economic land use model linked to a global vegetation-hydrology model. Irrigation efficiency is implemented as a dynamic input depending on the level of economic development. We are able to simulate the heterogeneous distribution of water supply and agricultural water demand for irrigation through the spatially explicit representation of agricultural production. This allows in identifying regional hot spots of blue water scarcity and explicit shadow prices for water. We generate scenarios based on moderate policies regarding future trade liberalization and the control of livestock-based consumption, dependent on different population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections. Results indicate increased water scarcity in the future, especially in South Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa. In general, water shadow prices decrease with increasing liberalization, foremost in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Policies to reduce livestock consumption in developed countries not only lower the domestic pressure on water but also alleviate water scarcity to a large extent in developing countries. It is shown that one of the two policy options would be insufficient for most regions to retain water scarcity in 2045 on levels comparable to 2005.

  6. Is the available cropland and water enough for food demand? A global perspective of the Land-Water-Food nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibarrola-Rivas, M. J.; Granados-Ramírez, R.; Nonhebel, S.

    2017-12-01

    Land and water are essential local resources for food production but are limited. The main drivers of increasing food demand are population growth and dietary changes, which depend on the socioeconomic situation of the population. These two factors affect the availability of local resources: population growth reduces the land and water per person; and adoption of affluent diets increases the demand for land and water per person. This study shows potentials of global food supply by linking food demand drivers with national land and water availability. Whether the available land and water is enough to meet national food demand was calculated for 187 countries. The calculations were performed for the past situation (1960 and 2010) and to assess four future scenarios (2050) to discuss different paths of diets, population numbers and agricultural expansion. Inclusion of the demand perspective in the analysis has shown stronger challenges for future global food supply than have other studies. The results show that with the "business as usual" scenario, 40% of the global population in 2050 will live in countries with not enough land nor water to meet the demands of their population. Restriction to basic diets will be the most effective in lowering both land and water constraints. Our results identify both food production and food demand factors, and the regions that may experience the strongest challenges in 2050.

  7. Inclusive Growth and Market Economies are the Future in MENA ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Inclusive Growth and Market Economies are the Future in MENA ... and economic growth, jobs for youth and the development of the private sector. ... fundamental re-assessment of the role of the state in economic development ," an IDRC official ... Along with continuing to provide support to local partners, IDRC will carry out ...

  8. Industry Demands and Future of Engineering Education in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Rutto

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Engineering Education in Kenya remains the major determinant of country’s economic agenda. However, at the moment the education system offers the industry and society unsatisfactory knowledge and services due to mismatch between the supplied educational talents and the ever changing world of engineering. It is imperative that the Kenyan engineering education be designed to tackle challenges emerging in our societies and industries by providing real tangible practical skills. The government on its part should take its share by supporting and giving direction to institution offering such courses. In order to produce graduates with employable skills, institutions of engineering must aim at quality while ensuring massification of students into programs never happens. This paper is thus designed to show challenges facing quality of engineering education offered in Kenya in relation to the society and industrial needs. The paper also highlights the future demands needed on Kenyan engineering education. The write-up is expected to inspire education designers and curriculum developers in preparing programs that provide for the society and industry.

  9. Future nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosbah, D.S.; Nasreddine, M.

    2006-01-01

    The book includes an introduction then it speaks about the options to secure sources of energy, nuclear power option, nuclear plants to generate energy including light-water reactors (LWR), heavy-water reactors (HWR), advanced gas-cooled reactors (AGR), fast breeder reactors (FBR), development in the manufacture of reactors, fuel, uranium in the world, current status of nuclear power generation, economics of nuclear power, nuclear power and the environment and nuclear power in the Arab world. A conclusion at the end of the book suggests the increasing demand for energy in the industrialized countries and in a number of countries that enjoy special and economic growth such as China and India pushes the world to search for different energy sources to insure the urgent need for current and anticipated demand in the near and long-term future in light of pessimistic and optimistic outlook for energy in the future. This means that states do a scientific and objective analysis of the currently available data for the springboard to future plans to secure the energy required to support economy and welfare insurance.

  10. Electricity demand in Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atakhanova, Zauresh; Howie, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Properties of electricity demand in transition economies have not been sufficiently well researched mostly due to data limitations. However, information on the properties of electricity demand is necessary for policy makers to evaluate effects of price changes on different consumers and obtain demand forecasts for capacity planning. This study estimates Kazakhstan's aggregate demand for electricity as well as electricity demand in the industrial, service, and residential sectors using regional data. Firstly, our results show that price elasticity of demand in all sectors is low. This fact suggests that there is considerable room for price increases necessary to finance generation and distribution system upgrading. Secondly, we find that income elasticity of demand in the aggregate and all sectoral models is less than unity. Of the three sectors, electricity demand in the residential sector has the lowest income elasticity. This result indicates that policy initiatives to secure affordability of electricity consumption to lower income residential consumers may be required. Finally, our forecast shows that electricity demand may grow at either 3% or 5% per year depending on rates of economic growth and government policy regarding price increases and promotion of efficiency. We find that planned supply increases would be sufficient to cover growing demand only if real electricity prices start to increase toward long-run cost-recovery levels and policy measures are implemented to maintain the current high growth of electricity efficiency

  11. Future trends in the supply and demand for radiation oncology physicists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Michael D; Thornewill, Judah; Esterhay, Robert J

    2010-04-12

    Significant controversy surrounds the 2012 / 2014 decision announced by the Trustees of the American Board of Radiology (ABR) in October of 2007. According to the ABR, only medical physicists who are graduates of a Commission on Accreditation of Medical Physics Education Programs, Inc. (CAMPEP) accredited academic or residency program will be admitted for examination in the years 2012 and 2013. Only graduates of a CAMPEP accredited residency program will be admitted for examination beginning in the year 2014. An essential question facing the radiation oncology physics community is an estimation of supply and demand for medical physicists through the year 2020. To that end, a Demand & Supply dynamic model was created using STELLA software. Inputs into the model include: a) projected new cancer incidence and prevalence 1990-2020; b) AAPM member ages and retirement projections 1990-2020; c) number of ABR physics diplomates 1990-2009; d) number of patients per Qualified Medical Physicist from Abt Reports I (1995), II (2002) and III (2008); e) non-CAMPEP physicists trained 1990-2009 and projected through 2014; f) CAMPEP physicists trained 1993-2008 and projected through 2014; and g) working Qualified Medical Physicists in radiation oncology in the United States (1990-2007). The model indicates that the number of qualified medical physicists working in radiation oncology required to meet demand in 2020 will be 150-175 per year. Because there is some elasticity in the workforce, a portion of the work effort might be assumed by practicing medical physicists. However, the minimum number of new radiation oncology physicists (ROPs) required for the health of the profession is estimated to be 125 per year in 2020. The radiation oncology physics community should plan to build residency programs to support these numbers for the future of the profession.

  12. Monitoring urban transport air pollution and energy demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shabbir, Rabia; Ahmad, Sheikh Saeed [Department of Environmental Sciences, Fatima Jinnah Women University, Rawalpindi (Pakistan)

    2010-05-15

    A research associated with urban transportation was carried out in Rawalpindi and Islamabad to analyze the status of emission of air pollutants and energy demands. The study included a discussion of past trends and future scenarios in order to reduce the future emissions. A simple model of passenger transport has been developed using computer based software called Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). The LEAP model was used to estimate total energy demand and the vehicular emissions for the base year 2000 and extrapolated till 2030 for the future predictions. Transport database in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, together with fuel consumption values for the vehicle types and emission factors of NO{sub x}, SO{sub 2} and PM{sub 10} corresponding to the actual vehicle types, formed the basis of the transport demand, energy consumption and total emission calculations. Apart from base scenario, the model was run under three alternative scenarios to study the impact of different urban transport policy initiatives that would reduce energy demand and emissions in transport sector of Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The prime objective was to arrive at an optimal transport policy, which limits the future growth of fuel consumption as well as air pollution. (author)

  13. Hydropower and the world's energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-11-01

    The potential role of hydropower in the context of world-wide demographic growth and increasing demand for energy, and the benefits inherent in hydroelectric power in comparison with other energy options are discussed. Environmental and social impacts, and examples of mitigation measures are reviewed. Recommendations regarding best practices in the future development of hydroelectric power projects proposed

  14. Norwegian residential electricity demand - a microeconomic assessment of the growth from 1976 to 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halvorsen, B.; Larsen, B.M.

    2001-01-01

    The Norwegian residential electricity consumption increased by an average of 3% annually during the period 1976-1993. Political signals indicate that the growth in Norwegian residential energy consumption should be reduced, and that it may be necessary to increase energy taxes. Based on data for the sample of households from the annual consumer expenditure survey, we study factors that are of importance explaining the growth in Norwegian residential electricity demand during this period. Nearly half of the growth is due to an increase in the number of households, while the rest reflects an increase in average consumption per household. The increase in average consumption per household is due to an increasing number of households possessing electric household appliances such as dryers and dishwashers, an increase in real disposable household income and in the floor space of dwellings. (author)

  15. Social Demand of New Generation Information Network: Introduction to High Spectral Density Optical Communication Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamiya, Takeshi; Miyazaki, Tetsuya; Kubota, Fumito

    In this section, first, current situation of traffic growth and penetration of broadband services are described. Then social demand, technical issues, and research trend for future information network in the United States, Europe, and Japan are described. Finally, a detailed construction of this book is introduced.

  16. Proceedings of the Chinese-American symposium on energy markets and the future of energy demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyers, S. (ed.)

    1988-11-01

    The Symposium was organized by the Energy Research Institute of the State Economic Commission of China, and the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory and Johns Hopkins University from the United States. It was held at the Johns Hopkins University Nanjing Center in late June 1988. It was attended by about 15 Chinese and an equal number of US experts on various topics related to energy demand and supply. Each presenter is one of the best observers of the energy situation in their field. A Chinese and US speaker presented papers on each topic. In all, about 30 papers were presented over a period of two and one half days. Each paper was translated into English and Chinese. The Chinese papers provide an excellent overview of the emerging energy demand and supply situation in China and the obstacles the Chinese planners face in managing the expected increase in demand for energy. These are matched by papers that discuss the energy situation in the US and worldwide, and the implications of the changes in the world energy situation on both countries. The papers in Part 1 provide historical background and discuss future directions. The papers in Part 2 focus on the historical development of energy planning and policy in each country and the methodologies and tools used for projecting energy demand and supply. The papers in Part 3 examine the pattern of energy demand, the forces driving demand, and opportunities for energy conservation in each of the major sectors in China and the US. The papers in Part 4 deal with the outlook for global and Pacific region energy markets and the development of the oil and natural gas sector in China.

  17. Transformative optimisation of agricultural land use to meet future food demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lian Pin Koh

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The human population is expected to reach ∼9 billion by 2050. The ensuing demands for water, food and energy would intensify land-use conflicts and exacerbate environmental impacts. Therefore we urgently need to reconcile our growing consumptive needs with environmental protection. Here, we explore the potential of a land-use optimisation strategy to increase global agricultural production on two major groups of crops: cereals and oilseeds. We implemented a spatially-explicit computer simulation model across 173 countries based on the following algorithm: on any cropland, always produce the most productive crop given all other crops currently being produced locally and the site-specific biophysical, economic and technological constraints to production. Globally, this strategy resulted in net increases in annual production of cereal and oilseed crops from 1.9 billion to 2.9 billion tons (46%, and from 427 million to 481 million tons (13%, respectively, without any change in total land area harvested for cereals or oilseeds. This thought experiment demonstrates that, in theory, more optimal use of existing farmlands could help meet future crop demands. In practice there might be cultural, social and institutional barriers that limit the full realisation of this theoretical potential. Nevertheless, these constraints have to be weighed against the consequences of not producing enough food, particularly in regions already facing food shortages.

  18. Future Capacity Procurements Under Unknown Demand and Increasing Costs

    OpenAIRE

    Apostolos Burnetas; Stephen Gilbert

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we study a situation in which a broker must manage the procurement of a short-life-cycle product. As the broker observes demand for the item, she learns about the demand process. However, as is often the case in practice, it becomes either more difficult or more expensive to procure the item as the selling season advances. Thus, the broker must trade off higher procurement costs against the benefit of making ordering decisions with better information about demand. Problems of th...

  19. Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inglesi, Roula

    2010-01-01

    In 2008, South Africa experienced a severe electricity crisis. Domestic and industrial electricity users had to suffer from black outs all over the country. It is argued that partially the reason was the lack of research on energy, locally. However, Eskom argues that the lack of capacity can only be solved by building new power plants. The objective of this study is to specify the variables that explain the electricity demand in South Africa and to forecast electricity demand by creating a model using the Engle-Granger methodology for co-integration and Error Correction models. By producing reliable results, this study will make a significant contribution that will improve the status quo of energy research in South Africa. The findings indicate that there is a long run relationship between electricity consumption and price as well as economic growth/income. The last few years in South Africa, price elasticity was rarely taken into account because of the low and decreasing prices in the past. The short-run dynamics of the system are affected by population growth, too After the energy crisis, Eskom, the national electricity supplier, is in search for substantial funding in order to build new power plants that will help with the envisaged lack of capacity that the company experienced. By using two scenarios for the future of growth, this study shows that the electricity demand will drop substantially due to the price policies agreed - until now - by Eskom and the National Energy Regulator South Africa (NERSA) that will affect the demand for some years. (author)

  20. Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inglesi, Roula [Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, University of Pretoria, Main Campus, Pretoria 0002 (South Africa)

    2010-01-15

    In 2008, South Africa experienced a severe electricity crisis. Domestic and industrial electricity users had to suffer from black outs all over the country. It is argued that partially the reason was the lack of research on energy, locally. However, Eskom argues that the lack of capacity can only be solved by building new power plants. The objective of this study is to specify the variables that explain the electricity demand in South Africa and to forecast electricity demand by creating a model using the Engle-Granger methodology for co-integration and Error Correction models. By producing reliable results, this study will make a significant contribution that will improve the status quo of energy research in South Africa. The findings indicate that there is a long run relationship between electricity consumption and price as well as economic growth/income. The last few years in South Africa, price elasticity was rarely taken into account because of the low and decreasing prices in the past. The short-run dynamics of the system are affected by population growth, too After the energy crisis, Eskom, the national electricity supplier, is in search for substantial funding in order to build new power plants that will help with the envisaged lack of capacity that the company experienced. By using two scenarios for the future of growth, this study shows that the electricity demand will drop substantially due to the price policies agreed - until now - by Eskom and the National Energy Regulator South Africa (NERSA) that will affect the demand for some years. (author)

  1. Balancing needs. Global trends in uranium production and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolet, J.P.; Underhill, D.

    1998-01-01

    In many countries, uranium is a major energy resource, fueling nuclear power plants that collectively generate about 17% of the world's electricity. With global demand for energy especially electricity projected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, the price and availability of all energy sources, including uranium, are key components in the process of energy planning and decision-making. Particularly affecting the uranium market were changing projections about nuclear power's growth and the consequent demand for nuclear fuel; the emergence of a more integrated free market system including former centrally planned economies; and the emergence into the civilian market of uranium released from dismantled nuclear weapons. All these factors contributed to uncertainties in the commercial uranium market that raised questions about future fuel supplies for nuclear power plants. Signs today indicate that the situation is changing. The world uranium market is moving towards a more balanced relationship between supply and demand

  2. Some ideas on the energy demand in the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frot, J.

    2007-01-01

    The author reviews different scenarios to quench the worldwide demand for energy. 4 scenarios have been studied for the 2000-2100 period. The scenarios differ on the importance given to concepts like: -) the behaviour towards future generations, -) the solidarity between rich and poor countries, -) the acknowledgement of the climate change, -) the risk of energy dearth, -) the improvement of energy efficiency, -) the necessity of gross national product growth, -) the public acceptance of nuclear power, and -) CO 2 sequestration. One of the scenarios is extremely courageous: politicians and population are aware of the great problems that are looming and take the right decisions quite early. This scenario leads to a demand of 18 Gtep/year in 2100. In the worst scenario people are reluctant to any change in their way to use energy, this scenario leads to a demand of 49 Gtep/year

  3. An energy supply and demand model for South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silberberg, R.B.

    1981-08-01

    The topic of this thesis is the development of a model of energy supply and demand in South Africa to project energy flows up to the year 2005 and also to assess the implications of policy actions. In this thesis, a method of determining energy flows taking generally accepted economic and technological factors into account is developed. Also, various situations are tested, in order to determine the following: 1) Likely energy flows up to 2005, as well as possible upper and lower bounds. 2) Significant final demand sectors, in terms of energy requirements. 3) The effects of changes in supply and demand sector technology. 4) The implications of policy options such as enengy independence. Owing to the different characteristics of the energy supply and demand sectors, the following techniques were used: 1) Energy demand sectors. 2) Energy supply sectors. 3) Supply/demand equilibration 4) Output. Through successive runs of the model, the policy-maker is able to indentify likely values of energy flows, as well as upper and lower boundaries given the described set of assumptions. The following statements are made as conclusions: 1) The growth rate of domectic coal demand is likely to be 5,5 % per annum up to 2005. 2) The Iron and Steel industry and the Mining industry have the greatest potential effect on coal demand. 3) The coal growth rate stated above implies certain improvements in coal to liquid fuel and electricity conversion. 4) The coal demands of oil energy independence are listed, highlighting the fact that major coal exports and energy independence may be mutually exclusive. Other conclusions regarding capital requirements, oil imports and coking coal utilization are described. The model permits a consistent and inteqrated forecast of national energy flows to be made, providing the policymaker with projections that include the effects of uncertainty with regard to future technologies and economic output. This feature is crucial for policy formulation

  4. Influence of India’s transformation on residential energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The middle income group emerges as the dominant segment by 2030. • Commercial residential energy demand increases 3–4 folds compared to 2010. • Electricity and LPG demand grows above 6% per year in the reference scenario. • India faces the potential of displacing the domination of biomass by 2030. - Abstract: India’s recent macro-economic and structural changes are transforming the economy and bringing significant changes to energy demand behaviour. Life-style and consumption behaviour are evolving rapidly due to accelerated economic growth in recent times. The population structure is changing, thereby offering the country with the potential to reap the population dividend. The country is also urbanising rapidly, and the fast-growing middle class segment of the population is fuelling consumerism by mimicking international life-styles. These changes are likely to have significant implications for energy demand in the future, particularly in the residential sector. Using the end-use approach of demand analysis, this paper analyses how residential energy demand is likely to evolve as a consequence of India’s transformation and finds that by 2030, India’s commercial energy demand in the residential sector can quadruple in the high scenario compared to the demand in 2010. Demand for modern fuels like electricity and liquefied petroleum gas is likely to grow at a faster rate. However, there is a window of opportunity to better manage the evolution of residential demand in India through energy efficiency improvement

  5. Update of energy supply and demand 1983-2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    When a return to economic growth and prosperity occurs there is excellent potential for growth in electrical demand. This electrical growth will mainly come about through increases in total energy usage and through the substitution of electricity for oil, coal and, to a lesser extent, natural gas. The successful introduction of electricity use, either directly or indirectly, into the transportation sector would open up a very large market and make a major contribution to Canada's policy of energy self sufficiency. There are also significant growth areas in the residential and industrial sectors. The major challenge in the next decade will be to maintain a viable Canadian nuclear industry, so as to meet the probable upturn in electrical generating capacity required in the 1990's and beyond and to maintain and improve Canada's share of the nuclear export market. In order to achieve this active support should be given: 1) to building CANDU units in stations primarily devoted to exporting their electrical output to the U.S.A. 2) reactor exports. 3) inititatives to promote increased electrical home heating. 4) electricity substitution in the transportation and industrial fields. Canada has ample uranium resources to cover its own needs and potential exports in the foreseeable future. Because of the great development potential in the CANDU uranium/thorium fuel cycle nuclear energy should be considered as virtually a renewable resource with the best prospects for Canada's long-term energy self sufficiency. Increased productivity, through electric-based process inprovements, and the growth of electric-based high technology industries are both vital to Canada's future economic health. Nuclear produced electricity thus has a vital role to play far into the future

  6. Our energy future is not set in stone. How can the demand for oil and gas in 2035 be met?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charlez, Philippe A.

    2014-01-01

    If technology is an undeniable catalyst for progress, then energy is its inevitable basic food. It is no coincidence that since the industrial revolution, economic growth has been fuelled first by coal, then by oil and gas. Although energy intensity reserves are still sizeable in emerging economies and the technological catalyst can partially dematerialise growth, it is unrealistic to separate growth from its basic food. And, even if the 'fossil energies share' (oil/gas/coal) will lose a few percent to nuclear and renewable energies over the next decades, all the indicators point to a world mix in which the fossil energy share will still top 75% by 2035. Driven by growth in emerging countries, the demand for oil and gas will continue to grow steadily. Even if there are enough oil and gas reserves to see us through the next three decades, will the industry be able to exploit and produce new resources that are increasingly complex to develop at a sufficient rate and which are often located in politically unstable countries? Not to mention the added challenge of the growing numbers of stakeholders who are increasingly insistent on industrial safety, environment and societal issues? In particular, will non-conventional resources, whose production growth could defer the oil and gas peaks by several decades, be able to withstand political and environmental lobbies? The evolution of oil and gas landscape over the past few years reveals a disturbing increase in the time required to develop large new fields and an accelerated decline of the production base due to the ageing of most of the mature-field facilities. This book aims to analyze all the critical factors (technical, political, economic, social and human) that could potentially accelerate or delay the maintenance and redevelopment of mature producing fields as well as the discovery and development of new conventional and unconventional resources. Insofar as in 2035, oil and gas still account for more than half of

  7. Lithium for future technologies. Demand and supply with special regard to electro-mobility; Lithium fuer Zukunftstechnologien. Nachfrage und Angebot unter besonderer Beruecksichtigung der Elektromobilitaet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angerer, Gerhard; Marscheider-Weidemann, Frank; Wendl, Matthias; Wietschel, Martin

    2009-12-15

    The availability of the necessary commodities for electric vehicles with regard to their high market growth predictions is currently a frequent theme of controversial discussions. At this the mineral Lithium, which is used in vehicle batteries, is in the point of interest. An estimation of the worldwide Lithium (Li)-consumption and -supply to the year 2050 was established in this study with the goal of analysing whether significant resource shortages are in fact to be expected. A calculation model was therefore developed, which estimates the future Li-demand using the 2008 consumption of the main Li-consumers such as the glass- und ceramics- industry or lubricants and their respective industry growth rate predictions. As the vehicle battery market can dominate the future Li-demand its development was examined in detail using two market penetration scenarios. Moreover the amount of secondary Lithium which can be recovered through recycling was determined via collection and recycling-quotas. In the, concerning the future number of electric vehicles, moderate Pluralismus-scenario about 51 % of the world Lithium-reserves will be consumed in 2050 under consideration of the employment of recycled material. At this a rather low assumption of the Li-reserves was applied. The gained amount of secondary Lithium covers about 25 % of the total Li-demand which underlines the importance of recycling. In the second scenario which displays a quick and thorough market penetration of electric vehicles the Lithium-reserves are already exhausted in 2045 in spite of the recirculation of secondary-material. The reserves comprise the Li-supplies within the lithosphere which can be recovered under current commodity prices and state-of-the-art technical possibilities. Based on a (USGS, 2009) estimation they amount to 6 Mio. t. Lithium. The resources on the other hand also contain known sources which can't be economically exploited at the moment. They amount to approx. 14 Mio. t

  8. A Future with Hope :China Agriculture Outlook 2007

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    @@ China's macro economy has remained in a good and stable condition overall, experiencing an annual GDP growth of over 10% for several consecutive years. Under this basic condition,the main focus of the Outlook was China's current grain and oil supply, and the demand market with its probable future prices.

  9. Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shunsuke Doi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Accessibility to healthcare service providers, the quantity, and the quality of them are important for national health. In this study, we focused on geographic accessibility to estimate and evaluate future demand and supply of healthcare services. We constructed a simulation model called the patient access area model (PAAM, which simulates patients’ access time to healthcare service institutions using a geographic information system (GIS. Using this model, to evaluate the balance of future healthcare services demand and supply in small areas, we estimated the number of inpatients every five years in each area and compared it with the number of hospital beds within a one-hour drive from each area. In an experiment with the Tokyo metropolitan area as a target area, when we assumed hospital bed availability to be 80%, it was predicted that over 78,000 inpatients would not receive inpatient care in 2030. However, this number would decrease if we lowered the rate of inpatient care by 10% and the average length of the hospital stay. Using this model, recommendations can be made regarding what action should be undertaken and by when to prevent a dramatic increase in healthcare demand. This method can help plan the geographical resource allocation in healthcare services for healthcare policy.

  10. Renewable energy: past trends and future growth in 2 degrees scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crijns-Graus, Wina

    2016-01-01

    This study explores past growth rates of renewable energy sources (1971-2012) and required future ones in 2 degrees scenarios. Results show that in spite of comparatively high growth of renewable energy in the period 2000-2012, the share of renewable energy in total energy use stayed the same (13%).

  11. World energy supply and demand and the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lantzke, U.

    1977-01-01

    The author discusses the OECD's report ''World Energy Outlook'', which concluded that a severe energy gap could, and probably would, develop by the mid-1980s if present energy policies continue. Should nuclear power fail to make a substantial contribution, this situation is predicted to become even worse. The author states that an energy gap can only be realistically avoided by a combination of (a) deep energy conservation, (b) even greater use of coal, and (c) nuclear power. New energy technologies cannot realistically be expected to make a significant contribution much before the end of the century. Conservation and coal alone, however, will not be sufficient. It is difficult to envisage energy savings of more than 10% without reducing economic activity to a degree that becomes politically unacceptable. Greater use of coal is undoubtedly feasible, but the potential is severely constrained in the medium term for economic, technological and environmental reasons. Nuclear power must also make a significant contribution. However, estimates of OECD nuclear energy supply for 1985 have been scaled drastically downwards during 1976 owing to: uncertainty in the utility sector over future growth in electricity demand; continued, and in some cases increased, opposition to nuclear power; and delays and uncertainties in government nuclear policies and programmes. The author concludes that we cannot afford any further shortfall and we must move urgently to: (a) give strong and unswerving support to thermal nuclear reactor programmes (requiring that governments adopt clear and coherent nuclear policies, taking into account the legitimate concern expressed by the public); (b) develop stable and long-term international arrangements so that the necessary nuclear fuel facilities can be made available on a secure basis for peaceful uses of nuclear power; (c) decide what the real proliferation risk is and agree on action to avoid it; and (d) make renewed and stronger efforts to solve

  12. Nuclear separations for radiopharmacy : the need for improved separations to meet future research and clinical demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, A.H.; Rogers, R.D.; Dietz, M.L.

    2000-01-01

    Several recent national and international reports have predicted that the demand for radionuclides used in medicine will increase significantly over the next 20 years. Separation science is an integral part of the production and development of new radionuclides for diagnostic and therapeutic applications and will play a major role in process improvements to existing radiopharmaceuticals to meet increasing demands. The role of separation science in the production of radionuclides for medical applications is briefly discussed, followed by an overview of the manuscripts from the American Chemical Society symposium 'Nuclear Separations for Radiopharmacy'. A listing of the most widely used radionuclides in clinical application and medical research serves as a foundation for the discussion of future research opportunities in separation science

  13. Electricity demand and conservation potential in the Chinese nonmetallic mineral products industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Boqiang; Ouyang, Xiaoling

    2014-01-01

    As the high energy-consuming manufacturing industry, electricity consumption of nonmetallic mineral products in China accounted for 7.93% of industrial, 5.84% of national and 1.33% of global electricity consumption in 2010. This study attempts to specify the determinants of sectoral electricity demand, forecast future electricity consumption by creating a model using the Johansen cointegration methodology and estimate the sectoral electricity conservation potential. Results indicate that GDP per capita is the leading force explaining the sectoral electricity consumption increase, while value-added per worker, R and D intensity and electricity price are the main factors contributing to the sectoral electricity consumption decrease. Results demonstrate that sectoral electricity consumption in 2020 will be 369.79–464.83 billion kWh under the low-growth scenario and 530.14–666.39 billion kWh under the high-growth scenario. Moreover, under the low-growth scenario, the sectoral electricity conservation potential in 2020 will be 33.72–95.03 billion kWh, accounting for 0.45–1.26% of China's total electricity demand in 2020; under the high-growth scenario, the sectoral electricity conservation potential in 2020 will be 48.34–136.24 billion kWh, accounting for 0.26–0.74% of world's total electricity consumption in 2010 respectively. Finally, we provide some policy recommendations for encouraging energy conservation in China's nonmetallic mineral products industry. - Highlights: • A long-term relationship of electricity demand in nonmetallic minerals industry is established. • Determinants of the sectoral electricity consumption are specified. • The sectoral electricity demand and saving potential are analyzed using scenarios analysis. • Electricity saving potential will be 48.34–136.24 billion kWh under the high-growth scenario

  14. The world energy demand in 2006: Confirmed increase in energy consumptions in a context of soaring crude oil prices; but economic growth is twice faster - June, 10 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chateau, Bertrand

    2007-01-01

    Confirmed increase in energy consumptions in a context of soaring crude oil prices; but economic growth is twice faster. According to the latest estimates by Enerdata, The world energy demand growth remains sustained in 2006, but twice slower than the GDP's growth, probably due to high energy prices on the international market. Oil: The oil demand, very captive, confirms once again its low elasticity to prices. 71% of the world oil product demand is concentrated on transport and petro-chemical sectors (77% in Europe, +13 points since 1990; 89% in North America). Gas/Electricity: Gas demand growth in 2006 is driven by Asia and the CIS, obvious price effects in the European Union. The CIS regains its position in the world production growth (22% in 2006 against 13% in 2005 and 33% in 2004). The power generation growth is more and more dominated by China and other Asian countries. The world electricity demand increases in the same proportions as in 2005 and 2004: 4%/year. Coal: Coal accounts for half of the world increase in energy consumption in 2006. China still accounts for 72% of the coal consumption, India for 10%, the rest of Asia 8% the rest of the world 10%. (authors)

  15. Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wadud, Zia; Dey, Himadri S.; Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I.

    2011-01-01

    Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: → Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. → Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. → Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. → Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. → Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

  16. Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wadud, Zia, E-mail: ziawadud@yahoo.com [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh); Dey, Himadri S. [University of Notre Dame (United States); Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I. [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh)

    2011-11-15

    Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: > Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. > Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. > Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. > Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. > Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

  17. The maximum contraceptive prevalence 'demand curve': guiding discussions on programmatic investments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberger, Michelle; Sonneveldt, Emily; Stover, John

    2017-12-22

    Most frameworks for family planning include both access and demand interventions. Understanding how these two are linked and when each should be prioritized is difficult. The maximum contraceptive prevalence 'demand curve' was created based on a relationship between the modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR) and mean ideal number of children to allow for a quantitative assessment of the balance between access and demand interventions. The curve represents the maximum mCPR that is likely to be seen given fertility intentions and related norms and constructs that influence contraceptive use. The gap between a country's mCPR and this maximum is referred to as the 'potential use gap.' This concept can be used by countries to prioritize access investments where the gap is large, and discuss implications for future contraceptive use where the gap is small. It is also used within the FP Goals model to ensure mCPR growth from access interventions does not exceed available demand.

  18. Northeast U.S. update: price and demand issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucy, M.S.

    1997-01-01

    The issues affecting natural gas prices in the northeast United States were discussed. The supply of natural gas is high because of new pipeline projects and new market entrants. The demand for natural gas is also high because of nuclear plant closings, new electric plants, the clean air act, and economic growth. The supply of natural gas is expected to grow in the Northeast by 27 per cent by the year 2000. Future pipeline projects from Western Canada to Chicago, New York and Boston were examined and their effect on supply and pricing were analyzed. As another variable that affects the pricing of natural gas, a list of the nuclear plants that have closed and which may soon close in the northeast United States was provided, along with a list of new gas fired plants. Other factors affecting winter market prices in the northeast United States for 1997-1998 include El Nino, warm weather forecasts, NYMEX forecasts, natural gas demand, and low oil prices, were also reviewed. Cultivating long term comprehensive relationships, and focusing on customer service were considered the key to successful Canadian export growth. 7 tabs., 5 figs

  19. The future of the photovoltaic market (demand side/supply side)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zahedi, A.

    1998-01-01

    At present the main PV application market sectors are communications, leisure, boating, solar home systems, and water pumping. It is predicted that in the future, the largest photovoltaic market segments will be solar home photovoltaic systems, grid-connected small-scale photovoltaic systems, grid-connected medium-to-large scale photovoltaic systems, the communications sector and in the electrification of remote and isolated areas. The main factors favoring photovoltaic technology in remote and isolated areas result from: the high costs of conventional energy sources in remote locations; the loss of a scale-economy effect, which means specific costs of small photovoltaic systems are not much higher than those of larger photovoltaic systems; price of fuel, fuel transportation and spare part supplies. The major factors inhibiting the photovoltaic technology include high initial costs, lack of skilled man power, lack of good quality data and social acceptance. A roof top mounted photovoltaic system is one type of PV system which has attracted lots of interest among the people of north America and Europe. The generation of electricity by this system is attractive because: generation is on-site. This results in reduction of transmission costs and transmission losses; the cost of roofing tiles can be eliminated by using mounted PV systems instead; there is no need for additional land for power generation; visual impacts are limited. The objective of this paper is to review the development of the photovoltaic market in the recent 10 year period and discuss the future markets for this technology with respect to supply and demand

  20. Ad libitum or demand/semi-demand feeding versus scheduled interval feeding for preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Felicia M; Tosh, Karen; McGuire, William

    2010-02-17

    Scheduled interval feeding of prescribed enteral volumes is current standard practice for preterm infants. However, feeding preterm infants in response to their hunger and satiation cues (ad libitum or demand/semi demand) rather than at scheduled intervals might help in the establishment of independent oral feeding, increase nutrient intake and growth rates, and allow earlier hospital discharge. To assess the effect of a policy of feeding preterm infants on an ad libitum or demand/semi-demand basis versus feeding prescribed volumes at scheduled intervals on growth rates and the time to hospital discharge. We used the standard search strategy of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group. This included searches of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, The Cochrane Library, Issue 4, 2009), MEDLINE (1966 to Oct 2009), EMBASE (1980 to Oct 2009), CINAHL (1982 to Oct 2009), conference proceedings, and previous reviews. Randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials (including cluster randomised trials) that compared a policy of feeding preterm infants on an ad libitum or demand/semi-demand basis versus feeding at scheduled intervals. We used the standard methods of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group with separate evaluation of trial quality and data extraction by two review authors. We found eight randomised controlled trials that compared ad libitum or demand/semi-demand regimens with scheduled interval regimes in preterm infants in the transition phase from intragastric tube to oral feeding. The trials were generally small and of variable methodological quality. The duration of the intervention and the duration of data collection and follow-up in most of the trials was not likely to have allowed detection of measurable effects on growth. Three trials reported that feeding preterm infants using an ad libitum or demand/semi-demand feeding regimen allowed earlier discharge from hospital (by about two to four days) but other trials did not confirm this

  1. Conceptual Framework and Computational Research of Hierarchical Residential Household Water Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baodeng Hou

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Although the quantity of household water consumption does not account for a huge proportion of the total water consumption amidst socioeconomic development, there has been a steadily increasing trend due to population growth and improved urbanization standards. As such, mastering the mechanisms of household water demand, scientifically predicting trends of household water demand, and implementing reasonable control measures are key focuses of current urban water management. Based on the categorization and characteristic analysis of household water, this paper used Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs to establish a level and grade theory of household water demand, whereby household water is classified into three levels (rigid water demand, flexible water demand, and luxury water demand and three grades (basic water demand, reasonable water demand, and representational water demand. An in-depth analysis was then carried out on the factors that influence the computation of household water demand, whereby equations for different household water categories were established, and computations for different levels of household water were proposed. Finally, observational experiments on household water consumption were designed, and observation and simulation computations were performed on three typical households in order to verify the scientific outcome and rationality of the computation of household water demand. The research findings contribute to the enhancement and development of prediction theories on water demand, and they are of high theoretical and realistic significance in terms of scientifically predicting future household water demand and fine-tuning the management of urban water resources.

  2. Economic growth and energy demand in Brazil from 1930 to 1980; Crescimento economico e demanda de energia no Brasil de 1930 a 1980

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Theis, I M

    1988-10-01

    There are enough evidences that economic growth and energy demand are closely related indeed. These evidences show that the growth of the economic activity calls for greater energy inputs. The Brazilian case is similar to the other industrialized economies, in spite of our industrialization process being started only in the 1930. Two periods excelled as phases of quick and accelerated growth of the Economic Product: the later fifties and the famous miracle from 1968 to 1973. During those periods the demand for energy in Brazil increased to amounts previously unthinkable. More remarkable, however, is that, after those phases of accelerated growth, Brazilian economy had changed the consumption profile considerably: while, until 1968 firewood was the most important resource, since then petroleum has taken this position. (author). 213 refs, 115 tabs.

  3. The future of radiation oncology in the United States from 2010 to 2020: will supply keep pace with demand?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Benjamin D; Haffty, Bruce G; Wilson, Lynn D; Smith, Grace L; Patel, Akshar N; Buchholz, Thomas A

    2010-12-10

    Prior studies forecasted an incipient shortage of medical oncologists as a result of the aging US population, but the radiation oncology workforce has not been studied. Accordingly, we projected demand for radiation therapy and supply of radiation oncologists in 2010 and 2020 to determine whether a similar shortage may exist for this specialty. Demand for radiation therapy in 2010 and 2020 was estimated by multiplying current radiation utilization rates (as calculated with Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data) by population projections from the Census Bureau. Supply of radiation oncologists was projected using data from the American Board of Radiology inclusive of current radiation oncologists and active residents, accounting for variation in full-time equivalent status and expected survival by age and sex. Between 2010 and 2020, the total number of patients receiving radiation therapy during their initial treatment course is expected to increase by 22%, from 470,000 per year to 575,000 per year. In contrast, assuming that the current graduation rate of 140 residents per year remains constant, the number of full-time equivalent radiation oncologists is expected to increase by only 2%, from 3,943 to 4,022. The size of residency training classes for the years 2014 to 2019 would have to double to 280 residents per year in order for growth in supply of radiation oncologists to equal expected growth in demand. Demand for radiation therapy is expected to grow 10 times faster than supply between 2010 and 2020. Research is needed to explore strategies to enhance capacity to deliver quality radiation therapy despite increased patient loads.

  4. Vaccines 'on demand': science fiction or a future reality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulmer, Jeffrey B; Mansoura, Monique K; Geall, Andrew J

    2015-02-01

    Self-amplifying mRNA vaccines are being developed as a platform technology with potential to be used for a broad range of targets. The synthetic production methods for their manufacture, combined with the modern tools of bioinformatics and synthetic biology, enable these vaccines to be produced rapidly from an electronic gene sequence. Preclinical proof of concept has so far been achieved for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rabies, Ebola, cytomegalovirus, human immunodeficiency virus and malaria. This editorial highlights the key milestones in the discovery and development of self-amplifying mRNA vaccines, and reviews how they might be used as a rapid response platform. The paper points out how future improvements in RNA vector design and non-viral delivery may lead to decreases in effective dose and increases in production capacity. The prospects for non-viral delivery of self-amplifying mRNA vaccines are very promising. Like other types of nucleic acid vaccines, these vaccines have the potential to draw on the positive attributes of live-attenuated vaccines while obviating many potential safety limitations. Hence, this approach could enable the concept of vaccines on demand as a rapid response to a real threat rather than the deployment of strategic stockpiles based on epidemiological predictions for possible threats.

  5. Benefits of Demand-Side Response in Providing Frequency Response Service in the Future GB Power System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teng, Fei, E-mail: fei.teng09@imperial.ac.uk; Aunedi, Marko; Pudjianto, Danny; Strbac, Goran [Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Imperial College London, London (United Kingdom)

    2015-08-18

    The demand for ancillary service is expected to increase significantly in the future Great Britain (GB) electricity system due to high penetration of wind. In particular, the need for frequency response, required to deal with sudden frequency drops following a loss of generator, will increase because of the limited inertia capability of wind plants. This paper quantifies the requirements for primary frequency response and analyses the benefits of frequency response provision from demand-side response (DSR). The results show dramatic changes in frequency response requirements driven by high penetration of wind. Case studies carried out by using an advanced stochastic generation scheduling model suggest that the provision of frequency response from DSR could greatly reduce the system operation cost, wind curtailment, and carbon emissions in the future GB system characterized by high penetration of wind. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that the benefit of DSR shows significant diurnal and seasonal variation, whereas an even more rapid (instant) delivery of frequency response from DSR could provide significant additional value. Our studies also indicate that the competing technologies to DSR, namely battery storage, and more flexible generation could potentially reduce its value by up to 35%, still leaving significant room to deploy DSR as frequency response provider.

  6. Benefits of Demand-Side Response in Providing Frequency Response Service in the Future GB Power System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teng, Fei; Aunedi, Marko; Pudjianto, Danny; Strbac, Goran

    2015-01-01

    The demand for ancillary service is expected to increase significantly in the future Great Britain (GB) electricity system due to high penetration of wind. In particular, the need for frequency response, required to deal with sudden frequency drops following a loss of generator, will increase because of the limited inertia capability of wind plants. This paper quantifies the requirements for primary frequency response and analyses the benefits of frequency response provision from demand-side response (DSR). The results show dramatic changes in frequency response requirements driven by high penetration of wind. Case studies carried out by using an advanced stochastic generation scheduling model suggest that the provision of frequency response from DSR could greatly reduce the system operation cost, wind curtailment, and carbon emissions in the future GB system characterized by high penetration of wind. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that the benefit of DSR shows significant diurnal and seasonal variation, whereas an even more rapid (instant) delivery of frequency response from DSR could provide significant additional value. Our studies also indicate that the competing technologies to DSR, namely battery storage, and more flexible generation could potentially reduce its value by up to 35%, still leaving significant room to deploy DSR as frequency response provider.

  7. Future demands highly integrated solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mangler, Andreas [Rutronik Elektronische Bauelemente GmbH, Ispringen (Germany). Strategic Marketing

    2010-07-01

    The future energy supply with a high number of decentral power plants depends on the use of innovative system technology. It is a precondition for a well-functioning grid and power management over all voltage levels. (orig.)

  8. Voltage Controlled Dynamic Demand Response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhattarai, Bishnu Prasad; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Mahat, Pukar

    2013-01-01

    Future power system is expected to be characterized by increased penetration of intermittent sources. Random and rapid fluctuations in demands together with intermittency in generation impose new challenges for power balancing in the existing system. Conventional techniques of balancing by large...... central or dispersed generations might not be sufficient for future scenario. One of the effective methods to cope with this scenario is to enable demand response. This paper proposes a dynamic voltage regulation based demand response technique to be applied in low voltage (LV) distribution feeders....... An adaptive dynamic model has been developed to determine composite voltage dependency of an aggregated load on feeder level. Following the demand dispatch or control signal, optimum voltage setting at the LV substation is determined based on the voltage dependency of the load. Furthermore, a new technique...

  9. Who cares about a financially healthy electric utility industry. Finding future answers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Connor, R.J.

    1982-01-01

    Forecasts on the rate of growth of electricity supply and demand were given. Emphasis was placed on the economic stability of electric utilities and their ability to raise necessary capital. The role of nuclear power in America's future was also discussed

  10. 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study - Charting California’s Demand Response Future. Final Report on Phase 2 Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alstone, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Potter, Jennifer [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Piette, Mary Ann [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Schwartz, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Berger, Michael A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dunn, Laurel N. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Smith, Sarah J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Aghajanzadeh, Aruab [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Stensson, Sofia [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Szinai, Julie [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Walter, Travis [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McKenzie, Lucy [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Lavin, Luke [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Schneiderman, Brendan [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Mileva, Ana [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Cutter, Eric [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Olson, Arne [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, CA (United States); Bode, Josh [Nexant, Inc., Nashville, TN (United States); Ciccone, Adriana [Nexant, Inc., Nashville, TN (United States); Jain, Ankit [Nexant, Inc., Nashville, TN (United States)

    2017-03-01

    California’s legislative and regulatory goals for renewable energy are changing the power grid’s dynamics. Increased variable generation resource penetration connected to the bulk power system, as well as, distributed energy resources (DERs) connected to the distribution system affect the grid’s reliable operation over many different time scales (e.g., days to hours to minutes to seconds). As the state continues this transition, it will require careful planning to ensure resources with the right characteristics are available to meet changing grid management needs. Demand response (DR) has the potential to provide important resources for keeping the electricity grid stable and efficient, to defer upgrades to generation, transmission and distribution systems, and to deliver customer economic benefits. This study estimates the potential size and cost of future DR resources for California’s three investor-owned utilities (IOUs): Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), Southern California Edison Company (SCE), and San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). Our goal is to provide data-driven insights as the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) evaluates how to enhance DR’s role in meeting California’s resource planning needs and operational requirements. We address two fundamental questions: 1. What cost-competitive DR service types will meet California’s future grid needs as it moves towards clean energy and advanced infrastructure? 2. What is the size and cost of the expected resource base for the DR service types?

  11. The world energy demand in 2007: How high oil prices impact the global energy demand? June 9, 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    How high oil prices impact the global energy demand? The growth of energy demand continued to accelerate in 2007 despite soaring prices, to reach 2,8 % (+ 0,3 point compared to 2006). This evolution results from two diverging trends: a shrink in energy consumption in most of OECD countries, except North America, and a strong increase in emerging countries. Within the OECD, two contrasting trends can be reported, that compensate each other partially: the reduction of energy consumption in Japan (-0.8%) and in Europe (-1.2%), particularly significant in the EU-15 (-1.9%); the increase of energy consumption in North America (+2%). Globally, the OECD overall consumption continued to increase slightly (+0.5%), while electricity increased faster (2,1%) and fuels remained stable. Elsewhere, the strong energy demand growth remained very dynamic (+5% for the total demand, 8% for electricity only), driven by China (+7.3%). The world oil demand increased by 1% only, but the demand has focused even more on captive end usages, transports and petrochemistry. The world gasoline and diesel demand increased by around 5,7% in 2007, and represents 53% of the total oil products demand in 2007 (51% in 2006). If gasoline and diesel consumption remained quasi-stable within OECD countries, the growth has been extremely strong in the emerging countries, despite booming oil prices. There are mainly two factors explaining this evolution where both oil demand and oil prices increased: Weak elasticity-prices to the demand in transport and petrochemistry sectors Disconnection of domestic fuel prices in major emerging countries (China, India, Latin America) compared to world oil market prices Another striking point is that world crude oil and condensate production remained almost stable in 2007, hence the entire demand growth was supported by destocking. During the same period, the OPEC production decreased by 1%, mainly due to the production decrease in Saudi Arabia, that is probably more

  12. Current and Future Opportunities for Wind Power in the Southeast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tinnesand, Heidi; Roberts, Owen; Lantz, Eric

    2016-10-05

    This presentation discusses future wind opportunities in the Southeast including factors such as changes in wind turbine technology, historical innovation trends, and forecast demand growth among regions. The presentation covers the current status of wind in the United States at 80-m hub height and the near-future outlook with a hub height at 110 to 140 meters. Future cost reductions in 2030 and beyond are also explored. Heidi Tinnesand presented this information to a utility advisory group meeting in Charlotte, North Carolina, on October 5, 2016.

  13. The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

  14. Demand Response Potential for California SubLAPs and Local Capacity Planning Areas: An Addendum to the 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study – Phase 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alstone, Peter [Humboldt State Univ., Arcata, CA (United States). Schatz Energy Research Center; Potter, Jennifer [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Piette, Mary Ann [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Schwartz, Peter [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Berger, Michael A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Dunn, Laurel N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Smith, Sarah J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Aghajanzadeh, Arian [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Stensson, Sofia [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Szinai, Julia [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-04-01

    The 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study Phase 2 Report1 was released on March 1, 2017, and described a range of pathways for Demand Response (DR) to support a clean, stable, and cost-effective electric grid for California. One of the Report’s key findings was that while there appears to be very low future value for untargeted DR Shed aimed at system-wide peak load conditions, there could be significant value for locally focused Shed resources. Although the dynamics of renewable capacity expansion have reduced the pressure to build new thermal generation in general, there are still transmission-constrained areas of the state where load growth needs to be managed with the addition of new local capacity, which could include DERs and/or DR. This Addendum to the Phase 2 Report presents a breakdown of the expected future “Local Shed” DR potential at a finer geographic resolution than what is available in the original report, with results summarized by SubLAP and Local Capacity Area (LCA).

  15. Sluggish growth of World energy demand in 2011. Sharp demand decrease in most OECD countries, largely compensated by a healthy Chinese market. Enerdata analyses the trends in energy demand, based on its 2011 data for G20 countries, May 24, 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    Analysis of the energy consumption in 2011 of major countries by Enerdata, based on our global energy database. The energy consumption growth in the G20 slowed down to 2% in 2011, after the strong increase of 2010. The economic crisis is largely responsible for this slow growth. For several years now, the world energy demand is characterized by the bullish Chinese and Indian markets, while developed countries struggle with stagnant economies, high oil prices, resulting in stable or decreasing energy consumption. (authors)

  16. Critical Experience Amidst Bureaucratic Structures: Interdisciplinary Dialogue on Educational Futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Robin; Crawford, Jeffrey

    The public schools of today are pictured as rigid bureaucratic structures, unresponsive to dynamic change, and stultifying to individual initiative and growth. A discussion is presented on the future needs of education that will meet expanding demands for greater freedom for the individual in a democracy to make intelligent decisions. Proposals…

  17. Future demand for electricity in Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibitoye, F.I.; Adenikinju, A.

    2007-01-01

    Availability and reliability of electricity supplies have always been vexed issue in Nigeria. With an estimated population of 130 million people in AD 2005, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and belongs to the group of countries with the lowest electricity consumption per capita in the continent. Nigeria is also ranked among the poorest countries in the world. This paper examines the likely trend in the demand for electricity over the next 25 years under the assumptions that (i) there is a rapid economic development such that Nigeria transforms from low- to middle-income economy during this period, (ii) Nigeria meets the millennium development goals (MDG) in AD 2015, and (iii) the country achieves the status of an industrializing nation. For these to happen, this paper projects that electric-power generation will have to rise from the current capacity of 6500 MW to over 160 GW in AD 2030. This level of supply will be significant enough to increase the per capita electricity consumption to about 5000 kWh per capita by the year 2030. Even then, this just compares with the AD 2003 per capital consumption of some industrializing countries. Analysis of the level of investment required to meet the projected power demand indicates that annual investment cost will rise from US3.8 billion in AD 2006 to a peak of US21 billion in AD 2028. The total investment stream over the 25 year period comes to US262 billion or roughly US10 billion per annum. (author)

  18. Nutritional demands and metabolic characteristics of the DSIR-HA-1179 insect cell line during growth and infection with the Oryctes nudivirus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pushparajan, Charlotte; Claus, Juan Daniel; Marshall, Sean D G; Visnovsky, Gabriel

    2017-12-01

    The DSIR-HA-1179 coleopteran cell line has been identified as a susceptible and permissive host for the in vitro replication of the Oryctes nudivirus, which can be used as a biopesticide against the coconut rhinoceros beetle, pest of palms. The major challenge to in vitro large-scale Oryctes nudivirus production is ensuring process economy. This rests, among other requisites, on the use of low-cost culture media tailored to the nutritional and metabolic needs of the cell line, both in uninfected and infected cultures. The aim of the present study was to characterize the nutritional demands and the metabolic characteristics of the DSIR-HA-1179 cell line during growth and subsequent infection with Oryctes nudivirus in the TC-100 culture medium. Serum-supplementation of the culture medium was found to be critical for cell growth, and addition of 10% fetal bovine serum v/v led to a maximum viable cell density (16.8 × 10 5 cells ml -1 ) with a population doubling time of 4.2 d. Nutritional and metabolic characterization of the cell line revealed a trend of glucose and glutamine consumption but minimal uptake of other amino acids, negligible production of lactate and ammonia, and the accumulation of alanine, both before and after infection. The monitoring of virus production kinetics showed that the TC-100 culture medium was nutritionally sufficient to give a peak yield of 7.38 × 10 7 TCID 50 ml -1 of OrNV at the 6th day post-infection in attached cultures of DSIR-HA-1179 cells in 25 cm 2 T-flasks. Knowledge of the cell line's nutritional demands and virus production kinetics will aid in the formulation of a low-cost culture medium and better process design for large-scale OrNV production in future.

  19. Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glanc, Z.; Kerner, A.

    1997-01-01

    Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs

  20. Natural gas consumption trends and demand projections for Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uqaili, M.A.; Harijan, K.; Memon, H.U.R.

    2005-01-01

    Pakistan is an energy deficient country and heavily depends on imported energy. Natural gas is a dominating source of commercial energy in the country. This paper presents the natural gas consumption trends and future demand projections for Pakistan. The paper also investigates the potential utilization options of natural gas in the country. The study indicates that the natural gas consumption in the country increased rapidly at an average growth rate of about 6.8% per annum during the last three decades. Currently, natural gas contributes about 44.2% of the primary commercial energy supply in the country. Power, Fertilizer, General industry and Domestic sectors are the major consumers of gas in the country. The paper concludes the natural gas demand in the country is projected to increase to about 34-64 MTOE (Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent) by the year 2018. Enhancement in the indigenous exploration and modulation of gas and import of gas from central Asian Sates is essential for meeting the growing gas demand, protecting the environment and increasing the economic independence in the country. (author)

  1. More countries in recession: Oil supply looking for demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    Crude oil prices fell dramatically during the fourth quarter of 1992. Refiners are reevaluating their positions to adjust to low demand growth worldwide. The only bright spot appears to be the United States' emergence from its economic recession. However, Japan and Germany are experiencing their own economic recessions, and crude oil supplies show no sign of tightening. Crude oil futures prices have fallen by more than 15% as of January 8, 1993 compared to October 1, 1992. Although the American Petroleum Institute (API) found increases in oil demand during October and November 1992, the increases are attributed to colder weather and the weak 1991 demand that was used for comparison. This issue identifies current factors at work affecting U.S. refining margins and product values, and offers a first quarter 1993 outlook. All data featured in graphs and text come from the Energy detente Refinery Netback Data Series published in each issue, in which gasoline and diesel No. 2 are Lundberg Survey unbranded racks instead of spot quotations. Margins are apparent deltas only and do not reflect actual profits for any individual operation

  2. Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glanc, Z; Kerner, A [Energy Information Centre, Warsaw (Poland)

    1997-09-01

    Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs.

  3. Modeling of Electric Demand for Sustainable Energy and Management in India Using Spatio-Temporal DMSP-OLS Night-Time Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathy, Bismay Ranjan; Sajjad, Haroon; Elvidge, Christopher D.; Ting, Yu; Pandey, Prem Chandra; Rani, Meenu; Kumar, Pavan

    2018-04-01

    Changes in the pattern of electric power consumption in India have influenced energy utilization processes and socio-economic development to greater extent during the last few decades. Assessment of spatial distribution of electricity consumption is, thus, essential for projecting availability of energy resource and planning its infrastructure. This paper makes an attempt to model the future electricity demand for sustainable energy and its management in India. The nighttime light database provides a good approximation of availability of energy. We utilized defense meteorological satellite program-operational line-scan system (DMSP-OLS) nighttime satellite data, electricity consumption (1993-2013), gross domestic product (GDP) and population growth to construct the model. We also attempted to examine the sensitiveness of electricity consumption to GDP and population growth. The results revealed that the calibrated DMSP and model has provided realistic information on the electric demand with respect to GDP and population, with a better accuracy of r 2 = 0.91. The electric demand was found to be more sensitive to GDP ( r = 0.96) than population growth ( r = 0.76) as envisaged through correlation analysis. Hence, the model proved to be useful tool in predicting electric demand for its sustainable use and management.

  4. Demand Moderation in Military Communication Networks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Blackmore, Perry

    2002-01-01

    .... Demand moderation is the term used to encompass the array of mechanisms aimed at achieving this end. Integrated Defence networks of the future should benefit enormously from demand moderation mechanisms.

  5. Clean coal technology choices relating to the future supply and demand of electricity in Southern Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lennon, S.J.

    1997-01-01

    The finalization of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has catalysed a high degree of debate and interest in the future of coal-fired power generation. Fossil fuel combustion is responsible for a significant percentage of pollutants emitted globally, and coal will continue to play a major role in the energy portfolios of many countries. This is particularly true for developing countries. This fact has resulted in a major focus on technologies which improve the efficiency of coal combustion and conversion to electrical energy, as well as technologies which directly of indirectly reduce overall emissions. The issues around clean coal technologies (CCT) and their evolution, development and uptake in both developed and developing countries are complex. This paper addresses these issues in a Southern African context, viewed from the policy perspective of developing countries and presented in a framework of electricity supply and demand considerations in the region. The principal climate change policy elements proposed for South Africa are presented in the context of the current electricity supply and demand situation in the region. These are presented in the context of Eskom's Integrated Electricity Planning (IEP) process including the environmental considerations inherent in decision-making processes. The potential future of the CCT, barriers to their introduction and potential measures to facilitate their accelerated adoption are discussed. (author). 4 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

  6. Wood supply and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; David B. McKeever

    2011-01-01

    At times in history, there have been concerns that demand for wood (timber) would be greater than the ability to supply it, but that concern has recently dissipated. The wood supply and demand situation has changed because of market transitions, economic downturns, and continued forest growth. This article provides a concise overview of this change as it relates to the...

  7. Energy efficiency, human behavior, and economic growth: Challenges to cutting energy demand to sustainable levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santarius, Tilman

    2015-03-01

    Increasing energy efficiency in households, transportation, industries, and services is an important strategy to reduce energy service demand to levels that allow the steep reduction of greenhouse gases, and a full fledged switch of energy systems to a renewable basis. Yet, technological efficiency improvements may generate so-called rebound effects, which may `eat up' parts of the technical savings potential. This article provides a comprehensive review of existing research on these effects, raises critiques, and points out open questions. It introduces micro-economic rebound effect and suggests extending consumer-side analysis to incorporate potential `psychological rebound effects.' It then discusses meso-economic rebound effects, i.e. producer-side and market-level rebounds, which so far have achieved little attention in the literature. Finally, the article critically reviews evidence for macro-economic rebound effects as energy efficiency-induced economic growth impacts. For all three categories, the article summarizes assessments of their potential quantitative scope, while pointing out remaining methodological weaknesses and open questions. As a rough "rule of thumb", in the long term and on gross average, only half the technical savings potential of across-the-board efficiency improvements may actually be achieved in the real world. Policies that aim at cutting energy service demand to sustainable levels are well advised to take due note of detrimental behavioral and economic growth impacts, and should foster policies and measures that can contain them.

  8. Nuclear sector foresees future role

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    The latest annual symposium of the Uranium Institute (the international association of organizations connected with nuclear energy) covered a broad spectrum of topics. The symposium is reviewed. The position of nuclear power in the USA, Germany, Korea, Hungary and Czechoslovakia was studied. Although future electricity demand was difficult to predict the coupling between economic and electricity consumption growths was expected to continue. In spite of energy conservation and demand-side management, new generations capacity will be needed in the next 20 years. This would include some nuclear generating capacity which would affect the uranium market. The topics covered at the symposium included the greenhouse effect, the uranium market, uranium production, radioactive waste management and public opinion under the influence of changing ethics. (UK)

  9. Future challanges for the maturing Norwegian salmon aquaculture industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asche, Frank; Guttormsen, Atle G.; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we analyze total factor productivity change in the Norwegian salmon aquaculture sector from 1996 to 2008. During this period, the production has on average been growing with 8% per year. At the same time, the price of salmon has stabilized indicating that an increase in demand...... factor to future production growth in the salmon aquaculture industry....

  10. Exploring energy consumption and demand in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, Ying; Xia, Yan

    2012-01-01

    China has been experiencing industrialization and urbanization since reform and opening of its economy in 1978. Energy consumption in the country has featured issues such as a coal-dominated energy mix, low energy efficiency and high emissions. Thus, it is of great importance to explore the factors driving the increase in energy consumption in the past two decades and estimate the potential for decreasing energy demands in the future. In this paper a hybrid energy input–output model is used to decompose driving factors to identify how these factors impact changes in energy intensity. A modified RAS approach is applied to project energy requirements in a BAU scenario and an alternative scenario. The results show that energy input mix, industry structure and technology improvements have major influences on energy demand. Energy demand in China will continue to increase at a rapid rate if the economy develops as in the past decades, and is projected to reach 4.7 billion tce in 2020. However, the huge potential for a decrease cannot be neglected, since growth could be better by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure and enhancing technology improvements. The total energy demand could be less than 4.0 billion tce in 2020. -- Highlights: ► In this paper a hybrid energy input–output model is used to decompose driving factors to China’s energy intensity change. ► A modified RAS approach is applied to project energy requirements in China. ► The results show that energy input mix, industry structure and technology improvements have major influences on energy demand. ► Energy demand in China will reach 4.7 billion ton in 2020 if the economy develops as in the past decades. ► There is a huge potential for a decrease of energy demand by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure and enhancing technology improvements.

  11. Recent rapid increases in the demand for city gas in manufacturing industries and future developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusano, Shigero

    1992-01-01

    City gas companies in Japan are experiencing an expansion in demand for gas in all manufacturing industries. The reason for this is, first and foremost, external, in that the first and second oil crises and the recent Gulf War have placed the oil market in a state of flux. That is to say, supply and demand in the oil products market is unstable while the stability of city gas, which is the main raw material for LNG, is being highly appraised. Another external reason is related to a subject much in the news recently the world over - the environment. City gas is highly regarded for its minimum environmental impact. Domestic reasons for the expansion include the fact that with the increase in use of city gas in manufacturing industries, the end user is beginning to recognize the various special qualities that city gas possesses. The expansion is also due in part to the unrelenting efforts in sales by the gas producers themselves. This report focuses on the expansion in demand in city gas over the past ten years from the point of view of Tokyo Gas as a producer that has been party to the increased sales of city gas in manufacturing industries for over 10 years giving views on the reasons for the increase. Graphic reports of the actual situation of the industry at meetings such as these are rare and therefore although this is slightly different from the main theme, I would like to proceed with the debate in the hope that this will be beneficial in the expansion of future gas demand in countries all over the world

  12. Impact of future price increase on ordering policies for deteriorating items under quadratic demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nita H. Shah

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available When a supplier announces a price increase at a certain time in the future, for each retailer it is important to choose whether to purchase supplementary stock to take benefit of the current lower price or procure at a new price. This article focuses on the possible effects of price increase on a retailer’s replenishment strategy for constant deterioration of items. Here, quadratic demand is debated; which is appropriate for the products for which demand increases initially and subsequently it starts to decrease with the new version of the substitute. We discuss two scenarios in this study: (I when the special order time coincides with the retailer’s replenishment time and (II when the special order time falls during the retailer’s sales period. We determine an optimal ordering policy for each case by maximizing total cost savings between special and regular orders during the depletion time of the special order quantity. Scenarios are established and illustrated with numerical examples. Through, sensitivity analysis important inventory parameters are classified. Graphical results, in two and three dimensions, are exhibited with supervisory decision.

  13. Integrated Modeling of Crop Growth and Water Resource Management to Project Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production and Irrigation Water Supply and Demand in African Nations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, A. L.; Boehlert, B.; Reisenauer, M.; Strzepek, K. M.; Solomon, S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change poses substantial risks to African agriculture. These risks are exacerbated by concurrent risks to water resources, with water demand for irrigation comprising 80 to 90% of water withdrawals across the continent. Process-based crop growth models are able to estimate both crop demand for irrigation water and crop yields, and are therefore well-suited to analyses of climate change impacts at the food-water nexus. Unfortunately, impact assessments based on these models generally focus on either yields or water demand, rarely both. For this work, we coupled a crop model to a water resource management model in order to predict national trends in the impact of climate change on crop production, irrigation water demand, and the availability of water for irrigation across Africa. The crop model FAO AquaCrop-OS was run at 2ox2o resolution for 17 different climate futures from the CMIP5 archive, nine for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and eight for RCP8.5. Percent changes in annual rainfed and irrigated crop production and temporal shifts in monthly irrigation water demand were estimated for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 for maize, sorghum, rice, wheat, cotton, sugarcane, fruits & vegetables, roots & tubers, and legumes & soybeans. AquaCrop was then coupled to a water management model (WEAP) in order to project changes in the ability of seven major river basins (the Congo, Niger, Nile, Senegal, Upper Orange, Volta, and Zambezi) to meet irrigation water demand out to 2050 in both average and dry years in the face of both climate change and irrigation expansion. Spatial and temporal trends were identified and interpreted through the lens of potential risk management strategies. Uncertainty in model estimates is reported and discussed.

  14. Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity. New evidence from Sri Lanka

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Athukorala, P.P.A Wasantha; Wilson, Clevo

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 0.32, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity of 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and (4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages in the country. (author)

  15. Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity. New evidence from Sri Lanka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Athukorala, P.P.A Wasantha; Wilson, Clevo [School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane (Australia)

    2010-09-15

    This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 0.32, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity of 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and (4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages in the country. (author)

  16. The Potential for Snow to Supply Human Water Demand in the Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Singh, Deepti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2015-01-01

    Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of approx. 2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of more than 300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

  17. Option value of electricity demand response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sezgen, Osman; Goldman, C.A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley CA 94720 (United States); Krishnarao, P. [Citigroup Energy Inc., 1301 Fannin St, Houston, TX 77002 (United States)

    2007-02-15

    As electricity markets deregulate and energy tariffs increasingly expose customers to commodity price volatility, it is difficult for energy consumers to assess the economic value of investments in technologies that manage electricity demand in response to changing energy prices. The key uncertainties in evaluating the economics of demand-response technologies are the level and volatility of future wholesale energy prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that financial engineering methodologies originally developed for pricing equity and commodity derivatives (e.g., futures, swaps, options) can be used to estimate the value of demand-response technologies. We adapt models used to value energy options and assets to value three common demand-response strategies: load curtailment, load shifting or displacement, and short-term fuel substitution-specifically, distributed generation. These option models represent an improvement to traditional discounted cash flow methods for assessing the relative merits of demand-side technology investments in restructured electricity markets. (author)

  18. Option value of electricity demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sezgen, Osman; Goldman, C.A.; Krishnarao, P.

    2007-01-01

    As electricity markets deregulate and energy tariffs increasingly expose customers to commodity price volatility, it is difficult for energy consumers to assess the economic value of investments in technologies that manage electricity demand in response to changing energy prices. The key uncertainties in evaluating the economics of demand-response technologies are the level and volatility of future wholesale energy prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that financial engineering methodologies originally developed for pricing equity and commodity derivatives (e.g., futures, swaps, options) can be used to estimate the value of demand-response technologies. We adapt models used to value energy options and assets to value three common demand-response strategies: load curtailment, load shifting or displacement, and short-term fuel substitution-specifically, distributed generation. These option models represent an improvement to traditional discounted cash flow methods for assessing the relative merits of demand-side technology investments in restructured electricity markets. (author)

  19. Energy demands in the 21st century: the role of biofuels in a developing country

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quaye, E.C.

    1996-01-01

    In most developing countries more than 25% of total energy use comes from biofuels. In Ghana, the figure is between 70-80%. Bioenergy is mainly used for cooking and heating, and is also important in rural or cottage industries. As a developing country, Ghana's economic growth remains coupled to the availability and supply of energy. About 29% of this energy is obtained through hydropower and imported petroleum. The two hydropower installations generate about 1102 MW annually mainly for domestic and industrial uses. At the current 3.0% average annual population growth rate, a population of about 35 million is expected by 2025. Coupled with the country's efforts to promote industrialization, future energy demand is expected to increase several fold. This paper provides an overview of Ghana's current energy situation and discusses the role of bioenergy in the future energy demand of the country. The paper concludes with a recommendation for a major shift in energy policy to accommodate the conversion of biofuels into versatile energy carriers in a decentralised system to meet the energy requirements of the people and to provide a basis for rural development and employment. (Author)

  20. A review of China’s approaches toward a sustainable energy future: the period since 1990

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, Xianli; Zhuang, Guiyang; Xiong, Na

    2014-01-01

    policy-making in China, as well as to other developing countries facing similar challenges. This article gives a brief overview and assessment of the Chinese approaches toward ensuring a sustainable future. It starts with a description of the challenges facing China in securing universal, clean......China’s rapid economic growth in the past few decades has been accompanied by huge increases in energy demand. The Chinese energy sector faces the multiple challenges of mobilizing huge investment to keep energy supplies in line with increases in demand, securing international oil and gas supplies...... to meet the widening gap between domestic demand and supply, and reducing environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Identifying China’s approaches toward ensuring a sustainable energy future in the last two decades and assessing their effectiveness can be of great value to the future of energy...

  1. Water availability and demand in West Africa in the 21st century: impacts of climate change and population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisser, Dominik; Oyerinde, Ganiyu; Ibrahim, Moussa; Ibrahim, Boubacar

    2014-05-01

    The countries in West Africa are highly dependent on rainfed agriculture. Changes in the magnitude and timing of precipitation will affect the agricultural output and the economies as a whole. Irrigation is increasingly being considered an important adaptation option to help improve food security of the population that is expected to double in less than 50 years. West Africa is one of the regions where general circulation models (GCM) show the highest disagreements in the direction of future trends of precipitation, making assessments of water availability and the potential for irrigation a difficult task. We use output from a set of dynamically downscaled climate data sets from regional climate modes (RCM) from the CORDEX CMIP5 collection to drive WBMplus, a macroscale hydrological model and simultaneously calculate water demand (livestock, domestic, and irrigation) and availability for a set of land use, and socio economic scenarios around the 2050's for river basins in the ten countries participating in the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) project. Contrary to earlier results from GCMs, the set of RCMs suggest a consistent increase (~5-10%) in annual precipitation for a majority of the land area in West Africa that translates to slight increases in river flow under natural conditions for most river basins and a opportunities for increasing irrigation during the dry season. However, water demand is projected to more than double for livestock and domestic needs as a result of population growth. Demand for irrigation will rise sharply if irrigation is expanded from the current area (representing less than 3% of all croplands in the region), closer to its potential which is multiple times higher than the existing area. The pressures on water resources in the region will therefore be dominated by pressures arising from increased demand rather than changes in the availability of water and can potentially lead to

  2. Determinants of Electricity Demand in Nonmetallic Mineral Products Industry: Evidence from a Comparative Study of Japan and China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Du

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Electricity intensity is an important indicator for measuring production efficiency. A comparative study could offer a new perspective on investigating determinants of electricity demand. The Japanese non-metallic mineral products industry is chosen as the object for comparison considering its representative position in production efficiency. By adopting the cointegration model, this paper examines influencing factors of electricity demand in Japanese and Chinese non-metallic mineral products industries under the same framework. Results indicate that although economic growth and industrial development stages are different between the two countries, major factors that affect the sectoral energy consumption are the same. Specifically, economic growth and industrial activity contribute to the growth of sectoral electricity consumption, while R&D intensity, per capita productivity and electricity price are contributors to the decline of sectoral electricity consumption. Finally, in order to further investigate the development trend of sectoral electricity demand, future electricity consumption and conservation potential are predicted under different scenarios. Electricity demand of the Chinese non-metallic mineral products industry is predicted to be 680.53 TWh (terawatt-hours in 2020 and the sectoral electricity conservation potentials are estimated to be 118.26 TWh and 216.25 TWh under the moderate and advanced electricity-saving scenarios, respectively.

  3. The United States rheumatology workforce: supply and demand, 2005-2025.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deal, Chad L; Hooker, Roderick; Harrington, Timothy; Birnbaum, Neal; Hogan, Paul; Bouchery, Ellen; Klein-Gitelman, Marisa; Barr, Walter

    2007-03-01

    To develop and apply a model that allows prediction of current and future supply and demand for rheumatology services in the US. A supply model was developed using the age and sex distribution of current physicians, retirement and mortality rates, the number of fellowship slots and fill rates, and practice patterns of rheumatologists. A Markov projection model was used to project needs in 5-year increments from 2005 to 2025. The number of rheumatologists for adult patients in the US in 2005 is 4,946. Male and female rheumatologists are equally distributed up to age 44; above age 44, men predominate. The percent of women in adult rheumatology is projected to increase from 30.2% in 2005 to 43.6% in 2025. The mean number of visits per rheumatologist per year is 3,758 for male rheumatologists and 2,800 for female rheumatologists. Assuming rheumatology supply and demand are in equilibrium in 2005, the demand for rheumatologists in 2025 is projected to exceed supply by 2,576 adult and 33 pediatric rheumatologists. The primary factors in the excess demand are an aging population which will increase the number of people with rheumatic disorders, growth in the Gross Domestic Product, and flat rheumatology supply due to fixed numbers entering the workforce and to retirements. The productivity of younger rheumatologists and women, who will make up a greater percentage of the future workforce, may also have important effects on supply. Unknown effects that could influence these projections include technology advances, more efficient practice methods, changes in insurance reimbursements, and shifting lifestyles. Current data suggest that the pediatric rheumatology workforce is experiencing a substantial excess of demand versus supply. Based on assessment of supply and demand under current scenarios, the demand for rheumatologists is expected to exceed supply in the coming decades. Strategies for the profession to adapt to this changing health care landscape include increasing

  4. The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yophy; Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey; Peng, Chieh-Yu

    2011-01-01

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research highlights: → The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. → Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO 2 emission. → The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. → Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. → Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

  5. On energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haefele, W.

    1977-01-01

    Since the energy crisis, a number of energy plans have been proposed, and almost all of these envisage some kind of energy demand adaptations or conservation measures, hoping thus to escape the anticipated problems of energy supply. However, there seems to be no clear explanation of the basis on which our foreseeable future energy problems could be eased. And in fact, a first attempt at a more exact definition of energy demand and its interaction with other objectives, such as economic ones, shows that it is a highly complex concept which we still hardly understand. The article explains in some detail why it is so difficult to understand energy demand

  6. Divers of Passenger Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Wittmer, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    -Overview drivers of passenger demand -Driver 1: Economic growth in developing countries -Driver 2: International business travel in developed countries -Driver 3: International leisure travel in developed countries

  7. Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 2: Renewable Electricity Generation and Storage Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Augustine, C.; Bain, R.; Chapman, J.; Denholm, P.; Drury, E.; Hall, D.G.; Lantz, E.; Margolis, R.; Thresher, R.; Sandor, D.; Bishop, N.A.; Brown, S.R.; Cada, G.F.; Felker, F.

    2012-06-01

    The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

  8. Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

    2016-04-01

    Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing

  9. Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

    2017-01-01

    With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories.

  10. The dynamic model on the impact of biodiesel blend mandate (B5) on Malaysian palm oil domestic demand: A preliminary finding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Applanaidu, Shri-Dewi; Sapiri, Hasimah

    2014-12-01

    Over the last ten years, world biofuels production has increased dramatically. The biodiesel demand is driven by the increases in fossil fuel prices, government policy mandates, income from gross domestic product and population growth. In the European Union, biofuel consumption is mostly driven by blending mandates in both France and Germany. In the case of Malaysia, biodiesel has started to be exported since 2006. The B5 of 5% blend of palm oil based biodiesel into diesel in all government vehicles was implemented in February 2009 and it is expected to be implemented nationwide in the nearest time. How will the blend mandate will project growth in the domestic demand of palm oil in Malaysia? To analyze this issue, a system dynamics model was constructed to evaluate the impact of blend mandate implementation on the palm oil domestic demand influence. The base run of simulation analysis indicates that the trend of domestic demand will increase until 2030 in parallel with the implementation of 5 percent of biodiesel mandate. Finally, this study depicts that system dynamics is a useful tool to gain insight and to experiment with the impact of changes in blend mandate implementation on the future growth of Malaysian palm oil domestic demand sector.

  11. Uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-05-01

    This report covers the period 1983 to 1995. It draws together the industry's latest views on future trends in supply and demand, and sets them in their historical context. It devotes less discussion than its predecessors to the technical influences underpinning the Institute's supply and demand forecasts, and more to the factors which influence the market behaviour of the industry's various participants. As the last decade has clearly shown, these latter influences can easily be overlooked when undue attention is given to physical imbalances between supply and demand. (author)

  12. Developing Demand-Response Based Solutions for Hawaii’s 100% Renewable Energy Target

    OpenAIRE

    Kansal, Rachit

    2017-01-01

    The State of Hawaii has set a target to achieve a 100% Renewables by 2045. Due to the State’s high electricity prices and dependence on imported oil, renewables are seen as an environmental and economic solution to the problem. While the state has seen substantial renewables growth in the last few years, a truly transformative system is needed to push for a fully renewable future. This system would be likely to include Demand Response (DR) capability, Distributed Energy Reso...

  13. Energy efficiency, human behavior, and economic growth: Challenges to cutting energy demand to sustainable levels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santarius, Tilman, E-mail: tilman@santarius.de [Visiting Scholar, Institute of European Studies and Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720-3050 (United States)

    2015-03-30

    Increasing energy efficiency in households, transportation, industries, and services is an important strategy to reduce energy service demand to levels that allow the steep reduction of greenhouse gases, and a full fledged switch of energy systems to a renewable basis. Yet, technological efficiency improvements may generate so-called rebound effects, which may ‘eat up’ parts of the technical savings potential. This article provides a comprehensive review of existing research on these effects, raises critiques, and points out open questions. It introduces micro-economic rebound effect and suggests extending consumer-side analysis to incorporate potential ‘psychological rebound effects.’ It then discusses meso-economic rebound effects, i.e. producer-side and market-level rebounds, which so far have achieved little attention in the literature. Finally, the article critically reviews evidence for macro-economic rebound effects as energy efficiency-induced economic growth impacts. For all three categories, the article summarizes assessments of their potential quantitative scope, while pointing out remaining methodological weaknesses and open questions. As a rough “rule of thumb”, in the long term and on gross average, only half the technical savings potential of across-the-board efficiency improvements may actually be achieved in the real world. Policies that aim at cutting energy service demand to sustainable levels are well advised to take due note of detrimental behavioral and economic growth impacts, and should foster policies and measures that can contain them.

  14. Demand outlook : back to the 1990s or a new paradigm?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diwan, R.

    2002-01-01

    Economic growth in Asia will be much lower in the next five years compared to what it was in the first two thirds of the last decade. There are many structural reasons for this turn of events, but slower economic growth will play an important role on oil demand. Structural economic problems will slow demand in Asia, structurally reducing global demand growth in the next 3 to 5 years. The four trends that will impact oil supply levels include: (1) impact of new technologies, (2) impact of price cycle in mature areas, (3) solutions to geopolitical problems, and (4) increase in OPEC capacity. In the next 5 to 7 years oil demand in Asia will be lower than during the 1990 and 1997 period, when Pacific Basin demand growth averaged 5.5 per cent, or nearly 0.9 million barrels per day on an annual average. A new set of dynamics in the crude oil market will be created as a result of these changes. Prices and flows will be destabilized. The lower demand for oil in Asia will have major consequences for global demand, prices and OPEC strategy. The opening of the upstream sector in most OPEC countries will result in faster growth in production capacity. 13 figs

  15. U. S. Energy and Economic Growth, 1975--2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, E. L.; Cooper, C. L.; Edmonds, F. C.; Edmonds, J. A.; Reister, D. B.; Weinberg, A. M.; Whittle, C. E.; Zelby, L. W.

    1976-09-01

    This study projects economic growth (GNP) and energy demand for the U.S. to the year 2010. The main finding is that both GNP and total energy demand are likely to grow significantly more slowly than has been assumed in most analyses of energy policy. Projections of energy, GNP, and electricity (total and per capita) are summarized, with electricity demand expected to grow more rapidly than total energy demand. Two scenarios designated ''high'' and ''low'' were developed in this study. However, even the ''high'' scenario, 126 quads (q; 1 q equals 10/sup 15/ Btu) in 2000, is much lower than most previous estimates. It is felt that this raises serious questions about fundamental energy and energy R and D policies which, generally, have been based on perceptions of more lavish energy futures. Although the aggregate demands and GNP are projected to increase rather modestly, the energy demands per capita and GNP per capita increase at rates comparable to or even higher than historic rates. The authors believe that the projections developed in this study represent a logical culmination of many trends toward lower growth. These trends have not yet been factored into the older energy projections upon which so much energy policy is based.

  16. Balancing natural gas policy : Fueling the demands of a growing economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, R.

    2003-01-01

    In March 2002 a request was made to the National Petroleum Council by the United States Secretary of Energy to examine the potential implications of new supplies, technologies, perceptions of risk on natural gas demand, supplies, and delivery through 2025. In addition, the Secretary was looking for insight on energy market dynamics and an outlook on the longer-term sustainability of natural gas supplies. Ideas on ways to improve the productivity and efficiency of North American natural gas markets while ensuring adequate and reliable supplies of energy for consumers were also requested. Two options were examined by the National Petroleum Council (NPC). The reactive path involves public policies which remain in conflict, while the balanced future involves aligned public policies. It was discovered that 75 per cent of long-term American gas needs will be met by traditional North American producing areas which will be unable to meet projected demand. Production growth is desirable in the Rockies and deepwater Gulf of Mexico, as well as non conventional production. After careful examination, it was determined that demand flexibility and efficiency must be improved, along with an increase in supply diversity. Infrastructure must be enhanced and sustained, and efficient markets must be promoted. All these measures would result in higher economic growth, higher employment, and stronger industrial activity. figs

  17. Rapid growth, maturity, current problems, future prospects of NAA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guinn, V.P.

    2000-01-01

    The early rapid growth, the attainment of maturity, current problems, and future prospects of NAA (neutron activation analysis) are discussed, each in reasonable detail. In particular, the nature and causes of its current problems are examined, and suggestions are presented for the solution of these problems. The author believes that vigorous action in suggested areas of concentration can reinvigorate the status of NAA as an important method of elemental analysis. (author)

  18. The Current Utilization and Future Demand of Radiopharmaceutical and Radioisotopes in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibrahim Ijang; Zakaria Ibrahim; Bohari Yaacob

    2013-01-01

    Radioisotope and pharmaceutical kits play an important role in nuclear medicine for non-invasive diagnosis and treatment of various cancers and cardiovascular disease. Our aim was to survey the current utilization and future demand of radiopharmaceuticals and radioisotopes in Malaysia. The survey methodology technique was done using questionnaire administration modes. The survey was done for four month duration from government hospitals that have nuclear medicine department. The most frequent pharmaceutical kits used in hospitals were Methylene Diphosphonic acid (MDP) for bone imaging and Diethylene Triamine Pantacetic acid (DTPA). Similarly radioisotopes widely used were Tc-99m and Iodine 131.Therefore if produced of Tc-99m by Nuclear Malaysia can improved in term of high quality products, Nuclear Malaysia could be the sole supplier of this product to hospitals in Malaysia. Similarly pharmaceutical kits especially MDP and DTPA, Nuclear Malaysia has the expertise and knowledge to supply these kits to the hospital. (author)

  19. Modeling of Electric Demand for Sustainable Energy and Management in India Using Spatio-Temporal DMSP-OLS Night-Time Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathy, Bismay Ranjan; Sajjad, Haroon; Elvidge, Christopher D; Ting, Yu; Pandey, Prem Chandra; Rani, Meenu; Kumar, Pavan

    2018-04-01

    Changes in the pattern of electric power consumption in India have influenced energy utilization processes and socio-economic development to greater extent during the last few decades. Assessment of spatial distribution of electricity consumption is, thus, essential for projecting availability of energy resource and planning its infrastructure. This paper makes an attempt to model the future electricity demand for sustainable energy and its management in India. The nighttime light database provides a good approximation of availability of energy. We utilized defense meteorological satellite program-operational line-scan system (DMSP-OLS) nighttime satellite data, electricity consumption (1993-2013), gross domestic product (GDP) and population growth to construct the model. We also attempted to examine the sensitiveness of electricity consumption to GDP and population growth. The results revealed that the calibrated DMSP and model has provided realistic information on the electric demand with respect to GDP and population, with a better accuracy of r 2  = 0.91. The electric demand was found to be more sensitive to GDP (r = 0.96) than population growth (r = 0.76) as envisaged through correlation analysis. Hence, the model proved to be useful tool in predicting electric demand for its sustainable use and management.

  20. Forecast electricity demand in Quebec: Development plan 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    Demographic, economic, and energy prospects are the determining factors in estimating demand for electricity in Quebec. In average scenarios developed for 1992-2010, the Quebec population will grow 0.5%/y and the gross domestic product will increase 2.6%/y. Firm electricity sales by Hydro-Quebec will grow to 197.9 TWh by 2010, or 2.2%/y. Sales in the residential and farm sectors should grow 1.3%/y and sales in the general and institutional sectors should rise by 2.2%/y. Electricity demand in the industrial sector, rising at an estimated 2.9%/y in 1992-2010, is chiefly responsible for the anticipated growth in Hydro-Quebec's overall sales. The nonferrous smelting, refining, chemicals, and paper industries will account for ca 60% of this growth. In the municipal services and public transportation sectors, demand should grow 3.3%/y, and over half the growth forecast in this sector can be attributed to the impact that new uses of electricity are expected to have after 2005. High- and low-growth scenarios offer alternative visions of demand growth based on different but equally valid assumptions about demographic and economic growth. In terms of firm electricity sales, the high- and low-growth scenarios differ by 50 TWh in 2010. Hydro-Quebec has retained two strategic orientations that will influence growth in electricity sales: the development of industrial markets and extension of the energy-savings objective of 9.3 TWh forecast to the year 2000. Taking these two orientations into account, the growth rate for electricity sales in the average scenario would be 1.8%/y rather than 2.2%/y. 25 figs., 81 tabs

  1. Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

    2017-04-01

    The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

  2. The past, present, and future of U.S. utility demand-side management programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eto, J.

    1996-12-01

    Demand-side management or DSM refers to active efforts by electric and gas utilities to modify customers' energy use patterns. The experience in the US shows that utilities, when provided with appropriate incentives, can provide a powerful stimulus to energy efficiency in the private sector. This paper describes the range and history of DSM programs offered by US electric utilities, with a focus on the political, economic, and regulatory events that have shaped their evolution. It also describes the changes these programs are undergoing as a result of US electricity industry restructuring. DSM programs began modestly in the 1970s in response to growing concerns about dependence on foreign sources of oil and environmental consequences of electricity generation, especially nuclear power. The foundation for the unique US partnership between government and utility interests can be traced first to the private-ownership structure of the vertically integrated electricity industry and second to the monopoly franchise granted by state regulators. Electricity industry restructuring calls into question both of these basic conditions, and thus the future of utility DSM programs for the public interest. Future policies guiding ratepayer-funded energy-efficiency DSM programs will need to pay close attention to the specific market objectives of the programs and to the balance between public and private interests

  3. The past, present, and future of U.S. utility demand-side management programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eto, J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States). Environmental Energy Technologies Div.

    1996-12-01

    Demand-side management or DSM refers to active efforts by electric and gas utilities to modify customers` energy use patterns. The experience in the US shows that utilities, when provided with appropriate incentives, can provide a powerful stimulus to energy efficiency in the private sector. This paper describes the range and history of DSM programs offered by US electric utilities, with a focus on the political, economic, and regulatory events that have shaped their evolution. It also describes the changes these programs are undergoing as a result of US electricity industry restructuring. DSM programs began modestly in the 1970s in response to growing concerns about dependence on foreign sources of oil and environmental consequences of electricity generation, especially nuclear power. The foundation for the unique US partnership between government and utility interests can be traced first to the private-ownership structure of the vertically integrated electricity industry and second to the monopoly franchise granted by state regulators. Electricity industry restructuring calls into question both of these basic conditions, and thus the future of utility DSM programs for the public interest. Future policies guiding ratepayer-funded energy-efficiency DSM programs will need to pay close attention to the specific market objectives of the programs and to the balance between public and private interests.

  4. The Demand for Calories in Developing Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Odin K. Knudsen; Pasquale L. Scandizzo

    1982-01-01

    This paper employs characteristic demand theory to estimate demand functions for calories for a set of developing countries and to investigate the potential impact of income growth, redistribution, and price changes on alleviating underconsumption of calories. The analysis finds that, although calorie elasticities with respect to income are substantial for the poorer consumers, income growth above historical rates is required for the food needs of the entire population to be satisfied within ...

  5. Nuclear power's changing future - Fastest growth in Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Twenty-two of the last 31 nuclear power plants (NPPs) connected to the world's energy grid have been built in Asia, driven by the pressures of economic growth, natural resource scarcity and increasing populations. Of the new NPPs presently under construction, 18 of the 27 are located in Asia, while construction has virtually halted in Western European and North American countries with long-standing nuclear power programmes, says the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The IAEA reports that although four Western European countries have decided to shut down their nuclear energy plants, the future of nuclear energy in Europe and North America is still far from clear, during a period when energy needs and concerns over global warming are both rising. Only one new NPP is beginning construction in Western Europe. No new NPPs are planned in North America, although that could change very soon. The Conference examines the status and future of nuclear power 50 years after the first nuclear energy producing plant came o n-line , at a plant near Moscow in the then Soviet Union on June 26, 1954. It covers the following topics: Nuclear Prospects in Near and Long-Term; Nuclear Power Today: Shifting to the East; Climate Change and Economics: Factors for Growth (NPPs Avoid Carbon Emissions, Costs are Low at Operating Plants; New Plants are Expensive); the Key Issues are Safety and Waste management; Uranium resources are abundant; sustainable development

  6. The uncertainty of future water supply adequacy in megacities: Effects of population growth and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2013-12-01

    Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.

  7. Supply and demand in the oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Favennec, J.P.

    2000-01-01

    The year 1998 was characterised a lower level of demand for energy in general and in articular for oil due to the Asian crisis. Within such a context; efforts at reducing production were not sufficient to prevent prices falling to their lowest levels since the first oil crisis. In 1999, we saw a complete reversal of this trend, with consumption back on a growth path and the new cuts in production agreed by OPEC being firmly implemented. These two factors have led to sustained increases in the price of oil, which, at the end of 1999, reached levels considered very high. Future prices will depend upon the durable nature of economic upturn and above all on continued discipline among the producer nations. (authors)

  8. Survey of projected growth and problems facing air transportation, 1975 - 1985

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, L. J.; Wilson, A.

    1975-01-01

    Results are presented of a survey conducted to determine the current opinion of people working in air transportation demand forecasting on the future of air transportation over the next ten years. In particular, the survey included questions on future demand growth, load factor, fuel prices, introduction date for the next new aircraft, the priorities of problems facing air transportation, and the probability of a substantial change in air transportation regulation. The survey participants included: airlines, manufacturers, universities, government agencies, and other organizations (financial institutions, private research companies, etc.). The results are shown for the average responses within the organization represented as well as the overall averages.

  9. Energy demand futures by global models : Projections of a complex system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edelenbosch, O.Y.

    2018-01-01

    The energy demand sectors industry, transport and buildings are together directly responsible for around 51 % of the global energy-related CO2 emissions and indirectly drive the emissions in the energy supply sectors. The demand sectors are characterized by many subsectors, technologies,

  10. Potentials for energy savings and long term energy demands for Croatian households sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Duic, Neven

    2011-01-01

    demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which also leads to lesser greenhouse gas emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels....... relevant. In order to plan future energy systems it is important to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand for different sectors. Through this paper long term energy demand projections for Croatian households sector will be shown with a special emphasis on different mechanisms, both...... financial, legal but also technological that will influence future energy demand scenarios. It is important to see how these mechanisms influence, positive or negative, on future energy demand and which mechanism would be most influential. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom...

  11. Potentials for energy savings and long term energy demands for Croatian households sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Duic, Neven

    2013-01-01

    demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which also leads to lesser greenhouse gas emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels....... relevant. In order to plan future energy systems it is important to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand for different sectors. Through this paper long term energy demand projections for Croatian households sector will be shown with a special emphasis on different mechanisms, both...... financial, legal but also technological that will influence future energy demand scenarios. It is important to see how these mechanisms influence, positive or negative, on future energy demand and which mechanism would be most influential. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom...

  12. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  13. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  14. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  15. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  16. Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 2. Renewable Electricity Generation and Storage Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Augustine, Chad [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bain, Richard [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Chapman, Jamie [Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (United States); Denholm, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Drury, Easan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hall, Douglas G. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Thresher, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sandor, Debra [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bishop, Norman A. [Knight Piesold, Denver, CO (United States); Brown, Stephen R. [HDR/DTA, Portland, ME (Untied States); Cada, Glenn F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Felker, Fort [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Fernandez, Steven J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Goodrich, Alan C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hagerman, George [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); Heath, Garvin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); O' Neil, Sean [Ocean Renewable Energy Coalition, Portland, OR (United States); Paquette, Joshua [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Young, Katherine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2012-06-15

    The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

  17. An overview of world future energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkin, F.P.

    1995-01-01

    The World Energy Council Commission's report Energy for Tomorrow's World was published in September 1993. The Commission's three year study of world energy problems involved both bottom-up studies, undertaken by groups of experts in nine main regions of the world, and top-down studies of global aspects. The latter included the preparation of energy demand and supply projections up to the study horizon of 2020, together with a brief look at prospects up to 2100. This Paper is based on the Commission's work. (author)

  18. NOx emissions trading: Precursor to future growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colella, A.

    1993-01-01

    Title I of the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 specified the framework for enhanced regulation in ozone non-attainment areas with increasingly stringent requirements dependent on the area classification - marginal, moderate, serious, severe or extreme. Before the CAAA were passed, only volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were regulated as precursors to ozone formation, Now, by statute, emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) are also regulated as ozone precursor. Under the CAAA, new sources and modifications of existing sources are subject to Title I permitting requirements in ozone non-attainment areas if emissions of NO x and/or VOCs exceed certain triggering levels. For many new or facility expansion projects, especially power generation, the NO x thresholds are easily exceeded thus triggering Title I non-attainment new source review which requires application of control technology to new equipment which results in the Lowest Achievable Emission Rate (LAER), and securing emission reductions either internally or from other major sources to offset the increased emission from the new or modified source. The selection of a LAER technology is generally within an applicant's control. An applicant can determine up-front the engineering and cost considerations associated with LAER technology is assessing a project's viability. However, without a clear source of emission offsets of a means to secure them, assessing project viability could be difficult if not impossible. No available emission offsets means no industrial growth. For sources of NO x undergoing Title I new source review, a regional or state banking system that facilitates NO x emissions trading is needed as a precursor to future growth. This paper presents an overview of EPA's Emissions Trading Policy and Title I new source review offset provisions. Industry's concerns about emissions trading and recommendations for future trading programs are presented

  19. Systems of the future; Les systemes du futur

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-01-15

    The world population growth will impact largely on the energy and electric power demand in the future. Facing the decrease of the hydrocarbons reserves, the international community decided to work together to develop a new generation of nuclear systems. In this context, coordinated researches are realized first with a short dated objective on the development of innovations for PWR type reactors and second with a middle dated on the development of new systems in an international framework (essentially Generation IV). Theses research programs are presented below. The first part is devoted to the different generation of reactors (I to IV) and to the third generation; the second part deals with the international framework of the researches, the french strategy and the european dimension. (A.L.B.)

  20. Panel discussion: LNG's future in Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohashi, Tadahiko

    1992-01-01

    The panelists convened to: (1) identify and evaluate the role which LNG is likely to play in the changing energy scene; (2) to examine the future supply and demand structure of the LNG trade; (3) to discover the key obstacles to continued growth in LNG trade; and (4) to find solutions to these problems. The panelists identified and outlined growing opportunities for LNG utilization in Asia during the next two decades. They shared the opinion that the structure of the supply and demand balance for LNG in Asia will shift during the next decade, providing considerable room for new projects. The key obstacles to continued growth in LNG trade are the lack of: long-distance transmission networks and an efficient competitive market pricing mechanism for LNG in the Asian region. The major importers in the region are keen on developing a range of new long-term supply alternatives, not simply within the Asia-Pacific region, but also from a wider perspective. These alternatives include: financing the expansion of production from existing facilities, development of new fields, and construction of long-distance pipelines

  1. Residential electricity demand in Singapore

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, B.W.; Goh, T.N.; Liu, X.Q.

    1992-01-01

    Residential electricity consumption in Singapore increased at a rate of 8.8% per year between 1972 and 1990. Estimates of the long-run income and price elasticities are 1.0 and -0.35, respectively. The energy-conservation campaigns that have been launched are found to have marginal effects on consumption. A statistical analysis shows that the consumption is sensitive to small changes in climatic variables, particularly the temperature, which is closely linked to the growing diffusion of electric appliances for environmental controls. There has been a temporal increase in the ownership levels of appliances associated with increasing household incomes. However, other factors were involved since the ownership levels would also increase over time after the elimination of the income effect. A large part of the future growth in electricity demand will arise from the growing need for air-conditioning, which will lead to increasingly large seasonal variations in electricity use. (author)

  2. R and D options for demand side management in Japanese electric utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, Takahiko

    1996-01-01

    Japanese electric demand has been steadily increasing in accordance with the economic growth. However, Japanese electric utilities are facing several problems; increasing construction cost of power facilities, siting constraints and the environmental issue of greenhouse gas emissions. To overcome these problems, electric utilities have been promoting demand-side-management (DSM) activities as well as supplier-side measures, with some presently being carried out through promoting energy conservation technologies and introducing electric tariff options of specific contracts for residential/commercial and industrial consumers. Japanese electric utilities have been carrying out R and D for the future, in particular, energy storage and heat storage which contribute to the improvement of load factor. In this paper, I would like to outline the R and D options for DSM in Japan. (author)

  3. Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation Demand and Crop Growth in a Mediterranean Environment of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomokazu Haraguchi

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available A simulation study was carried out to describe effects of climate change on cropgrowth and irrigation water demand for a wheat-maize cropping sequence in aMediterranean environment of Turkey. Climate change scenarios were projected using dataof the three general circulation models—GCMs (CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI—for theperiod of 1990 to 2100 and one regional climate model—RCM—for the period of 2070 to2079. Potential impacts of climate change based on GCMs data were estimated for the A2scenario in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES. The forcing data for theboundary condition of the RCM were given by the MRI model. Daily CGCM2 and RCMdata were used for computations of water balance and crop development. Predictionsderived from the models about changes in irrigation and crop growth in this study coveredthe period of 2070 to 2079 relative to the baseline period of 1994 to 2003. The effects ofclimate change on water demand and on wheat and maize yields were predicted using thedetailed crop growth subroutine of the SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant model. Precipitation was projected to decrease by about 163, 163 and 105 mm during the periodof 1990 to 2100 under the A2 scenario of the CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI models,respectively. The CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI models projected a temperature rise of 4.3,5.3 and 3.1 oC, respectively by 2100. An increase in temperature may result in a higherevaporative demand of the atmosphere. However, actual evapotranspiration (ETa fromwheat cropland under a doubling CO2 concentration for the period of 2070 to 2079 wasSensors 2007, 7 2298 predicted to decrease by about 28 and 8% relative to the baseline period based on the CGCM2 and RCM data, respectively. According to these models, irrigation demand by wheat would be higher for the same period due to a decrease in precipitation. Both ETa and irrigation water for maize cropland were projected to decrease by 24 and 15

  4. Energy in Latin America: Present and future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortiz, Johnny N; Sheffield, John W [University of Missouri-Rolla (United States)

    1997-07-01

    The primary focus of this paper is on the analysis of the current situation of energy production and consumption in the region as a whole, to examine the determinants of energy supply and demand growth, and to forecast the future growth of energy production, consumption, and balances. Since the growth of oil demand in Latin American countries themselves began to accelerate in the early 1990s, the lack of investment and development and the consequence shrinking base of Latin America's energy exports may pose serious challenges to North America, where dependence on the Middle Eastern oil and gas is growing. This paper attempts to present different scenarios and strategies to tackle the problem of Latin America's future net energy supply. [Spanish] El enfoque principal de este articulo es sobre la base de la situacion actual de la produccion y consumo de energia en la region como un todo, para examinar las determinantes del suministro de energia y el crecimiento de la demanda y la prediccion del crecimiento futuro de la produccion de energia, consumo y balances. Desde el crecimiento de la demanda del petroleo, en los paises latinoamericanos, ellos mismos empezaron a acelerar a principios de los 90s, la falta de inversion y desarrollo y la consecuencia del encogimiento de la base de las exportaciones de energia de Latinoamerica podrian imponer serios retos a Norte America, en donde la dependencia del petroleo y del gas del Medio-Oeste esta creciendo. Este articulo intenta presentar diferentes escenarios y estrategias para atacar el problema del suministro neto de energia de Latinoamerica.

  5. Investment guidelines based on future growth indicators / Christo Vorster

    OpenAIRE

    Vorster, Christo

    2008-01-01

    The stock market is cited to be one of the greatest tools ever invented for building wealth. The relative small size of the ideal portfolio, consisting of 10 to 12 shares, reiterates the fact that share selection is absolutely crucial to portfolio success and ultimately the creation of personal financial independence. The main objective of this study is to research, identify and develop investment guidelines based on possible future growth indicators of organisations listed on the JSE. ...

  6. Market-based demand forecasting promotes informed strategic financial planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beech, A J

    2001-11-01

    Market-based demand forecasting is a method of estimating future demand for a healthcare organization's services by using a broad range of data that describe the nature of demand within the organization's service area. Such data include the primary and secondary service areas, the service-area populations by various demographic groupings, discharge utilization rates, market size, and market share by service line and organizationwide. Based on observable market dynamics, strategic planners can make a variety of explicit assumptions about future trends regarding these data to develop scenarios describing potential future demand. Financial planners then can evaluate each scenario to determine its potential effect on selected financial and operational measures, such as operating margin, days cash on hand, and debt-service coverage, and develop a strategic financial plan that covers a range of contingencies.

  7. Future Opportunities and Challenges with Using Demand Response as a Resource in Distribution System Operation and Planning Activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cappers, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); MacDonald, Jason [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Page, Janie [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Potter, Jennifer [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Stewart, Emma [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-01-01

    This scoping study focuses on identifying the ability for current and future demand response opportunities to contribute to distribution system management. To do so, this scoping study will identify the needs of a distribution system to operate efficiently, safely and reliably; summarize both benefits and challenges for the operation of the distribution system with high penetration levels of distributed energy resources; define a suite of services based on those changing operational needs that could be provided by resources; identify existing demand response opportunities sponsored by distribution utilities and/or aggregators of retail customers; assess the extent to which distribution system services can be provided via DR opportunities both in their current form and with alterations to their design; and provide a qualitative assessment of coordination issues that bulk power and distribution system providers of DR opportunities will need to address.

  8. Demand and supply in Russian gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milovidov, K.N.

    1997-01-01

    The big volume of gas supplies for current and future energy and natural gas balances in Russia is important to understand the likely future dynamics of demand for gas. The path of future demand in Russia is uncertain and the range of possible scenarios is wide. For creating the new gas consumption structure, more deep diversification and development of the gas distribution systems, large investments and considerable periods of time are necessary. The factors usually studied in detail in the conditions of market economy can not be used here as a basis for strategic planning due to several reasons. (R.P.)

  9. The energy supply and demand outlook in the Asia-Pacific region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesharaki, F.

    1993-01-01

    The 1980s witnessed spectacular growth rates in the Asia-Pacific region. While the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption is not necessarily one-to-one, energy is a required input for economic activity and trade. Energy demand growth in the Asia-Pacific region has been accordingly rapid. At this point in history, oil and economic growth are so inter-related that changes in one invariably have major repercussions on the other. During the coming decade, continued economic growth is foreseen for the Asia-Pacific region, coupled with the fastest rate of oil demand growth of any region on earth. Pressure will come to bear on the regional oil and gas markets, since demand growth will take place concurrently with a decline in the availability of local, low-sulfur crudes. The region will become even more dependent on imports of Middle Eastern crude, which will result in a higher-sulfur crude slate. Moreover, we anticipate that the existing and planned refinery complexes will lack the capacity and the flexibility to fully satisfy product demand. The consequence will be a higher level of refined product imports. The paper looks in greater detail at the supply and demand situation with respect to oil and natural gas, at regional oil import dependency and refining capacity. (10 figures). (author)

  10. A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

    2015-04-01

    We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on

  11. Outlook for world nuclear power generation and long-term energy supply and demand situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Yuhji

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the author presents a long-term outlook for the world's nuclear generating capacity, taking into account the nuclear policy changes after Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. World primary energy demand will grow from 11.2 billion tons of oil equivalent (toe) in 2009 to 17.3 billion toe in 2035. Along with this rapid increase in global energy consumption, the world's nuclear generating capacity will grow from 392 GW in 2010 to 484 GW in 2020 and 574 GW in 2035 in the 'Reference scenario'. Even in the 'Low nuclear scenario', where the maximum impact of Fukushima accident to the nuclear policies of each government is assumed, it will continue to grow in the future, exceeding 500 GW in 2035. In particular, Asian countries such as China and India will lead the growth both in the energy demand and in the nuclear power capacity. Therefore, it is essential to better ensure the safety of nuclear power generation. It is important for technologically developed countries, including Japan, to make active contributions to the establishment of a global nuclear safety control system. On the other hand, energy security and global warming will continue to be major issues, which will make it indispensable to make the best effort to save energy and expand renewable energy utilization. Japan is competitive in energy-saving and environmental conservation technologies, thus further development and utilization of there technologies should be a key option of Japan's growth growth strategy in the future. (author)

  12. Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems: Operations and Transmission Planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milligan, M.; Ela, E.; Hein, J.; Schneider, T.; Brinkman, G.; Denholm, P.

    2012-06-01

    The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

  13. The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Yophy, E-mail: yohuanghaka@gmail.com [Deptartment of Public Finance and Tax Administration, National Taipei College of Business, Taipei Taiwan, 10051 (China); Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey [Deptartment of Economics, Chinese Culture University, Yang-Ming-Shan, Taipei, 11114, Taiwan (China); Peng, Chieh-Yu [Statistics Department, Taoyuan District Court, No. 1 Fazhi Road, Taoyuan City 33053, Taiwan (China)

    2011-11-15

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research Highlights: > The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. > Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO{sub 2} emission. > The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. > Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. > Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

  14. Impacts of compact growth and electric vehicles on future air quality and urban exposures may be mixed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Haofei; Stuart, Amy L

    2017-01-15

    'Smart' growth and electric vehicles are potential solutions to the negative impacts of worldwide urbanization on air pollution and health. However, the effects of planning strategies on distinct types of pollutants, and on human exposures, remain understudied. The goal of this work was to investigate the potential impacts of alternative urban designs for the area around Tampa, Florida USA, on emissions, ambient concentrations, and exposures to oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), 1,3-butadiene, and benzene. We studied three potential future scenarios: sprawling growth, compact growth, and 100% vehicle fleet electrification with compact growth. We projected emissions in the seven-county region to 2050 based on One Bay regional visioning plan data. We estimated pollutant concentrations in the county that contains Tampa using the CALPUFF dispersion model. We applied residential population projections to forecast acute (highest hour) and chronic (annual average) exposure. The compact scenario was projected to result in lower regional emissions of all pollutants than sprawl, with differences of -18%, -3%, and -14% for NO x , butadiene, and benzene, respectively. Within Hillsborough County, the compact form also had lower emissions, concentrations, and exposures than sprawl for NO x (-16%/-5% for acute/chronic exposures, respectively), but higher exposures for butadiene (+41%/+30%) and benzene (+21%/+9%). The addition of complete vehicle fleet electrification to the compact scenario mitigated these in-county increases for the latter pollutants, lowering predicted exposures to butadiene (-25%/-39%) and benzene (-5%/-19%), but also resulted in higher exposures to NO x (+81%/+30%) due to increased demand on power plants. These results suggest that compact forms may have mixed impacts on exposures and health. 'Smart' urban designs should consider multiple pollutants and the diverse mix of pollutant sources. Cleaner power generation will also likely be needed to support aggressive

  15. Growth in Malaysian Demand for Business Education--the Australian Response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Philip E. T.; Pratt, Graham R.

    1996-01-01

    Increasing Malaysian demand for business education is examined from the perspective of Australia, one of the largest suppliers to the region. Topics discussed include: origins and nature of the demand; Malaysian enrollment patterns in Australia; "twinning programs," in which a Malaysian college and a foreign university collaborate to…

  16. Future Protein Supply and Demand: Strategies and Factors Influencing a Sustainable Equilibrium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maeve Henchion

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A growing global population, combined with factors such as changing socio-demographics, will place increased pressure on the world’s resources to provide not only more but also different types of food. Increased demand for animal-based protein in particular is expected to have a negative environmental impact, generating greenhouse gas emissions, requiring more water and more land. Addressing this “perfect storm” will necessitate more sustainable production of existing sources of protein as well as alternative sources for direct human consumption. This paper outlines some potential demand scenarios and provides an overview of selected existing and novel protein sources in terms of their potential to sustainably deliver protein for the future, considering drivers and challenges relating to nutritional, environmental, and technological and market/consumer domains. It concludes that different factors influence the potential of existing and novel sources. Existing protein sources are primarily hindered by their negative environmental impacts with some concerns around health. However, they offer social and economic benefits, and have a high level of consumer acceptance. Furthermore, recent research emphasizes the role of livestock as part of the solution to greenhouse gas emissions, and indicates that animal-based protein has an important role as part of a sustainable diet and as a contributor to food security. Novel proteins require the development of new value chains, and attention to issues such as production costs, food safety, scalability and consumer acceptance. Furthermore, positive environmental impacts cannot be assumed with novel protein sources and care must be taken to ensure that comparisons between novel and existing protein sources are valid. Greater alignment of political forces, and the involvement of wider stakeholders in a governance role, as well as development/commercialization role, is required to address both sources of

  17. Future Protein Supply and Demand: Strategies and Factors Influencing a Sustainable Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henchion, Maeve; Hayes, Maria; Mullen, Anne Maria; Fenelon, Mark; Tiwari, Brijesh

    2017-01-01

    A growing global population, combined with factors such as changing socio-demographics, will place increased pressure on the world’s resources to provide not only more but also different types of food. Increased demand for animal-based protein in particular is expected to have a negative environmental impact, generating greenhouse gas emissions, requiring more water and more land. Addressing this “perfect storm” will necessitate more sustainable production of existing sources of protein as well as alternative sources for direct human consumption. This paper outlines some potential demand scenarios and provides an overview of selected existing and novel protein sources in terms of their potential to sustainably deliver protein for the future, considering drivers and challenges relating to nutritional, environmental, and technological and market/consumer domains. It concludes that different factors influence the potential of existing and novel sources. Existing protein sources are primarily hindered by their negative environmental impacts with some concerns around health. However, they offer social and economic benefits, and have a high level of consumer acceptance. Furthermore, recent research emphasizes the role of livestock as part of the solution to greenhouse gas emissions, and indicates that animal-based protein has an important role as part of a sustainable diet and as a contributor to food security. Novel proteins require the development of new value chains, and attention to issues such as production costs, food safety, scalability and consumer acceptance. Furthermore, positive environmental impacts cannot be assumed with novel protein sources and care must be taken to ensure that comparisons between novel and existing protein sources are valid. Greater alignment of political forces, and the involvement of wider stakeholders in a governance role, as well as development/commercialization role, is required to address both sources of protein and ensure

  18. Alternative futures for world cereal and meat consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosegrant, M W; Leach, N; Gerpacio, R V

    1999-05-01

    Fundamental changes in the global structure of food demand will lead to an extraordinary increase in the importance of developing countries in global food markets. Economic growth in developing countries is changing consumption patterns, with slower growth (and in many countries actual declines) in per capita food consumption of grains and rapidly growing per capita and total meat consumption, combined with induced growth in cereal feed consumption. The present paper examines the hypothesis, suggested by some researchers, that high-meat diets in developed countries limit improvement in food security in developing countries. These analysts argue that reduced meat consumption in developed countries would release cereals from livestock feed to food for poorer populations, thus improving food security in developing countries. Using the International Food Policy Research Institute (Washington, DC, USA) global food projections model, the international model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade (see Rosegrant et al. 1995), we first analyse the implications for future global cereal and meat supply and demand resulting from changes in global income, population growth and other structural changes, then simulate alternative scenarios to examine the effect of large reductions in meat consumption in developed countries on food consumption and food security in developing countries. The paper shows that while the long-term prospects for food supply, demand and trade indicate a strengthening of world cereal and livestock markets, the improvement in food security in the developing world will be slow, and changes in the dietary patterns in developed countries are not an effective route to improvement in food security in developing countries.

  19. Energy Policy and Long Term Energy Demand in Croatian Households Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puksec, T.; Duic, N.

    2011-01-01

    Households sector in Croatia represents one of the largest consumers of energy today with around 75,75PJ, which is almost 29% of Croatia's final energy demand. Considering this consumption, implementing different mechanisms that would lead to improvements in energy efficiency in this sector seems relevant. In order to plan future energy systems it is important to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand for different sectors. Through this paper long term energy demand projections for Croatian households sector will be shown with a special emphasis on different mechanisms, both financial, legal but also technological that will influence future energy demand scenarios. It is important to see how these mechanisms influence, positive or negative, on future energy demand and which mechanism would be most influential. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model which combines and process large number of input data. The Model will be compared to Croatian national Energy Strategy and certain difference will be presented. One of the major conclusions shown in this paper is significant possibilities for energy efficiency improvements and lower energy demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which also leads to lesser greenhouse gas emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels. (author)

  20. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    OpenAIRE

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-01-01

    An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant p...

  1. Higher demand and production in 2004, but growth wavers in 2005 : markets for paper, paperboard and woodpulp, 2004-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Eduard Akim; Bernard Lombard; Tomas Parik

    2005-01-01

    Global pulp, paper and paperboard markets improved in 2004 and 2005, as indicated by generally higher prices for most pulp, paper and paperboard products in comparison with 2003. While growth in demand was quite robust in 2004, by the end of the first half of 2005, markets appeared more hesitant and prices appeared to waver or reach a plateau. Within the UNECE region,...

  2. PVC makers study expansions to meet demand growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, D.; Coeyman, M.

    1993-01-01

    As prospects for the polyvinyl chloride (PVC) industry continue to improve, the next batch of capacity increases is being studied. Vista Chemical (Houston) sees an opportunity to achieve what company president James R. Ball calls the lowest-cost capacity addition in the market, by debottlenecking its PVC plants at Aberdeen, MS and Oklahoma City. That would increase capacity 40%, adding 300 million lbs/year to Vista's 830 million lbs/year. US demand for PVC grew 12.5% through the first 10 months of 1992, to 7.3 billion lbs, according to the latest figures available from the Society of the Plastics Industry. Alan Bailey, Oxy-Chem's executive v.p./polymers and plastics, predicts a good demand year in 1993 - better even than 1992, driven by an upward trend in housing starts and a recovering economy

  3. Energy supply and demand in Canada and export demand for Canadian energy, 1966--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1969-01-01

    This report presents the results of a National Energy Board staff study of energy supply and demand in Canada to 1990. The study covers all forms of energy in Canada, and probable sources of supply for serving both indigenous and export demand for Canadian energy. Energy demand by market sector (residential and commercial, industrial, and transportation) is discussed in Chapters III, IV and V, respectively. Chapters VI, VII, VIII, and IX deal with supply prospects for Canadian petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity serving indigenous and export markets. A summary of the report is contained in Chapter II. Appendix A reviews general assumptions including those relating to population and household growth. Appendix B summarizes the methodology used for estimating residential energy demand, automobile transportation energy demand, and electricity supply. Appendix C includes a number of tables which provide detailed information. A list of definitions and abbreviations follows the Table of Contents.

  4. Predicting Urban Medical Services Demand in China: An Improved Grey Markov Chain Model by Taylor Approximation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Jinli; Jiao, Feng; Zhang, Qishan; Lin, Zhibin

    2017-08-06

    The sharp increase of the aging population has raised the pressure on the current limited medical resources in China. To better allocate resources, a more accurate prediction on medical service demand is very urgently needed. This study aims to improve the prediction on medical services demand in China. To achieve this aim, the study combines Taylor Approximation into the Grey Markov Chain model, and develops a new model named Taylor-Markov Chain GM (1,1) (T-MCGM (1,1)). The new model has been tested by adopting the historical data, which includes the medical service on treatment of diabetes, heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease from 1997 to 2015 in China. The model provides a predication on medical service demand of these three types of disease up to 2022. The results reveal an enormous growth of urban medical service demand in the future. The findings provide practical implications for the Health Administrative Department to allocate medical resources, and help hospitals to manage investments on medical facilities.

  5. Long-term water demand for electricity, industry and households

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijl, David L.; Bogaart, Patrick W.; Kram, Tom; de Vries, Bert J M; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Better water demand projections are needed in order to better assess water scarcity. The focus in this paper is on non-agricultural water demand, as this is the fastest-growing and least well-modelled demand component. We describe an end use-oriented model for future water demand in the electricity,

  6. Assessing demand when introducing a new fuel: natural gas on Java

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenendaal, W.J.H. van

    1995-01-01

    The Indonesian government is investing in a gas transmission system on Java. For the evaluation of this investment a forecast of the demand for natural gas by the manufacturing sector is needed. To obtain this forecast the manufacturing sector is divided into subsectors according to energy use in production processes. On the level of production processes the opportunities for natural gas are based on net present value evaluations of its future benefits in production. This results in the desired fuel mix for manufacturing subsectors, from which the gas intensity ratios per subsector for existing production and new investments are calculated. Gas demand can then be forecast by combining the gas intensity ratios with subsectoral (growth in) gross value-added. This approach leads to a flexible forecasting tool that can readily account for changes in economic structure and energy prices, as encountered by rapidly developing economies. (author)

  7. Economics and financing of future power: Is there a case for nuclear?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skinner, R.G.

    1993-01-01

    The International Energy Agency forecasts world energy demand to increase nearly 50% by 2010, with the developing world consuming over half of global energy output by that time. Of the growth in energy demand, 42% will be for electricity, with fossil-fuel based capacity expected to take up most of this growth. Against this view of a global energy future, the factors that will influence the economics of nuclear energy and the ability to finance it are examined. The context of financing in the power sector is described, noting the increasing emphasis on competition and efficiency within the energy sector and the move toward privatization. For the financing of new nuclear power facilities by investors, the most important influencing factors are the need to achieve progress with a high-level waste repository, a predictable licensing process and stable regulation, and maintaining and improving the high safety and reliability performance of operating plants. Favorable economics is only part of what is required for making nuclear commercially viable; other conditions include public acceptance, strong institutional support, high rate of growth of base-load electricity demand, and lack of more satisfactory alternatives. Since public perception may hinge on future nuclear performance in eastern Europe, the power sector in that region is briefly reviewed. Finally, reference is made to some of the principal issues that might bear on the role of nuclear power into the 21st century, in particular its relation to environmental policy and the role of natural gas in electricity production. 9 refs. 1 tab

  8. Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó.; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies. - Highlights: •A private car energy model is built using aggregated available data. •Andorra's current car fleet energy consumption is estimated and forecasted to 2050. •Potential energy savings have been estimated using sensitivity and scenario analysis.

  9. Transportation in the future : blind side of the oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schipper, L.

    2002-01-01

    The first oil embargo of 1974 and the oil crisis of 1979/1980 demonstrated that of all sectors, the transportation sector is the most threatened by abrupt changes in fuel prices. For that reason, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and member countries have strived to develop a good set of analytical tools for forecasting future energy demand in transportation. This presentation addressed issues regarding oil demand and explained why it may never be the same. Oil demand has been changed by the imposition of fuel economy standards in North America, voluntary agreements to limit fuel consumption in Europe, and the freight related component. Motor vehicle ownership is growing significantly in developing countries. Neither oil problems nor carbon dioxide emissions will slow that growth for a long time to come. Traffic congestion and pollution are major problems in most of the developing world. Therefore, policies to save oil or reduce carbon dioxide emissions should be integrated with strategies to improve transportation and clean the air in developing countries. New incentives may include clean vehicles, fuel efficiency, clean and low carbon fuels, and transportation planning. The paper also described how information technology, such as use of the Internet, is a low energy product that can boost economic activity and which in the future, may have a broader impact on transportation. It was concluded that while transportation energy is driven by economic growth, it can be impacted by higher prices and by energy policies. 16 figs

  10. The future of national oil Companies of OPEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subroto.

    1994-01-01

    OPEC countries are dependent on their National Oil Companies for international trade, economy, technology transfer and social planning. With low oil prices, increasing demand and worsened financial and economic status, time has come to give priority to two major issues necessary for health existence and growth of our national oil companies : cost reduction through the application of new technologies and less support from public funds ; planning for future markets beyond national borders, particularly developing countries. (Author)

  11. Understanding the design of energy interventions to reduce end-user demand in organisational and domestic environments

    OpenAIRE

    Foster, Derek

    2017-01-01

    Energy demand is on the rise globally due to unchecked factors such as population growth, lifestyle choices, and the industrialization of developing countries. Governments are investing in technologies for efficient and renewable energy in an attempt to secure energy for the future over current dependencies on fossil fuels, but the development costs are high, and the rate of developed technologies is projected to fall far short of meeting global requirements. Overshadowing this growing app...

  12. Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems. Operations and Transmission Planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milligan, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ela, Erik [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hein, Jeff [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Schneider, Thomas [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brinkman, Gregory [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Denholm, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2012-06-15

    The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

  13. Supply and demand elasticities in the U.S. ethanol fuel market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luchansky, Matthew S.; Monks, James

    2009-01-01

    The market for ethanol has grown from approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 1997 to almost 5 billion gallons in 2006. With the huge increase in ethanol demand in recent years, the growth in derived demand for corn has driven up many food prices. This paper uses monthly data from 1997-2006 to estimate the market supply and demand for ethanol at the national level. The simultaneous determination of the supply and demand curves using two-stage least squares allows for the calculation of supply and demand-side elasticities, which are important results in light of the tremendous growth in this market and recent legislation concerning ethanol. (author)

  14. Supply and demand elasticities in the U.S. ethanol fuel market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luchansky, Matthew S. [University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign49 Roger Adams Lab, 81-5600 S. Mathews Ave., Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Monks, James [Robins School of Business, University of Richmond, Richmond, VA 23173 (United States)

    2009-05-15

    The market for ethanol has grown from approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 1997 to almost 5 billion gallons in 2006. With the huge increase in ethanol demand in recent years, the growth in derived demand for corn has driven up many food prices. This paper uses monthly data from 1997-2006 to estimate the market supply and demand for ethanol at the national level. The simultaneous determination of the supply and demand curves using two-stage least squares allows for the calculation of supply and demand-side elasticities, which are important results in light of the tremendous growth in this market and recent legislation concerning ethanol. (author)

  15. Consumption of electricity in Punjab: Structure and growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhargava, Nisha; Singh, Baldev; Gupta, Shakuntla

    2009-01-01

    Electricity has played a pivotal role in the development of Punjab economy. Of late there has been a steep rise in the demand for electricity in the state. The present study undertakes a holistic view of growth of demand for electricity in the state. The technique applied is multiple regression and secondary data is used for the purpose of analysis. The study concludes that demand for electricity in the state is price inelastic but income elastic for majority of consuming sectors. An important policy implication thereof is that price hike will be ineffective in regulating and managing demand unless price is varied in an hourly basis. Therefore, the state has to resort to other demand-side management (DSM) measures, such as improving efficiency of electricity use and its conservation. Considering the high income elasticity of electricity demand, sufficient electricity-generating capacity needs to be created, since demand is expected to grow at an accelerated rate in future. This calls for a comprehensive electricity policy. The study further concludes that in the long run, price-demand as well as income-demand relationship in case of electricity is likely to remain uncertain especially in the post-reform era.

  16. Consumption of electricity in Punjab. Structure and growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhargava, Nisha; Singh, Baldev [Department of Economics, DAV College Hoshiarpur, Punjab (India); Gupta, Shakuntla [Department of Economics, Punjabi University Patiala, Punjab (India)

    2009-06-15

    Electricity has played a pivotal role in the development of Punjab economy. Of late there has been a steep rise in the demand for electricity in the state. The present study undertakes a holistic view of growth of demand for electricity in the state. The technique applied is multiple regression and secondary data is used for the purpose of analysis. The study concludes that demand for electricity in the state is price inelastic but income elastic for majority of consuming sectors. An important policy implication thereof is that price hike will be ineffective in regulating and managing demand unless price is varied in an hourly basis. Therefore, the state has to resort to other demand-side management (DSM) measures, such as improving efficiency of electricity use and its conservation. Considering the high income elasticity of electricity demand, sufficient electricity-generating capacity needs to be created, since demand is expected to grow at an accelerated rate in future. This calls for a comprehensive electricity policy. The study further concludes that in the long run, price-demand as well as income-demand relationship in case of electricity is likely to remain uncertain especially in the post-reform era. (author)

  17. Application of linked regional scale growth, biogeography, and economic models for southeastern United States pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven G. McNulty; Jennifer A. Moore; Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Robert, et al. Abt

    2000-01-01

    The southern United States produces over 50% of commercial timber harvests in the US and the demand for southern timber are likely to increase in the future. Global change is altering the physical and chemical environmental which will play a major role in determining future forest stand growth, insect and disease outbreaks, regeneration success, and distribution of...

  18. Application of Linked Regional Scale Growth, Biogeography, and Economic Models for Southeastern United States Pine Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven G. McNulty; Jennifer A. Moore; Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Robert Abt; Bryan Smith; Ge Sun; Michael Gavazzi; John Bartlett; Brian Murray; Robert A. Mickler; John D. Aber

    2000-01-01

    The southern United States produces over 50% of commercial timber harvests in the US and the demand for southern timber are likely to increase in the future. Global change is altering the physical and chemical environmental which will play a major role in determining future forest stand growth, insect and disease outbreaks, regeneration success, and distribution of...

  19. Energy in Latin America: Present and future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortiz, Johnny N; Sheffield, John W [University of Missouri-Rolla (United States)

    1997-07-01

    The primary focus of this paper is on the analysis of the current situation of energy production and consumption in the region as a whole, to examine the determinants of energy supply and demand growth, and to forecast the future growth of energy production, consumption, and balances. Since the growth of oil demand in Latin American countries themselves began to accelerate in the early 1990s, the lack of investment and development and the consequence shrinking base of Latin America's energy exports may pose serious challenges to North America, where dependence on the Middle Eastern oil and gas is growing. This paper attempts to present different scenarios and strategies to tackle the problem of Latin America's future net energy supply. [Spanish] El enfoque principal de este articulo es sobre la base de la situacion actual de la produccion y consumo de energia en la region como un todo, para examinar las determinantes del suministro de energia y el crecimiento de la demanda y la prediccion del crecimiento futuro de la produccion de energia, consumo y balances. Desde el crecimiento de la demanda del petroleo, en los paises latinoamericanos, ellos mismos empezaron a acelerar a principios de los 90s, la falta de inversion y desarrollo y la consecuencia del encogimiento de la base de las exportaciones de energia de Latinoamerica podrian imponer serios retos a Norte America, en donde la dependencia del petroleo y del gas del Medio-Oeste esta creciendo. Este articulo intenta presentar diferentes escenarios y estrategias para atacar el problema del suministro neto de energia de Latinoamerica.

  20. Modelling residential electricity demand in the GCC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atalla, Tarek N.; Hunt, Lester C.

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims at understanding the drivers of residential electricity demand in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries by applying the structural time series model. In addition to the economic variables of GDP and real electricity prices, the model accounts for population, weather, and a stochastic underlying energy demand trend as a proxy for efficiency and human behaviour. The resulting income and price elasticities are informative for policy makers given the paucity of previous estimates for a region with particular political structures and economies subject to large shocks. In particular, the estimates allow for a sound assessment of the impact of energy-related policies suggesting that if policy makers in the region wish to curtail future residential electricity consumption they would need to improve the efficiency of appliances and increase energy using awareness of consumers, possibly by education and marketing campaigns. Moreover, even if prices were raised the impact on curbing residential electricity growth in the region is likely to be very small given the low estimated price elasticities—unless, that is, prices were raised so high that expenditure on electricity becomes such a large proportion of income that the price elasticities increase (in absolute terms). - Highlights: • Residential electricity demand for Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia • Estimated residential electricity demand relationships using STSM/UEDT approach • LR income and price elasticities from 0.43 to 0.71 and − 0.16 to zero respectively • Impact CDD elasticities from 0.2 to 0.7 • Estimated UEDTs suggest exogenous electricity using behaviour.

  1. The Job Demands?Resources model: Challenges for future research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. Demerouti (Eva); A.B. Bakke (Arnold B.)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractMotivation: The motivation of this overview is to present the state of the art of Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model whilst integrating the various contributions to the special issue. Research purpose: To provide an overview of the JD-R model, which incorporates many possible working

  2. Using imperfect advance demand information in forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, T.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the demand-forecasting problem of a make-to-stock system operating in a business-to-business environment where some customers provide information on their future orders, which are subject to changes in time, hence constituting imperfect advance demand information (ADI).

  3. Modelling global container freight transport demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tavasszy, L.A.; Ivanova, O.; Halim, R.A.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this chapter is to discuss methods and techniques for a quantitative and descriptive analysis of future container transport demand at a global level. Information on future container transport flows is useful for various purposes. It is instrumental for the assessment of returns of

  4. Electric demand and the antinuclear movement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studness, C.M.

    1984-01-01

    The author feels that, with electric demand growth of 4.5 to 5% per year expected, it will be only a matter of time before stepping-up the stream of utility capacity additions becomes an important issue. If demand grows 4.5% per year instead of 2.8% as projected by NERC, demand will be 10% higher and peak reserve margins about 12 percentage points lower than envisioned by the NERC projections after five years. By 1988 or 1989, little or no excess capacity will remain, and the utilities will be faced with adding twice as much capacity annually as now planned to avoid service deterioration. As questions about the adequacy of current utility capacity plans and concerns about service quality move toward center stage, the antinuclear movement should find it increasingly difficult to garner the broad support it now enjoys. Capacity represented by any uncompleted nuclear plants will appear increasingly beneficial, and those who do not have strong antinuclear sentiments should become increasingly hesitant about lending support to the movement. Accordingly, electric demand growth in due course can be expected to drain marginal supporters from the antinuclear movement and thereby erode the movement's vitality

  5. Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ferreira Dos Santos, M.J.; Dekker, S.C.; Daioglou, Vasileios; Braakhekke, M.C.; van Vuuren, Detlef

    Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for

  6. Industrial and commercial considerations affecting future uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostuik, J.

    1977-01-01

    The paper examines the available evidence relating to the balance of supply and demand for uranium, with particular reference to factors which are likely to affect commercial decisions. The physical constraints limiting the rate of production expansion are examined, both in the short term, based on known ore-bodies, and in the longer term, as a result of exploration. The scale of the uncertainties in estimated demand are stressed, and the consequential need for a determined effort to improve the data-base on which commercial judgements have to be made. The powerful influences which governmental actions can have on commercial decision-making and on the freedom to produce and export uranium, are mentioned. (author)

  7. Industrial and commercial considerations affecting future uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostuik, J.

    1977-01-01

    The paper examines the available evidence relating to the balance of supply and demand for uranium, with particular reference to factors which are likely to affect commercial decisions. The physical constraints limiting the rate of expansion of production are examined, both in the short term, based on known ore-bodies, and in the longer term, as a result of exploration. The scale of the uncertainties in estimated demand, and the consequential need for a determined effort to improve the data base on which commercial judgements have to be made is stressed. The powerful influences which governmental actions can have on commercial decision-making, and on the freedom to produce and export uranium, are illustrated

  8. Demand response in energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skytte, K.; Birk Mortensen, J.

    2004-11-01

    Improving the ability of energy demand to respond to wholesale prices during critical periods of the spot market can reduce the total costs of reliably meeting demand, and the level and volatility of the prices. This fact has lead to a growing interest in the short-run demand response. There has especially been a growing interest in the electricity market where peak-load periods with high spot prices and occasional local blackouts have recently been seen. Market concentration at the supply side can result in even higher peak-load prices. Demand response by shifting demand from peak to base-load periods can counteract the market power in the peak-load. However, demand response has so far been modest since the current short-term price elasticity seems to be small. This is also the case for related markets, for example, green certificates where the demand is determined as a percentage of the power demand, or for heat and natural gas markets. This raises a number of interesting research issues: 1) Demand response in different energy markets, 2) Estimation of price elasticity and flexibility, 3) Stimulation of demand response, 4) Regulation, policy and modelling aspects, 5) Demand response and market power at the supply side, 6) Energy security of supply, 7) Demand response in forward, spot, ancillary service, balance and capacity markets, 8) Demand response in deviated markets, e.g., emission, futures, and green certificate markets, 9) Value of increased demand response, 10) Flexible households. (BA)

  9. Mapping ecosystem services demand: A review of current research and future perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolff, S.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Verburg, P.H.

    2015-01-01

    Mapping the demand for ecosystem services (ES) has received increased attention in scientific research and is seen as a relevant tool to inform conservation planning, land use planning and management. Yet, there is a varying understanding of the concept of ES demand, which has implications on how

  10. Seven Trends Driving U.S. Food Demands

    OpenAIRE

    Kinsey, Jean D.

    1992-01-01

    Seven trends have a great deal to say about how demand for food will evolve into the 21 st century. They relate to the slow growth in total food demand, diversity in foods, global homogenization of food consumption patterns, demand for convenience, public services related to food, relationships between food production and its distribution to the environment, and, better health. Paying close attention to these factors can help distinguish between fads that will soon be gone and more fundamenta...

  11. Forecasting Ontario's blood supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drackley, Adam; Newbold, K Bruce; Paez, Antonio; Heddle, Nancy

    2012-02-01

    Given an aging population that requires increased medical care, an increasing number of deferrals from the donor pool, and a growing immigrant population that typically has lower donation rates, the purpose of this article is to forecast Ontario's blood supply and demand. We calculate age- and sex-specific donation and demand rates for blood supply based on 2008 data and project demand between 2008 and 2036 based on these rates and using population data from the Ontario Ministry of Finance. Results indicate that blood demand will outpace supply as early as 2012. For instance, while the total number of donations made by older cohorts is expected to increase in the coming years, the number of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in the 70+ age group is forecasted grow from approximately 53% of all RBC transfusions in 2008 (209,515) in 2008 to 68% (546,996) by 2036. A series of alternate scenarios, including projections based on a 2% increase in supply per year and increased use of apheresis technology, delays supply shortfalls, but does not eliminate them without active management and/or multiple methods to increase supply and decrease demand. Predictions show that demand for blood products will outpace supply in the near future given current age- and sex-specific supply and demand rates. However, we note that the careful management of the blood supply by Canadian Blood Services, along with new medical techniques and the recruitment of new donors to the system, will remove future concerns. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

  12. Water availability, water quality water governance: the future ahead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tundisi, J. G.; Matsumura-Tundisi, T.; Ciminelli, V. S.; Barbosa, F. A.

    2015-04-01

    The major challenge for achieving a sustainable future for water resources and water security is the integration of water availability, water quality and water governance. Water is unevenly distributed on Planet Earth and these disparities are cause of several economic, ecological and social differences in the societies of many countries and regions. As a consequence of human misuse, growth of urbanization and soil degradation, water quality is deteriorating continuously. Key components for the maintenance of water quantity and water quality are the vegetation cover of watersheds, reduction of the demand and new water governance that includes integrated management, predictive evaluation of impacts, and ecosystem services. Future research needs are discussed.

  13. Indian power sector: past, present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varma, C.V.J.; Lal, P.K.

    1994-01-01

    In India population and economic growth is expected to create serious power shortages triggering the need for new power generation capacity. The situation is worsened on account of stagnant conditions prevailing in the country during the past few years. The opening of economy to the global market is expected to usher in an increased economic growth bringing in its wake greater demand for power. It will, thus, be seen that to cater these requirements the power sector industry in the country will have to grow at a much faster rate in the near future. However, to have a correct perspective of the emerging scenario, it might be worthwhile to have a look at the past patterns of development. (author). 9 refs., 5 tabs

  14. Future of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, John

    2005-01-01

    Australia has one of the most cost-effective energy conversion and delivery systems in the world. We are blessed with abundant, high-quality fossil fuels consisting mainly of coal, gas and (diminishing) oil resources. However, this past blessing is also a future curse as this fuel mix, coupled with limits to hydroelectric growth and no nuclear generation capacity, has endowed Australia with one of the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of GDP in the developed world (currently 43 per cent above the International Energy Agency average). This prompted Claude Mandil, head of the IEA, to observe: 'Environmental sustainability represent Australia's greatest energy challenge, with high and growing carbon dioxide emissions.' The challenge for Australia is how to make the massive cuts in GHG emissions required to minimise our world trade risks (which will come at a cost, and put pressure on our energy cost-effectiveness) while maintaining an internationally competitive energy sector. This challenge is exacerbated by a healthy national growth rate which will be accompanied by at least a 50 per cent growth in energy demand by 2020, with a doubling by 2050. Electricity industry projections predict an investment in new generation capacity well in excess of $30 billion to keep up with demand over the next two decades. The stark reality is that if we con tinue to supply and use energy the way we do now, we may as well forget about stabilising our GHG emissions from the energy sector, let alone reducing them in the future. This urgent situation presents a huge opportunity for the introduction of new and improved low-emission energy conversion technologies and demand management systems that vastly reduce GHG emissions per unit of productivity - in fact, an opportunity to transform Australia's energy sector to levels of innovation, social acceptance and environmental performance that has no precedent in this country. We have little choice other than to make a start. Are

  15. Projected Demand and Potential Impacts to the National Airspace System of Autonomous, Electric, On-Demand Small Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jeremy C.; Viken, Jeffrey K.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.; Dollyhigh, Samuel M.; Fenbert, James W.; Hartman, Christopher L.; Kwa, Teck-Seng; Moore, Mark D.

    2012-01-01

    Electric propulsion and autonomy are technology frontiers that offer tremendous potential to achieve low operating costs for small-aircraft. Such technologies enable simple and safe to operate vehicles that could dramatically improve regional transportation accessibility and speed through point-to-point operations. This analysis develops an understanding of the potential traffic volume and National Airspace System (NAS) capacity for small on-demand aircraft operations. Future demand projections use the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), a tool suite developed by NASA and the Transportation Laboratory of Virginia Polytechnic Institute. Demand projections from TSAM contain the mode of travel, number of trips and geographic distribution of trips. For this study, the mode of travel can be commercial aircraft, automobile and on-demand aircraft. NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES) is used to assess NAS impact. This simulation takes a schedule that includes all flights: commercial passenger and cargo; conventional General Aviation and on-demand small aircraft, and operates them in the simulated NAS. The results of this analysis projects very large trip numbers for an on-demand air transportation system competitive with automobiles in cost per passenger mile. The significance is this type of air transportation can enhance mobility for communities that currently lack access to commercial air transportation. Another significant finding is that the large numbers of operations can have an impact on the current NAS infrastructure used by commercial airlines and cargo operators, even if on-demand traffic does not use the 28 airports in the Continental U.S. designated as large hubs by the FAA. Some smaller airports will experience greater demand than their current capacity allows and will require upgrading. In addition, in future years as demand grows and vehicle performance improves other non-conventional facilities such as short runways incorporated into

  16. The development of future thinking: young children's ability to construct event sequences to achieve future goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakar, Janani; Hudson, Judith A

    2014-11-01

    Previous studies suggest that the ability to think about and act on the future emerges between 3 and 5 years of age. However, it is unclear what underlying processes change during the development of early future-oriented behavior. We report three experiments that tested the emergence of future thinking ability through children's ability to explicitly maintain future goals and construct future scenarios. Our main objectives were to examine the effects of goal structure and the effects of working memory demands on children's ability to construct future scenarios and make choices to satisfy future goals. The results indicate that 4-year-olds were able to successfully accomplish two temporally ordered goals even with high working memory demands and a complex goal structure, whereas 3-year-olds were able to accomplish two goals only when the working memory demands were low and the goal structure did not involve additional demands from inferential reasoning and contingencies between the temporally ordered goals. Results are discussed in terms of the development of future thinking in conjunction with working memory, inferential reasoning ability, and goal maintenance abilities. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. Case study of forecasting uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noritake, Kazumitsu

    1992-01-01

    PNC collects and analyzes information about uranium market trend, world uranium supply and demand, and world uranium resources potential in order to establish the strategy of uranium exploration. This paper outlines the results obtained to forecast uranium supply and demand. Our forecast indicates that 8,500 tU, accounting for one-sixth of the demand in the year 2001, must be met by uranium produced by mines to be newly developed. After 2019, demand cannot be met by the 123 mines currently in operation or expected to have gone into production by this year. The projected shortage must therefore be covered by uranium to be newly discovered. To preclude this occurrence, uranium exploration will have to be steadily continued in order to ensure future new uranium resources, to alleviate anxiety about future supply, and to prevent sharp price hikes. (author)

  18. P. Electricity demand, substitution and resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-01-01

    This report discusses the demand for electricity in New Zealand, the accuracy of demand predictions, and whether some other form of energy could be substituted for electricity. It then discusses past and possible future electricity generation in New Zealand by geothermal steam and hydro power and the resources of gas and coal that could be made available for electricity generation

  19. A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

    2017-12-01

    The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

  20. Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Boqiang; Xie, Chunping

    2013-01-01

    China is currently in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, which is characterized by rigid energy demand and rapid growth of energy consumption. Therefore, energy conservation will become a major strategy for China in a transition to low-carbon economy. China's transport industry is of high energy consumption. In 2010, oil consumption in transport industry takes up 38.2% of the country's total oil demand, of which 23.6% is taken up by road transport sector. As a result, oil saving in China's road transport sector is vital to the whole nation. The co-integration method is developed to find a long-run relationship between oil consumption and affecting factors such as GDP, road condition, labor productivity and oil price, to estimate oil demand and to predict future oil saving potential in China's transport sector under different oil-saving scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis. Results show that under BAU condition, oil demand of China's road transport sector will reach 278.5 million ton of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2020. Oil saving potential will be 86 MTOE and 131 MTOE under moderate oil-saving scenario and advanced oil-saving scenario, respectively. This paper provides a reference to establishing oil saving policy for China's road transport sector. - Highlights: • We adopt the co-integration model to estimate oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector. • Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis. • GDP, ratio of classified highway, labor productivity and oil price are main factors affecting oil consumption. • Scenario analysis approach is applied to calculate oil saving potential under different energy saving scenarios. • Future policy for oil conservation in China's road transport sector is suggested

  1. Energy demand of the German and Dutch residential building stock under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olonscheck, Mady; Holsten, Anne; Walther, Carsten; Kropp, Jürgen P.

    2014-05-01

    In order to mitigate climate change, extraordinary measures are necessary in the future. The building sector, in particular, offers considerable potential for transformation to lower energy demand. On a national level, however, successful and far-reaching measures will likely be taken only if reliable estimates regarding future energy demand from different scenarios are available. The energy demand for space heating and cooling is determined by a combination of behavioral, climatic, constructional, and demographic factors. For two countries, namely Germany and the Netherlands, we analyze the combined effect of future climate and building stock changes as well as renovation measures on the future energy demand for room conditioning of residential buildings until 2060. We show how much the heating energy demand will decrease in the future and answer the question of whether the energy decrease will be exceeded by an increase in cooling energy demand. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we determine those influencing factors with the largest impact on the future energy demand from the building stock. Both countries have national targets regarding the reduction of the energy demand for the future. We provide relevant information concerning the annual renovation rates that are necessary to reach these targets. Retrofitting buildings is a win-win option as it not only helps to mitigate climate change and to lower the dependency on fossil fuels but also transforms the buildings stock into one that is better equipped for extreme temperatures that may occur more frequently with climate change. For the Netherlands, the study concentrates not only on the national, but also the provincial level, which should facilitate directed policy measures. Moreover, the analysis is done on a monthly basis in order to ascertain a deeper understanding of the future seasonal energy demand changes. Our approach constitutes an important first step towards deeper insights into the internal dynamics

  2. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rech, O.

    2004-01-01

    World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

  3. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rech, O

    2004-07-01

    World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

  4. The Demand for Oil and Energy in Developing Countries

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wolf, Jr., Charles; Relles, Daniel A; Navarro, Jaime

    1980-01-01

    ...? How will world demand be affected by the economic growth of the NOLDCs? In this report, the authors try to develop some reasonable forecasts of the range of NOLDC energy demands in the next 10 years...

  5. Decarbonising the energy intensive basic materials industry through electrification – Implications for future EU electricity demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lechtenböhmer, Stefan; Nilsson, Lars J.; Åhman, Max; Schneider, Clemens

    2016-01-01

    The need for deep decarbonisation in the energy intensive basic materials industry is increasingly recognised. In light of the vast future potential for renewable electricity the implications of electrifying the production of basic materials in the European Union is explored in a what-if thought-experiment. Production of steel, cement, glass, lime, petrochemicals, chlorine and ammonia required 125 TW-hours of electricity and 851 TW-hours of fossil fuels for energetic purposes and 671 TW-hours of fossil fuels as feedstock in 2010. The resulting carbon dioxide emissions were equivalent to 9% of total greenhouse gas emissions in EU28. A complete shift of the energy demand as well as the resource base of feedstocks to electricity would result in an electricity demand of 1713 TW-hours about 1200 TW-hours of which would be for producing hydrogen and hydrocarbons for feedstock and energy purposes. With increased material efficiency and some share of bio-based materials and biofuels the electricity demand can be much lower. Our analysis suggest that electrification of basic materials production is technically possible but could have major implications on how the industry and the electric systems interact. It also entails substantial changes in relative prices for electricity and hydrocarbon fuels. - Highlights: • Energy intensive basic materials industry has a high share in EU greenhouse gas emissions. • Decarbonising these industries is very important, but still relatively unexplored. • Electrification is possible regarding renewable energy resources and technologies. • Combination with energy and materials efficiency, biofuels and CCS is crucial. • Electrification needs very high amounts of electricity and strong policies.

  6. Modelling the Growth and Volatility in Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Jose Angelo Divino; Michael McAleer

    2009-01-01

    Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains. The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten Peruvian sites on UNESCO’s World Heritage List. For the potential negative impacts of mass tourism on the environment, and hence on future international tourism demand, to be managed appropriately require modelling growth rates and volatility adequately. The paper models the growth rate and volatility (or the variability...

  7. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-07-01

    Full Text Available An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

  8. Coal demand and trade - growth and structural change in a competitive world market; Popyt i handel weglem - wzrost i zmiany strukturalne na konkurencyjnym rynku swiatowym

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copley, C. [World Coal Institute, London (United Kingdom)

    2004-07-01

    The article presents an overview of global demand and trade in hard coal (steam and coking). Coal demand has grown steadily over the past thirty years but coal trade has and will continue to grow at a faster rate. Transport contributes a relatively high proportion to the final price. Demand growth is strongest in countries with limited resources while production is declining in some countries with mature mining industries. There is a shift to demand in Asian markets. Spot contracts and tender transactions are replacing long-term contracts and e-commerce is developing. Prices are expected to remain stable, relative to those of oil and gas. China is expected to remain the world's second longest supplier of coal. 9 refs., 13 figs.

  9. Medial Temporal Lobe Contributions to Episodic Future Thinking: Scene Construction or Future Projection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palombo, D J; Hayes, S M; Peterson, K M; Keane, M M; Verfaellie, M

    2018-02-01

    Previous research has shown that the medial temporal lobes (MTL) are more strongly engaged when individuals think about the future than about the present, leading to the suggestion that future projection drives MTL engagement. However, future thinking tasks often involve scene processing, leaving open the alternative possibility that scene-construction demands, rather than future projection, are responsible for the MTL differences observed in prior work. This study explores this alternative account. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we directly contrasted MTL activity in 1) high scene-construction and low scene-construction imagination conditions matched in future thinking demands and 2) future-oriented and present-oriented imagination conditions matched in scene-construction demands. Consistent with the alternative account, the MTL was more active for the high versus low scene-construction condition. By contrast, MTL differences were not observed when comparing the future versus present conditions. Moreover, the magnitude of MTL activation was associated with the extent to which participants imagined a scene but was not associated with the extent to which participants thought about the future. These findings help disambiguate which component processes of imagination specifically involve the MTL. Published by Oxford University Press 2016.

  10. Possible future roles for the high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR) in the community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-11-01

    Possible roles for HTR in different European nuclear energy strategies are examined from the standpoint of long-term uranium and capital conservation. Two different growth scenarios for European Community electrical energy demand have been assumed (fig. 1). Both curves have been developed from existing short-term forecasts and commitments already made by member states. The lower curve represents a realistic minimum development of per capita energy demand from 3.3 toe/y in 1975 to a ceiling of 6.1 toe/year in 2035 that still lies 30% below current U.S. consumption. Electricity is assumed to increase its share of the total energy market from 28% (1976) to 35%. The higher growth curve represents an increase in overall energy consumption to a level corresponding to 8 toe per capita per year, while the electricity share increase to 67% of the overall demand. It is appreciated that such an increase in the electricity share of the overall demand is unrealistic; its consideration in the present study must therefore be regarded as tending to explore an extreme case of electricity demand growth. A long-term view is taken to show how far future developments are affected by decisions taken in the medium-term. Saturation is assumed in order to force complete development of steady state conditions, in which the relationship between different reactors can be readily discerned and capital needs compared. At saturation uranium price and availability become unimportant in systems containing thermal and breeder reactors in symbiosis

  11. The development of sectoral final and basic energy demand in the Federal Republic of Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reents, H.

    1977-08-01

    The detailed knowledge of the demand structures and their determining factors is an important precondition for estimating the possible developments of future energy demand. In this report the past developments of the final and basic energy demand in the different demand categories private households, commercial sector, industry and transportation will be analyzed. The demonstrated relations are the basis for a final energy demand model. With the help of this model a scenario of the future development of the final energy demand in the different sectors will be built. It is the aim of this scenario to show, how alternative actions (insulation, gas-heat pump) influence the future development of the final energy demand. (orig.) [de

  12. A survey of oil product demand elasticities for developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahl, Carol

    1994-01-01

    As more and more developing countries join the ranks of the rich they will consume both more oil and higher percentage of the lighter products. To satisfy this growing demand oil production and refinery capacity that can provide the right quantity and mix of products must be developed. In a companion piece, Dahl (1993) found the total demand for oil to be price inelastic (-0.34) and income elastic (1.32) These elasticities can give information on the total quantity of oil that might be demanded, the total amount of distillation capacity that might be needed and the overall increases in product prices that might be necessary to choke off demand growth. However, with this overall growth in product demand, the more the shift towards the lighter portion of the barrel, the more complex the refinery and the greater the demand for downstream capital. To provide information on this mix in developing countries in the coming years, this paper surveys the available work on econometric demand elasticities by oil product. (author)

  13. Demand flexibility from residential heat pump

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhattarai, Bishnu Prasad; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna

    2014-01-01

    Demand response (DR) is considered as a potentially effective tool to compensate generation intermittency imposed by renewable sources. Further, DR can instigate to offer optimum asset utilization and to avoid or delay the need for new infrastructure investment. Being a sizable load together...... with high thermal time constant, heat pumps (HP) can offer a great deal of flexibility in the future intelligent grids especially to compensate fluctuating generation. However, the HP flexibility is highly dependent on thermal demand profile, namely hot water and space heating demand. This paper proposes...... price based scheduling followed by a demand dispatch based central control and a local voltage based adaptive control, to realize HP demand flexibility. Two-step control architecture, namely local primary control encompassed by the central coordinative control, is proposed to implement...

  14. Electric power industry in Korea: Past, present, and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hoesung.

    1994-01-01

    Electrical power is an indispensable tool in the industrialization of a developing country. An efficient, reliable source of electricity is a key factor in the establishment of a wide range of industries, and the supply of energy must keep pace with the increasing demand which economic growth creates in order for that growth to be sustained. As one of the most successful of all developing countries, Korea has registered impressive economic growth over the last decade, and it could be said that the rapid growth of the Korean economy would not have been possible without corresponding growth in the supply of electric power. Power producers in Korea, and elsewhere in Asia, are to be commended for successfully meeting the challenge of providing the necessary power to spur what some call an economic miracle. The future continues to hold great potential for participants in the electrical power industry, but a number of important challenges must be met in order for that potential to be fully realized. Demand for electricity continues to grow at a staggering rate, while concerns over the environmental impact of power generating facilities must not be ignored. As it becomes increasingly difficult to finance the rapid, and increasingly larger-scale expansion of the power industry through internal sources, the government must find resources to meet the growing demand at least cost. This will lead to important opportunities for the private sector. It is important, therefore, for those interested in participating in the power production industry and taking advantage of the newly emerging opportunities that lie in the Korean market, and elsewhere in Asia, to discuss the relevant issues and become informed of the specific conditions of each market

  15. Prediction of future urban growth using CA-Markov for urban sustainability planning of Banda Aceh, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achmad, A.; Irwansyah, M.; Ramli, I.

    2018-03-01

    Banda Aceh experienced rapid growth, both physically, socially, and economically, after the Tsunami that devastated it the end of December in 2004. Hence policy controls are needed to direct the pattern of urban growth to achieve sustainable development for the future. The purpose of this paper is to generate a growth model for Banda Aceh using the CA-Markov process. By knowing the changes in land use between 2005 and 2009 from the results of previous research, simulations for 2013, 2019 and 2029 using the application of Idrisi@Selva. CA-Markov models were prepared to determine the quantity of changes. The simulation results showed that, after the Tsunami, the City of Banda Aceh tended to grow towards the coast. For the control of the LUC, the Banda Aceh City government needs to prepare comprehensive and detailed maps and inventory of LUC for the city to provide basic data and information needed for monitoring and evaluation that can be done effectively and efficiently. An institution for monitoring and evaluation of the urban landscape and the LUC should be formed immediately. This institution could consist of representatives from government, academia, community leaders, the private sector and other experts. The findings from this study can be used to start the monitoring and evaluation of future urban growth. Especially for the coastal areas, the local government should immediately prepare special spatial coastal area plans to control growth in those areas and to ensure that the economic benefits from disaster mitigation and coastal protection are preserved. For the development of the city in the future, it is necessary to achieve a balance between economic development, and social welfare with environmental protection and disaster mitigation. iIt will become a big challenge to achieve sustainable development for the future.

  16. JSC Advanced Curation: Research and Development for Current Collections and Future Sample Return Mission Demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fries, M. D.; Allen, C. C.; Calaway, M. J.; Evans, C. A.; Stansbery, E. K.

    2015-01-01

    Curation of NASA's astromaterials sample collections is a demanding and evolving activity that supports valuable science from NASA missions for generations, long after the samples are returned to Earth. For example, NASA continues to loan hundreds of Apollo program samples to investigators every year and those samples are often analyzed using instruments that did not exist at the time of the Apollo missions themselves. The samples are curated in a manner that minimizes overall contamination, enabling clean, new high-sensitivity measurements and new science results over 40 years after their return to Earth. As our exploration of the Solar System progresses, upcoming and future NASA sample return missions will return new samples with stringent contamination control, sample environmental control, and Planetary Protection requirements. Therefore, an essential element of a healthy astromaterials curation program is a research and development (R&D) effort that characterizes and employs new technologies to maintain current collections and enable new missions - an Advanced Curation effort. JSC's Astromaterials Acquisition & Curation Office is continually performing Advanced Curation research, identifying and defining knowledge gaps about research, development, and validation/verification topics that are critical to support current and future NASA astromaterials sample collections. The following are highlighted knowledge gaps and research opportunities.

  17. Decomposing the impact of alternative technology sets on future carbon emissions growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Schu, Kathryn; Sue Wing, Ian; Calvin, Katherine

    2012-01-01

    What are the drivers of future global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions growth and how would the availability of key energy supply technologies change their relative importance? In this paper, we apply a novel index number decomposition technique to the results of a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model to quantify the influence of five factors on the growth of future carbon emissions: (1) growth in global economic activity; (2) shifts in the regional composition of gross world product; (3) shifts in the sectoral composition of regions' GDP; (4) changes in sectors' energy–output ratios; and (5) changes in the CO 2 intensity of energy sources. We elucidate how the relative importance of these factors changes in response to the imposition of a global carbon tax and alternative assumptions about the future availability of key energy supply technologies. Rising global economic activity and shifts in regional composition put upward pressure on emissions while changes in energy and emission intensity and the sectoral output mix have attenuating effects. A global emission tax that increases over time slows economic expansion and shifts the fuel mix, with the most pronounced impacts on China, India, and Russia. Limited availability of carbon capture and storage, nuclear, and hydroelectric generation all lead to upward shifts in the long-run marginal abatement cost curve, causing some countries to choose to pay the tax rather than abate. - Highlights: ► Index number decomposition is used to quantify the influence of five factors. ► The relative importance of these factors in response to alternative assumptions is measured. ► A global emission tax that increases over time slows economic expansion and shifts the fuel mix. ► Limited technology availability mean some countries to choose to pay the tax rather than abate.

  18. Heating and cooling energy demand and related emissions of the German residential building stock under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olonscheck, Mady; Holsten, Anne; Kropp, Juergen P.

    2011-01-01

    The housing sector is a major consumer of energy. Studies on the future energy demand under climate change which also take into account future changes of the building stock, renovation measures and heating systems are still lacking. We provide the first analysis of the combined effect of these four influencing factors on the future energy demand for room conditioning of residential buildings and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Germany until 2060. We show that the heating energy demand will decrease substantially in the future. This shift will mainly depend on the number of renovated buildings and climate change scenarios and only slightly on demographic changes. The future cooling energy demand will remain low in the future unless the amount of air conditioners strongly increases. As a strong change in the German energy mix is not expected, the future GHG emissions caused by heating will mainly depend on the energy demand for future heating. - Highlights: → The future heating energy demand of German residential buildings strongly decreases. → Extent of these changes mainly depends on the number of renovated buildings. → Demographic changes will only play a minor role. → Cooling energy demand will remain low in future but with large insecurities. → Germany's 2050 emission targets for the building stock are ambitious.

  19. Emissions from international shipping. Pt. 2: Impact of future technologies - scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyring, V.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2004-01-01

    We use the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future scenarios we first discuss upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements. We present geographically resolved emission inventory forecast scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions of future ship traffic demand and technological improvements. The future ship traffic demand scenario is mainly determined by the economic growth and the growth in world seaborne trade and distinguishes between different ship types. The annual growth rates of sea trade volumes and expected vessel traffic density is assumed to be smaller for today's most frequently sailed routes (in particular east-west-trades) than for those that are currently less frequently sailed (in particular south-north-trades). This leads to an adjustment of the number of ships sailing the different shipping routes in 2020 and even stronger in 2050. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in an estimated fuel consumption of 422 million metric tons (Mt) and 1226 Tg CO 2 emissions. For 2050 one scenario for fuel consumption assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by using future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption of 422 Mt and 1339 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate of 646 Mt and 1783 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced we present four different technology scenarios. (orig.)

  20. The CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand

    OpenAIRE

    Gotts, Nicholas Mark

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the design, implementation and testing of the CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand, and the first results of its use to produce estimates of future demand under a range of scenarios. CEDSS simulates direct domestic energy demand at within communities of approximately 200 households. The scenarios explored differ in the economic conditions assumed, and policy measures adopted at national level.

  1. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  2. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  3. The energy supply and demand outlook in the Asia-Pacific region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesharaki, Fereidun; Yamaguchi, Nancy

    1992-01-01

    The 1980s witnessed spectacular growth rates in the Asia-Pacific region, the rising economic power of Japan, an unprecedented opening of China's economy, the emergence of the ''Four Tigers'' or the ''Little Dragons'' (Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong), a rapid growth of exports from the region - in short, remarkable economic success and an increase in entrepreneurialism and the free-market philosophy. Even the United States, which historically has been Atlantic-oriented, sat up and took notice. While the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption is not necessarily one-to-one, energy is a required input for economic activity and trade. Energy demand growth in the Asia-Pacific region has been accordingly rapid. At this point in history, oil and economic growth are so interrelated that changes in one invariably have major repercussions on the other. During the coming decade, continued economic growth is foreseen for the Asia-Pacific region, coupled with the fastest rate of oil demand growth of any region on Earth. Pressure will come to bear on the regional oil and gas markets, since demand growth will take place concurrently with a decline in the availability of local, low-sulphur crudes. The region will become even more dependent on imports of Middle Eastern crude, which will result in a higher-sulphur crude slate. Moreover, we anticipate that the existing and planned refinery complexes will lack the capacity and the flexibility to fully satisfy product demand. The consequence will be a higher level of refined product imports. (author)

  4. The energy supply and demand outlook in the Asia-Pacific region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fesharaki, Fereidun; Yamaguchi, Nancy (East-West Centre, Honolulu, Hawaii (US))

    The 1980s witnessed spectacular growth rates in the Asia-Pacific region, the rising economic power of Japan, an unprecedented opening of China's economy, the emergence of the ''Four Tigers'' or the ''Little Dragons'' (Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong), a rapid growth of exports from the region - in short, remarkable economic success and an increase in entrepreneurialism and the free-market philosophy. Even the United States, which historically has been Atlantic-oriented, sat up and took notice. While the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption is not necessarily one-to-one, energy is a required input for economic activity and trade. Energy demand growth in the Asia-Pacific region has been accordingly rapid. At this point in history, oil and economic growth are so interrelated that changes in one invariably have major repercussions on the other. During the coming decade, continued economic growth is foreseen for the Asia-Pacific region, coupled with the fastest rate of oil demand growth of any region on Earth. Pressure will come to bear on the regional oil and gas markets, since demand growth will take place concurrently with a decline in the availability of local, low-sulphur crudes. The region will become even more dependent on imports of Middle Eastern crude, which will result in a higher-sulphur crude slate. Moreover, we anticipate that the existing and planned refinery complexes will lack the capacity and the flexibility to fully satisfy product demand. The consequence will be a higher level of refined product imports. (author).

  5. Demand Side Management: An approach to peak load smoothing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Prachi

    A preliminary national-level analysis was conducted to determine whether Demand Side Management (DSM) programs introduced by electric utilities since 1992 have made any progress towards their stated goal of reducing peak load demand. Estimates implied that DSM has a very small effect on peak load reduction and there is substantial regional and end-user variability. A limited scholarly literature on DSM also provides evidence in support of a positive effect of demand response programs. Yet, none of these studies examine the question of how DSM affects peak load at the micro-level by influencing end-users' response to prices. After nearly three decades of experience with DSM, controversy remains over how effective these programs have been. This dissertation considers regional analyses that explore both demand-side solutions and supply-side interventions. On the demand side, models are estimated to provide in-depth evidence of end-user consumption patterns for each North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region, helping to identify sectors in regions that have made a substantial contribution to peak load reduction. The empirical evidence supports the initial hypothesis that there is substantial regional and end-user variability of reductions in peak demand. These results are quite robust in rapidly-urbanizing regions, where air conditioning and lighting load is substantially higher, and regions where the summer peak is more pronounced than the winter peak. It is also evident from the regional experiences that active government involvement, as shaped by state regulations in the last few years, has been successful in promoting DSM programs, and perhaps for the same reason we witness an uptick in peak load reductions in the years 2008 and 2009. On the supply side, we estimate the effectiveness of DSM programs by analyzing the growth of capacity margin with the introduction of DSM programs. The results indicate that DSM has been successful in offsetting the

  6. The Demand for Rental Homes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skak, Morten

    2007-01-01

    For a number of years, homeownership rates have been increasing along with increasing GDP per capita in most European countries, but not in Denmark after 2000. Why have increased real incomes kept the demand for rental housing up in Denmark? The present paper takes a closer look at the Danish dev...... traits found on the Danish housing market and the technique employed for prediction are of interest to housing researchers in other countries.......For a number of years, homeownership rates have been increasing along with increasing GDP per capita in most European countries, but not in Denmark after 2000. Why have increased real incomes kept the demand for rental housing up in Denmark? The present paper takes a closer look at the Danish...... development, and gives some indications of the future demand for rental housing in Denmark. The results indicate a future stagnant rental demand kept up by an increasing share of persons of old age and young persons undergoing education, and thus a rising homeownership rate. It is believed that the structural...

  7. The Demand for Tertiary Education--An Australian Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Miles G.

    1984-01-01

    The demand for higher education in Australia is examined, and several hypotheses concerning the estimated effect of youth unemployment and the traditional human capital variables of the opportunity cost of education and expected future returns are evaluated using a previously developed demand model. (Author/MSE)

  8. The current and future state of companion diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Amit; Ressler, Dan; Snyder, Glenn

    2015-01-01

    Companion diagnostics are an indispensable part of personalized medicine and will likely continue to rapidly increase in number and application to disease areas. The first companion diagnostics were launched in the 1980s and in the face of significant initial skepticism from drug developers as to whether segmenting a drug’s market through a diagnostic was advisable. The commercial success of drugs such as Herceptin® (trastuzumab) and Gleevec® (imatinib), which both require testing with companion diagnostics before they can be prescribed, has moved the entire companion diagnostic field forward. From an initial start of a handful of oncology drugs with corresponding diagnostics, the field has expanded to include multiple therapeutic areas, and the number of combinations has grown by 12-fold. Based on drugs in clinical trials, the rapid growth will likely continue for the foreseeable future. This expansion of companion diagnostics will also have a global component as markets in Europe will evolve in a similar but not identical pattern as the US. One of the greatest challenges to future growth in companion diagnostics is aligning the incentives of all stakeholders. A major driver of growth will continue to be the economic incentives for drug developers to pair their products with diagnostics. However, diagnostic companies are caught between the conflicting demands of two major stakeholders, pharmaceutical companies on one hand and payers/providers on the other. Regulators are also becoming more demanding in aligning development time lines between drugs and diagnostics. In order to survive and prosper, diagnostic companies will need to think more broadly about companion diagnostics than the historical match between a specific drug and a single diagnostic. They will also have to continue the process of consolidation and global expansion that the industry has already begun. Despite these potential obstacles, companion diagnostics have become one of the hottest areas

  9. Effects of utility demand-side management programs on uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirst, E.

    1994-01-01

    Electric utilities face a variety of uncertainties that complicate their long-term resource planning. These uncertainties include future economic and load growths, fuel prices, environmental and economic regulations, performance of existing power plants, cost and availability of purchased power, and the costs and performance of new demand and supply resources. As utilities increasingly turn to demand-side management (DSM) programs to provide resources, it becomes more important to analyze the interactions between these programs and the uncertainties facing utilities. This paper uses a dynamic planning model to quantify the uncertainty effects of supply-only vs DSM + supply resource portfolios. The analysis considers four sets of uncertainties: economic growth, fuel prices, the costs to build new power plants, and the costs to operate DSM programs. The two types of portfolios are tested against these four sets of uncertainties for the period 1990 to 2010. Sensitivity, scenario, and worst-case analysis methods are used. The sensitivity analyses show that the DSM + supply resource portfolio is less sensitive to unanticipated changes in economic growth, fuel prices, and power-plant construction costs than is the supply-only portfolio. The supply-only resource mix is better only with respect to uncertainties about the costs of DSM programs. The base-case analysis shows that including DSM programs in the utility's resource portfolio reduces the net present value of revenue requirements (NPV-RR) by 490 million dollars. The scenario-analysis results show an additional 30 million dollars (6%) in benefits associated with reduction in these uncertainties. In the worst-case analysis, the DSM + supply portfolio again reduces the cost penalty associated with guessing wrong for both cases, when the utility plans for high needs and learns it has low needs and vice versa. 20 refs

  10. Modeling future power plant location patterns. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eagles, T.W.; Cohon, J.L.; ReVelle, C.

    1979-04-01

    The locations of future energy facilities must be specified to assess the potential environmental impact of those facilities. A computer model was developed to generate probable locations for the energy facilities needed to meet postulated future energy requirements. The model is designed to cover a very large geographical region. The regional demand for baseload electric generating capacity associated with a postulated demand growth rate over any desired time horizon is specified by the user as an input to the model. The model uses linear programming to select the most probable locations within the region, based on physical and political factors. The linear program is multi-objective, with four objective functions based on transmission, coal supply, population proximity, and water supply considerations. Minimizing each objective function leads to a distinct set of locations. The user can select the objective function or weighted combination of objective functions most appropriate to his interest. Users with disparate interests can use the model to see the locational changes which result from varying weighting of the objective functions. The model has been implemented in a six-state mid-Atlantic region. The year 2000 was chosen as the study year, and a test scenario postulating 2.25% growth in baseload generating capacity between 1977 and 2000 was chosen. The scenario stipulatedthat this capacity be 50% nuclear and 50% coal-fired. Initial utility reaction indicates the objective based on transmission costs is most important for such a large-scale analysis

  11. Future independent power generation and implications for instruments and controls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, J.H.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that the independent power producers market is comprised of cogeneration, small power generation, and independent power production (IPP) segments. Shortfalls in future electric supply are expected to lead to significant growth in this market. The opportunities for instruments and controls will shift from traditional electric utility applications to the independent power market with a more diverse set of needs. Importance will be placed on system reliability, quality of power and increased demand for clean kWh

  12. Future demand in electrical power and meeting this demand, in particular with the aid of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-07-01

    As a part of the research program in question, the study deals with meeting the electrical power demand in the FRG until the year 2000 in the best possible way with regard to costs, and evaluating the long-term technical, ecological, and economical effects resulting thereof. With the aid of a model, the construction of additional plants and the use of the FRG's power plant network, always applying economical criteria, are investigated while allowing for adequate assurance of supply. It becomes obvious that the power plants and fuels available influence a 25-year planning period. In the year 2000, nuclear energy will play a dominating role in meeting the demand, the conventional thermal power plants will be used more for coping with the above-average medium laods, while peak loads will be met, above all, by pump storage stations. (UA) [de

  13. Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, E.

    2012-06-01

    Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

  14. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE INCREASING DEMAND FOR ENERGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perticas Diana

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available During human society’s development on large geographical areas, a series of cultural systems have appeared and have determined a certain approach concerning the environment and social relations. These systems of thought persist even today and they are strongly influenced by individuals’ thinking and approaches in that society, thing that requires a specific approach for the implementation of these relatively new concepts (e.g. sustainable development, pollution, ecological approaches on social life. Furthermore, the continuous growth of the demand for energy in the world is seen as an alarm. Between 1970 and 1997 world energy consumption has almost doubled and it is projected to grow by about 57% during 2004-2030 and the thing which should be mentioned is that with the increasing energy demand, pollution levels will increase too. But we must not forget that electric and thermal power represent one of the basic needs of mankind, and when the fulfilment of this need started to affect the climate and implicitly human health this problem turned into a hardly manageable one. We must not forget that the world’s population is growing rapidly and the level of pollution per capita increased we might even say in direct proportion. In many cases, increased pollution has its explanation in the growing number of individuals at global level and also the increasing needs, desires, aspirations, standard of living, of these. This paper intends to objectively analyse the interconnections that arise between the environment and the growth of the demand for energy, emphasizing the devastating effects of pollution created by burning fossil fuels in order to obtain electric and thermal power as well as the current and future possibilities for the replacement of these energy reserves with renewable energy reserves. The whole analysis will be accompanied by case studies and will follow strictly imposed goals by sustainable development.

  15. Forecasting urban water demand: A meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebri, Maamar

    2016-12-01

    Water managers and planners require accurate water demand forecasts over the short-, medium- and long-term for many purposes. These range from assessing water supply needs over spatial and temporal patterns to optimizing future investments and planning future allocations across competing sectors. This study surveys the empirical literature on the urban water demand forecasting using the meta-analytical approach. Specifically, using more than 600 estimates, a meta-regression analysis is conducted to identify explanations of cross-studies variation in accuracy of urban water demand forecasting. Our study finds that accuracy depends significantly on study characteristics, including demand periodicity, modeling method, forecasting horizon, model specification and sample size. The meta-regression results remain robust to different estimators employed as well as to a series of sensitivity checks performed. The importance of these findings lies in the conclusions and implications drawn out for regulators and policymakers and for academics alike. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Demand-side management: The perspective of a combination utility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Packard, C.P.

    1993-01-01

    During the 1980's, Baltimore Gas ampersand Electric (BG ampersand E) met part of the rapid growth in demand for electricity in its service territory by implementing cost-effective demand-side management (DSM) programs--specifically, peak shaving and load shifting strategies. BG ampersand E's focus in the 1990's has been expanded to include all DSM options with an increasing emphasis on those which promote overall 1 energy efficiency or strategic conservation. This change in focus is being driven by Federal legislation, state regulatory requirements and the perceived potential benefits for both the customer and the Company. Current activities related to DSM include involvement in a Collaborative Process to design cost-effective electric and gas conservation programs for all customer classes--low-income, residential, commercial and industrial. Program design consists of four steps: (1) data gathering and technology assessment; (2) development of program concepts; (3) detailed program design and (4) monitoring and evaluation. Significant reductions in the projected peaks as well as in sales in future years are the anticipated results of our efforts. As a combination utility, unique opportunities and challenges face BG ampersand E: fuel switching, eligibility of non-full requirements customers, and energy options for customers

  17. Canada's uranium supply: a look to the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, R.W.

    1987-01-01

    The future growth of nuclear power is not likely to be constrained by the supply of uranium. There are enough known uranium resources in Canada and other producing countries to supply anticipated programmes well into the next century, at prices that should not affect the competitive position of nuclear power. There is also considerable potential for further discoveries. Supply and demand should be entering a period of greater stability. Market incentives will be required to ensure that new production is available on a timely basis. Canada, the world's leading producer and exporter of uranium, has the resources, the technical skills, the geological potential and the political will to continue as a reliable supplier of uranium for the foreseeable future. (author)

  18. THE PRICE OF HIGHER EDUCATION AND INDIVIDUAL DEMAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filiz Golpek

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The rise in the living standards in most of the world, the rise in population and schooling rates have increased the demand for higher education. The attribution of semi public property becomes determinant to decide whom will provide the supply and the production in semi public properties is realized by means of a supply and demand mechanism. The supply of higher education is mostly secured in accordance with the public demand as well as the resources available.  In addition, the fact that higher education services have produced significant benefits has led to over demand. This situation relates to a simple economic rule that a commodity or service which costs almost nothing or little will increase until the mariginal benefit of its demand equals to 0 or almost 0. However, the educational supply and demand is difficult to identify in accordance to the supply and demand and balance of price as observed in the economic theory. The high profits that would be attracted in the future are significant factors influencing individual’s decisions for investment. The decision for investment depends on the possible return in the future, the cost of investment, and the current interest rates. Higher education with investment purposes is influenced by these three factors and higher education is demanded more and more by individuals on the expectation that they will gain high profits In theory, it is accepted that the basic factors identifying the demand for higher education are in harmony with empirical research results in several countries including Turkey.

  19. Implications of individual growth status on the future sex of the European eel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmgren, K.; Mosegaard, Henrik

    1996-01-01

    than females. Males also had lower length at weight than females, even in the smallest weight groups. Early growth status may influence the future sex of undifferentiated eels, but other approaches are needed for distinction between cause and effect. (C) 1996 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles....

  20. Analysis of the Syrian long-term energy and electricity demand projection using the end-use methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hainoun, A.; Seif-Eldin, M.K.; Almoustafa, S.

    2006-01-01

    A comprehensive analysis of the possible future long-term development of Syrian energy and electricity demand covering the period 1999-2030 is presented. The analysis was conducted using the IAEA's model MAED, which relies upon the end-use approach. This model has been validated during the last two decades through the successful application in many developing countries, even those having partial market economy and energy subsidy. Starting from the base year, final energy consumption distributed by energy forms and consumption sectors, the future energy and electricity demand has been projected according to three different scenarios reflecting the possible future demographic, socio-economic and technological development of the country. These scenarios are constructed to cover a plausible range, in which future evolution factors affecting energy demand are expected to lie. The first is a high economy scenario (HS) representing the reference case, which is characterized by high gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (average annual about 6%) and moderate improved technologies in the various consumption sectors. The second is an energy efficiency scenario (ES), which is identical to HS in all main parameters except these relating to the efficiency improvement and conservation measures. Here, high technology improvement and more effective conservation measures in all consumption sectors are proposed and the role of solar to substitute fossil energy for heating purposes is considered effectively. The third is a low economy scenario (LS) with low GDP growth rate (average annual about 3.5%) and less technology improvement in the consumption sectors. As a consequence, the improvement in the energy efficiency is low and the influence of conservation measures is less effective. Starting from about 10.5mtoe final energy in the base year, the analysis shows that the projected energy demand will grow annually at average rates of 5%, 4.5% and 3% for the HS, ES and LS

  1. Probabilistic Quantification of Potentially Flexible Residential Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kouzelis, Konstantinos; Mendaza, Iker Diaz de Cerio; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2014-01-01

    The balancing of power systems with high penetration of renewable energy is a serious challenge to be faced in the near future. One of the possible solutions, recently capturing a lot of attention, is demand response. Demand response can only be achieved by power consumers holding loads which allow...... them to modify their normal power consumption pattern, namely flexible consumers. However flexibility, despite being constantly mentioned, is usually not properly defined and even rarer quantified. This manuscript introduces a methodology to identify and quantify potentially flexible demand...

  2. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.

    2004-01-01

    Following the military intervention in Iraq, it is taking longer than expected for Iraqi exports to make a comeback on the market. Demand is sustained by economic growth in China and in the United States. OPEC is modulating production to prevent inventory build-up. Prices have stayed high despite increased production by non-OPEC countries, especially Russia. (author)

  3. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Babusiaux, D

    2004-07-01

    Following the military intervention in Iraq, it is taking longer than expected for Iraqi exports to make a comeback on the market. Demand is sustained by economic growth in China and in the United States. OPEC is modulating production to prevent inventory build-up. Prices have stayed high despite increased production by non-OPEC countries, especially Russia. (author)

  4. Non-OPEC future production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, C.J.

    1997-01-01

    Recent optimistic predictions of future growth in non-OPEC oil production have failed to discuss the underlying resource base. Peak discovery occurred some time ago and exploration has been sufficiently extensive to indicate that no new major provinces remain undetected. Advances in technology are likely only to influence production from the smaller and more difficult fields and will not have much effect globally. The main impact of improved technology is to increase the production rate and accelerate depletion thereby. The recent increasing trend in non-OPEC production cannot be extrapolated indefinitely. It is argued that Gulf OPEC share of world production will rise to 30% before the end of the century in response to rising demand thus setting the scene for another oil price shock. (UK)

  5. Systems of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    The world population growth will impact largely on the energy and electric power demand in the future. Facing the decrease of the hydrocarbons reserves, the international community decided to work together to develop a new generation of nuclear systems. In this context, coordinated researches are realized first with a short dated objective on the development of innovations for PWR type reactors and second with a middle dated on the development of new systems in an international framework (essentially Generation IV). Theses research programs are presented below. The first part is devoted to the different generation of reactors (I to IV) and to the third generation; the second part deals with the international framework of the researches, the french strategy and the european dimension. (A.L.B.)

  6. Characteristics and trends of China's oil demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Haibo

    2010-09-15

    Based on historical analysis of Chinese oil consumption from 1980 to 2008, the author develops an econometric modeling - Medium and Long-term Chinese Oil Demand Forecast Model. Results shows that, Chinese oil demand will be 632 MT in 2020 without consideration of substitutions, and the annual growth rate will be 4.2%, much slower than before. The demand ratio of diesel to gasoline will decline, while kerosene demand will grow faster. If new energy vehicles (NGV and electric vehicles, etc.) develop rapidly and industrial fuel-oil demand is substituted effectively, about 23 million tons of oil could be saved.

  7. Persistent high job demands and reactivity to mental stress predict future ambulatory blood pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steptoe, A; Cropley, M

    2000-05-01

    To test the hypothesis that work stress (persistent high job demands over 1 year) in combination with high reactivity to mental stress predict ambulatory blood pressure. Assessment of cardiovascular responses to standardized behavioural tasks, job demands, and ambulatory blood pressure over a working day and evening after 12 months. We studied 81 school teachers (26 men, 55 women), 36 of whom experienced persistent high job demands over 1 year, while 45 reported lower job demands. Participants were divided on the basis of high and low job demands, and high and low systolic pressure reactions to an uncontrollable stress task. Blood pressure and concurrent physical activity were monitored using ambulatory apparatus from 0900 to 2230 h on a working day. Cardiovascular stress reactivity was associated with waist/hip ratio. Systolic and diastolic pressure during the working day were greater in high job demand participants who were stress reactive than in other groups, after adjustment for age, baseline blood pressure, body mass index and negative affectivity. The difference was not accounted for by variations in physical activity. Cardiovascular stress reactivity and sustained psychosocial stress may act in concert to increase cardiovascular risk in susceptible individuals.

  8. The Job Demands?Resources model: Challenges for future research

    OpenAIRE

    Demerouti, Eva; Bakke, Arnold B.

    2011-01-01

    textabstractMotivation: The motivation of this overview is to present the state of the art of Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model whilst integrating the various contributions to the special issue. Research purpose: To provide an overview of the JD-R model, which incorporates many possible working conditions and focuses on both negative and positive indicators of employee well-being. Moreover, the studies of the special issue were introduced. Research design: Qualitative and quantitative studie...

  9. Fundamental Travel Demand Model Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanssen, Joel

    2010-01-01

    Instances of transportation models are abundant and detailed "how to" instruction is available in the form of transportation software help documentation. The purpose of this paper is to look at the fundamental inputs required to build a transportation model by developing an example passenger travel demand model. The example model reduces the scale to a manageable size for the purpose of illustrating the data collection and analysis required before the first step of the model begins. This aspect of the model development would not reasonably be discussed in software help documentation (it is assumed the model developer comes prepared). Recommendations are derived from the example passenger travel demand model to suggest future work regarding the data collection and analysis required for a freight travel demand model.

  10. Multiple policies to enhance prescribing efficiency for established medicines in Europe with a particular focus on demand-side measures: findings and future implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian eGodman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The appreciable growth in pharmaceutical expenditure has resulted in multiple initiatives across Europe to lower generic prices and enhance their utilisation. However, considerable variation in their use and prices. Objective: Assess the influence of multiple supply and demand-side initiatives across Europe for established medicines to enhance prescribing efficiency before a decision to prescribe a particular medicine. Subsequently utilise the findings to suggest potential future initiatives that countries could consider. Method: Analysis of different methodologies involving cross national and single country retrospective observational studies on reimbursed use and expenditure of PPIs, statins and renin-angiotensin inhibitor drugs among European countries. Results: Nature and intensity of the various initiatives appreciably influenced prescribing behaviour and expenditure, e.g. multiple measures resulted in reimbursed expenditure for PPIs in Scotland in 2010 56% below 2001 levels despite a 3 fold increase in utilisation and in the Netherlands, PPI expenditure fell by 58% in 2010 vs. 2000 despite a 3-fold increase in utilisation. A similarly picture was seen with prescribing restrictions, i.e. (i more aggressive follow-up of prescribing restrictions for patented statins and ARBs resulted in a greater reduction in the utilisation of patented statins in Austria vs. Norway and lower utilisation of patented ARBs vs. generic ACEIs in Croatia than Austria. However, limited impact of restrictions on esomeprazole in Norway with the first prescription or recommendation in hospital where restrictions do not apply. Similar findings when generic losartan became available in Western Europe. Conclusions: Multiple demand-side measures are needed to influence prescribing patterns. When combined with supply-side measures, activities can realise appreciable savings. Health authorities cannot rely on a ‘spill over’ effect between classes to affect

  11. The energy demand in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoffers, M.J.

    1992-01-01

    Based on three scenarios for the global and economic developments the CPB (Dutch Central Planning Bureau) made projections of the Dutch energy demand to the year 2015. Factors of interest are the development of the energy prices, sectoral analysis of the economic growth and the government policy. The scenarios are Balanced Growth, characterized by a strong economic growth, sustainable economic development, and a dynamic technological development, the Global Shift scenario, characterized by a very dynamic technological development, and the European Renaissance scenario with a less dynamic development. 2 ills., 5 tabs., 2 refs

  12. Modeling and managing urban water demand through smart meters: Benefits and challenges from current research and emerging trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cominola, A.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Piga, D.; Rizzoli, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    Urban population growth, climate and land use change are expected to boost residential water demand in urban contexts in the next decades. In such a context, developing suitable demand-side management strategies is essential to meet future water demands, pursue water savings, and reduce the costs for water utilities. Yet, the effectiveness of water demand management strategies (WDMS) relies on our understanding of water consumers' behavior, their consumption habits, and the water use drivers. While low spatial and temporal resolution water consumption data, as traditionally gathered for billing purposes, hardly support this understanding, the advent of high-resolution, smart metering technologies allowed for quasi real-time monitoring water consumption at the single household level. This, in turn, is advancing our ability in characterizing consumers' behavior, modeling, and designing user-oriented residential water demand management strategies. Several water smart metering programs have been rolled-out in the last two decades worldwide, addressing one or more of the following water demand management phases: (i) data gathering, (ii) water end-uses characterization, (iii) user modeling, (iv) design and implementation of personalized WDMS. Moreover, the number of research studies in this domain is quickly increasing and big economic investments are currently being devoted worldwide to smart metering programs. With this work, we contribute the first comprehensive review of more than 100 experiences in the field of residential water demand modeling and management, and we propose a general framework for their classification. We revise consolidated practices, identify emerging trends and highlight the challenges and opportunities for future developments given by the use of smart meters advancing residential water demand management. Our analysis of the status quo of smart urban water demand management research and market constitutes a structured collection of information

  13. China’s primary energy demands in 2020: Predictions from an MPSO–RBF estimation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Shiwei; Wei Yiming; Wang Ke

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A Mix-encoding PSO and RBF network-based energy demand forecasting model is proposed. ► The proposed model has simpler structure and smaller estimated errors than other ANN models. ► China’s energy demand could reach 6.25 billion, 4.16 billion, and 5.29 billion tons tce. ► China’s energy efficiency in 2020 will increase by more than 30% compared with 2009. - Abstract: In the present study, a Mix-encoding Particle Swarm Optimization and Radial Basis Function (MPSO–RBF) network-based energy demand forecasting model is proposed and applied to forecast China’s energy consumption until 2020. The energy demand is analyzed for the period from 1980 to 2009 based on GDP, population, proportion of industry in GDP, urbanization rate, and share of coal energy. The results reveal that the proposed MPSO–RBF based model has fewer hidden nodes and smaller estimated errors compared with other ANN-based estimation models. The average annual growth of China’s energy demand will be 6.70%, 2.81%, and 5.08% for the period between 2010 and 2020 in three scenarios and could reach 6.25 billion, 4.16 billion, and 5.29 billion tons coal equivalent in 2020. Regardless of future scenarios, China’s energy efficiency in 2020 will increase by more than 30% compared with 2009.

  14. Sustainable de-growth: Mapping the context, criticisms and future prospects of an emergent paradigm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Alier, Joan [Department of Economics and Economic History, Universidad Autonoma de Barcelona (Spain); Pascual, Unai [Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge (United Kingdom); Vivien, Franck-Dominique [Department of Economics, Universite de Reims Champagne Ardenne (France); Zaccai, Edwin [Institute for Environmental Management and Land Planning, Universite Libre de Bruxelles (Belgium)

    2010-07-15

    'Sustainable de-growth' is both a concept and a social-grassroots (Northern) movement with its origins in the fields of ecological economics, social ecology, economic anthropology and environmental and social activist groups. This paper introduces the concept of sustainable de-growth by mapping some of the main intellectual influences from these fields, with special focus on the Francophone and Anglophone thinking about this emergent notion. We propose hypotheses pertaining to the appeal of sustainable de-growth, and compare it to the messages enclosed within the dominant sustainable development idea. We scrutinize the theses, contradictions, and consequences of sustainable de-growth thinking as it is currently being shaped by a heterogeneous body of literature and as it interacts with an ample and growing corpus of social movements. We also discuss possible future paths for the de-growth movement compared to the apparent weakening of the sustainable development paradigm. (author)

  15. Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Zhao; Østergaard, Jacob; Togeby, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    Relying on generation side alone is deemed insufficient to fulfill the system balancing needs for future Danish power system, where a 50% wind penetration is outlined by the government for year 2025. This paper investigates using the electricity demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) as a new...... balancing measure, which has a high potential and can provide many advantages. Firstly, the background of the research is reviewed, including conventional power system reserves and the electricity demand side potentials. Subsequently, the control logics and corresponding design considerations for the DFR...

  16. Petroleum labour market information supply demand analysis 2009-2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-03-01

    Since 2006, the petroleum industry has been interested in collaboration to determine labour demand and supply/demand gaps for the upstream petroleum industry. In 2006, the petroleum industry experienced strong employment growth and was having difficulty finding workers. Comprehensive, up-to-date labour market information and analysis are the key foundation for addressing labour supply/demand issues. This document presented labour market information on the petroleum industry in order to inform company retention and recruitment offices; government departments involved in development of labour market policies and programs; education and training institutions; guidance counsellors, employment centres and organizations that work with youth and labour supply pools; and job seekers. Specific topics that were discussed included two industry scenarios (growth and base case) in determining the petroleum industry's medium-and long-term employment needs; labour supply/demand considerations for the industry as a whole and an industry-wide cost management; and an analysis of exploration and production, oil sands, services, and pipeline sectors to 2020. It was concluded that while new employment is not expected to lead to labour shortages within the pipeline sector, attrition due to requirements almost certainly would. In the growth scenario, it is likely the pipeline sector will be challenged by competition from the other petroleum industry sectors. tabs., figs., appendices.

  17. Petroleum labour market information supply demand analysis 2009-2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-03-15

    Since 2006, the petroleum industry has been interested in collaboration to determine labour demand and supply/demand gaps for the upstream petroleum industry. In 2006, the petroleum industry experienced strong employment growth and was having difficulty finding workers. Comprehensive, up-to-date labour market information and analysis are the key foundation for addressing labour supply/demand issues. This document presented labour market information on the petroleum industry in order to inform company retention and recruitment offices; government departments involved in development of labour market policies and programs; education and training institutions; guidance counsellors, employment centres and organizations that work with youth and labour supply pools; and job seekers. Specific topics that were discussed included two industry scenarios (growth and base case) in determining the petroleum industry's medium-and long-term employment needs; labour supply/demand considerations for the industry as a whole and an industry-wide cost management; and an analysis of exploration and production, oil sands, services, and pipeline sectors to 2020. It was concluded that while new employment is not expected to lead to labour shortages within the pipeline sector, attrition due to requirements almost certainly would. In the growth scenario, it is likely the pipeline sector will be challenged by competition from the other petroleum industry sectors. tabs., figs., appendices.

  18. LPG world supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmes, Ch.

    2008-01-01

    Over the course of this decade, the global LPG market has moved from being tight, where supply barely exceeded non-price sensitive demand, to the current market situation where supply growth has outstripped demand growth to such an extent that current fundamentals suggest that considerable length will prevail in the market over the near term. As is the case for many other energy commodity markets, the LPG industry has experienced a considerable transformation over the last five years with many new LPG supply projects coming on-stream and demand growth in many developing markets slowing in response to higher energy prices. The near term challenge for LPG producers will be securing outlets for output as the market becomes increasingly oversupplied. With expanding LPG supply and a worldwide tightness in the naphtha market, it is expected that petrochemical consumers will favor relatively low priced LPG over naphtha and the resulting increase in LPG cracking rates will go some way to reducing the expected supply surplus. However, the timing of several new LPG supply projects and the start-up of LPG-based petrochemical plants in the Middle-East are expected to impact global LPG trade and pricing over the next few years. Thus, at this point in time, the global LPG market has a high degree of uncertainty with questions remaining over the impact of high energy (and LPG) prices on traditional and developing market demand, the timing of new supply projects and the combined effect of these two factors on international LPG prices. World LPG production has been rising in nearly every region of the world over the last few years and totaled about 229 million tons in 2007, which is some 30 million tons per year higher than in 2000. The exception is North America which accounts for the largest share of global LPG supply at about 24% but production there has remained relatively flat in recent years. Strong LPG production growth in the Middle-East which contributed to about 19% of

  19. Demand side management. Benefits and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strbac, Goran

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, the major benefits and challenges of electricity demand side management (DSM) are discussed in the context of the UK electricity system. The relatively low utilisation of generation and networks (of about 50%) means that there is significant scope for DSM to contribute to increasing the efficiency of the system investment. The importance of the diversity of electricity load is discussed and the negative effects of DSM on load diversity illustrated. Ageing assets, the growth in renewable and other low-carbon generation technologies and advances in information and communication technologies are identified as major additional drivers that could lead to wider applications of DSM in the medium term. Potential benefits of DSM are discussed in the context of generation and of transmission and distribution networks. The provision of back-up capacity by generation may not be efficient as it will be needed relatively infrequently, and DSM may be better placed to support security. We also present an analysis of the value of DSM in balancing generation and demand in a future UK electricity system with significant variable renewable generation. We give a number of reasons for the relatively slow uptake of DSM, particularly in the residential, commercial and small business sectors. They include a lack of metering, information and communication infrastructure, lack of understanding of the benefits of DSM, problems with the competitiveness of DSM when compared with traditional approaches, an increase in the complexity of system operation and inappropriate market incentives. (author)

  20. Reevaluation of Turkey's hydropower potential and electric energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yueksek, Omer

    2008-01-01

    This paper deals with Turkey's hydropower potential and its long-term electric energy demand predictions. In the paper, at first, Turkey's energy sources are briefly reviewed. Then, hydropower potential is analyzed and it has been concluded that Turkey's annual economically feasible hydropower potential is about 188 TWh, nearly 47% greater than the previous estimation figures of 128 TWh. A review on previous prediction models for Turkey's long-term electric energy demand is presented. In order to predict the future demand, new increment ratio scenarios, which depend on both observed data and future predictions of population, energy consumption per capita and total energy consumption, are developed. The results of 11 prediction models are compared and analyzed. It is concluded that Turkey's annual electric energy demand predictions in 2010, 2015 and 2020 vary between 222 and 242 (average 233) TWh; 302 and 356 (average 334) TWh; and 440 and 514 (average 476) TWh, respectively. A discussion on the role of hydropower in meeting long-term demand is also included in the paper and it has been predicted that hydropower can meet 25-35% of Turkey's electric energy demand in 2020

  1. Potentials for energy savings and long term energy demand of Croatian households sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pukšec, Tomislav; Vad Mathiesen, Brian; Duić, Neven

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Long term energy demand of Croatian households sector has been modelled. ► Developed model can describe the whole households sector. ► Main modes include heating, cooling, electrical appliances, cooking and hot water. ► Different scenarios regarding future energy demand are presented and discussed. -- Abstract: Households represent one of the most interesting sectors, when analyzing Croatia’s energy balance. It makes up one of the largest energy consumers with around 75 PJ per year, which is almost 29% of Croatia’s final energy demand. Considering this consumption, implementing various mechanisms, which would lead to improvements in energy efficiency of this sector, seems relevant. In order to plan future energy systems, important would be to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand of different sectors. Through this paper, long term energy demand projections of Croatian households sector will be shown. Focus of the paper will be on various mechanisms influencing future energy demand scenarios. Important would be to quantify this influence, whether positive or negative, and see which mechanisms would be the most significant. Energy demand projections in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model which combines and processes a large number of input data. The model will be compared to Croatian National Energy Strategy and certain differences and conclusions will be presented. One of the major conclusions shown in this paper is significant possibilities for energy efficiency improvements and lower energy demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which leads to lower GHG emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels.

  2. Status of the anesthesia workforce in 2011: evolution during the last decade and future outlook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Armin; Eckhout, Gifford V; Ngo, Anh L; Tremper, Kevin K; Peterson, Mary D

    2012-08-01

    The purpose of this review is to present a comprehensive assessment of the anesthesia workforce during the past decade and attempt forecasting the future based on present knowledge. The supply of anesthesiologists has gradually recovered from a deficit in the mid to late 1990 s. Current entry rates into our specialty are the highest in more than a decade, but are still below the level they were in 1993. These factors along with slower surgical growth and less capital available for expanding anesthetizing locations have resulted in greater availability of anesthesiologists in the labor market. Despite these recent events, the intermediate-term outlook of a rapidly aging population and greater access of previously uninsured patients portends the need to accommodate increasing medical and surgical procedures requiring anesthesia, barring disruptive industry innovations. Late in the decade, nationwide surveys found shortages of anesthesiologists and certified registered nurse anesthetists to persist. In response to increasing training program output with stagnant surgical growth, compensation increases for these allied health professionals have moderated in the present. Future projections anticipate increased personnel availability and, possibly, less compensation for this group. It is important to understand that many of the factors constraining current demand for anesthesia personnel are temporary. Anesthesiologist supply constrained by small graduation growth combined with generation- and gender-based decrements in workforce contribution is unlikely to keep pace with the substantial population and public policy-generated growth in demand for service, even in the face of productivity improvements and innovation.

  3. The future of energy use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lameiras, Fernando Soares

    1996-01-01

    Humanity will not face shortage of energy, but may face problems with its use, because every energy source has restrictions. Fossil fuels change the climate,nuclear energy increases the radioactivity and can be used to manufacture weapons, solar energy is very scattered, and geothermal energy is yet not well known. Delicate political issues emerge in this scenario. Due to the magnitude of energy used by many countries, isolated energy policies can disturb all planet. This may delay decisions and result in the lack of energy supply, hindering the development of many regions, or in conflict between countries. In this paper, some analyses and considerations are presented about the future of energy use, including some axiologic features. The role of nuclear energy is analysed, because, maybe, for the first time a energy source was target of axiologic issues that have affected the growth of its demand. These issues are yet to be internalized by other energy sources in the future. (author)

  4. Veterinary Business Management Association presents program to aid future growth and stability of veterinary profession

    OpenAIRE

    Douglas, Jeffrey S.

    2008-01-01

    Spiraling veterinary student debt and the lack of a sustainable and profitable business model for many private practices in the modern business environment threaten the future growth and stability of the veterinary profession.

  5. Proceedings of the CERI North American natural gas conference and Calgary energy show 2005 : walking the tightrope : supply and demand in delicate balance. CD ROM ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This conference addressed issues concerning current and immediate supplies of natural gas in the North American marketplace, with particular reference to supply and demand growth. Alberta's resource potential as well as its position in the North American market were reviewed, along with the decline of onshore resources in the United States. Exogenous future supplies were reviewed, as well as supplies in Arctic Canada and Alaska. Gas hydrates were discussed as a possible fuel for the future. North American demand issues were examined, including the Alaska Gas Pipeline and Mexico's natural gas potential. Pricing issues were also reviewed along with issues concerning natural gas end-users such as wholesalers and offshore manufacturers of petro-chemical feedstocks. The volatility of the natural gas market was discussed with reference to future gas prices. The conference featured 24 presentations, of which 5 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. tabs., figs

  6. Energy Demand Forecasting: Combining Cointegration Analysis and Artificial Intelligence Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junbing Huang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy is vital for the sustainable development of China. Accurate forecasts of annual energy demand are essential to schedule energy supply and provide valuable suggestions for developing related industries. In the existing literature on energy use prediction, the artificial intelligence-based (AI-based model has received considerable attention. However, few econometric and statistical evidences exist that can prove the reliability of the current AI-based model, an area that still needs to be addressed. In this study, a new energy demand forecasting framework is presented at first. On the basis of historical annual data of electricity usage over the period of 1985–2015, the coefficients of linear and quadratic forms of the AI-based model are optimized by combining an adaptive genetic algorithm and a cointegration analysis shown as an example. Prediction results of the proposed model indicate that the annual growth rate of electricity demand in China will slow down. However, China will continue to demand about 13 trillion kilowatt hours in 2030 because of population growth, economic growth, and urbanization. In addition, the model has greater accuracy and reliability compared with other single optimization methods.

  7. Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan S. Milojević

    2012-01-01

    hypothesis of the existence of phenomenon change trends, the next step in the methodology of forecasting is the determination of a specific growth curve that describes the regularity of the development in time. These curves of growth are obtained by the analytical representation (expression of dynamic lines. There are two basic stages in the process of expression and they are: - The choice of the type of curve the shape of which corresponds to the character of the dynamic order variation - the determination of the number of values (evaluation of the curve parameters. The most widespread method of forecasting is the trend extrapolation. The basis of the trend extrapolation is the continuing of past trends in the future. The simplicity of the trend extrapolation process, on the one hand, and the absence of other information on the other hand, are the main reasons why the trend extrapolation is used for forecasting. The trend extrapolation is founded on the following assumptions: - The phenomenon development can be presented as an evolutionary trajectory or trend, - General conditions that influenced the trend development in the past will not undergo substantial changes in the future. Spare parts demand forecasting is constantly being done in all warehouses, workshops, and at all levels. Without demand forecasting, neither planning nor decision making can be done. Demand forecasting is the input for determining the level of reserve, size of the order, ordering cycles, etc. The question that arises is the one of the reliability and accuracy of a forecast and its effects. Forecasting 'by feeling' is not to be dismissed if there is nothing better, but in this case, one must be prepared for forecasting failures that cause unnecessary accumulation of certain spare parts, and also a chronic shortage of other spare parts. All this significantly increases costs and does not provide a satisfactory supply of spare parts. The main problem of the application of this model is that each

  8. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zulkepli, Jafri; Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

    2015-01-01

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars

  9. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zulkepli, Jafri, E-mail: zhjafri@uum.edu.my; Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal, E-mail: nhaslinda@uum.edu.my [School of Quantitative Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia, Sintok, Kedah (Malaysia); Fong, Chan Hwa, E-mail: hfchan7623@yahoo.com [SWM Environment Sdn. Bhd.Level 17, Menara LGB, Taman Tun Dr. Ismail Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

    2015-12-11

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

  10. Benefits of Demand Side Response in Providing Frequency Response Service in the Future GB Power System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei eTeng

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The demand for ancillary service is expected to increase significantly in the future GB electricity system due to high penetration of wind. In particular, the need for frequency response, required to deal with sudden frequency drops following a loss of generator, will increase because of the limited inertia capability of wind plants. This paper quantifies the requirements for primary frequency response and analyses the benefits of frequency response provision from DSR. The results show dramatic changes in frequency response requirements driven by high penetration of wind. Case studies carried out by using an advanced stochastic generation scheduling model suggest that the provision of frequency response from DSR could greatly reduce the system operation cost, wind curtailment and carbon emissions in the future GB system characterised by high penetration of wind. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that the benefit of DSR shows significant diurnal and seasonal variation, whereas an even more rapid (instant delivery of frequency response from DSR could provide significant additional value. Our studies also indicate that the competing technologies to DSR, namely battery storage and more flexible generation could potentially reduce its value by up to 35%, still leaving significant room to deploy DSR as frequency response provider.

  11. Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Kahil, Taher; Byers, Edward; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Greve, Peter; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Nava, Luzma Fabiola; Cosgrove, William; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.

  12. A supply-demand model of fetal energy sufficiency predicts lipid profiles in male but not female Filipino adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzawa, C W; Adair, L S

    2004-03-01

    To test the hypothesis that the balance between fetal nutritional demand and maternal nutritional supply during pregnancy will predict lipid profiles in offspring measured in adolescence. A total of 296 male and 307 female Filipino offspring (aged 14-16 y) and mothers enrolled in a longitudinal birth cohort study (begun in 1983-84) had lipid profiles measured. Data on maternal height (as a proxy for offspring growth potential and thus fetal nutritional demand) and third trimester maternal arm fat area (as a proxy for maternal supply) were used to create four groups hypothesized to reflect a gradient of fetal energy sufficiency. As fetal energy sufficiency increased among males, there was a decrease in total cholesterol (TC) (Psupply-demand model did not predict any lipid outcome or clinical risk criteria. Our findings in males support the hypothesis that the balance between fetal nutritional demand and maternal nutritional supply has implications for future lipid profiles. The lack of significant associations in females adds to mounting evidence for sex differences in lipid metabolism programming, and may reflect sex differences in fetal nutritional demand. The National Science Foundation, the Mellon Foundation, the Nestle Foundation, and the Emory University Internationalization Program.

  13. [The status quo and future prospects of emergency medical service systems in Japan in view of the tight supply-demand situation for medical resources].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aruga, Tohru

    2016-02-01

    Considering the tight supply-demand situation for medical resources contributing to emergency medical service(EMS) systems at present and in the future in Japan, the author has explained the present states and future prospects of EMS systems in our country. EMS in remote places in this country is now consisting of the concentration of limited human resources, and is therefore suggestive of the EMS systems in the future, because we will have to deal with the possible exhaustion of EMS in our superannuated society progressing now and in the future. And also EMS systems will have to be maintained in the future with concerted efforts of all the medical staffs. The transferring the medical doctors' tasks to those of nurses and other staffs, that is to say the task shifting has just authorized by recent laws, and so the task shifting will be useful in the future EMS systems performed by all kinds of medical workers, in whom general physicians will be included as they are to be distributed throughout this country in the future.

  14. Increased water deficit decreases Douglas fir growth throughout western US forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Restaino, Christina M; Peterson, David L; Littell, Jeremy

    2016-08-23

    Changes in tree growth rates can affect tree mortality and forest feedbacks to the global carbon cycle. As air temperature increases, evaporative demand also increases, increasing effective drought in forest ecosystems. Using a spatially comprehensive network of Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) chronologies from 122 locations that represent distinct climate environments in the western United States, we show that increased temperature decreases growth via vapor pressure deficit (VPD) across all latitudes. Using an ensemble of global circulation models, we project an increase in both the mean VPD associated with the lowest growth extremes and the probability of exceeding these VPD values. As temperature continues to increase in future decades, we can expect deficit-related stress to increase and consequently Douglas fir growth to decrease throughout its US range.

  15. Demand for food products in Finland: A demand system approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilkka P. Laurila

    1994-07-01

    Full Text Available The study was concerned with the estimation of food-demand parameters in a system context. The patterns of food consumption in Finland were presented over the period 1950-1991, and a complete demand system of food expenditures was estimated. Price and expenditure elasticities of demand were derived, and the results were used to obtain projections on future consumption. While the real expenditure on food has increased, the budget share of food has decreased. In the early 19505, combined Food-at-Home and Food-away-from-Home corresponded to about 40% of consumers’ total expenditure. In 1991 the share was 28%. There was a shift to meals eaten outside the home. While the budget share of Food-away-from-Home increased from 3% to 7% over the observation period, Food-at-Home fell from 37% to 21%, and Food-at-Home excluding Alcoholic Drinks fell from 34% to 16%. Within Food-at-Home, the budget shares of the broad aggregate groups, Animalia (food from animal sources, Beverages, and Vegetablia (food from vegetable sources, remained about the same over the four decades, while structural change took place within the aggregates. Within Animalia, consumption shifted from Dairy Products (other than Fresh Milk to Meat and Fish. Within Beverages, consumption shifted from Fresh Milk and Hot Drinks to Alcoholic Drinks and Soft Drinks. Within Vegetablia, consumption shifted from Flour to Fruits, while the shares of Bread and Cake and Vegetables remained about the same. As the complete demand system, the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS was employed. The conventional AIDS was extended by developing a dynamic generalisation of the model and allowing for systematic shifts in structural relationships over time. A four-stage budgeting system was specified, consisting of seven sub-systems (groups, and covering 18 food categories. Tests on parameter restrictions and misspecification tests were used to choose the most preferred model specification for each group. Generally

  16. Demand management concept and tool in a dynamic context

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, Ankun

    2008-01-01

    ChainScope B.V. is a startup company that develops supply chain optimization and planning software. The optimization software is currently based on the assumption of stationary demand. However, in real-life situation future demand is forecasted through a combination of time series analysis and human

  17. Modeling workforce demand in North Dakota: a System Dynamics approach

    OpenAIRE

    Muminova, Adiba

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the dynamics behind the workforce demand and attempts to predict the potential effects of future changes in oil prices on workforce demand in North Dakota. The study attempts to join System Dynamics and Input-Output models in order to overcome shortcomings in both of the approaches and gain a more complete understanding of the issue of workforce demand. A system dynamics simulation of workforce demand within different economic sector...

  18. China's energy demand and its characteristics in the industrialization and urbanization process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Zhujun; Lin Boqiang

    2012-01-01

    China is currently in the process of industrialization and urbanization, which is the key stage of transition from a low-income country to a middle-income country and requires large amount of energy. The process will not end until 2020, so China's primary energy demand will keep high growth in the mid-term. Although each country is unique considering its particular history and background, all countries are sharing some common rules in energy demand for economic development. Based on the comparison with developed countries, here, we report some rules in the process of industrialization and urbanization as follows: (1) urbanization always goes along with industrialization; (2) the higher economic growth is, the higher energy demand is; (3) economic globalization makes it possible to shorten the time of industrialization, but the shorter the transition phase is, the faster energy demand grows; (4) the change of energy intensity presents as an “inverted U” curve, but whose shape can be changed for different energy policy. The above rules are very important for the Chinese government in framing its energy policy. - Highlights: ► China's energy demand will maintain high growth in mid-term. ► Urbanization always goes along with industrialization. ► Higher economic growth needs more energy. ► The energy intensity presents as an “inverted U” curve.

  19. Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisner, Courtney P.; Wood, Joshua C.; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S.; Robin Buell, C.; Winkler, Julie A.

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.

  20. Econometric Modeling: An Application to the Demand for Electricity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The empirical results show an inverse relationship between real appliance purchase price, the real per capita income and the demand for electricity. Also the rate of population growth rate as a proxy for electricity consumers appears to be insignificant. This reveals the clear fact that the demand for electricity is greater than ...

  1. How are investment decisions in the steam coal market affected by demand uncertainty and buyer-side market power?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulus, Moritz

    2012-02-15

    During the last decade, China has evolved into the largest consumer by far and one of the largest importers of coal. The main driver for the increase in coal demand in China has been economic growth. Future Chinese growth rates, and therefore coal consumption and coal imports, are highly uncertain, which may affect profitability of new investments of international mining companies. Furthermore, China has actively employed an array of instruments to control coal trade flows in the last years. In this paper, we analyse the potential impact of increased Chinese coal import volatility and of potential exertion of Chinese market power on global mining investment decisions. For this purpose, we develop a multi-stage stochastic equilibrium model which is able to simulate investments under uncertainty and a monopolistic player in addition to a competitive fringe. We find that accounting for Chinese demand uncertainty yields significant costs for investors and also leads to a delay in investments. Additionally, the exertion of Chinese market power further reduces overall investment activity.

  2. How are investment decisions in the steam coal market affected by demand uncertainty and buyer-side market power?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulus, Moritz

    2012-01-01

    During the last decade, China has evolved into the largest consumer by far and one of the largest importers of coal. The main driver for the increase in coal demand in China has been economic growth. Future Chinese growth rates, and therefore coal consumption and coal imports, are highly uncertain, which may affect profitability of new investments of international mining companies. Furthermore, China has actively employed an array of instruments to control coal trade flows in the last years. In this paper, we analyse the potential impact of increased Chinese coal import volatility and of potential exertion of Chinese market power on global mining investment decisions. For this purpose, we develop a multi-stage stochastic equilibrium model which is able to simulate investments under uncertainty and a monopolistic player in addition to a competitive fringe. We find that accounting for Chinese demand uncertainty yields significant costs for investors and also leads to a delay in investments. Additionally, the exertion of Chinese market power further reduces overall investment activity.

  3. The Anatomy of Medium-Scale Farm Growth in Zambia: What Are the Implications for the Future of Smallholder Agriculture?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Sitko

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Lost in the debates about the appropriate scale of production to promote agricultural growth in Africa is the rapid expansion of medium-scale farmers. Using Zambia as a case study, this article explores the causes and consequences of this middle-tier transformation on the future of small-scale agriculture. Combining political economic analysis with household survey data, this article examines the relationships between the growth in medium-scale farmers and changing conditions of land access, inequality, and alienation for small-scale farmers. Growth of medium-scale farmers is associated with high land inequality and rapid land alienation in high potential agricultural areas. This growth is shown to be partially driven by wage earner investment in land acquisition and is leading to substantial under-utilization of agricultural land. These processes are both limiting agricultural growth potential and foreclosing future options for an inclusive agricultural development strategy.

  4. Economic concepts to address future water supply-demand imbalances in Iran, Morocco and Saudi Arabia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Immerzeel, W.; Droogers, P.

    2013-01-01

    In Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, renewable groundwater and surface water supply are limited while demand for water is growing rapidly. Climate change is expected to increase water demand even further. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the water supply–demand imbalances in

  5. Modelling transport energy demand: A socio-technical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anable, Jillian; Brand, Christian; Tran, Martino; Eyre, Nick

    2012-01-01

    Despite an emerging consensus that societal energy consumption and related emissions are not only influenced by technical efficiency but also by lifestyles and socio-cultural factors, few attempts have been made to operationalise these insights in models of energy demand. This paper addresses that gap by presenting a scenario exercise using an integrated suite of sectoral and whole systems models to explore potential energy pathways in the UK transport sector. Techno-economic driven scenarios are contrasted with one in which social change is strongly influenced by concerns about energy use, the environment and well-being. The ‘what if’ Lifestyle scenario reveals a future in which distance travelled by car is reduced by 74% by 2050 and final energy demand from transport is halved compared to the reference case. Despite the more rapid uptake of electric vehicles and the larger share of electricity in final energy demand, it shows a future where electricity decarbonisation could be delayed. The paper illustrates the key trade-off between the more aggressive pursuit of purely technological fixes and demand reduction in the transport sector and concludes there are strong arguments for pursuing both demand and supply side solutions in the pursuit of emissions reduction and energy security.

  6. The impact of the financial crisis on the global seaborne hard coal market. Are there implications for the future?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rademacher, Maggi; Braun, Raphael [E.ON Kraftwerke GmbH, Hannover (Germany)

    2011-06-15

    The global financial crisis in 2008 sent commodity markets spinning which caused demand to erode, price levels to quickly plummet and project financing costs to rise. In this paper, the authors examine the impacts the economic slowdown has had on the global seaborne hard coal market looking at the impacts for both coking (metallurgical) and thermal (steam) coals including pricing, supply availability, demand and aggregated mine level production costs. The hard coal market experienced a significant slow down; the commodity has bounced back strongly in 2010 driven by strong Asian demand at growth rates above historic levels and strong projections for the future. (orig.)

  7. Pediatric Orthopaedic Workforce in 2014: Current Workforce and Projections for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawyer, Jeffrey R; Jones, Kerwyn C; Copley, Lawson A; Chambers, Stephanie

    2017-01-01

    The changing nature of the United States (US) health care system has prompted debate concerning the physician supply. The basic questions are: do we have an adequate number of surgeons to meet current demands and are we training the correct number of surgeons to meet future demands? The purpose of this analysis was to characterize the current pediatric orthopaedic workforce in terms of supply and demand, both present and future. Databases were searched (POSNA, SF Match, KID, MGMA) to determine the current pediatric orthopaedic workforce and workforce distribution, as well as pediatric orthopaedic demand. The number of active Pediatric Orthopaedic Society of North America (POSNA) members increased over the past 20 years, from 410 in 1993 to 653 in 2014 (155% increase); however, the density of POSNA members is not equally distributed, but correlates to population density. The number of estimated pediatric discharges, orthopaedic and nonorthopaedic, has remained relatively stable from 6,348,537 in 1997 to 5,850,184 in 2012. Between 2003 and 2013, the number of pediatric orthopaedic fellows graduating from Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education and non-Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education programs increased from 39 to 50 (29%), with a peak of 67 fellows (71%) in 2009. Although predicting the exact need for pediatric orthopaedic surgeons (POS) is impossible because of the complex interplay among macroeconomic, governmental, insurance, and local factors, some trends were identified: the supply of POS has increased, which may offset the expected numbers of experienced surgeons who will be leaving the workforce in the next 10 to 15 years; macroeconomic factors influencing demand for physician services, driven by gross domestic product and population growth, are expected to be stable in the near future; expansion of the scope of practice for POS is expected to continue; and further similar assessments are warranted. Level II-economic and

  8. Energy futures project : backgrounder for consultation sessions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhargava, A.

    2006-05-01

    The National Energy Board periodically publishes a long-term energy and demand report as part of an ongoing monitoring program. The next report is planned for release in 2007. This background document provided background information to ensure that consultation participants have a common understanding of key issues to be addressed during the cross-country consultations that have been planned before the release of the final version of the report. An outline of the proposed analytical approach was presented, as well as details of major assumptions and scenario storylines. Scenario themes included: economic, energy and environmental sustainability; a security-focused world shaped by war and civil strife; and strong global economic growth fueled by the rapid growth of the Chinese and Indian economies. A methodology overview was provided as well as a reference case. Issues related to energy supply included oil; natural gas liquids; natural gas; and electricity. Issues related to energy demand included the residential sector; the commercial sector; the industrial sector; and the transportation sector. Historical trends and forecasts were outlined using the macroeconomic variable of interest. Supply, demand, and supporting infrastructure across all energy forms within a North American and global context were considered. The impact of environmental management strategies were reviewed, as well as the role of the government in shaping policies. It was concluded that the purpose of the final report is to serve as a standard of references for parties interested in Canadian energy issues and trends as well as to inform decision makers of key risks and uncertainties facing the energy future.9 tabs., 1 fig

  9. The impact of predicted demand on energy production

    Science.gov (United States)

    El kafazi, I.; Bannari, R.; Aboutafail, My. O.

    2018-05-01

    Energy is crucial for human life, a secure and accessible supply of power is essential for the sustainability of societies. Economic development and demographic progression increase energy demand, prompting countries to conduct research and studies on energy demand and production. Although, increasing in energy demand in the future requires a correct determination of the amount of energy supplied. Our article studies the impact of demand on energy production to find the relationship between the two latter and managing properly the production between the different energy sources. Historical data of demand and energy production since 2000 are used. The data are processed by the regression model to study the impact of demand on production. The obtained results indicate that demand has a positive and significant impact on production (high impact). Production is also increasing but at a slower pace. In this work, Morocco is considered as a case study.

  10. The Effects of Projected Future Demand Including Very Light Jet Air-Taxi Operations on U.S. National Airspace System Delays as a Function of Next Generation Air Transportation System Airspace Capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jerry; Viken, Jeff; Dollyhigh, Samuel; Trani, Antonio; Baik, Hojong; Hinze, Nicholas; Ashiabor, Senanu

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the results from a study which investigates the potential effects of the growth in air traffic demand including projected Very Light Jet (VLJ) air-taxi operations adding to delays experienced by commercial passenger air transportation in the year 2025. The geographic region studied is the contiguous United States (U.S.) of America, although international air traffic to and from the U.S. is included. The main focus of this paper is to determine how much air traffic growth, including VLJ air-taxi operations will add to enroute airspace congestion and determine what additional airspace capacity will be needed to accommodate the expected demand. Terminal airspace is not modeled and increased airport capacity is assumed.

  11. Demand for electric power in major markets worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roeder, A [ABB Asea Brown Boveri Ltd., Zurich (Switzerland)

    1990-01-01

    One third of primary energy consumption is today being used to generate electrical power. The author discusses with the aid of statistics and diagrams, the various uses of energy, and the per capita energy consumption throughout the world. He considers that future demand for power depends to a large extent on GNP but also on fuel prices and reserves, energy policies and environmental concerns. On balance, these will lead to the introduction of clean coal technologies and a renaissance of nuclear power stations in the near future but until then gas-fired power plant will continue to play a dominant role in meeting power demands. 9 figs., 8 tabs.

  12. Time series modelling to forecast prehospital EMS demand for diabetic emergencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villani, Melanie; Earnest, Arul; Nanayakkara, Natalie; Smith, Karen; de Courten, Barbora; Zoungas, Sophia

    2017-05-05

    Acute diabetic emergencies are often managed by prehospital Emergency Medical Services (EMS). The projected growth in prevalence of diabetes is likely to result in rising demand for prehospital EMS that are already under pressure. The aims of this study were to model the temporal trends and provide forecasts of prehospital attendances for diabetic emergencies. A time series analysis on monthly cases of hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia was conducted using data from the Ambulance Victoria (AV) electronic database between 2009 and 2015. Using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modelling process, different models were evaluated. The most parsimonious model with the highest accuracy was selected. Forty-one thousand four hundred fifty-four prehospital diabetic emergencies were attended over a seven-year period with an increase in the annual median monthly caseload between 2009 (484.5) and 2015 (549.5). Hypoglycemia (70%) and people with type 1 diabetes (48%) accounted for most attendances. The SARIMA (0,1,0,12) model provided the best fit, with a MAPE of 4.2% and predicts a monthly caseload of approximately 740 by the end of 2017. Prehospital EMS demand for diabetic emergencies is increasing. SARIMA time series models are a valuable tool to allow forecasting of future caseload with high accuracy and predict increasing cases of prehospital diabetic emergencies into the future. The model generated by this study may be used by service providers to allow appropriate planning and resource allocation of EMS for diabetic emergencies.

  13. Methodology of demand forecast by market analysis of electric power and load curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barreiro, C.J.; Atmann, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    A methodology for demand forecast of consumer classes and their aggregation is presented. An analysis of the actual attended market can be done by appropriate measures and load curves studies. The suppositions for the future market behaviour by consumer classes (industrial, residential, commercial, others) are shown, and the actions for optimise this market are foreseen, obtained by load curves modulations. The process of future demand determination is obtained by the appropriate aggregation of this segmented demands. (C.G.C.)

  14. World coal prices and future energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, J.

    1992-01-01

    The Clean Air Act Amendments will create some important changes in the US domestic steam coal market, including price increases for compliance coal by the year 2000 and price decreases for high-sulfur coal. In the international market, there is likely to be a continuing oversupply which will put a damper on price increases. The paper examines several forecasts for domestic and international coal prices and notes a range of predictions for future oil prices

  15. ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN A NORTHERN MEXICO METROPOLITAN ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas M. Fullerton

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Using an error correction framework, this study analyzes the long- and short-run dynamics of electricity demand in Ciudad Juarez, a large metropolitan economy on Mexico’s northern border. Demand is decomposed into the total number of electricity accounts and electricity usage per customer, each of which is modeled separately. A two-stage least squares approach is used to estimate the per customer electricity demand equations due to the endogeneity of the average price variable. The results indicate sustained growth in population, employment, and income can be expected to exert substantial upward pressure on regional electric power demand. Furthermore, demand is found to be price-inelastic in this metropolitan area, suggesting that rate increases can help raise the revenues necessary to fund expansion of the electrical grid.

  16. Forecast of energy demand in China and introduction of nuclear power using the clean development mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikemoto, Ichiro

    2003-01-01

    As an economic energy source with low greenhouse gas emissions and essentially no resource limitations, nuclear power is a promising option for meeting the rapidly growing energy demands of China that is being driven by rapid population and economic growth. This paper examines an introduction scenario for nuclear power in China by using the clean development mechanism, based on quantitative evaluation of energy demand forecasts and the nuclear fuel cycle through 2100. The results of the case study concluded that in the short to mid term, large-scale light water reactors will primarily be sited in coastal areas where infrastructure development is advanced. In the future, as dispersed power sources in inland areas, small scale FBRs will be preferred due to their promising safety, operation and maintenance characteristics, ease of transportation of plant equipment and plant construction and the possibility of on-site nuclear fuel cycle. Evaluation of nuclear fuel cycle showed that this introduction scenario is feasible considering natural Uranium demand, Uranium enrichment capacity and reprocessing capacity. (author)

  17. Modelling aggregate domestic electricity demand in Ghana: An autoregressive distributed lag bounds cointegration approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adom, Philip Kofi; Bekoe, William; Akoena, Sesi Kutri Komla

    2012-01-01

    In spite of the varying supply boosting efforts made by various governments to deal with the existing demand–supply gap in the electricity sector, the incessant growth in aggregate domestic electricity demand has made these efforts futile. As an objective, this paper attempts to identify the factors responsible for the historical growth trends in aggregate domestic electricity demand quantifying their effects both in the short-run and long-run periods using the ARDL Bounds cointegration approach and the sample period 1975 to 2005. In the long-run, real per capita GDP, industry efficiency, structural changes in the economy, and degree of urbanisation are identified as the main driving force behind the historical growth trend in aggregate domestic electricity demand. However, in the short-run, real per capita GDP, industry efficiency, and degree of urbanisation are the main drivers of aggregate domestic electricity demand. Industry efficiency is the only factor that drives aggregate domestic electricity demand downwards. However, the negative efficiency effect is insufficient to have outweighed the positive income, output, and demographic effects, hence the continual growth in aggregate domestic electricity demand. As a policy option, we recommend that appropriate electricity efficiency standards be implemented at the industry level. - Highlights: ► Real per capita GDP is the primary determinant of electricity demand both in the short and long-run. ► Industrial efficiency, structural changes and urbanisation rate play secondary role. ► The positive income, output, and demographic effects outweigh the negative efficiency effects.

  18. Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaac, Morna; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we assess the potential development of energy use for future residential heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. In a reference scenario, global energy demand for heating is projected to increase until 2030 and then stabilize. In contrast, energy demand for air conditioning is projected to increase rapidly over the whole 2000-2100 period, mostly driven by income growth. The associated CO 2 emissions for both heating and cooling increase from 0.8 Gt C in 2000 to 2.2 Gt C in 2100, i.e. about 12% of total CO 2 emissions from energy use (the strongest increase occurs in Asia). The net effect of climate change on global energy use and emissions is relatively small as decreases in heating are compensated for by increases in cooling. However, impacts on heating and cooling individually are considerable in this scenario, with heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change, and air-conditioning energy demand increased by 72%. At the regional scale considerable impacts can be seen, particularly in South Asia, where energy demand for residential air conditioning could increase by around 50% due to climate change, compared with the situation without climate change

  19. Non-OPEC oil supply gains to outpace demand in 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1997-01-01

    Rising oil supplies in 1997 will relax some of the market tightness that drove up crude prices last year. Worldwide demand for petroleum products in 1996 rose faster than anticipated and faster than supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This increased demand for OPEC oil and pushed up prices for crude. At year end, the world export price of crude was up more than 25% from the same period a year earlier. Market conditions will change in 1997. While worldwide economic growth will continue to boost demand for energy and petroleum, non-OPEC petroleum supply will grow even more. Increases in North Sea and Latin American production will help boost non-OPEC output by 1.9 million b/d. And revenues from 1996 production gains will make additional investment possible in exploration and production. The paper discusses world economic growth, world oil demand, worldwide supply, supply outlook, prices and international drilling

  20. The Key to Promoting Economic Growth

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The low contribution of consumption to economic growth has become a source of anxiety for Chinese economic officials. With a sharp decline in exports as a result of the international financial crisis, the Chinese Government hopes that consumption will become a new engine of economic growth. The aim of promoting domestic demand is very clear in the 4-trillion-yuan ($586-billion) economic stimulus package the government approved last fall. How should we assess the present situation of consumption in China and its future course? At the Global Think Tank Summit held in Beijing on July 4, Ma Jiantang, Commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics, Wang Guangqian, President of the Central University of Finance and Economics, and Yuan Yue, Chairman of the Board of Horizon Research Consultancy Group, shared their opinions.

  1. Supply and demand for wood: a worldwide perspective?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sally. Duncan

    1998-01-01

    In a unique effort to compare and contrast differing views on future supply and demand for wood, a study found that demand for wood will increase, but there is no evidence of a crisis at the world scale. Opportunities to increase wood production, however, are limited and trade-offs among competing uses of forests are inevitable. A complex of factors determine supply...

  2. Impact of onsite solar generation on system load demand forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaur, Amanpreet; Pedro, Hugo T.C.; Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • We showed the impact onsite solar generation on system demand load forecast. • Forecast performance degrades by 9% and 3% for 1 h and 15 min forecast horizons. • Error distribution for onsite case is best characterized as t-distribution. • Relation between error, solar penetration and solar variability is characterized. - Abstract: Net energy metering tariffs have encouraged the growth of solar PV in the distribution grid. The additional variability associated with weather-dependent renewable energy creates new challenges for power system operators that must maintain and operate ancillary services to balance the grid. To deal with these issues power operators mostly rely on demand load forecasts. Electric load forecast has been used in power industry for a long time and there are several well established load forecasting models. But the performance of these models for future scenario of high renewable energy penetration is unclear. In this work, the impact of onsite solar power generation on the demand load forecast is analyzed for a community that meets between 10% and 15% of its annual power demand and 3–54% of its daily power demand from a solar power plant. Short-Term Load Forecasts (STLF) using persistence, machine learning and regression-based forecasting models are presented for two cases: (1) high solar penetration and (2) no penetration. Results show that for 1-h and 15-min forecasts the accuracy of the models drops by 9% and 3% with high solar penetration. Statistical analysis of the forecast errors demonstrate that the error distribution is best characterized as a t-distribution for the high penetration scenario. Analysis of the error distribution as a function of daily solar penetration for different levels of variability revealed that the solar power variability drives the forecast error magnitude whereas increasing penetration level has a much smaller contribution. This work concludes that the demand forecast error distribution

  3. When the 'soft-path' gets hard: demand management and financial instability for water utilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeff, H. B.; Characklis, G. W.

    2014-12-01

    In the past, cost benefit analysis (CBA) has been viewed as an effective means of evaluating water utility strategies, particularly those that were dependent on the construction of new supply infrastructure. As water utilities have begun to embrace 'soft-path' approaches as a way to reduce the need for supply-centric development, CBA fails to recognize some important financial incentives affected by reduced water consumption. Demand management, both as a short-term response to drought and in longer-term actions to accommodate demand growth, can introduce revenue risks that adversely affect a utility's ability to repay debt, re-invest in aging infrastructure, or maintain reserve funds for use in a short-term emergency. A utility that does not generate sufficient revenue to support these functions may be subject to credit rating downgrades, which in turn affect the interest rate it pays on its debt. Interest rates are a critical consideration for utility managers in the capital-intensive water sector, where debt payments for infrastructure often account for a large portion of a utility's overall costs. Even a small increase in interest rates can add millions of dollars to the cost of new infrastructure. Recent studies have demonstrated that demand management techniques can lead to significant revenue variability, and credit rating agencies have begun to take notice of drought response plans when evaluating water utility credit ratings, providing utilities with a disincentive to fully embrace soft-path approaches. This analysis examines the impact of demand management schemes on key credit rating metrics for a water utility in Raleigh, North Carolina. The utility's consumer base is currently experiencing rapid population growth, and demand management has the potential to reduce the dependence on costly new supply infrastructure but could lead to financial instability that will significantly increase the costs of financing future projects. This work analyzes how 'soft

  4. Uranium supply/demand projections to 2030 in the OECD/NEA-IAEA ''Red Book''. Nuclear growth projections, global uranium exploration, uranium resources, uranium production and production capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vance, Robert

    2009-01-01

    World demand for electricity is expected to continue to grow rapidly over the next several decades to meet the needs of an increasing population and economic growth. The recognition by many governments that nuclear power can produce competitively priced, base load electricity that is essentially free of greenhouse gas emissions, combined with the role that nuclear can play in enhancing security of energy supplies, has increased the prospects for growth in nuclear generating capacity. Since the mid-1960s, with the co-operation of their member countries and states, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have jointly prepared periodic updates (currently every 2 years) on world uranium resources, production and demand. These updates have been published by the OECD/NEA in what is commonly known as the ''Red Book''. The 2007 edition replaces the 2005 edition and reflects information current as of 1 st January 2007. Uranium 2007: Resources, Production and Demand presents, in addition to updated resource figures, the results of a recent review of world uranium market fundamentals and provides a statistical profile of the world uranium industry. It contains official data provided by 40 countries (and one Country Report prepared by the IAEA Secretariat) on uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements to 2030 as well as a discussion of long-term uranium supply and demand issues are also presented. (orig.)

  5. Survey Forecasts and Money Demand Functions: Some International Evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch, Christian; Rülke, Jan

    2011-01-01

    We derive a money demand function from a dynamic macroeconomic general equilibrium model to analyze the correlations between professional economists’ forecasts of the growth rate of money supply, the inflation rate, the growth rate of real output, and the nominal interest rate. Upon estimating...... by the macroeconomic model....

  6. Assessment of demand for and supply of qualified manpower for the nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morelle, J.

    1993-01-01

    The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency recently published a study which presents the results of a pioneering survey of the demand for and the supply of qualified manpower in various sectors of the nuclear industry (including medicine), and in the related areas of regulation and education in 12 OECD countries. The current manpower situation is presented and the future demand is reviewed. Present and future activities of OECD countries to ensure a balance between supply and demand of qualified manpower are discussed

  7. Endocrine regulation of fetal skeletal muscle growth: impact on future metabolic health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Laura D.

    2014-01-01

    Establishing sufficient skeletal muscle mass is essential for lifelong metabolic health. The intrauterine environment is a major determinant of the muscle mass that is present for the life course of an individual, because muscle fiber number is set at the time of birth. Thus, a compromised intrauterine environment from maternal nutrient restriction or placental insufficiency that restricts development of muscle fiber number can have permanent effects on the amount of muscle an individual will live with. Reduced muscle mass due to fewer muscle fibers persists even after compensatory or “catch up” postnatal growth occurs. Furthermore, muscle hypertrophy can only partially compensate for this limitation in fiber number. Compelling associations link low birth weight and decreased muscle mass to future insulin resistance, which can drive the development of the metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes, and risk for cardiovascular events later in life. There are gaps in knowledge about the origins of reduced muscle growth at the cellular level and how these patterns are set during fetal development. By understanding the nutrient and endocrine regulation of fetal skeletal muscle growth and development, we can direct research efforts towards improving muscle growth early in life in order to prevent the development of chronic metabolic disease later in life. PMID:24532817

  8. The future of electric two-wheelers and electric vehicles in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weinert, Jonathan; Ogden, Joan; Sperling, Dan; Burke, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    The method of force field analysis is used to examine the future technological and market evolution of electric two-wheelers (E2W) in China. The authors identify key forces driving and resisting future E2W market growth, root causes behind these forces, and important insights about the likelihood of a wide shift to larger three- and four-wheel electric vehicles (EV). The authors conclude that the key forces driving E2W market growth are: improvements in E2W and battery technology due to product modularity and modular industry structure, strong local regulatory support in the form of gasoline-powered motorcycle bans and loose enforcement of E2W standards, and deteriorating bus public transit service. The largest forces resisting E2W market growth are strong demand for gasoline-powered motorcycles, bans on E2Ws due to safety concerns in urban areas, and growing support for public transit. The balance of these forces appears to favor E2W market growth. This growth will likely drive vehicle electrification through continued innovation in batteries and motors, the switch from lead-acid to Li-ion batteries in E2Ws, and the development of larger E2Ws and EVs. There are however strong forces resisting vehicle electrification, including battery cost, charging infrastructure, and inherent complications with large battery systems. (author)

  9. Impact of the economic downturn on total joint replacement demand in the United States: updated projections to 2021.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurtz, Steven M; Ong, Kevin L; Lau, Edmund; Bozic, Kevin J

    2014-04-16

    Few studies have explored the role of the National Health Expenditure and macroeconomics on the utilization of total joint replacement. The economic downturn has raised questions about the sustainability of growth for total joint replacement in the future. Previous projections of total joint replacement demand in the United States were based on data up to 2003 using a statistical methodology that neglected macroeconomic factors, such as the National Health Expenditure. Data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (1993 to 2010) were used with United States Census and National Health Expenditure data to quantify historical trends in total joint replacement rates, including the two economic downturns in the 2000s. Primary and revision hip and knee arthroplasty were identified using codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification. Projections in total joint replacement were estimated using a regression model incorporating the growth in population and rate of arthroplasties from 1993 to 2010 as a function of age, sex, race, and census region using the National Health Expenditure as the independent variable. The regression model was used in conjunction with government projections of National Health Expenditure from 2011 to 2021 to estimate future arthroplasty rates in subpopulations of the United States and to derive national estimates. The growth trend for the incidence of joint arthroplasty, for the overall United States population as well as for the United States workforce, was insensitive to economic downturns. From 2009 to 2010, the total number of procedures increased by 6.0% for primary total hip arthroplasty, 6.1% for primary total knee arthroplasty, 10.8% for revision total hip arthroplasty, and 13.5% for revision total knee arthroplasty. The National Health Expenditure model projections for primary hip replacement in 2020 were higher than a previously projected model, whereas the current model estimates for total

  10. The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranger, N.; Surminski, S.

    2012-04-01

    Session ERE5.1 Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand. Over the past decade, growth in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economies has been a key driver of global economic growth. Current forecasts suggest that these markets will continue to be areas of significant growth for a large number of industries. We consider how climate change may influence these trends in the period to 2030, a time horizon that is long in terms of strategic planning in industry, but relatively short for climate change analysis, where the impacts are predicted to be most significant beyond around 2050. Based on current evidence, we expect climate change to affect the BRICS economies in four main ways: 1. The impact of physical climatic changes on the productivity of climate-sensitive economic activity, the local environment, human health and wellbeing, and damages from extreme weather. 2. Changing patterns of investment in climate risk management and adaptation 3. Changing patterns of investments in areas affected by greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy, 4. The impacts of the above globally, including on international trade, growth, investment, policy, migration and commodity prices, and their impacts on the BRICS. We review the evidence on the impacts of climate change in the BRICS and then apply this to one particular industry sector: non-life insurance. We propose five potential pathways through which climate change could influence insurance demand: economic growth; willingness to pay for insurance; public policy and regulation; the insurability of natural catastrophe risks; and new opportunities associated with adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. We conclude that, with the exception of public policy and regulation, the influence of climate change on insurance demand to 2030 is likely to be small when compared with the expected growth due to rising

  11. The Growing Demand for Hospice and Palliative Medicine Physicians: Will the Supply Keep Up?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupu, Dale; Quigley, Leo; Mehfoud, Nicholas; Salsberg, Edward S

    2018-04-01

    The need for hospice and palliative care is growing rapidly as the population increases and ages and as both hospice and palliative care become more accepted. Hospice and palliative medicine (HPM) is a relatively new physician specialty, currently training 325 new fellows annually. Given the time needed to increase the supply of specialty-trained physicians, it is important to assess future needs to guide planning for future training capacity. We modeled the need for and supply of specialist HPM physicians through the year 2040 to determine whether training capacity should continue growing. To create a benchmark for need, we used a population-based approach to look at the current geographic distribution of the HPM physician supply. To model future supply, we calculated the annual change in current supply by adding newly trained physicians and subtracting physicians leaving the labor force. The current U.S. supply of HPM specialists is 13.35 per 100,000 adults 65 and older. This ratio varies greatly across the country. Using alternate assumptions for future supply and demand, we project that need in 2040 will range from 10,640 to almost 24,000 HPM specialist physicians. Supply will range from 8100 to 19,000. Current training capacity is insufficient to keep up with population growth and demand for services. HPM fellowships would need to grow from the current 325 graduates annually to between 500 and 600 per year by 2030 to assure sufficient physician workforce for hospice and palliative care services given current service provision patterns. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Sulphur demand growing. [Alberta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-01-20

    Sulfur markets look better going into 1975 than they have for several years, as North American demand growth is being filled largely by elemental sulfur producers and overseas. Demand is rising as fast as the capacity of Canadian transportation and handling facilities. It will take a long time to make much of a dent in the total Alberta stockpile of 14 million long tons at the end of 1974, with involuntary production from sour gas plants exceeding sales volume since 1972. However, there is some encouragement in the approaching peakout of production combined with a substantial increase in price since the low point of the cycle at the beginning of 1973, and a predicted rise of at least 20% in domestic (North American) sales this year over 1974.

  13. Canada's energy future : reference case and scenarios to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Energy is essential to the comfort and economic prosperity of Canadians. This report highlighted some of the issues that Canada faces with respect to its energy future. The report focused on emerging trends in energy supply and demand, and examined various energy futures that may be available to Canadians up to the year 2030. Three different scenarios were presented: (1) a continuing trends scenario; (2) a triple E scenario in which economic, environmental and energy objectives are balanced; and (3) a fortified islands scenario in which security concerns were coupled with international unrest and protectionist governments. The report determined that energy demand will remain a function of population and economic growth. Automobiles will continue to rely on fossil fuels. Energy efficiency will improve in relation to the effectiveness of government policies, and a move towards natural gas alternatives will occur. However, fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy supply. Oil sands production grew in all 3 of the evaluated scenarios. It is expected that total natural gas production will decline and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will increase. In all 3 scenarios greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased or only slightly declined. A full spectrum of GHG mitigation strategies will need to be implemented so that Canada can meet its target of a 20 per cent reduction in GHGs by 2020. It was concluded that effective policies are needed to optimize Canada's multiple objectives of economic growth, environment sustainability, and development of energy resources. 6 tabs., 118 figs

  14. Shaping a sustainable energy future for India: Management challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.

    2010-01-01

    Most of the studies on the Indian energy sector focus on the possible future scenarios of Indian energy system development without considering the management dimension to the problem-how to ensure a smooth transition to reach the desired future state. The purpose of this paper is to highlight some sector management concerns to a sustainable energy future in the country. The paper follows a deductive approach and reviews the present status and possible future energy outlooks from the existing literature. This is followed by a strategy outline to achieve long-term energy sustainability. Management challenges on the way to such a sustainable future are finally presented. The paper finds that the aspiration of becoming an economic powerhouse and the need to eradicate poverty will necessarily mean an increase in energy consumption unless a decoupling of energy and GDP growth is achieved. Consequently, the energy future of the country is eminently unsustainable. A strategy focussing on demand reduction, enhanced access, use of local resources and better management practices is proposed here. However, a sustainable path faces a number of challenges from the management and policy perspectives.

  15. Medical oncology future plan of the Spanish Society of Medical Oncology: challenges and future needs of the Spanish oncologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, F; Andres, R; Felip, E; Garcia-Campelo, R; Lianes, P; Llombart, A; Piera, J M; Puente, J; Rodriguez, C A; Vera, R; Virizuela, J A; Martin, M; Garrido, P

    2017-04-01

    The SEOM Future Plan is aimed at identifying the main challenges, trends and needs of the medical oncology speciality over the next years, including potential oncologist workforce shortages, and proposing recommendations to overcome them. The estimations of the required medical oncologists workforce are based on an updated Medical Oncologist Register in Spain, Medical Oncology Departments activity data, dedication times and projected cancer incidence. Challenges, needs and future recommendations were drawn from an opinion survey and an advisory board. A shortage of 211 FTE medical oncologist specialists has been established. To maintain an optimal ratio of 158 new cases/FTE, medical oncology workforce should reach 1881 FTE by 2035. Main recommendations to face the growing demand and complexity of oncology services include a yearly growth of 2.5% of medical oncologist's workforce until 2035, and development and application of more accurate quality indicators for cancer care and health outcomes measure.

  16. Opportunities for green growth; Vihreaen kasvun mahdollisuudet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antikainen, R.; Mickwitz, P.; Seppaelae, J. [and others

    2013-03-15

    The report seeks an answer to the question as to the kind of policy decisions (steps) by which preconditions for green growth may be created in Finland. The proposed steps are based on a review of earlier research and studies relating to Finland's key consumption and production systems (food, housing, transport and energy) and to certain path finding countries in terms of the green economy (the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Brazil). In addition, the report examines various models by which systemic change towards a green economy may be supported. The report also highlights successful examples of green business activity and measures to promote green growth. Green Growth is defined as low-carbon, resource-efficient economic growth based on safeguarding the functional capacity of ecosystems while promoting wellbeing and social justice. Green growth is considered to have significant worldwide potential, which is currently evident particularly in the rapid growth of cleantech demand. Successful future actors will be more material- and energy-efficient than their competitors, and they will be able to provide services and products flexibly for a low-carbon society. There are opportunities for green growth in all sectors of society. Green growth may consist of an entirely new kind of business activity and create new companies, but there are also opportunities in our traditional energy- and resource-intensive industries. Companies have a key role in growth, but realising green growth also requires changes in consumption. Central, regional and local government will act as facilitators in creating the preconditions for green growth. The report presents a number of policy measures and processes by which Finland can support green growth. Proposals for steps towards green growth include: (A.) Creating preconditions for green growth through a joint vision and political commitment. (B.) Stimulating companies' green growth potential and boosting green demand. (C

  17. AN ANALYSIS OF DOMESTIC AND EXPORT DEMAND FOR U.S. COTTON

    OpenAIRE

    Marseli, Oussama; Epperson, James E.

    2002-01-01

    Expansion of the cotton industry depends on economic growth. Models were specified to estimate U.S. domestic and export demand with and without structural change. The results indicate that domestic demand increases with per capita GDP and decreases with rising oil prices. U.S. export demand for cotton expands with lower beginning stocks in the rest of the world and rising per capita income.

  18. Balancing energy, development and climate priorities in India. Current trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Dhar, S.; Halsnaes, K.

    2007-09-01

    This report gives a short introduction to the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing countries. Furthermore, the report analyses Indian energy, development and climate change, followed by an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. The focus is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. (BA)

  19. Demand as frequency controlled reserve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Z.; Togeby, M.; OEstergaard, J.

    2008-09-15

    Using demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) is an emerging technology which allow demand to participate actively in maintaining the system operation without reducing the energy service delivered to the customer and without need of user interaction. The basic premise is that traditional frequency controlled reserves from power plants and interconnections with neighbouring systems can be costly, slow and not fulfil the need for future power grids with a high share of wind power and fewer central power plants, and an intention to perform flexible operation such as is landing. Electricity demands, on the other hand, have advantages as frequency reserve including fast activation speed, smooth linear activation, low expected costs, and well-dispersed in the distribution grid. The main challenge of DFR is new methods for monitoring the available capacity. This project has investigated the technology of using electricity demands for providing frequency reserve to power systems. Within the project the potential and economy of DFR compatible loads in Denmark has been investigated, control logic has been designed, power system impact has been investigated, potential business models has been evaluated and an implementation strategy has been suggested. The tasks and goals of the project have been successfully accomplished based on which the conclusion and future recommendation are made. This project has developed the DFR technology that enables electricity demands to autonomously disconnect or reconnect to the grid in response to system frequency variations. The developed DFR technology is proved to be a promising technology from several perspectives. Technically, using DFR is feasible to provide reserves and enhance power system frequency control, while fulfilling technical requirements such as linear activation (or reconnection) according to frequency (or time). Environmentally, the DFR technology is pollution free in contrast to traditional reserves from generation

  20. China expands refining sector to handle booming oil demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    China's refining sector is in the midst of a major expansion and reorganization in response to booming domestic demand for petroleum products. Plans call for hiking crude processing capacity to 3.9 million b/d in 1995 from the current 3.085 million b/d. Much of that 26% increase will come where the products demand growth is the strongest: China's coastal provinces, notably those in the southeast. Despite the demand surge, China's refineries operated at only 74% of capacity in 1991, and projections for 1992 weren't much better. Domestic crude supply is limited because of Beijing's insistence on maintaining crude export levels, a major source of hard currency foreign exchange. The paper discusses the superheated demand; exports and imports; the refining infrastructure; the Shenzhen refinery; Hong Kong demand; southeast coast demand; 1993 plans; and foreign investment