Organic Contamination Baseline Study on NASA JSC Astromaterial Curation Gloveboxes

Science.gov (United States)

Calaway, Michael J.; Allton, J. H.; Allen, C. C.; Burkett, P. J.

2013-01-01

Future planned sample return missions to carbon-rich asteroids and Mars in the next two decades will require strict handling and curation protocols as well as new procedures for reducing organic contamination. After the Apollo program, astromaterial collections have mainly been concerned with inorganic contamination [1-4]. However, future isolation containment systems for astromaterials, possibly nitrogen enriched gloveboxes, must be able to reduce organic and inorganic cross-contamination. In 2012, a baseline study was orchestrated to establish the current state of organic cleanliness in gloveboxes used by NASA JSC astromaterials curation labs that could be used as a benchmark for future mission designs.

Decomposition for emission baseline setting in China's electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steenhof, Paul A.

2007-01-01

Decomposition analysis is used to generate carbon dioxide emission baselines in China's electricity sector to the year 2020. This is undertaken from the vantage point of the final consumer of electricity, and therefore considers factors influencing electricity demand, efficiency of generation, sources of energy used for generation purposes, and the effectiveness of transmission and distribution. It is found that since 1980, gains in efficiency of generation have been the most important factor affecting change in the emission intensity of electricity generated. Based upon known energy and economic policy, efficiency gains will continue to contribute to reductions in the emission intensity of electricity generated, however, fuel shifts to natural gas and increases in nuclear generation will further these trends into the future. The analysis confirms other sources in the literature that decomposition is an appropriate technique available for baseline construction, thereby suitable for the emerging carbon market and its related mechanisms

Forest carbon benefits, costs and leakage effects of carbon reserve scenarios in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Prakash Nepal; Peter J. Ince; Kenneth E. Skog; Sun J. Chang

2013-01-01

This study evaluated the potential effectiveness of future carbon reserve scenarios, where U.S. forest landowners would hypothetically be paid to sequester carbon on their timberland and forego timber harvests for 100 years. Scenarios featured direct payments to landowners of $0 (baseline), $5, $10, or $15 per metric ton of additional forest carbon sequestered on the...

Carbon trading: Current schemes and future developments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perdan, Slobodan; Azapagic, Adisa

2011-01-01

This paper looks at the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trading schemes and examines the prospects of carbon trading. The first part of the paper gives an overview of several mandatory GHG trading schemes around the world. The second part focuses on the future trends in carbon trading. It argues that the emergence of new schemes, a gradual enlargement of the current ones, and willingness to link existing and planned schemes seem to point towards geographical, temporal and sectoral expansion of emissions trading. However, such expansion would need to overcome some considerable technical and non-technical obstacles. Linking of the current and emerging trading schemes requires not only considerable technical fixes and harmonisation of different trading systems, but also necessitates clear regulatory and policy signals, continuing political support and a more stable economic environment. Currently, the latter factors are missing. The global economic turmoil and its repercussions for the carbon market, a lack of the international deal on climate change defining the Post-Kyoto commitments, and unfavourable policy shifts in some countries, cast serious doubts on the expansion of emissions trading and indicate that carbon trading enters an uncertain period. - Highlights: → The paper provides an extensive overview of mandatory emissions trading schemes around the world. → Geographical, temporal and sectoral expansion of emissions trading are identified as future trends. → The expansion requires considerable technical fixes and harmonisation of different trading systems. → Clear policy signals, political support and a stable economic environment are needed for the expansion. → A lack of the post-Kyoto commitments and unfavourable policy shifts indicate an uncertain future for carbon trading.

Impact assessment of the carbon reduction strategy for transport, low carbon transport : a greener future

Science.gov (United States)

2009-07-01

This is an impact assessment for the Carbon Reduction Strategy for Transport (DfT, 2009), Low Carbon Transport: A Greener Future, which is part of the UK Governments wider UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (DECC, 2009), Britains path to ta...

Historical forest baselines reveal potential for continued carbon sequestration

Science.gov (United States)

Rhemtulla, Jeanine M.; Mladenoff, David J.; Clayton, Murray K.

2009-01-01

One-third of net CO2 emissions to the atmosphere since 1850 are the result of land-use change, primarily from the clearing of forests for timber and agriculture, but quantifying these changes is complicated by the lack of historical data on both former ecosystem conditions and the extent and spatial configuration of subsequent land use. Using fine-resolution historical survey records, we reconstruct pre-EuroAmerican settlement (1850s) forest carbon in the state of Wisconsin, examine changes in carbon after logging and agricultural conversion, and assess the potential for future sequestration through forest recovery. Results suggest that total above-ground live forest carbon (AGC) fell from 434 TgC before settlement to 120 TgC at the peak of agricultural clearing in the 1930s and has since recovered to approximately 276 TgC. The spatial distribution of AGC, however, has shifted significantly. Former savanna ecosystems in the south now store more AGC because of fire suppression and forest ingrowth, despite the fact that most of the region remains in agriculture, whereas northern forests still store much less carbon than before settlement. Across the state, continued sequestration in existing forests has the potential to contribute an additional 69 TgC. Reforestation of agricultural lands, in particular, the formerly high C-density forests in the north-central region that are now agricultural lands less optimal than those in the south, could contribute 150 TgC. Restoring historical carbon stocks across the landscape will therefore require reassessing overall land-use choices, but a range of options can be ranked and considered under changing needs for ecosystem services. PMID:19369213

Neutrino Oscillation Parameter Sensitivity in Future Long-Baseline Experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bass, Matthew [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

2014-01-01

The study of neutrino interactions and propagation has produced evidence for physics beyond the standard model and promises to continue to shed light on rare phenomena. Since the discovery of neutrino oscillations in the late 1990s there have been rapid advances in establishing the three flavor paradigm of neutrino oscillations. The 2012 discovery of a large value for the last unmeasured missing angle has opened the way for future experiments to search for charge-parity symmetry violation in the lepton sector. This thesis presents an analysis of the future sensitivity to neutrino oscillations in the three flavor paradigm for the T2K, NO A, LBNE, and T2HK experiments. The theory of the three flavor paradigm is explained and the methods to use these theoretical predictions to design long baseline neutrino experiments are described. The sensitivity to the oscillation parameters for each experiment is presented with a particular focus on the search for CP violation and the measurement of the neutrino mass hierarchy. The variations of these sensitivities with statistical considerations and experimental design optimizations taken into account are explored. The effects of systematic uncertainties in the neutrino flux, interaction, and detection predictions are also considered by incorporating more advanced simulations inputs from the LBNE experiment.

Monitoring soil carbon will prepare growers for a carbon trading system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emma C. Suddick

2013-07-01

Full Text Available California growers could reap financial benefits from the low-carbon economy and cap-and-trade system envisioned by the state's AB 32 law, which seeks to lower greenhouse gas emissions statewide. Growers could gain carbon credits by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and sequestering carbon through reduced tillage and increased biomass residue incorporation. First, however, baseline stocks of soil carbon need to be assessed for various cropping systems and management practices. We designed and set up a pilot soil carbon and land-use monitoring network at several perennial cropping systems in Northern California. We compared soil carbon content in two vineyards and two orchards (walnut and almond, looking at conventional and conservation management practices, as well as in native grassland and oak woodland. We then calculated baseline estimates of the total carbon in almond, wine grape and walnut acreages statewide. The organic walnut orchard had the highest total soil carbon, and no-till vineyards had 27% more carbon in the surface soil than tilled vineyards. We estimated wine grape vineyards are storing significantly more soil carbon per acre than almond and walnut orchards. The data can be used to provide accurate information about soil carbon stocks in perennial cropping systems for a future carbon trading system.

Importance of vegetation dynamics for future terrestrial carbon cycling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahlström, Anders; Smith, Benjamin; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi; Arneth, Almut

2015-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems currently sequester about one third of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions each year, an important ecosystem service that dampens climate change. The future fate of this net uptake of CO 2 by land based ecosystems is highly uncertain. Most ecosystem models used to predict the future terrestrial carbon cycle share a common architecture, whereby carbon that enters the system as net primary production (NPP) is distributed to plant compartments, transferred to litter and soil through vegetation turnover and then re-emitted to the atmosphere in conjunction with soil decomposition. However, while all models represent the processes of NPP and soil decomposition, they vary greatly in their representations of vegetation turnover and the associated processes governing mortality, disturbance and biome shifts. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality, and the associated turnover. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing. By exchanging carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations we quantified the relative roles of three main driving processes of the carbon cycle; (I) NPP, (II) vegetation dynamics and turnover and (III) soil decomposition, in terms of their contribution to future carbon (C) uptake uncertainties among the ensemble of climate change scenarios. We found that NPP, vegetation turnover (including structural shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33%, respectively, of uncertainties in modelled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation turnover was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand

The utility of the historical record in assessing future carbon budgets

Science.gov (United States)

Millar, R.; Friedlingstein, P.; Allen, M. R.

2017-12-01

It has long been known that the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most physically relevant determiner of long-lived anthropogenic climate change, with an approximately linear relationship between CO2-induced global mean surface warming and cumulative emissions. The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emission and global mean warming using observations to date. Here we show that simple regression analysis indicates that the 1.5°C carbon budget would be exhausted after nearly three decades of current emissions, substantially in excess of many estimates from Earth System Models. However, there are many reasons to be cautious about carbon budget assessments from the historical record alone. Accounting for the uncertainty in non-CO2 radiative forcing using a simple climate model and a standard optimal fingerprinting detection attribution technique gives substantial uncertainty in the contribution of CO2 warming to date, and hence the transient climate response to cumulative emissions. Additionally, the existing balance between CO2 and non-CO2 forcing may change in the future under ambitious mitigation scenarios as non-CO2 emissions become more (or less) important to global mean temperature changes. Natural unforced variability can also have a substantial impact on estimates of remaining carbon budgets. By examining all warmings of a given magnitude in both the historical record and past and future ESM simulations we quantify the impact unforced climate variability may have on estimates of remaining carbon budgets, derived as a function of estimated non-CO2 warming and future emission scenario. In summary, whilst the historical record can act as a useful test of climate models, uncertainties in the response to future cumulative emissions remain large and extrapolations of future carbon budgets from the historical record alone should be treated with caution.

Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors. A view from the EU ETS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevallier, Julien

2009-01-01

This article examines the empirical relationship between the returns on carbon futures - a new class of commodity assets traded since 2005 on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) - and changes in macroeconomic conditions. By using variables which possess forecast power for equity and commodity returns, we document that carbon futures returns may be weakly forecast on the basis of two variables from the stock and bond markets, i.e. equity dividend yields and the 'junk bond' premium. Our results also suggest that the forecast abilities of two variables related to interest rates variation and economic trends on global commodity markets, respectively the U.S. Treasury bill yields and the excess return on the Reuters/CRB Index, are not robust on the carbon market. This latter result reinforces the belief that the EU ETS is currently operating as a very specific commodity market, with distinct fundamentals linked to allowance supply and power demand. The sensitivity of carbon futures to macroeconomic influences is carefully identified following a sub-sample decomposition before and after August 2007, which attempts to take into account the potential impact of the 'credit crunch' crisis. Collectively, these results challenge the market observers' viewpoint that carbon futures prices are immediately correlated with changes in the macroeconomic environment, and rather suggest that the carbon market is only remotely connected to macroeconomic variables. The economic logic behind these results may be related to the fuel-switching behavior of power producers in influencing primarily carbon futures price changes. (author)

Modelling the inorganic ocean carbon cycle under past and future climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ewan, T.L.

2004-01-01

This study used a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model with an inorganic carbon component to examine the inorganic ocean carbon cycle with particular reference to how climate feedback influences future uptake. In the last 150 years, the increase in atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations have been higher than any time during the Earth's history. Although the oceans are the largest sink for carbon dioxide, it is not know how the ocean carbon cycle will respond to increasing anthropogenic carbon dioxide concentrations in the future. Climate feedbacks could potentially reduce further uptake of carbon by the ocean. In addition to examining past climate transitions, including both abrupt and glacial-interglacial climate transitions, this study also examined the sensitivity of the inorganic carbon cycle to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were also projected under a range of global warming scenarios. Most simulations identified a transient weakening of the North Atlantic and increased sea surface temperatures (SST). These positive feedbacks act on the carbon system to reduce uptake. However, the ocean has the capacity to take up 65 to 75 per cent of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide increases. An analysis of climate feedback on future carbon uptake shows that oceans store 7 per cent more carbon when there are no climate feedbacks acting on the system. Sensitivity experiments using the Gent McWilliams parameterization for mixing associated with mesoscale eddies show a further 6 per cent increase in oceanic uptake. Inclusion of sea ice dynamics resulted in a 2 per cent difference in uptake. This study also examined changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration that occur during abrupt climate change events. Changes in ocean circulation and carbon solubility cause significant increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations when melt water episodes are simulated in both hemispheres. The response of the carbon

Seeking potential contributions to future carbon budget in conterminous US forests considering disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Fangmin; Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard A.; Chen, Jing M.; Dugan, Alexa

2017-11-01

Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011-2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (Saging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (Sfixed_nodis), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (Sdis_age_change). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the Sfixed_nodis scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the Sfixed_nodis scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO2 on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty

Terrestrial carbon turnover time constraints on future carbon cycle-climate feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, N.; Carvalhais, N.; Reichstein, M.

2017-12-01

Understanding the terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedback is essential to reduce the uncertainties resulting from the between model spread in prognostic simulations (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). One perspective is to investigate which factors control the variability of the mean residence times of carbon in the land surface, and how these may change in the future, consequently affecting the response of the terrestrial ecosystems to changes in climate as well as other environmental conditions. Carbon turnover time of the whole ecosystem is a dynamic parameter that represents how fast the carbon cycle circulates. Turnover time τ is an essential property for understanding the carbon exchange between the land and the atmosphere. Although current Earth System Models (ESMs), supported by GVMs for the description of the land surface, show a strong convergence in GPP estimates, but tend to show a wide range of simulated turnover times (Carvalhais, 2014). Thus, there is an emergent need of constraints on the projected response of the balance between terrestrial carbon fluxes and carbon stock which will give us more certainty in response of carbon cycle to climate change. However, the difficulty of obtaining such a constraint is partly due to lack of observational data on temporal change of terrestrial carbon stock. Since more new datasets of carbon stocks such as SoilGrid (Hengl, et al., 2017) and fluxes such as GPP (Jung, et al., 2017) are available, improvement in estimating turnover time can be achieved. In addition, previous study ignored certain aspects such as the relationship between τ and nutrients, fires, etc. We would like to investigate τ and its role in carbon cycle by combining observatinoal derived datasets and state-of-the-art model simulations.

Wind farms on undegraded peatlands are unlikely to reduce future carbon emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Jo; Nayak, Dali Rani; Smith, Pete

2014-01-01

Onshore wind energy is a key component of the renewable energies used by governments to reduce carbon emissions from electricity production, but will carbon emissions be reduced when wind farms are located on carbon-rich peatands? Wind farms are often located in uplands because most are of low agricultural value, are distant from residential areas, and are windy. Many UK uplands are peatlands, with layers of accumulated peat that represent a large stock of soil carbon. When peatlands are drained for construction there is a higher risk of net carbon loss than for mineral soils. Previous work suggests that wind farms sited on peatlands can reduce net carbon emissions if strictly managed for maximum retention of carbon. Here we show that, whereas in 2010, most sites had potential to provide net carbon savings, by 2040 most sites will not reduce carbon emissions even with careful management. This is due to projected changes in the proportion of fossil fuels used to generate electricity. The results suggest future policy should avoid constructing wind farms on undegraded peatlands unless drainage of peat is minimal and the volume excavated in foundations can be significantly reduced compared to energy output. - Highlights: • Future wind farms located on undegraded peats will not reduce carbon emissions. • This is due to projected changes in fossil fuels used to generate electricity. • Future policy should avoid constructing wind farms on undegraded peats

Role of volcanic forcing on future global carbon cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. F. Tjiputra

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Using a fully coupled global climate-carbon cycle model, we assess the potential role of volcanic eruptions on future projection of climate change and its associated carbon cycle feedback. The volcanic-like forcings are applied together with a business-as-usual IPCC-A2 carbon emissions scenario. We show that very large volcanic eruptions similar to Tambora lead to short-term substantial global cooling. However, over a long period, smaller eruptions similar to Pinatubo in amplitude, but set to occur frequently, would have a stronger impact on future climate change. In a scenario where the volcanic external forcings are prescribed with a five-year frequency, the induced cooling immediately lower the global temperature by more than one degree before it returns to the warming trend. Therefore, the climate change is approximately delayed by several decades, and by the end of the 21st century, the warming is still below two degrees when compared to the present day period. Our climate-carbon feedback analysis shows that future volcanic eruptions induce positive feedbacks (i.e., more carbon sink on both the terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle. The feedback signal on the ocean is consistently smaller than the terrestrial counterpart and the feedback strength is proportionally related to the frequency of the volcanic eruption events. The cooler climate reduces the terrestrial heterotrophic respiration in the northern high latitude and increases net primary production in the tropics, which contributes to more than 45 % increase in accumulated carbon uptake over land. The increased solubility of CO₂ gas in seawater associated with cooler SST is offset by a reduced CO₂ partial pressure gradient between the ocean and the atmosphere, which results in small changes in net ocean carbon uptake. Similarly, there is nearly no change in the seawater buffer capacity simulated between the different volcanic scenarios. Our study shows that even

Reduced Future Precipitation Makes Permanence of Amazonian Carbon Sinks Questionable

Science.gov (United States)

Arora, V.

2011-12-01

The tropical forests of the Amazon, considered as a tipping element in Earth's climate system, provide several ecosystem services including the maintenance of favourable regional climatic conditions in the region and storage of large amounts of carbon in their above- and below-ground pools. While it is nearly impossible, at present, to put a dollar value on these ecosystem services, the developed countries have started paying large sums of money to developing countries in the tropics to reduce deforestation. Norway recently committed up to $1 billion to the Amazon fund. The United Nations' Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) program also financially supports national activities of 13 countries worldwide. The primary assumption inherent in paying for avoiding deforestation is that avoided land use change emissions contribute towards climate change mitigation. In addition, the standing forests that are spared deforestation contribute towards additional carbon sinks associated with the CO2 fertilization effect. Implicit in this reasoning is the understanding that the carbon sinks provided by avoided deforestation have some "permanence" associated with them, at least in the order of 50-100 years. Clearly, if "avoided deforestation" is essentially "delayed deforestation" then the benefits will not be long lasting. More importantly, changes in climate have the potential to adversely affect the permanence of carbon sinks, whether they are being paid for or not. This presentation will address the question of "permanence" by analyzing simulations of the second generation Canadian Earth system model (CanESM2) that are contributing results to the upcoming fifth Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). CanESM2 results for the future RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios show, that due to reduced future precipitation, the Amazonian region remains a net source of carbon over the 21st century in all scenarios. The carbon losses during the recent

Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

2016-07-01

Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating the carbon budget and maximizing future carbon uptake for a temperate forest region in the U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Forests of the Midwest U.S. provide numerous ecosystem services. Two of these, carbon sequestration and wood production, are often portrayed as conflicting. Currently, carbon management and biofuel policies are being developed to reduce atmospheric CO2 and national dependence on foreign oil, and increase carbon storage in ecosystems. However, the biological and industrial forest carbon cycles are rarely studied in a whole-system structure. The forest system carbon balance is the difference between the biological (net ecosystem production) and industrial (net emissions from forest industry) forest carbon cycles, but to date this critical whole system analysis is lacking. This study presents a model of the forest system, uses it to compute the carbon balance, and outlines a methodology to maximize future carbon uptake in a managed forest region. Results We used a coupled forest ecosystem process and forest products life cycle inventory model for a regional temperate forest in the Midwestern U.S., and found the net system carbon balance for this 615,000 ha forest was positive (2.29 t C ha-1 yr-1). The industrial carbon budget was typically less than 10% of the biological system annually, and averaged averaged 0.082 t C ha-1 yr-1. Net C uptake over the next 100-years increased by 22% or 0.33 t C ha-1 yr-1 relative to the current harvest rate in the study region under the optized harvest regime. Conclusions The forest’s biological ecosystem current and future carbon uptake capacity is largely determined by forest harvest practices that occurred over a century ago, but we show an optimized harvesting strategy would increase future carbon sequestration, or wood production, by 20-30%, reduce long transportation chain emissions, and maintain many desirable stand structural attributes that are correlated to biodiversity. Our results for this forest region suggest that increasing harvest over the next 100 years increases the strength of

Estimating the carbon budget and maximizing future carbon uptake for a temperate forest region in the U.S.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peckham Scott D

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Forests of the Midwest U.S. provide numerous ecosystem services. Two of these, carbon sequestration and wood production, are often portrayed as conflicting. Currently, carbon management and biofuel policies are being developed to reduce atmospheric CO2 and national dependence on foreign oil, and increase carbon storage in ecosystems. However, the biological and industrial forest carbon cycles are rarely studied in a whole-system structure. The forest system carbon balance is the difference between the biological (net ecosystem production and industrial (net emissions from forest industry forest carbon cycles, but to date this critical whole system analysis is lacking. This study presents a model of the forest system, uses it to compute the carbon balance, and outlines a methodology to maximize future carbon uptake in a managed forest region. Results We used a coupled forest ecosystem process and forest products life cycle inventory model for a regional temperate forest in the Midwestern U.S., and found the net system carbon balance for this 615,000 ha forest was positive (2.29 t C ha-1 yr-1. The industrial carbon budget was typically less than 10% of the biological system annually, and averaged averaged 0.082 t C ha-1 yr-1. Net C uptake over the next 100-years increased by 22% or 0.33 t C ha-1 yr-1 relative to the current harvest rate in the study region under the optized harvest regime. Conclusions The forest’s biological ecosystem current and future carbon uptake capacity is largely determined by forest harvest practices that occurred over a century ago, but we show an optimized harvesting strategy would increase future carbon sequestration, or wood production, by 20-30%, reduce long transportation chain emissions, and maintain many desirable stand structural attributes that are correlated to biodiversity. Our results for this forest region suggest that increasing harvest over the next 100�

Future carbon regulations and current investments in alternative coal-fired power plant technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sekar, Ram C.; Parsons, John E.; Herzog, Howard J.; Jacoby, Henry D.

2007-01-01

We analyze how uncertain future US carbon regulations shape the current choice of the type of power plant to build. Our focus is on two coal-fired technologies, pulverized coal (PC) and integrated coal gasification combined cycle technology (IGCC). The PC technology is cheapest-assuming there is no need to control carbon emissions. The IGCC technology may be cheaper if carbon must be captured. Since power plants last many years and future regulations are uncertain, a US electric utility faces a standard decision under uncertainty. A company will confront the range of possible outcomes, assigning its best estimate of the probability of each scenario, averaging the results and determining the power plant technology with the lowest possible cost inclusive of expected future carbon related costs, whether those costs be in the form of emissions charges paid or capital expenditures for retrofitting to capture carbon. If the company assigns high probability to no regulation or to less stringent regulation of carbon, then it makes sense for it to build the PC plant. But if it assigns sufficient probability to scenarios with more stringent regulation, then the IGCC technology is warranted. We provide some useful benchmarks for possible future regulation and show how these relate back to the relative costs of the two technologies and the optimal technology choice. Few of the policy proposals widely referenced in the public discussion warrant the choice of the IGCC technology. Instead, the PC technology remains the least costly. However, recent carbon prices in the European Emissions Trading System are higher than these benchmarks. If it is any guide to possible future penalties for emissions in the US, then current investment in the IGCC technology is warranted. Of course, other factors need to be factored into the decision as well

Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2010-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

Carbon dioxide removal and the futures market

Science.gov (United States)

Coffman, D.'Maris; Lockley, Andrew

2017-01-01

Futures contracts are exchange-traded financial instruments that enable parties to fix a price in advance, for later performance on a contract. Forward contracts also entail future settlement, but they are traded directly between two parties. Futures and forwards are used in commodities trading, as producers seek financial security when planning production. We discuss the potential use of futures contracts in Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) markets; concluding that they have one principal advantage (near-term price security to current polluters), and one principal disadvantage (a combination of high price volatility and high trade volume means contracts issued by the private sector may cause systemic economic risk). Accordingly, we note the potential for the development of futures markets in CDR, but urge caution about the prospects for market failure. In particular, we consider the use of regulated markets: to ensure contracts are more reliable, and that moral hazard is minimised. While regulation offers increased assurances, we identify major insufficiencies with this approach—finding it generally inadequate. In conclusion, we suggest that only governments can realistically support long-term CDR futures markets. We note existing long-term CDR plans by governments, and suggest the use of state-backed futures for supporting these assurances.

Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Selsted, Merete Bang

on ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions, shows that extended summer drought in combination with elevated temperature will ensure permanent dryer soil conditions, which decreases carbon turnover, while elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations will increase...... carbon turnover. In the full future climate scenario, carbon turnover is over all expected to increase and the heathland to become a source of atmospheric CO2. The methodology of static chamber CO2 flux measurements and applying the technology in a FACE (free air CO2 enrichment) facility is a challenge...... on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Photosynthesis and respiration run in parallel during measurements of net ecosystem exchange, and these measurements should therefore be performed with care to both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the CO2 soil-atmosphere gradient....

Wind power projects in the CDM: Methodologies and tools for baselines, carbon financing and sustainability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ringius, L.; Grohnheit, P.E.; Nielsen, L.H.; Olivier, A.L.; Painuly, J.; Villavicencio, A.

2002-12-01

The report is intended to be a guidance document for project developers, investors, lenders, and CDM host countries involved in wind power projects in the CDM. The report explores in particular those issues that are important in CDM project assessment and development - that is, baseline development, carbon financing, and environmental sustainability. It does not deal in detail with those issues that are routinely covered in a standard wind power project assessment. The report tests, compares, and recommends methodologies for and approaches to baseline development. To present the application and implications of the various methodologies and approaches in a concrete context, Africa's largest wind farm-namely the 60 MW wind farm located in Zafarana, Egypt- is examined as a hypothetical CDM wind power project The report shows that for the present case example there is a difference of about 25% between the lowest (0.5496 tCO2/MWh) and the highest emission rate (0.6868 tCO 2 /MWh) estimated in accordance with these three standardized approaches to baseline development according to the Marrakesh Accord. This difference in emission factors comes about partly as a result of including hydroelectric power in the baseline scenario. Hydroelectric resources constitute around 21% of the generation capacity in Egypt, and, if excluding hydropower, the difference between the lowest and the highest baseline is reduced to 18%. Furthermore, since the two variations of the 'historical' baseline option examined result in the highest and the lowest baselines, by disregarding this baseline option altogether the difference between the lowest and the highest is reduced to 16%. The ES3-model, which the Systems Analysis Department at Risoe National Laboratory has developed, makes it possible for this report to explore the project-specific approach to baseline development in some detail. Based on quite disaggregated data on the Egyptian electricity system, including the wind power production

Hydrochemical variations in selected geothermal groundwater and carbonated springs in Korea: a baseline study for early detection of CO2 leakage.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Hanna; Piao, Jize; Woo, Nam C; Cho, Heuynam

2017-02-01

A baseline hydrochemistry of the above zone aquifer was examined for the potential of CO 2 early detection monitoring. Among the major ionic components and stable isotope ratios of oxygen, hydrogen, and carbon, components with a relative standard deviation (RSD) of leakage into the above zone. As an analog to the zone above CO 2 storage formation, we sampled deep groundwater, including geothermal groundwater from well depths of 400-700 m below the ground surface (bgs) and carbonated springs with a high CO 2 content in Korea. Under the natural conditions of inland geothermal groundwater, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), bicarbonate (HCO 3 ), δ 18 O, δ 2 H, and δ 13 C were relatively stable as well as sensitive to the introduction of CO 2 (g), thus showing good potential as monitoring parameters for early detection of CO 2 leakage. In carbonated springs, the parameters identified were pH, δ 18 O, and δ 2 H. Baseline hydrochemistry monitoring could provide information on parameters useful for detecting anomalies caused by CO 2 leakage as measures for early warning.

Wind power projects in the CDM: Methodologies and tools for baselines, carbon financing and substainability analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ringius, L.; Grohnheit, Poul Erik; Nielsen, Lars Henrik

2002-01-01

and implications of the various methodologies and approaches in a concrete context, Africa's largest wind farm-namely the 60 MW wind farm located in Zafarana,Egypt is examined as a hypothetical CDM wind power project The report shows that for the present case example there is a difference of about 25% between......The report is intended to be a guidance document for project developers, investors, lenders, and CDM host countries involved in wind power projects in the CDM. The report explores in particular those issues that are important in CDM project assessment anddevelopment - that is, baseline development......, carbon financing, and environmental sustainability. It does not deal in detail with those issues that are routinely covered in a standard wind power project assessment. The report tests, compares, andrecommends methodologies for and approaches to baseline development. To present the application...

Carbon Sequestration in Colorado's Lands: A Spatial and Policy Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, N.; Brazeau, A.; Browning, K.; Meier, R.

2017-12-01

Managing landscapes to enhance terrestrial carbon sequestration has significant potential to mitigate climate change. While a previous carbon baseline assessment in Colorado has been published (Conant et al, 2007), our study pulls from the existing literature to conduct an updated baseline assessment of carbon stocks and a unique review of carbon policies in Colorado. Through a multi-level spatial analysis based in GIS and informed by a literature review, we established a carbon stock baseline and ran four land use and carbon stock projection scenarios using Monte Carlo simulations. We identified 11 key policy recommendations for improving Colorado's carbon stocks, and evaluated each using Bardach's policy matrix approach (Bardach, 2012). We utilized a series of case studies to support our policy recommendations. We found that Colorado's lands have a carbon stock of 3,334 MMT CO2eq, with Forests and Woodlands holding the largest stocks, at 1,490 and 774 MMT CO2eq respectively. Avoided conversion of all Grasslands, Forests, and Wetlands in Colorado projected over 40 years would increase carbon stocks by 32 MMT CO2eq, 1,053 MMT CO2eq, and 36 MMT CO2eq, respectively. Over the 40-year study period, Forests and Woodlands areas are projected to shrink while Shrublands and Developed areas are projected to grow. Those projections suggest sizable increases in area of future wildfires and development in Colorado. We found that numerous policy opportunities to sequester carbon exist at different jurisdictional levels and across land cover types. The largest opportunities were found in state-level policies and policies impacting Forests, Grasslands, and Wetlands. The passage of statewide emission reduction legislation has the highest potential to impact carbon sequestration, although political and administrative feasibility of this option are relatively low. This study contributes to the broader field of carbon sequestration literature by examining the nexus of carbon stocks

Carbon and environmental footprinting of global biofuel production

OpenAIRE

Hammond, Geoff P.; Seth, S.M.

2013-01-01

The carbon and environmental footprints associated with the global production of biofuels have been computed from a baseline of 2007-2009 out until 2019. Estimates of future global biofuel production were adopted from OECD-FAO and related projections. In order to determine the footprints associated with these (essentially 'first generation') biofuel resources, the overall environmental footprint was disaggregated into bioproductive land, built land, carbon, embodied energy, materials and wast...

The U. S. DOE Carbon Storage Program: Status and Future Directions

Science.gov (United States)

Damiani, D.

2016-12-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is taking steps to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions through clean energy innovation, including carbon capture and storage (CCS) research. The Office of Fossil Energy Carbon Storage Program is focused on ensuring the safe and permanent storage and/or utilization of CO2 captured from stationary sources. The Program is developing and advancing geologic storage technologies both onshore and offshore that will significantly improve the effectiveness of CCS, reduce the cost of implementation, and be ready for widespread commercial deployment in the 2025-2035 timeframe. The technology development and field testing conducted through this Program will be used to benefit the existing and future fleet of fossil fuel power generating and industrial facilities by creating tools to increase our understanding of geologic reservoirs appropriate for CO2 storage and the behavior of CO2 in the subsurface. The Program is evaluating the potential for storage in depleted oil and gas reservoirs, saline formations, unmineable coal, organic-rich shale formations, and basalt formations. Since 1997, DOE's Carbon Storage Program has significantly advanced the CCS knowledge base through a diverse portfolio of applied research projects. The Core Storage R&D research component focuses on analytic studies, laboratory, and pilot- scale research to develop technologies that can improve wellbore integrity, increase reservoir storage efficiency, improve management of reservoir pressure, ensure storage permanence, quantitatively assess risks, and identify and mitigate potential release of CO2 in all types of storage formations. The Storage Field Management component focuses on scale-up of CCS and involves field validation of technology options, including large-volume injection field projects at pre-commercial scale to confirm system performance and economics. Future research involves commercial-scale characterization for regionally significant storage locations

SRP baseline hydrogeologic investigation: Aquifer characterization. Groundwater geochemistry of the Savannah River Site and vicinity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Strom, R.N.; Kaback, D.S.

1992-03-31

An investigation of the mineralogy and chemistry of the principal hydrogeologic units and the geochemistry of the water in the principal aquifers at Savannah River Site (SRS) was undertaken as part of the Baseline Hydrogeologic Investigation. This investigation was conducted to provide background data for future site studies and reports and to provide a site-wide interpretation of the geology and geochemistry of the Coastal Plain Hydrostratigraphic province. Ground water samples were analyzed for major cations and anions, minor and trace elements, gross alpha and beta, tritium, stable isotopes of hydrogen, oxygen, and carbon, and carbon-14. Sediments from the well borings were analyzed for mineralogy and major and minor elements.

Carbon offset potentials and design: Anticipating future public policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trexler, M.C.; Kosloff, L.H.; Gowen, M.

1994-01-01

Carbon offsets offer CO 2 emitters the opportunity to compensate for some proportion of their CO 2 emissions through the pursuit of emissions reduction or carbon sequestration projects beyond their own operational boundaries. The flexibility to pursue carbon offsets ''off-site'' can dramatically reduce the costs of achieving a given net emissions reduction. The future role of carbon offsets, however, continues to be a topic of considerable debate. Several processes are currently under way nationally and internationally that will help shape this role. This paper discusses how alternative policy outcomes could encourage or restrict the viability of carbon offsets as a component of corporate climate change mitigation portfolios and proposes criteria by which projects should be evaluated prior to the finalization of national or international policy frameworks. Based on these outcomes, the potential for offsets could be very large or very modest. It is vital that policy development in the offset arena account for the still voluntary nature of mitigation efforts and that the objective of climate change mitigation not be forgotten in the push for offset rules and regulations. At the same time, carbon offsets are far from a panacea for climate change mitigation and should be evaluated in the context of a larger global mitigation portfolio

Predicting future UK housing stock and carbon emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Natarajan, Sukumar; Levermore, Geoffrey J.

2007-01-01

This paper presents a novel method for exploring future transformations in the UK housing stock. The method is shown to be more robust and faster than existing methods through various tests. A Java-based implementation of the method in a new model of the UK housing stock, DECarb, is examined using a back-cast scenario from 1970 to 1996. The results show an average difference of -5.4% between predicted and actual energy demand. Comparison with predicted carbon emissions from the BRE's BREHOMES model shows a difference of around -0.9% for the same period. These results suggest that DECarb is likely to be an effective tool in examining future scenarios since the same objects and processes used in back-casting in the model are also used in forecasting. The model has an open framework and could therefore significantly benefit ongoing domestic and non-domestic climate futures research. (author)

Zero carbon home: Britain’s house of the future (?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fell Antony

2016-01-01

Full Text Available One of the key issues that determine the wellbeing of young people in Britain is their prospect of living and raising a family in a house of their own. In an ideal scenario, a young professional couple should be able to purchase a comfortable and affordable home as they need it, but in the recent years, the affordability of new homes for young people has become a problem as house prices rose. Moreover, the British government is committed to reducing Britain’s carbon emissions [1] , and for future home owners this means that new houses must meet strict criteria ensuring that they are equipped with energy saving features that make them eco friendly. Britian’s ideal ecohouse of the future is a very high energy efficiency rating home, a zero carbon home. However, these requirements increase the building cost of new homes, which in turn can raise the house prices even further. This article surveys new energy saving solutions which are being implemented in British homes and evaluates their effectiveness and cost. Using desk top research as the method for this enquiry the authors attempt to sketch the image of the (possible house of the future – a type of dwelling that new home buyers should be buying in years to come – if they can afford it.

Development Of Regional Climate Mitigation Baseline For A DominantAgro-Ecological Zone Of Karnataka, India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sudha, P.; Shubhashree, D.; Khan, H.; Hedge, G.T.; Murthy, I.K.; Shreedhara, V.; Ravindranath, N.H.

2007-06-01

Setting a baseline for carbon stock changes in forest andland use sector mitigation projects is an essential step for assessingadditionality of the project. There are two approaches for settingbaselines namely, project-specific and regional baseline. This paperpresents the methodology adopted for estimating the land available formitigation, for developing a regional baseline, transaction cost involvedand a comparison of project-specific and regional baseline. The studyshowed that it is possible to estimate the potential land and itssuitability for afforestation and reforestation mitigation projects,using existing maps and data, in the dry zone of Karnataka, southernIndia. The study adopted a three-step approach for developing a regionalbaseline, namely: i) identification of likely baseline options for landuse, ii) estimation of baseline rates of land-use change, and iii)quantification of baseline carbon profile over time. The analysis showedthat carbon stock estimates made for wastelands and fallow lands forproject-specific as well as the regional baseline are comparable. Theratio of wasteland Carbon stocks of a project to regional baseline is1.02, and that of fallow lands in the project to regional baseline is0.97. The cost of conducting field studies for determination of regionalbaseline is about a quarter of the cost of developing a project-specificbaseline on a per hectare basis. The study has shown the reliability,feasibility and cost-effectiveness of adopting regional baseline forforestry sectormitigation projects.

Carbon membranes - current progress and future prospects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tennison, St.; Arnott, K.; Richter, H.

2007-01-01

The future use of nano-porous gas separation membranes will be dependent on significant reductions in the membrane and module costs, improvements in production methods to allow better reproducibility, ability to scale up production and improved performance and understanding of the mode of operation of the membrane systems. New approaches to ceramic supported carbon membranes could offer solutions to these problems. Whilst the performance characteristics underline the limitations of these membranes they also show where specific process opportunities might be accessible particularly in environmental and high temperature separations. (authors)

Operational flexibility and economics of power plants in future low-carbon power systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouwer, Anne Sjoerd; van den Broek, Machteld; Seebregts, Ad; Faaij, André

2015-01-01

Future power systems will require large shares of low-carbon generators such as renewables and power plants with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) to keep global warming below 2. °C. Intermittent renewables increase the system-wide demand for flexibility and affect the operation of thermal power

2016 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) - Webinar Presentation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Wesley; Kurup, Parthiv; Hand, Maureen; Feldman, David; Sigrin, Benjamin; Lantz, Eric; Stehly, Tyler; Augustine, Chad; Turchi, Craig; Porro, Gian; O' Connor, Patrick; Waldoch, Connor

2016-09-13

This deck was presented for the 2016 Annual Technology Baseline Webinar. The presentation describes the Annual Technology Baseline, which is a compilation of current and future cost and performance data for electricity generation technologies.

Future Projections and Consequences of the Changing North American Carbon Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Cooley, S. R.; Moore, D. J.

2017-12-01

The rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily due to human-caused fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. Nevertheless, today's atmospheric CO2 levels are higher than at any time in the past 800,000 years. Over the past decade, there has been considerable effort to understand how carbon cycle changes interact with, and influence, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and thus climate. Here, we summarize the key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and the consequences of these changes as reported in Chapters 17 and 19 of the 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, plant growth, and water-use efficiency. Together, these may lead to changes in vegetation composition, carbon storage, hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. In the ocean, increased uptake of atmospheric CO2 causes ocean acidification, which leads to changes in reproduction, survival, and growth of many marine species. These direct physiological responses to acidification are likely to have indirect ecosystem-scale consequences that we are just beginning to understand. In all environments, the effects of rising CO2 also interact with other global changes. For example, nutrient availability can set limits on growth and a warming climate alters carbon uptake depending on a number of other factors. As a result, there is low confidence in the future evolution of the North American carbon cycle. For example, models project that terrestrial ecosystems could continue to be a net sink (of up to 1.19 PgC yr-1) or switch to a net source of carbon to the atmosphere (of up to 0.60 PgC yr-1) by the end of the century under business-as-usual emission scenarios. And, while North American coastal areas have historically been a sink of carbon (e.g., 2.6 to 3.5 PgC since 1995) and are projected to continue to take up

The possibility of previous epidemiological data to serve as baseline for future national oral health surveys--a study in Vietnam.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van; Truin, G.J.; Can, N.; Khanh, N.D.

2001-01-01

AIM: The purpose of this paper is to review the most recent epidemiological data (1985-2000) on dental caries and periodontal diseases in Vietnam in an attempt to obtain a 'baseline' for future national oral health surveys. METHODS: Studies on periodontal diseases and caries were included when CPITN

Volatility Spillovers and Causality of Carbon Emissions, Oil and Coal Spot and Futures for the EU and USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chia-Lin Chang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Recent research shows that the efforts to limit climate change should focus on reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide over other greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Many countries are paying substantial attention to carbon emissions to improve air quality and public health. The largest source of carbon emissions from human activities in some countries in Europe and elsewhere is from burning fossil fuels for electricity, heat, and transportation. The prices of fuel and carbon emissions can influence each other. Owing to the importance of carbon emissions and their connection to fossil fuels, and the possibility of [1] Granger (1980 causality in spot and futures prices, returns, and volatility of carbon emissions, crude oil and coal have recently become very important research topics. For the USA, daily spot and futures prices are available for crude oil and coal, but there are no daily futures prices for carbon emissions. For the European Union (EU, there are no daily spot prices for coal or carbon emissions, but there are daily futures prices for crude oil, coal and carbon emissions. For this reason, daily prices will be used to analyse Granger causality and volatility spillovers in spot and futures prices of carbon emissions, crude oil, and coal. As the estimators are based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimators (QMLE under the incorrect assumption of a normal distribution, we modify the likelihood ratio (LR test to a quasi-likelihood ratio test (QLR to test the multivariate conditional volatility Diagonal BEKK model, which estimates and tests volatility spillovers, and has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties, against the alternative Full BEKK model, which also estimates volatility spillovers, but has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties only under the null hypothesis of zero off-diagonal elements. Dynamic hedging strategies by using optimal hedge ratios are suggested to analyse market fluctuations in the

Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: comparison with observations and projected near-future changes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Shindell, D.T.; Krol, M.C.

2006-01-01

We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-ofthe- art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show

Fusion power in a future low carbon global electricity system

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cabal, H.; Lechón, Y.; Bustreo, C.

2017-01-01

Fusion is one of the technologies that may contribute to a future, low carbon, global energy supply system. In this article we investigate the role that it may play under different scenarios. The global energy model ETM (originally EFDA TIMES Model) has been used to analyse the participation...

Large short-baseline νμ disappearance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giunti, Carlo; Laveder, Marco

2011-01-01

We analyze the LSND, KARMEN, and MiniBooNE data on short-baseline ν μ →ν e oscillations and the data on short-baseline ν e disappearance obtained in the Bugey-3 and CHOOZ reactor experiments in the framework of 3+1 antineutrino mixing, taking into account the MINOS observation of long-baseline ν μ disappearance and the KamLAND observation of very-long-baseline ν e disappearance. We show that the fit of the data implies that the short-baseline disappearance of ν μ is relatively large. We obtain a prediction of an effective amplitude sin 2 2θ μμ > or approx. 0.1 for short-baseline ν μ disappearance generated by 0.2 2 2 , which could be measured in future experiments.

Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Shindell, D.T.; Faluvegi, G.; Stevenson, D.S.; Krol, M.C.; Emmons, L.K.; Lamarque, J.F.; Petron, G.; Dentener, F.J.; Ellingsen, K.; Schultz, M.G.; Wild, O.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C.S.; Bergmann, D.J.; Bey, I.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Collins, W.J.; Derwent, R.G.; Doherty, R.M.; Drevet, J.; Eskes, H.J.; Fiore, A.M.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D.A.; Horowitz, L.W.; Isaksen, I.S.A.; Lawrence, M.G.; Montanaro, V.; Muller, J.F.; Pitari, G.; Prather, M.J.; Pyle, J.A.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Sanderson, M.G.; Savage, N.H.; Strahan, S.E.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Unger, N.; Noije, van T.P.C.; Zeng, G.

2006-01-01

We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show

A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2010-01-01

he Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, mandates the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation’s ecosystems, focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands/shrublands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries); (2) an estimate of the annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities); and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land-use and land-cover change, and disturbances such as wildfires.The concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem carbon and GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess potential capacities based on a set of scenarios. The scenario framework will be constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with both reference and enhanced land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management parameters. Additional LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each storyline to increase carbon sequestration and reduce GHG fluxes in ecosystems. Input from regional experts and stakeholders will be

Simulation of salinity effects on past, present, and future soil organic carbon stocks.

Science.gov (United States)

Setia, Raj; Smith, Pete; Marschner, Petra; Gottschalk, Pia; Baldock, Jeff; Verma, Vipan; Setia, Deepika; Smith, Jo

2012-02-07

Soil organic carbon (SOC) models are used to predict changes in SOC stocks and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions from soils, and have been successfully validated for non-saline soils. However, SOC models have not been developed to simulate SOC turnover in saline soils. Due to the large extent of salt-affected areas in the world, it is important to correctly predict SOC dynamics in salt-affected soils. To close this knowledge gap, we modified the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) to simulate SOC turnover in salt-affected soils, using data from non-salt-affected and salt-affected soils in two agricultural regions in India (120 soils) and in Australia (160 soils). Recently we developed a decomposition rate modifier based on an incubation study of a subset of these soils. In the present study, we introduce a new method to estimate the past losses of SOC due to salinity and show how salinity affects future SOC stocks on a regional scale. Because salinity decreases decomposition rates, simulations using the decomposition rate modifier for salinity suggest an accumulation of SOC. However, if the plant inputs are also adjusted to reflect reduced plant growth under saline conditions, the simulations show a significant loss of soil carbon in the past due to salinization, with a higher average loss of SOC in Australian soils (55 t C ha(-1)) than in Indian soils (31 t C ha(-1)). There was a significant negative correlation (p < 0.05) between SOC loss and osmotic potential. Simulations of future SOC stocks with the decomposition rate modifier and the plant input modifier indicate a greater decrease in SOC in saline than in non-saline soils under future climate. The simulations of past losses of SOC due to salinity were repeated using either measured charcoal-C or the inert organic matter predicted by the Falloon et al. equation to determine how much deviation from the Falloon et al. equation affects the amount of plant inputs generated by the model for the soils used in this study

Projecting future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests

Science.gov (United States)

Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K.; Flanagan, S.; Rourke, O.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

2011-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial recent progress has been made to estimate the biomass loss and resulting carbon emissions caused by hurricanes impacting the U.S. Additionally, efforts to evaluate the net effects of hurricanes on the regional carbon balance have demonstrated the importance of viewing large disturbance events in the broader context of recovery from a mosaic of past events. Viewed over sufficiently long time scales and large spatial scales, regrowth from previous storms may largely offset new emissions; however, changes in number, strength or spatial distribution of extreme disturbance events will result in changes to the equilibrium state of the ecosystem and have the potential to result in a lasting carbon source or sink. Many recent studies have linked climate change to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. In this study, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by scenarios of future hurricane activity based on historic activity and future climate projections, to evaluate how changes in hurricane frequency, intensity and spatial distribution could affect regional carbon storage and flux over the coming century. We find a non-linear response where increased storm activity reduces standing biomass stocks reducing the impacts of future events. This effect is highly dependent on the spatial pattern and repeat interval of future hurricane activity. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests.

THE US LONG BASELINE NEUTRINO EXPERIMENT STUDY.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

BISHAI,M.

2007-08-06

The US Long Baseline Neutrino Experiment Study was commissioned jointly by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL)and Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL) to investigate the potential for future U.S. based long baseline neutrino oscillation experiments using MW class conventional neutrino beams that can be produced at FNAL. The experimental baselines are based on two possible detector locations: (1) off-axis to the existing FNAL NuMI beamline at baselines of 700 to 810 km and (2) NSF's proposed future Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory (DUSEL) at baselines greater than 1000km. Two detector technologies are considered: a megaton class Water Cherenkov detector deployed deep underground at a DUSEL site, or a 100kT Liquid Argon Time-Projection Chamber (TPC) deployed on the surface at any of the proposed sites. The physics sensitivities of the proposed experiments are summarized. We find that conventional horn focused wide-band neutrino beam options from FNAL aimed at a massive detector with a baseline of > 1000km have the best sensitivity to CP violation and the neutrino mass hierarchy for values of the mixing angle {theta}{sub 13} down to 2{sup o}.

Baseline Map of Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in Tropical Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Nancy L.; Brown, Sandra; Hagen, Stephen C.; Saatchi, Sassan S.; Petrova, Silvia; Salas, William; Hansen, Matthew C.; Potapov, Peter V.; Lotsch, Alexander

2012-06-01

Policies to reduce emissions from deforestation would benefit from clearly derived, spatially explicit, statistically bounded estimates of carbon emissions. Existing efforts derive carbon impacts of land-use change using broad assumptions, unreliable data, or both. We improve on this approach using satellite observations of gross forest cover loss and a map of forest carbon stocks to estimate gross carbon emissions across tropical regions between 2000 and 2005 as 0.81 petagram of carbon per year, with a 90% prediction interval of 0.57 to 1.22 petagrams of carbon per year. This estimate is 25 to 50% of recently published estimates. By systematically matching areas of forest loss with their carbon stocks before clearing, these results serve as a more accurate benchmark for monitoring global progress on reducing emissions from deforestation.

Baseline map of carbon emissions from deforestation in tropical regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Nancy L; Brown, Sandra; Hagen, Stephen C; Saatchi, Sassan S; Petrova, Silvia; Salas, William; Hansen, Matthew C; Potapov, Peter V; Lotsch, Alexander

2012-06-22

Policies to reduce emissions from deforestation would benefit from clearly derived, spatially explicit, statistically bounded estimates of carbon emissions. Existing efforts derive carbon impacts of land-use change using broad assumptions, unreliable data, or both. We improve on this approach using satellite observations of gross forest cover loss and a map of forest carbon stocks to estimate gross carbon emissions across tropical regions between 2000 and 2005 as 0.81 petagram of carbon per year, with a 90% prediction interval of 0.57 to 1.22 petagrams of carbon per year. This estimate is 25 to 50% of recently published estimates. By systematically matching areas of forest loss with their carbon stocks before clearing, these results serve as a more accurate benchmark for monitoring global progress on reducing emissions from deforestation.

The mass-retrofitting of an energy efficient-low carbon zone: Baselining the urban regeneration strategy, vision, masterplan and redevelopment scheme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deakin, Mark; Campbell, Fiona; Reid, Alasdair

2012-01-01

This paper examines a recent attempt to reduce energy consumption and the associated levels of carbon emissions by way of and through what has been termed: “an active and integrated institutional arrangement”. That is, by the integration of a mass retrofit proposal into an urban regeneration strategy, with the vision, master-plan, programme of renewal and redevelopment scheme which is capable of transforming into an energy efficient, low carbon zone. As a case study on how institutions can plan for low energy efficient redevelopments and the possibility of low carbon zones, the paper highlights the current state of the art on mass retrofits within the residential property sector and draws particular attention to the type of baseline assessments needed to legitimate, not only the strategic value of such arrangements, but their practical worth as measures capable of meeting emission targets set under the 2008 UK Climate Bill.

Carbon and environmental footprinting of low carbon UK electricity futures to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alderson, Helen; Cranston, Gemma R.; Hammond, Geoffrey P.

2012-01-01

Electricity generation contributes a large proportion of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the United Kingdom (UK), due to the predominant use of fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) combustion for this purpose. A range of future UK energy scenarios has been employed to determine their resulting environmental and carbon footprints. Methodologies have been established to calculate these footprints for the UK electricity supply industry on both a historic timescale and in accordance with the three selected scenarios. The latter scenarios, developed by the UK SUPERGEN Consortium on ‘Highly Distributed Power Systems’ (HDPS), were characterised as ‘Business As Usual’ (BAU), ‘Low Carbon’ (LC) and ‘Deep Green’ (DG) futures, and yielded possible electricity demands out to 2050. It was found that the environmental footprint of the current power network is 41 million (M) global hectares (gha). If future trends follow a ‘Business As Usual’ scenario, then this footprint is observed to fall to about 25 Mgha in 2050. The LC scenario implies an extensive penetration of micro-generators in the home to satisfy heat and power demands. However, these energy requirements are minimised by way of improved insulation of the building fabric and other demand reduction measures. In contrast, the DG scenario presupposes a network where centralised renewable energy technologies – mainly large-scale onshore and offshore wind turbines - have an important role in the power generation. However, both the LC and DG scenarios were found to lead to footprints of less than 4 Mgha by 2050. These latter two scenarios were found to give rise to quite similar trajectories over the period 2010–2050. They are therefore more likely to reflect an effective transition pathway in terms of meeting the 2050 UK CO 2 reduction targets associated with decarbonisation of its power network. However, this appears unlikely to be achieved by 2030–2040 as advocated by the UK Government

Taking Stock of Circumboreal Forest Carbon With Ground Measurements, Airborne and Spaceborne LiDAR

Science.gov (United States)

Neigh, Christopher S. R.; Nelson, Ross F.; Ranson, K. Jon; Margolis, Hank A.; Montesano, Paul M.; Sun, Guoqing; Kharuk, Viacheslav; Naesset, Erik; Wulder, Michael A.; Andersen, Hans-Erik

2013-01-01

The boreal forest accounts for one-third of global forests, but remains largely inaccessible to ground-based measurements and monitoring. It contains large quantities of carbon in its vegetation and soils, and research suggests that it will be subject to increasingly severe climate-driven disturbance. We employ a suite of ground-, airborne- and space-based measurement techniques to derive the first satellite LiDAR-based estimates of aboveground carbon for the entire circumboreal forest biome. Incorporating these inventory techniques with uncertainty analysis, we estimate total aboveground carbon of 38 +/- 3.1 Pg. This boreal forest carbon is mostly concentrated from 50 to 55degN in eastern Canada and from 55 to 60degN in eastern Eurasia. Both of these regions are expected to warm >3 C by 2100, and monitoring the effects of warming on these stocks is important to understanding its future carbon balance. Our maps establish a baseline for future quantification of circumboreal carbon and the described technique should provide a robust method for future monitoring of the spatial and temporal changes of the aboveground carbon content.

Assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

2013-01-01

This paper employs a novel Monte-Carlo based generation portfolio assessment tool to explore the implications of increasing wind penetration and carbon prices within future electricity generation portfolios under considerable uncertainty. This tool combines optimal generation mix techniques with Monte Carlo simulation and portfolio analysis methods to determine expected overall generation costs, associated cost uncertainty and expected CO 2 emissions for different possible generation portfolios. A case study of an electricity industry with coal, Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT), Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGT) and wind generation options that faces uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing, electricity demand and plant construction costs is presented to illustrate some of the key issues associated with growing wind penetrations. The case study uses half-hourly demand and wind generation data from South Eastern Australia, and regional estimates of new-build plant costs and characteristics. Results suggest that although wind generation generally increases overall industry costs, it reduces associated cost uncertainties and CO 2 emissions. However, there are some cases in which wind generation can reduce the overall costs of generation portfolios. The extent to which wind penetration affects industry expected costs and uncertainties depends on the level of carbon price and the conventional technology mix in the portfolios. - Highlights: ► A probabilistic portfolio analysis tool to assess generation portfolios with wind power. ► Explore the impacts of wind penetrations and carbon prices under uncertainties. ► Wind generation increases overall portfolio costs but reduces cost risks and emissions. ► The value of wind power depends on the carbon price and the technology mix. ► Complex interactions between wind penetration level and carbon pricing.

2016 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Wesley; Kurup, Parthiv; Hand, Maureen; Feldman, David; Sigrin, Benjamin; Lantz, Eric; Stehly, Tyler; Augustine, Chad; Turchi, Craig; O' Connor, Patrick; Waldoch, Connor

2016-09-01

Consistent cost and performance data for various electricity generation technologies can be difficult to find and may change frequently for certain technologies. With the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB), National Renewable Energy Laboratory provides an organized and centralized dataset that was reviewed by internal and external experts. It uses the best information from the Department of Energy laboratory's renewable energy analysts and Energy Information Administration information for conventional technologies. The ATB will be updated annually in order to provide an up-to-date repository of current and future cost and performance data. Going forward, we plan to revise and refine the values using best available information. The ATB includes both a presentation with notes (PDF) and an associated Excel Workbook. The ATB includes the following electricity generation technologies: land-based wind; offshore wind; utility-scale solar PV; concentrating solar power; geothermal power; hydropower plants (upgrades to existing facilities, powering non-powered dams, and new stream-reach development); conventional coal; coal with carbon capture and sequestration; integrated gasification combined cycle coal; natural gas combustion turbines; natural gas combined cycle; conventional biopower. Nuclear laboratory's renewable energy analysts and Energy Information Administration information for conventional technologies. The ATB will be updated annually in order to provide an up-to-date repository of current and future cost and performance data. Going forward, we plan to revise and refine the values using best available information.

Environmental baselines: preparing for shale gas in the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Bloomfield, John; Manamsa, Katya; Bell, Rachel; Darling, George; Dochartaigh, Brighid O.; Stuart, Marianne; Ward, Rob

2014-05-01

Groundwater is a vital source of freshwater in the UK. It provides almost 30% of public water supply on average, but locally, for example in south-east England, it is constitutes nearly 90% of public supply. In addition to public supply, groundwater has a number of other uses including agriculture, industry, and food and drink production. It is also vital for maintaining river flows especially during dry periods and so is essential for maintaining ecosystem health. Recently, there have been concerns expressed about the potential impacts of shale gas development on groundwater. The UK has abundant shales and clays which are currently the focus of considerable interest and there is active research into their characterisation, resource evaluation and exploitation risks. The British Geological Survey (BGS) is undertaking research to provide information to address some of the environmental concerns related to the potential impacts of shale gas development on groundwater resources and quality. The aim of much of this initial work is to establish environmental baselines, such as a baseline survey of methane occurrence in groundwater (National methane baseline study) and the spatial relationships between potential sources and groundwater receptors (iHydrogeology project), prior to any shale gas exploration and development. The poster describes these two baseline studies and presents preliminary findings. BGS are currently undertaking a national survey of baseline methane concentrations in groundwater across the UK. This work will enable any potential future changes in methane in groundwater associated with shale gas development to be assessed. Measurements of methane in potable water from the Cretaceous, Jurassic and Triassic carbonate and sandstone aquifers are variable and reveal methane concentrations of up to 500 micrograms per litre, but the mean value is relatively low at documented in the range 2km. The geological modelling process will be presented and discussed

Decomposing the impact of alternative technology sets on future carbon emissions growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Schu, Kathryn; Sue Wing, Ian; Calvin, Katherine

2012-01-01

What are the drivers of future global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions growth and how would the availability of key energy supply technologies change their relative importance? In this paper, we apply a novel index number decomposition technique to the results of a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model to quantify the influence of five factors on the growth of future carbon emissions: (1) growth in global economic activity; (2) shifts in the regional composition of gross world product; (3) shifts in the sectoral composition of regions' GDP; (4) changes in sectors' energy–output ratios; and (5) changes in the CO 2 intensity of energy sources. We elucidate how the relative importance of these factors changes in response to the imposition of a global carbon tax and alternative assumptions about the future availability of key energy supply technologies. Rising global economic activity and shifts in regional composition put upward pressure on emissions while changes in energy and emission intensity and the sectoral output mix have attenuating effects. A global emission tax that increases over time slows economic expansion and shifts the fuel mix, with the most pronounced impacts on China, India, and Russia. Limited availability of carbon capture and storage, nuclear, and hydroelectric generation all lead to upward shifts in the long-run marginal abatement cost curve, causing some countries to choose to pay the tax rather than abate. - Highlights: ► Index number decomposition is used to quantify the influence of five factors. ► The relative importance of these factors in response to alternative assumptions is measured. ► A global emission tax that increases over time slows economic expansion and shifts the fuel mix. ► Limited technology availability mean some countries to choose to pay the tax rather than abate.

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use: Recent performance and future prospects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jefferson, Michael

1998-12-01

This publication gives an overview and discusses carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use worldwide. Main themes discussed in this connection cover recent performance and future prospects. Some proposals on the reduction of CO{sub 2} emissions are given

Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration in National Parks: Values for the Conterminous United States

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Leslie A.; Huber, Christopher; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Koontz, Lynne

2015-01-01

Lands managed by the National Park Service (NPS) provide a wide range of beneficial services to the American public. This study quantifies the ecosystem service value of carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems within NPS units in the conterminous United States for which data were available. Combining annual net carbon balance data with spatially explicit NPS land unit boundaries and social cost of carbon estimates, this study calculates the net metric tons of carbon dioxide sequestered annually by park unit under baseline conditions, as well as the associated economic value to society. Results show that, in aggregate, NPS lands in the conterminous United States are a net carbon sink, sequestering more than 14.8 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually. The associated societal value of this service is estimated at approximately $582.5 million per year. While this analysis provides a broad overview of the annual value of carbon sequestration on NPS lands averaged over a five year baseline period, it should be noted that carbon fluxes fluctuate from year to year, and there can be considerable variation in net carbon balance and its associated value within a given park unit. Future research could look in-depth at the spatial heterogeneity of carbon flux within specific NPS land units.

Can conservation funding be left to carbon finance? Evidence from participatory future land use scenarios in Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Ravikumar, Ashwin; Larjavaara, Markku; Larson, Anne; Kanninen, Markku

2017-01-01

Revenues derived from carbon have been seen as an important tool for supporting forest conservation over the past decade. At the same time, there is high uncertainty about how much revenue can reasonably be expected from land use emissions reductions initiatives. Despite this uncertainty, REDD+ projects and conservation initiatives that aim to take advantage of available or, more commonly, future funding from carbon markets have proliferated. This study used participatory multi-stakeholder workshops to develop divergent future scenarios of land use in eight landscapes in four countries around the world: Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico. The results of these future scenario building exercises were analyzed using a new tool, CarboScen, for calculating the landscape carbon storage implications of different future land use scenarios. The findings suggest that potential revenues from carbon storage or emissions reductions are significant in some landscapes (most notably the peat forests of Indonesia), and much less significant in others (such as the low-carbon forests of Zanzibar and the interior of Tanzania). The findings call into question the practicality of many conservation programs that hinge on expectations of future revenue from carbon finance. The future scenarios-based approach is useful to policy-makers and conservation program developers in distinguishing between landscapes where carbon finance can substantially support conservation, and landscapes where other strategies for conservation and land use should be prioritized.

Wind power projects in the CDM: Methodologies and tools for baselines, carbon financing and substainability analysis[CDM=Clean Development Mechanism

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ringius, L.; Grohnheit, P.E.; Nielsen, L.H.; Olivier, A.L.; Painuly, J.; Villavicencio, A.

2002-12-01

The report is intended to be a guidance document for project developers, investors, lenders, and CDM host countries involved in wind power projects in the CDM. The report explores in particular those issues that are important in CDM project assessment and development - that is, baseline development, carbon financing, and environmental sustainability. It does not deal in detail with those issues that are routinely covered in a standard wind power project assessment. The report tests, compares, and recommends methodologies for and approaches to baseline development. To present the application and implications of the various methodologies and approaches in a concrete context, Africa's largest wind farm-namely the 60 MW wind farm located in Zafarana, Egypt- is examined as a hypothetical CDM wind power project The report shows that for the present case example there is a difference of about 25% between the lowest (0.5496 tCO2/MWh) and the highest emission rate (0.6868 tCO{sub 2}/MWh) estimated in accordance with these three standardized approaches to baseline development according to the Marrakesh Accord. This difference in emission factors comes about partly as a result of including hydroelectric power in the baseline scenario. Hydroelectric resources constitute around 21% of the generation capacity in Egypt, and, if excluding hydropower, the difference between the lowest and the highest baseline is reduced to 18%. Furthermore, since the two variations of the 'historical' baseline option examined result in the highest and the lowest baselines, by disregarding this baseline option altogether the difference between the lowest and the highest is reduced to 16%. The ES3-model, which the Systems Analysis Department at Risoe National Laboratory has developed, makes it possible for this report to explore the project-specific approach to baseline development in some detail. Based on quite disaggregated data on the Egyptian electricity system, including the wind

Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bang Selsted, M

2010-07-15

Global change is a reality. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels are rising as well as mean global temperature and precipitation patterns are changing. These three environmental factors have separately and in combination effect on ecosystem processes. Terrestrial ecosystems hold large amounts of carbon, why understanding plant and soil responses to such changes are necessary, as ecosystems potentially can ameliorate or accelerate global change. To predict the feedback of ecosystems to the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations experiments imitating global change effects are therefore an important tool. This work on ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions, shows that extended summer drought in combination with elevated temperature will ensure permanent dryer soil conditions, which decreases carbon turnover, while elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations will increase carbon turnover. In the full future climate scenario, carbon turnover is over all expected to increase and the heathland to become a source of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. The methodology of static chamber CO{sub 2} flux measurements and applying the technology in a FACE (free air CO{sub 2} enrichment) facility is a challenge. Fluxes of CO{sub 2} from soil to atmosphere depend on a physical equilibrium between those two medias, why it is important to keep the CO{sub 2} gradient between soil and atmosphere unchanged during measurement. Uptake to plants via photosynthesis depends on a physiological process, which depends strongly on the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration. Photosynthesis and respiration run in parallel during measurements of net ecosystem exchange, and these measurements should therefore be performed with care to both the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration and the CO{sub 2} soil-atmosphere gradient. (author)

Carbon dioxide and future climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mitchell, J M

1977-03-01

The addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere due to burning fossil fuel is discussed. The release rate of carbon dioxide has been growing since at least 1950 at an average rate of 4.3% per year. If all known fossil fuel reserves in the world are consumed, a total of between 5 and 14 times the present amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will be released. The oceans would then be unlikely to withdraw the proportion of perhaps 40% which they are believed to have withdrawn up to the present. The increase in the atmosphere would be in excess of 3 times or conceivably ten times the present amount. If the reserves are used up within a few hundred years, more than half the excess carbon dioxide would remain in the atmosphere after a thousand years. The ''greenhouse'' effect of carbon dioxide is explained. The simulation with numerical models of the effects of carbon dioxide on atmospheric radiation fluxes is discussed. An estimated increase in the average annual temperature of the earth of 2.4 to 2.9C is given for doubling the carbon dioxide content; also a 7% increase in global average precipitation. The effect of increasing carbon dioxide on global mean temperature is viewed in the perspective of the glacial-interglacial cycles. The warming effect of carbon dioxide may induce a ''super-interglacial'' on the present interglacial which is expected to decline toward a new ice age in the next several thousand years. Finally it is proposed that it may be necessary to phase out the use of fossil fuels before all the knowledge is acquired which would necessitate such an action.

Data sets used in the analysis presented in the manuscript “Regional and Hemispheric Influences on Temporal Variability in Baseline Carbon Monoxide and Ozone over the Northeast US”

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset documents that all of the data analyzed in the manuscript "Regional and Hemispheric Influences on Temporal Variability in Baseline Carbon Monoxide and...

Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils: a potential carbon trading opportunity?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cowie, Annette L.; Murphy, Brian; Rawson, Andrew; Wilson, Brian; Singh, Bhupinderpal; Young, Rick; Grange, Ian

2007-01-01

pools, and modelling informed by baseline measurements and good understanding of the factors driving soil carbon dynamics Models are being developed, and require further parameterisation. The third requirement is an effective system for assessing compliance, which could be based on evidence that practices have been implemented, rather than an audit of soil carbon stocks. Other matters to be considered include a mechanism to deal with non-permanence (because soil carbon is vulnerable to future loss) and the creation of a fungible trading unit. It is anticipated that current research efforts, model development and progress in devising effective emissions trading mechanisms will enable a system for emissions trading based on soil carbon management to be implemented in Australia

Long baseline neutrino oscillation experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallagher, H.

2006-01-01

In this paper I will review briefly the experimental results which established the existence of neutrino mixing, the current generation of long baseline accelerator experiments, and the prospects for the future. In particular I will focus on the recent analysis of the MINOS experiment. (author)

Baseline monitoring of the western Arctic Ocean estimates 20% of Canadian basin surface waters are undersaturated with respect to aragonite.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lisa L Robbins

Full Text Available Marine surface waters are being acidified due to uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, resulting in surface ocean areas of undersaturation with respect to carbonate minerals, including aragonite. In the Arctic Ocean, acidification is expected to occur at an accelerated rate with respect to the global oceans, but a paucity of baseline data has limited our understanding of the extent of Arctic undersaturation and of regional variations in rates and causes. The lack of data has also hindered refinement of models aimed at projecting future trends of ocean acidification. Here, based on more than 34,000 data records collected in 2010 and 2011, we establish a baseline of inorganic carbon data (pH, total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, partial pressure of carbon dioxide, and aragonite saturation index for the western Arctic Ocean. This data set documents aragonite undersaturation in ≈ 20% of the surface waters of the combined Canada and Makarov basins, an area characterized by recent acceleration of sea ice loss. Conservative tracer studies using stable oxygen isotopic data from 307 sites show that while the entire surface of this area receives abundant freshwater from meteoric sources, freshwater from sea ice melt is most closely linked to the areas of carbonate mineral undersaturation. These data link the Arctic Ocean's largest area of aragonite undersaturation to sea ice melt and atmospheric CO2 absorption in areas of low buffering capacity. Some relatively supersaturated areas can be linked to localized biological activity. Collectively, these observations can be used to project trends of ocean acidification in higher latitude marine surface waters where inorganic carbon chemistry is largely influenced by sea ice meltwater.

The LandCarbon Web Application: Advanced Geospatial Data Delivery and Visualization Tools for Communication about Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, N.; Galey, B.; Zhu, Z.; Sleeter, B. M.; Lehmer, E.

2015-12-01

The LandCarbon web application (http://landcarbon.org) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey and U.C. Berkeley's Geospatial Innovation Facility (GIF). The LandCarbon project is a national assessment focused on improved understanding of carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas fluxes in and out of ecosystems related to land use, using scientific capabilities from USGS and other organizations. The national assessment is conducted at a regional scale, covers all 50 states, and incorporates data from remote sensing, land change studies, aquatic and wetland data, hydrological and biogeochemical modeling, and wildfire mapping to estimate baseline and future potential carbon storage and greenhouse gas fluxes. The LandCarbon web application is a geospatial portal that allows for a sophisticated data delivery system as well as a suite of engaging tools that showcase the LandCarbon data using interactive web based maps and charts. The web application was designed to be flexible and accessible to meet the needs of a variety of users. Casual users can explore the input data and results of the assessment for a particular area of interest in an intuitive and interactive map, without the need for specialized software. Users can view and interact with maps, charts, and statistics that summarize the baseline and future potential carbon storage and fluxes for U.S. Level 2 Ecoregions for 3 IPCC emissions scenarios. The application allows users to access the primary data sources and assessment results for viewing and download, and also to learn more about the assessment's objectives, methods, and uncertainties through published reports and documentation. The LandCarbon web application is built on free and open source libraries including Django and D3. The GIF has developed the Django-Spillway package, which facilitates interactive visualization and serialization of complex geospatial raster data. The underlying LandCarbon data is available through an open application

Physics Potential of Long-Baseline Experiments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanjib Kumar Agarwalla

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The discovery of neutrino mixing and oscillations over the past decade provides firm evidence for new physics beyond the Standard Model. Recently, θ13 has been determined to be moderately large, quite close to its previous upper bound. This represents a significant milestone in establishing the three-flavor oscillation picture of neutrinos. It has opened up exciting prospects for current and future long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments towards addressing the remaining fundamental questions, in particular the type of the neutrino mass hierarchy and the possible presence of a CP-violating phase. Another recent and crucial development is the indication of non-maximal 2-3 mixing angle, causing the octant ambiguity of θ23. In this paper, I will review the phenomenology of long-baseline neutrino oscillations with a special emphasis on sub-leading three-flavor effects, which will play a crucial role in resolving these unknowns. First, I will give a brief description of neutrino oscillation phenomenon. Then, I will discuss our present global understanding of the neutrino mass-mixing parameters and will identify the major unknowns in this sector. After that, I will present the physics reach of current generation long-baseline experiments. Finally, I will conclude with a discussion on the physics capabilities of accelerator-driven possible future long-baseline precision oscillation facilities.

Effects of fuel and forest conservation on future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, J C; Kasting, J F

1992-01-01

We develop a numerical simulation of the global biogeochemical cycles of carbon that works over time scales extending from years to millions of years. The ocean is represented by warm and cold shallow water reservoirs, a thermocline reservoir, and deep Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific reservoirs. The atmosphere is characterized by a single carbon reservoir and the global biota by a single biomass reservoir. The simulation includes the rock cycle, distinguishing between shelf carbonate and pelagic carbonate precipitation, with distinct lysocline depths in the three deep ocean reservoirs. Dissolution of pelagic carbonates in response to decrease in lysocline depth is included. The simulation is tuned to reproduce the observed radiocarbon record resulting from atomic weapon testing. It is tuned also to reproduce the distribution of dissolved phosphate and total dissolved carbon between the ocean reservoirs as well as the carbon isotope ratios for both 13C and 14C in ocean and atmosphere. The simulation reproduces reasonably well the historical record of carbon dioxide partial pressure as well as the atmospheric isotope ratios for 13C and 14C over the last 200 yr as these have changed in response to fossil fuel burning and land use changes, principally forest clearance. The agreements between observation and calculation involves the assumption of a carbon dioxide fertilization effect in which the rate of production of biomass increases with increasing carbon dioxide partial pressure. At present the fertilization effect of increased carbon dioxide outweighs the effects of forest clearance, so the biota comprises an overall sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide sufficiently large to bring the budget approximately into balance. This simulation is used to examine the future evolution of carbon dioxide and its sensitivity to assumptions about the rate of fossil fuel burning and of forest clearance. Over times extending up to thousands of years, the results are insensitive to the

Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Quesada, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Robertson, Eddy; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie

2018-06-01

Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by ~49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust +4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African rainforests. Finally, in most carbon cycle responses, direct removal of C dominates over the indirect CO2 fertilization due to LULCC. In consequence, projections of land C sequestration potential and Earth’s greening could be substantially overestimated just because of not fully accounting for LULCC.

"Days of future passed" - climate change and carbon cycle history (Jean Baptiste Lamarck Medal Lecture)

Science.gov (United States)

Weissert, Helmut

2013-04-01

With the beginning of the fossil fuel age in the 19th century mankind has become an important geological agent on a global scale. For the first time in human history action of man has an impact on global biogeochemical cycles. Increasing CO2 concentrations will result in a perturbation of global carbon cycling coupled with climate change. Investigations of past changes in carbon cycling and in climate will improve our predictions of future climate. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will drive climate into a mode of operation, which may resemble climate conditions in the deep geological past. Pliocene climate will give insight into 400ppm world with higher global sea level than today. Doubling of pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 levels will shift the climate system into a state resembling greenhouse climate in the Early Cenozoic or even in the Cretaceous. Carbon isotope geochemistry serves as tool for tracing the pathway of the carbon cycle through geological time. Globally registered negative C-isotope anomalies in the C-isotope record are interpreted as signatures of rapid addition (103 to a few 104 years) of CO2 to the ocean-atmosphere system. Positive C-isotope excursions following negative spikes record the slow post-perturbation recovery of the biosphere at time scales of 105 to 106 years. Duration of C-cycle perturbations in earth history cannot be directly compared with rapid perturbation characterizing the Anthropocene. However, the investigation of greenhouse pulses in the geological past provides insight into different climate states, it allows to identify tipping points in past climate systems and it offers the opportunity to learn about response reactions of the biosphere to rapid changes in global carbon cycling. Sudden injection of massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is recorded in C-isotope record of the Early Cretaceous. The Aptian carbon cycle perturbation triggered changes in temperature and in global hydrological cycling

Exploring non standard physics in long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatterjee, Sabya Sachi

2015-01-01

After the recent discovery of large th ( 13), the focus has been shifted to address the remaining fundamental issues like neutrino mass ordering and CP-violation in leptonic sector. Future proposed Long-Baseline facilities like DUNE (1300 km baseline from FNAL to Homestake) and LBNO (2290 km baseline from CERN to Pyhasalmi) are well suited to address these issues at high confidence level. Not only to the standard framework, these experiments are highly capable to look for some new physics beyond the Standard Model scenario. In this work, we explore whether these high precision future facilities are sensitive to new U(1) global symmetries and upto which confidence level. (author)

Baseline monitoring of the western Arctic Ocean estimates 20% of the Canadian Basin surface waters are undersaturated with respect to aragonite

Science.gov (United States)

Robbins, Lisa L.; Wynn, Jonathan G.; Lisle, John T.; Yates, Kimberly K.; Knorr, Paul O.; Byrne, Robert H.; Liu, Xuewu; Patsavas, Mark C.; Azetsu-Scott, Kumiko; Takahashi, Taro

2013-01-01

Marine surface waters are being acidified due to uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, resulting in surface ocean areas of undersaturation with respect to carbonate minerals, including aragonite. In the Arctic Ocean, acidification is expected to occur at an accelerated rate with respect to the global oceans, but a paucity of baseline data has limited our understanding of the extent of Arctic undersaturation and of regional variations in rates and causes. The lack of data has also hindered refinement of models aimed at projecting future trends of ocean acidification. Here, based on more than 34,000 data records collected in 2010 and 2011, we establish a baseline of inorganic carbon data (pH, total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, partial pressure of carbon dioxide, and aragonite saturation index) for the western Arctic Ocean. This data set documents aragonite undersaturation in ~20% of the surface waters of the combined Canada and Makarov basins, an area characterized by recent acceleration of sea ice loss. Conservative tracer studies using stable oxygen isotopic data from 307 sites show that while the entire surface of this area receives abundant freshwater from meteoric sources, freshwater from sea ice melt is most closely linked to the areas of carbonate mineral undersaturation. These data link the Arctic Ocean’s largest area of aragonite undersaturation to sea ice melt and atmospheric CO2 absorption in areas of low buffering capacity. Some relatively supersaturated areas can be linked to localized biological activity. Collectively, these observations can be used to project trends of ocean acidification in higher latitude marine surface waters where inorganic carbon chemistry is largely influenced by sea ice meltwater.

Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana

2018-01-01

We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50-65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.

STATUS OF THE US LONG BASELINE NEUTRINO EXPERIMENT STUDY.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

BISHAI,M.

2006-09-21

The US Long Baseline Neutrino Experiment Study was commissioned jointly by Brookhaven National Laboratory and Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory to investigate the potential for future U.S. based long baseline neutrino oscillation experiments beyond the currently planned program. The Study focused on MW class convention at neutrino beams that can be produced at Fermilab or BNL. The experimental baselines are based on two possible detector locations: (1) off-axis to the existing Fermilab NuMI beamline at baselines of 700 to 810 km and (2) NSF's proposed future Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory (DUSEL) at baselines greater than 1000 km. Two detector technologies are considered: a megaton class Water Cherenkov detector deployed deep underground at a DUSEL site, or a 100kT Liquid Argon Time-Projection Chamber (TPC) deployed on the surface at any of the proposed sites. The physics sensitivities of the proposed experiments are summarized. We find that conventional horn focused wide-band neutrino beam options from Fermilab or BNL aimed at a massive detector with a baseline of > 1000 km have the best sensitivity to CP violation and the neutrino mass hierarchy for values of the mixing angle {theta}{sub 13} down to 2.2{sup o}.

Carbon and Nitrogen Isotopic Survey of Northern Peruvian Plants: Baselines for Paleodietary and Paleoecological Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Szpak, Paul; White, Christine D.; Longstaffe, Fred J.; Millaire, Jean-François; Vásquez Sánchez, Víctor F.

2013-01-01

The development of isotopic baselines for comparison with paleodietary data is crucial, but often overlooked. We review the factors affecting the carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotopic compositions of plants, with a special focus on the carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions of twelve different species of cultivated plants (n = 91) and 139 wild plant species collected in northern Peru. The cultivated plants were collected from nineteen local markets. The mean δ13C value for maize (grain) was −11.8±0.4 ‰ (n = 27). Leguminous cultigens (beans, Andean lupin) were characterized by significantly lower δ15N values and significantly higher %N than non-leguminous cultigens. Wild plants from thirteen sites were collected in the Moche River Valley area between sea level and ∼4,000 meters above sea level (masl). These sites were associated with mean annual precipitation ranging from 0 to 710 mm. Plants growing at low altitude sites receiving low amounts of precipitation were characterized by higher δ15N values than plants growing at higher altitudes and receiving higher amounts of precipitation, although this trend dissipated when altitude was >2,000 masl and MAP was >400 mm. For C3 plants, foliar δ13C was positively correlated with altitude and precipitation. This suggests that the influence of altitude may overshadow the influence of water availability on foliar δ13C values at this scale. PMID:23341996

Carbon and nitrogen isotopic survey of northern peruvian plants: baselines for paleodietary and paleoecological studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Szpak

Full Text Available The development of isotopic baselines for comparison with paleodietary data is crucial, but often overlooked. We review the factors affecting the carbon (δ(13C and nitrogen (δ(15N isotopic compositions of plants, with a special focus on the carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions of twelve different species of cultivated plants (n = 91 and 139 wild plant species collected in northern Peru. The cultivated plants were collected from nineteen local markets. The mean δ(13C value for maize (grain was -11.8±0.4 ‰ (n = 27. Leguminous cultigens (beans, Andean lupin were characterized by significantly lower δ(15N values and significantly higher %N than non-leguminous cultigens. Wild plants from thirteen sites were collected in the Moche River Valley area between sea level and ∼4,000 meters above sea level (masl. These sites were associated with mean annual precipitation ranging from 0 to 710 mm. Plants growing at low altitude sites receiving low amounts of precipitation were characterized by higher δ(15N values than plants growing at higher altitudes and receiving higher amounts of precipitation, although this trend dissipated when altitude was >2,000 masl and MAP was >400 mm. For C(3 plants, foliar δ(13C was positively correlated with altitude and precipitation. This suggests that the influence of altitude may overshadow the influence of water availability on foliar δ(13C values at this scale.

Current and future impacts of ultraviolet radiation on the terrestrial carbon balance

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

W. Kolby SMITH; Wei GAO; Heidi STELTZER

2009-01-01

One of the most documented effects of human activity on our environment is the reduction of stratospheric ozone resulting in an increase of biologically harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation. In a less predictable manner, UV radiation incident at the surface of the earth is expected to be further modified in the future as a result of altered cloud condition, atmospheric aerosol concentration, and snow cover. Although UV radiation comprises only a small fraction of the total solar radiation that is incident at the earth's surface, it has the greatest energy per unit wavelength and, thus, the greatest potential to damage the biosphere. Recent investigations have highlighted numerous ways that UV radiation could potentially affect a variety of ecological processes, including nutrient cycling and the terrestrial carbon cycle. The objectives of the following literature review are to summarize and synthesize the available information relevant to the effects of UV radiation and other climate change factors on the terrestrial carbon balance in an effort to highlight current gaps in knowledge and future research directions for UV radiation research.

Carbon dioxide emissions from Russia's electricity sector: future scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steenhof, Paul A.; Hill, Malcolm R.

2006-01-01

This article investigates future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for Russia's electricity sector, a topic of importance since Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in November 2004. Eleven scenarios are constructed to the year 2020 considering economic and technological details in both the demand and supply sides of the sector. The scenarios are based upon a thorough review of the different factors controlling carbon dioxide emissions, including potential economic growth, changes in energy efficiency and technological development, and that Russia may export large amounts of natural gas to European and Asian markets. The most likely scenario is that Russia will double industrial output over the next 10 years, increase energy efficiency in the demand sector, will remain consistent to the goals of the Energy Strategy 2020 and will implement more efficient technology in the electricity supply sector. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions will still be 102 million tonnes below 1990 levels in 2010, representing a significant source for emission reduction credits available to be sold on international markets or transferred to the next crediting period. (Author)

Projecting the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests (1851-2100)

Science.gov (United States)

Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.

2009-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Estimates of the carbon emissions resulting from single storms range as high as ~100 Tg C, an amount equivalent to the annual U.S. carbon sink in forest trees. Recent studies have estimated the historic regional carbon emissions from hurricane activity using an empirically based approach. Here, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by maps of mortality and damage based on historic hurricane tracks and future scenarios to predict the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests. Model estimates compare well to previous empirically based estimates, with mean annual biomass loss of 26 Tg C yr-1 (range 0 to ~225 Tg C yr-1) resulting from hurricanes during the period 1851-2000. Using the mechanistic model, we are able to include the effects of both disturbance and recovery on the net carbon flux. We find a regional carbon sink throughout much of the 20th century resulting from forest recovery following a peak in hurricane activity during the late 19th century exceeding biomass loss. Recent increased hurricane activity has resulted in the region becoming a net carbon source. For the future, several recent studies have linked increased sea surface temperatures expected with climate change to increased hurricane activity. Based on these relationships, we investigate a range of scenarios of future hurricane activity and find the potential for substantial increases in emissions from hurricane mortality and reductions in regional carbon stocks. In our scenario with the largest increase in hurricane activity, we find a 35% increase in area disturbed by 2100, but due to the reduction of standing biomass, only a 20% increase in biomass loss per year. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and

Modeling the Effects of Drought, Fire, Beetles, and Management on Future Carbon Cycling in the Western US

Science.gov (United States)

Buotte, P.; Law, B. E.; Hicke, J. A.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Levis, S.; Kent, J.

2017-12-01

Fire and beetle outbreaks can have substantial impacts on forest structure, composition, and function and these types of disturbances are expected to increase in the future. Therefore understanding the ecological impacts of these disturbances into the future is important. We used ecosystem process modeling to estimate the future occurrence of fire and beetle outbreaks and their impacts on forest resilience and carbon sequestration. We modified the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to better represent forest growth and mortality in the western US through multiple avenues: 1) we increased the ecological resolution to recognize 14 forest types common to the region; 2) we improved CLM4.5's ability to handle drought stress by adding forest type-specific controls on stomatal conductance and increased rates of leaf shed during periods of low soil moisture; 3) we developed and implemented a mechanistic model of beetle population growth and subsequent tree mortality; 4) we modified the current fire module to account for more refined forest types; and 5) we developed multiple scenarios of harvest based on past harvest rates and proposed changes in land management policies. We ran CLM4.5 in offline mode with climate forcing data. We compare future forest growth rates and carbon sequestration with historical metrics to estimate the combined influence of future disturbances on forest composition and carbon sequestration in the western US.

New and future developments in catalysis activation of carbon dioxide

CERN Document Server

Suib, Steven L

2013-01-01

New and Future Developments in Catalysis is a package of books that compile the latest ideas concerning alternate and renewable energy sources and the role that catalysis plays in converting new renewable feedstock into biofuels and biochemicals. Both homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysts and catalytic processes will be discussed in a unified and comprehensive approach. There will be extensive cross-referencing within all volumes. This volume presents a complete picture of all carbon dioxide (CO2) sources, outlines the environmental concerns regarding CO2, and critica

Impact of Idealized Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on the Future Ocean and Land Carbon Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Tjiputra, J.; Lauvset, S.

2017-12-01

Using a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we simulate stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on top of the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 future scenario. Our idealized method prescribes aerosol concentration, linearly increasing from 2020 to 2100, and thereafter remaining constant until 2200. In one of the scenarios, the model able to project future warming below 2 degree toward 2100, despite greatier warming persists in the high latitudes. When SAI is terminated in 2100, a rapid global warming of 0.35 K yr-1 (as compared to 0.05 K yr-1 under RCP8.5) is simulated in the subsequent 10 years, and the global mean temperature rapidly returns to levels close to the reference state. In contrast to earlier findings, we show a weak response in the terrestrial carbon sink during SAI implementation in the 21st century, which we attribute to nitrogen limitation. The SAI increases the land carbon uptake in the temperate forest-, grassland-, and shrub-dominated regions. The resultant lower temperatures lead to a reduction in the heterotrophic respiration rate and increase soil carbon retention. Changes in precipitation patterns are key drivers for variability in vegetation carbon. Upon SAI termination, the level of vegetation carbon storage returns to the reference case, whereas the soil carbon remains high. The ocean absorbs nearly 10% more carbon in the geoengineered simulation than in the reference simulation, leading to a ˜15 ppm lower atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2100. The largest enhancement in uptake occurs in the North Atlantic. In both hemispheres' polar regions, SAI delays the sea ice melting and, consequently, export production remains low. Despite inducing little impact on surface acidification, in the deep water of North Atlantic, SAI-induced circulation changes accelerate the ocean acidification rate and broaden the affected area. Since the deep ocean provides vital ecosystem function and services, e.g., fish stocks, this accelerated changes

Mobilizing cities towards a low-carbon future: Tambourines, carrots and sticks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azevedo, Isabel; Delarue, Erik; Meeus, Leonardo

2013-01-01

In the transition towards a low-carbon future in Europe, cities' actions are of major importance due to the prominence of urbanization, both in terms of population and in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As a result, we need city authorities to act, by using their competences as policy makers as well as energy users. However, cities are still not moving as fast as one might expect, indicating the need for additional incentives to prompt local action. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to present an overview of external incentives that might prompt cities to act and to highlight good practices that could be used in future initiatives. This paper first discusses how to evaluate the climate and energy performance of a city and how local authorities can contribute to its improvements. Moreover, it analyses the disincentives that local governments are confronted with, categorizing them as simple market failures, institutional failures and multi-agent failures. The paper then presents a survey of initiatives at national and EU levels to promote local action towards a low-carbon future; grouping them into tambourines, carrots and sticks. We focus on Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden because they are pioneering countries regarding energy policies for cities. - Highlights: • CO 2 and energy consumption could be used to evaluate the performance of cities. • Simple market, institutional and multi-agent failures are hampering local action. • National and EU actions use mainly tambourines and carrots, rather than sticks. • Covenant of Mayors is one of the most noteworthy tambourine type of instruments. • Carrots notable features are: use of competition and involvement of third-parties

Operationalizing clean development mechanism baselines: A case study of China's electrical sector

Science.gov (United States)

Steenhof, Paul A.

The global carbon market is rapidly developing as the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol draws closer and Parties to the Protocol with greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets seek alternative ways to reduce their emissions. The Protocol includes the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a tool that encourages project-based investments to be made in developing nations that will lead to an additional reduction in emissions. Due to China's economic size and rate of growth, technological characteristics, and its reliance on coal, it contains a large proportion of the global CDM potential. As China's economy modernizes, more technologies and processes are requiring electricity and demand for this energy source is accelerating rapidly. Relatively inefficient technology to generate electricity in China thereby results in the electrical sector having substantial GHG emission reduction opportunities as related to the CDM. In order to ensure the credibility of the CDM in leading to a reduction in GHG emissions, it is important that the baseline method used in the CDM approval process is scientifically sound and accessible for both others to use and for evaluation purposes. Three different methods for assessing CDM baselines and environmental additionality are investigated in the context of China's electrical sector: a method based on a historical perspective of the electrical sector (factor decomposition), a method structured upon a current perspective (operating and build margins), and a simulation of the future (dispatch analysis). Assessing future emission levels for China's electrical sector is a very challenging task given the complexity of the system, its dynamics, and that it is heavily influenced by internal and external forces, but of the different baseline methods investigated, dispatch modelling is best suited for the Chinese context as it is able to consider the important regional and temporal dimensions of its economy and its future development

Soil Carbon Residence Time in the Arctic - Potential Drivers of Past and Future Change

Science.gov (United States)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Fisher, J.; Schwalm, C. R.; Hayes, D. J.; Stofferahn, E.; Hantson, W.; Schaefer, K. M.; Fang, Y.; Michalak, A. M.; Wei, Y.

2017-12-01

Carbon residence time is one of the most important factors controlling carbon cycling in ecosystems. Residence time depends on carbon allocation and conversion among various carbon pools and the rate of organic matter decomposition; all of which rely on environmental conditions, primarily temperature and soil moisture. As a result, residence time is an emergent property of models and a strong determinant of terrestrial carbon storage capacity. However, residence time is poorly constrained in process-based models due, in part, to the lack of data with which to benchmark global-scale models in order to guide model improvements and, ultimately, reduce uncertainty in model projections. Here we focus on improving the understanding of the drivers to observed and simulated carbon residence time in the Arctic-Boreal region (ABR). Carbon-cycling in the ABR represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty in historical and future projections of land-atmosphere carbon dynamics. This uncertainty is depicted in the large spread of terrestrial biospheric model (TBM) estimates of carbon flux and ecosystem carbon pool size in this region. Recent efforts, such as the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE), have increased the availability of spatially explicit in-situ and remotely sensed carbon and ecosystem focused data products in the ABR. Together with simulations from Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we use these observations to evaluate the ability of models to capture soil carbon stocks and changes in the ABR. Specifically, we compare simulated versus observed soil carbon residence times in order to evaluate the functional response and sensitivity of modeled soil carbon stocks to changes in key environmental drivers. Understanding how simulated carbon residence time compares with observations and what drives these differences is critical for improving projections of changing carbon dynamics in the ABR and globally.

Future Long-Baseline Neutrino Facilities and Detectors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milind Diwan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We review the ongoing effort in the US, Japan, and Europe of the scientific community to study the location and the detector performance of the next-generation long-baseline neutrino facility. For many decades, research on the properties of neutrinos and the use of neutrinos to study the fundamental building blocks of matter has unveiled new, unexpected laws of nature. Results of neutrino experiments have triggered a tremendous amount of development in theory: theories beyond the standard model or at least extensions of it and development of the standard solar model and modeling of supernova explosions as well as the development of theories to explain the matter-antimatter asymmetry in the universe. Neutrino physics is one of the most dynamic and exciting fields of research in fundamental particle physics and astrophysics. The next-generation neutrino detector will address two aspects: fundamental properties of the neutrino like mass hierarchy, mixing angles, and the CP phase, and low-energy neutrino astronomy with solar, atmospheric, and supernova neutrinos. Such a new detector naturally allows for major improvements in the search for nucleon decay. A next-generation neutrino observatory needs a huge, megaton scale detector which in turn has to be installed in a new, international underground laboratory, capable of hosting such a huge detector.

Future Long-Baseline Neutrino Facilities and Detectors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diwan, Milind [Brookhaven; Edgecock, Rob [Huddersfield U.; Hasegawa, Takuya [KEK, Tsukuba; Patzak, Thomas [APC, Paris; Shiozawa, Masato [Kamioka Observ.; Strait, Jim [Fermilab

2013-01-01

We review the ongoing effort in the US, Japan, and Europe of the scientific community to study the location and the detector performance of the next-generation long-baseline neutrino facility. For many decades, research on the properties of neutrinos and the use of neutrinos to study the fundamental building blocks of matter has unveiled new, unexpected laws of nature. Results of neutrino experiments have triggered a tremendous amount of development in theory: theories beyond the standard model or at least extensions of it and development of the standard solar model and modeling of supernova explosions as well as the development of theories to explain the matter-antimatter asymmetry in the universe. Neutrino physics is one of the most dynamic and exciting fields of research in fundamental particle physics and astrophysics. The next-generation neutrino detector will address two aspects: fundamental properties of the neutrino like mass hierarchy, mixing angles, and the CP phase, and low-energy neutrino astronomy with solar, atmospheric, and supernova neutrinos. Such a new detector naturally allows for major improvements in the search for nucleon decay. A next-generation neutrino observatory needs a huge, megaton scale detector which in turn has to be installed in a new, international underground laboratory, capable of hosting such a huge detector.

Abundant pre-industrial carbon detected in Canadian Arctic headwaters: implications for the permafrost carbon feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Dean, J. F.; van der Velde, Y.; Garnett, M. H.; Dinsmore, K. J.; Baxter, R.; Lessels, J. S.; Smith, P.; Street, L. E.; Subke, J.-A.; Tetzlaff, D.; Washbourne, I.; Wookey, P. A.; Billett, M. F.

2018-03-01

Mobilization of soil/sediment organic carbon into inland waters constitutes a substantial, but poorly-constrained, component of the global carbon cycle. Radiocarbon (14C) analysis has proven a valuable tool in tracing the sources and fate of mobilized carbon, but aquatic 14C studies in permafrost regions rarely detect ‘old’ carbon (assimilated from the atmosphere into plants and soil prior to AD1950). The emission of greenhouse gases derived from old carbon by aquatic systems may indicate that carbon sequestered prior to AD1950 is being destabilized, thus contributing to the ‘permafrost carbon feedback’ (PCF). Here, we measure directly the 14C content of aquatic CO2, alongside dissolved organic carbon, in headwater systems of the western Canadian Arctic—the first such concurrent measurements in the Arctic. Age distribution analysis indicates that the age of mobilized aquatic carbon increased significantly during the 2014 snow-free season as the active layer deepened. This increase in age was more pronounced in DOC, rising from 101-228 years before sampling date (a 120%-125% increase) compared to CO2, which rose from 92-151 years before sampling date (a 59%-63% increase). ‘Pre-industrial’ aged carbon (assimilated prior to ~AD1750) comprised 15%-40% of the total aquatic carbon fluxes, demonstrating the prevalence of old carbon to Arctic headwaters. Although the presence of this old carbon is not necessarily indicative of a net positive PCF, we provide an approach and baseline data which can be used for future assessment of the PCF.

Baseline Assessment of Net Calcium Carbonate Accretion Rates on U.S. Pacific Reefs.

Science.gov (United States)

Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo; Richards, Cristi L; Vroom, Peter S; Price, Nichole N; Schils, Tom; Young, Charles W; Smith, Jennifer; Johnson, Maggie D; Brainard, Russell E

2015-01-01

This paper presents a comprehensive quantitative baseline assessment of in situ net calcium carbonate accretion rates (g CaCO3 cm(-2) yr(-1)) of early successional recruitment communities on Calcification Accretion Unit (CAU) plates deployed on coral reefs at 78 discrete sites, across 11 islands in the central and south Pacific Oceans. Accretion rates varied substantially within and between islands, reef zones, levels of wave exposure, and island geomorphology. For forereef sites, mean accretion rates were the highest at Rose Atoll, Jarvis, and Swains Islands, and the lowest at Johnston Atoll and Tutuila. A comparison between reef zones showed higher accretion rates on forereefs compared to lagoon sites; mean accretion rates were also higher on windward than leeward sites but only for a subset of islands. High levels of spatial variability in net carbonate accretion rates reported herein draw attention to the heterogeneity of the community assemblages. Percent cover of key early successional taxa on CAU plates did not reflect that of the mature communities present on surrounding benthos, possibly due to the short deployment period (2 years) of the experimental units. Yet, net CaCO3 accretion rates were positively correlated with crustose coralline algae (CCA) percent cover on the surrounding benthos and on the CAU plates, which on average represented >70% of the accreted material. For foreeefs and lagoon sites combined CaCO3 accretion rates were statistically correlated with total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a; a GAM analysis indicated that SiOH and Halimeda were the best predictor variables of accretion rates on lagoon sites, and total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a for forereef sites, demonstrating the utility of CAUs as a tool to monitor changes in reef accretion rates as they relate to ocean acidification. This study underscores the pivotal role CCA play as a key benthic component and supporting actively calcifying reefs; high Mg-calcite exoskeletons makes CCA

Baseline Assessment of Net Calcium Carbonate Accretion Rates on U.S. Pacific Reefs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernardo Vargas-Ángel

Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive quantitative baseline assessment of in situ net calcium carbonate accretion rates (g CaCO3 cm(-2 yr(-1 of early successional recruitment communities on Calcification Accretion Unit (CAU plates deployed on coral reefs at 78 discrete sites, across 11 islands in the central and south Pacific Oceans. Accretion rates varied substantially within and between islands, reef zones, levels of wave exposure, and island geomorphology. For forereef sites, mean accretion rates were the highest at Rose Atoll, Jarvis, and Swains Islands, and the lowest at Johnston Atoll and Tutuila. A comparison between reef zones showed higher accretion rates on forereefs compared to lagoon sites; mean accretion rates were also higher on windward than leeward sites but only for a subset of islands. High levels of spatial variability in net carbonate accretion rates reported herein draw attention to the heterogeneity of the community assemblages. Percent cover of key early successional taxa on CAU plates did not reflect that of the mature communities present on surrounding benthos, possibly due to the short deployment period (2 years of the experimental units. Yet, net CaCO3 accretion rates were positively correlated with crustose coralline algae (CCA percent cover on the surrounding benthos and on the CAU plates, which on average represented >70% of the accreted material. For foreeefs and lagoon sites combined CaCO3 accretion rates were statistically correlated with total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a; a GAM analysis indicated that SiOH and Halimeda were the best predictor variables of accretion rates on lagoon sites, and total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a for forereef sites, demonstrating the utility of CAUs as a tool to monitor changes in reef accretion rates as they relate to ocean acidification. This study underscores the pivotal role CCA play as a key benthic component and supporting actively calcifying reefs; high Mg-calcite exoskeletons

Water and energy link in the cities of the future - achieving net zero carbon and pollution emissions footprint.

Science.gov (United States)

Novotny, V

2011-01-01

This article discusses the link between water conservation, reclamation, reuse and energy use as related to the goal of achieving the net zero carbon emission footprint in future sustainable cities. It defines sustainable ecocities and outlines quantitatively steps towards the reduction of energy use due to water and used water flows, management and limits in linear and closed loop water/stormwater/wastewater management systems. The three phase water energy nexus diagram may have a minimum inflection point beyond which reduction of water demand may not result in a reduction of energy and carbon emissions. Hence, water conservation is the best alternative solution to water shortages and minimizing the carbon footprint. A marginal water/energy chart is developed and proposed to assist planners in developing future ecocities and retrofitting older communities to achieve sustainability.

Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dalton, Michael; O'Neill, Brian; Prskawetz, Alexia; Jiang Leiwen; Pitkin, John

2008-01-01

Changes in the age composition of U.S. households over the next several decades could affect energy use and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, the most important greenhouse gas. This article incorporates population age structure into an energy-economic growth model with multiple dynasties of heterogeneous households. The model is used to estimate and compare effects of population aging and technical change on baseline paths of U.S. energy use, and CO 2 emissions. Results show that population aging reduces long-term emissions, by almost 40% in a low population scenario, and effects of aging on emissions can be as large, or larger than, effects of technical change in some cases. These results are derived under standard assumptions and functional forms that are used in economic growth models. The model also assumes a closed economy, substitution elasticities that are fixed, and identical across age groups, and patterns of labor supply that vary by age group, but are fixed over time

Historical baselines and the future of shell calcification for a foundation species in a changing ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Pfister, Catherine A.; Roy, Kaustuv; Wootton, Timothy J.; McCoy, Sophie J.; Paine, Robert T.; Suchanek, Tom; Sanford, Eric

2016-01-01

Seawater pH and the availability of carbonate ions are decreasing due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, posing challenges for calcifying marine species. Marine mussels are of particular concern given their role as foundation species worldwide. Here, we document shell growth and calcification patterns in Mytilus californianus, the California mussel, over millennial and decadal scales. By comparing shell thickness across the largest modern shells, the largest mussels collected in the 1960s–1970s and shells from two Native American midden sites (∼1000–2420 years BP), we found that modern shells are thinner overall, thinner per age category and thinner per unit length. Thus, the largest individuals of this species are calcifying less now than in the past. Comparisons of shell thickness in smaller individuals over the past 10–40 years, however, do not show significant shell thinning. Given our sampling strategy, these results are unlikely to simply reflect within-site variability or preservation effects. Review of environmental and biotic drivers known to affect shell calcification suggests declining ocean pH as a likely explanation for the observed shell thinning. Further future decreases in shell thickness could have significant negative impacts on M. californianus survival and, in turn, negatively impact the species-rich complex that occupies mussel beds..

Electrical transport and electromigration studies on nickel encapsulated carbon nanotubes: possible future interconnects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kulshrestha, Neha; Misra, D S; Misra, Abhishek

2013-01-01

We nominate the nickel filled multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) as potential candidates to cope with challenges in persistent scaling for future interconnect technology. The insights into electrical transport through nickel filled carbon nanotubes provide an effective solution for major performance and reliability issues such as the increasing resistivity of metals at reduced scales, electromigration at high current densities and the problem of diffusion and corrosion faced by the existing copper interconnect technology. Furthermore, the nickel filled MWNTs outperform their hollow counterparts, the unfilled MWNTs, carrying at least one order higher current density, with increased time to failure. The results suggest that metal filled carbon nanotubes can provide a twofold benefit: (1) the metal filling provides an increased density of states for the system leading to a higher current density compared to hollow MWNTs, (2) metal out-diffusion and corrosion is prevented by the surrounding graphitic walls. (paper)

A comparison of baseline methodologies for 'Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation'

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kok Kasper

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A mechanism for emission reductions from deforestation and degradation (REDD is very likely to be included in a future climate agreement. The choice of REDD baseline methodologies will crucially influence the environmental and economic effectiveness of the climate regime. We compare three different historical baseline methods and one innovative dynamic model baseline approach to appraise their applicability under a future REDD policy framework using a weighted multi-criteria analysis. Results The results show that each baseline method has its specific strengths and weaknesses. Although the dynamic model allows for the best environmental and for comparatively good economic performance, its high demand for data and technical capacity limit the current applicability in many developing countries. Conclusion The adoption of a multi-tier approach will allow countries to select the baseline method best suiting their specific capabilities and data availability while simultaneously ensuring scientific transparency, environmental effectiveness and broad political support.

Neutrino physics with short baseline experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zimmerman, E.D.

2006-01-01

Neutrino physics with low- to medium-energy beams has progressed steadily over the last several years. Neutrino oscillation searches at short baseline (defined as 2 - -> 0.1eV 2 . One positive signal, from the LSND collaboration, exists and is being tested by the MiniBooNE experiment. Neutrino cross-section measurements are being made by MiniBooNE and K2K, which will be important for reducing systematic errors in present and future oscillation measurements. In the near future, dedicated cross- section experiments will begin operating at Fermilab. (author)

Future short baseline neutrino oscillation experiments

CERN Document Server

Camilleri, L L

1999-01-01

A neutrino mass that would make a significant contribution to the hidden mass of the universe and thus contribute to the solving of the dark matter puzzle is still the most valuable prize in neutrino physics. This would presumably be through a mixed dark matter scenario and would involve a neutrino mass of 1-2 eV. Assuming the Delta m/sup 2/ observed in neutrino oscillations is the difference between this mass and a negligible mass of a second neutrino, CHORUS and NOMAD would only have a sensitivity of sin/sup 2/ 2 theta ~10/sup -3/ in this domain. The aim of future nu /sub mu /- nu /sub tau / oscillation searches is therefore to improve the sensitivity of the search by about an order of magnitude. NOMAD has a number of events looking exactly like a nu /sub tau / interaction should but, in spite of the good kinematical capabilities of the experiment, the number of such events is consistent with the number of expected background events. Therefore to improve on this situation it is imperative to be able to dete...

Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century - exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vuuren, Detlef van; Zhou Fengqi; Vries, Bert de; Jiang Kejun; Graveland, Cor; Li Yun

2003-01-01

In this paper, we have used the simulation model IMAGE/TIMER to develop a set of energy and emission scenarios for China between 1995 and 2100, based on the global baseline scenarios published by IPCC. The purpose of the study was to explore possible baseline developments and available options to mitigate emissions. The two main baseline scenarios of the study differ, among others, in the openness of the Chinese economy and in economic growth, but both indicate a rapid growth in carbon emissions (2.0% and 2.6% per year in the 2000-2050 period). The baseline scenario analysis also shows that an orientation on environmental sustainability can not only reduce other environmental pressures but also lower carbon emissions. In the mitigation analysis, a large number of options has been evaluated in terms of impacts on investments, user costs, fuel imports costs and emissions. It is found that a large potential exists to mitigate carbon emissions in China, among others in the form of energy efficiency improvement (with large co-benefits) and measures in the electricity sector. Combining all options considered, it appears to be possible to reduce emissions compared to the baseline scenarios by 50%

Baseline atmospheric program Australia 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Francey, R.J.; Dick, A.L.; Derek, N.

1996-01-01

This publication reports activities, program summaries and data from the Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station in Tasmania, during the calendar year 1993. These activities represent Australia's main contribution to the Background Air Pollution Monitoring Network (BAPMoN), part of the World Meteorological Organization's Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW). The report includes 5 research reports covering trace gas sampling, ozone and radon interdependence, analysis of atmospheric dimethylsulfide and carbon-disulfide, sampling of trace gas composition of the troposphere, and sulfur aerosol/CCN relationship in marine air. Summaries of program reports for the calendar year 1993 are also included. Tabs., figs., refs

Current and future carbon budget at Takayama site, Japan, evaluated by a regional climate model and a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuribayashi, Masatoshi; Noh, Nam-Jin; Saitoh, Taku M; Ito, Akihiko; Wakazuki, Yasutaka; Muraoka, Hiroyuki

2017-06-01

Accurate projection of carbon budget in forest ecosystems under future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration is important to evaluate the function of terrestrial ecosystems, which serve as a major sink of atmospheric CO 2 . In this study, we examined the effects of spatial resolution of meteorological data on the accuracies of ecosystem model simulation for canopy phenology and carbon budget such as gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem production (NEP) of a deciduous forest in Japan. Then, we simulated the future (around 2085) changes in canopy phenology and carbon budget of the forest by incorporating high-resolution meteorological data downscaled by a regional climate model. The ecosystem model overestimated GPP and ER when we inputted low-resolution data, which have warming biases over mountainous landscape. But, it reproduced canopy phenology and carbon budget well, when we inputted high-resolution data. Under the future climate, earlier leaf expansion and delayed leaf fall by about 10 days compared with the present state was simulated, and also, GPP, ER and NEP were estimated to increase by 25.2%, 23.7% and 35.4%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that the increase of NEP in June and October would be mainly caused by rising temperature, whereas that in July and August would be largely attributable to CO 2 fertilization. This study suggests that the downscaling of future climate data enable us to project more reliable carbon budget of forest ecosystem in mountainous landscape than the low-resolution simulation due to the better predictions of leaf expansion and shedding.

An automated baseline correction protocol for infrared spectra of atmospheric aerosols collected on polytetrafluoroethylene (Teflon) filters

Science.gov (United States)

Kuzmiakova, Adele; Dillner, Ann M.; Takahama, Satoshi

2016-06-01

, and (3) thermal optical reflectance (TOR) organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) predictions. The discrepancy rate for a four-cluster solution is 10 %. For all functional groups but carboxylic COH the discrepancy is ≤ 10 %. Performance metrics obtained from TOR OC and EC predictions (R2 ≥ 0.94 %, bias ≤ 0.01 µg m-3, and error ≤ 0.04 µg m-3) are on a par with those obtained from uncorrected and PB-corrected spectra. The proposed protocol leads to visually and analytically similar estimates as those generated by the polynomial method. More importantly, the automated solution allows us and future users to evaluate its analytical reproducibility while minimizing reducible user bias. We anticipate the protocol will enable FT-IR researchers and data analysts to quickly and reliably analyze a large amount of data and connect them to a variety of available statistical learning methods to be applied to analyte absorbances isolated in atmospheric aerosol samples.

Trading forest carbon - OSU

Science.gov (United States)

Issues associate with trading carbon sequestered in forests are discussed. Scientific uncertainties associated with carbon measurement are discussed with respect to proposed accounting procedures. Major issues include: (1) Establishing baselines. (2) Determining additivity from f...

Carbon dioxide sequestration by direct mineral carbonation with carbonic acid

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Connor, William K.; Dahlin, David C.; Nilsen, David N.; Walters, Richard P.; Turner, Paul C.

2000-01-01

The Albany Research Center (ARC) of the U.S. Dept. of Energy (DOE) has been conducting a series of mineral carbonation tests at its Albany, Oregon, facility over the past 2 years as part of a Mineral Carbonation Study Program within the DOE. Other participants in this Program include the Los Alamos National Laboratory, Arizona State University, Science Applications International Corporation, and the DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory. The ARC tests have focused on ex-situ mineral carbonation in an aqueous system. The process developed at ARC utilizes a slurry of water mixed with a magnesium silicate mineral, olivine [forsterite end member (Mg2SiO4)], or serpentine [Mg3Si2O5(OH)4]. This slurry is reacted with supercritical carbon dioxide (CO2) to produce magnesite (MgCO3). The CO2 is dissolved in water to form carbonic acid (H2CO3), which dissociates to H+ and HCO3 -. The H+ reacts with the mineral, liberating Mg2+ cations which react with the bicarbonate to form the solid carbonate. The process is designed to simulate the natural serpentinization reaction of ultramafic minerals, and for this reason, these results may also be applicable to in-situ geological sequestration regimes. Results of the baseline tests, conducted on ground products of the natural minerals, have been encouraging. Tests conducted at ambient temperature (22 C) and subcritical CO2 pressures (below 73 atm) resulted in very slow conversion to the carbonate. However, when elevated temperatures and pressures are utilized, coupled with continuous stirring of the slurry and gas dispersion within the water column, significant reaction occurs within much shorter reaction times. Extent of reaction, as measured by the stoichiometric conversion of the silicate mineral (olivine) to the carbonate, is roughly 90% within 24 hours, using distilled water, and a reaction temperature of 185?C and a partial pressure of CO2 (PCO2) of 115 atm. Recent tests using a bicarbonate solution, under identical reaction

Carbon dioxide sequestration by direct mineral carbonation with carbonic acid

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Connor, W.K.; Dahlin, D.C.; Nilsen, D.N.; Walters, R.P.; Turner, P.C.

2000-07-01

The Albany Research Center (ARC) of the US Department of Energy (DOE) has been conducting a series of mineral carbonation tests at its Albany, Oregon, facility over the past 2 years as part of a Mineral Carbonation Study Program within the DOE. The ARC tests have focused on ex-situ mineral carbonation in an aqueous system. The process developed at ARC utilizes a slurry of water mixed with a magnesium silicate mineral, olivine [forsterite and member (mg{sub 2}SiO{sub 4})], or serpentine [Mg{sub 3}Si{sub 2}O{sub 5}(OH){sub 4}]. This slurry is reacted with supercritical carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) to produce magnesite (MgCO{sub 3}). The CO{sub 2} is dissolved in water to form carbonic acid (H{sub 2}CO{sub 3}), which dissociates to H{sup +} and HCO{sub 3}{sup {minus}}. The H{sup +} reacts with the mineral, liberating Mg{sup 2+} cations which react with the bicarbonate to form the solid carbonate. The process is designed to simulate the natural serpentinization reaction of ultramafic minerals, and for this reason, these results may also be applicable to in-situ geological sequestration regimes. Results of the baseline tests, conducted on ground products of the natural minerals, have been encouraging. Tests conducted at ambient temperature (22 C) and subcritical CO{sub 2} pressures (below 73 atm) resulted in very slow conversion to the carbonate. However, when elevated temperatures and pressures are utilized, coupled with continuous stirring of the slurry and gas dispersion within the water column, significant reaction occurs within much shorter reaction times. Extent of reaction, as measured by the stoichiometric conversion of the silicate mineral (olivine) to the carbonate, is roughly 90% within 24 hours, using distilled water, and a reaction temperature of 185 C and a partial pressure of CO{sub 2} (P{sub CO{sub 2}}) of 115 atm. Recent tests using a bicarbonate solution, under identical reaction conditions, have achieved roughly 83% conversion of heat treated serpentine

Historical and future perspectives of global soil carbon response to climate and land-use changes

Science.gov (United States)

Eglin, T.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S. L.; Barre, P.; Bellassen, V.; Cadule, P.; Chenu, C.; Gasser, T.; Koven, C.; Reichstein, M.; Smith, P.

2010-11-01

ABSTRACT In this paper, we attempt to analyse the respective influences of land-use and climate changes on the global and regional balances of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Two time periods are analysed: the historical period 1901-2000 and the period 2000-2100. The historical period is analysed using a synthesis of published data as well as new global and regional model simulations, and the future is analysed using models only. Historical land cover changes have resulted globally in SOC release into the atmosphere. This human induced SOC decrease was nearly balanced by the net SOC increase due to higher CO2 and rainfall. Mechanization of agriculture after the 1950s has accelerated SOC losses in croplands, whereas development of carbon-sequestering practices over the past decades may have limited SOC loss from arable soils. In some regions (Europe, China and USA), croplands are currently estimated to be either a small C sink or a small source, but not a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. In the future, according to terrestrial biosphere and climate models projections, both climate and land cover changes might cause a net SOC loss, particularly in tropical regions. The timing, magnitude, and regional distribution of future SOC changes are all highly uncertain. Reducing this uncertainty requires improving future anthropogenic CO2 emissions and land-use scenarios and better understanding of biogeochemical processes that control SOC turnover, for both managed and un-managed ecosystems.

Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Luderer, Gunnar

2017-12-01

Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh-1, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh-1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (˜100 gCO2eq kWh-1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

Options for including all lands in a future greenhouse gas accounting framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cowie, Annette L.; Kirschbaum, Miko U.F.; Ward, Murray

2007-01-01

for individual countries, and, if desired, in factoring out residual effects of natural variability on emissions/removals. Under the Average Carbon Stocks approach, debits/credits for changes in land use or management practices would be based on the changes in long-term average carbon stocks associated with changes in specific land use and management regimes. This approach thereby directly identifies the anthropogenic component, and assigns debits and credits accordingly. It may prove problematic, however, for countries to accept long-term averages rather than observable realised carbon-stock changes as the basis for accounting. Thus, none of the options is without its drawbacks, but Net Accounting with Negotiated Baselines and the Average Carbon Stocks approach could potentially be used as the basis of developing a future 'all lands' accounting framework

Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level.

Science.gov (United States)

Strauss, Benjamin H; Kulp, Scott; Levermann, Anders

2015-11-03

Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3-9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185-1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon.

Organic Contamination Baseline Study: In NASA JSC Astromaterials Curation Laboratories. Summary Report

Science.gov (United States)

Calaway, Michael J.

2013-01-01

In preparation for OSIRIS-REx and other future sample return missions concerned with analyzing organics, we conducted an Organic Contamination Baseline Study for JSC Curation Labsoratories in FY12. For FY12 testing, organic baseline study focused only on molecular organic contamination in JSC curation gloveboxes: presumably future collections (i.e. Lunar, Mars, asteroid missions) would use isolation containment systems over only cleanrooms for primary sample storage. This decision was made due to limit historical data on curation gloveboxes, limited IR&D funds and Genesis routinely monitors organics in their ISO class 4 cleanrooms.

Simulating future wheat yield under climate change, carbon dioxide enrichment and technology improvement in Iran. Case study: Azarbaijan region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mansouri, H.; Raei, Y.; Zaeim, A.N.

2015-07-01

Climate change and technology development can affect crop productivity in future conditions. Precise estimation of crops yield change as affected by climate and technology in the future is an effective approach for management strategies. The aim of this study was to estimate the impacts of climate change, technology improvement, CO2 enrichment, and overall impacts on wheat yield under future conditions. Wheat yield was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) compared to baseline year (2011) under two scenarios of IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) including SRES-A2 as regional economic scenario and SRES-B1 as global environmental scenario in Azarbaijan region (NW of Iran). A linear regression model, describing the relationship between wheat yield and historical year, was developed to investigate technology development effect. The decision support system for agro-technology transfer (DSSAT4.5) was used to evaluate the influence of climate change on wheat yield. The most positive effects were found for wheat yield as affected by technology in all studied regions. Under future climate change, the SRES projected a decrease in yield, especially in West Azarbaijan region. When the effects of elevated CO2 were considered, all regions resulted to increase in wheat yield. Considering all components effect in comparison with baseline (2011), yield increase would range from 5% to 38% across all times, scenarios and regions. According to our findings, it seems that we may expect a higher yield of wheat in NW Iran in the future if technology development continues as well as past years. (Author)

Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

2016-07-01

Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley

Mercury baseline levels in Flemish soils (Belgium)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tack, Filip M.G.; Vanhaesebroeck, Thomas; Verloo, Marc G.; Van Rompaey, Kurt; Ranst, Eric van

2005-01-01

It is important to establish contaminant levels that are normally present in soils to provide baseline data for pollution studies. Mercury is a toxic element of concern. This study was aimed at assessing baseline mercury levels in soils in Flanders. In a previous study, mercury contents in soils in Oost-Vlaanderen were found to be significantly above levels reported elsewhere. For the current study, observations were extended over two more provinces, West-Vlaanderen and Antwerpen. Ranges of soil Hg contents were distinctly higher in the province Oost-Vlaanderen (interquartile range from 0.09 to 0.43 mg/kg) than in the other provinces (interquartile ranges from 0.7 to 0.13 and 0.7 to 0.15 mg/kg for West-Vlaanderen and Antwerpen, respectively). The standard threshold method was applied to separate soils containing baseline levels of Hg from the data. Baseline concentrations for Hg were characterised by a median of 0.10 mg Hg/kg dry soil, an interquartile range from 0.07 to 0.14 mg/kg and a 90% percentile value of 0.30 mg/kg. The influence of soil properties such as clay and organic carbon contents, and pH on baseline Hg concentrations was not important. Maps of the spatial distribution of Hg levels showed that the province Oost-Vlaanderen exhibited zones with systematically higher Hg soil contents. This may be related to the former presence of many small-scale industries employing mercury in that region. - Increased mercury levels may reflect human activity

Balancing Fiscal, Energy, and Environmental Concerns: Analyzing the Policy Options for California’s Energy and Economic Future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edward Manderson

2013-03-01

Full Text Available This study estimates the fiscal, energy, and environmental tradeoffs involved in supplying California’s future energy needs. An integrated framework is developed whereby an econometric forecasting system of California energy demand is coupled with engineering-economic models of energy supply, and economic impacts are estimated using input-output models of the California economy. A baseline scenario in which California relies on imported electricity to meet future demand is then compared against various energy supply development scenarios over the forecast horizon (2012–2035. The results indicate that if California implements its renewable portfolio standard (RPS, there will be a substantial net cost in terms of value added, employment, and state tax revenues because the economic benefits of building capacity are outweighed by higher energy prices. Although carbon emissions fall, the cost per ton of avoided emissions is well above market prices. Building out natural gas fired generation capacity also leads to losses compared to the baseline, although the impacts are relatively minor. Meanwhile, a strategy of replacing imported crude oil and natural gas with domestic production using indigenous resources increases gross state product, employment, and tax revenues, with minimal impact on carbon emissions. This option could, therefore, help mitigate the costs of California meeting its RPS commitment.

Measurement of carbon capture efficiency and stored carbon leakage

Science.gov (United States)

Keeling, Ralph F.; Dubey, Manvendra K.

2013-01-29

Data representative of a measured carbon dioxide (CO.sub.2) concentration and of a measured oxygen (O.sub.2) concentration at a measurement location can be used to determine whether the measured carbon dioxide concentration at the measurement location is elevated relative to a baseline carbon dioxide concentration due to escape of carbon dioxide from a source associated with a carbon capture and storage process. Optionally, the data can be used to quantify a carbon dioxide concentration increase at the first location that is attributable to escape of carbon dioxide from the source and to calculate a rate of escape of carbon dioxide from the source by executing a model of gas-phase transport using at least the first carbon dioxide concentration increase. Related systems, methods, and articles of manufacture are also described.

Making C4 crops more water efficient under current and future climate: Tradeoffs between carbon gain and water loss

Science.gov (United States)

Srinivasan, V.; Pignon, C.

2017-12-01

C4 plants have a carbon concentrating mechanism that has evolved under historically low CO2 concentrations of around 200 ppm. However, increases in global CO2 concentrations in recent times (current CO2 concentrations are at 400 ppm and it is projected to be 550 ppm by mid-century) have diminished the relative advantage of C4 plants over C3 plants, which lack the expensive carbon concentrating machinery. Here we show by employing model simulations that under pre-historic CO2 concentrations, C4 plants are near optimal in their stomatal behavior and nitrogen partitioning between carbon concentrating machinery and carboxylation machinery, and they are significantly supra-optimal under current and future elevated CO2 concentrations. Model simulations performed at current CO2 concentrations of 400 ppm show that, under high light conditions, decreasing stomatal conductance by 20% results in a 15% increase in water use efficiency with negligible loss in photosynthesis. Under future elevated CO2 concentrations of 550 ppm, a 40% decrease in stomatal conductance produces a 35% increase in water use efficiency. Furthermore, stomatal closure is shown to be more effective in decreasing whole canopy transpiration compared to canopy top leaf transpiration, since shaded leaves are more supra-optimal than sunlit leaves. Model simulations for optimizing nitrogen distribution in C4 leaves show that under high light conditions, C4 plants over invest in carbon concentrating machinery and under invest in carboxylation machinery. A 20% redistribution in leaf nitrogen results in a 10% increase in leaf carbon assimilation without significant increases in transpiration under current CO2 concentrations of 400 ppm. Similarly, a 40% redistribution in leaf nitrogen results in a 15% increase in leaf carbon assimilation without significant increases in transpiration under future elevated CO2 concentrations of 550 ppm. Our model optimality simulations show that C4 leaves a supra optimal in their

Carbon The Future Material for Advanced Technology Applications

CERN Document Server

Messina, Giacomo

2006-01-01

Carbon-based materials and their applications constitute a burgeoning topic of scientific research among scientists and engineers attracted from diverse areas such as applied physics, materials science, biology, mechanics, electronics and engineering. Further development of current materials, advances in their applications, and discovery of new forms of carbon are the themes addressed by the frontier research in these fields. This book covers all the fundamental topics concerned with amorphous and crystalline C-based materials, such as diamond, diamond-like carbon, carbon alloys, carbon nanotubes. The goal is, by coherently progressing from growth - and characterisation techniques to technological applications for each class of material, to fashion the first comprehensive state-of-the-art review of this fast evolving field of research in carbon materials.

Carbon stable isotope composition of charophyte organic matter in a small and shallow Spanish water body as a baseline for future trophic studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Antonia Rodrigo

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Quantitative descriptions of foodweb structure based on isotope niche space require knowledge of producers’ isotopic signatures. In freshwater ecosystems charophytes are one of the main components of submerged vegetation and the feeding base for many herbivorous consumers, but knowledge about their organic carbon isotopic signatures is sparse. In this study, the δ13C organic values (and organic %C and %N of the four species of submerged macrophytes (three charophytes - Chara hispida, Nitella hyalina and Tolypella glomerata - and one angiosperm, Myriophyllum spicatum growing in a newly created shallow pond were measured monthly over a period of one year, to discern if i all charophyte species susceptible to being food for consumers and growing in the same waterbody have the same C isotopic composition; ii the δ13C values of a charophyte species change on a seasonal and spatial scale; iii the different parts (apical nodes, internodes, rhizoids, reproductive organs, oospores of a charophyte species have the same isotopic composition. The δ13C, %C and %N values of organic matter in the sediments where the plants were rooted were also measured as well as several limnological variables. The δ13C values for the angiosperm (-13.7±0.7‰ indicated 13C-enrichment, whereas the N. hyalina δ13C values were the most negative (-22.4±0.7‰. The mean δ13C value for C. hispida was -19.0±1.0‰ and -20.7±0.8‰ for T. glomerata. C. hispida δ13C values had a significant seasonal variation with 13C-poor values in the cold season, and slight spatial differences. Statistically significant differences were found between charophyte rhizoids (13C-enriched and the other parts of the thalli. The δ13C values in the sediments varied throughout time (-13‰ to -26‰. The C content was lower in the charophytes than in the angiosperm and there were no large differences among the charophytes. Charophyte fructifications were enriched in organic C compared to the

Past performance and future needs for low carbon climate resilient infrastructure– An investment perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kennedy, Christopher; Corfee-Morlot, Jan

2013-01-01

This article explores the investment implications of moving to low-carbon, climate-resilient infrastructure. It begins with analysis of gross fixed capital formation and decarbonisation trends to examine past performance of OECD countries in reducing GHG emissions from 1997 to 2007. Many OECD countries made progress in decoupling GHG emissions from infrastructure investment in residential buildings, and to a lesser extent from power and industry, but increased efforts are required, especially in the transportation sector. The analysis highlights the need to accelerate the pace and scale of change to reverse GHG emission trends to bring into reach ambitious climate policy goals. It then assesses future global infrastructure needs under low-carbon and business-as-usual (BAU) global warming scenarios, and the incremental costs of going “low-carbon” are estimated to be small relative to the magnitude of the BAU infrastructure investment needs. Global infrastructure needs for 2015–2020, including buildings and transportation vehicles, are approximately 6.7 trillion USD/year under BAU. Incremental costs of low-carbon infrastructure are of the order −70 to +450 billion USD/year. Achieving climate resilient infrastructure may add costs, but there is potentially synergistic overlap with low-carbon attributes. Although estimates are incomplete, the technical and financial inter-dependency between infrastructure systems suggests the potential to generate infrastructure investment to support a “virtuous cycle” of low-carbon growth. - Highlights: • Conceptualisation of interactions between low carbon and climate resilient infrastructure (Fig. 1). • New performance measures of national GHG emissions vs. capital formation (Section 2). • Comparion of global infrastructure costs under low and high carbon scenarios (Table 1). • Understanding of infrastructures that support virtuous cycles of low carbon growth (Fig. 8)

Environmental impacts of future low-carbon electricity systems: Detailed life cycle assessment of a Danish case study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Turconi, Roberto; Tonini, Davide; Nielsen, Christian F.B.

2014-01-01

by the modeling approach regarding the import of electricity, biomass provision, and the allocation between heat and power in cogeneration plants. As the importance of all three aspects is likely to increase in the future, transparency in LCA modeling is critical. Characterized impacts for Danish power plants......The need to reduce dependency on fossil resources and to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is driving many countries towards the implementation of low-carbon electricity systems. In this study the environmental impact of a future (2030) possible low-carbon electricity system in Denmark...... was assessed and compared with the current situation (2010) and an alternative 2030 scenario using life cycle assessment (LCA). The influence on the final results of the modeling approach used for (i) electricity import, (ii) biomass resources, and (iii) the cogeneration of heat and power was discussed...

Mapping carbon flux uncertainty and selecting optimal locations for future flux towers in the Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Yingxin; Howard, Daniel M.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Zhang, Li

2012-01-01

Flux tower networks (e. g., AmeriFlux, Agriflux) provide continuous observations of ecosystem exchanges of carbon (e. g., net ecosystem exchange), water vapor (e. g., evapotranspiration), and energy between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. The long-term time series of flux tower data are essential for studying and understanding terrestrial carbon cycles, ecosystem services, and climate changes. Currently, there are 13 flux towers located within the Great Plains (GP). The towers are sparsely distributed and do not adequately represent the varieties of vegetation cover types, climate conditions, and geophysical and biophysical conditions in the GP. This study assessed how well the available flux towers represent the environmental conditions or "ecological envelopes" across the GP and identified optimal locations for future flux towers in the GP. Regression-based remote sensing and weather-driven net ecosystem production (NEP) models derived from different extrapolation ranges (10 and 50%) were used to identify areas where ecological conditions were poorly represented by the flux tower sites and years previously used for mapping grassland fluxes. The optimal lands suitable for future flux towers within the GP were mapped. Results from this study provide information to optimize the usefulness of future flux towers in the GP and serve as a proxy for the uncertainty of the NEP map.

Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strachan, Neil

2011-01-01

Baselines are generally accepted as a key input assumption in long-term energy modelling, but energy models have traditionally been poor on identifying baselines assumptions. Notably, transparency on the current policy content of model baselines is now especially critical as long-term climate mitigation policies have been underway for a number of years. This paper argues that the range of existing energy and emissions policies are an integral part of any long-term baseline, and hence already represent a 'with-policy' baseline, termed here a Business-as-Unusual (BAuU). Crucially, existing energy policies are not a sunk effort; as impacts of existing policy initiatives are targeted at future years, they may be revised through iterative policy making, and their quantitative effectiveness requires ex-post verification. To assess the long-term role of existing policies in energy modelling, currently identified UK policies are explicitly stripped out of the UK MARKAL Elastic Demand (MED) optimisation energy system model, to generate a BAuU (with-policy) and a REF (without policy) baseline. In terms of long-term mitigation costs, policy-baseline assumptions are comparable to another key exogenous modelling assumption - that of global fossil fuel prices. Therefore, best practice in energy modelling would be to have both a no-policy reference baseline, and a current policy reference baseline (BAuU). At a minimum, energy modelling studies should have a transparent assessment of the current policy contained within the baseline. Clearly identifying and comparing policy-baseline assumptions are required for cost effective and objective policy making, otherwise energy models will underestimate the true cost of long-term emissions reductions.

Biotransformation of carbon dioxide in bioelectrochemical systems: State of the art and future prospects

Science.gov (United States)

Bajracharya, Suman; Srikanth, Sandipam; Mohanakrishna, Gunda; Zacharia, Renju; Strik, David PBTB; Pant, Deepak

2017-07-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) utilization/recycling for the production of chemicals and gaseous/liquid energy-carriers is a way to moderate the rising CO2 in the atmosphere. One of the possible solutions for the CO2 sequestration is the electrochemical reduction of this stable molecule to useful fuel/products. Nevertheless, the surface chemistry of CO2 reduction is a challenge due to the presence of large energy barriers, requiring noticeable catalysis. The recent approach of microbial electrocatalysis of CO2 reduction has promising prospects to reduce the carbon level sustainably, taking full advantage of CO2-derived chemical commodities. We review the currently investigated bioelectrochemical approaches that could possibly be implemented to enable the handling of CO2 emissions. This review covers the most recent advances in the bioelectrochemical approaches of CO2 transformations in terms of biocatalysts development and process design. Furthermore, the extensive research on carbon fixation and conversion to different value added chemicals is reviewed. The review concludes by detailing the key challenges and future prospects that could enable economically feasible microbial electrosynthesis technology.

Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

Science.gov (United States)

Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

2014-08-01

Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined

40 CFR 74.20 - Data for baseline and alternative baseline.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Data for baseline and alternative baseline. 74.20 Section 74.20 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR... baseline and alternative baseline. (a) Acceptable data. (1) The designated representative of a combustion...

Powernext Day-Ahead. Powernext Futures. Powernext Carbon. Powernext Weather. Activity assessment first-half 2006; Powernext Day-Ahead. Powernext Futures. Powernext Carbon. Powernext Weather. Bilan d'activite premier semestre 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO{sub 2} exchange markets. This activity report presents the highlights of the market and of Powernext in the first half of 2006: market conditions, prices and traded volumes on Powernext (Powernext Day-Ahead{sup TM} in the case of day-ahead contracts, Powernext Futures{sup TM} in the case of medium-term contracts, and Powernext Carbon in the case of CO{sub 2}), new active members, and liquidity on the power market. (J.S.)

Design Study for a Future Laguna-LBNO Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility at CERN

CERN Document Server

Alabau-Gonzalvo, J; Antoniou, F; Benedikt, M; Calviani, M; Efthymiopoulos, I; Ferrari, A; Garoby, R; Gerigk, F; Gilardoni, S; Goddard, B; Kosmicki, A; Lazaridis, C; Osborne, J; Papaphillippou, Y; Parfenova, A; Shaposhnikova, E; Steerenberg, R; Velten, P; Vincke, H

2013-01-01

The Large Apparatus studying Grand Unification and Neutrino Astrophysics (LAGUNA) study [1] investigated seven pre-selected underground sites in Europe (Finland, France, Italy, Poland, Romania, Spain and UK), capable of housing large volume detectors for terrestrial, accelerator generated and astrophysical neutrino research. The study was focused on geo-technical assessment of the sites, concluding that no show-stoppers exist for the construction of the required large underground caverns in the chosen sites. The LAGUNA-LBNO FP7/EC-funded design study extends the LAGUNA study in two key aspects: the detailed engineering of detector construction and operation, and the study of a long-baseline neutrino beam from CERN, and possibly other accelerator centres in Europe. Based on the findings of the LAGUNA study, the Pyh¨asalmi mine in Finland is chosen as prime site for the far detector location. The mine offers the deepest underground location in Europe (-1400 m) and a baseline of 2’300 km from CERN (Fig. 1). ...

Powernext Day-Ahead. Powernext Futures. Powernext Carbon. Powernext Weather. 2006 activity assessment; Powernext Day-Ahead. Powernext Futures. Powernext Carbon. Powernext Weather. Bilan d'activite 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO{sub 2} exchange markets. This activity report presents the highlights of the market and of Powernext in 2006: market conditions (prices on the electricity market, prices on the CO{sub 2} emission allowances market, weather conditions, institutional aspects of the CO{sub 2} market, power generation and consumption, situation at the borders, fuel prices), traded volumes on Powernext (Powernext Day-Ahead{sup TM} in the case of day-ahead contracts, Powernext Futures{sup TM} in the case of medium-term contracts, and Powernext Carbon in the case of CO{sub 2}), new active members, and Powernext liquidity on the power market. (J.S.)

Exploring carbon futures in the EU power sector : Using Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis to explore policy regimes under deep uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Loonen, E.; Pruyt, E.; Hamarat, C.

2013-01-01

The European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in combination with other renewable electricity (RES-E) support schemes such as (premium) feed-in tariffs or tradable green certificates do not guarantee a carbon neutral power sector in 2050. This paper shows that many plausible futures of high carbon

Quantifying and predicting historical and future patterns of carbon fluxes from the North American Continent to Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, H.; Zhang, B.; Xu, R.; Yang, J.; Yao, Y.; Pan, S.; Lohrenz, S. E.; Cai, W. J.; He, R.; Najjar, R. G.; Friedrichs, M. A. M.; Hofmann, E. E.

2017-12-01

Carbon export through river channels to coastal waters is a fundamental component of the global carbon cycle. Changes in the terrestrial environment, both natural (e.g., climatic change, enriched CO2 concentration, and elevated ozone concentration) and anthropogenic (e.g, deforestation, cropland expansion, and urbanization) have greatly altered carbon production, stocks, decomposition, movement and export from land to river and ocean systems. However, the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of lateral carbon fluxes from land to oceans and the underlying mechanisms responsible for these fluxes remain far from certain. Here we applied a process-based land model with explicit representation of carbon processes in stream and rivers (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model: DLEM 2.0) to examine how changes in climate, land use, atmospheric CO2, and nitrogen deposition have affected the carbon fluxes from North American continent to Ocean during 1980-2015. Our simulated results indicated that terrestrial carbon export shows substantially spatial and temporal variability. Of the five sub-regions (Arctic coast, Pacific coast, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic coast, and Great lakes), the Arctic sub-region provides the highest DOC flux, whereas the Gulf of Mexico sub-region provided the highest DIC flux. However, terrestrial carbon export to the arctic oceans showed increasing trends for both DOC and DIC, whereas DOC and DIC export to the Gulf of Mexico decreased in the recent decades. Future pattern of riverine carbon fluxes would be largely dependent on the climate change and land use scenarios.

Carbon source in the future chemical industries

Science.gov (United States)

Hofmann, Peter; Heinrich Krauch, Carl

1982-11-01

Rising crude oil prices favour the exploitation of hitherto unutilised energy carriers and the realisation of new technologies in all sectors where carbon is used. These changed economic constraints necessitate both savings in conventional petrochemistry and a change to oil-independent carbon sources in the chemical industry. While, in coal chemistry, the synthesis and process principles of petrochemistry — fragmentation of the raw material and subsequent buildup of molecular structures — can be maintained, the raw material structure largely remains unchanged in the chemistry of renewable raw materials. This lecture is to demonstrate the structural as well as the technological and energy criteria of the chemistry of alternative carbon sources, to forecast the chances of commercial realization and to discuss some promising fields of research and development.

Co-Generation and Renewables: Solutions for a Low-Carbon Energy Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

Co-generation and renewables: solutions for a low-carbon energy future shows that powerful synergies exist when co-generation and renewables work together. The report documents, for the first time, some of the little-known complementary aspects of the two technologies. It also re-emphasises the stand-alone benefits of each technology. Thus, decision makers can use the report as a 'one-stop shop' when they need credible information on co-generation, renewables and the possible synergies between the two. It also provides answers to policy makers' questions about the potential energy and environmental benefits of an increased policy commitment to both co-generation and renewables. Secure, reliable, affordable and clean energy supplies are fundamental to economic and social stability and development. Energy and environmental decision-makers are faced with major challenges that require action now in order to ensure a more sustainable future. More efficient use of, and cleaner primary energy sources can help to achieve this goal. Co-generation -- also known as combined heat and power (CHP) -- represents a proven, cost-effective and energy-efficient solution for delivering electricity and heat. Renewable sources provide clean and secure fuels for producing electricity and heat.

Ten questions concerning future buildings beyond zero energy and carbon neutrality

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Na; Phelan, Patrick E.; Gonzalez, Jorge; Harris, Chioke; Henze, Gregor P.; Hutchinson, Robert; Langevin, Jared; Lazarus, Mary Ann; Nelson, Brent; Pyke, Chris; Roth, Kurt; Rouse, David; Sawyer, Karma; Selkowitz, Stephen

2017-07-01

Architects, planners, and building scientists have been at the forefront of envisioning a future built environment for centuries. However, fragmental views that emphasize one facet of the built environment, such as energy, environment, or groundbreaking technologies, often do not achieve expected outcomes. Buildings are responsible for approximately one-third of worldwide carbon emissions and account for over 40% of primary energy consumption in the U.S. In addition to achieving the ambitious goal of reducing building greenhouse gas emissions by 75% by 2050, buildings must improve their functionality and performance to meet current and future human, societal, and environmental needs in a changing world. In this article, we introduce a new framework to guide potential evolution of the building stock in the next century, based on greenhouse gas emissions as the common thread to investigate the potential implications of new design paradigms, innovative operational strategies, and disruptive technologies. This framework emphasizes integration of multidisciplinary knowledge, scalability for mainstream buildings, and proactive approaches considering constraints and unknowns. The framework integrates the interrelated aspects of the built environment through a series of quantitative metrics that aim to improve environmental outcomes while optimizing building performance to achieve healthy, adaptive, and productive buildings.

From carbonization to decarbonization?-Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steckel, Jan Christoph; Jakob, Michael; Marschinski, Robert; Luderer, Gunnar

2011-01-01

Along the lines of the Kaya identity, we perform a decomposition analysis of historical and projected emissions data for China. We compare the results with reduction requirements implied by globally cost-effective mitigation scenarios and official Chinese policy targets. For the years 1971-2000 we find that the impact of high economic growth on emissions was partially compensated by a steady fall in energy intensity. However, the end - and even reversal - of this downward trend, along with a rising carbon intensity of energy, resulted in rapid emission growth during 2000-2007. By applying an innovative enhanced Kaya-decomposition method, we also show how the persistent increase in the use of coal has caused carbon intensity to rise throughout the entire time-horizon of the analysis. These insights are then compared to model scenarios for future energy system developments generated by the ReMIND-R model. The analysis reaffirms China's indispensable role in global efforts to implement any of three exemplary stabilization targets (400, 450, or 500 ppm CO 2 -only), and underscore the increasing importance of carbon intensity for the more ambitious targets. Finally, we compare China's official targets for energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP to projections for global cost-effective stabilization scenarios, finding them to be roughly compatible in the short-to-mid-term. - Highlights: → An extended Kaya-decomposition is applied to historical data and ReMIND-R scenario results for China. → Reversing a historic trend, energy intensity has increased in recent years. → The contribution of coal in increasing carbon intensity and emissions has been constant in the past. → Decarbonization becomes increasingly important with increasingly ambitious climate targets. → Chinese targets for carbon intensity of GDP are in line with a 450 ppm CO 2 -only stabilization scenario.

Annual Technology Baseline (Including Supporting Data); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blair, Nate; Cory, Karlynn; Hand, Maureen; Parkhill, Linda; Speer, Bethany; Stehly, Tyler; Feldman, David; Lantz, Eric; Augusting, Chad; Turchi, Craig; O' Connor, Patrick

2015-07-08

Consistent cost and performance data for various electricity generation technologies can be difficult to find and may change frequently for certain technologies. With the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB), National Renewable Energy Laboratory provides an organized and centralized dataset that was reviewed by internal and external experts. It uses the best information from the Department of Energy laboratory's renewable energy analysts and Energy Information Administration information for conventional technologies. The ATB will be updated annually in order to provide an up-to-date repository of current and future cost and performance data. Going forward, we plan to revise and refine the values using best available information. The ATB includes both a presentation with notes (PDF) and an associated Excel Workbook. The ATB includes the following electricity generation technologies: land-based wind; offshore wind; utility-scale solar PV; concentrating solar power; geothermal power; hydropower plants (upgrades to existing facilities, powering non-powered dams, and new stream-reach development); conventional coal; coal with carbon capture and sequestration; integrated gasification combined cycle coal; natural gas combustion turbines; natural gas combined cycle; conventional biopower. Nuclear laboratory's renewable energy analysts and Energy Information Administration information for conventional technologies. The ATB will be updated annually in order to provide an up-to-date repository of current and future cost and performance data. Going forward, we plan to revise and refine the values using best available information.

Adapting fire management to future fire regimes: impacts on boreal forest composition and carbon balance in Canadian National Parks

Science.gov (United States)

de Groot, W. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Cantin, A.

2009-04-01

The effects of future fire regimes altered by climate change, and fire management in adaptation to climate change were studied in the boreal forest region of western Canada. Present (1975-90) and future (2080-2100) fire regimes were simulated for several National Parks using data from the Canadian (CGCM1) and Hadley (HadCM3) Global Climate Models (GCM) in separate simulation scenarios. The long-term effects of the different fire regimes on forests were simulated using a stand-level, boreal fire effects model (BORFIRE). Changes in forest composition and biomass storage due to future altered fire regimes were determined by comparing current and future simulation results. This was used to assess the ecological impact of altered fire regimes on boreal forests, and the future role of these forests as carbon sinks or sources. Additional future simulations were run using adapted fire management strategies, including increased fire suppression and the use of prescribed fire to meet fire cycle objectives. Future forest composition, carbon storage and emissions under current and adapted fire management strategies were also compared to determine the impact of various future fire management options. Both of the GCM's showed more severe burning conditions under future fire regimes. This includes fires with higher intensity, greater depth of burn, greater total fuel consumption and shorter fire cycles (or higher rates of annual area burned). The Canadian GCM indicated burning conditions more severe than the Hadley GCM. Shorter fire cycles of future fire regimes generally favoured aspen, birch, and jack pine because it provided more frequent regeneration opportunity for these pioneer species. Black spruce was only minimally influenced by future fire regimes, although white spruce declined sharply. Maintaining representation of pure and mixed white spruce ecosystems in natural areas will be a concern under future fire regimes. Active fire suppression is required in these areas. In

The role of Carbon Capture and Storage in a future sustainable energy system

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

2012-01-01

systems, the number of utilisation hours of power and CHP plants will have to decrease substantially due to the energy efficiency measures in combination with the inclusion of renewable energy power inputs from wind and similar resources. Consequently, no power or CHP plants exist in future sustainable......This paper presents the results of adding a CCS(Carbon Capture and Storage) plant including an underground CO2 storage to a well described and well documented vision of converting the present Danish fossil based energy system into a future sustainable energy system made by the Danish Society...... huge construction costs with the expectation of long lifetimes. Consequently, the CCS has to operate as part of large-scale power or CHP plants with high utilisation hours for the CCS investment to come even close to being feasible. However, seen in the light of transforming to sustainable energy...

The role of decentralized generation and storage technologies in future energy systems planning for a rural agglomeration in Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yazdanie, Mashael; Densing, Martin; Wokaun, Alexander

2016-01-01

This study presents a framework to quantitatively evaluate decentralized generation and storage technology (DGST) performance and policy impacts in a rural setting. The role of DGSTs in the future energy systems planning of a rural agglomeration in Switzerland is examined using a cost optimization modeling approach. Heat and electricity demand for major sectors are considered. Scenarios introduce DGSTs in a stepwise manner to measure incremental impacts on future capacity planning compared to a baseline scenario. Sub-scenarios also examine the impacts of carbon mitigation policies, and a sensitivity analysis is carried out for key energy carriers and conversion technologies. DGSTs enable a significant reduction in electricity grid usage for the community considered. Small hydro with a storage reservoir and photovoltaics enable the community to become largely self-sufficient with over 80% reductions in grid imports by 2050 compared to the baseline scenario. Storage enables maximum usage of the available hydro potential which also leads to network upgrade deferrals and a significant increase in photovoltaic installations. Investment decisions in small hydro are robust against cost variations, while heating technology investment decisions are sensitive to oil and grid electricity prices. Carbon pricing policies are found to be effective in mitigating local fossil fuel emissions. - Highlights: •Rural case study on decentralized generation and storage technology (DGST) benefits. •Cost optimization model and scenarios developed to assess DGSTs until 2050. •Small hydro and photovoltaics (PV) increase self-sufficiency of community. •Storage enables full hydro potential usage and increased PV penetration. •Carbon price policies effective in mitigating local fossil fuel emissions.

Future active layer dynamics and carbon dioxide production from thawing permafrost layers in Northeast Greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hollesen, Jørgen; Elberling, Bo; Jansson, P.E.

2011-01-01

Thawing permafrost and the resulting mineralization of previously frozen organic carbon (C) is considered an important future feedback from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. Here, we use a dynamic process oriented permafrost model, the CoupModel, to link surface and subsurface temperatures....... The model is successfully adjusted and applied for the study area and shown to be able to simulate active layer dynamics. Subsequently, the model is used to predict the active layer thickness under future warming scenarios. The model predicts an increase of maximum active layer thickness from today 70 to 80......–105 cm as a result of a 2–6 °C warming. An additional increase in the maximum active layer thickness of a few centimetres may be expected due to heat production from decomposition of organic matter. Simulated future soil temperatures and water contents are subsequently used with measured basal soil...

CARBON ACCOUNTING INITIATIVES: CASE STUDY OF A PETROLEUM REFINERY IN MALAYSIA TO PREPARE FOR FUTURE CARBON MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

AMANDA H.L. CHEE

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Petroleum refining process produces a large amount of atmospheric pollutants including greenhouse gases which are attributed to global warming. The international community inevitably addressed the global warming issue by introducing a market-based mechanism known as Emission Trading Systems (ETS under the Kyoto Protocol which imposes binding limits to developed nations using three flexibility mechanisms, including the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM. This case study was carried out in a petroleum refinery in Malaysia to explore the possibility for the refinery to participate in CDM. Information was collected through observatory field survey at the refinery and documentation review. Results show that the current monitoring tool using indirect calculation of fuel consumption provides a comprehensive coverage of emission sources but the reporting frequency should be increased for data accuracy. An accounting system was then created to predict the emissions gap of the refinery with reference to the baseline-year set by the Kyoto Protocol. It was concluded that the refinery showed promising potential to participate in CDM to benefit from technology transfer by selling their ‘credits’ to Annex I countries despite the uncertainty on the impact of the carbon market in a Non-Annex I country.

Responses of calcification of massive and encrusting corals to past, present, and near-future ocean carbon dioxide concentrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iguchi, Akira; Kumagai, Naoki H.; Nakamura, Takashi; Suzuki, Atsushi; Sakai, Kazuhiko; Nojiri, Yukihiro

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Growth rates of two corals in the acidified seawater were evaluated. • Highest growth rates were observed in pre-industrial pCO 2 level. • The growth rates also decreased in the near-future ocean acidification level. • The growth responses were affected by variations of parameters of carbon chemistry. • Bayesian modeling approach was effective for the inference of the best model. - Abstract: In this study, we report the acidification impact mimicking the pre-industrial, the present, and near-future oceans on calcification of two coral species (Porites australiensis, Isopora palifera) by using precise pCO 2 control system which can produce acidified seawater under stable pCO 2 values with low variations. In the analyses, we performed Bayesian modeling approaches incorporating the variations of pCO 2 and compared the results between our modeling approach and classical statistical one. The results showed highest calcification rates in pre-industrial pCO 2 level and gradual decreases of calcification in the near-future ocean acidification level, which suggests that ongoing and near-future ocean acidification would negatively impact coral calcification. In addition, it was expected that the variations of parameters of carbon chemistry may affect the inference of the best model on calcification responses to these parameters between Bayesian modeling approach and classical statistical one even under stable pCO 2 values with low variations

A long baseline global stereo matching based upon short baseline estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jing; Zhao, Hong; Li, Zigang; Gu, Feifei; Zhao, Zixin; Ma, Yueyang; Fang, Meiqi

2018-05-01

In global stereo vision, balancing the matching efficiency and computing accuracy seems to be impossible because they contradict each other. In the case of a long baseline, this contradiction becomes more prominent. In order to solve this difficult problem, this paper proposes a novel idea to improve both the efficiency and accuracy in global stereo matching for a long baseline. In this way, the reference images located between the long baseline image pairs are firstly chosen to form the new image pairs with short baselines. The relationship between the disparities of pixels in the image pairs with different baselines is revealed by considering the quantized error so that the disparity search range under the long baseline can be reduced by guidance of the short baseline to gain matching efficiency. Then, the novel idea is integrated into the graph cuts (GCs) to form a multi-step GC algorithm based on the short baseline estimation, by which the disparity map under the long baseline can be calculated iteratively on the basis of the previous matching. Furthermore, the image information from the pixels that are non-occluded under the short baseline but are occluded for the long baseline can be employed to improve the matching accuracy. Although the time complexity of the proposed method depends on the locations of the chosen reference images, it is usually much lower for a long baseline stereo matching than when using the traditional GC algorithm. Finally, the validity of the proposed method is examined by experiments based on benchmark datasets. The results show that the proposed method is superior to the traditional GC method in terms of efficiency and accuracy, and thus it is suitable for long baseline stereo matching.

Future export of particulate and dissolved organic carbon from land to coastal zones of the Baltic Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Strååt, Kim Dahlgren; Mörth, Carl-Magnus; Undeman, Emma

2018-01-01

The Baltic Sea is a semi-enclosed brackish sea in Northern Europe with a drainage basin four times larger than the sea itself. Riverine organic carbon (Particulate Organic Carbon, POC and Dissolved Organic Carbon, DOC) dominates carbon input to the Baltic Sea and influences both land-to-sea transport of nutrients and contaminants, and hence the functioning of the coastal ecosystem. The potential impact of future climate change on loads of POC and DOC in the Baltic Sea drainage basin (BSDB) was assessed using a hydrological-biogeochemical model (CSIM). The changes in annual and seasonal concentrations and loads of both POC and DOC by the end of this century were predicted using three climate change scenarios and compared to the current state. In all scenarios, overall increasing DOC loads, but unchanged POC loads, were projected in the north. In the southern part of the BSDB, predicted DOC loads were not significantly changing over time, although POC loads decreased in all scenarios. The magnitude and significance of the trends varied with scenario but the sign (+ or -) of the projected trends for the entire simulation period never conflicted. Results were discussed in detail for the "middle" CO2 emission scenario (business as usual, a1b). On an annual and entire drainage basin scale, the total POC load was projected to decrease by ca 7% under this scenario, mainly due to reduced riverine primary production in the southern parts of the BSDB. The average total DOC load was not predicted to change significantly between years 2010 and 2100 due to counteracting decreasing and increasing trends of DOC loads to the six major sub-basins in the Baltic Sea. However, predicted seasonal total loads of POC and DOC increased significantly by ca 46% and 30% in winter and decreased by 8% and 21% in summer over time, respectively. For POC the change in winter loads was a consequence of increasing soil erosion and a shift in duration of snowfall and onset of the spring flood

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

2015-01-01

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

Assessment of oxy-fuel, pre- and post-combustion-based carbon capture for future IGCC plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kunze, Christian; Spliethoff, Hartmut

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Hot gas cleanup is a highly favorable technology for all selected IGCC concepts. ► Proposed high pressure IGCC with membrane reactor enables direct CO 2 condensation. ► IGCC with OTM and carbonate looping enable significant synergy effects. ► Combining IGCC and oxy-fuel is technically challenging but energetically favorable. ► All selected IGCC concepts are able to realize CO 2 capture rates up to 99%. -- Abstract: Environmental damage due to the emission of greenhouse gases from conventional coal-based power plants is a growing concern. Various carbon capture strategies to minimize CO 2 emissions are currently being investigated. Unfortunately, the efficiency drop due to de-carbonization is still significant and the capture rate is limited. Therefore three future hard coal IGCC concepts are assessed here, applying emerging technologies and various carbon capture approaches. The advanced pre-combustion capture concept is based on hot gas clean-up, membrane-enhanced CO conversion and direct CO 2 condensation. The concept reached a net efficiency of 45.1% (LHV), representing an improvement of 6.46% compared to the conventional IGCC base case. The second IGCC concept, based on post-combustion capture via calcination–carbonation loops, hot gas clean-up and oxygen membranes, showed a net efficiency of 45.87% (LHV). The third IGCC concept applies hot gas clean-up and combustion of the unconverted fuel gas using pure oxygen. The oxygen is supplied by an integrated oxygen membrane. The combination of IGCC and oxy-fuel process reached a net efficiency of 45.74% (LHV). In addition to their increased efficiency, all of the concepts showed significantly improved carbon capture rates up to 99%, resulting in virtually carbon-free fossil power plants.

Heterogeneous electrochemical CO2 reduction using nonmetallic carbon-based catalysts: current status and future challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Tao; Fan, Qun; Tao, Hengcong; Han, Zishan; Jia, Mingwen; Gao, Yunnan; Ma, Wangjing; Sun, Zhenyu

2017-11-01

Electrochemical CO2 reduction (ECR) offers an important pathway for renewable energy storage and fuels production. It still remains a challenge in designing highly selective, energy-efficient, robust, and cost-effective electrocatalysts to facilitate this kinetically slow process. Metal-free carbon-based materials have features of low cost, good electrical conductivity, renewability, diverse structure, and tunability in surface chemistry. In particular, surface functionalization of carbon materials, for example by doping with heteroatoms, enables access to unique active site architectures for CO2 adsorption and activation, leading to interesting catalytic performances in ECR. We aim to provide a comprehensive review of this category of metal-free catalysts for ECR, providing discussions and/or comparisons among different nonmetallic catalysts, and also possible origin of catalytic activity. Fundamentals and some future challenges are also described.

Baselines For Land-Use Change In The Tropics: Application ToAvoided Deforestation Projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brown, Sandra; Hall, Myrna; Andrasko, Ken; Ruiz, Fernando; Marzoli, Walter; Guerrero, Gabriela; Masera, Omar; Dushku, Aaron; Dejong,Ben; Cornell, Joseph

2007-06-01

Although forest conservation activities particularly in thetropics offer significant potential for mitigating carbon emissions,these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena causedby the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle,particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has twomain components: the projected land-use change and the correspondingcarbon stocks in the applicable pools such as vegetation, detritus,products and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult toaddress analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparingthree models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of pasttrends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth tomore complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicitmodels of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomicfactors. The three models of the latter category used in the analysis atregional scale are The Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use andCarbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD)model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropicalregions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions,population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) SantaCruz State, Bolivia; (3) Parana State in Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico;(5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacan, Mexico. A comparison of all modeloutputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quitedifferent deforestation baseline. In general, the simplest FAC model,applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highestamount of forest loss (four out of six) and the LUCS model the leastamount of loss (four out of five). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, wefound that readily observable physical and biological factors as well asdistance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as importantas either sociological/demographic or economic

BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

2014-12-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

Baseline radiological monitoring at proposed uranium prospecting site at Rohil Sikar, Rajasthan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, Rajesh; Jha, V.N.; Sahoo, N.K.; Jha, S.K.; Tripathi, R.M.

2018-01-01

Once economically viable grades of uranium deposits are proposed for mining and processing by the industry radiological baseline studies are required for future comparison during operational phases. The information collected during such studies serve as connecting feature between regulatory compliance and technical information. Present paper summarizes the results of baseline monitoring of atmospheric 222 Rn and gamma level in the area at prospecting mining, milling and waste disposal sites of Rohil Rajasthan

Interactions of Reduced Deforestation and the Carbon Market: The Role of Market Regulations and Future Commitments

OpenAIRE

Anger, Niels; Dixon, Alistair; Livengood, Erich

2009-01-01

Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) has been proposed as a potentially inexpensive and plentiful source of emission abatement to supplement other longterm climate policies. However, critics doubt that REDD credits are environmentally equivalent to domestic emission reductions, and suggest an excess supply may disrupt carbon markets. In this context, we investigate the economic implications of emissions market regulations and future emissions reduction commitments, as ...

Powernext Day-Ahead. Powernext Futures. Powernext Carbon. Powernext Weather. 2006 activity assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This activity report presents the highlights of the market and of Powernext in 2006: market conditions (prices on the electricity market, prices on the CO 2 emission allowances market, weather conditions, institutional aspects of the CO 2 market, power generation and consumption, situation at the borders, fuel prices), traded volumes on Powernext (Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts, and Powernext Carbon in the case of CO 2 ), new active members, and Powernext liquidity on the power market. (J.S.)

Impact of idealized future stratospheric aerosol injection on the large-scale ocean and land carbon cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Tjiputra, J. F.; Grini, A.; Lee, H.

2016-01-01

Using an Earth system model, we simulate stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on top of the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 future scenario. Our idealized method prescribes aerosol concentration, linearly increasing from 2020 to 2100, and thereafter remaining constant until 2200. In the aggressive scenario, the model projects a cooling trend toward 2100 despite warming that persists in the high latitudes. Following SAI termination in 2100, a rapid global warming of 0.35 K yr-1 is simulated in the subsequent 10 years, and the global mean temperature returns to levels close to the reference state, though roughly 0.5 K cooler. In contrast to earlier findings, we show a weak response in the terrestrial carbon sink during SAI implementation in the 21st century, which we attribute to nitrogen limitation. The SAI increases the land carbon uptake in the temperate forest-, grassland-, and shrub-dominated regions. The resultant lower temperatures lead to a reduction in the heterotrophic respiration rate and increase soil carbon retention. Changes in precipitation patterns are key drivers for variability in vegetation carbon. Upon SAI termination, the level of vegetation carbon storage returns to the reference case, whereas the soil carbon remains high. The ocean absorbs nearly 10% more carbon in the geoengineered simulation than in the reference simulation, leading to a ˜15 ppm lower atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2100. The largest enhancement in uptake occurs in the North Atlantic. In both hemispheres' polar regions, SAI delays the sea ice melting and, consequently, export production remains low. In the deep water of North Atlantic, SAI-induced circulation changes accelerate the ocean acidification rate and broaden the affected area.

Future Circular Collider Study FCC-he Baseline Parameters

CERN Document Server

Bruning, Oliver; Klein, Max; Pellegrini, Dario; Schulte, Daniel; Zimmermann, Frank

2017-01-01

Initial considerations are presented on the FCC-he, the electron-hadron collider con guration within the Future Circular Collider study. This note considers arguments for the choice of the electron beam energy based on physics, ep scattering kinematics and cost. The default con guration for the electron accelerator, as for the LHeC, is chosen to be a multi-turn energy recovery linac external to the proton beam tunnel. The main accelerator parameters of the FCC-he are discussed, assuming the concurrent operation of ep with the 100TeV cms energy pp collider. These are compared with the LHeC design concept, for increased performance as for a Higgs facility using the HL-LHC, and also the high energy HE-LHC ep collider configuration. Initial estimates are also provided for the luminosity performance of electron-ion colliders for the 60 GeV electron ERL when combined with the LHC, the HE-LHC and the FCC ion beams.

Powernext Day-Ahead. Powernext Futures. Powernext Carbon. Powernext Weather. Activity assessment first-half 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility which organizes and warrants the transactions on the European power exchange and CO 2 exchange markets. This activity report presents the highlights of the market and of Powernext in the first half of 2006: market conditions, prices and traded volumes on Powernext (Powernext Day-Ahead TM in the case of day-ahead contracts, Powernext Futures TM in the case of medium-term contracts, and Powernext Carbon in the case of CO 2 ), new active members, and liquidity on the power market. (J.S.)

A Carbon-Free Energy Future

Science.gov (United States)

Linden, H. R.; Singer, S. F.

2001-12-01

It is generally agreed that hydrogen is an ideal energy source, both for transportation and for the generation of electric power. Through the use of fuel cells, hydrogen becomes a high-efficiency carbon-free power source for electromotive transport; with the help of regenerative braking, cars should be able to reach triple the current mileage. Many have visualized a distributed electric supply network with decentralized generation based on fuel cells. Fuel cells can provide high generation efficiencies by overcoming the fundamental thermodynamic limitation imposed by the Carnot cycle. Further, by using the heat energy of the high-temperature fuel cell in co-generation, one can achieve total thermal efficiencies approaching 100 percent, as compared to present-day average power-plant efficiencies of around 35 percent. In addition to reducing CO2 emissions, distributed generation based on fuel cells also eliminates the tremendous release of waste heat into the environment, the need for cooling water, and related limitations on siting. Manufacture of hydrogen remains a key problem, but there are many technical solutions that come into play whenever the cost equations permit . One can visualize both central and local hydrogen production. Initially, reforming of abundant natural gas into mixtures of 80% H2 and 20% CO2 provides a relatively low-emission source of hydrogen. Conventional fossil-fuel plants and nuclear plants can become hydrogen factories using both high-temperature topping cycles and electrolysis of water. Hydro-electric plants can manufacture hydrogen by electrolysis. Later, photovoltaic and wind farms could be set up at favorable locations around the world as hydrogen factories. If perfected, photovoltaic hydrogen production through catalysis would use solar photons most efficiently . For both wind and PV, hydrogen production solves some crucial problems: intermittency of wind and of solar radiation, storage of energy, and use of locations that are not

Mass hierarchy sensitivity of medium baseline reactor neutrino experiments with multiple detectors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Hong-Xin, E-mail: hxwang@iphy.me [Department of Physics, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Zhan, Liang; Li, Yu-Feng; Cao, Guo-Fu [Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Chen, Shen-Jian [Department of Physics, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China)

2017-05-15

We report the neutrino mass hierarchy (MH) determination of medium baseline reactor neutrino experiments with multiple detectors, where the sensitivity of measuring the MH can be significantly improved by adding a near detector. Then the impact of the baseline and target mass of the near detector on the combined MH sensitivity has been studied thoroughly. The optimal selections of the baseline and target mass of the near detector are ∼12.5 km and ∼4 kton respectively for a far detector with the target mass of 20 kton and the baseline of 52.5 km. As typical examples of future medium baseline reactor neutrino experiments, the optimal location and target mass of the near detector are selected for the specific configurations of JUNO and RENO-50. Finally, we discuss distinct effects of the reactor antineutrino energy spectrum uncertainty for setups of a single detector and double detectors, which indicate that the spectrum uncertainty can be well constrained in the presence of the near detector.

Ecosystem carbon stocks and sequestration potential of federal lands across the conterminous United States

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Zhengxi; Liu, Shuguang; Sohl, Terry L.; Wu, Yiping; Young, Claudia J.

2015-01-01

Federal lands across the conterminous United States (CONUS) account for 23.5% of the CONUS terrestrial area but have received no systematic studies on their ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics and contribution to the national C budgets. The methodology for US Congress-mandated national biological C sequestration potential assessment was used to evaluate ecosystem C dynamics in CONUS federal lands at present and in the future under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B, A2, and B1. The total ecosystem C stock was estimated as 11,613 Tg C in 2005 and projected to be 13,965 Tg C in 2050, an average increase of 19.4% from the baseline. The projected annual C sequestration rate (in kilograms of carbon per hectare per year) from 2006 to 2050 would be sinks of 620 and 228 for forests and grasslands, respectively, and C sources of 13 for shrublands. The federal lands’ contribution to the national ecosystem C budget could decrease from 23.3% in 2005 to 20.8% in 2050. The C sequestration potential in the future depends not only on the footprint of individual ecosystems but also on each federal agency’s land use and management. The results presented here update our current knowledge about the baseline ecosystem C stock and sequestration potential of federal lands, which would be useful for federal agencies to decide management practices to achieve the national greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation goal.

Ecosystem carbon stocks and sequestration potential of federal lands across the conterminous United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Zhengxi; Liu, Shuguang; Sohl, Terry L; Wu, Yiping; Young, Claudia J

2015-10-13

Federal lands across the conterminous United States (CONUS) account for 23.5% of the CONUS terrestrial area but have received no systematic studies on their ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics and contribution to the national C budgets. The methodology for US Congress-mandated national biological C sequestration potential assessment was used to evaluate ecosystem C dynamics in CONUS federal lands at present and in the future under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B, A2, and B1. The total ecosystem C stock was estimated as 11,613 Tg C in 2005 and projected to be 13,965 Tg C in 2050, an average increase of 19.4% from the baseline. The projected annual C sequestration rate (in kilograms of carbon per hectare per year) from 2006 to 2050 would be sinks of 620 and 228 for forests and grasslands, respectively, and C sources of 13 for shrublands. The federal lands' contribution to the national ecosystem C budget could decrease from 23.3% in 2005 to 20.8% in 2050. The C sequestration potential in the future depends not only on the footprint of individual ecosystems but also on each federal agency's land use and management. The results presented here update our current knowledge about the baseline ecosystem C stock and sequestration potential of federal lands, which would be useful for federal agencies to decide management practices to achieve the national greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation goal.

Developing RESRAD-BASELINE for environmental baseline risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, Jing-Jy.

1995-01-01

RESRAD-BASELINE is a computer code developed at Argonne developed at Argonne National Laboratory for the US Department of Energy (DOE) to perform both radiological and chemical risk assessments. The code implements the baseline risk assessment guidance of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 1989). The computer code calculates (1) radiation doses and cancer risks from exposure to radioactive materials, and (2) hazard indexes and cancer risks from exposure to noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic chemicals, respectively. The user can enter measured or predicted environmental media concentrations from the graphic interface and can simulate different exposure scenarios by selecting the appropriate pathways and modifying the exposure parameters. The database used by PESRAD-BASELINE includes dose conversion factors and slope factors for radionuclides and toxicity information and properties for chemicals. The user can modify the database for use in the calculation. Sensitivity analysis can be performed while running the computer code to examine the influence of the input parameters. Use of RESRAD-BASELINE for risk analysis is easy, fast, and cost-saving. Furthermore, it ensures in consistency in methodology for both radiological and chemical risk analyses

Photosynthetic energy conversion efficiency: setting a baseline for gauging future improvements in important food and biofuel crops.

Science.gov (United States)

Slattery, Rebecca A; Ort, Donald R

2015-06-01

The conversion efficiency (ε(c)) of absorbed radiation into biomass (MJ of dry matter per MJ of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation) is a component of yield potential that has been estimated at less than half the theoretical maximum. Various strategies have been proposed to improve ε(c), but a statistical analysis to establish baseline ε(c) levels across different crop functional types is lacking. Data from 164 published ε(c) studies conducted in relatively unstressed growth conditions were used to determine the means, greatest contributors to variation, and genetic trends in ε(c )across important food and biofuel crop species. ε(c) was greatest in biofuel crops (0.049-0.066), followed by C4 food crops (0.046-0.049), C3 nonlegumes (0.036-0.041), and finally C3 legumes (0.028-0.035). Despite confining our analysis to relatively unstressed growth conditions, total incident solar radiation and average growing season temperature most often accounted for the largest portion of ε(c) variability. Genetic improvements in ε(c), when present, were less than 0.7% per year, revealing the unrealized potential of improving ε(c) as a promising contributing strategy to meet projected future agricultural demand. © 2015 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Low carbon transport : a greener future

Science.gov (United States)

2009-07-01

This strategy is intended to enable the UK to meet the requirements of the carbon budgets set under the Climate Change Act 2008. Implementation of the strategy will be taken forward in a way that recognises and respects the policy responsibilities an...

Future forest carbon accounting challenges: the question of regionalization

Science.gov (United States)

Michael C. Nichols

2015-01-01

Forest carbon accounting techniques are changing. This year, a new accounting system is making its debut with the production of forest carbon data for EPA’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. The Forest Service’s annualized inventory system is being more fully integrated into estimates of forest carbon at the national and state levels both for the present and the...

Baseline for trust: defining 'new and additional' climate funding

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stadelmann, Martin [University of Zurich (Switzerland); Roberts, J. Timmons [Brown University (United States); Huq, Saleemul

2010-06-15

Climate finance is becoming a dark curve on the road from Copenhagen to Cancún. Poorer nations fear that richer ones will fulfil the US$30 billion 'fast-start' climate finance promises made in the non-binding Copenhagen Accord by relabelling or diverting basic development aid, or by simply delivering on past climate finance pledges. The problem is simple: contributor countries are operating with no clear baseline against which their promise of 'new and additional' funding can be counted – and they do not accept the baselines put forth by developing countries. A viable solution for the short term is to use projections of business-as-usual development assistance as baselines. The longer-term benchmark could be the provision of truly 'new' funds from new funding sources. Substantial up-front negotiations may be required, but seizing this opportunity to define baselines will build confidence on both sides and create predictability for future finance.

Baseline disability in activities of daily living predicts dementia risk even after controlling for baseline global cognitive ability and depressive symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Fauth, Elizabeth B; Schwartz, Sarah; Tschanz, Joann T; Østbye, Truls; Corcoran, Christopher; Norton, Maria C

2013-06-01

Late-life disability in activities of daily living (ADL) is theorized to be driven by underlying cognitive and/or physical impairment, interacting with psychological and environmental factors. Although we expect that cognitive deficits would explain associations between ADL disability and dementia risk, the current study examined ADL as a predictor of future dementia after controlling for global cognitive status. The population-based Cache County Memory Study (N = 3547) assessed individuals in four triennial waves (average age 74.9 years, years of education 13.36 years; 57.9% were women). Cox proportional hazards regression models assessed whether baseline ADL disability (presence of 2+ Instrumental ADL and/or 1+ Personal ADL) predicted incident dementia after controlling for APOE status, gender, age, baseline cognitive ability (Modified Mini-mental State Exam, 3MS-R; adjusted for education level), and baseline depressive symptoms (Diagnostic Interview Schedule). Over the course of study, 571 cases of incident dementia were identified through in-depth cognitive assessment, ending in expert consensus diagnosis. Results from Cox models suggest that ADL disability is a statistically significant predictor of incident dementia (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.83, p controlling for covariates. Findings suggest that ADL disability offers unique contributions in risk for incident dementia, even after controlling for global cognitive status. We discuss how physical impairment and executive function may play important roles in this relationship, and how ADL is useful, not just a diagnostic tool at, or after dementia onset, but also as a risk factor for future dementia, even in individuals not impaired on global cognitive tests. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Variability of building environmental assessment tools on evaluating carbon emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ng, S. Thomas, E-mail: tstng@hkucc.hku.hk; Chen Yuan, E-mail: chenyuan4@gmail.com; Wong, James M.W., E-mail: jmwwong@hku.hk

2013-01-15

With an increasing importance of sustainability in construction, more and more clients and designers employ building environmental assessment (BEA) tools to evaluate the environmental friendliness of their building facilities, and one important aspect of evaluation in the BEA models is the assessment of carbon emissions. However, in the absence of any agreed framework for carbon auditing and benchmarking, the results generated by the BEA tools might vary significantly which could lead to confusion or misinterpretation on the carbon performance of a building. This study thus aims to unveil the properties of and the standard imposed by the current BEA models on evaluating the life cycle carbon emissions. The analyses cover the (i) weighting of energy efficiency and emission levels among various environmental performance indicators; (ii) building life cycle stages in which carbon is taken into consideration; (iii) objectiveness of assessment; (iv) baseline set for carbon assessment; (v) mechanism for benchmarking the emission level; and (v) limitations of the carbon assessment approaches. Results indicate that the current BEA schemes focus primarily on operational carbon instead of the emissions generated throughout the entire building life cycle. Besides, the baseline and benchmark for carbon evaluation vary significantly among the BEA tools based on the analytical results of a hypothetical building. The findings point to the needs for a more transparent framework for carbon auditing and benchmarking in BEA modeling. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Carbon emission evaluation in building environmental assessment schemes are studied. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Simulative carbon emission is modeled for building environmental assessment schemes. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Carbon assessments focus primarily on operational stage instead of entire lifecycle. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Baseline and benchmark of carbon assessment vary greatly among BEA

Variability of building environmental assessment tools on evaluating carbon emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ng, S. Thomas; Chen Yuan; Wong, James M.W.

2013-01-01

With an increasing importance of sustainability in construction, more and more clients and designers employ building environmental assessment (BEA) tools to evaluate the environmental friendliness of their building facilities, and one important aspect of evaluation in the BEA models is the assessment of carbon emissions. However, in the absence of any agreed framework for carbon auditing and benchmarking, the results generated by the BEA tools might vary significantly which could lead to confusion or misinterpretation on the carbon performance of a building. This study thus aims to unveil the properties of and the standard imposed by the current BEA models on evaluating the life cycle carbon emissions. The analyses cover the (i) weighting of energy efficiency and emission levels among various environmental performance indicators; (ii) building life cycle stages in which carbon is taken into consideration; (iii) objectiveness of assessment; (iv) baseline set for carbon assessment; (v) mechanism for benchmarking the emission level; and (v) limitations of the carbon assessment approaches. Results indicate that the current BEA schemes focus primarily on operational carbon instead of the emissions generated throughout the entire building life cycle. Besides, the baseline and benchmark for carbon evaluation vary significantly among the BEA tools based on the analytical results of a hypothetical building. The findings point to the needs for a more transparent framework for carbon auditing and benchmarking in BEA modeling. - Highlights: ► Carbon emission evaluation in building environmental assessment schemes are studied. ► Simulative carbon emission is modeled for building environmental assessment schemes. ► Carbon assessments focus primarily on operational stage instead of entire lifecycle. ► Baseline and benchmark of carbon assessment vary greatly among BEA schemes. ► A more transparent and comprehensive framework for carbon assessment is required.

Tropical forest carbon assessment: integrating satellite and airborne mapping approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asner, Gregory P

2009-01-01

Large-scale carbon mapping is needed to support the UNFCCC program to reduce deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). Managers of forested land can potentially increase their carbon credits via detailed monitoring of forest cover, loss and gain (hectares), and periodic estimates of changes in forest carbon density (tons ha -1 ). Satellites provide an opportunity to monitor changes in forest carbon caused by deforestation and degradation, but only after initial carbon densities have been assessed. New airborne approaches, especially light detection and ranging (LiDAR), provide a means to estimate forest carbon density over large areas, which greatly assists in the development of practical baselines. Here I present an integrated satellite-airborne mapping approach that supports high-resolution carbon stock assessment and monitoring in tropical forest regions. The approach yields a spatially resolved, regional state-of-the-forest carbon baseline, followed by high-resolution monitoring of forest cover and disturbance to estimate carbon emissions. Rapid advances and decreasing costs in the satellite and airborne mapping sectors are already making high-resolution carbon stock and emissions assessments viable anywhere in the world.

Reversing climate change how carbon removals can resolve climate change and fix the economy

CERN Document Server

Chichilnisky, Graciela

2018-01-01

The Kyoto Protocol capped the emissions of the main emitters, the industrialized countries, one by one. It also created an innovative financial mechanism, the Carbon Market and its Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which allows developing nations to receive carbon credits when they reduce their emissions below their baselines. The carbon market, an economic system that created a price for carbon for the first time, is now used in four continents, is promoted by the World Bank, and is recommended even by leading oil and gas companies. However, one critical problem for the future of the Kyoto Protocol is the continuing impasse between the rich and the poor nations. Who should reduce emissions — the rich or the poor countries? This book is about the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or COP21, held from 30 November to 11 December 2015 in Paris, which brought together around 40,000 participants in total — with delegates repre...

Environmental impacts of future low-carbon electricity systems: Detailed life cycle assessment of a Danish case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turconi, Roberto; Tonini, Davide; Nielsen, Christian F.B.; Simonsen, Christian G.; Astrup, Thomas

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Environmental impact of a power system with a high share of wind power assessed. • LCI data for electricity supply in Denmark in 2010 and 2030 (low carbon) provided. • Focus on GHG reduction may lead to increase in other impact categories. • Imported biomass might cause high GHG emissions form Land Use Change. • Need for guidelines for LCA of electricity supply (cogeneration and power import). - Abstract: The need to reduce dependency on fossil resources and to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is driving many countries towards the implementation of low-carbon electricity systems. In this study the environmental impact of a future (2030) possible low-carbon electricity system in Denmark was assessed and compared with the current situation (2010) and an alternative 2030 scenario using life cycle assessment (LCA). The influence on the final results of the modeling approach used for (i) electricity import, (ii) biomass resources, and (iii) the cogeneration of heat and power was discussed. The results showed that consumption of fossil resources and global warming impacts from the Danish electricity sector could be reduced significantly compared with 2010. Nevertheless, a reduction in GHG may be at the expense of other environmental impacts, such as the increased depletion of abiotic resources. Moreover, the results were very dependent upon biomass origin: when agricultural land was affected by biomass import, and land use changes and transportation were included, GHG emissions from imported biomass were comparable to those from fossil fuels. The results were significantly influenced by the modeling approach regarding the import of electricity, biomass provision, and the allocation between heat and power in cogeneration plants. As the importance of all three aspects is likely to increase in the future, transparency in LCA modeling is critical. Characterized impacts for Danish power plants in 2010 and 2030 (including corresponding

The Female Athlete Body (FAB) study: Rationale, design, and baseline characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Tiffany M; Pollard, Tarryn; Hildebrandt, Tom; Beyl, Robbie; Wesley, Nicole; Kilpela, Lisa Smith; Becker, Carolyn Black

2017-09-01

Eating Disorders (EDs) are serious psychiatric illnesses marked by psychiatric comorbidity, medical complications, and functional impairment. Research indicates that female athletes are often at greater risk for developing ED pathology versus non-athlete females. The Female Athlete Body (FAB) study is a three-site, randomized controlled trial (RCT) designed to assess the efficacy of a behavioral ED prevention program for female collegiate athletes when implemented by community providers. This paper describes the design, intervention, and participant baseline characteristics. Future papers will discuss outcomes. Female collegiate athletes (N=481) aged 17-21 were randomized by site, team, and sport type to either FAB or a waitlist control group. FAB consisted of three sessions (1.3h each) of a behavioral ED prevention program. Assessments were conducted at baseline (pre-intervention), post-intervention (3weeks), and six-, 12-, and 18-month follow-ups. This study achieved 96% (N=481) of target recruitment (N=500). Few group differences emerged at baseline. Total sample analyses revealed moderately low baseline instances of ED symptoms and clinical cases. Health risks associated with EDs necessitate interventions for female athletes. The FAB study is the largest existing RCT for female athletes aimed at both reduction of ED risk factors and ED prevention. The methods presented and population recruited for this study represent an ideal intervention for assessing the effects of FAB on both the aforementioned outcomes. We anticipate that findings of this study (reported in future papers) will make a significant contribution to the ED risk factor reduction and prevention literature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scoping paper on new CDM baseline methodology for cross-border power trade

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

Poeyry has been sub-contracted by Carbon Limits, under the African Development Bank CDM Support Programme, to prepare a new CDM baseline methodology for cross border trade, based on a transmission line from Ethiopia to Kenya. The first step in that process is to review the response of the UNFCCC, particularly the Methodologies Panel ('Meth Panel') of the CDM Executive Board, to the various proposals on cross-border trade and interconnection of grids. This report reviews the Methodology Panel and Executive Board decisions on 4 requests for revisions of ACM2 'Consolidated baseline methodology for grid-connected electricity generation from renewable sources', and 5 proposed new baseline methodologies (NM255, NM269, NM272, NM318, NM342), all of which were rejected. We analyse the reasons the methodologies were rejected, and whether the proposed draft Approved Methodology (AM) that the Methodology Panel created in response to NM269 and NM272 is a suitable basis for a new methodology proposal.(auth)

NA61/SHINE Data For Long Baseline Neutrino Experiments

CERN Document Server

Hälser, Alexis

2015-01-01

Accelerator based long baseline neutrino experiments require precise neutrino fl ux predictions to reach their physics goals. These experiments are commonly based on a set of two detectors. At the near detector, cross section measurements are performed and the neutrino fl ux can be observed before oscillation, while at the far detector the signal for neutrino oscillations is studied. An accurate knowledge on hadron production is mandatory in order to predict the neutrino fluxes. The NA61/SHINE facility at the CERN SPS has proven its ability to deliver high quality measurements of hadron production for the long baseline neutrino experiments. In this paper, the latest results from N A61 /SHINE for the neutrino physics programme are reviewed and future plans are presented.

Modeling Future Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Environmental Impacts of Electricity Supplies in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melissa M. Bilec

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Brazil’s status as a rapidly developing country is visible in its need for more energy, including electricity. While the current electricity generation mix is primarily hydropower based, high-quality dam sites are diminishing and diversification to other sources is likely. We combined life-cycle data for electricity production with scenarios developed using the IAEA’s MESSAGE model to examine environmental impacts of future electricity generation under a baseline case and four side cases, using a Monte-Carlo approach to incorporate uncertainty in power plant performance and LCA impacts. Our results show that, under the cost-optimal base case scenario, Brazil’s GHGs from electricity (excluding hydroelectric reservoir emissions rise 370% by 2040 relative to 2010, with the carbon intensity per MWh rising 100%. This rise would make Brazil’s carbon emissions targets difficult to meet without demand-side programs. Our results show a future electricity mix dominated by environmental tradeoffs in the use of large-scale renewables, questioning the use tropical hydropower and highlighting the need for additional work to assess and include ecosystem and social impacts, where information is currently sparse.

Climate change impact on future ocean acidification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McNeil, Ben

2007-01-01

Full text: Elevated atmospheric C02 levels and associated uptake by the ocean is changing its carbon chemistry, leading to an acidification. The implications of future ocean acidification on the marine ecosystem are unclear but seemingly detrimental particularly to those organisms and phytoplankton that secrete calcium carbonate (like corals). Here we present new results from the Australian CSIRO General Circulation Model that predicts the changing nature of oceanic carbon chemistry in response to future climate change feedbacks (circulation, temperature and biological). We will discuss the implications of future ocean acidification and the potential implications on Australia's marine ecosystems

A Monte Carlo based decision-support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a novel decision-support tool for assessing future generation portfolios in an increasingly uncertain electricity industry. The tool combines optimal generation mix concepts with Monte Carlo simulation and portfolio analysis techniques to determine expected overall industry costs, associated cost uncertainty, and expected CO 2 emissions for different generation portfolio mixes. The tool can incorporate complex and correlated probability distributions for estimated future fossil-fuel costs, carbon prices, plant investment costs, and demand, including price elasticity impacts. The intent of this tool is to facilitate risk-weighted generation investment and associated policy decision-making given uncertainties facing the electricity industry. Applications of this tool are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with coal, CCGT, and OCGT facing future uncertainties. Results highlight some significant generation investment challenges, including the impacts of uncertain and correlated carbon and fossil-fuel prices, the role of future demand changes in response to electricity prices, and the impact of construction cost uncertainties on capital intensive generation. The tool can incorporate virtually any type of input probability distribution, and support sophisticated risk assessments of different portfolios, including downside economic risks. It can also assess portfolios against multi-criterion objectives such as greenhouse emissions as well as overall industry costs. - Highlights: ► Present a decision support tool to assist generation investment and policy making under uncertainty. ► Generation portfolios are assessed based on their expected costs, risks, and CO 2 emissions. ► There is tradeoff among expected cost, risks, and CO 2 emissions of generation portfolios. ► Investment challenges include economic impact of uncertainties and the effect of price elasticity. ► CO 2 emissions reduction depends on the mix of

Mass hierarchy sensitivity of medium baseline reactor neutrino experiments with multiple detectors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong-Xin Wang

2017-05-01

Full Text Available We report the neutrino mass hierarchy (MH determination of medium baseline reactor neutrino experiments with multiple detectors, where the sensitivity of measuring the MH can be significantly improved by adding a near detector. Then the impact of the baseline and target mass of the near detector on the combined MH sensitivity has been studied thoroughly. The optimal selections of the baseline and target mass of the near detector are ∼12.5 km and ∼4 kton respectively for a far detector with the target mass of 20 kton and the baseline of 52.5 km. As typical examples of future medium baseline reactor neutrino experiments, the optimal location and target mass of the near detector are selected for the specific configurations of JUNO and RENO-50. Finally, we discuss distinct effects of the reactor antineutrino energy spectrum uncertainty for setups of a single detector and double detectors, which indicate that the spectrum uncertainty can be well constrained in the presence of the near detector.

National greenhouse gas emissions baseline scenarios. Learning from experiences in developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-04-15

This report reviews national approaches to preparing baseline scenarios of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. It does so by describing and comparing in non-technical language existing practices and choices made by ten developing countries - Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Vietnam. The review focuses on a number of key elements, including model choices, transparency considerations, choices about underlying assumptions and challenges associated with data management. The aim is to improve overall understanding of baseline scenarios and facilitate their use for policy-making in developing countries more broadly. The findings are based on the results of a collaborative project involving a number of activities undertaken by the Danish Energy Agency, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UNEP Risoe Centre (URC), including a series of workshops on the subject. The ten contributing countries account for approximately 40% of current global GHG emissions - a share that is expected to increase in the future. The breakdown of emissions by sector varies widely among these countries. In some countries, the energy sector is the leading source of emissions; for others, the land-use sector and/or agricultural sector dominate emissions. The report underscores some common technical and financial capacity gaps faced by developing countries when preparing baseline scenarios. It does not endeavour to propose guidelines for preparing baseline scenarios. Rather, it is hoped that the report will inform any future attempts at preparing such kind of guidelines. (Author)

Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Biying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Kei, Gomi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2018-02-01

Population dynamics has been acknowledged as a key concern for projecting future emissions, partly because of the huge uncertainties related to human behaviour. However, the heterogeneous shifts of human behaviour in the process of demographic transition are not well explored when scrutinizing the impacts of population dynamics on carbon emissions. Here, we expand the existing population-economy-environment analytical structure to address the above limitations by representing the trend of demographic transitions to small-family and ageing society. We specifically accommodate for inter- and intra-life-stage variations in time allocation and consumption in the population rather than assuming a representative household, and take a less developed province, Sichuan, in China as the empirical context. Our results show that the demographic shift to small and ageing households will boost energy consumption and carbon emissions, driven by the joint variations in time-use and consumption patterns. Furthermore, biased pictures of changing emissions will emerge if the time effect is disregarded.

[Variation of forest vegetation carbon storage and carbon sequestration rate in Liaoning Province, Northeast China].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhen, Wei; Huang, Mei; Zhai, Yin-Li; Chen, Ke; Gong, Ya-Zhen

2014-05-01

The forest vegetation carbon stock and carbon sequestration rate in Liaoning Province, Northeast China, were predicted by using Canadian carbon balance model (CBM-CFS3) combining with the forest resource data. The future spatio-temporal distribution and trends of vegetation carbon storage, carbon density and carbon sequestration rate were projected, based on the two scenarios, i. e. with or without afforestation. The result suggested that the total forest vegetation carbon storage and carbon density in Liaoning Province in 2005 were 133.94 Tg and 25.08 t x hm(-2), respectively. The vegetation carbon storage in Quercus was the biggest, while in Robinia pseudoacacia was the least. Both Larix olgensis and broad-leaved forests had higher vegetation carbon densities than others, and the vegetation carbon densities of Pinus tabuliformis, Quercus and Robinia pseudoacacia were close to each other. The spatial distribution of forest vegetation carbon density in Liaoning Province showed a decrease trend from east to west. In the eastern forest area, the future increase of vegetation carbon density would be smaller than those in the northern forest area, because most of the forests in the former part were matured or over matured, while most of the forests in the later part were young. Under the scenario of no afforestation, the future increment of total forest vegetation carbon stock in Liaoning Province would increase gradually, and the total carbon sequestration rate would decrease, while they would both increase significantly under the afforestation scenario. Therefore, afforestation plays an important role in increasing vegetation carbon storage, carbon density and carbon sequestration rate.

Application Of The Climafor Baseline To Determine Leakage: TheCase Of Scolel Te.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De Jong, B.H.J.; Bazan, E. Esquivel; Quechulpa Montalvo, S.

2007-06-01

The acceptance of forestry-based project activities tomitigate greenhouse gases emissions has been subjected to a number ofmethodological questions to be answered, of which the most challengingare baseline establishment and identification of and measuring leakage.Here we pose hypotheses for and quantify leakage of the Scolel Te projectin Chiapas, Mexico. In this project small-scale farmers are implementingforestry, agroforestry, and forest conservation activities, with carbonsequestration as one of the goals. The main leakage monitoring domain isdefined as the area owned by the participating farmers or communitiesoutside the area where the specific project activities take place. Thenull-hypothesis (no leakage) is that non-project land owned by the farmeror community will experience the same carbon stock changes as predictedby the regional baseline, specifically developed for the project. Firstwe assessed the most likely causes and sources of leakage that may occurin the project. From this analysis, one type of leakage seems to beimportant, i.e., activity shifting. Second we estimated the leakage of asample of participating farmers and communities. Actual land use was thencompared with expected land use derived from the baseline. The Plan Vivoof each participant, complemented with readily available tools toidentify the main sources and drivers of leakage are used to developsimple leakage assessment procedures, as demonstrated in this paper.Negative leakage was estimated to be negligible in this study.Incorporating these procedures already in the project planning stage willreduce the uncertainties related to the actual carbon mitigationpotential of any forestry project.

Future climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

La Croce, A.

1991-01-01

According to George Woodwell, founder of the Woods Hole Research Center, due the combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation and accelerated respiration, the net annual increase of carbon, in the form of carbon dioxide, to the 750 billion tonnes already present in the earth's atmosphere, is in the order of 3 to 5 billion tonnes. Around the world, scientists, investigating the probable effects of this increase on the earth's future climate, are now formulating coupled air and ocean current models which take account of water temperature and salinity dependent carbon dioxide exchange mechanisms acting between the atmosphere and deep layers of ocean waters

Baselining PMU Data to Find Patterns and Anomalies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amidan, Brett G.; Follum, James D.; Freeman, Kimberly A.; Dagle, Jeffery E.

2016-10-25

This paper looks at the application of situational awareness methodologies with respect to power grid data. These methodologies establish baselines that look for typical patterns and atypical behavior in the data. The objectives of the baselining analyses are to provide: real-time analytics, the capability to look at historical trends and events, and reliable predictions of the near future state of the grid. Multivariate algorithms were created to establish normal baseline behavior and then score each moment in time according to its variance from the baseline. Detailed multivariate analytical techniques are described in this paper that produced ways to identify typical patterns and atypical behavior. In this case, atypical behavior is behavior that is unenvisioned. Visualizations were also produced to help explain the behavior that was identified mathematically. Examples are shown to help describe how to read and interpret the analyses and visualizations. Preliminary work has been performed on PMU data sets from BPA (Bonneville Power Administration) and EI (Eastern Interconnect). Actual results are not fully shown here because of confidentiality issues. Comparisons between atypical events found mathematically and actual events showed that many of the actual events are also atypical events; however there are many atypical events that do not correlate to any actual events. Additional work needs to be done to help classify the atypical events into actual events, so that the importance of the events can be better understood.

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Transuranic Waste Baseline inventory report. Volume 1. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-02-01

This document provides baseline inventories of transuranic wastes for the WIPP facility. Information on waste forms, forecasting of future inventories, and waste stream originators is also provided. A diskette is provided which contains the inventory database

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Transuranic Waste Baseline inventory report. Volume 1. Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-02-01

This document provides baseline inventories of transuranic wastes for the WIPP facility. Information on waste forms, forecasting of future inventories, and waste stream originators is also provided. A diskette is provided which contains the inventory database.

Super-NOvA a long-baseline neutrino experiment with two off-axis detectors

CERN Document Server

Requejo, O M; Pascoli, S; Requejo, Olga Mena; Palomares-Ruiz, Sergio; Pascoli, Silvia

2005-01-01

Establishing the neutrino mass hierarchy is one of the fundamental questions that will have to be addressed in the next future. Its determination could be obtained with long-baseline experiments but typically suffers from degeneracies with other neutrino parameters. We consider here the NOvA experiment configuration and propose to place a second off-axis detector, with a shorter baseline, such that, by exploiting matter effects, the type of neutrino mass hierarchy could be determined with only the neutrino run. We show that the determination of this parameter is free of degeneracies, provided the ratio L/E, where L the baseline and E is the neutrino energy, is the same for both detectors.

Soil respiration and its role in Russia's terrestrial C flux balance for the Kyoto baseline year

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stolbovoi, Vladimir

2003-01-01

This study introduces a transparent, operational model of estimating soil respiration (SR) to meet the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change within a framework of full carbon accounting (Nilsson et al.; 2000). By applying this model, we are able to define SR for the Kyoto 1990 baseline year for Russia (3200 Tg C), and establish soil emission thresholds for any spatial units, e.g. vegetation zones and land-use patterns. This model is built upon a fundamental biogeochemical cycle and provides a scientific basis for carbon management. SR comprised about 74% of the photosynthetically assimilated carbon in 1990, with the remainder accounted for in several areas. The carbon flux balance is, therefore, found to be closed for Russia. Our findings suggest that incomplete accounting is the reason for missing carbon globally

Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olaleye, Olaitan; Baker, Erin

2015-01-01

In this study, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D investments in Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-fuels, Bio-electricity, and Batteries for Electric Transportation. Based on a global scenario analysis, we examine the impact on the economy of advancement in energy technologies, considering both individual technologies and the interactions between pairs of technologies, with a focus on the role of uncertainty. Nuclear and CCS have the most impact on abatement costs, with CCS mostly important at high levels of abatement. We show that CCS and Bio-electricity are complements, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. We also examine for stochastic dominance between R&D portfolios: given the uncertainty in R&D outcomes, we examine which portfolios would be preferred by all decision-makers, regardless of their attitude toward risk. We observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; and portfolios lacking CCS and Nuclear tend to be stochastically dominated by others. We find that the dominance of CCS becomes even stronger as uncertainty in climate damages increases. Finally, we show that there is significant value in carefully choosing a portfolio, as relatively small portfolios can dominate large portfolios. - Highlights: • We examine future energy scenarios in the face of R&D and climate uncertainty. • We examine the impact of advancement in energy technologies and pairs of technologies. • CCS complements Bio-electricity while most technology pairs are substitutes. • R&D portfolios without CCS are stochastically dominated by portfolios with CCS. • Higher damage uncertainty favors R&D development of CCS and Bio-electricity

Radionuclides in marine macroalgae from Amchitka and Kiska Islands in the Aleutians: establishing a baseline for future biomonitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Kosson, David S.; Powers, Charles W.; Jewett, Stephen; Friedlander, Barry; Chenelot, Heloise; Volz, Conrad D.; Jeitner, Christian

2006-01-01

Levels of radionuclides in seven species of marine brown algae and Ulva were determined to establish a baseline for the Northern Pacific Ocean/Bering Sea (Aleutian Islands). There were differences in levels among algal species and locations (Amchitka Island vs Kiska Island). No values were above the minimum detectable activity (MDA) level for 137 Cs, 129 I, 6 Co, 152 Eu, 9 Sr, and 99 Tc. There were interspecific differences in some radionuclides: Ulva lactuca (=Ulva fenestrata) had the highest levels of 241 Am, Alaria fistulosa had the highest levels of 239,24 Pu, and Fucus distichus (=Fucus gardneri) had the highest levels of 234 U, 235 U, and 238 U. However, levels of all radionuclides were generally low and near the MDA for all isotopes. Although Amchitka Island had higher levels of 239,24 Pu than Kiska, the differences were very small and not significant biologically. The data indicate that algae can be useful bioindicators of actinides because they accumulate them at very low environmental levels, allowing them to provide early warning of any potential seepage of radionuclides into the marine environment. Further, the data indicate that some species (the intertidal Fucus) are better accumulators than others, and these should be used as bioindicators in future monitoring schemes

The global pyrogenic carbon cycle and its impact on the level of atmospheric CO2 over past and future centuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Matthews, H Damon

2017-08-01

The incomplete combustion of vegetation and dead organic matter by landscape fires creates recalcitrant pyrogenic carbon (PyC), which could be consequential for the global carbon budget if changes in fire regime, climate, and atmospheric CO 2 were to substantially affect gains and losses of PyC on land and in oceans. Here, we included global PyC cycling in a coupled climate-carbon model to assess the role of PyC in historical and future simulations, accounting for uncertainties through five sets of parameter estimates. We obtained year-2000 global stocks of (Central estimate, likely uncertainty range in parentheses) 86 (11-154), 47 (2-64), and 1129 (90-5892) Pg C for terrestrial residual PyC (RPyC), marine dissolved PyC, and marine particulate PyC, respectively. PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO 2 only slightly between 1751 and 2000 (by 0.8 Pg C for the Central estimate) as PyC-related fluxes changed little over the period. For 2000 to 2300, we combined Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 with stable or continuously increasing future fire frequencies. For the increasing future fire regime, the production of new RPyC generally outpaced the warming-induced accelerated loss of existing RPyC, so that PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO 2 between 2000 and 2300 for most estimates (by 4-8 Pg C for Central). For the stable fire regime, however, PyC cycling usually increased atmospheric CO 2 (by 1-9 Pg C for Central), and only the most extreme choice of parameters maximizing PyC production and minimizing PyC decomposition led to atmospheric CO 2 decreases under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 (by 5-8 Pg C). Our results suggest that PyC cycling will likely reduce the future increase in atmospheric CO 2 if landscape fires become much more frequent; however, in the absence of a substantial increase in fire frequency, PyC cycling might contribute to, rather than mitigate, the future increase in atmospheric CO 2 . © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Carbon capture and storage-Investment strategies for the future?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rammerstorfer, Margarethe; Eisl, Roland

2011-01-01

The following article deals with real options modeling for investing into carbon capture and storage technologies. Herein, we derive two separate models. The first model incorporates a constant convenience yield and dividend for the investment project. In the second model, the convenience yield is allowed to follow a mean reverting process which seems to be more realistic, but also increases the model's complexity. Both frameworks are to be solved numerically. Therefore, we calibrate our model with respect to empirical data and provide insights into the models' sensitivity toward the chosen parameter values. We found that given the recently observable prices for carbon dioxide, an investment into C O2-storage facilities is not profitable. - Highlights: → Real options modeling for investing into carbon capture and storage technologies. → Given the recently observable prices for carbon dioxide, an investment into CO 2 -storage facilities is not profitable. → Investment decision is mainly affected by risk free rate and volatility.

Potential remobilization of belowground permafrost carbon under future global warming

Science.gov (United States)

P. Kuhry; E. Dorrepaal; G. Hugelius; E.A.G. Schuur; C. Tarnocai

2010-01-01

Research on permafrost carbon has dramatically increased in the past few years. A new estimate of 1672 Pg C of belowground organic carbon in the northern circumpolar permafrost region more than doubles the previous value and highlights the potential role of permafrost carbon in the Earth System. Uncertainties in this new estimate remain due to relatively few available...

Carbon Standards and Carbon Labelling: An Emerging Trade Concern

OpenAIRE

Nitya Nanda; Rajan Sudesh Ratna

2010-01-01

The current debate on climate change and its linkages to trade is rapidly gaining global attention. Thus it is reasonable to expect that the focus on carbon leakage and border tax adjustment will only intensify in the future. Carbon leakage is said to happen when production of carbon intensive products migrates from countries which have measures to reduce emissions to countries where there are no such measures. Therefore, border tax adjustment is suggested when carbon intensive products are i...

Livestock and human use of land: Productivity trends and dietary choices as drivers of future land and carbon dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Humpenöder, Florian; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Stevanović, Miodrag

2017-12-01

Land use change has been the primary driving force of human alteration of terrestrial ecosystems. With 80% of agricultural land dedicated to livestock production, the sector is an important lever to attenuate land requirements for food production and carbon emissions from land use change. In this study, we quantify impacts of changing human diets and livestock productivity on land dynamics and depletion of carbon stored in vegetation, litter and soils. Across all investigated productivity pathways, lower consumption of livestock products can substantially reduce deforestation (47-55%) and cumulative carbon losses (34-57%). On the supply side, already minor productivity growth in extensive livestock production systems leads to substantial CO2 emission abatement, but the emission saving potential of productivity gains in intensive systems is limited, also involving trade-offs with soil carbon stocks. If accounting for uncertainties related to future trade restrictions, crop yields and pasture productivity, the range of projected carbon savings from changing diets increases to 23-78%. Highest abatement of carbon emissions (63-78%) can be achieved if reduced consumption of animal-based products is combined with sustained investments into productivity increases in plant production. Our analysis emphasizes the importance to integrate demand- and supply-side oriented mitigation strategies and to combine efforts in the crop and livestock sector to enable synergies for climate protection.

Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Simulated Case for China’s Wheat System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dengpan Xiao

2018-04-01

Full Text Available With regard to global climate change due to increasing concentration in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2, it is important to examine its potential impact on crop development and production. We used statistically-downscaled climate data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM–Wheat model to simulate the impact of future climate change on wheat production. Two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations during two different future periods (2031–2060 referred to as 40S and 2071–2100 referred to as 80S. Relative to the baseline period (1981–2010, the trends in mean daily temperature and radiation significantly increased across all stations under the future scenarios. Furthermore, the trends in precipitation increased under future climate scenarios. Due to climate change, the trend in wheat phenology significantly advanced. The early flowering and maturity dates shortened both the vegetative growth stage (VGP and the whole growth period (WGP. As the advance in the days of maturity was more than that in flowering, the length of the reproductive growth stage (RGP of spring wheat was shortened. However, as the advance in the date of maturity was less than that of flowering, the RGP of winter wheat was extended. When the increase in CO2 concentration under future climate scenarios was not considered, the trend in change in wheat production for the baseline declined. In contrast, under increased CO2 concentration, the trend in wheat yield increased for most of the stations (except for Nangong station under future climatic conditions. Winter wheat and spring wheat evapotranspiration (ET decreased across all stations under the two future climate scenarios. As wheat yield increased with decreasing water consumption (as ET under the future climatic conditions, water use efficiency (WUE significantly improved in the future period.

Graphitization in Carbon MEMS and Carbon NEMS

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Swati

Carbon MEMS (CMEMS) and Carbon NEMS (CNEMS) are an emerging class of miniaturized devices. Due to the numerous advantages such as scalable manufacturing processes, inexpensive and readily available precursor polymer materials, tunable surface properties and biocompatibility, carbon has become a preferred material for a wide variety of future sensing applications. Single suspended carbon nanowires (CNWs) integrated on CMEMS structures fabricated by electrospinning of SU8 photoresist on photolithographially patterned SU8 followed by pyrolysis are utilized for understanding the graphitization process in micro and nano carbon materials. These monolithic CNW-CMEMS structures enable the fabrication of very high aspect ratio CNWs of predefined length. The CNWs thus fabricated display core---shell structures having a graphitic shell with a glassy carbon core. The electrical conductivity of these CNWs is increased by about 100% compared to glassy carbon as a result of enhanced graphitization. We explore various tunable fabrication and pyrolysis parameters to improve graphitization in the resulting CNWs. We also suggest gas-sensing application of the thus fabricated single suspended CNW-CMEMS devices by using the CNW as a nano-hotplate for local chemical vapor deposition. In this thesis we also report on results from an optimization study of SU8 photoresist derived carbon electrodes. These electrodes were applied to the simultaneous detection of traces of Cd(II) and Pb(II) through anodic stripping voltammetry and detection limits as low as 0.7 and 0.8 microgL-1 were achieved. To further improve upon the electrochemical behavior of the carbon electrodes we elucidate a modified pyrolysis technique featuring an ultra-fast temperature ramp for obtaining bubbled porous carbon from lithographically patterned SU8. We conclude this dissertation by suggesting the possible future works on enhancing graphitization as well as on electrochemical applications

Global Carbon Budget 2016

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Sitch, Stephen; Ivar Korsbakken, Jan; Peters, Glen P.; Manning, Andrew C.; Boden, Thomas A.; Tans, Pieter P.; Houghton, Richard A.; Keeling, Ralph F.; Alin, Simone; Andrews, Oliver D.; Anthoni, Peter; Barbero, Leticia; Bopp, Laurent; Chevallier, Frédéric; Chini, Louise P.; Ciais, Philippe; Currie, Kim; Delire, Christine; Doney, Scott C.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gkritzalis, Thanos; Harris, Ian A; Hauck, Judith; Haverd, Vanessa; Hoppema, Mario; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Jain, Atul K.; Kato, Etsushi; Körtzinger, Arne; Landschützer, Peter; Lefèvre, Nathalie; Lenton, Andrew; Lienert, Sebastian; Lombardozzi, Danica; Melton, Joe R.; Metzl, Nicolas; Millero, Frank; Monteiro, Pedro M S; Munro, David R.; Nabel, Julia E M S; Nakaoka, Shin Ichiro; O'Brien, Kevin; Olsen, Are; Omar, Abdirahman M.; Ono, Tsuneo; Pierrot, Denis; Poulter, Benjamin; Rödenbeck, Christian; Salisbury, Joe; Schuster, Ute; Schwinger, Jörg; Séférian, Roland; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Sutton, Adrienne J.; Takahashi, Taro; Tian, Hanqin; Tilbrook, Bronte; Van Der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.; Van Der Werf, Guido R.; Viovy, Nicolas; Walker, Anthony P.; Wiltshire, Andrew J.; Zaehle, Sönke

2016-01-01

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere-the "global carbon budget"-is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future

Using the baseline environmental management report (BEMR) to examine alternate program scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristofferson, K.

1995-01-01

The US Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) released the first Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR) in March, 1995. The Congressionally-mandated report provides life-cycle cost estimates, tentative schedules, and projected activities necessary to complete DOE's Environmental Management Program. This ''base case'' estimate is based on current program assumptions and the most likely set of activities. However, since the future course of the Environmental Management Program depends upon a number of fundamental technical and policy choices, alternate program scenarios were developed. These alternate cases show the potential cost impacts of changing assumptions in four key areas: future land use, program funding and scheduling, technology development, and waste management configurations. Several cost and program evaluation tools were developed to support the analysis of these alternate cases. The objective of this paper is to describe the analytical tool kit developed to support the development of the 1995 Baseline Report and to discuss the application of these tools to evaluate alternate program scenarios

Predicting Coronary Artery Aneurysms in Kawasaki Disease at a North American Center: An Assessment of Baseline z Scores.

Science.gov (United States)

Son, Mary Beth F; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Kim, Susan; Tang, Alexander; Dedeoglu, Fatma; Fulton, David R; Lo, Mindy S; Baker, Annette L; Sundel, Robert P; Newburger, Jane W

2017-05-31

Accurate risk prediction of coronary artery aneurysms (CAAs) in North American children with Kawasaki disease remains a clinical challenge. We sought to determine the predictive utility of baseline coronary dimensions adjusted for body surface area ( z scores) for future CAAs in Kawasaki disease and explored the extent to which addition of established Japanese risk scores to baseline coronary artery z scores improved discrimination for CAA development. We explored the relationships of CAA with baseline z scores; with Kobayashi, Sano, Egami, and Harada risk scores; and with the combination of baseline z scores and risk scores. We defined CAA as a maximum z score (zMax) ≥2.5 of the left anterior descending or right coronary artery at 4 to 8 weeks of illness. Of 261 patients, 77 patients (29%) had a baseline zMax ≥2.0. CAAs occurred in 15 patients (6%). CAAs were strongly associated with baseline zMax ≥2.0 versus Baseline zMax ≥2.0 had a C statistic of 0.77, good sensitivity (80%), and excellent negative predictive value (98%). None of the risk scores alone had adequate discrimination. When high-risk status per the Japanese risk scores was added to models containing baseline zMax ≥2.0, none were significantly better than baseline zMax ≥2.0 alone. In a North American center, baseline zMax ≥2.0 in children with Kawasaki disease demonstrated high predictive utility for later development of CAA. Future studies should validate the utility of our findings. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Groundwater chemical baseline values to assess the Recovery Plan in the Matanza-Riachuelo River basin, Argentina.

Science.gov (United States)

Zabala, M E; Martínez, S; Manzano, M; Vives, L

2016-01-15

The two most exploited aquifers in the Matanza-Riachuelo River basin are being monitored in the framework of the Integrated Environmental Sanitation Plan that implements the Basin Authority, Autoridad de Cuenca Matanza Riachuelo. In this context, this work identifies the groundwater chemical types and the natural processes behind them; determines spatial and temporal changes; establishes ranges of variation for chemical components, and proposes concentration values for the upper limit of the natural chemical background. A total of 1007 samples from three aquifer-layers (Upper Aquifer, top and bottom of Puelche Aquifer) have been studied. As concrete guidelines for practical determination of baseline values are not available in the region, the methodology used follows the proposals of European projects which assessed European water directives. The groundwater composition is very stable in terms of both chemical facies and mineralization degree, and the changes observed in the dry and wet periods analysed are subtle in general. Most of the groundwater is Na-HCO3 type, except a few samples that are Ca-HCO3, Na-ClSO4 and Na-Cl types. The Ca-HCO3 waters are the result of calcium carbonate dissolution, Na-HCO3 waters result from cation exchange and carbonate dissolution, while in the Na-ClSO4 and Na-Cl waters, mixing with connate and with encroached old marine water from the underlying and overlying sediments are the most relevant processes. The proposed values for the upper limit of the natural background consider the influence of geology and Holocene marine ingressions in the baseline of coastal groundwater. This study allowed to know the initial chemical conditions of the groundwater system of the Matanza-Riachuelo River basin and to establish the reference from which Basin Authority can start to evaluate trends and monitor the recovery plan. At the same time, it sets a precedent for future studies in the region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risky future for Mediterranean forests unless they undergo extreme carbon fertilization.

Science.gov (United States)

Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo; Nicault, Antoine; Battipaglia, Giovanna; Dorado-Liñán, Isabel; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Ribas, Montserrat; Guiot, Joel

2017-07-01

Forest performance is challenged by climate change but higher atmospheric [CO 2 ] (c a ) could help trees mitigate the negative effect of enhanced water stress. Forest projections using data assimilation with mechanistic models are a valuable tool to assess forest performance. Firstly, we used dendrochronological data from 12 Mediterranean tree species (six conifers and six broadleaves) to calibrate a process-based vegetation model at 77 sites. Secondly, we conducted simulations of gross primary production (GPP) and radial growth using an ensemble of climate projections for the period 2010-2100 for the high-emission RCP8.5 and low-emission RCP2.6 scenarios. GPP and growth projections were simulated using climatic data from the two RCPs combined with (i) expected c a ; (ii) constant c a  = 390 ppm, to test a purely climate-driven performance excluding compensation from carbon fertilization. The model accurately mimicked the growth trends since the 1950s when, despite increasing c a , enhanced evaporative demands precluded a global net positive effect on growth. Modeled annual growth and GPP showed similar long-term trends. Under RCP2.6 (i.e., temperatures below +2 °C with respect to preindustrial values), the forests showed resistance to future climate (as expressed by non-negative trends in growth and GPP) except for some coniferous sites. Using exponentially growing c a and climate as from RCP8.5, carbon fertilization overrode the negative effect of the highly constraining climatic conditions under that scenario. This effect was particularly evident above 500 ppm (which is already over +2 °C), which seems unrealistic and likely reflects model miss-performance at high c a above the calibration range. Thus, forest projections under RCP8.5 preventing carbon fertilization displayed very negative forest performance at the regional scale. This suggests that most of western Mediterranean forests would successfully acclimate to the coldest climate change scenario

On Track to Become a Low Carbon Future City? First Findings of the Integrated Status Quo and Trends Assessment of the Pilot City of Wuxi in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Vallentin

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The Low Carbon Future Cities (LCFC project aims at facing a three dimensional challenge by developing an integrated city roadmap balancing: low carbon development, gains in resource efficiency and adaptation to climate change. The paper gives an overview of the first outcomes of the analysis of the status quo and assessment of the most likely developments regarding GHG emissions, climate impacts and resource use in Wuxi—the Chinese pilot city for the LCFC project. As a first step, a detailed emission inventory following the IPCC guidelines for Wuxi has been carried out. In a second step, the future development of energy demand and related CO2 emissions in 2050 were simulated in a current policy scenario (CPS. In parallel, selected aspects of material and water flows for the energy and the building sector were analyzed and modeled. In addition, recent and future climate impacts and vulnerability were investigated. Based on these findings, nine key sectors with high relevance to the three dimensions could be identified. Although Wuxi’s government has started a path to implement a low carbon plan, the first results show that, for the shift towards a sustainable low carbon development, more ambitious steps need to be taken in order to overcome the challenges faced.

Effect of computer game playing on baseline laparoscopic simulator skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Halvorsen, Fredrik H; Cvancarova, Milada; Fosse, Erik; Mjåland, Odd

2013-08-01

Studies examining the possible association between computer game playing and laparoscopic performance in general have yielded conflicting results and neither has a relationship between computer game playing and baseline performance on laparoscopic simulators been established. The aim of this study was to examine the possible association between previous and present computer game playing and baseline performance on a virtual reality laparoscopic performance in a sample of potential future medical students. The participating students completed a questionnaire covering the weekly amount and type of computer game playing activity during the previous year and 3 years ago. They then performed 2 repetitions of 2 tasks ("gallbladder dissection" and "traverse tube") on a virtual reality laparoscopic simulator. Performance on the simulator were then analyzed for association to their computer game experience. Local high school, Norway. Forty-eight students from 2 high school classes volunteered to participate in the study. No association between prior and present computer game playing and baseline performance was found. The results were similar both for prior and present action game playing and prior and present computer game playing in general. Our results indicate that prior and present computer game playing may not affect baseline performance in a virtual reality simulator.

Distribution of planktonic biogenic carbonate organisms in the Southern Ocean south of Australia: a baseline for ocean acidification impact assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Trull, Thomas W.; Passmore, Abraham; Davies, Diana M.; Smit, Tim; Berry, Kate; Tilbrook, Bronte

2018-01-01

The Southern Ocean provides a vital service by absorbing about one-sixth of humankind's annual emissions of CO2. This comes with a cost - an increase in ocean acidity that is expected to have negative impacts on ocean ecosystems. The reduced ability of phytoplankton and zooplankton to precipitate carbonate shells is a clearly identified risk. The impact depends on the significance of these organisms in Southern Ocean ecosystems, but there is very little information on their abundance or distribution. To quantify their presence, we used coulometric measurement of particulate inorganic carbonate (PIC) on particles filtered from surface seawater into two size fractions: 50-1000 µm to capture foraminifera (the most important biogenic carbonate-forming zooplankton) and 1-50 µm to capture coccolithophores (the most important biogenic carbonate-forming phytoplankton). Ancillary measurements of biogenic silica (BSi) and particulate organic carbon (POC) provided context, as estimates of the biomass of diatoms (the highest biomass phytoplankton in polar waters) and total microbial biomass, respectively. Results for nine transects from Australia to Antarctica in 2008-2015 showed low levels of PIC compared to Northern Hemisphere polar waters. Coccolithophores slightly exceeded the biomass of diatoms in subantarctic waters, but their abundance decreased more than 30-fold poleward, while diatom abundances increased, so that on a molar basis PIC was only 1 % of BSi in Antarctic waters. This limited importance of coccolithophores in the Southern Ocean is further emphasized in terms of their associated POC, representing less than 1 % of total POC in Antarctic waters and less than 10 % in subantarctic waters. NASA satellite ocean-colour-based PIC estimates were in reasonable agreement with the shipboard results in subantarctic waters but greatly overestimated PIC in Antarctic waters. Contrastingly, the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) shows coccolithophores as overly

Distribution of planktonic biogenic carbonate organisms in the Southern Ocean south of Australia: a baseline for ocean acidification impact assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. W. Trull

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The Southern Ocean provides a vital service by absorbing about one-sixth of humankind's annual emissions of CO2. This comes with a cost – an increase in ocean acidity that is expected to have negative impacts on ocean ecosystems. The reduced ability of phytoplankton and zooplankton to precipitate carbonate shells is a clearly identified risk. The impact depends on the significance of these organisms in Southern Ocean ecosystems, but there is very little information on their abundance or distribution. To quantify their presence, we used coulometric measurement of particulate inorganic carbonate (PIC on particles filtered from surface seawater into two size fractions: 50–1000 µm to capture foraminifera (the most important biogenic carbonate-forming zooplankton and 1–50 µm to capture coccolithophores (the most important biogenic carbonate-forming phytoplankton. Ancillary measurements of biogenic silica (BSi and particulate organic carbon (POC provided context, as estimates of the biomass of diatoms (the highest biomass phytoplankton in polar waters and total microbial biomass, respectively. Results for nine transects from Australia to Antarctica in 2008–2015 showed low levels of PIC compared to Northern Hemisphere polar waters. Coccolithophores slightly exceeded the biomass of diatoms in subantarctic waters, but their abundance decreased more than 30-fold poleward, while diatom abundances increased, so that on a molar basis PIC was only 1 % of BSi in Antarctic waters. This limited importance of coccolithophores in the Southern Ocean is further emphasized in terms of their associated POC, representing less than 1 % of total POC in Antarctic waters and less than 10 % in subantarctic waters. NASA satellite ocean-colour-based PIC estimates were in reasonable agreement with the shipboard results in subantarctic waters but greatly overestimated PIC in Antarctic waters. Contrastingly, the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM shows

Litter decay controlled by temperature, not soil properties, affecting future soil carbon.

Science.gov (United States)

Gregorich, Edward G; Janzen, Henry; Ellert, Benjamin H; Helgason, Bobbi L; Qian, Budong; Zebarth, Bernie J; Angers, Denis A; Beyaert, Ronald P; Drury, Craig F; Duguid, Scott D; May, William E; McConkey, Brian G; Dyck, Miles F

2017-04-01

Widespread global changes, including rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, climate warming and loss of biodiversity, are predicted for this century; all of these will affect terrestrial ecosystem processes like plant litter decomposition. Conversely, increased plant litter decomposition can have potential carbon-cycle feedbacks on atmospheric CO 2 levels, climate warming and biodiversity. But predicting litter decomposition is difficult because of many interacting factors related to the chemical, physical and biological properties of soil, as well as to climate and agricultural management practices. We applied 13 C-labelled plant litter to soil at ten sites spanning a 3500-km transect across the agricultural regions of Canada and measured its decomposition over five years. Despite large differences in soil type and climatic conditions, we found that the kinetics of litter decomposition were similar once the effect of temperature had been removed, indicating no measurable effect of soil properties. A two-pool exponential decay model expressing undecomposed carbon simply as a function of thermal time accurately described kinetics of decomposition. (R 2  = 0.94; RMSE = 0.0508). Soil properties such as texture, cation exchange capacity, pH and moisture, although very different among sites, had minimal discernible influence on decomposition kinetics. Using this kinetic model under different climate change scenarios, we projected that the time required to decompose 50% of the litter (i.e. the labile fractions) would be reduced by 1-4 months, whereas time required to decompose 90% of the litter (including recalcitrant fractions) would be reduced by 1 year in cooler sites to as much as 2 years in warmer sites. These findings confirm quantitatively the sensitivity of litter decomposition to temperature increases and demonstrate how climate change may constrain future soil carbon storage, an effect apparently not influenced by soil properties. © 2016 Her Majesty

Terrestrial carbon losses from mountaintop coal mining offset regional forest carbon sequestration in the 21st century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elliott Campbell, J; Fox, James F; Acton, Peter M

2012-01-01

Studies that quantify the spatial and temporal variability of carbon sources and sinks provide process-level information for the prediction of future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide as well as verification of current emission agreements. Assessments of carbon sources and sinks for North America that compare top-down atmospheric constraints with bottom-up inventories find particularly large carbon sinks in the southeastern US. However, this southeastern US sink may be impacted by extreme land-use disturbance events due to mountaintop coal mining (MCM). Here we apply ecosystem modeling and field experiment data to quantify the potential impact of future mountaintop coal mining on the carbon budget of the southern Appalachian forest region. For projections based on historical mining rates, grassland reclamation, and the continued regrowth of un-mined forests, we find that the southern Appalachian forests switch from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source by year 2025–33 with a 30%–35% loss in terrestrial carbon stocks relative to a scenario with no future mining by the year 2100. Alternatively, scenarios of forest sequestration due to the effect of CO 2 fertilization result in a 15%–24% loss in terrestrial carbon stocks by the year 2100 for mining scenarios relative to scenarios with no future mining. These results suggest that while power plant stack emissions are the dominant life-cycle stage in coal-fired electricity, accounting for mountaintop coal mining in bottom-up inventories may be a critical component of regional carbon budgets. (letter)

The carbon balance and greenhouse effects of the Finnish forest sector at present, in the past and future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pingoud, K [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

1997-12-31

In this study the greenhouse impact of the total Finnish forest sector was considered, which means that the estimated emissions and sink effects from exported forest products were also included. The forest biomass is and seems to be in the next decades the most important factor in the carbon balance of the total forest sector. The development alternatives of forest industries and waste management practices has still a remarkable influence on the greenhouse impact of the Finnish forest sector. The waste management practices in the future has an important influence on the emissions but the exact net greenhouse impact of the landfills is still uncertain. However, the methane emissions from existing landfills can be reduced essentially by gas recovery. Increased incineration and energy recovery of wood waste (and replacing fossil fuel use by it) is also a future alternative for reducing the greenhouse effects in the forest sector. The sequestration of carbon by increasing the storages of long-lived wood products in use meets difficulties in practice because of all the material losses in wood using chain and the natural removal of old wood products. An important advantage of mechanical wood processing and the succeeding refinement chain is still their relative low use of energy

The carbon balance and greenhouse effects of the Finnish forest sector at present, in the past and future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pingoud, K. [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

1996-12-31

In this study the greenhouse impact of the total Finnish forest sector was considered, which means that the estimated emissions and sink effects from exported forest products were also included. The forest biomass is and seems to be in the next decades the most important factor in the carbon balance of the total forest sector. The development alternatives of forest industries and waste management practices has still a remarkable influence on the greenhouse impact of the Finnish forest sector. The waste management practices in the future has an important influence on the emissions but the exact net greenhouse impact of the landfills is still uncertain. However, the methane emissions from existing landfills can be reduced essentially by gas recovery. Increased incineration and energy recovery of wood waste (and replacing fossil fuel use by it) is also a future alternative for reducing the greenhouse effects in the forest sector. The sequestration of carbon by increasing the storages of long-lived wood products in use meets difficulties in practice because of all the material losses in wood using chain and the natural removal of old wood products. An important advantage of mechanical wood processing and the succeeding refinement chain is still their relative low use of energy

Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajesh, N.; Kapshe, M.; Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Rana, A.

2003-01-01

In the coming years India faces great challenges in energy and environment. The path of development chosen by India, upon which lies the future growth of energy and emission trajectories, would be greatly influenced by technological developments both within and outside the country, economic cooperation between countries, and global cooperation in limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This paper discusses the integrated modeling system used for developing and analyzing the long-term trajectories and presents results for the scenarios developed. In the context of ongoing market reforms two scenarios - accelerated and decelerated reforms - are developed depicting fast and slow progress in energy sector reforms compared to expectations in the baseline scenario. Accelerated market reforms would spur improvements in technological efficiencies. Reforms would lower investment risks in India, thereby stimulating increased levels of foreign direct investment. On the other hand in decelerated reform scenario economic growth is lower than that in the base case, there is low access to capital, and technological improvements lag behind those in the base case. In another scenario we assume specific policy interventions for penetration of renewable technologies over the baseline scenario, for promotion and accelerated deployment of renewable energy technologies over and above the baseline assumptions. A scenario with carbon (c) constraints has also been developed and the results discussed

1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Mengis, Nadine; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Jalbert, Jonathan; Matthews, H Damon

2018-04-11

Estimates of the 1.5 °C carbon budget vary widely among recent studies, emphasizing the need to better understand and quantify key sources of uncertainty. Here we quantify the impact of carbon cycle uncertainty and non-CO 2 forcing on the 1.5 °C carbon budget in the context of a prescribed 1.5 °C temperature stabilization scenario. We use Bayes theorem to weight members of a perturbed parameter ensemble with varying land and ocean carbon uptake, to derive an estimate for the fossil fuel (FF) carbon budget of 469 PgC since 1850, with a 95% likelihood range of (411,528) PgC. CO 2 emissions from land-use change (LUC) add about 230 PgC. Our best estimate of the total (FF + LUC) carbon budget for 1.5 °C is therefore 699 PgC, which corresponds to about 11 years of current emissions. Non-CO 2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions represent equivalent cumulative CO 2 emissions of about 510 PgC and -180 PgC for 1.5 °C, respectively. The increased LUC, high non-CO 2 emissions and decreased aerosols in our scenario, cause the long-term FF carbon budget to decrease following temperature stabilization. In this scenario, negative emissions would be required to compensate not only for the increasing non-CO 2 climate forcing, but also for the declining natural carbon sinks.

Impact of future nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide emissions on the stratospheric ozone layer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stolarski, Richard S; Waugh, Darryn W; Douglass, Anne R; Oman, Luke D

2015-01-01

The atmospheric levels of human-produced chlorocarbons and bromocarbons are projected to make only small contributions to ozone depletion by 2100. Increases in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) will become increasingly important in determining the future of the ozone layer. N 2 O increases lead to increased production of nitrogen oxides (NO x ), contributing to ozone depletion. CO 2 increases cool the stratosphere and affect ozone levels in several ways. Cooling decreases the rate of many photochemical reactions, thus slowing ozone loss rates. Cooling also increases the chemical destruction of nitrogen oxides, thereby moderating the effect of increased N 2 O on ozone depletion. The stratospheric ozone level projected for the end of this century therefore depends on future emissions of both CO 2 and N 2 O. We use a two-dimensional chemical transport model to explore a wide range of values for the boundary conditions for CO 2 and N 2 O, and find that all of the current scenarios for growth of greenhouse gases project the global average ozone to be larger in 2100 than in 1960. (letter)

Quantifying Trophic Interactions and Carbon Flow in Louisiana Salt Marshes Using Multiple Biomarkers

Science.gov (United States)

Polito, M. J.; Lopez-Duarte, P. C.; Olin, J.; Johnson, J. J.; Able, K.; Martin, C. W.; Fodrie, J.; Hooper-Bui, L. M.; Taylor, S.; Stouffer, P.; Roberts, B. J.; Rabalais, N. N.; Jensen, O.

2017-12-01

Salt marshes are critical habitats for many species in the northern Gulf of Mexico. However, given their complex nature, quantifying trophic linkages and the flow of carbon through salt marsh food webs is challenging. This gap in our understanding of food web structure and function limits our ability to evaluate the impacts of natural and anthropogenic stressors on salt marsh ecosystems. For example, 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill had the potential to alter trophic and energy pathways. Even so, our ability to evaluate its effects on Louisiana salt marsh food webs was limited by a poor basis for comparison of the pre-spill baseline food web. To be better equipped to measure significant alterations in salt marsh ecosystems in the future, we quantified trophic interactions at two marsh sites in Barataria Bay, LA in May and October of 2015. Trophic structure and carbon flow across 52 species of saltmarsh primary producers and consumers were examined through a combination of three approaches: bulk tissue stable isotope analysis (δ13C, δ15N, δ34S), dietary fatty acid analysis (FAA), and compound-specific stable isotope analysis of essential amino acids (δ13C EAA). Bulk stable isotope analysis indicated similar trophic diversity between sites and seasons with the use of aquatic resources increasing concomitantly with trophic level. FAA and δ13C EAA biomarkers revealed that marsh organisms were largely divided into two groups: those that primarily derive carbon from terrestrial C4 grasses, and those that predominately derive carbon from a combination of phytoplankton and benthic microalgal sources. Differences in trophic structure and carbon flow were minimal between seasons and sites that were variably impacted by the DWH spill. These data on salt marsh ecosystem structure will be useful to inform future injury assessments and restoration initiatives.

Baseline demographic, anthropometric, psychosocial, and behavioral characteristics of rural, Southern women in early pregnacy

Science.gov (United States)

Beginning life in a healthy uterine environment is essential for future well-being, particularly as it relates to chronic disease risk. Baseline (early pregnancy) demographic, anthropometric (height and weight), psychosocial (depression and perceived stress), and behavioral (diet and exercise) char...

Logistics Operations Management Center: Maintenance Support Baseline (LOMC-MSB)

Science.gov (United States)

Kurrus, R.; Stump, F.

1995-01-01

The Logistics Operations Management Center Maintenance Support Baseline is defined. A historical record of systems, applied to and deleted from, designs in support of future management and/or technical analysis is provided. All Flight elements, Ground Support Equipment, Facility Systems and Equipment and Test Support Equipment for which LOMC has responsibilities at Kennedy Space Center and other locations are listed. International Space Station Alpha Program documentation is supplemented. The responsibility of the Space Station Launch Site Support Office is established.

Our energy future - creating a low carbon economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

This White Paper sets out a long-term framework for addressing the threat of climate change and reduced UK oil, gas, and coal production. The challenges facing the UK are examined covering the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, rising temperatures, droughts and floods, the economic impact of cutting emissions, the shift from energy exporter to energy importer, and the need to update the UK's energy infrastructure. The goals of the new energy policy, the fuel mix, and stimulation of the growth in renewable energies are considered. The importance of a carbon emission trading scheme, maintaining the reliability of energy supplies, promotion of competitive energy markets, and ensuring every home is adequately and affordably heated is discussed

Vegetation Structure and Carbon Stocks of Two Protected Areas within the South-Sudanian Savannas of Burkina Faso

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Qasim

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Savannas and adjacent vegetation types like gallery forests are highly valuable ecosystems contributing to several ecosystem services including carbon budgeting. Financial mechanisms such as REDD+ (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation can provide an opportunity for developing countries to alleviate poverty through conservation of its forestry resources. However, for availing such opportunities carbon stock assessments are essential. Therefore, a research study for this purpose was conducted at two protected areas (Nazinga Game Ranch and Bontioli Nature Reserve in Burkina Faso. Similarly, analysis of various vegetation parameters was also conducted to understand the overall vegetation structure of these two protected areas. For estimating above ground biomass, existing allometric equations for dry tropical woody vegetation types were used. Compositional structure was described by applying tree species and family importance indices. The results show that both sites collectively contain a mean carbon stock of 3.41 ± 4.98 Mg·C·ha−1. Among different savanna vegetation types, gallery forests recorded the highest mean carbon stock of 9.38 ± 6.90 Mg·C·ha−1. This study was an attempt at addressing the knowledge gap particularly on carbon stocks of protected savannas—it can serve as a baseline for carbon stocks for future initiatives such as REDD+ within these areas.

In hot water: the future of Australia's coastal and marine ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richardson, Anthony J; Poloczanska, Elvira

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: Marine ecosystems are extremely important economically and ecologically to Australia in terms of tourism, coastal defence, resources, and ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and waste disposal. Australia is also a globally important repository of biodiversity. Here we describe the observed and potential future impacts of climate change on Australia's marine diversity. Climate simulations project oceanic warming, an increase in stratification, a strengthening of the Eastern Australian Current, increased ocean acidification, a rise in sea level, and altered storm and rainfall regimes, which taken collectively will fundamentally change marine ecosystems. There has already been widespread bleaching of tropical corals, poleward shifts of temperate fish and plankton populations, and a decline in cold-water giant kelp off Tasmania. Future changes are likely to be even more dramatic and have considerable economic and ecological consequences, especially in 'hot spots' of climate change such as theTasman Sea and the Great Barrier Reef area. Corals are likely to bleach more frequently and decline in abundance in response to both warming and ocean acidification. Planktonic animals with calcium carbonate shells, such as winged pteropod snails and coccolithophorid phytoplankton, are likely to decline as increased ocean acidification impairs their ability to maintain carbonate body structures. The projected high warming off south-east Australia is of particular concern. Marine ecosystems in this region are already stressed by high metal concentrations, sewage pollution, and overfishing, and climate models project that this region will warm more than anywhere else in the Southern Hemisphere this century because of enhanced southerly penetration of the East Australian Current. Venomous jellyfish and harmful algal blooms, which are major threats to human health, will potentially extend further south and occur more frequently. Temperate species

Increased Visceral Adipose Tissue Is an Independent Predictor for Future Development of Atherogenic Dyslipidemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Hwang, You-Cheol; Fujimoto, Wilfred Y; Hayashi, Tomoshige; Kahn, Steven E; Leonetti, Donna L; Boyko, Edward J

2016-02-01

Atherogenic dyslipidemia is frequently observed in persons with a greater amount of visceral adipose tissue (VAT). However, it is still uncertain whether VAT is independently associated with the future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia. The aim of this study was to determine whether baseline and changes in VAT and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) are associated with future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia independent of baseline lipid levels and standard anthropometric indices. Community-based prospective cohort study with 5 years of follow-up. A total of 452 Japanese Americans (240 men, 212 women), aged 34-75 years were assessed at baseline and after 5 years of follow-up. Abdominal fat areas were measured by computed tomography. Atherogenic dyslipidemia was defined as one or more abnormalities in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, or non-HDL cholesterol levels. Baseline VAT and change in VAT over 5 years were independently associated with log-transformed HDL cholesterol, log-transformed triglyceride, and non-HDL cholesterol after 5 years (standardized β = -0.126, 0.277, and 0.066 for baseline VAT, respectively, and -0.095, 0.223, and 0.090 for change in VAT, respectively). However, baseline and change in SAT were not associated with any future atherogenic lipid level. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, incremental change in VAT (odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.73 [1.20-2.48]; P = .003), triglycerides (4.01 [1.72-9.33]; P = .001), HDL cholesterol (0.32 [0.18-0.58]; P dyslipidemia independent of age, sex, diastolic blood pressure, homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance, body mass index (BMI), change in BMI, SAT, and baseline atherogenic lipid levels. Baseline and change in VAT were independent predictors for future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia. However, BMI, waist circumference, and SAT were not associated with future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia.

Carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate ocean acidification

Science.gov (United States)

Matear, Richard J.; Lenton, Andrew

2018-03-01

Carbon-climate feedbacks have the potential to significantly impact the future climate by altering atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Zaehle et al. 2010). By modifying the future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the carbon-climate feedbacks will also influence the future ocean acidification trajectory. Here, we use the CO2 emissions scenarios from four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with an Earth system model to project the future trajectories of ocean acidification with the inclusion of carbon-climate feedbacks. We show that simulated carbon-climate feedbacks can significantly impact the onset of undersaturated aragonite conditions in the Southern and Arctic oceans, the suitable habitat for tropical coral and the deepwater saturation states. Under the high-emissions scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP6), the carbon-climate feedbacks advance the onset of surface water under saturation and the decline in suitable coral reef habitat by a decade or more. The impacts of the carbon-climate feedbacks are most significant for the medium- (RCP4.5) and low-emissions (RCP2.6) scenarios. For the RCP4.5 scenario, by 2100 the carbon-climate feedbacks nearly double the area of surface water undersaturated with respect to aragonite and reduce by 50 % the surface water suitable for coral reefs. For the RCP2.6 scenario, by 2100 the carbon-climate feedbacks reduce the area suitable for coral reefs by 40 % and increase the area of undersaturated surface water by 20 %. The sensitivity of ocean acidification to the carbon-climate feedbacks in the low to medium emission scenarios is important because recent CO2 emission reduction commitments are trying to transition emissions to such a scenario. Our study highlights the need to better characterise the carbon-climate feedbacks and ensure we do not underestimate the projected ocean acidification.

How costly are carbon offsets : a meta-analysis of forest carbon sinks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Kooten, G.C.; Eagle, A.J.; Manley, J.; Smolak, T.M.

2004-01-01

Carbon terrestrial sinks are one of the many proposed mitigation responses to climate change. Carbon sinks are considered to be a low-cost alternative to fuel switching and reduced fossil fuel consumption for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions. This study examined the costs of sequestering carbon in terrestrial ecosystems via forestry activities. A meta-regression analysis was used to determine which factors influence the costs of carbon sequestration via forest activities. Important concerns about how the Kyoto Protocol may be implemented were also addressed. The meta-regression analysis was used to examine 981 estimates from 55 studies on the cost of creating carbon offsets using forestry. Baseline cost estimates are US$46.62 to 260.29 per tC. Tree planting and agroforestry increases costs by more than 200 per cent. Costs are lowest when post-harvest storage of carbon in wood products is considered, or when biomass is substituted for fossil fuels in energy production. The meta-analysis also considered land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) policies that increase the carbon sink functions of terrestrial ecosystems. The main motive for using sinks in the accounting process is that they avoid the use of expensive controls for the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. refs., tabs

Assessing carbon lock-in

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erickson, Peter; Kartha, Sivan; Lazarus, Michael; Tempest, Kevin

2015-01-01

The term ‘carbon lock-in’ refers to the tendency for certain carbon-intensive technological systems to persist over time, ‘locking out’ lower-carbon alternatives, and owing to a combination of linked technical, economic, and institutional factors. These technologies may be costly to build, but relatively inexpensive to operate and, over time, they reinforce political, market, and social factors that make it difficult to move away from, or ‘unlock’ them. As a result, by investing in assets prone to lock-in, planners and investors restrict future flexibility and increase the costs of achieving agreed climate protection goals. Here, we develop a straight-forward approach to assess the speed, strength, and scale of carbon lock-in for major energy-consuming assets in the power, buildings, industry, and transport sectors. We pilot the approach at the global level, finding that carbon lock-in is greatest, globally, for coal power plants, gas power plants, and oil-based vehicles. The approach can be readily applied at the national or regional scale, and may be of particular relevance to policymakers interested in enhancing flexibility in their jurisdictions for deeper emissions cuts in the future, and therefore in limiting the future costs associated with ‘stranded assets’. (letter)

One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

2013-12-01

future climate mitigation strategies. We find substantial effects on key integrated assessment projections including the magnitude of emissions to mitigate, the economic value of ecosystem carbon storage, future land-use patterns, food prices and energy technology.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melaina, M. W.; Heath, G.; Sandor, D.; Steward, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Warner, E.; Webster, K. W.

2013-04-01

Achieving the Department of Energy target of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 depends on transportation-related strategies combining technology innovation, market adoption, and changes in consumer behavior. This study examines expanding low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure to achieve deep GHG emissions reductions, with an emphasis on fuel production facilities and retail components serving light-duty vehicles. Three distinct low-carbon fuel supply scenarios are examined: Portfolio: Successful deployment of a range of advanced vehicle and fuel technologies; Combustion: Market dominance by hybridized internal combustion engine vehicles fueled by advanced biofuels and natural gas; Electrification: Market dominance by electric drive vehicles in the LDV sector, including battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles, that are fueled by low-carbon electricity and hydrogen. A range of possible low-carbon fuel demand outcomes are explored in terms of the scale and scope of infrastructure expansion requirements and evaluated based on fuel costs, energy resource utilization, fuel production infrastructure expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion for LDVs. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored transportation-related strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence.

Integrated life-cycle assessment of electricity-supply scenarios confirms global environmental benefit of low-carbon technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Hertwich, Edgar G; Gibon, Thomas; Bouman, Evert A; Arvesen, Anders; Suh, Sangwon; Heath, Garvin A; Bergesen, Joseph D; Ramirez, Andrea; Vega, Mabel I; Shi, Lei

2015-05-19

Decarbonization of electricity generation can support climate-change mitigation and presents an opportunity to address pollution resulting from fossil-fuel combustion. Generally, renewable technologies require higher initial investments in infrastructure than fossil-based power systems. To assess the tradeoffs of increased up-front emissions and reduced operational emissions, we present, to our knowledge, the first global, integrated life-cycle assessment (LCA) of long-term, wide-scale implementation of electricity generation from renewable sources (i.e., photovoltaic and solar thermal, wind, and hydropower) and of carbon dioxide capture and storage for fossil power generation. We compare emissions causing particulate matter exposure, freshwater ecotoxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and climate change for the climate-change-mitigation (BLUE Map) and business-as-usual (Baseline) scenarios of the International Energy Agency up to 2050. We use a vintage stock model to conduct an LCA of newly installed capacity year-by-year for each region, thus accounting for changes in the energy mix used to manufacture future power plants. Under the Baseline scenario, emissions of air and water pollutants more than double whereas the low-carbon technologies introduced in the BLUE Map scenario allow a doubling of electricity supply while stabilizing or even reducing pollution. Material requirements per unit generation for low-carbon technologies can be higher than for conventional fossil generation: 11-40 times more copper for photovoltaic systems and 6-14 times more iron for wind power plants. However, only two years of current global copper and one year of iron production will suffice to build a low-carbon energy system capable of supplying the world's electricity needs in 2050.

High contributions of sea ice derived carbon in polar bear (Ursus maritimus) tissue.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Thomas A; Galicia, Melissa P; Thiemann, Gregory W; Belt, Simon T; Yurkowski, David J; Dyck, Markus G

2018-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) rely upon Arctic sea ice as a physical habitat. Consequently, conservation assessments of polar bears identify the ongoing reduction in sea ice to represent a significant threat to their survival. However, the additional role of sea ice as a potential, indirect, source of energy to bears has been overlooked. Here we used the highly branched isoprenoid lipid biomarker-based index (H-Print) approach in combination with quantitative fatty acid signature analysis to show that sympagic (sea ice-associated), rather than pelagic, carbon contributions dominated the marine component of polar bear diet (72-100%; 99% CI, n = 55), irrespective of differences in diet composition. The lowest mean estimates of sympagic carbon were found in Baffin Bay bears, which were also exposed to the most rapidly increasing open water season. Therefore, our data illustrate that for future Arctic ecosystems that are likely to be characterised by reduced sea ice cover, polar bears will not only be impacted by a change in their physical habitat, but also potentially in the supply of energy to the ecosystems upon which they depend. This data represents the first quantifiable baseline that is critical for the assessment of likely ongoing changes in energy supply to Arctic predators as we move into an increasingly uncertain future for polar ecosystems.

Arctic carbon cycling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Christensen, Torben R; Rysgaard, SØREN; Bendtsen, JØRGEN; Else, Brent; Glud, Ronnie N; van Huissteden, J.; Parmentier, F.J.W.; Sachs, Torsten; Vonk, J.E.

2017-01-01

The marine Arctic is considered a net carbon sink, with large regional differences in uptake rates. More regional modelling and observational studies are required to reduce the uncertainty among current estimates. Robust projections for how the Arctic Ocean carbon sink may evolve in the future are

Program Baseline Change Control Procedure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-02-01

This procedure establishes the responsibilities and process for approving initial issues of and changes to the technical, cost, and schedule baselines, and selected management documents developed by the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) for the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System. This procedure implements the OCRWM Baseline Management Plan and DOE Order 4700.1, Chg 1. It streamlines the change control process to enhance integration, accountability, and traceability of Level 0 and Level I decisions through standardized Baseline Change Proposal (BCP) forms to be used by the Level 0, 1, 2, and 3 Baseline Change Control Boards (BCCBs) and to be tracked in the OCRWM-wide Configuration Information System (CIS) Database.This procedure applies to all technical, cost, and schedule baselines controlled by the Energy System Acquisition Advisory Board (ESAAB) BCCB (Level 0) and, OCRWM Program Baseline Control Board (PBCCB) (Level 1). All baseline BCPs initiated by Level 2 or lower BCCBs, which require approval from ESAAB or PBCCB, shall be processed in accordance with this procedure. This procedure also applies to all Program-level management documents controlled by the OCRWM PBCCB

Future device applications of low-dimensional carbon superlattice structures

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattacharyya, Somnath

2005-03-01

We observe superior transport properties in low-dimensional amorphous carbon (a-C) and superlattice structures fabricated by a number of different techniques. Low temperature conductivity of these materials is explained using argument based on the crossover of dimensionality of weak localization and electron-electron interactions along with a change of sign of the magneto-resistance. These trends are significantly different from many other well characterized ordered or oriented carbon structures, and, show direct evidence of high correlation length, mobility and an effect of the dimensionality in low-dimensional a-C films. We show routes to prepare bespoke features by tuning the phase relaxation time in order to make high-speed devices over large areas. The artificially grown multi-layer superlattice structures of diamond-like amorphous carbon films show high-frequency resonance and quantum conductance suggesting sufficiently high values of phase coherence length in the present disordered a-C system that could lead to fast switching multi-valued logic.

Near Detectors based on gas TPCs for neutrino long baseline experiments

CERN Document Server

Blondel, A

2017-01-01

Time Projection Chambers have been used with success for the T2K ND280 near detector and are proposed for an upgrade of the T2K near detector. High pressure TPCs are also being considered for future long-baseline experiments like Hyper-Kamiokande and DUNE. A High Pressure TPC would be a very sensitive detector for the detailed study of neutrino-nucleus interactions, a limiting factor for extracting the ultimate precision in long baseline experiments. The requirements of TPCs for neutrino detectors are quite specific. We propose here the development of state-of-the-art near detectors based on gas TPC: atmospheric pressure TPCs for T2K-II and a high-pressure TPC for neutrino experiments. The project proposed here benefits from a strong involvement of the European (CERN) members of the T2K collaboration and beyond. It is a strongly synergetic precursor of other projects of near detectors using gas TPCs that are under discussion for the long baseline neutrino projects worldwide. It will help maintain and develop...

Coupling between the continental carbon and water cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Gentine, P.; Lemordant, L. A.; Green, J. K.

2017-12-01

The continental carbon adn water cycles are fundamentally coupled through leaf gas exchange at the stomata level. IN this presnetation we will emphasize the importance of this coupling for the future of the water cycle (runoff, evaporation, soil moisture) and in turn the implications for the carbon cycle and the capacity of continents to act as a carbon dioxyde sink in the future. Opprtunites from coupled carbon-water monitoring platforms will be then emphasized.

Climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under stabilization: uncertainty and observational constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, Chris D.; Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris

2006-01-01

Avoiding 'dangerous climate change' by stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at a desired level requires reducing the rate of anthropogenic carbon emissions so that they are balanced by uptake of carbon by the natural terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles. Previous calculations of profiles of emissions which lead to stabilized CO 2 levels have assumed no impact of climate change on this natural carbon uptake. However, future climate change effects on the land carbon cycle are predicted to reduce its ability to act as a sink for anthropogenic carbon emissions and so quantification of this feedback is required to determine future permissible emissions. Here, we assess the impact of the climate-carbon cycle feedback and attempt to quantify its uncertainty due to both within-model parameter uncertainty and between-model structural uncertainty. We assess the use of observational constraints to reduce uncertainty in the future permissible emissions for climate stabilization and find that all realistic carbon cycle feedbacks consistent with the observational record give permissible emissions significantly less than previously assumed. However, the observational record proves to be insufficient to tightly constrain carbon cycle processes or future feedback strength with implications for climate-carbon cycle model evaluation

Towards the development of a GHG emissions baseline for the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU sector, South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luanne B. Stevens

2016-12-01

Full Text Available South Africa is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC and as such is required to report on Greenhouse gas (GHG emissions from the Energy, Transport, Waste and the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU sectors every two years in national inventories. The AFOLU sector is unique in that it comprises both sources and sinks for GHGs. Emissions from the AFOLU sector are estimated to contribute a quarter of the total global greenhouse gas emissions. GHG emissions sources from agriculture include enteric fermentation; manure management; manure deposits on pastures, and soil fertilization. Emissions sources from Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU include anthropogenic land use activities such as: management of croplands, forests and grasslands and changes in land use cover (the conversion of one land use to another. South Africa has improved the quantification of AFOLU emissions and the understanding of the dynamic relationship between sinks and sources over the past decade through projects such as the 2010 GHG Inventory, the Mitigation Potential Analysis (MPA, and the National Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Assessment (NTCSA. These projects highlight key mitigation opportunities in South Africa and discuss their potentials. The problem remains that South Africa does not have an emissions baseline for the AFOLU sector against which the mitigation potentials can be measured. The AFOLU sector as a result is often excluded from future emission projections, giving an incomplete picture of South Africa’s mitigation potential. The purpose of this project was to develop a robust GHG emissions baseline for the AFOLU sector which will enable South Africa to project emissions into the future and demonstrate its contribution towards the global goal of reducing emissions.

Assessment of the possible future climatic impact of carbon dioxide increases based on a coupled one-dimensional atmospheric-oceanic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunt, B.G.; Wells, N.C.

1979-01-01

A radiative-convective equilibrium model of the atmosphere has been coupled with a mixed layer model of the ocean to investigate the response of this one-dimensional system to increasing carbon dioxide amounts in the atmosphere. For global mean conditions a surface temperature rise of about 2 0 K was obtained for a doubling of the carbon dioxide amount, in reasonable agreement with the commonly accepted results of Manabe and Wetherald. This temperature rise was essentially invariant with season and indicates that including a shallow (300 m) ocean slab in this problem does not basically alter previous assessments. While the mixed layer depth of the ocean was only very slightly changed by the temperature increase, which extended throughout the depth of the mixed layer, the impact of this increase on the overall behavior of the ocean warrants further study. A calculation was also made of the temporal variation of the sea surface temperature for three possible carbon dioxide growth rates starting from an initial carbon dioxide content of 300 ppm. This indicated that the thermal inertia of the slab ocean provides a time lag of 8 years in the sea surface temperature response compared to a land situation. This is not considered to be of great significance as regards the likely future climatic impact of carbon dioxide increase

Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Gender-Age-Physiology Index Stage for Predicting Future Lung Function Decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Salisbury, Margaret L; Xia, Meng; Zhou, Yueren; Murray, Susan; Tayob, Nabihah; Brown, Kevin K; Wells, Athol U; Schmidt, Shelley L; Martinez, Fernando J; Flaherty, Kevin R

2016-02-01

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive lung disease with variable course. The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) Index and staging system uses clinical variables to stage mortality risk. It is unknown whether clinical staging predicts future decline in pulmonary function. We assessed whether the GAP stage predicts future pulmonary function decline and whether interval pulmonary function change predicts mortality after accounting for stage. Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (N = 657) were identified retrospectively at three tertiary referral centers, and baseline GAP stages were assessed. Mixed models were used to describe average trajectories of FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (Dlco). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess whether declines in pulmonary function ≥ 10% in 6 months predict mortality after accounting for GAP stage. Over a 2-year period, GAP stage was not associated with differences in yearly lung function decline. After accounting for stage, a 10% decrease in FVC or Dlco over 6 months independently predicted death or transplantation (FVC hazard ratio, 1.37; Dlco hazard ratio, 1.30; both, P ≤ .03). Patients with GAP stage 2 with declining pulmonary function experienced a survival profile similar to patients with GAP stage 3, with 1-year event-free survival of 59.3% (95% CI, 49.4-67.8) vs 56.9% (95% CI, 42.2-69.1). Baseline GAP stage predicted death or lung transplantation but not the rate of future pulmonary function decline. After accounting for GAP stage, a decline of ≥ 10% over 6 months independently predicted death or lung transplantation. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Program reference schedule baseline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-07-01

This Program Reference Schedule Baseline (PRSB) provides the baseline Program-level milestones and associated schedules for the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program. It integrates all Program-level schedule-related activities. This schedule baseline will be used by the Director, Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), and his staff to monitor compliance with Program objectives. Chapter 1 includes brief discussions concerning the relationship of the PRSB to the Program Reference Cost Baseline (PRCB), the Mission Plan, the Project Decision Schedule, the Total System Life Cycle Cost report, the Program Management Information System report, the Program Milestone Review, annual budget preparation, and system element plans. Chapter 2 includes the identification of all Level 0, or Program-level, milestones, while Chapter 3 presents and discusses the critical path schedules that correspond to those Level 0 milestones

Future of energy efficiency and carbon dioxide emissions of Finnish road freight transport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liimatainen, H.

2013-05-15

The targets to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions to mitigate climate change are as much applicable to the road freight transport sector as they are to all other sectors of society. The aim of this research is to support the initiatives of the Finnish government for improving the energy efficiency and reducing the CO{sub 2} emissions of road freight transport. This is done by forecasting the future development and giving the policy makers guidance on effective measures for promoting road freight energy efficiency and CO{sub 2} reduction. In the study a new method was introduced for connecting the fuel consumption data and goods transport data gathered from the official Finnish road statistics. This method enabled a detailed analysis of the interrelations between the economy, road freight transport, energy consumption and emissions. This analysis was conducted for the years 1995-2010 and the results were used as background information in the Delphi panel of experts. The experts estimated the development of the Finnish road freight sector to the year 2030. Furthermore, a web-based survey was conducted among Finnish road freight hauliers and shippers in order to explore the attitudes and measures related to the energy efficiency. Expert panel workshops were also organised to identify obstacles for the development of the energy efficiency of road freight transport as well as a wide selection of measures to overcome them. The results indicate that the economic development of different branches has a great effect on the energy efficiency and carbon dioxide emissions of road freight transport. Reaching the carbon emission target for the year 2030 is possible in the light of the scenarios which were formed based on expert forecasts. However, the target can be achieved with very different development paths, e.g. the structure of the national economy and the volume of transport seem to vary widely in the different scenarios. In the proposed recommendations on the measures

The UK transport carbon model: An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brand, Christian; Tran, Martino; Anable, Jillian

2012-01-01

Current debate focuses on the need for the transport sector to contribute to more ambitious carbon emission reduction targets. In the UK, various macro-economic and energy system wide, top-down models are used to explore the potential for energy demand and carbon emissions reduction in the transport sector. These models can lack the bottom-up, sectoral detail needed to simulate the effects of integrated demand and supply-side policy strategies to reduce emissions. Bridging the gap between short-term forecasting and long-term scenario “models”, this paper introduces a newly developed strategic transport, energy, emissions and environmental impacts model, the UK Transport Carbon Model (UKTCM). The UKTCM covers the range of transport–energy–environment issues from socio-economic and policy influences on energy demand reduction through to life cycle carbon emissions and external costs. The model is demonstrated in this paper by presenting the results of three single policies and one policy package scenario. Limitations of the model are also discussed. Developed under the auspices of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) the UKTCM can be used to develop transport policy scenarios that explore the full range of technological, fiscal, regulatory and behavioural change policy interventions to meet UK climate change and energy security goals. - Research highlights: ►New strategic transport, energy, emissions and environmental impacts model. ►Tool to develop and analyse full consequences of multiple scenarios of transport policy packages. ►Novel approach to modelling demand for new vehicles by market and technology. ►Model available for use by research community via http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-index.php?page=UK+Transport+Carbon+Model.

Current systematic carbon-cycle observations and the need for implementing a policy-relevant carbon observing system

Science.gov (United States)

P. Ciais; A. J. Dolman; A. Bombelli; R. Duren; A. Peregon; P. J. Rayner; C. Miller; N. Gobron; G. Kinderman; G. Marland; N. Gruber; F. Chevallier; R. J. Andres; G. Balsamo; L. Bopp; F.-M. Bréon; G. Broquet; R. Dargaville; T. J. Battin; A. Borges; H. Bovensmann; M. Buchwitz; J. Butler; J. G. Canadell; R. B. Cook; R. DeFries; R. Engelen; K. R. Gurney; C. Heinze; M. Heimann; A. Held; M. Henry; B. Law; S. Luyssaert; J. Miller; T. Moriyama; C. Moulin; R. B. Myneni; C. Nussli; M. Obersteiner; D. Ojima; Y. Pan; J.-D. Paris; S. L. Piao; B. Poulter; S. Plummer; S. Quegan; P. Raymond; M. Reichstein; L. Rivier; C. Sabine; D. Schimel; O. Tarasova; R. Valentini; R. Wang; G. van der Werf; D. Wickland; M. Williams; C. Zehner

2014-01-01

A globally integrated carbon observation and analysis system is needed to improve the fundamental understanding of the global carbon cycle, to improve our ability to project future changes, and to verify the effectiveness of policies aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration. Building an integrated carbon observation system requires...

An economic evaluation of carbon emission and carbon sequestration for the forestry sector in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ismail, R.

1995-01-01

Forestry is an important sector in Malaysia. The long term development of the forestry sector will definitely affect the future amounts of carbon sequestration and emission of the country. This paper evaluates various forestry economic options that contribute to the reduction of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The analysis shows that, although forest plantation could sequester the highest amount of carbon per unit area, natural forests which are managed for sustainable timber production are the cheapest option for per-unit area carbon sequestrated. In evaluating forest options to address the issues of carbon sequestration and emission, the paper proposes that it should be assessed as an integral part of overall long term forestry development of the country which takes into account the future demands for forestry goods and services, financial resources, technology and human resource development. (Author)

CryoSat SAR/SARin Level1b products: assessment of BaselineC and improvements towards BaselineD

Science.gov (United States)

Scagliola, Michele; Fornari, Marco; Bouffard, Jerome; Parrinello, Tommaso

2017-04-01

CryoSat was launched on the 8th April 2010 and is the first European ice mission dedicated to the monitoring of precise changes in the thickness of polar ice sheets and floating sea ice. Cryosat carries an innovative radar altimeter called the Synthetic Aperture Interferometric Altimeter (SIRAL), that transmits pulses at a high pulse repetition frequency thus making the received echoes phase coherent and suitable for azimuth processing. This allows to reach a significantly improved along track resolution with respect to traditional pulse-width limited altimeters. CryoSat is the first altimetry mission operating in SAR mode and continuous improvements in the Level1 Instrument Processing Facility (IPF1) are being identified, tested and validated in order to improve the quality of the Level1b products. The current IPF, Baseline C, was released in operation in April 2015 and the second CryoSat reprocessing campaign was jointly initiated, taking benefit of the upgrade implemented in the IPF1 processing chain but also of some specific configurations for the calibration corrections. In particular, the CryoSat Level1b BaselineC products generated in the framework of the second reprocessing campaign include refined information for what concerns the mispointing angles and the calibration corrections. This poster will thus detail thus the evolutions that are currently planned for the CryoSat BaselineD SAR/SARin Level1b products and the corresponding quality improvements that are expected.

Estimating the carbon budget and maximizing future carbon uptake for a temperate forest region in the U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott D. Peckham; Stith T. Gower; Joseph Buongiorno

2012-01-01

Forests of the Midwest U.S. provide numerous ecosystem services. Two of these, carbon sequestration and wood production, are often portrayed as conflicting. Currently, carbon management and biofuel policies are being developed to reduce atmospheric CO2 and national dependence on foreign oil, and increase carbon storage in ecosystems. However, the biological and...

The Carbon Tax: an idea for the future only if..

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hourcade, Jean-Charles

2015-01-01

The transition from theory to practice is a difficult exercise for carbon tax. This article explains why the ambitious projects of carbon tax are generally all doomed to fail. Past experience shows that individual adjustment costs are perceived as immediate and very high while benefits are perceived as weak, uncertain and delayed, which induces a strong opposition from both households and companies. Yet the double dividend -carbon emission reduction and gains in employment - is potentially high. One solution consists in encompassing the environmental taxation issues in a global view of public finance and managing this tax as a component of a new social contract. The current period of low oil prices is favorable to adopt such a change, but this window of opportunity could be short-lived

Inequality, climate impacts on the future poor, and carbon prices.

Science.gov (United States)

Dennig, Francis; Budolfson, Mark B; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H

2015-12-29

Integrated assessment models of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. We create a variant of the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)-a regionally disaggregated version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE)-in which we introduce a more fine-grained representation of economic inequalities within the model's regions. This allows us to model the common observation that climate change impacts are not evenly distributed within regions and that poorer people are more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Our results suggest that this is important to the social cost of carbon-as significant, potentially, for the optimal carbon price as the debate between Stern and Nordhaus on discounting.

Role of nuclear fusion in future energy systems and the environment under future uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tokimatsu, Koji; Fujino, Jun'ichi; Konishi, Satoshi; Ogawa, Yuichi; Yamaji, Kenji

2003-01-01

Debates about whether or not to invest heavily in nuclear fusion as a future innovative energy option have been made within the context of energy technology development strategies. This is because the prospects for nuclear fusion are quite uncertain and the investments therefore carry the risk of quite large regrets, even though investment is needed in order to develop the technology. The timeframe by which nuclear fusion could become competitive in the energy market has not been adequately studied, nor has roles of the nuclear fusion in energy systems and the environment. The present study has two objectives. One is to reveal the conditions under which nuclear fusion could be introduced economically (hereafter, we refer to such introductory conditions as breakeven prices) in future energy systems. The other objective is to evaluate the future roles of nuclear fusion in energy systems and in the environment. Here we identify three roles that nuclear fusion will take on when breakeven prices are achieved: (i) a portion of the electricity market in 2100, (ii) reduction of annual global total energy systems cost, and (iii) mitigation of carbon tax (shadow price of carbon) under CO 2 constraints. Future uncertainties are key issues in evaluating nuclear fusion. Here we treated the following uncertainties: energy demand scenarios, introduction timeframe for nuclear fusion, capacity projections of nuclear fusion, CO 2 target in 2100, capacity utilization ratio of options in energy/environment technologies, and utility discount rates. From our investigations, we conclude that the presently designed nuclear fusion reactors may be ready for economical introduction into energy systems beginning around 2050-2060, and we can confirm that the favorable introduction of the reactors would reduce both the annual energy systems cost and the carbon tax (the shadow price of carbon) under a CO 2 concentration constraint

A method to establish seismic noise baselines for automated station assessment

Science.gov (United States)

McNamara, D.E.; Hutt, C.R.; Gee, L.S.; Benz, H.M.; Buland, R.P.

2009-01-01

We present a method for quantifying station noise baselines and characterizing the spectral shape of out-of-nominal noise sources. Our intent is to automate this method in order to ensure that only the highest-quality data are used in rapid earthquake products at NEIC. In addition, the station noise baselines provide a valuable tool to support the quality control of GSN and ANSS backbone data and metadata. The procedures addressed here are currently in development at the NEIC, and work is underway to understand how quickly changes from nominal can be observed and used within the NEIC processing framework. The spectral methods and software used to compute station baselines and described herein (PQLX) can be useful to both permanent and portable seismic stations operators. Applications include: general seismic station and data quality control (QC), evaluation of instrument responses, assessment of near real-time communication system performance, characterization of site cultural noise conditions, and evaluation of sensor vault design, as well as assessment of gross network capabilities (McNamara et al. 2005). Future PQLX development plans include incorporating station baselines for automated QC methods and automating station status report generation and notification based on user-defined QC parameters. The PQLX software is available through the USGS (http://earthquake. usgs.gov/research/software/pqlx.php) and IRIS (http://www.iris.edu/software/ pqlx/).

Coupling a Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Brayton Cycle to a Helium-Cooled Reactor.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Middleton, Bobby [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Pasch, James Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kruizenga, Alan Michael [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Walker, Matthew [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

2016-01-01

This report outlines the thermodynamics of a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO₂) recompression closed Brayton cycle (RCBC) coupled to a Helium-cooled nuclear reactor. The baseline reactor design for the study is the AREVA High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR). Using the AREVA HTGR nominal operating parameters, an initial thermodynamic study was performed using Sandia's deterministic RCBC analysis program. Utilizing the output of the RCBC thermodynamic analysis, preliminary values of reactor power and of Helium flow rate through the reactor were calculated in Sandia's HelCO₂ code. Some research regarding materials requirements was then conducted to determine aspects of corrosion related to both Helium and to sCO₂ , as well as some mechanical considerations for pressures and temperatures that will be seen by the piping and other components. This analysis resulted in a list of materials-related research items that need to be conducted in the future. A short assessment of dry heat rejection advantages of sCO₂> Brayton cycles was also included. This assessment lists some items that should be investigated in the future to better understand how sCO₂ Brayton cycles and nuclear can maximally contribute to optimizing the water efficiency of carbon free power generation

Effect of Soil Filtration and Ozonation in the Change of Baseline Toxicity in Wastewater Spiked with Organic Micro-pollutants

KAUST Repository

Gan, Alexander

2012-07-01

Bioassays for baseline toxicity, which measure toxicants’ non-specific effects, have been shown in previous studies to effectively correlate with the increased presence of pharmaceuticals, personal care products, endocrine-disrupting compounds, and other synthetic organics in treated sewage effluent. This study investigated how the baseline toxicity of anthropogenic compounds-spiked wastewater changed during the treatment of biofiltration and ozone oxidation, as measured by the bioluminescence inhibition of the Vibrio fischeri bacterium. The water quality parameters of dissolved organic carbon, seven common anions, and fluorescence spectroscopy were used to corroborate and collate with the toxicity results. Water quality was evaluated on two bench-scale soil filtration columns, which were configured for pre-ozonation and post-ozonation. Both systems’ soil aerobically removed similar amounts of dissolved organic carbon, and the reduction ranged between 57.7% and 62.1% for the post-ozonation and pre-ozonation systems, respectively. Biological removal of DOC, protein-like, humic-like, and soluble microbial product-like material was highest in the first 28.5 cm of each 114 cm-long system. While bioluminescence inhibition showed that ozonation was effective at lowering baseline toxicity, this study’s bioassay procedure was a very poor indicator of soil filtration treatment; both system’s effluents were significantly more toxic than their non-ozonated influents.

Calcium carbonate production response to future ocean warming and acidification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. J. Pinsonneault

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂ emissions are acidifying the ocean, affecting calcification rates in pelagic organisms, and thereby modifying the oceanic carbon and alkalinity cycles. However, the responses of pelagic calcifying organisms to acidification vary widely between species, contributing uncertainty to predictions of atmospheric CO₂ and the resulting climate change. At the same time, ocean warming caused by rising CO₂ is expected to drive increased growth rates of all pelagic organisms, including calcifiers. It thus remains unclear whether anthropogenic CO₂ emissions will ultimately increase or decrease pelagic calcification rates. Here, we assess the importance of this uncertainty by introducing a dependence of calcium carbonate (CaCO₃ production on calcite saturation state (Ω_CaCO3 in an intermediate complexity coupled carbon-climate model. In a series of model simulations, we examine the impact of several variants of this dependence on global ocean carbon cycling between 1800 and 3500 under two different CO₂ emissions scenarios. Introducing a calcification-saturation state dependence has a significant effect on the vertical and surface horizontal alkalinity gradients, as well as on the removal of alkalinity from the ocean through CaCO₃ burial. These changes result in an additional oceanic uptake of carbon when calcification depends on Ω_CaCO3 (of up to 270 Pg C, compared to the case where calcification does not depend on acidification. In turn, this response causes a reduction of global surface air temperature of up to 0.4 °C in year 3500. Different versions of the model produced varying results, and narrowing this range of uncertainty will require better understanding of both temperature and acidification effects on pelagic calcifiers. Nevertheless, our results suggest that alkalinity observations can be used

Damages detection in cylindrical metallic specimens by means of statistical baseline models and updated daily temperature profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Villamizar-Mejia, Rodolfo; Mujica-Delgado, Luis-Eduardo; Ruiz-Ordóñez, Magda-Liliana; Camacho-Navarro, Jhonatan; Moreno-Beltrán, Gustavo

2017-05-01

In previous works, damage detection of metallic specimens exposed to temperature changes has been achieved by using a statistical baseline model based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA), piezodiagnostics principle and taking into account temperature effect by augmenting the baseline model or by using several baseline models according to the current temperature. In this paper a new approach is presented, where damage detection is based in a new index that combine Q and T2 statistical indices with current temperature measurements. Experimental tests were achieved in a carbon-steel pipe of 1m length and 1.5 inches diameter, instrumented with piezodevices acting as actuators or sensors. A PCA baseline model was obtained to a temperature of 21º and then T2 and Q statistical indices were obtained for a 24h temperature profile. Also, mass adding at different points of pipe between sensor and actuator was used as damage. By using the combined index the temperature contribution can be separated and a better differentiation of damages respect to undamaged cases can be graphically obtained.

Policy implications of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

The 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand is summarized. Three broad implications concerning the future of the natural gas industry are highlighted: the residual impact of the August 1990 Gulf War on crude oil prices and the factors influencing the long-term price path, the impact of the growing number of environmental constraints on future energy use, and the effect of recent developments in gas production on future gas supply and price

DairyBISS Baseline report

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buizer, N.N.; Berhanu, Tinsae; Murutse, Girmay; Vugt, van S.M.

2015-01-01

This baseline report of the Dairy Business Information Service and Support (DairyBISS) project presents the findings of a baseline survey among 103 commercial farms and 31 firms and advisors working in the dairy value chain. Additional results from the survey among commercial dairy farms are

Carbon debt - Lost in the forest?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bentsen, Niclas Scott

2014-01-01

The concept of ‘carbon debt’ and carbon payback time with reference to bioenergy and biofuels was probably launched by anarticle in Science in 2008. The concept is increasingly seen as an indicator of the sustainability of bioenergy supply chains.Particularly for forest bioenergy supply chains...... the time lapse between harvest and regrowth may be a signifi cant factor for themodeled carbon debt. A meta-analysis of more than 250 model scenarios was conducted to evaluate the factors and assumptionsdetermining carbon debts and payback time of forest bioenergy supply chains. Factors such as spatial...... and temporal scale, biome,origin of the wood resource, which fossil fuels are displaced, forest history, baseline scenario, accounting principle, and databackground were included in the analysis. This paper discusses the evolution of the carbon debt concept, how different factorsand assumptions infl uence...

Baseline rationing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hougaard, Jens Leth; Moreno-Ternero, Juan D.; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

The standard problem of adjudicating conflicting claims describes a situation in which a given amount of a divisible good has to be allocated among agents who hold claims against it exceeding the available amount. This paper considers more general rationing problems in which, in addition to claims...... to international protocols for the reduction of greenhouse emissions, or water distribution in drought periods. We define a family of allocation methods for such general rationing problems - called baseline rationing rules - and provide an axiomatic characterization for it. Any baseline rationing rule within...... the family is associated with a standard rule and we show that if the latter obeys some properties reflecting principles of impartiality, priority and solidarity, the former obeys them too....

Breaking Carbon Lock-in

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Driscoll, Patrick Arthur

2014-01-01

This central focus of this paper is to highlight the ways in which path dependencies and increasing returns (network effects) serve to reinforce carbon lock-in in large-scale road transportation infrastructure projects. Breaking carbon lock-in requires drastic changes in the way we plan future...

Baseline restoration using current conveyors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgado, A.M.L.S.; Simoes, J.B.; Correia, C.M.

1996-01-01

A good performance of high resolution nuclear spectrometry systems, at high pulse rates, demands restoration of baseline between pulses, in order to remove rate dependent baseline shifts. This restoration is performed by circuits named baseline restorers (BLRs) which also remove low frequency noise, such as power supply hum and detector microphonics. This paper presents simple circuits for baseline restoration based on a commercial current conveyor (CCII01). Tests were performed, on two circuits, with periodic trapezoidal shaped pulses in order to measure the baseline restoration for several pulse rates and restorer duty cycles. For the current conveyor based Robinson restorer, the peak shift was less than 10 mV, for duty cycles up to 60%, at high pulse rates. Duty cycles up to 80% were also tested, being the maximum peak shift 21 mV. The peak shift for the current conveyor based Grubic restorer was also measured. The maximum value found was 30 mV at 82% duty cycle. Keeping the duty cycle below 60% improves greatly the restorer performance. The ability of both baseline restorer architectures to reject low frequency modulation is also measured, with good results on both circuits

The Role of Natural Gas Power Plants with Carbon Capture and Storage in a Low-Carbon Future

Science.gov (United States)

Natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) turbines with carbon capture and storage (CCS) are a promising technology for reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the electric sector. However, the high cost and efficiency penalties associated with CCS, as well as methane leakage from nat...

Carbon Nanotubes as Future Energy Storage System

OpenAIRE

Vasu , V; Silambarasan , D

2017-01-01

International audience; Hydrogen is considered to be a clean energy carrier. At present the main drawback in using hydrogen as the fuel is the lack of proper hydrogen storage vehicle, thus ongoing research is focused on the development of advance hydrogen storage materials. Many alloys are able to store hydrogen reversibly, but the gravimetric storage density is too low for any practical applications. Theoretical studies have predicted that interaction of hydrogen with carbon nanotubes is by ...

Utilizing Forest Inventory and Analysis Data, Remote Sensing, and Ecosystem Models for National Forest System Carbon Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Alexa J. Dugan; Richard A. Birdsey; Sean P. Healey; Christopher Woodall; Fangmin Zhang; Jing M. Chen; Alexander Hernandez; James B. McCarter

2015-01-01

Forested lands, representing the largest terrestrial carbon sink in the United States, offset 16% of total U.S. carbon dioxide emissions through carbon sequestration. Meanwhile, this carbon sink is threatened by deforestation, climate change and natural disturbances. As a result, U.S. Forest Service policies require that National Forests assess baseline carbon stocks...

Molecular dynamics study of interfacial confinement effects of aqueous NaCl brines in nanoporous carbon

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wander, M. C. F.; Shuford, K. L.

2010-12-09

In this paper, studies of aqueous electrolyte solutions in contact with a family of porous carbon geometries using classical molecular dynamics simulations are presented. These simulations provide an atomic scale depiction of ion transport dynamics in different environments to elucidate power of aqueous electrolyte supercapacitors. The electrolyte contains alkali metal and halide ions, which allow for the examination of size trends within specific geometries as well as trends in concentration. The electrode pores are modeled as planar graphite sheets and carbon nanotubes with interstices ranging from one to four nanometers. Ordered layers form parallel to the carbon surface, which facilitates focused ion motion under slightly confining conditions. As a result, the ion’s diffusivities are enhanced in the direction of the slit or pore. Further confining the system leads to decreased ion diffusivities. The ions are fully hydrated in all but the smallest slits and pores with those sizes showing increased ion pairing. There is strong evidence of charge separation perpendicular to the surface at all size scales, concentrations, and ion types, providing a useful baseline for examining differential capacitance behavior and future studies on energy storage. These systems show promise as high-power electrical energy storage devices.

High contributions of sea ice derived carbon in polar bear (Ursus maritimus tissue.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas A Brown

Full Text Available Polar bears (Ursus maritimus rely upon Arctic sea ice as a physical habitat. Consequently, conservation assessments of polar bears identify the ongoing reduction in sea ice to represent a significant threat to their survival. However, the additional role of sea ice as a potential, indirect, source of energy to bears has been overlooked. Here we used the highly branched isoprenoid lipid biomarker-based index (H-Print approach in combination with quantitative fatty acid signature analysis to show that sympagic (sea ice-associated, rather than pelagic, carbon contributions dominated the marine component of polar bear diet (72-100%; 99% CI, n = 55, irrespective of differences in diet composition. The lowest mean estimates of sympagic carbon were found in Baffin Bay bears, which were also exposed to the most rapidly increasing open water season. Therefore, our data illustrate that for future Arctic ecosystems that are likely to be characterised by reduced sea ice cover, polar bears will not only be impacted by a change in their physical habitat, but also potentially in the supply of energy to the ecosystems upon which they depend. This data represents the first quantifiable baseline that is critical for the assessment of likely ongoing changes in energy supply to Arctic predators as we move into an increasingly uncertain future for polar ecosystems.

The Future of the Mississippi Delta: Shifting Baselines, Diminishing Resilience, and Growing Non-Sustainability

Science.gov (United States)

Day, J.

2017-12-01

Ecosystems and human communities of the Mississippi delta developed with predictable basin inputs, stable sea level, and as an open system with a high degree of interaction among drainage basin inputs, deltaic plain, and the coastal sea. Human activity changed altered the coast and lowered predictability. Management has become very energy intensive and dependent on cheap resources with more hard engineering and less ecological engineering. Pervasive alteration of the basin and delta and global change have altered the baseline and change is accelerating. Climate change projections include not only sea-level rise, but also more stronger hurricanes, increased large river floods, and more intense rainfall events and droughts. A sustainable Mississippi is outside of the boundaries of the current CMP.

TAPIR--Finnish national geochemical baseline database.

Science.gov (United States)

Jarva, Jaana; Tarvainen, Timo; Reinikainen, Jussi; Eklund, Mikael

2010-09-15

In Finland, a Government Decree on the Assessment of Soil Contamination and Remediation Needs has generated a need for reliable and readily accessible data on geochemical baseline concentrations in Finnish soils. According to the Decree, baseline concentrations, referring both to the natural geological background concentrations and the diffuse anthropogenic input of substances, shall be taken into account in the soil contamination assessment process. This baseline information is provided in a national geochemical baseline database, TAPIR, that is publicly available via the Internet. Geochemical provinces with elevated baseline concentrations were delineated to provide regional geochemical baseline values. The nationwide geochemical datasets were used to divide Finland into geochemical provinces. Several metals (Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, V, and Zn) showed anomalous concentrations in seven regions that were defined as metal provinces. Arsenic did not follow a similar distribution to any other elements, and four arsenic provinces were separately determined. Nationwide geochemical datasets were not available for some other important elements such as Cd and Pb. Although these elements are included in the TAPIR system, their distribution does not necessarily follow the ones pre-defined for metal and arsenic provinces. Regional geochemical baseline values, presented as upper limit of geochemical variation within the region, can be used as trigger values to assess potential soil contamination. Baseline values have also been used to determine upper and lower guideline values that must be taken into account as a tool in basic risk assessment. If regional geochemical baseline values are available, the national guideline values prescribed in the Decree based on ecological risks can be modified accordingly. The national geochemical baseline database provides scientifically sound, easily accessible and generally accepted information on the baseline values, and it can be used in various

Modeling Carbon Exchange

Science.gov (United States)

Sellers, Piers

2012-01-01

Model results will be reviewed to assess different methods for bounding the terrestrial role in the global carbon cycle. It is proposed that a series of climate model runs could be scoped that would tighten the limits on the "missing sink" of terrestrial carbon and could also direct future satellite image analyses to search for its geographical location and understand its seasonal dynamics.

Blue Carbon distribution in mangrove forests of the Americas

Science.gov (United States)

Simard, M.; Rivera-Monroy, V.; Fatoyinbo, T. E.; Roy Chowdhury, R.

2013-12-01

Globally, coastal ecosystems are critical to maintaining human livelihood and biodiversity. These ecosystems including mangroves, salt marshes, and sea grasses provide essential ecosystem services, such as supporting fisheries by providing important spawning grounds, filtering pollutants and contaminants from coastal waters, and protecting coastal development and communities against storms, floods and erosion. Additionally, recent research indicates that these vegetated coastal ecosystems are highly efficient carbon sinks (i.e. 'Blue Carbon') and can potentially play a significant role in ameliorating the effect of increasing global climate change by capturing significant amounts of carbon into sediments and plant biomass. The term blue carbon indicates the carbon stored in coastal vegetated wetlands (i.e., mangroves, intertidal marshes, and seagrass meadows). As a result of rapid global changes in coastal regions, it is crucial that we improve our understanding of the current and future state of the remaining coastal ecosystems and associated ecosystem services and their vulnerability to global climate change. In this study, we present a continental scale study of mangrove distribution and assess patterns of forest structural development associated to latitude and geomorphological setting. We produced a baseline map of mangrove canopy height and biomass for all mangrove forests of the Americas using data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and publicly available land cover maps (Figure 1). The resulting canopy height map was calibrated using ICEsat/Geoscience Laser Altimeter system (GLAS). Biomass was derived from field data and allometry. The maps were validated with field data and results in accuracies that vary spatially around 2 to 3m in height and 20% in biomass. Figure 1: Global distribution of mangrove forests (green) and SRTM elevation data. These data were used to produce large scale maps of mangrove canopy height and biomass.

A method for permanent CO2 mineral carbonation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dahlin, David C.; O' Connor, William K.; Nilsen, David N.; Rush, G.E.; Walters, Richard P.; Turner, Paul C.

2000-01-01

The Albany Research Center (ARC) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has been conducting research to investigate the feasibility of mineral carbonation as a method for carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration. The research is part of a Mineral Carbonation Study Program within the Office of Fossil Energy in DOE. Other participants in this Program include DOE?s Los Alamos National Laboratory and National Energy Technology Laboratory, Arizona State University, and Science Applications International Corporation. The research has focused on ex-situ mineral carbonation in an aqueous system. The process developed at ARC reacts a slurry of magnesium silicate mineral with supercritical CO2 to produce a solid magnesium carbonate product. To date, olivine and serpentine have been used as the mineral reactant, but other magnesium silicates could be used as well. The process is designed to simulate the natural serpentinization reaction of ultramafic minerals, and consequently, these results may also be applicable to strategies for in-situ geological sequestration. Baseline tests were begun in distilled water on ground products of foundry-grade olivine. Tests conducted at 150 C and subcritical CO2 pressures (50 atm) resulted in very slow conversion to carbonate. Increasing the partial pressure of CO2 to supercritical (>73 atm) conditions, coupled with agitation of the slurry and gas dispersion within the water column, resulted in significant improvement in the extent of reaction in much shorter reaction times. A change from distilled water to a bicarbonate/salt solution further improved the rate and extent of reaction. When serpentine, a hydrated mineral, was used instead of olivine, extent of reaction was poor until heat treatment was included prior to the carbonation reaction. Removal of the chemically bound water resulted in conversion to carbonate similar to those obtained with olivine. Recent results have shown that conversions of nearly 80 pct are achievable after 30 minutes

Multiporous carbon allotropes transformed from symmetry-matched carbon nanotubes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yingxiang Cai

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Carbon nanotubes (CNTs with homogeneous diameters have been proven to transform into new carbon allotropes under pressure but no studies on the compression of inhomogeneous CNTs have been reported. In this study, we propose to build new carbon allotropes from the bottom-up by applying pressure on symmetry-matched inhomogeneous CNTs. We find that the (3,0 CNT with point group C3v and the (6,0 CNT with point group C6v form an all sp3 hybridized hexagonal 3060-Carbon crystal, but the (4,0 CNT with point group D4h and the (8,0 CNT with point group D8h polymerize into a sp2+sp3 hybridized tetragonal 4080-Carbon structure. Their thermodynamic, mechanical and dynamic stabilities show that they are potential carbon allotropes to be experimentally synthesized. The multiporous structures, excellently mechanical properties and special electronic structures (semiconductive 3060-Carbon and semimetallic 4080-Carbon imply their many potential applications, such as gases purification, hydrogen storage and lightweight semiconductor devices. In addition, we simulate their feature XRD patterns which are helpful for identifying the two carbon crystals in future experimental studies.

Multiporous carbon allotropes transformed from symmetry-matched carbon nanotubes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cai, Yingxiang, E-mail: yingxiangcai@ncu.edu.cn; Wang, Hao; Xu, Shengliang; Hu, Yujie; Liu, Ning; Xu, Xuechun [Department of Physics, NanChang University, Jiangxi, Nanchang 330031 (China)

2016-06-15

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) with homogeneous diameters have been proven to transform into new carbon allotropes under pressure but no studies on the compression of inhomogeneous CNTs have been reported. In this study, we propose to build new carbon allotropes from the bottom-up by applying pressure on symmetry-matched inhomogeneous CNTs. We find that the (3,0) CNT with point group C{sub 3v} and the (6,0) CNT with point group C{sub 6v} form an all sp{sup 3} hybridized hexagonal 3060-Carbon crystal, but the (4,0) CNT with point group D{sub 4h} and the (8,0) CNT with point group D{sub 8h} polymerize into a sp{sup 2}+sp{sup 3} hybridized tetragonal 4080-Carbon structure. Their thermodynamic, mechanical and dynamic stabilities show that they are potential carbon allotropes to be experimentally synthesized. The multiporous structures, excellently mechanical properties and special electronic structures (semiconductive 3060-Carbon and semimetallic 4080-Carbon) imply their many potential applications, such as gases purification, hydrogen storage and lightweight semiconductor devices. In addition, we simulate their feature XRD patterns which are helpful for identifying the two carbon crystals in future experimental studies.

Drought resistance across California ecosystems: Evaluating changes in carbon dynamics using satellite imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Malone, Sparkle; Tulbure, Mirela; Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Assal, Timothy J.; Bremer, Leah; Drucker, Debora; Hillis, Vicken; Varela, Sara; Goulden, Michael

2016-01-01

Drought is a global issue that is exacerbated by climate change and increasing anthropogenic water demands. The recent occurrence of drought in California provides an important opportunity to examine drought response across ecosystem classes (forests, shrublands, grasslands, and wetlands), which is essential to understand how climate influences ecosystem structure and function. We quantified ecosystem resistance to drought by comparing changes in satellite-derived estimates of water-use efficiency (WUE = net primary productivity [NPP]/evapotranspiration [ET]) under normal (i.e., baseline) and drought conditions (ΔWUE = WUE2014 − baseline WUE). With this method, areas with increasing WUE under drought conditions are considered more resilient than systems with declining WUE. Baseline WUE varied across California (0.08 to 3.85 g C/mm H2O) and WUE generally increased under severe drought conditions in 2014. Strong correlations between ΔWUE, precipitation, and leaf area index (LAI) indicate that ecosystems with a lower average LAI (i.e., grasslands) also had greater C-uptake rates when water was limiting and higher rates of carbon-uptake efficiency (CUE = NPP/LAI) under drought conditions. We also found that systems with a baseline WUE ≤ 0.4 exhibited a decline in WUE under drought conditions, suggesting that a baseline WUE ≤ 0.4 might be indicative of low drought resistance. Drought severity, precipitation, and WUE were identified as important drivers of shifts in ecosystem classes over the study period. These findings have important implications for understanding climate change effects on primary productivity and C sequestration across ecosystems and how this may influence ecosystem resistance in the future.

Carbon Accounting and Cost Estimation in Forestry Projects Using CO2Fix V.3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groen, T.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Schelhaas, M.J.

2006-01-01

Carbon and financial accounting of projects in the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sector is a topic of hot debate. Large uncertainty remains concerning the carbon dynamics, the way they should be accounted and the cost efficiency of the projects. Part of the uncertainty can be alleviated by standardisation and transparency of reporting methods. For this reason we further developed CO2FIX, a forest ecosystem carbon model, with modules for carbon and financial accounting. The model is applied to four cases: (1) Joint implementation afforestation project in Romania, (2) Forest management project in Central Europe, (3) Reduced impact logging possibly under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in the future, and (4) Afforestation with native species under the Clean Development Mechanism. The results show the wide applicability of CO2FIX, from degrading grasslands as baseline cases to multiple cohort forest ecosystems. Also the results show that Forest Management in the European case can generate considerable amounts of carbon emission reductions. Further, the results show that although reduced impact logging is not yet an allowed option under the Clean Development Mechanism, it shows promising results in that it is (1) very cost effective, (2) seems to be able to generate intermediate amounts of credits and (3) seems to us as a project type that is not prone to leakage issues. These results are yet another indication to seriously consider reduced impact logging as an eligible measure under the CDM

CARBON DIOXIDE FIXATION.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

FUJITA,E.

2000-01-12

Solar carbon dioxide fixation offers the possibility of a renewable source of chemicals and fuels in the future. Its realization rests on future advances in the efficiency of solar energy collection and development of suitable catalysts for CO{sub 2} conversion. Recent achievements in the efficiency of solar energy conversion and in catalysis suggest that this approach holds a great deal of promise for contributing to future needs for fuels and chemicals.

Carbon disclosure project report 2009 : Canada 200

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, G.

2009-01-01

The carbon disclosure project conducts an annual survey to determine the strategies and actions of major cap companies in relation to climate change. This report discussed initiatives implemented by Canada's largest companies to prepare for a carbon-constrained future. The report documented results from 97 companies. The aim of the report was to help companies make use of the disclosures as reference points for future carbon markets and regulations relating to reporting requirements. Results of the survey demonstrated that Canada's low-carbon and high-carbon impact sectors have implemented several significant initiatives and best practices for operations. However, widespread engagement in a comprehensive manner has yet to be achieved. Many respondents were in the process of developing a more balanced risk-opportunity agenda in relation to climate change, and nearly half of all respondents have implemented governance arrangements or personal incentives in both both the high-carbon and low-carbon impact sectors. 5 tabs., 26 figs.

Branching points for transition pathways: assessing responses of actors to challenges on pathways to a low carbon future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foxon, Timothy J.; Pearson, Peter J.G.; Arapostathis, Stathis; Carlsson-Hyslop, Anna; Thornton, Judith

2013-01-01

This paper describes initial analysis of branching points on a set of transition pathways to a UK low carbon electricity future by 2050. As described in other papers in this special issue, we are exploring and analysing a set of core transition pathways, based on alternative governance patterns in which the ‘logics’ of market actors, government actors and civil society actors, respectively dominate. This core pathway analysis is enhanced by analyses of branching points within and across the pathways, which informs how competition between different logics plays out at key decision points. Branching points are defined as key decision points at which choices made by actors, in response to internal or external stresses or triggers, determine whether and in what ways the pathway is followed. A set of initial branching points for our three core transition pathways is identified through project and stakeholder workshops, and drawing on analysis of actors’ choices and responses at past branching points in energy system transitions. The potential responses of the actors are identified at these branching points, and risk mitigation strategies are formulated for the dominant actors to reinforce that pathway, as well as opportunities for actors to move away from the pathway. - Highlights: Transition Pathways is analysing three potential pathways to a low carbon future. ► Stresses lead to branching points, where actors make choices, creating pathways. ► These choices may lead to path-dependency. ► Differences in governance logics within transition pathways are also analysed. ► Studying branching points adds theoretical understanding and policy relevance to TP.

Visual impairment at baseline is associated with future poor physical functioning among middle-aged women: The Study of Women's Health Across the Nation, Michigan Site.

Science.gov (United States)

Chandrasekaran, Navasuja; Harlow, Sioban; Moroi, Sayoko; Musch, David; Peng, Qing; Karvonen-Gutierrez, Carrie

2017-02-01

Emerging evidence suggests that the prevalence rates of poor functioning and of disability are increasing among middle-aged individuals. Visual impairment is associated with poor functioning among older adults but little is known about the impact of vision on functioning during midlife. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of visual impairment on future physical functioning among middle-aged women. In this longitudinal study, the sample consisted of 483 women aged 42 to 56 years, from the Michigan site of the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation. At baseline, distance and near vision were measured using a Titmus vision screener. Visual impairment was defined as visual acuity worse than 20/40. Physical functioning was measured up to 10 years later using performance-based measures, including a 40-foot timed walk, timed stair climb and forward reach. Women with impaired distance vision at baseline had 2.81 centimeters less forward reach distance (95% confidence interval (CI): -4.19, -1.42) and 4.26s longer stair climb time (95% CI: 2.73, 5.79) at follow-up than women without impaired distance vision. Women with impaired near vision also had less forward reach distance (2.26 centimeters, 95% CI: -3.30, -1.21) than those without impaired near vision. Among middle-aged women, visual impairment is a marker of poor physical functioning. Routine eye testing and vision correction may help improve physical functioning among midlife individuals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Low-Carbon Energy Development in Indonesia in Alignment with Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC by 2030

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ucok W.R. Siagian

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This study analyzed the role of low-carbon energy technologies in reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of Indonesia’s energy sector by 2030. The aim of this study was to provide insights into the Indonesian government’s approach to developing a strategy and plan for mitigating emissions and achieving Indonesia’s emission reduction targets by 2030, as pledged in the country’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE model was used to quantify three scenarios that had the same socioeconomic assumptions: baseline, countermeasure (CM1, and CM2, which had a higher emission reduction target than that of CM1. Results of the study showed that an Indonesian low-carbon energy system could be achieved with two pillars, namely, energy efficiency measures and deployment of less carbon-intensive energy systems (i.e., the use of renewable energy in the power and transport sectors, and the use of natural gas in the power sector and in transport. Emission reductions would also be satisfied through the electrification of end-user consumption where the electricity supply becomes decarbonized by deploying renewables for power generation. Under CM1, Indonesia could achieve a 15.5% emission reduction target (compared to the baseline scenario. This reduction could be achieved using efficiency measures that reduce final energy demand by 4%; This would require the deployment of geothermal power plants at a rate six times greater than the baseline scenario and four times the use of hydropower than that used in the baseline scenario. Greater carbon reductions (CM2; i.e., a 27% reduction could be achieved with similar measures to CM1 but with more intensive penetration. Final energy demand would need to be cut by 13%, deployment of geothermal power plants would need to be seven times greater than at baseline, and hydropower use would need to be five times greater than the baseline case

Hydrogeology baseline study Aurora Mine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

A baseline hydrogeologic study was conducted in the area of Syncrude's proposed Aurora Mine in order to develop a conceptual regional hydrogeologic model for the area that could be used to understand groundwater flow conditions. Geologic information was obtained from over 2,000 coreholes and from data obtained between 1980 and 1996 regarding water level for the basal aquifer. A 3-D numerical groundwater flow model was developed to provide quantitative estimates of the potential environmental impacts of the proposed mining operations on the groundwater flow system. The information was presented in the context of a regional study area which encompassed much of the Athabasca Oil Sands Region, and a local study area which was defined by the lowlands of the Muskeg River Basin. Characteristics of the topography, hydrology, climate, geology, and hydrogeology of the region are described. The conclusion is that groundwater flow in the aquifer occurs mostly in a westerly direction beneath the Aurora Mine towards its inferred discharge location along the Athabasca River. Baseflow in the Muskeg River is mostly related to discharge from shallow surficial aquifers. Water in the river under baseflow conditions was fresh, of calcium-carbonate type, with very little indication of mineralization associated with deeper groundwater in the Aurora Mine area. 44 refs., 5 tabs., 31 figs

Early antihypertensive treatment and clinical outcomes in acute ischemic stroke: subgroup analysis by baseline blood pressure.

Science.gov (United States)

He, William J; Zhong, Chongke; Xu, Tan; Wang, Dali; Sun, Yingxian; Bu, Xiaoqing; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; Wang, Jinchao; Ju, Zhong; Li, Qunwei; Zhang, Jintao; Geng, Deqin; Zhang, Jianhui; Li, Dong; Li, Yongqiu; Yuan, Xiaodong; Zhang, Yonghong; Kelly, Tanika N

2018-06-01

We studied the effect of early antihypertensive treatment on death, major disability, and vascular events among patients with acute ischemic stroke according to their baseline SBP. We randomly assigned 4071 acute ischemic stroke patients with SBP between 140 and less than 220 mmHg to receive antihypertensive treatment or to discontinue all antihypertensive medications during hospitalization. A composite primary outcome of death and major disability and secondary outcomes were compared between treatment and control stratified by baseline SBP levels of less than 160, 160-179, and at least 180 mmHg. At 24 h after randomization, differences in SBP reductions were 8.8, 8.6 and 7.8 mmHg between the antihypertensive treatment and control groups among patients with baseline SBP less than 160, 160-179, and at least 180 mmHg, respectively (P baseline SBP subgroups on death (P = 0.02): odds ratio (95% CI) of 2.42 (0.74-7.89) in patients with baseline SBP less than 60 mmHg and 0.34 (0.11-1.09) in those with baseline SBP at least 180 mmHg. At the 3-month follow-up, the primary and secondary clinical outcomes were not significantly different between the treatment and control groups by baseline SBP levels. Early antihypertensive treatment had a neutral effect on clinical outcomes among acute ischemic stroke patients with various baseline SBP levels. Future clinical trials are warranted to test BP-lowering effects in acute ischemic stroke patients by baseline SBP levels. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01840072.

Review of carbon nanotube nanoelectronics and macroelectronics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Che, Yuchi; Chen, Haitian; Gui, Hui; Liu, Jia; Liu, Bilu; Zhou, Chongwu

2014-01-01

Carbon nanotubes have the potential to spur future development in electronics due to their unequalled electrical properties. In this article, we present a review on carbon nanotube-based circuits in terms of their electrical performance in two major directions: nanoelectronics and macroelectronics. In the nanoelectronics direction, we direct our discussion to the performance of aligned carbon nanotubes for digital circuits and circuits designed for radio-frequency applications. In the macroelectronics direction, we focus our attention on the performance of thin films of carbon nanotube random networks in digital circuits, display applications, and printed electronics. In the last part, we discuss the existing challenges and future directions of nanotube-based nano- and microelectronics. (invited review)

Impacts of Renewable Energy Quota System on China's Future Power Sector

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xiong, Weiming; Zhang, Da; Mischke, Peggy

2014-01-01

As the biggest carbon emitting sector which produces 44% of current national carbon emission in China, the coal-dominated power sector has a tremendous potential for CO2 mitigation in the next two decades. Renewable energy quota system is currently discussed as a potential future policy instrument...... for the power sector, which requires certain fraction of renewable energy in total power generation for each province and grid zone. The quantitative studies on renewable energy quota for China are still very limited. Based on a least-cost and technology-rich power generation and transmission expansion model...... for China, this study examines the impacts of renewable energy quota system and carbon cap policy instruments on the future Chinese power sector. Various scenarios are examined toward 2030 and their future power generation mix, capacity installations and carbon emission are discussed. This study concludes...

Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Applied to Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Flame-Retardant Coatings in Upholstery Textiles: A Case Study Presenting Priority Research Gaps for Future Risk Assessments (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

In September 2013, EPA announced the availability of the final report, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Applied to Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Flame-Retardant Coatings in Upholstery Textiles: A Case Study Presenting Priority Research Gaps for Future Risk Assessments...

Transportation Energy Futures: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brogan, J. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Aeppli, A. E. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Brown, D. F. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Fischer, M. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Grenzeback, L. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); McKenzie, E. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vyas, A. D. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Witzke, E. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)

2013-03-01

Freight transportation modes—truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline—each serve a distinct share of the freight transportation market. A variety of factors influence the modes chosen by shippers, carriers, and others involved in freight supply chains. Analytical methods can be used to project future modal shares, and federal policy actions could influence future freight mode choices. This report considers how these topics have been addressed in existing literature and offers insights on federal policy decisions with the potential to prompt mode choices that reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James Hansen

Full Text Available We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J; Hearty, Paul J; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C

2013-01-01

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Demotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille;

FutureGen Project Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cabe, Jim; Elliott, Mike

2010-09-30

This report summarizes the comprehensive siting, permitting, engineering, design, and costing activities completed by the FutureGen Industrial Alliance, the Department of Energy, and associated supporting subcontractors to develop a first of a kind near zero emissions integrated gasification combined cycle power plant and carbon capture and storage project (IGCC-CCS). With the goal to design, build, and reliably operate the first IGCC-CCS facility, FutureGen would have been the lowest emitting pulverized coal power plant in the world, while providing a timely and relevant basis for coal combustion power plants deploying carbon capture in the future. The content of this report summarizes key findings and results of applicable project evaluations; modeling, design, and engineering assessments; cost estimate reports; and schedule and risk mitigation from initiation of the FutureGen project through final flow sheet analyses including capital and operating reports completed under DOE award DE-FE0000587. This project report necessarily builds upon previously completed siting, design, and development work executed under DOE award DE-FC26- 06NT4207 which included the siting process; environmental permitting, compliance, and mitigation under the National Environmental Policy Act; and development of conceptual and design basis documentation for the FutureGen plant. For completeness, the report includes as attachments the siting and design basis documents, as well as the source documentation for the following: • Site evaluation and selection process and environmental characterization • Underground Injection Control (UIC) Permit Application including well design and subsurface modeling • FutureGen IGCC-CCS Design Basis Document • Process evaluations and technology selection via Illinois Clean Coal Review Board Technical Report • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance for slurry-fed gasifier configuration • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance

States and carbon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Criqui, Patrick; Faraco, Benoit; Grandjean, Alain

2009-01-01

The climate challenge appeals to an unprecedented mutation of our societies. From north to south, all our life styles will have to be changed from dwelling, to transport and feeding. These changes will have sense only at a worldwide scale and will impact our way of development. How can we reduce our energy consumption and greenhouse impact with answering everyone's essential needs at the same time? How can we invent a carbon-free economy in the North and preserve the big socio-economical equilibria at the same time? How can we get rid of poverty in the South without compromising the well-being of the future generations with an increase of CO 2 emissions? Such difficulties cannot be overcome without innovations in terms of public policies. This book takes stock of the new possible instruments and policies at the global scale and involving fiscality, standards, investments and social justice. Content: 1 - the carbon threat: a changing climate and energies becoming scarce (the climate threat, an increasing energy insecurity); carbon and modern economy (human greenhouse gas emissions, a carbon-free well-being); governments and carbon control (a global challenge requiring an international control, the experiments era from Rio to the present day, the challenge of the state in front of the carbon threat); 2 - the political instruments of environment: standards as first instruments of climate public policies (standards efficiency in some sectors, standards limitations, standards and innovation); emissions quotas and market instruments (Kyoto protocol and CO 2 market, the future of 'cap and trade' and of individual and regional quotas); carbon tax, fiscal instruments and new regulations (carbon tax as an alternative or a complement, other fiscal and para-fiscal instruments, new regulation instruments); investing in climate (managing the transition, governments as transition administrators). (J.S)

40 CFR 1042.825 - Baseline determination.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Baseline determination. 1042.825... Provisions for Remanufactured Marine Engines § 1042.825 Baseline determination. (a) For the purpose of this... not valid. (f) Use good engineering judgment for all aspects of the baseline determination. We may...

Oscillation Baselining and Analysis Tool

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2017-03-27

PNNL developed a new tool for oscillation analysis and baselining. This tool has been developed under a new DOE Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC) Project (GM0072 - “Suite of open-source applications and models for advanced synchrophasor analysis”) and it is based on the open platform for PMU analysis. The Oscillation Baselining and Analysis Tool (OBAT) performs the oscillation analysis and identifies modes of oscillations (frequency, damping, energy, and shape). The tool also does oscillation event baselining (fining correlation between oscillations characteristics and system operating conditions).

Exploring the potential of short-baseline physics at Fermilab

Science.gov (United States)

Miranda, O. G.; Pasquini, Pedro; Tórtola, M.; Valle, J. W. F.

2018-05-01

We study the capabilities of the short-baseline neutrino program at Fermilab to probe the unitarity of the lepton mixing matrix. We find the sensitivity to be slightly better than the current one. Motivated by the future DUNE experiment, we have also analyzed the potential of an extra liquid Argon near detector in the LBNF beamline. Adding such a near detector to the DUNE setup will substantially improve the current sensitivity on nonunitarity. This would help to remove C P degeneracies due to the new complex phase present in the neutrino mixing matrix. We also study the sensitivity of our proposed setup to light sterile neutrinos for various configurations.

Achieving CO2 reductions in Colombia: Effects of carbon taxes and abatement targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calderón, Silvia; Alvarez, Andrés Camilo; Loboguerrero, Ana María; Arango, Santiago; Calvin, Katherine; Kober, Tom; Daenzer, Kathryn; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

2016-01-01

In this paper we investigate CO 2 emission scenarios for Colombia and the effects of implementing carbon taxes and abatement targets on the energy system. By comparing baseline and policy scenario results from two integrated assessment partial equilibrium models TIAM-ECN and GCAM and two general equilibrium models Phoenix and MEG4C, we provide an indication of future developments and dynamics in the Colombian energy system. Currently, the carbon intensity of the energy system in Colombia is low compared to other countries in Latin America. However, this trend may change given the projected rapid growth of the economy and the potential increase in the use of carbon-based technologies. Climate policy in Colombia is under development and has yet to consider economic instruments such as taxes and abatement targets. This paper shows how taxes or abatement targets can achieve significant CO 2 reductions in Colombia. Though abatement may be achieved through different pathways, taxes and targets promote the entry of cleaner energy sources into the market and reduce final energy demand through energy efficiency improvements and other demand-side responses. The electric power sector plays an important role in achieving CO 2 emission reductions in Colombia, through the increase of hydropower, the introduction of wind technologies, and the deployment of biomass, coal and natural gas with CO 2 capture and storage (CCS). Uncertainty over the prevailing mitigation pathway reinforces the importance of climate policy to guide sectors toward low-carbon technologies. This paper also assesses the economy-wide implications of mitigation policies such as potential losses in GDP and consumption. An assessment of the legal, institutional, social and environmental barriers to economy-wide mitigation policies is critical yet beyond the scope of this paper. - Highlights: • Four energy and economy-wide models under carbon mitigation scenarios are compared. • Baseline results show that CO

The Economic Implications of Introducing Carbon Taxes in South Africa

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arndt, Thomas Channing

2014-01-01

carbon adjustments. Results indicate that a phased-in carbon tax of US$30 per ton of CO2 can achieve national emissions reductions targets set for 2025. Relative to a baseline with free disposal of CO2, constant world prices and no change in trading partner behavior, the preferred tax scenario reduces......South Africa is considering introducing a carbon tax to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Following a discussion of the motivations for considering a carbon tax, we evaluate potential impacts using a dynamic economywide model linked to an energy sector model including a detailed evaluation of border...

A General Methodology for Evaluation of Carbon Sequestration Activities and Carbon Credits

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klasson, KT

2002-12-23

A general methodology was developed for evaluation of carbon sequestration technologies. In this document, we provide a method that is quantitative, but is structured to give qualitative comparisons despite changes in detailed method parameters, i.e., it does not matter what ''grade'' a sequestration technology gets but a ''better'' technology should receive a better grade. To meet these objectives, we developed and elaborate on the following concepts: (1) All resources used in a sequestration activity should be reviewed by estimating the amount of greenhouse gas emissions for which they historically are responsible. We have done this by introducing a quantifier we term Full-Cycle Carbon Emissions, which is tied to the resource. (2) The future fate of sequestered carbon should be included in technology evaluations. We have addressed this by introducing a variable called Time-adjusted Value of Carbon Sequestration to weigh potential future releases of carbon, escaping the sequestered form. (3) The Figure of Merit of a sequestration technology should address the entire life-cycle of an activity. The figures of merit we have developed relate the investment made (carbon release during the construction phase) to the life-time sequestration capacity of the activity. To account for carbon flows that occur during different times of an activity we incorporate the Time Value of Carbon Flows. The methodology we have developed can be expanded to include financial, social, and long-term environmental aspects of a sequestration technology implementation. It does not rely on global atmospheric modeling efforts but is consistent with these efforts and could be combined with them.

Preparation and characterization of carbon/SiC nanowire/Na-doped carbonated hydroxyapatite multilayer coating for carbon/carbon composites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leilei, Zhang; Hejun, Li; Kezhi, Li; Shouyang, Zhang; Qiangang, Fu; Yulei, Zhang; Jinhua, Lu; Wei, Li

2014-01-01

Highlights: • CSH coatings were prepared by combination of magnetron sputter ion plating, CVD and UECD. • Na + and CO 3 2− were developed to co-substitute hydroxyapatite. • SiC nanowires were introduced into Na-doped carbonated hydroxyapatite. • CSH coatings showed excellent cell activity and cell proliferation behavior. - Abstract: A carbon/SiC nanowire/Na-doped carbonated hydroxyapatite multilayer coating (CSH coating) was prepared on carbon/carbon composites using a combination method of magnetron sputter ion plating, chemical vapor deposition and ultrasound-assisted electrochemical deposition procedure. The morphology, microstructure and chemical composition of the coating were investigated by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), Raman spectroscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The results showed that the CSH coating was consisted of three components: carbon layer, SiC nanowires and Na-doped carbonated hydroxyapatite. The carbon layer provided a dense and uniform surface structure for the growth of SiC nanowires. The SiC nanowires exhibited a porous structure, favoring the infiltration of Na-doped carbonated hydroxyapatite crystals. The Na-doped carbonated hydroxyapatite could infiltrate into the pores of SiC nanowires and finally cover the SiC nanowires entirely with a needle shape. The osteoblast-like MG63 cells were employed to assess the in vitro biocompatibility of the CSH coating. The MG63 cells favorably spread and grew well across the CSH coating surface with plenty of filopods and microvilli, exhibiting excellent cell activity. Moreover, the CSH coating elicited higher cell proliferation as compared to bare carbon/carbon composites. In conclusion, the CSH offers great potential as a coating material for future medical application in hard tissue replacement

Preparation and characterization of carbon/SiC nanowire/Na-doped carbonated hydroxyapatite multilayer coating for carbon/carbon composites

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leilei, Zhang, E-mail: zhangleilei1121@aliyun.com; Hejun, Li; Kezhi, Li; Shouyang, Zhang; Qiangang, Fu; Yulei, Zhang; Jinhua, Lu; Wei, Li

2014-09-15

Highlights: • CSH coatings were prepared by combination of magnetron sputter ion plating, CVD and UECD. • Na{sup +} and CO{sub 3}{sup 2−} were developed to co-substitute hydroxyapatite. • SiC nanowires were introduced into Na-doped carbonated hydroxyapatite. • CSH coatings showed excellent cell activity and cell proliferation behavior. - Abstract: A carbon/SiC nanowire/Na-doped carbonated hydroxyapatite multilayer coating (CSH coating) was prepared on carbon/carbon composites using a combination method of magnetron sputter ion plating, chemical vapor deposition and ultrasound-assisted electrochemical deposition procedure. The morphology, microstructure and chemical composition of the coating were investigated by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), Raman spectroscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The results showed that the CSH coating was consisted of three components: carbon layer, SiC nanowires and Na-doped carbonated hydroxyapatite. The carbon layer provided a dense and uniform surface structure for the growth of SiC nanowires. The SiC nanowires exhibited a porous structure, favoring the infiltration of Na-doped carbonated hydroxyapatite crystals. The Na-doped carbonated hydroxyapatite could infiltrate into the pores of SiC nanowires and finally cover the SiC nanowires entirely with a needle shape. The osteoblast-like MG63 cells were employed to assess the in vitro biocompatibility of the CSH coating. The MG63 cells favorably spread and grew well across the CSH coating surface with plenty of filopods and microvilli, exhibiting excellent cell activity. Moreover, the CSH coating elicited higher cell proliferation as compared to bare carbon/carbon composites. In conclusion, the CSH offers great potential as a coating material for future medical application in hard tissue replacement.

Challenges for present and future estimates of anthropogenic carbon in the Indian Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Goyet, C.; Touratier, F.

One of the main challenges we face today is to determine the evolution of the penetration of anthropogenic CO2 into the Indian Ocean and its impacts on marine and human life. Anthropogenic CO2 reaches the ocean via air-sea interactions as well as riverine inputs. It is then stored in the ocean and follows the oceanic circulation. As the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere penetrates into the sea, it reacts with water and acidifies the ocean. Consequently, the whole marine ecosystem is perturbed, thus potentially affecting the food web, which has, in turn, a direct impact on seafood supply for humans. Naturally, this will mainly affect the growing number of people living in coastal areas. Although anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean is identical with natural CO2 and therefore cannot be detected alone, many approaches are available today to estimate it. Since most of the results of these methods are globally in agreement, here we chose one of these methods, the tracer using oxygen, total inorganic carbon, and total alkalinity (TrOCA) approach, to compute the 3-D distribution of the anthropogenic CO2 concentrations throughout the Indian Ocean. The results of this distribution clearly illustrate the contrast between the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. They further show the importance of the southern part of this ocean that carries some anthropogenic CO2 at great depths. In order to determine the future anthropogenic impacts on the Indian Ocean, it is urgent and necessary to understand the present state. As the seawater temperature increases, how and how fast will the ocean circulation change? What will the impacts on seawater properties be? Many people are living on the bordering coasts, how will they be affected?

33 CFR 2.20 - Territorial sea baseline.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Territorial sea baseline. 2.20... JURISDICTION Jurisdictional Terms § 2.20 Territorial sea baseline. Territorial sea baseline means the line.... Normally, the territorial sea baseline is the mean low water line along the coast of the United States...

Cryogenics Testbed Laboratory Flange Baseline Configuration

Science.gov (United States)

Acuna, Marie Lei Ysabel D.

2013-01-01

As an intern at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), I was involved in research for the Fluids and Propulsion Division of the NASA Engineering (NE) Directorate. I was immersed in the Integrated Ground Operations Demonstration Units (IGODU) project for the majority of my time at KSC, primarily with the Ground Operations Demonstration Unit Liquid Oxygen (GODU L02) branch of IGODU. This project was established to develop advancements in cryogenic systems as a part of KSC's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program. The vision of AES is to develop new approaches for human exploration, and operations in and beyond low Earth orbit. Advanced cryogenic systems are crucial to minimize the consumable losses of cryogenic propellants, develop higher performance launch vehicles, and decrease operations cost for future launch programs. During my internship, I conducted a flange torque tracking study that established a baseline configuration for the flanges in the Simulated Propellant Loading System (SPLS) at the KSC Cryogenics Test Laboratory (CTL) - the testing environment for GODU L02.

Carbon Dynamics in Heathlands in Response to a Changing Climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Pia Lund

Climate is changing, and more adverse changes are expected in the future. Changes, caused by continuously rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses as CO2, will affect ecosystem processes and functions in the future and hence the cycling of carbon. The vaste amount of studies have...... layers showed much slower decomposition than fine root from top layer. Higher roots biomass and allocation of carbon deeper down in the soil profile in response to elevated CO2 combined with the slower decomposition of deep roots could affect future carbon cycling, but soil carbon sequestration depends...... focused on effects of climate change on aboveground biomass, less have been conducted on belowground biomass, and the thesis is one of few studies comprising both above- and belowground biomass and take interactions of climate change factors into account. To follow the fate of carbon in the ecosystem we...

Environmental challenges and opportunities of the evolving North American electricity market : Estimating future air pollution from new electric power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, P.; Patterson, Z.; Vaughan, S.

2002-06-01

A significant source of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in North America is a direct result of the generation of electricity from the combustion of fossil fuels. An attempt at estimating the future emissions of four key pollutants from the electricity generation sector in North America was made by the authors in this paper. They based their estimates on projections of future electricity generation capacity changes. They looked at new power plant projects in North America, as well as the expected changes in emissions as a result of these projects compared to the historical data originating from power plant emissions in the recent past. Both the local context and the national level were examined. Nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, mercury, and carbon dioxide, all arising from the combustion of fossil fuels, were considered in this paper. Ground level ozone, or smog results from nitrogen oxides. Acidic deposition, also called acid rain, is caused in part by both nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide, as is fine particles in the atmosphere linked to lung damage and premature death. Fish consumption advisories were issued due to the levels of toxic mercury deposited in lakes and streams. Global climate change is caused in part to the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. Air quality and climate change will both be impacted by the future evolution of the electricity generation sector in an integrated North American energy market. The authors attempted to provide a baseline of air emissions from that sector in North America for a common reference year, enabling the tracking of changes in emissions patterns in the future. A reference case inventory for the four pollutants was estimated, followed by the development of two boundary cases estimating future emissions in 2007. refs., 22 tabs

Carbon finance options in renewable energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nahar, P.

2010-01-01

The Kyoto Protocol splits the world into two categories, notably Annex 1 with binding targets; and non-Annex 1 without any binding targets. This presentation discussed the Kyoto Protocol, with particular reference to the flexibility mechanisms which allow countries to achieve their emission targets in a cost effective way through emission trading, joint implementation, or clean development mechanisms (CDM). The CDM was outlined in detail in terms of how it works. The CDM key concepts include baseline use, additionality, and monitoring. Reasons for risk and CDM renewable energy projects were also outlined. Other topics that were presented included the impact of carbon finance; United States federal climate policy; European Union policy; EVO structured carbon; portfolio management; and EVO structured carbon. tabs., figs.

Program Baseline Change Control Board charter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-02-01

The purpose of this Charter is to establish the Program Baseline Change Control Board (PBCCB) for the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) Program, and to describe its organization, responsibilities, and basic methods of operation. Guidance for implementing this Charter is provided by the OCRWM Baseline Management Plan (BMP) and OCRWM Program Baseline Change Control Procedure

Regional impacts of climate change and atmospheric CO2 on future ocean carbon uptake: A multi-model linear feedback analysis

OpenAIRE

Roy Tilla; Bopp Laurent; Gehlen Marion; Schneider Birgitt; Cadule Patricia; Frölicher Thomas; Segschneider Jochen; Tijputra Jerry; Heinze Christoph; Joos Fortunat

2011-01-01

The increase in atmospheric CO2 over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air–sea CO2 uptake which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO2 itself and climate change. Here the future oceanic CO2 uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate–carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO2 emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully sep...

Carbon concentrations and carbon pool distributions in dry, moist, and cold mid-aged forests of the Rocky Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Theresa B. Jain; Russell T. Graham; David Adams

2010-01-01

Although "carbon” management may not be a primary objective in forest management, influencing the distribution, composition, growth, and development of biomass to fulfill multiple objectives is; therefore, given a changing climate, managing carbon could influence future management decisions. Also, typically, the conversion from total biomass to total carbon is 50...

Urban warming reduces aboveground carbon storage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Meineke, Emily; Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dunn, Robert Roberdeau

2016-01-01

sequestration (carbon stored per year) of mature trees. Urban warming increased herbivorous arthropod abundance on trees, but these herbivores had negligible effects on tree carbon sequestration. Instead, urban warming was associated with an estimated 12% loss of carbon sequestration, in part because...... photosynthesis was reduced at hotter sites. Ecosystem service assessments that do not consider urban conditions may overestimate urban tree carbon storage. Because urban and global warming are becoming more intense, our results suggest that urban trees will sequester even less carbon in the future....

Establishing a store baseline during interim storage of waste packages and a review of potential technologies for base-lining

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McTeer, Jennifer; Morris, Jenny; Wickham, Stephen [Galson Sciences Ltd. Oakham, Rutland (United Kingdom); Bolton, Gary [National Nuclear Laboratory Risley, Warrington (United Kingdom); McKinney, James; Morris, Darrell [Nuclear Decommissioning Authority Moor Row, Cumbria (United Kingdom); Angus, Mike [National Nuclear Laboratory Risley, Warrington (United Kingdom); Cann, Gavin; Binks, Tracey [National Nuclear Laboratory Sellafield (United Kingdom)

2013-07-01

Interim storage is an essential component of the waste management lifecycle, providing a safe, secure environment for waste packages awaiting final disposal. In order to be able to monitor and detect change or degradation of the waste packages, storage building or equipment, it is necessary to know the original condition of these components (the 'waste storage system'). This paper presents an approach to establishing the baseline for a waste-storage system, and provides guidance on the selection and implementation of potential base-lining technologies. The approach is made up of two sections; assessment of base-lining needs and definition of base-lining approach. During the assessment of base-lining needs a review of available monitoring data and store/package records should be undertaken (if the store is operational). Evolutionary processes (affecting safety functions), and their corresponding indicators, that can be measured to provide a baseline for the waste-storage system should then be identified in order for the most suitable indicators to be selected for base-lining. In defining the approach, identification of opportunities to collect data and constraints is undertaken before selecting the techniques for base-lining and developing a base-lining plan. Base-lining data may be used to establish that the state of the packages is consistent with the waste acceptance criteria for the storage facility and to support the interpretation of monitoring and inspection data collected during store operations. Opportunities and constraints are identified for different store and package types. Technologies that could potentially be used to measure baseline indicators are also reviewed. (authors)

Progressing towards post-2012 carbon markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soeren Luetken, S.; Holm Olsen, K.

2011-11-15

Confronting the end of the first Kyoto Commitment period in 2012 with no agreed outcome for global cooperation on future emission reductions, there is an urgent need to look for new opportunities for public and private cooperation to drive broad-based progress in living standards and keep projected future warming below the politically agreed 2 degrees Celsius. Responding jointly to these global challenges the United Nations environmental Program (UNEP) and its UNEP Risoe Centre (URC) have in cooperation with the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) prepared the Perspectives 2011. The publication focuses on the role of carbon markets in contributing to low carbon development and new mechanisms for green growth, as one core area of action to address the challenges noted above. The publication explores in ten articles, how carbon markets at national, regional and global levels can be developed and up-scaled to sustain the involvement of the private sector in leveraging finance and innovative solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The titles of the ten articles are: 1) Fragmentation of international climate policy - doom or boom for carbon markets?; 2) Perspectives on the EU carbon market; 3) China carbon market; 4) The national context of U.S. state policies for a global commons problem; 5) Mind the gap - the state-of-play of Canadian greenhouse gas mitigation; 6) Role of the UN and multilateral policies in integrating an increasingly fragmented global carbon market; 7) Making CDM work for poor and rich Africa beyond 2012 - a series of dos and don'ts; 8) Voluntary market - future perspectives; 9) Sectoral approaches as a way forward for the carbon market?; 10) The Durban outcome - a post 2012 framework approach for green house gas markets. (LN)

Progressing towards post-2012 carbon markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soeren Luetken, S; Holm Olsen, K

2011-11-15

Confronting the end of the first Kyoto Commitment period in 2012 with no agreed outcome for global cooperation on future emission reductions, there is an urgent need to look for new opportunities for public and private cooperation to drive broad-based progress in living standards and keep projected future warming below the politically agreed 2 degrees Celsius. Responding jointly to these global challenges the United Nations environmental Program (UNEP) and its UNEP Risoe Centre (URC) have in cooperation with the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) prepared the Perspectives 2011. The publication focuses on the role of carbon markets in contributing to low carbon development and new mechanisms for green growth, as one core area of action to address the challenges noted above. The publication explores in ten articles, how carbon markets at national, regional and global levels can be developed and up-scaled to sustain the involvement of the private sector in leveraging finance and innovative solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The titles of the ten articles are: 1) Fragmentation of international climate policy - doom or boom for carbon markets?; 2) Perspectives on the EU carbon market; 3) China carbon market; 4) The national context of U.S. state policies for a global commons problem; 5) Mind the gap - the state-of-play of Canadian greenhouse gas mitigation; 6) Role of the UN and multilateral policies in integrating an increasingly fragmented global carbon market; 7) Making CDM work for poor and rich Africa beyond 2012 - a series of dos and don'ts; 8) Voluntary market - future perspectives; 9) Sectoral approaches as a way forward for the carbon market?; 10) The Durban outcome - a post 2012 framework approach for green house gas markets. (LN)

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) based advanced dermal therapeutics: current trends and future potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuche, Kaushik; Maheshwari, Rahul; Tambe, Vishakha; Mak, Kit-Kay; Jogi, Hardi; Raval, Nidhi; Pichika, Mallikarjuna Rao; Kumar Tekade, Rakesh

2018-05-17

The search for effective and non-invasive delivery modules to transport therapeutic molecules across skin has led to the discovery of a number of nanocarriers (viz.: liposomes, ethosomes, dendrimers, etc.) in the last few decades. However, available literature suggests that these delivery modules face several issues including poor stability, low encapsulation efficiency, and scale-up hurdles. Recently, carbon nanotubes (CNTs) emerged as a versatile tool to deliver therapeutics across skin. Superior stability, high loading capacity, well-developed synthesis protocol as well as ease of scale-up are some of the reason for growing interest in CNTs. CNTs have a unique physical architecture and a large surface area with unique surface chemistry that can be tailored for vivid biomedical applications. CNTs have been thus largely engaged in the development of transdermal systems such as tuneable hydrogels, programmable nonporous membranes, electroresponsive skin modalities, protein channel mimetic platforms, reverse iontophoresis, microneedles, and dermal buckypapers. In addition, CNTs were also employed in the development of RNA interference (RNAi) based therapeutics for correcting defective dermal genes. This review expounds the state-of-art synthesis methodologies, skin penetration mechanism, drug liberation profile, loading potential, characterization techniques, and transdermal applications along with a summary on patent/regulatory status and future scope of CNT based skin therapeutics.

The Australian coal industry: now, and the future under carbon dioxide emission restrictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cain, D.A.

1990-01-01

Coal produces more carbon dioxide per unit of combustion energy than other fossil fuels. Therefore, reducing coal consumption is commonly advocated as one way to control greenhouse gas emissions and hence predicted global warming. Australia is highly dependent on coal, both as a primary energy source and as a major export commodity. Action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by substantially decreasing coal consumption would have a very serious impact on the Australian coal industry and the Australian economy. Australia's dependence on coal and the potential conflict between the objective of further processing Australia's mineral exports and calls to limit carbon dioxide emissions is described. The effect on coal consumption of one scenario for reducing Australia's carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation and possible effects of global carbon dioxide emission reductions on world coal trade are discussed. 24 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs

Portfolio assessments for future generation investment in newly industrializing countries – A case study of Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

2012-01-01

This paper assesses future electricity generation portfolios in Thailand in 2030 given uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing policies, electricity demand, and capital costs. Thailand faces challenges for generation investment given its rapid socio-economic progress and fast growing demand. A novel generation investment and planning decision-support tool which incorporates a Monte Carlo extension to conventional optimal generation mix methods combined with portfolio-based analysis techniques, is used. The tool can formally assess tradeoffs between expected future generation costs, cost uncertainties, and CO 2 emissions for the range of different generation portfolios. Results highlight that different levels of future carbon pricing will have significant impacts on the most appropriate generation portfolios. The impact of carbon pricing, however, is not on the appropriate proportion of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) in the mix but, instead, on the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. Compared with the current proposed 2030 generation mix, it is possible that there are other generation portfolios that offer lower expected costs, cost uncertainty, and CO 2 emissions depending on future carbon pricing. Results suggest that this investment decision-support approach may have value for electric utilities and policy-makers contemplating significant generation investments under high future uncertainty and conflicting policy objectives. -- Highlights: ► Assess Thailand's future generation portfolios in 2030 under uncertainties. ► Future carbon prices have significant impacts on the appropriate generation mixes. ► Carbon pricing affects the future role of coal versus nuclear in Thailand. ► There may be more appropriate alternatives than the proposed 2030 generation mix. ► This decision-support approach has value for utility and policy decision-making.

Soil carbon under perennial pastures; benchmarking the influence of pasture age and management

Science.gov (United States)

Orgill, Susan E.; Spoljaric, Nancy; Kelly, Georgina

2015-07-01

This paper reports baseline soil carbon stocks from a field survey of 19 sites; 8 pairs/triplet in the Monaro region of New South Wales. Site comparisons were selected by the Monaro Farming Systems group to demonstrate the influence of land management on soil carbon, and included: nutrient management, liming, pasture age and cropping history. Soil carbon stocks varied with parent material and with land management. The fertilised (phosphorus) native perennial pasture had a greater stock of soil carbon compared with the unfertilised site; 46.8 vs 40.4 Mg.C.ha to 0.50 m. However, the introduced perennial pasture which had been limed had a lower stock of soil carbon compared with the unlimed site; 62.8 vs 66.7 Mg.C.ha to 0.50 m. There was a greater stock of soil carbon under two of the three younger (35 yr old) pastures. Cropped sites did not have lower soil carbon stocks at all sites; however, this survey was conducted after three years of above average annual rainfall and most sites had been cropped for less than three years. At all sites more than 20% of the total carbon stock to 0.50 m was in the 0.30 to 0.50 m soil layer highlighting the importance of considering this soil layer when investigating the implications of land management on soil carbon. Our baseline data indicates that nutrient management may increase soil carbon under perennial pastures and highlights the importance of perennial pastures for soil carbon sequestration regardless of age.

City Blueprints: Baseline Assessments of Sustainable Water Management in 11 Cities of the Future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Leeuwen, C.J.

2013-01-01

The necessity of Urban Water Cycle Services (UWCS) adapting to future stresses calls for changes that take sustainability into account. Megatrends (e.g. population growth, water scarcity, pollution and climate change) pose urgent water challenges in cities. In a previous paper, a set of indicators,

Closing the Knowledge Gap: Effects of Land Use Conversion on Belowground Carbon near the 100th Meridian

Science.gov (United States)

Waldron, S. E.; Phillips, R. L.; Dell, R.; Suddick, E. C.

2012-12-01

Native prairie of the northern Great Plains near the 100th meridian is currently under land use conversion pressure due to high commodity prices. From 2002 to 2007, approximately 303,515 hectares of prairie were converted to crop production in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) from Montana to the Dakotas. The spatiotemporal effects of land-use conversion on soil organic matter are still unclear for the PPR. Effects will vary with management, soil properties and time, making regional experiments and simulation modeling necessary. Grassland conservationists are interested in soil carbon data and soil carbon simulation models to inform potential voluntary carbon credit programs. These programs require quantification of changes in soil carbon associated with land-use conversion and management. We addressed this issue by 1) designing a regional-scale experiment, 2) collecting and analyzing soil data, and 3) interviewing producers about land management practices, as required for regional, process-based biogeochemical models. We selected farms at random within a 29,000 km2 area of interest and measured soil properties at multiple depths for native prairie and adjacent annual crop fields. The cores were processed at six different depths (between 0 and 100 cm) for bulk density, pH, texture, total carbon, inorganic carbon, and total nitrogen. We found that the largest difference in soil organic carbon occurred at the 0-10 cm depth, but the magnitude of the effect of land use varied with soil properties and land management. Results from this project, coupled with regional model simulations (Denitrification-Decomposition, DNDC) represent the baseline data needed for future voluntary carbon credit programs and long-term carbon monitoring networks. Enrollment in such programs could help ranchers and farmers realize a new income stream from maintaining their native prairie and the carbon stored beneath it.

Feedback mechanisms in the climate system affecting future levels of carbon dioxide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kellogg, W.W.

1983-01-01

The rate of increase of concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on the consumption of fossil fuels (the major source of 'new' carbon dioxide) and the natural sinks for this trace constituent, primarily the oceans and the biosphere. (It is now fairly well established that the biosphere cannot be a major source, as has been claimed.) The rate of operation of these sinks depends on several factors determined by the state of the climate system, and they will therefore presumably change as the greenhouse effect of increasing carbon dioxide warms the earth. Five specific feedback loops are discussed, two of which are positive (amplifying the rate of increase), two are weakly negative (damping the rate of increase), and one is indeterminate but probably positive. It is concluded that it would be well to be prepared for the possibility that carbon dioxide may increase faster than predicted by models based on the current or past state of the climate system

The global carbon budget 1959–2011

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Le Quéré

2013-05-01

compared to the 2002–2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that EFF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9–3.5% in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future. All data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_V2013.

'Capture ready' regulation of fossil fuel power plants - Betting the UK's carbon emissions on promises of future technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markusson, Nils; Haszeldine, Stuart

2010-01-01

Climate change legislation requires emissions reductions, but the market shows interest in investing in new fossil fuelled power plants. The question is whether capture ready policy can reconcile these interests. The term 'capture ready' has been used a few years by the UK Government when granting licences for fossil fuelled power plants, but only recently has the meaning of the term been defined. The policy has been promoted as a step towards CCS and as an insurance against carbon lock-in. This paper draws on literature on technology lock-in and on regulation of technology undergoing development. Further, versions of the capture readiness concept proposed to date are compared. Capture readiness requirements beyond the minimum criterion of space on the site for capture operations are explored. This includes integration of capture and power plant, downstream operations, overall system integration and regulation of future retrofitting. Capture readiness comes with serious uncertainties and is no guarantee that new-built fossil plants will be abatable or abated in the future. As a regulatory strategy, it has been over-promised in the UK.

Hot atom chemistry of carbon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wolf, A.P.

1975-01-01

The chemistry of energetic carbon atoms is discussed. The experimental approach to studies that have been carried out is described and the mechanistic framework of hot carbon atom reactions is considered in some detail. Finally, the direction that future work might take is examined, including the relationship of experimental to theoretical work. (author)

Molecular investigations into a globally important carbon pool: permafrost-protected carbon in Alaskan soils

Science.gov (United States)

M.P. Waldrop; K.P. Wickland; R. White; A.A. Berhe; J.W. Harden; V.E. Romanovsky

2010-01-01

The fate of carbon (C) contained within permafrost in boreal forest environments is an important consideration for the current and future carbon cycle as soils warm in northern latitudes. Currently, little is known about the microbiology or chemistry of permafrost soils that may affect its decomposition once soils thaw. We tested the hypothesis that low microbial...

Hazard Baseline Downgrade Effluent Treatment Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanchard, A.

1998-01-01

This Hazard Baseline Downgrade reviews the Effluent Treatment Facility, in accordance with Department of Energy Order 5480.23, WSRC11Q Facility Safety Document Manual, DOE-STD-1027-92, and DOE-EM-STD-5502-94. It provides a baseline grouping based on the chemical and radiological hazards associated with the facility. The Determination of the baseline grouping for ETF will aid in establishing the appropriate set of standards for the facility

Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

2013-01-01

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels. PMID:24312568

Synthesis, performance and regeneration of carbon membranes for biogas upgrading - a future energy carrier

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lie, Jon Arvid

2005-07-01

The focus of the current work was to find a low-cost precursor for carbon molecular sieve (CMS) membranes for biogas upgrading (i.e. CO{sub 2}/CH{sub 4} separation to meet vehicle fuel criteria), and a simple way of producing them. Wood pulp from spruce and pine containing a majority of cellulose resulted in carbons with CO{sub 2}/CH{sub 4} separation performance at the same level as those derived from specialty polymers like polyimides. Pulp has the advantage of being widespread and cheap. Cellulose hydrolysis with trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), that is gentle enough to preserve the monosaccharides, provided an anticipative route to carbon membrane formation. Increasing the hydrolysis time, resulted in reduced weight loss during carbonization, and better separation performance for the gas pair CO{sub 2}/CH{sub 4}. The results indicated that furans are a key intermediate in forming microporosity with high separation performance. For the separation of CO2 from CH{sub 4} the optimum carbon formation temperature seemed to be near 650{sup d}eg C (single gas tests at 30{sup d}eg C and 2 bar feed pressure). In addition, several ways of modifying a carbon material are described. The modification method used in this study was metal doping of carbon. CMS membranes were formed by vacuum carbonization of hydrolyzed cellulose and metal loaded hydrolyzed cellulose. Metal additives include oxides of Ca, Mg, Fe(III) and Si, and nitrates of Ag, Cu and Fe(III). The carbon membrane containing Fe-nitrate has promising separation performance for the gas pairs 02/N2 and CO{sub 2}/CH{sub 4}. The CO{sub 2}/CH{sub 4} selectivity was typically larger than 100, with a CO2 permeability of about 300 Barrer (single gas tests). Carbon containing nitrates of Cu or Ag showed high selectivity, but reduced 02 and CO2 permeability compared to carbon with Fe-nitrate. Element analysis indicated that Cu migrates to the carbon surface, creating an extra layer resistance to gas transport. A silver mirror

Poor Baseline Pulmonary Function May Not Increase the Risk of Radiation-Induced Lung Toxicity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Jingbo [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan/Ann Arbor Veterans Health System, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academic Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Cao, Jianzhong [Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academic Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Yuan, Shuanghu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan/Ann Arbor Veterans Health System, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Ji, Wei [Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academic Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Arenberg, Douglas [Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan/Ann Arbor Veterans Health System, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Dai, Jianrong [Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academic Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Stanton, Paul; Tatro, Daniel; Ten Haken, Randall K. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan/Ann Arbor Veterans Health System, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Wang, Luhua, E-mail: wlhwq@yahoo.com [Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academic Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Kong, Feng-Ming, E-mail: fengkong@med.umich.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan/Ann Arbor Veterans Health System, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States)

2013-03-01

Purpose: Poor pulmonary function (PF) is often considered a contraindication to definitive radiation therapy for lung cancer. This study investigated whether baseline PF was associated with radiation-induced lung toxicity (RILT) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) receiving conformal radiation therapy (CRT). Methods and Materials: NSCLC patients treated with CRT and tested for PF at baseline were eligible. Baseline predicted values of forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and diffusion capacity of lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) were analyzed. Additional factors included age, gender, smoking status, Karnofsky performance status, coexisting chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), tumor location, histology, concurrent chemotherapy, radiation dose, and mean lung dose (MLD) were evaluated for RILT. The primary endpoint was symptomatic RILT (SRILT), including grade ≥2 radiation pneumonitis and fibrosis. Results: There was a total of 260 patients, and SRILT occurred in 58 (22.3%) of them. Mean FEV1 values for SRILT and non-SRILT patients were 71.7% and 65.9% (P=.077). Under univariate analysis, risk of SRILT increased with MLD (P=.008), the absence of COPD (P=.047), and FEV1 (P=.077). Age (65 split) and MLD were significantly associated with SRILT in multivariate analysis. The addition of FEV1 and age with the MLD-based model slightly improved the predictability of SRILT (area under curve from 0.63-0.70, P=.088). Conclusions: Poor baseline PF does not increase the risk of SRILT, and combining FEV1, age, and MLD may improve the predictive ability.

Engineering carbon nanomaterials for future applications: energy and bio-sensor

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Santanu; Lahiri, Indranil; Kang, Chiwon; Choi, Wonbong

2011-06-01

This paper presents our recent results on carbon nanomaterials for applications in energy storage and bio-sensor. More specifically: (i) A novel binder-free carbon nanotubes (CNTs) structure as anode in Li-ion batteries. The interfacecontrolled CNT structure, synthesized through a two-step chemical vapor deposition (CVD) and directly grown on copper current collector, showed very high specific capacity - almost three times as that of graphite, excellent rate capability. (ii) A large scale graphene film was grown on Cu foil by thermal chemical vapor deposition and transferred to various substrates including PET, glass and silicon by using hot press lamination and etching process. The graphene/PET film shows high quality, flexible transparent conductive structure with unique electrical-mechanical properties; ~88.80 % light transmittance and ~ 100 Ω/sq sheet resistance. We demonstrate application of graphene/PET film as flexible and transparent electrode for field emission displays. (iii) Application of individual carbon nanotube as nanoelectrode for high sensitivity electrochemical sensor and device miniaturization. An individual CNT is split into a pair of nanoelectrodes with a gap between them. Single molecular-level detection of DNA hybridization was studied. Hybridization of the probe with its complementary strand results in an appreciable change in the electrical output signal.

Transition pathways for a UK low carbon electricity future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foxon, Timothy J.

2013-01-01

Achieving long-term targets for greenhouse gas emissions reductions, such as the UK's legally-binding target of reducing its emissions by 80% by 2050, will require a transition in systems for meeting and shaping energy service demands, involving radical substitution to low-carbon supply technologies and improvements in end-use energy efficiency. This paper describes the development and high-level analysis of a set of transition pathways to a UK low carbon electricity system, explaining key features of the core pathways developed and the distinctiveness and value of the approach. The pathways use an ‘action space’ concept to explore the dynamic interactions between choices made by actors, which are influenced by the competing governance ‘framings’ or ‘logics’ that different actors pursue. The paper sets out three core transition pathways – Market Rules, Central Co-ordination and Thousand Flowers, in which market, government and civil society logics respectively dominate. It summarises the key technological and institutional changes in these pathways, and the roles of actors in bringing these about. This leads to an identification of the key risks to the realisation of each of the pathways, and of the challenges for individuals, businesses, social movements and policy-makers in taking action to bring them about and sustain them. - Highlights: ► Development of a set of transition pathways to a UK low carbon electricity system. ► Action space to explore the dynamic interactions between choices made by actors. ► Three core pathways in which market, government and civil society logics dominate. ► Key technological and institutional changes, and the roles of actors in pathways. ► Challenges for different actors in realising pathways.

Carbon quota price and CDM potentials after Marrakesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wenying Chen

2003-01-01

The Kyoto Protocol sets quantified GHG emission reduction commitments for Annex I Parties. But their emission reduction requirements related to BAU projections, one of the key factors to effect on future carbon market, are uncertain. Both the decisions made in Bonn and Marrakesh would have further consequences for how the future carbon market will take shape. This paper, with application of the carbon emission reduction trading model, evaluates future carbon quota price and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) potentials under different BAU projections, and does sensitivity analysis on carry-over of AAUs, CERs and ERUs, implementation rate, transaction cost, holding of CERs in Non-Annex I Parties, etc. to assess the impacts of relevant decisions of COP6-bis and COP7 on the carbon market. Under different BAU projections, future carbon quota price and CDM potentials could vary widely. Carry over of AAUs, CERs, ERUs, and holding of CERs in Non-Annex I Parties could raise both quota price and total CDM potentials considerably. Implementation rate could have big impacts on both carbon quota price and CDM potentials, especially for the cases formerly with relatively high CDM potentials, and it could also change the regional distribution of CDM potentials. Transaction cost's effect on the carbon market would be comparatively low, but would become unignorable in the market whose quota price is low. It would lead to a downward trend in price while upward in CDM potentials when increasing the implementation rate or lowering transaction cost. Withdrawal of USA would dramatically shrink carbon price and credit amount, and large numbers of hot air and sink credits would further greatly crowd out the CDM projects; carry over of AAUs, CERs and ERUs, holding of CERs in Non-Annex I Parties, prompt start of CDM projects, etc., would, however, enhance the total CDM credits to ensure more investment and technology flow to developing countries to promote their sustainable development

Carbon quota price and CDM potentials after Marrakesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Wenying

2003-01-01

The Kyoto Protocol sets quantified GHG emission reduction commitments for Annex I Parties. But their emission reduction requirements related to BAU projections, one of the key factors to effect on future carbon market, are uncertain. Both the decisions made in Bonn and Marrakesh would have further consequences for how the future carbon market will take shape. This paper, with application of the carbon emission reduction trading model, evaluates future carbon quota price and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) potentials under different BAU projections, and does sensitivity analysis on carry-over of AAUs, CERs and ERUs, implementation rate, transaction cost, holding of CERs in Non-Annex I Parties, etc. to assess the impacts of relevant decisions of COP6-bis and COP7 on the carbon market. Under different BAU projections, future carbon quota price and CDM potentials could vary widely. Carry over of AAUs, CERs, ERUs, and holding of CERs in Non-Annex I Parties could raise both quota price and total CDM potentials considerably. Implementation rate could have big impacts on both carbon quota price and CDM potentials, especially for the cases formerly with relatively high CDM potentials, and it could also change the regional distribution of CDM potentials. Transaction cost's effect on the carbon market would be comparatively low, but would become unignorable in the market whose quota price is low. It would lead to a downward trend in price while upward in CDM potentials when increasing the implementation rate or lowering transaction cost. Withdrawal of USA would dramatically shrink carbon price and credit amount, and large numbers of hot air and sink credits would further greatly crowd out the CDM projects; carry over of AAUs, CERs and ERUs, holding of CERs in Non-Annex I Parties, prompt start of CDM projects, etc., would, however, enhance the total CDM credits to ensure more investment and technology flow to developing countries to promote their sustainable development

Looking Forward. The Carbon Markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilder, M.

2006-02-01

An overview is given of possible future developments in the market for carbon dioxide emissions trading. In this presentation it is concluded that the carbon market is here and now, that the carbon market is global and China and India are major players, that global capital is on the move and delay is dangerous, that there is a world of opportunity for Australian companies and with inaction there is a risk to fall off the fringe

Robust extraction of baseline signal of atmospheric trace species using local regression

Science.gov (United States)

Ruckstuhl, A. F.; Henne, S.; Reimann, S.; Steinbacher, M.; Vollmer, M. K.; O'Doherty, S.; Buchmann, B.; Hueglin, C.

2012-11-01

The identification of atmospheric trace species measurements that are representative of well-mixed background air masses is required for monitoring atmospheric composition change at background sites. We present a statistical method based on robust local regression that is well suited for the selection of background measurements and the estimation of associated baseline curves. The bootstrap technique is applied to calculate the uncertainty in the resulting baseline curve. The non-parametric nature of the proposed approach makes it a very flexible data filtering method. Application to carbon monoxide (CO) measured from 1996 to 2009 at the high-alpine site Jungfraujoch (Switzerland, 3580 m a.s.l.), and to measurements of 1,1-difluoroethane (HFC-152a) from Jungfraujoch (2000 to 2009) and Mace Head (Ireland, 1995 to 2009) demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of the proposed approach. The determined average annual change of CO at Jungfraujoch for the 1996 to 2009 period as estimated from filtered annual mean CO concentrations is -2.2 ± 1.1 ppb yr-1. For comparison, the linear trend of unfiltered CO measurements at Jungfraujoch for this time period is -2.9 ± 1.3 ppb yr-1.

Energy white paper: Our energy future - Creating a low carbon economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-02-01

Energy is vital to a modern economy. We need energy to heat and light our homes, to help us travel and to power our businesses. Our economy has also benefited hugely from our country's resources of fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas. However, our energy system faces new challenges. Energy can no longer be thought of as a short-term domestic issue. Climate change - largely caused by burning fossil fuels - threatens major consequences in the UK and worldwide, most seriously for the poorest countries who are least able to cope. Our energy supplies will increasingly depend on imported gas and oil from Europe and beyond. At the same time, we need competitive markets to keep down costs and keep energy affordable for our businesses, industries, and households. This white paper addresses those challenges. It gives a new direction for energy policy. We need urgent global action to tackle climate change. We are showing leadership by putting the UK on a path to a 60% reduction in its carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. And, because this country cannot solve this problem alone, we will work internationally to secure the major cuts in emissions that will be needed worldwide. Our analysis suggests that, by working with others, the costs of action will be acceptable - and the costs of inaction are potentially much greater. And as we move to a new, low carbon economy, there are major opportunities for our businesses to become world leaders in the technologies we will need for the future - such as fuel cells, offshore wind and tidal power. Science and technology are vital, and we will be supporting further research and development in these areas. In parallel, we need access to a wide range of energy sources and technologies and a robust infrastructure to bring the energy to where we want to use it. We will maintain competitive markets in the UK and press for further liberalisation in Europe. And we renew our commitment that no household in Britain should be living in fuel poverty by

Introducing carbon taxes in South Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alton, Theresa; Arndt, Channing; Davies, Rob; Hartley, Faaiqa; Makrelov, Konstantin; Thurlow, James; Ubogu, Dumebi

2014-01-01

Highlights: • South Africa is considering introducing a carbon tax to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. • A phased-in tax of US$30 per ton can achieve national emissions reductions targets set for 2025. • Ignoring all potential benefits, the tax reduces national welfare by about 1.2 percent in 2025. • Border carbon adjustments reduce welfare losses while maintaining emissions reductions. • The mode for recycling carbon tax revenues strongly influences distributional outcomes. - Abstract: South Africa is considering introducing a carbon tax to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Following a discussion of the motivations for considering a carbon tax, we evaluate potential impacts using a dynamic economywide model linked to an energy sector model including a detailed evaluation of border carbon adjustments. Results indicate that a phased-in carbon tax of US$30 per ton of CO 2 can achieve national emissions reductions targets set for 2025. Relative to a baseline with free disposal of CO 2 , constant world prices and no change in trading partner behavior, the preferred tax scenario reduces national welfare and employment by about 1.2 and 0.6 percent, respectively. However, if trading partners unilaterally impose a carbon consumption tax on South African exports, then welfare/employment losses exceed those from a domestic carbon tax. South Africa can lessen welfare/employment losses by introducing its own border carbon adjustments. The mode for recycling carbon tax revenues strongly influences distributional outcomes, with tradeoffs between growth and equity

Study on China's low carbon development in an Economy-Energy-Electricity-Environment framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu Zhaoguang; Yuan Jiahai; Hu Zheng

2011-01-01

Emissions mitigation is a major challenge for China's sustainable development. We summarize China's successful experiences on energy efficiency in past 30 years as the contributions of Energy Usage Management and Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which are essential for low-carbon economy. In an Economy-Energy-Electricity-Environment (E4) framework, the paper studies the low-carbon development of China and gives an outlook of China's economy growth, energy-electricity demand, renewable power generation and energy conservation and emissions mitigation until 2030. A business-as-usual scenario is projected as baseline for comparison while low carbon energy and electricity development path is studied. It is defined as low carbon energy/electricity when an economy body manages to realize its potential economic growth fueled by less energy/electricity consumption, which can be characterized by indexes of energy/electricity intensity and emissions per-unit of energy consumption (electricity generation). Results show that, with EUM, China, could save energy by 4.38 billion ton oil equivalences (toes) and reduce CO 2 emission by 16.55 billion tons; with IRSP, China, could save energy by 1.5 Btoes and reduce CO 2 emission by 5.7 Btons, during 2010-2030. To realize the massive potential, China has to reshape its economic structure and rely much on technology innovation in the future. - Research highlights: → In an E4 framework China's low-carbon development is compared with BAU scenario. → Low carbon energy/electricity and their related measuring indexes are discussed. → China's successful experiences on energy efficiency are summarized as EUM and IRSP. → With them China could save energy by 5.8 Btoe and reduce CO 2 by 22.2 Bton until 2030. → China must restructure its economy and rely on technology innovation for them.

The IUGS/IAGC Task Group on Global Geochemical Baselines

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, David B.; Wang, Xueqiu; Reeder, Shaun; Demetriades, Alecos

2012-01-01

The Task Group on Global Geochemical Baselines, operating under the auspices of both the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) and the International Association of Geochemistry (IAGC), has the long-term goal of establishing a global geochemical database to document the concentration and distribution of chemical elements in the Earth’s surface or near-surface environment. The database and accompanying element distribution maps represent a geochemical baseline against which future human-induced or natural changes to the chemistry of the land surface may be recognized and quantified. In order to accomplish this long-term goal, the activities of the Task Group include: (1) developing partnerships with countries conducting broad-scale geochemical mapping studies; (2) providing consultation and training in the form of workshops and short courses; (3) organizing periodic international symposia to foster communication among the geochemical mapping community; (4) developing criteria for certifying those projects whose data are acceptable in a global geochemical database; (5) acting as a repository for data collected by those projects meeting the criteria for standardization; (6) preparing complete metadata for the certified projects; and (7) preparing, ultimately, a global geochemical database. This paper summarizes the history and accomplishments of the Task Group since its first predecessor project was established in 1988.

Evaluation of various carbon blacks and dispersing agents for use in the preparation of uranium microspheres with carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, R. D.; Johnson, J. A.; Collins, J. L.; McMurray, J. W.; Reif, T. J.; Brown, D. R.

2018-01-01

A comparison study on carbon blacks and dispersing agents was performed to determine their impacts on the final properties of uranium fuel kernels with carbon. The main target compositions in this internal gelation study were 10 and 20 mol % uranium dicarbide (UC2), which is UC1.86, with the balance uranium dioxide. After heat treatment at 1900 K in flowing carbon monoxide in argon for 12 h, the density of the kernels produced using a X-energy proprietary carbon suspension, which is commercially available, ranged from 96% to 100% of theoretical density (TD), with full conversion of UC to UC2 at both carbon concentrations. However, higher carbon concentrations such as a 2.5 mol ratio of carbon to uranium in the feed solutions failed to produce gel spheres with the proprietary carbon suspension. The kernels using our former baseline of Mogul L carbon black and Tamol SN were 90-92% of TD with full conversion of UC to UC2 at a variety of carbon levels. Raven 5000 carbon black and Tamol SN were used to produce 10 mol % UC2 kernels with 95% of TD. However, an increase in the Raven 5000 concentration led to a kernel density below 90% of TD. Raven 3500 carbon black and Tamol SN were used to make very dense kernels without complete conversion to UC2. The selection of the carbon black and dispersing agent is highly dependent on the desired final properties of the target kernels.

Will the use of a carbon tax for revenue generation produce an incentive to continue carbon emissions?

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Rong; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Caldeira, Ken

2017-05-01

Integrated assessment models are commonly used to generate optimal carbon prices based on an objective function that maximizes social welfare. Such models typically project an initially low carbon price that increases with time. This framework does not reflect the incentives of decision makers who are responsible for generating tax revenue. If a rising carbon price is to result in near-zero emissions, it must ultimately result in near-zero carbon tax revenue. That means that at some point, policy makers will be asked to increase the tax rate on carbon emissions to such an extent that carbon tax revenue will fall. Therefore, there is a risk that the use of a carbon tax to generate revenue could eventually create a perverse incentive to continue carbon emissions in order to provide a continued stream of carbon tax revenue. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) model, we provide evidence that this risk is not a concern for the immediate future but that a revenue-generating carbon tax could create this perverse incentive as time goes on. This incentive becomes perverse at about year 2085 under the default configuration of DICE, but the timing depends on a range of factors including the cost of climate damages and the cost of decarbonizing the global energy system. While our study is based on a schematic model, it highlights the importance of considering a broader spectrum of incentives in studies using more comprehensive integrated assessment models. Our study demonstrates that the use of a carbon tax for revenue generation could potentially motivate implementation of such a tax today, but this source of revenue generation risks motivating continued carbon emissions far into the future.

Health-related quality of life after carbon-ion radiotherapy for prostate cancer. A 3-year prospective study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katoh, Hiroyuki; Tsuji, Hiroshi; Ishikawa, Hitoshi

2014-01-01

To assess 3-year health-related quality of life of patients treated with carbon ion radiotherapy for prostate cancer. A total of 213 patients received carbon-ion radiotherapy at a total dose of 66 Gy equivalent in 20 fractions over 5 weeks, and neoadjuvant and adjuvant androgen deprivation therapy were administered for high-risk patients for at least 12 months. A health-related quality of life assessment was carried out at four time-points (immediately before the initiation of carbon-ion radiotherapy, immediately after, 12 and 36 months after completion of carbon-ion radiotherapy) using Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy General and for Prostate Cancer Patients. The evaluable response rates among all responses were more than 94%. Overall, a significant decrease in the scores of the health-related quality of life 12 months after carbon-ion radiotherapy returned to their baseline levels at 36 months. Additionally, no significant decrease was observed in the scores at any of the assessment time-points compared with their baseline scores in the group of carbon-ion radiotherapy without androgen deprivation therapy; however, the presence of morbidity and biochemical failure significantly worsened the scores, and the decreases in the scores did not improve even at 36 months after carbon-ion radiotherapy. An assessment based on a subjective scoring system shows a significant decrease in health-related quality of life at 12 months after carbon-ion radiation therapy, which tends to return to baseline levels at 36 months. The presence of morbidity and bio-chemical failure significantly worsen health-related quality of life scores. Further controlled studies focusing on health-related quality of life assessment in patients with prostate cancer are warranted. (author)

Forest Carbon Monitoring and Reporting for REDD+: What Future for Africa?

Science.gov (United States)

Gizachew, Belachew; Duguma, Lalisa A

2016-11-01

A climate change mitigation mechanism for emissions reduction from reduced deforestation and forest degradation, plus forest conservation, sustainable management of forest, and enhancement of carbon stocks (REDD+), has received an international political support in the climate change negotiations. The mechanism will require, among others, an unprecedented technical capacity for monitoring, reporting and verification of carbon emissions from the forest sector. A functional monitoring, reporting and verification requires inventories of forest area, carbon stock and changes, both for the construction of forest reference emissions level and compiling the report on the actual emissions, which are essentially lacking in developing countries, particularly in Africa. The purpose of this essay is to contribute to a better understanding of the state and prospects of forest monitoring and reporting in the context of REDD+ in Africa. We argue that monitoring and reporting capacities in Africa fall short of the stringent requirements of the methodological guidance for monitoring, reporting and verification for REDD+, and this may weaken the prospects for successfully implementing REDD+ in the continent. We presented the challenges and prospects in the national forest inventory, remote sensing and reporting infrastructures. A North-South, South-South collaboration as well as governments own investments in monitoring, reporting and verification system could help Africa leapfrog in monitoring and reporting. These could be delivered through negotiations for the transfer of technology, technical capacities, and experiences that exist among developed countries that traditionally compile forest carbon reports in the context of the Kyoto protocol.

Baseline Design Compliance Matrix for the Rotary Mode Core Sampling System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LECHELT, J.A.

2000-01-01

The purpose of the design compliance matrix (DCM) is to provide a single-source document of all design requirements associated with the fifteen subsystems that make up the rotary mode core sampling (RMCS) system. It is intended to be the baseline requirement document for the RMCS system and to be used in governing all future design and design verification activities associated with it. This document is the DCM for the RMCS system used on Hanford single-shell radioactive waste storage tanks. This includes the Exhauster System, Rotary Mode Core Sample Trucks, Universal Sampling System, Diesel Generator System, Distribution Trailer, X-Ray Cart System, Breathing Air Compressor, Nitrogen Supply Trailer, Casks and Cask Truck, Service Trailer, Core Sampling Riser Equipment, Core Sampling Support Trucks, Foot Clamp, Ramps and Platforms and Purged Camera System. Excluded items are tools such as light plants and light stands. Other items such as the breather inlet filter are covered by a different design baseline. In this case, the inlet breather filter is covered by the Tank Farms Design Compliance Matrix

10 CFR 850.20 - Baseline beryllium inventory.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Baseline beryllium inventory. 850.20 Section 850.20 Energy... Baseline beryllium inventory. (a) The responsible employer must develop a baseline inventory of the... inventory, the responsible employer must: (1) Review current and historical records; (2) Interview workers...

40 CFR 80.92 - Baseline auditor requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Baseline auditor requirements. 80.92... (CONTINUED) REGULATION OF FUELS AND FUEL ADDITIVES Anti-Dumping § 80.92 Baseline auditor requirements. (a... determination methodology, resulting baseline fuel parameter, volume and emissions values verified by an auditor...

Integrated planning: A baseline development perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, L.; Chang, D.

1994-01-01

The FEMP Baseline establishes the basis for integrating environmental activity technical requirements with their cost and schedule elements. The result is a path forward to successfully achieving the FERMCO mission. Specific to cost management, the FEMP Baseline has been incorporate into the FERMCO Project Control System (PCS) to provide a time-phased budget plan against which contractor performance is measured with an earned value management system. The result is the Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB), an important tool for keeping cost under control

Short and long-term carbon balance of bioenergy electricity production fueled by forest treatments.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelsey, Katharine C; Barnes, Kallie L; Ryan, Michael G; Neff, Jason C

2014-01-01

Forests store large amounts of carbon in forest biomass, and this carbon can be released to the atmosphere following forest disturbance or management. In the western US, forest fuel reduction treatments designed to reduce the risk of high severity wildfire can change forest carbon balance by removing carbon in the form of biomass, and by altering future potential wildfire behavior in the treated stand. Forest treatment carbon balance is further affected by the fate of this biomass removed from the forest, and the occurrence and intensity of a future wildfire in this stand. In this study we investigate the carbon balance of a forest treatment with varying fates of harvested biomass, including use for bioenergy electricity production, and under varying scenarios of future disturbance and regeneration. Bioenergy is a carbon intensive energy source; in our study we find that carbon emissions from bioenergy electricity production are nearly twice that of coal for the same amount of electricity. However, some emissions from bioenergy electricity production are offset by avoided fossil fuel electricity emissions. The carbon benefit achieved by using harvested biomass for bioenergy electricity production may be increased through avoided pyrogenic emissions if the forest treatment can effectively reduce severity. Forest treatments with the use of harvested biomass for electricity generation can reduce carbon emissions to the atmosphere by offsetting fossil fuel electricity generation emissions, and potentially by avoided pyrogenic emissions due to reduced intensity and severity of a future wildfire in the treated stand. However, changes in future wildfire and regeneration regimes may affect forest carbon balance and these climate-induced changes may influence forest carbon balance as much, or more, than bioenergy production.

Where is the carbon? Carbon sequestration potential from private forestland in the Southern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Christopher S. Galik; Brian C. Murray; D. Evan Mercer

2013-01-01

Uncertainty surrounding the future supply of timber in the southern United States prompted the question, “Where is all the wood?” (Cubbage et al. 1995). We ask a similar question about the potential of southern forests to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by sequestering carbon. Because significant carbon sequestration potential occurs on individual nonindustrial...

Illuminating the future of silicon photonics: optical coupling of carbon nanotubes to microrings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kato, Y K

2015-01-01

Advances in carbon nanotube material quality and processing techniques have led to an increased interest in nanotube photonics. In particular, emission in the telecommunication wavelengths makes nanotubes compatible with silicon photonics. Noury et al (2014 Nanotechnology 25 215201) have reported on carbon nanotube photoluminescence coupled to silicon microring resonators, underscoring the advantage of combining carbon nanotube emitters with silicon photonics. Their results open up the possibility of using nanotubes in other waveguide-based devices, taking advantage of well-established technologies. (viewpoint)

Physics with a very long neutrino factory baseline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gandhi, Raj; Winter, Walter

2007-01-01

We discuss the neutrino oscillation physics of a very long neutrino factory baseline over a broad range of lengths (between 6000 km and 9000 km), centered on the 'magic baseline' (∼7500 km) where correlations with the leptonic CP phase are suppressed by matter effects. Since the magic baseline depends only on the density, we study the impact of matter density profile effects and density uncertainties over this range, and the impact of detector locations off the optimal baseline. We find that the optimal constant density describing the physics over this entire baseline range is about 5% higher than the average matter density. This implies that the magic baseline is significantly shorter than previously inferred. However, while a single detector optimization requires fine-tuning of the (very long) baseline length, its combination with a near detector at a shorter baseline is much less sensitive to the far detector location and to uncertainties in the matter density. In addition, we point out different applications of this baseline which go beyond its excellent correlation and degeneracy resolution potential. We demonstrate that such a long baseline assists in the improvement of the θ 13 precision and in the resolution of the octant degeneracy. Moreover, we show that the neutrino data from such a baseline could be used to extract the matter density along the profile up to 0.24% at 1σ for large sin 2 2θ 13 , providing a useful discriminator between different geophysical models

Options for accounting carbon sequestration in German forests

Science.gov (United States)

Krug, Joachim; Koehl, Michael; Riedel, Thomas; Bormann, Kristin; Rueter, Sebastian; Elsasser, Peter

2009-01-01

Background The Accra climate change talks held from 21–27 August 2008 in Accra, Ghana, were part of an ongoing series of meetings leading up to the Copenhagen meeting in December 2009. During the meeting a set of options for accounting carbon sequestration in forestry on a post-2012 framework was presented. The options include gross-net and net-net accounting and approaches for establishing baselines. Results This article demonstrates the embedded consequences of Accra Accounting Options for the case study of German national GHG accounting. It presents the most current assessment of sequestration rates by forest management for the period 1990 – 2007, provides an outlook of future emissions and removals (up to the year 2042) as related to three different management scenarios, and shows that implementation of some Accra options may reverse sources to sinks, or sinks to sources. Conclusion The results of the study highlight the importance of elaborating an accounting system that would prioritize the climate convention goals, not national preferences. PMID:19650896

Collection of Country-level Baseline Surveys Implemented as Part of the Feed the Future Initiative

Data.gov (United States)

US Agency for International Development — Led by USAID, Feed the Future is the U.S. Government?s global hunger and food security initiative, which establishes a foundation for lasting progress against global...

[Review of lime carbon sink.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Li Li; Ling, Jiang Hua; Tie, Li; Wang, Jiao Yue; Bing, Long Fei; Xi, Feng Ming

2018-01-01

Under the background of "missing carbon sink" mystery and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology development, this paper summarized the lime material flow process carbon sink from the lime carbonation principles, impact factors, and lime utilization categories in chemical industry, metallurgy industry, construction industry, and lime kiln ash treatment. The results showed that the lime carbonation rate coefficients were mainly impacted by materials and ambient conditions; the lime carbon sink was mainly in chemical, metallurgy, and construction industries; and current researches focused on the mechanisms and impact factors for carbonation, but their carbon sequestration calculation methods had not been proposed. Therefore, future research should focus on following aspects: to establish a complete system of lime carbon sequestration accounting method in view of material flow; to calculate lime carbon sequestration in both China and the world and explain their offset proportion of CO 2 emission from lime industrial process; to analyze the contribution of lime carbon sequestration to missing carbon sink for clarifying part of missing carbon sinks; to promote the development of carbon capture and storage technology and provide some scientific bases for China's international negotiations on climate change.

The Future of Carbon Monoxide Measurements from Space

Science.gov (United States)

Drummond, J.

It is now over 20 years since the Measurements of Air Pollution from Space MAPS instrument made the first measurements of tropospheric carbon monoxide from the shuttle Since that time a number of instruments have flown including the Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere MOPITT Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer TES and SCanning Imaging Absorption SpectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY SCIAMCHY to name only three of many Each of these instruments has a unique observing method and unique mission characteristics It is accepted that measurements of carbon monoxide provide a useful proxy of the pollution of the troposphere and contribute significantly to studies of various phenomena in the atmosphere and atmosphere-surface interactions These measurements should therefore be continued -- but in what form Technology has progresses significantly since the current generation of instruments was designed and our ability to interpret the data from such instrumentation has likewise expanded It is therefore fruitful to consider what is the best set of measurements that can be made which parameters should be emphasized and which compromised on the way to the next generation of sensors The Measurements of Air Pollution Levels in the Environment MAPLE instrument is a study financed by the Canadian Space Agency to design a next-generation instrument and since instrument spacecraft and mission are now intimately linked a consideration of the whole mission is appropriate This talk will outline some potential developments in the hardware

Predicted Water and Carbon Fluxes as well as Vegetation Distribution on the Korean Peninsula in the Future with the Ecosystem Demography Model version 2

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, J. B.; Kim, Y.

2017-12-01

This study investigates how the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation distribution on the Korean peninsula would vary with climate change. Ecosystem Demography (ED) Model version 2 (ED2) is used in this study, which is an integrated terrestrial biosphere model that can utilize a set of size- and age- structured partial differential equations that track the changing structure and composition of the plant canopy. With using the vegetation distribution data of Jeju Island, located at the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, ED2 is setup and driven for the past 10 years. Then the results of ED2 are evaluated and adjusted with observed forestry data, i.e., growth and mortality, and the flux tower and MODIS satellite data, i.e., evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP). This adjusted ED2 are used to simulate the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation dynamics in the Korean Peninsula for the historical period with evaluating the model against the MODIS satellite data. Finally, the climate scenarios of RCP 2.6 and 6.0 are used to predict the fluxes and vegetation distribution of the Korean Peninsula in the future. With using the state-of-art terrestrial ecosystem model, this study would provide us better understanding of the future ecosystem vulnerability of the Korean Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180. This work was also supported by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

A review of low carbon fuel policies: Principles, program status and future directions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeh, Sonia; Witcover, Julie; Lade, Gabriel E.; Sperling, Daniel

2016-01-01

A low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) is a market-based policy that specifies declining standards for the average lifecycle fuel carbon intensity (AFCI) of transportation fuels sold in a region. This paper: (i) compares transportation fuel carbon policies in terms of their economic efficiency, fuel price impacts, greenhouse gas emission reductions, and incentives for innovation; (ii) discusses key regulatory design features of LCFS policies; and (iii) provides an update on the implementation status of LCFS policies in California, the European Union, British Columbia, and Oregon. The economics literature finds that an intensity standard implicitly taxes emissions and subsidizes output. The output subsidy results in an intensity standard being inferior to a carbon tax in a first-best world, although the inefficiency can be corrected with a properly designed consumption tax (or mitigated by a properly designed carbon tax or cap-and-trade program). In California, from 2011 to 2015 the share of alternative fuels in the regulated transportation fuels pool increased by 30%, and the reported AFCI of all alternative fuels declined 21%. LCFS credit prices have varied considerably, rising to above $100/credit in the first half of 2016. LCFS programs in other jurisdictions share many features with California's, but have distinct provisions as well. - Highlights: • LCFS is a market-based policy that sets standards for carbon intensity of fuels. • We compare efficiency, price impacts, GHG emissions, and innovation of C policies. • In California, reported carbon intensity of alternative fuels declined 21% 2011–2015. • LCFS credit prices have varied considerably, rising to above $100/credit in the first half of 2016. • Other LCFS programs share many features with CA's and have distinct provisions.

The NASA Carbon Monitoring System

Science.gov (United States)

Hurtt, G. C.

2015-12-01

Greenhouse gas emission inventories, forest carbon sequestration programs (e.g., Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD and REDD+), cap-and-trade systems, self-reporting programs, and their associated monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) frameworks depend upon data that are accurate, systematic, practical, and transparent. A sustained, observationally-driven carbon monitoring system using remote sensing data has the potential to significantly improve the relevant carbon cycle information base for the U.S. and world. Initiated in 2010, NASA's Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) project is prototyping and conducting pilot studies to evaluate technological approaches and methodologies to meet carbon monitoring and reporting requirements for multiple users and over multiple scales of interest. NASA's approach emphasizes exploitation of the satellite remote sensing resources, computational capabilities, scientific knowledge, airborne science capabilities, and end-to-end system expertise that are major strengths of the NASA Earth Science program. Through user engagement activities, the NASA CMS project is taking specific actions to be responsive to the needs of stakeholders working to improve carbon MRV frameworks. The first phase of NASA CMS projects focused on developing products for U.S. biomass/carbon stocks and global carbon fluxes, and on scoping studies to identify stakeholders and explore other potential carbon products. The second phase built upon these initial efforts, with a large expansion in prototyping activities across a diversity of systems, scales, and regions, including research focused on prototype MRV systems and utilization of COTS technologies. Priorities for the future include: 1) utilizing future satellite sensors, 2) prototyping with commercial off-the-shelf technology, 3) expanding the range of prototyping activities, 4) rigorous evaluation, uncertainty quantification, and error characterization, 5) stakeholder

Pathways for implementing REDD+. Experiences from carbon markets and communities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhu, X; Ravnkilde Moeller, L; Lopez, T De; Romero, M Z

2011-07-01

This issue of Carbon Market Perspectives on 'Pathways for implementing REDD+: Experience from carbon markets and communities' discusses the role of carbon markets in scaling up investments for REDD+ in developing countries. Nine articles authored by experienced negotiators on REDD+, carbon market actors, project developers and other leading experts share experiences and make suggestions on the key elements of a future international REDD+ regime: Architecture and underlying principles, measuring, reporting and verification (MRV), private-sector involvement, the rights of indigenous people and local communities, biodiversity conservation and environmental integrity. The articles are grouped under three main topics: the lessons of existing REDD+ projects; the future REDD+ regime and the role of carbon markets; and experiences and ideas about the involvement of indigenous people and local communities. (LN)

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Hutson, N.; Lamm, C. R.; Pei, Y. L.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Winebrake, J. J.

2013-03-01

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analytical models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Climate control of terrestrial carbon exchange across biomes and continents

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yi, Chuixiang; Ricciuto, Daniel; Li, Runze

2010-01-01

Understanding the relationships between climate and carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems is critical to predict future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide because of the potential accelerating effects of positive climate–carbon cycle feedbacks. However, directly observed relationships betwe...

Climate control of terrestrial carbon exchange across biomes and continents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yi, C.; Ricciuto, D.; Li, R.; Hendriks, D.M.D.; Moors, E.J.; Valentini, R.

2010-01-01

Understanding the relationships between climate and carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems is critical to predict future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide because of the potential accelerating effects of positive climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. However, directly observed relationships between

Climate control of terrestrial carbon exchange across biomes and continents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yi, C.; Jacobs, C.M.J.; Moors, E.J.; Elbers, J.A.

2010-01-01

Understanding the relationships between climate and carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems is critical to predict future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide because of the potential accelerating effects of positive climate–carbon cycle feedbacks. However, directly observed relationships between

Past and prospective carbon stocks in forests of northern Wisconsin: a report from the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest Climate Change Response Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Richard Birdsey; Yude Pan; Maria Janowiak; Susan Stewart; Sarah Hines; Linda Parker; Stith Gower; Jeremy Lichstein; Kevin McCullough; Fangmin Zhang; Jing Chen; David Mladenoff; Craig Wayson; Chris. Swanston

2014-01-01

This report assesses past and prospective carbon stocks for 4.5 million ha of forest land in northern Wisconsin, including a baseline assessment and analysis of the impacts of disturbance and management on carbon stocks. Carbon density (amount of carbon stock per unit area) averages 237 megagrams (Mg) per ha, with the National Forest lands having slightly higher carbon...

Large-baseline InSAR for precise topographic mapping: a framework for TanDEM-X large-baseline data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Pinheiro

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The global Digital Elevation Model (DEM resulting from the TanDEM-X mission provides information about the world topography with outstanding precision. In fact, performance analysis carried out with the already available data have shown that the global product is well within the requirements of 10 m absolute vertical accuracy and 2 m relative vertical accuracy for flat to moderate terrain. The mission's science phase took place from October 2014 to December 2015. During this phase, bistatic acquisitions with across-track separation between the two satellites up to 3.6 km at the equator were commanded. Since the relative vertical accuracy of InSAR derived elevation models is, in principle, inversely proportional to the system baseline, the TanDEM-X science phase opened the doors for the generation of elevation models with improved quality with respect to the standard product. However, the interferometric processing of the large-baseline data is troublesome due to the increased volume decorrelation and very high frequency of the phase variations. Hence, in order to fully profit from the increased baseline, sophisticated algorithms for the interferometric processing, and, in particular, for the phase unwrapping have to be considered. This paper proposes a novel dual-baseline region-growing framework for the phase unwrapping of the large-baseline interferograms. Results from two experiments with data from the TanDEM-X science phase are discussed, corroborating the expected increased level of detail of the large-baseline DEMs.

Forest sector carbon analyses support land management planning and projects: Assessing the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors

Science.gov (United States)

Alexa J. Dugan; Richard Birdsey; Sean P. Healey; Yude Pan; Fangmin Zhang; Gang Mo; Jing Chen; Christopher W. Woodall; Alexander J. Hernandez; Kevin McCullough; James B. McCarter; Crystal L. Raymond; Karen. Dante-Wood

2017-01-01

Management of forest carbon stocks on public lands is critical to maintaining or enhancing carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere. Acknowledging this, an array of federal regulations and policies have emerged that requires US National Forests to report baseline carbon stocks and changes due to disturbance and management and assess how management activities and...

The Future of Freshwater Macrophytes in a Changing World: Dissolved Organic Carbon Quantity and Quality and Its Interactions With Macrophytes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosanne E. Reitsema

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Freshwater ecosystems are confronted with the effects of climate change. One of the major changes is an increased concentration of aquatic carbon. Macrophytes are important in the aquatic carbon cycle and play as primary producers a crucial role in carbon storage in aquatic systems. However, macrophytes are affected by increasing carbon concentrations. The focus of this review lies on dissolved organic carbon (DOC, one of the most abundant forms of carbon in aquatic ecosystems which has many effects on macrophytes. DOC concentrations are rising; the exact cause of this increase is not known, although it is hypothesized that climate change is one of the drivers. The quality of DOC is also changing; for example, in urban areas DOC composition is different from the composition in natural watersheds, resulting in DOC that is more resistant to photo-degradation. Plants can benefit from DOC as it attenuates UV-B radiation, it binds potentially harmful heavy metals and provides CO2 as it breaks down. Yet plant growth can also be impaired under high DOC concentrations, especially by humic substances (HS. HS turn the water brown and attenuate light, which limits macrophyte photosynthesis at greater depths. This leads to lower macrophyte abundance and lower species diversity. HS form a wide class of chemicals with many different functional groups and they therefore have the ability to interfere with many biochemical processes that occur in freshwater organisms. Few studies have looked into the direct effects of HS on macrophytes, but there is evidence that HS can interfere with photosynthesis by entering macrophyte cells and causing damage. DOC can also affect reactivity of heavy metals, water and sediment chemistry. This indirectly affects macrophytes too, so they are exposed to multiple stressors that may have contradictive effects. Finally, macrophytes can affect DOC quality and quantity as they produce DOC themselves and provide a substrate to

NDE for Characterizing Oxidation Damage in Reinforced Carbon-Carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Roth, Don J.; Rauser, Richard W.; Jacobson, nathan S.; Wincheski, Russell A.; Walker, James L.; Cosgriff, Laura A.

2009-01-01

In this study, coated reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC) samples of similar structure and composition as that from the NASA space shuttle orbiter s thermal protection system were fabricated with slots in their coating simulating craze cracks. These specimens were used to study oxidation damage detection and characterization using NDE methods. These specimens were heat treated in air at 1143 and 1200 C to create cavities in the carbon substrate underneath the coating as oxygen reacted with the carbon and resulted in its consumption. The cavities varied in diameter from approximately 1 to 3 mm. Single-sided NDE methods were used since they might be practical for on-wing inspection, while x-ray micro-computed tomography (CT) was used to measure cavity sizes in order to validate oxidation models under development for carbon-carbon materials. An RCC sample having a naturally-cracked coating and subsequent oxidation damage was also studied with x-ray micro-CT. This effort is a follow-on study to one that characterized NDE methods for assessing oxidation damage in an RCC sample with drilled holes in the coating. The results of that study are briefly reviewed in this article as well. Additionally, a short discussion on the future role of simulation to aid in these studies is provided.

Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raupach, Michael R.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe

2014-01-01

Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO 2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions. (authors)

Impact of future climate change on wheat production in relation to plant-available water capacity in a semiaridenvironment

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yanmin; Liu, De Li; Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; Zuo, Heping; Yang, Yonghui

2014-02-01

Conceptions encompassing climate change are irreversible rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, increased temperature, and changes in rainfall both in spatial- and temporal-scales worldwide. This will have a major impact on wheat production, particularly if crops are frequently exposed to a sequence, frequency, and intensity of specific weather events like high temperature during growth period. However, the process of wheat response to climate change is complex and compounded by interactions among atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variables, soil, nutrition, and agronomic management. In this study, we use the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)-wheat model, driven by statistically downscaled climate projections of 18 global circulation models (GCMs) under the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 CO2 emission scenario to examine impact on future wheat yields across key wheat growing regions considering different soil types in New South Wales (NSW) of Australia. The response of wheat yield, yield components, and phenology vary across sites and soil types, but yield is closely related to plant available water capacity (PAWC). Results show a decreasing yield trend during the period of 2021-2040 compared to the baseline period of 1961-1990. Across different wheat-growing regions in NSW, grain yield difference in the future period (2021-2040) over the baseline (1961-1990) varies from +3.4 to -14.7 %, and in most sites, grain number is decreased, while grain size is increased in future climate. Reduction of wheat yield is mainly due to shorter growth duration, where average flowering and maturing time are advanced by an average of 11 and 12 days, respectively. In general, larger negative impacts of climate change are exhibited in those sites with higher PAWC. Current wheat cultivars with shorter growing season properties are viable in the future climate, but breading for

The air quality and health co-benefits of alternative post-2020 pathways for achieving peak carbon targets in Jiangsu, China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, M.; Bi, J.; Huang, Y.; Kinney, P. L.

2016-12-01

Jiangsu, which has three national low-carbon pilot cities, is set to be a model province in China for achieving peak carbon targets before 2030. However, according to local planning of responding to climate change, carbon emissions are projected to keep going up before 2020 even the strictest measures are implemented. In other words, innovative measures must be in action after 2020. This work aimed at assessing the air quality and health co-benefits of alternative post-2020 measures to help remove barriers of policy implementation through tying it to local incentives for air quality improvement. To achieve the aim, we select 2010 as baseline year and develop Bussiness As Usual (BAU) and Traditional Carbon Reduction (TCR) scenarios before 2020. Under BAU, only existing climate and air pollution control policies are considered; under TCR, potential climate policies in local planning and existing air pollution control policies are considered. After 2020, integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology and large-scale substitution of renewable energy seem to be two promising pathways for achieving peak carbon targets. Therefore, two additional scenarios (TCR-IGCC and TCR-SRE) are set after 2020. Based on the projections of future energy balances and industrial productions, we estimate the pollutant emissions and simulate PM2.5 and ozone concentrations by 2017, 2020, 2030 and 2050 using CMAQ. Then using health impact assessment approach, the premature deaths are estimated and monetized. Results show that the carbon peak in Jiangsu will be achieved before 2030 only under TCR-IGCC and TCR-SRE scenarios. Under three policy scenarios, Jiangsu's carbon emission control targets would have substantial effects on primary air pollutant emissions far beyond those we estimate would be needed to meet the PM2.5 concentration targets in 2017. Compared with IGCC with CCS, large-scale substitutions of renewable energy bring

The Contribution of Soils to North America's Current and Future Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Thornton, P. E.; Lajtha, K.; Bailey, V. L.; Shrestha, G.; Jastrow, J. D.; Torn, M. S.

2015-12-01

This presentation will cover key aspects of the terrestrial soil carbon cycle in North America and the US for the upcoming State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCRII). SOCCRII seeks to summarize how natural processes and human interactions affect the global carbon cycle, how socio-economic trends affect greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and how ecosystems are influenced by and respond to greenhouse gas emissions, management decisions, and concomitant climate effects. Here, we will summarize the contemporary understanding of carbon stocks, fluxes, and drivers in the soil ecosystem compartment. We will highlight recent advances in modeling the magnitude of soil carbon stocks and fluxes, as well as the importance of remaining uncertainties in predicting soil carbon cycling and its relationship with climate. Attention will be given to the role of uncertainties in predicting future fluxes from soils, and how those uncertainties vary by region and ecosystem. We will also address how climate feedbacks and management decisions can enhance or minimize future climatic effects based on current understanding and observations, and will highlight select research needs to improve our understanding of the balance of carbon in soils in North America.

The TDAQ Baseline Architecture

CERN Multimedia

Wickens, F J

The Trigger-DAQ community is currently busy preparing material for the DAQ, HLT and DCS TDR. Over the last few weeks a very important step has been a series of meetings to complete agreement on the baseline architecture. An overview of the architecture indicating some of the main parameters is shown in figure 1. As reported at the ATLAS Plenary during the February ATLAS week, the main area where the baseline had not yet been agreed was around the Read-Out System (ROS) and details in the DataFlow. The agreed architecture has: Read-Out Links (ROLs) from the RODs using S-Link; Read-Out Buffers (ROB) sited near the RODs, mounted in a chassis - today assumed to be a PC, using PCI bus at least for configuration, control and monitoring. The baseline assumes data aggregation, in the ROB and/or at the output (which could either be over a bus or in the network). Optimization of the data aggregation will be made in the coming months, but the current model has each ROB card receiving input from 4 ROLs, and 3 such c...

The impact of future carbon prices on CCS investment for power generation in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Ning; Parsons, John E.; Polenske, Karen R.

2013-01-01

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China is currently discussed extensively but few in-depth analyses focusing on economics are observed. In this study, we answer two related questions about the development of CCS and power generation technologies in China: (1) what is the breakeven carbon-dioxide price to justify CCS installation investment for Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) and pulverized coal (PC) power plants, and, (2) what are the risks associated with investment for CCS. To answer these questions, we build a net present value model for IGCC and PC plants with capacity of 600 MW, with assumptions best representing the current technologies in China. Then, we run a sensitivity analysis of capital costs and fuel costs to reveal their impact on the carbon price, and analyze the risk on investment return caused by the carbon price volatility. Our study shows that in China, a breakeven carbon price of $61/tonne is required to justify investment on CCS for PC plants, and $72/tonne for IGCC plants. In this analysis, we also advise investors on the impact of capital and fuel costs on the carbon price and suggest optimal timing for CCS investment. - Highlights: ► We collect data on CCS and power generation which best represents technologies and costs in China. ► We model power plants' net present value to find the breakeven carbon prices. ► IGCC needs $72 per tonne to breakeven while PC requires $61 in China. ► Capital and fuel costs impact the carbon prices noticeably. ► We also examine the sensitivity, impact on return and time for investment

An explanation of carbon emission markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

After having outlined the necessity to drastically reduce anthropic carbon emissions, and discussed how to associate standards, taxes and quota markets, the authors describe how carbon emission markets have emerged: the Kyoto protocol, the emission trade scheme (ETS) of the European Union, other carbon markets (existing or in preparation). They introduce and present four pillars of carbon emission markets: the allocation process, the reliability of emission measurement and control, market records and transparency, and introduction of flexibility. They examine the possibility of success in the development of a greenhouse gas emission market. The authors discuss the problems raised by a design of carbon markets by government and their use by private actors, how to connect existing or future regional carbon markets, the integration of forest and agriculture through new compensatory mechanisms, how to face carbon leaks by widening carbon markets

Carbon nanotubes for coherent spintronics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kuemmeth, Ferdinand; Churchill, H O H; Herring, P K

2010-01-01

Carbon nanotubes bridge the molecular and crystalline quantum worlds, and their extraordinary electronic, mechanical and optical properties have attracted enormous attention from a broad scientific community. We review the basic principles of fabricating spin-electronic devices based on individual......, electrically-gated carbon nanotubes, and present experimental efforts to understand their electronic and nuclear spin degrees of freedom, which in the future may enable quantum applications....

Robust extraction of baseline signal of atmospheric trace species using local regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. F. Ruckstuhl

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The identification of atmospheric trace species measurements that are representative of well-mixed background air masses is required for monitoring atmospheric composition change at background sites. We present a statistical method based on robust local regression that is well suited for the selection of background measurements and the estimation of associated baseline curves. The bootstrap technique is applied to calculate the uncertainty in the resulting baseline curve. The non-parametric nature of the proposed approach makes it a very flexible data filtering method. Application to carbon monoxide (CO measured from 1996 to 2009 at the high-alpine site Jungfraujoch (Switzerland, 3580 m a.s.l., and to measurements of 1,1-difluoroethane (HFC-152a from Jungfraujoch (2000 to 2009 and Mace Head (Ireland, 1995 to 2009 demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of the proposed approach.

The determined average annual change of CO at Jungfraujoch for the 1996 to 2009 period as estimated from filtered annual mean CO concentrations is −2.2 ± 1.1 ppb yr⁻¹. For comparison, the linear trend of unfiltered CO measurements at Jungfraujoch for this time period is −2.9 ± 1.3 ppb yr⁻¹.

Future orientation and smoking cessation: secondary analysis of data from a smoking cessation trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Beenstock, Jane; Lindson-Hawley, Nicola; Aveyard, Paul; Adams, Jean

2014-10-01

To examine the association between future orientation (how individuals consider and value outcomes in the future) and smoking cessation at 4 weeks and 6 months post quit-date in individuals enrolled in a smoking cessation study. Cohort analysis of randomized controlled trial data. UK primary care. Adults aged ≥18 years smoking ≥15 cigarettes daily, prepared to quit in the next 2 weeks. Future orientation was measured prior to quitting and at 4 weeks post-quitting using the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale. Smoking cessation at 4 weeks and 6 months was confirmed biochemically. Those lost to follow-up were assumed to not be abstinent. Potential confounders adjusted for were: age, gender, educational attainment, nicotine dependence and longest previous period quit. A total of 697 participants provided data at baseline; 422 provided information on future orientation at 4 weeks. There was no evidence of an association between future orientation at baseline and abstinence at 4 weeks [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.05, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.80-1.38] or 6 months (aOR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.60-1.20). There was no change in future orientation from baseline to 4 weeks and no evidence that the change differed between those who were and were not quit at 4 weeks (adjusted regression coefficient = -0.04, 95% CI = -0.16 to 0.08). In smokers who are prepared to quit in the next 2 weeks, the extent of future orientation is unlikely to be a strong predictor of quitting over 4 weeks or 6 months and any increase in future orientation following quitting is likely to be small. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Climate constraints on the carbon intensity of economic growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rozenberg, Julie; Narloch, Ulf; Hallegatte, Stephane; Davis, Steven J

2015-01-01

Development and climate goals together constrain the carbon intensity of production. Using a simple and transparent model that represents committed CO 2 emissions (future emissions expected to come from existing capital), we explore the carbon intensity of production related to new capital required for different temperature targets across several thousand scenarios. Future pathways consistent with the 2 °C target which allow for continued gross domestic product growth require early action to reduce carbon intensity of new production, and either (i) a short lifetime of energy and industry capital (e.g. early retrofit of coal power plants), or (ii) large negative emissions after 2050 (i.e. rapid development and dissemination of carbon capture and sequestration). To achieve the 2 °C target, half of the scenarios indicate a carbon intensity of new production between 33 and 73 g CO 2 /$—much lower than the global average today, at 360 g CO 2 /$. The average lifespan of energy capital (especially power plants), and industry capital, are critical because they commit emissions far into the future and reduce the budget for new capital emissions. Each year of lifetime added to existing, carbon intensive capital, decreases the carbon intensity of new production required to meet a 2 °C carbon budget by 1.0–1.5 g CO 2 /$, and each year of delaying the start of mitigation decreases the required CO 2 intensity of new production by 20–50 g CO 2 /$. Constraints on the carbon intensity of new production under a 3 °C target are considerably relaxed relative to the 2 °C target, but remain daunting in comparison to the carbon intensity of the global economy today. (letter)

Pathways for implementing REDD+. Experiences from carbon markets and communities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhu, X.; Ravnkilde Moeller, L.; Lopez, T. De; Romero, M.Z.

2011-07-01

This issue of Carbon Market Perspectives on 'Pathways for implementing REDD+: Experience from carbon markets and communities' discusses the role of carbon markets in scaling up investments for REDD+ in developing countries. Nine articles authored by experienced negotiators on REDD+, carbon market actors, project developers and other leading experts share experiences and make suggestions on the key elements of a future international REDD+ regime: Architecture and underlying principles, measuring, reporting and verification (MRV), private-sector involvement, the rights of indigenous people and local communities, biodiversity conservation and environmental integrity. The articles are grouped under three main topics: the lessons of existing REDD+ projects; the future REDD+ regime and the role of carbon markets; and experiences and ideas about the involvement of indigenous people and local communities. (LN)

Environmental baseline study of the Los Medanos Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) project area of New Mexico: a progress report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wolfe, H.G. (ed.)

1977-09-01

Exploratory drilling operations are being conducted for a Waste Isolation Pilot Program in southeastern New Mexico. Prior to the establishment of such a program, an environmental study was initiated to serve as a baseline for evaluation of the impact of future activities in the Los Medanos area. Much of this area has been influenced by human activities over a long period, and hence the baseline data only reflects the present, relatively disturbed condition of the environment. The study covers air resources, soils, and biotic resources. 23 tables, 6 figs. (DLC)

Carbon used in electrotechnology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coulon, M.; Reynvaan, C.; Maire, J.

1994-01-01

The carbon is the essential or single component of several materials. After having recalled the general properties of carbon and graphite some traditional processes of fabrication are described and some new products are studied then we tackle the applications with electric current: -electrodes in the electric piles where we use the carbon chemical inertia -coals of electric arc where we use the refractory properties and the low resistivity of graphite -Joule effect where we work on an enough wide field of material resistivity -electric fixed or sliding contacts where in addition to the refractory properties it is its unweldability which makes it indispensable particularly in the brooms for electric motors. The future is good for carbon and its compounds particularly for the new discovered fullerenes, spheric molecules of carbon, the properties of which are bad known (supraconductivity, lubrication, energy storage). 21 refs., 26 figs., 14 tab

Coal and carbon dioxide reduction: What does it mean for our power production future?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weinstein, R.E.

1994-01-01

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is not a pollutant. It is a limiting nutrient, like water and oxygen, necessary for life to exist on earth. It helps retain heat from the sun keeping the earth comfortably warm. Though scientifically controversial, some segments of the public are nonetheless concerned that increasing amounts of carbon dioxide (and other gases) emitted by mankind's activity may contribute to what they perceive as mankind-induced global warming trend, the so-called open-quotes greenhouse effect.close quotes The 1992 Earth Summit in Rio De Janeiro addressed this, and in response, the U.S. signed agreements to roll back its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels. Carbon dioxide is of concern as a greenhouse gas because of the quantity produced by the combustion of fossil fuels. Because coal is mostly carbon, when burned, it produces more carbon dioxide per Btu of energy released of any of the common fossil fuels. With 54 percent of our electricity generated by coal, capping carbon dioxide emissions without disrupting the economy will be no mean feat for the United States. The U.S. also relies on its huge reserves for its energy independence, so altering policies that affect coal use must be carefully assessed. A growing population and economy demand more energy. One can use other fuels than coal: natural gas releases only 56 percent the carbon dioxide coal does, and nuclear energy produces none. One can also employ higher efficiency coal plants to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide produced for a given power output. The highest efficiency coal units projected are magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) plants the focus of this conference which are projected to produce electricity at 60 percent energy efficiency, extraordinary by today's standards. Does this mean that the Rio de Janeiro agreement then encourages the earlier introduction of MHD and other emerging high efficiency coal technologies?

Energy implications of future stabilization of atmospheric CO2 content

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffert, M.I.; Jain, A.K.

1998-01-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for ''stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system...''. A standard baseline scenario that assumes no policy intervention to limit greenhouse-gas emissions has 10 TW (10 x 10 12 watts) of carbon-emission-free power being produced by the year 2050, equivalent to the power provided by all today's energy sources combined. Here we employ a carbon-cycle/energy model to estimate the carbon-emission-free power needed for various atmospheric CO 2 stabilization scenarios. We find that CO 2 stabilization with continued economic growth will require innovative, cost-effective and carbon-emission-free technologies that can provide additional tens of terawatts of primary power in the coming decades, and certainly by the middle of the twenty-first century, even with sustained improvement in the economic productivity of primary energy. (author)

What You Should Know About Carbon Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Mansanet-Bataller

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Since the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, carbon trading has been in continuous expansion. In this paper, we review the origins of carbon trading in order to understand how carbon trading works in Europe and, specifically, the functioning of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS and the workings of several spot, futures and options markets where European Union Allowances are traded. As well, the linking of the EU ETS with the other United Nations carbon markets is also studied.

The GLOBE Carbon Project: Integrating the Science of Carbon Cycling and Climate Change into K-12 Classrooms.

Science.gov (United States)

Ollinger, S. V.; Silverberg, S.; Albrechtova, J.; Freuder, R.; Gengarelly, L.; Martin, M.; Randolph, G.; Schloss, A.

2007-12-01

The global carbon cycle is a key regulator of the Earth's climate and is central to the normal function of ecological systems. Because rising atmospheric CO2 is the principal cause of climate change, understanding how ecosystems cycle and store carbon has become an extremely important issue. In recent years, the growing importance of the carbon cycle has brought it to the forefront of both science and environmental policy. The need for better scientific understanding has led to establishment of numerous research programs, such as the North American Carbon Program (NACP), which seeks to understand controls on carbon cycling under present and future conditions. Parallel efforts are greatly needed to integrate state-of-the-art science on the carbon cycle and its importance to climate with education and outreach efforts that help prepare society to make sound decisions on energy use, carbon management and climate change adaptation. Here, we present a new effort that joins carbon cycle scientists with the International GLOBE Education program to develop carbon cycle activities for K-12 classrooms. The GLOBE Carbon Cycle project is focused on bringing cutting edge research and research techniques in the field of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling into the classroom. Students will collect data about their school field site through existing protocols of phenology, land cover and soils as well as new protocols focused on leaf traits, and ecosystem growth and change. They will also participate in classroom activities to understand carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, these will include plant- a-plant experiments, hands-on demonstrations of various concepts, and analysis of collected data. In addition to the traditional GLOBE experience, students will have the opportunity to integrate their data with emerging and expanding technologies including global and local carbon cycle models and remote sensing toolkits. This program design will allow students to explore research

Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Tang

Full Text Available Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline

The surface interactions of a near-neutral carbon nanoparticle tracer with calcite

KAUST Repository

Li, Yan Vivian; Cathles, Lawrence M.

2016-01-01

A new class of nearly charge-neutral carbon-cored nanoparticle tracers are remarkably non-interactive with solid surfaces and could provide a valuable baseline for diverse hydrological and environmental studies of subsurface flow and particle

Inland waters and their role in the carbon cycle of Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Stackpoole, Sarah M.; Butman, David E.; Clow, David W.; Verdin, Kristine L.; Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Genet, Hélène; Striegl, Robert G.

2017-01-01

The magnitude of Alaska (AK) inland waters carbon (C) fluxes is likely to change in the future due to amplified climate warming impacts on the hydrology and biogeochemical processes in high latitude regions. Although current estimates of major aquatic C fluxes represent an essential baseline against which future change can be compared, a comprehensive assessment for AK has not yet been completed. To address this gap, we combined available data sets and applied consistent methodologies to estimate river lateral C export to the coast, river and lake carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions, and C burial in lakes for the six major hydrologic regions in the state. Estimated total aquatic C flux for AK was 41 Tg C/yr. Major components of this total flux, in Tg C/yr, were 18 for river lateral export, 17 for river CO2 emissions, and 8 for lake CO2 emissions. Lake C burial offset these fluxes by 2 Tg C/yr. River and lake CH4 emissions were 0.03 and 0.10 Tg C/yr, respectively. The Southeast and South central regions had the highest temperature, precipitation, terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), and C yields (fluxes normalized to land area) were 77 and 42 g C·m−2·yr−1, respectively. Lake CO2 emissions represented over half of the total aquatic flux from the Southwest (37 g C·m−2·yr−1). The North Slope, Northwest, and Yukon regions had lesser yields (11, 15, and 17 g C·m2·yr−1), but these estimates may be the most vulnerable to future climate change, because of the heightened sensitivity of arctic and boreal ecosystems to intensified warming. Total aquatic C yield for AK was 27 g C·m−2·yr−1, which represented 16% of the estimated terrestrial NPP. Freshwater ecosystems represent a significant conduit for C loss, and a more comprehensive view of land-water-atmosphere interactions is necessary to predict future climate change impacts on the Alaskan ecosystem C balance.

Predictive value of isolated DLCO reduction in systemic sclerosis patients without cardio-pulmonary involvement at baseline

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Colaci

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Impaired diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO was frequently observed in systemic sclerosis (SSc patients, generally related to the presence of interstitial lung disease (ILD and/or pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH. However, in clinical practice abnormally low DLCO values may be found also in the absence of these SSc complications. The objective was to investigate the prospective clinical relevance of isolated DLCO reduction at baseline in SSc patients. Ninety-seven SSc female patients (age at the diagnosis: 51.3±14.5 years; disease duration: 10.4±6.6 years; limited/diffuse skin subsets: 92/5, without any clinical, radiological (high resolution computed tomography, and echocardiographic manifestations of ILD or PAH at baseline, nor other lung or heart diseases able to affect DLCO, were recruited at our Rheumatology Centre. Patients with DLCO <55% (15 patients; group A were compared with those with normal DLCO (82 patients; group B, at baseline and at the end of follow-up. At baseline, patients of group A showed significantly higher percentage of anticentromere autoantibodies compared to group B (13/15, 86.6% vs 48/82, 58.5%; p=0.044. More interestingly, at the end of long-lasting clinical follow-up (11.6±6.7 years, pre-capillary PAH (right heart catheterization solely developed in some patients of group A (3/15, 20% vs 0/82; p=0.003. In SSc patients, the presence at baseline of isolated, marked DLCO reduction (<55% of predicted and serum anticentromere autoantibodies might characterize a peculiar SSc subset that may precede the development of PAH. Therefore, careful clinical follow-up of patients with isolated moderate-severe DLCO reduction should be mandatory.

Carbon tax scenarios and their effects on the Irish energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Cosmo, Valeria; Hyland, Marie

2013-01-01

In this paper we use annual time series data from 1960 to 2008 to estimate the long run price and income elasticities underlying energy demand in Ireland. The Irish economy is divided into five sectors: residential, industrial, commercial, agricultural and transport, and separate energy demand equations are estimated for all sectors. Energy demand is broken down by fuel type, and price and income elasticities are estimated for the primary fuels in the Irish fuel mix. Using the estimated price and income elasticities we forecast Irish sectoral energy demand out to 2025. The share of electricity in the Irish fuel mix is predicted to grow over time, as the share of carbon intensive fuels such as coal, oil and peat, falls. The share of electricity in total energy demand grows most in the industrial and commercial sectors, while oil remains an important fuel in the residential and transport sectors. Having estimated the baseline forecasts, two different carbon tax scenarios are imposed and the impact of these scenarios on energy demand, carbon dioxide emissions, and government revenue is assessed. If it is assumed that the level of the carbon tax will track the futures price of carbon under the EU-ETS, the carbon tax will rise from €21.50 per tonne CO 2 in 2012 (the first year forecasted) to €41 in 2025. Results show that under this scenario total emissions would be reduced by approximately 861,000 tonnes of CO 2 in 2025 relative to a zero carbon tax scenario, and that such a tax would generate €1.1 billion in revenue in the same year. We also examine a high tax scenario under which emissions reductions and revenue generated will be greater. Finally, in order to assess the macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax, the carbon tax scenarios were run in HERMES, the ESRI's medium-term macroeconomic model. The results from HERMES show that, a carbon tax of €41 per tonne CO 2 would lead to a 0.21% contraction in GDP, and a 0.08% reduction in employment. A higher carbon

Baseline Testing of The EV Global E-Bike

Science.gov (United States)

Eichenberg, Dennis J.; Kolacz, John S.; Tavernelli, Paul F.

2001-01-01

The NASA John H. Glenn Research Center initiated baseline testing of the EV Global E-Bike as a way to reduce pollution in urban areas, reduce fossil fuel consumption and reduce Operating costs for transportation systems. The work was done Linder the Hybrid Power Management (HPM) Program, which includes the Hybrid Electric Transit Bus (HETB). The E-Bike is a state of the art, ground up, hybrid electric bicycle. Unique features of the vehicle's power system include the use of an efficient, 400 W. electric hub motor and a 7-speed derailleur system that permits operation as fully electric, fully pedal, or a combination of the two. Other innovative features, such as regenerative braking through ultracapacitor energy storage are planned. Regenerative braking recovers much of the kinetic energy of the vehicle during deceleration. The E-Bike is an inexpensive approach to advance the state of the art in hybrid technology in a practical application. The project transfers space technology to terrestrial use via nontraditional partners, and provides power system data valuable for future space applications. A description of the E-bike, the results of performance testing, and future vehicle development plans is the subject of this report. The report concludes that the E-Bike provides excellent performance, and that the implementation of ultracapacitors in the power system can provide significant performance improvements.

Development strategy research of low-carbon tourist city

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Xiaohong

2017-04-01

Construction of low-carbon tourist city has become a strategic choice for the development of city construction in our country, becoming the direction and goal of future city development in China. In this paper, the development strategy of low-carbon tourist city is put forward from the aspects of building low-carbon tourism culture, strengthening and perfecting the relevant rules and regulations, establishing and perfecting the decision-making management mechanism of low-carbon tourist city construction, establishing accurate, timely, efficient and comprehensive ecological environment monitoring and supervision network, building economical resource utilization system, strengthening science and technology supporting of low-carbon city construction, establishing low-carbon tourism scenic spot, low-carbon community or low-carbon demonstration area, etc.

Long Baseline Observatory (LBO)

Data.gov (United States)

Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Long Baseline Observatory (LBO) comprises ten radio telescopes spanning 5,351 miles. It's the world's largest, sharpest, dedicated telescope array. With an eye...

Present and future oscillation experiments at reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mikaehlyan, L.A.

2001-01-01

A report is presented on recent progress and developments (since the NANP'99 Conference) in the current and future long baseline (∼100 - 800 km) oscillation experiments at reactors. These experiments, under certain assumptions, can fully reconstruct the internal mass structure of the electron neutrino and provide a laboratory test of solar and atmospheric neutrino problems

Carbon sequestration research and development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reichle, Dave; Houghton, John; Kane, Bob; Ekmann, Jim; and others

1999-12-31

Predictions of global energy use in the next century suggest a continued increase in carbon emissions and rising concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) in the atmosphere unless major changes are made in the way we produce and use energy--in particular, how we manage carbon. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts in its 1995 ''business as usual'' energy scenario that future global emissions of CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere will increase from 7.4 billion tonnes of carbon (GtC) per year in 1997 to approximately 26 GtC/year by 2100. IPCC also projects a doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration by the middle of next century and growing rates of increase beyond. Although the effects of increased CO{sub 2} levels on global climate are uncertain, many scientists agree that a doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations could have a variety of serious environmental consequences. The goal of this report is to identify key areas for research and development (R&D) that could lead to an understanding of the potential for future use of carbon sequestration as a major tool for managing carbon emissions. Under the leadership of DOE, researchers from universities, industry, other government agencies, and DOE national laboratories were brought together to develop the technical basis for conceiving a science and technology road map. That effort has resulted in this report, which develops much of the information needed for the road map.

Carbon nanofiber vs. carbon microparticles as modifiers of glassy carbon and gold electrodes applied in electrochemical sensing of NADH.

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez, Briza; Del Valle, Manel; Alegret, Salvador; Merkoçi, Arben

2007-12-15

Carbon materials (CMs), such as carbon nanotubes (CNTs), carbon nanofibers (CNFs), and carbon microparticles (CMPs) are used as doping materials for electrochemical sensors. The efficiency of these materials (either before or after acidic treatments) while being used as electrocatalysts in electrochemical sensors is discussed for beta-nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NADH) detection using cyclic voltammetry (CV). The sensitivity of the electrodes (glassy carbon (GC) and gold (Au)) modified with both treated and untreated materials have been deeply studied. The response efficiencies of the GC and Au electrodes modified with CNF and CMP, using dimethylformamide (DMF) as dispersing agent are significantly different due to the peculiar physical and chemical characteristics of each doping material. Several differences between the electrocatalytic activities of CMs modified electrodes upon NADH oxidation have been observed. The CNF film promotes better the electron transfer of NADH minimizing the oxidation potential at +0.352 V. Moreover higher currents for the NADH oxidation peak have been observed for these electrodes. The shown differences in the electrochemical reactivities of CNF and CMP modified electrodes should be with interest for future applications in biosensors.

Carbon nanomaterial based electrochemical sensors for biogenic amines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Xiao; He, Xiulan; Li, Fangping; Fei, Junjie; Feng, Bo; Ding, Yonglan

2013-01-01

This review describes recent advances in the use of carbon nanomaterials for electroanalytical detection of biogenic amines (BAs). It starts with a short introduction into carbon nanomaterials such as carbon nanotubes, graphene, nanodiamonds, carbon nanofibers, fullerenes, and their composites. Next, electrochemical sensing schemes are discussed for various BAs including dopamine, serotonin, epinephrine, norepinephrine, tyramine, histamine and putrescine. Examples are then given for methods for simultaneous detection of various BAs. Finally, we discuss the current and future challenges of carbon nanomaterial-based electrochemical sensors for BAs. The review contains 175 references. (author)

Comparison of efficacy of an arginine-calcium carbonate-MFP toothpaste to a calcium carbonate-MFP toothpaste in controlling supragingival calculus formation and gingivitis: a 6-month clinical study.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yiming; Lee, Sean; Stephens, Joni; Mateo, Luis R; Zhang, Yun Po; DeVizio, William

2012-02-01

To investigate whether the long-term use (6 months) of an arginine-calcium carbonate-MFP toothpaste would affect calculus formation and/or gingivitis when compared to a calcium carbonate-MFP toothpaste. This was a double-blind clinical study. Eligible adult subjects (120) entered a 2-month pre-test phase of the study. After receiving an evaluation of oral tissue and a dental prophylaxis, the subjects were provided with a regular fluoride toothpaste, a soft-bristled adult toothbrush with instructions to brush their teeth for 1-minute twice daily (morning and evening) for 2 months. The subjects were then examined for baseline calculus using the Volpe-Manhold Calculus Index (VMI) and gingivitis using the Löe-Silness Gingival Index (GI), along with an oral tissue examination. Qualifying subjects were randomized to two treatment groups: (1) Colgate Sensitive Pro-Relief toothpaste containing 8.0% arginine, 1450 ppm MFP and calcium carbonate (Test group), or (2) Colgate Cavity Protection toothpaste containing 1450 ppm MFP and calcium carbonate (Control group). Subjects were stratified by the VMI score and gender. After a dental prophylaxis (VMI=0), the subjects entered a 6-month test phase. Each received the assigned toothpaste and a soft-bristled adult toothbrush for home use with instructions of brushing teeth for 1 minute twice daily (morning and evening). The examinations of VMI, Löe-Silness GI and oral tissues were conducted after 3 and 6 months. Prior to each study visit, subjects refrained from brushing their teeth as well as eating and drinking for 4 hours. 99 subjects complied with the study protocol and completed the 6-month test phase. No within-treatment comparison was performed for the VMI because it was brought down to zero after the prophylaxis at the baseline of the test phase. For the Löe-Silness GI, subjects of the Test group exhibited a significant difference from baseline at the 3- and 6-month examinations. The 3-month Löe-Silness GI of the Control

Probing Neutrino Properties with Long-Baseline Neutrino Beams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marino, Alysia

2015-01-01

This final report on an Early Career Award grant began in April 15, 2010 and concluded on April 14, 2015. Alysia Marino's research is focussed on making precise measurements of neutrino properties using intense accelerator-generated neutrino beams. As a part of this grant, she is collaborating on the Tokai-to-Kamioka (T2K) long-baseline neutrino experiment, currently taking data in Japan, and on the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) design effort for a future Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) in the US. She is also a member of the NA61/SHINE particle production experiment at CERN, but as that effort is supported by other funds, it will not be discussed further here. T2K was designed to search for the disappearance of muon neutrinos (?_?) and the appearance of electron neutrinos (?_e), using a beam of muon neutrino beam that travels 295 km across Japan towards the Super-Kamiokande detector. In 2011 T2K first reported indications of ?_e appearance, a previously unobserved mode of neutrino oscillations. In the past year, T2K has published a combined analysis of ?_? disappearance and ?_e appearance, and began collecting taking data with a beam of anti-neutrinos, instead of neutrinos, to search for hints of violation of the CP symmetry of the universe. The proposed DUNE experiment has similar physics goals to T2K, but will be much more sensitive due to its more massive detectors and new higher-intensity neutrino beam. This effort will be very high-priority particle physics project in the US over the next decade.

Hanford Site technical baseline database. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Porter, P.E.

1995-01-01

This report lists the Hanford specific files (Table 1) that make up the Hanford Site Technical Baseline Database. Table 2 includes the delta files that delineate the differences between this revision and revision 0 of the Hanford Site Technical Baseline Database. This information is being managed and maintained on the Hanford RDD-100 System, which uses the capabilities of RDD-100, a systems engineering software system of Ascent Logic Corporation (ALC). This revision of the Hanford Site Technical Baseline Database uses RDD-100 version 3.0.2.2 (see Table 3). Directories reflect those controlled by the Hanford RDD-100 System Administrator. Table 4 provides information regarding the platform. A cassette tape containing the Hanford Site Technical Baseline Database is available

Carbon-nanotube-based liquids: a new class of nanomaterials and their applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phan, Ngoc Minh; Nguyen, Manh Hong; Phan, Hong Khoi; Bui, Hung Thang

2014-01-01

Carbon-nanotube-based liquids—a new class of nanomaterials—have shown many interesting properties and distinctive features offering unprecedented potential for many applications. This paper summarizes the recent progress on the study of the preparation, characterization and properties of carbon-nanotube-based liquids including so-called nanofluids, nanolubricants and different kinds of nanosolutions containing multi-walled carbon nanotubes/single-walled carbon nanotubes/graphene. A broad range of current and future applications of these nanomaterials in the fields of energy saving, power electronic and optoelectronic devices, biotechnology and agriculture are presented. The paper also identifies challenges and opportunities for future research. (paper)

The role of urbanization in the global carbon cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Galina eChurkina

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Urban areas account for more than 70% of CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels. Urban expansion in tropics is responsible for 5% of the annual emissions from land use change. Here I show that the effect of urbanization on the global carbon cycle extends beyond these emissions. I quantify the contribution of urbanization to the major carbon fluxes and pools globally and identify gaps crucial for predicting the evolution of the carbon cycle in the future. Urban residents currently control ~22 (12-40 % of the land carbon uptake (112 PgC/yr and ~24 (15-39 % of the carbon emissions (117 PgC/yr from land globally. Urbanization resulted in the creation of new carbon pools on land such as buildings (~6.7 PgC and landfills (~30 PgC. Together these pools store 1.6 (±0.3 % of the total vegetation and soil carbon pools globally. The creation and maintenance of these new pools has been associated with high emissions of CO2, which are currently better understood than the processes associated with the dynamics of these pools and accompanying uptake of carbon. Predictions of the future trajectories of the global carbon cycle will require a much better understanding of how urban development affects the carbon cycle over the long term.

Space station evolution: Planning for the future

Science.gov (United States)

Diaz, Alphonso V.; Askins, Barbara S.

1987-06-01

The need for permanently manned presence in space has been recognized by the United States and its international partners for many years. The development of this capability was delayed due to the concurrent recognition that reusable earth-to-orbit transportation was also needed and should be developed first. While the decision to go ahead with a permanently manned Space Station was on hold, requirements for the use of the Station were accumulating as ground-based research and the data from unmanned spacecraft sparked the imagination of both scientists and entrepreneurs. Thus, by the time of the Space Station implementation decision in the early 1980's, a variety of disciplines, with a variety of requirements, needed to be accommodated on one Space Station. Additional future requirements could be forecast for advanced missions that were still in the early planning stages. The logical response was the development of a multi-purpose Space Station with the ability to evolve on-orbit to new capabilities as required by user needs and national or international decisions, i.e., to build an evolutionary Space Station. Planning for evolution is conducted in parallel with the design and development of the baseline Space Station. Evolution planning is a strategic management process to facilitate change and protect future decisions. The objective is not to forecast the future, but to understand the future options and the implications of these on today's decisions. The major actions required now are: (1) the incorporation of evolution provisions (hooks and scars) in the baseline Space Station; and (2) the initiation of an evolution advanced development program.

Space station evolution: Planning for the future

Science.gov (United States)

Diaz, Alphonso V.; Askins, Barbara S.

1987-01-01

The need for permanently manned presence in space has been recognized by the United States and its international partners for many years. The development of this capability was delayed due to the concurrent recognition that reusable earth-to-orbit transportation was also needed and should be developed first. While the decision to go ahead with a permanently manned Space Station was on hold, requirements for the use of the Station were accumulating as ground-based research and the data from unmanned spacecraft sparked the imagination of both scientists and entrepreneurs. Thus, by the time of the Space Station implementation decision in the early 1980's, a variety of disciplines, with a variety of requirements, needed to be accommodated on one Space Station. Additional future requirements could be forecast for advanced missions that were still in the early planning stages. The logical response was the development of a multi-purpose Space Station with the ability to evolve on-orbit to new capabilities as required by user needs and national or international decisions, i.e., to build an evolutionary Space Station. Planning for evolution is conducted in parallel with the design and development of the baseline Space Station. Evolution planning is a strategic management process to facilitate change and protect future decisions. The objective is not to forecast the future, but to understand the future options and the implications of these on today's decisions. The major actions required now are: (1) the incorporation of evolution provisions (hooks and scars) in the baseline Space Station; and (2) the initiation of an evolution advanced development program.

Activated carbon from biomass

Science.gov (United States)

Manocha, S.; Manocha, L. M.; Joshi, Parth; Patel, Bhavesh; Dangi, Gaurav; Verma, Narendra

2013-06-01

Activated carbon are unique and versatile adsorbents having extended surface area, micro porous structure, universal adsorption effect, high adsorption capacity and high degree of surface reactivity. Activated carbons are synthesized from variety of materials. Most commonly used on a commercial scale are cellulosic based precursors such as peat, coal, lignite wood and coconut shell. Variation occurs in precursors in terms of structure and carbon content. Coir having very low bulk density and porous structure is found to be one of the valuable raw materials for the production of highly porous activated carbon and other important factor is its high carbon content. Exploration of good low cost and non conventional adsorbent may contribute to the sustainability of the environment and offer promising benefits for the commercial purpose in future. Carbonization of biomass was carried out in a horizontal muffle furnace. Both carbonization and activation were performed in inert nitrogen atmosphere in one step to enhance the surface area and to develop interconnecting porosity. The types of biomass as well as the activation conditions determine the properties and the yield of activated carbon. Activated carbon produced from biomass is cost effective as it is easily available as a waste biomass. Activated carbon produced by combination of chemical and physical activation has higher surface area of 2442 m2/gm compared to that produced by physical activation (1365 m2/gm).

Ecological risk assessments for the baseline condition for the Port Hope and Port Granby Projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hart, D.R.; Kleb, H.

2006-01-01

Baseline ecological risk assessments were completed in and around the areas where cleanup of low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) and marginally contaminated soil (MCS) is planned under the Port Hope Area Initiative (PHAI). Both aquatic and terrestrial environments were assessed, in the vicinity of the proposed waste management facilities near Welcome and Port Granby, in locations potentially influenced by LLRW and MCS that will be cleaned up in future, and in reference locations that are not potentially influenced. The calculated doses and risk quotients suggest potential radiation effects for pre-cleanup benthic invertebrates in Port Hope Harbour, for any ducks feeding exclusively in this area, and for soil invertebrates in some other waste sites. In addition, risk quotients suggest potential baseline effects from some elements, particularly uranium and arsenic, in localized areas that are influenced by LLRW and MCS. (author)

Urbanization and the Carbon Cycle: Synthesis of Ongoing Research

Science.gov (United States)

Gurney, K. R.; Duren, R. M.; Hutyra, L.; Ehleringer, J. R.; Patarasuk, R.; Song, Y.; Huang, J.; Davis, K.; Kort, E. A.; Shepson, P. B.; Turnbull, J. C.; Lauvaux, T.; Rao, P.; Eldering, A.; Miller, C. E.; Wofsy, S.; McKain, K.; Mendoza, D. L.; Lin, J. C.; Sweeney, C.; Miles, N. L.; Richardson, S.; Cambaliza, M. O. L.

2015-12-01

Given the explosive growth in urbanization and its dominant role in current and future global greenhouse gas emissions, urban areas have received increasing research attention from the carbon cycle science community. The emerging focus is driven by the increasingly dense atmospheric observing capabilities - ground and space-based - in addition to the rising profile of cities within international climate change policymaking. Dominated by anthropogenic emissions, urban carbon cycle research requires a cross-disciplinary perspective with contributions from disciplines such as engineering, economics, social theory, and atmospheric science. We review the recent results from a sample of the active urban carbon research efforts including the INFLUX experiment (Indianapolis), the Megacity carbon project (Los Angeles), Salt Lake City, and Boston. Each of these efforts represent unique approaches in pursuit of different scientific and policy questions and assist in setting priorities for future research. From top-down atmospheric measurement systems to bottom-up estimation, these research efforts offer a view of the challenges and opportunities in urban carbon cycle research.