WorldWideScience

Sample records for future climatic conditions

  1. Empirical methods for estimating future climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    Applying the empirical approach permits the derivation of estimates of the future climate that are nearly independent of conclusions based on theoretical (model) estimates. This creates an opportunity to compare these results with those derived from the model simulations of the forthcoming changes in climate, thus increasing confidence in areas of agreement and focusing research attention on areas of disagreements. The premise underlying this approach for predicting anthropogenic climate change is based on associating the conditions of the climatic optimums of the Holocene, Eemian, and Pliocene with corresponding stages of the projected increase of mean global surface air temperature. Provided that certain assumptions are fulfilled in matching the value of the increased mean temperature for a certain epoch with the model-projected change in global mean temperature in the future, the empirical approach suggests that relationships leading to the regional variations in air temperature and other meteorological elements could be deduced and interpreted based on use of empirical data describing climatic conditions for past warm epochs. Considerable care must be taken, of course, in making use of these spatial relationships, especially in accounting for possible large-scale differences that might, in some cases, result from different factors contributing to past climate changes than future changes and, in other cases, might result from the possible influences of changes in orography and geography on regional climatic conditions over time

  2. Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-11-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

  3. Diverging responses of tropical Andean biomes under future climate conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Tovar

    Full Text Available Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%-17.4%, there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar

  4. Decision-Support System for Urban Air Pollution under Future Climate Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Jensen , Steen ,; Brandt , Jørgen; Hvidberg , Martin; Ketzel , Matthias; Hedegaard , Gitte ,; Christensen , Jens ,

    2011-01-01

    Part 6: Climate Services and Environmental Tools for Urban Planning and Climate Change Applications and Services; International audience; Climate change is expected to influence urban living conditions and challenge the ability of cities to adapt to and mitigate climate change. Urban climates will be faced with elevated temperatures and future climate conditions are expected to cause higher ozone concentrations, increased biogenic emissions from vegetation, changes in the chemistry of the atm...

  5. Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditionsTIC CONDITIONS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

  6. Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Weiler, Markus; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021-2050 period, while for 2071-2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as "Near-normal", in terms of drought conditions.

  7. Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy

    2015-01-01

    The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

  8. The future bioclimatic conditions in Austria under the aspect of climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudel, E.; Matzarakis, A.; Neumke, R.; Endler, Ch,; Koch, E.

    2009-09-01

    The IPCC quantifies Heat Stress as a combination of air temperature and air humidity. In order to describe the future bioclimatic conditions in a human-biometeorological manner the analysis a modern thermal index has been chosen. The PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) allows the assessment of the effect of the thermal environment based on the energy balance of humans including thermo-physiological information. The data for the calculation of the PET came from climate models. The required data are for the climatic parameters air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and mean cloud cover as the necessary inputs for Physiologically Equivalents Temperature. Regarding future climatic changes PET calculations for the time slices 1961 and 1990 and also 2070 and 2100 have been run in 0.5 ° resolution. By the use of statistical regression for the 0.5 ° resolution the results have been downscaled to 1 km resolution in order to identify and quantify the areas in Austria, which will be more affected bioclimatologically. The constructed maps present current and future climatic conditions and also differences for the different time slices and SRES-scenarios of the IPCC. Maps of the difference between the Physiological Equivalent temperature and air temperature have been constructed to show that the used thermal indices, which have been applied by the IPCC underestimate the expected thermal bioclimate conditions for future climate. The results offer fundamental information for tourism and recreation authorities for present and expected climatic and bioclimatic conditions.

  9. Effects of future climate conditions on terrestrial export from coastal southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project (SBC-LTER) is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export is a central theme for the project. Here we combine the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model and daily precipitation and temperature downscaled using statistical downscaling based on localized constructed Analogs (LOCA) to estimate recent streamflow dynamics (2000 to 2014) and future conditions (2015 to 2100). The HRR model covers the SBC-LTER watersheds from just west of the Ventura River to Point Conception; a land area of roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The downscaled climate conditions have a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. Here, we use the Penman-Monteith method with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites to estimate potential evapotranspiration (PET). The HRR model is calibrated for the period 2000 to 2014 using USGS and LTER streamflow. An automated calibration technique is used. For future climate scenarios, we use mean 8-day land cover conditions. Future streamflow, ET and soil moisture statistics are presented and based on downscaled P and T from ten climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).

  10. A New Framework to Evaluate Urban Design Using Urban Microclimatic Modeling in Future Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dasaraden Mauree

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Building more energy-efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effects of climate change and anticipate living conditions in future climate scenarios requires the development of new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architects and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099 were run, as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P. We analyzed the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of buildings and determined the relevance of taking into account the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations confirmed that in the future, there will be a constant decrease in the heating demand, while the cooling demand will substantially increase. Significantly, it was further demonstrated that when the local urban climate was taken into account, there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand, but also that a set of proposed Minergie-P renovations were not sufficient to achieve resilient buildings. We discuss the implication of this work for the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighborhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspectives regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for future urban areas.

  11. Future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Croce, A.

    1991-01-01

    According to George Woodwell, founder of the Woods Hole Research Center, due the combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation and accelerated respiration, the net annual increase of carbon, in the form of carbon dioxide, to the 750 billion tonnes already present in the earth's atmosphere, is in the order of 3 to 5 billion tonnes. Around the world, scientists, investigating the probable effects of this increase on the earth's future climate, are now formulating coupled air and ocean current models which take account of water temperature and salinity dependent carbon dioxide exchange mechanisms acting between the atmosphere and deep layers of ocean waters

  12. Impact of future climatic conditions on the potential for soil organic matter priming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reinsch, Sabine; Ambus, Per; Thornton, Barry

    2013-01-01

    Terrestrial carbon (C) storage and turnover are of major interest under changing climatic conditions. We present a laboratory microcosm study investigating the effects of anticipated climatic conditions on the soil microbial community and related changes in soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition....... Soil samples were taken from a heath-land after six years of exposure to elevated carbon dioxide (eCO2) in combination with summer drought (D) and increased temperature (T). Soil C-dynamics were investigated in soils from: (i) ambient, (ii) eCO2, and (iii) plots exposed to the combination of factors...... simulating future climatic conditions (TDeCO2) that simulate conditions predicted for Denmark in 2075. 13C enriched glucose (3 atom% excess) was added to soil microcosms, soil CO2 efflux was measured over a period of two weeks and separated into glucose- and SOM-derived C. Microbial biomass was measured...

  13. Prospects for future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    The different climates of the past and model simulations of future climates convincingly indicate that the continuing emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to significant global warming and to changes in precipitation and other climatic variables. The projected changes in atmospheric composition and, consequently, in climatic conditions will be unique and more rapid than at any time in the past. The developing understanding of the chemical cycles controlling atmospheric composition and of the processes and behavior controlling the climate system can provide significant guidance about how the future climate will change. This chapter first summarizes the many scientific advances described in the preceding chapters that can help one better understand and describe the climate system and the resulting agricultural and hydrological impacts of these changes in climate. The chapter then draws from this understanding to outline the prospects for future climate

  14. Environmental impacts of barley cultivation under current and future climatic conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dijkman, Teunis Johannes; Birkved, Morten; Saxe, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    for the increased impacts. This finding was confirmed by the sensitivity analysis. Because this study focused solely on the impacts of climate change, technological improvements and political measures to reduce impacts in the 2050 scenario are not taken into account. Options to mitigate the environmental impacts......The purpose of this work is to compare the environmental impacts of spring barley cultivation in Denmark under current (year 2010) and future (year 2050) climatic conditions. Therefore, a Life Cycle Assessment was carried out for the production of 1 kg of spring barley in Denmark, at farm gate....... Both under 2010 and 2050 climatic conditions, four subscenarios were modelled, based on a combination of two soil types and two climates. Included in the assessment were seed production, soil preparation, fertilization, pesticide application, and harvest. When processes in the life cycle resulted in co...

  15. Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

  16. Energy Saving Potential of PCMs in Buildings under Future Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdo Abdullah Ahmed Gassar

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Energy consumption reduction under changing climate conditions is a major challenge in buildings design, where excessive energy consumption creates an economic and environmental burden. Improving thermal performance of the buildings through support applying phase change material (PCM is a promising strategy for reducing building energy consumption under future climate change. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the energy saving potentials in buildings under future climate conditions in the humid and snowy regions in the hot continental and humid subtropical climates of the east Asia (Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong when various PCMs with different phase change temperatures are applied to a lightweight building envelope. Methodology in this work is implemented in two phases: firstly, investigation of energy saving potentials in buildings through inclusion of three types of PCMs with different phase temperatures into the building envelop separately and use weather file in the present (2017; and, secondly, evaluation of the effect of future climate change on the performance of PCMs by analyzing energy saving potentials of PCMs with 2020, 2050 and 2080 weather data. The results show that the inclusion of PCM into the building envelope is a promising strategy to increase the energy performance in buildings during both heating and cooling seasons in Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong under future climate conditions. The energy savings achieved by using PCMs in those regions are electricity savings of 4.48–8.21%, 3.81–9.69%, and 1.94–5.15%, and gas savings of 1.65–16.59%, 7.60–61.76%, and 62.07–93.33% in Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong, respectively, for the years 2017, 2020, 2050 and 2080. In addition, BioPCM and RUBITHERMPCM are the most efficient for improving thermal performance and saving energy in buildings in the tested regions and years.

  17. Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selsted, Merete Bang

    on ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions, shows that extended summer drought in combination with elevated temperature will ensure permanent dryer soil conditions, which decreases carbon turnover, while elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations will increase...... carbon turnover. In the full future climate scenario, carbon turnover is over all expected to increase and the heathland to become a source of atmospheric CO2. The methodology of static chamber CO2 flux measurements and applying the technology in a FACE (free air CO2 enrichment) facility is a challenge...... on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Photosynthesis and respiration run in parallel during measurements of net ecosystem exchange, and these measurements should therefore be performed with care to both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the CO2 soil-atmosphere gradient....

  18. Mean versus extreme climate in the Mediterranean region and its sensitivity to future global warming conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paeth, H.; Hense, A. [Meteorological Inst., Univ. Bonn (Germany)

    2005-06-01

    The Mediterranean region (MTR) has been supposed to be very sensitive to changes in land surface and atmospheric greenhouse-gas (GHG) concentrations. Particularly, an intensification of climate extremes may be associated with severe socio-economic implications. Here, we present an analysis of climate mean and extreme conditions in this subtropical area based on regional climate model experiments, simulating the present-day and possible future climate. The analysis of extreme values (EVs) is based on the assumption that the extremes of daily precipitation and near-surface temperature are well fitted by the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Return values of extreme daily events are determined using the method of L-moments. Particular emphasis is laid on the evaluation of the return values with respect to the uncertainty range of the estimate as derived from a Monte Carlo sampling approach. During the most recent 25 years the MTR has become dryer in spring but more humid especially in the western part in autumn and winter. At the same time, the whole region has been subject to a substantial warming. The strongest rainfall extremes are simulated in autumn over the Mediterranean Sea around Italy. Temperature extremes are most pronounced over the land masses, especially over northern Africa. Given the large uncertainty of the EV estimate, only 1-year return values are further analysed. During recent decades, statistically significant changes in extremes are only found for temperature. Future climate conditions may come along with a decrease in mean and extreme precipitation during the cold season, whereas an intensification of the hydrological cycle is predicted in summer and autumn. Temperature is predominantly affected over the Iberian Peninsula and the eastern part of the MTR. In many grid boxes, the signals are blurred out due to the large amount of uncertainty in the EV estimate. Thus, a careful analysis is required when making inferences about the future

  19. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2017-10-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  20. Climate change and future overwintering conditions of horticultural woody-plants in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laapas, M.; Jylhae, K.; Tuomenvirta, H. (Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland))

    2012-07-01

    Climate in Finland offers challenging conditions for commercial horticulture. The short and insufficient growing season together with risky overwintering strongly limits species suitable for cultivation. The aim of this study was to examine the climatic conditions around Finland in the aspect of horticulture, focusing on processes relevant to woody plants and species with photoperiod controlled growth cessation, and how these conditions may be expected to change due to the projected global warming. For this, a set of temperature-related indices and threshold events were used. These indices represent the severity of coldness during winter, wintertime thaws, and frost events close to the onset and ending of the growing season. The combined results of 19 GCMs (General Circulation Model) from the CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3) multi-model data set under SRES-B1 and SRES-A2 (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios were used to produce the future projections. By mid-century our results suggest wintertime conditions with reduced cold stress, caused by less frequent and shorter periods of severe frost together with a rise in the extreme minimum temperature. Conversely, an increase in the number and intensity of wintertime thaw events leads to a higher risk in overwintering. Also the risk of spring frost damage is projected to decrease slightly, and the conditions for cold hardening process to improve, as the first autumnal frosts occur later. (orig.)

  1. Rainfall and net infiltration probabilities for future climate conditions at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, A.; Childs, S.W.

    1993-01-01

    Performance assessment of repository integrity is a task rendered difficult because it requires predicting the future. This challenge has occupied many scientists who realize that the best assessments are required to maximize the probability of successful repository sitting and design. As part of a performance assessment effort directed by the EPRI, the authors have used probabilistic methods to assess the magnitude and timing of net infiltration at Yucca Mountain. A mathematical model for net infiltration previously published incorporated a probabilistic treatment of climate, surface hydrologic processes and a mathematical model of the infiltration process. In this paper, we present the details of the climatological analysis. The precipitation model is event-based, simulating characteristics of modern rainfall near Yucca Mountain, then extending the model to most likely values for different degrees of pluvial climates. Next the precipitation event model is fed into a process-based infiltration model that considers spatial variability in parameters relevant to net infiltration of Yucca Mountain. The model predicts that average annual net infiltration at Yucca Mountain will range from a mean of about 1 mm under present climatic conditions to a mean of at least 2.4 mm under full glacial (pluvial) conditions. Considerable variations about these means are expected to occur from year-to-year

  2. Simulation of Deep Water Renewal in Crater Lake, Oregon, USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccolroaz, S.; Wood, T. M.; Wherry, S.; Girdner, S.

    2015-12-01

    We applied a 1-dimensional lake model developed to simulate deep mixing related to thermobaric instabilities in temperate lakes to Crater Lake, a 590-m deep caldera lake in Oregon's Cascade Range known for its stunning deep blue color and extremely clear water, in order to determine the frequency of deep water renewal in future climate conditions. The lake model was calibrated with 6 years of water temperature profiles, and then simulated 10 years of validation data with an RMSE ranging from 0.81°C at 50 m depth to 0.04°C at 350-460 m depth. The simulated time series of heat content in the deep lake accurately captured extreme years characterized by weak and strong deep water renewal. The lake model uses wind speed and lake surface temperature (LST) as boundary conditions. LST projections under six climate scenarios from the CMIP5 intermodel comparison project (2 representative concentration pathways X 3 general circulation models) were evaluated with air2water, a simple lumped model that only requires daily values of downscaled air temperature. air2water was calibrated with data from 1993-2011, resulting in a RMSE between simulated and observed daily LST values of 0.68°C. All future climate scenarios project increased water temperature throughout the water column and a substantive reduction in the frequency of deepwater renewal events. The least extreme scenario (CNRM-CM5, RCP4.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to decrease from about 1 in 2 years in the present to about 1 in 3 years by 2100. The most extreme scenario (HadGEM2-ES, RCP8.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to be less than 1 in 7 years by 2100 and lake surface temperatures never cooling to less than 4°C after 2050. In all RCP4.5 simulations the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C for increasing periods of time. In the RCP8.5 simulations, the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C year round by the year 2060 (HadGEM2

  3. Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

    2012-04-01

    The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

  4. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

    2015-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Future climate impact on unfavorable meteorological conditions for the dispersion of air pollution in Brussels

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Troch, Rozemien; Berckmans, Julie; Giot, Olivier; Hamdi, Rafiq; Termonia, Piet

    2015-04-01

    Belgium is one of the several countries in Europe where air quality levels of different pollutants such as ozone, NOx, and Particulate Matter (PM) still exceed the prescribed European norms multiple times a year (EEA, 2014). These pollution peaks have a great impact on health and environment, in particular in large cities and urban environments. It is well known that observed concentrations of air pollutants are strongly influenced by emissions and meteorological conditions and therefore is sensitive to climate change. As the effects of global climate change are increasingly felt in Belgium, policy makers express growing interest in quantifying its effect on air pollution and the effort required to meet the air quality targets in the next years and decennia (Lauwaet et al., 2014). In this study, two different stability indices are calculated for a 9-year period using present (1991-1999) and future (2047-2055) climate data that has been obtained from a dynamically downscaling of Global Climate Model data from the Arpège model using the ALARO model at 4 km spatial resolution. The ALARO model is described in detail in previous validation studies from De Troch et al. (2013) and Hamdi et al. (2013). The first index gives a measure of the horizontal and vertical transport of nonreactive pollutants in stable atmospheric conditions and has been proposed and tested by Termonia and Quinet (2004). It gives a characteristic length scale l which is the ratio of the mean horizontal wind speed and the Brunt-Väisälä frequency. In this way low values for l in the lower part of the boundary layer during an extended time span of 12 hours, correspond to calm situations and a stable atmosphere and thus indicate unfavorable conditions for the dispersion of air pollution. This transport index is similar to an index used in an old Pasquill-type scheme but is more convenient to use to detect the strongest pollution peaks. The well known Pasquill classes are also calculated in order to

  6. Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang Selsted, M

    2010-07-15

    Global change is a reality. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels are rising as well as mean global temperature and precipitation patterns are changing. These three environmental factors have separately and in combination effect on ecosystem processes. Terrestrial ecosystems hold large amounts of carbon, why understanding plant and soil responses to such changes are necessary, as ecosystems potentially can ameliorate or accelerate global change. To predict the feedback of ecosystems to the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations experiments imitating global change effects are therefore an important tool. This work on ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions, shows that extended summer drought in combination with elevated temperature will ensure permanent dryer soil conditions, which decreases carbon turnover, while elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations will increase carbon turnover. In the full future climate scenario, carbon turnover is over all expected to increase and the heathland to become a source of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. The methodology of static chamber CO{sub 2} flux measurements and applying the technology in a FACE (free air CO{sub 2} enrichment) facility is a challenge. Fluxes of CO{sub 2} from soil to atmosphere depend on a physical equilibrium between those two medias, why it is important to keep the CO{sub 2} gradient between soil and atmosphere unchanged during measurement. Uptake to plants via photosynthesis depends on a physiological process, which depends strongly on the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration. Photosynthesis and respiration run in parallel during measurements of net ecosystem exchange, and these measurements should therefore be performed with care to both the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration and the CO{sub 2} soil-atmosphere gradient. (author)

  7. Effects of future climate conditions on streamflow dynamics in coastal southern California watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J.

    2017-12-01

    The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export of water is a central theme for the project. In this study, the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model is forced with past measurement-based (1950 to 2005) and future model-based (2006 to 2100) precipitation and temperature to estimate daily streamflow dynamics. The study region is roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The model-based forcings are downscaled to a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. The Priestley and Taylor method is used to estimate potential evapotranspiration based on the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites. The HRR model is calibrated for the period 1984 to 2013 using USGS streamflow. Median changes in downscaled precipitation projections from 10 models and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) combined with significance testing, suggest that the distribution of precipitation throughout the rainy season will change: decrease at the beginning of the rainy season (Oct-Dec), increase during peak season (Jan-Mar) and decrease at the end (Apr-Jun). Annually, results suggest a slight increase in precipitation. The decrease of rainfall in spring and fall and increase in winter will lead to a shorter (10-15 days, 8-14%), more intense wet season. Both the magnitude and frequency of large storms (>36 mm/day) are likely to increase. Following the precipitation patterns, streamflow in spring and fall is likely to decrease while winter streamflow and annual peak flows are likely to increase due to increased winter precipitation and

  8. Integrated analysis of present and future responses of precipitation over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2016-03-01

    The assessment of future precipitation variations prevailing in an area is essential for the research regarding climate and climate change. The current paper focuses on 3 selected areas in Greece that present different climatic characteristics due to their location and aims to assess and compare the future variation of annual and seasonal precipitation. Future precipitation data from the ENSEMBLES anthropogenic climate-change (ACC) global simulations and the Climate version of the Local Model (CLM) were obtained and analyzed. The climate simulations were performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under the A1B and B1 scenarios. Mann-Kendall test was applied to investigate possible trends. Spatial distribution of precipitation was performed using a combination of dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques and Kriging method within ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for both scenarios, reference periods and study areas, precipitation is expected to be critically decreased. Additionally, Mann-Kendall test application showed a strong downward trend for every study area. Furthermore, the decrease in precipitation for the Ardas River basin characterized by the continental climate will be tempered, while in the Sperchios River basin it will be smoother due to the influence of some minor climatic variations in the basins' springs in the highlands where milder conditions occur. Precipitation decrease in the Geropotamos River basin which is characterized by Mediterranean climate will be more vigorous. B1 scenario appeared more optimistic for the Ardas and Sperchios River basins, while in the Geropotamos River basin, both applied scenarios brought similar results, in terms of future precipitation response.

  9. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R.M. Forester

    2000-01-01

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog

  10. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R.M. Forester

    2000-03-14

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog.

  11. Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2014-05-01

    Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

  12. Future Climate Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James Houseworth

    2001-01-01

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical Product Input Department''. (BSC 2001b, Addendum B

  13. Wildfire Impacts Upon US Air Quality for Current and Future Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Lamb, B. K.; Tao, I.; Avise, J. C.; Stavros, E. N.; Strand, T. T.; McKenzie, D.; Guenther, A. B.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Salathe, E. P.; Zhang, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Wildfires can have an important impact on regional air quality as they are large and intermittent sources of primary particulates, secondary aerosols, and ozone precursors. As part of an ongoing analysis on the effects of global change upon US air quality, we report results for current and future decade simulations of the inter-relationship among climate change, wildfires and air quality. The results are reported for the Northwest, Southwest, and Central Rockies regions of the US. Meteorological fields from the ECHAM5 global climate model for the IPCC A1B scenario were downscaled using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model to drive the MEGAN biogenic emissions model, a stochastic fire occurrence model, Fire Simulation Builder (FSB), and the CMAQ chemical transport model to predict ozone and aerosol concentrations. Simulations were completed for two nested domains covering most of the northern hemisphere from eastern Asia to North America at 220 km horizontal resolution (hemispheric domain) and covering the continental US at 36 km resolution (CONUS). Sensitivity studies were conducted for representative summer periods with fire occurrence generated from FSB within the current (1995-2004) and future decade (2045-2054) and using current decade historical fire data obtained from the Bureau of Land Management Database. Results are reported in terms of the effects of global change upon fire occurrence, fire plume transport and PM and ozone pollutant levels.

  14. Simulation and Validation of Cisco Lethal Conditions in Minnesota Lakes under Past and Future Climate Scenarios Using Constant Survival Limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liping Jiang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Fish habitat in lakes is strongly constrained by water temperature (T and available dissolved oxygen (DO that are changed under climate warming. A one dimensional, dynamic water quality model MINLAKE2012 was used for T and DO simulation over 48 years. A fish habitat model FishHabitat2013 using simulated T and DO profiles as input was developed to determine lethal conditions of cisco Corgenous artedi in Minnesota lakes. Twenty-three lakes that had observations of cisco mortality or survival in the unusually warm summer of 2006 were used for model validation. The cisco habitat model used a lethal temperature of 22.1 °C and DO survival limit of 3 mg/L determined through model validation and sensitivity analysis. Cisco lethal conditions in 12 shallow, 16 medium-depth, and 30 deep virtual lakes were then simulated. Isopleths of total number of years with cisco kill and average cisco kill days for the years with kills under past (1961–2008 and future climate were generated to understand/extrapolate climate impacts on cisco in 620 Minnesota lakes. Shallow and medium-depth lakes are projected to not be good candidates for cisco refuge lakes, but deep lakes are possible cisco refuge lakes based on lethal condition projection under future warmer climate.

  15. Future Climate Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cambell, C. G.

    2004-01-01

    This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Other alternative

  16. Future Climate Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C. G. Cambell

    2004-09-03

    This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past

  17. Climate - Our future?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schotterer, U.

    1992-01-01

    The aim of this picture-based book is to make climate change understandable to a wider public. Images tell the story, figure captions enhance the essentials. Text passages tie and highlight the story, rather than provide long explanations of complex scientific reasoning. Brief summaries at the end of each chapter review knowledge of which everybody should be aware. They are based on the scientific assessments of the 1990 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report. The climate story is explored from six different angles: the physical system, past changes, how climate affects cultures, how people affect climate, the importance of research and how to view the future

  18. Future Climate Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James Houseworth

    2001-10-12

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical

  19. Natural emissions under future climate condition and their effects on surface ozone in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Min; Shu, Lei; Wang, Ti-jian; Liu, Qian; Gao, Da; Li, Shu; Zhuang, Bing-liang; Han, Yong; Li, Meng-meng; Chen, Pu-long

    2017-02-01

    The natural emissions of ozone precursors (NOx and VOCs) are sensitive to climate. Future climate change can impact O3 concentrations by perturbing these emissions. To better estimate the variation of natural emissions under different climate conditions and understand its effect on surface O3, we model the present and the future air quality over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by running different simulations with the aid of the WRF-CALGRID model system that contains a natural emission module. Firstly, we estimate the natural emissions at present and in IPCC A1B scenario. The results show that biogenic VOC emission and soil NOx emission over YRD in 2008 is 657 Gg C and 19.1 Gg N, respectively. According to climate change, these emissions in 2050 will increase by 25.5% and 11.5%, respectively. Secondly, the effects of future natural emissions and meteorology on surface O3 are investigated and compared. It is found that the variations in meteorological fields can significantly alter the spatial distribution of O3 over YRD, with the increases of 5-15 ppb in the north and the decreases of -5 to -15 ppb in the south. However, only approximately 20% of the surface O3 increases caused by climate change can be attributed to the natural emissions, with the highest increment up to 2.4 ppb. Finally, Ra (the ratio of impacts from NOx and VOCs on O3 formation) and H2O2/HNO3 (the ratio between the concentrations of H2O2 and HNO3) are applied to study the O3 sensitivity in YRD. The results show that the transition value of H2O2/HNO3 will turn from 0.3 to 0.5 in 2008 to 0.4-0.8 in 2050. O3 formation in the YRD region will be insensitive to VOCs under future climate condition, implying more NOx need to be cut down. Our findings can help us understand O3 variation trend and put forward the reasonable and effective pollution control policies in these famous polluted areas.

  20. Future climate. Engineering solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferdinand, J.F.; Hagedorn-Rasmussen, P.; Fonnesbech, B.

    2009-09-15

    Future Climate Engineering Solutions - Joint Report is the common output and a documentation of more than 1 year's effort by 13 engineering associations - in 12 countries - to demonstrate how technologies can combat climate change. The report consists of three parts: Summaries of 10 national climate plans and technology prospects, 5 Key Common Findings, and a Climate Call from Engineers to create a new global climate treaty. The basic assumption of the project is recognition that GHG emissions, and their concentration in the atmosphere, must be reduced to a sustainable level. The project definition of a sustainable level is equivalent to the best-case stabilisation scenario which was presented in the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whereby the global mean temperature is most likely to stabilise at 2.0-2.4 deg. C. The Future Climate website www.futureclimate.info holds more information about the project, including possibility to download project material, including the full national climate plans.

  1. Climate change and wildfire effects in aridland riparian ecosystems: An examination of current and future conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Max Smith; Deborah M. Finch

    2017-01-01

    Aridland riparian ecosystems are limited, the climate is changing, and further hydrological change is likely in the American Southwest. To protect riparian ecosystems and organisms, we need to understand how they are affected by disturbance processes and stressors such as fire, drought, and non-native plant invasions. Riparian vegetation is critically important as...

  2. Framing the future in the Southern United States climate, land use, and forest conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; Thomas L. Mote; J. Marshall Shepherd; K.C. Binita; Christopher W. Strother

    2014-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded, with 90% certainty, that human or “anthropogenic” activities (emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and pollution, landuse/ land-cover change) have altered global temperature patterns over the past 100-150 years (IPCC 2007a). Such temperature changes have a set of cascading, and sometimes amplifying...

  3. Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, João A.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2011-03-01

    The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

  4. The potential impact of invasive woody oil plants on protected areas in China under future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Guanghui; Yang, Jun; Lu, Siran; Huang, Conghong; Jin, Jing; Jiang, Peng; Yan, Pengbo

    2018-01-18

    Biodiesel produced from woody oil plants is considered a green substitute for fossil fuels. However, a potential negative impact of growing woody oil plants on a large scale is the introduction of highly invasive species into susceptible regions. In this study, we examined the potential invasion risk of woody oil plants in China's protected areas under future climate conditions. We simulated the current and future potential distributions of three invasive woody oil plants, Jatropha curcas, Ricinus communis, and Aleurites moluccana, under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) up to 2050 using species distribution models. Protected areas in China that will become susceptible to these species were then identified using a spatial overlay analysis. Our results showed that by 2050, 26 and 41 protected areas would be threatened by these invasive woody oil plants under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. A total of 10 unique forest ecosystems and 17 rare plant species could be potentially affected. We recommend that the invasive potential of woody oil plants be fully accounted for when developing forest-based biodiesel, especially around protected areas.

  5. Assessment of future agricultural conditions in southwestern Africa using fuzzy logic and high-resolution climate model scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weinzierl, Thomas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have a major impact on the arid savanna regions of southwestern Africa, such as the Okavango Basin. Precipitation is a major constraint for agriculture in countries like Namibia and Botswana and assessments of future crop growth conditions are in high demand. This GIS-based approach uses reanalysis data and climate model output for two scenarios and compares them to the precipitation requirements of the five most important crops grown in the region: maize, pearl millet, sorghum, cassava and cow pea. It also takes into account the dominant soil types, as plant growth is also limited by nutrient-poor soils with unfavorable physical and chemical properties. The two factors are then combined using a fuzzy logic algorithm. The assessment visualizes the expected shifts in suitable zones and identifies areas where farming without irrigation may experience a decline in yields or may even no longer be possible at the end of the 21st century. The results show that pearl millet is the most suitable crop in all scenarios while especially the cultivation of maize, sorghum and cow pea may be affected by a possible reduction of precipitation under the high-emission scenario.

  6. Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Quilbé

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Watershed runoff is closely related to land use but this influence is difficult to quantify. This study focused on the Chaudière River watershed (Québec, Canada and had two objectives: (i to quantify the influence of historical agricultural land use evolution on watershed runoff; and (ii to assess the effect of future land use evolution scenarios under climate change conditions (CC. To achieve this, we used the integrated modeling system GIBSI. Past land use evolution was constructed using satellite images that were integrated into GIBSI. The general trend was an increase of agricultural land in the 80's, a slight decrease in the beginning of the 90's and a steady state over the last ten years. Simulations showed strong correlations between land use evolution and water discharge at the watershed outlet. For the prospective approach, we first assessed the effect of CC and then defined two opposite land use evolution scenarios for the horizon 2025 based on two different trends: agriculture intensification and sustainable development. Simulations led to a wide range of results depending on the climatologic models and gas emission scenarios considered, varying from a decrease to an increase of annual and monthly water discharge. In this context, the two land use scenarios induced opposite effects on water discharge and low flow sequences, especially during the growing season. However, due to the large uncertainty linked to CC simulations, it is difficult to conclude that one land use scenario provides a better adaptation to CC than another. Nevertheless, this study shows that land use is a key factor that has to be taken into account when predicting potential future hydrological responses of a watershed.

  7. Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system.

  8. Sustainability of socio-hydro system with changing value and preference to an uncertain future climate and economic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roobavannan, Mahendran; Kandasamy, Jaya; Vigneswaran, Saravanamuththu; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2016-04-01

    Water-human systems are coupled and display co-evolutionary dynamics influenced by society's values and preference. This has been observed in the Murrumbidgee basin, Australia where water usage initially focused on agriculture production and until mid-1990's favoured agriculture. This turned around as society became more concerned about the degradation of ecosystems and ultimately water was reallocated back towards the environment. This new water management adversely impacted the agriculture sector and created economic stress in the basin. The basin communities were able to transform and cope with water allocation favouring the environment through sectoral transformation facilitated by movement of capital in a free economy, supported by appropriate strategies and funding. This was helped by the adaptive capacity of people through reemployment in other economic sectors of the basin economy, unemployment for a period of time and migration out of the basin, and crop diversification. This study looks to the future and focuses on how water managers could be informed and prepare for un-foreseen issues coming out of societies changing values and preferences and emerging as different systems in the basin interact with each other at different times and speed. The issues of this type that concern the Murray Darling Basin Authority include a renewed focus and priority on food production due to food scarcity; increased impact and frequency of natural disasters (eg. climate change); regional economic diversification due to the growth of peri-urban development in the basin; institutional capacity for water reform due to new political paradigms (eg. new water sharing plans); and improvement in science and technology (eg. farm practices, water efficiency, water reuse). To undertake this, the study uses a coupled socio-hydrological dynamical system that model the major drivers of changing economic conditions, society values and preference, climatic condition and science and

  9. Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watersheds using SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrat...

  10. GWAS of Barley Phenotypes Established Under Future Climate Conditions of Elevated Temperature, CO2, O3 and Elevated Temperature and CO2 Combined

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Backes, G.; Lyngkjær, M. F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is likely to decrease crop yields worldwide. Developing climate resilient cultivars is one way to combat this production scarcity, however, little is known of crop response to future climate conditions and in particular the variability within crops.In Scandinavia, barley is widely...... cultivated, but yields have stagnated since the start of this century. In this study we cultivated 138 spring barley accessions in a climate phytotron under four treatments mimicking forecasted levels of temperature, carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and ozone ([O3]) at the end of the 21st century1...... yield, grain protein concentration, grain protein harvested, number of grains, number of ears, aboveground vegetative biomass and harvest index. In addition, stability of the production was calculated over the applied treatments for the assessed parameters.In the climate scenario of elevated temperature...

  11. A Comparative Frequency Analysis of Maximum Daily Rainfall for a SE Asian Region under Current and Future Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Velautham Daksiya

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of changing climate on the frequency of daily rainfall extremes in Jakarta, Indonesia, is analysed and quantified. The study used three different models to assess the changes in rainfall characteristics. The first method involves the use of the weather generator LARS-WG to quantify changes between historical and future daily rainfall maxima. The second approach consists of statistically downscaling general circulation model (GCM output based on historical empirical relationships between GCM output and station rainfall. Lastly, the study employed recent statistically downscaled global gridded rainfall projections to characterize climate change impact rainfall structure. Both annual and seasonal rainfall extremes are studied. The results show significant changes in annual maximum daily rainfall, with an average increase as high as 20% in the 100-year return period daily rainfall. The uncertainty arising from the use of different GCMs was found to be much larger than the uncertainty from the emission scenarios. Furthermore, the annual and wet seasonal analyses exhibit similar behaviors with increased future rainfall, but the dry season is not consistent across the models. The GCM uncertainty is larger in the dry season compared to annual and wet season.

  12. Mitigation potential of horizontal ground coupled heat pumps for current and future climatic conditions: UK environmental modelling and monitoring studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García González, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Gan, Guohui; Wu, Yupeng; Hughes, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Blyth, Eleanor; Finch, Jon; Main, Bruce

    2010-05-01

    An increased uptake of alternative low or non-CO2 emitting energy sources is one of the key priorities for policy makers to mitigate the effects of environmental change. Relatively little work has been undertaken on the mitigation potential of Ground Coupled Heat Pumps (GCHPs) despite the fact that a GCHP could significantly reduce CO2 emissions from heating systems. It is predicted that under climate change the most probable scenario is for UK temperatures to increase and for winter rainfall to become more abundant; the latter is likely to cause a general rise in groundwater levels. Summer rainfall may reduce considerably, while vegetation type and density may change. Furthermore, recent studies underline the likelihood of an increase in the number of heat waves. Under such a scenario, GCHPs will increasingly be used for cooling as well as heating. These factors will affect long-term performance of horizontal GCHP systems and hence their economic viability and mitigation potential during their life span ( 50 years). The seasonal temperature differences encountered in soil are harnessed by GCHPs to provide heating in the winter and cooling in the summer. The performance of a GCHP system will depend on technical factors (heat exchanger (HE) type, length, depth, and spacing of pipes), but also it will be determined to a large extent by interactions between the below-ground parts of the system and the environment (atmospheric conditions, vegetation and soil characteristics). Depending on the balance between extraction and rejection of heat from and to the ground, the soil temperature in the neighbourhood of the HE may fall or rise. The GROMIT project (GROund coupled heat pumps MITigation potential), funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (UK), is a multi-disciplinary research project, in collaboration with EarthEnergy Ltd., which aims to quantify the CO2 mitigation potential of horizontal GCHPs. It considers changing environmental conditions and combines

  13. Investigating Future Climate Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dempsey, Chris; Bodzin, Alec; Anastasio, David; Sahagian, Dork; Cirucci, Lori

    2012-01-01

    One of the most alarming impacts of projected climate change is a significant rise in sea level. Sea level has varied by hundreds of meters over geologic time, yet these changes have generally been slow paced, allowing ecosystems to adjust to changing land surface and marine habitats. Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic emissions have…

  14. Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

    2017-12-01

    Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  15. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2007-02-15

    Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

  16. The futures of climate engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Low, Sean

    2017-01-01

    This piece examines the need to interrogate the role of the conceptions of the future, as embedded in academic papers, policy documents, climate models, and other artifacts that serve as currencies of the science-society interface, in shaping scientific and policy agendas in climate engineering. Growing bodies of work on framings, metaphors, and models in the past decade serve as valuable starting points, but can benefit from integration with science and technology studies work on the sociology of expectations, imaginaries, and visions. Potentially valuable branches of work to come might be the anticipatory use of the future: the design of experimental spaces for exploring the future of an engineered climate in service of responsible research and innovation, and the integration of this work within the unfolding context of the Paris Agreement.

  17. Nuclear energy - the future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ash, Eric Sir

    2000-01-01

    In June 1999, a report entitled Nuclear Energy-The Future Climate was published and was the result of a collaboration between the Royal Society and the Royal Academy of Engineering. The report was the work of a group of nine people, made up of scientists, engineers and an economist, whose purpose was to attempt a new and objective look at the total energy scene and specifically the future role of nuclear energy. This paper discusses the findings of that report. (author)

  18. Securing the Future of Cultural Heritage by Identifying Barriers to and Strategizing Solutions for Preservation under Changing Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Fatorić

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change challenges cultural heritage management and preservation. Understanding the barriers that can impede preservation is of paramount importance, as is developing solutions that facilitate the planning and management of vulnerable cultural resources. Using online survey research, we elicited the opinions of diverse experts across southeastern United States, a region with cultural resources that are particularly vulnerable to flooding and erosion from storms and sea level rise. We asked experts to identify the greatest challenges facing cultural heritage policy and practice from coastal climate change threats, and to identify strategies and information needs to overcome those challenges. Using content analysis, we identified institutional, technical and financial barriers and needs. Findings revealed that the most salient barriers included the lack of processes and preservation guidelines for planning and implementing climate adaptation actions, as well as inadequate funding and limited knowledge about the intersection of climate change and cultural heritage. Experts perceived that principal needs to overcome identified barriers included increased research on climate adaptation strategies and impacts to cultural heritage characteristics from adaptation, as well as collaboration among diverse multi-level actors. This study can be used to set cultural heritage policy and research agendas at local, state, regional and national scales.

  19. Preconditioning in the reef-building coral Pocillopora damicornis and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization in coral larvae under future climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putnam, Hollie M; Gates, Ruth D

    2015-08-01

    Coral reefs are globally threatened by climate change-related ocean warming and ocean acidification (OA). To date, slow-response mechanisms such as genetic adaptation have been considered the major determinant of coral reef persistence, with little consideration of rapid-response acclimatization mechanisms. These rapid mechanisms such as parental effects that can contribute to trans-generational acclimatization (e.g. epigenetics) have, however, been identified as important contributors to offspring response in other systems. We present the first evidence of parental effects in a cross-generational exposure to temperature and OA in reef-building corals. Here, we exposed adults to high (28.9°C, 805 µatm P(CO2)) or ambient (26.5°C, 417 µatm P(CO2)) temperature and OA treatments during the larval brooding period. Exposure to high treatment negatively affected adult performance, but their larvae exhibited size differences and metabolic acclimation when subsequently re-exposed, unlike larvae from parents exposed to ambient conditions. Understanding the innate capacity corals possess to respond to current and future climatic conditions is essential to reef protection and maintenance. Our results identify that parental effects may have an important role through (1) ameliorating the effects of stress through preconditioning and adaptive plasticity, and/or (2) amplifying the negative parental response through latent effects on future life stages. Whether the consequences of parental effects and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization are beneficial or maladaptive, our work identifies a critical need to expand currently proposed climate change outcomes for corals to further assess rapid response mechanisms that include non-genetic inheritance through parental contributions and classical epigenetic mechanisms. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  20. Grain protein concentration and harvestable protein under future climate conditions. A study of 108 spring barley accessions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Gislum, René; Jørgensen, Johannes Ravn

    2016-01-01

    In the present study a set of 108 spring barley (H. vulgare L.) accessions were cultivated under predicted future levels of temperature and [CO2] as single factors and in combination (IPCC, AR5, RCP8.5). Across all genotypes, elevated [CO2] (700 ppm day/night) slightly decreased protein concentra......In the present study a set of 108 spring barley (H. vulgare L.) accessions were cultivated under predicted future levels of temperature and [CO2] as single factors and in combination (IPCC, AR5, RCP8.5). Across all genotypes, elevated [CO2] (700 ppm day/night) slightly decreased protein...

  1. Short-term utilization of carbon by the soil microbial community under future climatic conditions in a temperate heathland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reinsch, Sabine; Michelsen, Anders; Sárossy, Zsuzsa

    2014-01-01

    An in-situ13C pulse-labeling experiment was carried out in a temperate heath/grassland to study the impacts of elevated CO2 concentration (510ppm), prolonged summer droughts (annual exclusion of 7.6±0.8%) and increased temperature (~1°C) on belowground carbon (C) utilization. Recently assimilated C...... (13C from the pulse-label) was traced into roots, soil and microbial biomass 1, 2 and 8 days after pulse-labeling. The importance of the microbial community in C utilization was investigated using 13C enrichment patterns in different microbial functional groups on the basis of phospholipid fatty acid...... (PLFA) biomarker profiles. Climate treatments did not affect microbial abundance in soil or rhizosphere fractions in terms of total PLFA-C concentration. Elevated CO2 significantly reduced the abundance of gram-negative bacteria (17:0cy), but did not affect the abundance of decomposers (fungi...

  2. Climate Change Impacts on Future Wave Climate around the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William G. Bennett

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the changes in future storm wave climate is crucial for coastal managers and planners to make informed decisions required for sustainable coastal management and for the renewable energy industry. To investigate potential future changes to storm climate around the UK, global wave model outputs of two time slice experiments were analysed with 1979–2009 representing present conditions and 2075–2100 representing the future climate. Three WaveNet buoy sites around the United Kingdom, which represent diverse site conditions and have long datasets, were chosen for this study. A storm event definition (Dissanayake et al., 2015 was used to separate meteorologically-independent storm events from wave data, which in turn allowed storm wave characteristics to be analysed. Model outputs were validated through a comparison of the modelled storm data with observed storm data for overlapping periods. Although no consistent trends across all future clusters were observed, there were no significant increases in storm wave height, storm count or storm power in the future, at least according to the global wave projection results provided by the chosen model.

  3. Climate change and health in Earth's future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, Devin C.; Butler, Colin D.; Friel, Sharon

    2014-02-01

    Threats to health from climate change are increasingly recognized, yet little research into the effects upon health systems is published. However, additional demands on health systems are increasingly documented. Pathways include direct weather impacts, such as amplified heat stress, and altered ecological relationships, including alterations to the distribution and activity of pathogens and vectors. The greatest driver of demand on future health systems from climate change may be the alterations to socioeconomic systems; however, these "tertiary effects" have received less attention in the health literature. Increasing demands on health systems from climate change will impede health system capacity. Changing weather patterns and sea-level rise will reduce food production in many developing countries, thus fostering undernutrition and concomitant disease susceptibility. Associated poverty will impede people's ability to access and support health systems. Climate change will increase migration, potentially exposing migrants to endemic diseases for which they have limited resistance, transporting diseases and fostering conditions conducive to disease transmission. Specific predictions of timing and locations of migration remain elusive, hampering planning and misaligning needs and infrastructure. Food shortages, migration, falling economic activity, and failing government legitimacy following climate change are also "risk multipliers" for conflict. Injuries to combatants, undernutrition, and increased infectious disease will result. Modern conflict often sees health personnel and infrastructure deliberately targeted and disease surveillance and eradication programs obstructed. Climate change will substantially impede economic growth, reducing health system funding and limiting health system adaptation. Modern medical care may be snatched away from millions who recently obtained it.

  4. Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L. for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian-Ge Hu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate niche modeling has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees at the species level. However, geographically divergent tree populations are expected to respond differently to climate change. Considering intraspecific local adaptation in modeling species responses to climate change will thus improve the credibility and usefulness of climate niche models, particularly for genetic resources management. In this study, we used five Platycladus orientalis (L. seed zones (Northwestern; Northern; Central; Southern; and Subtropical covering the entire species range in China. A climate niche model was developed and used to project the suitable climatic conditions for each of the five seed zones for current and various future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Our results indicated that the Subtropical seed zone would show consistent reduction for all climate change scenarios. The remaining seed zones, however, would experience various degrees of expansion in suitable habitat relative to their current geographic distributions. Most of the seed zones would gain suitable habitats at their northern distribution margins and higher latitudes. Thus, we recommend adjusting the current forest management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

  5. Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Sadeghi, Ali M.; Yeo, In-Young; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, W. Dean

    2017-01-01

    Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrate loads from agriculture. Accordingly, the question remains whether WCCs are sufficient to mitigate increased nutrient loads caused by FCCs. In this study, we assessed the impacts of FCCs on WCC nitrate reduction efficiency on the Coastal Plain of the CBW using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Three FCC scenarios (2085 – 2098) were prepared using General Circulation Models (GCMs), considering three Intergovernmnental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We also developed six representative WCC implementation scenarios based on the most commonly used planting dates and species of WCCs in this region. Simulation results showed that WCC biomass increased by ~ 58 % under FCC scenarios, due to climate conditions conducive to the WCC growth. Prior to implementing WCCs, annual nitrate loads increased by ~ 43 % under FCC scenarios compared to the baseline scenario (2001 – 2014). When WCCs were planted, annual nitrate loads were substantially reduced by ~ 48 % and WCC nitrate reduction efficiency water ~ 5 % higher under FCC scenarios relative to the baseline. The increase rate of WCC nitrate reduction efficiency varied by FCC scenarios and WCC planting methods. As CO2 concentration was higher and winters were warmer under FCC scenarios, WCCs had greater biomass and therefore showed higher nitrate reduction efficiency. In response to FCC scenarios, the performance of less effective WCC practices (e.g., barley, wheat, and late planting) under the baseline indicated ~ 14 % higher increase rate of nitrate reduction efficiency compared to ones with better effectiveness under the baseline (e

  6. The past and future of the climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz, J. E.; Valle, M.; Delgado, A.; Solar, V.

    2008-01-01

    One of the subjects of research included in the EURATOM Framework Programmes was analysis of climate change as a basis for prediction allowing for assessment of the risks for the safety of radioactive waste repositories that will arise as a result of future climate alterations. Everything seems to suggest that there is no going back on the current process of climate change and that it will be necessary to wait for a geological period to pass to get close again to the conditions that existed before the industrial revolution. One way or another, an attempt to correct the impact of climate change would appear to be essential, in order to ensure a soft landing in the new situation. It is possible that this might be achieved only through an elementary approach based on social awareness, renewable energy sources and nuclear power, accompanied by new research projects making it possible to determine the way in which the influence of mankind has been felt since the 19th century. (Author)

  7. Projected climate change futures for Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tadross, M

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa. In these experiments, a variable-resolution atmospheric global circulation model, CCAM, was applied as a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate both present-day and future climate... climate projection Observed climate RCM Climate forcing Climate simulation Statistical downscaling Dynamical downscaling 22 | Second Edition There are four pathways – RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. RCP 2.6 describes a scenario of very low...

  8. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Vial, Jessica; Brun, Eric; Cattiaux, Julien; Chauvin, Fabrice; Salas y Melia, David; Voldoire, Aurore; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Ciais, Philippe; Yiou, Pascal; Guilyardi, Eric; Mignot, Juliette; Guivarch, Celine

    2015-01-01

    Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

  9. Climatic Change--Past, Present & Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindholm, Roy C.

    1976-01-01

    Presented is a review of studies investigating factors affecting climatic changes in the Earth's atmosphere--past, present, and future. Dating methods, particularly the Oxygen 18/16 method, are discussed. (SL)

  10. Future climate change over Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis, Claire L

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents key messages drawn from recent subsets of future climate projections for the southern Africa region. Material in this chapter is drawn from Chapter 3 of Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa (Davis 2011...

  11. Climate Change and Future World

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    of water-borne diseases such as cholera and malaria which, if uncontrolled, could generate epidemics.27 More frequent and more intense extreme 7... Mexico , and the United States. All these trends produced by climate change are likely to increase migration movements to the U.S., and the occurrence

  12. Climate change projections: past and future mysteries of climate science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehl, Gerald A.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The history of climate change has been wrapped in mysteries. Some have been solved, and we await the outcome of others. The major mystery of 20th century climate was why did temperatures rise in the early part of the century, level off, and then rise rapidly again after the 1970s? It has only been in the past seven years that advances in climate modelling have allowed us to deconstruct 20th century climate to pull apart the separate influences of natural and human-caused factors. This has allowed us to understand the subtle interplay between these various influences that produced the temperature time evolution. Another mystery has involved extreme weather and climate events. Again, climate models have allowed us to quantify how the small changes in average climate translate into much larger changes of regional extremes. The biggest remaining mysteries in climate science involve the future, and how the climate will evolve over the coming century. Up until now, various scenarios postulating different possible outcomes for 21st century climate, assuming different types of human activities, have been run in the climate models to provide a wide range of possible futures. However, more recently the outlook for global warming is being framed as a combination of mitigation and adaptation. If policy actions are taken to mitigate part of the problem of global warming, then climate models must be relied on to quantify the time-evolving picture of how much regional climate change we must adapt to. Solving this mystery will be the biggest and most important challenge ever taken on by the climate modelling community

  13. The significance of climate change in the Netherlands. An analysis of historical and future trends (1901-2020) in weather conditions, weather extremes and temperature-related impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Visser, H.

    2005-07-01

    A rigorous statistical analysis reveals changes in Dutch climate that are statistically significant over the last century. Annually averaged temperatures have increased by 1.5 about 0.5 degrees Centigrade; the number of summer days has roughly doubled from 14 about 5 to 27 about 9 days; annual precipitation has increased by 120 about 100 mm; and the number of extremely wet days has increased by about 40%, from 19 about 3 to 26 about 3 days. Several other changes in Dutch climate, such as spring temperatures rising more rapidly than winter temperatures, the increase of the coldest temperature in each year by 0.9 degrees Centigrade and the annual maximum day sum of precipitation, turn out to be not (yet) statistically significant. The changes in Dutch climate have already led to several statistically significant impacts. The length of the growing season has increased by nearly a month, and the number of heating-degree days, a measure for the energy needed for the heating of houses and buildings, has decreased by 14 about 5%. Projections of future temperature increase in 2020 based on the statistical analysis closely resemble projections based on climate models: temperatures continue to increase from 10.4 about 0.4 degrees Centigrade in 2003 to 10.7 about 0.6 degrees Centigrade in 2010 and 11.1 about 1.0 degrees Centigrade in 2020. The energy needed for heating of houses and buildings is expected to decrease further. This warming effect is expected to lower projections of future Dutch greenhouse-gas emissions by 3.5 Mton CO2 equivalents, which is relevant in the context of commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Finally, over the course of the 20th century the chance on an 'Elfstedentocht', an outdoor skating event in the Netherlands, has decreased from once every five years to once every ten years. Even though this impact change is not yet statistically significant, it resides 'on the edge' of significance: within a few years more evidence may

  14. Assessing the importance of spatio-temporal RCM resolution when estimating sub-daily extreme precipitation under current and future climate conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Luchner, J.; Onof, C.

    2017-01-01

    extreme precipitation over Denmark generated by the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM-ECEARTH at different spatial resolutions (8, 12, 25 and 50km), three RCM from the RiskChange project at 8km resolution and three RCMs from ENSEMBLES at 25km resolution at temporal aggregations from 1 to 48h...... are more skewed than the observational dataset, which leads to an overestimation by the higher spatial resolution simulations. Nevertheless, in general, under current conditions RCM simulations at high spatial resolution represent extreme events and high-order moments better. The changes projected...

  15. Climate change feedbacks on future oceanic acidification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNeil, Ben I.; Matear, Richard J.

    2007-01-01

    Oceanic anthropogenic CO 2 uptake will decrease both the pH and the aragonite saturation state (Oarag) of seawater leading to an oceanic acidification. However, the factors controlling future changes in pH and Oarag are independent and will respond differently to oceanic climate change feedbacks such as ocean warming, circulation and biological changes. We examine the sensitivity of these two CO 2 -related parameters to climate change feedbacks within a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. The ocean warming feedback was found to dominate the climate change responses in the surface ocean. Although surface pH is projected to decrease relatively uniformly by about 0.3 by the year 2100, we find pH to be insensitive to climate change feedbacks, whereas Oarag is buffered by ∼15%. Ocean carbonate chemistry creates a situation whereby the direct pH changes due to ocean warming are almost cancelled by the pH changes associated with dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations changes via a reduction in CO 2 solubility from ocean warming. We show that the small climate change feedback on future surface ocean pH is independent to the amount of ocean warming. Our analysis therefore implies that future projections of surface ocean acidification only need to consider future atmospheric CO 2 levels, not climate change induced modifications in the ocean

  16. Potential future impacts of climatic change on the Great Plains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1991-01-01

    A synopsis is provided of approaches to impact studies in the Great Plains, findings from studies of future impacts are summarized, and opportunities for enhancing understanding of future impacts are discussed. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources, forestry, recreation/tourism, and energy are summarized. Impact analyses need to look more rigorously at variability in climate, the probabilities of various climatic conditions, and the sensitivity of social and economic activities to climatic variability. Most economic impact studies have assumed no adaptive behavior on the part of economic decision makers. Credible impact assessments require an improved understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of sectors to climatic conditions, particularly variability. The energy sector in the Great Plains region is likely to be more sensitive to political developments in the Middle East than to climatic variability and change. Speculation and analysis of climate impacts have focused on supply conditions and demands, yet the sector is more keenly sensitive to policy implications of climatic change, such as the potential for fossil fuel taxes or other legislative or pricing constraints. 28 refs

  17. Large scale groundwater flow and hexavalent chromium transport modeling under current and future climatic conditions: the case of Asopos River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dokou, Zoi; Karagiorgi, Vasiliki; Karatzas, George P; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos P; Kalogerakis, Nicolas

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, high concentrations of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), have been observed in the groundwater system of the Asopos River Basin, raising public concern regarding the quality of drinking and irrigation water. The work described herein focuses on the development of a groundwater flow and Cr(VI) transport model using hydrologic, geologic, and water quality data collected from various sources. An important dataset for this goal comprised an extensive time series of Cr(VI) concentrations at various locations that provided an indication of areas of high concentration and also served as model calibration locations. Two main sources of Cr(VI) contamination were considered in the area: anthropogenic contamination originating from Cr-rich industrial wastes buried or injected into the aquifer and geogenic contamination from the leaching process of ophiolitic rocks. The aquifer's response under climatic change scenario A2 was also investigated for the next two decades. Under this scenario, it is expected that rainfall, and thus infiltration, will decrease by 7.7 % during the winter and 15 % during the summer periods. The results for two sub-scenarios (linear and variable precipitation reduction) that were implemented based on A2 show that the impact on the study aquifer is moderate, resulting in a mean level decrease less than 1 m in both cases. The drier climatic conditions resulted in higher Cr(VI) concentrations, especially around the industrial areas.

  18. Orographic cirrus in a future climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Joos

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available A cloud resolving model (CRM is used to investigate the formation of orographic cirrus clouds in the current and future climate. The formation of cirrus clouds depends on a variety of dynamical and thermodynamical processes, which act on different scales. First, the capability of the CRM in realistically simulating orographic cirrus clouds has been tested by comparing the simulated results to aircraft measurements of an orographic cirrus cloud. The influence of a warmer climate on the microphysical and optical properties of cirrus clouds has been investigated by initializing the CRM with vertical profiles of horizontal wind, potential temperature and equivalent potential temperature, respectively. The vertical profiles are extracted from IPCC A1B simulations for the current climate and for the period 2090–2099 for two regions representative for North and South America. The influence of additional moisture in a future climate on the propagation of gravity waves and the formation of orographic cirrus could be estimated. In a future climate, the increase in moisture dampens the vertical propagation of gravity waves and the occurring vertical velocities in the moist simulations. Together with higher temperatures fewer ice crystals nucleate homogeneously. Assuming that the relative humidity does not change in a warmer climate the specific humidity in the model is increased. This increase in specific humidity in a warmer climate results in a higher ice water content. The net effect of a reduced ice crystal number concentration and a higher ice water content is an increased optical depth. However, in some moist simulations dynamical changes contribute to changes in the ice water content, ice crystal number concentration and optical depth. For the corresponding dry simulations dynamical changes are more pronounced leading to a decreased optical depth in a future climate in some cases.

  19. Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

    2016-01-01

    Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as

  20. Climate Change and Future Fire Regimes: Examples from California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon E. Keeley

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation

  1. Ocean climate and seal condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crocker Daniel E

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The condition of many marine mammals varies with fluctuations in productivity and food supply in the ocean basin where they forage. Prey is impacted by physical environmental variables such as cyclic warming trends. The weaning weight of northern elephant seal pups, Mirounga angustirostris, being closely linked to maternal condition, indirectly reflects prey availability and foraging success of pregnant females in deep waters of the northeastern Pacific. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of ocean climate on foraging success in this deep-diving marine mammal over the course of three decades, using cohort weaning weight as the principal metric of successful resource accrual. Results The mean annual weaning weight of pups declined from 1975 to the late 1990s, a period characterized by a large-scale, basin-wide warm decadal regime that included multiple strong or long-duration El Niños; and increased with a return to a cool decadal regime from about 1999 to 2004. Increased foraging effort and decreased mass gain of adult females, indicative of reduced foraging success and nutritional stress, were associated with high ocean temperatures. Conclusion Despite ranging widely and foraging deeply in cold waters beyond coastal thermoclines in the northeastern Pacific, elephant seals are impacted significantly by ocean thermal dynamics. Ocean warming redistributes prey decreasing foraging success of females, which in turn leads to lower weaning mass of pups. Annual fluctuations in weaning mass, in turn, reflect the foraging success of females during the year prior to giving birth and signals changes in ocean temperature cycles.

  2. Adaptation to floods in future climate: a practical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata; Radon, Radoslaw; Hisdal, Hege

    2016-04-01

    In this study some aspects of the application of the 1D hydraulic model are discussed with a focus on its suitability for flood adaptation under future climate conditions. The Biała Tarnowska catchment is used as a case study. A 1D hydraulic model is developed for the evaluation of inundation extent and risk maps in future climatic conditions. We analyse the following flood indices: (i) extent of inundation area; (ii) depth of water on flooded land; (iii) the flood wave duration; (iv) the volume of a flood wave over the threshold value. In this study we derive a model cross-section geometry following the results of primary research based on a 500-year flood inundation extent. We compare two methods of localisation of cross-sections from the point of view of their suitability to the derivation of the most precise inundation outlines. The aim is to specify embankment heights along the river channel that would protect the river valley in the most vulnerable locations under future climatic conditions. We present an experimental design for scenario analysis studies and uncertainty reduction options for future climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

  3. Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, David S.; Davis, Michael G.

    2010-09-01

    Questions about global warming concern climate scientists and the general public alike. Specifically, what are the reliable surface temperature reconstructions over the past few centuries? And what are the best predictions of global temperature change the Earth might expect for the next century? Recent publications [National Research Council (NRC), 2006; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007] permit these questions to be answered in a single informative illustration by assembling temperature reconstructions of the past thousand years with predictions for the next century. The result, shown in Figure 1, illustrates present and future warming in the context of natural variations in the past [see also Oldfield and Alverson, 2003]. To quote a Chinese proverb, “A picture's meaning can express ten thousand words.” Because it succinctly captures past inferences and future projections of climate, the illustration should be of interest to scientists, educators, policy makers, and the public.

  4. Hotter and drier conditions in the near future (2010-2035) might paradoxically improve the general adaptive capacity of a viticultural social-ecological system in Roussillon, southern France, exposed to long-term climatic and economic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lereboullet, Anne-Laure; Beltrando, Gérard

    2014-05-01

    Background: Wine production in Roussillon, southern France, has been subjected to deep structural changes in cultural practices since the 1970's, due to changes in demand and market organization. In this Mediterranean region, temperature and rainfall parameters have long been adapted to fortified wine production, but might be less suited to dry wine production, which is nowadays prevailing. The wine industry in Roussillon can be studied as a social-ecological system where local economical and social characteristics are strongly linked to physical inputs. Thus changes in climate, especially warming and drying trends that have been detected and projected by the IPCC in the Mediterranean basin, may disrupt the local economy and social organization in the long term. The aim of our study is to assess the role played by recent (1956-2010) and near-future (2010-2035) changes in temperature and rainfall inputs in the evolution of the system's adaptive capacity to combined long term climatic and economic changes. Methods: Our study combined quantitative and qualitative data. We first assessed recent exposure to climate change by analysing change in daily data of temperature and rainfall observed in Perpignan weather station from 1956 to 2010. Thirty-nine in-depth interviews with local producers and key stakeholders of the local wine industry helped us understand the impacts of recent climatic conditions in the system's adaptive capacity. Then, we measured future changes in temperature and rainfall based on daily data simulated by ARPEGE-Climat (SCRATCH10 dataset) at an 8-km spatial scale, for emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1, up to 2060. Based on the impacts of recent changes in the system, we inferred the possible impacts of future climate change on the system's equilibrium. Results and discussion: Climate data analyses show that changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns have occurred in Perpignan since the mid-1980's, and that current (2001-2010) conditions are

  5. Climate change impact on future ocean acidification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNeil, Ben

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Elevated atmospheric C02 levels and associated uptake by the ocean is changing its carbon chemistry, leading to an acidification. The implications of future ocean acidification on the marine ecosystem are unclear but seemingly detrimental particularly to those organisms and phytoplankton that secrete calcium carbonate (like corals). Here we present new results from the Australian CSIRO General Circulation Model that predicts the changing nature of oceanic carbon chemistry in response to future climate change feedbacks (circulation, temperature and biological). We will discuss the implications of future ocean acidification and the potential implications on Australia's marine ecosystems

  6. Climate change feedbacks on future oceanic acidification

    OpenAIRE

    McNeil, Ben I.; Matear, Richard J.

    2011-01-01

    Oceanic anthropogenic CO2 uptake will decrease both the pH and the aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) of seawater leading to an oceanic acidification. However, the factors controlling future changes in pH and Ωarag are independent and will respond differently to oceanic climate change feedbacks such as ocean warming, circulation and biological changes. We examine the sensitivity of these two CO2-related parameters to climate change feedbacks within a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. The ocean ...

  7. Regulatory perspective on future climates at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, N.M.; Eisenberg, N.A.; Brooks, D.J.

    1996-01-01

    Current regulations of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require that any performance assessment supporting the license application for a high-level waste (HLW) repository must consider the potential for changes in hydrologic conditions caused by reasonably foreseeable climatic conditions. The requirement is important because the earth's climate will almost certainly change significantly during the thousands of years that disposed nuclear wastes will remain hazardous. More importantly, climate controls the range of precipitation, which in turn controls the rates of infiltration, deep percolation, and groundwater flux through a geologic repository located in an unsaturated environment. Therefore, future changes in climate could significantly influence waste isolation in a repository at Yucca Mountain

  8. When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, Timothy; Lewandowsky, Stephan

    2015-11-28

    Climate change projections necessarily involve uncertainty. Analysis of the physics and mathematics of the climate system reveals that greater uncertainty about future temperature increases is nearly always associated with greater expected damages from climate change. In contrast to those normative constraints, uncertainty is frequently cited in public discourse as a reason to delay mitigative action. This failure to understand the actual implications of uncertainty may incur notable future costs. It is therefore important to communicate uncertainty in a way that improves people's understanding of climate change risks. We examined whether responses to projections were influenced by whether the projection emphasized uncertainty in the outcome or in its time of arrival. We presented participants with statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification and a decrease in arctic sea ice. In the uncertain-outcome condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected outcome at a fixed time point. In the uncertain time-of-arrival condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival for a fixed outcome. Results suggested that people perceived the threat as more serious and were more likely to encourage mitigative action in the time-uncertain condition than in the outcome-uncertain condition. This finding has implications for effectively communicating the climate change risks to policy-makers and the general public. © 2015 The Author(s).

  9. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  10. The Future of Climate Science (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, R.

    2010-12-01

    High Performance Computing is currently deployed in several centers for climate research, but not at the levels needed to achieve substantial success on a global basis, given the complexity of the problem. A quantum leap in capabilities will be necessary to handle next-generation climate models that integrate newly emerging sciences, high-resolution grids, and voluminous observational data from satellites and sophisticated ground devices. Dr. Bishop will discuss efforts to build an International Centre for Earth Simulation (ICES) based in Switzerland that takes an holistic systems approach, and that has the competence and resources to achieve new insights in this new decade, and is capable to globally influence public policy with respect to weather, climate, environment, disaster risk reduction and socio-economic development. On this progressively crowded and fragile planet, such a capability will be invaluable, Bishop believes, if not imperative, for our long-term survival. ICES could serve as a test-bed for large scale public and private development planning. Decision makers could ask ‘what if’ questions for major construction projects (such as China’s Three Gorges Dam), and then interactively evaluate alternative scenarios. Likewise, ICES could help uncover the possible unintended consequences of climate remediation and adaptation strategies, geo-engineering ideas, CO2 sequestration, deep sea drilling, etc. ICES would be a resource for building more resilient societies in an era of rapid climate change and frequent natural disasters (such as flooding, extreme weather events and volcanic ash clouds), and therefore of great consequence to our future well-being. It would ultimately play a major role in the education and training of policy-makers, the public, and future Earth Scientists - in conjunction with the current national and regional centers.

  11. Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the

  12. Rainwater catchment system design using simulated future climate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Corey D.; Bailey, Ryan T.; Arabi, Mazdak

    2015-10-01

    Rainwater harvesting techniques are used worldwide to augment potable water supply, provide water for small-scale irrigation practices, increase rainwater-use efficiency for sustained crop growth in arid and semi-arid regions, decrease urban stormwater flow volumes, and in general to relieve dependency on urban water resources cycles. A number of methods have been established in recent years to estimate reliability of rainwater catchment systems (RWCS) and thereby properly size the components (roof catchment area, storage tank size) of the system for a given climatic region. These methods typically use historical or stochastically-generated rainfall patterns to quantify system performance and optimally size the system, with the latter accounting for possible rainfall scenarios based on statistical relationships of historical rainfall patterns. To design RWCS systems that can sustainably meet water demand under future climate conditions, this paper introduces a method that employs climatic data from general circulation models (GCMs) to develop a suite of catchment area vs. storage size design curves that capture uncertainty in future climate scenarios. Monthly rainfall data for the 2010-2050 time period is statistically downscaled to daily values using a Markov chain algorithm, with results used only from GCMs that yield rainfall patterns that are statistically consistent with historical rainfall patterns. The process is demonstrated through application to two climatic regions of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) in the western Pacific, wherein the majority of the population relies on rainwater harvesting for potable water supply. Through the use of design curves, communities can provide household RWCS that achieve a certain degree of storage reliability. The method described herein can be applied generally to any geographic region. It can be used to first, assess the future performance of existing household systems; and second, to design or modify systems

  13. Climatic changes and uplift patterns - past, present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjoerck, S.; Svensson, N.O.

    1992-11-01

    Our knowledge about the Pleistocene (= last 2.5 million years) climatic changes and their global environmental effects on the Earth system, e.g. the glacial-interglacial cycles, the sea level changes, and the significant crustal movements in glaciated regions, has increased greatly during the last decades. This report outlines the historical background and the present state-of-the-arts on these matters. Because the driving mechanisms and feed-back effects behind these changes have been more and more discussed in earth-science literature, analysed, and probably also better and better understood, it has become possible to present theoretical models for future climates (not including mans influence on the earth system). The report presents and discusses one such climate model (short of predicting mans future behaviour and its consequent effect on climate) and its likely implications on future climatic and glacial conditions, and bedrock movements, with focus on the Stockholm region. Possibilities for quaternary geologists to establish and map post glacial fault zones, related to irregular bedrock movements, are also briefly outlined in the report. (222 refs.)

  14. US climate policy: evolution and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agrawala, S.; Andresen, S.

    2001-03-01

    Climate change is a problem which US science has significantly helped to bring to the world's attention. It now requires initiatives in US domestic policy for even the first steps towards any realistic global resolution of this problem. This paper addresses three questions: (1) How has US climate policy evolved since climate change became an international political concern in the late 1980s?; (2) what is the relative significance of various factors, both domestic and international, in shaping this evolution?; and (3) what are some likely future scenarios for the climate regime and the role of the US under the new Bush (Jr.) administration? This analysis suggests that the US has generally played a cautious, even blocking role on the international arena, although the period between 1992 and 1997 witnessed a rather uneven march towards progressivism, culminating in the US agreeing to a 7 per cent cut in its greenhouse emissions by 2008-2012 under the Kyoto Protocol. US policy during the Bush (Sr.) and Clinton administrations was primarily shaped by powerful ideologues, while a second critical determinant was the constitutional separation of powers between the executive and legislature. Scientific assessments and international negotiations meanwhile have given climate change unusual stamina on the domestic agenda, while the preferred set of policy responses has been constrained by a national culture that gives primacy to the market over the state. Looking into the future, the recent one-two punch delivered by President George W. Bush in reversing his pledge to regulate carbon dioxide followed by a rejection of US commitments under the Kyoto Protocol renders any expectation of measures to reduce domestic emissions unrealistic, and is likely to cripple the treaty in its present form. The possibility of an alternative to the Kyoto Protocol also appears very remote at this time. However, while official action is unlikely, it is possible that the growth of US

  15. The future of energy and climate

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2009-01-01

    The talk will review some of the basic facts about the history and present status of the use of energy and its climatic consequences. It is clear that the world will have to change its way of energy production, the sooner the better. Because of the difficulty of storing electric energy, by far the best energy source for the future is thermal solar from the deserts, with overnight thermal storage. I will give some description of the present status of the technologies involved and end up with a pilot project for Europe and North Africa.

  16. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

    2015-01-01

    The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

  17. Biometric Challenges for Future Deployments: A Study of the Impact of Geography, Climate, Culture, and Social Conditions on the Effective Collection of Biometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-01

    48] Vocal Cord Disorders. The University of Chicago Medical Center. [On-line]. Available: http://www.uchospitals.edu/ online -library/content...www.elsevierscitech.com/nl/btt/home.asp, respectively, as of July 14, 2010. Biometric Challenges for Future Deployments NPS-CS-11-005 36 retailers have surveyed...analysis within five European countries (Germany, Great Britain, Spain, Denmark and Greece) and five non-European countries ( Malaysia , USA, Taiwan, South

  18. Climatic growing conditions of Jatropha curcas L.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maes, W.H.; Achten, W.M.J.; Muys, B. [Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, Celestijnenlaan 200 E Box 2411, BE-3001 Leuven (Belgium); Trabucco, A. [Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, Celestijnenlaan 200 E Box 2411, BE-3001 Leuven (Belgium); International Water Management Institute (IWMI), P.O. Box 2075, Colombo (Sri Lanka)

    2009-10-15

    The massive investment in new jatropha plantations worldwide is not sufficiently based on a profound scientific knowledge of its ecology. In this article, we define the climatic conditions in its area of natural distribution by combining the locations of herbarium specimens with corresponding climatic information, and compare these conditions with those in 83 jatropha plantations worldwide. Most specimens (87%) were found in tropical savannah and monsoon climates (A{sub m}, A{sub w}) and in temperate climates without dry season and with hot summer (C{sub fa}), while very few were found in semi-arid (B{sub S}) and none in arid climates (B{sub W}). Ninety-five percent of the specimens grew in areas with a mean annual rainfall above 944 mm year{sup -1} and an average minimum temperature of the coldest month (T{sub min}) above 10.5 C. The mean annual temperature range was 19.3-27.2 C. The climatic conditions at the plantations were different from those of the natural distribution specimens for all studied climatic variables, except average maximum temperature in the warmest month. Roughly 40% of the plantations were situated in regions with a drier climate than in 95% of the area of the herbarium specimens, and 28% of the plantations were situated in areas with T{sub min} below 10.5 C. The observed precipitation preferences indicate that jatropha is not common in regions with arid and semi-arid climates. Plantations in arid and semi-arid areas hold the risk of low productivity or irrigation requirement. Plantations in regions with frost risk hold the risk of damage due to frost. (author)

  19. Climate and society: passed climates, man era, future climate: essential reference marks; Climat et societe: Climats passes, passage de l'homme, climat futur: reperes essentiels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melieres, M.A.; Marechal, Ch.

    2010-07-01

    This teaching book takes stock of the climate change question which has moved beyond the simple scientific framework. Man will play a key role in the changes to come and the choices he is going to make will have a major impact on our environment and on our societies. The aim of this book is to draw out the essential marks from the multiple disciplines involved in the study of climate change in order to get a global overview of the question. Starting from simple mechanisms showing up the driving components of the climate equilibrium (like the greenhouse effect), the authors analyse the climates of the past, and describe the different causes of the actual climate change and its possible evolution in the future. The global nature of the climate warming in progress is demonstrated and some of its actual impacts on the environment are shown up. The importance of the anthropic influence in this change is underlined as well as the stakes of the mastery of our greenhouse gas emissions. (J.S.)

  20. Establishment of Aedes aegypti (L.) in mountainous regions in Mexico: Increasing number of population at risk of mosquito-borne disease and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Equihua, Miguel; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; Benítez, Griselda; Estrada-Contreras, Israel; Sandoval-Ruiz, César A; Mendoza-Palmero, Fredy S

    2017-02-01

    The study was conducted in the central region of Veracruz Mexico, in the metropolitan area of Xalapa. It is a mountainous area where Aedes aegypti (L.) is not currently endemic. An entomological survey was done along an elevation gradient using the Ae. aegypti occurrences at different life cycle stages. Seven sites were sampled and a total of 24 mosquito species were recorded: 9 species were found in urban areas, 18 in non-urban areas with remnant vegetation, and 3 occurred in both environments. Ae. aegypti was found only in the urban areas, usually below 1200m a.s.l., but in this study was recorded for the first time at 1420m a.s.l. These occurrences, together with additional distribution data in the state of Veracruz were used to developed species distribution models using Maxlike software in R to identify the current projected suitable areas for the establishment of this vector and the human populations that might be affected by dengue transmission at higher elevations. Its emergence in previously unsuitable places appears to be driven by both habitat destruction and biodiversity loss associated with biotic homogenization. A border study using data from the edges of the vector's distribution might allow sensitive monitoring to detect any changes in this mosquito's distribution pattern, and any changes in the anthropic drivers or climate that could increase transmission risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.; Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Whittier, Joanna B.

    2018-01-01

    Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.

  2. Prospects for future climate: A special US/USSR report on climate and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacCracken, M.C.; Budyko, M.I.; Hecht, A.D.; Izrael, Y.A.

    1990-01-01

    Starting with the US-USSR Agreement on Protection of the Environment signed in 1972, the two nations have cooperated in joint research on atmospheric and environmental problems. The result of these efforts has been an innovative approach to projecting future climate change based on what has been learned about past warm periods and what can be learned from models. The chapters in this document explore the following: past changes in climate, both paleoclimatology and changes in the recent past; changes in atmospheric composition; estimates of greenhouse-induced change including the use of both empirical methods and climate models; impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in the two countries; and prospects for future climate changes

  3. Climate conditions in bedded confinement buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Confinement buildings are utilized for finishing cattle to allow more efficient collection of animal waste and to buffer animals against adverse climatic conditions. Environmental data were obtained from a 29 m wide x 318 m long bedded confinement building with the long axis oriented east to west. T...

  4. Climate and forests - perspectives for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabian, P.

    1991-01-01

    The discussion of man's impact upon the forest-climate system requires a more complex view of climate. Beside climate elements in the classical sense (meteorological climate), various chemical substances (chemical climate) play an important role in the system. The meteorological and the chemical climate are closely interrelated as well as linked to the forest ecosystem. Man interferes with these relationships by emitting pollutants and by destroying forests. Both leads to alterations of the chemical climate and thus indirectly to changes of the meteorological climate. Climate changes in turn have an impact on forests. Examples of such regional and global effects, i.e. photochemical smog, the destruction of tropical forests and the growth of the global greenhouse effect are discussed. (orig.) [de

  5. Future Climate Change Impact Assessment of River Flows at Two Watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2016-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the river flows under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate model and a physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution GCMs' future projections covering a wide range of emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. Hydrologic simulations of the two selected watersheds were carried out at hillslope-scale and at hourly increments.

  6. Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

  7. Vegetation-climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Minchao; Schurgers, Guy; Rummukainen, Markku; Smith, Benjamin; Samuelsson, Patrick; Jansson, Christer; Siltberg, Joe; May, Wilhelm

    2016-07-01

    Africa has been undergoing significant changes in climate and vegetation in recent decades, and continued changes may be expected over this century. Vegetation cover and composition impose important influences on the regional climate in Africa. Climate-driven changes in vegetation structure and the distribution of forests versus savannah and grassland may feed back to climate via shifts in the surface energy balance, hydrological cycle and resultant effects on surface pressure and larger-scale atmospheric circulation. We used a regional Earth system model incorporating interactive vegetation-atmosphere coupling to investigate the potential role of vegetation-mediated biophysical feedbacks on climate dynamics in Africa in an RCP8.5-based future climate scenario. The model was applied at high resolution (0.44 × 0.44°) for the CORDEX-Africa domain with boundary conditions from the CanESM2 general circulation model. We found that increased tree cover and leaf-area index (LAI) associated with a CO2 and climate-driven increase in net primary productivity, particularly over subtropical savannah areas, not only imposed important local effect on the regional climate by altering surface energy fluxes but also resulted in remote effects over central Africa by modulating the land-ocean temperature contrast, Atlantic Walker circulation and moisture inflow feeding the central African tropical rainforest region with precipitation. The vegetation-mediated feedbacks were in general negative with respect to temperature, dampening the warming trend simulated in the absence of feedbacks, and positive with respect to precipitation, enhancing rainfall reduction over the rainforest areas. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for vegetation-atmosphere interactions in climate projections for tropical and subtropical Africa.

  8. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675

  9. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

    2008-11-07

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae.

  10. The computational future for climate change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Washington, Warren M

    2005-01-01

    The development of climate models has a long history starting with the building of atmospheric models and later ocean models. The early researchers were very aware of the goal of building climate models which could integrate our knowledge of complex physical interactions between atmospheric, land-vegetation, hydrology, ocean, cryospheric processes, and sea ice. The transition from climate models to earth system models is already underway with coupling of active biochemical cycles. Progress is limited by present computer capability which is needed for increasingly more complex and higher resolution climate models versions. It would be a mistake to make models too complex or too high resolution. Arriving at a 'feasible' and useful model is the challenge for the climate model community. Some of the climate change history, scientific successes, and difficulties encountered with supercomputers will be presented

  11. Climate of the future: the testimony of the past

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jouzel, J.; Lorius, C.; Raynaud, D.

    1994-01-01

    Human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Such increase may induce a significant warming over the next decades. Beyond complex predictive climate models, the archives of past climate contain information relevant to this future of our climate. It concerns, in particular, the link between climate and greenhouse gases in the past and the natural variability of the Earth's climate. Both are recorded in polar ice which thus provides records essential for better understanding of the behaviour of the climate system. This is examined from results recently obtained along deep ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica. (authors). 21 refs., 5 figs

  12. Considerations for Future Climate Data Stewardship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halem, M.; Nguyen, P. T.; Chapman, D. R.

    2009-12-01

    In this talk, we will describe the lessons learned based on processing and generating a decade of gridded AIRS and MODIS IR sounding data. We describe the challenges faced in accessing and sharing very large data sets, maintaining data provenance under evolving technologies, obtaining access to legacy calibration data and the permanent preservation of Earth science data records for on demand services. These lessons suggest a new approach to data stewardship will be required for the next decade of hyper spectral instruments combined with cloud resolving models. It will not be sufficient for stewards of future data centers to just provide the public with access to archived data but our experience indicates that data needs to reside close to computers with ultra large disc farms and tens of thousands of processors to deliver complex services on demand over very high speed networks much like the offerings of search engines today. Over the first decade of the 21st century, petabyte data records were acquired from the AIRS instrument on Aqua and the MODIS instrument on Aqua and Terra. NOAA data centers also maintain petabytes of operational IR sounders collected over the past four decades. The UMBC Multicore Computational Center (MC2) developed a Service Oriented Atmospheric Radiance gridding system (SOAR) to allow users to select IR sounding instruments from multiple archives and choose space-time- spectral periods of Level 1B data to download, grid, visualize and analyze on demand. Providing this service requires high data rate bandwidth access to the on line disks at Goddard. After 10 years, cost effective disk storage technology finally caught up with the MODIS data volume making it possible for Level 1B MODIS data to be available on line. However, 10Ge fiber optic networks to access large volumes of data are still not available from CSFC to serve the broader community. Data transfer rates are well below 10MB/s limiting their usefulness for climate studies. During

  13. Wind energy under cold climate conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maribo Pedersen, B.

    1999-03-01

    There is an increasing interest in wind energy production under different climatic conditions, among them cold climate and icing conditions. More and more wind turbines are being installed in cold climates and even adapted technology has been developed for that environment. Various national activities are going on in at least Finland, Canada, Italy, Sweden, etc. and international collaboration has been carried out within the European Union's Non-nuclear energy programme. Wind turbine operation is affected by both the cold temperatures and the formation of ice on the blades and the supporting structure. Cold temperatures can be handled by material selections known in other technical fields but to prevent icing, new techniques have to be - and have been - developed. Icing affects the reliability of anemometers, which concerns both turbine control and resource estimation, and changes the aerodynamics of the blades, which eventually stops the turbine. In addition, occasional icing events can locally affect public safety. The development of applied technology has entered some different paths and different solutions are tried out. As the applications are entering a commercial phase, these is a request to gather the experiences and monitor the reliability in a form that can be utilised by developers, manufactureres, consultants and other tenderers. The Topical Experts Meeting will focus on site classification, operational experiences, modelling and mesurements of ice induced loads and safety aspects. (EHS)

  14. Climate services: Lessons learned and future prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brasseur, Guy P.; Gallardo, Laura

    2016-03-01

    This perspective paper reviews progress made in the last decades to enhance the communication and use of climate information relevant to the political and economic decision process. It focuses, specifically, on the creation and development of climate services, and highlights a number of difficulties that have limited the success of these services. Among them are the insufficient awareness by societal actors of their vulnerability to climate change, the lack of relevant products and services offered by the scientific community, the inappropriate format in which the information is provided, and the inadequate business model adopted by climate services. The authors suggest that, to be effective, centers should host within the same center a diversity of staff including experts in climate science, specialists in impact, adaptation, and vulnerability, representatives of the corporate world, agents of the public service as well as social managers and communication specialists. The role and importance of environmental engineering is emphasized.

  15. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

    2010-01-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting

  16. Potential Economic Benefits of Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Williams, Jimmy R.

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to

  17. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs

  18. Climate and society: passed climates, man era, future climate: essential reference marks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melieres, M.A.; Marechal, Ch.

    2010-01-01

    This teaching book takes stock of the climate change question which has moved beyond the simple scientific framework. Man will play a key role in the changes to come and the choices he is going to make will have a major impact on our environment and on our societies. The aim of this book is to draw out the essential marks from the multiple disciplines involved in the study of climate change in order to get a global overview of the question. Starting from simple mechanisms showing up the driving components of the climate equilibrium (like the greenhouse effect), the authors analyse the climates of the past, and describe the different causes of the actual climate change and its possible evolution in the future. The global nature of the climate warming in progress is demonstrated and some of its actual impacts on the environment are shown up. The importance of the anthropic influence in this change is underlined as well as the stakes of the mastery of our greenhouse gas emissions. (J.S.)

  19. Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Xiaoliang Tong

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world’s population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China’s current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country’s capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future.

  20. Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Cameron, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Liu, Qiyong; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

    2015-09-07

    China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world's population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China's current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country's capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future.

  1. Costa Rica Rainfall in Future Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo Rodriguez, R. A., Sr.; Amador, J. A.; Duran-Quesada, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Studies of intraseasonal and annual cycles of meteorological variables, using projections of climate change, are nowadays extremely important to improve regional socio-economic planning for countries. This is particularly true in Costa Rica, as Central America has been identified as a climate change hot spot. Today many of the economic activities in the region, especially those related to agriculture, tourism and hydroelectric power generation are linked to the seasonal cycle of precipitation. Changes in rainfall (mm/day) and in the diurnal temperature range (°C) for the periods 1950-2005 and 2006-2100 were investigated using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) constructed using the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5) data. Differences between the multi-model ensembles of the two prospective scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the retrospective baseline scenario were computed. This study highlights Costa Rica as an inflexion point of the climate change in the region and also suggests future drying conditions.

  2. Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suchithra Naish

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

  3. Future changes in hydro-climatic extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijngaard, René R; Lutz, Arthur F; Nepal, Santosh; Khanal, Sonu; Pradhananga, Saurav; Shrestha, Arun B; Immerzeel, Walter W

    2017-01-01

    Future hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may pose serious threats for the livelihoods in the upstream domains of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra. For this reason, the impacts of climate change on future hydrological extremes is investigated in these river basins. We use a fully-distributed cryospheric-hydrological model to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes and force the model with an ensemble of 8 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model is calibrated on observed daily discharge and geodetic mass balances. The climate forcing and the outputs of the hydrological model are used to evaluate future changes in climatic extremes, and hydrological extremes by focusing on high and low flows. The outcomes show an increase in the magnitude of climatic means and extremes towards the end of the 21st century where climatic extremes tend to increase stronger than climatic means. Future mean discharge and high flow conditions will very likely increase. These increases might mainly be the result of increasing precipitation extremes. To some extent temperature extremes might also contribute to increasing discharge extremes, although this is highly dependent on magnitude of change in temperature extremes. Low flow conditions may occur less frequently, although the uncertainties in low flow projections can be high. The results of this study may contribute to improved understanding on the implications of climate change for the occurrence of future hydrological extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region.

  4. Future changes in hydro-climatic extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René R Wijngaard

    Full Text Available Future hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may pose serious threats for the livelihoods in the upstream domains of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra. For this reason, the impacts of climate change on future hydrological extremes is investigated in these river basins. We use a fully-distributed cryospheric-hydrological model to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes and force the model with an ensemble of 8 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model is calibrated on observed daily discharge and geodetic mass balances. The climate forcing and the outputs of the hydrological model are used to evaluate future changes in climatic extremes, and hydrological extremes by focusing on high and low flows. The outcomes show an increase in the magnitude of climatic means and extremes towards the end of the 21st century where climatic extremes tend to increase stronger than climatic means. Future mean discharge and high flow conditions will very likely increase. These increases might mainly be the result of increasing precipitation extremes. To some extent temperature extremes might also contribute to increasing discharge extremes, although this is highly dependent on magnitude of change in temperature extremes. Low flow conditions may occur less frequently, although the uncertainties in low flow projections can be high. The results of this study may contribute to improved understanding on the implications of climate change for the occurrence of future hydrological extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region.

  5. Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

    2013-01-01

    Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

  6. The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Z. Li

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, modified index of agreement (d1 and water balance error (WBE were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to

  7. Scenarios for the future - possible futures for climate and technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laramee de Tannenberg, Valery; Guillaume, Bertrand

    2012-01-01

    This bibliographical note presents a book in which the authors study different scenarios to challenge climate change. After having recalled reasons for this change, already made observations, and the emergence of a consensus on climate change (IPCC creation), they propose an assessment of greenhouse gas emissions and of the evolution of anthropogenic emissions, and then study the different scenarios proposed by the IEA. They discuss the various geo-engineering solutions (diffraction of solar radiation by microscopic particles dispersed in space, seawater ferrugination, city discolouring, extraction of CO 2 from the atmosphere) and outline the associated risks and hazards. Because of these associated risks, hazards and costs, they prefer solutions like the development of renewable energies, positive dwelling, evolution of transports, and carbon capture and storage

  8. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  9. Zero discounting can compensate future generations for climate damage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davidson, M.D.

    2014-01-01

    In cost-benefit analysis of climate policy there are two main approaches to discounting, each with implications conflicting with our moral intuitions. Thus, discounted utilitarianism implies that we hardly need to protect future generations against climate change, while classical utilitarianism

  10. Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tölle, Merja H.; Schefczyk, Lukas; Gutjahr, Oliver

    2017-11-01

    A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5- and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 ∘C. Modeled future precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

  11. The Future of Air Conditioning for Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goetzler, William [Navigant Consulting, Burlington, MA (United States); Guernsey, Matt [Navigant Consulting, Burlington, MA (United States); Young, Jim [Navigant Consulting, Burlington, MA (United States); Fujrman, Jay [Navigant Consulting, Burlington, MA (United States); Abdelaziz, Amar [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-07-01

    BTO works with researchers and industry to develop and deploy technologies that can substantially reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in residential and commercial buildings. Air conditioning systems in buildings contribute to GHG emissions both directly through refrigerant emissions, as well as indirectly through fossil fuel combustion for power generation. BTO promotes pre-competitive research and development on next-generation HVAC technologies that support the phase down of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production and consumption, as well as cost-effective energy efficiency improvements. DOE provides, with this report, a fact-based vision for the future of A/C use around the world. DOE intends for this vision to reflect a broad and balanced aggregation of perspectives. DOE brings together this content in an effort to support dialogue within the international community and help keep key facts and objectives at the forefront among the many important discussions.

  12. Future directions in climate modeling: A climate impacts perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mearns, L.O.

    1990-01-01

    One of the most serious impediments to further progress on the determination of specific impacts of climate change on relevant earth systems is the lack of precise and accurate scenarios of regional change. Spatial resolution of models is generally coarse (5-10 degree, corresponding to 550-1,100 km), and the modeling of physical processes is quite crude. Three main areas in which improvements in the modeling of physical processes are being made are modeling of surface processes, modeling of oceans and coupling of oceans and atmospheric models, and modeling of clouds. Improvements are required in the modeling of surface hydrology and vegetative effects, which have significant impact on the albedo scheme used. Oceans are important in climate modeling for the following reasons: delay of warming due to oceanic heat absorption; effect of mean meridional circulation; control of regional patterns of sea surface temperatures and sea ice by wind driven currents; absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the oceans; and determination of interannual climatic variability via variability in sea surface temperature. The effects of clouds on radiation balance is highly significant. Clouds both reflect shortwave radiation and trap longwave radiation. Most cloud properties are sub-grid scale and thus difficult to include explicitly in models. 25 refs., 1 tab

  13. Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

    OpenAIRE

    Zanin, Marina; Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified l...

  14. Climate changes, biofuels and the sustainable future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zidansek, Aleksander; Blinc, Robert; Jeglic, Anton; Kabashi, Skender; Bekteshi, Sadik; Slaus, Ivo

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most dangerous problems of the contemporary world. We can either adapt to the corresponding changes or try to reduce their impact by significantly reducing fossil fuel burning. A hydrogen-based economy using energy from biomass, solar, wind and other renewable sources and/or nuclear energy seems to be a viable alternative. Here we analyse the possibilities of the biofuels to replace fossil fuels and their potential to contribute to hydrogen economy. (author)

  15. Climate changes, biofuels and the sustainable future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zidansek, Aleksander; Blinc, Robert [Jozef Stefan International Postgraduate School, Jamova 39, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Jozef Stefan Institute, Jamova 39, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Jeglic, Anton [Faculty of Electrical Engineering, University of Ljubljana (Slovenia); Kabashi, Skender; Bekteshi, Sadik [Faculty of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, University of Prishtina, Kosovo (RS); Slaus, Ivo [Ruder Boskovic Institute, Bijenicka 54, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2009-08-15

    Climate change is one of the most dangerous problems of the contemporary world. We can either adapt to the corresponding changes or try to reduce their impact by significantly reducing fossil fuel burning. A hydrogen-based economy using energy from biomass, solar, wind and other renewable sources and/or nuclear energy seems to be a viable alternative. Here we analyse the possibilities of the biofuels to replace fossil fuels and their potential to contribute to hydrogen economy. (author)

  16. Climate change and its potential impact on mechanical, hydraulic and chemical conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naslund, J.O.

    2009-01-01

    The strategy for managing climate related conditions in SKB ' s safety assessments are based on the notion that it is not possible to predict climate in a 100 000-year time perspective. Instead, the approach in the SR-Can safety assessment was to identify and analyse both moderate climate evolutions as well as extremes within which the climate in Scandinavia may vary. To this end, knowledge on general climate variations in Scandinavia was used to identify characteristic climate domains which in turn were used to build a number of selected climate scenarios. The relevant climate domains for the Forsmark and Laxemar sites in the 100 000-year time perspective are; 1) a temperate climate domain, 2) a peri-glacial climate domain, and 3) a glacial climate domain. Also submerged/non-submerged conditions at the sites are of importance. In the SR-Can safety assessment several climate scenarios were investigated, including a reference evolution based on a repetition of reconstructed conditions for last glacial cycle (the Weichselian glaciation and the Holocene interglacial). For this reconstruction, extensive numerical simulations of ice sheets, isostatic changes, and permafrost were conducted. The resulting scenario showed site-specific timing and duration of the three climate domains and submerged periods for the full glacial cycle. This scenario is not a prediction of a future climate evolution. Instead it is one example of a future evolution that in a realistic and consistent way covers all relevant climate related changes that can be expected in a 100 000-year time perspective. Subsequently, this scenario formed the basis for the construction of additional climate scenarios that were used to analyse the effects of more extreme climate evolutions than during the last glacial cycle. Examples of complementary scenarios are a warmer and wetter climate scenario caused by an increased greenhouse effect, and colder scenarios with deeper permafrost or thicker ice sheets than in

  17. Challenges to a climate stabilizing energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, C.; Dilmaghani, M.; Baksi, S.

    2007-01-01

    The paper surveys the major challenges to stabilizing the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Climate change, and policies to deal with it, is viewed as an energy problem. The energy problem stems from the fact that no combination of carbon-free energies is currently capable of displacing fossil fuels as the main sources of the world's base load energy requirements. The paper provides rough estimates of the amount of carbon-free energy required to stabilize climate, the potential contribution of 'conventional' carbon-free energies, the contribution of renewable energies, and the size of an 'advanced energy technology gap'. The findings indicate that stabilizing CO 2 concentration will require a long-term commitment to research, develop, and eventually deploy new energy sources and technologies including hydrogen. The paper suggests that the role of technology is what makes stabilizing CO 2 concentration economically feasible. In this respect energy technology and economics are complementary, with advances in the former requiring something more than a reliance on market-based instruments, such as carbon taxes and emission permits. The analysis has implications for the credibility of commitments to target climate change-related factors such as CO 2 emissions.(author)

  18. Challenges to a climate stabilizing energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, Chris; Baksi, Soham; Dilmaghani, Maryam

    2007-01-01

    The paper surveys the major challenges to stabilizing the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Climate change, and policies to deal with it, is viewed as an energy problem. The energy problem stems from the fact that no combination of carbon-free energies is currently capable of displacing fossil fuels as the main sources of the world's base load energy requirements. The paper provides rough estimates of the amount of carbon-free energy required to stabilize climate, the potential contribution of 'conventional' carbon-free energies, the contribution of renewable energies, and the size of an 'advanced energy technology gap'. The findings indicate that stabilizing CO 2 concentration will require a long-term commitment to research, develop, and eventually deploy new energy sources and technologies including hydrogen. The paper suggests that the role of technology is what makes stabilizing CO 2 concentration economically feasible. In this respect energy technology and economics are complementary, with advances in the former requiring something more than a reliance on market-based instruments, such as carbon taxes and emission permits. The analysis has implications for the credibility of commitments to target climate change-related factors such as CO 2 emissions

  19. Automatically Maintain Climatic Conditions inside Agricultural Greenhouses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Jasim Ramadhan

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In this work, a novel system is designed to remote monitor / automatic control of the temperature, humidity and soil moisture of the agricultural greenhouses. In the proposed system, the author used the mentioned sensors for monitoring the climatic conditions of the agricultural greenhouses; and the system makes a controlling process to fix the required parameters for plant growth by running / stopping the fan, air exchanger and irrigation devices when any changes happened in these parameters. The presented system is based on XBee protocol in the implemented wireless sensor star topology network (WSN to monitor the agricultural greenhouses in real time, and used the GSM and Internet technologies to monitor the agricultural greenhouses from anywhere.

  20. Pastoral suitability driven by future climate change along the Apennines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilla Dibari

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This work aims at evaluating the impacts of climate change on pastoral resources located along the Apennines chain. To this end, random forest machine learning model was first calibrated for the present period and then applied to future conditions, as projected by HadCM3 general circulation model, in order to simulate possible spatial variation/shift of pastoral areas in two time slices (centred on 2050 and 2080 under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Pre-existent spatial database, namely Corine land cover map and WorldClim, were integrated and harmonised in a GIS environment in order to extract climate variables (mean seasonal precipitation, mean maximum temperature of the warmest month and minimum temperature of the coldest month and response variables (presence/absence of pastures to be used as model predictors. Random forest model resulted robust and coherent to simulate pastureland suitability under current climatology (classification accuracy error=19%. Accordingly, results indicated that increases in temperatures coupled with decreases in precipitation, as simulated by HadCM3 in the future, would have impacts of great concern on potential pasture distribution. In the specific, an overall decline of pasturelands suitability is predicted by the middle of the century in both A2 (–46% and B2 (–41% along the entire chain. However, despite alarming reductions in pastures suitability along the northern (–69% and –71% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively and central Apennines (–90% under both scenarios by the end of the century, expansions are predicted along the southern areas of the chain (+96% and +105% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. This may be probably due to expansions in pastures dominated by xeric and thermophiles species, which will likely benefit from warmer and drier future conditions predicted in the southern zone of the chain by the HadCM3. Hence, the expected climate, coupled with an increasing abandonment of the

  1. Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes national parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Margaret; Douglas, Christine; Cole, K.L.; Winkler, Marge; Flaknes, Robyn

    2000-01-01

    We reconstruct Holocene climate history (last 10,000 years) for each of the U.S. National Park Service units in the western Great Lakes region in order to evaluate their sensitivity to global warming. Annual precipitation, annual temperature, and July and January temperatures were reconstructed by comparing fossil pollen in lake sediment with pollen in surface samples, assuming that ancient climates were similar to modern climate near analogous surface samples. In the early Holocene, most of the parks experienced colder winters, warmer summers, and lower precipitation than today. An exception is Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota where, by 8000 years ago, January temperatures were higher than today. The combination of high mean annual temperature and lower precipitation at Voyageurs resulted in a dry period between 8000 and 5000 years ago, similar to the Prairie Period in regions to the south and west. A mid-Holocene warm-dry period also occurred at other northern and central parks but was much less strongly developed. In southern parks there was no clear evidence of a mid-Holocene warm-dry period. These differences suggest that global model predictions of a warm, dry climate in the northern Great Plains under doubled atmospheric CO2 may be more applicable to Voyageurs than to the other parks. The contrast in reconstructed temperatures at Voyageurs and Isle Royale indicates that the ameliorating effect of the Great Lakes on temperatures has been in effect throughout the Holocene and presumably will continue in the future, thus reducing the potential for species loss caused by future temperature extremes. Increased numbers of mesic trees at all of the parks in the late Holocene reflect increasing annual precipitation. This trend toward more mesic conditions began 6000 years ago in the south and 4000 years ago in the north and increased sharply in recent millennia at parks located today in lake-effect snow belts. This suggests that lake-effect snowfall is

  2. Projecting climate change, drought conditions and crop productivity in Turkey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sen, B.; Topcu, S.; Türkes, M.; Warner, J.F.

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on the evaluation of regional climate model simulation for Turkey for the 21st century. A regional climate model, ICTP-RegCM3, with 20 km horizontal resolution, is used to downscale the reference and future climate scenario (IPCC-A2) simulations. Characteristics of droughts as

  3. Designing the Climate Observing System of the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Abbott, Mark; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Atlas, Robert; Brasseur, Guy; Bruhwiler, Lori; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Butler, James H.; Clack, Christopher T. M.; Cooke, Roger; Cucurull, Lidia; Davis, Sean M.; English, Jason M.; Fahey, David W.; Fine, Steven S.; Lazo, Jeffrey K.; Liang, Shunlin; Loeb, Norman G.; Rignot, Eric; Soden, Brian; Stanitski, Diane; Stephens, Graeme; Tapley, Byron D.; Thompson, Anne M.; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Wuebbles, Donald

    2018-01-01

    Climate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and freshwater availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in specific climate questions have resulted in tremendous improvements in issues important to human health, security, and infrastructure. However, the current climate observing system was not planned in a comprehensive, focused manner required to adequately address the full range of climate needs. A potential approach to planning the observing system of the future is presented in this article. First, this article proposes that priority be given to the most critical needs as identified within the World Climate Research Program as Grand Challenges. These currently include seven important topics: melting ice and global consequences; clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity; carbon feedbacks in the climate system; understanding and predicting weather and climate extremes; water for the food baskets of the world; regional sea-level change and coastal impacts; and near-term climate prediction. For each Grand Challenge, observations are needed for long-term monitoring, process studies and forecasting capabilities. Second, objective evaluations of proposed observing systems, including satellites, ground-based and in situ observations as well as potentially new, unidentified observational approaches, can quantify the ability to address these climate priorities. And third, investments in effective climate observations will be economically important as they will offer a magnified return on investment that justifies a far greater development of observations to serve society's needs.

  4. Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Niemitz, Franziska; Reineking, Björn; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

    2011-07-01

    During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus ( Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around the globe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here, we model the present distribution and the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve the most realistic current prediction and future projection, we compare the performance of four different modelling approaches, differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs. statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range). First, models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statistically selected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selected with expert knowledge from the literature. Native models show high model performance (AUC: 0.91-0.94) for the native range, but do not predict the European distribution well (AUC: 0.70-0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species, however, were able to identify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established, including Europe (AUC: 0.89-0.91). In a second step, the modelled bioclimatic envelope of the global range was projected to future climatic conditions in Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. For both global-driven models, the results indicate that climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictus will increase in western and central Europe already in 2011-2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand, a decline in climatically suitable areas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge based model. Our projections appear unaffected by non-analogue climate, as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis. The generated risk maps

  5. Securing African forests for future drier climates: applying ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We argue that ecophysiological data will be crucial to future-proof tree improvement strategies in African commodity production landscapes, especially given future drier climates. Keywords: developing nations, drought tolerance, forest resilience, forest sustainability, plantation forestry, tree hydric strategy, wood anatomical ...

  6. Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

    2018-04-01

    Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations

  7. Understanding the Association Between School Climate and Future Orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindstrom Johnson, Sarah; Pas, Elise; Bradshaw, Catherine P

    2016-08-01

    Promoting students' future orientation is inherently a goal of the educational system. Recently, it has received more explicit attention given the increased focus on career readiness. This study aimed to examine the association between school climate and adolescents' report of future orientation using data from youth (N = 27,698; 49.4 % female) across 58 high schools. Three-level hierarchical linear models indicated that perceptions of available emotional and service supports, rules and consequences, and parent engagement were positively related to adolescents' future orientation. Additionally, the school-level average future orientation was significantly related to individuals' future orientation, indicating a potential influence of contextual effects on this construct. Taken together, these findings suggest that interventions targeting school climate may hold promise for promoting future orientation.

  8. Response of switchgrass yield to future climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tulbure, Mirela G; Wimberly, Michael C; Owens, Vance N

    2012-01-01

    A climate envelope approach was used to model the response of switchgrass, a model bioenergy species in the United States, to future climate change. The model was built using general additive models (GAMs), and switchgrass yields collected at 45 field trial locations as the response variable. The model incorporated variables previously shown to be the main determinants of switchgrass yield, and utilized current and predicted 1 km climate data from WorldClim. The models were run with current WorldClim data and compared with results of predicted yield obtained using two climate change scenarios across three global change models for three time steps. Results did not predict an increase in maximum switchgrass yield but showed an overall shift in areas of high switchgrass productivity for both cytotypes. For upland cytotypes, the shift in high yields was concentrated in northern and north-eastern areas where there were increases in average growing season temperature, whereas for lowland cultivars the areas where yields were projected to increase were associated with increases in average early growing season precipitation. These results highlight the fact that the influences of climate change on switchgrass yield are spatially heterogeneous and vary depending on cytotype. Knowledge of spatial distribution of suitable areas for switchgrass production under climate change should be incorporated into planning of current and future biofuel production. Understanding how switchgrass yields will be affected by future changes in climate is important for achieving a sustainable biofuels economy. (letter)

  9. Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000-year time perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav (Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)); Brandefelt, Jenny (Dept. of Mechanics, Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Smith, Ben (Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)); Wohlfarth, Barbara (Dept. of Geology and Geochemistry, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-04-15

    This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform

  10. Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000-year time perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav; Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Smith, Ben; Wohlfarth, Barbara

    2009-04-01

    This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform

  11. Terrestrial Biosphere Dynamics in the Climate System: Past and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J.; Whitlock, C.; Huntley, B.

    2002-12-01

    The paleoenvironmental record makes it clear that climate change as large as is likely to occur in the next two centuries will drive change in the terrestrial biosphere that is both large and difficult to predict, or plan for. Many species, communities and ecosystems could experience rates of climate change, and "destination climates" that are unprecedented in their time on earth. The paleorecord also makes it clear that a wide range of possible climate system behavior, such as decades-long droughts, increases in large storm and flood frequency, and rapid sea level rise, all occurred repeatedly in the past, and for poorly understood reasons. These types of events, if they were to reoccur in the future, could have especially devastating impacts on biodiversity, both because their timing and spatial extent cannot be anticipated, and because the biota's natural defenses have been compromised by land-use, reductions in genetic flexibility, pollution, excess water utilization, invasive species, and other human influences. Vegetation disturbance (e.g., by disease, pests and fire) will undoubtedly be exacerbated by climate change (stress), but could also speed the rate at which terrestrial biosphere change takes place in the future. The paleoenvironmental record makes it clear that major scientific challenges include an improved ability to model regional biospheric change, both past and future. This in turn will be a prerequisite to obtaining realistic estimates of future biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks, and thus to obtaining better assessments of future climate change. These steps will help generate the improved understanding of climate variability that is needed to manage global biodiversity. However, the most troubling message from the paleoenvironmental record is that unchecked anthropogenic climate change could make the Earth's 6th major mass extinction unavoidable.

  12. Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guis, Helene; Caminade, Cyril; Calvete, Carlos; Morse, Andrew P.; Tran, Annelise; Baylis, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases. PMID:21697167

  13. Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.

    2013-07-01

    Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

  14. Crop and farm level adaptation under future climate challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, Maryia; Reidsma, Pytrik; Ittersum, van Martin K.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is expressed in both a shift of mean climatic conditions and an increase in the frequency and severity of weather extremes. The weather extremes are often projected to have a larger impact on agricultural production than the average increase in temperature or average change in

  15. Climate Reanalysis: Progress and Future Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelaro, Ron

    2018-01-01

    Reanalysis is the process whereby an unchanging data assimilation system is used to provide a consistent reprocessing of observations, typically spanning an extended segment of the historical data record. The process relies on an underlying model to combine often-disparate observations in a physically consistent manner, enabling production of gridded data sets for a broad range of applications including the study of historical weather events, preparation of climatologies, business sector development and, more recently, climate monitoring. Over the last few decades, several generations of reanalyses of the global atmosphere have been produced by various operational and research centers, focusing more or less on the period of regular conventional and satellite observations beginning in the mid to late twentieth century. There have also been successful efforts to extend atmospheric reanalyses back to the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, using mostly surface observations. Much progress has resulted from (and contributed to) advancements in numerical weather prediction, especially improved models and data assimilation techniques, increased computing capacity, the availability of new observation types and efforts to recover and improve the quality of historical ones. The recent extension of forecast systems that allow integrated modeling of meteorological, oceanic, land surface, and chemical variables provide the basic elements for coupled data assimilation. This has opened the door to the development of a new generation of coupled reanalyses of the Earth system, or integrated Earth system analyses (IESA). Evidence so far suggests that this approach can improve the analysis of currently uncoupled components of the Earth system, especially at their interface, and lead to increased predictability. However, extensive analysis coupling as envisioned for IESA, while progressing, still presents significant challenges. These include model biases that can be

  16. Climate hot spots: Generating knowledge for an uncertain future ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-10-26

    Oct 26, 2016 ... Climate change is felt globally, but particularly in developing countries. ... The project addresses the conditions for economic growth and ... Investing in Internet access boosts incomes, concludes Latin American study.

  17. Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

    2016-07-01

    Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Sustainability Challenges from Climate Change and Air Conditioning Use in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Lundgren

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change increases heat loads in urban areas causing health and productivity risks for millions of people. Inhabitants in tropical and subtropical urban areas are at especial risk due to high population density, already high temperatures, and temperature increases due to climate change. Air conditioning is growing rapidly, especially in South and South-East Asia due to income growth and the need to protect from high heat exposures. Studies have linked increased total hourly electricity use to outdoor temperatures and humidity; modeled future predictions when facing additional heat due to climate change, related air conditioning with increased street level heat and estimated future air conditioning use in major urban areas. However, global and localized studies linking climate variables with air conditioning alone are lacking. More research and detailed data is needed looking at the effects of increasing air conditioning use, electricity consumption, climate change and interactions with the urban heat island effect. Climate change mitigation, for example using renewable energy sources, particularly photovoltaic electricity generation, to power air conditioning, and other sustainable methods to reduce heat exposure are needed to make future urban areas more climate resilient.

  19. Global climate changes in the past and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenwiese, C.D.

    1993-01-01

    Is man changing the climate of the Earth, and if so, is this at a global scale? This question with all its reunifications, usually referred to under the heading ''greenhouse effect'', deservedly stands in the focus of public attention. Besides fears and warnings reaching even to disaster scenarios there have recently also been sceptical voices pointing out the imponderabilities of filtering anthropogenic effects out of the climate data. This uncertainty is not surprising to the expert, as natural changes of climate always have, and will, superimpose anthropogenic influences. Therefore, it is not enough to peer into the future with the help of intricate climate models. Diagnostic analysis of the past climate is at least just as important. (orig.) [de

  20. Future reservoir management under climate change for the Mississippi River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asnaashari, Ahmad; Gharabaghi, Bahram; McBean, Edward A.; Kunjikutty, Sobhalatha; Lehman, Paul; Wade, Winston

    2010-01-01

    This paper is part of an ongoing research project designed to evaluate the effect of climate change on reservoir operation policies in the Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority. The study used the results from a first paper, including projected daily temperature and precipitation, for future streamflow calculation. This paper presented the development, calibration and validation of a rainfall-runoff NAM model for the Mississippi River watershed. The calibrated Mike11/NAM model was fed with predicted climatic data to generate long term future streamflow in the basin. Forecast flows were run in a Mike 11/HD model to estimate the corresponding lake levels. The storages and flows at Shabomeka Lake, Mazinaw Lake and Marble Lake were simulated. The results showed that climate change is likely to have implications for reservoir operations in the Mississippi River watershed, which will include changed water level regimes due to modifications in the projected future streamflow hydrograph to meet desired lake levels.

  1. Modelling Bambara Groundnut Yield in Southern Africa: Towards a Climate-Resilient Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karunaratne, A. S.; Walker, S.; Ruane, A. C.

    2015-01-01

    Current agriculture depends on a few major species grown as monocultures that are supported by global research underpinning current productivity. However, many hundreds of alternative crops have the potential to meet real world challenges by sustaining humanity, diversifying agricultural systems for food and nutritional security, and especially responding to climate change through their resilience to certain climate conditions. Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilised African legume, is an exemplar crop for climate resilience. Predicted yield performances of Bambara groundnut by AquaCrop (a crop-water productivity model) were evaluated for baseline (1980-2009) and mid-century climates (2040-2069) under 20 downscaled Global Climate Models (CMIP5-RCP8.5), as well as for climate sensitivities (AgMIPC3MP) across 3 locations in Southern Africa (Botswana, South Africa, Namibia). Different land - races of Bambara groundnut originating from various semi-arid African locations showed diverse yield performances with diverse sensitivities to climate. S19 originating from hot-dry conditions in Namibia has greater future yield potential compared to the Swaziland landrace Uniswa Red-UN across study sites. South Africa has the lowest yield under the current climate, indicating positive future yield trends. Namibia reported the highest baseline yield at optimum current temperatures, indicating less yield potential in future climates. Bambara groundnut shows positive yield potential at temperatures of up to 31degC, with further warming pushing yields down. Thus, many regions in Southern Africa can utilize Bambara groundnut successfully in the coming decades. This modelling exercise supports decisions on genotypic suitability for present and future climates at specific locations.

  2. International conference on past, present and future climate. Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heikinheimo, P [ed.

    1996-12-31

    This publications contains the proceedings of the International Conference on Past, Present and Future Climate, held in Helsinki, Finland, on 22-25 August 1995. Conference was organized to serve at least two purposes. First, it was the fourth meeting in a series of Nordic climate conferences. Earlier Nordic meetings had been held in Copenhagen (1978), Stockholm (1983) and Tromsoe (1990). Secondly, the conference formed part of the integration activities of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU). Four central themes were selected for the conference: (1) climatic changes since the last glaciation inferred from proxy data,(2) detection of climate change from the instrumental record,(3) changes in atmospheric composition, (4) predicting future climate. The Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change was in its sixth and final year at the time of the conference. One of the aims of the meeting was to foster the communication of SlLMU`s results to the scientific community at large. On the other hand, feedback from overseas colleagues was expected to be beneficial for the final reporting of the results of the research programme. Altogether 117 scientific contributions were submitted and more than 140 scientists attended the conference

  3. International conference on past, present and future climate. Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heikinheimo, P. [ed.

    1995-12-31

    This publications contains the proceedings of the International Conference on Past, Present and Future Climate, held in Helsinki, Finland, on 22-25 August 1995. Conference was organized to serve at least two purposes. First, it was the fourth meeting in a series of Nordic climate conferences. Earlier Nordic meetings had been held in Copenhagen (1978), Stockholm (1983) and Tromsoe (1990). Secondly, the conference formed part of the integration activities of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU). Four central themes were selected for the conference: (1) climatic changes since the last glaciation inferred from proxy data,(2) detection of climate change from the instrumental record,(3) changes in atmospheric composition, (4) predicting future climate. The Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change was in its sixth and final year at the time of the conference. One of the aims of the meeting was to foster the communication of SlLMU`s results to the scientific community at large. On the other hand, feedback from overseas colleagues was expected to be beneficial for the final reporting of the results of the research programme. Altogether 117 scientific contributions were submitted and more than 140 scientists attended the conference

  4. Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

    2007-01-01

    -90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...

  5. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephanie K. Moore; Vera L. Trainer; Nathan J. Mantua; Micaela S. Parker; Edward A. Laws; Lorraine C. Backer; Lora E. Fleming

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes...

  6. Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.

    2017-12-01

    Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.

  7. Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

    2017-12-01

    Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

  8. Climate evolution: from the recent past to the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jouzel, J.; Lorius, C.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this article is twofold. We first summarize our current scientific knowledge about the potential influence of human activities on climate. This review is largely based on the conclusions of the 1995 IPCC report (International Panel on Climate Change). An increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has been observed since 1750 (CH 4 = 145 %; CO 2 = 30 %; N 2 O =15 %) and in the temperature of the Earth's surface since 1860 (between 0.3 and 0.6 deg C). This report suggests a discernable human influence on climate and predicts significant global warming for the next century (1 to 3.5 deg C) as a result of the anthropogenic increase of the greenhouse effect. We then show how studies of past climates have, over the last ten years, contributed to this problem by providing information relevant to the future of our climate. Important results concern the existence of a relationship between climate and concentrations of greenhouse gases for more than 200 000 years, the discovery of rapid climatic changes (∼ 10 deg C in a few decades in Greenland) and the reconstruction of recent climate showing that the 20. century is the warmest since 1 400 AD. (authors)

  9. Implications of Climate Mitigation for Future Agricultural Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate approximately 81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many

  10. Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A M; Schmid, Erwin

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate ∼81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure

  11. Relationship between climate conditions and nosocomial infection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    EB

    Conclusion: To decrease NIRs and improve health care quality, it is necessary to strengthen the control of ... level, etc.) and environmental factors (climatic ... those in developing countries the wards are generally ... Therefore, effects of ambient.

  12. Future Climate Forcings and Olive Yield in a Mediterranean Orchard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Viola

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The olive tree is one of the most characteristic rainfed trees in the Mediterranean region. Observed and forecasted climate modifications in this region, such as the CO2 concentration and temperature increase and the net radiation, rainfall and wind speed decrease, will likely alter vegetation water stress and modify productivity. In order to simulate how climatic change could alter soil moisture dynamic, biomass growth and fruit productivity, a water-driven crop model has been used in this study. The numerical model, previously calibrated on an olive orchard located in Sicily (Italy with a satisfactory reproduction of historical olive yield data, has been forced with future climate scenarios generated using a stochastic weather generator and a downscaling procedure of an ensemble of climate model outputs. The stochastic downscaling is carried out using simulations of some General Circulation Models adopted in the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC assessment report (4AR for future scenarios. The outcomes state that climatic forcings driving potential evapotranspiration compensate for each other, resulting in a slight increase of this water demand flux; moreover, the increase of CO2 concentration leads to a potential assimilation increase and, consequently, to an overall productivity increase in spite of the growth of water stress due to the rainfall reduction.

  13. Future Scenarios for Plant Virus Pathogens as Climate Change Progresses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, R A C

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in Europe under present and future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuck, Gill; Glendining, Margaret J.; Smith, Pete; Wattenbach, Martin; House, Jo I.

    2006-01-01

    We have derived maps of the potential distribution of 26 promising bioenergy crops in Europe, based on simple rules for suitable climatic conditions and elevation. Crops suitable for temperate and Mediterranean climates were selected from four groups: oilseeds (e.g. oilseed rape, sunflower), starch crops (e.g. potatoes), cereals (e.g. barley) and solid biofuel crops (e.g. sorghum, Miscanthus). The impact of climate change under different scenarios and GCMs on the potential future distribution of these crops was determined, based on predicted future climatic conditions. Climate scenarios based on four IPCC SRES emission scenarios, A1FI, A2, B1 and B2, implemented by four global climate models, HadCM3, CSIRO2, PCM and CGCM2, were used. The potential distribution of temperate oilseeds, cereals, starch crops and solid biofuels is predicted to increase in northern Europe by the 2080s, due to increasing temperatures, and decrease in southern Europe (e.g. Spain, Portugal, southern France, Italy, and Greece) due to increased drought. Mediterranean oil and solid biofuel crops, currently restricted to southern Europe, are predicted to extend further north due to higher summer temperatures. Effects become more pronounced with time and are greatest under the A1FI scenario and for models predicting the greatest climate forcing. Different climate models produce different regional patterns. All models predict that bioenergy crop production in Spain is especially vulnerable to climate change, with many temperate crops predicted to decline dramatically by the 2080s. The choice of bioenergy crops in southern Europe will be severely reduced in future unless measures are taken to adapt to climate change. (author)

  15. Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map’s coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions. PMID:27618445

  16. Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Zanin

    Full Text Available Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map's coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions.

  17. Projected future runoff of the Breede River under climate change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Breede River is the largest river in the Western Cape Province of South Africa, and as such, is a key resource for a variety of activities within the region. It is this significance of the river that prompted a study into the impact of climate change on future runoff in the river and hence, the potential impacts a projected change ...

  18. Climatic change. Future perspectives; Cambio climatico. Perspectivas futuras

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galan Madruga, D.; Garrido Morales, J.L.

    2012-07-01

    The present article aims to offer an overview of climate change in relation to aspects such as their relationship to greenhouse gases (GHG), effects on the environment, human being, economy, possible consequences in a future and the importance in the policies and decision taken and to mitigate global warming. (Author)

  19. Future Projection of Ocean Wave Climate: Analysis of SST Impacts on Wave Climate Changes in the Western North Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Shimura, Tomoya; Mori, Nobuhito; Mase, Hajime

    2015-01-01

    Changes in ocean surface waves elicit a variety of impacts on coastal environments. To assess the future changes in the ocean surface wave climate, several future projections of global wave climate have been simulated in previous studies. However, previously there has been little discussion about the causes behind changes in the future wave climate and the differences between projections. The objective of this study is to estimate the future changes in mean wave climate and the sensitivity of...

  20. The climate impact of future energy peat production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagberg, Linus; Holmgren, Kristina

    2008-09-15

    The aim of this study was to estimate total greenhouse gas emissions and climate impact of different peat utilisation scenarios, using a life cycle perspective. This and previous studies show that the climate impact from energy peat utilisation is more complex than just considering the emissions at the combustion stage. There are important emissions and uptake of greenhouse gases that occur on the peatland before, during and after peat harvest. The results show that the climate impact of future peat utilisation can be significantly reduced compared to current utilisation and will be lower than the climate impact resulting from only the combustion phase. This can be achieved by choosing already drained peatlands with high greenhouse gas emissions, using a more efficient production method and by securing a low-emission after-treatment of the cutaway (e.g. afforestation)

  1. Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Lauren A

    2015-01-01

    Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

  2. Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren A Freeman

    Full Text Available Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

  3. Temperature response to future urbanization and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P.; Fita, Lluís; Bormann, Kathryn J.

    2014-04-01

    This study examines the impact of future urban expansion on local near-surface temperature for Sydney (Australia) using a future climate scenario (A2). The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the present (1990-2009) and future (2040-2059) climates of the region at 2-km spatial resolution. The standard land use of the model was replaced with a more accurate dataset that covers the Sydney area. The future simulation incorporates the projected changes in the urban area of Sydney to account for the expected urban expansion. A comparison between areas with projected land use changes and their surroundings was conducted to evaluate how urbanization and global warming will act together and to ascertain their combined effect on the local climate. The analysis of the temperature changes revealed that future urbanization will strongly affect minimum temperature, whereas little impact was detected for maximum temperature. The minimum temperature changes will be noticeable throughout the year. However, during winter and spring these differences will be particularly large and the increases could be double the increase due to global warming alone at 2050. Results indicated that the changes were mostly due to increased heat capacity of urban structures and reduced evaporation in the city environment.

  4. Uncertain Future, Deliberate Action: Proceedings of the Circumpolar Climate Change Summit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Northern environments and communities are entering a period of unprecedented change. Emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities are altering the atmosphere and are expected to change global climate in ways that may be detrimental to our environmental, social and economic systems. An increasing body of observation provides convincing evidence of a warming world, and there is strong evidence that the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activity. While climate change science is, without a doubt, complicated and not all views about climate change are universally accepted by all, in northern Canada, climate change is no longer an abstract idea. There is strong scientific and anecdotal evidence that the northern environment is responding to new climatic conditions, evidence that strongly supports the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models and predictions on global climatic change. This conference, 'Uncertain future, deliberate action -- Climate Change in the Circumpolar North' was organized to provide northerners, and those with an interest in the North, an opportunity to learn more about climate change from internationally recognized experts, business leaders, professionals and community leaders who shared their ideas about climate change and the circumpolar North. Discussions, talks, exhibits, and posters were structured around the three themes of 'Understanding Climate Change in the North: (1) State of knowledge and new directions in research'; (2) 'Responding to climate change in the North: Measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and our vulnerability to a changing climate'; and (3) 'Policy and planning responses to climate change in the North'. This special issue of the NORTHERN REVIEW contains a report, and the presentations and discussions at the Summit, along with papers that complement the main themes

  5. Biocrust spectral response as affected by changing climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Guirado, Emilio; Escribano, Paula; Reyes, Andres; Weber, Bettina

    2017-04-01

    Drylands are characterized by scarce vegetation coverage and low rates of biological activity, both constrained by water scarcity. Under these conditions, biocrusts form key players of ecosystem functioning. They comprise complex poikilohydric communities of cyanobacteria, algae, lichens and bryophytes together with heterotrophic bacteria, archaea and fungi, which cover the uppermost soil layer. Biocrusts can cope with prolonged phases of drought, being rapidly re-activated when water becomes available again. Upon reactivation, biocrusts almost immediately turn green, fixing atmospheric carbon and nitrogen and increasing ecosystem productivity. However, due to their inconspicuous growth they have only rarely been analysed and spatially and temporally continuous information on their response to water pulses is missing. These data are particularly important under changing climatic conditions predicting an increase in aridity and variations in precipitation patterns within most of the dryland regions. In the present study, we used multi-temporal series of NDVI obtained from LANDSAT images to analyze biocrust and vegetation response to water pulses within the South African Succulent Karoo and we predicted their future response under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that biocrust and vegetation greenness are controlled by aridity, solar radiation and soil water content, showing similar annual patterns, with minimum values during dry periods that increased within the rainy season and decreased again after the onset of drought. However, biocrusts responded faster to water availability and turned green almost immediately after small rains, producing a small NDVI peak only few days after rainfall, whereas more time was needed for vegetation to grow new green tissue. However, once the photosynthetic tissue of vegetation was restored, it caused the highest increase of NDVI values after the rain. Predicted changes in precipitation patterns and aridity

  6. Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Matthews

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available It is thought that direct personal experience of extreme weather events could result in greater public engagement and policy response to climate change. Based on this premise, we present a set of future climate scenarios for Ireland communicated in the context of recent, observed extremes. Specifically, we examine the changing likelihood of extreme seasonal conditions in the long-term observational record, and explore how frequently such extremes might occur in a changed Irish climate according to the latest model projections. Over the period (1900–2014 records suggest a greater than 50-fold increase in the likelihood of the warmest recorded summer (1995, whilst the likelihood of the wettest winter (1994/95 and driest summer (1995 has respectively doubled since 1850. The most severe end-of-century climate model projections suggest that summers as cool as 1995 may only occur once every ∼7 years, whilst winters as wet as 1994/95 and summers as dry as 1995 may increase by factors of ∼8 and ∼10 respectively. Contrary to previous research, we find no evidence for increased wintertime storminess as the Irish climate warms, but caution that this conclusion may be an artefact of the metric employed. It is hoped that framing future climate scenarios in the context of extremes from living memory will help communicate the scale of the challenge climate change presents, and in so doing bridge the gap between climate scientists and wider society.

  7. Relationship between climate conditions and nosocomial infection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Nosocomial infections constitute a global health problem. Objective: To explore the relationship between nosocomial infection rates (NIRs) and climatic factors including temperature and relative humidity in Guangzhou area of China. Methods: 30892 patients in our hospital in 2009 were investigated for ...

  8. Community responses to extreme climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric JIGUET, Lluis BROTONS, Vincent DEVICTOR

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate [Current Zoology 57 (3: 406–413, 2011].

  9. The climate - Observing the past, conserving the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klotz, G.; Mazaud, A.; Saint-Jalm, F.

    2011-01-01

    Before we begin, we need to define the difference between meteorology and climatology. Meteorology is the study and forecasting of atmospheric phenomena over short periods of time, for specific geographic areas. The information dealt with is, therefore, temporary. Climatology investigates sets of meteorological conditions which are likely to affect different regions over long periods of time. The subject is built upon the foundations of various natural sciences: geography, geology, physics, chemistry... 'Climate involves changes in meteorological conditions considered over the entire planet'. The word 'climate' is used to refer to two distinct ideas. The more traditional meaning, which we learnt in our geography classes, is a property of a given location: the Earth is divided into climatic areas as a function of the meteorological conditions which dominate the various seasons in those regions. The second meaning of the word 'climate' refers to a global approach with respect to time: in this case, we are interested in changes in meteorological conditions considered over the entire planet and over long time periods (at least 30 years). It is this second meaning of the word that forms the subject of this leaflet, a leaflet which aims to explain how the global climate functions. (authors)

  10. Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellard, Céline; Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck

    2012-04-01

    Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  11. Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, Cyril; Medlock, Jolyon M.; Ducheyne, Els; McIntyre, K. Marie; Leach, Steve; Baylis, Matthew; Morse, Andrew P.

    2012-01-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion. PMID:22535696

  12. Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: future climate scenarios in a regional simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Lionello

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Future climate projections show higher/lower winter (Dec-Jan-Feb precipitation in the northern/southern Mediterranean region than in present climate conditions. This paper analyzes the results of regional model simulations of the A2 and B2 scenarios, which confirm this opposite precipitation change and link it to the change of cyclone activity. The increase of the winter cyclone activity in future climate scenarios over western Europe is responsible for the larger precipitation at the northern coast of the basin, though the bulk of the change is located outside the Mediterranean region. The reduction of cyclone activity inside the Mediterranean region in future scenarios is responsible for the lower precipitation at the southern and eastern Mediterranean coast.

  13. Modelling recent and future climatic suitability for fasciolosis in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, Cyril; van Dijk, Jan; Baylis, Matthew; Williams, Diana

    2015-03-19

    Fasciola hepatica is a parasitic worm responsible for fasciolosis in grazed ruminants in Europe. The free-living stages of this parasite are sensitive to temperature and soil moisture, as are the intermediate snail hosts the parasite depends on for its life-cycle. We used a climate-driven disease model in order to assess the impact of recent and potential future climate changes on the incidence of fasciolosis and to estimate the related uncertainties at the scale of the European landmass. The current climate appears to be highly suitable for fasciolosis throughout the European Union with the exception of some parts of the Mediterranean region. Simulated climatic suitability for fasciolosis significantly increased during the 2000s in central and northwestern Europe, which is consistent with an observed increased in ruminant infections. The simulation showed that recent trends are likely to continue in the future with the estimated pattern of climate change for northern Europe, possibly extending the season suitable for development of the parasite in the environment by up to four months. For southern Europe, the simulated burden of disease may be lower, but the projected climate change will increase the risk during the winter months, since the simulated changes in temperature and moisture support the development of the free-living and intra-molluscan stages between November and March. In the event of predicted climate change, F. hepatica will present a serious risk to the health, welfare and productivity of all ruminant livestock. Improved, bespoke control programmes, both at farm and region levels, will then become imperative if problems, such as resistance of the parasite associated with increased drug use, are to be mitigated.

  14. Impacts of Future Grassland Changes on Surface Climate in Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change caused by land use/cover change (LUCC is becoming a hot topic in current global change, especially the changes caused by the grassland degradation. In this paper, based on the baseline underlying surface data of 1993, the predicted underlying surface data which can be derived through overlaying the grassland degradation information to the map of baseline underlying surface, and the atmospheric forcing data of RCP 6.0 from CMIP5, climatological changes caused by future grassland changes for the years 2010–2020 and 2040–2050 with the Weather Research Forecast model (WRF are simulated. The model-based analysis shows that future grassland degradation will significantly result in regional climate change. The grassland degradation in future could lead to an increasing trend of temperature in most areas and corresponding change range of the annual average temperature of −0.1°C–0.4°C, and it will cause a decreasing trend of precipitation and corresponding change range of the annual average precipitation of 10 mm–50 mm. This study identifies lines of evidence for effects of future grassland degradation on regional climate in Mongolia which provides meaningful decision-making information for the development and strategy plan making in Mongolia.

  15. Future tendencies of climate indicators important for adaptation and mitigation strategies in forestry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galos, Borbala; Hänsler, Andreas; Gulyas, Krisztina; Bidlo, Andras; Czimber, Kornel

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is expected to have severe impacts in the forestry sector, especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where forests are vulnerable and sensitive to the increasing probability and severity of climatic extremes, especially to droughts. For providing information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options for the Carpathian basin, a GIS-supported Decision Support System is under development. This study focuses on the future tendencies of climate indicators that determine the distribution, growth, health status and production of forests as well as the potential pests and diseases. For the analyses the climate database of the Decision Support System has been applied, which contains daily time series for precipitation and temperature means and extremes as well as derived climate indices for 1961-2100. For the future time period, simulation results of 12 regional climate models are included (www.ensembles-eu.org) based on the A1B emission scenario. The main results can be summarized as follows: · The projected change of the climate indices (e.g. total number of hot days, frost days, dry days, consecutive dry periods) and forestry indices (e.g. Ellenberg climate quotient, Forestry aridity index; Tolerance index for beech) indicates the warming and drying of the growing season towards the end of the 21st century. These can have severe consequences on the ecosystem services of forests. · The climatic suitable area of the native tree species is projected to move northwards and upwards in the mountains, respectively. For beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) this shift would mean the drastic shrink of the distribution area in the analyzed region. · The characteristic climate conditions that are expected in the Carpathian basin in the second half of the century, are now located southeastern from the case study region. In this way, the potential future provenance regions can be determined. Results provide input for the climate

  16. Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Simulated Case for China’s Wheat System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dengpan Xiao

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available With regard to global climate change due to increasing concentration in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2, it is important to examine its potential impact on crop development and production. We used statistically-downscaled climate data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM–Wheat model to simulate the impact of future climate change on wheat production. Two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations during two different future periods (2031–2060 referred to as 40S and 2071–2100 referred to as 80S. Relative to the baseline period (1981–2010, the trends in mean daily temperature and radiation significantly increased across all stations under the future scenarios. Furthermore, the trends in precipitation increased under future climate scenarios. Due to climate change, the trend in wheat phenology significantly advanced. The early flowering and maturity dates shortened both the vegetative growth stage (VGP and the whole growth period (WGP. As the advance in the days of maturity was more than that in flowering, the length of the reproductive growth stage (RGP of spring wheat was shortened. However, as the advance in the date of maturity was less than that of flowering, the RGP of winter wheat was extended. When the increase in CO2 concentration under future climate scenarios was not considered, the trend in change in wheat production for the baseline declined. In contrast, under increased CO2 concentration, the trend in wheat yield increased for most of the stations (except for Nangong station under future climatic conditions. Winter wheat and spring wheat evapotranspiration (ET decreased across all stations under the two future climate scenarios. As wheat yield increased with decreasing water consumption (as ET under the future climatic conditions, water use efficiency (WUE significantly improved in the future period.

  17. Georgian climate change under global warming conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Elizbarashvili

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Georgian Climate change has been considered comprehensively, taking into account World Meteorological Organization recommendations and recent observation data. On the basis of mean temperature and precipitation decadal trend geo-information maps for 1936–2012 years period, Georgian territory zoning has been carried out and for each areas climate indices main trends have been studied, that best characterize climate change - cold and hot days, tropical nights, vegetation period duration, diurnal maximum precipitation, maximum five-day total precipitation, precipitation intensity simple index, precipitation days number of at least 10 mm, 20 mm and 50 mm, rainy and rainless periods duration. Trends of temperature indices are statistically significant. On the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland at high confidence level cold and hot days and tropical nights number changes are statistically significant. On eastern Georgia plains at high level of statistical significance, the change of all considered temperature indices has been fixed except for the number of hot days. In mountainous areas only hot day number increasing is significant. Trends of most moisture indices are statistically insignificant. While keeping Georgian climate change current trends, precipitation amount on the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland, as well as in some parts of Western Caucasus to the end of the century will increase by 50% and amounts to 3000 and 6000 mm, respectively this will strengthen humidity of those areas. Besides increasing of rainy period duration may constitute the risk for flooding and high waters. On eastern Georgia plains, in particular Kvemo Kartli, annual precipitation amount will decrease by 50% or more, and will be only 150–200 mm and the precipitation daily maximum will decrease by about 20 mm and be only 10–15 mm, which of course will increase the intensity of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes.

  18. Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trnka, Miroslav; Olesen, J. E.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Skjelvag, A. O.; Eitzinger, J.; Seguin, B.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Rotter, R.; Iglesias, A.; Orlandini, S.; Dubrovský, Martin; Hlavinka, P.; Balek, J.; Eckersten, H.; Cloppet, E.; Calanca, P.; Vucetic, V.; Nejedlík, P.; Kumar, S.; Lalic, B.; Mestre, A.; Rossi, F.; Kozyra, J.; Alexandrov, V.; Semerádová, D.; Žalud, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 7 (2011), s. 2298-2318 ISSN 1354-1013 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520; CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : agroclimatic extremes * agroclimatic index * climate- change impacts * crop production * environmental zones Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 6.862, year: 2011

  19. Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake, Iain R; Jones, Natalia R; Agnew, Maureen; Goodess, Clare M; Giorgi, Filippo; Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Semenov, Mikhail A; Solomon, Fabien; Storkey, Jonathan; Vautard, Robert; Epstein, Michelle M

    2017-03-01

    Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed ( Ambrosia artemisiifolia ) in Europe. A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR

  20. Past and future effects of climate change on spatially heterogeneous vegetation activity in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jiangbo; Jiao, Kewei; Wu, Shaohong; Ma, Danyang; Zhao, Dongsheng; Yin, Yunhe; Dai, Erfu

    2017-07-01

    Climate change is a major driver of vegetation activity but its complex ecological relationships impede research efforts. In this study, the spatial distribution and dynamic characteristics of climate change effects on vegetation activity in China from the 1980s to the 2010s and from 2021 to 2050 were investigated using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The GWR model was based on combined datasets of satellite vegetation index, climate observation and projection, and future vegetation productivity simulation. Our results revealed that the significantly positive precipitation-vegetation relationship was and will be mostly distributed in North China. However, the regions with temperature-dominated distribution of vegetation activity were and will be mainly located in South China. Due to the varying climate features and vegetation cover, the spatial correlation between vegetation activity and climate change may be altered. There will be different dominant climatic factors for vegetation activity distribution in some regions such as Northwest China, and even opposite correlations in Northeast China. Additionally, the response of vegetation activity to precipitation will move southward in the next three decades. In contrast, although the high warming rate will restrain the vegetation activity, precipitation variability could modify hydrothermal conditions for vegetation activity. This observation is exemplified in the projected future enhancement of vegetation activity in the Tibetan Plateau and weakened vegetation activity in East and Middle China. Furthermore, the vegetation in most parts of North China may adapt to an arid environment, whereas in many southern areas, vegetation will be repressed by water shortage in the future.

  1. Past and future evolutions of New-Caledonia climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cavarero, Virgil; Peltier, Alexandre; Aubail, Xavier; Leroy, Anne; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Jourdain, Sylvie; Gibelin, Anne-Laure; Ganachaud, Alexandre; Lefevre, Jerome; Menkes, Christophe; Lengaigne, Matthieu

    2012-01-01

    Homogenized series of temperature and precipitation data for the late 20. century in New-Caledonia are presented. Annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.3 and 0.2 deg. C per decade respectively. A quantile-quantile down-scaling method has been performed on IPCC AR4 numerical simulations in order to study the impact of climate change on New-Caledonia in the future. The minimum and maximum temperatures would increase by between 1.5 and 2.7 deg. C by the end of the 21. century, relative to the 1971-1999 period, depending on greenhouse gases emission scenarios. It also appears that the temperature of the future would support an increase in the frequency of the years that climatically favour outbreaks of dengue fever. No significant trend appears in observations of total annual precipitation, or in projections. (authors)

  2. Weather, climate and the future : B.C.'s plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-12-01

    This plan lays the groundwork for a comprehensive long-term response to climate change in British Columbia (BC). Three key objectives were identified: decreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reducing vulnerability to future climate change; contributing to BC's economic revitalization by improving energy efficiency and supporting development of market opportunities; and ensuring BC's interests are protected in the implementation of national climate policies. A summary of actions was provided in the areas of sustainable energy production and sustainable forest management. Outlines of the government's plans to provide support to the BC Agriculture Council were also provided along with plans concerning infrastructure and the ways in which climate change will be incorporated into transportation planning and investment strategies. A list of government leadership and outreach actions was given, as well as details of water management plans. It was concluded that further policy developments will be required in incremental forest sinks, energy efficiency, bioenergy and fuel cell technology. Improved urban development and performance targets are necessary for public buildings. It was noted that regulatory changes to provide further incentives in these areas are necessary. Partnerships between the private sector, federal, local and regional governments will be essential for the future success of this plan. tabs., figs

  3. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

    2010-01-01

    Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

  4. Power engineering under conditions of climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wajs, K.

    1993-01-01

    One of the climatic phenomena fairly well connected with power engineering in the so called greenhouse effect. It is caused by increase of emission to the atmosphere of the so called greenhouse gases, especially CO 2 . Mechanism of this phenomenon and the relevant observations are discussed. Basic models of the circulation of greenhouse gases are outlined and the relevant conclusions as to various probable results, especially for a large time scale, are given. Tasks in the area of power engineering activity in the present situation are described. (author). 19 refs

  5. simulation du climat futur et des rendements agricoles en region

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    2017, African Crop Science Society. African Crop Science Journal by African Crop Science Society is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Uganda License. Based on a work at www.ajol.info/ and www.bioline.org.br/cs. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/acsj.v25i4.2. SIMULATION DU CLIMAT FUTUR ET DES ...

  6. Changes in Convective Rainfall in future climates over Western Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadian, A.; Burton, R.; Blyth, A. M.; Mobbs, S.; Warner, J.; Groves, J.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Tye, M. R.; Thielen, J.

    2016-12-01

    This project aims to analyse extreme convective weather events over the European domain in a future climate scenario using the Weather Research Forecasting model (WRF). Climate models have insufficient resolution to properly simulate small meso-scale precipitation events which are critical in understanding climate change. Use of a weather model is specifically designed to resolve small (and large) scale processes and in particular to be convection permitting. Changes in extreme weather events in the future climate can be represented as small scale processes and regional meso-scale precipitation events. A channel outer domain (D01), with a resolution of 20km at +/-300 N/S and 8km at 680N, drives a one way nested inner domain resolution which is a factor of 5:1 smaller. For calibration purposes, the outer domain is driven at the Northern / Southern boundaries either by ERA-interim or bias corrected data CCSM for 1989-1995. For the future simulations, the outer domain is driven by CCSM data for 2020-2025 and 2030-2035. An initial analysis for the inner domain convection over Western Europe will be presented. This presentation will provide details of the project. An inter-comparison of the simulations driven for 1990-1995 will provide information on the applicability of using the climate data driven results for the analysis of the future years. Initial plots of changes in precipitation over the future decades will focus on the summer precipitation, providing mean and standard deviation changes. The results indicate that the summer months are dryer, the wet events become shorter, with longer dry periods. The peak precipitation for the events does not increase, but the average rainfall and the amount of heavy rain (>7.6mm / hour) does increase. Future plans for use of the data will be discussed. Use the output data to drive the EFAS (European Flood model) to examine the predicted changes in quantity and frequency of severe and hazardous convective rainfall events and

  7. Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

    2017-10-01

    Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

  8. Modelling of future hydrogeological conditions at SFR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmen, L.G.; Stigsson, M.

    2001-03-01

    The purpose is to estimate the future groundwater movements at the SFR repository and to produce input to the quantitative safety assessment of the SFR. The future flow pattern of the groundwater is of interest, since components of the waste emplaced in a closed and abandoned repository will dissolve in the groundwater and be transported by the groundwater to the ground surface. The study is based on a system analysis approach. Three-dimensional models were devised of the studied domain. The models include the repository tunnels and the surrounding rock mass with fracture zones. The formal models used for simulation of the groundwater flow are three-dimensional mathematical descriptions of the studied hydraulic system. The studied domain is represented on four scales - regional, local, semi local and detailed - forming four models with different resolutions: regional, local, semi local and detailed models. The local and detailed models include a detailed description of the tunnel system at SFR and of surrounding rock mass and fracture zones. In addition, the detailed model includes description of the different structures that take place inside the deposition tunnels. At the area studied, the shoreline will retreat due to the shore level displacement; this process is included in the models. The studied period starts at 2000 AD and continues until a steady state like situation is reached for the surroundings of the SFR at ca 6000 AD. The models predict that as long as the sea covers the ground above the SFR, the regional groundwater flow as well as the flow in the deposition tunnels are small. However, due to the shore level displacement the shoreline (the sea) will retreat. Because of the retreating shoreline, the general direction of the groundwater flow at SFR will change, from vertical upward to a more horizontal flow; the size of the groundwater flow will be increased as well. The present layout of the SFR includes five deposition tunnels: SILO, BMA, BLA, BTF1

  9. Revisiting historical climatic signals to better explore the future: prospects of water cycle changes in Central Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leauthaud, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Grippa, M.; Kergoat, L.; Velluet, C.; Guichard, F.; Mougin, E.; Chelbi, S.; Sultan, B.

    2015-06-01

    Rainfall and climatic conditions are the main drivers of natural and cultivated vegetation productivity in the semiarid region of Central Sahel. In a context of decreasing cultivable area per capita, understanding and predicting changes in the water cycle are crucial. Yet, it remains challenging to project future climatic conditions in West Africa since there is no consensus on the sign of future precipitation changes in simulations coming from climate models. The Sahel region has experienced severe climatic changes in the past 60 years that can provide a first basis to understand the response of the water cycle to non-stationary conditions in this part of the world. The objective of this study was to better understand the response of the water cycle to highly variable climatic regimes in Central Sahel using historical climate records and the coupling of a land surface energy and water model with a vegetation model that, when combined, simulated the Sahelian water, energy and vegetation cycles. To do so, we relied on a reconstructed long-term climate series in Niamey, Republic of Niger, in which three precipitation regimes can be distinguished with a relative deficit exceeding 25% for the driest period compared to the wettest period. Two temperature scenarios (+2 and +4 °C) consistent with future warming scenarios were superimposed to this climatic signal to generate six virtual future 20-year climate time series. Simulations by the two coupled models forced by these virtual scenarios showed a strong response of the water budget and its components to temperature and precipitation changes, including decreases in transpiration, runoff and drainage for all scenarios but those with highest precipitation. Such climatic changes also strongly impacted soil temperature and moisture. This study illustrates the potential of using the strong climatic variations recorded in the past decades to better understand potential future climate variations.

  10. Floridian heatwaves and extreme precipitation: future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavendra, Ajay; Dai, Aiguo; Milrad, Shawn M.; Cloutier-Bisbee, Shealynn R.

    2018-02-01

    Observational analysis and climate modeling efforts concur that the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves will increase as the Earth's mean climate shifts towards warmer temperatures. While the impacts and mechanisms of heatwaves have been well explored, extreme temperatures over Florida are generally understudied. This paper sheds light on Floridian heatwaves by exploring 13 years of daily data from surface observations and high-resolution WRF climate simulations for the same timeframe. The characteristics of the current and future heatwaves under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario for 2070-2099 were then investigated. Results show a tripling in the frequency, and greater than a sixfold increase in the mean duration of heatwaves over Florida when the current standard of heatwaves was used. The intensity of heatwaves also increased by 4-6 °C due to the combined effects of rising mean temperatures and a 1-2 °C increase attributed to the flattening of the temperature distribution. Since Florida's atmospheric boundary layer is rich in moisture and heatwaves could further increase the moisture content in the lower troposphere, the relationship between heatwaves and extreme precipitation was also explored in both the current and future climate. As expected, rainfall during a heatwave event was anomalously low, but it quickly recovered to normal within 3 days after the passage of a heatwave. Finally, the late 21st-century climate could witness a slight decrease in the mean precipitation over Florida, accompanied by heavier heatwave-associated extreme precipitation events over central and southern Florida.

  11. SIMULATION OF NET INFILTRATION FOR MODERN AND POTENTIAL FUTURE CLIMATES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J.A. Heveal

    2000-01-01

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) describes enhancements made to the infiltration model documented in Flint et al. (1996) and documents an analysis using the enhanced model to generate spatial and temporal distributions over a model domain encompassing the Yucca Mountain site, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone, the average depth below the ground surface (at a given location) from which water is removed by evapotranspiration. The estimates of net infiltration are used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale 3-dimensional Unsaturated-Zone Ground Water Flow and Transport (UZ flow and transport) Model (CRWMS M and O 2000a). The UZ flow and transport model is one of several process models abstracted by the Total System Performance Assessment model to evaluate expected performance of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, in terms of radionuclide transport (CRWMS M and O 1998). The net-infiltration model is important for assessing potential repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow and transport model that is used to generate flow fields for evaluating potential radionuclide transport through the unsaturated zone. Estimates of net infiltration are provided as raster-based, 2-dimensional grids of spatially distributed, time-averaged rates for three different climate stages estimated as likely conditions for the next 10,000 years beyond the present. Each climate stage is represented using a lower bound, a mean, and an upper bound climate and corresponding net-infiltration scenario for representing uncertainty in the characterization of daily climate conditions for each climate stage, as well as potential climate variability within each climate stage. The set of nine raster grid maps provide

  12. SIMULATION OF NET INFILTRATION FOR MODERN AND POTENTIAL FUTURE CLIMATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.A. Heveal

    2000-06-16

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) describes enhancements made to the infiltration model documented in Flint et al. (1996) and documents an analysis using the enhanced model to generate spatial and temporal distributions over a model domain encompassing the Yucca Mountain site, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone, the average depth below the ground surface (at a given location) from which water is removed by evapotranspiration. The estimates of net infiltration are used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale 3-dimensional Unsaturated-Zone Ground Water Flow and Transport (UZ flow and transport) Model (CRWMS M&O 2000a). The UZ flow and transport model is one of several process models abstracted by the Total System Performance Assessment model to evaluate expected performance of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, in terms of radionuclide transport (CRWMS M&O 1998). The net-infiltration model is important for assessing potential repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow and transport model that is used to generate flow fields for evaluating potential radionuclide transport through the unsaturated zone. Estimates of net infiltration are provided as raster-based, 2-dimensional grids of spatially distributed, time-averaged rates for three different climate stages estimated as likely conditions for the next 10,000 years beyond the present. Each climate stage is represented using a lower bound, a mean, and an upper bound climate and corresponding net-infiltration scenario for representing uncertainty in the characterization of daily climate conditions for each climate stage, as well as potential climate variability within each climate stage. The set of nine raster grid maps provide spatially

  13. Imaginary politics: Climate change and making the future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manjana Milkoreit

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change places major transformational demands on modern societies. Transformations require the capacity to collectively envision and meaningfully debate realistic and desirable futures. Without such a collective imagination capacity and active deliberation processes, societies lack both the motivation for change and guidance for decision-making in a certain direction of change. Recent arguments that science fiction can play a role in societal transformation processes is not yet supported by theory or empirical evidence. Advancing the argument that fiction can support sustainability transformations, this paper makes four contributions. First, building on the imaginary concept, I introduce and define the idea of socio-climatic imaginaries. Second, I develop a theory of imagination as linked cognitive-social processes that enable the creation of collectively shared visions of future states of the world. This theory addresses the dynamics that bridge imagination processes in the individual mind and collective imagining that informs social and political decision-making. Third, emphasizing the political nature of creating and contesting imaginaries in a society, I introduce the role of power and agency in this theory of collective imagination. I argue that both ideational and structural power concepts are relevant for understanding the potential societal influence of climate fiction. Finally, the paper illuminates these different forms of transformational power and agency with two brief case studies: two climate fiction novels. I contrast a dystopian and utopian science fiction novel – Paolo Bacigalupi’s The Water Knife (2015 and Kim Stanley Robinson's Green Earth (2015. The two books are very similar in their power/agency profile, but the comparison provides initial insights into the different roles of optimistic and pessimistic future visions.

  14. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O' Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

  15. Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Villarino, E

    2015-07-02

    Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

  16. Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Villarino, E; Chust, G; Licandro, P; Butenschö n, M; Ibaibarriaga, L; Larrañ aga, A; Irigoien, Xabier

    2015-01-01

    Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

  17. Langley Research Center Utility Risk from Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Young, Russell J.; Ganoe, Rene

    2015-01-01

    The successful operation of NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) depends on services provided by several public utility companies. These include Newport News Waterworks, Dominion Virginia Power, Virginia Natural Gas and Hampton Roads Sanitation District. LaRC's plan to respond to future climate change should take into account how these companies plan to avoid interruption of services while minimizing cost to the customers. This report summarizes our findings from publicly available documents on how each company plans to respond. This will form the basis for future planning for the Center. Our preliminary findings show that flooding and severe storms could interrupt service from the Waterworks and Sanitation District but the potential is low due to plans in place to address climate change on their system. Virginia Natural Gas supplies energy to produce steam but most current steam comes from the Hampton trash burning plant, thus interruption risk is low. Dominion Virginia Power does not address climate change impacts on their system in their public reports. The potential interruption risk is considered to be medium. The Hampton Roads Sanitation District is projecting a major upgrade of their system to mitigate clean water inflow and infiltration. This will reduce infiltration and avoid overloading the pump stations and treatment plants.

  18. Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Le Page

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

  19. Recent and Future Climate Change in Northwest China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, Yafeng; Shen, Yongping; Kang, Ersi; Li, Dongliang; Ding, Yongjian [Cold and Arid Regions, Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000 (China); Zhang, Guowei [Xinjiang Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources, Urumqi, 830010 (China); Hu, Ruji [Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011 (China)

    2007-02-15

    As a consequence of global warming and an enhanced water cycle, the climate changed in northwest China, most notably in the Xinjiang area in the year 1987. Precipitation, glacial melt water and river runoff and air temperature increased continuously during the last decades, as did also the water level of inland lakes and the frequency of flood disasters. As a result, the vegetation cover is improved, number of days with sand-dust storms reduced. From the end of the 19th century to the 1970s, the climate was warm and dry, and then changed to warm and wet. The effects on northwest China can be classified into three classes by using the relation between precipitation and evaporation increase. If precipitation increases more than evaporation, runoff increases and lake water levels rise. We identify regions with: (1) notable change, (2) slight change and (3) no change. The future climate for doubled CO2 concentration is simulated in a nested approach with the regional climate model-RegCM2. The annual temperature will increase by 2.7C and annual precipitation by 25%. The cooling effect of aerosols and natural factors will reduce this increase to 2.0C and 19% of precipitation. As a consequence, annual runoff may increase by more than 10%.

  20. Recent and Future Climate Change in Northwest China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi, Yafeng; Shen, Yongping; Kang, Ersi; Li, Dongliang; Ding, Yongjian; Zhang, Guowei; Hu, Ruji

    2007-01-01

    As a consequence of global warming and an enhanced water cycle, the climate changed in northwest China, most notably in the Xinjiang area in the year 1987. Precipitation, glacial melt water and river runoff and air temperature increased continuously during the last decades, as did also the water level of inland lakes and the frequency of flood disasters. As a result, the vegetation cover is improved, number of days with sand-dust storms reduced. From the end of the 19th century to the 1970s, the climate was warm and dry, and then changed to warm and wet. The effects on northwest China can be classified into three classes by using the relation between precipitation and evaporation increase. If precipitation increases more than evaporation, runoff increases and lake water levels rise. We identify regions with: (1) notable change, (2) slight change and (3) no change. The future climate for doubled CO2 concentration is simulated in a nested approach with the regional climate model-RegCM2. The annual temperature will increase by 2.7C and annual precipitation by 25%. The cooling effect of aerosols and natural factors will reduce this increase to 2.0C and 19% of precipitation. As a consequence, annual runoff may increase by more than 10%

  1. Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

    2018-04-01

    Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

  2. Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akiko Hirata

    Full Text Available Pine wilt disease (PWD constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22. For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and two time periods (2050s and 2070s. We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area. Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

  3. CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Belda, M.; Skalák, Petr; Farda, Aleš; Halenka, T.; Déqué, M.; Csima, G.; Bartholy, J.; Torma, C.; Boroneant, C.; Caian, M.; Spiridonov, V.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 2015, č. 2015 (2015), s. 354727 ISSN 1687-9309 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * project Cecilia * modelling activities * aladin Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.107, year: 2015

  4. How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Blois, Jessica L; Williams, John W; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Maguire, Kaitlin C; Lorenz, David J

    2018-03-23

    Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. Climate novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns to climate variables and then use these relationships to forecast ecological responses to future climate change. Here, we quantify the magnitude and ecological significance of future climate novelty by comparing it to novel climates over the past 21,000 years in North America. We then use relationships between model performance and climate novelty derived from the fossil pollen record from eastern North America to estimate the expected decrease in predictive skill of ecological forecasting models as future climate novelty increases. We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and by late 21st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21,000 years. The accuracy of ecological forecasting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, although models that incorporate co-occurrences among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantifying future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improvement, such as increased reliance on geological analogs for future novel climates and improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assemblage-level information. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Conditional and future tense impairment in non-fluent aphasia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rofes, Adrià; Bastiaanse, Roelien; Martínez-Ferreiro, Silvia

    2014-01-01

    Background:Morphological errors of tense and agreement are salient in agrammatic aphasia. The PADILIH predicts impairments in discourse linking that translate to greater difficulties in referring to a past event time than to a future or a present event time. In Catalan, the Periphrastic conditional...... between verb forms that refer to an irrealis future event (Simple conditional and Future). We also assessed whether problems in time reference extend to individuals with non-fluent aphasia that are not typical agrammatic Broca aphasia. Methods & Procedures:A sentence completion task that included 60...... sentences (20 per type) of equal length in a Conditional structure (if-sentences) was designed. We tested three sentence types: Periphrastic conditional, Simple conditional and Future. The task was administered to nine participants with non-fluent aphasia and nine age-matched non-brain-damaged participants...

  6. Impact of anthropogenic aerosols on present and future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deandreis, C.

    2008-03-01

    Aerosols influence the Earth radiative budget both through their direct effect (scattering and absorption of solar radiation) and their indirect effect (impacts on cloud microphysics). The role of anthropogenic aerosol in climate change has been recognized to be significant when compared to the one of greenhouse gases. Despite many studies on this topic, the assessments of both anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and their impacts on meteorological variables are still very uncertain. Major reasons for these uncertainties stem from the insufficient knowledge of the emissions sources and of the processes of formation, transformation and deposition. Models used to study climate are often inadequate to study aerosol processes because of coarse spatial and temporal scales. Uncertainties due to the parameterization of the aerosol are added to the uncertainties in the representation of large scale dynamics and physical processes such as transport, hydrological cycle and radiative budget. To predict, the role of the anthropogenic aerosol impact in the future climate change, I have addressed some of these key uncertainties. In this study, I simulate interactively aerosols processes in a climate model in order to improve the estimation of their direct and indirect effects. I estimate a modification of the top of the atmosphere net flux of 60% for the present period. I also show that, for future projection, the representation of the emissions source is an other important source of error. I assess that aerosols radiative forcing differ by 40% between simulations performed with 2 different emissions inventories. These inventories are representative for a high and a low limit in term of carbonaceous aerosols emissions for the 2050 horizon. (author)

  7. Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

  8. Effects of city expansion on heat stress under climate change conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Argüeso

    Full Text Available We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990-2009 and future (2040-2059 simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort.

  9. Future wheat yields in Western Australia under a warmer and drier climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farre, Imma; Foster, Ian; Charles, Steve

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Climate change projections for the mid 21st century for southern Western Australia indicate an increase in temperatures, a decrease in rainfall and higher C02 concentrations. These changes could have adverse impacts on some agricultural systems, but they may also offer new opportunities (i.e. in areas where the risk of waterlogging may be reduced). In this paper we studied the potential impacts of climate change on wheat production by combining three modelling systems. Daily climate data for current and future conditions from the CCAM climate model was statistically downscaled to individual locations in the Western Australia wheatbelt. This climate data was then input to the APSIM-Wheat simulation model to evaluate yields and phenology under current and future climate for several soil types. The aim was to investigate the usefulness of such a modelling cascade in defining key risks to wheat cropping from projected climate change. In an earlier stage of the project, we compared climate simulation from several climate models (CSIRO Mk3, CCAM, ECHAM and HADCM), and selected the CCAM model as best representing the climate of southern Western Australia. This was used for a more detailed study of the impacts on wheat cropping. The APSIM model simulates crop development, yield, water uptake and nitrogen accumulation in response to temperature, radiation, C02 level, water and nitrogen supply. It offers a framework for investigating interactions and testing some simple adaptation options. The CCAM model simulated total annual rainfall reductions of 5-11% for 2050 across the locations studied (consistent with other model projections). Total annual rainfall reductions tended to be higher in the high-rainfall locations than in the low- or medium-rainfall locations. The highest seasonal rainfall reduction was predicted for April-June, resulting in later sowing opportunities and decreasing expected yields. The impacts of climate change varied depending on

  10. Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archis, Jennifer N; Akcali, Christopher; Stuart, Bryan L; Kikuchi, David; Chunco, Amanda J

    2018-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake ( Micrurus fulvius ). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

  11. Human requirements in future air-conditioned environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fanger, Povl Ole

    1999-01-01

    Although air-conditioning has played a positive role for economic development in warm climates, its image is globally mixed. Field studies demonstrate that there are substantial numbers of dissatisfied people in many buildings, among them those suffering from Sick Building Syndrome (SBS) symptoms...

  12. Human requirements in future air-conditioned environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fanger, Povl Ole

    2001-01-01

    Although air-conditioning has played a positive role for economic development in warm climates, its image is globally mixed. Field studies demonstrate that there are substantial numbers of dissatisfied people in many buildings, among them those suffering from Sick Building Syndrome (SBS) symptoms...

  13. Human requirements in future air-conditioned environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fanger, Povl Ole

    2002-01-01

    Air-conditioning of buildings has played a very positive role for economic development in warm climates. Still its image is globally mixed. Field studies demonstrate that there are substantial numbers of dissatisfied people in many buildings, among them those suffering from SBS symptoms, even...

  14. Study on the Future Climate Change and Its Influence on the Growth Stage and Yield of Wheat in Weifang City

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jing; YUAN; Jianping; XU; Lijuan; SUN; Xiuzhen; ZHANG; Xiaoli; WANG

    2015-01-01

    In order to study the trend of climate change in the future in Weifang,and analyze the impact of climate change on the local wheat production,the air temperature and precipitation in Weifang from 2021 to 2050 were simulated by using the regional climate model PRECIS.And then put the meteorological data into the crop model to simulate the growth of wheat under climate change conditions in the future.The results showed that there would be a trend of rising temperature and increasing precipitation in Weifang in the future.Climate warming would result in growth period of wheat to be ahead of schedule and yield reduction.If taking into account the effect of CO2,the yield of wheat would increase.

  15. DEVELOPMENT OF AUTOMATED SYSTEM OF CLIMATE CONDITIONS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novikova L.V.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The scientific work is devoted to the analysis and development of the automated control system of the climatic conditions of the minites. The analysis of existing automated control systems is carried out, in particular attention is paid to the systems of climate control of greenhouses. The technical means of the control system are determined. As a platform, Arduino®Uno is selected.

  16. Future Flows Climate: an ensemble of 1-km climate change projections for hydrological application in Great Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Prudhomme

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The dataset Future Flows Climate was developed as part of the project ''Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications, and to enable climate change uncertainty and climate variability to be accounted for in the assessment of their possible impacts on the environment.

    Future Flows Climate is derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE that is part of the basis of UKCP09 and includes projections in available precipitation (water available to hydrological processes after snow and ice storages have been accounted for and potential evapotranspiration. It corresponds to an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1950 to December 2098, each a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3. Data are provided on a 1-km grid over the HadRM3 land areas at a daily (available precipitation and monthly (PE time step as netCDF files.

    Because systematic biases in temperature and precipitation were found between HadRM3-PPE and gridded temperature and precipitation observations for the 1962–1991 period, a monthly bias correction procedure was undertaken, based on a linear correction for temperature and a quantile-mapping correction (using the gamma distribution for precipitation followed by a spatial downscaling. Available precipitation was derived from the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature time series using a simple elevation-dependant snow-melt model. Potential evapotranspiration time series were calculated for each month using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equations and bias-corrected temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed from HadRM3-PPE along with latitude of the grid and the day of the year.

    Future Flows Climate is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. It is the

  17. Effect Of Climatic Conditions On Durability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahem M. Al Kiki

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Durability is one of the most important subjects in the soil stabilization. Since there is no specifications concerned the durability of lime stabilized soils, several factors were selected to show their effects on the durability, namely: wetting, drying, freezing, thawing and slaking.The effect of each one of the above factors as well as the combined effect of two or more factors, were studied on the volume change and soil strength and weight loss of soil samples stabilized with optimum lime content except the slaking test at which soil samples stabilized with different lime content.Tests results showed that the higher the lime content the lower the slaking effect, also its found the soil strength decreased when the period of immersion or freezing increased. The strength of the lime stabilized soils decreased when subjected to the cycles of wetting and drying or to the cycles freezing and thawing. However, the  combined effect of wetting, drying, freezing and thawing has a pronounced effect on reduction of the lime stabilized clayey soil. The worst condition recorded when lime stabilized soil undergo to freezing then drying then wetting which should be avoided in the field

  18. Leaf Dynamics of Panicum maximum under Future Climatic Changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britto de Assis Prado, Carlos Henrique; Haik Guedes de Camargo-Bortolin, Lívia; Castro, Érique; Martinez, Carlos Alberto

    2016-01-01

    Panicum maximum Jacq. 'Mombaça' (C4) was grown in field conditions with sufficient water and nutrients to examine the effects of warming and elevated CO2 concentrations during the winter. Plants were exposed to either the ambient temperature and regular atmospheric CO2 (Control); elevated CO2 (600 ppm, eC); canopy warming (+2°C above regular canopy temperature, eT); or elevated CO2 and canopy warming (eC+eT). The temperatures and CO2 in the field were controlled by temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) and mini free-air CO2 enrichment (miniFACE) facilities. The most green, expanding, and expanded leaves and the highest leaf appearance rate (LAR, leaves day(-1)) and leaf elongation rate (LER, cm day(-1)) were observed under eT. Leaf area and leaf biomass were higher in the eT and eC+eT treatments. The higher LER and LAR without significant differences in the number of senescent leaves could explain why tillers had higher foliage area and leaf biomass in the eT treatment. The eC treatment had the lowest LER and the fewest expanded and green leaves, similar to Control. The inhibitory effect of eC on foliage development in winter was indicated by the fewer green, expanded, and expanding leaves under eC+eT than eT. The stimulatory and inhibitory effects of the eT and eC treatments, respectively, on foliage raised and lowered, respectively, the foliar nitrogen concentration. The inhibition of foliage by eC was confirmed by the eC treatment having the lowest leaf/stem biomass ratio and by the change in leaf biomass-area relationships from linear or exponential growth to rectangular hyperbolic growth under eC. Besides, eC+eT had a synergist effect, speeding up leaf maturation. Therefore, with sufficient water and nutrients in winter, the inhibitory effect of elevated CO2 on foliage could be partially offset by elevated temperatures and relatively high P. maximum foliage production could be achieved under future climatic change.

  19. Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Molinos, Jorge; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Schoeman, David S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Burrows, Michael T.

    2016-01-01

    Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management but remains a critical knowledge gap. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming.

  20. The Future of Air Conditioning for Buildings - Executive Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goetzler, William [Navigant Consulting Inc., Burlington, MA (United States); Guernsey, Matt [Navigant Consulting Inc., Burlington, MA (United States); Young, J. [Navigant Consulting Inc., Burlington, MA (United States); Fuhrman, J. [Navigant Consulting Inc., Burlington, MA (United States); Abdelaziz, Omar [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-07-01

    The Building Technologies Office (BTO), within the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, works with researchers and industry to develop and deploy technologies that can substantially reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in residential and commercial buildings. Air conditioning (A/C) systems in buildings contribute to GHG emissions both directly through refrigerant emissions, as well as indirectly through fossil fuel combustion for power generation. BTO promotes pre-competitive research and development (R&D) on next-generation HVAC technologies that support the phase down of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production and consumption, as well as cost-effective energy efficiency improvements. Over the past several decades, product costs and lifecycle cooling costs have declined substantially in many global markets due to improved, higher-volume manufacturing and higher energy efficiency driven by R&D investments and efficiency policies including minimum efficiency standards and labeling programs.1 This report characterizes the current landscape and trends in the global A/C market, including discussion of both direct and indirect climate impacts, and potential global warming impacts from growing global A/C usage. The report also documents solutions that can help achieve international goals for energy efficiency and GHG emissions reductions. The solutions include pathways related to low-global warming potential2 (GWP) refrigerants, energy efficiency innovations, long-term R&D initiatives, and regulatory actions. DOE provides, with this report, a fact-based vision for the future of A/C use around the world. DOE intends for this vision to reflect a broad and balanced aggregation of perspectives. DOE brings together this content in an effort to support dialogue within the international community and help keep key facts and objectives at the forefront among the many important discussions.

  1. Analysis of Potential Future Climate and Climate Extremes in the Brazos Headwaters Basin, Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ripendra Awal

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Texas’ fast-growing economy and population, coupled with cycles of droughts due to climate change, are creating an insatiable demand for water and an increasing need to understand the potential impacts of future climates and climate extremes on the state’s water resources. The objective of this study was to determine potential future climates and climate extremes; and to assess spatial and temporal changes in precipitation (Prec, and minimum and maximum temperature (Tmin and Tmax, respectively, in the Brazos Headwaters Basin under three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1 for three future periods: 2020s (2011–2030, 2055s (2046–2065, and 2090s (2080–2099. Daily gridded climate data obtained from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR were used to downscale outputs from 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs using the Long Ashton Research Station–Weather Generator (LARS-WG model. Results indicate that basin average Tmin and Tmax will increase; however, annual precipitation will decrease for all periods. Annual precipitation will decrease by up to 5.2% and 6.8% in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. However, in some locations in the basin, up to a 14% decrease in precipitation is projected in the 2090s under the A2 (high emissions scenario. Overall, the northwestern and southern part of the Brazos Headwaters Basin will experience greater decreases in precipitation. Moreover, precipitation indices of the number of wet days (prec ≥ 5 mm and heavy precipitation days (prec ≥ 10 mm are projected to slightly decrease for all future periods. On the other hand, Tmin and Tmax will increase by 2 and 3 °C on average in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. Mostly, projected increases in Tmin and Tmax will be in the upper range in the southern and southeastern part of the basin. Temperature indices of frost (Tmin < 0 °C and ice days (Tmax < 0 °C are projected to decrease, while tropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C and summer days (Tmax

  2. Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases, the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time-span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

  3. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  4. An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

    2016-12-01

    The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the

  5. Food Security Under Shifting Economic, Demographic, and Climatic Conditions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, R. L.

    2013-12-01

    Global demand for food, feed, and fuel will continue to rise in a more populous and affluent world. Meeting this demand in the future will become increasingly challenging with global climate change; when production shocks stemming from climate variability are added to the new mean climate state, food markets could become more volatile. This talk will focus on the interacting market effects of demand and supply for major food commodities, with an eye on climate-related supply trends and shocks. Lessons from historical patterns of climate variability (e.g., ENSO and its global teleconnections) will be used to infer potential food security outcomes in the event of abrupt changes in the mean climate state. Domestic food and trade policy responses to crop output and price volatility in key producing and consuming nations, such as export bans and import tariffs, will be discussed as a potentially major destabilizing force, underscoring the important influence of uncertainty in achieving--or failing to achieve--food security.

  6. Making sense of climate risk information: The case of future indoor climate risks in Swedish churches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustaf Leijonhufvud

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Organizations and institutions managing built heritage have to make use of increasingly detailed, elaborate and complex climate change impact assessments. It is a challenge to determine how, when and by whom climate predictions should be translated into risk estimates usable for decision-making. In this paper results from the Climate for Culture project are used to study how heritage decision-makers interpret future indoor climate-related risks to Swedish churches. Different sets of risk maps were presented to ten engineers, ten building conservators and five experts on indoor climate related risks. Interviews were used to understand how the interviewees made sense of the presented information and if they associated it with a perceived need for adaptation. The results show that the risks were interpreted and assessed largely dependent on their pre-understanding and familiarity with the individual risks. The magnitude of change and the lack of uncertainty estimates were subordinate to the overall impression of the information as being credible and salient. The major conclusion is that the dissemination of risk information, also from projects which at the outset have aimed at producing knowledge relevant for end-users, should be both customized and tested in collaborative efforts by stakeholders and scientists.

  7. Water quality under increased biofuel production and future climate change and uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demissie, Y. K.; Yan, E.

    2015-12-01

    Over the past decade, biofuel has emerged as an important renewable energy source to supplement gasoline and reduce the associated greenhouse gas emission. Many countries, for instant, have adopted biofuel production goals to blend 10% or more of gasoline with biofuels within 10 to 20 years. However, meeting these goals requires sustainable production of biofuel feedstock which can be challenging under future change in climate and extreme weather conditions, as well as the likely impacts of biofuel feedstock production on water quality and availability. To understand this interrelationship and the combined effects of increased biofuel production and climate change on regional and local water resources, we have performed watershed hydrology and water quality analyses for the Ohio River Basin. The basin is one of the major biofuel feedstock producing region in the United States, which also currently contributes about half of the flow and one third of phosphorus and nitrogen loadings to the Mississippi River that eventually flows to the Gulf of Mexico. The analyses integrate future scenarios and climate change and biofuel development through various mixes of landuse and agricultural management changes and examine their potential impacts on regional and local hydrology, water quality, soil erosion, and agriculture productivity. The results of the study are expected to provide much needed insight about the sustainability of large-scale biofuel feedstock production under the future climate change and uncertainty, and helps to further optimize the feedstock production taking into consideration the water-use efficiency.

  8. Characterizing drought stress and trait influence on maize yield under current and future conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Matthew T; Tardieu, François; Dong, Zhanshan; Messina, Carlos D; Hammer, Graeme L

    2014-03-01

    Global climate change is predicted to increase temperatures, alter geographical patterns of rainfall and increase the frequency of extreme climatic events. Such changes are likely to alter the timing and magnitude of drought stresses experienced by crops. This study used new developments in the classification of crop water stress to first characterize the typology and frequency of drought-stress patterns experienced by European maize crops and their associated distributions of grain yield, and second determine the influence of the breeding traits anthesis-silking synchrony, maturity and kernel number on yield in different drought-stress scenarios, under current and future climates. Under historical conditions, a low-stress scenario occurred most frequently (ca. 40%), and three other stress types exposing crops to late-season stresses each occurred in ca. 20% of cases. A key revelation shown was that the four patterns will also be the most dominant stress patterns under 2050 conditions. Future frequencies of low drought stress were reduced by ca. 15%, and those of severe water deficit during grain filling increased from 18% to 25%. Despite this, effects of elevated CO2 on crop growth moderated detrimental effects of climate change on yield. Increasing anthesis-silking synchrony had the greatest effect on yield in low drought-stress seasonal patterns, whereas earlier maturity had the greatest effect in crops exposed to severe early-terminal drought stress. Segregating drought-stress patterns into key groups allowed greater insight into the effects of trait perturbation on crop yield under different weather conditions. We demonstrate that for crops exposed to the same drought-stress pattern, trait perturbation under current climates will have a similar impact on yield as that expected in future, even though the frequencies of severe drought stress will increase in future. These results have important ramifications for breeding of maize and have implications for

  9. Unusual climatic conditions and infectious diseases: observations made by Hippocrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falagas, Matthew E; Bliziotis, Ioannis A; Kosmidis, John; Daikos, George K

    2010-12-01

    About 2500 years ago, Hippocrates made noteworthy observations about the influence of climate on public health. He believed that people living in cities with different climate may suffer from different diseases. Hippocrates also observed that abrupt climatic changes or unusual weather conditions affect public health, especially the incidence and severity of various infectious diseases, including gastrointestinal infections, tuberculosis, and central nervous system infections. We believe that Hippocrates' scientific observations are great early historic examples that stress to modern infectious diseases researchers and clinicians the need to study intensively the effect of the occurring global climate changes to infectious diseases in order to help in the prevention of possible epidemics of infections. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  10. Changing Energy Requirements in the Mediterranean Under Changing Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Demosthenous

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of climate change on energy requirements in the Mediterranean. Energy requirements, especially for space heating and cooling, are closely linked to several weather variables, mainly air temperature. The analysis is based on daily temperature outputs from several regional climate models run at a resolution of 25 km × 25 km in the framework of EU project ENSEMBLES using the A1B emissions scenario. The impacts of changes in temperature on energy requirements are investigated using the concept of degree days, defined as the difference of mean air temperature from a base temperature. Base temperature should be chosen to coincide with the minimum energy consumption. In this way, changes in heating and cooling requirements between the reference and the future period are calculated and areas about to undergo large changes identified. These changes are calculated between a 30-year reference period 1961–1990 and a near future period 2021–2050 taking the ensemble mean of all regional climate models. The near-term future has been chosen instead of the frequently used end-of-the-century period to assist policy makers in their planning. In general, a decrease in energy requirements is projected under future milder winters and an increase under hotter summers.

  11. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David; Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko; Rhen, Ingvar

    2010-12-01

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  12. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different climate conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Forsmark site during temperate conditions; i.e. from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 12,000 AD. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then in an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional', make use of continuous porous medium (CPM), equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) and discrete fracture network (DFN) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  13. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  14. "Days of future passed" - climate change and carbon cycle history (Jean Baptiste Lamarck Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissert, Helmut

    2013-04-01

    With the beginning of the fossil fuel age in the 19th century mankind has become an important geological agent on a global scale. For the first time in human history action of man has an impact on global biogeochemical cycles. Increasing CO2 concentrations will result in a perturbation of global carbon cycling coupled with climate change. Investigations of past changes in carbon cycling and in climate will improve our predictions of future climate. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will drive climate into a mode of operation, which may resemble climate conditions in the deep geological past. Pliocene climate will give insight into 400ppm world with higher global sea level than today. Doubling of pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 levels will shift the climate system into a state resembling greenhouse climate in the Early Cenozoic or even in the Cretaceous. Carbon isotope geochemistry serves as tool for tracing the pathway of the carbon cycle through geological time. Globally registered negative C-isotope anomalies in the C-isotope record are interpreted as signatures of rapid addition (103 to a few 104 years) of CO2 to the ocean-atmosphere system. Positive C-isotope excursions following negative spikes record the slow post-perturbation recovery of the biosphere at time scales of 105 to 106 years. Duration of C-cycle perturbations in earth history cannot be directly compared with rapid perturbation characterizing the Anthropocene. However, the investigation of greenhouse pulses in the geological past provides insight into different climate states, it allows to identify tipping points in past climate systems and it offers the opportunity to learn about response reactions of the biosphere to rapid changes in global carbon cycling. Sudden injection of massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is recorded in C-isotope record of the Early Cretaceous. The Aptian carbon cycle perturbation triggered changes in temperature and in global hydrological cycling

  15. Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2011-01-01

    1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics

  16. Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system: from past to future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arneth, A.; Harrison, S. P.; Zaehle, S.; Tsigaridis, K; Menon, S; Bartlein, P.J.; Feichter, J; Korhola, A; Kulmala, M; O' Donnell, D; Schurgers, G; Sorvari, S; Vesala, T

    2010-01-05

    The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the regulation of atmospheric composition, and hence climate, through multiple interlinked biogeochemical cycles (BGC). Ice-core and other palaeoenvironmental records show a fast response of vegetation cover and exchanges with the atmosphere to past climate change, although the phasing of these responses reflects spatial patterning and complex interactions between individual biospheric feedbacks. Modern observations show a similar responsiveness of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles to anthropogenically-forced climate changes and air pollution, with equally complex feedbacks. For future conditions, although carbon cycle-climate interactions have been a major focus, other BGC feedbacks could be as important in modulating climate changes. The additional radiative forcing from terrestrial BGC feedbacks other than those conventionally attributed to the carbon cycle is in the range of 0.6 to 1.6 Wm{sup -2}; all taken together we estimate a possible maximum of around 3 Wm{sup -2} towards the end of the 21st century. There are large uncertainties associated with these estimates but, given that the majority of BGC feedbacks result in a positive forcing because of the fundamental link between metabolic stimulation and increasing temperature, improved quantification of these feedbacks and their incorporation in earth system models is necessary in order to develop coherent plans to manage ecosystems for climate mitigation.

  17. Comparison of Water Flows in Four European Lagoon Catchments under a Set of Future Climate Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelia Hesse

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is supposed to remarkably affect the water resources of coastal lagoons as they are highly vulnerable to changes occurring at their catchment and/or ocean or sea boundaries. Probable impacts of projected climate changes on catchment hydrology and freshwater input were assessed using the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model for the drainage areas of four European lagoons: Ria de Aveiro (Portugal, Mar Menor (Spain, Tyligulskyi Liman (Ukraine and Vistula Lagoon (Poland/Russia under a set of 15 climate scenarios covering the time period until the year 2100. Climate change signals for all regions show continuously increasing trends in temperature, but various trends in precipitation. Precipitation is projected to decrease in two catchments on the Iberian Peninsula and increase in the Baltic region catchment, and does not show a clear trend in the catchment located near the Black Sea. The average projected changes in freshwater inputs reflect these changes in climate conditions, but often show variability between the scenarios, in future periods, and within the catchments. According to the individual degrees of water management influences in the four drainage basins, the climate sensitivity of river inflows is differently pronounced in each.

  18. Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M.; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

  19. Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jason L; Weber, Jennifer J; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F; Hickerson, Michael J; Franks, Steven J; Carnaval, Ana C

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

  20. Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

    2018-02-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

  1. a New Framework for Characterising Simulated Droughts for Future Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, A.; Rashid, M.; Johnson, F.

    2017-12-01

    Significant attention has been focussed on metrics for quantifying drought. Lesser attention has been given to the unsuitability of current metrics in quantifying drought in a changing climate due to the clear non-stationarity in potential and actual evapotranspiration well into the future (Asadi-Zarch et al, 2015). This talk presents a new basis for simulating drought designed specifically for use with climate model simulations. Given the known uncertainty of climate model rainfall simulations, along with their inability to represent low-frequency variability attributes, the approach here adopts a predictive model for drought using selected atmospheric indicators. This model is based on a wavelet decomposition of relevant atmospheric predictors to filter out less relevant frequencies and formulate a better characterisation of the drought metric chosen as response. Once ascertained using observed precipication and associated atmospheric variables, these can be formulated from GCM simulations using a multivariate bias correction tool (Mehrotra and Sharma, 2016) that accounts for low-frequency variability, and a regression tool that accounts for nonlinear dependence (Sharma and Mehrotra, 2014). Use of only the relevant frequencies, as well as the corrected representation of cross-variable dependence, allows greater accuracy in characterising observed drought, from GCM simulations. Using simulations from a range of GCMs across Australia, we show here that this new method offers considerable advantages in representing drought compared to traditionally followed alternatives that rely on modelled rainfall instead. Reference:Asadi Zarch, M. A., B. Sivakumar, and A. Sharma (2015), Droughts in a warming climate: A global assessment of Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Reconnaissance drought index (RDI), Journal of Hydrology, 526, 183-195. Mehrotra, R., and A. Sharma (2016), A Multivariate Quantile-Matching Bias Correction Approach with Auto- and Cross

  2. Spatial allocation of future landscape patterns for biomass and alleviation of hydrologic impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ssegane, H.; Negri, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    Current and future demand for food, feed, fiber, and energy require novel approaches to land management, which demands that multifunctional landscapes are created to integrate various ecosystem functions into a sustainable land use. Concurrently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase of 2 to 4°C over the next 100 years above the preindustrial baseline, beginning as early as 2016 to 2035 over all seasons in the North America. This climate change is projected to further strain water resources currently stressed by anthropogenic activities. Therefore, placement of bioenergy crops on strategically selected sub-field areas in an agricultural landscape has the potential to increase the environmental and economic sustainability if location and choice of the crops result in minimal disruption of current food production systems and therefore cause minimal indirect land use change. This study identified sub-field marginal areas in an agricultural watershed using soil-based environmental sustainability criteria and a crop productivity index. Future landscape patterns (FLPs) were developed by allocating bioenergy crops (switchgrass: Panicum virgatum or shrub willows: Salix spp.) to these marginal areas (20% of the watershed). SWAT hydrologic model and dynamically downscaled climatic projection were used to asses impact of climate change on extreme flow conditions, total annual production of commodity and bioenergy crops, and water quality under current and future landscape patterns for the mid-21st century (2045-2055) and late 21st century (2085-2095) climatic projections. The frequency of flood and drought conditions was projected to increase while the corresponding durations to decrease. Sediment yields were projected to increase by 85% to 170% while FLPs would mitigate this increase by 26% to 32%.

  3. Crop connectivity under climate change: future environmental and geographic risks of potato late blight in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skelsey, Peter; Cooke, David E L; Lynott, James S; Lees, Alison K

    2016-11-01

    The impact of climate change on dispersal processes is largely ignored in risk assessments for crop diseases, as inoculum is generally assumed to be ubiquitous and nonlimiting. We suggest that consideration of the impact of climate change on the connectivity of crops for inoculum transmission may provide additional explanatory and predictive power in disease risk assessments, leading to improved recommendations for agricultural adaptation to climate change. In this study, a crop-growth model was combined with aerobiological models and a newly developed infection risk model to provide a framework for quantifying the impact of future climates on the risk of disease occurrence and spread. The integrated model uses standard meteorological variables and can be easily adapted to various crop pathosystems characterized by airborne inoculum. In a case study, the framework was used with data defining the spatial distribution of potato crops in Scotland and spatially coherent, probabilistic climate change data to project the future connectivity of crop distributions for Phytophthora infestans (causal agent of potato late blight) inoculum and the subsequent risk of infection. Projections and control recommendations are provided for multiple combinations of potato cultivar and CO 2 emissions scenario, and temporal and spatial averaging schemes. Overall, we found that relative to current climatic conditions, the risk of late blight will increase in Scotland during the first half of the potato growing season and decrease during the second half. To guide adaptation strategies, we also investigated the potential impact of climate change-driven shifts in the cropping season. Advancing the start of the potato growing season by 1 month proved to be an effective strategy from both an agronomic and late blight management perspective. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  5. Conditions for a market uptake of climate services for adaptation in France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romain Cavelier

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This perspective paper reports the results of a collaborative survey of French research institutes concerned with environmental issues, which examined the potential for a market uptake of climate services for adaptation in France. The study is based on a review of existing reports on the market of climate services, and on interviews of 68 climate service providers and users in public and private organizations. Although the study does not allow to provide quantified estimations regarding the present and future size of the market, its results offer new perspectives with implications extending far beyond the sole case of France: first, while the market is still in its infancy, significant opportunities exist in sectors such as flooding risks, and, to a slightly lesser extent, hydro and nuclear energy and viticulture. In addition, the study identifies critical conditions for the uptake in climate services: (1 a coordinated delivery of data, information, expertise and training by public research institutes concerned with climate change and its impacts; (2 the inclusion of adaptation in the regulation and in public and private tenders. Finally, (3 uncertainties in climate projections appear as a major barrier to the uptake of climate services. However, ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction as planned by the COP-21 Paris Agreement contribute to reducing this uncertainties by allowing users to select a subset of climate change projections, avoiding those for which adaptation is most problematic.

  6. Improvement of greenhouse design and climate control in mediterranean conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tuzel, Yuksel; Zwart, de Feije; Sapounas, A.; Hemming, Silke; Stanghellini, Cecilia

    2017-01-01

    The Mediterranean Region is one of the most important areas of the world in terms of protected cultivation. Turkey, with its increasing greenhouse area, is one of the representative countries of the region. Thanks to the mild winter climatic conditions, cultivation of vegetables under simple

  7. Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

    2000-02-14

    The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

  8. Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Agneta; Meier, H E Markus; Ripszam, Matyas; Rowe, Owen; Wikner, Johan; Haglund, Peter; Eilola, Kari; Legrand, Catherine; Figueroa, Daniela; Paczkowska, Joanna; Lindehoff, Elin; Tysklind, Mats; Elmgren, Ragnar

    2015-06-01

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 °C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

  9. Historical and future trends in ocean climate and biogeochemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doney, Scott C.; Bopp, Laurent; Long, Matthew C.

    2014-01-01

    Changing atmospheric composition due to human activities, primarily carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuel burning, is already impacting ocean circulation, biogeochemistry, and ecology, and model projections indicate that observed trends will continue or even accelerate over this century. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 alters Earth's radiative balance, leading to global-scale warming and climate change. The ocean stores the majority of resulting anomalous heat, which in turn drives other physical, chemical, and biological impacts. Sea surface warming and increased ocean vertical stratification are projected to reduce global-integrated primary production and export flux as well as to lower subsurface dissolved oxygen concentrations. Upper trophic levels will be affected both directly by warming and indirectly from changes in productivity and expanding low oxygen zones. The ocean also absorbs roughly one-quarter of present-day anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. The resulting changes in seawater chemistry, termed ocean acidification, include declining pH and saturation state for calcium carbon minerals that may have widespread impacts on many marine organisms. Climate warming will likely slow ocean CO 2 uptake but is not expected to significantly reduce upper ocean acidification. Improving the accuracy of future model projections requires better observational constraints on current rates of ocean change and a better understanding of the mechanisms controlling key physical and biogeochemical processes. (authors)

  10. Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B. J.; van Minnen, J. G.

    2012-04-01

    Ecosystem responses to a changing climate and human-induced climate forcings (e.g. deforestation) might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial climate response. Feedbacks may include the biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical feedbacks (e.g. albedo and hydrological cycle). Here, we first review the most important feedbacks and put them into the context of a conceptual framework, including the major processes and interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climate. We explore potential regional feedbacks in four hot spots with pronounced potential changes in land-use/management and local climate: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, the relevant human-induced climate forcings and feedbacks were identified based on published literature. When evapotranspiration is limited by a soil water deficit, heat waves in Europe are amplified (positive soil moisture-temperature feedback). Drought events in the Amazon lead to further rainfall reduction when water recycling processes are affected (positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback). In SSA, the adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems can modulate the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback. In contrast, future water shortage in South and Southeast Asia can turn the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback into a positive one. Further research including advanced modeling strategies is needed to isolate the dominant processes affecting the strength and sign of the feedbacks. In addition, the socio-economic dimension needs to be considered in the ecosystems-climate system to include the essential role of human decisions on land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). In this context, enhanced integration between Earth System (ES) and Integrated Assessment (IA) modeling communities is strongly recommended.

  11. Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutherford, William A.; Painter, Thomas H.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.; Flagg, Cody B.; Reed, Sasha C.

    2017-01-01

    Drylands represent the planet’s largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness—changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

  12. Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutherford, William A.; Painter, Thomas H.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.; Flagg, Cody; Reed, Sasha C.

    2017-03-01

    Drylands represent the planet’s largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness—changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

  13. Pore Water Arsenic Dynamics in Rice Paddies Under Projected Future Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plaganas, M.; Wang, T.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.

    2016-12-01

    Rice is one of the staple crops in the world, with 50% of the global population eating rice daily. Many rice-producing regions of the world are irrigated with groundwater contaminated with arsenic (As), and in particular South and Southeast Asia, where geogenic As is leached into the groundwater. Use of groundwater pervasively high in As leads to subsequent accumulation in paddy soils. Arsenic, a toxic metalloid, also decreases rice productivity and further jeopardizes food security. Hence, rice agriculture is concerned with its productivity in a climate change impacted future and the particular impacts of arsenic on yields. However, past studies do not address the prevalence of As in paddy soils or its fate in the rhizosphere and ultimate impact on the plant. The objective of our study was to determine changes in pore water As dynamics in the rhizosphere of rice plants grown on As-contaminated paddy soil under climate conditions projected for the end of the century. In order to address this objective, we designed greenhouse chambers with today's climate and projected climate conditions for the year 2100, specifically 5°C increase in temperature and doubled concentration of atmospheric CO2. We hypothesize that the effects of climate change with these conditions will increase the mobility of As in the rhizosphere, and thus, decrease rice growth in As-bearing paddies more than, so far, expected. We examined pore water geochemistry including pH and As concentrations, and correlate that to the height of the plants. Furthermore, the dynamics of other elements in the pore water such as carbon, iron, sulfur, manganese, and silica are further evaluated for their effects on rice growth. Arsenic will have an impact on rice production and conditions induced by future climatic conditions need to be considered for food security. Considering that climate change will decrease the global agricultural output, we should urgently consider adapting our agricultural practices to aid

  14. Retrospect and prospect: advances and future strategies in climate research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    A brief review of the progress in climate research and a prospect on its further development in the 21st century is presented. Some key findings including the concept of climate system, the discovery of climatic multi-equilibrium and abrupt climate changes, and the recognition of human activities as an important force of climate change made breakthroughs in climatology possible during last few decades. The adaptation to climatic and global change emerged as a new aspect of climatic research during the 1990s. Climate research will break through in the observation of the global system, in the analysis of mass data, in the deepening of research on the mechanism of climatic change, and in the improvement of models. In the applied fields of climate research, there will be substantial progress in the research on adaptation to global change and sustainable development, on orderly human activities, and climate modification.

  15. Using the adaptive cycle in climate-risk insurance to design resilient futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cremades, R.; Surminski, S.; Máñez Costa, M.; Hudson, P.; Shrivastava, P.; Gascoigne, J.

    2018-01-01

    Assessing the dynamics of resilience could help insurers and governments reduce the costs of climate-risk insurance schemes and secure future insurability in the face of an increase in extreme hydro-meteorological events related to climate change.

  16. Pedagogical Conditions of Future Philologists’ Research Culture Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Trufkina

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem of - the pedagogical conditions- and it discloses the give phenomenon. In the following work there are outlined three kinds of pedagogical conditions that determine the formation of the future philologist's research culture and it also gives their detailed analysis. The urgency of the paper is determined by progressive methods of contemporary higher education. The aim of the work is to analyse pedagogical conditions that contribute to the research culture formation. The outlook of our investigations is connected with the detailed analysis of the Ŗresearch cultureŗ phenomenon, its components and pedagogical conditions contributing to its development.

  17. Radiative Forcing in the ACCMIP Historical and Future Climate Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, Drew Todd; Lamarque, J.-F.; Schulz, M.; Flanner, M.; Jiao, C.; Chin, M.; Young, P. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Rotstayn, L.; Mahowald, N.; hide

    2013-01-01

    A primary goal of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model IntercomparisonProject (ACCMIP) was to characterize the short-lived drivers of preindustrial to 2100climate change in the current generation of climate models. Here we evaluate historicaland 5 future radiative forcing in the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of whichalso participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).The models generally reproduce present-day climatological total aerosol opticaldepth (AOD) relatively well. components to this total, however, and most appear to underestimate AOD over East10 Asia. The models generally capture 1980-2000 AOD trends fairly well, though theyunderpredict AOD increases over the YellowEastern Sea. They appear to strongly underestimate absorbing AOD, especially in East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, SouthAmerica and Southern Hemisphere Africa.We examined both the conventional direct radiative forcing at the tropopause (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (adjusted forcing AF, including direct andindirect effects). The models calculated all aerosol all-sky 1850 to 2000 global meanannual average RF ranges from 0.06 to 0.49 W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.26 W m(sup -2) and a median of 0.27 W m(sup -2. Adjusting for missing aerosol components in some modelsbrings the range to 0.12 to 0.62W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.39W m(sup -2). Screen20ing the models based on their ability to capture spatial patterns and magnitudes ofAOD and AOD trends yields a quality-controlled mean of 0.42W m(sup -2) and range of0.33 to 0.50 W m(sup -2) (accounting for missing components). The CMIP5 subset of ACCMIPmodels spans 0.06 to 0.49W m(sup -2), suggesting some CMIP5 simulations likelyhave too little aerosol RF. A substantial, but not well quantified, contribution to histori25cal aerosol RF may come from climate feedbacks (35 to 58). The mean aerosol AF during this period is 1.12W m(sup -2) (median value 1.16W m(sup -2), range 0.72 to1.44W m

  18. Performance of desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy under different climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Agouz, S.A.; Kabeel, A.E.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The performance of the hybrid air conditioning system is studied. • The influence of important operating parameters are estimated. • The ventilation, makeup and mix cycles are investigated at different climate. • The highest COP of the hybrid air conditioning system is 1.03. • The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates. - Abstract: Energy saving still and continue a major seek in our life, due to the continuous increase in energy consumptions. So, a desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy is conducted in the current study. The thermal analysis of air conditioning system with its different components desiccant wheel, solar collector, heat exchanger, ground heat exchanger and water spray evaporative cooler is presented. Three different air conditioning cycles are simulated in the current study for different zones like: hot-dry zone, warm-dry zone, hot-humid zone and the warm-humid zone. The results show that the desiccant air conditioning system successfully provides a better thermal comfort condition in different climates. This hybrid system significantly decreases the supplied air temperature from 12.7 to 21.7 °C at different climate zones. When ω in , air and T Reg increasing, COP decreases and the ventilation cycle provides the better COP. The highest COP value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 1.03 while the lowest value is about 0.15. The SHR of makeup cycle is higher than that ventilation cycle at warm and hot-humid zone and vice versa at warm and hot-dry zone. The highest SHR value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 0.99 while the lowest value is about 0.2. The T sup,air , ω sup,air , COP and SHR isolines may easily be used for pre-evaluating of various cooling cycles in different climates. The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates

  19. Environmental risk of climate change and groundwater abstraction on stream ecological conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige; Bøgh, Eva; Jensen, Niels H.

    with DAISY, a one dimensional crop model describing soil water dynamics in the root zone, and MIKE SHE, a distributed groundwater-surface water model. The relative and combined impacts on low flows, groundwater levels, and nitrate leaching are quantified and compared to assess the water resource sensitivity...... and risk to stream ecological conditions. We find low flow and annual discharge to be most impacted by scenarios of climate change, with high variation across climate models (+/- 40% change). Doubling of current groundwater abstraction rates reduces annual discharge by approximately 20%, with higher...... flows and groundwater levels are of interest, as they relate to aquatic habitat and nitrate leaching, respectively. This study evaluates the risk to stream ecological conditions for a lowland Danish catchment under multiple scenarios of climate change and groundwater abstraction. Projections of future...

  20. Climate change and the future of natural disturbances in the central hardwood region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Virginia H [ORNL; Hughes, M. Joseph [University of Tennessee (UT); Hayes, Daniel J [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    The spatial patterns and ecological processes of the southeastern upland hardwood forests have evolved to reflect past climatic conditions and natural disturbance regimes. Changes in climate can lead to disturbances that exceed their natural range of variation, and the impacts of these changes will depend on the vulnerability or resiliency of these ecosystems. Global Circulation Models generally project annual increases in temperature across the southeastern United States over the coming decades, but changes in precipitation are less consistent. Even more unclear is how climate change might affect future trends in the severity and frequency of natural disturbances, such as severe storms, fires, droughts, floods, and insect outbreaks. Here, we use a time-series satellite data record to map the spatial pattern and severity of broad classes of natural disturbances the southeast region. The data derived from this map allow analysis of regional-scale trends in natural and anthropogenic disturbances in the region over the last three decades. Throughout the region, between 5% and 25% of forest land is affected by some sort of disturbance each year since 1985. The time series reveals periodic droughts that themselves are widespread and of low severity but are associated with more localized, high-severity disturbances such as fire and insect outbreaks. The map also reveals extensive anthropogenic disturbance across the region in the form of forest conversion related to resource extraction and urban and residential development. We discuss how changes in climate and disturbance regimes might affect southeastern forests in the future via altering the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of these ecosystems. Changes in climate are highly likely to expose southeastern forests to more frequent and severe disturbances, but ultimately how vulnerable or resilient southeastern forests are to these changes will depend on their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to these novel

  1. Development of Future Rule Curves for Multipurpose Reservoir Operation Using Conditional Genetic and Tabu Search Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anongrit Kangrang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Optimal rule curves are necessary guidelines in the reservoir operation that have been used to assess performance of any reservoir to satisfy water supply, irrigation, industrial, hydropower, and environmental conservation requirements. This study applied the conditional genetic algorithm (CGA and the conditional tabu search algorithm (CTSA technique to connect with the reservoir simulation model in order to search optimal reservoir rule curves. The Ubolrat Reservoir located in the northeast region of Thailand was an illustrative application including historic monthly inflow, future inflow generated by the SWAT hydrological model using 50-year future climate data from the PRECIS regional climate model in case of B2 emission scenario by IPCC SRES, water demand, hydrologic data, and physical reservoir data. The future and synthetic inflow data of reservoirs were used to simulate reservoir system for evaluating water situation. The situations of water shortage and excess water were shown in terms of frequency magnitude and duration. The results have shown that the optimal rule curves from CGA and CTSA connected with the simulation model can mitigate drought and flood situations than the existing rule curves. The optimal future rule curves were more suitable for future situations than the other rule curves.

  2. Conditional and future tense impairment in non-fluent aphasia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rofes, Adria; Bastiaanse, Roelien; Martinez-Ferreiro, Silvia

    2014-01-01

    Background: Morphological errors of tense and agreement are salient in agrammatic aphasia. The PADILIH predicts impairments in discourse linking that translate to greater difficulties in referring to a past event time than to a future or a present event time. In Catalan, the Periphrastic conditional

  3. Using Extreme Tropical Precipitation Statistics to Constrain Future Climate States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igel, M.; Biello, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical precipitation is characterized by a rapid growth in mean intensity as the column humidity increases. This behavior is examined in both a cloud resolving model and with high-resolution observations of precipitation and column humidity from CloudSat and AIRS, respectively. The model and the observations exhibit remarkable consistency and suggest a new paradigm for extreme precipitation. We show that the total precipitation can be decomposed into a product of contributions from a mean intensity, a probability of precipitation, and a global PDF of column humidity values. We use the modeling and observational results to suggest simple, analytic forms for each of these functions. The analytic representations are then used to construct a simple expression for the global accumulated precipitation as a function of the parameters of each of the component functions. As the climate warms, extreme precipitation intensity and global precipitation are expected to increase, though at different rates. When these predictions are incorporated into the new analytic expression for total precipitation, predictions for changes due to global warming to the probability of precipitation and the PDF of column humidity can be made. We show that strong constraints can be imposed on the future shape of the PDF of column humidity but that only weak constraints can be set on the probability of precipitation. These are largely imposed by the intensification of extreme precipitation. This result suggests that understanding precisely how extreme precipitation responds to climate warming is critical to predicting other impactful properties of global hydrology. The new framework can also be used to confirm and discount existing theories for shifting precipitation.

  4. Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helge Walentowski

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs using information on species’ climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea, whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.

  5. Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Lucas W.; Gertler, Paul J.

    2015-01-01

    As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change. PMID:25918391

  6. Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Lucas W; Gertler, Paul J

    2015-05-12

    As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change.

  7. Ceramic production during changing environmental/climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oestreich, Daniela B.; Glasmacher, Ulrich A.

    2015-04-01

    Ceramics, with regard to their status as largely everlasting everyday object as well as on the basis of their chronological sensitivity, reflect despite their simplicity the technological level of a culture and therefore also, directly or indirectly, the adaptability of a culture with respect to environmental and/or climatic changes. For that reason the question arises, if it is possible to identify changes in production techniques and raw material sources for ceramic production, as a response to environmental change, e.g. climate change. This paper will present results of a research about Paracas Culture (800 - 200 BC), southern Peru. Through several investigations (e.g. Schittek et al., 2014; Eitel and Mächtle, 2009) it is well known that during Paracas period changes in climate and environmental conditions take place. As a consequence, settlement patterns shifted several times through the various stages of Paracas time. Ceramics from three different sites (Jauranga, Cutamalla, Collanco) and temporal phases of the Paracas period are detailed archaeometric, geochemical and mineralogical characterized, e.g. Raman spectroscopy, XRD, and ICP-MS analyses. The aim of this research is to resolve potential differences in the chemical composition of the Paracas ceramics in space and time and to compare the data with the data sets of pre-Columbian environmental conditions. Thus influences of changing environmental conditions on human societies and their cultural conditions will be discussed. References Eitel, B. and Mächtle, B. 2009. Man and Environment in the eastern Atacama Desert (Southern Peru): Holocene climate changes and their impact on pre-Columbian cultures. In: Reindel, M. & Wagner, G. A. (eds.) New Technologies for Archaeology. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Schittek, K., Mächtle, B., Schäbitz, F., Forbriger, M., Wennrich, V., Reindel, M., and Eitel, B.. Holocene environmental changes in the highlands of the southern Peruvian Andes (14° S) and their

  8. Climate justice : three roads towards a sustainable future

    OpenAIRE

    Sundqvist, Max

    2017-01-01

    In this I will explore the ethical challenge of global climate change by analysing three accounts of how responsibility for climate change should be distributed. I explore why it is valuable to view climate change as part of a bigger ethical problem of resources, distribution and global justice. Furthermore, I will argue that a road towards change by a cosmo political theory of justice is the most reasonable option. The theme of my argumentation is that the challenge of global climate change ...

  9. Collaborative Research for Water Resource Management under Climate Change Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brundiers, K.; Garfin, G. M.; Gober, P.; Basile, G.; Bark, R. H.

    2010-12-01

    We present an ongoing project to co-produce science and policy called Collaborative Planning for Climate Change: An Integrated Approach to Water-Planning, Climate Downscaling, and Robust Decision-Making. The project responds to motivations related to dealing with sustainability challenges in research and practice: (a) state and municipal water managers seek research that addresses their planning needs; (b) the scientific literature and funding agencies call for more meaningful engagement between science and policy communities, in ways that address user needs, while advancing basic research; and (c) empirical research contributes to methods for the design and implementation of collaborative projects. To understand how climate change might impact water resources and management in the Southwest US, our project convenes local, state, and federal water management practitioners with climate-, hydrology-, policy-, and decision scientists. Three areas of research inform this collaboration: (a) the role of paleo-hydrology in water resources scenario construction; (b) the types of uncertainties that impact decision-making beyond climate and modeling uncertainty; and (c) basin-scale statistical and dynamical downscaling of climate models to generate hydrologic projections for regional water resources planning. The project engages all participants in the research process, from research design to workshops that build capacity for understanding data generation and sources of uncertainty to the discussion of water management decision contexts. A team of “science-practice translators” facilitates the collaboration between academic and professional communities. In this presentation we contextualize the challenges and opportunities of use-inspired science-policy research collaborations by contrasting the initial project design with the process of implementation. We draw from two sources to derive lessons learned: literature on collaborative research, and evaluations provided by

  10. Engineering a future for amphibians under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noreen Parks; Deanna H. Olson

    2011-01-01

    Climate variation exacerbates threats to amphibians such as disease and habitat loss. Yet, by and large existing species- and land-management plans give little if any consideration to climate impacts. Moreover, many management actions that do address emerging climate patterns have yet to be evaluated for feasibility and effectiveness. To help address these needs,...

  11. A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

    1998-01-01

    Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

  12. Future climate and wildfire: ecosystem projections of area burned in the western US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littell, J. S.; Duffy, P.; Battisti, D. S.; McKenzie, D.; Peterson, D. L.

    2010-12-01

    The area burned by fire in ecosystems of the western United States has been closely linked to climate in the paleoecological record and in the modern record. Statistical models of area burned show that the climatic controls on area burned vary with vegetation type (Littell et al. 2009). In more arid or systems (grasslands, shrublands, woodlands), antecedent climatic controls on fire were associated first with the production of fuels and secondarily with drought in the year of fire. These relationships typically manifested as wetter and sometimes cooler conditions in the seasons prior to the fire season. Area burned in forest ecosystems and some woodlands was primarily associated with drought conditions, specifically increased temperature and decreased precipitation in the year of fire and the seasons leading up to the fire season. These climatic controls indicate the role of climate in drying existing fuels. Statistical fire models trained on the late 20th century for ecoprovinces in the West would be useful for projecting area burned, at least until vegetation type conversion driven by climate and disturbance occurs. To that end, we used ~ 2.5 degree gridded future climate fields derived for a multi-GCM ensemble of 1C and 2C temperature increase forcing to develop future ecoprovince monthly and seasonal average temperature and associated precipitation and used these as predictors in statistical fire models of future projected area burned. We also conducted modeling scenarios with the ensemble temperature increase paired with historical precipitation. Most ecoprovinces had increases in area burned, with a range of ~ 67% to over 600% . Ecoprovinces that are primarily sensitive to precipitation changes exhibit smaller increases than those most sensitive to temperature (forest systems). We also developed exceedance probabilities. Some ecoprovinces show large increases in area burned but low exceedance probabilities, suggest that the area burned is concentrated more

  13. A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Normand, Signe; Randin, Christophe; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Bay, Christian; Høye, Toke T.; Kjær, Erik D.; Körner, Christian; Lischke, Heike; Maiorano, Luigi; Paulsen, Jens; Pearman, Peter B.; Psomas, Achilleas; Treier, Urs A.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2013-01-01

    Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates. PMID:23836785

  14. Future fire probability modeling with climate change data and physical chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard P. Guyette; Frank R. Thompson; Jodi Whittier; Michael C. Stambaugh; Daniel C. Dey

    2014-01-01

    Climate has a primary influence on the occurrence and rate of combustion in ecosystems with carbon-based fuels such as forests and grasslands. Society will be confronted with the effects of climate change on fire in future forests. There are, however, few quantitative appraisals of how climate will affect wildland fire in the United States. We demonstrated a method for...

  15. Future climate resources for tourism in Europe based on the daily Tourism Climatic Index

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perch-Nielsen, S.; Amelung, B.; Knutti, R.

    2010-01-01

    Climate is an important resource for many types of tourism. One of several metrics for the suitability of climate for sightseeing is Mieczkowski’s “Tourism Climatic Index” (TCI), which summarizes and combines seven climate variables. By means of the TCI, we analyse the present climate resources for

  16. Web-based access, aggregation, and visualization of future climate projections with emphasis on agricultural assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol

    2018-01-01

    Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.

  17. Development of a methodology to assess future trends in low flows at the watershed scale using solely climate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulon, Étienne; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gagnon, Patrick

    2018-02-01

    Low flow conditions are governed by short-to-medium term weather conditions or long term climate conditions. This prompts the question: given climate scenarios, is it possible to assess future extreme low flow conditions from climate data indices (CDIs)? Or should we rely on the conventional approach of using outputs of climate models as inputs to a hydrological model? Several CDIs were computed using 42 climate scenarios over the years 1961-2100 for two watersheds located in Québec, Canada. The relationship between the CDIs and hydrological data indices (HDIs; 7- and 30-day low flows for two hydrological seasons) were examined through correlation analysis to identify the indices governing low flows. Results of the Mann-Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, clearly identified trends. A partial correlation analysis allowed attributing the observed trends in HDIs to trends in specific CDIs. Furthermore, results showed that, even during the spatial validation process, the methodological framework was able to assess trends in low flow series from: (i) trends in the effective drought index (EDI) computed from rainfall plus snowmelt minus PET amounts over ten to twelve months of the hydrological snow cover season or (ii) the cumulative difference between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration over five months of the snow free season. For 80% of the climate scenarios, trends in HDIs were successfully attributed to trends in CDIs. Overall, this paper introduces an efficient methodological framework to assess future trends in low flows given climate scenarios. The outcome may prove useful to municipalities concerned with source water management under changing climate conditions.

  18. Future climate data from RCP 4.5 and occurrence of malaria in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Jaewon; Noh, Huiseong; Kim, Soojun; Singh, Vijay P; Hong, Seung Jin; Kim, Duckgil; Lee, Keonhaeng; Kang, Narae; Kim, Hung Soo

    2014-10-15

    Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001-2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future.

  19. Tolerance and potential for adaptation of a Baltic Sea rockweed under predicted climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rugiu, Luca; Manninen, Iita; Rothäusler, Eva; Jormalainen, Veijo

    2018-03-01

    Climate change is threating species' persistence worldwide. To predict species responses to climate change we need information not just on their environmental tolerance but also on its adaptive potential. We tested how the foundation species of rocky littoral habitats, Fucus vesiculosus, responds to combined hyposalinity and warming projected to the Baltic Sea by 2070-2099. We quantified responses of replicated populations originating from the entrance, central, and marginal Baltic regions. Using replicated individuals, we tested for the presence of within-population tolerance variation. Future conditions hampered growth and survival of the central and marginal populations whereas the entrance populations fared well. Further, both the among- and within-population variation in responses to climate change indicated existence of genetic variation in tolerance. Such standing genetic variation provides the raw material necessary for adaptation to a changing environment, which may eventually ensure the persistence of the species in the inner Baltic Sea. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. A simple technique for obtaining future climate data inputs for natural resource models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Those conducting impact studies using natural resource models need to be able to quickly and easily obtain downscaled future climate data from multiple models, scenarios, and timescales for multiple locations. This paper describes a method of quickly obtaining future climate data over a wide range o...

  1. Future Urban Climate Projection in A Tropical Megacity Based on Global and Regional Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

    2017-12-01

    Cities in Asian developing countries experience rapid transformation in urban morphology and energy consumption, which correspondingly affects urban climate. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) in the tropic Jakarta Greater Area was conducted. Simulation was conducted during the dry months from 2006 to 2015 and agreed well with point and satellite observation. The same technology coupled with pseudo global warming (PGW) method based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 2.6 and 8.5 was conducted to produce futuristic climate condition in 2050. Projected urban morphology and AHE in 2050s were constructed using regional urban growing model with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) among its inputs. Compact future urban configuration, based on SSP1, was coupled to RCP2.6. Unrestrained future urban configuration, based on SSP3, was coupled to RCP8.5. Results show that background warming from RCP 2.6 and 8.5 will increase background temperature by 0.55°C and 1.2°C throughout the region, respectively. Future projection of urban sprawl results to an additional 0.3°C and 0.5°C increase on average, with maximum increase of 1.1°C and 1.3°C due to urban effect for RCP2.6/compact and RCP8.5/unrestrained, respectively. Higher moisture content in urban area is indicated in the future due to higher evaporation. Change in urban roughness is likely affect slower wind velocity in urban area and sea breeze front inland penetration the future compare with current condition. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  2. Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zongci Zhao

    2011-01-01

    @@ As we know,the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities.Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study,the main objective is to analyze if the projections of fu-ture climate change by global climate models are reli-able.Several workshops have been held on this issue,such as the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections in January of 2010 (presided by the co-chairs of the IPCC WGI and WGII AR5),and the workshop of the combined global climate model group held by NCAR in June of 2010.

  3. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam E Vorsino

    Full Text Available Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75 as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1. This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  4. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  5. Operation of hydropower generation systems in the Alps under future climate and socio-economic drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    Alpine hydropower systems are an important source of renewable energy for many countries in Europe. In Switzerland, for instance, they represent the most important domestic source of renewable energy (around 55%). However, future hydropower production may be threatened by unprecedented challenges, such as a decreasing water availability, due to climate change (CC) and associated glacier retreat, and uncertain operating conditions, such as future power needs and highly fluctuating demand on the energy market. This second aspect has gained increasingly relevance since the massive introduction of solar and wind generating systems in the portfolios of many European countries. Because hydropower systems have the potential to provide backup storage of energy to compensate for fluctuations that are typical, for instance, of solar and wind generation systems, it is important to investigate how the increased demand for flexible operation, together with climate change challenge and fluctuating markets, can impact their operating policies. The Swiss Competence Center on Supply of Electricity (www.sccer-soe.ch) has been recently established to explore new potential paths for the development of future power generation systems. In this context, we develop modelling and optimization tools to design and assess new operation strategies for hydropower systems to increase their reliability, flexibility, and robustness to future operation conditions. In particular, we develop an advanced modelling framework for the integrated simulation of the operation of hydropower plants, which accounts for CC-altered streamflow regimes, new demand and market conditions, as well as new boundary conditions for operation (e.g., aquatic ecosystem conservation). The model construction consists of two primary components: a physically based and spatially distributed hydrological model, which describes the relevant hydrological processes at the basin scale, and an agent based decision model, which

  6. Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gisselle Yang Xie

    Full Text Available Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd, a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary, including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific and also separately per region (region-specific. One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas

  7. Modelling climate change impacts on stream habitat conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boegh, Eva; Conallin, John; Karthikeyan, Matheswaran

    Impact from groundwater abstraction on freshwater resources and ecosystems is an issue of sincere concern in Denmark and many other countries worldwide. In addition, climate change projections add complexity to the existing conflict between water demands to satisfy human needs and water demands...... required to conserve streams as biologically diverse and healthy ecosystems. Solutions to this intensifying conflict require a holistic approach whereby stream biota is related to their physical environment at catchment scale, as also demanded by the EU Water Framework Directive. In the present study......, climate impacts on stream ecological conditions were quantified by combining a heat and mass stream flow with a habitat suitability modelling approach. Habitat suitability indices were developed for stream velocity, water depth, water temperature and substrate. Generally, water depth was found...

  8. Projected climatic changes on drought conditions over Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Matilde; Quishpe-Vásquez, César; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

    2017-04-01

    In a context of global warming, the evapotranspiration processes will have a strong influence on drought severity. For this reason, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was computed at different timescales in order to explore the projected drought changes for the main watersheds in Spain. For that, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used in order to obtain current (1980-2010) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) climate output fields. WRF model was used over a domain that spans the Iberian Peninsula with a spatial resolution of 0.088°, and nested in the coarser 0.44° EURO-CORDEX domain, and driving by the global bias-corrected climate model output data from version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1), using two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Besides, to examine the behavior of this drought index, a comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which does not consider the evapotranspiration effects, was also performed. Additionally the relationship between the SPEI index and the soil moisture has also been analyzed. The results of this study suggest an increase in the severity and duration of drought, being larger when the SPEI index is used to define drought events. This fact confirms the relevance of taking into account the evapotranspiration processes to detect future drought events. The results also show a noticeable relationship between the SPEI and the simulated soil moisture content, which is more significant at higher timescales. Keywords: Drought, SPEI, SPI, Climatic change, Projections, WRF. Acknowledgements: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

  9. Estimating future burned areas under changing climate in the EU-Mediterranean countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amatulli, Giuseppe; Camia, Andrea; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús

    2013-04-15

    The impacts of climate change on forest fires have received increased attention in recent years at both continental and local scales. It is widely recognized that weather plays a key role in extreme fire situations. It is therefore of great interest to analyze projected changes in fire danger under climate change scenarios and to assess the consequent impacts of forest fires. In this study we estimated burned areas in the European Mediterranean (EU-Med) countries under past and future climate conditions. Historical (1985-2004) monthly burned areas in EU-Med countries were modeled by using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (CFWI). Monthly averages of the CFWI sub-indices were used as explanatory variables to estimate the monthly burned areas in each of the five most affected countries in Europe using three different modeling approaches (Multiple Linear Regression - MLR, Random Forest - RF, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines - MARS). MARS outperformed the other methods. Regression equations and significant coefficients of determination were obtained, although there were noticeable differences from country to country. Climatic conditions at the end of the 21st Century were simulated using results from the runs of the regional climate model HIRHAM in the European project PRUDENCE, considering two IPCC SRES scenarios (A2-B2). The MARS models were applied to both scenarios resulting in projected burned areas in each country and in the EU-Med region. Results showed that significant increases, 66% and 140% of the total burned area, can be expected in the EU-Med region under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Changing climatic conditions in the Upper Thames River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonovic, S.P.

    2009-01-01

    'Full text:' Many climate change impact studies have been conducted using a top-down approach. First, outputs from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are considered which are downscaled in a second step to the river basin scale using either a statistical/empirical or a dynamic approach. The local climatic signal that is obtained is then used as input into a hydrological model to assess the direct consequences in the basin. Problems related to this approach include: a high degree of uncertainty associated with GCM outputs; and an increase in uncertainty due to the downscaling approach. An original inverse approach is developed in this work in order to improve the understanding of the processes leading to hydrological hazards, including both flood and drought events. The developed approach starts with the analysis of existing guidelines and management practices in a river basin with respect to critical hydrological exposures that may lead to failure of the water resources system or parts thereof. This implies that vulnerable components of the river basin have to be identified together with the risk exposure. In the next step the critical hydrologic exposures (flood levels for example) are transformed into corresponding critical meteorological conditions (extreme precipitation events for example). These local weather scenarios are then be statistically linked to possible large-scale climate conditions that are available from the GCMs. The developed procedure allows for the assessment of the vulnerability of river basins with respect to climate forcing. It also provides a tool for identifying the spatial distribution of the vulnerability and risk. Vulnerability is here characterized by the incremental losses, expressed either quantitatively or qualitatively, due to a change in the probability and magnitude of hazard events driven by climatic forcing. Vulnerability is seen as the basis for risk mitigation measures for hydrologic extremes at the basin level. The

  11. The climate: variabilities and future evolution. Press breakfast 8 november 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciais, Ph.; Jouzel, J.; Le Treut, H.

    2000-11-01

    In the framework of CEA Press conference for the public information, this paper presents the CEA/CNRS laboratories working in the climatology domain. The main researches themes are the climate sciences, the biogeochemical cycles, the geo-markers and the climate simulation. For the simulation of the greenhouse gases effect on the climate, it is necessary to better know the past climate. One of the method is the analysis of ice samples. A presentation of the studies on the future climate simulation is proposed with information on the global climate warming and the consequences. (A.L.B.)

  12. Climatic and ecological future of the Amazon: likelihood and causes of change

    OpenAIRE

    B. Cook; N. Zeng; J.-H. Yoon

    2010-01-01

    Some recent climate modeling results suggested a possible dieback of the Amazon rainforest under future climate change, a prediction that raised considerable interest as well as controversy. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, we analyzed the output of 15 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) and a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS driven by these climate output. Our results suggest that the core of the Amazon rainforest...

  13. The Effects of Weather on Oilseed Rape (OSR) Yield in China: Future Implications of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Yaqin He; Brian J. Revell; Bofeng Leng; Zhongchao Feng

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the role of climatic factors on crop yields is essential in predicting the future impact of climate change. In order to understand the influence of climatic factors on OSR, detailed farm-level panel data from 2566 farms across 67 counties of the 6 major OSR production regions in China, from the surveys conducted by the national OSR industry project between 2008 and 2013, were used to examine the contribution of changes in selected climatic variables between 2008 and 2013 to yiel...

  14. Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blenckner, Thorsten; Llope, Marcos; Möllmann, Christian; Voss, Rudi; Quaas, Martin F.; Casini, Michele; Lindegren, Martin; Folke, Carl; Chr. Stenseth, Nils

    2015-01-01

    Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socio-economic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a case study, we show that under current temperature and salinity conditions, complete recovery of this heavily altered ecosystem will be impossible. Instead, the ecosystem regenerates towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea, even under very low exploitation pressure. Furthermore, a socio-economic assessment shows that this signal is amplified at the level of societal costs, owing to increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to approximately 120 million € per year, which equals half of today's maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines can lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change. PMID:25694626

  15. Impact of climate change on commercial sector air conditioning energy consumption in subtropical Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lam, Tony N.T.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Wong, S.L.; Lam, Joseph C.

    2010-01-01

    Past and future trend of electricity use for air conditioning in the entire commercial sector in subtropical climates using 1979-2008 measured meteorological data as well as predictions for 2009-2100 from a general circulation model (MIROC3.2-H) was investigated. Air conditioning consumption showed an increasing trend over the past 30 years from 1979 to 2008. Principal component analysis (PCA) of measured and predicted monthly mean dry-bulb temperature, wet-bulb temperature and global solar radiation was conducted to determine a new climatic index Z for 1979-2008 and future 92 years (2009-2100) based on two emissions scenarios B1 and A1B (low and medium forcing). Through regression analysis, electricity use in air conditioning for the 92-year period was estimated. For low forcing, average consumption in 2009-2038, 2039-2068 and 2069-2100 would be, respectively, 5.7%, 12.8% and 18.4% more than the 1979-2008 average, with a mean 12.5% increase for the entire 92-year period. Medium forcing showed a similar increasing trend, but 1-4% more. Standard deviations of the monthly air conditioning consumption were found to be smaller suggesting possible reduction in seasonal variations in future years.

  16. Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen, Dimity Maree; Barnett, Adrian Gerard

    2017-12-11

    The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected. We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies. We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay. Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario. We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016-2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models' potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370.

  17. Do downscaled general circulation models reliably simulate historical climatic conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2018-01-01

    The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

  18. Stratocumulus transitions in present-day and future climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Dussen, J.J.

    2015-01-01

    Clouds have a strong net cooling effect on our planet, as they reflect a large part of the incident solar radiation. To be able to make accurate forecasts of the global climate, cloudiness should therefore be correctly represented by climate models. Currently, however there are large differences in

  19. Climate Change Governance : History, future, and triple loop learning?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gupta, J.

    2016-01-01

    The international climate change regime started out very constructively, but although there has been progress over the last 25 years, this progress falls short of what is needed to address the climate change problem. This paper presents the regime evolution in terms of the concept of single-,

  20. Climate change and the future of freshwater fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel J. Isaak

    2014-01-01

    My first awareness of the importance that climate has for fish came during my summer field seasons as a Ph.D. student at the University of Wyoming. While conducting electrofishing surveys in the climatically diverse Salt River basin along the mountainous border between Wyoming and Idaho, I observed spatial patterns in species distributions and abundance that strongly...

  1. Engineering a future for amphibians under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luke P. Shoo; Deanna H. Olson; Sarah K. McMenamin; Kris A. Murray; Monique VanSluys; Maureen A. Donnelly; Danial Stratford; Juhani Terhivuo; Andres Merino-Viteri; Sarah M. Herbert; Phillip J. Bishop; Paul Stephen Corn; Liz Dovey; Richard A. Griffiths; Katrin Lowe; Michael Mahony; Hamish McCallum; Jonathan D. Shuker; Clay Simpkins; Lee F. Skerratt; Stephen E. Williams; Jean-Marc Hero

    2011-01-01

    Altered global climates in the 21st century pose serious threats for biological systems and practical actions are needed to mount a response for species at risk. We identify management actions from across the world and from diverse disciplines that are applicable to minimizing loss of amphibian biodiversity under climate change. Actions were...

  2. Making decisions based on an imperfect ensemble of climate simulators: strategies and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, B. M.

    2017-12-01

    The CMIP ensembles represent the most comprehensive source of information available to decision-makers for climate adaptation, yet it is clear that there are fundamental limitations in our ability to treat the ensemble as an unbiased sample of possible future climate trajectories. There is considerable evidence that models are not independent, and increasing complexity and resolution combined with computational constraints prevent a thorough exploration of parametric uncertainty or internal variability. Although more data than ever is available for calibration, the optimization of each model is influenced by institutional priorities, historical precedent and available resources. The resulting ensemble thus represents a miscellany of climate simulators which defy traditional statistical interpretation. Models are in some cases interdependent, but are sufficiently complex that the degree of interdependency is conditional on the application. Configurations have been updated using available observations to some degree, but not in a consistent or easily identifiable fashion. This means that the ensemble cannot be viewed as a true posterior distribution updated by available data, but nor can observational data alone be used to assess individual model likelihood. We assess recent literature for combining projections from an imperfect ensemble of climate simulators. Beginning with our published methodology for addressing model interdependency and skill in the weighting scheme for the 4th US National Climate Assessment, we consider strategies for incorporating process-based constraints on future response, perturbed parameter experiments and multi-model output into an integrated framework. We focus on a number of guiding questions: Is the traditional framework of confidence in projections inferred from model agreement leading to biased or misleading conclusions? Can the benefits of upweighting skillful models be reconciled with the increased risk of truth lying outside the

  3. Collaborative Research: Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melillo, Jerry [Marine Biological Lab., Woods Hole, MA (United States)

    2017-12-12

    Our overall goal in this research was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal was motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments that encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we tested the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming. In collaboration with our Purdue and MIT colleagues, we have attempted to quantify global climate warming effects on land-atmosphere interactions, land-river network interactions, permafrost degradation, vegetation shifts, and land use influence water, carbon, and nitrogen fluxes to and from terrestrial ecosystems in the pan-arctic along with their

  4. America's Climate Choices: Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, A.; Fri, R.; Brown, M.; Geller, L.

    2010-12-01

    At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies the nation can take to respond to climate change. This suite of activities included a study on strategies for limiting the magnitude of future climate change (i.e. mitigation). Limiting climate change is a global effort that will require significant reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by countries around the world. U.S. action alone is not sufficient, but it is clearly necessary for the U.S. to make significant contributions to the global effort. While efforts to limit climate change are already underway across the U.S. (by state and local governments, businesses, non-governmental organizations, and individual households), we currently lack a framework of federal policies to help assure that all key actors participating and working towards coherent national goals. This study recommends a U.S. policy goal stated as a budget for cumulative greenhouse gas emissions through the year 2050, and offers an illustrative range of budget numbers derived from recent work of the Energy Modeling Forum. The report evaluates the types of changes to our nation's energy system that are needed to meet a budget in the proposed range, which leads to a conclusion that the U.S. must get started now in aggressively pursuing available emission reduction opportunities, while also investing heavily in R&D to create new emission reduction opportunities. The study offers a series of recommendations for how to move ahead in pursing these near-term and longer-term opportunities. The recommendations address the need for a carbon pricing system and strategically-targeted complimentary policies, for effective international engagement, for careful balancing of federal with state/local action, and for consideration of equity and employment impacts of response policies. The study also discusses the need to design policies that are both durable over the

  5. Present and Future Modes of Low Frequency Climate Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cane, Mark A.

    2014-02-20

    This project addressed area (1) of the FOA, “Interaction of Climate Change and Low Frequency Modes of Natural Climate Variability”. Our overarching objective is to detect, describe and understand the changes in low frequency variability between model simulations of the preindustrial climate and simulations of a doubled CO2 climate. The deliverables are a set of papers providing a dynamical characterization of interannual, decadal, and multidecadal variability in coupled models with attention to the changes in this low frequency variability between pre-industrial concentrations of greenhouse gases and a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The principle mode of analysis, singular vector decomposition, is designed to advance our physical, mechanistic understanding. This study will include external natural variability due to solar and volcanic aerosol variations as well as variability internal to the climate system. An important byproduct is a set of analysis tools for estimating global singular vector structures from the archived output of model simulations.

  6. Inequality, climate impacts on the future poor, and carbon prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennig, Francis; Budolfson, Mark B; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H

    2015-12-29

    Integrated assessment models of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. We create a variant of the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)-a regionally disaggregated version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE)-in which we introduce a more fine-grained representation of economic inequalities within the model's regions. This allows us to model the common observation that climate change impacts are not evenly distributed within regions and that poorer people are more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Our results suggest that this is important to the social cost of carbon-as significant, potentially, for the optimal carbon price as the debate between Stern and Nordhaus on discounting.

  7. Future road salt use in Switzerland: an example of an effective climate service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubler, Elias M.; Fischer, Andreas M.; Schlegel, Thomas H.; Liniger, Mark A.

    2015-04-01

    The application of salt is the predominant measure taken to enhance road safety in Switzerland by clearing the roads from snow or preventing frozen surfaces during winter. The need for road salt exhibits a strong interannual variability, according to Schweizer Salinen AG - the Swiss monopolist for production and distribution of road salt. These fluctuations are to a large extent a direct consequence of the year-to-year variability in winter climate. In the course of the 21st century, Swiss climate is projected to depart significantly from present and past conditions. By the end of the century, winter temperatures over Switzerland are expected to rise by about 2-4°C relative to the mean over the period 1980-2009, while winter precipitation may either increase or decrease based on ENSEMBLES regional climate model projections under the SRES-scenario A1B. Faced with these changes, Schweizer Salinen AG asked for an estimate of the expected future road salt use for designing their long-term business strategy. The study is based on climate change projections from the CH2011 initiative and later extensions thereof as well as monthly sales data of road salt from Schweizer Salinen AG. For the period 1997-2013, a linear relationship was derived between the average number of days with snowfall and the road salt amount sold over "saltation years" defined from October 1st to September 30th in the 26 cantons (provinces) of Switzerland. The ad-hoc linear relationship was applied to the climate change projections to obtain future salt use information in three future periods for the greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B, A2 and RCP3PD. We find that the expected future salt use is likely to be reduced by about 50% in 2045-2074 under the scenario A1B. Currently, the countrywide mean annual road salt use corresponds to about 220'000 tons. In a particularly snow-rich year, the company sells up to 400'000 tons. At the end of the century, following a pessimistic scenario such as A1B or A

  8. A 10-days heatwave around flowering superimposed on climate change conditions significantly affects production of 22 barley accessions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Lyngkjær, Michael F.; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo

    2015-01-01

    Extreme climate events as heatwaves, floods and storms cause acute changes in season variability influencing primary production and are very likely to increase in magnitude and/or frequency (IPCC, AR5, WGI). In the present study 22 primarily Nordic barley accessions were grown in four basic clima...... climate change conditions on numerous accessions in order to select appropriate genotypes for breeding future cultivars that can secure the primary production....

  9. Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Yin, X.; Zhu, Y.; Boote, K.; Adam, M.; Bregaglio, S.; Buis, S.; Confalonieri, R.; Fumoto, T.; Gaydon, D.; Marcaida III, M.; Nakagawa, H.; Oriol, P.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Singh, B.; Singh, U.; Tang, L.; Yoshida, H.; Zhang, Z.; Bouman, B.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We

  10. Challenges of using air conditioning in an increasingly hot climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundgren-Kownacki, Karin; Hornyanszky, Elisabeth Dalholm; Chu, Tuan Anh; Olsson, Johanna Alkan; Becker, Per

    2018-03-01

    At present, air conditioning (AC) is the most effective means for the cooling of indoor space. However, its increased global use is problematic for various reasons. This paper explores the challenges linked to increased AC use and discusses more sustainable alternatives. A literature review was conducted applying a transdisciplinary approach. It was further complemented by examples from cities in hot climates. To analyse the findings, an analytical framework was developed which considers four societal levels—individual, community, city, and national. The main challenges identified from the literature review are as follows: environmental, organisational, socio-economical, biophysical and behavioural. The paper also identifies several measures that could be taken to reduce the fast growth of AC use. However, due to the complex nature of the problem, there is no single solution to provide sustainable cooling. Alternative solutions were categorised in three broad categories: climate-sensitive urban planning and building design, alternative cooling technologies, and climate-sensitive attitudes and behaviour. The main findings concern the problems arising from leaving the responsibility to come up with cooling solutions entirely to the individual, and how different societal levels can work towards more sustainable cooling options. It is concluded that there is a need for a more holistic view both when it comes to combining various solutions as well as involving various levels in society.

  11. Assessment of the Adaptation Strategiesin Rainfed Chickpea in Response to Future Climate Change in Zanjan Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Hajarpoor

    2016-11-01

    the most promising adaptation option in the world. Earlier maturity cultivars may be needed to match future drier conditions. Thus alternative genotype was a cultivar with 20% lesser of the required biological day from emergence to flowering. M & G – The third adaptation practice was an attempt to combine both earliness and early sowing date (15 days. A randomized complete-block design was used for data analysis in which climate condition with considered treatment and years was considered as blocks. When it was necessary, mean comparison was done using a Least Significant Difference (LSD procedure at 5% level. Results and discussion The results showed that in future climatic change, mean yield for Zanjan province will reach to 1036 kg.ha-1 with 38.4% increasing which was statistically different compared to current situation (760 kg.ha-1. The possibilities for gathering more benefits of grain yield were tested by changing traditional management and genetics of the locations in the future climate which involved three management options as adaptation strategies (Earlier Sowing, Earlier maturity Cultivars and combination of these two options. Applying earlier sowing date in comparison with conventional sowing date, increased mean yield by 67.7% (1268 kg.ha-1. In addition, applied earlier maturity cultivar led to 1212 kg.ha-1 (63.9% increase in comparison with current cultivar. Results revealed that using earlier maturity cultivars in combination with earlier sowing date will increase mean yield up to 1452 kg.ha-1 (94.5% increase,whichwasthe consequence of a shift in growing season to a wetter part of the year and reduced the risk of late season drought stress. Furthermore, breeding for earliness by reducing the vegetative period would save more water to be used for grain filling. Under these circumstances, according to decreased environmental risks, yield sustainability will increase up to 28.4%. Conclusion The Results of this study can also be extended to water

  12. The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

    2018-01-01

    Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth’s climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased

  13. The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

    2017-11-01

    Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased

  14. The effects of climatic conditions on attitudinal changes towards ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    changes associated with climate change and climatic events. The .... influence of rainfall on differences in perceptions towards building materials in poor ...... in the form of flash floods, cloud bursts, or sudden climatic events. Unusually high or ...

  15. Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901-2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011-2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data.

  16. Facing future climate change: is the past relevant?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Luke

    2008-12-28

    From a socio-economic perspective, the 'sharp end' of climate research is very much about looking forward in time. As far as possible, we need to know what to expect and approximately when to expect it. However, it is argued here that our approach to climate change (including its scientific basis and its policy implications) is firmly linked to our understanding of the past. This is mainly due to the role played by palaeoclimate reconstructions in shaping our expectations of the climate system, in particular via their ability to test the accuracy of our climate models. Importantly, this includes the intuitive models that each of us carries around in our mind, as well as the more complex numerical models hiding inside supercomputers. It is through such models that palaeoclimate insights may affect the scientific and political judgements that we must make in the face of persistent and ultimately irreducible predictive uncertainty. Already we can demonstrate a great deal of confidence in our current understanding of the global climate system based specifically on insights from the geological record. If further advances are to be made effectively, climate models should take advantage of both past and present constraints on their behaviour, and should be given added credence to the extent that they are compatible with an increasingly rich tapestry of past climatic phenomena. Furthermore, palaeoclimate data should be accompanied by clearly defined uncertainties, and organized in arrays that are capable of speaking directly to numerical models, and their limitations in particular.

  17. The Future of Coral Reefs Subject to Rapid Climate Change: Lessons from Natural Extreme Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma F. Camp

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change and localized anthropogenic stressors are driving rapid declines in coral reef health. In vitro experiments have been fundamental in providing insight into how reef organisms will potentially respond to future climates. However, such experiments are inevitably limited in their ability to reproduce the complex interactions that govern reef systems. Studies examining coral communities that already persist under naturally-occurring extreme and marginal physicochemical conditions have therefore become increasingly popular to advance ecosystem scale predictions of future reef form and function, although no single site provides a perfect analog to future reefs. Here we review the current state of knowledge that exists on the distribution of corals in marginal and extreme environments, and geographic sites at the latitudinal extremes of reef growth, as well as a variety of shallow reef systems and reef-neighboring environments (including upwelling and CO2 vent sites. We also conduct a synthesis of the abiotic data that have been collected at these systems, to provide the first collective assessment on the range of extreme conditions under which corals currently persist. We use the review and data synthesis to increase our understanding of the biological and ecological mechanisms that facilitate survival and success under sub-optimal physicochemical conditions. This comprehensive assessment can begin to: (i highlight the extent of extreme abiotic scenarios under which corals can persist, (ii explore whether there are commonalities in coral taxa able to persist in such extremes, (iii provide evidence for key mechanisms required to support survival and/or persistence under sub-optimal environmental conditions, and (iv evaluate the potential of current sub-optimal coral environments to act as potential refugia under changing environmental conditions. Such a collective approach is critical to better understand the future survival of

  18. Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J

    2018-01-01

    Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.

  19. Modeling nonstationary extreme wave heights in present and future climates of Greek Seas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panagiota Galiatsatou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV distribution function was used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum wave heights for selected locations in the Greek Seas, both in the present and future climates. The available significant wave height data were divided into groups corresponding to the present period (1951–2000, a first future period (2001–2050, and a second future period (2051–2100. For each time period, the parameters of the GEV distribution were specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN. For each location and selected time period, a total number of 29 linear and nonlinear models were fitted to the wave data, for a given combination of covariates. The covariates used in the GEV-CDN models consisted of wind fields resulting from the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3 developed by the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP with a spatial resolution of 10 km × 10 km, after being processed using principal component analysis (PCA. The results obtained from the best fitted models in the present and future periods for each location were compared, revealing different patterns of relationships between wind components and extreme wave height quantiles in different parts of the Greek Seas and different periods. The analysis demonstrates an increase of extreme wave heights in the first future period as compared with the present period, causing a significant threat to Greek coastal areas in the North Aegean Sea and the Ionian Sea.

  20. Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

    2011-01-01

    California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  1. Data Assimilation by Conditioning of Driving Noise on Future Observations

    KAUST Repository

    Lee, Wonjung

    2014-08-01

    Conventional recursive filtering approaches, designed for quantifying the state of an evolving stochastic dynamical system with intermittent observations, use a sequence of i) an uncertainty propagation step followed by ii) a step where the associated data is assimilated using Bayes\\' rule. Alternatively, the order of the steps can be switched to i) one step ahead data assimilation followed by ii) uncertainty propagation. In this paper, we apply this smoothing-based sequential filter to systems driven by random noise, however with the conditioning on future observation not only to the system variable but to the driving noise. Our research reveals that, for the nonlinear filtering problem, the conditioned driving noise is biased by a nonzero mean and in turn pushes forward the filtering solution in time closer to the true state when it drives the system. As a result our proposed method can yield a more accurate approximate solution for the state estimation problem. © 1991-2012 IEEE.

  2. Back from a predicted climatic extinction of an island endemic: a future for the Corsican Nuthatch.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morgane Barbet-Massin

    Full Text Available The Corsican Nuthatch (Sitta whiteheadi is red-listed as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN because of its endemism, reduced population size, and recent decline. A further cause is the fragmentation and loss of its spatially-restricted favourite habitat, the Corsican pine (Pinus nigra laricio forest. In this study, we aimed at estimating the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Corsican Nuthatch using species distribution models. Because this species has a strong trophic association with the Corsican and Maritime pines (P. nigra laricio and P. pinaster, we first modelled the current and future potential distribution of both pine species in order to use them as habitat variables when modelling the nuthatch distribution. However, the Corsican pine has suffered large distribution losses in the past centuries due to the development of anthropogenic activities, and is now restricted to mountainous woodland. As a consequence, its realized niche is likely significantly smaller than its fundamental niche, so that a projection of the current distribution under future climatic conditions would produce misleading results. To obtain a predicted pine distribution at closest to the geographic projection of the fundamental niche, we used available information on the current pine distribution associated to information on the persistence of isolated natural pine coppices. While common thresholds (maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity predicted a potential large loss of the Corsican Nuthatch distribution by 2100, the use of more appropriate thresholds aiming at getting closer to the fundamental distribution of the Corsican pine predicted that 98% of the current presence points should remain potentially suitable for the nuthatch and its range could be 10% larger in the future. The habitat of the endemic Corsican Nuthatch is therefore more likely threatened by an increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires or anthropogenic

  3. Future climate change and regional fisheries: a collaborative analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sharp, Gary D

    2003-01-01

    .... The hydrological cycle is described, and its relevance to fisheries is made clear. Climate-related dynamics have had serious consequences in evolution of species, society and fisheries variability...

  4. VEMAP 2: Monthly Historical and Future Climate Data, Alaska, USA

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides the results of the development of The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) Phase 2 transient climate change scenarios...

  5. Imagining the future: The Power of Climate Change Fiction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buhr Sullivan, S. M.; Kellagher, E.; Poppleton, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    Fiction has galvanized the public imagination around societal concerns throughout US history, on issues including slavery, worker abuse and animal cruelty. A growing body of fiction concerned with climate change, 'cli-fi', provides the opportunity for students to engage with climate science in more visceral and affective ways. The Inspiring Climate Education Excellence (ICEE) project ran a climate and energy book club from Spring 2012 through Winter 2013, in which educators, scientists and writers participated. The fictional works were intended for audiences ranging from youth through adult, with themes of dystopia, renewal, hope, oppression, and innovation. This presentation will describe the benefits, opportunities and caveats of using these works within science teaching contexts, highlight some of the works which stood out from the rest and provide an annotated bibliography of books which were included or considered.

  6. Slarti: A boundary condition editor for a coupled climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickelson, S. A.; Jacob, R. L.; Pierrehumbert, R.

    2006-12-01

    One of the largest barriers to making climate models more flexible is the difficulty in creating new boundary conditions, especially for "deep time" paleoclimate cases where continents are in different positions. Climate models consist of several mutually-interacting component models and the boundary conditions must be consistent between them. We have developed a program called Slarti which uses a Graphical User Interface and a set of consistency rules to aid researchers in creating new, consistent, boundary condition files for the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM). Users can start from existing mask, topography, or bathymetry data or can build a "world" entirely from scratch (e.g. a single island continent). Once a case has been started, users can modify mask, vegetation, bathymetry, topography, and river flow fields by drawing new data through a "paint" interface. Users activate a synchronization button which goes through the fields to eliminate inconsistencies. When the changes are complete and save is selected, Slarti creates all the necessary files for an initial run of FOAM. The data is edited at the highest resolution (the ocean-land surface in FOAM) and then interpolated to the atmosphere resolution. Slarti was implemented in Java to maintain portability across platforms. We also relied heavily on Java Swing components to create the interface. This allowed us to create an object-oriented interface that could be used on many different systems. Since Slarti allows users to visualize their changes, they are able to see areas that may cause problems when the model is ran. Some examples would be lakes from the river flow field and narrow trenches within the bathymetry. Through different checks and options available through its interface, Slarti makes the process of creating new boundary conditions for FOAM easier and faster while reducing the chance for user errors.

  7. Properties of volcanic soils in cold climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, Elena

    2017-04-01

    Layers of volcanic ash and the Andosol soils derived from them may play an important role in preserving snow and ice as well as developing permafrost conditions in the immediate vicinity of volcanoes of high elevation or those situated at high latitudes, and land areas, often distant from volcanic activity that are either prone to permafrost or covered by snow and ice, but are affected by the deposition of subaerial ash. The special properties of volcanic ash that are responsible are critically reviewed particularly in relation to recent research in Kamchatka in the Far East of Russia. Of particular importance are the thermal properties and the unfrozen water contents of ash layers and the rate at which the weathering of volcanic glass takes place. Volcanic glass is the most easily weathered component of volcanic ejecta (Shoji et al., 1993; Kimble et al., 2000). There are many specific environmental conditions, including paleoclimate and present-day climate, the composition of volcanic tephra and glaciation history, which cause the differences in weathering and development of volcanic ash soils (Zehetner et al., 2003). The preservation of in situ, unweathered, and unaltered surficial ash-fall deposits in the cold regions has important implications for paleoclimate and glacial history. Ash-fall deposits, which trap and preserve the soils, sediments, and landforms on which they fall, can be used to resolve local climate conditions (temperature and moisture) at the ash site during ash-fall deposition. The preservation of detailed sedimentary features (e.g. bedding in the ash, sharpness of stratigraphic contacts) can tell us about their post-depositional history, whether they have been redeposited by wind or water, or overridden by glaciers (Marchant et al., 1996). Weathering of volcanic glass results in the development of amorphous clay minerals (e.g. allophane, opal, palagonite) but this takes place much slower in cold than under warmer climate conditions. Only few

  8. Governing Global Climate Change: Past Achievements, Future Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ella Kokotsis

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The cumulative effects of a significantly changing climate are projected to have disastrous implications on the world’s natural habitats, and along with that, are projected to drastically increase the rate and likelihood of violent conflict globally, particularly in high-density, urban, poverty hotspots. Limiting the effects of a changing climate is thus critical in influencing multiple societal goals including equitable sustainable development, human health, biodiversity, food security and access to reliable energy sources. This paper argues that the G7/8 has led global climate governance in ways other international environmental institu­tions have largely failed to do. It has done so largely by placing climate protection at the forefront of its policy objectives, alongside economic, health, energy and security goals, and reaching consensus repeatedly amongst its leaders on the impor­tance of stabilizing emissions through energy efficiency, conservation, investment and technological innovation. Moreover, this chapter argues that the summit’s predominant capability, its constricted participation, democratic convergence and political cohesion – as well as the combined effects of global shocks – have all had positive impacts on the G7/8’s success in mitigating climate change. Following a detailed process-tracing exercise over the summit’s 40-year history in which clear surges and retreats on global climate governance are outlined, this paper concludes by assessing the G7/8’s accountability record on climate mitigation and outlines a set of prescriptive recommendations, allowing for the delivery of a more tangible, coherent, results-driven accountability process for global climate governance.

  9. Copenhagen Climate Change Conference: The Current Situation and the Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broughton, Emma

    2010-01-01

    The Copenhagen climate change conference has failed to meet expectations but has also led to a shift in the structure of multilateral negotiations on climate change. States have reclaimed negotiations, while the UN-centred structure has been weakened. Relations between developed and emerging countries have shifted, with the latter influence growing. There has also been an increased participation of civil-society actors (NGOs) in the debate. A new negotiation structure is emerging but it faces the difficult challenge of avoiding fragmentation

  10. Climatic change effects on agriculture. A future scenario; Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Landwirtschaft. Ein Zukunftsszenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busch, Udo [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach (Germany). Abt. Agrarmeteorologie

    2014-07-01

    The contribution on the effect of the climatic change on agriculture covers the topics meteorology - agriculture, modeling of the climate, observation of projected changes - temperature, precipitation and extreme weather conditions; effects of the climatic change on selected agro-meteorological parameters in agriculture - surface temperature, shift of the growing period, corn and other energy plants for biogas production, droughts.

  11. Simulating future wheat yield under climate change, carbon dioxide enrichment and technology improvement in Iran. Case study: Azarbaijan region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mansouri, H.; Raei, Y.; Zaeim, A.N.

    2015-07-01

    Climate change and technology development can affect crop productivity in future conditions. Precise estimation of crops yield change as affected by climate and technology in the future is an effective approach for management strategies. The aim of this study was to estimate the impacts of climate change, technology improvement, CO2 enrichment, and overall impacts on wheat yield under future conditions. Wheat yield was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) compared to baseline year (2011) under two scenarios of IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) including SRES-A2 as regional economic scenario and SRES-B1 as global environmental scenario in Azarbaijan region (NW of Iran). A linear regression model, describing the relationship between wheat yield and historical year, was developed to investigate technology development effect. The decision support system for agro-technology transfer (DSSAT4.5) was used to evaluate the influence of climate change on wheat yield. The most positive effects were found for wheat yield as affected by technology in all studied regions. Under future climate change, the SRES projected a decrease in yield, especially in West Azarbaijan region. When the effects of elevated CO2 were considered, all regions resulted to increase in wheat yield. Considering all components effect in comparison with baseline (2011), yield increase would range from 5% to 38% across all times, scenarios and regions. According to our findings, it seems that we may expect a higher yield of wheat in NW Iran in the future if technology development continues as well as past years. (Author)

  12. Physical Responses of Convective Heavy Rainfall to Future Warming Condition: Case Study of the Hiroshima Event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenshi Hibino

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available An extreme precipitation event happened at Hiroshima in 2014. Over 200 mm of total rainfall was observed on the night of August 19th, which caused floods and many landslides. The rainfall event was estimated to be a rare event happening once in approximately 30 years. The physical response of this event to the change of the future atmospheric condition, which includes a temperature increase on average and convective stability change, is investigated in the present study using a 27-member ensemble experiment and pseudo global warming downscaling method. The experiment is integrated using the Japan Meteorological Research Institute non-hydrostatic regional climate model. A very high-resolution horizontal grid, 500 m, is used to reproduce dense cumulonimbus cloud formation causing heavy rainfall in the model. The future climate condition determined by a higher greenhouse gas concentration is prescribed to the model, in which the surface air temperature globally averaged is 4 K warmer than that in the preindustrial era. The total amounts of precipitation around the Hiroshima area in the future experiments are closer to or slightly lower than in the current experiments in spite of the increase in water vapor due to the atmospheric warming. The effect of the water vapor increase on extreme precipitation is found to be canceled out by the suppression of convection due to the thermal stability enhancement. The fact that future extreme precipitation like the Hiroshima event is not intensified is in contrast to the well-known result that extreme rainfall tends to be intensified in the future. The results in the present study imply that the response of extreme precipitation to global warming differs for each rainfall phenomenon.

  13. The potential for cold climate conditions and permafrost in Forsmark in the next 60 000 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Zhang, Qiong; Hartikainen, Juha

    2013-05-01

    This report presents results of a study devoted to extend the current knowledge of the climate in Sweden in the next ∼60,000 years (60 ka). Specifically, the potential of cold climate and permafrost development in south-central Sweden, and in the Forsmark region, over this time horizon was investigated. The climate system is an interactive system consisting of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryo sphere, the land surface and the biosphere, forced or influenced by various external forcing mechanisms, of which the most important is the Sun. Also the direct effect of human activities on the climate system is considered an external forcing. The latitudinal and seasonal distribution of incoming solar radiation (insolation) varies on millennial time scales due to variations in the Earth's orbit and axial tilt. These variations, together with variations in the atmospheric CO 2 concentration, are viewed as two main factors in determining the climate variation between interglacial (warmer) and glacial (colder) climates. Summer insolation at high northern latitudes is at a minimum 17 ka and 54 ka after present (AP). These periods were therefore identified as potential future periods of cold climate conditions in high northern latitudes in general and in south-central Sweden in particular. Due to human emissions of carbon to the atmosphere, the atmospheric CO 2 concentration is currently 392 ppmv (2011 AD), a substantial increase as compared to the range of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of 180-295 ppmv found in ice cores for the last 400 ka. The future atmospheric CO 2 concentration is determined by i) future human carbon emissions to the atmosphere, ii) possible emissions due to feedbacks in the climate system, and iii) by the global carbon cycle. To investigate the potential of cold climate conditions in south-central Sweden in the next 60 ka the future air temperature in Forsmark was estimated based on simulations with an Earth system model

  14. Sales down due to particularly mild climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Paris, 27 July 2007 - For the six months to 30 June 2007, Gaz de France's consolidated sales amounted to euro 13,778 million, down 11 per cent compared to the same period in 2006. This performance continues the trend seen over the first quarter of 2007 and in particular reflects the continuation into the second quarter of the climatic factors that affected the start of the year: an exceptionally warm 2006/2007 winter, followed by a spring season with particularly high temperatures. The average temperature of the first half of 2007 corresponds to a heat risk of less than one per cent, meaning that the probability of such a temperature taking place is less than one per cent. Over the first half of the year, volumes distributed in France were down by 25 TWh compared to a comparable period with average weather conditions, whereas in 2006 they were 15 TWh above average. The impact of the weather had similar effects outside of France. Under average weather conditions, the downturn in Group sales was limited to only 0.8 per cent mainly due to market conditions made difficult by the climate, leading to a lower level of gas production and arbitrage activities. Over the first six months of 2007, the Group sought to: - Continue to strengthen its international presence, currently with euro 5,602 million in sales outside of France. The percentage of sales generated outside of France represented 41 per cent of the Group total at the end of June 2007 and increased by 4 percentage points between the first half of 2006 and the first half of 2007. - Prepare for the deregulation of the markets on 1 July 2007 and a new commercial policy for retail customers that has been built around multi-energy and multi-service market offerings. - Create a new subsidiary for the distribution, a process which will be effective at the end of the year as announced. In spite of this unfavourable context, the Group maintains the financial objective for 2007 presented with the 2006 accounts: '2007 will

  15. Sales down due to particularly mild climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    Paris, 27 July 2007 - For the six months to 30 June 2007, Gaz de France's consolidated sales amounted to euro 13,778 million, down 11 per cent compared to the same period in 2006. This performance continues the trend seen over the first quarter of 2007 and in particular reflects the continuation into the second quarter of the climatic factors that affected the start of the year: an exceptionally warm 2006/2007 winter, followed by a spring season with particularly high temperatures. The average temperature of the first half of 2007 corresponds to a heat risk of less than one per cent, meaning that the probability of such a temperature taking place is less than one per cent. Over the first half of the year, volumes distributed in France were down by 25 TWh compared to a comparable period with average weather conditions, whereas in 2006 they were 15 TWh above average. The impact of the weather had similar effects outside of France. Under average weather conditions, the downturn in Group sales was limited to only 0.8 per cent mainly due to market conditions made difficult by the climate, leading to a lower level of gas production and arbitrage activities. Over the first six months of 2007, the Group sought to: - Continue to strengthen its international presence, currently with euro 5,602 million in sales outside of France. The percentage of sales generated outside of France represented 41 per cent of the Group total at the end of June 2007 and increased by 4 percentage points between the first half of 2006 and the first half of 2007. - Prepare for the deregulation of the markets on 1 July 2007 and a new commercial policy for retail customers that has been built around multi-energy and multi-service market offerings. - Create a new subsidiary for the distribution, a process which will be effective at the end of the year as announced. In spite of this unfavourable context, the Group maintains the financial objective for 2007 presented with the 2006 accounts: &apos

  16. Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

    2013-04-01

    . Nonetheless, according to the results of this work future ozone is conditioned by the dependence of biogenic emissions on the climatological patterns of variability. In this sense, ozone over Europe is mainly driven by the warming-induced increase in biogenic emitting activity (vegetation is kept invariable in the simulations, but estimations of these emissions strongly depends on shortwave radiation and temperature, which are substantially modified in climatic simulations). Moreover, one of the most important drivers for ozone increase is the decrease of cloudiness (related to stronger solar radiation) mostly over southern Europe at the first half of the XXI century. However, given the large uncertainty isoprene sensitivity to climate change and the large uncertainties associated to the cloudiness projections, these results should be carefully considered.

  17. Assessment of tourism and recreation destinations under climate change conditions in Austria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matzarakis, Andreas; Haemmerle, Martin [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Endler, Christina [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Research Center Human Biometeorology, Freiburg (Germany). German Weather Service; Muthers, Stefan [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Climate and Environmental Physics; Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research; Koch, Elisabeth [Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamcis, Vienna (Austria)

    2012-04-15

    Tourism and recreation are important economic factors which are directly connected to weather and climate of a specific destination. Based on the observation network of the Central Institute of Meteorology and Geodynamics of Austria (ZAMG), data of 37 stations has been collected and analysed for tourism and recreation purposes. The analysis was based on long term data sets which were processed in relevant ways for tourism and recreation, resulting in frequency diagrams of Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and precipitation. Additionally, we prepared the results according to the demands of tourism and recreation authorities and industry using the Climate-Tourism/Transfer-Information-Scheme (CTIS). Applying data from the regional climate models REMO and CLM we can provide information on future climate conditions in Austria's recreation areas. We chose two different time slices (2021-2050, 2071-2100) and IPCC emission scenarios (A1B, B1). The data was processed based on the threshold factors which are included in the CTIS (e.g. thermal comfort, heat stress, cold stress, sunshine, etc.). For the time slice 2021-2050 only moderate changes can be expected. But for 2071-2100 one can observe a distinct decrease of cold stress and the skiing potential. On the other hand, moderate increases of thermal comfort, heat stress, sultriness and sunshine are expected. No tendencies can be seen in precipitation and wind conditions. (orig.)

  18. Smart city planning under the climate change condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Dexiang; Zhao, Yue; Zhou, Xi

    2017-08-01

    With the aggravation of climate change, extreme weather events occur continuously, cities are not resilient to climate change, and we need to change the concept of urban planning, centering on climate research and its research achievements, combining with the modern intelligent technology and formulating a smart city that resilience to the climate change, realizing the sustainable development of human, city, environment and society.

  19. Contemplating the Future: Building Student Resilience in Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, E.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change research has largely focused on the biophysical, economic, and political aspects of the phenomenon, its projected impacts, and the possibilities for adaptation (Carey et al. 2014; Castree et al. 2014). In the classroom, too, climate change is generally presented as a scientific, technological, political, and economic challenge. However, defining climate change as physical challenge, divorced from its cultural causes and responses, forecloses some pathways of inquiry and limits the possibilities for adaptation (Adger et al. 2013). Recent perspectives by the environmental historian Mark Carey and colleagues (2014) and by the geographer Noel Castree and colleagues (2014) contend that ethnographic, narrative, social scientific, and humanistic insights are necessary additions to the climate change policy process and can contribute to deliberate, resilient responses to climate change. Among the humanistic insights needed are strategies and practices to maintain fortitude and persistence in the midst of dispiriting ecological trends. Students facing the "gloom and doom" of climate change data in environmental studies courses can experience negative states of mind such as denial, despair, burnout, and grief. Emerging research, however, demonstrates how contemplative practice can shift consciousness and promote resilience. Contemplative practices are those that consciously direct calm, focused attention. Such practices can build internal resilience, by promoting a greater sense of calm and well-being, decreasing stress, and sharpening focus and concentration. In addition, contemplative practices improve relationships with other people, through increasing compassion and flexibility in thinking. They also strengthen relationships with the surrounding world by increasing our ability to question, explore, and cope with rapid change and complexity. This presentation provides a context for incorporating contemplative practices, including mindfulness exercises

  20. Translating Big Data into Big Climate Ideas: Communicating Future Climate Scenarios to Increase Interdisciplinary Engagement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change has emerged as the significant environmental challenge of the 21st century. Therefore, understanding our changing world has forced researchers from many different fields of science to join together to tackle complicated research questions. The climate change resear...

  1. Future changes in atmospheric condition for the baiu under RCP scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, Y.; Takemi, T.; Ishikawa, H.

    2015-12-01

    This study focuses on atmospheric circulation fields during the baiu in Japan with global warming projection experimental data conducted using a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model (MRI-AGCM3.2) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. This model also used 4 different sea surface temperature (SST) initial conditions. Support of this dataset is provided by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The baiu front indicated by the north-south gradient of moist static energy moves northward in present-day climate, whereas this northward shift in future climate simulations is very slow during May and June. In future late baiu season, the baiu front stays in the northern part of Japan even in August. As a result, the rich water vapor is transported around western Japan and the daily precipitation amount will increase in August. This northward shift of baiu front is associated with the westward expansion of the enhanced the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) into Japan region. However, the convective activity around northwest Pacific Ocean is inactive and is unlikely to occur convective jump (CJ). These models show that the weak trough exists in upper troposphere around Japan. Therefore, the cold advection stays in the northern part of Japan during June. In July, the front due to the strengthening of the NPSH moves northward, and then it stays until August. This feature is often found between the clustered SSTs, Cluster 2 and 3. The mean field of future August also show the inflow of rich water vapor content to Japan islands. In this model, the extreme rainfall suggested tends to almost increase over the Japan islands during future summer. This work was conducted under the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT).

  2. Predicting ecological responses of the Florida Everglades to possible future climate scenarios: Introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aumen, Nicholas G.; Havens, Karl E; Best, G. Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

    2015-01-01

    Florida’s Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem’s spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world’s largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

  3. Future consequences and challenges for dairy cow production systems arising from climate change in Central Europe - a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauly, M; Bollwein, H; Breves, G; Brügemann, K; Dänicke, S; Daş, G; Demeler, J; Hansen, H; Isselstein, J; König, S; Lohölter, M; Martinsohn, M; Meyer, U; Potthoff, M; Sanker, C; Schröder, B; Wrage, N; Meibaum, B; von Samson-Himmelstjerna, G; Stinshoff, H; Wrenzycki, C

    2013-05-01

    It is well documented that global warming is unequivocal. Dairy production systems are considered as important sources of greenhouse gas emissions; however, little is known about the sensitivity and vulnerability of these production systems themselves to climate warming. This review brings different aspects of dairy cow production in Central Europe into focus, with a holistic approach to emphasize potential future consequences and challenges arising from climate change. With the current understanding of the effects of climate change, it is expected that yield of forage per hectare will be influenced positively, whereas quality will mainly depend on water availability and soil characteristics. Thus, the botanical composition of future grassland should include species that are able to withstand the changing conditions (e.g. lucerne and bird's foot trefoil). Changes in nutrient concentration of forage plants, elevated heat loads and altered feeding patterns of animals may influence rumen physiology. Several promising nutritional strategies are available to lower potential negative impacts of climate change on dairy cow nutrition and performance. Adjustment of feeding and drinking regimes, diet composition and additive supplementation can contribute to the maintenance of adequate dairy cow nutrition and performance. Provision of adequate shade and cooling will reduce the direct effects of heat stress. As estimated genetic parameters are promising, heat stress tolerance as a functional trait may be included into breeding programmes. Indirect effects of global warming on the health and welfare of animals seem to be more complicated and thus are less predictable. As the epidemiology of certain gastrointestinal nematodes and liver fluke is favourably influenced by increased temperature and humidity, relations between climate change and disease dynamics should be followed closely. Under current conditions, climate change associated economic impacts are estimated to be

  4. Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Drought Events in the Weihe River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Yuan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative evaluation of future climate change impacts on hydrological drought characteristics is one of important measures for implementing sustainable water resources management and effective disaster mitigation in drought-prone regions under the changing environment. In this study, a modeling system for projecting the potential future climate change impacts on hydrological droughts in the Weihe River basin (WRB in North China is presented. This system consists of a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from three climate models (CMs for future streamflow projections, a probabilistic model for univariate drought assessment, and a copula-based bivariate model for joint drought frequency analysis under historical and future climates. With the observed historical climate data as the inputs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model projects an overall runoff reduction in the WRB under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. The univariate drought assessment found that although fewer hydrological drought events would occur under A1B scenario, drought duration and severity tend to increase remarkably. Moreover, the bivariate drought assessment reveals that future droughts in the same return period as the baseline droughts would become more serious. With these trends in the future, the hydrological drought situation in the WRB would be further deteriorated.

  5. Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gerrad D; Droz, Boris; Greve, Peter; Gottschalk, Pia; Poffet, Deyan; McGrath, Steve P; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Smith, Pete; Winkel, Lenny H E

    2017-03-14

    Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980-1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate-soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080-2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate-soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change.

  6. To the micro-climatic condition influence upon the environment pollution during exploitation of being oxidized mineral deposits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhmedzhanov, T.K.; Al'mukhambetova, Sh.K.; Bajramov, I.M.

    1998-01-01

    Conducted researches showed dependence of environment pollution rate under exploration of being oxidized mineral deposits from number of meteorological futures of season changes. Zones of gases spreading in atmosphere from sources of pollution in dependence from micro-climatic conditions are estimated. Results can be used during preventive measures projecting for environment in deposits districts. (author)

  7. Future coral reef habitat marginality: Temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guinotte, J.M.; Buddemeier, R.W.; Kleypas, J.A.

    2003-01-01

    Marginal reef habitats are regarded as regions where coral reefs and coral communities reflect the effects of steady-state or long-term average environmental limitations. We used classifications based on this concept with predicted time-variant conditions of future climate to develop a scenario for the evolution of future marginality. Model results based on a conservative scenario of atmospheric CO2 increase were used to examine changes in sea surface temperature and aragonite saturation state over the Pacific Ocean basin until 2069. Results of the projections indicated that essentially all reef locations are likely to become marginal with respect to aragonite saturation state. Significant areas, including some with the highest biodiversity, are expected to experience high-temperature regimes that may be marginal, and additional areas will enter the borderline high temperature range that have experienced significant ENSO-related bleaching in the recent past. The positive effects of warming in areas that are presently marginal in terms of low temperature were limited. Conditions of the late 21st century do not lie outside the ranges in which present-day marginal reef systems occur. Adaptive and acclimative capabilities of organisms and communities will be critical in determining the future of coral reef ecosystems.

  8. Modelling the Northward Expansion of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae under Future Climate Scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Zuliani

    considerations. The results of this study can inform the development of cost effective surveillance programs, targeting areas within the predicted limits of C. sonorensis geographical occurrence under current and future climatic conditions.

  9. The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

    2013-12-01

    At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

  10. Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

    2010-01-01

    Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

  11. How do Changes in Hydro-Climate Conditions Alter the Risk of Infection With Fasciolosis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beltrame, L.; Dunne, T.; Rose, H.; Walker, J.; Morgan, E.; Vickerman, P.; Wagener, T.

    2017-12-01

    Fasciolosis is a widespread parasitic disease of livestock and is emerging as a major zoonosis. Since the parasite and its intermediate host live and develop in the environment, risk of infection is directly affected by climatic-environmental conditions. Changes in disease prevalence, seasonality and distribution have been reported in recent years and attributed to altered temperature and rainfall patterns, raising concerns about the effects of climate change in the future. Therefore, it is urgent to understand how changes in climate-environmental drivers may alter the dynamics of disease risk in a quantitative way, to guide parasite control strategies and interventions in the coming decades. In a previous work, we developed and tested a novel mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Fasciolosis, which explicitly represents the parasite life-cycle in connection with key environmental processes, allowing to capture the impact of previously unseen conditions. In this study, we use the new mechanistic model to assess the sensitivity of infection rates to changes in climate-environmental factors. This is challenging as processes underlying disease transmission are complex and interacting, and may have contrasting effects on the parasite life-cycle stages. To this end, we set up a sensitivity analysis framework to investigate in a structured way which factors play a key role in controlling the magnitude, timing and spread of infection, and how the sensitivity of disease risk varies in time and space. Moreover, we define synthetic scenarios to explore the space of possible variability of the hydro-climate drivers and investigate conditions that lead to critical levels of infection. The study shows how the new model combined with the sensitivity analysis framework can support decision-making, providing useful information for disease management.

  12. Climate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Santana Andrade

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low. Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (60%. Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.

  13. Quantifying conditional risks for water and energy systems using climate information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2016-12-01

    There has been a growing recognition of the multi-scale spatio-temporal organization of climate dynamics, and its implications for predictable, structured risk exposure to populations and infrastructure systems. At the most base level is an understanding that there are some identifiable climate modes, such as ENSO, that are associated with such outcomes. This has led to the emergence of a small cottage industry of analysts who relate different "climate indices" to specific regional outcomes. Such efforts and the associated media interest in these simplified "stories" have led to an increasing appreciation of the phenomenon, and some formal and informal efforts at decision making using such information. However, as was demonstrated through the 2014-16 El Nino forecasting season, many climate scientists over-emphasized the potential risks, while others cautioned the media as to the caveats and uncertainties associated with assuming that the forecasts of ENSO and the expected teleconnections may pan out. At least in certain sectors and regions, significant efforts or expectations as to outcomes were put in place, and some were beneficial, while others failed to manifest. Climate informed predictions for water and energy systems can be thought of as efforts to infer conditional distributions of specific outcomes given information on climate state. Invariably, the climate state may be presented as a very high dimensional spatial set of variables, with limited temporal sampling, while the water and energy attributes may be regional and constitute a much smaller dimension. One may, of course, be interested in the fact that the same climate state may lead to synchronous positive and negative effects across many locations, as may be expected under mid-latitude stationary and transient wave interaction. In this talk, I will provide examples of a few modern statistical and machine learning tools that allow a decomposition of the high dimensional climate state and its relation

  14. From Site Data to Safety Assessment: Analysis of Present and Future Hydrological Conditions at a Coastal Site in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berglund, Sten; Bosson, Emma; Sassner, Mona

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of present and future hydrological conditions at the Forsmark site in Sweden, which has been proposed as the site for a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. Forsmark is a coastal site that changes in response to shoreline displacement. In the considered time frame (until year 10 000 ad), the hydrological system will be affected by landscape succession associated with shoreline displacement and changes in vegetation, regolith stratigraphy, and climate. Based on extensive site investigations and modeling of present hydrological conditions, the effects of different processes on future site hydrology are quantified. As expected, shoreline displacement has a strong effect on local hydrology (e.g., groundwater flow) in areas that change from sea to land. The comparison between present and future land areas emphasizes the importance of climate variables relative to other factors for main hydrological features such as water balances

  15. Warm climates of the past--a lesson for the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunt, D J; Elderfield, H; Pancost, R; Ridgwell, A; Foster, G L; Haywood, A; Kiehl, J; Sagoo, N; Shields, C; Stone, E J; Valdes, P

    2013-10-28

    This Discussion Meeting Issue of the Philosophical Transactions A had its genesis in a Discussion Meeting of the Royal Society which took place on 10-11 October 2011. The Discussion Meeting, entitled 'Warm climates of the past: a lesson for the future?', brought together 16 eminent international speakers from the field of palaeoclimate, and was attended by over 280 scientists and members of the public. Many of the speakers have contributed to the papers compiled in this Discussion Meeting Issue. The papers summarize the talks at the meeting, and present further or related work. This Discussion Meeting Issue asks to what extent information gleaned from the study of past climates can aid our understanding of future climate change. Climate change is currently an issue at the forefront of environmental science, and also has important sociological and political implications. Most future predictions are carried out by complex numerical models; however, these models cannot be rigorously tested for scenarios outside of the modern, without making use of past climate data. Furthermore, past climate data can inform our understanding of how the Earth system operates, and can provide important contextual information related to environmental change. All past time periods can be useful in this context; here, we focus on past climates that were warmer than the modern climate, as these are likely to be the most similar to the future. This introductory paper is not meant as a comprehensive overview of all work in this field. Instead, it gives an introduction to the important issues therein, using the papers in this Discussion Meeting Issue, and other works from all the Discussion Meeting speakers, as exemplars of the various ways in which past climates can inform projections of future climate. Furthermore, we present new work that uses a palaeo constraint to quantitatively inform projections of future equilibrium ice sheet change.

  16. Balancing energy, development and climate priorities in India. Current trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Dhar, S.; Halsnaes, K.

    2007-09-01

    This report gives a short introduction to the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing countries. Furthermore, the report analyses Indian energy, development and climate change, followed by an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. The focus is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. (BA)

  17. Synergy between land use and climate change increases future risk in Amazon forests

    OpenAIRE

    Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Pereira, José Miguel Cardoso; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

    2017-01-01

    Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest’s future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climatedriven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and ...

  18. Attribution of soil moisture dynamics - Initial conditions vs. atmospheric forcing and the role of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2014-05-01

    The world's climate has started to change more quickly in recent decades and a stronger and faster shift is expected in the future. Even if the public perception is mostly limited to a widespread warming, climate change is a complex phenomenon impacting numerous variables of the climate system in different ways, also depending on time and location. Furthermore, extreme events may change more drastically than the mean climate. There is growing evidence that climate change is mostly man-made. However, it is still a matter of debate to which extent changes of the mean climate but also of particular (extreme) events are due to human impact. These questions are addressed by the growing science of climate attribution. Pointing out the anthropogenic influence on extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heatwave or the 2002 floods in Central Europe may help to support adaptation to climate change. This study investigates soil moisture in Europe in the context of climate change, because of its role as a key variable of the land-climate system and its practical importance for instance to agriculture. To derive soil moisture dynamics from 1984-2007 we use E-OBS forcing data together with SRB radiation data and employ an observation-based approach where soil moisture is computed from a water balance equation in which runoff (normalized with precipitation) and ET (normalized with net radiation) are simple functions of soil moisture. The constant runoff function is prescribed for the whole continent, and the ET function is calibrated using temperature data. After performing a validation of the inferred soil moisture data we use it in order to analyze changes in the likelihood of droughts. Our results show increased drought risk especially in north-eastern Europe and the Mediterranean, whereby the probability of extreme droughts increases stronger as for mild dryness episodes. To assess the potential for drought forecasting we furthermore study the importance of the initial

  19. Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Wenju; Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wu, Lixin

    2017-03-01

    The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities, as occurred in January 2013. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950-1999) and future (2050-2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.

  20. The potential for cold climate conditions and permafrost in Forsmark in the next 60 000 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove [Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering, Stockholm (Sweden); Zhang, Qiong [Dept. of Meteorology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden); Hartikainen, Juha [School of Engineering, Aalto Univ., Aalto (Finland)

    2013-05-15

    This report presents results of a study devoted to extend the current knowledge of the climate in Sweden in the next {approx}60,000 years (60 ka). Specifically, the potential of cold climate and permafrost development in south-central Sweden, and in the Forsmark region, over this time horizon was investigated. The climate system is an interactive system consisting of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryo sphere, the land surface and the biosphere, forced or influenced by various external forcing mechanisms, of which the most important is the Sun. Also the direct effect of human activities on the climate system is considered an external forcing. The latitudinal and seasonal distribution of incoming solar radiation (insolation) varies on millennial time scales due to variations in the Earth's orbit and axial tilt. These variations, together with variations in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, are viewed as two main factors in determining the climate variation between interglacial (warmer) and glacial (colder) climates. Summer insolation at high northern latitudes is at a minimum 17 ka and 54 ka after present (AP). These periods were therefore identified as potential future periods of cold climate conditions in high northern latitudes in general and in south-central Sweden in particular. Due to human emissions of carbon to the atmosphere, the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is currently 392 ppmv (2011 AD), a substantial increase as compared to the range of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations of 180-295 ppmv found in ice cores for the last 400 ka. The future atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is determined by i) future human carbon emissions to the atmosphere, ii) possible emissions due to feedbacks in the climate system, and iii) by the global carbon cycle. To investigate the potential of cold climate conditions in south-central Sweden in the next 60 ka the future air temperature in Forsmark was estimated based on

  1. Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jinlong; Zhai, Jianqing; Jiang, Tong; Wang, Yanjun; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Run; Xiong, Ming; Su, Buda; Fischer, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, the intensity, area and duration of future droughts in China are analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The SPI and SPEI are used to evaluate the simulation ability of drought characteristics with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The projected intensity and duration of future drought events are analyzed for the period 2016-2050 under three different respective concentration pathways (RCPs). The simulated and projected drought events are analyzed by applying the intensity-area-duration method. The results show that CCLM has a robust capability to simulate the average drought characteristics, while some regional disparities are not well captured, mainly the simulation of more drought events of shorter duration in Northwest China. For the future period 2016-2050, more intense dryness conditions are projected for China. An increase in evapotranspiration is found all over China, while a reduction in precipitation is apparent in the southern river basins. The increase in evapotranspiration plays an important role in the changes of future droughts over the northern river basins and southern river basins. Under RCP2.6, drought events of longer duration and with higher frequency are projected for the southwest and southeast of China. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a continuing tendency to more dry conditions is projected along a dryness band stretching from the southwest to the northeast of China. More frequent drought events of longer duration are projected in the southwestern river basins. For all future droughts, larger extents are projected, especially for events with long-term duration. The projected long-term drought events will occur more often and more severe than during the baseline period, and their central locations will likely shift towards Southeast China. The results of this study can be used to initiate and strengthen drought adaptation measures at

  2. Effect assessment of Future Climate Change on Water Resource and Snow Quality in cold snowy regions in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniguchi, Y.; Nakatsugawa, M.; Kudo, K.

    2017-12-01

    snow. If the late-season snow on the slope becomes granular earlier than it has in previous years, then the ski resort's snow conditions will deteriorate. Businesses that receive economic benefits from snow have developed in cold, snowy areas. This study demonstrates that the economic benefits of snow are expected to be greatly reduced by future climate change.

  3. Long-term evolution of the Campine area in Northern Belgium: past and expected future evolution of tectonics and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Craen, M.; Beerten, K.; Brassinnes, S.; Wouters, L.

    2012-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. Disposal of radioactive waste in a geological repository involves the reliance, now and in the long-term future, on the geological and hydrogeological environment. In preparation of the safety and feasibility case 1 (SFC1), the long-term geodynamic evolution of Boom Clay and its geological environment in the Campine area in northern Belgium is studied. Time frames considered are the geological past and the future 1 million year. The idea is that the past long-term evolution can be extended to predict what might happen in the future. In this paper, we first focusses on the past long-term tectonic evolution of the Campine area, and make an extrapolation for the future 1 Ma. We then focus on past climate evolution, and similarly, an assessment of possible future climate conditions is made for the Campine area within the next 1 Ma. Another paper focusses on the combined effect of tectonics and climate on the evolution of the surface environment in the Campine area for the next 1 Ma, with respect to geomorphological, pedological and hydrological processes. During the Palaeozoic, the geodynamic evolution of the Campine area was mainly determined by tectonics. A large intermittently subsiding sedimentary basin existed in which large amounts of sediments were deposited, and which was protected by the Brabant Massif from major oro-genetic compressive processes. Palaeozoic sediments in the Campine Basin reach a maximum thickness of 4000 m. During Mesozoic and Cenozoic, its geodynamic evolution was the interactive result of plate tectonics, sea level changes and climate evolution. Further subsidence resulted in a thick sequence of sedimentary deposits. Mesozoic sediments are found throughout the Campine area while remains of Jurassic-Triassic sediments are found only in the central Roer Valley Graben in the east. The Cenozoic is characterised by a succession of sub-horizontal layers of Tertiary clays and sands and covered by

  4. The yield of eggplant depending on climate conditions and mulching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adamczewska-Sowińska Katarzyna

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The field production of eggplant in moderate climates is difficult as it depends heavily on thermal conditions. Eggplant is a species that is sensitive to low temperatures, and temperatures below 16°C constrain the growth of young plants. Other disadvantageous factors include: temperatures that are too high, water shortage and excessive soil humidity. The growth conditions for eggplant can be improved by using mulches. The purpose of the experiment was the assessment of eggplant cropping while using synthetic mulches of polyethylene foil and polypropylene textile. The research took five years (2008-2012 and on the basis of the obtained results it was possible to determine the influence of weather conditions on the yielding of this species. It was proven that eggplant cropping significantly depended on the air temperature and the amount of rainfall during the vegetation period. The highest yield was observed when the average air temperature was high and at the same time rainfall was evenly distributed throughout the vegetation season. It also turned out that the agro-technical procedure which significantly increased eggplant fruit cropping was mulching the soil with polyethylene black foil, or transparent foil, previously having applied a herbicide.

  5. Combined analysis of climate, technological and price changes on future arable farming systems in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Kros, J.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Britz, W.; Reinds, G.J.; Ewert, F.; Vries, de W.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we compare the relative importance of climate change to technological, management, price and policy changes on European arable farming systems. This required linking four models: the SIMPLACE crop growth modelling framework to calculate future yields under climate change for arable

  6. The impact of Future Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Atmospheric Chemistry-Climate Interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ganzeveld, L.N.; Bouwman, L.

    2010-01-01

    To demonstrate potential future consequences of land cover and land use changes beyond those for physical climate and the carbon cycle, we present an analysis of large-scale impacts of land cover and land use changes on atmospheric chemistry using the chemistry-climate model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy

  7. Understanding the transformation of climate futures. A conceptual framework illustrated with urban adaptation policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boezeman, D.F.

    2016-01-01

    Projects in which science-based futures are produced indicating the relevant impacts of climatic changes are proliferating, in tandem with the increasing attention for climate change adaptation. Constructionist science studies have put forward the concept of ‘co-production’ to understand how

  8. Regional scenarios of future climate change over southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tadross, M

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available In this chapter, the authors provide projections of regional climate change so that decision-makers can better understand the nature of the projected changes, and how to take this into account when formulating and implementing adaptive strategies....

  9. Future illumination systems and the climate change challenge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjarklev, Araceli; Bjarklev, Anders Overgaard

    2010-01-01

    are met in conjunction with situations, where the esthetical design issues are addressed. Finally, our study also points out to the necessity of finding a trans-disciplinary cooperation across sectors to more effectively answer to the climate change challenge, when designing low-carbon technologies...

  10. Consideration of future climatic changes in three geologic settings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petrie, G.M.

    1984-09-01

    Staff at Pacific Northwest Laboratory are evaluating the potential for climatic change to affect the integrity of a nuclear waste repository at: (1) the Gibson Dome area of Utah; (2) the Palo Duro Basin of Texas; and (3) the Gulf Coast. Because a major assumption in this analysis is that a glacial age will recur, the climate of the last glacial period is examined for each location. Combining these paleoclimatic data with the current climatic data, each location is evaluated in light of the criteria given in Draft Revised General Guidelines for Recommendation of Sites for Nuclear Waste Repositories (10 CFR 960). The results of this analysis suggest that sites located in these areas are likely to meet the climate requirements set forth in the guidelines. However, further study is needed before a definitive statement can be made. In particular, modeling the effect of sea level change on the Gulf Coast groundwater system and obtaining an improved estimation for the increase in recharge during glacier times at the Texas and Utah locations would be useful. Several stragegies are presented for accomplishing this work. 94 references, 27 figures, 5 tables

  11. simulation du climat futur et des rendements agricoles en region

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    REGION SOUDANO-SAHELIENNE EN REPUBLIQUE DU BENIN. S. KATE, O. TEKA1, ... La présente étude a été initiée pour déterminer les caractéristiques des rendements des principales ..... Climate change in cities due to global warming ...

  12. Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blenckner, Thorsten; Llope, Marcos; Möllmann, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socio-economic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree...... lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change....

  13. Madagascar's future climate change intensified actions and policy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    or business as usual? Jean-Roger MercierI ... reduce its 2030 emissions by 64% compared to the 'Business As ..... tion of work in the global, climate-conscious digital economy. ... business models for the development and delivery of physical goods and services. The potential for deploying ICTs for innovative products ...

  14. Climatic Change and the Future of the Human Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotlyakov, Vladimir M.

    1996-01-01

    Evaluates the latest glaciological and oceanological data and demonstrates a strict correlation between global changes of temperature and gas composition of the atmosphere over the last climatic cycle. Concludes that global warming may not create an environmental crisis but will alter drastically the life people lead. (MJP)

  15. Groundwater in a future climate : The CLIWAT Handbook

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Auken, Esben A.; Bosch, Aleid; Courtens, Carolien; Elderhorst, Wilbert; Euwe, Marieke; Gunnink, Jan; Hinsby, Klaus; Jansen, Joca; Johnsen, Rolf; Kok, Arjen; Lebbe, Luc; De Louw, Perry G.B.; Noorlandt, Rik; Oude Essink, Gualbert; Pedersen, Jes; Rasmussen, Per; Scheer, Wolfgang; Siemon, Bernhard; Sonnenborg, Torben; Sulzbacher, Hans; Ullmann, Angelika; Vandenbohede, Alex; Wiederhold, Helga

    2011-01-01

    This handbook is a product of the CLIWAT project (CLImate change and groundWATer) highlighting the main results and recommendations of the project for planners and practitioners at local, regional and national levels. CLIWAT is a transnational project in the North Sea region dealing with groundwater

  16. Optimization of Photovoltaic Electrolyzer Hybrid systems; taking into account the effect of climate conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sayedin, Farid; Maroufmashat, Azadeh; Sattari, Sourena; Elkamel, Ali; Fowler, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The optimal size of directly coupled Photovoltaic–Electrolyzer (PV/EL) is studied. • The effect of climate condition on the performance of PV/EL is studied. • PV/EL energy transfer loss and the levelized cost of hydrogen production minimized. • The model is applied to locations with different climate and solar irradiations. • Solar to electricity/electricity to hydrogen/solar to hydrogen efficiencies are derived. - Abstract: Solar energy will make a valuable contribution for power generation in the future. However the intermittency of solar energy has become an important issue in the utilization of PV system, especially small scale distributed solar energy conversion systems. The issue can be addressed through the management of production and storage of the energy in the form of hydrogen. The hydrogen can be produced by solar photovoltaic (PV) powered electrolysis of water. The amount of transferred energy to an electrolyzer from a PV module is a function of the distance between maximum power points (MPP) of PV module and the electrolyzer operating points. The distance can be minimized by optimizing the number of series and parallel units of the electrolyzer. However the maximum power points are subject to PV module characteristics, solar irradiation and ambient temperature. This means the climate condition can substantially influence the MPP and therefore the optimal size of the PV–Electrolyzer (PV/EL) system. On the other hand, system size can affect the levelized cost of hydrogen production as well. In this paper, the impact of climate conditions on the optimal size and operating conditions of a direct coupled photovoltaic–electrolyzer system has been studied. For this purpose, the optimal size of electrolyzer for six cities which have different climate condition is obtained by considering two solution scenarios, regarding two objectives which are annual energy transfer loss and levelized costs of hydrogen production and then the

  17. Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shabeh ul Hasson

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Future of the crucial Himalayan water supplies has generally been assessed under the anthropogenic warming, typically consistent amid observations and climate model projections. However, conflicting mid-to-late melt-season cooling within the upper Indus basin (UIB suggests that the future of its melt-dominated hydrological regime and the subsequent water availability under changing climate has yet been understood only indistinctly. Here, the future water availability from the UIB is presented under both observed and projected—though likely but contrasting—climate change scenarios. Continuation of prevailing climatic changes suggests decreased and delayed glacier melt but increased and early snowmelt, leading to reduction in the overall water availability and profound changes in the overall seasonality of the hydrological regime. Hence, initial increases in the water availability due to enhanced glacier melt under typically projected warmer climates, and then abrupt decrease upon vanishing of the glaciers, as reported earlier, is only true given the UIB starts following uniformly the global warming signal. Such discordant future water availability findings caution the impact assessment communities to consider the relevance of likely (near-future climate change scenarios—consistent to prevalent climatic change patterns—in order to adequately support the water resource planning in Pakistan.

  18. Climate Gamble. Is Anti-Nuclear Activism Endangering Our Future?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korhonen, Janne M.; Partanen, Rauli

    2016-01-01

    This short and easy to read book is a thought-provoking book on one of the biggest problems of our time, climate change, and one of its most misunderstood and misrepresented solution, nuclear power. Humankind has won many great victories in the fight against climate change. However, these victories are rarely acknowledged or reported. Is this because they were won with nuclear power? Preventing dangerous climate change requires world energy production to be almost completely free from fossil fuels by 2050. At the same time, energy consumption keeps growing, as the population increases and those mired in poverty try to create better lives for themselves. With almost 87 percent of our energy produced with fossil fuels, the challenge is unprecedented in both its scale and urgency. International organizations agree that meeting this challenge will require the use of all the tools at our disposal: Renewable energy, more energy conservation and better efficiency, carbon capture and storage - and nuclear power. At the same time, the global environment and energy discussion is largely dominated by a vocal opinion that climate challenge and global poverty should be conquered with nothing else than renewables, energy conservation and energy efficiency. This book explains how this opinion is largely based on very selective reading of relevant studies and reports, wishful thinking about the powers of technological miracles, and even straight-out falsification of statistics and misrepresentation of facts. Does the anti-nuclear movement really help to give people objective, relevant information they need to make up their minds about zero-carbon energy production, the scale of the challenge, and in particular the up- and downsides of nuclear power? Or are they just spreading fear and uncertainty, while making a huge gamble with the climate, potentially endangering both human civilization and the Earth's ecosystems?

  19. Estimation of the Source Apportionment of Phosphorus and Its Responses to Future Climate Changes Using Multi-Model Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Sha

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The eutrophication issue in the Yangtze Basin was considered, and the phosphorus loads from its tributary, the Modaoxi River, were estimated. The phosphorus flux and source apportionment of the Modaoxi River watershed were modeled and quantified, and their changes with respect to future projected climate scenarios were simulated with multiple model applications. The Regional Nutrient Management (ReNuMa model based on Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF was employed as a tool to model the hydrochemical processes of the watershed and thereby estimate the monthly streamflow and the phosphorus flux as well as its source apportionment. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG was used to predict future daily weather data through the statistical downscaling of the general circulation model (GCM outputs based on projected climate scenarios. The synthetic time series of daily precipitation and temperatures generated by LARS-WG were further used as input data for ReNuMa to estimate the responses of the watershed hydrochemical processes to future changed climate conditions. The results showed that both models could be successfully applied and that the future wetter and warmer climate trends would have generally positive impacts on the watershed phosphorus yields, with greater contributions coming from runoff. These results could provide valuable support for local water environmental management.

  20. Analysis of Compound Water Hazard in Coastal Urbanized Areas under the Future Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibuo, Y.; Taniguchi, K.; Sanuki, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Lee, S.; Tajima, Y.; Koike, T.; Furumai, H.; Sato, S.

    2017-12-01

    Several studies indicate the increased frequency and magnitude of heavy rainfalls as well as the sea level rise under the future climate, which implies that coastal low-lying urbanized areas may experience increased risk against flooding. In such areas, where river discharge, tidal fluctuation, and city drainage networks altogether influence urban inundation, it is necessary to consider their potential interference to understand the effect of compound water hazard. For instance, pump stations cannot pump out storm water when the river water level is high, and in the meantime the river water level shall increase when it receives pumped water from cities. At the further downstream, as the tidal fluctuation regulates the water levels in the river, it will also affect the functionality of pump stations and possible inundation from rivers. In this study, we estimate compound water hazard in the coastal low-lying urbanized areas of the Tsurumi river basin under the future climate. We developed the seamlessly integrated river, sewerage, and coastal hydraulic model that can simulate river water levels, water flow in sewerage network, and inundation from the rivers and/or the coast to address the potential interference issue. As a forcing, the pseudo global warming method, which applies the changes in GCM anomaly to re-analysis data, is employed to produce ensemble typhoons to drive the seamlessly integrated model. The results show that heavy rainfalls caused by the observed typhoon generally become stronger under the pseudo global climate condition. It also suggests that the coastal low-lying areas become extensively inundated if the onset of river flooding and storm surge coincides.

  1. Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendriks, Carlijn; Forsell, Nicklas; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Schaap, Martijn; Schöpp, Wolfgang

    2016-11-01

    Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly isoprene) may increase significantly in the coming decades if short-rotation coppice plantations are expanded strongly to meet the increased biofuel demand resulting from the EU decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the competing effects of anticipated trends in land use change, anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions and climate change on European ground level ozone concentrations and related health and environmental impacts until 2050. The work is based on a consistent set of energy consumption scenarios that underlie current EU climate and air quality policy proposals: a current legislation case, and an ambitious decarbonisation case. The Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model was used to calculate air pollutant emissions for these scenarios, while land use change because of bioenergy demand was calculated by the Global Biosphere Model (GLOBIOM). These datasets were fed into the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to calculate the impact on ground level ozone concentrations. Health damage because of high ground level ozone concentrations is projected to decline significantly towards 2030 and 2050 under current climate conditions for both energy scenarios. Damage to plants is also expected to decrease but to a smaller extent. The projected change in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions is found to have a larger impact on ozone damage than land use change. The increasing effect of a warming climate (+2-5 °C across Europe in summer) on ozone concentrations and associated health damage, however, might be higher than the reduction achieved by cutting back European ozone precursor emissions. Global

  2. Climate change, renewable energy and population impact on future energy demand for Burkina Faso build environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouedraogo, B. I.

    This research addresses the dual challenge faced by Burkina Faso engineers to design sustainable low-energy cost public buildings and domestic dwellings while still providing the required thermal comfort under warmer temperature conditions caused by climate change. It was found base don climate change SRES scenario A2 that predicted mean temperature in Burkina Faso will increase by 2oC between 2010 and 2050. Therefore, in order to maintain a thermally comfortable 25oC inside public buildings, the projected annual energy consumption for cooling load will increase by 15%, 36% and 100% respectively for the period between 2020 to 2039, 2040 to 2059 and 2070 to 2089 when compared to the control case. It has also been found that a 1% increase in population growth will result in a 1.38% and 2.03% increase in carbon emission from primary energy consumption and future electricity consumption respectively. Furthermore, this research has investigated possible solutions for adaptation to the severe climate change and population growth impact on energy demand in Burkina Faso. Shading devices could potentially reduce the cooling load by up to 40%. Computer simulation programming of building energy consumption and a field study has shown that adobe houses have the potential of significantly reducing energy demand for cooling and offer a formidable method for climate change adaptation. Based on the Net Present Cost, hybrid photovoltaic (PV) and Diesel generator energy production configuration is the most cost effective local electricity supply system, for areas without electricity at present, with a payback time of 8 years when compared to diesel generator stand-alone configuration. It is therefore a viable solution to increase electricity access to the majority of the population.

  3. Under which climate and soil conditions the plant productivity-precipitation relationship is linear or nonlinear?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Jian-Sheng; Pei, Jiu-Ying; Fang, Chao

    2018-03-01

    Understanding under which climate and soil conditions the plant productivity-precipitation relationship is linear or nonlinear is useful for accurately predicting the response of ecosystem function to global environmental change. Using long-term (2000-2016) net primary productivity (NPP)-precipitation datasets derived from satellite observations, we identify >5600pixels in the North Hemisphere landmass that fit either linear or nonlinear temporal NPP-precipitation relationships. Differences in climate (precipitation, radiation, ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration, temperature) and soil factors (nitrogen, phosphorous, organic carbon, field capacity) between the linear and nonlinear types are evaluated. Our analysis shows that both linear and nonlinear types exhibit similar interannual precipitation variabilities and occurrences of extreme precipitation. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance suggests that linear and nonlinear types differ significantly regarding to radiation, ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration, and soil factors. The nonlinear type possesses lower radiation and/or less soil nutrients than the linear type, thereby suggesting that nonlinear type features higher degree of limitation from resources other than precipitation. This study suggests several factors limiting the responses of plant productivity to changes in precipitation, thus causing nonlinear NPP-precipitation pattern. Precipitation manipulation and modeling experiments should combine with changes in other climate and soil factors to better predict the response of plant productivity under future climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoekstra, J [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

  5. Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    . The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate......More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level...... and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level...

  6. Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoekstra, J. [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

  7. Assessing the Impacts of Atmospheric Conditions under Climate Change on Air Quality Profile over Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hei Tong, Cheuk

    2017-04-01

    Small particulates can cause long term impairment to human health as they can penetrate deep and deposit on the wall of the respiratory system. Under the projected climate change as reported by literature, atmospheric stability, which has strong effects on vertical mixing of air pollutants and thus air quality Hong Kong, is also varying from near to far future. In addition to domestic emission, Hong Kong receives also significant concentration of cross-boundary particulates that their natures and movements are correlated with atmospheric condition. This study aims to study the relation of atmospheric conditions with air quality over Hong Kong. Past meteorological data is based on Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis data. Radiosonde data provided from HKO are also adopted in testing and validating the data. Future meteorological data is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), which dynamically downscaled the past and future climate under the A1B scenario simulated by ECHAM5/MPIOM. Air quality data is collected on one hand from the ground station data provided by Environment Protection Department, with selected stations revealing local emission and trans-boundary emission respectively. On the other hand, an Atmospheric Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), which operates using the radar principle to detect Rayleigh and Mie scattering from atmospheric gas and aerosols, has also been adopted to measure vertical aerosol profile, which has been observed tightly related to the high level meteorology. Data from scattered signals are collected, averaged or some episode selected for characteristic comparison with the atmospheric stability indices and other meteorological factors. The relation between atmospheric conditions and air quality is observed by statistical analysis, and statistical models are built based on the stability indices to project the changes in sulphur dioxide, ozone and particulate

  8. SAGES climate survey: results and strategic planning for our future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telem, Dana A; Qureshi, Alia; Edwards, Michael; Jones, Daniel B

    2018-03-30

    While SAGES prides itself on diversity and inclusivity, we also recognize that as an organization we are not impervious to blind spots impacting equity within the membership. To address this, the We R Sages task force was formed to identify the barriers and facilitators to creating a diverse organization and develop a strategic plan for the implementation of programing and opportunities that promote diversity and inclusivity within our membership. As the first step in the process, a survey was administered to gauge the current organizational climate. In September of 2017, a validated climate survey was administered to 704 SAGES committee members via SurveyMonkey®. Climate was assessed on: overall SAGES experience, consideration of leaving the organization, mentorship within the organization, resources and opportunities within the organization, and attitudes and experiences within the organization. Additional free text responses were encouraged to generate qualitative themes. The survey response rate was 52.1% (n = 367). Respondent self-identified demographics were: male (73%), white (63%), heterosexual (95.5%), and non-disabled (98%). Average overall satisfaction was 8.1/10. 12.5% of respondents had considered leaving the organization and 74.4% had not identified a formal mentor within the organization. Average agreement with equitable distribution of resources and opportunities was 5.8/10. 93.6% of respondents had not experienced bias within the organization. Overall SAGES has a very positive climate; however, several key issues were identified from the quantitative survey as well as the free text responses. Strategic planning to address issues of membership recruitment, committee engagement, advancement transparency, diversity awareness, leadership development, and formal mentorship are being implemented.

  9. Communicating Climate Science: A Historic Look to the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, James; Andronova, Natasha; Rasch, Philip

    2014-06-01

    The June 2013 Chapman Conference brought together a diverse group of researchers, educators, and media for 5 days in Colorado to explore how to better communicate climate science. Multidisciplinary thinking was a key theme of the meeting. Participant expertise included urban planning, science, psychology, philosophy, history, film and documentary production, communications, journalism, public relations, and business. All helped to create a stimulating and inspirational atmosphere. The meeting program accommodated almost 100 submitted abstracts.

  10. Energy and climate. A vision of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brand, Hans; Hosemann, Gerhard; Riedle, Klaus

    2013-01-01

    This book contains five lectures from the symposium of 8 November 2012. The topics and speakers were: 1. The energy turnaround in Germany - Chances and risks (DIETHARD MAGER); 2. The power supply from renewable sources and their constraints (GERHARD HEROLD); 3. What really contributes CO 2 to global warming? (HERMANN HARDE); 4. Sun and greenhouse gas - causes of climate change (FRITZ VAHRENHOLT); 5. The hydrocarbon-cycle management - secure energy and resource supply from renewable energy sources (DOMINIK ROHRMUS). [de

  11. Development of streamflow projections under changing climate conditions over Colorado River basin headwaters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. P. Miller

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The current drought over the Colorado River Basin has raised concerns that the US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation may impose water shortages over the lower portion of the basin for the first time in history. The guidelines that determine levels of shortage are affected by relatively short-term (3 to 7 month forecasts determined by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC using the National Weather Service (NWS River Forecasting System (RFS hydrologic model. While these forecasts by the CBRFC are useful, water managers within the basin are interested in long-term projections of streamflow, particularly under changing climate conditions. In this study, a bias-corrected, statistically downscaled dataset of projected climate is used to force the NWS RFS utilized by the CBRFC to derive projections of streamflow over the Green, Gunnison, and San Juan River headwater basins located within the Colorado River Basin. This study evaluates the impact of changing climate to evapotranspiration rates and contributes to a better understanding of how hydrologic processes change under varying climate conditions. The impact to evapotranspiration rates is taken into consideration and incorporated into the development of streamflow projections over Colorado River headwater basins in this study. Additionally, the NWS RFS is modified to account for impacts to evapotranspiration due to changing temperature over the basin. Adjusting evapotranspiration demands resulted in a 6 % to 13 % average decrease in runoff over the Gunnison River Basin when compared to static evapotranspiration rates. Streamflow projections derived using projections of future climate and the NWS RFS provided by the CBRFC resulted in decreased runoff in 2 of the 3 basins considered. Over the Gunnison and San Juan River basins, a 10 % to 15 % average decrease in basin runoff is projected through the year 2099. However, over the Green River basin, a 5 % to 8

  12. Engineering a future for amphibians under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoo, L.P.; Olson, D.H.; Mcmenamin, S.K.; Murray, K.A.; Van Sluys, M.; Donnelly, M.A.; Stratford, D.; Terhivuo, J.; Merino-Viteri, A.; Herbert, S.M.; Bishop, P.J.; Corn, P.S.; Dovey, L.; Griffiths, R.A.; Lowe, K.; Mahony, M.; McCallum, H.; Shuker, J.D.; Simpkins, C.; Skerratt, L.F.; Williams, S.E.; Hero, J.-M.

    2011-01-01

    1. Altered global climates in the 21st century pose serious threats for biological systems and practical actions are needed to mount a response for species at risk. 2. We identify management actions from across the world and from diverse disciplines that are applicable to minimizing loss of amphibian biodiversity under climate change. Actions were grouped under three thematic areas of intervention: (i) installation of microclimate and microhabitat refuges; (ii) enhancement and restoration of breeding sites; and (iii) manipulation of hydroperiod or water levels at breeding sites. 3. Synthesis and applications. There are currently few meaningful management actions that will tangibly impact the pervasive threat of climate change on amphibians. A host of potentially useful but poorly tested actions could be incorporated into local or regional management plans, programmes and activities for amphibians. Examples include: installation of irrigation sprayers to manipulate water potentials at breeding sites; retention or supplementation of natural and artificial shelters (e.g. logs, cover boards) to reduce desiccation and thermal stress; manipulation of canopy cover over ponds to reduce water temperature; and, creation of hydrologoically diverse wetland habitats capable of supporting larval development under variable rainfall regimes. We encourage researchers and managers to design, test and scale up new initiatives to respond to this emerging crisis.

  13. Sugar beet growth in a changing climate: past, present and future trends in southwest Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremer, Pascal; Fuchs, Hans-Joachim; Lang, Christian

    2017-04-01

    In the study, single factors and their impact on sugar beet cultivation against the background of past and projected climate change are being analyzed. The database consists of climate data by the German Weather Service and 1x1 km interpolated INTERMET raster data. Impact models were run to assess possible future trends using climate projection data of the REgional MOdel (REMO), emission scenario A1B, Run 1, data stream 2 for Germany, daily resolution, without bias correction, 10x10 km raster (n=150) (MPI on behalf of UBA 2006). Compared periods were: B:1971 2000; K:2021-2050; L:2071-2100. Agronomic data were collected from the field books of regional trials from 1974 2014 (n=448). Moreover, a business survey of regional farmers was carried out and evaluated. Impact models to predict timing for sowing, the date of field emergence and row closure, were derived from these data. The ontogenesis was simulated using a linear, temperature-based leaf-growth model. Sowing shifted forward by 7,3 days in regional field trials from 1974 2014. Progress-oriented, risk-tolerant farmers start sowing 10-14 days earlier compared to 1980. Recently, sowing is being conducted on average on 21 March in southwest Germany. For period K, 17 March, and for period L, 2 March is being projected as the average future sowing date while the same late frost risk applies compared to present climatic conditions. Shifting forward the sowing date with spring warming and, thus, exploiting the associated yield potential is the most promising agronomic adaptation strategy to the projected climate change on the farm level. In connection to earlier sowing, the field emergence tendentially shifted forward by 14 days in the field trials. Assuming sowing on 15 March, projection results show an advance of field emergence form 7 April in period B to 3 April in period L. Row closure in field trials in average shifted forward by 19,6 days. For period L, 29 May and thus, an earlier row closure of 9 days compared

  14. Regional scenarios of future climate change over southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, F

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available positive chill units. 31 Winter (Apr - Sep) CASE STUDY - Global change impacts on agriculture and water: South Africa?s Garden Route 33 7 Global change and human health 35 CASE STUDY - Environmental health: Bridging the gap between traditional... days). Annual (Jan - Dec) 31 Map 6.2 Intermediate future - present (degree days). Accumulated heat units. 31 Annual (Jan - Dec) Map 6.3 Accumulated positive chill units. Winter (Apr - Sep) 31 Map 6.4 Intermediate future - present. Accumulated...

  15. Climate and oceanic fisheries: recent observations and projections and future needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salinger, M.J.; Bell, Johan D.; Evans, Karen

    2013-01-01

    Several lines of evidence show that climatic variation and global warming can have a major effect on fisheries production and replenishment. To prevent overfishing and rebuild overfished stocks under changing and uncertain environmental conditions, new research partnerships between fisheries scie...... scientists and climate change experts are required. The International Workshop on Climate and Oceanic Fisheries held in Rarotonga, Cook Islands, 3–5......Several lines of evidence show that climatic variation and global warming can have a major effect on fisheries production and replenishment. To prevent overfishing and rebuild overfished stocks under changing and uncertain environmental conditions, new research partnerships between fisheries...

  16. Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudeepkumar, B. L.; Babu, C. A.; Varikoden, Hamza

    2018-02-01

    The effect of global climate change on Indian summer monsoon has been analysed with special emphasis on active-break cycle. The changes in intensity and duration of active and break monsoon conditions towards the end of the century are studied by using 850 hPa zonal circulations. The analysis is carried out using twenty year climatology of historical period (1986-2005) and future projections (2080-2099) simulated as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Models are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The models that effectively capture the circulation pattern of monsoon (JJAS) are considered for assessing the future climate in RCP 4.5 scenario. They are CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. During the southwest monsoon period, the ensemble mean of models projects a strengthening of the wind speed towards north (north of 15°N) and weakening to the southern region (especially south of 12°N) which facilitates wetting of northern Indian regions and drying of southern peninsular regions. In the case of active-break conditions, the active spells are found to be strengthening over northern India and weakening over the peninsular India, the break spells intensify over southern tip of peninsular India indicating intense breaks. Increased propensity of short intense active days and decreased propensity of long active days are also projected by the models. The number of break spells does not show any significant changes.

  17. Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jianping; Zhao, Junfang; Xu, Yanhong; Chu, Zheng; Mu, Jia; Zhao, Qian

    Quantitatively evaluating the effects of adjusting cropping systems on the utilization efficiency of climatic resources under climate change is an important task for assessing food security in China. To understand these effects, we used daily climate variables obtained from the regional climate model RegCM3 from 1981 to 2100 under the A1B scenario and crop observations from 53 agro-meteorological experimental stations from 1981 to 2010 in Northeast China. Three one-grade zones of cropping systems were divided by heat, water, topography and crop-type, including the semi-arid areas of the northeast and northwest (III), the one crop area of warm-cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly regions of the northeast (IV), and the two crop area in irrigated farmland in the Huanghuaihai Plain (VI). An agro-ecological zone model was used to calculate climatic potential productivities. The effects of adjusting cropping systems on climate resource utilization in Northeast China under the A1B scenario were assessed. The results indicated that from 1981 to 2100 in the III, IV and VI areas, the planting boundaries of different cropping systems in Northeast China obviously shifted toward the north and the east based on comprehensively considering the heat and precipitation resources. However, due to high temperature stress, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize was reduced in the future. Therefore, adjusting the cropping system is an effective way to improve the climatic potential productivity and climate resource utilization. Replacing the one crop in one year model (spring maize) by the two crops in one year model (winter wheat and summer maize) significantly increased the total climatic potential productivity and average utilization efficiencies. During the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, the average total climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize increased by 9.36%, 11.88% and 12.13% compared to that of spring maize

  18. Chemical conditions in present and future ecosystems in Forsmark - implications for selected radionuclides in the safety assessment SR-Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Troejbom, Mats; Grolander, Sara

    2010-12-01

    This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to describe the future development of the chemical conditions at Forsmark, based on the present chemical conditions at landscape level taking landscape development and climate cases into consideration. The results presented contribute to the overall understanding of the present and future chemistry in the Forsmark area, and specifically, to the understanding of the behaviour of some selected radionuclides in the surface system. The future development of the chemistry at the site is qualitatively discussed with focus on the interglacial within the next 10,000 years. The effects on the chemical environment of future climate cases as Global Warming and cold permafrost climates are also briefly discussed. The work is presented in two independent parts describing background radionuclide activities in the Forsmark area and the distribution and behaviour of a large number of stable elements in the landscape. In a concluding section, implications of the future chemical environment of a selection of radionuclides important in the Safety Assessment are discussed based on the knowledge of stable elements. The broad range of elements studied show that there are general and expected patterns for the distribution and behaviour in the landscape of different groups of elements. Mass balances reveal major sources and sinks, pool estimations show where elements are accumulated in the landscape and estimations of time-scales give indications of the potential future development. This general knowledge is transferred to radionuclides not measured in order to estimate their behaviour and distribution in the landscape. It could be concluded that the future development of the chemical environment in the Forsmark area might affect element specific parameters used in de radionuclide model in different directions depending on element. The alternative climate cases, Global Warming

  19. Chemical conditions in present and future ecosystems in Forsmark - implications for selected radionuclides in the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Troejbom, Mats (Mats Troejbom Konsult AB (Sweden)); Grolander, Sara (Facilia AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    This report is a background report for the biosphere analysis of the SR-Site Safety Assessment. This work aims to describe the future development of the chemical conditions at Forsmark, based on the present chemical conditions at landscape level taking landscape development and climate cases into consideration. The results presented contribute to the overall understanding of the present and future chemistry in the Forsmark area, and specifically, to the understanding of the behaviour of some selected radionuclides in the surface system. The future development of the chemistry at the site is qualitatively discussed with focus on the interglacial within the next 10,000 years. The effects on the chemical environment of future climate cases as Global Warming and cold permafrost climates are also briefly discussed. The work is presented in two independent parts describing background radionuclide activities in the Forsmark area and the distribution and behaviour of a large number of stable elements in the landscape. In a concluding section, implications of the future chemical environment of a selection of radionuclides important in the Safety Assessment are discussed based on the knowledge of stable elements. The broad range of elements studied show that there are general and expected patterns for the distribution and behaviour in the landscape of different groups of elements. Mass balances reveal major sources and sinks, pool estimations show where elements are accumulated in the landscape and estimations of time-scales give indications of the potential future development. This general knowledge is transferred to radionuclides not measured in order to estimate their behaviour and distribution in the landscape. It could be concluded that the future development of the chemical environment in the Forsmark area might affect element specific parameters used in de radionuclide model in different directions depending on element. The alternative climate cases, Global Warming

  20. Simulating runoff under changing climatic conditions: Revisiting an apparent deficiency of conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Keirnan J. A.; Peel, Murray C.; Western, Andrew W.; Zhang, Lu; Peterson, Tim J.

    2016-03-01

    Hydrologic models have potential to be useful tools in planning for future climate variability. However, recent literature suggests that the current generation of conceptual rainfall runoff models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of runoff to a given change in rainfall, leading to poor performance when evaluated over multiyear droughts. This research revisited this conclusion, investigating whether the observed poor performance could be due to insufficient model calibration and evaluation techniques. We applied an approach based on Pareto optimality to explore trade-offs between model performance in different climatic conditions. Five conceptual rainfall runoff model structures were tested in 86 catchments in Australia, for a total of 430 Pareto analyses. The Pareto results were then compared with results from a commonly used model calibration and evaluation method, the Differential Split Sample Test. We found that the latter often missed potentially promising parameter sets within a given model structure, giving a false negative impression of the capabilities of the model. This suggests that models may be more capable under changing climatic conditions than previously thought. Of the 282[347] cases of apparent model failure under the split sample test using the lower [higher] of two model performance criteria trialed, 155[120] were false negatives. We discuss potential causes of remaining model failures, including the role of data errors. Although the Pareto approach proved useful, our aim was not to suggest an alternative calibration strategy, but to critically assess existing methods of model calibration and evaluation. We recommend caution when interpreting split sample results.

  1. Quantifying Direct and Indirect Impact of Future Climate on Sub-Arctic Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endalamaw, A. M.; Bolton, W. R.; Young-Robertson, J. M.; Morton, D.; Hinzman, L. D.

    2016-12-01

    Projected future climate will have a significant impact on the hydrology of interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds, directly though the changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, and indirectly through the cryospheric and ecological impacts. Although the latter is the dominant factor controlling the hydrological processes in the interior Alaska sub-arctic, it is often overlooked in many climate change impact studies. In this study, we aim to quantify and compare the direct and indirect impact of the projected future climate on the hydrology of the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) meso-scale hydrological model will be implemented to simulate the hydrological processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture dynamics in the Chena River Basin (area = 5400km2), located in the interior Alaska sub-arctic region. Permafrost and vegetation distribution will be derived from the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Model (LPJ) model, respectively. All models will be calibrated and validated using historical data. The Scenario Network for Alaskan and Arctic Planning (SNAP) 5-model average projected climate data products will be used as forcing data for each of these models. The direct impact of climate change on hydrology is estimated using surface parameterization derived from the present day permafrost and vegetation distribution, and future climate forcing from SNAP projected climate data products. Along with the projected future climate, outputs of GIPL and LPJ will be incorporated into the VIC model to estimate the indirect and overall impact of future climate on the hydrology processes in the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. Finally, we will present the potential hydrological and ecological changes by the end of the 21st century.

  2. Evaluation of the applicability in the future climate of a statistical downscaling method in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayon, G.; Boé, J.; Martin, E.

    2013-12-01

    The uncertainties in climate projections during the next decades generally remain large, with an important contribution of internal climate variability. To quantify and capture the impact of those uncertainties in impact projections, multi-model and multi-member approaches are essential. Statistical downscaling (SD) methods are computationally inexpensive allowing for large ensemble approaches. The main weakness of SD is that it relies on a stationarity hypothesis, namely that the statistical relation established in the present climate remains valid in the climate change context. In this study, the evaluation of SD methods developed for a future study of hydrological changes during the next decades over France is presented, focusing on precipitation. The SD methods are all based on the analogs method which is quite simple to set up and permits to easily test different combinations of predictors, the only changing parameter in the methods discussed in this presentation. The basic idea of the analogs method is that for a same large scale climatic state, the state of local variables will be identical. In a climate change context, the statistical relation established on past climate is assumed to remain valid in the future climate. In practice, this stationarity assumption is impossible to verify until the future climate is effectively observed. It is possible to evaluate the ability of SD methods to reproduce the interannual variability in the present climate, but this approach does not guarantee their validity in the future climate as the mechanisms that play in the interannual and climate change contexts may not be identical. Another common approach is to test whether a SD method is able to reproduce observed, as they may be partly caused by climate changes. The observed trends in precipitation are compared to those obtained by downscaling 4 different atmospheric reanalyses with analogs methods. The uncertainties in downscaled trends due to renalyses are very large

  3. Potential future risk of cholera due to climate change in northern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cholera is one of the infectious diseases that remains a major health burden in West-Africa and especially in Nigeria. Several studies have raised concern that climate change may exacerbate the risk of the disease in the future. Projecting the future risk of this disease is essential, especially for regions where the projected ...

  4. Icing Conditions Over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulygina, O.; Arzhanova, N.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2013-12-01

    Climate of the Russian Federation for the national territory. This Reference Book addresses the current state of these weather phenomena. However, the ongoing and projected humidity changes in the high latitudes will strongly affect the circum-polar area (land and ocean) and impact the frequency and intensity of these potentially dangerous weather phenomena across the entire extratropical land area. Therefore the goal of the present study is to quantify icing conditions over the northern Eurasia. Our analysis includes data of 958 Russian stations from 1977 to 2012. Regional analysis of gololed characteristics was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. The area-averaging technique using station values converted to anomalies with respect to a common reference period (in this study, from 1977 to 2012). Anomalies were arithmetically averaged first within 1N x 2E grid cells and thereafter by a weighted average value derived over the quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. This approach provides a more uniform spatial field for averaging.

  5. Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a review of modelling challenges and open questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefli, Bettina

    2015-04-01

    Hydropower is a pillar for renewable electricity production in almost all world regions. The planning horizon of major hydropower infrastructure projects stretches over several decades and consideration of evolving climatic conditions plays an ever increasing role. This review of model-based climate change impact assessments provides a synthesis of the wealth of underlying modelling assumptions, highlights the importance of local factors and attempts to identify the most urgent open questions. Based on existing case studies, it critically discusses whether current hydro-climatic modelling frameworks are likely to provide narrow enough water scenario ranges to be included into economic analyses for end-to-end climate change impact assessments including electricity market models. This will be completed with an overview of not or indirectly climate-related boundary conditions, such as economic growth, legal constraints, national subsidy frameworks or growing competition for water, which might locally largely outweigh any climate change impacts.

  6. Synergistic impacts of deforestation, climate change and fire on the future biomes distribution in Amazonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaio, G.; Cardoso, M. F.; Nobre, C. A.; Salazar, L. F.

    2013-05-01

    Several studies indicate future increase of environmental risks for the ecosystems in the Amazon region as a result of climate and land-use change, and their synergistic interactions. Modeling studies (e.g. Oyama and Nobre 2004, Salazar et al. 2007, Malhi et al. 2008) project rapid and irreversible replacement of forests by savannas with large-scale losses of biodiversity and livelihoods for people in the region. This process is referred to as the Amazon Dieback, where accelerated plant mortality due to environmental changes lead to forest collapse and savannas expansion after "tipping points" in climate and land surface changes are achieved. In this study we performed new analyses to quantify how deforestation, climate change and fire may combine to affect the distribution of major biomes in Amazonia. Changes in land use consider deforestation scenarios of 0%, 20%, 40%, and 50% (Sampaio et al., 2007), with and without fires (Cardoso et al., 2008), under the two greenhouse gases scenarios B1 and A2 and three "representative concentration pathways" (RCPs): 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, for years 2015-2034 and 2040-2059 ("2025" and "2050" time-slices), from IPCC AR4 and CMIP5. The results show that the area affected in scenarios A2 and RCP 8.5 is larger than in the climate scenario B1 and RCP 2.6, and in both cases the effect is progressively higher in time. Most important changes occur in the East and South of the Amazon, with replacement of tropical forest by seasonal forest and savanna. The effect of fire in this region is important in all scenarios. The Northwest Amazon presents the smallest changes in the area of tropical forest, indicating that even for substantial land-use modifications and global climate change, the resulting atmospheric conditions would still support tropical forest in the region. In summary, we conclude that the synergistic combination of deforestation, climate change resulting from global warming, and the potential for higher fire occurrence may lead

  7. Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Shindell

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP examined the short-lived drivers of climate change in current climate models. Here we evaluate the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5. The models reproduce present-day total aerosol optical depth (AOD relatively well, though many are biased low. Contributions from individual aerosol components are quite different, however, and most models underestimate east Asian AOD. The models capture most 1980–2000 AOD trends well, but underpredict increases over the Yellow/Eastern Sea. They strongly underestimate absorbing AOD in many regions. We examine both the direct radiative forcing (RF and the forcing including rapid adjustments (effective radiative forcing; ERF, including direct and indirect effects. The models' all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average total aerosol RF is (mean; range −0.26 W m−2; −0.06 to −0.49 W m−2. Screening based on model skill in capturing observed AOD yields a best estimate of −0.42 W m−2; −0.33 to −0.50 W m−2, including adjustment for missing aerosol components in some models. Many ACCMIP and CMIP5 models appear to produce substantially smaller aerosol RF than this best estimate. Climate feedbacks contribute substantially (35 to −58% to modeled historical aerosol RF. The 1850 to 2000 aerosol ERF is −1.17 W m−2; −0.71 to −1.44 W m−2. Thus adjustments, including clouds, typically cause greater forcing than direct RF. Despite this, the multi-model spread relative to the mean is typically the same for ERF as it is for RF, or even smaller, over areas with substantial forcing. The largest 1850 to 2000 negative aerosol RF and ERF values are over and near Europe, south and east Asia and North America. ERF, however, is positive over the Sahara, the Karakoram, high Southern latitudes and especially the Arctic. Global aerosol RF

  8. Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shindell, D. T.; Lamarque, J. -F.; Schulz, M.; Flanner, M.; Jiao, C.; Chin, M.; Young, P. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Rotstayn, L.; Mahowald, N.; Milly, G.; Faluvegi, G.; Balkanski, Y.; Collins, W. J.; Conley, A. J.; Dalsoren, S.; Easter, R.; Ghan, S.; Horowitz, L.; Liu, X.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S. T.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Takemura, T.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yoon, J. -H.; Lo, F.

    2013-01-01

    The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) examined the short-lived drivers of climate change in current climate models. Here we evaluate the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The models reproduce present-day total aerosol optical depth (AOD) relatively well, though many are biased low. Contributions from individual aerosol components are quite different, however, and most models underestimate east Asian AOD. The models capture most 1980-2000 AOD trends well, but underpredict increases over the Yellow/Eastern Sea. They strongly underestimate absorbing AOD in many regions. We examine both the direct radiative forcing (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (effective radiative forcing; ERF, including direct and indirect effects). The models’ all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average total aerosol RF is (mean; range) -0.26Wm-2-2. Screening based on model skill in capturing observed AOD yields a best estimate of -0.42Wm-2-2Climate feedbacks contribute substantially (35 to -58 %) to modeled historical aerosol RF. The 1850 to 2000 aerosol ERF is -1.17Wm-2-2

  9. Future weather types and their influence on mean and extreme climate indices for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulf Riediger

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In Central Europe, the spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation and temperature are determined by the occurrence of major weather types. In this paper, we examine climate indices (i.e. mean values or hot, cold, wet and dry days for different weather types in a recent (1971–2000 and future climate (2070–2099. The weather types are classified objectively for the control run and for the A1B scenario with an ensemble of eight global climate simulations (GCM to be compared with different reanalyses. To derive climate indices, the high-resolution, regionalized reference dataset HYRAS and an ensemble of nine regional climate simulations (RCM are used. Firstly, the reliability of simulated weather patterns and their climate indices are tested in the control period. The reanalyses circulation climatology can be reproduced well by the GCM ensemble mean. For temperature and precipitation, each climate index is characterized and evaluated in terms of defined weather patterns. The comparison of HYRAS and RCM data show reliable mean temperature values with differences between weather classes by +2$+2$ to -6$-6$ °C during winter (13 to 19 °C in summer. The analysis of observed and simulated precipitation reveal that mean winter precipitation is significantly influenced by the direction of air flow, while in summer, mesoscale atmospheric patterns of cyclonic rotation play a larger role. Secondly, the analysis of potential future changes simulated by the RCM ensemble were able to demonstrate that weather type changes, superior climate trends (such as mean warming and their interaction lead to major changes for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe. While temperature differences between cold and warm weather types are nearly stable over time, the ensemble temperature changes (with a range of +2$+2$ to +4$+4$ °C reinforce warm/hot conditions in the future winter and summer. Milder, wetter winters can be explained by an increased

  10. Exergy characteristics of a ceiling-type residential air conditioning system operating under different climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ozbek, Arif [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Ceyhan Engineering Faculty, Cukurova University, Adana (Turkmenistan)

    2016-11-15

    In this study an energy and exergy analysis of a Ceiling-type residential air conditioning (CTRAC) system operating under different climatic conditions have been investigated for provinces within the different geographic regions of Turkey. Primarily, the hourly cooling load capacities of a sample building (Q{sub evap}) during the months of April, May, June, July, August and September were determined. The hourly total heat gain of the sample building was determined using the Hourly analysis program (HAP). The Coefficient of performance (COP), exergy efficiency (η) and exergy destruction (Ex{sub dest}) values for the whole system and for each component were obtained. The results showed that lower atmospheric temperature (T{sub atm}) influenced the performance of the system and each of its components.

  11. Species distributions and climate change - linking the past and the future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levinsky, Irina

    Climate change is predicted to have a marked impact on biodiversity, and changes in the distributions of numerous species have already been correlated with ongoing climate change. Climatic oscillations, however, were also the rule during the Pleistocene, and a look to the past may therefore shed ...... conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum, explore surrogates for the dispersal ability of African starlings and critically assess the tools I use and the assumptions behind them....

  12. Operational approaches to managing forests of the future in Mediterranean regions within a context of changing climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephens, Scott L; Millar, Constance I; Collins, Brandon M

    2010-01-01

    Many US forest managers have used historical ecology information to assist in the development of desired conditions. While there are many important lessons to learn from the past, we believe that we cannot rely on past forest conditions to provide us with blueprints for future management. To respond to this uncertainty, managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies into plans in response to changing climates. Adaptive strategies include resistance options, resilience options, response options, and realignment options. Our objectives are to present ideas that could be useful in developing plans under changing climates that could be applicable to forests with Mediterranean climates. We believe that managing for species persistence at the broad ecoregion scale is the most appropriate goal when considering the effects of changing climates. Such a goal relaxes expectations that current species ranges will remain constant, or that population abundances, distribution, species compositions and dominances should remain stable. Allowing fundamental ecosystem processes to operate within forested landscapes will be critical. Management and political institutions will have to acknowledge and embrace uncertainty in the future since we are moving into a time period with few analogs and inevitably, there will be surprises.

  13. Climate change and the oceans--what does the future hold?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bijma, Jelle; Pörtner, Hans-O; Yesson, Chris; Rogers, Alex D

    2013-09-30

    The ocean has been shielding the earth from the worst effects of rapid climate change by absorbing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This absorption of CO2 is driving the ocean along the pH gradient towards more acidic conditions. At the same time ocean warming is having pronounced impacts on the composition, structure and functions of marine ecosystems. Warming, freshening (in some areas) and associated stratification are driving a trend in ocean deoxygenation, which is being enhanced in parts of the coastal zone by upwelling of hypoxic deep water. The combined impact of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are already having a dramatic effect on the flora and fauna of the oceans with significant changes in distribution of populations, and decline of sensitive species. In many cases, the impacts of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are increased by the effects of other human impacts, such as pollution, eutrophication and overfishing. The interactive effects of this deadly trio mirrors similar events in the Earth's past, which were often coupled with extinctions of major species' groups. Here we review the observed impacts and, using past episodes in the Earth's history, set out what the future may hold if carbon emissions and climate change are not significantly reduced with more or less immediate effect. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Influence of the North Atlantic oceanograghic and climatic parameters on the Spanish European Eel population recruitment: relationships in the past and for a future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribalaygua, Jaime; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert; Díaz, Estíbaliz; Korta, María; Chust, Guillem

    2016-04-01

    The status of the European eel population is critical.; the annual recruitment of glass eel to European waters in 2015 is 1.2% of the 1960-1979 level in the 'North Sea' area, and 8.4% in the rest of Europe (ICES 2015) . There are a number of anthropogenic impacts potentially affecting eel population including commercial exploitation, habitat loss, dam and weir construction, hydropower, pumping stations and surface water abstractions. Furthermore, the first eel stages and larval migration and marine survival are heavily influenced by oceanic and climatic factors since the species breeds in the Sargasso Sea and migrates to the continental shelf of the Atlantic coast of Europe and North Africa. Therefore, the study of the relations between recruitment and oceanic conditions may allow to study the potential effect of climatic change on the future eel recruitment and therefore stock. In the present study, the relation between glass eel recruitment and oceanic and climatic factors has been studied. Historic glass eel catches data beginning in the 50s from two Mediterranean and two Atlantic estuaries have been used as a proxy of recruitment. The relation of catches with the main oceanographic and climatic factors identified in the literature was established using an ocean reanalysis, the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) and determined which variables are significantly related to the number of catches. The analysis shows significant relationships between catches and oceanic (Surface Downward Stress, Sea Water Temperature and Sea Water Velocity) and atmospheric (NAO Index, AMO Index) variables. Subsequently, we applied the results of three climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2 and CNRM-CM5), associated with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under two simulations of climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), both associated with the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, for possible future influences on the eel. This research was funded by the Spanish

  15. Icing conditions over Northern Eurasia in changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulygina, Olga N; Arzhanova, Natalia M; Groisman, Pavel Ya

    2015-01-01

    Icing conditions, particularly in combination with wind, affect greatly the operation of overhead communication and transmission lines causing serious failures, which result in tremendous economic damage. Icing formation is dangerous to agriculture, forestry, high seas fishery, for land and off coast man-made infrastructure. Quantitative icing characteristics such as weight, thickness, and duration are very important for the economy and human wellbeing when their maximum values exceed certain thresholds. Russian meteorological stations perform both visual and instrumental monitoring of icing deposits. Visual monitoring is ocular estimation of the type and intensity of icing and the date of ice appearance and disappearance. Instrumental monitoring is performed by ice accretion indicator that in addition to the type, intensity and duration of ice deposits reports also their weight and size. We used observations at 958 Russian stations for the period 1977–2013 to analyze changes in the ice formation frequency at individual meteorological stations and on the territory of quasi-homogeneous climatic regions in Russia. It was found that hoar frosts are observed in most parts of Russia, but icing only occurs in European Russia and the Far East. On the Arctic coast of Russia, this phenomenon can even be observed in summer months. Statistically significant decreasing trends in occurrence of icing and hoar frost events are found over most of Russia. An increasing trend in icing weights (IWs) was found in the Atlantic Arctic region in autumn. Statistically significant large negative trends in IWs were found in the Pacific Arctic in winter and spring. (letter)

  16. Spirometry Changes in Cold Climatic Conditions of Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udaya, Iyamanda B; Laxmi, Chettangada C; Abhishekh, Hulegar A; Raju, Trichur R; Sathyaprabha, Talakad N

    2015-01-01

    Pulmonary function is one of the important physiological measures that is known to be affected during the changes in the altitude. There is dearth of literature on changes in the pulmonary function variables in the cold climate conditions of Antarctica. We carried out spirometry before, during and after one year stay at Antarctica in members of the Indian expedition. Spirometry was carried out on 23 members of the XXVI Indian Scientific Expedition to Antarctica at baseline, after six months of expedition and at the end of one year, using standard guidelines. The tests were carried out indoor in temperature controlled laboratory. The pulmonary function test parameters did not vary across the period. Although, both forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in first second (FEV1) showed a decreasing trend but did not attain any statistical significance. However, peak expiratory flow (PEFR) rate was reduced significantly. Our study did not show consistently significant change in the pulmonary function parameters in the members of the Indian Antarctic expedition.

  17. Atmospheric Rivers in Europe: impacts, predictability, and future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, A. M.; Tome, R.; Sousa, P. M.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Lavers, D.; Trigo, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years a strong relationship has been found between Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and extreme precipitation and floods across western Europe, with some regions having 8 of their top 10 annual maxima precipitation events related to ARs. In the particular case of the Iberian Peninsula, the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western river basins is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins the impact of ARs is reduced. An automated ARs detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean Basin, allowing the identification of major ARs affecting western European coasts in the present climate and under different climate change scenarios. We have used both reanalyzes and six General Circulation models under three climate scenarios (the control simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios). The western coast of Europe was divided into five domains, namely the Iberian Peninsula, France, UK, Southern Scandinavia and the Netherlands, and Northern Scandinavia. It was found that there is an increase in the vertically integrated horizontal water transport which led to an increase in the AR frequency, a result more visible in the high emission scenarios (RCP8.5) for the 2074-2099 period. Since ARs are associated with high impact weather, it is important to study their predictability. This assessment was performed with the ECMWF ensemble forecasts up to 10 days for winters 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2015/16 for events that made landfall in the Iberian Peninsula. We show the model's potential added value to detect upcoming ARs events, which is particularly useful to predict potential hydrometeorological extremes. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT

  18. Harmful algal blooms and climate change: Learning from the past and present to forecast the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Mark L.; Trainer, Vera L.; Smayda, Theodore J.; Karlson, Bengt S.O.; Trick, Charles G.; Kudela, Raphael M.; Ishikawa, Akira; Bernard, Stewart; Wulff, Angela; Anderson, Donald M.; Cochlan, William P.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change pressures will influence marine planktonic systems globally, and it is conceivable that harmful algal blooms may increase in frequency and severity. These pressures will be manifest as alterations in temperature, stratification, light, ocean acidification, precipitation-induced nutrient inputs, and grazing, but absence of fundamental knowledge of the mechanisms driving harmful algal blooms frustrates most hope of forecasting their future prevalence. Summarized here is the consensus of a recent workshop held to address what currently is known and not known about the environmental conditions that favor initiation and maintenance of harmful algal blooms. There is expectation that harmful algal bloom (HAB) geographical domains should expand in some cases, as will seasonal windows of opportunity for harmful algal blooms at higher latitudes. Nonetheless there is only basic information to speculate upon which regions or habitats HAB species may be the most resilient or susceptible. Moreover, current research strategies are not well suited to inform these fundamental linkages. There is a critical absence of tenable hypotheses for how climate pressures mechanistically affect HAB species, and the lack of uniform experimental protocols limits the quantitative cross-investigation comparisons essential to advancement. A HAB “best practices” manual would help foster more uniform research strategies and protocols, and selection of a small target list of model HAB species or isolates for study would greatly promote the accumulation of knowledge. Despite the need to focus on keystone species, more studies need to address strain variability within species, their responses under multifactorial conditions, and the retrospective analyses of long-term plankton and cyst core data; research topics that are departures from the norm. Examples of some fundamental unknowns include how larger and more frequent extreme weather events may break down natural biogeographic

  19. Hydropower Production in Future Climate Scenarios; the Case for the Zambezi River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byman H. Hamududu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change remains a threat to water resources projects in southern Africa where impacts resulting from changes in climate are projected to be negative and worse than in most other regions of the world. This work presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and hydropower production potential in the Zambezi River Basin. Future climate scenarios projected through the five General Circulation Model (GCM outputs are used as input in the impact assessment. The future projected climate scenarios are downscaled to find local and regional changes, and used in the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the river basin. According to the simulations, air temperature and potential evaporation are projected to increase, while rainfall is projected to decrease. The Zambezi hydropower system is likely to be affected negatively as a result of future climate changes. Increasing air temperature leading to increased evaporation, and reduced rainfall, both contribute to a decrease in resulting river flows and increased reservoir evaporation. Consequently, the decrease in water resources will lead to decreased hydropower production potential, by 9% in 2020s, 18% in 2050s and 28% in 2080s in the hydropower system, for a medium emission scenario, A1B.

  20. Landward Perspective of Coastal Eutrophication Potential Under Future Climate Change: The Seine River Case (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mélanie Raimonet

    2018-05-01

    hydrological conditions in the future. Maximum values are even expected to be higher some years. This study deliberately evaluates the impact of modified hydrology on biogeochemistry without considering the simultaneous alteration of water temperatures, in order to disentangle the causes of climate change-induced impact. It will serve as a first comparative step toward a more complete modeling experiment of climate change impacts on aquatic systems.

  1. Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the Western US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coco Liu, Jia; Mickley, Loretta J.; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Yue, Xu; Peng, Roger D.; Dominici, Francesca; Bell, Michelle L.

    2016-12-01

    Background. Wildfires are anticipated to be more frequent and intense under climate change. As a result, wildfires may emit more air pollutants that can harm health in communities in the future. The health impacts of wildfire smoke under climate change are largely unknown. Methods. We linked projections of future levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) specifically from wildfire smoke under the A1B climate change scenario using the GEOS-Chem model for 2046-2051, present-day estimates of hospital admission impacts from wildfire smoke, and future population projections to estimate the change in respiratory hospital admissions for persons ≥65 years by county (n = 561) from wildfire PM2.5 under climate change in the Western US. Results. The increase in intense wildfire smoke days from climate change would result in an estimated 178 (95% confidence interval: 6.2, 361) additional respiratory hospital admissions in the Western US, accounting for estimated future increase in the elderly population. Climate change is estimated to impose an additional 4990 high-pollution smoke days. Central Colorado, Washington and southern California are estimated to experience the highest percentage increase in respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change. Conclusion. Although the increase in number of respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke seems modest, these results provide important scientific evidence of an often-ignored aspect of wildfire impact, and information on their anticipated spatial distribution. Wildfires can cause serious social burdens such as property damage and suppression cost, but can also rai